Disaster details for July & August 2008

Sunday, August 31, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One of the advantages of being disorderly is
that one is constantly making exciting discoveries.
A. A. Milne

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/30/08 -
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
6.1 SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA
5.2 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
6.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
8/29/08 -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 WESTERN XIZANG


South-west China hit by new quake - A powerful aftershock has rocked south-west China's Sichuan province today, one day after a 6.1-magnitude earthquake left at least 28 people dead and about 350 injured. The aftershock, with a magnitude of 5.6, struck the area near the city of Panzhihua, the same region hit by yesterday's deadly quake, Rescue teams rushed to bring tents, food and water to survivors, as well as to help evacuate more than 30,000 people from Panzhihua after up to 300 aftershocks rattled the area. Attempts to assist survivors were being hampered by heavy rain. Communications were reported to be disrupted, making it difficult for authorities to accurately assess the extent of the damage. The area is south-west of the region devastated by a massive earthquake in May. Up to 10 reservoirs in the region sustained damages, as did several major roads, rail links and power lines. As many as 130,000 homes were damaged or collapsed in Yunnan province, while over 38,000 residences were damaged in Panzhihua,

TIBET - Although there were no casualities reported from the strong 6.8 tremor that rocked Zhongba County on Monday, the tremor left a big 10-km crack on the earth's crust in a north-south direction. Some sections of the roads in the county are still blocked by mountain rocks that fell off during the quake. Inspection of 53 villages revealed cracks in 700 homes. A 6.7 magnitude quake occurred in the same area in 2004, followed by a 6.5 in April of 2005.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane GUSTAV was 179 nmi W of Key West, Florida.
Tropical storm HANNA was 325 nmi NNW of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Gustav howled into Cuba's western tip as a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane on Saturday. Gustav was just short of becoming a top-scale Category 5 hurricane as it hit Cuba's mainland after passing over its Isla de la Juventud province, where screaming 150 mph winds toppled telephone poles, mango and almond trees and peeled back the tin roofs of homes. There were "many people injured," but no reports of deaths. Nearly all the province's roads were washed out and some regions were heavily flooded.
Hurricane Gustav weakened to a category three storm as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Cuba. Forecasters said its path over Cuba had weakened it more than expected and the storm now had sustained winds of 125 miles per hour (201 kph). But they said it was likely to regain strength and make landfall as a powerful category four on Monday around New Orleans.
GUSTAV - THE STORM OF THE CENTURY is churning up the Gulf of Mexico. It is almost three years to the day since Hurricane Katrina swept New Orleans, killing hundreds and exposing deep poverty and lack of preparation. Billions of dollars of repair work has been left undone and authorities are worried about the damage Gustav could do. "The forecasters are saying this is GOING TO BE WORSE THAN ANYTHING THEY HAVE EVER SEEN and they absolutely do not want people taking chances." Highways around New Orleans are jammed and hundreds of people having been lining up to board buses as authorities urge residents to get out before the storm gets any closer. "This hurricane won't just affect New Orleans - but that city still hasn't recovered from Katrina and the levees will never be able to take Gustav's storm surge of over 20ft. No way." New Orleans has been ordered to evacuate, with warnings that anyone that stays behind are on their own.
With Hurricane Gustav on course to hit the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the damage it does to the region's oil facilities could be a "worse case scenario". The stark warning comes from an extreme weather impact analyst who says Gustav may be more damaging than 2005's Hurricane Katrina. Output from oil rigs in the US Gulf has already been cut by three-quarters, as staff continue to be evacuated. The region produces 25% of the US's crude oil and 15% of its natural gas. About 4,000 offshore oil and gas facilities are located in the US gulf, 100 of which were badly damaged three years ago by Katrina and the follow on Hurricane Rita. "This storm will be more dangerous than Katrina. I think this storm will prove to be a worse case scenario for the production region."

Tropical Storm Hanna moved toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today with winds of almost 60 mph. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the islands, where Hanna's outer rain bands were beginning to be felt. Hanna could be near hurricane strength today.

Intense lightning activity around a hurricane's eye - Many people assume that hurricanes have a lot of lightning because they are made up of hundreds of thunderstorms. However, "generally there's not a lot of lightning in the hurricane eye-wall region. So when people detect a lot of lightning in a hurricane, they perk up - they say, okay, something's happening." In 2005, scientists did perk up, because very strong Hurricane Emily had some of the most lightning activity ever seen in a hurricane. Scientists are now trying to determine if the frequency of lightning is connected to the hurricane's strength. Scientists detected both cloud-to-ground lightning strokes and cloud-to-cloud lightning in the thunderstorms surrounding Emily's eye. They also found that the "electric fields," or areas of the atmosphere that contained electricity above Hurricane Emily, were some the strongest ever recorded. Scientists also observed significant lightning in the eye walls of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - More than 300,000 people trapped in India's WORST FLOODS IN 50 YEARS have been rescued but 600,000, nearly double, remain stranded without food or water.

BRITAIN - WETTEST AUGUST SINCE 1992 and GREYEST AUGUST ON RECORD to exit with thunderous finale of heavy rain. Britain's woeful summer that never was will come to an end with thunderstorms and heavy rain. "There could be half a month's worth of rainfall in a couple of hours." The poor summer weather has been largely due to the position of the jet stream this year - the ribbon of fast moving air in the atmosphere which brings in weather systems from the Atlantic. This is in a more southerly position than usual, putting Britain in the firing line for weather fronts which usually come in over northern Scotland and Iceland. The UK has had just 96.3 hours of sunshine in the in the first 26 days of the month, 40 per cent below the August average of 165.1 hours.

TRINIDAD - The Works and Transport Minister described the intense rainfall which caused UNPRECEDENTED flooding in southern Trinidad on Wednesday as “UNUSUAL, UNPRECEDENTED” and “BIZARRE". “It was a bizarre event...You had what was essentially a stationary cloud just dumping water in that area for a concentrated period of just two hours.” “It was extremely localised...You had bright sunshine in Port-of-Spain and you had five of six feet of water covering the highway in the Claxton Bay area. What occurred was VERY, VERY UNUSUAL. I would estimate that this would happen once in 100 years...This is not something that has ever happened before in that particular area.” The rainfall measured at Claxton Bay was 119 mm or almost one half of the total rainfall expected for the MONTH. There seems to be a pattern of UNUSUAL weather emerging. “In the last three weeks there has been VERY UNUSUAL flooding in specific parts of Trinidad and Tobago starting with VERY UNUSUAL flooding in Diego Martin (and) the East/West Corridor. We have had more or less stationary clouds full of water, dumping water on one point for a very short period of time resulting in terrible flooding.”

ARIZONA - Phoenix Valley Saturday was recovering from this week's monsoon storms, in which 80,000 people were left without power. The storms, which struck Thursday night, packed 100 mph winds and featured more than 1,500 lightning strikes, blowing out windows and doors. Forecasters said more storms were expected in the Valley Saturday night and this morning. This week's storms continued a pattern of ONE OF THE WETTEST ARIZONA MONSOON SEASONS ON RECORD, with nearly 6 inches of rain. This year is the 10th-wettest monsoon ever, with Thursday's storms among the state's BIGGEST AND MOST UNUSUAL. "Not only was it longer, there were several (storms) that went across the same path. The aerial coverage was just tremendous."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney has shivered through ITS COLDEST AUGUST IN 64 YEARS.

Friday, August 29, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
It is not wealth one asks for, but just enough to preserve one's dignity,
to work unhampered, to be generous, frank and independent.
W. Somerset Maugham

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/28/08 -
5.1 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
6.3 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.1 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS

CANADA - The sea floor off the British Columbia coast near Vancouver Island on Thursday was rocked by the strongest in a series of earthquakes to hit the area this week. The 5.9 tremor follows two quakes Wednesday in the same area, both with magnitudes of around five, and several other quakes earlier in the week. The shaking is happening in an active geological region that often produces swarms of quakes, although this is one of the more "vigorous swarms" in the last few years. Earthquake 'swarm' - The series of earthquakes west of northern Vancouver Island, including one eventually measured at a moderate 5.5 rating early Thursday, are no cause for alarm, a federal seismologist says. "Every once in a while we have a swarm of activity." The magnitude-5.5 earthquake, which hit at 5:37 a.m. about 150 kilometres west of the northern tip of Vancouver Island, near the northern end of the Explorer Ridge, is not a portent of the "Big One" predicted for the southern part of the Island. Unlike during quakes on land where there is usually one big one followed by several aftershocks, during ocean swarms, large quakes can happen randomly at any time over a few days, interspersed by smaller ones.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - State seismologists advised the public on Friday to observe precautions when going near Taal Volcano in Batangas, saying the volcano has shown an “increase in seismicity." The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said the increase in seismicity (frequency and distribution of earthquakes) reflects a "low-level episode of unrest," and that Alert Level 1 remains in effect there. The northern portion of the Main Crater rim, in the vicinity of Daang Kastila Trail, may also be hazardous, when reactivated with steam emission and increased thermal activity. The Taal seismic network recorded 10 volcanic earthquakes from 5:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. Thursday. Accompanying the quakes were rumbling sounds. The events were located northeast of the volcano island. "Surface thermal observations however, did not indicate significant change in the thermal and steam manifestations of the Main Crater Lake area."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - 'Fireball’ storm fast approaching - Very rough seas, huge waves and fierce winds are predicted for this weekend along the Eastern and Southern Cape coast. A succession of cold fronts will begin rolling into the Eastern Cape this evening. “The main effect will be felt tomorrow night and Sunday when strong gale winds are expected.” The winds will coincide with a very high spring tide, which will peak on Sunday at 4pm, resulting in a sea swell in excess of seven metres. Not much rain is expected and the cold fronts will consist mostly of heavy winds. “There is a deep low pressure system and strong westerly winds have already begun blowing west of Cape Town. The fetch – the area stretching back to the source of the wind – is very large. Also, it looks like the direction and strength of the wind will be sustained. These are the factors driving the expected huge waves.” The online surf website wavescape.co.za posted a dramatic climatological map of the approaching storm, showing the fetch to be as big as eight southern African countries. The low pressure system is illustrated in shades of red changing to crimson with an EXCEPTIONALLY LOW READING OF 942 isobars at its epicentre. The “gigantic fireball of a storm” is presently looming in the icy Atlantic south-west of the Cape. Waves could reach 10m in the Cape on Saturday and the swells will spread up past East London by Sunday. “The points in the Eastern Cape get bigger and bigger all day Sunday, becoming giant, with all but the most extreme-angled bays completely out of control.” Monday along the Southern to E Cape, the swell will be ridiculous - with HUGE 40-50 foot seas everywhere - ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL LONG RANGE SWELLS and it will last right through to Thursday. In fact Tuesday and Wednesday could be off the charts.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm GUSTAV was 75 nmi W of Kingston, Jamaica.
Tropical storm HANNA was 252 nmi NE of St. Thomas.

Tropical Storm Gustav has battered Jamaica with heavy rains and strong winds, tearing the roofs off houses. The storm, with maximum sustained winds of up to 110km/h (70mph), is expected to strengthen into a "major hurricane" by Saturday. It is forecast to hit the US in the coming days, prompting evacuation plans in New Orleans, three years after the city was hit by Hurricane Katrina. Meteorologists say the storm could make landfall in the US anywhere from south Texas to Florida by Tuesday. Gustav has claimed the lives of more than 50 people in Haiti, and at least eight in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain and winds began lashing eastern parts of Jamaica as the storm struck late on Thursday, raising fears of mudslides and flash floods as seen in Haiti. Gustav was forecast to move towards the Cayman Islands later today.
ATLANTIC - On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center reported the stronger status of Gustav and the development of Tropical Storm Hanna, as well as the development of two additional tropical waves in the Atlantic. Forecasters say it is hard to predict exactly where the storm will make landfall on the Gulf Coast at this time. Gustav is expected to become a hurricane by today. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands by this morning. The NWS has its eye on two tropical waves following Gustav and Hanna. The first large tropical wave is associated with sparse thunderstorm activity and on Thursday was located over the Eastern Atlantic about 775 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. According to forecasters, some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 miles per hour. A second, well-defined tropical wave was located near the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Forecasters said it was expected to emerge over the extreme tropical Eastern Atlantic late Thursday. “Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves westward at about 15 miles per hour,”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - One woman died and one person is missing after torrential rain in Japan prompted evacuation notices for 400,000 people and left rescue workers battling flooded streets to help people to safety. Japan's Meteorological Agency warned of further torrential rains and landslides in Aichi prefecture, where Okazaki and Nagoya is located. Other warnings were lifted as the weather started to clear across the country. The body of a 76-year-old woman was found in a flooded two-story house this morning in Okazaki, which registered RECORD RAINFALL of 146 millimeters (6 inches) in an hour. Eight rivers running through the city overflowed and two bridges collapsed.

INDIA - Two thousand people are now feared dead in the floods caused after a river changed course, submerging hundreds of villages in northern India and sparking claims that the Indian government is playing down the scale of the tragedy.

Thursday, August 28, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
He who desires is always poor.
Claudianus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/27/08 -
5.1 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.3 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.1 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.7 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
5.5 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - A volcano erupted twice Tuesday in a rural area of the Canalete municipality in the northern coastal department of Córdoba. No injuries were reported, but several paths and pastures were damaged. Residents of the zone are being evacuated to protect them from further eruptions. The volcano, Lalorenza, has been inactive for the last five years. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 14W was 227 nmi NNE of Baguio City, Philippines.
Tropical storm GUSTAV was 69 nmi E of Kingston, Jamaica. (It is expected that Gustav will be a powerful hurricane as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.)
Tropical depression 08 was 361 nmi NNE of Fort de France, Martinique. (The depression will likely become a tropical storm later today and could reach hurricane intensity in 3 days.)

Tropical Storm Gustav, downgraded at least temporarily from hurricane status, inched westward over Haiti Wednesday, dumping about a dozen inches of rain on the region. Forecasters warned that it could regain hurricane strength by today. "It's still way too far out to project a path with any accuracy right now. Early this morning, it looked like New Orleans was a likely target, but to get there, it has to go through a lot of offshore production." The Gulf is home to about a quarter of U.S. oil production. "There is nothing in Gustav's path that will hinder development. There is a strong probability that it will be a Category 3 storm by the time it enters the Gulf, and it has the potential to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 storm over the Gulf." Gustav could become the first major hurricane in the Gulf since Wilma during the historic 2005 hurricane season. (map)

NORTH CAROLINA - RECORD RAINFALL from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay flooded areas across the Piedmont on Wednesday, forcing the evacuation of many homes and apartments. Widespread flooding and evacuations were also reported in Cabarrus County, where more than 11 inches of rain fell in some parts of the county since Monday. The record-breaking rainfall of the past two days has almost completely erased their rainfall deficit for 2008. Tuesday (26th) was THE WETTEST AUGUST DAY IN HISTORY and the wettest single day since spring 2004. The National Weather Service warns that water levels could continue to rise as more rain falls and the rain that fell north of the Charlotte area continues to move downstream. The remnants of Fay will move north into the Ohio Valley and west of the mountains.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Thousands of people were marooned in Bihar after the Kosi river breached its banks upstream in Nepal, flooding villages and towns in many areas across the state. The floods have claimed 47 lives so far. Floodwaters entered new areas on Tuesday and have affected two million people so far in Supaul, Araria and Madhepura districts. The breach in the Kosi embankment near Kusaha in Nepal has forced the river to change its course, for the first time since the 1950s. It was not a normal annual flooding, but a catastrophe. Most of the marooned people have been without food and water for five days. Despite the government maintaining that it has air dropped relief material and set up relief camps, crowds of displaced people perched on embankments were seen protesting against inadequate government help.
In camps for the flood displaced, two dead, thousands fall sick - Over 5,000 people displaced from their homes by last week’s Saptakoshi flood and taking shelter at the 23 camps in Sunsari are suffering from various health related problems, mainly pneumonia and high fever. Reports also say that two of them have died while more than two dozens are in serious condition.
The devastation caused by the Kosi has cast a shadow on India's ties with Nepal since the genesis of the calamity could well lie in Kathmandu's apathy towards timely maintenance of the barrage that was breached. The gap has widened to 1.7 km — reports from the disaster zone said it is already 3 km-wide — and bridging it would require a mammoth technical operation. The breach is widening 200m daily. There is a second breach at Bhimnagar. Water is gushing down the 200-year-old channel of Kosi. The flow of the Kosi through the barrage, the river, after the breach, is outpouring a massive 1.18 lakh cusec through its new route crossing through the Bihar plains. Its new meeting point with the Ganga in the south-east is yet to be known since the Kosi's course has become totally unpredictable. Satellite images show an ever widening expanse of gushing water through the affected districts. (map)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Ice cap 'melting more than ever' - The Arctic ice cap keeps melting under the effects of global warming and in August saw its second largest summer shrinkage in history. Measurements on August 26 showed an ice cap of 5.26 million sq km, just below the 5.32 million sq km observed on 21 September 2005. Since the start of August, the Arctic polar cap shrank by 2.06 million sq km. The melting is so fast and extensive it could shrink the ice cap to below the 4.25 million sq km reached in the summer of 2007, the smallest it has ever been observed by satellites. The North Pole itself could even become free of ice by September for the first time in modern history, setting setting a new milestone in the effects of global warming on the Arctic ice shelf. The North Pole melting season begins in mid-June. The ice cap shrinks to its smallest area by mid-September and grows the most in winter by mid-March.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Our great democracies still tend to think that a stupid man
is more likely to be honest than a clever man,
and our politicians take advantage of this prejudice
by pretending to be even more stupid than nature made them."
Bertrand Russell

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/26/08 -
5.6 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG
6.4 NORTHERN PERU
5.0 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.1 SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA

RUSSIA - A strong 6.3 earthquake hit the Lake Baikal area of eastern Siberia today, triggering panic, but there were no immediate signs of casualties or major damage. Russian news agencies reported that services were hit in the regional capital Irkutsk. "Immediately after the tremors in Irkutsk, there were cuts in electricity, mobile connections and the Internet, banks postponed work. Some houses lost roofs." Close to the shore of Lake Baikal, where a major pulp and paper plant is located, the tremor measured eight on the Richter scale.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
GREECE - The mysterious case of the mini-tsunami - A large pleasure boat or an underwater rock slide were blamed for waves up to two meters high hitting beaches in the Gulf of Corinth, injuring four bathers and startling dozens of others. The waves hit the beaches of Kiato, Derveni, Selianitika and Loggos last week, prompting fears there had been an earthquake. Officials were considering two different possibilities. The sea is up to 980 meters deep in some areas of the gulf and that it is possible there had been an underwater rock slide. A geology professor discounted this explanation. “It could not have been an underwater rock slide as no waves were recorded on the opposite shores.”

SOUTH AFRICA - the mystery of odd tides and mini- tsunami conditions along the coast at the weekend has been solved. The NSRI says conditions along the southern, eastern and western coasts were caused by off-shore weather and a mid-ocean mudslide. They said they could now confirm the mini-tsunami last week, which caused damage to some factories in St Helena Bay, was most likely caused by an underwater mudslide. The NSRI in Plettenberg Bay and East London, and the harbour master at St Francis Bay all reported tidal surges at the weekend while volunteers in Buffalo Bay said there was an UNUSUAL draining of the river mouth followed by a resurgence of the tide in a short space of time. The West Coast and the later southern and east coast phenomena are said to be unrelated. After studying the mini-tsunami data, a geologist found the event most likely was caused by an underwater mudslide. According to the hydrographic graphs for Port Nolloth, Luderitz and Cape Town, there was evidence of seismic activity as early as the night of August 20.

Sea buries a Ghanan village, and more may follow - On the southern coast of Ghana, the Atlantic Ocean is rising. Every few years, residents of a string of villages leave their homes and build new ones farther back, abandoning them to the encroaching sand and water. No one knows why the sea has risen here so steadily over the decades, and no scientists have come to collect data. But if predictions of the impact of climate change run true, this could be a preview for many coastal areas. The disaster scenarios for the future are today's reality for the 1,000 people of Totope. Abandoned concrete buildings are half submerged under sand. Thatched huts have been repeatedly moved back. And about one mile offshore, an entire settlement lies deep under the water, submerged many years ago. Fishermen say they have to detour around the old underwater buildings which snag their nets. "Every year the sea comes closer. We keep moving the village and we are being pushed down to the lagoon." The beach is littered in plastic garbage dumped into the ocean from Accra and other towns. The villagers have taken tons of the plastic to the lagoon and covered it with sand, creating a landfill to give them a few more yards of space — and a few more years to live on this spot.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 14W was 159 nmi NE of Baguio City, Philippines.
Tropical depression FAY was 153 nmi N of Mobile, Alabama.
Tropical storm GUSTAV was 66 nmi W of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Tropical depression JULIO was 358 nmi NNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Hurricane Gustav has hit Haiti, killing at least two people. The storm lingered for hours over Haiti's poor, deforested southern peninsula on Tuesday, felling trees and raising water levels on banana, bean and vegetable fields. Gustav's winds then fell to 70mph (110km/h), tropical storm status, although experts warned the storm could regain strength later this week. "Gustav is moving back over water and is expected to regain hurricane strength on Wednesday once it clears the south-western peninsula of Haiti." By Sunday Gustav could become a highly dangerous category three to five hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The Dominican Republic discontinued its hurricane warning but a hurricane watch remains in place for Jamaica and Cuba. Haiti was hit a week ago by tropical storm Fay which left more than two dozen dead and there are fears Gustav could bring further flash floods and mud slides. (map)
Besides Gustav, 3 other tropical systems are brewing in the Atlantic.

Tropical storm Julio killed one soldier in north Mexico and damaged roads and homes as it swept through the northwestern state of Baja California. Three soldiers were traveling on an army vehicle which was swept away in a stream in Mulege, some 500 kilometers (300 miles) from state capital La Paz. Two of the soldiers were found alive. Downpours of rain in the resort-heavy southern coastline of Baja California early Monday damaged roads and caused flooding in three municipalities. Some 2,500 people began to return to their homes Tuesday from temporary shelters as the storm diminished and moved eastwards over Sonora state.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - More than one million people have been trapped by floodwaters in eastern India after heavy monsoon showers caused a major river to shift its course. Rain in Bihar state caused the Kosi river to swell, breach its banks and flow through a channel it had previously abandoned. Water levels in the new river, about 1.6km across, were not receding. The torrential water washed away villages and small dwellings in its path and trapped "not less than one million people in the widespread flooding." The force of the water was washing away about 150m of the Kosi's protective levee every day, and the breach was now about 2km wide. The situation is being called "a catastrophe". Television footage showed thousands of desperate people trying to negotiate the raging waters by forming human chains as rescue helicopters clattered overhead. Human bodies were seen floating in the fast-flowing waters, along with animal carcasses and destroyed homes.

NEW ZEALAND - A massive clean-up operation is under way this morning after two days of rain left a path of destruction in North Canterbury and along the east coast. SH1 between Cheviot and Picton has been closed by up to 30 slips and residents in towns along the coast face a big clean up after up to THREE MONTHS WORTH OF RAIN FELL IN 24 HOURS and left widespread surface flooding. Kaikoura is still isolated by slips and Cheviot is facing about a week without drinking water after a main pipe was washed out. In North Canterbury the raging Eyre River claimed up to 100 dairy cows in North Canterbury early yesterday when a bridge approach was washed away. "Some of the cows were going away at 50 to 60km/h, the river was so wild."

Tuesday, August 26, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers exactly what the Universe is for
and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.
There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
Douglas Adams

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/25/08 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.2 WESTERN XIZANG
5.2 WESTERN XIZANG
6.6 WESTERN XIZANG
5.4 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.8 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA - A powerful 6.6-magnitude earthquake struck at sea off the Indonesian island of Java today, triggering a tsunami warning which was lifted after an hour.

NEW ZEALAND - The earthquake which jolted Hawke's Bay residents last night was the STRONGEST ONSHORE QUAKE IN 20 YEARS in New Zealand, although because of its depth of 30 kilometres, it caused relatively minor damage. Hawke's Bay residents are always comparing quakes to the big one that struck in 1931. But scientists say the 1931 quake was around 1,000 times as powerful. (photo)

PHILIPPINES - a shallow, 5.8 magnitude earthquake of tectonic origin was felt in Southern Leyte province. The possible source of the quake was the Leyte segment of the Philippine fault zone. The municipal hall in San Juan town was cracked, its glass panels broken. Also in San Juan, the Infotech building of the Southern Leyte State University-San Juan campus, and the San Juan National High School were almost destroyed. The San Juan auditorium had cracks on walls and columns. Residential houses in the town were also destroyed, and some mountains in barangays Bobon, Agay-ay, and Cayanog experienced minor landslide, but no one was hurt. A boy in barangay Timba, Anahawan, was hit in the head and was the only casualty reported caused by the earthquake. There was a minor rupture in one lane of a road portion at barangay Timba, Anahawan but the road remained passable, and another crack was seen at the approach of the Das-ay bridge, Hinunangan. The school building at New Guinsaugon, Saint Bernard, had some cracks in the walls, and in San Vicente elementary school at San Juan a two-classroom school building had to be abandoned as it was already leaning to the west side.

CHINA/TIBET - A strong earthquake measuring 6.6 on the Richter scale Monday jolted the Zhongba county in western China’s Tibet region. It was strongly felt in some townships and cracks had appeared in some buildings. There were no reports of casualties. Of the 174 aftershocks, only two were at or above 5.0 magnitude.

VOLCANOES -
Rainfall induces pyroclastic flow in Montserrat - Reports indicate that the wind direction was to the north, at the time of this pyroclastic flow. As a result, ash fall is reported around most of Montserrat. “The flow has enlarged and steepened the rockfall gully over the Gages Wall. Because of this, further pyroclastic flows may occur without any warning, especially when there is heavy rainfall.” (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FAY was 113 nmi NNW of Mobile, Alabama.
Hurricane GUSTAV was 90 nmi SSW of Barahona, Dominican Republic. (Most indications are that Gustav will be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.)
Tropical depression JULIO was 237 nmi NNW of La Paz, Mexico.

Haitians were told to prepare for evacuations as Tropical Storm Gustav formed quickly in the Caribbean Monday on a path to hit the country's denuded southern coast as a full hurricane this morning before moving on to Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. Haiti upgraded storm warnings to hurricane warnings across much of Haiti Monday as Gustav roared up from the south. Floods and landslides were possible across Haiti's southern peninsula, and the forecasts suggested that the eye could pass very closely to Haiti's capital of Port-au-Prince, home to nearly 3 million people.
Forecasters upgraded Gustav from a tropical wave to a depression to a storm within three hours Monday. Its winds had jumped from 35 mph to 70 mph and an eye began to form. For the second time in two weeks, hurricane warnings and watches were posted around Haiti as a potent tropical storm threatened to unload two feet of rain and severe wind today. And though Tropical Storm Gustav is hundreds of miles from Florida, its five-day forecast cone could spell trouble for South Florida and the Keys during the tourist-heavy Labor Day weekend. Computer models have shifted Gustav's projected path more to the west - making South Florida a less likely target but still within the forecast cone, which is subject to wide margins of error.

Tropical Storm Fay topples pecan trees in Georgia - In preliminary assessments, the storm's high wind and torrential rain seemed to take the heaviest toll on Georgia's $128 million pecan crop, especially in southern counties along the Florida line. Pecan trees were vulnerable because they're loaded with immature nuts and foliage. The tropical blast also toppled corn stalks throughout southern Georgia. The National Weather Service said the remnants of Fay would deluge northern Georgia Monday and Tuesday and trigger scattered thunderstorms in the south. Three to 5 inches of rain were expected in the Atlanta area and up to 8 inches in northeast Georgia's Habersham County. Besides the damage to pecans and corn, the storm blew some tobacco leaves off their stalks and the moist condition makes cotton plants vulnerable to a disease known as boll rot.
FLORIDA - The St. Johns River is about seven feet higher than it was before Tropical Storm Fay moved through the region and will continue to cause problems for flooded neighborhoods for weeks. "It's like trying to drain the Atlantic Ocean with a straw. This will take a good month going around the clock." Meanwhile, search and rescue teams evacuated families from 180 DeBary homes on Sunday in an area that will see more homes go under water even without any additional rain. (videos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IRELAND - the landslide which hit the north of Kerry County at the weekend was THE WORST IN 30 YEARS. Up to 5000 are without water after the landslide polluted the river. Salmon and trout stocks were wiped out.

CHINA - At least one person was killed yesterday as THE HEAVIEST ONE-HOUR RAINSTORM IN 130 YEARS hit Shanghai. After steady overnight rain, the storm hit at the 7am-8am peak-commuting hour, trapping hundreds of thousands of people on their way to work in massive traffic jams that lasted for hours. The rain flooded more than 11,000 houses and deposited danger-level water on about 150 roads. The storm was caused by a strong thundercloud cluster and rain of that magnitude in just an hour had not been in the city since 1878. Xujiahui, where the city's central meteorological observation station is located, had about 117 millimeters of rain in the hour. (photo)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
An "apocalyptic" avalanche in the French Alps that killed eight climbers could have been even deadlier - with only luck preventing dozens more from being crushed, alpine experts said. The accident was THE WORST IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGE IN A DECADE. But the number of dead could have been much higher given the time of the avalanche and the fact that it occurred in peak season. Only the first climbers, those nearest the peak, were swept to their deaths. The 30-plus others were hit by a weaker force of snow, as the avalanche had split into two further down the mountain face. The avalanche was set off by a falling serac – an ice block that clings to the mountain side and can be dislodged due to glacial movements. Experts say it is impossible to predict when this might happen. Experts say that global warming is not a factor at this altitude.
The accident has brought the total number of deaths from avalanches in the Alps this year to 100, making it THE WORST YEAR SINCE 1970, which in turn was the worst since the "Winter of Terror" of 1951 when 200 climbers died. This summer season more than 30 people have died in the French Alps, most of them near Mont-Blanc, and a further 60 have perished in the Italian and Swiss Alps. Sunday's disaster was the biggest in what has been a tragic summer on the Alps. The serac which broke off near the summit was the size of a four-story building and, by the time the resulting avalanche hit dozens of climbers toiling up the slope in the hours before dawn, it was travelling at about 60mph. Winter avalanches cause injury by burying climbers, but summer icefall avalanches kill by the impact of the ice, "which is not much different to being hit by a rock". In 1951: during a three-month period 649 avalanches killed 265 people in Austria and Switzerland. Villages and thousands of acres of forests were destroyed.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR-
Images from Google Earth have confirmed that cattle tend to align their bodies in a north-south direction. Wild deer also display this behaviour - a phenomenon that has apparently gone unnoticed by herdsmen and hunters for thousands of years. Scientists say the Earth's magnetic fields may influence the behaviour of these animals. The Earth can be viewed as a huge magnet, with magnetic north and south situated close to the geographical poles. Many species - including birds and salmon - are known to use the Earth's magnetic fields in migration, rather like a natural GPS. A few studies have shown that some mammals - including bats - also use a "magnetic compass" to help their sense of direction. A study ruled out the possibility that the Sun position or wind direction were major influences on the orientation of the cattle. "In Africa and South America, the cattle (were) shifted slightly to a more north-eastern-south-western direction. But it is known that the Earth's magnetic field is much weaker there." Fieldwork revealed that the majority of grazing and resting deer face northward. About one-third of the deer faced southward. This sixth magnetic sense might be "virtually ubiquitous in the animal kingdom". "We need to think about some really fundamental things that this sensory ability provides in animals."

