Featured Disasters From Previous Weeks

Monday, October 31, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.4 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -

Typhoon Kai-tak is forecast to strike Vietnam at about 12:00 GMT on November 2 with category 1 strength. Torrential rains have occurred in almost all central coastal provinces from Ha Tinh southward to Phu Yen over the past two days.

Hurricane Beta - By Sunday afternoon, it had weakened to a tropical storm with 65mph winds as it swept across Nicaragua, dumping up to 15 inches of rain. Forecasters had predicted the storm would touch down in the far northeastern region of Nicaragua, prompting officials to evacuate thousands of people from the far eastern coastal port of Cabo de Gracias a Dios, and from along the River Coco, both on the Honduras border. But early yesterday, Beta took an unexpected turn south, and headed for Nicaragua’s central coastline. In Honduras, authorities evacuated more than 7,800 people from 50 communities along the northeastern Atlantic coast after four rivers overflowed due to heavy rains dumped by Hurricane Beta. The weakened storm should dissipate over Nicaragua today without its eye ever passing into Honduras.
BETA - There is still a threat of additional heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador for the next day or so, with the potential to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Should the system regenerate over the east Pacific, it would be assigned a new number and/or name.

CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW??? FLORIDA - In parts of Miami-Dade and Broward that are in evacuation zones, because they could be flooded by even the weakest hurricanes, nearly a third of residents believe they would be safe at home in a Category 4 storm with sustained wind of 155 mph. "I would be surprised frankly if a majority of people were familiar with the details of the forecast. I think that they rely on their local emergency management to distill the forecast into operational terms for them," such as whether to evacuate or put up shutters. "People need to be told specifically what they need to do rather than how strong it will be." Surveys show that people pay much more attention to hurricanes when an evacuation order is issued, no matter the warnings that meteorologists give.

FLORIDA - Wilma raised some lakes beyond their banks in just a few hours, inundating roads and threatening homes. The northern edge of the large storm dropped as much as 8 inches of rain last week. Pumping could continue this week to dry out several areas flooded by the hurricane. Crews already had been pumping water away from lakes BEFORE the hurricane hit due to heavy summer downpours.

ODD -
SCOTLAND - Last week's record-breaking heatwave fooled numerous species into believing winter had already passed. Bizarre and wildly fluctuating weather patterns have confused - and could yet kill - plants and animals across the area. Scientists now fear animals and plants will perish in their tens of thousands if, as predicted by some experts, the UK suffers its coldest winter for years with temperatures as low as minus 27°C. Wildlife experts fear hibernating animals may be caught out by the dramatic change in the weather after halting their preparations for the winter because of the late warm spell. Plants are already showing signs of bursting into bloom too early at a time when there are no insects around to pollinate their flowers. At the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, some trees have already started flowering as much as four months early. "For some of the plants spring has come in autumn, it seems." "We have a hazel bush here that normally flowers in February but is already starting to produce flowers in October... The previously mild winters in the past few years has meant the plant has been flowering progressively earlier, but this time it has advanced 32 days on the last year. It is possible weather has reset the plant's internal rhythms." A number of other species have also shown unusual activity this year. Wych hazel bushes, which normally flower in early winter, are already bursting with catkins several weeks early. Rhododendron bushes are also still blooming in the unseasonably warm autumn, nearly two months after they should have lost their flowers at the end of summer. Some plants will be hit hard in the coming winter freeze. Other species have been displaying baffling behaviour that even scientists are struggling to understand. Bird-watchers have spotted strange behaviour in migrating geese arriving in Scotland after flying south from Iceland for the winter. The pink-footed geese have been leaving their roosts beside estuaries in south-east Scotland much later in the day than usual, even going out to search for food at night. "This is the first season we have had reports of the pink-footed geese moving in such a strange way. They are leaving their roosts in the evening and going inland, which is completely the opposite to what they usually do as they return to their roosts in the evening. They normally only do this when there is a full moon but there hasn't been one, so it is difficult to understand what is causing this."

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1895- a 6.7 quake struck Charleston, Missouri.
In 1970 - a 7.0 quake struck New Guinea, 5 killed.
In 2002 – an earthquake struck the village of San Giuliano di Puglia in the Apennine mountains 225 km southeast of Rome, killing 26 children and one teacher in an elementary school that collapsed.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 30, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.4 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
6.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

TRINIDAD, GRENADA, VENEZUELA - A 5.5 earthquake rattled the area late Friday, but there were no immediate reports of injury or damage. The temblor struck at about 6:30 p.m. The quake was centered about 45 miles off the coast of Trinidad, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The latest quake came just days after a magnitude 4.9 temblor jolted Trinidad and Grenada on Monday.

RESTLESS VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - As of the 28th of October, there has been some seismic activity at Ruapehu. The lake temperature, which had been falling from a high of 38 degrees C several weeks ago, has started to rise again.
ALASKA - As of the 29th of October, elevated seismic activity below young volcanic vents on Tanaga Island continues. Since October 24 they have observed weak, nearly continuous volcanic tremor in the vicinity of Takawangha volcano, of the Tanaga volcano cluster. This is the first time that tremor of this sort has been observed in the volcanic cluster since the seismic network was installed in 2003. The daily number of small earthquakes has continued to diminish from its peak in early October, but is still above background.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KAI-TAK was 259 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam. This system will make landfall in northern Vietnam and dissipate over northern Indochina. ( path forecast map )

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Beta was about to make landfall in Nicaragua this morning. Although a powerful Category 2, Beta is a small hurricane. She will bring storm surges and torrential rain to Nicaragua and Honduras. It is possible that whatever is left of Beta in a few days could at some point lead to regeneration in the Pacific. Satellite image.
NICARAGUA has ordered the evacuation of a coastal city after Hurricane Beta changed course and threatened to become a Category Three storm. Authorities in north-eastern Puerto Cabezas fear there will not be enough time to evacuate all of the city's 60,000 inhabitants. Strong winds and heavy rain have already begun hitting Puerto Cabezas, about 400km (250 miles) north-east of the capital Managua.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WILMA - The power company in Florida has never had so many of its customers out, not even when Category 5 Hurricane Andrew roared through Miami-Dade County in 1992. Bewildered executives are pondering places where severe and inconsistent damage by Wilma felled about 10,000 of the company's poles - more than any during Florida's recent spate of storms. Teams of forensics experts are studying damage to substations where flying debris wrapped itself around equipment, knocking out power to thousands at a time. "We haven't seen this before," about the substation damage. "This is an oddity. It's going to take us months to understand what happened and why." THE STORM IS CONFOUNDING ONE OF THE COUNTRY'S MOST EXPERIENCED HURRICANE TEAMS, leaving officials to toss out suggestions of tornadoes, headwinds and microbursts. "You're not going to get that kind of damage from a weakening storm." "We've had very weird situations here where concrete poles have been, completely unencumbered by anything, snapped in two." "We think we had SOME STRANGE WEATHER PHENOMENA BEYOND THE HURRICANE." (photo of metal transmission poles which Wilma bent like blades of grass)
Wilma inflicted heavy damage on South Florida, but it wasn't that powerful - blowing through Miami-Dade and Broward with Category 1 sustained winds generally below 85 mph. That's the preliminary assessment of hurricane scientists, who are just beginning to study a storm that darkened more than 80 percent of South Florida homes, closed schools and many businesses for at least a week, and caused brutal devastation in some areas, knocking down power poles, ripping sides off buildings and shattering countless storm-resistent windows. This contrast between minimal hurricane winds and severe pockets of extreme damage might mean brief, devastating winds called microbursts touched down in some places. Thousands of thick concrete and wooden poles, supposedly designed to withstand winds of 119 miles, collapsed during Wilma. The utility reported the major collapses of poles occurred in random, isolated areas and they believe an unusual force felled the poles. ''I'm very curious whether there were some tornadoes or microbursts moving through the area.'' But there is no proof of tornadoes spinning out of Wilma. "Did they have tornadoes all over Dade County and nobody saw them?'' Microbursts can cause random patterns of utter devastation. ''Damage is caused by peak winds. It doesn't matter how long they last.'' Another factor could have been Wilma coming in from the southwest. Most hurricanes move over the flat surface of the ocean and arrive on shore with a relatively steady wind, but Wilma, moving in over Florida's southwest coast and then the Everglades, was hitting structures and dips, creating uneven swirls of wind and perhaps picking up more debris along the way than an Atlantic storm. In fact, the 241 substations knocked out by the storm suffered primarily because of debris blown on them. By the time it reached South Florida, Wilma was also UNCOMMONLY DRY FOR A HURRICANE: It dumped only three-fourths of an inch at Miami International Airport.

INDIA - The cyclone that hit the Andhra coast on Friday afternoon wreaked havoc in at least five districts and claimed 12 lives as it unleashed torrential rains and strong gales. Hundreds of houses have been damaged and about 100 tanks have breached in the affected areas. About 40,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas. This is the third time in the last six weeks that rains have taken a heavy toll of life and caused widespread damage across the state. The rain threw normal life out of gear, disrupted road and rail traffic, and caused extensive crop damage.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
INDIA - At least 50 people died and more were feared killed when a passenger train derailed and toppled into swirling floodwaters in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh early today. The floodwaters came from an overflowing reservoir nearby. The reservoir had been hit by flashfloods caused by rains which have swamped southern India for more than a week. Some people were still alive in the coaches, "but if they come out they will be swept away". Television pictures showed brown muddy waters swirling around the wreckage, with passengers waiting to be rescued standing on top of some of the carriages which had not been fully submerged.
INDIA - One after the other, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata have crumbled in the face of concentrated bursts of rain that destroyed civic infrastructure, left thousands marooned for days and reduced local weathermen to bumbling fools. Waist-high water, submerged runways, aircrafts skidding, deadly landslides, flooded homes, 150,000 displaced citizens and over 1,000 people killed: relentless assaults from the rains have caused havoc across India’s urban hubs in the last three months. The amounts of rain are 944 mm in Mumbai, 593 mm in Bangalore, 420 mm in Chennai. Until July 26th's cloudburst, Mumbai had never experienced 944 mm of rain in 24 hours for about 500 years. Until last week, Bangalore’s record for maximum rain in October was 522 mm in 1956. Weathermen are still searching for data on the last time it rained 270 mm in a span of six hours in Chennai. And in Vishakapatnam, it took a fortnight for a flight to take off or land after flooded runways transformed the airport into a lake. Excess rainfall is the result of a peculiar phenomenon. “There is high moisture level which bursts at particular areas because of compression created by excess heat on ground and from the atmosphere. We have been witnessing sudden bursts of rainfall in certain regions in the past few years.” India figures among the top 10 contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. And carbon emissions from congested cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore are much higher than rural areas. “The increase in green house gas emissions like carbon dioxide and methane (caused by vehicular traffic, fossil fuel burning and deforestation) have a definite impact on monsoon rains." “Natural drainage systems have been built over or modified in all urban areas which is what caused the flooding in all the metros. The high density of population only adds to the problem. These are the problems that we can control.”

