MARCH & APRIL 2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
He who experiences the unity of life sees his own Self in all beings,
and all beings in his own Self,
and looks on everything with an impartial eye.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.2 quake in NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/29/08 -
5.9 BANDA SEA
5.3 MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.8 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

CALIFORNIA - A magnitude 5.2 earthquake shook a rural part of northern California on Tuesday evening. The moderate quake hit shortly after 8 p.m. (11 p.m. ET) about 11 miles east-southeast of Willow Creek, which is about 190 miles northwest of Sacramento. Officials had received no reports of injuries or damage.
‘Sonic boom’ preceded the 5.2 quake - The Unites States Geological Survey termed it a level VI temblor with a strong shake and light damage. A magnitude-2.0 aftershock hit five minutes later, 16 miles to the east of Willow Creek. “It was sort of like a sonic boom. It was a very loud noise before the house started shaking. It was pretty scary, the biggest thing I’ve ever felt here. (It) lasted 10 seconds max. I didn’t feel the aftershock.” “We felt it good. It was a short one with a heavy shake. We’ve got a free-floating ceiling fan and it was rocking and rolling.” “Everyone had time to go outside and come back and the glass shelf was still shaking. It was a hard jolt, but things kept swaying for a couple minutes afterwards. We had a few things fall off the shelf. Nothing major. It wasn’t as bad as the big one in Ferndale a few years ago. That knocked me off my feet.” “I’ve felt earthquakes before, but NEVER HEARD THAT LOUD OF A NOISE BEFORE.”

NEVADA - Residents in Reno are being shaken, literally, by an ongoing series of earthquakes, which experts warn could be a precursor to a major seismic event. Since late February, hundreds of earthquakes have rattled parts of west Reno. The strongest quake — with a magnitude of 4.7 — hit shortly before midnight last Friday, cracking walls and breaking windows. More than 200 additional small quakes have followed, including two Monday evening and some small earthquakes Tuesday. "My nerves are shot. I can't do it anymore," said a woman who has moved to a relative's house in the southern part of Reno, away from where the quakes have clustered. She plans to stay away "as long as it takes." The Reno earthquake swarm is UNUSUAL. That's because a primary earthquake usually is followed by aftershocks diminishing in strength. These quakes started out small and the general trend shows them building in strength. Previously a California resident said she's accustomed to earthquakes, and has experienced bigger ones than are occurring in Reno. "But not swarms of them. Not day after day after day. It's getting very tiresome."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone NARGIS was 495 nmi S of Calcutta, India.

NARGIS - As has been forecast already, the Bay of Bengal has thrown up a major tropical cyclone, Nargis, on Tuesday. Nargis is threatening to whip up speed and intensity, if forecasts by the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are any indication. The JTWC observed that the powerful storm-in-the-making had brought its huge belly to bear down on the open waters 290 nautical miles (537 km) east of Chennai on Tuesday. The massive system seems to have stopped on its tracks at this position, but was rustling up the attributes that would transform it to a system of significant intensity over the next 36 hours. Nargis would then recurve along a path back to the high seas, move away from the southeast Indian coast and head north-east towards the Myanmar coast over the next four days. The JTWC assessed that the storm would pack maximum sustained wind speeds clocking 95 knots (175 kmph) gusting up to 115 knots (213 kmph) over the next 36 hours. This would make it powerful storm. Nargis is now a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (Category 4). The storm already features an eye, around which it would build its destructive strength thanks to the favourable environment provided by the warmth of the seas, low vertical wind shear, and good ventilation effect at the top of the towering formation rising to 10 to 12 km in height.

PHILIPPINES are bracing for a typhoon-intensive year as around 20 tropical cyclones are expected to hit the archipelago in the coming rainy season. As the month of May is about to arrive, the government has started making preemptive preparations for the "typhoon season." The disaster preparedness skills include water and urban search and rescue, hazard mapping and ensuring enough stocks of food and other necessities.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - North Cotabato officials have declared a state of calamity in the province after floods last Saturday caused millions worth of damage to crops and infrastructure. The floods severely affected the towns of Pigkawayan, Libungan, Midsayap, Aleosan, Alamada, Pikit and Matalam. Millions worth of palay and corn as well as infrastructure were reported to have been damaged. No fatalities were reported in the floods.

SRI LANKA - Floods, landslides hit several areas - Torrential rains have sent several areas in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle under water forcing the education authorities to close down schools. Several rivers in Ratnapura, Kuluganga, Weganga, Kuruganga and Hangamu Ganga were at spill level. Hundreds of families in Pelmadulla and Devalegama areas were evacuated because of floods. An earthslip occurred in Ratmalgoda when a house was crushed and buried under tons of mud around 6.30 p.m. on Sunday. 6 people were killed. The Meteorology Department warned that a tropical storm that had developed in the Bay of Bengal would bring heavy showers and landslides. The tropical storm was 700 km away from Jaffna and rain would continue in the south-western parts of the island. “There will be intermittent showers or thundershowers accompanied by fairly strong winds." The Met Department also warned that there would be landslides with loosening of soil due to heavy downpours.

AUSTRALIA - Flooding causes major damage to NSW dairy region - Dairy farmers in the Manning Valley on the NSW mid-north coast have begun assessing flood damage after 400 millimetres of rain fell in just eight days. Milk tankers haven't been able to get to a number of properties and farmers have had to dump milk. An estimated 500 hectares of recently sown pastures have been lost, and will cost up to $400,000 to re-sow in time for winter. A lack of feed will lead to less milk production. "I think it'll be down probably by anywhere up to 20%. The cows have just had to be take off pastures and hand-fed in a lot of areas."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TEXAS - A RECORD LOW temperature of 42 was set for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Tuesday morning. A cold front on Sunday brought unseasonal lows for the end of the month.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Hunger makes bats 'act strangely' - Bats found lying on the ground and being mobbed by birds flying in daylight could be linked to extreme hunger, an expert has said. The handful of incidents may be related to last year's poor summer and autumn in Britain. It is too early to tell if the problem is more widespread. Last year, adult bats were reported abandoning their young as they struggled to cope with bad weather. The first bats of the season are emerging from hibernation. "Down here in the central belt people have found grounded bats which were very weak and very hungry. This may be a reflection of last summer and juveniles not getting enough food to build up fat to survive through hibernation..."Someone visiting Mull reported seeing a bat flying during daylight and mobbed by birds. For bats to be flying in daylight is something strange and you don't normally see and could mean the bat was really hungry." In day time bats run the risk of falling prey to other animals and it has been known for them to be mobbed and eaten by crows.

FOOD / WATER-
100 million people have already been pushed into poverty over the last two years due to a man-made food crisis, while as many as two billion are on the verge of disaster. “This is not a natural disaster,” said the president of the World Bank. “Make no mistake; there is nothing natural about this. But for millions of people it is a disaster.” He noted that hunger and malnutrition were already the underlying causes of death of over 3.5 million children every year, robbing the future potential of many millions more. In Washington, a US government commission is investigating claims that big investors who buy large quantities for future trading are largely responsible for the current UNPRECEDENTED hike in food prices across the world. The use of corn and soyabean as bio-fuel also contributed to this crisis by moving farmers away from food to cash crops and by driving food prices beyond the reach of common people. After an annual meeting in Washington earlier this month, the bank warned that the world is facing an UNPRECEDENTED food crisis which may cause riots and wars if not checked. "The next few weeks are critical for addressing the food crisis. For 2 billion people, high food prices are now a matter of daily struggle, sacrifice and for too many, even survival.”

Thailand, the world’s biggest rice exporter, faces no shortage rice even as global prices are soaring. Thailand isn’t suffering a rice shortage and will continue to export the grain. Thailand has not imposed any export restrictions so far. But if exports cross 11-12 million tonnes, a restriction might be imposed. Thailand has seen its overseas sales of rice jump 67% in the first four months of 2008 partly due to export restrictions in India and Vietnam. Rice Exporters Association of Thailand said that limits imposed on rice purchases in US stores spread panic among consumers. This has led to people stocking rice. Instead of buying two bags, they buy 10. Prices of Thai rice for export - considered a regional benchmark - have tripled since December to about $1,000 a ton. White rice exports have soared 184% while high end jasmine rice is up almost 23% as Indian exports stopped.

India’s food grains production (rice and corn) is all set for a RECORD HIGH in 2007-08 at 227.3 mn tonnes. The total foodgrains production is slated to reach an all-time high at 227.3 million tonnes, recording an increase of 4.6 per cent over the previous year (217.3 million tonnes). The production during 2007-08 would exceed the target set earlier (221.5 million tonnes) by 5.8 million tonnes. The bumper crop of rice followed in the wake of above-average monsoon rains during the June-September monsoon.

Wheat crop failures could be total, experts warn - On top of record-breaking rice prices and corn through the roof on ethanol demand, wheat is now rusting in the fields across Africa. Officials fear near total crop losses, and the fungus, known as Ug99, is spreading. Wheat prices have been soaring this week on top of already high prices, and futures contracts spiked, too, on panic buying. Experts fear the cost of bread could soon follow the path of rice, the price of which has triggered riots in some countries and prompted countries to cut off exports. The deadly fungus, Puccinia graminis, is now spreading through some areas of the globe where "crop losses are expected to reach 100%.” Losses in Africa are already at 70% of the crop. "The ramifications are serious. Food rioting continues to expand around the world. We saw the most recent in Johannesburg. So far this unrest has been directed at rising prices. ACTUAL SHORTAGES ARE STILL TO COME.” The fungus has spread from its initial outbreak site in Africa to Asia, including Iran and Pakistan. Spores of the fungus spread with the winds. Approximately a quarter of the world’s global wheat harvest is currently threatened by the fungus. Scientists fear that the spores could spread on the wind and reach the U.S. and Canada or Europe. "It will take five to eight years to genetically engineer a resistance. In the interim, U.S. agriculture faces higher risk.” Meanwhile, global wheat stocks are at lows not seen in half a century.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first.
And whatever you hit, call it the target."
Ashleigh Brilliant

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/28/08 -
5.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.7 VANUATU
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 GUERRERO, MEXICO

NEVADA - In just 16 hours, 35 earthquakes rocked the Reno area on Monday. And that has a lot of people, including seismologists, asking what about Las Vegas? UNLV professors who study earthquakes in Nevada say the Reno area has a higher risk of an earthquake, but Las Vegas faces more of a hazard from an earthquake. Reno earthquakes shake side to side. Earthquakes in Las Vegas are more violent because they shake up and down. In fact, some say it is not a matter of if but when. There's a 30% chance there could be a magnitude 7 within the next 50 years. People in Reno are cleaning up from not just one but 10 earthquakes over magnitude 3.3 since Friday. The strongest earthquake in that area happened Friday night, measuring magnitude 4.7. But just Monday morning, another one almost as strong rocked Reno. The shake, rattle, and roll has geologists in Las Vegas watching the measuring equipment closely. Quakes in Reno can trigger quakes in Vegas. "We don't know how close our faults in the Las Vegas basin are going." There are two schools of thought - one, that Reno is seeing an earthquake swarm of hundreds of smaller quakes. Or that these may be the foreshocks to a really big one.
At least 52 earthquakes were recorded in Northern Nevada between midnight Sunday and 8 p.m. Monday. The strongest was magnitude 4.2 recorded at 4:33 a.m. Most of the earthquakes registered below a 2.0. A 2.5 was recorded at 5:12 a.m. and a 2.0 was recorded at 2:34 p.m. Most of the earthquakes were centered near Verdi-Mogul or Reno. A 1.9 was recorded near Silver Springs at 7:41 p.m.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone NARGIS was 564 nmi SSW of Calcutta, India.

A cyclonic storm called Nargis is brewing over the Bay of Bengal and may hit the India-Bangladesh coast in the next four to five days. The cyclone formed over the southern part of the Bay is likely to intensify further and move in a northerly direction and cross the coast. Maximum sustained wind speed within 54 km of the storm centre was about 62 kmph, rising to 88 kmph in gusts or squalls. The meteorological department has sent a note of warning to the Department of Agriculture Extension, asking it to advance the harvest of the standing paddy crop, which farmers have been looking forward to following the destruction of last monsoon’s crop by floods and Cyclone Sidr. Super-cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh coast Nov. 15, 2007, killing over 3,000 people and destroying about a million hectares of cultivable land. Despite international help and import of 500,000 tonnes of rice from India, Bangladesh is still battling the food shortage caused by Sidr.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIRGINIA - Three tornadoes ripped through Virginia on Monday, with one hop-scotching across the southeastern part of the state and leaving behind a 25-mile trail of smashed homes, tossed cars and more than 200 injured residents. The twister in Suffolk cut a fickle, zig-zagging path through neighborhoods, obliterating some homes and spraying splintered wood across lawns while leaving those standing just a few feet away untouched. The National Weather Service confirmed that tornadoes struck Suffolk, Colonial Heights and Brunswick County. Meteorologists scribed Suffolk's as a "major tornado." The tornado was estimated at 86 mph to 110 mph, and cut a 300-yard path of destruction. The first tornado touched down around 1 p.m. in Brunswick County. The second struck Colonial Heights around 3:40 p.m. The third touched down multiple times, between 4:30 to 5 p.m., and is believed to have caused damage over a 25-mile path from Suffolk to Norfolk. (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - A cold snap across Victoria's alpine region dumped a heavy layer of snow over the weekend in an encouraging sign that the coming ski season could begin early. After sub-zero temperatures at Falls Creek early Sunday, resort operators hope the colder than normal weather could result in the best conditions on the slopes in several years. About 15cm of snow was dumped on Falls Creek and Mount Hotham and forecasters expected more falls in the region. "For this time of year, it's been QUITE UNUSUAL weather, but from the industry's point of view it's very encouraging." Weather experts are predicting bigger than expected snowfalls in Victoria this season.

ALASKA - A day after Anchorage endured one of the city’s HEAVIEST ONE-DAY SNOWFALLS ON RECORD, people spent what would normally be a spring Saturday digging out and slogging through nearly 2 feet of fresh snow and slush. The spring snow dump is THE HEAVIEST ON RECORD AFTER APRIL 1. The snowfall was the third-heaviest in a single day — measured midnight to midnight — since the National Weather Service started keeping records in Anchorage in 1915. Counting Saturday morning, 17 inches fell in West Anchorage and up to 22 inches in Muldoon. Between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. Friday, snow fell at the rate of nearly 2 inches per hour. Before Friday, the most snow that had ever fallen in one day after April 1 was 8.3 inches. The day’s official tally at the airport: 15.5 inches. This much snow this time of year is HIGHLY UNUSUAL. They had seen a run of blue-sky days in the 50s earlier in the week. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Another April heat wave sent temperatures soaring throughout Southern California, where the mercury reached 103 in Santa Ana, 102 in Fullerton and 100 in Fillmore on Sunday. And there was no relief at the beach. Oxnard SET A RECORD with a 99 degree peak reading, it was A RECORD 95 degrees at Los Angeles International Airport, 94 in San Diego and 87 degrees at Santa Monica Pier. Two weeks ago, record temperatures were also set in a weekend heat wave.

As many as one billion people could lose their homes by 2050 because of the devastating impact of global warming, scientists and political leaders will be warned today. They will hear that the steady rise in temperatures across the planet could trigger mass migration on UNPRECEDENTED levels. Hundreds of millions could be forced to go on the move because of water shortages and crop failures in most of Africa, as well as in central and southern Asia and South America. There could also be an effect on levels of starvation and on food prices as agriculture struggles to cope with growing demand in increasingly arid conditions. Rising sea levels could also cause havoc, with coastal communities in southern Asia, the Far East, the south Pacific islands and the Caribbean seeing their homes submerged. North and west Africans could head towards Europe, while the southern border of the United States could come under renewed pressure from Central America. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees will say that the developed world should start preparing for a huge movement of people caused by climate change. "The displacement of millions of people will be one of the most dramatic ways in which climate change will affect humankind."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Shiny lip balms and glosses may attract ultraviolet rays and increase the risk of skin cancer, warns a dermatologist.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Opec, the oil producing cartel, has warned that the price of crude could keep rising to reach $200 a barrel. The Opec president blamed the falling value of the US dollar, which makes other assets, including oil, more attractive for foreign investors. His comments came as oil prices hit a fresh high, just below $120 a barrel.

Monday, April 28, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Whatever words we utter should be chosen with care
for people will hear them and be influenced by them for good or ill.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.8 quake in GUERRERO, MEXICO.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/27/08 -
5.1 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

MEXICO - A strong earthquake of magnitude 5.8 has shaken the southern Mexican state of Guerrero. The earthquake hit south of the town of Teloloapan just after 7pm (10am AEST today) at a depth of 88km. It was felt strongly in Acapulco but there were no signs of damage. The quake also shook the capital Mexico City, some 160km away.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 01B was 606 nmi SSW of Calcutta, India.

INDIA - The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre issued a cyclone formation alert in the Bay of Bengal even as the India Met Department announced that the prevailing low-pressure area intensified into a depression on Sunday. Formation of a significant tropical cyclone (now ‘numbered’ 95B) is possible within 390 nautical miles (722 km) off Chennai within the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds speeding to 64 kmph warrant its classification as a cyclone. Convective bands to the west of the system began wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation centre (nucleus of the system) on Sunday. Ample upper level ‘window’ effect will allow it to breathe freely and intensify in the process. The low vertical wind shear will keep the towering cloud formation in good stead, affording it just the right environment to prosper. Once it attains the class-matching attributes, it will be named ‘Nargis’. The system is currently headed north-northwest (with India’s southeast coast in sight) but is expected to recurve, head into the open Bay waters and race towards the Myanmar coast. The ADPC model captured the system initially cantering towards the southeast Indian coast, only to be coerced by a westerly steering current to send it back, packing into the central Bay. The warm waters and abundant moisture will fuel calibrated growth before the system bears down on the Myanmar coast around May 2. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - The Government has declared a state of emergency and called out the Papua New Guinea Defence Force to help reopen the Okuk Highway, cut off by a massive landslide in Chimbu Province. The PNGDF was called out to help police provide security and restore public order in Sinasina-Yongumugl where the landslide cut the highway two weeks ago. The landslide occurred 9km east of Kundiawa town which resulted in the closure of the Okuk Highway, thus also resulting a severe shortage of fuel and food supplies. The landslide has directly affected the livelihood of about 2000 people.

CALIFORNIA - Dust devil injures 14 in Montclair - Fourteen people were injured Saturday when a freak wind gust touched down during a church event. The strong circular gust picked up debris - including tents - and sent them spiraling several feet into the air before dropping them back down to the ground at Montera Elementary School. Two people were taken to a hospital - one was struck by a flying tent and the other suffered a knee injury. "It started small. It became big so quick, and then it started to move" toward the people on the black top. Witnesses described the gusts as circular and resembling a tornado. "We've never had anything like this." With Saturday's temperatures climbing into the 90s, the conditions provided perfect dust-devil weather.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SPAIN - Hundreds of people fled wildfires on Saturday on the Spanish island of La Gomera, with some residents taking refuge on the beaches. Separate blazes broke out around the towns of Hermigua, Vallehermoso and Agulo in the northern part of the island. There were no immediate reports about the source of the fires. Amid high winds driving the wildfires, dozens of fire-fighters and volunteers were battling the flames, with aerial support from tanker planes. Spanish military troops in the Canary Islands were expected to join the effort.

CALIFORNIA - WILDFIRES - At least 1000 people were evacuated near Los Angeles and a wedding party was trapped at a campsite as a wildfire raged out of control. 400 homes were evacuated. It is the first major fire of the dreaded northern summer fire season - which since yesterday has consumed 162ha in foothills near California's Santa Anita Canyon, about 25km from downtown Los Angeles. "This is a mandatory evacuation. It could be four to five days before the fire is fully contained."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A VIRUS OUTBREAK in an eastern Chinese city has killed 19 children and left hundreds ill, spreading panic among residents. The intestinal virus called enterovirus 71 or EV71, one trigger of hand-foot-mouth disease, began spreading in Fuyang in Anhui province from early March. The young victims went to hospitals with "fever, along with blisters, ulcers in the mouth or rashes on the hands and feet". In total, 789 were struck by the virus, mostly younger than two years old. "A kid who was just bouncing and jumping around one moment can be gone for good in two or three hours." In 2004, the city became the centre of a national scandal when at least eight babies died from drinking milk powder that investigators later found had no nutritional value. Enterovirus 71 outbreaks have occurred in past years in Taiwan, Malaysia and some East European countries. The report did not identify the source of the virus or say why Fuyang has been hit so badly. Nor did it say why the outbreak was publicly reported only now.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
BRITAIN - GASOLINE - motorists are in a petrol-buying panic after a North Sea pipeline that supplies 40% of the country's oil and gas was shut down because of a strike at a major refinery. The start of a two-day walkout by about 1200 workers at the Grangemouth refinery, west of Edinburgh, forced the neighbouring Forties pipeline to close down. The pipeline takes more than 700,000 barrels of crude oil ashore every day and supplies Britain and international markets. The refinery could take weeks to get fully up and running again after the strike. The strike is already hitting world oil prices. Oil prices hit A NEW TRADING RECORD of just below $120. Many motorists, particularly in Scotland and northern England, were rushing to pumps to stock up, despite government reassurances there was enough in reserve to go round. Some petrol stations introduced rationing or price hikes while others had run dry.

Agflation is an innovative term conceived by economists to explain a new event being created by agricultural markets that is pushing up global food prices. From grains and edible oils to coffee and cocoa, many agricultural commodities are at multi-year highs as a result of robust global demand, climatic changes and the increased production of biofuels. The supply of grain is being affected by the freak weather conditions which have played havoc with the past year’s harvests across the globe. Australia and Canada for example have been suffering their worst drought for more than a century. In the USA, torrential rain has delayed planting, whereas flooding in Bangladesh and Indonesia has curbed world stockpiles. The recent banning of exports and hoarding by some countries are also contributing to food inflation. The breadbasket of Central Asia - Kazakhstan has suspended wheat exports followed by Ukraine and Argentina. Both Vietnam and India now restrict rice exports with the latter importing wheat to build stockpiles. This has caused the WORLDWIDE INVENTORY OF CEREALS TO FALL TO A 25 YEAR LOW. USA STOCKPILES OF WHEAT ARE AT A 62 YEAR LOW which has lead to a 28 YEAR RECORD IN PRICE. In inflation terms, the price of most basic foodstuffs is still much lower than 30 years ago. If prices were to double in the next five years they would still be equivalent to less than their historic average. Analysts believe that this bull market in agricultural commodities is still in its infancy.

Sunday, April 27, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Peace comes from within. Do not seek it without.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/26/08 -
6.1 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 WESTERN KAZAKHSTAN
4/25/08 -
5.1 TONGA

NEVADA - Scientists urged residents of northern Nevada's largest city, Reno, to prepare for a bigger event as the area continued rumbling Saturday after THE LARGEST EARTHQUAKE IN A TWO-MONTH-LONG SERIES of temblors. More than 100 aftershocks were recorded on the western edge of the city after a magnitude 4.7 quake hit Friday night, the strongest quake around Reno since one measuring 5.2 in 1953. The latest quake swept store shelves clean, cracked walls in homes and dislodged rocks on hillsides, but there were no reports of injuries or widespread major damage. Seismologists said the recent activity is UNUSUAL because the quakes started out small and continue to build in strength. The normal pattern is for a main quake followed by smaller aftershocks. "A magnitude 6 quake wouldn't be a scientific surprise. We certainly hope residents are taking the threat seriously after last night." Reno's last major quake measured 6.1 on April 24, 1914, and was felt as far away as Berkeley, California. A rockslide triggered by Friday night's quake was blamed for causing a 125-foot breach in a wooden flume that carries water to one of two water treatment plants in Reno, a city of about 210,000. A backup pump was used to divert water to the plant, and the breach was not expected to cause any water shortages. Friday night's quake was centered around Mogul, just west of Reno. The area of upscale homes along the eastern Sierra was rattled by more than 100 quakes the day before, the strongest a magnitude 4.2 that caused high-rise casinos to sway in downtown Reno. The strongest aftershock measured 3.7 and was recorded early Saturday. Hundreds of mostly minor quakes have occurred along one or possibly more faults since the sequence began Feb. 28. The quakes have occurred along an area about 2 miles long and a half-mile wide. "We can't put a number on it, but the probability of a major earthquake has increased with this sequence." It's getting a little bit frightening. I'm very concerned about this increase in not only activity, but also in magnitude." The quakes around Reno began a week after a magnitude 6 temblor in the northern Nevada town of Wells, near the Utah border. The Feb. 21 quake caused an estimated $778,000 in damage to homes, schools and historic downtown buildings. Scientists said they're unsure whether the seismic activity at opposite sides of Nevada is related.

VOLCANOES -
PERU - Residents in the district of Ubinas, one of three provinces in the southwestern region of Moquegua, are complaining about an active volcano in their district once again. The district of Ubinas is home to Peru's most active volcano, a stratovolcano also known as Ubinas. Townspeople in the area are complaining of migraines and respiratory illnesses which are being attributed to the ash, smoke and toxic gases the volcano is emitting. The gases the volcano is emitting have affected 800 people in the Ubinas valley. There is the possibility that drinking water and water used to irrigate could be contaminated the way it was in 2006. Almost exactly two years ago, on April 23, 2006 the Peruvian government declared a state of emergency in the valley when it was determined that the volcano was active. The volcanic ash being emitted by Ubinas is affecting the grass on farms, making it impossible for livestock to eat. After three volcanic explosions formed a column of ash and gas two kilometers high (6561 feet), the Geological, Mining and Metallurgical Institute reported on Wednesday that Ubinas' activity continues to increase. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - an Air India Express pilot flying over the Bay of Bengal noticed an "UNUSUALLY BIG WAVE" in the sea at 11:30 am on Thursday (April 24). The pilot, flying an aircraft from Singapore to Trichy, noticed the wave when the aircraft was 50 nautical miles from the Tamil Nadu coast. According to the pilot, the wave was running in a direction from north to south and parallel to the Tamil Nadu coastline. The Tamil Nadu government was alerted after its chief secretary was informed of the observation. The Tamil Nadu government is believed to be keeping a close watch on the situation in view of the devastating tsunami that struck the state over three years ago. Incidentally, the district collector of Nagapattinam has also been informed of the pilot’s observation. Nagapattinam was one of the worst affected districts in the killer tsunami which hit Tamil Nadu in December 2004. "Even when the aircraft is at an altitude of thousands of feet, it is possible for the pilot to make such an observation clearly as the ocean is usually very placid. Such an observation can also prove extremely useful in tipping off the authorities about any possible disturbances in the ocean, especially in the wake of the killer tsunami that struck Tamil Nadu four years ago." The authorities in Tamil Nadu have been on the lookout for marine disturbances ever since the earthquake in the seabed near Indonesia sparked off the killer tsunami and tidal waves, resulting in thousands of deaths in Tamil Nadu in December 2004. The tsunami caused massive destruction in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, besides Tamil Nadu, as well as in Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IOWA - Heavy rainfall Friday added to ground already fully saturated with moisture has led to flooding all across Eastern Iowa — and it could get worse. The Cedar River was at 10.1 feet Friday afternoon, and is forecast to crest at 18.5 feet at 7 a.m. Tuesday. "If that does happen, it will basically tie it for the sixth largest flood on record." More than an inch of rain fell here Friday, increasing the level of the Cedar River and causing problems for the sanitary sewer system.

AUSTRALIA - This month Sydney has endured its LONGEST UNBROKEN WET SPELL FOR 77 YEARS, but the rain has refused to cross the border. Just six millimetres has fallen in Melbourne so far this month, well below the average April rainfall of 57 millimetres. A high pressure zone in the Tasman Sea was preventing the rain hovering over Sydney from moving out to sea. "The weather's been anything but normal over the last six months. I've been in this game for 20 years, and I CAN'T RECALL A LONGER PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WEATHER PATTERNS, of various kinds." The La Nina cycle, in which warm areas of ocean to Australia's north and east create wetter conditions on land, has also played a part. The prospect of good rain has Victorian wheat farmers, who have endured years of drought, preparing their fields for seed planting. With global wheat stocks low and grain attracting record prices, a good wheat harvest this year could help farmers recover from years of financial hardship.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - After heat wave, it’s water scare - Lakes drying up fast. If the scorching summer was not bad enough, Jharkhand is now on the threshold of an acute water crisis with authorities detecting a 30cm depletion over last year’s findings of the groundwater table this year. As a result, there has been a remarkable decrease of water level in three reservoirs around the state capital, one of them — Rukka Dam — witnessing a decrease of six feet over the corresponding period last year. In April last year the water level of Rukka revolved around 17ft. This year it is at less than 11ft. "Moreover, pre-monsoon groundwater level is also constantly declining as mining of groundwater through deep-borings has increased manifold.” The condition is the same with Gonda dam in the posh Kanke area, where many multi-storeyed buildings have been constructed in the past five years. “If water level decreases at this pace, supply has to be stopped within the next 15 days."
The recent spurt in captive elephant violence is being attributed to climatic changes. The change in climate brought about by the off-season rain has advanced the musth period in many elephants. (Musth is characterized by a thick, tar-like secretion from the temple area of the face. Scientific investigation of musth is greatly hindered by the fact that, once under the influence of musth, even the most otherwise placid of elephants may actively try to kill any and all humans.) Musth is an indication of robustness in elephants. Musth occurs only in healthy elephants between the age of 16 to 60 as a three-month annual cycle. The tendency to attack during musth was somewhat constant over the years. The off-season rain this year has had a devastating effect on captive tuskers. The heat and humidity caused by the intermittent rain have advanced the musth period.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, April 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Smile. Enjoy life.
Hawaiian saying

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/24/08 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.5 VANUATU
5.4 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 BANDA SEA

The earthquake in Illinois could portend an emerging threat - the New Madrid Fault may have seen its day and the Wabash Fault is the new kid on the block. The Illinois earthquake registered 5.2 on the Richter scale and hit at 4:40 a.m. with a strong aftershock occurring at approximately 10:15 a.m. that morning, followed by lesser ones in subsequent days. The U.S. Geological Survey has counted more than 20 aftershocks following Friday's tremor. The initial earthquake was felt in parts of 16 states. "A lot of the attention has been on the New Madrid Fault, but the Wabash Valley Fault could be the more dangerous one, at least for St. Louis and Illinois...There hasn't been a magnitude 6 earthquake on the New Madrid zone in more than 100 years, yet in 20 years there have been three magnitude 5 or better earthquakes on the Wabash Valley Fault." Recent re-analysis of data by the USGS shows that the New Madrid fault risk is much less than was thought three decades ago. The three notable earthquakes that occurred at the end of 1811 and the beginning of 1812 were not magnitude 8s, but rather magnitude 7s. A magnitude 8 is 30 times more energetic than a magnitude 7. "The damage to the region by those earthquakes has been exaggerated. St. Louis was here at the time, and all that happened was some chimneys fell in East St. Louis." There are some precursory phenomena that have been observed right before some earthquakes. Radon or helium gas may leak out of the ground as the ground cracks. Sometimes water well pressure changes, or there's a change in the magnetic field. Electrical resistivity changes have been noted, too. These are changes we can measure with instruments, but we can't sense them as humans.
Odd-looking eggs laid after the earthquake - A farmer in Illinois says his chickens are reacting to the aftershocks from last week's earthquake. A strange looking egg was laid by one of his hens Monday at his farm in Greenup, Illinois the day West Salem, Illinois recorded the strongest aftershock so far from Friday's 5.2 earthquake. The same morning of the 4.1 aftershock, one of his chickens laid an egg that was twice the normal size, multi-colored and has odd looking ridges. He's convinced that it's a product of the quake, "I took it out of the nest and my wife said 'What have you got?' She couldn't believe it. I said, there it is it's different. So I waited til' yesterday to see if something was wrong with one of them and they all four laid normal eggs. So, I really think it's got something to do with the aftershock."

OREGON - Another series of earthquakes added to the geological mystery off the Oregon Coast on Monday. Four sizable quakes rumbled off the coastline in a span of four hours Monday night. The largest, a 4.1 earthquake located 115 miles west of Port Orford, occurred at 7:17 p.m. Over the past several weeks, there have been hundreds of small quakes west of the coastal towns of Bandon and Port Orford. They have varied in magnitude from 3.0 to above 5.0. Scientists have said they don't know exactly what the earthquakes mean, but they could be caused by molten rock rumbling away from the recognized faults off Oregon.

