Wednesday, October 31, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 7.1 quake in PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
and a 5.6 quake in the SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA - the STRONGEST TO HIT THE BAY AREA SINCE 1989. The temblor came from the lesser-known Calaveras Fault. The quake produced no reports of serious injuries or damage. The USGS reported about a dozen aftershocks, the biggest with a preliminary magnitude of 2.1.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/30/07 -
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

TSUNAMI -
NORWAY - The government has allocated an extra NOK 10 million (USD 1.87 million) to monitor the unstable mountain areas along Storfjorden in Møre og Romsdal County. An avalanche along Storfjorden (the big fjord) would create a tsunami at least as large as the one that smashed into Tafjord in 1934, killing 40 people. Tafjord is deeper into the fjord than the mountain areas near Åknes, where a major avalanche is now feared. The mountain has been regularly monitored for the past 50 years and has begun to move with increasing speed, with cracks growing at the rate of several centimeter a year. In 2007 changes of up to 3 millimeters (.11 inch) a week have been registered. The Tafjord avalanche caused a tsunami that was 64 meters (210 feet) high. In 1905 a similar catastrophe struck Loen in Stryn, when Ramnefjellet unleashed a rock slide, and 61 people were killed. Those disasters were completely unexpected, but the monitoring system that will now be put in place should allow for 24-hour readiness, and the possibility to evacuate residents before the mountain gives way.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 676 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 182 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas.

Noel - at least 43 people were killed in floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Noel as it barrelled across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba in the Caribbean. The storm over the Dominican Republic threatened to cause more floods and mudslides across the region, already drenched by weeks of rainfall. The National Emergency Committee said nearly 20,000 people had to evacuate their homes across the country. In Cuba, 2000 people in the storm's path were evacuated. Tropical Storm Noel was expected to head back out to sea off the north coast of Cuba tonight or tomorrow. It was then expected to barrel over some of the Bahamian islands before heading north into the Atlantic Ocean, though forecasters said Noel's likely track would take it dangerously close to Florida's east coast.
Photos
CUBA - Double the average rainfall in October has already filled reservoirs in eastern Cuba to the brim and authorities worried about flooding.

OMAN is bracing itself for the possibility of another tropical cyclone but this time it could be of a lesser intensity and hit the south of the country. In June this year tropical Cyclone Gonu struck Oman's eastern coast, Muscat and the northern parts of the country, causing extensive damage and loss of lives, particularly due to flooding that followed torrential rain for three days. The winds then reached over 70 knots. In this cyclone, currently unnamed and known as tropical cyclone 05a, meteorological officials expect winds to reach around 40 knots. "At the moment the storm has winds of around 25 knots." The storm could hit the southern Omani coast around Thursday. "The storm is expected to bring with it thunder, heavy rain and subsequent flooding in the Dhofar region." (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Vicious storms with winds equal to a category three cyclone have lashed towns in central and southeast Queensland. The broad area of storm cells brought wind gusts of 180km per hour to Gayndah in the north Burnett region, where four houses were unroofed, tree branches brought down and fuel tanks tipped over properties. The area was also hit by heavy rain. The area's main business centre was also hard hit by another storm, with about 32 calls for help to the State Emergency Services. Wind speeds in Emerald hit 144km/h and hail the diameter of a 50 cent coin was reported. The storms follow wild weather earlier in the day across the southeast.
The WORST FLOODING IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS hit the Appila plains on Tuesday afternoon – devastating farmers already ravaged by five consecutive years of drought. About four inches of rain fell in The Hog's Head in a two-hour spate on Tuesday – when it reached Appila it washed fences away and filled others with debris. They lost acres of crops. While most of the water flowed away, it had left a lot of silt behind, along with ruining fences. Because damage was hit and miss throughout the Mid North it was expected to take a week before the full damage was known.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.
Albert Camus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/29/07 -
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.3 WESTERN TURKEY

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MAN-MADE PROBLEM - IRAQ's largest dam is in serious danger of collapse and up to 500,000 people could die if it does, an alarming US assessment has found. US officials concluded that Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, could be left under almost 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad could be under 4.5 metres. "The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability." A U.S. project to strengthen the dam has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement. The dam, built in the early 1980s, has major structural problems because it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water. Millions of tonnes of material have been applied to the dam wall to shore it up since then, but US officials say the structure still represents a very significant threat.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Lava flowing from a new vent on Kilauea's eastern flank is now feeding into a lava tube that could allow it to flow farther and faster. Geologists say the formation of lava tubes can be worrisome because they insulate the lava, which has advanced 1.5 miles from the end of the open lava channel. But Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's daily assessment maintains that there's no immediate threat. That means thousands of lower Puna residents currently remain at a safe distance. There needs to be a steady supply of lava for it to travel a long distance, but the level of the channel has fluctuated over time. Kilauea has been erupting for 24 years. On July 21, a new outbreak of lava occurred to the east of Puu Oo vent. It was the first time lava erupted in the area outside Hawaii Volcanoes National Park since 1992.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 612 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 82 nmi NNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - At least 13 people have been killed in flooding in the Dominican Republic following torrential rains dumped by Tropical Storm Noel. The deaths were reported in the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, and along the south coast. It is feared the death toll will rise, with several others reported missing. The storm was expected to pour 25-50cm (10-20in) of rain on the Dominican Republic and neighbouring Haiti. By early Monday evening (2100 GMT) the centre of the storm had passed and was heading north-west, past the eastern tip of Cuba towards the Bahamas. However, on the island of Hispaniola - divided between the Dominican Republic and Haiti - rain continued to fall, forcing river levels higher. Several bridges were reported to have collapsed, cutting off communities. Hundreds of people were being evacuated, amid fears of flash floods and landslides. Farmers have suffered big losses and numerous areas have lost power. While there were not as yet any reports of fatalities from Haiti, the country often suffers worse from flooding than its neighbour because so much of it has been deforested. The town of Cabaret, north of the capital Port-au-Prince was being evacuated. "It's very serious now. It's moving very slowly and dropping a lot of rain."

A tropical storm watch is not being issued for SE Florida at this time. High wind watches are already in effect for several counties due to the expectation of an increasing pressure gradient produced by the combination of a strong surface high building over the eastern U.S. and the approach of Noel. A tropical storm watch may still be required for SE Florida early today, depending on the forecast track and wind radii of the tropical storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAWI - Meteorologists in Malawi are warning of possible flooding during the rainy season which runs from November to March. The heavy rains would be caused by a weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean called La Niña. It’s defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures that affect global weather patterns, with one result being increased moisture in southern Africa. Some doubt the accuracy of the forecast – saying past predictions have been wrong.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

OHIO - 'Confused' trees sprouting buds - extreme conditions have not only weakened trees, they have confused them. Several days of soaking rains and mild temperatures in the past week here have prompted some trees to bloom. The reason actually traces back to this summer's drought. Trees reacted to the hot, dry weather - the area got just over five inches of rain total for all of May, June, July and August, a four-period that recorded 39 days of 90 degrees or hotter - by going dormant, just as they do in the winter. Now, the weather of the last week has triggered a spring-like reawakening in some trees. Flowering fruit trees, like cherry, crab apple and pear, are especially susceptible to blooming now. "It was almost like spring time again." The same thing is happening to trees in Mississippi. Not all trees blooming early will die. Older trees that have established root systems generally fare better during weather-related trials. But they likely will have lower bloom counts next spring.

NEW YORK - A mild autumn is keeping trees greener longer - New York City's greenest borough is a lot less colorful this year. Missing are the blood reds, golden yellows and bright oranges that normally dominate autumn. Lingering summer-like weather preserved a mostly green scene among tens of thousands of Staten Island trees, delaying by two to three weeks the fall foliage colors that normally appear here in late October. Temperatures soaring into the 70s and 80s for much of this month, coupled with warmer-than-normal nights and a late-summer drought, have kept the leaves green longer than normal. "This warm weather, it's just not normal." Besides the delay in the appearance of fall colors, their intensity will be less dramatic when they change color. The UNUSUALLY warm and dry weather in the last couple of months has been "tricking" trees into thinking it's still August or September. "All this additional sunshine is pretty much keeping the leaves green on the trees. This UNUSUAL warm weather has fooled a lot of these trees." The lack of rain - 2.4 inches below normal in September and below normal for most of October - has caused many branches to lose moisture and leaves to crumple up and fall off before even changing color. The unusual fall weather is not just affecting trees and leaf-peepers. Fall planting season, which runs from Oct. 15 to Dec. 15, is being delayed because the soil is so dry and the air so warm.

PENNSYLVANIA - Lancaster County residents have sweated their way through what will be THE WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD, a month when two days in the 90s set records for high temperatures. When all is said and done, even with the cooler weather predicted for this week, this month's average temperature will be about 9 degrees above normal, shattering the record of the previously warmest October in 1964. By this time of year, their first frost usually happened two weeks ago. But, with Halloween just days away, roses and begonias still are blooming. The summery fall has been caused by the persistence of a Bermuda high pattern, which leads to warm, dry weather. Also credit the La Nina weather pattern, a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that creates milder and drier weather in the Northeast. The delayed fall has followed the curious pattern of this year's seasons. Winter started things off by arriving late, with the first 1-inch snow not falling until Feb. 2. Snow continued to fall into March, and April was 3 degrees chillier, making for a later start to spring as well. Summer also took its own sweet time in arriving, delayed by a cool June. The absence of fall has been noted by local gardeners. Clematis are blooming, it normally blooms in the spring. "Things are sort of confused." Grass still is growing and outdoor flower containers still look good.