HEALTH THREATS -
Twelve deaths have now been linked to contaminated deli meats in Canada. 26 cases of listeriosis were confirmed nationally. They included 11 deaths in Ontario province, and one in westernmost British Columbia. "We fully expect that both the number of suspected and confirmed cases will increase as this investigation continues and samples continue to be tested." On August 19, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency issued a recall of Maple Leaf sliced corned beef, roast beef, pepperoni, salami, sausages, smoked ham, and turkey thought to be contaminated with the bacteria listeria monocytogenes. The number food products recalled rose to 220 over the weekend, including packaged sandwiches made with the tainted meat, with a total estimated value estimated of $C20 million ($22.05 million).

Monday, August 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The only kind of dignity which is genuine
is that which is not diminished by the indifference of others.
Dag Hammarskjold

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/24/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND - The recent warning of a potential serious storm surge from a veteran meteorologist has ignited a wide-ranging debate among government authorities, businesses and consumers about the potential impact and the best ways to prevent disaster. "We admit a storm surge is a new thing for our industry in Thailand. But when the expert who predicted the possibility of a tsunami in 2004 says it, we have to prick up our ears." The chairman of the national disaster warning committee recently warned that people in Bangkok and adjacent Samut Prakan province could fall victim to the possibility of "THE WORST STORM SURGE IN 50 YEARS" sometime between now and September. A storm surge in the Gulf of Thailand could cause greater damage than the one triggered by Cyclone Nargis on the central plain of Burma in early May. A storm surge or tidal surge is generated by strong onshore winds, usually from a tropical depression or typhoon, which cause the water to pile up above the normal sea level as it approaches the shoreline, building large waves that overwhelm low-lying land. "Because of climate change due to global warming, we cannot be assured that what has never happened in the past will not happen in the future. The tsunami in 2004 was a good example for Thai industry. The warning from a meteorological expert may bring about panic among the people and businesses in the high-risk zone, but ... it's wrong to say that because you're not in a high-risk zone you don't need to prepare for catastrophe. That's because ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FAY was 78 nmi N of New Orleans, Louisiana.
Tropical storm JULIO was 119 nmi NW of La Paz, Mexico.

FLORIDA - Rescue teams are evacuating people from 180 homes near Orlando, where some streets are under 4 feet of water because of flooding from what was Tropical Storm Fay.

Even as Fay begins to slowly wind down, the system that could become Gustave is winding up in the Caribbean. It's too early to say where the system, still called 94L late Sunday, will go or how strong it will be when it gets there, but there is at least one forecast that says it could storm into the Gulf later this week and make a beeline for Louisiana. Strong thunderstorms associated with tropical wave 94L have begun to strengthen and the system was beginning to show some rotation on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 94L a medium (20 percent to 50 percent chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon. [Site note - This morning the potential has been raised to high - over 50% chance. The system could become a tropical depression at any time.] "This system has the potential to really ramp up in intensity."
Meanwhile, satellite imagery late Sunday showed Fay hanging on to a large circulation pattern that covered most of the southeastern United States, and - as with everything Fay - one that will unwind only slowly. It appears that Fay may spend a good part of its last days stalled over eastern Louisiana. Collapsing steering currents were blamed for Fay's expected stall. The storm probably won't leave until a new frontal system moves into southeastern Louisiana, pulling the storm north and east with it. That could happen on Tuesday. "As the high pressure area that has been steering Fay departs the Northeast, another high will descend from Canada into the Great Lakes. Not only will this keep Fay's motion to a crawl, but it could even nearly stall the tropical system over the lower Mississippi Valley early in the week."

Tropical storm Julio is spinning just off the tip of Baja California. "The government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning northward along the west coast of Baja California to Punta Abreojos ... and northward along the east coast to Mulege." Julio is anticipated to track to the west, but could stall or turn east.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - The death toll from monsoon-related accidents has reached 800 and two million people have been displaced following heavy rains across India.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TENNESSEE - The lack of rain makes this THE DRIEST START TO ANY AUGUST IN AT LEAST 60 YEARS, even beating last year’s record-breaking heat wave and drought.

IRELAND - The east coast of Scotland has experienced RECORD-BREAKING AMOUNTS OF RAIN this month, with 196mm of rain falling in Edinburgh in the first three weeks of August, THE MOST FOR ANY MONTH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1958. Dundee, Glasgow and Fife have also seen flash flooding in the past month. Extraordinary pollution levels have been blamed on sewage pipes overflowing with rain water, as well as rain falling on agricultural fields picking up bacteria from manure and washing it into the sea.
IRELAND and much of northern Europe is seeing an increasing number of landslides, coinciding with more extreme weather patterns. Ireland had previously been considered a relatively benign environment as far as landslides were concerned. Landslides were previously explained by long dry spells that could cause hillside bogs to crack. Once rain comes down heavily the dry bog just slips away. “But we can’t say that this year. It is now more likely it is heavy rain causing mobility between a layer of rock and bog above it." Last week in the Geevagh, Co Sligo, area, the mountain “just slid down, the river burst its banks and flowed diagonally across the pitch and the damage has been devastating”.

Sunday, August 24, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
We desire nothing so much as what we ought not to have.
Publilius Syrus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/23/08 -
None 5.0 and higher.
8/22/08 -
5.2 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION
5.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

ARKANSAS - a small earthquake Wednesday in Eastern Arkansas started along a mystery fault line - A small earthquake in Lee County Wednesday was a RARITY for the region, and scientists say that it originated from a fault which has not seen much activity in years. Two earthquakes struck Northeast and Eastern Arkansas late Wednesday night, neither of them causing any damage. The first was 2.6 on the Richter Scale. The second occurred an hour later at 11:35 p.m. and was a 2.7 magnitude along the New Madrid fault. The first earthquake in Lee County was both small and uncommon and occurred along a fault line that has yet to found. The evidence found in Lee County could not have been generated by the New Madrid Seismic Zone. “This was a small earthquake, but it’s VERY UNCOMMON to see events happening in this area. We know that this area has been struck by major earthquakes in the past, and we have found at least three instances where evidence can be found of those major events, but there have been very few actual earthquakes that generated in that area over the last 10 to 15 years...We’ve also found evidence south of Marianna of an earthquake which was at least a 7.2 magnitude event and occurred about 5,000 years ago, so the fault that is in that area has produced some major events in the past.” Researchers are continuing to search the area for other evidence of earthquake events in hopes of establishing a chronological timeline which could indicate when the next event might occur. The New Madrid Seismic Zone is 150 miles long and stretches from Cairo, Illinois, south through Missouri and into west Tennessee.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - A mini-tsunami has hit the Cape west coast without prior warning. Weather experts say UNUSUAL TIDAL PATTERNS have been reported since Thursday and there has been some damage to buildings along the St Helena Bay coastline. Disaster management teams have been placed on high alert. The National Sea Rescue Institute says their offices have been flooded with calls about UNUSUAL tidal activity. There has been concern that there could be a repeat of the devastating tsunami that hit southeastern Asia in 2004, killing more than 300,000 people. Parts of Africa's east coast were affected during the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. A former Cape Town University oceanography says South Africa may be affected in the near future. The Hawaiian monitoring centre did not pick up this mini-tsunami perhaps due to its low measurement on the Richter scale. The South African Navy and the Council for Geosciences are investigating this phenomenon. (photo)

UNITED KINGDOM - Boat owners on Tuesday night counting the cost of storm damage which wrecked around 30 boats off the Gwynedd coast. Gale force eight winds combined with low pressure to create a FREAK TIDAL SURGE, battering sailing dinghies on the sand at Abersoch beach near Pwllheli. Some were wrenched from their trailers and swept into the sea as 6ft-high waves crashed over them amid 45mph gusts of wind. Owners had to be ordered back to shore by coastguard teams as they waded out trying to rescue their boats on Monday night. “There was a lot of damage early this morning, caused by the surf which has come up the beach more than anyone estimated. It’s come right up to the beach huts...No one could have envisaged this. These were VERY ABNORMAL conditions...Quite a few boats have gone missing and floated off." “We had to get a team there to persuade people to get out of the water for their own safety. There was a gale force eight and one to two metre waves at high tide – quite hairy!”

WEST AFRICA - Rising sea levels caused by climate change will brutally redraw a 4,000-kilometre (2500-mile) stretch of west African coastline from Senegal to Cameroon by century's end. "The coast of Guinea will cease to exist by the end of this century. The countries most threatened by this looming environmental disaster are Gambia, Nigeria, Burkina Fasso and Ghana." Sea levels are set to rise up to two centimetres (0.8 inches) per year, enough to devastate large swathes of fragile coastline, especially in low-lying and densely populated deltas. Last year UN climate change experts initially predicted more modest rises of 18 to 59 centimetres (7.2 to 23.2 inches), but in a final version of their report left the upper limit open-ended due to mounting scientific evidence that levels might climb much higher. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had not taken into account the potential impact of runoff from the 3,000-metre (1.9 mile) thick Greenland ice cap, which covers an areas three times the size of Nigeria. Recent studies have suggested the continent-sized ice block could be melting far more quickly than once thought. The devastation wrought by rising sea levels is amplified by increasingly violent tropical storms, which can create sea surges up to three metres (10 feet) high. In August 2007, a storm 5,000 kilometres off the coast of Lagos destroyed protective beach barriers, highlighting the vulnerability of the entire African west coast. Another serious threat is salty sea water intrusion into fertile agricultural land. Environmental experts offer different solutions, but all agree on the futility - and prohibitive cost - of erecting massive sea barriers. (map)

PAKISTAN - Environmental expert fears Tsunami may hit Karachi in future. Active mud volcanoes in Arabian sea, rising sea level due to glacier-melting of North and South poles, and deforestation of mangroves may cause a tsunami-like situation directly hitting the Pakistani coastline, particularly Karachi and Gwadar. In 1945, a Tsunami smashed Pasni and Oarmara towns, killing the total population. “Pakistani coastal areas including Karachi are situated at seismic and tectonic line which produces tsunami, hurricane or cyclone caused by earthquake." When volcanoes burst in the sea, a force produces 20ft to 50ft high waves which move to the coastal line with speed of 600 miles to 750 miles per hour. "Only staggered line plantation of mangroves (7 or above lines) on the Pakistani coastline could save Thatta, Karachi, Gawadar and other cities from a tsunami-like natural disaster, as the country can not afford the trillions of rupees expenditure to build a mud wall along the sea from Thatta to Gawadar." Recently Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia have carried out 7-line plantation of mangroves to save themselves from tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression FAY was 56 nmi N of Mobile, Alabama.
Tropical storm JULIO was 84 nmi SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Fay hit Florida again, becoming THE FIRST U.S. STORM ON RECORD TO MAKE LANDFALL FOUR TIMES IN FLORIDA. Heading north after hitting Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, the storm first made landfall in the Florida Keys on Monday. It then headed out over open water before hitting land for a second time near Naples on Florida's south-western coast. Advancing slowly north-east across the state, Fay reached the Atlantic before veering west and making landfall late on Thursday and again on Saturday. The storm has not reached hurricane strength, but its erratic path, with winds of up to 95km/h (60mph) and heavy rain, has caused major problems. At least 10 people in Florida have died as a result of the storm which first hit on Monday. Winds are now at a maximum of about 40 knots (45mph) and the storm is heading west at about 7mph. Fay was expected to finally leave Florida on Saturday as it heads for Mississippi and Alabama.
Fay's flooding saturates citrus, but tomatoes dodge damage. Citrus trees are standing in water, growers in the world-famous Indian River grapefruit region said Friday. "It is THE WORST SINGLE FLOOD EVENT I HAVE EVER SEEN HERE in my lifetime." Some groves have water tree trunk to tree trunk. "I have never seen a system that has impacted the state of Florida with this much water." 1 inch of water spread over an acre equals 27,154 gallons. "Add up all these acres, and with 10 to 20 inches (of rainfall), you have billions and billions, trillions of gallons of water." Water-filled groves can be seen throughout the 155,000 acres of citrus in Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River and Brevard counties. In the 2007-08 season, that region produced 75 percent of the state's harvest. The acres of standing water threaten that production. Damage to trees starts when they have been in water for at least 24 to 36 hours, and the 72-hour mark has passed. "They have to have oxygen. When the roots are saturated, they can't breathe, and they suffocate and die." The situation is the same for the county's 65 or so nurseries, which have as much as 2 to 3 feet of standing water. Although St. Lucie officials said Thursday that the area's tomato crop was a 100 percent loss, farmers have not yet even planted tomatoes or other vegetables. Some fields that had been prepared for planting sustained damage to plastic-covered planting beds.
Rains and strong wind gusts blitzed Tallahassee, the Florida state capital, for more than 24 hours, knocking down trees and power lines and cutting electricity to more than 12,000 customers. In southern Georgia, Fay's winds toppled trees and utility poles and ripped small pieces off some homes near the Florida border. In the New Orleans area, which is approaching the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, emergency officials were monitoring the storm and telling residents of the potential for heavy rain and the need to avoid low areas that could flood. In Slidell, Louisiana, forecasters predicted 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall late Sunday and through Monday. Forecasts called for 1 to 3 inches of rain in the New Orleans area, on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain. The 11 people killed in the storm in Florida brings the death toll from Fay to 23. Thirteen died in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from flooding. Fay has been an UNUSUAL storm since it was named Aug. 15. “This is UNPRECEDENTED in terms of the slow nature of this storm, the large circulation and the fact that its impacted probably about 90 percent of the state with heavy rains and severe weather.”

JAMAICA could get heavy rains between today and Monday, from a tropical wave currently east of the Leeward Islands. Much closer to the islands, however, is another area of disturbed weather which was expected to begin dousing the islands with heavy rain and strong gusts Friday night. It was just 350 miles off the coast and was moving at a speed of 15 mph. Forecasters say though, that any development of either system should be slow.

Typhoon Nuri, which shut down much of Hong Kong for a day, was gradually weakening on Saturday after making landfall in China. Nearly 160,000 people in 13 coastal cities in Guangdong were evacuated Friday and three people were killed.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FRANCE - rescuers searched for victims today after a major avalanche swept down Mont-Blanc du Tacul mountainside in the French Alps injuring at least seven people.

MINNESOTA - Areas of northern Minnesota could see patchy frost - Here's some news you probably thought you wouldn't hear for another four months. The National Weather Service says areas of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin could see patchy frost this weekend. That's right, patchy frost in August. An UNUSUAL cold-air mass from Canada will bring the lower temperatures. These temperatures are UNCOMMON but not unheard of. Those areas saw temperatures in the 20s at this point in 2004.

Friday, August 22, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The more original a discovery, the more obvious it seems afterwards.
Arthur Koestler

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/21/08 -
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.9 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
5.1 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 TONGA

CHINA - Three people were killed and 70 others were injured yesterday after a 5.9-magnitude earthquake jolted Yingjiang, a border region in southwest China. Two earthquakes shook the border between China and Burma in quick succession. Measuring 5.1 and 5.9, they struck less than four minutes apart more than 200 kilometres (125 miles) from the city of Dali. The epicentre of the quakes, which both hit at a depth of 10 kilometres, were less than 30 kilometres away from a 5.3-magnitude tremor in the area on Wednesday morning. More than 110 aftershocks with magnitudes of 3.6 or less were monitored as of 6 pm on Thursday.

NEW YORK - The New York City area is at "substantially greater risk" of earthquakes - A study by a group of prominent seismologists suggests that a pattern of subtle but active faults makes the risk substantially greater than formerly believed. Among other things, they say that the controversial Indian Point nuclear power plants, 24 miles north of the city, sit astride the previously unidentified intersection of two active seismic zones. 383 known earthquakes occurred from 1677 to 2007. Magnitude 5 quakes occurred in 1737, 1783 and 1884. The researchers say such quakes should be routinely expected, on average, about every 100 years. "Today, with so many more buildings and people, a magnitude 5 centered below the city would be extremely attention-getting. We'd see billions in damage, with some brick buildings falling. People would probably be killed." Many of the faults were discovered decades ago when subways, water tunnels and other excavations intersected them, but conventional wisdom said they were inactive remnants of continental collisions and rifting hundreds of millions of years ago. The results clearly show that they are active, and quite capable of generating damaging quakes. Magnitude 6 quakes, or even 7 — respectively 10 and 100 times bigger than magnitude 5 - are quite possible on the active faults. They calculate that magnitude 6 quakes take place in the area about every 670 years, and sevens, every 3,400 years. No one knows when the last such events occurred, and say no one can predict when they next might come. Unlike in California, many New York quakes occur near the surface — in the upper mile or so — and they occur not in the broken-up, more malleable formations common where quakes are frequent, but rather in the extremely hard, rigid rocks underlying Manhattan and much of the lower Hudson Valley. Such rocks can build large stresses, then suddenly and efficiently transmit energy over long distances. The region's major highways, commuter and long-distance rail lines, and the main gas, oil and power transmission lines all cross the parallel active faults, making them particularly vulnerable to being cut. Three other Eastern areas are somewhat more active — northernmost New York State, New Hampshire and South Carolina — but they have much lower populations and fewer structures. A 2001 analysis by the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranks New York City as the 11th most at-risk U.S. city for earthquake damage.

VOLCANOES -
Volcanic ash from Alaska is now creating spectacular sunset scenes in Western Europe. Reports say volcanic ash cloud from the eruption of the volcano Kasatochi in Alaska has been lifted into the stratosphere and sent drifting by westerly winds to the skies over the Netherlands, Belgium and Demark to create a fantastic glow. When minute particles of volcanic ash meet the sun’s rays at dusk, they produce swirling blood-red twilights.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 39 nmi S of Jacksonville, Florida.
Tropical storm NURI was 90 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.

Tropical storm Fay unleashed rain that wreaked havoc on the Treasure Coast as the storm dumped more than a foot of rain in many locations, overwhelming drainage systems, retention ponds, swales and creeks. Emergency officials described flooding that resulted as UNPRECEDENTED, surpassing even the flooding caused by the devastating hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004. In St. Lucie alone, which suffered the most damage on the Treasure Coast, an estimated 500 to 750 homes had flooded or were in danger of flooding, with water inside homes up to four feet deep. Early estimates of property damage were in the range of $25 million. Thousands of St. Lucie residents were stranded by flooded streets. Most homeowner insurance policies do not cover flood damage.
As if a fourth straight day of rain from Tropical Storm Fay wasn't enough, weary residents are now dealing with quintessentially Floridian fallout: alligators, snakes and other critters driven from their swampy lairs into flooded streets, backyards and doorsteps. The erratic and stubborn storm has dumped more than 2 feet of rain along parts of Florida's low-lying central Atlantic coast this week. The system continued its slow, wet march Thursday by curving back from the ocean to hit the state for a third time. The floodwaters heighten the risk of an encounter with people because the creatures search for a safe place to wait out the storm.
Fay is just the fourth storm in recorded history to hit the Florida peninsula with tropical storm intensity three separate times. The most recent was Hurricane Donna in 1960. An Indiana tourist drowned after going swimming in rough waters churned up by the storm at Neptune Beach. To the south in Volusia County, a second woman also drowned in Fay-generated waves. Flooding is also possible in Georgia, where the southern half of the state's Atlantic coastline was under a tropical storm warning. Some parts of Georgia could get up to 6 inches of rain.

Next Atlantic storm - a large system of Central Atlantic thunderstorms will soon grow into a tropical depression. That system was centered about 650 miles east of St. Lucia and Dominica and was moving northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said the system has "high" potential — more than 50 percent — to form into a tropical cyclone, up from "medium" potential — 20 to 50 percent — on Monday. (satellite photo & early forecast tracks for the tropical wave)

Hong Kong issued its strongest storm warning in five years Friday as Typhoon Nuri brought gale-force winds and heavy rains, halting trade on the financial markets and shutting down most of the city. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the level-nine storm signal for the first time since 2003, signifying winds would intensify, and warned people not to venture outdoors. It said it may strengthen the signal to 10 later today. "Nuri will be rather close to Hong Kong this afternoon and tonight with a chance of a direct hit. It may be necessary to issue higher signals this afternoon." The level-10 signal is the observatory's highest storm warning, indicating hurricane-force winds with sustained speeds of at least 118 kilometres (73 miles) an hour, and gusts of more than 220 kilometres per hour. The top signal has not been issued since 1999 when Typhoon York hit the city, killing three people. The observatory warned of "very rough seas" and mainland authorities had ordered the evacuation of 250,000 people from coastal areas in southern Guangdong province.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SCOTLAND - Roads, businesses and shops in Dundee ground to a halt last night as what one senior firefighter described as THE WORST FLOODING HE HAD EVER SEEN hit the city. And rail services between the city and Aberdeen were suspended, causing chaos for commuters. Heavy rain led firstly to a landslip near Stonehaven but, as the successful operation to clear that was being completed, a stretch of track between Arbroath and Montrose was hit by flooding, leading to the closure of the line. A combination of torrential rain and a high tide caused drains in Dundee city centre to overflow.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Global temperatures recorded so far this year suggest is likely to emerge as THE COOLEST YEAR THIS CENTURY. Temperatures in the first half of the year have been more than 0.1 Celsius cooler than any year since 2000. The principal reason is La Nina, part of the natural cycle that also includes El Nino, which cools the globe. Even so, 2008 is set to be about the 10th warmest year since 1850, and scientists say temperatures will rise again as La Nina conditions ease. "La Nina has faded in the last couple of months and now we have neutral conditions in the Pacific." "2008 will still be significantly above the long-term average. There's been a strong upward trend in the last few decades, and that's the thing to focus on." One of the starkest effects of rising temperatures has been the rapid loss of summer Arctic sea ice, which has accelerated since the year 2000. Earlier in the year, there were indications that 2008 could see even more ice lost than in the record-breaking melt of 2007. Currently, the ice appears to be holding together better than a year ago, although scientists are wary as much of it is relatively fragile ice that formed in a single winter. Canadian authorities have just declared that the Northwest Passage is "navigable", though acknowledging that some parts of it still contain floating ice.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA is facing one of the worst droughts in its history. "We're potentially headed to one of the worst droughts we've ever had in California because of the conditions of storage, the fact that we're expecting very erratic weather patterns, and we have much more demand than the last drought in 1993." A massive mechanical mole surfaced on Wednesday from a nearly 5-year journey under mountains in the final stages of a $1.2 billion tunnel project that will supply extra water to drought-hit Southern California. The 3.8-mile (6.1-km) tunnel, 1,500 feet below the San Bernardino Mountains, is the last piece of a 44-mile (71-km), three-tunnel system that will bring an additional 650 million gallons a day to 19 million Southern Californians. Twenty years in the making, the tunnels will almost triple the amount of water in Southern California's half-empty reservoirs when the project is up and running in 2010. "When water is available we must be prepared to move large volumes of water during a relatively short time and then store it for use during dry periods and emergencies." Climate change has meant less water from melting snow in the Sierra Mountains, one of the main sources of water in the state. This past March to June was THE DRIEST ON RECORD in that region. Levels in the state's two largest reservoirs are at 48 percent and 40 percent capacity - the LOWEST IN MORE THAN 30 YEARS - and are expected to drop further by the end of December.

Century-long droughts have occurred at least seven times across eastern North America. A new study confirms that during periods when Earth received less solar radiation, the Atlantic Ocean cooled, icebergs increased and precipitation amounts fell, creating a series of 100-year droughts. Every 1,500 years, weak solar activity caused by fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic fields cools the North Atlantic Ocean and creates more icebergs and ice rafting, or the movement of sediment to ocean floors. This climate cycle triggers droughts, including some that were particularly pronounced during the mid-Holocene period, about 6,300 to 4,200 years ago. These droughts lasted for decades or even entire centuries. Though modern records show that a cooling North Atlantic Ocean actually increases moisture and precipitation, the historic climate events were different. In the past, the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean also grew colder, creating a drier climate and prompting the series of droughts. The climate record suggests that North America could face a major drought event again in 500 to 1,000 years, though manmade global warming could offset the cycle. “Global warming will leave things like this in the dust. The natural oscillations here are nothing like what we would expect to see with global warming.”

Thursday, August 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
No race can prosper till it learns that there is as much dignity
in tilling a field as in writing a poem.
Booker T. Washington

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/20/08 -
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 62 nmi N of Melbourne, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 196 nmi SE of Hong Kong.

Rains from Typhoon Nuri triggered a series of landslides and floods in the northern Philippines, killing seven people. Nuri is now headed for the Chinese coast east of Hong Kong.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Fay has flooded hundreds of homes in central Florida. Parts of Brevard have seen 18-to-24 inches of rain and could see three to four more inches.
Tropical Storm Fay is continuing northwards, with northern Florida and much of Georgia set for a drenching, the US National Hurricane Center says. Fay is following an erratic path, hugging the Florida coastline, instead of heading out over the ocean. Forecasters say this makes it less likely that Fay will strengthen to a hurricane. A forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicted that the storm's path would take it through Alabama over the weekend.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OKLAHOMA - Oklahoma City received 4.16 inches of rain, pushing the rainfall amount for August to 9.48 inches. That BROKE A RECORD SET BACK IN 1906 of 8.34 inches.

TEXAS - With drains clogged with two days of RECORD-SETTING RAIN, Waco was under a flash-flood watch.

UNITED KINGDOM - Weather forecasters warn of WETTEST AUGUST FOR 100 YEARS. They could be heading for one of their worst summers on record.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Heavy smoke from wildfires in Idaho, Oregon and as far away as California choked Montana valleys Tuesday.

CANADA - In southern Saskatchewan on Tuesday, heat affected most of the province. 13 different communities SET WEATHER RECORDS thanks to the extreme heat which is rather ODD for this time of the year. "We can get some hot weather in August but generally it occurs a little bit earlier in the month, so a little bit UNUSUAL for this late". Val Marie hit 38.7 degrees which was the hottest spot in Canada.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There is no calamity greater than lavish desires.
There is no greater guilt than discontentment.
And there is no greater disaster than greed.
Lao-tzu

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/19/08 -
5.3 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
6.1 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.3 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION

A 5.3-magnitude earthquake hit China's border with Myanmar yesterday, destroying homes and forcing more than 1000 people to evacuate. The latest tremor occurred just one day after China marked 100 days since the country's southwest Sichuan province was hit by the massive earthquake.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - The Bezymianny Volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula has erupted, but poses no danger for local settlements.

BANGLADESH - A mud volcano on Manaung Island in Arakan State erupted on 7 August and destroyed a few acres of paddy farms. The mouth of the volcano spewed molten material up to 150 feet into the sky, inundating several farms located nearby. 1.35 acres of paddy fields were damaged by the eruption. The volcano erupted twice in one day, first at 7 am and again later in the evening. The mud volcano is situated near Zi Chaung Village in Manaung Township, and locals refer to it as "Ngar Byint". The mud volcano typically erupts every rainy season. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - The speed at which the climate is changing has been significantly underestimated, with thousands of Australian homes potentially at risk from rising sea levels. More than 80 per cent of Australians live in the coastal zone, with about 700,000 homes located within 3km of the coast and less than six metres above sea level. Ports, harbours and airports situated near the ocean are also vulnerable to the immediate effects of climate change. "There are vulnerabilities all around the Australian coastline." The scientific community has underestimated the speed at which the climate is changing and there could be devastating effects on many low-lying areas in coastal Australia within the next century. "The pressing reality of climate change is upon us and all the evidence points to coastlines being the most vulnerable." It is time for the government to act "decisively and without hesitation" on the "toughest issue facing our generation".

BRITAIN - Monster waves smash cars - Two cars were written-off and up to 20 others damaged when huge waves smashed into a seafront car park. The vehicles were left overnight in the car park at Cheyne Beach in Ilfracombe, Devon. But a heavy spring high tide and fierce storms brought ”monster” waves crashing over a sea barrier on Monday night. The force of the water was so strong several cars smashed into each other - causing at least two to flip over onto their sides. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 8 nmi N of Melbourne, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 152 nmi N of Baguio City, Philippines.