JAMAICA - There were more reports of flooding in St. James as heavy rains continued to lash sections of the parish Friday. While some persons saw only flood waters, huge boulders were washed into one yard trapping the family.

TEXAS - SAN JOSE, DUVAL COUNTY - A twister was accompanied by heavy rains and hail that left a trail of damage in its wake. Throughout Duval County you'll find trees inside homes, trees on cars, and trees split in half. Trailer homes leveled, trees uprooted, power lines down, buildings blown over.

AVALANCHE -
On October 20th in the Himalayas furious blizzards set off a series of avalanches. Seven French mountaineers disappeared with 11 Nepalese climbers when a wall of snow thundered into their base camp on the Kanguru peak. Only four of the 22-strong expedition survived. "I have never seen anything like it," said one of the Nepalese porters who dug his way out of the snow."There was a sudden loud noise and within seconds we were blown to the side. We were lucky. The others disappeared." It was the worst ever single loss of life in the mountains. "The conditions had been perfect and there was absolutely no sign that the weather was changing. I was watching my barometer. But on the Wednesday heavy snow began falling, which didn't let up for around 36 hours." A distressed French trekker who had been near the area where the avalanches struck " was really shaken and ashen-faced and told us that he heard avalanches coming off Kanguru peak in REGULAR INTERVALS." The avalanche dragged the climbers more than 100 metres down the mountain in a steep gorge.

MARS - This weekend, Mars comes closer to Earth than it will again for another 13 years. Rising in the east after sunset, Mars looks like an intense pumpkin-colored star. A new dust storm has erupted on Mars, big and bright enough to see through backyard telescopes. Some longtime observers say it's the most intense they've ever seen. On Oct. 28th the billowing cloud assumed the shaped of a giant tentacled octopus.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1983 - a 6.9 quake struck Turkey, more than 1342 killed, 50 villages completely destroyed.
In 2003 – An army of 13,000 firefighters struggled to contain the worst wildfires in California in years. Twenty people die and thousands of homes were destroyed.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.

Saturday, October 29, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 WINDWARD ISLANDS
5.3 PAKISTAN

CHINA - One man in his 60s was killed and another injured in a 4.4 earthquake in Pingguo County, Bose City of south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Thursday. The man was having dinner together at home with other members of the family when the earthquake struck at 7:19 p.m. and he was killed by a boulder falling from the mountain near his home.

PAKISTAN - Pakistan's military estimates that about a third of the homeless from the October 8th quake live in remote mountain areas where winter weather will be severe. The United Nations has warned that thousands of people could die from exposure or cold-related illnesses unless they get at least temporary shelter sturdy enough to withstand the harsh Himalayan winter. Snow is already falling on mountain peaks, and at night temperatures drop far below freezing in villages. As survivors struggle to find warm shelter, prices for essential goods are rising fast. Many people are going into debt just trying to feed themselves. Outside Muzaffarabad, in the Jhelum Valley, villagers say the price of rice has more than tripled since the quake. Survivors are making tents themselves, some with dried cornstalks and old plastic sacks that can't stop the freezing wind. The children are coughing, and colder weather is just a few weeks away. So they tried to rig up some insulation: a thin layer of foil packaging taken from Mexican-style snacks from Germany.

VOLCANOES -
PAKISTAN - Fear has gripped the inhabitants of Alai where landslides in the adjoining Chel Mountain have triggered speculations of an impending volcanic eruption. A team of geologists visited the site this week and said that there was no volcanic activity in the area but called for a second look at the site to carry out a thorough study before giving a final verdict. "We would like to see the fissures and cracks which people say have been caused by the supposed volcanic activity, the water which, they say, has changed its colour and the smoke, which they say, is coming out from the mountain.” Geologists said that one area that had developed fissures seemed dangerous. “That did not look good to me.” They added that the area was a high-risk zone and mountains that had soft composition could pose serious threat to people due to frequent jolts and landslides.

WASHINGTON, MT. ST. HELENS - Geologists say the grumbling mountain is going through a 25-year eruption cycle, but its explosive energy seems to be petering out. It did go through two relatively big explosions this year, Jan. 16 and March 8. Lately, the mountain has occasionally given off plumes from eruptive activity, mostly white steam and black dust. When they become substantial enough, the black dust can become hazardous to airplanes because it is hot enough to melt cockpit windshields. As the months and years go by since the 1980 big one, geologists see the seismic energy fading. Gas emissions have been remaining low, suggesting the energy of the underlying magma is fading away.

Vast sheets of prehistoric lava some 250 million years ago were probably caused by meteorites, according to U.S. scientists. The huge volume of magma in the lava sheets might have caused global changes in climate that made Earth inhospitable to all but the hardiest species. A meteorite with a diameter of less than a mile could dent the Earth's crust enough to weaken it. "There's no reason it couldn't happen again."

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm KAI-TAK was 331 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam. ( Projected path )

1 in the Indian Ocean -
Cyclone 04B was 411 nmi ESE of Bombay, India. Has made landfall near Ongole, India.

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane BETA was 161 nmi SE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. The slow-moving, category 1 Beta continues to batter Providencia Island with damaging winds, torrential rainfall and high surf. Extensive damage has occurred to homes but there are still no communications with residents. Rainfall may exceed 25 inches. Beta could become a strong category 2 or even 3 hurricane before it makes landfall along the east coast of Nicaragua. Some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Cuba, Florida and portions of the SE U.S by the middle of next week.

MAURITIUS - is forecasting about 10 cyclones or tropical storms in the southwestern Indian Ocean in 2005/6. The tiny island of 1.2 million people, located off the east coast of Africa, is prone to cyclones between November and mid-May, peaking in January and February. The impact of cyclonic rains on the sugar crop is a major concern in Mauritius. An economic mainstay, sugar is harvested from June to December. Storm formations would be mainly in the region of Diego Garcia and at least one was expected to develop in the Mozambique Channel. "There is a strong likelihood that at least a couple of formations could develop into severe tropical cyclones and reach very high intensity, with winds blowing at 250 kmph (155 mph)." Observations from the meteorological station also showed the possibility of torrential rains and high temperatures during the summer.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
AUSTRALIA - Wild thunderstorms lashed south-east Queensland again overnight. More than 23,000 lightning strikes were recorded, with more than 400 hitting in 15 minutes.One brick home in Brisbane's north was struck by a massive bolt of lightning about 9.15pm (AEST). The owner thought terrorists had struck, as his ceiling crumbled on top of him, walls collapsed and doors were blown off their hinges. "I thought it was a bomb. I didn't think about lightning...All of a sudden there was an almighty explosion and it threw me across the bed. The place was full of dense black smoke and I got out of bed and thought the place was on fire. I tried to put the light on and put my arm straight through the wall because it blew the wall out." The State Emergency Services controller said he had never seen anything like it.

HEAT -
FRANCE - The tail–end of Hurricane Wilma is the cause of steady offshore 60 kph winds from the south, and temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday of 21, 20 and 22 degrees are expected, a whole six degrees above normal. "This season's weather in Paris is not being normal. One of my elderly neighbors guessed that the last fall when it was similar was in 1985 – so, scientifically, it only happens once every 20 years."

UNITED KINGDOM - October 27 was the hottest day ever recorded there. The temperature at Aultbea, on the banks of Loch Ewe, peaked at 21.2C. It beat the British record of 20.3C for the previously hottest 27 October, which was recorded in London in 1888. Similar soaring temperatures were seen throughout Scotland, with Glasgow, Edinburgh, Inverness, the Moray coast and the Scottish Borders all exceeding 20C - HIGHLY UNUSUAL for the second half of October. In central London, the mercury rose to 21.5C in the afternoon. There has been a wind but even the wind is very warm. The average temperature in Scotland for this time of year is normally as low as 12C, but throughout the country that figure has been significantly beaten. Edinburgh's temperature hit 21C - the HIGHEST IN THE LAST TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. "For late October it is unusual to have had such a hot day. There has been an ideal wind trajectory, with the wind coming from north Africa, Spain, northern France and through England, so there's not been much of a sea tract to cool it down."

ODD -
MYSTERIOUS BOOMS ARE BACK, THIS TIME IN ISRAEL - Dozens of residents from across Israel heard unusually loud “explosions” and tremors throughout the night, but attempts to shed light on the source of the blasts has been met with uncertainty. At least one possibility has been discounted, with the country’s seismological institute saying no earthquake occurred. Police officials estimated the loud sounds were a result of sonic booms created by IDF fighter jets on their way to attacking Gaza, but the army insisted there was no unusual Air Force activity across the country overnight. Many residents said the explosions came from the direction of the sea. “Police personnel who heard the blasts themselves said they sounded like sonic booms. We still don’t know what caused the explosions. We had similar reports during the week.” Police in Haifa also received calls regarding a possible earthquake, but no damages were reported. The nighttime explosions have apparently become a routine occurrence throughout the Sharon region, north of Tel Aviv. In recent nights there have been other reports about blasts heard in the town of Herzliya, but the source of them is unclear. “It was a scary blast. The windows shook and we felt the entire house shake. The first thing that came to mind was a terror attack…we weren’t able to figure out what caused the first blast, and minutes later a second blast followed.” The blast was so powerful it knocked one door out. The owner said he thought an earthquake was behind the unusual occurrence. “It wasn’t like an explosion, but rather, the entire building shook.”