BRAZIL - An earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale shook southern Brazil, scaring many but causing no significant damage nor casualties. It was THE STRONGEST TEMBLOR TO HIT THE REGION IN A CENTURY. The city of Sao Paulo felt the movement the most, with residents in high-rise apartments feeling their buildings sway.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Anak Krakatau, a volcanic island in the Sunda Strait, started hurling flaming rocks from its southern crater on Thursday. The red-hot rocks shooting up from its crater have reached as high as 600 meters and are clearly visible from the nearby coast indicating that volcanic activity was set to continue. Thundering sounds have been heard within a radius of three kilometers from the crater. The volcanic tremors have increased in frequency since the Bandung geological disaster center raised the alert status to level III. There are no villages in close vicinity to the volcano, but the island is a popular tourist spot. The Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra became notorious for the devastating eruption of Mount Krakatau in August 1883, when the volcano exploded in one of the most violent eruptions in modern time. The volcanic eruption was audible up to 5,000 kilometers away, and generated a tsunami which circled the globe three times. Over 36,000 people died in the disaster. The volcano destroyed itself in the eruption, but Anak Krakatau, "the child of Krakatau," started emerging at the site in the 1930s.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SCOTLAND - A MASSIVE landslide could cause a huge wave down the River Spey, fishermen have been warned. About 1,000 tons of earth has shifted on a 120ft cliff at Ordequish, Fochabers, and is threatening to crash down into the water. Anglers have been told to stay away from the area on the western side of the river. A section of a field owned by the Crown Estate has dropped over 8ft since Sunday, leaving a scar across the land. Emergency advice is being sought on how to secure the area, which has been fenced off and warning signs advising people to stay clear have been erected. There had been erosion in the area and further downstream at the Quarry Pool, but this week's latest landslip was described as "significant". It is thought the sandy soil crumbled because of dry conditions over the winter months. At one of the houses perched on top of the cliff, the garden has crept closer to the steep drop, now only a few feet from the end of the garden. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
HAITI - Three children were killed and two people injured when a mudslide triggered by torrential rains knocked down a wall and crushed a house in the Haitian capital. "It was raining a lot and a lot of water was coming down from the hill and then the wall collapsed and fell down on the house. The three children killed were 3 months old, 6 years old and 14 years old and the two adults, who were wounded, were taken to the hospital." The poorest country in the Americas, Haiti is vulnerable to flash floods and mudslides because most of its trees have been chopped down to make charcoal for cooking. The majority of its nearly nine million people live in rickety slum dwellings. Haiti is one of several poor nations that has been rocked in recent weeks by violent protests over soaring world food prices.

MALAYSIA - Rain wreaked havoc in the lives of several families in Kajang and in Ampang, Kuala Lumpur. In Taman Bukit, Kajang, the kitchens of two houses crumbled in a landslide after rain. Cracks appeared in three neighbouring houses. In another incident, the kitchens of two homes in Taman Bukit were washed away in a landslide at 7:30am after a thunderstorm. Cracks also developed in the back portion of three neighbouring houses. "It had been raining heavily since 3am, but I never thought something like this would happen." The incident in Ampang was no less scary as part of a boulder struck by lightning broke off from a cliff and came crashing down on a car parked at the Wangsa Heights condominium in Bukit Antarabangsa. Three other cars were also damaged. (photos)

CALIFORNIA - Four multimillion dollar homes in San Diego's upscale La Jolla area have been evacuated as a precaution after a landslide cut a 30-foot-deep crevice in a nearby canyon. City officials are investigating the cause of Wednesday's landslide on the north face of Mount Soledad. The slide appeared to have been caused by an underground leak from a private water line linking homes along Encelia Drive to city water mains. The line has been shut off. Six houses were destroyed after a large collapse on another part of the same mountain in October. At least three significant slides occurred there between 1961 and 1994.

PORTUGAL - Between last Friday and Saturday, Lisbon registered THE MOST RAINFALL EVER SINCE RECORDS WERE FIRST TAKEN 145 years ago. That day was THE THIRD HIGHEST VALUE OF THE 21ST CENTURY. The record of 62.9 millimetres registered in Lisboa/Geofísico weather station exceeded the previous maximum for the month of April. The first absolute extreme registered this century was on 30th January 2004 with 101.2mm of rainfall and the second being 118mm on 18th February 2008. “Considering the series of daily totals over the past 145 years, the value registered constitutes a new extreme for this month and this station”, smashing the previous records of 55mm on 16th April 1995 and 52.6mm on 9th April 1876.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - More than a week of dismal weather was continuing to hold the Lithgow district and Blue Mountains in its grip yesterday. A persistent easterly influence has brought the almost constant drizzle and low temperatures, continuing an UNSEASONAL PATTERN that has been evident for much of the year. Travellers are reporting hazardous driving conditions with fog and low cloud adding to the problems throughout the Blue Mountains.

CANADA - April has been unpredictable, with COLD TEMPERATURES BREAKING RECORDS in Powell River four times and a RECORD-BREAKING HIGH temperature once. Powell River missed a freak snowstorm that brought 24 centimetres of the white stuff to Naniamo on Saturday, April 19. The city hadn't seen measurable snow on April 19 since 1947. The snow in Nanaimo BROKE AN APRIL RECORD which had been set on April 12, 1981 with 4.9 centimetres.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Maharashtra is experiencing a heat wave and Pune is no exception with the mercury levels touching an UNPRECEDENTED 42.1 degrees for this season on Thursday. This was THE THIRD HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED by the Met department in the city for April, the highest instance being 43.3 degrees on April 30, 1897. There will be no reprieve for the citizens in the coming days with the met officers forecasting a steady rise in temperature. The heat wave can be attributed to the northerly winds which were responsible for hot dry air advection. On Wednesday, Akola recorded 45.3 degrees, the highest in the country, followed by Nagpur recording 44.6 degrees. On Thursday, the state saw most of the districts record temperatures above 40 degrees. There is no respite of heat waves for the wild animals. With each passing day wild animals, including elephants and tigers in the Reserves and Wildlife Sanctuaries, are facing a shortage of water. The water crisis in many part of the state in this summer summer has been driving animals out of their habitat to quench their thirst but non-availability of waters has hit the daily life of wild animals and most of aged elephants and big cats have reportedly been suffering a lot. Meanwhile, Satkosia Tiger Reserve region, rich in bio-diversity, has been in the grip of gnawing fire for several weeks. Both flora and fauna are in a state of peril.

ISRAEL - The Israel Nature & National Parks Protection Authority is warning those traveling not to go hiking in the Judaean Desert or in the western Negev because of severe heat conditions. Due to the serious heat wave, rescue units and fire fighting units are on higher levels of readiness.

Scientists widely accept that greenhouse gases are changing the climate, and in Kansas they are already seeing some of the effects of higher temperatures and less water. The shrinking water supply will make it harder to grow corn. “Nebraska won’t be the Cornhuskers anymore. It will be the South Dakota Cornhuskers.” Disappearing surface water will make it harder for trees like sugar maples and bur oaks to survive, and birds like the red-headed woodpecker that rely on them may also disappear. The changes will make seasons unpredictable, disrupting the natural life cycles of honeybees and the flowers and fruits they pollinate. Each change will make life more difficult for humans, raising the prices of food and eliminating the state’s biodiversity. The climate change Kansas is experiencing now was similar to what happened during the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. “Now we’re facing what is THE WORST PERIOD OF KANSAS HISTORY. It’s not a matter of belief. It’s a matter of scientific research.” Some food production would move north toward Canada as surface water disappeared in the west and water for irrigation was depleted. Some land could go out of production within 20 years. Wheat is the largest cash crop in Kansas, valued at $1.3 billion in 2006. With higher nighttime temperatures, some wheat will not be able to heal from extreme heat during the day and may die. Water is disappearing from the Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies water for irrigation to western Kansas and seven other states, and wells will become more expensive each foot deeper they must be dug to reach the water. Some farmers have already dug their wells 100 feet deeper than they used to and they get only half the water. Bees and other insects have a difficult time adjusting to unpredictable seasons. In Lawrence, plants were usually at full bloom on April 14. Last year, that day was April 2, a full 12 days early. This year, flowers reached full bloom seven days later than the norm. Normally, the bloom days vary only by three or four days. (long article, lots more info)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Extensive Indonesian Bird Flu Crisis Drill - A major drill initiative is taking place in Indonesia, as authorities have prepared a three-day bird flu crisis exercise. The simulation is the biggest one attempted by the country and involves about 5,000 people, from police officers and military personnel to local residents, doctors and government officials. Indonesia has the worst bird flu records in recent years, with 107 flu-related deaths out of the global 240 recorded fatalities. The country is also considered a “hot spot” for the virus, and one of the main fears refers to the mutation of the virus and the potential significant damage it could inflict on humans.

FOOD / WATER-
Rising food prices have developed into a global crisis - Concerns about food security mounted this week as rice prices hit records in Asia and the United States warned that staples for the world's hungry were getting much more expensive. The cost of feeding the world's hungry has jumped nearly 40% amid spiralling food costs and oil prices. Anger over high food and fuel costs in recent months has sparked protests in several countries. Governments of several food-growing countries, worried about domestic shortages, have imposed export curbs, spooking markets at a time when world inventories are down sharply. "The United Nations is very much concerned as all members of the international community (are)." The international community needs to take immediate action and world leaders should discuss ways to improve food distribution systems and production.

Increased food and petrol prices, and rising interest rates, are creating a new class of "white collar battlers", welfare groups warn. The Salvation Army in Australia has seen a 58% rise in crisis clients in the past six months, many of whom don't fit the usual profile of those in need. "Now WE HAVE A WHOLE NEW CLASS WHO ARE SIMPLY NOT COPING. First-home buyers who have bought into their dream and woken up to a very harsh reality. Young families, people with secure employment who find their costs exceed their income." The number of those seeking help had grown so sharply the charity was having to turn some people away. Financial pressures are pushing some white collar workers to the brink. "We're seeing different people who are really struggling, people who have white collar jobs, people with full-time jobs. It is really concerning."

Thursday, April 24, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Better than a thousand hollow words, is one word that brings peace.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/23/08 -
5.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.8 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Elevated levels of sulfur dioxide pouring from Kilauea volcano Wednesday forced the evacuation of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park for the second time this month. About 2,000 people were forced to leave the park when a lack of wind kept the noxious gas from Halemaumau Crater lingering over the Big Island volcano. The plume from the volcano's main crater was lingering over the area rather than getting blown away by trade winds the way it had been earlier in the week.

ECUADOR - The Tungurahua volcano has seen significant activity in 2008, erupting on February 6th and causing mudslides, heavy ash falls and evacuations. Since then activity has decreased. However, ash and steam plumes and Stombolian activity at the summit and lahars travelling 600m down the flanks of the mountain have been reported this week. The FCO continues to advise against all but essential travel to within six miles of the mountain. Reventador in Napo province; Sangay between Chimborazo and Morona Santiago; and Cotopaxi are other closely monitored volcanoes considered active in Ecuador. Sangay and Reventador have both showed increased seismic activity over the past year.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone DURGA was 940 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia.
Cyclone ROSIE was 935 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
British butterflies 'need good summer' - Butterflies need a warm summer in order to help numbers recover from last year's washout, say conservationists. Eight species are AT AN ALL-TIME LOW as a result of an unsuccessful summer in 2007. The main reason behind the decline was an above average rainfall, which meant the insects, such as the common blue, had fewer chances to feed or breed. Early forecasts suggest this summer could be wetter than average. But forecasters said the risk of exceptional downpours on the same scale as last year is very low.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - Western Washington was hit with RECORD LOW temperatures and unseasonable lowland snowfall this past weekend. Maximum and minimum daily temperatures have been less than normal since April 1, and snowfall has been seen on at least two occasions in the past week. Cold temperatures have not been restricted to Western Washington. On the morning of April 21, the temperature in Great Falls, Montana, dropped to minus 8 degrees F, BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW temperature by 19 degrees. “To have set a record in that fashion this late in the month is REALLY EXTRAORDINARY." Scientists pointed to two main factors influencing the UNUSUAL weather: cooler than normal surface ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and the persistence of low pressure along the Pacific coast of North America. “The whole Northern Hemisphere has been cold. We’re really seeing the influence of the STRONGEST LA NINA SINCE 1998 and a persistent trough of low pressure over the Northwest.” People’s perceptions of 2008 as unusually cool and wet are somewhat inaccurate. Despite fallen records and lowland snow in late April, this year’s temperatures and precipitation statewide remain close to normal. “March in Seattle was 1.6 degrees F cooler than average, but still only the 18th coolest out of 65. What was UNUSUAL was the number, and certainly lateness, of the events favoring lowland snow.” The forecast for Western Washington features more of the same in the short-term, but there are signs of milder weather on the horizon.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

RUSSIA - More than 500 wildfires erupted in three Russian regions over 24 hours on Tuesday. A total of 819 wildfires have been registered, 579 of them were extinguished, 240 wildfires continue covering a total area of 18,142 hectares. In particular, there are currently 16 large wildfires in Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories. "There is no threat to populated areas, oil and gas pipelines, potentially hazardous and other industrial facilities, nor is there any danger of wildfires crossing the Russian national border."

ARCTIC sea ice is melting "significantly faster" than predicted and is approaching a point of no return, warns a new study released today. The volumes of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice in the Arctic Ocean were estimated at 2.9 million and 4.4 million cubic metres respectively in September 2007 - the LOWEST LEVELS EVER RECORDED. The sea ice shrank to 39 per cent below its 1979-2000 mean volume. The melting of arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet was happening so fast that experts were now questioning whether the situation is close to "tipping point," where sudden and possibly irreversible change takes place. "Our understanding of climate impacts lags behind the changes that we are already seeing in the Arctic."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
RICE - The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart, is restricting sales of rice at one of its chains - the latest sign of a global shortage of the staple food. Sam's Club, Wal-Mart's cash-and-carry division, says customers can buy a maximum of four bags per visit. The limit applies to jasmine, basmati and long grain white rice. The international price of rice has risen by 68% this year and Wal-Mart said the restrictions were "due to recent supply and demand trends". Wal-Mart said it was not restricting the amounts of flour or oil customers can purchase "at this time". The prices of soybeans, corn and wheat have also soared and are currently near their all-time peaks. [SITE NOTE - There are conflicting reports as to whether there is actually a world-wide shortage or whether supplies are being stock-piled, increasing the prices and profits for suppliers and commodity traders. At any rate, all that is needed is a PERCEPTION that there is a shortage for people to rush to stock-pile food and thereby create a larger shortage and drive prices even higher. Get it while you can?? It may be wise for each of us to start our own small gardens in any case.]

The end of cheap clothes is near - Food prices have shot up in response to a surge in crop prices. Now consumers should get ready for clothes prices to follow suit. Garment makers are seeing demand shrink as consumers in the US and Europe are cutting back on spending. US cotton consumption is set to fall 6.5% from last year whilst EU consumption is expected to fall 11%. At the same time, factories are hit by more expensive raw materials and by soaring oil prices, which make their factories more expensive to operate and which pushes up the cost of shipping to foreign markets. In India, the weaving industry is in crisis. In China, the textile sector is squeezed. And, yet again, the root cause of their problems can be found in America. In the US, ever more cotton farmers are switching to more lucrative crops - soybeans, corn, and wheat - whose market prices are rising even faster. As a result of the shift by farmers, "the cotton harvested area in the USA is projected to decline by a further 15%" in the year ahead. This year, global cotton prices are set to rise more than 8%, ICAC predicts. Financial market professionals think the rise could be even steeper. "I don't think we've had markets this wild since 1995, and we're in an environment where it could be with us for several years." Costly cotton is only one factor hitting clothing manufacturers. "It all comes down to energy. We are basically short of power in the world right now." Hence, it is not only a question of whether land should be used to grow crops for food or cotton. It is also a question of how much energy should be used to produce clothes in factories. Fertiliser costs are also soaring, adding to raw material costs, and the credit crunch is adding to the squeeze as low-margin clothes manufacturers are finding it harder to raise finance. In the end, they will either have to raise prices for the clothes they make, or go under - which in turn will reduce supply. For consumers in Europe and the US the outcome is certain: prepare to pay more for clothes in the years to come.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Success is going from one failure to the next without a loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill [apparently this is also our Iraq policy]

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/22/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS

INDIANA - At least 23 earthquakes have shaken the Tri-State during the past four days, including the magnitude 5.2 shocker Friday and a 4.0 aftershock early Monday that was one of the strongest yet. Monday’s aftershock was in the same area as Friday’s quake, which itself was followed by a magnitude 4.6 aftershock 5½ hours later, along with a spate of smaller quakes throughout the weekend. “I’m concerned about it. It’s the noise that worries me. The noise is just unbelievable. It’s like a freight train coming through the house. I am tired of it. I’m ready to get a good night’s rest without having to worry about the earthquake alarm instead of the alarm clock.” The quake originated in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone, a series of faults straddling the Wabash River in Illinois and Indiana. The Wabash Valley system has been more active in producing greater-magnitude quakes in the last 40 years compared with the New Madrid, which lies just south of the Tri-State along the Mississippi River Valley. Although the New Madrid has produced catastrophic 7.0 or stronger quakes, such devastating quakes haven’t occurred in the Wabash Valley since prehistoric times. As a result, many seismologists believe activity in the New Madrid zone is waning. “All the activity since 1968 that people have felt, it is all due to the Wabash Valley." But research has continued to be directed at the New Madrid instead of the Wabash Valley.
ILLINOIS - Earthquake a possible cause of water main breaks - Tuesday marked five days and counting for a boil order affecting 1,400 Coal Valley water customers. A main broke in Crab Orchard early Friday morning, and they think the earthquake soon after that made the problem worse. "This would've drained our whole system in just a short period of time if a customer hadn't called about the pressure." The earthquake that followed likely took a further toll on the area's old infrastructure, because since Friday..."We've tracked down about four different leaks." Though the transition from winter to spring always brings some leaks, it's never been like this. "We've got more problems now than we've ever had." "I think we'll find a few more. It's just a matter of getting time to run them down."

CALIFORNIA - A series of earthquakes - the first and largest measuring magnitude 3.7 - rocked the Eureka area Monday afternoon, causing some surprise but no reports of damage. The initial jolt occurred at 3 p.m., just 2 miles west of Eureka at a depth of 13 miles. The second magnitude 2.9 occurred at the same depth exactly 16 minutes later, 7 miles west of Eureka. Over nearly three hours, a total of four earthquakes were recorded near Eureka - the 3.7 followed by two 2.9s and a 2.1. One magnitude 2.8 hit off the coast of Petrolia. The 3.7 quake occurred in the Gorda Plate, which lies 7 to 8 miles below the surface of the North American plate that Eureka sits on. The Gorda Plate is filled with faults and is subject to enormous geological forces. It is essentially in a vice between the Juan de Fuca Plate to the north and the Pacific Plate to the south. ”Basically, the Gorda Plate is stuck between a rock and a hard place.” The Gorda Plate has produced big earthquakes in the past. It produced the 7.2-magnitude quake that was part of a series of quakes in 1992 that shook homes off foundations in Ferndale and caused a fire that burned down the Scotia shopping center. It also produced a strong quake in 1932 that did significant damage.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Shiveluch Volcano is erupting in Kamchatka. It may become dangerous for aircraft to fly near the Volcano due to ash emissions. Shiveluch explosive activity may increase at any time and it will be accompanied by emissions of gas and ash about ten kilometers high. The ash may fall on the nearby settlements. The eruption will continue for a week. The Karymskiy Volcano may also emit ash that will probably rise up to six kilometers above sea level. It may become dangerous for local aircraft to fly near the Volcano. (The Ministry of Emergency of the Kamchatka Territory is also forecasting a magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 earthquake in the south of Kamchatka before the end of 2008.)

INDONESIA has raised the alert level for two volcanoes in the Sunda Strait and Mollucas island chain to the second highest following increased volcanic activities. The alert status for Anak Krakatau (a volcano which formed in the Sunda Strait after the legendary explosion of Mount Krakatau in 1883) and Ibu volcano on Halmahera island in the Mollucas was raised on Monday after rumbling to life about a week ago. "Anak Krakatau's explosions are strong, so we urge people not to get close to it as it is throwing out flaming rocks." Scientists monitoring Anak Krakatau said the volcano was not especially dangerous and was likely to continue to rumble for some time. The alert for Anak Krakatau will not be raised to the highest because nobody lives close to the mountain, which lies near Java island. Anak Krakatau roared to life last November when it blasted massive clouds of smoke and flaming red rocks hundreds of metres into the sky. The ashes from Ibu volcano had reached as high as 700 metres (2,297 ft), but had not disturbed flights. In the past two years, at least two other volcanoes in Indonesia - Mount Merapi and Kelud - have shown signs of activity, but they are quiet now.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 29S was 927 nmi SSW of George Town, Malaysia.
Cyclone ROSIE was 988 nmi S of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.

Oppressive heat wave conditions manifested themselves across the Indian landmass even as two tropical cyclones reared their heads from within the fertile Inter Tropical Convergence Zone straddling the equator. On Tuesday, these cyclones hovered off the Australian and the Indonesian coasts causing large chunks of the moisture packing the ITCZ, the global band of low pressure area, to get redirected. This may temporarily affect the normal wind flow pattern when the ITCZ moves north of the equator relative to the Sun’s position and goes to prop up what, in a month’s time, may transpire as the year 2008’s Indian monsoon. As if this was not enough, there is a third cyclonic storm threatening to spin out from the ITCZ to the south of the Bay of Bengal and has been forecast to move in a north-northeast direction to the Thailand-Myanmar coasts. The landfall is likely to be around April 29.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney's run of rainy days in a row - 11 - is THE MOST IN APRIL FOR 77 YEARS. The run of consecutive rainy days began on April 14 and there have been 15 rainy days in total so far this month. Sydney has received 134mm of rain so far this month, tipping the total past the average April monthly average of 130mm. "The longest spell of continuous rainy days in April was 24 days from April 7 to 30 in 1893."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Forget global warming, prepare for Ice Age? - Sunspot activity has not resumed after hitting an 11-year low in March last year, raising fears that - far from warming - the globe is about to return to an Ice Age. An astronaut and geophysicist says the world cooled quickly between January last year and January this year, by about 0.7C. "This is THE FASTEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD, and it puts us back to where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over...My guess is that the odds are now at least 50:50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades." The Bureau of Meteorology says temperatures in Australia have been warmer than the 1960-90 average since the late 1970s, barring a couple of cooler years, and are now 0.3C higher than the long-term average. Some scientists believe a strong solar magnetic field, when there is plenty of sunspot activity, protects the earth from cosmic rays, cutting cloud formation, but that when the field is weak - during low sunspot activity - the rays can penetrate into the lower atmosphere and cloud cover increases, cooling the surface. But scientists from the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Bolder, Colorado published a report in 2006 that showed the sun had a negligible effect on climate change. The researchers wrote that the sun's brightness varied by only 0.07per cent over 11-year sunspot cycles, and that that was far too little to account for the rise in temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.

AUSTRIA - A large avalanche has buried a street near a popular Austrian ski resort under four metres of snow, with authorities warning of a "substantial" risk that more may follow. Rescue workers searching the road in Imst, in the province of Tyrol, do not believe anyone was buried in the avalanche. Authorities said heavy rainfall across the region in the hours before the avalanche may have triggered the slide. Austria's avalanche monitoring agency today warned that the risk of snow slides above 1,800m was "substantial". The alert level has been raised to three on a five-point scale. Dozens of avalanches occur in Austria each year, often in spring, when thawing snow and ice makes slopes unstable. Many slides prove fatal. In January, five people were killed on a single weekend. Last year, 102 fatal avalanches were recorded across the Alps. (map)

AFGHANISTAN - Freak winter weather linked to global warming is expected to decimate parts of the country's opium harvest. The fierce cold – which claimed hundreds of lives across Afghanistan – is thought to have stopped millions of poppy seeds from germinating, while late rains and a meagre snow melt following an unusually low snowfall have stunted many of the plants that survived. Some farmers could suffer up to 50 per cent losses. Poppy is a winter crop. It is normally planted before the frosts and the seeds germinate before the cold weather. They sit dormant through the winter, then shoot up in the spring. Poppy is more resistant to drought than food crops, but a water shortage at a key stage in the plant's life cycle is expected to stunt the size of the seed pods. Afghanistan's dry climate is especially susceptible to climate change. This winter was so cold there was less snow than usual. Most of the country's rivers are fed by meltwater from the Hindu Kush mountain range. Meanwhile, the spring rains, which usually come in late February, arrived in April, long after the poppy seedlings started a key growth spurt. The drop in poppy yields is unlikely to affect heroin supply on Britain's streets. Experts estimate there is at least seven years' supply in transit from the fields to the users.

CALIFORNIA - Sacramento Valley farmers are calculating the damage from the UNUSUALLY cold spring weather. Freezing temperatures this weekend destroyed peaches that were just beginning to bud. Sutter County farmers are reporting losses in walnuts, canning tomatoes and tree fruits. Yuba County prune orchards lost between 10 percent and all of their fruit. Pear farmers reported 30 percent of their fruit destroyed. The full extent of crop losses may not be known until harvests begin this summer.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Orissa on Monday declared an early summer vacation for schools due to an UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE in the state that has reportedly caused death of at least 22 people. "Usually the summer vacation starts from May every year but we have asked the school authorities to declare it early this year because temperature has crossed 40 degrees Celsius in many parts of the state.”

NORTH DAKOTA - The past six months have been THE DRIEST ON RECORD in North Dakota, with the parched western part of the state suffering the most. Through Monday, the statewide average precipitation for the past 180 days was only 1.59 inches, or 38 percent of normal, and the driest since record keeping began 113 years ago. Fifty-five percent of the state is listed as having extreme drought, and 22 percent is in the severe drought category. No areas in the state are listed in the exceptional category, the worst of the rankings. "It's so dusty out west, that there is concern among cattle farmers that pneumonia may be an issue for cattle. Livestock farmers are thinking about buying hay, moving cattle, hauling water, or moving their cattle out of the state." Besides North Dakota, the other parts of the country experiencing extreme drought are western Nebraska, southwestern Texas, and parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The extreme southwest part of Texas is the only area in the nation listed as having exceptional drought on the federal drought map.

The shrinking expanse of Arctic sea ice is increasingly vulnerable to summer sunshine. New research finds that unusually sunny weather contributed to last summer’s record loss of Arctic ice, while similar weather conditions in past summers did not have comparable impacts. "In a warmer world, the thinner sea ice is becoming increasingly sensitive to year-to-year variations in weather and cloud patterns. A single unusually clear summer can now have a dramatic impact." Summer sunshine produces more pronounced melting than in the past, largely because there is now less ice to reflect solar radiation back into space. As a result, the presence or absence of clouds now has greater implications for sea ice loss. Last summer's loss of Arctic sea ice set a modern-day record, with the ice extent shrinking to a minimum of about 1.6 million square miles (4.1 million square kilometers) in September. That was 43% less ice coverage than in 1979, when accurate satellite observations began. In addition to solar radiation, other factors such as changes in wind patterns and possibly shifts in ocean circulation patterns also influence sea ice loss. In particular, strong winds along regions of sea ice retreat were important to last year's loss of ice.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles.
Then the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you.


QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/21/08 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA

ILLINOIS - A 4.5 magnitude aftershock shook the surrounding area again early Monday morning, just days after the 5.2 magnitude earthquake based in Illinois. Monday's aftershock is the second large-scale rumbling since Friday morning's earthquake, but there officially have been more than a dozen. Monday's shaking did not last as long as Friday's earthquake or the aftershock that hit a few hours after. There were no reports of injuries or damage. Monday's aftershock was centered near Mount Carmel, Illinois. That is very close to where Friday's movement was on the Illinois-Indiana state line. (map)

U.S. - Earthquakes remain a serious threat in 46 of the United States. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have released an updated version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. For some areas, such as western Oregon and Washington, the new maps contain higher estimates for how hard the ground will shake compared to earlier versions of the maps released in 1996 and 2002. But for most of the United States, the ground shaking estimates are lower.
The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
In the Himalayas, warming could spur a ‘tsunami from the sky’ - Rising temperatures have resulted in dangerously high water levels in a lake above a valley in central Bhutan. No one knows how long it can hold. The lake is swollen dangerously past normal levels, thanks to the global warming that is causing the glaciers to retreat at record speed. But no one knows when the tipping point will come and the lake can take no more, bursting its banks and sending torrents of water crashing into the valley below. Such floods from above have hit Punakha before, most recently in 1994, a calamity that killed about two dozen people and wiped out livelihoods and homes without warning. But scientists say a new flood could unleash more than twice as much water and be far more catastrophic. Because of Earth’s rising temperatures, at least 25 glacial lakes in Bhutan are at risk of overflowing and dumping their contents into the narrow valleys where much of the country’s population lives. The bitter irony here is that Bhutan probably has done more to safeguard its environment than almost any other country. Sustainable development is the official mantra. By law, the country’s forest cover must never drop below 60 percent. National parks and wildlife reserves account for one-quarter of Bhutan’s territory. A sanctuary in the east is famous as the only one in the world set aside for the yeti - or “migoi” - the mythical Abominable Snowman. Some shifting weather patterns already are being felt. “The winters are not so cold. The hot season is arriving much earlier. Even fruit trees that would not fruit in Thimphu, that people just planted as ornamental flowers, are now starting to fruit.” Less benign are diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, common in the lower-lying, warmer south, which now are appearing at higher altitudes. Officials are also worried that any changes to Bhutan’s monsoon season could deal a major blow to agriculture. Experts estimate that Bhutan’s glaciers are retreating by as much as 100 feet annually. “In the short run, we’ll have increased summer flows, but after 40 years, it’ll dry up.” Fed by a melting glacier the Thorthormi lake has bulked up to alarming size and is in danger of swamping another body of water, the Raphstreng. In a nightmare scenario, the two lakes could merge, punch through the natural but unstable moraine dams holding them back and go cascading into the valley, picking up debris as they thunder downhill.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 28S was 921 nmi S of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.

A cyclone watch has been issued for Christmas Island as a tropical low heads towards the Indian Ocean outcrop. At 5.45am today the Bureau of Meteorology said a developing tropical low was 160km north west of Christmas Island and 850km east of Cocos Islands, moving east southeast at 25kmh. The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the day with periods of heavy rain possible. Gales with gusts to 100kmh may develop at Christmas Island during the day. Tides will be higher than expected with large swell likely to develop later today or tomorrow. (satellite photo)

HONG KONG - At least 50 flights out of Hong Kong were delayed on Sunday as tropical storm Neoguri caused a weekend of travel chaos in the former British colony. A huge backlog of flights was being dealt with Sunday after the delay of 100 cancelled flights on Saturday when heavy rains and high winds whipped the city of 6.9 million as Neoguri passed by. Hong Kong raised ITS EARLIEST TYPHOON ALERT FOR MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY as localised flooding incidents were reported across the city when the storm hit southern China Saturday evening. Neoguri, which began as a typhoon, was downgraded to the status of tropical depression Sunday as it weakened during its passage over southern China.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - Sandstorms and plunging temperatures brought by a severe cold snap in northwest China have damaged crops, killed livestock and affected five million people. Freezing weather since Thursday in northwestern Xinjiang had "wreaked havoc", causing an economic loss of about 5 billion yuan ($714 million). The disaster affected 473,733 hectares of crops, or 69% of the total in the region, and 411,466 hectares of fruit trees." About 103,500 livestock were killed, and another 3.25 million "injured or lost." The cold snap coincided with the early arrival of China's typhoon season. Typhoon Neoguri slammed into China's southern island province of Hainan at the weekend, causing power cuts and leaving 18 fishermen missing.