NEW JERSEY - October is usually the start of cool, crisp days, but instead the hot weather stayed on, creating extremely warm and wet conditions. The average monthly temperature as of Sunday was 66.4 degrees, about 10.7 degrees higher than normal. Atlantic City HIT A RECORD 90 degrees Oct. 7 and 89 degrees Oct. 8. The total amount of rainfall also was higher than normal, about 4.76 inches, 2.3 inches above normal. The cause for the uncommon warmth was a strong warm air front that was stuck over the eastern part of the country. "Low (temperature air) pressures would approach, but it would get bumped away. ... So it stayed warmer longer." The ocean also stayed warmer than normal, in the lower 60s instead of the upper 50s, as a result of the high air temperature. It was VERY UNUSUAL for the hot air ridge to stay in that pattern. The warm patterns impacted the fall fish migration. Last weekend, a triggerfish was caught, a species that is normally found in warm, tropical waters. The first fall frosts usually dust the region around Oct. 15 on the mainland and a few weeks later on the shoreline. This season, there hasn't been a deep freeze yet, and the warmth prolonged the harvest season for some vegetables and fruits. Trees and lawns were stressed by the heat and instead of staying bright green, some grasses and leaves turned brown this month. With the recent heavy rains, the lawns and trees have reverted to green. "It's certainly an UNUSUAL fall. I haven't seen it this warm, not the 70s and 80s."

CANADA - Frost is missing in action, SETTING A RECORD for its absence from the London region. "Not in my recollection have I seen a season of this length." Environment Canada data shows the London area has already experienced ONE OF THE LONGEST GROWING SEASONS ON RECORD and there was no sign of frost until Monday. Although it varies from year to year, London usually has its last frost day in the spring on May 8 and its first frost in the fall on Oct. 5, working out to an average of 149 frost-free days. But this year, the last frost to hit London was on April 14, three weeks ahead of the average date. And although the temperature dipped toward the freezing mark Sept. 16 and Oct. 12, it never crossed the line to bring the growing and lawn-cutting season to its usual frosty end. By Thursday, the 25th, the area had 194 frost-free days and counting. Over the past century, the climate in Southwestern Ontario has warmed by 0.5 degrees C, enough to lengthen the frost-free season by more than 18 days since the 1940s. That has helped farmers and home gardeners, who have faced less risk of losing their crops before they mature. But agriculture experts and climatologists warn the longer season without freezing temperatures has the potential for both good and bad. "It is not necessarily a good news story . . . how it will play out is still guesswork." Though the longer season may benefit crops, it means the climate is becoming less stable. There is the possibility of extreme weather events, droughts and ground-level ozone. "It may extend the smog season quite a bit, too." The longer growing season lessens the risk of farmers losing their crops, but it is unpredictable. If farmers knew ahead of time it was going to be a long season, they could plant higher-yielding varieties that take longer to mature. But they don't know. And there has to be the right conditions to go with the warmth, such as adequate rainfall. A few farmers gamble each year and double-crop, planting beans, for instance, after they take their wheat crop in July. This year those farmers lost because it didn't rain. The longer growing season when it is warm also increases the potential for insect damage. Another downside is with crops such as pumpkins that ripen early. It is then a challenge to keep them in good shape until Halloween.

Monday, October 29, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
He who strikes the first blow admits he's lost the argument.
Chinese Proverb

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/28/07 -
None 5.0 or higher.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
The Minoans created extraordinary artifacts for hundreds of years, revealing an aesthetic sensibility that influences Western civilization to this day. Then they simply disappeared. Scholars are seeking answers to one of the great mysteries of the ancient world: What happened to the Minoans of Crete, who controlled a thriving Mediterranean trade network from around 2,200-1,450 BC? NOVA reports on new evidence that a massive tsunami struck the Bronze Age society 3,500 years ago, destabilizing the culture to such a degree that social chaos brought about its ultimate destruction. “It was clear that after the ash from the Thera volcano had dusted the town, a gigantic tsunami hit Palaikastro Bay.” The tidal wave was “terrifyingly destructive,” perhaps larger than the Indian Ocean tsunami that hit Banda Aceh in 2004. A revised computer model now suggests that the wave generated by the Thera eruption was 10 times larger, wider, longer than originally estimated. When it hit Palaikastro, it may have been around 15 meters high.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 599 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 75 nmi S of Port Au Prince, Haiti.

Officials in Haiti feared flash floods would hit impoverished areas of the nation early today, as Tropical Storm Noel lashed the country with heavy rains. Noel, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, was projected to reach Haiti and the Dominican Republic — which share the island of Hispaniola — this morning before heading on toward Cuba. The strengthening Caribbean storm, which formed into a tropical storm Sunday, poses a serious threat to Haiti, where floods killed at least 37 earlier this month. Noel had sustained winds of about 50 mph (80 kph) and its outer bands were dumping rain over Hispaniola overnight. The meandering storm was spinning north-northwest at roughly 6 mph (10 kph), on a projected track that would bring its center near the southeastern peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm warning was issued for the entire Haitian coastline and parts of neighboring Dominican Republic's southern coast. Noel, with tropical storm force winds fanning 140 miles (225 kilometers) from its center, could drop 10 to 20 inches (25-50 centimeters) of water on Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba and Jamaica. Dominican authorities said at least 600 people had been evacuated as the storm touched off landslides, flooded rivers and pushed storm surges onto Santo Domingo's seaside boulevard. Swollen rivers also forced evacuations in Cabaret, a town north of Port-au-Prince where floods killed at least 23 people earlier this month. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch were issued for southeastern parts of Cuba, including the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay.
Florida Division of Emergency Management officials cautioned that the forecast track was highly uncertain due to varying environmental conditions surrounding the storm and advised residents and visitors to south Florida and the Key to monitor future forecasts. Hurricane experts at Colorado State University are forecasting a very active end to the 2007 hurricane season. In an updated forecast released on Oct. 2, they call for four named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane to form during the months of October and November. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concur that the end of the season could be active. (see the link for a 2007 hurricane season summary, so far)

INDIA - A cyclone is expected to make landfall near the coastal Kavali area in Andhra Pradesh this afternoon. Yesterday, the weather office said the cyclone was 200 kilometers southeast of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone is expected to bring more rain and strong winds in Chennai and surrounding areas. Authorities have ordered schools and colleges to close today. Heavy showers have been lashing Chennai and neighbouring areas for two days leaving the roads flooded. Chennai was a victim of continuous rainfall on Sunday. What's worse, there is no respite at least for the next two days - that's according to the Met department. Fatalities in the showers have risen to 25. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - At least five people were killed in the series of landslides caused by heavy rainfall on Saturday, in the province of Catanduanes, in the eastern Philippines, officials said on Sunday. Several provinces in Catanduanes experienced landslides, which blocked some roads in the area. The heavy rainfall was caused by a Pacific Ocean low pressure area, which was about 25 miles north of Catanduanes province.

Sunday, October 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When anger rises, think of the consequences.
Confucius

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/27/07 -
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 ECUADOR
5.2 FIJI REGION
5.1 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.1 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
10/26/07 -
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.4 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.4 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR

PAKISTAN - A girl was killed and 12 villagers injured when a mild intensity earthquake hit Gangche district’s Qundus village in the Baltistan region late on Friday. Tremors were felt at around 12am on Friday, intermittent tremors continued till 4am on Saturday. At least 410 houses in five villages had been partially damaged and 12 villagers were injured. All roads leading to the villages were damaged in the quake. The villagers are living in the open in below zero temperatures and are reluctant to return to their homes. The intensity of quake was 5.2 on the richter scale and its centre was in Azad Kashmir.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
VIETNAM - Ho Chi Minh City will see RECORD HIGH TIDES within the next few days and can expect widespread flooding if the predicted heavy rains appear at the same time. The Southern Hydrometeorology Station says the Saigon and Dong Nai rivers will peak between Friday and Monday and reach 1.49 meters at Phu An on Sunday. As large volumes of water are released from the dams, outlying areas of the city should experience flooding during this period. The swollen waters could even breach embankments. In the already devastated central region, river levels in Binh Dinh, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, Quang Ngai and Phu Yen reached alarming levels on Thursday, and the rivers in Quang Nam, Ninh Thuan and Gia Lai were continuing to rise. Heavy rain in Khanh Hoa put many roads 30 centimeters underwater and disrupted traffic severely. The storms also caused landslides in Da Lat in the highlands and generated twisters in Quang Nam farther up the coast. Heavy flooding has been hitting all parts of the country since last month, making hundreds of families homeless and inundating large areas of agricultural land.



VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - THIRD VOLCANO BECOMES ACTIVE - ANAK KRAKATOA - The Indonesian volcano known as the "Child of Krakatoa" has been spewing ash and smoke, prompting warnings of a possible eruption. The mountain in the Sunda Strait, 130 kilometres west of Jakarta, formed after the giant Krakatoa eruption of 1883 that killed tens of thousands of people and was the largest explosion in recorded history. "Activity at Anak Krakatoa increased yesterday [Friday] and there were several small eruptions. We have upgraded the alert level to the second highest." Anak Krakatoa is the third volcano to become active in recent weeks in Indonesia, a sprawling country of more than 17,000 islands. Indonesia has about 150 volcanoes. Krakatoa's massive 1883 blast, heard nearly 3,200 kilometres away in Australia, sent pyroclastic surges of gas and burning ash which, combined with a tsunami, wiped out 165 villages and killed at least 36,417 people. It destroyed two-thirds of the island of Krakatoa between Java and Sumatra.
Krakatau normally produces five tremors per hour. From Oct. 24 to 26, experts detected 20 tremors an hour. The volcano also spewed white-grey smoke plumes 80 to 200 meters high. Lava flow is yet to be seen so the status is not yet critical. The last time Krakatau was put on alert status was in 2000, when it emitted lava.