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1976 - a 7.1 quake struck West Irian, 133 killed.
In 1989 - a 5.7 quake struck Algeria.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday, October 28, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA
5.1 SOUTH OF ALASKA
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

PAKISTAN - Predictions of a second wave of death from the Oct. 8 South Asian earthquake are coming true with the confirmation that at least 22 injured people have died of tetanus.

VOLCANOES -
PACIFIC SEA FLOOR - Noisy popping rocks hauled up from the deep Pacific seafloor off northern Mexico appear to be from a very young undersea volcano. Some of the weird and scientifically valuable gas-charged, remarkably loud, volcanic rocks were first discovered in the same area in 1960, but no one had been able to find them again until now. The area is 200 miles south of San Diego near Guadalupe Island. "People don't know how many volcanoes there are off the coast here." The rocks are pretty rare. They are the only popping rocks found outside the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. How much of each gas that's found in the rocks could support or challenge theories about how the interior of the Earth is heated.

GUATEMALA - The Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala experienced a small eruption on October 26. Its October 26 eruption was quite mild compared to earlier activity. It experienced a catastrophic eruption in 1902. Another eruption in 1929 killed as many as 5,000 people.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic / Caribbean
- Tropical storm Beta is forecast to strike Nicaragua as a hurricane at about 06:00 GMT on 30 October at category 2 strength.
SAN ANDRES - Officials evacuated hundreds of tourists and residents from the Colombian island of San Andres as Tropical Storm Beta appeared on track to become the 13th hurricane of the already record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season of 23 named storms. "It may not be over with Beta, but let's hope so." Beta would be the first hurricane to hit the Colombian islands since Hurricane Cesar slammed into them in 1996, killing three people. Beta is expected to dump up to 15 inches (40 centimeters) across western Panama, Costa Rica, northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

In the Eastern North Pacific -
An area of low pressure located about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has remained nearly stationary. Although thunderstorm activity is currently limited, this system still has some potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so.
An area of disturbed weather located about 840 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for some slow development to occur during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, Tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 04B is located 120 nm northeast of Madras, India. The system is forecast to make landfall this morning and will continue tracking inland thereafter. Storm path

MEXICO - Hurricane Wilma ripped into coral reefs and damaged more than 1 million acres (500,000 hectares) of trees on the Yucatan peninsula, creating fuel for possible forest fires in the upcoming dry season. On Isla Mujeres, angry surf dragged the public beach's sand across much of the island, blocking streets and filling homes and businesses with the snowy white grains. People complained of limited access to drinking water and homes destroyed by high winds, waves and flooding. Many residents stayed on Isla Mujeres as the storm hit, ripping apart even cinderblock homes. Fishermen on Isla Mujeres said the storm scared away most of the fish. Peering into the water, a shallow reef just offshore was abandoned by sealife. "The people here fish... But now there aren't fish, so we don't do anything." On Cozumel, a larger island popular with cruise ships and divers, hundreds of tourists had been stranded for days, but most had been evacuated by Thursday. Even in Cancun, lines at makeshift airline ticket counters had nearly vanished.

FLORIDA - No official estimate has been made of Florida's agriculture losses from Wilma, but they likely will exceed $1 billion. The losses appeared to be worse than those from Hurricane Katrina earlier this year, and worse than the four hurricanes that ravaged Florida last year. (Last year's hurricanes caused $2 billion to $3 billion in damages to crops and infrastructure) Forty-percent of the citrus crop in the hurricane-affected areas in the southern part of the state appeared to be on the ground. Four sugar-processing facilities are inoperable, and many sugar cane fields have been flattened. In addition, U.S. Sugar's internal railroad suffered significant damage as locomotives and railcars were blown over, company officials said.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
AUSTRALIA - Lightning struck more than 400 times across Queensland's south-east last night in 1 and a half hours, as a large storm blacked out around 15,000 homes. Only around 40mm to 50mm of rainfall was recorded. "We are going to need a few hundred millimetres to make a difference to the dam catchment areas." Storms will continue to build in western Queensland, but the weekend will be mostly storm-free in the south-east.

INDIA - Nearly 50,000 people have been evacuated as heavy rains lashed southern India for the third straight day today, triggering floods.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - A rain-swollen river flooded a city in the northern Dominican Republic, washing away 10 houses and killing six people, including two children, officials said Wednesday.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1746 – The Peruvian cities Lima and Callao were demolished by an earthquake, killing at least 18,000.
In 1891 – An 8.4 earthquake struck the Niphon Islands in Japan, killing 10,000 people and leaving at least 300,000 homeless.
In 1983 - a 7.0 quake struck Borah Peak, Idaho, 2 killed. Felt in Idaho, Washington, Montana, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, and parts of Canada.
In 1998 – Hurricane Mitch paused over Honduras with 200 km/h winds, sweeping away bridges, flooding neighbourhoods and killing hundreds of people.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, October 27, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 PAKISTAN

VOLCANO -
PAKISTAN - Fears of a volcano pushing through the earthquake-shattered mountains of northern Pakistan have proved unfounded, geologists said. People in the remote Alai valley of North West Frontier Province had mistaken dust arising from landslides triggered by a strong aftershock on Sunday for smoke. "The dust and fog hang in the air for a while because of the cold and it triggered panic in the area" following the aftershock of 6.0 magnitude which had its epicentre near the valley. "There is no crack in the mountains, there is no eruption."

EL SALVADOR - Llamatepec Volcano is expelling gases, which could signal a new eruption. They were registering vibrations and a significant increase in seismic activity of the volcano, which had been at rest since October 21. A red alert has again been declared for 3,106 miles around Llamatepec and authorities have asked evacuated citizens to remain calm. "The mountain continues very active, expelling toxic gases, but the increasing clouds in the area do not allow close observation of the phenomenon." On October 1, over 20,000 citizens left the area with the eruption that caused two deaths.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Beta the RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON, was 111 nmi NE of Limon, Costa Rica. Torrential rains are expected in Central America - 10-15 inches across western Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. The storm is forecast strengthen to a hurricane before 48 hours and to move inland over Nicaragua in a couple of days. The government of Colombia has issued a hurricane watch in additon to the tropical storm warning already in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. Satellite Image.

Hurricane center forecasters are watching two other areas in the tropics for signs of development. Squally weather associated with a tropical wave will likely spread over the Lesser Antilles during later today and tonight. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
A weak low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Upper-level level winds appear unfavorable for additional development at this time.

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA - Several more deaths were confirmed in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from flooding caused by Tropical Storm Alpha, bringing the death toll to 26. The storm drenched the two countries, which share the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, with torrential rain on Monday [AFTER Alpha was already supposed to have been absorbed by Wilma] and caused flash floods that swept away people, houses and animals.

WILMA - FLORIDA - We expect storms to hit land and slow down from the sheer friction of their mass or the obstacles they encounter. And we expect them to do more damage on the side of the state they enter than on the side they exit. But, not Wacky Wilma. "I guess we could classify it as RARE because we don't get a lot of Category 3 hurricanes making landfall any time of year, much less in October." Wilma confused even die-hard storm chasers who were waiting in the Naples area for the Category 3 storm to make landfall. Wilma arrived at 6:30 a.m. at Cape Romano, about 20 miles south of Naples. It was just the beginning of a BIZARRE TRACK that flooded the playground of the rich, then shot the storm across the state before becoming the MOST DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE TO HIT THE FORT LAUDERDALE AREA SINCE 1950. By coming into Cape Romano instead of Naples, Wilma was now far enough south to put Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the worst spot you want to be in during a hurricane - the northeast quadrant. It is not unusual to have a hurricane in October. Wilma actually makes the ninth major storm to thrive during that month - and the seventh to hit Florida. But Wilma was also a sort of meteorological Rocky - refusing to let a land mass like the Yucatan knock her out. She behaved as if she was on steroids, intensifying from a Category 2 to a Category 5 storm overnight - ANOTHER RECORD.

1 active area in the Indian Ocean -
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 200 NM radius of 12.5N 80.9E (off the east coast of India, near Madras) within the next 12 to 24 hours. The system is moving WNW at 12 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 MB.
INDIA - The low pressure that formed about 1,000 km south of Calcutta on Tuesday, further intensified into a depression on Wednesday. The system now lies over a huge expanse of the south-west Bay of Bengal. “The depression continues to gather strength and is likely to intensify further. There is a possibility that the system would develop into a cyclone. Met officials have been poring over the radar screen and charts for the past week, with heavy rain battering Calcutta and the districts from the night of October 18 till October 23, leading to floods in many areas. A strict watch is also being kept on the Andaman Sea, the source of many a cyclone over the Bengal and Orissa coasts at this time of the year.
INDIA - Since earlier this month, the northeast monsoon has brought torrential rains to many parts of South India. In Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, a grim flood situation shows no sign of easing off. In Tamil Nadu, over 50 people have lost their lives since October 1, including at least five in the last 24 hours. The rains have also seriously damaged infrastructure, flooding the Dharmapuri-Bangalore highway and causing breaches to develop in Srirangam dam in Trichy. Parts of Karnataka, too, are experiencing their WETTEST OCTOBER IN NEARLY 50 YEARS. For the last three days, two villages sandwiched between branches of the river Coleron in Perambalur district have been cut off by floods, leaving over 2,000 people marooned. The villages are completely inundated for over a kilometre. For 40 years, residents have come and gone from the villages by walking across the dry river bed.

FROM WILMA - HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING /SNOW -
VERMONT - An early season snowstorm dumped up to 20 inches of heavy snow in the mountains, and left 40,000 customers without power. "This is the worst fall snow storm damage we've seen since October of 1987. The storm damage is far worse than the ice storm of '98, and when the damage is tallied up, this will be ONE OF THE FOUR OR FIVE WORST STORMS IN RECENT MEMORY." Snowstorms in October are not unusual in Vermont "but to get this much snow this early is A BIT UNUSUAL."

