Tropical Storms

Current TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .

TROPICAL STORMS 2007 -
11/15/07 -
Cyclone GUBA was 371 nmi N of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone LEE was 1038 nmi SSW of George Town, Malaysia.
Cyclone SIDR was 288 nmi S of Calcutta, India.

BANGLADESH - The coastal districts of Bangladesh have been put on storm alert as a severe cyclone heads in across the Bay of Bengal. Operations have been suspended at the main ports of Mongla and Chittagong, and people are being moved away from high-risk areas. With winds of 200km an hour, the cyclone - expected to make landfall around 0800 GMT - may also affect eastern India and the west coast of Burma. Thousands of families have been evacuated from their homes in over a dozen coastal districts of Bangladesh. Bangladesh meteorological department officials said they feared the cyclone may also trigger tidal surges up to 10ft (over three metres) in some areas. Southern Bangladesh is often hit by cyclones, but experts say the latest one is a category four storm, the largest so far in the season.
Sidr - "It if hits the coastal area with its present intensity it will be catastrophic."

Tropical Cyclone Guba has become the first cyclone off the North Queensland coast this season and the first to occur in November since 1977. Townsville Bureau of Meteorology said it was UNUSUAL for a cyclone to form so early in the season. "It is unusual although we do start our tropical cyclone season in November. We normally don't name our first cyclone until sometime in December." The tropical cyclone sat about 140km north-east of Lockhart River yesterday afternoon. It was unlikely to hit the coast but residents between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery were being warned to consider contingency plans if the cyclone threat increased. The storm was in ideal conditions to intensify. "The latest movement (about 4.30pm yesterday) is slowly westward toward the Queensland coast. We're not sure of its of movements after that. Conditions are good for its intensification. It's got a very large outflow, which means there's a lot of high cloud associated with it but the destructive area is quite small at the moment because its only a category 1." Guba is expected to develop into a category two by this morning and a category three by Friday.

11/14/07 -
Cyclone 02P was 349 nmi NNE of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone SIDR was 407 nmi WSW of Rangoon, Burma.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - About 100 communities in the Dominican Republic remain inaccessible by land because Tropical Storm Noel destroyed bridges and roads two weeks ago. The discovery of two more bodies Monday raised the nation's death toll from the storm to 87. At least 46 people are still missing and 78,000 remain in temporary shelters. Noel was the deadliest storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, causing at least 144 deaths across the Caribbean. (photo)

Meteorologists' jaws dropped as Hurricane Humberto slammed the Texas shore in the early morning on September 13, 2007. At first just a nameless tropical depression, the storm marshaled 85 mph winds and heavy rains in the blink of an eye, demanding its identity as a category one hurricane. "It made the transition from tropical depression to hurricane within 24 hours right before landfall. It was a RECORD BREAKER." Two years ago, the busy hurricane season of 2005 was also notable for its rapidly intensifying storms. No one knows if this is the start of a trend, but everyone would like to see improvements in forecasting storm intensity. Researchers at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center are making strides toward solving that problem with a new invention called HIRAD, short for Hurricane Imaging Radiometer. HIRAD could take its first trial run on an aircraft as early as the 2009 hurricane season.

11/13/07 -
Cyclone SIDR was 474 nmi SW of Rangoon, Burma.
Tropical depression TAPAH was 543 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal, is explosively intensifying. It is aiming for the worst spot a hurricane could hit - there is no place on Earth where hurricanes have caused more pain, suffering, and death, than the "North Indian Ocean" basin - in essence, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. It looks like this storm is going to strike India or Bangladesh, and that it may be very powerful when it does so. November is a peak month for Bay of Bengal cyclone activity. The Bay of Bengal, compared with the open Pacific Ocean, is a relatively small area. Often cyclones form there but cannot become very intense before hitting land. However, Sidr developed in the open ocean near the Andaman Islands, and has all the time it needs to reach peak intensity without obstruction. "This is a scary, scary hurricane." In November of 1970, the so-called "Bhola Cyclone", by far the deadliest hurricane known to human history, careened up the Bay and struck East Pakistan - nowadays, Bangladesh - at an extreme (though officially unknown) intensity. Because of the low-lying landfall region, the storm's surge traveled very far inland, and the death toll was catastrophic. Estimates range from 300,000 to as high as 500,000. In 1991 came a repeat: This time, a storm officially recognized as a Category 5 struck Bangladesh, killing more than 100,000, and displacing as many as 10 million. And then in 1999, once again: The Orissa Cyclone, a Category 5, struck India, killing 10,000. (satellite photo)
Cyclone Sidr, which is a hurricane of at least Category 3 strength, could track toward Bangladesh. It already packs winds of 120 mph, having intensified rapidly in 12 hours on Monday — but the forecast is mixed for the next several days, with some projections predicting a weakening, and some a strengthening. It has been hard to know exactly how strong the storm is, or where it is headed, because neither the Indian Meteorology Department nor the U.S. Navy are making frequent updates about the progress of the storm. The last word from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was that the storm had rapidly gained in strength, and that it still has the potential to gain additional strength over warm waters before making landfall as a strong hurricane. Another 10 mph gain and it would be a Category 4 monster storm. (projected storm track)
A tropical cyclone advisory issued this morning says intense to very intense convective clouds are seen around the system center. Maximum sustained surface wind speed is 90-100 KTS around the storm center. Sea: PHENOMENAL. The storm is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and intensify.

11/12/07 -
Cyclone 06B was 473 nmi SW of Rangoon, Burma.
Tropical storm 22W was 487 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

AUSTRALIA - weather forecasters are tracking the first tropical low of the cyclone season off far north Queensland. The low is situated between Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands and is heading in a south-westerly direction. The weather system is going to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the region by the middle of the week. "One of the models has it tracking due south and west, moving very, very gradually towards the Torres Strait and through Torres Strait towards Thursday and Friday." The 2007-08 Australian region cyclone season began on November 1, and will end on April 30, 2008.

The short but troubled life of Noel made headlines along the Eastern seaboard over the last two weeks. In South Florida, Noel took a huge bite out of the beaches, removing an estimated 12,000 truckloads of sand. Along the coastline of New England, Noel made history, generating waves 45 feet high along the Georgian Bank, 6 feet higher than those measured during the famous "Perfect Storm" of October 1991. Noel's waves were the HIGHEST RECORDED SINCE ONLINE RECORDS BEGAN in 1984 at the measurement buoy.

11/11/07 -
Cyclone 06B was 465 nmi SSW of Rangoon, Burma.

11/09/07 -
Tropical depression PEIPAH was 259 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam.

The typhoon heading for Vietnam has weakened before reaching the central coast but was still expected to spew heavy rain today.

Hurricane Noel's remnant surface low pressure center appears to have reformed over eastern Greenland, and the system came across northwest Europe Wednesday. That paved the way for the next, stronger system which was upstream. The table was set for this by an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure aloft in mid-high latitudes. It was associated with ex-Noel's track, way north to Greenland, and now with a vigorous disturbance slicing southeastward. The tight "pressure gradient" and long fetch of wind over the water headed all the way down the length of the North Sea. Thursday afternoon and evening, 10-minute sustained winds of 60-65+ mph were measured on oil platforms in the northern North Sea along with significant wave heights as high as 30 feet. That's why there are warnings for coastal flooding in Britain. There was expected to be a significant surge in some places along with battering waves on top of that, and the potential also exists for wind damage not only along the coast but inland as well. (weather maps)

11/8/07 -
Tropical depression PEIPAH was 305 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.

VIETNAM - Receding floodwaters in Vietnam have killed dozens of people, raising the death toll to 82, as a violent typhoon threatens to bear down this weekend. Drastic measures have been taken in central coastal provinces to cope with the impending landfall of Category 1 Typhoon Peipah. Robusta coffee rose to a 10-YEAR HIGH PRICE in London as Typhoon Peipah headed toward Vietnam, which is the world's biggest grower.

MALAYSIA - The Malaysia Meteorological Department issued a First Category warning on strong winds and rough seas. A typhoon has been detected and is expected to move north-westwards at 8kmph. In this connection strong south-westerly winds of 40-50 kmph and rough seas with waves up to 3.5 metres occuring over the coastal waters of Labuan, West Sabah and Sarawak are expected to persist until Sunday.

11/7/07 -
Typhoon PEIPAH was 230 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

CAMBODIA - The Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology has asked the public to take storm precautions as Typhoon Peipah, which has recently hit the Philippines, is expected to strike the Indochinese Peninsula in the next few days. The storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds to Cambodia over Nov. 8 to 10. The director of the ministry's meteorology department said that the storm would bring less rain, but heavy winds and cold weather. The typhoon began in the Pacific Ocean and then blew across the Philippines to the South China Sea. Peipah left at least six people dead after landing at Luzon in the Philippines on Sunday. [Best not to go to the link as it got a warning rating from my site advisor, but here it is if you need it - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/06/content_7019648.htm]

CANADA - In an ominous sign for those in Halifax still harbouring bitter memories of hurricane Juan and the havoc it unleashed four years ago, shortly after midnight Sunday, the temperature began climbing quickly, defying logic for a cold November night. In a matter of hours, the temperature was suddenly a balmy 17 degrees. Across the province, Yarmouth was approaching 20 degrees. Locals knew what it meant: Noel was about to hit. After a week of buildup since Environment Canada began tracking hurricane Noel in the Caribbean, where it killed at least 143 people and caused mudslides and floods, the massive storm rolled into the Maritimes on the weekend, pushing a wave of tropical air up the coast, and reviving fears of a Juan repeat. Luckily, the damage this time around was considerably less. By the time Noel arrived, it had morphed from a hurricane into what is called a post-tropical storm, meaning it shifted form as it moved up the coast. The name change didn't mean the storm had been downgraded. Rather, it had actually grown in size. Peak winds of up to 135 kilometres an hour battered the East Coast throughout the night, causing waves of up to 15 metres. In parts of Newfoundland, where natural wind patterns amplified Noel's force, winds of up to 180 km/h were recorded. By comparison, hurricane Juan's windstorm topped out at 176 km/h. While hurricane Juan cut a smaller, more intense swath through Halifax, Noel had a broader impact across the Maritimes and parts of Quebec. More than 175,000 people were without electricity from power lines downed by falling trees and branches. Unlike hurricane Juan, which moved very fast, post-tropical storm Noel approached at a slower pace, creating SOME OF THE BIGGEST WAVES OFF THE EAST COAST IN RECENT MEMORY.

11/6/07 -
Typhoon PEIPAH was 165 nmi NW of Baguio City, Philippines.

INDIA - Mangroves are a natural defence against cyclones and would have helped prevent many of the deaths in the 1999 super cyclone.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
11/6/07 -
AUSTRALIA - This week's storms and heavy rains have given parts of South Australia their WETTEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. Many areas from the far northwest of SA to Victoria's east have recorded up to three times the November average rainfall in the first five days of the month. Mount Gambier's 127mm was South Australia's highest rainfall in the past week, while Robe received 91mm and Coonawarra received 75mm. [this follows an April - November 1 with the LOWEST RAINFALL ON RECORD! (see drought section below)]

MEXICO - A massive mudslide has struck a village in Mexico's southern Chiapas state, leaving at least 16 people missing, feared dead. Heavy rainfalls in the community of San Juan Grijalva caused a hillside to collapse into a river. Local media reports said the landslide buried many houses and as many as 30 people could be missing. "This village practically disappeared." Some residents are thought to have fled into the hills to escape the advancing wall of mud and debris. The slip follows the heavy rain which has caused severe flooding in Chiapas and in the neighbouring state of Tabasco. Water levels remain high and thousands of people are still waiting for food and other supplies. Flood waters which reached 2m (6ft 7in) at the peak of the flooding are now reported to have begun receding, but conditions remain difficult. Isolated communities have yet to receive any fresh water or medical supplies and tens of thousands of people are housed in evacuation centres, where conditions are deteriorating. In the hard-hit state capital, Villahermosa, fights broke out over sparse supplies of aid. No rain is predicted for the next few days. (photos)

VIETNAM - Flood death toll rising - Floods, which have hit Vietnam's central region since Oct. 29, have killed 60 local people and left 10 others missing.
A new wave of floods could hit for the next two to three days, with a typhoon in the South China Sea expected to bring more heavy rain today. Typhoons are common in Vietnam between July and October but they usually subside before November.

HAWAII - The first storm of the season sent boulders crashing into two O'ahu homes Sunday, caused power outages across much of the island and triggered sewage spills totaling nearly 2 million gallons. And more rain is on the way. Showers are forecast for the rest of the week. A boulder measuring about 4 feet by 3 feet by 2 feet rumbled through a bedroom wall and crashed onto the bed of a 14-year-old girl, who had uncharacteristically awakened moments before. In a 12-hour period, Waimanalo saw 7.3 inches of rain and Mililani had 5.6 inches. A rain gauge in Punalu'u recorded 3 inches of rain per hour. The deluge lasted 10 hours and unleashed millions of gallons of rain that overwhelmed storm drains and wastewater treatment plants. The lightning and thunder were caused by a kona low-pressure weather system out of the north that moved southeast, passing from Kaua'i to O'ahu to Maui. The weather service issued a high-surf warning for south-facing shores for all Islands. The weather service also warned boaters that the swell could cause harbor surges. "A south swell like this is PRETTY UNUSUAL for this late in the year. Usually south swells are in the summer. A high-surf warning of 15 feet for the south shore is pretty UNUSUAL for any time of the year." (photos / map)

11/5/07 -
Typhoon PEIPAH was 85 nmi NNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - Tropical Storm "Kabayan" (international code name Peipah) made landfall at Palanan, Isabela, in northern Luzon on Sunday night and was expected to bring heavy rains and strong winds over the area. Kabayan had maximum winds of 115 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 145 kph. PAGASA warned residents in northern Luzon provinces to be alert for flashfloods and landslides, and storm surges in the seas from today until the storm exits the country on Wednesday morning. Moving west at 13 kph, the storm was forecast to be 120 kilometers west of Baguio City by this evening. (satellite photo)

Noel battered the Atlantic coastline of Massachusetts and caused power outages for more than 56,000 homes and businesses. After a brief stint as Hurricane Noel, the storm lost much of its wind strength but continued to pound away with wind gusts strong enough to snap branches and power lines and cause flooding throughout the Cape Cod region.

CANADA - Tens of thousands of people in Atlantic Canada and parts of Quebec remained without power late Sunday after the remnants of Hurricane Noel battered Atlantic Canada with high winds and driving rain.

FLORIDA - A portion of A1A remained closed Sunday, after Noel sent ankle-deep water onto the beachside road. The deluge that prompted authorities to shut down A1A Saturday had receded a bit, but the waters surged again at high tide Sunday afternoon. High tide was expected between 4 and 4:30 p.m. to most likely cause more flooding before the Noel swell of high winds and water passed. Strong rip currents and high surf winds are also expected to hit beaches along Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, which remain under a coastal flood advisory. Besides the A1A flooding, a surge of 4-foot waves also flooded a Sunny Isles Beach hotel garage. Weather experts said ocean swells whipped up by the departing tropical storm are what turned parts of State Road A1A into an extension of Fort Lauderdale beach Saturday as high tides swept up and dumped sand and water onto the roadway. Disaster might be the word used by those tracking the extensive beach erosion that many South Florida beaches have experienced in the past few weeks, including from Noel, which scraped away huge amounts of sand, especially in Palm Beach County. High winds have generated battering waves that have gobbled away shoreline, shrinking beaches. Beach conditions over the past week or so have made some residents re-think how devastating the storm surge could be if the area is hit head-on by a hurricane. "It's looking like if we get another storm, there's not going to be any beach left." Noel sent a swell of high winds and water straight at South Florida as it passed to the northeast. As it continues to move away from South Florida, conditions here should improve. The worst should be over, at least in the near term.

11/4/07 -
Tropical storm PEIPAH was 243 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.

The remnants of Hurricane Noel was expected to cause the Delaware coast to experience winds up to 55 mph and choppy waves up to 10 feet Saturday, causing moderate flooding and eroding beaches. Winds were gusting to close to 40 mph on the coast before dawn, with the strongest winds expected after daybreak. Noel grew in size Friday as the Atlantic season's deadliest storm passed over the ocean between the U.S. Southeast and Bermuda, heading for Nova Scotia. The National Weather Service issued a coastal flood advisory for the Delaware and New Jersey shores and Delaware Bay, with tides expected to be 2.5 to 3 feet above normal on the coast and 1.5 to 2 feet above normal on the Bay. The storm is losing tropical cyclone status. Noel hit the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic earlier this week. The Associated Press put the death toll in the region at 115.
NEW JERSEY - The Jersey shore got some large waves and strong winds as the remnants of Hurricane Noel passed by on Saturday. Winds up to 40 mph and waves as big as 14 feet were also expected to pummel Maryland, New York and New Hampshire beaches.

Tropical Storm Noel's waves chewed up beaches from the Georgia border to Miami-Dade County. In Florida, the upper third of Broward's beaches were the worst hit. Other areas of concern were south of Port Everglades. The beaches are "chronically erosive"- a problem that stems from building on the beachfront. "We've developed almost all our beachfronts and got rid of our dunes. There's no way for our beach system to act normally." In Palm Beach, managers were watching a few beachfront structures in Jupiter and Singer Island that could become unsteady because of erosion. The county suffered ''significant'' beach erosion. A seawall collapsed behind a condo at the south end of the county. It has since been stabilized. "The building itself became undermined, and we had to abandon some units." Noel's waves slapped hardest farther north. Preliminary reports show erosion up and down the coast from "wave energy." St. Johns County managers have already requested emergency permits to stabilize structures and build temporary seawalls on beaches behind private residences that were already damaged from a spring storm. "This just caused more significant impacts." Up to a half-dozen homes in St. Johns were in danger of being washed away. On Wednesday, Fernandina Beach near the Georgia border declared a local emergency, and on Thursday waves continued lapping at the foundations of several homes and at least one motel in Brevard County. Eroding beaches are not a new phenomenon in Florida, which has experienced an UNUSUAL number of powerful storms since 2004 and has spent more than $400 million the past two years to shore up coastlines.

11/2/07 -
Tropical storm 05A was 838 nmi SW of Karachi, Pakistan.
Hurricane NOEL was 38 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL strengthened into a category-one hurricane in the Atlantic today as it moved away from the Bahamas toward Bermuda. Rains have killed at least 108 people in the Caribbean. A hurricane watch was in effect for the northwestern Bahamas as Noel moved farther away on a long-anticipated shift to the north-northeast that would eventually bring it as a possibly fierce but nontropical storm to Nova Scotia, Canada. The northernmost islands of the Bahamas were still feeling Noel's onslaught today and several churches opened as shelters on the island of Abaco. Residents of Long Island in the central Bahamas suffered "devastating" losses as the storm DUMPED A RECORD 38cm OF RAIN on the island over two days. The storm caused FLOOD LEVELS ON THE ISLAND NOT SEEN FOR 60 YEARS and families at several settlements were forced to evacuate homes and businesses as water reached a depth of one metre in some places.
COSTA RICA - Tropical Storm Noel is expected to keep kicking up rain in Costa Rica over the weekend, and the National Emergency Commission maintains a yellow alert for the entire Pacific coast and a green alert for the Caribbean. Low-pressure systems over the Caribbean Sea are generating precipitation over much of the country. Wednesday night, rains flooded about 40 houses in the cantons of Barva and San Rafael; 20 of these families lost everything. The bridge over Río Segundo de Barva collapsed, and a fiber-optic phone line providing service to San José de la Montaña was severed.
FLORIDA - If you pulled up the NWS’ Marine Weather Forecast on Thursday, there were 11 different color-coded forecasts. The awful weather this week is impacting everyone’s lives from Trick or Treaters to garbagemen to weather forecasters. Outdoors guys have dubbed it “Big Wave Week.” Winds 20 to 25 knots Thursday, seas 11 to 15 feet. Friday and Saturday winds will stay 15 to 20 knots. Seas will be 8 to 11 feet. Sad thing is, Treasure Coast outdoorsmen are becoming all too familiar with these conditions. "Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like we’ve had more of these severe events — with or without a Tropical Storm looming — since the spring of 2004 than we did in the 3-4 years prior to that."

INDIA - The latest weather forecast, warning about another cyclone in the next 36 hours in coastal AP and parts of Rayalaseema, is virtually sending a chill down the spines of the already rain-ravaged Chittoor farmers. A vast extent of paddy and groundnut seedlings, besides tomato crops, are already submerged in the heavily waterlogged fields, especially in the eastern mandals of Chittoor district which bore the brunt of the cyclone. Though as many as a dozen irrigation tanks have breached due to the floods, one positive fallout of it is that barring one dam located in the upland western tract, all other eight dams in the district are already brimming with water promising bright prospects for farmers of the district for the next one or two seasons.

11/1/07 -
Cyclone 05A was 731 nmi SSW of Karachi, Pakistan.
Tropical storm NOEL was 125 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas.

OMAN - The threat of severe bad weather over Oman’s southern coast eased as the cyclonic storm continued to weaken and was downgraded to a tropical depression. Wind speed in the open waters dropped down to less than 25 knots in the early hours today. The cloud band from the depression is expected to deliver moderate to heavy rains accompanied by winds in Ras Madraka of Dhofar region during the next 36 hours. Sea conditions along the south-eastern coast will be rough with maximum wave height of between three and four metres. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology has cautioned fishermen and people living in low-lying areas.

FLORIDA - Wind and waves are washing out beaches from Jacksonville to Miami and threatening a handful of coastal structures. But Tropical Storm Noel's worst effects are expected to spare Florida. The National Weather Service warns strong, gusty winds swirling between Noel and a high-pressure system over the East Coast will continue buffeting Florida through today. Noel is expected to skirt the state's coast over the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center says Noel's center is about 235 miles southeast of Miami. It's nearly stationary, but was expected to turn to the north away from Florida late in the day on Wednesday and speed away from the U.S. over the Bahamas. It has top sustained winds near 50 miles-an-hour - up from 40 earlier in the day. As a precaution, the South Florida Water Management District has lowered canals in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in anticipation of possible flooding.

Tropical Storm Noel strengthened after drenching Cuba and killing at least 61 people with surging floodwaters in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The death toll from days of downpours in the Dominican Republic, in particular, has begun to climb as emergency workers fanned out to bring aid to towns and villages cut off by raging rivers and inundated by chest-high floods. Forty-one people were confirmed dead and another 33 were missing while at least 25,540 people were homeless and 6,300 homes had been destroyed. Several bridges had collapsed and mudslides blocked roads and at least 39 communities were cut off by floods.
In Haiti at least 20 people died. Around 400 houses have been destroyed.
In Cuba, thousands of people were evacuated from vulnerable areas but no casualties were reported as the country has one of the most effective civil protection operations in the region. The storm dumped 150mm of rain in just six hours over Baracoa in Cuba, causing floods and cutting off roads at the already water-logged eastern tip of the island. "We are getting a constant downpour and strong gusts of wind. The sea is very rough."
In Jamaica, one person died when a house collapsed in the heavy rain.
Torrential rain was also falling over parts of the Bahamas.
Strong winds sent waves crashing onto southeast Florida's Atlantic beaches and rain whipping down the streets of Miami.

10/31/07 -
Cyclone 05A was 676 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 182 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas.

Noel - at least 43 people were killed in floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Noel as it barrelled across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba in the Caribbean. The storm over the Dominican Republic threatened to cause more floods and mudslides across the region, already drenched by weeks of rainfall. The National Emergency Committee said nearly 20,000 people had to evacuate their homes across the country. In Cuba, 2000 people in the storm's path were evacuated. Tropical Storm Noel was expected to head back out to sea off the north coast of Cuba tonight or tomorrow. It was then expected to barrel over some of the Bahamian islands before heading north into the Atlantic Ocean, though forecasters said Noel's likely track would take it dangerously close to Florida's east coast.
Photos
CUBA - Double the average rainfall in October has already filled reservoirs in eastern Cuba to the brim and authorities worried about flooding.

OMAN is bracing itself for the possibility of another tropical cyclone but this time it could be of a lesser intensity and hit the south of the country. In June this year tropical Cyclone Gonu struck Oman's eastern coast, Muscat and the northern parts of the country, causing extensive damage and loss of lives, particularly due to flooding that followed torrential rain for three days. The winds then reached over 70 knots. In this cyclone, currently unnamed and known as tropical cyclone 05a, meteorological officials expect winds to reach around 40 knots. "At the moment the storm has winds of around 25 knots." The storm could hit the southern Omani coast around Thursday. "The storm is expected to bring with it thunder, heavy rain and subsequent flooding in the Dhofar region." (satellite photo)

10/30/07 -
Cyclone 05A was 612 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 82 nmi NNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - At least 13 people have been killed in flooding in the Dominican Republic following torrential rains dumped by Tropical Storm Noel. The deaths were reported in the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, and along the south coast. It is feared the death toll will rise, with several others reported missing. The storm was expected to pour 25-50cm (10-20in) of rain on the Dominican Republic and neighbouring Haiti. By early Monday evening (2100 GMT) the centre of the storm had passed and was heading north-west, past the eastern tip of Cuba towards the Bahamas. However, on the island of Hispaniola - divided between the Dominican Republic and Haiti - rain continued to fall, forcing river levels higher. Several bridges were reported to have collapsed, cutting off communities. Hundreds of people were being evacuated, amid fears of flash floods and landslides. Farmers have suffered big losses and numerous areas have lost power. While there were not as yet any reports of fatalities from Haiti, the country often suffers worse from flooding than its neighbour because so much of it has been deforested. The town of Cabaret, north of the capital Port-au-Prince was being evacuated. "It's very serious now. It's moving very slowly and dropping a lot of rain."

A tropical storm watch is not being issued for SE Florida at this time. High wind watches are already in effect for several counties due to the expectation of an increasing pressure gradient produced by the combination of a strong surface high building over the eastern U.S. and the approach of Noel. A tropical storm watch may still be required for SE Florida early today, depending on the forecast track and wind radii of the tropical storm.

10/29/07 -
Cyclone 05A was 599 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 75 nmi S of Port Au Prince, Haiti.

Officials in Haiti feared flash floods would hit impoverished areas of the nation early today, as Tropical Storm Noel lashed the country with heavy rains. Noel, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, was projected to reach Haiti and the Dominican Republic — which share the island of Hispaniola — this morning before heading on toward Cuba. The strengthening Caribbean storm, which formed into a tropical storm Sunday, poses a serious threat to Haiti, where floods killed at least 37 earlier this month. Noel had sustained winds of about 50 mph (80 kph) and its outer bands were dumping rain over Hispaniola overnight. The meandering storm was spinning north-northwest at roughly 6 mph (10 kph), on a projected track that would bring its center near the southeastern peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm warning was issued for the entire Haitian coastline and parts of neighboring Dominican Republic's southern coast. Noel, with tropical storm force winds fanning 140 miles (225 kilometers) from its center, could drop 10 to 20 inches (25-50 centimeters) of water on Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba and Jamaica. Dominican authorities said at least 600 people had been evacuated as the storm touched off landslides, flooded rivers and pushed storm surges onto Santo Domingo's seaside boulevard. Swollen rivers also forced evacuations in Cabaret, a town north of Port-au-Prince where floods killed at least 23 people earlier this month. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch were issued for southeastern parts of Cuba, including the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay.
Florida Division of Emergency Management officials cautioned that the forecast track was highly uncertain due to varying environmental conditions surrounding the storm and advised residents and visitors to south Florida and the Key to monitor future forecasts. Hurricane experts at Colorado State University are forecasting a very active end to the 2007 hurricane season. In an updated forecast released on Oct. 2, they call for four named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane to form during the months of October and November. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concur that the end of the season could be active. (see the link for a 2007 hurricane season summary, so far)

INDIA - A cyclone is expected to make landfall near the coastal Kavali area in Andhra Pradesh this afternoon. Yesterday, the weather office said the cyclone was 200 kilometers southeast of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone is expected to bring more rain and strong winds in Chennai and surrounding areas. Authorities have ordered schools and colleges to close today. Heavy showers have been lashing Chennai and neighbouring areas for two days leaving the roads flooded. Chennai was a victim of continuous rainfall on Sunday. What's worse, there is no respite at least for the next two days - that's according to the Met department. Fatalities in the showers have risen to 25. (photo)

10/28/07 -
Cyclone 05A was 636 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical depression 16 was 137 nmi SSW of Barahona, Dominican Republic.

JAPAN - Typhoon Faxai, packing winds of up to 144km/h, was churning off Japan's main island in the Pacific Ocean, heading for the Tokyo region on Saturday. Typhoon Faxai was located 300km south of Tokyo and was moving northeast at 85km/h. "Faxai" is expected to bring strong winds, the national weather agency said, warning of heavy rain and possible landslides in eastern Japan. The typhoon is expected to leave Japan by early Monday. Earlier this month, Typhoon Fitow hit eastern and northern Japan, killing at least two people and injuring 82 others.

A tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean was pelting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti with rains and gusty winds on Friday. The area of low pressure remains disorganized and upper level winds currently are not favorable for development. However, it's possible the system could strengthen as it moves into the western Caribbean. Computer models are in disagreement where the area might ultimately go, as some point it toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the Gulf of Mexico, while others indicate it might curve northeast back out to sea. At 5:30 p.m. on Friday, the disturbance was centered about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo, in the Dominican Republic, moving west, southwest at about 15 to 20 mph. The hurricane center also was monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, saying there currently are no signs of development.

AUSTRALIA should brace itself for the worst tropical cyclone season since 1998/1999, a leading catastrophe forecaster warns. Either five or six tropical storms will hit Australia this season, which lasts from November 1 to April 30, according to a prediction by UK-based Tropical Storm Risk. The Australia region, which includes nearby islands in the southwest Pacific, is likely to see 13 tropical storms, seven of which will develop into severe tropical cyclones, The reason for the higher cyclone activity is La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, pushing sea surface temperatures there to their coldest since 1999, which helps create above-normal tropical storm activity. This season will not be as bad as 1998/1999, when the region saw 16 tropical storms, 10 of which developed into severe tropical cyclones.

10/26/07 -
Tropical depression FAXAI was 229 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Wednesday’s ‘low’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Tamil Nadu spun westwards to cross the extreme south peninsula and emerged into the warmer waters of southeast Arabian Sea on Thursday. An India Meteorological Department update said that the system is likely to become marked in the next two days. This is the very system that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts bets will become a strong tropical cyclone. For the third successive day, the ECMWF persisted with the cyclone forecast, signalling increasing levels of confidence about the eventuality. The warm waters in the basin will fuel the system engine, while the upper-level anticyclone over north India will fan bands of northeasterlies across to turn as helpful northerlies over the west Arabian Sea. Current meteorological analysis suggests that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the south peninsula, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep would sustain for three more days. Meanwhile, a fresh ‘low’ is shown to break out over the southeast Bay of Bengal around Saturday. This will bring a fresh pulse of heavy showers over the south peninsula from Monday next. The causative system will gradually intensify into a depression and is shown to barrel into the north Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast. This part of the southeast coast, including Chennai, has remained out of bounds for the rampaging rain bands towards the south and extreme south. This is because cyclonic circulations and ‘lows’ from the Bay have traversed a southerly track pre-determined by the rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Only the stronger ones can hope to break out and carry the ITCZ along in a north-northwest direction targeting the north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. Meanwhile, the La Nina has intensified over the equatorial Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are expected to rule the South China Sea.

10/25/07 -
No current tropical cyclones.

A monsoon ‘low’ has popped up over the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka, even as the India Meteorological Department forecast the formation of a successor system over the southeast Bay around Saturday. The prevailing ‘low’ is tipped to move north-northwest, cross the peninsula and slither into the southeast Arabian Sea where it will resuscitate the remnants of a cyclonic circulation. By the weekend, the combined entity will undergo intensification first into a depression. According to international weather models, the system will feed on the warm seawaters in the east and central Arabian Sea to power its way into the status of a likely tropical cyclone. The helpful wind circulation associated with the anticyclone will help it steer across in a north-northwest direction and slam into the Oman coast in due course. [following the path Cyclone Gomu took earlier this year.] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been consistently showing a strong system (likely a named tropical cyclone) treading close to southern Oman around October 30th. Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal continues to witness convective forcing from across the territorial waters with a moisture pipeline extending from the South China Sea and the Indonesia Sea. The ‘low’ expected to break out over the southeast Bay (Andaman Sea) holds the promise of setting up a strong system in the Bay. Given the considerable distance that it would need to traverse in a decidedly north-northwest direction, the system could set up a monsoon depression, the first of the season in the Bay basin. Its behaviour will be closely watched for signs of intensification into a still stronger system. The consensus forecast is for a strong `low’ (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slightly slower to form than earlier thought. The prevailing ‘low’ in the southwest Bay will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are also likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala during the same period. The Karaikal-Nagapattinam-Vedaranniyam belt in Tamil Nadu was battered by punishing rains as the ‘low’ became entrenched around the area of genesis on Tuesday. Puducherry also received widespread rain overnight. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast for most places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north interior Karnataka.

10/24/07 -
Tropical depression KIKO was 351 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

INDIA - A day after the northeast monsoon was officially declared as having set in over the Bay of Bengal, ‘disruptive features’ evolving to the west over the Arabian Sea have sent weathermen scurrying back to their map rooms. The ghost of Super Cyclone Gonu (the system that nearly killed the southwest monsoon during onset in June) is haunting them, with hints of another destructive cyclone stalking the Arabian Sea during the week ahead. Gonu’s successor is seen as treading the same path of calibrated growth in power and vigour, culminating in a likely blow-up over the Oman coast around October 30. In the process, it will have ‘waved down’ an approaching ‘low’ from the Bay. This ‘low’ would now be forced to buy time for a landfall over the Tamil Nadu coast, which is now expected to take place around October 31 — three days later than scheduled, but a day after the ‘pretender’ to Gonu erupts in a spurt of heavy torrents over the Gulf coast. Most of the easterly monsoon winds could get directed into the domineering Arabian Sea system, much in the way Gonu contrived to pack itself with hurricane-strength winds. The onset phase of the southwest monsoon had chalked for want of moisture diverted in this manner. But the impact of the latest storm may not be that big, if only for the fact that it is not brewing in the same sea basin as the northeast monsoon. In contrast, the southwest monsoon had to contend with a storm of Gonu’s bearing in its own backyard.

10/23/07 -
Tropical depression KIKO was 263 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

10/22/07 -
Typhoon KAJIKI was 531 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm KIKO was 173 nmi WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

10/19/07 -
Typhoon KAJIKI was 517 nmi NNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm KIKO was 114 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical storm Kiko heads toward Mexico's Pacific coast; may become hurricane. Mexico issued a tropical storm warning along its Pacific coast Thursday as Tropical Storm Kiko marched toward land. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometres an hour and was located 140 kilometres southwest of the resort of Zihuatanejo. It was moving north at almost 15 km/h, and was expected to veer sharply toward the northwest early today and skim Mexico's southwest Pacific coast. Forecasters said it would likely strengthen, although they didn't expect it to become a hurricane before scraping land, probably near the port of Manzanillo on Sunday. The tropical storm warning was issued from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression late Tuesday before regaining tropical storm status Wednesday. The storm could kick up strong waves, winds and rains on land. The storm was expected to strengthen to a hurricane Saturday, but forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said its eye was expected to stay off shore. Forecasters warned it could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain on land.

10/18/07 -
Tropical storm KIKO was 356 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kiko reformed before dawn Wednesday off Mexico's Pacific coast. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression late Tuesday before regaining tropical storm status Wednesday. The storm was stalled far out to sea and was expected to strengthen slightly and move north in the coming days. It had sustained winds of 40 mph and wasn't expected to threaten land or become a hurricane. [SITE NOTE - New forecasts show some threat to Mexico in a couple of days due to eastward movement of the storm. Many models are predicting Kiko will reach hurricane strength even though the system is rather disheveled.]

WASHINGTON - The National Weather Service has issued a preliminary wind warning, sparked by concerns over the remains of a tropical storm that may be sliding into Western Washington sometime today. Though the exact storm track cannot yet be predicted, NWS officials have issued a special weather statement warning of high wind potential Thursday, the result of Tropical Storm Lingling burning itself out along the western coast. If the storm blows eastward, it could hit Western Washington and Vancouver Island today. But if the storm continues north, high winds will likely be confined to the coast and possibly the far north interior of the state. Or, it could be a “non-event,” according to the forecast.

CALIFORNIA - Four people are now confirmed dead in the traffic pileups north of Los Angeles that took place amid blinding sandstorms Tuesday. Wind advisories were extended in the area Wednesday. The winds were gusting to 55 miles an hour in the arid high desert. Forecasters say more strong winds are likely in the area into Friday. The largest of the crashes scattered vehicles across state Highway 14 just west of Edwards Air Force Base on the northern edge of Los Angeles County. Two people died in that pileup, and 25 others were taken to hospitals. In the town of Mojave , two others were killed and eight were hurt in separate accidents about 1,000 yards apart along a state highway. Like the rest of California, the area has been bone-dry this year, getting less than two inches of rain.

10/17/07 -
Tropical depression KIKO was 420 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

10/16/07 -
Tropical depression 15E was 417 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

PACIFIC - Tropical Depression 15-E formed in the Pacific Ocean Sunday off the coast of Baja California. There is a better than 50% chance that the storm will develop tropical storm-force winds, according to The National Hurricane Center. It would be named Tropical Storm Kiko, the 11th named storm of the season for the eastern Pacific. The Western Pacific has been extremely active, with seven storms that have exceeded Category 4 strength. (map of the strong hurricanes of 2007)

ATLANTIC - A low-pressure system emerged from the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Monday. Weather models show the system will move generally north across the Gulf and make landfall in the oil rich northern Gulf Coast between central Louisiana and western Florida over the next few days. The NHC will name the next tropical storm Noel. In addition, the system could disrupt some of Mexico's oil production in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf. The NHC is also watching a low-pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. Weather models show the system will make landfall in Nicaragua before moving northwest over Central America. The NHC however does not expect the Caribbean system to develop into a tropical cyclone before making landfall. A couple of the models showed the system emerging in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days.

10/15/07 -
Tropical depression 15E was 387 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

10/14/07 -
Tropical depression LINGLING was 1557 nmi E of Tokyo, Japan.

JAPAN - Typhoons that hit the country from the middle of September through the start of October are more likely to bring torrential rainfall to northeastern parts of Japan as they merge with autumnal rain fronts and their structures change, the Meteorological Research Institute said. According to the institute, torrential rainfall can still occur even if a bank of rain clouds does not approach land because the rain clouds caused by autumn typhoons usually hover over wider areas than summer typhoons. An autumn front is formed when a mass of cold air moves southward and advances toward a mass of warmer air nearer land. Typhoons that make landfall at this time of year merge with autumnal fronts, creating rain clouds that move along fronts. The difference in temperature on either side of the paths of typhoons indicated whether the round clouds that surround the center of a typhoon maintained the usual typhoon cloud patterns, and also whether the typhoons merged with an autumnal rain front to become extratropical cyclones. Of the 10 typhoons that hit the country from June to early September in 2004 to 2006, nine typhoons had the structure of a typhoon with round clouds, according to the analysis. Typhoons with round clouds bring moist air from the south, causing heavy rain in areas along the Pacific coast. Meanwhile, the four typhoons that made landfall during this period had the characteristics of extratropical cyclones. Three of these hit Hokkaido and the Tohoku region in August or later.

10/12/07 -
Tropical depression 15 was 760 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression LINGLING was 1049 nmi NNE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Mixed Atlantic hurricane season puzzles experts - Judge the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season by the 13 storms so far, and it looks like a relatively busy year. But look at the number of days a hurricane has swirled in the Atlantic, or use other measures of a storm season's ferocity, and 2007 has been surprisingly benign. Hurricane experts had predicted the season to be above-average because of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the continuance of a decades-long natural period of increased storm activity, and the development of La Nina weather conditions in the Pacific. Many tropical waves, often a precursor of a tropical storm, developed in the Atlantic over the busiest weeks of the season between September and early October, and eight named tropical storms formed in September - matching a record for the month. But apart from maximum-strength Hurricane Felix, which slammed into Central America on September 4, most were exceedingly brief or weak, meaning September only registered 3.5 days with a hurricane. The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University had predicted 20 hurricane days that month. The main reason for the low number of hurricane days this year has been high vertical wind shear - the difference in windspeeds at different altitudes - which tears storms apart while they try to form. The presence of the shear has scientists puzzled. A periodic cooling in sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, known as La Nina, is supposed to reduce shear over the Atlantic. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Tuesday the La Nina phenomenon had definitely kicked in and would be weak to moderate this winter. That could make the end of the six-month hurricane season a little busier than one might otherwise expect because a normal increase in late-season wind shear might be suppressed by La Nina. In addition to the shear, this year saw a lot of northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere that brought dry air over the tropical Atlantic where many storms form.

VIETNAM - The death toll from Vietnam's Typhoon Lekima rose to 86 as rescue workers rushed to get aid to thousands of people still stuck in flooded areas Wednesday. Nine people were still missing and feared dead. The flood waters that inundated central Vietnam continued receding Wednesday, but large sections of Nghe An and neighboring Thanh Hoa province remained unreachable by car. About 10 million Vietnamese had been affected by Typhoon Lekima. The typhoon washed away 6,000 houses, damaged 52,000 houses and destroyed about 200,000 acres of crops. The initial damage estimate from the typhoon is $131 million.

10/11/07 -
No current tropical storms.

10/10/07 -
No current tropical storms.

10/10/07 -
Tropical storm KROSA was 274 nmi NNE of Taipei, Taiwan.

CHINA - Some five million people have been affected by the powerful storm that hit China's south-east coast, destroying houses and causing widespread flooding. More than 1.4 million people were evacuated ahead of Typhoon Krosa, which struck Zhejiang and Fujian provinces on Sunday. No deaths were reported and it was later downgraded to a tropical storm. Typhoon Krosa struck Taiwan before making landfall in China on Sunday afternoon, where it was estimated to have caused more than $600m (£300m) worth of damage. About 75,000 fishing vessels were recalled to port as gale-force winds and heavy rain hit the south-eastern provinces. The storm halted air, sea and road traffic and closed schools, while houses were destroyed in the port city of Wenzhou. Krosa has now been downgraded to a tropical storm and is heading back out into the East China Sea, but officials in Fujian and Zhejiang have warned of more rain and possible landslides in the coming days. Typhoon Krosa is the 16th typhoon to hit China this year.

10/8/07 -
Tropical storm KROSA was 164 nmi NNW of Taipei, Taiwan.

Krosa, the year's 15th typhoon, is expected to drench Jeju Island and parts of the southern Korean peninsula until Tuesday, and a heavy rain alert has been issued for those areas. The storm should dissipate over seas far to the south of Jeju on Wednesday. The Korea Meteorological Administration said on Sunday that Typhoon Krosa, which has struck Taiwan, and hit Mainland China, then will head back out to sea again, but a cold continental high pressure system from the north should keep it away from Korea. Krosa is expected to weaken by Wednesday afternoon and disappear around waters some 410 km northeast of Shanghai. But before it disappears, Krosa will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Jeju Island and southern Korea. Heuksando in South Jeolla Province on the southwest coast reported RECORD RAINFALL of 131 mm on Sunday. Jeju should expect 150 mm and South Kyungsang Province 120 mm on Monday. (photo)

10/7/07 -
Tropical storm KROSA was 60 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan.

