November & December 2007 Featured Disasters

Sunday, December 30, 2007 -

Have a safe and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
[No update on the 31st.]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Treat the other man's faith gently; it is all he has to believe with.
His mind was created for his own thoughts, not yours or mine.
Henry S. Haskins

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Quakes so far today -
5.0 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 TONGA
5.0 BANDA SEA

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/29/07 -
5.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
12/28/07 -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 TONGA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.5 VANUATU
5.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

JAPAN - Scientists question earthquake zone theory - The tectonic zone that has been linked to some major earthquakes may not be consistent with the distribution of such earthquakes over the past 100 years, according to a study by a Tokyo University research team. Major quakes of recent years, such as the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake and the Great Hanshin Earthquake, struck within the zone, widely believed to stretch from Niigata to Kobe, but research indicates that a completely different distribution should be considered. The team used data on the epicenters of 52 inland earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.8 or more that have struck since 1596. The seismic zone stretched from Niigata and ran past Kobe as far as southern Kyushu. They superimposed the position of this longer zone on the Niigata-Kobe belt and statistically calculated the degree to which they were consistent. They found that more than half of 20 quakes that occurred between 1896 and 2007 struck outside the Niigata-Kobe zone. But almost all of 20 quakes that struck between 1729 and 1914 were inside the Niigata-Kobe zone. The team concluded the subduction of seismic plates has caused the build up of "invisible" seismic strain, which causes major inland earthquakes, prompting a shift in the distribution of earthquakes from the commonly acknowledged Niigata-Kobe zone.

TSUNAMI / ROUGH & FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
HAWAII - Blustery winds and rough seas canceled Hawaii Superferry trips between Maui and Oahu from Wednesday through Saturday. The National Weather Service issued small-craft and high-surf advisories for all islands. A small-craft advisory was in effect until Friday morning with predicted seas greater than 10 feet high. The strong winds were coming from a high-pressure area to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. "This has been an UNUSUALLY long period of active trade winds in our area." The blustery winds were likely to remain well into next week. The winds have been particularly prevalent in exposed windward areas and in Maalaea Bay where an UNUSUAL gale warning was posted. Winds are expected to continue blowing between 30 to 39 mph, with some gusts of up to 50 mph. Those winds were expected to remain through Saturday, calming down somewhat Sunday and Monday.

AUSTRALIA - Madness as huge waves pound coast - people watching the treacherous surf from the beach were knocked off their feet by FREAK waves, a boat full of lifesavers was flipped over, and surfers were swept out to sea as the Coast was hammered by huge surf yesterday. All beaches on the Gold Coast were closed as winds of up to 90km/h whipped up dangerous waves that caught plenty off guard. Two people were stranded in waist-deep water after a freak wave pounded them against eroded dunes at The Spit about 2pm yesterday. They were forced to cling to poles under the sand-pumping jetty to avoid being swept out to sea. A huge crowd of people, including small children, also risked their lives trying to get a closer look at Mother Nature's fury by venturing to the end of rock wall at The Spit. Huge waves hit the wall as dozens fled to safer ground. Two surfers were swept north from Tallebudgera to Burleigh Heads after being caught in the strong sweep. A surf boat crew from the Greenmount surf club flipped their craft about 6am and had to be rescued by a jet-ski patrol. The weather bureau warned the treacherous conditions will not ease until Thursday. A severe weather warning remained for the southeast because of an intense low pressure system sitting 460km off Fraser Island. Only the bravest surfers dared to take on the swell, said to be the BIGGEST OF 2007. Waves of up to 13m were recorded off Coolangatta. The wave buoy off Narrowneck recorded 9m swells and shark nets were torn loose. Surf lifesavers along the Gold Coast still had to brave the conditions and warned several people, including two busloads of tourists, from entering the water near North Kirra. Showers and increasingly gusty winds keeping most people away from the water. The massive waves flooded the Vikings Surf Life Saving Club car park. Earlier, members from the club sandbagged the area. Lifesavers carried out two rescues at The Pass yesterday and later helped more than 200 people off The Pass lookout after churning water cut them off from dry land. About 20 children were taken off the lookout by air tubes for safety measures. While the low-pressure system off the Coast could not technically be classed as a tropical cyclone, it packed a similar punch. "I haven't seen anything quite of this magnitude this year. They've been good solid 10-foot (3m) waves today, (some) up to four metres. The problem is the swell's really big but not many people can surf it - only experienced tow riders. It's quite tragic really. Many people just have to sit and look at it. On days like today jet-skis really are the only option."

NEW YORK - Suffolk County - representatives to document the “cumulative effect damage” being felt by area beaches from a series of tropical storms, nor’easters and squalls. Officials are being asked to recognize the cumulative impact of storms dating back to November upon beaches that were already severely damaged by a nor’easter in April, and possibly add the recent damage on to the April totals. Since the April 15th storm, beaches have been hit by remnants of Tropical Storm Noel in early November, a nor’easter December 15-16, and a heavy rain, wind and surf event on the evening of December 23.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone MELANIE was 554 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

ATLANTIC - Another out-of-season storm possible - Low pressure over the open Atlantic about 950 miles south of the Azores has begun to acquire some tropical characteristics as of Saturday evening. Thunderstorms began to develop around this area of low pressure on Friday afternoon, and have become more widespread over the last 24 hours. If this trend continues, a subtropical or tropical storm could form from this feature in the next day or two. The low will remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days, trapped beneath an upper-level low in the area. After that, the storm will drift slowly westward. The low currently poses no threat to any land area.
Will it become the last named storm of 2007 or the first named storm of 2008 — or will it fizzle into nothing more than a meteorological curiosity? The disturbance in the distant Atlantic could be developing into a RARE, post-Christmas named storm. That depends on when — or if — it develops sustained winds of at least 39 mph. If that happens before 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, when the new year arrives, it will be called Pablo, the next name on the 2007 list. If it happens after that, it will be called Arthur, the first name on the 2008 list.

Cyclone Melanie - The weather bureau is warning communities in north Western Australia that Cyclone Melanie could develop into a category three cyclone in the next 24 hours. Severe weather warnings are in place for coastal areas as Melanie, currently classed as a category two cyclone, hovers around 400 kilometres off the coast between Exmouth and Whim Creek. While the storm may drift pass the coast, it is large enough for the weather bureau to keep a close watch. "There is still a significant chance of it getting close to the coast and putting some gales in coastal areas and maybe a bit of heavy rain as well." (satellite photo)
The cyclone warning was cancelled for category two tropical storm Melanie as it moved away from the West Australian Pilbara coast.

AUSTRALIA - An intense low pressure system is causing havoc along Queensland's southern coast, however Fraser Island, directly in the path of the storm, has been warned the worst is yet to come. The weather bureau today continued to issue a severe weather warning for residents south of Rockhampton, including the Capricorn and Bunker groups, Fraser Island and the Sunshine and Gold coasts. The low, located about 450km off Fraser Island's Sandy Cape, today whipped up damaging winds and dangerous surf, causing coastal inundation. Waves between four and eight-metres had been recorded on the Sunshine and Gold coasts, with the biggest wave, nine-metres, recorded in Brisbane. "It's expected to move to the north-west in the next few days and conditions should ease slightly, but we are still expecting high, dangerous surf and fairly damaging wind gusts." Beaches on both the Gold and Sunshine coasts have been closed because of the dangerous conditions. "I don't think people should necessarily be walking on the sand, let alone getting in the water." Brisbane City Council urged residents to stay away from large trees in the city's parklands amid concerns those weakened by the prolonged drought will be toppled by strong winds. Monsoonal rainfall has also fallen in the state's far north, with up to 220mm drenching the Daintree.
There are reports of people yesterday being swept into deep water while wading in the shallows. A low pressure system with a central pressure of 995 hPa is currently located about 460 kilometres east of Sandy Cape on Fraser Island. The low has remained very slow moving today but is expected to move slowly to the northwest overnight and during Monday. Very large waves are being generated by this system and will continue to affect coastal areas between Heron Island and the NSW border.
Forecasters are also watching the Gulf of Carpentaria for the possibility of a cyclone there next Tuesday, Cyclone Helen.
The Bureau of Meteorology is observing a monsoonal trough in northern Australia which brought with it heavy rain - 220mm in 24 hours at Cape Tribulation alone. "We're watching that monsoon, which is currently over the top end of the NT, because there's a moderate chance that by Tuesday it might develop into a tropical cyclone and swing into the Gulf of Carpentaria." The monsoon trough, which has a slow-moving low pressure system at 997hPa centred near Jabiru, may cause destructive winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and large waves. It is causing damaging wind gusts to the north as air rushes south to fill the void. Residents of north Arnhem Land were warned last night to expect wind gusts of up to 90km/h, large waves and abnormally high tides from Cape Don to Nhulunbuy.
AUSTRALIA - Five east coast lows occurred during June 2007, which was RARE but not unprecedented, with other notable years including 1974 and 1950. During June this year, the NSW Regional Office issued over 750 warnings including Severe Weather Warnings, Flood Warnings and Marine Wind Warnings. In terms of impacts on the NSW mainland, the first event (June 8-9) was the most serious. With a central pressure of 990 hPa, beach erosion at many Sydney beaches was caused by huge swells. Cremorne Wharf collapsed into Sydney Harbour due to large waves. The maximum wave height recorded at Sydney Waverider Buoy was 14.1m. This was the highest recorded since records began in 1992. Offshore, the third event (June 19-20) was the most intense, with a minimum central pressure of approximately 982 hPa. Fortunately the full impact of this low was not felt over land areas.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
WISCONSIN had some pretty wicked weather this past year, ranging from blizzards to record flooding, winter snow storms, severe thunderstorms, high winds, large hail and droughts. "This was a very interesting year for Wisconsin in the weather department and it seems like every year gets more UNUSUAL than the previous year and you wonder how the heck we can top the previous year. So, but looking back at 2007 all I can says is "Wow, what a year!" Record rains caused five deaths, numerous mud slides, road closures, and flooded homes and businesses. 22 inches in one month is a lot when you compare it to the average of 32-35 inches for the entire year. Total damage to property and crops from the rain was about $112.5 million.