INDONESIA - MOUNT KELUT - A scientist warned on Wednesday that all indications pointed to the imminent eruption of Mount Kelut volcano on the Indonesian island of Java, despite few obvious signs of activity. Mount Kelut was put on high alert on October 16, triggering efforts to evacuate about 130,000 people living within 10 kilometres (six miles) of its crater. The mountain has been quiet for the past few days, with no drastic changes in the frequency and magnitude of volcanic and tectonic quakes affecting the area. The signs leading to an eruption usually follow the same pattern. "The trend is that the centers of the shallow volcanic quakes are moving closer and closer to the surface, and this is the normal pattern prior to an eruption. "They (the quake centers) are now less than one kilometre beneath the crater's floor but the mountain will only erupt when these are accompanied by shallow quakes of large amplitude and long, continuous tremors." Some villagers said they would not evacuate until told to do so by the 64-year-old spiritual leader. Geologists have said they expect an eruption of Kelut would lead to "heat clouds," searing gasses and volcanic debris rushing down the slopes. Kelud's temperature continued to rise on Friday, an indication that an eruption is imminent.

INDONESIA - MOUNT SOPUTAN - The erupting volcano on Indonesia's Sulawesi island began spewing hot lava on Friday, a day after shooting ash some 1,500m into the air, an official said, although nearby villages were still not being ordered to evacuate. Mount Soputan volcano, which lies in North Sulawesi province, likely was producing a small lava flow, but authorities were unable to spot it because the crater remained covered by clouds. Soputan has been at a Level 3 alert since its last eruption in December 2006 due to its "short duration activity" - meaning it only experiences tremors for short periods before erupting, as was the case on Thursday morning. A Level 4 alert is only given when an active volcano is threatening the safety of people living nearby, but the villages closest to Soputan are eight kilometres away. "Historically, the lava trails from this mountain are a maximum of three kilometres."

New evidence dug from the shores of the Bay of Bengal supports the radical idea that it was a series of monumental volcanic eruptions that wiped out the dinosaurs, not a meteor impact in the Gulf of Mexico.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 636 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical depression 16 was 137 nmi SSW of Barahona, Dominican Republic.

JAPAN - Typhoon Faxai, packing winds of up to 144km/h, was churning off Japan's main island in the Pacific Ocean, heading for the Tokyo region on Saturday. Typhoon Faxai was located 300km south of Tokyo and was moving northeast at 85km/h. "Faxai" is expected to bring strong winds, the national weather agency said, warning of heavy rain and possible landslides in eastern Japan. The typhoon is expected to leave Japan by early Monday. Earlier this month, Typhoon Fitow hit eastern and northern Japan, killing at least two people and injuring 82 others.

A tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean was pelting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti with rains and gusty winds on Friday. The area of low pressure remains disorganized and upper level winds currently are not favorable for development. However, it's possible the system could strengthen as it moves into the western Caribbean. Computer models are in disagreement where the area might ultimately go, as some point it toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the Gulf of Mexico, while others indicate it might curve northeast back out to sea. At 5:30 p.m. on Friday, the disturbance was centered about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo, in the Dominican Republic, moving west, southwest at about 15 to 20 mph. The hurricane center also was monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, saying there currently are no signs of development.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - At least 30 people have died and 100 been injured in flooding in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Heavy rain caused waterways to burst their banks, washing away roads and bridges and knocking down power lines. Some of the victims were electrocuted, others drowned or were crushed when their homes collapsed. Officials said the number of people killed could rise as relief workers reach districts cut off by the floods. The torrential rain began falling late on Thursday and continued until Friday morning. A particularly heavy rainy season across a broad stretch of Africa since June has led to the worst floods in 30 years. The latest floods in the DR Congo brings the number killed to more than 400. Two million people across the continent have been affected, with many requiring shelter and food aid.

AUSTRALIA - A FREAK tornado with winds up to 150 kmh that tore through a northern NSW village was ONE OF THE RAREST WEATHER EVENTS TO HAPPEN IN A POPULATED AREA OF AUSTRALIA. The tornado rampaged through the village of Dunoon after clipping nearby Lismore, causing millions of dollars in damage. Destructive twisters are more commonly associated with the Midwest of the United States, and RARELY seen by Australians. The tornado came out of the bottom of a thunderstorm about 4pm on Friday. Large hailstones and destructive winds were battering Dunoon, Lismore, Byron Bay and Mullumbimby.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Residents hit by the deadly California wildfires have been warned to beware of extremely hazardous air quality. Residents in five southern counties were urged to stay indoors due to pollution levels that are three times higher than normal. The fires dumped into the atmosphere the equivalent greenhouse gas emissions that 440,000 cars would emit over a one year period. Officials confirmed 640,000 people had fled their homes, the biggest mass evacuation in California's history. At least 14 people died as a result of the fires. Damage in San Diego county alone is estimated at about $1bn (£487m), with nearly 800 sq miles (2,072 sq km) of land scorched. At least 1,800 homes and other buildings have been destroyed. About 23,000 homes are still at risk from five major fires across three counties but many blazes have now been contained. The central San Bernardino Mountains, parts of the San Bernardino Valley and areas in Orange and Riverside Counties are badly affected. Satellite photographs revealed thick smoke over much of southern California. "This is still a very fluid situation that's going to go on for a number of days."

A United Nations expert has condemned the growing use of crops to produce biofuels as a crime against humanity. He fears biofuels will bring more hunger. The growth in the production of biofuels has helped to push the price of some crops to record levels. He complained of the ill-conceived dash to convert foodstuffs such as maize and sugar into fuel, which created a recipe for disaster. It was, he said, a crime against humanity to divert arable land to the production of crops which are then burned for fuel. He called for a five-year ban on the practice. Within that time, technological advances should enable the use of agricultural waste such as corn cobs and banana leaves, rather than crops themselves, to produce fuel.

SPACE WEATHER -
SOUTH DAKOTA - 10/25/07 - A large object was seen falling in the southeast sky Thursday morning, leading to speculation among some that it was a meteor. Law officers in the Sioux Falls area spotted the brilliant object falling to Earth at about 7:50 a.m. It left a wide trail as it descended. Though it wasn't known what the object was, meteor activity right now is high. A major shower (the Orionids) is active most of the month along with several minor showers, reaching maximum activity on Oct. 21. The Orionids are actually trail debris left over from Haley's Comet. Orionids meteors are visible from many parts of the country.
In the Puget Sound region of Washington this week, a motorist reported seeing a streak of light, then a flash, at 6:30 in the morning, according to a report from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Comet Holmes - Astronomers around the world agree, Comet 17P/Holmes is ONE OF THE STRANGEST THINGS EVER TO EXPLODE IN THE NIGHT SKY. It's a comet, yet it looks like a planet with a golden core and a green atmosphere. Comet Holmes shocked sky watchers with a spectacular eruption, brightening almost a million-fold from 17th to 2.5th magnitude in a matter of hours. The comet is now visible to the naked eye - even from light polluted cities - high in the northern sky after sunset. The golden hue of Holmes' core is probably the color of sunlight scattered by comet dust, while the green fringe likely signifies an atmosphere rich in diatomic carbon and cyanogen (substances found in many green comets). There are reports that the fuzzball is expanding and taking on a lopsided shape - possibly the first signs of a tail. Exploding Comet 17P/Holmes is now larger than Jupiter. The diaphanous and curiously spherical cloud surrounding the comet's core is now large enough to swallow the King of Planets! It's gotten so big, in fact, that many observers say they can see it without a telescope.

Friday, October 26, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What another would have done as well as you, do not do it.
What another would have said as well as you, do not say it.
What another would have written as well, do not write it.
Be faithful to that which exists nowhere but in yourself -
and thus make yourself indispensible.
Andre Gide

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/25/07 -
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -
CANADA - Intense volcanic activity appears to be behind hundreds of tremors in British Columbia's Central Interior, but the chance of a volcanic eruption is minimal, experts say. Attention was drawn to an area about 100 kilometres west of Quesnel when a series of micro-quakes reaching a magnitude of 2.7 were recorded over a number of days early in October. A group of experts agree that the micro-quakes were likely caused by magma, or liquid rock, deep in the Earth's crust in the region around the Nazko Cone, a small dormant volcano west of Quesnel. They said the intensity has levelled off to an ongoing series of micro-quakes — about 50 to 60 per day — with a magnitude of 1.0 to 1.5, but that the risk of a volcanic eruption remained low. The Nazko Cone is considered to be the easternmost volcano in the Anahim Volcanic Belt, a 600-kilometre-long line of volcanic activity that runs from the northern tip of Vancouver Island to the Quesnel area.

ITALY - New Zealand and American scientists will join Italian colleagues next week for the first-ever systematic investigation of submarine hydrothermal activity in the Mediterranean Sea. Over the past nine years they have found up to 60% of the 90 submarine volcanoes between the Bay of Plenty and Tonga are hydrothermally active. This means hot mineral-rich fluids are being expelled into the sea at about 55 of the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc. In addition, metal-rich mineral deposits and communities of unusual marine life occur at many of these seafloor vents. The focus in the Mediterranean is the Aeolian Arc, a near-circular chain of about a dozen submarine volcanoes north of Sicily. The project will shed light on the area’s marine geology, which is not well understood. The area has a rich volcanic history and is known as the cradle of volcanology. The cluster of volcanoes located around the Tyrrhenian Sea – Vesuvius, Etna and Stromboli – have been producing spectacular and destructive eruptions for thousands of years. Mt Etna in Sicily, the largest and most active volcano in Europe, is presently erupting. Stromboli is one of the most active volcanoes on Earth and has been in nearly continuous eruption for about 2000 years. It has given its name to a particular type of eruption – a strombolian eruption. Ancient seafarers knew it as the ‘torch of the Mediterranean’.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FAXAI was 229 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Wednesday’s ‘low’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Tamil Nadu spun westwards to cross the extreme south peninsula and emerged into the warmer waters of southeast Arabian Sea on Thursday. An India Meteorological Department update said that the system is likely to become marked in the next two days. This is the very system that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts bets will become a strong tropical cyclone. For the third successive day, the ECMWF persisted with the cyclone forecast, signalling increasing levels of confidence about the eventuality. The warm waters in the basin will fuel the system engine, while the upper-level anticyclone over north India will fan bands of northeasterlies across to turn as helpful northerlies over the west Arabian Sea. Current meteorological analysis suggests that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the south peninsula, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep would sustain for three more days. Meanwhile, a fresh ‘low’ is shown to break out over the southeast Bay of Bengal around Saturday. This will bring a fresh pulse of heavy showers over the south peninsula from Monday next. The causative system will gradually intensify into a depression and is shown to barrel into the north Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast. This part of the southeast coast, including Chennai, has remained out of bounds for the rampaging rain bands towards the south and extreme south. This is because cyclonic circulations and ‘lows’ from the Bay have traversed a southerly track pre-determined by the rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Only the stronger ones can hope to break out and carry the ITCZ along in a north-northwest direction targeting the north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. Meanwhile, the La Nina has intensified over the equatorial Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are expected to rule the South China Sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
KENTUCKY - Louisville had its HEAVIEST TWO-DAY OCTOBER RAINFALL ON RECORD Monday and Tuesday.