Fay looks like it could be a 'boomerang storm' - Tropical Storm Fay moved just off the east coast of Florida early today after spawning at least seven tornadoes that ripped across sections of the state. The storm is expected to make a small loop into the Atlantic before paying a return visit to Florida, likely making landfall somewhere in the Jacksonville or St. Augustine area. A hurricane watch has been issued for Florida's east coast, from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound. Fay weakened throughout the evening as its maximum sustained winds dropped to near 50 mph (85 km/hr), with higher gusts. Fay is likely to remain near or over the northeast or east-central Florida coast through Thursday. Fay buffeted Lake Okeechobee with high winds Tuesday afternoon as it moved north and northeast through Florida, leaving a trail of flooding, broken trees and power outages. Fay is expected to produce rainfall amounts of five to 10 inches over east-central and northeastern Florida, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches. Three to five inches of rain were possible in the northwestern Bahamas. Fay's landfall at Cape Romano south of Marco Island was the third for the storm, which came ashore in western Cuba on Sunday night and then again over Key West on Monday afternoon. (photos)
Contrary to what happens to most tropical cyclones that spend hours over land, Fay saw its winds increase as it inched slowly from Southwest Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. Its winds were about 60 mph when it reached land before dawn and had climbed to 65 mph by midafternoon. The storm's internal pressure, another measure of intensity, continued to drop after the storm had spent roughly six hours over land, a RARE event. Also, the storm's rain bands remained well organized, and Fay could maintain its tropical storm strength through its entire crossing of the state. Some of Fay's heaviest rains fell near the northwest edge of Lake Okeechobee and the Palm Beach County coast, where radar estimates show more than 12 inches.

Typhoon Nuri slammed into the northern Philippines early Wednesday, triggering heavy rain and warnings of possible storm surges. Nuri is moving west northwest towards Hong Kong and continued to intensify as it maintained its course towards south China.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEPAL - 50,000 people have been forced to flee after monsoon rains washed away a dam in southern Nepal. Five villages have been flooded and the residents have been evacuated. "We think people may have been killed but we have not been able to verify the number."

IRELAND - it may not yet be the wettest summer ever — but it’s certainly THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD and that’s with 12 days still to go. What was UNUSUAL about this August? One distinctive feature was the appearance of the jetstream further south than usual and cutting across the British Isles, and there are also theories that rainy summers in Europe could be linked to La Nina, an anomalous cooling of the waters in the central Equatorial Pacific. Floods described as 1 in 100 year events are actually coming along much more frequently. “Newcastle has had three 1 in 100 year events in the last eight years...We are getting more violent peaks and troughs in our weather and this is happening in June, July and August.”
After seeing their homes destroyed by a deluge of rain over the weekend, communities across the country are now facing the prospect of having no drinking water. Among the worst hit by the floods have been farmers, who have seen the freak weather cause havoc to the country's grain harvest.
IRELAND will have monsoon weather conditions as regularly as every five years, a leading geography expert has predicted. The freak downpours experienced in recent weeks will not be considered exceptional in the years to come. But, ironically, water shortages and droughts are likely to become a common experience also, as the country experiences extremes of heat as well as rain over the coming years. Local authorities across the country have used phrases like "COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED" and "UNPRECEDENTED" to describe the washout summer. And the floods that have devastated almost every part of the country over the past two weeks are only "a microcosm" for the future. Instead of the one-in-50-year storms that geographical experts anticipate for Ireland at the moment, torrential rain will come as regularly as every five years, by the end of 2030. "Floods that we take as a one-in-50-year occurrence right now, we expect to occur every five to 10 years by the middle of the century." "What's happening at the moment is that a whole set of depressions were queuing up off the Irish coast for weeks. This was brought about because sea surface temperatures warmed up the seas and caused increased evaporation into the atmosphere. And as a result, when all this water hits the warm land it falls. In terms of climate change a lot of this is about adapting to the changes. Even if we cap greenhouse gases at their present position there will still be a certain level of climate change."

JAPAN - A climber and a guide are missing following a landslide on Mt. Shirouma in the Northern Japanese Alps on Tuesday. The landslide reportedly took place near the Daisekkei valley on the Hakubamura side of the 2,932-meter peak. A two-meter thick chunk of earth measuring 30 meters by 70 meters collapsed close to the Nebukabira area in the upper region of the valley. The police said they were unable to make contact with two of the eight people scheduled to stay in a lodge close to the summit. Members of the unit who searched for the missing climbers reportedly found the mountain guide's rucksack. The rucksack contained unopened boxed lunches. The police believe the missing guide and climber might have been hit by the landslide and were working to confirm this.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
All things considered, worse things have happened to better people.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/18/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
There has been an odd bunch of small quakes in the southeastern U.S. lately - on both sides of Tennessee. Just this week a geological engineer predicted that a 5.9 quake on the East Tennessee fault could produce economic damages totaling $45 billion in Kentucky, and similar totals in surrounding cities and states.

PHILIPPINES - After the strongest earthquake to strike Bicol occured on Friday, three more mild tremors were felt on Sunday, and yet another aftershock (5.2) woke up Bicolanos before sunrise yesterday – a series of aftershocks that is already gripping people in fear as it forced disaster control authorities here to make public announcements to allay worries. The latest shake was still an aftershock of the Friday tremor that rocked Bicol up to intensity VI, the highest to hit this area. More than 500 aftershocks were detected since Friday although only six were felt by the residents. “Usually, aftershocks last one to two weeks from the main event.” Hundreds were confirmed hurt when they panicked during Sunday’s strong tremor.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
MINNESOTA - 8/14/08 - People living in the Longfellow neighborhood in Minneapolis were jolted awake in the middle of the night Thursday by a big boom. However, police said they aren’t sure what caused the explosion. This is the second time in a week an unexplained explosion has been heard. "I heard an explosion. It sounded kind of loud and it reverberated," said a man who was jolted awake by the sound. He thought it was coming from Longfellow Park and investigated. "It was rather scary. I walked outside, meandered down half asleep and didn't see anything." Blocks away others heard it too. Police took calls stretching a 14-block radius from the 3000 block of Lake Street to 44th Street. "I knew it wasn't a gunshot, so it had to be a transformer." But Xcel Energy said a transformer didn’t blow and said, "nothing in our reports indicates an explosion from our equipment." Police said they don’t believe the explosions are terroristic or connected to the upcoming Republican National Convention. While authorities aren't saying much about the two explosions, reports are calling them issues of Homeland Security.
Reports of unexplained explosions in Minneapolis actually started years ago. Residents said another explosion was heard in a 14 block area in south Minneapolis from Lake Street to 44th Street East. (video of residents discussing the startling noises)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 72 nmi W of Miami, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 312 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

Tropical Storm Fay moved ashore over southwest Florida on Tuesday, without strengthening into a hurricane, bringing heavy rains to the south of the peninsula. While not particularly ferocious, the weather system knocked down trees, signs and awnings in the low-lying island chain of the Florida Keys and also uprooted some trees in the Miami area. The storm killed more than 50 people in the Caribbean, most of them in Haiti when a crowded bus tried to cross a rain-swollen river and was carried away by the current. The hurricane center forecast that a weakening Fay would track in a northeasterly direction and briefly reemerge over the Atlantic before curving back into the coast of northeast Florida.

Typhoon Nuri is on track to make landfall over the Philippines northern provinces within the next 24 hours. Nuri is packing winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) and gusts of up to 93 miles (150 kilometers) per hour. It is moving quickly toward the north of main Luzon island. Nuri is on a path to slam ashore near northeastern Cagayan province, where a storm alert has been raised to warn fishermen to stay out of the sea. The eye of the typhoon is expected to move across the Calayan group of islands and Ilocos Norte province on Wednesday, before heading across the South China Sea toward Guangdong, China.

Researchers say they have begun to unravel one key to how hurricanes are born. The finding could help meteorologists predict exactly where a storm is likely to form and which of the many small disturbances will grow into potentially deadly hurricanes. "We've uncovered a key ingredient in the birth of hurricanes. We call it a marsupial pouch, because it's like a mother kangaroo's pouch that provides a nurturing environment for the storm and gets it to the point where it gains enough strength to jump out of the pouch." The pouch is a protected region that forms within a developing tropical wave over the open ocean where the wind speed around the pouch closely matches the speed of the tropical wave. This allows the rotation in the lower atmosphere to intensify. This haven for storm development is needed, because conditions in the tropical atmosphere are usually hostile to storm formation. In fact, only about 10% of all Atlantic disturbances with the potential to spawn hurricanes actually grow into storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - A handful of hikers remained unaccounted for after flooding struck a tiny village near the Grand Canyon rim. The search was to resume Tuesday for about 11 people missing near the Havasupai Tribe's village of Supai. It's possible those people might have already left, but authorities would assume they were still in the canyon until that could be determined. Supai and the surrounding area got soaked over the weekend as thunderstorms dumped 3 to 6 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in northern Arizona and about 2 inches more on Sunday. Over the weekend, dozens of tourists were stranded as rushing water swept away rafts, backpacks, food and other supplies. Some hiking trails and footbridges were washed out and trees were uprooted.

BANGLADESH - Heavy rains Monday knocked down mud walls and triggered landslides that buried thatched huts in southeastern Bangladesh and killed 14 people in Chittagong.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - storms which have lashed New Zealand with snow and ice over the past week are set to continue, with more snow forecast. "Since mid-July the Tasman Sea has been a breeding ground for low-pressure systems." The number of large lows that have made their way into the New Zealand region is UNUSUAL.
Three UNUSUAL weather events have combined to create a "polar outbreak" bringing some of New Zealand's HEAVIEST SNOW IN YEARS. 3.5 metres of snow pack has been recorded at Whakapapa ski field on Mt Ruapehu - which was the deepest snowfall there since 1992. Staff at Whakapapa and Turoa ski-fields have reported on their website that they are "snowed under" with work, with patrollers on "the immense task of avalanche control whilst everyone else will be digging". The snow was caused by air from the Southern Ocean moving onto the Tasman Sea before being diverted onto the western parts of the central plateau. Snowfalls have been heavy for three reasons: The Tasman Sea had become a "breeding ground" for low-pressure systems since mid July. The lows had often moved slowly, allowing more time for snow or rain to fall. Cold air from the Southern Ocean had been drawn north and then over New Zealand, tipping the balance toward snow and away from rain.

OREGON - Winter-like storm expected - The rain totals expected to accompany a winter-like storm headed toward the mid-valley on Tuesday could be “pretty impressive.” This type of storm is relatively RARE this time of year. On the satellite and weather maps it looks like a legitimate winter storm. Over the past three days, the mid-valley has experienced “an interesting sequence of three extreme weather events". There was a significant heat wave that set a number of records, and then the temperature dropped nearly 20 degrees. And now the rain is here.
WASHINGTON - Today’s big storm will make it feel like late fall. It is somewhat UNUSUAL to get a storm this intense to drop this far south in summertime. This is more like a late fall or early winter storm.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AFRICA - Maasai 'can fight climate change'- Africa should make more use of the skills of its nomadic peoples to help combat the challenges of climate change. Pastoral communities such as the Maasai in Kenya and Tanzania could pass on survival skills, says a new report. The Maasai have learnt over generations how to farm in deserts and scrublands. Instead of being respected, though, the pastoralists have been marginalised politically, their way of life deemed out-dated and irrelevant. There are between 500,000 and one million Maasai in Africa, who mostly live in northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Pastoralists had been adapting to changes in climate for millennia, and these skills could help them cope with the continent's increasingly hot weather. "However, their adaptability cannot be realised without government support and investment." The UN climate panel predicts Africa will be hit hard by climate change in the next century, with tens of millions facing food and water shortages as rising temperatures are exacerbated by more droughts, floods and rising sea levels.

Monday, August 18, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Man is the only animal whose desires increase as they are fed;
the only animal that is never satisfied.
Henry George

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/17/08 -
5.3 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - State seismologists started analyzing possible ground deformation in the northwest sector of Mayon Volcano in Albay province in Bicol. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) expects the results to help it determine if it needs to raise the alert level there. Seismic experts from Phivolcs said their findings of ground deformation at the northwest sector will be compared with records of the volcano's activity last week. Mayon had shown activity since last week, when it ejected smoke and ash into the air.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm 13W was 647 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm FAY was 103 nmi SE of Havana, Cuba.

Tropical storm Fay has struck Cuba's south coast with high winds and heavy rains, continuing its deadly trail across the Caribbean. The storm is forecast to strengthen as it moves overland before hitting Florida as a possible hurricane. Western and central areas of Cuba, and the Florida Keys are being evacuated. It earlier passed over Haiti, where a bus has plunged into a swollen river, reportedly killing about 50 people. Fay was expected to reach the Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical Storm Fay prediction models estimate a 6 to 8 foot storm surge tide may coincide with an abnormal high tide after midnight tonight. While the storm may increase to a Category 1 hurricane or higher, the chief concern of emergency officials is the storm surge which could flood homes and impact roadways.

Tropical Storm 13W, as yet unnamed, formed just as Tropical Storm Vongfong died out northeast of Tokyo, which it passed by at midday Saturday. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for 13W to make its way west before curving northwest on Wednesday between Okinawa and Taiwan. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, 13W should be churning 386 miles southwest of Okinawa and 154 southeast of Taipei at 9 p.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center, equal to a Category 4 hurricane. Should 13W become a named storm, it will be called Rusa.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - Dam evacuations in Grand Canyon - More than 400 people are being evacuated from a village in the Grand Canyon after an earthen dam burst following a night of heavy rain. Water from the Redlands Dam was causing flooding in Supai, at the bottom of Supai canyon. Dozens of campers have also been airlifted out by the Arizona National Guard and Department of Public Safety. About 16 people in a private boating party were among those who had to be rescued after becoming stranded on a ledge on the Colorado river when their rafts were swept away by flood water. Some hiking trails and footbridges have been washed away and trees uprooted, A flash flood warning was in effect until early evening with more rain threatened.

IRELAND - Extreme weather here to stay, warns climatologist - extreme torrential rain and flash flooding is going to be part of the climate over the coming days and from now on. That was the warning after a weekend that saw yet more parts of the country submerged in several feet of water. Some of the worst-hit parts of the country were in the North, including Belfast, where the city’s new multi-million euro Broadway Underpass was submerged under 20 feet of water. Carlow remained badly flooded last night with more than 100 people evacuated from their apartment block. On Saturday, the torrential rain was blamed for the landslide which pushed debris onto rail lines at Portarlington, derailing the Cork-Dublin train. None of the 310 people onboard were injured. The flooding came just two weeks after Newcastle West in Limerick and parts of north Cork were submerged and just a few days after there was similar havoc in Dublin and other parts of Leinster. “So far this month there has been 16 centimetres of rain, four times the monthly average, and we are only halfway through the month. Indications are that we will have THE WORST MONTH OF ALL TIME, certainly in the east. We are seeing one of the most dismal summers of recent times, a wet summer that has got into a rut since July.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

OREGON - Redmond Airport hit 100 degrees again Sunday after sizzling to 106 degrees Saturday afternoon, SMASHING THE OLD AUGUST 16 MARK of 103, set 41 years earlier, in 1967. The airport reached 100 by 1 p.m. Saturday and didn't drop below the century mark for hours. And here's a quirky thing: Redmond's low temperature Saturday was 53, exactly half of its 106-degree high, a 53-degree temperature swing. Other spots around the region were almost as hot or even hotter Saturday; The Dalles SET A RECORD of 109, while Walla Walla tied a record at 106.

MISSOURI - Weeks after Mississippi flooding, low water concerns - Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing problems, just weeks after one of the worst floods ever. Twice this week, tows pushing barges on the Mississippi north of St. Louis have become stuck in dirt and sand in the navigation channel. That's partly because the massive flooding in June washed ton after ton of sand and soil into the river. But it is also because portions of the Midwest have seen very little rain in the weeks since the flood. The river level is dropping up to a foot a day in some areas. "When you go from extreme high water to low water, that has a tendency to leave behind significant sediment, and it shifts channels unexpectedly." About 60 percent of the nation's agricultural commodities eventually exported overseas are shipped down the river to New Orleans. The change in river levels has been stunning. At Keokuk, Iowa, the Mississippi peaked at 26.9 feet on June 17, 10.9 feet above flood stage. By Thursday, 8/14, it was at 4.2 feet. At St. Louis, the river reached 38.7 feet on July 1. Flood stage is 30 feet. It now stands at 8.4 feet. The Coast Guard closed the river to barge traffic near Winfield, though it is evaluating each tow that arrives and letting some through. It is common for the river level to drop in late summer. Still, this year's extremes have created a difficult situation. The Corps plans a massive dredging operation.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Australia's cotton industry is on the brink of collapse because of the drought and many growers have turned to other farming options.

Canada - Grande Prairie area of northern Alberta suffering from drought. Areas in central and southwest Peace County are expecting low crop yields.

SWEDEN - Heavy rain threatens Swedish harvest - The situation is precarious for Swedish grain farmers. Dry weather in the beginning of the summer hindered sowing and when the crops are now ready for harvesting the heavy rain is causing the problems. "The heavy rain means that the quality of the crops declines. A large part of the cereals harvest in central Sweden has been lost and has become fodder which gives a lower price... Fourteen days to 3 weeks of warm, dry weather, preferably windy, would enable most of it to be collected." However forecasts show no indication of being kind on the farmers. "We will have to wait a couple of weeks for good weather. It is looking generally unstable in the near future with two fronts of low pressure in the coming week." To rub salt into the wounds of the farming sector, grain prices have declined worldwide as a result of good harvests in Europe, the USA, Russia, Australia and China.

INDIA - Thousands of acres of fertile land with sown paddy crop has been inundated by flood waters. Livestock was also washed away. This is the worst flooding in Punjab, which contributes over 50 per cent of the foodgrain to the national pool, since 1988. Hundreds of villagers were still waiting for help while being perched on rooftops of submerged houses and on train tracks.

Sunday, August 17, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There have been a rash of burglaries recently in my neighborhood (until now, a very safe place). A burglar has been entering by cutting the screens on windows that have been left open at night, while people are at home. Last night while working on the webpage, I had my sliding door partly open, but the screen door was locked. I walked out of the computer room to find a person in a hooded sweatshirt standing on my deck, having already cut about 4 inches of the screen on the door! There were lights on, the radio was on, the outside security lights had turned on, and it had to be obvious that someone was home and awake and still this guy was breaking in. There was a lot of excitement after that with 12 cop cars and canine units and a big dragnet around the area. They tracked the guy through several yards, a park and down a street where they figure he got into a car and drove off. Just thought I would mention this in case you've also let your security get a little lax - I was careless and this could have turned out very badly. Keep vigilant and stay safe!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/16/08 -
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
5.4 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
8/15/08 -
5.9 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

PHILIPPINES - a strong 5.9 earthquake shook the eastern Philippines on Friday, with minor damage reported. There were no reports of injuries. The temblor was centered 26 miles(42 kilometers) northeast of eastern Sorsogon city. At the six-story Metro Gaisano Mall in Legazpi city, the quake toppled toys and home decor items and left cracks on walls. Shoppers ran in panic, some of them crying. Aftershocks may occur, but a tsunami was unlikely as there was no "change" monitored in nearby waters.

CALIFORNIA - It’s been so long since the Southern section of the San Andreas Fault ruptured that one scientist called the southern section of the fault “10 months pregnant.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut coming up is a week-long series of events Nov. 12 through Nov. 16 designed to get people interested and excited about earthquake preparedness before it is too late. The scenario of a 200-mile 7.8 rupture of the San Andreas Fault from the Salton Sea, through San Bernardino County and the Cajon Pass, projects about 1,800 deaths, along with a disruption to the water supply for up to six months and 1,600 fires that will overwhelm emergency services. Interstate 15 and Interstate 10 will be severed, cutting off access between valley areas and the desert.

The area where earthquakes may occur off the coast of Washington and Oregon probably extends further inland than previously believed. Seismologists widely believe that earthquakes in subduction zones occur in the region where temperatures are between 150 and 350 C (300 to 650 F). Research shows that water rapidly circulating in an aquifer in seafloor rocks moves a tremendous amount of heat in subduction zones and affects where those key temperatures for earthquake generation occur — they are much further landward than previously thought. Water flowing through basalt formations moves heat out of subduction zones. In the subduction zone off Japan, that heat transfer cools the underground rock, thus shifting the area where earthquakes can be generated more than 50 kilometers (30 miles) farther landward, and closer to coastal cities, than previously believed. "We know the Earth is cooling. However, it's happening differently than you might expect. Water moving through the basaltic formations is a really efficient and effective heat transfer mechanism." Research to examine heat-transfer offshore the Pacific Northwest to determine the eastern boundary of the seismic zone may result in a re-evaluation of the seismic hazard for the greater Seattle metropolitan area.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Visitors have been banned from hiking on Mt Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait because the volcano is spewing red-hot and hazardous materials. The vulcano and its surroundings are in a level-2 alert status as the volcano was still producing volcanic quakes. Should the spewing of red-hot materials with 1,500 celsius degrees hit someone it would likely kill the person. At present the eruption has only happened in the southern part of Mt Anak Krakatau.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 108 nmi NNW of Kingston, Jamaica.
Tropical depression ISELLE was 308 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 13W was 367 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm VONGFONG was 420 nmi E of Tokyo, Japan.

Florida has declared a state of emergency ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Fay, which has swept through the island of Hispaniola. At least four people were killed in flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which share Hispaniola. Some 2,000 people had to leave their homes in the Dominican Republic and hundreds of properties were damaged. Cuban officials have ordered evacuations from low-lying areas in several provinces, where Fay is expected to come ashore today or Monday. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Fay could become a hurricane as it moves towards Cuba then on to Florida. Torrential rainfall of 30.5cm could be expected. Florida's Governor declared a state of emergency, saying Fay threatened a "major disaster".

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MYANMAR - Severe flooding triggered by torrential rains has struck areas of Myanmar still recovering from the severe cyclone that killed more than 84000 people.

POLAND - Four people died and over thirty are in hospital, thousands of trees were broken, hundreds of houses and cars destroyed, roofs torn off during the whirlwind and violent winds that swept over a few of Poland's southern provinces. In the Opolskie Province, strong winds turned over a bus, injuring 15 people. Roofs were torn off from over a hundred houses in the Silesian Province. According to witnesses, the storm destroyed everything in its path.

Friday, August 15, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
As a well-spent day brings happy sleep, so life well used brings happy death.
Leonardo da Vinci

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/14/08 -
5.5 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Spike in activity at Chaiten volcano. The volcano in southern Chile spewed a column of smoke 4 miles (6 kilometers) into the air and rained ash on a nearby village, in what geologists characterized Thursday as a brief spike in activity. The volcano rumbled to life Wednesday evening with a series of medium-strength earthquakes, but returned to a state of low-level activity by the next morning. Chaiten has been active with varying intensity since a May 2 eruption that forced the evacuation of thousands of people around a town of the same name. Residents have yet to return.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 16 nmi ENE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Tropical storm ISELLE was 321 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm VONGFONG was 243 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

Tropical Storm Fay heads to Cuba - Severe weather over the Dominican Republic has strengthened into a tropical storm which is heading towards Cuba. It is expected to travel across Haiti on Saturday, before veering north and hitting eastern Cuba later in the day. Fay is the sixth tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Two of the tropical storms so far, Bertha and Dolly, have reached hurricane strength - with winds of at least 119km/h. US weather forecasters said Fay was not expected to strengthen, but said that torrential rainfall of 12in (30.5cm) could be expected. (map)

Tropical Storm Vongfong formed overnight Thursday and was forecast to pass south of Tokyo midday Saturday.

Tropical Storm Iselle is expected to weaken and become a tropical depression far off Mexico's Pacific coast.

VIETNAM - The death toll from tropical storm Kammuri and subsequent floods, THE WORST FLOODS IN DECADES, has risen to at least 127 in northern Vietnam, with 34 others still listed as missing.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - RECORD MONSOON RAINS in Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh - The monsoon rainfall this year has broken a six-year-old record. "Recorded monsoon rainfall from June 1 to Aug 13 this year in Chandigarh is 782.4 mm (millimeter) which is 34 percent more than normal during this period. "In 2007 and 2006, we had only 458.4 mm and 349.2 mm rainfall, respectively, in this period that was far below the normal rainfall." The normal rainfall in the monsoon season between June 1 to Aug 14 is 585 mm in Chandigarh. Punjab and Haryana have also witnessed record rainfall during the monsoon. The met office recorded 369 mm rainfall in Punjab till Aug 10 which is 36 percent more than normal. In Haryana, the recorded downpour till date is 319 mm which is 28 percent more than the normal rainfall. The rainfall in 2007 and 2006 were 228 mm and 209 mm, respectively, which were also below the normal. "One major reason of this heavy downpour in the region is the early advent of monsoon in 2008 that came June 13. Then it rained at regular intervals in patches without any significant break. This has happened many times before but it is a new thing that we observed in the last 6-7 years in this region."

LAOS - Four people have been killed in flooding and landslides in Laos, where the Mekong river has hit ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN AT LEAST 100 YEARS after several months of UNUSUALLY heavy rain. The government and ordinary people in the landlocked Southeast Asian country have been rushing to complete a 2.5 metre (8 ft) wall of sandbags to stop the chocolate-brown waters inundating the capital, Vientiane. The Mekong, which flows 4,350 km (2,700 miles) from the glaciers of Tibet to the rice-rich delta of southern Vietnam, hit 13.68 metres (44.88 feet) in Vientiane on Thursday, trouncing a high of 12.38 metres (40.61 feet) recorded in 1966, the worst floods in living memory. Downstream, eastern Thailand and low-lying Cambodia are braced for major flooding as the water surge moves slowly south. The high waters will ultimately flow down into Vietnam.

Thursday, August 14, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Do not fear death so much, but rather the inadequate life.
Bertolt Brecht

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/13/08 -
5.5 NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA
5.6 NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - There's lots of volcanic action in the Aleutians arc at the moment, with three volcanoes: Okmok, Cleveland, and Kastochi, all erupting at various points in the last month or so. (map)(plot of the activity of the three volcanoes against each other)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 11W was 218 nmi W of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm ISELLE was 202 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SCOTLAND - Chaos across Fife as two weeks' worth of rain falls in one night - Buildings were flooded, roads closed and a wheelchair-bound man evacuated from his home Tuesday after torrential rainfall in Fife. Freuchie, near Glenrothes, and Cupar, in Angus, were among the areas most badly affected by the downpour, in which half an average month's rain fell in one night. Environmental groups gave warning that flooding is likely to become worse in the future. "Statistics show we are having longer rain events, which can build up more water in rivers, more days of rain, and more rainfall, so the risk of flooding has increased. We have also built on flood plains and not been very clever in the way we have moved rivers."

BRITAIN - A girl of five drowned in a swollen river and a man was crushed to death by a tree as high winds and heavy rain battered Britain and caused transport chaos across the country on Wednesday. Heavy rain fell in the South and East Midlands and gale force winds of up to 60mph buffeted the South Coast. On Tuesday, some parts of the country suffered as much as three weeks' rain in just a few hours. And while skies will brighten briefly today, forecasters warn of another unsettled weekend across England. The damp, humid conditions have also spawned a plague of flying ants. (photos)

CHINA - Severe rainstorms have caused flash floods and landslides that killed at least 28 people and left eight missing in southwest China.

INDIA - Heavy monsoon rains in downtown Mumbai Wednesday caused collapse of two buildings and led to at least 10 death and 60 injuries.

PAKISTAN - Three persons were killed as a heavy downpour BROKE A 28 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD with 168 mm of rainfall in Lahore on Tuesday.

CONNECTICUT - Meteorologists blame an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN for the increase in the frequency and potency of the neighborhood-shaking thunder-and-lightning storms the region has experienced over the last couple of months. Technicians have seen an increase in computer problems consistent with lightning strikes and power surges. There have been 7,579 lightning strokes in New London County in 2008 through Monday. That's almost 6,000 strokes over last year's total, when 1,600 lightning strokes occurred during the same time period. A stroke is a series of electrical discharges comprising a single lightning discharge. A flash of lightning may contain one or a few tens of strokes. This year, an upper-level pool of cold air has made its way down from Canada and the Arctic and settled over the region, helping to create the storms. ”It's a VERY, VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN for this time of year. It's UNUSUAL that it lasted this long.” The pool of cold air has pushed the jet stream down near the Mason-Dixon Line in Georgia. Typically, at this time of year, the jet stream flows along the Canadian border.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/12/08 -
5.1 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Aleutian volcanos continue to cause problems - The ash cloud from Kasatochi Volcano has drifted over 1650 miles into the flight paths of aircraft in Anchorage and caused more than 50 flight cancellations Sunday and Monday. The oval shaped ash cloud was 300 miles at its widest point and moving around 39,000 to 40,000 feet in the air. This is an old ash cloud emitted during the initial eruption last Thursday. The ash might cause more delays over the next few days. Kasatochi may not be through erupting. "Our opinion is that it's still a restless volcano and it would not be a big surprise if we saw some more activity out at Kasatochi." They don't expect more large earthquakes in the region like were experienced last week. "That was VERY UNUSUAL. It's typically PRETTY RARE to see earthquakes that big associated with a volcano. We typically don't see that kind of seismic intensity."
Mount Cleveland also seems to be perking up again. AVO raised the volcano from yellow to orange Monday afternoon because of satellite images of new lava at the summit. "A lot of times when Cleveland produces a strong thermal anomaly at the summit, it's sometimes followed by an explosive ash emission. Sometimes these ash emissions can go high, above 30,000 feet."
Okmok is also at orange. Penair representatives say they are monitoring ash from all three volcanoes to see when they can resume flights to Nikolski and Atka.
For more information on the volcanoes, check out the AVO's website.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 11W was 192 nmi SW of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm HERNAN was 1340 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression KIKA was 953 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropics get restless as heart of hurricane season arrives - After an eerie period of quiet, storm waves off the tropical Atlantic Ocean coast are showing signs of becoming cyclones. Two of them might be on a path toward the Southeast as hurricanes. Computer model runs suggest a third one is about to come off the African coast behind them. That's an unmistakable sign of the Cape Verde season, named for the islands off west Africa. The period is the heart of the hurricane year, when tropical cyclones tend to form off the African coast and turn into powerful hurricanes as they cross the Atlantic. Those storms pose the greatest threat to the Southeastern U.S. The season usually runs mid-August into October. Computer models suggest the first of the two storms could pass somewhere in the vicinity of Puerto Rico at hurricane strength by Friday. The second storm looks healthier than the first. "That's the one everybody's been barking about. We're getting to that time when every blob off the African coast is going to keep us on pins and needles." The hurricane center last week strengthened an earlier prediction of a busy year, giving an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season, up from 65 percent in May. Early season predictions suggested wind and temperature conditions put the Southeast right in the crosshairs, after a few years when the storms tended to move into the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Bertha raised concern when it formed from a Cape Verde wave in early July. But since then, the Cape Verde storms have fallen apart in dry air and strong shearing winds. Things have changed. A southerly jet stream that's kept those winds blowing is headed north. It will be over Charleston by Thursday, and the vaunted Bermuda high will follow it. A southerly Bermuda high tends to bump those storms into the Caribbean. When it goes north, the storms tend to chase it.