EASTERN U.S. The early nor'easter fed by Hurricane Wilma dumped heavy rain and up to 20 inches of wet snow from New England to West Virginia, knocking out power to tens of thousands, closing schools and elevating rivers. Power was restored to many in affected areas but thousands remained without Wednesday morning. "We had a perfect storm, unfortunately. We had heavy, wet snow like wet cement on top of trees that still had their leaves on." Dozens of schools were closed in Vermont, western Maryland and West Virginia. The storm was reinforced by Wilma's travels up the Atlantic Coast. Wilma's spinning action pulled down cold air from Canada and mixed it with the hurricane's subtropical moisture. "It was a thin band of snow, and if you were under that band, you got pounded." The storm churned 20-foot seas that prompted commercial fishermen to stay on solid ground. It has been the WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD in Providence, R.I., with 15.07 inches of rain. Worcester, Mass., also TOPPED ITS OCTOBER RECORD with 15.52 inches so far this month.

CONNECTICUTT - High winds and intermittent rain sent trees falling and caused power outages yesterday, keeping public safety workers busy and BREAKING THE OCTOBER MONTHLY RECORD FOR RAINFALL in Fairfield County. The new October record is 11.35 inches of rain, breaking the 1952 monthly record for rainfall of 10.72 inches.

NEW YORK - The tail of Florida-bashing Hurricane Wilma has manifested itself in New York as howling wind and torrential rain. "It's autumn, it's New York and these things can happen," he said, "but the amount of rain they have had here has been FREAKISH." Fifteen hours of it, to be precise, to add to the 18 inches that had fallen in the past fortnight.
ALBANY, NEW YORK - More than 8 inches of precipitation, including a little snow, make this the area's fourth-wettest October on record. They even got some snow -"This has been VERY STRANGE, considering a couple of weeks ago it was almost 80 degrees." They recorded 8.23 inches of rain for the month, just over a half-inch behind the second wettest, October 1855, when 8.93 inches of rain fell. October 1955 had 8.83 inches of rain. The wettest by far was October 1869, when 13.48 inches of rain were recorded in Albany. The rain and snow were the result of a nor'easter that hugged the coast. In addition to the moisture it picked up, there was a stream of moisture being thrown toward the Northeast by Hurricane Wilma that was speeding by hundreds of miles out to sea.

FLORIDA - Residents in Lake County are bracing themselves for flooding from Wilma to reach them by the end of the week. Areas along the St. Johns River in Seminole County are flooded. As that water drains, it is expected to go north into flood-prone areas like Astor, in Lake County. Astor saw minor flooding during Wilma, but its highest water levels are expected by the end of the week.

HEAT -
Today is set to be the WARMEST OCTOBER October 27 IN BRITAIN ON RECORD, weather forecasters predicted Wednesday. Temperatures are set to soar to 21 degrees centigrade as a mini-heatwave hits the whole of the UK. The current record for October 27 is 20.3 degrees centigrade, which was measured in 1888 in London. With clear skies coming up from France, there will be plenty of sun and temperatures will soar." This month is set to be one of the five warmest Octobers on record.

Hurricane Wilma's rude visit Monday was followed by another EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT - a cold front. A RARE and powerful October cold front. The Hurricane Wilma cleanup began on PERHAPS THE MOST EXTRAORDINARY POST-HURRICANE WEATHER DAY IN RECORDED SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HISTORY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO RECORD LEVELS. Even meteorologists were buzzing about the hurricane/cold front double-whammy. The lowest high temperature ever recorded in Fort Myers on Oct. 25 was 72, in 1937 — that is, until Tuesday. Tuesday's high was a record 71, 14 degrees below the average high of 85 for the day. The low was 56, two degrees short of tying the record low of 54, set in 1982. The predicted low for Wednesday morning was 52, which would tie a record. Today's low temperature record was set in 1990.
FLORIDA - Temperatures in most of Central Florida will once again drop into the 40s as UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE in the area. "The one thing that is very unusual about the temperatures this morning is that they are all the way in the 40s. Average lows generally run in the 60s this time of year. Current temperatures are well below that." Temperatures dropped down to 39 degrees in parts of Ocala Wednesday morning and a 47 degree reading was recorded in Orlando. The record in Orlando for Oct. 26 is 47 degrees. "It is going to be chilly here for at least the next several days. Today, it feels like a January day." A general northern flow in Central Florida's air pattern will keep cooler weather in the area at least until the weekend.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1985 - a 5.9 quake struck Algeria, 6 killed.
In 1993 – Brush fires in southern California destroyed at least 800 homes.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.6 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 XIZANG

TROPICAL STORMS -

HURRICANE WILMA - About 6 million Floridians are without power today, two days after Hurricane Wilma plowed across the peninsula, and some could be in the dark for weeks. Longtime residents and veterans of past hurricanes appeared surprised by Wilma, which roared ashore early Monday with 125 mph winds, storm surge flooding and heavy rain. By Tuesday evening, Wilma was over the Atlantic, with top winds of 85 mph, was located 205 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Forecasters don't expect Wilma to make a second landfall in the United States, although it could scrape across southern Newfoundland in Canada this afternoon. The storm was bringing more rain to the water-logged U.S. Northeast, still recovering from widespread flooding earlier this month.

CUBA - No fatalities occurred in Cuba, even though Wilma was in the vicinity of the island for 10 days. In Mariel, a port east of Havana, the residents were watching as the huge waves were breaking against the shoreline. ''I've never seen waves like this." ''The ocean is furious, as if it wants to take back the land." (photo)

HURRICANE KATRINA - there were 22 million tons of waste created by the hurricane. It will take at least 3.5 million truckloads to haul it away.

FIJI - There is a higher chance of Fiji being hit by a Tropical cyclone this year compared to last year and the Weather Office is bracing itself for the worst. Fiji will be entering the cyclone season with an El Nino and a La Nina condition. This means that there will be a neutral phase which increases the chances of a tropical cyclone hitting them. The dry spell that they are facing right now will be short lived with the beginning of the wet weather in November.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
INDONESIA - The death toll from crushing landslides that smashed into two villages in Indonesia's Aceh province last week has reached 20, with around 250 people injured. The affected area is in the south of Aceh, a province on the northern tip of Sumatra island where the rainy season is in full swing. Many landslides in Indonesia are exacerbated by illegal logging that strips away natural barriers to such disasters.

BANGLADESH - Millions across Bangladesh Monday heaved a sigh of relief as rains stopped after intermittent downpour for sixth consecutive day, which the meteorologists termed "UNUSUAL". The rains snapped rail and road communication, damaged winter crops and 'aman' paddy, and washed away shrimps and fish from pisciculture farms across the country. Stagnant water at a number of places, both in urban and rural areas, paralysed daily life. The sudden spate of rain since Wednesday caused floods in many new areas, forcing thousands of people to leave their homesteads. Around 10 fishermen have been missing in the river Meghna from Sunday morning, probably because of the storm that hit the region in the morning. Generally, such unusual weather moves away within 24 to 41 hours, but in this case it will take more than that because it moves very slowly. "So much rain is unusual in late autumn, and it might have an adverse effect on the environment, such as the premature arrival of bitter cold."

SOUTH INDIA - Karnataka and Tamil Nadu continue to reel under floods, with Bangalore experiencing its WETTEST OCTOBER IN NEARLY 50 YEARS. The city had received 52.5 cm of rain by Tuesday afternoon, a new record for October. Authorities have closed the schools and colleges for two days. The power supply has been hit as 25 power transformers were damaged by the rain.

There is no respite for South and Eastern INDIA. More rain is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and the Northeastern states. Light snow is expected in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. With an active Northeast monsoon covering the entire peninsular India with heavy rain, the Stanley reservoir at Mettur has been receiving an inflow of more than two lakh cusecs for the FIRST TIME IN 44 YEARS, leading to water discharge and Cauvery overflowing in some areas. The water level is 121.5 feet against the dam’s capacity of 120 feet and officials have issued flood warning in villages on the banks. Another low pressure area is developing over Bay of Bengal. If it develops into a full-fledged cyclone, rain over South and East India will be many times more than the last week. A trough extends from north coastal Andhra Pradesh to sub-Himalayan West Bengal. There is another trough in the middle troposphere which is interacting with the first one, bringing rains in the Northeast.

VIETNAM - 57 people have perished in floods ravaging the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam and in the central region over the last several weeks. Thousands of hectares of rice and some dykes have been damaged. Thousands of people have been displaced by the floods that regularly hit the Mekong region.

NEVADA - Dark clouds that began moving into the South Shore Monday afternoon unleashed a wrath of rain, lightning and at least an inch of hail. The storm was a product of warm temperatures in the lower atmosphere that clashed with cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere, following a trough that moved into the Sierra via the Southern California coast.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1969 - a 5.6 quake struck Yugoslavia, 20 killed and 65,000 homeless.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS

HIMALAYAS - Landslides tumbled across the zone of the Oct. 8 earthquake, dramatizing not only the power of one of nature's great killers, but also how humans have brought tragedy upon themselves through massive deforestation and other ecological assaults on the mighty Himalayas. In Pakistan's quake-hit region, landslides swept away uncounted numbers of homes and severed roads, cutting off hundreds of communities. Mountain slopes were shorn away, exposing gray earth and rubble that still emit great clouds of dust two weeks after the quake. Aftershocks continue to trigger new landslides. "If there had been more trees we would not have lost as much. It is our mistake. "
BABIES DYING OF COLD, says doctor in quake zone - Chilling stories are emerging to back grim predictions of a second wave of earthquake deaths in Pakistan related to a lack of aid supplies and shelter.

