November & December 2007 Featured Disasters

Sunday, December 30, 2007 -

Have a safe and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
[No update on the 31st.]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Treat the other man's faith gently; it is all he has to believe with.
His mind was created for his own thoughts, not yours or mine.
Henry S. Haskins

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Quakes so far today -
5.0 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 TONGA
5.0 BANDA SEA

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/29/07 -
5.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
12/28/07 -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 TONGA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.5 VANUATU
5.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

JAPAN - Scientists question earthquake zone theory - The tectonic zone that has been linked to some major earthquakes may not be consistent with the distribution of such earthquakes over the past 100 years, according to a study by a Tokyo University research team. Major quakes of recent years, such as the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake and the Great Hanshin Earthquake, struck within the zone, widely believed to stretch from Niigata to Kobe, but research indicates that a completely different distribution should be considered. The team used data on the epicenters of 52 inland earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.8 or more that have struck since 1596. The seismic zone stretched from Niigata and ran past Kobe as far as southern Kyushu. They superimposed the position of this longer zone on the Niigata-Kobe belt and statistically calculated the degree to which they were consistent. They found that more than half of 20 quakes that occurred between 1896 and 2007 struck outside the Niigata-Kobe zone. But almost all of 20 quakes that struck between 1729 and 1914 were inside the Niigata-Kobe zone. The team concluded the subduction of seismic plates has caused the build up of "invisible" seismic strain, which causes major inland earthquakes, prompting a shift in the distribution of earthquakes from the commonly acknowledged Niigata-Kobe zone.

TSUNAMI / ROUGH & FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
HAWAII - Blustery winds and rough seas canceled Hawaii Superferry trips between Maui and Oahu from Wednesday through Saturday. The National Weather Service issued small-craft and high-surf advisories for all islands. A small-craft advisory was in effect until Friday morning with predicted seas greater than 10 feet high. The strong winds were coming from a high-pressure area to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. "This has been an UNUSUALLY long period of active trade winds in our area." The blustery winds were likely to remain well into next week. The winds have been particularly prevalent in exposed windward areas and in Maalaea Bay where an UNUSUAL gale warning was posted. Winds are expected to continue blowing between 30 to 39 mph, with some gusts of up to 50 mph. Those winds were expected to remain through Saturday, calming down somewhat Sunday and Monday.

AUSTRALIA - Madness as huge waves pound coast - people watching the treacherous surf from the beach were knocked off their feet by FREAK waves, a boat full of lifesavers was flipped over, and surfers were swept out to sea as the Coast was hammered by huge surf yesterday. All beaches on the Gold Coast were closed as winds of up to 90km/h whipped up dangerous waves that caught plenty off guard. Two people were stranded in waist-deep water after a freak wave pounded them against eroded dunes at The Spit about 2pm yesterday. They were forced to cling to poles under the sand-pumping jetty to avoid being swept out to sea. A huge crowd of people, including small children, also risked their lives trying to get a closer look at Mother Nature's fury by venturing to the end of rock wall at The Spit. Huge waves hit the wall as dozens fled to safer ground. Two surfers were swept north from Tallebudgera to Burleigh Heads after being caught in the strong sweep. A surf boat crew from the Greenmount surf club flipped their craft about 6am and had to be rescued by a jet-ski patrol. The weather bureau warned the treacherous conditions will not ease until Thursday. A severe weather warning remained for the southeast because of an intense low pressure system sitting 460km off Fraser Island. Only the bravest surfers dared to take on the swell, said to be the BIGGEST OF 2007. Waves of up to 13m were recorded off Coolangatta. The wave buoy off Narrowneck recorded 9m swells and shark nets were torn loose. Surf lifesavers along the Gold Coast still had to brave the conditions and warned several people, including two busloads of tourists, from entering the water near North Kirra. Showers and increasingly gusty winds keeping most people away from the water. The massive waves flooded the Vikings Surf Life Saving Club car park. Earlier, members from the club sandbagged the area. Lifesavers carried out two rescues at The Pass yesterday and later helped more than 200 people off The Pass lookout after churning water cut them off from dry land. About 20 children were taken off the lookout by air tubes for safety measures. While the low-pressure system off the Coast could not technically be classed as a tropical cyclone, it packed a similar punch. "I haven't seen anything quite of this magnitude this year. They've been good solid 10-foot (3m) waves today, (some) up to four metres. The problem is the swell's really big but not many people can surf it - only experienced tow riders. It's quite tragic really. Many people just have to sit and look at it. On days like today jet-skis really are the only option."

NEW YORK - Suffolk County - representatives to document the “cumulative effect damage” being felt by area beaches from a series of tropical storms, nor’easters and squalls. Officials are being asked to recognize the cumulative impact of storms dating back to November upon beaches that were already severely damaged by a nor’easter in April, and possibly add the recent damage on to the April totals. Since the April 15th storm, beaches have been hit by remnants of Tropical Storm Noel in early November, a nor’easter December 15-16, and a heavy rain, wind and surf event on the evening of December 23.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone MELANIE was 554 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

ATLANTIC - Another out-of-season storm possible - Low pressure over the open Atlantic about 950 miles south of the Azores has begun to acquire some tropical characteristics as of Saturday evening. Thunderstorms began to develop around this area of low pressure on Friday afternoon, and have become more widespread over the last 24 hours. If this trend continues, a subtropical or tropical storm could form from this feature in the next day or two. The low will remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days, trapped beneath an upper-level low in the area. After that, the storm will drift slowly westward. The low currently poses no threat to any land area.
Will it become the last named storm of 2007 or the first named storm of 2008 — or will it fizzle into nothing more than a meteorological curiosity? The disturbance in the distant Atlantic could be developing into a RARE, post-Christmas named storm. That depends on when — or if — it develops sustained winds of at least 39 mph. If that happens before 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, when the new year arrives, it will be called Pablo, the next name on the 2007 list. If it happens after that, it will be called Arthur, the first name on the 2008 list.

Cyclone Melanie - The weather bureau is warning communities in north Western Australia that Cyclone Melanie could develop into a category three cyclone in the next 24 hours. Severe weather warnings are in place for coastal areas as Melanie, currently classed as a category two cyclone, hovers around 400 kilometres off the coast between Exmouth and Whim Creek. While the storm may drift pass the coast, it is large enough for the weather bureau to keep a close watch. "There is still a significant chance of it getting close to the coast and putting some gales in coastal areas and maybe a bit of heavy rain as well." (satellite photo)
The cyclone warning was cancelled for category two tropical storm Melanie as it moved away from the West Australian Pilbara coast.

AUSTRALIA - An intense low pressure system is causing havoc along Queensland's southern coast, however Fraser Island, directly in the path of the storm, has been warned the worst is yet to come. The weather bureau today continued to issue a severe weather warning for residents south of Rockhampton, including the Capricorn and Bunker groups, Fraser Island and the Sunshine and Gold coasts. The low, located about 450km off Fraser Island's Sandy Cape, today whipped up damaging winds and dangerous surf, causing coastal inundation. Waves between four and eight-metres had been recorded on the Sunshine and Gold coasts, with the biggest wave, nine-metres, recorded in Brisbane. "It's expected to move to the north-west in the next few days and conditions should ease slightly, but we are still expecting high, dangerous surf and fairly damaging wind gusts." Beaches on both the Gold and Sunshine coasts have been closed because of the dangerous conditions. "I don't think people should necessarily be walking on the sand, let alone getting in the water." Brisbane City Council urged residents to stay away from large trees in the city's parklands amid concerns those weakened by the prolonged drought will be toppled by strong winds. Monsoonal rainfall has also fallen in the state's far north, with up to 220mm drenching the Daintree.
There are reports of people yesterday being swept into deep water while wading in the shallows. A low pressure system with a central pressure of 995 hPa is currently located about 460 kilometres east of Sandy Cape on Fraser Island. The low has remained very slow moving today but is expected to move slowly to the northwest overnight and during Monday. Very large waves are being generated by this system and will continue to affect coastal areas between Heron Island and the NSW border.
Forecasters are also watching the Gulf of Carpentaria for the possibility of a cyclone there next Tuesday, Cyclone Helen.
The Bureau of Meteorology is observing a monsoonal trough in northern Australia which brought with it heavy rain - 220mm in 24 hours at Cape Tribulation alone. "We're watching that monsoon, which is currently over the top end of the NT, because there's a moderate chance that by Tuesday it might develop into a tropical cyclone and swing into the Gulf of Carpentaria." The monsoon trough, which has a slow-moving low pressure system at 997hPa centred near Jabiru, may cause destructive winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and large waves. It is causing damaging wind gusts to the north as air rushes south to fill the void. Residents of north Arnhem Land were warned last night to expect wind gusts of up to 90km/h, large waves and abnormally high tides from Cape Don to Nhulunbuy.
AUSTRALIA - Five east coast lows occurred during June 2007, which was RARE but not unprecedented, with other notable years including 1974 and 1950. During June this year, the NSW Regional Office issued over 750 warnings including Severe Weather Warnings, Flood Warnings and Marine Wind Warnings. In terms of impacts on the NSW mainland, the first event (June 8-9) was the most serious. With a central pressure of 990 hPa, beach erosion at many Sydney beaches was caused by huge swells. Cremorne Wharf collapsed into Sydney Harbour due to large waves. The maximum wave height recorded at Sydney Waverider Buoy was 14.1m. This was the highest recorded since records began in 1992. Offshore, the third event (June 19-20) was the most intense, with a minimum central pressure of approximately 982 hPa. Fortunately the full impact of this low was not felt over land areas.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
WISCONSIN had some pretty wicked weather this past year, ranging from blizzards to record flooding, winter snow storms, severe thunderstorms, high winds, large hail and droughts. "This was a very interesting year for Wisconsin in the weather department and it seems like every year gets more UNUSUAL than the previous year and you wonder how the heck we can top the previous year. So, but looking back at 2007 all I can says is "Wow, what a year!" Record rains caused five deaths, numerous mud slides, road closures, and flooded homes and businesses. 22 inches in one month is a lot when you compare it to the average of 32-35 inches for the entire year. Total damage to property and crops from the rain was about $112.5 million.

TEXAS - A little over a year ago, ranchers had to search as far away as Kansas for hay to feed their cattle. Many ranchers were forced to sell off cattle or ship them out-of-state. But this year, the fortunes have turned, thanks to this year’s wet weather that brought rain to almost every corner of the state. It was a year of recovery for Texas agriculture as farmers saw RECORD YIELDS for corn, cotton, wheat, sorghum, soybeans and hay. “I don’t know if it’s ever happened before but it’s a PRETTY RARE occurrence. It’s pretty UNUSUAL to have the entire state wetter than normal at the same time.” Cattle raisers also replenished herds, often finding livestock from the drought-stricken southeastern U.S, and benefited from stable beef prices. But the banner year was tempered by the rain’s tapering off during the last four months of the year and an uncertain future. “We didn’t get the fall rains so the pond levels are really dropping.”

INDONESIA - Torrential downpours overnight Friday sparked fears of further landslides on Saturday in Indonesia's Java island, where rescuers were still struggling to recover bodies of recent landslide victims. Nearly 100 people were killed or missing after landslides buried houses under thick mud across the Central Java province this week, while thousands were forced to move out of homes submerged by floods triggered by days of heavy rain. "Heavy rain like this could trigger fresh landslides in the same spots. The first ones have scarred the hillsides, making them more prone to landslides."

SRI LANKA - Due to torrential rain resulting from the north-East monsoon, some districts of the eastern, northern and north-central parts of Sri Lanka have been experiencinga flood situation since December 20th. Floods have caused immense damage to affected areas, interrupting all economic and social activities. It is also reported that there are tremendous damages to infrastructure facilities in the areas. Around 56,000 families consisting of 210,533 members have been affected. Most of the affected people have settled in 86 temporary camps. The victims are suffering untold hardships, as their settlements were destroyed by landslide or washed out by flood water.

PHILIPPINES - Flash floods that occurred late Thursday night washed out nine houses and affected 280 families in three villages along the national highway. Spillover water from Kulasihan River in Lantapan, an upland town, flowed into barangays Aglayan, Bangcud and Cabangahan. "The flash floods were possibly caused by tornado." They are still investigating the late night calamity and have officially labeled it as "flash floods." Damage to crops and properties were estimated to have reached around P10 million in the three barangays.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ILLINOIS - December snow piling up - 13.7 inches so far - more than double 30-year average of 6.6 inches for December. Winter's third significant storm Friday blanketed much of the Chicago region, clogging traffic, canceling flights and leaving 2 to 6 inches of snow in its wake. The storm marked the 14th snowfall in December, making the month ONE OF CHICAGO'S SNOWIEST EVER. "Unfortunately, the encore is flurries and bitter cold next week...It's just that this [snow] has been earlier. Normally this is what it's like in January."

MICHIGAN - Five to 7 inches of snow was reported in the region following the storm that blanketed the Great Lakes region with several inches of snow. Milwaukee's total at Mitchell International was 6.3 inches, TOPPING THE RECORD for the date of 5.3 inches set in 1968.



EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

SOUTH KOREA - the weather service said Saturday it issued a yellow dust advisory, its FIRST EVER ISSUED IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER, for the central part of the country. The advisory was issued for Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi Province and other nearby areas as well as five islands near the western sea border with North Korea at 2 p.m. Most of the country will come under the influence of the hazardous dust from late at night. The last time a yellow dust storm hit South Korea in December was in 2001. No advisory was issued because the country did not start the system until the following year. South Korea faces the seasonal phenomenon every year from February through April, as sand and other dust from the Gobi Desert in Mongolia are carried over to the country by easterly winds.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, December 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Faithless is he that says farewell when the road darkens.
J. R. R. Tolkien

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/27/07 -
5.4 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 CENTRAL TURKEY
5.4 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - residents along the Queensland coast are bracing for a fierce and volatile weather system this weekend with the bureau warning of gale-force winds, dangerous surf and abnormally high tides. The Bureau of Meteorology has advised coastal communities from Bowen in north Queensland to the Gold Coast to prepare for the intense low-pressure system. Severe thunderstorms hit NSW yesterday afternoon, with heavy rains and flash flooding in the Hunter and Central Tablelands, Illawarra and western parts of Sydney. Three people were rescued yesterday after they abandoned their 10m yacht in heavy seas north of Fraser Island. Huge waves whipped up by the system will coincide with king tides and are likely to cause the biggest tides this year. The bureau is also closely watching a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria that has the potential to develop into a cyclone early next week. Meanwhile, South Australian fire fighters are on standby over the coming days with the bureau forecasting extreme heatwave conditions throughout the state.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical cyclone watch has been issued for western Australia's Pilbara coast. The Bureau of Meteorology estimated category one tropical cyclone Melanie was 610km north-west of Broome and moving at 8km/h towards the coast at 4pm (WDT). A cyclone watch has been issued for coastal areas between Exmouth and Broome. "Tropical cyclone Melanie is not expected to cause gales on the coast overnight tonight or during Saturday. However, gales may develop on the coast late Sunday."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NEW YORK - Weather patterns took twists and turns in 2007, beginning with flowers blooming in January and including a freak June storm that killed four people in Colchester. Golfers were hitting area courses in January's 60-degree weather. A high of 64.4 degrees was recorded Jan. 2, which broke the 1890 mark of 58 degrees for the date. January averaged 4.8 degrees above normal. The normal mean temperature for January is 21.3 degrees. But by the end of January, temperatures plunged. A record-setting blizzard pushed through the area Feb. 14. More than 25 inches of snow fell in Emmons. That broke the Oneonta-area record for Valentine's Day of 20 inches, set in 1914. The average Binghamton snowfall in February is 15.9 inches, but the 2007 February total was 29.1 inches. Temperatures varied in the area but remained below average in February. The cold weather continued into March. Oneonta set a record for the lowest high temperature for the March 6, with the thermometer only reaching 5.1 degrees. The previous record was 8 degrees. Summer began tragically in the town of Colchester where four people died June 19 after an 8-foot-high wall of water rushed through two valleys. The storm that stalled along a ridge between Holiday Brook and Cat Hollow roads in the Delaware County town washed away four homes and destroyed roads and bridges. Up to 8 inches of rain fell in two hours, washing out roads and homes and slamming trees into bridges. The month of July turned out to be cooler and wetter than normal, continuing a trend that stretched through the first seven months of the year. The area's weather during September ranged from wet and warm to near normal. From June through September, the weather was fairly stable. One of the most remarkable things about September was the lack of a frost. As the year drew to an end, back-to-back snowstorms turned the area into a winter wonderland, but rain on Dec. 23 washed snow away, making for a mostly green Christmas.

MISSOURI - Extreme temperatures and sporadic rainfall, usually in large amounts, seemed to be the trend for 2007, but overall, the climate wasn’t too out of the ordinary for Southeast Missouri, "but as far as the times that things happened, that was UNUSUAL.” February was really cold, 6.1 degrees below normal, with the normal being 38.5 degrees. The warmest month relative to the normal temperature was March, and that was 56.4 degrees — or 8.7 degrees above the normal temperature of 47.7. April was normal except for three or four UNUSUALLY cold days with an April freeze. “That Easter freeze injured the wheat (and the local fruit crop), and a large percentage of corn had to replanted." August had six 100-degree days, and the hottest day of year was Aug. 16 at 102 degrees. “That’s PRETTY UNUSUAL.” The wettest day of the year was on Oct. 18 when 4.4 inches of rainfall was measured. The wettest month was October which had a total of 7.70 inches rain. “Normally the average is 2.91 inches for October, which is the lowest normal month of the year, and actually this year it was the highest for the year." Meanwhile, forecasters say the region will still be in a drought cycle in 2008.

IOWA - Could a year with record-breaking rainfall events in Iowa segue into a period of drought? It’s possible, based on the way weather conditions are shaping up from coast to coast. “A number of current trends are following what happened in 1987 leading into the drought of 1988, and that worries me a little bit.” Drought risk tends to follow a 19-cycle, and the risk of serious drought is doubled in the phase of the cycle which is now occurring. Many serious, widespread droughts start in the eastern United States and work their way west, although they don’t always reach western Iowa. In 2007, many areas of the southeastern United States were plagued with drought, just as the Carolinas were in 1987 before a major drought hit in 1988. While this drought did not decimate the crops of the western Corn Belt, it reduced yields by 30 percent across much of the central and eastern portions of the region. Currently, a residual moisture deficiency persists in the southeastern United States, including South Carolina - more than 90% of all major Corn Belt droughts are preceded by drought in South Carolina. Droughts can also spread from the western United States and Colorado and work their way to Iowa. “Both types of droughts can happen at once. Just think of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s.” All this comes at a time when Iowa has received the most heavy-rain days in the history of the state’s recorded weather. In 2007, there were eight days in which 4 inches or more of rain fell at multiple sites in the state, beating the previous record of six days in 1979. While it’s too early to determine why this is happening, it does highlight the volatile nature of current weather patterns. Due to the cyclical nature of the world’s climate, Iowa may also be heading into a period of colder winters. “The longest time between serious droughts is 23 years. If we don’t have a serious drought by 2011, we’ll break an 800-year-old record.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, December 27, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Happiness is having a large, loving, caring, close-knit family, in another city.
George Burns

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/26/07 -
5.3 CENTRAL TURKEY
5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.5 BANDA SEA
5.3 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 KYRGYZSTAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
12/25/07 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
5.0 FIJI REGION
12/24/07 -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA

IRAN - The ancient Iranian city of Bam was hit by a mild earthquake almost four years to the day after a catastrophic quake there killed tens of thousands. The suburbs of Bam in southeastern Iran were rocked by the 4.2 magnitude quake at around 8:00 pm (1630 GMT) on Tuesday evening. The quake that hit Bam in the early hours of December 26, 2003 was of 6.6 magnitude and killed 31,000 people, about a quarter of the city's population, and destroyed the city's ancient mud-built citadel.

TAIWAN - A magnitude 5.1 earthquake jolted Taichung City, central Taiwan, in the early hours of Tuesday, December 25. The earthquake was found to have been caused by a stress adjustment subsequent to the massive 7.3-magnitude earthquake that shook the central county of Nantou on Sept. 21, 1999, killing some 2,400 people. The Tuesday earthquake occurred at 2: 28 a.m. The epicenter was 22.9 km underground. The quake had an intensity of 5.1 in Changhua, and was followed by an aftershock with a magnitude of 3.7, which shook Nantou at 4:38 a.m. [Taiwan had two large quakes last year on December 26, 2006 - 7.1 & 7.0 (8 minutes apart) which killed several people and triggered a minor tsunami.]

AUSTRALIA - A large earthquake measuring at least six on the Richter scale appears to be overdue in Australia, after another relatively quiet year on the seismic front.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -
AUSTRALIA - A low pressure system off Queensland's central coast is forecast to intensify overnight, whipping up large seas and gale-force winds. The system is expected to be around 500 kilometres off the coast of Yeppoon by tomorrow. The combined winds and waves will cause ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES along the southern and central coasts. "The south-east coastal area will start to feel the effects, a gradual increase in the winds through the early part of the weekend, and at this stage I think the worst part of the coast should be up around the Sunshine Coast up toward the Fraser Island area. Nonetheless the Gold Coast area will still experience the strong winds." Fraser Island, the Cooloola coast and northern parts of the Sunshine Coast are likely to be the first affected by the large waves. Conditions will be dangerous and unstable over the weekend. "Over the next few days, the further south you come towards the New South Wales border, things are going to get increasingly worse sort of leading to the weekend and over the weekend."

INDONESIA - The government has renewed calls for ships and boats not to set sail in the next few days following warnings of extreme weather and high waves from the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. The no-sail warnings were valid throughout this week and could be renewed. The ministry issued its first warnings two weeks ago. In bad-weather warnings issued on Tuesday, they said three- to five-meter-high waves could hit several parts of Indonesia because of seasonal monsoon winds expected to last until the end of this year. "Ships and boats should not set sail in the next two days because they might be swept away by high tides," a meteorology and geophysics expert said on Wednesday. He said the Java Sea would be hit by waves as high as three and five meters, while the Makassar Strait and Bali Sea might see waves with heights between 0.5 and 3.5 meters. Waters in the southern part of Sumatra and in the south of Nusa Tenggara could be hit by up to four-meter-high waves, while the waters to the south of East Java might see 0.5 to 2.5-meter waves. The agency said the predicted waves would likely be caused by the West Monsoon wind, a seasonal wind that occurs when atmospheric pressure is high across the Asian continent and low across Australia. Mariners should also stay alert for severely low tides, which might hamper ships from harboring and loading. Waters in Surabaya's Tanjung Perak harbor receded to minus-170 centimeters on Wednesday and were predicted to rise only by 10 centimeters today. On Dec. 23, a tugboat pulling a coal barge was overturned near Bali as it sailed from South Kalimantan to Cilacap, Central Java. In September, the BMG also warned vessels against sailing in the Indian Ocean, including waters around the Mentawai islands and the coastal areas of West Sumatra, due to extreme weather. Passenger ferries plying the Mentawai-Padang route continue to operate despite the warning, but no accidents have been reported. One of the most noted sea tragedies was the sinking of the Senopati Nusantara ferry in the Java Sea on Dec. 30, 2006, after it was reportedly hit by dangerous waves. This accident claimed the lives of more than 300 passengers.
Rescue workers combed waters off western Indonesia after a small boat sank in stormy seas, leaving at least two passengers dead and seven others missing. "The captain could not control the boat because of the high waves, and it eventually capsized in the Malacca Strait." The motorized, wooden ship was traveling between two coastal villages in Riau province on Monday when the accident occurred - almost all the passengers on board were women and children. Strong winds and 3-meter (10-foot) waves forced rescuers to briefly suspend search operations Tuesday.

BRITAIN - Twelve rescued as high winds and huge waves hit annual pier swim - Brighton Swimming Club abandoned the traditional swim after 8ft waves and 30mph winds battered the pier. Hundreds of people ignored warnings of THE MOST DANG EROUS WEATHER TO HIT THE EVENT FOR DECADES. “We did 12 rescues altogether. One man in his sixties was bashed down by a wave completely and went right under, but me and a friend managed to scoop him up. The wave then squashed us both and we lost him . . . he popped up again beside me. He was very upset – he’d had a close shave.” The seas also tore bathing costumes, with one man forced to scurry out naked.

CALIFORNIA - The National Weather Service placed the Central Coast under a high surf advisory until 3 pm on the 25th. Breakers from 10 to 12 feet were expected to continue throughout most of the afternoon. Another round of high swell was likely to have moved into the area late Wednesday.

INDIA - Three years after the tsunami destroyed their homes, over one thousand families still live in temporary shelters in the Nagapattinam district of Tamil Nadu.
More than 40,000 people in India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands made homeless by the December 26, 2004 Asian tsunami are still living in temporary shelters. Close to 10,000 families lost their homes. Irrespective of the family size, each family was given a one-room shelter measuring about 150 to 200 sq feet. These shelters are made up of tin sheets. They get monthly rations, but no cash handouts. The tin shelters are too hot during summer and leak during winter. Water and sanitary conditions are very bad. Farmers also suffered heavy losses, with some losing their land forever. "Over 8,000 hectares of land was affected by the tsunami, out of which 4,200 hectares have been permanently submerged... There is no land to give. We are encouraging farmers to learn new skills."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

AUSTRALIA - Wild weather is expected on Queensland's coast over the next week amid warnings of a potential cyclone developing in the Coral Sea. A coastal wind warning has already been issued between Cardwell in north Queensland and Hervey Bay in the state's southeast. However, the Bureau of Meteorology is also warning that a low developing in the coral sea could intensify into a cyclone as early as Saturday. The cyclone, if it develops, is not currently expected to reach the coast but would deliver gale force winds to central Queensland and possibly the southeast corner.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDONESIA - At least 10 people were killed in Indonesia's East Java when a bridge was swept away by swelling floodwaters today. The people were dragged away by strong currents when the bridge collapsed suddenly after floods caused by torrential rains hit the district. The accident occurred following floods and landslides in Central Java that have left scores missing.
Landslides caused by torrential rains overnight on Christmas left 75 people dead or missing in Indonesia's Central Java province. The landslides were THE WORST TO HIT THE REGION IN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY as thousands of people moved to rescue shelters after their homes were buried or washed away. The latest flood came on the third anniversary of the tsunami that left 220,000 Indonesians dead or missing. Floods rose up across Java island on Wednesday following seasonal rains and high tides. Rescue workers and police were struggling to reach the affected areas as roads were cut off by floods following the rains. 24 bodies had been recovered and another 37 people were missing following landslides in at least nine villages in Karanganyar district near the banks of the famous Bengawan Solo river. Another 14 people are missing in Wonogiri district 30km south of Karanganyar but lack of heavy equipment was slowing down rescue efforts. "The landslides took us by surprise. This is the first time in the last 25 years anything of this scale occurred here in Central Java." Thousands of villagers in areas who lost their homes to floods or landslides have moved into temporary shelters in buildings and tents set up by local emergency response teams. Metro TV showed residents wading through neck-high water. (photo)
Scores of people drowned in mud and surging rivers after days of intense rain caused floods and landslides across the Indonesian islands of Java and Bali exactly three years after the Indian Ocean tsunami hit the archipelago on December 26, 2004. Thousands of houses were inundated, from Java and Sumatra to Sulawesi island, farther east. Residents struggled to salvage valued possessions from the rising waters, some using tyres to float televisions and refrigerators to higher ground. Flooding has become a very common problem for many of the Indonesian communities, which tend to be concentrated along lowlying coasts and valleys beneath steep mountains. Especially jolting, from the point of view of Indonesian business, was an incident last month when the road to Jakarta international airport was cut off by a surging high tide. (photos)

BOLIVIA - Heavy floods have killed at least eight people and left thousands homeless over the last two weeks. Since Dec. 15, five people have died in the central province of Cochabamba, two more in the southern Andean province of Potosi and another in Viacha, a town near La Paz. Over 3,600 families have been affected by the floods in the Chapare region of Cochabamba.

AUSTRALIA - The town of Coonamble was cut off by rising flood waters with the Castlereagh river at its HIGHEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS.

SRI LANKA - Flash flooding in east and central Sri Lanka has forced 175,000 people from their homes, with many seeking refuge in makeshift welfare centers in schools and temples. Heavy rains on Sunday and Monday caused a reservoir to burst its banks in the eastern district of Batticaloa, where more than 40,000 families comprising around 150,000 people were displaced. The central district of Polonnaruwa was second-worst hit, with around 6,500 people displaced, with the balance affected in the northern districts of Jaffna and Trincomalee and the central district of Matale. The inundation comes a week after 20,000 people were flooded out of their homes mainly in the eastern district of Ampara, when a depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified monsoon rains.

MOZAMBIQUE - Torrential rains in central Mozambique and in neighbouring countries were threatening further serious flooding on the Zambezi river on the 24th. Despite government warnings, after the major floods of January and February, that people should not try to live on the Zambezi flood plain, much less on islands in the river, a significant number of farmers ignored this advice. They found the temptation of living alongside their fields in the most fertile parts of the valley too strong to resist. There are at least 500 people on Resende island, and a further 100 on Nhane island. Much larger inflows from Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected later in the rainy season, in January and February. Localized flooding occurred in the northern city of Nampula on Saturday, when 128 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - On Sunday, it was snowing finally in the south of Primorye. During 24 hours from 4 to 8 mm fell in Vladivostok and its suburbs - that is almost a ten-day norm. According to the web site of the meteorology centre, the precipitation was caused by a not deep cyclone that is moving from the Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan. It touched the south coast of Primorye. This morning the cyclone has reached the east coast of Japan and common for this December, sunny weather is back to Primorye. It will be quite cold in Primorye during first part of the week, especially at night time; it will be influenced by another anticyclone that will come from the north of Khabarovsk Territory. But in the second part of the week the anticyclone's influence will come down and another cyclone from the west will come through Primorye. It will cause warming up and it may be snowing in the north of the Primorye. At the end of working week there is a possibility of a deep cyclone coming to Primorye's coast. It will cause snowfalls, blizzards, ice-slicks and storm winds on the coast.

INDIA - The city of Bangalore woke up shivering on the 26th, with temperature plummeting to 11.8 degrees Celsius — the THIRD COLDEST DECEMBER DAY IN 124 YEARS. The lowest December temperature ever was 8.9 degrees Celsius recorded in December 1883. The second lowest was in December 2000 when the temperature dipped to 11.5 degrees Celsius. "During winter, parts of south-interior Karnataka, including Bangalore, experience sudden fall in temperature particularly between December 15 and January 15." The city is susceptible to cold temperature due to the presence of clouds with moisture just a km from the ground level. "These clouds have cold breeze, particularly in the winter, during which the cold breeze and surface wind mix with each other and reduce the temperature."

NEW ZEALAND - Weather 'goes crazy' - Wellington's unpredictable weather stayed true to form, Boxing Day beginning with sunshine, only to change later to hail storms, rain and low temperatures. Parts of Upper Hutt and the Kapiti Coast were pelted with hail late in the afternoon, giving residents the chance to take part in activities not normally associated with a New Zealand Christmas. Upper Hutt residents came home to gardens covered in ice. The hail was caused by a southerly change which sometimes produced hail storms. "We've had a very early summer this year and got used to the rather warm weather." The unpredictable weather was likely to continue, with rain possible tonight and showers likely tomorrow.

AUSTRALIA - Christmas 2007 will go down in the record books as ONE OF THE MOST UNSEASONAL IN YEARS in weather terms. A south easterly change that moved in late on Christmas Eve sent temperatures plunging and brought a return to drizzling rain. And it stayed that way right through Christmas Day with the conditions disappointing those planning outdoor celebrations on the big occasion. It was the same right across the Blue Mountains with day-long fog and intermittent rain greeting visitors. In Sydney it was also unseasonally cool and overcast — far from the image of a sun bleached Santa. Yesterday, although the sun was shining, the temperatures were still well below normal for this time of the year.

CANADA - Forecasters are bracing for potentially the WORST AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN FIVE YEARS in a season that has already turned deadly. Throughout backcountry areas in the Rockies, the avalanche risk is rated as considerable at treeline and alpine elevations. Two successive avalanches on Monday killed two members of a party of four snowmobilers near 108 Mile House, in the British Columbia interior. A combination of rapid shifts in weather patterns and above-average precipitation in late fall has created weak layers of snow that easily could give way beneath heavier slabs laying on top. Significant advances in avalanche awareness have taken place in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002-03 season, including a new terrain ranking system and the creation of the Canadian Avalanche Centre to distribute up-to-date bulletins online.

UTAH - avalanche experts are calling Sunday's fatal slide at The Canyons Resort "A RARITY" THAT HAS NO PARALLEL IN RECENT UTAH MEMORY. One man was killed and a boy hospitalized. This was an inbounds avalanche. The area had been open for more than a day and control work had been done in the last 24 hours of the accident. The two were apparently skiing together. The ski patrol arrived on the scene within four minutes of the call, and they found the man four minutes later. They uncovered the boy about 25 minutes after.

COLORADO - the Denver metro area was digging out from ITS WHITEST CHRISTMAS ON RECORD. A surprise all-day storm Tuesday delivered Denver's snowiest Christmas ever, with 8 inches of new snow by late afternoon. The snowfall easily eclipsed the record - the all-time record for snowfall on Christmas in Denver previously was 1894's 6.2 inches. The foothills and southern part of the metro area were hit hardest by the storm that tracked eastward across the state. Golden reported 13.6 inches and Littleton 10.5 inches.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Perth sweltered through its HOTTEST DECEMBER DAY ON RECORD, with the mercury hitting 44.2 degrees Celsius (111.5F). It BROKE THE RECORD FOR THREE-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES in Perth, with Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day being the HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. The hot weather led to the outbreak of bushfires in the city's south, threatening houses in the suburb of Casuarina and burning 15,000 acres of bushland. Some residents were evacuated while others decided to stay and try to protect their homes. Firefighters are now readying themselves for a week of continued hot weather.

SCOTLAND - Chaotic summer weather patterns have heightened concerns that climate change could have a serious impact on Scotland's wildlife, flora and fauna, it emerged yesterday. The unpredictable weather has started to take its toll on the delicate balance of the country's natural landscape. A number of species have appeared in Scotland for the first time, while the survival of some montane plants and birds are at greater risk given a general rise in temperature. Nuthatches, which have in the past been restricted to England, bred this summer in Melrose and another property in East Lothian. "We cannot be certain that this is due to climate change but warning bells are ringing very loudly." A reduction in snow cover has been noted at the most northerly NTS properties, indicating significant temperature change, and as footpaths become exposed for longer each year it puts them at risk of accelerated erosion. Similar worries have been expressed by the National Trust which serves England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Many species emerged or bred earlier because of warm weather in the first few months of the year, while the heavy rain and low temperatures in the summer caused problems for insects, birds and bats. A male goldeneye duck was displaying in Northern Ireland in January, months earlier than usual, while bats were on the wing in late March, long before the usual time. Ladybirds, bumblebees, peacock butterflies and frogspawn all had an early start in February, and the good weather in April saw adonis blue and marsh fritillary butterflies on the wing "radically" early. And in October, basking sharks were spotted for the first time off the Farne Islands - the plankton they feed on is not normally found in the North Sea at that time of year.

GEORGIA - 2007 brought RECORD COLD, RECORD HEAT and near record drought to Georgia-Carolina. Augusta experienced one of the coldest Masters Tournaments in recent memory, with highs the first full week in April struggling to reach the 50s and record lows in the 20s. The late freeze damaged many crops and plants all across the area. 2007 will be remembered most, however, for the record heat and the extremely dry conditions, brought on by a stubborn area of high pressure over the southeastern states and a developing La Nina weather pattern. The month of March is normally one of the wettest months of the year, but this March brought only half as much rain to Augusta as it normally does. That came after a drier than normal January and February. April turned out to be a little drier than normal, but not as dry as March was. May was very dry, with less than an inch of rain falling during the month. June brought a brief respite from the developing drought. Nearly five inches of rain fell. July started off wet and cool, but quickly turned dry in the middle of the month. Four record low temperatures were set in July, including a low of 61 on July 4. In August there were 10 record highs and 15 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees. The month averaged 6.1 degrees warmer than normal and Augusta only reported 41 percent of normal rainfall. On August 10, Augusta reached 108 degrees, tying the all-time record high first set on August 21, 1983. Much of the southeast suffered through the effects of the drought and extremely hot temperatures. North Georgia was especially hit hard by the drought that left Lake Lanier at a near all-time record low level. Unusually dry weather continued through the fall months with November only bringing 15 percent of its normal rainfall. When December arrived, very little changed, at least during the first half of the month. A strong summer-like ridge of high pressure developed once again over the southeast, causing another round of record-breaking high temperatures. For five days beginning Dec. 9, highs reached the lower 80s, setting new records. The weather pattern shifted mid-month, displacing the high pressure ridge, and allowing for more frequent rain-making storm systems and more moderate temperatures. In fact, on Dec. 15 and 16, Augusta received nearly three inches of rain, setting a new daily rainfall record for the 15th. Before mid-December's rain, Augusta was on target to have the driest year on record. With more rain likely before the end of the year, 2007 will probably end up the fifth or sixth driest year on record. Most forecasts for the first part of 2008 indicate the drought will continue, and temperatures will remain warmer than normal - exactly the forecast Augusta doesn't need.

KOREA - Warm spell brings RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES to Korea - Korea has been seeing unseasonably warm days in the midst of winter, even after dongji or the winter solstice. The Korea Meteorological Administration predicted the spring-like weather will continue until Saturday when a cold snap is expected to grip the nation. The mercury soared above 10 degrees Celsius in most regions nationwide on Wednesday. The high point was recorded in Milyang, South Gyeongsang Province where the temperature was 17.5 degrees. Seoul posted a RECORD HIGH WINTER TEMPERATURE of 13.8 degrees on Wednesday, higher by 11.3 degrees than the normal average of 2.5 degrees. It was the HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR LATE DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1904. The daily average temperature in Seoul has hovered above zero for nearly two weeks since Dec. 15. Normally the temperature in Seoul at this time of year is below zero. Warms winds from the south have prevented the expansion of cold air from the north into the Korean Peninsula.

Meteorologists have chronicled strange weather years for more than a decade, but NOTHING LIKE 2007. Get used to it, scientists say. As man-made climate change continues, the world will experience more extreme weather, bursts of heat, torrential rain and prolonged drought. "We're having an increasing trend of odd years. Pretty soon, odd years are going to become the norm." The decade of 1998-2007 has been THE WARMEST DECADE ON RECORD. With temperatures 0.85 degrees Celsius above normal, January of this year was the first time since record-keeping began in 1880 that the globe's average temperature has been so far above the norm for any month of the year. As the year progressed, American weather stations broke or tied 263 all-time high temperature records. England had the warmest April in 348 years of record-keeping, shattering the record set in 1865 by more than 0.6 C. "For the first time in recorded history, the disappearance of ice across parts of the Arctic opened the Canadian Northwest Passage for about five weeks starting 11 August." The Arctic dramatically warmed in 2007, shattering records for the amount of melting ice. Sea ice melted not just to record levels, but far beyond the previous melt record. There were "devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world." And there were other oddball weather events. A tornado struck New York City in August. In the Middle East, an equally rare cyclone spun up in June, hitting Oman and Iran. Major U.S. lakes shrank; Atlanta had to worry about its drinking water supply. South Africa got its first significant snowfall in 25 years. And on Reunion Island, 640 kilometres east of Africa, nearly 394 centimetres of rain fell in three days — a world record for the most rain in 72 hours.