MINNESOTA - the University of Minnesota's St. Paul campus reported that the first 16 days of October were THE CLOUDIEST STRETCH FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR IN 45 YEARS that the observatory has been measuring solar radiation, measuring less than three-quarters of average. The 18.91 inches of rain that fell in the Twin Cities during August, September and October SET A RECORD FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD - well before October ends. The drought has been retreating, particularly in the past week, having largely disappeared along the Canadian border and the North Shore of Lake Superior. It continues to hang on stubbornly in a pocket of central Minnesota, near Wadena County. That news is good for the state's farmers, already looking toward next year's growing season, though the recent rains came too late to have much effect on this year's crops. An exceptionally wet early fall says precisely nothing about the coming winter. "The pattern could break any day now, or it could hang around awhile."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - US border patrol agents discovered four charred bodies in rugged mountains near the Mexican border, bringing the probable death toll from California's wildfires to 12, even as firefighters gained the upper hand in their five-day battle.

TEXAS - A top climate scientist warned Wednesday that Texas faces a dual threat from floods and drought if global warming is left unchecked. Predictions made two decades ago about the effects of a warming world are now beginning to come true. "Texas is in the line of fire for double-barreled climate impacts. What we said in the 1980s, and is beginning to come true now, is that both ends of the hydrological cycle get intensified by global warming." A warmer climate increases evaporation. It both sucks moisture from the ground, intensifying drought, and increases atmospheric humidity, which causes more rain to fall during extreme events. It remains possible — and not entirely painful — for nations to tackle global warming. The most important step would be to prohibit the construction of coal-fired power plants until technology is developed to capture carbon dioxide produced during the coal-burning process. Coal remains a popular energy source with electricity providers, because it is a cheap source of power and the United States has abundant supplies. However, coal burning is also the worst producer of the greenhouse gases that, scientists say, are causing the planet to warm. A second step would be to gradually adopt a fee for carbon dioxide emissions. Although this would raise the price of energy, it would spur companies to develop alternative energy sources such as wind and solar.

BURKINA FASO - After deadly floods that hit Burkina Faso weeks ago, the impoverished west African country faces a drought caused by an early and abrupt end to the rainy season. Fears run high that the weak rains will have a knock-on effect on food prices and would inevitably affect the next cotton harvests. The meteorological services bureau reported a "premature end" to the rains in September when crops were beginning to flower in the west, southwest and the south of the country and just before they matured in the northern parts of the country. "Starting from the second half of September, we have registered a drastic drop in the intensity of the rains."

CANADA - Wednesday was THE WARMEST DAY ON RECORD for October 24th in a total of 6 Saskatchewan centres.

The forecast is for increasingly volatile and unpredictable weather patterns "that are UNPRECEDENTED since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Our experiential framework doesn't encompass these cataclysmic events. We just assume the future will echo the past. The world is changing. Extremely rapidly. All the management rules have been built around the assumption of a stationary climate. For the foreseeable future, for generations to come, change is what we need to manage, not the status quo." In the U.S., by noon Wednesday, more than 666 square miles of the Southern California tinderbox - Los Angeles went 150 consecutive days this year without rain - had been charcoaled. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is at its LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS. And drought continues to devastate the southeast, particularly in Alabama and Georgia, where the folks at Coca-Cola are increasingly "concerned" about sustaining their bottling operation. Will we do better, before water shortages and the climate crisis swallow us whole? Because the dry subtropic zone is expanding, pushing the jet stream and western Oregon's traditional drizzle zone farther north, the Northwest may experience alternating decades of dampness and drought that wreak havoc on the landscape. And as we reach the limits of available water, available food and available space, the conflicts between the haves and have-nots will turn brutal. The 2002 fish kill in the Klamath River "is just the tip of the iceberg." "We can continue to worship before the altar of the status quo or get off our knees and begin wrestling with this runaway change. We can bridle the beast or be stampeded by it, but we can no longer pretend the horse hasn't left the barn."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Continuing destruction of the natural world is affecting the health, wealth and well-being of people around the globe, according to a major UN report. The Global Environment Outlook says most trends are going the wrong way. It lists degradation of farmland, loss of forest cover, pollution, dwindling fresh water supplies and overfishing among society's environmental ills. There is a "remarkable lack of urgency" to reverse these trends. "There continue to be persistent and intractable problems unresolved and unaddressed. This assault on the global environment risks undermining the many advances human society has made. Past issues remain and new ones are emerging, from the rapid rise of oxygen 'dead zones' in the oceans to the resurgence of new and old diseases linked in part with environmental degradation." The well-being of millions of people in the developing world is put at risk by failure to remedy problems which have been tackled in richer societies. "This assault on the global environment risks undermining the many advances human society has made in recent decades. It is undercutting our fight against poverty. It could even come to jeopardise international peace and security."

Thursday, October 25, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished;
and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in its way.
Henry David Thoreau

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/24/07 -
5.1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
7.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 CENTRAL PERU

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Soputan volcano on the northern tip of Indonesia's Sulawesi island has erupted, throwing columns of ash 1,000 meters (3,300 ft) into the air. The eruption did not appear to pose an immediate threat to residents, although ash had reached the nearest town. "From the data that we have, it is only spraying ash without other volcanic material." A few days ago the volcano was calm. The nearest village to Soputan, 2,175 km (1,351 miles) northeast of the capital Jakarta, is located 11 km from its crater. In August, Soputan also spewed ash and rocks. A local official said that no evacuation had been ordered. Last week, authorities evacuated more than 100,000 residents living within a 10-km (6-mile) zone around Mount Kelud volcano in eastern Java after warning it was liable to erupt.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

A monsoon ‘low’ has popped up over the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka, even as the India Meteorological Department forecast the formation of a successor system over the southeast Bay around Saturday. The prevailing ‘low’ is tipped to move north-northwest, cross the peninsula and slither into the southeast Arabian Sea where it will resuscitate the remnants of a cyclonic circulation. By the weekend, the combined entity will undergo intensification first into a depression. According to international weather models, the system will feed on the warm seawaters in the east and central Arabian Sea to power its way into the status of a likely tropical cyclone. The helpful wind circulation associated with the anticyclone will help it steer across in a north-northwest direction and slam into the Oman coast in due course. [following the path Cyclone Gomu took earlier this year.] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been consistently showing a strong system (likely a named tropical cyclone) treading close to southern Oman around October 30th. Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal continues to witness convective forcing from across the territorial waters with a moisture pipeline extending from the South China Sea and the Indonesia Sea. The ‘low’ expected to break out over the southeast Bay (Andaman Sea) holds the promise of setting up a strong system in the Bay. Given the considerable distance that it would need to traverse in a decidedly north-northwest direction, the system could set up a monsoon depression, the first of the season in the Bay basin. Its behaviour will be closely watched for signs of intensification into a still stronger system. The consensus forecast is for a strong `low’ (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slightly slower to form than earlier thought. The prevailing ‘low’ in the southwest Bay will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are also likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala during the same period. The Karaikal-Nagapattinam-Vedaranniyam belt in Tamil Nadu was battered by punishing rains as the ‘low’ became entrenched around the area of genesis on Tuesday. Puducherry also received widespread rain overnight. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast for most places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north interior Karnataka.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
GULF OF MEXICO - At least 10 people died after two oil platforms crashed into each other in high winds in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a gas leak that forced the evacuation of all workers in the area. 58 of 81 Pemex employees and contract workers on the oil rig had been rescued, including five sailors taking part in the rescue operation. Pemex did not say what had happened to the other people unaccounted for, but there were eight helicopters and four ships from the Mexican navy searching the area for survivors. The accident occurred late on Tuesday amid high winds and heavy seas when the two platforms crashed into each other. "Due to wind gusts of up to 130km/h and waves of 6m-8m ... the Usumacinta drilling platform struck the valve train of Kab-101 platform. Weather conditions in the are have made it impossible to reach an emergency life boat that has already been spotted and which we presume could be carrying the staff that was working on the platforms." The crash triggered some fires around the damaged platforms.

COSTA RICA - Since 12 October, Costa Rica has been affected by various atmospheric disturbances such as the passing of a tropical wave and a direct influence of a low pressure system. These events have provoked intense and continuous rain in the Pacific coast area and the central valley causing floods in the communities of the Brunca, Huetar Norte, Los Santos, Central Pacific and Chorotega regions. The rains are still affecting the entire country. The National Meteorology Institute forecasts strong to moderate rain throughout the entire Pacific slope.

COLUMBIA - A total of 43,200 people have been affected in October by intense rains affecting almost all Colombia in the winter season which started this month. Heavy rains have caused ravages in 39 municipalities in 18 of the 32 Colombian departments. The main affectations are due to floods that have affected hundreds of houses and cultivation areas, landslides, and overflowing of rivers and streams. The Institute of Meteorology and Environment Studies warned that intense rains would affect the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions of Colombia up to Saturday. Some zones at the center of Colombia would be affected with electric storms and some other things.