Tropical storm Kammuri - Wind and rain from Tropical Storm Kammuri , which affected numerous areas of Southeast Asia, has left thousands homeless in Vietnam and is causing widespread flooding in Laos. This was the fourth tropical storm to hit the area this year and affected countries are struggling to curb rising flood waters yet again with sandbags and earthen dams. In Vietnam, Lao Cai Province is the hardest hit with 37 people dead, 18 injured, and another 38 missing. The floods have cut off some districts in Lao Cai and triggered widespread landslides, but flash floods have caused the largest number of deaths. Residents in Laos are watching the Mekong River rise above flood stage, with the possibility of it spilling into a populated, bowl-shaped valley. Small villages line most riverbanks throughout Vietnam and Laos, and residents are dependent on the waterway as a source of transportation, food and water. These villages are most vulnerable to flash flooding, thus far the most dangerous threat to safety. More flashfloods and landslides are expected since heavy rains are forecast to continue in the next two days. August and September are the heaviest months for rain in Southeast Asia, and more flooding is likely.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - Fresh floods triggered by rains swept away a teenager in northern Vietnam and several boats were destroyed today, and the government struggled to deliver aid to thousands of people hit by THE WORST FLOODS IN FOUR DECADES.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - A RARE warning has been issued for the Tararua Range after THE FIRST RECORDED AVALANCHES THERE IN NEARLY 80 YEARS. Heavy snow falls have resulted in at least two avalanches and conditions that experienced mountaineers say would be similar to the high Southern Alps in winter. The department's Wairarapa area manager said that as far as he knew, the department had never had to warn trampers in the Tararuas about such fierce winter conditions. "Nobody locally can remember there being the sort of circumstances we have got right now. The snow is exceptionally deep with snowdrifts of two to three metres and the potential for further avalanches is very high right now." Snowdrifts are usually about a metre deep after heavy falls. The last recorded avalanche in the range was in 1929. A mountaineer said he could not believe his eyes when he stumbled across an avalanche in the Tararuas at the weekend. "In 30 years climbing in these ranges I HAVE NEVER SEEN CONDITIONS LIKE IT. We were climbing in blizzard conditions and it was reminiscent of the high Southern Alps in winter."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Companies developing genetically modified crops risk creating THE BIGGEST ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER "OF ALL TIME", Prince Charles has warned. GM crops are damaging Earth's soil and are an experiment "gone seriously wrong". A future reliance on corporations to mass-produce food will drive millions of farmers off their land. Huge multi-national corporations involved in developing genetically modified foods are conducting a "gigantic experiment with nature and the whole of humanity which has gone seriously wrong". Relying on "gigantic corporations" for food will end in "absolute disaster", he warned. "If they think this is the way to go, we will end up with millions of small farmers all over the world being driven off their land...That would be the absolute destruction of everything... and the classic way of ensuring there is no food in the future."

Tuesday, August 12, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
For three days after death, hair and fingernails continue to grow
but phone calls taper off.
Johnny Carson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/11/08 -
5.4 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 OFFSHORE SUCRE, VENEZUELA
5.2 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea has started up again and lava is flowing from the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent. After a pause for several days without any lava activity on the surface of Kilauea, scientists Sunday reported a small surface flow moving northward and lava was once again reoccupying the tube system. However, no lava was flowing into the ocean. The paused flow indicates that the eruption, which began Jan. 3, 1983, and over the last several months delivered spectacular lava flow into the ocean at Waikupanaha, had shut down. Lava from the TEB vent, just inside the eastern border of Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park, had been flowing down the mountain, through the beleaguered Royal Gardens subdivision and eventually into the ocean at numerous places along the shoreline.

INDONESIA - Mt Anak Krakatau in the Sunda strait had 120 eruptions and quakes throughout Monday, prompting the Volcanological and Geological Disaster Mitigation Centger to declare the volcano and its surroundings in level-2 alert status. "Even now the volcano is still spewing red-hot lava and thick smoke." However, the frequency of the eruptions and quakes had been declining compared to those in the last two days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 1187 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KIKA was 915 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SCOTLAND has suffered diabolical weather this month. Heavy rains have led to widespread floods, disrupting roads and railways; landslides blocked roads in the Borders; and a dam in Renfrewshire will be demolished after water reached dangerous levels for a second time. Coincidentally, today marks the 60th anniversary of the Great Border Floods across southeast Scotland and Northumberland. August 1948 was a month when gales battered the North Sea, snow fell in Switzerland, thunderstorms plagued Britain and Edinburgh had its wettest month on record.

Tropical downpours are becoming more frequent and the trend seems WORSE THAN EXPECTED, bringing greater risks of flash floods. "As the tropics warm we are seeing an increased frequency in the heaviest rainfall." The trend to extreme soakings was stronger than predicted by computer models "implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes ... may be underestimated". The satellite data showed 2-3 times more intense downpours than predicted by the climate models. The findings were based on a study of the tropical oceans, where satellites can more easily record rainfall. The trends were likely to be matched over land. The U.N. Climate Panel said last year that rainfall was likely to get more intense in many tropical regions, raising risks of flash floods, erosion and mudslides. The U.N. Climate Panel says that shifts in rainfall patterns are likely to disrupt farming in many regions, affecting the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The U.N. Panel predicts more rain overall this century in many parts of the tropics and towards the polar areas with declines in middle latitudes such as the Mediterranean basin, the Western United States and southern Africa.

COLD -
Ocean cycle may explain cool Alaskan summer - temperatures in Alaska this summer have been UNUSUALLY cold. July in Fairbanks averaged 60.6 degrees, almost two degrees below normal. And August is averaging 51.4 degrees, a whopping 7.7 degrees below the long-term norms. One Fairbanks writer said this summer is "becoming the most miserable in recorded history." What seems to have occurred, is a shift to what climatologists call the cold phase of a cycle in the North Pacific Ocean called the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation," or PDO. NASA climatologists said in May the cool phase seems to have begun last fall, and could influence temperature and rainfall patterns in the United States for decades to come, including enhanced hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, milder winters on the east coast, more dry weather in the Southwest and Southeast, and cooler, rainier weather in the northwest. The Arctic Low, a persistent feature of the far northern atmosphere that usually hangs out near Greenland, has shifted west to the northeast corner of Siberia. "That has ... put us into a lot of flow from the northwest, out of the arctic. And anytime you get air off the arctic, it's not gonna be warm." It also brings persistent cloudiness to the skies over Alaska. A big flock of cranes was flying through Fairbanks last week, perhaps a sign of colder weather in the far north and an early fall. The lack of sunshine has impaired the development of wild berries. The cool-phase PDO also tends to produce disappointing salmon runs in Alaska, while enhancing them in the northwestern corner of the lower 48 states. "What really makes it interesting is that we've seen two or three events of snow down to 3,500 feet or so (in the mountains), right in the middle of summer. That's definitely not a usual thing here." When these PDO phases shift, they tend to do so for decades, not the 4- to 7-year cycles typical of the El Nino/La Nina cyclings in the tropical Pacific. The Icebox State could be in for a long haul. "That's what's concerning us, if this is in fact the PDO." The last time the PDO shifted into a cool phase was in 1947. And it stayed there until 1976, bringing cooler, cloudier summers. The big question is how the cool PDO will interact with the longer, global "signal" from global warming. "We're not sure. Maybe they'll cancel each other out for a while."

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Five scientists studying shorebirds in northern Alaska had to take flight after a polar bear showed up at a time of year it should have been out on ice floes hunting seals. The New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society said Thursday that it chartered a plane to fly the experts out early "because of a NEW AND UNUSUAL THREAT: a polar bear stuck on land due to climate change." Polar bears would normally be out on sea ice in spring and summer, "but with recent warming the ice is miles from shore and bears are becoming increasingly trapped on land well away from their usual seal prey." The experts were surveying birds feeding on the shorelines north of Teshekpuk Lake on the Beaufort Sea prior to their southward migrations. "The shorelines have experienced dramatic erosion because of the warming climate...Polar bears have been trapped on land in Arctic Alaska all spring and summer unable to swim out to sea ice and pursue seals. Their condition and how dangerous they might be is unknown." (photos)

Monday, August 11, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Democracy is a process by which the people are free to choose the man who will get the blame.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/10/08 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SAIPAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Almost two years after its major eruption, Mayon Volcano spewed ash again Sunday morning reaching about 200 meters above the crater before drifting east-northeast. The ash-ejection was recorded by seismic sensors around the volcano as an explosion-type earthquake, which lasted for one minute. Thick clouds covering the volcano’s summit at that time hindered visual observation of the phreatic explosion, which occurred at 9:12 a.m. Sunday. “Seismic activity during the past weeks had slightly increased as well as crater glow which had slightly intensified...observations show that Mayon Volcano is undergoing an episode of increased activity probably related to magma movement towards the crater or a post eruptive behavior of the volcano." Although no major eruption is imminent, steam and ash explosions may occur in the following days. Mayor Volcano has been under alert level 1 since 2007.

CHILE - Three months after erupting, for what scientists say they believe was the first time in 9,370 years, the Chaitén volcano continues to threaten to coat this formerly picturesque town with volcanic ash. The volcano eruption in May spared Chaitén, but later the river that runs by the town, swollen with volcanic material and rain, overflowed its banks, burying houses in gray mud. The aftereffects of the eruption destroyed half of the town of 5,000 residents. Uncertainty about if and when they will ever be able to return to the tranquil seaside life they cherished is tearing many of them apart. The number of temblors recorded in the past 10 days averaged 10 a day, compared with 200 to 300 temblors a day at the end of July. But lava has created a new solidified dome that could plug the volcano’s vent — like putting a lid on a pressure cooker — and lead to another explosion. “It is very difficult to say when this is going to stop. There is less material being emitted, but the volcano could reactivate at any moment.” More than 150 known eruptions have occurred from 30 volcanoes in Chile since about the year 1600. “It is just a matter of time for a lot of little towns in Chile.” (photos)

Yellowstone supervolcano is only lukewarm - How hot is the Yellowstone hotspot? At 80 kilometres beneath the Earth's surface it's about 1450 °C – which, for a supervolcano, is only lukewarm. That doesn't mean we won't get another eruption. The last explosion, some 642,000 years ago, created the Yellowstone caldera and blanketed half of the present day US in ash. But the relatively tepid temperature means the supervolcano could be on its last legs. Yellowstone National Park in the US is one of a few dozen volcanic hotspots around the world, along with the likes of Hawaii and Iceland. What causes it to periodically erupt is not clear. Some researchers think it is disturbances in the top 200 kilometres of the Earth's interior, but increasingly the evidence is pointing to a large plume of hot mantle rising up from much deeper, melting its way through the crust. "This [plume] is much colder than other presumed mantle plumes, such as Hawaii." This adds to suggestions that the plume has disconnected from its heat source in the Earth's core. If this is true, it means the plume could be dying – and that the sequence of mega-eruptions could come to an end. "If it doesn't have clear source, as it rises eventually the plume will die out." That doesn't mean there won't be another eruption, however. If temperature estimates are correct, there is still enough heat there to trigger eruptions. "I would suspect there is life in the Yellowstone hotspot. To me, ruling out a future catastrophic eruption would be foolish."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 1052 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KIKA was 766 nmi SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BURKINA FASO - A mudslide unleashed by torrential rains killed at least 40 illegal gold miners in Burkina Faso.

IRELAND - Motorists were rescued from trapped cars and hundreds of houses were damaged after RECORD LEVELS OF RAINFALL caused freak flash flooding across Dublin on Saturday in THE WETTEST AUGUST DAY IN LIVING MEMORY. The clean-up operation is estimated to cost the city thousands of euro after the combination of monsoon-like rain and a high-tide caused drains to block-up, flooding properties.

INDIA - After drought, its now deluge in Andhra Pradesh - After playing truant for about two months, the skies have finally opened up over Andhra Pradesh resulting in an unabated downpour over 24 hours. Incessant rains over the last 24 hours have brought life to a virtual halt in many parts of Andhra Pradesh, including the state capital, Hyderabad. And, the heavy downpour was expected to continue for the next 48 hours on the impact of a depression in Bay of Bengal. The fate of many fishermen who ventured into the sea off the Suryalanka coast in Guntur district is still not known. The death toll is expected to mount as more low-lying areas in districts are fast getting inundated due to flash floods. Water level in Hussain Sagar lake in Hyderabad is rising, causing fears among the people. Standing crops in thousands of hectares, mostly in the delta regions, were inundated and the loss could be in tens of crores of rupees. Almost all rivers in the state are in spate.

CANADA - On Saturday Toronto SMASHED THE PREVIOUS SUMMER RAINFALL RECORD set back in 1986 when 335.9 millimetres of precipitation fell between June 1st and Aug. 31st.

ARIZONA - This year's monsoon on track for record book - Already, there has been more rain in 2008, 5.89 inches, than there was in all of 2007 or 2006, respectively.

COLD-

AUSTRALIA - extreme cold snap forecast - Severe weather was expected across Victoria Sunday, with snow, floods and high winds expected in some parts of the state. High winds and black ice were expected to cause problems on the state's roads. The Weather Bureau said the extreme burst of cold weather was a risk to humans and livestock. "This is probably THE FIRST TIME WE'VE PUT OUT A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS SORT OF THING. There is going to be some very dangerous conditions that could cause flash floods, SNOW IN PLACES IT'S NOT NORMALLY SEEN and other hazards in many parts of the state." Hail was forecast for some parts of Melbourne. The cold snap was expected to pass to Tasmania later this week.

Sunday, August 10, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A weak man has doubts before a decision, a strong man has them afterwards.
Karl Kraus

This morning two successive earthquakes of moderate intensity rocked the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The first tremor, measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale was felt around 1.50 pm and lasted for a few seconds. The second shock of 5.2 magnitude on the Richter scale was felt around 2.57 pm and also lasted for a few seconds. No damages were reported immediately. The islands were earlier rocked by strong earthquakes on June 27 and 28.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/9/08 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.3 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.7 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
8/8/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SULU ARCHIPELAGO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Kasatochi is the third volcano to erupt in the Aleutian Islands in three weeks. Kasatochi Volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands erupted explosively Aug. 7, sending an ash plume more than 35,000 feet into the air and forcing two biologists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to evacuate the island. "Kasatochi went from a quiet volcano to an explosive eruption within 24 hours and with very little warning." Okmok Volcano erupted unexpectedly and explosively on July 12, followed by Cleveland Volcano, 100 miles away, on July 21. Both volcanoes sent ash plumes skyrocketing and caused commercial airline flights to be diverted or cancelled.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Panic gripped people as the sea receded in Kanyakumari on August 4th - About 300 tourists on a visit to the famous Vivekananda Rock Memorial in the sea had a harrowing time after they were stranded as the water suddenly receded 10 to 15 feet from the shore, triggering fears of Tsunami. The boat services to the rock memorial were suspended from 9 am to 12 pm due to the sudden low tide. Boats could not venture to bring back the visitors who had sailed to the rock, about ten-minute ride from the shore in the initial trips before the low tide occurred. A similar low tide had occurred off Kanyakumari a brief while before the killer Tsunami hit many parts of the state and neighbouring Kerala and Puducherry in December 2004. Local people said Monday's phenomenon created a flutter for a while as strong winds and the receding sea bared a string of rocks which remain submerged in normal conditions. Though the low tide had occurred several times after the Tsunami, this was the first time the phenomenon persisted for such a long duration. After the sea became normal, the boats were set out and the stranded people were brought ashore safely.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 908 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KIKA was 667 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.

VIETNAM - At least 125 people were dead or missing in mountainous northern Vietnam today after heavy rains brought by tropical storm Kammuri triggered widespread flash floods and landslides. Massive flooding has cut off entire villages.

Kammuri, the ninth tropical storm of the year, made another landfall in southwest China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 2:50 pm on Thursday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - 2 separate landslides in southwest China's Yunnan Province on Saturday - 6 dead, several missing.

NEPAL - At least 10 people were killed and two others missing in a landslide that hit western Nepal on Wednesday. The landslide has buried several houses in a remote mountain village in Bajura district.

INDIA - Over 140 killed, more than 100 injured in Hill Temple Stampede in Northern India. Rumours of a landslide and boulders hurtling down from a nearby hilltop triggered off a huge panic and a stampede down a narrow mountain trail.
Scores of people died in flash floods and houses collapsed during the past 24 hours due to heavy rain. At least 11 people died Saturday after 12 hours of heavy rain caused houses to collapse in Hyderabad in southern India.

NEW ZEALAND - Heavy rain spurs MOST LANDSLIPS FOR 10 YEARS in Wellington. Wellington was waterlogged, with heavy rains throughout July and 69 millimetres of rain already this month.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TURKEY - Wildfires have blackened 25,000 acres in Turkey's prime tourism region, leaving at least one person dead. Dozens of people were left homeless in Antalya province, where flames destroyed about 60 homes in the village of Karatas. An elderly man's body was found in the wreckage of one house. A second elderly villager was reported missing. "I have dealt my whole life with fires but I have never seen a sight like this ...I can... say that we are experiencing a catastrophe."

Friday, August 8, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What is defeat? Nothing but education;
nothing but the first step to something better.
Wendell Phillips

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
4.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/7/08 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.8 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
8/6/08 -
5.7 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
8/5/08 -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.0 NORTHWEST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
8/4/08 -
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
6.2 BANDA SEA
5.4 CRETE, GREECE
5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
8/3/08 -
5.0 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 AEGEAN SEA
8/2/08 -
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
8/1/08 -
5.0 TAIWAN
5.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.8 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.3 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

CHINA - Three people were killed and thousands of houses destroyed by a powerful aftershock in China's Sichuan province. The 6.0 quake struck near Guangyuan City at 1800 (1000GMT) on Tuesday, August 5th. At least 35 people were injured. Water and power supplies were cut off in Yaodu, and communication facilities were also damaged. More than 3,200 houses collapsed in the region. The aftershock is one of thousands to hit the area since the devastating earthquake in May.
CHINA - The 5.8-magnitude earthquake that hit south-west China on August 1st left 231 people hurt. The quake caused severe landslides and sent tonnes of rock tumbling down mountainsides in the north of Sichuan province on a route that leads to Huanglong and Jiuzhaigou. Along that route in Pingwu County, 540 homes were destroyed and 2450 others damaged.

INDONESIA - A powerful 6.6-magnitude quake destroyed more than 500 homes on a remote island chain in eastern Indonesia early Thursday, but only five people were injured. The quake struck Sumbawa island in the West Nusa Tenggara chain. Three villages were hard hit.

CALIFORNIA - Last week's 5.4 magnitude earthquake happened on a fault scientists say they didn't know about before. The fault is nine miles deep, and about halfway between the Whittier and Chino Faults. "This earthquake was a thrust-type earthquake. Which means one block of the earth moved up past the other block." The fault will not be able to do much more shaking than it did last week.

MORE MYSTERY RUMBLING -
CANADA - JULY 31 - Mystery deepens surrounding Kincardine area explosions - The mystery has deepened surrounding explosions that shook the Kincardine area last Thursday with University of Western Ontario scientists ruling out a meteor shower. “Something pretty significant exploded south and west of Goderich and Kincardine. It could have exploded out in Lake Huron." Highly sensitive devices installed near Lucan by Western to monitor low frequency sound waves detected a series of four impulses that lasted about a minute, starting at 11:12 p.m. on July 31. Five minutes later a low frequency rumbling was detected coming from the Kincardine area. “If you had been in London and it was really quiet outside, you should just have been able to hear the low rumble from these explosions. That’s UNUSUAL at this sort of a distance." With Ontario’s largest nuclear plant located just north of Kincardine, the explosions have triggered international media interest. Officials at Bruce Power have said there was nothing unusual at the nuclear station. South Bruce OPP were inundated with 911 calls shortly after 11 p.m. that night with residents describing walls shaking and windows rattling. The signals detected at Lucan, probably five or six minutes after the original blast, were intense. If it had been caused by a meteor, there should have been a bright fireball in the sky. The university has a camera system at Kincardine aimed at the sky to capture the image of any meteors. “We have already looked during the time interval of interest. It was clear that night and no meteor.” The monitoring devices at Lucan indicate all of the explosions occurred in the same area south and west of the Kincardine area and south of Goderich. In the past, the same instruments have picked up mining explosions in Wyoming in the western U.S. and the Shell refinery explosion in Sarnia. “Based on frequency content and the phenomenology of the signals, these are not consistent from what we would expect from a meteor at all." But the signals also don’t fit another theory, that it was caused by a sonic boom from a jet. “They are not all that consistent with shockwaves you would see with supersonic aircraft.” The closest fit for the signals from the explosion, particularly the low rumbling, would be surface blasting at a mine. The only mine in the area is Sifto Salt’s underground operation at Goderich. A worker at the mine who lives nearby said he has never felt any tremor from blasting at the salt mine that stretches under the lake.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - KASATOCHI VOLCANO near Atka, on the Aleutian chain, erupted Thursday afternoon. Kasatochi is a young volcano with no known historical eruptions, though it is covered in relatively young volcanic debris. The Alaska Volcano Observatory does not have any scientific instruments on the volcano and relies on seismic data from nearby islands. [There has been an ongoing large cluster of moderate and small quakes in the Aleutian Islands near Atka and Adak since Wednesday, including a 5.8 near Adak yesterday. In early May, the nearby island of Adak was hit by three tremors with a magnitude greater than 6 over a two week period. They were followed by hundreds of smaller aftershocks.]

OREGON - Major avalanche reshapes Mount Adams - A two-mile-long avalanche of ice and rocks large enough to rattle seismometers has reworked the southwest face of Mount Adams. The volcano is usually very quiet, with few of the tremors that occur occasionally at other Cascade volcanoes such as Mount Hood. So the seismic signal from Mount Adams on Aug. 1 stood out. All three of the known large avalanches from this area on Mount Adams have occurred in a summer following a winter of especially heavy snow. In the past avalanches, a large part of Avalanche Glacier has tumbled down. It's not clear how much of the glacier remains. Such avalanches are a major force in reshaping Cascade volcanoes between eruptions.

CALIFORNIA - A patch of land in Ventura County's section of Los Padres National Forest where the ground recently heated up to 812 degrees F continues to puzzle firefighters and geologists after weeks of monitoring. "It's a thermal anomaly." The 812-degree temperature was measured Friday about a foot below the surface. No other temperature checks have been made since. The executive director of Los Padres ForestWatch said he had not heard of hot spots in the oil field but was concerned about their potential effect on the nearby Sespe Condor Sanctuary and the forest's fire-prone nature. "It's just a disaster waiting to happen . . . regardless of what the cause is."
In 1943, a Mexican farmer saw smoke coming out of the middle of his cornfield. A week later it erupted into a volcano that within the next year was over 1,000 feet high, and by 1952 was a 1,400 mountain - Paracutian Volcano (Volcán de Parícutin).

Scientists recently found and have been monitoring a fissure spewing "supercritical" water at over 760 degrees F in the Atlantic Ocean. Deep down at the very bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, geochemists have found something truly extraordinary: "It's water, but not as we know it." At over 3 kilometres beneath the surface, sitting atop what could be a huge bubble of magma, it's the HOTTEST WATER EVER FOUND ON EARTH. The fluid is in a "supercritical" state that HAS NEVER BEFORE BEEN SEEN IN NATURE. The fluid spews out of two black smokers called Two Boats and Sisters Peak. Computer models suggest that the fluid that comes out of these black smokers initially seeps down into surrounding cracks in the seabed, gradually getting deeper and hotter as it approached the Earth's magma. Eventually, at 407 °C and 300 bars of pressure, the water becomes supercritical. Because supercritical water is far less dense than liquid water, it shoots up to the seabed like a bubble and it is spat out into the ocean through vents. Supercritical water leaches metals and other elements out of rock far more efficiently than liquid water or vapour. Gold, copper, iron, manganese, sulphur and many more are brought out of the Earth's guts when the water is ejected from the black smokers. In the Pacific, vents tend to cool after a year or so, but it is likely that the Two Boats and Sisters Peak have been active since an earthquake shook the region in 2002. "The magma body underneath is probably enormous."

INDONESIA - Dark clouds again blanketed Mount Anak Krakatau on Sunday, making vulconological officers unable to visually monitor its activities. "Since the past three months, the volcano`s activities have not been clearly visible as dark clouds are blanketing it." The dark clouds were attributed to the bad weather in Sunda Strait, marked by large waves and strong winds. The waves in the Sunda Strait are currently 1.5 meters high.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HERNAN was 640 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KIKA was 741 nmi SE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Rise in 2008 hurricanes predicted - The Atlantic hurricane season is set to be more active this year than initially predicted, with up to 10 hurricanes expected, US meteorologists say. Between 14 and 18 named storms could be produced, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six of them being classified as "major" hurricanes. The adjustment in predictions was the result of atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic which favour storm development - combined with a strong early season activity and the third most active July since 1886. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which ends in November, has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with the peak months running form August to October. Tropical storm Edouard hit Texas on Tuesday, the fifth storm this season. Edouard made landfall between Galveston and Louisiana and brought heavy rains and winds of up to 65mph (100km/h). The near-hurricane strength storm weakened as it moved inland, with flooding the only remaining concern.

PHILIPPINES - Two persons died after Typhoon Julian [Kammuri] battered the Ilocos Region and nearby provinces in Luzon for the past days. The typhoon also caused a tornado that hit the town of Bolinao in Pangasinan Province, destroying several houses.

VIETNAM - Kammuri typhoon hits Vietnam - Water levels of northern rivers are rising. This typhoon has entered the Tonkin Gulf, causing wide-spread rains. Some locations have reported losses caused by Kammuri. Experts forecast that the typhoon would directly hit northwestern provinces of Vietnam and it will weaken to become a tropical depression. The coastal areas of Quang Ninh and Nam Dinh provinces were expected to suffer strong winds of 6-8 grades. Experts have warned people in these regions to beware of whirlwinds, flash floods and landslides. A strong whirlwind collapsed three coal pouring machines in Cua Ong port, Quang Ninh province, injuring two workers. Some areas in Thuan Chau district, northern mountainous province of Son La are flooded because of big rains on August 5-6. Some temporary bridges have been swept away, several kilometres of canals and roads damaged. The water levels of some rivers like the Red River and Thai Binh River are rising.

Typhoon Kammuri swept Macau, China Wednesday with intense storms, causing hundreds of people to be stranded at the ferry terminal and airport with nearly 100 incidents reported, mainly fallen trees, scaffoldings and signs, as well as loosened windows and canopies. The tropical cyclone landed on Yangjiang in Guangdong province after leaving Macau at a speed of 20 kilometres per hour. Team Great Britain's Olympic preparations ground to a halt when their training camp in Macau was caught in the midst of the typhoon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SUDAN - Seasonal heavy rains in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal state caused the Kuom river to overflow in the town of Aweil, making 39,000 people homeless in the region. Floods have displaced a further 1500 people in 14 villages of neighbouring Warrab state. Conditions in the annual floods have not reached levels of previous years.

HEALTH THREATS -
Hundreds of chickens and ducks have been slaughtered to contain a suspected bird flu outbreak in Indonesia as 13 people with flu-like symptoms await laboratory results.

Friday, August 1, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The first step to getting the things you want out of life is this:
Decide what you want.
Ben Stein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.8 quake in the SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/31/08 -
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

CHINA - Two aftershocks today hit the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan, the site of May's devastating earthquake, with the second felt strongly in the provincial capital Chengdu. After the 7.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sichuan on May 12, more than 69,200 people were confirmed dead and some 18,000 are still listed as missing. The second aftershock today occurred at 16:32 local time (9:32 a.m. British time) and lasted for a "relatively long" time. It was measured at 5.8 on the Richter scale and the epicentre was on the border of Pingwu and Beichuan counties, both of which were devastated by the May 12 quake. The first aftershock struck Wenchuan county, the epicentre of the May 12 disaster, about six hours earlier and was measured at 3.9 on the Richter scale. At least three powerful aftershocks hit the Sichuan quake area on July 24, killing two people and injuring dozens. The Olympic torch relay for the August 8-24 Beijing Olympics is expected to take place in Sichuan from August 3-5.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

CHINA reeled Thursday from Tropical Storm Fung-wong, blamed for five deaths and scores of injuries since it made landfall as a typhoon three days earlier. Previously, Fung-wong killed two people in Taiwan and five in the Philippines. Now a tropical storm, Fung-wong spawned a tornado and triggered flash flooding that left four people missing besides the five confirmed dead. The tornado destroyed a clothing factory in Jiangsu's Linze town Wednesday. Four of the 90 people injured later died in a hospital. The flash flooding in Guangdong's Heyuan city, killed one timber worker while four others were reported missing. More than 3,000 people were marooned in the province's Zijin and Dongyuan counties, which remained under a severe weather alert. Fung-wong, the eighth tropical storm to hit China this year, made landfall in Fuqing in Fujian province and later moved to the other provinces. Economic losses in Fujian already exceed $140 million. Authorities had evacuated a total of 751,600 people across southeastern China in advance of the storm. The storm affected the livelihood of 3.86 million people, flooded 277,000 acres of farmland and destroyed more than 1,500 houses. Forecasters warned the weakened storm could still trigger more heavy rains and flooding as it moved northeastward toward Anhui and Shandong provinces.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALASKA - Downpours across Interior Alaska caused waterways including the Salcha and Tanana rivers to spill their banks Wednesday in a continuation of SOME OF THE WORST FLOODING HERE IN DECADES. The two-day rainfall totals were a combined 4 inches. Many of Salcha’s 1,000 residents and their immediate neighbors are unfortunate enough to experience periodic flooding. It occurs almost exclusively when chunks of ice in the Tanana River become lodged at bends, forming dams that flood the riverbanks. But this flooding is the same stuff seen in warmer latitudes. The four inches of rain that fell between Monday and Wednesday left soil across the region saturated. Rivers and sloughs rose, and many low lands transformed into huge puddles. On Wednesday evening, the Salcha River was at ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1968. The Tanana River, at well over 26 feet Wednesday evening, had risen to ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE FLOOD OF 1967. (photos)

CANADA - About 60 to 70 millimetres of rain fell on Gambo in just nine hours starting early Wednesday afternoon, causing flash flooding. The town in eastern Newfoundland says it could cost millions to repair the damage caused by the flooding. Most of the local roads in the town of Gambo were destroyed. Nearly 50 residents have reported flood damage to their homes so far.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

COLORADO - Denver breaks HEAT WAVE RECORD - Scorching temperatures reached well above 90 degrees Thursday to put this day in the weather record books. By mid-afternoon the high in Denver was 95 degrees. That BREAKS THE 104-YEAR-OLD RECORD with 19 consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher. There's no break in the searing heat just yet. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s into next week.