VOLCANOES -
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, ECUADOR - A magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred on Saturday, apparently around the time that the Sierra Negra volcano begun to erupt on Isabela, the largest of the Galapagos Islands.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
HURRICANE WILMA - swamped and pounded southern Florida yesterday, killing four as it shattered high-rise windows, uprooted trees, destroyed mobile homes and cut power to almost 7 million people. It was a surprisingly strong Category 3 hurricane, having fed on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico after killing 17 people in a rampage through the Caribbean. Officials in Marathon said residents were stranded on rooftops while leaking propane tanks and gas lines caused small explosions. Wilma, a sprawling hurricane that covered much of Florida, was the eighth hurricane to strike the state in 15 months, an unprecedented display of nature's fury that climatologists say is the result of the Atlantic having swung back into a period of heightened storm activity that could last 20 years. Wilma was the strongest storm to hit the Miami area since August 1992.
Wilma should continue moving northeastward, along the way absorbing Tropical Depression Alpha and colliding with another weather system heading into New England from the west early today. "It's almost A BIZARRE-TYPE SITUATION. It's NOT SOMETHING YOU SEE EVERY DAY. It's a three-way coming together of systems." A high wind warning was issued for the Massachusetts coast, where Wilma will bring sustained winds of 40 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph. A wind advisory was issued for Rhode Island and central Massachusetts. In Maine, the storm was expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of rain, bringing Portland closer to a record rainfall for the month. “We see these kinds of October storms every five or ten years in Pennsylvania. ”
Wind gusts today will near 40 mph in Philadelphia, 50 mph in New York City and near 60 mph in Boston. In fact, it is not out of the question that hurricane-force winds will be felt along the New England coastline late today. Beach erosion, rip currents and tidal flooding are also likely along the East Coast today and Wednesday. And to top off the onslaught of bad weather, cold air will funnel southward from Canada on the west side of this storm. This will lead to rain changing to snow in many mountain ranges through the Northeast.
"Now for those of you who like apocalyptic visions, there is the thinnest of thinnest of possibilities that the northeast could see a once-in-a-century “perfect storm” develop over the next few days. Here’s the scenario, as unlikely as it is: The nor’easter barrels into the East Coast and butts heads with Wilma, which has not weakened much from its fury in Florida. It would turn into a super monster storm, much like the one immortalized in the book and movie, “The Perfect Storm.” But there’s a reason those perfect storms happen so rarely. “Nor’easters are cold and hurricanes are warm. They don’t like each other. It’s rare for the two disturbances to merge body and soul. What is much more common is what’s going to be happening here, where the tropical storm is weakening and feeds moisture into the nor’easter.”
CANADA - The Maritimes are getting ready for a pounding from the remnants of hurricane Wilma, as forecasters predict that southern areas may be lashed by wind gusts of up to 120 km/h and up to 70 mm of rain. "Now this one will be more potent than usual. We're expecting weather to deteriorate on Tuesday starting in the morning over Nova Scotia." The forecast rain was more bad news for New Brunwick, a province that's already had an unusually wet fall. "Already for the month of October, we have reached our normal rainfall amounts which is near 100 mm. Some regions of extreme southern New Brunswick have already experienced over 170 mm of rain since the beginning of October. So we do not really need such rainfall before the end of the month."
CUBA - Waters poured over Havana's famed seawall Monday, flooding up to five blocks of city streets, as Hurricane Wilma dumped up to 22 inches of water on some parts of the island. Wilma coincided with high tide, causing an UNPRECEDENTED STORM SURGE. The flooding at some points was three-feet deep. A village called Guanimar south of Havana and Alquizar were completely under water. ''Coastal areas of Havana sometimes flood for one or two blocks - but going to G. Avenue or Linea? I have never seen floods like that, ever." There flooding was not so much from heavy rain, but from the rising sea. In Mantua, 23 inches of rain fell. Guane saw nearly 15 inches and Matahambre, 13.
"I've never seen the sea come in so far, not even in the storm of the century (in 1993), and it is still rising." "It's amazing, the streets have turned into big canals."
Wilma sparked a "rare'' tornado on the Isle of Youth.

On the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, there is no Category 6. But Hurricane Wilma this week brushed up against where a 6 would be if the scale were logically extrapolated to include another category. And hurricanes are getting stronger, apparently fueled by global warming. Researchers expect that trend to continue. A Category 1 storm begins at 74 mph and a Category 5 at 156 mph. On average, there is about a 20 mph increment in wind speed between the categories. An extrapolation suggests that if a Category 6 were there, it would be in the range of 176-196 mph. Hurricane Wilma, which had maximum recorded wind speeds of 175 mph, would have been on the verge of breaking into this hypothetical new category. The scale was designed to measure the amount of damage inflicted by a hurricane's winds, and beyond 156 mph, the damage begins to look about the same. "If that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered. So I think that it's immaterial what will happen with winds stronger than 156 miles per hour."

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
NEW ORLEANS - The Lower Ninth Ward saw renewed flooding Monday when a high tide pushed water up through drainage systems. Two additional pumps were turned on to remove the two feet of water.

INDIA - Rescue workers struggled to deliver food and water Monday to at least one million people living in villages cut off by floods after six days of rains in India's West Bengal state. Rescue workers ferried boatloads of rice and sugar to coastal villagers but many people remained without supplies and faced hunger and dehydration. "More than half of the two million people in four coastal districts affected by the flooding still remain marooned in the submerged villages of East Midnapore district and the Sunderbans off the Bay of Bengal." At least 14 people had died in the floods. Two rivers in the mangrove-thick Sunderbans region overflowed their banks in the past week, flooding hundreds of villages and farms.

AUSTRALIA - Hail the size of peas fell in the tropics and 100 km/h winds lashed a luxury resort island during a "UNUSUAL" outbreak of thunderstorms across Queensland yesterday. A trough system combined with cold and humid air created ideal storm conditions. The severe storms SPANNED THOUSANDS OF KILOMETRES from the tip of Queensland to south of the border into NSW. "It's not unusual to see lots of storms around but to actually HAVE THEM COVERING THAT SORT OF AREA IS UNUSUAL." More storms have been forecast for the week.
Hail stones the size of oranges have been reported in the Laidley area in south-east Queensland, as a series of severe thunderstorms moves across the south of the state. "We've had very strong lightning activity all over eastern districts, we've had golf ball-sized hail reported at Roma and we have severe thunderstorm warnings for most east coast districts."
Severe weather warnings cover the ACT, the NSW Southern Tablelands and much of the north-east of the state north of Gosford and east of Bourke. A storm just north of Newcastle was looking particularly menacing on radar, with winds of more than 125kmh predicted. There are reports of hail the size of golf balls smashing windows, damaging cars and stripping trees near the Hunter Valley. They are warning of very heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding.
The savage storms which lashed Queensland have been blamed for two road deaths and an estimated $25 million in damage to crops. On the Gold Coast, the world's tallest residential tower, Q1, was reportedly struck by lightning eight times.
Current Australia Warnings

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1981 - a 7.4 quake struck Michoacan, Mexico, 3 killed.
In 1990 - a 6.0 quake struck the Hindu Kush Region, 11 killed.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays.

Monday, October 24, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 FLORES SEA
6.0 PAKISTAN
5.9 SEA OF JAPAN
5.2 LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.6 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes. In the Aegean Islands, seismologists were concerned over what they called the "three sixes" (last Monday's 6.0 and 5.9 quakes within the space of 4 hours, and Friday's 6.0 quake) all recorded in the same region. Seismologists were on alert after Friday's quake, which was followed by intense post-seismic activity, with the strongest aftershock recorded just four minutes after the main quake, with a magnitude of 5.3. The new strong quake caused concern among the local residents. The quake had been longer in duration than any of the smaller tremblers over the past two days. Aftershocks of 3, 4 or even 5 are anticipated.

PAKISTAN - A 6.0 aftershock, the strongest yet, has hit Pakistan. A total of 25 aftershocks were recorded throughout the day and their epicenters were located in the area 30-40 km north-west of Muzaffarabad. Out of these, two aftershocks were significant. The first tremor, measuring 5.2 on the Richter Scale, hit Mansehra town in North West Frontier Povince at 0029 hours local time while the second, of 4.9 magnitude, was felt at 0544 hours. Officials dismissed as rumours reports that the epicentres of the aftershocks were shifting towards Islamabad. A total of 896 aftershocks have been recorded since the 7.6 magnitude that struck northern parts of Pakistan and Pak-occupied Kashmir on October 8th.

AFGHANISTAN - Five Afghan persons were killed and six were injured in an earthquake Sunday morning in the southeastern province of Paktika. Six villages of the area have also been partially destroyed. Since the strong earthquake in Pakistan, aftershocks have become frequent than before. In another earthquake, five persons were killed in the Afghan southern province of Zabul on Saturday.

VOLCANO -
ECUADOR'S GALAPAGOS ISLANDS - The CHICO VOLCANO on Isabela island erupted late Saturday with a powerful explosion that spewed rivers of lava and a column of steam 20km high, but the nearby main town was left unscathed by lava flows. Three lava flows were slowly making their way toward the sea but they did not threaten the town. The last time the Chico volcano erupted was in 1978. The most recent volcano eruption in the chain occurred in May on the unpopulated island of Fernandina.

NEW ZEALAND - Researchers have uncovered evidence suggesting Mt Taranaki is overdue to erupt, possibly blanketing much of the North Island in ash and disrupting power and water supplies, farming and aviation. Although the volcano has shown little or no sign of activity for two centuries, the new research suggests it has erupted at least once every 90 years on average for the past 9000 years, with a major eruption every 500 years, the last occurred in 1655. “These events have been as frequent as large-scale floods in many rivers of New Zealand and future activity from this volcano may pose a more immediate threat to the North Island that previously realised.” Current monitoring should give at least six days’ and possibly as much as a few months’ warning of an eruption. Taranaki webcam and seismometer reading.