BRAZIL - Heavy rain wreaked havoc in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday, causing a mudslide that cut off the main tunnel linking the Brazilian city's north and south. An average of 180,000 vehicles go through the Reboucas Tunnel every day and its closing caused huge traffic jams across the city. Five mudslides since late Tuesday had left some 5,000 tonnes of debris in tunnels and there was a risk of more collapses. The Reboucas Tunnel, more than 2 kilometres long, could be closed for up to a week. Power was cut off in some neighbourhoods, causing further traffic jams as traffic lights did not work.

THAILAND - No districts were left unaffected when more than 10,000 houses were damaged yesterday by floods which swept across most of Chumphon province. An active low pressure trough just above the southern region caused the heavy rainfall. Four lanes of highway 41 in Thung Tako district were covered by 20-40 centimetres of water yesterday morning, bringing traffic to a standstill. In the Central province of Sing Buri, already reeling from earlier floods, more than 591 monks in 39 temples in In Buri, Muang, and Phrom Buri districts are facing food shortages after being left stranded by high floodwaters and a lack of boats. The Royal Irrigation Department reduced the amount of water being released through Bangkok from 3,000 to 2,800 cubic metres per second to try and avert possible flooding in the capital. However, people should still be on alert for possible floods between Sunday and Wednesday due to high tides, the city governor warned.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Cooler, moist air from the Pacific Ocean helped fire crews fight back against wildfires blazing across Southern California Wednesday, giving firefighters a chance to hold the line of flames from nearing more communities.
The wind-driven infernos that are scarring vast swaths of Southern California's landscape may leave more than just a temporary path of destruction when they are finally extinguished. Because they have struck some regions still trying to recover from recent burns, the wildfires could leave a legacy of environmental devastation that will be evident for years to come. Some of it may never be reversed. Scientists say the changes could be profound, especially in areas that have been scorched multiple times in recent years. Invasive weeds and grasses could crowd out native plants and shrubs. In turn, that could speed erosion and lead to more frequent wildfires. Small birds, rabbits and other animals dependent on California's rapidly disappearing native vegetation will struggle to maintain a foothold, while some endangered species will find themselves locked into increasingly imperiled islands of refuge. Scientists say it will take years to know the extent of the long-term damage. California's natural landscape is engineered to benefit from periodic fires. Many native plants actually need fires to germinate. But wildfires are on the rise, in both frequency and intensity, in part because of hotter, drier conditions. If a fire recurs in an area within five to 10 years, the hardy native shrubs may not get the chance to mature and create seeds. Exotic weed-like grasses that germinate quickly can fill in areas faster than natives can recover. "The big problem with these big fires is they just increase the chance of a repeat fire."

In an apparent attempt to downplay the effects of climate change, the White House Office of Management and Budget (aka, The Ministry of Truth) gouged the text of testimony given by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this week. CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding's testimony, providing scientific details about the nature of diseases that will spread should the Earth continue to warm, was cut in half by the White House. A CDC insider told the AP that while some changes were customary, the edits to Gerberding's original draft were especially "heavy-handed." Gerberding was allowed to say only that climate change is "anticipated to have a broad range" of health impacts and then had to focus on how to prepare for problems she wasn't permitted to list.

CANADA - Greater Victoria sunshine SHATTERED A 40-YEAR RECORD HIGH Tuesday with the mercury rising to 20 C. The average high for this late October day is about 12 degrees, but that average and a 1966 record high of 18.3 degrees were smashed with unseasonably warm weather.

SPACE WEATHER-
Comet 17P/Holmes is undergoing a spectacular eruption - The 17th-magnitude comet has brightened by a factor of 500,000 or more during the past 24 hours becoming a naked eye object in the evening sky. This may signify a breakup of the comet's core or a rich vein of ice suddenly exposed to sunlight - no one knows. Look for a yellow 2.5th-magnitude fuzzball in the constellation Perseus after sunset. ("2.5th magnitude" means a little dimmer than the stars of the Big Dipper.) At present the comet looks more like a star than a comet; it does not have a discernable tail, but it might grow one as the outburst continues.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Half of the American people have never read a newspaper.
Half never voted for President. One hopes it is the same half.
Gore Vidal

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/23/07 -
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SULU SEA
5.4 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression KIKO was 351 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

INDIA - A day after the northeast monsoon was officially declared as having set in over the Bay of Bengal, ‘disruptive features’ evolving to the west over the Arabian Sea have sent weathermen scurrying back to their map rooms. The ghost of Super Cyclone Gonu (the system that nearly killed the southwest monsoon during onset in June) is haunting them, with hints of another destructive cyclone stalking the Arabian Sea during the week ahead. Gonu’s successor is seen as treading the same path of calibrated growth in power and vigour, culminating in a likely blow-up over the Oman coast around October 30. In the process, it will have ‘waved down’ an approaching ‘low’ from the Bay. This ‘low’ would now be forced to buy time for a landfall over the Tamil Nadu coast, which is now expected to take place around October 31 — three days later than scheduled, but a day after the ‘pretender’ to Gonu erupts in a spurt of heavy torrents over the Gulf coast. Most of the easterly monsoon winds could get directed into the domineering Arabian Sea system, much in the way Gonu contrived to pack itself with hurricane-strength winds. The onset phase of the southwest monsoon had chalked for want of moisture diverted in this manner. But the impact of the latest storm may not be that big, if only for the fact that it is not brewing in the same sea basin as the northeast monsoon. In contrast, the southwest monsoon had to contend with a storm of Gonu’s bearing in its own backyard.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Communities in northern South Australia are counting the cost of flash flooding late yesterday. Up to 50mm of rain fell in just over half an hour yesterday, as thunder and hail storms swept across South Australia's Yorke Peninsula and north-west regions. Two major roads were cut by the downpour, which caused extensive flooding in several regional centres. Crops have also suffered extensive damage, but farmers say at this point it is too early to tell what can be salvaged from the sodden paddocks.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - More than half a million people have been ordered to evacuate parts of the US state of California being engulfed by massive wildfires. Fierce winds are fanning at least 16 fires that have razed land from Santa Barbara to the Mexican border. The blazes have left two people dead and destroyed more than 1,200 homes and businesses. Around 40 people have been injured, including at least 18 firefighters. Thousands of residents sought shelter at fairgrounds, schools and community centres. "It was like Armageddon - it looked like the end of the world." Up to 300,000 acres (120,000 hectares) of land have been scorched - an area bigger than New York City. Officials have warned the heat and wind levels are not likely to abate for 24 hours. (map) 9 photos
Despairing firefighters have given up battling some of the worst blazes tearing across southern California, as 500,000 people fled the firestorm that is threatening 68,000 homes. Up to 1600 properties have already been destroyed in a disaster that sparked THE LARGEST EVACUATION IN CALIFORNIA'S HISTORY, and the biggest in the US since Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in 2005. There is no sign of any reprieve in the hot, blustery conditions. At least five people have died. The State Government has put economic losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. In a sign of just how desperate the situation is, authorities said they had no hope of getting on top of the blazes due to the shrieking, unpredictable nature of the Santa Ana winds. And there were simply not enough resources to win the battle, which has been raging for three days in temperatures above 30C. Firefighters in the Mexican border city of Tecate tried to control fires that sent up black smoke and covered houses and cars with grey ash. Fires also burned on the outskirts of the Mexican city of Tijuana, 32km from San Diego.

NEW YORK - For the fifth time this month, a RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET at LaGuardia Airport on Tuesday, and it's the seventh record high to be set in the last six weeks. The temperature Tuesday topped out at 80-degrees, breaking the old record set back in 1995. What's more, the average temperature this month has been 9 degrees above normal. With just a week to go until November, New York City is ON PACE TO HAVE ITS WARMEST OCTOBER EVER. In Central Park, the average temperature this month has been 66.7 degrees, a full three degrees warmer than the warmest October on record, which was 60 years ago in 1947. This past week has seen high temperatures remaining steady in the 70s, with a streak of seven straight days with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. It hasn't been just this past week that's seen warmer than normal weather. In fact, 32 of the past 34 days have also experienced above average temperatures.

U.S. - “In the interior Northeast, back to the Ohio Valley, it is likely to be the warmest October on record." Most records go back to the late 19th century. The main cause of the balmy weather this month was the UNUSUALLY northern position of the northern jet stream — the river of high-speed air that circles the globe and separates warm and cold air masses. Because the jet stream is farther north than usual, the Northeast is sitting under warmer air. (Farther west, the jet stream zigs south, the World Series-bound Colorado Rockies’ baseball practice was held indoors in Denver on Sunday because of four inches of snow.)

UNITED KINGDOM - Climate change makes south too dry for lizards - What has happened to the common lizard? Alarm bells are sounding in herpetological circles because it seems to be no longer living up to its name in some parts of Britain. While habitat loss from development and intensive agriculture are likely to have had an impact, some experts suspect climate change could be the major cause, with the species possibly no longer feeling at home in increasingly warm and dry southern regions. Lately, there have been reports of it becoming less numerous in - or even disappearing altogether from - areas where formerly there was an abundance. "My own experience over the past 30 years bears out such reports. I can think of places which used to be alive with baby lizards during August and September but that no longer seems to be the case. This would be understandable if the sites had undergone major change but I am aware of such situations in locations where the habitat looks ideal." Circumstances like that have roused suspicion that climate change may have influenced the puzzling declines and disappearances noted in southern Britain. "Common lizards seem to have declined or disappeared at most of the sites where I knew them 20 or more years ago, and several other people seem to have had similar experiences."