The United Nations sent a RECORD NUMBER OF DISASTER ASSESSMENT TEAMS TO EMERGENCIES IN THE AMERICAS in 2007, offering a potential glimpse at the future of climate change. Nine of the 14 teams dispatched this year by the U.N. went to Central and South America, the highest number in history, including the FIRST EVER TO MEXICO. Previously, the highest number of missions to the Americas was eight, after Hurricanes Mitch and Georges in 1998. This year, U.N. teams were sent to Mexico, Uruguay and Bolivia twice to deal with severe floods. Teams were also dispatched to the Dominican Republic following Tropical Storm Noel, Honduras after Hurricane Felix, Belize and Jamaica after Hurricane Dean, and Peru following an earthquake in August. The five other U.N. teams went to Madagascar, Pakistan, and Ghana in response to floods, the Solomon Islands following an earthquake and tsunami in April, and Laos to help the country's disaster preparedness efforts. 10 out of the 14 missions, or 70 percent of the total, were in response to hurricanes and floods.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Monday, December 24, 2007 -

Have a HAPPY HOLIDAY!
[There will be no updates on the 25th and 26th.
Although I'll be checking in just in case we get another big Christmas quake this year.]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A man travels the world over in search of what he needs
and returns home to find it.
George Moore

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/23/07 -
5.4 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KENYA
5.3 TANZANIA

KENYA - A series of earth tremors rocked the country Sunday afternoon causing panic among Kenyans. The Kenya Meteorological Department could not immediately tell the magnitude due to lack of a seismograph. All the tremors lasted about five seconds and were felt in different parts of the country between 4pm and 4:45pm. In Nairobi, the tremors were felt in different places, including Nation Centre, between 4 and 4.45pm with varying degrees of intensity. The tremor lasted longer in Taita-Taveta and Mombasa. In Wundanyi, nurses at Wesu hospital left the patients unattended and ran out for their lives.

NICARAGUA - On Sunday, a few hours before another anniversary of the 6.5 earthquake that devastated the city of Managua 35 years ago in 1972, scientists warned that the tragedy that killed more than 10,00 Nicaraguans could happen again. The scientists said there is a true threat to the citizens of the capital. In a timeframe of 76 years, Managua was destroyed twice because of earthquakes. The 14 faults known in Managua are active, and any of them could cause an earthquake. However, the Nejapa mega fault is the most likely to unleash a telluric tremor of great magnitude. The Nejapa Fault, which is active, is the longest and is close to three other dangerous fractures of the earth. The activity of this crack, which is 15 miles long, created other cracks and it is near the Mateare Fault, the largest of Managua, and the Tiscapa Fault, which caused the 1972 earthquake. The situation is being carefully observed, with great concern, after the Nicaraguan Institute for Territorial Studies registered 1,400 telluric movements in different spots of the country up to November. Compared to other years, there is greater calmness, but that peace worries the experts, because a build-up of energy between the tectonic plates could be occurring.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - Increased seismic activity at the Andean volcano of Tungurahua has prompted the evacuation of 1,200 Ecuadorean villagers, who venture home only to tend crops during the day. Ten villages have been evacuated to sleep in shelters "to avoid people from being near the volcano." The Tungurahua volcano was registering near-constant seismic activity after seven hours of tremors rattled windows Saturday morning, showing an intense glow in its crater and spewing a fine coat of ash. "We can't rule out at this moment that the volcano may evolve in coming weeks from the current situation to a much more explosive level."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW YORK - Syracuse received RECORD RAINFALL Sunday, breaking a mark set in 1990. The National Weather Service measured 0.77 inches of at Hancock Airport from midnight through 10 p.m. Sunday. That broke the previous record for Dec. 23 of 0.59 inches. The rain, coupled with a rapidly melting snowpack, flooded basements, stalled cars and delayed flights. It even caused the foundation of a Syracuse home to crumble. High temperatures also contributed to the melt off. The high of 52 degrees was significantly warmer than the 34-degree average high temperature for Dec. 23.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Snow storms in the central US have left at least 11 people dead and tens of thousands without electricity. The severe weather has caused hundreds of accidents, and reached as far south as Texas - where there was a 50-vehicle motorway pile-up. The storm has also felled trees and power lines and caused the cancellation of hundreds of flights. More heavy snow has been forecast as the storms move into the Great Lakes region bordering Canada. Multiple vehicle pile-ups closed major highways in the central states over the weekend. In Minnesota alone, there were more than 300 road accidents and three deaths. Three other people died in accidents in Wyoming, three in Wisconsin and one each in Texas and Kansas.

BANGLADESH - Severe cold wave disrupts normal life in Sirajganj - An UNPRECEDENTED COLD WAVE over the last few days has almost halted normal life in this district town. The severe cold wave coming from the Himalayas has made the lives of the dwellers, specially the homeless people of this small town, miserable. At least 12 people have been attacked with various cold related diseases, the intensity of cold worsens after mid-day and turns extremely unbearable in the evening. Every day, fog covers the town until 8 to 9 AM and vehicles ply in the streets with their headlights on. Although the sun appears for a while around 10 AM, it soon disappears. Last Monday morning drizzles made things even worse. Destitutes are trying to combat this bitter wave through heat generated from burning heaps of straw and old rubber tyres. On the other hand, second hand warm clothes sellers are making best use of this situation and earning handsomely by raising the prices two and even three times. Diseases like fever, cough, cold and dysentery have also increased alarmingly. Severeness of cold in this small district town situated near the Jamuna river is usually more bitter than other areas of the country, which usually deteriorates in December and January. Observers feel that this cold will worsen further during next few weeks. Cultivation of winter crops, particularly the potato is facing damage from this unnatural cold. Authoritative sources believe unless the government and the well-to-do section of the country come forward with necessary arrangements for distribution of sufficient warm clothes for the homeless people in this area, the possibility of loss of life from this bitter and severe cold may not be ignored.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Despite recent falls, Brisbane is on track for ONE OF ITS DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD. So far this year, Brisbane has received only 633mm of rain, compared to the normal annual rainfall of 1,146mm. It is the lowest annual figure since 2000, but nowhere near the lowest ever - 411mm in 1902 - during the infamous 26-year federation drought. "This is only gone on for seven years, so we still could have suppressed rainfall for a few years yet." August was the only month with above average rainfall, and while showers were becoming more frequent, they were usually light. It would take a tropical cyclone to cross the coast in a random event, or "exceptional" falls for a month, before meteorologists could confidently declare the drought broken. Weather forecasters have predicted Brisbane's coolest Christmas Day since 1999. A top of 27 degrees is expected on Tuesday, with a few light showers. The average Christmas Day temperature is 29 degrees. (27 degrees Celsius = 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
The region in 2007 received only half the average yearly rainfall recorded in the past decade. Brisbane's last year of above average rainfall was 1999, when the city received 1728mm. The past seven years have been the driest since the infamous Federation drought, which began in 1895. Dam storage levels in the southeast are still perilously low. The combined dam levels of Wivenhoe, North Pine and Somerset are at 20.01 per cent. The region's current drought was described as THE WORST ON RECORD FOR THE CATCHMENTS on the Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams.

FLORIDA - Even amid a record-breaking drought, water managers' floodgates from Fort Pierce to Boca Raton dumped roughly 250 billion gallons of coastal runoff out to sea during this year's hurricane season. Water managers say they had no choice. The region's decades-old drainage network left them no place else to put so much runoff without flooding the densely developed coast, they say. And they had no practical way to move the water to drought-shriveled Lake Okeechobee. "It breaks my heart. I get frustrated like everybody else. You know you're going to need that water." The squandered quarter-trillion gallons would be enough to fill Dolphin Stadium more than 500 times, supply Palm Beach County's water customers for more than a decade or submerge the city of Stuart about 100 feet deep. It includes rain that sloshed off roofs, streets and parking lots from June 1 to Nov. 30, into drains and canals that aim for the Intracoastal Waterway and the Atlantic. The lost runoff is also equivalent to about 2 feet of water in the shrunken lake, the region's main backup reservoir. The lake hit an all-time low in July, and water managers say it COULD PLUNGE TO LEVELS NEVER BEFORE RECORDED in the next few months. To meet the shortfall, the district is taking the UNPRECEDENTED step of limiting lawn and landscape watering to one day a week throughout almost all of its 16 counties. The limits take effect Jan. 15. "The only answer is to be able to store more water." But efforts to do that have been slow, despite a $10.9 billion Everglades restoration plan that includes proposals to capture wasted runoff. Since Jan. 1, Palm Beach International Airport has received more than 63 inches of rain - about 70 percent more than notoriously drizzly Seattle. Some rain has arrived in blinding downpours, including one day in October when almost 7 inches fell at a coastal gauge just south of West Palm Beach. When rain falls so heavily, the district's priorities shift to flood control. Its canals flow downhill, and most lack pumps that could send water inland. Most also have no direct link to the lake. The district is keeping water in its canals higher than usual. But that increases the risk of floods in a freak downpour.

"Watching my gnarled old Mediterranean [olive] tree season by season, I see the bad news fast getting worse. Our future food supply is at risk, olives and most everything else besides. Some insist that scientific ingenuity will provide. Agribusiness touts miracle seeds and new techniques. Others find comfort in broad numbers, yearly precipitation figures and mean temperatures that have yet to plummet. Yet most food we eat relies on rainfall cycles and defined seasons. The point is not how much rain falls but when. And annual temperature averages hide a new reality: the patterns of hot and cold are changing. My own farm typifies what I now see from Kalamata to California...Late each winter, the trees are cut back hard. In spring, buds cover the new wood. By fall, branches droop under the weight of green fruit. As they turn purplish black in December, the olives are pressed into oil to remember. It is December now, and my trees should be heavy with olives. But they're not. Like last year, rains fell at the wrong time, too hard or too soft. When it mattered, there was no rain at all. A warming trend with freak cold snaps confuses plant metabolism and emboldens killer pests. Last January, my trees budded, convinced it was spring. Then it froze. In June, the Dacus fly bored into the fruit, causing it to drop off the tree. Many olive growers are somewhere between disbelief and denial... The Italian government predicts the olive crop for 2007 will be about 500,000 tons, 17 percent less than last year. Truffle news is likewise calamitous, because of drought, combined with shifts in the soil. Italy's beloved tartufi bianchi, those pungent white truffles, reached a record price in October of $7,500 a kilo. Black truffle season is starting in France, and bidding is headed skyward. At the Saturday market in Draguignan [France], farmers who know each of their turnips personally see the signs in their fruit trees, wheat fields and vegetable gardens. Crops ripen too early or not at all. One grower I respect saw his cherries bloom too early and die in a cold snap. Underground streams are tapped out by mid-summer. As it has routinely since 1988, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has sounded the alarm. Fortified with a Nobel Prize and alarming new evidence, it has dropped "ifs" and "buts." Some argue that a few seasons do not define a trend. But each morning, my trees tell me the hard truths."

Christmas Day dinner on Tuesday will be the MOST EXPENSIVE EVER for millions of families in Britain. And it's all linked to our wet summer when torrential rain and flooding ruined crops across the UK, Europe and even America. The freak weather reduced yields - and upped prices - of everything from potatoes to poultry corn, chipolatas to chestnuts, and cranberry sauce to Brussels sprouts. Wine, already heavily taxed, has gone up by between 50p and Ł1.50 a bottle across the board. Organic turkeys big enough to feed eight are as much as Ł100 due to the high cost of corn feed and the bird flu outbreak. The summer floods devastated root vegetable crops. "Increased prices on festive groceries have put enormous pressure on the pockets of UK households." There are bargains to be had if people shop around for individual products - but most families simply haven't got the time to go to several supermarkets to seek out bargains. And even if they had, the soaring cost of fuel - another factor in rising food prices - would probably not make it worthwhile.

INDONESIA - The government has warned farmers of extreme weather events in regards to climate change. The government has told farmers to be more "creative" to grasp weather patterns that are predicted to become more extreme. "The toughest work for our farmers now is how to adapt to unpredictable weather changes. Long-standing traditional crop cycle systems may no longer be practicable." In the short term - over the next year, until 2009 - the adaptation effort is focused on gathering data on areas vulnerable to droughts or floods, including information on dry and wet seasons. The information is to be distributed to farmers as a guideline to help in re-mapping weather patterns, agricultural seasons and crop cycles. In the medium-term - through 2012 - the plan will see the government create and evaluate an early warning system for drought. In the long term, the government is set to analyze weather anomalies and be able to better predict planting seasons and adjust crop cycles. Just exactly what farmers should expect - of course - the government can't say. However changes in rainfall and drought, they are told, will seriously impact agriculture. In the 1990s, the ministry of agriculture reported an average harvest failure of 100,000 tons per regency across the country due to drought. The failure rate has been around 300,000 tons per regency since 2000. Farmers have repeatedly ben urged to plant crops other than rice - such as corn and soybeans - especially in the dry season, due to the water-intensive nature of rice farming. Currently, most farmers plant rice in both dry and wet seasons.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, December 23, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Family isn't about whose blood you have. It's about who you care about.
Trey Parker and Matt Stone

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/22/07 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.4 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 TONGA
5.1 TONGA
5.3 EASTER ISLAND REGION
12/21/07 -
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA
6.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.8 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Another medium intensity quake rattled the eastern part of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday at dawn, the fourth in five days. The tremor is the fifth registered in the island in 11 days and on which the Dominican authorities have yet to issue information. It occurred at 3:21 a.m. with its epicenter 129 kilometers beneath the surface, in the East region, 74 kilometers from Higüey and 89 from El Seibo. On Tuesday another quake, 3.5 degrees on the Richter scale, was felt at 3:31 a.m., whose epicenter was 119 kilometers deep, 45 kilometers from Higuey and 77 from El Seibo, close to the one Wednesday. Another one took place at 4:10 a.m. last Sunday, 28 kilometers from Monte Plata. On Friday last week an earthquake was also registered in Dominican Republic, 4.6 degrees on the Richter scale, 8 kilometers from the northern town Tamboril, 14 kilometers deep. Four days before another tremor was felt 160 kilometers in depth, 28 kilometers from Monte Plata.

ALASKA - Two significant earthquakes shook Alaska's seismically active Aleutian Islands on Thursday, but there were no immediate reports of any damages or injuries. The magnitude-5.9 and 6.1 quakes struck about one minute apart starting at 2:23 a.m. EST on Friday. Both were centered about 100 miles west of Adak in the island chain. "There were two tonight and that was VERY UNUSUAL. We're going to study this a little more closely." On Tuesday, a magnitude-7.2 quake hit the chain about 125 miles west of Adak.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MALAYSIA - The recent onset of King Tides into coastal towns is an indicator of change taking place. Given that warmer sea water also expands, melting polar caps would accentuate the swell in sea level with potential havoc on key coastal economic and financial centres. Longer, deeper and bigger floods should come as no surprise as a sister of global warming. Rising global temperatures essentially throw an originally stable water cycle into "chaos" and disequilibrium. Higher temperatures stretch and "overcrowd" even the storage capacity of rain clouds in the sky which result in more frequent and high intensity rainfalls. Such super rainfalls also greatly out-gun the absorption capacity of the soil resulting extreme amounts of water surface water staying essentially above ground. The most disastrous consequences happen when the storage capacity of solid water in the polar caps and mountain ranges collapses, discharging melted ice into the oceans. Sipadan - one of the most famous dive sites in the world, may disappear for this reason.

CALIFORNIA - Very high tides are predicted for the Southern California coast, but offshore winds and small waves will lessen the possibility of destructive tidal flooding, the National Weather Service said. High tides of as much as 7.6 feet above the mean tide were predicted each morning for four days. But waves are predicted to be less than three feet high, which by Pacific coast winter standards is practically flat. The full moon and relative position of the earth means the natural pull on the ocean is at its highest levels this week, and will culminate in a 7.6 foot high tide at 7:43 a.m. today.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

BANGLADESH - Hundreds of children, if not more, are now believed to have been orphaned by Cyclone Sidr, which devastated large parts of Bangladesh’s southwestern coast on 15 November, killing more than 3,000 people and rendering millions more homeless. “The trauma that these children suffered and the bleak future they face are nearly impossible for others to realise.” Past experience shows that children, especially girls, in disaster-hit areas are highly vulnerable to trafficking and other forms of abuse. Of the 8.5 million people affected by Cyclone Sidr, about half were children and an estimated half a million of them were under the age of five.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MISSISSIPPI - Thursday's tornado in the Heuck's Retreat community, which appeared suddenly and destroyed or damaged several homes, was reported by the National Weather Service as an EF2 with winds of more than 110 miles per hour. The tornado touched down two and one-half miles east of the Brookhaven Municipal Airport and finally broke up two miles west of the Woolworth Community, carving out a damage path of approximately nine miles in length. The survey team reported that the 110 mph winds tossed furniture and appliances more than 100 yards through the air. The strange thing about Thursday's tornado in Lincoln County was not its size, strength or duration, but its presence in the first place. "December tornadoes are UNUSUAL in Mississippi...We have two severe weather seasons - one in April and May, and the other in November. Both severe weather seasons for us this year have been rather uneventful."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TAJIKISTAN - An avalanche has killed at least 16 people in the mountains of Tajikistan, while more people remain trapped under the snow. The avalanche came after several days of heavy snowfall and hit a road that connects the capital, Dushanbe, with the city of Khudjand. The road, a key link in the mountainous country, used to be closed over the winter. But this year it stayed open following the construction of the Anzob tunnel that goes under the main snow-covered route.

U.S. - A winter storm packing heavy snow walloped the central United States, causing at least 5 deaths and dozens of injuries as multi-car pileups forced authorities to close parts of several major highways. The storm Saturday blew heavy snow from Texas to Minnesota. Much of the region was still recovering from a severe ice storm early last week that knocked out electricity for hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. At least three people in Minnesota and one person each in Texas and Kansas were killed in traffic accidents that authorities said were weather related. Strong winds could make traveling hazardous all weekend. In Texas, the one person died in a chain-reaction pileup involving more than 50 vehicles, including several tractor-trailer rigs, on Interstate 40. Eighteen people were taken to hospitals, two with life-threatening injuries. "There were cars crashing while they (firefighters) were there. They could hear them (the crashes), but they couldn't see them." Many were holiday travelers, including families with small children not dressed for the weather. Other drivers spotted them and opened Christmas presents to provide warmer clothing for the children. The tangle of twisted cars and trucks shut down the interstate for most of the day. Authorities believe the pileup was caused by blowing snow and the resulting zero visibility. In northeast Kansas, at least one person was killed in a 30-car pileup on Interstate 70, prompting authorities to close a 40-mile stretch of the highway. The pileup occurred about 30 miles west of Topeka. The fierce snowstorm caused another wreck involving 20 to 40 vehicles, including three tractor-trailer rigs, on Interstate 29 in St. Joseph in western Missouri. Police closed about 100 miles of I-29 to the Iowa state line. Wind was blowing at sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph in Oklahoma, where U.S. 412 near Mooreland in western Oklahoma was closed after up to 20 cars slid off the road or crashed. The storm also impacted flights at airports in the Midwest, as the busy pre-Christmas weekend travel was getting underway. The delays rippled across the country, affecting flights in the New York region.

MASSACHUSETTS - Was there really a fall this year? It just seemed like we cruised with no transition from summer to winter. It was an autumn of polar opposites, with most of the fall seeing above average and often downright summer-like temperatures, and the tail end experiencing temps well below normal and weather usually found in the heart of winter. The weather changed so abruptly with the two recent snowstorms and Arctic chill, many homeowners didn't finish raking leaves before the wintry conditions descended. An 11-inch snowstorm Dec. 13 came earlier and heavier than expected, gridlocking students and employees heading home from school and work. A 5.5 inch snowstorm three days later that was accompanied by sleet, freezing rain and rain made for icy conditions that persist, leading to plenty of slip and falls and vehicle crashes. With almost 17.5 inches of snow falling before winter arrived, from the two major storms and two minor ones this month, the Attleboro area has already surpassed last winter's total of 14.5 inches. The 11-inch storm on Dec. 13 fell into a two-way tie for the third biggest one-day snowfall for December. Tuesday's low temperature bottomed out at a frigid 8 degrees and Wednesday's low was in the teens. The picture was a complete turnaround from most of autumn, with many days registering temperatures 20 degrees higher than normal for the time of year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CHINA is suffering its WORST DROUGHT IN A DECADE, which has left millions of people short of drinking water and has shrunk reservoirs and rivers. Hardest hit are large swathes of the usually humid south, where water levels on several major rivers have plunged to HISTORIC LOWS in recent months. "The drought is the most serious of the decade and is affecting almost the whole country." The surface area of the country's largest fresh water lake, Poyang, in the southern province of Jiangxi, had fallen to a record 50 sq km (19 sq miles) from several thousand sq km at its peak. More than 760,000 residents faced drinking water shortages in the rice-growing province. The Gan river, Poyang's main tributary, has been hit by serious boat traffic jams due to the shallow water. Similar congestion has also occured on the Xiang river in neighbouring Hunan province and authorities have had to release water from behind the massive Three Gorges Dam to ease cargo ship stranding downstream on the Yangtze River, China's longest. The southwestern region of Guangxi has been hit by its WORST DROUGHT SINCE 1951, with over a million people suffering from drinking water shortages. About 400,000 hectares (1,545 sq miles) of crops have been damaged by drought this year, leading to total grain losses of 37.4 million metric tonnes. Consecutive droughts over past years have compounded the situation. Drought and floods are perennial problems in China, whose meteorologists have complained about the increased extreme weather and partly blamed it on global climate change. About 30 million Chinese in the countryside and more than 20 million in urban areas face drinking water shortages every year despite huge government investment to address the problem.
Rapidly melting glaciers threaten great rivers - warming has caused some of China's glaciers, a source for many of Asia's greatest rivers, to have melted by more than 18 per cent over the past five years. A survey of nearly 20,000 square kilometres of China's glaciers showed they were on average 7.4 per cent smaller than five years ago. China's glaciers, in the west of the country, feed many of Asia's greatest rivers, including the Yangtze, Mekong, Yellow and Ganges, as well as the Brahmaputra. In the past four decades, China's glaciers shrank by 3248 square kilometres, or 5.5 per cent since the 1960s, according to previous studies. One of China's top glaciologists warned last year of an "ecological catastrophe" in Tibet because of global warming. He said most glaciers in the region could melt away by 2100.

NORTH CAROLINA - Needles pile up as drought dries North Carolina Christmas trees. A RECORD North Carolina drought and temperatures close to 80 degrees Fahrenheit (17 Celsius) this month are creating trees that are quickly losing their needles. More consumers are skipping outdoor lots and buying artificial trees. Some who choose real ones are paying higher prices after the drought pushed up farmers' costs. Cultivating trees has been a struggle. The lack of rain, which also caused water shortages in Florida, Georgia and Alabama, killed as many as 40 percent of saplings. Money spent on fertilizer was wasted because the parched earth couldn't absorb it. Rainfall in Asheville was 35.4 inches (90 centimeters) through Dec. 17, a quarter less than normal.

AUSTRALIA - As the eastern states are pummelled by raging storms and flash floods, Perth is set to swelter through a Christmas-week heatwave. And the rest of summer is expected to be warmer than usual. January to March is expected to make up for the late onset of warmer weather this year. There is more than a 50 per cent chance that this summer will exceed the average median temperature. Perth had endured seven days above 40C in 2007, compared to the average of three days a year. If the temperature again exceeds 40C in the next week, this year will set the record for the most number of very hot days. This heatwave follows several weeks of UNUSUALLY cool weather. In fact, Perth is set to record only its 10th year, since records began in 1897, in which November has been warmer than December. The average temperature so far this month was 24.9C, compared with the December average of 28.8C. November this year was Perth's WARMEST AND SUNNIEST ON RECORD, due primarily to an absence of cold fronts. The average maximum was 28.5C, compared with the historical average of 26.2C. Perth's sunshine stands in stark contrast to the wild weather ravaging Australia's eastern seaboard. Since midnight Friday, a RECORD 171 millimetres of rain has fallen at Coonamble in New South Wales' north-west. There a large number of rural property owners isolated because their roads are washed away or impassable because of heavy rain. (photo)

INDIA - Mumbai's WARMEST CHRISTMAS IN YEARS - In an UNUSUAL fluctuation after a cool spell through the second half of November and the first couple of weeks in December, temperatures have now begun to surge. On Friday morning, Colaba recorded a minimum temperature of 24 degrees C, distinctly up from the 17-20 degrees C range in which the weather had remained during the nights in preceding weeks. Weather bureau officials expect this heat to persist through Christmas, which is traditionally known for cool weather in the city. The city is experiencing hot days and nights in the last weeks of December due to the circulation of westerly winds over Mumbai. "The city is receiving westerly winds which are hotter than the northerly winds that cool the atmosphere." The change has affected Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra as well as Goa. "The changing climatic system has resulted in moisture in the atmosphere, which in turn has increased the humidity." The humidity has crept in after the first fortnight of the month. On December 10, the minimum temperature was 18.2 degrees C; on December 15, it fell to 17.2 degrees C; on the 16th, it rose to 19.5 degrees C; thereafter the mercury has climbed steadily, touching 24 degrees C on Friday. In fact, Friday's recording was just three degrees less than the minimum temperature recorded on a summer day - May 21, 2007. December is otherwise known to be pleasant in the city. For the last four years, the city has been cold in December with night temperatures dropping to 13-16 degrees.

CHILE - While Chile has a blazing desert at its head, its feet lie beneath ice, with 7,000 square miles of continental ice masses and the hundreds of thousands of square miles of Antarctica that they claim. Global warming is melting Antarctica, and as a result large quantities of water will inundate their coastline. The beautiful Andean glaciers of southern Chile are also melting before our eyes. In Santiago, a few thousand miles from Antarctica, boiling hot temperatures have heralded the start of summer. They are advised to go to the beach only in late afternoon. The climate change has done serious damage to fruit and vegetable crops, most particularly the avocado. An exporter said that this season’s uncharacteristic frosts ruined 40 percent of his crop. Among farmers a feeling of apprehension has taken hold; the weather has always been slightly capricious, but of late it has become altogether unpredictable.

SPACE WEATHER-
Asteroid could collide with Mars on Jan. 30 - A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a one-in-75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday in Los Angeles. "These odds are EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. We frequently work with really long odds when we track threatening asteroids." The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to an object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb and wiping out 60 million trees. Scientists tracking the asteroid, currently halfway between Earth and Mars, initially put the odds of impact at one in 350 but increased the chances this week. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after new observations of the asteroid's orbit. The asteroid will likely pass within 30,000 miles of Mars. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it will probably hit near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 13 kilometres a second, the asteroid would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, December 21, 2007 -

There will be no updates on the 25th and 26th.
[Although I'll be checking in just in case we get another big Christmas quake this year.
12/26/2003 6.6 Bam, Iran quake (31,000 killed)
12/26/2004 9.3 Indonesia quake / tsunami
12/26/2006 7.1 & 7.0 Taiwan quakes (8 minutes apart) / minor tsunami]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The human brain starts working the moment you are born
and never stops until you stand up to speak in public.
George Jessel

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there have been a 6.1 & a 5.9 quake in the ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/20/07 -
5.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 CENTRAL TURKEY
6.6 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.3 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

NEW ZEALAND - After-shocks continue to shake the Gisborne area on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake flattened buildings in the centre of the town last night. An apartment block and two shops collapsed, several roofs caved in, winery vats burst and gaping holes opened in roads. A state of emergency was declared this morning, as another tremor hit at 6.47am today, registering 4.5 on the Richter scale. The after-shocks are expected to last for some time, although most will be “minor”. “It’s hard to say exactly how long they’ll go on for, but we’ll be recording them for weeks. Most will be small, and especially as it’s off-shore, most won’t be felt.” The quake was more powerful than the 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake. The last fatal earthquake in the country was in 1968 when a quake measuring 7.1 killed three people on the South Island’s west coast.
Reports of attempted looting are emerging this morning as Gisborne retailers return to their shops to survey the widespread damage from the 6.8 magnitude earthquake. Gisborne's mayor urged residents to head for the hills if another earthquake struck the region amid tsunami fears after the initial quake. He said because the 6.8 magnitude earthquake was centred close to shore, south east of the city, there was no tsunami warning system. Residents said the quake arrived with an "enormous roar". "It sounded like thunder, but a lot worse because it was a constant roar." (photos)
NEW ZEALAND - The Earthquake Commission has processed about $2 million in claims for damage caused by a series of earthquakes that rocked Southland earlier this year. Thousands of aftershocks caused the earth to move for southerners in the weeks following an initial quake measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, which struck on October 16, 60km west of Milford.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMA was 1077 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

CUBA still dealing with Tropical Storm Noel's aftermath. Cuba's eastern provinces are still hurting many weeks after RECORD RAINS swelled rivers and destroyed crops. Many homes are in shambles, food is in short supply and the list of needed repairs is long. A nation with an already precarious food supply and inefficient agriculture industry lost 20,000 tons of food. Initial estimates showed nearly 22,000 homes were affected by rain that began in October and did not stop until mid-November. By the time Noel hit, the soil was already soaked and the reservoirs already overflowing. The last time it rained this hard was 44 years ago, when Hurricane Flora killed 1,200 people.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Victoria's emergency workers are being stretched to the limit by wild weather hitting the state – and more of the same is forecast. The State Emergency Service has so far responded to some 1600 calls for assistance around the state after heavy rain caused flash flooding in parts of Victoria. And it seems there will be no respite. Melbourne was bracing for another lashing last night, with the weather bureau saying storms and a band of heavy rain are on track for the city from the north-west. A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said the storms expected could be even worse. The city was lashed with torrential rain about 4.30pm (AEDT) yesterday with public transport thrown into chaos and localised flooding delaying traffic. The worst-hit metropolitan areas so far have been Waverley in the east and Moorabbin, in Melbourne's southeast.
Rain this week of 25mm to 50mm in southwest Western Australia and more than 100mm in the state's eastern interior was UNUSUAL. "It's normally the dry season in that area."

MALAYASIA - Flood watchers and rescue services in the Kuching and Sibu divisions of Sarawak have been ordered to be on maximum alert. There are fears that Kuching and Samarahan could, for the first time in three years, be hit by floods, while Sibu and low-lying areas along the Rajang River could again be inundated by water, the second time in as many weeks, this weekend. "The forecast for areas in central and western Sarawak this weekend is not too good. In fact, it is quite bad. Heavy rain has been forecast for the next 72 hours over these parts of the state. And all it takes is 100ml of rain to trigger a flood." Strong winds of up to 50kph had also been forecast to hit the coastal areas of the southern half of the state over the same period. The winds could push the tides even higher. Floods in the state are normally triggered by the combination of heavy rain and the seasonal king tide, whose cycle starts tomorrow. It ends on Dec 29 with the king tide on Christmas Day the highest at 6.1metres.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, December 20, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Bodily exercise, when compulsory, does no harm to the body;
but knowledge which is acquired under compulsion obtains no hold on the mind.
Plato

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Today there has been a 5.7 quake in central Turkey. Television reported that 10 to 15 houses had been damaged in Sirapinar village near Bala, where the quake occurred at 11:48 a.m. (0948 GMT). The extent of the damage was not clear. So far there have been 43 aftershocks, ranging from 2.9 to 3.7

This morning there has been a 6.6 quake on the NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. "The quake has caused quite a lot of damage in the Gisborne area." The city's central business district lost its power and there was minor damage to some buildings with "lots of glass on the streets". "There were holes opening up in some streets, partial building collapses in some areas." Seismologists record about 14,000 earthquakes a year in and around New Zealand, about 100 to 150 of them big enough to be felt.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/19/07 -
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
7.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. (there have been 37 aftershocks so far, ranging from 2.6 to 5.6)
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 TIMOR REGION
5.4 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION (this was followed by 34 smaller aftershocks, ranging from 2.4 to 4.5)

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - An eruption of the most northern active volcano in Kamchatka – Shiveluch - occurred last night and appeared to be ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL ERUPTIONS OF THE RECENT YEARS. Powerful flows of ash were coming from the volcano crater along with gas flows and fragments of magma substances with the temperature reaching 800 degrees Centigrade. Ash belches went up to 10-12 kilometres high. Satellite photos distinctly show a 600-kilometre ash plume going west from the volcano. At the moment specialists register powerful explosions in the volcano crater; it is said that another eruption may take place soon. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 07S was 766 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

DID OLGA MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL STORM on Sunday? - if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck (although this one was a strange bird)... The return of Olga, and its "landfall" in Florida were very interesting. Just after 5:08 am EST Sunday, an EF1 tornado produced major damage at the Pasco County Jail just north of Tampa. The pressure dropped to 1002.9 mb, consistent with that of a typical low-to-medium strength tropical storm. For example in the past couple of years, the pressure at time of Ernesto's landfall in Florida in 2006 was 1003 mb and Gabrielle had a central pressure of 1005 mb upon reaching the North Carolina coast in September 2007. There were other wind reports in the Tampa area that were sustained near tropical storm force (34+ kts / 39+ mph), and many measurements of gusts up into that range, along with pressures that dropped to below 1006 mb ... and data also shows that the cold front had still not caught up yet. Even though the low was embedded in a pressure trough and wind shift, and the temperature/dewpoint dropped slightly as the convection came through, the air was still relatively tropical, and the cooler & drier air mass did not decisively arrive until a bit later. And although the accompanying storm surge was minor (peak generally ~2' above astronomical tides) given that that the wind field was not comparable in size or strength to that of a large hurricane, there was a noticeable jump in water level as the center/trough went by and the wind shifted. The convection (even though it was shrinking by the time it reached Florida) and the surface low were clearly associated with the remnant Olga circulation. What needs more study ... the strangeness alluded to at the beginning of this entry (aside from the fact that this tropical cyclone redevelopment occurred in the Gulf of Mexico in mid-December!) ... is the nature of the small-scale details as the system came onshore, given that the lowest pressure and strongest winds measured (at Clearwater Beach, if the pressure measurement there was accurate) were south of the supercell-ish circulation which hit the jail and which moved onshore about 15-20 miles north of Clearwater Beach. Also, the satellite imagery shows that the initial flare-up wasn't entirely directly due to the circulation itself, but rather was connected to the mid-latitude system. During that initial phase Saturday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms brought flash flooding and tornadoes to south Alabama and Georgia, respectively, and then as the night progressed the deepest convection coalesced around the remnants of Olga, which regenerated. We'll have to wait and see how the National Hurricane Center classifies this phase of Olga in their final post-event analysis. (satellite photos / graphs)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - South India is experiencing a severe spell of rain due to a depression in the Bay of Bengal which is heading towards Gulf of Mannar. Rains in Chennai have stopped, the delta region has been the worst hit where 16 people have died and now there is a danger of thousands of acres of paddy being destroyed. Thanjavur and Nagapattinam districts received up to 30 centimetres of rain. In Trichy four people lost their lives after a building next to their house collapsed on their roof. Chennai recieved just 9 cms of rain but that was enough to cause water logging. In many pockets people had to wade through ankle deep water and it was a nightmare for motorists. A landslip on the railway tracks near Dindigul temporarily stopped rail traffic and delayed Chennai-bound trains by several hours. The state government also declared a holiday for schools across the state. The met office has ruled out possibility of a cyclone though there is more rain to look forward to. "There will be a wind speed of 40 to 60 kms and wide spread rains across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry." Paddy farmers are shattered as over 1lakh acres of samba crop remain submerged just before harvest. Losses could mount if the rain lashing continues. Bangalore also woke up to heavy rain. Rain is not unknown in December to Bangalore but the UNUSUALLY LOW MAXIMUM temperature has Bangaloreans wrapped up. The city is experiencing a maximum temperature of 22 degrees celsius against the normal 26 degrees. The minimum temperature however, is two degrees above normal for this time of year at 18 degrees.
For India and the world, the suffering is a warning of worse to come, many scientists say. When the monsoon comes each summer to poor Basahi, an Indian village, it brings misery. Raindrops as wide as nickels fall straight and hard. They pool in fields and churn dirt lanes into mud. But this year's monsoon rains were THE HEAVIEST ANYONE CAN REMEMBER in India's northeastern Bihar state. Something has changed, they say, and their fears are confirmed by many in the scientific community who say India's floods are getting worse as global warming alters the earth's climate. In the past, the rains were always interrupted by glimpses of the sun. But this year 20 straight days of rain dumped 91.44cm of water, A RECORD for most of the state. Together with increased run-off from glaciers in Tibet and Nepal, the water swelled the local Budhigandak River and in early August it breached a levee and sent giant waves crashing through the village of Basahi, killing 22 people and adding to a death toll of more than a thousand in Bihar. As the earth has heated over the past century due to global warming, evaporation has increased and the atmosphere has become wetter, leading to heavier storms and more floods. Globally, the number of floods have increased six-fold since 1980. This year, flooding affected more than 250 million people. Many scientists link global warming with recent record-breaking floods in the US Midwest, England and Mexico, where five days of torrential rains in November left most of the state of Tabasco under water and damaged the homes of nearly a million people. But with a four-month monsoon season and millions of poor farmers, India and neighbouring Bangladesh are arguably the world's nations most at risk to increased flooding. To some observers, the impacts of climate change on flooding already are obvious. Evidence suggests that India has experienced a shift in where floods occur as parts of the country have warmed faster than others and weather patterns have changed. While monsoon rains had been very predictable in the past, rainfall in recent years has become more variable. Regions that were not prone to droughts and floods are now prone to them. In India's northwestern Rajasthan state, five districts that were flooded for more than two months last year had never experienced flooding. Meanwhile, India's northeastern Assam state remained mostly dry between 2004 and 2006 but used to be under water for four or five months every year. There has been a shift in the climate cycle. Society needs to be made aware and change in a big way.

NEW ZEALAND - The first rain in more than a month hit the pavements of Palmerston North this week. The rainfall was a welcome respite in a year that might go down as the driest on record. "It's the first significant rain we have had for 32 days...With temperatures up around the mid-20s lately, there is a lot of water loss from the soil. It doesn't take long to evaporate." The unseasonably balmy weather was UNUSUAL for December, and could be put down to the La Nina weather pattern and northerly air streams from the tropics blowing across the country. That's why it has been feeling more like Brisbane or the Cook Islands than the Manawatu of late. Only 32.4mm of rain has been recorded so far for December, with November's total at 63mms. And unless the heavens open and provide 70mm of rain in the next few days, it will be the DRIEST YEAR IN THE NANAWATU IN 38 YEARS - SINCE 1969. The latest figures from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research show November in the Manawatu was 27 percent sunnier than average, with 259 hours of sunshine.

AUSTRALIA - The terrifying wind storm that lashed South Australia's Mallee Wednesday may have been a genuine tornado. The Bureau of Meteorology says it will examine damage at the town of Pinnaroo, where winds were so strong that Stobie poles were bent by its force. Although severe storms are sometimes described as mini-tornados, the giant funnels of wind that regularly cause devastation in the United States are considered RARE here. Between 2.40pm and 3pm, the town received 21.4mm of rain but witnesses said the rain was "almost horizontal" because of the winds, so much of the rain didn't fall in the gauge. Chimneys had fallen over, powerlines were down and the fire station and school had incurred some damage, but there were no injuries reported. "It was stinking hot one minute and then – crash. The winds were just unbelievable and the rain and hail was so strong you couldn't see more than 10m in front of you." An olive grower 40km north of Pinnaroo, said the area was a mess. "We've got 80,000 olive trees and we've probably lost over half of this year's crop." (photo)

MEXICO - Mexican authorities on Tuesday cautiously opened a canal through an enormous landslide that blocked a major river in southern Mexico in November and swept away an entire community. The Grijalva River, the second-largest by volume in Mexico, flowed without incident through an 875-yard-long canal, dug through the middle of an enormous mountain of earth that collapsed Nov. 4 during heavy rains. The landslide buried the town of San Juan de Grijalva, blocked a section of the river and kicked up a huge wave of water, killing 19 people. Before unblocking the river, officials evacuated thousands of downstream residents near the waterway in the southern state of Chiapas and neighboring Tabasco state, as a precaution against flooding.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - Winter arrived early this year. If you look at the calendar it shows that winter’s official arrival is Dec. 22, however residents of Bay St. George South already have a month’s worth of winter weather behind them and if the weather report is correct they have some more coming up. In days gone by it was not unusual to have winter weather begin anytime after November 1. Bay St. George South experienced long, cold winters from the thirties right up to the early eighties, when they started to experience shorter and less cold winters.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Continuing drought has seen sheep and lamb numbers in the southern states fall to 80 YEAR LOWS.
South Australia's duck hunting season has been cancelled for 2008 because of the drought.

