Featured Disasters From Previous Weeks

Monday, October 31, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.4 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -

Typhoon Kai-tak is forecast to strike Vietnam at about 12:00 GMT on November 2 with category 1 strength. Torrential rains have occurred in almost all central coastal provinces from Ha Tinh southward to Phu Yen over the past two days.

Hurricane Beta - By Sunday afternoon, it had weakened to a tropical storm with 65mph winds as it swept across Nicaragua, dumping up to 15 inches of rain. Forecasters had predicted the storm would touch down in the far northeastern region of Nicaragua, prompting officials to evacuate thousands of people from the far eastern coastal port of Cabo de Gracias a Dios, and from along the River Coco, both on the Honduras border. But early yesterday, Beta took an unexpected turn south, and headed for Nicaragua’s central coastline. In Honduras, authorities evacuated more than 7,800 people from 50 communities along the northeastern Atlantic coast after four rivers overflowed due to heavy rains dumped by Hurricane Beta. The weakened storm should dissipate over Nicaragua today without its eye ever passing into Honduras.
BETA - There is still a threat of additional heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador for the next day or so, with the potential to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Should the system regenerate over the east Pacific, it would be assigned a new number and/or name.

CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW??? FLORIDA - In parts of Miami-Dade and Broward that are in evacuation zones, because they could be flooded by even the weakest hurricanes, nearly a third of residents believe they would be safe at home in a Category 4 storm with sustained wind of 155 mph. "I would be surprised frankly if a majority of people were familiar with the details of the forecast. I think that they rely on their local emergency management to distill the forecast into operational terms for them," such as whether to evacuate or put up shutters. "People need to be told specifically what they need to do rather than how strong it will be." Surveys show that people pay much more attention to hurricanes when an evacuation order is issued, no matter the warnings that meteorologists give.

FLORIDA - Wilma raised some lakes beyond their banks in just a few hours, inundating roads and threatening homes. The northern edge of the large storm dropped as much as 8 inches of rain last week. Pumping could continue this week to dry out several areas flooded by the hurricane. Crews already had been pumping water away from lakes BEFORE the hurricane hit due to heavy summer downpours.

ODD -
SCOTLAND - Last week's record-breaking heatwave fooled numerous species into believing winter had already passed. Bizarre and wildly fluctuating weather patterns have confused - and could yet kill - plants and animals across the area. Scientists now fear animals and plants will perish in their tens of thousands if, as predicted by some experts, the UK suffers its coldest winter for years with temperatures as low as minus 27°C. Wildlife experts fear hibernating animals may be caught out by the dramatic change in the weather after halting their preparations for the winter because of the late warm spell. Plants are already showing signs of bursting into bloom too early at a time when there are no insects around to pollinate their flowers. At the Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, some trees have already started flowering as much as four months early. "For some of the plants spring has come in autumn, it seems." "We have a hazel bush here that normally flowers in February but is already starting to produce flowers in October... The previously mild winters in the past few years has meant the plant has been flowering progressively earlier, but this time it has advanced 32 days on the last year. It is possible weather has reset the plant's internal rhythms." A number of other species have also shown unusual activity this year. Wych hazel bushes, which normally flower in early winter, are already bursting with catkins several weeks early. Rhododendron bushes are also still blooming in the unseasonably warm autumn, nearly two months after they should have lost their flowers at the end of summer. Some plants will be hit hard in the coming winter freeze. Other species have been displaying baffling behaviour that even scientists are struggling to understand. Bird-watchers have spotted strange behaviour in migrating geese arriving in Scotland after flying south from Iceland for the winter. The pink-footed geese have been leaving their roosts beside estuaries in south-east Scotland much later in the day than usual, even going out to search for food at night. "This is the first season we have had reports of the pink-footed geese moving in such a strange way. They are leaving their roosts in the evening and going inland, which is completely the opposite to what they usually do as they return to their roosts in the evening. They normally only do this when there is a full moon but there hasn't been one, so it is difficult to understand what is causing this."

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1895- a 6.7 quake struck Charleston, Missouri.
In 1970 - a 7.0 quake struck New Guinea, 5 killed.
In 2002 – an earthquake struck the village of San Giuliano di Puglia in the Apennine mountains 225 km southeast of Rome, killing 26 children and one teacher in an elementary school that collapsed.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 30, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.4 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
6.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

TRINIDAD, GRENADA, VENEZUELA - A 5.5 earthquake rattled the area late Friday, but there were no immediate reports of injury or damage. The temblor struck at about 6:30 p.m. The quake was centered about 45 miles off the coast of Trinidad, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The latest quake came just days after a magnitude 4.9 temblor jolted Trinidad and Grenada on Monday.

RESTLESS VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - As of the 28th of October, there has been some seismic activity at Ruapehu. The lake temperature, which had been falling from a high of 38 degrees C several weeks ago, has started to rise again.
ALASKA - As of the 29th of October, elevated seismic activity below young volcanic vents on Tanaga Island continues. Since October 24 they have observed weak, nearly continuous volcanic tremor in the vicinity of Takawangha volcano, of the Tanaga volcano cluster. This is the first time that tremor of this sort has been observed in the volcanic cluster since the seismic network was installed in 2003. The daily number of small earthquakes has continued to diminish from its peak in early October, but is still above background.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KAI-TAK was 259 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam. This system will make landfall in northern Vietnam and dissipate over northern Indochina. ( path forecast map )

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Beta was about to make landfall in Nicaragua this morning. Although a powerful Category 2, Beta is a small hurricane. She will bring storm surges and torrential rain to Nicaragua and Honduras. It is possible that whatever is left of Beta in a few days could at some point lead to regeneration in the Pacific. Satellite image.
NICARAGUA has ordered the evacuation of a coastal city after Hurricane Beta changed course and threatened to become a Category Three storm. Authorities in north-eastern Puerto Cabezas fear there will not be enough time to evacuate all of the city's 60,000 inhabitants. Strong winds and heavy rain have already begun hitting Puerto Cabezas, about 400km (250 miles) north-east of the capital Managua.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WILMA - The power company in Florida has never had so many of its customers out, not even when Category 5 Hurricane Andrew roared through Miami-Dade County in 1992. Bewildered executives are pondering places where severe and inconsistent damage by Wilma felled about 10,000 of the company's poles - more than any during Florida's recent spate of storms. Teams of forensics experts are studying damage to substations where flying debris wrapped itself around equipment, knocking out power to thousands at a time. "We haven't seen this before," about the substation damage. "This is an oddity. It's going to take us months to understand what happened and why." THE STORM IS CONFOUNDING ONE OF THE COUNTRY'S MOST EXPERIENCED HURRICANE TEAMS, leaving officials to toss out suggestions of tornadoes, headwinds and microbursts. "You're not going to get that kind of damage from a weakening storm." "We've had very weird situations here where concrete poles have been, completely unencumbered by anything, snapped in two." "We think we had SOME STRANGE WEATHER PHENOMENA BEYOND THE HURRICANE." (photo of metal transmission poles which Wilma bent like blades of grass)
Wilma inflicted heavy damage on South Florida, but it wasn't that powerful - blowing through Miami-Dade and Broward with Category 1 sustained winds generally below 85 mph. That's the preliminary assessment of hurricane scientists, who are just beginning to study a storm that darkened more than 80 percent of South Florida homes, closed schools and many businesses for at least a week, and caused brutal devastation in some areas, knocking down power poles, ripping sides off buildings and shattering countless storm-resistent windows. This contrast between minimal hurricane winds and severe pockets of extreme damage might mean brief, devastating winds called microbursts touched down in some places. Thousands of thick concrete and wooden poles, supposedly designed to withstand winds of 119 miles, collapsed during Wilma. The utility reported the major collapses of poles occurred in random, isolated areas and they believe an unusual force felled the poles. ''I'm very curious whether there were some tornadoes or microbursts moving through the area.'' But there is no proof of tornadoes spinning out of Wilma. "Did they have tornadoes all over Dade County and nobody saw them?'' Microbursts can cause random patterns of utter devastation. ''Damage is caused by peak winds. It doesn't matter how long they last.'' Another factor could have been Wilma coming in from the southwest. Most hurricanes move over the flat surface of the ocean and arrive on shore with a relatively steady wind, but Wilma, moving in over Florida's southwest coast and then the Everglades, was hitting structures and dips, creating uneven swirls of wind and perhaps picking up more debris along the way than an Atlantic storm. In fact, the 241 substations knocked out by the storm suffered primarily because of debris blown on them. By the time it reached South Florida, Wilma was also UNCOMMONLY DRY FOR A HURRICANE: It dumped only three-fourths of an inch at Miami International Airport.

INDIA - The cyclone that hit the Andhra coast on Friday afternoon wreaked havoc in at least five districts and claimed 12 lives as it unleashed torrential rains and strong gales. Hundreds of houses have been damaged and about 100 tanks have breached in the affected areas. About 40,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas. This is the third time in the last six weeks that rains have taken a heavy toll of life and caused widespread damage across the state. The rain threw normal life out of gear, disrupted road and rail traffic, and caused extensive crop damage.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
INDIA - At least 50 people died and more were feared killed when a passenger train derailed and toppled into swirling floodwaters in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh early today. The floodwaters came from an overflowing reservoir nearby. The reservoir had been hit by flashfloods caused by rains which have swamped southern India for more than a week. Some people were still alive in the coaches, "but if they come out they will be swept away". Television pictures showed brown muddy waters swirling around the wreckage, with passengers waiting to be rescued standing on top of some of the carriages which had not been fully submerged.
INDIA - One after the other, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata have crumbled in the face of concentrated bursts of rain that destroyed civic infrastructure, left thousands marooned for days and reduced local weathermen to bumbling fools. Waist-high water, submerged runways, aircrafts skidding, deadly landslides, flooded homes, 150,000 displaced citizens and over 1,000 people killed: relentless assaults from the rains have caused havoc across India’s urban hubs in the last three months. The amounts of rain are 944 mm in Mumbai, 593 mm in Bangalore, 420 mm in Chennai. Until July 26th's cloudburst, Mumbai had never experienced 944 mm of rain in 24 hours for about 500 years. Until last week, Bangalore’s record for maximum rain in October was 522 mm in 1956. Weathermen are still searching for data on the last time it rained 270 mm in a span of six hours in Chennai. And in Vishakapatnam, it took a fortnight for a flight to take off or land after flooded runways transformed the airport into a lake. Excess rainfall is the result of a peculiar phenomenon. “There is high moisture level which bursts at particular areas because of compression created by excess heat on ground and from the atmosphere. We have been witnessing sudden bursts of rainfall in certain regions in the past few years.” India figures among the top 10 contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. And carbon emissions from congested cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore are much higher than rural areas. “The increase in green house gas emissions like carbon dioxide and methane (caused by vehicular traffic, fossil fuel burning and deforestation) have a definite impact on monsoon rains." “Natural drainage systems have been built over or modified in all urban areas which is what caused the flooding in all the metros. The high density of population only adds to the problem. These are the problems that we can control.”

JAMAICA - There were more reports of flooding in St. James as heavy rains continued to lash sections of the parish Friday. While some persons saw only flood waters, huge boulders were washed into one yard trapping the family.

TEXAS - SAN JOSE, DUVAL COUNTY - A twister was accompanied by heavy rains and hail that left a trail of damage in its wake. Throughout Duval County you'll find trees inside homes, trees on cars, and trees split in half. Trailer homes leveled, trees uprooted, power lines down, buildings blown over.

AVALANCHE -
On October 20th in the Himalayas furious blizzards set off a series of avalanches. Seven French mountaineers disappeared with 11 Nepalese climbers when a wall of snow thundered into their base camp on the Kanguru peak. Only four of the 22-strong expedition survived. "I have never seen anything like it," said one of the Nepalese porters who dug his way out of the snow."There was a sudden loud noise and within seconds we were blown to the side. We were lucky. The others disappeared." It was the worst ever single loss of life in the mountains. "The conditions had been perfect and there was absolutely no sign that the weather was changing. I was watching my barometer. But on the Wednesday heavy snow began falling, which didn't let up for around 36 hours." A distressed French trekker who had been near the area where the avalanches struck " was really shaken and ashen-faced and told us that he heard avalanches coming off Kanguru peak in REGULAR INTERVALS." The avalanche dragged the climbers more than 100 metres down the mountain in a steep gorge.

MARS - This weekend, Mars comes closer to Earth than it will again for another 13 years. Rising in the east after sunset, Mars looks like an intense pumpkin-colored star. A new dust storm has erupted on Mars, big and bright enough to see through backyard telescopes. Some longtime observers say it's the most intense they've ever seen. On Oct. 28th the billowing cloud assumed the shaped of a giant tentacled octopus.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1983 - a 6.9 quake struck Turkey, more than 1342 killed, 50 villages completely destroyed.
In 2003 – An army of 13,000 firefighters struggled to contain the worst wildfires in California in years. Twenty people die and thousands of homes were destroyed.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.

Saturday, October 29, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 WINDWARD ISLANDS
5.3 PAKISTAN

CHINA - One man in his 60s was killed and another injured in a 4.4 earthquake in Pingguo County, Bose City of south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Thursday. The man was having dinner together at home with other members of the family when the earthquake struck at 7:19 p.m. and he was killed by a boulder falling from the mountain near his home.

PAKISTAN - Pakistan's military estimates that about a third of the homeless from the October 8th quake live in remote mountain areas where winter weather will be severe. The United Nations has warned that thousands of people could die from exposure or cold-related illnesses unless they get at least temporary shelter sturdy enough to withstand the harsh Himalayan winter. Snow is already falling on mountain peaks, and at night temperatures drop far below freezing in villages. As survivors struggle to find warm shelter, prices for essential goods are rising fast. Many people are going into debt just trying to feed themselves. Outside Muzaffarabad, in the Jhelum Valley, villagers say the price of rice has more than tripled since the quake. Survivors are making tents themselves, some with dried cornstalks and old plastic sacks that can't stop the freezing wind. The children are coughing, and colder weather is just a few weeks away. So they tried to rig up some insulation: a thin layer of foil packaging taken from Mexican-style snacks from Germany.

VOLCANOES -
PAKISTAN - Fear has gripped the inhabitants of Alai where landslides in the adjoining Chel Mountain have triggered speculations of an impending volcanic eruption. A team of geologists visited the site this week and said that there was no volcanic activity in the area but called for a second look at the site to carry out a thorough study before giving a final verdict. "We would like to see the fissures and cracks which people say have been caused by the supposed volcanic activity, the water which, they say, has changed its colour and the smoke, which they say, is coming out from the mountain.” Geologists said that one area that had developed fissures seemed dangerous. “That did not look good to me.” They added that the area was a high-risk zone and mountains that had soft composition could pose serious threat to people due to frequent jolts and landslides.

WASHINGTON, MT. ST. HELENS - Geologists say the grumbling mountain is going through a 25-year eruption cycle, but its explosive energy seems to be petering out. It did go through two relatively big explosions this year, Jan. 16 and March 8. Lately, the mountain has occasionally given off plumes from eruptive activity, mostly white steam and black dust. When they become substantial enough, the black dust can become hazardous to airplanes because it is hot enough to melt cockpit windshields. As the months and years go by since the 1980 big one, geologists see the seismic energy fading. Gas emissions have been remaining low, suggesting the energy of the underlying magma is fading away.

Vast sheets of prehistoric lava some 250 million years ago were probably caused by meteorites, according to U.S. scientists. The huge volume of magma in the lava sheets might have caused global changes in climate that made Earth inhospitable to all but the hardiest species. A meteorite with a diameter of less than a mile could dent the Earth's crust enough to weaken it. "There's no reason it couldn't happen again."

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm KAI-TAK was 331 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam. ( Projected path )

1 in the Indian Ocean -
Cyclone 04B was 411 nmi ESE of Bombay, India. Has made landfall near Ongole, India.

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane BETA was 161 nmi SE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. The slow-moving, category 1 Beta continues to batter Providencia Island with damaging winds, torrential rainfall and high surf. Extensive damage has occurred to homes but there are still no communications with residents. Rainfall may exceed 25 inches. Beta could become a strong category 2 or even 3 hurricane before it makes landfall along the east coast of Nicaragua. Some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Cuba, Florida and portions of the SE U.S by the middle of next week.

MAURITIUS - is forecasting about 10 cyclones or tropical storms in the southwestern Indian Ocean in 2005/6. The tiny island of 1.2 million people, located off the east coast of Africa, is prone to cyclones between November and mid-May, peaking in January and February. The impact of cyclonic rains on the sugar crop is a major concern in Mauritius. An economic mainstay, sugar is harvested from June to December. Storm formations would be mainly in the region of Diego Garcia and at least one was expected to develop in the Mozambique Channel. "There is a strong likelihood that at least a couple of formations could develop into severe tropical cyclones and reach very high intensity, with winds blowing at 250 kmph (155 mph)." Observations from the meteorological station also showed the possibility of torrential rains and high temperatures during the summer.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
AUSTRALIA - Wild thunderstorms lashed south-east Queensland again overnight. More than 23,000 lightning strikes were recorded, with more than 400 hitting in 15 minutes.One brick home in Brisbane's north was struck by a massive bolt of lightning about 9.15pm (AEST). The owner thought terrorists had struck, as his ceiling crumbled on top of him, walls collapsed and doors were blown off their hinges. "I thought it was a bomb. I didn't think about lightning...All of a sudden there was an almighty explosion and it threw me across the bed. The place was full of dense black smoke and I got out of bed and thought the place was on fire. I tried to put the light on and put my arm straight through the wall because it blew the wall out." The State Emergency Services controller said he had never seen anything like it.

HEAT -
FRANCE - The tail–end of Hurricane Wilma is the cause of steady offshore 60 kph winds from the south, and temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday of 21, 20 and 22 degrees are expected, a whole six degrees above normal. "This season's weather in Paris is not being normal. One of my elderly neighbors guessed that the last fall when it was similar was in 1985 – so, scientifically, it only happens once every 20 years."

UNITED KINGDOM - October 27 was the hottest day ever recorded there. The temperature at Aultbea, on the banks of Loch Ewe, peaked at 21.2C. It beat the British record of 20.3C for the previously hottest 27 October, which was recorded in London in 1888. Similar soaring temperatures were seen throughout Scotland, with Glasgow, Edinburgh, Inverness, the Moray coast and the Scottish Borders all exceeding 20C - HIGHLY UNUSUAL for the second half of October. In central London, the mercury rose to 21.5C in the afternoon. There has been a wind but even the wind is very warm. The average temperature in Scotland for this time of year is normally as low as 12C, but throughout the country that figure has been significantly beaten. Edinburgh's temperature hit 21C - the HIGHEST IN THE LAST TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. "For late October it is unusual to have had such a hot day. There has been an ideal wind trajectory, with the wind coming from north Africa, Spain, northern France and through England, so there's not been much of a sea tract to cool it down."

ODD -
MYSTERIOUS BOOMS ARE BACK, THIS TIME IN ISRAEL - Dozens of residents from across Israel heard unusually loud “explosions” and tremors throughout the night, but attempts to shed light on the source of the blasts has been met with uncertainty. At least one possibility has been discounted, with the country’s seismological institute saying no earthquake occurred. Police officials estimated the loud sounds were a result of sonic booms created by IDF fighter jets on their way to attacking Gaza, but the army insisted there was no unusual Air Force activity across the country overnight. Many residents said the explosions came from the direction of the sea. “Police personnel who heard the blasts themselves said they sounded like sonic booms. We still don’t know what caused the explosions. We had similar reports during the week.” Police in Haifa also received calls regarding a possible earthquake, but no damages were reported. The nighttime explosions have apparently become a routine occurrence throughout the Sharon region, north of Tel Aviv. In recent nights there have been other reports about blasts heard in the town of Herzliya, but the source of them is unclear. “It was a scary blast. The windows shook and we felt the entire house shake. The first thing that came to mind was a terror attack…we weren’t able to figure out what caused the first blast, and minutes later a second blast followed.” The blast was so powerful it knocked one door out. The owner said he thought an earthquake was behind the unusual occurrence. “It wasn’t like an explosion, but rather, the entire building shook.”

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1976 - a 7.1 quake struck West Irian, 133 killed.
In 1989 - a 5.7 quake struck Algeria.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday, October 28, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA
5.1 SOUTH OF ALASKA
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

PAKISTAN - Predictions of a second wave of death from the Oct. 8 South Asian earthquake are coming true with the confirmation that at least 22 injured people have died of tetanus.

VOLCANOES -
PACIFIC SEA FLOOR - Noisy popping rocks hauled up from the deep Pacific seafloor off northern Mexico appear to be from a very young undersea volcano. Some of the weird and scientifically valuable gas-charged, remarkably loud, volcanic rocks were first discovered in the same area in 1960, but no one had been able to find them again until now. The area is 200 miles south of San Diego near Guadalupe Island. "People don't know how many volcanoes there are off the coast here." The rocks are pretty rare. They are the only popping rocks found outside the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. How much of each gas that's found in the rocks could support or challenge theories about how the interior of the Earth is heated.

GUATEMALA - The Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala experienced a small eruption on October 26. Its October 26 eruption was quite mild compared to earlier activity. It experienced a catastrophic eruption in 1902. Another eruption in 1929 killed as many as 5,000 people.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic / Caribbean
- Tropical storm Beta is forecast to strike Nicaragua as a hurricane at about 06:00 GMT on 30 October at category 2 strength.
SAN ANDRES - Officials evacuated hundreds of tourists and residents from the Colombian island of San Andres as Tropical Storm Beta appeared on track to become the 13th hurricane of the already record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season of 23 named storms. "It may not be over with Beta, but let's hope so." Beta would be the first hurricane to hit the Colombian islands since Hurricane Cesar slammed into them in 1996, killing three people. Beta is expected to dump up to 15 inches (40 centimeters) across western Panama, Costa Rica, northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

In the Eastern North Pacific -
An area of low pressure located about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has remained nearly stationary. Although thunderstorm activity is currently limited, this system still has some potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so.
An area of disturbed weather located about 840 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for some slow development to occur during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, Tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 04B is located 120 nm northeast of Madras, India. The system is forecast to make landfall this morning and will continue tracking inland thereafter. Storm path

MEXICO - Hurricane Wilma ripped into coral reefs and damaged more than 1 million acres (500,000 hectares) of trees on the Yucatan peninsula, creating fuel for possible forest fires in the upcoming dry season. On Isla Mujeres, angry surf dragged the public beach's sand across much of the island, blocking streets and filling homes and businesses with the snowy white grains. People complained of limited access to drinking water and homes destroyed by high winds, waves and flooding. Many residents stayed on Isla Mujeres as the storm hit, ripping apart even cinderblock homes. Fishermen on Isla Mujeres said the storm scared away most of the fish. Peering into the water, a shallow reef just offshore was abandoned by sealife. "The people here fish... But now there aren't fish, so we don't do anything." On Cozumel, a larger island popular with cruise ships and divers, hundreds of tourists had been stranded for days, but most had been evacuated by Thursday. Even in Cancun, lines at makeshift airline ticket counters had nearly vanished.

FLORIDA - No official estimate has been made of Florida's agriculture losses from Wilma, but they likely will exceed $1 billion. The losses appeared to be worse than those from Hurricane Katrina earlier this year, and worse than the four hurricanes that ravaged Florida last year. (Last year's hurricanes caused $2 billion to $3 billion in damages to crops and infrastructure) Forty-percent of the citrus crop in the hurricane-affected areas in the southern part of the state appeared to be on the ground. Four sugar-processing facilities are inoperable, and many sugar cane fields have been flattened. In addition, U.S. Sugar's internal railroad suffered significant damage as locomotives and railcars were blown over, company officials said.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
AUSTRALIA - Lightning struck more than 400 times across Queensland's south-east last night in 1 and a half hours, as a large storm blacked out around 15,000 homes. Only around 40mm to 50mm of rainfall was recorded. "We are going to need a few hundred millimetres to make a difference to the dam catchment areas." Storms will continue to build in western Queensland, but the weekend will be mostly storm-free in the south-east.

INDIA - Nearly 50,000 people have been evacuated as heavy rains lashed southern India for the third straight day today, triggering floods.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - A rain-swollen river flooded a city in the northern Dominican Republic, washing away 10 houses and killing six people, including two children, officials said Wednesday.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1746 – The Peruvian cities Lima and Callao were demolished by an earthquake, killing at least 18,000.
In 1891 – An 8.4 earthquake struck the Niphon Islands in Japan, killing 10,000 people and leaving at least 300,000 homeless.
In 1983 - a 7.0 quake struck Borah Peak, Idaho, 2 killed. Felt in Idaho, Washington, Montana, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, and parts of Canada.
In 1998 – Hurricane Mitch paused over Honduras with 200 km/h winds, sweeping away bridges, flooding neighbourhoods and killing hundreds of people.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, October 27, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 PAKISTAN

VOLCANO -
PAKISTAN - Fears of a volcano pushing through the earthquake-shattered mountains of northern Pakistan have proved unfounded, geologists said. People in the remote Alai valley of North West Frontier Province had mistaken dust arising from landslides triggered by a strong aftershock on Sunday for smoke. "The dust and fog hang in the air for a while because of the cold and it triggered panic in the area" following the aftershock of 6.0 magnitude which had its epicentre near the valley. "There is no crack in the mountains, there is no eruption."

EL SALVADOR - Llamatepec Volcano is expelling gases, which could signal a new eruption. They were registering vibrations and a significant increase in seismic activity of the volcano, which had been at rest since October 21. A red alert has again been declared for 3,106 miles around Llamatepec and authorities have asked evacuated citizens to remain calm. "The mountain continues very active, expelling toxic gases, but the increasing clouds in the area do not allow close observation of the phenomenon." On October 1, over 20,000 citizens left the area with the eruption that caused two deaths.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Beta the RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON, was 111 nmi NE of Limon, Costa Rica. Torrential rains are expected in Central America - 10-15 inches across western Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. The storm is forecast strengthen to a hurricane before 48 hours and to move inland over Nicaragua in a couple of days. The government of Colombia has issued a hurricane watch in additon to the tropical storm warning already in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. Satellite Image.

Hurricane center forecasters are watching two other areas in the tropics for signs of development. Squally weather associated with a tropical wave will likely spread over the Lesser Antilles during later today and tonight. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
A weak low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Upper-level level winds appear unfavorable for additional development at this time.

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA - Several more deaths were confirmed in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from flooding caused by Tropical Storm Alpha, bringing the death toll to 26. The storm drenched the two countries, which share the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, with torrential rain on Monday [AFTER Alpha was already supposed to have been absorbed by Wilma] and caused flash floods that swept away people, houses and animals.

WILMA - FLORIDA - We expect storms to hit land and slow down from the sheer friction of their mass or the obstacles they encounter. And we expect them to do more damage on the side of the state they enter than on the side they exit. But, not Wacky Wilma. "I guess we could classify it as RARE because we don't get a lot of Category 3 hurricanes making landfall any time of year, much less in October." Wilma confused even die-hard storm chasers who were waiting in the Naples area for the Category 3 storm to make landfall. Wilma arrived at 6:30 a.m. at Cape Romano, about 20 miles south of Naples. It was just the beginning of a BIZARRE TRACK that flooded the playground of the rich, then shot the storm across the state before becoming the MOST DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE TO HIT THE FORT LAUDERDALE AREA SINCE 1950. By coming into Cape Romano instead of Naples, Wilma was now far enough south to put Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the worst spot you want to be in during a hurricane - the northeast quadrant. It is not unusual to have a hurricane in October. Wilma actually makes the ninth major storm to thrive during that month - and the seventh to hit Florida. But Wilma was also a sort of meteorological Rocky - refusing to let a land mass like the Yucatan knock her out. She behaved as if she was on steroids, intensifying from a Category 2 to a Category 5 storm overnight - ANOTHER RECORD.

1 active area in the Indian Ocean -
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 200 NM radius of 12.5N 80.9E (off the east coast of India, near Madras) within the next 12 to 24 hours. The system is moving WNW at 12 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 MB.
INDIA - The low pressure that formed about 1,000 km south of Calcutta on Tuesday, further intensified into a depression on Wednesday. The system now lies over a huge expanse of the south-west Bay of Bengal. “The depression continues to gather strength and is likely to intensify further. There is a possibility that the system would develop into a cyclone. Met officials have been poring over the radar screen and charts for the past week, with heavy rain battering Calcutta and the districts from the night of October 18 till October 23, leading to floods in many areas. A strict watch is also being kept on the Andaman Sea, the source of many a cyclone over the Bengal and Orissa coasts at this time of the year.
INDIA - Since earlier this month, the northeast monsoon has brought torrential rains to many parts of South India. In Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, a grim flood situation shows no sign of easing off. In Tamil Nadu, over 50 people have lost their lives since October 1, including at least five in the last 24 hours. The rains have also seriously damaged infrastructure, flooding the Dharmapuri-Bangalore highway and causing breaches to develop in Srirangam dam in Trichy. Parts of Karnataka, too, are experiencing their WETTEST OCTOBER IN NEARLY 50 YEARS. For the last three days, two villages sandwiched between branches of the river Coleron in Perambalur district have been cut off by floods, leaving over 2,000 people marooned. The villages are completely inundated for over a kilometre. For 40 years, residents have come and gone from the villages by walking across the dry river bed.

FROM WILMA - HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING /SNOW -
VERMONT - An early season snowstorm dumped up to 20 inches of heavy snow in the mountains, and left 40,000 customers without power. "This is the worst fall snow storm damage we've seen since October of 1987. The storm damage is far worse than the ice storm of '98, and when the damage is tallied up, this will be ONE OF THE FOUR OR FIVE WORST STORMS IN RECENT MEMORY." Snowstorms in October are not unusual in Vermont "but to get this much snow this early is A BIT UNUSUAL."

EASTERN U.S. The early nor'easter fed by Hurricane Wilma dumped heavy rain and up to 20 inches of wet snow from New England to West Virginia, knocking out power to tens of thousands, closing schools and elevating rivers. Power was restored to many in affected areas but thousands remained without Wednesday morning. "We had a perfect storm, unfortunately. We had heavy, wet snow like wet cement on top of trees that still had their leaves on." Dozens of schools were closed in Vermont, western Maryland and West Virginia. The storm was reinforced by Wilma's travels up the Atlantic Coast. Wilma's spinning action pulled down cold air from Canada and mixed it with the hurricane's subtropical moisture. "It was a thin band of snow, and if you were under that band, you got pounded." The storm churned 20-foot seas that prompted commercial fishermen to stay on solid ground. It has been the WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD in Providence, R.I., with 15.07 inches of rain. Worcester, Mass., also TOPPED ITS OCTOBER RECORD with 15.52 inches so far this month.

CONNECTICUTT - High winds and intermittent rain sent trees falling and caused power outages yesterday, keeping public safety workers busy and BREAKING THE OCTOBER MONTHLY RECORD FOR RAINFALL in Fairfield County. The new October record is 11.35 inches of rain, breaking the 1952 monthly record for rainfall of 10.72 inches.

NEW YORK - The tail of Florida-bashing Hurricane Wilma has manifested itself in New York as howling wind and torrential rain. "It's autumn, it's New York and these things can happen," he said, "but the amount of rain they have had here has been FREAKISH." Fifteen hours of it, to be precise, to add to the 18 inches that had fallen in the past fortnight.
ALBANY, NEW YORK - More than 8 inches of precipitation, including a little snow, make this the area's fourth-wettest October on record. They even got some snow -"This has been VERY STRANGE, considering a couple of weeks ago it was almost 80 degrees." They recorded 8.23 inches of rain for the month, just over a half-inch behind the second wettest, October 1855, when 8.93 inches of rain fell. October 1955 had 8.83 inches of rain. The wettest by far was October 1869, when 13.48 inches of rain were recorded in Albany. The rain and snow were the result of a nor'easter that hugged the coast. In addition to the moisture it picked up, there was a stream of moisture being thrown toward the Northeast by Hurricane Wilma that was speeding by hundreds of miles out to sea.

FLORIDA - Residents in Lake County are bracing themselves for flooding from Wilma to reach them by the end of the week. Areas along the St. Johns River in Seminole County are flooded. As that water drains, it is expected to go north into flood-prone areas like Astor, in Lake County. Astor saw minor flooding during Wilma, but its highest water levels are expected by the end of the week.

HEAT -
Today is set to be the WARMEST OCTOBER October 27 IN BRITAIN ON RECORD, weather forecasters predicted Wednesday. Temperatures are set to soar to 21 degrees centigrade as a mini-heatwave hits the whole of the UK. The current record for October 27 is 20.3 degrees centigrade, which was measured in 1888 in London. With clear skies coming up from France, there will be plenty of sun and temperatures will soar." This month is set to be one of the five warmest Octobers on record.

Hurricane Wilma's rude visit Monday was followed by another EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT - a cold front. A RARE and powerful October cold front. The Hurricane Wilma cleanup began on PERHAPS THE MOST EXTRAORDINARY POST-HURRICANE WEATHER DAY IN RECORDED SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HISTORY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO RECORD LEVELS. Even meteorologists were buzzing about the hurricane/cold front double-whammy. The lowest high temperature ever recorded in Fort Myers on Oct. 25 was 72, in 1937 — that is, until Tuesday. Tuesday's high was a record 71, 14 degrees below the average high of 85 for the day. The low was 56, two degrees short of tying the record low of 54, set in 1982. The predicted low for Wednesday morning was 52, which would tie a record. Today's low temperature record was set in 1990.
FLORIDA - Temperatures in most of Central Florida will once again drop into the 40s as UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE in the area. "The one thing that is very unusual about the temperatures this morning is that they are all the way in the 40s. Average lows generally run in the 60s this time of year. Current temperatures are well below that." Temperatures dropped down to 39 degrees in parts of Ocala Wednesday morning and a 47 degree reading was recorded in Orlando. The record in Orlando for Oct. 26 is 47 degrees. "It is going to be chilly here for at least the next several days. Today, it feels like a January day." A general northern flow in Central Florida's air pattern will keep cooler weather in the area at least until the weekend.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1985 - a 5.9 quake struck Algeria, 6 killed.
In 1993 – Brush fires in southern California destroyed at least 800 homes.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.6 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 XIZANG

TROPICAL STORMS -

HURRICANE WILMA - About 6 million Floridians are without power today, two days after Hurricane Wilma plowed across the peninsula, and some could be in the dark for weeks. Longtime residents and veterans of past hurricanes appeared surprised by Wilma, which roared ashore early Monday with 125 mph winds, storm surge flooding and heavy rain. By Tuesday evening, Wilma was over the Atlantic, with top winds of 85 mph, was located 205 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Forecasters don't expect Wilma to make a second landfall in the United States, although it could scrape across southern Newfoundland in Canada this afternoon. The storm was bringing more rain to the water-logged U.S. Northeast, still recovering from widespread flooding earlier this month.