Global warming could cut a swathe through the planet's species over the coming centuries, warns a study which shows a link between rising temperatures and mass extinctions reaching back half a billion years. Each of five major eras of declining biodiversity - including one in which 95% of the Earth's species disappeared - correspond to cycles of severe warming over the 520-million-year period for which there are fossil records. If emissions of greenhouse gas rise unchecked, the predicted increase in global temperature over the next several hundred years could fall within a similar range as these peaks.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Speak when you are angry - and you will make the best speech you'll ever regret.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/22/07 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.7 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression KIKO was 263 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Wildfires raging across California have scorched nearly 1000sq km, making the blaze ONE OF THE LARGEST IN THE STATE'S HISTORY. At least 13 separate fires are alight throughout California, covering huge swathes of tinder-dry countryside that has been parched by months of record-low rainfall across the region. The biggest fire is at Witch Creek, north of San Diego, where 58,680ha (145,000 acres) are alight. More than 500 houses, 100 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. The next largest fire is the Castaic blaze, 63km north of Los Angeles where 16,592ha (41,000 acres) were alight. In nearby Agua Dulce, 14,164ha are in flames, with officials expecting the two fires to merge within 48 hours. The deadliest fire is spreading to Mexico on the southern tip of California. The Harris fire has accounted for 8093ha (19,998 acres), with 1500 structures under threat. Meanwhile, an arson fire in Orange County has spread to 6070ha while in exclusive Malibu west of Los Angeles, 1537ha (3798 acres) has gone up in flames. 40 photos
MEXICO - smoke from wildfires in southern California caused classes to be suspended Monday in the northern Mexico cities of Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito, in Baja California. Baja California's Police advised inhabitants of the region bordering the United States to avoid going out of their homes except in an emergency due to the harmful effects of the smoke. Since the weekend, the smoke from many Californian grass and forest fires has filled Mexican skies with harmful heavy smoke. The Police of Tijuana, near San Diego, California, said they remain on alert in that zone due to the fire's proximity to Tecate (Mexico)-Tecatito (U.S.). The fire is not expected to cross into Mexican territory since the winds are blowing in other directions. (photos)

TURKEY - The Marmara region of Turkey where Istanbul is located received 34% less precipitation than average this past winter; and the Aegean Region, which includes the city of Izmir, received 43% less precipitation than average since October of 2006. Precipitation this low was UNPRECEDENTED in these regions in the last three decades. In the summer of 2007, temperatures rose over 46°C in many parts of Turkey as well as the entire Mediterranean region. This heat combined with aridity is estimated to have cost Turkish farmers ~$3.9 billion. Turkey’s wheat crop dropped by about 15%. The Turkish Aegean region alone suffered from 30% lower harvest yields in cotton, corn and tobacco and a 50% drop in fig production. By mid-summer, the drought started to affect major cities. Ankara (~4 million), the capital, suffered serious water rationing this summer (two days on, two days off). Greece had to declare “state of emergency” at least twice this summer: once for forest fires killing over 60 people, burning half a million acres of land, and costing $1.6 billion; and once for drought on the Cyclades Islands due to water shortages. Morocco experienced 50% less rainfall than average this year which will likely result in half of last year’s grain harvest. And because feed prices went up as a result of this drought, Moroccan livestock was also seriously affected. "Much of the Mediterranean area, North Africa and the Middle East rapidly are becoming drier. If the trend continues as expected, the consequences may be severe in only a couple of decades. These changes could pose significant water resource challenges to large segments of the population."

Monday, October 22, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Ninety-eight percent of the adults in this country are decent, hard-working, honest Americans.
It's the other lousy two percent that get all the publicity. But then - we elected them.
Lily Tomlin

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/21/07 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Twenty-one major cities around the world are at risk of having areas swamped by rising sea levels from global warming, a think-tank has warned. New York, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Bangkok, Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, Cairo, Mumbai and Karachi were among the "highly vulnerable" cities at risk. "Although natural disasters are often presented as rare and unexpected tragedies, the reality is they now occur more frequently, affect more people and cause bigger economic damage than ever before". The world is already "seeing hints" of the way climate change will affect cities by amplifying natural hazards including rising sea levels. In the last century the oceans rose by between 9cm and 20cm and scientists predict further increases of up to 88cm by 2100. Cities will need to plan ahead to avoid disaster.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - The risk of eruption at an Indonesian volcano on Java island has not passed and remains at high alert status, scientists said Saturday. "Tremors had calmed down from Mount Kelut since yesterday (Friday) but other indicators still show increasing magmatic pressure from the volcano's belly." Sensors sending real-time information from the mount's peak showed increased temperatures at the crater. Tremors rocked Mount Kelut for nearly an hour on Friday afternoon - usually a precursor of an eruption. Geologists have said the eruption would be comprised of "heat clouds" consisting of searing gases and volcanic debris rushing down the slopes, similar to the most recent eruption in 1990 that left 34 dead. Some 116,000 villagers have been evacuated from the fertile land around Kelut's slopes, but many have defied local officials' orders to stay away and returned home to tend their farms and to protect against possible looting. About to 130,000 people live in the 10-kilometre radius danger zone and a further 150,000 people live up to 30 kilometres from the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 531 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm KIKO was 173 nmi WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - This year the beginning of the northeast monsoon is earlier than expected. The northeast monsoon is now the current weather system in the country, and will bring rains to the eastern side of the country until early 2008. The northeast monsoon is usually prevalent during the period from November to March or April. It is also responsible for the cool atmosphere during the last part of the year until the early part of the next year before the beginning of the summer season. The southwest monsoon usually brings rains in the western side of the country, including Metro Manila, from May to September. Earlier this year, the southwest monsoon had not brought rains to the country until August, and there had been an absence of tropical cyclones in the country during the typhoon season, particularly during the month of June and the entry of only one tropical cyclone in July. This led to a dry spell in most parts of Luzon. Tropical cyclones enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains in the western side of the country. They also enhance the northeast monsoon that brings rains in the eastern side of the country. So far this year, only nine tropical cyclones have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Philippines is visited by an average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones each year due to its geographical location within the Pacific "Typhoon Belt."

NIGERIA - No fewer than 60 communities have either been submerged or ravaged by a charging flood in four states of the Niger-Delta, specifically, Delta, Edo, Bayelsa and Ondo states, in the past few weeks, with more than 120,000 persons reportedly dislodged following the overflow of the River Niger and the bordering tributaries. The kind of flooding that was experienced, this year, HAS NEVER BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST FIVE DECADES in the riverside communities of the Niger-Delta and the situation was not helped by the fact that most of the communities do not have foreshore protective walls and there was no piling or concrete measures taken to prevent flood disaster. Worse hit is Delta state where at least 50 communities were affected at Ndokwa-East, Patani, Bomadia and Burutu local government areas. The palaces of two royal fathers in Ndokwa-East were destroyed in addition to other residential buildings, farmlands, economic crops and domestic animals in the endangered communities.

THAILAND - Two more districts in Ayutthaya were declared disaster zones yesterday, bringing the number of severely flooded districts in the province to eight. The worst-hit areas are in Bang Ban district where the flood rose as high as 2.5 metres. 10,187 houses in the provinces were reported to be inundated by last night. The water level in the Chao Phraya river is rising by 10 centimetres a day. It threatens to inundate ancient riverside temples and Siriyalai Palace. Yesterday soldiers helped build a 400-metre wall of sandbags in front of the palace to keep the water back. The weather office said rain would continue to lash southern Thailand until later this week as a low pressure front moved slowly across the area. Heavy rains warnings were issued for nine provinces in the South, including Chumphon where 150 village roads and 15 bridges have already been damaged by the flood. Officials have been also told to stay alert in 267 areas prone to mudslides.

MINNESOTA - Before the flood of the century on August 18-19, the part of the Upper Mississippi National Wildlife and Fish Refuge that lies just beyond Minnesota City was a sanctuary. Now it looks like an asteroid hit it. The woods around Garvin Brook have been erased. A crushed car sits buried in chocolate-colored muck. A semitrailer container still slumps in the brook bed, all but buried. The impact of August's floods on the refuge may not be as jaw-dropping as the demolished foundations and waterlogged homes along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border. But federal officials estimate the raging waters caused nearly half-a-million dollars damage on the refuge - blowing out culverts, ripping new paths for Mississippi tributaries and leaving behind tons of sediment and debris. "That kind of rain event hasn't happened in our recorded history." Now boaters must watch out for new sandbars. Fish could have a tough time surviving the winter. Aquatic plants could starve for sunlight next spring. The refuge - a collection of islands, channels, forests and marshes - stretches about 260 miles from southern Minnesota to northern Illinois. The floodwaters were so powerful they forced the Whitewater River over its banks. Before the flood the Whitewater emptied into the Mississippi just north of Minnieska, but the volume of water was so overwhelming the river carved a new bed and now joins the Mississippi a half-mile farther north, complete with a fresh, sediment-built delta. The story was the same with the Root River near Brownsville, which pumped so much dirt into its Mississippi mouth it, too, created a new delta. Biologists aren't sure what long-term effects the flooding may have, but the refuge's backwaters were "severely affected."