TEXAS - A little over a year ago, ranchers had to search as far away as Kansas for hay to feed their cattle. Many ranchers were forced to sell off cattle or ship them out-of-state. But this year, the fortunes have turned, thanks to this year’s wet weather that brought rain to almost every corner of the state. It was a year of recovery for Texas agriculture as farmers saw RECORD YIELDS for corn, cotton, wheat, sorghum, soybeans and hay. “I don’t know if it’s ever happened before but it’s a PRETTY RARE occurrence. It’s pretty UNUSUAL to have the entire state wetter than normal at the same time.” Cattle raisers also replenished herds, often finding livestock from the drought-stricken southeastern U.S, and benefited from stable beef prices. But the banner year was tempered by the rain’s tapering off during the last four months of the year and an uncertain future. “We didn’t get the fall rains so the pond levels are really dropping.”

INDONESIA - Torrential downpours overnight Friday sparked fears of further landslides on Saturday in Indonesia's Java island, where rescuers were still struggling to recover bodies of recent landslide victims. Nearly 100 people were killed or missing after landslides buried houses under thick mud across the Central Java province this week, while thousands were forced to move out of homes submerged by floods triggered by days of heavy rain. "Heavy rain like this could trigger fresh landslides in the same spots. The first ones have scarred the hillsides, making them more prone to landslides."

SRI LANKA - Due to torrential rain resulting from the north-East monsoon, some districts of the eastern, northern and north-central parts of Sri Lanka have been experiencinga flood situation since December 20th. Floods have caused immense damage to affected areas, interrupting all economic and social activities. It is also reported that there are tremendous damages to infrastructure facilities in the areas. Around 56,000 families consisting of 210,533 members have been affected. Most of the affected people have settled in 86 temporary camps. The victims are suffering untold hardships, as their settlements were destroyed by landslide or washed out by flood water.

PHILIPPINES - Flash floods that occurred late Thursday night washed out nine houses and affected 280 families in three villages along the national highway. Spillover water from Kulasihan River in Lantapan, an upland town, flowed into barangays Aglayan, Bangcud and Cabangahan. "The flash floods were possibly caused by tornado." They are still investigating the late night calamity and have officially labeled it as "flash floods." Damage to crops and properties were estimated to have reached around P10 million in the three barangays.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ILLINOIS - December snow piling up - 13.7 inches so far - more than double 30-year average of 6.6 inches for December. Winter's third significant storm Friday blanketed much of the Chicago region, clogging traffic, canceling flights and leaving 2 to 6 inches of snow in its wake. The storm marked the 14th snowfall in December, making the month ONE OF CHICAGO'S SNOWIEST EVER. "Unfortunately, the encore is flurries and bitter cold next week...It's just that this [snow] has been earlier. Normally this is what it's like in January."

MICHIGAN - Five to 7 inches of snow was reported in the region following the storm that blanketed the Great Lakes region with several inches of snow. Milwaukee's total at Mitchell International was 6.3 inches, TOPPING THE RECORD for the date of 5.3 inches set in 1968.



EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

SOUTH KOREA - the weather service said Saturday it issued a yellow dust advisory, its FIRST EVER ISSUED IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER, for the central part of the country. The advisory was issued for Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi Province and other nearby areas as well as five islands near the western sea border with North Korea at 2 p.m. Most of the country will come under the influence of the hazardous dust from late at night. The last time a yellow dust storm hit South Korea in December was in 2001. No advisory was issued because the country did not start the system until the following year. South Korea faces the seasonal phenomenon every year from February through April, as sand and other dust from the Gobi Desert in Mongolia are carried over to the country by easterly winds.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, December 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Faithless is he that says farewell when the road darkens.
J. R. R. Tolkien

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/27/07 -
5.4 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 CENTRAL TURKEY
5.4 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - residents along the Queensland coast are bracing for a fierce and volatile weather system this weekend with the bureau warning of gale-force winds, dangerous surf and abnormally high tides. The Bureau of Meteorology has advised coastal communities from Bowen in north Queensland to the Gold Coast to prepare for the intense low-pressure system. Severe thunderstorms hit NSW yesterday afternoon, with heavy rains and flash flooding in the Hunter and Central Tablelands, Illawarra and western parts of Sydney. Three people were rescued yesterday after they abandoned their 10m yacht in heavy seas north of Fraser Island. Huge waves whipped up by the system will coincide with king tides and are likely to cause the biggest tides this year. The bureau is also closely watching a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria that has the potential to develop into a cyclone early next week. Meanwhile, South Australian fire fighters are on standby over the coming days with the bureau forecasting extreme heatwave conditions throughout the state.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical cyclone watch has been issued for western Australia's Pilbara coast. The Bureau of Meteorology estimated category one tropical cyclone Melanie was 610km north-west of Broome and moving at 8km/h towards the coast at 4pm (WDT). A cyclone watch has been issued for coastal areas between Exmouth and Broome. "Tropical cyclone Melanie is not expected to cause gales on the coast overnight tonight or during Saturday. However, gales may develop on the coast late Sunday."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

NEW YORK - Weather patterns took twists and turns in 2007, beginning with flowers blooming in January and including a freak June storm that killed four people in Colchester. Golfers were hitting area courses in January's 60-degree weather. A high of 64.4 degrees was recorded Jan. 2, which broke the 1890 mark of 58 degrees for the date. January averaged 4.8 degrees above normal. The normal mean temperature for January is 21.3 degrees. But by the end of January, temperatures plunged. A record-setting blizzard pushed through the area Feb. 14. More than 25 inches of snow fell in Emmons. That broke the Oneonta-area record for Valentine's Day of 20 inches, set in 1914. The average Binghamton snowfall in February is 15.9 inches, but the 2007 February total was 29.1 inches. Temperatures varied in the area but remained below average in February. The cold weather continued into March. Oneonta set a record for the lowest high temperature for the March 6, with the thermometer only reaching 5.1 degrees. The previous record was 8 degrees. Summer began tragically in the town of Colchester where four people died June 19 after an 8-foot-high wall of water rushed through two valleys. The storm that stalled along a ridge between Holiday Brook and Cat Hollow roads in the Delaware County town washed away four homes and destroyed roads and bridges. Up to 8 inches of rain fell in two hours, washing out roads and homes and slamming trees into bridges. The month of July turned out to be cooler and wetter than normal, continuing a trend that stretched through the first seven months of the year. The area's weather during September ranged from wet and warm to near normal. From June through September, the weather was fairly stable. One of the most remarkable things about September was the lack of a frost. As the year drew to an end, back-to-back snowstorms turned the area into a winter wonderland, but rain on Dec. 23 washed snow away, making for a mostly green Christmas.

MISSOURI - Extreme temperatures and sporadic rainfall, usually in large amounts, seemed to be the trend for 2007, but overall, the climate wasn’t too out of the ordinary for Southeast Missouri, "but as far as the times that things happened, that was UNUSUAL.” February was really cold, 6.1 degrees below normal, with the normal being 38.5 degrees. The warmest month relative to the normal temperature was March, and that was 56.4 degrees — or 8.7 degrees above the normal temperature of 47.7. April was normal except for three or four UNUSUALLY cold days with an April freeze. “That Easter freeze injured the wheat (and the local fruit crop), and a large percentage of corn had to replanted." August had six 100-degree days, and the hottest day of year was Aug. 16 at 102 degrees. “That’s PRETTY UNUSUAL.” The wettest day of the year was on Oct. 18 when 4.4 inches of rainfall was measured. The wettest month was October which had a total of 7.70 inches rain. “Normally the average is 2.91 inches for October, which is the lowest normal month of the year, and actually this year it was the highest for the year." Meanwhile, forecasters say the region will still be in a drought cycle in 2008.

IOWA - Could a year with record-breaking rainfall events in Iowa segue into a period of drought? It’s possible, based on the way weather conditions are shaping up from coast to coast. “A number of current trends are following what happened in 1987 leading into the drought of 1988, and that worries me a little bit.” Drought risk tends to follow a 19-cycle, and the risk of serious drought is doubled in the phase of the cycle which is now occurring. Many serious, widespread droughts start in the eastern United States and work their way west, although they don’t always reach western Iowa. In 2007, many areas of the southeastern United States were plagued with drought, just as the Carolinas were in 1987 before a major drought hit in 1988. While this drought did not decimate the crops of the western Corn Belt, it reduced yields by 30 percent across much of the central and eastern portions of the region. Currently, a residual moisture deficiency persists in the southeastern United States, including South Carolina - more than 90% of all major Corn Belt droughts are preceded by drought in South Carolina. Droughts can also spread from the western United States and Colorado and work their way to Iowa. “Both types of droughts can happen at once. Just think of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s.” All this comes at a time when Iowa has received the most heavy-rain days in the history of the state’s recorded weather. In 2007, there were eight days in which 4 inches or more of rain fell at multiple sites in the state, beating the previous record of six days in 1979. While it’s too early to determine why this is happening, it does highlight the volatile nature of current weather patterns. Due to the cyclical nature of the world’s climate, Iowa may also be heading into a period of colder winters. “The longest time between serious droughts is 23 years. If we don’t have a serious drought by 2011, we’ll break an 800-year-old record.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, December 27, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Happiness is having a large, loving, caring, close-knit family, in another city.
George Burns

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/26/07 -
5.3 CENTRAL TURKEY
5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.5 BANDA SEA
5.3 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 KYRGYZSTAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
12/25/07 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
5.0 FIJI REGION
12/24/07 -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA

IRAN - The ancient Iranian city of Bam was hit by a mild earthquake almost four years to the day after a catastrophic quake there killed tens of thousands. The suburbs of Bam in southeastern Iran were rocked by the 4.2 magnitude quake at around 8:00 pm (1630 GMT) on Tuesday evening. The quake that hit Bam in the early hours of December 26, 2003 was of 6.6 magnitude and killed 31,000 people, about a quarter of the city's population, and destroyed the city's ancient mud-built citadel.

TAIWAN - A magnitude 5.1 earthquake jolted Taichung City, central Taiwan, in the early hours of Tuesday, December 25. The earthquake was found to have been caused by a stress adjustment subsequent to the massive 7.3-magnitude earthquake that shook the central county of Nantou on Sept. 21, 1999, killing some 2,400 people. The Tuesday earthquake occurred at 2: 28 a.m. The epicenter was 22.9 km underground. The quake had an intensity of 5.1 in Changhua, and was followed by an aftershock with a magnitude of 3.7, which shook Nantou at 4:38 a.m. [Taiwan had two large quakes last year on December 26, 2006 - 7.1 & 7.0 (8 minutes apart) which killed several people and triggered a minor tsunami.]