Is it a volcano that is emitting ash and smoke ever since the deadly earthquake struck parts of Pakistan and Kashmir? This is the question being asked by those who have visited Pakistan-administered Kashmir's Muzaffarabad locality. Geo, a private local television channel, ran a video film and also interviewed some local people there on Saturday. In its bulletin, the TV channel pointed out that ash, smoke and stones had been seen coming down from a hilltop many kilometers away since the quake two weeks back. The hill has been causing landslides ever since the day of the disaster. Some people say that they saw many unfortunate people falling into fissures created by the earthquake along roads and streets in Kashmir.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma - strengthened back into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 185 km/h as it sped toward Florida Sunday night and heavy rains began to lash Key West. The Florida Keys and along the southwest coast were being warned to brace for hurricane-force winds to hit at dawn today, along with tornadoes and a surge of seawater as much as five metres high. By late Sunday night, many streets in the Keys were already awash. At least three tornadoes had been spotted in the southern half of the state. Officials in the Keys estimated late Sunday that only about 10 per cent of the island chain's 78,000 residents had complied with orders to evacuate. Wilma will be the eighth hurricane to hit Florida since July 2004 and the Keys have already been evacuated four times this year. Wilma sideswiped Cuba on Sunday, lashing it with heavy rain and strong winds, knocking down power lines, and sending storm surges flooding into coastal communities. Pictures showed extensive damage on the Yucatan, where storm surges reached the third floor of some hotels Saturday, carried away entire beaches of sand and raging winds ripped roofs and walls from buildings and toppled power and telephone lines.
Mexico is scrambling to rescue thousands of tourists trapped in stifling shelters in its hurricane-hit Caribbean beach resorts before food, water and medicine shortages cause chaos. Seven people were killed in the storm. It was not clear how many tourists were stranded but one senior police official estimated there were about 20,000 just in Cancun. Many were short of food and water and becoming increasingly frustrated on Sunday as they faced a fourth night in cramped shelters with no electricity or running water.

Tropical Storm Alpha drenched Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rain on Sunday, killing at least five people and forcing thousands from their homes, before weakening over the mountains of Hispaniola. The storm dumped as much as 15 inches (38 cm) of rain over some parts of Hispaniola. Haiti is vulnerable to floods and mudslides because much of the impoverished country has been stripped of trees. The center of the storm had moved offshore from Hispaniola and was about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Great Inagua island in the Bahamas. Forecasters said there was a chance Alpha could briefly regain tropical storm strength before dissipating.
Tropical depression Alpha will move away from the southern Bahamas Sunday night, then out into the open Atlantic today. Global models all agree that the depression will be rapidly overtaken by and will merge with the expanding circulation associated with Wilma, within 24-36 hours.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

FLORIDA - A Saturday morning downpour and the flooding that followed caught many Broward County residents off guard, leaving them to wonder, What's going to happen when Wilma comes through? The storm was caused by offshore flow, or moisture blown in off the Atlantic. Wilma's presence in the Gulf created the conditions that helped the storm develop, and problems arose when the storm came over Broward and stopped moving. Up to eight inches of rain was dumped within a 2-mile radius, turning city streets into no wake zones and sending water into people's homes. In Oakland Park, the combination of flash floods and high tide maxed out the storm drains. "Interaction between Wilma a cold front over central Florida will allow rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches between late Sunday and Monday afternoon... mainly north of a line from Naples to West Palm Beach.

HAWAII - was expecting high surf, strong winds and heavy rain this past weekend as a large swell was set to produce wave faces as high as 30 feet on the North Shore Saturday and Sunday while a storm settled over the state, bringing heavy showers and strong tradewinds. "It will be very rough and ugly." The weather service issued a high-surf warning for the north-facing shores of all islands. The North Shore swell, the biggest of the season so far, was generated by a large storm off Alaska. Forecasters also warned residents that surges are likely for harbors in Kahului and Hilo. And wind will bring surf up to advisory heights for the state's east-facing shores, with 14-foot faces expected, an unusual swell for this time of year.

ITALY - Six people were killed as torrential rain battered southern Italy overnight, demolishing a bridge, sweeping away cars and derailing a Eurostar train. 20 passengers were injured when six carriages of a Eurostar train were derailed after a landslide swept away the earth beneath the rail tracks, leaving one carriage overhanging a chasm. The deluge was described as an "exceptional climatic event which can only happen once in a hundred years. In just three hours in a limited area last night we had 161 millimetres of rain – as much as the Apulia region gets in a whole year." Many roads, houses and factories in the area have been flooded. Fields of vegetables and olive trees were completely submerged but officials said it was too soon to put a value on the damage.

ENGLAND - Motorists were warned to take care as heavy rain and high winds were set to sweep across the country. The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning in England and Wales and localised flooding is expected.

NEW ZEALAND - The North Island's east coast was pummelled with the kind of rainfall that drops only once every 100 years on Friday night, stranding whole towns and cutting electricity and water supplies. Areas surrounding Gisborne, particularly Tolaga Bay, face a big clean-up after more than 300mm of rain fell in 24 hours in some places. Over 300mm was exceptional rainfall. "Statistically, it's a one-in-100-year event, but as we know, we can conceivably get them two or three years in a row." Electricity and phone blackouts, major slips and the closure of more than a dozen roads continued to cause problems for the cleanup.

INDIA - Bengal braced up for another 48 hours of rain, even as six people perished and lakhs were affected in the uninterrupted showers due to a low pressure belt off the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The Mets department's forecast of a dry spell from last evening came to naught as rain continued for the fourth successive day. Met officials said they were caught unawares by an unexpected change in the weather. ''As per the forecast, the existing low-pressure formation over Andhra and south Orissa coast has weakened. But another feeble low-pressure line extending from Arunachal to Tamil Nadu along Gangetic Bengal gained strength, and led to the fresh spell of rain. We cannot rule out rain continuing for a few more days. It all depends on the low pressure zone over Gangetic West Bengal." Co-existence of such low-pressure zones troughs is common around this time of the year and may be due to global climate change.

BANGLADESH - Unusual autumn rain in Bangladesh has damaged rail links and stranded thousands of commuters but may help crops. The rain has inundated large areas of southwestern and northeastern Bangladesh over the past four days. The rain damaged vegetable crops in some parts of the country. They recorded 50 mm (two inches) of rainfall on average across the country in six hours to 5 p.m. More rain was expected over the next couple of days. Monsoon floods kill hundreds of people and make millions homeless every year in Bangladesh and neighbouring states in India. But heavy rain in autumn is unusual.

SNOW -
NEPAL - Seven French and 11 Nepalese members, 18 out of a 22-strong climbing team, were killed in a snowstorm in the mountains of northwest Nepal. The four surviving Nepalese members of the team were rescued by helicopter as rescuers took advantage of a break in the weather four days after the group was reported stranded in a snowstorm during their attempt on Mount Kangru in the Manang near Annapurna. The 18 team members died on the mountain while four Nepalese, who were staying outside the tents, managed to save their own lives.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1927 - a 7.1 quake struck Chichagof Island, Alaska.
In 1980 - a 7.0 quake struck Central Mexico, 300 dead and 150,000 homeless.
In 1995 – A strong earthquake with numerous aftershocks jolted the south-western Chinese province Yunnan, killing at least 14.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 23, 2005 -
Short version today.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.8 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 BANDA SEA
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma - Storm surges have reached as high as the third story of some hotels as Hurricane Wilma batters Mexico's popular Cancun resort area. The Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon. Even though slightly weakened, it felled trees and tore off roofs as thousands stayed in emergency shelters. Winds of 140mph (225km/h) have damaged buildings considered hurricane-proof. "This is the equivalent of having four or five hurricanes of this size pass over one after the other, given the amount of time we have been suffering hurricane-force winds. Never in the history of Quintana Roo have we had a storm like this. The water is crossing over from the sea into the lagoon." The spectacle has remained both dramatic and unchanging for hours, with an increasing amount of debris blown from buildings as they slowly succumb to the storm.
Huge waves are crashing onto Cuba's westernmost tip, and heavy rains were reported to have cut off several small communities. Wilma is expected to linger over the Yucatan peninsula until early on Monday, currently with category 2 strength. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Wilma could again become a major hurricane today. The wind field is forecast to expand as it accelerates and crosses the Florida Peninsula. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
The stalled storm had battered the Mexican coastline for more than 24 hours and was expected to hang over the area for at least another 24 hours, raising the risk of disaster. "It's a monster, it is roaring all the time." Wilma dumped 590mm of rain on Isla Mujeres island yesterday, an UNPRECEDENTED DOWNPOUR for Mexico. "We are talking about A RECORD HURRICANE AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED." The storm was expected to dump between 250mm and 500 mm of rain across the Yucatan and western Cuba. Some areas could get up to 1000 mm. Wilma had an unusually wide diameter of 800km.
More from Mexico - Two people died from heart attacks and a 40-year-old man was killed when a tree fell on him as he stepped outside his house. Seven other people were seriously injured when a gas tank exploded in Playa del Carmen. Schools, hospitals, hotels and highways were substantially damaged. "A LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION WITHOUT PRECEDENT." There was particular concern for the residents of Cozumel, an island hammered by the storm, where only half of the 150,000 people heeded evacuation orders.

Tropical Storm Alpha developed overnight and gathered strength over the Caribbean Sea. The centre of the storm was located about 55 nmi SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. It's current track would take the center of the storm near or over the island of Hispaniola, shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, early today, bringing significant rainfall. It is possible that the cyclone will dissipate as it crosses the island. If it survives into the Atlantic, it will be overtaken by the circulation of Hurricane Wilma in about 36 hours, therefore the official forecast calls for the circulation to dissipate within 48 hours. Alpha is the 22nd named storm of this RECORD-BREAKING SEASON. Alpha BROKE THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY RECORD set in 1933 and marked the FIRST TIME THAT FORECASTERS HAVE RUN OUT OF NAMES and had to resort to the Greek alphabet for additional names. Alpha was expected to drop torrents of rain over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands, then turn out to sea and not threaten the U.S. mainland.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

TASMANIA - Landslides and road closures have caused traffic headaches along the north coast of Tasmania, with motorists stopped in their tracks as police warn of rising floodwaters. Residents in the town of Penguin, west of Devonport, may be forced to evacuate as police monitor the wall of a dam. Rain is expected to continue tonight in northern and eastern Tasmania, and flood warnings have been issued.