SRI LANKA - A landslide threat is looming in several places due to the developing inter-monsoonal weather conditions in the island. Hilly areas in the Central Province could be affected by landslides. Certain places in Pussellawa, Hanguranketha, Walapane and Kandy subject to landslides earlier have been mapped out as high landslide prone areas. In addition, hilly areas in the Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern Provinces have also been detected as landslide prone and residents are advised to be vigilant.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - At least one person has been killed and thousands evacuated as at least 12 wildfires rage across the US state of California, fanned by fierce winds. The governor declared a state of emergency in seven counties, with 35,000 acres (14,000 hectares) burnt from Santa Barbara to San Diego. In Malibu, a large blaze forced stars to flee. That fire is thought to have been caused by a power cable that ignited after being blown over in heavy wind. All 36,000 residents of Ramona, north-east of San Diego, were ordered to leave their homes as another blaze razed more than 5,000 acres (2,000 hectares). "I can't ever remember [evacuating the town of Ramona]. This fire is crazy." Officials say the ground is tinder dry after a record summer heatwave. During a long heatwave in July, wildfires scorched thousands of acres across California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, South Dakota, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. With forecasters predicting hurricane-force winds to continue until later in the week, thousands more homes could be at risk in California. (Photos)
The fires raging across Southern California are being fueled by gale-force winds that meteorologists say will worsen in the next two days as temperatures rise and humidity levels continue to plummet. Forecasters from the National Weather Service and other meteorological organizations said they COULDN'T EVER RECALL SUCH INTENSE WINDS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, even in the heart of the Santa Ana season. The conditions have been exacerbated by a La Niña weather pattern that meteorologists have warned about for months, saying it will bring a drier-than-normal winter in a region already dealing with the driest year on record. Winds are expected to pick up at least until Tuesday, when forecasters say it's possible that Los Angeles will match the all-time high of 95 degrees for that day. "Not only is it a strong event, it's ONE OF THE STRONGEST EVENTS YOU'LL GET IN ANY SANTA ANA SEASON." "The strongest winds have not occurred yet. They're going to peak [on Monday]." Firefighters in Malibu were beating back flames amid gusts that neared 50 mph. In the Newhall Pass and Port Hueneme, gusts blew up to 78 mph Sunday, qualifying as hurricane-force. In Fremont Canyon in the Santa Ana mountains, southeast of Yorba Linda, gusts reached 86 mph. Gusts hit 108 mph at Whitaker Peak near Castaic Lake and 111 mph at Laguna Peak, near Point Mugu. The powerful Santa Anas are the result of a cool high-pressure system in the Great Basin above Utah and a warmer low-pressure system along coastal Southern California. "The winds are one way one minute, and it seems OK. Then they come right back again, and you think the world is ending." As Santa Ana winds move from high to low elevations, crossing deserts and mountains, they heat up. That is bad news for firefighters, because the winds heat and dry already-parched vegetation. "The relative humidity went from 60% to 70% around dawn to single digits: 5%, 7%, 8%." The Santa Ana season peaks in December and can stretch into the spring. It could become markedly worse as winter approaches, because of La Niña. Experts say this La Niña could turn into one of the strongest the region has had in years. La Niñas do not cause Santa Ana events, but the dry conditions worsen their effects. These winds are notable not just for their power but their longevity. "This Santa Ana has got legs. This could be a 72-hour event. And when the winds get this strong, it's really dangerous." (photo, maps)

CANADA - The mercury rose to 26C at one point on Sunday in Toronto, BEATING THE RECORD of 24.1C set back in 1979 for this day of the year. It's been a warmer than usual fall in general, with a few cool days breaking up what's otherwise been a steady stream of heat and humidity. On October 8, they SET A NEW FALL AND DAY RECORD at 32C. But there is a down side. Weather experts warn the change for the warmer could be evidence of a chilling reality that lies ahead. "We've been breaking records left, right and centre this fall. So if we keep seeing these types of dramatic changes in the weather that's going to cause all sorts of problems for ecosystems and ultimately for human beings." Since the start of 2007, the city has seen 393 millimetres of rain while normal levels would be 663 millimetres.

METEORS-
AUSTRALIA - 10/15 & 10/16 - Tension gripped Western Victoria residents after witnessing bright light in the heavens for two straight nights, believed to be a meteor. Residents of Ballarat, west of Melbourne, said that they saw a bright orange-colored light in the sky about 10 p.m Tuesday. The object reportedly flew around the air for more than one minute. Last Monday, calls from the residents of South Australia and Western Victoria were received by authorities and media offices reporting a bright green colored object shooting like a fireball westward in the sky around 8pm. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed the object seen on Monday night was a meteor.
Some residents of Central Victoria believed they saw the meteor crashing to the ground on Monday the 15th. Callers to ABC Radio say they saw a brightly coloured object moving quickly through the northern skies. "I guess it just looked like a meteor. It was bright green, or flashing green, and really bright and sparkling and kind of blazed across the sky." "Very visible, very bright. A big white, greenish sort of a head and long tail in the middle with orange sparks flying off each side."

Sunday, October 21, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/20/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 PALAU REGION
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
10/19/07 -
None 5.0 and over.

VOLCANOES -
PERU & CHILE - Volcanic structures monitored in the Andes via satellite show unexpected activity. The central part of the Andes situated between southern Peru and Chile bears 50 active or potentially volcanoes, spread along a 1500 km-long arc. These volcanic structures are very remote with abrupt slopes and are often cloaked in snow. Few studies have been made on them as such conditions make field surveying extremely difficult. Research projects on deformations of the earth crust, conducted in this region between 1992 and 2000, led to the detection of a long wavelength signal over the area's topography. This deformation would correspond to crustal inflation affecting the whole Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre complex. Although this volcano is not considered as active, as the last eruption dates back 9000 years, such inflation could express an underlying activity related to the dynamics of a functioning magma chamber. Between March 2003 and June 2005, new data led to measurement of inflation of about a centimetre affecting the crust over the whole Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex. A long wavelength regional-scale signal was found, covering a surface area of about 45 km long by 35 km wide corresponding to the entire volcanic complex. A short wavelength signal not previously identified was also revealed, but unlike the first, it was located at the smaller scale of the Lastarria volcano only. Two distinct hypotheses are envisaged to explain the emission of these two wavelengths. As the inflation measured at regional scale corresponds to a long wavelength signal, it has a fairly deep source, estimated by the geophysicists at between 7 and 15 km down. An inflation located at such a depth is highly likely to be generated by magmatic activity. The source of the short wavelength signal, located at about 1000 m beneath the summit of the Lastarria volcano, is more uncertain, however. Indications nevertheless suggest a link with the circulation of hydrothermal fluids. The hope is to obtain further information on changes of mass or density at depth, as a modification of gravity combined with a displacement of the terrestrial crust could indicate a filling or an emptying of a magma chamber and therefore confirm an underlying volcanic activity. If this turned out to be true, the Lastatria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex would be the only area under the Andes where the formation of large magma reservoirs has been demonstrated.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 505 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm KIKO was 147 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - A wave of severe weather cut a brutal path across the United States overnight Thursday, killing six people. Three dozen tornadoes were reported since Wednesday, starting in Oklahoma and continuing into Florida and throughout the Mississippi Valley Thursday. Tornadoes were reported from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico as UNUSUALLY warm temperatures created instability not normally seen this late in the year. The storms that spun tornadoes and dropped pounding hail in the central United States, barreled toward the east coast Friday, bringing hope for relief to parched southern states suffering the worst drought in a century. Tornadoes and thunderstorms had been thought of as being too localized, as weather events, to tie to larger climatic shifts. But a NASA study this August suggested that a warmer climate would produce more updrafts and keep more heat energy in the atmosphere — two pre-conditions to strong storms like thunderstorms and tornadoes. The weather is UNUSUALLY severe for late October. This type of "UNUSUAL” weather event could become more and more commonplace if the atmosphere continues to warm up.

INDIA - Twelve people died and eleven sustained severe injuries in southern India when an apartment building collapsed after heavy rain.

CUBA - As a result of the heavy rains which fell on Thursday night, focused in the northern area of the city of Camagüey, the rivers crossing the city overflowed, affecting the low grounds of the neighbours La Norma, José Martí, El Jardín, Saratoga and La Zambrana. Some 130 millimetres of rain fell in less than an hour and runoffs caused people living near the banks of the rivers to go into a state of alert. Floods were also reported in Albaisa and Lenin de la Paz, in northern Camaguey, because of the saturation of the soils and the inability of runoffs in the same proportion. The Defence Council in the province and the municipality of Camaguey adopted measures for the possible evacuation of the people living in vulnerable zones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - A snow cyclone in Primorye, in Russia's Far East, has caused power outages in several areas and interrupted water supplies in Vladivostok. The snow cyclone swept through the region during the night Friday. The cyclone has left about 100 populated areas of almost 200,000 people without electricity. Repair teams continue to work day and night there, but it is difficult for them to reach some areas because of the heavy snowfall. While some electro-transmission lines are repaired, new line breaks occur. Specialists plan to resume electricity supply to most of the affected areas in 12 hours. The situation is also complicated on roads. The snowfall disrupted traffic on the Khorol-Yaroslavka-Sibirtsevo section where about 100 vehicles were trapped in snow and on the federal Khabarovsk-Vladivostok road where several hundred vehicles were blocked in a congestion. The cyclone is moving across the central and northern regions of the Primorsky Territory. According to meteorologists, it will move to the northeast and to the Sea of Okhotsk and then come to Sakhalin.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

MARYLAND - Reagan National Airport received its first measurable rain Friday since Sept. 14 - a 34-day stretch without rain. That BROKE THE OLD RECORD of 33 days, which ended on Sept. 8, 1995. That brought the total for the month here to not quite nine-tenths of an inch. Dulles Airport tied the record of 82 degrees for the date, set in 1963. This drought remains in place and it's expected to persist at least through January. With 11 days to go, this October ranks as the 9th driest on record for Baltimore.

TEXAS - The grass is high and drying down, the winds are blowing, and UNUSUAL lightning storms are taking place – conditions are right and all it will take is a spark to set off a repeat of the 2006 wildfire season. "It’s setting up to be that kind of year again. We’ve had so much rain, a lot of moisture, and have grown a lot of grass." Due to drought conditions, some areas don’t have that many cows grazing, which has left a lot of dry grass or fuel standing in pastures. "If it turns off dry or with an early frost, it is setting us up to have another fire season like we had in 2006 and 2007." Already the Panhandle and South Plains area have seen a number of fires touched off by lightning this fall, which is a little UNUSUAL. A fire on Oct. 18 burned more than 20,000 acres of grassland in Deaf Smith County. This combination of conditions has led to increased fire weather concerns across Oklahoma and portions of western North Texas, as well as eastern New Mexico and across the Texas Panhandle. Wildfires are not just a problem for rural homeowners and ranchers; during the last two years, 85 percent of the wildfires in Texas have occurred within two miles of a community.

PARAGUAY - The regular drought in the region of Chaco and, since April, in the eastern part of the country (Centre and North East) has exacerbated the forest fires that broke out in August and went totally out of control on September 7. On a million hectares of land, forests and crops have been ruined, houses destroyed, inhabitants evacuated and cattle and wildlife decimated. It is estimated that nearly 200,000 people have been directly affected by this disaster.