ICELAND - Heat Wave hits Iceland, NEW RECORDS SET - Temperatures rose to 26.2°C in Reykjavík yesterday, which is an ALL-TIME RECORD for Iceland’s capital. In Reykjavík, IT HAS NEVER BEEN AS WARM SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE FIRST REGISTERED 150 YEARS AGO. The heat record set in Reykjavík yesterday was of great significance. The previous record was 24.8°C. The heat wave was caused by interplay of warm air currents and clear skies. Other heat records were also broken yesterday - in Thingvellir National Park in southwest Iceland temperatures went up to 29.7°C, which is also a NEW RECORD. The last record was set in 2004 with 29°C. The Westman Islands saw a NEW RECORD with 21.6°C, as did Patreksfjördur in the West Fjords were the temperatures rose to 24.9°C.

CANADA - Flash flood fears forces evacuation of Baffin Island park - Thawing permafrost, eroding lakeshores, a melting glacier and fears of flash floods at a national park on Baffin Island have forced the evacuation of 21 tourists and led officials to declare much of the wilderness reserve off-limits until geologists and ice experts can assess what appear to be the latest dramatic effects of climate change in Canada's Arctic. The 19,000-square-kilometre Auyuittuq National Park on the island's northeast coast has recently experienced "RECORD-BREAKING" WARMTH and substantial amounts of rain. "This summer's events are beyond anything we're used to. This is no doubt a result of climate change." This week's crisis at Auyuittuq follows June flooding in the nearby community of Pangnirtung, where rain, melting ice and eroding riverbanks forced the shutdown of a key bridge linking the hamlet's two sides. Auyuittuq's dominant feature, the Penny Ice Cap, has been shedding water for weeks and warm weather has destabilized the shoreline around Crater Lake, a popular site in the park. Officials, concerned that the lake could catastrophically drain into a nearby valley, arranged a helicopter evacuation of tourists from the area. "Permafrost has melted in lots of areas. The lakes are held back by moraines that appear to be giving away. We need some advice."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Heat Wave threatens Midwest crops - Late-planted corn and soybean crops are in the hot seat this weekend and early next week as a scorching heat wave bears down upon the Midwest and the Great Great Plains Region. Several states in these areas are forecasted to see temperatures well over the 100ºF degree mark. If extreme heat lasts more than a week, moisture stress would severely impact late planted corn and soybean crops because of their shallow root systems. In June, after this year’s historic flooding in the Midwest, weather conditions have to be close to perfect for the remainder of the summer to help the crops that weren’t destroyed to flourish during a shortened growing season.

Thursday, July 31, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past,
he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.
Sidney J. Harris

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/30/08 -
5.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 GREECE

VOLCANOES -
MONTSERRAT - residue from the partially collapsed dome over the crater of Montserrat's volcano poses a health risk to US Virgin Islands residents and visitors with allergy and respiratory problems. The dome over the crater of the volcano partially collapsed on Monday night, spewing ash an estimated 40,000 feet into the sky. Doctors advised anyone removing ash fragments from vehicles, roofs and other areas to wear long-sleeved garments in order to limit direct contact and exposure to the ash residue.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
EUROPE - At last count 27 people have died in central and eastern Europe, following days of severe storms and flooding. Thousands have been left homeless.

NEW ZEALAND - Wild weather hits South Island. In Levin it was not just rain causing chaos - there was also a fierce wind to battle. Gusting at over 120km, the wind brought down powerlines and flung debris. The easterly wind is PARTICULARLY UNCOMMON. Pressure is building up behind the Tararua ranges, which is then swooping down the mountain side, causing unpredictable wind gusts. For much of the day Levin was without power. In the Hawkes Bay settlement of Haumoana, at least four beachfront properties were damaged and four metre swells threatened to take part of another one out to sea.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Tornado's 50-Mile Path Line was UNUSUAL - The scope of last Thursday's tornado in New Hampshire surprised even researchers at the National Weather Service who said it will be studied for years. "I think anybody would have to be surprised by such a large-scale tornado here in the state of New Hampshire." Researchers said the tornado stayed on the ground almost continuously for about an hour and 20 minutes and its path of damage has been extended to 50 miles long. "It probably will certainly be one of the longest path lines in New Hampshire, and it may be the longest path line. It's a HIGHLY UNUSUAL EVENT, and I think over the next few years, there will be a lot of research into just why we got this tornado and why was it so strong." (video)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRAZIL - PENGUINS are washing up on tropical beaches with scientists unsure why the Antarctic birds are heading closer to the equator than ever before. About 300 penguins have recently been found dead and alive along the coast of the Brazil' s Bahia state, 1200km northeast of Rio de Janeiro. "THIS IS UNHEARD OF. There have even been reports of penguins washing up as far as Aracaju." Biologists believe stronger-than-usual ocean currents had pulled the birds north but others have said overfishing and warmer ocean temperatures may have led the birds to search for food further north than their normal Antarctic and Patagonian habitats.
Hundreds of baby penguins swept from the icy shores of Antarctica and Patagonia are washing up dead on Rio de Janeiro's tropical beaches. "I think we're seeing more young and sick penguins because of global warming, which affects ocean currents and creates more cyclones, making the seas rougher." The vast majority of penguins turning up are baby birds that are unable to out-swim the strong ocean currents as they search for food. Every year Brazil airlifts dozens of penguins back to Antarctica or Patagonia. While it is common to find some penguins swept by strong ocean currents from the Strait of Magellan, THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THIS YEAR THAN AT ANY TIME IN RECENT MEMORY.

Five ways to trigger a natural disaster - mud volcanoes, earthquakes, disappearing lakes, flooding, hurricanes.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
In our age there is no such thing as "keeping out of politics."
Political issues, and politics itself, is a mass of lies, evasions,
folly, hatred and schizophrenia.
George Orwell

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/29/08 -
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIA - An earthquake measuring 5.4 has caused buildings to shake across a wide area of southern California in the US. The epicentre was 29 miles (46km) south-east of central Los Angeles, near Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. There were no reports of any serious casualties or damage. The earthquake was felt all the way down to Tijuana, Mexico and as far east as Las Vegas. Offices and restaurants were evacuated, and residents reported cracks in the walls of their homes. The quake initially felt like a rolling motion - followed by a sudden shaking sensation that lasted about 10 seconds. More than 20 aftershocks were reported following the quake, the strongest measured at 3.8.
It was THE STRONGEST EARTHQUAKE TO STRIKE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN MORE THAN A DECADE.

VOLCANOES -
MONTSERRAT - Following the collapse of the lava dome of the Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat just after midnight on Tuesday, residents are being evacuated from the southernmost part of the occupied safe zone. Without warning, the volcano spewed ash more than 40,000 feet above sea level (12 kilometres high into the stratosphere) due to the partial dome collapse on the west side of the volcano. The Director of the observatory has warned residents to "cover their heads, don't stop for anything, just head north". A series of blasts on the weekend released ash and blistering gases into the atmosphere.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

CHINA - Disasters, triggered by tropical storm Fung Wong, have left five people dead in east China. More than 600,000 people were evacuated as tropical storm Fung-wong made landfall on China's southeastern coast.

Hurricane Genevieve has weakened to a tropical storm far off Mexico's Pacific coast. Forecasters say it is expected to continue losing strength as it moves farther out to sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CANADA - Massive landslide buries highway near Vancouver - Emergency crews searched to make sure no people or vehicles were buried in a landslide that closed a Canadian highway that will play a key role in the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Tons of rock, with boulders described as the size of a large truck, fell on the Sea to Sky highway south of Squamish, British Columbia, blocking the road that is the only direct link between Vancouver and the ski resort of Whistler. No injuries or deaths were reported in the slide, which happened late Tuesday. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said a search crew with dogs was patrolling the site to make sure no one was trapped under the debris. The road is normally very busy during the day.

CHINA - Torrential rain hit south-eastern China on Tuesday after Typhoon Fung Wong hit land in Fujian province, with more than 200 millimetres forecast.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ALASKA - Right now the so-called summer of '08 is on pace to produce the fewest days ever recorded in which the temperature in Anchorage managed to reach 65 degrees. That record was set in 1970, when they only made it to the 65-degree mark on 16 days out of 365. This year, however - with the summer more than half over - there have been only seven 65-degree days so far. And that's with just a month of potential "balmy" days remaining and the forecast looking gloomy. In terms of "coldest summer ever," however, a better measure might be the number of days Anchorage fails to even reach 60. There too, 2008 is a contender, having so far notched only 35 such days - far below the summer-long average of 88. Unless they get 10 more days of 60-degree or warmer temperatures, they're going to break the dismal 1971 record of only 46 such days. The current summer clearly has broken company with the record-setting warmth of recent years. Consider:
• 70-degree days. So far this summer there have been two. Usually there are 15. Last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 49.
• 75-degree days. So far this summer there've been zero. Usually there are four. Last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 23.
So are all bets off on global warming? Hardly, scientists say. Climate change is a function of long-term trends, not single summers or individual hurricanes. Federal meteorologists trace a lot of the cool weather to ocean temperatures in the South Pacific. When the seas off the coast of Peru are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal, a La Nina weather pattern develops, which brings cooler-than-normal weather to Alaska. Water temperatures in the eastern South Pacific have begun to warm this summer - and the weather should eventually follow. The current three-month outlook calls for below-normal temperatures for the south coast of Alaska from August through October - turning to above-normal temperatures from October through December.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Canadian Arctic sheds ice chunk - A large chunk of an Arctic ice shelf has broken free of the northern Canadian coast. Nearly 20 sq km (eight sq miles) of ice from the Ward Hunt shelf has split away from Ellesmere Island, according to satellite pictures. It is thought to be the biggest piece of ice shed in the region since 60 sq km of the nearby Ayles ice shelf broke away in 2005. Scientists say further splitting could occur during the Arctic summer melt. The polar north is once again experiencing a rapid ice retreat this year. Dramatic changes are occurring in the region, affecting the ice both in the open ocean and the ice which is attached to the coast. Researchers had predicted that the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf was likely to experience a major calving event of this nature. Since the early 20th Century, the ice that makes up the WHIS has retreated by about 90%. Loss of sea-ice in the Arctic has global implications. The "white parasol" at the top of the planet reflects energy from the Sun straight back out into space, helping to cool the Earth. Further loss of Arctic ice will see radiation absorbed by darker seawater and snow-free land, potentially warming the Earth's climate at an even faster rate than current observational data indicates.

CALIFORNIA - Yosemite wildfires destroy 21 homes - A massive wildfire has sent towering plumes of smoke and ash over Yosemite National Park, one of the nation's most celebrated wilderness areas. The fire, raging since Friday, has destroyed 21 residences, 32 additional structures and was 40% contained.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
If you live to be one hundred, you've got it made.
Very few people die past that age.
George Burns

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/28/08 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

A series of shallow earthquakes have been startling residents from Oregon to Idaho, and even as far way as Alaska. The tremors, all of which are a 4.0 magnitude or less, have been occurring along the Blanco Fracture Zone off the Oregon Coast. Emergency managers say the quakes are no cause for alarm but shouldn't be handled with absolute complacency either. "Future activity cannot be predicted, however people living anywhere in the Pacific Northwest could potentially experience a magnitude 5 or 6 earthquake. Planning is not a prediction but planning for the worst and hoping for the best is good advice in the disaster preparedness profession." Emergency managers say all Americans should have a 72 hour disaster preparedness kit with food, water, prescription medication and first aid supplies in their homes.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
AUSTRALIA - July 27, 2008 - Sunday afternoon around sunset there were a series of loud explosive sounds heard from one end of Magnetic Island to the other and nobody seems to know what it was. "It could very clearly be heard in Horseshoe and Nelly bays (different people I spoke to) and at first sounded like distant thunder. But it continued at fairly regular intervals for at least an hour - just before sunset - if not longer." Others heard the sound but, as they reside on the West coast, assumed it was just more live firing practice by the air force on Halifax Bay. However, after making enquiries they learned there were no exercises being conducted at the that time. Calls to the Townsville Met Office, the Harbour Master and even Cluden race track (did you have a fireworks display after the races?) resulted in three big "Nos".

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - A volcano in eastern Ecuador has begun spewing lava and has shot a column of ash high into the air. The Reventador volcano's activity on Monday does not pose a threat to surrounding villages or oil pipelines in the area. The volcano last erupted in November 2002, showering the capital, Quito, with volcanic ash. A second volcano in eastern Ecuador, Tungurahua, has also registered "a small increase" in seismic activity. Tungurahua has been spitting out ash and gases intermittently since late last year.

MONTSERRAT - Montserrat's volcano spewed columns of ash thousands of feet (meters) into the sky as scientists reported an increase in seismic activity a week after it vented gases and steam. A series of blasts late Saturday and early Sunday released ash and blistering gases from inside a hardened lava dome topping the tiny Caribbean island's Soufriere Hills volcano. No injuries or damage were reported. Authorities said there was no cause for alarm from a series of small earthquakes. Falling ash coated the abandoned former capital of Plymouth, which was buried in a 1997 eruption that killed 19 people. Wind blowing from the east pushed most of the ash from the volcano over open water.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Tsunami may soon hit Nigeria - An environmentalist has warned about the possibility of advanced flash flooding, otherwise known as tsunami, occurring in the country, stressing that the signs had started emerging. He added that the Federal Government should begin to take cognisance of the early signs of possible outbreak of tsunami, most especially in Lagos State, hence early preparations towards containing the natural disaster were necessary. The environmentalist, who was once the Chief Executive of Abia State Environmental Protection Agency, said the current mild flooding being experienced in Lagos with the increasing erosion of the ocean in the state was a sign that Nigeria was prone to the natural disaster. Though he did not give a specific time when it would break out in the country, he said the possibility was real, having been noted by both foreign and local experts, a reason he said early warning signs should not be ignored.

BRITAIN - at Sidmouth this week, a total of 17 swimmers have received minor injuries after being thrown against rocks in FREAK tides. Coastguards have warned that swimmers have been hurled against rock islands which act as breakwaters in UNCOMMONLY FIERCE tides and surf. “Swimmers have been in a lot of difficulty in a strong south-easterly wind and people have been swept against the rock. It's UNUSUAL. This area is regarded as safe. It was the effect of wind, tide and undertows."

MALAYSIA - Two fishermen drowned, while another was still missing after their boat capsized and broke up after being beaten by strong waves near Tioman Island. In the 1am incident, early Sunday morning, the trio along with another friend were fishing at Pulau Tokong Burung when the mishap occurred. The rough sea and strong waves smashed the boat and threw its occupants into the sea. The one survivor clung onto the wrecked boat and waved towards a tourist ferry which was passing the area about 4am.

THAILAND - Man drowns in ‘FREAK wave’ - Three men were fishing off a rocky outcrop near Paradise Beach when they were swamped by a large wave at about 10 am. Witnesses who saw the men being dragged out to sea managed to rescue two of the men. Also on Saturday, off the coast of Surat Thani, waves up to five meters tall swept two fishermen from their boat. Both men were found alive floating off Koh Samui and recovered by another fishing boat. Heavy rains on the Andaman Sea, especially off the coasts of Ranong, Phang Nga, Phuket and Krabi, over the next few days will create significantly stronger and bigger waves.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FUNG-WONG was 152 nmi WNW of Taipei, Taiwan.

NEW YORK - Off-shore winds turned currents into killers - Strong winds from the south and the remnants of an offshore tropical storm have joined forces to create deadly conditions at area beaches, where seven people are presumed to have drowned over the weekend. "There's all kinds of currents right now." Earlier in the week, Tropical Storm Cristobal came up from the coast of North Carolina and headed toward Canada. Although that storm stayed about 250 to 300 miles off the coast, it kicked up vicious waves that pounded New York-area beaches. "The waves have been running pretty high over the past several days. They're running as high as 8 feet." 2- to 3-foot swells are more common this time of year. At the same time, swimmers are also battling the strong southern winds, particularly at Long Island beaches, which face that direction.

PHILIPPINES - Typhoon 'Igme' - Parts of Northern Luzon will continue to experience heavy downpours given the continued influence of Typhoon "Igme." Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales and Bataan are under signal number 1 while signal number 2 is up over the Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Last spotted 400 kilometers northwest of Basco, Batanes, the typhoon was bearing maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour. The weather disturbance will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and the Visayas. The typhoon with international name "Fungwong" continued to move towards southeastern China.
CHINA - Typhoon Fung-Wong had weakened into a tropical storm by Tuesday (local time) after it struck the east coast of China overnight, forcing mass evacuations and threatening the region with torrential rains and landslides. The typhoon hit the eastern coastal province of Fujian late on Monday night after sweeping the island of Taiwan, where it killed one person. In Fujian and adjacent Zhejiang province, authorities evacuated more than 500,000 people and called in thousands of fishing boats. The storm "continues to have severe effects on Zhejiang". Wenzhou and Taizhou, business and industry centres on the coast of Zhejiang, were lashed by torrential rains. Forecasters in rural Anhui province, inland from China's coast, warned that it too faced violent rains that could trigger landslides and hill collapses.

NEW MEXICO - Half of all the rain Las Cruces has seen this year fell Saturday. A total of 3.54 inches of rain has fallen in 2008 in Las Cruces, 3.36 inches just in July and around 1.6 inches Saturday, thanks to monsoon season weather and remnants of Hurricane Dolly edging north. That moisture caused plenty of problems on the roads due to flooding. While the monsoon season lasts approximately from July 1 to Sept. 1, this weekend's weather has been SOMEWHAT OF AN HISTORICAL ODDITY: "Back in 1980, Hurricane Ellen did something similar. It's kind of a RARE event in the desert to have them maintain a little bit of their identity so far away from landfall."

Typhoons bury a massive amount of carbon in the oceans - A new study, which is the first ever to examine the chemistry of stream water and sediments that were being washed out to sea while a typhoon was happening at full force, will help scientists develop better models of global climate change. The researchers found that, for example, of the 61 million tons of sediment carried out to sea by the Choshui River in Taiwan during Typhoon Mindulle, some 500,000 tons consisted of particles of carbon created during chemical weathering. That’s about 95 percent as much carbon as the river transports during normal rains over an entire year, and it equates to more than 400 tons of carbon being washed away for each square mile of the watershed during the storm. Scientists have long suspected that extreme storms such as hurricanes and typhoons bury a lot of carbon, because they wash away so much sediment. But since the sediment washes out to sea quickly, samples had to be captured during a storm to answer the question definitively.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - flooding destroys towns - A major river has overflowed in the Western Japanese City of Kobe. As much as 120 millimetres of rain fell overnight in the city of Toyama near the eastern Sea of Japan. Officials say they are still assessing the damage but have evacuated 50,000 people from their homes for safety. In the town of Kanazawa, which is known for its antiquities and temples, the Asano river surged into homes and buildings, covering everything with mud. Authorities are assessing damage which they say will be in the millions.

CHINA - Mud flows on the China-Nepal Highway, which was disrupted by a massive landslide on Friday, have injured nine disaster relief staff sent to clear the roadway.

NEW MEXICO - One man was killed and hundreds of people were stranded in the New Mexico mountain town of Ruidoso by flash floods triggered by the remnants of Hurricane Dolly. The deluge also destroyed 12 bridges in the area, all on secondary or residential streets. The flooding began after about nine inches of rain fell Friday and Saturday. Two people were reported missing in the water. The Rio Ruidoso surged from its seasonal average of 4 feet to 12 feet on Saturday. "I don't think anything like this HAS EVER HAPPENED HERE IN AT LEAST THE LAST 40 YEARS." More rain was possible in the area Monday afternoon.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ALASKA is changing, in the trees on the hillsides, the fish in the oceans, and the climate itself – the very things that make Alaska what it is. The spruce and birch of the boreal forest are struggling with warm summers, and shrubs are moving into the tundra. Grizzly bear, moose, and king salmon are showing up in places they haven’t been seen before, and subtropical fish are taking fishermen’s bait in the Gulf of Alaska. Really warm days are more common in the summer and really cold days are less frequent in the winter. In Barrow, hunters say sea ice forms along the shore later in the fall and breaks up earlier in the spring. Bearded seals are harder to find. “These changes are too many, and are happening way too fast to be normal." While the Earth as a whole has warmed about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit over the last century, Alaska has warmed more than 3 degrees in the last 50 years. Alaskans are already grappling with shifting animal species, altered weather patterns, and villages made uninhabitable in part because of shrinking sea ice. The state is strongly affected by El Nino, a phenomenon that occurs every three to seven years and changes ocean currents and air circulation patterns, and by a much longer cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that keeps ocean and air temperatures warm or cool for decades at a time. (During warm periods, changes in air pressure bring more warm, moist air to Alaska from the south.) Alaska is warmer for children today than it was for their parents, but maybe not for their grandparents. The 1920s, ‘30s, and early ‘40s were relatively warm in the state, and the warmest year on record - averaged from five Alaska locations - is actually 1926. So at least some of the recent warming can reasonably be attributed to natural changes. Many scientists believe the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has already switched back to its cool phase, but Alaska temperatures have not noticeably cooled. If the PDO hasn’t switched back, it’s unclear how the climate will change when it does. It’s also unclear whether anthropogenic climate change is making natural cycles like El Nino and the PDO stronger or more frequent. Alaska’s climate has been relatively stable for thousands of years, and the plants and animals that live here are well suited to it. Now, as conditions change, whole ecosystems are changing. "Things are going to get out of control. Our concern is, What are we going to do?”

Monday, July 28, 2008 -

Sorry no update Sunday - computer connection issues - I think I finally have things untangled now.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Cynicism is an unpleasant way of saying the truth.
Lillian Hellman

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/27/08 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.1 MYANMAR
5.9 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
7/26/08 -
5.4 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
7/25/08 -
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.2 ATACAMA, CHILE
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.8 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

BANGLADESH - An earthquake of magnitude 5.6 rocked the Bangladesh capital and nearby districts early Sunday, triggering panic among people who ran out of their homes and jumped from windows resulting in injuries to at least 30. The tremor developed cracks in some dilapidated buildings at the old part of the capital city. At least 20 students of the premier Dhaka University were injured with some of them fracturing their legs as they jumped out of their dormitories in panic. Experts have long been fearing a major earthquake in Dhaka and warned that the city lacked preparations to face any such disaster.

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - The Llaima volcano erupted again on Saturday, sending a stream of lava down its slope and spewing a long plume of ash. At the same time, the Chaiten volcano rumbled once again and could be preparing for another eruption. Recent seismic activity and ash emissions from Chaiten could lead to the "worst-case scenario" for reactivation.

ALASKA - Okmok volcano's alert level went up to code red-warning status early Friday afternoon. The volcano blew more ash into the air at midday. Pilots reported ash to 40,000 feet, with satellite data confirming the cloud. Winds are carrying the ash southeast. Some ash-fall could occur around the immediate area and on the eastern portions of Umnak Island. The Alaska Volcano Observatory says lava or mud flows could also occur in the caldera. The Aleutian arc volcano has been restless since it resumed activity earlier this month.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon FUNG-WONG was 105 nmi S of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression GENEVIEVE was 916 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Powerful Typhoon Fung-wong struck Taiwan early today, closing schools and businesses and grounding domestic and international air traffic. Typhoon Fung Wong made landfall on the east central coast just before daybreak, packing winds of 105 miles per hour. It is expected to drop up to 36 inches of rain on the central portion of the island and perhaps half of that much on its southern and northern extremities, including the capital of Taipei. Fung Wong hit Taiwan just a week after tropical storm Kalmaegi killed 19 people and left six others missing on the island. Dozens of villagers were evacuated from a mountainous region in southern Kaohsiung where several houses were buried by mudslides caused by Kalmaegi.
Typhoon Fung-wong is churning towards China today after it slammed into Taiwan, leaving one dead. Hundreds of residents were evacuated from eastern coastal villages before the storm made landfall, and thousands of fishing boats were ordered to return to port. The storm was losing steam as it swept across the Taiwan Strait towards the mainland. Three people went missing in the northern Philippines at the weekend when Fung-wong brushed past the northern tip of the main island of Luzon, causing widespread flooding, landslides and power outages. (photos)
Before its arrival, Fujian was gripped by FREAK weather on Friday and most of Saturday: heatwave, thunder and lightning, torrential rain and hail stones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
EASTERN EUROPE - At least 16 people died in Ukraine and Romania as severe storms and flooding forced thousands to abandon their homes. Hundreds of towns and villages on both sides of the border have been left without electricity and many bridges have been damaged. Persistent heavy rain near the Prut and Dniestr rivers caused floods that damaged more than 21,000 houses, and forced up to 8,000 people to leave their homes in Ukraine. In Romania, about 9,000 people from 200 villages were rescued.

JAPAN - authorities have told at least 50,000 people to evacuate their homes due to severe flooding, including in the historic western city of Kanazawa. A motorist was buried under a mudslide in the city of Toyama, although he was rescued and suffered only broken bones. As much as 120mm of rain per an our fell overnight in some parts of the Hokuriku region, facing the Sea of Japan.

NEW ZEALAND - A powerful storm cut a swathe across the North Island Saturday, cutting power to tens of thousands of homes, trapping skiers and making driving hazardous. Weather forecasters predicted gale force winds would continue across much of the North Island in the next 20 hours as the storm, tipped to be ONE OF THE WORST IN 10 YEARS, moved over the country. A river burst its banks near the township of Panguru, on the northern side of Hokianga Harbour, and up to 35 people were evacuated. (photo)

INDIA - It has rained heavily for 40 consecutive days in Patna. And that's a record, for the city HAS NEVER EXPERIENCED SUCH A LONG SPELL OF WET WEATHER - not at least in the last one decade. In a normal monsoon year, Patna generally records 38 cm of rainfall from June 10 to July 23. In 2008, the figure for the period stands at 91.9 cm, almost three times normal. "The rainfall in the first 40 days of monsoon alone is almost equal to the volume which was to be recorded during the whole season...Generally, few systems used to pass through the state, bringing lull periods during monsoon but THIS YEAR THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED COMPLETELY."

NEPAL - Heavy rain triggered a landslide in Tibet early on Friday, causing a collapse on the China-Nepal Highway and stranding more than 1000 people.

KOREA - Seven people were killed, six people were injured, with one in a critical condition, and six are missing, in landslides and flash floods triggered by heavy rain that started on Wednesday.

CANADA - the jet stream is in the wrong place this summer. That means that cold and warm air are in the wrong places. And that in turn makes southern and eastern Ontario very wet. The jet stream is like a river of air flowing west to east across North America (and other continents). North of this stream, the air is generally cold and dryish. South of it, warmer and wetter. In winter, the jet stream runs south of the Great Lakes, so Ontario is cold. In summer it's supposed to flow across northern Ontario, near Hudson's Bay. Most of Ontario is usually south of the jet stream, giving them hot air. But not this year. For reasons not fully understood, it has been running across the southern strip of Ontario, putting Windsor and Toronto and Ottawa right on the "clash zone" where warm meets cold. Together, they make rain. "It's been hanging out like an unwanted house guest right over southern Ontario. Storms are kind of lazy. They will often hitch a ride on the jet stream. And that's why you're into the cloud and the drizzle - and yet some sun if there are some breaks." While Ottawa has been doused this year, Toronto has been absolutely drenched. It had six rainstorms of 27 millimetres or more in June and July. The norm would be one every two years in that period. Toronto's 290 millimetres so far in June and July are A RECORD, with a week of July still left. The norm would be 129 mm. The city has had more moisture so far this year than in all of 2007. Storms "seem to stall over Toronto. We're almost stalled into this pattern. The storms are slower-moving, so they have more time to drench you. The jet stream is hanging out from Windsor to Ottawa. Typically it corresponds with the storm track. These storm systems are just lined up like bowling balls on the rack, and they're coming into southern Ontario one after another. We've had rain for seven or eight straight days, and no relenting here. Yet what's remarkable is that we've only had one day without sun ... You're getting a sun day and a rain day on the same day. You can't plan your day. I've never seen the weeds taller."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - fire authorities have ordered the evacuation of regions to the west of Yosemite National Park as a wildfire spread uncontrolled, burning buildings and threatening some 2000 homes. According to the state fire bureau, the blaze has caused "significant structure loss" but details on the damage and the number of buildings affected could not be collected due to the intensity of the fire. The fire is burning north and northeast of Mariposa city, and is about 30km from the entrance to Yosemite, which is usually jammed with visitors on holidays at this time of year. "Across the state in California it is extremely dry and these are CONDITIONS WE REALLY HAVEN'T SEEN IN DECADES. Specifically, where this fire is burning we have not seen a fire burn in the past 100 years."

JAPAN - A heat wave has killed three people.

