Wednesday, October 31, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 7.1 quake in PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
and a 5.6 quake in the SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA - the STRONGEST TO HIT THE BAY AREA SINCE 1989. The temblor came from the lesser-known Calaveras Fault. The quake produced no reports of serious injuries or damage. The USGS reported about a dozen aftershocks, the biggest with a preliminary magnitude of 2.1.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/30/07 -
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

TSUNAMI -
NORWAY - The government has allocated an extra NOK 10 million (USD 1.87 million) to monitor the unstable mountain areas along Storfjorden in Møre og Romsdal County. An avalanche along Storfjorden (the big fjord) would create a tsunami at least as large as the one that smashed into Tafjord in 1934, killing 40 people. Tafjord is deeper into the fjord than the mountain areas near Åknes, where a major avalanche is now feared. The mountain has been regularly monitored for the past 50 years and has begun to move with increasing speed, with cracks growing at the rate of several centimeter a year. In 2007 changes of up to 3 millimeters (.11 inch) a week have been registered. The Tafjord avalanche caused a tsunami that was 64 meters (210 feet) high. In 1905 a similar catastrophe struck Loen in Stryn, when Ramnefjellet unleashed a rock slide, and 61 people were killed. Those disasters were completely unexpected, but the monitoring system that will now be put in place should allow for 24-hour readiness, and the possibility to evacuate residents before the mountain gives way.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 676 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 182 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas.

Noel - at least 43 people were killed in floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Noel as it barrelled across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba in the Caribbean. The storm over the Dominican Republic threatened to cause more floods and mudslides across the region, already drenched by weeks of rainfall. The National Emergency Committee said nearly 20,000 people had to evacuate their homes across the country. In Cuba, 2000 people in the storm's path were evacuated. Tropical Storm Noel was expected to head back out to sea off the north coast of Cuba tonight or tomorrow. It was then expected to barrel over some of the Bahamian islands before heading north into the Atlantic Ocean, though forecasters said Noel's likely track would take it dangerously close to Florida's east coast.
Photos
CUBA - Double the average rainfall in October has already filled reservoirs in eastern Cuba to the brim and authorities worried about flooding.

OMAN is bracing itself for the possibility of another tropical cyclone but this time it could be of a lesser intensity and hit the south of the country. In June this year tropical Cyclone Gonu struck Oman's eastern coast, Muscat and the northern parts of the country, causing extensive damage and loss of lives, particularly due to flooding that followed torrential rain for three days. The winds then reached over 70 knots. In this cyclone, currently unnamed and known as tropical cyclone 05a, meteorological officials expect winds to reach around 40 knots. "At the moment the storm has winds of around 25 knots." The storm could hit the southern Omani coast around Thursday. "The storm is expected to bring with it thunder, heavy rain and subsequent flooding in the Dhofar region." (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Vicious storms with winds equal to a category three cyclone have lashed towns in central and southeast Queensland. The broad area of storm cells brought wind gusts of 180km per hour to Gayndah in the north Burnett region, where four houses were unroofed, tree branches brought down and fuel tanks tipped over properties. The area was also hit by heavy rain. The area's main business centre was also hard hit by another storm, with about 32 calls for help to the State Emergency Services. Wind speeds in Emerald hit 144km/h and hail the diameter of a 50 cent coin was reported. The storms follow wild weather earlier in the day across the southeast.
The WORST FLOODING IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS hit the Appila plains on Tuesday afternoon – devastating farmers already ravaged by five consecutive years of drought. About four inches of rain fell in The Hog's Head in a two-hour spate on Tuesday – when it reached Appila it washed fences away and filled others with debris. They lost acres of crops. While most of the water flowed away, it had left a lot of silt behind, along with ruining fences. Because damage was hit and miss throughout the Mid North it was expected to take a week before the full damage was known.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.
Albert Camus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/29/07 -
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.3 WESTERN TURKEY

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MAN-MADE PROBLEM - IRAQ's largest dam is in serious danger of collapse and up to 500,000 people could die if it does, an alarming US assessment has found. US officials concluded that Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, could be left under almost 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad could be under 4.5 metres. "The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability." A U.S. project to strengthen the dam has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement. The dam, built in the early 1980s, has major structural problems because it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water. Millions of tonnes of material have been applied to the dam wall to shore it up since then, but US officials say the structure still represents a very significant threat.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Lava flowing from a new vent on Kilauea's eastern flank is now feeding into a lava tube that could allow it to flow farther and faster. Geologists say the formation of lava tubes can be worrisome because they insulate the lava, which has advanced 1.5 miles from the end of the open lava channel. But Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's daily assessment maintains that there's no immediate threat. That means thousands of lower Puna residents currently remain at a safe distance. There needs to be a steady supply of lava for it to travel a long distance, but the level of the channel has fluctuated over time. Kilauea has been erupting for 24 years. On July 21, a new outbreak of lava occurred to the east of Puu Oo vent. It was the first time lava erupted in the area outside Hawaii Volcanoes National Park since 1992.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 612 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 82 nmi NNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - At least 13 people have been killed in flooding in the Dominican Republic following torrential rains dumped by Tropical Storm Noel. The deaths were reported in the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, and along the south coast. It is feared the death toll will rise, with several others reported missing. The storm was expected to pour 25-50cm (10-20in) of rain on the Dominican Republic and neighbouring Haiti. By early Monday evening (2100 GMT) the centre of the storm had passed and was heading north-west, past the eastern tip of Cuba towards the Bahamas. However, on the island of Hispaniola - divided between the Dominican Republic and Haiti - rain continued to fall, forcing river levels higher. Several bridges were reported to have collapsed, cutting off communities. Hundreds of people were being evacuated, amid fears of flash floods and landslides. Farmers have suffered big losses and numerous areas have lost power. While there were not as yet any reports of fatalities from Haiti, the country often suffers worse from flooding than its neighbour because so much of it has been deforested. The town of Cabaret, north of the capital Port-au-Prince was being evacuated. "It's very serious now. It's moving very slowly and dropping a lot of rain."

A tropical storm watch is not being issued for SE Florida at this time. High wind watches are already in effect for several counties due to the expectation of an increasing pressure gradient produced by the combination of a strong surface high building over the eastern U.S. and the approach of Noel. A tropical storm watch may still be required for SE Florida early today, depending on the forecast track and wind radii of the tropical storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAWI - Meteorologists in Malawi are warning of possible flooding during the rainy season which runs from November to March. The heavy rains would be caused by a weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean called La Niña. It’s defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures that affect global weather patterns, with one result being increased moisture in southern Africa. Some doubt the accuracy of the forecast – saying past predictions have been wrong.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

OHIO - 'Confused' trees sprouting buds - extreme conditions have not only weakened trees, they have confused them. Several days of soaking rains and mild temperatures in the past week here have prompted some trees to bloom. The reason actually traces back to this summer's drought. Trees reacted to the hot, dry weather - the area got just over five inches of rain total for all of May, June, July and August, a four-period that recorded 39 days of 90 degrees or hotter - by going dormant, just as they do in the winter. Now, the weather of the last week has triggered a spring-like reawakening in some trees. Flowering fruit trees, like cherry, crab apple and pear, are especially susceptible to blooming now. "It was almost like spring time again." The same thing is happening to trees in Mississippi. Not all trees blooming early will die. Older trees that have established root systems generally fare better during weather-related trials. But they likely will have lower bloom counts next spring.

NEW YORK - A mild autumn is keeping trees greener longer - New York City's greenest borough is a lot less colorful this year. Missing are the blood reds, golden yellows and bright oranges that normally dominate autumn. Lingering summer-like weather preserved a mostly green scene among tens of thousands of Staten Island trees, delaying by two to three weeks the fall foliage colors that normally appear here in late October. Temperatures soaring into the 70s and 80s for much of this month, coupled with warmer-than-normal nights and a late-summer drought, have kept the leaves green longer than normal. "This warm weather, it's just not normal." Besides the delay in the appearance of fall colors, their intensity will be less dramatic when they change color. The UNUSUALLY warm and dry weather in the last couple of months has been "tricking" trees into thinking it's still August or September. "All this additional sunshine is pretty much keeping the leaves green on the trees. This UNUSUAL warm weather has fooled a lot of these trees." The lack of rain - 2.4 inches below normal in September and below normal for most of October - has caused many branches to lose moisture and leaves to crumple up and fall off before even changing color. The unusual fall weather is not just affecting trees and leaf-peepers. Fall planting season, which runs from Oct. 15 to Dec. 15, is being delayed because the soil is so dry and the air so warm.

PENNSYLVANIA - Lancaster County residents have sweated their way through what will be THE WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD, a month when two days in the 90s set records for high temperatures. When all is said and done, even with the cooler weather predicted for this week, this month's average temperature will be about 9 degrees above normal, shattering the record of the previously warmest October in 1964. By this time of year, their first frost usually happened two weeks ago. But, with Halloween just days away, roses and begonias still are blooming. The summery fall has been caused by the persistence of a Bermuda high pattern, which leads to warm, dry weather. Also credit the La Nina weather pattern, a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that creates milder and drier weather in the Northeast. The delayed fall has followed the curious pattern of this year's seasons. Winter started things off by arriving late, with the first 1-inch snow not falling until Feb. 2. Snow continued to fall into March, and April was 3 degrees chillier, making for a later start to spring as well. Summer also took its own sweet time in arriving, delayed by a cool June. The absence of fall has been noted by local gardeners. Clematis are blooming, it normally blooms in the spring. "Things are sort of confused." Grass still is growing and outdoor flower containers still look good.

NEW JERSEY - October is usually the start of cool, crisp days, but instead the hot weather stayed on, creating extremely warm and wet conditions. The average monthly temperature as of Sunday was 66.4 degrees, about 10.7 degrees higher than normal. Atlantic City HIT A RECORD 90 degrees Oct. 7 and 89 degrees Oct. 8. The total amount of rainfall also was higher than normal, about 4.76 inches, 2.3 inches above normal. The cause for the uncommon warmth was a strong warm air front that was stuck over the eastern part of the country. "Low (temperature air) pressures would approach, but it would get bumped away. ... So it stayed warmer longer." The ocean also stayed warmer than normal, in the lower 60s instead of the upper 50s, as a result of the high air temperature. It was VERY UNUSUAL for the hot air ridge to stay in that pattern. The warm patterns impacted the fall fish migration. Last weekend, a triggerfish was caught, a species that is normally found in warm, tropical waters. The first fall frosts usually dust the region around Oct. 15 on the mainland and a few weeks later on the shoreline. This season, there hasn't been a deep freeze yet, and the warmth prolonged the harvest season for some vegetables and fruits. Trees and lawns were stressed by the heat and instead of staying bright green, some grasses and leaves turned brown this month. With the recent heavy rains, the lawns and trees have reverted to green. "It's certainly an UNUSUAL fall. I haven't seen it this warm, not the 70s and 80s."

CANADA - Frost is missing in action, SETTING A RECORD for its absence from the London region. "Not in my recollection have I seen a season of this length." Environment Canada data shows the London area has already experienced ONE OF THE LONGEST GROWING SEASONS ON RECORD and there was no sign of frost until Monday. Although it varies from year to year, London usually has its last frost day in the spring on May 8 and its first frost in the fall on Oct. 5, working out to an average of 149 frost-free days. But this year, the last frost to hit London was on April 14, three weeks ahead of the average date. And although the temperature dipped toward the freezing mark Sept. 16 and Oct. 12, it never crossed the line to bring the growing and lawn-cutting season to its usual frosty end. By Thursday, the 25th, the area had 194 frost-free days and counting. Over the past century, the climate in Southwestern Ontario has warmed by 0.5 degrees C, enough to lengthen the frost-free season by more than 18 days since the 1940s. That has helped farmers and home gardeners, who have faced less risk of losing their crops before they mature. But agriculture experts and climatologists warn the longer season without freezing temperatures has the potential for both good and bad. "It is not necessarily a good news story . . . how it will play out is still guesswork." Though the longer season may benefit crops, it means the climate is becoming less stable. There is the possibility of extreme weather events, droughts and ground-level ozone. "It may extend the smog season quite a bit, too." The longer growing season lessens the risk of farmers losing their crops, but it is unpredictable. If farmers knew ahead of time it was going to be a long season, they could plant higher-yielding varieties that take longer to mature. But they don't know. And there has to be the right conditions to go with the warmth, such as adequate rainfall. A few farmers gamble each year and double-crop, planting beans, for instance, after they take their wheat crop in July. This year those farmers lost because it didn't rain. The longer growing season when it is warm also increases the potential for insect damage. Another downside is with crops such as pumpkins that ripen early. It is then a challenge to keep them in good shape until Halloween.

Monday, October 29, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
He who strikes the first blow admits he's lost the argument.
Chinese Proverb

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/28/07 -
None 5.0 or higher.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
The Minoans created extraordinary artifacts for hundreds of years, revealing an aesthetic sensibility that influences Western civilization to this day. Then they simply disappeared. Scholars are seeking answers to one of the great mysteries of the ancient world: What happened to the Minoans of Crete, who controlled a thriving Mediterranean trade network from around 2,200-1,450 BC? NOVA reports on new evidence that a massive tsunami struck the Bronze Age society 3,500 years ago, destabilizing the culture to such a degree that social chaos brought about its ultimate destruction. “It was clear that after the ash from the Thera volcano had dusted the town, a gigantic tsunami hit Palaikastro Bay.” The tidal wave was “terrifyingly destructive,” perhaps larger than the Indian Ocean tsunami that hit Banda Aceh in 2004. A revised computer model now suggests that the wave generated by the Thera eruption was 10 times larger, wider, longer than originally estimated. When it hit Palaikastro, it may have been around 15 meters high.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 599 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm NOEL was 75 nmi S of Port Au Prince, Haiti.

Officials in Haiti feared flash floods would hit impoverished areas of the nation early today, as Tropical Storm Noel lashed the country with heavy rains. Noel, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, was projected to reach Haiti and the Dominican Republic — which share the island of Hispaniola — this morning before heading on toward Cuba. The strengthening Caribbean storm, which formed into a tropical storm Sunday, poses a serious threat to Haiti, where floods killed at least 37 earlier this month. Noel had sustained winds of about 50 mph (80 kph) and its outer bands were dumping rain over Hispaniola overnight. The meandering storm was spinning north-northwest at roughly 6 mph (10 kph), on a projected track that would bring its center near the southeastern peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm warning was issued for the entire Haitian coastline and parts of neighboring Dominican Republic's southern coast. Noel, with tropical storm force winds fanning 140 miles (225 kilometers) from its center, could drop 10 to 20 inches (25-50 centimeters) of water on Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba and Jamaica. Dominican authorities said at least 600 people had been evacuated as the storm touched off landslides, flooded rivers and pushed storm surges onto Santo Domingo's seaside boulevard. Swollen rivers also forced evacuations in Cabaret, a town north of Port-au-Prince where floods killed at least 23 people earlier this month. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch were issued for southeastern parts of Cuba, including the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay.
Florida Division of Emergency Management officials cautioned that the forecast track was highly uncertain due to varying environmental conditions surrounding the storm and advised residents and visitors to south Florida and the Key to monitor future forecasts. Hurricane experts at Colorado State University are forecasting a very active end to the 2007 hurricane season. In an updated forecast released on Oct. 2, they call for four named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane to form during the months of October and November. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concur that the end of the season could be active. (see the link for a 2007 hurricane season summary, so far)

INDIA - A cyclone is expected to make landfall near the coastal Kavali area in Andhra Pradesh this afternoon. Yesterday, the weather office said the cyclone was 200 kilometers southeast of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone is expected to bring more rain and strong winds in Chennai and surrounding areas. Authorities have ordered schools and colleges to close today. Heavy showers have been lashing Chennai and neighbouring areas for two days leaving the roads flooded. Chennai was a victim of continuous rainfall on Sunday. What's worse, there is no respite at least for the next two days - that's according to the Met department. Fatalities in the showers have risen to 25. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - At least five people were killed in the series of landslides caused by heavy rainfall on Saturday, in the province of Catanduanes, in the eastern Philippines, officials said on Sunday. Several provinces in Catanduanes experienced landslides, which blocked some roads in the area. The heavy rainfall was caused by a Pacific Ocean low pressure area, which was about 25 miles north of Catanduanes province.

Sunday, October 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When anger rises, think of the consequences.
Confucius

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/27/07 -
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 ECUADOR
5.2 FIJI REGION
5.1 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.1 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
10/26/07 -
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.4 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.4 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR

PAKISTAN - A girl was killed and 12 villagers injured when a mild intensity earthquake hit Gangche district’s Qundus village in the Baltistan region late on Friday. Tremors were felt at around 12am on Friday, intermittent tremors continued till 4am on Saturday. At least 410 houses in five villages had been partially damaged and 12 villagers were injured. All roads leading to the villages were damaged in the quake. The villagers are living in the open in below zero temperatures and are reluctant to return to their homes. The intensity of quake was 5.2 on the richter scale and its centre was in Azad Kashmir.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
VIETNAM - Ho Chi Minh City will see RECORD HIGH TIDES within the next few days and can expect widespread flooding if the predicted heavy rains appear at the same time. The Southern Hydrometeorology Station says the Saigon and Dong Nai rivers will peak between Friday and Monday and reach 1.49 meters at Phu An on Sunday. As large volumes of water are released from the dams, outlying areas of the city should experience flooding during this period. The swollen waters could even breach embankments. In the already devastated central region, river levels in Binh Dinh, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, Quang Ngai and Phu Yen reached alarming levels on Thursday, and the rivers in Quang Nam, Ninh Thuan and Gia Lai were continuing to rise. Heavy rain in Khanh Hoa put many roads 30 centimeters underwater and disrupted traffic severely. The storms also caused landslides in Da Lat in the highlands and generated twisters in Quang Nam farther up the coast. Heavy flooding has been hitting all parts of the country since last month, making hundreds of families homeless and inundating large areas of agricultural land.



VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - THIRD VOLCANO BECOMES ACTIVE - ANAK KRAKATOA - The Indonesian volcano known as the "Child of Krakatoa" has been spewing ash and smoke, prompting warnings of a possible eruption. The mountain in the Sunda Strait, 130 kilometres west of Jakarta, formed after the giant Krakatoa eruption of 1883 that killed tens of thousands of people and was the largest explosion in recorded history. "Activity at Anak Krakatoa increased yesterday [Friday] and there were several small eruptions. We have upgraded the alert level to the second highest." Anak Krakatoa is the third volcano to become active in recent weeks in Indonesia, a sprawling country of more than 17,000 islands. Indonesia has about 150 volcanoes. Krakatoa's massive 1883 blast, heard nearly 3,200 kilometres away in Australia, sent pyroclastic surges of gas and burning ash which, combined with a tsunami, wiped out 165 villages and killed at least 36,417 people. It destroyed two-thirds of the island of Krakatoa between Java and Sumatra.
Krakatau normally produces five tremors per hour. From Oct. 24 to 26, experts detected 20 tremors an hour. The volcano also spewed white-grey smoke plumes 80 to 200 meters high. Lava flow is yet to be seen so the status is not yet critical. The last time Krakatau was put on alert status was in 2000, when it emitted lava.

INDONESIA - MOUNT KELUT - A scientist warned on Wednesday that all indications pointed to the imminent eruption of Mount Kelut volcano on the Indonesian island of Java, despite few obvious signs of activity. Mount Kelut was put on high alert on October 16, triggering efforts to evacuate about 130,000 people living within 10 kilometres (six miles) of its crater. The mountain has been quiet for the past few days, with no drastic changes in the frequency and magnitude of volcanic and tectonic quakes affecting the area. The signs leading to an eruption usually follow the same pattern. "The trend is that the centers of the shallow volcanic quakes are moving closer and closer to the surface, and this is the normal pattern prior to an eruption. "They (the quake centers) are now less than one kilometre beneath the crater's floor but the mountain will only erupt when these are accompanied by shallow quakes of large amplitude and long, continuous tremors." Some villagers said they would not evacuate until told to do so by the 64-year-old spiritual leader. Geologists have said they expect an eruption of Kelut would lead to "heat clouds," searing gasses and volcanic debris rushing down the slopes. Kelud's temperature continued to rise on Friday, an indication that an eruption is imminent.

INDONESIA - MOUNT SOPUTAN - The erupting volcano on Indonesia's Sulawesi island began spewing hot lava on Friday, a day after shooting ash some 1,500m into the air, an official said, although nearby villages were still not being ordered to evacuate. Mount Soputan volcano, which lies in North Sulawesi province, likely was producing a small lava flow, but authorities were unable to spot it because the crater remained covered by clouds. Soputan has been at a Level 3 alert since its last eruption in December 2006 due to its "short duration activity" - meaning it only experiences tremors for short periods before erupting, as was the case on Thursday morning. A Level 4 alert is only given when an active volcano is threatening the safety of people living nearby, but the villages closest to Soputan are eight kilometres away. "Historically, the lava trails from this mountain are a maximum of three kilometres."

New evidence dug from the shores of the Bay of Bengal supports the radical idea that it was a series of monumental volcanic eruptions that wiped out the dinosaurs, not a meteor impact in the Gulf of Mexico.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05A was 636 nmi SW of Bombay, India.
Tropical depression 16 was 137 nmi SSW of Barahona, Dominican Republic.

JAPAN - Typhoon Faxai, packing winds of up to 144km/h, was churning off Japan's main island in the Pacific Ocean, heading for the Tokyo region on Saturday. Typhoon Faxai was located 300km south of Tokyo and was moving northeast at 85km/h. "Faxai" is expected to bring strong winds, the national weather agency said, warning of heavy rain and possible landslides in eastern Japan. The typhoon is expected to leave Japan by early Monday. Earlier this month, Typhoon Fitow hit eastern and northern Japan, killing at least two people and injuring 82 others.

A tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean was pelting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti with rains and gusty winds on Friday. The area of low pressure remains disorganized and upper level winds currently are not favorable for development. However, it's possible the system could strengthen as it moves into the western Caribbean. Computer models are in disagreement where the area might ultimately go, as some point it toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the Gulf of Mexico, while others indicate it might curve northeast back out to sea. At 5:30 p.m. on Friday, the disturbance was centered about 170 miles south of Santo Domingo, in the Dominican Republic, moving west, southwest at about 15 to 20 mph. The hurricane center also was monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, saying there currently are no signs of development.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - At least 30 people have died and 100 been injured in flooding in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Heavy rain caused waterways to burst their banks, washing away roads and bridges and knocking down power lines. Some of the victims were electrocuted, others drowned or were crushed when their homes collapsed. Officials said the number of people killed could rise as relief workers reach districts cut off by the floods. The torrential rain began falling late on Thursday and continued until Friday morning. A particularly heavy rainy season across a broad stretch of Africa since June has led to the worst floods in 30 years. The latest floods in the DR Congo brings the number killed to more than 400. Two million people across the continent have been affected, with many requiring shelter and food aid.

AUSTRALIA - A FREAK tornado with winds up to 150 kmh that tore through a northern NSW village was ONE OF THE RAREST WEATHER EVENTS TO HAPPEN IN A POPULATED AREA OF AUSTRALIA. The tornado rampaged through the village of Dunoon after clipping nearby Lismore, causing millions of dollars in damage. Destructive twisters are more commonly associated with the Midwest of the United States, and RARELY seen by Australians. The tornado came out of the bottom of a thunderstorm about 4pm on Friday. Large hailstones and destructive winds were battering Dunoon, Lismore, Byron Bay and Mullumbimby.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Residents hit by the deadly California wildfires have been warned to beware of extremely hazardous air quality. Residents in five southern counties were urged to stay indoors due to pollution levels that are three times higher than normal. The fires dumped into the atmosphere the equivalent greenhouse gas emissions that 440,000 cars would emit over a one year period. Officials confirmed 640,000 people had fled their homes, the biggest mass evacuation in California's history. At least 14 people died as a result of the fires. Damage in San Diego county alone is estimated at about $1bn (£487m), with nearly 800 sq miles (2,072 sq km) of land scorched. At least 1,800 homes and other buildings have been destroyed. About 23,000 homes are still at risk from five major fires across three counties but many blazes have now been contained. The central San Bernardino Mountains, parts of the San Bernardino Valley and areas in Orange and Riverside Counties are badly affected. Satellite photographs revealed thick smoke over much of southern California. "This is still a very fluid situation that's going to go on for a number of days."

A United Nations expert has condemned the growing use of crops to produce biofuels as a crime against humanity. He fears biofuels will bring more hunger. The growth in the production of biofuels has helped to push the price of some crops to record levels. He complained of the ill-conceived dash to convert foodstuffs such as maize and sugar into fuel, which created a recipe for disaster. It was, he said, a crime against humanity to divert arable land to the production of crops which are then burned for fuel. He called for a five-year ban on the practice. Within that time, technological advances should enable the use of agricultural waste such as corn cobs and banana leaves, rather than crops themselves, to produce fuel.

SPACE WEATHER -
SOUTH DAKOTA - 10/25/07 - A large object was seen falling in the southeast sky Thursday morning, leading to speculation among some that it was a meteor. Law officers in the Sioux Falls area spotted the brilliant object falling to Earth at about 7:50 a.m. It left a wide trail as it descended. Though it wasn't known what the object was, meteor activity right now is high. A major shower (the Orionids) is active most of the month along with several minor showers, reaching maximum activity on Oct. 21. The Orionids are actually trail debris left over from Haley's Comet. Orionids meteors are visible from many parts of the country.
In the Puget Sound region of Washington this week, a motorist reported seeing a streak of light, then a flash, at 6:30 in the morning, according to a report from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Comet Holmes - Astronomers around the world agree, Comet 17P/Holmes is ONE OF THE STRANGEST THINGS EVER TO EXPLODE IN THE NIGHT SKY. It's a comet, yet it looks like a planet with a golden core and a green atmosphere. Comet Holmes shocked sky watchers with a spectacular eruption, brightening almost a million-fold from 17th to 2.5th magnitude in a matter of hours. The comet is now visible to the naked eye - even from light polluted cities - high in the northern sky after sunset. The golden hue of Holmes' core is probably the color of sunlight scattered by comet dust, while the green fringe likely signifies an atmosphere rich in diatomic carbon and cyanogen (substances found in many green comets). There are reports that the fuzzball is expanding and taking on a lopsided shape - possibly the first signs of a tail. Exploding Comet 17P/Holmes is now larger than Jupiter. The diaphanous and curiously spherical cloud surrounding the comet's core is now large enough to swallow the King of Planets! It's gotten so big, in fact, that many observers say they can see it without a telescope.

Friday, October 26, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What another would have done as well as you, do not do it.
What another would have said as well as you, do not say it.
What another would have written as well, do not write it.
Be faithful to that which exists nowhere but in yourself -
and thus make yourself indispensible.
Andre Gide

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/25/07 -
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -
CANADA - Intense volcanic activity appears to be behind hundreds of tremors in British Columbia's Central Interior, but the chance of a volcanic eruption is minimal, experts say. Attention was drawn to an area about 100 kilometres west of Quesnel when a series of micro-quakes reaching a magnitude of 2.7 were recorded over a number of days early in October. A group of experts agree that the micro-quakes were likely caused by magma, or liquid rock, deep in the Earth's crust in the region around the Nazko Cone, a small dormant volcano west of Quesnel. They said the intensity has levelled off to an ongoing series of micro-quakes — about 50 to 60 per day — with a magnitude of 1.0 to 1.5, but that the risk of a volcanic eruption remained low. The Nazko Cone is considered to be the easternmost volcano in the Anahim Volcanic Belt, a 600-kilometre-long line of volcanic activity that runs from the northern tip of Vancouver Island to the Quesnel area.

ITALY - New Zealand and American scientists will join Italian colleagues next week for the first-ever systematic investigation of submarine hydrothermal activity in the Mediterranean Sea. Over the past nine years they have found up to 60% of the 90 submarine volcanoes between the Bay of Plenty and Tonga are hydrothermally active. This means hot mineral-rich fluids are being expelled into the sea at about 55 of the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc. In addition, metal-rich mineral deposits and communities of unusual marine life occur at many of these seafloor vents. The focus in the Mediterranean is the Aeolian Arc, a near-circular chain of about a dozen submarine volcanoes north of Sicily. The project will shed light on the area’s marine geology, which is not well understood. The area has a rich volcanic history and is known as the cradle of volcanology. The cluster of volcanoes located around the Tyrrhenian Sea – Vesuvius, Etna and Stromboli – have been producing spectacular and destructive eruptions for thousands of years. Mt Etna in Sicily, the largest and most active volcano in Europe, is presently erupting. Stromboli is one of the most active volcanoes on Earth and has been in nearly continuous eruption for about 2000 years. It has given its name to a particular type of eruption – a strombolian eruption. Ancient seafarers knew it as the ‘torch of the Mediterranean’.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FAXAI was 229 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Wednesday’s ‘low’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Tamil Nadu spun westwards to cross the extreme south peninsula and emerged into the warmer waters of southeast Arabian Sea on Thursday. An India Meteorological Department update said that the system is likely to become marked in the next two days. This is the very system that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts bets will become a strong tropical cyclone. For the third successive day, the ECMWF persisted with the cyclone forecast, signalling increasing levels of confidence about the eventuality. The warm waters in the basin will fuel the system engine, while the upper-level anticyclone over north India will fan bands of northeasterlies across to turn as helpful northerlies over the west Arabian Sea. Current meteorological analysis suggests that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the south peninsula, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep would sustain for three more days. Meanwhile, a fresh ‘low’ is shown to break out over the southeast Bay of Bengal around Saturday. This will bring a fresh pulse of heavy showers over the south peninsula from Monday next. The causative system will gradually intensify into a depression and is shown to barrel into the north Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast. This part of the southeast coast, including Chennai, has remained out of bounds for the rampaging rain bands towards the south and extreme south. This is because cyclonic circulations and ‘lows’ from the Bay have traversed a southerly track pre-determined by the rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Only the stronger ones can hope to break out and carry the ITCZ along in a north-northwest direction targeting the north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. Meanwhile, the La Nina has intensified over the equatorial Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are expected to rule the South China Sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
KENTUCKY - Louisville had its HEAVIEST TWO-DAY OCTOBER RAINFALL ON RECORD Monday and Tuesday.

MINNESOTA - the University of Minnesota's St. Paul campus reported that the first 16 days of October were THE CLOUDIEST STRETCH FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR IN 45 YEARS that the observatory has been measuring solar radiation, measuring less than three-quarters of average. The 18.91 inches of rain that fell in the Twin Cities during August, September and October SET A RECORD FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD - well before October ends. The drought has been retreating, particularly in the past week, having largely disappeared along the Canadian border and the North Shore of Lake Superior. It continues to hang on stubbornly in a pocket of central Minnesota, near Wadena County. That news is good for the state's farmers, already looking toward next year's growing season, though the recent rains came too late to have much effect on this year's crops. An exceptionally wet early fall says precisely nothing about the coming winter. "The pattern could break any day now, or it could hang around awhile."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - US border patrol agents discovered four charred bodies in rugged mountains near the Mexican border, bringing the probable death toll from California's wildfires to 12, even as firefighters gained the upper hand in their five-day battle.

TEXAS - A top climate scientist warned Wednesday that Texas faces a dual threat from floods and drought if global warming is left unchecked. Predictions made two decades ago about the effects of a warming world are now beginning to come true. "Texas is in the line of fire for double-barreled climate impacts. What we said in the 1980s, and is beginning to come true now, is that both ends of the hydrological cycle get intensified by global warming." A warmer climate increases evaporation. It both sucks moisture from the ground, intensifying drought, and increases atmospheric humidity, which causes more rain to fall during extreme events. It remains possible — and not entirely painful — for nations to tackle global warming. The most important step would be to prohibit the construction of coal-fired power plants until technology is developed to capture carbon dioxide produced during the coal-burning process. Coal remains a popular energy source with electricity providers, because it is a cheap source of power and the United States has abundant supplies. However, coal burning is also the worst producer of the greenhouse gases that, scientists say, are causing the planet to warm. A second step would be to gradually adopt a fee for carbon dioxide emissions. Although this would raise the price of energy, it would spur companies to develop alternative energy sources such as wind and solar.

BURKINA FASO - After deadly floods that hit Burkina Faso weeks ago, the impoverished west African country faces a drought caused by an early and abrupt end to the rainy season. Fears run high that the weak rains will have a knock-on effect on food prices and would inevitably affect the next cotton harvests. The meteorological services bureau reported a "premature end" to the rains in September when crops were beginning to flower in the west, southwest and the south of the country and just before they matured in the northern parts of the country. "Starting from the second half of September, we have registered a drastic drop in the intensity of the rains."

CANADA - Wednesday was THE WARMEST DAY ON RECORD for October 24th in a total of 6 Saskatchewan centres.

The forecast is for increasingly volatile and unpredictable weather patterns "that are UNPRECEDENTED since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Our experiential framework doesn't encompass these cataclysmic events. We just assume the future will echo the past. The world is changing. Extremely rapidly. All the management rules have been built around the assumption of a stationary climate. For the foreseeable future, for generations to come, change is what we need to manage, not the status quo." In the U.S., by noon Wednesday, more than 666 square miles of the Southern California tinderbox - Los Angeles went 150 consecutive days this year without rain - had been charcoaled. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is at its LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS. And drought continues to devastate the southeast, particularly in Alabama and Georgia, where the folks at Coca-Cola are increasingly "concerned" about sustaining their bottling operation. Will we do better, before water shortages and the climate crisis swallow us whole? Because the dry subtropic zone is expanding, pushing the jet stream and western Oregon's traditional drizzle zone farther north, the Northwest may experience alternating decades of dampness and drought that wreak havoc on the landscape. And as we reach the limits of available water, available food and available space, the conflicts between the haves and have-nots will turn brutal. The 2002 fish kill in the Klamath River "is just the tip of the iceberg." "We can continue to worship before the altar of the status quo or get off our knees and begin wrestling with this runaway change. We can bridle the beast or be stampeded by it, but we can no longer pretend the horse hasn't left the barn."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Continuing destruction of the natural world is affecting the health, wealth and well-being of people around the globe, according to a major UN report. The Global Environment Outlook says most trends are going the wrong way. It lists degradation of farmland, loss of forest cover, pollution, dwindling fresh water supplies and overfishing among society's environmental ills. There is a "remarkable lack of urgency" to reverse these trends. "There continue to be persistent and intractable problems unresolved and unaddressed. This assault on the global environment risks undermining the many advances human society has made. Past issues remain and new ones are emerging, from the rapid rise of oxygen 'dead zones' in the oceans to the resurgence of new and old diseases linked in part with environmental degradation." The well-being of millions of people in the developing world is put at risk by failure to remedy problems which have been tackled in richer societies. "This assault on the global environment risks undermining the many advances human society has made in recent decades. It is undercutting our fight against poverty. It could even come to jeopardise international peace and security."

Thursday, October 25, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished;
and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in its way.
Henry David Thoreau

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/24/07 -
5.1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
7.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 CENTRAL PERU

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Soputan volcano on the northern tip of Indonesia's Sulawesi island has erupted, throwing columns of ash 1,000 meters (3,300 ft) into the air. The eruption did not appear to pose an immediate threat to residents, although ash had reached the nearest town. "From the data that we have, it is only spraying ash without other volcanic material." A few days ago the volcano was calm. The nearest village to Soputan, 2,175 km (1,351 miles) northeast of the capital Jakarta, is located 11 km from its crater. In August, Soputan also spewed ash and rocks. A local official said that no evacuation had been ordered. Last week, authorities evacuated more than 100,000 residents living within a 10-km (6-mile) zone around Mount Kelud volcano in eastern Java after warning it was liable to erupt.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

A monsoon ‘low’ has popped up over the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka, even as the India Meteorological Department forecast the formation of a successor system over the southeast Bay around Saturday. The prevailing ‘low’ is tipped to move north-northwest, cross the peninsula and slither into the southeast Arabian Sea where it will resuscitate the remnants of a cyclonic circulation. By the weekend, the combined entity will undergo intensification first into a depression. According to international weather models, the system will feed on the warm seawaters in the east and central Arabian Sea to power its way into the status of a likely tropical cyclone. The helpful wind circulation associated with the anticyclone will help it steer across in a north-northwest direction and slam into the Oman coast in due course. [following the path Cyclone Gomu took earlier this year.] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been consistently showing a strong system (likely a named tropical cyclone) treading close to southern Oman around October 30th. Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal continues to witness convective forcing from across the territorial waters with a moisture pipeline extending from the South China Sea and the Indonesia Sea. The ‘low’ expected to break out over the southeast Bay (Andaman Sea) holds the promise of setting up a strong system in the Bay. Given the considerable distance that it would need to traverse in a decidedly north-northwest direction, the system could set up a monsoon depression, the first of the season in the Bay basin. Its behaviour will be closely watched for signs of intensification into a still stronger system. The consensus forecast is for a strong `low’ (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slightly slower to form than earlier thought. The prevailing ‘low’ in the southwest Bay will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are also likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala during the same period. The Karaikal-Nagapattinam-Vedaranniyam belt in Tamil Nadu was battered by punishing rains as the ‘low’ became entrenched around the area of genesis on Tuesday. Puducherry also received widespread rain overnight. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast for most places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north interior Karnataka.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
GULF OF MEXICO - At least 10 people died after two oil platforms crashed into each other in high winds in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a gas leak that forced the evacuation of all workers in the area. 58 of 81 Pemex employees and contract workers on the oil rig had been rescued, including five sailors taking part in the rescue operation. Pemex did not say what had happened to the other people unaccounted for, but there were eight helicopters and four ships from the Mexican navy searching the area for survivors. The accident occurred late on Tuesday amid high winds and heavy seas when the two platforms crashed into each other. "Due to wind gusts of up to 130km/h and waves of 6m-8m ... the Usumacinta drilling platform struck the valve train of Kab-101 platform. Weather conditions in the are have made it impossible to reach an emergency life boat that has already been spotted and which we presume could be carrying the staff that was working on the platforms." The crash triggered some fires around the damaged platforms.