CUBA - No fatalities occurred in Cuba, even though Wilma was in the vicinity of the island for 10 days. In Mariel, a port east of Havana, the residents were watching as the huge waves were breaking against the shoreline. ''I've never seen waves like this." ''The ocean is furious, as if it wants to take back the land." (photo)

HURRICANE KATRINA - there were 22 million tons of waste created by the hurricane. It will take at least 3.5 million truckloads to haul it away.

FIJI - There is a higher chance of Fiji being hit by a Tropical cyclone this year compared to last year and the Weather Office is bracing itself for the worst. Fiji will be entering the cyclone season with an El Nino and a La Nina condition. This means that there will be a neutral phase which increases the chances of a tropical cyclone hitting them. The dry spell that they are facing right now will be short lived with the beginning of the wet weather in November.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
INDONESIA - The death toll from crushing landslides that smashed into two villages in Indonesia's Aceh province last week has reached 20, with around 250 people injured. The affected area is in the south of Aceh, a province on the northern tip of Sumatra island where the rainy season is in full swing. Many landslides in Indonesia are exacerbated by illegal logging that strips away natural barriers to such disasters.

BANGLADESH - Millions across Bangladesh Monday heaved a sigh of relief as rains stopped after intermittent downpour for sixth consecutive day, which the meteorologists termed "UNUSUAL". The rains snapped rail and road communication, damaged winter crops and 'aman' paddy, and washed away shrimps and fish from pisciculture farms across the country. Stagnant water at a number of places, both in urban and rural areas, paralysed daily life. The sudden spate of rain since Wednesday caused floods in many new areas, forcing thousands of people to leave their homesteads. Around 10 fishermen have been missing in the river Meghna from Sunday morning, probably because of the storm that hit the region in the morning. Generally, such unusual weather moves away within 24 to 41 hours, but in this case it will take more than that because it moves very slowly. "So much rain is unusual in late autumn, and it might have an adverse effect on the environment, such as the premature arrival of bitter cold."

SOUTH INDIA - Karnataka and Tamil Nadu continue to reel under floods, with Bangalore experiencing its WETTEST OCTOBER IN NEARLY 50 YEARS. The city had received 52.5 cm of rain by Tuesday afternoon, a new record for October. Authorities have closed the schools and colleges for two days. The power supply has been hit as 25 power transformers were damaged by the rain.

There is no respite for South and Eastern INDIA. More rain is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and the Northeastern states. Light snow is expected in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. With an active Northeast monsoon covering the entire peninsular India with heavy rain, the Stanley reservoir at Mettur has been receiving an inflow of more than two lakh cusecs for the FIRST TIME IN 44 YEARS, leading to water discharge and Cauvery overflowing in some areas. The water level is 121.5 feet against the dam’s capacity of 120 feet and officials have issued flood warning in villages on the banks. Another low pressure area is developing over Bay of Bengal. If it develops into a full-fledged cyclone, rain over South and East India will be many times more than the last week. A trough extends from north coastal Andhra Pradesh to sub-Himalayan West Bengal. There is another trough in the middle troposphere which is interacting with the first one, bringing rains in the Northeast.

VIETNAM - 57 people have perished in floods ravaging the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam and in the central region over the last several weeks. Thousands of hectares of rice and some dykes have been damaged. Thousands of people have been displaced by the floods that regularly hit the Mekong region.

NEVADA - Dark clouds that began moving into the South Shore Monday afternoon unleashed a wrath of rain, lightning and at least an inch of hail. The storm was a product of warm temperatures in the lower atmosphere that clashed with cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere, following a trough that moved into the Sierra via the Southern California coast.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1969 - a 5.6 quake struck Yugoslavia, 20 killed and 65,000 homeless.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS

HIMALAYAS - Landslides tumbled across the zone of the Oct. 8 earthquake, dramatizing not only the power of one of nature's great killers, but also how humans have brought tragedy upon themselves through massive deforestation and other ecological assaults on the mighty Himalayas. In Pakistan's quake-hit region, landslides swept away uncounted numbers of homes and severed roads, cutting off hundreds of communities. Mountain slopes were shorn away, exposing gray earth and rubble that still emit great clouds of dust two weeks after the quake. Aftershocks continue to trigger new landslides. "If there had been more trees we would not have lost as much. It is our mistake. "
BABIES DYING OF COLD, says doctor in quake zone - Chilling stories are emerging to back grim predictions of a second wave of earthquake deaths in Pakistan related to a lack of aid supplies and shelter.

VOLCANOES -
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, ECUADOR - A magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred on Saturday, apparently around the time that the Sierra Negra volcano begun to erupt on Isabela, the largest of the Galapagos Islands.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
HURRICANE WILMA - swamped and pounded southern Florida yesterday, killing four as it shattered high-rise windows, uprooted trees, destroyed mobile homes and cut power to almost 7 million people. It was a surprisingly strong Category 3 hurricane, having fed on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico after killing 17 people in a rampage through the Caribbean. Officials in Marathon said residents were stranded on rooftops while leaking propane tanks and gas lines caused small explosions. Wilma, a sprawling hurricane that covered much of Florida, was the eighth hurricane to strike the state in 15 months, an unprecedented display of nature's fury that climatologists say is the result of the Atlantic having swung back into a period of heightened storm activity that could last 20 years. Wilma was the strongest storm to hit the Miami area since August 1992.
Wilma should continue moving northeastward, along the way absorbing Tropical Depression Alpha and colliding with another weather system heading into New England from the west early today. "It's almost A BIZARRE-TYPE SITUATION. It's NOT SOMETHING YOU SEE EVERY DAY. It's a three-way coming together of systems." A high wind warning was issued for the Massachusetts coast, where Wilma will bring sustained winds of 40 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph. A wind advisory was issued for Rhode Island and central Massachusetts. In Maine, the storm was expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of rain, bringing Portland closer to a record rainfall for the month. “We see these kinds of October storms every five or ten years in Pennsylvania. ”
Wind gusts today will near 40 mph in Philadelphia, 50 mph in New York City and near 60 mph in Boston. In fact, it is not out of the question that hurricane-force winds will be felt along the New England coastline late today. Beach erosion, rip currents and tidal flooding are also likely along the East Coast today and Wednesday. And to top off the onslaught of bad weather, cold air will funnel southward from Canada on the west side of this storm. This will lead to rain changing to snow in many mountain ranges through the Northeast.
"Now for those of you who like apocalyptic visions, there is the thinnest of thinnest of possibilities that the northeast could see a once-in-a-century “perfect storm” develop over the next few days. Here’s the scenario, as unlikely as it is: The nor’easter barrels into the East Coast and butts heads with Wilma, which has not weakened much from its fury in Florida. It would turn into a super monster storm, much like the one immortalized in the book and movie, “The Perfect Storm.” But there’s a reason those perfect storms happen so rarely. “Nor’easters are cold and hurricanes are warm. They don’t like each other. It’s rare for the two disturbances to merge body and soul. What is much more common is what’s going to be happening here, where the tropical storm is weakening and feeds moisture into the nor’easter.”
CANADA - The Maritimes are getting ready for a pounding from the remnants of hurricane Wilma, as forecasters predict that southern areas may be lashed by wind gusts of up to 120 km/h and up to 70 mm of rain. "Now this one will be more potent than usual. We're expecting weather to deteriorate on Tuesday starting in the morning over Nova Scotia." The forecast rain was more bad news for New Brunwick, a province that's already had an unusually wet fall. "Already for the month of October, we have reached our normal rainfall amounts which is near 100 mm. Some regions of extreme southern New Brunswick have already experienced over 170 mm of rain since the beginning of October. So we do not really need such rainfall before the end of the month."
CUBA - Waters poured over Havana's famed seawall Monday, flooding up to five blocks of city streets, as Hurricane Wilma dumped up to 22 inches of water on some parts of the island. Wilma coincided with high tide, causing an UNPRECEDENTED STORM SURGE. The flooding at some points was three-feet deep. A village called Guanimar south of Havana and Alquizar were completely under water. ''Coastal areas of Havana sometimes flood for one or two blocks - but going to G. Avenue or Linea? I have never seen floods like that, ever." There flooding was not so much from heavy rain, but from the rising sea. In Mantua, 23 inches of rain fell. Guane saw nearly 15 inches and Matahambre, 13.
"I've never seen the sea come in so far, not even in the storm of the century (in 1993), and it is still rising." "It's amazing, the streets have turned into big canals."
Wilma sparked a "rare'' tornado on the Isle of Youth.

On the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, there is no Category 6. But Hurricane Wilma this week brushed up against where a 6 would be if the scale were logically extrapolated to include another category. And hurricanes are getting stronger, apparently fueled by global warming. Researchers expect that trend to continue. A Category 1 storm begins at 74 mph and a Category 5 at 156 mph. On average, there is about a 20 mph increment in wind speed between the categories. An extrapolation suggests that if a Category 6 were there, it would be in the range of 176-196 mph. Hurricane Wilma, which had maximum recorded wind speeds of 175 mph, would have been on the verge of breaking into this hypothetical new category. The scale was designed to measure the amount of damage inflicted by a hurricane's winds, and beyond 156 mph, the damage begins to look about the same. "If that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered. So I think that it's immaterial what will happen with winds stronger than 156 miles per hour."

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
NEW ORLEANS - The Lower Ninth Ward saw renewed flooding Monday when a high tide pushed water up through drainage systems. Two additional pumps were turned on to remove the two feet of water.

INDIA - Rescue workers struggled to deliver food and water Monday to at least one million people living in villages cut off by floods after six days of rains in India's West Bengal state. Rescue workers ferried boatloads of rice and sugar to coastal villagers but many people remained without supplies and faced hunger and dehydration. "More than half of the two million people in four coastal districts affected by the flooding still remain marooned in the submerged villages of East Midnapore district and the Sunderbans off the Bay of Bengal." At least 14 people had died in the floods. Two rivers in the mangrove-thick Sunderbans region overflowed their banks in the past week, flooding hundreds of villages and farms.

AUSTRALIA - Hail the size of peas fell in the tropics and 100 km/h winds lashed a luxury resort island during a "UNUSUAL" outbreak of thunderstorms across Queensland yesterday. A trough system combined with cold and humid air created ideal storm conditions. The severe storms SPANNED THOUSANDS OF KILOMETRES from the tip of Queensland to south of the border into NSW. "It's not unusual to see lots of storms around but to actually HAVE THEM COVERING THAT SORT OF AREA IS UNUSUAL." More storms have been forecast for the week.
Hail stones the size of oranges have been reported in the Laidley area in south-east Queensland, as a series of severe thunderstorms moves across the south of the state. "We've had very strong lightning activity all over eastern districts, we've had golf ball-sized hail reported at Roma and we have severe thunderstorm warnings for most east coast districts."
Severe weather warnings cover the ACT, the NSW Southern Tablelands and much of the north-east of the state north of Gosford and east of Bourke. A storm just north of Newcastle was looking particularly menacing on radar, with winds of more than 125kmh predicted. There are reports of hail the size of golf balls smashing windows, damaging cars and stripping trees near the Hunter Valley. They are warning of very heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding.
The savage storms which lashed Queensland have been blamed for two road deaths and an estimated $25 million in damage to crops. On the Gold Coast, the world's tallest residential tower, Q1, was reportedly struck by lightning eight times.
Current Australia Warnings

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1981 - a 7.4 quake struck Michoacan, Mexico, 3 killed.
In 1990 - a 6.0 quake struck the Hindu Kush Region, 11 killed.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays.

Monday, October 24, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 FLORES SEA
6.0 PAKISTAN
5.9 SEA OF JAPAN
5.2 LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.6 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes. In the Aegean Islands, seismologists were concerned over what they called the "three sixes" (last Monday's 6.0 and 5.9 quakes within the space of 4 hours, and Friday's 6.0 quake) all recorded in the same region. Seismologists were on alert after Friday's quake, which was followed by intense post-seismic activity, with the strongest aftershock recorded just four minutes after the main quake, with a magnitude of 5.3. The new strong quake caused concern among the local residents. The quake had been longer in duration than any of the smaller tremblers over the past two days. Aftershocks of 3, 4 or even 5 are anticipated.

PAKISTAN - A 6.0 aftershock, the strongest yet, has hit Pakistan. A total of 25 aftershocks were recorded throughout the day and their epicenters were located in the area 30-40 km north-west of Muzaffarabad. Out of these, two aftershocks were significant. The first tremor, measuring 5.2 on the Richter Scale, hit Mansehra town in North West Frontier Povince at 0029 hours local time while the second, of 4.9 magnitude, was felt at 0544 hours. Officials dismissed as rumours reports that the epicentres of the aftershocks were shifting towards Islamabad. A total of 896 aftershocks have been recorded since the 7.6 magnitude that struck northern parts of Pakistan and Pak-occupied Kashmir on October 8th.

AFGHANISTAN - Five Afghan persons were killed and six were injured in an earthquake Sunday morning in the southeastern province of Paktika. Six villages of the area have also been partially destroyed. Since the strong earthquake in Pakistan, aftershocks have become frequent than before. In another earthquake, five persons were killed in the Afghan southern province of Zabul on Saturday.

VOLCANO -
ECUADOR'S GALAPAGOS ISLANDS - The CHICO VOLCANO on Isabela island erupted late Saturday with a powerful explosion that spewed rivers of lava and a column of steam 20km high, but the nearby main town was left unscathed by lava flows. Three lava flows were slowly making their way toward the sea but they did not threaten the town. The last time the Chico volcano erupted was in 1978. The most recent volcano eruption in the chain occurred in May on the unpopulated island of Fernandina.

NEW ZEALAND - Researchers have uncovered evidence suggesting Mt Taranaki is overdue to erupt, possibly blanketing much of the North Island in ash and disrupting power and water supplies, farming and aviation. Although the volcano has shown little or no sign of activity for two centuries, the new research suggests it has erupted at least once every 90 years on average for the past 9000 years, with a major eruption every 500 years, the last occurred in 1655. “These events have been as frequent as large-scale floods in many rivers of New Zealand and future activity from this volcano may pose a more immediate threat to the North Island that previously realised.” Current monitoring should give at least six days’ and possibly as much as a few months’ warning of an eruption. Taranaki webcam and seismometer reading.

Is it a volcano that is emitting ash and smoke ever since the deadly earthquake struck parts of Pakistan and Kashmir? This is the question being asked by those who have visited Pakistan-administered Kashmir's Muzaffarabad locality. Geo, a private local television channel, ran a video film and also interviewed some local people there on Saturday. In its bulletin, the TV channel pointed out that ash, smoke and stones had been seen coming down from a hilltop many kilometers away since the quake two weeks back. The hill has been causing landslides ever since the day of the disaster. Some people say that they saw many unfortunate people falling into fissures created by the earthquake along roads and streets in Kashmir.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma - strengthened back into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 185 km/h as it sped toward Florida Sunday night and heavy rains began to lash Key West. The Florida Keys and along the southwest coast were being warned to brace for hurricane-force winds to hit at dawn today, along with tornadoes and a surge of seawater as much as five metres high. By late Sunday night, many streets in the Keys were already awash. At least three tornadoes had been spotted in the southern half of the state. Officials in the Keys estimated late Sunday that only about 10 per cent of the island chain's 78,000 residents had complied with orders to evacuate. Wilma will be the eighth hurricane to hit Florida since July 2004 and the Keys have already been evacuated four times this year. Wilma sideswiped Cuba on Sunday, lashing it with heavy rain and strong winds, knocking down power lines, and sending storm surges flooding into coastal communities. Pictures showed extensive damage on the Yucatan, where storm surges reached the third floor of some hotels Saturday, carried away entire beaches of sand and raging winds ripped roofs and walls from buildings and toppled power and telephone lines.
Mexico is scrambling to rescue thousands of tourists trapped in stifling shelters in its hurricane-hit Caribbean beach resorts before food, water and medicine shortages cause chaos. Seven people were killed in the storm. It was not clear how many tourists were stranded but one senior police official estimated there were about 20,000 just in Cancun. Many were short of food and water and becoming increasingly frustrated on Sunday as they faced a fourth night in cramped shelters with no electricity or running water.

Tropical Storm Alpha drenched Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rain on Sunday, killing at least five people and forcing thousands from their homes, before weakening over the mountains of Hispaniola. The storm dumped as much as 15 inches (38 cm) of rain over some parts of Hispaniola. Haiti is vulnerable to floods and mudslides because much of the impoverished country has been stripped of trees. The center of the storm had moved offshore from Hispaniola and was about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Great Inagua island in the Bahamas. Forecasters said there was a chance Alpha could briefly regain tropical storm strength before dissipating.
Tropical depression Alpha will move away from the southern Bahamas Sunday night, then out into the open Atlantic today. Global models all agree that the depression will be rapidly overtaken by and will merge with the expanding circulation associated with Wilma, within 24-36 hours.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

FLORIDA - A Saturday morning downpour and the flooding that followed caught many Broward County residents off guard, leaving them to wonder, What's going to happen when Wilma comes through? The storm was caused by offshore flow, or moisture blown in off the Atlantic. Wilma's presence in the Gulf created the conditions that helped the storm develop, and problems arose when the storm came over Broward and stopped moving. Up to eight inches of rain was dumped within a 2-mile radius, turning city streets into no wake zones and sending water into people's homes. In Oakland Park, the combination of flash floods and high tide maxed out the storm drains. "Interaction between Wilma a cold front over central Florida will allow rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches between late Sunday and Monday afternoon... mainly north of a line from Naples to West Palm Beach.

HAWAII - was expecting high surf, strong winds and heavy rain this past weekend as a large swell was set to produce wave faces as high as 30 feet on the North Shore Saturday and Sunday while a storm settled over the state, bringing heavy showers and strong tradewinds. "It will be very rough and ugly." The weather service issued a high-surf warning for the north-facing shores of all islands. The North Shore swell, the biggest of the season so far, was generated by a large storm off Alaska. Forecasters also warned residents that surges are likely for harbors in Kahului and Hilo. And wind will bring surf up to advisory heights for the state's east-facing shores, with 14-foot faces expected, an unusual swell for this time of year.

ITALY - Six people were killed as torrential rain battered southern Italy overnight, demolishing a bridge, sweeping away cars and derailing a Eurostar train. 20 passengers were injured when six carriages of a Eurostar train were derailed after a landslide swept away the earth beneath the rail tracks, leaving one carriage overhanging a chasm. The deluge was described as an "exceptional climatic event which can only happen once in a hundred years. In just three hours in a limited area last night we had 161 millimetres of rain – as much as the Apulia region gets in a whole year." Many roads, houses and factories in the area have been flooded. Fields of vegetables and olive trees were completely submerged but officials said it was too soon to put a value on the damage.

ENGLAND - Motorists were warned to take care as heavy rain and high winds were set to sweep across the country. The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning in England and Wales and localised flooding is expected.

NEW ZEALAND - The North Island's east coast was pummelled with the kind of rainfall that drops only once every 100 years on Friday night, stranding whole towns and cutting electricity and water supplies. Areas surrounding Gisborne, particularly Tolaga Bay, face a big clean-up after more than 300mm of rain fell in 24 hours in some places. Over 300mm was exceptional rainfall. "Statistically, it's a one-in-100-year event, but as we know, we can conceivably get them two or three years in a row." Electricity and phone blackouts, major slips and the closure of more than a dozen roads continued to cause problems for the cleanup.

INDIA - Bengal braced up for another 48 hours of rain, even as six people perished and lakhs were affected in the uninterrupted showers due to a low pressure belt off the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The Mets department's forecast of a dry spell from last evening came to naught as rain continued for the fourth successive day. Met officials said they were caught unawares by an unexpected change in the weather. ''As per the forecast, the existing low-pressure formation over Andhra and south Orissa coast has weakened. But another feeble low-pressure line extending from Arunachal to Tamil Nadu along Gangetic Bengal gained strength, and led to the fresh spell of rain. We cannot rule out rain continuing for a few more days. It all depends on the low pressure zone over Gangetic West Bengal." Co-existence of such low-pressure zones troughs is common around this time of the year and may be due to global climate change.

BANGLADESH - Unusual autumn rain in Bangladesh has damaged rail links and stranded thousands of commuters but may help crops. The rain has inundated large areas of southwestern and northeastern Bangladesh over the past four days. The rain damaged vegetable crops in some parts of the country. They recorded 50 mm (two inches) of rainfall on average across the country in six hours to 5 p.m. More rain was expected over the next couple of days. Monsoon floods kill hundreds of people and make millions homeless every year in Bangladesh and neighbouring states in India. But heavy rain in autumn is unusual.

SNOW -
NEPAL - Seven French and 11 Nepalese members, 18 out of a 22-strong climbing team, were killed in a snowstorm in the mountains of northwest Nepal. The four surviving Nepalese members of the team were rescued by helicopter as rescuers took advantage of a break in the weather four days after the group was reported stranded in a snowstorm during their attempt on Mount Kangru in the Manang near Annapurna. The 18 team members died on the mountain while four Nepalese, who were staying outside the tents, managed to save their own lives.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1927 - a 7.1 quake struck Chichagof Island, Alaska.
In 1980 - a 7.0 quake struck Central Mexico, 300 dead and 150,000 homeless.
In 1995 – A strong earthquake with numerous aftershocks jolted the south-western Chinese province Yunnan, killing at least 14.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 23, 2005 -
Short version today.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.8 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 BANDA SEA
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma - Storm surges have reached as high as the third story of some hotels as Hurricane Wilma batters Mexico's popular Cancun resort area. The Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon. Even though slightly weakened, it felled trees and tore off roofs as thousands stayed in emergency shelters. Winds of 140mph (225km/h) have damaged buildings considered hurricane-proof. "This is the equivalent of having four or five hurricanes of this size pass over one after the other, given the amount of time we have been suffering hurricane-force winds. Never in the history of Quintana Roo have we had a storm like this. The water is crossing over from the sea into the lagoon." The spectacle has remained both dramatic and unchanging for hours, with an increasing amount of debris blown from buildings as they slowly succumb to the storm.
Huge waves are crashing onto Cuba's westernmost tip, and heavy rains were reported to have cut off several small communities. Wilma is expected to linger over the Yucatan peninsula until early on Monday, currently with category 2 strength. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Wilma could again become a major hurricane today. The wind field is forecast to expand as it accelerates and crosses the Florida Peninsula. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
The stalled storm had battered the Mexican coastline for more than 24 hours and was expected to hang over the area for at least another 24 hours, raising the risk of disaster. "It's a monster, it is roaring all the time." Wilma dumped 590mm of rain on Isla Mujeres island yesterday, an UNPRECEDENTED DOWNPOUR for Mexico. "We are talking about A RECORD HURRICANE AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED." The storm was expected to dump between 250mm and 500 mm of rain across the Yucatan and western Cuba. Some areas could get up to 1000 mm. Wilma had an unusually wide diameter of 800km.
More from Mexico - Two people died from heart attacks and a 40-year-old man was killed when a tree fell on him as he stepped outside his house. Seven other people were seriously injured when a gas tank exploded in Playa del Carmen. Schools, hospitals, hotels and highways were substantially damaged. "A LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION WITHOUT PRECEDENT." There was particular concern for the residents of Cozumel, an island hammered by the storm, where only half of the 150,000 people heeded evacuation orders.

Tropical Storm Alpha developed overnight and gathered strength over the Caribbean Sea. The centre of the storm was located about 55 nmi SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. It's current track would take the center of the storm near or over the island of Hispaniola, shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, early today, bringing significant rainfall. It is possible that the cyclone will dissipate as it crosses the island. If it survives into the Atlantic, it will be overtaken by the circulation of Hurricane Wilma in about 36 hours, therefore the official forecast calls for the circulation to dissipate within 48 hours. Alpha is the 22nd named storm of this RECORD-BREAKING SEASON. Alpha BROKE THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY RECORD set in 1933 and marked the FIRST TIME THAT FORECASTERS HAVE RUN OUT OF NAMES and had to resort to the Greek alphabet for additional names. Alpha was expected to drop torrents of rain over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands, then turn out to sea and not threaten the U.S. mainland.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

TASMANIA - Landslides and road closures have caused traffic headaches along the north coast of Tasmania, with motorists stopped in their tracks as police warn of rising floodwaters. Residents in the town of Penguin, west of Devonport, may be forced to evacuate as police monitor the wall of a dam. Rain is expected to continue tonight in northern and eastern Tasmania, and flood warnings have been issued.

INDIA - Tens of thousands of people are marooned by floods in eastern India after three days of torrential rain that killed at least 10 people. The unseasonal rains came after the June-September monsoon, which this year triggered severe flooding in other parts of India such as the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra in the west and Assam in the north-east. Relief officials warned conditions could worsen for hundreds of thousands of people in the Sunderbans region, where two rivers were close to bursting their banks. Rains also hit Kolkata, eastern India's main trading hub, which was flooded for a second day.

DISCUSSION BOARD-
Pipa Talk Forum - earth changes, current news, diseases, green living, premonitions, predictions, etc.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1922 - a 5.2 quake struck Morocco, killing 2.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. NO NEW INFO ADDED SINCE LAST TIME.

Saturday, October 22, 2005 -
Finally, a somewhat calmer day.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 BANDA SEA
The large number of small Aegean quakes continued.

People living in seismically active regions have noted prequake signals for ages: Strange weather, low fog, unusual animal behavior, fluctuating water levels.

TROPICAL STORMS -

HURRICANE WILMA - There is some spread as to which part of Florida the center will cross - more northward towards Charlotte Harbor or more toward the Florida Keys. Once over the Gulf there is a window of opportunity from 24-48 hours for Wilma to re-intensify. It will likely reach Florida as a category 2 hurricane.
MEXICO - HURRICANE Wilma hammered deserted resorts along Mexico's Yucatan peninsula with howling winds and torrential rain overnight Friday, toppling trees and power lines as the centre of the storm roared ashore. Hurricane Wilma continued to batter Mexico's Caribbean coast with winds of almost 225km/h, a category 4 storm. The slow-moving nature of the massive storm meant the hurricane was especially dangerous. "The eye is enormous, which means that there will be a six- or seven-hour calm, people will think that the storm has passed, but that will not be the case." In Jamaica, the hurricane sparked widespread flooding and landslides. Earlier forecasts had put the storm in the US state of Florida on Friday but then the expected arrival was pushed back to Saturday - and then again to Monday.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
TASMANIA - HEAVY RAIN caused FLOODING along Tasmania's north-east coast. It has also caused landslides and road closures. Landslides had caused rocks to crumble across sections of the Tasman Highway. Rain is expected to continue.

INDIA - UNSEASONAL RAINS over the past three days, caused by a depression in the Bay of Bengal, brought life in north Bengal to a standstill. The incessant rain, accompanied by a cold wave, has killed numerous migratory birds in the Kulick sanctuary. A large number of Cormorant and Open Billstorks have fallen prey to the weather’s fury. Kharif crops have also been affected. In the Malda district, “unseasonal rain for five days at a stretch is something unprecedented”. Sales of anti-viral fever and anti-influenza medicines have gone up in the past few days.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1882 - a 4.9 quake struck southeast Oklahoma, felt over a wide area including Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday, October 21, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN
5.9 AEGEAN SEA ( plus many magnitude 3+ quakes)
5.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TURKEY - a 5.9 earthquake rocked the western Turkish city of Izmir early yesterday, causing one person to die of a heart attack and leaving several others injured. Panic gripped residents as the trembler struck at 00:40 a.m. (7.40am AEST) under the Aegean Sea, the fourth strong earthquake to shake the region since Monday. On Monday, three violent quakes, measuring 5.7, 5.9 and 5.6 respectively, shook the area in one day, leaving some 30 people injured. Turkey's top seismologist warned residents to be vigilant and stay away from damaged or derelict buildings as the region, which is crossed by several fault lines, was likely to be shaken by more earthquakes. "There is intense seismic activity in the region. We expect this activity to continue for some time but we cannot say until when."

VOLCANO -
PHILIPPINES - MAYON VOLCANO manifested increased level of restiveness on Tuesday and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology aired fresh warmings. Massive rock avalanches might occur in the area due to significant enlargement of the volcano’s dome and continued intrusion of lava file in the crater. The lava file, one of the main indicators of an upcoming eruption, increased to 7 meters in height during the first week of October. The lava file has reached up to 11 meters at the later part of this month. Other indicators of an impending eruption are the volume of sulfur dioxide gas emissions and the frequency of low intensity volcanic quakes. Gas emissions remained high ranging from 700 tons to 2,000 tons per day, which is an evidence of a high volume of sulfur dioxide exiting from the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
At 1 AM CDT the center of Category 4 HURRICANE WILMA was located about 90 miles (145km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma may regain category 5 strength before she approaches the Yucatan today. Wilma is expected to produce 10 - 20 inches of rain through Saturday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula, with isolated amounts of 40 INCHES possible, particularly over higher terrain in western Cuba. Large swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast today. Waves up to 20 feet are being experienced in portions of the south coast of the Isle of Youth.
In some ways, Wilma is another strange wrinkle in an already strange hurricane season. "This storm is doing things that have never been done before. It had a 2-mile-wide eye. That's ridiculous. It had a pressure of 882 millibars. I've been speechless watching this hurricane...I thought Wilma would be a major hurricane, but I didn't think it would be a Cat 5: It's already three-quarters through October. That's pretty unusual...This is Hurricane Season 2005. You might as well throw away the book." "The storm is over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, and wind shear is virtually non-existent. Then there's the size of the envelope: The circulation is drawing warm, moist air from the eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean."
FLORIDA - Lakes throughout Central Florida are filled to capacity, spilling into streets, yards and, in some places, homes. The region simply cannot take any more rain, and the threat of Hurricane Wilma is making residents and government officials anxious. As long as rainfall is no more than 7 to 9 inches, flooding throughout the southern portion of Central Florida should be manageable. Another problem is groundwater, which has become so high in some parts of Central Florida that it's seeping up through cracks in the pavement.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
NEPAL - HEAVY RAINS overnight caused the collpase of a hospital roof in western Nepal killing ten people and injuring at least seven others.

U.S. FORECAST -
During the next 5 days (October 20-24), the focus will be on where Hurricane Wilma tracks, currently forecasted to impact southern Florida around Oct. 22-23 and rapidly move north-northeastward off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a strong upper-air low/trough will develop and stall over the Great Lakes region, potentially bringing another round of heavy rain and flooding to the Northeast, including potential interaction (moisture) with Wilma. In the short-term, an upper-air low over the central Rockies will track east and generate showers from the central Plains eastward into lower New England, with cool air to the north and unseasonable warmth to the south of the system. A new Pacific storm system will produce another round of light to moderate precipitation to the Northwest. Mostly dry weather should prevail elsewhere.
For the ensuing 5 days from October 25-29, the odds favor drier-than-normal conditions in the middle third of the Nation and the Southwest, and above-normal precipitation in the Northwest and Northeast. Temperatures are expected to be subnormal in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, and warmer-than-usual in the Rockies, Plains, and upper Midwest.
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Two storms on a collision course could pummel Southern New Hampshire with winds and flooding early next week. Even if Hurricane Wilma passes far offshore, it could clash with another storm whirling over the Great Lakes region. The combined storms could dump more rain in a single storm than the Valley has seen since 1996, when parts of the region were flooded with 10 to 13 inches.
The water pressing against the battered wooden dam in Taunton continued to recede yesterday, but officials planned to pump more out to try to allow repairs ahead of a weekend forecast calling for heavy rain and flooding.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
NETHERLANDS - WINDMILLS, one of the Netherlands' trademarks, may go idle because of less wind as a result of climate change, Dutch scientists predict. New research shows scientists could have been wrong when they forecast years ago that global warming would cause more storms and wind in northwestern Europe. "We said that 10-15 years ago and what we see in the observations is that the climate is warming but the number of storms is actually decreasing. We don't have a good explanation for that." The traditional windy climate of northwestern Europe has spurred a rapid growth in windmills, mainly in the Netherlands and Germany, to provide alternative energy. Dutch windmills, however, saw declining energy production in the past decade because of less wind. New scenarios about the Dutch climate predict a change in atmospheric flows which means more moisture coming from the North Sea in winter and more frequent droughts in summer. Summer rainfall is also likely to become heavier because of rising temperatures, threatening an increase in river levels and floods in the low-lying Netherlands.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1923 – Start of 160-day heat wave in Marble Bar, Western Australia, during which the temperature did not fall below 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit).
In 1999 – A powerful 7.6 earthquake struck Taiwan in the pre-dawn hours, killing more than 2,300 and damaging 82,000 housing units. The quake caused some $9.2 billion in damages and noticeably altered the island's topography.
In 2003 – A series of massive wildfires in southern California raged across a wooded and suburban region surrounding Los Angeles and San Diego, killing at least 22 people and scorching about 300,000 hectares. Some 3,500 homes were destroyed.
In 2004 – Japan started the clean-up from its deadliest typhoon in over a decade, a day after the storm ripped across the country, killing 55 and leaving 24 missing.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, October 20, 2005 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 BANDA SEA


Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION (Indian Ocean, 291km NW of Diego Garcia)
5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 NEAR E. COAST EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.4 PAKISTAN
5.8 PAKISTAN
The Aegean Sea and surrounding areas continue to experience multiple small quakes.

JAPAN - The earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale rocked Tokyo and the surrounding area last night, briefly shutting down an experimental nuclear reactor. "The building rolled for 40 seconds or so but no objects fell from shelves or racks." There were no fears of tsunami waves resulting from the quake which occurred at 8.44 pm. Japan endures 25 per cent of the world's major earthquakes and has built its infrastructure accordingly, with Tokyo's high-rises designed to withstand powerful tremors.

PAKISTAN - A series of fresh landslides have been triggered by two strong aftershocks from south Asia's earthquake, inflicting more damage on the already hard-hit cities of Balakot and Muzaffarabad in northern Pakistan. Because so much of the damage is in isolated pockets, many people - maybe 500,000 - may not get help in time and some of the injured have no chance of survival.
Every tale is more painful than the next in the earthquake zone.
The death toll soared to 79,000 Wednesday from South Asia's mammoth earthquake, making it ONE OF THE DEADLIEST QUAKES IN MODERN TIMES. More aftershocks rattled the region, sending up huge clouds of dust from steep-sided mountain valleys where villages lie in pieces. "Many people out there, we are not going to get to in time. Some people who have injuries don't have a chance of survival."

The author of a new book about the 1906 San Francisco quake, “A Crack in the Edge of the World", says, “We’re living in a period of unusual seismic activity; the floating rafts of rock on which the earth’s surface sit are grinding, sliding, moving over one another. The year 1906 was similar, earthquakes and seismic eruptions in Ecuador, Formosa, and Vesuvius occurred along with the San Francisco quake."

SAN DIEGO, CA - A 4.1 quake struck at 1:51 am and was an aftershock of a 4.9 quake recorded in the same general area on Sunday.

SOUTH DAKOTA - An earthquake was detected Tuesday evening four miles north of Howard. The quake measured 3.1 on the Richter Scale and occurred at 9:43 p.m. There were no reports of property damage. The USGS said damage generally doesn't occur until the earthquake magnitude reaches above 4 or 5.