ASIA - Asian nations, many at risk from climate change, must invest more in urban and indoor farming to help feed the hundreds of millions of people in their growing cities, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Wednesday. Of the 10 countries most affected by extreme weather in 2006, seven were Asian - Afghanistan, China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam. Asia needs secure food supplies for its rising population, and "indoor and urban agriculture is receiving special attention to make most efficient use of space using controlled environments." Weather problems affecting Asia range from drought in recent years in Afghanistan and other central and southwest Asian countries to floods this year in China and Bangladesh. The WMO said it was necessary to improve seasonal prediction, early warning systems, and monitoring for regional droughts, to help farmers decide which crops to grow. Forecasts could also help experts improve their ability to control the spread of pests and diseases. The agency called on countries to provide the latest information on the impact of climate change on water resources, and assess whether modern or traditional methods of collecting rainwater were best for them.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

PAKISTAN said there was no threat of a pandemic from bird flu, as World Health Organisation experts carried out tests in the country's northwest after eight people were infected by the virus.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A room without books is like a body without a soul.
Cicero

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning a large 7.2 earthquake rattled Alaska's seismically active Aleutian Islands, but there were no immediate reports of any damages or injuries. The quake was centered about 125 miles west of Adak in the island chain (some 1,300 miles away from Anchorage). A tsunami warning was canceled early today after officials determined waves from the earthquake posed no widespread destructive threat.
A separate earthquake of magnitude-4.0 shook California in the San Bernardino Mountains resort town of Big Bear City about 100 miles east of Los Angeles. There were no reports of any damages or injuries from the quake, which struck shortly before 4:15 a.m.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/18/07 -
5.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
5.0 PAKISTAN

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND - A Brazilian fortune-teller's prediction of a tsunami-inducing earthquake this coming Sunday has got locals so spooked that a seafront polling station has been forced to be relocated to higher ground. They moved the polling booth from a public hall in Ban Sak further inland because locals said they would not vote if it was by the sea. The rumours had terrified voters, especially local Moken sea gypsies. A massive tidal wave triggered by an earthquake in the Indian Ocean slammed into the six Andaman coastal provinces on Boxing Day three years ago, killing well over 5,000 people in Thailand. One tsunami survivor said a Brazilian fortune teller alerted the Indonesian government and news agencies of a forthcoming major earthquake on Sunday. He said many locals had already cancelled their plans along the seashore and were preparing for a possible evacuation. The Mineral Resources Department director-general dismissed the rumours however, saying that scientists could not predict earthquakes. He asked the public to trust in the tsunami early warning system put in place in the six provinces along the Andaman coastline.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 07S was 697 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Severe flooding in Malaysia looks likely to affect palm oil supplies for November and December, sparking a shortage that would drive up prices. Malaysia's monsoon season runs from November to February, and flooding following heavy rains was first reported last week. The latest reports cite 26 deaths as a result of the flooding, and more than 20,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in the worst hit areas. Palm oil is a form of vegetable oil obtained from the fruit of the oil palm tree, and is found in a diverse range of products including bread, crisps, margarine and cosmetics. Growers have predicted reduced output of as much as 30%. The flooding is making it difficult for growers to harvest their fruits and deliver them to the mills. There are also fears that, once the flood waters recede, the fruits that come to market will be over-ripe or rotten. Malaysia exported 14.4m tonnes of palm oil in 2006, just over 50% of the global trade in oils and fats. Amongst the worst hit regions are said to be Pahang, Jahor in the south, Kelantan and Terengganu in the east, and parts of Sarawak. In the north-east, the Golok river on the border with Thailand burst its banks yesterday. And a high tide phenomenon has been predicted to hit coastal areas on Friday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

World food stocks dwindling rapidly, UN warns - In an "unforeseen and UNPRECEDENTED" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned Monday. The changes created "a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food," particularly in the developing world. The agency's food price index rose by more than 40 percent this year, compared with 9 percent the year before - a rate that was already unacceptable. At the same time, reserves of cereals are severely depleted. World wheat stores declined 11 percent this year, to the LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 1980. That corresponds to 12 weeks of the world's total consumption - much less than the average of 18 weeks consumption in storage during the period 2000-2005. There are only 8 weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the earlier period. Prices of wheat and oilseeds are at RECORD HIGHS. U.S. wheat futures broke $10 a bushel FOR THE FIRST TIME Monday, the agricultural equivalent of $100 a barrel oil. "We're concerned that we are facing the perfect storm for the world's hungry...You can debate why this is all happening, but what's most important to us is that it's a long-term trend, reversing decades of decreasing food prices." Climate specialists say that the vulnerability will only increase as further effects of climate change are felt. "If there's a significant change in climate in one of our high production areas, if there is a disease that effects a major crop, we are in a very risky situation." Already "UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENTS," linked to climate change - such as droughts, floods and storms - have decreased production in important exporting countries like Australia and Ukraine. In Southern Australia, a significant reduction in rainfall in the past few years led some farmers to sell their land and move to Tasmania, where water is more reliable. "In the U.S., Australia, and Europe, there's a very substantial capacity to adapt to the effects on food - with money, technology, research and development. In the developing world, there isn't." With food and oil prices approaching records, it may not make sense to send food aid to poorer countries, but instead focus on helping farmers grow food locally. Farmers can adjust to 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees) of warming by switching to more resilient species, changing planting times, or storing water for irrigation, for example. But after that, "all bets are off...Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale, but there is a strong potential for negative surprises." There has been "tension and political unrest related to food markets" in a number of poor countries this year, including Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania. "We need to play a catalytic role to quickly boost crop production in the most affected countries."

AUSTRALIA - After two years of drought, parts of Western Australia received heavy rains Sunday that did more to wash away topsoil than to replenish water supplies. But more strange, the rains prompted a strange and reclusive frog to emerge from months or years of hibernation. The giant water holding frog can spend years underground, where its skin forms a protective water barrier, and it lives off reserves. After so destructive a drought – the country's wheat crop has been dismal, affecting food prices worldwide – one might take comfort that the frogs weren't falling from the sky. However, the sudden onset of rain could encourage another apocalyptic scene: Locusts. The rain has created the perfect breeding conditions, apparently.
AUSTRALIA - The drought and a honey shortage is forcing apiarists to move their bee hives from central Victoria to Gippsland, in the state's east. Yellow stringybark trees have failed to flower in this region this season. Without Gippsland's gum trees, they would not be able to harvest a summer crop of honey. "As far as the honey packers are concerned there's an extreme shortage of honey because of the drought right throughout the four eastern states."

UGANDA - Once again, the Meteorological Department has dutifully warned Ugandans and their government of an impending weather disaster. Last time around, the meteorologists warned of the impending heavy rains that led to the deadly floods in eastern Uganda. That time, the meteorologists were generally ignored until the floods came, claimed lives and washed away thousands of houses and rendered hundreds of thousands destitute. Then comic panic steps started, with the entire country holding its breath, waiting for a UN helicopter that was serving in southern Sudan to arrive and take relief to the marooned people in Teso. Now the department has announced harsh post La Nina conditions which will see the very dry weather progressing into severe drought towards the middle of next year. Large parts of the north, the east and this time the Lake Victoria basin are likely to suffer severe drought.

BRITAIN - Across the land, the most unlikely little flowers are poking their way up into the grey December light as another year of chaotic weather convinces them that spring has arrived. After seeing primroses in Sussex, daffodils in Devon, crab apples in Nottingham and wild strawberries in Cardiff, gardeners probably suspected that bluebells and snowdrops would not be waiting for February to bloom. They were right. Confused by the warmest April on record, a cold, wet summer and a mild autumn, many plants are flowering early. The Royal Botanical Gardens in Kew, which monitors 100 plant species, said at least three quarters were appearing earlier each year. "This year we have lilacs, which are supposed to flower in May, coming into life in November. Our camellias, another spring flower, have also already bloomed." Unseasonal blooms are extremely vulnerable to the hard frosts. "Last year our horse chestnuts came into life too soon and resulting damage meant the buds didn't grow back, come spring the branches were bare." Many plants could waste their chance to pollinate by blooming out of season. "Bluebells in particular are timed to flower in synch with the arrival of trees leafing overhead and providing shelter. If they start coming in without that shelter, the plants will die without spreading their pollen." Some species could vanish over the next few decades as Britain increasingly takes on a Mediterranean climate. "Plants are becoming confused and disturbed by the warmer autumns and we are seeing it year on year."

JAPAN - Pollen levels in Japan to reach new highs in 2008 - Cedar and cypress pollen levels will likely be much higher in most parts of Japan in 2008 because of the extremely hot summer this year. Pollen levels are determined by the weather conditions of the preceding summer and increase in proportion to temperature and hours of sunshine. Because of the record-breaking hot weather this summer, allergics should buckle up for a rough spring. Recent nationwide observations have confirmed that the number of male flowers seen this year are already higher than last year at this time.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A bore is a person who talks when you wish him to listen.
Ambrose Bierce

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/17/07 -
5.3 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Experts warn major Israel quakes fast approaching - As if political instability and rampant insecurity in the Middle East are not worrying enough, Israeli experts are warning that a major earthquake could strike the region at any time. Three minor quakes over the past month have served as a reminder that Israel and the West Bank sit atop one of the most sensitive fault lines in the world, where earthquakes have a history of causing havoc. "We can say with certainty that an earthquake of a magnitude of six on the Richter scale could take place in the coming years." The Lod institute, part of the infrastructure ministry, is on standby day and night to brief the Israeli authorities within 10 minutes on the epicentre and magnitude of a powerful tremor in order to mobilise an emergency response. The Israeli home front command publishes extensive advice on how to behave in the event of an earthquake on its website, urging families to prepare emergency supplies to survive for 24 to 72 hours until help arrives. All new homes built in Israel are equipped with bomb shelters and the civil defence advises that those without should crouch inside a doorway or under a heavy table in the event of an earthquake.

CHILE - A strong earthquake was reported at 6:27 AM Monday in Santiago. The quake lasted 40 seconds and registered a magnitude of 4.9 on the Richter scale within the capital. According to preliminary information, the epicenter of the movement was located 75 kilometers to the north of Santiago. The event accompanied a series of tremors that were registered during the weekend in different areas of the country including Tocopilla, which was recently devastated by a strong earthquake. The city of Valparaíso had also been shaken by a previous earthquake at 3:30 AM.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone CELINA was 131 nmi E of Plaisance, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - Floods in Malaysia's north-eastern Kelantan state worsened after a dam burst in southern Thailand as the nationwide death toll rose to 23 on Monday. Water levels at the Golok river, which marks the boundary between Malaysia and Thailand, rose above the danger level of nine meters (29.53 feet) to 10.51 meters. "I was told the broken dam has caused a higher volume of water to enter Golok river and move towards Rantau Panjang and other adjacent areas." The number of flood evacuees in Kelantan rose sharply to 6,039 on Monday from 3,772 the previous day, while in central Pahang state 21,699 were being housed in relief centers. But in southern Johor state flood conditions improved steadily, with 3,500 people remaining in relief centers after the weekend, compared with almost 5,000 last week.

UNITED KINGDOM - Flooding in the UK is a threat on the scale of terrorism or an influenza pandemic, according to the author of a report on this summer's floods This year's flooding was so severe because the ground was already heavily saturated. But he warned that this would only get worse in the future, due to changing weather conditions and more frequent rainfall. "The changing natures of floods means we need to improve our flood warnings. Flood risk and events of this sort are here to stay...The country was fortunate that the impact was not much more severe.” The report also stresses the need for the public to prepare themselves. All households should put together a "flood kit" containing important documents such as insurance policies, and equipment such as torches, radios, blankets and first aid kits.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
North American snows tighten grip - A snowstorm that caused major disruption in eastern Canada and the north-eastern US still has Canada's Atlantic provinces in its grip. The storm, which began on Saturday, was ONE OF THE WORST IN THE REGION FOR DECADES. Some 20,000 people in the province of New Brunswick were without power as high winds tore down power lines. The driving snow and sleet were blamed for several deaths over the weekend, and caused widespread travel problems. The weather system has moved north-eastwards to Newfoundland and Labrador after hitting the Great Lakes area, eastern Canada and New England on Sunday. Residents throughout the affected regions were trapped in their homes, after the storm dumped as much as 50cm (20in) of snow. The snowstorm, which had earlier hit the Midwestern US, brought blizzards, hail, freezing rain and high winds to Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces of Canada late on Saturday and throughout Sunday. Slippery roads in the US were blamed for four deaths in Indiana, two in Michigan and one in Wisconsin and one in Pennsylvania. Around 160,000 customers were left without electricity in parts of Pennsylvania on Sunday after heavy snow damaged power lines. The snowfall comes less than a week after an ice storm claimed 38 lives in the Midwest, most of them in road accidents. Tens of thousands of people in the affected areas of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri still have no electricity. (map)
Since mid-November, nearly half of the usual snowfall for an ENTIRE winter has blanketed these parts.

AUSTRALIA - Where there are normally hot, dry easterlies there have been spectacular rain storms, where there are normally dry paddocks there has been heavy rain and where there is normally air-conditioning there have been heaters at full blast. The usually red dirt of the eastern Goldfields was blanketed in white hail, with workers from the Cawse nickel mine near Kalgoorlie treated to a RARE sight. Workers were amazed to find a blanket of hail covering the usually dry red earth. “It was the most amazing thing, I’ve never seen hail like that before.” In the north-eastern Wheatbelt the chilly December delivered RECORD FALLS and low temperatures to more than two dozen places across WA. Bunbury recorded its LOWEST DECEMBER MAXIMUM of 16.8C while Wandering and Collie residents shivered through their LOWEST MONTHLY TOP of just 15.3C. There were RECORD ONE-DAY FALLS FOR DECEMBER at places including Moora with 76mm, Dalwallinu 48mm and Kokardine 102mm. The BIZARRE cold and wet snap came after Perth had sweltered through its HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. The deluge was a mixed blessing - it helped fill empty dams but damaged roads and stopped the harvest. Farther east into drought country, rainfall in the Dalwallinu region had ranged from 25mm to 98mm and many farmers had recorded their highest fall for the year. The Weather Bureau predicted a La Nina pattern would increase the likelihood of above-average rainfall in the South-West from January to March.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

ITALY - Italy's woodlands are already dying as climate change starts to bite in southern Europe, experts warn. Eight out of 10 trees across Italy's varied ecosystems were already suffering from the effects of rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall. Research showed that a third of the country's woodland was seriously threatened, and that 60 per cent was likely to suffer permanent damage. The warning echoes fears that the Mediterranean, and Italy in particular, is proving highly vulnerable to climate change. The Mediterranean is warming up faster than the rest of the world. "It's a climate change hot spot, one of the areas where we actually see the change happening". In the next decades temperature rises in Europe during the summer months could be 40-50 per cent higher than elsewhere. Of the six major droughts to occur in Italy in the last 60 years, four have occurred since 1990. The average temperature has increased by 0.4şC in the north in 20 years and by 0.7şC in the south. Many of Italy's tree species were ill-equipped to survive hotter, drier conditions. "Despite its large Mediterranean coastline, Italy has a relatively low proportion - just 40 per cent - of the shrubby Mediterranean trees that are best adapted to resist the heat waves that are on their way." Most surprising was how widespread the threat was across Italy. The regions of Tuscany, Umbria, Abruzzo, Puglia and also the islands of Sicily and Sardinia were being hard hit by rising temperatures, with several species of oak and beech tree in particular under threat. Lack of rainfall was proving the biggest threat to woodland in the Alpine north of the country. It is not only Italy's forests that are causing enviromentalists concern, however. Failing cold currents and rising water temperatures are exacerbating periodic flooding - and this is causing massive erosion along Italy's Adriatic coast. As a result they have drawn up a plan in which hundreds of miles of new sand dunes would be created to save it the country's most endangered coastline and its wildlife from rising sea levels.

UN warns on soaring food prices - Dramatic rises in international food prices are threatening millions of people in poor countries. Food prices have risen an UNPRECEDENTED 40% in the last year and many nations may be unable to cope. 37 countries face food crises due to conflict and disaster. The increases are partly due to droughts and floods linked to climate change, as well as rising oil prices boosting demand for bio-fuels. Changing diet in fast-developing nations such as China is also considered a factor, with more land needed to raise livestock to meet increasing demand for meat. International cereal prices have already sparked food riots in several countries.

Monday, December 17, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Our own physical body possesses a wisdom which we who inhabit the body lack.
Henry Miller

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/16/07 -
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - Huge waves are expected off the Cornish coast and a surfing competition has been called at short notice at Newquay to take advantage of them. Waves up to 9ft (2.74m) high have been forecast. "Low pressure over the Atlantic gives you a good swell."

BORNEO - Forty families from two longhouses in Kanowit had to evacuate to higher ground when their longhouses in Mapai were hit by floods on Thursday. They were among the first victims of the floods which had hit not only Kanowit but also Sibu and the Selangau districts since Tuesday night. The floods were due to heavy rainfall experienced since last Monday in the upstream areas of the Rajang River which coincided with the seasonal high tide. "Sibu Division is going to experience two rounds of king tide occurrence from Dec 11 to 16 and from Dec 23 until the end of the year. If there is heavy rainfall in the upstream areas, the low-lying downstream area is going to face floods". There were at least four critical flood-prone areas in Sibu.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 06S was 359 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH AFRICA - The South African Weather Service issued a national weather warning on Sunday, as heavy rains settled in over the Western and Eastern Cape. The service is warning that thunderstorms will become "severe" in some parts, with "a risk of large hail and damaging winds", as well as the possibility of flooding. The rain is expected to continue overnight, and to move into the northern Free State, central and eastern North-West province, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo today. The Southern Cape region is still recovering from heavy rains and flooding that caused over R600m worth of damage in November.

MALAYSIA - A second wave of floods is expected to hit Pahang and the authorities have been told to be on highest alert. High tide has been forecast to occur at the Sungai Pahang estuary next Friday. “I cannot say for sure it will happen like in Johor but we are not taking any chances. All the related agencies have been told to be on standby to face a more severe flood situation. The biggest obstacle we are facing here is that heavy rainfall continues to occur in upstream areas, resulting in flood waters slow in receding." The flood situation in Pahang did not show any signs of letting up. At 1pm Sunday, the number of evacuees stood at 21,199 people from 4,384 families in 199 flood relief centres.

THAILAND - Residents of Narathiwat province are suffering from THE WORST FLOOD EVER EXPERIENCED IN A DECADE as a result of intensifying easterly winds over the Gulf of Thailand. Swollen water levels in the Sungai Kolok river have damaged government buildings, schools and entire villages. The hardest hit area is Munoh district, where water levels exceeded one metre. Munoh market, an important Thai-Malaysian trade centre, appeared to be wrecked. One body has so far been recovered from the Sungai Kolok river. The meteorological department has issued flood warnings for the three major southern provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat for another two days. Small boats were also warned against going out to sea until at least Tuesday.

GEORGIA - After numerous days of RECORD HIGHS last week, Saturday brought RECORD RAINFALL to Augusta Regional Airport, where 2.58" of rain fell.
With fewer than three weeks left in the year, Atlanta needed 4.55 inches of rain to avoid breaking the record low annual rainfall of 31.80 inches.

AUSTRALIA - RECORD DECEMBER RAINS fell across the drought-stricken Wheatbelt last night flooding paddocks, roads and railways.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS - "Probably due to global climatic changes, the Galapagos Islands were experiencing their COLDEST YEAR IN 30 YEARS." This year, cloudy, damp and 65-degree temperatures often replaced October and November's traditional sunny, extremely dry and 85- to 95-degree temperatures.

CANADA - A massive blizzard that slammed into Ontario and Quebec, dumping mounds of snow, disrupting air travel and causing treacherous driving conditions, was expected to hit the Atlantic provinces next.
Officials in Prince George, British Columbia say the area will not be safe from flooding until the weather warms up next spring.

MASSACHUSETTS - the second storm in four days dumped more snow and a layer of ice on much of the region. Saturday's storm dumped another 6 to 10 inches in Middlesex County on top of similar accumulation Thursday. And this coming Wednesday's forecast includes a 40 percent chance of snow, followed by more expected snow Friday. For the balance of the year, the National Weather Service forecasts colder than normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Sea level rise could be double - the world's sea levels could rise twice as high this century as UN climate scientists have predicted, according to researchers who looked at what happened more than 100,000 years ago, the last time Earth got this hot. Experts have suggested a maximum 21st century sea level rise of about 0.8m. But researchers said in a new study that the maximum could be twice that, or 1.6m.

Climate change will see the “Africanisation” of Spain - Incessant heat waves, the extinction of vegetal and animal species, and the spread of desert will cover southern Spain in its entirety. A study warns of environmental catastrophe before the end of the century. The country’s climate will become more like that of central Africa as tropical disease claims the lives of thousands and swathes of its Mediterranean beaches, which today bring millions of tourists to the country, are lost to rising sea levels. With as much as 97 per cent of the country’s indigenous reptile and amphibian life facing extinction, Spain could see the loss of some of its most emblematic species such as the Moorish gecko and Lataste’s viper. Alarmingly, the scientists who compiled the report claim 50 per cent of Spain’s vegetation could also be lost to climate change. “Terrestrial ecosystems will be subjected to A CHANGE IN CONDITIONS NOT SEEN IN MILLENNIA.” A rise in temperature will bring subtropical diseases unknown until now in Spain, the study claims. Atmospheric pollution will also claim many lives as instances of respiratory disease increase. Heat waves like that of 2003, which claimed 6,500 lives around Europe, will become a common occurrence.

ANTARCTICA - Hut Point Peninsula, near Scott Base, Antarctica, has been experiencing an UNUSUAL heatwave. Like much of the South Island in New Zealand, Scott Base has been basking in a summer heatwave. The Antarctica New Zealand crew has watched the temperature rise to a sweltering 3 degrees, which definitely felt warm compared with the norm. "There were people outside in T-shirts. I didn't think it would get this warm in Antarctica." The heat has also affected the neighbouring American base, McMurdo Station. A dozen workers hosted a beach party with deck chairs overlooking the still-frozen sea ice. The beach party proved hazardous, with some succumbing to sunburn in the ozone-depleted atmosphere.

AUSTRALIA - Meteorologists are predicting a hotter and drier January and February than previously forecast, and no end to the drought in sight.

U.S. WILDFIRES -
SOUTH CAROLINA - Upcoming wildfire season could stretch SC firefighters to their limit. In South Carolina the number of wildfires reported reached 3424 through November, compared to 3017 in all of 2006.
FLORIDA - Since January 1st this year, a total of 4630 wildfires have burned 582000 acres of state and federal land in Florida. The risk of wildfires is expected to increase over the next few months, according to a top state officials.
ALASKA - Climate change is increasing the severity of wildfires in Alaska, with worrying implications for black spruce-dominated boreal forests.
CALIFORNIA - Wildfires' scars driving hungry deer onto roads. Deer foraging for food after the recent wildfires are being killed in RECORD NUMBERS by automobiles.

Sunday, December 16, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
He who loves the world as his body may be entrusted with the empire.
Lao-tzu

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.7 quake near ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/15/07 -
6.2 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.8 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.5 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.0 FIJI REGION
12/14/07 -
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS

CALIFORNIA - The Loma Prieta earthquake may have announced itself weeks ahead of time by sending out an electromagnetic signal, which was recorded near the epicenter. This magnetic oddity got a closer look Thursday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco as scientists debated whether it was just an instrument error or an actual phenomenon that could potentially be used to warn of future quakes hours — or weeks — ahead of time. Geophysicists from the U.S. Geological Survey were skeptical, but scientists from Stanford argued that there is enough evidence to warrant investing in more magnetic instruments in earthquake hot zones around the world to test the idea that major quakes are preceded by a measurable electromagnetic surge.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
NORTH DAKOTA - 12/10/07, 12/11/07 & 11/21/07 - Loud booms heard in Mitchell Monday, Tuesday and late last month are believed to have been sonic booms. Monday and Tuesday, there were reports of explosions or thunderous booms in Mitchell. The first was reported around noon Monday; several more came early Tuesday evening. The Mitchell Department of Public Safety also received some reports on Nov. 21. One person reported a “huge shockwave that went by and shook my whole house.” A sonic boom is a thunder-like noise that can be heard on the ground when an aircraft overhead surpasses the speed of sound. Mitchell is on the edge of a military operating airspace. Supersonic flights are allowed within the airspace for flights higher than 30,000 feet. On the days the booms were reported, Air National Guard pilots were flying in the Mitchell area. “It’s very possible that we would have had airplanes operating in that airspace that may have transitioned to that supersonic level.” However, they do not know for certain that the booms heard in Mitchell were a direct result of the flight training. The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has not received any reports of anything out of the ordinary. “It’s very unlikely that it would be weather-related, especially at this time of the year.” An interesting but unlikely source of such a loud noise is a meteorite strike, but again, the NWS has received no such reports.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TASMANIA - A man has been washed away by a giant wave while fishing on rocks on Tasmania's east coast.

VOLCANOES -
ICELAND - Hundreds of small earthquakes have been detected in the region Upptyppingar since Friday last week, located about 20 kilometers east of the volcano Askja and north of Vatnajökull glacier. Experts say a volcanic eruption may follow. Most of the earthquakes occurred at a depth of 13 to 15 kilometers. If their source moves closer to the surface by a few kilometers, the likelihood of a volcanic eruption increases. There were, however, fewer earthquakes in the area on Thursday than in the days before, but that may only be a temporary condition. The area north of Vatnajökull glacier is volcanically active though there has not been an eruption there for 1,000 years. The volcano Askja last erupted in 1961. Because geologists have no experience of volcanic eruptions in Upptyppingar, it is difficult for them to predict whether there will be an eruption there in the near future. Other signs are likely to appear before an eruption begins, like shallower earthquakes. Upptyppingar is a popular tourist spot in summer but few go there in winter. No one lives nearby, so a volcanic eruption would probably not cause much danger or damage. Never the less, the area will continue to be under surveillance.

Molten Lava May Be Melting Greenland's Ice Cap - Global warming may not be the only thing melting Greenland. Scientists have found at least one natural magma hotspot under the Arctic island that could be pitching in. In recent years, Greenland's ice has been melting more and flowing faster into the sea — a record amount of ice melted from the frozen mass this summer — and Earth's rising temperatures are suspected to be the main culprit. But clues to a new natural contribution to the melt arose when scientists discovered a thin spot in the Earth's crust under the northeast corner of the Greenland Ice Sheet where heat from Earth's insides could seep through. The corner of Greenland where the hotspot was found had no known ice streams, rivers of ice that run through the main ice sheet and out to sea, until one was discovered in 1991. What exactly caused the stream to form was uncertain. "Ice streams have to have some reason for being there, and it's pretty surprising to suddenly see one in the middle of the ice sheet." The newly discovered hotspot, where Earth's crust is thinner allowing hot magma from Earth's mantle to come closer to the surface, is just below the ice sheet and could have caused it to form. What caused the hotspot to suddenly form is another mystery. "It could be that there's a volcano down there, but we think it's probably just the way the heat is being distributed by the rock topography at the base of the ice."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 06S was 559 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Over eight thousand people have been evacuated from towns and villages in the north western Dominican Republic as a result of the continued Yaque River flooding. Areas most affected include Guayubín, Cerro Gordo, El Pozo, Palo Verde, Hatillo Palma, La Guajaca, Cana Chapetón and Castańuelas. Most of these areas are cut off and about 500 people have been taken to shelters in Villa Vásquez and other places.

ZIMBABWE - The authorities in Zimbabwe are preparing to airlift tinned food and clothes to flood victims in the northern Zambezi Valley where heavy rains have swept away some homes on Saturday. A key bridge in the district has been swept away, leaving some villagers stranded. Other low-lying areas in the country are at risk of flash floods as heavy rains are expected to continue throughout the country this week.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - A winter storm is setting its sights on the Northeast today after leaving at least two dead in highway accidents in Wisconsin and Michigan. Up to a foot of snow fell from the Plains across the Midwest yesterday. At least as much is expected in parts of Pennsylvania and New York today as the storm moves east toward New England.
PENNSYLVANIA - After a daytime snowstorm dropped 4.5 inches of snow and sleet in East Stroudsburg on Thursday, Friday was predicted to be a rest before snow began again on Saturday evening. "Boy, is it ever UNUSUAL to have this many snows this early." Even before more snow hit the area Saturday and Sunday, Stroudsburg and East Stroudsburg are already SETTING RECORDS FOR EARLY SNOWFALL. The boroughs have not had this much accumulated snow, nearly 20 inches, this early in the season since 1903.
MASSACHUSETTS - New England dug out on Friday from a RECORD-SETTING STORM that dumped 10 inches of snow on Boston, more than the city typically sees in the entire month of December (7.8 inches). A second storm was expected to drop 6 inches of snow and sleet starting on Saturday evening. "It is a powerful Northeaster." Thursday's snowfall set a NEW ONE-DAY RECORD for December 13.

OHIO - The system that's dumping on the tri-state is an UNUSUAL one. Normally, storms during December move up the Eastern Seaboard, eventually becoming dreaded nor'easters. This year, however, La Nińa is causing storms to form over western states such as Texas and then move northeast. "A cold air mass is trying to surround the system. We have a steady flow, rather than a huge quick blast, of cold air." La Nińa, which occurs every four or five years, has a silver lining, because normally such weather patterns moderate the severity of winter.
CANADA - Central and Eastern Canada are braced for a major storm this weekend. Environment Canada is predicting strong winds and heavy snowfall heading across Ontario and Quebec. The agency has issued weather warnings for parts of Ontario, southern Quebec and into the Maritimes. The weather warnings were predicting that a major winter storm will move into southwestern Ontario, with snow beginning Saturday afternoon and then spreading northeast into the remainder of southern and eastern Ontario by Saturday evening. It doesn't look like there will be any respite on Sunday as the Environment Canada website is forecasting a massive storm reaching Ohio Sunday morning, then tracking across New York state into New England by Sunday night. "This storm track will place much of southern and eastern Ontario directly under the brunt of heavy snow. A few claps of thunder along with bursts of very heavy snow are also likely." The series of storms this December is in stark contrast to 12 months ago, when most of Ontario had a green Christmas and the majority of snow came between February and April. "It's been a very active December. It is QUITE UNUSUAL to see such a blanket of snow that hits pretty much all of Ontario this early."
BRITISH COLUMBIA - An ice jam described as unstable and unpredictable forced more residents to leave their homes in Prince George, B.C., on Saturday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

VIRGINIA - RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES have been prevalent in the first weeks of December with highs reaching the low 70s. Records such as the 67-degree high from Dec. 10, 1995, were broken during the second week of the month. The area saw plenty of low temperatures in the weeks before the mid-December heat wave. The warm weather is attributed to a highly amplified pattern where the jet stream is diving deep into the southern United States, pumping warmer air from the Gulf area into the Northeast. "That's why it got so warm and humid here. We are setting VERY UNUSUAL RECORDS as far as the degree of warmth goes because the air mass that is usually around Texas this time of year is up here now." The pattern will likely not continue throughout the entire winter, but there will be a cyclic nature to the warm weather. "We're going to have changes every few days."

GEORGIA - Last Sunday's (12/9) 78-degree heat in the Fayette County area BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD set in 1966, and Monday's (12/10) sunshine pushed the mercury to 79 degrees, eclipsing the 77-degree record set in 1972. "It's certainly VERY UNUSUAL. We haven't had many warm spells like this in December before." Although intermittent 80-degree days aren't unheard of during the holidays, an extended warm spell like the one forecast this week is a bit RARE.
Weather records have been kept in Augusta for 118 years. And NEVER, in all that time, HAS THERE BEEN A DECEMBER 11TH AS WARM AS THIS YEAR.

NORTH CAROLINA - The UNUSUALLY WARM weather caused eight black bears that live on Grandfather Mountain in Avery County to come out of hibernation. They’re usually in their winter dens, sleeping away in the 20- and 30-degree December temperatures. But on Tuesday the temperature reached into the 60s. "They’re very lethargic, slow, and they looked like they were very tired.” Wildlife experts said the bears aren’t in any danger and will return to the dens when the temperatures go back down.
Wednesday's high of 79 degrees at Raleigh-Durham International Airport SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD of 74 degrees set in 1996.

TENNESSEE - On Thursday (12/13) for the second day in a row, Knoxville SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE. The record high of 71 degrees breaks the old record of 70 set in 1926.

ALABAMA - RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE and this has been the DRIEST YEAR TO DATE, with 27.24 inches of rainfall in Huntsville, far below 1914's previous record dry of 32.35 inches.

NEBRASKA - While December started out with an ice storm throughout Central Nebraska, it was preceded by ONE OF THE DRIEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD. During November, Grand Island received just a trace of precipitation, making it the third driest November in recorded history. Normal November precipitation is 1.41 inches for Grand Island. The wettest November on record in Grand Island was in 1983 with 3.77 inches of precipitation. November's dryness was a turnaround from the very wet period experienced through the first two or three weeks of October. Oct. 1 through 18, Grand Island received 3.91 inches of rain. Then the dry spell hit with 43 straight days of no measurable precipitation. For Aurora, a record-tying dry November followed a record-breaking wet October during which 7.38 inches of rain fell.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A food “lifeboat” - food and nutrition considerations in the event of a pandemic or other catastrophe - Early self-isolation and social distancing measures are known to be highly effective in influenza pandemics. In the event of a lethal pandemic, emergency measures such as closing schools, staying home with family and friends, and avoiding contact with other people (until all have been immunised) will be instrumental in avoiding infection. People employed in essential services or occupations may be required to reside at their workplace for the whole period of the crisis. To achieve this type of isolation, sufficient food of adequate quality and quantity must be available. Food supplies in the home will need to last as long as it takes for vaccine development and production. For ordinary seasonal influenza vaccines, there is a lag of 6 months or more after a new virus strain has first been discovered until a new vaccine is available for distribution. For weather-related catastrophes, food stockpiles might be required for much longer. A destabilised global climate, where small changes in atmospheric and ocean circulations have major consequences for temperature, rainfall, wind and storm patterns, may precipitate food stockpile dependence for several years. While long-term food stockpiling could be considered a governmental responsibility, we suggest that home stockpiling of food to last about 3 months might be done by individual households. See link for a list of foods and nutrition guidelines for survival rations for 10 weeks.

Friday, December 14, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The nice thing about being a celebrity is that when you bore people, they think it's their fault.
Henry Kissinger

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/13/07 -
6.1 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.9 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 TONGA
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

TAIWAN - A chasm created as a result of a strong earthquake has been deepened by natural forces and has created a "grand canyon" in central Taiwan. The Sept. 21, 1999 quake, measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, pushed the sandy rocks up, creating a ravine that is now 10-meters deep and 300-meters long. Five years ago the canyon was only five meters deep but rain has cut the chasm to 10 meters deep, and it is expected to become even more dramatic in the future. The ravine, called Ta'an River Canyon by geologists and locals, is located between the Taichung and Miaoli counties in the mountains of central Taiwan.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Deep ocean waves - British scientists have discovered waves that flow deep in the Pacific Ocean. Using ocean-going robots they detected the waves flowing eastwards almost a mile deep. The waves - known as Kelvin waves - are much larger, longer and slower than waves seen at the beach and are triggered by changes in the weather patterns above the tropical ocean. They were known to occur on or near the ocean's surface but the scientists were surprised to find them in the deep ocean. "We found that even at 1,500 metres there was a regular wave in temperature and saltiness, moving east every couple of months across the tropical Pacific." The finding may be important for predicting climate change and for weather forecasting in the tropics. The scientists believe the ocean waves are caused by the climatic variation known as the Madden Julian Oscillation - which may in turn be a trigger for an El Nino. "The Madden Julian Oscillation is one of the main sources of changes in weather and climate in the tropics. It makes a big difference to people's lives in places like Indonesia and India." "Oceanographers all over the world got together to deploy an armada of 3000 Argo floats and as a result there have been more observations of the ocean climate in the last few years than all the measurements put together since oceanography began as a science about 100 years ago."

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - A month after the last eruption, Mt Kelud continues to emit hot gases and lava and a lava dome is being created and rising in height. There is no certainty that the volcano will not erupt again. “This time Mt Kelud was like a slow moving disaster. As the volcano gradually built up in pressure during September and October, our medical team and other agencies had time to identify strategies to deal with mass casualties, including the best routes for transporting the injured, and the potential needs of evacuees for food, water, sanitation and primary health care.” (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 06S was 417 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.

OLGA - Dominican authorities reported 11 more deaths Thursday from Tropical Storm Olga, raising to 25 the death toll across the Caribbean.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
33 DEATHS BLAMED ON U.S. STORM AS IT MOVES EAST - A winter storm marched eastward Thursday after coating the U.S. Midwest in ice, where crews toiled to get electricity back on for hundreds of thousands of customers.

ALASKA - Anchorage is low on snow this year. This winter is agonizingly unpredictable. One resident said this winter is an eerie reminder of one in the early '80s, when his senior-year high school ski season in Anchorage was canceled due to lack of snow. It could happen again, he cautions. Residents who enjoy skiing, running, dog mushing and winter biking are beside themselves, tired of the tedious ice and feeling out of sync with the season. For many, the waning hours of daylight are synonymous with some of the best outdoors activities of the year. To be left with the darkness but none of the enjoyment of these winter pursuits has left them feeling shortchanged.

Thursday, December 13, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is inefficiency.
An efficient bureaucracy is the greatest threat to liberty.
Eugene McCarthy

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.0 & a 5.9 quake OFFSHORE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/12/07 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

Large earthquakes may broadcast warnings, but is anyone tuning in to listen? There may be a way to detect the footfalls of large earthquakes before they strike, alerting their potential victims a week or more in advance. A Stanford professor thinks a method to provide just such warnings may have been buried in the scientific literature for over 40 years. The professor emeritus of electrical engineering and of geophysics has evidence that big temblors emit a burst of ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic radio waves days or even weeks before they hit. The problem is that nobody is paying enough attention. Most electromagnetic radio waves come from space, generated in the upper atmosphere by the sun and then beamed down to Earth. Up until now, most of the focus for earthquake warnings and predictions has been on seismological studies, but no seismic measurements have ever shown this kind of warning before a big quake. This technique will probably only yield results for earthquakes of approximately magnitude 7 or higher, because background waves from the atmosphere will tend to mask any smaller signals. But these are the quakes people are most concerned about anyway, from a safety and damage point of view.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
ILLINOIS - 12/11/07 - in the town of Sheridan residents reported a loud 'boom' and rumbling earth. "Our front windows kind of rattled and we heard the boom. We thought it must have been thunder." "My uncle called and said his whole house was rattling." The shaking lasted about three seconds. "It sounded like a little low rumble of thunder." Sheridan police began receiving phone calls from confused residents about 11:30 a.m. Rumors circulated the rumbling was an earthquake, and one resident was continuously checking the U.S. Geological Survey's Web site for any indication of earthquake activity in the area. She found none. According to the Illinois State Geological Survey, there was no indication of an earthquake in Northern Illinois Tuesday. The last earthquake was a 2.5 recorded was on Nov. 28 in the southeastern portion of the state, along the Wabash River. Emergency management officials in La Salle County said the cause of the rumbling - which was felt as far as Seneca - is undetermined. "For the moment, we're going to list it as unknown." There were no reports of injuries or property damage. ( One commentator on this article said that her husband swore he felt the same thing and they are in Ottawa, Illinois.)

MUD WAVES -
Giant mud waves along the bottom of the Arctic Ocean are the latest mystery confronting polar researchers. The undulating piles of mud - some nearly 100 feet across - were created by currents along the ocean bottom. Such features are common along the sea floor in other parts of the world, but scientists previously believed the Arctic Ocean was too calm to create such structures. "The mud waves could be caused by tidal fluctuations. But that's really just speculation at this point." The icebreakers' sonar systems, which provided images of sediment layers as far as 1,000 feet below the sea floor, also provided evidence that huge glaciers once flowed along the bottom of the Arctic Ocean. In some places, the ice flows were heavy enough to create gouges a half-mile deep along the sea floor. Sonar images of these areas show parallel grooves where the glaciers once flowed, and boulders and debris left behind when the undersea ice retreated. Researchers are now studying sediment cores to better understand the Arctic's past and present, including the cause of the sea floor mud waves.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 06S was 492 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.
Tropical depression OLGA was 72 nmi NW of Kingston, Jamaica.