AUSTRALIA - A large earthquake measuring at least six on the Richter scale appears to be overdue in Australia, after another relatively quiet year on the seismic front.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -
AUSTRALIA - A low pressure system off Queensland's central coast is forecast to intensify overnight, whipping up large seas and gale-force winds. The system is expected to be around 500 kilometres off the coast of Yeppoon by tomorrow. The combined winds and waves will cause ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES along the southern and central coasts. "The south-east coastal area will start to feel the effects, a gradual increase in the winds through the early part of the weekend, and at this stage I think the worst part of the coast should be up around the Sunshine Coast up toward the Fraser Island area. Nonetheless the Gold Coast area will still experience the strong winds." Fraser Island, the Cooloola coast and northern parts of the Sunshine Coast are likely to be the first affected by the large waves. Conditions will be dangerous and unstable over the weekend. "Over the next few days, the further south you come towards the New South Wales border, things are going to get increasingly worse sort of leading to the weekend and over the weekend."

INDONESIA - The government has renewed calls for ships and boats not to set sail in the next few days following warnings of extreme weather and high waves from the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. The no-sail warnings were valid throughout this week and could be renewed. The ministry issued its first warnings two weeks ago. In bad-weather warnings issued on Tuesday, they said three- to five-meter-high waves could hit several parts of Indonesia because of seasonal monsoon winds expected to last until the end of this year. "Ships and boats should not set sail in the next two days because they might be swept away by high tides," a meteorology and geophysics expert said on Wednesday. He said the Java Sea would be hit by waves as high as three and five meters, while the Makassar Strait and Bali Sea might see waves with heights between 0.5 and 3.5 meters. Waters in the southern part of Sumatra and in the south of Nusa Tenggara could be hit by up to four-meter-high waves, while the waters to the south of East Java might see 0.5 to 2.5-meter waves. The agency said the predicted waves would likely be caused by the West Monsoon wind, a seasonal wind that occurs when atmospheric pressure is high across the Asian continent and low across Australia. Mariners should also stay alert for severely low tides, which might hamper ships from harboring and loading. Waters in Surabaya's Tanjung Perak harbor receded to minus-170 centimeters on Wednesday and were predicted to rise only by 10 centimeters today. On Dec. 23, a tugboat pulling a coal barge was overturned near Bali as it sailed from South Kalimantan to Cilacap, Central Java. In September, the BMG also warned vessels against sailing in the Indian Ocean, including waters around the Mentawai islands and the coastal areas of West Sumatra, due to extreme weather. Passenger ferries plying the Mentawai-Padang route continue to operate despite the warning, but no accidents have been reported. One of the most noted sea tragedies was the sinking of the Senopati Nusantara ferry in the Java Sea on Dec. 30, 2006, after it was reportedly hit by dangerous waves. This accident claimed the lives of more than 300 passengers.
Rescue workers combed waters off western Indonesia after a small boat sank in stormy seas, leaving at least two passengers dead and seven others missing. "The captain could not control the boat because of the high waves, and it eventually capsized in the Malacca Strait." The motorized, wooden ship was traveling between two coastal villages in Riau province on Monday when the accident occurred - almost all the passengers on board were women and children. Strong winds and 3-meter (10-foot) waves forced rescuers to briefly suspend search operations Tuesday.

BRITAIN - Twelve rescued as high winds and huge waves hit annual pier swim - Brighton Swimming Club abandoned the traditional swim after 8ft waves and 30mph winds battered the pier. Hundreds of people ignored warnings of THE MOST DANG EROUS WEATHER TO HIT THE EVENT FOR DECADES. “We did 12 rescues altogether. One man in his sixties was bashed down by a wave completely and went right under, but me and a friend managed to scoop him up. The wave then squashed us both and we lost him . . . he popped up again beside me. He was very upset – he’d had a close shave.” The seas also tore bathing costumes, with one man forced to scurry out naked.

CALIFORNIA - The National Weather Service placed the Central Coast under a high surf advisory until 3 pm on the 25th. Breakers from 10 to 12 feet were expected to continue throughout most of the afternoon. Another round of high swell was likely to have moved into the area late Wednesday.

INDIA - Three years after the tsunami destroyed their homes, over one thousand families still live in temporary shelters in the Nagapattinam district of Tamil Nadu.
More than 40,000 people in India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands made homeless by the December 26, 2004 Asian tsunami are still living in temporary shelters. Close to 10,000 families lost their homes. Irrespective of the family size, each family was given a one-room shelter measuring about 150 to 200 sq feet. These shelters are made up of tin sheets. They get monthly rations, but no cash handouts. The tin shelters are too hot during summer and leak during winter. Water and sanitary conditions are very bad. Farmers also suffered heavy losses, with some losing their land forever. "Over 8,000 hectares of land was affected by the tsunami, out of which 4,200 hectares have been permanently submerged... There is no land to give. We are encouraging farmers to learn new skills."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

AUSTRALIA - Wild weather is expected on Queensland's coast over the next week amid warnings of a potential cyclone developing in the Coral Sea. A coastal wind warning has already been issued between Cardwell in north Queensland and Hervey Bay in the state's southeast. However, the Bureau of Meteorology is also warning that a low developing in the coral sea could intensify into a cyclone as early as Saturday. The cyclone, if it develops, is not currently expected to reach the coast but would deliver gale force winds to central Queensland and possibly the southeast corner.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDONESIA - At least 10 people were killed in Indonesia's East Java when a bridge was swept away by swelling floodwaters today. The people were dragged away by strong currents when the bridge collapsed suddenly after floods caused by torrential rains hit the district. The accident occurred following floods and landslides in Central Java that have left scores missing.
Landslides caused by torrential rains overnight on Christmas left 75 people dead or missing in Indonesia's Central Java province. The landslides were THE WORST TO HIT THE REGION IN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY as thousands of people moved to rescue shelters after their homes were buried or washed away. The latest flood came on the third anniversary of the tsunami that left 220,000 Indonesians dead or missing. Floods rose up across Java island on Wednesday following seasonal rains and high tides. Rescue workers and police were struggling to reach the affected areas as roads were cut off by floods following the rains. 24 bodies had been recovered and another 37 people were missing following landslides in at least nine villages in Karanganyar district near the banks of the famous Bengawan Solo river. Another 14 people are missing in Wonogiri district 30km south of Karanganyar but lack of heavy equipment was slowing down rescue efforts. "The landslides took us by surprise. This is the first time in the last 25 years anything of this scale occurred here in Central Java." Thousands of villagers in areas who lost their homes to floods or landslides have moved into temporary shelters in buildings and tents set up by local emergency response teams. Metro TV showed residents wading through neck-high water. (photo)
Scores of people drowned in mud and surging rivers after days of intense rain caused floods and landslides across the Indonesian islands of Java and Bali exactly three years after the Indian Ocean tsunami hit the archipelago on December 26, 2004. Thousands of houses were inundated, from Java and Sumatra to Sulawesi island, farther east. Residents struggled to salvage valued possessions from the rising waters, some using tyres to float televisions and refrigerators to higher ground. Flooding has become a very common problem for many of the Indonesian communities, which tend to be concentrated along lowlying coasts and valleys beneath steep mountains. Especially jolting, from the point of view of Indonesian business, was an incident last month when the road to Jakarta international airport was cut off by a surging high tide. (photos)

BOLIVIA - Heavy floods have killed at least eight people and left thousands homeless over the last two weeks. Since Dec. 15, five people have died in the central province of Cochabamba, two more in the southern Andean province of Potosi and another in Viacha, a town near La Paz. Over 3,600 families have been affected by the floods in the Chapare region of Cochabamba.

AUSTRALIA - The town of Coonamble was cut off by rising flood waters with the Castlereagh river at its HIGHEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS.

SRI LANKA - Flash flooding in east and central Sri Lanka has forced 175,000 people from their homes, with many seeking refuge in makeshift welfare centers in schools and temples. Heavy rains on Sunday and Monday caused a reservoir to burst its banks in the eastern district of Batticaloa, where more than 40,000 families comprising around 150,000 people were displaced. The central district of Polonnaruwa was second-worst hit, with around 6,500 people displaced, with the balance affected in the northern districts of Jaffna and Trincomalee and the central district of Matale. The inundation comes a week after 20,000 people were flooded out of their homes mainly in the eastern district of Ampara, when a depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified monsoon rains.

MOZAMBIQUE - Torrential rains in central Mozambique and in neighbouring countries were threatening further serious flooding on the Zambezi river on the 24th. Despite government warnings, after the major floods of January and February, that people should not try to live on the Zambezi flood plain, much less on islands in the river, a significant number of farmers ignored this advice. They found the temptation of living alongside their fields in the most fertile parts of the valley too strong to resist. There are at least 500 people on Resende island, and a further 100 on Nhane island. Much larger inflows from Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected later in the rainy season, in January and February. Localized flooding occurred in the northern city of Nampula on Saturday, when 128 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - On Sunday, it was snowing finally in the south of Primorye. During 24 hours from 4 to 8 mm fell in Vladivostok and its suburbs - that is almost a ten-day norm. According to the web site of the meteorology centre, the precipitation was caused by a not deep cyclone that is moving from the Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan. It touched the south coast of Primorye. This morning the cyclone has reached the east coast of Japan and common for this December, sunny weather is back to Primorye. It will be quite cold in Primorye during first part of the week, especially at night time; it will be influenced by another anticyclone that will come from the north of Khabarovsk Territory. But in the second part of the week the anticyclone's influence will come down and another cyclone from the west will come through Primorye. It will cause warming up and it may be snowing in the north of the Primorye. At the end of working week there is a possibility of a deep cyclone coming to Primorye's coast. It will cause snowfalls, blizzards, ice-slicks and storm winds on the coast.

INDIA - The city of Bangalore woke up shivering on the 26th, with temperature plummeting to 11.8 degrees Celsius — the THIRD COLDEST DECEMBER DAY IN 124 YEARS. The lowest December temperature ever was 8.9 degrees Celsius recorded in December 1883. The second lowest was in December 2000 when the temperature dipped to 11.5 degrees Celsius. "During winter, parts of south-interior Karnataka, including Bangalore, experience sudden fall in temperature particularly between December 15 and January 15." The city is susceptible to cold temperature due to the presence of clouds with moisture just a km from the ground level. "These clouds have cold breeze, particularly in the winter, during which the cold breeze and surface wind mix with each other and reduce the temperature."