VOLCANOES -
Officials in West New Britain province link the eruption of Mount Garbuna,which burst into life earlier this week after hundreds of years of dormancy, with the eruption of Mount Langila earlier this year. A thousand people live in the village closest to the volcano. 20,000 people live in the Talasea district and the main threat today is ashfall.

Montagu Island in the remote SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS in the South Atlantic - Mount Belinda has been in a persistent state of eruption since 2001, and is now entering its fifth year of activity. Far from slowing down, the activity throughout 2005 marks the highest levels yet. An increase in activity in the fall of 2005 has produced an active 3.5-kilometer-long lava flow, extending from the summit cone of Mount Belinda all the way down into the sea.

TSUNAMI -
The National Weather Service accidentally triggered a tsunami warning alert across Oregon this morning. The Oregon Emergency Management office says the National Weather Service was conducting an internal test when it was accidentally sent out on radio stations statewide.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 715 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, chances for intensification seem to be diminishing. (This depression formed on the 14th, dropped below monitoring level on the 18th, then reintensified on the 19th. This system has been a bit of an enigma by not being able to maintain deep convection for any significant amount of time. The most likely culprit is dry air seen in the water vapor pictures.)

1 in the Atlantic -
Hurricane Wilma has became THE MOST POWERFUL STORM EVER RECORDED IN THE ATLANTIC and is now hurtling toward Mexico and the US coast with terrifying winds. The US National Hurricane Centre warned that the "potentially catastrophic" behemoth, packing winds of 260km/h, continued to swirl toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The peninsula could be hit by hurricane conditions in the next 24 hours. Yucatan could be hit by storm surge flooding of up to 3m above normal tide, along with "large and dangerous battering waves," if Wilma's eye makes landfall on the peninsula. Florida was bracing for Wilma to arrive late on Saturday, and a state of emergency was declared in the Keys. Florida's governor was downcast at the prospect of a fresh hit. "Why us?" he said. "How does a storm take a sharp 90-degree turn?"

CENTRAL AMERICAN NATIONS - already reeling from flooding and mudslides earlier this month in the aftermath of hurricane Stan, are now bracing for even more damage from hurricane Wilma. Heavy rains are already pounding the region and the storm is being blamed for at least 13 deaths in Haiti and Jamaica. When Stan hit Guatemala, about 1800 died. "There was no emergency plan. No one knew what to do. Lives would have been saved if they had." In El Salvador, conditions were just as savage, but the number of dead is measured in the dozens, not the thousands. "We protected ourselves in case of emergency." A neighbourhood in San Salvador not only has its own shelter, it has organized its own emergency plan, with regular community meetings, someone to watch the weather and an evacuation bell to ring.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

CALIFORNIA - Are they getting a replay of October 2004? Last year at this time, San Diego was in the middle of a round of deluges that contributed to the wettest October in city history. The rains started there Oct. 17; by Oct. 21, Lindbergh Field had recorded 1.82 inches. An additional 3.16 inches fell about a week later, pushing the total to 4.98 inches – 1.31 inches more than had ever been recorded during October. Normal for the entire month is 0.44 of an inch. A rather unusual cutoff low got things rolling in mid-October last year, and it sort of opened the storm door for the heavy rains late in the month. This year, a very similar cutoff low cranked up the machine. Last year in early October, a cutoff low settled over Nevada, then kicked out to the east. Then a second low moved in to fill the void. Weather Service forecasters call such storms "dry inside sliders," because they drop down inland and don't have a lot of moisture associated with them. That second low then moved west across California, which is not the typical pattern. The low then went completely offshore – far enough to create Santa Ana conditions. "That doesn't happen very often – probably once every three or four years." While the low was out at sea, it pulled in subtropical moisture. This week's storm was also an inside slider, but to use a baseball term, it caught a bit of the plate. It moved down through central California. And then, like last year, the cold core of the storm moved off the coast. However, the low did not move as far offshore, nor did it hang out there for as long as the storm last year. The recent storm also developed a front associated with it, but unlike last year, the front was to the south of us. Last year, the front was more to our west and north. In the three Octobers prior to last year, San Diego recorded a total of 0.04 of an inch. When they do get storms in the transitional seasons of spring and fall, they tend to be cutoff lows like the ones they experienced these last two years. What's odd has been the lows' pattern of going in, out and then back in again.

BIRD FLU -
Several countries in Europe and Asia are reporting fresh cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain among poultry, sparking new fears that humans could be at risk. Fresh outbreaks have been reported in Romania and Russia on the same day as China said it had lost thousands of fowl to the killer virus. (map with migratory birds' flyways and countries with outbreaks of bird flu)
East Africa needs urgent help to combat the bird flu virus which could soon spread there, the United Nation's food agency, the FAO is warning. Confirmation that the potentially deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has already arrived in Turkey and Romania suggests it is being carried by migrating birds. These known routes end in East Africa's Rift Valley where farming patterns closely resemble those in Asia. The first birds could arrive in North Africa and then East Africa in the coming weeks.
Common sense measures can help individuals protect themselves. Number one is hand-washing, a surprisingly effective way to prevent all sorts of diseases, including ordinary influenza and the H5N1 virus that everyone now fears may jump into humans and cause a catastrophic pandemic. Number two - do not try to buy your own personal supplies of Tamiflu, one of two drugs shown to work against avian influenza. And number three, stay home if you do get sick.

DISASTER PLANNING -
Governments too often ignore risks of natural disasters like hurricanes and earthquakes and could save lives and billions of dollars with better planning, says an international study. Over the past century, the number of recorded natural disasters surged to 2,800 per decade from 100. "It's time to change the mindset of governments, who tend to plan too little for natural disasters." "Investments in reducing vulnerability are almost always significantly smaller, by a factor of perhaps 2-5, than dealing with the disaster itself."

Statement by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff to the United States House Select Committee on Hurricane Katrina.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1870 - a damaging earthquake struck Canada between Montreal and Quebec.
In 1986 - an 8.3 quake struck the Kermadec Islands region generating a tsunami.
In 1991 – an earthquake struck the Himalayan foothills in India, killing at least 341 people and destroying tens of thousands of homes.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.4 PAKISTAN
5.8 PAKISTAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.5 IONIAN SEA (the Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea continue to have many small quakes)
5.1 PERU
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

TURKEY - The two strong undersea earthquakes that shook a major port city in western Turkey on Monday, damaged buildings, prompting terrified residents to run from their homes and jump from windows, and injuring at least six people. Scientists warned there could be more quakes and aftershocks during the next few days and urged residents to stay away from damaged buildings.

VOLCANOES -
VANUATU - Vanuatu authorities are warning people to stay off Mount Yasur volcano on Tanna island. Seismic monitors have measured a surge in activity over the last two weeks. "The volcanic seismicity, recorded at the proximity of Yasur, shows an increase of activity since mid-September 2005, and this could be the warning signs of high explosive activity."

PALU ISLAND IN EASTERN INDONESIA - The volcano Mount Rokatenda has increased activity since Saturday, with people living on the slopes of the mountain abandoning their homes in fear of a larger eruption. Rokatenda has been billowing clouds of white smoke during the past few days, with villagers living on or near its slopes reporting a series of small tremors. The increased activity comes after Mount Egon's eruption in the province in September last year, which forced thousands of people to flee their houses for safety.

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Geological Survey said on Saturday that seismic activity had been slowly increasing at Mount St. Helens the past few days. But scientists say they don't expect any significant change in the dome-building eruption that has been going on for more than a year in the volcano's crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI was 176 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan. Powerful Typhoon No. 20 is likely to pound the Izu Island chain this morning, bringing heavy rain.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Wilma was 141 nmi NE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. An Air Force reconnaissance plane has reported 884MB, THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. This measurement is awaiting calibration. The previous record is 888 MB associated with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Rainfall expected - Cuba through Friday, 10-15 inches average, 25 inches in mountainous terrain. Cayman Islands and Jamaica through Thursday, an additional 5-10, possible 15 inches. Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday, 4-6 inches, isolated 8-12 inches. Wilma should weaken as she turns towards Florida at the end of the week.
Wilma picked up force Tuesday, turning into a Category 2 hurricane as it menaced the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. By afternoon, it was registering top winds of near 130 kilometers per hour, and threatening to get stronger. Wilma is the 12th hurricane in the 2005 Atlantic storm season, which ties a 1969 record for the highest number of hurricanes in a single season since weather records began in 1851. This year has already tied a 1933 record for the highest number of named Atlantic storms, with Wilma's christening over the weekend.
Hurricane Wilma triggered mudslides that killed up to 10 people in Haiti as the season's record-tying 21st storm strengthened rapidly on Tuesday. frozen orange juice futures closed at a six-year high on Tuesday amid fears Wilma could ravage Florida groves that had just begun to rebound from the hurricanes that destroyed 40 percent of last year's crop. More than 5,000 people were evacuated in eastern Cuba, where two days of rainfall caused floods and mudslides. The Florida Keys, a chain of islands connected to mainland Florida by a single road, planned to order visitors to leave on Thursday and to evacuate 80,000 residents on Friday.
Four storms - Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma - have formed this month and is double the October average of two storms. Six is the record, set in October 1950 and 1887. "Six weeks remain in this year's hurricane season, and although activity in the Atlantic Basin decreases, tropical storms and hurricanes are still possible." One storm forms in November, on average, once every three years. As many as two storms have formed in November, most recently in 2001.
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - Unusually big waves, many more than 25 feet high, flooded Maracas Bay and the surrounding area on Sunday, due to three separate weather systens in the region. Huge waves were generated in the Caribbean on Sunday due mainly to swells generated by tropical depression #22 which formed nine days ago north of Puerto Rico. In addition, waves from Tropical Storm Wilma have also contriubted to the huge waves. Another weather system, although upper level in origin but eventually reaching the surface , has generated and contiues to generte rough seas to the NE of Trinidad. The Met Office has admitted that it was "unusual for energy emanating from these three systems, the latter two in particular, to sustain itself for that distance to T&T." The Seismic Research Unit has ruled out underwater earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions as possible causes, therefore the huge waves can not be classified as tsunamis. The shoreline was littered with vultures feasting on dead fish, and debris brought in by the waves.

GUYANA - The East Coast of Demerara and Lenora on the West Coast were under water yesterday as spring tides overtopped the country's seawall and threatened new flooding. Residents may need to be evacuated should the tide rise even higher. Efforts were underway to obtain boulders from other projects to cushion the impact of the tide. Areas of Jamaica have been hit by heavy rains from Wilma with some people in shelters there.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

IRAN - A typhoon, with winds of up to 90 kph, hit some rural areas in the provincial capital of Ardebil in northwestern Iran Monday, killing two and injuring one. The met office said the typhoon will gain speed in the next three days as it goes through the cities of Ardebil, Garmi and Meshgin-Shahr in this northwestern province. It has already caused widespread damage to urban and rural facilities and huge losses to gardens and farmlands, killing one in Meshgin-Shahr.

COLUMBIA - Heavy rains triggering mudslides on Colombia's mountainsides have killed at least 43 people and prompted evacuations of homes in the coffee-growing region over the weekend. 22 people are missing as the seasonal rains continue to pound northwestern Colombia. Officials said this year's rainy season has become the worst of the last five years and warned that the death toll was likely to rise as they appealed for aid and medicine.

BANGLADESH - Thousands of people were waiting for food and aid in flooded parts of northern Bangladesh on Saturday. Almost 1,000 people were waiting for help in Dilarpur, one of many villages in the Rangpur district affected by the floods that have killed 20 people and damaged crops and infrastructure over the past two weeks. "There are at least 20 villages in Badarganj sub-district (of Rangpur) like Dilarpur where thousands of people are living unfed or half-fed following the floods." The floods washed away some 100,000 mud-walled houses, making at least half a million people homeless in the region.

INDIA - Heavy rain and strong winds have killed at least 22 people in southern India this week and another 10 were feared dead, many of them washed away or electrocuted. More than 75 people were killed due to electrocution, house collapses and drowning in Andhra Pradesh last month after a storm caused heavy rains and flooding.

SUMATRA - Flooding returned across the archipelago on Monday with three people killed in South Tapanuli regency and 25 houses damaged in the South Malang area of East Java province. The flash flood descended from nearby forest areas, making it hard for the three persons to run for cover. "They died after being hit by logs coming down from the hill." Residents and police personnel were continuing the search for a missing person, who was believed to have been swept away by the strong current.

NEW ZEALAND - The skies opened up above Te Aute Monday night closing SH2, flooding parts of Te Aute College and depositing piles of hail stones. Torrential rain hit Central Hawke's Bay north of Waipawa, beginning about 4.30pm and growing in strength over the next two hours. "We started having hail but it wasn't cold. And then I thought, blow me down, there was hail the size of my little finger." Thunderstorms are not common in Hawke's Bay but Monday's was the result of warm ground temperatures and plenty of moisture in the air.

MASSACHUTSETTS - The dam upstream of Taunton deteriorated overnight on Monday, buckling and losing timbers as the reservoir behind it rose quickly after heavy rains that have flooded much of the U.S. Northeast in the past week. The century-old wooden dam could rip apart at any time, sending a two-metre wave of water roaring through a city of 50,000. Officials in the city of Taunton, about 65 kilometres south of Boston, have ordered thousands of people to leave their homes and closed schools and highways. "Water's going under the dam. It's going through some areas that are weakened and there's every prospect that it will give way and we'll have a very significant water event."

RHODE ISLAND - Torrential rains and flooding have damaged Rhode Island water plants, allowing raw sewage to rush into swollen rivers and the bay's shellfish beds.

SNOW -
NEW HAMPSHIRE - A freak storm dropped 30.4 inches of snow on the summit of Mount Washington this weekend, almost three times what the mountain averages for the entire month of October. Snow drifts were six feet tall. The winds exceeded 100 miles per hour. "It's just absolutely insane. Really absurd. It could have been February out there." About two-thirds of the snowfall arrived Sunday night, and it could be a record for this time of the year. The storm was probably caused in part by the same extreme weather systems that brought last week's steady rain. This autumn has been filled with unpredictable weather, and the early snowfall doesn't predict anything one way or the other for the upcoming winter.

OZONE HOLE -
Depletion of the ozone layer above Antarctica, caused by emissions of industrial chemicals, seems to have peaked, indicating that global environmental pacts are working. The seasonal hole above the South Pole and Antarctica is the third largest ever, but is now shrinking after falling short of the record years of 2003 and 2000. It peaked at 26.9 million sq kms on September 19, 2005, compared with 29 million sq km in September 2003, which most scientists say was the record. "It doesn't look as if the ozone hole is going to get any bigger (in coming years). It seems like we have reached a plateau.."

ODD -
INDIANA - More Fort Wayne residents have reported hearing more of those mysterious earth-shaking booms. After four months of silence, residents of a neighborhood on the city's northeast side say they heard two of the booms within hours of each other Monday. The booms, which rattle homes, have been heard primarily on the northeast side over the last year. Police investigations have not found an exact cause for the huge booms.

CALIFORNIA - A year after firefighters extinguished a small wildfire in the southern California mountains, geologists are still struggling to understand how a landslide apparently sparked the blaze. One possibility is that the landslide exposed a mix of minerals to the air, which promptly began oxidizing. This chemical reaction may have given off enough heat to trigger the fire. But that explanation remains his top choice simply because the other alternatives - including geothermal heat, radioactivity, and an alien conspiracy - have all been ruled out. (photo)

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1930 - a 4.2 quake struck near Napoleonville, Louisiana. Their largest historical quake.
In 1935 - a 6.2 quake struck Helena, Montana, 2 killed.
In 1991 - a 7.0 quake struck northern India. Two events about 1.6 seconds apart. At least 2,000 people killed and 18,000 buildings destroyed.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005 -

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.6 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.9 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
6.0 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 NEAR W. CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.8 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.9 AEGEAN SEA (plus over 40 smaller quakes)
5.6 AEGEAN SEA

TURKEY - A second strong earthquake with a magnitude of 5.9 shook a port city in western Turkey, only hours after a magnitude 5.7-quake sent terrified residents running from their homes. Izmir is Turkey's third largest city with a population of three million people. The first quake struck at 8.45am (0545 GMT) on Monday and was centred in the Aegean Sea off the coast of Izmir. It collapsed the walls of some houses, shattered windows in the town of Urla, just west of Izmir, and caused cracks in some buildings in the town centre. but no injuries. The second quake, which struck at 12.45pm, caused further damage, smashing windows. The quake also shook the Greek islands of Chios, Samos and Ikaria, but no damage or injuries were reported.

INDONESIA - People in certain parts of Banda Aceh's westernmost province, which lies on the northernmost tip of Sumatra Island, still feel aftershocks from the December quake at least 20 times a day. An earthquake measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale jolted the Indonesian tsunami-stricken province of Aceh early on Monday.

VOLCANOES -
WEST NEW BRITAIN, PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Mt Garbuna started erupting with intense activity at 10pm on Sunday evening and it continued into Monday morning when it subsided but emissions of thick dark ash clouds of up to two to three kilometres continued. However, the disaster office reported last night that volcanic activity intensified again as of 3pm yesterday. Experts from the Rabaul Volcano Observatory will be rushed to Talasea district to assess the sudden eruption of the dormant volcano. More than 20,000 people in the Talasea district are at risk of being affected by the eruption. No monitoring equipment was installed on the mountain and therefore the eruption caught everyone by surprise. Villagers reported of hearing rumbling and jet-like noises accompanied by an earthquake on Sunday morning before the eruption. Fine ash emissions from the mountain have fallen on Garu village and its surroundings, with drinking water believed to be contaminated by sulphuric ash. The area consists of three volcanic peaks, Krummel, Garbuna, and Welcker. The lower peaks of Garbuna volcano contain the most extensive thermal field in PNG. The date of the last eruption is unknown.

EL SALVADOR - At Llamatepec Volcano crater activity is anomalous, changing and unpredictable and, according to the persistent vibrations, experts expect an eruption similar to that causing two deaths on October 1, when more than 6,000 people had to be evacuated. Once seismic activity started, authorities declared state of alert in areas around the volcano and prohibited tourists from ascending to Cerro Verde. The abrupt eruptions of the volcano caused underground waters to rise in Cuntan and La Floresta, near the city of Izalco. Experts have detected a slight increase in emissions of sulfur dioxide. According to official data, this volcano, which last erupted in 1904, becomes active every one hundred years.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI was 367 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 538 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, appears to be slowly heading west, but it has degenerated into a swirl of low clouds.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Wilma was 210 nmi E of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. She could become a hurricane today. Expected to move west from her current stationary position, but her movement could be erratic. Currently projected to be approaching Florida as a major hurricane on Saturday.
JAMAICA - Persistent heavy rains from the very slow-moving tropical depression, southwest of Negril Point, Sunday dumped millions of gallons of water on the island, causing flooding in several parishes. Flood water from the Chalky River caused the eastern bank of the Chalky River to collapse, blocking Weise Road, washing out homes and cutting off access to all communities within the vicinity. Fishermen and other marine interests were advised to exercise caution as strong gusty winds and rough seas were expected over the waters to the south and west of the island.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

GUATEMALA - Mudslides triggered by hurricane Stan have created as many as 2,500 orphans in the 'forgotten' disaster in Guatemala. Thousands of homes were destroyed after heavy rains brought mud, trees and rocks crashing onto several villages in the Central American nation on Oct. 5. The official death toll is more than 650. Another 400 are missing. Emergency workers estimate both numbers could rise dramatically. News coverage of the Central American disaster has been limited, as it came on the heels of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and the massive earthquake in Pakistan and India. Hundreds of families who managed to flee the slide are crammed into churches in a nearby town, where they have been waiting in cramped conditions for nearly two weeks.

CANADA - Flooding has affected many areas in central Quebec and the Eastern Townships, driving 150 people from their homes and forcing Bishops University to cancel classes. The worst-hit area is in and around Sherbrooke, Que., where 100 millimetres of rain fell over the weekend.

CALIFORNIA - Drenching rains, thunder, and lightning were being blamed Monday morning for numerous power outages throughout the Coachella Valley along with road closures and some minor flooding. Motorists, across the region, were rerouted after numerous roadways were shutdown due to the deluge, which dumped less than an inch of water on area streets. In Indio, rains and winds are being blamed for a rock slide that happened shortly before 7:30 a.m. The National Weather Service stated that the rock slide was caused by a flash flood along State Route 74 near Big Horn Drive. More rain is anticipated through the rest of the week.

AVALANCHE -
An airbag system that can help a person float above a moving avalanche is widely used in Europe. "The ABS avalanche backpack is a lifesaver, literally a lifesaver. In 43 deployments, there's only been one fatality." The avalanche airbag backpack inflates in two seconds when its ripcord is pulled, because aluminum cylinders fill it with compressed nitrogren. The life-saving device is intended to bring the wearer above snow rushing down the mountain.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
The Inuits in Canada say the weather became more unpredictable 10 to 15 years ago. Inuit elders used to make long-term forecasts by looking at the clouds. Now they say the weather is too unpredictable to try. "In the spring the ice used to melt gradually, now it is fast. We used to have eight seasons, now it is only four." Wildlife is not behaving as it used to. Caribou migrations have changed. Hunters say they are travelling further from their traditional routes. Scientists have documented the arrival in the Arctic of mayflies, blackflies and wasps, never seen there before. Frobisher Bay, formerly frozen solid at this time of the year, now it is navigable until December. Last year four experienced hunters were travelling back on a long-established route across the sea ice in February, when the floes should have been set hard. They were travelling fast on skidoos when they ran into open water covered by slush in poor visibility. All died. "The land is becoming a stranger to the Inuit."

BIRD FLU PANDEMIC -
What can the average person do, if anything, to prepare for the possibility of a global flu pandemic? The final genetic makeup of the pandemic strain will not be known until the pandemic actually begins, at which point it will take at least six months to manufacture the first batches of vaccine. Three things can be done - Store a quantity of the right antiviral or flu fighting medications. Maintain optimal bodily health. Store a quantity of food and other life necessities in the event a pandemic disrupts normal services for a period of weeks or months.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays.

Monday, October 17, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.6 AEGEAN SEA
5.6 AEGEAN SEA (plus 21 smaller quakes)
5.8 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND-
(oddly a 6.9 quake struck North of New Zealand this same day in 1977)
5.6 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
6.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.6 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
5.3 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 MARSHALL ISLANDS REGION
5.8 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

An earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale occurred off the coast of California. The quake struck 84 km south-southeast from San Clemente Island, California, and 112 km west-southwest from Coronado, California at 6.15am (AEST). The USGS described the temblor as a "light earthquake". A spate of quakes, including a 7.0 magnitude quake in June, has made residents of the Golden State jumpy and heightened fears that a so-called "big one" could be on its way.

The death toll from South Asia's massive earthquake is at least 40,000 in Pakistani Kashmir, bringing the total dead in Pakistan past 53,000. The toll could still rise far higher. "There are still cities which are not cleared of debris and the death toll could go to 70,000 or 80,000. It is the worst tragedy in our history."
Four children, aged between a few months and nine years, were pulled alive from the rubble of the Kashmir earthquake overnight, eight days after it pulverised a wide region.

VOLCANOES -
In El Salvador, the Santa Ana volcano remains in a period of increased activity. Monitoring centers have recorded both activity and a constant low frequency vibration; a 5 km radius exclusion zone remains at red alert. The Chaparrastique volcano in the East (San Miguel) entered into an increased period of activity on the 14th with several seismic events causing alarm among people living nearby. It is 10 kms west of the third largest city, San Miguel. 32,000 people remain in shelters (65,000 were originally evacuated). This figure includes both people evacuated as a result of both volcanic activity in Santa Ana and the widespread flooding. 1.5 million people have been directly affected by Hurricane Stan and subsequent floods and mudslides. It is still difficult to reach many areas of the country where precarious conditions threaten the health and sanitation of affected families. In addition, most shelters are reported to be overcrowded and health centres are collapsing due to the great influx of people needing assistance. Rain was forecast for the rest of the week in the western and southwestern regions.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI was 367 nmi E of Kadena AB, Okinawa, heading northeast.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 396 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico, slowly heading west. May strengthen to hurricane status within 72 hours.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Wilma (Depression 24) was 164 nmi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica. It is expected to steadily strengthen to hurricane status during the next few days. Long-term forecasts show the storm would likely move west and north, putting the storm in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Forecasters said water temperature and other conditions were favorable for it to become a significant hurricane. Only the possible land interaction with the NE Yucatan precludes forecasting Wilma to become a major hurricane by 120 hours."Once storms get into the Gulf of Mexico, I'm aware of only one storm on record that dissipated. It has almost nowhere to go except land somewhere." The depression is expected to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas. This is the 21st named tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season. This ties the record set back in 1933.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
NEW HAMPSHIRE - On the 10th day, the sun came out, but the rivers were still high and many roads were still closed Sunday after nine days of heavy rain and flooding in New Hampshire. The wind was strong with gusts of up to 50 mph expected. Besides flooding, another concern Sunday was the strong wind and potential power outages. Many trees are now sitting in mud, and a strong gust could push over an entire tree, taking down power lines.

WILDFIRES -
The Russian capital remained shrouded in a blanket of smog for a second day Thursday. Moscow officials said forecast rain showers would bring little relief as winds continued to blow in smoke from peat fires in the surrounding region. According to official forecasts, southwestern winds will keep on blowing over Moscow for the upcoming 5 days, and they are expected to bring more smoke and polluted air into Russia’s capital. The source of acrid smog, covering Moscow and much of its region, is in the southwestern part of Moscow’s suburbs, where forest fires started burning recently.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1966 - an 8.1 quake struck near the coast of Peru, 125 dead, 20,000 homeless, generated a tsunami.
In 1977 - a 6.9 quake struck north of New Zealand.
In 1989 – an earthquake struck northern California, killing more than 60 people.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 16, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.3 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 MARSHALL ISLANDS REGION
5.8 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

Largest quakes yesterday -
6.4 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
6.0 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN KASHMIR

The powerful 6.4 earthquake that struck off the east coast of Taiwan overnight, rattled the capital of Taipei without causing any casualties or damage. The quake struck at 11:51pm local time with an epicentre around 250 kilometres east of the capital in the East China Sea. The quake's impact was reduced because it struck about 180 kilometres under the sea bed.

The death toll from Pakistan's earthquake rose sharply to nearly 40,000, with the president warning the numbers could jump still higher as relief teams reach more villages in the endless folds of the Himalayan mountains. Homeless survivors searched desperately for blankets and tents to brace against plunging temperatures. The suddenly frigid weather in some hard-hit areas was an ominous sign that winter was fast approaching - with thousands of villagers still cut off from any aid whatsoever a week after the magnitude 7.6 quake hit the region. Heavy rain began falling in many stricken towns and snow fell in the surrounding mountains, disrupting efforts to help an estimated 2 million people still lacking shelter. Only 18,000 tents have been distributed so far to house them. Officials say 200,000 houses were destroyed by the quake. Rebuilding Pakistan is extimated to cost "close to $5 billion." U.N. officials have estimated the reconstruction will take 10 years.
At least four villagers have been killed in aftershocks near the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir. The first measuring 5.4 on the Richter Scale occurred at 1.08 am (IST) and lasted for about two seconds. The second tremor hit the area at 9.55 am (IST).
A 45-year-old woman was killed at the village of Udoosa, and three others rescued, after they were caught under a landslide triggered by the 5.4 tremor in Uri sector of Jammu and Kashmir. Udoosa, along with other border villages, was devastated by the earthquake last weekend which has claimed 1,195 lives in the state so far.

The recent return of magnitude-5.0 temblors in California - In Southern California, there have been three earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0 and four others above magnitude 4.5 that have hit since April. "We finally started having some fives again in Southern California." Three of those quakes occurred in a swarm between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1 in an area that seismologists call the Brawley Seismic Zone near the Salton Sea - an area once considered a hotbed for earthquakes, but which has been relatively quiet for the past 20 years. "There was a time when the Imperial County was by far the seismically most active part of California, in the '70s, and it's possible that we could be headed back to that." The Los Angeles Basin and the fault system which runs along the front of the San Gabriel Mountains compares with the area that has been devastated by the magnitude-7.6 earthquake which struck along the western edge of the Himalayan mountains. Because a piece of California is tectonically having difficulty pushing around the bend of the San Andreas fault, "We end up with a very similar sort of structure (as in Pakistan) with a big fault and a basin with a lot of people sitting out in front of it ... Just like Islamabad, you put L.A. out right in front of that fault with a nice basin to amplify the shaking...at some point we're going to have a similar earthquake. Hopefully we're going to have better buildings." Experts weren't predicting that the big one would strike soon. "We're talking about this because of it happening elsewhere, not because we think it's more likely here." An earthquake along the Sierra Madre-Cucamonga fault system is expected about once every 5,000 to 8,000 years. "Whether or not it's an apocalypse depends a lot on the decisions we make between now and then." "Earthquakes and hurricanes are inevitable. Losses are not."
In the wake of natural disasters in the United States and abroad, California authorities are looking into creating a mobile command center that would serve as a communications hub for the southern part of the San Gabriel Valley in the event of a major earthquake. "If an earthquake strikes, it could damage the station or knock out communications. In that case, we could actually operate like a station out of the command center." The command center also could serve as a staging area for police standoffs or responses to transportation disasters.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI was 304 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa, heading northeast.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 374 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico , appears to be slowly heading south and west.

1 in the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 01S 01S was 631 nmi SE of Diego Garcia. The system has weakened rapidly in the last 12 hours.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical Depression 24 was 139 nmi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for all of the CAYMAN ISLANDS in the Caribbean. By today, the system could become Tropical Storm Wilma, the 21st named storm of the season, which would tie the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season. Conditions should allow the tropical cyclone to move northward toward western Cuba or the Yucatan Channel, or possibly even into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The emerging environmental pattern is usually favorable for rapid intensification to occur and for tropical cyclones to become major hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY REMNANTS -
CONNECTICUT -With the month only half over, this is already THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD for Connecticut. The previous record was 11.61 inches of rain in 1955. Hartford had 12.77 inches as of Friday. This is also the FOURTH-WETTEST MONTH EVER since the National Weather Service started keeping records for Hartford a century ago. Flood waters claimed one victim in Connecticut early Saturday and rescuers were looking for possibly a second after a woman slipped and fell into the dangerous rapids of an eastern Connecticut river. The Natchaug River in Chaplin was running at RECORD LEVELS after nine straight days of heavy rain in the state. "We probably got three months of rain in this past week." People were evacuated from low-lying areas of several towns.
NEW JERSEY - A state of emergency has been declared for New Jersey after eight days of rain caused ponds, lakes and rivers to overflow. The rain battering the northern part of the state for more than a week is now reaching its Atlantic shore. The rain in the past eight days itself may set a record for New Jersey rainfall for the entire month. The record of 9.13 inches of rain was set in October 1903. The current rainfall is expected to average about 9 inches.
MASSACHUSETTS - Teams from the Army Corps of Engineers and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency are monitoring dams across the state for possible breaches. The governor is concerned some of the dams may break.
RHODE ISLAND - heavy rainfall on Saturday caused widespread flooding statewide, forcing hundreds of people to be evacuated from their homes, breaching dams, closing roads, creating mudslides and prompting a warning of flooding rivers overnight. About 70 members of the Rhode Island National Guard are on standby, as well as two helicopter crews. Rain is falling for the ninth day, but forecasters say it’s expected to end later Saturday, only to be replaced by a cold front with high winds.
NEW HAMPSHIRE - A week after heavy flooding washed away homes and claimed several lives in New Hampshire, more rain wiped out numerous roads and flooded basements statewide on Saturday amid concerns of more floods. "This is an unusual amount of rain." In Alstead, which had suffered the most damage from last weekend's floods, one section of Route 123, which had the most homes destroyed, was closed again Saturday because a mudslide took out about 500 feet of road. More rain was expected Sunday, then expected to taper off on Monday.
MAINE - In Maine, the National Weather Service issued river flood warnings for the Presumpscot, Kennebec, Carabbasset and Swift rivers. Roads in some affected areas were deep in water.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1987 – nineteen people in southern Britain were killed as winds gusted up to 170 kph, the worst since records began.
In 2000 – tens of thousands of Italians sought shelter on high ground as torrential rains continued to fall in northern Italy and southern Switzerland. The deluge blocked transport links and hampered power supplies.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. NOTHING NEW ADDED THIS WEEK.

Saturday, October 15, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
6.0 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN KASHMIR

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.0 TAJIKISTAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.6 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5. 4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

The massive earthquake last Saturday killed 38,000 people in Pakistan, injured 62,000 and left 3.3 million homeless, according to the latest figures.
Heavy rain and clouds halted air operations supplying desperately needed aid to survivors of Pakistan's devastating earthquake yesterday after a cold night rocked by new tremors. Millions of people spent a seventh night out in the open.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon KIROGI continued to move away from the Philippine area of responsibility and is now on its way to the southern islands of Japan.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 16E was 358 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico, appears to be slowly heading west.

1 in the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 01S was 571 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia and 1425 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HURRICANE VINCE REMNANTS? -
Four people died in floods in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, after the country's severest drought in 50 years gave way to torrential rains on Thursday. Three hundred millimetres (11.8 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in the worst-hit areas around Girona and Barcelona, causing numerous floods, electricity failures and road closures, as well as the closure of a dozen schools. The mountains in the region of Madrid saw the first snow of the year, despite temperatures of 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) during the day 48 hours earlier. More rain was forecast Friday across northern Spain, with snow expected at high altitudes.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY REMNANTS -
Flood warnings covered much of the north-eastern United States after a week of unrelenting rain that has forced people to flee their water-filled homes and caused airlines to delay flights. "In the north-east, we've had the normal month's rainfall for October in the last six days." Nearly 30 cm of rain has fallen in New York City's Central Park since October 7, when the showers began across much of the north-east. Another five to eight cm was forecast to fall today and possibly early tomorrow. "We've had a stalled cold front that is bringing in moisture along the Atlantic. "
Overflowing lakes and streams forced hundreds of people from their homes, tens of thousands of sandbags were handed out in New Hampshire, and flood warnings covered parts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. In Connecticut, the ground was so soft because of the steady rain that trees toppled, blocking the railroad tracks in Naugatuck.
In New York, it hasn't rained this much in October since 1913, and weather forecasters say the city could end up passing another milestone, the record for the month set 102 years ago. The city's stretch of storminess began Oct. 7, and the bad weather is only now beginning to release its grip. That's very unusual for October, normally one of the driest months of the year. This month, 10.91 inches of rain had fallen at Central Park as of 4 p.m. yesterday. In October 1913, 12.97 inches fell on the city. The record for the month is 13.31 inches, set in 1903. An unusual weather pattern is keeping the rain in place. To the north is a massive ridge of high pressure that is preventing the storm from moving away.
In Connecticut, they have received between 4 and 12 inches of rain over the past week. Before tapering off tonight, at least 3 more inches is predicted. "We’re very lucky it wasn’t snow " as there would have been more than 6 feet of the white stuff. "We would be buried and we wouldn’t move for a week." "It’s unusual to see this much precipitation in a short time, but it’s not unusual to see a storm like this." The rain signaled the end of a brush fire danger that persisted all summer.
In Massachusetts, "rivers and streams and creeks are running at near-record levels and we probably will start to see some record flooding as the rain continues to carry on for another 24 to 30 hours." The source of all the rain is a stalled, spinning, low-pressure system from the mid-Atlantic that is trapped over the northeast, locked into place by two high pressure systems on either side of it. What makes the system unusual is that there is no frontal system coming from the west to knock the rainmaker out of place.
[Was the Eastern U.S. expected to be the next U.S. disaster area? Yes it was, on this site. On Oct. 4th this site ran an article I headlined "( Hinting of the next danger zone?)" "In preparation for severe weather conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has selected Mirror Image(R) Internet to handle anticipated traffic spikes in advance of and during major storms impacting the EASTERN REGION of the United States." The rain began 3 days later on October 7.
Keep watching for clues and patterns - we may not be getting the complete story from the news, but we might be able to pick up some hints of what's ahead.]