Tropical storm Olga, a RARE December cyclone, has caused major floods and landslides in the Caribbean, killing at least 13 people. Hardest-hit was the Dominican Republic, where 10 people died and thousands had to flee their homes. Heavy rains forced the authorities to release water from a near-capacity dam in the already swollen Yaque River. Some local residents later told a local radio station that they had not been warned of the water release, and officials acknowledged that this might have caused some of the deaths. "We have an emergency situation. It's a catastrophe." Two deaths were reported in Haiti, one in Puerto Rico. The storm also left tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans without power or water. The storm spared south-western areas of the Dominican Republic which were hit by Tropical Storm Noel six weeks ago. Olga has now weakened into a tropical depression as it moves west.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - floods have killed 12 people and left more than 20,000 homeless, and more rain is expected. The monsoon rains have cut off roads in several states including Kelantan and Terengganu in the east and Johor in the south. Johor was the worst hit, with 13,000 residents fleeing to higher ground. Plantation officials say heavy rains have slowed the harvest and transport of palm oil. Some economists warn the floods could also drive up food prices, similar to the situation early this year when the country was hit by the worst floods in nearly 40 years.

OREGON - Mud, trees, and debris nearly four-feet deep in some areas covered US Highway 30 about five miles west of Clatskanie, Oregon on Tuesday, reportedly burying at least two homes and carrying another away. Oregon Department of Transportation closed the highway about 10:30 a.m., Tuesday, with the major slide activity occurring about noon. Road detours have been established from the area, to and from Astoria. Recent storms caused a build-up of trees, debris, and mud. (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NORTHEASTERN U.S. - While millions of people in the nation's midsection tried to thaw out and get power restored, the Northeast was told to expect a double winter whammy starting today that should blanket the region in a foot or more of snow. The weather system that froze Midwest states was expected to arrive in the Northeast after the morning commute. A second storm making its way from the Pacific Northwest, through Texas and then southern Plains states on Friday, should reach the Northeast with rain by Saturday night. Along the way it could dump 12-18 inches of snow in some areas. By Saturday night, "heavy snow and blizzard conditions" are likely from central Pennsylvania, central New York and New England. Conditions Sunday were predicted to include moderate coastal flooding at high tide in New England, wind gusts up to 70 mph on the coast and heavy snow in northern New England.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' - Scientists have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the SMALLEST EVER EXTENT IN MODERN TIMES. Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of this team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections. "Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007. So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative." "The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse. There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting. In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."

Extra Sunshine Blamed for Part of Arctic Meltdown - While Earth’s rising temperatures fueled by global warming are certainly a factor in the Arctic melt, UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS THIS SUMMER also influenced how much of the sea ice melted. One result of these patterns was a decrease in cloud cover, which would have allowed more sunlight to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere and warm the Arctic ocean waters. New data from NASA satellites observing the western Arctic, where most of the ice loss occurred, showed a 16 percent decrease in cloud coverage this summer compared to 2006. "There’s been quite dramatic reductions of cloudiness this summer." The amount of sunlight from these clearer skies would have been enough to heat ocean waters by 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.4 degrees Celsius), or enough to melt 1 foot (0.3 meters) of sea ice. The result of this work highlights the importance of the influence of weather pattern variability on an already stressed-out Arctic system. "As Arctic sea ice thins, its extent is more sensitive to year-to-year variability in weather and cloud patterns."

ZAMBIA - weather conditions have grown more unpredictable in recent memory. Times and seasons have changed. Things are not what they used to be and what they ought to be, at least in recent times. The weather patterns have become so inconsistent with looming floods almost every rain season. Increasing temperatures, heating up of formally cold spots on the planet poses a challenge to the way people live now. In short, times and seasons have taken a sudden shift and this is definitely changing the way people live. Droughts, floods and the occurrences of diseases have become a major challenge in today's world. Gone are the days when winter was winter and summer was summer. It is just a different world with weird weather conditions. Like other southern African countries, Zambia has in recent times been affected by droughts and floods. Between December 2006 and March 2007, Zambia was among other southern African countries that experienced massive flooding. The flooding, which left hundreds dead in the region and around 1.25 million homeless, was said to be the worst in living memory. Forecasters said recently that flooding could be expected between January and March 2008 and predicted that almost the areas which were affected last season could experience the same problem this season. Zambia has experienced a number of disasters and the frequency of their occurrence and magnitude has been increasing over the years. For example, drought-induced crop failures between 1986 and 1996 occurred in six out of 10 farming seasons. Scarce national resources have had to be redirected from productive investments to relief and emergency operations.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A sound mind in a sound body is a short but full description of a happy state in this world.
John Locke

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/11/07 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.8 SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN
5.3 KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER REGION

Earthquake season - Recent research shows that in the Himalayan mountains, at least, there is an earthquake season. It's winter - December through February. "The seasonal variation in seismicity had been noticed years ago." Now, over a decade of data from GPS receivers and satellite measurements of land-water storage make it possible to connect the monsoon season with the frequency of earthquakes along the Himalaya front. The analysis also provides key insight into the timescale of earthquake nucleation in the region. In winter there are up to 150 earthquakes of magnitude three per month, and in summer, around 75. For magnitude four, the winter average is 16 per month, while in summer the rate falls to eight per month. Earlier studies suggested that seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure set off earthquakes. In the Himalaya, monsoon rains swell the rivers of the Ganges basin, increasing the pressure bearing down on the region. As the rains stop, the river water soaks through the ground and the built-up load eases outward, toward the front of the range. This outward redistribution of stress after the rains end leads to horizontal compression in the mountain range later in the year, triggering the wintertime earthquakes. Although Earth tides induce stress levels similar to what builds up during seasonal water storage, they only vary over a 12-hour period. The Himalayan signal shows that it is more likely that earthquakes are triggered after stress builds for weeks to months, which matches the timescale of seasonal stress variation in that region. "Seasonal variation has been reported in other places, but I don't know any other place where it is so strong or where the cause of the signal is so obvious."

CALIFORNIA - The Hayward fault, long dubbed a "tectonic time bomb," soon may have a more ominous moniker: "The most dangerous urban fault in America." Earthquake experts revealed at a major science conference in San Francisco Tuesday new disturbing information about the fault line that dissects heavily populated parts of Fremont, Hayward, Oakland and Berkeley, saying in a nutshell that it's bigger, badder and more worrisome than ever. Not only is the fault longer - and therefore capable of causing a bigger quake - than thought just a few years ago, there is now strong evidence that it's connected to the nearby Calaveras fault, raising concerns both faults could go off at the same time. The Calaveras was responsible for October's 5.4-magnitude quake near Alum Rock. Part of the Calaveras fault should probably be renamed the Hayward - a new computer model suggests the odds of a "Big One" rocking the Hayward are greater than 50-50 within the next few decades. The previous estimate was 27 percent. "Instead of having separate earthquakes on these faults, they could team up to have one big earthquake." With a potential magnitude of 7.2 or even 7.4, "we're talking about twice as big as the Loma Prieta earthquake - or even four times as big." The two faults actually connect just northeast of San Jose, about four miles below the Earth's surface.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - A FREAK wave is being blamed for the drowning of two students on a dangerous Surf Coast beach near Anglesea. As four friends waded in the shallows, a freak wave crashed on a woman and man and swept them 50m out to sea at 6.20pm on Monday. Their friends raised the alarm as the two flailed in the water and the undertow carried them away. "The students were only in ankle to knee deep water when a larger wave came through and the next thing they knew they were in a rip." The deaths take to 10 the number of people drowned over the past 30 days in Victoria, six more than at the same time last year. "Around the Victorian coast we've had 80 rescues in the last 30 days."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm OLGA was 50 nmi NNW of Barahona, Dominican Republic and 59 nmi ENE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. (The primary threat from Olga continues to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. These rains should begin to spread over eastern Cuba today.)

Atlantic Hurricane Season - “If you recall, the season started off on May 9 with Andrea...three weeks before the official beginning of Atlantic hurricane season." (Andrea was the first such storm in May since 1981.) With Olga forming in December, we really have a long tropical season. The hurricane season that just ended — or, rather, was supposed to have just ended — at the end of November produced 14 tropical storms, six of which became hurricanes. That’s about average. But the early and late activity might raise the question: could the warming effects of climate change create a longer hurricane season? The end date of the season has indeed shifted over time. It was originally October 31, then November 15, now November 30.

JAMAICA is likely to be affected today by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Olga, which yesterday drenched Puerto Rico, while the Dominican Republic was forced to reopen hurricane shelters more than a week after the official end of the hurricane season. "Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with above-normal waves along the north coast are likely Wednesday afternoon, decreasing on Thursday."
Subtropical Storm Olga moved over the Dominican Republic late Tuesday after blasting the northern coast of Puerto Rico, causing flashfloods and mudslides. The storm's reach extends out as far as 240 miles to the northeast and northwest of the center, with winds blowing as much as 40 miles an hour. "It's UNUSUAL to have a storm this late in the season. However, the conditions aren't ideal for the storm to strengthen any further, and it should dissipate in the next few days."

SNOW -
HAWAII - A persistent low pressure system, known as a Kona Low, brought several days of high winds, heavy rains and even blizzard conditions to parts of the Hawaiian Islands during the first week of December.

SPACE WEATHER-
Mammoths and great beasts peppered from space - Startling evidence has been found which shows mammoth and other great beasts from the last ice age were blasted with material that came from space. Eight tusks dating to some 35,000 years ago all show signs of having being peppered with meteorite fragments. The ancient remains come from Alaska, but researchers also have a Siberian bison skull with the same pockmarks. A calamitous event over North America that may have severely knocked back the populations of some species. "We think that there was probably an impact which exploded in the air that sent these particles flying into the animals. In the case of the bison, we know that it survived the impact because there's new bone growth around these marks." "If the particles had gone through the skin, they may not have made it through to vital organs; but this material could certainly have blinded the animals and severely injured them." The mammoth and bison remains all display small (about 2-3mm in size) perforations. Raised, burnt surface rings trace the point of entry of high-velocity projectiles; and the punctures are on only one side, consistent with a blast coming from a single direction. The sunken pieces are also magnetic, and tests show them to have a high iron-nickel content, but to be depleted in titanium. The ratios of different types of atoms in the fragments meant it was most unlikely they had originated on Earth. "People who collect these items today in Siberia and Alaska frequently find the tusks sticking out of the permafrost or eroding out of a riverbank. Maybe, these were tusks from dead animals that were just exposed on the surface, so when this thing blew up in the atmosphere, it would have peppered them. The date could really be anywhere from 13,000 to 35-40,000 years ago."

Remarkable new images of Earth's highest and most mysterious clouds have been captured by a Nasa spacecraft. Noctilucent, or "night-shining", clouds appear as thin bands in twilight skies, some 80km (50miles) above the surface. The phenomena appear to be increasing in frequency and extent. Scientists say their observations show how the clouds alter rapidly, hour by hour and day by day. They hope their studies will reveal the key triggers to the clouds' formation and why these triggers appear to be undergoing long-term change. "These clouds are getting brighter with time, they're seen more often and also they're being seen at lower latitudes. These are things we don't understand and they all suggest a possible connection to global change; and we need to understand that connection and what it means for the whole atmosphere." The clouds are also sometimes referred to as Polar Mesospheric Clouds. They form at high latitudes during summer months, in an extremely cold (-160C), dry (100,000 times drier than the Sahara Desert), and low-pressure (100,000 times less than at the Earth's surface) environment. The locations where the clouds form seem to rotate around the Arctic with a period of about five days. That rotation in longitude is also seen in the temperature data. Data also shows the clouds to be much brighter than was previously thought. There are UNPRECEDENTED observations, too, of the precursors to the clouds - small ice crystals just 5-8 nanometres (billionths of a metre) in size. In addition, AIM can see structures that were thought only to occur in "normal" clouds in the lowest few kilometres in the atmosphere. The team believes these features form and break up as a result of pressure waves coming up from below. "There are rings in the clouds that appear quite frequently. They're extremely variable. In just a few minutes, these holes are gone and others can appear. And some of these rings are huge - 300-400 miles across." Noctilucent clouds need cold temperatures, the presence of water vapour, and small dust particles around which the water can condense and freeze out to create ice crystals. Something must be changing in this "recipe" to alter the clouds' behaviour in recent years.

Energy source of northern lights found - Scientists think they have discovered the energy source of the spectacular color displays seen in the northern lights. New data from NASA's Themis mission found the energy comes from a stream of charged particles from the sun flowing like a current through twisted bundles of magnetic fields connecting Earth's upper atmosphere to the sun. The energy is then abruptly released in the form of a shimmering display of lights visible in the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In March, the satellites detected a burst of northern lights over Alaska and Canada. To scientists' surprise, the geomagnetic storm powering the auroras raced 400 miles in a minute across the sky. They estimated the storm's power was equal to the energy released by a magnitude 5.5 earthquake. Although researchers have suspected the existence of wound-up bundles of magnetic fields that provide energy for the auroras, the phenomenon was not confirmed until May, when the satellites became the first to map their structure some 40,000 miles above the Earth's surface. Scientists hope the satellites will record a geomagnetic storm next year that's now in the making, and end the debate about when the storms are triggered.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Bureaucracy defends the status quo long past the time when the quo has lost its status.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/10/07 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.0 NICARAGUA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.

VOLCANOES -
YELLOWSTONE - Giant Geyser erupts back to life - When Giant Geyser erupts, it shoots a roaring, splashing column of water and steam, often higher than its more predictable and famous cousin, Old Faithful. Problem is, Giant is fickle, going months, even longer than a year, without erupting before suddenly coming back to life. This is one of those times. Over the last two years, the erratic geyser in the Upper Geyser Basin along the Firehole River has been busy, erupting with A FREQUENCY NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1950s. In recent months, Giant has been erupting roughly every five to eight days. Surprised passers-by have been treated to eruptions 200 feet or higher. It's been perhaps the most talked-about feature among Yellowstone "geyser gazers" since it began its resurgence in August 2005. The cone looks like a "giant hollow tree stump with part of the side broken away to expose the 6-foot aperture through which its waters are discharged. "There's almost an infinite number of possibilities that could be causing the change in an individual geyser." (photo)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Mt Tavurvur in East New Britain province has begun emitting gas from a new vent that opened up during the weekend after five weeks of low level activity. The new vent was formed in the northeastern section of the crater rim as a result of a lava dome blocking the vent of the main crater floor. Lava accumulated at the main vent was about 20m high and 50m in diameter which was responsible for the continuous red glow that was visible at night. There was a slight increase in the seismic activity but was still at a low level. The low frequency earthquakes had increased from 20 for the three first days of this month to 85 as of last Saturday. Two high frequency earthquakes were also recorded. Since yesterday morning, the emission changed to occasional thick dark grey ash clouds. The ash clouds were rising to about 2km before drifting south of the volcano. Fine ash was expected on villages south of the caldera, roaring noises were heard and red glow around the crater was visible at night. The parameters observed showed that Tavurvur again was restless and the current activities mentioned were expected to continue. However, there was little indication of any build up that might lead to any major eruption like in October 2006. The public was warned to wear masks and protect themselves in dust affected areas and not to venture close to the volcano.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm OLGA was 49 nmi W of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Subtropical storm Olga formed over the Virgin Islands on Monday, and prompted a tropical storm warning for the Dominican Republic as it headed west over the Caribbean. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicated that an area of low pressure centered over the Virgin Islands had developed into the RARE post-season subtropical storm. Subtropical cyclones have some of the same characteristics as the more familiar tropical storms and hurricanes, but have a cooler core that can slow their development. At 10 p.m. EST (0300 GMT), Olga's center was about 55 miles (85 km) east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and about 300 miles (485 km) east of Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. The Dominican government had posted a tropical storm warning - indicating storm conditions were expected within 24 hours - along the country's north coast. The storm was moving west near 15 miles per hour (24 km) on a track that would bring its center near the coast of Puerto Rico later on Monday night and near or over the Dominican Republic today. Olga was a minimal tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 kph), barely above minimal tropical storm strength of 39 mph. It was expected to dump up to 6 inches (15 cm) of rain in some parts of Puerto Rico and up to 10 inches (25 cm) in isolated areas of Hispaniola, the island that is home to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The latest computer models had the storm moving over Hispaniola toward Jamaica and ultimately on a path to Central America. They agreed it would stay well south of the Gulf of Mexico. The six-month Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, but storms have formed in the region in every month of the year. Tropical storms thrive when the seas are warm, so December storms are UNUSUAL though not unprecedented in the Atlantic. Six tropical storms have strengthened into hurricanes in December since record-keeping began in 1851, including Epsilon in 2005, the busiest Atlantic season on record. That year also saw Tropical Storm Zeta form on Dec. 30.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AFGHANISTAN - Eight people were killed and as many others were missing after an avalanche engulfed a village in remote northeastern Afghanistan. Fifty people were initially trapped by the avalanche, the first this winter in the remote and mountainous northeastern province of Badakhshan, but most were rescued by police and villagers. Badakhshan, a mountainous region on the border with China and Tajikistan, sees frequent natural disasters such as floods and avalanches. Dozens of people were killed in such incidents last year.

U.S. - A deadly ice storm sweeping through the US Plains left more than 400,000 people without power as temperatures plunged and was blamed for at least 14 deaths. The icy blast downed tree limbs and power lines, leaving more than 311,000 people without power in Oklahoma and shutting down electricity service to more than 90,000 people in Missouri, more than 10,000 people in Illinois and more than 4000 in Kansas. Conditions were expected to only worsen this afternoon, according to the National Weather Service, which predicted the potential for damaging ice accumulations as a cold air mass stalls over the region. Ice storm warnings were issued from Texas up through Oklahoma and Kansas and east across Missouri into Illinois, with up to an inch of ice accumulation possible in some areas. Iowa and Arkansas were also affected.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

ANTARCTICA'S penguin population has slumped because of global warming as melting ice has destroyed nesting sites and reduced their sources of food. The Antarctic peninsula was warming five times faster than the average in the rest of the world, affecting four penguin species. "Now it seems these icons of the Antarctic will have to face an extremely tough battle to adapt to the UNPRECEDENTED rate of climate change." A report says sea ice covers 40 per cent less area than it did 26 years ago off the West Antarctic Peninsula, leading to a fall in stocks of krill, the main source of food for the chinstrap and gentoo penguins. On the northwestern coast of the Antarctic peninsula, where warming had been fastest, populations of adelie penguins had dropped 65 per cent over the past 25 years. Warmer temperatures and stronger winds mean the penguins had to raise their chicks on increasingly thinner sea ice which tends to break off early while many eggs and chicks have been blown away before they were able to survive on their own.

AUSTRALIA - Crocodiles too hot to lay their eggs - pregnant crocs are in need of some relief in the Top End. Their reproductive processes were triggered by heavy downpours in early November but soaring temperatures and a lack of follow up rain has forced the expecting mums to delay nesting. "The rain dried up and the croc tends only to nest when there is a lot of rain, and they will wait until then. I am not sure what will happen, they are significantly late ... If they are carrying the eggs inside them waiting for a nice rainy day it could possibly effect their embryonic development. We don't want them to stay in there too long." 40 breeding pairs at the Darwin croc park normally started to lay their eggs in November. But this year there had only been one. "It's the same for crocodiles everywhere and we probably only see something like this happen every 10 years or so. What we're really worried about is that when the egg is finally laid ... (the embryo) might have attached to the wrong side of the egg and drown under the yolk." Other concerns are that there will be infertilities, early embryonic deaths, abnormalities and a reduction in the number of females who nest at all. "We are not sure what will happen. We are not sure whether nesting will be delayed and normal or whether the nesting will be delayed and there will be a change in the development of the embryos." Crocodiles normally carry their eggs for a few weeks before laying them in a vegetation mound to incubate for three months. The outcome of the STRANGE WEATHER PATTERNS would be known come hatching time in February. "By February we will be learning something either way."

ODD -
Shark attacks kangaroo? - Stories of shark attacks at beaches around Australia are not uncommon, but from Geelong there comes a report of what a witness has described as the "most bizarre thing" ever seen: a shark attacked a kangaroo. The witness has said he saw a 2-3m shark leap out of the water at Torquay and attack the unfortunate roo as it paddled out to sea. "The shark came right out of the water." Kangaroos can swim and will do so if they feel threatened and see the water as an escape route. Kangaroos often seek refuge in dams and rivers if they are being chased by dogs. Whiptail wallabies in Queensland have been known to swim out to off-shore islands but they have never heard of eastern grey kangaroos - the main local kangaroo species - swimming in the ocean. "It sounds like VERY UNUSUAL behaviour." Certain diseases could cause strange behaviour in kangaroos.

Monday, December 10, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Much talking is the cause of danger.
Silence is the means of avoiding misfortune.
The talkative parrot is shut up in a cage.
Other birds, without speech, fly freely about.
Saskya Pandita

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/9/07 -
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 FIJI REGION
7.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

The massive earthquake registering 7.6 on the Richter scale in the South Pacific was felt more than 1,000km away in New Zealand. Seismologists at GNS Science in Wellington said the quake was officially designated “major,” being one of only an average of 18 measuring between 7 and 7.9 recorded every year around the world. Epicentre of the quake was in the geologically unstable Kermadec Ridge, a series of volcanic islands halfway between New Zealand and Tonga. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii said there were no indications of a tsunami, probably because the quake was centred at a depth of 188 kilometres below the surface. There were no reports of damage in New Zealand.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
IRELAND - Storm waves in Kerry cause severe damage to lifeboat station - The stormy weather has caused up to ten thousand euro worth of damage to a lifeboat station in Kerry. A FREAK WAVE hit the boathouse of Ballybunion Sea and Cliff Rescue in the early hours of Sunday morning. The almost five foot wave blew the doors off their hinges and water flooded the building, damaging essential equipment.

VOLCANOES -
YEMEN - Yemeni soldiers were evacuated from Huneish Island over the weekend on fears it could be affected by volcanic activity in the region. The island is 75 kilometres from Al-Tair Mountain Island in the Red Sea, which has witnessed several quakes in recent months. Marine forces are carrying out continuous patrols and will ban any ships approaching the island.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMAN was 1172 nmi NNE of Auckland, New Zealand.

Cyclone Daman which was reduced to a storm has finally turned into a tropical depression. Several parts of Fiji will still expect moist conditions as the system weakens as the depression passes out of the region.

A weather system off Puerto Rico has the potential to become a tropical storm, forecasters said Sunday, a little more than a week after the Atlantic hurricane season ended. At 10:30 p.m. EST the system was about 425 miles east of Puerto Rico. It was moving west at about 15 to 20 mph and was expected to continue that general motion over the next day or two. It could become a tropical or subtropical storm during the next 24 hours. Tropical storms have winds of at least 39 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season 'ended' Nov. 30.

Hurricane forecaster William Gray issued his 2008 outlook Friday, predicting another active season that will include seven Atlantic hurricanes - three of them qualifying as "major." The report also puts the odds of a major hurricane slamming into the U.S. Gulf or East Coast next year at 60%, slightly above the 52% average over the past century. Gray and his team see 13 named tropical storms taking shape in the Atlantic. A tropical storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane when its winds hit 74 mph, moving up the intensity scale from 1 to 5. Major hurricanes, Categories 3 through 5, pack winds of 111 mph or more. The 2005 season was one of the most active and deadly hurricane seasons on record, with a staggering 27 named storms, nearly three times the 9.6 average seen over the past 50 years. Gray's team predicted nine named Atlantic basin hurricanes in 2007, but there were only six. Their 2006 forecast was also for nine hurricanes, nearly twice the five that actually formed. Meteorologists explain the recent decline in hurricane activity on cooler ocean temperatures and the development of a high-altitude wind shear that shaves the top off the powerful storm cells that typically form off the coast of West Africa, robbing them of energy as they meander westward across the Atlantic. Despite the slowdown in severe tropical storm activity, Gray's team insists we are still in an active hurricane cycle.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Hailstones the size of cricket balls battered a path of destruction across western Sydney and up the NSW central coast Sunday afternoon when a violent thunderstorm swept over the city. The Bureau of Meteorology described the storm as "particularly dangerous" and warned people to stay indoors. Several people were injured by hailstones in the storm, which struck at about 4:30pm. Blacktown, in Sydney's outer western suburbs, was particularly hard hit, with one street recording 40 homes with broken windows. Blacktown residents were desperately patching up their broken homes as more rain clouds approached. "It started off small, then suddenly it picked up in ferocity and we had hailstorms the size of cricket balls. It was like Armageddon. You just don't expect to have things that big coming down from the sky." "It was like a bomb going off for 20 minutes straight." "Bang, bang, bang. It was so loud for so long I couldn't believe it."

WASHINGTON - why was Lewis County hit so hard by flooding this week? Federal experts say a FREAK OF NATURE may be to blame. They emphasize they're still investigating, but they say they're zeroing in on a small but high-intensity rain event that fueled the Chehalis River.They also can't rule out some sort of "x" factor - an unexplained event that accelerated the flood waters. The mild-mannered Chehalis River was transformed earlier this week. "It's a small river and it turns into a monster." One gauge recorded a RECORD RIVER FLOW of 385,000 gallons, the equivalent of 120 dump trucks per second. "This is an EXTRAORDINARILY RARE event. A huge event. Double the previous record." The river rose nearly 30 feet, apparently destroying the gauge near Doty and depositing logs on Highway 6. Experts say a mini super storm parked itself over the area where the Chehalis forms, with an intensity perhaps UNPRECEDENTED in lower elevations. The rain pounded the area of southwest Lewis County known as the Willapa Hills - the headwaters of the Chehalis River. Nearly 9 inches fell there in one 24-hour period. By comparison, just a third of that amount fell on Centralia. The rainfall gorged the Chehalis, with the water rising so fast many people were certain that levies broke. The Corps of Engineers says it's still investigating, but has not found evidence that any of its four river levies were breached.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - An ice storm slickened roads and sidewalks, grounded hundreds of flights, and cut power to tens of thousands Sunday in a swath from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes as even colder weather threatened. The wintry weather was expected to continue through midweek, and ice storm warnings stretched from Texas to Pennsylvania. "Tomorrow may be even more of a dilemma than today because we're going to get even a little bit more colder." Six traffic deaths were blamed on icy roads in Oklahoma. Roads along much of the state were considered slick and hazardous by the Oklahoma Department of Transportation, with two sections of Interstate 40 being closed temporarily. More than 130,000 customers lost power in Missouri, Oklahoma, Illinois and Kansas. Some communities in Missouri reported ice as thick as three-quarters of an inch.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

GEORGIA - Warm air from the Gulf of Mexico brought RECORD-BREAKING Florida-like temperatures to the Piedmont region Sunday. Another record was predicted to fall today. "We had a FREAK high [Sunday]." The mercury rose to 76 degrees, five degrees higher than the previous record high set in 1978. The weather service is projecting a high of 75 today, which would break the Dec. 10 record of 74 set in 1972.

TENNESSEE - A high of 73 on Sunday BROKE THE 1952 RECORD.

PHILIPPINES - the weird weather has begun to affect in subtle ways the lives of rural folk in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, particularly those rebuilding their lives after being displaced by the separatist war. In the past, farmers could tell when the rains would fall, how the winds would blow. "The rains used to come during these last months of the year, but recently, we have had warm nights. During the day you can see the heat waves rising as if we are in the middle of summer. And if it rains, the floods will wash out everything in the fields." The mild monsoons used to occur during Ramadan in September and October. This time, the wind shifts were unpredictable. Increases of 1 degree Celsius at nighttime during the growing season are well within the predicted range of global warming, and will reduce global rice yields by about 10 percent every year. Black bugs, which began to appear in the mid-1980s, have become more deadly and numerous. "They suck the juice out of the rice stalks and so the grains will not ripen." The bugs also seem to have developed resistance to the pesticides. "They seem to be wiser than human beings now. They hide within the cracks of the earth and wait till the next rains come." "The Alip (River) that flows through Makat has always been a 'moveable' river. It changes direction every seven years." But in the past two years, it has become so unpredictable. Flood waters from the denuded Dagoma Mountain Range, where the headwaters are located, used to reach here in an hour. Now, it takes just about 15 minutes for the rampaging waters to come.

Sunday, December 9, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Any sufficiently advanced bureaucracy is indistinguishable from molasses.
Unknown

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there was a 7.9 quake SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS. No reports of damage and no tsunami because the quake was very deep.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/08/07 -
5.4 TANZANIA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
12/07/07 -
5.5 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.1 MYANMAR
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.8 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

BRAZIL - A 4.9 earthquake shook two small towns in southeastern Brazil early Sunday, killing a child and injuring six other people. Some 60 people were evacuated from their homes because of fear the quake may have caused structural damage. Six house collapsed as a result of the quake. Residents in the region have been reporting small tremors over the past two months.

NORTH CAROLINA - A construction seam in the Lake Lure dam is leaking more than usual after a 3.1 earthquake shook the area Friday morning. Town and state engineers evaluated the leak Saturday morning, determining that it was not “an immediate threat.”
A loud noise many people heard at the beginning of the quake made people think it might have been something other than an earthquake, but experts say it's not uncommon for there to be a loud noise at the beginning or end of a quake. The most damaging natural disaster in South Carolina before Hurricane Hugo in 1989 was the earthquake of 1886. On Aug. 31, 1886, the magnitude 7.3 earthquake near Charleston killed more than 100 people and destroyed about $5 million worth of property.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Post-tsunami changes in sea behaviour and trawler depredations have left more than 16,000 fishermen in 45 villages along the Guntur shoreline high and dry. The fish and prawn catch is below par and the competition from the mechanised trawlers is stiff. The fisher-folk used to earn close to Rs 200 at the end of the day. Today, getting even one half of this is difficult. According to the fisher-folk, post-tsunami, the marine life has been drastically affected and the catch is too meagre. Several popular fish varieties have become scarcer these days.

VOLCANOES -
YEMEN - Jabl al-Tair volcano activity may threaten regional navigation - The Ministry of Fisheries Wealth sent a warning to all fishermen not to get close to the Island of Jabl al-Tair due to the reawakening of the volcano that erupted last Monday. Sources say that this is a precautionary measure aimed at ensuring the safety of the fisherman and nearby citizens. “The Ministry of Fisheries Wealth announced in a circulation note to all fishermen to report any dangerous developments they may have witnessed to the office in order to take the necessary actions and inform the concerned parties.” The Center also reported an earthquake last Monday at 6:04 pm centered in the Red Sea which measured 2.7 on the Richter scale. Another smaller earthquake measuring 1.9 on the Richter scale was detected at 11:46am on Tuesday. An additional two earthquakes were also reported in al-Beidha governorate, one on Monday at 10:30 pm and the second on Tuesday at 4:49 am. Based on the data collected, these earthquakes appear to be a natural result of pressure under the sea bed being released gradually. The Jabl al-Tair Volcano, located 100 km northeast of Houdeida, is in a state of continual activity, but this September 29 eruption proved more severe than usual. Jabl al-Tair volcano is one of the natural threats whose impact would be felt by all surrounding countries. “There is a great need to set up a regional center for monitoring earthquakes and other natural disasters in order to be able to take early action, as THE SAFE AREA IS SHRINKING and this increases the risks, especially for regional navigation." Experts and geologists say that the reawakening of the volcano is the result of gases being emitted from deep inside the earth’s crust via rifts created when the volcano first erupted.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMAN was 1172 nmi NNE of Auckland, New Zealand.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert has been cancelled for central and southern Tonga as Tropical Cyclone Daman has weakened overnight and is expected to curve southwest away from Tonga today. A strong wind warning remains in force for all Tongan waters.
The powerful cyclone packing winds of up to 250 kilometers (155 miles) per hour pounded some small islands in northern Fiji, but missed heavily populated areas in the South Pacific nation as it swung away to the southeast. Worst hit on the northern Fiji island was Cikobia, which bore the full brunt of the storm as it passed over it during the night. Fiji disaster management officials lost all contact with Cikobia as the cyclone hit the island with winds at its center gusting to 250 kph (155 mph). Cikobia, a small northern island, has a population of about 100 people. "There's a lot of destruction of houses, vegetation and garden crops." People in the Lomaiviti and Lau island groups and on Vanua Levu - Fiji's second main island - escaped serious damage and there have been no reports of injury so far. Daman sideswiped the Labasa area of northern Vanua Levu, landslides sparked by heavy rain closed some highways, flooding hit low-lying areas, and gusting winds destroyed trees.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - A thunderstorm has swept across Sydney, the Illawarra and Central Coast, lashing the area with huge hailstones up to seven centimetres in diameter, along with flash floods. The storm was expected to move out to sea following the deluge of rain, hail and damaging winds on the Central Coast. "There's been quite a swath of large hail. (We've had) lots of reports of hail of golf-ball size, we've had a few reports of hail up to seven centimetres in a couple of places."

CANADA - Campground obliterated as slide triggers 'tsunami' - Environmentalists fear Chehalis Lake's fish population could be endangered by mud, silt and the effects of stress. A rock slide into Chehalis Lake that buried an entire campground with a tsunami-like wave this week could endanger the area's fish population. "The concerns for mud and silt around fish is that it is well-known to increase stress in fish." Stress can cause serious health problems like fin rot, and silt can make it harder for fish to find food. No one is believed to have been injured in the slide, which damaged two campgrounds and "obliterated" one. The incident likely occurred during Monday's rain storm when part of a nearby mountain slid into the western end of the lake. Since then, about two hectares of debris has been pushed to the eastern end of the lake, where it meets the Chehalis River, a tributary of the Harrison River. The water appeared to have rocked back and forth on either side of the lake, pulling trees and brush into the lake. "A big chunk of a side of a mountain let go. The wall of water that was pushed up out of the lake was at least 30 to 40 feet high as it came ashore at the west end of the lake." Many large trees, including Douglas firs and cedars, have been ripped out by the water. "The water colour has certainly been affected and a tremendous amount of wood debris has collected at the east end of the lake." The magnitude of the damage was impressive along six kilometres of the lake, where the water appeared to have swept back and forth. "If [the debris] all decided to come down the Chehalis River at once, it could cause a damaging effect on the [nearby] community." It is too soon to know the extent of damage to the area, since it depends on the duration and size of the slide. (photo)

U.S. Northwest Coast - Once in a great while, a tropical storm can make it close to San Diego, but none on record has made it farther north. But this past week, the Pacific Northwest experienced a storm that caused more destruction, death and hardship than many hurricanes have. At least eight people have died in Washington and Oregon from the storm, with damage expected to reach the billions of dollars from flooding and high winds. Washington's governor said THE TREE DAMAGE WAS LIKE NOTHING ELSE he had seen since Mount St. Helens erupted in 1980. The same storm brought less rain than expected to Southern California on Friday but was forecast to bring a swath of rain and snow to the nation's midsection over the weekend and early next week. A strong northern Pacific low pressure system can be a fearsome beast. While never as intense as the worst hurricanes, the storms can have winds equal to many weak to moderate hurricanes, and those winds can cover a much greater area. Late fall and early winter in the northern Pacific is a prime time to see storms like this develop, as the jet stream dips farther and farther southward after its summer retreat into the high northern latitudes. That allows cold air from the North Pole to sink farther south and collide with warm, moist subtropical air from the central Pacific. The Pacific Northwest typically experiences one or two pretty large storms of this nature each year, but this last one was particularly severe, owing some of its strength to two typhoons whose remnants were pulled into the developing system. Thousands of people remained without power on Friday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Most of South Australia's Kangaroo Island has been declared a danger zone as the battle continues to bring three large bushfires under control.

Demand for palm oil sets off wave of deforestation and the burning of tropical forests in Sumatra. "Everything is burning here. Everything." Everywhere in Indonesia, the forest is disappearing at a breathtaking rate. The environmental organization Greenpeace estimates 300 football fields are destroyed every hour. The reason is palm oil, which is in demand in part because it is added to diesel fuel to make it more environmentally friendly. "When the trees are gone, the ground temperature increases to as high as 70 degrees." The slightest spark is enough to cause a huge fire. And it has emerged as an enormous climate issue for Indonesia. Because of the destruction of the forests Indonesia has become the third-largest source of carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activity, behind the US and China. The cutting, burning and processing of the trees also exposes the forest floor, which in its natural overgrown state stores an enormous amount of CO2 - six to nine times more than a typical forest. Local village community councils may plant everything possible to help the ground recover. But nothing thrives on the dry and scorched turf.

KENYA - authorities are battling swarms of locusts, which are reported to have damaged crops. It is the FIRST TIME IN 45 YEARS such large numbers have been seen in Kenya. The ravenous creatures - which are capable of stripping vegetation in minutes - are laying eggs in remote areas in the north-east of the country. If the locusts are successful in laying eggs, then the threat lies in them hatching as hoppers in about two weeks. They would then turn into adult insects - which if uncontrolled are capable of devastating any vegetation they alight on. The insects can eat their own weight in food every day, which means a single swarm can consume as much food as several thousand people. Locust swarms have been spotted in many areas in the Horn of Africa, but it is the first time since the early 1960s that large concentrations have moved into Kenya. Africa experienced devastating swarms in 2004 when they swept across northern and western Africa, leaving 60% of Mauritania's population - 400,000 people - needing food aid.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

'Human-to-human' bird flu fears - The father of a Chinese man who died of bird flu is also infected, raising fear of transmission between humans.

A German study has found that young children living near nuclear power plants have a significantly higher risk of developing leukaemia and other forms of cancer.

Friday, December 7, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Why worry about getting blown to bits by an asteroid when your friendly neighborhood super-volcano can do the job using indigenous materials? Remember folks, when it comes to wiping out civilizations, think locally!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/6/07 -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
5.2 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

CARIBBEAN - The National Emergency Management Organisation Thursday sought to put to rest rumours in St. Lucia that the region was about to be hit by another powerful earthquake, triggering a tsunami. The rumours arose following a number of aftershocks from last Thursday’s 7.3 magnitude tremor - the latest of which occurred here Wednesday morning. The rumours were sufficiently widespread to warrant a reaction. "It appears that the aftershocks of last week’s earthquake are not just occurring in the form of tremors, but psychologically it seems the tremor has left its mark on the St. Lucian population. Many are still on edge and the slightest shake-up causes panic...The fact that we have had two significant tremors, one each on Tuesday and on Wednesday, has not helped as word was all over the island that an earthquake or aftershock should be expected within hours. This resulted in a flurry of activity, with some parents leaving work to pick up their children at school."
In Barbados, panic also ripped across the country for a few hours, in response to rumours of a second earth tremor. There was no official closure of schools but some allowed children to leave at least an hour early, while calls flooded media houses and emergency agencies for most of the morning and early afternoon. Most callers expressed fear about a shaking in St Lucia but checks with the Department of Emergency Management and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency proved it was merely a rumour, based on the aftershock felt in St Lucia, St Vincent and Dominica.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - The biggest oceanic swell in nearly two years pummeled Southern California's shoreline Wednesday, causing minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas and creating epic conditions for surfers trying to match their skills against powerful waves with faces 12 feet and taller. The enormous swell, which peaked early Wednesday and dropped significantly by midday Thursday, was UNUSUAL in its power and focus. Its westerly direction allowed it to slip around Point Conception and in between the Channel Islands that so often protect many Southern California beaches from the Pacific's most ferocious waves. Waves were steam-rolling their way into every nook and cranny along the coast - most of which rarely see surf of any decent size. The super-sized waves snapped surfboards, tore apart board leashes and bruised surfers egos with punishing regularity. In Santa Monica there were 8- to 10-foot swells, triple the typical size of waves at this popular spot. At Ventura Pier, even the most experienced surfers were getting swept into the pier's pilings, entangled by their boards and leashes. Wednesday's big waves began days ago and hundreds of miles away in a storm that developed in the middle of the North Pacific above Hawaii. It was shaping up to be just another big storm until it pulled moisture from a tropical depression near the Philippines. "It was like throwing dynamite into a campfire. All of that warm moisture mixing with the cold air supercharged the storm." The result was hurricane-force winds that built up wave heights of nearly 50 feet. Those waves slammed into Northern California on Tuesday. Wave heights of 50 feet or more claimed the life of one big-wave rider. The wave heights diminished a bit en route to Southern California, because of frictional drag along the seafloor. The last swell of this size to hit Southern California arrived Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2005. "Another Big Wednesday." Surfers marveled at how many times the biggest swells arrive on "Big Wednesdays."
In North County, RECORD-HIGH SURF pummeled the coast on Wednesday. The National Weather Service put a high surf advisory in place through Sunday, warning that the waves could bring dangerous rip currents and flooding to low-lying areas. Beachgoers were advised to avoid fishing or watching waves immediately off the coast, because large waves can come up suddenly.
A pair of wave experts disagree about whether the storm and the resulting waves are normal or not. The head of the Ocean Engineering Research Group at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said he suspects that the West Coast has gotten more big wave events in the last decade than the decade preceding it. "The waves are getting very big in places that they typically don't in wintertime." But not all expert wave- and weather-watchers agree that this storm or these waves are atypical. A forecaster at the National Weather Service's San Diego office said the storm pushing this week's waves ashore is "totally normal." "We've actually been missing them the last few years, and now we're finally back to the normal pattern." The storm was generated from a storm north-northeast of Hawaii on Sunday and Monday and was unrelated to the storm that pummeled Washington and Oregon earlier this week, which is supposed to bring smaller waves and rain to Southern California by Friday. The location of the storm is the result of the jet stream, the wind current that encircles the globe and drives most of North America's weather. Its changing course dictates where the storms that send waves originate.