CHINA has evacuated one million people as it braces itself for a tropical storm that has already killed four people in Taiwan. Typhoon Krosa has weakened to a tropical storm but is moving towards eastern coastal provinces and cities. Fujian province has issued warnings of possible mud and rock slides. The storm is expected to strike southern Zhejiang and northern Fujian provinces late today. Strong winds, rainstorms and high tides are forecast. (Meteorologists said that it is RARE to witness a typhoon make landfall on China's southeastern coast in October.)
TAIWAN - In northern Taiwan torrential downpours from Typhoon Krosa caused flooding and landslides. At least four people are reported to have died in storm related accidents and more than 52 people have been injured. More than one metre of rain fell in places, and wind gusts of over 185km/h (115mph) were recorded. In Taiwan's capital, Taipei, more than 200 trees were uprooted and several floods reported. Power supplies and transport services were seriously affected. Krosa's sprawling 300km (186 mile) radius ensured its strength was felt across the island.
PHILIPPINES - Typhoon Ineng's initial tally was 20,252 affected in 39 villages in 12 towns in six provinces, 1 dead, 1 hurt. 14 seamen were listed missing in the wake of typhoon "Ineng" (international code name: Krosa). “Ineng" also destroyed 18 fishing boats, 32 cottages and damaged 1,917 houses. The typhoon damaged 12 road sections, 10 major roads, two secondary roads due to landslides, washed-out approaches and the collapse of soil slopes. The National Disaster Coordinating Council registered the “UNUSUAL and sudden occurrence" of big waves in Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Zambales and Misamis Oriental. Flash floods were reported in Cavite, Pampanga and Davao; and sea swelling in Davao City and creek swelling in Kalinga. Landslides were reported in Benguet, Baguio City, Mt. Province, Bulacan, Cuyo, Palawan, and Kalinga.

Experts are also watching another area for possible development in the coming days. This system is located about 435 miles east of Iwo To. It is possible this hybrid system may become better organized in the next couple of days.

VIETNAM - 34 people have died as a result of Typhoon Lekima, which struck on Wednesday, 19 were missing, and many areas are still threatened by flash floods. Disaster officials estimate the cost of the damage in Vietnam at more than $40 million. Thanh Hoa and Nghe An provinces were hit hardest by torrential rains, strong winds blowing off roofs and floods submerging entire villages. “We have not seen flooding like this in 20 years. It was so fast and so out of the blue.”

10/5/07 -
Typhoon KROSA was 359 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.

10/4/07 -
Typhoon KROSA was 430 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 184 nmi S of Hanoi, Vietnam.

Typhoon Lekima slammed into Vietnam's central coast Wednesday night, killing two people, destroying hundreds of houses and unleashing floods in one of the country's poorest regions.
China and Vietnam evacuated hundreds of thousands of people from low-lying coastal areas on Wednesday as Typhoon Lekima, packing winds of up to 120 kph (75 mph) blew in from the east. The typhoon made landfall late on Tuesday near China's beach resort of Sanya, on the southern tip of tropical Hainan island, trapping tourists and forcing the evacuation of over 225,000 residents. Vietnam, meanwhile, started moving children and old people to higher ground in the first steps of a plan to evacuate more than 400,000 people before Lekima hit its central coast. Over 20,000 fishing boats were ordered back to port as the storm shut down almost all tourist attractions in Sanya during what should have been a peak national holiday week. Lekima, which weakened to a tropical storm when it hit Hainan, changed course, returned to sea and gathered strength for an assault on Vietnam. The centre of Lekima was 100 km (60 miles) east of the central province of Ha Tinh, but high waves and rain were already pounding the coast in Nghe An and Ha Tinh provinces. More than 3,000 passengers and some 1,200 cars were stranded in Hainan on Tuesday as ferries linking the island province with the Chinese mainland were suspended because of the typhoon. In Vietnam, an area stretching more than 300 km (190 miles) between the provinces of Thanh Hoa and Quang Binh faced "extreme danger". The storm, which killed five people in the Philippines at the weekend, will not hurt coffee and rice crops or crude oil production which all lie hundreds of miles further to the south. Vietnam often faces up to 10 storms a year and Lekima is the fifth in 2007. Another could be on the way. Tropical storm Krosa has evolved into a typhoon on the west Pacific on Wednesday and the mid-strength typhoon will reach the east coast of Taiwan on Saturday.

Typhoon Krosa underwent a rapid intensification today, as it grew from a Category 1 hurricane into a Category 4 major storm, or super typhoon, in a matter of hours. The storm packs 138 mph winds, and is headed on a track that would take it north of the Philippines, over the norther portion of Taiwan and on to China in the next several days. (satellite photo / map)

ATLANTIC - Hurricane forecasters are tracking four systems in the tropics. Two of them could grow into tropical storms. Two areas of disturbed weather are near Florida. One system is in the Gulf of Mexico and a second is in the Bahamas.

10/3/07 -
Typhoon KROSA was 551 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.
Typhoon LEKIMA was 92 nmi N of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Severe Tropical Storm Lekima was upgraded to a typhoon yesterday afternoon and is moving closer towards south China's island province of Hainan, where 100,000 people have been evacuated. Lekima, upgraded to a typhoon at 2pm, is packing winds of about 118.8km per hour at its eye and heading toward northwest at a speed of 15kmh. It was forecast to land in the south of the island or pass by overnight or today. Apart from relocation of local residents, sluice gates at 17 reservoirs in the province have been opened to divert possible flood water. More than 20,000 fishing boats have been recalled to harbor.
CAMBODIA - Continual rain over the past few days is an indication Cambodia is likely to face tropical storm Lekima, which may bring serious flooding across the nation, local media said on Tuesday. Lekima has moved from Vietnam to China's coastal area, provoking the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology to announce on Sept. 30 that it may soon need to issue flood warnings, should river depth at target points rise above danger levels. The storm would bring incessant torrential rains to Cambodia for days, possibly from Oct. 2 to 5, said the September 30 announcement, making an impact on not only Mekong River Basin but also northeastern provinces such as Ratanakiri, Modulkiri and Preah Vihear, and in the northwest provinces of Kompong Chhnang, Pursat and Battambang.

Tropical Storm Krosa, the 15th storm in the western Pacific this year, formed Tuesday morning east of the Philippines and is likely to affect Taiwan in four to five days. The storm had a radius of 150 km, with maximum center winds of 30 meters per second and gusts reaching 38 meters per second. If Krosa starts moving north in the next few days then it will not approach Taiwan. However, as it is moving very slowly it is still difficult to tell what direction it will take. Krosa has developed into a typhoon and may affect Taiwan as early as this weekend.

ATLANTIC - A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. The cyclone could develop out of an upper-level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and a weak surface low near the southern tip of Florida. The center of the system was located between the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of Florida. The models showed the system will move northwest across Florida. Three of five models show the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in a few days between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. Another model, however, showed the storm moving north up the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia. A subtropical depression has high winds and thunderstorms near the outer edge of the system, while a tropical depression has high winds and thunderstorms near the center. Hence, the biggest damage caused by a tropical system is usually near the center of the storm, while in a subtropical system the biggest effect is closer to the outer edge of the storm. The NHC will name the next tropical storm Noel.
A noted hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University on Tuesday increased its estimate of the number of tropical storms in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season to 17 from 15. (There have been 13 tropical storms so far.) It also estimated there would be a total of seven hurricanes, down from the 9 predicted in May. The hurricane total includes an expectation that Tropical Storm Karen will be upgraded in a post-season analysis.

Cyclones could accelerate climate change. Rising sea temperatures and more intense cyclones in northern Australia could see enormous amounts of carbon released from tropical forests. Studying the impact of Cyclone Monica, which devastated thousands of square kilometres of eucalypt forest in Arnhem Land last year, shows that the loss of tree-stored carbon in a single cyclone would be the same as the nation's emissions from fossil fuels over an entire year. "The best predictions at the moment are that we'll get an increased frequency of very strong cyclones, and maybe a decreased frequency of weaker cyclones. So that will probably mean that large very old trees might be rarer and perhaps less carbon stored in the landcape, so further exacerbating the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and cause more global warming."

10/2/07 -
Tropical depression 17W was 539 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 207 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 306 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

10/1/07 -
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 297 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 313 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression MELISSA was 1390 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

Tropical depression Hanna (international codename Tropical Storm Lekima) killed nine people and left another missing in the Philippines after unleashing landslides, floods and big waves.
MALAYSIA - Rooftops were blown off and trees uprooted when the tail of tropical storm Lekima hit the western coast of Sabah on the island of Borneo late on Saturday. Police and firemen said that all incidents reported were minor and mainly involved roads being blocked by fallen trees in villages but could not give an estimate of the losses. The storm was associated with Tropical Storm Lekima which is blowing through the South China Sea and heading towards Vietnam.

Floodwaters from hurricane Lorenzo were receding Saturday after rains caused mudslides and floods that killed at least five people and drove tens of thousands from their homes in eastern Mexico. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm, Melissa, formed in the eastern Atlantic. It had winds of 3, but posed no immediate threat to land. (Melissa has already diminished to a depression.) In the eastern Pacific, a tropical depression was upgraded to tropical storm Juliette but remained nearly 805 kilometres off the coast of central Mexico on Saturday afternoon. Rivers in Mexico that had swollen 6.4 metres above usual levels began to recede on Saturday, but officials said it might take weeks for all flooding to subside. Lorenzo hit Mexico's Gulf coast on Friday and quickly faded into a potent rainstorm as it moved over the lush, ravine-cut mountains of east-central Mexico, dumping more than 33 centimetres of rain in some areas in less than a day. In hard-hit parts of Veracruz state, streets remained flooded by weather that ripped roofs off some 2,000 homes and swept cars away. In Alamo, a burst pipeline released oil into the Buenavista River and damaging nearby pastures. At least two children were sickened by the fumes. Residents in the oil city of Poza Rica fled their homes as the water rose. In Mexico's Puebla state, a hillside gave way in the village of Ixtaczoquitla, burying a 26-year-old woman and two girls, ages 3 and 5, who appeared to be her daughters. A nine-year-old girl died in the village of Rancho Nuevo and a 19-year-old man was missing, washed away by a flooded river. Landslides or flooding severed about a dozen roads. In neighbouring Veracruz state, an 83-year-old man died after falling into a hole in drenched soil near his home. Hundreds of homes had been flooded, 2,000 roofs blown off and 30,000 people forced from their homes in Veracruz state. Thousands also were evacuated in Puebla state.

FLORIDA - while Floridians bask in their second hurricane-free year in a row, meteorologists warn that the threat from the tropics may be about to ramp up. October typically brings a shift in the tropics' steering winds, pushing hurricanes into Florida from the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean instead of the Atlantic. The western Caribbean still is loaded with the deep, abundant warm water that fueled Hurricanes Dean and Felix to Category 5 strength in August. The expected return of the La Niña global climate pattern, which encourages Atlantic hurricane formation, could keep the season humming well into November. "One or two more major hurricanes is very possible. I would think we'd have a high chance of a hurricane coming out of the Caribbean and possibly threatening Florida." Officially, the Atlantic basin's hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity hitting in mid-September. "October is the biggest threat for the state of Florida - more than August, more than September." The 13 named storms that have already formed this year, including four hurricanes, are more than the long-term average of 10 storms a season. This season "is going to be ranking as one of the most historic. What we've been warning our clients is that the waters have been phenomenally warm in the Gulf of Mexico and other regions nearby. We kind of use the phrase 'We expect to be surprised.' ... That should be the expected thing, for storms to explode." Water warmer than 80 degrees is potent fuel for hurricanes, and it's more than 100 feet deep in the western Caribbean. That means passing hurricanes keep stirring up warm water, not the cold, discouraging water they might churn up elsewhere in the Atlantic.

--------------------
9/30/07 -
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 329 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 304 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression MELISSA was 1390 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

Hurricane Lorenzo crashed into Mexico's Gulf coast Friday, killing three people in a mudslide and knocking out power to 85,000 homes.

Tropical storm Hanna (Lekima) was poised to hit the northern Philippines Saturday, bringing heavy rain and raising fears of mudslides. Packing maximum wind speeds of 80 kilometres (50 miles) per hour, Hanna was expected to cross the northern half of Luzon and move west of the island by this morning. Heavy rain has fallen over much of Luzon including Manila since Friday. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties but civil defence offices have warned the public to beware of flash floods. Residents on mountainslopes were also warned to beware of mudslides triggered by the rain. An estimated 1,316 people were left dead or missing after typhoon Durian in November, spawning deadly mudslides around Mayon volcano, southeast of Manila. (photo)

9/28/07 -
Tropical storm KAREN was 597 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane LORENZO was 132 nmi SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical storm Lorenzo quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it barrelled toward Mexico's Gulf Coast Thursday night, forcing evacuations and the closure of ports and schools in low-lying coastal areas. The state of Veracruz is particularly susceptible to disasters, with many villages dotting its mountain ranges and riversides. The state suffered widespread flooding when Hurricane Dean hit in August, and in 1999, a rainstorm caused floods that killed at least 350 people. The hurricane is forecast to strengthen further before hitting land early today near the small port of Tuxpan, but then begin rapidly weakening. The storm is expected to bring "dangerous and battering waves," plus storm-surge flooding of one metre. It could dump up to 25 centimetres of rain on Veracruz, with some areas receiving 40 centimetres.

Northern Australia is due for a rise in the frequency of cyclones and climate change will only strengthen their ferocity, research suggests. From the study of the "fingerprints" left on the landscape by major cyclones over the past 6,000 years, research has determined that the northern parts of the country are due for an increase in cyclonic activity. Queensland is coming to the end of a 150-year phase of subdued cyclone activity, as well as a shorter term, 30-year quiet period. "Things look like naturally they are on an upswing. So in terms of natural variability we can expect to see much more intense cyclones and more frequent intense cyclones impacting Queensland...We've been basing our predictions of global climate change on what recent trends have been, and we know things are going to get worse. But the reality is recent trends are a very poor representation of what the longer term natural variability is, so in reality it is going to be worse, possibly, than we had otherwise thought."

9/27/07 -
Tropical depression 13 was 159 nmi NNW of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAREN was 719 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical depression 13 could become a tropical storm at any time. The slow-moving system will probably produce torrential rains primarily over the Mexican state of Veracruz.

Karen - last night and this morning the wind profile of Karen indicated an UNUSUAL horizontal wind profile. The official forecast calls for gradual weakening but maintaining tropical storm strength. Forecasting models differ as to the eventual path and level of tropical storm strength.

9/26/07 -
Tropical depression 13 was 142 nmi ESE of Tampico, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAREN was 1098 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical Depression 13 formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. At 5 p.m., the center of the storm was located about 190 Miles east of Tampico, Mexico. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph. Little overall motion is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected in the next 24 hours, and the system could become Tropical Storm Lorenzo today.

CHINESE LINK TYPHOON WIPHA TO CLIMATE CHANGE - There have been 13 typhoons. Looking at the entire year, on the whole the number of typhoons is relatively low. But...these typhoons have been very active. To look at the influential typhoons, there have been four that have affected our country, either by passing through Japan or by touching down in our country. It should be said, going into September, that overall typhoon intensity has been extraordinarily strong....From June of this year until now, overall [atmospheric] circulation has in fact been ABNORMAL. For example, this year the Huai River rose to cataclysmic levels not seen since 1954. When that was over, on the upper reaches of the Yangtze, Chongqing, which last year experienced drought, saw the biggest floods in years...Overall, this year's weather has been EXTRAORDINARILY ABNORMAL.

9/25/07 -
Tropical depression FRANCISCO was 142 nmi SE of Hanoi, Vietnam.
Tropical storm KAREN was 1234 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical storm Francisco, the 14th such storm to hit China this year, made landfall in south China's Hainan Province shortly after midday on Monday, causing a fishing boat with eight people on board to capsize. The tropical storm, packing up winds of 72 km per hour and bringing torrential rains, landed at Changfa Township in Wenchang County at 12:30 pm. Whirling at a speed of 15 to 20 km per hour northwestward, Francisco was expected to reach the northern part of the Beibu Gulf, south of Guangxi, on Monday night.

A tropical cyclone could form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Three out of four weather models predict the system will steer clear of the U.S. oil and gas facilities in the northern Gulf and make landfall in central Mexico in a few days. The other model, however, shows the storm will make landfall near the Texas-Mexico border.


NEW ZEALAND - It is shaping up to be a good cyclone season in the South Pacific, with experts in New Zealand predicting fewer storms in parts of the region. The season runs from November to May but conditions favor a calmer season ahead. The Pacific wide El Nino-La Nina index is favouring weaker La Nina conditions while the tropical seas surface temperatures - crucial to developing cyclones - are below average. There is an 80 percent chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500 kilometres of New Zealand sometime between November and May, with the highest risk districts being Northland and Gisborne. On average six or seven tropical cyclones can be expected over the entire Southwest Pacific region during a weak La Nina season. This compares with an average of nine or ten over all seasons. "There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of December, which is normal in both neutral and La Nina seasons."

INDIA - the Meteorological Department late on Sunday evening traced a full-fledged ‘low’ over the northeast Arabian Sea, which became well-marked overnight. Along with the depression to the east of the country, it will spearhead the fresh monsoon rally into the farming heartland even as international weather models suggested its intensification, at the expense of the depression, into a possible cyclone. According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, the low-level circulation centre around which the system builds (lying 240 km west of Mumbai) is attracting convective bands to converge. The strong south westerlies to the south of the disturbance could further enhance the low-level development. Other factors that aid the denouement is the low vertical wind shear, an anti-cyclonic circulation overhead that aids divergence in the upper levels and the enhanced uplift provided by the Western Ghats. High wind shear can lop off the head of the towering weather system, leading to its assured collapse. Divergence at the top provides the system with the ventilation, which prompts more and more convective bands to wrap into the system.

9/24/07 -
Tropical storm FRANCISCO was 199 nmi S of Hong Kong.
Tropical depression IVO was 84 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm JERRY was 911 nmi ENE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

Subtropical Storm Jerry formed Sunday in the Atlantic Ocean but posed no immediate threat to land. As of 5 p.m., Jerry was located about 1,060 miles west of the Azores, with top sustained winds near 40 mph. Forecasters said the storm was moving north around 6 mph and is expected to remain over open waters, far west of the Azores. Subtropical storms are hybrid systems that get energy from warm waters like tropical ones, but also from colliding warm and cold air masses like more common storms over land. Jerry is the 10th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Its winds extended outward about 105 miles. Jerry will be absorbed by a larger non-tropical North Atlantic storm early this week.
In the Pacific, Ivo was downgraded from a tropical storm to a depression early Sunday. At 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Ivo was about 95 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and moving east-northeast at 4 mph. The depression - which had maximum sustained winds of 30 mph - is expected to pass over or near the southern tip of Baja near the resort cities of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, a region that was hit early this month by Hurricane Henriette. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for the area.

CHINA - Shipping services across the Qiongzhou strait in south China were suspended as Francisco, the 14th tropical storm to hit China this year, approaches the island province of Hainan. Francisco formed on Saturday night on the South China Sea and intensified into tropical storm on Sunday morning. Whirling at a speed of 15 to 20 kilometers per hour westward, it is expected to land in Wenchang of east Hainan or Xuwen in west Guangdong later on Monday. The tropical storm is forecast to unleash gales and torrential rains in the two provinces.

NORTH KOREA suffered "unexpected damage" after Typhoon Wipha hit the country last weekend, resulting in the country's second severe flood-related damage in a month. About 7,000 hectares of crops in the southwestern province of Hwanghae were damaged or submerged by floods from the typhoon over the weekend. "On Sept. 18-20, the typhoon caused unexpected damage in several regions again." More than 45 centimeters fell in the region. Last month, North Korea was hit by its heaviest rainfall in 40 years, leaving some 600 people dead or missing and about 100,000 people homeless.

9/23/07 -
Tropical depression 15W was 196 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
Tropical storm IVO was 168 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

FLORIDA - Rain and gusty winds were felt throughout Tampa Bay from Wednesday through Friday as Tropical Depression 10 made its way through the state before settling into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. In Clearwater, more than a half inch of rain was received early Friday morning, a RECORD FOR THE MONTH. Almost all the rain was received in one hour, SETTING ANOTHER RECORD FOR SEPTEMBER. The monthly RECORD WAS SET FOR HIGH WIND GUST on Wednesday, Sept. 19, at 32.2 mph.
Severe weather, including a tornado, damaged about 50 homes in central Florida before tropical disturbance Ten became a tropical depression Friday, sparing coastal Louisiana and Mississippi areas from being hit by a tropical storm. Only two injuries, both minor, were reported in the area about 30 miles northwest of Orlando. 2 to 4 inches of rain was expected, and as much as 6 inches in some areas of the Florida Panhandle.
In the Pacific, Hurricane Ivo was downgraded Friday to a tropical storm and was expected to continue to weaken as it headed toward Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. The storm had sustained winds of about 70 mph and was slowly chugging northeast.

ATLANTIC - A low located west of the Azores is on the verge of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone. This system is expected to move little over the next 12-24 hours then move to the northeast over the open Atlantic.
Another low about 500 nm south of the Cape Verde Islands remains well-organized and has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next few days.
A low over the Yucatan near northern Belize has the potential for some develpment after it moves over open water.

9/21/07 -
Tropical depression 13E was 1186 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (dissipating)
Hurricane IVO was 307 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (extreme uncertainty as to its path)
Tropical depression 14W was 616 nmi W of Agana, Guam.

Atlantic - The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a special tropical disturbance statement at 4 p.m.Thursday, saying a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has not yet developed sufficiently to be named, but could become a storm over the next day or two. Surprisingly, the system is just off the coast of central Florida southwest of St. Petersburg. Radar images out of Tampa show little movement, while satellite loops indicate a northerly drift. The eventual landfall of the storm, which would be named Jerry, is unknown. The St. Petersburg area of Florida will continue to be drenched by swirling bands trying to feed the center of what is expected to become the Jerry storm. Once it does develop, the storm is projected by computer models to head toward New Orleans. Most models do not develop the storm into even a Category 1 hurricane. They predict it will make landfall as a tropical storm, with winds of perhaps 55 mph. A complicated weather pattern has developed in the Gulf and the unpredictability of the setup has made projections mostly incorrect for the past two days. This storm did not cross the state from the east coast, but instead is springing from an upper level low pressure that dropped southwest from a stalled cold front. The east coast swirl of surface low pressure raced off to hit South Carolina beaches with gusty winds and higher-than-normal tides. The fact that an upper level low pressure area is atop the Gulf swirl means slow intensification, experts say. A high pressure system instead would speed development. (satellite photo)

9/20/07 -
Tropical depression 13E was 1159 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IVO was 409 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ivo formed in the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday off Mexico and has become a hurricane on its way to the Baja California peninsula. It is due to curve in toward the coast and hit Baja California early next week. Most of the peninsula is sparsely inhabited desert but Baja California is also home to a beach resort, Los Cabos. Hurricane Henriette slammed into Los Cabos earlier this month, killing a foreign tourist and two fishermen.

Emergency officials in Louisiana were on guard Wednesday as a weather system with the potential to become a tropical storm appeared to be heading toward the state, prompting Shell Oil to announce evacuation plans for hundreds of staff from its rigs in the region. The National Weather Service in its hazardous weather outlook said the low-pressure area could affect southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi Friday night or Saturday and that it would have the potential to become a subtropical or tropical storm. Higher-than-normal tides and coastal flooding were possible Friday into Saturday.
A large area of disturbed weather is over the western Atlantic, the NW Bahamas, the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The environment is gradually becoming favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form as the system moves westward into the eastern Gulf later today.

Typhoon Wipha weakened as it continued to sweep through eastern China early Thursday, but not before killing at least seven, destroying thousands of homes and causing landslides.

9/19/07 -
Tropical storm IVO was 438 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Typhoon WIPHA was 183 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan.

Typhoon Wipha has hit China's densely populated eastern coast but will probably miss the country's financial hub, Shanghai. Wipha will probably pass 100km (60 miles) to the south-west of the city on Wednesday evening local time. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm but could still cause major damage in the area near Shanghai. One man died after being electrocuted as a result of the storm. More than two million people were evacuated from Shanghai and the nearby provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang before the storm landed. Authorities have warned Wipha could still bring extensive flooding, high winds and heavy rains to China's biggest city and surrounding areas.

TROPICAL STORM IVO has become better organized throughout the night. The offical intensity forecast shows strengthening to a hurricane in a day or two.
Another tropical wave in the Pacific is organizing and tropical cyclone formation there is possible within the next 24 hours. The next tropical storm will be named Jerry.

ATLANTIC - A large area of disturbed weather is over the western Atlantic, northern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. Surface pressures are gradually falling and environmental conditions appear favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form over the next day or two. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers, squalls and locally heavy rains over portions of Florida during the next day or two.
In addition to the heavy rain, the low through Thursday will create an onshore flow that will lead to dangerous surf and rip currents from South Carolina to Florida. Coastal flood warnings are in effect. By Thursday, the storm will cross Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico. The low could develop tropical characteristics as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

9/18/07 -
Tropical depression INGRID was 184 nmi NNE of Fort de France, Martinique.
Typhoon WIPHA was 126 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan.


Following on the heels of Nari, a second typhoon (Wipha) is approaching the Korean peninsula. Jeju Island and South and North Jeolla provinces will be see indirect effects from the typhoon by this afternoon. "Along with Jeju Island, the west and south coasts are likely to be hit by the typhoon from Wednesday." Typhoon Nari, which smashed ashore on Jeju Island and southwestern parts of the peninsula Sunday, lost power Monday morning and disappeared off the East Sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan. A total of 18 people were confirmed dead and two were missing. On Jeju Island alone, which was hit hardest by the typhoon, 11 people were killed Sunday night and two were reported missing. About 940 people were evacuated to shelters nationwide. More than 380 houses and 19,000 hectares of farmland were inundated across the country. Thirty-seven fishing boats were destroyed or capsized. A RECORD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL of 590mm pounded Jeju Island until Sunday night, and 325 houses were submerged on the island alone. Most regions in southern parts of the country including Jangheung and Goheung also had more than 250mm of rain.

CHINA was evacuating tens of thousands of people from its financial hub Shanghai on Tuesday in the face of powerful category 4 typhoon Wipha churning towards the east coast. About 200,000 people living in exposed areas in the city of over 14 million would be moved to temporary shelters before evening when Typhoon Wipha is expected to make landfall after swiping the island of Taiwan. Schools, offices and markets were closed on the northern part of Taiwan near the capital, Taipei, where it has been raining steadily since late Monday. It is forecast to swipe Taiwan and head straight up the east coast of China towards Shanghai before heading out to sea again towards the Korean peninsula.

JAPAN - Fukuoka lit up by orange clouds in UNUSUAL weather phenomenon - Central Fukuoka basked in an orange glow on Sunday as rain clouds were lit up by a stream of late sun breaking through a gap in the clouds. The weather caused buildings in the area to turn a sepia color, giving the city an unusual glow. Fukuoka metrological officials said that it had been raining intermittently in Fukuoka on Sunday, but there was a break at dusk, and the sun streamed in, lighting up the clouds. The sun had apparently hit rain clouds that were lying low as a result of Typhoon No. 11 that had passed through the area, causing the clouds to turn orange. "When typhoons occur, the rain clouds don't spread out to cover the whole area; it's easy for them to break up as they spread out. It seems that as this happened, a gap formed in the west, making it easier for the light to come in. Several conditions came together at once to create this unusual phenomenon." (photo)

9/16/07 -
Tropical storm 13W was 423 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Typhoon NARI was 206 nmi WNW of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical depression INGRID was 395 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.

SOUTH KOREA - Powerful typhoon Nari, accompanied by heavy rain, grounded 280 flights and stranded 15,000 passengers on South Korea's southern resort island of Jeju. The weather office, which is expecting Typhoon Nari to hit the mainland late tonight, said the storm had brought more than 200 millimetres of rain to Jeju. Weathermen forecast up to 300 millimetres of rain in the southwest until tomorrow morning. (Weathermen earlier predicted the typhoon would arrive early Monday, but revised the forecast as the typhoon picked up speed.)

Newly born Tropical Storm Ingrid ran into a buzzsaw of crosscutting winds Friday - a lethal combination that demoted it to depression status by Saturday afternoon. Its long-term fate remains uncertain. "The bottom's trying to go one direction and the top's trying to go another. Usually, tropical storms don't like that much." The conflicting winds resulted from an UNUSUAL combination: a zone of high pressure near the ocean's surface, topped by a series of low-pressure zones. The high-pressure zone - known as the Bermuda High - is trying to push the storm's bottom layers toward the west and northwest. But the lows are pushing Ingrid's upper layers to the east or northeast. That pattern will probably persist for the next few days.

9/14/07 -
Tropical depression HUMBERTO was 22 nmi ENE of Galveston, Texas.
Tropical storm INGRID was 642 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Typhoon NARI was 143 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Hurricane Humberto sneaked up on southeast Texas overnight and crashed ashore Thursday with heavy rains and 80-mph winds, killing at least one person. Humberto didn't exist until late Wednesday afternoon, and wasn't even a tropical storm until almost midday, strengthening from a tropical depression with 35-mph winds to a hurricane with 85-mph winds in just 18 hours. "To put this development in perspective — NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. It would be nice to know, someday, why this happened." The system rapidly became a Category 1 hurricane, then weakened to a tropical storm by midmorning and bore into central Louisiana. Roads were flooded and power was knocked out, but the greatest concern was heavy rain falling in areas already inundated by a wet summer. Humberto made landfall near the same spot Hurricane Rita did in 2005, and areas of southwest Louisiana not fully recovered from Rita were bracing for more misery. "It was amazing to go to sleep to a tropical storm and wake up to a hurricane. What are you going to do? You couldn't get up and drive away. You couldn't run for it. You just have to hunker down." One man died in east Texas when the carport at his home collapsed on him. "It's a very compact storm. The strongest winds are very close to the center of circulation. The hurricane force winds only go about 15 miles." At 10 a.m. CDT, Humberto's center was about 75 miles west-northwest of Lafayette, La., moving northeast at nearly 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, but it was expected to weaken into a tropical depression by early today.

Tropical Storm Ingrid,which formed Wednesday far in the open Atlantic, and newly upgraded from a tropical depression, moved slowly last night through the distant Atlantic and forecasters said its growth prospects seemed limited during the next few days. The storm remained about 800 miles from the outer Caribbean islands and more than 2,000 miles from Florida. The five-day forecast, subject to a wide margin of error, carried the system on a northwest course that avoided the Caribbean, but still pointed in the general direction of the Bahamas. Ingrid soon is expected to confront crosswinds from the west that will limit its ability to intensify. The official forecast predicts that the system will fall below tropical storm strength on Monday as it passes to the northeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, though it could reintensify later next week.

This year's 12th Pacific typhoon "Falcon" (international code name Nari) has intensified and continues to move west-northwest, even as another low-pressure area was spotted east of Central Luzon. State weather forecasters said the storm will not directly affect any part of the Philippines but warned of possible flash floods and landslides in low-lying and mountainous areas. "Falcon" packed maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph, and was moving west-northwest at 19 kph. By Saturday morning, it was expected to be 850 kms northeast of Batanes or 180 kms north-northwest of Okinawa, Southern Japan.

9/13/07 -
Tropical depression 08 was 771 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane HUMBERTO was 22 nmi ENE of Galveston, Texas.
Tropical depression 12W was 453 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Huberto is the first hurricane to hit the U.S. in 2 years. A tropical storm as it approached the southeast Texas coast, Humberto was upgraded to a category one hurricane early today, shortly before it made landfall. The center of the storm moved onshore a few miles east of High Island at about 2:15 a.m. Radar indicated over 10 inches of rain had fallen over the eastern portion of Chambers County as the storm moved over the coast. At 1:15 a.m., the center of the hurricane was about 20 miles east of Galveston and about 15 miles south of High Island. It was moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. Houston is expected to escape the worst of Humberto. The area expected to be hit the hardest is in the far southeast corner of Texas from Galveston Island eastward. It includes the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas. Forecasters warned residents along a 270-mile stretch of the coastline extending from southwest of the Houston/Galveston area into southwestern Louisiana to brace for heavy rains and possible flooding. Tropical storms typically are significant rainmakers. (map)

Tropical Depression 08L, approaching the Lesser Antilles, is expected to reach tropical storm strength, becoming Tropical Storm Ingrid, the ninth named storm of the 2007 Hurricane Season. It could threaten Haiti next week. A tropical wave is moving over Haiti today causing heavy rain in some regions and saturating the ground ahead of possible hurricane conditions next week.

9/12/07 -
Tropical depression GABRIELLE was 241 nmi ESE of Nantucket, Massachusetts.
Tropical wave may turn into Ingrid, head toward Caribbean - A tropical wave in the central Atlantic was expected to strengthen into a tropical depression, possibly as early as today. Feeding off warm waters, it could develop into a tropical storm or a hurricane. If so, it would be named Ingrid. "We're seeing a gradual increase in organization. We think conditions are conducive for continued development." Models initially point it northwest toward the Lesser Antilles. On Monday evening, the tropical wave was about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, moving northwest at 10-15 mph. The hurricane center also was monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico that could possibly develop. It appeared headed toward southern Texas. [This storm developed first and was named Humberto].

JAPAN - Authorities restored power to part of a village that had effectively been isolated for four days as of Monday after last week's typhoon, leaving its disproportionately high number of elderly residents cut off from the outside world. Typhoon No. 9 (Fitnow) lashed the Oshiozawa district of Nanmoku, Gunma Prefecture. Water supplies still remain disrupted in some parts of Nanmoku after Typhoon No. 9 triggered landslips that cut off road access. As of Monday morning, 236 villagers among 108 households remained stranded due to crippled roads. Officials reported large-scale mudslides and disappeared road shoulders stretching 30 meters in places. Most of the roads in these settlements were impassable since they were covered with soil, rocks and debris. Daily life in a rural village like Nanmoku is next to impossible without motor transport. (photo)

Seeding a hurricane with microscopic dust could sharply reduce its force, according to a study which calculated that the technique might have spared New Orleans from the devastating power of Katrina in 2005. In computer simulations, scientists showed that sowing tiny moisture-seeking particles into the lower reaches of a hurricane would prevent the formation of rain and reduce temperatures, starving the storm of its source of energy. The process "creates clouds with a large number of small drops that fall very slowly, floating with air molecules, and are less likely to collide with each other and coalesce into rain drops". It would take five to 10 Lockheed C-130s cargo planes to disperse some 200 tonnes per hour of particles so small - less than one millionth of a metre across - that they would be emitted in the form of smoke. The planes would be hundreds of kilometres from the eye of the hurricane, and thus out of harm's way.

9/11/07 -
Tropical storm DANAS was 925 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression GABRIELLE was 200 nmi SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Tropical Storm Danas will continue to pull away from the Japanese coast, and is not expected to threaten any land areas for the remainder of its life as a tropical storm. Some lingering large waves are possible along Japan's coastline, but they should be gone by the end of the day on Monday. Another area of disturbed weather to the south of Japan has some potential to strengthen into a tropical storm by Thursday, and could start to have impacts on southern Japan as early as Tuesday morning.

DOMINICA - A Tropical Wave has caused widespread damage in Dominica, triggering landslides, knocking out power in some areas and causing the closure of the island's main airport. Although weather officials are predicting improved weather conditions throughout the rest of the day on Monday, most of the capital Rosseau remained closed as the Tropical Wave was making its way across the country bringing with it heavy rains and thunderstorms. "We could see many more landslides coming down, rock fall, so whatever people do they have to do it cautiously." For some parts of the country utility service was disrupted. All schools and some public buildings remain closed. (photo)
ST. MAARTEN - A Flash Flood advisory was in effect for St. Maarten as of Sunday morning. The advisory was issued by Metrological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Sunday because of the expected heavy rains over the next 24 hours. The heavy rains are from a tropical wave with a developing low pressure area to the east of the North Eastern Caribbean, which is advancing towards the west rather slowly. Based on the weather report, with the slow forward motion of this wave, there remained a risk of some localised flooding during early Monday morning and through the night. The metrological service also advised small vessels operators to exercise caution, as temporarily choppy seas are expected due to the forecasted heavy showers with lightning and thunder. In or near strong shower and thunder activity, gusty winds could generate higher than normal waves.

Gabrielle's UNUSUAL structure - Tropical Storm Gabrielle had an interesting evolution of structure on Saturday and Sunday, September 8-9. On both days it had a surface low that was not co-located with deep convection (showers and thunderstorms). But the position of the low changed location relative to its convection between the two days. Something interesting and UNUSUAL then happened on Sunday afternoon. The clouds were growing to the west side of the surface low where the surface winds were from the west or northwest. The rainband did not head for the surface low center, but instead headed for the convection offshore! It was inflow toward the mid-level circulation center of the convection offshore. That's pretty UNUSUAL! Usually surface air converges toward the surface low pressure center. Gabrielle was a messed up storm from the get go. It looked like she was going to form, then she fell apart and reformed and fell apart until she finally got her act together and became subtropical storm Gabrielle, then tropical storm Gabrielle. After she hit the coast of North Carolina, Gabrielle just fell apart it seemed. The freakiest thing was how the low moved away from the storm. (satellite photos)

RUSSIA - typhoon Fitow hit the Russian Far East coastland on September 7. It is known that the typhoon has flooded 4 local villages populated by over 2000 people. Within 24 hours a monthly amount of rain fell in the region and made several rivers spill over their banks. Heavy rains and strong winds broke functioning of the power lines, washed out the roads and bridges, several districts of the coastland were flooded, and the local population was evacuated. Now the situation has been improving, the rains have stopped, and the water is leaving the populated localities. (photo)

9/10/07 -
Tropical storm DANAS was 524 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression GABRIELLE was 83 nmi NE of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle buffeted the North Carolina coast on Sunday with gusty winds and some rain but weakened as it began turning back to head out over the Atlantic Ocean. The blustery core of the storm came ashore along the Cape Lookout National Seashore shortly before noon, kicking up the surf and sand and bringing scattered showers to the barrier islands known as the Outer Banks. The six-month hurricane season reaches its historical peak today, having already produced two of the most ferocious hurricanes ever to tear through the Caribbean, Dean and Felix. Both those storms became maximum-strength Category 5 hurricanes before slamming into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Central America, respectively. Conditions off the U.S. East Coast, where Gabrielle formed, are not currently as favorable for tropical cyclones as the deep warm water of the western Caribbean where Dean and Felix found the fuel they needed to grow into monster storms. The hurricane center said it was watching three other areas of disturbed weather in case they showed signs of developing into tropical cyclones - one southwest of the Cape Verde islands, another a few hundred miles (km) east of the Lesser Antilles, and the third in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
FLORIDA - A well-known surfer drowned Sunday and about 200 other swimmers off the Florida coast were pulled from the rough seas churned up by Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Several other swimmers nearly drowned in the surf. Beach patrol officials in Volusia County reported a "monster wave" of rescues for this time of the year during a stretch of a few hours Sunday. "It's unreal. I must've seen beach patrol go back and forth, I mean, three, four, five times already within an hour." "It's really scary. I'm in shock. I've lived here for seven years and I haven't seen anything like this." Lifeguards said the dangerous conditions could continue well into the upcoming week.
Lifeguards off Florida's east coast were also busy with rescues Saturday in rough waters generated by Tropical Storm Gabrielle. A 16-year-old was hospitalized when a large wave threw her head-first into the sand and several other swimmers needed to be rescued from the rip currents. Beach officials in New Smyrna Beach said they were seeing six to nine feet seas and dangerous conditions over the weekend.

9/9/07 -
Tropical storm DANAS was 522 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm GABRIELLE was 104 nmi ESE of Wilmington, North Crolina.

Typhoon Fitow moved out to the Sea of Okhotsk Friday after cutting across Japan, leaving at least two dead and 82 others injured in torrential rains and violent winds. It whipped through the Tokyo metropolitan area Friday morning. The typhoon destroyed the Kanto and Tohoku districts shortly after coming ashore near the Kanagawa Prefecture city of Odawara. The typhoon caused severe flooding and left several people stranded. It was the first typhoon in two years to hit Tokyo and its vicinity directly.

Tropical storm Gabrielle aiming at North Carolina Coast. Like a stone thrown in a lake, Tropical Storm Gabrielle sent ripples of concern toward the south shore of Long Island, New York, Saturday as it spun toward the mid-Atlantic coast. "Even with a storm that's going to miss us by a couple of hundred miles, you're going to see an impact." The 2- and 3-foot waves hitting South Shore beaches Saturday are predicted to grow to 4 feet through today and Monday, as long-period waves (swells) generated by Gabrielle arrived from off the North Carolina shore. Swells up to 5 feet are predicted through Tuesday night. Gabrielle was 150 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, N.C., with maximum winds of 40 mph at of 8 p.m., moving northwest about 9 mph. The storm was expected to strengthen to maximum winds of 65 mph as it went ashore near Cape Hatteras, N.C., Saturday afternoon. Gabrielle is not expected to develop into a hurricane and will likely be forced to the Northeast by westerlies coming south from Canada.
Gabrielle was initially a subtropical cyclone, which is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some characteristics of an extratropical cyclone. They have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center. Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold by three degrees Celsius, or five degrees Fahrenheit, lying around 23 degrees Celsius. This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the hurricane season. Examples include Subtropical Storm Ana (which became Tropical Storm Ana) in mid-April of the 2003 hurricane season and Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

Change in hurricane paths: Meteorologists monitoring UNUSUAL PATTERN - Caribbean weather forecasters are keeping their eyes on a recent trend which saw intense hurricanes forming or tracking a more southerly direction than was the norm, a top meteorologist has disclosed. The deputy director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre described the southern hurricane activity as part of a "STRANGE" weather pattern. "About 10 years ago, we saw one develop in the south Atlantic where your professor would tell you that never occurs. Unfortunately, the two hurricanes have been Category Five hurricanes, they made landfall as Category Five hurricanes. It is the first time in history and we have data going back to 1885; this has never happened." A high-pressure system, known as the Bermuda High, kept both 'Dean' and 'Felix' on a westerly track. "We can start to pray that the Bermuda High will weaken so that the systems that do form, and they will form, will go more into the Atlantic as they did in the past. The one inhibiting factor that could occur would be if, for example, an El Niño were to develop quickly in the Pacific, which would then tend to move the activity more into the Pacific than the Atlantic, but we are certainly not seeing that right now. So the outlook is right now for people to keep the plywood that you've been using and look out. We could easily get a third threat." Extreme hurricanes like 'Dean' and 'Felix' are part of a period of high activity, which began back in 1995, and is expected to last for another 20 to 25 years. 'Dean' and 'Felix' also surprised weather experts with their rapid intensification and speed, but this was attributed to warmer land and sea temperatures. "If the Caribbean is warmer than it normally is, then you would expect stronger hurricanes and that is exactly what occurred in the Caribbean. Hurricanes Dean and Felix impacted several Caribbean and Latin American countries.

9/7/07 -
Tropical storm FITOW was 93 nmi N of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression HENRIETTE was 388 nmi ESE of San Diego, California.

Perplexed forecasters continue to watch an area of disturbed weather northeast of Florida that computers say could bring a tropical storm to the Carolinas coast this weekend. But the system has defied the computers' predictions for three days and failed to organize, its thunderstorm clouds sheared apart by strong upper-level westerly winds. Emergency service officials, meanwhile, are torn between worrying about the impact of high winds and waves on the coast, and thinking such a storm's rainfall might be a godsend for the drought-parched Carolinas. The area of showers and thunderstorms is between Florida and Bermuda, and computer-generated forecasts predict it will become a tropical system and move toward the Outer Banks in a few days. The National Weather Service issued small craft advisories Thursday evening along the Outer Banks, south to Jacksonville. On the South Carolina coast, rip current warnings are in effect. Waves were moderate Thursday evening, averaging 2 to 4 feet, but there were reports of some moderate rip currents along the shore. "It is expected to drift into an area more favorable for development. So in another day or so, things could change."
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are forecasting the storm will make landfall on the Carolina coastline later Sunday or Monday, perhaps as a hurricane.

The death toll from Hurricane Felix rose to 98 in Nicaragua and Honduras, as rescuers hunt for survivors and bodies. Dozens of people are still missing and rescuers are searching the open seas and remote jungle. Many of the victims were reportedly travelling by boat when they were hit by giant waves, while others appeared to have been sucked into the sea from their houses on the coast. Tens of thousands of people have been left homeless.