NEW ZEALAND - Weather 'goes crazy' - Wellington's unpredictable weather stayed true to form, Boxing Day beginning with sunshine, only to change later to hail storms, rain and low temperatures. Parts of Upper Hutt and the Kapiti Coast were pelted with hail late in the afternoon, giving residents the chance to take part in activities not normally associated with a New Zealand Christmas. Upper Hutt residents came home to gardens covered in ice. The hail was caused by a southerly change which sometimes produced hail storms. "We've had a very early summer this year and got used to the rather warm weather." The unpredictable weather was likely to continue, with rain possible tonight and showers likely tomorrow.

AUSTRALIA - Christmas 2007 will go down in the record books as ONE OF THE MOST UNSEASONAL IN YEARS in weather terms. A south easterly change that moved in late on Christmas Eve sent temperatures plunging and brought a return to drizzling rain. And it stayed that way right through Christmas Day with the conditions disappointing those planning outdoor celebrations on the big occasion. It was the same right across the Blue Mountains with day-long fog and intermittent rain greeting visitors. In Sydney it was also unseasonally cool and overcast — far from the image of a sun bleached Santa. Yesterday, although the sun was shining, the temperatures were still well below normal for this time of the year.

CANADA - Forecasters are bracing for potentially the WORST AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN FIVE YEARS in a season that has already turned deadly. Throughout backcountry areas in the Rockies, the avalanche risk is rated as considerable at treeline and alpine elevations. Two successive avalanches on Monday killed two members of a party of four snowmobilers near 108 Mile House, in the British Columbia interior. A combination of rapid shifts in weather patterns and above-average precipitation in late fall has created weak layers of snow that easily could give way beneath heavier slabs laying on top. Significant advances in avalanche awareness have taken place in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002-03 season, including a new terrain ranking system and the creation of the Canadian Avalanche Centre to distribute up-to-date bulletins online.

UTAH - avalanche experts are calling Sunday's fatal slide at The Canyons Resort "A RARITY" THAT HAS NO PARALLEL IN RECENT UTAH MEMORY. One man was killed and a boy hospitalized. This was an inbounds avalanche. The area had been open for more than a day and control work had been done in the last 24 hours of the accident. The two were apparently skiing together. The ski patrol arrived on the scene within four minutes of the call, and they found the man four minutes later. They uncovered the boy about 25 minutes after.

COLORADO - the Denver metro area was digging out from ITS WHITEST CHRISTMAS ON RECORD. A surprise all-day storm Tuesday delivered Denver's snowiest Christmas ever, with 8 inches of new snow by late afternoon. The snowfall easily eclipsed the record - the all-time record for snowfall on Christmas in Denver previously was 1894's 6.2 inches. The foothills and southern part of the metro area were hit hardest by the storm that tracked eastward across the state. Golden reported 13.6 inches and Littleton 10.5 inches.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Perth sweltered through its HOTTEST DECEMBER DAY ON RECORD, with the mercury hitting 44.2 degrees Celsius (111.5F). It BROKE THE RECORD FOR THREE-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES in Perth, with Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day being the HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. The hot weather led to the outbreak of bushfires in the city's south, threatening houses in the suburb of Casuarina and burning 15,000 acres of bushland. Some residents were evacuated while others decided to stay and try to protect their homes. Firefighters are now readying themselves for a week of continued hot weather.

SCOTLAND - Chaotic summer weather patterns have heightened concerns that climate change could have a serious impact on Scotland's wildlife, flora and fauna, it emerged yesterday. The unpredictable weather has started to take its toll on the delicate balance of the country's natural landscape. A number of species have appeared in Scotland for the first time, while the survival of some montane plants and birds are at greater risk given a general rise in temperature. Nuthatches, which have in the past been restricted to England, bred this summer in Melrose and another property in East Lothian. "We cannot be certain that this is due to climate change but warning bells are ringing very loudly." A reduction in snow cover has been noted at the most northerly NTS properties, indicating significant temperature change, and as footpaths become exposed for longer each year it puts them at risk of accelerated erosion. Similar worries have been expressed by the National Trust which serves England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Many species emerged or bred earlier because of warm weather in the first few months of the year, while the heavy rain and low temperatures in the summer caused problems for insects, birds and bats. A male goldeneye duck was displaying in Northern Ireland in January, months earlier than usual, while bats were on the wing in late March, long before the usual time. Ladybirds, bumblebees, peacock butterflies and frogspawn all had an early start in February, and the good weather in April saw adonis blue and marsh fritillary butterflies on the wing "radically" early. And in October, basking sharks were spotted for the first time off the Farne Islands - the plankton they feed on is not normally found in the North Sea at that time of year.

GEORGIA - 2007 brought RECORD COLD, RECORD HEAT and near record drought to Georgia-Carolina. Augusta experienced one of the coldest Masters Tournaments in recent memory, with highs the first full week in April struggling to reach the 50s and record lows in the 20s. The late freeze damaged many crops and plants all across the area. 2007 will be remembered most, however, for the record heat and the extremely dry conditions, brought on by a stubborn area of high pressure over the southeastern states and a developing La Nina weather pattern. The month of March is normally one of the wettest months of the year, but this March brought only half as much rain to Augusta as it normally does. That came after a drier than normal January and February. April turned out to be a little drier than normal, but not as dry as March was. May was very dry, with less than an inch of rain falling during the month. June brought a brief respite from the developing drought. Nearly five inches of rain fell. July started off wet and cool, but quickly turned dry in the middle of the month. Four record low temperatures were set in July, including a low of 61 on July 4. In August there were 10 record highs and 15 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees. The month averaged 6.1 degrees warmer than normal and Augusta only reported 41 percent of normal rainfall. On August 10, Augusta reached 108 degrees, tying the all-time record high first set on August 21, 1983. Much of the southeast suffered through the effects of the drought and extremely hot temperatures. North Georgia was especially hit hard by the drought that left Lake Lanier at a near all-time record low level. Unusually dry weather continued through the fall months with November only bringing 15 percent of its normal rainfall. When December arrived, very little changed, at least during the first half of the month. A strong summer-like ridge of high pressure developed once again over the southeast, causing another round of record-breaking high temperatures. For five days beginning Dec. 9, highs reached the lower 80s, setting new records. The weather pattern shifted mid-month, displacing the high pressure ridge, and allowing for more frequent rain-making storm systems and more moderate temperatures. In fact, on Dec. 15 and 16, Augusta received nearly three inches of rain, setting a new daily rainfall record for the 15th. Before mid-December's rain, Augusta was on target to have the driest year on record. With more rain likely before the end of the year, 2007 will probably end up the fifth or sixth driest year on record. Most forecasts for the first part of 2008 indicate the drought will continue, and temperatures will remain warmer than normal - exactly the forecast Augusta doesn't need.

KOREA - Warm spell brings RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES to Korea - Korea has been seeing unseasonably warm days in the midst of winter, even after dongji or the winter solstice. The Korea Meteorological Administration predicted the spring-like weather will continue until Saturday when a cold snap is expected to grip the nation. The mercury soared above 10 degrees Celsius in most regions nationwide on Wednesday. The high point was recorded in Milyang, South Gyeongsang Province where the temperature was 17.5 degrees. Seoul posted a RECORD HIGH WINTER TEMPERATURE of 13.8 degrees on Wednesday, higher by 11.3 degrees than the normal average of 2.5 degrees. It was the HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR LATE DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1904. The daily average temperature in Seoul has hovered above zero for nearly two weeks since Dec. 15. Normally the temperature in Seoul at this time of year is below zero. Warms winds from the south have prevented the expansion of cold air from the north into the Korean Peninsula.

Meteorologists have chronicled strange weather years for more than a decade, but NOTHING LIKE 2007. Get used to it, scientists say. As man-made climate change continues, the world will experience more extreme weather, bursts of heat, torrential rain and prolonged drought. "We're having an increasing trend of odd years. Pretty soon, odd years are going to become the norm." The decade of 1998-2007 has been THE WARMEST DECADE ON RECORD. With temperatures 0.85 degrees Celsius above normal, January of this year was the first time since record-keeping began in 1880 that the globe's average temperature has been so far above the norm for any month of the year. As the year progressed, American weather stations broke or tied 263 all-time high temperature records. England had the warmest April in 348 years of record-keeping, shattering the record set in 1865 by more than 0.6 C. "For the first time in recorded history, the disappearance of ice across parts of the Arctic opened the Canadian Northwest Passage for about five weeks starting 11 August." The Arctic dramatically warmed in 2007, shattering records for the amount of melting ice. Sea ice melted not just to record levels, but far beyond the previous melt record. There were "devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world." And there were other oddball weather events. A tornado struck New York City in August. In the Middle East, an equally rare cyclone spun up in June, hitting Oman and Iran. Major U.S. lakes shrank; Atlanta had to worry about its drinking water supply. South Africa got its first significant snowfall in 25 years. And on Reunion Island, 640 kilometres east of Africa, nearly 394 centimetres of rain fell in three days — a world record for the most rain in 72 hours.

The United Nations sent a RECORD NUMBER OF DISASTER ASSESSMENT TEAMS TO EMERGENCIES IN THE AMERICAS in 2007, offering a potential glimpse at the future of climate change. Nine of the 14 teams dispatched this year by the U.N. went to Central and South America, the highest number in history, including the FIRST EVER TO MEXICO. Previously, the highest number of missions to the Americas was eight, after Hurricanes Mitch and Georges in 1998. This year, U.N. teams were sent to Mexico, Uruguay and Bolivia twice to deal with severe floods. Teams were also dispatched to the Dominican Republic following Tropical Storm Noel, Honduras after Hurricane Felix, Belize and Jamaica after Hurricane Dean, and Peru following an earthquake in August. The five other U.N. teams went to Madagascar, Pakistan, and Ghana in response to floods, the Solomon Islands following an earthquake and tsunami in April, and Laos to help the country's disaster preparedness efforts. 10 out of the 14 missions, or 70 percent of the total, were in response to hurricanes and floods.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Monday, December 24, 2007 -

Have a HAPPY HOLIDAY!
[There will be no updates on the 25th and 26th.
Although I'll be checking in just in case we get another big Christmas quake this year.]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A man travels the world over in search of what he needs
and returns home to find it.
George Moore

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/23/07 -
5.4 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KENYA
5.3 TANZANIA

KENYA - A series of earth tremors rocked the country Sunday afternoon causing panic among Kenyans. The Kenya Meteorological Department could not immediately tell the magnitude due to lack of a seismograph. All the tremors lasted about five seconds and were felt in different parts of the country between 4pm and 4:45pm. In Nairobi, the tremors were felt in different places, including Nation Centre, between 4 and 4.45pm with varying degrees of intensity. The tremor lasted longer in Taita-Taveta and Mombasa. In Wundanyi, nurses at Wesu hospital left the patients unattended and ran out for their lives.