COSTA RICA - Since 12 October, Costa Rica has been affected by various atmospheric disturbances such as the passing of a tropical wave and a direct influence of a low pressure system. These events have provoked intense and continuous rain in the Pacific coast area and the central valley causing floods in the communities of the Brunca, Huetar Norte, Los Santos, Central Pacific and Chorotega regions. The rains are still affecting the entire country. The National Meteorology Institute forecasts strong to moderate rain throughout the entire Pacific slope.

COLUMBIA - A total of 43,200 people have been affected in October by intense rains affecting almost all Colombia in the winter season which started this month. Heavy rains have caused ravages in 39 municipalities in 18 of the 32 Colombian departments. The main affectations are due to floods that have affected hundreds of houses and cultivation areas, landslides, and overflowing of rivers and streams. The Institute of Meteorology and Environment Studies warned that intense rains would affect the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions of Colombia up to Saturday. Some zones at the center of Colombia would be affected with electric storms and some other things.

BRAZIL - Heavy rain wreaked havoc in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday, causing a mudslide that cut off the main tunnel linking the Brazilian city's north and south. An average of 180,000 vehicles go through the Reboucas Tunnel every day and its closing caused huge traffic jams across the city. Five mudslides since late Tuesday had left some 5,000 tonnes of debris in tunnels and there was a risk of more collapses. The Reboucas Tunnel, more than 2 kilometres long, could be closed for up to a week. Power was cut off in some neighbourhoods, causing further traffic jams as traffic lights did not work.

THAILAND - No districts were left unaffected when more than 10,000 houses were damaged yesterday by floods which swept across most of Chumphon province. An active low pressure trough just above the southern region caused the heavy rainfall. Four lanes of highway 41 in Thung Tako district were covered by 20-40 centimetres of water yesterday morning, bringing traffic to a standstill. In the Central province of Sing Buri, already reeling from earlier floods, more than 591 monks in 39 temples in In Buri, Muang, and Phrom Buri districts are facing food shortages after being left stranded by high floodwaters and a lack of boats. The Royal Irrigation Department reduced the amount of water being released through Bangkok from 3,000 to 2,800 cubic metres per second to try and avert possible flooding in the capital. However, people should still be on alert for possible floods between Sunday and Wednesday due to high tides, the city governor warned.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Cooler, moist air from the Pacific Ocean helped fire crews fight back against wildfires blazing across Southern California Wednesday, giving firefighters a chance to hold the line of flames from nearing more communities.
The wind-driven infernos that are scarring vast swaths of Southern California's landscape may leave more than just a temporary path of destruction when they are finally extinguished. Because they have struck some regions still trying to recover from recent burns, the wildfires could leave a legacy of environmental devastation that will be evident for years to come. Some of it may never be reversed. Scientists say the changes could be profound, especially in areas that have been scorched multiple times in recent years. Invasive weeds and grasses could crowd out native plants and shrubs. In turn, that could speed erosion and lead to more frequent wildfires. Small birds, rabbits and other animals dependent on California's rapidly disappearing native vegetation will struggle to maintain a foothold, while some endangered species will find themselves locked into increasingly imperiled islands of refuge. Scientists say it will take years to know the extent of the long-term damage. California's natural landscape is engineered to benefit from periodic fires. Many native plants actually need fires to germinate. But wildfires are on the rise, in both frequency and intensity, in part because of hotter, drier conditions. If a fire recurs in an area within five to 10 years, the hardy native shrubs may not get the chance to mature and create seeds. Exotic weed-like grasses that germinate quickly can fill in areas faster than natives can recover. "The big problem with these big fires is they just increase the chance of a repeat fire."

In an apparent attempt to downplay the effects of climate change, the White House Office of Management and Budget (aka, The Ministry of Truth) gouged the text of testimony given by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this week. CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding's testimony, providing scientific details about the nature of diseases that will spread should the Earth continue to warm, was cut in half by the White House. A CDC insider told the AP that while some changes were customary, the edits to Gerberding's original draft were especially "heavy-handed." Gerberding was allowed to say only that climate change is "anticipated to have a broad range" of health impacts and then had to focus on how to prepare for problems she wasn't permitted to list.

CANADA - Greater Victoria sunshine SHATTERED A 40-YEAR RECORD HIGH Tuesday with the mercury rising to 20 C. The average high for this late October day is about 12 degrees, but that average and a 1966 record high of 18.3 degrees were smashed with unseasonably warm weather.

SPACE WEATHER-
Comet 17P/Holmes is undergoing a spectacular eruption - The 17th-magnitude comet has brightened by a factor of 500,000 or more during the past 24 hours becoming a naked eye object in the evening sky. This may signify a breakup of the comet's core or a rich vein of ice suddenly exposed to sunlight - no one knows. Look for a yellow 2.5th-magnitude fuzzball in the constellation Perseus after sunset. ("2.5th magnitude" means a little dimmer than the stars of the Big Dipper.) At present the comet looks more like a star than a comet; it does not have a discernable tail, but it might grow one as the outburst continues.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Half of the American people have never read a newspaper.
Half never voted for President. One hopes it is the same half.
Gore Vidal

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/23/07 -
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SULU SEA
5.4 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression KIKO was 351 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

INDIA - A day after the northeast monsoon was officially declared as having set in over the Bay of Bengal, ‘disruptive features’ evolving to the west over the Arabian Sea have sent weathermen scurrying back to their map rooms. The ghost of Super Cyclone Gonu (the system that nearly killed the southwest monsoon during onset in June) is haunting them, with hints of another destructive cyclone stalking the Arabian Sea during the week ahead. Gonu’s successor is seen as treading the same path of calibrated growth in power and vigour, culminating in a likely blow-up over the Oman coast around October 30. In the process, it will have ‘waved down’ an approaching ‘low’ from the Bay. This ‘low’ would now be forced to buy time for a landfall over the Tamil Nadu coast, which is now expected to take place around October 31 — three days later than scheduled, but a day after the ‘pretender’ to Gonu erupts in a spurt of heavy torrents over the Gulf coast. Most of the easterly monsoon winds could get directed into the domineering Arabian Sea system, much in the way Gonu contrived to pack itself with hurricane-strength winds. The onset phase of the southwest monsoon had chalked for want of moisture diverted in this manner. But the impact of the latest storm may not be that big, if only for the fact that it is not brewing in the same sea basin as the northeast monsoon. In contrast, the southwest monsoon had to contend with a storm of Gonu’s bearing in its own backyard.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Communities in northern South Australia are counting the cost of flash flooding late yesterday. Up to 50mm of rain fell in just over half an hour yesterday, as thunder and hail storms swept across South Australia's Yorke Peninsula and north-west regions. Two major roads were cut by the downpour, which caused extensive flooding in several regional centres. Crops have also suffered extensive damage, but farmers say at this point it is too early to tell what can be salvaged from the sodden paddocks.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - More than half a million people have been ordered to evacuate parts of the US state of California being engulfed by massive wildfires. Fierce winds are fanning at least 16 fires that have razed land from Santa Barbara to the Mexican border. The blazes have left two people dead and destroyed more than 1,200 homes and businesses. Around 40 people have been injured, including at least 18 firefighters. Thousands of residents sought shelter at fairgrounds, schools and community centres. "It was like Armageddon - it looked like the end of the world." Up to 300,000 acres (120,000 hectares) of land have been scorched - an area bigger than New York City. Officials have warned the heat and wind levels are not likely to abate for 24 hours. (map) 9 photos
Despairing firefighters have given up battling some of the worst blazes tearing across southern California, as 500,000 people fled the firestorm that is threatening 68,000 homes. Up to 1600 properties have already been destroyed in a disaster that sparked THE LARGEST EVACUATION IN CALIFORNIA'S HISTORY, and the biggest in the US since Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in 2005. There is no sign of any reprieve in the hot, blustery conditions. At least five people have died. The State Government has put economic losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. In a sign of just how desperate the situation is, authorities said they had no hope of getting on top of the blazes due to the shrieking, unpredictable nature of the Santa Ana winds. And there were simply not enough resources to win the battle, which has been raging for three days in temperatures above 30C. Firefighters in the Mexican border city of Tecate tried to control fires that sent up black smoke and covered houses and cars with grey ash. Fires also burned on the outskirts of the Mexican city of Tijuana, 32km from San Diego.

NEW YORK - For the fifth time this month, a RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET at LaGuardia Airport on Tuesday, and it's the seventh record high to be set in the last six weeks. The temperature Tuesday topped out at 80-degrees, breaking the old record set back in 1995. What's more, the average temperature this month has been 9 degrees above normal. With just a week to go until November, New York City is ON PACE TO HAVE ITS WARMEST OCTOBER EVER. In Central Park, the average temperature this month has been 66.7 degrees, a full three degrees warmer than the warmest October on record, which was 60 years ago in 1947. This past week has seen high temperatures remaining steady in the 70s, with a streak of seven straight days with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. It hasn't been just this past week that's seen warmer than normal weather. In fact, 32 of the past 34 days have also experienced above average temperatures.

U.S. - “In the interior Northeast, back to the Ohio Valley, it is likely to be the warmest October on record." Most records go back to the late 19th century. The main cause of the balmy weather this month was the UNUSUALLY northern position of the northern jet stream — the river of high-speed air that circles the globe and separates warm and cold air masses. Because the jet stream is farther north than usual, the Northeast is sitting under warmer air. (Farther west, the jet stream zigs south, the World Series-bound Colorado Rockies’ baseball practice was held indoors in Denver on Sunday because of four inches of snow.)

UNITED KINGDOM - Climate change makes south too dry for lizards - What has happened to the common lizard? Alarm bells are sounding in herpetological circles because it seems to be no longer living up to its name in some parts of Britain. While habitat loss from development and intensive agriculture are likely to have had an impact, some experts suspect climate change could be the major cause, with the species possibly no longer feeling at home in increasingly warm and dry southern regions. Lately, there have been reports of it becoming less numerous in - or even disappearing altogether from - areas where formerly there was an abundance. "My own experience over the past 30 years bears out such reports. I can think of places which used to be alive with baby lizards during August and September but that no longer seems to be the case. This would be understandable if the sites had undergone major change but I am aware of such situations in locations where the habitat looks ideal." Circumstances like that have roused suspicion that climate change may have influenced the puzzling declines and disappearances noted in southern Britain. "Common lizards seem to have declined or disappeared at most of the sites where I knew them 20 or more years ago, and several other people seem to have had similar experiences."

Global warming could cut a swathe through the planet's species over the coming centuries, warns a study which shows a link between rising temperatures and mass extinctions reaching back half a billion years. Each of five major eras of declining biodiversity - including one in which 95% of the Earth's species disappeared - correspond to cycles of severe warming over the 520-million-year period for which there are fossil records. If emissions of greenhouse gas rise unchecked, the predicted increase in global temperature over the next several hundred years could fall within a similar range as these peaks.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Speak when you are angry - and you will make the best speech you'll ever regret.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/22/07 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.7 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression KIKO was 263 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Wildfires raging across California have scorched nearly 1000sq km, making the blaze ONE OF THE LARGEST IN THE STATE'S HISTORY. At least 13 separate fires are alight throughout California, covering huge swathes of tinder-dry countryside that has been parched by months of record-low rainfall across the region. The biggest fire is at Witch Creek, north of San Diego, where 58,680ha (145,000 acres) are alight. More than 500 houses, 100 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. The next largest fire is the Castaic blaze, 63km north of Los Angeles where 16,592ha (41,000 acres) were alight. In nearby Agua Dulce, 14,164ha are in flames, with officials expecting the two fires to merge within 48 hours. The deadliest fire is spreading to Mexico on the southern tip of California. The Harris fire has accounted for 8093ha (19,998 acres), with 1500 structures under threat. Meanwhile, an arson fire in Orange County has spread to 6070ha while in exclusive Malibu west of Los Angeles, 1537ha (3798 acres) has gone up in flames. 40 photos
MEXICO - smoke from wildfires in southern California caused classes to be suspended Monday in the northern Mexico cities of Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito, in Baja California. Baja California's Police advised inhabitants of the region bordering the United States to avoid going out of their homes except in an emergency due to the harmful effects of the smoke. Since the weekend, the smoke from many Californian grass and forest fires has filled Mexican skies with harmful heavy smoke. The Police of Tijuana, near San Diego, California, said they remain on alert in that zone due to the fire's proximity to Tecate (Mexico)-Tecatito (U.S.). The fire is not expected to cross into Mexican territory since the winds are blowing in other directions. (photos)

TURKEY - The Marmara region of Turkey where Istanbul is located received 34% less precipitation than average this past winter; and the Aegean Region, which includes the city of Izmir, received 43% less precipitation than average since October of 2006. Precipitation this low was UNPRECEDENTED in these regions in the last three decades. In the summer of 2007, temperatures rose over 46°C in many parts of Turkey as well as the entire Mediterranean region. This heat combined with aridity is estimated to have cost Turkish farmers ~$3.9 billion. Turkey’s wheat crop dropped by about 15%. The Turkish Aegean region alone suffered from 30% lower harvest yields in cotton, corn and tobacco and a 50% drop in fig production. By mid-summer, the drought started to affect major cities. Ankara (~4 million), the capital, suffered serious water rationing this summer (two days on, two days off). Greece had to declare “state of emergency” at least twice this summer: once for forest fires killing over 60 people, burning half a million acres of land, and costing $1.6 billion; and once for drought on the Cyclades Islands due to water shortages. Morocco experienced 50% less rainfall than average this year which will likely result in half of last year’s grain harvest. And because feed prices went up as a result of this drought, Moroccan livestock was also seriously affected. "Much of the Mediterranean area, North Africa and the Middle East rapidly are becoming drier. If the trend continues as expected, the consequences may be severe in only a couple of decades. These changes could pose significant water resource challenges to large segments of the population."

Monday, October 22, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Ninety-eight percent of the adults in this country are decent, hard-working, honest Americans.
It's the other lousy two percent that get all the publicity. But then - we elected them.
Lily Tomlin

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/21/07 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Twenty-one major cities around the world are at risk of having areas swamped by rising sea levels from global warming, a think-tank has warned. New York, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Bangkok, Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, Cairo, Mumbai and Karachi were among the "highly vulnerable" cities at risk. "Although natural disasters are often presented as rare and unexpected tragedies, the reality is they now occur more frequently, affect more people and cause bigger economic damage than ever before". The world is already "seeing hints" of the way climate change will affect cities by amplifying natural hazards including rising sea levels. In the last century the oceans rose by between 9cm and 20cm and scientists predict further increases of up to 88cm by 2100. Cities will need to plan ahead to avoid disaster.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - The risk of eruption at an Indonesian volcano on Java island has not passed and remains at high alert status, scientists said Saturday. "Tremors had calmed down from Mount Kelut since yesterday (Friday) but other indicators still show increasing magmatic pressure from the volcano's belly." Sensors sending real-time information from the mount's peak showed increased temperatures at the crater. Tremors rocked Mount Kelut for nearly an hour on Friday afternoon - usually a precursor of an eruption. Geologists have said the eruption would be comprised of "heat clouds" consisting of searing gases and volcanic debris rushing down the slopes, similar to the most recent eruption in 1990 that left 34 dead. Some 116,000 villagers have been evacuated from the fertile land around Kelut's slopes, but many have defied local officials' orders to stay away and returned home to tend their farms and to protect against possible looting. About to 130,000 people live in the 10-kilometre radius danger zone and a further 150,000 people live up to 30 kilometres from the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 531 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm KIKO was 173 nmi WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - This year the beginning of the northeast monsoon is earlier than expected. The northeast monsoon is now the current weather system in the country, and will bring rains to the eastern side of the country until early 2008. The northeast monsoon is usually prevalent during the period from November to March or April. It is also responsible for the cool atmosphere during the last part of the year until the early part of the next year before the beginning of the summer season. The southwest monsoon usually brings rains in the western side of the country, including Metro Manila, from May to September. Earlier this year, the southwest monsoon had not brought rains to the country until August, and there had been an absence of tropical cyclones in the country during the typhoon season, particularly during the month of June and the entry of only one tropical cyclone in July. This led to a dry spell in most parts of Luzon. Tropical cyclones enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains in the western side of the country. They also enhance the northeast monsoon that brings rains in the eastern side of the country. So far this year, only nine tropical cyclones have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Philippines is visited by an average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones each year due to its geographical location within the Pacific "Typhoon Belt."

NIGERIA - No fewer than 60 communities have either been submerged or ravaged by a charging flood in four states of the Niger-Delta, specifically, Delta, Edo, Bayelsa and Ondo states, in the past few weeks, with more than 120,000 persons reportedly dislodged following the overflow of the River Niger and the bordering tributaries. The kind of flooding that was experienced, this year, HAS NEVER BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST FIVE DECADES in the riverside communities of the Niger-Delta and the situation was not helped by the fact that most of the communities do not have foreshore protective walls and there was no piling or concrete measures taken to prevent flood disaster. Worse hit is Delta state where at least 50 communities were affected at Ndokwa-East, Patani, Bomadia and Burutu local government areas. The palaces of two royal fathers in Ndokwa-East were destroyed in addition to other residential buildings, farmlands, economic crops and domestic animals in the endangered communities.

THAILAND - Two more districts in Ayutthaya were declared disaster zones yesterday, bringing the number of severely flooded districts in the province to eight. The worst-hit areas are in Bang Ban district where the flood rose as high as 2.5 metres. 10,187 houses in the provinces were reported to be inundated by last night. The water level in the Chao Phraya river is rising by 10 centimetres a day. It threatens to inundate ancient riverside temples and Siriyalai Palace. Yesterday soldiers helped build a 400-metre wall of sandbags in front of the palace to keep the water back. The weather office said rain would continue to lash southern Thailand until later this week as a low pressure front moved slowly across the area. Heavy rains warnings were issued for nine provinces in the South, including Chumphon where 150 village roads and 15 bridges have already been damaged by the flood. Officials have been also told to stay alert in 267 areas prone to mudslides.

MINNESOTA - Before the flood of the century on August 18-19, the part of the Upper Mississippi National Wildlife and Fish Refuge that lies just beyond Minnesota City was a sanctuary. Now it looks like an asteroid hit it. The woods around Garvin Brook have been erased. A crushed car sits buried in chocolate-colored muck. A semitrailer container still slumps in the brook bed, all but buried. The impact of August's floods on the refuge may not be as jaw-dropping as the demolished foundations and waterlogged homes along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border. But federal officials estimate the raging waters caused nearly half-a-million dollars damage on the refuge - blowing out culverts, ripping new paths for Mississippi tributaries and leaving behind tons of sediment and debris. "That kind of rain event hasn't happened in our recorded history." Now boaters must watch out for new sandbars. Fish could have a tough time surviving the winter. Aquatic plants could starve for sunlight next spring. The refuge - a collection of islands, channels, forests and marshes - stretches about 260 miles from southern Minnesota to northern Illinois. The floodwaters were so powerful they forced the Whitewater River over its banks. Before the flood the Whitewater emptied into the Mississippi just north of Minnieska, but the volume of water was so overwhelming the river carved a new bed and now joins the Mississippi a half-mile farther north, complete with a fresh, sediment-built delta. The story was the same with the Root River near Brownsville, which pumped so much dirt into its Mississippi mouth it, too, created a new delta. Biologists aren't sure what long-term effects the flooding may have, but the refuge's backwaters were "severely affected."

SRI LANKA - A landslide threat is looming in several places due to the developing inter-monsoonal weather conditions in the island. Hilly areas in the Central Province could be affected by landslides. Certain places in Pussellawa, Hanguranketha, Walapane and Kandy subject to landslides earlier have been mapped out as high landslide prone areas. In addition, hilly areas in the Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern Provinces have also been detected as landslide prone and residents are advised to be vigilant.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - At least one person has been killed and thousands evacuated as at least 12 wildfires rage across the US state of California, fanned by fierce winds. The governor declared a state of emergency in seven counties, with 35,000 acres (14,000 hectares) burnt from Santa Barbara to San Diego. In Malibu, a large blaze forced stars to flee. That fire is thought to have been caused by a power cable that ignited after being blown over in heavy wind. All 36,000 residents of Ramona, north-east of San Diego, were ordered to leave their homes as another blaze razed more than 5,000 acres (2,000 hectares). "I can't ever remember [evacuating the town of Ramona]. This fire is crazy." Officials say the ground is tinder dry after a record summer heatwave. During a long heatwave in July, wildfires scorched thousands of acres across California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, South Dakota, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. With forecasters predicting hurricane-force winds to continue until later in the week, thousands more homes could be at risk in California. (Photos)
The fires raging across Southern California are being fueled by gale-force winds that meteorologists say will worsen in the next two days as temperatures rise and humidity levels continue to plummet. Forecasters from the National Weather Service and other meteorological organizations said they COULDN'T EVER RECALL SUCH INTENSE WINDS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, even in the heart of the Santa Ana season. The conditions have been exacerbated by a La Niña weather pattern that meteorologists have warned about for months, saying it will bring a drier-than-normal winter in a region already dealing with the driest year on record. Winds are expected to pick up at least until Tuesday, when forecasters say it's possible that Los Angeles will match the all-time high of 95 degrees for that day. "Not only is it a strong event, it's ONE OF THE STRONGEST EVENTS YOU'LL GET IN ANY SANTA ANA SEASON." "The strongest winds have not occurred yet. They're going to peak [on Monday]." Firefighters in Malibu were beating back flames amid gusts that neared 50 mph. In the Newhall Pass and Port Hueneme, gusts blew up to 78 mph Sunday, qualifying as hurricane-force. In Fremont Canyon in the Santa Ana mountains, southeast of Yorba Linda, gusts reached 86 mph. Gusts hit 108 mph at Whitaker Peak near Castaic Lake and 111 mph at Laguna Peak, near Point Mugu. The powerful Santa Anas are the result of a cool high-pressure system in the Great Basin above Utah and a warmer low-pressure system along coastal Southern California. "The winds are one way one minute, and it seems OK. Then they come right back again, and you think the world is ending." As Santa Ana winds move from high to low elevations, crossing deserts and mountains, they heat up. That is bad news for firefighters, because the winds heat and dry already-parched vegetation. "The relative humidity went from 60% to 70% around dawn to single digits: 5%, 7%, 8%." The Santa Ana season peaks in December and can stretch into the spring. It could become markedly worse as winter approaches, because of La Niña. Experts say this La Niña could turn into one of the strongest the region has had in years. La Niñas do not cause Santa Ana events, but the dry conditions worsen their effects. These winds are notable not just for their power but their longevity. "This Santa Ana has got legs. This could be a 72-hour event. And when the winds get this strong, it's really dangerous." (photo, maps)

CANADA - The mercury rose to 26C at one point on Sunday in Toronto, BEATING THE RECORD of 24.1C set back in 1979 for this day of the year. It's been a warmer than usual fall in general, with a few cool days breaking up what's otherwise been a steady stream of heat and humidity. On October 8, they SET A NEW FALL AND DAY RECORD at 32C. But there is a down side. Weather experts warn the change for the warmer could be evidence of a chilling reality that lies ahead. "We've been breaking records left, right and centre this fall. So if we keep seeing these types of dramatic changes in the weather that's going to cause all sorts of problems for ecosystems and ultimately for human beings." Since the start of 2007, the city has seen 393 millimetres of rain while normal levels would be 663 millimetres.

METEORS-
AUSTRALIA - 10/15 & 10/16 - Tension gripped Western Victoria residents after witnessing bright light in the heavens for two straight nights, believed to be a meteor. Residents of Ballarat, west of Melbourne, said that they saw a bright orange-colored light in the sky about 10 p.m Tuesday. The object reportedly flew around the air for more than one minute. Last Monday, calls from the residents of South Australia and Western Victoria were received by authorities and media offices reporting a bright green colored object shooting like a fireball westward in the sky around 8pm. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed the object seen on Monday night was a meteor.
Some residents of Central Victoria believed they saw the meteor crashing to the ground on Monday the 15th. Callers to ABC Radio say they saw a brightly coloured object moving quickly through the northern skies. "I guess it just looked like a meteor. It was bright green, or flashing green, and really bright and sparkling and kind of blazed across the sky." "Very visible, very bright. A big white, greenish sort of a head and long tail in the middle with orange sparks flying off each side."

Sunday, October 21, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/20/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 PALAU REGION
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
10/19/07 -
None 5.0 and over.

VOLCANOES -
PERU & CHILE - Volcanic structures monitored in the Andes via satellite show unexpected activity. The central part of the Andes situated between southern Peru and Chile bears 50 active or potentially volcanoes, spread along a 1500 km-long arc. These volcanic structures are very remote with abrupt slopes and are often cloaked in snow. Few studies have been made on them as such conditions make field surveying extremely difficult. Research projects on deformations of the earth crust, conducted in this region between 1992 and 2000, led to the detection of a long wavelength signal over the area's topography. This deformation would correspond to crustal inflation affecting the whole Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre complex. Although this volcano is not considered as active, as the last eruption dates back 9000 years, such inflation could express an underlying activity related to the dynamics of a functioning magma chamber. Between March 2003 and June 2005, new data led to measurement of inflation of about a centimetre affecting the crust over the whole Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex. A long wavelength regional-scale signal was found, covering a surface area of about 45 km long by 35 km wide corresponding to the entire volcanic complex. A short wavelength signal not previously identified was also revealed, but unlike the first, it was located at the smaller scale of the Lastarria volcano only. Two distinct hypotheses are envisaged to explain the emission of these two wavelengths. As the inflation measured at regional scale corresponds to a long wavelength signal, it has a fairly deep source, estimated by the geophysicists at between 7 and 15 km down. An inflation located at such a depth is highly likely to be generated by magmatic activity. The source of the short wavelength signal, located at about 1000 m beneath the summit of the Lastarria volcano, is more uncertain, however. Indications nevertheless suggest a link with the circulation of hydrothermal fluids. The hope is to obtain further information on changes of mass or density at depth, as a modification of gravity combined with a displacement of the terrestrial crust could indicate a filling or an emptying of a magma chamber and therefore confirm an underlying volcanic activity. If this turned out to be true, the Lastatria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex would be the only area under the Andes where the formation of large magma reservoirs has been demonstrated.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 505 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm KIKO was 147 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - A wave of severe weather cut a brutal path across the United States overnight Thursday, killing six people. Three dozen tornadoes were reported since Wednesday, starting in Oklahoma and continuing into Florida and throughout the Mississippi Valley Thursday. Tornadoes were reported from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico as UNUSUALLY warm temperatures created instability not normally seen this late in the year. The storms that spun tornadoes and dropped pounding hail in the central United States, barreled toward the east coast Friday, bringing hope for relief to parched southern states suffering the worst drought in a century. Tornadoes and thunderstorms had been thought of as being too localized, as weather events, to tie to larger climatic shifts. But a NASA study this August suggested that a warmer climate would produce more updrafts and keep more heat energy in the atmosphere — two pre-conditions to strong storms like thunderstorms and tornadoes. The weather is UNUSUALLY severe for late October. This type of "UNUSUAL” weather event could become more and more commonplace if the atmosphere continues to warm up.

INDIA - Twelve people died and eleven sustained severe injuries in southern India when an apartment building collapsed after heavy rain.

CUBA - As a result of the heavy rains which fell on Thursday night, focused in the northern area of the city of Camagüey, the rivers crossing the city overflowed, affecting the low grounds of the neighbours La Norma, José Martí, El Jardín, Saratoga and La Zambrana. Some 130 millimetres of rain fell in less than an hour and runoffs caused people living near the banks of the rivers to go into a state of alert. Floods were also reported in Albaisa and Lenin de la Paz, in northern Camaguey, because of the saturation of the soils and the inability of runoffs in the same proportion. The Defence Council in the province and the municipality of Camaguey adopted measures for the possible evacuation of the people living in vulnerable zones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - A snow cyclone in Primorye, in Russia's Far East, has caused power outages in several areas and interrupted water supplies in Vladivostok. The snow cyclone swept through the region during the night Friday. The cyclone has left about 100 populated areas of almost 200,000 people without electricity. Repair teams continue to work day and night there, but it is difficult for them to reach some areas because of the heavy snowfall. While some electro-transmission lines are repaired, new line breaks occur. Specialists plan to resume electricity supply to most of the affected areas in 12 hours. The situation is also complicated on roads. The snowfall disrupted traffic on the Khorol-Yaroslavka-Sibirtsevo section where about 100 vehicles were trapped in snow and on the federal Khabarovsk-Vladivostok road where several hundred vehicles were blocked in a congestion. The cyclone is moving across the central and northern regions of the Primorsky Territory. According to meteorologists, it will move to the northeast and to the Sea of Okhotsk and then come to Sakhalin.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

MARYLAND - Reagan National Airport received its first measurable rain Friday since Sept. 14 - a 34-day stretch without rain. That BROKE THE OLD RECORD of 33 days, which ended on Sept. 8, 1995. That brought the total for the month here to not quite nine-tenths of an inch. Dulles Airport tied the record of 82 degrees for the date, set in 1963. This drought remains in place and it's expected to persist at least through January. With 11 days to go, this October ranks as the 9th driest on record for Baltimore.

TEXAS - The grass is high and drying down, the winds are blowing, and UNUSUAL lightning storms are taking place – conditions are right and all it will take is a spark to set off a repeat of the 2006 wildfire season. "It’s setting up to be that kind of year again. We’ve had so much rain, a lot of moisture, and have grown a lot of grass." Due to drought conditions, some areas don’t have that many cows grazing, which has left a lot of dry grass or fuel standing in pastures. "If it turns off dry or with an early frost, it is setting us up to have another fire season like we had in 2006 and 2007." Already the Panhandle and South Plains area have seen a number of fires touched off by lightning this fall, which is a little UNUSUAL. A fire on Oct. 18 burned more than 20,000 acres of grassland in Deaf Smith County. This combination of conditions has led to increased fire weather concerns across Oklahoma and portions of western North Texas, as well as eastern New Mexico and across the Texas Panhandle. Wildfires are not just a problem for rural homeowners and ranchers; during the last two years, 85 percent of the wildfires in Texas have occurred within two miles of a community.

PARAGUAY - The regular drought in the region of Chaco and, since April, in the eastern part of the country (Centre and North East) has exacerbated the forest fires that broke out in August and went totally out of control on September 7. On a million hectares of land, forests and crops have been ruined, houses destroyed, inhabitants evacuated and cattle and wildlife decimated. It is estimated that nearly 200,000 people have been directly affected by this disaster.

UNITED KINGDOM - Climate change drives endangered seabird into UK waters - northeast Atlantic sea surface temperatures rose by 0.6 degrees Celsius in the mid-1990s, triggering a northwards shift in the Balearic shearwater's prey fish species and with it the birds that feed on them. "Just 20 years ago Balearic shearwaters were scarce visitors to South West waters, but they are now regularly recorded from headlands throughout the UK. Since 2003 we have even started seeing birds staying throughout the winter off Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, which is a completely new phenomenon linked to elevated winter sea temperatures." Changes in fish distribution and abundance mean that many Balearic shearwaters are being forced to migrate 20% further - over 400 miles - in search of food than they did a few years ago. Experts say the effects on survival of individual birds are hard to assess, but could well be contributing to the species highly endangered status.

The amount of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the world's oceans has reduced. Results of a 10-year study in the North Atlantic show CO2 uptake halved between the mid-90s and 2000 to 2005. Scientists believe global warming might get worse if the oceans soak up less of the greenhouse gas. Researchers said the findings were surprising and worrying. "It is a tremendous surprise and very worrying because there were grounds for believing that in time the ocean might become 'saturated' with our emissions - unable to soak up any more." That would "leave all our emissions to warm the atmosphere". Of all the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, only half of it stays there; the rest goes into carbon sinks. There are two major natural carbon sinks: the oceans and the land "biosphere". They are equivalent in size, each absorbing a quarter of all CO2 emissions.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide from shipping are twice the level of aviation. Emissions have risen sharply in the past six years. Some 90,000 ships from tankers to small freighters ply the world's oceans. A recent estimate suggests that the world's shipping uses between 350 and 410 million tonnes of fuel each year, which equates to up to 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. Growth in global trade coupled with ships burning more fuel to deliver freight faster has contributed significantly to the increase. There are few accurate measures and even fewer restrictions on the amounts of carbon dioxide that ships can emit at present, but governments in many parts of the world are considering a clampdown as part of their efforts to tackle global warming.

Friday, October 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Americans will put up with anything provided it doesn't block traffic.
Dan Rather

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/18/07 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

INDONESIA - Continuing dramatic movement - Researchers say ongoing uplift following the 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, which triggered massive tsunamis the day after Christmas, is caused by continuing slip on the quake fault. Scientists have observed dramatic post-earthquake movement following several large temblors, including the 2004 quake, and the latter boasts the largest movement recorded since GPS technology became available. GPS sites in the Andamans have recorded uplift ranging from six inches to more than a foot since the earthquake and even larger horizontal movements toward the southwest. A hot topic of debate is what causes the movement. “Our research indicates that the Andaman post-earthquake movements resulted mostly from continuing silent slip on the fault, below the depth that slipped during the 2004 earthquake.” The findings have implications for the earthquake cycle on faults, including how stress accumulates in the time between quakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KAJIKI was 517 nmi NNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm KIKO was 114 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical storm Kiko heads toward Mexico's Pacific coast; may become hurricane. Mexico issued a tropical storm warning along its Pacific coast Thursday as Tropical Storm Kiko marched toward land. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometres an hour and was located 140 kilometres southwest of the resort of Zihuatanejo. It was moving north at almost 15 km/h, and was expected to veer sharply toward the northwest early today and skim Mexico's southwest Pacific coast. Forecasters said it would likely strengthen, although they didn't expect it to become a hurricane before scraping land, probably near the port of Manzanillo on Sunday. The tropical storm warning was issued from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression late Tuesday before regaining tropical storm status Wednesday. The storm could kick up strong waves, winds and rains on land. The storm was expected to strengthen to a hurricane Saturday, but forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said its eye was expected to stay off shore. Forecasters warned it could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain on land.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
RUSSIA - a storm warning was announced in the Primorye territory on Thursday over the approach of a powerful cyclone. The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry reported that on October 19-20 the region will be affected by heavy rains and the wind force will reach 23-25 metres per second. The heaviest rains are expected in the west of the territory on the night to Friday and during the day heavy rains are also possible. After passing of the cold front on Saturday, northern winds will cause air temperatures to fall and it will snow. The bad weather conditions may cause disruptions in the work of sea and air transport, work of the housing and public utilities sector, damage of communication and power transmission lines and an increased number of road accidents.

VIETNAM - Flood waters threatened the central Vietnam World Heritage town of Hoi An on Thursday, drowning at least 10 people and forcing thousands from their homes. There were also threats of flash floods and landslides in three key coffee growing provinces in the Central Highlands, where rivers were rising following heavy rains earlier this week. Heavy rain was falling in Hue, 660 km (410 miles) southeast of Hanoi, swelling floods that have isolated many areas along the north-south Highway One and forcing people to move around by boat. At least 30,000 people had been moved to higher ground in the provinces of Thua Thien-Hue and Quang Tri, where two people drowned as their boat capsized on Wednesday. The flood-stricken region is not a significant rice producer, but floods have flushed away farmers' food reserves.

BELIZE - Rains over the past week have resulted in rivers being flooded especially in the Cayo District. The result has been UNUSUAL flooding occurring in the Belize River because of the influx of water coming down the Macal and the Mopan River. A lot of rains occurred over the Peten area over the northern part of Guatemala and this has also resulted in runoffs to that Mopan River and has been adding to the flooding situation on the Belize River. The Iguana Creek wooden bridge that joins Blackman Eddie and the Mennonite community across the river is still under some three feet of water and it’s impassable. It has been reported that this bridge has been impassable for the past 72 hours which is A RECORD, since this has not been noted to have occurred over the last five years. So the waters that have been coming down across the Belize river has been UNPRECEDENTED in this area.

NEW ZEALAND - Geologists have found that the Young River landslide in Mt Aspiring National Park is the BIGGEST LANDSLIDE IN NEW ZEALAND SINCE 1991 when the top fell off Mount Cook in 1991. The volume of the landslide has been measured at 13 million cubic meters. The Young River landslide occurred on August 29 and was discovered by a helicopter pilot three weeks later. Seismic waves generated by the landslide were the equivalent of a magnitude 2.9 earthquake, and were recorded by seismic instruments in the central South Island. The landslide impounded a lake measuring about 2km long and 500m wide. It is about 60m deep and contains about 26 million cubic metres of water. The rising lake overtopped the debris dam on October 5 and water is draining away through a natural channel. Large rock avalanches and landslides ranked with volcanic eruptions and earthquakes as major earth forces that have been shaping New Zealand’s landscape for millions of years. “While big landslides are not weekly events, they are a natural landforming process that occur worldwide."

THAILAND - Nakhon Ratchasima is now suffering from the WORST FLOOD IN 13 YEARS as more than 200000 people have lost the use of tap water after flood waters rose over 1.5 metres and damaged an electricity transformer at a water-treatment station on Tuesday night. Many houses in the province are now submerged.