INDIA - Tens of thousands of people are marooned by floods in eastern India after three days of torrential rain that killed at least 10 people. The unseasonal rains came after the June-September monsoon, which this year triggered severe flooding in other parts of India such as the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra in the west and Assam in the north-east. Relief officials warned conditions could worsen for hundreds of thousands of people in the Sunderbans region, where two rivers were close to bursting their banks. Rains also hit Kolkata, eastern India's main trading hub, which was flooded for a second day.

DISCUSSION BOARD-
Pipa Talk Forum - earth changes, current news, diseases, green living, premonitions, predictions, etc.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1922 - a 5.2 quake struck Morocco, killing 2.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. NO NEW INFO ADDED SINCE LAST TIME.

Saturday, October 22, 2005 -
Finally, a somewhat calmer day.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 BANDA SEA
The large number of small Aegean quakes continued.

People living in seismically active regions have noted prequake signals for ages: Strange weather, low fog, unusual animal behavior, fluctuating water levels.

TROPICAL STORMS -

HURRICANE WILMA - There is some spread as to which part of Florida the center will cross - more northward towards Charlotte Harbor or more toward the Florida Keys. Once over the Gulf there is a window of opportunity from 24-48 hours for Wilma to re-intensify. It will likely reach Florida as a category 2 hurricane.
MEXICO - HURRICANE Wilma hammered deserted resorts along Mexico's Yucatan peninsula with howling winds and torrential rain overnight Friday, toppling trees and power lines as the centre of the storm roared ashore. Hurricane Wilma continued to batter Mexico's Caribbean coast with winds of almost 225km/h, a category 4 storm. The slow-moving nature of the massive storm meant the hurricane was especially dangerous. "The eye is enormous, which means that there will be a six- or seven-hour calm, people will think that the storm has passed, but that will not be the case." In Jamaica, the hurricane sparked widespread flooding and landslides. Earlier forecasts had put the storm in the US state of Florida on Friday but then the expected arrival was pushed back to Saturday - and then again to Monday.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
TASMANIA - HEAVY RAIN caused FLOODING along Tasmania's north-east coast. It has also caused landslides and road closures. Landslides had caused rocks to crumble across sections of the Tasman Highway. Rain is expected to continue.

INDIA - UNSEASONAL RAINS over the past three days, caused by a depression in the Bay of Bengal, brought life in north Bengal to a standstill. The incessant rain, accompanied by a cold wave, has killed numerous migratory birds in the Kulick sanctuary. A large number of Cormorant and Open Billstorks have fallen prey to the weather’s fury. Kharif crops have also been affected. In the Malda district, “unseasonal rain for five days at a stretch is something unprecedented”. Sales of anti-viral fever and anti-influenza medicines have gone up in the past few days.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1882 - a 4.9 quake struck southeast Oklahoma, felt over a wide area including Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday, October 21, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN
5.9 AEGEAN SEA ( plus many magnitude 3+ quakes)
5.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TURKEY - a 5.9 earthquake rocked the western Turkish city of Izmir early yesterday, causing one person to die of a heart attack and leaving several others injured. Panic gripped residents as the trembler struck at 00:40 a.m. (7.40am AEST) under the Aegean Sea, the fourth strong earthquake to shake the region since Monday. On Monday, three violent quakes, measuring 5.7, 5.9 and 5.6 respectively, shook the area in one day, leaving some 30 people injured. Turkey's top seismologist warned residents to be vigilant and stay away from damaged or derelict buildings as the region, which is crossed by several fault lines, was likely to be shaken by more earthquakes. "There is intense seismic activity in the region. We expect this activity to continue for some time but we cannot say until when."

VOLCANO -
PHILIPPINES - MAYON VOLCANO manifested increased level of restiveness on Tuesday and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology aired fresh warmings. Massive rock avalanches might occur in the area due to significant enlargement of the volcano’s dome and continued intrusion of lava file in the crater. The lava file, one of the main indicators of an upcoming eruption, increased to 7 meters in height during the first week of October. The lava file has reached up to 11 meters at the later part of this month. Other indicators of an impending eruption are the volume of sulfur dioxide gas emissions and the frequency of low intensity volcanic quakes. Gas emissions remained high ranging from 700 tons to 2,000 tons per day, which is an evidence of a high volume of sulfur dioxide exiting from the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
At 1 AM CDT the center of Category 4 HURRICANE WILMA was located about 90 miles (145km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma may regain category 5 strength before she approaches the Yucatan today. Wilma is expected to produce 10 - 20 inches of rain through Saturday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula, with isolated amounts of 40 INCHES possible, particularly over higher terrain in western Cuba. Large swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast today. Waves up to 20 feet are being experienced in portions of the south coast of the Isle of Youth.
In some ways, Wilma is another strange wrinkle in an already strange hurricane season. "This storm is doing things that have never been done before. It had a 2-mile-wide eye. That's ridiculous. It had a pressure of 882 millibars. I've been speechless watching this hurricane...I thought Wilma would be a major hurricane, but I didn't think it would be a Cat 5: It's already three-quarters through October. That's pretty unusual...This is Hurricane Season 2005. You might as well throw away the book." "The storm is over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, and wind shear is virtually non-existent. Then there's the size of the envelope: The circulation is drawing warm, moist air from the eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean."
FLORIDA - Lakes throughout Central Florida are filled to capacity, spilling into streets, yards and, in some places, homes. The region simply cannot take any more rain, and the threat of Hurricane Wilma is making residents and government officials anxious. As long as rainfall is no more than 7 to 9 inches, flooding throughout the southern portion of Central Florida should be manageable. Another problem is groundwater, which has become so high in some parts of Central Florida that it's seeping up through cracks in the pavement.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
NEPAL - HEAVY RAINS overnight caused the collpase of a hospital roof in western Nepal killing ten people and injuring at least seven others.

U.S. FORECAST -
During the next 5 days (October 20-24), the focus will be on where Hurricane Wilma tracks, currently forecasted to impact southern Florida around Oct. 22-23 and rapidly move north-northeastward off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a strong upper-air low/trough will develop and stall over the Great Lakes region, potentially bringing another round of heavy rain and flooding to the Northeast, including potential interaction (moisture) with Wilma. In the short-term, an upper-air low over the central Rockies will track east and generate showers from the central Plains eastward into lower New England, with cool air to the north and unseasonable warmth to the south of the system. A new Pacific storm system will produce another round of light to moderate precipitation to the Northwest. Mostly dry weather should prevail elsewhere.
For the ensuing 5 days from October 25-29, the odds favor drier-than-normal conditions in the middle third of the Nation and the Southwest, and above-normal precipitation in the Northwest and Northeast. Temperatures are expected to be subnormal in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, and warmer-than-usual in the Rockies, Plains, and upper Midwest.
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Two storms on a collision course could pummel Southern New Hampshire with winds and flooding early next week. Even if Hurricane Wilma passes far offshore, it could clash with another storm whirling over the Great Lakes region. The combined storms could dump more rain in a single storm than the Valley has seen since 1996, when parts of the region were flooded with 10 to 13 inches.
The water pressing against the battered wooden dam in Taunton continued to recede yesterday, but officials planned to pump more out to try to allow repairs ahead of a weekend forecast calling for heavy rain and flooding.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
NETHERLANDS - WINDMILLS, one of the Netherlands' trademarks, may go idle because of less wind as a result of climate change, Dutch scientists predict. New research shows scientists could have been wrong when they forecast years ago that global warming would cause more storms and wind in northwestern Europe. "We said that 10-15 years ago and what we see in the observations is that the climate is warming but the number of storms is actually decreasing. We don't have a good explanation for that." The traditional windy climate of northwestern Europe has spurred a rapid growth in windmills, mainly in the Netherlands and Germany, to provide alternative energy. Dutch windmills, however, saw declining energy production in the past decade because of less wind. New scenarios about the Dutch climate predict a change in atmospheric flows which means more moisture coming from the North Sea in winter and more frequent droughts in summer. Summer rainfall is also likely to become heavier because of rising temperatures, threatening an increase in river levels and floods in the low-lying Netherlands.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1923 – Start of 160-day heat wave in Marble Bar, Western Australia, during which the temperature did not fall below 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit).
In 1999 – A powerful 7.6 earthquake struck Taiwan in the pre-dawn hours, killing more than 2,300 and damaging 82,000 housing units. The quake caused some $9.2 billion in damages and noticeably altered the island's topography.
In 2003 – A series of massive wildfires in southern California raged across a wooded and suburban region surrounding Los Angeles and San Diego, killing at least 22 people and scorching about 300,000 hectares. Some 3,500 homes were destroyed.
In 2004 – Japan started the clean-up from its deadliest typhoon in over a decade, a day after the storm ripped across the country, killing 55 and leaving 24 missing.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, October 20, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 BANDA SEA


Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION (Indian Ocean, 291km NW of Diego Garcia)
5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 NEAR E. COAST EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.4 PAKISTAN
5.8 PAKISTAN
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes.

JAPAN - The earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale rocked Tokyo and the surrounding area last night, briefly shutting down an experimental nuclear reactor. "The building rolled for 40 seconds or so but no objects fell from shelves or racks." There were no fears of tsunami waves resulting from the quake which occurred at 8.44 pm. Japan endures 25 per cent of the world's major earthquakes and has built its infrastructure accordingly, with Tokyo's high-rises designed to withstand powerful tremors.

PAKISTAN - A series of fresh landslides have been triggered by two strong aftershocks from south Asia's earthquake, inflicting more damage on the already hard-hit cities of Balakot and Muzaffarabad in northern Pakistan. Because so much of the damage is in isolated pockets, many people - maybe 500,000 - may not get help in time and some of the injured have no chance of survival.
Every tale is more painful than the next in the earthquake zone.
The death toll soared to 79,000 Wednesday from South Asia's mammoth earthquake, making it ONE OF THE DEADLIEST QUAKES IN MODERN TIMES. More aftershocks rattled the region, sending up huge clouds of dust from steep-sided mountain valleys where villages lie in pieces. "Many people out there, we are not going to get to in time. Some people who have injuries don't have a chance of survival."