NICARAGUA - On Sunday, a few hours before another anniversary of the 6.5 earthquake that devastated the city of Managua 35 years ago in 1972, scientists warned that the tragedy that killed more than 10,00 Nicaraguans could happen again. The scientists said there is a true threat to the citizens of the capital. In a timeframe of 76 years, Managua was destroyed twice because of earthquakes. The 14 faults known in Managua are active, and any of them could cause an earthquake. However, the Nejapa mega fault is the most likely to unleash a telluric tremor of great magnitude. The Nejapa Fault, which is active, is the longest and is close to three other dangerous fractures of the earth. The activity of this crack, which is 15 miles long, created other cracks and it is near the Mateare Fault, the largest of Managua, and the Tiscapa Fault, which caused the 1972 earthquake. The situation is being carefully observed, with great concern, after the Nicaraguan Institute for Territorial Studies registered 1,400 telluric movements in different spots of the country up to November. Compared to other years, there is greater calmness, but that peace worries the experts, because a build-up of energy between the tectonic plates could be occurring.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - Increased seismic activity at the Andean volcano of Tungurahua has prompted the evacuation of 1,200 Ecuadorean villagers, who venture home only to tend crops during the day. Ten villages have been evacuated to sleep in shelters "to avoid people from being near the volcano." The Tungurahua volcano was registering near-constant seismic activity after seven hours of tremors rattled windows Saturday morning, showing an intense glow in its crater and spewing a fine coat of ash. "We can't rule out at this moment that the volcano may evolve in coming weeks from the current situation to a much more explosive level."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW YORK - Syracuse received RECORD RAINFALL Sunday, breaking a mark set in 1990. The National Weather Service measured 0.77 inches of at Hancock Airport from midnight through 10 p.m. Sunday. That broke the previous record for Dec. 23 of 0.59 inches. The rain, coupled with a rapidly melting snowpack, flooded basements, stalled cars and delayed flights. It even caused the foundation of a Syracuse home to crumble. High temperatures also contributed to the melt off. The high of 52 degrees was significantly warmer than the 34-degree average high temperature for Dec. 23.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Snow storms in the central US have left at least 11 people dead and tens of thousands without electricity. The severe weather has caused hundreds of accidents, and reached as far south as Texas - where there was a 50-vehicle motorway pile-up. The storm has also felled trees and power lines and caused the cancellation of hundreds of flights. More heavy snow has been forecast as the storms move into the Great Lakes region bordering Canada. Multiple vehicle pile-ups closed major highways in the central states over the weekend. In Minnesota alone, there were more than 300 road accidents and three deaths. Three other people died in accidents in Wyoming, three in Wisconsin and one each in Texas and Kansas.

BANGLADESH - Severe cold wave disrupts normal life in Sirajganj - An UNPRECEDENTED COLD WAVE over the last few days has almost halted normal life in this district town. The severe cold wave coming from the Himalayas has made the lives of the dwellers, specially the homeless people of this small town, miserable. At least 12 people have been attacked with various cold related diseases, the intensity of cold worsens after mid-day and turns extremely unbearable in the evening. Every day, fog covers the town until 8 to 9 AM and vehicles ply in the streets with their headlights on. Although the sun appears for a while around 10 AM, it soon disappears. Last Monday morning drizzles made things even worse. Destitutes are trying to combat this bitter wave through heat generated from burning heaps of straw and old rubber tyres. On the other hand, second hand warm clothes sellers are making best use of this situation and earning handsomely by raising the prices two and even three times. Diseases like fever, cough, cold and dysentery have also increased alarmingly. Severeness of cold in this small district town situated near the Jamuna river is usually more bitter than other areas of the country, which usually deteriorates in December and January. Observers feel that this cold will worsen further during next few weeks. Cultivation of winter crops, particularly the potato is facing damage from this unnatural cold. Authoritative sources believe unless the government and the well-to-do section of the country come forward with necessary arrangements for distribution of sufficient warm clothes for the homeless people in this area, the possibility of loss of life from this bitter and severe cold may not be ignored.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Despite recent falls, Brisbane is on track for ONE OF ITS DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD. So far this year, Brisbane has received only 633mm of rain, compared to the normal annual rainfall of 1,146mm. It is the lowest annual figure since 2000, but nowhere near the lowest ever - 411mm in 1902 - during the infamous 26-year federation drought. "This is only gone on for seven years, so we still could have suppressed rainfall for a few years yet." August was the only month with above average rainfall, and while showers were becoming more frequent, they were usually light. It would take a tropical cyclone to cross the coast in a random event, or "exceptional" falls for a month, before meteorologists could confidently declare the drought broken. Weather forecasters have predicted Brisbane's coolest Christmas Day since 1999. A top of 27 degrees is expected on Tuesday, with a few light showers. The average Christmas Day temperature is 29 degrees. (27 degrees Celsius = 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
The region in 2007 received only half the average yearly rainfall recorded in the past decade. Brisbane's last year of above average rainfall was 1999, when the city received 1728mm. The past seven years have been the driest since the infamous Federation drought, which began in 1895. Dam storage levels in the southeast are still perilously low. The combined dam levels of Wivenhoe, North Pine and Somerset are at 20.01 per cent. The region's current drought was described as THE WORST ON RECORD FOR THE CATCHMENTS on the Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams.

FLORIDA - Even amid a record-breaking drought, water managers' floodgates from Fort Pierce to Boca Raton dumped roughly 250 billion gallons of coastal runoff out to sea during this year's hurricane season. Water managers say they had no choice. The region's decades-old drainage network left them no place else to put so much runoff without flooding the densely developed coast, they say. And they had no practical way to move the water to drought-shriveled Lake Okeechobee. "It breaks my heart. I get frustrated like everybody else. You know you're going to need that water." The squandered quarter-trillion gallons would be enough to fill Dolphin Stadium more than 500 times, supply Palm Beach County's water customers for more than a decade or submerge the city of Stuart about 100 feet deep. It includes rain that sloshed off roofs, streets and parking lots from June 1 to Nov. 30, into drains and canals that aim for the Intracoastal Waterway and the Atlantic. The lost runoff is also equivalent to about 2 feet of water in the shrunken lake, the region's main backup reservoir. The lake hit an all-time low in July, and water managers say it COULD PLUNGE TO LEVELS NEVER BEFORE RECORDED in the next few months. To meet the shortfall, the district is taking the UNPRECEDENTED step of limiting lawn and landscape watering to one day a week throughout almost all of its 16 counties. The limits take effect Jan. 15. "The only answer is to be able to store more water." But efforts to do that have been slow, despite a $10.9 billion Everglades restoration plan that includes proposals to capture wasted runoff. Since Jan. 1, Palm Beach International Airport has received more than 63 inches of rain - about 70 percent more than notoriously drizzly Seattle. Some rain has arrived in blinding downpours, including one day in October when almost 7 inches fell at a coastal gauge just south of West Palm Beach. When rain falls so heavily, the district's priorities shift to flood control. Its canals flow downhill, and most lack pumps that could send water inland. Most also have no direct link to the lake. The district is keeping water in its canals higher than usual. But that increases the risk of floods in a freak downpour.

"Watching my gnarled old Mediterranean [olive] tree season by season, I see the bad news fast getting worse. Our future food supply is at risk, olives and most everything else besides. Some insist that scientific ingenuity will provide. Agribusiness touts miracle seeds and new techniques. Others find comfort in broad numbers, yearly precipitation figures and mean temperatures that have yet to plummet. Yet most food we eat relies on rainfall cycles and defined seasons. The point is not how much rain falls but when. And annual temperature averages hide a new reality: the patterns of hot and cold are changing. My own farm typifies what I now see from Kalamata to California...Late each winter, the trees are cut back hard. In spring, buds cover the new wood. By fall, branches droop under the weight of green fruit. As they turn purplish black in December, the olives are pressed into oil to remember. It is December now, and my trees should be heavy with olives. But they're not. Like last year, rains fell at the wrong time, too hard or too soft. When it mattered, there was no rain at all. A warming trend with freak cold snaps confuses plant metabolism and emboldens killer pests. Last January, my trees budded, convinced it was spring. Then it froze. In June, the Dacus fly bored into the fruit, causing it to drop off the tree. Many olive growers are somewhere between disbelief and denial... The Italian government predicts the olive crop for 2007 will be about 500,000 tons, 17 percent less than last year. Truffle news is likewise calamitous, because of drought, combined with shifts in the soil. Italy's beloved tartufi bianchi, those pungent white truffles, reached a record price in October of $7,500 a kilo. Black truffle season is starting in France, and bidding is headed skyward. At the Saturday market in Draguignan [France], farmers who know each of their turnips personally see the signs in their fruit trees, wheat fields and vegetable gardens. Crops ripen too early or not at all. One grower I respect saw his cherries bloom too early and die in a cold snap. Underground streams are tapped out by mid-summer. As it has routinely since 1988, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has sounded the alarm. Fortified with a Nobel Prize and alarming new evidence, it has dropped "ifs" and "buts." Some argue that a few seasons do not define a trend. But each morning, my trees tell me the hard truths."

Christmas Day dinner on Tuesday will be the MOST EXPENSIVE EVER for millions of families in Britain. And it's all linked to our wet summer when torrential rain and flooding ruined crops across the UK, Europe and even America. The freak weather reduced yields - and upped prices - of everything from potatoes to poultry corn, chipolatas to chestnuts, and cranberry sauce to Brussels sprouts. Wine, already heavily taxed, has gone up by between 50p and £1.50 a bottle across the board. Organic turkeys big enough to feed eight are as much as £100 due to the high cost of corn feed and the bird flu outbreak. The summer floods devastated root vegetable crops. "Increased prices on festive groceries have put enormous pressure on the pockets of UK households." There are bargains to be had if people shop around for individual products - but most families simply haven't got the time to go to several supermarkets to seek out bargains. And even if they had, the soaring cost of fuel - another factor in rising food prices - would probably not make it worthwhile.