UNITED KINGDOM - A Welsh village has been devastated by a 'tsunami' wave of water even though it is 20 miles from the sea. Ten people were rescued and three homes evacuated when a canal burst its banks - sending a 4ft wave surging through the country village. Mystery surrounds the reasons why the 200-year-old Brecon and Monmouthshire canal burst its banks - sending the torrent down a hillside into the village. Families in Gilwern, near Abergavenny, South Wales, have been clearing up after thousands of gallons of canal water carried tons of mud and debris into their homes. "It is terrible what has happened here, and there was no warning it was about to happen. A huge crater has been left next to one house and the canal has very little water left in it. It really is shocking, and the residents and businesses here will be badly affected." "It could be an issue elsewhere. Canals are so old they're not constructed how they would have to be constructed now. How many banks of canals are leaking that we don't know about?" (dramatic photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

FLORIDA - Fort Myers has had two record-tying temperatures in October: a 92-degree high Tuesday and on Oct. 5. The last time it reached 92 degrees on Oct. 16 was in 1989. Record-keepers have to go all the way back to 1936 to find an Oct. 5 with a 92-degree high. Fort Myers' average October high so far has been 91, well above the normal average of 86. The average low, 74, also has been much higher than the normal 69 degrees. The area has also been unseasonably dry. Normally this time of year, a high-pressure system remains in the central and eastern Atlantic, steering hurricanes their way. A western Atlantic system is acting like a hurricane blocker. The high-pressure system continues to hover along the U.S. eastern seaboard. It's the same system that has been keeping Southwest Florida dry for the past month.

South African Iceberg - Maritime officials in South Africa broadcast a navigational warning to ships passing off the country's southern coast after a fishing vessel reported seeing a large iceberg 35 nautical miles from the Eastern Cape coast near Port Elizabeth. The crew estimated the chunk of ice was about 25 metres in length and 20 metres in height. Reports of icebergs near the southern tip of South Africa are EXCEEDINGLY RARE given that Antarctica is 3,700 km to the south. There were a few sightings in the 1850s near Cape Town, and a piece of ice about 1 metre above the surface was seen in 2002.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A new report warns that the H5N1 strain of bird flu has recently mutated to a form that is more easily able to infect humans, but researchers say the virus still does not have the ability to cause a global pandemic. "We have identified a specific change that could make bird flu grow in the upper respiratory tract of humans." Recent samples of the avian influenza virus taken from birds in Africa and Europe all contained the mutation. The H5N1 strain, which has killed or caused the slaughter of millions of birds, has infected 329 people in 12 countries since 2003, killing 201 of them. It has only rarely been passed from human to human, but the wrong combination of mutations could give it the ability to spread into a global epidemic.

Thursday, October 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain.
Lily Tomlin

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/17/07 -
5.1 TAIWAN
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.5 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE

CALIFORNIA - October 17th was the anniversary of the 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake that struck the Bay Area 18 years ago. The quake dislodged a segment of the Bay Bridge, collapsed the Cypress Freeway in Oakland, triggered a fire in San Francisco's Marina District and destroyed much of downtown Santa Cruz. There was an even bigger quake 139 years ago in 1868 on the Hayward fault which remains a ticking time bomb today. It was the 12th deadliest temblor in U.S. history. "We don't know where the earthquake started. We don't know what the epicenter of the earthquake is." "It's the most heavily urbanized fault in the U.S. and it's just waiting to go off." Downtown Hayward suffered most of the damage from the old earthquake. The evidence is still here. Cracks line some of the parking lots. "Whoever parks here during the day has no idea what they're parking over." The tip of a crack extends down six miles below the surface and there is a curb that has been offset. One side of the curb is moving one way, the other side is moving the other way. A building which sits atop the fault line has bolts which are meant to strengthen it, but if you look closely you'll see the constant movement of the earth has created a bubble in the middle of the structure. "The side of the building closest to Mission Boulevard is moving to the north. This side closest to us is moving to the south." Research indicates the last five big earthquakes on the Hayward fault occurred at an average of once every 140 years. October of next year will be the 140th anniversary of the last one in 1868. It has been estimated that only 10% of the Bay Area's population is ready for the "big one." If that "big one" hits on the Hayward fault, it may leave 100,000 people homeless, 58 buildings destroyed and more than 200 buildings heavily damaged. Total losses may number $28 billion dollars, with several thousand deaths.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm KIKO was 356 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kiko reformed before dawn Wednesday off Mexico's Pacific coast. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression late Tuesday before regaining tropical storm status Wednesday. The storm was stalled far out to sea and was expected to strengthen slightly and move north in the coming days. It had sustained winds of 40 mph and wasn't expected to threaten land or become a hurricane. [SITE NOTE - New forecasts show some threat to Mexico in a couple of days due to eastward movement of the storm. Many models are predicting Kiko will reach hurricane strength even though the system is rather disheveled.]

WASHINGTON - The National Weather Service has issued a preliminary wind warning, sparked by concerns over the remains of a tropical storm that may be sliding into Western Washington sometime today. Though the exact storm track cannot yet be predicted, NWS officials have issued a special weather statement warning of high wind potential Thursday, the result of Tropical Storm Lingling burning itself out along the western coast. If the storm blows eastward, it could hit Western Washington and Vancouver Island today. But if the storm continues north, high winds will likely be confined to the coast and possibly the far north interior of the state. Or, it could be a “non-event,” according to the forecast.

CALIFORNIA - Four people are now confirmed dead in the traffic pileups north of Los Angeles that took place amid blinding sandstorms Tuesday. Wind advisories were extended in the area Wednesday. The winds were gusting to 55 miles an hour in the arid high desert. Forecasters say more strong winds are likely in the area into Friday. The largest of the crashes scattered vehicles across state Highway 14 just west of Edwards Air Force Base on the northern edge of Los Angeles County. Two people died in that pileup, and 25 others were taken to hospitals. In the town of Mojave , two others were killed and eight were hurt in separate accidents about 1,000 yards apart along a state highway. Like the rest of California, the area has been bone-dry this year, getting less than two inches of rain.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH DAKOTA - Yankton officially received 2.15 inches of rain for Oct. 16, SHATTERING THE OLD PRECIPITATION RECORD of 1.74 inches set in 1968.

MINNESOTA - Wednesday the Twin Cities BROKE A CENTURY-OLD RECORD FOR THE WETTEST AUGUST, SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER. After a near summer-long drought, now Mother Nature won't turn off the spigot. If history repeats itself, the record rain this fall might be a harbinger of lighter-than-normal snowfall this winter. After the wet fall of 1900, the winter of 1900-01 produced only 41.5 inches of snow, which is below the historic average of nearly 55 inches annually.

COSTA RICA - The Costa Rican government declared a national state of emergency Wednesday after heavy damage and casualties were caused by heavy rainfall over the last week. The floods have already claimed 18 lives. Intense rainfall added to the rain of recent months, causing an estimated 80 million dollars in damage. Roads across the country have been badly damaged, particularly in the Costa Rican south and in the northern province of Guanacaste. "The damage to the traffic infrastructure is immense." Neighbouring countries Nicaragua and Panama and several Caribbean islands have also been affected by flooding.

THAILAND - Three heavily-flooded districts of Ayutthaya have been declared disaster areas as the province is opening up fields to absorb water and lessen the knock-on effects of the floods expected to be felt in Bangkok from Sunday to Monday. Bang Ban, Sena and Phak Hai districts, which are part of the province's major rice-growing areas, are bearing the severest brunt of the inundation. More areas in the province could be declared disaster zones if the floods continue to cause widespread destruction. Only last year, much of Ayutthaya remained under water for weeks. Water was pushed into fields to mitigate flood problems for Bangkok, and the practice is being repeated with the onset of the flood season. Ayutthaya and neighbouring provinces were expecting the worst as Chao Phraya dam in Chai Nat was almost full and had already started releasing water. River water was rising fast and some 50 ancient riverside temples in Ayutthaya were racing against time to put up sand-bag flood walls. However, at some temples the surging floods were impossible to beat.

SPAIN - A Danish woman motorist was swept to her death on Wednesday by a flash flood on the Spanish island of Majorca. The 30-year-old woman abandoned her car and tried to escape the rising floodwaters after torrential rain near the town of Puigpunyent in the centre of the Balearic island. Two passengers in the vehicle, a man and a baby, were rescued.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

A new wind circulation pattern is blowing more warm air towards the North Pole than in the 20th Century. The Arctic is being hit by melting ice, hotter air and dying wildlife. Shrubs are now growing in tundra areas while caribou herds are dwindling in Canada and parts of Alaska. In 2007, winter and spring temperatures were "all above average throughout the whole Arctic and all at the same time" unlike in previous years. "This is an UNUSUAL feature and it looks like the beginning of a signal from global warming." The fate of the Arctic affects the entire planet.

U.S. - Temperatures in September 2007 were hot enough to BREAK 1,000 DAILY HIGH RECORDS across the United States, the eighth warmest September on record. The heat extended the worsening drought to almost half of the contiguous United States - with the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley experiencing the driest conditions. Thirty-eight of the 48 contiguous states were warmer than average, and no state was cooler than average for the month. The global surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record for September, and the extent of Arctic Sea ice reached its lowest amount in September since satellite measurements began in 1979, shattering the previous record low set in 2005.

BEE DIE-OFF-
Whatever it was that was causing bees to die has seemingly come and gone. Scientists have dubbed the fatal phenomenon 'colony collapse disorder', or CCD, and it can decimate a worker bee population in a matter of weeks for unlucky beekeepers. Honeybees are responsible for the pollination of 90 percent of flowering crops, including strawberries and blueberries, so the impact of a honey bee decline would be felt far and wide. "One of the main reasons bees die is that they are infected with tracheal mites who infest the breathing tubes of the bees and cause the bees to die by piercing the trachea." "At this time, there is no apparent decrease in pollination in fruit crops such as apples, plums or tree fruits." Minnesota was one of the top five honey-producing states in 2005, with production value at $7.4 million. "While all of Minnesota wasn't affected, we were certainly concerned." Honey production last year in Minnesota from producers with five or more colonies was up 13 percent from the year before. However, nationwide honey production declined from 2005 by 11 percent to 155 million pounds. "We just don't have as many beekeepers anymore because of the bee health problems and just because it's harder to make a profit from it." Those who have reported the heaviest losses associated with CCD are large commercial migratory beekeepers, some of whom have lost 50 percent to 90 percent of their colonies. Surviving colonies are often so weak that they cannot pollinate or produce honey. "There's definitely a big difference in the concern level of a hobby beekeeper and a commercial beekeeper."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

BANANAS - AUSTRALIA - banana plantations in the Northern Territory are being destroyed by an exotic fungus threatening to wipe out the industry. The soil-based Panama disease - which dries out and kills Cavenish banana trees - is forcing the territory's largest producer to close its entire operation. The Borsato Company, which supplies two-thirds of the NT market, is warning that bananas will have to be imported from north Queensland next year because of a shortage of local fruit. "The disease just devastated the plantation and you can't get rid of it and you can't plant back into the soil.'' Panama was first detected at Berry Springs in the territory ten years ago, although strains of it have been identified in Australia over the past three decades. "This is a worldwide problem. We have been fighting this for ten years and we have watched all the other major growers in the territory close ... just about everyone has it." The Government is hoping the industry can still be saved by developing resistant strains of crops. Panama causes banana trees to effectively kill themselves. "The plant shuts itself down trying to keep the fungus at bay. It starves itself trying to keep Panama out and stop it from spreading."

Wednesday, October 17, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals.
We know now that it is bad economics."
FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt)

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/16/07 -
6.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.2 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE
5.2 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 BRISTOL BAY
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

NEW ZEALAND - The Earthquake Commission has received claims of $250,000 following the earthquakes in Fiordland this week and expects the total to rise. So far, 44 claims have been received, mostly for damaged walls and chimneys, broken windows and items that fell off shelves. Aftershocks continue to be felt in Fiordland today after a magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck at 1.29am yesterday. The quake was centred 60 kilometres west of Milford Sound at a depth of 24km. It was the biggest earthquake in New Zealand since a magnitude 7.2 tremor on August 22, 2003.

CALIFORNIA - An early Tuesday morning 4.2 quake was the latest in series of tremors to hit California. Residents of San Bernardino County were rocked early Tuesday morning by a magnitude 4.2 earthquake. Tremors were felt thought out the region. The quake occurred at 1:53 am about three miles north of Wrightwood, a remote community about 80 miles northwest of Los Angeles. Despite its only 4.2 measurement, people as far north as Glendale, a suburb of Los Angeles, felt the quake, while callers from Pasadena also reported shaking. On Monday afternoon a magnitude-3.1 earthquake, preceded by two smaller tremors, rattled the Hemet area.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA has raised the alert level for Mt Kelud volcano to the highest level, as residents started fleeing amid signs an eruption could be imminent. The number of volcanic earthquakes at Mt Kelud, 90km southwest of Indonesia's second-largest city Surabaya, had soared to more than 300 in a six-hour period from late morning. The alert level was raised to maximum “based on the seismic activity, deformation, visual observation and the temperature of the crater lake going up”. The crater lake has started to change colour indicating increasing sulphur levels. “On the east and the north of the lake, it has started to turn white with sulphur.” An estimated 350,000 people live within 10km of the volcano on Java island, growing coffee, sugar cane, pineapples and papayas on the rich volcanic soil or feeding their cattle on the volcano's slopes. “People are panicking as they are heading towards the evacuation areas. They are facing water and sanitation problems as the evacuation sites have not been properly equipped.”
On Oct. 7, locals were strengthening the levees that are supposed to protect them from boiling water that flows from the lake in the volcano's crater during eruptions. "Each river in the area has at least seven dams to hamper the flow of lahar (water and rocks). We are very well prepared for this. The dams will help people here feel more secure." "The volcano's explosive activity typically starts with a steam explosion - when surfacing magma meets ground water. Such eruptions produce hot mud flows, pyroclastic surges and flows."

RUSSIA - Bezymyannyi volcano, located in the Ust-Kamchatka District, erupted on October 15. Seismologists registered a sudden increase in activity of the volcano at 3:30 a.m. local time. Scientists think the giant volcano kept erupting for two hours. It threw out columns of ash to the height of 5 to 7 km. The ash shower covered dozens of kilometres around the volcano. The steam-vapour tail stretched 30 km from the crater. Eruptions of Bezymyannyi are distinguished by their explosiveness and shortness. The volcano activates once or twice a year. The last eruption happened in May 2007.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression KIKO was 420 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BANGLADESH - Tornadoes, mudslides and boat and trawler capsizes killed at least nine persons and injured over 100 across the country while 32 others have remained missing as heavy rainfall fell, caused by a well-marked low in the Bay which inundated the Chittagong region. The low pressure developed in the northern Bay of Bengal and started moving towards the shore in the evening. It may turn into a land depression and may cause heavy rainfall in Chittagong, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions until this afternoon. All fishing boats have been advised to stay in shelter until further notice. Movement of vehicles smaller than 65 feet in length on 108 river routes was also suspended until further orders. Torrential rainfall completely paralysed normal life yesterday. Logged water has made movement of city dwellers completely impossible in most areas. Rickshaws and vans became the only modes of transport for the people stuck at different places. The rain also caused immense suffering to day labourers and low-income people. The city kitchen markets faced a serious dearth of supply of essentials. Three people including two children were killed and two others were injured in a landslide caused by the onrush of heavy shower in Kaukhali upazila of Rangamati yesterday morning. Sources said a large chunk of earth fell straight on the thatched house around 8.30am yesterday. In Bandarban, road connection with other districts was snapped due to heavy rainfall and mudslide from hills. In Khagrachhari, over 20,000 people were marooned and took shelter on high land and structures yesterday as the onrush of hill water and heavy rain flooded 25 villages under six upazilas. In Patuakhali, four trawlers with 29 fishermen were capsized in rough sea. A Kuakata-bound trawler rescued 24 fishermen swimming in the sea. Relatives of the missing fishermen gathered in Kuakata and Mohipur areas to see if they returned. At least five people were killed and more than one hundred injured when tornadoes ripped through the southern coastal districts and the south-central parts of the country on Monday night. Over 100 fishermen were reported missing as 18 fishing trawlers capsized in the River Passur during storms caused by land depression. The gale also damaged hundreds of thatched houses and crops and uprooted trees in their thousands and some electrical poles, disrupting road communication and snapping power supply in the districts. A tornado that lashed five remote villages of Shahrasti upazila on Monday injured at least 25 people and damaged around 100 houses.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Drug-resistant bugs growing - A new study warns that potentially lethal drug-resistant staph infections are becoming more common, and not just in hospitals where growth has already been documented. Nearly 19,000 people died in the United States in 2005 after being infected with virulent drug-resistant bacteria that have spread rampantly through hospitals and nursing homes.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"There is no way in which birds differ more from man than the way
they can build and yet leave a landscape as it was before."
Robert Lynd

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/15/07 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
6.8 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.1 FIJI REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PAKISTAN - Twelve people, including three children, drowned Monday while picnicking on a beach during the Eid holiday near Pakistan's main port city on the Arabian Sea. Strong waves struck a group of 15 picnickers who had waded far into the sea at the Gadani beach about 40 kilometers (25 miles) southwest of Karachi. Twelve people drowned while two others were pulled safely from the sea by rescuers.

NIUE - Help us, we're sinking, says Niue. The leader of the tiny Pacific nation of Niue has begged developed nations to urgently act on climate change, saying his country could be uninhabitable within decades. His country and other small Pacific nations are facing catastrophe if sea levels rise. "It is very serious because if they (the biggest polluting nations) don't listen now, and we don't do something now, we are gone. That is for sure, and we are scared. The problem is huge and I think the voices of the Pacific islands have been yelling for the last 15 or 20 years and nobody is listening...I am not a scientist, but I have been told our time is very short ... I think a few decades, it is very short."

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Shiveluch Volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula may be about to stage a large eruption. The Shiveluch volcano located in the north of the peninsula has intensified its activity and threatens with a new heavy eruption. Lately the volcano activity has increased and a heavy eruption is supposed to occur; it is supposed to be as heavy as the eruption in 2005, when the burning hot lava stream, about a kilometer wide and 25 kilometers long, erupted from Shiveluch and rushed down its slopes burning everything on its way. The seismic stations have already registered more than 400 local earthquakes near the volcano. The scientists suppose that some seismic events were accompanied with emissions of gas and ash about four kilometers high. The eruption of the volcano began in December 2006. The massive gas and ash columns rise above its crater from time to time. The volcano is not dangerous for the nearby settlements of the peninsula; however the emissions of ash threaten aircraft and the melting snow sometimes causes avalanching onto the Kamchatka Territory roads.

CANADA - Possibility of volcanic activty near Quesnel excites scientists - Scientists are headed to an area 75 kilometres west of Quesnel to install seismological equipment aimed at determining whether a "swarm" of small earthquakes are evidence of a forthcoming burst of molten lava - potentially the first volcanic activity in the province of British Columbia in two centuries. "The earthquakes are continuing, even today. We should have some answers soon." Last Wednesday existing seismological equipment located at Thunder Mountain began recording earthquake activity. Since then, there have been more than 100 small earthquakes - most of them magnitude 1.0 or less on the Richter scale, but as big as 3.1 - including an average of one per hour over the past 24 hours. The activity is located 20 kilometers west of Nazko Cone, which last erupted 7,200 years ago and is currently being mined for scoria, used for light-weight aggregate, landscaping and ground cover, and in agricultural and horticultural applications as a soil additive. Upward movement could be evidence the lava is working its way to the surface, causing small earthquakes as it muscles its way through the earth's rocks. "We don't know if it's caused by magma at depth or if it's tectonic - just an earthquake in an UNUSUAL area, because we haven't seen earthquakes here before. It may turn out to be a little swarm of earthquakes in an unusual spot, but it may turn out to the be reawakening of a volcano, which is really exciting." Even if lava is on its way, it could take weeks or months to reach the surface. It took Mount St. Helens in Washington about two months to finally blow its top in 1980.

PHILIPPINES - Six new vents on the slopes of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon province were found by volcanologists from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology after an ash explosion early this month. Three vents were found to have been created at the southeast slope and another three at the northwest slope of the volcano. The addition of the six vents brought to nine the total number of active vents around the volcano. Two vents at the north, one at the south-southwest and another at the southwest had gone inactive. The vents could somehow help diffuse the activities of the volcano but it could also be a sign of intensified volcanic activities. The volcano spewed ash twice early morning of October 4, affecting majority of the villages of Bulusan town. Meanwhile, some residents of the village of San Roque, Bulusan expressed alarm after they observed some "bulging" on the ground. A ground deformation survey is currently being done by Phivolcs personnel.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15E was 417 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

PACIFIC - Tropical Depression 15-E formed in the Pacific Ocean Sunday off the coast of Baja California. There is a better than 50% chance that the storm will develop tropical storm-force winds, according to The National Hurricane Center. It would be named Tropical Storm Kiko, the 11th named storm of the season for the eastern Pacific. The Western Pacific has been extremely active, with seven storms that have exceeded Category 4 strength. (map of the strong hurricanes of 2007)

ATLANTIC - A low-pressure system emerged from the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Monday. Weather models show the system will move generally north across the Gulf and make landfall in the oil rich northern Gulf Coast between central Louisiana and western Florida over the next few days. The NHC will name the next tropical storm Noel. In addition, the system could disrupt some of Mexico's oil production in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf. The NHC is also watching a low-pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. Weather models show the system will make landfall in Nicaragua before moving northwest over Central America. The NHC however does not expect the Caribbean system to develop into a tropical cyclone before making landfall. A couple of the models showed the system emerging in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - More than a hundred families were evacuated by the municipal government following flash floods that damaged more than 50 houses in at least five villages in Sorsogon. Lahar and mud flows from the slopes of Bulusan volcano hit the villages of Patag, Monbon, Cogon, Mapaso and Bagsangan following heavy rains Monday, which lasted until Tuesday. Residents in Barangay Monbon said they heard thundering sounds before the flash floods hit the houses past midnight.

NIGERIA - Residents of Sili town in Guyuk local government area of Adamawa State are now living in fear following a major landslide which destroyed their farmlands at the weekend. A previous landslide in the area last occurred in 1964, but it produced less impact than the one of this year. This year's occurrence devastated the community and destroyed farmlands when millions of Naira worth of produce went under the ground as a result of the land slide. Although no life was lost, many were injured during the landslide. "Those of us who witnessed the 1964 landslide are deeply shocked at the impact of the disaster this year. Our forefathers witnessed a similar occurrence in the past but none can be compared to this year's and we fear that the future ones may be more devastating."

NEBRASKA - A NEW MONTHLY RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNT for the Omaha area has been set. Total precipitation at Omaha Eppley through Sunday was 5.9 inches. The old record was 5.86 inches from 1877. A RECORD FOR DAILY RAINFALL was also set at Eppley Airfield Sunday, 1.71 inches.
The National Weather Service reports more than eight inches of rain fell in Cass County, Iowa since Saturday morning.

OKLAHOMA - A NEARLY 100-YEAR-OLD RECORD FOR RAINFALL IN ONE YEAR HAS BEEN BROKEN in Oklahoma City, with about two-and-a-half months left in the year. A line of thunderstorms moved through central Oklahoma before midnight on Sunday and dropped 1.4 inches of rain at Will Rogers World Airport. That brings the rainfall total for 2007 to 53.34 inches to break the record of 52.03 inches set in 1908.

MICHIGAN - Water temperatures on Lakes Erie and St. Clair have exhibited an UNUSUAL pattern this fall. They were in the 60s in the last two weeks of September, climbed back into the 70s when hot weather returned early this month and now are in the high 50s. Smallmouth bass have begun their pre-winter feeding binge, and it is some of the best bass fishing that some fishermen have ever seen.

LIGHTNING POWER - Anyone who's seen 'Back to the Future' knows how awesome a power source lightning is. Now an inventor from Illinois is getting serious about harnessing lightning storms as an alternative energy source. He has developed a system whereby a lightning's tremendous power can be captured and harvested. He created a demo model, including a lightning generator that shoots out bolts three feet in length, each capable of powering a 60-watt light bulb for 20 minutes. Since an average Midwest thunderstorm contains enough energy to power the entire U.S.A. for 20 minutes, if the idea could be expanded and implemented over a large area, we could really be onto something here. Even just one lightning strike could power 30,000 homes for a day.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

TENNESSEE - The last five years, Tennessee wildfires have burned an average of about 17,000 acres a year, but this year, they've already burned more than 41,000 acres.

IDAHO SET A NEW RECORD for acres burned in 2007.

SOUTH EASTERN U.S. - For the FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS, much of the Southeast has reached the most severe category of drought, climatologists said Monday, creating an emergency so serious that some cities are just months away from running out of water. Officials in the central North Carolina town of Siler City estimate that without rain, they are 80 days from draining the Lower Rocky River Reservoir, which supplies water for the town’s 8,200 people. In the Atlanta metropolitan area, which has more than four million people, worst-case analyses show that the city’s main source of water, Lake Lanier, could be drained dry in 90 to 121 days. The hard numbers have shocked the Southeast into action, even as many people wonder why things seem to have gotten so bad so quickly. For the better part of 18 months, cloudless blue skies and high temperatures have shriveled crops and bronzed lawns from North Carolina to Alabama, quietly creating what the state climatologist of Georgia has dubbed “the Rodney Dangerfield of natural disasters,” a reference to that comedian’s repeated lament that he got “no respect.” “People pay attention to hurricanes. They pay attention to tornadoes and earthquakes. But a drought will sneak up on you.” The situation has gotten so bad that by all measures — the percentage of moisture in the soil, the flow rate of rivers, inches of rain — THIS DROUGHT HAS BROKEN EVERY RECORD IN GEORGIA'S HISTORY. Within two weeks, the director of the Georgia Environmental Protection Division, is expected to send the Governor recommendations on tightening water restrictions, which may include mandatory cutbacks on commercial and industrial users. If that happens, experts at the National Drought Mitigation Center said, it would be the first time a major metropolitan area in the United States had been forced to take such drastic action to save its water supply. “The situation is very dire.”

Scientists are predicting there could be a global food crisis in this century if climate change continues unabated. A study released by the Center for Global Development shows that climate change could cause global food production to decline from 5 to 20% by the year 2080, and even higher in some countries. "Something like 30 to 40% in India for example, and something like 20% or more in Africa and Latin America."

Global Humanitarian Forum - "In recent months, global awareness on the risks associated with climate change has shifted drastically. Few would now dare to argue against the view that climate change does and will present an enormous humanitarian challenge. Even if progress was made in reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases, we should not forget that weather patterns have already changed, global temperatures have already risen and, above all, climate change is already taking a heavy human toll around the globe. For far too long, climate change has been seen as a problem of the future, one that only a limited range of ministries and institutions should manage. This must change now. Climate change requires broader engagement. We need to build up knowledge on how the most vulnerable communities can protect and adapt themselves and what types of global support systems are needed. How will millions of people in Africa and Asia be affected by changing monsoon seasons? How will the poor cope with more frequent and intense droughts and floods? How will the weakest survive more agonizing heat waves and violent tropical storms? How can we diffuse the tensions that are likely to erupt as food and water shortages worsen? What are the security implications of the mass migrations predicated by many experts? Should we start identifying safe land for coastal and insular populations? How can the latest advances in agriculture and water harvesting be made available to those most in need? How can the humanitarian community enlist the help of all sectors to face those challenges? And who will pay the bills? These are just few of the many questions that come to mind... Wednesday, Kofi Annan will launch the Global Humanitarian Forum in Geneva. Its mission is to foster dialogue and partnerships that strengthen the international community's ability to address current and future humanitarian challenges. The forum will urge effective action to protect people who are most vulnerable and in need of help. In its first phase of existence, the forum will focus on the adverse humanitarian consequences of climate change. It will seek to provide an impartial and inclusive platform where decision-makers can break through the current barriers to adaptation and work together to search for solutions; where scientists and economists can meet with leaders of communities that are already trying to adapt to a changing climate; and where we can better harness the business community's ability to work for the common good. Its outcomes are expected to contribute to the upcoming negotiations for a future climate-change regime, of which adaptation will form an integral part. The forum will seek to be a catalyst for action and to help increase support to communities most exposed to climate risks. The scale and impact of climate change require unprecedented collaboration. Now is the time to act."

Monday, October 15, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Watch your thoughts; they become words.
Watch your words; they become actions.
Watch your actions; they become habits.
Watch your habits; they become character.
Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/14/07 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

ISRAEL - Scientists predict that a 3.0-magnitude earthquake, which recently hit Jordan rift valley area, may be a precursor to a much larger quake. The Jordan Rift Valley is a 375-kilometer long strike-slip fault zone some 5 kilometers wide in the north and 23 kilometers wide in the south that forms part of the broader Great Rift Valley. This geographic region includes the Jordan River, Hula Valley, Lake Tiberias and the Dead Sea. Followed by the small earthquakes felt in Jordan rift valley area on Saturday, scientists predict a larger earthquake could occur due to the nearby Syrian-African rift, known for being volatile. Past data proves that such a quake is just a matter of time. "We know that the area between the Kinneret and the Dead Sea was subject to several large quakes, in 31BC, 362BC, 749BC (over 7 on the Richter scale) and 1033AD. Another major one is coming soon."

TAIWAN - Hundreds of thousands of earthworms appeared in a Taiwan vineyard, prompting the owner to consult an expert out of fear that a strong earthquake might be coming soon. The worms crawled out of the earth and covered the surface of Wu Ching-chuan's vineyard in Changhwa County, west Taiwan, Sunday morning. Wu, who bought the vineyard 40 years ago, said he has never seen so many earthworms in his vineyard before and estimated there were 200 to 300 kilograms of them. Seeing the large numbers of earthworms Wu feared that a major quake might be coming because worms and snakes are known to come to the surface when disturbed by seismic activity. Wu consulted a farm expert who said the earthworms crawled out because his vineyards were flooded when Typhoon Krosa hit Taiwan on October 5. Although earthworms like humid environment, they cannot stand extreme moisture or when the underground water level rises too high, so they came out of the earth. Wu's worry about an upcoming strong earthquake eased when it was pointed out that another vineyard near Hu's house has not been invaded by earthworms because it was not flooded during the typhoon's passage.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND - A young British woman was the lone survivor of a flash flood that swept her boyfriend and seven other tourists to their deaths in a cave in southern Thailand. She was left clinging to a ledge for hours after the FREAK WAVE washed through Nam Talu cave in Khao Sok national park. Reports said that a group leaving the cave complex had warned the party not to go in. She said she was unaware of any such warnings.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15E was 387 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TURKEY - rain starting on the second day of 'Bayram' paralyzed life in Istanbul and in many other cities. After the days of drought in summer, the rain shower caused floods. Rain was strong, especially in Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Western Black Sea. The rainfall BROKE A RECORD in Istanbul for October. The waves in the Black Sea reached five meters. In Istanbul, three people died and nine people were injured because of the rain.

SOUTH AFRICA - Storms in South Africa are going to become more severe, an analyst at the South African Weather Service has warned. And while residents in Mamelodi, Soweto, were mopping up water and clearing up the damage to their houses this week, the weather man warned that people in low-lying areas could expect more flooding. “This year alone South Africa has seen MANY WEATHER RECORDS TUMBLING. South Africa will have to learn to cope with these extreme weather conditions. They are not going to stop.” Floods are becoming heavier and they will be a major problem in informal settlements. Climate experts have warned that there will be “an increase in severe storms, such as those associated with cut-off low-pressure systems”. “This will lead to more frequent flooding and consequent damage to farmlands, infrastructure and inhabitants of flood-prone areas." The weather service is concerned that the velocity of hailstorms on the Highveld could increase and it has detected much stronger and more damaging winds during the traditional thunderstorms that Gauteng is famous for. Last Saturday a man died in Lenasia when a tree uprooted by powerful winds fell on him. The storms also caused power failures and infrastructural damage in the south and west of Johannesburg. Several uprooted trees blocked the N12 highway. In addition, snowfalls in South Africa are increasing. Johannesburg had its first snowfall since 1981 and the weather man said that for the first time this winter snow had fallen as far north as Giyani in Limpopo. People up north are not used to the plummeting temperatures, exposing them to the dangers of hypothermia. In August the United Nations Weather Agency said that many parts of the world have experienced record extreme weather conditions since the beginning of the year, including unusual floods, heatwaves, storms and cold snaps. And the global land-surface temperatures in January and April reached the highest levels recorded for those months. Africa has had a particularly severe flooding season, affecting 22 countries including Ethiopia, Niger, Uganda and Sudan. Torrential rains uprooted the lives of more than 1.5-million people on the continent.
Recent floods in Africa:
2004 and 2005: In Kenya floods rendered 80,000 people homeless. There were livestock deaths, property was destroyed and thousands of hectares of farmland containing mostly maize were ruined.
2005: In Ethiopia hundreds of people from Somaliland lost their lives. Many survivors lost their homes and other property.
2006: In Mozambique 21 people were killed, 35,000 left homeless and many died because of the increase in diseases such as malaria and cholera.
2007: In Uganda houses and latrines collapsed and crops were damaged, leading to food insecurity. People were washed away, waterborne diseases such as diarrhoea, upper respiratory diseases, gastroenteritis and malaria were rife. Overall 300,000 people were affected. In Sudan the Upper Nile region saw about 365,000 people affected by heavy flooding. In Mozambique Cyclone Favio and associated floods killed 45 people and 170,000 people were displaced.

Sunday, October 14, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
America's one of the finest countries anyone ever stole.
Bobcat Goldthwaite

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/13/07 -
5.7 VANUATU
5.3 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
10/12/07 -
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

CANADA - Seismologists are trying to figure out if a series of earthquakes in Northern B.C. this week are connected to a dormant volcano 150 km southwest of Prince George. The eight quakes have ranged between a magnitude 2.8 and 3.2 and began on Tuesday evening and the latest happened on Thursday evening. Seismologists aren't sure if the small quakes were caused by tectonic shifts or volcanic activity.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Kelud volcano, which was put on the country's second-highest alert level last month, shows several alarming signs indicating it may erupt, the country's top volcano expert said. "I'm scared about Kelud. Kelud is now on the point of no return." The number of volcanic earthquakes at Mount Kelud, 90 km (55 miles) southwest of Indonesia's second-largest city Surabaya, has risen to as high as 23 in one day, compared with a maximum of 15 a day just before its last eruption in 1990. The volcano's "deformation" or expansion has increased, and gas and chemical levels have risen, while the temperature of the lake in the volcano's crater is climbing more rapidly, hitting 37.4 degrees Celsius on Saturday, compared with 32 degrees in August. Experts in Bandung, a city in West Java which is circled by volcano peaks, have been monitoring Mount Kelud for weeks, after three other volcanoes erupted earlier this year in Indonesia.

PHILIPPINES - Successive mild quakes have hit Del Gallego town, Camarines Sur in recent days, triggering fears of a possible eruption of the Mt. Labo volcano. Residents experience up to three intensity III earthquakes in a day. The initial assessment of the local Phivolcs office that the quakes were not volcanic and were caused by a fault did little to assuage residents' fears.

RWANDA - Swiss scientists are helping the government of Rwanda to extract potentially lethal methane from a dangerous lake for much needed electricity production. The threat in the Lake Kivu area comes from billions of cubic metres of gas dissolved deep underwater that could kill large numbers of people if it were to escape. At present, the gas remains dissolved deep underwater as a result of high pressure and the extremely stable water layers of the lake, which limits exchanges between the bottom and surface zones. But if gas concentrations continue to increase or if a severe disruption happened - following a volcanic eruption or a major earthquake - large quantities of gas bubbles could rise to the surface, possibly triggering a massive gas eruption. The release of a mixture of carbon dioxide and methane gas could have catastrophic consequences on the densely populated shores of the lake where about two million people live. Hundreds of thousands could be asphyxiated. At present the lake is in principle "very stable" and it would need a huge earthquake or magma input directly in the bottom of the lake to trigger a gas eruption. However, extracting the methane is not without risks. "One thing that is important is to maintain the stable stratification of the lake because otherwise the gases could rise near the surface and this would increase the risk of catastrophic eruption."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression LINGLING was 1557 nmi E of Tokyo, Japan.

JAPAN - Typhoons that hit the country from the middle of September through the start of October are more likely to bring torrential rainfall to northeastern parts of Japan as they merge with autumnal rain fronts and their structures change, the Meteorological Research Institute said. According to the institute, torrential rainfall can still occur even if a bank of rain clouds does not approach land because the rain clouds caused by autumn typhoons usually hover over wider areas than summer typhoons. An autumn front is formed when a mass of cold air moves southward and advances toward a mass of warmer air nearer land. Typhoons that make landfall at this time of year merge with autumnal fronts, creating rain clouds that move along fronts. The difference in temperature on either side of the paths of typhoons indicated whether the round clouds that surround the center of a typhoon maintained the usual typhoon cloud patterns, and also whether the typhoons merged with an autumnal rain front to become extratropical cyclones. Of the 10 typhoons that hit the country from June to early September in 2004 to 2006, nine typhoons had the structure of a typhoon with round clouds, according to the analysis. Typhoons with round clouds bring moist air from the south, causing heavy rain in areas along the Pacific coast. Meanwhile, the four typhoons that made landfall during this period had the characteristics of extratropical cyclones. Three of these hit Hokkaido and the Tohoku region in August or later.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
COSTA RICA & PANAMA - Flooding from days of heavy rain left 14 people dead in a mudslide in Costa Rica and sowed chaos in neighbouring Panama, displacing scores of people. The mudslide struck poor homes in Atenas, west of the Costa Rican capital on Thursday in a torrential downpour. Rescuers later found 14 bodies as they picked through the mud, timber and rubble. The mudslide engulfed a complex housing the families of poor farm workers. It was the WORST WEATHER DISASTER FOR YEARS in the Central American country. Parrita on the western Pacific coast was also flooded when rain-swollen rivers burst their banks. To the south-east in central Panama, heavy rain since Friday left two people missing and more than 100 displaced in remote areas. Even worse flooding struck across the Caribbean Sea on the island of Haiti.
HAITI - At least 45 people have died in the poverty-stricken island of Haiti as homes were swept away in floods triggered by heavy rain. More than 6000 people have had to leave their flooded homes in Cabaret, where neighbourhoods have been completely submerged. Thousands of families are displaced and hundreds of homes destroyed or damaged across the country. Roads are swamped and plantations wiped out. Farming has been particularly affected and numerous crops have been destroyed after more than a week of rain.