HURRICANE RELIEF -
Among the US government's expenditures for hurricane relief last month was $223,000 for thongs, three golf carts rented for $1500 a month and playing cards. Hordes of government workers armed with government credit cards descended upon the region, making a vast number of small purchases and often paying retail or even higher prices. The records provide no way of knowing whether the items bought were necessary or even used. High expenses included a portable shower unit with 24 shower heads, supported by water trucks and a six-member team to keep it open 24 hours a day, which ended up costing $8000 to $10,000 a day.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

In South Africa, hundreds of homes have been damaged during a freak storm at Mtwalume on KwaZulu-Natal's south coast. It is estimated that more than 1000 people have been affected in the Qokololo and Mthwalume areas. This is the second biggest storm to hit the province since January. It is estimated that 500 homesteads are affected to a varying degree.

In El Paso, Texas, by Thursday evening, showers had increased the year-to-date rainfall total to 12.58 inches, which is well above normal. The total rainfall recorded during the same period last year was 9.61 inches. "The rainfall moved us into the 14th (record high) of all time." The large amounts of rain are rare for this time year. More showers are expected early next week.

HEAT -
September was THE HOTTEST MONTH RECORDED ON THE PLANET EARTH SINCE 1880 when the first reliable instrument recordings were available. Earth's second-hottest month was September 2003. September 2005 was only the fourth-hottest month ever for the United States. The US state of Louisiana had its hottest September in 111 years. "Considering the record low amounts of sea ice this year leading up to the month of September, 2005 will almost certainly surpass 2002 as the lowest amount of ice cover in more than a century. "

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1979 - a 6.5 quake struck the Imperial Valley, Baja California.
In 1997 - a 7.1 quake struck near the coast of Central Chile, 8 killed, 300 injured, over 10,000 homes severely damaged or destroyed.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday, October 14, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.5 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 TAIWAN REGION
5.7 NEW IRELAND
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.0 KODIAK ISLAND, ALASKA
5.7 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

The World Health Organisation's regional office said it was harder to reach disaster affected areas in Pakistan than in December's Asian tsunami disaster area. "In the tsunami 1.5 million people were made homeless, but in this case we expect more than 2.5 million to be homeless. During the tsunami it was possible to have some ships, and in this case only helicopters can reach the disaster areas. But they cannot transport a large number of people and equipment. It is much, much more difficult." The hardship has been compounded by a series of aftershocks, including a powerful tremor overnight which triggered panic. Measles, malaria and other diseases are likely to erupt among hundreds of thousands of survivors living in crowded and dirty conditions unless supplies of clean water are urgently delivered. Water is especially critical. Stunned villagers poured out of the mountains into the devastated cities of Pakistani Kashmir in search of aid, forced to leave behind their dead and injured in remote settlements where rescuers have not yet set foot. "The winter is coming and fast. Within three weeks thousands of people will have been cut off."
Around 8000 schools were damaged or totally destroyed in Pakistan's northwestern province by the massive earthquake last weekend. "Hundreds of children still remain buried under the debris and hundreds of teachers are also feared to have died."
Geologists in Pakistan Thursday ruled out any immediate possibility of another major earthquake, saying that aftershocks are paving the way for the earth adjustment. "Wild tremors are positive signals as such tremors release energy from the depth of the earth. So, there is no possibility of a severely intensive earthquake now." The present wave of mild tremors could continue for three to four weeks. The number of tremors have diminished to 70 jolts, while there had been some 150 a couple of days ago.

The baby earthquakes slowly shifting Vancouver Island, Canada, closer to Japan are finally over - for now. "Only a few hours of weak sporadic episodic tremor and slip activity was recorded last week." None have been recorded since. The tremors started on the Olympic Peninsula Sept 3, and slowly migrated to a region northwest of Port Alberni. The tiny earthquakes, measured using Global Positioning Satellite data, moved the Island four millimetres west. An episodic tremor and slip event takes place roughly every 14 months, and lasts from six to fifteen days.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Indian Ocean -
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to good. Formation is possible within 200 nautical miles either side of a line from 8.3S 84.7E TO 13.6S 79.4E, approximately 685 nm east of Diego Garcia. (Diego Garcia is located in the middle of the Indian Ocean, normally out of cyclone range. A British territory, it is mostly populated by the US military. It was a major military staging post in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Although directly in the path of the Indonesia tidal wave in December, and with an average elevation of only 4 feet, the Diego Garcia military base reported "no damage". Favorable ocean topography minimized the tsunami’s impact on the atoll.) Available data does not yet justify issuance of a numbered tropical cyclone warning at this time. The system is moving SW at 11 knots.

In the Caribbean -
The stagnant pattern over the Caribbean is still affecting the Islands of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the offshore waters with bouts of very heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Tammy is responsible for the nearly 13 inches of rain expected for the week in New Jersey. "All this precipitation was caused when remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy joined the cold front last week, plus low pressure right off the coast." While Tammy, which struck Florida's Atlantic coast on Oct. 5, has dissipated, heavy rains won't stop pummeling the area until Sunday. "It's going to be wet all week long and then we have another storm moving in on Friday and Saturday. The heaviest rains this week are over Jersey City, New York and into Long Island. It's strange because it's typically our driest time of the year and we are still 8 inches below [normal rainfall], but now it's catching up. We still need more rain, but not all at once like this."
State troopers in New Jersey are getting high-water rescue vehicles and swift-water boats ready. The ground is so saturated that the water has no place to go. Six days straight of rain has saturated Oakland, N.J., which is near the Ramapo River. And they're beginning to assess the damage from flooding in New Hampshire, which a spokeswoman for the governor said is in the tens of millions of dollars. The raging floodwaters there actually swept away homes and cars. At least 10 people have died throughout the region.


THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
In the Virgin Islands, up to 6.5 inches of rain have fallen since Sunday, causing flooding and mudslides. An upper-level low-pressure system over the territory continues to draw moisture from Central America and South America. Rough seas have been kicked up by the system's SSW winds, causing flights to be cancelled. "This is so frustrating because this weather is so unusual." It may be several days before the region's northeasterly trade winds return to normal.

In the Dominican Republic, storm force winds and driving rain yesterday downed trees, billboards, powerlines and street signs, causing long traffic jams in this city’s major avenues and in other parts of Santo Domingo province. Strong rains throughout the day in the entire country yesterday caused the drowning of a five year old boy, the flooding of hundreds of houses and the cutoff of the access to towns in the South, East and the Cibao regions, from blocked highways and downed bridges. The rains which accompanied the winds caused the Yaque del Sur river to overflow its banks.

In Bangkok, Thailand, the annual flood season has arrived, and everyone seems to be worried about it. Bangkok is located in a low-lying area which is prone to flooding. As the city expanded, canals were filled up to make way for new buildings and infrastructure. Each district and community built their own flood protection facilities, thus disrupting the natural ebb and flow of the canals. The problem is that many outlying provinces have followed in Bangkok's footsteps by sealing themselves against floods. With no other way to go, water runoff from the North will pass through Bangkok at higher speed.

In Australia, south-east Queenslanders belted by a sudden storm are racing to repair windows and roofs, with further rain and hail predicted tonight and over the weekend. State Emergency Service volunteers worked frantically to secure roofs uprooted by a furious storm Wednesday that dumped hail stones the size of tennis balls and caused widespread damage.

The level of wetness in Minnesota is remarkable in two dimensions - first, for the amount of rainfall received so late in the season. Second, it's not unusual for a thunderstorm to impact a county or two, but it is unusual to be so widespread as the ones that struck the state from late September through early October. They have set back the ability to harvest fields. The outlook for November is tending for near normal or above normal temperatures at this point. The weather service isn't speculating on precipitation.

MUDSLIDE -
At least 500 tourists have been evacuated from the ancient Inca citadel of Machu Picchu but about 1500 remained stranded after a huge mudslide swept over the railroad tracks leading to Peru's popular tourist spot. The mudslide early Thursday covered about 500m of the track linking Machu Picchu to Cusco, and some of the track was under 2m of water. National Natural Resources Institute officials have voiced concern that the mudslides have been aggravated by melting mountain snowcaps due to global warming.

DISEASE -
The Asian bird-flu strain that can kill humans has reached Europe's south-eastern borders, the EU said yesterday as the bloc scrambled to prevent a feared all-out pandemic. In a sign of public alarm, Romanians were reported to be flocking to pharmacies for flu jabs. "In the absence of medicines against avian flu, people are massively buying vaccines against common flu." In Serbia people snapped up thousands of face masks, and in Germany pharmacists were reporting a surge in demand for Tamiflu and Relenza anti-virals. The head of the World Health Organisation warned that it was just a matter of time before a global bird-flu epidemic broke out, with disastrous results that would dwarf the impact from SARS.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1968 - a 7.4 quake struck Western Australia.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, October 13, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.5 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.5 PAKISTAN
5.2 SOUTH OF SUMBA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU

Some 400 aftershocks have rattled northern Pakistan since Saturday's quake, which was measured at 7.6 on the Richter scale. A strong 5.5 aftershock shook northern Pakistan yesterday, panicking jittery residents. Many buildings in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir that were not destroyed by Saturday's monster quake have been left in a perilous condition, leading to fears that aftershocks could bring teetering walls and roofs crashing down. Officials have expressed fears that the final death toll could be as high as 40,000.
At least six Indian soldiers on a rescue mission in earthquake-hit Kashmir were killed by a landslide triggered by rain. The rockslide wiped out part of a patrol walking along a track. The incident happened yesterday in Kupwara, one of the worst-hit areas in Indian Kashmir, where officials say more than 1200 people have died. Many villages in India's only mainly Muslim state can be reached only by foot or primitive dirt tracks that become almost impassible with rain even at the best of times. Autumn rains are now beginning to make access even more treacherous. As tens of thousands of earthquake survivors camp outside with no shelter and little food or water – and many with just the clothes they had on when they fled – weather officials are forecasting rain, snow and falling temperatures.
The Pakistani authorities estimate that four million people were directly affected by the earthquake including one million affected severely (total loss of shelter, severe injuries or death).

TROPICAL STORMS -

The Philippine weather bureau says typhoon Nando (international name Kirogi) has intensified and continues to threaten the provinces of northern Luzon. The weather bureau forecast the typhoon to be 1,000 km east northeast of northern Luzon by this morning and 970 km east northeast of northern Luzon by Friday morning.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
Another tornado has struck Birmingham, England this one was early Wednesday night, less than a mile from the scene of this summer's disaster. One home was evacuated after its roof was ripped off and a nearby road was closed, although no one was injured. Almost an inch of rain fell within an hour in Edgbaston and caused traffic chaos for many rush hour motorists. More heavy downpours were expected throughout the evening. "I looked out the window and it was dark black. For a couple of seconds I couldn't hear anything from the pressure. I went outside and there was a thick, black smoke going around. The trees were bending in and birds were getting caught up in it too. It was terrifying." The weather conditions are similar to those of the afternoon on July 28 when a tornado struck the Moseley and Kings Heath parts of the city. Entire roofs were ripped off homes, trees were uprooted and cars overturned in the street as the wind whipped down the streets.

Torrential rain Tuesday caused chaos in parts of northern and western Britain. Prolonged downpours hit hundreds of homes, and closed roads and the West Coast Main Line rail service between Glasgow and Carlisle. South-west Scotland, west Wales and Cumbria were the worst-hit areas with a string of flood warnings put in place. The Scottish Borders appeared to have suffered most heavily with up to a month's worth of rain falling in Eskdalemuir in just 24 hours. Towns and villages in north and west Wales also saw up to a month's rain in 24 hours.

Tamil Nadu, India was hit Wednesday by heavy rains that inundated low-lying areas and caused the death of at least half a dozen people who were trapped in the debris of houses that collapsed. The meteorological department said the northeast monsoon - the main rainy season in this southern state - had begun with an average rainfall of about 80 mm in most places across the state. The meteorological department said over 100mm of rain was recorded by 8 p.m. Wednesday in Chennai, Madurai, Coimbatore and Tirunelveli. Weather officials said the rains would continue for the next three days. The maximum temperature was 27 degrees Celsius and the minimum plummeted to 24 degrees, unusual for this time of the year. Fishermen on the east coast were warned not to venture out to sea until today, as the sea was turbulent throughout the day Wednesday. The heavy rainfall was due to a depression in the Bay of Bengal.

A sixth straight day of rain from a storm that has parked itself over New Jersey snarled traffic Wednesday, delayed airline flights and caused localized flooding that increased fears of more serious problems as the water continued to fall from the sky. New Jersey got between 1 and 4.5 inches of rain over the last 48 hours, with the heaviest amount falling in the northern part of the state. The National Weather Service predicted that as much as 2 inches more could fall in some areas of the state over the next two days. Much of the state remained under a flood watch, and streams and rivers in several areas were already overflowing by Wednesday evening. A coastal flood warning was in effect in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and some beach erosion also was possible. Gale warnings and small craft advisories were in place for the New Jersey coast.

A hailstorm battered Australia's Gold Coast's northern suburbs around 2pm (AEST) yesterday, dumping hail stones the size of cricket balls that smashed windows and dented cars and roofs. The hailstorm was blamed for a crash involving up to 11 cars. Gale-force winds brought down trees while minor flooding was also reported. Further thunderstorms were expected in the same region.

HEAT AND DUST STORM -
In the United Arab Emirates, a dust storm hit Al Ain, sending the mercury shooting to 41 degrees Celsius, up six degrees, and reducing visibility to 3.8 km. The dust storm, which caught the residents by surprise, began early in the morning and continued till late in the evening. And the weatherman has nothing encouraging to say about the weather in the next 72 hours, forecasting hot days and hazy conditions during the period. "A few low clouds threw a blanket over the city and the eastern region, making nights humid and foggy." The windspeed blowing from the eastern direction was 32 kmph. Humidity stood at 19 per cent.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1926 - a 7.0 quake struck the Andreanof Islands, Alaska.
In 1963 - an 8.5 quake struck the Kuril Islands, one of the 10 largest earthquakes in the world.
In 1985 - a 5.9 quake struck Tajik SSR, 29 killed, 80 injured, 8000 homeless.
In 1992 – The pyramids, the Sphinx and other monuments survived a 5.8 Cairo earthquake that killed at least 400 and injured more than 4000.
In 1993 - a 7.0 quake struck the Eastern New Guinea Region, Papua New Guinea, 60 killed.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
6.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA
5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA
5.0 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

The abnormal behavior of animals just before the devastating earthquake in Pakistan has once again established an old theory that animals can sense natural calamities well before they happen. Animals and birds behaved strangely Saturday morning just before the first tremor jolted the region. Dogs were barking and roaming in the street with great unease. Cats also acted restless and pet cats refused to eat or even drink milk the evening before. The birds in the sky abruptly increased greatly in the morning. The most interesting phenomenon was seen when boars disappeared a night earlier from Islamabad, when they normally gather in the city at night during the month of October.
Bad weather has been hampering aid efforts in Pakistan, three days after the South Asian earthquake. Torrential rains briefly grounded helicopters and slowed the progress of relief trucks on the roads. Some aid has begun to reach some towns near the epicentre of the disaster. But many thousands are spending a fourth night in the cold with little shelter. Pakistan's prime minister says 23,000 people have died in the country, correcting earlier reports of 33,000. (map of the epicenter and worst affected areas)
101 aftershocks were experienced Saturday. Another 122 followed on Sunday, 75 on Monday and 26 by 12 pm on Tuesday. The magnitude of these shocks varied from 4 to 6.2, however the frequency and magnitude of these jolts was gradually decreasing. These shocks will continue for another three to four weeks. Earthquakes and active faults in northern Pakistan and adjacent parts of India and Afghanistan are a direct result of the Indian subcontinent moving northwards at a rate of 40 mm/year (1.6 inches per year) as the Indian tectonic plate collides with the Eurasian and Russian plate. The worst hit areas have not experienced such a high intensity earthquake during the last 100 years and in the past have been considered as moderate and minor threat areas according to seismic zoning.

Two Lihir Mine workers in New Ireland province in Papua New Guinea are still missing, presumed dead, after a landslide struck early Sunday morning. The landslide occurred between the mine operating site and the mining township where the majority of the mine employees are housed. The landslide took whatever was in its path to the sea, including a mine employee who was on the site to monitor the situation. The landslide generated a strong sea wave which overturned a moored boat in Luise Habour with two other mine employees in it. One of the men managed to swim ashore while the other is still missing in the muddy water. The wave also caused damage to Kapit village. The landslide has cut power, water and the only road. The landslide was caused by increased seismic activity on the island.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm KIROGI was 638 nmi SSE of Kagoshima, Japan. The typhoon {called Nando there} has entered the Philippines area and is threatening to bring rains over the provinces in northern Luzon.

Householders in the Pilbara and Kimberley, in northern Western Australia, are being urged to prepare for the wet season, with up to two cyclones forecast to cross the coast. Forecasters have predicted five cyclones in total, with one possibly forming before Christmas. Authorities are also warning about the risk of tsunamis to the north-west. While tsunamis are extremely rare, the threat should not be ignored. "We can't give long-term predictions that a tsunami is going to come tomorrow - we might be able to give 30 minutes warning ... people need to recognise that if the water is behaving differently - if the tide goes out very quickly that that is indicative of a tsunami."

STAN -
The death toll from devastating mudslides in Guatemala topped 2000, as rescuers called off their search for hundreds of people buried for six days under solidifying mud. Panabaj was declared an "area of high (health) risk" by the Guatemalan Red Cross, meaning the town was off-limits to everybody, including its inhabitants, and that its surroundings were to be evacuated. Forty-two others were killed in Mexico, 72 in El Salvador and 11 in Nicaragua.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY REMNANTS -
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, reports the cold front that brought record-setting rainfall to the region Saturday has stalled off the coast and appears to be drifting back in their direction Monday and Tuesday. That will result in as much as two more inches possibly accumulating by tonight. A tropical system off Bermuda is also drifting westward. Models have it moving well to the south of them and then turning northeast. "But we know these things can change." And if these things do change and that system moves in and joins up with the cold front? "It would likely mean substantially more rain (than two inches) if that happens."
In Massachusetts, the National Weather Service forecast office reported that the skies are expected to open again today and Thursday. Because the ground is thoroughly saturated, any significant rainfall could cause renewed flooding.

In New Brunswick, Canada, large amounts of rain fell over the weekend. "I suspect we are breaking records." Fredericton received more than 74 mm of rain Saturday and Sunday. Moncton got more than 122 mm of precipitation while more than 101 mm of rain fell in Saint John. Grand Manan got the most rain in the province - more than 189 mm. A long, slow-moving system from the southeast is the reason for the soggy weather. Some of the moisture is from tropical storm Tammy. Large quantities of rain are not unusual at this time of the year, but such a large amount of rain in a short period of time is rare. There should be some relief from the rain by mid-week.

Torrential rain will batter Scotland, sparking fears of flooding, forecasters have said. Much of the country is expected to suffer downpours. East and south-west Scotland are most likely to be hit, with up to 100mm of rain predicted to fall. The heaviest rain was likely to arrive in south-western areas before moving across Scotland. The rain will then move north-eastwards later and may ease off. While Scotland looks likely to be worst hit, there is a 50% chance that Northern Ireland, Wales, and north and south-west England will also suffer.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -

A low pressure area, which had formed over South West Bay of Bengal in India on Sunday is persisting. Under its influence rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 48 hours. Heavy rains at a few places over South Coastal AP and isolated heavy rains over the North Coast are also likely during the same period. Strong winds will be from the North Easterly direction.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1992 - a 5.8 quake struck Egypt, 552 dead, about 10,000 injured. 8300 buildings destroyed.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 JAWA, INDONESIA

The massive quake has killed between 30,000 and 40,000 people in the mountains of northeast Pakistan, and injured another 60,000. Relief officials say the numbers could be double if not triple that. "It is a whole generation that has been lost in the worst affected areas." In many places people dug with their bare hands in an often futile attempt to reach friends and relatives trapped in the rubble. Anger started to build and sporadic looting broke out as help failed to arrive quickly. "We survived the earthquake but now we realise we will die of hunger and cold." Survivors were facing an array of problems - freezing overnight temperatures, rain, landslides, scarce food, little shelter, no communications networks and almost non-existent healthcare. There have been heavy showers, hailstorms, thunder. "People don't have tools or anything. It's such a disaster."
The quake was felt across a wide swath of South Asia, with damage spanning at least 250 miles, from Jalalabad in Afghanistan to Srinagar in northern Indian territory. Doctors said there was a serious risk of diseases such as diarrhea and pneumonia if drinking water and other relief supplies do not arrive quickly.
Reports from BBC correspondents in India and Pakistan.

A concerted global approach to planning and mitigation is urgently needed to counter cataclysms. Tragedies such as the Pakistan earthquake at the weekend and the Asian tsunami last December - which killed an estimated 220,000 people - serve as stark reminders of the fragility of the human condition and the overwhelming force of nature. Sadly, the dead become statistical and largely invisible. There is nothing much that can be done to prevent the convulsive tectonic forces that trigger earthquakes. There is, however, much that can be done to mitigate their impact.

VOLCANOES -
Two remote Aleutian Island, Alaska volcanoes grumbled to life on Friday, one spitting an ash cloud almost three miles high and the other shaking its uninhabited island with a growing swarm of little earthquakes. Both Cleveland and Tanaga volcanoes lurk beneath one of the world's major airline highways, connecting North America with Asia through dozens of flights per day. Volcanic ash from an eruption could damage or destroy jet engines. A third volcano, Spurr Volcano, continued a yearlong episode of unrest with wee quakes and hot gassing and more quakes this week, but appeared no closer to an eruption, according to the observatory.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm KIROGI was 638 nmi SSE of Kagoshima, Japan.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Vince has lost its hurricane force but will bring with it rain and winds as it hits Spain. Vince had turned into a hurricane on Sunday after forming near the mid-Atlantic Madeira islands, about 2,000 km (1,240 miles) southwest of Portugal. Madeira is an unusual location for the formation of tropical storms. The historical record shows no tropical cyclone ever before making landfall on the Iberian Peninsula. The center of Vince passed just to the south of the coast of Portugal before becoming THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EVER MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY REMNANTS -
Three more deaths are being blamed on heavy rain and flooding in the Northeastern U.S., raising the total count to 10. Forecasters are warning that the situation could get worse. While the floodwaters have receded in some areas, the National Weather Service said rain is expected for the next several days.
Rain-swollen rivers and streams disgorged floodwater yesterday into dozens of New England cities and towns, causing widespread damage and displacement in New Hampshire, where National Guard troops kept order and evacuees fled to shelters. Southwestern New Hampshire took the brunt of the flooding. In Keene, 4 to 6 feet of water submerged a third of the city. In Alstead, floodwaters flowed over a dam early in the day in a nearly 5-foot-high torrent that damaged more than a dozen bridges spanning Route 123, isolating the town. In Unity, rescue workers found two young people dead in a car under several feet of water, only the car's tires and undercarriage above the surface. Rescue workers yesterday were also investigating several other reports of missing people. ''This is the WORST DAMAGE THEY'VE SEEN FROM FLOODING IN 25 YEARS in New Hampshire." Rivers and streams in Western Massachusetts and eastern Vermont rose to ominous levels, prompting hundreds to seek precautionary shelter but in the end causing only minor flooding. By late afternoon, the rains - totalling 8 to 11 inches since Saturday - had stopped, allowing floodwaters to recede in New Hampshire. But forecasts held potential peril: The National Weather Service yesterday predicted at least two more storms in New England this week could produce enough rain to cause flooding anew in New Hampshire and threaten riverside towns in Western Massachusetts, eastern Vermont, and parts of Connecticut.
In Keene, New Hampshire, the Whetstone Brook has overflowed in the past during periods of heavy rain, but Saturday's storm was THE WORST SEEN IN THE LAST 35 YEARS. "I've never seen flooding like that which occurred Saturday night. It was totally out of the ordinary." The storm dumped up to 11 inches of rain in less than 24 hours across southern Vermont.
In Pennsylvania, sections of the state received as much as 10 inches of rain. The storm was unusual for this time of year. "October is usually one of the driest months and we're already over our usual amount."

SNOW -
A powerful storm dropped up to 20 inches of snow in parts of Colorado, knocked out power Monday to thousands of people, closed a lengthy stretch of a major highway and triggered rock slides in the foothills. One person died. In southwestern Colorado, rain associated with the storm system was believed to have triggered two rock slides in San Miguel County, including one that shut down a lane of Colorado 145. Steady rain also caused two rock slides in Boulder Canyon northwest of Denver, forcing the closure of one lane of Colorado 119 and damaging a car.

DISEASE -
A not-yet-released version of the Bush administration's plan for dealing with an influenza pandemic predicts that such an event could exact an enormous toll in life and wealth, according to recent newspaper reports. It describes a worst-case scenario in which the flu would kill more than 1.9 million Americans, put 8.5 million in hospitals, and cost more than $450 billion, with as many as half of all Americans getting sick. Those numbers are a much more somber view of the risks than in the previous draft plan. That document cited earlier estimates that pandemic flu could cause between 89,000 and 207,000 deaths in the United States. The document says a pandemic could overwhelm hospitals, touch off riots at vaccination clinics, and lead to power and food shortages.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1918 - a 7.5 quake struck Puerto Rico, the most destructive in their history. 116 dead, 6 meters (19.5 feet) high tsunami.
In 1968 - In Calcutta, India, a cyclone that struck the Bay of Bengal left 500,000 people homeless.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays.

Monday, October 9, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
4.9 PAKISTAN
4.9 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.5 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.4 PAKISTAN
5.6 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.3 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN

As the devastation caused by the giant earthquake unfolded, strong aftershocks continued to rock north India and Pakistan yesterday spreading panic among the survivors. As many as 34 aftershocks measuring more than 5.0 on the Richter scale had been recorded after Saturday's 7.4 intensity tremblor. There were scores of smaller jolts, about 140 in Pakistan. All of them were epicentred around Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The strongest aftershocks so far were felt at 1616 IST Saturday and 0243 IST Sunday, both of 6.0 intensity. In Jammu and Kashmir, residents rushed out of their houses several times as the ground shook.
The pattern of aftershocks shows that the epicentre is gradually shifting towards north as the epicentre was now 110 kms north of Islamabad.
More than 2.5 million people have been left homeless by the devastating earthquake that shook Pakistan and India.
Gujarat, India suffered its own, smaller quake in the early hours of Sunday and the Andaman islands are still rocking. And, experts believe a bigger earthquake than the one which devastated lives on Saturday could be lurking in the central Himalayas. In the past 100 years there have been nearly 40 quakes of magnitude 7-8 in the western Himalayas, which includes the Hindu Kush. And just a few less in the eastern Himalayas. Central Himalayas has had fewer, about 20. It has been relatively "silent", so a big one could be brewing.

TSUNAMI -
Food aid for tsunami victims is running out and the international community must keep the programme going to prevent "a disaster of immense proportions", Indonesia's tsunami reconstruction chief said on Friday. "There is a perception that the emergency conditions have passed because we're now in the reconstruction phase. This is wrong. The problems are so great, the humanitarian needs are so immense, that the emergency continues." Aceh will need food aid at least through 2006 to prevent malnutrition and related diseases. The WFP is feeding around a half-million people in Aceh, including nearly 100,000 still living in tattered tents. With the annual monsoon approaching, it is imperative to get people out of tents.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
A weakening trend is imminent, if it is not already underway, as Vince approaches the Iberian Peninsula.
Hurricane Vince formed Sunday in the far eastern Atlantic, making this hurricane season THE SECOND BUSIEST ON RECORD. The storm formed between the Azores and the Canary Islands in waters that are cooler than what is typically needed for a tropical storm. Water temperatures are about 73 to 75 degrees, below the 80 degrees usually needed for a tropical storm. Forecasters said this appears to be THE FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED IN RECORDED HISTORY IN THE ATLANTIC. ``Vince is a very odd one.'' After Vince, only one name is left for storms this season - Wilma. After that, storms are named after letters in the Greek alphabet. That has never happened before in more than 50 years of regularly naming storms. This season has been one of the deadliest and costliest in the U.S. in the last century.

Water flowing from the North Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic provides evidence that the Arctic Ocean is warming, according to U.S. and European researchers. The temperature of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean increased dramatically in 2004, warming in two abrupt stages in February and August. The anomalously warm water is currently flowing along the basin margins toward the interior of the Arctic Ocean. Enhanced westerly winds in the North Atlantic pushed warm water into the Norwegian Sea, and from there it flowed into the Arctic Ocean. The winds are due to changes in atmospheric conditions, but more evidence is needed to determine if the associated warming is the result of long-term change or part of a recurrent climate cycle.

STAN -
Dozens of foreign tourists fled devastated lakeside Mayan towns on foot and by helicopter Sunday as Guatemalan officials said they would abandon communities buried by landslides and declare them mass graveyards. Villagers who had swarmed over the vast mudslides with shovels and axes digging for hundreds of missing gave up the effort Sunday, five days after Hurricane Stan made landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast, bringing torrential rains before weakening to a tropical depression. More than 640 people died and hundreds more were missing across Central America and southern Mexico after a week of rains.
In El Salvador,the roads are becoming blocked with people and livestock as they try to escape their villages and move to higher, safer ground. Their situation is perilous as flooding and mudslides affect almost every part of the country.

TAMMY -
The Eastern Seaboard is in the throes of heavy rains that could put parts of New York into the record books. The Hudson Valley already has received more than eleven inches. Parts of New England are facing flooding, and a flood watch is in effect for many areas.
The rain has tapered off in Pennslyvania, but flooding has closed many roads in the area. There are many problems in the state following the torrential rains, including a variety of traffic accidents, some of them fatal. Some major rivers in northern New Jersey are under a flood warning after heavy rainfall that started Friday. The National Weather Service is reporting eight to ten inches of rain in northern New Jersey since Friday evening, with the chance of more rain through Wednesday.
The remains of Tropical Storm Tammy brought as much as 11 inches of rain to Maine this weekend. The water level in Lake Megunticook rose about two feet from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.
Hundreds of people in New Hampshire were forced to evacuate their homes Sunday after more than a day and a half of drenching rain washed out roads and flooded homes across the state. At least one person was killed when a car went off a washed-out bridge.
In Maryland, the fire chief of Darlington says they saw water Saturday where they'd never seen it before.
In Delaware,streams swelled near flood level and hundreds of homes lost power Saturday in the region's first drenching since spring and one that weather officials say BROKE A PREVIOUS RECORD. Three to 5 inches of rain fell statewide by Saturday night, with central Sussex County taking the heaviest soaking. Georgetown broke a record 1 inch of rainfall set in 1951 with 4.4 inches reported from 8 p.m. Friday to 8 p.m. Saturday. Wilmington, which received 3.2 inches of rain during the same period, also broke a record, set in 1996, when 1.4 inches fell.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
Torrential rains and typhoons have killed 1292 people in China so far this year and left 332 missing. Flooding and landslides caused by rains in mountainous areas were responsible for some 1085 deaths, while typhoons that struck China's southern and southeastern coasts were responsible for the rest. As of October 8, bad weather had caused direct economic losses of $24.96 billion, with more than 1.22 million buildings destroyed. About 210 million Chinese have been affected by the flooding that has inundated around 16 million hectares of croplands throughout the nation. Floods have always been part of life in China, but officials say this year has been more devastating than usual. Major rivers have been brought under greater control and early warning systems have been put in place, but flash floods and landslides caused by unprecedented rains have done serious damage.

FIRES -
Fire tore through a massive eucalypt plantation north of Brisbane, Australia as authorities battled to control bushfires ravaging Queensland's southeast corner. Many fires were caused by hot, dry and gusty winds in tinderbox conditions. The south-east remains on high fire danger alert tomorrow, with temperatures expected to reach the low 30s.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1961 – The whole population of the South Atlantic island Tristan da Cunha was evacuated to Britain after a volcano erupted.
In 1963 – A high dam collapsed near Belluno, Italy, and the resulting flood killed an estimated 1800 people.
In 1980 – An earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale hit Algeria, killing 12,590 people.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 9, 2005 -

Hurricane VINCE, the 20th named storm of the season has formed in an unusual location in the far eastern Atlantic, SE of the Azores and close to the Madeira Islands. The previously non-tropical low pressure system between the Azores and the Canary Islands aquired tropical characteristics and became a tropical storm, now a hurricane. It is mainly a hazard for marine interests in the far eastern Atlantic.

Largest quakes this morning -
5.6 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.8 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 EASTERN KASHMIR
5.5 EASTERN KASHMIR
5.3 NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.4 PAKISTAN
6.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.7 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
6.0 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.7 PAKISTAN
7.5 PAKISTAN
More than 18,000 people have been killed and 41,000 injured in the massive earthquake that rocked Pakistan and PoK as rescue workers today continued to work tirelessly to free those still trapped under debris and feed the homeless survivors. 17,000 fatalities were in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) alone where the quake was centred. Once the remote areas, where the quake caused large-scale damage, are accessed, the toll is expected to soar. Many roads were wiped out in the landslides triggered by the quake.
Over 3000 people were killed when the massive earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale shook parts of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, flattening houses and sweeping whole villages away. Thousands more were believed injured as the quake, ONE OF THE STRONGEST TO ROCK THE REGION IN THE LAST HUNDRED YEARS, triggered landslides and buried people in the rubble of ruined buildings. The epicentre struck close to the dividing line between Indian and Pakistani controlled zones of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. Several thousand people were feared dead in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir alone, which appeared to bear the brunt of the quake's terrible power. "This kind of devastation has never been seen in Pakistan's history before." "Village after village has been wiped out. The Neelum River has been blocked because whole villages have fallen into the water." At least 14 aftershocks, including one measuring more than 6.0 on the Richter scale, rattled Islamabad in the hours after the quake.
The BBC said the quake lasted six minutes, followed by dozens of aftershocks.
The first quake was followed by 18 aftershocks of magnitudes of between 4.6 and 6.3 over the next 10 hours. They were felt across the subcontinent, shaking buildings in the Afghan, Indian and Bangladeshi capitals. The U.S. Geological Survey described the quake as major, saying it took place at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan with western China was blocked in several places and Pakistan's remote Northern Areas had suffered extensive damage. But the worst-hit area appeared to be Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Worsening weather could hamper the relief effort. "Winter is drawing in ... winterized tents and blankets will be urgently needed." (photos)
The massive earthquake which rocked the South Asian subcontinent also jolted different parts of Bangladesh causing panic. However, there was no report of any casualties or damage from the 5.4 jolt.
In India, fears gripped people of many tsunami-hit villages of Nagapattinam coast in Tamil Nadu as the water level in many tanks and ponds rose rapidly and bubbles emanated from them. A panic-like situation prevailed in most parts of the district yesterday. 'The abnormality might have been caused due to the earthquake that hit the northern parts of the country', official sources said. The ripples and the increase in water level were noticed around 11 am in many water bodies, coinciding with the earthquake in north India. The abnormality continued for an hour. Fishermen were instructed not to venture into the sea.