INDONESIA - The government has warned farmers of extreme weather events in regards to climate change. The government has told farmers to be more "creative" to grasp weather patterns that are predicted to become more extreme. "The toughest work for our farmers now is how to adapt to unpredictable weather changes. Long-standing traditional crop cycle systems may no longer be practicable." In the short term - over the next year, until 2009 - the adaptation effort is focused on gathering data on areas vulnerable to droughts or floods, including information on dry and wet seasons. The information is to be distributed to farmers as a guideline to help in re-mapping weather patterns, agricultural seasons and crop cycles. In the medium-term - through 2012 - the plan will see the government create and evaluate an early warning system for drought. In the long term, the government is set to analyze weather anomalies and be able to better predict planting seasons and adjust crop cycles. Just exactly what farmers should expect - of course - the government can't say. However changes in rainfall and drought, they are told, will seriously impact agriculture. In the 1990s, the ministry of agriculture reported an average harvest failure of 100,000 tons per regency across the country due to drought. The failure rate has been around 300,000 tons per regency since 2000. Farmers have repeatedly ben urged to plant crops other than rice - such as corn and soybeans - especially in the dry season, due to the water-intensive nature of rice farming. Currently, most farmers plant rice in both dry and wet seasons.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, December 23, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Family isn't about whose blood you have. It's about who you care about.
Trey Parker and Matt Stone

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/22/07 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.4 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 TONGA
5.1 TONGA
5.3 EASTER ISLAND REGION
12/21/07 -
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA
6.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.8 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Another medium intensity quake rattled the eastern part of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday at dawn, the fourth in five days. The tremor is the fifth registered in the island in 11 days and on which the Dominican authorities have yet to issue information. It occurred at 3:21 a.m. with its epicenter 129 kilometers beneath the surface, in the East region, 74 kilometers from Higüey and 89 from El Seibo. On Tuesday another quake, 3.5 degrees on the Richter scale, was felt at 3:31 a.m., whose epicenter was 119 kilometers deep, 45 kilometers from Higuey and 77 from El Seibo, close to the one Wednesday. Another one took place at 4:10 a.m. last Sunday, 28 kilometers from Monte Plata. On Friday last week an earthquake was also registered in Dominican Republic, 4.6 degrees on the Richter scale, 8 kilometers from the northern town Tamboril, 14 kilometers deep. Four days before another tremor was felt 160 kilometers in depth, 28 kilometers from Monte Plata.

ALASKA - Two significant earthquakes shook Alaska's seismically active Aleutian Islands on Thursday, but there were no immediate reports of any damages or injuries. The magnitude-5.9 and 6.1 quakes struck about one minute apart starting at 2:23 a.m. EST on Friday. Both were centered about 100 miles west of Adak in the island chain. "There were two tonight and that was VERY UNUSUAL. We're going to study this a little more closely." On Tuesday, a magnitude-7.2 quake hit the chain about 125 miles west of Adak.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MALAYSIA - The recent onset of King Tides into coastal towns is an indicator of change taking place. Given that warmer sea water also expands, melting polar caps would accentuate the swell in sea level with potential havoc on key coastal economic and financial centres. Longer, deeper and bigger floods should come as no surprise as a sister of global warming. Rising global temperatures essentially throw an originally stable water cycle into "chaos" and disequilibrium. Higher temperatures stretch and "overcrowd" even the storage capacity of rain clouds in the sky which result in more frequent and high intensity rainfalls. Such super rainfalls also greatly out-gun the absorption capacity of the soil resulting extreme amounts of water surface water staying essentially above ground. The most disastrous consequences happen when the storage capacity of solid water in the polar caps and mountain ranges collapses, discharging melted ice into the oceans. Sipadan - one of the most famous dive sites in the world, may disappear for this reason.

CALIFORNIA - Very high tides are predicted for the Southern California coast, but offshore winds and small waves will lessen the possibility of destructive tidal flooding, the National Weather Service said. High tides of as much as 7.6 feet above the mean tide were predicted each morning for four days. But waves are predicted to be less than three feet high, which by Pacific coast winter standards is practically flat. The full moon and relative position of the earth means the natural pull on the ocean is at its highest levels this week, and will culminate in a 7.6 foot high tide at 7:43 a.m. today.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

BANGLADESH - Hundreds of children, if not more, are now believed to have been orphaned by Cyclone Sidr, which devastated large parts of Bangladesh’s southwestern coast on 15 November, killing more than 3,000 people and rendering millions more homeless. “The trauma that these children suffered and the bleak future they face are nearly impossible for others to realise.” Past experience shows that children, especially girls, in disaster-hit areas are highly vulnerable to trafficking and other forms of abuse. Of the 8.5 million people affected by Cyclone Sidr, about half were children and an estimated half a million of them were under the age of five.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MISSISSIPPI - Thursday's tornado in the Heuck's Retreat community, which appeared suddenly and destroyed or damaged several homes, was reported by the National Weather Service as an EF2 with winds of more than 110 miles per hour. The tornado touched down two and one-half miles east of the Brookhaven Municipal Airport and finally broke up two miles west of the Woolworth Community, carving out a damage path of approximately nine miles in length. The survey team reported that the 110 mph winds tossed furniture and appliances more than 100 yards through the air. The strange thing about Thursday's tornado in Lincoln County was not its size, strength or duration, but its presence in the first place. "December tornadoes are UNUSUAL in Mississippi...We have two severe weather seasons - one in April and May, and the other in November. Both severe weather seasons for us this year have been rather uneventful."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TAJIKISTAN - An avalanche has killed at least 16 people in the mountains of Tajikistan, while more people remain trapped under the snow. The avalanche came after several days of heavy snowfall and hit a road that connects the capital, Dushanbe, with the city of Khudjand. The road, a key link in the mountainous country, used to be closed over the winter. But this year it stayed open following the construction of the Anzob tunnel that goes under the main snow-covered route.

U.S. - A winter storm packing heavy snow walloped the central United States, causing at least 5 deaths and dozens of injuries as multi-car pileups forced authorities to close parts of several major highways. The storm Saturday blew heavy snow from Texas to Minnesota. Much of the region was still recovering from a severe ice storm early last week that knocked out electricity for hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. At least three people in Minnesota and one person each in Texas and Kansas were killed in traffic accidents that authorities said were weather related. Strong winds could make traveling hazardous all weekend. In Texas, the one person died in a chain-reaction pileup involving more than 50 vehicles, including several tractor-trailer rigs, on Interstate 40. Eighteen people were taken to hospitals, two with life-threatening injuries. "There were cars crashing while they (firefighters) were there. They could hear them (the crashes), but they couldn't see them." Many were holiday travelers, including families with small children not dressed for the weather. Other drivers spotted them and opened Christmas presents to provide warmer clothing for the children. The tangle of twisted cars and trucks shut down the interstate for most of the day. Authorities believe the pileup was caused by blowing snow and the resulting zero visibility. In northeast Kansas, at least one person was killed in a 30-car pileup on Interstate 70, prompting authorities to close a 40-mile stretch of the highway. The pileup occurred about 30 miles west of Topeka. The fierce snowstorm caused another wreck involving 20 to 40 vehicles, including three tractor-trailer rigs, on Interstate 29 in St. Joseph in western Missouri. Police closed about 100 miles of I-29 to the Iowa state line. Wind was blowing at sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph in Oklahoma, where U.S. 412 near Mooreland in western Oklahoma was closed after up to 20 cars slid off the road or crashed. The storm also impacted flights at airports in the Midwest, as the busy pre-Christmas weekend travel was getting underway. The delays rippled across the country, affecting flights in the New York region.

MASSACHUSETTS - Was there really a fall this year? It just seemed like we cruised with no transition from summer to winter. It was an autumn of polar opposites, with most of the fall seeing above average and often downright summer-like temperatures, and the tail end experiencing temps well below normal and weather usually found in the heart of winter. The weather changed so abruptly with the two recent snowstorms and Arctic chill, many homeowners didn't finish raking leaves before the wintry conditions descended. An 11-inch snowstorm Dec. 13 came earlier and heavier than expected, gridlocking students and employees heading home from school and work. A 5.5 inch snowstorm three days later that was accompanied by sleet, freezing rain and rain made for icy conditions that persist, leading to plenty of slip and falls and vehicle crashes. With almost 17.5 inches of snow falling before winter arrived, from the two major storms and two minor ones this month, the Attleboro area has already surpassed last winter's total of 14.5 inches. The 11-inch storm on Dec. 13 fell into a two-way tie for the third biggest one-day snowfall for December. Tuesday's low temperature bottomed out at a frigid 8 degrees and Wednesday's low was in the teens. The picture was a complete turnaround from most of autumn, with many days registering temperatures 20 degrees higher than normal for the time of year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

CHINA is suffering its WORST DROUGHT IN A DECADE, which has left millions of people short of drinking water and has shrunk reservoirs and rivers. Hardest hit are large swathes of the usually humid south, where water levels on several major rivers have plunged to HISTORIC LOWS in recent months. "The drought is the most serious of the decade and is affecting almost the whole country." The surface area of the country's largest fresh water lake, Poyang, in the southern province of Jiangxi, had fallen to a record 50 sq km (19 sq miles) from several thousand sq km at its peak. More than 760,000 residents faced drinking water shortages in the rice-growing province. The Gan river, Poyang's main tributary, has been hit by serious boat traffic jams due to the shallow water. Similar congestion has also occured on the Xiang river in neighbouring Hunan province and authorities have had to release water from behind the massive Three Gorges Dam to ease cargo ship stranding downstream on the Yangtze River, China's longest. The southwestern region of Guangxi has been hit by its WORST DROUGHT SINCE 1951, with over a million people suffering from drinking water shortages. About 400,000 hectares (1,545 sq miles) of crops have been damaged by drought this year, leading to total grain losses of 37.4 million metric tonnes. Consecutive droughts over past years have compounded the situation. Drought and floods are perennial problems in China, whose meteorologists have complained about the increased extreme weather and partly blamed it on global climate change. About 30 million Chinese in the countryside and more than 20 million in urban areas face drinking water shortages every year despite huge government investment to address the problem.
Rapidly melting glaciers threaten great rivers - warming has caused some of China's glaciers, a source for many of Asia's greatest rivers, to have melted by more than 18 per cent over the past five years. A survey of nearly 20,000 square kilometres of China's glaciers showed they were on average 7.4 per cent smaller than five years ago. China's glaciers, in the west of the country, feed many of Asia's greatest rivers, including the Yangtze, Mekong, Yellow and Ganges, as well as the Brahmaputra. In the past four decades, China's glaciers shrank by 3248 square kilometres, or 5.5 per cent since the 1960s, according to previous studies. One of China's top glaciologists warned last year of an "ecological catastrophe" in Tibet because of global warming. He said most glaciers in the region could melt away by 2100.