CUBA - There are reports of more than 200 millimeters of rain having fallen in different locations. The Defense Councils are activated with the prospect of swollen rivers and flooding. The presence of a widespread area of low pressure in the northeast region of the Caribbean Sea, together with favorable conditions at different levels within the atmosphere, was ensuring the increased probability of showers, heavy rainfall and electrical storms in the eastern region of Cuba. Las Tunas reported that the region received 117% of the normal rainfall for October during the first 10 days of the month alone. The province of Guantánamo remained cut off from Santiago de Cuba by road because of the continuous rising levels of La Yaya reservoir, the largest in the territory. Several points in Niceto Pérez municipality are also isolated. The National News Agency reported the evacuation of 390 inhabitants from the Río Cauto municipality in Granma, where flooding has affected more than 1,000 homes in low-lying areas. It has also been reported that territories linking Holguín and Las Tunas are presenting a more complex situation. The Sagua de Tánamo and Mayarí Rivers in Holguín have burst their banks and the number of evacuees exceeded 2,200.

TUNISIA - At least nine people died and eight others went missing in torrential rains that caused serious damage in and around the Tunisian capital.

SPAIN - Torrential rain on Spain's eastern Mediterranean coast caused flooding that blocked highways and forced people to flee their homes on Friday. The Valencia region, one of Europe's most popular tourist destinations, was hardest hit. Residents of Denia were forced to flee after the Girona river burst its banks. Valencian towns such as Calpe and Alcoy also suffered flooding and the city of Valencia closed its port and diverted aircraft from its airport. On the Balearic island of Ibiza, a kitesurfer was killed when a gust of wind slammed him into the wall of a hotel.

THAILAND - The flood situation in the northeastern province of Kalasin has eased but the inundation is reported to have damaged some 80,000 rai of farmland and affected about 50,000 households. A 50 year-old man was drowned yesterday in flood water while fishing in Phitsanulok's Muang district, bringing the province's death toll to five. The flooding situation in the district remained critical, with residents having suffered inundation for a week due to continuing northern run-offs and steady rain. Heavy downpours all over the country could lead to flash floods in waterfalls. A survey found 267 flash flood-prone waterfalls, mostly located in national parks and wildlife sanctuaries. Down south, following days of heavy rain, residents of Tambon Nong Chang Lan in Trang's Huay Yot district urged authorities to inspect a seven-metre-deep and six-metre-wide sinkhole and nearby cracks in the earth's surface in a rubber plantation, as they feared it might affect their residential areas.

AUSTRALIA - Lismore faces a damage bill likely to reach into the tens of millions after a FREAK storm yesterday threw tennis ball-sized hailstones onto the city. Witnesses said the deluge left some buildings looking like they had been bombed. 17 people were taken to Lismore Base Hospital's emergency department with cuts and bruises after being hit by hailstones or broken glass. The storm caused extensive damage across Lismore and Bexhill. Cars across the city were badly damaged, with hundreds suffering dents and smashed windscreens from the hail. Yesterday's storm intensified when it combined with a trough off the coast and a southerly change.

CALIFORNIA - With almost an inch of rain in parts of Solano County, Friday was ONE OF THE WETTEST OCTOBER 12THS SINCE PRECIPITATION RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT.

IOWA - Giant atmospheric waves over Iowa. Giant waves -"undular bore waves"- were photographed Oct. 3rd flowing across the skies of Des Moines, Iowa. "These waves were created by a cluster of thunderstorms approaching Des Moines from the west. At the time, a layer of cold, stable air was sitting on top of Des Moines. The approaching storms disturbed this air, creating a ripple akin to what we see when we toss a stone into a pond." Undular bores are a type of "gravity wave"- so called because gravity acts as the restoring force essential to wave motion. "We're all familiar with gravity waves caused by boats in water. When a boat goes tearing across a lake, water in front of the boat is pushed upward. Gravity pulls the water back down again and this sets up a wave." Playing the role of boat, the thunderstorms tearing across Iowa on Oct. 3rd spawned a train of four waves. Undular bores may play a surprising role in severe weather. "For one thing, we believe undular bores can amplify tornadoes. Furthermore undular bores may be a source of thunderstorms." That's right, thunderstorms make undular bores and undular bores return the favor. "These waves churn up the atmosphere, causing instabilities that can initiate and sustain severe storms." Typical waves measure 5 miles from peak to peak and race across the sky at 10 to 50 mph. "An undular bore passes over any given point in the United States about once a month," a scientist estimates. [SITE NOTE - the 3rd was the same day that fireballs were spotted over Iowa.] (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Climate change will impact global river flow - A global analysis of the potential effect of climate change on river basins indicates that many rivers impacted by dams or extensive development will require significant management interventions to protect ecosystems and people. "As a result of damming and development, major rivers worldwide have experienced dramatic changes in flow, reducing their natural ability to adjust to and absorb disturbances." Projections indicate that every populated basin in the world will experience changes in river discharge - some are expected to have large increases in flood flows while other basins will experience water stress such that there is not enough water to meet human needs. The study also finds that nearly one billion people live in areas likely to require action.

Friday, October 12, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
To me, old age is always 15 years older than I am.
Bernard M. Baruch

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/11/07 -
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.5 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.4 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Bulusan volcano sustained its restiveness Thursday, generating over a hundred volcanic quakes in the past 24 hours.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15 was 760 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression LINGLING was 1049 nmi NNE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Mixed Atlantic hurricane season puzzles experts - Judge the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season by the 13 storms so far, and it looks like a relatively busy year. But look at the number of days a hurricane has swirled in the Atlantic, or use other measures of a storm season's ferocity, and 2007 has been surprisingly benign. Hurricane experts had predicted the season to be above-average because of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the continuance of a decades-long natural period of increased storm activity, and the development of La Nina weather conditions in the Pacific. Many tropical waves, often a precursor of a tropical storm, developed in the Atlantic over the busiest weeks of the season between September and early October, and eight named tropical storms formed in September - matching a record for the month. But apart from maximum-strength Hurricane Felix, which slammed into Central America on September 4, most were exceedingly brief or weak, meaning September only registered 3.5 days with a hurricane. The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University had predicted 20 hurricane days that month. The main reason for the low number of hurricane days this year has been high vertical wind shear - the difference in windspeeds at different altitudes - which tears storms apart while they try to form. The presence of the shear has scientists puzzled. A periodic cooling in sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, known as La Nina, is supposed to reduce shear over the Atlantic. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Tuesday the La Nina phenomenon had definitely kicked in and would be weak to moderate this winter. That could make the end of the six-month hurricane season a little busier than one might otherwise expect because a normal increase in late-season wind shear might be suppressed by La Nina. In addition to the shear, this year saw a lot of northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere that brought dry air over the tropical Atlantic where many storms form.

VIETNAM - The death toll from Vietnam's Typhoon Lekima rose to 86 as rescue workers rushed to get aid to thousands of people still stuck in flooded areas Wednesday. Nine people were still missing and feared dead. The flood waters that inundated central Vietnam continued receding Wednesday, but large sections of Nghe An and neighboring Thanh Hoa province remained unreachable by car. About 10 million Vietnamese had been affected by Typhoon Lekima. The typhoon washed away 6,000 houses, damaged 52,000 houses and destroyed about 200,000 acres of crops. The initial damage estimate from the typhoon is $131 million.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Severe storms hit Queensland again today as the clean-up continued from a week of extreme weather, damaging winds, large hailstones, and what has been described as a "mini tornado". A severe storm cell hit the town of Mitchell in southwest Queensland about 11pm (AEST) yesterday, ripping roofs from buildings and causing extensive damage. 160,000 homes and businesses in southeast Queensland had lost power at some stage since Sunday.

HAITI - Heavy flooding caused by five days of rain has killed at least three children in Haiti. Rising waters have flooded roughly 4,000 homes across the country since the start of the month. Widespread deforestation has left much of the Haitian countryside unable to absorb rainfall, while poor drainage and shabby home construction put many residents at further risk during sustained rain. The rain in Haiti stems from the same system that has been affecting Jamaica's weather for the past few days.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NORTH CAROLINA - The ongoing drought is now widely believed to be THE WORST ON RECORD for this area, surpassing even the historic 2002 dry spell.

GEORGIA - Gainesville drought COULD BE THE WORST EVER. The 2007 drought and its potential effect is UNPRECEDENTED and historic.

The number of wildfires in the United States will see an UNPRECEDENTED increase, thanks to the ongoing climate change.

METEORS -
IOWA - 10/10/07 - Around 2 p.m. Wednesday, in Sioux City, the Woodbury County Communications Center received reports of something falling from the sky. Callers talked about a "fire ball." Officials may never know if the flaming object shooting through the sky Wednesday afternoon was in fact a meteor. "We can't confirm at all what it is. There's suspicion that it was a meteorite, but we have no confirmation whatsoever." Reports of meteor sightings were made from Sergeant Bluff to Sioux County.

Thursday, October 11, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The young have aspirations that never come to pass,
the old have reminiscences of what never happened.
Saki

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/10/07 -
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 GUAM REGION
5.2 TONGA

QUAKE / MYSTERY BOOMS-
AUSTRALIA - The BIGGEST QUAKE IN 40 YEARS to hit the Great Southern has cracked the walls of one man’s home but left his neighbours’ homes unscathed. The quake, which registered 4.8 on the Richter scale, left his house trashed. “I do know that it happened just around 8 oclock because my clocks all jumped off the wall, along with all my pictures, and the clocks stopped.” While many people reported that the quake had shaken their house, for this man the experience was quite different. “I never had a shake I just had an almighty boom.” He has been expecting something like this for some time. “For the last few months I’ve also been getting these booms and it took a while to work out what it was. It sounded like something landing on the roof – we’re talking something pretty heavy, not like a swan or a bird, more like an elephant. I’d ring my neighbours up after and say ‘did you hear that? Did you feel it?’ and they’d say ‘no we never felt anything’. I almost felt like I was going mad, that I was just imagining it although I know one time my daughters were here staying with me and they said ‘what is that dad?’ and I said ‘I don’t really know’. So it’s been very localised but it hasn’t happened for at least a month which had me concerned - either it was going away, or this was coming and this is what came." (photos)

INDIA - A geologist has visited 8 Gir villages to study mysterious rumbling sounds that have been occurring for the past several days. He said that the sounds are certainly not emanating from earthquake tremors or its aftershock, but were caused due to "block system", which might be the after-effect of the 2001 massive earthquake in Kutch. However, he refused to elaborate. Asked about his observation of the recurring phenomena, he replied that he cannot say anything with certainty about its root cause. The villages of Haripar, Jasapar, Moruka, Suruva, Vadla, Akol Vadi, Rasoolpara and Hadamatiya experienced the rumbling sounds on the 8th, spreading panic among the people who rushed out of their houses as the vessels started making a huge rattling sound. Many houses developed cracks on the walls. All of the villages fall within a radius of 15 kilometers. The village of Jaspar experienced 15 such sounds. These events are not new, and three years ago such sounds were felt in Haripur. A seismograph installed between October and December of 2001 has so far recorded more than a thousand tremors, ranging up to 3 on the Richter scale. The Haripur village and nearby areas had again experienced the rumbling sounds during December of 2004.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FLORIDA - A half-year's rain comes down in 3 weeks - In Jacksonville, just over 23 inches of rain, almost a half-year's worth, fell at the Beaches through the last three weeks as northeasters and other turbulence soaked the region. The deluge from Sept. 17 to Oct. 5 brought the Beaches' 2007 rainfall total to 47.7 inches. The Beaches typically receive about 50 inches of rain a year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT/ CLIMATE CHANGE-
EUROPE - Climate change deadlier than car accidents - Europe needs to take drastic action to reverse complex environmental issues that have shortened the life expectancy of its people by almost a year, the European Environmental Agency said Wednesday. "Air pollution continues to pose a significant threat to health: it shortens average life expectancy in western and central Europe by almost one year and affects the healthy development of children." The continent needs to act fast to deal with challenges including the poor quality of air and drinking water, adverse impacts of climate change and continuing biodiversity loss. "This requires a better understanding of the problems we face, their nature and distribution across societies and generations."

GOOD HARVESTS -
APPLES - ENGLAND - A combination of an exceptionally warm April and an exceptionally wet July is responsible for this year's freak apple crop - the BIGGEST APPLE HARVEST IN HISTORY.

APPLES - NEW YORK - While extreme weather conditions have put a 7 percent dent in US apple production since last year, New York is having a tremendous season. Favorable weather conditions have New York State slated to BREAK A RECORD in apple crop production this year. Of 32 apple producing states, seven, including New York, are forecasting increases.

CROP FAILURE / FOOD SHORTAGES -
SOYBEANS - OHIO - Soybeans caught between 'extremes' - The plants are not maturing as they could because of the unusual weather they had through the summer.

SOYBEANS & TOBACCO - TENNESSEE - due to drought, yields are projected to be well below average this year with Tennessee’s soybeans and tobacco being the hardest hit crops. Soybean yields are projected to be down 43 percent and the lowest since 1999. Burley tobacco is down 34 percent from a year ago and at the lowest production since 1922.

RICE - INDONESIA - Dought that had taken place over the past five months (April-August) in Indonesia has affected 94,870 hectares of rice fields in the country. Of the 94,870 hectares, some 7,760 hectares of rice fields were declared totally damaged and underwent harvest failure.

WHEAT - U.S. - strong worldwide demand for wheat stands to drain U.S. stockpiles to the lowest level in 33 years. The United States ships its agricultural commodities across the globe, to friends and foes from Spain to Iraq, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan.

WHEAT - AUSTRALIA - South Australia, the nation's third-largest wheat-growing state, has cut its forecast for wheat production for a second time, as drought damages crops.

BEEF - AUSTRALIA - The drought's imprint has not been limited to wheat, with the national cattle herd cut by 60,0000 because of the lack of feed.

PORK & POULTRY - CHINA - In any other country, a shortage of pigs might be brushed off as a temporary phenomenon, cured by another turn in the perennial “hog cycle” as rising prices prompt higher meat production. But in China, where pork is the staple meat and food counts for a large part of the household budget, the shortage – and its feared spillover to other parts of the economy – is being treated as something approaching a national emergency. Inflation hit 6.5 per cent in August, the highest rate in 11 years, largely because of a 49% year-on-year surge in meat and poultry prices.

DAIRY PRODUCTS - AUSTRALIA - The on-going drought in Australia is likely to have a continued effect on world dairy markets.

EGGS - ENGLAND - Britain is facing an egg shortage in the run-up to Christmas as production becomes increasingly unprofitable. The rapidly rising cost of wheat, used for feeding livestock, has had a knock-on affect to many of the basic food staples, including eggs. And the situation is likely to become worse as many farmers are quitting livestock production, unable to afford to feed their animals. The price of wheat - which makes up half the costs of keeping chickens - had doubled in the past year. Even though the price of eggs had also increased, many producers were not re-investing in their flock for the traditionally busy Christmas period, which could result in a shortage for the first time since the Second World War.

HONEY - AUSTRALIA - Beekeepers in western New South Wales are facing a season of low honey production because of the ongoing drought.

HONEY - U.S. - the news that the 2007 honey crop has been disappointing won't surprise anyone who has picked up the newspaper in recent months. Since early spring, colony collapse disorder, a disease that causes honeybees to suddenly, mysteriously disappear from their hives, has made headlines around the world. But some experts say the more likely reason for this year's weak honey crop, which the National Honey Board says is on track to be smaller than last year's below-par 155 million pounds, is something much more obvious: the weather. In the South, drought and wildfires have prevented flowers from blooming. In the Midwest, a late freeze brought nectar flows in many areas almost to a halt. And in California, the country's No. 2 honey producer, coastal beekeepers reported that there were almost no flowering plants in July.

COFFEE - BRAZIL - The risk of drought during the coffee flowering season in Brazil has become a major cause of concern and speculation among producers.

COFFEE - INDIA - Coffee production in India is likely to see a 10-15% fall owing to the heavy rain and the ensuing pest infestation.

COCONUT / FRUIT TREES - PACIFIC ISLANDS - The southern atolls of Kiribati have been hit by drought. Many fruit bearing trees are affected and in particular coconut. The southern islands are in a drought season and rain has not fallen, if the drought continues, the situation will be critical.

PUMPKINS & CORN - WEST VIRGINIA - dry weather the area experienced in July and August was particularly damaging to many pumpkin crops. Farmers are being forced to cut their corn for silage rather than harvest it, because the ears just aren’t growing as they would in a wetter year. Volatility of the weather this year has been a contributing factor to lower crop yields. “We’ve been getting a lot of rain or no rain, with nothing in between.”

GRAPES & WINE - AUSTRALIA - The price of Australian wine is predicted to soar as the country's crippling drought threatens to halve next year's grape harvest.

VEGETABLES - TAIWAN - up to 90% of the vegetable production fields in central and southern Taiwan were damaged by typhoons in August and September, and it usually takes up to three months for new vegetables to grow. As a result, vegetable prices have almost doubled from last year. Local retail vegetable prices soared again on the strong winds of Supertyphoon Krosa in early October.

TOMATOES - KENYA - heavy rainfall destroyed the crop in the country.

ONIONS - INDIA - unseasonal rains in major onion-producing areas has lead to spoilage and higher prices due to the shortage.
BETEL - INDIA - Torrential rain due to low pressure in the Bay of Bengal coupled with floods has severely damaged betel farms in Tamil Nadu.
TEA - INDIA - The unprecedented floods in Barak Valley in the south of Assam this year have impacted the valley's tea industry and will lead to a loss in crop size. Dispatch of tea already out of factories was halted after road and rail links snapped. The secretary of Tea Association of India termed it a 'disaster of UNPRECEDENTED magnitude.'

COTTON - MALI - unpredictable weather, late rains to slash Mali cotton output by 27%.

COTTON - TENNESSEE - due to drought, yields are projected to be well below average this year. The state’s production of cotton is projected to be down 39 percent from last year, the lowest yield in five years.

WOOL & MUTTON - AUSTRALIA - The ongoing drought is set to continue taking a toll on the nation's sheep flock and wool production.

AFRICA:
GHANA - in the north, the country’s traditional breadbasket, whole towns and villages, and their crops, were submerged by torrential rains between July and August.
BURKINA FASO - the worst floods since 1954 have wiped out thousands of hectares of maize and millet farmland.
NIGER - serious flooding has caused widespread damage to agricultural production.
BENIN - at least 50 villages have been destroyed by floods, with crops, granaries and livestock destroyed.
ETHIOPIA - some 4,000 head of livestock have been drowned or washed away, and 34,000 hectares of land have been damaged.
RWANDA - hundreds of hectares of potato plantations were destroyed.
SOMALIA - many hectares of farmland were destroyed when the Shabelle River burst its banks after heavy rainfall in neighbouring Ethiopia caused the rivers downstream to flood.
COTE D'IVORE, GAMBIA, LIBERIA, MALI, MAURITANIA, NIGERIA, SENEGAL, SIERRA LEONE, TOGO, SUDAN, KENYA & ERITREA have also been severely affected by the floods.
CAMEROON - thousands of people in Cameroon's arid Far North province face food shortages after grazing elephants trampled hundreds of hectares of crops. Floods at the height of the intense June-September rainy season force the pachiderms each year to head south in search of pasture, devastating farmland. "Every year since 1990, the elephants have caused damage, but this year has been particularly bad. Today it is hard to find food and famine is taking root." The situation may worsen as there is a likelihood of a locust invasion from Chad.
UGANDA - The people of Uganda's Karamoja region are in critical need of food after floods destroyed all the roads and bridges linking them to the outside world. 400,000, mainly subsistence farmers, have lost their livelihoods after 600,000 hectares of crops were flooded.
ZIMBABWE - Half of Zimbabwe will soon need food aid - the country has "a really very serious food and every other kind of shortage."

AUSTRALIA - The drought is unprecedented, prolonged, deep and widespread, with every crop hit by the big dry. The drought will cause a food shortage and Australians may have to get used to paying much higher prices, said the Prime Minister, who noted that reduction in food availability and higher prices are already emerging. Australia's severe drought could cause a food shock across the globe.

PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN - An acute shortage of food items in Afghanistan and Pakistan have sent prices shooting upwards.

NEPAL - People in the northern part of Rasuwa district have been facing shortage of foods due to the obstructions in the Pasang Lamhu Highway at Mulkharka for three months. The road to Dhunche was washed away by landslides and it was not repaired. Local businessmen had food stocks for four months but almost 95 percent of the stock is finished.

BANGLADESH - One-third of Bangladesh's low-lying terrain was under water again at the end of September, bringing the total number of people affected by floods since June to an alarming 11.4 million. "This flood is worse than the first one because this time all the crops are completely destroyed. There are no chances of people salvaging these crops as the stagnant flood waters have destroyed the roots."

MONGOLIA - Half of the country’s annual requirement of flour will this year have to be imported from China and Russia. They can grow only 30 percent of the country’s annual needs. Some 10,000 tons more is likely to come as aid from Japan and China. “All this will come to no more than 50 percent of our requirement.” Last year local flour plants supplied 58 percent of the annual need. Unfortunately much of the wheat that came as Japanese aid could not be used as it grew moldy. Officials are hopeful that the shortage will not result in a rise in flour prices. Half of the 200 or so flour plants have stopped working because they have no stock.

BRUNEI - The current rainy season has increased the price of vegetables.

UZBEKISTAN is facing a crisis fomented by food shortage. Mass protests have been held over the high price of food. The average salary in Uzbekistan nowadays amounts to $20-30. A kilogram of dough in the meantime costs 1,250 sums ($1) and beef goes at $5.7 a kilogram. Vendors at bazaars are ordered to keep prices down. It comforts the population some, but results in shortages. Private bakeries closed down not long ago because of similar administrative pressure. Regular lines form in the capital for vegetable oil where it sells for 2,300 sums at stores and 1,800 at bazaars.

VENEZUELA - Corn may soon be in short supply. Many food staples are already scarce. Among these are powdered milk, sugar, coffee, chicken, rice and black beans, and producers have warned that the latest candidate to join the list is pasta because of shortfalls in wheat supply. And the price of peppers suddenly started to go up by leaps and bounds.

KOREA - At least 10 per cent of the total agricultural land was inundated by flood waters.

CHINA - North China's Hebei Province is suffering from a drought with more than 530000 hectares of farmland affected.

U.S. - Australia's drought, which has sparked record wheat prices, is hurting Americans at supermarket checkouts across the US.

WORLD FOOD SUPPLY - if we stopped harvesting corn, milking cows or slaughtering animals, there would only be food supply enough for 57 days. It seems a faintly ludicrous suggestion that in this world where we expect an endless supply of food and drink to be available at the supermarket 24 hours a day that world food stocks are so limited, but they are - and the reserves are getting smaller. At the end of World War II the globe had a year's worth of food banked up but in the last sixty years that has dwindled down to just 57 days and sometimes goes much lower than that. Eggs, bread, milk and bacon are just some of the staples that have had a price increase, or if not yet, they will very soon.

The Food Shortage Reality - The time of overflowing vats and overstocked shelves is coming to an end. We do not hear of huge surpluses in food production anymore, of massive stockpiled reserves for shipment to countries in famine, or as a hedge against times of extreme weather or blight by disease. Those days are over. The days of plenty are a thing of the past. Prepare now for increasing shortages of staple food products. The reality is that a number of historical leaders in agricultural exports are now becoming net importers of food products. In 1994, a Washington-based research group warned of a potential national food shortage and its consequences by or before 2030. But figure in the increasing occurrences of floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, drought and other unnatural disasters and it is sure to occur much sooner than predicted. Not only is most of the globe's arable land already under production, but 35 percent of that land is seriously degraded due to intensive chemically based farming practices. Add to this the increasing dependence of the farm sector on hybrid varieties that have no capacity to self-replenish (by the designs of such corporate entities as Monsanto Chemicals) plus the continuing escalation of energy prices, and you have a recipe for agricultural disaster. [FYI - this article is by a religious organization]

Desertification is creeping up on world agriculture - Extreme weather patterns are threatening a number of regions around the world with desertification and a steep drop off in food resources. There has been an increasing trend in extreme events observed during the last 50 years, particularly heavy precipitation events, hot days, hot nights and heat waves. "The combination of these events can lead to land degradation and subsequently desertification," as has been demonstrated by a fall of between 40 and 60 percent in corn production in Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Lesotho. "Only about 11 percent of the global land surface can be considered as prime land, which must feed a world population of 6.3 billion today and the 8.2 billion expected in the year 2020."

Wednesday, October 10, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
America's greatest strength, and its greatest weakness,
is our belief in second chances, our belief that we can always start over,
that things can be made better.
Anthony Walton

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/9/07 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.4 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Indonesian officials in two districts on the slopes of a volcano on Java island have been put on standby - with all leave cancelled - because of a potential eruption, officials said Tuesday. The order, which means they should not leave the districts, was issued "so evacuation and relief efforts can proceed smoothly. "There have been no significant changes, Kelut is still at the same alert status level." Mount Kelut has been placed on the second highest of four alert levels. It had been showing signs of increasing volcanic and seismic activities in past weeks, and the state volcanology office had warned of an eruption at any time. Signs of an imminent blow-out were much stronger this time than preceding an eruption in 1990. That was the last time the volcano went off. An estimated 15,000 people have been killed by the volcano in the last 500 years, including around 10,000 in a 1568 eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - The northern New South Wales town of Lismore was bombarded by large hailstones today as a severe storm swept through the area. The state's far northeast was being lashed by a series of severe storms for the second day in a row. Hailstones reported to be up to the size of tennis balls smashed windows, car windscreens, and skylights, and broke roof tiles, as well as damaging the police and ambulance stations in Lismore. Damage to a local telephone exchange was hampering attempts to call for assistance. There had been reports yesterday of larger hailstones "the size of apples", but they had fallen on remote areas. The weather bureau said the thunderstorms were likely to produce destructive winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the area over several hours.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

'An Inconvenient Truth' - On October 2, 2007 a British court found Al Gore's film to be politically biased, and it ruled teachers must warn students of that bias before showing the film. The linked article elaborates on factual errors in the film identified by the court. "Al Gore's movie is nine parts political propaganda and one part science. Virtually every assertion that Gore makes in the movie has been strongly contradicted by sound science."

AFRICA - The annual wildebeest migration is one of nature's most spectacular photo-ops, with more than a million wildebeest — also known as gnus — crossing from the Serengeti. The photos from this year's migration are just as dramatic, but for a different reason. This time, piles of wildebeest carcasses line the riverbanks, after 10,000 of the animals drowned trying to cross the Mara at the start of their journey back east to the Serengeti. The deaths are natural: each year crocodiles and the strong current claim some victims. The numbers, this year though, are BIZARRE. The migration rarely leaves more than a few thousand dead; but this year, an estimated 100,000, or about 1% of the wildebeest population, were wiped out. The Mara River was especially high this year, after the heavy rains that flooded parts of Africa, killing hundreds of people and uprooting thousands more. Climatologists are pointing to the downpours as proof that predictions that Africa will suffer the most from global warming and climate change are already coming true. "Climate change has accentuated the difference between the seasons, making the rainy season shorter and heavier and the dry season hotter." The weather extremes on the African plains are getting so intense that it may no longer be enough for conservationists to simply protect nature. They might have to start improving on it. "The best thing that conservationists can do is to better design the protected areas." During a very dry dry season, that could mean having an area of back-up grass that's opened to the wildlife only if they absolutely need it. Or, in a very wet wet season, creating an alternative migration route across a shallower part of the river. It's too early to tell how the mass drowning will affect Africa's wildebeest population as a whole. But it's safe to say that as the weather gets more erratic, these kinds of freak deaths will become more common — early last year, the Masai Mara had the opposite problem, and a drought left almost 100 hippos dead.

KENTUCKY is wondering whether weather patterns will be permanent - October in central Kentucky HAS NEVER BEEN HOTTER than it was Sunday and Monday when high temperatures flirted with 90 degrees. Add that to the fact AUGUST WAS THE HOTTEST MONTH EVER and one question begs to be asked: What the heck is going on here? Some climate predictions called for 2007 to be the Earth’s warmest year on record, a forecast Kentucky’s weather matches. A high-pressure ridge has blanketed the area, and when it looks as if it’s breaking down because of a passing frontal system or a shift in the jet stream, it re-forms. The National Weather Service predicts above-normal temperatures from December through February. Also, precipitation is expected to be more plentiful than in an average winter. Another player in this year’s odd weather is a La Niña system, which has developed in the Pacific Ocean. While its effects on Kentucky historically have been variable, it’s expected to bring dry weather to the South. As for central Kentucky’s drought, Bowling Green is 17 inches below normal and Louisville is down 9 inches.

TENNESSEE - The latest Drought Monitor puts Chattanooga right in the middle of the worst drought conditions in the country. The Climate Prediction Center says it doesn't look good for the next three months. While things could improve in other parts of Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia, Chattanooga's drought should hold on or even get worse. Catoosa County, Georgia, is also suffering from drought. "We're down a total of 34 inches for 3 years, and that means if it goes down more, the spring is probably gonna go down more." The county uses a spring as its water source, but continued drought conditions have taken its toll on that spring. "We may be in trouble." The county's spring produces 4 and a half million gallons of water everyday, but that's down from 6 million last year.

PENNSYLVANIA - In Philadelphia, Monday's official high of 89 degrees ECLIPSED THE RECORD of 84 degrees set in 1887.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
POT PIES - Health officials said Tuesday that Banquet turkey and chicken pot pies might be linked to 139 cases of salmonella in 30 states, and ConAgra Foods Inc. voluntarily stopped production at the Missouri plant that makes the pot pies. The largest numbers of salmonella cases had been reported in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Spike in E coli–related beef recalls alarms officials - A Wisconsin meat producer recently recalled about 845,000 pounds of frozen ground beef because of possible contamination with Escherichia coli O157:H7, only a day after the Topps Meat Co., a leading producer of frozen hamburgers, announced it was going out of business because it couldn't bear the cost of a recent massive recall. The two events are the latest in a string of ground beef recalls this year related to E coli contamination. The rising number of incidents worries health and industry officials, because it could represent an erosion of safety gains the industry had achieved since 2002, when a massive E coli outbreak linked to ground beef from ConAgra sickened at least 46 people in 16 states. E coli contamination has prompted 11 ground beef recalls so far this year. Six were prompted by routine sampling by the company or the USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service and were not linked to any illnesses. However, the other five recalls, including ones by Topps and Cargill, were touched off by illness reports.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Science is built with facts as a house is with stones —
but a collection of facts is no more science than a heap of stones is a house."
Jules Henri Poincare

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/8/07 -
5.7 FIJI REGION
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
IVORY COAST - The historic old colonial town of Grand Lahou is in danger of being swallowed up by the sea. Some predict the town will be under water in 10 years. Once one of the first points of contact between Africans and the French, Grand Lahou is threatened by a combination of climate change and other factors. If it does disappear under the waves it will be something like a second death for the town. First the imposing old French colonial buildings were abandoned, and now the current ramshackle houses that sprang up alongside the old French buildings are threatened. "We have rebuilt our house 20 metres away. But I am still scared. The way the sea keeps rising, it is certain to reach there too." Residents of this poor fishing community don't want to move away from their sources of income - the sea and the nearby lagoon. But a combination of the sea to the front and the water behind is killing Grand Lahou. The uncontrolled mouth of the river Bandama is attacking the town from behind, while the sea is eroding it from the front. Most of the town's inhabitants have moved to a new town, Nouveau Lahou, some 15km (9.4 miles) away. But several hundred are still here. The problem is not restricted to Grand Lahou either. Erosion is affecting much of Ivory Coast's coastline, and indeed many other places in West Africa. But solutions are extremely costly. (photos)

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - Is Mount St. Helens winding down its three-year-long eruption or just getting ready for a quick cat nap? Scientists at the U.S. Geologic Survey in Vancouver are debating that very issue as the eruption's steady production of molten rock continues to slow. No one expected the eruption to last three years when the mountain rumbled back to life in late September of 2004 after an 18-year snooze. The post-eruption dome building of the 1980s lasted six years, but it occurred in fits and starts, not one continuous event. "This one has just been continuous and we haven't had any explosions since March 8, 2005, and that's been a surprise. This has just been a continuous extrusion of rock. We haven't seen this kind of cycle [before]." One theory for the difference is that the pool of molten rock driving this eruption is low in gas levels, making it less explosive. Another is that the slowdown is simply the start of the first "break" in the eruption, similar to periods of no activity during the 1980-86 dome-building events. When the eruption first started in October of 2004, 7.8 cubic yards of lava oozed out of the peak every second. The rate has declined to about 0.35 cubic yards. The volcano also has shifted the spot where it was producing new material during the past three years. At first new material appeared in the east end of the crater and then shifted to the south. Now, most of the new material is emerging from the southwest part of the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm KROSA was 274 nmi NNE of Taipei, Taiwan.

CHINA - Some five million people have been affected by the powerful storm that hit China's south-east coast, destroying houses and causing widespread flooding. More than 1.4 million people were evacuated ahead of Typhoon Krosa, which struck Zhejiang and Fujian provinces on Sunday. No deaths were reported and it was later downgraded to a tropical storm. Typhoon Krosa struck Taiwan before making landfall in China on Sunday afternoon, where it was estimated to have caused more than $600m (£300m) worth of damage. About 75,000 fishing vessels were recalled to port as gale-force winds and heavy rain hit the south-eastern provinces. The storm halted air, sea and road traffic and closed schools, while houses were destroyed in the port city of Wenzhou. Krosa has now been downgraded to a tropical storm and is heading back out into the East China Sea, but officials in Fujian and Zhejiang have warned of more rain and possible landslides in the coming days. Typhoon Krosa is the 16th typhoon to hit China this year.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - More than 3,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in southwestern China after a huge landslide dammed a river, creating a menacing lake that threatened to burst. The landslide occurred Friday when an estimated 500,000 cubic meters (18 million cubic feet) of mud and rock tumbled into a river near Guangyuan city in Sichuan province. No one was hurt in the landslide, but it created a dam 150 meters (492 feet) long, blocking the river and creating a lake that began to expand as water flowed in. The lake has submerged about 187 hectares (462 acres) of nearby crop land. Local authorities began evacuating residents near the site out of fear the landslide dam could collapse at any moment, and have begun work to drain the lake. Reports did not mention the name of the river or what might have triggered the landslide.

NEW ZEALAND - Parts of Wellington copped 150mm of rain yesterday – more than the average MONTHLY total. A slow-moving low pressure front doused the region with heavy, thundery downpours, compounded by gale-force winds. Thirty millimetres of rain fell overnight on Sunday, and parts of State Highway 2 between Upper Hutt and Petone were covered in up to 300mm of water. The Hutt River peaked at over 4.3 metres above normal flow early yesterday afternoon. In Wairarapa, gales of more than 120kmh ripped through exposed areas. Another low is due to move along the troublesome front, bringing continued wild weather for northern and eastern parts of the country. While Wellington would miss the worst of the weather, Hawke's Bay is likely to experience heavy wind and rain.

VIETNAM - Fifty-one people have been killed and 14 others are missing since THE MOST SEVERE FLOODS OVER THE PAST 45 YEARS in Vietnam started hitting the country's northern and central regions on Oct. 4. The flooding triggered by torrential rain damaged some 58,000 houses, inundated 120,000 hectares of subsidiary crops, and submerged transport systems in many areas. Natural disasters, including typhoons and hails in Vietnam killed 339 people, left 274 persons missing, and injured 2,065 others in 2006.

SOUTH DAKOTA - A storm on Sunday dropped a DAILY RECORD of 1.5 inches of rain in Sioux Falls, the previous record was 1.35 inches in 1970.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

MICHIGAN - Unseasonal weather has plants confused. Horse chestnut trees are flowering. "They think it's the warm season again." And who could blame them? All around the town of Royal Oak, it felt like high summer Monday as temperatures climbed to an astounding 90 degrees, BREAKING A RECORD set in 1939. Irises and day lilies are flowering in backyards. And azalea buds are "plumping up a bit." "I thought it was UNUSUAL because the lilies are usually spent by now."

KENTUCKY - At 4:03 p.m., the Louisville temperature hit 93 degrees. "We SET A RECORD for the day as well as the month." The old record for Oct. 7 was 89 degrees, set in 1916 and 1941. The old record for October was 92, set on Oct. 4 and 5, 1959, and on Oct. 2, 1953. "We hit the highest temperature and the latest date."

NEW YORK - Another RECORD WAS SMASHED Monday as the Southern Tier measured RECORD-BREAKING HEAT for the third time in five days. Monday's high of 82 degrees shattered the old record of 76 degrees for Oct. 8 recorded in 1993 at the Greater Binghamton Airport. The normal high temperature for the date is 59 degrees. The Weather Service recorded record-breaking high temperatures for the individual dates - on Thursday with 85 degrees, Friday with 85 degrees, and Saturday with 82 degrees.

WASHINGTON D.C. - The Washington region is in the grips of a heat wave, and they cracked some longtime records. Thermometers at Dulles International Airport reached 91 degrees, BREAKING THE RECORD set in 1982. Thurgood Marshall-Baltimore Washington International Airport topped out at 89 degrees, cracking the 88-degree record set in 1931. And Reagan National Airport flirted with the 88-degree record set in 1931, reaching 87 degrees on Monday. The normal high temperature for October 8th is 71 degrees.