SOUTH AFRICA - Two men have died apparently as a result of UNUSUAL freezing weather in South Africa's Eastern Cape province. "The bodies of the two men, aged 30 and 50, were found on the side of the road yesterday (Sunday) morning in Sigubudwinini locality in Mthatha. We suspect they died because of the very cold weather." South Africa's weather service issued a warning on Monday of "widespread severe frost" in seven provinces. Thirteen people died in the Eastern Cape from the cold weather last year. Temperatures in Johannesburg, South Africa's biggest city, went down to two degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday. Colder temperatures were registered in upland areas.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

"The reality is that people are dying already." Food riots in several poor nations during the past month have UN and other officials arguing that the growing diversion of grain harvest from food to ethanol fuel is causing a global food crisis. Global food prices have jumped 83% over the past three years as the world's main agricultural producers shifted their focus to biofuels. India's Finance Minister has called on industrial nations to cut off all subsidies for such alternative energy production, and to focus on providing food to the developing world. A growing number of government ministers have labeled the impact of biofuels as a "crisis of humanity." UN statistics say that the amount of corn it takes to produce 40 litres of ethanol can feed a child for an entire year.
According to the World Food Program, at least 850 million people are desperately hungry. "The world's misery index is rising. (It is) a silent tsunami that respects no borders - most don't know what hit them." For weeks, tens of thousands of hungry people have been lining up for U.N. food handouts all around the world, from Latin America to Africa and Asia. For most people in the West, who spend about 10 percent of their income on food, the increasing prices are just an inconvenience. But in poor countries people spend 80 percent of their money to feed themselves. This kind of desperation in much of the world could threaten the United States, terrorism experts say. "Anti-American groups such as al Qaeda will be able to mobilize marginalized, frustrated populations that are especially affected by the food crisis." The food price crisis has been made even worse by private traders who are hoarding huge stockpiles of food because the price keeps going higher. The perfect storm is continuing to grow.

INDIA - Peacocks abandoning habitat near Pune - Residents of Morachi Chincholi Village near Pune are deeply upset since the peafowl, who are viewed as part of the family by them, have started deserting their village following an acute water shortage. Morachi Chincholi Village, located just 65 kilometers from Pune city, had a scanty rainfall this year and is presently facing water shortage. The village has been known as a natural habitat for the Indian National bird. It is believed this village is home to over 2,000 magnificent winged beauties. The villagers have pleaded with the government to convert the village into a tourist destination to preserve and save these avian beauties. “They have been here for 50 years now, but due to the acute water shortage these peacocks are leaving."

BRITAIN - Climate change threat to Kent's birds - For years, the mass of wintering birds at Kent’s RSPB marshes have attracted thousands of visitors during the colder months. But now the effects of climate change are causing bird numbers to plummet rapidly and are putting the marshes at risk of becoming miserably barren. Flocks of wintering water fowl and other species from the arctic region are noticeable by their absence at marshes in North Kent and Dungeness, as mild winters across the continent mean migrating birds do not need to travel as far as the UK’s south east for the climate they need. On top of this, the results of the Big Garden Watch in January showed that the average number of birds seen in people’s gardens has declined by a fifth since 2004.

Climate change is upon us, and it has arrived well ahead of schedule. Scientists’ projections that seemed dire a decade ago turn out to have been unduly optimistic: the warming and the melting is occurring much faster than the models predicted. Now truly terrifying feedback loops threaten to boost the rate of change exponentially, as the shift from white ice to blue water in the Arctic absorbs more sunlight and warming soils everywhere become more biologically active, causing them to release their vast stores of carbon into the air...The climate-change crisis is at its very bottom a crisis of lifestyle - of character, even. The Big Problem is nothing more or less than the sum total of countless little everyday choices...“Once our personal connection to what is wrong becomes clear, then we have to choose: we can go on as before, recognizing our dishonesty and living with it the best we can, or we can begin the effort to change the way we think and live.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Monday, April 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There's one great advantage to living to 105 - no peer pressure.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/20/08 -
5.6 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.2 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
5.1 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MEDITERRANEAN - The week-long search for a Briton who disappeared off a new luxury yacht in the Mediterranean has been called off. He was a technician from the shipyard that built the vessel. He was helping the owner take the boat from France to the Costa Brava resort of Estartit. A major air and sea search was launched when the yacht failed to arrive. Last week the owner's body was found floating off the Spanish coast and the £680,000 yacht was later found drifting off the island of Menorca. Smashed windows and other damage indicate the it had been hit by a FREAK WAVE and police think both men were knocked overboard. The yacht then continued on auto-pilot until it ran out of fuel.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

CHINA - Three persons were killed due to strong winds and mud flow triggered by typhoon Neoguri in South China's Guangdong province. Two persons died when mud flow buried a section of road under construction in Shenzen city, while another was fatally hit by an aluminium sheet blown-off a stadium by strong gales in Zhuhai city. In Yangjiang city, Neoguri's landing point, about 274,000 people were affected and 7,000 hectares of farmland inundated.
In Macau, at 1.30pm the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau raised the warning signal from 3 to 8, which prompted a surge of phone calls which appeared to temporarily bring down the mobile phone network. Coming two months before the official start of the season, it was the EARLIEST TYPHOON WARNING THE BUREAU HAD ISSUED IN AT LEAST 40 YEARS. Cranes swayed, trees were uprooted and scaffolding damaged in the following five hours of gale force winds which reached up to 109 kilometres an hour. Waters rose and waves battered the coast while the bridges connecting Taipa with the peninsula were closed at 3pm. The La Niña effect was blamed for the early typhoon and history shows the periodic cooling of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific is likely to bring about more typhoons in the coming months.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Massive mudslide traps 200 in Three Gorges area - Emergency workers are trying to rescue almost 200 people from a village that was almost inundated by a massive landslide in central China on Saturday. Continuous rain triggered a landslide of 60,000 cubic meters of mud, which swept into a schoolyard and a village of 37 homes at the Three Gorges Dam area in Hubei Province on Saturday afternoon. The rain had washed away 20,000 cubic meters of the mud in Xiaohe Village of Gaoyang Township. The mud flow still threatens to inundate a school building and the homes of 179 people in the village. Rainstorms have slammed the geographically vulnerable reservoir area since Friday. Up to 106 millimeters of rain have fallen so far. Weather forecasters say the rain would continue in coming days, which would continue to swell exuding underground water at the landslide site. The disaster relief staff expect that the landslide area will worsen due to the bad weather. Gaoyang is to be the last town to be relocated to make way for the raising of the reservoir level to 175 meters in 2009 from the current level of 156 meters. A total of 2,000 villagers are expected to be relocated.

OHIO - More about Bellevue, the Ohio town enduring a four-week flood - Dozens of homeowners have been draining their basements around the clock for four straight weeks. Others have given up because the water just keeps flowing. What's unusual is where the water is coming from — it's seeping up from the ground through cracks in the limestone buried beneath this northern Ohio town. A mix of heavy rains and melting snow in recent months has left the ground saturated and the water has nowhere to go but up. It has buckled concrete basement floors, cracked foundations and closed several streets and roads, including a busy state highway. How much all of the repairs will cost isn't known yet. Much of the damage is centered on the north and east sides of the city and its surrounding townships. But most of the city is completely dry. (photo)

CANADA - Civil Security officials are predicting serious spring flooding in many municipalities within the next week. They are warning people living on the north shore of the west island, Laval, and some municipalities to the west of the city of Montreal, that they could be experiencing full-fledged flooding by next Tuesday. That's all due to the unseasonably warm temperatures they've been experiencing over the past few days, and the rapidly rising water levels.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - On Saturday, snow fell throughout Western Washington. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport was 1 degree short of breaking its record low of 34 degrees. Snow HAS NOT FALLEN THIS LATE IN THE YEAR SINCE APRIL 1972. The unseasonably cold weather of the past few days has spelled disaster for some of the ornamental cherry trees around Seattle. Their vibrant, cotton-candy-pink blossoms have been replaced by a brownish goo on the sidewalks below. In Wenatchee Valley, cherry farmers are worried about the unusually cold weather, too. "It's too early to tell how much damage the cold weather has done."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Intense heat wave conditions killed 10 people in Orissa as the temperatures crossed the 42 degrees Celsius mark in the state.

PENNSYLVANIA - Erie capped off a week of sunny weather with a RECORD TEMPERATURE of 84 degrees. It beat the old record of 83 degrees, set in 1941.
NEW YORK - Saturday's 87-degree heat BROKE THE OLD RECORD of 80 degrees set in 1977 in Buffalo. They've had a total of 1.53 inches of rain so far this month, which is below normal, and the bulk of that fell on just two days - April 4 and April 11.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, April 20, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The law is hard on the man
Who steals the goose from off the land,
But leaves the greater felon loose
That steals the land from the goose.
Old English rhyme

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/19/08 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.2 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.9 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 EAST TIMOR REGION
6.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI REGION
4/18/08 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
6.4 FIJI REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 ILLINOIS

The 5.4 earthquake that started out in eastern Illinois was felt by residents in southern Ontario early Friday morning. “For us it’s a fairly large event.” In southern Ontario, particularly in the Kitchener area, residents felt shaking for several seconds, which is significant considering the quake originated in an area which is several hundred kilometres from southern Ontario.
The last major earthquake to hit Illinois (6/10/1987) had an epicenter close to Friday's. "It's amazing how on schedule this is. We have earthquakes there every 20 years." The biggest earthquake to hit Illinois in the last century was a a 5.5 earthquake near Broughton on Nov. 9, 1968. Scientists are not sure what causes the quakes in that area, but there are old faults in the earth's crust in that zone. The relationship between these new quakes and those old faults is not clear. "It's almost like there is a weakness in the earth's crust, in the Wabash Valley zone. It's like an old scar being torn off." The New Madrid Zone further south in Illinois produces very powerful quakes, but it is not clear if there's any connection between the New Madrid zone and the Wabash Valley zone. There have been more than 160 earthquakes in Illinois since records began in 1795, 80% of them in the southern half of the state.
ILLINOIS - June 10, 1987 - A strong 5.0 earthquake rattled through Iowa and 14 other states from Missouri to South Carolina and parts of Canada at 6:49 p.m. CDT, shaking skyscrapers in Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit and causing minor damage and at least one minor injury. The tremor, centered near Lawrenceville, Illinois, 55 miles north of Evansville, Indiana, triggered alarms at a nuclear plant in Minnesota, caved in a roof and cut telephone service in Illinois, and shook patients in hospital beds in Iowa and West Virginia.

CALIFORNIA - Around 350 people showed up Friday morning to commemorate the great earthquake of 1906, which happened at 5:12 a.m. 102 years ago. (photo)

INDONESIA - An undersea earthquake rocked East Timor's coastal capital Saturday, shaking buildings and sending screaming residents running into the streets. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage from the magnitude 6.4 tremor.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
OREGON - In order to prepare for the next big tsunami, Seaside City Councilors on Monday unanimously approved the purchase of 120 cache barrels that will be used to store food on higher ground in case of emergency. The 55-gallon barrels will be placed in people’s homes in the city’s five tsunami evacuation zones in the city. “We had a taste test of the food, and although none of it is spectacularly tasty, we got the best.”

NEW ZEALAND - A freak wave in Rotorua has lifted and wrecked a road, destroyed a 1.8m high fence, churned cobblestones out of driveways and shunted a car into a garage wall. The 2m wall of water swept down an Otonga hillside Tuesday as Rotorua was swamped with 111mm of rain in 24 hours - close to the 115mm average for the entire month of April. In 24 years, residents said they hadn't seen anything like it. "Never before." The deluge caused several floods. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm NEOGURI was 72 nmi W of Hong Kong.

Typhoon Neoguri swept through Macau in the afternoon on Saturday, after it struck Hainan island south of mainland China the night before, forcing flight cancellations and the evacuation of 210,000 people. Macau closed its three cross-sea bridges linking the Macau peninsula to a neighbouring island. No casualties have been reported, and by the time the typhoon hit Hainan, packing winds of 108km/h, it had weakened to a severe tropical storm. The storm affected 1.3 million people in Hainan, or one in six of the island's population. In addition, 550 houses had been damaged, and the direct financial losses came to 337 million yuan ($51.25 million). Authorities in Hainan said a rescue ship had found 38 fishermen who swam to a reef area after their three boats were damaged. Another 18 fishermen remain missing.

The jet stream — America's stormy weather maker — is creeping northward and weakening, new research shows. That potentially means less rain in the already dry South and Southwest and more storms in the North. And it could also translate into more and stronger hurricanes since the jet stream suppresses their formation. The study's authors said they have to do more research to pinpoint specific consequences. From 1979 to 2001, the Northern Hemisphere's jet stream moved northward on average at a rate of about 1.25 miles a year. The authors suspect global warming is the cause, but have yet to prove it. Two other jet streams in the Southern Hemisphere are also shifting poleward. The study's authors and other scientists suggest that the widening of the Earth's tropical belt — a development documented last year — is pushing the three jet streams toward the poles.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OHIO - Bizarre flooding continues - Beautiful weather, no river, no stream and yet hundreds of residents are flooded in Bellevue. No sudden thunderstorms or drenching rains can explain it. For some reason, the earth in Bellevue continues to heave up millions of gallons of water to the surface. Against gravity and against logic, the flooding continues day after day. Homes and barns suddenly turned into islands trapped in muddy water. No one knows why it began or when it will end. It is a disaster for every homeowner for miles around Bellevue. The residents north of town on state route 269 have especially been hit hard. Neighbors have volunteered the use of heavy equipment to try and dig a channel in the backyard fields that have become muddy lakes. So far, nothing has worked. Because there are no lakes, rivers or streams nearby, none of the residents have flood insurance. Scientists believe that the cause is underground artesian springs in the area that normally drain toward Sandusky Bay and Lake Erie. There are large artesian springs at Miller's Pond, Green Spring, and Castalia, Ohio. (photo & video)

GERMANY - German island's 'white cliffs' collapsing into the sea - The towering chalk cliffs that form the spectacular coastline of the Baltic holiday island of Rügen are Germany's equivalent of the white cliffs of Dover – but now they are collapsing into the sea due to heavy rain. Officials on Germany's largest island were Friday forced to shut down a harbour on Rügen's north east coast and close kilometre-long stretches of beach because of fears that large swathes of its legendary cliffs would disintegrate and tumble into the Baltic Sea. A 100-metre long section of cliff near the island port of Sassnitz fell into the sea on Wednesday, sending 20,000 cubic metres of chalk crashing several hundred feet on to the beach below. The landslide posed a serious threat to tourists, who visit Rügen in large numbers. UNUSUALLY high rainfall and RECORD WATER TABLE LEVELS had caused the cliffs to become completely waterlogged, which made them particularly susceptible to disintegration and collapse. Every second measuring device installed along one section showed that water content levels had topped last year's all-time high. "The water levels are extreme." Aerial photographs of the island's north-east normally display a pristine coastline of shining white cliffs crowned by a large forest of beech trees. But pictures taken this week showed that huge swathes of cliff face had been stained brown by the flow of rainwater or had simply collapsed, crushing carefully-built wooden cliff stairways under heaps of sodden chalk. A harbour and the surrounding village are facing an uncertain future. A landslide first hit the village in March 2005. "There is an extreme danger of further landslides." Geologists say the cliffs have always suffered from erosion resulting from hard frosts followed by a sudden thaw and the effects of wind and waves. However, the heavy rainfall experienced during recent winters, which coincides with scientific data about the warming of the Baltic Sea, appears to have dramatically worsened the problem. (photo)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - As much as 50 centimetres of snow is expected to hit the southern and central parts of Saskatchewan in a "massive" blizzard that Environment Canada expected would begin Saturday and last until Tuesday. It has been more than ten years since such a storm has been seen in Saskatchewan at this time of year. This snow storm will come almost a week after high HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN in several parts of southern Saskatchewan on Monday. The temperature in Regina spiked at 28 Celsius on Monday. The old record of 26.7 had been in 1963. Having a storm like this towards the end of April is "unusual but not unprecedented."

OREGON - Orchardists will be breaking out massive frost fans and giant propane heaters in the Columbia River Gorge this weekend to protect their tender budding and blooming fruit trees from a freak cold snap. At stake are 300 tons of cherries, apples and pears worth $110 million to growers in five counties. "This cold spring has been a worry to everybody." The fans and heaters can only do so much. Cherry trees are at a crucial stage of development. "If the temps get as low as 21 to 24 degrees, we would see severe damage, even total loss." Blooming pears start to get damaged at 29 degrees. Forecasters said the low temperatures in the gorge should last through Monday morning, with snow levels as low as 500 feet. As much as 2 feet of snow is expected to fall in the Cascades. Growers in the gorge will see their lowest temperatures this morning. "It's almost not fair, especially after the highs of 80 we had last weekend."

CUBA - UNUSUAL spring weather baffles Cubans - Persistent cold temperatures this spring intrigues Cubans, although meteorologists discard the notion that there is any abnormality in the climate. For three nights (April 15-17), thermometers showed cold temperatures in the capital with a maximum of 21.4 degrees Celsius, which is A RECORD LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. What visitors from Europe and North America may regard as pleasant weather, instead brought out in Havana-dwellers coats and blazers, many of which had already been put away until next winter. Meteorologists admitted these temperatures are UNUSUAL and not frequent for this time of the year, but denied the phenomenon as abnormal or a consequence of climatic change.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Chance of U.S. Midwest drought heats up - Extremely dry weather in the Corn Belt this summer would put a squeeze on corn and soybean supplies, sending prices higher and hurting global food stocks. The odds of a major drought are at 1 in 3, about double the usual risk. A major drought typically strikes the Midwest every 18 or 19 years, and the last one hit in 1988. "We're overdue." In addition, the past 17 droughts were preceded a year earlier by dry conditions in the Southeastern U.S., just as occurred last year.
The threat of an UNUSUALLY hot, dry summer following a challenging, wet spring planting season is putting the 2008 grain crop at greater risk than normal. “Abnormal weather is almost becoming a normal occurrence, and conditions look particularly risky this year.” La Nina conditions that persist into late spring and early summer have historically resulted in dry conditions and extreme heat in the key growing regions of the United States. “We’ve seen almost a textbook La Nina so far, which has resulted in a stormy winter with heavy snow over the middle of the United States and a relatively mild winter on the East Coast. In fact, we’ve been in one of the strongest La Nina patterns that we’ve seen in quite awhile.” By early April, however, La Nina appeared to show signs of fading. A moderate to weak La Nina will likely dominate the summer of 2008. La Nina isn’t the only condition worth watching, however. The Bermuda high pressure area seems to be in place, and it appears that the sea surface temperature to the north of Hawaii will be on the warm side of usual this summer. Farmers around the United States are currently divided into two distinct categories: those who are overwhelmed by rain, and those who can’t buy a drop. These huge contrasts in the weather across the United States are becoming more common. “Higher-than-normal weather risk and uncertainty regarding yields of key crops this year, compounded by global shortages related to increased demand and unfavorable weather internationally, are resulting in a higher-than-normal level of supply risk this year.”

The average global land temperature last month was THE WARMEST ON RECORD and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880. Temperatures more than 8°F above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after THE GREATEST JANUARY SNOW COVER EXTENT ON RECORD on the Eurasian continent, the UNUSUALLY warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on the Eurasian continent was THE LOWEST ON RECORD. Despite above average snowpack levels in the U.S., the total Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was the fourth lowest on record for March.

Chinese officials have been manipulating the weather for 50 years now. There are 31 weather-modification offices in China. The administration employs 52,998 people. Officials are betting weather modification can keep the sun shining on the Olympics. One thing worth considering when you tamper with nature is what sort of nature you’re tampering with. Nature is not kind to the city of Beijing. China’s capital is arid, nearly a desert, and its natural weather patterns are fickle and harsh. Winter is marked by howling Siberian winds; summer, by sweltering monsoon heat. In lieu of showers, springtime is best known for seasonal dust storms that sweep down from Central Asia. Fall is parched and gusty too, but the dust settles down. This basic brutality is overlaid with levels of pollution like those of England’s Industrial Revolution.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, April 18, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
In the sky, there is no distinction of east and west;
people create distinctions out of their own minds and then believe them to be true.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.4 quake in ILLINOIS centered 127 miles east of St. Louis, Missouri. It shook southern Illinois at 4:36 a.m. (5:36 a.m. ET). There were no immediate reports of damage. People as far north as Chicago and as far west as St. Louis reported feeling the quake.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/17/08 -
5.5 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 VANUATU
5.4 VANUATU REGION
5.0 VANUATU
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.5 SAIPAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.3 CHIAPAS, MEXICO


VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - the status of Mt Papandayanwas raised from a normally active (level I) to alert (level II) on Wednesday (April 16) following an increase in the mountain`s volcanic activity. The monitoring on April 15 recorded 113 shallow volcanic quakes, including one tremor, a local tectonic shock, and a distant tectonic quake. Authorities are monitoring a possible formation of dikes following the collapse of the river banks in the upper reaches near the crater, which is a potential source of flash floods like those which occurred in 2002. Besides Mt Papandayan, 13 other mountains are also currently being intensively monitored. Mt. Egon (alert/ level III) currently has the highest alert level of the 13. Other mountains with an alert status (level II) are Gunung Anak Papandayan, Lokon, Talang, Kelud, Soputan, Karangetang, Kerinci, Gamkonora, Semeru, Duukono, Ibu and Gunung Bromo.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 27P was 841 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.
Typhoon NEOGURI was 221 nmi ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Southern China braced on Thursday for the first typhoon of the year, with almost 22,000 fishing boats called back to harbour. Typhoon Neoguri was heading north for the island province of Hainan, skirting the coast of Vietnam, and was forecast to make landfall tonight or Saturday morning. "Heavy rain and strong gales will hit Guangdong and Hainan with the approach of the typhoon."
Category Two Typhoon Neoguri is THE EARLIEST TYPHOON TO THREATEN THE REGION IN DECADES and MAY WELL BE THE STRONGEST. "Neoguri will be the earliest typhoon of the season to affect the south China region since the founding of new China in 1949." The storm was expected to be "one of the strongest in history" to hit the region. The typhoon is expected to drop 40 mm (one and a half inches) to 90 mm of rain on Hainan and Guangdong. "The heaviest downfall is expected to be 180 mm in southern Hainan." The typhoon season usually starts in May.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW ZEALAND - Rotorua had 108mm of rain in 24 hours from 9am Tuesday, causing damage to homes, cutting power in eastern Rotorua, clogging culverts and causing surface flooding. A FREAK wave that came down a hillside behind Otonga destroyed a fence and wrecked a road. Rotorua has not traditionally been flood-prone but in recent years more rain has fallen in shorter periods, causing drains to block more quickly, resulting in surface flooding. Weather experts have blamed the change in rainfall patterns on global warming. Rotorua is experiencing tropical downpours it never used to get and the short bursts of rain are putting pressure on the city's ability to soak up the water.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - Spring began in ONE OF THE COLDEST LATE MARCH STRETCHES IN SEATTLE HISTORY with even some lowland snow. And just as they hit a nice little warm, sunny stretch to signal to plants that maybe it's finally safe to come out and bloom, here comes another bout with freezing temperatures. Another very cold trough of low pressure will be dropping in from the Gulf of Alaska today and usher in SOME OF THE COLDEST APRIL TEMPERATURES they've seen in quite some time - perhaps record cold. Forecasting models say temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere could be on par with the big chill in late March. And it could even be cold enough for yet another round of snow in some parts of the lowlands. If snow does manage to accumulate at Sea-Tac Airport, it would be the record for latest snow in the airport's history. The old record is April 17, 1972. This system does have the potential to set records for both overnight lows and lack of daytime warmth. The record coldest high temperature for April 19th is 47 degrees (1975) and 49 degrees for April 20th (1970), and they could be well under that both days. A lot of plants who dared to pop up over the past few weeks are certainly not prepared for a night in the 20s. One of the chief reasons it's been so cold has been a persistent jet stream that has carried some arctic air from Siberia into the Alaska region, then aimed it southeast into the Pacific Northwest. Some of that persistence could likely be blamed on La Nina. La Nina is expected to remain in power until July, but for the Northwest, this phenomenon typically loses influence as they get into late spring and summer, meaning that even if La Nina hangs around that long, it doesn't necessarily mean a cool and wet summer on tap.

ALASKA - An avalanche that struck Wednesday knocked out more than a mile of transmission lines, leaving Juneau cut off from all of its hydroelectric power. The massive avalanche was about three miles from the Snettisham power house. One transmission tower is down and four are damaged on the Snettisham line. The Snettisham line connects hydropower to the service area. Currently Juneau is running on diesel generators from Auke Bay and Lemon Creek. It will take roughly two weeks before workers can safely begin repairing the line, and it would be at least three months before hydropower would be restored. As a result of the avalanche, electricity rates are likely to triple on bills for the month of May.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT -

MEXICO - drought is THREATENING NEARLY 1/4 OF THE CATTLE in Mexico, which has 21 million head of livestock. The drought has also started threatening 7.5 million hectares (18.52 million acres) of farmland.

ARGENTINA - fires have left a blanket of smoke across Buenos Aires. The fires from burning scrubland near the capital have disrupted air and road travel and smoke has spread across the River Plate to Montevideo, Uruguay. Roads, airports and ports have been closed and Buenos Aires residents, complaining of breathing difficulties and problems with their eyes, are closing their windows and staying indoors. The smell of burning is everywhere. The government accused farmers of setting the fires off to clear pasture. Farmers rejected the charge, saying it was designed to distract attention from a row over tax rises on farm exports. Fire-fighters are battling to control the flames that have spread over thousands of hectares. "We are facing a disaster caused by the hand of man." Argentine's left-wing government has been locked in a separate dispute with farmers over increases in export taxes on agricultural products. Earlier this month, the farmers suspended a strike which had led to shortages, but gave the government until the end of the month to address their concerns. Meanwhile, Buenos Aires residents are hoping for a change in the wind direction to clear the smoke which is making their lives a misery. (photo)

The global food crisis intensified on Tuesday as Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters halted foreign sales and rice prices shot to a record high after Indonesia stopped its farmers from selling the grain abroad. Their actions threaten to trigger bans in other food exporting countries, which will now face much higher demand from importing countries. Indonesia – which joins Vietnam, Egypt, China, Cambodia and India in banning foreign sales – was expected to export rice this year due to a bumper crop. The Kazakhstan ban, together with restrictions in Russia, Ukraine and Argentina, HAVE CLOSED A THIRD OF THE GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET. In another sign of turmoil, a big food company in Japan said high corn prices had forced it to buy cheaper genetically modified corn for the first time, breaking a social, though not legal, taboo and signalling that opposition to GM foods could weaken in the face of record food prices.

YEMEN - A year and half ago, Yemeni residents received water every 20 days, but it wasn’t enough. Citizens complained and constantly displayed their anger, but there was no real response by the authorities. Instead, the people sought to obtain more tanks to store more water so it would be sufficient for them during those 20 days. Water now is distributed every month and a half. As an urgent solution, citizens began buying water tanks, with a 1,000-liter tank costing YR 1,200, but suddenly, the price rose to YR 2,000. This is just one indicator of the “better future” Yemenis received as a gift for their “loyalty” during the elections. There are other indicators, such as price hikes, unemployment, poverty, etc., but life goes on. It’s really a matter of wonderment for all residents, who ask themselves thousands of times, “What’s coming after all of this?”

ISRAEL is suffering from a water crisis and immediate steps must be taken to resolve the problem the head of Israel's Water Authority announced on 13 April. Over the next five years, the country will be below the "red lines" at all water sources, and there will be a need to significantly increase the amount of water produced by desalination. The Israeli Union for Environmental Defence said it might go to the courts to force the state to invest more in conservation, as it promised to do in 2003. Four years of drought in Israel followed by an "extreme drought" in the last year was a "RARE circumstance, happening ONCE-IN-100-YEARS" and climate change was blamed for the problem.
A new Israeli government report has said 1/3 of the population has stopped buying vital nutritious food and is using any spare cash to pay for such things as utility bills. 34% of citizens no longer buy vegetables and other nutritious foods, as their priority was to pay bills such as rent and electricity. The data does not include Palestinians in the occupied Palestinian territory, where food insecurity is MORE widespread. The report spoke of "levels of food insecurity reaching worrying proportions". Many charities are noticing an increase in the number of people requesting aid this year.

Climate change is far worse than 2006 estimate - Lord Stern, the economist whose report on climate change helped galvanise world leaders behind the green energy movement when it was published 18 months ago, has admitted that the situation is far worse than the assumptions that formed the basis of his ground-breaking report. "We badly UNDERESTIMATED the degree of damages and the risks of climate change. All of the links in the chain are on average worse than we thought a couple of years ago." Greenhouse gas emissions are growing much faster than previously thought because of several factors that were not fully appreciated before, including the release of methane from thawing permafrost, the acidification of oceans, and the decay of carbon sinks. The sector to be most heavily affected by any global climate deal would be the energy industry, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of emissions. "We need to have zero carbon electricity, or very close to it, by 2050." The soaring use of coal in electricity generation comes principally from China where a new coal-fired power station comes into operation every week. "We need to get better at carbon capture and sequestration very quickly." Not only is coal the dirtiest fuel, it is also the only major fossil fuel source where big consumer nations still have large stores within their borders, and it is relatively cheap. For these reasons, most economists and energy analysts expect its consumption to grow massively.

Ocean salinity evidence of climate change - A team of scientists has spent the past four weeks on the Aurora Australis, measuring ocean currents between Australia and Antarctica. The research shows there has been a drop in ocean salinity, suggesting ice around Antarctica is melting more rapidly. "If it were to continue and so the waters around Antarctica continue to freshen and slow down the rate at which water sinks then that would have an impact on climate. Because that pattern of ocean currents is what determines how much heat and carbon the ocean stores and that in turn determines how fast the climate warms."

The United Nations has issued a report warning that global climate change and other environmental destruction is rapidly pushing the planet's life support systems past the point of no return. They refer to the fourth Global Environmental Outlook report as "THE FINAL WAKE-UP CALL to the international community." Current resource demand requires 22 hectares (54 acres) per person. However, current population levels mean that only 2.02 hectares per person are available. This is estimated to fall to 1.63 hectares per person by 2050 as the population climbs to a projected stabilization point of 8 to 10 billion. The report says that the planet is increasingly stressed by factors such as global climate change. Indicators of this ecological stress are the spread of dead zones in oceans and the resurgence of certain diseases. Certain regions of the planet are expected to reach ecological tipping points in the near future, meaning that the ecology will be so damaged that it can no longer recover.

The 88-year-old scientist and originator of Gaia theory has reached a bleak prognosis: the world as we know it is ceasing to exist. The impact of humanity has set in train processes that, according to Lovelock, are irreversible. Pollution, overpopulation and carbon emissions have already pushed the earth's delicate regulatory systems beyond the point of no return, he says, and steps to address the climate crisis can do no more than slow down the inevitable. The legacy for future generations is a world where droughts and extreme weather are commonplace, large portions of the planet are turned to uninhabitable desert and billions of people destined to die off. He has predicted that by 2040 the Sahara will be encroaching on Europe, and by 2100 there will be only 500 million of us surviving close to the poles. The essential truth of the Gaia hypothesis - that the Earth regulates itself - has been adopted by the scientific mainstream. Lovelock says his predictions on climate change are more extreme, but also more accurate than those of leading scientific bodies, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which he claims is limited in its assessment because it is made up of specialists whose focus is too narrow. As an environmentalist, he is surprisingly upbeat about humanity in spite of the apparent mess we've made of the planet. Without realizing it, he says, humans set into motion a train of events we didn't realize we were in no position to control. "We're a wonderfully valuable species to our planet. You see the great system has existed all those years and for the first time ever it's had people talking about it, and we're part of it, you see. So it's beginning to understand its position in the universe."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

U.S. - The current flu season has been more severe than the last three, with more doctor visits and more deaths from flu and pneumonia, federal health officials are reporting. The flu vaccine effectiveness was lower than usual.

Thursday, April 17, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
History isn't a seesaw. If you have a really bad regime on one side,
the actions on the other side don't automatically become good.
Nicholson Baker

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/16/08 -
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.8 NEAR WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
6.3 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - MOUNT EGON - Hundreds of Indonesians have fled their homes after a volcano erupted spewing ash and smoke thousands of metres into the air. Breathing masks and clean water have been rushed to the eastern island of Flores where Mount Egon erupted late yesterday. 600 people from a village near the crater have been evacuated. "There are more than 23,000 people in three subdistricts within the danger zone. Initial contacts with the heads of the subdistricts said that many people panicked yesterday evening because the eruption was preceded by earthquakes. But there are no figures available yet (on numbers of evacuated)." Authorities were thrown into confusion by the eruption, which came about 10.15pm. Magma coming into contact with water triggered the eruption.