VOLCANOES -

ALASKA -
The earthquake activity that began at Tanaga Volcano, roughly 105 km (63 miles) west of Adak, Alaska in the Andreanof Islands on October 1 has grown over the past 32 hours. Marked increases in the rate of earthquake occurrence took place late on October 5 and then again at roughly 5:00 AM yesterday. The located earthquakes range in magnitude from 0.5 to 1.9 and now range in depth from 6 to 12 km beneath the volcano's summit. These locations represent both an increase in magnitude and a change in depths and locations compared with events recorded at Tanaga between October 1 and 5. In response the level of concern colour code has been raised to YELLOW. While the current rate of earthquake activity represents a significant increase in rate, the size, depths and character of the events are not indicative of imminent eruptive activity. The last known eruption of Tanaga occurred in 1914.
A small eruption of Mt. Cleveland occurred sometime yesterday. Cleveland volcano forms the western half of Chuginadak Island, a remote and uninhabited island in the east central Aleutian Islands, Alaska. The colour code remains at orange.
The level of seismic activity at Mt. Spurr volcano remains above background with an increase in the rate of earthquakes this week, but no signs of imminent eruption. The colour code remains at yellow.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
Subtropical depression 22 was 183 nmi SSE of Hamilton, Bermuda. The tropical storm watch for Bermuda has been discontinued as the storm is dissipating. Regeneration appears unlikely.

STAN -
Mudslides and floods unleashed by Stan have killed at least 617 in Central America and Mexico. The death toll in Guatemala alone soared to 508 overnight, from 176 a day earlier, and as many as 800 Guatemalans are missing. Stan slammed ashore as a hurricane in the Mexican state of Veracruz early Tuesday but began pounding northern Central America with rain on October 1, with Guatemala taking the hardest blow. Mexico meanwhile launched a vaccination drive amid an outbreak of dengue fever in the storm zone. At least 28 Mexicans were killed by the storm and two million were affected.
An estimated 1,400 people were killed by a mudslide Wednesday in the Guatemalan highland village of Panabaj that had been triggered by torrential rains from Hurricane Stan. "There are no survivors here. It happened more than 48 hours ago. They are dead." The landslide engulfed the Maya Indian village in a fatal quagmire of mud, rock and trees, in places 12-metres thick.

TAMMY -
The Washington D.C. area's months-long drought ended Friday with hours of driving downpour that stalled traffic, knocked out power to thousands of homes and BROKE AT LEAST TWO RAINFALL RECORDS. Vast amounts of moisture from the remnants of tropical depression Tammy and an approaching cold front together were expected to continue to produce periods of heavy rain persisting well into Saturday. They set a record for Oct. 7 of 2.03 inches, well above the previous mark of 1.60 inches in 1965. The rainfall was by far the most in the region in weeks. Almost 20 times as much rain fell as in all of last month. Rainfall also set a record at Dulles International Airport, with 2.24 inches measured by late afternoon, compared with the previous high of 1.55 inches in 1965.
Heavy rainfall across Upstate South Carolina has closed roads and prompted water rescues in both Spartanburg and Cherokee counties. Up to eight inches of rain fell in the area Friday. When that much rains falls in a short period, flooding is inevitable. No deaths, injuries or serious property damage was reported. The heavy rainfall was indirectly caused by the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Tammy, which came inland in Georgia earlier this week.
Strong winds and heavy rainfall knocked down trees and power lines across Connecticut early Saturday. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch through this morning. Rain will be heavy at times as the remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy move in along a cold front. Forecasters said most areas will get between 2 and 4 inches of rain, with some places possibly picking up 6 inches.
Tropical Storm Tammy, which appeared in the Atlantic Ocean near the Florida coast with very little warning Wednesday, dumped more than five inches of rain in some parts of Georgetown County. More rain was expected as the remnants of Tammy got caught up in a cold front that moved through the state over the weekend. The rain was expected to taper off by today.

Great fast-loading maps for each year with all the hurricane paths marked. Detailed tracking charts and info for all Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1886.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
In Papua New Guinea, three men were rescued from a pile of mud and debris following a landslide that buried them in Mendi last week. Police say they were among eight other people asleep in two houses at the outskirts of the town when the landslide occurred. Eight people managed to get out, but the three were not so lucky and were trapped under the pile of mostly mud and other debris. Relatives searched for them in the early hours of the morning after accounting for the eight, and dug up the mud to rescue them. The landslide was likely caused by heavy rains in the area.

In India, thirteen people were killed and six injured when a passenger bus was buried under a mudslide in a freak accident in the scenic Kullu valley, 250 km from the state capital Shimla. "There were 19 persons on the bus. All 13 bodies have been extracted from the mud. Six other injured persons have been saved and admitted to a nearby hospital." Survivors said the bus was suddenly trapped near Mandikaran village by mud sliding down from a road construction site high up the hillside.

About 286,000 have been evacuated from flood-hit regions in Shaanxi Province in Northwest China along the banks of tributaries of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, the country's top two rivers. A total of 3.16 million people in the province have been affected by the floods along the Hanjiang River, tributary of the Yangtze River and Weihe River, tributary of the Yellow River. More than 45 counties in the province have been hit by the flood caused by continuous rainfall since late September. The flood in the Weihe River is said to be the most severe since 1981. Meanwhile, people in East China's Fujian Province have started reconstruction work following Typhoon Longwang, which claimed 65 lives and left 36 missing. Longwang, which landed in Fujian Sunday night and swept over the province for 10 hours, destroyed 5,500 houses, affected the normal lives of 3.71 million people, forced 186 highways in the province to close and 2,125 enterprises to stop production.
A pilotless plane flew through the eye of Typhoon Longwang last weekend to obtain first-hand information about the typhoon - the first time such an undertaking has been successfully carried out anywhere in the world It flew into the eye of the typhoon and hovered around the center for nearly an hour. At 3,000m, the plane recorded the speed of the center winds at 52mps, almost exactly the same as the speed recorded by the CWB at sea level. It also recorded a drastic change in temperature from 20C at 1,500m to 24C at about 500m. While the plane was leaving the radius of the typhoon, its equipment detected a maximum wind speed of 70mps at 3,000m - comparable to 252kph. However, just as the drone was about to get out of the storm's radius, its engine stalled and it plunged from 4,300m into the sea.

The weather extremes this past week in the U.S. - Tropical Storm Tammy, the 19th named storm of the hurricane season, in Florida, coastal Georgia and South Carolina. The season's first blizzard - possibly the earliest blizzard in memory there - raged across Montana, the Dakotas and Wyoming. The Central Coast of California had abnormally hot temperatures and high winds. Fire officials issued a red flag alert at mid-week for wildfire danger.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1865 - a 6.3 quake struck the Santa Cruz Mountains, California.
In 1995 – An earthquake shook Mexico City and the nation's southern regions, killing at least 54.
In 1997 – Hurricane Pauline struck Acapulco, Mexico, killing more than 200.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.

Saturday, October 8, 2005 -

SITE NOTE - Due to the overwhelming nature of these two catastrophes, the 7.6 Pakistan quake and the Hurricane Stan disaster in Central America will mainly be featured today. I'll add the other smaller stuff to Sunday's page.

Largest quakes this morning -
5.8 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 EASTERN KASHMIR
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.7 PAKISTAN
5.6 PAKISTAN
7.5 PAKISTAN
The death toll in Pakistan from the huge earthquake today could reach into the hundreds. "90 per cent" of the houses in three towns in Mansehra division have been razed to the ground.
The quake left at least 15 soldiers and eight civilians dead and put more than 200 people in hospital today in Indian Kashmir.
A village in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir was "wiped out" when the huge earthquake hit the region today and there were reports of widespread, severe damage.
"We have reports of dozens of people being killed in Kashmir, Mansehra and other parts of northern Pakistan." There are reports of whole villages being wiped out in northern areas and many people trapped in a collapsed apartment block in the capital Islamabad. The Margalla Towers residential building in a posh area of Islamabad collapsed in a pile of shattered concrete, causing an unknown number of casualties. A number of bloodstained people could be seen trapped beneath huge stone slabs at the scene while desperate cries for help could be heard. Hundreds of people are buried in their homes. Highways are closed.
Muslims, observing the fasting month of Ramadan, widely believe the day of resurrection will come on Friday. "Thanks to Allah today is Saturday. Had it been Friday [when the quake hit] many would have died of heart attacks" believing it to be the resurrection.
Two children were killed and nearly a dozen mud-brick houses were destroyed when the earthquake hit parts of Afghanistan. Thousands of citizens fled on to the streets in the Afghan capital Kabul and several cities in eastern and northeastern Afghanistan.
A powerful 7.6-magnitude earthquake rocked parts of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, injuring at least a dozen people. Part of a 19-story building collapsed in the Pakistani capital. Witnesses reported panicked people fleeing into the streets of the Pakistani capital Islamabad and the eastern city of Lahore. "It was so severe in Lahore that we rushed out of our homes and we are still outside." Witnesses in Islamabad said the ground shook for over 30 seconds, rocking buildings and causing widespread panic. A second less severe jolt lasted about five seconds. The quake struck around 9:25 am (0355 GMT) in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian Kashmir. Witnesses said many phone lines in Pakistan went down and it was not possible to get any government details of damage or casualties.

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 EL SALVADOR
4.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.9 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.4 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

As waves of aftershocks continued to threaten southern Peru after a powerful earthquake on Sept. 25 claimed five lives and injured 76 others in northern Peru, international aid agencies pledged to step up the relief program for the survivors. Two earthquakes (4.2 and 4.0) in quick succession on Saturday, Oct.1 brought further devastation to southern Peru. Following the quakes on Saturday, more than 170 aftershocks rocked southern Peru in the next 48 hours.

A moderate 5.5 earthquake rocked Central America on Friday, causing the collapse of a rain-damaged highway bridge in Guatemala and sending thousands of frightened Salvadoran residents into the streets. The quake forced officials to suspend their search for two coffee workers missing since Saturday when the Ilamatepec volcano erupted about 40 miles west of the capital, San Salvador. With supplies of food and water running low, governments in Central America and Mexico scrambled Friday to reach isolated areas devastated by a week of intense rains. Residents who spoke to reporters via cell phone said panic was starting to grow among survivors. [Earthquake, volcano eruption, non-stop rain, flooding, landslides - there's not much else that could possibly happen there - tsunami, asteroid strike?]

Flooding fears after an earthquake have workers at Lake Perris, California draining nearly half the lake. State officials are lowering the water level by 25 feet because the California Department of Water Resources says that if there were a major earthquake in the area the foundation of this two mile dam would lose stability causing the dam to slump and cause severe flooding.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical depression 20W was 103 nmi WNW of Da Nang, Vietnam. It will continue to track inland over central Vietnam and dissipate within 12 hours.

1 alert in the NE Pacific -
A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued - Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within 140 NM either side of a line from 19.9N 106.9W TO 23.0N 113.0W ( approximately 100 nautical miles WSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico) within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Rescuers are continuing their search for hundreds of people missing after mudslides caused by Tropical Storm Stan hit Central America and Mexico. The death toll in Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras and southern Mexico has reached 254 amid fears that it will rise further. Reports from worst-hit Guatemala say hundreds are still missing. Across the region, an unknown number of people remain trapped in what is left of their houses. Entire villages have been completely wiped out by landslides and flash floods. Rain is forecast to continue into the weekend.
Rescuers with emergency supplies of food and water can't reach more than 300,000 people in mountainous regions of Mexico's Chiapas state cut off by flooding and mudslides in the aftermath of Hurricane Stan, officials said Friday. States of emergency have been declared in at least six Mexican states because of the storm, which previously had devastated huge regions of Central America. Flooding caused by the storm has damaged or destroyed most of the bridges linking Chiapas state with Guatemala to the south. "It's devastating. Much of the city is gone. There's hardly any food left. People are desperate" in Tapachula, a city of 400,000 on the border with Guatemala. "We're running out of everything. This is the worst disaster we've had." Tens of thousands in seven southern Mexican states Friday were forced to flee their homes as heavy rains and flooding swept the region. Television reports showed dozens of cars and homes buried under mounds of mud. "The impact of this hurricane is overwhelming. It's affecting practically all of southern Mexico, and hundreds of thousands of families are in dire misery." The rains are not expected to cease until Tuesday. Adding danger and fear was a strong 5.8 earthquake that shook both Guatemala and El Salvador on Friday afternoon. It caused already damaged highways and bridges to collapse in Guatemala and sent thousands of residents in both Central American nations fleeing into the streets. The quake follows the eruption of the Lametepec volcano, which erupted Saturday 40 miles south of El Salvador's capital of San Salvador. Stan is the most recent storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, one of the deadliest in years. The season ends Nov. 30.
In Guatemala, along the country’s Pacific coast, the Nahualate River broke from its banks, creating a new outlet to the sea and killing at least 20 people from a small, seaside village. “We thought it was going to be like Mitch in 1998” which killed 10,000. “But now it’s worse.” Rough seas have prevented two large ships of aid from reaching affected areas.
Scores, possibly hundreds, of foreigners travellers were trapped at the Guatemalan resort of Panajachel, on volcanic Lake Atitlan whose turqoise waters turned black with mud. Rescue efforts were being hampered by mud, rocks and tree trunks blocking roads. Thick fog has grounded helicopters.

An intense rainstorm in Columbia triggered a landslide that buried part of a shantytown on the outskirts of the northwestern city of Medellin, killing at least 26 people, many of them children. The landslide, which brought mud, trees, garbage and rocks sweeping through the town of Bello, occurred late Thursday after five hours of heavy rains that loosened the earth in the boulder-covered mountain above the town. The heavy rains could continue during the weekend.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1871 – the Great Chicago Fire started, supposedly when a cow kicked over a lantern in a barn. Most of the city was razed. [New evidence seems to point to the fire being started by a meteor strike.]
In 1995 – A huge earthquake hit the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, killing at least 100.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays. NOTHING NEW HAS BEEN ADDED SINCE LAST TIME

Friday, October 7, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.5 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 ARABIAN SEA
5.0 TURKMENISTAN
5.2 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA

VOLCANO -
A mysterious volcano in the western Aleutian Islands began stirring this month, trembling with lots of tiny earthquakes six to 12 miles underground, according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory. The swarm beneath 5,925-foot Tanaga marks the first sign of unrest since the observatory wired the rugged cone with its own network of sensors two years ago. The volcano was last known to erupt in 1914. Most Aleutian Arc volcanoes produce batches of tiny quakes every day, but Tanaga had been remarkably quiet for reasons that remain unclear. “It had one reasonably measurable event every month or so, and now it’s gone to several per hour.” The nearest inhabited community is Adak, 63 miles to the east.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical Storm Tammy turned subdivisions into lagoons and soaked the port city of Brunswick, Georgia with more than 4 inches of rain before weakening to a tropical depression Thursday. Ankle-deep water seeped into at least two dozen homes, and Tammy's winds felled trees and power lines in southeast Georgia. The county had received 10 to 15 inches of rain over the past four days.
In South Carolina, Grand Strand residents and visitors faced heavy rain, isolating flooding and sporadic power outages as Tropical Storm Tammy's far reaching storm bands dragged across the area Thursday. The heavy rain caused problems all day for local counties. High surf is expected through this morning along local beaches. The rain is expected to continue until this evening.
Tropical Storm Tammy's waves pounded the sand on St. Augustine Beach, Florida. They stripped away freshly laid sand that's part of the city's beach re-nourishment project. Tammy turned one of the main thoroughfares in and out of downtown St. Augustine into a canal Wednesday. Heavy rain and high tide created a combo that made driving a tricky task.
Wind has been blowing hard for almost a week in Central Florida, but has calmed now that the storm has moved off to the north, but the storm has left behind one person dead (pulled in by the undertow as she walked along the beach) and some visible scars on the beaches. Rip currents are persisting because of the high, storm-generated waves, although a shift in the wind is reducing the threat. The forecast calling for 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next several days.

Rescue workers have pulled 40 bodies from the remains of the village of Solola smashed by a landslide in Guatemala. An estimated 200 people were buried. The discovery takes the number killed across Central America by Tropical Storm Stan to at least 210. Several days of heavy rain have finally begun to clear, but hillsides are still treacherous and rivers perilously high. Guatemala has recorded about 120 dead, with fatalities also reported in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras. In El Salvador, officials said nearly 54,000 people had been evacuated to 370 shelters throughout the country.
Rescue workers in Solola reported that two other villages had been buried by landslides, including Las Giraldas, 90 kilometers (55 miles) west of Guatemala City. There, more than a dozen people were working to dig out houses buried when a second hillside collapsed. Thursday intermittent sunshine and cloudy skies began to replace five days of punishing rain in Central America and Mexico. In Quetzaltenango, Guatemala's second-most important city 200 kilometers (125 miles) west of the capital, flood waters rose up 2 meters (6.5 feet) high, destroying hundreds of homes, businesses and public buildings. Guatemalan rescue workers also are trying to restore access to 300 roadways blocked by fallen trees, flooding and landslides.
In El Salvador, heavy downpours at the end of September, together with uninterrupted rain since October 1st have caused severe flooding in some parts of the capital Cabanas San Salvador and widespread landslides and mudslides making most roads unsafe.

HEAVY RAIN / FLOODING -
A man died and five others were injured as a result of a landslide in the Chokhatauri district of the Guria region in the western part of the country of Georgia on October 5. Reportedly, access to some villages has been cut off. Dozens of houses were flooded as a result of heavy rains in the western Georgian regions of Samegrelo, Guria and Adjara Autonomous Republic. Many bridges and roads have been washed away. As a result of a severe storm at sea, houses located on the shoreline of the Adjara Autonomous Republic were flooded leaving many people homeless.

5.5 inches of rain fell on Ironwood, Michigan since Monday morning and it has driven local streams to flood stage. Areas south and west fared worse. "I've heard people talk 14 inches" in Barron County, Wisconsin. "Somebody from Amery had 12. If Barron County would have had snow, it would have been over 100 inches. " The increase in river flows along Lake Superior has been spectacular. Three stream gauges across the region were showing flows of 100 cubic feet per second or less on Saturday but yesterday the Black River near Hedberg Road was running at nearly 2,000 cfs, the White River, west of Ashland was at 3,400 cfs and the Bad River, near Odanah was running at 7,000 cfs.

More than 9 inches of rain fell in some northwestern Wisconsin areas Tuesday and early Wednesday. The band of storms hit parts of Barron and Rusk counties the hardest. All Rusk County school districts called off classes Wednesday because of washed out rural roads, damaged bridges and other rain-related problems. The storm knocked out power to more than 10,000 people.

Some farm fields in southern Minnesota still had standing water leftover from 10 inches of heavy rains two weeks ago when another deluge with up to nine inches hit this week. The harvest had already been delayed, and the new rains came just as things were drying out. Now the wet fields have some concerned about the quality of this year's harvest. The latest precipitation was likely to prevent field activity until this weekend. "If we then had a week or two without rain, it would be ideal, but we've been getting these rain fall events about every fourth or fifth day, and so about the time you can get in and really start making some progress we're scrubbed out of the field again." The forecast calls for cooler temperatures, and colder weather tends to make fields dry slower, which means it'll take longer before farmers can take heavy machinery into the fields.

The Amazon River has hit its LOWEST LEVEL IN THE 36 YEARS SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT near its source in Peru. The level at Iquitos was reported to be 106.5m above sea level, below the previous, 1995 record of 106.6m. Low levels have been more frequent in the past 10 years. Low levels could bring economic havoc in areas of Peru that depend on the Amazon for shipping, by denying boats a navigable river as well as usable ports and harbours. "This year we have had adverse weather conditions that are rarely seen along the Amazon, which have resulted in less rainfall."

STRANGE ODORS -
D.C. officials still don't know what's causing the strange odors reported last week and again Wednesday night in parts of the city. Dozens of calls continue to come in at Washington Gas for reports of strange odors - mostly in Northeast Washington. One possibility is the stagnant water used at Smith's Recycling Center, which is located just across the border in Prince George's County. An air quality analyst says weather conditions could help the odor to spread.

Thursday, October 6, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 TURKMENISTAN
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
6.1 TONGA ISLANDS
5.8 TONGA ISLANDS
5.6 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

A strong 5.6 earthquake rocked Indonesia's tsunami-ravaged Aceh province on Wednesday, causing panicked residents to flee their homes and run to higher ground for fearing a tsunami. But there were no immediate reports of serious damage or threat of tsunami. Aceh, on the northern tip of Sumatra Island, has seen almost daily earthquakes since the massive temblor on Dec. 26.

The Peruvian Council of Ministers was expected to declare a state of emergency Tuesday following Saturday´s 4.2 earthquake in the Moquegua region 621 miles south of Lima, that left hundreds of people without water, food and accommodation. The roads have been cleared but bureaucratic procedures are hindering the provision of assistance and support to that Southern region. Although no deaths have been reported, 10 people were injured, and 471 houses were destroyed and another 379 partially damaged. People from Calacoa, Cuchumbaya and San Cristóbal are still spending nights out in the open, sleeping on very thin mattresses with worn-out blankets. They are less afraid of the Andean cold than they are of a new earthquake. An earthquake registering 7 shook North Peru a week earlier, leaving five dead and causing serious damage.

After the string of quakes and eruptions in the Afar region of Ethiopia, earthquakes are also expected to hit other Ethiopian towns on the Great Rift Valley - a geologic depression that runs from the Jordan River valley in south-west Asia to Mozambique in East Africa.

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the Pacific -
Tropical depression STAN was 129 nmi WNW of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Stan only briefly reached hurricane strength, but killed at least 103 people in Central America and Mexico, and relentless rains yesterday fuelled fears of further devastation. "The emergency is bigger than the rescue capacity, we have floods everywhere, bridges about to collapse, landslides and dozens of roads blocked by mudslides," a spokesman for the Salvadoran Red Cross said. Torrential rains brought by the storm since the weekend were blamed for 50 deaths in El Salvador, 34 in Guatemala, 11 in Nicaragua and eight in Mexico. Authorities warned the danger was far from over as heavy rain continued over much of the area.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical Storm Tammy, the 19th tropical storm, formed yesterday off the Brevard County coast in Florida. The highest winds and concentrated rain remained over the Atlantic east of the system's core. Tammy had sustained winds of 50 mph at 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday, and forecasters said the storm was moving north-northwest at 14 mph, hugging Florida's East Coast. It was expected to turn northwest last night and strike the coast in southern Georgia today. This morning the center of Tammy continues to move inland over south-central Georgia. However rainbands well to the north and east of the center are still coming onshore portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
This season is currently tied for the second-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851; 19 storms also formed in 1995 and 1887. The record for tropical storms and hurricanes in one year is 21, set in 1933.
A second system developing near the channel between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba could strengthen and threaten Florida near the end of the week. What could be Vince, the 20th storm, is brewing off the Yucatan and may bring tropical weather to Florida this weekend after making landfall on the state's west coast. The yet-unnamed system could bring severe weather as it clashes with a cold front hovering over the state. "This is a piece of energy left over from Stan."

The latest data released in Australia shows that cyclone Ingrid which hit Croker Island in March this year was a category 4 cyclone, not a category 5 as previously thought. Buildings that were built to code held up quite well. But it remains to be seen how these buildings would withstand the full force of a category 5 cyclone. "Category 5 cyclones are quite rare in our part of the world, so I guess it's a trade off between how much money you want to spend putting your buildings to a certain wind code compared with what you think the risk is of a particular place experiencing those winds within its design life time." The people of Nhulunbuy in the Northern Territory had a narrow escape from cyclone Ingrid which was at category 5 strength while it was near the Arnhem land coast. Nhulunbuy was saved because Ingrid went slightly further north. "In fact, the most destructive winds were probably only about 25 kilometres away from them as it went past, so it could have been a great disaster for the people of Nhulunbuy and very lucky for them that it didn't make a direct hit."

The genesis of two category-five hurricanes (Katrina and Rita) in a row over the Gulf of Mexico is an unprecedented and troubling occurrence. But for most tropical meteorologists the truly astonishing 'storm of the decade' took place in March 2004. Hurricane Catarina - so named because it made landfall in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina - was the first recorded south Atlantic hurricane in history. Was Catarina a 'threshold' event, signaling some fundamental and abrupt change of state in the climate system? All the major components of global climate - air, water, ice and vegetation - are nonlinear: at certain thresholds they switch from one state of organization to another, with catastrophic consequences for species too finely-tuned to the old norms. Until the early 1990s, however, it was generally believed that these major climate transitions took centuries if not millennia to accomplish. Now, thanks to the decoding of subtle signatures in ice cores and sea-bottom sediments, we know that global temperature and ocean circulation can change abruptly - in a decade or even less. Dramatic new evidence has emerged recently that we may be headed, if not back to the dread and almost inconceivable PETM (runaway warming of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, 55 million years ago, when extreme and rapid heating of the oceans led to massive extinctions) then at least toward a much harder landing than envisioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "The demon in me wants to say: party and make merry. No need now to worry about Kyoto, recycling your aluminum cans or using too much toilet paper, when we'll soon be debating how many hunter-gathers can survive in the scorching deserts of New England or the tropical forests of the Yukon. The good parent in me, however, screams: how is it possible that we can now contemplate with scientific seriousness whether our childrens' children will themselves have children?"

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
At least 4 inches of rain saturated most of the Twin Cities metro area in Minnesota, with some areas getting substantially more. Nearly 7 inches fell in Burnsville and 9.59 inches was recorded at the airport in Rush City, some 50 miles north of the Twin Cities in Chisago County. Roads closed. Cars stalled. Basements flooded. Rivers rose. And records were broken. The 4.61 inches that fell at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport broke the record for Oct. 4 and set a daily record for the month of October. The old record was 2.75 inches and the October average rainfall is only 2.11 inches. "We've had a couple of Octobers' worth already." Minnesota Department of Transportation spokesman called it "probably one of the worst flooding situations we've ever had" in his 18 years with the agency. "I've never seen it this bad." (photos)

St. Kitt's was hit by unusually bad weather - 4 and one half inches of rain fell between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, with heavy lightning and thunder. The unusual rainfall was blamed on 'an elongated mid to upper level trough' or weather system that passed through the Leeward Islands. Their usual total for the entire month of October is 6.03 inches. Last October they had 19.39 inches, over three times their usual amount.

SNOW -
About 155 miles of Interstate 94 from Mandan to the Montana border was closed to traffic Wednesday morning after a major winter storm brought heavy, wet snow and strong winds that snapped trees and power lines, canceled classes and left vehicles in the ditch. Heavy snow in the fall has been rare in southwestern North Dakota in recent years. Fall snowstorms have happened in Montana in recent years, but not as widespread or as far south as Wednesday's storm. Tree leaves were the main problem in power outages during Wednesday's storm. "Almost every outage is related to tree branches." "It's really treacherous - heavy, deep snow. Visibility is just really poor. It's so heavy that vehicles just can't push through it. I've got semis all over the place, stuck." "It's wet, heavy snow and it's going to pack, and it's going to turn to solid ice and we're not going to be able to keep up with it." The National Weather Service said it had a report of 12 1/2 inches of snow around Halliday and 10 inches at Fairfield. The state had 90 degree temperatures just a few days earlier. Bismarck reported 92 degrees on Oct. 1.

Recent mild Octobers have seduced elk hunters into cozy disregard for the Rocky Mountain weather demons. It might be helpful to recall the first rifle season of 1994 in southwestern Colorado. A freak storm smothered the Weminuche Wilderness under as much as 4 feet of snow. Some hunters were stranded in camps well into the following week. One man died of exposure. Rescuers brought out his brother, suffering from severe frostbite, six days after the brutal storm started. The only thing predictable about Colorado's autumn weather is its unpredictability. Mountain temperatures can drop 30 degrees in an hour. Unseen clouds just over the ridge could bear loads of wet snow. If it's warm and glorious, that's because the weather demons are napping.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1989 – Typhoon Angela killed at least 118 people on northern coast of Luzon, Philippines.
In 1999 – Overwhelmed by rising waters on the Niger River, officials opened the floodgates of two major dams, submerging 400 villages and leaving more than 300,000 homeless. Some 500 are believed drowned.

Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, October 5, 2005 -

It's insanity here in Minnesota again, where yet another Pacific hurricane has created torrential rain with massive lightning. Water vapor drawn here off of Hurricane Otis has droppped 5 inches on us so far, with another 3 expected. That is 3 months worth of rain delivered in 1 day. It will be raining for over 24 hours, many highway underpasses are completely flooded already. The heat has been unseasonably high - it was 80 degrees at midnight Monday night. Tonight it will drop over 40 degrees to 36 (which is closer to normal at night for this time of year here.) Temperatures will be back to the mid-70's by the end of the week. The dew point is 67 which is what is normal for June.

Largest quakes this morning -
6.1 TONGA ISLANDS
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.1 NEW IRELAND
5.4 MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA

VOLCANO -
The 11th earthquake to rumble across the region since last month, measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale, jolted northern Ethiopia on Tuesday, triggering another eruption of the previously dormant Mount Arteale, which has been spewing lava for several days. The earthquakes have damaged roads in the region's Teru and Dubti districts. The volcano has been spewing molten lava since a series of earthquakes began rattling the region on September 18. Large portions of Mount Arteale's slopes and its surrounding areas are covered in a thick blanket of ash and plumes of smoke and "the quake and volcano eruption is expanding or stretching further in all directions". The tremors and eruptions are being caused by the expansion of tectonic plates under the Great Rift Valley.
(About 500,000 people have been displaced in Afar and are migrating to neighboring regions as an imminent drought is just around the corner due to the failure of rains for the past two years.)

TSUNAMI -
Some 250,000 people died in disasters in 2004, 225,000 in the Indonesian tsunami. Recent yearly death tolls have averaged 67,000. Disasters including floods, famine and hurricanes affected about 146 million people worldwide in 2004. The majority of those, about 110 million, were affected by severe flooding in India, Bangladesh and China. Tens of thousands who died in the Asian tsunami would have survived if they were given quicker warnings.

TROPICAL STORMS -
1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical depression STAN was 129 nmi WNW of Salina Cruz, Mexico. The remnant low pressure system is expected to move very slowly over the mountains of SE Mexico this morning. Isolated maximum amounts of rain of 20 inches is possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
There is a possibility that the remaining vorticity in the system could lead to regeneration just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Some of the forecast models suggest this, as well as the possibility that some of the energy from this system will move northeastward back toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Stan has smacked into Mexico's Gulf coast, forcing evacuations and shutting down oil ports after killing at least 65 people in Central America. The storm came ashore 136km southeast of the city of Veracruz as a Category One hurricane with winds of nearly 128km/h, although it then weakened to a tropical storm. Rains from Stan reached Mexico City, more than 400km away. Coffee is grown in Veracruz's hilly inland region but there was no immediate word on possible crop damage.
In El Salvador - already shaken by the eruption of its biggest volcano - the government declared a state of emergency and is evacuating thousands due to landslide threats. "Sixty percent of the country is in danger of landslides. The risk caused by this accumulation of water is worrying." Some 300 communities have been flooded. More than 8,500 people have been forced to flee their homes, and were being accommodated in 122 shelters. Emergency personnel were trying to reach stricken areas, but were hampered as landslides and swollen rivers cut off major routes. A state of emergency was declared in parts of Guatemala, after dozens of communities were also stranded by floods.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
In Canada, still reeling from flooding that ravaged the Newfoundland and Labrador town of Stephenville last week, more residents have been ordered to evacuate. Health inspections conducted as the town cleans up this week have deemed many buildings unfit to live in and warned that the order could still be expanded. More than 200 homes were swamped by the floodwater, forcing some 200 of the town's 8,000 residents to flee their homes. Some major roads in the town were washed out, including the Trans Canada Highway.

Life disrupted in Bangladesh from heavy rains and a tornado.

SNOW -
North Dakotans were bracing for the first snow of the season, a few days after high temperatures in some areas surpassed 90 degrees. "It's ridiculous how fast the weather changes." Up to 6 inches of snow was possible in the southwest, and up to 8 inches could fall in the northeast. The snowfall would not be unusual. "We can pretty well expect our first snow somewhere in early to mid-October."

DROUGHT -
Large parts of the Amazon rainforest are at their DRIEST IN LIVING MEMORY, a direct consequence, scientists say, of the severe hurricane season off the US Gulf coast. Rainfall has been significantly below average this year along the Rio Solimoes and the Rio Madeira, two of the major Brazilian tributaries that flow into the Amazon, causing water levels to drop to RECORD LOWS. Rivers and lakes are drying up, revealing huge sandbanks and making navigation difficult for boats. "There is no rain here because the air is descending, which prevents the formation of clouds. The air is descending here because the air is rising very intensely in the north Atlantic, creating storms and hurricanes." The north Atlantic was slightly warmer than usual, which shifted the tropical weather system further north. A secondary factor was that cold fronts that usually came from the south of Brazil at this time of year had not been arriving. "These cold fronts have been heading straight into the ocean, instead of heading north towards the Amazon." Even though the river levels in the south-western Brazilian Amazon are always low at this time of year, the scale is much worse than usual and has HIT AREAS NEVER PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED. In towns such as Humaita the lush landscape has drastically changed. "A beach has been born in the middle of our town. Before this year I'd never seen the river less than 10 metres deep - now its only 2 metres. This is the BIGGEST DROUGHT IN OUR HISTORY."At Tabatinga on the border with Colombia, rainfall is almost 70% down from last year. The dry spell was expected to continue into October - hitting the south of Amazonas especially hard.

Each year of the 1990s, an average 211 million people were hit by natural catastrophes - seven times the number of those killed or adversely affected by conflict, according to the International Red Cross. Extreme weather has intensified its role in current crises: in southern Africa, drought is the prime cause of hunger, which is now threatening an estimated 14.4 million people. At the same time, another serious drought is looming over the Horn of Africa where the figure of those at risk in Ethiopia alone has unexpectedly jumped to between 10-14 million - confronting the international community with a new and enormous challenge. In Mauritania, drought is already causing serious hardship and is spreading to five neighboring countries, affecting up to 1.5 million people. In Central America, over 1.5 million people have seen their food supplies wither because of drought. Across the ocean, Asia is battling with floods. In Afghanistan, four years of drought and conflict are still wreaking havoc on the lives of almost 10 million people. "The combined needs of roughly 50 million people cannot be shrugged off. Nor can the needs of 300 million hungry children, who either go to school and don't get a meal or don't go to school at all."