NORTH CAROLINA - Needles pile up as drought dries North Carolina Christmas trees. A RECORD North Carolina drought and temperatures close to 80 degrees Fahrenheit (17 Celsius) this month are creating trees that are quickly losing their needles. More consumers are skipping outdoor lots and buying artificial trees. Some who choose real ones are paying higher prices after the drought pushed up farmers' costs. Cultivating trees has been a struggle. The lack of rain, which also caused water shortages in Florida, Georgia and Alabama, killed as many as 40 percent of saplings. Money spent on fertilizer was wasted because the parched earth couldn't absorb it. Rainfall in Asheville was 35.4 inches (90 centimeters) through Dec. 17, a quarter less than normal.

AUSTRALIA - As the eastern states are pummelled by raging storms and flash floods, Perth is set to swelter through a Christmas-week heatwave. And the rest of summer is expected to be warmer than usual. January to March is expected to make up for the late onset of warmer weather this year. There is more than a 50 per cent chance that this summer will exceed the average median temperature. Perth had endured seven days above 40C in 2007, compared to the average of three days a year. If the temperature again exceeds 40C in the next week, this year will set the record for the most number of very hot days. This heatwave follows several weeks of UNUSUALLY cool weather. In fact, Perth is set to record only its 10th year, since records began in 1897, in which November has been warmer than December. The average temperature so far this month was 24.9C, compared with the December average of 28.8C. November this year was Perth's WARMEST AND SUNNIEST ON RECORD, due primarily to an absence of cold fronts. The average maximum was 28.5C, compared with the historical average of 26.2C. Perth's sunshine stands in stark contrast to the wild weather ravaging Australia's eastern seaboard. Since midnight Friday, a RECORD 171 millimetres of rain has fallen at Coonamble in New South Wales' north-west. There a large number of rural property owners isolated because their roads are washed away or impassable because of heavy rain. (photo)

INDIA - Mumbai's WARMEST CHRISTMAS IN YEARS - In an UNUSUAL fluctuation after a cool spell through the second half of November and the first couple of weeks in December, temperatures have now begun to surge. On Friday morning, Colaba recorded a minimum temperature of 24 degrees C, distinctly up from the 17-20 degrees C range in which the weather had remained during the nights in preceding weeks. Weather bureau officials expect this heat to persist through Christmas, which is traditionally known for cool weather in the city. The city is experiencing hot days and nights in the last weeks of December due to the circulation of westerly winds over Mumbai. "The city is receiving westerly winds which are hotter than the northerly winds that cool the atmosphere." The change has affected Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra as well as Goa. "The changing climatic system has resulted in moisture in the atmosphere, which in turn has increased the humidity." The humidity has crept in after the first fortnight of the month. On December 10, the minimum temperature was 18.2 degrees C; on December 15, it fell to 17.2 degrees C; on the 16th, it rose to 19.5 degrees C; thereafter the mercury has climbed steadily, touching 24 degrees C on Friday. In fact, Friday's recording was just three degrees less than the minimum temperature recorded on a summer day - May 21, 2007. December is otherwise known to be pleasant in the city. For the last four years, the city has been cold in December with night temperatures dropping to 13-16 degrees.

CHILE - While Chile has a blazing desert at its head, its feet lie beneath ice, with 7,000 square miles of continental ice masses and the hundreds of thousands of square miles of Antarctica that they claim. Global warming is melting Antarctica, and as a result large quantities of water will inundate their coastline. The beautiful Andean glaciers of southern Chile are also melting before our eyes. In Santiago, a few thousand miles from Antarctica, boiling hot temperatures have heralded the start of summer. They are advised to go to the beach only in late afternoon. The climate change has done serious damage to fruit and vegetable crops, most particularly the avocado. An exporter said that this season’s uncharacteristic frosts ruined 40 percent of his crop. Among farmers a feeling of apprehension has taken hold; the weather has always been slightly capricious, but of late it has become altogether unpredictable.

SPACE WEATHER-
Asteroid could collide with Mars on Jan. 30 - A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a one-in-75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday in Los Angeles. "These odds are EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. We frequently work with really long odds when we track threatening asteroids." The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to an object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb and wiping out 60 million trees. Scientists tracking the asteroid, currently halfway between Earth and Mars, initially put the odds of impact at one in 350 but increased the chances this week. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after new observations of the asteroid's orbit. The asteroid will likely pass within 30,000 miles of Mars. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it will probably hit near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 13 kilometres a second, the asteroid would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, December 21, 2007 -

There will be no updates on the 25th and 26th.
[Although I'll be checking in just in case we get another big Christmas quake this year.
12/26/2003 6.6 Bam, Iran quake (31,000 killed)
12/26/2004 9.3 Indonesia quake / tsunami
12/26/2006 7.1 & 7.0 Taiwan quakes (8 minutes apart) / minor tsunami]

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The human brain starts working the moment you are born
and never stops until you stand up to speak in public.
George Jessel

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there have been a 6.1 & a 5.9 quake in the ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/20/07 -
5.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 CENTRAL TURKEY
6.6 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.3 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

NEW ZEALAND - After-shocks continue to shake the Gisborne area on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake flattened buildings in the centre of the town last night. An apartment block and two shops collapsed, several roofs caved in, winery vats burst and gaping holes opened in roads. A state of emergency was declared this morning, as another tremor hit at 6.47am today, registering 4.5 on the Richter scale. The after-shocks are expected to last for some time, although most will be “minor”. “It’s hard to say exactly how long they’ll go on for, but we’ll be recording them for weeks. Most will be small, and especially as it’s off-shore, most won’t be felt.” The quake was more powerful than the 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake. The last fatal earthquake in the country was in 1968 when a quake measuring 7.1 killed three people on the South Island’s west coast.
Reports of attempted looting are emerging this morning as Gisborne retailers return to their shops to survey the widespread damage from the 6.8 magnitude earthquake. Gisborne's mayor urged residents to head for the hills if another earthquake struck the region amid tsunami fears after the initial quake. He said because the 6.8 magnitude earthquake was centred close to shore, south east of the city, there was no tsunami warning system. Residents said the quake arrived with an "enormous roar". "It sounded like thunder, but a lot worse because it was a constant roar." (photos)
NEW ZEALAND - The Earthquake Commission has processed about $2 million in claims for damage caused by a series of earthquakes that rocked Southland earlier this year. Thousands of aftershocks caused the earth to move for southerners in the weeks following an initial quake measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, which struck on October 16, 60km west of Milford.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DAMA was 1077 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

CUBA still dealing with Tropical Storm Noel's aftermath. Cuba's eastern provinces are still hurting many weeks after RECORD RAINS swelled rivers and destroyed crops. Many homes are in shambles, food is in short supply and the list of needed repairs is long. A nation with an already precarious food supply and inefficient agriculture industry lost 20,000 tons of food. Initial estimates showed nearly 22,000 homes were affected by rain that began in October and did not stop until mid-November. By the time Noel hit, the soil was already soaked and the reservoirs already overflowing. The last time it rained this hard was 44 years ago, when Hurricane Flora killed 1,200 people.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Victoria's emergency workers are being stretched to the limit by wild weather hitting the state – and more of the same is forecast. The State Emergency Service has so far responded to some 1600 calls for assistance around the state after heavy rain caused flash flooding in parts of Victoria. And it seems there will be no respite. Melbourne was bracing for another lashing last night, with the weather bureau saying storms and a band of heavy rain are on track for the city from the north-west. A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said the storms expected could be even worse. The city was lashed with torrential rain about 4.30pm (AEDT) yesterday with public transport thrown into chaos and localised flooding delaying traffic. The worst-hit metropolitan areas so far have been Waverley in the east and Moorabbin, in Melbourne's southeast.
Rain this week of 25mm to 50mm in southwest Western Australia and more than 100mm in the state's eastern interior was UNUSUAL. "It's normally the dry season in that area."

MALAYASIA - Flood watchers and rescue services in the Kuching and Sibu divisions of Sarawak have been ordered to be on maximum alert. There are fears that Kuching and Samarahan could, for the first time in three years, be hit by floods, while Sibu and low-lying areas along the Rajang River could again be inundated by water, the second time in as many weeks, this weekend. "The forecast for areas in central and western Sarawak this weekend is not too good. In fact, it is quite bad. Heavy rain has been forecast for the next 72 hours over these parts of the state. And all it takes is 100ml of rain to trigger a flood." Strong winds of up to 50kph had also been forecast to hit the coastal areas of the southern half of the state over the same period. The winds could push the tides even higher. Floods in the state are normally triggered by the combination of heavy rain and the seasonal king tide, whose cycle starts tomorrow. It ends on Dec 29 with the king tide on Christmas Day the highest at 6.1metres.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, December 20, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Bodily exercise, when compulsory, does no harm to the body;
but knowledge which is acquired under compulsion obtains no hold on the mind.
Plato

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Today there has been a 5.7 quake in central Turkey. Television reported that 10 to 15 houses had been damaged in Sirapinar village near Bala, where the quake occurred at 11:48 a.m. (0948 GMT). The extent of the damage was not clear. So far there have been 43 aftershocks, ranging from 2.9 to 3.7

This morning there has been a 6.6 quake on the NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. "The quake has caused quite a lot of damage in the Gisborne area." The city's central business district lost its power and there was minor damage to some buildings with "lots of glass on the streets". "There were holes opening up in some streets, partial building collapses in some areas." Seismologists record about 14,000 earthquakes a year in and around New Zealand, about 100 to 150 of them big enough to be felt.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/19/07 -
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
7.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. (there have been 37 aftershocks so far, ranging from 2.6 to 5.6)
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 TIMOR REGION
5.4 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION (this was followed by 34 smaller aftershocks, ranging from 2.4 to 4.5)