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - The Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica began discharging vapor and gas on Wednesday that raised an alarm to the experts for a potential eruption, however, no evacuations have been ordered yet. "Reports from neighbors located at the foot of the volcano indicate that a thick white column of gas and vapor has begun rising from the volcano's crater." Witnesses have been reporting burning fields near Turrialba, located within 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the country's capital, San Jose. Turrialba had been closely monitored by officials since May due to a mild increase in its seismic activity. Increase in activity started in August 2006, from which gas discharge, small landslides and dead vegetation were reported from locations nearby the crater. The volcano had been dormant since its last eruption in 1866.

YEMEN - The Earthquake Observation Center recorded a slight earthquake in the Red Sea Monday evening, measuring 2.7 on the Richter scale. It also observed another 1.9 magnitude earthquake in the same area on Wednesday. Two other slight earthquakes were recorded on Monday and Wednesday in Al-Baidha. The announcement came after the volcano on Jabal Al-Tair, a tiny island on the Red Sea, erupted again on Monday. Officials said this eruption was strong, with lava shooting high in the air. Geologists linked the eruption to fissures on the island that were caused by the previous eruption on Sept. 30. They added that the eruption would take a long time to subside. According to the Global Volcanism Program database for northeast Africa and the Red Sea, the area currently contains 69 Holocene volcanoes and 2 Pleistocene volcanoes with thermal activity, including Jabal Al-Tair, Jabal Zubair, Zuqar and Hanish, all located within Yemen’s marine borders. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMAN was 1294 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

FIJI - Authorities in Fiji hold grave fears for people living in the country's second largest island after tropical Cyclone Daman strengthened overnight. The category three cyclone, which has so far caused only heavy rain in outlying islands, is expected to hit Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu, today. Winds were strengthening and Daman has become a category four storm. The storm has an average wind speed of 155km/h with gusts of up to 220km/h. Houses in rural areas aere not strong enough to survive strong winds. "We are just praying it will move away from Vanua Levu and move into the ocean. We don't need this sort of thing happening here. The worst is still to come. We are anticipating strong winds and heavy rain."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - floods force evacuation of 4,585 people - in worst-hit Johor state in the south, 3,738 evacuees were sheltering at 42 flood relief centers and three major roads had closed. In central Pahang state, 662 people have been evacuated to flood relief centers, two landslides were reported and two roads were under up to a meter (three feet) of water. In northern Kelantan state, floods overwhelmed several villages and 185 people were evacuated. The Meteorological Department warned of more heavy rains over Johor state, especially its northern regions, until late Saturday. Heavy rain warnings are also in force in Pahang state until Sunday.

PHILIPPINES - The rains that fell on Metro Manila and some provinces in the country’s eastern part on Thursday were induced by the tail end of the cold front. “There’s no typhoon.” Light rains fell over Metro Manila from dawn until noon, in what some people thought was another weather disturbance. The cloudiness and rain showers will persist until Saturday, before giving way to good weather, until another entry of the cold front enters in the country. The cold front, a weather system that forms clouds and induces rain during cold months, is the result of a convergence of cold, dry air from the northeasterly winds and the relatively warm, moist air from the easterly winds. “For as long as we have the northeast monsoon, the cold front is here to stay.” The northeast monsoon (amihan) swept down from the plateaus of mainland Asia to the Philippines in late October, bringing cold weather. It is expected to peak in January and February. Meanwhile, fishermen have been warned of moderate to high waves. With the country still experiencing the rains so close to the end of the year, the Department of Health has warned the public to remain on alert against dengue. While dengue cases have been on a downtrend, people should not be complacent, due to the continuing rains.
Weathermen issued a landslide alert over Eastern Visayas and Mindanao yesterday as a result of the continuing rain brought by the cold front's tail end.

AUSTRALIA - Unanderra was the epicentre of extreme storms and flash floods that hit parts of NSW yesterday morning. The surprise downpours dumped more water on parts of Wollongong within a few hours than normally would land in the whole of December. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded 127mm by 9am at its Mt Kembla flood alert station, and 102mm at O'Briens Rd in Figtree. This was for the 24 hours up until 9am. The ONE-IN-25 YEAR EVENT stranded people on the way to work, cut power to homes and messed up mobile phone reception.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

TISTAN DA CUNHA - Britons living in what is described as the remotest community in the world are seeking help after the outbreak of an acute virus. Many of the 271 British citizens living on the volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha, in the south Atlantic, have developed severe breathing problems. They need to ensure that their current medical supplies do not run out. The islanders are being affected by what appears to be an outbreak of viral-inducted asthma, which causes severe breathing problems. The volcanic island has no airstrip, making getting medicines there difficult. Tristan da Cunha is situated 2,800 km west of Cape Town, South Africa, and is part of a small group of islands. It was at one time on the main trading route between Europe and the Indian Ocean, but the small community living there is now extremely isolated. The island is famous for a mass evacuation to Southampton in the 1960s after a volcano erupted.

UGANDA - The number of people in Uganda suspected of being infected with a new strain of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever virus has grown to 93, and 22 have died, including four healthcare workers. The outbreak was first reported on Nov 30, a new subtype of the virus was found to be sickening people in Bundibugyo district in western Uganda. Four Ebola subtypes have previously been identified: Zaire, Sudan, Cote d'Ivoire, and Reston. Health officials in Uganda say the new Ebola strain seems to have a low death rate when compared with other lethal Ebola strains. The new strain has a 22% death rate compared with 50% to 90% for the other deadly strains. However, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said it's too early to say if the new Ebola strain is milder. A milder Ebola strain might be problematic, because it could spread unnoticed and be confused with other diseases. Patients have had some UNUSUAL initial symptoms, such as vomiting, with the new Ebola strain.

Thursday, December 6, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Anyone who keeps the ability to see beauty never grows old.
Franz Kafka

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/5/07 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 DOMINICA REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS
5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.1 FLORES SEA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMAN was 1340 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

FIJI - The Northern Division is on high alert as Tropical Cyclone Daman moves in a southwesterly direction. Cyclone Daman is a Category Two storm. “(There has been) damage to minor, weak structures, temporary ones, ones where people have not built to specifications, sheds and crops. Hopefully the cyclone will downgrade to category one when it reaches us but that remains to be seen.” Daman is expected to hit the Fiji group later this evening. (satellite photo)
The tropical cyclone was bearing down on the South Pacific island nation of Fiji on Thursday, with officials forecasting it may hit the capital Suva on Friday. Officials have warned residents to evacuate low-lying areas as they expect flooding and damage when Cyclone Daman, with winds up to 96 mph, hits the main island of Viti Levu. The category 2 cyclone, currently buffeting island tourist resorts northwest of Fiji, is forecast to move across Viti Levu overnight in a southeasterly direction. "For the whole country, expect widespread rain becoming frequent with heavy falls and squally thunderstorms. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected, also flooding of low-lying areas, rivers and streams."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALASKA - Bad weather has hampered the search for a helicopter that vanished in Alaska as it carried a woman to an Anchorage hospital. The LifeGuard helicopter was last heard from almost 40 minutes after it took off from Cordova at 4:40 p.m. Monday. The pilot may have been caught in unexpected nasty weather. "It was a VERY, VERY, VERY UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENON. A lot of times the weather will come off the Gulf of Alaska; it will have a direction it will move in from. But this didn't come from a specific area. All of a sudden a cloud formed over the mountains, it descended and it started snowing. IT CREATED ITS OWN WEATHER. It was actually VERY SCARY." Poor visibility and blowing snow on Tuesday made the search difficult.

WASHINGTON - Residents of Aberdeen were in danger of being cut off from the rest of the state, since the rising Chehalis River could block the only way in or out. The Chehalis River reached flood stage there early Wednesday morning. Combined with the high ocean tides, it could lead to flooding in Eastern Grays Harbor County and even in downtown Aberdeen. In the meantime, Grays Harbor County's power system was wiped out Tuesday evening and the big BPA line that feeds the county was down. Winds of up to 81 miles per hour tore up the coast and blocked virtually all highways with trees and downed power lines. Power could be out for more than a week. "You could hear glass breaking and metal flying down the street, and everything flying off all the buildings." Even the sturdiest of power line derricks couldn't stand up the winds that blew through Monday. Typical wooden power lines were snapped like twigs and crews are just getting started to get them cleared and replaced. The winds blew down entire groves of trees and left several communities with no food or gasoline services. Aberdeen police had to call in a fuel truck to fill up their cruisers. It's being called THE WORST STORM SINCE 1962.

Heavy rain storms occurring with more frequency - While many studies on global warming focus on increase in temperatures and examine the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a new report examined the frequency of large rain and snow storms in the United States between 1948 to 2006. Its conclusion is that larger rain and snowstorms are occurring with greater frequency, including California, where heavy rainfall is now 26 percent more likely to occur than it was 60 years ago. Additionally, snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains tend to melt more quickly due to heavy rainstorms, ushering in a host of problems during the summer months, when the snowpack melt is usually anticipated. Nationally, the report shows that storms with extreme precipitation have increased in frequency by 24 percent across the United States since 1948.

AUSTRALIA - Thunderstorms have lashed parts of the NSW coast, dumping heavy rain and causing flash flooding. Storms developed in a line across the south coast and the Sydney metropolitan area early Thursday, coming on the heels of a front which swept through the state's east on Wednesday. The flash flooding caused traffic chaos in Sydney and on roads south of the city, and localised flooding left residents in many areas needing sandbagging and help with leaking roofs. At Figtree, west of Wollongong, a whopping 70mm fell in the hour between 7am and 8am. Strathfield, in Sydney's west, recorded 40mm in just one hour on Thursday morning. In the 24 hours to 9am, Granville, another western Sydney suburb, had 109mm. Wollongong recorded 82mm in the same period. At Parramatta, a dumping of 69mm on Thursday morning left cars stranded in water to their windows. More storms were expected on Thursday afternoon. "Most of the rain has been very heavy but it hasn't been accompanied by strong winds or hail."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
Soma Beverage of San Francisco, California is recalling all bottles of Metromint flavors Peppermint, Spearmint, Orangemint, and Lemonmint with Best Before 2008/12/21 and produced at its California facility because they may be contaminated with Bacillus cereus. The products were distributed nationwide to grocery stores and sold on the Internet.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Wear the old coat and buy the new book.
Austin Phelps

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/4/07 -
5.1 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - The monster waves that were predicted for this week started rolling in Tuesday. Waves were 10 feet and bigger and only expected to get larger over the next 24 hours, when they are predicted to get as high as 20 feet. At least five rescues have been made to keep surfers from washing into the Ventura Pier. People were warned to stay off jetties and not to let their children into the ocean because the waves and the currents are so strong. “When it gets this large, something exponentially bad can happen.” The swell is expected to continue through Friday, peaking today.

VOLCANOES -
YEMEN - A volcano on a small uninhabited island in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen erupted again on 3 December after previously erupting on 30 September. No-one has been injured and there is no obvious threat to the environment following the eruption on Yemen’s Jabal al-Tair island. On 4 December the eruption occurred after seismic activities in the area over the past two days. “The eruption took place naturally. It is no danger.” The volcano has been active since it erupted on 30 September and there have been occasional lava flows. “The eruptions will continue for a long time until the lava in the ground finishes.” This eruption occurred due to fissures that appeared on the island after the previous eruption. “The fissures made it easy for the new eruption to occur.” This kind of volcano does not cool off quickly and may well involve a series of eruptions. “This volcano doesn’t pose a threat to neighbouring islands.” The 30 September eruption led to the deaths of nine people and 47 others were slightly injured.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical cyclone 05P was 1411 nmi SSE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Oregon and Washington are under a state of emergency after intense rain caused widespread flooding in the two states.
WASHINGTON - This week's heavy rain has set Western Washington up for another potential problem: more significant rain in the next week or so could lead to damaging landslides on the steep bluffs and hillsides overlooking Puget Sound. More than a dozen landslides have already been reported this week across Western Washington. So far, the National Weather Service is expecting colder and drier weather, with off and on showers but no heavy rain, over the next week. A decade ago, the last big period of landslides in the Seattle area started with the same kind of heavy precipitation and flooding the region has experienced this week. During the winter of 1996 and 1997, hundreds of landslides destroyed homes and roads throughout the region.

CALIFORNIA getting ready for a weather roller coaster. The Santa Anas made a return Tuesday, and large ocean surf with possible 14-foot breakers is expected through today and heavy rain is forecast to arrive Thursday. "We're going to have the best of ocean swells for the year coming into Southern California and the biggest rain of the season, plus a fire weather watch because of offshore winds." A combination of big waves and high tides in the 5-foot range can cause beach erosion and flooding in low-lying areas. A rainstorm from the Northwest is expected Thursday through Saturday, bringing more than an inch of rain. The Coast Guard issued a warning for recreational boaters to stay in port. If they do go out, they need to take special precautions because of the high seas. Seas near shore will present a danger to even the largest of ships. "We did check the buoys off of Oregon, and according to websites, the surf was 38-foot offshore. That's an indication that something's happening and coming our way."

CANADA - Fifteen waterfront homes in the Sea to Sky Highway community of Strachan Point, just north of Horseshoe Bay, remain evacuated this morning. There are concerns all the water and debris, sitting in the basin above, could cause a landslide.

HAWAII - The National Weather Service has issued a flash-flood watch for the state through Thursday afternoon. A strong frontal system is approaching the state from the west bringing possible heavy rains over an already saturated ground and producing a higher than normal potential for flash flooding.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TIBET - Seven Chinese migrant workers were missing on Tuesday after they were caught in an avalanche in a remote part of eastern Tibet. The seven were part of a 29-member group from the western province of Sichuan who were on a bus to Tibet's Medog county. They later left the bus and continued the journey on foot since the county has no road access. They were about 20 metres from a mountain peak when they got caught in the avalanche.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Ash from wildfires in Southern California's residential neighborhoods poses a serious threat to people and ecosystems because it is extremely caustic and contains high levels of arsenic, lead and other toxic metals, according to a study by federal geologists released Tuesday. U.S. Geological Survey scientists warned that rainstorms, which are forecast for the region beginning Friday, are likely to wash the dangerous substances into waterways, polluting streams and threatening wildlife. Some ash collected in residential areas after the October fires registered a pH of 12.7, a level more caustic than ammonia and nearly as caustic as lye. Metals, particularly arsenic, were found in such high concentrations in the ash that they would violate federal standards for cleaning up hazardous waste sites. Metals could have come from treated wood in decks, old lead-based paint, plumbing solder and other household substances. Local officials in the burn areas are racing to beat the approaching rain but said they will not be able to remove debris by Friday. Although the alkalinity will diminish over time and be diluted by heavy rain, USGS officials said they do not know how quickly it will neutralize. High-alkaline water could be poisonous to wildlife and vegetation essential to its survival.

Food prices are set to rise around the globe after years of decline, with climate change making it harder for the world's poorest to get adequate food, according to a report released Tuesday.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
We are born charming, fresh and spontaneous
and must be civilized before we are fit to participate in society.
Judith Martin

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/3/07 -
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Climate change may wipe some Indonesian islands off map - Indonesian scientists predict that by 2035, the Indonesian capital's airport will be flooded by sea water and rendered useless; and by 2080, the tide will be lapping at the steps of Jakarta's imposing Dutch-era Presidential palace which sits 10 km inland (about 6 miles). Just last week, tides burst through sea walls, cutting a key road to Jakarta's international airport until officials were able to reinforce coastal barricades. Even large islands are at risk as global warming might shrink their land mass, forcing coastal communities out of their homes and depriving millions of a livelihood. The island worst hit would be Java, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia's 226 million people. Here rising sea levels would swamp three of the island's biggest cities near the coast - Jakarta, Surabaya and Semarang - destroying industrial plants and infrastructure. "Tens of millions of people would have to move out of their homes. There is no way this will happen without conflict." Indonesia could lose 2,000 of its islands by 2030 if sea levels continue to rise. There are 42 million people in Indonesia living in areas less than 10 meters above the average sea level. Several other small island nations including Singapore, Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Caribbean countries have raised the alarm over rising sea levels which could wipe them off the map.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

PHILIPPINES - The national weather office on Monday reported it is expecting one more typhoon to hit the country before the year ends. The country will probably be visited by another tropical storm this month. Typhoons “Mina” and “Lando” last month stormed the country in succession, causing death and destruction, especially in the Bicol and Visayas regions. At least 20 died from floods and landslides and P100 million in crops was destroyed. “A lot of rainfall” can also be expected because of the “La Nińa” phenomenon, which is expected to hit the entire Southeast Asia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
WASHINGTON - The governor declared a state of emergency Monday authorizing state agencies to assist local governments in their response to massive wind and flooding in Western Washington that left at least two dead and caused part of Interstate 5 to be closed. About 90 percent of Gray's Harbor county was without electricity, and virtually all roads leading into the coastal city of Aberdeen were cut off. The public was cautioned against unnecessary travel and driving through standing water on roads, as the full extent of the storm damage remains unknown. All lanes of Interstate 5 near Centralia, the main route between Seattle and Portland, were closed because of flooding. The closure could last until Wednesday. It was the FIRST COMPLETE FREEWAY CLOSURE IN 11 YEARS caused by flooding in the area. Mudslides halted north-south Amtrak passenger train service between Eugene, Ore., and Vancouver, B.C. Most of the Olympic Peninsula, Kitsap County and Southwest Washington were hit particularly hard by the overnight storm. This is the second of two storms to blow through. Helicopter rescues were being launched for stranded hikers in King County and flood-trapped homeowners in Mason and Thurston counties. Coast Guard helicopters went to an area 20 miles west of Chehalis to rescue more than 80 people trapped there. The National Weather Service said 3 to 6 inches of rain had fallen in Western Washington, and warned that RECORD FLOODING could occur in Southwest Washington's Chehalis River basin. High tides near Aberdeen were expected to compound the problem at the river's lower reaches. The Elwha River on the northern Olympic Peninsula also was expected to flood at RECORD LEVELS. Major flooding was predicted on the Tolt and Snoqualmie rivers near Carnation, east of Seattle. Bremerton reported 10.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. Storm conditions damaged a container ship sailing off the Washington coast Monday and weather caused several weekend fuel spills. The 720-foot container ship was sailing near Cape Flattery when it was smashed by an ocean swell. The waves shattered wheelhouse windows, damaged electronic systems and knocked out the ship's primary steering system. Floodwaters were receding Monday, but slowly in places, and more rain is forecast for today. (photos)
Massive storm swamps Seattle - In neighborhoods throughout Seattle, where residents normally hunker down to watch weather disasters unfold on television from rural areas miles away, nature took a destructive spin through the city. By midday Monday, families had evacuated their homes, bewildered grandmothers were watching basement water levels rise and government officials were forced to acknowledge that their municipal systems had been pushed over the brink by NEAR-RECORD levels of rainfall. It was the second-wettest day since Seattle started keeping such records. By late afternoon Monday, nearly 6 billion gallons of rain had fallen. Four people have been reported dead and many roads remained closed by downed trees and landslides in Oregon and Washington, communications were spotty at best and power remained out for thousands of residents after the back-to-back storm fronts Sunday and Monday that were AMONG THE REGION'S WORST IN RECENT MEMORY. More stiff winds were likely today in the Northwest, but nothing like the lasts that exceeded 120 miles mph at times Sunday and Monday.
The storm is en route to the Upper Midwest, which has already been hit with heavy snow and rain from the first wave of severe weather from the Northwest. People in the Midwest began bracing for the new Northwest system even as they dug out from the storm that hampered travel over the weekend. That system moved into the Northeast on Monday and has been blamed for more than 15 deaths, mostly in traffic accidents. School was canceled or classes delayed from New York to Maine, and many areas were under ice or winter storm warnings.

CANADA - Atlantic Canada was bracing Monday for heavy snowfalls from the same massive weather system that has hammered Ontario and Quebec.
Residents in eastern Ontario and western Quebec awoke Monday to a winter storm that buried some areas in more than 20 centimetres of fresh snow by the start of the work day.
Vancover officials tell residents to stockpile clean water - Metro Vancouver officials are warning that heavy rains over the last 24 hours could lead to cloudy drinking water after a huge storm transformed the South Coast of B.C. into a slushy mess overnight Sunday.
Canada is blanketed coast to coast by bad weather - It's not unusual for winter to bite Canada at this time of year, but it's something of an anomaly to have so much bad weather hit so many different areas at the same time.

ARIZONA - A storm system like one that drenched them last week is on the way, prompting a HIGHLY UNUSUAL forecast for a time when La Nińa was supposed to heat them up and dry them out. "This next system might be just as strong or maybe even stronger than the last one. It's not impossible that we could have very heavy rainfall." The Weather Service Climate Prediction Office is still calling for a warm, dry winter because of a cooling trend - La Nińa - in surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. But the office has adjusted its outlook for December to warmer than normal temperatures and above average rainfall. "It's VERY HIGHLY UNUSUAL...This is not supposed to happen in a La Nińa year." The rain comes on the tail of Tucson's WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. The average temperature of 65.7 degrees was the highest ever largely because of warmer than normal highs for each of the first 21 days of the month.

AUSTRALIA - Wild storms have swept across Victoria, causing flash flooding and trapping several drivers in their cars. The bureau was warning of more severe weather in Melbourne's eastern suburbs last night. Flash flooding has inundated homes in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs and heavy rain had caused several roofs to collapse.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - The Northern Territory's Barkly region has had its HOTTEST DAY ON RECORD, with the mercury reaching 45.4 degrees in Tennant Creek yesterday.

TEXAS - On Sunday afternoon, Austin reached a RECORD-BREAKING HIGH of 85 degrees at Austin-Bergstom International Airport.

MONTANA - November saw abrupt weather shift - Rarely is the demarcation between fall and winter so clearly defined. For the first 18 days of the month, temperatures climbed 10, 15 even 20 degrees above normal on a regular basis, hitting a stunning 70 degrees on Nov. 4. A trace of rain fell here and there, but as the midpoint of the month passed, just .01 inch of moisture had been measured. Only four times previously since records have been kept had measurable snow been so late in coming to Billings. Then Nov. 19 dawned cloudy and mean. A massive moisture surge collided with frigid air from Alaska and Canada, and the temperature was all downhill from there. "The interesting thing about November was the number of days that were an extreme departure from normal. By extreme, I mean days that were 10 degrees above or 10 degrees below normal for the day. There was even one day more than 20 degrees above normal." That was the 70-degree high on Nov. 4. Normal temperature for that day is 48 degrees.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Poland has become the eighth European country to report an H5N1 outbreak this year. In October, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that apparently healthy ducks and geese in Europe could be harboring the H5N1 virus. H5N1 avian influenza has struck two turkey farms, the country's first reported outbreak in domestic birds, and there were reports that meat contaminated with the virus was sold to consumers. Poland last found H5N1 in birds in the spring of 2006, when it was detected in wild swans and other waterfowl. Authorities were trying to track down the meat in food shops, but most of it was probably already in consumers' homes, because it had been delivered to stores at the beginning of the previous week. Health officials are monitoring the health of store employees.
Elsewhere, animal-health officials in Bangladesh reported more H5N1 outbreaks in poultry in the northwestern part of the country. The latest outbreak struck a village in Pabna district, about 100 miles from Dhaka, the capital. Workers culled 6,000 chickens and destroyed more than 2,500 eggs to stamp out the outbreak. Twenty of Bangladesh's 64 districts have now reported H5N1 outbreaks in poultry.

Monday, December 3, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day,
teach a man to fish and he'll devastate whole ecosystems.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/2/07 -
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

BARBADOS - The people of Walkers Land in Cane Vale Crescent, Christ Church, say they got more than a shake-up from last week's tremors. They believe the tremors caused the rupture of a water main in a road off Crescent No. 4 that is earmarked for surfacing, resulting in the loss of hundreds of gallons of the precious liquid. Water started shooting into the air from around the time of the tremors last Thursday and the flow continued until a team from the Barbados Water Authority repaired the main on Sunday. (photo)

ISRAEL - Fourth quake in 2 weeks shakes Israel - An earthquake measuring 4.0 on the Richter Scale was felt in the Dead Sea, Jerusalem and Coastal Plain areas Sunday morning; no injuries or damage reported. The quake's epicenter was, yet again, the Dead Sea. "The quake is not surprising as there is a lot of activity in the Dead Sea area… However, it is impossible to draw any clear conclusions about the future from this quake. Israel has been preparing for a possible large-scale earthquake for the past several years now."

IRAN - An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.6 hit an area around the northwest Iranian city of Tabriz on Saturday frightening residents when some power and telephone lines were cut in the city. The disruption to services in a large part of the city sent many people into the streets in panic, some taking to their cars and causing heavy traffic. Downed phone lines made it difficult for officials to contact the affected area to determine possible damage. The 4.6 magnitude quake at 10.15 p.m. (1845 GMT) followed a 3.9 tremor less than half an hour earlier. Earthquakes regularly strike Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, which is criss-crossed with fault lines. The northwest city of Tabriz is not close to major oil producing areas.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BANGLADESH - thousands of fishermen died off Bangladesh this past summer. The Bay of Bengal was UNUSUALLY ROUGH. Usually, the authorities only issue a storm warning to fishermen to stay at home once or twice a year. Last year, four warnings were issued in the space of two months. Every warning meant the fishermen lost valuable days at sea. When the last warning came, they could not afford to stay ashore and went to sea anyway. Officially 1,700 drowned, but many Bangladeshis believe the real number may be closer to 10,000. "Was it climate change? We don't know. Was it UNUSUAL? Yes."
Also, there were the STRANGE events of 2004, when the tides in the estuaries of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers stopped ebbing and flowing. The water level just stayed at high tide. The same year, the capital, Dhaka, was hit by floods so severe the ground floors of most buildings were under water, and a catfish was caught in one of the government buildings. And in 2005, the country had no winter at all. Bangladesh, like much of northern India, gets quite cold in winter. Except that it didn't last year. Winter never came - with serious effects on the year's potato crop. This year, too, it has not been as cold as usual. "The direction of the monsoon has changed in the last few years. The depression that brings the rain used to advance north across Bangladesh. Now it is heading west." That could have devastating implications in the event of a tropical cyclone as the change in direction of the monsoon may mean any cyclone spends more time gathering pace over the Bay of Bengal. The rainfall is increasingly erratic. "People always come to Bangladesh to talk about rising sea levels. Have you considered that London is the same height above sea level as most of Bangladesh? You have the Thames barrier, and we have our dykes. By the time Bangladesh is flooded, you will have lost London."

BRITAIN - Severe gales with gusts of over 70mph which struck the south coast of England have subsided. "For a short period the wind went up to about 73mph but now it is down to around 20mph." The storm, which felled trees, and caused flooding and power cuts in Devon, peaked at around 4pm GMT. During Saturday night, the Isles of Scilly were struck by 70mph winds and waves of more than 40ft (12m) were recorded off the Atlantic coast. The English Channel saw waves of 25ft (7.6m) from strong winds blowing from the Atlantic. Waves estimated at 55ft (16.7m) high bore down on the Irish coast at Mullagmore Head in Donegal Bay on Saturday.
The weekend was not the end of the bout of nasty weather - more bad weather is expected. "There's a big depression over the Atlantic just winding itself up, and that's likely to reach us on Tuesday or Wednesday. So there's plenty of wet and windy weather to come this week."

TAIWAN - A freighter may have sunk in a whirlpool last week, dragging down as many as 27 crew members within five minutes after the ship was struck by a GIANT WAVE off Taiwan. The eddy between currents about 35 nautical miles east of Taiwan's northern tip is suspected of sinking the ship, which was carrying iron ore and an Indonesian crew of 28. One crew member was found alive, clinging to his life vest, a day after the freighter went down last Tuesday. "Some of the sailors couldn't put on their lifejackets in time, so there are some who didn't make it up." Typhoon Mitag generated stormy seas east of Taiwan last week after killing about 19 in the Philippines.

A warning about U.S. East Coast tsunamis - The risk is low. But the consequences could be high, with deadly waves striking the coastal communities of Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey and killing thousands of people. The federal government has completed the mid-Atlantic region’s risk assessments for the killer mounds of water known as tsunamis, or tidal waves. Scientists have long considered the West Coast of North America as the side of the continent most likely to suffer earthquakes and the undersea disturbances that raise tsunamis. But in recent years, with a growing appreciation of the diverse origins of the giant waves and their potential for havoc, experts have found new reasons for vigilance along the East Coast. “Tsunamis are a real threat." The giant waves can arise hundreds of miles away, in theory giving emergency planners hours to send people to higher ground. A seaquake in a deep trench off Puerto Rico could raise a tsunami that would travel for nearly five hours on the ocean’s surface before crashing into Montauk, on the southeastern tip of Long Island. “Near the shoreline, all tsunamis are sensitive to minor variations in seafloor and land topography, increasing in height as they approach the coast. Better understanding of the relief of the coastal zone is critical to predicting how a tsunami will flood coastal communities.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OREGON - a powerful storm was forming in the western Pacific near Japan on Thursday. Cold air from East Asia moving over the warm waters of the Kuroshio Current was causing rapid storm development. This is enhanced by moisture from two decaying typhoons, Mitag and Hagibis, which have moved into the mid-latitudes. Everything is setting up for a big West Coast event. The storm will be tapping copious amounts of subtropical moisture, producing an “atmospheric river,” the type of condition that gives them their wettest rain events. Because of its original tropical location, the “river” is a very warm one, and high freezing levels are expected. A “rain on snow” event, caused by a combination of melted snow and heavy rain, might occur. They may get a big windstorm followed by a big flood. The U.S. Navy wave model was predicting 25- to 30-foot waves. According to the National Weather Service, this is a big storm, the kind of storm they get about once every five to 10 years. In fact, this storm has caused NWS officials to issue A WIND WARNING THAT THEY HAVE NEVER USED BEFORE. In 2002, NWS received a directive that gave forecast offices the authority to issue a hurricane force wind warning in the marine forecast. The purpose is to highlight the extreme nature of RARE storms that may occur only once every five to 10 years. These are not actually hurricanes, which are tropical storms. Rather, this type of storm is an “extratropical cyclone,” a storm formed and sustained by an intersection of warm and cold air. Tropical storms have just warm air. Extratropical cyclones are much larger than hurricanes and thus have much broader impact zones. “The current threat appears to be mostly to the water and the immediate coastline. This storm has the potential to damage ships or cargo and will be difficult to avoid because of the huge area it will cover.” Thus, the FIRST-EVER HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST was issued.
WASHINGTON - The largest of three consecutive storms is poised to move through Western Washington today, promising heavy rain, strong wind, and potential for major flooding along Olympic Mountain-fed rivers. As for wind, it was already picking up along the coast last night. Astoria, Oregon reported a gust to 77 mph just before 11 o'clock while Hoquiam had gusts to 52 mph. Meanwhile, an unofficial report out of Bay Center, Wash. (near Long Beach) had a measured gust of 119 mph. This is not a typical windstorm where the low center passes through and they get 2-5 hours of wind. This is an extended event where strong winds are expected from 6-10 hours. So high winds are expected to blow through the day today and then taper off this afternoon or early evening. As much as 6-10 inches of rain are expected in the Olympic Mountains, and some Olympic-fed rivers could see RECORD FLOODING with this event. A high surf warning is in effect for the coast, where seas were expected to build to 20-25 feet on Sunday, and 30-35 feet on Monday.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - The first big winter storm of the northern season made its way toward the northeastern United States and Canada after lashing the Midwest, leaving 11 dead in car accidents and disrupting air travel. Heavy snow and freezing rain forced the cancellation of numerous flights in Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois and some presidental campaign events in Iowa.
Minnesota's Grand Marais, on Lake Superior's North Shore, got 20 inches of snow, and the port city of Duluth marked a December 1st RECORD of 10.3 inches. Before the storm hit the Plains and Midwest, it had dumped up to 2 feet of snow in the mountains of western Colorado. Winter storm warnings were in effect in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine and in parts of New York state. While the Midwest dug out and the Northeast braced itself, a separate storm raked the Oregon and Washington coasts with winds gusting higher than 100 mph in some spots. Officials warned of coastal flooding, and one sheriff reported 45-foot surf and power failures.

CANADA - Three separate storms were dumping heavy snow in different parts of Canada on Sunday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Engineer's dream to fight wildfires with giant water balloons takes shape - The basic concept is simple: Biodegradable plastic balloons 4 feet in diameter hold 240 gallons of water; they are enclosed in cardboard boxes that are torn open by the wind when pushed out the back of a cargo plane; the balloons burst in midair, making it rain in the desert. With the use of GPS coordinates and wind-speed calculations, the balloons could be dropped with precision from a safe altitude high above the flames. The water balloons could make any plane with a ramp, a cargo bay, and a specialized GPS system into a firefighter.

NORTH CAROLINA - In a drought this extended, there are no records to compare it with. And it's that lack of recorded data that is causing problems because it's affecting everything from the forecasting the dryness to the actions officials take in dealing with the drought. Forecasters say they're becoming more and more frustrated because the long-term dryness is putting them in uncharted territory. Weather models fall apart in extreme situations. “The models know what normal conditions are and will make predictions based on what's normal. But, when you get extreme situations, the models don't fit what you'd like them to fit and you have to take them with a grain of salt." And it's bad models affected by the extreme conditions that have caused problems.

Tropical Belt widening as the global climate changes - Climate change is causing earth's tropical zones to creep towards the poles faster than scientists once thought, according to findings that have worldwide implications. This shift also means dry subtropical zones, like southern Australia, may become drier, notably intensifying water scarcity and people in temperate zones may experience more storms. "Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded, during only the last few decades of the 20th century, by at least the same margin as models predict for this century." The tropical zone ends at 23.5° north and south of the equator at the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, boundaries determined by earth's tilt on its axis. These tropical borders are the furthest point from the equator where the sun shines directly overhead at the summer solstice. But climate scientists define the tropical band by what happens on the land, in the water and in the air, and that is what is changing. Climatologists look at the complex, powerful high-altitude wind pattern known as the Hadley circulation. It's powerful jet streams are what determine precipitation patterns in the tropics, which are characterised by lots of rain in the central part of the belt near the equator and by dryness at its fringes. Some years ago, the first credible computer simulations predicted that as the earth warmed, the Hadley jet streams and their associated wind and rainfall patterns would move pole-wards. Under the most extreme scenario, the tropics were on average predicted to expand by about 2° latitude, equivalent to around 200 kilometres over the 21st century. The new report concludes that this change in the tropical jet streams has already happened and THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO HAS ALREADY BEEN SURPASSED. Five datasets find expansion ranging from 2-4.8° latitude over the 25 years, or 200-480 kilometres. "The observed widening appears to have occurred faster than climate models predict in their projections of anthropogenic climate change," the scientists write. But they are unclear of the mechanisms behind the widening of the tropical zone. Possible factors include the ozone hole, warming of the sea's surface and an increase in the tropopause, a boundary layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere. If tropical climates are spreading pole-wards, dry subtropical climates may head for the poles too. Those dry subtropical bands could include some of the most heavily populated places on earth: the Mediterranean, the US Southwest, northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America. "Shifts in precipitation patterns would have obvious implications for agriculture and water resources and could present serious hardships in marginal areas." For those who live in the middle latitudes, like most US, European and Asian residents, the change could affect the storm tracks that largely determine weather in these areas. "The jet streams are moving pole-wards, and so, presumably, would the storm tracks."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Chinese man dies of H5N1 bird flu - A man in China's eastern province of Jiangsu has died from the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. The man died after being admitted to hospital on 27 November with severe chills and fever. He had no known contact with dead poultry, and no outbreaks of bird flu were reported nearby. A total of 17 people have died in China from the H5N1 virus and millions of birds have been culled. Since the H5N1 virus emerged in South East Asia in late 2003, it has claimed some 200 lives around the world. Indonesia has been hardest hit, with more than 90 deaths.

Annual U.S. HIV infections may be as much as 50% higher than the government has estimated since 2001, say AIDS activists who complain health officials aren't releasing new figures in a timely manner.

Sunday, December 2, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
God loved the birds and invented trees.
Man loved the birds and invented cages.
Jacques Deval

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/1/07 -
5.4 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 FIJI REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
11/30/07 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLAND
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
IRELAND - A Cornish surfer defied warnings to ride what are thought to be THE BIGGEST WAVES RECORDED OFF THE WEST COAST of Ireland. He was surfing at Mullagmore Head in Donegal Bay as waves estimated at 55ft (16.7m) high lashed the coast. Weather forecasters had warned of hazardous conditions for ships, fishing vessels and coastal walkers. It is understood that low pressure near Iceland is causing the high sea levels with waves growing for between 500 and 600 miles by the time they crash against the Irish coastline. "This is allowing waves to travel all the way uninterrupted to the Irish coast. "It's QUITE UNUSUAL. The last time we would have had waves close to this height would have been in early 2005 and before that in 2000." The entire west coast, from Cork up to Donegal, was affected. Previously the biggest waves recorded by the Marine Institute's data buoys were to the west of Galway Bay in January 2005, when swells of 44ft (13.4m) were recorded. The high seas come just weeks after the east coast of England braced itself for tidal surges, sparking flood fears and evacuations. (wave photo)

BRITAIN will be hammered by hurricane-force storms this weekend. Experts predict winds of 70-80mph are heading their way, bringing the threat of widespread damage. And heavy downpours will add to the nation’s misery. On top of the hurricane-wind storm alert, a massive Atlantic water surge coming down from Iceland was expected to hit the west of coast of Ireland over the next 48 hours. Authorities are warning shipping and people living along the Atlantic coast to be on their guard for record sea swells more than 14 metres high. The high seas alert comes just weeks after the east coast of England braced itself for tidal surges, sparking flood fears and evacuations. The continually bleak outlook has sparked growing concerns that global warming is taking its toll and blurring Britain’s seasons. The latest weather warning follows a year in which the UK has witnessed freak flash flooding, tornados, blizzards and gale force winds.

MALAYSIA - Costlier fish as waves are high and catch is low - Prices of fish have gone through the roof with bad weather conditions keeping many fishermen, especially those in the West Coast, from putting out to sea. Strong winds and choppy seas, the last brought on by tropical storm Hagibis, have beached smaller trawlers at fishing docks - some for more than a week - allowing only larger vessels with more powerful engines to go out. "The demand is high but the supply is low so there is bound to be a price increase, especially in this weather." In better weather, more than 100 fishing vessels of all sizes are able to set out to sea but with the present conditions that number has been reduced to just over 50. And even well-off fishermen who have the equipment to weather the storm know it is still a gamble on their side, as the season promises no guarantee of a catch. "These ships have to spend between six and seven days at sea to catch just enough fish, but sometimes even after so many days they cannot land a satisfactory catch."

VOLCANOES -
MEXICO - Popocatepetl volcano spewed ash and steam on Saturday in a giant plume stretching some 3,000 meters (two miles) high. The eruption southeast of Mexico City was "a major explosive event, totally different to those since the year 2000" and related to a rupture of lava inside the volcano's crater. The volcanic activity started at 6:20 am (1220 GMT) and officials issued a yellow alert, signaling no immediate risk to the local population. Ash began falling on Puebla, the closest city to the volcano, a couple of hours after the eruption. During the past 13 years, the volcano has become more active during the month of December. Last week, a two-kilometer (1.5 mile) trail of smoke rose from the volcano but no ash fell. (photo)

TRINIDAD - At Devil's Woodyard, a mud volcano about 10 kilometers east of Princes Town, 10 new "minor" craters and a crack that runs more than 100 feet and is several inches wide, have appeared after the massive Caribbean quake last week. By the sound coming from the mud volcano, it seemed to residents that it was close to eruption. In 1995, when a volcano erupted, it sent black mud over a wide area, driving many residents permanently from their homes. Workers have been planting trees to cover the area that was destroyed. Workers there who were reforesting this week are frightened and wish to be reassigned out of the area. (photo)

ECUADOR - Tungurahua volcano showered ash down on small villages and showed increased signs of activity on Friday. A plume of smoke spewed from the volcano 135 kilometers (80 miles) south of the capital of Quito, and red lava was seen rolling down its flanks at night. Nearby villages were not in danger, but volcanic activity "could become more intense." Tungurahua has been erupting off and on since 1999.