INDONESIA - MOUNT PAPANDAYAN - authorities raised the alert level on the volcano near the country's third largest city. "Since April 16, at 12.00am (1500 AEST), we have upgraded the alert level of (Mount) Papandayan to 'vigilance' (level two)," a statement on the volcanology office's website said. The alert level for the mountain, near the city of Bandung, is now two rungs below that for an impending eruption. Bandung city has a population of three million, while the greater Bandung area is home to about 4.5 million. The mountain had not shown visual signs of activity but measuring equipment indicated an increased frequency of shallow volcanic quakes. Magma in the crater was also increasing steadily.

INDIA - A volcano erupted on Tuesday near a factory in Sendhwa town of the district and remained active for nearly one-and-a-half hour, causing panic in the area. Hot lava along with burning coal started flowing out from a barren land near Satyam Spinning factory and rose up to 5 to 6 feet. The lava came out from a crater of eight inches diameter. The officials believe that it might be the result of some geological disturbances. Experts have been sent to the spot to examine the exact cause behind the incident. The eruptions continued with less intensity on Wednesday with the lava cooling and causing a small hump-like structure. Locals said the eruption began with a small explosion on Tuesday causing a two-foot wide gap in the soil. Small quantities of molten rock erupted near a habitation, leaving neighbourhoods awestruck. People from places in the vicinity rushed to the spot to watch the natural phenomenon. "When I got to know about this volcano, we came here to see this. We saw that this vermilion coloured eruption coming out of the volcano. I have never seen something of this sort before. And after cooling, the lava turns black." Police cordoned off the area and the fire brigade was called as a precautionary measure to meet the possibility of fire breaking out. The eruptions have considerably declined but the authorities are reportedly making arrangements for investigating the cause of the eruptions.
Mystery shrouds the ground emissions that occurred Tuesday in the industrial area in Sendhwa block of Madhya Pradesh’s Badwani district. Activists contend that it was the result of increased seismic activity following construction of large dams, but district officials and geologists feel that nothing could be said with certainty until a chemical examination of the fluid that issued from the ground was completed. Sendhwa falls under the catchment area of the Narmada River on which Sardar Sarovar Dam Project is constructed. Some factory workers in the industrial area heard an explosion Tuesday afternoon on a vacant plot and saw a gusher rising in the air. Thinking that a transformer had exploded, some people went to the spot where they saw a one-and-a-half feet wide and eight-inch deep crater with reddish lava gushing out of it. The amber lava continued to ooze for over an hour before cooling down. The molten fluid reportedly heated up the vicinity creating panic among the factory owners. Some of the eyewitnesses said that at one point the lava gushed up to a height of five to six feet and burned the grass about 50 feet away. The flow stopped at around 4 p.m. after about two to five litres of the lava had oozed out. The spot is next to an electric pole carrying an 11 KV power line and some MPEB experts say that such a phenomenon was possible due to high voltage current running overhead. "The Narmada valley has been a geological fault zone and the Sardar Sarovar dam is situated in the ‘triple junction’ area of fault lines - one coming from Aravalli ranges and other from the Western Ghats, apart from the Narmada Fault zone. The Dam has increased the seismic activity in the area. There have been instances of tremors in Khandwa region. Strange noises like bomb explosions were heard about six months ago at Kochda village of Dharampuri tehsil in Dhar district also. This area too got submerged by the SSP reservoir.

HAWAII - KILAUEA - a red, orange, and yellow glow is emanating from a vent at Halemaumau Crater, believed to be the home of the mythical Pele, Hawaii's volcano goddess. This incandescent glow has RARELY been seen at Halemaumau Crater in all the days that the volcano had been exploding. The colorful hues are created by superheated fumes and steam plumes rising out of a vent in the crater. Park officials advise that the glow is best seen at sunset and early evening. Earlier, high levels of sulfur dioxide pouring out of the exploding volcano's crater prompted officials to close the park for two days last week.

COLUMBIA has downgraded a state of alert following the reduction in activity of a volcano south-west of the capital, Bogota. The Nevado del Huila, the country's third highest peak, belched smoke and ash late on Monday night. However, officials say there is no imminent risk of a major eruption. Thousands of people who fled their homes on Monday night after the state of emergency was declared have begun returning to their homes.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - At least 33 people died when a passenger aircraft carrying 85 people, during a take-off attempt, crashed into a crowded neighbourhood yesterday in Goma, a town in the east. The aircraft appeared to have broken in two when it failed to take off and slammed into houses and shops at the end of the runway. The runway used to be longer, but was partially blocked by lava from a volcano in 2001. This makes Goma a particularly difficult spot for take-off, local sources in the aviation industry say.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
New forecast for big sea level rise - Sea levels could rise by up to one-and-a-half metres by the end of this century, according to a new scientific analysis. This is substantially more than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast in last year's landmark assessment of climate science. The latest satellite data indicates that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass, though the much bigger East Antarctic sheet may be gaining mass. "There's a lot of evidence out there that we're going to see at least a metre of sea level rise by 2100. We're seeing big changes in Greenland, we're seeing big changes in West Antarctica, so we're expecting this to show up in the sea level data as an increase in the rate we've been observing." A rise of even a metre could have major implications for low-lying countries.

Where will all these people go? - There are 10 million victims threatened by the annual floods that ravage Bangladesh. Millions of these find temporary shelter in the rivers, on islands that emerge when water levels drop during the summer. Experts say a third of Bangladesh's coastline could be flooded if the sea rises one metre in the next 50 years, creating an additional 20 million Bangladeshis displaced from their homes and farms. This is about the same as Australia's population. "Bangladesh is already facing consequences of a sea level rise, including salinity and UNUSUAL height of tidal water." It is unclear how the government could feed, house or find enough clean water for vast numbers of climate refugees in a country of 140 million people crammed into an area of 55,500 sq miles. In a taste of what the future might look like, Bangladesh suffered two massive floods and a cyclone last year that together killed about 4,500 people, made at least two million homeless and destroyed 1.8 million tons of rice.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon NEOGURI was 218 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Typhoon Neoguri, a Category 1 hurricane, is churning through the South China Sea on its way toward landfall in China, or possibly Vietnam, according to data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Still hundreds of miles south-southeast of Hainan, China, Typhoon Neoguri reached hurricane strength in recent hours, and now packs sustained winds of 75 mph. It is forecast to become a weak Category 2 storm, with sustained wind speeds of up to 97 mph, before weakening slightly before landfall.

VIETNAM's Deputy Prime Minister called on ministries, sectors and localities to be vigilant as the country's first storm of the year, the Neoguri, was just 240km from the coast of the central provinces Quang Ngai and Khanh Hoa. He said the storm was coming earlier than those in previous years. The storm was expected to move north-west at a pace of 15km per hour. Residents were also warned about abnormal weather patterns during the summer because of global climate change and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon. Vietnam is expected to be hit with more storms, torrential rains and floods. In the Mekong Delta, floods are expected to occur from July to September as the river water levels will rise to the third warning level (the danger level for floods). (map)

THAILAND - more rains will fall in the eastern side of northeastern Thailand today because of the influence of tropical storm Neoguri.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
INDIA - Himachal Pradesh’s tribal mountainous belt has been experiencing UNSEASONAL snowfall sending the mercury plummeting in the hills Wednesday. It continued to snow intermittently at several places for the second consecutive day in Lahaul & Spiti, Kinnaur and Pangi. Farmers in Kinnaur are worried as the unseasonal snowfall may cause damage to crops, particularly apples. The upper reaches of the Kullu Valley, including Hanuman peak, Manali peak, Seven sisters peak, the Rohtang pass and the Hamta pass, recorded a fresh spell of heavy snowfall. The mid and lower hills were lashed by hail and rain.

SWITZERLAND - Flooding could be much worse in parts of Switzerland than it was during the extreme weather of 1999 and 2005. The results of a new study show that if lakes and rivers in the region flood again, up to 80,000 people could be affected, and entire valleys cut off. In this worst-case scenario, large areas of the countryside and residential areas could be under water for weeks. There is currently up to two metres of snow in the Alps and experts say that if May is warm and wet, the snowmelt combined with rain could lead to an extreme flooding event.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

COLORADO - At least three people have died in wildfires that have scorched about 1000 acres in southeastern Colorado. Wildfires in warm, windy weather burned into a southeast Colorado town, killing 2 people and forcing 1100 residents to leave. A firefighting pilot has also been killed. Firefighters were hoping rain and snow Wednesday would help them quell the blazes. Dry conditions on the plains and in some mountain valleys contrasted with deep snow at higher elevations. "It's been an interesting dichotomy this year. It's not unusual to see this, but this year has been VERY EXTREME in terms of what we see out on the plains versus what we see out on the mountains." The eastern plains have seen little moisture this winter, although they are currently entering their wet season when they hope to catch up. Meanwhile, the statewide snow pack is at 126 percent of average. "On the downside, we do have a potential for flood problems if we get into a worst-case scenario with weather patterns in May and June." What they are worried about is a sustained warm-up of about five to seven days of very warm weather or widespread high-elevation rain. (photos)

INDIA - At least five people are feared to have died in a heat wave that has gripped Orissa for the past four days.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Researchers have charted seasonal flu's global journey - New strains of seasonal influenza virus all arise in East or Southeast Asia and take a largely predictable route around the world before dying out for good in South America.

The price rise of food commodities is not a short-term crisis; it is here to stay. “The world has just about enough cereal stocks to feed the global population for two to three months.” “The world food situation is very serious today with food riots reported from many countries like Egypt, Cameroon, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Senegal. We fear that this may spread to other countries. World food prices have risen 45% in the last nine months." The world has only 4-5 million tons of cereal stocks, and that can feed the planet’s population for only 8-12 weeks. Coming soon: The Hunger Tsunami - ‘hunger riots’ were prophesied in October 2007, after the cost of a meal in Africa had increased an average 40% in a year. The rise of the food prices is just the tip of the iceberg, other basic products such as milk, meat, or soap are soaring, creating an uncontrollable inflation spiral. The problem of the escalating prices across the planet comes “from the increasing demand from developing countries, particularly China and India” and the diversion of food grains towards production of bio-fuels. “As incomes rise, the Chinese people are quickly diversifying their diet, shifting from heavy dependence on a starchy staple, such as rice, to one that contains more livestock products.” “China’s total coverage of cultivated land dropped by an astounding 21 million hectares between 1958 and 1995, while the nation’s population grew significantly from 660 million to 1.2 billion during the same period.” For years China pretended that it had no problem to feed its people. But it is now accepted that the nation will face a 4.8 million tons grain shortage in 2010, almost 9% of the nation’s consumption.

"If food security cannot be restored quickly, social unrest and political instability will spread and the number of failing states will likely increase dramatically, THREATENING THE VERY STABILITY OF CIVILIZATION ITSELF." The fast-unfolding food shortage is engulfing the entire world, driving food prices to record highs. The world has not experienced anything quite like this before. In the face of rising food prices and spreading hunger, the social order is beginning to break down in some countries. In several provinces in Thailand, for instance, rustlers steal rice by harvesting fields during the night. In Darfur, during the first three months of this year, 56 U.N. grain-laden trucks were hijacked. Thus far, only 20 of the trucks have been recovered and some 24 drivers are still unaccounted for. This threat to U.N.-supplied food to the Darfur camps has reduced the flow of food into the region by half, raising the specter of starvation if supply lines cannot be secured. In Pakistan, thousands of armed Pakistani troops have been assigned to guard grain elevators and to accompany the trucks that transport grain. Food riots are now becoming commonplace around the world. On top of other trends, climate change presents new risks. Crop-withering heat waves, more-destructive storms, and the melting of the Asian mountain glaciers that sustain the dry-season flow of that region’s major rivers, are combining to make harvest expansion more difficult. In the past the negative effect of unusual weather events was always temporary; within a year or two things would return to normal. But with climate in flux, there is no norm to return to. During seven of the last eight years, grain consumption exceeded production. With grain stocks at an all-time low, the world is only one poor harvest away from total chaos in world grain markets. This troubling situation is UNLIKE ANY THE WORLD HAS FACED BEFORE. The challenge is not simply to deal with a temporary rise in grain prices, as in the past, but rather to quickly alter those trends whose cumulative effects collectively threaten the food security that is a hallmark of civilization.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 -

[Sorry, things got a little complicated and I did not get the webpage up today.]

This morning there has been a 6.5 quake in the ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/15/08 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.7 TONGA
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.1 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"I'm proud to be paying taxes in the United States. The only thing is -
I could be just as proud for half the money."
Arthur Godfrey

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.1 quake off shore GUATEMALA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/14/08 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 GUAM REGION
5.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

CALIFORNIA - Southern California faces THE VIRTUAL CERTAINTY that an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater will rock the region within the next three decades, according to a newly updated statewide quake forecast released Monday. Scientists estimate a 99.7% chance that a quake of such magnitude will strike in the next 30 years - with the odds highest in Southern California. And the forecast estimates the likelihood of a magnitude 7.5 quake or greater in California over the next three decades is nearly 50 percent - and also more likely to occur in Southern California. Results of such a quake could be devastating: The 1994 Northridge quake registered 6.7 - and left more than 70 dead, thousands injured and more than $25 billion in damages. "If you take an earthquake the size of Northridge we expect earthquakes of that size to occur somewhere in California at the rate of approximately one every five years. In other words, if we translate that into the probability of having such an earthquake over the next 30 years, it's almost 100 percent." Forecasters aid the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67 percent. That compares to 63 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area. The new forecast probabilities are the result of combining information from earthquake geology, seismology and by measuring precise locations on the Earth's surface.

OREGON - the more than 600 earthquakes in the last 10 days off the central Oregon coast are occurring in an area not typically known for a high degree of seismic activity. This earthquake “swarm” is UNIQUE because it is occurring within the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate – away from the major, regional tectonic boundaries. “In the 17 years we’ve been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we’ve never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this. We’re not certain what it means. But we hope to have a ship divert to the site and take some water samples that may help us learn more.” The water samples may indicate whether the process causing the earthquakes is tectonic or hydrothermal. At least three of the earthquakes have been of a magnitude of 5.0 or higher which also is UNUSUAL. On Monday (April 7), the largest event took place, which was a 5.4 quake. Seismic activity continued through the week and a 5.0 tremor hit on Thursday (April 10). Numerous small quakes continued in-between the periodic larger events. The earthquakes are located about 150 nautical miles southwest of Newport, in a basin between two subsurface “faulted” geologic features rising out of the deep abyssal sediments. The hill closest to the swarm location appears to be on a curved structure edging out in a northwestern direction from the Blanco Transform Fault toward the Juan de Fuca ridge. “Some process going on down there is sustaining a high stress rate in the crust...The fact that it’s taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling. It’s something worth keeping an eye on.”

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Nevado del Huila volcano has erupted in a shower of hot ash, prompting authorities to evacuate thousands of people and declare a state of alert. There were no reports of damage or injuries. The volcano, about 180 miles southwest of Bogota in the northern Andes, erupted at 11:08 p.m. Monday (0008 Eastern Tuesday). Authorities were unable to estimate the size of the eruption. The eruption amounted to a "Level Red" - the most severe designation for volcanoes - but darkness made it difficult to gauge precisely what had happened. The volcano was expelling ash. "Other types of material could come, like lava, but we don't at the moment know the exact situation." Between 13,000 and 15,000 people who live near the volcano were being evacuated. Authorities warned of possible avalanches and urged local officials to monitor the volume of rivers near the volcano. The volcano stood silent for more than 400 years, releasing only columns of steam, until an eruption last year which caused damaging mud flows.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FORMATION was 313 nmi SW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm NEOGURI was 346 nmi SW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
[site note - these two storms appear to be almost on top of one another. One of them is apparently also called "Ambo", per article below.]

A tropical depression designated as “Ambo” sliced across central Philippines Monday with peak winds of 45 kph, causing flooding and forcing 62 people to flee their homes in Cebu City. Ambo, which developed from a low pressure area east of Mindanao on Sunday, was located 130 km west of Dumaguete City Monday. Ambo was expected to be in the vicinity of Puerto Princesa City this afternoon and out over the South China Sea 400 km west northwest of the Palawan capital on Wednesday. The sudden shift of the weather did not signal the end of summer. "A tropical depression in the middle of the season is not highly unusual. Summer is not over yet. The country will still experience more of the warm, hot and humid weather in the coming days.”
Rains brought by Tropical Depression "Ambo," the first cyclone to hit the Philippines this year, surprised many residents in Metro Manila who were expecting another hot summer day. While it is seldom that such rains from a cyclone will occur at this time of year, it is not surprising because low-pressure areas usually form off Mindanao at this time. "Residents in coastal areas under signal number one are alerted against big waves generated by this tropical cyclone."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CANADA - Flooding is happening all over Ontario after record snowfalls. “It’s expected to get worse before it gets better.”

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Hundreds displaced by landslide in PNG’s Simbu Province. Gera village near Kundiawa has been declared a disaster zone after a massive landslide. The slide crushed a number of houses, four church buildings, food gardens, livestock areas, and displaced over 2,000 people.
Thousands of people are battling the aftermath of landslides and flooding which hit PNG's Highlands during the weekend. Up to five kilometres of the country's main road linking the Highland's to the port city, Lae, has been damaged, causing long traffic delays across the region. The damage and traffic jams are hampering trucking companies and mining operations while authorities attempt to repair broken power lines. It could be three weeks before the road is repaired.

FINLAND - wet, rainy winter combined with warm early spring temperatures have increased the threat of flooding in large parts of the country. Flood levels have been exceeded along the Kymi River. The flow volume for the river has been measured at 550 cubic metres per second, the HIGHEST SINCE THE LATE 1980s. Water levels on a number of large lakes, Päijänne, Saimaa and Längelmävesi are UNUSUALLY HIGH for the time of year and are not expected to peak until the end of May or beginning of June. During the first two weeks of April, southern and central parts of the country received more rain than the normal average for the ENTIRE MONTH. Most of northern Finland is still snow-covered, making it difficult to forecast possible floods. An UNUSUAL amount of snow is still on the ground in western Lapland. The snow cover is 10 - 20 cm thicker than average in many areas of Lapland. Snow is still UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THE TIME OF YEAR also in Kainuu, Koillismaa and eastern parts of North Karelia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FLORIDA - a cold front that crossed the state Monday could make the next few days feel more like January. The front could shove temperatures down to levels some locations haven't seen in April since 1950. The National Weather Service said low temperatures could set records today and Wednesday morning, especially east and north of Tampa. Wind off the Gulf of Mexico overnight kept temperatures along the coast and at Tampa International Airport from dropping too far on Monday morning. The air picked up warmth from the 70-degree Gulf of Mexico water and kept the coastal areas warmer than inland, where temperatures fell to the low 50s or below. With the front heading south of the Tampa Bay area, colder air will drain over the state and keep the daytime temperatures about 70 and temperatures this morning about 50 in Tampa and lower inland. Those temperatures are more typical of January. Such a late chill is not common but one does roll through once in a while.

ALABAMA - The freezing temperatures that settled across the state Monday night pose a threat to some crops planted by area farmers. Corn and some garden crops are already starting to break ground, making them vulnerable to late freezes. "Depending on how long the freeze lasts, it could have a devastating effect." Vegetables planted for the Farmer's Market or home use are the most likely to have been hurt by the frost, but corn could also have been impacted. "A lot of corn has already been planted. It could hurt those crops. We hope that it won't." If exposure to freezing temperatures is brief, crops will likely bounce back. The cold temperatures across central Alabama are the result of a powerful low-pressure system.

AUSTRALIA - Rock lobster catches have unexpectedly dropped this year, with the catch at the end of March down 10% on last year. As of March 31, 75 per cent (380 tonne) of the Total Allowable Catch in the northern zone had been caught, compared to 425 tonne in 2007. “There was an expectation that the catch would be steady this year so such a drop was not expected. There is uncertainty about why the catch has dropped, with cold water being a consideration.” The season started slowly, was reasonable in the middle, and had slowed up again now. “It’s difficult to see how the season will end up.” Cold water had influenced the South East in particular and had possibly affected the northern zone too. The season opened on November 1, 2007 and closes May 31.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ISRAEL - heat wave triggers wildfires. Emergency officials in Israel have ordered the evacuation of hundreds of hikers from wilderness areas plagued by an outbreak of wildfires. A stifling heat wave has sparked a rash of fires in the Golan Heights and Beit Shemesh areas, including popular hiking trails in the Carmela forest.

CALIFORNIA - HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET throughout Southern California on Sunday - many in the same areas that also set records a day earlier. A high-pressure system that settled over the West Coast sent the temperature at the San Diego Wild Animal Park near Escondido soaring to 97 degrees, the highest for the day in 24 years. Los Angeles International Airport baked under temperatures of 96 degrees. The previous record was 90 degrees on the same day in 1947. The Santa Monica Pier heated up to 86 degrees, breaking the record of 78 degrees set on the same day in 1993.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Monday, April 14, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The best way out is always through.
Robert Frost

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/13/08 -
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 BERING STRAIT
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - A Damascus man was peering into the mouth of Mount St. Helens on Saturday when the snow beneath him gave way and sent him tumbling hundreds of feet to the crater floor. And he lived. He'd gotten off his snowmobile and crawled on all fours onto a cornice - an overhanging edge of snow - when it gave way. He fell about 100 to 200 feet before landing on the inside slope of the volcano's crater, then he slid about 1000 feet on his hands and knees to the bottom of the crater. He was wearing his snowmobile helmet. A helicopter picked up two members of the Volcano Rescue Team and took them to the crater floor where they rescued the man. His injuries did not appear life-threatening.

A new study has suggested that a volcanic eruption that happened in 1600 in the Andes mountains may have plunged the world into cold climate chaos. The eruption of the volcano, known as Huaynaputina, blanketed nearby villages with glowing rock and ash, killing some 1,500 people. But it may also have had a far wider effect, by injecting sulphur particles high into the atmosphere and disrupting the climate worldwide. The year 1601 featured several climate discrepancies. Tree-ring records show that it was the coldest year in six centuries in the Northern Hemisphere - possibly due to the cooling caused by the sulphur particles spewed from the volcano. The effect was felt on the other side of the globe, where a severe winter caused famine in Russia. Snow blanketed Sweden, leading to record flooding and a poor harvest. Wine harvests were late in France. In Japan, Lake Suwa froze far earlier than usual. Galleons travelling from Mexico to the Philippines made the trip significantly faster than normal, perhaps because of altered wind patterns. “What we find is that 1601 was among the coldest or wettest or worst years, in many cases. Some of these events have previously been attributed to the centuries-long cooling trend known as the Little Ice Age - but they may more properly be ascribed to Huayaputina.”

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - Two Americans and one Norwegian tourist on a South African shark cage diving adventure drowned Sunday when their boat was hit by a FREAK wave. The 10 passengers and nine crew members onboard were flung into the water when the boat capsized under the wave. Nearby boats rescued 16 people who were taken to a hospital with minor injuries. The boat had just anchored around 10 a.m. and was preparing to lower the first cage into the water when the freak wave hit. "The sea was flat and conditions were perfect to go out. Out of nowhere a freak wave washed up right up against the boat and made it capsize." There were no sharks immediately in the vicinity at the time, because boat operators had not started "chumming".

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FORMATION was 221 nmi WSW of Cebu City, Philippines.

Tropical Storm Erin may have become a hurricane ... deep inland over Oklahoma. Erin occurred in mid-August in 2007. Only now, in April 2008, has the corresponding National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone report finally been released. The extraordinarily long time gap underscores just how MYSTERIOUS a meteorological phenomenon Erin actually was, and how long it must have taken meteorologists to figure out what they could say about it. Consider: Over water, Erin was never anything but a weak and disorganized tropical storm, one that struck the Texas coast on August 16 with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots (tropical depression class). But then SOMETHING BEYOND CRAZY happened. Over land, the remnants of the storm system looped up towards Oklahoma and reorganized, so much so that August 19 satellite images show Erin, its center very close to Oklahoma City, resembling an overland hurricane with an "eye" that it had never managed to develop over water. Meanwhile, the winds picked up far more than they ever had over the Gulf – reaching 50 knots sustained, 70 knot gusts – even as pressure fell as far as 995 millibars (far lower than when Erin had been an easily categorizable tropical storm). So what on earth was Erin after it re-intensified over land? The experts don't know what to call it – none of the familiar categories work. As the report explains: "While the system's structure, particularly its convective organization as seen on radar, resembled and had some characteristics of a tropical storm for a few hours on 19 August, the prevailing view from the Hurricane Specialists at the National Hurricane Center is that the system was not a tropical cyclone over Oklahoma… Since the system was clearly non-frontal, designating it as an extratropical cyclone is also not the most appropriate solution. In addition, the prevailing view among the NHC’s Hurricane Specialists is that the system’s duration over Oklahoma on 19 August was also too short to classify it as a subtropical cyclone. Given all of the considerations described above, the system is simply designated as a “low” by NHC on 19 August." Whatever Erin was, it was deadly. In its second, uncategorizable phase, the storm killed seven people, casualties of intense rainfall and flooding. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FIJI - prices of vegetables are expected to sky-rocket as a result of the rainy weather. The heavy rainfall over the past few days has damaged vegetables. Many of the crops they had planted after Cyclone Gene in late January were nearing maturity but they again face ruin. Continued wet weather would push prices further up.

ARKANSAS - While towns along the lower reaches of the White River in eastern Arkansas braced for more flooding Sunday, residents of northwest Arkansas worked to assess damages from storms last week, including two tornadoes Thursday that were confirmed two days later. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers last week opened floodgates on several White River watershed dams holding back reservoirs that had been filled to capacity by recent torrential rains. Release of the water that had built up in the lakes sent another surge of floodwater barreling down the White River, already out of its banks along most of its course through eastern Arkansas.

MISSOURI - This has certainly been A YEAR OF RECORDS in the Ozarks as storm after storm blasted the region. It started with the RECORD tornado outbreaks in January and early February, RECORD-SETTING rainfall in February, the wettest March ON RECORD, along with flash flooding, ice storms, and bitter cold. What a year so far. In the long-range forecast it looks like weather-weary residents in southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas will get a brief break in the active pattern before it sets up again in May. The pattern is being influenced by La Nina. In January, across a large portion of the central Pacific, sea-surface temperatures were 3-4 degrees below what is normal representing a strong La Nina, while now, the anomolies run 1-2 degrees below normal. While it does not seem significant, it does tell us that La Nina is slowly waning and may entering a neutral cycle in 1-2 months. Above average precipitation can be expected for the period April through June (the chance of this occuring stands around 60 percent based on La Nina Precipitation Probabilities). The trend has been for frontal boundaries to stall right through the heart of the Ozarks and this is where the majority of the heavy rain events have come from...as moisture increases this spring (as it normally does) widespread heavy rainfall events are possible. After all, the next two-three months are the wettest months in this area. Table Rock Lake crested Saturday at 933.25' above sea level, which is THE HIGHEST THE LAKE HAS EVER BEEN (the previous crest was 932.5' on May 10, 1961) and is less than 4 feet below what the Corps of Engineers calls a "catastrophic level" when the new auxilliary flood gates would also be opened. The lake level this time of the year is generally around 906 feet above sea level and it peaks in June around an average level of 918. Right now it is at 932 feet and heading into the "wet season." (many maps)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A doubling of food prices over the past three years could push 100 million people in poorer developing countries further into poverty and governments must step in to tackle the issue, the World Bank president said last week. "This is not just a question about short-term needs, as important as those are. This is about ensuring that future generations don't pay a price, too...We have to put our money where our mouth is now so that we can put food into hungry mouths. It's as stark as that." The crisis could mean "seven lost years" in the fight against worldwide poverty. The food crisis attracted increasing attention at this weekend's spring meetings of the 185-nation World Bank and its twin institution, the International Monetary Fund, sparking loud warnings of dire consequences. "Food prices, if they go on like they are doing today ... the consequences will be terrible. As we know, learning from the past, those kind of questions sometimes end in war." Prices of rice, wheat, corn, cooking oil, milk and other foodstuffs have all risen sharply in recent months, sparking violent protests in many countries, including Egypt, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Madagascar, the Philippines and Indonesia. A World Bank report last week said global wheat prices jumped 181% over the 36 months to February, with overall food prices up 83%.

Sunday, April 13, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Knowledge stems from absurd ideas.
Einstein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/12/08 -
5.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 VANUATU
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.3 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.7 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.3 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
7.1 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
4/11/08 -
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.5 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 SAIPAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS

OREGON - Scientists listening to underwater microphones have detected an UNUSUAL SWARM of earthquakes off central Oregon, something that often happens before a volcanic eruption — except there are no volcanoes in the area. Scientists don't know exactly what the earthquakes mean, but they could be the result of molten rock rumbling away from the recognized earthquake faults off Oregon. There have been more than 600 quakes over the past 10 days in a basin 150 miles southwest of Newport. The biggest was magnitude 5.4, and two others were more than magnitude 5.0. On the hydrophones, the quakes sound like low thunder and are UNLIKE ANYTHING SCIENTISTS HAVE HEARD IN 17 YEARS OF LISTENING. Some of the quakes have also been detected by earthquake instruments on land. The hydrophones are left over from a network the Navy used to listen for submarines during the Cold War. They routinely detect passing ships, earthquakes on the ocean bottom and whales calling to one another. Scientists hope to send out an OSU research ship to take water samples, looking for evidence that sediment has been stirred up and chemicals that would indicate magma is moving up through the Juan de Fuca Plate. The Juan de Fuca Plate is a small piece of crust being crushed between the Pacific Plate and North America. The quakes HAVE NOT FOLLOWED THE TYPICAL PATTERN of a major shock followed by a series of diminishing aftershocks, and few have been strong enough to be felt on shore.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea Volcano exploded again. Officials say a small explosion that sent rocks more than 200 feet up onto the rim of the volcano's main Halemaumau crater occurred Wednesday night, hours before the park reopened. The park was evacuated Tuesday and remained closed Wednesday because of elevated sulfur dioxide emissions. The U.S. Geological Survey says Wednesday's blast at Halemaumau crater was much smaller than a similar explosion in March, but still enlarged the new vent in the wall of the crater about 15 to 30 feet. Scientists say they found lava splatters and rocks ejected by the blast, which also contained volcanic glass shards. They say there is increasing evidence that molten lava is collecting about 300 to 600 feet below the new vent.

INDONESIA - Mount Ibu in the eastern Indonesian province of North Maluku spewed thick smoke up to 500 meters into the sky in the past few days. "Earthquakes continue to occur at and around the volcano. On average there are 40 earthquakes per day." The volcanic activity is not considered dangerous and no residents have evacuated. There are 6 villages located on the volcano's slope. Mount Ibu began showing signs of increased activity in mid-March.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARKANSAS, MISSOURI - The rain has ended, but rivers are continuing to flood parts of Missouri and Arkansas and as still more evacuations take place, the latest round of flooding has claimed at least two lives. Homes were evacuated again along the White and Black Rivers, as flooding hit the 50-year mark in Arkansas for the second time in two months. "To have that happen two times in three weeks is not statistically impossible, but you probably have a better chance of winning the lottery.” Rain has been falling on and off since last week. In addition, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is continuing to release water from six dams, all of which drain into the White River. In Arkansas counties in the southeastern part of the state, the water levels continue to rise and many roads are not passable. Observers report that damage to crops is extensive and that entire neighborhoods in some regions are underwater. Homemade videos have appeared on the internet on sites like YouTube that show the swollen rivers with houses floating downstream and fields where only the tops of the spring crops are visible at the surface of the water.

TENNESSEE - Severe storms and possible tornadoes ripped through Tennessee on Friday, damaging more than 100 homes, downing trees and injuring at least five people. The state was pummeled repeatedly with heavy rain and wind that began Thursday night and continued into Friday afternoon. RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN fell in Nashville on Friday, according to the National Weather Service, which measured 2.61 inches of precipitation over a 24-hour period. That broke the record of 2.3 inches of rain for April 11, set in 1962.

OHIO - No one is sure why floodwaters won't go down in the northern Ohio town of Bellevue. Residents are frustrated and city leaders are too, saying they aren't getting much help from the state or federal government. The water has damaged the foundations of homes, closed roads and swamped farm fields that are just outside the town, which is about 45 miles southeast of Toledo. Most think that the problems have been created by melting snow in March that had nowhere drain because the ground was already too saturated. And strong winds have been pushing water from draining north to Lake Erie.