Friday, July 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"It is of interest to note that while some dolphins are reported to have learned English -
up to 50 words used in correct context - no human being has been reported to have learned dolphinese."
Carl Sagan

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/24/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.5 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.1 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
6.4 KURIL ISLANDS

CHINA - At least three powerful aftershocks hit southwest China's quake area on Thursday, killing one elderly person and injuring more than a dozen, jolting the same area that was devastated by the massive tremor in May. A 5.6-magnitude aftershock struck Qingchuan county in northeastern Sichuan in the early hours of Thursday, killing a 60-year-old. At least four people were injured in the adjacent Ningqiang county in Shaanxi province, including a man who jumped from the second floor of a hotel and suffered fracture on his left arm. It was the first of two pre-dawn aftershock that caused landslides and cut off some roads. "Both were felt strongly and lasted fairly long. Mountains and houses shook vehemently." Another aftershock, measured 6.0 on the Richter scale, hit the same area at 3:09 p.m. local time and was felt in places as far as the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing.

JAPAN's earthquake warning system: another miss, another excuse. Another major earthquake hit Japan just after midnight on Thursday. The epicentre was along Japan's eastern coast in northeastern Iwate prefecture. Magnitude 6.8, depth of 108 km. This is over 500 km from Tokyo, but residents could feel the rolling 1 minute plus earthquake. It was another miss for Japan's early warning system, and though they are still trying to figure out why it took so long, a new excuse/explanation is in the works... The system is supposed to alert any region facing an intensity of "lower five" or more on Japan's 7 point scale that ranks the amount of shaking an earthquake brings to the surface. On several occasions since the system went into effect last fall, Japan has failed to warn or belatedly warned citizens of earthquake intensity of low 5 or more. The Japan Meteorological Agency has blamed this on a weak signal (an earthquake that barely registered lower five, and did so only in a limited area) that was difficult to pick up. On the last such earthquake, it blamed the shallowness of the quake. Quakes that are too close to the surface leave not enough time between the p-waves (used to estimate the magnitude and depth of the earthquake so a prediction of intensity can be made) and the s-waves which travel more slowly and bring destruction. Thursday morning’s (00:26) earthquake, which came from a distant 108 kilometres depth and hit the epicenter with a "high 6" shaking, leaves recourse to neither of those excuses. Seismographs initially picked up the mostly-harmless p-waves at 00:26:35. The devastating s waves struck at the epicenter 10 seconds later. A warning did not go out until 21 seconds later at 00:26:56. The reasons for the delay are now being analyzed. Initial analyses show that there might have been two earthquakes a couple seconds apart - the first, weaker one was estimated to threaten intensity of 3 or 4 and so did not trigger the warning system. The second, stronger magnitude 6.8 quake hit seconds later, might have confused the system. "It might have just taken time to untangle the signals from two quakes." Residents at a distance of 130 kilometres from the epicentre got 3-4 seconds warning. Rokkashomura, home to nuclear waste reprocessing and uranium enrichment plants, is 75 kilometers away. It was hit with an intensity of 4. No damage has been reported there.
Quake damage - 126 injured, roads blocked, 244 buildings damaged - several roads were blocked by landslides. An aftershock registering 3 was recorded at 11:28 a.m. Thursday. More aftershocks registering 4 on the scale are expected in the areas. The Meteorological Agency said rain was likely until early Friday in parts of Iwate Prefecture and other areas affected by the earthquake, where rain had fallen since early Thursday morning. The agency warned people in quake-hit areas to prepare for landslides and other possible disasters. (photo)

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Okmok Volcano continued to erupt Wednesday, 12 days after it first burst into action, and scientists believe nearby Mount Cleveland is still erupting too. The observatory can't be sure what's happening at Cleveland, located on an uninhabited island near the end of the Aleutian Chain, because no seismographic equipment is there and clouds obscured satellite views Wednesday. Scientists know it's been erupting, though, because of reports from mariners and pilots. Additionally, satellite data show thermal anomalies near the summit - a sign that lava is flowing. At Okmok, activity has shifted from episodic, high-amplitude pulses - observed Monday and Tuesday - to nearly continuous mid-level tremors.

CHILE - the eruption of southern Chile's Chaiten volcano is increasing and officials want people living nearby to leave. About 4,500 people were evacuated from the town of Chaiten when the volcano erupted on May 2 but some 30 have returned. Much of Chaiten has been destroyed by flooding of the ash-thickened Blanco river, whose normal course has been impeded by volcanic debris from the volcano.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DOLLY was 482 nmi NE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane GENEVIEVE was 508 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm FUNG-WONG was 502 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan.

HURRICANE DOLLY - Residents and recovery teams began fanning out across south Texas Thursday and cars crept along roads with darkened stoplights as the region got its first look at the destruction left by Hurricane Dolly. Traffic picked up on local roads littered with debris as people emerged for the first time in more than 24 hours after Dolly's soaking rains and punishing winds. After crashing ashore on South Padre Island, the storm ripped roofs from homes, flooded roads and downed power lines, but the Rio Grande levees officials had feared could breach held strong. Hurricane Dolly slammed ashore as a Category 2 hurricane midday Wednesday and then loitered over deep south Texas as a tropical storm, dumping as much as a foot of rain in places and bringing 100 mph winds. Those winds had dropped by half Thursday morning. While THE RAIN SET RECORDS in Brownsville's Cameron County — ranging from six to 12 inches with another three to seven expected overnight — they did not appear to pose the threat to the Rio Grande's levees that had been feared. The river rose steadily through the day in Brownsville, but did not reach flood stage. The torrential rains and fierce winds that lasted much of the day in south Texas still caught some by surprise. By Wednesday afternoon, the community of Laureles north of Los Fresnos had been reduced to a chain of sunken islands, separated from the main roads by floodwaters of two feet or more in places. No deaths were immediately reported in Mexico, but in Tamaulipas 50 neighborhoods were still in danger from flooding. The last hurricane to hit the U.S. was the fast-forming Humberto, which came ashore in southeast Texas last September. The busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season is usually in August and September. So far this year, there have been four named storms, two of which became hurricanes. Federal forecasters predict a total of 12 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes this season. (photos)
Flooding feared along U.S.-Mexico border from Dolly - Concern remains over flooding along the populous Rio Grande Valley. The full effect of the flooding might not be seen for days as rain flows into the region that is home to more than 1 million people. In Mexico, Dolly flooded towns along the northeast coast up to waist level, and a man was killed in the border city of Matamoros when power cables fell into floodwater and electrocuted him.
Dolly might come all the way around - Dolly is moving slowly through South Texas and will continue to produce very heavy rain and flash flooding. The interesting aspect of Dolly is the eventual path. The GFS suggests Dolly will take a path across northern Mexico then north through western New Mexico and through Colorado. By next week, the storm will move back out into the Plains and becomes a low pressure system that moves across the country.

On July 19, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly were all active tropical weather systems, marking THE FIRST TIME THREE ATLANTIC STORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE ON THE SAME DAY SINCE 1950 when the practice of naming hurricanes began.

MARYLAND - Hurricane Bertha broke records when it became the first hurricane to form so far east in the Atlantic Ocean before Aug. 1 and again when it was noted as one of the longest-lived named storms in July and the second longest-lived hurricane ever. Locally, the storm had major affects as well, sending big waves to the resort beaches and prompting 1,500 saves in seven-days, nearly 2,000 in two weeks. Bertha brought waves that are UNUSUAL for July. “We’ve never had this kind of tropical event this early in the season. It just kept pushing water in and pushing water in. The type of surf we saw, we see in August. In this case, we had it in July.” Unusually large waves and strong rip currents came as a shock to some vacationers. Vacationers typically return to the beach during the same time frame each year, and, as a result, mid-July vacationers typically don’t see the big waves that August or September visitors often encounter. This year’s batch of mid-July vacationers saw a different scene in the water however, with big waves and strong rip currents plentiful.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration yesterday warned of more rains over Northern Luzon and western sections of the country as tropical storm "Igme" [Fung-Wong] continued to hover inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Northern Luzon is expected to experience heavy rains as Igme moves closer to Batanes within 48 hours. "Igme" may intensify into a typhoon but is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines before exiting the PAR Monday afternoon or evening. It may make landfall in Taiwan in the next 72 to 96 hours.

NEW ZEALAND - Warnings over "RARE and nasty" storm - A sub-tropical cyclone is developing north of the Tasman Sea and is moving towards Auckland and a number of other North Island regions. Air pressure within the low is rapidly dropping and it is expected to develop into a storm that is equal to a category 2 tropical cyclone by noon Saturday, with winds averaging 120km/hr at the centre and gusts much higher. Heavy rain, massive waves and storm surges could flood a number of low-lying areas across northern New Zealand as the storm moves in. It has the building blocks of something extremely rare and nasty. "It is going to deepen rapidly and has the potential of bringing damaging winds, flooding rains, big seas and strong rip tides. IT MAY WELL BE THE MOST INTENSE SUB-TROPICAL STORM OF THE DECADE."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ROMANIA - A child and a man have been killed and more than 300 people evacuated in northeastern Romania after heavy rain led to widespread flooding. Homes were swept away, roads and bridges were damaged and there have been power outages. Villagers in Suceava county, the worst hit area, were climbing onto rooftops and up trees to save themselves from the swollen rivers. Two days of heavy rains have hit towns and villages in six counties, particularly in Iasi, Neamt and Suceava at the border with Ukraine. Meteorologists have already urged Romanians to expect temperatures this summer in excess of 40 degrees Celsius, together with freak storms and heavy rainfall long periods of hot, dry weather will generate. In 2005 and 2006, Romania was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall and flooding.

CHINA - Twelve people are dead or missing after THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN CENTURIES hit parts of central China. A total of 10 people are confirmed dead after the week-long rains in Hubei province, while two are missing, and over 100,000 have been evacuated. Since early this week, the area around the Hubei city of Xiangfan has experienced THE BIGGEST DOWNPOUR IN 450 YEARS. In a 48-hour period over Monday and Tuesday, the region saw 30.8 centimetres of rain, affecting 1.1 million people. The 450-year timeframe is more than mere hyperbole, as local chroniclers of the past often kept meticulous records of unusual events, such as freak weather phenomena. Torrential rains have affected huge parts of southern and central China this summer, taking a heavy toll in life and material damage.

INDIA - Even as heavy rains continued to lash many parts of the state forcing water levels in major rivers to rise everywhere, weatherman said there would be no respite in coming days as upper air cyclonic circulations will result in heavy downpour in eastern and central parts of UP. Widespread rigorous rains were recorded in the eastern parts of the state on Wednesday. Continuous drizzles and rains, though good for ground-water recharging, are now posing problems for farmers. Agriculture experts say that wet weather is good for paddy but the state needs a break of at least 15 days from rains for plantation of vegetables and other crops. On average every district of the state has received 486.9 mm rains, which is 63% above the normal 298.7 mm, in the monsoon season so far. Not-surprisingly, all major rivers in the state are on the rise, posing a threat of floods in eastern UP and Bundelkhand region.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - The National Weather Service confirmed that a tornado hit Deerfield, where woman died on Thursday. The storm is New Hampshire's FIRST DEADLY TORNADO IN THE STATE'S HISTORY. In Barnstead, "the devastation is a track that runs across the whole town and is about the width of four car lanes, with complete breakdown lanes, and the area is basically flattened." The same storm system also dumped torrential rains in western Maine towns, causing outages that at one point knocked out virtually all of the eastern part of the state. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - The wildfires that have ravaged California this summer are THE MOST EXTENSIVE ON RECORD, burning a RECORD NUMBER OF ACRES.
Twenty-one large uncontrolled wildfires burning across northern California are contributing to the majority of the smoke that's hanging over the area.

Thursday, July 24, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A good man would prefer to be defeated than to defeat injustice by evil means.
Sallust

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Quakes so far this morning -
5.5 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.1 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
6.4 KURIL ISLANDS

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/23/08 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.6 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
6.8 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 ANTARCTICA

JAPAN - 91 injured in 6.8 quake - The strong earthquake jolted northern Japan early Wednesday morning, injuring at least 91 people, trapping hundreds in halted trains and temporarily cutting off power to thousands of homes.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - The Alaska Volcano Observatory says the six-mile-wide caldera at Okmok volcano has several vents erupting simultaneously. Billowing ash clouds are reaching heights of up to 20,000 feet as seismic activity continues to fluctuate. Scientists are working with the National Weather Service to provide information to the aviation community as to the direction the ash clouds are drifting. Geologists say they have been very busy trying to monitor not only the Okmok eruption, but also the erupting Cleveland Volcano nearby. 'I can't remember the last time we managed two eruptions at once, especially two so closely spaced on the volcanic arc. So it's both a busy and interesting time for us.'

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - Wild weather - Massive waves, like one between Pukerua Bay and Paekakariki, hurled debris over roads and almost dragged a man to his death, while slips and flooding derailed a train in the lower North Island. High winds prevented planes from taking off or landing. Huge waves pounding the foreshore along Centennial Highway earlier were scary for drivers, and roading contractors continuously swept the highway to clear rocks and debris. A Paekakariki resident said he had never seen so much debris cluttering the highway. A long-time Paekakariki resident said storm surges were THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE HE HAD SEEN IN THE AREA SINCE 1976. (photos)

AUSTRALIA - The low pressure system that has caused bleak weather in parts of Queensland is still whipping up large seas on the Gold Coast. Three-metre waves are breaking on some Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches. There are gale force winds offshore from central Queensland to the far north.

FLORIDA - Dangerous surf swells at beach in Pensacola - Six people at a Perdido Key beach were rescued from perilous surf conditions churned up by Hurricane Dolly on Tuesday as the Category 1 storm headed for landfall on the U.S. - Mexico border. A benefit of the waves is the currents pushing jellyfish to the shores. Jellyfish have been a problem this year because some unseasonal winds pushed them into the Gulf at the end of April. The Gulf has had calm water since then, and until this week, there were no winds to move the jellyfish out.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm CRISTOBAL was 328 nmi E of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Tropical storm DOLLY was 64 nmi NW of Brownsville, Texas. [Even as the winds subside, Dolly continues to produce very heavy rains and significant flooding threats will continue for another day or two.]
Tropical storm GENEVIEVE was 465 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

Dolly downgraded to tropical storm - Hurricane Dolly moved inland after tearing into the South Texas coast with 95mph (150kph) winds, pouring torrential rain on the US-Mexico border area before being downgraded to a tropical storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALABAMA - Decatur, Trinity and areas of eastern Lawrence County received more rain in a two-hour period Tuesday than in the previous 21 days of July. Storms also dropped the sweltering temperature 20 degrees in a four-hour span. The storm was called a microburst, with possibly 60 mile per hour winds The storm flooded streets and knocked down power lines and trees.

ETHIOPIA - Army worms, hail and floods are adding to the woes of Ethiopians reeling from high world food prices and a drought that has affected some 4.6 million people. The nation has had the shorter of two annual rainy seasons fail. Nearly 2,000 farmers in the southern regions of Welayeta and Gamo Gofa lost crops due to torrential rains, hailstorms and army worms. Heavy rains also badly affected nearly 24,000 people in Shashego early this month.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - Summer heat that is fairly typical in other parts of Canada is a RARE phenomenon in Iqaluit, which is in the middle of an Arctic heat wave. Residents say daytime temperatures consistently above 20 C HAVE NEVER BEEN FELT BEFORE in the Baffin Island region, where the Nunavut capital is located. The mercury went up to a sizzling 26.8 C Monday, which Environment Canada said is THE WARMEST READING ON RECORD FOR THE CITY. Tuesday's daytime high was 23.1 C. Normal temperatures for this time of year are 12 C during the day and 4 C at night. The soaring temperatures are due to high pressure systems in Ontario and Quebec, as well as wind blowing from the northwest. Unlike in the winter months, winds from the northwest blow in hot air in the summer. Environment Canada is expecting similar temperatures to continue into the weekend.

MYSTERY VIBRATION [perhaps related to the mystery booms?]-
WISCONSIN - A couple claims a mysterious noise plagues their house in Green Bay. The noise has been plaguing them for two years and sounds something like a rumbling motor, with a subtle vibration that won't quit. Then it stops - especially when they try to show city officials or acoustic experts what they're hearing. "It's like there's a semi parked right outside with the engine running, but when you look out, there isn't one." The couple have lived in the same house for 42 years. The problem only developed over the last two years. When they leave, the don't hear the noise, so they know it's not some health problem the two share. City officials hired a company for $1,000 worth of testing in the house this spring, but the tester came up with no noise and no significant vibration. The local alderman has heard the sound. "It's like an engine thing, a low-frequency vibration. I think it would be an annoyance." The immediate neighbors haven't complained, although some people have said they heard the sound.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe.
No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise.
Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government
except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.
Sir Winston Churchill

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.3 quake in ANTARCTICA
and a 6.8 quake in EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/22/08 -
5.1 TONGA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - A second volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands has erupted in less than a month, shooting steam and ash as high as 6096m into the air. Mount Cleveland, a volcano in the Aleutian Islands about 90 miles west of still-simmering Okmok Caldera, erupted Monday.

MONTSERRAT - Soufriere Hills volcano shot towers of gray ash more than a mile (2 kilometers) into the sky Monday, but scientists said there was no cause for alarm. Two blasts late Sunday and two more early Monday released blistering gases and steam from inside a hardened lava dome topping the volcano. Wind blowing from the east pushed most of the ash from the 3,000-foot (900-meter) high volcano over open water. There was light ashfall overnight in parts of the British island's west coast hamlet of Old Towne. The volcano had a devastating eruption in 1997 that buried the capital. But while a new pyroclastic surge of gas and debris flowed down the volcano's eastern flank, it did not threaten any of the island's 4,500 inhabitants. Scientists said the volcanic activity was preceded by swarms of small earthquakes.

ECUADOR - Tungurahua volcano is spewing ash on nearby highland communities. The volcano in Ecuador's central Andes is 'unstable' and explosions, emissions of ash and booming noises are becoming more frequent. The volcano's behavior has fluctuated widely since the weekend, making it hard for authorities to predict what's next. The volcano has been spitting out ash and gases intermittently since late last year.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm CRISTOBAL was 328 nmi E of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Hurricane DOLLY was 38 nmi E of Brownsville, Texas.
Tropical depression FAUSTO was 626 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm GENEVIEVE was 495 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Hurricane Dolly strengthened as it approached the Texas-Mexico border and may grow into a Category 2 storm before making landfall today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - FREAK storms batter coast - Heavy surf pounded the Queensland coast today as northern areas of the state received their HIGHEST JULY RAINFALL IN OVER A DECADE.

LIBERIA - Flooding in the Liberian capital, Monrovia, has affected thousands and left hundreds displaced.

NEPAL - Sunday torrential monsoon rains triggered landslides and flash floods across Nepal, killing at least 11 people.

IOWA, NEBRASKA, ILLINOIS - A power-punching, blustery storm that pummeled the Quad-City region Monday was a RARE severe weather event called a “derecho,” according to the National Weather Service. Derechos — from the Spanish word for “direct” or “straight ahead” — are most common in the late spring and summer, especially in the Corn Belt running from the upper Mississippi River valley to the Ohio River valley. The storms, which are rarer than tornadoes, are known for their longevity, incredibly high-sustained wind speeds and fast-moving nature. “We had a 60-mile-wide path of damage from Omaha through the Quad-Cities and on toward Chicago. Storms don’t usually stay that strong, that long. It’s like a 60-mile-wide train barreling across the state.” This is the first derecho to hit Iowa in two years. This one packed winds ranging from 65 to 95 mph. “We had one in the late 1990s that took a whole train off the tracks.” Conditions have to be very precise to create a derecho. There must be certain amounts of dry air aloft and moisture below. When conditions are right, the storm gears up and takes off at a high rate of speed in a “bow” shape. The front edge of the bow packs the heaviest winds, with less damaging winds on the outer edges. The storms are particularly dangerous because they appear quickly, often before sufficient warning can be given.

WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE / EXTREME HEAT -

California could face the worst drought in its history next year, that's the sobering assessment from the director of the Department of Water Resources. People in the East Bay are already used to it, but next year, a lot more could be in the water rationing situation. This is the second consecutive year of below average rainfall. The state water officials say they don t have much in storage. The state's second largest reservoir, Lake Oroville, is at 40 percent capacity, and expected to drop to about 20 percent by the end of the year. The state's largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, is at less than half its capacity. There is the possibility of water levels reaching a record low later this year.

Smoke from wildfires may block warming of Arctic - Smoke spreading across the sky from intense wildfires in North America could act temporarily to blunt the effect of global warming in the Arctic, climate researchers said. The Arctic may cool for weeks or months at a time as smoke from northern wildfires drifts into the region. The cooling effect was observed above the snow-free tundra, and to a greater extent over the darker, ice-free ocean. The amount of solar energy prevented from reaching the surface depends on the smoke's thickness, the elevation of the sun above the horizon, and the brightness of the surface.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Food crisis looms in East Africa - More than 14 million people in the Horn of Africa need food aid because of drought and rocketing food and fuel prices. Ethiopia is worst hit, with 10 million people - some 12% of the population - in need of extra food supplies. Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti are also affected, along with northern parts of Kenya and Uganda. "People are reducing their food intake... we only have months before we go into a major crisis." If rains due in September and October fail, the situation will get even worse. The current food shortages are worse than two years ago, when 11 million people needed food aid.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, death has not come,
and when death has come, we are not.
Epicurus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/21/08 -
5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
Much of Earth's oil reserves can be traced to a single volcanic eruption, scientists say. A new study suggests that a massive undersea volcano eruption 93 million years ago was the source of much of the world’s oil. According to the study, lava fountains from the ancient eruption changed oceanic chemistry, triggering widespread extinction of marine life. This happened in a two-step process: First, as the volcano erupted, nutrients were released into the ocean, encouraging the growth of vegetation and the feeding and reproduction of marine organisms. As this overgrowth of new plant and animal populations died off, the decomposing organic matter released clouds of carbon dioxide into the ocean and atmosphere, leading to an anoxic, or oxygen-depleted, environment. Normally, decaying materials are completely broken down in the ocean, but due to the lack of oxygen, the prehistoric organic matter settled at the bottom of the sea bed and became trapped there, forming the petroleum-rich shale deposits which are important sources of oil today.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm CRISTOBAL was 253 nmi E of Ocean City, Maryland.
Tropical storm DOLLY was 232 nmi NNW of Campeche, Mexico.
Tropical storm FAUSTO was 459 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm GENEVIEVE was 215 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico.


Gulf of Mexico on hurricane alert - South Texas and the Mexican coast are bracing for a potential hurricane as tropical storm Dolly bears down on the gulf. Dolly drenched popular tourist resorts on Mexico's Caribbean coast overnight Sunday but caused no damage. A storm warning issued for Cancun over the weekend was lifted and all ports and airports were operating normally.

Heavy rain is in the forecast for much of Atlantic Canada today and Wednesday as tropical storm Cristobal moves further off the coast.

The tropical storm season this month could match the record-setting number of storms from July 2005, though it may not pack the same punch. Six storms formed in July 2005, with Hurricane Dennis making landfall in Florida. The National Hurricane Center has alerted weather watchers for a developing wave currently inland above the coast of western Africa. “The good news is something forming this far east would have very little chance of making it across the Atlantic.” It’s UNUSUAL for the National Hurricane Center to call attention to a storm so far east. “The center usually waits until the systems reach water before they talk about them. I guess this goes to further prove what an interesting July this is becoming.”
Normally, the Atlantic wouldn’t see this flurry of activity until mid August. Yet here it is, only the third week of July. What this signals is that the tropics are boiling about a month ahead of schedule, with all the ingredients in place to manufacture powerful storms. If the new wave develops, it is so far away – about 4,000 miles – that it likely would be another week before we even know if it's a potential threat. In that time, it might die or it might turn north out to sea, as Hurricane Bertha did.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
GUATEMALA - Twenty-one people were confirmed killed Sunday in landslides triggered by heavy rains in a rural community in eastern Guatemala. One landslide that destroyed a home killed a family of 12 inside.

RUSSIA - FREAK weather - Torrential rains, heavy winds and lightning wreaked havoc throughout Moscow and the region over the weekend, knocking down trees, interrupting travel plans and even destroying a monument to Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin.

UNUSUAL weather behavior over India - Rainfall over western India has been ABNORMALLY spotty with low intensity over western India for much of this month thus far. While let-ups in the rain-giving SW Monsoon (these have been called "break monsoon" by authorities on the subject) are not unusual, when the breaks become long-lasting, then rainfall suffers, foremost in the west of India. The lack of rainfall along the Western Ghats and an UNUSUAL outburst of rain over the southern Deccan are linked. Recent rainfall at Tiruchchirappalli, Tamil Nadu was 16.7 cms. This amount was four-fold the normal July rainfall. What is more, it was on par with monthly rainfall of October, when the transition from SW to NE Monsoon begins in earnest over the south. Bangalore, another site that tends to be wettest after the height of the SW Monsoon, has also had unusually high July rainfall. There has been a lack of well-marked Monsoon lows spinning up south of Bangladesh and whirling westward over middle India, this ties in directly to the afore-mentioned weakness in the low-level westerlies. There is a lack of well-marked low pressure over the northern Bay of Bengal.

CALIFORNIA - Storms caused flash floods Sunday in the Palm Springs area that injured at least one person, damaged a mobile home park and businesses, caused power outages and left four-foot rocks on some Coachella Valley roads. The debris came down mountains on the west side of the valley starting about 8 a.m. in the La Quinta area. In Cathedral City, a storm on foothills above the city caused tons of dirt from a construction site to slide into south portions of the community. Debris and water injured one person, flooded a trailer park, knocked down power poles and inundated an auto dealership along with 15 to 20 other businesses. Mud more than three feet deep left nearby roads impassable.
A low-pressure system off the Northern California coast brought in clouds and kept temperatures mild on Sunday and Monday in Sacremento. High temperatures in Sacramento were forecast at 81 degrees Monday. The cool conditions contrast with average temperatures for this time of year - highs of about 94 degrees. Seeing a low pressure system such as the one coming in off the coast is UNUSUAL for July, but not unheard of. "This (weather) pattern is something more typically seen in the springtime, but that's not to say it can't happen during the summer."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Drought situation grave, not even 10% sowing completed in Pawar. This is the first time in over 40 years that the situation has arisen in the state. The major problem is of drinking water. “If the situation continues to persist for the next week, then we would have to bring in drinking water from distances ranging from 1,000 to 1,500 miles."

Monday, July 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Almost nobody dances sober, unless they happen to be insane.
H. P. Lovecraft

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/20/08 -
5.3 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE

JAPAN - Rescue squads and military helicopters raced to find 11 people missing after an earthquake in mountainous northern Japan sent hillsides crashing down Saturday, killing at least six other people and injuring more than 140. The 7.0 magnitude quake triggered several major landslides, blocking roads and stranding about 100 bathers at a hot spring resort. Crews searching for the missing had to hike mountain trails and dig their way into the worst-hit areas. "It was the worst quake I have ever felt. We were just lucky this didn't hit a big city." Officials said at least 144 people were injured, a number that would surely have been higher if the quake had hit a more heavily populated area. The tremor was described as a sharp vertical jolt followed by a powerful sideways swaying. "It was impossible to stay on your feet."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Huge tidal waves, nearly 20 feet in height, have hit the Indian coastal town of Kanyakumari. Kanyakumari, in the state of Tamil Nadu, was hit twice over the weekend due to heavy seasonal rains. Tsunami fears have been rising in the tourist town which is at the confluence of the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. Following sudden movement of water away from the shore, waves slammed ashore damaging canoes and motorised vessels. Seawater also entered some villages before ebbing.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 836 nmi NNW of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical storm CRISTOBAL was 64 nmi SSE of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina.
Tropical storm DOLLY was 192 nmi N of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.
Hurricane FAUSTO was 317 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
A vigorous and well-defined tropical wave is located over western Africa and has the potential to become a tropical cyclone very quickly after it emerges into the eastern Atlantic on Tuesday.
An area of low pressure in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico could become a tropical depression at any time during the next day or two, with high potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Tropical storm Cristobal weakened slightly off the Carolinas on Sunday but still brought gale-force winds and dumped heavy rain on the North Carolina coast. The storm brought 5 inches of rain to some parts of the North Carolina coast around Cape Fear and one inch to other parts before it headed northeast. The storm was projected to run parallel to the coast on Sunday and then to veer away today.
Due to its close proximity to land, strengthening will be slow due to the amount of dry air wrapping into the system from the southeastern United States. However, some strengthening is still possible as the storm remains over the warm Gulf Stream. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect on the North Carolina/Virginia border. Cristobal may bring gusty winds and rain to Nova Scotia on Tuesday. (projected path maps and sea temperature map)

Tropical Storm Dolly unleashed showers on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as it sped toward the Cancun area on Sunday, packing sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph). A tropical storm warning was in effect Sunday from Campeche to the border with Belize. Dolly was moving northwest at 15 mph (24 kph), on course to cross the Yucatan on Sunday night and reach the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Cancun residents were stocking up on food and fuel. The small, low-lying islands Banco Chinchorro and Punta Allen were evacuated. "We want to clarify that these are preventive measures, we do not have reports that this will be a hurricane. ... However, we need to be alert on what might happen next." Cancun was ravaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Fausto was churning on Sunday far off Mexico's Pacific coast.
Tropical Storm Bertha raced east toward Iceland after battering Bermuda last week. Bertha is on its way to becoming THE LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORM ON RECORD.

KOREA - Paldang Dam opened due to Typhoon Kalmaegi - Water was being released from Paldang Dam in Hanam, Gyeonggi Province. With Typhoon Kalmaegi approaching, the dam almost reached 96.2 percent of full capacity, releasing 6,466 tons of water per second from 1:30 p.m. Sunday. After bringing torrential rain in the middle of the Korean Peninsula, the storm weakened to a tropical depression. More rain and strong winds are expected today, however, due to the tropical depression.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEPAL - Landslides and flash floods triggered by torrential monsoon rain across Nepal killed at least 11 people in remote mountain districts over the weekend.