Typhoon Fitow has brought high winds and torrential rain to central Japan, killing one person and leaving several others missing. Train services and flights in the Tokyo region were cancelled and more than 80,000 houses left without power. One man died after being hit by a falling tree and rescuers were searching a river for homeless people thought to have been washed away. A number of homeless people who slept in shacks on the banks of the Tama River were swept away by the rising waters. About 50 people were injured by the typhoon. Fitow is expected to move northwards over the country, bringing further heavy rain, but it has lost power and has now been downgraded to a tropical storm.
According to Russian meteorologists, the Far East of Russia will also face the effects of tropical storm Fitnow which is expected to continue moving north. Although the typhoon will have become much weaker by the time it reaches the Russian coastal line, on September 7 (today) it is predicted to cause heavy rains and strong winds in the Primorsky Region of Russia. Later, going north, the typhoon will turn into an extra-tropical cyclone. Heavy rains are also expected to take place in the Khabarovsk Region of Russia, southern Sakhalin, and in the south of the Kuril Spit. The heavy rains will take place along with strong winds (up to 20 metres per second at the coastal lines) that may cause some difficulties with the functioning of ports` services and will interrupt surface travel in some areas of the Russian Far East.

9/6/07 -
Typhoon FITOW was 230 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression FELIX was 118 nmi NNW of Managua, Nicaragua.
Tropical storm HENRIETTE was 220 nmi N of La Paz, Mexico.

A fierce typhoon is barrelling towards Tokyo, leaving the Japanese capital at risk of floods and landslides. Typhoon Fitow, packing winds of up to 126km/h, is currently 500km south of the city, over the Pacific Ocean. But the slow-moving storm is already whipping up towering six-metre high waves around the island of Hachijojima. Heavy rains have swollen rivers across Japan, and forecasters fear a repeat of the October 2004 typhoon which left dozens of people dead. The worst of the weather is expected to reach the Tokyo area by early Friday, local time. Experts say it may have weakened slightly by then, but are warning people to prepare for trouble. "Given the slow speed of the typhoon, we have to brace ourselves for heavy rainfall and strong winds that last for a long time." Prolonged poor weather is forecast to increase the chances of floods and landslides. Rain has already forced the suspension of railway services in provinces north of Tokyo and the cancellation of a dozen flights. Coastal expressways have also been partially closed due to high waves. Several typhoons have hit Japan in the last two months, killing several people and injuring dozens of others.

The death toll from Hurricane Felix has risen to at least 38 people, with more than 200 missing, authorities in Nicaragua have said. The storm hit land in north-east Nicaragua on Tuesday as a maximum strength category-five hurricane before dissipating to a tropical depression. Felix destroyed thousands of flimsy homes on the Central American country's low-lying Caribbean coast. Up to 9,000 homes, many of them built of wood and tin, were destroyed and as many as 50,000 people were displaced by the hurricane. The storm also struck Honduras, where up to 20,000 people were evacuated from coastal areas.
Desperate families searched through the early morning hours Thursday for scores of missing Nicaraguans on the Caribbean coast where Hurricane Felix blew away villages and flooded rivers. Some 150 Miskito Indians who were adrift on the ocean clinging to buoys, canoes and slabs of wood were rescued by authorities. Nine of those rescued were in serious condition. “We believe there are many others out there floating on the sea.” Felix also wiped out crops and damaged most of the 70 tons of food and emergency goods that had been flown in before the storm. On Wednesday, it was hard to find a building that wasn’t damaged. Puerto Cabezas’ hospital was filled with water, and doctors attended to the injured at an improvised clinic. The remains of Felix were still dumping rain Wednesday on Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and thousands of evacuees anxiously stayed away from shaky hillside slums and swollen rivers. (photo)

Category-one Hurricane Henriette was poised to hit Mexico for the second time in two days. Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings were in effect for the east coast of Baja California and the northwest coast of mainland Mexico. A coastal storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide was expected. Five to ten inches of rain is forecast for northwest Mexico, with as much as 15 inches expected in the higher terrain. The heavy rain could trigger potentially deadly flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from Hurricane Henriette will spread drenching thunderstorms into southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico and far West Texas. The heavy rain could lead to dangerous flash floods in the dry Desert Southwest. Already, there is flooding in Central Texas. A weak disturbance over the Gulf Coast and abundant moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico are combining to produce showers and thunderstorms from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley.

A low pressure system off the coast of Florida could develop into a tropical depression as early as today and could impact the East Coast by this weekend. It will be the seventh tropical depression of 2007. Its just a matter of time for the right ingredients to come together that will let the system evolve from a non-tropical gale into a tropical cyclone. The circulation is spinning and satellite wind estimates show 30 knot winds, but thunderstorms are being blown away from the circulation center preventing intensification. This should change as the jet stream lifts away allowing for more favorable winds to develop. Ship reports nearby have indicated wind speeds around 25 mph. It could take a while, but the Gale will likely become Gabrielle by Friday. Some computer predictions indicate the system may drift east away from Jacksonville, Florida, today before a ridge of high pressure pushes the system back towards the Carolinas. The major threat appears to be to the Carolinas, however, this system is still in its early stages. At the very least, swells from this cyclone will soon be increasing along the Florida coast.

9/5/07 -
Typhoon FITOW was 381 nmi S of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm FELIX was 120 nmi NNE of Managua, Nicaragua.
Hurricane HENRIETTE was 47 nmi NNE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Hurricanes swept ashore in Nicaragua and Mexico within hours of each other Tuesday, the FIRST TIME ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC HURRICANES HAVE MADE LANDFALL ON THE SAME DAY since the National Hurricane Center began keeping records in the 1940s. Felix, which was expected to dump up to 25 inches of rain in the Honduran capital, Tegucigalpa, and the Guatemalan capital, Guatemala City, slashed through small villages in Nicaragua, turning thin walls into kindling, toppling trees and kicking up a heavy storm surge. The storm confounded meteorologists. Originally forecast to slam into Belize today, it veered sharply south late Monday and early Tuesday, making landfall in a coastal region of Nicaragua populated primarily by small groups of Miskito Indians, many of whom refused to evacuate.
It is the FIRST TIME ON RECORD THAT TWO ATLANTIC HURRICANES MADE LANDFALL AS CATEGORY-FIVE STORMS IN A SINGLE SEASON.
Hurricane Felix killed four people in Nicaragua and caused important damage before weakening into a tropical storm. Felix hit land in north-east Nicaragua as a category-five hurricane - the maximum strength. On Tuesday it caused widespread damage when it ravaged the town of Puerto Cabezas, peeling roofs off shelters and a police station, knocking down electric poles and destroying or damaging 5,000 homes, and damaging a church. Felix weakened as it travelled west later on Tuesday. However the storm is expected to bring heavy rains to southern Honduras and Guatemala, where hillside villages are vulnerable to mudslides. Hurricane Felix comes only two weeks after the region was hit by category-five Hurricane Dean.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Henriette has hit Mexico's Baja peninsula, by the Pacific Ocean, with winds approaching 130km/h (80mph). It struck Los Cabos, a popular tourist destination, generating 4.5m (15ft) waves and forcing the closure of airports. (photos / map)
HURRICANE HENRIETTE lashed Mexico's Pacific beach and golf resort of Los Cabos with high winds and rain after killing a foreign tourist on its approach. Henriette carried maximum sustained winds of 140km/h, making it a relatively weak Category One hurricane, as it zoned in on Los Cabos on the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A middle-aged foreign woman was killed walking on the beach yesterday as the storm's approach sent four metre waves crashing into the resort. "She was walking very close to the sea. The swell sucked her in and smashed her against some rocks." Hundreds of people were still in storm shelters in the southwestern state of Guerrero after the storm cut off entire villages with flooding or mudslides. The U.S. National Hurricane Centre warned of coastal storm surges of up to almost a metre and isolated downpours of up to 38cm in mountainous areas. "These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides." If Henriette crosses Baja California and dumps rain on mainland Mexico, it could harm large corn and tomato crops in the state of Sinaloa.
Hurricane Henriette is history repeating itself. Remarkably, on September 4, 1995, another Hurricane Henriette hit Baja California in nearly the same area expected to take the brunt of this year's storm.
A low pressure system off the coast of Florida is producing persistent showers and thunderstorms in the open water between Florida and the Bahamas. The Hurricane Center reports that a high pressure system building over the Northeast could trap the system over the warm water of the Gulf Stream, allowing it to gain strength. By the end of the week, the low could develop into a tropical storm that could impact the East Coast from Georgia to southern New England. The Hurricane Center is also monitoring a developing tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, which could develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. (maps)

Will Gabrielle be the first East Coast Storm of the Season? For the past couple of days, weather observers have been watching closely the tropical air mass off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida. Online gambling websites stopped taking bets on how many hurricanes would hit the US mainland following last year's hoopla. But Tropical Storm Gabrielle (assuming it gets to that stage) appears to be custom made for the oddsmakers. That's because this bizarre acting storm has the potential to land just about anywhere. The favored track of Gabby takes it out to sea, but the odds offerings would be aplenty in terms of landfalls. Steering currents are such that Gabrielle is anticipated to loop around off the coast of North Florida the next few days before taking aim somewhere along the East Coast or out to sea this weekend. "Anyone who’s lived in South Florida since before 2004 probably has vivid memories of Hurricane Jeanne loop-de-looping in the same neighborhood, so I won’t feel reassured until this thing is definitely heading elsewhere. I’m hoping that means out to sea." The only thing the hurricane models can agree on is that this disturbance is likely to develop further - anything from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane is possible. Following its circling off the North Florida coast line, models have the disturbance potentially threaten (take your pick):
UKMET: North Carolina on Saturday
NOGAPS: Florida on Friday
HWRF: New York on Saturday
ECMWF: South Carolina on Friday
Canadian: North Carolina on Saturday

9/4/07 -
Hurricane FELIX was 122 nmi ESE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.
Hurricane HENRIETTE was 170 nmi SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon FITOW was 510 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan. (its forward speed has slowed)

HURRICANE FELIX - Its sudden formation and rapid strengthening into a category 5 storm are VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED. "Since 1900, only four years have recorded more than a single Category 5 hurricane. Only one year — 2005 — has seen more than two." This hurricane season is "UNPRECEDENTED," as the "first two hurricanes both reached maximum intensity." "It is unprecedented for the first two hurricanes of the season to reach this level of intensity." The "similar paths taken by the two hurricanes is a result of a persistent high pressure weather system which is usually located further northeast in the Atlantic around Bermuda. The high is currently positioned over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, directing the tracks to the western Caribbean where Atlantic sea surface temperatures are hottest. The warmth of this water intensifies any storms that pass over the area." "The location of the high pressure system is currently protecting the U.S., as storm tracks are being kept further south. However, we are not yet halfway through the hurricane season and stable weather tends to break down during September, so there is no guarantee that the protection will remain in place."
In just 15 hours on Sunday, Felix jumped from category two (winds of 160km per hour) to a category five. The speed at which Felix reached maximum strength was ONE OF THE FASTEST EVER RECORDED. Felix was so powerful that one of the planes the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regularly flies over hurricanes to collect data was caught in a rapid updraft-downdraft cycle. The violent cycle placed four times the force of gravity on those aboard the aircraft. "Four Gs can put a fair strain on the aircraft, and it also got some very heavy hail that can rip the paint off the plane." The airplane was ordered back to its base in the US Virgin Islands. Though extremely powerful, Felix "has a very small wind field," with hurricane-force winds extending 45km from the centre. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185km.

FELIX & HENRIETTE - Thousands of residents and tourists have been fleeing coastal areas in Central America as Hurricane Felix churns through the Caribbean. It weakened to a category four storm but strengthened again, packing winds of 240km/h (150mph), and forecasters warn it is "extremely dangerous". The hurricane is expected to hit the coast on the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm could dump up to 30cm (12in) of rain in isolated parts of northern Honduras and north-eastern Nicaragua, possibly bringing flash floods and mudslides. Despite the hurricane being extremely powerful, winds are confined relatively close to the eye of the storm. In Belize, people were said to be stocking up on emergency supplies and boarding up windows. On Sunday, Felix struck Aruba and two of the Netherlands Antilles islands near Venezuela - Bonaire and Curacao - but damage appeared slight. Meanwhile, there are concerns over Hurricane Henriette, which caused landslides in the Mexican city of Acapulco that killed six people. The storm is currently 280km (175 miles) from Mexico's Baja California peninsula, which it is expected to hit this afternoon.

TRINDIAD - Flooding and landslides were reported in parts of North Trinidad after feeder bands from Tropical Storm Felix caused torrential rainfall and gusty winds.

9/2/07 -
Typhoon FITOW was 699 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.
Hurricane FELIX was 166 nmi NW of Caracas, Venezuela.
Tropical depression GIL was 712 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm HENRIETTE was 95 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Storm warnings have been issued for the eastern Caribbean, as category-one Hurricane Felix rushes towards the Netherlands Antilles. With winds of up to 120km/h (75mph), the strengthening storm is due to pass near the island of Aruba on Sunday. Felix - the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season - ruined orchards and demolished a concert venue when it hit Grenada on Saturday. It is expected to pass Honduras and Jamaica before it hits Belize by Wednesday. "We are forecasting it to be a category-three hurricane in the north-western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week." Meanwhile, tropical storm Henriette has caused fatal landslides in Mexico. Six people died in landslides caused by Henriette in the Mexican city of Acapulco. On Sunday, Henriette could also become a hurricane. The two storms come two weeks after Hurricane Dean, which killed 18 people as it crossed the Caribbean.

Typhoon Fitow picked up strength as it continued churning in the western Pacific Ocean on a track toward mainland Japan. At 6 p.m. Friday, the strong Category 1 storm had maximum sustained winds of 92 mph with gusts to 115 mph. It was 800 miles east-northeast of Iwo Jima, moving northwest at about 7 mph. Fitow was expected to intensify. But even if it does reach the Tokyo area sometime this week, the typhoon should lose some punch as it encounters cooler waters.

AUSTRALIA - Kiwi Ken says a cyclone is on the way for the Sunshine Coast just after Christmas this year. Ken bases his predictions on the pattern of the moon, a system very popular in ancient times. “Common sense alone dictates that if the moon has an effect on the water, then the moon is going to be doing something to the air as well.” Based on Ken’s calculations, the Sunshine Coast will be hit with some extreme weather from December 26-29, followed by another “whang bang” lot of weather from January 27 next year. We can expect a big storm on October 27, and November 21-25 will be the “worst weather of the month”. You can check out Ken’s site at www.predictweather.com.

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8/31/07 -
Typhoon FITOW was 955 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression 11E was 236 nmi SE of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical storm GIL was 330 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (forecast to become a hurricane in about 72 hours.)

Typhoon Fitow, expected to gain strength in the western Pacific Ocean, could threaten the Tokyo area around the middle part of next week. Shifts in its track remain possible but computer models put Typhoon Fitow on a path toward mainland Japan. At 3 p.m. Thursday, the Category 1 storm was a minimal typhoon with sustained winds of 74 mph and gusts to 92 mph. It was moving north at 10 mph but forecast to turn due west by Monday. Intensification is expected as Fitow approaches Tokyo. By Tuesday, it could reach super typhoon status with 150 mph sustained winds — gusting to above 180 mph — as it again tracks north off the central Japan coast.

8/30/07 -
Typhoon FITOW was 821 nmi NE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Tropical storm GIL was 196 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Fitow, this year's ninth named storm in the western Pacific, came into being yesterday afternoon at a location about 1,500 km northeast of Guam. Fitow, still 3,000 km from Taiwan, was moving north at 13 kph, and chances of the storm hitting Taiwan are very slim. The storm has a 100-km radius, with maximum center winds of 18 meters per second and gusts of up to 25 meters per second. From Aug. 31, Fitow will likely change direction from north to northwest, and increase its speed slightly from 13 kph to 14 kph, according to meteorologists. They predict that the tropical storm could head toward Japan.

ATLANTIC - Three areas of disturbed weather are being tracked by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
An area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic is primarily associated with a non-tropical low centered about 260 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for development during the next few days. The low is expected to drift southward. This system off the Carolinas may become a player in Florida's weather. "It's dropping southward and it is possible the system will spin-up."
Showers and thunderstorms primarily located over the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. This activity is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or so and will be monitored for any signs of development. (satellite photos)

BELIZE - Aid workers in Belize are calling for international support after the effects of Hurricane Dean have put thousands at risk for contracting deadly diseases. The country is now a breeding ground for potentially life-threatening cases of diarrhea, stomach cramps, and fever. "The scarcity of drinking water and water for sanitation has led many people to use poor quality water from previously abandoned wells and being exposed to an increased risk of water-borne diseases." Over 10 percent of the country is still without electricity, leaving an estimated 30,000 people without power. Further estimates say about 275 homes were destroyed, and about 2,000 people have been displaced as a result of the storm. Crops and fields have been ruined, leaving over 20,000 people unemployed.

8/29/07 -
Tropical storm FITOW was 706 nmi NE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

ATLANTIC - There's a new area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave that is in the same general area where Hurricane Dean was formed three weeks ago. In other words, this tropical wave is nearer to Africa than to the Americas. And while this area of storms is being watched by hurricane forecasters in Miami, it is described as "limited and disorganized." Development into a tropical system "if any, is expected to be slow to occur." Three months remain in the 2007 hurricane season, and only five tropical storms have been named thus far. That's half the normal number of named storms at this time of summer. None of the five named storms in 2007 has impacted Florida, a repeat - so far - of the quiet, 2006 hurricane season for Floridians. Overall, the tropics are clear of tropical storms in the final week of August.

8/28/07 -
No current tropical storms.
NIGERIA - General apprehension over the reported threat of a tropical storm still envelopes Benue state as the people are still afraid of leaving their homes since day-break yesterday, even when it became clear that the threatening bad weather had subsided. The forecast of the threatening storm was repeatedly aired over the radio, just as the state government warned the people against staying out doors past 10pm Saturday when the disaster was expected to strike. The Special Adviser on Media and Public Affairs reported that the threat was coming from Chad and would sweep through Maiduguri, Yola and Taraba states where it was expected to reach Benue state by past 10 to 11pm. The weather forecasters said the storm would travel at over 70 kms per hour. The forecast threatened normal activities in Makurdi and environs as businesses were generally paralyzed, with people retiring for the night into homes as early as 7pm. The threat closed eateries and drinking joints earlier than expected and commuters became stranded with the complete absence of commercial buses and motorcycles. The storm never came as forecast by Nigerian meteorologists. Rather, the sky was clear and the moon shone bright. A rainbow, indicating an UNUSUAL weather change, was also observed at full circle around the bright moon at between 9pm and 10:30pm when the storm was expected. Throughout the night, the weather was calm as a normal breeze blew with the usual rainy season's cooling effects. Residents spoken to said they were disappointed with the forecast as the announcement dislocated their normal activities. However, they were thankful that the disaster never came after all. "Everybody was apprehensive. And let me not deceive you, we are still apprehensive because anything can happen. We can't say how or when."

8/27/07 -
No current tropical storms.

CALIFORNIA - Sunday morning, residents of coastal Orange County were met by an UNUSUAL summer thunderstorm that moved north from the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to leftovers from Hurricane Dean. A hail storm and rain fall went through the Big Bear area Saturday. At least two bands of storms were poised to hit the Los Angeles basin. The storms are tropical moisture fed up from the tropics by the low pressure system once known as category 5 Hurricane Dean, and the system still has a center, currently 140 miles southwest of downtown Los Angeles. The system caused a FREAK downpour in Escondido, dropping almost 2 inches of rain in barely an hour. Thunderstorms rarely flow west of the Santa Ana Mountains because the air here is typically too stable to support such systems. That wasn't the case Sunday. Unstable air rolled in off the ocean, from the west coast of Mexico, whipping up thunderheads that were about 40,000 feet high, or roughly 40 times taller than the Eiffel Tower.

8/26/07 -
No current tropical storms.

8/24/07 -
No current tropical storms.

Hurricane Dean saved some of its worst for last, killing eight people after shrinking to a rainy tropical depression over central Mexico. In the state of Puebla, a family of four died when a mudslide hit a highway overpass Thursday and crushed their car. Wednesday, a government official died in a car wreck while checking for damage during the storm, and a 76-year-old man was killed when part of his house fell on him. A 35-year-old woman and a 14-year-old girl died after a roof collapsed Wednesday in the state of Hidalgo. Another man died trying to ford a rain-swollen river in Veracruz state on Wednesday, but because he ignored warnings from rescue personnel, state officials said they would not count his death in the storm total. The same held for a man who was reported electrocuted by power lines while trying to secure his roof before the storm hit Wednesday morning. The storm toll in Mexico brought the total number of fatalities associated with Dean to 28. The hurricane had reached its full strength, Category 5, when it struck a relatively isolated stretch of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. So far no deaths have been reported there, although property damage was extensive. About 90,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in Mexico , with an estimated 60,000 people in shelters overnight Wednesday. The Yucatan lost nearly 400 square miles of crops. After Dean landed on the Veracruz coastline Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane, it quickly began to lose strength. Within hours it was downgraded to a tropical depression. But its arrival near the end of central Mexico's rainy season caused some landslides and flooding.
Heavy rains from Hurricane Dean pounded western Mexico today after the storm killed at least nine people in a three-day rampage across the breadth of the country. Dean, which has weakened to a tropical depression, caused two rivers and a reservoir to overflow in the mountains of Hidalgo state and dumped rain as far away as Jalisco, which lies on the Pacific coast. Dean damaged Mayan villages and beach resorts in a run across the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, then churned through the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and slammed into Mexico's eastern coastline.

FLORIDA's Gulf Coast continues to feel the aftermath of what was Hurricane Dean. The Category 5 storm which struck Mexico earlier this week has resulted in extremely dangerous rip-tides from Apalachicola Bay to Pensacola. Red-flags and double red-flags have been flying along Panama City Beach. Word of four-to-seven foot surf swells has brought out surfers from across the country. The normally tranquil Gulf waters appear more like the Pacific Ocean. In several cases, surfers have helped save the lives of people who have gotten caught in the rip-tide. Surfers say it should calm down sometime today.

8/23/07 -
Tropical depression DEAN was 134 nmi SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Dean is now a tropical storm inland over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds had decreased to near 70 mph, 110 km/hr, with higher gusts. However, stronger winds, especially in gusts, were likely over elevated terrain. Continued weakening was expected until Dean dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico last night or early today. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 275 miles, 445 km, mainly to the northeast of the center. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over parts of southern and central Mexico, with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. (satellite photos)

ojected storm paths .
8/22/07 -
Hurricane DEAN was 119 nmi NNE of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. (Dean is now a category one hurricane with a large ragged eye. It is rapidly running out of time to strengthen again before making landfall again over Mexico late today.)

Hurricane Dean has crossed offshore after lashing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, toppling trees and houses and bringing torrential rain. Major tourist resorts were not directly hit, but indigenous Mayan villages were exposed to its full force. There are no reports of deaths in Mexico so far. The eye of the storm came ashore about 170 miles (270km) south of Cancun, early on Tuesday in a sparsely populated area near the town of Majahual, where hundreds of homes were destroyed. It lashed low-lying Mayan communities, and rain, poor communications and impassable roads made it hard to establish how they had fared in the storm. Dean was a Category Five hurricane, the highest level, when it made landfall, but later weakened to Category One. Andrea Montalvo, of the US-based Spanish-language Telemundo television network, said the storm was wreaking havoc in the town of Chetumal, to the east of Majahual. "Inside the hotel it is really bad, every 10 or 15 minutes you can hear windows shattering and people are coming out of their rooms in panic. If this is how it is here in this hotel, which is pretty solid, I don't want to think about how it is there." Further south, most of Belize was without power. Officials in Belize City closed hospitals and urged people to head inland, saying the town's shelters were not strong enough. Dean is thought to have been less damaging than the Category Five Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which lingered over the Yucatan for a day, killing 10 people and wrecking large areas of Cancun. It is the third strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall since records began in the 1850s. Dean is expected to hit Mexico again at about 1300 (1800 GMT) today between Veracruz and Tampico.
Hundreds of homes in the Caribbean town of Majahual collapsed as Dean crumpled steel girders, splintered wooden structures and washed away about half of the immense concrete dock that transformed the sleepy fishing village into Mexico's second-busiest cruise ship destination. The storm surge covered almost the entire town in waist-deep sea water. "It wasn't minutes of terror. It was hours. The walls felt like they were going to explode." Dean's projected path is 645 kilometres south of Texas, where only heavy surf is expected.
List of hurricane damage by country.
The landfall of Hurricane Dean, the strongest hurricane of the year and ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE ATLANTIC STORMS EVER MEASURED, is bound to provoke yet another round of climate change arguments. "If you look at the official records, Dean now fits into a staggering hurricane decade. That’s highly suggestive, if not definitive. And this staggering decade has occurred in part because of anomalously warm ocean temperatures in the hurricane-prone regions. Many scientists question whether you can explain these warm anomalies without invoking global warming as at least part of the cause. So once again, even though Dean was not “caused” by global warming, when considered in its Atlantic context the storm is certainly consistent with the argument that there’s something going on out there that’s new — and more than a little scary."

A tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic should bring rain and thunderstorms to South Florida today and Thursday, but it likely won't develop into a tropical depression or storm. The system, actually a tropical wave, should produce about a half an inch of rain over most of South Florida, with some areas possibly seeing more. On Tuesday evening, it was about 450 miles east of the Bahamas, moving west at 15-20 mph. On Monday, the hurricane center said the disturbance had potential to develop. On Tuesday, the center said system showed no signs of organization and that upper-level winds are unfavorable for it to strengthen.

OREGON - Blame the rainy weather in Oregon on a typhoon near the Philippines. Long-range weather models predicted some rain in the Pacific Northwest from that distant storm in the Pacific Ocean. Despite the recent precipitation, summer has been normal in Oregon, except that July's average temperature was up 3 degrees from normal. Pacific storms half a world away can be the source of all sorts of oddball local weather. In 1962, typhoon remnants caused the state's biggest windstorm on Columbus Day that killed 23 people in Oregon and caused $170 million in damage.

8/21/07 -
Hurricane Dean was 102 nmi SW of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands. (Dean is expected to maintain hurricane status during its entire stay over the Yucatan and it could still regain major hurricane status over the Bay of Campeche before final landfall in about 30 hours.)

Hurricane Dean - Mexican authorities have evacuated tourist resorts and shut down offshore oil facilities ahead of the potentially catastrophic arrival of Hurricane Dean. The storm has reached Category Five - the highest strength - as it rushes towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with winds of up to 160mph (255km/h). Thousands of tourists attempted to leave the resort of Cancun, but some were unable to get a flight. Neighbouring Belize is also bracing itself for the hurricane, which has already claimed at least 11 lives in the eastern Caribbean, but largely spared the Cayman Islands earlier on Monday. The US National Hurricane Centre said Dean has reached "potentially catastrophic" Category Five strength, with sustained winds of 160mph (255km/h) and a storm surge 18ft (5.5m) above normal tide levels. It looks like the biggest threat is going to be for portions of northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula coast of Mexico." Category Five storms are RARE - only three have hit the United States since record-keeping began.

As Hurricane Dean bears down on Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, hurricane watchers are keeping an eye on a new tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean. The band of showers and thunderstorms is located a few hundred miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center states, "Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for development during the next couple of days as this system moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph." At the Weather Underground Web site, two of three computer forecast models that show the system, with current winds of about 25 mph, heading towards the east coast of Florida. But those models can change as the system develops. The Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Norfolk issued a “tropical cyclone formation alert” around noon on Monday.

Thunderstorms caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin are being blamed for the torrential rain in Minnesota, Oklahoma and Texas. Erin dropped up to 1ft (30cm) of rain in southern parts of Minnesota, causing rivers to burst their banks and forcing hundreds of people from their homes. The floods have killed at least six people in Oklahoma, six in Minnesota and one in Texas.
MISSOURI - Remnants of Tropical Storm Erin dumped heavy rain in southwest Missouri on Monday, leaving one town temporarily cut off. Some of the worst damage was in Pleasant Hope, a town of 700 residents near Springfield. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed. Some parts of the town got 15 inches of rain in a four-hour period. For a time, all roads into the town were cut off. "We've never had this kind of water."
PENNSYLVANIA - Heavy rains and strong storms were prompting numerous flood watches and warnings throughout Western Pennsylvania Monday afternoon, as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin interact with an upper level wave.

AUSTRALIA - Cyclonic conditions are expected to hit the southeast corner of Queensland later today, with damaging wind gusts of up to 90 kilometres an hour, and big seas. Already strong winds are buffeting the Byron Bay lighthouse, and are due to arrive in Brisbane by early afternoon. Conditions out to sea would be the equivalent of a category two cyclone and closer to land they would be similar to a category one. “They will continue overnight and tomorrow, before slowly easing off during the day." The weather bureau has issued a severe weather warning for the state's south-east and Granite belt with large seas and damaging wind gusts expected, as a result of a deep low pressure system. The system was similar to the one that caused havoc in Newcastle in June, grounding freighter ship the Pasha Bulker. Power outages are likely because of branches falling onto wires. "And there's already big seas developing on the Gold Coast. They'll extend north to the Sunshine Coast and Fraser Island later today. Hopefully all the bulk carriers know about it, and will stay well offshore." Some rain was expected but nothing significant.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the strong winds expected to hit Fraser Island this evening and tomorrow are VERY RARE. Winds up to 50 knots could batter the east of Fraser Island. "We've actually got a storm force wind warning for offshore Fraser Island waters, that is winds getting up above 48 knots by this evening, overnight into tomorrow, so that's QUITE RARE of course to have winds that strong."

8/20/07 -
Hurricane DEAN was 166 nmi W of Kingston, Jamaica.
Tropical depression ERIN was 406 nmi NNW of Galveston, Texas.

Hurricane Dean - Trees have been uprooted and roofs ripped off houses in southern Jamaica, as Hurricane Dean's devastating journey through the Caribbean continues. The Prime Minister has declared a month-long state of emergency. The storm, with winds of up to 230km/h (145mph), careered along the country's south coast, its eye passing some miles away out to sea. Dean has already claimed at least six lives in the eastern Caribbean. Haiti and the Dominican Republic were spared the worst as Dean passed to the south overnight on Saturday - damage was limited to flooding in coastal areas, but Jamaica felt its full force. As heavy rain began to fall, there were reports of mudslides north of Kingston and the St Mary area on the island's north-east coast. Areas of the Cayman Islands and Mexican coast are being evacuated, amid meteorological reports the storm could intensify into a Category Five hurricane after it leaves Jamaica.
Hurricane Dean roared past Jamaica yesterday with 145-mph winds and left at least eight dead in its wake, slashing toward Mexico and building toward Category 5 strength. It ripped off roofs, triggered mud slides and threw trees and power poles across the flooded streets of the capital, Kingston. One man was missing Dean's eye passed just south of Jamaica last night. It was expected to continue south of the Cayman Islands this morning on its way toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. (map)

Typhoon Sepat - At least 15 people were killed as Typhoon Sepat battered China's south-eastern coast, spinning off a tornado that left a trail of devastation inland. The tornado cut a corridor of destruction 800 metres wide in eastern Zhejiang province, destroying 156 houses yesterday around Wenzhou City, leaving 13 dead and more than 60 injured, six seriously. In south-eastern Fujian province, two people were confirmed dead and another reported missing after Typhoon Sepat triggered flooding and mudslides. Authorities had evacuated nearly one million people from the province and neighbouring areas before Sepat landed in Fujian early today packing winds of 119km/h. Sepat brought rainfall of 40mm per hour to Wencheng County, disrupting power supply in eight townships and villages. The typhoon left a trail of damage, flooding roads, lifting roofs off houses and uprooting trees and billboards. The typhoon dumped 300mm of rain over 24 hours in some parts of the province, damaging homes, crops and downing power lines. More damage was expected in Hui'an county as weathermen reported heavy rain in a number of cities in Fujian. Rainstorms in the province will continue for two days.

8/19/07 -
Hurricane DEAN was 126 nmi SSW of Barahona, Dom. Republic.
Tropical storm SEPAT was 169 nmi W of Taipei, Taiwan.

Hurricane Dean is sweeping past Haiti and the Dominican Republic, as people in the two countries face a battering by heavy rains and flooding. An 11-year-old boy died in the Dominican Republic, bringing the hurricane's death toll so far to four. Rough waves damaged buildings on the coast of the Dominican Republic, and several people were injured in the capital Santo Domingo. Jamaica is now bracing itself for a direct hit from the storm today. Experts warned that the hurricane would be made worse by exceptional rainfall and coastal storm surges. "It has the potential to be almost catastrophic." The hurricane is due to reach the Gulf of Mexico, where the US has much of its domestic oil and gas supplies, on Monday.
Category 5 hurricanes are RARE. Until the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, records showed only two years - 1960 and 1961 - with more than one Category 5 storm. But in 2005, four hurricanes reached that strength - Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma - triggering debate about the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones. Dean could become a Category 5 storm after roaring by the Caymans in two days, with winds of over 155 mph (250 kph).

TAIWAN - The powerful typhoon slammed into Taiwan on Saturday, washing out roads, uprooting trees and killing at least one person. Authorities ordered the evacuation of thousands of people around the island as electricity supplies faltered and rains battered already saturated rivers valleys, mountainsides and urban landscapes. Typhoon Sepat - by far the most powerful storm to hit the island this year - made landfall at 5:40 am (2140 GMT Friday) near the eastern city of Hualien, packing sustained winds of 173 kph (109 mph). The storm - the third major tropical system to hit Taiwan in the past two weeks - cut an east-west swathe, leaving overturned cars, disrupted electricity grids and deserted streets in its wake.
CHINA - More than 900,000 people were evacuated along China's southeast coast as typhoon Sepat roared toward the mainland Saturday. The typhoon slammed into China's eastern coastline early Sunday, spawning a tornado that toppled more than 150 homes and killed at least nine people. Typhoon Sepat made landfall in southern Fujian province, but the storm is believed to have caused the formation of the tornado in Zhejiang province to the north. More than 60 people were injured in Cangnan county, including eight seriously. Torrential rains were reported in the coastal cities of Wenzhou, Pingyang and Taishun. Sepat had been approaching the Chinese coastline with sustained winds of 90 mph, ahead of the highest-level storm alert. Sepat is THE STRONGEST TROPICAL STORM EVER TO HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND.

8/18/07 -
Hurricane Dean - With sustained winds now at 150 mph, Dean left behind floods, debris, and at least three deaths on the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique and Dominica on Friday. Nearly 100 percent of Martinique's banana crops and 70 percent of its sugar cane was destroyed in the hurricane. Many homes lost roofs, leaving people's belongings exposed to driving rain that fell even hours after the brunt of the storm had passed. Dominica, which lies north of Martinique, had minor flooding, a few downed fences and trees and battered banana crops, one of the island's main exports. At least 150 homes were damaged. A landslide crushed a woman and her seven-year-old son while they slept in their home. In St. Lucia, the storm scattered boulders from the sea onto downtown streets and knocked down trees and utility poles. A 62-year-old man was swept away and drowned when he tried to retrieve a cow from a rain-swollen river.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are braced for potential flooding as Hurricane Dean passes to the south today after gathering force in the Caribbean. There are now fears Dean will directly pass over Jamaica. US hurricane monitors have also urged the Cayman Islands to be vigilant. Winds have hit 233km/h (145mph) and the storm may achieve the highest category, Five, with speeds of about 250km/h, by the time it reaches Mexico on Monday. In the US, Louisiana has declared a state of emergency, though the chances of the storm hitting are slim. Texas has categorised Dean as an imminent threat. Some oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico have already begun shutting down production platforms and evacuating workers to the mainland. "This storm is moving faster than the average storm. It is forecast to have a direct hit on Jamaica at a Category Four strength, which is an extremely dangerous storm [and is forecast to come] very close to the Mexican coast, near the Texas-Mexico border."

TEXAS - rescuers are searching for people swept away in flash floods caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin. At least six people died Thursday. The storm has dropped up to 11 inches of rain on parts of San Antonio, Houston and the Texas Hill Country. Wary residents are worried about Hurricane Dean.

8/17/07 -
Hurricane DEAN was 311 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical depression ERIN was 176 nmi W of Galveston, Texas.
Tropical depression FLOSSIE was 347 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon SEPAT was 363 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

The remnants of Erin continue to move northwestward around 14 mph and are expected to be located in west Texas by this afternoon. Total rain accumulations of 3-6 inches are expected across portions of central and southern Texas, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.
TEXAS - The thunderstorms from Erin brought 7 inches of rain to parts of San Antonio and Houston, where one person died and another was injured. Summer storms have poured RECORD RAINFALL across Texas and parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, with floods killing 21 people since mid-June.

The powerful typhoon "Egay" (international codename: Sepat) was heading for Taiwan Thursday after paralyzing Metro Manila in the Philippines for the third day. Classes in all levels in Metro Manila and several Luzon provinces remained suspended Friday due to bad weather brought by "super typhoon" Egay and the southwest monsoon. PAGASA forecast the typhoon to be 140 km northeast of Basco by Friday night and in the vicinity of western Taiwan by Saturday evening. The weather bureau added that over the next two days, rains can become enhanced over these areas including Metro Manila, when the southwest monsoon is expected to be at its peak in relation to the typhoon's location.
Officials in the Philippines are warning of possible landslides as the powerful typhoon building over the western Pacific passes close to the country. Typhoon Sepat was passing close to the country on Thursday, building strength as it heads north towards Taiwan which is bracing for a possible direct hit. Forecasters said the storm was generating sustained winds of 185kph and gusts of up to 220kph, making it the strongest typhoon in the region so far this year. Sepat has become a super typhoon. "It can wash out everything not made of cement or steel with that wind." (photos)

CHINA - Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau issued a super typhoon alert for Sepat Thursday morning. The storm is expected to bring heavy winds and rainstorms to east China on Saturday. Under the influence of Sepat, the ninth tropical storm this year, wind will whip the coast of Zhejiang at speeds up to 88 kilometer per hour tonight and accelerate to 117 kilometers per hour on Saturday. Zhejiang is directly south of Shanghai. Sepat originated in the Philippines on Monday and became a super typhoon Wednesday night, the National Meteorological Center said. The winds near the center of the storm gusted up to 216 km/h. The alert is the highest level for typhoons.

Category 2 Hurricane Dean strengthened and threatened to become a dangerously powerful storm as it plowed toward the Caribbean and aimed for Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the Gulf of Mexico beyond, forecasters said on Thursday. More immediately in the path of the 2007 Atlantic storm season's first hurricane were the Lesser Antilles, in particular the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia and the French territories of Martinique and Guadeloupe. The hurricane's top sustained winds had reached 100 miles per hour (160 km per hour) by 8 p.m. Thursday. Computer models showed the hurricane could become an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm as it passed south of Jamaica early next week. Category 3 to 5 hurricanes, such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma in the devastating 2005 Atlantic storm season, are potentially the most destructive storms but a Category 2 hurricane can still damage buildings and create a 6- to 8-foot (1.8 metre to 2.4 metre) storm surge. A tropical storm watch, meaning tropical storm conditions could be expected within 36 hours, was issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 8/16/07 -
Hurricane DEAN was 427 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm ERIN was 94 nmi NNE of Brownsville, Texas.
Tropical depression FLOSSIE was 299 nmi SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon SEPAT was 356 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

TEXAS - Tropical storm Erin approached the Texas coast Wednesday evening, as it churned through the Gulf. Texas, already suffering from one of its rainiest summers on record, is expected to be hit by Erin, with 40 mph winds, this morning north of Corpus Christi. The tropical storm is not expected to gain hurricane strength before reaching the shore. The National Hurricane Center in Miami has forecast up to 8 inches of rain and a storm surge of up to 3 feet for coastal areas of Texas. As of 10 p.m. Wednesday in Texas (11 p.m. ET), the center of Erin was about 140 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and 200 miles south-southwest of Galveston. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the coast from San Luis Pass southward to Port Mansfield. Erin's threshold for tropical storm status is 39 mph. The tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest at around 14 mph and was expected to continue following that track for at least 24 hours. The centre also warns of isolated tornadoes along the middle Texas Gulf Coast today.

Tropical Storm Dean intensified Wednesday night and has become the season's first hurricane as it rolled toward the Caribbean islands. Hurricane watches were posted in St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba and Saint Eustatius. Dean was expected to reach the outer Caribbean islands by Friday morning and continue heading west or west-northwest, possibly endangering the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba this weekend. It was expected to become a major Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 130 mph by Monday night, possibly as it approaches Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is also the first Cape Verde hurricane of the season. Cape Verde hurricanes usually develop into very intense cyclones.
Forecasters are growing more confident that a high-pressure area north of Dean's forward track would keep the storm on a westerly course and prevent a northward turn toward Florida. The system was expected to move through the Windward Islands on Friday, south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday and just south of Jamaica on Sunday. From there, Dean was expected to bulk up to Category 4 strength and aim toward Mexico's Yucatan or into the Gulf of Mexico. If it makes it into the Gulf, it could pose a threat to any of the Gulf states, including Florida's western coast and Panhandle. It could grow to Category 5, with sustained winds of at least 155 mph. Initially, long-range forecasts had pointed Dean in the general direction of South Florida.

Typhoon Sepat is at Category 4 and is likely to reach Taiwan on the weekend if it does not change course.

PHILIPPINES - Pounding rain from Typhoon Sepat flooded parts of the Philippine capital Wednesday. Classes in all levels in Metro Manila and provinces nearby have been suspended Thursday, August 16, because of rains and flooding brought by typhoon Egay (international codename: Sepat) and the southwest monsoon in Luzon on Wednesday. Late Wednesday night the typhoon gained strength as it moved west northwest of the Philippines.

Hurricane Flossie skirted Hawaii on Tuesday, passing 100 miles south of the Big Island, but sending 25-foot waves pounding the coast. Category 2 Flossie's glancing blow brought winds in excess of 40 mph and more than 10 inches of rain.

8/14/07 -
Tropical depression 04 was 1336 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane FLOSSIE was 470 nmi SE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Cyclone SEPAT was 524 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.

The island of Hawaii has declared a state of emergency, closing schools and setting up shelters as Hurricane Flossie approaches from the southeast. Flossie weakened from a Category Four to a Category Three at noon today, but remains a "dangerous hurricane with a clear, well-defined eye." The last recorded hurricane to hit the island of Hawaii was the Kohala Cyclone in 1871. Flossie will come within 140 km of the Big Island around 2pm local time tomorrow (1100 AEST). Winds of 65-80km and 5m-plus surf would be accompanied by 25cm of torrential rain along the southeast shore. (photo)

The Atlantic tropical depression may become a tropical storm today as it moves westward toward the Caribbean. It will be named Dean if it becomes a storm. The system was about 1,659 miles (2,670 kilometers) east of the Lesser Antilles by 5 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time today. It may strengthen into a hurricane by the end of the week as it approaches the Caribbean. The disturbance is the first noteworthy system to be born this year in what forecasters call the “deep tropics,” where conditions are growing ripe for development and storms have plenty of time to strengthen before they reach land. Similar systems are lining up behind it, ready to roll off Africa and into the Atlantic, suggesting that a worrisome few weeks are ahead for residents of the hurricane zone. Another tropical storm may form today in the Gulf of Mexico, where thunderstorms are developing near an area of low pressure north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

PHILIPPINES - Tropical storm "Egay" (international codename: "Sepat") entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) yesterday. Egay is the fifth tropical cyclone in the country this year and the third for this month. Egay was spotted 1,090 kilometers (kms) east of Northern Luzon at 2 p.m., packing winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 80 kph. It was moving west at 15 kph. Egay is forecast to be 900 kms east of Northern Luzon this morning and 690 kms east of Northern Luzon by tomorrow morning. By Thursday morning, it is expected to be 440 kms east of Northern Luzon. Egay is expected to bring rains over Mindanao today and Luzon and Visayas by tomorrow or Thursday.

8/13/07 -
Hurricane FLOSSIE was 800 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm SEPAT was 630 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.

HAWAII - Moving westward into the central Pacific, Hurricane Flossie, some 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii, is a major hurricane. Winds remain at 135 mph, which makes this a Category 4 Hurricane. Flossie is forecast to maintain hurricane status into Tuesday. The forecast then calls for it to weaken back to a tropical storm as it encounters cooler waters, and more stable conditions. The system is also forecast to head more to the west-northwest, which would cause it to pass only a few hundred miles south of Hawaii. This would be close enough to generate some high surf and waves, as well as increase showers for the Islands. Also the trade winds north of Flossie would be strengthened. (photo & map)

PACIFIC - The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued the first warning for the ninth numbered storm of the tropical cyclone season at 6 p.m. Sunday — the third in less than two weeks. It quickly turned into a tropical storm and at midnight swirled 770 miles southeast of Okinawa and remained almost stationary with sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts. Initial forecasts called for Sepat to track slowly west toward Taiwan. “But it’s moving so slowly. It’s too early to say where specifically it will end up.” The closest point of approach for Okinawa was forecast for 420 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 p.m. Friday, packing sustained 98-mph winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. The new storm began developing as another tropical disturbance that ravaged Okinawa for two days subsided. By mid-afternoon Sunday, the rain halted. From Friday to Sunday morning, wind gusts of up to 40 mph pounded the island. They recorded almost 14 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.