UNITED KINGDOM - Climate change drives endangered seabird into UK waters - northeast Atlantic sea surface temperatures rose by 0.6 degrees Celsius in the mid-1990s, triggering a northwards shift in the Balearic shearwater's prey fish species and with it the birds that feed on them. "Just 20 years ago Balearic shearwaters were scarce visitors to South West waters, but they are now regularly recorded from headlands throughout the UK. Since 2003 we have even started seeing birds staying throughout the winter off Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, which is a completely new phenomenon linked to elevated winter sea temperatures." Changes in fish distribution and abundance mean that many Balearic shearwaters are being forced to migrate 20% further - over 400 miles - in search of food than they did a few years ago. Experts say the effects on survival of individual birds are hard to assess, but could well be contributing to the species highly endangered status.

The amount of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the world's oceans has reduced. Results of a 10-year study in the North Atlantic show CO2 uptake halved between the mid-90s and 2000 to 2005. Scientists believe global warming might get worse if the oceans soak up less of the greenhouse gas. Researchers said the findings were surprising and worrying. "It is a tremendous surprise and very worrying because there were grounds for believing that in time the ocean might become 'saturated' with our emissions - unable to soak up any more." That would "leave all our emissions to warm the atmosphere". Of all the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, only half of it stays there; the rest goes into carbon sinks. There are two major natural carbon sinks: the oceans and the land "biosphere". They are equivalent in size, each absorbing a quarter of all CO2 emissions.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide from shipping are twice the level of aviation. Emissions have risen sharply in the past six years. Some 90,000 ships from tankers to small freighters ply the world's oceans. A recent estimate suggests that the world's shipping uses between 350 and 410 million tonnes of fuel each year, which equates to up to 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. Growth in global trade coupled with ships burning more fuel to deliver freight faster has contributed significantly to the increase. There are few accurate measures and even fewer restrictions on the amounts of carbon dioxide that ships can emit at present, but governments in many parts of the world are considering a clampdown as part of their efforts to tackle global warming.

Friday, October 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Americans will put up with anything provided it doesn't block traffic.
Dan Rather

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/18/07 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

INDONESIA - Continuing dramatic movement - Researchers say ongoing uplift following the 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, which triggered massive tsunamis the day after Christmas, is caused by continuing slip on the quake fault. Scientists have observed dramatic post-earthquake movement following several large temblors, including the 2004 quake, and the latter boasts the largest movement recorded since GPS technology became available. GPS sites in the Andamans have recorded uplift ranging from six inches to more than a foot since the earthquake and even larger horizontal movements toward the southwest. A hot topic of debate is what causes the movement. “Our research indicates that the Andaman post-earthquake movements resulted mostly from continuing silent slip on the fault, below the depth that slipped during the 2004 earthquake.” The findings have implications for the earthquake cycle on faults, including how stress accumulates in the time between quakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 517 nmi NNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm KIKO was 114 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical storm Kiko heads toward Mexico's Pacific coast; may become hurricane. Mexico issued a tropical storm warning along its Pacific coast Thursday as Tropical Storm Kiko marched toward land. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometres an hour and was located 140 kilometres southwest of the resort of Zihuatanejo. It was moving north at almost 15 km/h, and was expected to veer sharply toward the northwest early today and skim Mexico's southwest Pacific coast. Forecasters said it would likely strengthen, although they didn't expect it to become a hurricane before scraping land, probably near the port of Manzanillo on Sunday. The tropical storm warning was issued from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression late Tuesday before regaining tropical storm status Wednesday. The storm could kick up strong waves, winds and rains on land. The storm was expected to strengthen to a hurricane Saturday, but forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said its eye was expected to stay off shore. Forecasters warned it could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain on land.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
RUSSIA - a storm warning was announced in the Primorye territory on Thursday over the approach of a powerful cyclone. The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry reported that on October 19-20 the region will be affected by heavy rains and the wind force will reach 23-25 metres per second. The heaviest rains are expected in the west of the territory on the night to Friday and during the day heavy rains are also possible. After passing of the cold front on Saturday, northern winds will cause air temperatures to fall and it will snow. The bad weather conditions may cause disruptions in the work of sea and air transport, work of the housing and public utilities sector, damage of communication and power transmission lines and an increased number of road accidents.

VIETNAM - Flood waters threatened the central Vietnam World Heritage town of Hoi An on Thursday, drowning at least 10 people and forcing thousands from their homes. There were also threats of flash floods and landslides in three key coffee growing provinces in the Central Highlands, where rivers were rising following heavy rains earlier this week. Heavy rain was falling in Hue, 660 km (410 miles) southeast of Hanoi, swelling floods that have isolated many areas along the north-south Highway One and forcing people to move around by boat. At least 30,000 people had been moved to higher ground in the provinces of Thua Thien-Hue and Quang Tri, where two people drowned as their boat capsized on Wednesday. The flood-stricken region is not a significant rice producer, but floods have flushed away farmers' food reserves.

BELIZE - Rains over the past week have resulted in rivers being flooded especially in the Cayo District. The result has been UNUSUAL flooding occurring in the Belize River because of the influx of water coming down the Macal and the Mopan River. A lot of rains occurred over the Peten area over the northern part of Guatemala and this has also resulted in runoffs to that Mopan River and has been adding to the flooding situation on the Belize River. The Iguana Creek wooden bridge that joins Blackman Eddie and the Mennonite community across the river is still under some three feet of water and it’s impassable. It has been reported that this bridge has been impassable for the past 72 hours which is A RECORD, since this has not been noted to have occurred over the last five years. So the waters that have been coming down across the Belize river has been UNPRECEDENTED in this area.

NEW ZEALAND - Geologists have found that the Young River landslide in Mt Aspiring National Park is the BIGGEST LANDSLIDE IN NEW ZEALAND SINCE 1991 when the top fell off Mount Cook in 1991. The volume of the landslide has been measured at 13 million cubic meters. The Young River landslide occurred on August 29 and was discovered by a helicopter pilot three weeks later. Seismic waves generated by the landslide were the equivalent of a magnitude 2.9 earthquake, and were recorded by seismic instruments in the central South Island. The landslide impounded a lake measuring about 2km long and 500m wide. It is about 60m deep and contains about 26 million cubic metres of water. The rising lake overtopped the debris dam on October 5 and water is draining away through a natural channel. Large rock avalanches and landslides ranked with volcanic eruptions and earthquakes as major earth forces that have been shaping New Zealand’s landscape for millions of years. “While big landslides are not weekly events, they are a natural landforming process that occur worldwide."

THAILAND - Nakhon Ratchasima is now suffering from the WORST FLOOD IN 13 YEARS as more than 200000 people have lost the use of tap water after flood waters rose over 1.5 metres and damaged an electricity transformer at a water-treatment station on Tuesday night. Many houses in the province are now submerged.

UNITED KINGDOM - A Welsh village has been devastated by a 'tsunami' wave of water even though it is 20 miles from the sea. Ten people were rescued and three homes evacuated when a canal burst its banks - sending a 4ft wave surging through the country village. Mystery surrounds the reasons why the 200-year-old Brecon and Monmouthshire canal burst its banks - sending the torrent down a hillside into the village. Families in Gilwern, near Abergavenny, South Wales, have been clearing up after thousands of gallons of canal water carried tons of mud and debris into their homes. "It is terrible what has happened here, and there was no warning it was about to happen. A huge crater has been left next to one house and the canal has very little water left in it. It really is shocking, and the residents and businesses here will be badly affected." "It could be an issue elsewhere. Canals are so old they're not constructed how they would have to be constructed now. How many banks of canals are leaking that we don't know about?" (dramatic photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

FLORIDA - Fort Myers has had two record-tying temperatures in October: a 92-degree high Tuesday and on Oct. 5. The last time it reached 92 degrees on Oct. 16 was in 1989. Record-keepers have to go all the way back to 1936 to find an Oct. 5 with a 92-degree high. Fort Myers' average October high so far has been 91, well above the normal average of 86. The average low, 74, also has been much higher than the normal 69 degrees. The area has also been unseasonably dry. Normally this time of year, a high-pressure system remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, steering hurricanes their way. A western Atlantic system is acting like a hurricane blocker. The high-pressure system continues to hover along the U.S. eastern seaboard. It's the same system that has been keeping Southwest Florida dry for the past month.

South African Iceberg - Maritime officials in South Africa broadcast a navigational warning to ships passing off the country's southern coast after a fishing vessel reported seeing a large iceberg 35 nautical miles from the Eastern Cape coast near Port Elizabeth. The crew estimated the chunk of ice was about 25 metres in length and 20 metres in height. Reports of icebergs near the southern tip of South Africa are EXCEEDINGLY RARE given that Antarctica is 3,700 km to the south. There were a few sightings in the 1850s near Cape Town, and a piece of ice about 1 metre above the surface was seen in 2002.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A new report warns that the H5N1 strain of bird flu has recently mutated to a form that is more easily able to infect humans, but researchers say the virus still does not have the ability to cause a global pandemic. "We have identified a specific change that could make bird flu grow in the upper respiratory tract of humans." Recent samples of the avian influenza virus taken from birds in Africa and Europe all contained the mutation. The H5N1 strain, which has killed or caused the slaughter of millions of birds, has infected 329 people in 12 countries since 2003, killing 201 of them. It has only rarely been passed from human to human, but the wrong combination of mutations could give it the ability to spread into a global epidemic.

Thursday, October 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain.
Lily Tomlin

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/17/07 -
5.1 TAIWAN
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.5 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE

CALIFORNIA - October 17th was the anniversary of the 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake that struck the Bay Area 18 years ago. The quake dislodged a segment of the Bay Bridge, collapsed the Cypress Freeway in Oakland, triggered a fire in San Francisco's Marina District and destroyed mu