Sunday, July 20, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve.
George Bernard Shaw

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/19/08 -
5.4 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.4 FIJI REGION
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
6.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
6.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.8 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
7/18/08 -
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
7/17/08 -
5.7 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.5 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.1 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA

JAPAN - A strong, magnitude 6.8 earthquake Saturday struck an offshore area of Japan about 190 miles northeast of Tokyo. The quake triggered a small tsunami - a 20-centimetre-high tsunami was observed in Miyagi and other coastal areas north of Tokyo. An aftershock measuring 5.3 on the Richter scale hit northern Japan shortly after the first jolt. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

CHINA - A 5.2-magnitude earthquake hit southwest China early Friday striking the area devastated by the massive May quake. More than two months after the devastation of the 8.0 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake, the psychological scars of the earthquake and its aftermath are only beginning to heal for those who were affected by the massive tremor. In addition to the millions of survivors in Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces, the endangered giant panda are also recovering from the traumatic experience. China's largest giant panda breeding base at Wolong was only 30 kilometers from Wenchuan. Initially three young panda females were transported out of Wolong to another base in Ya'an, Sichuan. Due to continuous aftershocks and landslides, it was decided that the pandas would be moved to Kunming, where it is hoped they will recover over the next two years from what is essentially post-traumatic stress disorder. The Wenchuan quake was catastrophic for the Wolong reserve, where 150 pandas had been living. More than a dozen of the base's 32 pens were destroyed, five pandas went missing and one died. Recent thunder in Kunming has had a startling effect on the pandas, who are having the same reactions to thunder as they did to the aftershocks and landslides in Sichuan. (photos)

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Okmok Volcano in Alaska continues to produce explosions and ash plumes through a newly created vent and poses hazards to air travel in the area. The gas cloud from the eruption is now over Montana. Human visual observations are limited because airborne ash obscures a view of what is happening inside the volcano's 6-mile-diameter caldera and the area is too hazardous to enter. "We are dealing with a scientific challenge because the volcano went from very quiet to a large eruption, putting ash to high altitudes with almost no warning." The powerful eruption in the Eastern Aleutian Islands began unexpectedly on July 12, sending up a wet, ash and gas-rich plume that reached an altitude of 50,000 ft above sea level. Heavy ash fall occurred on eastern Umnak Island. A dusting of ash fell in the busy fishing community of Unalaska, 65 miles northeast of Okmok volcano. The ash plume soon spanned several hundred miles across the North Pacific, causing many trans-Pacific flights to be diverted and cancellation of flights to the Dutch Harbor airport. The eruption also destroyed or damaged seismic and deformation sensing equipment at two monitoring stations. A third station has lost its communication pathway due to destruction at the other two. Seven seismic stations are still operational and seismicity has gradually decreased in intensity since the initial eruption. At a minimum, activity at Okmok is likely to continue for days or weeks. Strong gas-driven explosions can produce rock ballistics or larger volcanic debris that can be hurled beyond the crater rim of the volcanic caldera, potentially landing in surrounding areas several miles away. Fast moving clouds of ash, larger debris, and hot gas can form and flow across the caldera floor, rise up over the caldera wall and continue to flow down Okmok's flanks. Rain mixed with ash could create mudflows and rapid flooding along island drainages. The Okmok caldera formed during catastrophic eruptions 12,000 and 2,000 years ago.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - Big waves destroy pumpboat; 5 fishermen rescued - The pumpboat was on its way to Lapu-Lapu City when it was battered by big waves as it passed the waters off Camotes Island past 12 a.m. Friday. The pumpboat was destroyed but the passengers managed to jump off the ship before it sank. The five survivors were fished out of the water by fishermen from the coastal village of Esperanza in the town of San Francisco after less than an hour of floating in the murky, dark water. The weather was fine when they sailed off but the waves suddenly got bigger as they were approaching Camotes Island. The survivors were shaky for a few hours as the recent tragedy involving the MV Princess of the Stars was still fresh in their minds.

LOUISIANA - Pounded by hurricanes, washed by waves, 2nd oldest US wildlife refuge in jeopardy - The Chandeleur and Breton islands, a chain of barrier islands southeast of New Orleans, have been battered by hurricanes in the past four years and they took a pounding from Hurricane Katrina, which reduced the islands by one-half of their pre-storm size. "Circumstances are now at a turning point. We can either let things continue to deteriorate or we can expand restoration efforts." What was once a continuous strip of land in 1915, where beaches were backed up by high dunes and shrubbery made up of black mangrove and groundsel bush, is now a patchwork of low-lying sand bars rising just above the sea. The islands are important nesting grounds for a variety of birds. But the fate of the islands may be beyond whatever humans can do.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 774 nmi NW of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical storm CRISTOBAL was 35 nmi SE of Wilmington, North Carolina.
Tropical depression ELIDA was 1328 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane FAUSTO was 414 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

TAIWAN - Thousands of search and rescue workers are in full swing after Tropical Storm Kalmaegi wreaked havoc across Taiwan, killing 15 people, injuring 8 and leaving 10 missing. Those killed were either drowned by rising floods or buried alive by mud- and rock-slides, in casualties surprising the government as the typhoon was considered a relatively small one. The typhoon has also created 310 million Taiwan dollars (10.2 million US dollars) in agricultural damage. At least five low-lying areas in central and southern Taiwan were still inundated by floods brought by torrential rains brought by the typhoon. Kalmaegi began to approach south-east Taiwan Wednesday and moved up north along the east coast, dumping some 900 millimetres of rain on southern and central Taiwan. The downpour, said to be THE WORST IN A DECADE, caused landslides and flooding in mountainous regions in central and south Taiwan and left some city streets flooded knee-deep. The eye of the storm crossed the northern tip of Taiwan Friday morning, and moved to southern China, moving along the Chinese coast.

NORTH CAROLINA - Tropical Storm Cristobal, the first tropical storm to menace the Southeast seaboard this hurricane season, sent outer bands of intermittent rain lashing the eastern Carolinas late Saturday as forecasters predicted it could dump several inches in some areas of drought-stricken North Carolina. Cristobal's winds were not expected to be a problem. "Basically the track is running parallel to the coast. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next day or two."

BERMUDA - Forecasters say that it is EXTREMELY RARE for Bermuda to be in the path of a named storm this early in the season. Bermudians are accustomed to heavy storms in September and October, but few can remember stocking up for a possible hurricane as early as July. Although Bertha only clipped the island - and had lost much of its power before it did so - the storm is still alive over the Atlantic. "Bertha is setting records. In the past five or six years, we have seen storms set record after record, and there is no reason to believe that will not keep happening. In terms of Bertha, it is very, very rare for a hurricane to form that far east this early in the hurricane season." As global warming increases the temperature of the oceans, one result will be more "freak" storms - hurricanes that form in unusual places or are of unprecedented strength or longevity. "We can't necessarily say there will be more hurricanes, but what people are beginning to realize is that there will be more freak weather patterns, which is what we have with Bertha."

JAMAICA - A Flash Flood Watch has been extended to include low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes, until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow, as rainfall spreads across the island. A very active tropical wave currently in the vicinity of Jamaica will continue to influence weather conditions as it begins to drift westward, away from the island, tonight. Meanwhile, the instability produced by the system will persist across sections of the country and its territorial waters through tonight and into tomorrow afternoon.

BELIZE - A tropical wave crossed the country Friday. The Weather Bureau estimated it would dump 2 to 4 inches of rain on Belize. But right behind that tropical wave, there is another one which shows sign of development.

COLD -
NEW JERSEY - The ocean water has been UNUSUALLY cold for bathers in recent weeks. “On the incoming tide, temperatures have been as low as 56 degrees. It’s VERY UNUSUAL for this time of year."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

RUSSIA - A difficult fire situation has emerged in Yakutia. The smoke from forest fires reached Yakutsk where more than 15,000 hectares of forests are ablaze. As compared with same period last year, the number fires in the republic has increased about fivefold. As many as 198 forest fires broke out since the beginning of the fire-prone season. ABNORMAL heat is deteriorating the situation. Even in Verkhoyansk, in the Polar region, the air temperature skyrocketed to 33.3 degrees above zero. This heat spell was reported for the FIRST TIME EVER IN THE WHOLE HISTORY OF WEATHER OBSERVATION.

CALIFORNA - Lightning strikes: get used to catastrophic wildfires and worse - In California there were 8,000 lightning strikes in one event, and that was months before fire season. There is more of that in store across the West. In late June, an ahead-of-schedule dry lightning event sparked more than 8,000 strikes across California, setting off over 800 fires, 38 of which are still burning. According to a study published in Science last year, the Southwest region of the United States will enter permanent drought by 2050, and that's being optimistic. The seven states dependent upon the Colorado River Basin - Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and California - will most likely war over what remains of its diminishing water resources. The region's thirsty population will also be beset by rampant firestorms, as portions of the snowpack that remains bypass the liquid stage and evaporate into thin, dry air. Dry lightning strikes in June might be "climatologically rare" now, but thanks to global warming, they will soon be utterly logical. "In the Rocky Mountains, fire season has grown by almost two months over the past decade as a result of climbing temperatures."
Winemakers in Napa and Sonoma Counties are among those concerned the smoke from northern California wildfires may hurt this year's grape crop.

HAWAII - Record-tying and RECORD-BREAKING temperatures continued to be set in Hawaii.

AUSTRALIA - Drought threatens drinking water for a million Australians - the situation is critical in the Murray-Darling system, which provides water to Australia's "food bowl", a vast expanse of land almost twice as big as France that runs down the continent's east coast. "We are in real trouble in the Murray-Darling basin. We've had very low inflows, we've had a very dry June and the focus absolutely has to be critical human needs, that is the needs of the million-plus people who rely on the basin for drinking water. It just reminds us, yet again, the way in which this country, Australia, is particularly vulnerable to climate change." Australia is in the grip of THE WORST DROUGHT IN A CENTURY, which has stretched for more than seven years in some areas and has forced restrictions on water usage in the country's major cities. The Murray-Darling system, accounting for more than 40 percent of the gross value of Australia's agricultural production, should provide enough drinking water for 2008-09. But federal and state government officials warned there could be problems supplying drinking water after that if rains did not come. Australia is in for a tenfold increase in heat waves as climate change pushes temperatures up. Exceptionally hot years, which used to occur once every 22 years, will occur every one or two years, virtually making drought a permanent part of the Australian landscape.

Thursday, July 17, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When it is not necessary to make a decision, it is necessary not to make a decision.
Lord Falkland

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/16/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
Sea die-out blamed on volcanoes - Undersea volcanic activity has been blamed for a mass extinction in the seas 93 million years ago. In the so-called "anoxic event" of the late Cretaceous Period, the ocean depths became starved of oxygen, wiping out swathes of marine organisms. At the time of the anoxic event, the average temperature was nearly twice that of today. Palm trees grew in what would later become Alaska and large reptiles roamed northern Canada. The Arctic Ocean was ice-free and scientists think it would have had a temperature we might describe today as lukewarm. After the extinction, levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere dropped and Earth lurched into a sudden, but short-lived, period of cooling. Geologists have pondered for years as to the cause of this extraordinary event. The answer to the cataclysm lies in volcanic eruptions which took place on the ocean floor. One possibility is that the volcanoes spewed out metal-rich fluids that seeded the upper level of the ocean with micronutrients. Tiny life forms on the sea surface, called phytoplankton, gorged on the food, and storing up carbon as they grew. They then sank to the sea floor and decayed, stripping the ocean of oxygen. The other possibility is that the volcanoes disgorged clouds of CO2 to the atmosphere, warming the climate to the extent that Earth's ocean circulation system ground to a near-halt. Beyond the surface layers, water was no longer turned over and anoxia (lack of oxygen) was the result.

HAWAII - The world's most active volcano, Mount Kilauea in Hawaii, has been pouring out lava in a flow so large the heat image has been picked up from space.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TURKEY - Tsunami warning - Rhodes, Greece was awakened by a 6.4 earthquake yesterday and although initially it was determined as not causing any loss of property, landslides did cause certain roads to be shut down. The earthquake was felt in many locations in Turkey and now specialists have issued a warning. "Due to the risk of a tsunami, stay away from the coast for a few days." "I have have warned of the possibility of a tsunami in Marmaris. Even if the odds are less that one percent, a significant earthquake is possible."

AUSTRALIA - In Fremantle, records from the last 100 years show sea levels along the WA’s coast have already risen about 20cm. Reports point towards an 88cm rise in sea levels by the end of the century, but recent data shows oceans are already warming 50 per cent faster and ice caps melting more quickly than worst case scenario predictions. This could see the South West on track to experience sea levels rising by more than a metre by the end of this century. Bunbury has already witnessed king tides this year, with several jetties on the Leschenault Inlet frequently under water. Yesterday, in response to storms, the plug at the mouth of the inlet was closed to prevent possible flooding in Bunbury. Rising sea levels will lead to one of the biggest threats of climate change - coastal erosion. Every centimetre of sea level rise has a pronounced affect on the coastline, particularly along sandy beaches such as those at Bunbury. “So if we end up with an 88cm sea level rise, that equates to 88m of foreshore gone. Ocean Drive would almost certainly be eroded into the ocean.” People living in coastal areas like Marlston Hill and along Ocean Drive would face being battered by frequent ferocious storms, with current research suggesting storms only experienced every 100 years could become as regular as every 20 years. This figure could increase to every five years if emissions aren’t curbed. And in flood prone areas like East Bunbury, increased storm surges from higher sea levels and fiercer storms could see flooding become more common. The local costs of climate change would include replacing lost infrastructure like roads, power lines and steps and construction of sea walls to reduce the impact on the city.

GREENLAND - A giant wave resulting from ice that melted and dropped from a glacier swept five Danish tourists into the icy Kangerluarsuk Fjord on Greenland's west coast Sunday, killing two. The tragedy occurred while the group of 15 tourists from a boat stood on a plateau at the glacier to take pictures. 'Witnesses said that there was suddenly a loud sound like a helicopter and a huge wave came pouring in on them.' (photo)
Experts expect more glacial waves - Increasing temperatures in the Arctic mean that glacial waves like the one that killed two Danish tourists in Uummannaq, Greenland, this weekend will become much more common, according to ice experts. The phenomenon, known as jokulhlaup, occurs when lakes formed by glacial melt water burst through the ice. A similar phenomenon took place in the Kangerlussuaq area last August. No one was killed, but the event resulted in a large lake being completely drained in 12 hours, spreading large chunks of ice on roads. Jokulhalup occur without warning and typically take place in parts of glaciers where melt water has gathered on top of glaciers, or where glacial lakes have formed. If the floods occur near populated areas, they can shatter bridges, roads and buildings. They can also have a dramatic effect on the terrain and wildlife in unpopulated areas. In a related story, the tourism industry says it will investigate reasons for Sunday's glacial wave in order to ensure that similar accidents do not occur in the future. The national tourism and business council hoped to determine whether this was an isolated incident. 'We need to know if we should warn people against coming too close to glaciers unless you are with an expert.'

ALASKA - Fifty years ago, on July 9, 1958, the largest wave in modern history occurred in Lituya Bay, on the northern Southeast Alaska coast about halfway between Cape Spencer and Yakutat. Initially, the wave - generated by a landslide that itself was generated by a massive 8.3 earthquake that shook the region for more than a thousand miles up and down the coast - reached a height of more than 1,700 feet. It was still nearly 100 feet high when it reached the mouth of the bay seven miles later. When the wave came, two boat crews would survive and one crew would not. Two groups of Canadian climbers narrowly missed being in the bay the night of July 9th. Had they been camped at tidewater as planned, the wave's death toll would have more than 20 rather than only two. Birds sensed the coming disaster in advance - "The high intensity alarm call of thousands of birds echoed through the still bay. They passed over the [boat] Badger and splattered the boat with droppings. Some crashed into the vessel's rigging and plummeted to the deck." Up and down the coast as far as Yakutat and Hoonah, observers would report similar odd behavior by shore birds and other animals. At Yakutat, 80 miles to the north of Lituya, three people out berry picking died instantly when a small island they were on immediately dropped more than two dozen feet under the water. Later measurements determined that a nearby mountain had risen more than 50 feet at the same time. Overall, the earth had moved some 21 feet horizontally and 3.5 feet vertically along most of the fault line. While most earthquakes last only a few seconds, the initial length of the quake was later estimated at more than two minutes. There is evidence of five "giant" waves in this area, created primarily by land or glacier slides, between 1853 and 1958. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 292 nmi NE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane ELIDA was 587 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm FAUSTO was 320 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Typhoon KALMAEGI was 188 nmi SSE of Taipei, Taiwan.

National Hurricane Center monitoring four storm systems in the Atlantic - A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa Bay was forecast to move northeast and bring heavy rain to Central Florida. It was not expected to strengthen into a storm.
A strong tropical wave in the Atlantic near the Windward Islands might strengthen into a tropical depression as it moves toward the Caribbean.
Another wave in the Caribbean east of Nicaragua also might develop before hitting Central America; it threatens to bring heavy rain to that region.
And Tropical Storm Bertha, already the longest-surviving tropical system for July, having emerged two weeks ago, continues to move away from Bermuda in the Atlantic.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
IOWA - last month's record flooding damaged 125 miles of primary highways in Iowa. The numbers don't include damage to city and county streets and roads. Flooding forced the closure of 464 miles of Iowa's primary highway system and 303 bridges and culverts. A full estimate of the cost to repair the highways isn't expected until August. Partial estimates from railroads on flood damage totals nearly $68 million. The state's rail office has counted 17 railroad bridges and several hundred miles of track damaged or destroyed by the floodwaters.

The Gulf of Mexico's "dead zone" - a swath of algae-laden water with oxygen levels low enough to choke out marine life - WILL LIKELY REACH RECORD SIZE this year, and the main culprits are rising ethanol use and massive Midwest flooding. The dead zone, which recurs each year off the Texas and Louisiana coasts, could stretch to more than 8,800 square miles his year - about the size of New Jersey - compared with 6,662 square miles in 2006 and nearly double the annual average since 1990 of 4,800 square miles. "Excess nutrients from the Mississippi River watershed during the spring are the primary human-influenced factor behind the expansion of the dead zone." To reverse the pattern, U.S. farmers must plant more perennial crops that trap rainwater and keep it from running into the Gulf of Mexico. And eventually, scientists need to invent new breeds of perennial corn plants that can remain in the soil from one planting season to the next, avoiding the need to strip fields bare and leave them susceptible to flooding.

COLUMBIA - A bus was buried amid a landslide caused by rains, killing at least four people and injuring eight others in central Colombia.

CHINA - Continuous rainstorms triggered a landslide in southwest China's Yunnan Province on Tuesday morning, leaving one person missing and over 100 houses buried.

THAILAND - At least one person was killed and three others injured in landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains in Tripura Tuesday.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GERMANY - Summer snowstorm kills 2 on Bavarian Mountaintop - A fast-moving snowstorm took hundreds of "extreme" runners by surprise during a race in the Bavarian Alps Sunday, killing two and sending six more people to the hospital with severe hypothermia. The deaths occurred during an "extreme run" up the slopes of the Zugspitze, Germany's highest peak. A 41-year-old man and a 45-year-old man died just 10 minutes from the finish line. "Both died from a combination of hypothermia and fatigue." The two men were running up the mountain along with more than 500 others when a sudden change in the weather brought temperatures below the freezing point. The snap storm also brought strong gusts of wind and even snow. The storm took the participants in the race – many of whom were clad in nothing more than shorts and T-shirts - by surprise. Runners had to press on through ten centimeters of snow in some places. The bad weather limited the ability of rescue helicopters to respond to the distress calls. The race's organizer had warned participants that the weather could get ugly - a forecast on its Web site predicted temperatures at the summit of between three and five degrees and winds up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) per hour. Still, local officials criticized the decision to hold the race despite the bad conditions.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA wildfires SET A RECORD - Three weeks after lightning storms ignited an early start to California’s wildfire season, a state official said history had been made this time around. “That has definitely surpassed any of our large fire events." As many as 1,781 fires were burning at one point earlier in the battle; nearly 300 of them remain unquenched. In all, 861,385 acres were scorched by them, mostly in the northern part of the state. Because this year’s fires were mainly in sparsely populated rural areas, the biggest fire season has by no means been the most destructive, at least so far. The wildfire season still has months left to run. “Historically, we see the most devastating fires in September and October."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
ISRAEL - Drought creates tension along both banks of the Jordan - The situation has made it difficult for farms and towns on the Jordanian and Israeli sides of the river to continue farming. Last week the water crisis almost sparked a diplomatic incident between Israel and Jordan. The Jordanians said Israeli farmers dammed the river beside the Adam Bridge (also called the Damia Bridge) and stopped the flow of water southward so they could irrigate their crops. "Over a month ago the drought caused the Jordan River to recede to A LEVEL WE HAVE NEVER SEEN HERE BEFORE. This caused boulders to appear which looked like a dam or blockage. The Jordanians, whose distress is understandable, thought this caused the shortage of water and that clearing the rocks would change this situation. Israel cleared away the rocks, but the water is not flowing." Israeli farmers are short of water, which is particularly necessary for irrigating their date plantations. "Now is a critical time for irrigation, and the farmers fear their crops will be damaged."

DROUGHT has spread across Iraq and Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, Iran and Afghanistan, where the wheat crop is in trouble and could cause shortages. Overall, Iraq's wheat and barley crop is expected to fall 51 per cent from last year. "Planting...is totally destroyed. Even the ground water in wells is lower than before."

AUSTRALIA - VEGETABLE prices are expected to soar later this winter following a glut caused by a warm spell in one of Australia's largest "food bowls". Farmers in Tasmania's north-west are being forced to leave brassicas such as cauliflowers and broccoli in the field because they're not worth harvesting. UNUSUALLY warm, dry weather has caused staggered crops to produce at the same time, leading to a glut in the market. In the area, which produces one-third of the nation's potatoes, crops intended for harvest over the next five weeks are maturing now all at once. The supply is too much for the market to handle. "It's putting huge pressure on harvesting and storage capacity and there's been plenty of wastage. And, if you've used up your next five weeks supply then in two or three weeks' time, prices will go through the roof because nothing is going to be there. These are highly perishable products that can't be stored for long." Last winter farmers sold cauliflowers for $3 each, but today they are getting $1.60. It roughly costs farmers $1 to grow, harvest and package each cauliflower. Shoppers are being urged to buy up vegetables before prices jump and freeze them whole or cooked with other foods.

AFRICA - A poor rainy season has damaged crops in large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.

TURMERIC - INDIA - Scanty rains to push turmeric prices up. Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the main turmeric producing states, received lower rainfall compared to long term average, between June 1 and July 9. Cultivation has been delayed due to the lower rainfall. Lower moisture may force farmers to opt for short duration crops like, cotton corn and soyabean, which require less water than turmeric. Unseasonal rains in March cut output in 2007-08.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008 -

Shortened version today, ran low on time.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There are some defeats more triumphant than victories.
Michel de Montaigne

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/15/08 -
5.2 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
5.0 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.7 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.4 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - volcano spewed huge ash plume for 3rd day - The Okmok Caldera on Umnak Island about 60 miles west of the fishing port of Dutch Harbor erupted Saturday and was still in a near state of continuous eruption on Monday. It's ash plume reached more than 6 1/2 miles high and was moving southeastward over the North Pacific. When the volcano last erupted in 1997, it remained active for eight months, producing a significant amount of lava and ash. This time, the volcano's seismic activity peaked a few hours after the initial explosion Saturday and has been slowly declining since.
Okmok Volcano RAMPED UP FROM NOTHING TO AN EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION IN RECORD TIME and it is still pulsing with activity. The explosive eruption Saturday and subsequent shock wave jostled the surrounding cloud-cover. Thermal infrared tracking over the first two days showed the ash plume moving southeast. But a wind shift Tuesday pushed the plume northeast, prompting an ash fall advisory for Cold Bay, which ended early Tuesday. The Volcano Observatory suspects more than one vent in the caldera is active. "There appears to be two vents in the caldera, one of which is producing a more steam-rich cloud. The other is more ash-rich. That activity is sort of pulsing, we have tens of minutes where activity is occurring." A code red warning is still in effect for Okmok Volcano.

HAWAII - Lava destroyed an unoccupied house in a remnant portion of Royal Gardens subdivision before sundown Sunday. The house was the 41st destroyed in Royal Gardens, which has been overrun by lava numerous times since East Rift eruptions began in 1983. (video)
At the Puna coastline last week, at least 3 large benches of freshly hardened lava collapsed into the Pacific. The collapses occurred over four hours on Thursday night, while large volumes of magma flowed through underground lava tubes into the ocean. A photo captured the explosive results of one of these collapses. Massive volumes of hot magma met chilly ocean water, throwing rocks up to 60 feet away. Geologists at Kilauea volcano summit’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory report that ocean entry of lava through the tube systems was vigorous. The lava is from Kilauea’s long-erupting Pu‘u O‘o vent six miles upslope, which has been churning out more magma than usual in recent weeks. (photo)
Haleakala volcano - Although there has been no activity for centuries, scientists are constantly monitoring potential eruption activity at Haleakala on Maui. Several eruptions have taken place at Haleakala within the past 1,000 years, and it is still considered an active volcano. The relatively short span since the last eruption is a major reason why scientists classify Haleakala as an "active volcano," or one that could erupt again, and continue to measure its activity, as they did last week. In the Hawaiian Islands, scientists consider six volcanoes to be active, including Haleakala; the Big Island's Hualalai, Mauna Loa, Mauna Kea and Kilauea; and the undersea volcano Loihi.

CHILE - Llaima volcano in southern Chile once again spewed ash and smoke in the early morning hours on Tuesday (July 15), causing ongoing concern among some local authorities. The spurt of lava, smoke and ash is the latest in renewed activity that Llaima renewed last week. "There is a glow. It can be seen from Melipeuco. Certainly, the people are worried. We are on a yellow alert and very attentive - that is, this could at any moment, in accordance with the evolution and the telemetric stations - this could increase."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 321 nmi NNE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane ELIDA was 537 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression FAUSTO was 325 nmi SSW of Salina Cruz, Mexico.
Tropical storm KALMAEGI was 259 nmi SSE of Taipei, Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Bertha strengthened today, but has not regained hurricane status, as it moved eastward across the Atlantic, away from the British colony of Bermuda. Bertha made a loop in the central Atlantic Ocean after brushing Bermuda and is heading slowly east. The storm had sustained winds of 70 mph with gusts up to 85 mph. Forecasters altered an earlier report to say little change in strength was expected in the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extended 140 from the center of the storm. There were no reports of injuries or damage estimates from Bertha's eastern swipe at the island Monday, although power outages, some flooding and uprooted trees were reported Tuesday.
Bertha has become the LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY. The previous longest-lived storm, known as Storm No. 2, occurred in 1960 and lasted just over 12 days. Bertha is entering its 13th day.

Tropical depression may form in Atlantic - A low-pressure system about 225 miles (362 km) east of the Windward Islands became better organized overnight and may develop into a tropical depression today. Regardless of development, the NHC warned the system would bring gusty winds and locally heavy rains to the Windward Islands during the next day or so. The Windward Islands include Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Dominica. Most weather models forecast the system will cross the Windward Islands and reach the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba and near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico over the next five days or so. If the system manages to strengthen into a tropical storm, with winds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC will name it Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Fausto has formed south of Acapulco, while Elida has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane off Baja California's coast. Fausto was moving west away from land at 16 mph (26 kph). It was located about 385 miles (625 kilometers) south of Acapulco with winds reaching 40 mph (65 kph). Forecasters say Fausto will continue to strengthen over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, Hurricane Elida's winds have reached 105 mph (168 kph) as it continues to move out to sea. The storm was forecast to hit cooler waters and weaken soon.

A sea warning was issued east of Taiwan for Tropical Storm Kalmaegi, which has formed over the Pacific Ocean in the past two days. Kalmaegi is the year's seventh typhoon in the West Pacific region. Kalmaegi was expected to arrive 170 km off of Taiwan's eastern coast of Hualien at around 5 p.m. today on its way to Okinawa and Japan. The forecasters expect the tropical storm's speed to increase and bring strong wind and heavy rain to east and southeast Taiwan today.
Kalmaegi could strengthen into a typhoon. The storm, presently with sustained winds of 65 kph (40 mph) and gusts of 90 kph, is expected to reach southeast China by the weekend. Typhoons regularly hit China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan from August until the end of the year, gathering strength from the warm waters of the Pacific or the South China Sea before weakening over land.