LOUISIANA - The Army Corps of Engineers opened a spillway near New Orleans for the FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS on Friday in an effort to spare the city any flooding from the swollen Mississippi River. Heavy rain in the Mississippi Valley prompted the decision to open the Bonnet Carre Spillway, about 30 miles north of New Orleans. The corps said the spillway could be open for a month. In addition to helping guard against flooding, opening the spillway is meant to ease pressure on levees and make it safer for ships and barges to navigate the river. The Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans is one of the world's busiest commercial waterways. Despite the annual rising of the river, the corps seldom employs the spillway. Friday's opening was only the ninth since the spillway's construction in 1931. The spillway diverts river water to Lake Pontchartrain, and from there into the Gulf of Mexico. The runoff from the river is not expected to significantly raise the level of the lake, but it is expected to affect plant and marine life as fresh river water pours into the brackish lake. (photos)

KUWAIT - Cleanup crews yesterday began clearing debris from Friday's freak storm that hit Kuwait, uprooting hundreds of traffic signposts, billboards and trees and damaging many cars in several parts of the state. The violent thunderstorm, which lasted 15 to 20 minutes, came suddenly and without warning, leaving many motorists unprepared and unable to cope with the climate change - leaving many windshields and car windows cracked or shattered as a result. The storm was caused by gale-force winds that blew in "semi-tornado" fashion at around 90 km per hour. One person was killed and several wounded. The victim drowned in the sea while several people were injured at a shopping mall where glass shattered and fell on shoppers.

SRI LANKA - UNUSUAL weather patterns may be experienced in the New Year season, as strong winds head towards the island, bringing heavy rains and possibly even mini-tornadoes. The situation was expected to be aggravated by the normally adverse weather conditions that prevail during the inter-monsoon period, characterised by heavy showers accompanied by lightning and thunder. “This year the rain patterns are UNUSUAL because of fluctuating sea levels, temperature and changes of pressure in the atmosphere. Mini-tornadoes may develop out of heavy winds and thunderclouds in the coming week. Currently, a low-level atmospheric disturbance prevails over the east coast of Sri Lanka, and if it moves inland, it could cause heavy rains for a few weeks." Inter-monsoon weather conditions, usually starting in mid- March, have been UNUSUALLY LATE this year. These conditions were expected to continue till the end of May.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Firefighting authorities say they have been staggered by changes to fire behaviour because of ongoing drought in South Australia. As the official fire ban season ends for some SA regions, the drought has created a whole new set of firefighting conditions. Even the most experienced firefighters have struggled at times. "We have been STAGGERED BY THE FIRE BEHAVIOUR we've seen. We've seen fire behaviour that career firefighters have been unlikely to see and CERTAINLY HAVEN'T EXPECTED in the fires that we have had. Previously firefighters would be very confident that this fire would trickle through the grassland and be easily contained - they're seeing fire behaviour where it's just ripping up the bark of trees and into the canopies." One of the worst bushfire locations of the past season in SA was on Kangaroo Island where blazes consumed a wide area. (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

IMF head gives food price warning - The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that hundreds of thousands of people will face starvation if food prices keep rising. Social unrest from continuing food price inflation could cause conflict. There have been food riots recently in a number of countries, including Haiti, the Philippines and Egypt. Although the problems in global credit markets were the main focus of the meeting, he warned of dire consequences from continued food price rises. "Thousands, hundreds of thousands of people will be starving. Children will be suffering from malnutrition, with consequences for all their lives." The problem could lead to trade imbalances that may eventually affect developed nations, "so it is not only a humanitarian question". Food prices have risen sharply in recent months, driven by increased demand, poor weather in some countries and an increase in the use of land to grow crops for transport fuels.
Spiralling food prices have already prompted government intervention in many countries. India, Morocco, China, Senegal and Indonesia have cut import tariffs on wheat, while Ethiopia, Pakistan and Zambia have imposed export quotas and, in extreme cases, export bans. Many countries, including Benin and Senegal, have introduced food subsidies in an attempt to keep basics at an affordable price. The threat of starvation recently triggered riots in Indonesia, prompting government intervention in the form of food subsidies. Shortages and high food and fuel prices have sparked civil unrest in Central Africa, West Africa and Zimbabwe and caused riots over the last few years in Mexico, Bengal, Indonesia, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea and Mauritania. World cereal production has declined by up to 16% in recent years in both the US and the European Union, mainly due to reduced plantings and adverse weather in some of the major producing and exporting countries. Wheat production in Australia has fallen a staggering 52%, its cereal production by 33%. Formerly the breadbasket of the world, its grain silos now stand virtually empty. A senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics and the Centre for Global Development in Washington, estimates that global warming will cause a 16% decline in global agricultural gross domestic product by 2020. He also projects output to fall by 20% in developing countries and by 6% in industrialised nations. Last year tied as the earth’s second warmest year in recorded history. Rising temperatures are already resulting in shorter picking seasons. In some cases fruit crops are maturing and rotting before they can be picked. Over recent years, warmer temperatures have resulted in fruit ripening early and falling prey to frosts, as was the case with fruit and nut crops in southern USA in 2007 and 2006. The more arid regions are already being tipped into the danger zone of drought, causing crop failure and loss of livestock. Asia’s melting glaciers may pose the BIGGEST THREAT TO FOOD PRODUCTION THE WORLD HAS EVER FACED. Developing countries are currently relying on band-aid-style trade strategies, which are already proving inadequate.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
At least 23 people in 14 states have been diagnosed with salmonellosis that was caused by the same strain of Salmonella that was found in the recently recalled unsweetened Puffed Rice and unsweetened Puffed Wheat Cereals produced by Malt-O-Meal.

Friday, April 11, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past,
worry about the future, or anticipate troubles
but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/10/08 -
5.1 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

VANUATU - The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre says the large earthquake recorded 70 kilometres southwest of Vanuatu caused only a small tsunami. "Small tsunami waves were observed in places like Vanuatu and New Caledonia, but we’re talking about waves that, peak to peak, were about 20 centimetres, and of course not destructive.” The 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck at 11:46 PM local time, the largest in a succession of three quakes within two hours. Disaster officials in Vanuatu say they’re yet to receive any reports of damage.

CALIFORNIA - Two-thirds of California residents rely on fresh water pumped from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, but the levees here are more than 100 years old and ready to give in. A failure would no doubt flood hundreds of acres across the north, but it could also compromise drinking water for the entire state. There are at least four major drivers of change that are seeking to undo these levees: the continued subsidence of the islands, the increasing force on the levees, sea level rise, and the fourth one is earthquakes. A very intense look by the state in the past year suggested that you will have catastrophic levee failure in this system even if you make all these investments in improving their performance due to high water. The reason? The foundations. To replace the foundations, to make them seismically safe, is an extraordinary cost. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CHILE - Melting ice in southern Chile caused a glacial lake to swell and then empty suddenly, sending a "tsunami" rolling through a river. No one was injured in the remote region. The melting of the Colonia glacier, which was blamed on rising world temperatures, filled the Cachet Lake and increased pressure on the ice sheet. The water bored a 5-mile tunnel through the glacier and finally emptied into the Baker River on April 6. "The remarkable thing is that the mass of water moved against the current of the river. It was a real river tsunami." The lake was nearly full again by late Wednesday. Temperatures were UNUSUALLY high during the recent Southern Hemisphere summer. The Tempano lake in Chile's Bernardo O'Higgins National Park abruptly disappeared last year, and has since recovered just some of its former volume.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRIA - A massive landslide on Thursday engulfed a road in the Austrian province of Salzburg as officials were still unable to confirm whether there had been any casualties. The mudflow engulfed a 100-metre stretch of a local road and covered it up to 10 metres deep in rocks, mud, trees and other debris. Authorities were unable to determine whether any persons or vehicles had been buried, as the mudflow was still moving and rocks were coming down from the mountain. "We expect further rockslides."

U.S. - It was another day of extreme weather on Thursday for residents in parts of the Southeast and West. Storms are making for potential flooding and heavy, springtime snow is expected in some areas. In Breckenridge, Texas, a suspected tornado left significant damage and some residents are thanking their lucky stars to be alive. At the storms' height, power was knocked out to more than 180,000 homes across Texas. That state is just one of many in the line of fire from a powerful storm system that's bringing with it the threat of tornadoes, golf ball sized hail and heavy rain. In L'noke County, Arkansas, the swollen waters forced residents from their homes and into makeshift shelters. (video)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Progress has slowed in the fight against foodborne illness since 2004, and none of the government's targets were reached in 2007. The best way to lower your risk of foodborne illness is to avoid consuming unpasteurized milk or raw or undercooked oysters, eggs, ground beef, or poultry. Also buy in-shell pasteurized eggs, high-pressure-treated oysters, and irradiated ground meat.

Rice prices are set to keep rising as demand for the staple is outstripping production. The price of rice has risen by as much as 70% during the past year, with increases accelerating in recent weeks. Several rice-producing countries have put curbs on exports in recent weeks. "Longer term demand-supply imbalance is clearly indicated by depletion of stock that has been going on for several years. We have been consuming more than what we have been producing and research to increase rice productivity is needed to address this imbalance." Rice is the staple food for about three billion people worldwide. The prices of soybeans, corn and wheat are also near historic highs. [Site note - My local Cub Foods currently has bare shelves where the large sacks of rice should be.]

Thursday, April 10, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
We all agree that pessimism is the mark of superior intellect.
John Galbraith

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/9/08 -
5.2 VANUATU
6.3 VANUATU
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS
7.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS

Curious gaps in clouds may provide early warning of an earthquake, scientists believe. Researchers spotted UNUSUAL cloud formations above an active fault in Iran before two large earthquakes struck the region. It appeared to be more than coincidence, and now scientists are investigating whether clouds can predict major quakes. Two geophysicists in China noticed a peculiar gap in the clouds covering southern Iran in satellite images in December 2004. The gap stretched for hundreds of kilometres, and precisely matched the position of a main fault line. It was visible for several hours and remained in the same place, even though the surrounding clouds were moving. At the same time, thermal images of the ground showed that the temperature had risen along the fault. Sixty-nine days later, on February 22, 2005, a 6.4 magnitude earthquake hit the area killing more than 600 people. In December 2005 the phenomenon was seen again at the same location, a gap once again appearing in the clouds for a few hours. Sixty-four days later a magnitude six earthquake shook the region. The scientists suggested that an eruption of hot gases from within the fault may have caused water in the clouds to evaporate. They believe if recognisable cloud formations precede large quakes they could be used as an early warning system. Other experts are sceptical. "There is no physical model that explains why something would suddenly occur two months before an earthquake, and then shut off and not occur again."

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Indonesians living near a devastating mud volcano that has spewed sludge for nearly two years say they now have to contend with flammable gas. Highly concentrated methane is pouring into nearby residential areas. Some locals are too afraid to cook at home in case they cause an explosion. Officials are determining whether the gas originates from the mud volcano, or is produced from sewage in the pipes. The mudflow, near Indonesia's second-largest city of Surabaya in East Java, has displaced about 15,000 households since it began spewing in May 2006.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Asian tsunami a once in a decade event - "People thought the tsunami was the worst disaster since biblical times. Terrible as it was, there is a similar event every ten years since the 19th century. Particularly in Northern Australia and the Asia-Pacific, disasters will continue to occur." A practised and managed response is important to deal with all the issues surrounding a large scale catastrophic event. "There are trauma issues, humanitarian issues, there's issues around infectious disease emergencies, there are issues around mental health, there 's issues around water sanitation and there is local arrangements, the national arrangements and also the international arrangements that need to be considered."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

Long-range hurricane forecasts - In the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the worst in recorded history, the most famous of hurricane forecasters was way off the mark when he predicted there would be 15 tropical storms. There were 28. In fact, the past three seasons were a bust for the Colorado State University prediction team founded by Bill Gray, the pioneer of long-range hurricane forecasts, and others who dare to foray into the unpredictable world of cyclones. The failures have left storm researchers and emergency managers asking themselves if there's any point to the seasonal forecasts that get so much attention in the media. Those who communicate storm dangers to the public say their work is complicated by the seasonal outlooks. Seasonal forecasts are only a best guess at the big picture. The chance of a hurricane hitting any one particular area is actually very small, yet if just one hits you, it's a bad season. But when predictions for a busy season are wrong, people inevitably grumble about having prepared for nothing. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is going to downplay its forecast this year and will emphasize instead whether the season will be above or below the long-range averages, rather than the actual number of storms. An average season has about 10 tropical storms, of which about six become hurricanes.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW YORK - The Great Sacandaga Lake is about a month ahead of schedule and is nearly full. The water level is at RECORD HIGH FOR THE APRIL 10 DATE. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch Wednesday morning that runs through Saturday afternoon, and there’s rain in the forecast late this week.

AUSTRALIA - Parts of NSW have received their heaviest rainfall in three years. Evans Head, in the state's north, was hit by 153mm in the 24 hours to 9am today - its heaviest rainfall in three years and ITS WETTEST APRIL DAY ON RECORD. Nearby Woodburn received 103mm in the same period, its heaviest rainfall in two years and HEAVIEST APRIL RAINFALL IN 18 YEARS. The heavy rain was caused by winds blowing off the Tasman Sea.

BIRD DIE-OFFS -
SOUTH AFRICA - Tens of thousands of starving swallows simply dropped dead out of the sky in South Africa's Limpopo province after a cold snap stopped them from feeding. The birds fell victim to plunging temperatures towards the end of March and were unable to feed properly as they prepared for their annual migration to Europe. "The tens of thousands of birds were falling down everywhere and just dying." Farmers in Limpopo had at first feared the birds were being poisoned. The dead swallows were only a small proportion of the mass migration which began on March 28. A scientist suggested that humans could try and prevent what was becoming an annual tragedy by addressing the root causes of climate change.

AUSTRALIA - Almost three-quarters of Australia's migratory and resident shorebirds have disappeared over the past 25 years, a study has revealed. The bird populations are in decline because their habitats are disappearing in Australia, South-East Asia, China and Russia. Around two million migratory birds, from 36 species, are currently gathering around Broome in Western Australia before making a 10,000km annual journey to their northern hemisphere breeding grounds. A large-scale aerial survey of eastern Australia shows migratory shorebird populations were once much larger and have plunged by 73% between 1983 and 2006. During that same period, the populations of Australia's 15 resident shorebird species have dropped by 81%. "The wetlands and resting places that they rely on for food and recuperation are shrinking virtually all the way along their migration path." Key staging areas for the birds are the shores of the Yellow Sea, between China and Korea, which are inhabited by 600 million people. Agriculture and industry continue to encroach on the tidal feeding grounds of the Yellow Sea, where migratory birds build up their body reserves before embarking on the next part of their annual journey.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Human failure is a bigger killer than nature when disasters hit the world, according to a new report. A study found the choices of politicians, poor decisions and bad management were to blame for the worst catastrophes. 43% of people affected by natural disasters live in south Asia. When natural shocks such as cyclones or tidal waves hit Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal or Sri Lanka, deprivation in these areas is likely to turn events into a humanitarian crisis. Poverty and inequality make natural disasters much more lethal. "The Kashmir earthquake killed 75,000 people. That's more than 12 times as many people as died in Japan's Great Hanshin earthquake, which was of similar strength. Why? Poverty, exclusion, inequality and unsuitable policies raise risks for poor people, women, and minorities especially."

Wednesday, April 9, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost;
that is where they should be. Now put foundations under them.
Henry David Thoreau

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there have been several large quakes in the LOYALTY ISLANDS:
A 6.4 magnitude quake was followed 10 minutes later by a 5.8 aftershock. A 7.5 quake came about 80 minutes later and is the largest quake in the world so far this year. There was no threat of an ocean-wide tsunami, though a local event was possible.
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.2
7.5
5.1
5.8
6.4

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/8/08 -
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 GUAM REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

TENNESSEE - In less than 24 hours, a swarm of 28 small earthquakes was recorded near Ridgely, Tennessee, a city 109 miles southeast of Cape Girardeau. Ridgely is at "a junction of two major faults in the New Madrid seismic zone." Multiple earthquakes are common near Ridgely, but are limited to four or five events. Every 20 years or so, a big swarm, such as the one that started Saturday, occurs. It is not clear if the weight of water from recent rains caused the quakes, but scientists are studying the possibilities. "Certainly the occurrence of earthquakes is controlled by the amount of overburden — how much weight is above it." But swarms have occurred in both wet and dry weather. The Ridgely quakes occurred about four miles under the ground's surface. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the central Mississippi Valley is the most earthquake-prone region of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Scientists who follow the small Midwestern quakes linked to the New Madrid fault think in terms of a great quake as a magnitude 8 or greater, which would devastate multiple states. "We have to plan for the worst-case scenarios, but it doesn't do a whole lot of good to scare the public with 8.4 when we're not ready for a magnitude 6." The 28 quakes over the weekend weren't felt by most people.

VOLCANOES -
ICELAND - scientists recently discovered a more than 50-square-kilometer volcano off Reykjanes peninsula, southwest Iceland, and expect it to erupt at any time. In the center of the volcano there is a caldera measuring ten kilometers in diameter. “People shouldn’t be surprised if there would be an extensive volcanic eruption underwater there soon. Nothing has happened for hundreds of years and it is in fact only a matter of time before there will be an eruption." Since the volcano is at a depth of 1,500 meters eruptions would not have any effect on Iceland, except perhaps causing earthquakes. The volcano’s discovery is considered significant because geographers believed it couldn’t exist in that area. “Such large volcanoes are not located on oceanic ridges. They are always drifting apart and that prevents a volcano from being created. This is why the volcano’s existence came as a surprise." In summer 2009 they plan use a small submarine to undertake more detailed research of the underwater volcano.

HAWAII - Volcanoes National Park closed this morning after park officials feared the combined emissions from Pu'u O'o and Halema'uma'u crater would be significant hazards as the wind shifts to the west at about noon today. That evacuation included the Volcano House hotel within the park. A voluntary evacuation advisory last night covered the Mauna Loa Estates, Ohia Estates and Volcano Golf Course subdivisions as well as the Volcano Village and Keauhou Ranch areas. Computer models of the weather patterns and volcanic emissions suggest that air quality in the Volcano Village area could reach the highest "purple" level today under the color coded chart used to warn the public of the short-term air quality risks. When conditions for an area are designated as purple, all people are advised to avoid outdoor activity, and people with respiratory problems are advised to leave the area. Hilo and many Puna residents awoke this morning to find their homes enveloped in a thick layer of vog. The wind is expected to push a relatively narrow plume of sulfur dioxide at levels more than double the federal ambient air quality standards out to about 30 miles west of Halema'uma'u crater. Inside Volcanoes Park, "the LEVELS OF SUFUR DIOXIDE ARE HIGHER THAN THEY'VE EVER BEEN HERE. They're way above the red level, extremely unhealthy. The park will reopen when the tradewinds come back." Visibility is poor on the Chain of Craters Road. All 180 park service employees, except for emergency responders, also have been evacuated. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - A FREAK hail storm that lasted only half an hour has killed five people, injured 66 others and damaged thousands of homes in central China. The storm, with wind gusts of over 100km/h hit Dangyang city, Hubei province, in the early hours of the morning and doused it with 6cm of rain. More than 4,600 homes collapsed, were flooded, or lost roofs under the onslaught. Thousands of trees and electricity poles were uprooted and crops destroyed. More rain was forecast in the area for today.

ARKANSAS - A front that was moving into Arkansas on Tuesday, bringing rain and thunderstorms to already inundated areas, was forecast to park over the state today, where it will bring even more rain. The National Weather Service says conditions will deteriorate on Thursday, with severe storms across the state and isolated tornadoes. Forecasters say the outbreak could be on a scale with the system that spawned 10 tornadoes last Thursday in central Arkansas. Flooding continued to be a problem at spots in east Arkansas. If rain in the forecast falls where it enters the Black, Spring and White rivers, flooding to match that of a few weeks ago could be the result. Tuesday morning, Norfork Lake had reached a RECORD HIGH of 579.32 feet above sea level. The previous record was 579 feet set in 1973. Georgetown in northeast Arkansas has been surrounded by water for about three weeks. The White River at Georgetown has a flood stage of 21 feet. On Tuesday, the river was at 26.8 feet.
For the past few weeks, Arkansas has seen massive amounts of rain that has caused the flooding of both the Black and White Rivers. These floods have devastated the areas, leaving families displaced due to their damaged homes. Schools have been closed, and roads have become rivers. Many people have had to find new routes to get to where they're going. According to reports, there is about $9 million worth of damage to public property across the state. Also, countless homes have been severely damaged in Jackson, Greene, Lawrence, and Craighead counties.

MISSISSIPPI - More restrictions for traffic on the Mississippi River at Vicksburg might be ordered today after a fourth tow hit the U.S. 80 bridge Sunday, broke apart and sent half its barges careening downstream and seriously imperiled the crew. Barge traffic restrictions have been in place for more than a week, both on the number of barges that can be cabled together for southbound trips and on the times loads may pass under bridges in Vicksburg, Greenville and Memphis. Swirling and cross currents have now sent four tows into bridge pilings in 12 days. Another tow broke up about 15 miles upstream. No injuries have been reported, but three barges have sunk. Some barges were loaded with corn and others with steel. "The current is so fast right now, we just can't get to some barges we have tied off to trees down river." In another crisis area, water continues to rise on farmland inside the levees built to protect the Mississippi Delta, the consequence of heavy rains Friday and Saturday. Ford subdivision north of Vicksburg continued to take on water over the weekend. Several streets are already under water, which has forced many residents to evacuate. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest at 49 feet on Sunday, the second highest level on record. Flood stage is 43 feet. (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ASIA - Extreme cold is not new to Central Asia. For example, the average January temperature in the highlands of Tajikistan is -20° C, and temperatures can drop as low as -60° C near the Eastern Parmirs. Normal winter temperatures range from -2° to 2° C in the more populated lowlands. However, this year's average winter temperature was an astounding 15°C below freezing in the lowlands. The people of Uzbekistan are also accustomed to harsh winters, with winter temperatures typically ranging between 8° and 0°C in the South, and -2 to -10° C in the mountainous North. Yet this winter, the average temperature dropped to as low as 20° C below zero, making it the COLDEST WINTER IN FOUR DECADES in Uzbekistan. Fraught with ABNORMALLY EXTREME and sustained below-freezing temperatures, Central Asia's 60 million people have been left struggling to find refuge amidst deteriorating utilities and pipelines, which sparked energy shortages this winter. This winter has highlighted the need for better preparations for future winters and unfavourable agro-meteorological fluctuations in Central Asia. Already coping with the surging prices of energy and food since the summer of 2007, Central Asia's poverty and food insecurity have been further exacerbated by the harsh winter, particularly in impoverished Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as war-torn Afghanistan. The current food shortage has been intensified by the soaring price of wheat (Afghanistan's staple food), which rose by 70 percent in the past year. The brutally cold winter has therefore plunged Afghanistan into a humanitarian crisis. Outside of major cities, roads have been closed due to blizzards and heavy snowfall, and people have had limited access food, medicine, clothing and other supplies. By early March, the number deaths related to cold, avalanches, and snowfall was estimated at over 1,000. Nearly half the deaths, 462, have been in the hard-hit western province of Herat, and dozens of people there have had hands or feet amputated due to frostbite. Furthermore, Afghanistan's livestock sector has been very seriously affected. Over 300,000 animals have been killed by the extreme cold and inaccessible roads have made animal feed scarce.
Due to the unusual and sustained cold, the snow did not melt to refill Tajikistan's reservoirs, leaving the state with inadequate levels of water to generate power. When Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan drastically curbed energy supplies to Tajikistan to cope with their own spikes in electricity usage, and due to Tajikistan's $7 million debt to Uzbekistan, thousands of residents were left to cope with severe rationing and in some cases, no electricity and heat at all in extreme cold conditions. Moreover, the water supply system froze, leaving thousands of families in the Tajik capital Dushanbe and other areas without safe drinking water. Over 70 percent of the crops in the Mountainous Badakhshan Autonomous Region were destroyed as a result of precipitation, cold weather and natural disasters. 25 percent of the potato seeds and 10 percent of the saplings were also destroyed. So far, total losses to the state are estimated at $850 million while the country's annual budget revenues are only $585 million. Furthermore, water supplies and sewage systems had were significantly damaged over the winter, causing a serious threat to public health.
With temperatures beginning to rise, destructive floods have been plaguing Central Asia. The Shardara Reservoir in Kazakhstan has been overflowing despite efforts to divert some of the water into canals leading into the neighbouring Kzyl-Orda Province, which is having its own difficulties with high water levels. Authorities are now estimating some 200,000 people from southern Kazakhstan will be evacuated temporarily before the water recedes. By February, early flooding in southern Kazakhstan had displaced 12,700 people and destroyed farmland, roads, bridges and schools. In Tajikistan, snow levels in regions below 2,500 meters are nearly 20% more than normal. More than half a million Tajiks could soon face food shortages as warmer temperatures lead to intense rains, avalanches, mudflows, and floods. Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are is also on high alert, with flooding expected due to ABNORMALLY heavy rains and snowmelt.

MINNESOTA - Monday was going to be the day the Virginia, Minn., high school golf team practiced outside for the first time this year. But it's going to be tough putting for a while around Virginia and much of northern Minnesota, where more than 2 feet of wet snow over the weekend has smothered hopes of spring's return. Virginia reported 32 inches of new snow since Saturday night. More than 2 feet was reported from Babbitt to Grand Rapids, the length of the Iron Range. To the west, Park Rapids and Bemidji got about 20 inches. Dropped by a slow-moving low pressure system that drew moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and mixed it with cold air, the snowfall in many places exceeded the Twin Cities' single-storm record of 28.4 inches, set by the 1991 Halloween blizzard. But it did not threaten the state's single April day snowfall record of 28 inches set at the Pigeon River Bridge at the Canadian border on April 5, 1933. The storm's snow-to-water ratio of about 10 to 1 was very heavy for Minnesota, where the ratios can run up to 30 to 1 or more, in colder weather. But the moisture should be welcome in much of north central Minnesota where two years of dryness had continued through the winter. More snow, possibly up to 12 more inches, is expected Thursday and Friday.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The less you know about an opportunity, the more attractive it is.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/7/08 -
5.6 VANUATU

TEXAS - A minor earthquake struck two counties close to San Antonio, Texas on Monday, receiving a 3.7 on the Richter Scale.

ALASKA - Several earthquakes have jolted sections of Alaska’s remote Aleutian Islands. Three light quakes struck early Sunday morning. A moderate earthquake, with a preliminary magnitude of 5.1 occurred late Saturday night in the Rat Islands region of the Aleutians.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - Seaside visitors diced with death as 30ft waves battered the North Yorkshire coast during a weekend of blizzards and snowstorms. Coastguards issued a warning after waves crashed over the sea wall at Sandsend into the path of those admiring the view. Showers - typical for April but colder - will continue throughout the week with rain and hail forecast. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MISSOURI - RAINFALL RECORDS WERE SET in March. Springfield received 9.40 inches of rain in March, easily breaking the record of 9.09 set in 1935. The total rainfall for the first three months is more than twice as much as normal. So far, Springfield has received 19.33 inches of rain compared to the normal amount of 8.21 inches. Last year, Springfield received 9.16 in the same time period.

FLORIDA - The showers over the weekend brought in RECORD-BREAKING PRECIPITATION amounts to Orlando. The record rainfall of 2.11 inches was reported on Sunday.
The 3.58 inches of rain that pummeled Vero Beach Sunday WASHED AWAY THE RECORD of 0.51 inch set in 1991.
The rain also SET A RECORD in Tampa Sunday.

NORWAY - Landslide spurs evacuation - Eight persons living in two flats in Røyken, west of Oslo, were evacuated during the night after a landslide near their building. The new building in the town center of Røyken was evacuated around 10 pm Sunday but residents were later allowed to return home. "It immediately looked like it was just the top layer of the hillside that slid because of rain. But for safety's sake, we evacuated the residents and called in a geologist." Constant rain on Sunday and already-wet ground has boosted the danger of landslides all over the country. Some experts fear more floods and landslides in the months to come. Meanwhile, emergency workers located a third body on Monday in the wreckage of a residential building in Ålesund that was hit by a landslide nearly two weeks ago. They continued to search for two more residents of the building who are missing and presumed dead.

INDIA - Unseasonal rainfall and an extended winter could cut down the production of salt in the country by about 14% making the commodity dearer for the consumer and adversely affecting exports. Dry and sunny climate is essential for salt production and the western arid region of Gujarat along with 1,600 km long coastline provide a conducive environment, making Gujarat the largest producer of salt in the country. The state contributes nearly 70% of the total salt produced in the country. The state had extended monsoon as well as extended winter this year which has resulted in such a situation. Unseasonal rains were also witnessed in the state on Sunday which is going to affect salt production.
Vegetables costlier by almost 50% - The unseasonal rains and water shortage in some parts of the state have resulted in prices of vegetables going up in the wholesale markets.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BEER will be short supply, more expensive and may taste different as climate change affects barley production, a scientist says. Drought conditions in parts of Australia where malting barley is grown are likely to get worse. Malting barley production in Australia was likely to be hit hard in parts of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and NSW. The dry areas of Australia would become drier and water shortages would get worse. "It will mean either there will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up." By 2100, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases - measured in equivalent amounts of carbon dioxide - would be double, and possibly four times pre-industrial levels, leading to further climate warming.

YEMEN - Making ends meet has become especially difficult for Yemen’s impoverished population since the prices of basic commodities, such as wheat and fuel, have risen. In the southern region of Yemen protests and riots, which began last week, continued over the weekend in several locations. The largest protest took place in Tour Al-Baja, where thousands of armed men demonstrated in front of the municipality building and in the local market. One rioter was killed and a few others were wounded last week, during the height of the unrest in the country’s largely poor south. Rioters attacked buildings of the government and the ruling party. Hundreds of people have been arrested for involvement in the riots, including opposition politicians. The army has sent tanks and armored vehicles into the troubled areas to quell the violence.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

The first of three US-funded supply stockpiles aimed at helping authorities in Asia stamp out avian influenza outbreaks opened near Bangkok March 25. The stockpile initially contains 45,000 protective suits, 400 decontamination suits, 10 laboratory specimen kits, and other equipment totaling $548,300. USAID officials said the supplies, stored in a warehouse near Bangkok's international airport, could be airlifted to affected areas within 24 hours. Continuing outbreaks in the region raise the risk of the H5N1 virus mutating into a form that could be transmitted among humans.
19-year-old Egyptian dies of avian flu.
India, South Korea, China report H5N1 outbreaks.
H5N1 resurfaces in South Korean poultry
Swiss find H5N1 in wild duck; India has new outbreak.
Ducks, rice, people add up to risk of H5N1 outbreaks.
US has enough H5N1 vaccine for 13 million people.
Turkey, Laos report more H5N1 in poultry.
Saudi Arabia, Tibet reported H5N1 outbreaks in January.
H5N1 spread to more districts in India, Bangladesh in January.
H5N1 reappeared in Ukraine in January.
Deaths rose in Indonesia in January.
Avian flu resurfaced in Iran in January.
H5N1 hit mute swans at British tourist site in January.
Israel among countries reporting new H5N1 outbreaks in January.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
- Malt-O-Meal announced that it is voluntarily recalling some packages of its unsweetened Puffed Rice and unsweetened Puffed Wheat Cereals because they may have the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.

Climate Change Threatens Millions - Millions of people could face poverty, disease and hunger as a result of rising temperatures and changing rainfall expected to hit poor countries the hardest, the World Health Organization warned Monday. Malaria-carrying mosquitoes represent the clearest sign that global warming has begun to impact human health. They are now found in cooler climates such as South Korea and the highlands of Papua New Guinea. Warmer weather means that mosquitoes' breeding cycles are shortening, allowing them to multiply at a much faster rate, posing an even greater threat of disease. The exceptionally high number cases in Asia of dengue fever, which is also spread by mosquitoes, could be due to rising temperatures and rainfall. "The effects of this phenomenon on the global climate system could be abrupt or even irreversible, sparing no country and causing more frequent and more intense heat waves, rain storms, tropical cyclones and surges in sea level." Unusual, unexpected climate patterns — too much rain or too little — will have an impact on food production, especially irrigated crops such as rice, and can cause unemployment, economic upheavals and political unrest. As people move, so do diseases, and there has been an unprecedented level of human migration. Governments need to strengthen current systems providing clean water, immunizations, disease surveillance, mosquito control and disaster preparedness.