METEOR -
A bright green object that blazed from north to south over the Pennsylvania region in the predawn hours on the 3rd likely was a meteor and not the re-entry of space debris. It appeared around 5:40 a.m. and was seen from Indiana to Virginia, but would have been visible for less than 10 seconds before it burned up in the atmosphere.

SPOOF - HAVE A LAUGH:
In a follow-up to comments he made earlier in the week comparing the ravages of Hurricane Katrina to the 9/11 terror attacks, President Bush told a national TV audience last night that the nation is now engaged in a long-term struggle against international rain. Speaking from the Oval Office, Bush declared that the first duty of a government is to protect its citizens and that he would not "sit idly by while clouds gather." "The war on weather will test our national resolve and the capacities of our clothes dryers," Bush said. "In the words of Joni Mitchell, 'I have looked at clouds from both sides now. They rain and snow on everyone, and they must be destroyed.'"

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1948 - a 7.3 quake struck Turkmenistan, 110,000 dead. One of the world's dealiest quakes.
In 1985 - a 6.8 quakes struck the Northwest Territories, Canada.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays
Disease - updated Mondays
Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.
Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.
Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.
Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Tuesday, October 4, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.4 MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 NEAR NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 NEW IRELAND
5.0 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Fear of further earth tremors in Moquegua caused dozens of people from that southern Peruvian region to sleep in public squares rather than in their precarious houses. Six perceptible tremors, two measuring 4.2 and 4 grades on the Richter scale, and nearly 20 aftershocks took place in that zone Sunday. Landslides provoked by the seismic movements have prevented communication with settlements and impeded the region's authorities from sending needed blankets and food to those people. Almost 300 houses were destroyed and 10 people injured; none seriously. Thus far, no dead have been reported. A week ago, a seven-grade earthquake shook northeast Peru, and on Thursday, another lower intensity tremor touched Lima's eastern mountain range.

A university seismologist began installing seismic measuring devices Sunday in the Clear Creek area of Idaho, where residents have reported feeling earthquakes for more than a week. The seismograph installed Sunday - the first in a series - will help identify the fault at issue in the quakes. The network may help him predict what is going to happen if the earthquake cluster, or swarm, continues in the area near Cascade, about 80 miles north of Boise. The strongest, which occurred Thursday, had an estimated magnitude of 4.0 - the biggest temblor to hit the area in at least 15 years. A quake with a magnitude of 3.9 shook the area late Saturday. Most people do not notice quakes with a magnitude of less than 4.7 so the ongoing swarm might be closer to the surface than most. Cascade residents are starting to feel the quakes more now than when the swarm began. Previous clusters have lasted months. This one has already produced thousands of tiny quakes.

VOLCANO -
About 50,000 nomads in Ethiopia's Afar region were displaced as a result of last week's eruption of a volcano. Mount Arteale, about 1 000km northeast of Addis Ababa, erupted on September 26 after an earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale. Large areas of land they used for grazing are now covered by lava. There were no human casualties, but hundreds of head of livestock were killed - more than 450 goats, 75 camels and 10 donkeys. Affected people will be moved to Fenti Zone, about 400km south of the volcano-hit zone.

TROPICAL STORMS -

At least 60 students at a military training school have been swept away during a typhoon in south-east China. The students went missing when two buildings were struck by a landslide in the coastal province of Fujian. Elsewhere in Fujian province, another landslide killed three people. Typhoon Longwang made landfall near Jinjiang on Sunday, with winds of up to 120km/h (73 mph). The typhoon season has brought three powerful storms to the region in recent weeks, killing more than 150 people.

1 in the Indian Ocean -
Cyclone 03B was 20 nmi S of Calcutta, India.
Landslides in West Sikkim, India have washed away a 40m long steel bridge and another made of cement. The landslides occured due to incessant rains in the district in the last few days. The river had swelled over the bridge by about 100 feet. Some houses were also partially damaged while an 8-year-old miraculously escaped with minor injuries after being buried under the debris of his house.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression OTIS was 181 nmi WNW of La Paz, Mexico.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm STAN was 71 nmi NNE of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.
Tropical storm Stan's intensity has increased and is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours - Stan is expected to reach the coast as a category one or two hurricane in 36 hours, more quickly than previously expected - A hurricane warning has been issued in Mexico - Stan is expected to produce 5-10 inches of rainfall over portions of SE Mexico.
Many unexpected changes have occurred with Stan overnight. Stan has been moving southwestward much faster than any of the models were forecasting and there does not now appear to be any obvious reason why this motion will not continue. Unless Stan slows down or changes direction very soon it will cross the coast within the hurricane warning area later this morning (instead of 36 hours as had been forecast). The center wil be onshore in less than 12 hours (from 5am EDT). Hurricane Stan continues to strengthen.

Three days of torrential rains from Tropical storm Stan have killed at least 29 people in Central America as mudslides buried homes and rivers burst their banks. Twenty-three people died in El Salvador when heavy rains triggered mudslides in neighbourhoods south and west of the capital, and the government has declared a red alert. In neighbouring Guatemala two people drowned inside their riverside homes when the river broke its banks, and another two were killed in a mudslide. Mudslides also killed two people in Honduras. Across the region, hillsides fell away under the intense rain and swallowed or damaged homes. Swollen rivers overflowed and highways were flooded.

It wasn't that long ago that a hurricane was a rare event. In the 1970s, '80s and early '90s, a hurricane would come along only four or five times a year, often in the safe, far reaches of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Since 1995, however, hurricanes have become the rule, not the exception. The National Hurricane Center reports that the past 10 years have seen more hurricanes than any other similar time frame in recorded history. One lesson from the '04 Hurricane season was that you don't have to be on the coastline to be affected by hurricane winds. As Orlando residents discovered during Hurricane Charley, monster storms can affect even the areas that many people head to when evacuated from the coast.

( Hinting of the next danger zone?)
In preparation for severe weather conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has selected Mirror Image(R) Internet to handle anticipated traffic spikes in advance of and during major storms impacting the EASTERN REGION of the United States. According to Robert Bunge, weather service Internet dissemination officer for NOAA, "It is essential that important weather-related information that can save life and property during a major weather event, such as a hurricane or winter storm, be available regardless of the conditions outside.

WEATHER CONTROL -
Despite a lack of firm evidence that the efforts work, states such as California, Utah, Colorado, and Nevada have recently spent money on cloud seeding to increase precipitation or reduce hail or fog. Efforts to reduce the size of hailstones are progressing too. Adding silver iodide smoke into storms appears to limit the growth of hailstones. Hurricanes rely on warm water for fuel. Experts disavow schemes from ocean plowing (to cool the water and remove the energy source) to dragging icebergs into the path of a storm. Smaller-scale weather systems might be more open to change. One idea floated a few years back was to beam microwave energy from a satellite to disrupt the convection that drives a tornado. But many scientists think research dollars are better spent on improved storm preparation and reaction plans.

DISEASE -
The Food and Drug Administration is warning people not to eat certain Dole pre-packaged salads that have been connected to an outbreak of E. coli infections in Minnesota. The illnesses have all been associated with Dole salads bought at Rainbow Foods grocery store outlets in the state. But salads carrying the same production codes have been distributed nationwide. "Given the severity of this illness, FDA believes an urgent warning to consumers is needed."
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Recalls, Withdrawals and Alerts in the Last 60 Days. (You can sign up for their email recalls notification.)

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1983 - a 7.4 quake struck near the coast of Northern Chile, 3 killed.
In 1994 – an 8.2 undersea earhquake killed at least 16 people in Russia's Kuril Islands, injured 340.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays

Monday, October 3, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 NEW BRITAIN
5.3 NEW BRITAIN
5.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

VOLCANO -
At least two people died and seven people were injured by red hot rocks spewed into the air by the eruption of the Santa Ana or Ilamatepec volcano in EL Salvador on Saturday. The volcano was quiet Saturday night. Officials, nevertheless, kept a "red alert" in place. The eruption on Saturday triggered a landslide of boiling mud and water from a crater lake that rushed down onto the hamlet of Palo Campana, located just two kilometres from the crater, while rock and ash rained down on villages in the coffee growing area. Some of the debris was large as an automobile. The ground shook as plumes of smoke and ash rose from the volcano, and burning rocks were hurled into the air. Scientists said Ilamatepec had spat rocks as far as 1.5km (one mile) from its crater. There have been reports of villagers fleeing from a flood of boiling mud and water. The volcano had been dormant since 1904.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 204 nmi W of Taipei, Taiwan and 240 nmi NE of Hong Kong.
Typhoon Longwang has already caused widespread damage in Taiwan and killed one person, and has now swept into southern China. The Chinese authorities evacuated more than 300,000 people in the coastal provinces of Fujian and Guangdong. Forty-six people were injured, most of them suffering cuts from broken glass. Seven houses were destroyed, while strong gusts of wind lifted roofs off four homes and a university dormitory.
As super-typhoon Longwang approached Taiwan, a moderate earthquake shook the island, prompting some residents to flee their homes. Nature's curious double-whammy left 36 people injured from the storm, but no one was reported hurt by the quake, a magnitude 5.4 - capable of moderate damage. Up to 16 inches of rain had fallen along the northern and central portions of the eastern coast, especially in mountainous areas.

Cyclone 03B was 122 nmi SSW of Calcutta, India and 266 nmi WSW of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

( A leaky dike is letting in the sea as Typhoon Damrey continues to haunt Vietnam. With damaged dikes yet to be fully plugged in parts of Nam Dinh province in Vietnam’s north, the sea continues to lash houses while many homes damaged by Typhoon Damrey last month remain unrepaired. Typhoon Damrey hit Vietnam September 27, causing many deaths and massive damage to property in several northern provinces.)

1 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical storm OTIS was 128 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Dissipation in 48 hours is likely, before reaching the central Baja California coast. It will likely bring rains to parts of western Texas and southern Arizona by early this week.

2 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Stan was 82 nmi NE of Campeche, Mexico. Stan is expected to strengthen again as it moves over the warm waters of the SW Gulf of Mexico today. The center is likely to be near or across the coast of Mexico in 2-3 days.

Tropical depression 19 was 1381 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores. Likely to dissipate shortly and never threaten any landfall.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
A British teenager has been found dead after she was swept away trying to cross a stream as heavy rain and flash floods hit the Turkish resort Bodrum. Heavy rain in the Aegean resort has led to overflowing streams, which have flooded several buildings.

Scattered rain and strong localized thunderstorms swept across portions of the Mid-Willamette Valley in Oregon on Saturday, causing several inches of standing water to pool. Pea-sized hail was reported in sections of South Salem. And a funnel cloud was sighted in northeast Salem. Weather equipment indicated that isolated storm cells could have dumped up to a half-inch of rain on parts of the city.

A storm dumped up to a foot of rain over parts of northeast Kansas on Sunday, sparking flash flooding that left people stranded in homes and cars. "Who plans for this kind of rain?"

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1915 - a 7.1 quake struck Pleasant Valley, Nevada, one of the 15th largest in U.S. history.
In 1974 - a 7.6 quake struck Peru, 78 died.
In 1997 – Earthquakes in central Italy injured 20 people and caused further damage to the Basilica of St Francis of Assissi, damaged by earthquakes a week earlier.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday, October 2, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.3 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION

VOLCANO -
The Salvadoran interior ministry declared a red alert in the area of the Ilamatepec volcano which erupted on Saturday, hurling glowing lava and ash from its main crater. "It has begun to expel magma on the side of the town of San Blas, while the ash is being carried by a south-southwesterly wind." Military alarms were sounded for an immediate evacuation of the area. "The volcano has entered an eruptive phase that consists of ashes and gases." There were no official reports of injuries, but an unknown number of people were treated for smoke inhalation and other breathing ailments.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 124 nmi SW of Taipei, Taiwan and 313 nmi ENE of Hong Kong.

Cyclone 03B was 229 nmi SW of Calcutta, India and 372 nmi WSW of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

1 in the NE Pacific -
Mexico is getting hit from both the Pacific and the Atlantic.
Hurricane OTIS was 116 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Rainbands are affecting Baja California. The center of Otis is currently forecast to remain west of southern Baja during the next 24 hours. Otis is expected to dissipate in about four days as it reaches mainland NW Mexico. It will likely bring rains to parts of western Texas and southern Arizona by early next week. Otis was the 15th Pacific storm of the season. Unlike powerful Atlantic storms such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Pacific hurricanes tend to do less damage because they make landfall less-frequently.
About 1,000 people fled their homes in low-lying areas and stiff rains sparked flooding along main streets of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico Saturday, as slow-moving Hurricane Otis picked up strength in the Pacific.

(The Hawaiian islands dodged the worst of Tropical Depression Kenneth Friday, but flooding was still possible Saturday, with heavy showers expected on Oahu. The heaviest rains fell in Manoa, which got more than 5 inches in the 24 hours.)

2 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Stan was 102 nmi SSW of Cancun, Mexico. Moving toward the WNW. This motion should bring the center of the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early this morning. After that it will likely move westward through the Gulf to the Mexican coast. Stan is expected to weaken while spending almost the next 24 hours over land. Conditions are still expected to be conducive for restrengthening over the SW Gulf of Mexico and the official forecast anticipates a hurricane by 72 hours.

Tropical depression 19 was 1424 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores. Likely to dissipate within 120 hours and never threaten any landfall.

The busiest hurricane season in at least 154 years isn't over yet, despite the post-Rita lull over the Atlantic basin. Instead, as October dawns, Florida is about to undergo its own version of the Northern change of seasons - not leaves changing colors, but a change in direction for the hurricanes threatening the state. August and September hurricanes tend to be hard-blowing beasts that spin westward out of the Atlantic. October storms are typically weaker and wetter as they slosh northward from the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf of Mexico. October hurricanes have been some of the most memorable in recent decades. They include Irene, which swamped Palm Beach County in 1999, and Opal, which tore up the Panhandle in 1995. Florida also has experienced its share of November storms - including Mitch, which thrashed Palm Beach County as a tropical storm in 1998 - and even a Dec. 1 hurricane in 1925. The October hurricane transition occurs partly because days grow shorter and the temperatures drop in Africa as the year wanes. That depresses the creation of the atmospheric disturbances that fuel the summer's westward-flowing tropical waves.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
In Thailand, more than 1,000 households along both banks of the Korn and Lao rivers in Muang district and Mae Lao sub-district were in distress after waters rose to one metre as a result of heavy rains the previous night. Local officials were worried the situation could get worse with overflow from the Kok River and run-off from Chiang Mai’s Fang district. At least three provinces in other regions were also reported suffering from the seasonal monsoon. Gales in Amnat Charoen’s Chanuman district battered more than 50 houses in the area, causing one death and two serious cases of injury. In Kanchanaburi, constant rainfall since early morning inundated Muang district under a metre of water and affected 100 families. In Bangkok, strong winds swept over some areas in Nong Khaem district, immediately damaging 18 houses - 10 seriously. A local said it was the STRONGEST STORM HE HAD EVER SEEN IN 60 YEARS, severe enough to make a laundry machine fly up into the air.

In Montana, heavy rain triggered mudslides and falling boulders Friday, closing a portion of Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park for at least several days. Culverts were clogged with mud and rock in several areas of the road's alpine stretch near Logan Pass, causing some minor flooding. A boulder the size of a small car also smashed into the road west of the pass, and mudslides were reported in several areas. The slides were likely caused by nearly 3 inches of rain that had fallen in the park's mountains since early Thursday.

In Washington, heavy rains caused minor flooding and closures of some roads near Carnation and the Snoqualmie Valley area Friday. The downpours also caused flooding and mudslides at Mount Rainier National Park that have closed roads for the weekend. The first flood warning of the fall and winter storm season was issued in the Puget Sound region. 5 inches of rainfall Thursday caused mudslides and flooding of the Nisqually River. "I've never seen so much water in the Nisqually River. There were trees floating by, the noise was deafening and the air smelled like pine pitch and mud."

ODD GAS, ROT, OR SUPHUR ODORS -
Southland, CALIFORNIA residents from the coast to the Valley reported a rotting garbage-like odor on 9/20. "It was that sort of weird, clinging cloud-of-garbage-like smell that has come to characterize New York in August." Workplaces and weblogs were buzzing, with descriptions comparing the smell to old socks, rotting cabbage soup, kimchi, moldy wet wallboard and the "dampness of the air interacting with my cat's litter box." Environmentalists speculated that the first heavy rain in weeks had flooded storm drains with debris, oil, animal waste and litter. As the material decomposed, it may have created odors. This could explain why the smell was DETECTED IN SOME AREAS AND NOT OTHERS. "It was like a stew of sulfur, sewage and bad omen." Bacteria levels in the coastal waters — which many storm drains run into — were 10 times the acceptable state levels Tuesday and were expected to be even higher Wednesday. In addition, the red tide of algae bloom in the ocean has been particularly heavy in the last few days, which may be responsible for fishy odors that have wafted to areas within about a quarter-mile of the coast. Reddish by day and glowing green at night, the red tide moves with the currents. "It's patchy throughout the bay, so some areas might be more funky than others." After Tuesday's rains, surfers were describing the shoreline as "one big glowing blob."

In WASHINGTON D.C., unexplained odors were reported all across the district. Between midnight and 1 p.m. WEDNESDAY, firefighters received 36 calls and responded to 11 schools, as well as the fifth and sixth district police stations. What the odor is and where it's coming from remains a mystery. It's possible that storm drains could be to blame, since the lack of rain has kept them from being flushed. Most of the complaints came from Northeast Washington, where the ODOR SEEMED TO COME AND GO FOR NO DISCERNIBLE REASON. There was no consensus on what it smelled like, only that it was nasty. "It smelled like skunk, rotten eggs and sulfur."

State and federal environmental officials are trying to determine the cause of a big stink reported along Lake Erie. Hundreds of residents called authorities or the National Weather Service THURSDAY to report the smell, which has been variously described as like gasoline, natural gas or even decaying garbage and rotten eggs. The smell was strongest yesterday morning when a cold front swept through the area, churning up larger than normal waves from Erie to Dunkirk, NEW YORK. Scientists believe the churning waters may have released some naturally occurring gases that are normally trapped beneath the lake's deeper waters. Decaying plants and fish washed ashore by the waves could also be contributing to the stench. The wave-churning theory makes sense because THE SMELL LESSENED WHEN THE WAVES DIMINISHED. "It's like the lake burped, and then the burp passed by us."

(link currently not working) A strange smell was turning up noses and had people in the Southern Tier, Jamestown, NEW YORK, asking questions THURSDAY afternoon.

A mysterious smell has been lingering around numerous neighborhoods in one local community in OHIO, and now residents want to know where that odor is coming from and if it's dangerous. Neighbors living along Hospital Road in Bellaire describe the smell as putrid. They say THE SMELL HAS BEEN FLOATING INTO THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS. During the day the air smells fine, but at night neighbors say the odor is nauseating. Neighbors say the strong odor will start on various evenings around 9:00 p.m., and linger there sometimes until morning.

A red tide outbreak detected nearly TWO MONTHS AGO along FLORIDA's west coast has reached Panhandle beaches, killing fish and sea turtles and causing respiratory problems for humans. It's the region's worst in seven years. The toxic algae OUTBREAK IS SPOTTY, AFFECTING SOME BEACHES BUT NOT OTHERS. It has turned the normally blue-green Gulf of Mexico a reddish brown. "I thought the water was weird. It looks like river water." Visitors left after less than 30 minutes because their noses started burning and they couldn't stop coughing. The smell also was rancid.

In SINGAPORE, at Marine Terrace, residents were concerned about a strong smell like gas. 'I noticed the smell at about 6pm and thought there was a gas leak in my house. But it wasn't from my house.' Another resident thought it was fogging. The smell lasted until after 9pm. The police said they received 52 calls from Marine Terrace, Chai Chee, Siglap, Bedok Reservoir and the East Coast area. The first call came at 6.30pm. The police, SCDF and Singapore Power officers responded, but no gas leak was detected.

[SITE NOTE - If these odors of gas are related to methane released from the bottom of seabeds, it could be very serious. A sudden, fatal dose of global warming 180 million years ago during the time of the dinosaurs was caused by methane release. Vast amounts of methane gas were released to the atmosphere in three massive ‘methane burps’ or pulses. The addition of methane, a greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere had a severe impact on the environment, warming Earth about 10°C, and resulting in the extinction of a large number of species on land and in the oceans. The methane came from gas hydrate, a frozen mixture of water and methane found in huge quantities on the seabed. This hydrate suddenly melted, allowing the methane to escape.]

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1987 - a 5.4 quake stuck Peru, 3 killed.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.

Saturday, October 1, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
4.8 ETHIOPIA
4.1 COLORADO, UNITED STATES

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.7 NEW BRITAIN
5.1 NEW BRITAIN
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 COSTA RICA
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

A series of earthquakes has rattled the eastern reaches of Papua New Guinea but there were no reports of tidal waves. The first and largest tremor measured about 6.5 on the Richter scale. It was followed by quakes measuring 5.9 and 5.6 within three hours. The latest quakes come three weeks after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck off the east coast of Papua New Guinea causing a "small tsunami" of 40 to 50cm in Rabaul harbour.

ODD LANDSLIDE -
In Alaska, a huge landslide in the Chugach Mountains was big enough to register on seismic devices worldwide. An estimated 35 million cubic yards of rock and ice slid from the south face of Mount Steller at about noon on September 14th. The slide caught the attention of scientists because it produced a mysterious, slow, rolling signal that lasted three minutes. A seismologist with the Alaska Volcano Observatory says the slide created as much energy as a 3.8 magnitude quake.
The amount of rock and ice that fell was equal to a pile one mile long, one-third mile wide and 50 yards high. The immense landslide exploded down a remote peak last week, ringing the globe with a mysterious seismic pulse and dumping enough debris to bury Midtown Anchorage at least three feet deep. The run-out descended 8,000 feet down the peak and extended almost six miles before dusting a swath of the Bering Glacier, about 240 miles east of Anchorage. "The rock slide is indeed enormous, but I think the thing that's really unusual is the seismic signal is much larger than what you'd expect. We're still trying to figure out why." "I've never seen anything like this, and what surprised me is how huge it was. It's more like an explosion, I would say, than an earthquake. It hit the ground and seismic waves traveled in all directions." It's not clear what triggered the release, the scientists said. It wasn't caused by an earthquake. No one knows if warming climate could have weakened ice holding the mountain together. Mountain ranges like the Chugach are perpetually crumbling, near a "state of failure". Glaciers generate certain kinds of "tiny, tiny, tiny earthquakes" in the minutes before a major ice avalanche. The same sort of minuscule quakes occurred on Mount Steller within a half hour of the collapse. "I think the earthquakes are actually the initial stages of failure," indicating that glacier is slipping at its base. But this one I'm puzzled by (because) this one failed in rock." "When this huge mass of rock hit the ground, it basically produced a low frequency pulse that propagated through the entire Earth. So it was definitely unusual."

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 249 nmi SSW of Kadena AB, Okinawa and 261 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.
In China, the spell of cloudy and rainy weather brought by Typhoon Damrey ended Tuesday. But Typhoon Longwang, the 19th typhoon this year, was expected to bring wind and rains to the city by Monday.
The typhoon continues to threaten Northern Luzon, in the Philippines.

Tropical storm Damrey left six districts in Lampang, Thailand under water and caused chaos in many areas as people tried frantically to evacuate the city amid traffic jams. The situation could turn critical as more water is expected to enter the area, spilling over from the Kiew Lom Dam. Meanwhile the southwesterly moonsoon continued to slam eastern provinces.
Thousands of soldiers scoured northern Vietnam on Friday searching for survivors after Typhoon Damrey triggered flash floods and landslides that left at least 60 people dead or missing. The typhoon, THE MOST POWERFUL TO HIT VIETNAM IN A DECADE, smashed through dikes and unleashed a torrent of water that swept away homes, destroyed rice fields and knocked out electricity to two provinces with 5 million people. The storm damaged nearly 10,000 homes and smashed through 275 yards of sea dikes along the northern coast. More than 148,000 acres of rice fields and shrimp farms were inundated with salt water when the dikes were breached.

2 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression KENNETH was 28 nmi SE of Hilo, HI.
Hurricane OTIS was 115 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, creeping slowly NW towards Baja California.

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical depression 19 was 1495 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados and 1571 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
Summary of significant weather events so far this year.

Due to the climatic changes we are experiencing it is best to be ready for rain any time, not only now but from now on. (This is an article from Fiji, but it could apply to many locations.) It may sound drastic, but this is all part of what the scientists, the environment and weather experts have constantly warned us about. It is no wonder that some days, in the middle of a bright sunny day the weather turns gloomy and there is rain in the afternoon. The truth is that these days the weather is more and more unpredictable. Meteorologists can't be blamed, it is simply the constant climatic changes that even the latest of modern technology fails to detect. "Those wanting to build on new sites must make sure they are far from the coast to avoid strong winds and currents that could topple the house down during the slightest of floods. It is better to build away from the coastal areas and rivers and opt for high land." From 9am on Wednesday to 9am Thursday Fiji had 163mm of rain. In September, Fiji had experienced 177 mm of rain, so 163mm in one day is a lot of rain. The highest rain recorded by the weather office in one day was in 1963 when it reached a record 214mm. Surprisingly, the World Wide Fund has revealed that the level of awareness of climate change in the Pacific region is low.

A rare combination of a very strong cold front and an intense drop from high pressure to low were to blame for blustery conditions in New Hampshire. “We only see this maybe once in the spring, once in the fall.” The winds began gradually picking up speed in the morning and peaked during 15-20 minutes of heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Few parts of New Hampshire escaped the rain and heavy winds, but the northern part of the state faced the most severe weather. Winds in Columbia peaked at 62 mph. The storm also affected coastal portions of Maine and Massachusetts.

The Charleston, South Carolina area was inundated Wednesday with upward of a half-foot of rain that broke records, flooded streets and snarled traffic. Almost 3 inches of rain fell in downtown Charleston while the totals were about twice that on the nearby sea islands. By 11 a.m., a record total of 2.79 inches of rain had fallen at Waterfront Park in downtown Charleston, breaking the old record for the date of 1.91 inches set in 1957. Forecasters said the remnants of a weak front were draped across the Charleston area and an upper level low pressure system was pumping in moisture bringing heavy rains to the area.

A violent storm that ripped through southwestern Quebec Thursday caused power outages, closed roads and created traffic headaches. Wind blowing from the south gusted up to 90 kilometres an hour, knocking trees and branches onto power lines and cutting electricity to approximately 250,000 Hydro-Quebec customers. "The wind was very strong and very sudden. Almost everyone was affected in some way." Environment Canada issued a severe wind warning for most of the day. The storm was the result of an intense low-pressure system over the southern part of the province. "There are often storms like this when we're in between seasons. It wasn't normal but it was not unusual, either." The storm had nothing to do with Hurricane Rita. The tail end of that weather system brought them heavy rain on Monday.

UNUSUAL THINGS IN THE SKIES -
On Sept. 26, in Belgium, they observed something strange: a rainbow with no sun and no rain. It takes two things to make a rainbow - raindrops and sunlight. Raindrops act like tiny prisms, catching sunbeams and splitting them into their primary colors. "It was a very strange rainbow." "This red rainbow is a mystery because the sun had set four minutes earlier and was well below the horizon. Furthermore, there was no rain falling and none visible on local weather radar!"

Experts believe a meteor was visible along a large section of the Florida skyline Thursday night (9/29), although NASA officials have not confirmed what the intensely bright, fast object exactly was. The glowing orb was spotted around 7 p.m.; some who saw it called county and state officials to ensure that it wasn't a crashing aircraft. "This one could've been from a baseball to a basketball-sized chunk of space rock that slammed into our Earth's atmosphere at a very high speed." A meteorologist wasn't sure if the object, which he believes was a meteor, was over Atlantic Ocean waters or the Florida peninsula. "All of a sudden this thing shot from my right. And it was super fast, so you know it was in a hurry. It turned from orange to the-center-of-the-sun yellow then it disintegrated." Residents from the state's Space Coast region all the way to South Florida reported seeing the object.

On Monday a rare annular eclipse will darken the Sun in a swathe across Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In an annular eclipse, the Moon moves between the Sun and Earth but, because of a tiny difference in distance due to celestial mechanics, does not completely cover the solar face as in a total eclipse. Instead the Moon appears as a shaded disk, with a dazzling, beaded corona around its rim. The corridor in which this dramatic event can be seen is a narrow one, snaking from the North Atlantic, where it starts at 10.41am (841GMT), across the Iberian peninsula and then to northern and eastern Africa before petering out in the Indian Ocean. Countries that lie on this path comprise Spain, as well as Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, northern Chad, central Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Total eclipses happen about once every 18 months, although these usually fall over the sea or uninhabited areas. The next total eclipse, on March 29, 2006, will traverse equatorial West Africa, the Sahara, western Mediterranean, Turkey and Russia.

DROUGHT -
September is traditionally the end of the four-month rainy season in Southwest Florida, but a persistent high-pressure ridge over the state made this year different. While plants have withered, the Bermuda high that has thwarted thunderstorm development for more than a month also steered Hurricane Rita away from the Sunshine State and pushed Katrina away from the west coast. Hurricane Ophelia, which lingered off the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida for nearly 10 days earlier this month, also helped funnel dry air into the South. The 1.04 inches of rain this month is more than 6 inches below normal. Combined with the nearly 4-inch August deficit, the final two months of the traditional rainy season could also rank as the driest on record. “We’re having a very rare situation indeed.” The prolonged hot and dry weather could increase the wildfire threat this winter and next spring. The shortest rainy season until now was in 1984, when 6.29 inches fell in August and September at Sarasota-Bradenton's airport. This year, only 6.08 inches have fallen since Aug. 1. Southwest Florida typically receives 16.7 inches during the two months. This summer also will mark Tampa's driest July through September in 115 years of weather records, shattering the previous record of 11.9 inches in 1944. Only 8.26 inches of rain have fallen at Tampa International Airport since July 1. Above-normal precipitation in Southwest Florida from February through June has kept this year's rainfall within 10 percent of the norm of 46.4 inches through September.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1969 - a 6.4 quake struck Central Peru, 136 dead. It was the 220th aftershock of a 5.9 quake on July 24th. More than 1,375 aftershocks were recorded through October 17.
In 1987 - a 5.9 quake struck Southern California, 8 dead.
In 1995 - a 6.3 quake struck Turkey, 100 dead, 50,000 homeless.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays. NO NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST WEEK

Friday, September 30, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
6.0 NEW BRITAIN
5.9 NEW BRITAIN
5.6 NEW BRITAIN
5.4 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 NEW BRITAIN
4.9 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SAMOA ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

Southern Idaho has had several quakes in the last few days (2.6, 3.8, 3.5, 3.5, 3.7), shaking items off shelves and jolting residents out of their sleep. Instruments have been recording from 50 to 100 earthquakes per day around Clear Creek in the last week. One woman said she's often felt tremors in the 19 years she's lived at her home — but only in the last week have they been strong enough to get her up in the night. The quakes may be one to two miles underground, instead of the more common three to seven miles below. That would make them easier to feel. "The swarm is a little unusual, but we don't know that it's unusual enough for people to be worried." Scientists speculate that the swarm will go on for weeks or months — but they can't say how strong future earthquakes might be. There is a fault in the earth near the Clear Creek area, but it's not clear if the swarm at Clear Creek is related to that fault or to any other. "I'm kind of thinking there is some potential for a somewhat larger quake," but not much larger. Idaho is ranked fifth in the nation on a scale of earthquake risk. The risk is greater only in California, Nevada, Utah and Alaska.

South-central Chile, which in 1960 suffered the strongest recorded earthquake in history (9.5), is unlikely to face another such giant for as long as 300 years, scientists said on Wednesday. But smaller, though still dangerous quakes, will continue to strike there.

TSUNAMI -
A warning was put out that a possible Tsunami in the Arabia Sea this year-end may target parts of Gujarat and Mumbai on the Western coast of India. Scientists at the National Geophysical Research Institute have discounted the warning by an India-born Canadian Tsunami expert. “There is yet no technology available anywhere in the world to predict earthquakes. Tsunami occurs when the epicenter of an earthquake is beneath an ocean. So, how can one predict Tsunami when we cannot forecast earthquakes?” The tsunami expert based his prediction on the fact that the first-known major Tsunami occurred in the Bay of Bengal in August 1883 followed by another in November 1945 in the Arabian Sea. The third Tsunami occurred in the Bay of Bengal in December 2004 and he believes that the next one is likely to occur in the Arabian Sea in 2005.

TROPICAL STORMS -

2 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depresssion KENNETH was 137 nmi ESE of Hilo, HI. Heavy rain is likely in the Hawaiian Islands today and Saturday. A flash flood watch is in effect.
Category 1 Hurricane OTIS was 132 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula.

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 558 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan, moving towards southern China, and it's expected to affect southern China from Sunday to Tuesday. Less typhoons are expected to slash China after this one, since the country's typhoon season usually lasts from July to September. The latest typhoon to ever land in China was in December.
Flash floods sparked by Typhoon Damrey, which hit Vietnam Tuesday, have wreaked havoc in the northern province of Yen Bai, with Cat Thinh commune completely devastated. In front of a boarding school, dozens of parents were mourning the loss of a large number of students, their children, who had been swept away the previous night. In the commune, hundreds of houses have been leveled or seriously damaged and seven bridges have collapsed. Dozens of hectares of rice, and hundreds of heads of cattle and pigs, the local people’s major means of livelihood, had also been swept away.

0 in the Atlantic
A Special Tropical Disturbance Statement has been issued - an area of disturbed weather located between the Cayman Islands and Honduras remains disorganized and a tropical depression has not formed. There is still some potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it moves slowly to the NW or WNW.

Meteorologists examining the conditions that spawned hurricanes Rita and Katrina say there is a strong likelihood that another intense hurricane will occur in October. And while late-season storms tend to track eastward toward Florida or don't make landfall at all, the experts don't rule out the possibility of another major storm targeting the battered Gulf Coast. Researchers also warn that the country should brace for 10 to 40 more years of powerful storms because of a natural ocean cycle in the midst of the most active hurricane period on record. A forecast group is predicting that October will see two hurricanes, one of them reaching Category 3, 4 or 5. The chance of that storm making landfall in the United States is estimated at 21%. Historical patterns show it would be unusual but not impossible for the Gulf Coast to be hit with a major October storm. What was unusual about Rita and Katrina was that they formed close to U.S. shores, near the Bahamas. This means they did not have much time to grow powerful before first hitting land.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
Forecasters are keeping close watch in Fiji, where heavy rain is flooding rural villages and threatening resorts in southern parts of Viti Levu. Southern bridges and roads, including part of the main Queens Highway, were closed by flooding. Some villages have been evacuated.