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - An eruption of the most northern active volcano in Kamchatka – Shiveluch - occurred last night and appeared to be ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL ERUPTIONS OF THE RECENT YEARS. Powerful flows of ash were coming from the volcano crater along with gas flows and fragments of magma substances with the temperature reaching 800 degrees Centigrade. Ash belches went up to 10-12 kilometres high. Satellite photos distinctly show a 600-kilometre ash plume going west from the volcano. At the moment specialists register powerful explosions in the volcano crater; it is said that another eruption may take place soon. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 07S was 766 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

DID OLGA MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL STORM on Sunday? - if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck (although this one was a strange bird)... The return of Olga, and its "landfall" in Florida were very interesting. Just after 5:08 am EST Sunday, an EF1 tornado produced major damage at the Pasco County Jail just north of Tampa. The pressure dropped to 1002.9 mb, consistent with that of a typical low-to-medium strength tropical storm. For example in the past couple of years, the pressure at time of Ernesto's landfall in Florida in 2006 was 1003 mb and Gabrielle had a central pressure of 1005 mb upon reaching the North Carolina coast in September 2007. There were other wind reports in the Tampa area that were sustained near tropical storm force (34+ kts / 39+ mph), and many measurements of gusts up into that range, along with pressures that dropped to below 1006 mb ... and data also shows that the cold front had still not caught up yet. Even though the low was embedded in a pressure trough and wind shift, and the temperature/dewpoint dropped slightly as the convection came through, the air was still relatively tropical, and the cooler & drier air mass did not decisively arrive until a bit later. And although the accompanying storm surge was minor (peak generally ~2' above astronomical tides) given that that the wind field was not comparable in size or strength to that of a large hurricane, there was a noticeable jump in water level as the center/trough went by and the wind shifted. The convection (even though it was shrinking by the time it reached Florida) and the surface low were clearly associated with the remnant Olga circulation. What needs more study ... the strangeness alluded to at the beginning of this entry (aside from the fact that this tropical cyclone redevelopment occurred in the Gulf of Mexico in mid-December!) ... is the nature of the small-scale details as the system came onshore, given that the lowest pressure and strongest winds measured (at Clearwater Beach, if the pressure measurement there was accurate) were south of the supercell-ish circulation which hit the jail and which moved onshore about 15-20 miles north of Clearwater Beach. Also, the satellite imagery shows that the initial flare-up wasn't entirely directly due to the circulation itself, but rather was connected to the mid-latitude system. During that initial phase Saturday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms brought flash flooding and tornadoes to south Alabama and Georgia, respectively, and then as the night progressed the deepest convection coalesced around the remnants of Olga, which regenerated. We'll have to wait and see how the National Hurricane Center classifies this phase of Olga in their final post-event analysis. (satellite photos / graphs)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - South India is experiencing a severe spell of rain due to a depression in the Bay of Bengal which is heading towards Gulf of Mannar. Rains in Chennai have stopped, the delta region has been the worst hit where 16 people have died and now there is a danger of thousands of acres of paddy being destroyed. Thanjavur and Nagapattinam districts received up to 30 centimetres of rain. In Trichy four people lost their lives after a building next to their house collapsed on their roof. Chennai recieved just 9 cms of rain but that was enough to cause water logging. In many pockets people had to wade through ankle deep water and it was a nightmare for motorists. A landslip on the railway tracks near Dindigul temporarily stopped rail traffic and delayed Chennai-bound trains by several hours. The state government also declared a holiday for schools across the state. The met office has ruled out possibility of a cyclone though there is more rain to look forward to. "There will be a wind speed of 40 to 60 kms and wide spread rains across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry." Paddy farmers are shattered as over 1lakh acres of samba crop remain submerged just before harvest. Losses could mount if the rain lashing continues. Bangalore also woke up to heavy rain. Rain is not unknown in December to Bangalore but the UNUSUALLY LOW MAXIMUM temperature has Bangaloreans wrapped up. The city is experiencing a maximum temperature of 22 degrees celsius against the normal 26 degrees. The minimum temperature however, is two degrees above normal for this time of year at 18 degrees.
For India and the world, the suffering is a warning of worse to come, many scientists say. When the monsoon comes each summer to poor Basahi, an Indian village, it brings misery. Raindrops as wide as nickels fall straight and hard. They pool in fields and churn dirt lanes into mud. But this year's monsoon rains were THE HEAVIEST ANYONE CAN REMEMBER in India's northeastern Bihar state. Something has changed, they say, and their fears are confirmed by many in the scientific community who say India's floods are getting worse as global warming alters the earth's climate. In the past, the rains were always interrupted by glimpses of the sun. But this year 20 straight days of rain dumped 91.44cm of water, A RECORD for most of the state. Together with increased run-off from glaciers in Tibet and Nepal, the water swelled the local Budhigandak River and in early August it breached a levee and sent giant waves crashing through the village of Basahi, killing 22 people and adding to a death toll of more than a thousand in Bihar. As the earth has heated over the past century due to global warming, evaporation has increased and the atmosphere has become wetter, leading to heavier storms and more floods. Globally, the number of floods have increased six-fold since 1980. This year, flooding affected more than 250 million people. Many scientists link global warming with recent record-breaking floods in the US Midwest, England and Mexico, where five days of torrential rains in November left most of the state of Tabasco under water and damaged the homes of nearly a million people. But with a four-month monsoon season and millions of poor farmers, India and neighbouring Bangladesh are arguably the world's nations most at risk to increased flooding. To some observers, the impacts of climate change on flooding already are obvious. Evidence suggests that India has experienced a shift in where floods occur as parts of the country have warmed faster than others and weather patterns have changed. While monsoon rains had been very predictable in the past, rainfall in recent years has become more variable. Regions that were not prone to droughts and floods are now prone to them. In India's northwestern Rajasthan state, five districts that were flooded for more than two months last year had never experienced flooding. Meanwhile, India's northeastern Assam state remained mostly dry between 2004 and 2006 but used to be under water for four or five months every year. There has been a shift in the climate cycle. Society needs to be made aware and change in a big way.

NEW ZEALAND - The first rain in more than a month hit the pavements of Palmerston North this week. The rainfall was a welcome respite in a year that might go down as the driest on record. "It's the first significant rain we have had for 32 days...With temperatures up around the mid-20s lately, there is a lot of water loss from the soil. It doesn't take long to evaporate." The unseasonably balmy weather was UNUSUAL for December, and could be put down to the La Nina weather pattern and northerly air streams from the tropics blowing across the country. That's why it has been feeling more like Brisbane or the Cook Islands than the Manawatu of late. Only 32.4mm of rain has been recorded so far for December, with November's total at 63mms. And unless the heavens open and provide 70mm of rain in the next few days, it will be the DRIEST YEAR IN THE NANAWATU IN 38 YEARS - SINCE 1969. The latest figures from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research show November in the Manawatu was 27 percent sunnier than average, with 259 hours of sunshine.

AUSTRALIA - The terrifying wind storm that lashed South Australia's Mallee Wednesday may have been a genuine tornado. The Bureau of Meteorology says it will examine damage at the town of Pinnaroo, where winds were so strong that Stobie poles were bent by its force. Although severe storms are sometimes described as mini-tornados, the giant funnels of wind that regularly cause devastation in the United States are considered RARE here. Between 2.40pm and 3pm, the town received 21.4mm of rain but witnesses said the rain was "almost horizontal" because of the winds, so much of the rain didn't fall in the gauge. Chimneys had fallen over, powerlines were down and the fire station and school had incurred some damage, but there were no injuries reported. "It was stinking hot one minute and then – crash. The winds were just unbelievable and the rain and hail was so strong you couldn't see more than 10m in front of you." An olive grower 40km north of Pinnaroo, said the area was a mess. "We've got 80,000 olive trees and we've probably lost over half of this year's crop." (photo)

MEXICO - Mexican authorities on Tuesday cautiously opened a canal through an enormous landslide that blocked a major river in southern Mexico in November and swept away an entire community. The Grijalva River, the second-largest by volume in Mexico, flowed without incident through an 875-yard-long canal, dug through the middle of an enormous mountain of earth that collapsed Nov. 4 during heavy rains. The landslide buried the town of San Juan de Grijalva, blocked a section of the river and kicked up a huge wave of water, killing 19 people. Before unblocking the river, officials evacuated thousands of downstream residents near the waterway in the southern state of Chiapas and neighboring Tabasco state, as a precaution against flooding.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - Winter arrived early this year. If you look at the calendar it shows that winter’s official arrival is Dec. 22, however residents of Bay St. George South already have a month’s worth of winter weather behind them and if the weather report is correct they have some more coming up. In days gone by it was not unusual to have winter weather begin anytime after November 1. Bay St. George South experienced long, cold winters from the thirties right up to the early eighties, when they started to experience shorter and less cold winters.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Map of global HOT spots.

AUSTRALIA - Continuing drought has seen sheep and lamb numbers in the southern states fall to 80 YEAR LOWS.
South Australia's duck hunting season has been cancelled for 2008 because of the drought.

ASIA - Asian nations, many at risk from climate change, must invest more in urban and indoor farming to help feed the hundreds of millions of people in their growing cities, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Wednesday. Of the 10 countries most affected by extreme weather in 2006, seven were Asian - Afghanistan, China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam. Asia needs secure food supplies for its rising population, and "indoor and urban agriculture is receiving special attention to make most efficient use of space using controlled environments." Weather problems affecting Asia range from drought in recent years in Afghanistan and other central and southwest Asian countries to floods this year in China and Bangladesh. The WMO said it was necessary to improve seasonal prediction, early warning systems, and monitoring for regional droughts, to help farmers decide which crops to grow. Forecasts could also help experts improve their ability to control the spread of pests and diseases. The agency called on countries to provide the latest information on the impact of climate change on water resources, and assess whether modern or traditional methods of collecting rainwater were best for them.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

PAKISTAN said there was no threat of a pandemic from bird flu, as World Health Organisation experts carried out tests in the country's northwest after eight people were infected by the virus.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A room without books is like a body without a soul.
Cicero

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning a large 7.2 earthquake rattled Alaska's seismically active Aleutian Islands, but there were no immediate reports of any damages or injuries. The quake was centered about 125 miles west of Adak in the island chain (some 1,300 miles away from Anchorage). A tsunami warning was canceled early today after officials determined waves from the earthquake posed no widespread destructive threat.
A separate earthquake of magnitude-4.0 shook Cal