Monday, April 7, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What we call the freedom of the individual is not just the luxury
of one intellectual to write what he likes to write,
but his being a voice which can speak for those who are silent.
Stephen Spender

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/6/08 -
5.3 VANUATU
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

FIJI - More tropical cyclones are expected to form in the region before the end of the cyclone season and the Nadi Weather office has called on people to be on standby. The cyclones are expected to indirectly affect Fiji until the cyclone season ends later this month. There have been seven cyclones reported in the region since the start of the cyclone season in November.

OMAN - Widespread rumours of a storm like last year’s Cyclone Gonu about to hit Oman have been dismissed as baseless by the authorities. The Directorate-General of Meteorology and Civil Aviation said authentic information about the weather should only be obtained from the official source — the Civil Aviation Affairs Department, which publishes its reports through radio, TV and the print media. Civil Aviation Affairs Department offices work 24 hours a day to follow up weather conditions in the Sultanate. Any weather situation that may affect the country would be officially announced.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - FREAK hailstorm hits harvesting - The UNUSUAL weather has not only impeded harvesting that was expected to pick up momentum this week, but has also damaged crops. It is a bad beginning of the harvesting season for rabi crops, especially wheat — the most vital crop vis-a-vis the food security of the country. Raging winds, accompanied by moderate-to-heavy rain in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan have played havoc on crops. Reports from the countryside say Saturday’s hailstorm hit different parts of Moga and Muktsar, causing considerable damage to crops. It is not clear yet how widespread the hailstorm was.

U.S. - Flood Season begins UNUSUALLY early across heartland - The flood season in the nation's midsection started early this year, and there's no letup in sight, spurring federal, state and local officials to brace for what looks likely to be an unusually watery spring. At least 16 deaths were linked to heavy flooding across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma and other states in March; another was tied to flooding Friday in Kentucky. Last week, snow that could set off more flooding blanketed parts of the Midwest. And Kentucky and parts of Arkansas and Missouri that are struggling to recover from previous deluges remained vulnerable to the threat of weekend rain. State and local agencies and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been ramping up their readiness efforts: stocking up sandbags and other emergency supplies; inspecting levees for groundhog holes and errant trees that can take root and weaken them; and holding regular multi-agency meetings. This year's first flood in Missouri came a month earlier than usual. In the Midwest, flood season started before winter's end as heavy snow alternated with warm weather. "If rain falls on top of snow, the risk of flooding is much greater than any other time of year."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
PAKISTAN - Six students were killed and four sustained severe injuries when they buried alive in an avalanche while going to Kala Dhaka from Dilbhori. The 10 students of Madrassa Darul Uloom, Islamia Dilbhori were going to their village and were buried at the place of Ghul. Six students were died on the spot while 4 injured students were taken out by the local people. The injured were not shifted to the hospital as roads were closed due to landsliding.

BRITAIN - April snow showers fell across much of the UK yesterday, blanketing parts of the country in unseasonal white and causing chaos on the roads. Much of England gripped by unseasonally cold spring temperatures and heavy snowfalls. There were reports of falls of up to 8cm in large parts of southern England and temperature as low as -2C. The heart of London was also coated in snow, a scene locals described as "BIZARRE" for this time of year. "Normally it only snows in London once every three years or so, and that's in winter. For such snow to fall in London in April it is bizarre."

CANADA - A combination of unpredictable weather and heavy snowfall this past winter is causing monumental headaches for maple syrup producers. Producers in areas around Quebec City and eastern Ontario are digging out pipes buried beneath two metres of snow. Freezing temperatures mean the sap is rock-solid in some places. Quebec accounts for nearly 80 per cent of maple syrup production in the world. But low production in that province combined with growing exports have burned through massive syrup stockpiles amassed during years of bumper yields. The cupboards are now bare. 2007 production was among the worst in 40 years. Producers say they are weeks behind on the 2008 harvest. Ontario producers are similarly snowed under. 90% of production is collected in the last week of March and the first three weeks of April. "What we need is freezing at night and temperatures above zero during the day." The ideal climatic situation is about -5 C at night and about +5 C during the day. "But if there's a big warm-up, it could also mean problems for the producers," as a quick melt darkens syrup and diminishes quality.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - There has been a jump in the area of New South Wales affected by drought. Latest figures show almost 43% of the state is now in drought, up 3% since February. Farmers are anxiously awaiting decent rain so they can plant winter crops.

ISRAEL - The lack of water, which has hit agriculture in the south of the country particularly hard, is stinging farmers' profits and is liable to force up prices of fresh produce. By next month, what is currently termed 'low rainfall' could turn into a drought year. The lack of rain means a 70-percent decline in wheat yields this year. Wheat is not usually irrigated artificially and depends on rain alone. Nearly 100 million cubic meters have been cut from the allocations of fresh water for agriculture - from 550 million cubic meters to 454 million. Ministry officials cannot predict exactly how the cuts will affect crop yields. "We used about 15 percent of our total allocation in the past several months that we hadn't planned for. In the end we'll have to reduce plantings." Deciding which crops not to plant is no easy matter. One option is to put in crops that require less water, but they are less profitable. Hothouse growing is another option, but while it uses less water it is not suitable for every crop. "Reducing water allocations dramatically in the future, if it comes to that, will change the face of Israeli agriculture." Some propose a reduction in field crops for a period of three or four years. "It could change the color of the land, with large areas that are no longer green."

TURKEY - last year's drought caused YTL 5 billion in agricultural production losses. The drought affected grain production the most and wheat production in Turkey declined by 14 percent and barley production decreased by 23.5 percent. Other agricultural produce did not experience dramatic drops.

SPAIN - After months of low rainfall, parched Catalonia has had to appeal to Madrid for help - and now ecologists fear the costs of a long-term solution. The country is struggling to deal with the worst drought since the Forties: reservoirs stand at 46% of capacity and rainfall over the past 18 months has been 40% below average. Catalonia, in the parched north east, has been worst affected, with reservoirs standing at just a fifth of capacity. The president of the Catalan regional government had hoped that water would be transferred to Catalonia from the river Segre in neighbouring Aragon. But Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero refused. So in an emergency measure, the Catalan regional government is planning to ship in water from one of Spain's driest regions, Almería in the south east, and from Marseille in France. It may bring in more water by train. Spain already has 950 desalination plants which produce 2 million cubic metres of water a day, enough to supply 10 million people. Another is due to open near Barcelona next year. The Socialists claim that the plants will end Spain's almost yearly scramble to stop its reserves drying up. But the Spanish Association for the Technological Treatment of Water says that each desalination plant indirectly produces one million tonnes of CO2 a year and contributes to climate change.

Global warming is making many people anxious. Constant reports about the dangers of climate change add to the burdens already felt by many people and distress farmers. "While it is clear that the wellbeing of many farming communities will be directly affected by more frequent droughts, the mental health impacts of climate change will not be restricted to rural areas. People with depression and anxiety have a low threshold to taking on the negative information about climate change . . . which feeds into a hopelessness about the future." Healthcare professionals need to brace for a wave of climate change mental illness.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Monsanto already dominates America’s food chain with its genetically modified seeds. Now it has targeted milk production. For centuries — millennia — farmers have saved seeds from season to season: they planted in the spring, harvested in the fall, then reclaimed and cleaned the seeds over the winter for re-planting the next spring. Monsanto has turned this ancient practice on its head. Monsanto developed G.M. seeds that would resist its own herbicide, Roundup, offering farmers a convenient way to spray fields with weed killer without affecting crops. Monsanto then patented the seeds. For nearly all of its history the United States Patent and Trademark Office had refused to grant patents on seeds, viewing them as life-forms with too many variables to be patented. But in 1980 the U.S. Supreme Court turned seeds into widgets, laying the groundwork for a handful of corporations to begin taking control of the world’s food supply. Just as frightening as the corporation’s tactics – ruthless legal battles against small farmers – is its decades-long history of toxic contamination. For most of its history Monsanto was a chemical giant, producing some of the most toxic substances ever created, residues from which have left us with some of the most polluted sites on earth. The company now profoundly influences — and one day may virtually control — what we put on our tables. So far, the company has produced G.M. seeds for soybeans, corn, canola, and cotton. Many more products have been developed or are in the pipeline, including seeds for sugar beets and alfalfa. The company is also seeking to extend its reach into milk production by marketing an artificial growth hormone for cows that increases their output, and it is taking aggressive steps to put those who don’t want to use growth hormone at a commercial disadvantage. Even as the company is pushing its G.M. agenda, Monsanto is buying up conventional-seed companies.

Rice prices rose more than 10 per cent on Friday to a fresh all-time high as African countries joined south-east Asian importers in the race to head off social unrest by securing supplies from the handful of exporters still selling the grain in the international market. The rise in prices – 50% in two weeks – threatens upheaval and has resulted in riots and soldiers overseeing supplies in some emerging countries, where the grain is a staple food for about 3 billion people.

EGYPTIANS angry with the government about high prices set fire to shops and two schools in a Nile Delta textile town after police thwarted plans for a general strike and countrywide protests. Egypt's urban consumer inflation jumped to an 11-month high of 12.1% in the year to February. Higher prices for food have hit the poorest Egyptians hardest. Police fought battles through the streets of Mahalla el-Kubra with the protesters, led by textile workers who tried to go on strike for more pay to compensate for inflation. The demonstrators set ablaze a primary school, a preparatory school and a travel agency, among other shops in the working-class town, and stopped an incoming train by putting blazing tyres on the railway tracks. Police fired rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse the protests. About 40 people were injured and hundreds of others had breathing problems from gas inhalation. Protesters threw stones at police, attacked police vehicles and tore down the posters of the ruling party's candidates in Tuesday's local elections.

India has not yet experienced riots over rising food prices that have hit other countries like Zimbabwe or Argentina. But what is worrying everybody is that the current rise in inflation is driven by high food prices. In the capital, Delhi, milk costs 11% more than last year. Edible oil prices have climbed by a whopping 40% over the same period. More crucially, rice prices have risen by 20% and prices of certain lentils by 18%. Rice and lentils comprise the staple diet for many Indians. Roughly one out of four Indians lives on less than $1 a day and three out of four earn $2 or less. All of which is bad news for ruling politicians because the poor in India vote in much larger numbers than the affluent. Per capita output of cereals (wheat and rice) at present is more or less at the level that prevailed in the 1970s. The problem acquires a serious dimension since farming provides livelihood to around 60% of India's 1.1 billion people. The crisis in farms is exemplified by the state of the country's cereal stocks. Six years ago, the stocks were at record levels. Stocks have come down over the past three years because of low production and exports. The problem has been compounded by the fact that whenever India has imported wheat in recent months, world prices of wheat have shot up. Indian farmers are particularly vulnerable since 60% per cent of the country's total cropped area is not irrigated. They are also dependent on the four-month-long monsoon during which period 80% of the year's total rainfall takes place. The crisis in agriculture has been manifest in the growing incidence of farmers taking their own lives. There has never been an acute shortage of food in India, not even during the infamous famine in Bengal in 1943 in which more than 1.5 million people are estimated to have died of starvation. The problem then - and now - is access to food at affordable prices.

Sunday, April 6, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
You have to take great risks to achieve failure.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/5/08 -
None 5.0 or above.
4/4/08 -
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea Volcano continues activity - The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says the emmissions have decreased substantially but the level is still high enough to remain on the alert.

Warmer World Could Be A More Explosive One - if new research is to be believed, global warming may have an impact on volcanic eruptions. The largest ice cap in Iceland is disappearing at a rate of 5 cubic kilometers per year. Naturally, when ice disappears, the added weight it forced upon the crust below it disappears as well. As a result, this is increasing the rate at which the rocks under the ice sheet melt into magma. The thinning of ice over volcanic areas will also have another effect, one which is more widespread. As the amount of weight on top of the crust diminishes – or at the very least changes – subsequent geological stresses will also change and increase the chance of eruptions. “Under the ice’s weight, the crust bends and as you melt the ice the crust will bounce up again.” The shifting stresses could even cause eruptions in unexpected places. Rising sea-levels caused by melting ice caps will also increase volcanic activity. “We are going to see a massive increase in volcanic activity globally. If we look back at previous warm periods that is what happened.”

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - wild weather on April 1st with winds gusting to more than 70 knots was THE STRONGEST IN MEMORY in Melbourne's vast Port Phillip Bay. Five metre waves crashed over the Mornington pier and more than twenty boats were smashed onto the rocks or the beach. A large motor boat sank at its mooring and the pier was damaged. 'It was THE WORST SEAS EVER SEEN at Mornington'. The Weather Bureau said the magnitude of the storms was UNUSUAL for this time of year. A burst of cold air from above the Southern Ocean had collided with seasonally warm northerly winds to trigger the event. The genesis was cyclone Pancho that rounded the south-western corner of Australia, causing mayhem across south-eastern Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Two people were killed in Melbourne and at the height of the storm the State Emergency Service took distress calls at the rate of one every seven seconds, as some gusts reached cyclone force. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Steady downpours for two weeks have triggered massive floods in northern Brazil killing at least 15 people and forcing 50,000 to abandon their homes. The victims drowned when the River Paraiba burst its banks and the walls of a medium-sized dam cracked in the normally arid state of Paraiba. The flood waters, caused by torrential rains, have also destroyed corn and bean crops, and washed away roads. (map)

INDIA - The widespread rainfall in the dry month of April is RATHER RARE. The rain was attributed to Western Disturbances over Rajasthan and west Pakistan. It comes at the back of a freakish winter which saw low temperatures in places like Mumbai and Kolkata, where weather normally remains moderate through the year. Experts say incidences of extreme weather are increasing in India. This is part of the wider process of climate change though no single event can be pinned to it. "We are seeing unusual weather this year." "I expect the summer to have spells of extreme dry heat and dust storms in northern India, with short intervals of rain. Such extremities can be attributed to circulation anomalies induced by abnormal temperatures over parts of the globe." There's also evidence of change in the rainfall distribution pattern. Spells of heavy rainfall are increasing and those of light rain decreasing. In the 1950s, 45 heavy rain events occurred on an average during a season; this has now increased to 65-70. The total rainfall, however, remains the same.

AUSTRALIA - Perth receives RECORD EARLY APRIL RAINFALL - The metropolitan area was drenched with 90.6 millimetres of rain in the first five days of the month. The previous record of 45.2mm was set in 1964.

U.S. - Patterns in the Midwest this spring are eerily reminiscent of 1993 and 1994, back-to-back years of serious flooding. The great flood of 1993 caused nearly $20 billion of economic damage, damaging or destroying more than 50,000 homes and killing at least 38 people. Parallels this year include abnormally high levels of precipitation in late winter and early spring, and early flooding in various regions. In March, Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois and the Ohio River experienced flooding. A still-unknown factor is the effect of the snow melt from upstream states on river systems this spring and summer. Wisconsin, for example, had record amounts of snow this winter. Despite the similarity in conditions and periods of flooding nearly every year after those flood years more than a decade ago, one thing Midwesterners have not learned is "geologic reality". "When people build commercial or residential real estate in flood plains, when they build on sink holes, when they build on fault lines, when they build on the hillsides in L.A. that are going to burn and burn, over and over again, they're ignoring geologic reality." "Building a levee for a community simply 'certifies' that this is a great place to build more things. The Corps of Engineers will come in and claim it's a 500-year levee, which is a claim they cannot make, yet routinely do. That just encourages more infrastructure to move into these areas." Levees cause water to rise instead of spread out, and that the cumulative effect of levees and wing dykes on the large rivers north of St. Louis is beginning to manifest itself in flooding.
New USGS flood map
SOUTH CAROLINA - As of 5 pm Saturday, a RECORD RAINFALL for the date (4/5) had been set in Florence, with a total of 2.54" since midnight. This smashed the old record of 1.11 inches.
TENNESSEE - Friday's downpour broke Nashville's rainy-day record - As of 10 pm, 1.67 inches of rain had fallen on Friday. That BROKE A RECORD FOR APRIL 4 set in 1977, when just under an inch and a half was recorded.
KENTUCKY was swamped by heavy rains Friday, making numerous roads impassable, forcing evacuations and causing at least one death when a toddler was trapped in floodwaters. Rivers and streams surged over their banks as rainfall reached a half-foot in some areas.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - cherry farmers haven't been sleeping while erratic cold weather over the past 10 days has caused damage to the orchards. They're busy fighting below-freezing temperatures and impromptu spring snowstorms to save every bud on every cherry tree branch. Orchards in the lower elevations and on southern slope likely saw more damage than others and orchard perimeters are at higher risk. "I've haven't been doing this long - only 41 years - but I don't think I've seen a March that has been this cold, this long."

NEW HAMSPHIRE - SOME OF THE BIGGEST AVALANCHES IN THE 50-YEAR HISTORY of the Avalanche Center were recorded this winter. The amount of snow this year is phenomenal. North Conway real estate has changed due to huge the slides. “Hillman’s [Highway] is exceptionally large now with a huge run-out zone after the avalanche. There are old trees that used to be there forever which are now gone.” The U.S. Forest Service estimated the trees were more than 70 years old and were snapped off and uprooted. “We’re not only seeing incredibly large avalanches and an increase in avalanche cycles but also activity in areas that haven’t been active in recent winters." Avalanches are possible in snow-covered terrain over 25 degrees, even areas that are covered with moderately spaced trees. Locations below these steep slopes also present a danger as avalanche debris deposits in lower-angled areas referred to as “run-out zones.” Those hiking up from Ho Jo’s into the bowl at Tuck’s are seeing a disconcerting sight. For only the third time in the area’s recorded history, an avalanche recently buried a first-aid cache located on the left, just before you enter the amipitheatre. “It’s a presumed safety area." (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Food riots turn deadly in Haiti - At least four people were killed and 20 wounded when demonstrations against rising food prices turned into riots in southern Haiti. Reports say scores of people went on the rampage in the town of Les Cayes, blocking roads, looting shops and shooting at UN peacekeepers. The UN said its personnel had opened fire at some of the armed protesters. For two days running, parts of Haiti have been erupting into violence triggered by the soaring cost of food. The prices of rice, beans and fruit have gone up by 50% in the last year. Haiti is one of the poorest countries in the Americas. Around 80% of the population lives on less than $2 a day. (map)

A new warning on Pacific warming - A Samoan environmental advocate says climate change could decimate whole nations in the Pacific region. He says the solutions from last years Bali talks were flawed and focused on making money rather than protecting people and their environment. "The Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Auckland has come up saying on average we will get about nine cyclones a year in the South Pacific. We only need one cyclone in each of our countries to devastate the whole economy and therefore it's an issue of lfe and death for many of us."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

The first cases of people dying from bird flu in Pakistan were confirmed by the World Health Organisation.

Friday, April 4, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Words have the power to both destroy and heal.
When words are both true and kind, they can change our world.
The Buddha

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/3/08 -
5.1 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES

Possible Link Found Between Earthquakes Along Cascadia and San Andreas Faults - Seismic activity on the southern Cascadia Subduction fault may have triggered major earthquakes along the northern San Andreas Fault, according to new research. The research refines the recurrence rate for the southern portion of the Cascadia fault to approximately every 220 years for the last 3000 years. 13 of 15 San Andreas earthquakes occurred at almost the same time as earthquakes along the southern Cascadia Subduction Zone, which stretches from northern Vancouver Island to northern California. The marine and land paleoseismic record suggest a recurrence rate of approximately 220 years for the southern Cascadia fault, which is substantially shorter than the 600-year cycle suggested by previous research for full ruptures in Cascadia. The Cascadia earthquakes also preceded the San Andreas earthquakes by an average of 25 to 45 years. "It's either an amazing coincidence or one fault triggered the other."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Thousands of Victorian homes and businesses will remain without power over the weekend as the cost of this week's UNPRECEDENTED windstorm mounts. Around 20,000 of the 420,000 homes whose supply was knocked out by the storms remained cut off, most of them in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.

BRITAIN faces a more tropical-style summer this year, with both temperatures and rainfall predicted to be above average. Unveiling its long range forecast for the summer, the Met Office predicted this summer’s weather will follow a pattern of 'three fine days and a thunder storm’. After a heatwave and drought two years ago and then record rainfall and widespread flooding last year, this summer is predicted to return to a pattern of sunny spells then rain. However with overall temperatures and rainfall expected to be higher than average, sunny days may be warmer than usual and rainy days wetter. While it was unlikely, forecasters were unable to rule out a repeat of the torrential rain which saw floods leave thousands homeless and cause more than £3 billion of damage last year. Currently, freak rainfall such as that which swamped thousands of homes in Yorkshire, the Midlands and West Country, cannot be predicted more than a few weeks in advance. Last year’s heavy rains were partly blamed on a shift in the jet stream of air currents across the Atlantic. “There is no suggestion of any significant shift in the jet stream and that’s what caused the exceptionally wet weather last year.” The summer is predicted to be warmer and wetter than the average from 1971 to 2000 across the whole of North West Europe, while most of the continent will be warmer and drier.

CANADA - Ontario - Nith River flooding WORST ON RECORD - Ayr residents' backyards disappeared under the Nith River in the WORST FLOODING IN AT LEAST 60 YEARS. By 10 p.m., the Nith was roaring through Ayr at a rate of 450 cubic metres per second, the FASTEST FLOW SINCE RECORDING STARTED IN 1948. Upriver in New Hamburg, the worst was already over for residents who spent the day cleaning up in the wake of THE HEAVIEST FLOODING TO HIT THAT TOWN IN MORE THAN TWO DECADES. Flood warnings remain in place for Ayr, New Hamburg, Wolverton and Paris and the Grand River communities of Brantford, Six Nations and Haldimand County. "This is just the start of the spring melt season. There's still some snow on the ground and there's some rain in the forecast, so that could get things going again."

ARKANSAS - A tornado hit parts of Little Rock and its suburbs Thursday, injuring an unknown number of people, while damaging businesses and downing trees and power lines.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRIA - Thousands of tourists cut off by avalanches following heavy snowfall in western Austria - The ski resort villages of Lech, Zuers and Stuben have been hit and the Vorarlberg region is covered with snow after more than two feet fell in 24 hours. Roads from the villages have been closed since midday on Wednesday. A further foot of snow was expected to fall last night and it's unclear when the roads will reopen. "The avalanche danger is simply too great at present to drive along the roads to these towns. But the bars and restaurants are well stocked and there is no danger of power failures, so everyone will be comfortable." Experts at Austria's Avalanche Warning Service have put out their HIGHEST AVALANCHE ALERT YET THIS WINTER SEASON for many parts of Austria.

AFGHANISTAN - flash flooding and drought could hit an area of Afghanistan already blighted by its WORST WINTER IN 25 YEARS. International development agency ActionAid is distributing goats, cattle and poultry to 1,000 families most at need in the northern Jawzjan province after thousands of animals died during the winter. But the agency said there are now fears of flash floods as the snow melts rapidly, followed by drought in the longer term. So far there has been no rain for the just-planted wheat crop.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA - Wheat and rapeseed production in north China are under threat from severe drought. "We are facing THE MOST SEVERE CHALLENGES IN SPRING FARMING IN RECENT YEARS." Since the beginning of 2008, the average rainfall has been 5.5 mm in northern China, less than half the average, and THE LOWEST RAINFALL SINCE 1951. After the summer drought last year, the scarce rainfall and high temperature in Heilongjiang Province has caused THE MOST SERIOUS DROUGHT IN MORE THAN TWO DECADES and it coincides with the key period for spring farming. Farming material prices have been climbing, with seed and fertilizer prices rising 10 percent in February. Some provinces even reported lack of fertilizer supply caused by disrupted transportation and manufacturing of southern fertilizer producers during the snow havoc.

Wheat rises as Abnormal Weather erodes outlook for U.S. crop - Wheat jumped more than 4 percent, snapping a five-session slump, as a lingering dry spell in the Great Plains and excessive rain in the eastern Midwest diminish yield prospects for U.S. winter crops emerging from dormancy. Rains expected in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in the next five days will miss the driest counties. Above-average rainfall from Arkansas to Ohio may have damaged some crops. U.S. winter wheat will be harvested in June, and farmers will start planting spring wheat in the next two months. Parts of western Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and West Texas got as little as 5 percent of normal precipitation in March. As much as four times the usual amount of rainfall was recorded last month in parts of the eastern Midwest, flooding fields.

Rice Jumps to Record, Corn Near High as Demand Outpaces Supply - The World Bank estimates "that 33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices." For these countries "there is no margin for survival". Speculation was that a 3% annual increase in global demand for cereals will outstrip supply as governments curb exports to prevent protests. Rice, the staple food for about 3 billion people, rose 2.4 percent in Chicago trading yesterday after doubling in the past year. Soybeans advanced for the third day. Rice in Chicago climbed 42 percent in the first quarter, the biggest such increase in at least 14 years. Record grain prices contributed to strikes in Argentina, riots in Ivory Coast and a crackdown on illicit exports in Pakistan. "As financial markets have tumbled, food prices have soared." Since 2005 "the prices of staples have jumped 80 percent." The United Nations warned in February that 36 countries, including China, face food emergencies this year, as stockpiles of grains such as rice drop to a 26-year low.

A rarely seen disease of oilseed rape has been identified in a number of crops this spring. Patches of plants with severe phytophthora root rot (phytophthora megasperma) have been confirmed in several crops on sites with heavy, wet soils. Background levels of the pathogen were probably present in soils most of the time but this season disease development may have been exacerbated by weather patterns over winter, on heavier, slow draining soils in particular. There is nothing growers with affected crops can do at this stage to control the disease.

NEW ZEALAND - Farmers in central Hawke's Bay fear they are heading for their second drought in two years. In 2007, most farms in the region suffered the worst drought in more than 120 years and the situation is looking bad again. In central Hawke's Bay, there has been almost 40mm less rain in the past five months compared with a year ago. Farmers say unless there is a decent amount of rain soon, they will go into winter in almost as bad a position as last year. Many farmers in a poor financial position. They had to sell stock last year at a loss, and now because other regions are dry, the sale price for their lambs and weaner cattle is abysmal. Unless it rains in the next few weeks farmers will have little grass to feed their stock during winter.

INDIA, which has been fortunate to have largely stable monsoon for the last 140 years, may find the weather behaving erratically due to global warming with persistent drought in 60-70 years, a top meteorologist warns. The Government's efforts to push up farm growth might require some reorientation laying emphasis on arid farming and development of flood and drought resistant crops. Although the average increase of temperature in the last 140 years was 0.7 degree Celsius, the rate of change in the recent years is "very sharp and high". There is a real potential for the monsoon to enter a mega-drought state, with a high frequency of severe droughts, as the melting of glaciers in Arctic will affect the Indian monsoon. Melting of Arctic and Greenland ice due to global warming will lead to a rise in water level in the North Atlantic ocean. This will weaken 'thermohaline' (heat) circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, lowering atmospheric temperature over Indian longitudes and resulting in weak monsoon in the Indian sub-continent.

SPAIN - Severe Spanish drought sparks regional water stoush - The WORST DROUGHT IN DECADES in Spain is leading to regional disputes over scarce water resources, with areas with more reserves resisting transfers to more parched zones. There has been 40% less rain than normal across the country since the meteorological year began on October 1. "We can say it is the most severe drought in 40 years." In the traditionally drier Mediterranean regions, a lack of rain over the last 18 months means this is the worst drought since 1912. The drought has hurt crops and hydro-electric power production as water reserves have dropped to 46.6 per cent of capacity. The situation is especially critical in the north-eastern region of Catalunya, whose capital is Barcelona. Water reserves in the region of some seven million people are at just 19 per cent of their capacity. If they drop below 15 per cent, the water from the dams cannot be used, as it is too close to the bottom and will have too much sediment. "The forecast for the next three months is not very optimistic. The precipitation is expected to be normal or slightly below normal." Alarmed by the situation, the local Government wants to divert water from the river Segre, a tributary of the gigantic Ebro, to Barcelona. But the Government of the neighbouring region of Aragon, through which the Ebro flows, opposed the plan.

Global temperatures will drop slightly this year due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said. It is likely that La Nina will continue into the summer. This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory. But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WITHIN FIVE YEARS. The decade from 1998 to 2007 was THE WARMEST ON RECORD. La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world. El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina. It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China. The effect is likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree. This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world. A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted. But others insist this is not the case and note that 2008 temperatures would still be well above average for the century. "When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year. You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, April 3, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Make the most of living if you're not prepared to die.
Herman's Hermits

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/2/08 -
5.7 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.6 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
5.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - Victoria's killer weather causes chaos - Winds of up to 100kmh whipped across Victoria as the remnants of tropical Cyclone Pancho combined with an intense cold front in the Great Australian Bight and moved east. Some trains were cancelled indefinitely due to the weather, while disruptions continued on all other lines. "This is one of the worst episodes we've ever seen. It's even worse than other problems we had last year with flooding. It's severe, it's widespread." (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TASMANIA - Dozens of Tasmanians were facing a second night without power after chaotic weather and hurricane force winds topping more than 170 km/h whipped parts of the state. Emergency crews worked through the day to reconnect power supplies to thousands of residents and businesses, mostly in Hobart and surrounding areas. The wind gusts reached 176 km/h in suburbs along Hobart's eastern shore overnight before eventually dropping off. Several roofs were ripped off and trees fell on several homes around greater Hobart, while tree branches and other debris littered roads, initially blocking off many routes, including the Tasman Highway. "By late last night, we thought the situation had passed but by one o'clock we had a resurgence of winds, with 176 km/h recorded on Hobart's eastern shore." The damage bill from Tasmania's wild weather has already topped $1 million. The state's insurance companies have been inundated with hundreds of reports, ranging from trees falling on roofs to a trampoline blown onto two parked cars. They expect claim numbers could top those recorded during the storms of February 2005. "It's fences blown down, it's trees fallen onto cars and houses, roofs being blown off, tiles, windows blown in, anything to do with wind in particular." the sustained nature of the storm was HIGHLY UNUSUAL.

AUSTRALIA - Damaging winds swept across Victoria where the Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning for what it describes as "ONCE A YEAR" winds. Victorians were left wondering what had hit them last night after fierce winds that reached speeds of up to 130 km/h, dust storms and rain caused widespread destruction across Victoria and commuter chaos in Melbourne. More than 200,000 houses were left without power, and some without roofs, as suburban and country train services were severely disrupted and traffic restricted for up to three hours on two of Melbourne's key arteries, the West Gate and Bolte bridges. A woman in her 50s died when a wall collapsed into a laneway in Mentone. Big seas wrecked boats along the coast and in Port Phillip Bay. The wild weather had its genesis in cyclone Pancho that rounded the south-western corner of Australia and was blowing out to sea before intensifying and causing mayhem across south-eastern Australia. South Australia and Tasmania were badly affected. The bureau's severe weather expert said the magnitude of the storms was UNUSUAL for the time of year. The remnants of the cyclone had "filled in a little bit" before it moved across Victoria, magnifying its impact. A burst of cold air from above the Southern Ocean had collided with seasonally warm northerly winds to trigger the event. (photos)

U.S. - For the rain-drenched Midwest, April may indeed prove the cruelest month. As much as 4 inches of rain was forecast for last night and today in Missouri and nearby states, a region already struggling after two months of record precipitation. In Springfield, Missouri, rivers have topped their banks, low-lying roads sit under water and farm fields have become giant mud puddles. "The water table is brimming just below our feet. There's nowhere for more rain to go." Thunderstorms will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather, including large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes. Two days ago, nine tornadoes touched down in Missouri, damaging structures in Buffalo. No injuries were reported. Springfield SET RAINFALL RECORDS of 9.4 inches (24 centimeters) for the month of March and 6.4 inches for February. Other parts of the state, such as West Plains, received a record- setting 14.8 inches last month. Today's flood warnings stretch from eastern Oklahoma, across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, through southern Illinois and Indiana, and into western Kentucky.
OKLAHOMA - the Oklahoma Scenic Rivers Commissioner was warning those who live or own a property, residences or business along the Illinois River about the possibility of "seeing a record flood event within the Illinois River basin greater than that of two weeks back." From what weather forecasters are predicting – potential thunderstorms with heavy rainfall – and "my many years of experience working within the Illinois River Basin," eastern Oklahoma may be in harm's way late Wednesday evening through today. "Let me say my concern level is as high as it has ever been for the potential of flooding."
ILLINOIS - March is THE WETTEST ON RECORD - The St. Louis region broke a 111-year precipitation record in March with 8.39 inches, which is 0.14 inches more than the 1897 record. The average March precipitation is 3.6 inches. Farmers aren't panicking about the saturated fields yet, but some wheat fields languishing under floodwater could be lost. On March 20 heavy rains dumped up to 12 inches of rain in some parts of Southern Illinois. In Illinois, February was the wettest on record, too. In February, 4.48 inches of rain fell in the state, which is 2.49 inches above average, breaking the 1895 state record.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
United States swept by deadly extreme winter weather Monday - Authorities reopened Colorado's main east-west highway but say it may be days before investigators are able to sort out the chain of events in a pileup involving 60 to 75 vehicles. One person was killed and at least 22 were injured in the crash that left Interstate 70 closed for nearly eight hours on Monday, stranding travellers who scrambled to find hotel rooms in the mountain communities on either side of Vail Pass. In Texas, heavy rain caused flooding in some areas on Monday. In east Texas, San Augustine County received more than a foot (30 centimetres) of rain during the day. Authorities say the storm led to two deaths and kept several roads closed. The storms in Texas also brought strong winds that damaged several homes and businesses and brought down power lines. Fast-moving winds and heavy rain also swept through southwestern Missouri on Monday. (video)

CANADA - Dry and cold - Thunder Bay was two degrees cooler than normal for the month of March and Environment Canada also says the district saw below normal readings in precipitation. Now that its over, the latest monthly report shows Thunder Bay and area actually had UNUSUAL readings with the amount of precipitation received. 12 millimetres of precipitation fell last month compared to the normal of almost 42 millimetres. It was still higher than the record low set in 1969 of three millimetres.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

HAWAII - Rain gages at Lihue Airport on Kaua'i and Kahului Airport on Maui measured RECORD LOW LEVELS OF RAINFALL last month. Total rainfall for the month at Lihue measured just 0.19 inches, breaking the previous record of 0.30 inches set in 1957. At Kahului, the March total of 0.01 inches broke the previous low rainfall record of 0.09 inches, which was also set in 1957.