PHILIPPINES - Biliran is a volcanic island, but there was no reason to panic over this fact until a local official allegedly predicted a volcanic eruption here after a recent earthquake. October 28, at 6:15 a.m., an Intensity 4.4 earthquake shook the vicinity of Biliran province and nearby towns. Its epicenter was four kilometers southeast of Naval town. It was actually the second earthquake on the same day in Eastern Visayas. A few hours earlier, at 2:21 a.m., an earthquake of similar intensity shook the province of Northern Samar, with its epicenter located 59 km southeast of Catarman. The Phivolcs reported that these earthquakes were tectonic in origin. That is, they were caused by the shifting or movement of the earth’s crust. (The other cause is volcanic, triggered by the underground forces of a volcano, including eruption.) Two days later, a councilor of Naval who hosts a noon block-time radio program, allegedly claimed on air that the earthquake signaled an impending eruption of the volcano in Biliran. Feedback from radio listeners and blog exchanges in an Internet forum for Biliranons indicated that the eruption was supposed to occur Nov. 15 or 17. The councilor reportedly alleged that a mysterious, hermit-like old man with that dire prediction requested him to broadcast his hunch to the public. Then an aftershock shook Naval at about 7 a.m. on Oct. 31. This time, the earthquake created a climate of fear and uncertainty that spread among local people who had heard the radio broadcast. Panic reportedly gripped the residents of several upland barangays around Libtong area east of Naval near the present mouth of the only active volcano in Eastern Visayas. Some have reportedly left the area after allegedly selling their livestock and farm lots cheaply, to settle elsewhere while the perceived danger remained. Many modern Biliranons became aware of the volcano in their midst only after the catastrophic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in Zambales in June 1991. In its wake, Phivolcs publicized reports that Biliran Island has the lone active volcano in Eastern Visayas.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - UNUSUAL winter storm - Cars became stuck in the mud in Mesa, debris washed through the roadway in north Scottsdale and flooding slowed traffic on freeways as rain pelted the Valley Friday during what experts called a RECORD-BREAKING STORM. By early morning Saturday, parts of the East Valley had received up to an inch and a half of rain and north Scottsdale residents saw as much as two inches or more. “This storm, of course, is bigger than what we’re used to here, in terms of moisture and rainfall." The storm was the WETTEST SYTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE 1995. It also was the MOST RAIN TO HIT THE VALLEY ON NOVEMBER 30 SINCE 1933.
A RECORD-SETTING STORM has dumped more than 4 inches of rain in high-elevation areas north of Scottsdale, and water continues to fall.

COLORADO - RECORD-BREAKING RAIN ends 40-day dry spell - Grand Junction had received 0.47 inches of rain Saturday as of 5 p.m., with more rain expected throughout the evening. Saturday’s rainfall didn’t quite double the previous Dec. 1 rainfall record of 0.29 inches set in 1978. Normal for the date is 0.02 inches. The rain came on the heels of a 40-day dry spell for Grand Junction, where hardly more than a trace of rain fell between Oct. 20 and Nov. 30.

CALIFORNIA - Barstow received more than an inch of rain in one day, RECORD LEVELS considering the area had only received .54 of an inch from the first of the year until Thursday, 11/29. “We basically doubled the yearly total of rain.” The storm activity was normal for the season even though the rainfall was UNUSUAL.
The storm delivered the MOST RAIN SAN DIEGO HAS SEEN IN ONE DAY IN MORE THAN A YEAR. Nearly 5 inches fell on Palomar Mountain.

SOUTH AFRICA - A hail storm has damaged about 200 homes in Maduma village at Ngqamakhwe in the Eastern Cape. Although many roofs and walls collapsed during the storm, there have been no reports of injuries. Meanwhile, in the Northern Cape, a FREAK storm has caused widespread damage to about 200 houses in Louisweg Township near Upington. Five people have been injured. Emergency personnel have arranged accommodation for the displaced families at local schools. Earlier, a severe storm hit the Matlosana Municipality in the North West. Alabama was badly affected as roofs were blown away and houses collapsed. The Tshepong Hospital was flooded and some patients had to be transferred to other hospitals. The hospital is still not admitting new patients. It is said to be the worst storm in 27 years in the area.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - Environment Canada predicts that this will be the COLDEST WINTER IN MORE THAN A DECADE. Vancouver Island's UNSUALLY COLD weather (in some places 6C below normal) fit into overall predictions for the country. It could make for the coldest temperatures since 1994-95. "What's UNUSUAL about the map is it's showing cold from Vancouver Island to Bonavista. We rarely see winters expressed this consistently, this uniformly. If we take a look at Canada [today] it may be white from coast to coast." If the predictions by Environment Canada prove true, Canadians will have the weather phenomenon known as La Nina to thank. Many parts of the country have already received a lashing of winter weather. Much of Ontario and parts of Quebec were hit by snow and freezing rain this past week. Regina has been chilled to the bone this week by average temperatures of -30 C. Two weeks ago, ski hills in Whistler opened ahead of schedule after more than 80 cm fell during the west coast's first major storm of the season. Mount Washington isn't too far behind. Its scheduled opening Dec. 6., is somewhat earlier than usual. Last time Environment Canada predicted La Nina, in 1998, Mount Washington was deluged with a record 18 metres of snow. The mountain has already recorded colder temperatures than normal, which it believes are courtesy the La Nina phenomenon. "I've been here five years and this is the coldest I've seen it."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NORTH CAROLINA - A sunny Friday helped the Triangle set a NEW RECORD FOR THE DRIEST NOVEMBER. Raleigh-Durham International Airport has had only 81 days of measurable rain through the end of November. That's 11 days less than the record, which is 92 days.

Friday, November 30, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they hit a triple.
Barry Switzer

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/29/07 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 DOMINICA, LEEWARD ISLANDS
7.4 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.3 WEST CHILE RISE
5.3 MOZAMBIQUE

MARTINIQUE - A strong earthquake measuring 7.4 magnitude hit near the island of Martinique in the eastern Caribbean. The earthquake struck off the north-west coast of Martinique at a depth of 145.4 kilometres (90.4 miles). No casualties have been reported and no major tsunami warning has been given. Major damage was not expected, because of the depth of the quake. There have been reports that some buildings have collapsed in Martinique's capital, Fort-de-France. There were reports that the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica had felt the quake strongly. Residents on islands further across the eastern Caribbean - as far away as Puerto Rico to the north and Trinidad and Tobago to the south - told the USGS that they had felt the quake. The tremor was also felt hundreds of miles away in South America. In the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, 500 miles (800km) from the epicentre, some people evacuated office buildings. (photo)
Residents screamed and fled into the streets as the deep quake rumbled for nearly 10 minutes. One person had a heart attack and another was injured jumping out of a window, according to witnesses. At least five houses collapsed in the quake, THE STRONGEST IN LIVING MEMORY, and walls cracked in buildings on Martinique and nearby St. Lucia to the south. On St. Lucia, water lines and water tanks were damaged.

CALIFORNIA - The powerful earthquake in the Caribbean on Thursday triggered a series of false quake alarms in California. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey said a wave of seismic energy confused computers that try to triangulate the location of earthquakes along the West Coast. As the wave of energy from the 7.3 quake passed through California, computers initially spit out warnings that a magnitude 6.0 temblor had struck near Chico in the north-central part of the state. Seconds later, monitors indicated an arc of earthquakes stretching from San Luis Obispo on the state's central coast to Lake Tahoe. The readings were posted automatically on the Geological Survey's Web sites. "These were all mislocated, picking up energy coming out of the Caribbean and treating it as a local earthquake. All of these mythical quakes struck within a few seconds of each other, and frankly that's a clue for us that the rash didn't actually occur. The trick is you have to make sure every one of them was false." A team of scientists analyzed each of the reported California earthquakes and determined all were false alarms. The wave of fake quakes began registering nine minutes after the Caribbean quake. In September, a similar incident occurred when a massive earthquake struck off the Mariana Islands in the Pacific Ocean. The quake triggered six false quakes in California.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - From Ilocos Norte to Jolo, huge waves swamped coastal areas across the country Tuesday night, leaving at least four people dead and sending into panic about 5,000 residents. Authorities are still trying to find an explanation for the big waves that struck, following several typhoons and a powerful earthquake. On the entire western coast of Luzon, which was also jolted by a magnitude-6 earthquake past noon Tuesday, more than 5,400 people fled to safety and government emergency shelters after their communities were swamped. Local officials were urged to continue monitoring their coastal areas and carry out “preemptive evacuations” if there was a resurgence in big waves.
The strong waves last Tuesday destroyed about 70 percent of the picnic sheds at the Tondaligan beach in Bonuan Gueset. The rusty roofing of nine units at Gawad Kalinga Bangus Ville also collapsed. Twenty-five fish pens at the Pantal River's delta in Sitio Sabangan, Bonuan Gueset side were washed out. A fish pen in Bonuan Binloc was also wiped out. About 110 families (557 persons) were evacuated to different evacuation centers. The Barangay Bonuan Gueset chairman said it was THE WORST INCIDENT THEY HAD EXPERIENCED. "Not even the strongest typhoons in the past did cause such strong waves."

VIETNAM - flood-tides rose to 1.5 meters Tuesday night — the HIGHEST IN 48 YEARS. Vietnam has already experienced rising sea levels, record temperatures, and unstable rainfall causing unpredictable phases of flood and drought. Hundreds have died in recent months, as repeated cyclone hits and heavy rainfall has led to deadly flooding.

OREGON - “An UNUSUALLY STRONG high wind and seas event is forecast to develop along the Oregon Coast Sunday and Monday. This storm will coincide with the early days of crab season, posing a significant and dangerous impact to mariners,” and will bring with it 30-plus-foot seas. It’s no Pineapple Express, the kind that brings warm southerly winds after gathering energy in the tropics. It’s no pure Arctic blow coming down from the north, either. This storm could be considered more like a combination of the two. Two National Weather Service computer models showed a low-pressure system developing about 1,000 miles offshore on Wednesday that could bring storm-force winds of more than 55 mph and 32-foot combined seas to the coast on Sunday and Monday. It likely will track north and cross Canada. Usually, a storm prediction of that magnitude more than five days out still has some uncertainty attached to it, but this one seems especially strong for at least two reasons: computer model agreement and its low — really low — pressure. One computer model showed the system measuring 946 millibars of atmospheric pressure and another model showed it at 949 millibars. “That is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL.” High-pressure systems that bring fair weather usually measure about 1,000 millibars. The computer models differ on the speed and specific track of the storm, but its expected impact at a time when the West Coast crab fleet will be at sea has forecasters on alert. Because the system is developing so far offshore, it likely will have an occluded front — so the air won’t be that cold, but it won’t be that warm, either. Before the ocean swells hit, southerly winds will pick up and continue through the weekend, but eventually, there is the potential for a large northwest swell combined with southwest winds over some of the ocean waters. “That’s ugly.” “Gusts of 60 to 80 mph along the coast are possible with even higher gusts along the coastal headlands. Dangerous seas of 25 to 35 feet are forecast to develop. Details are not certain this early, but confidence is high that a significant event will occur. Mariners and residents along the south Oregon Coast are advised to stay informed of this developing storm.”

ALASKA - three storms that hit the Kenai Peninsula one after another brought unwelcomed flooding, disrupted air traffic and damaged roads. Gale-force winds last Sunday afternoon (11/25) slammed a 22.3-foot tide past a homemade breakwater protecting a home and other nearby structures. Across Kachemak Bay, THE WIND'S STRENGTH SURPASSED ANYTHING SELDOVIA RESIDENTS HAD EXPERIENCED. "We've lived here 37 years and I've never seen anything like it. It takes a 5.6 earthquake to move this house, but this house shook and shuddered for hours." The worst impact was a surge of water through the Homer sewer treatment plant. Normally, about 600,000 gallons of water a day goes through the plant. Last week's storms saw 1.2 million gallons a day go through the treatment plant a violation of the cap set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The recent series of three storms began impacting the area Nov. 16. Flooding in the Anchor River crested at 15.9 feet at 9 a.m. Friday and was the fourth highest ever recorded. Winds during last week's storms reached 48 miles per hour at 9 a.m. Thanksgiving morning.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

BANGLADESH - The final toll from cyclone Sidr was likely to be more than 4,000 as hundreds of fishermen are still missing in Bangladesh, the army said Thursday. 3,256 bodies have been found and 880 people are missing and feared dead. Sidr struck on November 15, smashing into the coast before cutting a swathe through the southern and central districts. An estimated 360,000 people have been left homeless with around 4.7 million people affected. The storm was THE SECOND MOST POWERFUL CYCLONE TO HIT THE COUNTRY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
Bangladesh's livestock sector has suffered losses of around 3 billion taka (US$43 million) in the recent cyclone Sidr. Over 2.2 million poultry were killed in 4 badly affected districts in the coastal area., and a total of 27 million poultry were affected in the devastating cyclone in 12 southern and southwestern districts. Additionally, it is also feared that a huge number of poultry are feared to have died due to various post-cyclone infectious diseases. A preliminary estimate puts the total loss from the cyclone at US $2.31 billion, including rural infrastructure, schools, crops and livestock.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - Just as the National Weather Service has predicted all week, a low-pressure system currently spinning in the eastern Pacific Ocean soon will slide northeast and drop as much as an inch of rain on the Phoenix area. The expected peak of the rainfall runs from this afternoon through Saturday morning. This is an UNUSUAL TIME FOR RAIN to fall in south-central Arizona. In Phoenix’s recorded weather history, dating to 1895, precipitation has been recorded on Dec. 1 only seven times. Due to this weather system’s relative warmth, not much snow is expected in the high country. After the storm exits Arizona on Saturday, it will continue across the U.S., spreading rain, snow and sleet in a band from the Rockies to New England. Back in the Valley, residents might have to cope on Sunday with dense fog left in the storm’s wake.

CALIFORNIA - Rain in the desert is UNUSUAL, but the National Weather Service forecast puts the chances at 30 to 40 percent today and Saturday.

BRITAIN is facing winds of near-hurricane strength this weekend. Gusts of up to 70mph are forecast for parts of England and Wales tonight and severe gales will continue to lash the country on Sunday. Combined with heavy rain, the windy weather will make driving conditions hazardous and will rattle chimney pots, loosen roof tiles and bring down trees. The stormy start to December follows ONE OF THE DRIEST NOVEMBERS IN A CENTURY. Conditions will be unsettled for the next few days. The windy outlook follows another YEAR OF RECORD-BREAKING WEATHER for Britain – and GROWING SIGNS THAT THE SEASONS ARE BECOMING MUDDLED. Daffodils have bloomed weeks ahead of schedule at the Eden Project near St Austell, Cornwall. Plants and animals are already behaving as if spring has arrived. This autumn, primroses have been flowering in Inverness and roses are out in Perth. There are live tadpoles in Fife and baby newts in Edinburgh. AUTUMN WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST SINCE NATIONWIDE RECORDS BEGAN in 1914 and the DRIEST SINCE 1972. Just 8.1in of rain fell between September and the end of November – compared to the long-term seasonal average of 13.2in. By contrast, summer was THE WETTEST. A total of 14.3in of rain fell – beating the previous record set in 1956. April was the WARMEST ON RECORD, while last winter was THE MILDEST. In June and July, floods swamped thousands of homes across Yorkshire, the Midlands, Wales, the South West and the Thames Valley. The Met Office's long-term weather forecast for winter suggests that temperatures will be slightly above average, and that the season will be wetter than normal. However, it will be colder than last year.

SOUTH AFRICA - A FREAK storm which hit the City of Matlosana municipality's surburb of Alabama and the nearby Tshepong Hospital has caused millions of rands worth of damages. Roofs were blown away while many people were left without shelter, as some of the houses had collapsed. Tshepong Hospital which was flooded, had transfered some of the patients, and is still not admitting any patients. Last night, hospital staff and workers were mopping up, after what some say, is THE WORST STORM IN THE PAST 27 YEARS. Tshepong was hit by a storm last year, after which, the provincial Health Department spent almost 20 million rands on its repairs. In Alabama, one of the surburbs of the City of Matlosana, more than a thousand houses have been damaged following the storm. Residents say this is the third storm to hit the area in less than 12 months.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

FLORIDA - recent bouts of extreme weather have exacerbated a problem in the town of Clewiston: animals run amok. “The wildlife is coming into town to forage.” Animals finding their way to town with growing frequency include possums, racoons and even a few iguanas. The reason for the strange emergence of the animals is uncertain, but the police chief said the extreme weather might have more than a little to do with it. According to him, when the weather conditions are extremely dry - as they are now with the current drought conditions around the lake area - or when it is severely wet, the animals start coming out of the Woodworks; and other parks for that matter.

AUSTRALIA - Conservationists are concerned about the future for five kinds of mammals whose last significant habitat on two Western Australian islands is under threat from drought. The animals, including the banded hare-wallaby and the burrowing bettong, used to exist across the mainland but are now confined to the Bernier and Dorre Islands in the Shark Bay area. Ongoing drought is having a negative impact on breeding and the condition of the animals. While some of the mammals are kept in captivity elsewhere, climate change could wipe out their last wild populations. "If we are entering a period where we may be getting more extended periods of drought there's always a chance that those sort of conditions can tip [species that may have been able to cope] just over the edge where they can no longer cope."
Flying foxes have been dropping off trees and dying in droves because of the effects of climate change, researchers say. More than 30,000 of the fruit bats are estimated to have died since 1994 in heat waves associated with global warming. Mass deaths from heat stress have occurred at least 19 times since 1994, as opposed to only three anecdotal reports of similar flying fox deaths before then. The bats started to die as temperatures approached 42C (107.6 degrees Farenheit), the study in Australia found. They are the first large mammal other than humans to be shown to suffer mass mortality during a heat wave. Hanging upside down from branches rather than sheltering in caves or other cooler roosts leaves them exposed to the sun in the daytime. Researchers said that as the temperatures rose the bats began making desperate attempts to cool down, first by using their wings to fan themselves and seeking shade in the trees, and then by panting and rubbing spittle over themselves. After several hours in the baking sun, members of the bat colonies began dropping off the trees, and were dead within 20 minutes. Up to 13 per cent of black flying foxes were killed by the heat in New South Wales and Queensland. Britain’s bats tend to shelter in caves where it is cooler but other mammals are likely to overheat as temperatures in the UK hit the mid-40s later in the century.

The UN Human Development Report 2007/2008 is a rousing call to arms, which firmly positions climate challenge as the most pressing moral issue of our time. Rich nations and their citizens account for the overwhelming bulk of greenhouse gas emissions locked in the Earth's atmosphere. But poor countries and their citizens will pay the highest price for it, as decades of development work are rolled back, destroying any chance of a sustainable future. Allowing the tragedy of climate change to happen, argues the Report, would represent such a systematic violation of the human rights of the world's poor and of future generations, that it would be "an outrage to the conscience of mankind". Passionately and eloquently, it hammers home its central message: that the world lacks neither the financial resources nor the technological capacities to act - if we fail to address climate change, it will be because of a simple lack of political will. And such an outcome, says the report, would represent "not just a failure of political imagination and leadership, but A MORAL FAILURE ON A SCALE UNPARALLELED IN HISTORY." We are at a crucial stage in the battle to protect the world’s people from rising temperatures in the Earth’s atmosphere. We need nothing short of a revolution in the way we run our economies, the way we produce and consume, and the way we measure human welfare. Governments urgently need to redefine security, and to recognise that climate change poses by far the greatest threat to our own security, and to that of future generations. And as the quotation from Martin Luther King at the front of the report reminds us: “There is such a thing as being too late”. The world has less than a decade to change course.

Thursday, November 29, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Use what talents you possess:
the woods would be very silent if no birds sang there except those that sang best.
Henry Van Dyke

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/28/07 -
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - Residents living in coastal areas of Pangasinan were thrown into panic Tuesday night after water from the Lingayen Gulf began to rise and flooded their houses. At least 280 families were taken to various evacuation centers. “The water began to rise at about 6 p.m. (Tuesday) and subsided at about 5 a.m. (Wednesday)." A magnitude 6 tremor struck nearby at 12:27 p.m. Tuesday, but the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that the rise in sea water was a "northeast surge enhanced by typhoon “Lando" (Hagibis), not caused by the quake and not a tsunami. (photo)
Many were puzzled by the waves because Typhoon Mitag, which lashed the northern Philippines on Monday, had weakened into a storm and then blew out of the country toward southern Japan, causing the weather to improve by Tuesday. [additional info under the Tropical Storm section below]

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 26W was 504 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

PHILIPPINES - Typhoon “Mina” (Mitag) on Wednesday dissipated while tropical depression “Lando” (Hagibis) moved farther away from the country, but not before spawning large waves in the western coasts of Luzon and Mindanao. Two small passenger ferries were crossing Taal Lake in Batangas south of the capital Manila when strong winds brought about by Mina triggered huge waves and overturned the boats Tuesday night. Three people were confirmed drowned, while about 30 others were rescued. Six others remain missing. The bureau has warned fishermen and sailors of big waves, particularly in the western coast of Northern Luzon because of the prevailing northeast monsoon. The big waves buffeted coastal villages in Pangasinan, the Zamboanga peninsula, Northern Mindanao and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao on Tuesday night. Big waves threatened coastal villages in Jolo, Sulu, Pangasinan, La Union, Misamis Oriental and Zamboanga City. In Jolo, Sulu, a 3-year-old boy was killed when his house was washed away as strong waves hit two coastal villages on Tuesday night. The waves also destroyed at least 50 houses in the villages of Tulay and Busbus. In Iligan City, residents fled their homes as huge waves hit and destroyed houses in coastal villages. In Misamis Oriental, a storm surge inundated 53 villages in 16 towns on Tuesday night, forcing 1,160 families to flee their homes. No casualties were reported. Ten-foot-high waves struck coastal villages at 7 p.m. Tuesday, leaving 800 homes damaged and destroying a 12-meter seawall in Naawan town. 16 towns were on alert level as PAGASA warned that more big waves could be expected. In Lingayen, Pangasinan, a surge of water from the Lingayen Gulf flooded homes in coastal areas, sending residents into a panic as tsunami rumors swept the province following the intensity 6 earthquake. What worsened the situation were text messages circulating that warned of a tsunami following the earthquake whose epicenter was 86 km west of Lingayen.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ALASKA - Tower tilt and avalanche danger close slopes - Snow pressing down on Alyeska's Chair 6 pushed one of the towers out of alignment over the weekend, which, combined with continuing poor snow conditions, will delay skiing at least until Friday, resort officials said Tuesday. Tower 12 on the mountain's highest lift was discovered a few degrees out of alignment Monday after it apparently had been forced out of position by the pressure exerted when a crack opened up in the area. The tower's foundation tilted along with the tower itself. A lift engineer and soil engineers are working to realign the tower. Tuesday afternoon, the resort said everything would be shut down until Friday because of avalanche danger on the mountain. This is the first time a tower has been forced out of line at Alyeska. Avalanche danger has been rife in the area so far this season because of higher-than-normal temperatures and wet, heavy snow falling on the upper mountain, while the base has seen mostly rain. "All our base has been pretty much wiped out. Avalanche danger is still the main reason we've been closed." The poor snow conditions have left the slopes closed longer into the season than usual, with the resort closing the mountain during the normally busy Thanksgiving weekend because of the high avalanche danger.

SPACE WEATHER-

FASTEST STAR - Astronomers using NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory have discovered ONE OF THE FASTEST STARS EVER SEEN - a "cosmic cannonball" that is challenging theories to explain its blistering speed. The name of the star is RX J0822-4300. It's a neutron star created by the Puppis A supernova explosion about 3700 years ago. Three Chandra observations clearly show the neutron star moving away from the center of the blast. Speed: 3 million mph! Other so-called "hypervelocity stars" have been previously discovered shooting out of the Milky Way with speeds around one million miles per hour. "The puzzle about this cosmic cannonball is how nature can make such a powerful cannon. The velocity might be explained by an unusually energetic explosion," but researchers remain unsure.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
Bird Flu - H5N1 has struck poultry in Romania & Saudi Arabia.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity.
Dorothy Parker

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/27/07 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.6 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.3 FIJI REGION
5.9 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
VIETNAM - Ho Chi Minh City is facing their HIGHEST FREAK-TIDE IN 48 YEARS. Thousands of people in Ho Chi Minh City were confused at flood-tides at a level of 1.49 meters on November 26, the highest in the past 48 years. Some 40 sections of the city’s dyke system have been broken and hundreds of pupils are unable to attend school. Meanwhile, the flood-tides are still forecast to be increased. Hundreds of households in the district have to deal with the tides. The area that has seen the most serious flooding has some homes inundated under 3 meters of water. “Two thirds of the 109-hectare streets are being flooded.” There is a risk of the breakdown of the dykes. “Women, the elderly and children have been evacuated on November 26. If there is any more dyke breaking, the rest will be relocated to higher areas.” When the tides rose, it caused traffic halt in a national highway. Meanwhile, people strived to bring their properties out of the flooded houses. Some companies and shops had to be closed. The tides were so strong that it sunk many documents and computers. The city irrigation and flood and storm prevention department forecasted that the peak tides may remain at 1.49 meters or more for two days.
High tides on the Sai Gon River in the last two days caused 38 sections of dike to collapse, flooding many houses in Thu Duc, Binh Thanh and Cu Chi districts. High tides on the rivers of Tuy An Song Cau in the south central province of Phu Yen caused 50 houses to collapse and sank 11 fishing vessels. Local authorities in the districts were continuing to evacuate people living in high-risk areas. The two-way lanes across Ca Pass have been blocked by huge rocks that had fallen on the road.

INDONESIA - High tides have flooded parts of the capital, Jakarta, with thousands forced to flee their homes. Pumps were installed to bring down water levels, which were 6ft high in places. But experts say that they expect tides to continue to wreak havoc through the end of the month.
The exceptionally high tides are part of an 18-year cycle. The situation is exacerbated by the failure to fix a sea barrier breached more than a week ago. Authorities pumped out some of the water, which was 23 feet (7 meters) deep in the worst hit areas and washed more than a mile (1.6 kilometers) inland Monday. At least 2,200 houses were inundated, some with chest-deep water. Part of the problem is global warming, which causes sea levels to rise and may make coastal cities like Jakarta especially vulnerable to flooding and monsoon storms.

VOLCANOES -
Volcanic eruptions cause a sea level spike - The fiercest volcanic eruptions affect global sea level in unexpected ways – at least, in the short term – according to a new study. Particles produced by major eruptions are known to block out sunlight and cool both the ground and the ocean. But computer modellers previously thought this might result in a drop in sea level, since water becomes denser as it cools. In fact, sea levels shoot up after an eruption – initially, at least. Researchers used monthly mean tide-gauge records to determine sea level following five major volcanic eruptions since 1890. They found that sea levels rose by around 9 millimetres following each eruption. This may be because volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, cooling the ocean surface, which reduces evaporation. "Lower evaporation causes an imbalance in water fluxes to and from the ocean," so that sea levels rise as rivers continue to top up the ocean. Evaporation returns to normal after about a year as the aerosols dissipate and the sea level declines from its peak, continuing to drop to a minimum of about 7 mm below the original level 2 to 3 years after the eruption. The drop is attrbuted to a combination of reduced runoff from the earlier drop in rainfall, reduced glacial melting resulting from the cool spell, and cooler sea water becoming denser.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - An increased activity on Karkar island volcano is worrying volcanologists and Madang residents because the lack of monitoring equipment means there is no way of knowing the dangers posed. Monitoring equipment set up in 2002 were destroyed within 24 hours of them being set up on the island. Images received this month confirmed that there has been an increase in thermal activity and gas emission from the SE and SW flanks of Bagiai cone on Karkar. The increase in thermal activity has resulted in vegetation dying near these two areas. People from Kevasop village on the southwest of the island heard low roaring noises in late October. Since that time Bagiai cone has been releasing thin white vapour visible from Kevasop village. There has been a vast increase in vapour and smoke compared to three months ago. The volcano last erupted in 1979, killing two volcanologists on the island.

PERU - In an attempt to avoid exposing citizens to unnecessary risks in the case of an eruption, the Municipality of Alto Selva Alegre in Arequipa, Peru - the district closest to the Misti volcano - has prohibited new constructions near and around areas considered unsafe. Authorities have stated that building too close to the volcano would increase the number of problems in the case of an eruption. "The areas where buildings should not be erected have already been established. The idea is to prevent a disaster. Studies have been done and dangerous areas have been identified. People are becoming more aware of the importance of being prepared and avoiding a disaster." Civil Defense stated that signs indicating evacuation routes and safe areas would be set up throughout the city during the month of November. The district of Alto Selva Alegre is just 12 kilometers from the Misti volcano.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 25W was 230 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical depression MITAG was 369 nmi SSW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Powerful typhoon Mitag weakened into a tropical storm and blew toward southern Japan on Tuesday, leaving at least 17 people dead in the Philippines. Twenty-one other people remain missing from Tropical Storm Mitag, as another weather disturbance - Tropical Depression Hagibis - crossed Mindoro island, south of Manila. Mitag weakened further as it hovered over the northern Babuyan islands with sustained winds of 65 kph (40 mph) and gusts of up to 80 kph (50 mph). It was forecast to be 210 kilometers (130 miles) south of Okinawa, Japan by this morning. Hagibis, which weakened from a tropical storm, blew across the southern half of Mindoro, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Manila around 4 p.m. (0800 GMT) Tuesday, packing winds of up to 55 kph (34 miles). Hagibis killed 13 people in the country last week before heading for Vietnam. It reversed its position and turned back to the Philippines, complicating emergency preparations. Fatalities from Mitag rose to 17 Tuesday, after three people were reportedly killed in western Palawan province and two men drowned in northern Cagayan province. Eighteen other people remain missing in Kalinga and nearby Apayao province, including two families with eight members each whose houses were washed out by landslides in Kalinga's Pinukpuk town. Two men reported missing in a landslide in Kalinga were later found alive. In northern Cagayan province, a 20-year old man is missing and may have drowned. A Philippine air force jet with two pilots also disappeared while searching for 26 Filipinos whose fishing boat sank last week near the Spratly islands in the South China Sea. Disaster relief officials said nearly 450,000 people were affected by Mitag, with more than 200,000 people moved to evacuation centers.

FLORIDA - The above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season predicted by top forecasters materialized this year, but fortunately for Florida, the state again was spared the widespread damage of the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Still, the 2007 season, which ends Friday, did not leave the island completely unscathed. Subtropical Storm Andrea, in early May, and Tropical Storm Noel, aided by a high-pressure system, eroded beaches throughout Palm Beach County. In late October, Noel ripped away sand behind the Imperial House condominium in South Palm Beach; the retaining wall there collapsed and some residents in the east building fled. A day later, crews brought in concrete blocks to protect the building from pounding waves. The mild season is a relief for residents and officials. This hurricane season did produce a lot of activity: 14 named storms and five hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. The number of named and major hurricanes that occurred was one less than predicted. Three tropical storms and one hurricane — Humberto — hit the United States. Two Category 5 hurricanes — Dean and Felix — struck Central America. Where forecasters at NOAA, Colorado State University and elsewhere missed the mark was in the intensity and duration of storms. Intensity and duration were less potent because La Nińa's impact on Atlantic basin weather was weaker than expected, "and this in turn favored stronger upper-level winds and increased wind shear. Hurricanes cannot live with high wind shear." Forecasters at NOAA are investigating why La Nińa — unusually cold ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific ocean — had less impact on Atlantic basin weather than predicted.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
ALGERIA - Floods killed three people and swept away houses and vehicles in the Algerian coastal town of Dellys, 100 km (62 miles) east of the capital Algiers, on Tuesday. Dozens of people had been injured and many were missing after several days of heavy rain. "It is a catastrophe: Houses destroyed, vehicles lost, and people are running in the streets looking for relatives." The floods caked streets in mud, swept away parts of two bridges that lead to the town and damaged a hospital. Heavy rains damaged water and power services in several villages on the Mediterranean coast east of Algiers. There was no firm estimate on the number of injured or missing.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Don't join the book burners. Don't think you're going to conceal faults
by concealing evidence that they ever existed. Don't be afraid to go
in your library and read every book.
Dwight D. Eisenhower

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/26/07 -
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.6 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - The Essex coast was on flood alert Sunday night after a FREAK TIDE engulfed a popular waterfront, completely swamping a number of cars. The surge happened at Brightlingsea at around noon when a spring tide led to the sea rising over the town's hard and as far up as the Waterside fish and chip restaurant. In Suffolk and Norfolk the tide breached sea walls and coastguards were warning last night that a further tidal surge was expected at about midnight. Environment Agency workers had been to Brightlingsea earlier in the day yesterday handing out sandbags to the fish and chip shop. Predictions of an UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDE had not reached members of the Brentwood Sea Angling Club who had chartered a boat for a day's fishing. The three members who drove themselves and other members to meet the boat at 8am parked their cars next to the hard and were only told about the tidal surge when they were out at sea and it had already happened. “We didn't know there was going to be an excessively high tide and left our cars here. The boat's skipper got a call from one of his colleagues and he asked where we had parked our cars and when we said 'along the front' he told us the water had come excessively high.” The cars are believed to be written off after being swamped by sea water. The FREAK tide was due to a combination of an astrological high tide, a surge along the North Sea and slightly windy conditions. Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk were all the subject of flood watches, which meant flooding of low lying land and roads was expected but was not as serious as a flood warning or a severe flood warning. (photos)

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Using new techniques, scientists plan to more accurately map the path of lava from Kilauea in an effort to anticipate a curious eruption that isn't quite like any the experts have seen before. The lava flow emerging from a crack near the Kupaianaha vent built itself a huge channel raised above the surrounding terrain, a milelong elevated lava flume system 120 feet above ground level. Scientists say this kind of perched lava channel has never been seen before, and experts can't predict what will happen next. The stakes are high. The fissure is 11 miles from Pahoa Village, and has been pumping out an average of 500,000 cubic meters per day since the July 21 fissure eruption began. The channel has been directing that lava toward the northeast, in the general direction of Pahoa and rural subdivisions that surround the town, but the flow has repeatedly stalled short of populated areas. Recently, the flows advanced downhill to just below the 1,700-foot level in the Wao Kele O Puna rain forest, but it appeared possible the flow would stall again because the lava tube feeding it seemed to be blocked. Residents and civil defense officials have been monitoring the current eruptions, trying to predict where the lava would have to cross to reach Pahoa and Highway 130. The goal is to predict the lava's likely path if the flow becomes more focused and begins moving in a single direction. A lava flow may be moving downhill and abruptly stop and harden because of an interruption at the magma source. The cooled lava may then present an obstacle to future flows, causing the next flow to veer off in another direction.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 25W was 561 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.
Tropical depression HAGIBIS was 185 nmi SSW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm MITAG was 367 nmi N of Subic Bay, Philippines.

Typhoon Mitag slammed into the northeastern Philippines after killing at least 10 people elsewhere in the country, while another deadly storm that had blown away days earlier headed back Monday, complicating emergency preparations. A Philippine air force jet with two pilots also went missing in the foul weather while searching for 26 Filipinos whose fishing boat sank last week near the Spratly islands in the South China Sea. Two villagers were also reported missing when raging river currents swept away their house in the northern mountain province of Apayao. Most of the typhoon fatalities occurred over the weekend in the eastern provinces of Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte, before Mitag changed course and roared into the coastal town of Palanan, further north in Isabela province. Mitag weakened into a tropical storm later Monday and was moving away from the northern Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 110 kph (68 mph) and gusts of up to 140 kph (87 mph). After hitting land in Isabela late Sunday, the typhoon veered toward the country's mountainous northern provinces, where authorities evacuated thousands of people due to fears of landslides. The typhoon flooded at least 50 villages in Isabela, a province of more than a million people where most were without power. In nearby Cagayan province, strong winds toppled trees and knocked down power poles, cutting off electricity in the province of nearly a million. The province's rice industry suffered losses. "We were just one or two weeks away from harvest time. I'm afraid we've lost everything to the flood and strong winds." Mitag has been the most erratic of the 13 typhoons and major storms that have hit the Philippines this year. It first headed for the populous Bicol region, where more than 250,000 people were evacuated, but shifted Saturday to the north. Meanwhile, forecasters said another storm that killed 13 people in the Philippines last week before heading for Vietnam had reversed direction. Hagibis, which also weakened to a tropical storm, re-entered Philippine waters and was expected to lash the western province of Palawan today. Late Monday, it was packing maximum winds of 75 kph (47 mph) near the center and gusts of up to 90 kph (60 mph). Mitag and Hagibis were affecting each other, resulting in their erratic movements. Government forecasters were also monitoring a new low pressure area that could develop into a storm over the Pacific Ocean and affect the Philippines in a few days.
Twelve Chinese fishermen were reported missing for the last five days in south China's Nansha Islands after typhoon Hagibis swept through the sea area. The local fishery administration was still searching for the missing fishermen, who were working on net cages set up at the Meiji coral islands, an important fish farm base about 650 nautical miles from Sanya, the southern tip of Hainan. Some fishermen were on board an anchored ship. The missing fishermen were about 100 nautical miles from 300 Chinese and foreign fishermen, who took shelter in the Nansha islands to escape the typhoon since Friday. Hagibis blew into the South China sea on Wednesday and intensified into a typhoon a day later.
TAIWAN - Typhoon Mitag spared Taiwan by changing its course yesterday afternoon, but the Central Weather Bureau maintained its warning against continuous heavy rains for today and this year's lowest temperature of 14 degrees Celsius for tomorrow. CWB meteorologists said although the RARE typhoon in the month of November changed its direction from Taiwan, it still caused heavy rain and strong winds in many regions in Taiwan. Highway officials closed the Suhua Highway connecting Suao City and Hualien City on the eastern coast after three major landslides blocked the road. The meteorologists forecast that the 200-km radius of the tropical storm will shrink further while it makes its way toward Japan. CWB officials retained their warnings for high tides and strong winds for vessels operating in the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. They also called for people residing in northern and eastern Taiwan - especially in the mountainous areas of Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung - to be on alert for torrential rains and even "extremely heavy rainfall" for the next two days. Precautions should be taken against possible flash floods, landslides, and rock slides.

HEAVY RAINS -
ARKANSAS - Little Rock received 2.04 inches of rain through 6 pm Sunday, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD of 1.57 inches set in 1987.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

The Northern Hemisphere is on track for this year to be the warmest since record-keeping started 127 years ago. Hemisphere-wide, temperatures for January through October averaged 1.3 degrees above the norm and could break the record for the warmest year, set in 2003. The warming trend could impact the melting of Arctic sea ice and worsen drought conditions throughout the United States. In Salt Lake City, Utah, the summer of 2007 was the warmest ever on record. The months of June, July and August averaged 0.7 degrees warmer than they did in 1994 — the previous record-breaking year. July was Salt Lake City's hottest-ever record; August was its second-hottest. In addition, spring 2007 in Salt Lake City was the third-warmest ever recorded. Last winter, normally the wettest time of year in the Southwest, was unusually dry. Los Angeles had its driest "water year" (measured from July to June) on record with 3.21 inches of rain. As for the coming winter, the recently updated U.S. forecast by the Climate Prediction Center calls for UNUSUAL warmth to persist across most of the nation — 4 percent warmer than the 30-year average — continuing a decade-long trend of warm winters. Drought could begin to develop across the southern Plains, which until now has had a very wet year, according to the latest forecasts. Texas is experiencing its fourth-wettest year on record. The only areas forecast to be wetter-than-average this winter are in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley.