CHINA - in south China's Guangdong province, the HEAVIEST FLOOD IN 200 YEARS HIT THE PROVINCE, spawned by tropical storm Pabuk. More than 23,000 residents have been forced to flee their homes and operations on China's cross-strait railway network have been suspended. Rescuers were yesterday trying to pull about 760 residents from their flooded homes in Leizhou City of Guangdong. A woman aged in her 80s drowned as the flood entered her Yingli home. At least one person was reported missing in Leizhou as of yesterday morning. The flood has disrupted the life of about 1.2 million people in the cities of Zhanjiang, which administers Leizhou, Maoming and Meizhou and destroyed 3,665 houses. The Leizhou Peninsular on the southern tip of Guangdong bore the brunt of the rainstorm spawned by tropical storm Pabuk. Within 18 hours from Friday to early Saturday morning, a hydrologic station in the city's Tangjia township reported 728 millimeters (28.66 inches) of rain, while another in Longmen town recorded 658 millimeters. It was the HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN 200 YEARS. Across Leizhou, the flood trapped about 5,920 residents in more than 30 villages. The flood destroyed more than 980 houses, damaged 24 bridges and 127 kilometers of highway, inundated about 357,000 hectares of crops and swept away 8,400 head of poultry in Leizhou.

ATLANTIC - A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave that's closer to Africa than the Americas has developed and could become a tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center reports. If the storm does develop and intensify into a depression and tropical storm, it would be named Dean. Moving toward the Americas, the low could - if conditions are right - enter the Caribbean Sea and threaten the island nations in a week or so. Also of interest to the forecasters in Miami is a large area of shows and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean near the central Bahamas. No quick development is expected, the hurricane center said. This area of storms is disorganized and moving toward the southern Gulf of Mexico at about 10 mph.

MIDDLE EAST - Bahrain and other Gulf countries are dangerously unprepared for natural disasters and risk catastrophic destruction on land and at sea, according to a regional crisis centre. Ageing infrastructure would be destroyed if winds approaching the speed of Gonu entered the Gulf, something climate change is making increasingly likely to happen. "Cyclone Gonu (in June) was tracked at 160 knots - that is 320 kilometres an hour, and that's a lot. It slowed down, but when it reached Muscat it was still 120 to 130 knots. The installations in the Gulf - the oil rigs, the platforms, the life buoys and so on are only built to withstand 60 knot winds. Over Oman, the minimum wind speed of Gonu was 80 knots. They are only built to withstand that because we have never had such winds here before - the maximum wind was 50 knots at the time many of these installations were built and that was RARE. It would double the cost to install a platform able to withstand such winds. A platform here is much cheaper than those in the North Sea or in the China Sea near Vietnam because there they do have cyclones and such strong winds. "Here people have thought 'why double the price of the installation when we don't really need it?'...So the governments in the region have to change this to make things similar to that in the North Sea. It will be very costly. You are talking about billions and billions of dollars, if not trillions - a huge amount." Failure to take the threat seriously would be a mistake. There were fears that cyclone Gomu would destroy the port in the emirate of Fujairah and wreak havoc in Dubai. "We told them to prepare to get the ships out of the port and they got the big ships out. They were lucky because the cyclone moved away from Fujairah to the Iranian coast. If it had gone closer to Fujairah, the gantry cranes in the port would have been demolished..."If this were to hit a country like Bahrain, it would be an absolute mess. It would destroy everything - we are not prepared."

8/12/07 -
Tropical depression 09W was 582 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.
Hurricane FLOSSIE was 1050 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

VIETNAM - The death toll from a tropical storm in central Vietnam hit 60 after six more bodies were recovered, while nine others were reported still missing.

HONG KONG - A typhoon lashed Hong Kong Friday forcing the closure of the stock market and leaving the streets deserted, as the Pabuk storm changed direction and headed back towards the city. Winds of 90 kilometres (56 miles) per hour were measured in the territory, with gusts of up to 111 kph. The strong winds caused some scaffolding on buildings in the financial hub to collapse. Tropical storm Pabuk pounded Taiwan earlier in the week, disrupting traffic and power supplies, but it lost power as it approached Hong Kong and passed by without causing any damage. But the storm changed direction over the Pearl River Delta in southern China early Friday. It passed just west of Hong Kong at around 6:00 pm (1000 GMT). Hong Kong Observatory said Saturday was expected to begin with gale force winds, which would weaken later, but rain would persist throughout the weekend. Meanwhile, the eighth tropical storm of this year, Wutip, was forecast to hit Fujian Province in east China Friday with more powerful impact.

CHINA - The National Meteorological Center of China said on Friday that three more tropical storms would form in a few days to come, and two of which might hit south and southeast coastal areas of China. The seventh and the eighth tropical storms of the year - Pabuk and Wutip - were not fully developed, as the power of the two was partly offset by each other.

Flossie - The storm, swirling hundreds of miles off Mexico's Pacific coast, strengthened into a hurricane Friday. Flossie's winds increased to 75 mph and were expected to strengthen. Flossie could remain a hurricane for two days but is expected to weaken by the time it nears Hawaii, in about four days. Flossie is forecast to move south of the islands, possibly as a tropical storm. "But even a system passing to the south can bring significant rain" and surf swells.

8/10/07 -
Tropical storm FLOSSIE was 1417 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression PABUK was 167 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.
Tropical depression WUTIP was 288 nmi ENE of Hong Kong.

ATLANTIC - high pressure is holding sway over the Atlantic breeding grounds where tropical storms are formed. That's why there's nothing scary on the horizon and why none of the reliable computer models forecast any tropical development over the next seven days. A series of small tropical waves is stretching from the Azores to the Gulf of Mexico, but they are south of 20 degrees north latitude, and storms that form that far to our south practically never get to Louisiana. "Dry, stable air" dominated most of the places where storms want to form in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf late Wednesday. On average, the first tropical storm to become a hurricane appears Aug. 14, although a paper just published by two U.S. researchers suggests that might be changing.

Tropical Storm Flossie was becoming better organised as it moved westward in the Pacific Ocean, about halfway between Mexico's southern Pacific coast and Hawaii. The storm, which formed on Wednesday, was expected to strengthen slightly in coming days before moving over cooler waters and weakening. By 5am EDT on Thursday, the storm's wind speeds were about 80 kph, and could reach hurricane status within a day or two, with wind speeds beyond 119 kph. The storm was located far from land and was moving rapidly west at about 21 kph. The storm's rapid forward movement and expected shift toward a more northwesterly track could bring it closer to Hawaii by early next week. However, if the storm moves further north, it would encounter cooler waters and weaken.

8/9/07 -
Tropical storm FLOSSIE was 1263 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.(Could reach hurricane strength in a day or two.)
Tropical depression PABUK was 114 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.
Tropical depression WUTIP was 365 nmi ENE of Hong Kong.

PHILIPPINES - Big waves whipped up by storms "Chedeng" and "Dodong" briefly stranded at least 13 fishermen who were on their way from Batangas to Scarborough Shoal. For several hours late Wednesday, the fishing boat was stranded seven miles off San Agustin village in Iba town in Zambales province after being buffeted by huge waves. Three of the 16-member crew boarded a smaller boat and sought help from the Coast Guard, which rescued them. A Coast Guard team rushed to the site to attempt a rescue of the fishing boat, but failed to do so because of the strong waves. The fishermen are expected to return home safely after they managed to repair the engine of their boat.
Tropical Storm Pabuk churned across the Philippines Wednesday, triggering deadly landslides before it moved into southern Taiwan. Monsoon rains fed by Pabuk caused a landslide that buried seven houses and killed at least 10 people Monday in the southern gold mining town of Maco. Another landslide buried a house and killed a 9-year-old boy in the northern mountain resort city of Baguio at dawn Wednesday. A stronger tropical storm, Wutip, has developed east of the Philippines and is forecast to hit Fujian on Friday.
Pabuk blew out of the mountainous northern Philippines and then swirled across the southern tip of Taiwan, bringing heavy rain but causing no major damage or casualties. It cut power and forced schools and business to close. Power supplies were disrupted to 3,000 households in the southern county of Pingtung.
Pabuk was moving northwest at 15 mph and was expected to hit Shantou in southern China's Guangdong province late last night.
The death toll from floods triggered by a separate, unnamed storm in Vietnam have killed at least 44 people with 15 others missing and feared dead. The tropical storm, the worst to hit Vietnam this year, was downgraded to a depression on Monday, but heavy rains continued. "It is still raining heavily in the mountains. The death toll could rise if the weather does not improve in the next few days." "This is the worst flood I have seen in my life."
Hong Kong was bracing itself early this morning for its first tropical cyclone this year as tropical storm Pabuk moved closer to the territory. Squalls and thunderstorms lashed the territory last night following the hoisting of the No 1 standby signal early yesterday. Pabuk slowed down significantly and weakened last night under the influence of another tropical storm, Wutip, which was forming over the northwestern Pacific. Pabuk will be closest to Hong Kong this morning. The weather will be cloudy with scattered squally showers and thunderstorms. More rain is expected over the next few days.

8/8/07 -
Tropical storm PABUK was 282 nmi SW of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression TROPICAL was 408 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm WUTIP was 289 nmi SSE of Taipei, Taiwan.

PAKISTAN - The National Disaster Management Authority has issued a warning of a cyclone expected to cross over the coastal belt of Sindh and Balochistan on August 9. “The southern parts of Sindh will receive widespread rains, while scattered rains and dust storms are expected in other parts of the province." Widespread rains were also expected in different parts of Balochistan, especially in the coastal areas including Ormara, Lasbella, Pasni, Gwadar and Jiwani. The provincial governments had been directed to take precautionary measures on an emergency basis and prevent fishermen from going into the sea in view of the rough weather conditions. A strong Monsoon Weather System (Deep Depression) has formed over the Bay of Bengal and was moving in a Westerly direction. “It is likely to cross over the Arabian Sea on August 9, where it is expected to intensify. In the subsequent two days (August 9 and 10), the weather system is expected to move towards the coastal areas of Balochistan. Fishermen must be stopped from fishing on August 9,10 and 11, as sea conditions will be rough.” The current system is identical to Cyclone Yemen that hit the coastal areas in June. “Widespread rain in Balochistan’s southern hilly areas may cause flash floods again in the areas which are already affected."

Tropical storm "Chedeng" (international code name Pabuk) has crossed the southern tip of Taiwan and continues to move westward towards southern mainland China. However, a new tropical depression is forming (Wutip, code-named 'Dodong') and heading for Taiwan. As of 4 a.m., "Chedeng" was 250 kms north-northwest of Basco, Batanes or 70 kms west of South Taiwan. It continued to pack maximum sustained winds of 110 kph and gustiness of 140 kph, and continued to move west at 22 kph. By Thursday morning, "Chedeng" was forecast to be 680 kms west-northwest of Basco, Batanes or 550 kms west of Southern Taiwan. By Friday morning, it was forecast to be 940 kms west-northwest of Basco, Batanes or 720 kms west of Southern Taiwan. Still under storm signal 1 were the Babuyan Islands in extreme Northern Luzon, Philippines. Residents in coastal areas are under signal 1 against big waves generated by this storm. An active low pressure estimated at 430 kms east of Northern Luzon will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon. This will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly at the western sections. "Those living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides."
Rainstorms hit the Philippine capital region as the country was affected by tropical storm Pabuk that passed by the northern region today, the third day in a row since flash floods started causing trouble for citizens on the street. Residents of Metro Manila found themselves stranded in flash floods in several low-lying areas of the metropolis. "The deepest flood level we monitored was neck-deep." Rescuers saved five young siblings trapped for three hours under a collapsed wall in Antipolo City.

China has relocated hundreds of thousands of people along its southeast coast as it battens down for a storm expected to hit today after brushing Taiwan. Tropical storm Pabuk lashed southern Taiwan, an island off China's southeast coast, with heavy rains, temporarily cutting power to more than 50,000 homes and causing minor flooding, officials said, but there was no widespread damage. The storm follows a summer of incessant natural disasters in China in which 936 people have died in floods, landslides and house collapses triggered by rainstorms. Fourteen hours of downpours since Monday night killed another 17 people in Ankang in the normally dry province of Shaanxi in the northwest. Thirty-three were missing as crops and roads were damaged. Pabuk will cross the coast near Shantou or Zhaoan in Fujian province later today. In Fujian, about 138,000 people have been evacuated from their sea farms in coastal waters, while more than 6,700 boats had returned to shore. Hong Kong has raised its signal No. 1 warning, which means a tropical storm or typhoon is centred within 800 km of the city and might affect it. If Pabuk maintains its current track, it will pass very close to Hong Kong, and the city might raise the alert level to a signal No. 3 strong wind warning. Downpours are forecast for large parts of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces, prompting authorities to warn of floods and landslides, but the rain is also expected to ease nearly a month of scorching heat and drought in the region. A new tropical storm, Wutip, formed in Pacific waters off the Philippines today and was moving northwest towards Taiwan as it gathered strength.

VIETNAM - Tropical typhoon No 2 (Tropical) reduced to a low pressure system Monday, according to the National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting. The low pressure system was about 100km east of Da Nang Monday night, with the strongest winds at the centre of the low pressure system measuring between 62-74km per hour. The low pressure system was moving in a north-westerly direction at 10km per hour. The centre forecast that the low pressure system would continue to change during the coming hours. Rough seas and strong winds from 39-61km per hour are expected. Heavy rain will continue to fall in provinces from Thua Thien-Hue to Thanh Hoa, the Tay Nguyen (the Central Highlands) region and the eastern part of the Northern Delta. The Prime Minister sent an urgent message to relevant authorities to urge them to step up efforts on ensuring safety and responding to damage caused by the low pressure system. The Prime Minister required local authorities to ensure safety for vessels and fishermen. In mountainous provinces, the Central Highlands and other areas suffering from heavy rains and floods, local authorities were instructed to take urgent measures on preventing landslides and further floods as well as actively evacuate residents to safe houses. Heavy rains and floods have taken their toll in Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Kon Tum and Lam Dong provinces. Two people were killed, 14 remained missing and 34 houses collapsed or were washed away by floods in Dak Lak Province Monday morning. The province has reported that more than 10,528ha of crops are now waterlogged and seven irrigation dams have burst. Lam Dong has reported four dead, 23 houses washed away, 786 houses collapsed and more than 1,500ha of crops seriously waterlogged. The water level in Dong Nai River was measured at about 136m, exceeding the third warning level by 0.8m and continued to rise Monday evening. Although rains temporarily stopped in Kon Tum Province, they had damaged a number of irrigation dams and dikes and blocked several roads.

8/7/07 -
Tropical depression 06W was 116 nmi NNW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm PABUK was 292 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.

PHILIPPINES - Heavy rains from tropical storm Pabuk brought tragedy to a small mining town in Compostela Valley, and hope to parched farm communities in Central and Northern Luzon. In Maco, Compostela Valley, eight people died and two went missing when a landslide triggered by heavy rains ravaged a riverside barangay yesterday. The landslide destroyed at least 10 houses. Witnesses said the earth gave way on a hillside that had been loosened by several days of rain. In Nueva Vizcaya, the downpour sparked rejoicing among farmers even if the rains were not enough to significantly raise the water level at Magat Dam in nearby Isabela province. Tropical storm “Chedeng” (international code name Pabuk) is expected to intensify into a typhoon tomorrow and bring more rains in Luzon, but based on its direction the storm would not directly affect any part of the country. The storm will enhance the southwest monsoon but would not bring enough rains to raise the water level at Angat Dam and other reservoirs. The seas are expected to be rough in central and southern Luzon and in the Visayas due to the surge of southwest monsoon induced by Chedeng. Two to three typhoons are expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility this month.
Traditionally, typhoons were cursed natural phenomenon that people pray would never hit their region. However, in the Philippines, a country hit by an average of 25 destructive typhoons annually, weather forecasters, and even the government, were praying that the typhoon which had been slated to hit the country but which has changed course, would turn back and make landfall. Tropical typhoon "Chedeng" was supposed to hit the northern Philippines this week, but after it changed course it is now headed towards Taiwan. The typhoon is still within the Philippine area of responsibility and will bring needed monsoon rains. The chief weather forecaster said the public should pray that the typhoon stays at its present course and does not head towards Japan because if that happens, no monsoon rains will be felt in the Philippines. The country is facing critical water shortage because of a lingering dry spell. The water levels in several dams were now in critical levels, forcing power utility companies to start rationing power supply to some areas. The water shortage is also being blamed for why the water companies were also rationing water supplies to its consumers. The abnormal low amount of rainfall in the Philippines is shown by the low number of typhoons to hit the country this year. Typhoon "Chedent" is only the fourth typhoon to hit the Philippines in 2007. In a normal year, the Philippines should have been hit by as many eight to nine typhoons so far.

TAIWAN issued sea and land warnings as tropical storm Pabuk headed towards the island today, threatening to lash the southeastern coast with heavy rains and strong winds. By 0000 GMT, the centre of Tropical Storm Pabuk was about 400 km east of Taiwan and was moving northwest at 21 kph, with sustained winds of up to 101 kph and maximum gusts of 126 kph. Tropical storms in the region gather intensity from the warm ocean waters and can develop into typhoons that frequently hit Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Hong Kong and southern China during a season that lasts from early summer to late autumn.

8/6/07 -
Tropical depression 06W was 53 nmi ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm PABUK was 399 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

VIETNAM - Heavy rain triggered by a tropical storm (06W) has killed at least eight people and left 14 others missing in Vietnam's central highlands area as the storm continues to head northwards along the coast. Floods have killed four people and destroyed 78 houses in Dak Lak province, 350 kilometers north of Ho Chi Minh City. "Most of the victims drowned and were washed away during the weekend and we are searching for the missing now." 14 people are still missing in the floods. The heavy rains also inundated more than 10,000 hectares of crops, mostly coffee. In neighboring Lam Dong province, heavy rain killed four people and destroyed 14 houses and inundated more than 1,000 hectares of crops. Heavy rain is forecast to continue in the central highlands and coastal provinces for the next several days. However, it was unclear if the storm would actually make landfall in Vietnam. The storm, which has not been assigned a name by the Japan Typhoon Centre, is the second tropical cyclone to hit Vietnam this year. A second storm now in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Pabuk, is expected to pass far north of Vietnam and threatens eastern China.

Pabuk - Initial warnings were issued late Sunday for the seventh storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. Tropical Storm Pabuk, which formed overnight Saturday well to Okinawa’s southeast, was forecast to pass far to Okinawa’s south on Tuesday. However, officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Weather Flight said it was “a little too early to tell” if the new system would stay to the south or curve north toward the island. At 6 p.m. Sunday, Pabuk swirled 587 miles southeast of Okinawa, rumbling west-northwest at 13 mph, with sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts. If it remains on its JTWC track, Pabuk is forecast to churn 340 miles south of Kadena at 2 p.m. Tuesday, packing sustained 112-mph winds and gusts of up to 140 mph at its center. The forecast track shows the new storm making landfall over central Taiwan’s eastern shore around 6 p.m. Wednesday.
PHILIPPINES - The tropical storm was forecast to enter the country Sunday night and was expected to bring much-needed rainfall in the country. As of 2 p.m. Sunday, the tropical storm was 1,300 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, packing winds of up to 65 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of 80 kph. It was forecast to move west-northwest at 22 kph. The storm was expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility at 6 Sunday night. The weather disturbance will not directly affect any part of the country, but could enhance the southwest monsoon (habagat) and bring more rains in the country. Some parts of the country have received below normal rainfall in the past months because of the strengthened "ridge of high pressure area" and displaced inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The dry spell experienced in Metro Manila and western Luzon is expected to continue through this month. However, rains are expected to normalize in September. So far, only two typhoons have entered the Philippines Area of Responsiblity, 25 percent of the average for the period of January to July. An average of 20 tropical cyclones hit the Philippines a year. Two to three typhoons are expected to hit the country this month.
Practically the whole region of Cagayan Valley, which accounts for around 40 percent of the country’s total rice production, is now under a state of calamity as a result of the long dry spell that has hit northern Luzon during the past weeks. If it continues without letup, it may result in total damage to millions of pesos of agricultural crops and possible shortage of the staple food. According to the latest reports, more than 19,000 hectares of rice fields as well as 21,000 hectares of corn lands in the province have already been severely affected or damaged. An isolated hailstorm with ice the size of corn kernels hit a barangay in Baguio Tuesday last week and forebodes a stark reality – a dry spell ahead. Tuesday’s almost five-minute phenomenon was a result of the formation of a convective cloud due to surface heating. In fact, a super convective cloud might have caused the incident. And this phenomenon is not at all a good sign like that of bringing the much-needed rainfall in the city; on the contrary, this is a foreboding sign of a dry spell. Only 200 millimeters of accumulated monthly rainfall were recorded in Baguio City in July, which is 50 percent below the average. "And if rains do not come this month, then there will be a prolonged drought because as we enter October, it is the dry months already."

8/5/07 -
Tropical depression 06W was 123 nmi SSE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm 07W was 595 nmi NNW of Yap, Caroline Islands.

CHINA - South China's Hainan Province is bracing for a new tropical storm which formed early Saturday in the South China Sea. The flood control authorities of Hainan asked local counties Saturday afternoon to keep vigilant, order fishing boats offshore back to harbor and inspect reservoirs to meet heavy rainfall the storm will bring. The eye of the storm was 450 km south of Sanya City in the South China Sea at 5 p.m. Saturday packing winds of up to 64.8 km per hour. The storm will continue to gain force as its eye moves northwest at a speed of five to ten km per hour. The tropical storm was expected to bring heavy rain or rainstorm to most parts of Hainan Saturday night and today with strong winds. It will bring showers to southern Guangdong and torrential rains to the western parts of the province in the forthcoming three days, which will help ease off the hot weather plaguing the province. Most parts of Guangdong have recently been thrown under a spell of high temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius.

VIETNAM has ordered fishing boats to shore ahead of a tropical storm forecast to hit the central coast this weekend. With wind speed of up to 74 kilometres an hour, the storm was 360 kilometres east of Binh Dinh province at 7 am (0000 GMT) Saturday and was moving northwest at 10 kilometres an hour. If it continues moving at that speed, the storm would make landfall this afternoon. This is the second tropical storm to threaten Vietnam this year. Early last month, Tropical Storm Toraji hit the country's northern province of Quang Ninh but caused minimal damage. More than 600 people were killed last year in Vietnam by storms and floods.

8/3/07 -
Tropical depression 06W was 334 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical depression ERICK was 1364 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm USAGI was 263 nmi NNE of Kagoshima, Japan.

JAPAN - Eighteen people were injured and thousands sought shelter as Typhoon Usagi struck Japan's southern island of Kyushu. The typhoon made landfall late on Thursday, bringing winds of up to 180 km/h (110mph). It cut power to thousands of homes and felled trees. Bullet trains from the main island, Honshu, were suspended. Usagi is moving northwards, but it has weakened and meteorologists have now downgraded it to a tropical storm. Television footage showed uprooted trees and flooded rivers. Usagi is the second major storm to hit Japan this season.

8/2/07 -
Tropical storm ERICK was 1184 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon USAGI was 134 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

CANADA - The eastern third of Newfoundland is reeling after post-tropical storm Chantal dumped up to 150 millimetres of rain in places on Wednesday and damaged bridges and homes. It was THE WORST STORM IN AT LEAST 40 YEARS in the hard-hit town of Placentia on the southern Avalon peninsula. One driver was lucky to be alive after his car plunged into a six-metre gap in the road, created when a culvert was washed away. Bridges were out in many communities and roads were washed away or flooded in others. Several towns were cut off by floodwaters. (dramatic photos)
CANADA - Emergency crews were dealing Wednesday with what one mayor called "an impossible fight" against flooding in Newfoundland communities brought on by the remnants of tropical storm Chantal. Traffic on the Trans-Canada Highway ground to a halt for several hours, as RECORD-SETTING RAINFALLS overwhelmed a stretch of the highway near Whitbourne, about 90 kilometres west of St. John's. Across the Avalon Peninsula, most communities got about as much rain during the day as they would ordinarily receive in a month. Rainfall recorded at the St. John's airport topped 96 millimetres for the day, passing a one-day RECORD RAINFALL set in 1975 of 80.5 millimetres. Monthly averages of rainfall in the area are about 108 millimetres. (photos)

VIETNAM - A tropical low pressure over the East Sea off Vietnam is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rains, and rough seas from Quang Ngai all the way up to Ca Mau in the extreme south. The Central Hydrometeorology Center said Wednesday the southern East Sea would have winds of up to 61kph and choppy seas. There would be heavy rains from Quang Ngai to Ca Mau. The eye of the low pressure would remain almost stationery for 24 hours, making it hard to make further predictions. The tropical low pressure originated as a result of atmospheric turbulence Tuesday 700km off Vietnam caused by Typhoon Usagi which has formed off Japan. Rescue forces are on high alert. (map)

8/1/07 -
Tropical storm CHANTAL was 228 nmi ESE of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Tropical storm ERICK was 994 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon USAGI was 499 nmi E of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

JAPAN - strong typhoon Usagi in the western Pacific Ocean headed towards Japan on Tuesday and officials said the storm was likely to strike the country's southernmost island later in the week. The centre of the storm was forecast to reach Japan's southernmost island of Kyushu on Friday, hitting the area with strong winds and high waves. British-based Web site Tropical Storm Risk (www.tropicalstormrisk.com) classified Usagi as a category 2 typhoon and forecast it would strengthen to category 4 by today and Thursday before fading as it brushed past Japan's main island of Honshu. The southern island of Kyushu was hit by the powerful Typhoon Man-yi earlier in the month. The storm killed three people and injured more than 70.

The third tropical storm of the season, Chantal, formed Tuesday morning. It is rapidly moving toward the northeast near 23mph. Chantal poses no threat to any landmass. Forecasters are also closely monitoring a tropical wave located 700 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Environmental conditions were favourable for development. Computer tracking models are keeping the system on a westward track bring it across the southern Caribbean islands on the weekend. Overnight Monday the system showed signs of becoming better organised, though on Tuesday, the trend had not been continuing.
CHANTAL was set to leave Newfoundland soaked with upwards of 70 millimetres of rain as it passed by the province and drifted out into the ocean by this morning. If the storm slows down as it passes by Newfoundland, the rainfall could top 100 millimetres by this morning. Environment Canada issued rainfall warnings for southeastern Newfoundland and gale warnings for marine areas. The storm was staying far out to sea as it passed by Nova Scotia and it likely wouldn't have much of an effect on weather in the three Maritime provinces. It is an average summer storm that is typical during hurricane season.

7/31/07 -
Cyclone 01S was 1133 nmi SSW of George Town, Malaysia.
Depression 03 was 424 nmi SE of Boston, Massachusetts.
Typhoon USAGI was 520 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Usagi mushroomed into the fourth typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season and rumbled Monday on a wobbly northwest track, placing Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni firmly in its crosshairs. At midnight Monday, Usagi swirled 288 miles south of Iwo Jima, churning northwest at 7 mph with sustained winds of 86 mph and gusts of up to 104 mph. If it continues moving on the track forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Usagi will graze Iwakuni 25 miles to its east at 5 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 105-mph winds and 130-mph gusts at its center. Usagi is forecast to peak in strength at 9 p.m. Wednesday, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 160-mph gusts, equal to a Category-4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Okinawa appeared to be well out of danger, however, as Usagi was forecast to pass some 400 miles east of Okinawa at 3 a.m. Thursday. Typhoon Usagi is forecast to strike Japan at about 09:00 GMT on Thursday, August 2.

A new analysis of Atlantic hurricanes says their numbers have doubled over the last century. The study says that warmer sea surface temperatures and changes in wind patterns caused by climate change are fuelling much of the increase. Some researchers say hurricanes are cyclical and the increase is just a reflection of a natural pattern. But the authors of this study say it is not just nature - they say the frequency has risen across the century.

7/30/07 -
Cyclone 01S was 1089 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Typhoon USAGI was 322 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Usagi, located near the Northern Mariana Islands, is approaching the remote Japanese island chain of Ogasawara, about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) southeast of Tokyo. It has maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour. The storm, upgraded from a tropical depression Sunday afternoon, was moving at a speed of 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) per hour and expected to approach the Ogasawara Islands chain this afternoon. The storm is expected to continue traveling north-northwest near Torishima Island, 600 kilometers (360 miles) south of Tokyo by Wednesday. It is not yet known where the storm will travel afterwards.

In the Atlantic, tropical storm forecasters continue to watch an area of low pressure 400 miles northeast of the Central Bahamas for development. The National Hurricane Center, in its late morning advisory, said the low has not become better organized but "has some potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next day or two." The low is moving north-northeastward. Otherwise, the forecasters say there is no tropical weather in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico - and none is expected through Tuesday morning. Tuesday marks the end of the second month of the 2007 hurricane season.

7/29/07 -
Tropical storm 05W was 214 nmi NNE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm 05W continues to move toward Pagan, Agrihan and the most northerly islands of the Marianas. As of 7 a.m., the storm was about 130 miles east-northeast of Alamagan and Pagan, 135 miles east of Agrihan, 265 miles north-northeast of Saipan and 400 miles north-northeast of Guam. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Pagan and Alamangan while a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Alamagan. A tropical storm warning means damaging winds of 39 to 74 mph are expected within the next 24 hours. A storm watch means damaging winds are expected within the next 48 hours. The storm is moving west at 14 mph and does not pose an immediate threat to Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. If it becomes the Pacific's fifth named tropical storm and fourth typhoon of the season, it would be named "Usagi".

ATLANTIC - Several major forecasters, including leading advisers for the insurance and energy industries, are downgrading their predictions for the remainder of hurricane season, saying cooler-than-expected water in the Atlantic Ocean will be less conductive to storms. The warm water that fuels the storms is cooler this summer than some scientists expected. The difference is only a few degrees Fahrenheit, but it has reduced official forecasts by anywhere from one to three storms. In interviews, some forecasters said the cooler waters could have an even bigger impact, perhaps reducing the number of predicted storms by 30 percent. Tropical Storm Risk reduced its prediction for Atlantic storms from about 16 to 14, and plans to drop the number even further when it releases an updated forecast in early August. Explanations for the cooler water are debated by scientists. Theories range from sun-blocking dust clouds blowing off the coast of Africa to unexpected northerly winds pushing the warmest water farther south. In addition to the cooler water, the hurricane-friendly La Niña weather pattern has mysteriously failed to appear. Scientists say it is now unlikely to develop until late September - after the peak of hurricane season. Other scientists, including those of the federal government, do not plan to reduce their forecasts. They say other factors, such as the position of the jet stream, are likely to have a larger impact on the season. Another reason that weather experts are warning coastal residents to stay on guard is that waters in the Caribbean are not affected by the cooling. Many late-season hurricanes start in the Caribbean, although they are typically not as powerful as those spawned in the Atlantic. "We do expect an active season still. Just, not as active as originally thought. That's an important point."

7/27/07 -
Tropical storm DALILA was 328 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

A weakened Tropical Storm Dalila dumped rain on Mexico's Baja California peninsula and kicked up dangerously high surf in its last show of force Thursday before it was forecast to die far out at sea as it crosses cooler waters.

Hurricane-spawned waves have grown 2.3 to 6 feet higher since 1975. Three decades of data about ocean waves, collected from buoys off the U.S. Atlantic Coast, shows waves are getting steadily larger in response to stronger hurricanes. The discovery offers a new way to spot trends in hurricane intensities — a subject of intense controversy. Global warming is a suspected cause of the rise in Atlantic wave heights and the rise in North Pacific wave heights as well, although those could also be the effects of pollution from China. "We're talking about a rather modest increase." It's not exactly the sort of increase that will get coastal planners excited, unless they are very far-sighted.

7/26/07 -
Tropical storm DALILA was 209 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

7/25/07 -
Tropical storm DALILA was 352 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

7/24/07 -
Tropical storm DALILA was 397 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

7/23/07 -
Tropical depression 07E was 469 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Tropical depression COSME was 668 nmi WSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Two tropical depressions in E. Pacific, Waves in Atlantic - Two tropical depressions are swirling westward through the Pacific Ocean. One will grow stronger, the other, weaker. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Seven-E (35 mph), is centered about 445 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, and moving toward the WNW at 9 mph. The disturbance appears to be getting better organized, and could become a tropical storm (Dalila) within the next 24 hours. Slow strengthening is expected thereafter along with a change in course to a more northwesterly track. Still, no land areas should be threatened.
In the central Pacific, Tropical Depression Cosme (35 mph), currently lacking any significant convection, is pushing westward toward the International Date Line and is located about 595 miles WSW of Honolulu, Hawaii. Cosme is forecast to remain a depression for the next couple of days before weakening to a remnant low.
In the Atlantic Basin, there are several disturbed areas but nothing that is expected to develop into a tropical depression. A steady stream of tropical waves coming off the African coast has brought a consistency to the Atlantic Basin recently. It seems there are always three tropical waves in play across the Atlantic. Just as one tropical wave moves out of the western Caribbean, another wave moves off the west coast of Africa to replace it; therefore, continuing the recent trend.
The first tropical wave is in the western Caribbean. This wave continues to generate showers and thunderstorms over the open waters of the western Caribbean. This wave will not likely become any better organized as it will be moving into an area of moderate upper-level shear that exists just to the west of its track. This wave is moving to the west at around 15 knots.
Another tropical wave is moving to the west at round 15 knots and it is approaching the Lesser Antilles. By Monday, the moisture from this wave should reach Puerto Rico. It is likely that some of this wave's energy will become entrained into the area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico, perhaps helping to spur development there.
The third tropical wave is moving to the west at around 10-15 knots. Although the waters surrounding the wave are warm enough to support development and there is very little shear present, a large cloud of dust from the Sahara remains present just to the north and west of the wave, which indicates dry air that will prevent this wave from developing any further for the next few days.
Finally, clusters of thunderstorms continue to blow up around an upper-level disturbance located between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. This upper-level low pulled tropical moisture in from a wave that passed by to its south a few days ago, and may again pull more tropical energy into the system from the wave that is now approaching the Lesser Antilles a day or so from now. The waters are warm enough to support development and the upper-level winds are marginal with weak, southwesterly winds aloft causing modest shear. A depression or storm may form in this area, but it will take a few days for organization to occur.

7/22/07 -
Tropical depression 07E was 427 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical depression COSME was 373 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

ATLANTIC - There's a major reason 90 percent of all hurricanes form in August, September and October - wind shear (winds that blow in different directions at different altitudes and rip hurricanes apart or inhibit their formation) is typically high in June and July. It begins dropping in August, kicking off the three peak months of hurricane season. It's also among the reasons tepid activity in June and July is no indication what the rest of the season may hold. On Friday, hurricane specialists were keeping their eye on a tropical wave near Puerto Rico, although conditions aren't favorable for its development.

7/20/07 -
Tropical depression Cosme was 750 miles east-southeast of Honolulu.

HAWAII - Tropical Depression Cosme is maintaining its strength and is expected to bring the islands an increase in showers and trade wind speeds tonight through Saturday as it passes south of the islands. The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a flash flood watch for the island of Hawaii for this morning through Saturday afternoon. Some areas of the island may receive 5 to 10 inches of rain, enough to possibly cause flash flooding.

ATLANTIC - Although the northeastern Pacific had its first hurricane of the year - the short-lived Cosme - there hasn't yet been a named storm in the Atlantic in the month of July. During the 2005 hurricane season, they had two extremely intense July hurricanes (Dennis and Emily). The tropical cyclone heat potential in the Caribbean remains very high, and indeed, higher than 2005 levels at a comparable time of year. "It's worth noting that heat potential generally should only increase during the next few months unless a major storm passes through and stirs up cooler water from below. So what does this tell us? I'm certainly not saying there's another Rita or Katrina in store for this summer. But given the heat potential in the Gulf it's possible, and coastal residents ought to be quite wary of tropical systems that develop in the Caribbean or reach the Gulf of Mexico." (ocean temperature map)

7/19/07 -
Tropical depression COSME was 1048 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HAWAII - Possible relief from ongoing dry conditions could come in two waves through this weekend, including a chance of moisture from the northern fringe of the remnants of Tropical Storm Cosme. But the short-term drought relief is far from certain. Kauai and Oahu were expected to get the most benefit from an out-of-season cloud band heading toward the island chain out of the north. Showers were forecast to hit windward areas today, with the possibility that some rain will make it as far south as Maui. The cloud band, or shear line, is more typical during winter months. “It’s RARE to see them in the summer.” Rain over the past weekend was attributed to another out-of-season frontal cloud band. The second chance for rain in Maui County will come out of the southeast from whatever remains of Cosme, which was rapidly losing its punch as it made its way northwest over cooler waters. Based on Cosme’s forecasted track late Tuesday afternoon, the remnants of the tropical storm are expected to pass 100 miles south of the Big Island on Saturday. While the Big Island will certainly get more rain, it was uncertain if the northern fringe of the storm’s clouds will bring moisture to Maui. Even if the rains come, however, they are not expected to make a significant impact on the drought, particularly Upcountry where reservoirs have been losing reserves of water. The islands’ dry season typically runs from May through September. County water officials shut down one of Kahakapao’s two 50-million-gallon reservoirs on Monday and cut production at the Olinda Water Treatment Plant by 90 percent. Upcountry residents have been under mandatory 10 percent water cutbacks since June 13.

7/18/07 -
Tropical storm COSME was 1273 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HAWAII - Tropical Storm Cosme could bring considerable rainfall and gusty winds to the islands by the weekend. The first major storm to threaten the islands this year was about 14-hundred miles east of Hilo yesterday morning. Cosme is helping power breezy tradewinds in the islands that are expected to continue until Friday, while clouds and rainfall should decrease. Cosme started out as a tropical storm early Monday morning. It was upgraded to a hurricane after its winds intensified to about 75 to 80 miles per hour, only to be downgraded when its winds weakened. Forecasters predict the storm will weaken as it hits cooler waters. They expect it to approach the southern tip of the Big Island on Friday night and into Saturday with winds reaching a maximum of 45 miles per hour.

Man-yi is heading away from Japan's capital, Tokyo, after killing at least three people in the south of the country. Typhoon Man-yi was downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 83km/h (51mph) as it passed south of Tokyo. Man-yi struck the southern islands of Kyushu and Shikoku on Saturday, killing three people and injuring about 70. Man-yi - the strongest typhoon on record to hit Japan in July - has also caused widespread flooding. The weather agency warned that the northern part of the country could get up to 250mm of rainfall in a 24-hour period until this afternoon. (photo)

7/15/07 -
Tropical depression 05E was 587 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 06E was 1181 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm MAN-YI was 162 nmi SW of Tokyo, Japan.

JAPAN - Powerful typhoon Man-yi made landfall on Japan's southern main island of Kyushu on Saturday and hit some other parts of western Japan, leaving two people dead, 2 missing and 68 injured. Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes. By early this morning RECORD HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL for the month of July had been received in Mobara, Yokoshibahikari, Tonosho and Kashima. During the next 24 hours, until Monday morning, rainfall of up to 300mm (11.8 inches) is forecast for the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan and 150 mm in the Kanto area surrounding Tokyo.
Man-yi is ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL STORMS IN DECADES - IT IS THE WORST TO HIT JAPAN IN JULY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1951. Packing winds of up to 162km per hour, Man-yi was moving northeast towards Tokyo and was about 300km from the capital by mid-morning. It has lost strength slightly from its peak but the Japanese weather agency urged residents to be alert for torrential rain, mudslides and flooding. The storm has paralysed Japan's air transportation, stranding tens of thousands of passengers.

The Mediterranean could start generating its own hurricanes if sea temperatures keep rising, a study has warned. Presently, hurricanes originating far out in the Atlantic blow westwards towards the Caribbean and America’s Gulf coast, and leave Europe’s coastline unscathed. Now scientists warn that climate change means that the Mediterranean is warming up so much it stores enough heat to trigger the formation of its own hurricanes. Such a change would have serious implications for tourism, raising the prospect that hotels, campsites and resorts would need to develop hurricane shelters, evacuation plans and other protective measures similar to those on America’s Gulf coast. “Some observed cyclones over the Mediterranean have already shown partially tropical characteristics.” Recently, researchers found hurricanes forming where they had never been seen before. In 2004 Cyclone Cata-rina became one of the very few ever to form in the South Atlantic, hitting the coast of Brazil. Then, in 2005 Hurricane Vince formed around Madeira, an area that had never before produced such storms. It even struck Spain – another first. The same year also saw New Orleans overwhelmed by Hurricane Katrina and the American Gulf coast hit by Hurricane Rita, the fourth-most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Hurricane researchers were shocked and have since put huge efforts into predicting how future climate change might alter patterns of hurricane formation. So far, the surface layers of the Atlantic and Mediterranean have warmed by about 0.6C, with most of that change happening since 1970. Some predict a further 2C-3C warming by 2050.

7/13/07 -
Typhoon MAN-YI was 29 nmi SW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

JAPAN - the powerful typhoon Man-yi is closing in on Japan's southern Okinawa island, triggering a blackout at thousands of households and grounding hundreds of flights. Man-yi, described as "extremely strong" by the meteorological agency, is packing wind gusts of up to 252 kilometres an hour and whipping up waves of more than nine metres. The typhoon may cross the Tokyo region early Sunday after lashing western Japan. The agency has also warned of torrential rain, flooding and landslides.

Tropical storm Man-Yi has evolved into super typhoon and is expected to lash at the southeastern water of the East China Sea this afternoon. Meteorologists said that the typhoon, with its center registering a maximum wind of 55 meters per second, may continue to reinforce. The eastern coast of Taiwan, central and northern coasts of Zhejiang, the estuary of the Yangtze River and the west water of the East China Sea are expected to experience a wind scale of 9 to 12. The wind scale in the areas swept by the center of the Man-Yi may reach 13 to 17. The Shanghai Meteorological Center has alerted the residents of Zhejiang of the approach of the typhoon which first formed into tropical storm on Monday formed from the east of the Philippines. On August 10 last year, super typhoon Saomai, with its center registering a maximum wind of 60 meters per second, hit Zhejiang and neighboring Fujian provinces, killing at least 483 people.
CHINA - A Chinese vessel has sunk 600 km northwest of Guam, leaving 12 crew members missing. Ten people were rescued on Wednesday, the day after the ship sank due to high winds and seas from Typhoon Man-yi. Rescue efforts continued for two days, but a dozen crew members remain missing.

The weather agencies of South Korea and Japan have offered different forecasts on the effect of this year's fourth typhoon, Man-Yi, which is moving northward and expected to hit the two countries around the weekend. The Japan Meteorological Agency says inland areas in Korea will be hit by Man-Yi by Saturday, but the Korea Meteorological Administration so far says it will not. The two countries agree that the midsize typhoon is moving northwestward toward Taiwan from above waters some 1,000 km east of the Philippines as of Wednesday 3 p.m. at a speed of 30 km per hour. Man-Yi will likely move course to the east and affect southern Japan and the southern coastline of Korea's Jeju Island on Saturday. But the two sides differ on how far its effect will reach. "Japan has forecast a much wider area which would come under the typhoon's effect...as they take into account the margin of error factor if the typhoon's eye moves." (photos)

There is no threatening weather in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and not one of the computer models foresees the hint of a tropical storm over the coming week. But there's plenty of time to go in this hurricane season. We've been expecting storms early and often over the last several years, but, on average over the long term, the first storm to reach hurricane strength appears on Aug. 14, the second on Aug. 30 and the third on Sept. 9. There are a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic this morning and they will continue to roll out of Africa in the coming weeks, but there is nothing that is too threatening in the immediate forecast. "A cluster of thunderstorms located off the Carolina coast looks ominous. However, there is too much shear over this region for any development to take place." That shear and continued Saharan dust that tends to dry potential storms, appear to want to stay in place for at least another week.