'No Sun link' to climate change - Scientists have produced further compelling evidence showing that modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity. The research contradicts a favoured theory of climate "sceptics" that changes in cosmic rays coming to Earth determine cloudiness and temperature. The idea is that variations in solar activity affect cosmic ray intensity. But Lancaster University scientists found there has been no significant link between them in the last 20 years. Over the last 20 years, solar activity has been rising, which should have led to a drop in global temperatures if the theory was correct.

Specially designed soils could help combat climate change - The concept underlying the initiative exploits the fact that plants, crops and trees naturally absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) during photosynthesis and then pump surplus carbon through their roots into the earth around them. In most soils, much of this carbon can escape back to the atmosphere or enters groundwater. But in soils containing calcium-bearing silicates (natural or man-made), the team believe the carbon that oozes out of a plant’s roots may react with the calcium to form the harmless mineral calcium carbonate. The carbon then stays securely locked in the calcium carbonate, which simply remains in the soil, close to the plant’s roots, in the form of a coating on pebbles or as grains. A key benefit is that combating climate change in this way promises to be cheap compared with other processes. “We could potentially see applications in 2-3 years, including a number of ‘quick wins’ in the land restoration sector.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A rock pile ceases to be a rock pile
the moment a single man contemplates it,
bearing within him the image of a cathedral.
Antoine de Saint-Exupery

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
4/1/08 -
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.5 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA - high waves over the Easter weekend completely destroyed a number of fishpots, and displaced an even larger amount, leading to some economic challenges for fishermen. About 25 per cent of fishermen reported that their fishpots were displaced because of the rough waters.They will use GPS technology to find the fishpots once they have been released into the water, but even allowing for some travelling, some just cannot be found. The majority of fishermen, however, suffered no loss and were able to bring in hundreds of pounds of fish over the weekend. The major loss was felt by about three per cent of fishermen who said that their fishpots were damaged beyond repair due to the powerful waves. The most severe damage was sustained by those fishermen who sank their fishpots in the shallow waters off Barbuda, where most lobsters are caught. The shallowness exposed the fishpots to the roughness of the waves. Some fishermen blame the ‘freak’ occurrence on climate change because they remember that around Easter it has always been calm, allowing for casual fishing for the holiday. Based on normal weather patterns, fishermen would have anticipated the high waves and moved all their fishpots to deeper water, which is considered safer.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - High winds expected to close bridges. In Tasmania, the Bureau of Meteorology has issued a hurricane warning for southwestern coastal waters and a severe weather warning for the entire state. People in Melbourne have been told to go home if they are not on necessary business, with city bridges expected to be closed soon because of high winds. Traffic on the West Gate Bridge has already slowed to a crawl as winds of up to 80km/h lash the city. Motorcycles, high-sided vehicles and cars towing caravans have already been urged to seek alternate routes. Further traffic restrictions could occur if winds reach 100km/h and the bridge could close if winds approach 120km/h. A fallen tree outside the Royal Children's Hospital on Flemington Rd has blocked all citybound lanes and tram lines. Flights in and out of Melbourne Airport are expected to be delayed as winds approach 50 knots in the area. Firefighters in Victoria’s west are battling to contain a blaze near Terang after strong winds toppled a power line along the Princes Highway about 11am. Wind may also have been a factor after a scaffolding collapse killed a building site worker in Melbourne's southeast. The Meteorological bureau expects storm force winds involving a cold change and southwesterly winds to replace current warm northerly winds across Victoria. "We have squally and dusty wind gusts of 120 km/h on the way."

BANGLADESH - Five months after it lashed Bangladesh, Cyclone Sidr’s scars are visible in parts of the country where it wreaked havoc. Uprooted trees can be seen lying on fields and houses with new and shiny tin roofs speak of a hasty replacement job. Now, people in sub-divisions like Morelganj are trying to piece their lives together, rebuild destroyed homes and simply make ends meet. The rise in the price of rice has added to their woes.
Bangladesh hopes to buy 3 million tonnes of wheat and rice on international markets in the next three months to replace the crops destroyed by the cyclone. "This year production has been destroyed." Retail prices of wheat, edible oil and pulses have doubled over the last 12 months. The November cyclone killed some 3,500 people and made millions homeless.

MADAGASCAR - Relief efforts are still underway, concentrated mainly in the east of the Indian Ocean country which was struck by Cyclone Fame on 27 January.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CAMBODIA - Residents in a crowded area of the Cambodian capital were scrambling Tuesday to account for relatives and salvage what they could after a 50-meter bank of the Tonle Sap River slid into the water, leaving some 300 people homeless and an unknown number missing. A large section of land along Cambodia's Tonle Sap River in a crowded area of the capital, Phnom Penh, collapsed and sank April 1, taking dozens of homes and an unknown number of people with it. The area of the landslide was roughly 60 meters long and 30 meters wide. (photo)

ECUADOR - the Capital Quito was declared in emergency early Tuesday morning after heavy rain flooded important roads and tunnels causing the landslide of a road that joins south and center of the city. The downpours of the last few days caused the collapse that completely affected traffic and brought about chaos in the city. Flooding of the Machangara's river destroyed a canal that passes under the street, causing the road landslide and a huge crevice of 98 foot in diameter per 262 deep. They are afraid that over half of the road works will collapse and the weather Institute forecast more rain for Tuesday. After 8 hours of continuous rain and flooding of the San Diego tunnel that joins north and south through the western avenue, two other landslides were registered about 162 feet from Simon Bolivar's avenue.

PENNSYLVANIA - 2008 has had THE WETTEST BEGINNING EVER SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT by the National Weather Service for Towanda. So far this year, there has been 14.14 inches of precipitation in Towanda Township. The previous wettest three-month beginning occurred in 1958 with 10.98 inches. The normal amount of precipitation for January through March is 6.80 inches. Also, last month was the WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD in Towanda, the second consecutive month that a monthly precipitation record was broken. March 2008 saw a total of 7.55 inches. The previous record for March was 6.94 inches set in 1936.

ARKANSAS - With 15.32 inches of rainfall, March 2008 went down as THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD in Baxter County, drowning the old record of 11.46 inches.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
Organic yogurt maker Stonyfield Farm has announced a voluntary product recall of its non-fat blueberry yogurt products. The recall comes in response to the possibility of glass fragments in the product.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Effective immediately, I will no longer be publishing this webpage
as authorities have informed me that exposure to this information
may increase anxiety. But don't be concerned, take note of today's date and
have a happy April Fool's Day!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/31/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Another volcano – Karymsky located 140 km north from the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky – has started erupting on Kamchatka. In one day seismologists have detected nearly 100 separate shocks. An open spew of lava and volcanic bombs has not yet been seen, but several rock falls were seen on its slopes, caused by the volcano’s vibration. The volcano is belching steam and ash 7 kilometers high. The ash aerosol ejected by the volcano poses a danger for aviation as can reduce visibility to zero. It is also harmful for the toxic substances it contains. Ten years ago ash spews moved by the wind onto the closely located Karymskoye lake made it lifeless, having poisoned its entire water biosphere.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Be prepared for a tsunami strike - There is a reason why April 1 is the beginning of Tsunami Preparation Month: Today is the anniversary of the deadliest tsunami in recorded Hawaii history. It was on April 1, 1946 that an 8.6-magnitude earthquake near Alaska triggered a deadly wave that claimed the lives of 159 people in Hawaii. Use this time of raised awareness during April to plan an evacuation route if you live, commute, vacation or work near the ocean. What would you pack for a quick retreat? Be thinking now! (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will see 11 named tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes, weather researchers said on Monday. Half the hurricanes will become strong hurricanes, and four named storms will make landfall in the United States. The 2008 forecast gives 70% odds a cyclone will hit West Florida and 60% odds storms will strike the Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama coast and the U.S. east coast. It could be a long season, with a 30% chance of tropical storm formation in May and a 10% chance in December. Based partly on the 11-year solar activity cycle, the index has accurately predicted the area at highest risk in all but three of the last 24 years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM's northern region may suffer a spate of cyclones, hail, and rough seas due to an cold spell moving south into the area since Sunday night. Areas in the Gulf of Tonkin and off the coast of Ha Tinh and Thanh Hoa provinces will likely see strong wings blowing from 39-49kph and turbulent oceans. The cold spell is expected to affect the region until April 2. In related news, a cyclone that swept through Tra My Town in the central province of Quang Nam on Saturday night caused heavy property damage. The strong winds which lasted for 15 minutes, accompanied by heavy rain and lightning, tore the roofs off of dozens of houses and collapsed some. Electricity service and telephone networks were completely cut for hours in the area. (photo)
Southern provinces this year are expected to be hit with UNUSUAL rains, storms and big floods, according to weather officials. The rainy season this year will face ABNORMAL CHANGES as a result of La Nina and El Nino meteorological phenomena. The rainy season is forecast to come 10 days earlier than the last few years, beginning in early May. The number of storms from the East Sea to coastal Vietnam could increase, especially in the southeast and Mekong River Delta provinces. In the southeastern provinces, the water level of Dong Nai, Sai Gon and Be rivers are forecast to rise rapidly between July and September, triggering submersion in some surrounding areas. The heavy rains will coincide with strong sea tides, which could lead to increased flooding. In the Mekong River Delta, floods are expected to occur from July to September as the river water will rise to the third warning level (the dangerous level for floods).

INDIA - Rain in Mangalore on Saturday and Sunday erased a 33-YEAR-OLD RECORD FOR RAINFALL IN MARCH besides affecting the life of many farmers in the district. The two-day rainfall was nearly three times higher than the earlier record. A large number of areca nut growers of the region have been hit hard by the unseasonable rain. Many farmers, who were harvesting the yield, have complained that the areca nut kept for drying had been damaged.

TEXAS - Rains washed away a 33-YEAR-OLD ONE-DAY RAINFALL RECORD in Longview on Sunday, dumping more than 5 inches of rain on the east side of town and swelling creeks that forced all or parts of 19 roads to close. The previous record rainfall for March 30 in Longview was 2.56 inches recorded in 1965. The record rainfall was the second half of a one-two punch that began around 8:30 p.m. Saturday when an inch of hail fell in Kilgore before pushing on to Longview. Winds toppled the roof over gasoline pumps at a Kilgore convenience store. That city experienced 1.75 inches of hail Saturday night. Kilgore police reported marble-sized hail and winds reaching 70 mph Saturday night. "The hail in the storm drains would not allow the water to recede." (photos)

NEW YORK - Rain fell in a record-setting total of 6.24 inches, making March 2008 the WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD in Binghamton. The previous wettest March was 1980 when 6 inches of rain fell.

ARKANSAS may have to deal with the flooding for a few more weeks. The White River started to crest Friday, but the recent rain has stopped some areas from receding. Residents along the river's path in De Valls Bluff are worried the river flows would hit an already swollen Mississippi River and flow back into Arkansas. Flooding is also hurting farming in Arkansas. The weather service predicts some homes and crops will be covered by water into May.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA - Northern regions are likely to see more frequent and severe sandstorms in spring, the China Meteorological Administration said. "Sandstorm days" are expected to increase significantly in the eastern Inner Mongolia and northern Hebei regions. Eastern regions have also been forecast to receive less rain than last year. Several areas, including parts of Jilin and Liaoning provinces, are prone to "relatively severe" droughts in the season. As such, local forestry authorities should raise the fire alarm level. Meteorologists said the grim forecasts were related to the La Nina phenomenon and abnormal atmospheric circulation, and would prevail until summer. La Nina is a large pool of unusually cold water in the equatorial Pacific that develops every few years, affecting global weather. The latest development of La Nina was the cause of rare, prolonged snowstorms and low temperatures that devastated many parts of the country last month, experts said.

THAILAND - The drought in Thailand's northernmost province of Chiang Rai is reaching a crisis point as the Mekong River is running dry. More than 68,000 rai (27,200 acres) of agricultural lands have been damaged by the drought and the provincial authorities declared all 18 districts of Chiang Rai as a drought-ravaged area.

SPAIN - Barcelona and several other places in Catalonia are affected by severe drought. The 33 councils in Greater Barcelona have banned the use of drinking water to water gardens, wash cars or to fill swimming pools by private citizens, companies and institutions starting from Monday. (photos)

SOLOMON ISLANDS - the effects of global warming are already evident in the country. The effects include coastal erosion, inundation and salt water intrusion. Rsing sea levels have already led to the shrinking of the water table in Ontong Java. The threats to agriculture from climate change may lead to acute malnutrition in the immediate future.

FLORIDA - It's usually on the dry side as they move into April, with low humidity and bright cloudless skies. But a high pressure system in the northeast Atlantic isn't in its normal location for this time of year, making conditions more humid and setting the stage for a chance of rain all the way through this Sunday. It's only a slight chance, in the 20 - 30% range, but it's there nonetheless, and you can feel it when you walk outside. And the rain is badly needed. Forecasters say it will take 2 years of above normal rain to get the region's water tables back where they belong.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

SPACE WEATHER -
Alberta, Canada - 1/19/08 - Visitor from space? A mysterious hole in pond sparked speculation of a meteorite. A mysterious octopus-shaped hole appeared in ice half a metre thick on a pond at The Links golf course in Spruce Grove. The hole about 1.5 metres in diameter was visible, along with at least 20 splash marks - the longest about six metres. Residents suspect it might have been a meteorite. Whatever it was, it had to have followed a high trajectory based on "how the splash spread." An astronomer said he wouldn't rule out the possibility of a falling meteorite, but the marks perplexed him. To punch through ice nearly half a metre thick, the meteor would have to be huge and would look like a bright burning ball with an associated sonic boom. "Usually, it's quite a distinctive rumbling sound and people tend to notice that sound." But no one reported seeing or hearing anything unusual. "The whole pond was covered in snow until this morning when we saw the strange marks in the pond." They weren't aware of any reports of fireballs in the area. Such an object wouldn't normally melt thick ice. "If it wasn't a meteorite, what the heck was it?" asked the baffled astronomer.

BIRD DIE-OFFS -
CANADA - PORT DOVER - 2/21/08 - Wildlife authorities are investigating a die-off of nearly 200 crows east of here. One group was reported near Highway 6 while the other was located on Lakeshore Road south of the U.S. Steel plant in Nanticoke. "It's unexplained. It could be disease or a poisoning. It's likely not the weather. It's UNUSUAL." At this point, poisoning is high on the list, with Avitrol being a prime suspect. Avitrol is commonly used where birds in large numbers create a nuisance. Avitrol sends birds into distress. The Avitrol website warns the pesticide often kills birds that ingest it. Mortality is higher in cold weather because birds metabolize food at a faster rate. As well, birds eat more in cold weather.

AUSTRALIA - the death of several hundred more seabirds along Western Australia's south coast was being investigated.

Monday, March 31, 2008 -

Unusually quiet today. Yay!

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
People should learn to see and so avoid all danger.
Just as a wise man keeps away from mad dogs,
so one should not make friends with evil men.
Buddha

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/30/08 -
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - Rain widespread as cyclone weakens - The rain is the remnants of a weakening ex-Tropical Cyclone Poncho as it moves south. Last Thursday Poncho was a category four system sitting about 1000km off Exmouth. It did not pose any threat to coastal communities but brought some significant rainfalls in the north-west of Western Australia late last week. The system was bringing a lot of mid-level cloud, delivering welcome rains to most of the south-west of the State today. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - Freak storm destroys dozens of houses - Strong winds and heavy rain pounded several villages in Pokok Sena yesterday evening, leaving a trail of destruction in at least seven villages. Dozens of houses were damaged, including 14 badly, as powerful winds sped through Pondok Lama, Bendang Lanjut, Kampung Baru, Bendang Baru, Bukit Kecil, Batu 20 and Kampung Keda, sending roofs and planks into the air. There was no loss of life reported in the 30-minute incident, which also caused damage to furniture and electrical equipment. The storm was UNUSUAL as the rain was heavy but not widespread.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Northern New England's weather-weary residents saw new benchmarks for seasonal snowfall as an early spring storm Friday brought yet more snow to the region. The storm pushed Concord, N.H., into second place for all-time snowfall at 115.2 inches - THE MOST SNOW IN 135 YEARS - while Portland, Maine, nudged past the 100-inch mark. Another 7 inches of snow would put Concord in record-breaking territory. "It's like an old-fashioned winter. People say `Boy, we don't have the winters we used to.' This will keep them quiet for a while this year." Southern and coastal Maine were hardest hit in the latest storm while northern Maine, which got slammed with a blizzard a week earlier, was largely bypassed by the storm. Last week's storm SET A RECORD in Caribou, which has received 189.1 inches this season. That breaks the previous record of 181 inches set during the 1954-1955 season. This season's snowfall already has BROKEN SEVERAL RECORDS, including the snowiest December, January and February, in both Concord and Montpelier, Vermont.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Humans creating new 'geological age' - Humans are causing such UNPRECEDENTED climatic change and mass extinctions, it is creating a new geological age, according to a leading environmental scientist. The planet is already amid a "human-induced mass extinction event" which is defining a new geological age known as the Anthropocene. "The current rate of species loss is higher than the background rate inferred in the fossil record. Another 10-30% of birds, mammals and amphibians are currently threatened with extinction. This rapid rate in the loss of species diversity is similar in intensity to the event around 65 million years ago which wiped out the dinosaurs and other species." Damming nearly all of the world's major rivers has left 75% of the world's fisheries exploited or depleted. "Human history is littered with examples of civilisations that have collapsed because of their inability to adjust to environmental change - such as the Mayans in Meso-America, the Norse colonies in southern Greenland and the Akkadian civilisation, which was located in what is now Syria."

AUSTRALIA - Townsville, in north Queensland, is on track for THE DRIEST MARCH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. If no rain falls in the next 18 hours, Townsville airport will have recorded just two millimetres of rain for the month - the lowest recorded fall since records began in 1940. The previous lowest was 7.2mm in 1992 - in a month that averages about 180mm. It is not unusual to have big fluctuations in Australia's weather patterns, but it is a CURIOUS WEATHER PATTERN. "It's perhaps quite a contrast, we had very heavy rainfall in Townsville for January and February and to have quite a dry March I guess is an UNUSUAL pattern."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, March 30, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"You can tell more about a person by what he says about others
than you can by what others say about him."
Anonymous

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/29/08 -
6.5 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.2 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 ISLA CHILOE, LOS LAGOS, CHILE
5.5 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
3/28/08 -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 VANUATU
5.8 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.7 CRETE, GREECE

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - volcano erupting - under water. You wouldn't know it but a large volcano eruption is taking place in New Zealand. It's not visible because Monowai is completely underwater - north of the Kermadec Islands, and is about 1500 metres deep. Its conical cone reaches to just 120 metres below the surface of the Pacific. They recorded a "big acoustic event on February 8". It was strong "but not a monster". Monowai is in an eruptive phase but it is difficult to say whether the event was a strong eruption. Monowai has erupted regularly over the years. In May 2002 the volcano itself collapsed creating an "explosive interaction and cooling of hot magma and volcaniclastic rubble with ambient seawater". Monowai is similar to Mount St Helen's in the United States which collapsed and then rebuilt itself over time. The latest activity has gone unnoticed on the surface as its location is off the main shipping routes. In previous years Royal New Zealand Air Force over flights have spotted large sulphur slicks. What was thought to be a shoal of fish was first reported in the area in 1944 but it was not until 1977 that it was recognised as a volcano.

CANARY ISLANDS - It is 35 years since the last volcanic eruption in Spain which took place on the island of La Palma when Teneguía blew its top in a most spectacular way. Since those dramatic days there have been rumbles and tremors throughout the archipelago but on the whole relative peace and calm, complacency even. But seismic movements and gas emissions are a reminder that risk lurks constantly in the background of everyday life here. On the premise that forewarned is forearmed (or perhaps even better safe than sorry), the Cabildo’s Institute of Technology and Renewable Energy has got an educational show on the road which will be touring all the islands. The show aims to familiarize the population with the various dangers associated with volcanic activity and demonstrate ideas the authorities have come up with to reduce the risks associated with living on a volcano.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SRI LANKA - March is usually a hot month but heavy rains have lashed Sri Lanka this year. Meteorologists believe the prevailing weather is due to the La Nina conditions in the Pacific. The Maha harvest looked promising this year, but hundreds of paddy farmers in many districts have watched their crops go underwater because of the unseasonal rains, their harvest destroyed by the freak weather patterns March is traditionally a drier period for Sri Lanka between the north-eastern monsoon and the inter-monsoonal rains. The earth's movement exposes Sri Lanka directly to the sun during this month, bringing swinging heat waves across the country. This year, La Nina changed the pattern. The large-scale variations in atmospheric pressure between the Pacific and the Indian oceans affect the trade winds. When the wind moves across large oceans, it absorbs water that later comes down as rain or storms. Recently there has been a change of temperature in the eastern seas near Indonesia/Sumatra which is believed to be due to the La Nina phenomenon. During the last century El Niño and La Niña events occurred in equal numbers with an average return period of about four years. They usually last about a year and peak in the northern hemisphere winter. But there seems to be a change of the patterns. Scientists are still looking for a Global Warming "fingerprint" on El Nino/La Nina conditions. But many believe it is likely we will see more El Nino/La Nina because of global warming. The recent changes in weather patterns in Sri Lanka are consistent with climate change. The need of the hour is to build a climate change model for identifying the patterns.

ARKANSAS - Thursday officials announced the white river could reach 100-year flood levels as it moves toward the Mississippi, further devastating wheat fields. The last flood of similar size was in 1982, which resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. State officials have to wait for the water to recede, before they can assess the damage. In some places the water is still standing only a few feet lower than where it stood after the 1982 flood. The heavy rains and up to six feet of flood water has left many farmers shaken by the loss of crops. Thirty-five counties, or nearly half the state, have been declared federal disaster areas because of the flooding. Last year Arkansas produced about 29 million bushels of wheat.

AUSTRALIA - Cane toads have bounded to within 25km of the WA border after heavy rain from cyclone Pancho flooded roads to create "toad highways". Instead of arriving by the end of the year, the toads are now scheduled to jump the border within weeks. As a result, volunteers from the Kimberley Toad Busters have stepped up their toad patrol to catch the deadly amphibians - which can grow as large as a small dog and weigh up to 1.8kg and 25cm in length - every night instead of only on weekends. “The toads have moved faster than predicted because of a late heavy wet season - which is UNUSUAL." Because of the efforts of volunteers, who work by torchlight in ankle-deep mud, WA is facing a trickle of toads crossing into the Kimberley rather than a surging wave. The warty leather-backs originate from South America and were introduced into Australia in 1935 as a device for eradicating beetles from sugar cane. Before long the toads became pests themselves utilising highly toxic glands to kill native predators almost as soon as they are ingested. So far they have unleashed havoc in Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory and they are now but a hop, skip and a jump from WA.

INDIA - Rain in March? Figures of the Indian Meteorological Department suggest that it is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. The state recorded 86.4 millimetres rainfall during the week ending March 26. That is 5,760% MORE WEEKLY RAINFALL THAN IS TYPICAL OF THIS MONTH. The total rainfall this month in the state, through March 26, is 2,126% more than what is expected this month. The state received 110.6 mm rainfall while it generally records about 5.2 mm during these 26 days. “It is a RARE occasion where the pre-monsoon showers have gone past the quantity of South West monsoon in a single week. The rainfall of 86.4 mm across the state during the week ended March 26, with excess rainfall in all districts, is a better quantity of rainfall than the actual monsoon." Northern parts of Bangalore received recorded more than 100 mm rainfall on the one night of March 26.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SPAIN's government on Friday unveiled new measures to relieve the impact of THE DRIEST WINTER IN MEMORY, including diverting water between regions to ensure supplies to 2.5 million people in the parched southeast. In addition to human consumption, Spain depends on water to irrigate crops and cut its heavy dependence on imported grain, as well as to boost hydroelectric output. The Mediterranean coast as a whole suffered THE DRIEST AUTUMN AND WINTER ON RECORD. In some regions of Spain, restrictions on water use have been in force for the past four years. Spain's power stations are down to 54.5 percent of capapcity from 77.1 percent this time last year.

CYPRUS has been experiencing another mini-heatwave. It was a surprise for the time of year and in contrast to the much lower temperatures they've had in recent weeks. In addition, for several days there was an UNUSUAL dust storm which affected the whole island. "As I look out of the kitchen window, I can normally see a line in the distance beyond the fields quite clearly, dividing the sea from the sky, but last Tuesday, a holiday celebrating Greek National Day, all I could see was an indistinct grey blur, so that the sea just merged with the sky." That day 132 micrograms of dust was recorded in Pafos, 20 times the normal level. The hospitals were inundated with people suffering from the effects of higher than usual amounts of dust in the atmosphere.

The seasonal drought in the Aegean region is turning into a yearly process. Ýzmir, Turkey, has experienced drought at serious levels twice since 1939: One occurred in 1992 and the other in 2007. “This form of drought is seen seasonally in the Aegean region. However, the drought this year tends to cover the whole year. Ýzmir's annual precipitation is mainly composed of rainfall between November and February. If rainfall intensity is low in these months, it will cause a water deficiency throughout the year. Some 60% decrease in rainfall has occurred in the region this year."

COLORADO - Climate change is real, and it’s here, so Denver Water recently tried to determine how increasing temperatures would affect stream flows and water supplies. With a temperature increase of two degrees over a 50-year stretch — assuming no change in precipitation — streamflows and water supplies would decrease by 7 percent. A second scenario plugged a 5 degree temperature increase into the model. Streamflows would drop by 19 percent, with a 14 percent impact to Denver Water’s supply. Both temperature scenarios are “modest” compared to what many climate change models are predicting. The point of the studies is to develop a long-term water plan that will work in different climate change scenarios. Some recent climate change models are actually predicting an increase in winter precipitation in Colorado. Under those scenarios, the northern Rockies could see a snowfall regime similar to the Sierra Nevada, with more wet and heavy snow. Future snowpack seasons will be shorter and runoff will occur earlier. Up to now, planners have based their planning on past streamflows, for example using the worst recorded droughts as a baseline. “We need to go beyond that.” Global warming could result in more severe droughts. Denver Water’s long-range planning effort is trying to factor those unknowns into the equation in preparing for long-term climate change.

MINNESOTA - There may be less maple syrup flowing out of northern Minnesota this spring because two summers of drought have hurt the sugar maples.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

A mystery illness that has scientists baffled is wiping out tens of thousands of bats across the north-east of the US. White nose syndrome, as it is known, cannot even be categorised as a disease. The syndrome leaves small, white, fungal spots around the nose and mouth of the tiny nocturnal animals. "Did it spread? I don't know, because we don't know what it is." The bats have been woken prematurely from their winter hibernation and, with their fat reserves seriously depleted, their natural impulse is to forage for food. The reality of the harsh New England winter is that there are no insects to eat so they starve to death. One possible link under serious consideration is the equally mysterious catastrophe that has affected the honeybee population. "I have no doubt we will figure it out. But even once we figure it out, I suspect we'll never be able to do anything about it." Hopefully the bats themselves will begin to develop immunity, although nobody knows how far the syndrome will go. The syndrome is yet another environmental alarm bell.

Friday, March 28, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
No one conquers who doesn't fight.
Confucius

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/27/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.2 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.1 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.7 NORTH OF HONDURAS

CANADA - The chances of a massive earthquake striking British Columbia's south coast will be somewhat higher than normal in April. Seismologists project the region will soon enter another period of what they call "episodic tremor and slip" activity. ETS periods happen every 14 months and are marked by more small tremors and increased movement as the Juan de Fuca plate grinds underneath the North American plate along what's known as the Cascadia subduction zone. The fault that slopes down beneath Vancouver Island comes under increased pressure at such times and that's also when seismologists think it's more likely there could be a major movement of the plates, causing a "megathrust" earthquake. "Each time we have one of these events an increment of stress gets added." The result will be a giant subduction zone quake of magnitude 9 or more, likely coupled with a potentially devastating tsunami. That type of earthquake last struck on Jan. 26, 1700, wiping out aboriginal villages and sending a tsunami across the Pacific that devastated Japan. The current forecast is for a two-week ETS period to occur around mid-April. The Cascadia subduction zone underneath B.C.'s coast doesn't operate in isolation – it extends south all the way to California. "Cascadia mostly fails in giant magnitude 9 earthquakes that rupture the entire 1,000-kilometre subduction zone rather than in smaller earthquakes affecting only certain regions." ETS activity in other parts of the fault often happens at different times than in B.C. An 11-month cycle has been observed in California. That means the super quake could start off Oregon or California rather than Bristish Columbia, but rip its way up the coast to B.C. even when this area might be in a theoretical "safer" time. About a third of the time some portion of the zone is undergoing increased ETS stress. The more probable source of major damage here is not one of these extremely rare and deep underground "monster" subduction quakes, but rather more common earthquakes that are less powerful but felt more intensely because they happen closer to the surface. They include quakes like ones in 1918 and 1946 on Vancouver Island. There's about a 20% chance of a close, damaging quake happening over the course of a lifetime. (map / diagram)

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Big Island Officials Prepare for Kilauea Danger - Levels of toxic sulfur dioxide at the summit are six to ten times greater than before the eruption. "The ten-fold increase of SO2 at the summit makes the total output for the volcano double basically, and the increased hazard from this emission source is, it's closer to where people live and breath and visit than Pu'u 'O'o is." Experts say no one can know exactly what will happen next so they're preparing for the worst. Tradewinds have been pushing the toxic cloud away from the nearest towns but a wind shift could force evacuations. The billowing fumes from Halema'uma'u crater are a growing danger. Even the experts say they are prepared to leave if conditions get too dangerous.
Geologists have been analyzing the steam and gas plume that’s been gushing from Halemaumau crater at the summit of Kilauea since March 11th. They've found something they didn’t expect: the H2O in their test tubes is not from ground water. It's been released from the molten subterranean magma itself. They’re calling it “juvenile water,” and IT'S NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE ANYWHERE ON THE PLANET.

RUSSIA - Volcanoes of Kamchatka Awake - Koryaksky and Avachinsky volcanoes, located 25 km from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, have become more active. Specialists of the Geophysical Service detected the highest activity on March 25. Over 60 separate seismic shocks were registered by the devices in the volcanic area. Visual observation is complicated in view of weather conditions. A veil of clouds hides tops of the volcanoes. The last eruption of a volcano from the group of the Kamchatka “home” volcanoes – Avachinsky – occurred in 1991. As all three volcanoes are seen within a distance of 100 km, the eruption could be seen by dwellers of Petropavlovsk and closely located towns.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone PANCHO was 713 nmi NW of Perth, Australia.