AUSTRALIA - Interactions between major oceans, triggered by climate change, will produce increasingly dry conditions in southern parts of Australia for decades to come. A full recovery would take around 600 years, IF carbon dioxide emission increases were halted. "The recovery takes a long, long time.... Not in our lifetime." As it stands, the CSIRO is forecasting a further 10-15 percent decline in rainfall in southeast Australia and a decline of over 20 percent in southwest Australia by 2050. This takes in Australia's capital cities, almost all of the national population of around 20 million, and farmlands which produce one of the biggest exportable surpluses of agricultural produce in the world. As crops wilt and die for lack of rain, this year's spring rainfall could be as much as 40 percent below average because of an UNUSUAL weather pattern last seen in 1967 - but which is now more likely to recur because of climate change. Australia is presently being affected by the conflicting influences of a "wet weather" La Nina event in the Pacific and a "dry weather" Indian Ocean Dipole effect in the west. In southwest Western Australia, the drying-out is being intensified by westerly wind jets shifting towards the Antarctic in response to ozone depletion over the last 30 years. The overall effect is reduced rainfall for southern Australia in winter and spring - exactly when it is needed to grow the country's main crops of wheat, barley and canola. The effects are threatening permanent closure for many southern farmlands, already on the brink in the driest inhabited continent in the world. No relief is seen from the present dry spell until November - too late for wheat, with at least 40 percent of the crop now lost. Talk is beginning to emerge of a long-term solution in moving farms to the high-rainfall belt in the far north. Howver, more work needs to be done to see if this pattern will last.

Monday, October 8, 2007 -
A light disaster news day - hurrah!

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
I don't necessarily agree with everything I say.
Marshall McLuhan

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/7/07 -
5.0 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, ECUADOR

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Conservation experts are to reverse five centuries of British history and deliberately allow rising sea levels to flood a huge stretch of reclaimed Essex coastline. In the most ambitious and expensive project of its type, the RSPB intends to puncture sea defences around Wallasea island, near Southend, and turn 728 hectares (1,800 acres) of farmland into a mosaic of saltmarsh, creeks and mudflats - making mainland Britain just a little bit smaller. Generations of farmers have worked the land there for 500 years, since Dutch settlers first built a wall wall around the remote strip of coast; the RSPB wants to transform the area into a wildlife reserve. As the sea returns, so should otters, wild plants, fish and birds, some of which have not nested in the UK for more than 400 years. " We will be restoring habitats that were lost more than 400 years ago and preparing the land for sea level rise. This is land that was borrowed from the sea that now the sea is reclaiming." Similar projects are under way in Germany, the United States, Denmark and Holland.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm KROSA was 164 nmi NNW of Taipei, Taiwan.

Krosa, the year's 15th typhoon, is expected to drench Jeju Island and parts of the southern Korean peninsula until Tuesday, and a heavy rain alert has been issued for those areas. The storm should dissipate over seas far to the south of Jeju on Wednesday. The Korea Meteorological Administration said on Sunday that Typhoon Krosa, which has struck Taiwan, and hit Mainland China, then will head back out to sea again, but a cold continental high pressure system from the north should keep it away from Korea. Krosa is expected to weaken by Wednesday afternoon and disappear around waters some 410 km northeast of Shanghai. But before it disappears, Krosa will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Jeju Island and southern Korea. Heuksando in South Jeolla Province on the southwest coast reported RECORD RAINFALL of 131 mm on Sunday. Jeju should expect 150 mm and South Kyungsang Province 120 mm on Monday. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

ILLINOIS - Sunday's RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURE hit a high of 87 degrees at the O'Hare weather station. The Chicago marathon was cut short around noon due to the high temperatures. More than 300 people were transported to various hospitals out of 35,000 runners. One man died. The marathon normally runs 26.2 miles and people were diverted at about 13.5 miles and were shuttled to the finish line area. This is the first time the course has been shut down in race history. The previous record temperature for Oct. 7 was set in 1947 when the temperature soared to 86 degrees.

CONNECTICUT - an enormous high pressure system over the Northeastern U.S., that extends from the ground into the stratosphere, is blocking all storms that head this way. As air sinks in the high pressure column, it is compressed, warms, and absorbs moisture, interfering with the formation of clouds. Meanwhile the clockwise-spinning high is bringing up RECORD-BREAKING HOT southern air. "This is a summertime, July or August pattern. You don't expect to find it in October." The huge high is moving west, but another high pressure system is building in its place. "It's an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN." The shoreline has received about one foot of precipitation less than normal since the beginning of the year and no drenching storms are in sight.

Sunday, October 7, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/6/07 -
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
10/5/07 -
5.1 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION
6.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Tsunamis after next Cascadia earthquake might be more damaging than ground shaking - Ground shaking caused by the next predicted Cascadia earthquake off the western coast of British Columbia is expected to result in losses of between US$40 and US$60 billion — and damage losses resulting from the accompanying tsunami waves could be even larger than that, based on studies of the scale of tsunami run-up from a rupture of the whole 1,100-km long Cascadia Subduction Zone, or just its northern segment. Such an earthquake, scientists predicted “would have [tsunami] run-ups in the 5-8 metre range, and as high as 16 metres in places.” Even minimum, high-velocity inundations of between 0.3 km and 1.3 km — with a mean inundation of 0.5 km — “highlight the serious threat of a future tsunami to the coastal zone of British Columbia and the western United States.” In California, economic loss estimates as a result of a tsunami are on the order of US$270 billion.

SOUTH AFRICA - The giant surf that pounded Durban's coastline in March this year caused damage estimated at R115-million - and it will take at least another two years before the city's beaches and infrastructure are fully repaired. This figure does not include damage suffered to private property, which would push the estimate significantly higher. And the bad news is that surf of similar force and intensity - or even greater - can be expected within the next few years. The sea level is rising along the South African coast. Durban's sea level is rising by about 2.7mm a year.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Augustine volcano in the Far North has been muttering in its sleep, raising the possibility that the population center of Alaska may get ashed for the second time in less than two years. Augustine has blown its top five times in the past half century, most recently in January 2006. The last eruptive period launched in the fall of 2005 and ended in March of 2006. This time, a series of tiny earthquakes began trembling within the massif beneath the summit, possibly suggesting that a blob of viscous magma was wrenching and oozing through solid rock. On Sept. 22, AVO raised the aviation warning code to yellow and issued an advisory to the general public. "While significant, the current earthquake activity is much less energetic than that which immediately preceeded the explosive eruptions in January 2006." But Augustine continues to grumble, and AVO has issued additional statements every day since.

INDONESIA is racing to fix dams as Mount Kelud eruption on high alert - Indonesia was racing to strengthen dams and drainage tunnels Saturday to control a possible hot mud flow from Mount Kelud volcano. Laborers worked to strengthen and expand dams on the east of Java island to be able to hold back deadly mud flows if Mount Kelud erupts in the near future. More than 50 tents arrived Friday to house refugees should the incident occur. The center will distribute 50,000 masks to residents living near Mount Kelud. The government has also made preparations to evacuate about 24,000 people living just outside a danger zone, whenever the highest level of alert is announced. The alert was raised late last month to the second-highest level after sensors on its slopes picked up increased activity and a buildup of gases.

YEMEN - the volcano which erupted on the tiny island of Jabal al-Tair in the Red Sea on 30 September is still active. "It will take time to calm down." The volcano destroyed all the buildings of the naval base, which had to be evacuated as the eruption sent part of the island collapsing into the sea and covered the rest with lava. The authorities in al-Hodeidah, the nearest town on the mainland, have warned fishermen not to approach the island.

HAWAII - Kilauea's lava flow doubled since July 21. The current vent on Kilauea volcano's east rift zone is putting out twice as much lava compared with to eruptive rate before July 21. The amount is three times Kilauea's long-term average. For many years nearly all of the lava flowed southeast to the sea. Since July 21 it has flowed inland to the northeast of the rift zone. Photos on the observatory Web site show an increasing amount of crust, or cooled lava, on top of the lava river from the vent. Lava volume and surface crust are factors that can affect whether localized flows might become long-distance flows that could threaten populated areas. A permanent crust would prevent cooling and allow lava to go much farther. So far the crust is not permanent, but is flowing with the lava. It is also thin, breaking apart easily. And the lava river's level rises and falls, which "does not promote good crust growth." But the crust has been growing.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm KROSA was 60 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan.

CHINA has evacuated one million people as it braces itself for a tropical storm that has already killed four people in Taiwan. Typhoon Krosa has weakened to a tropical storm but is moving towards eastern coastal provinces and cities. Fujian province has issued warnings of possible mud and rock slides. The storm is expected to strike southern Zhejiang and northern Fujian provinces late today. Strong winds, rainstorms and high tides are forecast. (Meteorologists said that it is RARE to witness a typhoon make landfall on China's southeastern coast in October.)
TAIWAN - In northern Taiwan torrential downpours from Typhoon Krosa caused flooding and landslides. At least four people are reported to have died in storm related accidents and more than 52 people have been injured. More than one metre of rain fell in places, and wind gusts of over 185km/h (115mph) were recorded. In Taiwan's capital, Taipei, more than 200 trees were uprooted and several floods reported. Power supplies and transport services were seriously affected. Krosa's sprawling 300km (186 mile) radius ensured its strength was felt across the island.
PHILIPPINES - Typhoon Ineng's initial tally was 20,252 affected in 39 villages in 12 towns in six provinces, 1 dead, 1 hurt. 14 seamen were listed missing in the wake of typhoon "Ineng" (international code name: Krosa). “Ineng" also destroyed 18 fishing boats, 32 cottages and damaged 1,917 houses. The typhoon damaged 12 road sections, 10 major roads, two secondary roads due to landslides, washed-out approaches and the collapse of soil slopes. The National Disaster Coordinating Council registered the “UNUSUAL and sudden occurrence" of big waves in Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Zambales and Misamis Oriental. Flash floods were reported in Cavite, Pampanga and Davao; and sea swelling in Davao City and creek swelling in Kalinga. Landslides were reported in Benguet, Baguio City, Mt. Province, Bulacan, Cuyo, Palawan, and Kalinga.

Experts are also watching another area for possible development in the coming days. This system is located about 435 miles east of Iwo To. It is possible this hybrid system may become better organized in the next couple of days.

VIETNAM - 34 people have died as a result of Typhoon Lekima, which struck on Wednesday, 19 were missing, and many areas are still threatened by flash floods. Disaster officials estimate the cost of the damage in Vietnam at more than $40 million. Thanh Hoa and Nghe An provinces were hit hardest by torrential rains, strong winds blowing off roofs and floods submerging entire villages. “We have not seen flooding like this in 20 years. It was so fast and so out of the blue.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PORTUGAL - Many towns and cities throughout Portugal were flooded this week, causing the evacuation of school children and the elderly as bad weather affected the whole of the country. The emergency services had to intervene and the Meteorological Institute placed the entire country on yellow alert, the second of four levels. In Beja, as well as severe rain flooding 14 different areas of the city, it was also affected by strong winds which caused seven trees in the region to fall. Meanwhile, in the capital, Lisbon, the Alcãntara area was the worst hit as blocked drains overflowed onto the roads.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Forecasters predicted winter-like weather in the central and western United States on Saturday, while unseasonably warm temperatures were in store for the eastern half of the country. Rain and snow, including up to a foot of snow at higher elevations, were expected in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Winter storm warnings were in effect for many high elevation counties in the region — UNUSUAL for this time of year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

ARCTIC - Canadian researchers have recorded a heat wave on Melville Island, high in the Arctic. The island is usually one of the coldest places in North America, but the mercury soared to a RECORD 22 degrees on some days in July. That's more than 15 degrees higher than average. The jump in temperature may devastate the local environment. "What we saw as a result of this was really widespread disruption and slumping and sliding of the soil and the vegetation on top of it...when it gets exceptionally warm like this, as we saw, we have tremendous destabilisation of the landscape, and this affected the rivers quite dramatically. We saw a substantial increase in sediment in the water, and we're not fully sure yet what the impact of that will be."

CANADA - across Eastern Canada the weather was UNUSUALLY warm. Temperatures in some areas in Ontario were expected to reach as high as 30 degrees Celsius. "This is RECORD-BREAKING. We've NEVER SEEN IT IN 150 YEARS OF WEATHER RECORD-KEEPING, to have it so warm, so late in the year." In Toronto, the temperature registered 24 degrees C on Friday and was expected to reach a high of 29 degrees C and a low of 16 degrees C on Saturday. On this day last year, the temperature was 13 degrees C. "At this time of the year last year, parts of Niagara Peninsula were buried up to their hips in snow, and what we're seeing now is just summer living on...It's probably one of the longest summers ever...I've never seen a year with such dry and sunny, weather-free weekends." The late change of seasons in a country known for its brutally cold winters has weather watchers shaking their heads. While fall has already arrived in the West, it is nowhere to be seen in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes.

MINNESOTA - new HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD set in St. Cloud. The mercury hit 85 degrees around 5 p.m on Saturday. The previous record high temperature for the date was 83 degrees, reached in 1961 and 1993. The normal high for Oct. 6 is 62 degrees.

WEST VIRGINIA - Temperatures in Beckley and Parkersburg HIT RECORD LEVELS as unseasonably warm weather continued to grip the state.

MASSACHUSETTS - A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE of 85 degrees at 3 pm Friday shattered the record for the date by 4 degrees in Attleboro.

NEW YORK - a new RECORD HIGH temperature was set at LaGuardia Airport on Wednesday.

SOUTH CAROLINA - Only 6.02 inches of rain fell at Columbia Metropolitan Airport during the three months of July - September. That BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW RAINFALL TOTAL of 7.34 inches for those 3 months.

MOLDOVA - Persistent hot, dry weather across southeastern Europe during the summer left Moldova in its WORST DROUGHT IN LIVING MEMORY.

Leading international fashion designers and industry experts say unpredictable and typically warmer weather worldwide is wreaking havoc on the industry. It is forcing fashion houses to ditch traditional seasonal collections for transeasonal garments that may lead to a drastic overhaul of fashion show schedules and retail delivery dates. "The whole fashion system will have to change. The fashion system must adapt to the reality that there is no strong difference between summer and winter any more...You can't have everyone showing four times a year to present the same thing. People are not prepared to invest in these clothes that, from one season to the other, use the same fabrics at the same weight." So worried are some fashion houses about the impact climate change is having on the way we dress and shop, they are calling in the climate experts. "A lot of my garments are more transeasonal and rather than dropping them into store twice a year like I used to, I tend to move things in and out of store every couple of weeks, depending on the weather." From January 2008, Target will sell swimwear year-round.

OHIO - More than 40 wildfires have broken out since July 1 in the southern portion of Ohio. "That's an uncharacteristically high number for this time of year."

WESTERN U.S. - Fueled by drought and development, wildfires in the West are getting bigger and more aggressive, creating conditions so dangerous that fire bosses are increasingly reluctant to risk lives saving houses — particularly if the owners have done nothing to protect their property. From Southern California to Montana, seven firefighters have died this year battling blazes that have destroyed more than 400 houses, a dramatic increase from last year. Wildfires have always naturally swept the landscape, but scientists say they are becoming more catastrophic. There is little dispute that the wildfires are being fueled by a hotter weather, a yearslong drought, the spread of weeds that burn like oily rags and the buildup of forest debris from decades in which fires were routinely suppressed. So far this year, wildfires have consumed 8.2 million acres nationwide, an area larger than Maryland, and most of it in the West. That figure is fast approaching last year's record of 9.9 million acres, and the fire season can last through November in many parts of the West, particularly in fire-prone Southern California.

A RECORD NUMBER of floods, droughts and storms around the world this year amount to a climate change "mega disaster", the United Nation's emergency relief coordinator has warned. "We are seeing the effects of climate change. Any year can be a freak but the pattern looks pretty clear to be honest. That's why we're trying ... to say, of course you've got to deal with mitigation of emissions, but this is here and now, this is with us already." The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has issued 13 emergency "flash" appeals so far this year. The number is three more than in 2005, which held the previous record. Two years ago only half the international disasters had anything to do with the climate; this year all but one of the 13 emergency appeals is climate-related. "And 2007 is not finished. We will certainly have more by the end of the year, I fear." The only one of this year's emergency appeals not connected to the climate was the earthquake in Peru, in August. The others arose after an UNPRECEDENTED STRING OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS across much of Africa, south Asia and North Korea, and followed severe drought in southern Africa, Nicaragua's category-five hurricane, and extreme climate conditions in Bolivia, which brought both drought and floods. "You can't actually stop disasters happening but you can do a lot to reduce their impact and reduce people's vulnerability to them by making sure people don't live on the coast or river plains, and that roads are raised and dams are in reasonable shape." Little media attention in the west is being devoted to the 'creeping climatic catastrophe'.

Friday, October 5, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The thing that impresses me the most about America is the way parents obey their children.
King Edward VIII

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/4/07 -
5.7 LOMBOK REGION, INDONESIA
5.9 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

An Israeli scientist said ancient documents suggest a major earthquake triggered by the Dead Sea Fault is long overdue in the Middle East. Although seismologists don't know when the next big earthquake will occur, earthquake patterns recorded in historical documents indicate the region's next significant quake might be imminent. Based on the translations of hundreds of ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources, a series of devastating earthquakes occurred across the Holy Land during the last 2,000 years. The major ones were recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C. and in 363, 749 and 1033 A.D. "So roughly we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of 1033. When it strikes - and it will - this quake will affect Amman, Jordan, as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem and Jerusalem."

INDONESIA plans to build suspension bridge in earthquake hotspot - Indonesia plans to build the world's longest suspension bridge across the earthquake-prone Sunda Strait, passing within 50 kilometres of the active Krakatoa volcano. The bridge, traversing 30 kilometres, will link Indonesia's main islands of Java and Sumatra at an estimated cost of $12 billion. At 70 metres high, large ships would be able to pass underneath. Experts said the bridge was technologically feasible, but extensive and expensive safety measures would be essential to withstand earthquakes.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Hundreds of Indonesians have begun evacuating the slopes of a rumbling volcano in East Java following increased levels of toxic fumes and tremors. The country's volcanological survey raised Mount Kelud's alert status to the second-highest level on Sunday, following increased activity. A mix of carbon dioxide and toxic substances seven times normal levels has been recorded from the volcano in recent days, prompting authorities to isolate the area. "We have advised everyone to stay away within a radius of 5 km (3 miles) from the volcano in anticipation of an eruption that could take place any moment. We have reason to believe that the magma is very close to the crater's surface." About 100,000 people, mostly farmers, live on the slopes of Mount Kelud. Many people in villages nearest to the crater, located on the borders of the safe zone, have already left their homes. A 1919 eruption of Mount Kelud caused the lake in its crater to burst through the volcano rim and sent boiling water down its slopes, killing 5,000 people in 104 villages.

PHILIPPINES - Volcanologists in the Philippines have warned residents near Mt. Bulusan Volcano on Luzon Island's in Sorsogon Province, issuing urgent alerts concerning possible mud, ash, and 'lahar flows' after ash explosions early Thursday morning. A spokesman for Phivolcs urged those living near river and stream channels to evacuate to high ground. Recent heavy rains have increased the risk of flash floods and landslides. "Ground surveys... along the at the volcano's northeast flank... indicated a slight inflation of the volcano's edifice," a indication that the volcano is bulging.

NEW ZEALAND - The Department of Conservation is still declaring the upper parts of Mt Ruapehu high risk areas following last week's eruption and are urging skiers, climbers and trampers to keep out of these areas until further notice. DOC has declared the summit and Crater Lake area within a radius of one kilometre from the lake an Extreme Risk Zone. A High Risk Zone has been declared beyond the Extreme Risk Zone down to the top of the ski areas at Whakapapa and Turoa and including the lahar path down the Whangaehu River on the eastern side of the mountain. “A lahar can travel from the Crater Lake to the top of the ski areas in as little as 2-3 minutes depending on the size of the eruption. During last week’s eruption large rocks were thrown from one to two kilometres from the lake, and people are certainly at risk from these if further eruptions occur.” Ski areas will continue to remain open. This eruption was what is commonly called a hydrothermal eruption, caused by the release of pressure under the Crater Lake. It may have been a one-off event but further eruptions can not be ruled out as the open vent conditions under the Crater Lake re-establish themselves. GeoNet equipment detected a smaller volcanic event on Saturday night but the weather since then has prevented any further visual observations. While seismic activity has been generally declining since, further volcanic activity is still possible.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KROSA was 359 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CAMEROON - On September 27, 23 homes were damaged by landslide, including vast farmlands in Abuh village, Fundong Sub Division in the North West Province. Eye witnesses say debris and boulders rolled down toward the steep hills to meet inhabitants in their Abuh valley settlements at about 2 pm last Thursday. The mass movement of land also damaged crops, mud brick houses and fruit trees including maize, kolanuts and raffia palms. 185 people are seriously affected, with 22 families in great pain. Abuh is a dangerous settlement with houses perched on hill sides. Its loose soils, sandwiched by debris and boulders, often come rolling upon the roofs during heavy rains. The assistant Divisional Officer has ordered families residing at the site to quit to safer areas.

UGANDA - The United Nations is continuing to deliver aid to the hundreds of thousands of Ugandans suffering from the WORST FLOODING the Central African nation has SEEN IN DECADES. The latest reports indicate that flooding has spread to two additional districts, bringing the total affected to 32, and the banks of the Rwizi River in south-western Uganda have burst. Water and sanitation systems have been severely disrupted by flooding, raising the risk of an outbreak of waterborne diseases.

GHANA - The United Nations and partner organizations launched a $10-million flash appeal for 75,000 people in northern Ghana, where entire communities have been hit by floods after heavy and persistent rain in late August and mid-September. Farmers in the already vulnerable Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions have lost their crops, vast tracts of land, food storage and processing facilities are submerged, and houses, bridges, schools and health facilities have been destroyed by the waters, which are part of a wider flood crisis across a whole swath of sub-Saharan Africa. "Although floods are common in Ghana, this year's abnormally heavy rain has resulted in flooding that is stretching the ability of affected communities to cope. Food security is a particular concern in areas of the country where people's lives were already precarious." Preliminary assessments reveal an estimated loss of 144,000 metric tons of crops, including maize, sorghum, millet, peanuts, yam, cassava and rice. In addition, prices of all staples have doubled since the flooding, and not all food commodities are readily available at markets due to flooded roads and submerged bridges. This leaves around 75,000 people at risk of malnutrition until next year's harvest, which will take place only if irrigated crops can be planted on schedule.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

WASHINGTON - The summer of 2007 was the DRIEST ON RECORD for the east slopes of the Cascades in central Washington, though the region still managed to escape the drought conditions and catastrophic forest fires that typically accompany dry years. Precipitation at five Yakima Irrigation Project reservoirs this summer was recorded at 18.91 inches between April and September, just 43 percent of average. The previous record low was 20.72 inches in 1939. Record-keeping began in 1912. There was much less lightning activity to spark large fires this summer. When lightning or human-caused fires did get a start, the weather conditions weren't right for fires to quickly spread because there was more moisture in the air and winds were light. Total acreage burned in the Okanogan and Wenatchee forests, and on land managed by the southeast region of the state Department of Natural Resources, was 14,777 acres, compared with 293,137 acres in 2006. The lack of lightning appears to be related to a weather pattern called the four-corners high pressure system, which tends to pull subtropical moisture in a northeasterly pattern toward the Northwest. The system centers on the area where the states of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico meet. That system, while generally in the same location this year, appeared to wobble slightly. The change sent more of the moisture stream toward eastern Oregon, northern Idaho and Montana, areas that saw more lightning and more wildland fires this summer. The national Climate Prediction Center predicts a La Nina weather phenomenon will affect weather in the western United States this winter. During La Nina events, the Northwest climate tends to be wetter than normal and the Southwest is drier than normal.

Dragonflies, open water reveal rapid Arctic change - At the top of Hudson Bay, "we still have ice year-round, but there's been a little bit of changes. Different kinds of insects and different kind of birds that come around our area now." In the summer of 2007, both anecdotal and quantifiable evidence emerged that showed dramatic changes are taking place in the Far North at a faster pace than anyone imagined. "The summer of 2007 was stunning." The Northern Hemisphere is normally covered with 7.5 to 8.5 million square kilometres of ice on average. But on Sept. 17, 2007, scientists calculated that the amount of sea ice hit a new record low of just 4.2 million square kilometres. The fabled Northwest Passage is normally still choked with ice during the summer. At its usual low point, 14 per cent of the shipping route remains covered with ice, which prevents ships from passing unless escorted by icebreakers. This year, just 2 per cent was covered with ice, resulting in the second consecutive summer during which an unaided sailboat could pass through. "Along the 2,300 kilometres of the Northwest Passage you're going around ice for about 20 kilometres as opposed to the usual 400." Experts say it was the peculiar weather Mother Nature offered up last summer - whatever caused it - that is largely to blame for the recent UNUSUAL events. There was a high-pressure system that sat over the Arctic for much of the summer. It shooed away clouds, leaving the sun alone to beat down. That created higher ocean temperatures, which in turn accelerated the melt. UNUSUAL winds compressed sea ice, pushing it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and into warmer water where melting happened more quickly. On Melville Island north of the Arctic Circle, the mean temperature has been reported at just under 5 C in July since records were first kept in the 1950s. "What we observed through much of July [2007] were temperatures in the 15-to-20 C range. The highest temperature recorded was almost 22 C." While the summer melt usually sinks 50 centimetres into the permafrost, the melt depth was down at least a metre or more this year. That caused land to fracture, as well as large slides and flooding. One piece of land slid down a hill and dammed a river 200 metres across. "It's not surprising that this kind of thing could happen, but it's the scale and how rapidly it could occur. The impact of this, even if it's the only time it happens for the next decade, could be felt on the system for many, many years." This year, the dire warnings piled up. Until now, climate models were predicting that the Arctic would be free of sea ice in the summertime by 2040, 2050 or at the latest 2100. Now, 2030 is a more realistic date for that biggest melt of all. "We're a decade ahead of the worst-case scenario." "Sea-ice conditions would have to be substantially better than even the most conservative computer simulations of warming and sea ice" in order to prevent the projected drop in the number of polar bears. NASA warned that with so much Arctic ice melt, the planet may be hitting a tipping point. The thaw may become a self-sustaining acceleration. As the ice shrinks, so does the amount of reflective snow and ice, which in turn leaves the ocean to draw in more heat from the sun. Warmer waters, of course, melt ice more quickly. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany has pronounced that Arctic sea ice has "already tipped."

AUSTRALIA - Drought-stricken farmers could face spring rainfall that is up to 40 percent below average because of a RARE weather pattern last seen 40 years ago. Australia is experiencing an UNUSUAL combination of two events: a La Nina phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in the east, and an Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon in the west. "The only time in [recorded] history we had this kind of combination was in 1967." In that year, spring was extremely dry in the south and east of the country, and this could provide an indication of what is ahead in the next few months. Although La Nina usually brings more rainfall to eastern Australia, it appeared to have been overwhelmed in 1967 by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which reduces rainfall across Australia, including in the south-east. Separate research on an Antarctic ice core suggests this drying may represent a VERY UNUSUAL event. A team has identified a link between rainfall in the south-west and snowfall at a site called Law Dome in East Antarctica. The study of an ice core from Law Dome that covers the past 750 years suggests that the last 30 years in south-west Australia has been the driest period, and longest period of reduced rainfall, since the year 1250. "So media suggestions that the DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA IS A 1-IN-1000-YEAR EVENT is not unreasonable, at least for the south-west."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - Kraft Foods has issued a recall in the U.S. for Baker's Premium White Chocolate Baking Squares (6 oz.), distributed nationwide. This product may be contaminated with Salmonella.

Thursday, October 4, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
In spite of illness, in spite even of the arch enemy sorrow,
one can remain alive long past the usual date of disintegration
if one is unafraid of change, insatiable in intellectual curiosity,
interested in big things, and happy in small ways.
Edith Wharton

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/3/07 -
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA
5.4 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - At least 16 villages were blanketed with thick ash following two explosions of the Bulusan volcano early morning Thursday. At least two residents were rushed to a hospital in Sorsogon City due to ash inhalation. Cleaning operations were still going on with the help of firetrucks from the towns of Bulan and Irosin and Sorsogon City. The two explosions occurred five minutes apart at 1:34 a.m. and 1:39 a.m. No measurement of the height, however, was taken due to lack of visibility. There were 40 volcanic quakes and 8 short-duration harmonic tremors recorded during the past 24-hour observation period ending at 5:26 a.m. Thursday morning. Phivolcs earlier warned of a possible explosion of Bulusan following an increase in the number of volcanic quakes to 20 on September 28. The seismic events on Thursday were almost the same in character to the ash explosion last July 31.

YEMEN - The volcano that erupted on a small island off the coast of Yemen has again begun spewing lava and ash into the air Yemen's navy said on Wednesday. The volcano lies on the island of Jazirt Al-Tair in the Red Sea, about 130 kilometres from Yemen. Inactive for over a century, the volcano first erupted on Sunday after several earthquakes were felt on the island. The volcano has so far produced one kilometre long lava flows and blackened the water within 10 kilometres of the island. Six Yemeni soldiers, part of a garrison of 50 stationed on the island, were killed in the eruption, while another 15 were injured. On Monday Yemen’s coastguard said shipping had been unaffected by the eruption. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KROSA was 430 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 184 nmi S of Hanoi, Vietnam.

Typhoon Lekima slammed into Vietnam's central coast Wednesday night, killing two people, destroying hundreds of houses and unleashing floods in one of the country's poorest regions.
China and Vietnam evacuated hundreds of thousands of people from low-lying coastal areas on Wednesday as Typhoon Lekima, packing winds of up to 120 kph (75 mph) blew in from the east. The typhoon made landfall late on Tuesday near China's beach resort of Sanya, on the southern tip of tropical Hainan island, trapping tourists and forcing the evacuation of over 225,000 residents. Vietnam, meanwhile, started moving children and old people to higher ground in the first steps of a plan to evacuate more than 400,000 people before Lekima hit its central coast. Over 20,000 fishing boats were ordered back to port as the storm shut down almost all tourist attractions in Sanya during what should have been a peak national holiday week. Lekima, which weakened to a tropical storm when it hit Hainan, changed course, returned to sea and gathered strength for an assault on Vietnam. The centre of Lekima was 100 km (60 miles) east of the central province of Ha Tinh, but high waves and rain were already pounding the coast in Nghe An and Ha Tinh provinces. More than 3,000 passengers and some 1,200 cars were stranded in Hainan on Tuesday as ferries linking the island province with the Chinese mainland were suspended because of the typhoon. In Vietnam, an area stretching more than 300 km (190 miles) between the provinces of Thanh Hoa and Quang Binh faced "extreme danger". The storm, which killed five people in the Philippines at the weekend, will not hurt coffee and rice crops or crude oil production which all lie hundreds of miles further to the south. Vietnam often faces up to 10 storms a year and Lekima is the fifth in 2007. Another could be on the way. Tropical storm Krosa has evolved into a typhoon on the west Pacific on Wednesday and the mid-strength typhoon will reach the east coast of Taiwan on Saturday.

Typhoon Krosa underwent a rapid intensification today, as it grew from a Category 1 hurricane into a Category 4 major storm, or super typhoon, in a matter of hours. The storm packs 138 mph winds, and is headed on a track that would take it north of the Philippines, over the norther portion of Taiwan and on to China in the next several days. (satellite photo / map)

ATLANTIC - Hurricane forecasters are tracking four systems in the tropics. Two of them could grow into tropical storms. Two areas of disturbed weather are near Florida. One system is in the Gulf of Mexico and a second is in the Bahamas.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CALIFORNIA - A major hillside collapse in La Jolla caused massive damage to the overlying four-lane road and forced evacuations in a residential neighborhood Wednesday, as San Diego city officials scrambled to determine the extent of the damage. One home was destroyed and at least eight others were in danger as the collapse buckled and folded a 50-yard span of asphalt, leaving deep trenches in the road. Rescue crews were evacuating residents and power and gas lines had been shut off in the area. No injuries were reported. The sinkhole in the La Jolla neighborhood of million-dollar homes cut in a cone shape and was about 50 yards long. "This area has had some slide problems dating back a number of years." Street cracking began on Soledad Mountain Road in July and escalated in August, along with breaks in water and gas lines. At least three significant hill slides have occurred in the general vicinity between 1961 and 1994, including a major failure in 1961 that destroyed seven homes under construction. (photos)

MORE METEORS-
MINNESOTA - 10/3/07 - A flaming object over Minnesota skies Wednesday afternoon may have been a meteor. Shortly after 2 p.m., people across the Twin Cities reported seeing a "metallic" object or "flaming ball" falling from the sky. Broadcasters and emergency dispatchers got hundreds of calls from people who saw the object traveling from the northeast to the southwest. Residents of Lyon County in far southwestern Minnesota reported a loud boom that might have been connected with the sightings in the Twin Cities. A man who lives near the town of Amiret says it shook his house and sounded like a sonic boom from an F-14 breaking the sound barrier at close range.
Coincidentally, at the same time, drivers in the Twin Cities metro were dodging debris in the middle of Interstate 94. Some drivers said the debris fell from the sky shortly after 2:00 p.m. Wednesday. The debris spread across two lanes when a semi truck ran over the small pile around 2:30 p.m. A transportation worker arrived on the scene at 2:45 p.m. and swept the debris to the shoulder. As of 3:15pm, the Federal Aviation Administration has had no reports of anything falling of or from any planes in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Authorities said the debris that fell on the Interstate was an unrelated incident, apparently a pallet that fell off a vehicle, and not connected to the meteor. (photo)
IOWA - 10/3/07 - several residents reported sightings of fireballs in the sky in northwestern Iowa, especially near Sioux City.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

FLORIDA - September rainfall offered only marginal gains for water levels in Lake Okeechobee. Meanwhile, water restrictions remain in effect in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, which means watering lawns is limited to two days per week in most areas. Lake Okeechobee is a primary backup water supply to 5 million South Floridians and the source of water for irrigation across more than 500,000 acres of farmland in the Everglades Agricultural Area. Rainfall for the entire month was slightly above average across the region. However, water levels in most inland water bodies and monitoring wells remain at or near historic lows, as district-wide rainfall remains below average for 2007. Lake Okeechobee water levels have been SETTING NEW RECORD DAILY LOWS FOR 122 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, and according to water managers, the growing disparity between current lake level readings and previous historic lows continues to suggest that South Florida may experience back-to-back water shortage years for the first time since the early 1980s. "South Florida remains in a severe regional water shortage, with the heart of our system, Lake Okeechobee, still nearly 5 feet below normal elevations for this time of year. Absent dramatic rain events in basins north of Lake Okeechobee over the next 30 days, we will almost certainly face a more severe regional water shortage in the spring of 2008."

Wednesday, October 3, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America.
Bill Clinton

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/2/07 -
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.8 ALASKA PENINSULA
6.2 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.3 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ATLANTIC - The combination of an area of high pressure off the Northeast coast and the low pressure in the tropics has created a broad, strong northeasterly wind blowing over a long fetch of the Atlantic. The strong onshore winds have produced large waves and rough surf from Florida to the Carolinas. Severe beach erosion was reported on Tybee Island and Sapelo Island in Georgia. Several lifeguard towers were destroyed on Tybee Island and turtle nesting grounds on Sapelo Island were wiped out. Coastal flooding was reported in Charleston, S.C., and Jacksonville Beach, Fla.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - Scientists are divided over whether Mt Ruapehu's eruption will prove a boon for skiers and snowboarders by keeping more snow on the ground for next season. One glaciologist said a layer of debris scattered over the mountain top from last week's eruption would protect snow that would normally melt, leading to a better ski season in 2008 and beyond. "There are debris, ash and lahar deposits up there that are a few feet thick in some places. This year's ski season is almost over but it will help preserve the snow packet, maybe for years to come, which will be of interest to skiers." As the debris was blown away over the coming years it would leave a base that snowfalls could build upon. But another scientist doubts the eruption would have any effect on future ski seasons. Lahar flows covered only narrow patches of ground, no ash fell on Turoa ski-field and the thin layer of ash above Whakapapa could even accelerate melting. Ruapehu's ski-fields reopened on Thursday, two days after the eruption, but closed again on Sunday because of bad weather. There was a small volcanic earthquake on the mountain, measuring 2.2 on the Richter scale, about 11pm on Saturday.

PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology is keeping a close watch over Mt. Bulusan after it recorded a sudden increase of 20 quakes at the volcano last September 28. The number of volcanic quakes, however, sharply went down to only seven on Tuesday. Officials reiterated calls for residents to keep away from the four-kilometer permanent danger zone and to be always on alert, especially during the rainy season, for volcanic flow from ash deposits on the slopes. The volcano last exploded on July 31 when it sent a five-kilometer column of ash into the air. Bulusan Volcano remains under Alert level 1.

YEMEN - The volcano on a Yemeni island in the Red Sea was spewing a deadly mix of lava and ash for the third straight day on Tuesday, after erupting for the first time since the 19th century. Three soliders had been killed during the eruption on the island of Jabal al-Tair, home to a garrison of 50 soldiers, and five others are missing. A team of volcanologists dispatched to the area reported that the eruption produced one kilometre (0.6 mile) long lava flows and blackened the water within a 9.7 kilometre (six mile) radius of the island. There had been considerable seismic activity around the island ahead of the eruption, the Yemeni defence ministry said on its website. It said an earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale had been recorded on Friday.