7/12/07 -
Typhoon MAN-YI was 492 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan.

PHILIPPINES - Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour with gustiness up to 170 kilometers per hour, Typhoon "Bebeng" (international name "Man-yi") entered the Philippine area of responsibility before dawn on Wednesday, bringing rains to the western section of the country. The second typhoon to hit the country it is expected to cause downpours in Palawan, Mindoro and Panay island in western Visayas and Batangas in southern Luzon for the next couple of days. It was not expected to hit land, however, the typhoon would induce the southwest monsoon and bring heavy rains to Visayas and Mindanao. "Our advice to fishermen in affected areas is not to set out to sea." By the time it exits the country's area of responsibility Friday, heavy rains are expected over Metro Manila, central and the rest of southern Luzon. From a severe tropical storm, Bebeng intensified into a typhoon with maximum winds of 120 kilometers per hour before it entered the country. It further intensified to 140 kilometers per hours later. The first typhoon to hit the country was "Amang" in May. At least 13 cyclones are forecast to hit the country between now and September.

Typhoon Menai [Man-yi] will reach Russia’s Far Eastern Primorsky territory in the form of a cyclone. A storm warning was issued in this connection in the Primorsky territory on Wednesday – heavy rains are expected in the south of the region, as well as a drastic rise of water level in rivers and northwest winds with a speed of up to 20 metres per second. All cities in the south of the territory have been warned about possible emergencies. According to the Far Eastern meteorologists, Typhoon Menai will be the most powerful over Japan, after which it will move to the Pacific Ocean.

7/11/07 -
Tropical depression 04E was 772 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (The storm has fallen apart and a comeback appears unlikely.)
Typhoon MAN-YI was 08 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinaw.

Man-Yi has strengthened into a typhoon - As of early Tuesday, winds were sustained at around 75 mph, putting it at weak typhoon strength. The storm is moving to the northwest at around 15 mph and it will continue strengthening for the next couple of days. The storm will be over open, very warm water into today and could strengthen into a strong typhoon by Thursday, possibly reaching category 4 status (131-155 mph/113-135 kts). By Friday, the storm looks to curve to the north-northeast, passing near Taiwan before heading almost directly for the Japanese Ryukyu Islands Friday into Saturday. This path, of course, can change. (map)

7/10/07 -
Tropical depression 04E was 613 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm MAN-YI was 170 nmi N of Yap, Caroline Island.

GUAM - Electricity was out since Monday morning in some parts of the island, as the wind and rains from Tropical Storm Man-Yi caused several power lines to go down. Man-Yi is projected to pass between Guam and Yap, 250 miles to the southwest of Guam, with maximum winds at 50 miles per hour. "One thing I would like to emphasize is that this wind is stirring quite a bit of waves around the island and in the east and south exposures, right now the seas are running 20 feet, the surf is running close to that as well and the rip currents are extremely dangerous. Everybody should be avoiding the water right now, especially on those exposures but it maybe fun to watch from the distance. I would urge everyone to stay out of the water." Residents should expect throughout the night gusts up to 40 MPH, with the weather expected to be back to normal by Wednesday.

CHINA - Low-lying areas of eastern China were placed on alert Monday over the approach of Tropical Storm Man-Yi. Despite the warning to coastal residents in Zhejiang province, the storm isn't expected to affect the area before midweek. Man-Yi formed earlier Monday near the Philippines and is on-track to become a typhoon on Wednesday. No direct impact on any land mass is expected. Zhejiang's caution points to possible lessons learned after Typhoon Saomai, the most powerful storm to hit China in decades, which slammed into the province and a neighboring one last year, wrecking houses, ripping ships from their moorings, and killing at least 483 people.

7/9/07 -
Tropical storm MAN-YI was 265 nmi SW of Agana, Guam.

The tropical storm that's southwest of Guam now has a name. Tropical Storm Man-Yi is about 330 miles to the south-southwest of the island and is moving northwest. The tropical storm is not expected to hit Guam, instead the formation is projected to pass within 250-260 miles to the southwest sometime this evening. Residents of Guam should still expect gusts of up to 40 miles per hour. During the day it'll be moving northwest between Guam and Yap. "It looks like it's starting to intensify now it's been holding at 40 MPH for the last day or so, but it looks like now it may be getting up closer to 45 or 50. We'll find out when the next warning gets out but it's finally starting to look like a storm." Tropical Storm Man-Yi may be a threat to Taiwan or Okinawa several days from now.

MICRONESIA - The storm was expected to develop into a typhoon, putting two northern Yap islands on a typhoon watch. "It's had a little bit of trouble because it's lost some organization but we expect it to fire back up soon." The storm is expected to pass far south of Guam, somewhere around 300 miles away, but closer to the northern Yap islands of Fais and Ulithi. As of last night, those islands could see typhoon force winds of 74 miles per hour or more within the next 48 hours.

7/8/07 -
Tropical storm 04W was 365 nmi S of Agana, Guam.

GUAM - Tropical storm 04W could develop into a tropical cyclone in eastern Yap state or western Chuuk state by today, and is expected to track northwestward between Yap and Guam tomorrow or Tuesday. The island of Guam will start receiving rain showers and gusts of up to 25 mph starting tonight.

VIETNAM - Flashfloods caused by Typhoon Toraji that hit two days ago have taken a toll on Vietnam's northern provinces, destroying standing crops and infrastructure. Many communes were badly affected - over 100 hectares of paddy were lost, major irrigation facilities and four suspension bridges were destroyed, and hundreds of residents were marooned. A flashflood sweeping across Tam Duong district in Lai Chau province destroyed 15 hectares of rice crop. In Quang Ninh province’s Co To island, seven fishing vessels capsized Thursday. Toraji, the first typhoon to hit Vietnam this year, lashed Quang Ninh Thursday evening before weakening a day later and veering east towards China. Five to six typhoons will likely lash Vietnam this year, meteorologists have warned. (photo)

7/6/07 -
Tropical depression TORAJI was 83 nmi ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam.

VIETNAM - Typhoon Toraji hit northern Vietnam Thursday evening. The storm affected coastal provinces and cities stretching from Quang Ninh to Hai Phong. Though 88km/hr winds were reported in the Gulf of Tonkin, no damages have been reported yet. The storm was expected to continue moving northwest at 15-20 kph within the next 24 hours. Heavy rains are expected to continue in the typhoon-hit areas. The center forecast around four to five typhoons would hit Vietnam this year. The center also said the country’s storm forecast technology had been improved since last year. Their announcement said that while residents in affected areas should remain vigilant against possible landslides, cyclones, and high tidal waves, local authorities would be responsible for evacuating people to safe ground. River dykes and embankments were ordered to be reinforced. The Quang Ninh provincial administration reported late Thursday it had evacuated 27 households in the landslide-prone areas. Around 2,300 fishing vessels had reportedly anchored at safety docks in Hai Phong.

7/3/07 -
No current storms.

PAKISTAN - The death toll from the cyclone and subsequent heavy floods in Pakistan's southern Balochistan province climbed to 380, while thousands more are facing starvation in the affected areas. Tropical cyclone Yemyin moved in from the North Arabian Sea last Tuesday and roared ashore in Balochistan with winds of about 130 km per hour and heavy rains, causing floods, which inundated hundreds villages in the province. Twenty-five people died of snakebites and epidemic diseases in Jhal Magsi district. More than 400 are still missing in the province.
PAKISTAN - People are plastering themselves with mud in an effort to keep cool as the miserable conditions continue for flood-affected people in the Kech district of Baluchistan in western Pakistan. The suffocating humidity and lack of clean water and electricity have been making life miserable for tens of thousands of people since Cyclone Yemyin swept through the region on 26 June. As flood waters recede, the air is rank with the smell of rotting goat carcasses, the gruesome remnants of herds once part of the livelihoods of local people. People are resorting to desperate measures to cope with the conditions, which are expected to worsen in coming days as more bad weather arrives. At least 800,000 people have been affected by the flooding, which as also left 250,000 homeless. What is emerging in Turbat and the surrounding areas of Kech is that communities were extremely vulnerable, and their houses stood little chance of withstanding the flood waters. In such a predominantly dry area, mud houses with thatch roofs are often situated along river banks or in dry river beds. Villages such as Koshkalat, where 200 families lived, have been decimated, with every single dwelling destroyed.

7/2/07 -
No current storms.

7/1/07 -
No current storms.

PAKISTAN - Photos of the flooding that has affected up to one million people. The district of Turbat is one of the worst affected areas, with roads washed away.
Unrelenting rains are hampering Pakistani rescuers' efforts to provide relief to a million people hit by a cyclone, as more areas in the country's southwest are inundated. The onset of the rainy season has brought severe weather to much of South Asia, killing more than 500 people in storms and floods in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan over the past week. Hardest-hit has been Pakistan. A cyclone struck southwestern Baluchistan province on Tuesday, three days after a storm battered the nation's biggest city, Karachi, killing around 250 people. The death toll from the cyclone and flooding in Baluchistan has risen to about 80 after 17 people were swept away by flooding caused by heavy rains in Khuzdar district on Friday night. "Many houses have either been collapsed or washed away in the area." Weather officials forecast more heavy rains.

6/29/07 -
Cyclone 04B was 214 nmi SW of Calcutta, India.

INDIA - tens of thousands of people are fleeing an approaching storm. The monsoon season has brought storms and floods to much of South Asia, killing more than 500 people in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan over the past week. Hardest-hit has been Pakistan. Rescue workers in the country are struggling to reach communities cut off by floods affecting 900,000 people.
PAKISTAN - Victims of monsoon floods in southwest Pakistan rioted today, protesting the slow arrival of meagre aid to their villages. The protests come after Cyclone Yemyin dumped torrential rains in the area on Tuesday, causing widespread flooding. Police attempted to contain the crowd of several thousand in Turbat with tear gas and shots fired into the air, but with little effect. "We have been saved from the flood, but we may die of starvation." Protesters said they had waded through chest-deep water from outlying areas to voice their anger about the shortage of relief aid. The government said the official death toll in Baluchistan province was 14, with more than 24 missing. Local media reported much higher numbers. "Every family is looking for one or two members. They are all missing." Twenty people died in flash floods Thursday in the northwestern Khyber Agency tribal region. (photo)
AFGHANISTAN - this week's storm over the Gulf of Oman was an "absolute monster." "This storm is an anomaly in that it hit us. Much like how (hurricane) Juan hit Halifax, how the tornadoes in Edmonton hit in '87. On a climatological scale, these things don't happen - these areas aren't prone to getting hit." The storm swirled up on Tuesday, unleashing wind and rain throughout Afghanistan over three days, including a three-hour crackling thunderstorm that at times was hard to discern from the roar of military aircraft. The usual rainfall this time of year for southern Afghanistan is zero. By late Thursday night, 40 millimetres had fallen. In parts of Afghanistan, the impact of the storm was severe; Afghan National Police and coalition soldiers rescued 42 people Wednesday who were trapped on rocks in the province of Kapisa, in the eastern part of the country. Further east, in Pakistan, the provincial relief commissioner estimated that some 200,000 houses were destroyed or damaged. More than 800,000 people have been affected by floods from heavy rains and overflowing rivers and dams. In Kandahar City on Thursday morning, the storm cut off power and phone access for thousands of people, bogging down side streets and main arteries throughout the city. Farmers especially were worried about the UNUSUAL weather. One grape farmer mocked a westerner who was enjoying the respite from the heat, saying the rain would certainly ruin what had looked to be a bumper crop this season. The region is entering the season known as the Wind of 120 Days, an arid blast of air that sweeps over from Iran, and unstopped by the vast desert of southern Afghanistan, rips across the country with gale-force strength.

6/28/07 -
No storms.

INDIA, PAKISTAN - A new cyclone is building up in the Bay of Bengal south of Calcutta in India that could cause more flooding in coastal areas of Pakistan. It will enter the Arabian Sea while crossing the western coast of Bombay. It might cause destruction and flooding in coastal areas of Pakistan depending upon how intense it is once it enters the Arabian Sea. Low air pressure is likely to cause heavy rainfall in India.

PAKISTAN - Rescuers in southern Pakistan are battling to reach tens of thousands of people stranded after cyclone Yemyin struck the country's Arabian Sea coastline. Many people are clinging to trees and rooftops to escape floods. Bad weather and damaged roads, bridges and phone links, are slowing relief efforts. Thousands of people evacuated in the coastal areas of Ormara, Pasni, Gwadar and Jewani have lost their homes after the cyclone struck the coast of Balochistan province, west of Karachi. At least 20 people are reported killed. Out to sea, Pakistan's navy has rescued more than 100 fishermen from the storm. Residents of the port of Gwadar and of more than 100 villages in the districts of Kech inland have been evacuated. Hundreds of motorists were stranded on the coastal highway which links southern Balochistan with the rest of Pakistan. Parts of the road were washed away by the cyclone. The town of Turbat is amongst the worst hit. A number of people are clinging to the roof of a mosque - the navy's attempts to rescue them have so far failed. At least one small dam near the town of Pasni has broken, inundating dozens of villages. The floods are also threatening the Mirani dam in Kech district. One unconfirmed report said water from the dam had overflown into the area and drowned 12 people. "The situation is out of our hands, it's out of control. The entire town has been inundated and people have taken refuge in tall buildings and trees."

6/27/07 -
Cyclone 03B.

PAKISTAN - Cyclone Yemyin made landfall in Balochistan province at about 1100 local time (0600 GMT) on Tuesday, bringing rain, flooding and winds of up to 80mph (130 kph). The cyclone is losing strength and has now hit Balochistan province, sparing much of Karachi. Heavy rain in Karachi in recent days has left at least 200 dead. Reports of damage to coastal areas near Karachi are still coming in. The navy is searching for a number of boats missing or sunk in the storms. Heavy flooding has been reported in and around the town of Pasni, about 400km (250 miles) west of Karachi, and water has also washed away part of the coastal highway linking southern Balochistan with the rest of the country. Fishermen say more than 200 fishing boats anchored along the coast have been destroyed in the storms. The cyclone killed at least 14 people, leaving dozens more missing and forcing tens of thousands to flee from their homes. Forecasters said a 7.6m storm surge was feared. Cyclone Yemyin is the second major storm of the north Indian Ocean cyclone season after Cyclone Gonu hit Oman, Iran and parts of southwest Pakistan early this month, killing more than 60 people.

Cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea are RARE, but not unheard of. Two tropical cyclones in the space of a month, on the other hand, is QUITE RARE INDEED. Unlike its predecessor, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, Cyclone 03B originated on the opposite side of the Indian Peninsula in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone 03B reformed in the Arabian Sea south of the Pakistan coast after having crossed over India. Storm surge from Cyclone 03B was predicted to be moderately high, even though the storm is not strong, since the offshore waters are shallow, similar to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Because these kinds of storms are rare, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to storm surge damage.

6/26/07 -
Cyclone 03B (Yemyin) was 99 nmi W of Karachi, Pakistan.

PAKISTAN evacuated thousands of people from southern coastal areas yesterday ahead of a possible cyclone, two days after a storm killed at least 235 people in the port city of Karachi. The meteorological department issued an alert saying that a tropical storm forming in the Arabian Sea 150 km south of Karachi was likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next six to 12 hours. The new storm was expected to bring strong winds with "heavy to very heavy rainfall" in Sindh province, of which Karachi is the capital, and neighbouring Baluchistan province. Fishermen were advised to stay ashore until Thursday in some areas because of the likelihood of "extremely" rough seas. At least 10 fishermen have been missing since the weekend.

U.S. - "Early-season storms have little or nothing to do with peak-of-season activity." Early-season Atlantic storms are often oddities, cyclonic anomalies with little connection to the real storm season. Subtropical Storm Andrea, which materialized May 9, was the first May storm in 26 years, a hybrid born as an extra-tropical storm off the south Georgia-North Florida coast that briefly adopted warm-water storm characteristics. During Barry's two-day life, June 1 and 2, it earned a tropical storm tag by generating thunderstorms near its center before sliding over land north of Tampa. "It's usual for June and July to be pretty quiet." Strong westerlies are typical of June and the upper-level westerly winds shear off the tops of the thunderstorms. That pattern is likely to continue for weeks. A large majority of the storms come in August, September and October. Seventy-seven percent, to be exact. Only 69 of 455 named storms since 1966 have swirled to life in June or July, an average of fewer than two a year. Since 1995, the Atlantic storm basin has averaged 14.7 tropical storms, 8.1 hurricanes and 3.9 major hurricanes a year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast for this year is for 12 to 17 tropical storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five of Category 3 or stronger. "We're still expecting an active season."

6/25/07 -
No storms.

6/22/07 -
Cyclone 03B was 528 nmi ESE of Bombay, India.

OMAN - A damaged trail of coral left behind in the wake of Cyclone Gonu has changed the underwater landscape of some of the UAE’s favourite diving spots. In some areas, large areas of coral – which provide food and shelter to marine life – were damaged or wiped out. Dibba Rock has lost more than half its coral. A large, shallow area which was earlier covered by coral was damaged, but there is still a lot of marine life left. The damage at Dibba was “like someone had ground the coral”. In other areas, like Snoopy Island, the damage was less severe as rocks protect much of the coral. Still, casualties of the storm exist even at Snoopy Island, where some coral was ripped from the seabed. Soft corals suffered the most, particularly at sites like Martini Rock. However, being a fast-growing species, it will recover if the conditions are right. “Divers who are familiar with the area will notice changes caused to the marine life. We know for a fact that marine life recovers, but it depends on many factors. If there are additional industrial pressures, this will further delay the recovery period.”

6/21/07 -
No storms.

The British predict a mild storm season, citing a cooling Atlantic. They say we can expect a mere 10 more named storms this year, in addition to the two that already have gone pffft. But the British aren't predicting how many will become hurricanes. The reason for fewer storms is a cooling trend in the Atlantic's surface sea temperature. NOAA, William Gray, Accuweather and Tropical Storm Risk all have predicted 13 to 17 named storms this summer, including Andrea and Barry. UK Met is using a "dynamical" global climate computer model for its prognostications, rather than statistical models used by American forecasters. "Our method ... uses models of the climate that include all the laws of physics and supercomputers together to predict what's going to be happening over the coming season." The British say their forecasts for the 2005 season and the sudden drop-off in 2006 were more accurate than others.

AUSTRALIA - Wind gusted to 100km/h as 10m waves, pushed ashore by a cyclonic depression, pounded the NSW coast yesterday. But a forecast cyclone failed to eventuate, the worst of the depression centering about 50km out to sea and losing its cyclonic strength 10-20km off shore. June 8 storms killed nine people, including five members of one family, and drove the bulk coal carrier Pasha Bulker ashore at Newcastle's main beach. Fears of cyclonic wind and torrential rain sparked widespread alerts on Tuesday from the South Coast to the Hunter Valley, with residents warned to "batten down the hatches" for a category two cyclone. (photo)

6/20/07 -
No storms.

6/19/07 -
No storms.

6/18/07 -
None.

Tropical storm forecasters reported late Sunday that there are no storm precursors lurking, and none is expected to to pop up at least through today. "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."

OMAN - With global warming showing no signs of abating, this month's Cyclone Gonu in Oman has reinforced the need for waterfront and offshore construction projects to account for severe weather conditions and the possibility of drastic environmental changes in the near future. One such example is The Wave, in Muscat, a mixed-use development occupying an area of 2.5 million m2 along 6km of natural beach, which was in the path of the storm. According to the management behind the project, the waterfront development has been almost unaffected due to a masterplan that provides for extreme weather events. It was designed to withstand a one-in-250-year storm. Cyclone Gonu was a one-in-50-year event. "The Wave, Muscat has been unaffected overall, as an advanced flood absorption system had been designed and implemented, which minimised the damage caused by the cyclone." Even though designs for all offshore and waterfront developments include provisions for storm and sea level variations, environment experts have said that situations beyond the expected have to be considered. "What has happened in Oman is unfortunate but it has been an example to the rest of the Middle East of what can come about due to global warming. Global warming is a fact, whether you want to accept it or not, and it is having a drastic change on weather patterns all over the world."

6/17/07 -
None.

OMAN says that the damage caused by Cyclone Gonu, which tore through the country earlier this month, could rise to 3.9 billion dollars. The damage to infrastructure alone could reach one billion riyals (2.6 billion dollars). At least 49 people were killed when Gonu hit the coast of Oman along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman on June 6, before veering towards Iran. The fiercest storm to hit the region for 30 years forced thousands of people from their homes and left a trail of destruction along the east coast of a country unaccustomed to such violent weather.

6/15/07 -
None.

6/14/07 -
None.

ATLANTIC - The coasts remain clear of weather that might develop into tropical storms. Twelve days into the 2007 hurricane season, the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are quiet. Forecasters say they foresee no tropical cyclone formation at least through midday Friday. So far the hurricane season has been tame, although forecasters predict an active season of storms affecting the U.S.

6/13/07 -
Tropical depression 03E was 372 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (This sytem is deteriorating and is not likely to develop any further.)

NEW YORK - Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff met with city officials in Brooklyn Monday to make sure the Big Apple is prepared for hurricane season. He warned that the nation's largest city needs to be prepared for a hurricane powerful enough to cause serious flooding in lower Manhattan and elsewhere. Experts have said that New York is about due for a major hurricane with 130-mph winds and a 30-foot storm surge that could cause the Hudson and East Rivers to overflow. The city has been hit by a hurricane about once every 90 years. The last major one was in 1938.

6/11/07 -
None.

The waters around Florida were quiet Sunday, but hurricane forecasters are watching a large tropical wave for development well out in the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical wave is located about 375 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. But, "shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the wave has decreased." Because of this, development of the wave into a tropical storm "is becoming less likely." Other than the wave, the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico appear to be clear of tropical storm precursors over the next two days.

OMAN - The water supply in Oman’s capital, Muscat, and the city of ‘Sour has been severely damaged as a result of cyclone Gonu, which hit the region last week. Oman’s Ministry of Electricity and Water is asking residents to be patient, clarifying that it could be 10 days before the water supplies are restored to normal. Eight stations have been set up where tankers can fill up with water for free and distribute to households. The shortage of water and electricity is causing friction among residents, as they fight over water and food supplies. Fuel is being rationed while electricity is gradually being restored to ‘Sour.

6/10/07 -
None.

IRAN - Floods spawned by the remnants of Cyclone Gonu stranded dozens of tiny villages in the deserts of southern Iran on Friday, cutting off roads, power and communications and sending some residents into trees for safety. Water encircled more than 100 villages deep in Kerman Province, where many residents subsist on livestock and small farm plots in villages consisting of a handful of families. "Power and telephone lines were affected by the flood there, so we do not have any access to them for the time being." Flooding also swamped dozens of villages in neighboring Sistan and Baluchistan province. The floodwaters drove out the residents of Shahrestan village, near the port city of Chabahar. "Some of them are living in trees. Since the beginning of the storm on Wednesday we have not received any relief assistance." The cyclone has become a high-pressure system creating rainshowers and wind in southeastern Iran. The flooding had damaged roads, farms and buildings in part of the country and relief supplies were being shipped to some remote villages by helicopters. More than 1,000 villages were damaged but the full extent of damage caused by the hurricane has yet to be assessed due to difficulties communicating with the worst-hit areas.
IRAN - Flash floods caused by cyclone Gonu have killed 12 people, injured nine and trapped 40,000 others in southeastern Iran. More than 3000 livestock died in the southern port town of Jask in Hormozgan province. “40,000 villagers are trapped by water in Hormozgan province”. Cyclone Gonu bore down on Oman early on Wednesday, creating havoc and leaving at least 49 people dead and another 27 missing before veering towards Iran.

6/8/07 -
None.

OMAN began clearing up after it was lashed by Cyclone Gonu, which killed up to 28 people and seriously damaged the Gulf state's infrastructure. Twenty-six people were also reported missing. The fiercest storm to hit the region for 30 years forced thousands of people from their homes and left a trail of destruction along the east coast of a country unaccustomed to such violent weather. Half of those killed had drowned in flooding caused by torrential rain. In the capital Muscat, heavy-duty ploughs, dumper trucks and diggers began the mammoth task of clearing roads of the thick mud and debris deposited at the height of the storm yesterday. Gonu also killed three people in Iran, where tens of thousands of people hunkered down in shelters and officials said more than 40,000 people were evacuated from coastal areas in southern provinces to higher ground. The cyclone initially packed winds of 260km/h an hour and was the strongest to lash the Arabian peninsula since 1977.
Cyclone Gonu roared through the Omani capital of Muscat before heading north across the Gulf of Oman and hitting Iran. The postcard-perfect mountains that are the city's pride became its pain. Torrential rains poured onto the bone-dry peaks and then flowed into canyons and dry riverbeds that channeled the raging water directly into the city. Bridges collapsed. Buses were piled in the wadis, the normally dry riverbeds that course through the city. Muscat's lush palm and eucalyptus groves were blown over along with telephone and power lines. Even the normally sparkling blue sea looked like foamy chocolate milk. Residents spoke of a night of horror as turgid floodwaters ripped into their homes, carried off refrigerators and cars, and left their streets gouged by sinkholes and caked in shoals of mud.
DUBAI - Health experts have asked people to take precautions to protect themselves from the sandstorms brewing due to the unpredictable weather conditions around the Gulf region. “The weather is quite windy in the country due to the cyclone Gonu which is causing sandstorms."
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - High tides pushed sea waters over costal defenses flooding parts of Kalba - for the third day in succession on Thursday - although damage was limited to areas already evacuated. It was a calm start early in the day in Kalba, which was followed by a light drizzle at just after one in the afternoon. At the same time, rising tides once again spilt huge quantities of water on the Kalba Corniche Park, Suhaila and Khor Kalba. The damage caused the closure of the main rout linking Kalba to Fujairah meaning a long round trip for motorists through narrow unpaved back-roads. Evacuated residents, some of whom spent Wednesday in temporary shelters in local schools, were all relocated on Thursday afternoon to the Institute of Applied Technology in Fujairah. Most will be relocated again to hotel rooms and apartments in Sharjah, after all hotel spaces in Fujairah and Khor Fakkan was fully taken up by earlier evacuees.

6/7/07 -
Cyclone GONU was 467 nmi W of Karachi, Pakistan.

OMAN - Twelve people were killed when Cyclone Gonu struck the Gulf country of Oman. The storm was the strongest to hit the Gulf for decades, damaging buildings and trees in Oman's capital, Muscat, and leaving many roads flooded. High winds and heavy rain were also reported, and electricity and water supplies were interrupted. The cyclone has carried on north-west, gradually weakening as it approaches the Iranian coast. Residents along the coast of southern Iran have moved to higher ground and sought shelter in schools and mosques. The Iranian town of Jask has reported high winds, heavy rain and overflowing rivers.
IRAN - Cyclone Gonu has left 3 people dead in Iran. The three people were killed in Iran's southern port of Bandar-e Jask when a river overflowing as a result of Cyclone Gonu caused their vehicle to overturn. News of the deaths came as tens of thousands of Iranians gathered in shelters to await a second onslaught of ferocious winds and driving rains. State media said that the severity of the storm in Chahbahar and Konark, around 100 kilometres from the border with Pakistan, was UNPRECEDENTED IN THE LAST 30 YEARS and water levels were still rising.
PAKISTAN told fishermen in the country’s southwest to stay ashore during the next 24 hours as one of the strongest cyclones in years damaged boats and buildings. In Pakistan, rough seas have already damaged dozens of fishing boats in southwestern Baluchistan province, especially near a multi-million-dollar Chinese-funded deep sea port at Gwadar. "The sea conditions are likely to become very rough.” Strong winds had damaged more than 100 fishing boats anchored at the Arabian Sea port at Gwadar and partially damaged a school building and a private house further inland.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - Hundreds of people were forced to evacuate Fujairah's popular seaside resorts yesterday as Cyclone Gonu edged closer to the UAE's east coast. As the storm battered Muscat, in Oman, high winds, huge tides and torrential rain led to authorities evacuating residents in areas of Fujairah and Kalba - bussing them to temporary refuge centres at a number of local schools. And along the seafront, holidaymakers from hotels were evacuated and relocated further west as police closed key roads along the coast, while authorities urged residents to stay calm but avoid unnecessary trips to coastal areas. A member of staff at Sandy Beach Hotel and Resort, Fujairah, said: “It's very frightening now. Our beach has disappeared and the tide has reached the swimming pool. Our customers have all left. We have no idea what will happen or when.” One resident of Kalba who was trapped by flooded roads and prevented from reaching his home spoke of his fear as the cyclone approached. Hundreds living in the path of the storm were advised to evacuate immediately after violent waves destroyed sheds and huts located at the edge of the beach area. The worst of the weather for the east coast of the UAE is yet to come and likely to arrive later today: “The forecast suggests the eye of the storm will pass the east coast of the UAE tonight but these things are a law unto themselves - they can suddenly veer off course or move round in circles. It has slowed down, and while the predicted track has moved slightly more to the west, so far things are pretty much as predicted. It's a case of watching and waiting.” Dubai is likely to see an increase in high cloud and winds today with a risk of some thunderstorms as the cyclone moves closer to the UAE. Fishermen in Kalba saw several of their boats destroyed due to the impact of the waves. Dozens of fishermen were seen risking their lives by entering the water to pull out their boats. “We knew this was coming and we had tied up all our boats. But the impact was so strong that the anchors broke off. Many of us have losses worth thousands due to this cyclone."

Cyclone GONU was 406 nmi WSW of Karachi, Pakistan.

OMAN - Thousands of people fled as the STRONGEST CYCLONE TO THREATEN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN 60 YEARS, SINCE RECORD-KEEPING STARTED IN 1945, blasted Oman's eastern coast with strong winds. Cyclone Gonu, which had been churning northwest through the Indian Ocean, reached the Omani coastal towns of Sur and Ra's al-Hadd early Wednesday and was dropping heavy rains on the capital, Muscat, and other nearby towns. The cyclone was packing winds of up to 260 kph and churning up ocean waves of more than a meter, but it was not known if the storm was causing any immediate damage. The cyclone is expected to move north across the Persian Gulf to Iran's southeastern coast. Heavy rain and strong winds are expected. (photo)
Super cyclone Gonu approached the Arabian Peninsula with winds reaching an estimated 250 kilometers per hour and torrential rain. The Gulf states in its path weathered the storm with alerts and preparedness on a war footing. The intensity of the storm was likely to recede considerably in the event that Gonu reaches the Eastern Province. Oman was predicted to receive up to 150mm of rain within 24 hours and the storm surge associated with the cyclone might raise the sea level by as much as 10 meters. The coast of the emirate of Fujairah was battered yesterday as Gonu passed the area by late evening. No casualties were reported. Hundreds of onlookers, eager to see the huge waves, were present on the beaches of Fujairah, Kalba, Khorfakkan, Bidya, Giraya and Mirbah. Authorities have taken all measures to meet any emergency situations and a fleet of ambulances and emergency vehicles is ready in the coastal areas. The storm has weakened very slightly over the past 24 hours but maintained wind speeds of well over 200 km. “Over the last 12 to 24 hours, (June 4 - 5) the storm has indicated a slight move northward. If this is the case, we expect it to reach Iran about midnight UK time Thursday (3 a.m. Friday local).” Cyclonic storms are common during a short season and generally form in the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining central Arabian Sea in the months of May, October, November and December. Few reach land. If the cyclone reaches the deserts of the southwestern Arabian Peninsula, its energy source — derived from the combination of latent heat, condensation and warm water — will be deprived of water. The evaporation of moisture, which is accelerated by the high winds and reduced atmospheric pressure in the storm, results in a positive feedback loop. As a result, when a tropical cyclone passes over land — and especially in this case, desert — its strength diminishes rapidly and it fizzles out.
IRAN - Authorities evacuated hundreds of residents of the Iranian port of Chabahr on the Coast of Oman Sea. Iran's meteorological department warned people in other coastal areas and islands in the Oman Sea and Strait of Hormuz to keep their distance from the waters and avoid any sea transport. It also said that height of the waves would reach to 5.5 meters (18 feet), a RARE RECORD in the area. No deaths had been reported by midmorning Wednesday across Oman or its capital, Muscat, where visibility was near-zero at midmorning. Rains had subsided slightly earlier Wednesday but had intensified again by midmorning and were expected to remain strong through midafternoon. Electricity was out in some parts of the city and many roads were closed, but Omani officials said most of the country's oilfields, to the northwest of the capital, were still operating. The storm had weakened considerably since Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds of about 90 miles per hour (145 kph) were reported with gusts to nearly 104 miles per hour (167 kph). Oman's eastern provinces were cut off, with heavy rains making the roads unusable and communication lines severed. On Tuesday, as the cyclone approached, authorities evacuated nearly 7,000 people from Masirah, a lowland island off the east coast of Oman. Masirah Island includes one of four air bases that the Omani government allows the US military to use for refueling, logistics and storage. The Masirah base hosted US B-1B bombers, C-130 transports and US Special Forces AC-130 gunships during the war in Afghanistan.

6/5/07 -
Cyclone GONU was 341 nmi SW of Karachi, Pakistan.

Powerful cyclone Gonu began buffeting Oman today, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people from Masirah Island in the Arabian Sea and closing the country's main gas export terminal. The Arabian Sea's MOST POWERFUL STORM IN MODERN TIMES has the potential to cause the complete destruction of mobile homes, major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore, and prompt massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10km, according to experts. Gonu, which earlier reached the equivalent of a maximum-force Category Five hurricane, was expected to be worse than a destructive cyclone that hit the island in 1977. Although the cyclone was not previously thought to threaten the UAE, the ruler of Dubai has set up an emergency panel to follow up the latest developments. As winds of up to 260 kmh (160 mph) and waves as high as 12 metres battered Oman's eastern coast, the state news agency forecast thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and floods. "This weather is QUITE UNUSUAL and they're calling it the worst in Oman's modern history." It is POSSIBLY THE MOST POWERFUL STORM TO HAVE EVER FORMED IN THE GULF REGION since records started in 1945. The U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast that, after passing Oman, the storm would head towards Iran.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - Despite not being in the direct path of the cyclone, Fujairah has been hit by flooding. Strong sea waves are pushing huge quantities of water onto many areas of the East Coast causing a number of road closures and diversions as the early effects of Cyclone Gonu are felt. Civil defence and police were out in force to secure coastal locations and deal with the effects of the road closures as municipality workers worked overtime to pump excess water off the roads. Crowds of onlookers, curious to see the spectacle of sea waters swallowing-up huge chunks of Fujairah's beaches, gathered to take photos. In Kalba, authorities closed up the outbound corniche road, a key route linking Kalba to Fujairah, after it was submerged by sea water. (photos)
INDIA - cyclone Gonu has hampered the progress of the annual monsoon. The arrival of the monsoon has been delayed by a week due to the cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea.
Tropical cyclone Gonu is now category 5 with 40 ft. waves. Winds were sustained near 160 mph and movement was to the northwest at around 12 mph. Gonu is expected to be near the northeastern tip of Oman late Wednesday. It should be somewhat weaker by then with maximum sustained winds down to 115 mph, but still equivalent to a category three hurricane. After that, the cyclone is forecast to swirl northeastward along the northern coast of Oman and move into the Gulf of Oman as a tropical storm. While tropical storms have hit Oman in the past, they are RARE, and there is no record of a hurricane-strength cyclone striking the country. The last tropical storm to smack the nation was in June 1996.
OMAN has evacuated 7000 people from coastal areas. Residents of the island of Masirah in the Arabian Sea as well as of Oman's eastern coastline have sought refuge on higher ground after meteorologists warned that the storm was expected to make landfall in the next 30 hours. The cyclone originated in the Arabian Sea and is moving at a rate of seven to 10km/h. The storm was expected to be accompanied by high waves as well as heavy rains.
Gonu is UNUSUALLY POWERFUL and UNUSUALLY FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. The first land in the path of Gonu, as it was moving on Monday, would be easternmost Oman. Extreme, UNUSUAL weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh) cannot be ruled out. (satellite photo) Gonu is THE FIRST EVER CATEGORY-5 STORM OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. Gonu dominates the flow of weather throughout South Asia at this time. The potential for RARE June rains over a wide area of eastern and northeast Arabia is at hand, and Gonu moisture could breed torrential thunderstorms triggering flash flooding at a time when blistering sunshine is more typically the norm.

6/4/07 -
Cyclone GONU was 387 nmi SSW of Karachi, Pakistan.

Cyclone Gonu continues to track toward the southeast coast of Oman.Several forecast models depict a slightly more northward track that would take the system into the Gulf of Oman.

Tropical Storm Barry and its remnants gave a much-needed soaking to thousands of acres of burning swamp and timberland in northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Though Saturday's rainfall — as much as six inches (15.2 centimeters) in some spots — was a tremendous help, it's still a live fire. "Contained does not mean controlled, and it does not mean extinguished." The fire, which crews have battled for more than a month, is now about 85 percent contained. Barry weakened to a depression Saturday morning.

6/3/07 -
Tropical depression BARBARA was 109 nmi WNW of Guatemala City, Guatemala.
Tropical depression BARRY was 101 nmi W of Melbourne, Florida.
Tropical cyclone GONU was 412 nmi WSW of Bombay, India.

Tropical Storm Barry was headed to north Florida on Saturday and a tropical storm warning remained in effect for a stretch of the state's northwestern coast. The storm was centered about 240 miles southwest of Tampa and about 160 miles west of Key West at about 2 a.m. It had sustained winds near 50 mph and was moving north northeast near 10 mph. Forecasters expected Barry to continue the same path and increase speed over the next day, but a slight decrease in strength was anticipated before the storm's possible landfall. "We're not looking for a hurricane." Barry threatens to bring dangerous battering waves, coastal flooding of up to 5 feet and rainfall of three to six inches in the Florida Keys up through southeast Georgia. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 90 miles.

Tropical Storm Barbara made landfall today near the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Guatemala, lashing coffee and sugar-growing regions with wind and rain but not causing any injuries or major damage. Barbara was located just southwest of the Mexican city of Tapachula, a few kilometres from the Guatemalan border and the heart of an important agricultural region. While it packed sustained winds of 85km/h, and higher gusts, it will likely weaken as it moved inland. Earlier predictions had Barbara developing into a hurricane over the weekend and barreling toward Mexican coastal resorts like Puerto Escondido.
Pacific tropical storm Barbara on Friday caused heavy rain in Central America and the Caribbean which led to the deaths of at least 14 people. Authorities in the Dominican Republic said that floods had caused the deaths of eight people, while at least 8,000 more had to be evacuated from their homes Friday. In El Salvador, four people died as a result of landslides. Another two people were killed in flooding Friday night as the storm reached Cuba. Hurricanes are particularly dangerous in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, because the heavy rains they bring often trigger landslides and floods. Many homes, particularly in poorer areas, stand on hillsides that are particularly vulnerable.

6/1/07 -
Tropical depression ALVIN was 708 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression BARBARA was 192 nmi S of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Barbara weakened off Mexico's southwestern Pacific coast Thursday. Forecasters predicted the storm may hit land, but said it was unlikely to become a hurricane. Barbara's winds were clocked at around 40 mph, down from 54 mph late Wednesday, and it was inching along about 155 miles south-southwest of the coastal town of Puerto Angel. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm could still strengthen to windspeeds of around 55 mph, and may hit Mexico's coast in an area about 60 miles to the east of Puerto Angel sometime Monday. The storm may dump heavy rain and cause dangerous flooding along the Mexican and Guatemalan coasts by Saturday, but Barbara could also change direction, head out to sea and die. The first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific's 2007 season, Alvin faded at sea Thursday.

5/31/07 -
Tropical depression ALVIN was 649 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm BARBARA was 209 nmi SSW of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Barbara off the southwestern coast of Mexico could build to hurricane strength within days. Barbara follows Alvin, the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific's 2007 season. It's UNPRECEDENTED FOR THERE TO BE TWO NAMED EASTERN PACIFIC STORMS IN MAY. The hurricane center has named only two May storms in the past, in 1984 and 1956. Barbara is about 118 miles south-southwest of the Mexican fishing village of Puerto Angel, and is nearly stationary, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles-per-hour. It was unclear whether Barbara would turn toward land or head out to open sea after strengthening, but people living along the western coasts of Mexico and Guatemala should monitor the storm in any case, the hurricane center said. Meanwhile, Alvin, the first tropical storm of the 2007 season in the eastern Pacific, has been downgraded to a tropical depression. That storm, which formed far off Mexico's western coast on Monday, was heading west, away from land.

5/30/07 -
Tropical depression 02E was 220 nmi SE of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical depression ALVIN was 650 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical depression 02E's path is unclear at this time - several models forecast a northeastward motion to landfall in eastern Mexico or Guatemala. Another forcasts a northward motion and a landfall in eastern Mexico. Others forecast a westward motion with no landfall. It may reach hurricane strength in two to three days.

5/29/07 -
Tropical depression ALVIN was 629 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, the first of the 2007 Eastern North Pacific Season.

5/28/07 -
Tropical depression 01E was 590 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

5/27/07 -
Tropical depression 01E was 580 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

The forecasting model for O1E was calling for a slow westward motion. A potential complicating factor is the possibllity that another tropical cyclone will form east of the depression as forecast models show - should this occur, this could cause tropical depression O1E to have erratic motion.

5/25/07 -
None.

5/24/07 -
None.

BARBADOS - There may be good news for Barbados hurricane-wise as the recent trend of near misses caused by intense hurricane activity in the southern Caribbean may soon change. This could all be due to climate change. Projections coming out of last year's United Nations conference on climate change indicated that hurricane systems would soon return to their traditional pattern of passing through the northern Caribbean. In recent years, several devastating systems such as Tropical Storm Lili and Hurricanes Ivan and Emily wreaked havoc in the southern Caribbean, barely missing Barbados as they took an UNUSUAL PATH through the southern region. However, the "medium to long-term outlook is for systems to form further north, to return to the old track". The strength of a high pressure weather system known as the Bermuda High had been partly responsible for pushing hurricanes further south in recent times. However, while Barbadians might be able to breathe easier in the future, this year's hurricane season is predicted to be very active. United States government forecasters yesterday predicted a busier than normal season. National Weather Service forecasters said they expected 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to ten of them becoming hurricanes. Forecaster William Gray predicted that this year's season would be more active than usual, with an "above-average" chance of hurricane landfall in the Caribbean. According to Gray and his team, the 2007 season would have 17 named storms, way above the average of 9.6. They are also forecasting nine hurricanes, again more than the average of 5.9, and five major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes. The likelihood of above normal hurricane activity was 75 per cent, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

5/23/07 -
None.

5/22/07 -
Typhoon YUTU was 611 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.

5/21/07 -
Typhoon YUTU was 599 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Typhoon Yutu, the second named storm of the Western Pacific cyclone season, headed for the Japanese island of Iwo Jima, with winds of 212 kilometers per hour, (132 miles per hour). The eye of Yutu, where winds are gusting to as high as 258 kilometers per hour, was about 502 kilometers southwest of Iwo Jima at 9 a.m. Japan time, according to the latest advisory on the Navy's Web site. Yutu, a Category Four storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, was moving northeast at about 29 kilometers an hour and is forecast to cross Iwo Jima, which is 1,224 kilometers south of Tokyo, by tonight. Wave heights in the vicinity of Yutu's eye are 12 meters (40 feet). By tonight the storm is forecast to weaken to a Category Two storm with 175 kilometer per hour winds and is expected to continue losing strength as it maintains a northeasterly path. By tomorrow night Yutu will probably weaken into a tropical storm.

BANGLADESH - Five sailors were rescued by local fishermen from where they were found floating in the coastal area of Manaung Island after their ship sank during cyclone Akash. However, two other sailors are still missing after the ship sank on May 14. In Bangladesh there are about 100 fishermen that have been missing since the cyclone; the bodies of two cyclone victims were recovered by Bangladeshi authorities in the coastal area of Teknaf Townshipon May 18.