The author of a new book about the 1906 San Francisco quake, “A Crack in the Edge of the World", says, “We’re living in a period of unusual seismic activity; the floating rafts of rock on which the earth’s surface sit are grinding, sliding, moving over one another. The year 1906 was similar, earthquakes and seismic eruptions in Ecuador, Formosa, and Vesuvius occurred along with the San Francisco quake."

SAN DIEGO, CA - A 4.1 quake struck at 1:51 am and was an aftershock of a 4.9 quake recorded in the same general area on Sunday.

SOUTH DAKOTA - An earthquake was detected Tuesday evening four miles north of Howard. The quake measured 3.1 on the Richter Scale and occurred at 9:43 p.m. There were no reports of property damage. The USGS said damage generally doesn't occur until the earthquake magnitude reaches above 4 or 5.

VOLCANOES -
Officials in West New Britain province link the eruption of Mount Garbuna,which burst into life earlier this week after hundreds of years of dormancy, with the eruption of Mount Langila earlier this year. A thousand people live in the village closest to the volcano. 20,000 people live in the Talasea district and the main threat today is ashfall.

Montagu Island in the remote SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS in the South Atlantic - Mount Belinda has been in a persistent state of eruption since 2001, and is now entering its fifth year of activity. Far from slowing down, the activity throughout 2005 marks the highest levels yet. An increase in activity in the fall of 2005 has produced an active 3.5-kilometer-long lava flow, extending from the summit cone of Mount Belinda all the way down into the sea.

TSUNAMI -
The National Weather Service accidentally triggered a tsunami warning alert across Oregon this morning. The Oregon Emergency Management office says the National Weather Service was conducting an internal test when it was accidentally sent out on radio stations statewide.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 715 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, chances for intensification seem to be diminishing. (This depression formed on the 14th, dropped below monitoring level on the 18th, then reintensified on the 19th. This system has been a bit of an enigma by not being able to maintain deep convection for any significant amount of time. The most likely culprit is dry air seen in the water vapor pictures.)

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma has became THE MOST POWERFUL STORM EVER RECORDED IN THE ATLANTIC and is now hurtling toward Mexico and the US coast with terrifying winds. The US National Hurricane Centre warned that the "potentially catastrophic" behemoth, packing winds of 260km/h, continued to swirl toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The peninsula could be hit by hurricane conditions in the next 24 hours. Yucatan could be hit by storm surge flooding of up to 3m above normal tide, along with "large and dangerous battering waves," if Wilma's eye makes landfall on the peninsula. Florida was bracing for Wilma to arrive late on Saturday, and a state of emergency was declared in the Keys. Florida's governor was downcast at the prospect of a fresh hit. "Why us?" he said. "How does a storm take a sharp 90-degree turn?"

CENTRAL AMERICAN NATIONS - already reeling from flooding and mudslides earlier this month in the aftermath of hurricane Stan, are now bracing for even more damage from hurricane Wilma. Heavy rains are already pounding the region and the storm is being blamed for at least 13 deaths in Haiti and Jamaica. When Stan hit Guatemala, about 1800 died. "There was no emergency plan. No one knew what to do. Lives would have been saved if they had." In El Salvador, conditions were just as savage, but the number of dead is measured in the dozens, not the thousands. "We protected ourselves in case of emergency." A neighbourhood in San Salvador not only has its own shelter, it has organized its own emergency plan, with regular community meetings, someone to watch the weather and an evacuation bell to ring.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

CALIFORNIA - Are they getting a replay of October 2004? Last year at this time, San Diego was in the middle of a round of deluges that contributed to the wettest October in city history. The rains started there Oct. 17; by Oct. 21, Lindbergh Field had recorded 1.82 inches. An additional 3.16 inches fell about a week later, pushing the total to 4.98 inches – 1.31 inches more than had ever been recorded during October. Normal for the entire month is 0.44 of an inch. A rather unusual cutoff low got things rolling in mid-October last year, and it sort of opened the storm door for the heavy rains late in the month. This year, a very similar cutoff low cranked up the machine. Last year in early October, a cutoff low settled over Nevada, then kicked out to the east. Then a second low moved in to fill the void. Weather Service forecasters call such storms "dry inside sliders," because they drop down inland and don't have a lot of moisture associated with them. That second low then moved west across California, which is not the typical pattern. The low then went completely offshore – far enough to create Santa Ana conditions. "That doesn't happen very often – probably once every three or four years." While the low was out at sea, it pulled in subtropical moisture. This week's storm was also an inside slider, but to use a baseball term, it caught a bit of the plate. It moved down through central California. And then, like last year, the cold core of the storm moved off the coast. However, the low did not move as far offshore, nor did it hang out there for as long as the storm last year. The recent storm also developed a front associated with it, but unlike last year, the front was to the south of us. Last year, the front was more to our west and north. In the three Octobers prior to last year, San Diego recorded a total of 0.04 of an inch. When they do get storms in the transitional seasons of spring and fall, they tend to be cutoff lows like the ones they experienced these last two years. What's odd has been the lows' pattern of going in, out and then back in again.

BIRD FLU -
Several countries in Europe and Asia are reporting fresh cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain among poultry, sparking new fears that humans could be at risk. Fresh outbreaks have been reported in Romania and Russia on the same day as China said it had lost thousands of fowl to the killer virus. (map with migratory birds' flyways and countries with outbreaks of bird flu)
East Africa needs urgent help to combat the bird flu virus which could soon spread there, the United Nation's food agency, the FAO is warning. Confirmation that the potentially deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has already arrived in Turkey and Romania suggests it is being carried by migrating birds. These known routes end in East Africa's Rift Valley where farming patterns closely resemble those in Asia. The first birds could arrive in North Africa and then East Africa in the coming weeks.
Common sense measures can help individuals protect themselves. Number one is hand-washing, a surprisingly effective way to prevent all sorts of diseases, including ordinary influenza and the H5N1 virus that everyone now fears may jump into humans and cause a catastrophic pandemic. Number two - do not try to buy your own personal supplies of Tamiflu, one of two drugs shown to work against avian influenza. And number three, stay home if you do get sick.

DISASTER PLANNING -
Governments too often ignore risks of natural disasters like hurricanes and earthquakes and could save lives and billions of dollars with better planning, says an international study. Over the past century, the number of recorded natural disasters surged to 2,800 per decade from 100. "It's time to change the mindset of governments, who tend to plan too little for natural disasters." "Investments in reducing vulnerability are almost always significantly smaller, by a factor of perhaps 2-5, than dealing with the disaster itself."

Statement by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff to the United States House Select Committee on Hurricane Katrina.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1870 - a damaging earthquake struck Canada between Montreal and Quebec.
In 1986 - an 8.3 quake struck the Kermadec Islands region generating a tsunami.
In 1991 – an earthquake struck the Himalayan foothills in India, killing at least 341 people and destroying tens of thousands of homes.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.4 PAKISTAN
5.8 PAKISTAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.5 IONIAN SEA (the Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea continue to have many small quakes)
5.1 PERU
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

TURKEY - The two strong undersea earthquakes that shook a major port city in western Turkey on Monday, damaged buildings, prompting terrified residents to run from their homes and jump from windows, and injuring at least six people. Scientists warned there could be more quakes and aftershocks during the next few days and urged residents to stay away from damaged buildings.

VOLCANOES -
VANUATU - Vanuatu authorities are warning people to stay off Mount Yasur volcano on Tanna island. Seismic monitors have measured a surge in activity over the last two weeks. "The volcanic seismicity, recorded at the proximity of Yasur, shows an increase of activity since mid-September 2005, and this could be the warning signs of high explosive activity."

PALU ISLAND IN EASTERN INDONESIA - The volcano Mount Rokatenda has increased activity since Saturday, with people living on the slopes of the mountain abandoning their homes in fear of a larger eruption. Rokatenda has been billowing clouds of white smoke during the past few days, with villagers living on or near its slopes reporting a series of small tremors. The increased activity comes after Mount Egon's eruption in the province in September last year, which forced thousands of people to flee their houses for safety.

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Geological Survey said on Saturday that seismic activity had been slowly increasing at Mount St. Helens the past few days. But scientists say they don't expect any significant change in the dome-building eruption that has been going on for more than a year in the volcano's crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI was 176 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan. Powerful Typhoon No. 20 is likely to pound the Izu Island chain this morning, bringing heavy rain.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Wilma was 141 nmi NE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. An Air Force reconnaissance plane has reported 884MB, THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. This measurement is awaiting calibration. The previous record is 888 MB associated with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Rainfall expected - Cuba through Friday, 10-15 inches average, 25 inches in mountainous terrain. Cayman Islands and Jamaica through Thursday, an additional 5-10, possible 15 inches. Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday, 4-6 inches, isolated 8-12 inches. Wilma should weaken as she turns towards Florida at the end of the week.
Wilma picked up force Tuesday, turning into a Category 2 hurricane as it menaced the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. By afternoon, it was registering top winds of near 130 kilometers per hour, and threatening to get stronger. Wilma is the 12th hurricane in the 2005 Atlantic storm season, which ties a 1969 record for the highest number of hurricanes in a single season since weather records began in 1851. This year has already tied a 1933 record for the highest number of named Atlantic storms, with Wilma's christening over the weekend.
Hurricane Wilma triggered mudslides that killed up to 10 people in Haiti as the season's record-tying 21st storm strengthened rapidly on Tuesday. frozen orange juice futures closed at a six-year high on Tuesday amid fears Wilma could ravage Florida groves that had just begun to rebound from the hurricanes that destroyed 40 percent of last year's crop. More than 5,000 people were evacuated in eastern Cuba, where two days of rainfall caused floods and mudslides. The Florida Keys, a chain of islands connected to mainland Florida by a single road, planned to order visitors to leave on Thursday and to evacuate 80,000 residents on Friday.
Four storms - Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma - have formed this month and is