KENYA - Scientists are warning of a volcano risk if the proposed construction of a controversial soda ash factory at Lake Natron in Tanzania is allowed to go on. A report released by the scientists said that Ol Doinyo Lengai, a volcanic mountain situated 14 kilometers from Lake Natron where the construction is planned to take place, shows signs of extreme instability. "The area has experienced a series of earthquakes in the last few weeks and these do also represent a major hazard to the planned production site." Eruptions at the active volcanic mountain have in the recent past been causing a spate of earthquakes in Tanzania, reaching as far as Kenya. "The actual crater area shows signs of extreme instability and any hazard evaluation has to consider the sudden failure." If an eruption occurs, at risk is a community of an estimated 10,000 to 20,000, which rely entirely on cattle herding. "A major explosive eruption, with the magnitude of events as documented repeatedly for the last 2000 years, threatens to annihilate the basis for Maasai persistence in the Natron rift area, the rift shoulders of the Crater Highlands and the adjacent Serengeti plain." Environmentalists already saw the project as a threat to Lake Natron's ecosystem. With the new threat of the volcano, it is not yet apparent what course the project will take. India's largest conglomerate of companies, Tata Chemicals, has set its sights on building a soda ash processing factory capable of producing 500,000 metric tonnes of soda annually at Lake Natron. The environmentalists say that the lake which is in Tanzania and touches the border with Kenya is the only remaining significant breeding site for the lesser flamingo, a species that forms the majority of the world's flamingo population. Despite the warnings from environmentalists, the Tanzanian government seems keen to go on with the planned construction and has already carried out an environmental impact assessment that gave the project a green light.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon KROSA was 551 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.
Typhoon LEKIMA was 92 nmi N of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Severe Tropical Storm Lekima was upgraded to a typhoon yesterday afternoon and is moving closer towards south China's island province of Hainan, where 100,000 people have been evacuated. Lekima, upgraded to a typhoon at 2pm, is packing winds of about 118.8km per hour at its eye and heading toward northwest at a speed of 15kmh. It was forecast to land in the south of the island or pass by overnight or today. Apart from relocation of local residents, sluice gates at 17 reservoirs in the province have been opened to divert possible flood water. More than 20,000 fishing boats have been recalled to harbor.
CAMBODIA - Continual rain over the past few days is an indication Cambodia is likely to face tropical storm Lekima, which may bring serious flooding across the nation, local media said on Tuesday. Lekima has moved from Vietnam to China's coastal area, provoking the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology to announce on Sept. 30 that it may soon need to issue flood warnings, should river depth at target points rise above danger levels. The storm would bring incessant torrential rains to Cambodia for days, possibly from Oct. 2 to 5, said the September 30 announcement, making an impact on not only Mekong River Basin but also northeastern provinces such as Ratanakiri, Modulkiri and Preah Vihear, and in the northwest provinces of Kompong Chhnang, Pursat and Battambang.

Tropical Storm Krosa, the 15th storm in the western Pacific this year, formed Tuesday morning east of the Philippines and is likely to affect Taiwan in four to five days. The storm had a radius of 150 km, with maximum center winds of 30 meters per second and gusts reaching 38 meters per second. If Krosa starts moving north in the next few days then it will not approach Taiwan. However, as it is moving very slowly it is still difficult to tell what direction it will take. Krosa has developed into a typhoon and may affect Taiwan as early as this weekend.

ATLANTIC - A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. The cyclone could develop out of an upper-level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and a weak surface low near the southern tip of Florida. The center of the system was located between the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of Florida. The models showed the system will move northwest across Florida. Three of five models show the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in a few days between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. Another model, however, showed the storm moving north up the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia. A subtropical depression has high winds and thunderstorms near the outer edge of the system, while a tropical depression has high winds and thunderstorms near the center. Hence, the biggest damage caused by a tropical system is usually near the center of the storm, while in a subtropical system the biggest effect is closer to the outer edge of the storm. The NHC will name the next tropical storm Noel.
A noted hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University on Tuesday increased its estimate of the number of tropical storms in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season to 17 from 15. (There have been 13 tropical storms so far.) It also estimated there would be a total of seven hurricanes, down from the 9 predicted in May. The hurricane total includes an expectation that Tropical Storm Karen will be upgraded in a post-season analysis.

Cyclones could accelerate climate change. Rising sea temperatures and more intense cyclones in northern Australia could see enormous amounts of carbon released from tropical forests. Studying the impact of Cyclone Monica, which devastated thousands of square kilometres of eucalypt forest in Arnhem Land last year, shows that the loss of tree-stored carbon in a single cyclone would be the same as the nation's emissions from fossil fuels over an entire year. "The best predictions at the moment are that we'll get an increased frequency of very strong cyclones, and maybe a decreased frequency of weaker cyclones. So that will probably mean that large very old trees might be rarer and perhaps less carbon stored in the landcape, so further exacerbating the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and cause more global warming."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - At least 14 people were washed away in flash floods in Guntur, Prakasam and Krishna districts in the last 36 hours.
This year, Goa has witnessed its highest annual rainfall in last six years, experiencing altogether 3264.8 mm rainfall (through 9/23) since the beginning of the monsoon season on June 1. They also received 113.8 mm of rainfall during the month of May. Though the monsoon in the state is supposed to end on September 30, it had continued till mid-October last year. “But this year, the rain has far surpassed all the records of the previous six years.” Meanwhile, the incessant rains in the state would prove to be detrimental to crops, especially paddy grown in the fields.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NORTH CAROLINA - this September WAS THE WARMEST EVER AT GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN. The average high temperature of 67.5 degrees was 4.83 degrees warmer than normal for September, and the average low temperature of 54.27 degrees was 3.77 degrees above normal for this time of year. The previous record for the highest average daily temperature was 67.30 degrees set September 2005. Two daily high temperature records were broken in September. A high temperature reading of 74 degrees was recorded on Sept. 25 breaking the daily high temperature record of 71 degrees set in 1961 and 73 degrees recorded on Sept. 26 broke the previous daily record of 71 set in 1958 and tied in 1993 and 1998. A daily high temperature record was tied Sept. 27. A temperature of 70 degrees matched the original record set in 1986. The all time highest temperature for the month of September at Grandfather Mountain is 78 degrees set Sept. 1, 1993. Grandfather Mountain saw little drought relief during the month of September. The rainfall total of 3.57 inches for the past month was 2.67 inches, or 43 percent below the 51-year average rainfall total for September of 6.24 inches. Rain for the year-to-date totals 34.75 inches, which is 14.9 inches (or 30 percent) below the 51-year norm for this time of year.

INDIANAPOLIS - a DAILY RECORD HIGH of 90 degrees was measured Sunday and another DAILY RECORD HIGH of 92 degrees on Monday.

OHIO - Cinncinati set a RECORD HIGH on Monday. Many places in northern Ohio reached record tempertures.

TAIWAN - Temperatures in the southern region of Chiayi soared to 34.2 degrees Celsius yesterday afternoon - the HIGHEST OCTOBER TEMPERATURE IN THE PAST 40 YEARS in the area, since they began recording temperatures. Whether or not the weather phenomenon is a direct cause of global warming is yet to be determined and will require further readings and long-term monitoring, said the bureau. The unusually high temperature was most likely due to a lack of clouds which allowed for sun rays to directly hit the ground.

UNITED KINGDOM - The sight of a new born lamb gambolling in a field is usually a sign spring is upon us. So a farmer was astonished when he discovered a spring lamb running among his Yorkshire flock, five months early. He did not even realise one of his sheep was pregnant. The lambing season runs between February and April, and experts say a ewe giving birth at the end of September is VIRTUALLY UNHEARD OF. "It is very strange in the farming world because they don't lamb at this time of year...It is a strange phenomenon. It couldn't have been born more out of season." "For a lamb to be born in July or August it is not too uncommon. But a lamb born in September is VERY UNUSUAL. It's the earliest spring lamb I have ever heard about." A farm in Buckfastleigh, Devon, is also welcoming unseasonal arrivals with the hatching of a new clutch of bright yellow ducks. Farm animals are not the only part of country life affected by Britain's barmy weather. Following one of the wettest summers on record, Halloween is set to be a little greener than usual this year. Pumpkins - normally bright orange in October - have failed to ripen thanks to the torrential rain of June and July. A farmer who harvests two million pumpkins a year says he has never known such a green harvest. "I have never known a year like this one in 35 years of growing pumpkins. We have just picked one 25-acre field and they are all green. It just hasn't been warm enough to ripen them. We have green pumpkins stored inside in 25 degrees to try and turn them orange in time."

ANOTHER METEOR -
AUSTRALIA - 10/2/07 - phones rang overnight with reports of a UFO sighting in Melbourne. People from Lilydale to Mt Eliza and Richmond to St Albans called about 9:45pm to say they had seen an amazing bright blue light in the sky with a long blue trail. It was, in fact, a meteor or Bolide burning up in the atmosphere. The meteor entered the atmosphere over north-east Victoria and travelled towards South Australia. "As the Earth moves around the sun in its orbit it sweeps up this sort of material every day. However, not much is larger than a grain of sand. This one however was bigger, probably the size of a tennis ball." The meteor was moving up to 72km a second.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

TAMIFLU - the frontline weapon in any bird-flu pandemic - cannot be broken down by sewage systems and could help the virus mutate dangerously into a drug-resistant strain. Countries around the world are stockpiling Tamiflu in the belief it will help curb any future outbreak of H5N1 avian flu among humans. Tamiflu is not a cure for flu but can ease its symptoms, thus aiding vulnerable patients such as the elderly, and reduce the time of illness, thus easing the burden on caregivers. In the 2004-5 influenza season, 16 million Japanese fell ill with flu, and six million received Tamiflu. At such dosages, the amount of Tamiflu released into the Japanese environment is roughly equivalent to what is predicted in areas where the drug would be widely used in a pandemic. Coincidentally, Japan also has a high rate of emerging resistance to Tamiflu. Among a small group of infected Japanese children, 18 percent had a mutated form of the virus that made these patients between 300 and 100,000 times more resistant to Tamiflu.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The deepest definition of youth is life as yet untouched by tragedy.
Alfred North Whitehead

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/1/07 -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 VERACRUZ, MEXICO
5.5 BISMARCK SEA
5.2 BISMARCK SEA
5.1 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

NEW ZEALAND - A string of earthquake jolted parts of New Zealand overnight. These follow the magnitude 7.3 quake that struck near New Zealand's sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands on Sunday night. GNS science recorded five earthquakes yesterday from Mount Cook to Turangi. A magnitude 4.1 quake struck Mount Cook at 5.25pm. It was centred 30km north of the mountain and was 2km deep. Earlier in the afternoon, a quake measuring 4.5 on the richter scale shook the central North Island. The quake at 3.12pm was centred 10km northeast of Turangi and was 5km deep. At 6.20pm a second smaller quake, 2.8 in magnitude, hit 20km north east of Turangi at a depth of 5km. A 3.7 magnitude quake hit 20km south of Porangahau, Waipukurau, at a depth of 25km at 11.05pm. At 11.46pm a magnitude 3.9 quake struck 30km southwest of Takaka at a depth of 5km. Seismologists said aside from the two quakes near Turangi, the earthquakes were not connected, as the epicentres were too far apart. It was likely the second smaller quake in Turangi yesterday was an aftershock to the first magnitude 4.5 quake. New Zealand generally has about four quakes a week on average, so it was more quakes than normal, but they were "purely coincidence" and there was no cause for any alarm.
A leading seismologist thinks more large earthquakes could be on the way for the Eastern Bay. The area has been rocked by the series of jolts recently mainly centred near Matata. While the earthquakes could continue at a low level there is always a chance of a bigger disaster. The swarm could fade away but the latest activity is just a new development in a very long process. The largest earthquake to hit the region lately measured 4.7 on the Richter Scale.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MALAYSIA - Recalling the tsunami that struck several villages in Kuala Muda, three years ago, more than 100 families living in several villages near the beach left home in a hurry Monday morning, October 1, when a group of fishermen saw exceptionally huge waves out at sea. In the incident at 7:30am, a group of fishermen who were at sea had to turn back after seeing huge waves in the middle of the sea which they had never seen before. "What we saw this morning was most exceptional. In the past, we had never turned back before catching fish, but this time we felt something strange was happening at sea, so we turned back to shore immediately." The fishermen's return to shore created panic among villagers and many parents had rushed to pick up their children who were studying at school to seek shelter. The occurrence of the huge waves out at sea resulted in almost all the residents of Kampung Tepi Sungai running away for shelter. But the villagers were greatly relieved when told that the huge waves that had formed about 15 kilometres from the coast had subsided. A tsunami warning was not issued following the occurrence of the huge waves. Three fishermen who were out at sea in the Kuala Muda waters were reported missing after being hit by strong waves within the past three days and two of them were found drowned, while the search for the third victim was still going on.
About 50 endangered sea turtles have washed ashore with logs and debris in Malaysia, possibly due to strong currents after recent earthquakes in Indonesia. Two of the hawksbill turtles, which landed Saturday on muddy Kuala Tunjang beach in the northwestern state of Kedah, were found dead, while four others were injured and being treated. The rest of the turtles have been released into the sea. The logs and bamboo which washed ashore with the turtles were not found in Malaysia, and the plastic water bottles and shampoo containers in the debris had Indonesian labels. "We believe the logs are from Indonesia" and washed over to Kedah by strong currents following recent tremors in Indonesia. Indonesia's Sumatra island, separated from peninsular Malaysia's west coast by the narrow Strait of Malacca, has been rattled by a series of strong earthquakes that killed nearly two dozen people last month. This is the first time hawksbill turtles have been found in Kuala Tunjang, although some had nested in other parts of the state some years ago.

AUSTRALIA - The tsunami warning for Australia's southern island state of Tasmania resulted in little more than a few UNUSUAL swells along its coast. The warning was issued after the strong 7.4 undersea earthquake near New Zealand. The Weather Bureau and emergency services went on alert on Sunday afternoon, when a recently installed deep ocean tsunami detection buoy anchored off New Zealand detected an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the richter scale. A tsunami alert was issued for Tasmania, coastal New South Wales and Victoria. On Tasmania's east coast, tidal surges of up to 20 centimetres were recorded at Spring Bay, and St Helens. There were also reports of UNUSUAL ebbs and flows in the Derwent River. The weather bureau cancelled the tsunami alert on Sunday night, saying there had been no reports of damage.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Residents of Ngancar district are to be evacuated to Wates district following increased activity on Mount Kelud. More than 24,000 people live in the danger zone near Mt. Kelud's crater. The six villages to be evacuated are Sugihwaras, Sempu, Babadan, Ngancar, Manggis and Margourip.

YEMEN - A Canadian Navy spokesman described the volcanic eruption as "catastrophic." The eruption collapsed part of the island of Jabal al-Tair and covered the rest with lava. Six NATO ships searched for hours without success and were eventually told to stop by the Yemeni coast guard. "Just as we were leaving the area, about six miles offshore, we discovered a survivor drifting in the water. The first one went aboard the American ship and then Toronto recovered another survivor." The second survivor found was a 22-year-old private who had been in the water for about 20 hours. Four dead were also pulled from the Red Sea, officials said. Two people remain missing. It remains unclear whether the victims died from the eruption or drowning. The island last saw an explosive eruption in 1883. (photo)

RUSSIA - One of the most active volcanoes at Kamchatka - Shiveluch - threw out ashes on Sunday, the loop of which stretched 20km to the west and to the south-west. In one day over 300 local earthquakes were registered at the volcano. The most powerful of them was accompanied by emission of ashes from the crater to the height up to 4.6km over the sea level, scientists think. A thermal anomaly, the temperature of which was 38.6 degrees above zero on Celsius with ambient temperature minus 18 degrees, was registered on the volcano. Seismic stations register continuous spasmodic volcanic trembling. The last eruption happened in 1964, when the destruction of the lava dome happened and the volcano threw out over 1 cubic kilometer of volcanic material. Processes, happening on the volcano during the last decades, are similar to those which happened from 1854 to 1964 - during the period between the most powerful eruptions. By analogy it is possible to assume that in an interval of 100 years from the last powerful explosion in the crater of the giant, a new one will happen. Specialists who watch the behavior of the giant say that "no less than ten of such explosions happened in 1.5 thousand years."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 17W was 539 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 207 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 306 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ITALY - Long accustomed to sea surges which swell their canals, swamp their piazzas and threaten the foundations of their buildings, Venetians are now looking up to the skies with trepidation as FREAK rainstorms are blamed for bringing chunks of masonry crashing down from landmark palaces. Locals and tourists fled for cover on Saturday as a 30kg (66lb) block of white marble, 40cm wide, dislodged from a window frame at the Ducal palace, close to St Mark's Square, and fell 20 metres (65ft) to the crowded pavement below. The chunk missed passersby although flying shards of marble from the impact left a German tourist bleeding from a leg wound. Days earlier, another tourist destination, the Correr museum in St Mark's Square, lost a large piece of marble from its facade which fell into an internal courtyard. The Ducal palace had been restored just three years ago, but water infiltration due to RECORD RAINFALL may have done the damage. After a long dry summer, heavy rains set in last Wednesday, causing floods that closed the airport and shut down local industry. Old iron rods holding the marble blocks in place at the Ducal palace may have rusted to the point of disintegration in the heavy rain. City officials have already warned of tiny cracks appearing in Venice's palaces thanks to pigeons which peck at facades while searching for food scraps.

INDIA - Bihar recorded their HIGHEST RAINFALL IN 25 YEARS THIS SEASON with 1531 mm so far. Patna also saw a RECORD 74.8 mm rain in two days, 9/28 & 9/29, bringing life to a near standstill.
"More than three million people have been displaced by the flooding in eight districts" in September and 88 people have been killed.
The southwest monsoon will end this year’s season with a surplus of five percent (three percent till last week) on the back of a scorching late-in-the-season run powered by ‘low’ twins to the east and west of the country. This RARE rally saw it dump an UNPRECEDENTED 40 percent area-weighted surplus rain week-on-week with Saurashtra topping the chart with +540 percent in the west and the Gangetic West Bengal +415 percent in the east. Thirty Met subdivisions recorded excess or normal rainfall, with deficits being limited to the rest in north and northwest India. The whole of Uttar Pradesh ended up in the red, with the Met subdivision of west Uttar Pradesh being the hardest hit at -40 percent. All six subdivisions ran the deficit almost throughout the season. The break-down is as follows; Himachal Pradesh (-36 per cent); Punjab (-28 per cent); Haryana (-33 per cent); west Uttar Pradesh (-40 per cent); east Uttar Pradesh (-22 per cent) and east Madhya Pradesh (-32 per cent). Even the latest rally could not make much impression, with the causative monsoon system in east India petering out sooner than expected. This year’s rains have been better than expected after official forecasts in June predicted the country as a whole would receive 93 percent of the normal rainfall. The surplus monsoon would leave good moisture conditions for winter crops which are sown in November. Meanwhile, early indications by international models on weather for the October-November-December quarter suggest that winter rains would be deficient in extreme south Tamil Nadu, but above average in parts of central India and almost the whole of east India. But rainfall for the quarter in north and northwest India brought about by passing western disturbances will range between average and less than average. As for mercury, a cold snap will extend from the whole of Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan to the east over Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal and the North-eastern States. Current weather trends in the northwest indicate that the westerlies fanning across Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan into west Rajasthan are bringing drying, and a slow withdrawal of the monsoon and its rain. According to AccuWeather.com, it would seem that between one third and one half of the subcontinent will be outside of the sway of the monsoon.

NEPAL - At least four people were killed and thousands of others affected by flooding across western Nepal on Sunday.

AFRICA - Thousands in Africa wait for aid amid catastrophic floods - At least 300 have died in the flooding since heavy rains began sweeping across the continent two months ago.
The Red Cross said Friday that it had observed a "worrying" eightfold increase since 2004 in the number of African flood disasters it has to deal with.

GERMANY - Heavy rain in central Germany has caused severe flooding, and more is expected in the coming days. Riverbanks have burst and mudslides cut off nearby towns.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIANS have been warned to brace for catastrophic heatwaves, bushfires, drought and severe water shortages as climate change causes widespread havoc. Rising temperatures, lower rainfall and more searing hot days are predicted in a major report released by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology today. The grim global warming forecast for coming decades further highlights the water crisis gripping the nation and the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The Climate Change in Australia report also warns of: A spike in temperatures nationwide of at least 1C by 2030,and up to 5C by 2070, droughts dragging on for up to 80 percent longer, less spring and winter rainfall - with drops of up to 40 percent in some southern parts of Australia by 2070, fewer frosts and less snow.
Southern Australia is experiencing its HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD. Figures just released from the Bureau of Meteorology show that for the Murray-Darling Basin and southern Australia, 2007 will surpass 2005 as the hottest year ever. The figures show Australia was experiencing less rain, more frequent and hotter periods of drought, sea-levels rising and warmer sea temperatures. "We have seen some extraordinary events ... but they are less extraordinary once we take climate change into account."
Canberra had its DRIEST SEPTEMBER IN 13 YEARS, with less than 15mm of rain - less than a quarter of the historical average rainfall.
The Borders had its DRIEST SEPTEMBER IN 60 YEARS and the fourth lowest monthly rainfall total on record with just 13mm of rain.

Arctic ice island breaks in half - The giant Ayles Ice Island drifting off Canada's northern shores has broken in two - far earlier than expected. Ice islands in the past might have lasted in the Arctic Ocean for 50 years or more. In a season of record summer melting in the region, the two chunks have moved rapidly through the water - one of them covering 98km (61 miles) in a week. Their progress has been tracked amid fears they could edge west towards oil and gas installations off Alaska. The original Manhattan-sized berg (16km by five km; 10 miles by three miles) broke off the Ayles Ice Shelf in 2005. "It's relatively UNUSUAL for the ice island to drift so far south so quickly - many ice islands in the past have stayed within the Arctic Ocean, or within the northern parts of the Queen Elizabeth Islands." The island had travelled so far south because of the small extent of Arctic ice this summer, influenced in turn by warmer conditions. "Ultimately, the ice island should break up faster because of the warmer temperatures - I'd be surprised if it lasted more than a decade or so." The team which landed on the Ayles ice block in May found it to have an average thickness of 42-45m (138-148ft) - the equivalent of the height of a 10-story building. (photos / map)

U.S. - Drought and mild temperatures have pushed Lake Superior's water level to its LOWEST POINT ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, continuing a downward spiral across the Great Lakes. Preliminary data show Superior's average water level in September dipped 1.6 inches beneath the previous low for that month reached in 1926. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which uses a different measuring technique, calculated the September level at 4 inches below the record. It's the FIRST TIME IN 81 YEARS that the biggest and deepest of the lakes has reached a new monthly low. The Army Corps recorded Superior as also setting a RECORD by a half-inch in August. The lake has plummeted over the past year and has dipped beneath its long-term average level for a decade — the LONGEST SUCH PERIOD IN ITS KNOWN HISTORY. Commercial shippers, who haul iron ore and coal across the lakes to manufacturing centers such as Detroit, have been unable to fill cargo holds to capacity for fear of scraping bottom in shallow channels. All the Great Lakes, which together make up about 20 percent of the world's fresh surface water, have been in decline since the late 1990s. Lakes Huron and Michigan are about 2 feet below their long-term average levels, while Lake Superior is about 20 inches off. Lake Ontario is about 7 inches below its long-term average and Lake Erie is a few inches down. Precipitation is well below normal in the Lake Superior watershed, and unusually mild winters have reduced the winter ice cap, boosting evaporation. The region got some badly needed rain in September — up to 5 inches in some places. But with Superior at its all-time low point for the beginning of fall — when the lake usually begins its annual drop-off — prospects for quick improvement wouldn't seem good. Scientists point to a number of possible causes for the low water, including historical cycles, weather patterns and global warming. "Is this going to continue? That's the big question and we don't know."

METEORS -
FINLAND - a light phenomenon seen over much of northern and eastern Finland on Friday night was a meteor - the BRIGHTEST SEEN IN THE COUNTRY IN MORE THAN 30 YEARS. It was a superbolide, a fireball more than 100 times brighter than a full moon. The fireball was apparently caused by a space rock striking the atmosphere over Northern Ostrobothnia and then exploding over Finland. The rock may have weighed some 200 kilogrammes. However it was not clear on Saturday whether any meteorites fell to the ground. The dazzling 'shooting star' spurred worried telephone calls to emergency centres in various parts of Finnish Lapland, as far apart as Kemi, Enontekiö and Ivalo. (photo)

ALASKA - State Troopers are looking into reports of something - possibly a meteorite - seen over Kodiak on Tuesday, September 25 about 6:45 a.m. Whatever it was people saw Tuesday morning, it doesn't appear to have been was an airplane. No emergency beacon went off and no debris has been found. It got so bright, one person thought a helicopter was shining a light on them. There were reports that meteorites were seen over Chiniak around that time. The Coast Guard says an HH-60 Jayhawk helicopter from Air Station Kodiak made both low- and high-level sweeps of the area and found no scarring on the land, impact crater or fire.

Monday, October 1, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
If two men agree on everything, you may be sure that one of them is doing the thinking.
Lyndon B. Johnson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/30/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
7.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 GUAM REGION
6.8 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
7.4 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA

NEW ZEALAND - The west of the South Island of New Zealand was shaken by an earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale, after which a tsunami warning was put in place in New Zealand, Australia and Fiji. Fiji's Mineral Resources Department said that the tremors and earthquakes in the pacific region in the past several weeks are stress releases, which is good. It said having these stress releases are better than a lull over a long period, which sometimes can build stress up to a massive and very destructive quake.

JAPAN - An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.2 has jolted the Japanese town of Hakone, southwest of Tokyo, injuring at least three people. The focus of the quake was about 14 kilometres below sea level, prompting the East Japan Railway Company to suspend some of its operations.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - the quake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale near the uninhabited Auckland Islands, around 500 kilometres south of the New Zealand mainland, caused a slight tsunami which had largely dissipated by the time it reached the Tasmanian coast around 1,500 kilometres away. Authorities in Tasmania say the impact of the 20 centimetre wave was minimal.

PHILIPPINES - Nine houses were destroyed, while nine others were damaged, when strong waves hit a coastal village on Saturday night. The waves also displaced at least 77 families in Barangay (village) 76-A in Bucana District. Houses near the shore were destroyed when strong waves suddenly hit the village at around 7 p.m. Saturday. Three persons were hurt when wooden house materials fell on them.

FLORIDA - Stormy weather took a bite out of local beaches Sunday, leaving residents gawking at damage to Bathtub Reef Beach in Stuart. Winds gusted to about 30 miles per hour in some areas of Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast, causing such serious erosion on Hutchinson Island that visitors lifted yellow police caution tape to scamper up a sand berm for a better look at waves stealing sand from Bathtub Reef Beach. Officials closed Bathtub Reef Beach last week after erosion exposed tree trunks and roots at the popular swimming spot on Hutchinson Island. They also trucked in a dozen loads of sand to build a berm along the parking lot. But the weekend's gusty northeastern winds sent a steady spray up and over the berm and nearby fences. Muddy, grayish-colored water pooled in the parking lot and ran in rivulets to the road below. A lifeguard station at one end of the beach tilted precariously toward the water; steps that weeks before led from the boardwalk down onto the beach dropped off into choppy waves Sunday. Palm Beach County's erosion was most noticeable in areas north of Juno Beach. A resident who has lived at Ocean Trail in Jupiter for almost 30 years said weekend waves were some of the worst she has seen. Lifeguards flew a red flag for extreme waves Sunday, but surfers and strong swimmers still made their way out to the water. The waves washed sea turtle eggs from their nesting site on the beach into the grass over the seawall. Bathtub Reef Beach is susceptible to erosion because of its rocky shoreline and reefs. Large waves and strong winds blowing in just the right direction can devastate the area and the recent erosion is THE WORST IN DECADES. (photos)

VOLCANOES -
YEMEN - A volcanic eruption off the Red Sea coast of Yemen spewed lava hundreds of yards into the air Sunday evening and at least 9 people were missing at sea. The eruption occurred on Jazirt Mount al-Tair, an island about 80 miles (140 km) from Yemen. A Defence Ministry official said the western part of the island had "collapsed" following the eruption. Naval ships were searching the surrounding waters for nine missing Yemeni soldiers who were stationed on the island. Several earthquakes felt on Sunday had triggered the eruption. "Three earthquakes struck the island around 1127 GMT on Sunday, and were ranging between 4.3 and 4 on the Richter scale." A Canadian frigate is conducting a search and rescue operation at the request of the Yemen coast guard. It said it was trying to locate nine people believed to be at sea in the area. Lava was spewing hundreds of yards into the air, with volcanic ash also rising 300 yards. The entire two-mile-long (three-km-long) island was aglow with lava and magma as it poured into the sea. A Yemeni geologist said the volcano had previously erupted in the 19th and 18th centuries, and is regarded as one of the Red Sea's more recent volcanic islands. ( photo )

INDONESIA - Indonesian scientists stepped up the alert level for a volcano in East Java and told people to stay away from the crater amid fears it is building up to an eruption. The alert for Mount Kelut was raised to the third of a four-level warning system on Sunday. It was based on recordings of increased seismic activity as well as rising temperatures in the crater lake and the shifting chemical composition of the water. The alert status had already been raised one step on September 11. Although its slopes are sparsely inhabited, the peak is a popular domestic tourist destination and is located on a densely-populated plain. Between September 26 and 29, 54 vulcanic earthquakes and nine tectonic temblors had been recorded, and signs were that their epicentre was moving closer to the surface. The lake on top of the volcano has also changed from its habitual greenish aspect into milky white, and gas is coming out. The chemical concentrate in the water had risen significantly over the previous months and the temperature of the lake was steadily rising. The volcano last blew in 1990. It has claimed more than 15,000 lives since 1500, including around 10,000 when it erupted in 1568. (photo)

NEW ZEALAND - Seismologists are warning that two earthquakes near Mount Ruapehu on Monday (local time) may be a sign of more things to come. A 4.5 magnitude quake was felt just after 3pm on Monday. It was centred 10 kilometres north-east of Turangi. The quake was 5km deep. Then at 6:20pm there was another small quake, measuring 2.8 on the Richter scale. It could be an indicator that we haven't seen the last eruption from Mount Ruapehu. Mount Ruapehu is showing signs of unrest, that in itself means it is important to be cautious about it.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 297 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 313 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression MELISSA was 1390 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

Tropical depression Hanna (international codename Tropical Storm Lekima) killed nine people and left another missing in the Philippines after unleashing landslides, floods and big waves.
MALAYSIA - Rooftops were blown off and trees uprooted when the tail of tropical storm Lekima hit the western coast of Sabah on the island of Borneo late on Saturday. Police and firemen said that all incidents reported were minor and mainly involved roads being blocked by fallen trees in villages but could not give an estimate of the losses. The storm was associated with Tropical Storm Lekima which is blowing through the South China Sea and heading towards Vietnam.

Floodwaters from hurricane Lorenzo were receding Saturday after rains caused mudslides and floods that killed at least five people and drove tens of thousands from their homes in eastern Mexico. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm, Melissa, formed in the eastern Atlantic. It had winds of 3, but posed no immediate threat to land. (Melissa has already diminished to a depression.) In the eastern Pacific, a tropical depression was upgraded to tropical storm Juliette but remained nearly 805 kilometres off the coast of central Mexico on Saturday afternoon. Rivers in Mexico that had swollen 6.4 metres above usual levels began to recede on Saturday, but officials said it might take weeks for all flooding to subside. Lorenzo hit Mexico's Gulf coast on Friday and quickly faded into a potent rainstorm as it moved over the lush, ravine-cut mountains of east-central Mexico, dumping more than 33 centimetres of rain in some areas in less than a day. In hard-hit parts of Veracruz state, streets remained flooded by weather that ripped roofs off some 2,000 homes and swept cars away. In Alamo, a burst pipeline released oil into the Buenavista River and damaging nearby pastures. At least two children were sickened by the fumes. Residents in the oil city of Poza Rica fled their homes as the water rose. In Mexico's Puebla state, a hillside gave way in the village of Ixtaczoquitla, burying a 26-year-old woman and two girls, ages 3 and 5, who appeared to be her daughters. A nine-year-old girl died in the village of Rancho Nuevo and a 19-year-old man was missing, washed away by a flooded river. Landslides or flooding severed about a dozen roads. In neighbouring Veracruz state, an 83-year-old man died after falling into a hole in drenched soil near his home. Hundreds of homes had been flooded, 2,000 roofs blown off and 30,000 people forced from their homes in Veracruz state. Thousands also were evacuated in Puebla state.

FLORIDA - while Floridians bask in their second hurricane-free year in a row, meteorologists warn that the threat from the tropics may be about to ramp up. October typically brings a shift in the tropics' steering winds, pushing hurricanes into Florida from the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean instead of the Atlantic. The western Caribbean still is loaded with the deep, abundant warm water that fueled Hurricanes Dean and Felix to Category 5 strength in August. The expected return of the La Niña global climate pattern, which encourages Atlantic hurricane formation, could keep the season humming well into November. "One or two more major hurricanes is very possible. I would think we'd have a high chance of a hurricane coming out of the Caribbean and possibly threatening Florida." Officially, the Atlantic basin's hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity hitting in mid-September. "October is the biggest threat for the state of Florida - more than August, more than September." The 13 named storms that have already formed this year, including four hurricanes, are more than the long-term average of 10 storms a season. This season "is going to be ranking as one of the most historic. What we've been warning our clients is that the waters have been phenomenally warm in the Gulf of Mexico and other regions nearby. We kind of use the phrase 'We expect to be surprised.' ... That should be the expected thing, for storms to explode." Water warmer than 80 degrees is potent fuel for hurricanes, and it's more than 100 feet deep in the western Caribbean. That means passing hurricanes keep stirring up warm water, not the cold, discouraging water they might churn up elsewhere in the Atlantic.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Heavy rainfall in late September caused severe flooding in Brazil's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul.

LIBERIA - Floods in Nimba have worsened during a second week of heavy downpour, leading to the St. John River on the border with Guinea and the Cestos River along the Ivory Coast border bursting their banks, forcing the two borders to close down. (photo)

OREGON - A tornado hit just north of the Linn County town of Lebanon early Saturday night. Weather officials say the tornado began as a funnel cloud, and touched down briefly in Lebanon, damaging several barns and roofs, and uprooting several trees. The funnel cloud was active for about a half hour, but the tornado was categorized as an F-zero. That's the weakest classification. Tornados are a RARE event in Oregon and form when vertical wind speed changes.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - Sabanero Inc. is recalling FOR FRYING and GRATING Cheese 5.5 pounds loafs made by COOPERATIVA COLANTA in their San Pedro Plant in Colombia South America. This recall was initiated because the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services revealed a potential for the presence of Staphylococcus aureus.

Sunday, September 30, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Many receive advice, few profit by it.
Publilius Syrus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

So far today there have been several large quakes -
6.8 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
7.4 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.8 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
7.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
Two high-magnitude earthquakes have hit different parts of the Pacific Ocean. A 7.3 magnitude quake struck at 0525 GMT south of New Zealand's South Island, with no reports of injuries. Earlier, the US territory of Guam was shaken by a 7.1 tremor. Its epicentre, some 30km (19 miles) deep, was in the southern part of the Mariana Islands. Islanders in high-rise buildings felt the quake but reported no damage. (map)

[On Thursday, there were three articles on this webpage about activity in New Zealand: A massive landslide in the Southern Alps - thought to be THE BIGGEST IN DECADES- occurred on Monday; Mount Ruapehu erupted with no warning on Tuesday; and there was increased earthquake activity near the Bay of Plenty town of Matata - seven shallow tremors this week measuring 3 or greater on the Richter scale, including six in a space of just nine hours on Wednesday (more quakes in the swarm occurred on Friday and Sunday, before the 7.4 quake.) As usual, scientists say none of this activity is related.]

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/29/07 -
5.7 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.6 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.7 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.6 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
9/28/07 -
7.4 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.9 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.8 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.5 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.5 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS


TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
FLORIDA - High winds were expected today and warnings were out about possible flooding on the east coast of Central Florida. Forecasters are expecting high winds and massive waves anywhere from 8 to 10 feet high. The high waves could mean more beach erosion is on the way. Beach patrol said they have concerns for next weekend. They said the high wave action this weekend might change the makeup of the sand underneath the water and could create dangerous rip currents for the following week.

PHILIPPINES - 1 died, 3 survived as waves hit boat in Manila Bay - A fisherman died, while three others survived after huge waves struck their boat sailing near the Manila International Container Terminal Port on Saturday afternoon. The four fishermen were about to sail from Manila Bay when big waves hit their boat.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea volcano continues to spew lava - An open lava channel is feeding a flow that has merged with another, and both are advancing along the southern edge of previous flows, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said Friday. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey's observatory are monitoring the ongoing dramatic change in the 24-year eruption of Kilauea.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm LEKIMA was 329 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JULIETTE was 304 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression MELISSA was 1390 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

Hurricane Lorenzo crashed into Mexico's Gulf coast Friday, killing three people in a mudslide and knocking out power to 85,000 homes.

Tropical storm Hanna (Lekima) was poised to hit the northern Philippines Saturday, bringing heavy rain and raising fears of mudslides. Packing maximum wind speeds of 80 kilometres (50 miles) per hour, Hanna was expected to cross the northern half of Luzon and move west of the island by this morning. Heavy rain has fallen over much of Luzon including Manila since Friday. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties but civil defence offices have warned the public to beware of flash floods. Residents on mountainslopes were also warned to beware of mudslides triggered by the rain. An estimated 1,316 people were left dead or missing after typhoon Durian in November, spawning deadly mudslides around Mayon volcano, southeast of Manila. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne has recorded its DRIEST SEPTEMBER FOR 26 YEARS. The city received just 19mm of rain in September, significantly down on the long-term norm of 59mm for the month. This made it the driest September since 1981. September was dry month across Victoria, with Tatura, in the state's north, receiving just 6mm, making it the DRIEST SEPTEMBER IN 65 YEARS of records. Sale, in Victoria's southeast, recorded just 14mm, its LOWEST SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TOTAL IN 64 YEARS of records. "At this time of year, most of Victoria's rainfall comes from the passage of cold fronts. While these fronts have been moving across the state on a regular basis this year, they have not been linking up with moisture from the north, so we haven't been seeing any substantial rain bands." Apart from far eastern Victoria, the rest of the state had warmer than normal days during September. Melbourne's average maximum of 19C was above the long-term norm of 17. In contrast, nights were generally cooler than usual, with the most notable exception being Melbourne. "The pattern of cooler than normal nights and warmer-than-normal days is consistent with how dry it was across the state during September. Clearer skies allow days to heat up more, but then that heat escapes more easily at night."