The skies have once again opened up in India, drenching north coastal districts from Wednesday morning with heavy rain. Two persons died when lightning struck them at Itchapuram. With the Cyclone Warning Centre forecasting heavy rain during the next 36 hours, the Visakhapatnam district declared a holiday for all schools on Thursday.

Strong winds, possibly a tornado, felled trees and damaged property in County Antrim villages in Ireland on Wednesday. Tornadoes there are not as uncommon as one might think, a meteorologist has said. "Northern Ireland gets four or five such events a year, possibly more."

Intense rains throughout southern Mexico and parts of Central America have caused rivers to overflow and triggered landslides, killing at least three people and forcing thousands to flee their homes.

Two horses were hit by lightning in Meadow Vista, California on Monday. An artist who lives on the ranch property where the lightning struck, said he grew up in Africa and lived in Palm Springs, where thunderstorms are severe. "I can tell you this was on par with anything I've ever seen. Sheets of lightning were shooting across the horizon, lighting the sky like it was daytime." "It was an impossible freak storm that came out of nowhere." The storm dumped 0.64 inches of rain in Auburn and 0.74 inches in Foresthill. "Basically there was a bull's-eye of low pressure that centered on central California. It was warm, so that added energy and air moisture contributed to the activity we had." There were reports of large hail in Nevada City. "We don't see a lot of lightning like that here. It is noteworthy." "It shook the ground and car alarms were going off." The storm also interrupted the television broadcasts on KOVR 13 for around 2 ½ hours after a lightning blot struck its CBS transmission tower in Sacramento.

FIRES -
Bush fires are threatening suburbs in Southern California. Thursday morning several homes in Los Angeles and Ventura counties were evacuated. Seven-hundred fire-fighters battled the blazes, the largest covered 2,800 hectares. The fires were whipped by high Santa Ana winds of up to 70 km/h. Some homes were destroyed and flames and smoke were visible for several kilometres. The largest blaze burned to the edge of a number of multimillion-dollar homes in the San Fernando Valley.

Louisiana's next natural disaster may be wildfires. Hurricane Katrina flattened nearly 75 percent of the loblolly and slash pine trees that covered about a half million acres in three parishes north of Lake Pontchartrain. "So what they have out there is similar to what we had here in Florida after four hurricanes last year - a lot of fuel for wildfires and drought conditions." "This destruction was on such a grand scale that there has not been any salvage arrangements yet and there may never be." The situation in Louisiana, with impassable roads, demolished infrastructure and a half million acres of trees, makes salvaging timber nearly impossible. Homeowners who returned to their property have already stacked forest debris 6 to 8 feet high along roadways creating additional fuel for any fires that break out.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1970 - a 6.3 quake struck the Philippine Islands region.
In 1999 – A 7.5 earthquake rocked southern Mexico, toppling church towers and old homes in Oaxaca and shaking buildings in the capital. At least 27 people killed and 122 injured.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday,September 29, 2005 -
(SHORT VERSION TODAY)

Largest quakes this morning -
4.2 EASTERN CAUCASUS

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.7, 4.2, 4.0, 3.9)
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

TROPICAL STORMS -

1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 612 nmi SSE of Kagoshima, Japan.
Typhoon Damrey petered out over Laos after killing at least 71 people and cutting a swath of destruction in a week-long sweep through East Asia, while elsewhere landslides triggered by heavy rains killed 51 in Nepal. The storm killed 36 people in Vietnam, 16 in the Philippines, 16 in southern China and three in Thailand, where it caused widespread flooding in the north. Five people have been reported missing there.

2 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 15E was 174 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Its movement may possibly result in landfall along the west coast of Baja california in 96 - 120 hours. One model rockets the cyclone northward and has it over southern Utah in 120 hours. Intensification to hurricane strength is forecast.
Tropical storm KENNETH was 696 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI. This system should steadily weaken for the next 72 hours, dropping below tropical storm strength this afternoon. Winds over the main Hawaiian Islands should be relatively light.

0 in the Atlantic -

Accusations of fraud and waste have been made over the handing out of huge contracts to help evacuees and rebuilding after the two major hurricanes that hit the southern United States in one month. The US government has sought to counter the allegations by insisting that the deals were too urgent to be put out to tender. Contracts have gone to Kellogg, Brown and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, which used to be run by Vice-President Dick Cheney and has come in for criticism over its Iraq deals, and the Bechtel engineering firm, which also has links to President George W. Bush's administration. Fraud fears have been raised over special permission given to some federal employees to spend up to $US250,000 using credit cards for hurricane expenses, when they normally have a limit of $US2500. Past investigations into credit card fraud by government officials have shown that the money sometimes went to prostitutes and casino gambling.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1969 - a 6.3 quake struck South Africa. Only a few minutes before the earth started shaking, hundreds of rats suddenly began running through the streets, as if they sensed something unusual was about to happen. One observer said, "Frankly, I was more terrified by the rats than by the tremors."
In 1982 - a 5.5 quake struck Guatemala. 3 were killed.
In 1993 - a 6.3 quake struck Southern India, the largest to ever hit the area, Around 10,000 people were killed.


Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
4.2 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.8, 4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.3, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 3.8)
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NORTHWESTERN BALKAN PENNINSULA

TSUNAMI -
Scientists are studying the possibility giant tsunami could wash over Hawaii if a mammoth earthquake of magnitude nine struck west or southwest of the state. They are also studying the possibility that tsunami could slam into the islands from areas that haven't sent seismic waves Hawaii's way in the past.

VOLCANO -
A small eruption on Tuesday of the Volcano of Fire in western Mexico scattered ash onto adjacent towns. Officials had warned Monday that an eruption this week was likely.

TROPICAL STORMS -
1 in the NW Pacific -
Typhoon LONGWANG was 634 nmi SSE of Kagoshima, Japan.
Typhoon Damrey smashed into Vietnam on Tuesday, tearing into vital networks of sea dykes on a long stretch of coastline, after killing at least 31 people in China and the Philippines. It was THE MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON TO HIT NORTHERN VIETNAM IN A DECADE and it injured nine people. 300,000 people along the coast were evacuated. Some 950 homes were destroyed and another 9,000 were badly damaged. High tides sent 15-foot waves surging over a 100-mile sea wall in Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh. In another spot in Thanh Hoa, waves burst through the dike, creating a 100-foot-long break that flooded one village.

3 in the NE Pacific -
Tropical depression 15E was 137 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical depression NORMA was 371 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KENNETH was 818 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI. The latest forecast track says Kenneth will be weakening as it approaches Hawaii and should dissipate near the islands sometime between Friday and Saturday. But while they may be out of the woods from a direct hit, the storm is expected to bring some severe weather to the Big Island by Friday with heavy rain and high surf, although the winds should be light.

0 in the Atlantic -
The conveyor belt off the western coast of Africa was extremely active yesterday. Satellite images showed thunderstorm cells moving westward off the coast. There is activity in the Atlantic basin that forecasters are watching for possible development - the large system south of Cuba was becoming better organized and a hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to check the wave today. Upper-level winds have also become more favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next day or so. An area of low pressure along a westward-moving tropical wave is located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. A large non-tropical area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles east of Bermuda. This system is expected to move northeastward and merge with a front within the next day or two. In addition, a disturbance in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico is a remnant of Hurricane Rita, which struck the Texas-Louisiana coast early Saturday.

The death toll from Hurricane Katrina rose to 1121 as 44 more bodies were found in Louisiana. The toll from Hurricane Rita, which struck on Saturday, rose to at least 10.

An atmospheric scientist who has spent decades studying how hurricanes reach their peak strength, "had this terrible feeling of dread" when he saw that Hurricane Katrina's track in the Gulf of Mexico would carry it right over an oceanographic phenomenon known as the loop current. Late Friday he felt the same dread when it seemed as if Hurricane Rita, fueled by the same current, was going to pass over a related warm eddy and grow even stronger. To his relief, Rita did not, and that is one reason the storm weakened substantially before coming ashore. For a long time the loop current, a great ribbon of hot water meandering through the Gulf of Mexico, has been little more than an oceanographic curiosity but, because of its role in energizing storms, it is now a centerpiece of hurricane forecasts. The current is a conveyor belt of banked solar energy, typically with more than 100 times the flow of the Amazon. All other things being equal, its presence or absence appears to be essential for a hurricane in the region to achieve the rare state of the superstorm - one reaching the physical limits of power and size possible in earth's atmosphere. There are seven regions where oceanic hot spots are big enough and deep enough to allow hurricanes to reach their peak, including several places south of Japan and east of Indonesia. Along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, the source of energy for major storms is the great flow of waters generated in the Caribbean.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
In South Africa, high winds powered by a thunderstorm uprooted trees, blew roofs off houses, plunged large parts of Gauteng into darkness and left one man dead. Winds gusting at more than 50km/h wreaked havoc across Gauteng, causing thousands of rands’ damage to property and widespread power outages. “I’ve never experienced a wind like this." A car dealer in Bryanston reported that the wind had smashed all the windows in his dealership. In Ekurhuleni, roofs were blown off a block of flats in Brakpan and a school in Tsakane. Fires broke out at homes in Duduza. “One moment everything was calm; the next, the winds were blowing branches down onto my car, smashing my windscreen.” Two people were left dead from a lightning strike and at least one was swept away by a river. A mother and her two children were using stepping stones to cross the Braamfontein Spruit, when they were hit by a wall of water. Within an instant, the spruit, which is normally only a trickle, had been transformed into a deep, fast-moving torrent. An eyewitness to their predicament tried to grab the mother but was unsuccessful. According to the Water Wing, the river disappearance was the 11th such incident its members had responded to since November 27.

A relentless downpour forced hundreds from their homes in the western Newfoundland and Labrador community of Stephenville,Canada, after a pair of rain-filled rivers running through the town burst their banks. More than 110 millimetres of rain fell on the western Newfoundland town overnight, spurring local officials to declare a state of emergency early Tuesday and rain was still falling.

Victoria, Australia faces a day of wild weather as a strong cool change sweeps across the state. Potentially damaging winds would average between 60km/h and 80km/h, with stronger squalls expected. Severe thunderstorms are expected over the Mallee region, in the state's far north-west, which could produce localised damaging wind gusts and brief periods of heavy rain. A flood watch has been issued for main rivers in the state's north-east.

An intense lightning storm Sunday night shorted out power and damaged transformers throughout Lompoc, California for hours. City officials said they recorded about 250 lightning strikes in the Lompoc Valley during the thunderstorm. "My experience is, certainly it is quite unusual to have something this early. In the 15 years I lived here, I've never seen lightning this bad." "Usually we don't have thunderstorms this time of year, although we do get moisture. It's unusual to have had rain last week and now a week later in September." The long-range predictions are that rainfall will be normal this fall and winter.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1965 – A volcano 56km south of Manila in Philippines erupted, killing 184.
In 2002 – Increasingly cool and humid weather helped firefighters to bring a 14,500-hectare wildfire in the Angeles National Forest northeast of Los Angeles to 65 per cent containment. Since September 22, the fire had destroyed 72 buildings and forced the evacuation of 2000 residents.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Tuesday,September 27, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
4.8 ETHIOPIA (see volcano section)
5.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 NORTHWESTERN BALKAN PENNINSULA

Largest quakes yesterday -
7.5 NORTHERN PERU (4 people killed, thousands homeless.)
5.1 NORTHWESTERN IRAN
5.3 TAJIKISTAN
5.1 AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN BDR
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.2 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.9, 4.9, 4.3)
5.3 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

TSUNAMI -
Auckland could be hit with little or no warning by a south-bound tsunami from the Pacific Ocean near Fiji, a scientist has warned. Aucklanders needed to be more aware of the dangers of tidal waves in view of the Boxing Day Tsunami in Southeast Asia. Devastated Sri Lanka was similar to many places in New Zealand in having a long narrow stretch of exposed coast, which was open to wave after wave. A tsunami threat could be caused by earthquake, landslide or volcanic eruption. It could come from three distant areas - South America, the Tonga-Kermadec Trench (about 1000km north-east of Auckland), and the volcanic zone up north near Fiji.

It took just a few hours for the tsunami in the Indian Ocean to wash away a million jobs, hundreds of thousands of homes and at least 240,000 lives. But it will take at least a decade to rebuild the shattered communities. World Bank analysts estimate that it will take at least $13 billion to rebuild coastal areas in India, Indonesia, Maldives and Sri Lanka, the most damaged countries. That sounded like a lot of money until Hurricane Katrina, which is likely to run up a reconstruction bill that is more than $50 billion and pose some of the same questions.

VOLCANO -
An earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale has caused the eruption of a long-dormant volcano in northern Ethiopia on the weekend, but no immediate damage or injuries have been reported. The quake, which struck the remote region of Afar, about 980km northeast of the capital on Saturday, was followed by the severe eruption of Mount Arteale, Ethiopia's only active volcano which has been largely dormant for the past six decades. Molten lava spewed from the volcano, covering large portions of its slopes and surrounding areas and thick blankets of ash and plumes of smoke were reported in the region. The eruption began early Sunday and continued throughout the day. The quake and eruption were caused by the expansion of tectonic plates under the Great Rift Valley, which for years has been regarded as highly susceptible to earthquakes and volcano eruptions.

A detailed study reveals that without emergency measures, Lake Nyos in Cameroon could release a lethal cloud of carbon dioxide, capable of wiping out entire communities around its shores. The lake, which sits atop a volcano, contained record levels of carbon dioxide. "In both lakes, there's been a 12% to 14% reduction in overall gas content, which is the good news. The bad news is that the single pipes are not sufficient to rapidly remove as much as is needed to make them safe. There is still more gas in both lakes than was released in the 1980s. We could have a gas burst tomorrow that could be bigger than either of those disasters and every day we wait is just an accumulation of the probability that something bad is going to happen."

After a temporary lull early this month, Anatahan's volcano is again showing signs of activity in the Mariana Islands, with long-period earthquakes occurring. The volcanic earthquakes indicate magmatic movement that may lead to another eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
2 in NW Pacific -
Tropical storm LONGWANG was 504 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana.
Tropical storm DAMREY was 94 nmi SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam. Some northeastern provinces of Thailand began to feel the impact of Damrey yesterday, as heavy rain caused a sharp rise in the levels of major rivers and inundated some areas. The storm's influence was predicted to last until Thursday. The arrival of Damrey had prompted serious discussions about unusual changes in the weather pattern in the region. ``The number of extreme weather events hitting the country has increased in recent years. Normally, Thailand gets only about two storms each year, but the number has jumped to five this year."

2 in NE Pacific -
Tropical depression NORMA was 371 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (gradually weakening)
Tropical storm KENNETH was 1008 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii. (Expected to weaken gradually. Currently inching its way along.)

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical depression RITA was 546 nmi W of Atlantic City, NJ.

The National Hurricane Center is watching a quickly developing system in the Caribbean that could end up in the Gulf of Mexico within four to five days. The conditions are and will continue to be favorable for development as wind sheer in the region is low and could possibly allow the system to become a tropical storm or minimal hurricane by the end of the week. Forecasters are also watching a developing system off the Cape Verde Islands just off Africa that is showing potential development but is still 1,500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
A third area, a large non-tropical area of low pressure, is centered several hundred miles east of Bermuda. Upper-level winds do not favor tropical cyclone development with this system.

There is a "one-in-one chance" of Wales suffering a direct hit by a major hurricane in the next few years, according to a leading climate change expert. There is widespread complacency about the potential threat. A climatological quirk has meant the Atlantic jet stream, which usually pushes hurricanes onto land and diminishes their power, has not been in evidence this summer, meaning a number of systems have stalled in the Atlantic, causing them to grow even further in ferocity. The coincidence of so many hurricanes can also often lead to collisions between them, sending the storms off in unexpected directions. Hurricanes can only form where the sea temperature is at least 26.5C. But with increasingly warmer seas, Atlantic temperatures are now surpassing this by more and for longer, leading to stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Less than two weeks ago one such system, Hurricane Maria, became the FIRST HURRICANE EVER TO HIT BRITAIN when it brushed the north edge of Scotland, on its way into Norway, where one person was killed by the storm. The rest of the country had a narrow escape when Maria, which had been on course to cause severe damage to North Wales, was knocked from its path by another hurricane. "If it had come straight for us, the results would probably have been worse than New Orleans in terms of the amount of rain. There have been three hurricanes heading directly for us this year, but as it happens, none have hit us badly yet...This is very, very serious and it's getting really very likely. Looking at it from a global warming point of view, it's a near certainty that something big will hit us soon."

American scientists rated New York as the fifth most hurricane-threatened area in the country. A hurricane any bigger than Katrina or Rita could bring the city's famous skyscrapers crashing down, with many only designed to withstand a category three storm. "A category four or five hurricane hitting any of those skyscrapers would cause a serious structural failure or even collapse."

There is no clear signal of a change in frequency of hurricane, either in terms of occurring more or less frequently, after taking into account normal cyclical variations. There is no evidence of cyclones or hurricanes tracking further north or south into higher latitudes. And with one exception, there has been no evidence of these storms developing over areas where the sea surface temperature has always been warm enough for their development, but prevailing higher level winds tear the hurricane apart before it can turn into the giant circular masses of rotating storm clouds so apparent in weather satellite images of their progress. That exception was Brazil's first ever hurricane in March last year, which formed over a part of the South Atlantic where there are vast areas of warm water, but giant tropical storms had been unknown. However data concerning increased intensity of cyclonic storms looks much stronger.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
Flooding in dozens of small communities forced hundreds of evacuations in Costa Rica. A state of emergency was declared in Aguirre on the southern Pacific Coast. More than 600 people had been evacuated, 27 bridges had been damaged and many people had yet to be accounted for. Emergency response teams said their rescue efforts were hindered by continued rain and poor weather throughout the country, which made reaching affected areas by air especially difficult.

The incessant rains over the past week in India have submerged several villages in Uttar Pradesh, forcing villagers to take shelter in government buildings and schools. At least 32 villages in the Muzaffarnagar district have been completely devastated by overflowing waters of the Ganga Canal, which has washed away livestock, property and standing crop worth millions of rupees. Heavy rains have also damaged the cotton crop in Punjab. The state received 122 percent of normal rainfall last week.

In Nepal, as many as 1500 people have been displaced in Kanchanpur district Sunday night after a dam on the Mahakali river burst, following two days of incessant rain. The incessant rain and landslides along the main road in Baitadi has led to the death of one youth. More than five-dozen houses were also swept away by the deluge.

Pensacola, Florida received almost its average September rainfall total in two hours yesterday. More than 5 inches of rain fell at Pensacola Regional Airport in two hours. Extreme northern areas of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties received between 6 and 8 inches. Flooding reports poured in. The rain is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Rita and a cold front.

The National Weather Service has confirmed three F-2 tornadoes so far in Arkansas from the remnants of Hurricane Rita. The twisters each traveled in a southeast-to-northwest direction - which is unusual for the state. Most tornadoes that touch down in Arkansas are born of spring or summer thunderstorm cells, and the tornadoes usually trace a path from southwest to northeast. That path is in the usual direction of air flow along the boundary between a mass of warm, moist air and a cold front approaching from the northwest. But Saturday's tornadoes followed the counter-clockwise path of the former Hurricane Rita.

Southern Minnesota is drying out after a weekend of heavy rains. Between 6 and 9 inches of rain were dumped on Faribault, Martin and Freeborn counties. A number of homes and businesses were affected - and some had water in their basements that reached up to the rafters. Many secondary roads were flooded and some were washed out.

Heavy rains flooded basements and closed part of Interstate 43 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin Sunday and early Monday, stranding several vehicles. The National Weather Service said a RECORD 1.4 INCHES of rain fell by Sunday night, flooding underpasses.

Heavy rains on Sunday and into Monday morning are being blamed for the death of a man in Michigan, along with localized flooding and power outages. Rainfall at the Muskegon County Airport totaled up to 4.1 inches over a 24-hour period. Areas are still more than five inches below normal for the year. The rain was attributable to a high-pressure system to the west, combined with a low-pressure system to the southeast. They had the effect of slowly spinning heavy rainclouds so that they passed over the same areas again and again. But none of that likely had anything to do with Hurricane Rita. Its northernmost fringe stopped in the area of Kalamazoo. ( link requires quick registration.)

WILDFIRES -
Wildfires began claiming lives in South Africa – 3 humans plus animals – on Monday as they ran unabated across the hot, dry countryside, fanned by heavy winds. Hundreds of families were left homeless when their houses were destroyed by fire and bad weather over the weekend.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1909 - a 5.1 quake struck Wabash River Valley, Indiana. It was the largest historical quake in Indiana.
In 1959 – A typhoon battered the Japanese island of Honshu, killing almost 5000 people.
In 1996 – Five children and four adults were killed when a cliff collapsed during a school excursion south of Perth, Australia.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays

Monday,September 26, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
7.5 NORTHERN PERU (at least 4 people killed as 10 houses collapsed.)
5.2 ETHIOPIA
5.5 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA ( plus 3.2)

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.1 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 4.8, 4.7, 4.6, 4.4, 4.3, 4.1)
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.7 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.7 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.7 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANO -
Kamchatka’s Shiveluch Volcano has steadied but ash discharges of up to eight kilometers are still possible. Local tremors and ash discharges of up to 6,500-7,000 meters lasted for nearly 5.5 hours on September 22. Researchers based in a camp ten kilometers away from the volcano said they heard a low frequency hum. Volcanic fragments tumbled down to a distance of 15 kilometers, and volcanic ash fell down on the village of Klyuchi, nearly 30 kilometers away from Shiveluch.

TROPICAL STORMS -
3 in NW Pacific -
Tropical depression 19W was 291 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Typhoon DAMREY was 173 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam. China's 18th typhoon this year made landfall near Wanning City in the island province of Hainan. The typhoon dwarfed all those that had hit Hainan since 1973 (31 years ago) and is the second largest in 45 years.
Typhoon SAOLA was 369 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.

3 in NE Pacific -
Tropical depression JOVA was 191 nmi NNE of Kahului,Hawaii. (just about dissipated, regeneration highly unlikely)
Hurricane KENNETH was 1076 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii. (Expected to weaken gradually. Currently inching its way along.)
Tropical storm NORMA was 304 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico . (gradually weakening)

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical depression RITA was 475 nmi N of Mobile, Alabama.

Hurricane Rita damaged a northeast Houston-area dam, forcing officials to release huge amounts of water thereby flooding homes. The crisis became apparent Saturday night, about 16 hours after Rita blew ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border with winds of 120 mph. Officials said damage to the Lake Livingston Dam gave them no option but to release water to prevent a worse catastrophe. Authorities downstream begun evacuating hundreds of homes in the lower Trinity River Valley.

Heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continued to whip Lake Charles and bayou communities along the Louisiana coast Saturday night, producing unexpected flooding that caught residents off guard as they tried to return home.

The brutal 2005 hurricane season may have more unpleasant shocks in store for coastal areas reeling from an almost unprecedented run of vicious storms, including deadly Hurricane Katrina and this weekend's powerful Rita. "We're still in the peak of the season here, that goes for another month or so. (It) makes me think that not only will we have more storms and hurricanes, but we could have another major hurricane or two." There have been 17 so far, and five have been "major" hurricanes, of Category 3 or higher.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
A strike of lightning led to the explosion of a tree in Canton, Michigan during Thursday night's storms. During the height of the storm, lightning struck a maple tree, ruptured a gas main and caused an explosion. The tree burst into flames.

Lightning struck two airplanes within an hour Friday in Hawaii. The planes were able to return safely to Honolulu International Airport. At 1:30 p.m., a Hawaiian Airlines flight was headed to Sacramento, Calif., when it was hit on the jet's nose. Flight attendants said there appeared to be a small hole in the nose. At 2:30 p.m., an Aloha Airlines jet headed for Kona was hit shortly after takeoff.
A Heli USA tour helicopter crashed into the sea in Hawaii during a sudden thunderstorm Friday afternoon, killing three passengers, while the pilot and two passengers were able to swim to shore. The crash occurred about 2:35 p.m. The pilot issued a radio mayday before the crash, saying he was experiencing wind shear. The time and location of the helicopter wreck placed the craft directly offshore as a powerful local thunderstorm hit the cliffs and valleys of north Kaua'i. Residents of Kaua'i's north shore reported that the freak storm appeared without notice about 2:30 p.m. Friday. "It was intense. It came out of nowhere. Rain, thunder, lightning, wind. And then in a half-hour it was gone." A flash flood that accompanied the storm raged down Manoa Stream — a few hundred yards from the crash site — within 20 minutes.

A hail storm hit vineyards in five villages in Georgia's Ambrolauri district on Sunday, destroying 70% of the country's harvest of the Khvanchkara grape variety, from which a popular semi-sweet red wine is made. The hail storm continued for 40 minutes.

ODD -
A rare natural phenomenon was seen in the skies above Bedford, England last Tuesday - an upside-down rainbow that lasted 20 minutes. All the colours of the rainbow – only in reverse order. They also saw an orb to the left of the sun. The phenomenon apparently occurs mostly at this time of year in warm weather, when moisture rises and meets particularly cold air in the atmosphere and forms ice crystals. "Apparently it requires perfect weather conditions and light, and with it being around 8:20am the sun was low in the sky."

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1997 - a 5.7 and a 6.0 quake struck Central Italy destroying 80,000 homes.

Disease - updated Mondays

Sunday,September 25, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
5.1 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.0 ETHIOPIA
5.1 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 4.8, 4.6, 4.4, 4.3, 4.1)
5.7 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.7 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.5 (plus 4.8) KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 CASPIAN SEA
5.6 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.3 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
5.1 ETHIOPIA (plus 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 4.7)
5.1 VERACRUZ, MEXICO

VOLCANO -
Mt. St. Helens volcano, after snapping back to life with a series of earthquakes that started last September, has been churning out a dump-truck load of lava every second. The new dome inside the crater is growing up to 16 feet a day, shoving aside a 700-foot-thick glacier as if it were papier-mâché. And there's no end in sight, say U.S. Geological Survey scientists. "There's no reason to think it couldn't go on for another year, or for decades." By analyzing the million small earthquakes that have rattled the volcano over the past year, scientists are beginning to construct a picture of the magma chamber 2.5 miles below the surface where the lava originates. Chemical analysis of the new dome suggests it takes about a week for molten rock to travel from the chamber to the surface. The magma itself is coming primarily from a pool that's been around since the volcano's spectacular eruption in 1980 and the series of smaller lava flows that followed. That's good news, because it means the likelihood of another massive explosion is slight. But a group of experts who examined the new lava rocks this summer found a bit of fresh magma mixed in, which may indicate the eruption is starting to tap into a deeper reservoir.

TROPICAL STORMS -
2 in NW Pacific -
Typhoon DAMREY was 238 nmi SSW of Hong Kong. ( If the storm does not change direction,
it will move through China, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand’s upper northern and upper
northeastern regions on Tuesday and Wednesday.)
Typhoon SAOLA was 157 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.(Warnings have been issued for thunderstorms, violent winds and high waves to areas along the Pacific coast of Japan.)

3 in NE Pacific -
Tropical depression JOVA was 191 nmi NNE of Kahului, HI. (just about dissipated)
Hurricane KENNETH was 1080 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI. (this one may
become a problem for Hawaii next weekend)
Tropical storm NORMA was 340 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (expected to weaken)

1 in the Atlantic -
Tropical depression RITA was 288 nmi NNW of New Orleans, LA, moving through the Mississippi Valley continuing the severe weather and flood threat.

Links to Rita photos, webcams, news feed.
Category 3 Hurricane Rita slammed into Texas and Louisiana early Saturday, smashing windows, sparking fires and knocking power out to more than one million customers, but largely sparing vulnerable Houston, already reeling New Orleans and the region's vital oil refining industry.
Floodwaters reached the roofs of some houses in New Orleans but the battered city escaped another major catastrophe as most levees held up against Hurricane Rita's fury. About 15 percent of the city is flooded.

The U.S. Geological Survey alerted state and federal agencies to the increased potential for landslides on September 24-28 in the Ozark-Ouachita mountainous regions of Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri due to anticipated heavy rainfall from Hurricane Rita. They forecast up to 7.6 inches of rainfall within the 24 hour period stretching from September 25 to September 26 (Sunday through Monday), through the mountainous parts of the Ozarks. From September 24-29 (Sunday to Thursday) a total of 21.8 inches of rain are forecasted.

We've never had two category-four storms make landfall in the United States in the same year. That record stills stands, because Katrina was a category four but Rita made landfall as a three. But still, its very unusual to have two severe storms like this, especially so close together, threatening the Gulf Coast.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
India's western state of Gujarat was on flood alert after two days of lashing monsoon rains that killed at least 15 people. The rains were beginning to ease there, flooding, however, continued to be of concern as rains were still pounding states bordering Gujarat. More than 95 state and national highways were cut off to traffic while some 118 irrigation dams were in danger of overflowing. Ahmedabad warned that waters had been released from the Dharoi dam into the Sabarmati river which passes through the city. Floods earlier in the week caused havoc in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, killing at least 74 people and displacing around 150,000.

Strange winds are blowing in southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. Which is to say, generally pleasant winds with nothing more serious than a few gusts, during the past summer's rare thunderstorms, marking the FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS WITH NOT A SINGLE TORNADO in the 38-county forecast area covered by the National Weather Service office in Valley, Nebraska. Last year the area was hit by 30 tornadoes. The lack of twisters is because of the weather patterns the area has seen. Normally the patterns that make tornadoes are large air troughs coming from the southwest that help pull moist air from the south and create the storms. This year those troughs came from the northwest with cooler temperatures and didn't create the needed wind shear. The weather pattern changed late in the summer, and what's happening now might have created tornadoes had it come when the upper atmosphere was cooler. Tornadoes have been known to strike in this area in every month except January and February. This year's active hurricane season is easier to explain and can be pinpointed to warmer ocean waters that usually don't reach the temperatures needed to generate the tropical storms until later in the season. If there's a connection between the increased number of hurricanes and the lack of tornadoes, it's not real obvious at this point.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1966 – Two typhoons hit Japan, leaving more than 300 people dead and missing.
In 1968 - a 6.0 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala Border Region.
In 1974 – Scientists warned that continued use of aerosol sprays will cause ozone depletion.
In 2003 - an 8.3 quake struck the Hokkaido, Japan Region. It was the largest quake in 2003.


Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.
Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.
Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.
Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays
Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays
Disease - updated Mondays

Saturday,September 24, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
mb5.3 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
mb5.1 (plus 4.9, 4.8) ETHIOPIA
mb5.1 VERACRUZ, MEXICO

Largest quakes yesterday -
mb4.8 CHILE-ARGENTINA BORDER REGION
mb5.8 CARIBBEAN SEA
mb5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION
mb5.1 (plus 4.9, 4.8, 4.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.0) NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
A magnitude-3.6 earthquake shook an area north of Los Angeles on Friday, an aftershock to a magnitude-4.7 quake a day earlier. A swarm of temblors Thursday in the San Joaquin Valley about 70 miles northwest of Los Angeles began with a magnitude-3.4 jolt. The quakes occurred near the White Wolf fault. The last time that fault caused a major earthquake was in 1952 when an estimated magnitude-7.5 temblor killed 12 people.
A small 4.0 earthquake has rattled windows and shaken crockery in Western Australia's wheatbelt region. Three aftershocks - registering up to 3.5 on the Richter scale - were also felt by locals. "The initial earthquake probably would have shaken crockery on shelves and rattled windows." The wheatbelt region experienced a lot of earthquake activity, although scientist were unsure why. A series of 20,000 earthquakes was recorded near the town of Burakin, 20km east of Kalannie, over an 18-month period in 2001-02.

VOLCANO -
Mount Shiveluch, a volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's Far East, has started erupting. (this link was not working last night, hopefully it will today).

Mount St. Helens sported a steam plume on the one-year anniversary of its renewed activity. A lava dome is still growing in the crater of the volcano. A year ago small quakes signaled that magma was moving again in the mountain. It reached the surface in October with steam bursts and ash plumes. The new lava dome is now more than three-quarters of the volume of the dome that grew between 1980 and 1986.

TROPICAL STORMS -
2 in NW Pacific -
Tropical storm DAMREY was 171 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
Typhoon SAOLA was 369 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

3 in NE Pacific -
Tropical depression JOVA was 385 nmi ENE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm KENNETH was 1168 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.(still hanging around)
Tropical storm NORMA was 411 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

2 in Atlantic -
Tropical depression PHILIPPE was 180 nmi S of Hamilton, Bermuda (basically dissipated).
Category 3 Hurricane RITA was 68 nmi SE of Beaumont, TX .
Since Rita is expected to slow down during the next few days, rainfall totals of 10-15 inches are expected over eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Maximum rainfall totals in excess of 25 inches could occur over localized areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible today over far eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and Mississippi.
Maps for Hurricane Rita - future path, evacuation routes, coastline maps, satellite images, Houston storm surge map, elevation map, damage studies, etc.
Hurricane Rita has the potential to flood an area almost twice the size of New Orleans when it reaches shore, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage to the Houston metropolitan area and plunging yet another major Gulf Coast metropolis into disarray, according to a study released last year.
Twenty-four elderly residents of a Houston nursing home died when oxygen cylinders exploded aboard a bus ferrying them away from Hurricane Rita.
At least three buildings have caught fire in the historic Strand District of Galveston, Texas.
Floodwaters breached another side of a levee protecting New Orleans, dumping more water into the city still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina.

For the first time since 1961, multiple Category 5 storms have been documented. Thanks to the recent arrival of Hurricane Rita, it is safe to say that this storm season will be dubbed the worst season ever to date.
The next tropical cyclone, named Stan, is gathering over the Atlantic. If Tammy, Vince and Wilma follow, then the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta etc) will be used to name any storm with winds exceeding 63 km (39 miles) per hour. In the Pacific region, where they are known as typhoons, storms are often fiercer and cover a much larger area than an Atlantic hurricane. There are some 30 per season, which runs throughout the second half of the year. Typhoon Saola, the 17th this year in the Pacific, is bearing down on Japan and could approach the Tokyo region at the weekend. Typhoon Damrey, the 18th, swept away from the northern Philippines on Friday after killing at least 16 people across the main island of Luzon. It headed for southern China and Hong Kong with high wind speeds. Cyclones over the Atlantic were even more frequent in the first half of the century, but then declined between the 1970s and mid-1990s. "It was during the low hurricane frequency in the 1970s and 1980s that so many people were lulled into moving into hurricane-prone areas, believing they were safe." It now costs an estimated $1 million dollars to evacuate a single mile of shoreline, or an average $150 million-$400 million per hurricane event to implement evacuation plans.