The terrible 2002 drought that shrivelled crops and farmer's incomes from Canada to Mexico, also slashed the earth's ability to absorb carbon by half, new data suggests. Data shows that during the North American drought in 2002, the soil, trees, crops and grasslands could absorb only half of the usual amount of carbon. Normally, the continent's natural carbon sinks — the terrestrial ecosystem — absorb approximately 650 million metric tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere. That's about one-third of the total North American emissions from human and natural sources. The study shows that in 2002, the amount the sinks absorbed plummeted to 320 million metric tonnes. That left the equivalent of the yearly emissions from more than 200 million cars in the atmosphere. Droughts leave fewer plants to absorb carbon dioxide. In another example of the effect, a heat wave and drought in Europe in 2003 left more than 500 million metric tons of carbon in the atmosphere. "If warming causes drought, and droughts end up releasing more carbon, and carbon causes warming, that's a positive feedback cycle that can get pretty scary."

CANADA - Late hibernation - At least three grizzly bears have been spotted in recent weeks in western Arctic communities, leading scientists and wildlife managers to wonder if warm weather is keeping the bears from hibernating. The majority of bears in the region go into their dens mid- to late-October. Prior to this year, the latest they had ever seen a bear out was Nov. 5. It is possible that some of the bears started hibernating, but then came out of their dens because of milder than usual weather. "So if there is a warm day, or if there's a lot of noise outside the den, it's not uncommon for the bear just to come and check it out, especially in early spring or late fall when it's not super-cold yet."

Monday, November 26, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A bird does not sing because it has an answer.
It sings because it has a song.
Chinese Proverb

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/25/07 -
6.5 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.9 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.7 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 PAKISTAN

INDONESIA - 4 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.9 or higher - Two strong earthquakes struck off the eastern Indonesian island of Sumbawa, killing at least six people and injuring more than 70 others. The first quake, measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale struck 50 kilometres north-west of the Raba district town on Sumbawa island in West Nusa Tenggara just after midnight (local time). It occurred about 50 kilometres beneath the seabed. At least three people were killed, while scores of homes and buildings were badly damaged by the quakes, the latest in series of shocks to strike in Indonesia in recent days. The death toll may rise further as rescue workers and health volunteers were still assessing the situation. A 6.5-magnitude aftershock took place about three hours later, adding to the damage of homes and buildings as well panicking residents who had fled their homes after the initial quake. Antara, Indonesia's state-run news agency, put the death toll at six with hundreds of others injured. More than 70 people were injured in three different sub-district areas while over 500 homes and other buildings were totally destroyed by the quakes. Witnesses said electricity was temporarily cut in some places, including a hospital, which was briefly evacuated. Hundreds of homeless were sheltered at makeshift tents as aftershocks continue to rattle the region. A fresh 5.9-magnitude aftershock struck at 4:15 pm (0815 GMT), seismologists said, triggering further panic among frightened residents. A brief tsunami warning was issued but lifted later after no tidal waves materialized. The quakes were also felt on the nearby islands of Lombok and Bali. Another 6.0-magnitude quake hit off the western coast of West Sumatra early Monday, causing panic among residents but there were no reports of casualties or damage.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - The Thames Barrier has been closed for the third time this month to protect London from a combined high tide and tidal surge. It was closed by the Environment Agency at 10am November 25 and it is possible that more closures may take place in the next few days. Tidal surges in the Thames Estuary of up to 1.2m are forecast due to a low pressure weather system over Norway. This causes northerly winds over the North Sea which push water down between Holland and the east coast of the United Kingdom.

VOLCANOES -
NICARAGUA - The Concepcion volcano sent huge columns of ash into the sky in eruptions that prompted a ripple of small earthquakes. The volcano, one of two on an island in the region's largest lake, erupted Saturday night and related earthquakes continued to rattle the area on Sunday. No one was injured by the blast. The volcano is located 100 kilometers (60 miles) southeast of the capital, Managua, on an island popular with adventure tourists in Lake Nicaragua, Central America's largest lake. Ash rained down on local communities on Sunday, and strong winds carried it toward the capital.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HAGIBIS was 416 nmi WSW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Typhoon MITAG was 124 nmi NE of Baguio City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - 3 storms - Typhoon Mina (international codename Mitag) accelerated and made landfall over Palanan, Isabela late Sunday night and is threatening other provinces in Northern Luzon. The typhoon also threatened Northern and Central Luzon, particularly the Cagayan Valley region. The typhoon was moving northwest at 13 kms per hour with sustained winds of 160 kph and gustiness of up to 195 kph. Mina was expected to cross extreme Northern Luzon Sunday night into this morning. It was forecast to be 140 kms northwest of Aparri, Cagayan tonight. PAGASA forecast the typhoon to be 200 kms northwest of Aparri Tuesday evening. The typhoon is expected to be 110 kms north of Basco by Wednesday. Another weather disturbance threatened to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility Sunday even before typhoon Mina made landfall over Northern and Central Luzon. The weather disturbance was named Nonoy and is expected to be within the PAR in three to four days. Nonoy might join with typhoon Lando (international codename Hagibis) before it exits via the Philippine Sea toward Japan. Lando, meanwhile, is expected to re-enter the country and hit Palawan on Tuesday. Lando's movement is being affected by Mina's due to the Fujiwhara effect. The Fujiwhara effect is brought about by the interaction between two tropical cyclones at an appreciable distance, usually when two storm formations are within 15 degrees of each other. "We will evacuate those at risk from storm surges and flash floods. These typhoons are moving slow. They will be dumping a lot of rain."
"With the President's instructions to do a preemptive evacuation, we have witnessed ONE OF THE LARGEST MASS EVACUATIONS IN PHILIPPINE HISTORY."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Further flooding from next month to February is possible in parts of the country due to heavy rainfall, the National Weather Service predicted. The continuous rainfall is due to the development of La Nina over the Pacific Ocean. The Port Moresby Weather office recorded 430mm of rainfall for this month, which is 147mm more than the last HIGHEST RECORD OF NOVEMBER RAIN in 1973. The high rainfall this month means that this year may go on to be the wettest year that Port Moresby has experienced.
Disaster officials in Papua New Guinea's flood-ravaged Oro Province are warning people to avoid unexploded wartime bombs and shells uncovered by surging waters. The province was the scene of vicious fighting between Australian and Japanese troops in World War II. Unexploded bombs and shells lie buried in the war zone. The death toll from the flooding has passed 170. Thousands of villagers were left homeless after heavy rains associated with tropical cyclone Guba lashed the province, sending torrents of water and uprooted trees down the rivers. No major disease outbreaks had been reported, but injured people in remote areas need to be evacuated to hospitals and cases of diarrhoea were rising.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NORTH CAROLINA - The number of wildfires in North Carolina is up 30 percent this year over the average for the past decade.

CALIFORNIA - Meteorologists are predicting a La Nińa winter, which typically means scant rainfall in Southern California. To the east, an eight-year drought is racking the Colorado River Basin. To the north, a judge's ruling protecting the delta smelt could curtail water deliveries from the Sacramento Delta by 30%. The snowpack last week was 3% of normal for this time of year in the Sierra Nevada. "We're bone dry right now." Last week, the Los Angeles Metropolitan Water District announced that it would buy large amounts of water from Central Valley farmers at higher than normal prices in hopes of staving off water shortages. The district, which imports water to serve 26 cities and water agencies, warned that rate increases might be in the offing. Long Beach has imposed mandatory restrictions on lawn sprinkling and other water uses. The Los Angeles Mayor's call for a voluntary 10% reduction in water use has fallen short so far. The city plans to wait several more months before deciding whether to impose restrictions.
Wildfire photos.

VIRGINIA - the high Thursday in Norfolk — 78 degrees — tied the record for the date set in 1991. The high of 74 degrees at Wallops Island BROKE THE RECORD of 68 degrees from 1983. Recent rainfall has helped relieve drought-like conditions, but the region remains about 4 inches below the seasonal norm and about 12 inches below normal for the year.

GEORGIA - The grand old trees of Atlanta may become just a memory if rainfall does not quench the ongoing drought soon, experts said. "There is a public perception a lot of times that those are just untouchable, so nothing can hurt them. Physiologically, it's actually the opposite. The big old trees are much easier to stress out and damage than the young trees." Experts are also concerned that the older trees could be significantly damaged by a frigid winter and even by heavy spring rains next year.

OKLAHOMA - Oklahoma City set a RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE Tuesday afternoon, reaching 82 degrees a little before 4 p.m. The temperature recorded at Will Rogers World Airport knocked out the previous record for Nov. 20 of 78 degrees set in 1989. Wichita Falls, Texas, also set a record at 85 degrees and Tulsa topped out at 80, a degree shy of a record 81 set in 1989. Temperatures this month have been running about seven degrees above average.

KENTUCKY - “The year's not over yet, but it's been remarkable.” The year began with a warmer than average January. Temperatures in January were about 4.5 degrees above normal. Then February came along and temperatures were well below normal. And in March, temperatures were up again and averaged about 8 degrees above normal. Temperatures took a downward turn again in April with a late frost. This late freeze damaged or destroyed crops and plants across the region. Many Logan County farmers found themselves having to start over after the plants that were just beginning to bud were killed. “The one theme that stood out this year is that we were dry really from about the beginning of the year.” The situation began to worsen through June and July as very little rain fell. By August, many began to fear the worst and farmers began talking about how this was shaping up to be one of the worst droughts in decades. Then the heat wave hit. “We had the warmest August on record across Kentucky.” In Bowling Green, the average high daily temperature was 98 degrees which was about 11 degrees over normal. For 30 consecutive days the temperature was 92 degrees or above. Farmers, who had already been hit hard with the late freeze, watched as their ponds dried up and their crops withered. Then, after the driest summer on record, much-needed rain fell in October making it the wettest October on record with rainfalls exceeding 8 inches. “The rains in October were EXTREMELY UNUSUAL.” While this helped with the overall rainfall total, the region is still several inches below normal for the year. As we head into winter, the long-range forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is for a season that is warmer and wetter than average. This prediction is based on the persistence of a weak-to-moderate La Nińa.

Weather-related disasters have quadrupled over the last two decades, a leading British charity said in a report published on Sunday. From an average of 120 disasters a year in the early 1980s, there are now as many as 500, with Oxfam attributing the rise to unpredictable weather conditions cause by global warming. "This year we have seen floods in South Asia, across the breadth of Africa and Mexico that have affected more than 250 million people. This is no freak year. It follows a pattern of more frequent, more erratic, more unpredictable and more extreme weather events that are affecting more people. The number of people affected by disasters has risen by 68%, from an average of 174 million a year between 1985 to 1994 to 254 million a year between 1995 to 2004. Action is needed now to prepare for more disasters otherwise humanitarian assistance will be overwhelmed and recent advances in human development will go into reverse."

UNITED KINGDOM - Have our seasons gone blooming mad? First it was the daffodils. The bright yellow flowers which usually signify that spring is on its way made the headlines after making a four-month-early appearance in the garden of a Hampshire pensioner. Flower experts were baffled, calling the strange appearance "VERY, VERY UNUSUAL". But in the latest sign that the world has gone blooming mad, confused flowers have been popping up out of season across Hampshire. Despite the freezing temperatures, strong winds and lashing rain, three more unseasonal blooms have sprung up in gardens in Southampton. A resident was shocked to see that the lupin flower she planted in the spring of this year was in bloom in November, more than eight months early. "It's very strange...They usually don't flower in their first year, and even in their second year they are supposed to flower in June or July." Another resident got a similar shock when she returned from a week's holiday in October to find the primroses in her garden at Monarch Way, West End, in bloom. "I was sitting in my garden in September and I couldn't believe it - the primrose buds were out. Then I went away for a week's cruise and when I came back they were in flower. It's EXTREMELY STRANGE, because they usually come into bloom in the spring, around the same time as daffodils." At the start of November, a resident of Bassett, Southampton, discovered her narcissi had also decided to blossom months in advance. The flower, miniature relative of the daffodil, is usually expected to come into bloom at the start of the spring. And it is not just flowers that are acting strangely. Catkins - which usually herald the start of spring - were on a hazel tree earlier this month. "I have lived here 20 years and it's the first time I have ever seen the catkins come out early." And there were more early-flowering daffodils in Eastleigh this week. "There are all sorts of weird and wonderful things going on right now. I think the strange blooming has something to do with the fact that it has been a warm autumn. The weather is so crazy at the moment - it stayed warm much later this autumn, so perhaps the flowers thought it was spring again."

CHILE - (11/20)Tuesday’s peak temperature of 34 degrees Celsius (93.2 degrees Fahrenheit) fell just short of Monday’s high of 34.8 degrees Celsius (94.6 degrees Farenheit), the hottest temperature recorded in Santiago so far this month and ONE OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES REGISTERED IN NOVEMBER IN RECENT HISTORY. The heat wave has not been limited to Santiago: Cities across Chile’s central zone reported high temperatures on Monday, and two forest fires were sparked in the Valparaíso region. Experts at Chile’s Meteorological Office attribute the heat to La Nińa, a phenomenon characterized by abnormally low water temperatures in large expanses of the Pacific Ocean between the coasts of South America and Oceania. The phenomenon, usually limited to the winter months, has exhibited anomalous behavior this year by peaking in the spring and summer. The projected result is extreme summer heat in Chile’s Central Valley, including temperatures that may surpass Santiago’s highest-ever recorded temperature of 37.2 degrees Celsius (nearly 99 degrees Fahrenheit), registered in 1915.

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne's homes are cracking up and the problem will become worse next year. Inner-city suburbs are being hardest hit as soil continues to dry out because of the prolonged drought, placing further strain on buildings, a new study has revealed. Carlton North tops the list of the 10 worst suburbs with 75 per cent of homes inspected showing damage caused by cracks. Inspections of almost 58,000 homes in 214 localities found the most dangerous cracks appeared around doors and windows, or diagonally along the wall, which indicated a weakness in the walls from serious stress.

Sunday, November 25, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Whatever is in any way beautiful hath its source of beauty in itself, and is complete in itself;
praise forms no part of it. So it is none the worse nor the better for being praised.
Marcus Aurelius Antoninus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.1 quake in SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/24/07 -
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
11/23/07 -
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.3 TONGA
5.3 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
11/22/07 -
6.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
6.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.3 SOUTHERN IRAN
11/21/07 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.8 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

A new mystery faces scientists who study stresses that trigger earthquakes: Even the rise and fall of the ocean's tides are strong enough to trigger pulses of underground tremors that periodically send seismic faults slowly slipping beneath the northwest coast of the U.S. Readings from detectors on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and across Vancouver Island in British Columbia, revealed that twice a day when it's high tide, the strength of the faint tremors increases, and twice a day at low tide, the underground tremors grow fainter. Because it's the moon's gravity, as well as the sun's, that causes the tides to rise and fall, those heavenly bodies are, in fact, exerting their legendary influence from afar to alter seismic activity deep beneath the Earth's surface. But no one knows how or why gravity should reach into the Earth's deep interior. Along the Pacific coast from Northern California below Eureka and up into British Columbia and beyond - a region called the Cascadia Subduction Zone - flurries of non-volcanic tremors seem to occur deep underground roughly every 14 months, and typically last as long as two or three weeks. Non-volcanic tremors that are somewhat similar, and possibly also linked to tidal action, have been reported by Japanese earthquake researchers. And while a single tremor may be recorded as tiny, three weeks of them in succession can release as much energy as a large earthquake. "Although we expected that the weight of the water at high tide would be more likely to damp down on the tremors and weaken them, instead the tremors were stronger at high tide and weaker at low tide."

ALASKA - a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist on Monday laid out evidence that an earthquake, as big as magnitude 7.0, is likely to happen soon on the Castle Mountain fault. The fault is of concern because of how closely it passes to people and projects. It arcs across the central Matanuska-Susitna Borough from the Talkeetna Mountains near Sutton in the east toward the Susitna River in southwest Mat-Su. Along the way, it cuts above the borough's most populated area but goes through several subdivisions as well as across the Parks Highway and the Alaska Railroad. A study showed four major earthquakes along the fault in 2,700 years, roughly one every 700 years. The last big earthquake happened between 667 and 694 years ago. "This gives us an idea that we might be entering the time when we're due for an earthquake." Timing is right for a shallow quake on the west end of the fault line. Shallow quakes often hit with more force and cause more damage than earthquakes that originate from deeper underground. Alaska's Good Friday 1964 earthquake, at magnitude 9.2, was both strong and shallow.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 shook Papua New Guinea on Thursday, reportedly plunging parts of the second largest city Lae into darkness. Water tanks burst, goods were knocked off shelves and television sets tumbled to the floor in hotel rooms, but there were no immediate reports of casualties. "It was a ripper, it emptied our shelves and smashed glasses." The quake rattled the area for some time and was the biggest many residents had felt.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BANGLADESH - Ten people died in a stampede and of heart attacks in Patuakhali, Bagerhat and Barguna on Thursday night as a pandemonium followed false rumours that a heavy tidal surge was going to hit the coastal districts. Of them, seven died in Barguna. Sources said some youth on three motorbikes warned people in Barguna town at about 8:00pm Thursday that a huge wave from the sea was going to hit soon. Hearing the news, shopkeepers downed their shutters and people of all ages came out of their houses and started running helter-skelter, triggering a stampede. The rumour soon spread across the district and to neighbouring Patuakhali.

OREGON - A series of UNUSUALLY HIGH tides, separated by some UNUSUALLY LOW tides, could leave Oregon beaches looking a little different this weekend. Waves are expected to reach farther than they have in some time, and the water could easily float even the big logs and tree trunks that appear firmly anchored to the beach. Tidal heights vary along the coast, but at Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport anything above 10 feet is considered quite strong. High tide was expected to hit 10.3 feet Friday at 10:04 a.m., followed by 10.6-foot high tides at 10:48 a.m. Saturday and 11:33 a.m. today. The last time high tide hit 10.6 feet at that location was Jan. 11, 2005. In between will be some unusually low tides that will top minus 2 feet. The strong tides don’t make sneaker waves any more likely, but they can be extra dangerous at such times because the high tides leave little room for escape and the low tides create extremely strong outgoing currents. “You definitely want to watch the water. Don’t turn your back to the water.”

CALIFORNIA - The holiday weekend was expected to be a busy one for weather, as cold temperatures, monster waves and fire-spreading low humidity moved into the region. A coastal flood advisory was issued on Friday and Saturday as large waves - predicted to reach over 7 feet - pummelled the coast, bringing the possibility of overflow into low-lying areas such as Del Mar and Cardiff. Coastal areas could also see strong rip currents.

SPAIN - A father and his 5-year-old son were swept to their deaths off a Spanish beach Wednesday after an extremely big wave knocked his two children into the sea. The parents had paused to take photographs of their sons sitting on rocks at Tossa de Mar when they were hit by a 10ft (3m) wave. The father faced an agonising choice over which son to rescue first as the boys were dragged into the Mediterranean by a strong undercurrent. He managed to pull the 9 year-old to safety but was dragged to his death in a failed attempt to save the 5 year-old. They managed to cling briefly to a lifebuoy in the bay but were overcome by the waves and current and were swept further out to the sea. Dozens of local people had attempted to help to save the father and son but were defeated by the waves and wind. The episode is reminiscent of the deaths of three British tourists in the seas off the Algarve in Portugal last month. Spain has been hit by storms since the beginning of the week, with heavy rain battering the south in particular and forcing some people to evacuate their homes.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Lava from Kilauea volcano's 4-month-old East Rift vent suddenly changed its eruption pattern Wednesday, leaving uncertainty about what will come next. The latest flows from the area of the "July 21 vent" appeared mostly headed south toward the sea, the same direction flows traveled for much of the previous 17 years. The observatory warned Royal Gardens residents 4.5 miles downslope to remain alert for the next few days, although it is not clear that there are any permanent residents in the subdivision, which was repeatedly overrun by lava from 1983 to 1986. Another pahoehoe flow traveled "a few hundred meters" to the north, toward an unpopulated area. The outbreak of the July 21 vent on that date interrupted 17 years of flows from Puu Oo, 1.5 miles upslope to the west, which had predictably moved downslope through uninhabited areas to the sea. Flows from the vent eventually created a deep channel, like a river with high banks. At the end of the channel, flows fanned out in many directions, changing almost daily, and only going a few miles before petering out. But authorities were quietly concerned that flows could eventually threaten populated areas such as Pahoa if they went on long enough, although that might take months or years. During one recent week the flow pattern developed into a wide arc that pointed mostly away from Pahoa and back toward the sea. Wednesday's change was noteworthy because the July 21 vent mostly stopped feeding the channel. Instead, the new flows were coming from the banks of the "river."
The new lava outbreak from Kilauea volcano hasn't gained much ground over the last few days, easing fears that it could threaten Kalapana and the Royal Gardens subdivision. Researchers observed from a flight Friday that the "Thanksgiving eve" flows advanced just 330 feet, stalled and began to pool. Close to 200 structures were destroyed by lava since Kilauea's current eruption began in 1983. An average of 500,000 cubic meters of molten rock has emerged daily since it first broke through in July.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - The West New Britain disaster office has confirmed the build-up of seismic activity in the Sulu area was volcanic related. This was after a physical survey was done in the area by disaster officers last week. Frequent earthquakes were felt during Nov 11 and 15. Seismographs strongly indicate volcanic activity but it is not likely that Mt Pago will erupt soon. They are currently monitoring the situation carefully.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HAGIBIS was 392 nmi E of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.
Typhoon MITAG was 190 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.

BANGLADESH - At least three people were killed and nearly 100 injured in Bangladesh when a road bridge packed with hundreds of cyclone survivors waiting for food aid collapsed into a river.

PHILIPPINES - Around 100,000 people in the northeastern part of the country will be evacuated as tropical storm Mina (Mitag) changed direction at dawn Saturday and was forecast to make landfall in the provinces of Aurora and Isabela this evening, instead of in the Bicol region as earlier predicted. The estimated 250,000 evacuees in Bicol will still not be allowed to return to their homes until the weather conditions in the region improve. The region will still be battered by heavy rains that could trigger landslides and flashfloods. The storm is moving very slowly and is likely to intensify to a super typhoon.

VIETNAM has asked nearby countries to give shelter to thousands of its fishermen from the tropical storm nearing the Spratly archipelago in the South China Sea, the government said on Wednesday. Nearly 74,000 fishermen were working off Vietnam's coast in the path of Storm Hagibis as of early Wednesday. The storm is the seventh to hit Vietnam this year. Hagibis will land on Vietnam's resort town of Phan Thiet this weekend. It will pose a major danger to southern Vietnam, a region RARELY struck by typhoons or tropical storms. Rains from Storm Hagibis will disrupt coffee drying and postpone the harvest peak in the Central Highlands key growing region to early next month, posing risk of delay for December deliveries. Heavy rains from the storm, which has triggered landslides that killed nine people in the Philippines as of Tuesday, could also disrupt rice loading at the key Saigon Port. Storms RARELY strike Vietnam in November as the storm and flood season often ends in the central region in October.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW YORK - a RECORD-SETTING Thanksgiving rainfall soaked parts of the western region. Over a 24-hour period, from about 11 p.m. to 11 a.m., Buffalo saw it's heaviest rain of the year with a total of 2.42 inches.

CHINA - Workers clearing a landslide in central China discovered a bus under the rubble, three days after the accident, and 29 bodies were later recovered. The landslide had already resulted in one confirmed death, that of a worker building a tunnel on a slope above the highway, and left two of his colleagues missing. The landslide tore a 165-foot gash in a mountainside Tuesday and heightened concern that the vast reservoir of the Three Gorges Dam, 120 miles away, was wreaking ecological havoc in the region. A government meeting in September warned of a potential increase in landslides and other seismic activity because the rising dam water is seeping into surrounding areas, weakening hillsides of soil and shale. Residents say they are worried about cracks in their walls and some have felt the ground shift.

SOUTH AFRICA - FREAK weather yesterday killed two people in Johannesburg and large parts of the southern Cape were devastated by floods. One person was killed and two were injured when a tree uprooted by the storm flattened their car in Akademie Street, near the University of Johannesburg in Auckland Park, late yesterday. A heavy thunderstorm hit Johannesburg at about 4pm, causing havoc on the roads. In the southern Cape, rescue workers in helicopters and boats battled to save scores of people threatened by raging flood waters. Torrential storms dumped more than 200mm of rain in 24 hours, washing away roads and flooding homes and farms from Hermanus to George. More rain is expected today over large parts of the country, including the already flooded Overberg. An Air Force helicopter rescued six people stranded on islands of high ground in the Greyton area. “The whole valley is under water, which makes it very difficult to quantify the damage.” One of the main roads serving Bredasdorp had been cut off and many secondary roads in the region were impassable. The rain had been caused by a “cut off low-pressure system”. “It’s UNUSUAL, but we get 10 to 12 of them every year.” Rough seas, with waves in excess of 5m, are expected to develop between Cape Columbine and Algoa.
Dramatic stories of survival and tragedy emerged after torrential rains battered the southern Cape, demolishing homes and sweeping away one of the world’s premier beaches. The holiday towns of Plettenberg Bay, Knysna, George and Sedgefield were yesterday counting the cost of the worst flooding yet seen in the region. Up to 1800 people — evacuated by boats, air force helicopters and 4x4 vehicles — left their temporary shelters to find scenes of devastation as the rains let up. This is the WORST FLOODING PLETT HAS EVER SEEN.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Hollywood stars were among 10,000 people forced to flee as wind-driven wildfires tore through the celebrity enclave of Malibu, gutting nearly 50 multi-million dollar homes and threatening hundreds more. Fires erupted at around 3.30am, spreading rapidly through tinder-dry brush as winds gusting to up to 80 km/h fanned the inferno. It was the second major blaze to hit Malibu in a month. Firestorms by late Saturday had scorched at least 4,650 acres, destroyed nearly 50 homes and damaged more than two dozen more. All told, as many as 14,000 people were forced to leave their homes. Firefighters and heavy equipment had been on call throughout Southern California for days amid "red flag" forecasts calling for the hot, dry gusts. It wasn't until late Friday that the winds finally came. Los Angeles has had record low rainfalls this year, with just 8.15 cm between January 1 and June 30 - a fifth of the average rainfall and the lowest since records began 130 years ago.

Levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas emitted by burning fossil fuels, hit a RECORD HIGH in the atmosphere in 2006, accelerating global warming. But concentrations of methane, the number two heat-trapping gas, flattened out in a hint that Siberian permafrost is staying frozen despite some scientists' fears that rising temperatures might trigger a runaway thaw. Carbon dioxide is the main gas from human activities blamed by the UN climate panel for stoking warming. Levels rose 0.53 per cent from 2005 to 381.2 parts per million of the atmosphere, 36 per cent above levels before the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century. Levels of nitrous oxide, the number three greenhouse gas produced by burning fuels and by industrial processes, also rose to a RECORD with a 0.25 per cent gain in 2006. Levels are 320 parts per billion, 19 per cent above pre-industrial times. Rising levels could disrupt the climate, producing more heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising ocean levels. But levels of methane, which comes from sources such as rotting vegetation in landfills, termites, rice paddies and the digestive process of cows, dipped 0.06 per cent to 1782 parts per billion in 2006. "A widespread melt of Siberian permafrost is a possibility but there is no sign of it in this data. If it was happening it would turn up in these figures.”

INDIANA - the mild autumn has produced an UNUSUAL late display of colorful foliage, with many trees still hanging onto their leaves into late November. Leaves typically turn early after years with a hot, dry summer but the opposite happened after this year's summer-long drought. It's been a VERY UNUSUAL year in terms of fall colors. Indiana's trees should be pretty well bare by now. The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has recorded warmer average temperatures for most of this fall, but below-average temps for November thus far.

NEW YORK - Call it global warming or another freak of nature, but this year the deer-hunting scenario was different. The forests of Harriman State Park and then the Catskills looked like they were at peak or just past peak in fall foliage. The mountainsides glistened with color. Furthermore, when the season opened, hunters witnessed bucks chasing does wanting to fulfill the mating ritual. Hunters are frustrated by the fact that trees are still holding their leaves. "We've noticed an extremely late leaf fall. Many maples and copper beech are still green and full of leaves, and that doesn't work well for tree-stand hunting." The UNUSUAL conditions have forced changes in hunting strategy. "In some areas, oaks are still dropping acorns...Deer were feeding and bedding in the same areas rather than the usual 'feed at night, then travel to thicket bedding areas' routine."

ODD -
A FREAK jellyfish attack has wiped out Northern Ireland's only salmon farm. More than 100,000 fish worth more than $2.38 million were killed in the invasion at Glenarm Bay and Red Bay, on the County Antrim northeast coast. "We are still assessing the full extent, but it's a disaster. In 30 years, I've never seen anything like it. It was UNPRECEDENTED, absolutely amazing. The sea was red with these jellyfish and there was nothing we could do about it, absolutely nothing. I have never experienced such concentrations of jellyfish spread over such a wide area. The vastness was unbelievable." The seven-hour attack last week saw the jellyfish covering a sea area of up to 26 sq km and 11m deep. The species of jellyfish responsible, Pelagia nocticula - popularly known as the mauve stinger - is noted for its purplish night-time glow and its propensity for terrorising bathers in the warmer Mediterranean Sea. Until the past decade, the mauve stinger has rarely been spotted so far north in British or Irish waters, and scientists cite this as evidence of global warming.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-RECALLED - Sweetwater Valley Farms, Inc. of Philadelphia, Tennessee, is recalling Southern Cheddar Jack Volunteer Special Cheese because it has the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.
-RECALLED - Le Gourmet Connection of Lebanon, Tennessee, is recalling Jack Cheese because it has the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

A mystery disease that has hit nearly 400 Angolans is associated with high levels of bromide. More than half the patients are under 15. At least four people have died. The first case of the disease was reported in October in the capital, Luanda. Symptoms include fever and extreme drowsiness. If bromide is indeed the cause of the outbreak, it is not clear how patients were exposed to it.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Who does not thank for little, will not thank for much.
Estonian proverb

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/20/07 -
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 TONGA
6.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.7 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

NEW HAMPSHIRE - A minor earthquake shook the Portsmouth area yesterday, rattling residents, knocking objects off shelves and damaging at least one home. No injuries were reported. Residents began flooding the police and news outlets with calls late in the morning. "Some of the residents reported a very loud explosion, and others reported house-shaking." The shaking was pronounced enough to set off various alarms, witnesses said. The U.S. Geological Survey confirmed the area was hit by a 2.4 magnitude earthquake at 11:41 a.m. A quake of magnitude 2.5 to 3 is the smallest generally felt by people. An employee at a supermarket on Lafayette Road said the noise sounded like a bomb, followed by rumbling and shaking. Several people in Portsmouth District Court were startled when the courthouse shuddered, following a noise that sounded like a large door being slammed. A ceiling was cracked in one home.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BANGLADESH - A false tsunami alert two months ago led thousands of Bangladeshis to ignore warnings as Cyclone Sidr approached, costing many lives, villagers and officials said on Tuesday. "This time we did not take the number 10 danger signal seriously because so often the government hoists these signals. We rush to the cyclone centres but find that there is no catastrophe." Officials said they had struggled to persuade villagers - used to the Bay of Bengal's many lesser cyclones and storms - of the danger they faced. "On Thursday, we used loudspeakers from the mosque to plead with them to rush to the cyclone centres, but hardly anyone responded." A massive earthquake off the coast of Sumatra prompted the Indonesian authorities to issue a tsunami alert on September 13. Immediately, the Indian Ocean countries of Malaysia, Thailand, India and Sri Lanka hoisted alerts. The warning was later withdrawn after Indonesian authorities said there was no longer any danger. In Bangladesh, however, the country's cyclone alert network swung into action and quickly evacuated more than a million people who spent the night in shelters or on high ground. "The police, the government officials and the Red Crescent volunteers forced us to go to safe places although the river looked calm and quiet. They told us that a giant wave was heading towards Bangladesh and would devour the coastal villages. I did not go to the shelter last Thursday when the cyclone came. By the time the wind began to blow away our houses, it was too late." Red Crescent officials said September's false alarm led many to stay at home despite repeated warnings. "On September 13, we evacuated some people from the most vulnerable villages. People also heard media stories about a tsunami and spontaneously headed to the shelters on their own." When Thursday's warning went out, far fewer people responded, "although the danger was real and we had more than a day to warn people".

FREAK CURRENTS - weather conditions in the Pacific "against all models and forecasts that exist of this region". A Dutch adventurer attempting to row solo from South America to Australia has postponed his trip because of strong winds and FREAK currents in the Pacific Ocean. He set off in a custom-made vessel from Peru in March, planning to row across the widest part of the Pacific Ocean - a distance of more than 16,000 kilometres - without assistance. A fierce storm in August pushed him and his elaborate rowing vessel onto a coral reef on the island of Atafu, in the Tokelau islands, 4,000km short of his destination. He spent a month living on the island, overcoming his injuries sustained in the wreckage and awaiting supplies from his support crew to rebuild his boat. While the unscheduled stopover put an end to his attempt to make the crossing unaided, he set off for Australia again in October, hoping to arrive in Brisbane by Christmas. Despite the risk of cyclones, the Dutchman believed the currents and winds in the Pacific would steer him towards Australia's east coast. However, over the last fortnight the winds and currents have forced him south and even back towards South America, losing an average daily distance of 15km despite hours of rowing. The weather had been driving the adventurer mad. "This weather condition is against all models and forecasts that exist of this region." Dutch forecasters believe the UNUSUAL conditions are a result of the La Nina phenomenon - cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures. He has decided to now head for Fiji, where he will dock his vessel, before returning next year to complete the journey to Brisbane.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone BONGWE was 314 nmi S of Diego Garcia.
Tropical storm HAGIBIS was 401 nmi SW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm MITAG was 618 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.

BANGLADESH has called for more aid for tens of thousands of Cyclone Sidr survivors, amid concerns that some remote areas have not yet been reached. The country's army says it has yet to deliver aid to 30% of coastal villages hit five days ago by the storm. There is anger among many villagers on the stricken south coast that they have still not received vital supplies like food, water, shelter and medicine. The storm has affected 1m families and killed at least 3,100 people. The death toll is expected to rise. Some people have barely eaten since the storm struck. The scenes of devastation get worse and worse the further one travels towards the coast of the Bay of Bengal. Crowds stand along the shoreline in front of their flattened villages, waving red flags made from their clothes. Coastal Bangladesh is a maze of waterways, creeks, islands and sandbanks and the only way to reach the area is by boat. Officials say that in many areas 95% of rice has been destroyed, while shrimp farms and other crops were simply washed away.

PHILIPPINES - At least 11 people were left dead after Tropical Storm Lando [Hagibis] made landfall with winds of more than 40 mph. That storm has gained in strength and is continuing with 46 mph sustained winds toward Vietnam, which has been ravaged by storms and flooding in recent weeks. Meanwhile, a second tropical storm, Mitag, packing 52 mph sustained winds, is approaching the Philippines. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
LEBANON - A hailstorm has caused hundreds of cluster bombs to explode in south Lebanon. The cluster bombs were dropped by Israel during its war with Hezbollah guerrillas last year. The hailstones, as big as walnuts, fell in a number of valleys in south Lebanon. When cluster bombs burst, they spread bomblets over the ground and vegetation. Air- or ground-launched, the bombs often fail to explode on impact. Cluster bombs have killed 30 people since the war. Dozens more have been wounded.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When I'm working on a problem, I never think about beauty. I think only how to solve the problem. But when I have finished, if the solution is not beautiful, I know it is wrong.
R. Buckminster Fuller

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/19/07 -
5.7 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
6.3 FIJI REGION

INDONESIA - International scientists are concerned about the growing threat of an earthquake or a tsunami in the Indonesian city of Padang, which has 800,000 inhabitants. This port on the west coast of Sumatra, about 400 kilometres (250 miles) from Singapore and twice that from Jakarta, is located between two lines of high seismic activity: the Great Sumatran fault, on the mainland to the east, and the Sumatra trench, a subduction zone under the ocean, to the west. It is the subduction zone that is of greatest concern: friction undersea between the descending Indo-Australian plate and the Eurasian tectonic plate, which move together at a rate of five to six centimetres (two to three inches) per year, is eventually likely to cause death and destruction in Padang, the scientists warn. A series of earthquakes in recent years - including one of magnitude 8.2 that struck the town of Bengkulu in September, and one off Aceh that triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 - show that all the different segments have released their energy, except a small piece of 100 to 200 kilometres long just in front of Padang. "We now know that the Mentawai segment (facing Padang) has accumulated a lot of strained energy. It will be the next one to rupture." The quake's magnitude could reach 8.5 to 8.9. The number of casualties "will depend on how many people can escape" but, according to a worst-case scenario, a tsunami wave would be 5.5 metres high and go two kilometres deep into Padang, devastating "half of the city". Padang has only six tsunami sirens on its coastline. "Padang is a very difficult place because of its density. How can you evacuate so many people? I don't think it is possible to ask people to run away in the traffic jams."

INDONESIA preparing after psychic 'predicts quake'. Local officials in quake-prone Sumatra province said Monday they were taking precautionary measures after a Brazilian psychic warned a powerful earthquake would strike next month. The Indonesian embassy in Brasilia had passed on a letter from a "professor" and psychic predicting a quake would rock the island on December 23. "During a recent meeting with all senior officials in Bengkulu, we determined a number of evacuation shelters for residents, especially those who live in the coastal areas." There will be several evacuation drills around the province prior to December 23. "Though we call it a rumour, we take this information seriously. We don't want people to blame us if it really happens." The letter from Jucelino Nobrega da Luz predicted an 8.5-magnitude quake on Sumatra, but did not give an exact location. Da Luz had sent a letter in 1998 predicting the tsunami that devastated Indonesia in 2004. He also issued a warning in 2006 forecasting September's 8.4-magnitude quake in Bengkulu, which left 23 people dead. A seismologist from the Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency said that no technology in the world could predict an earthquake. "We have told people repeatedly that we cannot predict a quake. If there's information about the date on which a quake will occur, it is surely untrue."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm [typhoon?] 23W was 197 nmi WSW of Cebu City, Philippines.
Cyclone BONGWE was 323 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

PHILIPPPINES - At least 10 persons were killed and others were reported missing in Northern Mindanao and Caraga areas as strong winds and rains from typhoon 'Lando' [23W] lashed the southern provinces Monday. A number of passengers were also stranded in different ports and houses were flooded. There were also reports of some drainage canals and rivers overflowing and landslides occurring in some areas in the region. The local Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) located in Lumbia announced that the low pressure zone has now turned into a typhoon. "It is now called Typhoon Lando." There were a number of reports of missing persons including some children. The flooding was described as the "second worst" flooding that has ever hit Iligan City. "We have already put up five evacuation centers all over the city." Misamis Oriental towns close to Iligan City - municipalities of Lugait and Manticao - also suffered from this latest weather disturbance. The Lugait Public Market was flooded with water suspending all market activities and even damaging some of the market vendors' goods. In Manticao, a number of houses were also reported to be flooded with water. One house was reported to have been carried away by strong currents. Those residing near the coastal areas along the province were advised to immediately seek higher ground. Hundreds of passengers at the Lumbia Domestic Airport were stranded.
Tropical storm Lando has crossed the inland waters of Central Visayas and is now over the Sulu sea. Lando is expected to cross the Sulu sea on its way out into the South China Sea today. By Wednesday morning, it is forecast to be 150 km northwest of Puerto Princesa, Palawan while it is expected to reach 550 km west northwest of Puerto Princesa, Palawan by Thursday morning. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes were alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, residents in coastal areas were also advised to be alert for big waves generated by this tropical cyclone. The weather bureau is monitoring a low pressure area that could possibly develop into a storm. If this develops into a storm it will be named “Mina,” the 13th tropical storm to hit the country from January of this year.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - The provincial government in Oro in Papua New Guinea says about 10,000 traditional houses have been destroyed by days of torrential rain brought by Cyclone Guba. The confirmed death toll of people swept away by the floodwaters is 71 but the final figure may exceed one hundred. The flood waters in much of the province are waist deep while the rain is still falling. Tens of thousands of people are trying to shelter on higher ground and there is a struggle to get them the most basic of supplies. They have one helicopter available to deliver supplies, but just one pilot, so the aircraft is sitting idle for long periods each day.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
GREECE, BULGARIA - Severe flooding in southeastern Europe has left villages and farms under water and several municipalities in a declared state of emergency. At least two people have died in Greece. Heavy rain in southern Bulgaria left many villages without electricity or fresh water. The country's worst-hit area was the district of Stara Zagora, where rescue teams had to evacuate people from submerged houses. Dozens of homes remained underwater Monday while many area roads remained impassible. Work was halted in three coal mines in the nearby town of Radnevo as miners pumped water out of the flooded mines. In northeastern Greece, the Rodopi prefecture remained in a state of emergency after hundreds of homes and farms were flooded by rising waters over the weekend. Officials feared more flooding from overflowing dams in Bulgaria, whose country's Civil Defense Agency was monitoring dam water levels closely. Raging torrents also washed out roads and bridges and cut electricity to some villages. Mudslides kept cleanup crews busy in parts of the Peloponnese, in southern Greece, which were hit by massive forest fires over the summer, while rising waters in the Alphios River threatened area villages. Scores of livestock were also killed. Some harbors in southeastern Aegean islands also suffered limited damage from high winds.