HEALTH THREATS -
HAMBURGER RECALL - The Topps Meat Company on Saturday vastly expanded its recall of frozen hamburger patties that may be contaminated with E. coli, after federal inspectors discovered inadequate safety measures at its plant.

Friday, September 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Wisdom doesn't automatically come with old age. Nothing does - except wrinkles.
It's true, some wines improve with age. But only if the grapes were good in the first place.
Abigail Van Buren

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Quakes this morning -
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/27/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

NEW CALDONIA - Loyalty Islands - At least 15 moderate-to-strong earthquakes have struck near the French islands of New Caledonia in the South Pacific. The earthquakes, ranging from magnitude 5.0 to 6.6, struck around midday local time (1100 AEST) about 150 kilometres east of New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The largest of the quakes had the potential to generate a local tsunami along the sparsely populated atolls within 100 kilometres of the epicentre. New Caledonia is a collection of small islands with a population of about 221,000 people located some 1,800 kilometres north-east of Australia.

PHILIPPINES - An intensity 5 quake rocked Butuan City in Agusan del Norte shortly before midnight at 11:35 p.m. Thursday. State seismologists said the quake was powerful enough to cause damage. The epicenter traced 32 kms northwest of Butuan. While Phivolcs expected damage in some of the areas hit by the quake, it expects no aftershocks to take place. The incident took place 12 hours after a milder 3.9 quake hit Butuan City at 11:45 a.m. Thursday. At the time, Phivolcs expected no aftershock. In yet another incident, a magnitude-4 quake jolted Bohol province in Eastern Visayas at 1:36 p.m. Thursday. A milder quake measuring magnitude 2.9 in the Richter scale rocked Kidapawan City in Mindanao Thursday night, but state seismologists said they expect no casualty or damage to property. The quake was recorded at 6:34 p.m.

INDONESIA - The powerful quake that rocked Sumatra on September 12 caused millions of dollars in losses. Despite the intensity of the quake (8.4 degrees on the Richter scale), damage to the country's economy was relatively small. However, it left 25 dead, over one hundred injured and caused partial or total collapse of about 86,000 buildings. Worst-hit regions included Bengkulu and Western Sumatra.

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - Mount St. Helens just won't quit. Three years ago this month, hundreds of small earthquakes heralded the renewal of volcanic activity at the Cascade peak after an 18-year lull. Since then, the volcano has been a perpetual-motion machine. "It's been an amazing run. I never thought this eruption would last this long. And although things have slowed, there's no signs of it stopping any time soon...Mount St. Helens woke up in a hurry three years ago, which shows that we have to be prepared for what these volcanoes can do. You want to be ahead of the game by being able to detect even small changes." Tens of earthquakes are occurring daily compared with hundreds a year ago. The volcano's slowdown has allowed volcano scientists to give more attention to Mount Rainier, which is considered the Cascades' most dangerous volcano because it poses a threat to a large population.

NEW ZEALAND - Thousands of people have thrown caution to the wind and are enjoying a fine day of skiing on Mt Ruapehu despite the unexpected volcanic eruption just two days ago. The public has been warned to steer clear of the crater, but people were still hiking close to the rim and examining the lahars that were created after the eruption. "With it being the school holidays it's been quite fascinating for the young ones."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm KAREN was 597 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane LORENZO was 132 nmi SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical storm Lorenzo quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it barrelled toward Mexico's Gulf Coast Thursday night, forcing evacuations and the closure of ports and schools in low-lying coastal areas. The state of Veracruz is particularly susceptible to disasters, with many villages dotting its mountain ranges and riversides. The state suffered widespread flooding when Hurricane Dean hit in August, and in 1999, a rainstorm caused floods that killed at least 350 people. The hurricane is forecast to strengthen further before hitting land early today near the small port of Tuxpan, but then begin rapidly weakening. The storm is expected to bring "dangerous and battering waves," plus storm-surge flooding of one metre. It could dump up to 25 centimetres of rain on Veracruz, with some areas receiving 40 centimetres.

Northern Australia is due for a rise in the frequency of cyclones and climate change will only strengthen their ferocity, research suggests. From the study of the "fingerprints" left on the landscape by major cyclones over the past 6,000 years, research has determined that the northern parts of the country are due for an increase in cyclonic activity. Queensland is coming to the end of a 150-year phase of subdued cyclone activity, as well as a shorter term, 30-year quiet period. "Things look like naturally they are on an upswing. So in terms of natural variability we can expect to see much more intense cyclones and more frequent intense cyclones impacting Queensland...We've been basing our predictions of global climate change on what recent trends have been, and we know things are going to get worse. But the reality is recent trends are a very poor representation of what the longer term natural variability is, so in reality it is going to be worse, possibly, than we had otherwise thought."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - Thousands of households in the Mekong River Delta risk being swept away in landslides during this flood season as a result of local farmers digging too many fish ponds along river banks. An Giang has been one of the hardest hit provinces in the region with 42 areas affected. Tens of kilometres of river banks have collapsed. In Tan Chau District, about one hectare of land along Hau River was struck by landslides. The landslides have stretched 20 metres inland, forcing local authorities to quickly evacuate tens of households from affected areas. In several river sections in Cho Moi District, An Giang Province, landslides following torrential rains in the last few days have threatened human lives and property. Local weather officials predict that rising floodwater in the coming days may cause sudden landslides. In Dong Thap Province, landslides affected 162km of riverbanks. Local officials plan to evacuate 800 of the 4,200 households from these areas.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

The U.S. Government has dramatically changed its position on climate change, warning that the planet will be destroyed unless economic growth is reined in. “If we stay on our present path, we face an unacceptable choice: either we sacrifice global economic growth to secure the health of our planet or we sacrifice the health of our planet to continue with fossil-fuelled growth.”

Thursday, September 27, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What's right about America is that although we have a mess of problems, we have great capacity - intellect and resources - to do some thing about them.
Henry Ford II

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/26/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
6.8 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
6.0 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR

INDONESIA - Since the September 12th quake in Padang, GPS reports indicate ground movements towards the Southwest and both losses and gains in altitude for the central coast of Pagai Selatan. "Coral reefs have risen in that area by about one metre." Macaroni's surf break is reported shallower than before the September quake, indicating an up-lift of the reef. Five surfers have been wounded there since September 15. Also, the lighthouse of Pulau Singingi is confirmed down. Three months is the estimated time needed to "resettle" the displaced populations, in their villages or up in the hills (whole villages on Pagai Selatan have decided to move their permanent habitat to safer locations - upwards). (map)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - A large earthquake and small tsunami struck the New Ireland region of Papua New Guinea. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre says the shallow quake, with an magnitude of 6.9 on the Richter scale, posed no destructive widespread tsunami threat, but caused a sea level rise of up to half-a-metre on some PNG coastlines. The region is largely unpopulated.

NEW ZEALAND - While much of the media focus is on the latest eruption at Mount Ruapehu, there has also been increased earthquake activity near the Bay of Plenty town of Matata. There have been seven shallow tremors this week measuring 3 or greater on the Richter scale, including six in a space of just nine hours. The strongest measured 4.3 on the Richter scale, and happened shortly before 9am on Wednesday morning. It was also felt as far away as Tauranga. The Matata area has been subject to earthquake swarms for the past two years.

CALIFORNIA - number of quakes climbing again - 595 in 7 days. Over 100 of these were near The Geysers in northern California.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - Questions have been raised over how the eruption managed to evade the warning sirens around Mount Ruapehu. The eruption, which occurred at 8:23 on Tuesday night, blasted a stream of rock and ash out of the mountain, sending two lahars down the mountainside. One man was injured in the eruption and he lost part of his right leg after becoming trapped underneath a boulder. Authorities say the sirens installed on Whakapapa did not sound because at magnitude 2.8 the eruption's accompanying earthquake was not big enough to trigger them. Volcanologists have predicted there could be more explosions at Mount Ruapehu over the next five days and people are being warned not to go the upper levels of the mountain during this time. (photo)
On the edge of Ruapehu's crater, two men were in the Dome Shelter, 700m from the crater, when the eruption occurred. They were asleep in the hut, and they woke to the sound of rushing water and rocks coming through the door. The two men heard the eruption as a "massive boom". The door of the hut was blown from its hinges and mud and rock poured inside. A huge rock smashed into one man, crushing his leg. Conditions were freezing and everything in the hut was wet. "He has recovered from the worst degree of metabolic derangement that I have ever seen. His body had pretty much shut down and he was so close to death ... literally seconds from death." His body temperature was 25C to 26C and he was very close to cardiac arrest. "For the majority of the night he was a hair breadth away from dying...If there'd been any delays in any stage of the process, he would have been dead." (photo of the Dome Shelter almost completely submerged by mud and debris from the eruption.)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 13 was 159 nmi NNW of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAREN was 719 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical depression 13 could become a tropical storm at any time. The slow-moving system will probably produce torrential rains primarily over the Mexican state of Veracruz.

Karen - last night and this morning the wind profile of Karen indicated an UNUSUAL horizontal wind profile. The official forecast calls for gradual weakening but maintaining tropical storm strength. Forecasting models differ as to the eventual path and level of tropical storm strength.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW ZEALAND - A massive landslide in the Southern Alps, thought to be THE BIGGEST IN DECADES, has created a 2km-long lake. The landslide came down near Mount Aspiring on Monday and was spotted by a helicopter pilot. The dam created by the slip is thought to be up to 70 metres high and has stopped the flow of water in the north branch of the Young River. Scientists say there is no chance the dam created by the slip will burst, but sightseers are being warned to stay away until the water begins flowing over the top, and the rocks can stabilise. There has been heavy rain in the area recently and an earthquake, though it is not known what caused the slip. A field ranger says it is the biggest slip he has ever seen.
This is the second major landslide this year in Mt Aspiring National Park. The slip started at an altitude of 1500m on Haunted Spur and hundreds of thousands of tonnes of rock plunged 900m to the valley floor, creating a dam 70m high. The dam is made up of massive rocks. In January, near Lake Wakatipu on the other side of Mt Aspiring National Park, another massive landslide about 150m wide and 150m long sent at least half a million cubic metres of rock and debris crashing into the John Inglis valley floor. It buried an alpine lake and blocked a tributary of the Joe River. A geologist said at the time that climate change was probably a major factor with a lot of glacier melt in the area making many of the mountain slopes in the area unstable.

INDIA - The Bay of Bengal is warming again, with a new cyclonic circulation expected to spring up around September 30 when, normally, the withdrawal schedule of the southwest monsoon would be complete. Early indications are that monsoon might start withdrawing from parts of extreme west Rajasthan after Tuesday’s ‘low’ over east India weakened gradually and the trough in the mid-and-upper level westerlies pulled itself out of reckoning. But the anti-cyclone would now have to contend with a fresh bout of wet weather over the southeast coast (Andhra Pradesh-Orissa) resulting from the brewing cyclonic circulation. Worse, a few weather models suggest that the circulation could descend to suitable levels to set up yet another ‘low.’ The anti-cyclone normally brings clear weather and cloudless skies and marks the transition from monsoon to autumn and progressively winter in north and northwest India. Western disturbances then become increasingly frequent and herald winter rains in the region.

THAILAND - Some areas of Phuket and Phangnga were flooded yesterday following torrential rain on Tuesday. Low-lying areas in tambon Rawai in Phuket's Muang district were under 50 to 80cm of water and about 10 houses were inundated. In nearby Phangnga, mountain run-off flooded 25 houses and cut off roads and bridges in Khura Buri district. Several sections of a road through Kao Sok mountain were made impassable by landslides. In Bangkok, City Hall said it expected high sea tides to push the level of the Chao Phraya river up to 1.75m above the mean sea level around 6.30pm yesterday. People living along the river, and along Bangkok Noi and Mahasawat canals outside the city's dykes, were told to take precautions. The Meteorological Department forecast that tropical depression Francisco, though weakened, would cause another day of heavy rain in the North and the upper Northeast. The moderate southwesterly monsoon is expected to bring heavy rain across the South and waves about two metres high in the Andaman Sea.

NEVADA - The BIGGEST ONE-DAY DELUGE to hit Pahrump in years caused washouts in numerous locations. "I don't recall ever having that much in a 24-hour period." A few streets still closed this week from sinkholes and road collapses. The heavy rain made a dent in the drought. Until Friday, Pahrump had only experienced 0.45 inches of precipitation this year. The last measurable rain had been 0.13 inch on Aug. 27. The official total on Friday was 2.7 inches. That brings the yearly rainfall total to 3.15 inches, almost up to the 3.64-inch average annual rainfall for Pahrump through Sept. 30.

NIGER - Torrential rains and menacingly high waters in Niger have displaced landmines, sparking fears of explosions as the risk of hitting one is increased. Nearly 50,000 people have been affected by the flooding in Niger, one of the driest countries in Africa, with no end in sight to the pounding rains throughout East, West and Central Africa.

UNUSUAL ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -
Homing crocodiles defy relocation - Three homesick crocodiles in Australia have shocked experts by returning hundreds of kilometres (400km = approximately 250 miles) back to their homes after being relocated. The discovery was made after tracking devices were attached to the reptiles. Saltwater crocodiles caught near popular Australian beaches and rivers are often shipped to more remote areas. But the policy of relocating rogue crocodiles will now be questioned - since it seems the animals have a well-developed homing instinct. Researchers said the results of their study were "staggering". "We often thought crocodiles tired very quickly but here we show very clearly that they are capable of moving long distances for days on end." It is unclear, though, what enables the reptiles to navigate so skilfully. "Crocodiles are more closely related to birds than they are any other reptile so they are possibly using navigation systems similar to birds."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

BAHAMAS - Has nature gone wild? We may blame global warming or some other aberration of nature, yet there is no logical explanation why a guinep tree would bear deliciously sweet fruit in January and again in July and August. Yet this is precisely what a guinep tree in Nassau Village has achieved. The harvest has been so bountiful on both occasions that the branches of this mysterious tree almost reach to the ground much to the delight of small children ordinarily too small to reach the popular fruit. And what's more, even the neighborhood dogs have been seen munching on the fruit! This is certainly an UNUSUAL occurrence - of a guinep tree bearing fruit in winter followed by another harvest in the summer months.

MAINE - The temperature reached 90 degrees in Portland and 91 degrees in Sanford, a RECORD for Sept. 26. The previous record of 84 degrees was set on Sept. 26, 1961.

CANADA - Researchers from a Quebec university suggested Wednesday that global warming has caused changes in Canada's most northerly lake. Aquatic life in Ward Hunt Lake — located on a small island north of Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic — has gone through substantial changes in the past two centuries. "The speed and range of these transformations — UNPRECEDENTED in the lake’s last 8,000 years — suggest that climate change related to human activity could be at the source of this phenomenon." The research suggests the lake was permanently frozen in the past, but changes in the aquatic life "indicate that current conditions make the lake a more favourable location for algae growth than it was in the past.
In Nova Scotia, Wednesday had RECORD-BREAKING temperatures for September. The high at Halifax Stanfield International Airport at 1 p.m. was 28.2 degrees. It peaked at 30.5 Wednesday. Previously, the hottest Sept. 26 on record in metro was 23 in 2003. The provincial record for Sept. 26 was 28.9 in Sydney in 1934. Temperatures at this time of year should be in the high teens. An UNUSUALLY warm airflow from the southwest came up from southern Ontario and heated much of the province.

AUSTRALIA - A climate change report has painted an alarming picture of the effect on Australia if global temperatures increase by more than an average three degrees Celsius. Under that scenario, heat-related deaths would triple, people would be displaced en masse from the coast and national icons like the Great Barrier Reef would almost certainly be lost. The frequency of bushfires would double and there would be major extinctions of animal and plant life. “If warming reaches three to four degrees Celsius then the thresholds for irreversible change will almost certainly be crossed.” “We can't afford to pretend anymore."
Drought making bacon and eggs a luxury - Bacon and egg fry-ups are set to become more expensive, restaurant meals could follow, and there are dire predictions the drought could empty supermarket shelves. The cost of producing most staple foods has risen sharply due to higher grain prices and the increase will have to be passed on to consumers. Grain prices have risen 70% over the past few weeks. The price rise means the cost of producing a dozen eggs has increased by up to 50 cents - or more than 20 percent - over the past three months. "Australian egg farmers have never seen grain prices reach these levels for such a sustained period." The price of fruit and vegetables has risen by 30 percent. Falling production and soaring prices could cause a global food shock.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - "Queso Cincho de Guerrero" produced by "Quesos Sabrosos Mexicanos" because it has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella. Queso Cincho de Guerrero was distributed in Indiana, Michigan, Georgia, Texas, and Illinois in retail stores. The dry hard Mexican cheese comes in wheels of 35# to 40#, and is labeled as "Quesos Sabrosos Mexicanos".
-RECALL WIDENED - Quong Hop & Co. of South San Francisco, California is expanding their recall of tofu because it has the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

BLUETONGUE VIRUS - Over the weekend the mysterious bluetongue virus simultaneously appeared in parts of England and Southeastern Montana. On Sunday, the BBC reported the first case of bluetongue, also called catarrhal fever, which most likely traveled from Europe in a swarm of infected midges. The small gnat-like insects can travel up to 124 miles a day, and just one midge bite is enough to infect an animal. Meanwhile, bluetongue has been confirmed in eight flocks in six Montana counties this month. A quarantine is now in effect for sixteen eastern Montana counties, which will prevent ranchers from transporting animals at a time when lambs are usually shipped to feedlots. While news of recent e-coli contamination in lettuce (similar to last year’s spinach scare) dominates food news, the seasonal appearance of bluetongue in the United States and the new emergence of the disease in the United Kingdom, mark the increasing pressures and concerns that farmers and ranchers face around the world. Unlike e-coli, bluetongue will not infect humans who come in contact with the disease or consume it. Bluetongue occurs most often in sheep, but also affects cattle, goats, buffalo, deer and antelope. The disease causes ulcers in the mouth and nose, and breaks down capillary walls, causing an animal to internally bleed to death. Just this month bluetongue infected animals in Britain for the first time. For 25 years, the presence of bluetongue in the United States has blocked export of cattle, sheep and goats to markets in Australia, New Zealand, and the European Union. On September 13th, Montana’s Fish Wildlife & Parks Department released an alert that the virus had been seen in big game populations in southeastern Montana.

A Japanese dairy company has produced a super-premium milk for stressed-out adults - at the price of $US43 ($49) for less than a litre. The price of a bottle is nearly 30 times as expensive as ordinary milk. The milk is taken from cows once a week at the break of dawn as they discharge a lot of a stress-relieving hormone called melatonin during the night. It is said to contain three to four times as much melatonin as usual milk.

A cholera outbreak in Iraq is spreading, with new cases confirmed in Baghdad, Basra and, for the first time, three northern districts.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Old age is not so bad when you consider the alternatives.
Maurice Chevalier

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/25/07 -
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - Mount Ruapehu, famed as a key location in the Lord of the Rings film trilogy, has erupted, spewing out ash and rock that injured one climber. Last night's 10-minute eruption threw boulders up to two metres in diameter up to 2km from the crater. Ski lodges were evacuated and highways briefly shut down when the volcano erupted unexpectedly. The eruption, which sent a cloud of ash and dust to a height of 4.5km, could signal further volcanic activity or it could be a one off event. In March a mudflow, or "lahar", flowed down the side of the mountain after the crater lake overflowed. Yesterday's eruption caused two mudflows down the eastern and northern slopes of the mountain, which quickly petered out in thick snow. Boulders thrown by the eruption crashed through the roof of a hut where four climbers were staying near the summit. One climber suffered leg injuries and was taken down the mountain to hospital. Doctors are fighting today to save the injured climber's legs.
There was no lava in the eruption but the top of the mountain was blackened by mud and ash thrown out of the crater. The level of the crater lake had not changed with the eruption and a scientist did not think there was any greater risk of a breach occurring in the crater rim. However, he did predict more murmurs from the mountain before it settled down again. "Typically you'll have two or three smaller events over the next few days if this plays out like 1975." Volcanologists were not "totally surprised" by the eruption, as the crater lake had been cooling down over the past few months.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 13 was 142 nmi ESE of Tampico, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAREN was 1098 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical Depression 13 formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. At 5 p.m., the center of the storm was located about 190 Miles east of Tampico, Mexico. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph. Little overall motion is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected in the next 24 hours, and the system could become Tropical Storm Lorenzo today.

CHINESE LINK TYPHOON WIPHA TO CLIMATE CHANGE - There have been 13 typhoons. Looking at the entire year, on the whole the number of typhoons is relatively low. But...these typhoons have been very active. To look at the influential typhoons, there have been four that have affected our country, either by passing through Japan or by touching down in our country. It should be said, going into September, that overall typhoon intensity has been extraordinarily strong....From June of this year until now, overall [atmospheric] circulation has in fact been ABNORMAL. For example, this year the Huai River rose to cataclysmic levels not seen since 1954. When that was over, on the upper reaches of the Yangtze, Chongqing, which last year experienced drought, saw the biggest floods in years...Overall, this year's weather has been EXTRAORDINARILY ABNORMAL.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - Tornadoes have caused widespread damage to homes and businesses across the UK as the country experienced a spate of freak weather. They struck Hampshire, Bedfordshire, East Riding of Yorkshire, Northamptonshire and Warwickshire.
BRITAIN - Monday, as firemen picked their way through wreckage caused by a tornado for a third year in a row, it was time to ask experts in extreme weather whether Britain is now experiencing an annual "tornado season". The towering vortex of air ripped roofs off homes and factories and was one of at least five tornadoes which hit the UK Monday. The twisters struck less than a year after a 100mph tornado in London reduced houses in Kensal Rise to rubble. The previous autumn, two whirlwinds in Birmingham destroyed hundreds of homes, hospitalised 39 people and caused millions of pounds worth of damage. Reports suggested that as many as 11 twisters formed separately as a cold front moved north-east across England. Residents reported hearing "horrendous" noises as violent winds tore down trees, pulled off roofs, knocked off chimney pots and, in one case, overturned a caravan. "It's nothing uncommon now to hear of a tornado damaging a roof, whereas 20 years ago it was a very rare event indeed."

THAILAND - Several of Thailand's lower northern provinces have been hit by floods, swamping hundreds of homes and prompting local schools to close. The new floods are quite severe, and spreading. Hundreds of homes have been invaded by the floodwaters and about 100 fishponds and orchards have been damaged. Meanwhile, the water level of the Wang Thong River has risen with no sign of stopping, inundating many households.

INDIA - Barely 15 hours after a tornado struck Bagnan, Minakha, Parganas experienced a cyclone early Monday morning. The cyclone blew away the roofs of more than 25 huts in the thickly populated area of Bamanpukur and a few residents sustained minor injuries. Several trees and electric poles were uprooted. The embankment of the Bidyadhari river at Minakha was also destroyed.

AFRICA - Fresh rainfalls and slow relief have deepened the humanitarian crisis caused by RECORD FLOODS in Africa which have affected more than 1.5 million people and killed at least 300. The worst floods in three decades have now affected 22 countries, displacing hundreds of thousands and starkly raising the risk of epidemics. The worst-hit country, since unprecedented downpours swept across the continent in August, has been conflict-wracked Sudan, where the United Nations said up to 625,000 people could be in need of emergency aid. Sudan, Africa's largest country, has been hit by several waves of torrential rainfalls in different regions and the floods have worsened a cholera outbreak that has already caused 68 deaths.
SUDAN - Half a million people have been hit by devastating floods in Sudan which have washed away homes, drowned thousands of cattle and marooned villages. With no end in sight, a new wave of flooding has upped the number of those affected by 100,000, and is set to increase. More than 113 people have been killed in Sudan since July because of the surging waters.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - The bushfire season in south and eastern Australia will become longer and more extreme because of climate change, a new report says. It says a new rating system may also be needed to describe the fire risk at the highest level, with days of "catastrophic" danger expected more often. The number of days of extreme fire danger experienced each year in south and eastern Australia could increase by 65 per cent by 2020, and by 300 per cent by 2050. Two unofficial fire danger levels - "very extreme" and "catastrophic" - like that experienced during the tragic 2003 Canberra fires, are becoming more common. With high global warming, very extreme days might occur twice as often in Australia by 2020, with a four or five-fold increase predicted across much of southern and eastern Australia by 2050. Catastrophic risk levels, currently very rare, might occur across nearly all parts of south-east Australia by 2050.

AUSTRALIA - A former deputy prime minister has warned of a potential global food shock due to falling production and soaring prices. "This comes at a time of UNPRECEDENTED concerns globally of very low grain stocks. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that we will see a food shock in the next few years. We talk about oil shocks. We have gone on assuming that the supermarket shelves will always be loaded."

Tuesday, September 25, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
America is a vast conspiracy to make you happy.
John Updike

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/24/07 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 FLORES SEA
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 CENTRAL PERU

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MOZAMBIQUE - On September 12, the Mozambican government issued a tsunami alert and ordered people living on or near the Indian Ocean coast to abandon their homes. More than 2,000 people fled Mozambique Island after "confusing information" was issued by the local media on the impeding tsunami. The national disaster management said that while an alert was issued by the organisation, misleading information by the local media resulted in the residents of the island panicking and leaving the island en masse. More that two million people live along Mozambique's coast, which stretches for more than 2 000 kilometres, while hundreds others lives on Mozambican islands.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Far from the public eye, lava from Kilauea Volcano continues its creep toward civilization. The eruption that began July 21 is supplying lava to a channel now almost a mile long on the northeast flank of the volcano. Scientists are watching for the flows to turn to smoother and faster-moving pahoehoe, which could signal a more imminent hazard to communities in the Puna district. The flows, now in the Wao Kele o Puna rain forest, are heading downhill in the general direction of Kaohe Homesteads, Leilani Estates and Highway 130 but are at least seven miles away. The observatory's summary for hazards warns that although there are no immediate threats, "vent areas and lava channels are hazardous and conditions can change rapidly." (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FRANCISCO was 142 nmi SE of Hanoi, Vietnam.
Tropical storm KAREN was 1234 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical storm Francisco, the 14th such storm to hit China this year, made landfall in south China's Hainan Province shortly after midday on Monday, causing a fishing boat with eight people on board to capsize. The tropical storm, packing up winds of 72 km per hour and bringing torrential rains, landed at Changfa Township in Wenchang County at 12:30 pm. Whirling at a speed of 15 to 20 km per hour northwestward, Francisco was expected to reach the northern part of the Beibu Gulf, south of Guangxi, on Monday night.

A tropical cyclone could form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Three out of four weather models predict the system will steer clear of the U.S. oil and gas facilities in the northern Gulf and make landfall in central Mexico in a few days. The other model, however, shows the storm will make landfall near the Texas-Mexico border.


NEW ZEALAND - It is shaping up to be a good cyclone season in the South Pacific, with experts in New Zealand predicting fewer storms in parts of the region. The season runs from November to May but conditions favor a calmer season ahead. The Pacific wide El Nino-La Nina index is favouring weaker La Nina conditions while the tropical seas surface temperatures - crucial to developing cyclones - are below average. There is an 80 percent chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500 kilometres of New Zealand sometime between November and May, with the highest risk districts being Northland and Gisborne. On average six or seven tropical cyclones can be expected over the entire Southwest Pacific region during a weak La Nina season. This compares with an average of nine or ten over all seasons. "There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of December, which is normal in both neutral and La Nina seasons."

INDIA - the Meteorological Department late on Sunday evening traced a full-fledged ‘low’ over the northeast Arabian Sea, which became well-marked overnight. Along with the depression to the east of the country, it will spearhead the fresh monsoon rally into the farming heartland even as international weather models suggested its intensification, at the expense of the depression, into a possible cyclone. According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, the low-level circulation centre around which the system builds (lying 240 km west of Mumbai) is attracting convective bands to converge. The strong south westerlies to the south of the disturbance could further enhance the low-level development. Other factors that aid the denouement is the low vertical wind shear, an anti-cyclonic circulation overhead that aids divergence in the upper levels and the enhanced uplift provided by the Western Ghats. High wind shear can lop off the head of the towering weather system, leading to its assured collapse. Divergence at the top provides the system with the ventilation, which prompts more and more convective bands to wrap into the system.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

SOUTH AFRICA - Extreme weather conditions have caused a repeat of last month's forest fires across Mpumalanga.

OHIO - Monday's high temperature BROKE ANOTHER DAILY RECORD in Cinncinati, topping out at 94 degrees and making September, so far, the third hottest September ever. The previous record of 91 degrees was set in 1908.

SPACE WEATHER-
PERU METEOR IMPACT - Many theories floated around last week in the first few days after the crater was created in Peru, but some tests are in, and the crater outside a Peruvian town near Lake Titicaca was caused by a meteorite, not a mud volcano, a crashed American satellite, a Chilean missile attack or “a lake of sedimentary deposit.” Tests confirmed that the crater contained telltale magnetic fragments of a meteorite, and Peru’s Geophysics Institute recorded a large tremor in the area at the moment of impact. The mystery illness is probably not due to “panspermic alien microbes” or other space-based bacteria, as much as some had hoped or feared. The illness was likely the result of inhaling arsenic fumes. The meteorite created the gases when the object’s hot surface met an underground water supply tainted with arsenic, scientists said. Numerous arsenic deposits have been found in the subsoils of southern Peru. The naturally formed deposits contaminate local drinking water. Only 30 people were sickened, not the hundreds as previously estimated. (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Bacteria 'more dangerous in space' - Salmonella food bacteria flown on a 12-day space shuttle flight became more virulent in their weightless surroundings. When Salmonella typhimurium food bugs were flown in special flasks on the shuttle, they were found to alter the way they expressed 167 genes. The bacteria were almost three times as likely to kill infected mice compared with standard samples held on Earth. "Wherever humans go, microbes go; you can't sterilise humans. Wherever we go, under the oceans or orbiting the Earth, the microbes go with us, and it's important that we understand... how they're going to change." Currently, no vaccine exists for Salmonella food-borne infections in humans.

Monday, September 24 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
To get back my youth I would do anything in the world, except take exercise, get up early, or be respectable.
Oscar Wilde

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/23/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SCOTLAND - More than 10,000 of the most important ancient and historical sites around Scotland's coastline are at risk of being destroyed by the storms and rising sea levels that will come with global warming. Sites in jeopardy include the neolithic settlement of Skara Brae on Orkney and the prehistoric ruins at Jarlshof on Shetland. Others under threat range from Viking burial boats to Iron Age brochs and Mesolithic middens. New surveys for Historic Scotland reveal that the remains of communities up to 9000 years old could be lost forever due to accelerating coastal erosion. The potential loss is incalculable and has alarmed experts. "While people argue over whether climate change is leading to sea level rise and an increase in stormy weather, the coast continues to erode. Although wildlife and the natural habitat may be able to recover, ancient sites will be destroyed forever, and the remnants of our ancestors will be lost."

INDIA - On Sunday all vehicular traffic was prohibited in Puri along the marine drive road link from Hotel Dreamland towards the Sterling resorts following the wash out of the road by tidal sea waves. About one-and-a-half kilometers of the newly built road is being eroded out every day by huge tidal sea waves, particularly during the full moon and no moon days, reducing the width of the road. Although the authorities were busy piling sand bags and planting bushes along the roadsides to prevent damage, the sea has often been shifting its attack from one place to another. The hotel and apartment owners alongside the marine drive are now spending sleepless nights during the high tide periods. (photo)

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory report there's been increased shallow seismic activity at Augustine Volcano over the past week. The observatory has switched the aviation color code from green to yellow. Current earthquakes there are small, generally less than magnitude 1.0 and they are located at a shallow depth beneath the volcano's summit.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FRANCISCO was 199 nmi S of Hong Kong.
Tropical depression IVO was 84 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm JERRY was 911 nmi ENE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

Subtropical Storm Jerry formed Sunday in the Atlantic Ocean but posed no immediate threat to land. As of 5 p.m., Jerry was located about 1,060 miles west of the Azores, with top sustained winds near 40 mph. Forecasters said the storm was moving north around 6 mph and is expected to remain over open waters, far west of the Azores. Subtropical storms are hybrid systems that get energy from warm waters like tropical ones, but also from colliding warm and cold air masses like more common storms over land. Jerry is the 10th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Its winds extended outward about 105 miles. Jerry will be absorbed by a larger non-tropical North Atlantic storm early this week.
In the Pacific, Ivo was downgraded from a tropical storm to a depression early Sunday. At 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Ivo was about 95 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and moving east-northeast at 4 mph. The depression - which had maximum sustained winds of 30 mph - is expected to pass over or near the southern tip of Baja near the resort cities of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, a region that was hit early this month by Hurricane Henriette. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for the area.

CHINA - Shipping services across the Qiongzhou strait in south China were suspended as Francisco, the 14th tropical storm to hit China this year, approaches the island province of Hainan. Francisco formed on Saturday night on the South China Sea and intensified into tropical storm on Sunday morning. Whirling at a speed of 15 to 20 kilometers per hour westward, it is expected to land in Wenchang of east Hainan or Xuwen in west Guangdong later on Monday. The tropical storm is forecast to unleash gales and torrential rains in the two provinces.

NORTH KOREA suffered "unexpected damage" after Typhoon Wipha hit the country last weekend, resulting in the country's second severe flood-related damage in a month. About 7,000 hectares of crops in the southwestern province of Hwanghae were damaged or submerged by floods from the typhoon over the weekend. "On Sept. 18-20, the typhoon caused unexpected damage in several regions again." More than 45 centimeters fell in the region. Last month, North Korea was hit by its heaviest rainfall in 40 years, leaving some 600 people dead or missing and about 100,000 people homeless.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Continuous and heavy rainfall has submerged Bhadrak and thrown normal life out of gear. All the roads in the town have become water logged due to lack of the drainage system. Major residential areas in the town have become submerged. “The people of the town are habituated with the problem as the municipality has done nothing after several demands.” The town has experienced 270 mm of rainfall in the last two days. Sources said that the highest water level the Hadgarh reservoir can hold is 82.30 mt. Now the level is at 81.15 mt. “As the Salandi flows through Bhadrak town, the people residing in the low lying areas may face a deluge." Similarly the Baitarani river, near Akhuapada is flowing above the danger level. The people of Dhamnagar and the Bhandaripokhari blocks are facing floods for the fifth time this year.
Heavy rains continued to lash coastal Orissa for the third consecutive day, even as the depression formed over the Bay of Bengal has crossed over to the coast, weakening as it moved inland in a north westerly direction, and lay centred over Angul today. Torrential rains disrupted normal life and roads in several towns have been submerged. Several rivers showed a rising trend. The forecast for the next 48 hours is heavy rainfall in a few places in the state with a wind speed which is likely to reach 50 km.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Kangaroos are being hit by cars in increasing numbers on Victorian roads as the drought draws them to roadside areas and urban sprawl encroaches on their territory. Claims from motorists hitting kangaroos this year through July increased by 26 percent over the previous 12 months. "What you often get after rain is the road acts as a watershed, causing grass to germinate on the roadside when you may not have any anywhere else. We are also encroaching onto kangaroo habitat and kangaroos inevitably get stuck in paved street areas. Kangaroos do not have much road sense. They are quite unpredictable and will hop along next to you and then suddenly jump in front of the car."

Climate change is spurring a "worldwide economic and industrial restructuring" as more and more of the world's largest companies seek to confront global warming. Even so, some big firms were still doing far too little to identify risks and opportunities from climate change.

Sunday, September 23, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The surprising thing about young fools is how many survive to become old fools.
Doug Larson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/22/07 -
5.1 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE
5.3 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
9/21/07 -
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

AZERBAIJAN - A total of 715 homes have been damaged as a result of an earthquake which occurred in more than ten districts of Azerbaijan on September 20. The earthquake measuring 4 on the richter scale rendered 10 houses uninhabitable in Azerbaijan’s district of Tartar. The earthquake destroyed the medical center and music school in Tartar’s village of Borsunlu.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - Coastal areas in KwaZulu-Natal are bracing themselves for high waves and strong winds ahead of the Spring equinox today. The South African Weather Service says the expected increase in the wave height along the province's coastline is cause for concern. High waves caused severe damage along the KZN coast at the time of the Autumn equinox in March this year. Over the next three days temperatures are expected to drop and wind speed will pick up. "The swells will increase. What's going to happen is that as the big south west comes through it will pick up the swell size initially two and a half to three metres and overnight into Monday increasing it to between three and four metres coupled with very rough seas. I think it's a call for concern in terms of people being cautious along the beach. I don't know in terms of how it will affect parts of the coastline but swells are obviously going to increase causing bigger waves and probably breaking further along the shore."