"FEMA Vows They're Ready For Hurricane Season" - Yet FEMA admits that they will not have their emergency response plans ready by the start of this hurricane season on June 1. Compounding the problem, the levees that failed to protect New Orleans two years ago are still not up to code and there is turmoil at the agency in charge of predicting and tracking storms with the new director of the National Hurricane Center publicly announcing that they are being denied the proper resources to perform their job. Some are even saying that the Iraq war has drained states of National Guard resources that play a key role in any emergency response within the U.S. One forecaster is predicting at least nine hurricanes will hit the United States this season. There has already been movement in the gulf when tropical storm Andrea formed off the Northern Florida coast two weeks ago. (video)

5/20/07 -
Typhoon YUTU was 578 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Tropical storm Amang (international name Yutu) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday.

5/18/07 -
Cyclone PIERRE was 636 nmi NE of Cairns, Australia.
Tropical storm YUTU was 523 nmi WSW of Agana, Guam.

Tropical Storm Yutu, the second named storm of the Pacific cyclone season, formed west of Guam to the south of Japan and may become a typhoon. The storm, with maximum sustained winds of 101 kilometers an hour (60 miles per hour), was about 972 kilometers west of Dadedo on the island of Guam at 9 a.m. Japan time. Yutu, with typhoon-strength gusts of 129 kilometers per hour, is moving northwest at about 22 kilometers an hour. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon by tonight as it heads on a path Navy forecasters say will take it over the Japanese island of Iwo Jima. Wave heights in the vicinity of the eye of the storm are as high as 6 meters (20 feet). The storm's winds are forecast to strengthen to 120 kilometers per hour with gusts as high as 147 kilometers per hour by tonight.

Tropical Cyclone Pierre will continue moving towards Cape York Peninsula, in far north Queensland, and gradually intensify over the next 24 hours. The category-one system is currently situated 1,200 kilometres east of the cape community of Lockhart River. Winds along the eastern cape should start to pick up over the weekend. It is UNUSUAL to see a cyclone form this late in the season. "Early in the season in October, in that area there's only been about eight cyclones since about 1926 formed in that region, so it's unusual but I wouldn't really put it down as a rare event."

5/17/07 -
Tropical depression 02W was 369 nmi SW of Agana, Guam.

The United States military’s Typhoon Warning Centre in Hawaii is monitoring the possible tropical cyclone. Conditions are right for a tropical cyclone to form south of the Mariana islands within the next 12 to 24 hours. The warning centre is monitoring the weather system about 260 nautical miles south of Guam which has undergone "significant consolidation" during the previous 12 hours.

5/16/07 -
None.

THAILAND - The Meteorological Department warned Tuesday that many provinces would still be hit with heavy rains now that the cyclone has landed on the Burmese coast. The cyclone was packing wind power of 75 kilometres per hour and was about 700 kms northwest of Rangoon, moving northeast at the speed of 10 kms per hour as of 4 am Tuesday.
BANGLADESH - Three fishermen were killed at Saint Martin's Island while at least 50 others went missing in the bay as cyclone Akash crossed the coastal area yesterday morning and weakened into a land depression. A tidal surge triggered by the cyclonic storm with winds up to 80 kph, swept through the coastal district of Cox's Bazar at about 9:00am yesterday, damaging some two thousand houses. On Saint Martin's Island, some 45 houses and 30 shops were flattened and around 200 trees were uprooted by the cyclone while a fishing boat capsized in the sea. Twenty fishing boats were rescued. In Cox's Bazar, the storm and accompanying rain cut off power and uprooted trees, while the tidal surge swamped several roads. At least 10 boats with some 50 fishermen aboard are still missing. Two hectares of shrimp farms and six kilometres of embankment were washed away in the 4-feet (1.2 metre) high tidal waves in the wake of the storm, but fortunately it did not cause as much damage as was feared initially. Reports from the coastal areas said that several chars and lowlands near the river banks and coasts were flooded due to high tide prompted by the cyclone since Monday morning.

5/15/07 -
Cyclone AKASH was 32 nmi E of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

THAILAND - Hundreds of homes and farms in Thailand's northern provinces have been inundated, and more rain is on the way, all due to a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, west of neighbouring Myanmar. Hundreds of families in Pichit were affected by floods, with homes and farmland in Photalae district and a concrete bridge destroyed by rising torrents. In Nakhon Sawan, continuous rain has caused flooding and road links with other communities have been cut off. Some 4,000 acres of croplands were inundated. Residents of low-lying areas have been warned of imminent flash floods. In Phrae, a flash flood hit three villages in Wangshin district. Hundreds of homes have been damaged, and few villagers were able to move their belongings to higher ground before the onrushing waters arrived. Many farming families reported that their livestock was swept away by the floodwaters. Provincial authorities in Phrae warned residents of five districts to brace for more flash floods. In Uttaradit, local authorities are concerned about the flood situation. Some 4,000 acres of paddy fields were under one-metre deep floodwaters. The Meteorological Department warns of further heavy rain throughout Thailand as the weather system is influenced by the Bay of Bengal cyclone.

BANGLADESH - Around 12:30am today the depression, centred around 100km off Cox's Bazar coast, was moving towards Chittagong with a speed of 80km per hour. Thousands of people of Saint Martin's Island, Teknaf and Cox's Bazar took shelter in nearby cyclone shelters last night. Four boats reportedly went missing at Paharchura in Teknaf and another fishing boat with 14 fishermen has gone missing too. The sea rose seven feet above the usual height of tide while rainfall in the last 18-hour was recorded at 53mm. "Gusty wind has sent our tin roof flying and we can see the wind bringing trees down to the ground." "Sea waves are leaping high like mountains now and our house has already been flooded by sea water," said a shop owner at Saint Martin's Island. "We are crying and praying to Allah as the wind is blowing with such a force that I won't even be able to go to a shelter now."
As many as 80,000 people have been evacuated to cyclone shelters in Bangladesh as the tropical storm blew in towards the low-lying South Asian country. About 100 fisherman and up to 20 boats have been reported missing as rain and strong winds swept Bangladesh's coast. The body of one man had already been washed ashore. Tropical storms and cyclones kill hundreds of Bangladeshis every year. One of the worst cyclones to hit the country killed 138,000 people in 1991.

5/14/07 -
Cyclone 01B was 293 nmi W of Rangoon, Burma and 377 nmi S of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

BANGLADESH - Tropical storm 01B is forecast to strike Bangladesh as a severe cyclonic storm at about 06:00 GMT on May 15.

Western Pacific typhoon season - Though typhoons rarely occur north of the equator before June 1 and after Nov. 30, one did this year. Typhoon Kong-rey passed more than 100 miles north of Guam on April 2, bringing the island between 1 and 2 inches of rain and 30 mph winds. Much like hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons form in the tropics and barrel northward and westward, packing high winds and heavy rains. “Upper-level winds tend to be stronger the further north you go, so (tropical storms) tend to get blown apart as they move north.” In the past three years, weather officials have recorded 75 typhoons, including a record-tying 32 in 2004. Conditions could be more ripe this year than in recent years for typhoons to form further east in the Pacific then curve north toward Okinawa. “The concern is the pattern may set up that they’ll recurve over the top of us.” Only one storm hit Okinawa in 2005, and two last year.

FLORIDA - The waves at New Smyrna beach have calmed down after Tropical Storm Andrea brewed off the coast of Florida last week. She left her mark on Central Florida's beaches. New Smyrna Beach suffered three feet of erosion after the storm slowly dissipated off the coast. In some parts of the beach, there is little erosion, while in other parts, there is little beach left to enjoy. Since Andrea rearranged the ocean floor, rip tides are a concern. Sailing from St. Petersburg through the storm really took the wind out of boat as it tried to navigate through Ponce Inlet. The 41-foot sailboat is considered to be a total loss after the wind blew the sail completely off the boat.

Here is the list of hurricane names for 2007:
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy. (This link also has the names from 2006 and for the upcoming years through 2011.)

5/13/07 -
None.

What creates an Atlantic hurricane? The most devastating ones are spurred by intense thunderstorms in the Ethiopian highlands, according to new research. The link between lightning strikes and hurricane formation should give researchers a heads-up about when a nasty hurricane might form, weeks before it could make landfall in the United States. Currently scientists apply various models to predict storm tracks and strength, but only once they form over the Atlantic Ocean. The 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons were markedly different from each other. In 2005 there were a record 28 named storms, including the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, while 2006 brought only 10 named storms — a 64% reduction. Summertime lightning activity in eastern Africa, mainly in the Ethiopian highlands, was also quite different in each of the years, the researchers found, with 23% less activity in 2006 over 2005. Heavy lightning in eastern Africa apparently perturbs the westward trade winds across the African continent. So the larger the thunderstorm, the greater the atmospheric turbulence. This turbulence, in turn, creates low-pressure areas known as African easterly waves. About half of these systems are known to generate tropical storms as they head westwards over the Atlantic. Various factors, including sea surface temperature, dust and wind shear above the Atlantic, then determine whether those storms strengthen into hurricanes. All periods of intense lightning in eastern Africa monitored in both 2005 and 2006 were followed by an AEW low-pressure area. Researchers suggest that forecasters and emergency response personnel keep an eye on major thunderstorms in eastern Africa during the upcoming hurricane season, in order to gauge its likely severity.

5/11/07 -
Tropical depression ANDREA was 94 nmi E of Jacksonville, Florida.

The remnant of Andrea should gradually spin down over the next couple of days and is expected to gradually loop cyclonically to the northeast over the next 48 hours. The remnant low could hold together long enough to interact with a developing baroclinic cyclone off the U.S. East Coast.
Andrea was THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN MAY IN MORE THAN 25 YEARS. The off-season system likely won't douse any North Florida wildfires or bring rain to drought-stricken South Florida. But it will bring a day or two more of smoky haze on top of a week's worth of beach erosion. "If things couldn't get stranger..." said the executive director of the South Florida Water Management District. "It's unreal. People are hoping it's not an omen of things to come." An early season storm doesn't portend a busy storm season, hurricane forecasters were quick to say. Andrea began as a typical low-pressure system in the North Atlantic and became lost. "This is just a freak system that formed off the coast of Canada, moved south, then became cut off from its front. You can't correlate it to hurricane season." The water temperature beneath Andrea is less than 77 degrees. The storm would need 79- to 82-degree water to intensify. Andrea is wandering slowly toward the coast - fighting relatively cold water beneath, upper-level wind shear and the coastline. Forecasters say it should dissipate off the Flagler County coast by late Sunday. Five-foot breakers crashed over the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday, causing erosion. Coast Guard officials in South Carolina said they had rescued one of two kayakers who had been missing since Tuesday. The other was still missing.

5/10/07 -
Tropical storm ANDREA was 102 nmi ENE of Jacksonville, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed off the southeastern US coast yesterday, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is "kind of a half-breed" and forecasters are not viewing the storm as a major threat. Subtropical systems are hybrid weather formations that are usually weaker than hurricanes and tropical storms. They share characteristics of tropical systems, which get their power from warm ocean waters at their centers, and more typical bad weather that forms when warm and cold fronts collide. Forecasters have predicted that the 2007 season that starts June first and ends November 30th will be especially active. They predict the season will produce up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the United States.
Andrea might have been more than 200 miles away from the Florida coast, but signs of the first named storm of the year were hard to miss Wednesday on the Treasure Coast. The subtropical storm continued to stir up large waves at local beaches and helped carry smoke into the area from fires near Naples and as far north as Georgia. Waves of 4 feet to 6 feet were reported, though much less erosion than the day before, when waves swept away dozens of sea turtle nests and inched closer to beachfront buildings. The St. Lucie County Commissioner said the loss of sand was the greatest he has seen in one day. "The beach is 5 feet further west than it was Tuesday as the dune washes away. The sand is 4 or 5 feet further down than on Tuesday."
Strong winds and waves carved sand from some South Carolina beaches, and gas and power lines were shut off Wednesday as a precaution when water lapped at the base of several homes and condominiums. Only eighteen tropical storms and four hurricanes have been recorded in May since 1851.

5/9/07 -
None.

NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA - 'Special Tropical Disturbance Statement': A non-tropical low pressure system east of Jacksonville Florida has been moving slowly westward. The low is producing gale-force winds near the coasts. The low is being monitored for signs of tropical or subtropical cyclone development and an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.

FLORIDA - When it comes to their beaches, the massive extra-tropical storm off the Atlantic coast may cause even more damage than a hurricane. Volusia County officials are getting a little concerned about homes that have no sea wall. When the sun came up in New Smyrna Beach on Tuesday, beachgoers saw quite a sight. High waves pounded the sand and lapped at the seawall. It was enough to impress even the most experienced surfers. "I've never seen it this big." The Atlantic low pressure system was battering Volusia County’s beaches on Tuesday, and county officials said it's hard to predict how much erosion it could cause. The winds coming from the north and northeast have a history of sucking Volusia's sand out to sea. The UNUSUAL waves have some who stay along the coast feeling a little uneasy. The waves, that some say rival surf from a hurricane or tropical storm, are an amazing sight. Lifeguards warned swimmers to stay out of the water with the heavy seas creating extremely dangerous rip currents. (satellite photo / video)
The weather system is considered UNUSUAL for this time of year. A nor'easter has not formed during late spring in the Carolinas in the past 12 years. The weather also increases the chance of of forest fires because of the high winds and low humidity. In North Carolina, the weather was blamed in at least three rescues at sea Monday. The cool water temperatures are keeping the system from becoming the first named storm of the season.

5/8/07 -
None.

FLORIDA - Brevard County was under high surf and wind advisories Monday as a developing low pressure center off the Carolina coast moves closer to Florida. Forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Melbourne warned beach-goers to stay out of the water because of 12- to 16-foot waves and dangerous rip currents. Winds of 25 to 39 mph were expected to hit the coast Monday and today as the low pressure system churns near Florida. Forecasters may extend advisories until Wednesday. Forecasters said the system might become a subtropical storm as it approaches the Florida coast over the next two days. A subtropical storm has the characteristics of both a low pressure system and a tropical storm, which has a warm core circulation. If the storm's winds reach sustained speeds of 39 mph or higher, the National Hurricane Center may name the system Andrea. The hurricane season does not officially start until June 1. An intensifying storm off the Carolina coast could briefly include tropical-storm strength winds and wave heights before weakening late today or Wednesday as it moves closer to the coast. However, it is not expected that the disturbance will become Andrea, the first named tropical storm of the 2007 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. Monday morning, a buoy located 175 miles east of Cape Hatteras, N.C., recorded sustained winds of 63 mph and an 80 mph gust. Early this afternoon, the buoy registered waves about 40 feet high. The high seas could lead to coastal flooding, especially during high tide. The Severe Weather Center lists the coastal flood warnings in effect from southern Virginia to Florida. Winds circulating around the low will heighten the wildfire danger in Georgia and Florida. Red Flag Warnings have been issued across much of Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.

5/7/07 -
None.

5/6/07 -
None.

U.S. East Coast - residents are being encouraged to prepare for the hurricane season that starts June 1. No matter whether a wildfire, a hurricane or severe thunderstorm is threatening, emergency officials say, the message is the same: Get a plan. "It is time to be prepared." Officials are urging people to get themselves and their businesses prepared to withstand a week or two after a hurricane. If people will do that, "we'll be resilient as a people and a nation." Officials are worried about one of the satellites the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration depends on for hurricane forecast information. The QuickScat satellite, launched in 1999, is on its backup transmitter and may fail at any time. It uses high-frequency microwaves to measure the sea surface, gathering critical information about wind speeds and hurricane direction. If it fails, forecasts could be up to 16 percent less accurate, and that could cost more money and time by requiring officials to evacuate larger areas ahead of an approaching hurricane.

AUSTRALIA - Cyclone Larry took a severe toll on the mental health of children in the North Queensland area it devastated, with more than one in 10 still traumatised months later. 11 per cent of primary-aged kids met the criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder three months after the cyclone hit last March. Adolescents were more resilient, with four per cent reporting psychological symptoms of stress - only slightly higher than the rate among affected adults. Children exposed to more cyclone destruction had higher rates. For example, children who lost the roof off their homes had a triple risk of developing the condition, and the risk increased five-fold in those children who had to be evacuated. "If they thought they were going to die, they were 11 times more likely to get PTSD."

5/4/07 - 4/25/07 -
None.

PHILIPPINES - the navy began preparations Tuesday for new typhoons which are expected to hit the country later this year. More than 1,000 people were killed by a series of super typhoons which hit the Philippines from October till December last year. A mudslide caused by storm also buried alive some 1,000 people in southern Leyte, southeastern Philippines one year ago. Disaster readiness initiatives will be taken at various naval forces nationwide to ensure that they will be ready to respond and provide the necessary assistance to civilians once natural disasters strike.

4/24/07 - 4/22/07 -
NONE.

4/20/07 -
None.

4/19/07 -
None.

The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes - Many researchers think warming is causing the storms to get stronger, but others aren't so sure. A new study raises the possibility that global warming might make it harder for tropical cyclones to form. Warm water provides the energy that drives hurricanes, so warmer conditions should make the storms stronger. But warming also causes an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. When a hurricane encounters vertical wind shear, the hurricane can weaken when the heat of rising air dissipates over a larger area. "We don't know whether the change in shear will cancel out the increased potential from warming oceans, but the shear increase would tend to make the Atlantic and east Pacific less favorable to hurricanes. Which one of the two, warming oceans or increasing shear, will be the dominant factor? Will they cancel out? We and others are currently exploring those very questions, and we hope to have a better grasp on that answer in the near future. What we can say is that the magnitude of the shear change is large enough that it cannot be ignored."

The Atlantic Basin hurricane season officially starts June 1 and runs to the end of November. Pre-season and post-season storms and hurricanes have occurred and will continue to into the future, although they are rare (and it's even rarer that they make landfall in the U.S.).

4/18/07 -
None.

VIETNAM - Central Vietnam has been hit by another cyclone - A cyclone hit Dak Lak province in Vietnam’s central highlands Monday night, injuring 27 people. The half-hour storm destroyed 15 houses and damaged 73 other houses and three schoolrooms in two communes in Ea Sup district. Last Saturday a much stronger cyclone, carrying with it sand and rocks, raged through the central Quang Nam province’s Dai Hong commune, devastating at least 500 houses, injuring 20 people, and leaving over 1,000 people homeless. It brought winds clocking speeds of 150-180km per hour. Over 50 percent of houses in hardest-hit Duc Tinh village collapsed or had their roofs blown off. Trees and fields were left in a mess, transformed into a massive garbage dump by the unexpected weather. All electricity and telephone lines have been cut. (photo)

4/17/07 -
None.

4/16/07 -
None.

VIETNAM - Local authorities have joined the relief effort after an unexpected cyclone slammed into central Vietnam Saturday, injuring 21 and destroying hundreds of homes and hectares of crops. From 4pm to 5pm, the whirlwind – clocking speeds of 150-180km per hour – blew down on Quang Nam province’s Dai Hong commune. Stones and extremely violent winds pounded some homes, lifting some into the air, ripping the roofs off many and collapsing others. Authorities estimate at least 21 people were injured, over 500 houses, dozens of schoolrooms, and nearly 100 ha of maize, 35 ha of paddy and 15 ha of peanut fields were destroyed. The cyclone also hit nearby Dai Lanh commune where 52 houses and four schoolrooms lost their roofs. Witnesses said the weather had been favorable, even beautiful. But around 4pm, dark clouds began to form, followed by fierce thunder and lightning, and strong winds. Many said the sudden storm was far fiercer than Typhoon Xangsane, which hit the region September last year. Xangsane was one of the most destructive storms in Vietnamese history.

4/15/07 - 4/10/07 -
None.

4/9/07 -
None.

FIJI - Over a week after Tropical Cyclone Cliff passed over the Fiji group, the full extent of damages in the islands in the Lau group remains unknown. The Minister for Fijian Affairs and Regional Development said there are numerous difficulties in trying to obtain information from the islands.

4/8/07 -
None.

FIJI - Disaster management officials have received reports of extensive damage to root crops on islands in the Lau group after Cyclone Cliff struck Fiji’s Eastern and Northern divisions last Wednesday.
Villagers in Udu Point on Vanua Levu claim the Meteorology Department only issued a cyclone alert after heavy rain and strong winds had raged through the northern division. The villagers want the weather station to upgrade its system and workers' skills to ensure future warnings are heard hours or days before a cyclone. Strong winds and heavy rains brought in by Cyclone Cliff started at about 10am on Thursday and villagers did not hear a warning before that. "That morning most of us had our radios turned on. We suspected the weather would change because it started to get dark and cold from 7am. And during that time, we did not hear any warnings at all so we didn't prepare ourselves or put up shelters to protect our homes because we never expected a hurricane." The heavy rain caused the river behind the village to rise and burst the banks, forcing flood waters into village homes. The doors to some houses were forced open by the flood waters. That was when the men ran out of their homes to help the women, children and elderly people onto higher ground. Despite the heavy rain and cold weather, the villagers had no other choice but to flee to a hill beside the village as flood waters were almost 2 metres high in the village ground.

4/6/07 -
Cyclone CLIFF was 967 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.

FIJI - Many areas affected by Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the North remain inaccessible. Red Cross teams are unable to get into the affected areas as yet due to the number of landslides that have restricted or cut off access to these places and they are concerned over the welfare of the villages who remain stranded.
TONGA - Tropical Cyclone Cliff is now moving away from Tonga after bringing strong winds last night. The gusts were weaker than predicted, with the strongest reaching 56 kilometres per hour rather than the 93 kilometres expected. The storm stayed well off shore.

GUAM - much of Guam's waters remain dangerous today. Large north swells generated by Typhoon Kong-Rey will bring hazardous surf to north and west facing reefs. A high surf advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Sunday along all reefs. The rip current risk is at high, which means pounding surf will produce dangerous rip currents at reefs and beaches.

4/5/07 -
Cyclone CLIFF was 1140 nmi NNE of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone JAYA was 641 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Tropical storm KONG-REY was 594 nmi NNE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

FIJI - School children narrowly escaped a mudslide through their school as Tropical Cyclone Cliff struck Fiji yesterday at category 1. The cyclone peaked about 2pm yesterday when gusts of up to 120km/h hit the northern island Vanua Levu. "We don't know all the damage yet. We know there were roofs blown off and some infrastructure completely destroyed. There were big sea swells. In some places the shores were inundated by the sea." A woman died on Tuesday night while trying to cross a bridge above swollen waters. The cyclone today drifted over the Lau group of islands in Fiji's south east, and was expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression as it headed towards Tonga. Cyclone season in Fiji lasts from about November to the end of April.
Tropical Cyclone Cliff caused considerable damage to a number of roads, some due to landslides and some due to wash-outs.

MADAGASCAR - Tropical cyclone Jaya made landfall on Madagascar's northeastern coast on Tuesday on a projected trajectory that will see it rage through areas already devastated by cyclone Indlala just over two weeks ago. It was the sixth mayor cyclone to hit this season. "This is the WORST CYCLONE SEASON IN THE RECORDED HISTORY OF THE COUNTRY." Officials expressed concern over the lack of international media attention the emergency in Madagascar had received, considering the extent of the multiple disasters and the vulnerability of the island and its people. "It is striking that so little attention is being paid to a crisis that affects so many that are already vulnerable because of poverty." With the cyclone season continuing until the end of April or early May, expectations are that Jaya will not be the last disaster to strike the island. (photo)

4/4/07 -
Cyclone CLIFF was 1250 nmi NNE of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone JAYA was 641 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Typhoon KONG-REY was 357 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

MARIANA ISLANDS - Typhoon Kong-Rey 01W passed and headed away from the Marianas yesterday with no major damage to crops and property. Packing winds of up to 75 miles per hour Typhoon Kong-Rey O1W's nearest approach to CNMI was at 7am when its center was located 50 miles east-northeast of Saipan and 60 miles east-northeast of Tinian. The typhoon caused minor power outages on Saipan, particularly Kagman, Dandan, and the entire southern part of the island. Although the typhoon is moving away from the NMI, the outer or feeder bands of the typhoon could still bring heavy rains and winds resulting in power outages. The heavy rains have flooded some farms. If the rains don't let up soon, some crops will die. In 2005, when Typhoon Nabi struck the islands, agriculture sustained major damage, specifically on vegetable and root crops.

4/3/07 -
Cyclone JAYA was 383 nmi NW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Typhoon KONG-REY was 62 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana.

MADAGASCAR - Natural disasters continue hitting Madagascar, affecting hundreds of thousands of people with the 6th cyclone since December, cyclone Jaya, on the way. Due to the cyclone caused flooding, tens of thousands of hectares of rice, the basic food source for the Malagasy, have been destroyed. Communication infrastructure, roads, schools and health centres have been badly damaged. Since December 2006, approximately 450,000 people have become the victims of natural disasters across Madagascar.

GUAM - Typhoon Kong-Rey, as of 5 a.m., was located 75 miles east southeast of Saipan and 80 miles east of Tinian, in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Kong-Rey is moving northwest at 16 mph, according to the National Weather Service, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The NWS cancelled the typhoon warning for Guam at 8 last night. Kong-Rey was located 120 miles east northeast of Rota, which could still feel tropical storm winds last night and this morning.

4/2/07 -
Cyclone JAYA was 320 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Typhoon KONG-REY was 216 nmi ESE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Intense tropical cyclone Jaya is forecast to strike Madagascar as a category 1 tropical cyclone at about 02:00 GMT on April 3. Jaya is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 138 km/h (86 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

Tropical Storm Kong-Re continues to build in intensity as it heads northwest towards Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The storm is continuing on its track at about 11 miles per hour and Guam continues to be in Condition of Readiness Level "2", with winds expected to get near storm intensity tonight through the wee hours of Tuesday. The Government of Guam urges island residents to secure their homes, buy materials, fuel vehicles and and take appropriate measures to prepare for the storm's arrival. The National Weather Service projects that Guam will feel winds blowing at 39 MPH starting at 9pm tonight. The storm is packing maximum sustained speeds of 80 MPH with higher gusts. The storm is still about 400 miles to the east-southeast of Guam and Rota.

4/1/07 -
Tropical depression 01W was 706 nmi ESE of Agana, Guam and 720 nmi SE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Tropical storm KONG-REY was 472 nmi ESE of Agana, Guam and 480 nmi SE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Cyclone JAYA was 325 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MARIANA ISLANDS - At 6pm Saturday the National Weather Service announced that tropical storm conditions could be possible this Monday or Tuesday for the Mariana Islands. A tropical storm disturbance west of Pohnpei is expected to develop and move northwest, possibly bringing tropical storm conditions to the region by the beginning of the workweek. He said he was not sure when the current images replaced views of the city taken after Katrina struck Aug. 29, 2005. In the images available Thursday, the cranes working to fix the breach of the 17th Street Canal are gone. Blue tarps that covered roofless homes are replaced by shingles. Homes wiped off their foundations are miraculously back in place in the Lower 9th. So, too, is the historic lighthouse on Lake Pontchartrain. "I think a lot of stuff they're doing right now is smoke and mirrors because tourism is so off. It might be somebody's weird spin on things looking better. Is Google part of the conspiracy? Why these images of pre-Katrina? Seems mighty curious."

--------------------
3/30/07 -
Cyclone BECKY was 1013 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Becky has been downgraded to a tropical depression but is continuing to menace parts of the Pacific with heavy rainfall and strong winds. Parts of New Caledonia are on alert-one with schools and public services closed. In New Zealand's north island, residents Opua township are being evacuated as floods close roads and cut power in areas near the Bay of Plenty. Northland police are urging residents evacuate because cliff-top slips are endangering several properties. Police say several buildings, including a motel and a house, have reportedly been swept away by flood waters. There have been no confirmed reports of loss of life. More rain is forecast and warnings have been issued for communities of the country's North Island and some parts of the South Island. The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Nadi says Becky is moving south, south-east, and weakening rapidly.
NEW ZEALAND - Civil defence teams are on standby in the Coromandel Peninsula, where heavy rain is forecast following Thursday's flooding in Northland. The MetService is predicting that the Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne will also see a deluge, with up to 150mm of rain likely to have fallen overnight. Further north, dozens of motorists remain stranded and about 70 people had shelter overnight at the Opua Cruising Club in the Bay of Islands. Police say there were reports of several people being washed away by floodwaters in the Northland region, but they have not had any confirmed reports of loss of life. Several clifftop homes at Opua were evacuated due to the danger of slips, while flooding and slips destroyed much of the Haruru Falls resort and a house was reported destroyed at Waioimo. Parts of State Highway One remain closed between Whangarei and Kawakawa on Friday morning, along with most approaches to the Bay of Islands. Parts of Northland have recorded their HEAVIEST RAINFALLS IN MORE THAN A CENTURY. NEW RECORDS were set in the Puhi Puhi hills north of Whangarei: 366mm of rain fell there in 38 hours, exceding the previous record set in 1905. Kaeo saw its highest rainfall since 1971.

3/29/07 -
Cyclone BECKY was 1047 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

Cyclone Kara is crossing the Pilbara coast at Wallal between Port Hedland and Broome, Australia. It has been downgraded to a category one system with winds of up to 100 kilometres per hour, after earlier generating winds of up to 220 kph. It will soon weaken to a rain-bearing, low pressure system. The communities on Eighty Mile Beach will be more affected by the rain than the wind.

AUSTRALIA - A RARE and UNUSUAL phenomenon deep in the Southern Ocean is creating extreme weather conditions, including hurricane-force winds, off the South Australian coast. Winds of 80 knots, or 150km/h, were recorded south of the Great Australian Bight yesterday, resulting from an intense low which developed since Tuesday. Swells up to 7m were expected to pound the coast last night. Winds greater than 64 knots, or 118km/h, are classified as hurricane-force - a new category introduced by the Bureau of Meteorology for areas on southern latitudes. It describes more extreme winds than storm winds, which is the warning given for winds greater than 48 knots or 88km/h. Hurricane-force winds are usually associated with tropical cyclones. A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said it was a "rare and unusual" event but the phenomenon was not a cyclone or hurricane in the Southern Ocean. "The low is well to the south of us and the winds won't impact the SA coastline but it will produce heavy swell along the open ocean coasts. We are predicting the swell to get to 5-7m." The swell was expected to peak late last night and, while some big waves could hit the coasts this morning, they will reduce during the day.

3/28/07 -
Cyclone BECKY was 1047 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

THAILAND - The Meteorological Department warned of a tropical storm during the next two days due to the high pressure from China. High pressure from China will cover Thailand, while the country is facing the low pressure. The weather conditions will result in tropical storm. As a result, they are warning local residents to stay vigilant of the tropical storm expected to affect agricultural areas.

3/27/07 -
Cyclone BECKY was 1093 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
Cyclone KARA was 101 nmi NNW of Port Hedland, Australia.

Cyclone Becky - A tropical cyclone that has formed northwest of Vanuatu is now expected to affect land areas as early as this afternoon. Cyclone Becky is moving East-Southeast, bringing gale force winds to the Banks group and extending over Sanma and Penama tonight. Winds are estimated to increase to 55 knots. The sea will be rough with heavy swells. “People including sea going vessels are strongly advised not to go out to sea until the system moves out of the area. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding is expected in the affected areas.”

Cyclone Kara - Oil and gas operations and iron ore ports are being shut as the West Australia coast braces for its fourth tropical cyclone this year. A severe cyclone warning is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Wallal, and Pilbara communities are being warned to take precautions.

3/26/07 -
Cyclone KARA was 241 nmi NW of Port Hedland, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Communities in the Pilbara region of Western Australia have been warned to take precautions as tropical cyclone Kara, which has grown to a category three storm, bears down on the coast. The Bureau of Meteorology said the erratic cyclone was hard to track but was expected to weaken as it approached the Pilbara coast. The cyclone, which intensified significantly overnight, was tracking south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast at 8km/h. "Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, capable of intensifying and weakening quite rapidly. It may intensify further today but is likely to weaken prior to coastal impact." The warning comes less than three weeks after category four cyclone George killed three people and caused widespread flooding and wind damage as it swept across the Pilbara.

3/25/07 -
None.

FIJI - The chances of a cyclone developing from the tropical depression to the north-west of Fiji have lessened, but heavy rain and flash flooding can still be expected, officals said Friday. The tropical depression was about 480km north-west of Nadi and is slow moving. The Weather Office feared it would develop into a cyclone Friday morning but a change in conditions reduced the possibility when the weather system ran into strong vertical wind shear. However, it would still be closely monitored, and heavy rain was likely to continue for two days.

AUSTRALIA - The Bureau of Meteorology says a tropical cyclone may cross the central Pilbara coast in Western Australia, some time overnight or tomorrow morning. At last report, a tropical low was about 465 kilometres west-north-west of Broome and moving away from the coast. However the bureau expects the system may develop into a cyclone and curve back towards the coast. Gales are not expected today but could develop later tomorrow.

RUSSIA - A new cyclone has arrived at Russia's Pacific coast, where its first appearance pounded the Primorksy Maritime territory with cold showers, pouring 10 to 15 meters per second. On Saturday the cyclone was approaching strongly at the Khabarovsk territory, which stretches to the north of Primorsky. Weather forecasters says it will reach its peak when it drifts across the Sea of Japan and comes to the island of Sakhalin. Gales at 20 meters per second will likely grip Sakhalin's northern districts today. The cyclone will then shift to the Sea of Okhotsk and embrace the Kurile Islands and Kamchatka. Fleet forecasters say, however, this natural phenomenon will not be very harsh and no warnings have been issued to ships on high seas so far. At this moment, the cyclone is moving along the Pacific coastline at about 25 kilometers per hour.

3/23/07 -
None.

FIJI - The weather office is keeping a close eye on a tropical depression about 400km north west of Fiji that is expected to develop into a cyclone later today. The weather office said it was likely the depression could be declared a cyclone in the next few hours, with the full force of it to be felt tonight and tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected. The winds could be damaging if the cyclone develops.

MADAGASCAR - A total of 69 people were killed and more than 77,000 left homeless after a cyclone struck northern Madagascar last week, authorities said in a sharp upward revision of the toll. New figures showed that 33 people were killed in the town of Port-Berge, in addition to the 36 dead elsewhere. 17 bridges and 40 public buildings have been damaged, and 8000 hectares (20,000 acres) of ricefields destroyed. Cyclone Indlaha is by far the deadliest of the six to have hit Madagascar so far this season.

3/22/07 -
None.

LOUISIANA - Decades of mistakes — some as basic as knowing the elevation of New Orleans — led the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to believe its levees and floodwalls would protect the city from a storm as strong as Hurricane Katrina, a report released yesterday concludes. The report said the errors date to the original plans in 1965, which relied on land height measurements from 1929. Because the city had sunk over the years, the plans called for levees that were 1 to 2 feet too low. "This mistake was locked in" for continuing construction by a policy adopted in 1985, even though scientists knew how fast New Orleans was sinking, the report said. By the time Katrina hit, the levees were as much as 5 feet too low. The report also said the corps never used a storm surge model released in 1979 by the National Hurricane Center. "If they had, they would have realized that their levee system wasn't high enough for a Category 3 storm at all." Additionally, the corps ignored its own models that suggested that the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a navigation channel completed in the early 1960s, would funnel storm surge into St. Bernard Parish and New Orleans. The corps also should have known two canals would fail when water levels reached 10 feet. "A back-of-the-envelope calculation" would have alerted engineers to a problem with one of the canals, and a soil strength analysis available since the 1950s would have highlighted flaws in the other. Almost all the problems could have been avoided if independent engineers had reviewed the corps' plans before construction started. Before Katrina struck, the team leader said he and his students had found sagging levees. "My students had tried to get assessments from the corps. The statements were, 'These were federal levees built to federal standards and they're not going to fail.'"

3/21/07 -
None.

AUSTRALIA - The Queensland Government has spent an estimated $280 million on the Cyclone Larry recovery effort – and the work continues. Tuesday marked one year since Cyclone Larry hit, with 290 kph winds destroying buildings, flattening crops and destroying livelihoods.

MADAGASCAR - Cyclone Indlala and the following rainstorm that swept northeast Madagascar last week have killed at least 21 people. Local newspapers said 36 were killed and 12 others were missing in the disaster which hit northeast parts of the Indian Ocean Island country from March 14 to 16. The Indian Ocean island country of Madagascar has already seen seven cyclones in the current cyclone season, which normally lasts from November to March, inflicting heavy losses to the poor country with a population of some 19 million.

Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity will be 75% higher than usual this year according to Tropical Storm Risk. This is an increase from the 60% forecast issued last December. TSR’s March FORECAST IS THE HIGHEST SINCE THEIR RECORDS BEGAN 23 YEARS AGO. The main predictions include an 86% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season; 17 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole (with nine of these being hurricanes and four being intense hurricanes); an 85% probability of above-normal US landfalling hurricane activity; five tropical storm strikes on the U.S.; two tropical storm strikes on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.

3/20/07 -
None.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / WIND -
3/20/07 -
AFGHANISTAN - At least 17 people have been killed in an avalanche and floods triggered by heavy rain and several villages were inundated. Twelve people were killed in the avalanche in the central province of Ghor. Five people died in flash floods in the western province of Badghis. Floods also hit several villages in Uruzgan province and NATO-led troops had launched rescue operations. Aircraft had been deployed to evacuate about 1,000 people in the province as the Helmand river, which runs through Uruzgan, was rising. The rains had also damaged or destroyed several mud houses in the rugged and remote province. Many parts of drought-stricken Afghanistan have received heavy rain in recent days.

CANARY ISLANDS - FREAK heavy rains and snowfall on Monday hit Tenerife, where mountain areas were blanketed in snow. Floods blocked roads, and inundated basements especially in the north of the island. Five other regions were also on alert for snowfall and strong winds in northern and central Spain. High winds have lashed most of the country.

3/19/07 -
None.

3/18/07 -
None.

MADAGASCAR - Rain- and wind-battered Madagascar off the east coast of Africa was on Friday weathering its fourth heavy cyclone in recent months. Intense Cyclone Indlala hit land in the tropical island on Thursday and continued to rage over the island's vanilla plantations on Friday. By about 4pm on Friday afternoon, it was dissipating but still packed winds of about 100km/h. Antalaha, the centre of vanilla production and already hard-hit by earlier devastating cyclones, has lost an estimated 90% of its crops. The country had already lost most of its rice harvest. The cyclone, which arrived with winds of more than 200km/h, also caused damage to police buildings and those of the aid agency Care International in Antalaha. Three cyclones in recent weeks have left approximately 45,000 people displaced.
Two people were killed and thousands left homeless when the cyclone smashed the northern coast of Madagascar. The deaths occurred in the village of Antalaha.

3/16/07 -
Cyclone INDLALA was 503 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Another intense tropical cyclone, Indlala, landed yesterday on the island's east coast and has already flooded large areas. Since December 2006, cyclones accompanied by heavy rainfall tore through several regions in Madagascar destroying large, populated and cultivated areas throughout the country. The Government estimates that 293,000 people have been affected by the floods. More than 150,000 farming families have lost a total of 90,000 hectares of land, leaving them destitute. So far, six cyclones have hit Madagascar, the worst of which were Bondo and Clovis in January. The cyclone season typically lasts until mid April.

3/15/07 -
Cyclone INDLALA was 478 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

3/14/07 -
Cyclone INDLALA was 445 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MADAGASCAR - Fourth tropical cyclone in four months is nearing the coast - Tropical cyclone 'Indlala' is projected to hit Madagascar on Thursday, but with the island still picking itself up after a string of natural disasters, government and relief agencies are already overstretched. Erratic weather patterns have seen large areas of the northwest, west and southeast of the island flooded by torrential rains, while harvests in the south have been devastated by drought. "WORLD RECORDS OF PRECIPITATION have been beaten" by Cyclone Gamede, which brought the HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN 27 YEARS. Indlala is just off the island's northeastern coast, but its predicted course will most likely take it down along the eastern coast past the country's second city, Toamasina. At the end of February, cyclone Gamede was also predicted to hit Toamasina but then it deviated south.

3/13/07 -
Cyclone FORMATION was 431 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone INDLADA was 420 nmi N of Port Louis, Mauritius.

3/12/07 -
Cyclone INDLALA was 401 nmi N of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone JACOB was 54 nmi ESE of Port Hedland, Australia.

CYCLONE Jacob crossed Western Australia's north coast early this morning but was expected to quickly weaken below cyclone intensity. The category one cyclone crossed the coast between Whim Creek and Port Hedland, bringing heavy rain and winds gusting up to 100 km/h. Jacob was proving to be quite a "fizzer" compared to George.

3/11/07 -
Cyclone JACOB was 466 nmi WSW of Broome, Australia.

Residents on Australia's northwest coast prepared Saturday for another cyclone to hit, less than 72 hours after a storm swept through a remote mining construction camp, killing three people. Forecasters said the latest cyclone, dubbed Jacob, could make landfall west of the town of Port Hedland late today with winds of more than 280 km/h. Forecasters rated George as Category 4, the second-worst on a scale of one to five. The winds were so strong that police and emergency workers said they remained inside despite calls for help for local residents. And Jacob could turn out to be a Category 5 storm. Emergency crews were scrambling to clear debris that could be sent flying when the storm hits.

3/9/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 83 nmi S of Port Hedland, Australia and 303 nmi SW of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone JACOB was 869 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

Cyclone George - At least three people are feared dead and up to 20 injured, after the powerful cyclone hit north-west Australia. George packed winds of up to 280km/h (170 mph), damaging homes and disrupting power in the remote town of Port Hedland. The cyclone is the WORST STORM TO HIT THE REGION SINCE 1999 when Cyclone Vance hit the area. Forecasters said it may have been a maximum level five storm as it crossed the coast, hitting a mine construction camp. The storm also tore off roofs, felled trees and cut power lines to at least three towns in the area.

Cyclone Jacob has done an about face on its trek towards Christmas Island and is now advancing towards the storm-battered West Australian coast. Category two Jacob could cross the Pilbara coast on Sunday or Monday in the same region that was battered when category four Cyclone George slammed into the state. Jacob was on a path for Christmas Island, near Indonesia, yesterday before it turned towards the Australian mainland. Cyclone George was still causing widespread flooding in the Pilbara as it headed for the mining town of Newman. The tropical cyclone was still a category three storm despite travelling over land for about 12 hours. The cyclone was taking a long time to weaken because it was travelling over relatively flat land and had been such a powerful storm when it crossed the coast.

3/8/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 170 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone JACOB was 953 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

Category-three Cyclone George is around 350km north of Port Headland and 455km north-east of Karratha, Australia, and moving south at 19km/h. George may reach category four, with "very destructive" wind gusts up to 235km/h developing along the central Pilbara coast tonight or tomorrow morning as the cyclone approaches. Tropical Cyclone George shut down about half of Australia's crude oil production and disrupted exports of iron ore. Woodside Petroleum and BHP Billiton have halted activities at respective production facilities as tropical cyclone George moves closer to the West Australian coast. George is the second tropical cyclone to hit the WA coast after Isobel disrupted a number of oil, gas and inland mining operations in January.

Cyclone Jacob - A tropical cyclone warning has been issued for Christmas Island, north-west of Perth. Jacob has been upgraded to a Category three cyclone, with winds up to 195km/h near its centre. Gales with gusts up to 90km/h might develop on Christmas Island later today but the core of the cyclone was still expected to stay south of the island. Heavy rain is likely, which may result in flooding, and a heavy north-west swell is likely to affect the island.

3/7/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 237 nmi NW of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone JACOB was 890 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

3/6/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 200 nmi N of Broome, Australia.

Cyclone warnings have been cancelled in the Kimberley as tropical cyclone George moves away from West Australia's northern coast. Category two George is the first tropical cyclone of the WA season and the Bureau of Meteorology believes it will develop into a severe cyclone over the coming days. Communities in the Pilbara have been advised to monitor cyclone bulletins. "There is still the potential that tropical cyclone George will move closer to the Pilbara coastline as a severe cyclone during the week."

INDONESIA - A typhoon that hit the towns of Mayangan and Kademangan in Indonesia killed two people Monday and caused damage to multiple buildings. The storm caused 10 minutes of wind and heavy rain that caused heavy property damage. The typhoon blew the roofs off of many houses, uprooted several trees and caused various other forms of damage to buildings. The number of injured had not yet been determined.