IRELAND - It rained almost as much in some areas of Ireland Sunday as it did during the entire month of October. Despite an exceptionally dry and relatively sunny period lasting for most of September and October, heavy rains at the weekend measured 13mm at Dublin Airport Sunday. The same weather station recorded just 15.7mm of rain during the whole of last month. Winter has arrived with a vengeance with cold, blustery winds and pockets of heavy rain expected across the country for much of the week.

MALAWI - Three days of heavy rains have triggered flash flooding and displaced more than 2000 people in southern Malawi. About 20 villages have been destroyed following persistent rains and hailstorms in the area, about 50 kilometres west of the country's commercial capital Blantyre. "We are yet to establish whether the floods have caused any deaths and how much crop has been destroyed."

SPACE -
You can "Fly Your Name in Space". It's free and quick - the only information they ask for is your name. Names will be placed on a high capacity CD and engineered aboard the Space Express payload to be launched on Wednesday, December 5, 2007 at 7:30 PM EST. This is Kentucky's first mission to space. Code Name: Space Express - will be a sub-orbital launch from White Sands launch facility in New Mexico carrying a KySat student designed and built payload.

Monday, November 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The best and safest thing is to keep a balance in your life, acknowledge the great powers around us and in us. If you can do that, and live that way, you are really a wise man.
Euripides

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/18/07 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.6 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.8 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.0 FIJI REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TURKEY - Giant waves resembling a tsunami swallow a father and daughter - The weekend of a family at a village in Rumelifeneri, at the junction of Bosporus and the Black Sea, turned into a tragedy when giant waves swallowed a father and daughter. While the family was walking along the seashore, a giant wave pulled a girl and her uncle into the sea. The mother watched in horror and the father jumped into the sea to save them. The uncle's leg was broken immediately after he was pulled into the sea. The coast guards rescued the uncle and reached the dead body of the little girl; but they could not find the father.

AUSTRALIA - A fisherman almost drowned, two boats were sunk and a dozen more beached when a storm hit Mornington yesterday. The fisherman was caught under his upturned boat and barely managed to escape. The storm howled across Port Phillip Bay about 8am, straight into the largely unprotected Mornington Marina. "It was a beautiful morning, but it turned bad in minutes. We got back to the marina and had actually tied the boat up to the jetty but the wind and waves snapped a rope and started driving the boat towards another jetty. All I could do was put it in reverse but then a FREAK WAVE came over the stern and it went down, upside down, with me underneath. I'm a pretty good swimmer, but it took me a long time to get the 15m to the jetty with the wind howling and the waves breaking all over me." A low-pressure system, heat and humidity triggered showers and thunderstorms across Victoria.

THAILAND - 'Tsunami illness' has locals afraid - Almost three years since a tsunami ravaged six coastal provinces in the South, villagers at Ban Nam Khem are still plagued by illnesses they say are connected to the killer waves. Many villagers became concerned following the deaths of six tsunami survivors within a year of the tragedy. Another 80 survivors have suffered poor health, respiratory diseases and sudden weight loss. Ban Nam Khem - a fishing hamlet near abandoned tin mines - was one of the hardest hit areas in the Dec 2004 tsunami. More than 900 villagers died and many of those who survived swallowed huge amounts of seawater or had their wounds exposed to the water which, according to doctors, was highly-polluted with refuse, sand and mud. Survivors with access to medical care had mud and sand drained from their lungs. Many had to have their wounds reopened in order for clogged sand to be removed. But many villagers did not receive appropriate medical treatment as they were not aware of the long-term effects of their injuries. The villagers who did not receive treatment to drain mud and sand from their body now live in fear. "Some villagers have lost a huge amount of weight or died from infectious wounds." Many doctors, however, have dismissed the villagers' fears. "Chronic infections may be an unfounded fear. It seems most villagers are healed. But we will have to study the cases." The Thai Health Promotion Foundation has launched a project to monitor the long-term health effects of the tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 04S was 243 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone LEE was 979 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.
Tropical depression 23W was 161 nmi ESE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Cyclone GUBA was 308 nmi NNW of Cairns, Australia.

BANGLADESH - Up to 10,000 people are dead and millions homeless and hungry in cyclone-hit Bangladesh, officials said on Sunday, as the army and aid workers battled to reach the country's devastated coast. Three days after Cyclone Sidr tore into one of the world's poorest nations from the Bay of Bengal, rescue workers were still fighting their way through a landscape of flattened villages and traumatised crowds. Survivors on the isolated southern coast, where many areas were still out of reach for aid convoys, warned they would soon die unless help arrived. The humanitarian situation in coastal districts like Barguna, 200km south of the capital Dhaka, was catastrophic. "I have never seen such a catastrophe in my 20 years as a government administrator." The latest death toll released is 3113. "It may cross 5,000, but it will remain below 10,000."
BANGLADESH - One common tragic thread of fact running through the devastated coastal region is the fatal reluctance of the villagers to heed the warning signals of Cyclone Sidr. Village after village carry the same story, people were unwilling to leave their homes and cattle behind, because they thought the alarm was just another false one. "They told us we would die when the tsunami was supposed to hit a couple of years ago. We all rushed to the centre without thinking twice. But nothing happened and we returned to find our houses looted." This time people lost their entire families to the cyclone. "We thought it would be the same this time. But when our houses started to shake and the tidal wave came into our homes, we took all we could and made a dash for the shelter. It was too late." A large section of the dead were swept away by the awesome waves when they made the last desperate bid to make it to the shelter, while a large number of those who tried to leave before the arrival of the tidal wave were trapped under the trees uprooted by the ferocious wind of the cyclone. With most of the cyclone shelters located too far away from most villages, the journey through the cyclone was long, leaving the people with little chance of escaping its wrath. Most of the local people say the failure to evacuate the population of the region more thoroughly cannot be totally blamed on the administration, because they did take unprecedented measures to warn the villages on the mainland. But little notice was given to the fact that most chars, even the large ones with populations over 5,000 have not built any cyclone shelters at all.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
GREECE - Authorities declared an emergency in parts of northeastern Greece on Sunday after torrential rain caused flooding near Greece's border with Turkey and forced the evacuation of several villages. A man drowned outside Athens in an area also affected by the floods. In the border Evros region, several villages and farms near the Ardas River were evacuated, as emergency workers struggled to reinforce its banks. Flooding blocked roads in the Evros region and caused power outages. Hundreds of homes and businesses were flooded in the area. Floods also affected areas in the southern Peloponnese region that were affected by massive wildfires in August.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NEW ZEALAND - the most obvious signs of climate change in New Zealand are in the South Island. Glaciers are shrinking and the volume of ice in the Southern Alps has dropped almost 11% in the last 20 years, which is a clear sign temperatures in the area have been rising. Shrinkage is creating ice cliffs that are calving into the lakes, causing lakes at the foot of the glaciers to rapidly expand. It is still not clear whether the glaciers will disappear completely.

The worldwide thaw is accelerating. Thirty key international glaciers are melting about six times faster than in the 1980s. Most of the world's glaciers are receding. Climate change is melting the European Alps, the snows of Kilimanjaro in Africa and the massive snouts of snow and ice between Banff and Jasper in the Canadian Rockies. Of the 850 glaciers on the eastern slopes of the Rockies that Canadian glaciologists have been monitoring, 325 have disappeared entirely since the early 1970s. But new data show the melting of glaciers worldwide is accelerating faster than anyone previously thought. According to the Swiss-based World Glacier Monitoring Service, 30 key international glaciers lost on average 66 centimetres of thickness in 2005. Those glaciers are melting about 1.6 times faster this decade than they were in the 1990s, and about six times faster than in the 1980s. In the last 27 years, they have, on average, thinned by a total of about 10.5 metres. The retreat of Arctic ice raises some troubling issues. When the Exxon Valdez ran into a reef in Prince William Sound 18 years ago, for example, it wasn't simply a case of pilot error. The oil tanker was on an altered course to avoid a dangerous mess of icebergs that had calved off the Columbia Glacier. It resulted in the worst man-made environmental disaster in North American history when nearly 2,000 kilometres of Alaskan shoreline was contaminated. The melting of glaciers also has huge implications for future hydro-electric generation in the north, for commercial navigation on the Mackenzie River, for rare life forms that rely on glaciers, for more southerly weather patterns and for low-lying coastal communities everywhere. Over in Greenland, the glaciers are also shrinking. Coastal glaciers there are melting into the Atlantic Ocean twice as fast as previously believed. But snow and ice have also been building up in the interior. This has led climate change skeptics to claim that the ice sheet is not thawing. Thanks to radio echo data and 10 years of radar information, scientists have recently confirmed that the Greenland Ice Sheet is, in fact, slimming dramatically. The data show that the annual loss of mass has risen from 90 cubic kilometres in 1996 to 150 cubic kilometres in 2005.

“The disinterest factor in global warming is frightening. People have no idea of what we are facing as far as climate change is concerned. Even a minimum one metre rise in sea level is inevitable. The big question is when. It could happen in a matter of days or in three years. Huge parts of London are below sea level and the Thames Flood Barrier just wouldn’t be able to cope. The whole south-east of London would be under water...There’s no real shortage of clean renewable energy.” What people should do is to talk about the issue, look at the facts and bring it out in public. "It’s now or never and this is a wake-up call. To do nothing is no longer an option.” (photo)

Sunday, November 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Think of all the beauty still left around you and be happy.
Anne Frank

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/17/07 -
5.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.6 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
11/16/07 -
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.5 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
6.7 PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION

ISRAEL - devastating earthquakes hit Israel in the past two thousand years. The major ones were recorded in the Jordan Valley in the years 31 BCE, 363 CE, 749 CE and 1033 CE, "so roughly, we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake." Experts agree that Israel is long overdue for the next "Big One," and it can happen at any time. This poses a significant threat to population centers in the country, since many buildings in Israel were erected prior to the formulation of earthquake-resistant construction codes. There is also substantial doubt that the codes are being strictly enforced. The longer the period between earthquakes, the more tension builds, with catastrophic consequences upon its release. Since the last major earthquake was 1,000 years ago, "we are now in a deficit. There's been no release of tension, just buildup. It's like if you have a strip of rubber between your hands and keep pulling it - you know that it's going to snap eventually...We think that the focus of major earthquakes will be in and around the Dead Sea Fault. The seismic waves will spread around the epicenter and they will affect buildings far away from the focus...According to the historical records we have, almost every place in Israel was damaged several times in history [by earthquakes]." Israel is situated on two significant fault lines: the Dead Sea Fault and the Carmel Fault.

INDIA - Mild tremors are being felt in the Talala taluka region even 10 days after an earthquake rocked the Gir forest region. A series of aftershocks have been reported occurring daily, creating fear among the people. On Thursday, four more tremors jolted the region, which were experienced in a dozen villages including Talala town. Now, geologists from the Institute of Seismological Research have set up highly sensitive seismograph equipments at Talala town and at Galodar village. They have also initiated round-the-clock monitoring of seismic activities in the region. “During the last 10 days more then 150 aftershocks with a magnitude ranging between two and four have been reported from the region. The epicenter has also shifted from Khakhrvel village to Hiranvel, which incidentally has been the most affected by tremors." The constant aftershocks have created fear amongst the villagers, and district authorities have given clear instructions to people at Hiranvel village not to take shelter in damaged houses. “Most of the houses in the village are kachha houses and are likely to be grounded with one more big jolt or tremor." On November 6, two tremors with magnitudes of 5.1 and 4.5 rocked the entire Gir region, which has left most people from the three most affected villages homeless and stranded.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Oz coast at greater threat from climate change induced sea waves than thought - the changing direction and height of waves might affect coastal erosion. Storm surges have the possibility of eroding beaches on Australia’s east coast by as much as 100 metres over the next 100 years. This was in addition to land loss due to climate-change related sea level rises. Researchers found a regular change in the shape and orientation of beaches and the amount of coastal retreat that correlated with changes in the Southern Oscillation Index in the past.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - ANAK KARAKATAU VOLCANO - 600 volcanic quakes, tremors and eruptions at Mt Anak Karakatau were recorded on Thursday. The volcanic eruption, as well as deep and shallow shocks, tremors and hot gas blasts, increased tremendously compared to Wednesday. Until Thursday the frequency of tremors and eruptions had been fluctuating. The molten lava may reach the surrounding land if the eruptions and tremors do not subside.

CANADA - Scientists monitoring seismic activity at a dormant volcano in the British Columbia interior have detected more underground activity about 100 kilometres west of Quesnel. Volcanologists said Thursday that although the ground deep under the Nazko Cone is rumbling, there is no cause for immediate concern. More study is needed to determine if it's actual volcanic action or shifts in earth plates. "We are concerned that it could escalate and we need more information," so seismologists are deploying more seismometers and at least one more telemeter over the weekend. If it's volcanic activity, it's unlikely the Nazko Cone would explode like Mount St. Helens in Washington State, but it could pump out some lava. In October, a swarm of small earthquakes rattled the area around the volcano, which last erupted 7,200 years ago.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 04S was 246 nmi E of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone LEE was 889 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone GUBA was 275 nmi NNE of Cairns, Australia.

BANGLADESH - More than 2,000 people are now known to have died after powerful cyclone Sidr ripped through southern and central Bangladesh. The toll was expected to rise. Rescuers are trying to reach hundreds of thousands of survivors but debris and floods are hampering their efforts. Cyclone Sidr destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes, brought down power lines and wiped out vital crops. In many areas, 95% of rice which was awaiting harvest has been destroyed, and shrimp farms and other crops simply washed away. A huge relief operation is under way but the true extent of the destruction is only now emerging. "We are expecting that thousands of dead bodies may be found within a few days. We have not been able to collect information about casualties in many remote and impassable places due to the disruption to communications." This comes only a few months after floods devastated the northern part of the country. The storm triggered 5m (16ft) tidal surges in many of the affected districts. Rivers flowing into the Bay of Bengal were said to be swollen and rising. At least 150 fishing boats in the Bay of Bengal have failed to return to shore. Hundreds of fishermen are feared missing. Authorities have been struggling to get food, medicine, tents and blankets to the affected areas. Cyclone Sidr is THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE STORM TO HIT THE COUNTRY IN MORE THAN A DECADE.
Bangladesh said Saturday it feared thousands of corpses were littering its southern coast. The army and relief workers were battling to reach the worst-hit districts, where most villages have been flattened. Every one of Jhalokati’s 554 villages has been badly hit. Bangladesh’s vast Sunderbans mangrove forest, home to the endangered Royal Bengal tiger, bore the brunt of the deadly cyclone that smashed into the country, likely killing wildlife. “The winds have twisted the mangrove by flattening thousands of trees." The strong tidal surge could have killed wildlife. “I am concerned that thousands of deers and some tigers would have been washed into the rivers by the surge and might have died.”
INDIA - The cyclone that hit Bangladesh on Thursday evening caused devastation in certain coastal areas of West Bengal too. One person was killed in North 24 Parganas district. Nearly 15,000 people were affected by the storm in the State. There were reports of houses being damaged and standing crops across 7,500 hectares destroyed in the coastal areas. Embankments in some areas too were damaged.

Category two Cyclone Guba could re-intensify. The cyclone is still hovering over the Coral Sea but could reintensify in the next day or so. Guba had been rated as a category three, but had weakened. "It's got the potential to develop into a stronger system." At 11am (AEST), Guba was about 380km east north-east of Lockhart River on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, and moving slowly south-west. The cyclone was expected to continue to move slowly towards the coast over the next two days but at this stage, does not pose a threat. No cyclone watch or warning was current but a pressure ridge has developed along the coast and was directing strong south-easterly winds between Cape Grenville and Cooktown. The winds were likely to spread southwards to Bowen during tomorrow, with seas rising to three metres outside the Barrier Reef and to two metres inside the reef and in open waters.
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Dozens are feared dead in widespread flooding in Papua New Guinea's Oro Province after a week of heavy rains, associated with tropical cyclone Guba as it moved slowly across the Coral Sea. The death toll has been put at 17 by disaster officials, but at least 19 people were also reported missing. The toll could rise as police and government officials make contact with remote and cut-off areas to determine casualties and damage. The total death toll could be around 100 when all the casualty figures come in. Many thousands of villagers were forced from their homes by rising waters and around 450 houses were reported washed away. Key bridges along with roads and food gardens were washed away as the rains swamped Oro Province. Displaced villagers were running out of food and trying to get to care centres being set up by authorities. The water supply to the provincial capital Popondetta had to be shut down and the province's main airport and wharf were also closed along with several flooded schools. Last week's rains also caused flooding in adjacent Milne Bay Province, washing away houses and forcing villagers to move to higher ground.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UGANDA - The Ugandan capital Kampala was hit by torrential rains Friday, killing at least four people and leaving parts of the city under several feet of water. Heavy rains pounded Kampala and its outskirts all night and into the morning on Friday. Water swirled through homes, upturned vehicles and left thousands of people homeless or stranded on rooftops. Three children died when their flooded house collapsed in Kampala's Zana suburb. In July, Uganda was one of the hardest hit countries with the worst flooding to sweep Africa in three decades. (photo)

VIETNAM - The death toll from Vietnam's most recent floods rose to 48 after authorities in the central region recovered 13 more bodies on Friday, as the country braced for more heavy rains. Rescuers found nine bodies in the hardest-hit province of Quang Nam, bringing the death toll there to 23 since the rains began last Saturday. At least 99 people have died this month from flood-related incidents and a total of 240 since early October. More than 375,000 houses were submerged in the central region following last weekend's floods.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRIA - Drivers snowed in on Austrian motorways on Friday - Thousands of drivers in eastern Austria were forced to spend the night on the motorway as authorities closed down roads because of heavy snowfalls in parts of the country. On two major motorways leading to the capital Vienna from the west and south drivers were stuck for up to twelve hours, as up to 50 centimetres of new snow on the road made access for road services impossible. Authorities could give no indication on when the roads would be reopened. In the western Austrian province Tyrol, avalanche experts warned the situation was critical. Avalanche risks were rising due to a temperature drop and heavy winds. Individual skiers could easily trigger avalanches when skiing off the marked slopes, as the amount of snow was UNSEASONABLY HIGH and still needed time to settle.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

Experts warn of 'abrupt' warming - A UN panel has agreed on a landmark report on climate change, and says the world must act hastily to prevent the worst predicted effects coming to pass. It declared the fact of global warming "unequivocal", and said it may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts. Such impacts could include the fast melting of glaciers and extinction of almost a third of all plant and animal species on the planet. "Climate change is here, it's impacting our lives and our economies, and we need to do something about it." Australian scientists and fishermen spoke of the changes they were seeing on the Great Barrier Reef. And a Sami reindeer herder from Norway said that his communities are seeing weather patterns UNPRECEDENTED in their oral history. "Winter is one-and-a-half months later than it used to be. We observed birds and insects that do not have a name in Sami." This is the strongest report yet by the IPCC - but it says that there is still time to act.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

ANGOLA - UN health experts say they remain mystified by an unidentified disease in Angola that has killed four people. About 200 other victims are in hospital suffering from symptoms which include fever and extreme drowsiness. "More and more people have fallen ill but we have not been able to identify the cause of their sickness. It might be exposure to a toxic substance, something in the environment. But the possibility of an infectious disease is not yet excluded." The outbreak in Luanda's northern Cacuaco suburb was first reported in October.

Friday, November 16, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The ability to see beauty is the beginning of our moral sensibility.
What we believe is beautiful we will not wantonly destroy.
Reverend Sean Parker Dennison

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.7 quake in the PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION. The 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck southern Ecuador, shattering building windows in the city of Guayaquil while leaving no immediate victims. The quake could be felt in at least six provinces in the Andes mountain range, the Amazon jungle and the coast in the Peru border region. The earthquake shook the Andean nation one day after a powerful 7.7-magnitude temblor struck northern Chile, killing two people.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/15/07 -
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.7 TONGA REGION
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.6 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - High tidal waves reaching up to a height of three metres were reported in the coastal areas of north Chennai on Thursday, triggering panic among the fishing community, while the weather office said the phenomenon was due to a "severe cyclonic storm" formed over the Bay of Bengal. As many as 10 huts at Appar Nagar, a fishing hamlet at Tiruvottiyur, were washed away by surging waves, while sea water entered about 200 houses, forcing residents to flee for safety. Nearly 14 fishing villages in Ennore, Tiruvottiyur, Kasimedu and Ernavur areas have been affected by the tidal waves. Fishermen stayed away from venturing into sea in view of the adverse weather condition. Fishermen said they HAD NOT SEEN SUCH FEROCIOUS WAVES IN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS. "Not even when tsunami struck in 2004." The State Fisheries Minister and other officials rushed to the spot and studied the situation. Weather Office sources said alerts had been received from floating stations of the National Institute of Ocean Technology about high tidal waves due to the cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay and heading towards the north.

UNITED KINGDOM - High tides and stormy weather may have washed away hundreds of pups from one of the country’s major seal colonies off the North-East coast. Waves battered the Farne Islands, two miles off the Northumberland coastline last week, and the devastation to the local seal population can only be assessed now as the sea conditions slowly improve. Unusually, grey seals pup in the autumn, and the colony on the Farnes waits longer than other groups around the UK, making the youngsters particularly susceptible to heavy storms. Last week’s high tides, coupled with strong northerly winds, meant tides that usually rise to four metres were up to 5.4 metres. Some islands which normally remain above sea level were totally submerged, sweeping all young seal life from them. It is estimated that 60%-65% of pups had died. “Early signs are pretty grave. There is no doubt the colony has been severely affected by the great surge of waves that washed over the islands a few days ago...Grey seals have a very long life span so if there have been extra deaths this year, the seals could easily be replaced over the next couple of years.”

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - TURRIALBA VOLCANO - Park Rangers have been on guard at the Turrialba Volcano National Park since April when the volcano, which had been dormant since its last eruption in 1886, began to emit high levels of sulfuric gas. Due to the increase in gas emissions, rangers are limiting tourists who choose to visit the main volcano viewing point to 20 minutes of exposure to avoid negative effects from the gases. Since August, staff from the Costa Rican Volcanic and Seismological Observatory have noted minor landslides and sulfur flow, new gas discharge locations, and a large amount of vegetation dying in areas around the volcano’s main craters. Many of the 281 area residents have already reported headaches and respiratory problems as a result of the excessive gases. Some have chosen to send their children to stay with family that live further from the active volcano. Much of the livestock in the region has gotten sick as well. Most of the people that live around the volcano are in the town of Turrialba, and have reported seeing smoke billowing out of the volcano or the potent smell of sulfur, which comes and goes. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GUBA was 356 nmi N of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone LEE was 980 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone SIDR was 159 nmi N of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

Sidr - Packing winds of over 100 miles an hour, the furious cyclone that swept across the low-lying watery edges of southern Bangladesh late Thursday downed trees, sent mobile telephone towers crashing and swept away mud and thatch homes. By midday Friday local time, the death toll of Cyclone Sidr stood at roughly 240. 650,000 people had moved out of their homes. Preliminary reports from the fragile delta regions of the Bay of Bengal indicated that rivers had swelled so high that water punched through mud embankments and washed away paddy and vegetable fields, ruining the year's earnings for peasants who live off of those lands. In one district, called Shatkhira, roughly 5,000 mud homes collapsed back into the ground. Local relief workers reported that an entire island in Barisal district was submerged under at least six feet of water and houses were blown away by winds. Even the capital, Dhaka, though not directly in the path of the storm, felt its punch. Electricity towers were down, darkening the entire country for several hours overnight, and much of Dhaka remained without power for most of the day Friday, which also pinched the water supply. Bangladesh stands to suffer even more from extreme weather events like this as a result of human-induced climate change, scientists say.
INDIA - The cyclone, packed with wind speeds up to 280km per hour, on Thursday crossed half of Orissa’s vulnerable areas without causing any damage and veered off the coast of West Bengal, bringing a sigh of relief to the two states where thousands were evacuated. Meanwhile, huge waves and high tide with surging seawaters along Chennai’s coastline, due to a severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal, on Thursday led to a panic, reminding many of the tsunami of 2004. The tidal waves reached up to a height of three metres, as coastal communities in Kanyakumari, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore and north Chennai scrambled for cover.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - At least 6 people are dead and around 2000 villagers have been forced from their homes following four days of heavy rain and flooding in Papua New Guinea.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Flooding sparked by the swelling of rivers Duey and Quisibaní left an Army soldier missing, hundreds of victims, widespread damage to agriculture and at least three bridges destroyed in Altagracia province (east), less than three weeks after Tropical Storm Noel ravaged many parts of the country.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
INDIA - Bangalore recorded a minimum temperature of 8.4 degree Celsius on Thursday which is said to be the LOWEST EVER IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER DURING THE LAST 20 YEARS. Usually, November does not record a minimum temperature of less than 14 degrees. Winter seems to have set in quite early this year. There is a nip in the air and the City has been experiencing chilly weather for the last couple of days with minimum temperatures varying between 14 to 17 degree Celsius. During such cyclonic movements as Sidr, temperatures can fall below normal.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CALIFORNIA - Another potent Santa Ana is likely by the middle of next week, and National Weather Service forecasters believe it could pack winds at least as powerful as the gusts that fanned last months' wildfires. “Confidence is growing that another strong wind event will happen. The winds might even be stronger, if you can believe that.” Next week, the Santa Ana that is taking shape should have better “upper-air support,” which would enhance the winds. That means the winds in the upper atmosphere should be strong and blowing in the same direction as surface winds. The winds last month didn't have similar upper-air support. The winds are expected to hit Riverside and San Bernardino counties Tuesday and peak in San Diego County the next day. “It will be a cold, dry and very windy Santa Ana. By Wednesday morning, it looks like it will be howling for sure.” Humidity levels are expected to be very low next week, just as they were when the wildfires began Oct. 21. The only saving grace will be that the RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES the county saw Wednesday in Ramona and at the Wild Animal Park will slacken off. Temperatures should be 10 to 20 degrees lower than they were during last month's firestorms. The Wild Animal Park near Escondido hit 92 degrees, breaking the Nov. 14 record of 87 set in 2005. The Ramona Airport recorded a high of 90, breaking the mark of 85 set in 1999.

Negotiators working on a landmark global warming report don't need to go far to see the effects of climate change: The evidence is all around the Mediterranean resort where they are meeting. Sea water threatens to inundate rice paddies in use since Spain was an Arab kingdom in the eighth century. Seashore hotels must dredge sand from the seabed to fill-in eroding beaches. Stinging jellyfish are proliferating in the warmer water, plaguing swimmers. Bird migrations have altered. Winters have become so mild that storks and other birds stay year-round rather than migrate to Africa. But they are laying fewer eggs. The most noticeable change is the weather. "We are getting heavy rainfall, more intense, but far less rain overall." Last month, the village of El Verger was battered by the worst flooding seen in 95 years. What can be seen happening "goes beyond the incremental changes you would expect in a natural system." Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.3 degrees in the last 30 years. But it has gone up nearly twice as much in Spain, by 2.5 degrees in the same period.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A mutated version of a common cold virus has caused 10 deaths in the last 18 months, US health officials said Thursday. Adenoviruses usually cause respiratory infections that aren't considered lethal. But a new variant has caused at least 140 illnesses in New York, Oregon, Washington and Texas. CDC officials don't consider the mutation to be a cause for alarm for most people, and they're not recommending any new precautions for the public. "It's an uncommon infection." The Ad14 form of adenovirus was first identified in 1955. It's been detected rarely, but seems to be growing more common.

Thursday, November 15, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
People often say that 'beauty is in the eye of the beholder,' and I say that the most liberating thing about beauty is realizing that you are the beholder. This empowers us to find beauty in places where others have not dared to look, including inside ourselves.
Salma Hayek

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/13/07 -
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.7 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.7 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
7.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

CHILE - A strong 5.7 earthquake struck northern Chile on Wednesday, just hours after a magnitude 7.7 tremor shook the region. Chilean officials reported two deaths and more than 150 injuries.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Dozens of the world's small island nations appealed Wednesday for rapid international action against climate change, fearing it is only a matter of time before they are submerged. Delegates from 26 low-lying nations, including Tuvalu, Micronesia, Kiribati and Palau, ended two-days of talks by closing ranks ahead of a global climate change meeting in Bali in December. A United Nations climate panel recently said world sea levels are likely to rise up to 59 centimetres (23 inches) by 2100. "We are seeing UNUSUAL rises in sea water levels, it's affecting our crops, homes, it's threatening our livelihoods," said Fiji's Environment Minister. "Time is running out." The Maldivian President also warned that a one-metre rise in sea levels would herald the "death of a nation." Scientific opinion is divided on how soon that could happen, with estimates ranging from 30 to 100 years. The tidal surges experienced on 80 of the Maldives' 200 inhabited islands earlier this year were "a grim reminder of the devastating tsunami of 2004 and a clear warning of future disasters."

NETHERLANDS - The Dutch enjoy a hard-earned reputation for building river dikes and sea barriers. Over centuries, they have transformed a flood-prone river delta into a wealthy nation roughly twice the size of New Jersey. If scientific projections for global warming are right, however, that success will be sorely tested. Globally, sea levels may rise up to a foot during the early part of this century, and up to nearly three feet by century's end. This would bring higher tidal surges from the more-intense coastal storms that scientists also project, along with the risk of more frequent and more severe river floods from intense rainfall inland. Nowhere are adaptation planning efforts to address rising sea levels and flooding more advanced than in the Netherlands. Powerful pumps long ago replaced the signature windmills. But in the 1990s, "for the first time, rainfall was so heavy and intense that our pumping systems could not cope. On such a large scale," the inability of pumps to keep pace with rainfall was "SOMETHING WE HAD NOT EXPERIENCED BEFORE." By buying out a few farmers, breaching the dikes they built to protect their land, and digging additional water channels, the Dutch government aims to reduce peak flood flows at Dordrecht and other cities downstream. No longer will tightly constricted river and canal channels hold high water captive. Big floods will overspread the Biesbosch, reducing the threat of water spilling over the top of levees that guard densely populated cities to the west. The Biesbosch may also be critical to the future of farming on the productive southwest coast. There, most of the area's fresh water sources are close to the coast – and vulnerable to salt-water contamination from a rising North Sea. This could make farming difficult, if not impossible.
Nearly 40 percent of the world's 6.6 billion people within 60 miles of a seacoast. If current trends continue through 2050, flooding in the Nile, Mekong, and Ganges-Brahmaputra river deltas could each displace more than 1 million people. Up to a million more may be forced to head for higher ground in each of another nine deltas, including the Mississippi River delta. Netherlands officials may ask their developers to use a technique that dates back centuries: building houses, even whole villages, on mounds. That low-tech approach is appearing in other parts of the world, too. Oxfam International is working with villages in Bangladesh to build individual homes and even small villages on flood-resistant mounds. The government plans to spend $3.2 billion to make changes to its rivers. Meanwhile, along the coast, the big worry is not about any average increase in sea level, which scientists project to rise here between 35 and 85 cm (14 to 33 inches) by 2100. Instead, the biggest concern is the change in storm-surge patterns that will ride atop that rise. Some researchers say that in the US Northeast, midcentury coastal winter storms could lead to flood levels every three or four years – floods of a severity that used to occur only once every 100 years. Netherlands planners aim for a 10,000-year storm for the country's most vulnerable areas. And even that may be inadequate. "When you do an economic assessment of the damage, and what you can afford to [spend to] avoid that damage, a better safety level would be a recurrence of 1 in 100,000 years." One storm like that could cost the country up to a year's worth of gross domestic product.

OREGON - Mysterious brown waves are freaking out visitors to the Oregon coast – especially the Seaside area. But there’s nothing inexplicable about it. “Seaside is experiencing a large diatom bloom, which is painting the surf brown and littering the beach with foam." Diatoms are the tiny phytoplanktons that actually form the sea foam that you see on the beaches. With the calm conditions the coastal beaches are seeing now, after the stormy winds and high, broiling surf of Monday that churned up lots of foam, there’s a large amount of stuff all over the beaches. But especially foam and its creators – diatoms – have been roughed up and agitated into making a big appearance. The result is waves with a lot of brown in them, brown goo lying around the beaches in the form of foam, and large tracts of dark, oily-looking spots on the sand. The phenomenon is happening all over the coast, but especially around Seaside. (photos)

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Anak Krakatau volcano spewed smoke and flaming rocks hundreds of metres from its crater on Wednesday although it was not in danger of erupting. Its volcanic activity continued to fluctuate. Since Tuesday evening, a river of lava and red-hot rocks had been sliding down the slopes as far as 400 metres from Anak Krakatoa's crater. Despite scientists' estimations that the volcano was not especially dangerous at present, fishermen and visitors were warned to stay beyond a three-kilometre radius from the mountain because it would continue to rumble for some time. Meanwhile, at Mount Kelud "lava is constantly shooting out of the crater." The newly emerging lava dome is now up to 200 metres in diameter and stands 140 metres above the surface of the lava lake. Clouds of smoke billowed up to 2,500 metres into the air on Wednesday morning and ash covered a number of villages as far as 15 kilometres from the volcano's crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GUBA was 371 nmi N of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone LEE was 1038 nmi SSW of George Town, Malaysia.
Cyclone SIDR was 288 nmi S of Calcutta, India.

BANGLADESH - The coastal districts of Bangladesh have been put on storm alert as a severe cyclone heads in across the Bay of Bengal. Operations have been suspended at the main ports of Mongla and Chittagong, and people are being moved away from high-risk areas. With winds of 200km an hour, the cyclone - expected to make landfall around 0800 GMT - may also affect eastern India and the west coast of Burma. Thousands of families have been evacuated from their homes in over a dozen coastal districts of Bangladesh. Bangladesh meteorological department officials said they feared the cyclone may also trigger tidal surges up to 10ft (over three metres) in some areas. Southern Bangladesh is often hit by cyclones, but experts say the latest one is a category four storm, the largest so far in the season.
Sidr - "It if hits the coastal area with its present intensity it will be catastrophic."

Tropical Cyclone Guba has become the first cyclone off the North Queensland coast this season and the first to occur in November since 1977. Townsville Bureau of Meteorology said it was UNUSUAL for a cyclone to form so early in the season. "It is unusual although we do start our tropical cyclone season in November. We normally don't name our first cyclone until sometime in December." The tropical cyclone sat about 140km north-east of Lockhart River yesterday afternoon. It was unlikely to hit the coast but residents between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery were being warned to consider contingency plans if the cyclone threat increased. The storm was in ideal conditions to intensify. "The latest movement (about 4.30pm yesterday) is slowly westward toward the Queensland coast. We're not sure of its of movements after that. Conditions are good for its intensification. It's got a very large outflow, which means there's a lot of high cloud associated with it but the destructive area is quite small at the moment because its only a category 1." Guba is expected to develop into a category two by this morning and a category three by Friday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
LA NINA - Indications point to a much drier winter than would be expected from a typical La Nina. "The high pressure cells that typically develop over the eastern central Pacific Ocean during a La Nina phase appear to be setting up further to the north than in other such winters. This may shunt the northwesterly jet stream to the north, which would otherwise bring moisture-laden storms into the [western U.S.] region, translating into fewer storms throughout the winter." This winter outlook, if it holds up, could be devastating to regions already hard hit by drought, such as southern California and the desert Southwest. And Colorado, which is one of the few western states without current drought concerns, could lose some of the ground it has slowly regained after the severe drought of 2000-2002. "I am very concerned that Colorado, which is essentially drought-free on the national drought monitor, might see regions of drought develop by spring." This La Nina also is UNUSUAL because it came on quickly and strong so late in the year. La Nina most often develops in the spring, but this one took off in August. "It was ONE OF THE MOST DRAMATIC TRANSITIONS FROM NEAR NORMAL OR NEUTRAL IN THE PACIFIC to a moderately strong La Nina, based on records from the last 60 years."

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - a flood warning has been issued by the National Weather Service after ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALLS IN A DAY was recorded in Port Moresby. The deluge began on Monday afternoon and continued till yesterday afternoon, flooding parts of the city and damaging food crops and poultry in at least one suburb. Up until 10am yesterday, Port Moresby recorded 143.2mm of rainfall — the HIGHEST RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER IN 30 YEARS. “This is UNPRECEDENTED. That is a huge amount.” Although the onset of a rainy season varies, on average an onset was about the first week of December. But this year, conditions favoured an early onset, although an onset takes five days of continuous rain to be confirmed. PNG is experiencing the La Nina season, and the country could expect a lot of rain for the next three months.

AUSTRALIA - A huge landslide at one of Victoria's biggest power plants - Yallourn power station - has slashed electricity production. The landslide has left Yallourn running at less than a third of its capacity ahead of a week of forecast 30C days. The State Government will investigate the landslip, which opened a giant chasm and let the rain swollen Latrobe River pour into the Yallourn open cut mine. Heavy rainfall this month has been blamed for putting pressure on the mine's wall, causing it to collapse and cover two major conveyor belts with coal and earth. Work has started on diverting the river to stem the flow of water into the mine. The Environment Protection Authority is monitoring the river for possible contamination, and Southern Rural Water has advised farmers and domestic customers downstream of Thoms Bridge to stop using river water until further notice. Consultants were hired last week to review seepage into the brown-coal mine, but there was no indication the wall was about to collapse. "Due to the significant subsidence and resulting leakage, the river will now need to be diverted to restore downstream river flows." The National Electricity Market Management Company said the collapse would not jeopardise the security of Victoria's power supply. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIANS will begin to see the stark effects of climate change within the next few years, not the next decades, a leading Australian scientist has warned.
Drought may force 1000 of Australia's 7500 wine grape growers to leave the industry.
Australia's decade-long drought has forced brewers to slash the amount of water they use in making beer.

Climate change ups risk of war - Climate change will put half the world's countries at risk of conflict or serious political instability, a report says.

Weather trends - Annual precipitation has increased by about an inch over the past 30 years.
More of that precipitation is happening in extreme weather events.
In other words, there are more frequent 3-inch rains as opposed to 2-inch rains than there were 30 years ago. And, more rain in accumulating as result of one event.
Winter low temperatures aren’t as cold. That means there are about eight more frost-free days now than there were in the 1950s resulting in a longer growing season.
The summer heat isn’t as intense as it was 30 years ago, but humidity levels are rising.
Not all these findings are all “doom and gloom.” “In the short run, these may be favorable for agriculture.” Others will be something to watch, as increased precipitation events could increase flooding, and increased humidity and lengthy summers may raise plant pathogen or disease concerns. “The evidence is just so overwhelming, it is something we have to pay attention to.”

SPACE WEATHER -
Something strange is happening in the atmosphere above Africa and researchers have converged on Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to discuss the phenomenon. Scientists are converging on Ethiopia this week to discuss a new and strange form of space weather: ion plumes, which form during geomagnetic storms. Remarkably, the source of these plumes may be somewhere over Africa. "The plumes appear during geomagnetic storms and they can interfere with satellite transmissions, airline navigation and radio communications." Indeed, it is their effect on GPS signals that led to the discovery of plumes over North America just a few years ago. "Many believe the source of the plumes is near Earth's magnetic equator. Africa is a great place to check this possibility because the magnetic equator passes directly over the sub-Sahara." Just one problem: "There aren't enough sensors in Africa to study the phenomenon." Ion plumes inhabit a layer of Earth's