Rising seas likely to flood U.S. history - Ultimately, rising seas will likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Virginia, as well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into orbit, many climate scientists are predicting. In about a century, some of the places that make America what it is may be slowly erased. Global warming — through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding — is expected to cause oceans to rise by one meter, or about 39 inches. It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation. Rising waters will lap at the foundations of old money Wall Street and the new money towers of Silicon Valley. They will swamp the locations of big city airports and major interstate highways. Some scientists believe it could happen in 50 years, others say 100, and still others say 150. "We're going to get a meter and there's nothing we can do about it. It's going to happen no matter what — the question is when." Protecting America's coastlines would run well into the billions and not all spots could be saved. "We're going to be into this big national debate about what we protect and at what cost." Even a scientist often quoted by global warming skeptics says he figures the seas will rise at least 16 inches by the end of the century. But he tells people to prepare for a rise of about three feet just in case. It's "not unreasonable at all" to expect that much in 100 years. "We've had a third of a meter in the last century." The change will be a gradual process, one that is so slow it will be easy to ignore - for a while. "Sea level rise is going to have more general impact to the population and the infrastructure than almost anything else that I can think of."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15W was 196 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
Tropical storm IVO was 168 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

FLORIDA - Rain and gusty winds were felt throughout Tampa Bay from Wednesday through Friday as Tropical Depression 10 made its way through the state before settling into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. In Clearwater, more than a half inch of rain was received early Friday morning, a RECORD FOR THE MONTH. Almost all the rain was received in one hour, SETTING ANOTHER RECORD FOR SEPTEMBER. The monthly RECORD WAS SET FOR HIGH WIND GUST on Wednesday, Sept. 19, at 32.2 mph.
Severe weather, including a tornado, damaged about 50 homes in central Florida before tropical disturbance Ten became a tropical depression Friday, sparing coastal Louisiana and Mississippi areas from being hit by a tropical storm. Only two injuries, both minor, were reported in the area about 30 miles northwest of Orlando. 2 to 4 inches of rain was expected, and as much as 6 inches in some areas of the Florida Panhandle.
In the Pacific, Hurricane Ivo was downgraded Friday to a tropical storm and was expected to continue to weaken as it headed toward Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. The storm had sustained winds of about 70 mph and was slowly chugging northeast.

ATLANTIC - A low located west of the Azores is on the verge of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone. This system is expected to move little over the next 12-24 hours then move to the northeast over the open Atlantic.
Another low about 500 nm south of the Cape Verde Islands remains well-organized and has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next few days.
A low over the Yucatan near northern Belize has the potential for some develpment after it moves over open water.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BANGLADESH - Eighty Bangladeshi fishermen are missing after 10 fishing boats sank in the Bay of Bengal during a storm overnight. Strong winds and high waves were preventing rescuers from launching a search for the missing fishermen. Meteorologists said a storm was churning in the Bay of Bengal, heading towards India's eastern coastal state of Orissa. Bangladesh ports have been asked to show storm warnings. Fishermen who had managed to return to shore said they had seen several fishing boats sink in the storm.

INDIA - Three successive waves of floods in Assam this monsoon have taken a toll on its agriculture produce, destroying standing crops in over six lakh hectares of farmland, causing prices of essential food items to spiral skywards. Inundation of agricultural fields damaged standing crops and vegetables thereby causing scarcity of vital food items and causing their prices to rise beyond the reach of the common man, particularly in the capital city Guwahati. Despite government measures to control the price rise, buyers were hard-pressed to buy vegetables, rice, meat, fish, mustard oil, milk powder, kerosene and the likes, as their prices have risen phenomenally. Official sources said due to the first wave of floods destroying rice and pulse cultivation the farmers resorted to growing vegetables on high land. But their production was very low causing shortage in the supply of essential food items.

SLOVENIA - on Tuesday, torrential rains in Slovenia damaged hundreds of houses, swept away bridges and cars and buried a national monument. Two villages remain cut off from outside help, as a bridge and a road leading to them have been washed away. Helicopters are dropping food and other necessities to the residents. The death toll is currently at six.

GUATEMALA - Heavy rains triggered mudslides and flooding that killed at least three people and left as many as eight missing in Guatemala.

COLUMBIA - Since March, continuous heavy rains in Colombia have caused floods affecting 600,000 people in 247 municipalities and 27 departments. Some families who were originally displaced by the internal armed conflict in Colombia had sought refuge settling in marginal areas along riverbanks. With the ensuing floods, families then found themselves swept up into another emergency. "Although the water has receded from most of the houses, the resulting effects have created a significant health situation. In the communities there are no basic services, water systems or adequate toilets."

CALIFORNIA - An out-of-season storm lashed Southern California with thunderous squalls Saturday and wreaked havoc across the region, trapping cars in mud, sending so much polluted water to the coast that officials warned people not to go into the ocean, and contributing, officials suspect, to traffic accidents that killed at least five people. The RARE storm, the product of a low-pressure system known as an "orphan," moved out of the area Saturday night. In perhaps the most dramatic incident, mud, ash and debris swept down hillsides near the west end of Griffith Park, overflowing a clogged drainage basin, oozing across Forest Lawn Drive and trapping 14 vehicles. Most vehicles were parked and unoccupied at the time, though several drivers got stuck while stopped at red lights. Witnesses described a frenzied scene, with lava-like goop seeping down the hills and victims racing to their cars to try to escape.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - A scientist has warned that the Coorong ecosystem near the mouth of the River Murray in South Australia is in danger of collapse. A lack of water flow has led to increased salinity, the death of plant life and fish and water birds leaving the area. Increasing the water levels in the Coorong at times would help, but that is unlikely to happen soon. "I think one should just be getting used to the idea ... of failing to deal with the over-allocation of water resources in the river in the times when we could do something about it. [It] is going to reap the consequences that the Coorong is going to be one of those tragedies that goes with it."

The effects of climate change will be felt sooner than scientists realised and the world must learn to live with the effects, experts said. Destructive changes in temperature, rainfall and agriculture are now forecast to occur several decades earlier than thought. Vulnerable people such as the old and poor would be the worst affected, and world leaders have not yet accepted their countries would have to adapt to the likely consequences. Politicians wasted a decade by focusing only on ways to cut emissions, and had only recently woken up to the need to adapt. "We now have a choice between a future with a damaged world or a severely damaged world." The international response to the problem has failed to grasp that serious consequences such as reduced crop yields and water shortages are now inevitable. "Wheat production in India is already in decline, for no other reason than climate change. Everyone thought we didn't have to worry about Indian agriculture for several decades. Now we know it's being affected now." There are signs a similar shift is under way in China. It is "very unlikely" that average temperature rise could be limited to 2C, as sought by European governments. That would place 2 billion more people at risk of water shortages, and hundreds of millions more will face hunger.

Global warming is occurring at a faster rate than the worst-case scenario envisaged by experts just six years ago. "For the key performance indicators about climate, change is occurring far in advance of the worst-case scenario. Carbon dioxide's increasing more rapidly, sea levels are rising more rapidly (and) the Arctic ice cap is melting away more quickly than were projected in 2001." The world needs an international organisation similar to the United Nations dedicated solely to climate change. We need to "deal with the global pollution crisis as a species."

Friday, September 21, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
America is a large, friendly dog in a very small room.
Every time it wags its tail, it knocks over a chair.
Arnold Toynbee

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/20/07 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
6.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA
5.1 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 13E was 1186 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (dissipating)
Hurricane IVO was 307 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (extreme uncertainty as to its path)
Tropical depression 14W was 616 nmi W of Agana, Guam.

Atlantic - The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a special tropical disturbance statement at 4 p.m.Thursday, saying a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has not yet developed sufficiently to be named, but could become a storm over the next day or two. Surprisingly, the system is just off the coast of central Florida southwest of St. Petersburg. Radar images out of Tampa show little movement, while satellite loops indicate a northerly drift. The eventual landfall of the storm, which would be named Jerry, is unknown. The St. Petersburg area of Florida will continue to be drenched by swirling bands trying to feed the center of what is expected to become the Jerry storm. Once it does develop, the storm is projected by computer models to head toward New Orleans. Most models do not develop the storm into even a Category 1 hurricane. They predict it will make landfall as a tropical storm, with winds of perhaps 55 mph. A complicated weather pattern has developed in the Gulf and the unpredictability of the setup has made projections mostly incorrect for the past two days. This storm did not cross the state from the east coast, but instead is springing from an upper level low pressure that dropped southwest from a stalled cold front. The east coast swirl of surface low pressure raced off to hit South Carolina beaches with gusty winds and higher-than-normal tides. The fact that an upper level low pressure area is atop the Gulf swirl means slow intensification, experts say. A high pressure system instead would speed development. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AFRICA - Severe flooding caused by torrential rains stretching across Africa is probably linked to the "La Nina" weather pattern thousands of mile away in the Pacific. The World Meteorological Organisation warned in July that the combination of tropical wind patterns over the Pacific Ocean and cooler than normal sea temperatures off western Latin America could have a "planetary" impact. The link between "La Nina" and flooding in western Africa has been closely studied since the 1990s. "We have found a very close relationship between La Nina and the phenomenon of flooding in West Africa. It was therefore very probable that a rather rainy season would occur in the region extending from Sudan in the east to Senegal in the west."

KOREA - Heavy rains hit a number of provinces in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) this week causing enormous losses. Since Tuesday, up to 30 cm of rain fell in the provinces of South Phyongan, North Hwanghae and South Hwanghae. The capital city of Pyongyang was also struck by over 268 mm of rain in the past two days. "Torrential rain and strong winds have caused enormous losses in many areas." Heavy rains have hit most parts of the DPRK last month, leaving at least 600 people dead and 100,000 people homeless.

FLORIDA - Wednesday's deluge dumped more than 4 inches of rain on Daytona Beach by 8 p.m., a RECORD for Sept. 19 in the city. The pounding rain knocked down power lines and flooded neighborhoods.
Constant rain after weeks of unseasonable drought in Central Florida created the perfect mix to open up sinkholes. Inspectors examined two houses in Lake County with major cracks to determine whether or not sinkholes are to blame.Just three weeks ago a sinkhole swallowed an entire kitchen in Apopka. Ten people were renting the home when the sinkhole forced them out. (photo / video)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CALIFORNIA - A storm which originated in British Columbia passed through Northern California Wednesday, and brought rain and snow at higher elevations throughout Southern California Thursday and today, which will likely be the most active day. "This system is pretty much UNPRECEDENTED in terms of cold weather and snow levels for September for southwestern California," such a weather pattern HAS NOT BEEN RECORDED IN RECENT HISTORY. "This is a storm that we wouldn't typically see this time of year. It's a RARE and cold September storm, and is typically something we would see in January or December." With high temperatures expected to be no more than 70 degrees, and lows dipping into the 40s, the weather in the next few days strikingly differs from the heat wave that plagued Santa Clarita, and the rest of Southern California, just weeks ago. "That's one thing that is significant about this storm is that it's cooling everything off by between 10 to 15 degrees everywhere." The storm brings the first significant rainfall in about 150 days to southern California.

Thursday, September 20, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
It is very difficult to live among people you love and hold back from offering them advice.
Anne Tyler

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Quakes this morning in Indonesia -
5.4 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
6.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/19/07 -
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.4 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - Tuesday Volcan Arenal gave the residents and visitors an unexpected show. At around 10:12am, lava spewed out of the cone and down the southwest side of the mountain finally stopping around 1000 meters above sea level. It is no surprise that there is activity in the mountain, but typically the lava does not travel outside of the cone. It simply jumps out of the cone and back in to form a protuberance or bulge. This time the pressure on the protuberance was too much and the lava broke through to form a pyroclastic flow, which is an eruption of high-temperature gases, ash, and rocks. This time of year brings a lot of seismic activity to the area, causing quite a few opportunities for visitors to see some action. Although there was no dangerous threat, scientists are going to keep a close eye on the volcano. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 13E was 1159 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IVO was 409 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ivo formed in the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday off Mexico and has become a hurricane on its way to the Baja California peninsula. It is due to curve in toward the coast and hit Baja California early next week. Most of the peninsula is sparsely inhabited desert but Baja California is also home to a beach resort, Los Cabos. Hurricane Henriette slammed into Los Cabos earlier this month, killing a foreign tourist and two fishermen.

Emergency officials in Louisiana were on guard Wednesday as a weather system with the potential to become a tropical storm appeared to be heading toward the state, prompting Shell Oil to announce evacuation plans for hundreds of staff from its rigs in the region. The National Weather Service in its hazardous weather outlook said the low-pressure area could affect southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi Friday night or Saturday and that it would have the potential to become a subtropical or tropical storm. Higher-than-normal tides and coastal flooding were possible Friday into Saturday.
A large area of disturbed weather is over the western Atlantic, the NW Bahamas, the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The environment is gradually becoming favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form as the system moves westward into the eastern Gulf later today.

Typhoon Wipha weakened as it continued to sweep through eastern China early Thursday, but not before killing at least seven, destroying thousands of homes and causing landslides.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AFRICA - Flood zones face more rain - A million Africans already suffering from severe flooding have been warned of further misery to come with heavy rain predicted from West to East. 250 people have died and more than 600,000 people been made homeless across 17 countries. North-eastern Uganda has lost most of its crops to flooding, after the HEAVIEST RAINS IN THREE DECADES. "We anticipate that the situation will worsen," with a flood zone already stretching "from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea." In Ethiopia, more than 4,000 people are stranded in the eastern Afar region after a dam collapsed. More than 250,000 have been left homeless in Sudan alone. In northern Ghana, more than 30 people have died and flooding has ruined the supply of clean water.

INDIA - The retreating south-west monsoon in Andhra Pradesh claimed 21 lives in the past 72 hours. An additional fifteen people were struck and killed by lighting.
Fog in September in India? Sounds strange, but it’s true. On Wednesday morning, Ambala in Haryana, and from Zirakpur to Ludhiana in Punjab experienced poor visibility due to fog. For the past three days, Banur residents have been wondering why visibility on roads is low. They have never seen fog in September. "It’s strange despite such high day temperature, there’s fog early in the morning." The air was laden with 95% moisture. Met officials and city-based environmentalists said this climatic condition was ‘RARE’. "Earlier, we had experienced mist and haze during this season, but fog is rare. It’s been happening since the last three days. However, it’s a natural phenomenon. Humidity is present in the atmosphere. Low speed of winds, stable weather and a plunge in the morning temperature make a perfect condition for fog to occur. Fog can also happen because of more moisture in the air and a clear sky." "Abrupt changes in climate are expected. Though fog is rare in September, but it can be due to heat entrapment in atmospheric layers. This is also a result of global climate change."

AUSTRALIA - Wellington Dam may overflow by the weekend if heavy rain continues. The dam is south-west Western Australia's largest water resource and is used for irrigation. Heavy rains have increased the dam level by 40 per cent since July. It is more than 96 per cent of capacity. The region's largest drinking water supply dams, Harris and Stirling, are two-thirds full. The corporation says eight of the 23 south-west dams are currently overflowing. "We had the worst rainfall on record last year, this year wasn't looking much better until the middle of July and then the heavens opened up and they basically haven't stopped since, leading to the position where we are closing in on the best position we have been since 2000...It's a strange thing because even though the dam levels are very high, the actual rainfall totals for the year are so far down on average." (photo)

SPACE WEATHER -
PERU - Scientists are perplexed by the meteorite strike in Peru near Lake Titicaca that has left a 20-metre-wide crater and is reported to have produced fumes that made up to 200 people sick. A team of scientists found no radiation at the crash site and confirmed that a fallen satellite did not create the crater. Sulphur, arsenic or other toxins that melted in the extreme heat produced by the meteorite strike might have caused the illnesses that struck the local population. "What an amazing story ... I've never heard of any such extreme health effects associated with a meteorite fall before. [But] it's possible that gases could have been released due to effects of heat and pressure on disrupted rocks under the crater." Possible contenders include sulphur, sulphur dioxide, chlorine, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. According to meteorite experts, this appears to be a unique event. No other meteorites have been recorded releasing toxic gases. "Getting hit on the head by one wouldn't be good, but I've never heard of any adverse health effects related to gases released by meteorites before. There's something not quite right about this."
Based on reports of fumes emanating from the crater, some scientists actually suspect that the event could have been some kind of geyser-like explosion rather than a meteorite impact. "Statistically, it's far more likely to have come from below than from above." The noxious fumes that have supposedly sickened curious locals who went to examine the crater would seem to indicate hydrothermal activity, such as a local gas explosion, because "meteorites don't give off odors." "Many of the reported features of the crater ("boiling water," sulphurous fumes, etc.) point to a geological mechanism of the crater formation." It's not impossible that the crater was left by a meteorite, but if so, then the impact object most likely was small, based on the size of the crater. It would also probably have been a metal meteorite, because those are the only kind of small meteorites that don't burn up as they plummet through Earth's atmosphere. Small stony meteorites rarely make it to the surface. Because no one actually saw anything impact at the crater site, it's hard to say whether a space rock was involved because they are often deceptive as to where they will land. (video of impact crater)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - Quong Hop & Co. of South San Francisco, California is recalling all SOY DELI brand tofu and certain varieties of SOY DELI and QUONG HOP brand tofu because they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. The products are distributed in the Midwest and West coast throughout supermarkets and natural food stores.
-RECALLED - Bravo! announced a recall of select tubes of three of its frozen, raw poultry products for cats and dogs. The pet food is being recalled because two of the products have the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes, while the other product has the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. The recalled products are distributed nationwide to distributors, retail stores, internet sales and directly to consumers.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
Thomas Jefferson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Indonesian aftershocks this morning:
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/18/07 -
5.2 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.2 MYANMAR
5.1 FIJI

INDONESIA - A team has established a network of position-markers, linked by satellite, that show a constant creep, northeast, among the islands on Indonesia's Indian Ocean frontier. The first one was placed in August 2002. The 30 measuring stations along Sumatra's western coast tell an ominous tale. Driven by the plate beneath the Indian Ocean, the entire coastline is flexing, as the earth literally bends. The pressures are already enormous, and at some point, probably soon, they will become intolerable. The implications are terrifying. "Eventually it has got to release in (the form) of a giant earthquake." It may be a rare magnitude-9 quake. Scientists are now examining the evidence that they believe indicates the arrival another giant earthquake, and possible tsunami - with the plates so tightly sprung, they believe it will happen sooner, rather than later. "Whenever I am in Padang I think about my escape routes, almost every moment." (quake video)

INDONESIA - It has been suspected that Indonesia's Mentawai Islands were the worst affected by last Wednesday's 8.4 magnitude quake, but the extent of the damage across the remote island chain is only just being revealed. Boatloads of aid have arrived at some the islands off Sumatra but it was too little, too late, to save the lives of two sick children and scores more remain threatened by disease. Almost 90% of some island villages were "obliterated" and 170 people in temporary shelters are already suffering from diarrhoea and other illnesses.

HONDURAS - Massive evacuation continues in central Honduras due to the aftershocks affecting the country since Saturday's devastating 5.5 earthquake. The quake activated faults whose 15-18 aftershocks have left over 1,600 victims and have destroyed 140 homes at 17 Tolupan indigenous communities.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / SEA LEVEL RISE -
INDONESIA - Despite the intensity of the shallow 8.4 undersea earthquake last week, a quirk of nature sent the full force of the tsunami that it generated out to sea, preventing a repeat of the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster that killed more than 230,000 people. The huge mass of water spawned by the initial 8.4-magnitude quake was pushed to sea rather than land. "It could have quite easily have been the other way." "It's a quirk of nature that this is how it happened." Pressure between the shifting Australian-Indian and Asian plates had been building up over hundreds of thousands of years and was ready to explode.

AUSTRALIA - There are bleak predictions about the impact of climate change on the future of Australia's tropical birds. Scientists are warning that sea levels in northern Australia are already rising by around eight millimetres a year, so fast that salt water could flood thousands of kilometres of pristine wetland. That would destroy vast areas of tropical bird habitat, putting 66 species at risk of extinction. At greatest risk are birds with the smallest range that have nowhere left to go, as well as water birds from magpie geese, to ducks, herons, ibis and egrets. "Within sort of three generations of the bird you could see a 50, 70 per cent decline. We really don't know how fast it's going to happen, but it's so flat, and you could imagine that a few big tides could kill off large areas of suitable habitat and the birds simply wouldn't find food." Within 30 years, up to 66 species could be threatened in wetlands, rainforests and grassland savannas. Already in the Top End, saltwater incursion is destroying wetland areas near Kakadu National Park. Rising salinity will only destroy more trees and mangroves, leaving a wasteland of salt and mud. Sea levels in Northern Australia could rise by 70 centimetres in the next century, wreaking devastation further and further inland. "As the sea level rise occurs, the tidal wedge - that's the amount of water that actually moves upstream driven by the tide - will get further and further inland, and the proportion of salt that it's mixing into the freshwater from the river will become greater and greater, so the salt levels will rise." Australia's National Tidal Facility has measured water movements for decades. Its research shows sea levels across northern Australia are rising four times faster than the global average. Scientists do not know why northern Australia is seeing a faster sea level rise.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm IVO was 438 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Typhoon WIPHA was 183 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan.

Typhoon Wipha has hit China's densely populated eastern coast but will probably miss the country's financial hub, Shanghai. Wipha will probably pass 100km (60 miles) to the south-west of the city on Wednesday evening local time. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm but could still cause major damage in the area near Shanghai. One man died after being electrocuted as a result of the storm. More than two million people were evacuated from Shanghai and the nearby provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang before the storm landed. Authorities have warned Wipha could still bring extensive flooding, high winds and heavy rains to China's biggest city and surrounding areas.

TROPICAL STORM IVO has become better organized throughout the night. The offical intensity forecast shows strengthening to a hurricane in a day or two.
Another tropical wave in the Pacific is organizing and tropical cyclone formation there is possible within the next 24 hours. The next tropical storm will be named Jerry.

ATLANTIC - A large area of disturbed weather is over the western Atlantic, northern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. Surface pressures are gradually falling and environmental conditions appear favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form over the next day or two. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers, squalls and locally heavy rains over portions of Florida during the next day or two.
In addition to the heavy rain, the low through Thursday will create an onshore flow that will lead to dangerous surf and rip currents from South Carolina to Florida. Coastal flood warnings are in effect. By Thursday, the storm will cross Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico. The low could develop tropical characteristics as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - Torrential rain lashed the northern part of the Tohoku region Tuesday, leaving three people missing due to floods after RECORD DOWNPOURS hit some districts. Akita and Iwate prefectures were hit particularly hard, and authorities were searching for the missing people and attempting to restore utilities. Heavy rains prompted the authorities to order 36,120 residents in 14,233 households in Akita, Iwate, Miyagi and Aomori prefectures to evacuate, but the order was lifted by Tuesday evening in most areas. Ten weather observation spots in Akita Prefecture recorded their HEAVIEST-EVER-24-HOUR RAINFALL through 3 a.m. Tuesday. (photo)

CANADA - A tornado that hit Elie, Manitoba, in the summer has been rated the STRONGEST DOCUMENTED TWISTER IN CANADIAN HISTORY.

UNUSUAL COLD-
CALIFORNIA - An intense, winter-like storm is headed toward San Diego County, and the National Weather Service is growing increasingly confident it will pack a punch when it arrives. Forecasters are giving the storm a wide window – sometime between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning. They say that when it hits, intense downpours, thunderstorms, hail and even snow in the higher mountains are all possible. Temperatures around the county will be well below seasonal averages, and the snow level could drop to 6,000 feet Friday. The storm is expected to be near the Bay Area today, then move down the Central California coast Thursday. It is forecast to pick up strength before moving inland over Southern California Thursday. Cold storms in September are EXTREMELY RARE in San Diego. The storm, if it develops as forecast, would be the strongest storm from the northern Pacific in September since 1986.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

BRITAIN - Flora and fauna have been so thrown by this year's UNUSUAL weather that Britain may be experiencing both spring and autumn simultaneously. This year the weather has been both warm and also very wet. The UNPRECEDENTED weather has led to autumn arriving early in many parts of the country, with trees shedding their leaves ahead of schedule. Meanwhile some bluebells and crocuses, which customarily flower in April, have already reared their heads. "We saw signs of autumn in August when it normally kicks in about September. Fungi was well advanced with lots of autumn species around. But, at the same time, there have been bluebells flowering in Radnorshire in Wales, which shows how much the warm weather has confused nature."

Shockwaves from melting icecaps are triggering earthquakes - the melting of Greenland's ice sheet has accelerated so dramatically that it is triggering earthquakes for the first time. Scientists monitoring the glaciers have revealed that movements of gigantic pieces of ice are creating shockwaves that register up to three on the Richter scale. The speed of the arctic ice melt has accelerated to such an extent that a UN report issued earlier this year is now thought to be out of date by its own authors. "Five years ago we made models predicting how much ice would melt and when. Five years later we are already at the levels predicted for 2040, in a year's time we'll be at 2050." Greenland's ice cap is immense, the second largest in the world, and its break-up would be catastrophic. The packed ice is up to two miles thick and its total collapse into the ocean would raise worldside sea levels by seven metres. At the Ilulissat Icefjord, 250km north of the Arctic Circle, the advance of the glacier into the sea is now visible to the naked eye. "It's moving toward the sea at a rate of two metres an hour." As the reality of the UNPRECEDENTED thaw becomes apparent, the consequences are outstripping the capacity of scientific models to predict it. Earthquakes, or glacial ice quakes, in the north-west of Greenland are among the latest ominous signs that an unprecedented step change is under way. "Glacial earthquakes in north-west Greenland did not exist until three years ago." The study of these ice quakes is still in its infancy, but their occurence is in itself disturbing. "It is becoming a lot more volatile." This dramatic warming is being felt across the Arctic region. In Alaska, earthquakes are rocking the seabed as tectonic plates – subdued for centuries by the weight of the glaciers on top of them – are now moving against each other again. In the north of Sweden, mean temperatures have risen above zero for THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD. "We are looking at a very different planet than the one we are used to."

CANADA - The mountain pine beetle is projected to kill more than 78% of British Columbia's marketable pine forests within the next eight years.

SPACE WEATHER -
Scores ill in Peru 'meteor crash' - Hundreds of people in Peru have needed treatment after an object from space - said to be a meteorite - plummeted to Earth in a remote area. The object left a deep crater after crashing down over the weekend near the town of Carancas in the Andes. People who have visited the scene have been complaining of headaches, vomiting and nausea after inhaling gases. A team of scientists is on its way to the site to collect samples and verify whether it was indeed a meteorite. "It [the object] is buried in the earth...A bull is dead and some other animals are already sick." The incident began on Saturday night, when people near Carancas in the Puno region, some 1,300km (800 miles) south of Lima, reported seeing a fireball in the sky coming towards them. The object then hit the ground, leaving a 30m (98ft) wide and 6m (20ft) deep crater. The crater spewed what officials described as fetid, noxious gases. An engineer from the Peruvian Nuclear Energy Institute said no radiation had been detected from the crater and ruled out the fallen object being a satellite. "It is a conventional meteorite that, when it struck, produced gases by fusing with elements of the terrain." (photo)
Seven policemen who went to check on the reports also became ill and had to be given oxygen before being hospitalized. Rescue teams and experts were dispatched to the scene. "Boiling water started coming out of the crater and particles of rock and cinders were found nearby. Residents are very concerned." Residents complained of headaches and vomiting brought on by a "strange odor." Around midday Saturday, villagers were startled by an explosion and a fireball that many were convinced was an airplane crashing near their remote village, located in the high Andes department of Puno in the Desaguadero region, near the border with Bolivia.
Tuesday, scientists who went to the town of Carancas in the Region of Puno, Peru, have confirmed that the glowing object which fell from the sky on Saturday afternoon was indeed a meteorite. A chondrite meteorite had caused the 17 meter (55 foot) wide and 5 meter (16 foot) deep crater when it landed on earth. It was reported that the water would be drained out of the crater to establish the exact size of the hole that was made by the chondrite meteorite. The chondrite was not radioactive and did not have any toxic gases or substances which could be harmful to people's health. On the other hand, it had not yet been established if the water supply in the province of Chucuito had been contaminated or not.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - Dole Fresh Vegetables is recalling (due to E. coli contamination) all salad bearing the label "Dole Hearts Delight" sold in the U.S. and Canada with a "best if used by" date of September 19, 2007. The salad was sold in plastic bags of 227 grams in Canada and one-half pound in the U.S. This product was sold in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime Provinces in Canada and in Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and neighboring states in the U.S.
-RECALLED - B. Braun Medical Inc., Bethlehem, PA, announced on July 30, 2007 a nationwide recall of Normal Saline Flush syringes due to an increase in customer complaints for particulate matter in the saline. The introduction of particulate matter into the blood stream may result in phlebitis and / or damage to vital organs such as the brain, kidneys, heart and lungs. To a less likely extent, there is a potential for the development of pulmonary embolism or silicone embolism syndrome, which could cause severe injury and / or death. Symptoms would generally be expected to develop quickly. However, the risk associated with use of this product is cumulative and increases with each additional exposure.

VACCINATIONS will be created for each of the "big three" killers - HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria - within the next decade, a world health crusader says.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The meeting of two personalities is like the contact of two chemical substances:
if there is any reaction, both are transformed.
Carl Jung

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/17/07 -
5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 GUAM REGION
5.1 TONGA
5.2 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
9/16/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 COMOROS REGION
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

INDONESIA - Some villagers in western Indonesia started returning home Saturday, three days after a mammoth quake jolted the region and generated a powerful string of aftershocks. But many remained jittery — a feeling experts say may be justified. The 8.4-magnitude quake that shook Southeast Asia on Wednesday has been followed by more than 60 strong aftershocks — including a magnitude 7.8 and a 7.1 — that have killed at least 17 people, damaged hundreds of homes and churned up a 3-meter (10-foot) high tsunami. Several experts are predicting a repeat of the massive earthquake that triggered the 2004 Asian tsunami, which killed more than 230,000 people in a dozen Indian Ocean nations. "We are a huge step closer. I think it's just around the corner." Geologists say the biggest quakes in the area are all on the edge of the Mentawai island patch — which last experienced a mammoth temblor in 1833 — and have piled even more pressure onto the fault. Siberut island, part of the Mentawaian archipelago, sits directly over the one spot where pressure continues to build. "We are kind of in amazement that with so much activity going on around here ... it hasn't cut loose." Authorities have predicted the next big one that spawns a tsunami could kill up to 60,000 people near the low-lying seaside town of Padang.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - The 8.4 magnitude quake that struck off the coast of western Sumatra on Wednesday, and the series of aftershocks, spurred fresh magma movement in the volcanoes which lie close to the quake's epicenter. The massive earthquake triggered more activity in three volcanoes in the area, but all have since calmed down. "It is true that the shocks have spurred an increased number of tremors in surrounding volcanoes. The number of tremors indicate the movement of magma. If you ask me whether any of the volcanoes will erupt because of the shocks, my definite answer is no. There is nothing to worry about." Mount Talang - which lies just 30 km (19 miles) from Padang, the city nearest to the epicenter of one of the quakes - recorded almost 40 times the usual number of volcanic tremors a day after the quake. But activity on the volcano dropped dramatically the day after, and the number of tremors is now close to the normal six a day. Two other volcanoes, Mount Dempo and Kaba, in the worst-hit province of Bengkulu, have also calmed down after the aftershocks began to ease.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression INGRID was 184 nmi NNE of Fort de France, Martinique.
Typhoon WIPHA was 126 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan.


Following on the heels of Nari, a second typhoon (Wipha) is approaching the Korean peninsula. Jeju Island and South and North Jeolla provinces will be see indirect effects from the typhoon by this afternoon. "Along with Jeju Island, the west and south coasts are likely to be hit by the typhoon from Wednesday." Typhoon Nari, which smashed ashore on Jeju Island and southwestern parts of the peninsula Sunday, lost power Monday morning and disappeared off the East Sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan. A total of 18 people were confirmed dead and two were missing. On Jeju Island alone, which was hit hardest by the typhoon, 11 people were killed Sunday night and two were reported missing. About 940 people were evacuated to shelters nationwide. More than 380 houses and 19,000 hectares of farmland were inundated across the country. Thirty-seven fishing boats were destroyed or capsized. A RECORD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL of 590mm pounded Jeju Island until Sunday night, and 325 houses were submerged on the island alone. Most regions in southern parts of the country including Jangheung and Goheung also had more than 250mm of rain.

CHINA was evacuating tens of thousands of people from its financial hub Shanghai on Tuesday in the face of powerful category 4 typhoon Wipha churning towards the east coast. About 200,000 people living in exposed areas in the city of over 14 million would be moved to temporary shelters before evening when Typhoon Wipha is expected to make landfall after swiping the island of Taiwan. Schools, offices and markets were closed on the northern part of Taiwan near the capital, Taipei, where it has been raining steadily since late Monday. It is forecast to swipe Taiwan and head straight up the east coast of China towards Shanghai before heading out to sea again towards the Korean peninsula.

JAPAN - Fukuoka lit up by orange clouds in UNUSUAL weather phenomenon - Central Fukuoka basked in an orange glow on Sunday as rain clouds were lit up by a stream of late sun breaking through a gap in the clouds. The weather caused buildings in the area to turn a sepia color, giving the city an unusual glow. Fukuoka metrological officials said that it had been raining intermittently in Fukuoka on Sunday, but there was a break at dusk, and the sun streamed in, lighting up the clouds. The sun had apparently hit rain clouds that were lying low as a result of Typhoon No. 11 that had passed through the area, causing the clouds to turn orange. "When typhoons occur, the rain clouds don't spread out to cover the whole area; it's easy for them to break up as they spread out. It seems that as this happened, a gap formed in the west, making it easier for the light to come in. Several conditions came together at once to create this unusual phenomenon." (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW YORK - this year has been ONE OF THE WETTEST – AND MOST EXTREME – YEARS IN WEATHER HISTORY for the city of New York. Coming off both the fourth wettest spring and summer ever, New York City could actually see its second wettest year in history if this year’s strange weather trends continue. Between January and August, officials measured 46.55 inches of precipitation in Central Park. If averages count for anything, then the 23 inches averaged during each of the first two-thirds of the year would mean we could finish with upwards of 70 inches, well past the 67.03 inches measured in 1972 – the second highest total ever. The record for highest precipitation total ever in New York City is 80.56 inches measured in 1983. "We’re in a pattern of extreme cycles, weather extreme cycles that could continue for the next couple of decades. We’ve been in extremes as far as record precipitation. For example, the last couple of years we’ve seen some of the wettest springs and summers of all time. Severe storm threats have been UNUSUALLY high, with RARE occurrences happening more frequently, such as the tornado in Brooklyn and the flooding in Queens.” Those strange events, not to mention the UNUSUALLY warm winter – in which temperatures hit 70 degrees in early January – have led many to wonder how global warming has fit into the equation. “If you’re thinking about global warming keep this in mind: during the past year it's the FIRST TIME EVER that just about every single state was averaging above normal temperatures." Winter has seen its fair share of extremes too. This past February was one of the coldest ever, with an average temperature of 28.2 degrees. In February of 2006, a record snowfall measuring 26.9 inches fell in Central Park, falling within just 24 hours, and breaking the previous record set back in December of 1947. This coming winter could be even colder, with the possibile return of La Niña. The extremes aren’t happening just in New York City. “We’ve been in extremes as far as the hurricane cycle with super hurricanes becoming more common. This past hurricane season we’ve already seen two category five hurricanes – some of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall ever. Dean and Felix were some of the most powerful hurricanes to strike land, not to mention happening within two weeks of each other. I’ve never seen anything like that ever."

List of summer's of RECORD-BREAKING WEATHER - worldwide.

MYSTERY BOOMS-
CALIFORNIA - Mysterious shaking along Central Coast on Monday morning - Folks in the Five Cities Area reported they felt an earthquake. People as far away as Santa Maria to Los Osos also felt shaking. One San Luis Obispo woman said she saw her windows shake three times about five minutes apart. "It really shook, and I though we're having an earthquake, but nothing else was shaking. So I don't know. Just the windows? Just the windows." The U.S. Geological Survey is not reporting any earthquakes in the area. Monday's shaking is consistent with past sonic booms. Action News contacted several military bases across the region but none would confirm that that was the cause.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

BRITAIN - A woman in Southcote has defied expectations, and seemingly science, and grown a banana tree in her back garden. Three years after being planted, the tree started shooting earlier this month. Now bananas are starting to form. Bananas usually only thrive in areas near the equator such as the Canary Islands and the Caribbean where the weather is warm all year round. “This kind of thing used to be absolutely unthinkable but thanks to the climate people are producing exotic fruits like olives, although bananas are indeed EXTREMELY UNUSUAL."

CLIMATE CHANGE - Around the world, scientists have found that climate change is altering natural ecosystems, making profound changes in the ways that animals live, migrate, eat and grow. Some species have benefited from the shift. Others have been left disastrously out of sync with their food supply. Two are known to have simply disappeared. One study, which examined 1,598 plant and animal species, found that nearly 60 percent appeared to have changed in some way. If warming continues as predicted, scientists say, 20 percent or more of the planet's plant and animal species could be at increased risk of extinction. Some changes have already begun. "This is actually something we see from pole to pole, and from sea level to the highest mountains in the world. It is not something we're going to see [only] in the future. It's something we see right now." The mechanisms that helped animals adapt during previous warming spells - evolution or long-range migration - often aren't able to keep up with the current quick changes. Scientists say that effects are beginning to show from the Arctic to the Appalachian Mountains. centuries-old patterns shifting. Scientists have noticed changes in the timing of seasonal migrations, presumably caused by the earlier onset of warm weather. In some cases, migrating animals suddenly find themselves out of rhythm, missing the weather conditions or the food they need. In parts of the Rocky Mountains, American robins arrive two weeks earlier than they used to - and often discover the ground snow-covered and little food to be found. In other cases, an animal's entire territory that shifts, as old habitats become too warm.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
Avian flu has struck ducks near Hong Kong.

WEST NILE VIRUS - New numbers show Canada is experiencing its worst year for West Nile virus, and as strange as it sounds, one reason could be the lack of a certain type of mosquito.

PET TREATS - Several brands of made-in-China jerky treats are making pets ill, though investigators say melamine, the industrial chemical that spurred an extensive recall earlier this year, has been ruled out as a contaminant.

Monday, September 17, 2007 -

There will be no update today.

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