Australia will continue to feel the effects of Tropical Cyclone Pancho as it moves parallel to the country's west coast. The storm won't make landfall and will weaken into a Category 1 storm, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will sweep over the Shark Bay area.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - A record-breaking heat wave has hit South Australia in the middle of this year's harvest, sending the grapes' sugar levels soaring and forcing winemakers to scramble to harvest their fruit. Adelaide, the city closest to Australia's major winegrowing regions, sweltered through 15 consecutive days above 35° Celsius (95° Fahrenheit), the longest heat wave recorded in any Australian capital city. Scientists have called the event a once-in-3000-year occurrence. Fast-rising sugar levels have forced a race to pick fruit before the grapes become too ripe for quality wine. A crop of Shiraz came in at 25 Baumé (45 Brix), almost double the usual sugar ripeness of Barossa Shiraz. "The heat wave has produced crazy numbers!" The heat couldn't have come at a worse time, so far as many of the country's winemakers are concerned. "We've had no rain since mid-December, which has put added stress on the vines. Few growers have sufficient water reserves to hydrate their vines. "And even with water, there's a limit as to how long vines can stand up under those conditions." The heat followed an ideal, cool, even-ripening period, so many producers had picked their fruit before the danger period. But they just happened to get lucky. "The biggest problem was that none of the heat was forecast, so we had no chance to rush our fruit in before it hit. No one knew that we would have two weeks like this."
There is a mass exodus of cattle underway in the western Queensland region, with tens of thousands of beasts being moved. The lack of a wet season has prompted graziers to de-stock, and road trains are moving through from the Northern Territory and the Barkly Tableland region. Conditions are becoming desperate. "I'd say close to 100,000 cattle will be moving out of the northern part of Queensland and the Northern Territory."

NEW ZEALAND - The drought in the lower North Island is getting worse and the local regional council is saying every drop of water counts. The Waikato region has been a drought zone for nearly two months and six weeks ago the region from Ruapehu to Manawatu also became an official drought area. Horizons Regional Council fears the tough times are just the first of many. It is becoming increasingly tough for many in the area's primary sectors. Pastures and soils have become even dryer and RIVER LEVELS ARE THE LOWEST IN LIVING MEMORY.

CHINA - the China winter wheat crop has been affected by drought. And a combination of severe drought, increased costs of inputs such as seed and fertilizer and earlier snow storms pose the biggest threat to China's spring planting in several years. Also a concern for wheat output is the presence of several wheat diseases. Wheat stripe rust has rapidly spread through the country as a result of snow storms and slowly rising temperatures. Northern China predicts 11% of its crops will suffer heavy losses in production output.

Millions at risk in South Asia from rapidly warmer world - Rising seas and water shortages will displace about 125 million people living along the coasts of India and Bangladesh by the turn of the century, Greenpeace said on Tuesday. Climate change will also trigger erratic monsoons and break down agricultural systems in the vast and densely populated Gangetic delta. The effect of rising temperatures is already apparent in the recurrent floods in coastal Bangladesh. Together, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have nearly 130 million people living along coastal areas less than 10 metres (33 feet) above sea level. The number of people displaced by global warming could dwarf the nearly 10 million refugees and almost 25 million internally displaced people already fleeing wars and oppression. Christian Aid has predicted there will be one billion people displaced by climate change globally by 2050. India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have a total population of about 1.4 billion people. "We cannot wait for the inevitable to happen and hope to adapt to it. We need policies that reduce the risk of destructive climate change."

The effects of climate change are increasingly driving people in sub-Saharan Africa to migrate in search of better living conditions, according to experts. First, soil quality breaks down. Then people produce less food and poverty deepens. This leads to social tensions and forces people to move - some to urban areas, some to other countries. People in the region will likely have an increasingly tough time feeding themselves as climate change will continue to fuel famine in sub-Saharan Africa.

Black carbon pollution, or soot, produced by burning wood, coal, cow dung and diesel fuel, may be a much greater contributor to global warming than previously suspected, according to a study released this week. The report concludes that the atmospheric warming effect of black carbon pollution is as much as three to four times the consensus estimate released last year in a report. Unlike carbon dioxide, which traps solar energy radiating back from Earth's surface, black carbon particles absorb solar radiation as it enters Earth's atmosphere, increasing its heat. In addition, when they precipitate onto snowy areas, they increase heat absorption that leads to glacial melting. The report concluded that black carbon pollution, which scientists blame for the premature deaths of more than a million people, is one of the major contributors to the retreat of the Himalayan glaciers.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Plastic waste in the oceans poses a potentially devastating long-term toxic threat to the food chain, according to marine scientists. Studies suggest billions of microscopic plastic fragments drifting underwater are concentrating pollutants like DDT. Most attention has focused on dangers that visible items of plastic waste pose to seabirds and other wildlife. But researchers are warning that the risk of hidden contamination could be more serious. It is as if the plastic particles act as magnets for poisons in the ocean. "We know that plastics in the marine environment will accumulate and concentrate toxic chemicals from the surrounding seawater and you can get concentrations several thousand times greater than in the surrounding water on the surface of the plastic. Now there's the potential for those chemicals to be released to those marine organisms if they then eat the plastic." Research on stretches of shoreline has shown that, at the microscopic level, plastic pollution is far worse than feared. In a typical sample of the sandy material gathered at the high tide mark on shorelines, one-quarter of the total weight may be composed of plastic particles.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Simply Fresh Fruit, of Los Angeles, California is recalling selected fresh cut fruit products which may contain cantaloupe which has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.
-FDA Warns Consumers about Total Body Formula and Total Body Mega Formula - The liquid dietary supplement products may cause severe adverse reactions, including significant hair loss, muscle cramps, joint pain and fatigue.

Thursday, March 27, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Good things may come to those who wait
but only what is left by those who hustle.
Abraham Lincoln

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Small quakes this morning -
3.2 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2.8 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
3.1 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
3.1 NEVADA
3.5 ARIZONA
Yesterday 2.5 in the SEATTLE-TACOMA URBAN AREA, WASHINGTON
Tuesday 4.2 in YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
& 2.6 and 2.5 in NEVADA

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/26/08 -
5.4 GUAM REGION
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea Volcano Restarts Its Fires, Spews Strange New Ash - A crater on the ever-active Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has started to spew a huge plume of ash. The recent explosion, which shut down roads in the area, may be a harbinger of even bigger explosions to come. The ash plume, which is thousands of feet high, indicates an unknown geophysical change deep inside the volcano. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone PANCHO was 950 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pancho strengthened off Australia's northwest coast and is forecast to move south-southeast, a path that may disrupt operations at offshore oil fields. Pancho was today upgraded to a Category 4 cyclone, the second-highest in a five-tier classification system. Australia's northwest coastline is the nation's most cyclone-prone region, with an average of five striking it between November and April each year. Earlier this month, Tropical Cyclone Ophelia closed oil fields, while Nicholas and Melanie caused disruptions in earlier months. The Bureau of Meteorology warned of winds above 64 knots and "very high to phenomenal seas" within 20 nautical miles of the center of the cyclone and "very rough seas" within 40 nautical miles.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARKANSAS - Floods inundate half of Arkansas - 35 counties declared disaster areas. The White River continued its HIGHEST SURGE IN A QUARTER-CENTURY through eastern Arkansas. After heavy rains last week, major rivers overflowed their banks, inundating north and central Arkansas and driving people from their homes and businesses. Tuesday, the waters continued to rise even as the sun was shining. The Army Corps of Engineers did not expect the White River to crest down river at Clarendon until Friday at 33.5 feet. The flooding was particularly unnerving to wheat farmers whose investments were under water. The flooding will reduce yields and may kill crops in some places, depending on how long the water stands. All the money farmers invested in their crops could be lost on tens of thousands of acres.

BRITAIN - Poison rivers may be grim legacy of flood disaster - Dangerous chemicals released during centuries of heavy industry could be polluting Yorkshire again after being dredged up in last summer's floods, new research reveals. Flooding will become an increasingly important issue in the years and decades to come – and only widescale change to the way we live will help mitigate the devastating impact. Floodplains need to be abandoned, new lakes created, hill farming scaled back, new homes built to the highest environmental standards and woodland regrown as Britons stop waging war with nature and allow the country to return to its natural state. And farmers need to be made "custodians of the countryside", being adequately compensated for allowing flood waters onto their land to ruin their crops in order to save towns and cities further downstream. Most pressing of all, however, could be dealing with the long-term effects of the recent floods. "The floods...scoured out the sediments to release the toxins downstream. The hope is that the sheer volume of water has diluted the impacts. However, this is not known for certain, but it is clear that very nasty chemicals have been re-released and have ended up somewhere downstream." "Society takes a risk when it over-grazes the uplands, paves over urban green space, develops in the floodplain or drains coastal wetlands. It mitigates that risk by building flood defences for the most valuable, built-upon land and tacitly accepts inevitable failure every 100 years or so." But the latest research suggests that floods which are now considered one in 200 year events, like last summer, might happen once a decade by 2080.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRIA on Wednesday remained in the firm grip of winter, with large parts of the country covered in up to 50 centimetres of snow. Weather-related traffic accident continued to occur mainly in western parts of the country, after one person was killed and 37 more injured in a mass pile-up involving more than 70 cars on the A1 motorway, Austria's main east-west link, on Tuesday. A number of roads were closed down in mountainous regions in the west of the country, either due to adverse weather conditions or after accidents. Avalanche risks increased on Wednesday due to the renewed snowfalls in the western provinces Tyrol and Vorarlberg. Authorities in Vorarlberg set the warning level to "high", in Tyrol skiers were warned against highly unfavorable conditions and high avalanche risks.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NORWAY - Five people were missing after landslides smashed into a residential complex in Alesund, Norway, tearing one building off its foundation. Rescue crews were prevented from entering the building because it was unstable after the first landslide crashed into the complex and moved it. Several floors in the building collapsed, causing gas lines to rupture, sparking several fires. A second landslide crashed into the rubble, prompting officials to evacuate the area. Police said 15 people were rescued from the building. One person described the scene as "incomprehensible," and it appeared the building was moved about 18 feet and parts of the first two floors were reduced to nothing.
The developer now responsible for the residential building that was destroyed by a landslide in Ålesund Wednesday morning called the incident "tragic" but beyond his firm's control. The six-story condominium building was completed in 2004. The project was built closely into the hillside behind it, which slid into the building just before 4am Wednesday. The mountain had been secured "following all the rules of the trade" with bolts. The developer linked the landslide to frostsprengning - shifting land mass caused by the melting of frozen ground. (photo)

SPACE WEATHER -
With little warning, three big sunspots have materialized and on March 25th one of them (989) unleashed an M2-class solar flare. This is the biggest flare of the year and it signals a significant increase in solar activity. Although Solar Cycle 24 has begun, these are not Cycle 24 spots. Their magnetic polarity associates them with old Cycle 23. There are two solar cycles active at the same time. Solar Cycle 24 has begun, but Solar Cycle 23 has not ended. This is perfectly normal. Around the time of solar minimum - now - old-cycle spots and new-cycle spots frequently intermingle. Eventually Cycle 23 will fade to zero, but not yet.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

High concentrations of ducks, rice fields, and human populations - rather than chickens - pose the highest risk of sparking deadly H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in Southeast Asia, according to a recent study. Human population concentration and high rice production were both strong risk factors for H5N1 outbreaks, as were numbers of both free-ranging and farm ducks. "Chicken numbers failed to show as a significant predictor of disease presence, except in wave 3 in Vietnam." Free-range duck farming in these Asian countries typically takes place in areas with high rice yield "because the rice grain left in the field after harvest provides a low-cost source of feed for duck production." Ninety percent of the world's 1 billion domestic ducks live in Asia.

Wednesday, March 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Following straight lines shortens distances,
and also life.
Antonio Porchia

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/24/08 -
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - Though the rough seas were getting calmer on Tuesday, the wave heights were still expected to increase beyond three meters at times. The conditions were expected to persist for at least the next 24-48 hours. "Sheltered areas of both islands will also be affected." For the past four days the islands, as well as other islands in the Caribbean, have been battered by huge waves, which emanated from a deep low-pressure system now located in the Northeast Atlantic. There were two reported drownings in Dominica and Barbados. In Tobago, the rough waves have claimed at least four fishing boats, caused damage to another two and affected six coastline properties. The shoreline which was covered with water for the past four days, could once again be seen, however, some sand was washed away by the rough waves and taken out to sea. Debris covered some shorelines and some debris was seen floating in the sea.

OREGON - From Wednesday through Saturday, enormous waves were typical along the central coast, no matter what the conditions. In fact, rather paradoxically, there were little or no clouds and often a lack of wind, yet gigantic surf was the norm along much of the coastline. Monstrous tidal conditions created quite the spectacle for most of last week, especially on the central coast, in spite of the periods of sun and blue sky. Friday night, in Depoe Bay, the sky was clear and a full moon lit up gargantuan breakers slamming into the headlands there. Saturday, the waves had calmed a little. But BeachConnection.net caught some dramatic action in Yachats. What’s UNUSUAL about these waves is that normally this means a storm is heading this direction. Often, it takes a day or so for such large surf to reach the coast, after it's kicked up by heavy winds out to sea. But Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday saw mostly nice, calm conditions – except for the first half of Friday, which was rainy, wet and extremely cold. “Sometimes the storms don’t come in, but you can still have big surf. You can have not bad weather on the beaches, but somewhere out there, there’s a storm that’s swinging by, missing us. And those winds are kicking up our surf. You can have them far out there, like Hawaii or Alaska, and the storm will just pass on by. Normally, they do come here. Sometimes they don’t. And those winds will kick up the surf there, and those waves will reach us a day later.” The other things that often typified last week’s wacky weather were schizophrenic quick changes in weather. Heavy squalls would be pounding the coast with rain one minute – five minutes later the sun could be breaking out. This is the norm for coastal weather in the spring. More wacky weather is coming to the coast and the coast range, which is not welcome news to tourism businesses that are wary of more snowy conditions on the passes which may hinder visitor traffic. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone PANCHO was 1051 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

Sharks could be used to predict storms following research by a marine biology student. Sharks have pressure-sensing abilities. If studies prove the theory, scientists in the future could monitor the behaviour of sharks to anticipate severe weather fronts. A shark senses pressure using hair cells in its balance system. An earlier shark habitat study in Florida coincided with the arrival of Hurricane Gabrielle in 2001, and observations suggested that juvenile blacktip sharks moved into deeper water in association with the approaching storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
THAILAND - The Meteorological Department Tuesday warned residents of ten provinces to brace themselves for possible tropical and hail storms. The department said the storms could happen in Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Ratchasima, Nakhon Sawan, Kanchanaburi, Chon Buri, Chanthaburi, and Trat. It said the storms could be caused by a high pressure mass over the North and Northeast.

MISSOURI - So far this year they have received 17.09" of rain which is 10.66" above what is average by this time this year. Normally they wouldn't be at 17" until June 5. This past February was the wettest February on record. So far this month they have received 7.97" of rain (as of right now the 5th wettest March on record). If they get more than 1.12" of rain over the next 6 days (which is certainly possible) that would make this the wettest March on record. Never before, as far as records have been kept, have they had back-to-back wettest months. Another active period of weather is on tap, with storms and flooding possible over the next seven days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GREECE - Deteriorating weather conditions, with gale-force winds, low temperatures and even spring snow, are expected to hamper the return of holiday-makers that took advantage of the March 25 anniversary holiday for a brief spring break. In the villages of Raches and Achladi in the prefecture of Fthiotida, there were reports of boats sinking in the harbour due to huge waves caused by the high winds. Freak weather conditions were also reported in Larisa, central Greece, on Monday evening, where trees were torn up, shop windows smashed and roofs swept away by extremely strong winds that caused extensive damage throughout the city. Another unexpected side-effect of the strong winds were a spate of unseasonably early wildfires that were fanned out of control, such as one that raged on the island of Skopelos and in forests at Krystallopigi in Florina, northern Greece. Unexpected late spring snow also caused widespread problems on Monday and Tuesday, and continued to cover most of the mountainous areas of Ioannina on Tuesday.

NORTH CAROLINA - A potentially record-breaking mass of cold air was predicted to drop temperatures into the mid-20s Tuesday morning, possibly damaging early-blooming peaches but not apples or strawberries. If the temperature dipped to 26 as forecast, it would break the old record low of 27 set in 1981. The normal low for this time of year is 37 degrees. 28 degrees is the critical temperature. If it falls below that mark, the cold air can do significant damage to the fruit crops.

MAINE - northern Maine broke another weather-related record early Monday morning thanks to a stubborn mass of cold air. The thermometer at the Caribou office of the National Weather Service read 14 degrees below zero at 5:49 a.m., low enough for the COLDEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD for March 24 SINCE 1939. The previous record low temperature for March 24 was minus 5 in 1989. On Friday, Caribou BROKE THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL RECORD when a blizzard roared through Aroostook County, dumping up to 17 inches in areas. By noon Friday, the official snowfall at Caribou was 182.5 inches, breaking the old record of 181.1. The official measurement now stands at 186.3 inches. "It’s been an incredible year. These are not the kind of records we want to break." As a rule, Mainers tend to think of themselves as hardy folks and accustomed to cold winters, but the double-digit subzero temperatures this late in March have many wondering if the calendar made a mistake listing March 20 as the first day of spring.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Antarctic shelf 'hangs by thread' - A chunk of ice the size of the Isle of Man (seven times the size of Manhattan Island) has started to break away from Antarctica in what scientists say is further evidence of a warming climate. Satellite images suggest that part of the ice shelf is disintegrating, and will soon crumble away. The Wilkins Ice Shelf has been stable for most of the last century, but began retreating in the 1990s. Six ice shelves in the same part of the continent have already been lost. "Wilkins is the largest ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula yet to be threatened. I didn't expect to see things happen this quickly." One researcher said he had never seen anything like it before. "We flew along the main crack and observed the sheer scale of movement from the breakage. Big hefty chunks of ice, the size of small houses, look as though they've been thrown around like rubble - it's like an explosion." Since an ice shelf is a floating platform of ice, the break-up will have no impact on sea level. But scientists say it heightens concerns over the impact of climate change on this part of Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula, which juts out into the Southern Ocean towards the tip of South America, has experienced UNPRECEDENTED warming over the last 50 years. Antarctica's summer melt season is drawing to a close. "This UNUSUAL show is over for this season. But come January, we'll be watching to see if the Wilkins continues to fall apart." (photo)( more photos )

SOMALIA - Forty humanitarian agencies have warned of an impending catastrophe in Somalia unless urgent action is taken. A million Somalis have left their homes because of insecurity and hunger, while a further 20,000 flee the capital Mogadishu every month. Two million Somalis need daily help to survive the crisis, which has been made worse by record food prices, hyper-inflation and drought in many parts of the country. Seasonal rains due to start soon are also predicted to fail.

Prices for rice, the key staple in India and much of the world, are going through the roof and, for the first time in over three decades, Vietnam has sold broken rice to the Philippines at an unheard of $ 750 per tonne. The highest price that 5% brokens has fetched so far has been around $425-450 per tonne. The government of Thailand, another major exporter, is currently toying with the idea of restricting exports to increase domestic supply and decrease local prices while Vietnam on Friday decided to impose a duty on rice exports and exporters will limit shipments to 3.5 million tonnes in the first 10 months of this year. The limits on sales by Vietnam will further tighten supplies in Asia. The restrictions on rice by exporting governments could further fuel international rice non-premium price to new heights of up to $1,000-$1200 per tonne in the near term. The implications could be serious for India, among the world’s top producers and consumers, already facing a tight supply despite record output.

The dramatic upward surge in world commodity prices has created a "new face of hunger." "There is food on shelves but people are priced out of the market. There is VULNERABILITY IN URBAN AREAS WE HAVE NOT SEEN BEFORE. There are FOOD RIOTS IN COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE NOT SEEN THEM BEFORE."

RUSSIA - The mercury climbed to a RECORD HIGH on Tuesday as the temperature rose to 14.2 degrees Celsius, 2 degrees higher than the previous mark, set in 1973. The freak weather was brought about by a warm front that moved into the region from the south, which was also responsible for the thick fog that caused difficulties at airports earlier in the day. "Very warm, moist air came to the Moscow region from the Mediterranean."

NEVADA - The Southern Nevada Water Authority is paying $1.50 a square foot to Las Vegas homeowners to rip out lawns and replace them with a desert-friendly variety of plants. Over 100 million square feet of turf has been converted through the program, saving 7 billion gallons of water. Until recently, water conservation was not a priority in the fast-growing city. Forced to take drastic steps to conserve its tightening water supply, Las Vegas officials declared lawns public enemy No. 1. "This is the driest desert in North America. In the old days we built stuff that you would find next to the Great Lakes, with turf everywhere. Not anymore."

AUSTRALIA - a bushfire in Perth's north is threatening lives and property.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Myself must I remake.
Yeats

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/24/08 -
5.9 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 GUAM REGION
5.0 XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION
5.3 VANUATU
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
3/23/08 -
5.0 XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION
5.0 FIJI REGION
6.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.6 WEST CHILE RISE
5.1 TONGA

KASHMIR - Geologists have cautioned that a major earthquake may hit the Himalayan segment of Kashmir anytime. "The horrible memories of the October 8, 2005 tremor may be still fresh in the minds of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, but they need to get prepared for an impending greater tremor which may hit the region anytime...Several studies have suggested increase in the static stress towards north-west and south-east of the rupture zone of the October 8, 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake. This is frightening news particularly for the millions of people who live in the Kashmir Valley, which lies to the southeast and in close vicinity of the rupture zone."

INDONESIA - More than 20 moderate earthquakes have struck the Mentawai Islands region in the past two weeks. Scientists fear the "big one" is yet to come. Scientists are concerned Mentawai Islands might bear the brunt of the next large earthquake as the strain along the fault line running down the coast of Sumatra is gradually released. Sumatra's capital Padang, which lies 150km east of the islands, is also in the line of fire. "We're almost positive the Nias earthquake in 2005 was the first of two or three great earthquakes in that area. The next one could be 30 seconds away. On the other hand, it could be years. We just don't know." An 8.4 earthquake hit the region just south of the Mentawai Islands in September last year, causing high-rise buildings to shake in Jakarta 700km away. The Sumatran fault line has been compared to a diving board with a very heavy diver perched on the end. "Pieces are breaking off under the strain." The Mentawai Islands are dealing with the fall-out from the earthquakes in the past few weeks. Houses and schools have been damaged. Thousands of villagers have fled into the hills to live in makeshift camps. Food is scarce. Still, only two deaths have been reported. Fear is one of the biggest problems. Some people have been living in the hills for the past six months, only venturing down to their villages during the day. The problem is that their fear is well founded.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - New Eruption at Kilauea's Halemaumau Crater - Sunday night and Monday morning, for the first time, lava erupted from a vent inside Kilauea Volcano's Halemaumau Crater. "The stuff that came out on the 19th was all older exploded stuff. And this was the first time we've seen what we call juvenile magma origin lava." So far only a very small amount of lava, pieces called Pele's Hair and Pele's Tears, have shot from the vent. The greatest threat right now comes from sulfur dioxide. Dangerous levels of sulfur dioxide are spewing from the vent. People in nearby communities are complaining about the sulfur irritating their eyes and causing respiratory problems. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BARBADOS - Broken coral washes up in Barbados with giant waves; expert fears widespread damage - UNUSUALLY LARGE waves churned by an Atlantic storm system have littered the beaches of Barbados with broken coral in what could be a sign of damage to reefs across the region. The amount of rubble on the island's west coast suggests the coral took a heavy pounding. The waves, reaching as high as an estimated 30 feet, lashed coastlines from Guyana to the Dominican Republic last week as a large low-pressure system idled off the northeastern United States. At their peak on Thursday morning, a buoy north of the U.S. Virgin Islands recorded swells of 15 feet — THE HIGHEST SINCE 1991. Several countries reported flooding in coastal areas.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 26S was 1075 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
KAZAKHSTAN - Thousands of people were left without fresh water in Kazakhstan on Monday after a major flood disrupted water supplies in the southwest of the Central Asian state. Spring flooding is a recurring problem across Central Asia but an abrupt rise in temperatures following weeks of severe cold has exacerbated the problem this year. Last month more than 12,000 people had to flee their homes in southern Kazakhstan after rain-swollen rivers swept away their houses, killing at least one person. Kazakhstan, a former Soviet country the size of Western Europe, is Central Asia's biggest economy and home to some of the world's biggest oil and metals reserves.

INDIA - unabated rain battered Dakshina Kannada and Udupi district and left a trail of destruction. Landslides, flooding, road blocks and erosion of roads are some of the initial reports coming in from all parts of the two districts. With rain letting up towards late afternoon on Monday the reports of destruction started arriving in all 53 police stations in the Dakshina Kannada district. Reports from Bajpe speak of destruction of crops. At Kandavara village in Bajpe a vast expanse of paddy fields were washed off along with the standing crop. The famous Harekala chili crop has sustained irreparable damage according to the villagers. Similar damages have been reported in Adyapady,Kolambe villages also. One of the commercial crops of Cashew has also sustained severe damage. Reports from the all parts of the district point out that the cashew crop which was getting ready for harvest in Bajpe, Puttur, Mangalore, Moodbidri, Buntwal, Kundapura and all across the interior coastal areas have sustained heavy damages. About 45 percent of the crop has sustained water damage and premature falling. In neighboring Kerala unconfirmed reports state that 16 persons have died due to the rains. Many rivers in that state are flowing above the danger level. In Hosdurga taluk over 40 houses have collapsed partially. The bridge connecting Agalpady with the main road has sustained extensive damage and arecanut plantations have sustained damages. According to met office in Bangalore the rain will continue to lash the coastal areas for next 48 hours as there are signs of the low pressure areas intensifying into stormy weather. (30 photos)
Heavy rains accompanied by thunder and lightning continued for the fifth consecutive day on Sunday, bringing normal life to a standstill. The unseasonal rains marooned several areas in Sedam town and two villages in Yadgir rendering more than one thousand people homeless. In Mangalore, standing paddy crops, chili and cotton have been damaged due to rain.

SRI LANKA - While the Agriculture Minister claimed early this week that only about 10 to 15 per cent of the paddy harvest was lost due to UNPRECEDENTED FREAK RAINY WEATHER experienced during the current harvesting season, yet, in some of the affected areas, especially in Mahaweli System C in Dehiattakandiya, most farmers were reporting losses of as much as half or even more of their harvest. Some area had experienced 20 days of non-stop rain during this harvesting season, which was UNPRECEDENTED since at least before 1956. The rains had ceased only on Thursday. Entire farmer families, including small children, were desperately trying to dry their paddy on road sides. Much of the paddy they had harvested had already begun to germinate. Farmers had worked day and night to salvage what they could from their harvest and now many of them are also paying a price by way of ill health. Ironically, this was expected to be a bumper harvest. Even farmers who have experienced vagaries of weather many times over admit this harvesting season is UNUSUAL. And the farmers who were yet bringing in their harvests were working like people possessed trying to finish their task before the skies came down on them once again.

U.S. - The flooding across the Midwest will go down as THE WORST FLOODING IN THE 80 YEARS THAT FLOOD RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT. The death toll has climbed to 17 with a few more people missing across the region.
ARKANSAS - Forecasters warned communities in the Arkansas prairie along the White River that they could suffer their worst flooding in more than a quarter-century. "You may be wondering why we issued a flash flood watch in eastern Arkansas when there is little to no rain in the forecast. There will be water going into areas where people have not seen it before, and may not be expecting to see high water." Upstream, the Black River sliced through a 60-year-old levee before emergency workers and volunteers could stem the tide with a mountain of sandbags Saturday. The Black enters the White River near Newport in northeast Arkansas. Forecasters issued a flash flood warning through Monday morning for communities along the White River. The break was fueled by water pouring in from soaked southeastern Missouri, flooding outlying areas to the south of Pocahontas. Arkansas emergency management officials have said early estimates for statewide damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure was at $2 million, though that figure was expected to grow. Forecasts show it likely will be the middle of this week before rivers statewide see significant drops. Last week's torrential rainstorms also caused flooding in parts of Ohio and southern Illinois and in wide areas of Missouri. Towns south of where the Mississippi and Ohio rivers meet in Cairo, Ill., braced for flooding expected in the next couple of days. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CYPRUS on Monday ordered emergency water rationing and imports from Greece to cope with a growing shortage exacerbated by a fourth year of drought.

CALIFORNIA - Sizzling temperatures were felt all over Southern California on Sunday as RECORD-BREAKING heat swept in. Along the coasts of Santa Monica, Manhattan, Long Beach, and Venice, the high heat coupled with very low humidity made for near desert-like conditions.

NORTH DAKOTA - The latest drought assement from the National Drought Mitigation center shows that 100 percent of the state is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. "Not since the 1997, 1996 winter have we seen large amounts of snow across the state of North Dakota. And so it is a concern. We are tracking somewhat of a dry cycle here for the last several winters, but again we are fortunate to not be in a growing season." Spring precipiation is usually above normal during La Nina years, but that hasn't always been the case.

“We are one drought away from disaster" - One bad production year could mean disaster for the agriculture infrastructure of the U.S. Wheat stocks are at their lowest ebb since post-World War II and prices are at near record highs. Low wheat stocks have encouraged investment bankers to dump millions of dollars on the U.S. market in hopes of making a quick profit. The result has been to artificially increase the price of wheat-containing food products and to push the supply of wheat worldwide to alarmingly low levels. Demand for corn is sure to keep corn prices soaring. And, soybeans, though not as much in the press as corn as a source of biofuels, is quietly becoming an oil of choice for easy to produce biodiesel. With diesel prices already nearing $4 per gallon, it is a safe bet biodiesel will get more and more attention as a fossil-fuel alternative. High prices are not necessarily a farmer’s best friend. “A few may make a lot of money, but in the long-run the entire industry will suffer and some people will go out of business.” These UNPRECEDENTED high prices (corn, wheat and soybeans all at or near 10-year highs at the same time) put grain dealers in a situation where one bad margin call or one missed hedge can put them out of business. Farmers, likewise, can literally lose the farm by forward contracting high priced grain, then because of drought or any number of production problems, not being able to deliver the contract and having to buy grain at inflated prices. Extreme weather shifts over the past two years have reduced wheat harvest worldwide by nearly 10 percent. Wheat supplies are at their lowest levels since 1973, or since 1940, depending on which analyst is to be believed. Either way, wheat stocks of less than four percent worldwide has prompted stunningly high prices. Corn prices affect the cost of gas, as more states go to 10 percent ethanol blends to meet clean air standards. Corn prices affect the price of beef, pork, poultry and other meat products. A $6 a pound sirloin steak and $4 gallon of milk are bargains, compared to the price should corn sell for long periods of time at $8 per bushel. Wheat prices have already sent bread prices up. Since 1971, in the United States, droughts or floods have wiped out 21-29% of the Midwest corn crop four times. Dramatic wheat losses, due to spring freezes, are even more frequent. Soybean losses to drought, delayed planting and the real threat from Asian soybean rust puts that crop at similar or worse risk. The risk of drought is higher than normal because of La Nina. In the past, drought, freeze and flood-related crop shortages have caused widespread shortages of food. The next disaster would be the first to cause a widespread shortage of fuel as well.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
State and federal public health officials are managing two large Salmonella outbreaks, one linked to contaminated groundwater that has sickened as many as 216 people in Alamosa, Colorado, and another that is apparently connected to imported Honduran cantaloupe and involves 59 illnesses in 16 states and Canada.

CALIFORNIA - this year's salmon fishing season is likely to be canceled due to THE LARGEST COLLAPSE OF PACIFIC SALMON STOCKS ON RECORD. The fall 2007 survey of breeding-age chinook salmon in the Sacramento River basin counted less than 6% of the long-term average number of the fish. And while fishermen and some environmental groups say that increased pumping of fresh water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is to blame for the precipitous drop, federal and state fishery managers and biologists point to the HIGHLY UNUSUAL ocean conditions of 2005, which may have left the fingerling salmon with little or none of the rich nourishment provided by the normal upwelling currents near the shore.

Monday, March 24, 2008 -

Sorry, no update - connection problems today (ice on the lines they tell me)

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