The remnants of the weather system that brought a cyclone to Andhra Pradesh coast is going to bring wet weather to the entire North West India in the next two days. Another system from the Pacific called Damrey is moving towards the South China Sea. Presently, it is 370 nautical miles from Hong Kong, and is expected to reach Bay of Bengal in the next few days in the shape of a low-pressure area. This might be the last monsoon system for mainland India. The overall monsoon figure is now 98% of the average which had been forecast before the start of the season. The reservoirs in North West India are already full.
The heavy rains in Maharashtra are disrupting life in Andhra Pradesh which is struggling to get back to normalcy.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
In Trinidad and Tobago, heavy rains, strong winds and lightning caused major damage to about 50 houses in less than an hour. Survivors told tales of terror, rescue, and panic, some running through driving rain with babies and children as homes collapsed behind them. Some told of running away from falling trees or holding onto heavy furniture for dear life as their houses were picked up off their foundations and then dropped back to earth. Scores of homeless survivors slept in hammocks and under trees all night.

Powerful thunderstorms raked southeastern Michigan on Thursday evening, flooding streets and freeways, knocking out power to about 47,000 customers and forcing the delay or cancellation of flights at Detroit Metropolitan Airport. The storms brought heavy rains in some areas, ranging from about a half-inch at Detroit Metro to 1.69 inches at White Lake to 3.62 inches in Flint. The rain covered some low areas of the freeways with several inches of water, leading to some flooded out cars. Winds gusted up to 55 mph, downing power lines and some trees. (Tropical storm Max moisture again.)

The storm Wednesday in Colorado made Wednesday the fifth-wettest September day and tied for the 13TH-WETTEST OF ANY DAY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in 1893 in Grand Junction. The storm wreaked havoc across a swath of eastern Utah and western Colorado, beginning after 3 p.m. when it dropped a foot of hail on Interstate 70. Several vehicles slid off the interstate or were stuck in the ice. The Weather Service received reports of 65-mph wind gusts and tallied a top wind speed of 38 mph near the airport, but forecasters suspect that figure was low because a portion of their roof blew off the building. Those who were flooded or without power can blame Hurricane Max, a storm that originated in the Pacific Ocean and whose remnants got caught in an air flow over the West (and eventually the north-central U.S.)

Crews worked for a second day to restore electricity to more than 66,000 Xcel Energy customers left without power after violent storms in Minnesota. Lack of electricity meant no school Friday for thousands of students who also had Thursday off following thunderstorms and two confirmed tornadoes in the Twin Cities region. (Max again.)

ODD -
An Idaho weatherman has been in newspapers across the country where he was quoted in an Associated Press story as saying the Yakuza Mafia used a Russian-made electromagnetic generator to cause Hurricane Katrina in a bid to avenge the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima. It costs him hundreds of dollars each month to run his Web site, weatherwars.info, but he said that's a price he's willing to pay. "The Soviets boasted of their geoengineering capabilities; these impressive accomplishments must be taken at face value simply because we are observing weather events that simply have never occurred before, never! The evidence of these weapons at work found within the clouds overhead is simply unmistakable. These patterns and odd geometric shapes seen in our skies, each and every day, are clear and present evidence that our weather has been stolen from us, only to be used by those whose designs for humanity are rarely in alignment with that of the common man... There's a chess game going on in the sky. It affects each and every one of us. It is the one common thread that binds us all together." Although the theories espoused by Stevens - scalar weapons, global dimming - are definitely on the scientific fringe today, there are thousands of Web sites that mention such phenomena. Interestingly, the TV station's general manager said, "of all the TV weather people, he continues to be the most accurate." He has since left his TV job, reportedly at his own request.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1910 - a quake struck Coconino National Forest, near Flagstaff, Arizona. Fifty-two shocks were felt by a construction crew between September 10 and 24, 1910. The strongest shock was so violent that the construction crew temporarily abandoned the work site as boulders rolled down the mountain into their camp.
In 1994 – Officials stopped trucks and handed out antibiotics to those fleeing a deadly plague outbreak in western India in an effort to keep the disease from spreading to major cities.

Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Saturdays.

Friday,September 23, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
First 3 within 20 minutes of each other:
mb5.0 QINGHAI, CHINA
mb5.1 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
mb4.7 KAZAKHSTAN-XINJIANG BORDER
mb5.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION

Largest quakes yesterday -
mb5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
mb5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
mb5.3 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
mb5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
mb5.0 (plus 4.6, 4.6, 4.9, 4.8) ETHIOPIA
mb5.3 TONGA ISLANDS

Maps for Hurricane Rita - future path, evacuation routes, coastline maps, satellite images, HOuston storm surge map, elevation map, damage studies, etc.

TROPICAL STORMS -
2 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical Storm Saola, whichis forecast to strengthen into a typhoon today, is approaching Iwo Jima on a path that will take it to southern Japan, where 20 people died when Typhoon Nabi passed through earlier this month. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to typhoon strength by 3 p.m. and Saola may reach the Japanese island of Shikoku by Sept. 25. By then, winds are forecast to be about 184 kph. Saola is the 18th storm of the Pacific typhoon season.

Tropical storm DAMREY was 267 nmi ESE of Hong Kong - at least eight people were killed and more than 11,000 others were displaced as the tropical storm pummelled the Philippines. Damrey was causing havoc early Thursday in 11 northern provinces where at least 3,250 people have been evacuated and several bridges were rendered impassable due to high water levels.

4 in the NE Pacific (satellite image) -
Tropical storm JOVA was 471 nmi E of Honolulu, HI.
Tropical storm KENNETH was 1274 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI.
Tropical depression MAX was 708 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical depression 14-E was about 400miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving west-northwest.

2 in the Atlantic (satellite image) -
Tropical storm PHILIPPE was 352 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane RITA was 228 nmi S of New Orleans, LA. Rita, the ninth hurricane and 17th named storm of the six- month Atlantic hurricane season, marks the first time in 10 years that Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, named in alphabetical order, have reached the letter ``R.''
Of the 17 Category 4 and Category 5 storms that have struck the United States since 1900, three of them, all Category 4 storms, have hit the Greater Houston area - unnamed storms in 1900 and 1915 and Carla in 1961. "Worst-case scenarios" modelled for a major hurricane hitting the Houston area concluded that a large Category 4 or Category 5 would cause as much as $40 billion to $50 billion in damage. That's approximately the city of Houston's entire budget for the next 15 years. With sustained winds between 131 mph and 155 mph, the power of a Category 4 storm exceeds that of most building codes. Engineers and forecasters say the most unpredictable element of a storm comes after landfall, when it either dumps rain and floods creeks and bayous or moves quickly enough that relatively little rain falls. Because a large hurricane's storm surge likely would block the flow of bayou waters into Galveston Bay, any significant rainfall could back up into inland streets and homes quickly.
After Hurricane Rita makes landfall, it may stall out and dump unprecedented amounts of rain well inland, forecasters now say. The potential for the storm to stall is the No. 2 concern, after the more immediate threat of coastal devastation. Rita could dump up to 25 inches of rain on some inland locations. Major flooding could result. Dallas is likely to be west of the worst of it. "After landfall, steering currents are expected to weaken and the cyclone could meander for a couple of days in the vicinity of northeastern Texas."

In India, hundreds of houses in the low-lying areas on the Nunna State highway were marooned on Wednesday, leaving twenty thousand families displaced, following the huge deluge of flood water streaming into the Praksam barrage and overflowing of the Budemeru rivulet.

SEVERE STORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
Floods continued to torment Romania and Bulgaria yesterday as the latest heavy rainfall submerged more than 1,000 homes and forced evacuation and emergency measures. Hundreds in both countries had to be brought to safety while around 30 towns and villages were without electricity. One man drowned and another person is still missing. Romania and Bulgaria have been hit by several waves of severe flooding this year. More than 80 people have been killed and tens of thousands of homes, hundreds of kilometres of roads and railway tracks and tens of thousands of hectares of arable land submerged.
AT least six people died in floods which hit southeastern Romania overnight, damaging hundreds of homes and disrupting traffic on the Black Sea shore towards Bulgaria.

The thunderstorms that pounded western Colorado on Wednesday night swept Grand Junction into the record books for rainfall. The city broke a 43-YEAR-OLD RECORD Wednesday when 1.21 inches of rain fell. The previous record for the date was 0.79 inches in 1962. In a matter of a few hours, the storm accounted for 133 percent of Grand Junction’s average rainfall in September and 13 percent of the city’s average rainfall for the entire year. Grand Junction receives an average of 8.99 inches of precipitation a year.

Heavy downpours dropped almost 2 inches of rain on Pocatello, Idaho Wednesday. The storm was part of an upper level system that pulled moisture up through the desert southwest (Max). "It appears that some of this moisture, may have been from east Pacific tropical systems. It is our monsoon season." Wednesday afternoon, annual precipitation totals were 1.36 inches above normal since Oct. 1 of last year.

HEAT -
In Shreveport, Louisiana the lack of breezes has done some strange things with the heat. Wednesday saw a record high temperature of 103 not once, but three times. "The old record was 99 degrees, set back in 1937. And by noon, it was broken." Occasional winds knocked the mercury back down to 102 degrees and 101 degrees occasionally. But about 2:30 p.m. and just before 4:40 p.m., 103 degrees registered again, perhaps setting a record for records in one day here. If there's any silver lining around the hot cloud, it's low humidity of only 23%.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
The summer of 2005 was THE 5TH RAINIEST EVER IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA, topped off with hurricane-triggered tornadoes Aug. 30. But the first three weeks of September have been dry as a bone. If the rain-free pattern continues through next week, Gainesville could have its driest September ever, with a rain total lower than the 0.13 inches recorded for the month in 1978. Both the wet summer and the dry September were random phenomena. "Back in April, there was no way for anyone to predict the summer would be so wet.We are in a neutral climate pattern now, neither a La Nina nor an El Nino. That increases the probability of extreme cold outbreaks in winter but does not have a strong influence on summer weather." Georgia sat under a high-pressure system for most of the summer. "It continually pumped moisture from the Atlantic into the Southeast. That same high pressure has protected us from (direct) hurricanes. It pushed Katrina toward the Gulf Coast instead of Georgia." This September, the area seems prematurely to have entered a fall-like weather pattern similar to October, which traditionally is one of the driest months of the year.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1899 - a 7.0 quake struck Cape Yakataga, Alaska.
In 1992 – France's deadliest storm in 34 years killed at least 32 people.
In 1998 – Hurricane Georges reached Cuba and threatened the Florida Keys after
making a shambles of much of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Winter Forecasts / Cold Weather - updated Fridays.

Thursday, September 22, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
mb5.0 ( and 4.7) ETHIOPIA
mb5.3 TONGA ISLANDS

Largest quakes yesterday -
4.8, 4.7, 4.6, 4.4 quakes in ETHIOPIA
M 5.4 SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA
mb6.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

An earthquake of about five degree magnitude may rock Koyna in Maharashtra in India"over the next few weeks," seismologists warned on Wednesday. They are monitoring the seismic activity in the region and shall be able to make an exact forecast just "one to two days before the event." In what is perhaps the first time, seismologists at the National Geophysical Research Institute here have given the exact place and likely date of an earthquake to take place in the country.

The island of Sao Miguel in the Azores was hit by earthquakes on Tuesday at 12:10pm Bermuda time, 9:10am Azores time. The event knocked down walls and closed schools. A live volcano close to the island is believed to be the source of the activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
2 in the Atlantic -
Tropical storm PHILIPPE was 510 nmi ENE of St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands. This system will probably weaken and could even dissipate. However some models predict that the system could restrengthen as a typical tropical cyclone. There is also the possibility of a more hybrid-type of strenghtening if the system continues to interact with an upper cyclone. Its initial motion is extremely uncertain, but appears to be headed north-northwest.
Hurricane RITA was 208 nmi N of Cancun, Mexico. Rita is a POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE and she continues to strengthen. Rita is the THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE EVER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. Heavy rains (8-12 inches on average) are forecast to begin to affect the western and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and into Friday.

3 in the NE Pacific -
Hurricane JOVA was 615 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii. (Her long awaited weakening appears to have begun. She is expected to pass well east of Hawaii.)
Tropical storm KENNETH was 1428 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawai, (should weaken over the next 3 days.)
Tropical storm MAX was 647 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico (mostly dissipated).

2 in the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm DAMREY was 185 nmi NNW of Baguio City, Philippines>
Typhoon SAOLA was 579 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Wendesday,September 21, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
mb6.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
Largest quakes yesterday -
mb5.9 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
mb5.4 TONGA ISLANDS
mb5.3 ETHIOPIA (also 4.7)
mb5.3 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
mb5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
mb5.0 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
mb5.2 NEW IRELAND
mb5.0 NEW IRELAND

VOLCANO -
Seismic activity on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula is threatening the local population and air traffic in the area, local experts said Monday. Seismologists said Kamchatka's northernmost active volcano, Mount Shiveluch, could threaten nearby villages and towns with ash emissions, which could also disrupt air routes. They do not expect any earthquakes measuring above seven on the Richter scale in the next week. The last strong earthquake, which was magnitude five, occurred in the south of Kamchatka on September 9. Since August, all regional rescue services have been put on high alert.

TROPICAL STORMS -
3 In the NE Pacific -
Hurricane JOVA was 733 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI, weakening and
expected to pass about 350 miles east of the main Hawaiian Islands. "If it moves
north of the islands, the air over the islands becomes warm and unstable
and very humid, and that can cause thunderstorms during the daytime
and that could cause flash flooding. So, that's the main threat we see at
the moment, but again, you have to stay tuned because it may not take that track."
Tropical storm KENNETH was 1346 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, weakening.
Hurricane MAX was 550 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, weakening. Thunder,
lightning, hail and brief bursts of heavy rain kept emergency crews busy
Monday night and Tuesday morning in San Diego, California. The
unusual weather was a result of Tropical Storm Max. Dozens of down-strikes were
reported throughout the county. ( photos ) Thunderstorms were expected to
continue through Tuesday. The thunderstorms are unusual for this time of
year, but not unheard of. "It's a fairly unusual pattern. It's pretty unique
with all the electrical activity."

Hawaii farmers are watching the collection of distant hurricanes to the east of
the state, knowing that even if none should make landfall here they will disrupt
normal rainfall patterns. The unusual weather started last week and continued
over the weekend, with stronger than usual trade winds and more rain than is
customary now. Flooding of low-lying areas occurred during the week as the
storm progressed over the islands. Hilo International Airport recorded over
6 inches of rain in a 24-hour period ending at 2 p.m. last Thursday. Very damp
conditions were expected to result in increased banana disease incidences.

2 In the NW Pacific -
Tropical storm DAMREY was 180 nmi NE of Baguio City, Philippines. Floodwaters
drowned two people in Oas and Rapu-Rapu towns as typhoon Labuyo (Damrey)
battered the Philippines with rains and gusts of wind. Other towns were also
heavily hit by the storm. Residents living near the foot of Mayon volcano were
also alerted for possible flashfloods and emission of volcanic debris and deposits
as a result of heavy rainfall.
Tropical storm SAOLA was 493 nmi NNE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

2 In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm PHILIPPE was 389 nmi NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados.(not threatening landfall)
Hurricane RITA was 73 nmi NW of Havana, Cuba and 84 nmi WSW of Key West,
Florida. Rita is expected to become a category three hurricane this morning and reach category four strength by tonight. Strengthening into a category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility.
Category two Hurricane Rita smacked central and western Cuba yesterday, including Havana and Varadero, with intense wind and rain, and prompting the evacuation of 150,000 people. The storm will keep up its strength and will reach category three in a few hours as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and could even reach category four.
Rita pounded the fragile Florida Keys islands yesterday as it headed toward the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico on a track that could take it close to devastated New Orleans. People have been urged to evacuate western Louisiana. South Florida was spared a direct hit as the center of the storm remained offshore between Cuba and the Keys as it headed into the Gulf of Mexico. Rita had her origins in a tropical depression that formed near midnight Saturday, when its center was about 790 miles from Key West.

Many of this year's hurricanes have been forming closer to the U.S. coastline than usual, giving residents and emergency managers less time to prepare for them. There is a bit of good news, though: some of the storms have less time to strengthen before slamming into Florida. Instead of most hurricanes marching across the Atlantic for more than a week before threatening land, many are popping up "right off our doorstep." And conditions normally get more favorable for development off Florida in October, meaning additional storms could be on their way. Of the 17 tropical storms and hurricanes so far this season, only about a third formed in the far eastern Atlantic. Last year, about two-thirds of the 15 tropical storms and hurricanes developed that far east. Hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia and Rita and Tropical Storm Franklin formed just off Florida or the Bahamas. Katrina and Rita were the quickest to start affecting land significantly. If Katrina had another 12 or so hours in the ocean before hitting Florida, it could have been much stronger.

Six fishermen are missing and around 12,000 Bangladeshi villagers have been forced to flee their homes after rough weather hit the Bay of Bengal and tidal waves of up to 1.3m swamped some coastal villages. Nearly 10,000 people took refuge in cyclone shelters near their homes when a levee was breached in a low-lying area of the southern Sandwip island on Monday.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
In Bulgaria, a dam wall near the village of Zlati Voivoda has burst down after the torrential rain last night. The whole village is under water. The Municipality of Sliven is organizing a rescue operation for restoring the dam wall. The ground floors, the cellars in the villages of Skobelevo, Bozadzhii and the town of Kermen have also been flooded.

Jinan, capital city of east China's Shandong Province, was drenched with a record-breaking rainfall which had continued since Sunday. It was the BIGGEST RAINFALL IN AUTUMN IN THE PAST 54 YEARS. The unremitting rain, with a precipitation of more than 170 mm,set a new record since the city established its weather records in1951. The observatory said it was very rare to see a rainfall exceeding 100mm in the autumn in Jinan. The only exception occurred in the autumn of 1964, when the precipitation reached 102.3 mm. Experts attributed the heavy rainfall to the joint effects by subtropical high air pressures and currents of warm air from the southwest Pacific. The heaviest rainfall that ever struck Jinan occurred in 1994's summer with a precipitation of 188 mm and this one is the SECOND LARGEST ONE IN THE CITY'S WEATHER RECORD.

A line of storms that struck the Peoria, Illinois area twice Monday tore off part of the roof off a Morton shopping center, damaged tree limbs, dropped hail and knocked power out in several areas. Golf-ball-sized hail, about 1 3/4 inches, pelted Canton for about 20 minutes.

A team in Germany has developed a massive new radar system which allows the scientists to see storms forming literally out of thin air. Thunderstorms and tornadoes happen when warm, moist air gets trapped beneath a layer of cooler air - like a lid on a pressure cooker. So if this layer ruptures, it's like lifting the lid and warm, wet air rushes up into the cooler atmosphere above. Instantly water vapor condenses as thunder clouds and heavy rain falls directly beneath. A very large radar allows them to see more than the average weather radar that sees rain. Indeed, their radar sees clear air features, including the temperature and humidity gradients that reveal the presence of a lid, and can see air rising before it even produces a cloud.

COLD -
Cold weather has killed 30 people in isolated, wind-swept Mongolia where temperatures plummeted from a warm 23 degrees Celsius on Friday to below zero. Most of the victims in the capital, Ulan Bator, were found over the weekend on the streets and at bus stops, and alcohol abuse may be a factor. After a sunny and relatively warm first weeks of autumn, temperatures dropped from 23 C (73 Fahrenheit) to minus 10 C (14 F) in some parts of the country, followed by snow storms. In Ulan Bator, temperatures dropped to minus 6 C (21 F). High winds in the southern Gobi desert blew away dozens of gers, or round, white, felt tents, and damaged buildings. "There have been no reports of so many accidental deaths for at least five years."

In New Zealand , snow lay on Mt Pirongia, the Kaimai Range and Mt Te Aroha yesterday as the increasingly bizarre spring weather continued. Raglan residents endured another worrying night with king tides, strong winds and run-off from the hills pushing up harbour levels to more than 3m above normal. Homes were flooded yesterday. King tides happen once or twice a year, coinciding with a full moon. The region was also hit by a cold snap which saw Hamilton wake to a 4 degC temperature. It will get colder with 1 degC expected.
Frost in the coming days might be a problem for farmers and orchardists. "The stage is blossom set in the trees - a bit early this year. The cherry trees and some apple trees are getting into bud so they're vulnerable."

CLIMATE CHANGE ELSEWHERE IN OUR SOLAR SYSTEM -
New images of Mars suggest the red planet's surface is more active than previously thought. Deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near the planet's south pole have shrunk for three summers in a row. These changes suggest climate change is in progress. "To see new gullies and other changes in Mars surface features on a time span of a few years presents us with a more active, dynamic planet than many suspected." The newly released images also show boulder tracks at another site, which were not there two years ago.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1938 – A hurricane killed more than 700 people in New England (US) and on Long Island.
In 1985 – Mexico counted at least 2000 dead from an earthquake that devastated four states.
In 1993 - a 6.0 quake struck Oregon.
In 1997 – A volcanic avalanche buried Montserrat's airport and flowed into the Atlantic Ocean 5.5km away.
In 1999 – A major earthquake struck Taiwan, killing at least 2321 people and injuring 8712. The quake measured 7.6 on the Richter scale.
In 2004 – Floodwaters receded and rescue workers reached homes buried in mud, but Tropical Storm Jeanne had killed more than 700 Haitians and left a quarter million homeless.

Crop Failures, Food Shortages, Fish Die-Off - updated Wednesdays

Tuesday,September 20, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
mb5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
Largest quakes yesterday -
mb5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
M 5.2 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
mb5.0 NORTHEASTERN CHINA

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the NE Pacific -
Hurricane JOVA was 911 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Hurricane KENNETH was 1303 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, weakening.
Tropical depression LIDIA was 553 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico,
basically absorbed into Max.
Tropical storm MAX was 522 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It appears
that Max has reached its maximum intensity since sea surface temperatures
are beginning to cool and the system's deep convection is gradually decreasing.

Hurricane Jova continued on its northwesterly course toward the Hawaiian islands and is still expected to weaken when it reaches cooler waters about 400 miles east of the Big Island on Thursday. Hurricane Kenneth will still be in the eastern Pacific by the end of the week, by which time forecasters expect it to have weakened to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Max is about 640 miles south-southwest of Baja California. It is too far out from the islands to determine whether it will enter the Central Pacific. It is not unusual for so many storms to form in the Pacific at once during hurricane season. Jova, the Central Pacific's first hurricane of the year, is right on time. September is an active month for the Pacific. Weather service forecasters predicted the Pacific would get two to three hurricanes by November, when this year's season ends.

In the Atlantic -
Hurricane PHILIPPE was 333 nmi NE of Fort de France, Martinique.
Tropical storm RITA was 120 nmi SSE of Nassau, Bahamas. Rita appears
likely to intensify to category 3. Her ultimate landfall
is still uncertain, since it is not clear if the ridge over the SE U.S. will
migrate far enough eastward to curve Rita northward. Several models forecast
a straight westward track into southern Texas, while others forecast
a northward bend toward the Texas/Louisiana border region. If the storm
should land west of New Orleans, the city would find itself on the so-called
"dirty side" of the hurricane, where winds are the most powerful.

Florida scientists and engineers studying extreme weather patterns this summer say that they are the result of the rare convergence of climatic and weather phenomena. “We are experiencing an uncommon event. South Florida climate varies in cycles, some that form patterns with long return frequencies. This certainly is an event of a magnitude that NORMALLY OCCURS ONCE EVERY 50 TO 100 YEARS." A monster hurricane like Katrina and the fact that Florida was hit by four large hurricanes last summer are but the most extreme manifestations of the unusual weather patterns we are experiencing, the scientists say. Other evidence includes a rare warm phase in the North Atlantic, RECORD RAINFALL, historic RECORD WATER LEVELS IN LAKES, predictions of much higher than normal rainfall, extremely warm ocean currents, and unusually high predictions of hurricane activity. The June-August summer season was the 10TH WARMEST ON RECORD for the lower 48 states, while precipitation was above average. Global temperatures were SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD for the boreal summer, which runs from June 1 through August 31. Twelve named tropical systems formed in the Atlantic by the end of August, including Hurricane Katrina, which was AMONG THE STRONGEST HURRICANES EVER TO STRIKE THE UNITED STATES.

In India, at least three people, including a child, were killed when a house collapsed, and about 40 fishermen reported missing as cyclone-fed rain and tidal waves hit the coastal areas of Digha and Sunderbans in West Bengal since Sunday. Several thousand people were rendered homeless in the coastal areas of Digha, Egra in east Midnapore district and large areas of the Sunderbans following the tidal waves. Official sources said that embankments in several areas were breached under the impact of the waves.
The rains were likely to continue today in Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rains have inundated some 70 villages, damaging crops and disrupting traffic and electricity. The water level in Godavari River was also rising alarmingly due to the rain. Kalingapatnam in Srikakulam received a RECORD RAINFALL of 35 cm by Monday afternoon. Other places in the region received 10 to 25 cm rainfall. Five-to-nine metres high tidal waves slammed the Orissa shore Saturday and Sunday. They left a trail of destruction within a distance of 500 meters to one km from the coast. The tidal water badly affected 100,000 people living near the sea in four districts. In Kendrapada, shrimp farms were destroyed and agricultural land submerged.

In Malaysia, about 70 water village residents were made homeless when strong winds and high waves lashed the outer fringes of Kg Tanjung Aru Saturday, damaging several jetties which linked their homes built on stilts. "It is very unusual that this could happen in this month. Normally in September the weather is okay." The bad weather, a consequence of the Tropical Storm Vincente hitting the Philippines, was expected to continue at least until Monday.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAIN -
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service Administration in Mactan, Cebu yesterday urged residents in low-lying areas to take measures against possible soil erosion and flash floods that may take place due to a continuous downpour. The continuous rain could cause soil to soften and thus create a landslide. The down-pour could also cause rivers to overflow and trigger flashfloods. Aside from the low-pressure area spotted yesterday in Central Visayas, the heavy downpour was also caused by the inter-tropical convergence zone. Cebuanos who trooped to the shore of the South Reclamation Area suddenly panicked at the sight of a twister that hit the seawater few meters off the shoreline. Those who swam in the sea were seen rushing for cover as the twister was heading towards the shore. The twister, however, suddenly changed its course and proceeded to Cordova before disappearing. Sources said the twister was so strong that they could feel the air even if they were located far from it. The twister was also carrying water and became visible for few minutes before it vanished, causing no damage.

LIGHTNING STRIKE -
On September 9 in Montana lighting struck during a sudden storm at a high school golf tournament, seriously injuring a 14-year-old Anaconda boy. He was directly hit and three others were sent to the hospital. The Assistant Chief of Police who performed CPR on the boy said he experienced a burnt taste in his mouth and the top of the boy's head was warm. "He had been wearing a cap of some kind, and the lightning actually tore it in half." The boy sustained burns on his left shoulder and along his back, and the strike "obliterated" the golf glove he was wearing. The freak storm came up from the east at about 12:45 p.m. and then abruptly doubled back over the course. There was no time to take shelter. "Right after that kid got hit another one hit about a hundred yards away about five seconds later. You could feel static, and I looked over to where he was and you could see smoke."

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1899 - a 6.9 quake struck Turkey's Menderes Valley.
In 1994 – A pneumonic plague epidemic broke out in Surat, an industrial city in western India. It caused widespread panic, but only about 60 people died and the disease was soon brought under control.
In 1994 – Ships rescued thousands of villagers as two volcanoes erupted in Papua New Guinea.
In 1999 - a 7.7 quake struck Taiwan. At least 2,297 people killed, 8,700 injured, 600,000 people left homeless and about 82,000 housing units damaged by the earthquake and larger aftershocks.

Drought, Heat, Water Shortages, Wildfires - updated Tuesdays

Monday,September 19, 2005 -

Largest quakes this morning -
mb5.0 NORTHEASTERN CHINA

Largest quakes yesterday -
mb5.8 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
mb5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA
mb5.0 BANDA SEA
mb5.3 SOUTH OF PANAMA
mb5.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA

Jordanian schools held earthquake drills Sunday amid strong rumors of an expected powerful quake that left many families outside their homes overnight. The rumors began to surface two weeks ago, based on a prophesy by an astrologer that 'a devastating earthquake would hit Jordan.' Officials say the region was witnessing 'more stability than in 2004' when a tremor measuring 5.5 on the Richter Scale struck the kingdom and neighboring countries, causing no damage.

Bangladesh was rocked by three earthquakes yesterday (5.6, 3.3, 4.4), causing panic among the people, but no damage was reported.

TROPICAL STORMS -
4 in the NE Pacific Ocean -
Hurricane JOVA was 1021 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Hurricane KENNETH was 1278 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression LIDIA was 553 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico (She has
basically been absorbed by Max).
Tropical storm MAX was 536 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

1 in the NW Pacific / Indian Ocean -
Tropical depression VICENTE was 147 nmi SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam.

3 in the Atlantic Ocean -
Tropical storm OPHELIA was 47 nmi SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Hurricane PHILIPPE was 296 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm RITA was 262 nmi ESE of Nassau, Bahamas.(Hurricane warning for the Florida Keys.) Rita will be moving over the SE and central Bahamas Sunday night and Monday and may reach category 1 hurricane status by tonight.

2005 may be the worst season on record for hurricanes. The six-month season ends on November 30, and late hurricanes are typically more violent than ones earlier in the season.

Hurricane Katrina's relief supremo urged New Orleans to hold back on plans to let 200,000 evacuees return home in the next 10 days, warning the storm-wrecked city remained unsafe and 40% of it is still underwater. There is no reliable power or health care. "There is no potable water. The standing water has high concentrations of E. coli and the levees have been weakened to the point where if you bring a significant amount of people into New Orleans you need to have an evacuation plan and how you're going to do that? ...before moving into a larger general population re-entry to the city, those plans need to be locked down."
The death toll from the hurricane has hit 883.

Three storms are lined up in the Eastern Pacific, between Hawaii and Mexico. They are still at least a thousand miles from Hawai'i and may never make landfall, but that didn't stop some residents yesterday from stocking up on supplies and getting their hurricane kits together.

In any given year, the odds of a hurricane hitting Hawaii are 1 in 15. For a category 3 or 4 storm, which means sustained winds ranging from 110 mph to 155 mph, the odds fall to 1 in 75. The state hasn't had one since Iniki crippled Kaua'i in 1992. Iniki was a category 4 storm until just hours before making landfall, becoming a category 3 with sustained winds of 130 mph. Despite glowing reviews about Hawai'i's ability to prepare for hurricanes and other disasters, serious gaps plague the system, raising questions about how well the state can weather a direct hit from a major storm. Half of O'ahu's 24 vital communications towers badly need repairs, making them more vulnerable in a catastrophic storm. A critical shortage of emergency shelters exists in each county, raising the prospect that some people might be turned away if facilities were packed to capacity. The state's aging siren warning system has coverage gaps, and roughly 10 percent of the sirens typically don't work when the system is tested each month. "I think there would be mass chaos in just trying to sort out where people would go." Officials stress that the best way to prepare for "the big one" is for people to ready their own households, gathering the appropriate emergency supplies and making other arrangements so their families can weather the storm.

Orissa, India, Sunday evening issued a cyclone warning as a deep depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal has intensified. Under its influence, widespread rainfall in most places of the state is likely. A torrential downpour, triggered by the system, is slated to continue for at least the next 36 hours. A storm surge of 1 metre is likely over and above normal tides in the coastal areas. Winds with a speed of 70 to 80 km an hour are likely along and off the Orissa coast.
The coastal pockets of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Balasore and Bhadrak had already started witnessing tidal waves surging into homes and agriculture fields since Sunday morning. The 6-km long Kendrapara-Jambu road was breached by the waves, while the 16 km Rajnagara-Gopalpur saline embankment was cut off at five places. More than 600 villagers of Pentha and Prasannapur in Kendrapara’s Rajnagar block were shifted to the nearest cyclone shelter at Khandamara after tidal waves entered the villages. A population of about 30,000 were affected by the tidal waves in Kendrapara district alone. Eighteen villages of Kujang, Tirtol and Ersama blocks in Jagatsinghpur and six from Rajnagar and Mahakalpada in Kendrapara faced saline inundation. In Balasore, more than 3,000 hectare of agricultural land in 30 villages of Baliapal and Remuna blocks were inundated, while more than 50 houses were washed away. The deep depression is likely to move in a west north westerly direction and intensify further.
900 fishermen caught in India's cyclone are safe at Jakhau, 400 are feared missing.

Fresh storm warnings have been issued for the top of the North Island, New Zealand. Severe gales gusting up to 120 kilometres an hour could buffet Northland, Auckland, Coromandel the Bay of Plenty and East Cape areas. There have already been several weather-related incidents. Trees have fallen across roadways across the entire region, and roads have also been blocked by mudslides near Rotorua. Forecasters are also warning of abnormally high tides.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS -
A violent thunderstorm accompanied by hail, high winds and lightning knocked out power to more than 31,000 customers of Connecticut Light & Power Saturday night. "It surprised all of us. We usually track storms here, but it wasn't anywhere on the radar."
The violent storm also struck Springfield, Massachusetts featuring torrential downpours and numerous lightning strikes, sparking at least two house fires, widespread street flooding and nearly 2,200 power outages. An estimated 1.35 inches of rain fell on the city between 4:50 p.m. and 5:50 p.m. Wind speeds topped out at 18 miles per hour. The storm front was unrelated to Tropical Storm Ophelia, which missed hitting New England's coastline yesterday after dumping 12 to 15 inches of rain on North Carolina earlier this week.

A thunderstorm killed seven mourners and injured 17 others in northern Nigeria's Yobe State as incessant downpours continued to sweep west and central Africa. Three peopled were also killed in Douala, the economic capital of Nigeria's western neighbour, Cameroon. Several other people were injured by landslides and flooding in the same area.

At least six people died while two infants are still missing after heavy rains hit the Philippines overnight, bringing floods to different parts of the capital on Saturday. Three people were buried by a landslide in northern mountainous Banaue province on Friday while two others were drowned.

LIGHTNING STRIKES -
A gold chain and crucifix melted around his neck when a lightning bolt struck a man in the head while he and his brother were riding dirt bikes in Gunnison County, Colorado last week. The bolt melted part of his helmet, fractured his skull and left burn scars on his chest and left arm. The lightning strike caused him to do a back flip off his motorbike and twist in the air before he landed on the ground, unable to move. Doctors told him if he hadn't had his helmet on, he would have died. Even with the helmet, it took 30 stitches to close a wound in his head caused by the freak lighting strike. It started sprinkling and the bolt came without warning. Doctors still don't know the extent of the damage, due to scar tissue and unhealed injuries. He still can't hear in one ear. (photo)

FREAK WIND GUST -
An Australian woman was injured in a skydiving accident when a freak gust sent her crashing to the ground. The weather reportedly was perfect. The wind speed was about 10 to 15 knots and you're allowed to jump when the wind is up to 25 knots.

Previous Disasters - On this day -
In 1979 - a 5.8 quake struck Central Italy, followed by more than 300 aftershocks.
In 1985 – the Mexico City area was struck by the first (8.0) of two devastating quakes that killed thousands of people, perhaps as many as 35,000. The quake generated a tsunami.

Disease - updated Mondays

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