3/5/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 282 nmi NE of Broome, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone George is heading for Western Australia after battering most of Australia's Northern Territory. The cyclone caused widespread flooding and cut off access to major roads, leaving hundreds stranded. The storm has been upgraded to a category one cyclone and meteorologists expect George to gain momentum as it travels westward. The amount of rain dumped on the Northern Territory over the last week SMASHED RECORDS and flooded townships especially Adelaide. River levels dropped in Adelaide, but a high tide caused water to flood back into the town. The cyclone also caused damage to local railway lines, with a section of the Adelaide to Darwin railway line washed away.
"This is the first time the track has been closed ... It's a VERY UNUSUAL weather system ... The track has been designed for 100-year flood events based on historical data in the territory."

Tropical Cyclone Odette has been downgraded to a low pressure system and is unlikely to threaten the Queensland Coast, the Australian bureau of meteorology says. The bureau downgraded the cyclone, dashing hopes the storm would bring a much needed deluge to Queensland's rain-starved south east corner. Conditions never allowed Odette to develop strength. The pressure system continues to hover about 850km northeast of Mackay and is not expected to move much over the next few days. The likelihood of the cyclone redeveloping is low and the system will not bring any rain to Queensland. However, it would continue to bring ocean swells to beaches in central and southern Queensland over the next couple of days.

3/4/07 -
Cyclone GEORGE was 424 nmi ENE of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Residents at the top end of Western Australia have been warned to brace for destructive winds as category one Cyclone George moves west into the state. The bureau has also warned abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding.
A cyclone watch over coastal and island communities in central Queensland has been cancelled after Tropical Cyclone Odette remained almost stationary in the Coral Sea. A lot of uncertainty remains over the future movement of Cyclone Odette. “Our computer models are suggesting a number of different possible scenarios. The most likely result, however, is an increase in winds, showers and swells along much of the Queensland coast by the middle of next week.”

3/2/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 819 nmi SSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre says a cyclone threat off far north Queensland has eased but is now on track to affect the state's central coast. A tropical low about 550 kilometres east of Innisfail intensified overnight. It is expected to become a cyclone within 24 hours. There are currently gales and heavy rain on the low's eastern side.

3/1/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 537 nmi SW of Port Louis, Mauritius.

--------------------------------
2/28/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 272 nmi WSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.

REUNION - Authorities in the Indian Ocean island of Reunion increased their weather alert to the maximum level of red on Tuesday as an offshore cyclone changed direction and headed for the coast. Cyclone Gamede continued its course towards the west coast and heavy rain poured down, flooding rivers and waterways. A woman was missing after being swept away by fast-flowing waters in a ravine in the island’s south and rescue services said chances of finding her alive were slim. Heavy storms over recent days caused rivers across the island to swell their banks and cut off roads in several areas, although the cyclone had appeared to be moving away from the island before changing direction overnight. Winds of up to 150 kph in coastal areas and 200 kph on hilltops are expected as cyclone Gamede approaches to some 200 kilometres (124 miles) of the coast.

ZIMBABWE - Strong winds brought by Cyclone Favio have left swathes of Zimbabwe's eastern Manicaland province without power. Up to 400 electricity poles were brought down by the cyclone. Favio swept into eastern Zimbabwe from Mozambique on Thursday evening bringing heavy rains which only ceased on Tuesday morning. An official from Zimbabwe's state-run electricity company warned that worse was to come.

AUSTRALIA - A cyclone forming off Queensland is threatening to cause some serious damage between the Whitsundays and Fraser Island. The cyclone is expected to form overnight before developing into a severe system. A low pressure system was today 650km northeast of Mackay and was expected to form into tropical cyclone Odette overnight. It was then expected to form into a severe cyclone - category three or above - by the weekend. "Track prediction is always difficult with cyclones but at this stage it's expected to head towards the Whitsunday coast then head down south to the Fraser coast eventually, so it could cause quite a few problems as it does so. It should be a big system too, compared to other events we've had recently." Strong winds, big swells and flooding of low-lying coastal areas is expected and residents are being told to prepare.

2/27/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 254 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone HUMBA was 1196 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low off the Queensland coast could develop into a cyclone as early as tomorrow. The low, in the Coral Sea about 1000km off Cape York, was moving slowly towards the Queensland coast while deepening. "The ocean temperature is very warm, around 30 degrees, in this region, which provides the fuel for cyclones to develop." But the cyclone, to be named Odette, was not likely to reach the coast and instead is expected to continue southwest for the next day or two before curving southeast and away from the coast. It is unlikely to bring rain or gales to Queensland, but beachgoers could expect large swells across southeast Queensland by the weekend.

2/26/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 189 nmi NNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion and 192 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclon HUMBA was 1171 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Cyclone Gamede - One person was killed on Mauritius and nine hurt in the French Indian Ocean department of Reunion when the tropical cyclone brushed the island at the weekend. The victims had ignored official bans on going out while Cyclone Gamede was in the vicinity. On Mauritius, a man of 22 was swept away by high waves on Saturday about 10km south of the capital, Port Louis. In the south of Reunion, a 520m-long bridge was swept away and about 100,000 people were deprived of electricity. The collapse of the bridge over the Saint Etienne river is a disaster that will cause serious disruption to the local economy. Torrential rain and wind reaching a RECORD 205km/h has also caused heavy damage to crops, especially sugar cane and bananas. Mozambican authorities were keeping an eye on the cyclone to see whether it would follow the same route as Cyclone Favio, which killed at least 10 people along the Mozambican coast this week.

Insurance companies have been retreating from their coverage of coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S., leaving homeowners with fewer and fewer options. Allstate Corp., State Farm Insurance Cos. and Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. - three of the largest insurers in Maryland - have moved to limit their liability along the Atlantic Coast and in some cases near the Chesapeake Bay, areas feared to be at heightened risk from hurricanes. Similar changes have been made in other coastal areas; State Farm recently decided to stop selling new policies on homes and small businesses in all of Mississippi. Companies are not only refusing new policies in coastal areas; they are raising rates, imposing higher deductibles and dropping coverage for certain claims, such as mold damage. The changes by insurance companies follow devastating coastal storms in recent years, and an explosion of waterfront development such as expensive homes and condos. Also, some forecasters are making cataclysmic predictions of a hurricane costing $100 billion in insured losses, or twice as much as Hurricane Katrina, which pounded the Gulf Coast two years ago. Risk modelers, who forecast natural disasters for the insurance industry, have changed their methods to take into account the higher sea temperatures that fuel storms. Legislators are displeased and said, "We have to send the message you just can't pick and choose based on some prediction of what may happen in the future. If things were 100 percent guaranteed, you wouldn't need insurance." Insurance companies say they could be on the hook for potentially huge payouts on natural disasters. Homeowner insurance can be an unprofitable business - insurers paid out $10.4 billion more than they earned in Florida over the past 15 years.

2/25/07 -
Cyclone GAMEDE was 172 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone HUMBA was 1273 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MOZAMBIQUE - Cyclone Favio flattened most of the worst-hit town, Vilankulo in coastal Inhambane province. It left at least 10 people dead and 70 injured in the east of the country.

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (June through November) - El Nino is disappearing, and La Nina might be about to poke her head up. The upshot is that this year's Atlantic hurricane season could be very busy. El Nino is a warming trend in Pacific tropical waters that creates high altitude winds that shear hurricanes in this hemisphere. The surprise appearance of an El Nino last year is credited with cutting off a storm season predicted to be bad. La Nina is a cooling trend that weakens or turns around those shearing winds. The busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons have tended to be La Nina years. On top of that, Atlantic tropical sea-surface temperatures continue to be warmer than the average - another big factor in hurricane formation - and African rainfall patterns are suggesting a busy year. Hurricanes form from monsoon storms spinning off the western African coast.

2/23/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 1231 nmi W of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GAMEDE was 435 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone 16S was 1640 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Cyclone Favio lashed central Mozambique on Thursday with heavy rains and sustained winds of 200 kilometres an hour, raising fears of further flooding after tens of thousands of people were already forced from their homes. Forecasters say the storm, which has brought gusts of up to 230 km/h, weakened slightly as it made landfall, but was still expected to wreak havoc in the region over the next 12 hours. A second storm, Cyclone Gamede, is churning in the Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar and threatens to make landfall in the same area of central Mozambique before dawn today. (photo)
Favio killed four people and injured at least 70 in Mozambique's resort town of Vilanculos, where thousands of homes were destroyed along with the hospital and power grid. "There are no words to describe the drama, I haven't seen such a thing in my life."
ZIMBABWE - Heavy rains and strong winds are expected in Manicaland and the low lying areas later today as Tropical Cyclone Favio now hitting Mozambique moves closer to Zimbabwe. There are fears that strong winds rated at 50km/hr could damage buildings, devastate vegetation and cause flooding in low lying areas. "We are expecting most of our dams' levels to increase in Save, Mazowe, Manyame and Sanyati catchments. For those dams that are nearly full we expect them to spill, especially in the eastern, northern and central parts of the country." High flows were also expected in most major rivers and their tributaries. A fierce storm recently swept across the Domboshawa area and destroyed more than 20 houses, uprooted trees and injured five people.
SOUTH AFRICA - The tropical cyclone which is causing major floods in Mozambique is also behind the sweltering heat wave in South Africa. The rotating cyclone is sucking in moist air, leaving SA with a high-pressure system, and therefore hot and dry conditions. Many parts of SA had been “moderately to severely dry” in January. The drought has also affected dam levels which have been dropping since December and notably in the last week or so.

2/22/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 1174 nmi WSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GAMEDE was 586 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone 16S was 1712 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MOZAMBIQUE - powerful tropical cyclone Favio, with winds of up to 230 km per hour (144 mph), surged ashore in southern Mozambique this morning, uprooting trees, knocking over electric pylons and raising fears of new floods. Cyclone Favio is the STRONGEST TO HIT the southern African country. It's magnitude is stronger than that of the Cyclone Eline in 2000, the previous worst to hit Mozambique. Favio is heading towards the Zambezi River valley where it is likely to worsen floods which have already killed some 40 people and driven 120,000 from their homes. Now rated a category four storm, Cyclone Favio hit the tourist town of Vilanculos early today, destroying a number of houses built of flimsy material. Mozambique's cyclone early warning system said a storm of Favio's magnitude could bring widespread destruction of homes, buildings and industrial structures including power grids, as well as crops and trees. Officials said the problems could multiply in the coming days as Favio dumps its rains in Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe, further swelling tributaries which feed the already-flooded Zambezi.

2/21/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 875 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MOZAMBIQUE - Disaster officials and aid agencies are closely monitoring tropical cyclone Favio as it crosses the narrow sea channel from Madagascar. It is due to make landfall in flood-drenched Mozambique on Thursday. A major storm hitting Mozambique's central provinces, where more than 120,000 people have already been displaced, could seriously hurt ongoing relief efforts. The exact trajectory of Favio is still uncertain. It could make landfall further south, in Inhambane province, where rains would be welcome to alleviate near drought conditions. It could also strengthen. The impact of Favio has already been felt in Madagascar where it scrapped the southern tip of the Indian Ocean island, disrupting relief operations which were trying to reach 582,000 people struggling to cope with the aftermath of a drought in the south, and flooding that has left at least three dead and displaced 33,000 throughout the country. The storm caused heavy rains that reduced road access to the southeastern parts of the island. Flooding has disrupted agriculture, with ramifications for already precarious food security. The southeastern Vatovavy Fitovinany region has lost 70 pecent to 87 percent of its rice paddies. There is "high potential" for outbreaks of water-borne disease in the capital, Antanananarivo.

2/20/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 698 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Nearly 25,000 people are in need of humanitarian aid after a series of floods in Madagascar, while another tropical storm (Favio) threatens the island's southwest region. Rising flood waters have covered houses, cut off main roads, and destroyed an estimated 200,000 tonnes of rice on the world's fourth-largest island. So far this cyclone season - which usually lasts between November and March - six cyclones have hit Madadgascar, the worst of which were Bondo and Clovis in January.

2/19/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 641 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Tropical cyclone Favio was forecast to strike Madagascar this morning at category 1.

2/18/07 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 392 nmi SW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

2/16 -
Cyclone FAVIO was 203 nmi ESE of Plaisance, Mauritius.

2/15 -
Cyclone 14S was 515 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

2/14 -
None.

2/13/07 -
None.

2/12/07 -
None.

2/9 -
Cyclone 13S was 347 nmi NW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone DORA was 467 nmi SE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - North Queenslanders are breathing a collective sigh of relief after Cyclone Nelson passed the region with minimal impact. Nelson crossed north Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria coast near Gilbert River Mouth early on Wednesday as a category two cyclone. However, it was downgraded to a tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon and has now almost completely dissipated. Nelson's sister storm, which was threatening to develop into a cyclone off the coast of Cairns, has also failed to gain power, and is moving slowly south-east towards New Zealand. The storm is currently still causing windy conditions on the coast between Cairns and Mackay, but there was very little rain overnight.

2/8 -
Cyclone DORA was 402 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - Weather forecasters were last night tracking what they described as a RARE WEATHER PHENOMENON off the North Queensland coast. Ex-Cyclone Nelson was expected to move into the Coral Sea, while another low lingered menacingly off Innisfail. Conditions were 'favourable' for either low to develop into a cyclone during the next 12 to 18 hours. "This is a complicated situation at the moment with two significant systems in the same area. It's a VERY RARE situation that's not seen often. There will be a seesaw effect between the two as they try to outrun each other. Things change hourly at present and we'll have to wait and see how it develops further. It's QUITE UNUSUAL for the weather guys in Brisbane and I don't envy them." Yesterday Townsville had a taste of what is yet to come after strong winds blew trees onto houses and brought down powerlines.

2/7 -
Cyclone DORA was 362 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone NELSON was 314 nmi W of Cairns, Australia.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NELSON was downgraded to a category one storm after losing intensity as it crossed the Cape York Peninsula in far north Queensland. North Queensland communities felt the brunt of Nelson's pounding 140km/h winds and flooding rains when it crossed the Gulf of Carpentaria early this morning. Five crew members onboard a vessel swamped by Cyclone Nelson's rough seas have been rescued off the Gulf of Carpentaria. Meteorologists expect Nelson to pick up again tomorrow when the storm moves into the Coral Sea. Meanwhile, a sister storm off the coast of Cairns is picking up speed and could go into cyclone mode either tonight or tomorrow. The potential cyclone would move southeast towards New Zealand but it was already producing very strong winds which would affect the east coast of Queensland between Cairns and Townsville. The two storms are expected to cause further flooding today between Mackay and Cairns, which have been struggling with monsoonal floods since the weekend. Innisfail and Tully were still flooded, while Burketown, below the Gulf of Carpentaria, was isolated by flood waters.

CHINA - Recent findings "strongly suggest that China has experienced DECREASING tropical cyclone influence over the past 48 years." The authors saw that "two recent studies argued that tropical cyclone intensity has increased markedly in recent decades," and "that topical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific has been changed in response to the ongoing global warming," so they decided to see if any related increases in tropical cyclone activity have occurred over China. Interestingly, the Chinese researchers report that "significant DOWNWARD trends are found in the Tropical Cyclone Precipitation volume, the annual frequency of torrential TCP events, and the contribution of TCP to the annual precipitation over the past 48 years." In addition, they say that the downward trends were accompanied by "decreases in the numbers of tropical cyclones and typhoons that affected China during the period 1957-2004."

2/6 -
Cyclone DORA was 445 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - A category one cyclone called Nelson is on the move in the Gulf of Carpentaria. A cyclone warning has been issued for coastal and island communities from the Northern Territory-Queensland border east to Kowanyama. Huge areas of north Queensland remained waterlogged - and now that the category 1 cyclone formed this morning, things could get worse. The Weather Bureau issued a top priority cyclone warning for north Queensland. At 7am, Tropical Cyclone Nelson, with central pressure 992 hectopascals, was centred 95km north of Mornington Island and 270km northwest of Karumba. The cyclone was expected to cross the coast near low tide but the associated storm surge was expected to raise these tides close to the highest tide of the year. Innisfail was preparing for the worst yesterday with news that another cyclone could be developing off its coastline. The Bureau of Meteorology yesterday tracked two tropical low pressure systems – one off the coast of Innisfail and the other off the coast of Port McArthur in the Northern Territory. People were nervous about the prospect of having to live through another cyclone after being devastated when Cyclone Larry struck Innisfail in March last year.

2/5 -
Cyclone DORA was 517 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

2/4 -
Cyclone 11P was 1340 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone DORA was 542 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

2/2 -
Cyclone DORA was 583 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.

Communities in the far north of Australia are preparing for a cyclone which is predicted to hit the eastern coast of the Northern Territory this weekend. The Bureau of Meteorology is currently monitoring a tropical low in the Gulf, and a cyclone warning has been issued for communities in the area. The cyclone was still a tropical low centred on the Gulf of Carpentaria, about 340 kilometres east of Alyangula and 450 kilometres northeast of Borroloola, at 12.30pm today. It was moving south-southwest at 18 kilometres per hour. The low was forecast to move southwest during today and tonight. "The low may develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning, and is expected to move closer to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Saturday. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop on Groote Eylandt early on Saturday morning. " Abnormally high tides are expected to cause minor flooding at the coast between Port Roper and Karumba tonight and Saturday. Heavy rain is also expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End and Roper-McArthur district.

2/1/07 -
Cyclone DORA was 548 nmi SW of Diego Garcia.

---------------------------------
1/31 -
Cyclone DORA was 535 nmi SW of Diego Garcia and 641 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - The weather bureau says reports of a cyclone forming in the Gulf and another off the east coast appear to be premature. Meteorologists say it is far too early to be talking about cyclones. "There's a bit of an indication that a low might develop in the Gulf in the next few days and the possibility of a low in the coral sea by the weekend, but at this stage the cyclone centre is saying that it is not expecting a cyclone in the next three days." There is a low near Flinders Reef off the coast of Cairns and another low west of the city. It is likely more lows will develop. "At the moment there's no coastal threat to areas and we're monitoring the whole coastline very closely."

GUATEMALA - within the last two months, nearly 100 victims of a 2005 landslide from Hurricane Stan's rains have been unearthed. Rains triggered by Hurricane Stan inundated Guatemala in October 2005, killing at least 800 people in the poor Central American nation. The worst hit area was around the small, lakeside town of Panabaj, which was buried by a landslide leaving at least 250 dead. At the time, Guatemalan authorities made a weeklong effort to find any survivors and bodies that could be reached with picks and shovels. But the enormous, still unstable mudslide was dangerous and difficult to search without heavy machinery that could have mangled buried bodies. The disaster area was nearly the size of six football fields. Many victims were found perfectly conserved, their bodies still wrapped in the sheets they were sleeping in at the time of the early morning landslide. Hundreds of survivors lost their homes, and many are still living in makeshift shacks. The Guatemalan government had begun to build 90 concrete homes, but abandoned the project after state officials determined the houses were in an area that was at risk of another landslide. Some survivors have ignored the warnings that the area is unstable, moving into the half-built concrete homes because they are tired of living in crowded, temporary shelters.

1/30 -
Cyclone 10S was 437 nmi SW of Diego Garcia.

1/29 -
Cyclone 10S was 437 nmi SW of Diego Garcia and 740 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

1/28 -
None.

1/26 -
Cyclone ARTHUR was 1944 nmi ENE of Hamilton, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Arthur is threatening several islands in the Pacific. The cyclone is currently around 600 kilometres from Cook Island's main island of Rarotonga, with wind speeds of up to 41 kilometres an hour. A warning is now in force for southern areas of the Cook Islands. It has triggered an alert in French Polynesia, especially for the Austral group of islands in the south. But the United States Army's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre predicts Arthur is expected to significantly weaken over the next 36 hours as it travels over colder waters. Last week, torrential rains in parts of French Polynesia caused numerous landslides, damaging houses on the main island of Tahiti and neighbouring Moorea.

1/25 -
Cyclone ARTHUR was 1825 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical cyclone Arthur is expected to intensify in the southern islands in the Cook Islands. Cyclone Arthur is around five hundred kilometres from the main island Rarotonga and moving east south east at 22 knots. Damaging gale force winds are expected to hit Aitutaki Mauke and other smaller islands over the next 24 hours with winds of up to 100 kilometres an hour forecast for the southern Cooks. On its current track, it is expected to affect the Cook Islands for up to two and a half days.

1/24 -
Cyclone ZITA was 2014 nmi ENE of Hamilton, New Zealand.

1/23 -
Cyclone 08P was 2040 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.

1/22 -
None.

1/21 -
None.

1/19 -
None.

1/18 -
None.

1/17 -
None.

1/16 -
None.

The ocean right now is about as warm as it is in April, even hitting 50 degrees off Cape May, New Jersey on Sunday. The average water temperature in January is 37 degrees. On New Year's Day, the water temperature at a buoy 26 miles southeast of Cape May BROKE A RECORD FOR JANUARY. The temperature reached 52 degrees there, besting the previous record of 50 set in 2002 and 1991 "That's crazy because the ocean is . . . very tough to chill and to warm at times, unlike the atmosphere." Sea surface temperatures are "running high just about everywhere on the East Coast" and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I can't remember it being like this, in all the years I've been studying this" - since the late 1970s. "We've never seen this before." If it persists, it could lead to a very active hurricane season. The warmer ocean has also "made the fish stay around . . . a hell of a lot longer" than normal. Normally in winter, ocean water is mixed from top to bottom, but that's not the case this year. The water is stratified. Stratification is when water masses are separated into layers. It keeps layers from mixing and hinders the movement of dissolved gases and chemicals from one layer to another. Divers recently have noticed that there seems to be a little less marine life at the bottom than normal. And the marine life being found, including fish and lobsters, is significantly younger and smaller than usual. Bottom waters are "still murky," with visibility of 10 to 20 feet. "In many cases this time of year, you expect the water clarity to clear up." Beginning in November, bottom water temperatures have seemed to be a little above normal. They now are generally 42 to 44 degrees, up from the norm of 38 to 41.

The British group Tropical Storm Risk, one of the most accurate forecasters, predicts this year will see 15 named storms, eight of them hurricanes, of which four will be Category 3 or stronger. The William Gray team at Colorado State University expects 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes, three intense. That would be significantly higher than last year, when for just the 11th time since 1945 no hurricanes struck the United States. Last year's total storm damage of $490 million was a fraction of the $134 billion in 2005 and $40 billion in 2004. Forecasters insist 2006 was a freak year and that the Atlantic remains in a decades-long period when it is ripe for spawning hurricanes.

1/15 -
None.

1/14 -
None.

1/12 -
None.

1/11 -
None.

PHILIPPINES - a tropical cyclone will likely enter the Philippine area of responsibility this month despite the presence of the El Nino weather phenomenon. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration says that the adverse impacts of El Nino have been temporarily alleviated by the interaction of oceanic and atmospheric systems in the Pacific which favor the formation of rain-inducing clouds. This, in turn, has influenced the weather systems that affect the country this month. The country will be experiencing northeast monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, inter-tropical convergence zone and the easterly wave this month, the advisory noted. The presence of these weather systems will trigger the formation of a tropical cyclone. Despite the presence of these weather systems since late last year, the air temperatures during December 2006 were observed to be slightly warmer than normal in most parts of the country. Most parts of the country, including the whole of Visayas and most of Mindanao and the Central and Southern Luzon regions, will be experiencing below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall during the first half of this year, based on PAGASA’s forecast. The rest of Luzon and Southern Mindanao, however, will be experiencing normal rainfall during this same period.

1/10 -
None.

A decision about the future of the Air Force facility on Wake Island, devastated last August by Super Typhoon Ioke, is expected later this month. Wake has served for decades as a stopover and refueling site for military and commercial aircraft transiting the Pacific. Ioke, a Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone, passed just north of Wake overnight Aug. 30 and into the morning of Aug. 31, packing sustained 161-mph winds and 198-mph gusts. Weather sensors on the island detected wind gusts of nearly 100 mph before they were knocked out. Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisories warned of maximum wave height of 50 feet; Wake’s highest point is 20 feet. It was feared the island group would be totally submerged by Ioke. 70 percent of the island’s buildings sustained moderate to severe damage and the power grid and water works were completely destroyed.

1/9 - 1/5
None.

1/5 -
AUSTRALIA - A major storm brought high winds and heavy rain to the south coast of Western Australia on Thursday after remnants of tropical cyclone Isobel combined with a strong front to create extreme weather. It is believed to be THE WORST STORM TO HIT WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN 30 YEARS. Isobel on Wednesday passed over the northwest of Australia while a strong front crossed over the southwest. The two linked together to form a deep low pressure system off the coast. Residents in the town of Esperance on Western Australia's southern coast were coping with wind gusts of more than 110 kilometres per hour and the town itself received 149 millimetres of rain on Thursday. Parts of the town, 720 kilometres southeast of Perth, were submerged. "There's extensive flooding everywhere and the waterlogging of the area is just unbelievable — never seen here before." Esperance residents have been told that the worst is not yet over. The storm was expected to hover over Esperance and the surrounding area until early today. It was also expected to cause severe beach erosion along the south coast.

1/4 -
Cyclone CLOVIS was 403 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone ISOBEL was 214 nmi SE of Port Hedland, Australia.

Remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Isobel are lashing a wide area of Western Australia's south with heavy rain and damaging winds. Isobel hit land on Wednesday north-east of Port Hedland in the north of the state and quickly weakened into a tropical low. The system has combined with a surface trough in the south of the state to form a deep low pressure system that will bring damaging winds and unseasonably high rainfall to normally parched areas of the state.

1/3 -
Cyclone CLOVIS was 327 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone ISOBEL was 124 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ISOBEL has hit land in northern Western Australia with little strength and is expected to quickly weaken and be downgraded to a tropical low. "It's a weak category one system with an ill-defined centre and for that reason there are not strong squally winds around the centre." Isobel's remains would likely join with a deep trough over the eastern Goldfields area, creating a deep low pressure system. "The deep low is likely to cause widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and could result in significant damage or destruction of property."

1/2/07 -
Cyclone CLOVIS was 256 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

AUSTRALIA - Forecasters have warned a likely cyclone off WA's north coast could link up with a cold cell in the south to cause wild weather across the state. "We’ve got quite a cool change moving through. That in itself would create some unpleasant conditions but that tropical low to the north interacting with this system to the south has the potential to enhance those bad conditions.” The tropical low in the north was expected to become a midstrength cyclone. “This one doesn’t look as if it’s going to get to a category three.” But the potential super-cell is dependent on the traditionally unpredictable movements of a north-western tropical low.

1/1 -
Cyclone CLOVIS was 276 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

Tropical storm Clovis struck Tromelin Island near Madagascar, at about 18:00 GMT on December 31. Clovis brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.
Clovis is forecast to strike Madagascar as a category 2 tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT on January 2. Clovis is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 166 km/h (103 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher. (map)

AUSTRALIA - Residents in the State’s far north are bracing for the first cyclone of the season after a tropical low began forming off Indonesia yesterday. The low was expected to develop into a cyclone later today. Once formed it was expected to travel south about 15kmh before hitting WA by Wednesday. It is expected the cyclone will be called Isobel.

-----------------------------------
12/31 - 12/27 -
None.

Cyclone Bondo - Two people were killed when the cyclone hit the northern coast of Madagascar on Tuesday, before losing strength as it moved towards the south of the island. "For the moment, the risks are not too significant, but a new (tropical depression weather) system is forming in the north" of Madagascar.

12/26 -
Cyclone BONDO was 586 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

On Monday,Tropical Cyclone Bondo was picking up a bit of speed as its center heads southward towards northern Madagascar's coast. Winds were sustained at around 85 mph. Bondo is forecast to weaken and move a bit faster as it closes in onshore. The center of Bondo could make landfall by Wednesday, near the northwestern town of Mahajanga. The storm will bring heavy rain and gusty winds as it moves ashore, in many cases to areas which have already seen more than 5 inches of rain since Friday. There is another area of low pressure northeast of Madagascar which has the potential to develop into a tropical system in the next 24-48 hours.

12/22/06 -
Cyclone BONDO was 714 nmi NW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
BONO - Seychelles authorities evacuated 35 people from a remote atoll ahead of the RARE tropical cyclone due to strike there on Thursday. The move left just eight residents of Farquhar sheltering in a concrete bunker waiting for cyclone Bondo, which was expected to whip in with winds touching 190 kph (120 mph). "We expect major damage to the infrastructure there." Cyclones are EXTREMELY RARE in the 115-isle Seychelles archipelago because of its proximity to the equator.
12/21 -
Cyclone BONDO was 678 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
As of early Wednesday powerful Tropical Cyclone Bondo was located about 800 miles northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Maximum sustained winds were at 155 mph with gusts to near 200 mph. Bondo will continue on a track just south of west at around 14 mph. This track will bring the cyclone just north of the northern tip of Madagascar, which will experience deteriorating conditions over the next 24 hours. Fluctuations in intensity, due to changes in the eyewall of Bondo, are likely through today. Bondo has already brought over 11 inches of rain to the island of Agalega, and the north coast of Madagascar will similarly experience very strong winds, flooding rain and battering surf.
12/20 -
Cyclone BONDO was 570 nmi N of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical Storm Trami looked set to spare the typhoon-battered eastern Philippines and head toward southern Japan or dissipate over the open sea, forecasters said on Tuesday. The storm, with winds of 65 kilometers per hour (40 miles per hour) and gusts of up to 80 kph (50 mph), was 880 kilometers (550 miles) east of the northern Philippine island of Luzon but no longer posed a direct threat.
Looks like the 2006 Hurricane Season was slightly less dull than we all thought: Our quiet nine-storm hurricane season was really a quiet 10-storm season, the National Hurricane Center announced yesterday: "As part of its routine post-season review, the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone based on new data or meteorological interpretation. The reanalysis of 2006 has re-classified a short-lived system as a tropical storm. The storm remained offshore of the northeastern United States and Nova Scotia and dissipated as a tropical cyclone before moving across Newfoundland." This new bundle of tropical joy, known as "Unnamed Tropical Storm" and "AL022006," blipped into existence July 17 and bleeped out a day later. Its sustained winds peaked at a shade under 52 mph. The center added an unnamed subtropical storm to the 2005 season count in April, boosting that year's total to 28 storms.
12/19 -
Cyclone BONDO was 576 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical depression TRAMI was 613 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.
12/18 -
Tropical depression TRAMI was 363 nmi NNW of Yap, Caroline Islands. The storm's current path shows it heading towards Taiwan, but there are fears it could change direction over the Pacific Ocean and hit the northern part of the Philippines later this week.
12/17 -
Tropical depression TRAMI was 211 nmi N of Yap, Caroline Islands.
Typhoon Utor ripped through south China islands. Typhoon Utor has destroyed fishing sheds and caused boats to run aground in the Xisha Islands, in south China's Hainan Province, but no human casualties have been reported, local sources said on Friday. Typhoon Utor slammed into the Xisha Islands early Wednesday morning with winds of up to 162 kilometers per hour. After hours of gale force winds, waves at Yongxing Island, the largest island, were seven to eight meters high. Local fishermen and government staff stationed in the Xisha Islands have begun reconstruction work. Utor weakened into a depression Thursday afternoon with its eye 210 km southeast of Hainan's Sanya City. Utor killed 27 people and left eight missing in the Philippines after making landfall in the country on Tuesday.
12/15 -
NONE.
Typhoon Utor weakened into a tropical low pressure out over the East Sea early Thursday, easing fears in Vietnam.
12/14 -
Tropical storm UTOR was 247 nmi ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
12/13 -
Typhoon UTOR was 239 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam and 360 nmi SSW of Hong Kong.
VIETNAM - Typhoon Utor, described by meteorologists as fast-moving and unpredictable, is forecast to be within 140km of the Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands this afternoon. But predictions on where and when it will hit Vietnam vary considerably. Little of it's strength diminished after passing over the Philippines to approach the East Sea. The typhoon's circulation has a large radius of 500km while most typhoons fluctuate from 200km to 300km. Hong Kong's centre for metrology and hydrology said Utor may hit the coast from Quang Tri to Nha Trang while the US' navy and London University predicted it will not hit central Vietnam but move to the east of China's Hainan Island, which is off the coast of northern Vietnam.
Typhoon Utor has raced into the eastern areas of the South China Sea. Its arrival has caused temperatures to drop by more than 8 degrees Celsius in southern China. Meanwhile, regions along the south coast have experienced their lowest temperatures since the start of winter. And heavy rain has swept through most parts of the area. The typhoon is now heading towards the coastal areas at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.
12/12 -
Typhoon UTOR was 266 nmi W of Subic Bay, Philippines.
12/11 -
Typhoon UTOR was 166 nmi WSW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
TYPHOON Utor thundered out of the Philippines leaving six feared dead and thousands stranded today after high winds and waves tore up power lines and communication links in the archipelago. Utor, a category 2 typhoon with gusts of up to 150km/h, was forecast to strengthen to a category 4 typhoon by tomorrow on a path that skirts south of the Chinese island of Hainan later this week, likely by Friday.
12/10 -
Typhoon UTOR was 125 nmi SSW of Manila, Philippines.
UTOR - Tens of thousands of people in the Philippines were moved to emergency shelters as Typhoon Utor hit the centre of the island nation. The storm packed winds of 120km/h (75mph), cutting communication lines and water supplies, and causing power blackouts in areas. At least one person has been killed. More than 100,000 people were already in evacuation centres following last week's storm. During the next 48 hours, Typhoon Utor is expected to head out into the South China Sea - a course that could take it towards Vietnam or southern China.
PHILIPPINES - More than a week after the past super typhoon emergency struck the Philippines, authorities are still struggling to comprehend the full scale of the destruction. Initially focused on the sudden havoc caused by the combination of 466 millimeters of rainfall, 225 kph winds and FREAK mud and lava falls which likely killed over 1000 people in the space of a few hours near Mayon volcano, relief teams have now begun to look across the wide swath of devastation in Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes and Marinduque provinces. The damage defies belief. 2,436 schools in Regions 5, 4B and 4A have been completely or partially destroyed, with a cost of repair estimated at US$40,000,000.00. The education of more than 2,000,000 children has been stopped or severely hindered. 66,168 families – approximately 331,000 people – have been rendered completely homeless by Typhoon Reming and another 77,046 families have had their homes severely damaged. The Governor’s staff have compiled a one inch thick dossier of photographs depicting whole villages turned into matchsticks and hundreds of roofless school buildings. A report on the compound effects of the last three major typhoons – Milenyo (Sept.), Paeng (Oct) and Reming (Dec.) – to strike the country shows the total number of casualties from the three typhoon onslaught stands at 808 dead, 2652 injured, and 820 missing. The destruction from Reming is still far from being fully known. As of today the total number of persons displaced by the storms is 350,329. The combination of the three storms has dealt a severe blow to communication and power infrastructure. Electrical power supply across the whole area in virtually non-existent.
12/8 -
Tropical storm UTOR was 478 nmi E of Cebu City, Philippines.

UTOR is a new tropical storm approaching the Philippines on track to become the second typhoon in 10 days to batter the archipelago. Tropical Storm Utor was about 195 miles northwest of Palau and was forecast to make landfall Saturday, before moving toward the central city of Cebu, where Asian leaders are gathering for a three-day summit starting Monday. The system is forecast to intensify into a typhoon.
2007 HURRICANE SEASON - British hurricane forecasting group Tropical Storm Risk said on Thursday it expected a busier-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2007 with 16 tropical storms, of which nine would strengthen into hurricanes. It said five tropical storms would strike the United States and two of those storms would come ashore in the United States as hurricanes.
12/6 -
Tropical depression DURIAN was 178 nmi N of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia .
VIETNAM - Durian - Weather forecasters said the storm, which has winds up to 120 km (70 miles) per hour and heavy rains, took an UNPREDICTABLE TURN to strengthen and hit low-lying provinces of Vietnam's Mekong Delta rice-basket. State-run Vietnam Television showed footage of collapsed houses, fallen trees and electricity pylons as people struggled in wind and rain. At least 44 people are dead and another 50 missing. The storm was forecast to push westward toward Thailand, the Malaysian peninsula and into the Andaman Sea.
12/5 -
Typhoon DURIAN was 48 nmi SSE of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

VIETNAM - Typhoon Durian swept into southern Vietnam killing at least 26 people, with 147 injured and 15 missing, sinking hundreds of fishing boats and damaging houses, days after it killed hundreds in the Philippines. The storm, which has winds up to 120 kilometres per hour, hit the Mekong Delta provinces, an area of southern Vietnam not usually struck by typhoons or strong tropical storms. Forecasters said the storm was heading west into the Gulf of Thailand, across central Thailand and into the Indian Ocean. On its current path, the storm could brush Thai resort islands.
VIETNAM - Tropical Storm Durian lashed Vietnam, sweeping away fishing boats, destroying houses and downing power lines. Durian is currently crossing the Mekong Delta which as a low-lying area is at high-risk of flooding. Communication with the island of Phu Quay, some 250km (150 miles) east of Ho Chi Minh City, has been lost. Over 1,000 homes were damaged and more than 800 fishing boats swept away from their anchors on the island. It is HIGHLY UNUSUAL for southern Vietnam to experience such a storm in the month of December.
Typhoon Durian, the ninth storm to hit Vietnam this season, is gravely threatening coastal regions with all its 'ABNORMAL PHENOMENA' and is likely to slam into a wide swathe from Binh Dinh southward to Kien Giang. The sea would be very dangerous with waves as high as 12 meters, while the water level onshore will be raised by between three and four meters, according to the central weather forecast center. In many localities where the typhoon may sweep through, authorities have made forced evacuations, especially in low-lying areas and estuaries. In HCMC, which has never been directly hit by a super storm in decades, leaders have been urging the people to stay vigilant against the possible grave consequences. Typhoon Durian is believed to be more dangerous as it comes with many anomalies. Rarely has a typhoon of this force hit Vietnam, and in the past 45 years, only six typhoons have barreled into the country in December. Furthermore, typhoons often make landfall in central Vietnam, not in the southern region. The typhoon, which is moving at a speed of 15kph, is causing a large area of air turbulence. Localities within a radius of 120km from the storm eye will suffer wind velocity of Force 10, or nearly 90kph, while areas within the radius of between 250 and 300km will also suffer wind of Force 6.
PHILIPPINES - Typhoon mudslide photos.
UNITED KINGDOM - "North Atlantic Windstorm" - Hurricane force winds ripped through Britain causing catastrophic devastation in ONE OF THE WORST STORMS FOR 10 YEARS. Lethal winds gusting over 100 mph battered the coast, whipping up FREAK WAVES which crashed over harbour barriers, sweeping a man to his death and sinking several boats. In dramatic scenes, 12,000 homes were plunged into darkness by power cuts, whilst parts of the South were flooded by torrential rain. In Gloucestershire, a mini tornado sucked tiles from roofs, tore windows from their frames and blasted trees onto power cables. But whilst emergency services were struggling to deal with the scale of the damage last night, forecasters warned that a second onslaught was on its way overnight. Britain remains on severe weather warning alert with a risk of further structural damage and localised flooding tonight, according to experts. "This is not a typical winter event. It is VERY UNUSUAL for us to see this strength of wind. We haven't seen anything like it for a good number of years. This is a once in five or 10 year event. It's one of the worst storms for 10 years." The sudden storms were caused by a deep depression moving across the UK from the Atlantic, which dumped an estimated 52mm of rain, causing flooding in some areas of Essex, Devon, Gloucestershire and Northern Ireland. Though the worst may be over, more high winds are forecast. The tornados are occuring because of unseasonably warm southwesterly humid air meeting cooler air over the land.
12/4 -
Typhoon DURIAN was 278 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
12/3 -
Typhoon DURIAN was 356 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.

PHILIPPINES - Victims of recent mudslides in the Philippines are being buried in a mass grave to prevent the spread of disease. The mudslides were triggered by Typhoon Durian, which hit the country on Thursday. They engulfed villages south-east of the capital Manila. The official death toll stands at 406, with another 398 missing. Hopes of finding more survivors are dwindling. The death toll could easily reach 700, and possibly even outstrip 1,000. "There are many unidentified bodies, there could be a lot more hidden below. Whole families may have been wiped out." More than 40,000 people have been displaced by the mudslides. Many of the survivors, who have lost not only their homes but their livelihoods too after fruit trees and rice paddies were destroyed, have crammed into makeshift shelters in schools and churches.
Typhoon Reming (Durian) is the latest in the series of deadly and destructive tropical cyclones to ravage the Philippines in recent years. The typhoon brought 466 millimeters of RAINFALL, THE HIGHEST IN 40 YEARS. Reming is also the THIRD SUPER-TYPHOON THIS YEAR, A FIRST IN PHILIPPINE HISTORY – and the fourth major typhoon in 4 months. Lafayette, an Australian mining company operating in Rapu-Rapu, Albay, reported sustaining structural damage in the wake of the supertyphoon. Reports are rife that Lafayette interrupted its operations and even halted stock trading activities because of the severe structural damage it suffered. “We fear that another serious mine spill may have occurred – or will be occurring – due to the structural damage sustained by Lafayette after typhoon ‘Reming’ hit...The serious fact that the mine had to again stop operations and even halted its stocks trading only indicates that the Lafayette mine facility is not structurally sound." A technical expert on dam design noted that the Lafayette dam was under-designed in the light of Philippine rainfall conditions, especially in high-risk areas along the typhoon belt such as Bicol. Lafayette, in various statements released to the media, had cited excessive rainfall as one of the causes of the two mine spills that occurred in Rapu-Rapu last year. (PHOTOS)
Atlantic hurricane season - It may have been a 10-storm season: "A July weather system over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia is being reexamined ... to determine whether it qualifies as an unnamed tropical cyclone." This kind of after-the-season addition isn't uncommon. You might recall that last spring, the hurricane center added a 28th storm to the 2005 season - an unnamed subtropical storm from October that the forecasters had missed. This was the first year since 2001 that no hurricanes hit the United States. September's four hurricanes actually made the month busier than average. Ernesto was the only storm to cause any significant damage in the United States. Total: $500 million.
12/1 -
Cyclone 04P was 1145 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
Cyclone ANITA was 846 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Typhoon DURIAN was 103 nmi SW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
PHILIPPINES - At least 388 people are confirmed dead and 96 missing after rivers of mud and volcanic ash triggered by Super-typhoon Durian swamped villages in the Philippines. The mudslides reached as high as rooftops as they poured down from Mount Mayon volcano, according to witnesses.
Typhoon Durian tore through the eastern Philippines on Thursday with winds of up to 224 km/h, killing at least 109 people and cutting off power to thousands of homes. More than 200 people were missing. Camarines Sur province reported that its capital was flattened. A mudslide swept down on the village of Padang at the foot of the Mayon volcano, and at least 20 bodies were recovered there. Some victims had their clothes ripped off as they were swept away by the mudslide.
Villages near Mayon volcano, south-east of Manila, were among the worst-hit. Rains caused by Typhoon Durian brought mud and huge rocks down hillsides, burying at least two villages. Five other villages were also affected, and rescuers in some cases resorted to digging through the mud with their hands for survivors. The full extent of the damage wrought by Durian is not yet known because power and telephone lines have been brought down, but as many as 22,000 people across the region are thought to have been affected.
Tropical storm 04P is forecast to strike Vanuatu at about 18:00 GMT on December 2.
11/30 -
Typhoon DURIAN was 319 nmi ESE of Manila, Philippines.
PHILIPPINES - Weather bureau PAGASA hoisted public storm signal number 4 over four provinces in Bicol as "super typhoon" Reming (international codename Durian) threatened the region and other Luzon areas with rains and wind gusts. It is expected to make landfall this morning. The National Disaster Coordinating Council, meanwhile, appealed to billboard owners to start dismantling outdoor advertisement in preparation for the arrival of Reming.
“People will die” once super-typhoon Reming [Durian] hits land, but officials are hoping its damage will be minimal and that it brings much-needed water to the parched Manila metropolis. “We expect that Reming will become a super typhoon and will reach signal no. 4 — stronger than typhoons Milenyo and Paeng. This super typhoon can increase the water levels of our dams and once these are opened, people will die.” Early this week, the state-run National Power Corp. started releasing only 39 cu m a second from the dam instead of the usual 41. That caused water service interruptions to almost half of the 1.34 million Metro Manila residents being served by Maynilad Water Services. The super typhoon has a diameter of 400 km. Metro Manila aside, it is also expected to hit Catanduanes, Quezon, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, and Pangsinan.
Typhoon Durian, which lies centered off the Philippines, is continuing to move towards the East Sea and is likely to hit Vietnam by Friday.
Tropical storm 03S is forecast to strike Mozambique at about 00:00 GMT on December 1. (projected path)
Complex El Nino Event brings UNUSUAL WEATHER to the Marshall Islands - With El Niño conditions predicted to continue into early 2007, there is a 50% risk that a numbered tropical depression or a named tropical storm will pass through the Republic of the Marshall Islands between November 2006 and January 2007. Under normal conditions, the Marshall Islands has a very low risk of a tropical storm or typhoon during any month of the year as the cyclones gain strength farther to the east. Typhoon Zelda (1991) and Typhoon Paka (1997) were El Niño-related tropical cyclones in the Marshall Islands. This October, Typhoon Soulik swiped Majuro and Kwajalein with gusty southerly winds creating high sea conditions. The waves topped the seawall on the southern boundary of the Majuro Airport, and saltwater entered the rainwater retention facility by the runway. Eight million gallons of fresh water, which would have gone to the reservoir, was contaminated and expelled. Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke, a large and long-lasting typhoon, formed to the south of Hawaii and moved on a long track toward Japan, passing directly over Wake Island, forcing a complete evacuation of the island. The storm also affected the Marshall Islands, bringing extremely high wind and waves to Bikini the Northern Atolls.
11/29 -
Typhoon DURIAN was 320 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Weather disturbance Reming (international codename Durian) has intensified into a typhoon and is forecast to hit Metro Manila in the next two days. The typhoon has increased its threat to Central Luzon after continuing to gather strength. About 20 typhoons and tropical storms lash the Philippines each year.
11/28 -
Tropical storm DURIAN was 593 nmi W of Agana, Guam.
Potential super-typhoon - Durian is expected to strengthen and converge on Filipino waters, continuing to head in a northwesterly direction with gusts of wind likely to hit 140kmph late today. Filipino weather centers predicted the storm would make landfall there Friday before it moving on toward the East Sea. The storm is expected to be packing winds of 250kmph as it hits the Philippines, fanning fears of another super typhoon in the East Sea.
Atlantic hurricane season 2006 officially ends on Thursday. Hurricane season 2006 was really quite average. “This season was one storm below average with 10 storms so far. I think the large number of storms last year and some of the predictions for this year have misled people as to what is normal.” Credit a persistent pressure system called the Bermuda High with turning many storms safely into the mid-Atlantic, away from the mainland. “Depending on where the Bermuda High is centered, the storms will turn because they have to go around it.” “The Westerlies were blowing, causing shear, the air off the Sahara was dry, and the water temperatures were not record high (as in 2005). And the Bermuda High widened out, which also helped.” Many years have gone by without a hurricane making landfall, so our present season was not all that unusual.
11/27 -
Tropical storm DURIAN was 355 nmi WSW of Agana, Guam.
11/24 -
Cyclone YANI was 992 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
The central pressure of the system is rapidly weakening. The tropical cyclone poses no threat to any islands of Vanuatu. However seas will be rough with moderate to heavy swells. Some moderate to occasional heavy showers is expected throughout the Vanuatu group.
AUSTRALIA - Tons of debris left by category-five Cyclone Larry in March is worrying North Queensland residents who fear severe winds could turn the objects into missiles. The debris needs to be cleared before summer storms strike. There are around 100 houses in the region which still have tarpaulins covering damage from the cyclone. “We had 151 wet days since the cyclone and 2.5 metres of rain so it has been a massive effort.” The debris threat exacerbated locals' concern this week as news came of a cyclone threatening to form near Fiji.
RUSSIA - A cyclone currently affecting Russia’s Sakhalin Island and the Kuriles has disrupted electric power supply to the cities Kholmsk, Nevelsk, Tomari and settlements in the Uglegorsk, Kholmsk and Smirnykhov districts. According to the press service of the Sakhalinenergo power utility company, due to overlapping of wires and adhesion of wet snow to them the automatic overload protection system went off over 40 times switching off 13 electric power transmission lines on Thursday morning, which caused electricity supply disruption to settlements. According to meteorologists, the cyclone is gradually moving away from Sakhalin to the Sea of Okhotsk, but there is still strong wind on the islands reaching 27 metres per second.

NORTH KOREA - Typhoon Bilis, which hit in North Korea in July, killed thousands more people than the country has officially admitted, an analysis by a British scientist suggests. Satellite images of the region around the town of Yangdok reveal widespread devastation caused by floods and landslides. Dozens of apartment blocks were destroyed or seriously damaged, bridges swept away and roads and railways wrecked. The pictures showed that the official death toll of 549, with a further 295 missing, was "absolutely not credible"."It is clear that Typhoon Bilis resulted in A DISASTER ON AN EPIC SCALE in North Korea. Based on experience from other disaster sites and because the flood happened in the middle of the night, when many people in the mainly residential buildings were asleep, it is likely the death toll would have been very high, probably well over 10,000." Citing sources in the North Korean government, it has been claimed that 57,000 people died as a result of the typhoon. More than 300mm (12ins) of rain reportedly fell on Yangdok during the typhoon, more than a quarter of its ANNUAL average. The resulting mudslides and severe flooding appeared to have ruined swaths of agricultural land, which would threaten food supplies in the region over the coming months.
11/23 -
Cyclone YANI was 1000 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
RUSSIA - A new cyclone came to Sakhalin and the Kuriles on Wednesday. Meteorologists have issued a storm warning, and fishing and transport ships have moved from the Tatar Strait and the south of the Sea of Okhotsk to safe bays. According to the Sakhalin meteorological centre, the cyclone with heavy rain and snow will rage on all the islands in the Sakhalin Region for two days. The windstorm has already hit the coasts of Sakhalin and the Kuriles. [aftershocks from the 8.3 Kuril quake continue also]
11/22 -
Cyclone 02P was 1005 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
11/21 -
Tropical storm SERGIO was 363 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Sergio has set the record for THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER.
11/17 -
Tropical storm SERGIO was 237 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Rare mid-November cyclone - Hurricane Sergio sprayed rain on the Mexican resort city of Acapulco on Thursday, but forecasters said the storm was likely to lose power before hitting tourist hot spots like Los Cabos. A Category 2 hurricane, Sergio carried winds of 98 mph (157 kph) and was moving slowly northwards. Its strength set a NEW RECORD - The eastern Pacific has not seen a storm as strong as Sergio so late in the season since officials began keeping records.
11/16 -
Hurricane SERGIO was 318 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

SERGIO - The UNUSUAL late-season storm was the second to form in the eastern Pacific this month. It was the first time since 1961 that two tropical storms have formed in the eastern Pacific in the month of November. Only five tropical storms have formed later in the year than Sergio.
RUSSIA - The powerful cyclone which approached Russia’s Kamchatka overnight has hit its south-western coast with gale-force winds reaching up to 43 meters per second. [this is near the site of the 8.3 quake] Ships are hiding in safe bays. A storm warning has been issued in the region. Meanwhile, a new cyclone is approaching the peninsula. It will reach Kamchatka on Friday.
11/15 -
Tropical depression CHEBI was 191 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm SERGIO was 355 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.
VIETNAM - Typhoon Chebi had weakened into a tropical depression Tuesday and no longer threatened the central region, Vietnam’s National Hydrometeorological Forecast Center said. At noon Tuesday, the depression lay about 470 km southeast of the central coast between Thua Thien-Hue and Ha Tinh provinces. It was moving west-northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 kph and continued to weaken. However, due to a weak cold snap from the north, the central costal region would continue to experience strong winds and torrential rains in the coming days.
RUSSIA - authorities in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky have proclaimed an emergency situation in the city because of powerful storms. A powerful cyclone continues raging in the region, constantly causing failures in the heating, water and energy networks, which are swiftly repaired. Precipitation over the last two days exceeds the average for an entire month by 50%, the meteorological center said.
11/14 -
Tropical depression 21E was 355 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico. (nearing tropical storm strength, may reach hurricane strength)
Tropical storm CHEBI was 194 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
RUSSIA - The aftermath of the strong cyclone left many settlements without electricity in the Kurilsk, Kholmsk, Uglegorsk and Tomarinsk districts. The hurricane has torn off the power lines in many places in Kholmsk, where about 50,000 people live. Eighty percent of apartment blocks were left without power supply in the city on Sunday evening. Their power supply was restored on Monday. But half of Kholmsk residents are left without water supply, as the power supply is cut to two water reservoirs. The villages Kostromskoye, Yablochnoye, Pravda, Chaplanovo, Pyatirechye, where about 7,000 people live, are left without electricity. The Iturup island was the hardest hit on the Kurile Islands. Forty-five houses are left without electricity, and the roofs of 68 houses are damaged. According to Sakhalin weather forecasters, the cyclone has subsided a little bit and is moving along the eastern coast of Sakhalin to the north of the island. Sleet is going on in southern Sakhalin. A storm is raging in the Tatar Strait in the north of the Sea of Japan.
Typhoon Chebi weakening as it reaches Vietnam - Set to make a landfall in northern Vietnam – the eighth typhoon to hit Vietnam this year – on Wednesday afternoon, Typhoon Chebi is weakening to tropical low pressure, but will cause strong winds and rough seas as early as this morning.
11/13 -
Tropical storm CHEBI was 288 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm "Queenie" (international codename: Chebi), left the Philippine area Sunday and is heading toward Vietnam. Officials are reporting that as a result of the storm, one person is dead and five others are missing in northeastern Philippines. The typhoon toppled trees and triggered flashfloods in the region. Chebi is expected to gain strength as it heads toward Vietnam. Reports also said that at least five fishermen were missing when their outrigger boats capsized near Sabang, Quezon.
RUSSIA - Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands were in a complete transport blockade on Sunday over a powerful cyclone that swooped down on the area from the Pacific. Ships are at a standstill, and aircraft do not come or go. All ships operating in the area of the Kuriles found shelter at relatively calm bays. Wind gusts in the Sea of Okhotsk reach 35-38 meters per second, while waves are 8-9 meters high. The South Kuriles were battered by heavy rains: 70 mm of precipitation fell on the island of Shikotan overnight, which is a monthly norm.
11/12 -
Tropical depression 20E was 693 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon CHEBI was 139 nmi W of Subic Bay, Philippines.
CHEBI - More than 8,000 people had to leave their homes as typhoon Chebi departed from the Philippines today, moving further west into the South China Sea. Several roads in the northern Philippines were rendered impassable due to landslides and swollen rivers with the water in many major dams reaching critical levels due to heavy rains.
Typhoon 'Chebi' weakened as it sliced through the center of the Philippines' main Philippine island of Luzon Saturday, causing floods, toppling trees and power lines and damaging crops. Two people were injured when a coconut tree fell on a house in Casiguran, and strong winds destroyed two houses and damaged a dozen others. Several villages in San Jose town in the rice-growing province of Nueva Ecija were under 1.2 metres of floodwater, submerging farms and ready-to-harvest rice crops. The floodwaters are expected to subside quickly, but the rice crop would be permanently damaged if it remains submerged for two days.
RUSSIA - Another powerful cyclone with winds of up to 38 metres a second is moving from the Pacific to the Kurile Islands. The first cyclone strike will hit the Southern Kuriles this morning. The cyclone will move from the Southern Kuriles to the eastern coast of Sakhalin, reach the Shantar Islands in the Sea of Okhotsk on Monday and leave for the Khabarovsk Territory, meteorologists say. The Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk sea rescue coordinating centre repeated the storm warning for all vessels, and they have moved to their nearest shelters.
11/10 -
Tropical storm CHEBI was 365 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.
Tropical depression ROSA was 187 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
PHILIPPINES - The second tropical storm in two weeks was headed toward the northern Philippines today. Tropical storm “Queenie” (international codename: Chebi) intensified as it continued to move toward the Isabela-Aurora area, prompting the state weather bureau to raise storm warnings over several Luzon provinces. Queenie is expected to hit land in the vicinity of Baler on Saturday morning and cross northern Luzon on its way to the South China Sea. About 20 typhoons and tropical storms lash the country each year. Chebi is the 17th this season.
Tropical storm Rosa formed in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico on Thursday and weather forecasters gave it a slim chance of grazing the coast. It is expected to move parallel to the coast before likely fizzling over the ocean early next week. But Rosa could change its northwesterly direction if it managed to maintain its current windspeeds. Mexico's Pacific coast has been blitzed with hurricanes and storms this year, whereas its Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coasts have seen little activity.
11/9 -
Tropical depression 19E was 338 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical depression 23W was 479 nmi NW of Yap, Caroline Islands.
11/8 -
Tropical depression 19-E is centered about 345 nmi S-SW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.
PHILIPPINES - Some 700 families in a remote mountain village northeast of the capital town are still isolated by landslides a week after typhoon "Paeng" (Cimaron) pummeled Cagayan, leaving dozens of people dead and millions of pesos in infrastructure damage and agricultural losses. Rampaging floodwaters and landslides spawned by the super howler destroyed the bridge linking Runruno, a traditional mining village in Quezon town, to the rest of the province. Authorities fear that villagers may starve as relief aid trickles due to the barangay’s difficult terrain and the lack of resources. The Air Force has stopped its rescue and relief efforts, too. Many houses in Runruno are destroyed and farms are covered in mud.
TAIWAN - From Wednesday to Friday last week, typhoon winds fanned Hong Kong's BIGGEST HILL FIRE SEEN IN A DECADE. The blaze had destroyed at least 65,000 trees covering 400 hectares (990 acres) in a country park in the northern part of the rural New Territories district. The dry weather and strong winds from Typhoon Cimaron, which killed at least 19 in the Philippines and had been lingering in the South China Sea, helped spread the blaze.
CANADA - The intense storm now wreaking havoc on British Columbia's coast was propelled by the powerful Asian typhoon that hit the Philippines a week ago. The week-old remnants of Typhoon Cimaron, the strongest storm to hit the Philippines in eight years, a maximum five category storm - a storm as intense as Hurricane Katrina - reached the Coast Range Sunday evening. The storm unleashed its heaviest load of water at about 5 a.m. Monday. "What's typical of these Pineapple Express rainstorms is that the rainfall intensity for each hour is quite strong."
11/7 -
None.
11/6 -
None.
11/5 -
NONE.
OREGON - A high wind warning is currently in effect from the National Weather Service for the north Oregon coast, but it apparently started smacking the central coast on Friday and Thursday. Powerful winds and large waves are expected for the region this weekend, caused by an UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENON – a major hurricane-like storm - that’s parked off the coast about 900 miles. This is a rare subtropical storm, which usually does not come into existence this high in latitude. Scientists say the storm has hurricane characteristics. It looks like one from the satellite images, it has a cloudless eye, an eye wall of thunderstorms and winds around 50 knots. It is so powerful that it would normally be named if it had been in one of the routinely monitored hurricane basins. Because it formed outside the territory of any of the organizations which regularly monitor these storms, it was not named. The storm has been referred to as “Storm 91C” by the U.S. Navy.
Subtropical Storm off the Coast of Oregon - Tropical storms, as their name suggest, tend to form in the tropics. However, from time to time similar-looking storms can form at higher latitudes. Extratropical storms have cold rather than warm cores, and they usually form their characteristic spiral shape when air masses of different temperatures and humilities collide. Another type of storm that can take a hurricane shape is a polar low, a small-scale, short-lived low-pressure storm system that forms at high latitudes. On RARE occasions, however, there are PECULIAR, hybrid storms with some of the characteristics of a tropical storm and some characteristics of an extratropical storm. Such storms are sometimes called subtropical storms. Located 900 miles off the coast of Oregon in the northwestern Pacific, this storm system looks like a hurricane, but it is located far from any of the typical hurricane formation areas. The storm originally formed from a cold-cored extratropical storm, but after spending two days over UNUSUALLY WARM WATER (perhaps as much as 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the time of year), it developed a warm center, and hurricane characteristics, such as a cloud-free eye and an eyewall of thunderstorms. (satellite photo)
The South Atlantic Ocean currently also has UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS. "The South Atlantic is very unusual, let’s just say that. For this time of year, the High is a long way south. The High which is there at the moment is going to disappear to South Africa and a new one will form, but the South Atlantic is nowhere near conventional for this time of year. It is quite different."
11/3 -
Tropical storm CIMARON was 241 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.
11/2 -
Typhoon CIMARON was 241 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
VIETNAM - With Typhoon Cimaron showing signs of a course change, Vietnamese officials have put on hold plans to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people from the central coast. The storm, which left 19 people dead in the Philippines, had been heading toward the central Vietnamese city of Danang but was changing direction as it crossed the South China Sea. Vietnamese weather forecasters had feared that the typhoon, which departed the Philippines on Tuesday, could land in Vietnam as early as Friday.
11/1 -
Typhoon CIMARON was 247 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
INDIA - At least 20 people were killed and hundreds of houses destroyed when a cyclone hit coastal districts of India's southern Andhra Pradesh state. The cyclone 'Ogni' made landfall near the Bapatla town, located some 280 kilometres south-east of state capital Hyderabad on Monday, bringing with it torrential rains and gales reaching up to 70 kilometres per hour. The cyclone caused large-scale damage to property and agriculture. '1206 houses were destroyed while 1834 houses were partially damaged. Crops in nearly 60,000 acres are submerged under rain water.
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10/31 -
Typhoon CIMARON was 204 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.
Typhoon Cimaron , which formed Saturday over the eastern Filipino coast, is moving north and west toward Vietnam packing high winds and rough seas, set to make landfall in central areas November 1. The storm is expected to continue moving northwesterly at 15kph over the next 24 hours, and warnings have been issued to all seafaring vessels in the area. The British Tropical Storm Risks center predicted the typhoon would weaken as it hit central Vietnam, possibly Quang Ngai province, on November 1. But data supplied by the JTWC still graded the storm as a “super” typhoon.
10/30 -
Typhoon CIMARON was 41 nmi NW of Baguio City, Philippines.
THE PHILIPPINES was hit by ONE OF 'STRONGEST TYPHOONS EVER'. Typhoon Cimaron blew over the northern Philippines today, felling trees, toppling power lines, blasting roofs off homes and leaving at least three people dead. Cimaron, which made landfall late Sunday, is the second typhoon to hit the northern Philippines in as many months and was packing maximum winds of 175 km/h and gusts of up to 210 km/h. It was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam late today.
INDIA - Even as Orissa remembered the unprecedented devastation caused by the super cyclone on Monday seven years ago, a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on the Andhra Pradesh coast. The depression formed over the west central Bay. The system was likely to move in a northerly direction and cross the Andhra Coast between Bapatla and Kakinada. The forecast is for the likelihood of rain or thunder-shower at many places over south Orissa and a few places over the northern districts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the open sea.
10/29 -
Typhoon CIMARON was 167 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.
PHILIPPINES - Tropical storm Paeng (international codename Cimaron) has intensified into a typhoon, increasing its threat to Central and Northern Luzon. Residents in areas where storm signals have been hoisted were warned against possible flashfloods and landslides especially those who live along the eastern coast of Luzon.
10/27 -
Tropical depression 18E was 189 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical storm CIMARON was 438 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical depression PAUL was 142 nmi NNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Tropical storm Paul has hit the coast of the Mexican mainland after skirting around the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. It came ashore near La Reforma on the western coast, after being downgraded from hurricane status. Paul could still cause flash flooding after it dumps rain on the Sierra Madre mountains, forecasters say. Tropical storm Paul has reportedly killed two people. A 65-year-old American man was swept off a beach at Los Cabos by a wave and is presumed dead. A 23-year-old Mexican fisherman is also said to have died on Monday after slipping off wet rocks. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Sinaloa on the western mainland.
RUSSIA - a storm warning has been announced to the fleet over the approach of a cyclone towards the Kamchatka Peninsula southern coast. “The cyclone is approaching Kamchatka from the south and will begin to affect the peninsula next night. The atmospheric vortex will move towards the northwest part of the Pacific and on October 28 its influence on the peninsula will subside.” Meteorologists say that winds with force up to 20 metres per second and a storm are expected in the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk and Pacific areas adjacent to the southern coast of the peninsula due to the cyclone approach. Sleet precipitation is also possible in the Kamchatka region.
10/26 -
Tropical storm PAUL was 56 nmi WNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1257 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.
Tropical Cyclone Xavier is moving closer to Fiji earlier than expected, the weather office has warned. "The cyclone poses no direct threat to Fiji; its persistent movement will bring the cyclone closer to the group than earlier anticipated". The damaging gale force winds extend to 180km from the centre. Some parts of the country will experience strong winds as a result. The cyclone had consequently become a greater threat to Fiji than Vanuatu but "luckily the system has entered into unfavourable environmental conditions and is expected to weaken before getting within close proximity of the Fiji Group".
10/25 -
Tropical storm PAUL was 64 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1302 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.
Hurricane Paul weakened to a tropical storm Tuesday, but lashed Mexico's Baja California peninsula with rain and winds today while high waves washed a US tourist from a beach resort. A large wave swept away the US tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. He is missing and presumed dead. The storm was about 210km southwest of Los Cabos and was expected to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa. Sinaloa state, an important agricultural area, took a hit from Hurricane Lane last month. Lane, which killed three people, seriously damaged tomato crops in the state, helping push inflation in Mexico to its highest monthly rate in six years.
10/24 -
Hurricane PAUL was 256 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1312 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
On its current track, Cyclone XAVIER may cause destructive storm force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Vanuatu expects frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms, damaging heavy swells, and flooding, including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas. (satellite photo)
Category 1 Hurricane PAUL weakened this morning, but emergency workers remained on standby to evacuate thousands of residents from the San Jose del Cabo resort in Mexico. About 2,000 to 3,000 families could be evacuated from flood-risk areas to 49 shelters, mostly schools, ahead of Paul, the third hurricane this season to threaten the area. A trough of low pressure has been sending storms this season on a track that takes them toward Mexico's Baja peninsula.
10/23 -
Hurricane PAUL was 410 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1190 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Tropical Storm Paul formed off Mexico‘s west coast Saturday. Paul spun away from Mexico's west coast on Sunday, but forecasters predicted it could become a hurricane and turn towards land within two days. Paul was forecast to gradually shift to the north-east and skirt the southern tip of Baja California, hitting mainland Mexico around the state of Sinaloa early in the week as a hurricane.
The South Pacific's first tropical cyclone, Xavier, is intensifying north of Vanuatu. Cyclone Xavier is slowly moving towards the north of Vanuatu and is expected to pose a direct threat to Vanuatu. Fiji faces no threat from the tropical cyclone, but will experience some rain due to a ridge of high pressure. The Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre is predicting an above average number of cyclones in the South Pacific due to the moderate effects of El Nino. Xavier struck the Solomon Islands at about 06:00 GMT this morning. Projected path
10/20 -
NONE
Hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. In the 1960s heyday of cloudseeding, the U.S. military undertook "Project Stormfury," with planes spraying silver iodide into hurricanes to form a new larger "eyewall" that would weaken the overall storm. Results were mixed and the program ended. More recently, a study found that people could indeed modify hurricanes - without realizing they were doing it. Detailed statistical analysis showed that over the past 30 years or so hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. It turned out tropical cyclones along the Atlantic coast were markedly weaker on weekends. The researchers concluded that the buildup of pollution from industry and transportation through the work week was acting as the creators of Project Stormfury had wanted, as a stormweakener. Actually, it now appears that Tropical Storm Chris experienced a kind of "pollution death" as it sucked in a lot of dust crossing the Atlantic. So "through our actions we humans may indeed be influencing hurricanes."
10/19 -
NONE
The 2006 hurricane season has been extremely kind to the U.S. compared to 2005. It will be recorded as a year with three landfalling tropical storms in the U.S. and no U.S. hurricanes (unless that changes between now and the end of November). Going back to 1950, only five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. after October 17th. But very often in quiet years (and also active years) we find weather events with huge impact that never get their event stamped into the historical storm/hurricane record book. These are the big rain events, like the one October 16 in southeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. This strong surge of tropical moisture on the verge of becoming a tropical depression (if it were not for shear) rushed north into east Texas and Louisiana as it interacted with an approaching upper-level trough and surface frontal boundary and slid east into Mississippi. The resulting flooding rains were worse for some than what can happen in many tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. More reports keep coming in, with the highest so far being 14 1/2 inches in Kountze, Texas. This was a three-state flooding rainfall, not just a localized event. Much damage resulted; with 19 tornadoes (preliminary count). This big rain/flood event in the east Texas area was not their first during the 2006 hurricane season. One of the first "big" tropical weather impacts to the U.S. (just after Alberto affected the eastern states), occurred on June 18-19 in the form of flooding rains in the greater Houston, Texas area. They may end up getting two of the most significant tropical weather impacts from the 2006 hurricane season. Is it time to warn the public based on the potential impacts to land, rather than on a sterile scientific definition of "what is a tropical cyclone?"
10/16 -
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression Norman was 27 nmi W of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon Soulik was 370 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.
Former Tropical Storm Norman regenerated into a tropical depression Sunday and was lashing southwestern Mexico with heavy rains. The government issued a tropical storm warning for a swath of the Pacific Coast from the port city of Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, but discontinued it about 12 hours later. Late Sunday, Norman had maximum sustained winds near 55 kph (35 mph) and was centered 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the resort of Manzanillo. It had been speeding toward Mexico's coast, but slowed before becoming stationary and starting to dissipate. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Norman had been likely to strengthen again into a tropical storm before coming ashore. But as the storm weakened, it was unclear if its center would move ashore. Despite it's lost wind speed, Norman continued to dump heavy rain on southern Mexico. The hurricane center said it could drop 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) of rain over some areas with isolated accumulations of 38 centimeters (15 inches), threatening flash floods and mudslides. Norman formed far out in the Pacific on Oct. 9, and quickly became a tropical storm before weakening into a tropical depression and disintegrating further. But it regenerated before dawn on Sunday and began heading straight for Mexico.
Tropical storm Soulic, Asia's 19th major storm of the year, is centered far out in the Pacific Ocean but is expected to bring gales to the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan straits and oceans south of Japan. The storm, packing winds or more than 140 kilometers an hour is moving northeastly at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.
10/15 -
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon SOULIK was 486 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical Storm Soulik - Okinawa and Japan’s main islands appear to be safe from Tropical Storm Soulik, which continued to churn slowly northwest toward Iwo Jima but was forecast to curve sharply northeast by the weekend and dissipate well to the east of Tokyo. Okinawa might experience some “pretty significant waves” and “something in the next day or two as far as wind and increased chance of showers not associated with feeder bands but because it’s in the area.”
10/13 -
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 690 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon SOULIK was 595 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
10/12 -
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 869 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 457 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Tropical Storm Soulik continued intensifying as it rumbled Tuesday toward Iwo Jima, and forecasters at Kadena Air Base said the chances were good that Okinawa could be on the itinerary for the 21st storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. It was still “about a week” from reaching Okinawa “as it stands right now … assuming nothing major changes in the atmosphere.”
10/11 -
Tropical depression NORMAN was 545 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 908 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 323 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
10/10 -
Tropical depression 16E was 1143 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm NORMAN was 587 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 430 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Tropical Storm Norman is the 18th named storm of the 2006 Pacific hurricane season. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. Norman is located well to the southwest of Baja California, and is currently tracking north at 7 miles per hour. The storm is expected to slowly curve to the northeast as it slowly strengthens, then slowly weaken when it moves over colder waters. There is a chance that it could bring winds and rain to Baja California before it dissipates. (map)
RUSSIA - The cyclone in South Kurils killed a motorboat captain. The motorboat, which has a crew of four, was anchored near the village of Golovnino on the Kunashir Island. The strong wing and high waves tore off the anchor and carried the boat away to the sea. The crew failed to start the engine and sent a May Day signal. The Mechta boat was sent to rescue the RSH-2477 motorboat, but it failed to come close enough. The motorboat crewmembers jumped overboard and were picked up by the Mechta. The captain died during the rescue operation, presumably of a heart attack. The Mechta is unable to reach the shore because of eight-meter-high waves. It is drifting in the Izmeny Bay. Another motorboat, RSH-2251, was carried away from Golovnino on Sunday. The motorboat was under repairs and had no people onboard. Both motorboats are drifting towards Japan. Tokyo has been warned about the navigation peril between the South Kuril Island of Kunashir and the Japanese Island of Hokkaido. The cyclone came to the South Kurils from Japan, where a series of shipwrecks happened, killing four people and causing the disappearance of another 29. The cyclone is moving along the Kuril islands to the north, and will reach the Island of Paramushir in about one day.
10/9 -
Tropical depression 15E was 630 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 21W was 650 nmi E of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
RUSSIA - A powerful cyclone hit the Southern Kuriles on Sunday. The wind has reached 130 kilometers per hour in Yuzhno-Kurilsk, on the Kunashir Island. Large storm waves of six meters beat the water areas in the Pacific Ocean and the Okhotsk Sea close to the Kurile range. Fishing vessels are hiding in sheltered bays. Weather experts say the cyclone will continue to reign on the islands on Sunday and Monday and then will decrease, going to the Pacific Ocean. (photo)
10/8 -
None.
JAPAN - One Indian sailor is dead and 25 people are missing off Japan's Pacific coast after two ships ran aground in high winds and heavy seas. Heavy rains and high winds touched off by a low-pressure system lashed eastern Japan on Friday and early Saturday, producing high waves and heavy seas.
10/6 -
Tropical depression BEBINCA was 413 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression RUMBIA was 760 nmi NNE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
10/5 -
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 324 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical depression RUMBIA was 575 nmi NE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
VIETNAM - A 13-month-old boy in Vietnam survived devastating Typhoon Xangsane after flying away in his cradle over a two-story building. The boy was sleeping in a cradle hanging from a roof beam when he was taken away as the powerful typhoon hit Danang city on Sunday morning. "His father saw the cradle flying away, above a two-story school building nearby." The flying baby boy was found stuck in waterplants in a pond, 150 metres from his home. He suffered from very small head injuries. The family is now staying in the hospital as the house was completely destroyed.
Tropical storm Neneng (international codename: Bebinca) has changed course, heading toward southern Japan and away from the rain-soaked northern Philippines, which was still reeling from last week's typhoon, forecasters said Wednesday. It could intensify into a typhoon as it heads toward southern Japan over the next few days. Neneng has interacted with a low pressure area east of Luzon, bringing rains and flash floods. Flash floods stranded hundreds of commuters in Mindoro Occidental province, 200 kilometers south of Manila, and sank several houses. On Tuesday, six people were killed in flash floods east of Manila.
10/4 -
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 529 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
China said Tuesday that Typhoon Bebinca, the 17th tropical storm of the year, was building up near the Philippines and could affect its eastern shores. Chinese forecasters said Bebinca was moving north at about 9 miles per hour. Warnings were issued to fishing boats to steer away from the storm's path. The forecast said strong winds or gales were expected to hit the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea from late Tuesday to tonight.
VIETNAM - Massive damage to infrastructure at industrial parks in Vietnam’s central region which was hit by Typhoon Xangsane last weekend has brought business there to a standstill. At least 600 factories and warehouses have either collapsed or lost their roofs. Tens of thousands of workers are likely to be unemployed for at least a month as the supplies of water and electricity to the parks have been interrupted after pipelines and almost all electricity poles in Danang city were uprooted. Despite two days of cleaning up, the scenes of devastation remain awesome with trees, construction materials, irons bars, and roofs scattered around. Over 220,000 houses in Danang city and Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Hue, and Binh Dinh provinces were inundated, destroyed, or unroofed, and 370 fishing boats destroyed. 45 people were killed or are missing. Estimated total damages are 10 trillion dong ($627 million) (photo).
PHILIPPINES - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane in the Philippines has neared 200, as rescue workers reached remote areas where last week's massive storm sparked flash floods and landslides. The storm wrecked 146,000 houses and tens of thousands of hectares of farmland. Some 171,000 people displaced by floods and strong winds remained in evacuation centres. Scattered flooding was reported around Manila overnight as another tropical storm approached from the Pacific coast. The new storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometres per hour, was expected to brush past the northeast coast of Luzon late Friday or early Saturday.
10/3 -
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 484 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm ISAAC was 368 nmi E of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
PHILIPPINES - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane in the Philippines has more than doubled to at least 161, with at least 72 others still reported missing. The seventy-two people are missing from a landslide in the town of San Francisco in Laguna province. The typhoon, the strongest to hit the Philippines capital in a decade, displaced 1.33 million people and blacked out the country's main island of Luzon, leaving some 43 million people in the dark. The storm wrecked 146,000 houses and tens of thousands of hectares of farmland. Scattered flooding was reported around Manila overnight as another tropical storm approached from the Pacific coast, but there were no additional casualties reported.
VIETNAM - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane rose to 41 and tens of thousands of people have been displaced.

CHINA - At least one person died and 12 were injured after Typhoon Xangsane battered southern China's island province of Hainan over the weekend.
THAILAND - The Meteorological Station in Trat Province has warned people of flash flood influenced from Typhoon Xangsane. The province has been warned that it will experience an 80 percent increase of rain due to the influences of Typhoon Xangsane. People who are residing in risky areas must be aware of the hazards over the next three to four days. The waves in the Andaman Sea are around two to four meters high, and small boats are advised to stay ashore.
shing Canada's East Coast within days — although it's not expected to become a hurricane or directly threaten land.
10/2 -
Tropical depression 19W was 477 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 55 nmi WSW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Hurricane ISAAC was 235 nmi NE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
PHILIPPINES - A new storm (19W) entered the Philippine area of responsibility last night even as much of Metro Manila and Southern Luzon remained without power and water in typhoon Milenyo’s wake (Xangsane).
Tropical storm Xangsane batters Vietnam - Xangsane barreled across central Vietnam on Sunday, leaving at least six people dead, hundreds injured and tens of thousands of homes damaged. Heavy rains are expected to continue for several days and could unleash floods and landslides across the region.
CANADA - A tropical storm watch was in effect for eastern parts of the Canadian province of Newfoundland as Hurricane Isaac churned through the north Atlantic.
10/1 -
Hurricane ISAAC was 210 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 22 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Typhoon Xangsane, beginning its strike on Vietnam's central region early this morning, has killed two people and injured 70. The people, all from Da Nang city, the first locality in Vietnam being hit by the typhoon, were killed or injured after their houses collapsed due to strong winds and heavy rain. The typhoon, the 6th one striking Vietnam this year, damaged thousands of houses and schools, dozens of ships and boats, and disrupted electricity and telecommunication networks in some areas in the central coastal cities and provinces. Hundreds of people in the central region had been isolated since water levels around the areas they were in are rising. Water levels in many rivers are about three meters higher than the normal level.
Typhoon Xangsane's death toll climbed to 94 people in the Philippines as fierce winds and rains ran havoc across the northern and central areas. Most of the dead were drowned, buried by landslides, hit by fallen trees or electrocuted. Most of the additional fatalities were recovered in Cavite province, just outside the capital, where a mini-dam collapsed due to heavy rains and winds. Typhoon Xangsane is now on its way to Vietnam where thousands are evacuated and flights cancelled. Vietnamese TV showed footage of people building barricades with sandbags and digging tunnels to hide from the storm. "The typhoon is extremely powerful and is expected to affect a large area."
PHILIPPINES - A landslide on the slopes of Mount Makiling in Laguna killed 14 people on Friday. Earlier at least 18 people were reported killed in a flashflood that hit coastal towns in Quezon province.
TYPHOON “Milenyo” (international codename: Xangsane) has left not just a trail of destruction in Metro Manila, but also a number of questions for the country's meteorologists. Milenyo's intensity and direction were ABNORMAL for a tropical cyclone that had already hit a land mass before arriving in Metro Manila. "We are now studying what happened to Milenyo. It should have weakened when it hit land mass because it gets its strength from water. The land mass should have made an impact." PAGASA, which can predict a cyclone's position up to five days ahead, noted the abnormal behavior of Milenyo as early as Monday when it was still a tropical depression off Samar. Based on numerical models, Milenyo should have moved north towards the Bicol region before hitting Cagayan Valley on its way out. The Department of Science and Technology and PAGASAS are now studying interesting events that occurred in 2006, which they dubbed as "a YEAR OF SO MANY WEATHER ABNORMALITIES." Barely four months after coming out of La Niña, the Philippines is facing a developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific region. The arrival of the southwest monsoon has also been delayed and winds were pushed to Visayas and Mindanao instead of Luzon, which the monsoon normally affects.
Another tropical depression, Neneng, was spotted 2,000 kilometers east of the Visayas. It is expected to enter the PAR (Philippine area of responsibility ) today.
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9/29 -
Cyclone 05B was 260 nmi SW of Calcutta, India.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 198 nmi W of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm ISAAC was 484 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
PHILIPPINES - At least 16 people are now known to have died in the latest typhoon to hit the Philippines. 12 people are missing. Typhoon Xangsane, which packed winds of up to 130 km/h (80 mph), hit the northern island of Luzon before moving on to the capital Manila. It was THE STRONGEST TYPHOON TO HIT METRO MANILA DIRECTLY IN 11 YEARS.
VIETNAM - The typhoon is forecast by a Hawaiian hydrometeorology agency to arrive in central Vietnam on October 2.
THAILAND - The Royal Irrigation Department chief has ordered officials to keep draining water from submerged parts of eastern Bangkok into the Bang Pakong River and the Gulf of Thailand. The capital will also have to brace itself for Typhoon Xangsane - now battering the Philippines and moving towards the South China Sea - which will affect Thailand's weather on Sunday.
Tropical storm 05B - is forecast to strike India at about 00:00 GMT today.
Tropical storm Isaac formed in the central Atlantic on Thursday and its outer reaches could be lashing Canada's East Coast within days — although it's not expected to become a hurricane or directly threaten land.
Tropical storm 05B - is forecast to strike India at about 00:00 GMT today.
Tropical storm Isaac formed in the central Atlantic on Thursday and its outer reaches could be lashing Canada's East Coast within days — although it's not expected to become a hurricane or directly threaten land.
9/28 -
Tropical depression 09 was 605 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression 03C was 777 nmi ENE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 42 nmi SE of Manila, Philippines.
PHILIPPINES - TYPHOON Xangsane wrought destruction across the Philippines today causing widespread flooding, closing schools and financial markets, disrupting transport and leaving at least two people dead. Torrential rain caused major flooding throughout central and northern parts of the country as high winds uprooted trees and damaged buildings. In Manila flash floods turned streets into rivers and inundated homes in low-lying areas as storm drains overflowed. The coast guard, civil defense and local authorities have warned communities to be on alert for possible landslides and flash floods. The coastal province of Albay, about 320 kilometers (200 miles) southeast of Manila, felt the brunt of the typhoon. A regional highway was impassable because of uprooted trees, power cuts were reported in six provinces and a landslide cut off the road between Antique and Iloilo provinces on central Panay island. Half of the villages in one town in Antique province were under 1.5 meters (five feet) of water after the Dalanas River overflowed.
PHILIPPINES - Typhoon “Milenyo” (international codename: Xangsane) bore down on the Philippine island of Samar on Wednesday, leaving thousands of ferry passengers stranded as services were suspended. The tropical storm approaching the eastern Philippines intensified into a typhoon Wednesday as it pounded the coast with high winds and heavy rains. In the province of Antique, heavy rains caused the Dalanas River to overflow, flooding half of the coastal town of Barbaza, including Camansihan Island.
VIETNAM - A tropical storm hitting Vietnam's central region since last weekend has claimed three lives. Two students were drowned due to strong flooding, and a resident of Quang Nam province died on the spot when an electric pole fell onto the person. Rainwater is inundating many houses, gardens, crops and road sections. By Monday afternoon, local army forces mobilized nearly 4,000 officers and soldiers, and 229 ships and automobiles to fight against the storm, the fifth striking Vietnam so far this year.
9/27 -
Tropical depression 03C was 867 nmi E of Kwajalein, Marshall Island.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 162 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
9/26 -
Tropical storm XANGSANE was 256 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
VIETNAM - Three people were reported killed in central Vietnam on Monday as a tropical storm lashed the coast. Military units were on alert and fishing boats had been called to shore ahead of the storm, which was the first tropical cyclone to directly hit Vietnam this year.
9/25 -
Tropical depression 17W was 81 nmi NW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm HELENE was 497 nmi WNW of Lajes, Azores.
Cyclone MUKDA was 282 nmi S of Karachi, Pakistan.
INDIA - The threat of cyclonic storm Mukda over Saurashtra coast for last two days is over as it remained stationary and weakened into a deep depression according to the latest bulletin of the weather office. It will further weaken, the weather bureau said. All ports have been asked lower signals. However a heavy to very heavy rainfall warning has been issued, with strong winds reaching 50 to 70 Km/Hour likely along off Gujarat coast. The sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast.
BAGLADESH - Nearly 2,000 fishermen are still missing - Dozens of boats capsized in the storm and more than 500 fishing boats are still unaccounted for. Bangladesh's confirmed death toll from storms in the Bay of Bengal rose to 107 on Sunday as officials warned that thousands of fishermen remain missing and are feared drowned.
9/24 -
Tropical depression 17W was 34 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm HELENE was 497 nmi WNW of Lajes, Azores.
Typhoon YAGI was 371 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
The tropical cyclone (17W) was located some 240 km south-west of Porbandar in the Arabian Sea on Saturday evening and appeared heading slowly north-east. The Pakistani towns of Badin and Thatta in southern Sindh province were put on high alert and officials warned people to move away from the coast to safer ground. In India residents had a long and anxious night as they waited for ‘Mukda’ to hit the coast. The ‘quasi-stationary’ tropical cyclone ‘Mukda’ is likely to hit Porbandar, Kutch, Jamnagar, Junagadh and Diu. Heavy to very heavy rain accompanied with strong winds reaching 80 to 100 kmph apart from tidal waves have been forecast. The number nine signal, indicating ‘great danger’, has been sounded for the ports located in Gulf of Kutch and others on the coastal areas. The most worried is the fishing community. “We had received warnings quite early on Friday. Yet, around 200 of our boats are still feared to be at sea."
Yagi strengthened briefly into a super typhoon overnight Thursday before weakening Friday but picking up forward speed as it tracked northwest toward the Tokyo area. But Yagi was forecast to curve sharply northeast and churn well east of Tokyo. Once past Yokosuka and the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, Yagi is forecast to track rapidly east-northeast before gradually dissipating in the north Pacific.
The typhoon, packing winds of 208 kph, pummeled a set of islands southeast of Honshu, damaging buildings, leaving around 1,000 households without electricity and forcing 150 people to flee their homes. Typhoon Yagi was traveling north at a speed of 30 kph about 440 km east of Hachijojima Island as of 9 p.m. Saturday, after bringing high waves and strong wind and rain to the area overnight. Yagi was the MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON TO HIT THE ISLES IN 20 YEARS.
9/21 -
Hurricane HELENE was 449 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Cyclone MUKDA was 285 nmi S of Karachi, Pakistan.
Typhoon YAGI was 648 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon combined with another weather system before it neared Spain's northwest Galicia region and Portugal, forecasters said. The area reported winds as high as 70 mph (113 kph) Thursday morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane when it moved through the Azores Islands in the Atlantic. Authorities in the sparsely populated chain said they received no reports of major damage or injury. Hurricane Helene was downgraded to a Category 1 storm early Thursday as it remained over the open Atlantic well east of Bermuda. "Although Helene is expected to pass several hundred miles to the east of Bermuda, large ocean swells producing hazardous surf conditions could affect the area during the next couple of days."
Gordon was MOST UNUSUAL as it remained a category one storm while it headed into the Azores. Rarely does a hurricane stay a hurricane and cross that region of the far eastern Atlantic. Last year, Tropical Storm Vince was the first tropical cyclone in weather history to ever hit the Iberian Peninsula, which includes the nations of Spain and Portugal.
Pacific may be in for rough cyclone season - Cyclone season is approaching in the South Pacific and for many island nations it may be a rough one. "We are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific. We are seeing the development of a weak to moderate El Nino." Island nations to the east of the dateline, such as Fiji and Tonga, will be most heavily affected. It is unlikely any cyclones will reach New Zealand, although areas such as Gisborne and Northland may experience heavy rains and strong winds as a result of Pacific cyclones.
9/20 -
Tropical depression 02C was 747 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Cyclone 04A was 389 nmi W of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm GORDON was 297 nmi E of Lajes, Azores.
Hurricane HELENE was 469 nmi SE of Hamilton,