ODD-
Mysterious insect baffles experts - Experts have been baffled by the presence of an unidentified insect in parts of London. The tiny red and black bug first appeared in the Natural History Museum's Wildlife Garden in March 2007. Since then it has become the most common insect in the garden. The bug appears to be harmless, but there is potential for it to spread throughout the UK. The insect was spotted on the seeds of some of the plane trees that grow in the museum's grounds. Despite containing more than 28 million insect specimens, the museum failed to find an exact match for the new bug. Experts said it closely resembles the rare species Arocatus roeselii that is usually found in central Europe. But the roeselii bugs are brighter red than this new bug and they are usually associated with alder trees. The National Museum in Prague discovered an exact match to the mystery insect but experts there have also failed to determine exactly what it is. "It seems strange that so many of these bugs should suddenly appear." (photo)

Tuesday, July 15, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Cynics regarded everybody as equally corrupt.
Idealists regarded everybody as equally corrupt, except themselves.
Robert Anton Wilson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.4 quake in the DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE. It struck near the Greek island of Rhodes. The earthquake did not cause any major damage, but residents and tourists fled their homes and hotels in panic. One woman was killed when she slipped and fell as she tried to flee her home. There have been multiple small aftershocks - the largest was 3.4 magnitude. Two quakes of 4.1 and 3.9 occurred a few hours before the 6.4 one.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/14/08 -
5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - A tsunami ‘strikes Western Australia every decade’ - Scientists have found evidence that a tsunami — ocean surges triggered by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides or meteorite impacts — has hit the Australian coast almost every decade. Sites between Coral Bay and the Buccaneer Archipelago, north of Derby, have been previously hit with surging waves that threatened campers’ lives and washed fish and coral 400m inland. Less than two years ago, a family had to run for their lives after a wall of water rushed over their camp site at Steep Point, near Shark Bay. An earthquake off Java had created a tsunami that pushed water 8m above sea level and 200m inland at the remote WA fishing spot, sweeping away a vehicle. Other reports of WA events describe waves pounding the coast at Cape Leveque, 220km north of Broome on the Dampier Peninsula, in 1977 and a 1994 tsunami that dragged fish and coral 400m inland at Cape Range peninsula. A devastating tsunami caused by an earthquake off the Indonesian island of Java would almost certainly strike North-West Western Australia.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 08W [Helen] was 225 nmi ENE of Baguio City, Philippines.
Tropical storm BERTHA was 134 nmi N of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane ELIDA was 398 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to pummel the island nation of Bermuda through today, while another tropical wave is likely to develop over the next couple of days. The island will receive several inches of rain, while large swells and high surf batter the shores.
A tropical wave is located about 1,000 miles east of the southern Windward islands. Satellite imagery shows a counter-clockwise spin near the center of the area of low pressure. The low is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next couple of days and there is a very good chance the low will eventually develop hurricane strength.
Tropical Storm Bertha swells risk of riptides along U.S. East Coast - Large swells from Tropical Storm Bertha have caused a risk of rip current that will last through Wednesday. Beach lifeguards rescued nearly 50 people from dangerous riptides during the weekend.

PHILIPPINES - Luzon, including Metro Manila, expects more rains today and the coming days as tropical depression "Helen" intensified into a tropical storm yesterday afternoon and strengthened the southwest monsoon or "hanging habagat", the prevailing weather system in the country this time of the year. As long as the tropical storm continues to move over to Batanes, the whole of Luzon will continue to have frequent rains, especially western Luzon. Health officials also cautioned against playing or being exposed to floodwaters as it is a source of infectious diseases. "Helen" is not expected to make landfall, but will cross Batanes. With its slow movement, "Helen" is likely to intensify. "Helen" is the eighth tropical cyclone in the country this year and second this month after "Gener."
Tropical depression 08W is forecast to strike China as a tropical storm at about 06:00 GMT on Friday, July 18. (map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - The Monsoons geared up to full strength this weekend causing hundreds of thousands of dollars in damage to Ambos Nogales. One local storm watcher even captured a photograph of a funnel or tornado cloud from her Nogales, Arizona, home about one mile from the border. Officials in Nogales declared a state of emergency and have petitioned the state for relief. Near the close of business and in the wake of Saturday’s rains, shopkeepers along the first two blocks of Morley Avenue were barraged by runoff. The water gushed from across the line through the pedestrian port of entry where border walls acted as a dam. The border walls held back storm runoff that burst through the concrete and asphalt ceiling of the wash tunnel on Calle Elias, just 60 feet south of the pedestrian port of entry. Up to five feet of water pooled on the Mexican side of the border where several vehicles that were parked in the area floated and converged at the base of a nearby hill. “It looked like a bomb fell.” Officials believe the collapse of the wash ceiling was due to immense pressure after most of the wash tributaries flowed to capacity and into the waterway known as Arroyo Los Nogales which is the Mexican extension of the Nogales Wash. CPB officers rescued three individuals from the flood channel underneath the Dennis DeConcini Port of Entry just west of Morley Avenue. A sinkhole developed just 30 feet away from the inspection station. “This kind of flooding had not occurred since 1924 when my grandfather first got here.”
Surprise deluge flooded the Phoenix area - Power was being restored Monday to parts of the Phoenix area, which were hit by an unexpected downpour and high winds, causing flash flooding. The flooding was triggered by more than 2 inches of rain that fell in a short period Sunday. It is UNUSUAL to see such high winds combined with rain in July, such wet microbursts are more common to Arizona in August.

CALIFORNIA - firefighters gained the upper hand Monday on a rash of wildfires that have devastated the state for three weeks. But the problems continued as the violent thunderstorms that helped douse the flames also triggered mudslides. "If it isn't fire, it's flood. If it isn't fire or flood, it's the mud." A huge mudslide hit an area that suffered wildfires last year that damaged about 50 homes. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch for Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles county mountain areas. "Anywhere in the mountains that has experienced these burns in the past one to two years are most susceptible" to flooding with such rapid rainfall. Across the state, 288 blazes were still burning Monday. About 300 homes remained threatened in the Camp Fire. Some 1,780 massive fires have burnt more than 3,300 square kilometres since they were sparked by a barrage of freak lightning storms on June 20 and June 21. Traditionally the worst months for wildfires in California are in September and October when hot Santa Ana winds blow from the desert across southern California.
For a second consecutive day major flash floods roared through the Piute Fire burned area in Erskine Canyon Sunday. Some people trapped by the floodwaters scampered to rooftops to be rescued by helicopter. As many as 80 homes were evacuated in the Erskine Canyon area. The department is concerned about unknown road conditions and trees weakened by soil movement due to the flood, and potential thunderstorms and associated erratic winds. About 3 inches of rain fell across the Piute Fire area Sunday. As a result, fire activity has been minimal. Containment is estimated at 68 percent, with 37,026 acres burned.

SOUTH AFRICA - Winelands awash after 7-day deluge last week - As floods hit, families lose everything in mad scramble for higher ground. Seven days of heavy rains lashed the Western Cape, claiming the life of one man and leaving 38,000 people in desperate need of blankets, food and shelter. The cold, severe weather caused traffic chaos, blocked roads, flooded homes and cut-off towns and farms, where food and supplies could only be flown in by helicopter. Boats were used to rescue communities surrounded by lakes of water. The damage to roads, bridges and buildings is expected to run into millions of rands, the final tally still to be determined once the waters subside. (photos)

JAMAICA - A FREAK storm wreaked havoc in sections of Western Jamaica Sunday afternoon. The sudden lightening storm accompanied by heavy rains and fierce winds, tore down trees, ripped roofs off houses and left several residents in sections of St. James and Hanover in shock. The storm, which began around 3.30pm, destroyed at least one house and left at least one family homeless. Two other houses lost roofs and even more were flooded out. The high winds and rains uprooted banana trees and flattened crops.

Monday, July 14, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Whenever I am asked whether climate change is going to happen or not
I simply say "all the arguing is irrelevant.
All we need to know is that if there is any possibity that climate change is going to happen,
it is better to do something now and be wrong later, than do nothing and be right."
David Smith

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/13/08 -
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 TIMOR REGION
6.4 TAIWAN REGION

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Living in the shadow of Chile's sporadically erupting, snow-capped Llaima volcano, one of South America's most active, local residents are paying a heavy price. Evacuated from the ski station where they work after the government imposed a red alert when Llaima began spewing lava earlier this month, residents have lost their livelihoods and are having trouble feeding their families. This is the second ski season in a row interrupted by the volcano. Aside from hot rock and gas or lava flows that have emanated from the crater, another major worry is that snow on the volcano's sides could melt and that a nearby river could overflow and flood nearby communities. Experts say there is no knowing how the volcano, the second to erupt in Chile in as many months, will continue to behave. "The activity is going up and down very fast. It is oscillating, so it is very difficult to make a medium-term forecast. It will most likely continue to oscillate, until it stabilizes at some point." (photos & video)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 73 nmi SSE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm ELIDA was 244 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
A low pressure system located in the Atlantic about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to increase in organization and appears likely to become a tropical depression sometime today.

NEW JERSEY - Storm-driven waves and currents appear to have claimed the lives of three swimmers at the Jersey shore. One swimmer drowned and another is missing following a Saturday evening swim off the Wild-wood beach, while a swimmer died after being rescued from waves in Atlantic City on Saturday afternoon. The tricky surf is because of Bertha, now a tropical storm, far out in the Atlantic Ocean and approaching Bermuda. Lifeguards farther north say they have made some rescues of swimmers caught in rip currents generated by waves that are higher than normal.

Bertha threatens Bermuda - Tropical Storm Bertha threatened to lash Bermuda with rain and high winds in the next 24 hours as it nears the British territory. The storm's centre is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda in the next 24 to 48 hours, generating large swells and high surf. Bertha's outer bands could dump 2-4 inches of rain. JetBlue cancelled flights from Bermuda to Boston and New York, while American Airlines passengers scheduled to travel to Miami and New York were flown out on Sunday. British Airways said it would decide today whether to cancel an evening flight to London.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CALIFORNIA - The National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for north-central San Bernardino County after heavy rains from a thunderstorm hit the area on Sunday. Doppler radar indicates heavy rain fell west of Highway 127 near the Fort Irwin Military Reservation. An estimated 2 inches fell in one hour. Forecasters say a strong monsoonal surge is bringing large amounts of moisture to the mountains and deserts of Southern California, where many wildfire-scarred areas are ripe for mudslides. More rain was expected through the night in parts of Southern California.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ANTARCTIC - Tens of thousands of newly-born penguins are freezing to death as Antarctica is lashed by FREAK rain storms. Scientists believe the numbers of Adelie penguins may have fallen by as much as 80 per cent – and, if the downpours continue, the species will be extinct within ten years. And the Emperor penguin is also under threat. Temperatures on the Antarctic peninsula have risen by 3C over the past 50 years to an average of -14.7C and rain is now far more common than snow. Adelie penguins are born with a thin covering of down and it takes 40 days for them to grow protective water-repellent feathers. With epic rains drenching their ancestral nesting grounds, their parents try to protect them. But when the adults leave to fish for food, or are killed by predators such as seals, the babies become soaked to the skin and die from hypothermia. ‘Everyone talks about the melting of the glaciers but having day after day of rain in Antarctica is A TOTALLY NEW PHENOMENON. As a result, penguins are literally freezing to death...In the past five years, torrential rains have become increasingly common there. We saw Adelie penguin chicks shivering during nearly six days of continuous storms. If it had been snow, like in the old days, their down would be perfectly equipped to cope. But they can’t take rain. It’s like wearing a down jacket that gets soaking wet...It is all very well talking theoretically about how the ice cap could disappear – but watching penguins walking among the skeletons of their young is the most powerful evidence of climate change I have seen.’ The warming climate is also threatening the Emperor penguin. In East Antarctica in December 2006 – less than two years after March Of The Penguins was shot – it would be unrecognisable to anyone who saw the film. ‘I saw no Emperor penguin chicks, no sea-ice and fewer than a dozen small icebergs. I was just shocked. It was the first time our expedition leader had seen the area free of ice since he started going there in the Eighties. There was no way chicks could have survived. In late September, when they would have been little more than half grown, we were told a large storm had hit the area. Emperor chicks are similar to the Adelie – they are downy and not waterproof and could not survive in the cold sea for any period of time. ' 50 years ago two days of snow were recorded for every one day of rain at the region’s Faraday meteorological station. ‘Now, in the past few years, the trend is two days of rain to every one day of snow.’

The poor breeding of Scotland's seabirds is giving cause for "serious concern". Early reports from coastal reserves indicate continuing problems for the internationally important populations of guillemots, kittiwakes and others. Nests have been abandoned, with cliffs which "should be teeming" now empty. Colonies on the Northern Isles of Orkney and Shetland - together said to be Scotland's most important "seabird cities" - have been hit particularly hard. Many guillemots and razorbills appeared to have given up any attempt to breed at RSPB's Sumburgh Head reserve on Shetland, with eggs left abandoned on the cliffs as parent birds spent more time at sea in a search for food. "The declines are primarily being driven by changes in the availability of the fish that these birds depend on. Seabirds are indicators of the health of the marine environment and, like the canary in the coalmine, the decline in their fortunes should be a wake-up call to us all that we must pay attention to."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Forests to fall for food and fuel - Demand for land to grow food, fuel crops and wood is set to outstrip supply, leading to the probable destruction of forests, a report warns. The Rights and Resources Initiative says only half of the extra land needed by 2030 is available without eating into tropical forested areas. The dual crises of fuel and food are attracting significant land speculation. "Arguably, we are on the verge of a last great global land grab. It will mean more deforestation, more conflict, more carbon emissions, more climate change and less prosperity for everyone." RRI calculates that about two-thirds of the world's current violent conflicts are driven by land tenure issues.

Sunday, July 13, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Be careful that victories do not carry the seed of future defeats.
Ralph W. Sockman

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/12/08 -
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
7/11/08 -
5.6 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.0 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

CHINA - Millions still homeless months after China quake - Millions of displaced people have been living in donated tents since the 8.0-magnitude quake rocked the southern part of the country on May 12. The number of missing is at 18,340.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - A volcano erupted Saturday with little warning on a remote island in Alaska, sending residents of a nearby ranch fleeing from falling ash and volcanic rock. The Okmok Caldera erupted late Saturday morning, just hours after seismologists at the Alaska Volcano Center began detecting a series of small tremors. The explosion flung an ash cloud at least 50,000 feet high. Ten people, including three children, were at Fort Glenn, a private cattle ranch six miles south of the volcano on Umnak Island, located in the western Aleutians about 860 miles southwest of Anchorage. They were later picked up by a fishing boat which responded to a Coast Guard request for emergency assistance. The ranch residents had managed to call military police on Kodiak Island on a satellite phone before losing their connection. A rescue helicopter responded but had to land in Dutch Harbor after flying through some volcanic ash, causing some damage to the aircraft. Those at the ranch reported rock and ash falling around them. Okmok is 60 miles west of the busy fishing port of Dutch Harbor on Unalaska Island. Ash was reported falling in the region. The volcano last erupted in 1997. The volcano has shown signs of increased activity during the last few months. Previous eruptions have typically produced lava flows, but the volcano center could not immediately determine if that had occurred in Saturday's explosion.

NICARAGUA - San Cristobal volcano rumbled with a series of small explosions on Friday and spewed gases and ash that reached a small town in the northwest of the country, but authorities said no one was hurt. San Cristobal is Nicaragua's highest volcano and one of eight active volcanoes in the small Central American nation. The volcano produced a series of tremors in recent weeks but it does not pose an immediate risk to communities living in surrounding areas.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - A shark was found in a swimming pool at one of Sydney's most popular beaches Friday, apparently swept into the baths by a FREAK WAVE. The one-metre (3.3 foot) shark turned up in a rock pool situated next to the open ocean at Cronulla beach. "It was quite calm, just swimming happily up and down at one end of the pool. It's funny, though, because we have swimmers who come here at 6am every morning to do laps. It's still dark then and they mustn't have even noticed it was there." The shark must have been swept into the pool overnight by a large wave. "It's the first time we've had a shark in the pool. We've had seals sunbaking there before, and get dolphin at the beach all the time, but I've never heard of a shark getting caught in a pool before."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane BERTHA was 151 nmi SSE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm ELIDA was 173 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico.

Bermuda issues tropical storm warning - Bermuda is preparing for heavy rains and wind this weekend as Hurricane Bertha sputters across the Atlantic. The Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning Saturday morning and the outer bands of Bertha threatened to sideswipe the island today. The storm was barely a Category 1 hurricane and was slowly chugging north. The storm remained mostly stationary on Saturday. Most tourists chose to hang out in pools and walk along the beach instead of battle the stronger surf and rip currents along Bermuda's southern coast. "You can go out and swim if you like, but lifeguards will not come out and get you." The storm is expected to pass well east of Bermuda, although any inclination toward the west would create stronger winds. Bermuda will likely receive up to 2 inches (5 centimeters) of rain over the weekend. Rain had already started falling at Elbow Beach by midday on Saturday. Bertha became the Atlantic season's first hurricane on July 7 and has vacillated between a Category 1 and 2 storm.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida formed off Mexico's Pacific coast Saturday. The hurricane center says Elida, the fifth tropical storm of the Pacific season, has sustained winds of nearly 45 mph (75 kph), with higher gusts. Elida could become a hurricane late today or Monday, but is expected to remain well south of the Mexican coast over the next two days.

MEXICO - Tropical wave damage - Several meteorological phenomena combined, and a tropical wave that hit Mexico, have so far taken 29 lives, affected 32,000 people and caused extensive damage to property. Rains caused the death of six more people and four disappeared in the states of Nayarit, Sonora, Guerrero and Veracruz. There are 6,000 houses totally wrecked and about 50,000 hectares, forest and for farming, are ruined. Facing new downpours and given the extent of damages, hundreds of towns have requested to be declared in emergency state. The National Meteorological Service forecasted more rain in the southeast, east, center and south of the country, caused by the interaction of the tropical wave with a low-pressure system stressed by the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico humidity.

MASSACHUSETTS - the waves on the Cape are expected to increase in size over the next few days. "This is the biggest it has been all summer. I have heard the waves could get close to 15 feet, but that is RARE for this time of year." The surge in wave strength is being attributed to Hurricane Bertha. "The Cape can anticipate bigger seas and the possibility of rip currents along the beaches. Bertha is slow-moving, and the waves should last as late as Wednesday."

FLORIDA - Bertha brings big waves to Florida's east coast - Thanks to Hurricane Bertha, forecasters expect 2 to 3 foot-long period swells to continue through Saturday and Sunday. While the swells aren’t coming in close together, they could break higher — 4 to 5-feet breakers were reported in Fort Pierce. Along with the wave action, swimmers should be aware of dangerous rip currents that threaten to drag them out to sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Flooding and mudslides caused by two days of torrential rain have left at least five people dead in a mountainous region of southwest China's Sichuan province.
Flooding and heavy rain has made normal daily life virtually impossible in much of China's Guangdong province and other parts of the country's south. Over three hundred people are reported to have died in this year's floods so far and over 70 are missing. Tens of millions have been evacuated from their homes and crops have been seriously damaged. It's estimated that over 61 million people and millions of hectares of farmland have been affected. Hundreds of thousands of houses have also been destroyed.

SCOTLAND - A main road in southern Scotland is set to be closed for up to eight weeks after a landslide triggered by heavy rains. Police confirmed that the A7 at Auchenrivock, south of Langholm, in Dumfries and Galloway, would remain shut for some time as much of the nation was lashed by downpours. A further landslip also partially closed a stretch of the same road north of Langholm. "This means absolute disaster for the business community of Langholm." Severe weather warnings were issued for parts of Scotland, with the south appearing to be the worst hit.

CANADA - A freak wind storm blew through most of the Okanagan Valley’s cities and towns on Wednesday. The storm was caused by a massive cold front that dropped temperatures in the area by 8 C in less than a half-hour mixed with intense thunderstorms to produce winds of strong proportions. The storm crashed down power lines, pulled up trees and tore off branches as it ripped through the valley.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Avalanche prediction 'one step closer' - Scientists have made new insights into cracks under the surface of snow that could help to predict when slab avalanches might occur. These avalanches are often triggered by skiers and account for many skiing accidents. It was previously thought slab avalancges were caused by shear cracks, in which one layer of snow slides off another. But a team at the University of Edinburgh report that the main cause of slab avalanches could be fractures under the surface known as anticracks. These cause a layer of snow to crumble inwardly. Anticracks have been found to cause fractures over large distances in snow. They can spread not only on steep slopes but on gentle slopes and even on the flat. This type of crack is known to play a role in earthquakes, but their relevance for snow avalanches was a surprise to the researchers. "It was thought that slab avalanches were caused by a section of snow simply slipping off other layers. However, when we took a closer look, we saw that something quite different was going on. Our discoveries complete a piece of the puzzle of how avalanches occur - we hope this will help to pinpoint dangerous tell-tale signs and so avoid unnecessary dangers to people on mountains."

MONGOLIA - the lifestyle of today's Mongolian horseman - and other nomadic herdsmen - is under threat. A succession of climactic disasters in the last 10 years has forced 500,000 of them abandon a nomadic lifestyle that has remained almost unchanged for centuries and to look instead for a new life in the cities. Mongolia is one of the toughest places on earth to live and can boast the coldest capital - Ulaanbaatar - on the planet. Temperatures drop to at least -30C in winter. The country is frozen from November to March. But four climactic disasters, known as 'dzuds', since 1999 have made life almost impossible for even the toughest of Mongolia's nomadic people. Three particularly harsh winters since 2000 have killed a third of the nation's livestock. In 2001, the temperature dropped to a record-breaking -57C. Some 15,000 herders lost all of their animals through starvation and cold, and with them, their money and food. More than a quarter of the 2.6m population has left the vast rural areas, where herdsmen have lived since before Ghengis Khan's empire was established in the 13th century, and have fled in desperation to the cities. "It's difficult in the city. Some days we don't have food. There's no future here, but there's nothing to go back to. Being a herder was difficult, but it was a much better life."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - One person has been found dead inside a burned-out house as wildfires continue to sweep through California. In the past three weeks, hundreds of fires, most started by lightning, have burnt 1,100 sq miles (2,850 sq km). Fires have destroyed 1,000 homes. A thunderstorm on 21 June sparked 800 wildfires across Northern California, which have been exacerbated by drought and particularly high temperatures. Officials have described the combination of dry brush and trees, dry weather and windy conditions as a "perfect storm". The state's fire season, formerly lasting from late summer through the autumn, is now year-round.

JAPAN - At least 266 people nationwide were admitted to hospital Saturday as a result of a heat wave.

HAWAII - UNUSUAL weather pattern adds to summer heat - Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Honolulu say there's a reason why island residents may be wiping their brows more frequently this summer - an unusual weather pattern that has cut off their brisk trade winds. "From our experience at least in the last ten to fifteen years, it's relatively UNUSUAL. I mean this time of year you're expecting trades about 90% of the time and we're not seeing that level of persistence right now." Forecasters cannot pinpoint why it's happening, but they say Hawaii's normal trade wind pattern could be missing in action for the rest of the summer. Even when trades have kicked up, they haven't followed the norm. "Even though we're in a trade wind pattern they're not the usual east, northeast type of trades. They're coming in more from a straight east or maybe even slightly south of east and so our normal trade wind weather pattern that we expect to see in the islands is modified." The lack of trade winds has also led to severe drought conditions since rain showers to the east of the state are not being carried over the islands by the normal flow of air. Residents and farmers in some areas of the Big Island, Maui and Oahu are being asked to voluntary conserve water. Some Big Island ranchers have even had to cut the size of their herds. "You're talking about large scale degradation in pasture lands. They're hurting out there."

Climate change too complex for action - The Bush administration has made clear it is postponing any regulatory action on greenhouse gas emissions believed to be responsible for global warning, citing "the complexity and magnitude" of the issue. The decision follows last year's ruling by the US Supreme Court, which said that the Environmental Protection Agency must devise ways to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions from motor vehicles under the Clean Air Act. But the EPA said in a 588-page report released Friday that given "the complexity and magnitude of the question", there were doubts whether "greenhouse gases could be effectively controlled under the Clean Air Act". The delay, observers indicate, means that any substantive regulatory action will be almost certainly left to the next administration. Environmentalists have alleged that since President Bush came to office in 2001, his administration has ignored and tried to hide looming evidence of global warming. At a hearing in November 2006, Massachusetts argued that it risked losing more than 4.5 metres of land all along its coastline if the sea level should rise by 30 centimetres. But the Bush administration, backed by nine states and several auto manufacturers, urged the court not to intervene, arguing that if the situation was so dire it could not be solved by a simple legal decision. It further argued that reducing emissions from new US motor vehicles would have only a minor effect on global climate change.

The melting of the Arctic ice this year started at least four weeks ahead of the long-term average. Separate teams of scientists in Canada and the US have forecast that this year's seasonal melt of Arctic sea-ice may well reach or exceed last year's record thaw in which the ice retreated to an extent not predicted for several decades. Twenty Russian scientists are to be evacuated from their camp on a drifting ice-floe in the Arctic after it started disintegrating sooner than expected. Russian researchers have a long history of setting up camps on drifting ice-floes, the first being undertaken in 1937. When this latest expedition was launched last year at the time of the record melt, it took the team three weeks to find a suitable piece of ice on which to establish a base. The Russians usually prefer to set up their camps on ice at least three metres thick but the thaw was so extensive that they had to settle for a floe that was only around 1.5m thick.

Antarctic ice shelf 'hanging by thread' - New evidence has emerged that a large plate of floating ice shelf attached to Antarctica is breaking up, in a troubling sign of global warming. Images show that Wilkins Ice Shelf is "hanging by its last thread" to Charcot Island, one of the plate's key anchors to the Antarctic peninsula. "Since the connection to the island... helps stabilise the ice shelf, it is likely the breakup of the bridge will put the remainder of the ice shelf at risk." Wilkins Ice Shelf had been stable for most of the last century, covering around 16,000 square kilometres (6,000 square miles), or about the size of Northern Ireland, before it began to retreat in the 1990s. Since then several large areas have broken away, and two big breakoffs this year left only a narrow ice bridge about 2.7 kilometres (1.7 miles) wide to connect the shelf to Charcot and nearby Latady Island. The latest images show fractures have now opened up in this bridge and adjacent areas of the plate are disintegrating, creating large icebergs. Scientists are puzzled and concerned by the event. The Antarctic peninsula - the tongue of land that juts northward from the white continent towards South America - has had one of the highest rates of warming anywhere in the world in recent decades. But this latest stage of the breakup occurred during the Southern Hemisphere's winter, when atmospheric temperatures are at their lowest. One idea is that warmer water from the Southern Ocean is reaching the underside of the ice shelf and thinning it rapidly from underneath. "Current events are showing that we were being too conservative, when we made the prediction in the early 1990s that Wilkins Ice Shelf would be lost within 30 years. The truth is, it is going more quickly than we guessed." In the past three decades, six Antarctic ice shelves have collapsed completely - Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, Larsen B, Wordie, Muller and the Jones Ice Shelf.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
FRANCE'S shellfish industry is facing ITS WORST CRISIS IN 40 YEARS after stocks of young oysters have been decimated by a mystery ailment.

OKLAHOMA - Drought so severe it has been likened to that of the Dust Bowl era has resulted in two counties in the Oklahoma Panhandle being designated for federal disaster relief benefits. "The farmers and ranchers in northwest Oklahoma are experiencing ONE OF THE WORST DROUGHTS IN HISTORY...Because of our good conservation practices, we don't look like the Dirty '30s but we are as dry or drier as we were back then." The last significant moisture the area received came from snow and ice that fell in the latter days of 2006 and the first part of 2007." Soil tests have shown no moisture 4 inches down into the ground. Even with irrigation, farmers planting corn in recent weeks have had to attempt to start their crop multiple times,because the plants have difficulty establishing roots and have been cut off by strong winds. "You cannot keep enough water on it to keep it growing normally...It's a very, very sad state of affairs out here. The grass is grazed off into the ground on our native pastures...It will take years to recover from this."

AUSTRALIA - Drought threatens grain harvests - Government officials in Australia have warned that its main food-producing region – the Murray-Darling river system – may be facing permanent change because of climate change. Continuing drought conditions are causing concerns as are forecasts that indicate the coming year will be a “shocker” in terms of rainfall. Long term, there is a 60-70% chance that rainfall over the next decade will be below average annual levels. The amount of water flowing into the area is ALREADY THE LOWEST IN A CENTURY – even with what were said to be good autumn rains. The Murray-Darling area is huge and covers an area the size of France and Germany. It accounts for 41% of Australia’s agricultural produce and provides more than £10billion of annual food exports to Asia and the Middle East. While the earlier rains helped improve conditions a drought has set in again over the last three months. That will hit irrigated crops such as rice, grapes and the wide range of horticultural produce grown in the area. There have been warnings that 92% of the irrigated agricultural output from the region could disappear if the warmer weather trends continue.

IRAQ - Drought threatens Iraq's crops and water supply - It's been a year of drought and sand storms across Iraq — a dry spell that has devastated the country's crucial wheat crop.

Friday, July 11, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove
that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/10/08 -
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 VANUATU
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Two small explosions at Halema'uma'u's fuming vent and spectacular fountaining in a lava flow upslope of Royal Gardens subdivision marked an increase in activity Monday and Tuesday at Kilauea volcano on the Big Island. The flow inside Royal Gardens subdivision that threatened one of its remaining structures evidently picked up vigor at the beginning of the week because the lava tube that had been transporting molten rock from the Pu'u 'O'o area to the ocean at Waikupanaha had become clogged upslope, briefly stopping the flow into the sea. The lava flow from the Pu'u 'O'o area has resumed at least partial ocean entry. "With how quickly it made it to the ocean, it must have resumed going through the lava tube. If it was a flow that was going to re-establish, it would've taken days to a week or two." Royal Gardens subdivision has been overrun a number of times since the eruption began on Jan. 3, 1983. The most recent surface breakout started in February.

CHILE - Llaima volcano, one of the most active in South America, spewed pyroclastic rock 1300 feet (400 meters) into night skies early on Thursday. At approximately 4 AM, the Llaima volcano began displaying new, intense activity with a series of explosions occurring inside the mountain’s main crater and lava flows being observed in two areas on the western slope of the peak. This reactivation is the most significant episode since January 1st of this year, when the volcano registered intermittent explosions throughout the night and an emergency plan was activated in the four adjoining municipalities of Vilcún, Culco, Melipeuco and Curacuatín. The volcanic activity at the peak began with renewed intensity Thursday after a noticeable reduction had been observed over the previous 48 hours. Three lava flows can be seen on the mountain heading towards the Calbuco River area, which is under constant observation. For now, the river continues to report normal water levels.

ALASKA - All the fish and birds were gone, the trees were defoliated and their mosses dead, and the local lakes and rivers were lined with yellow scum. This was the aftermath of a mysterious catastrophe in July 2005, as reported by a lodge-owner near the remote Chiginagak volcano in Alaska. A group of geologists has now pieced together what happened. In May 2005, they say, a torrent of sulphurous liquid and mist gushed from the volcano's icy crater, leaving a trail of sulphur deposits and turning salmon spawning-grounds as acidic as lemon juice. "We HAVEN'T SEEN AN EVENT LIKE THIS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD." [Rest of the article is only available at the link if you subscribe to New Scientist magazine.]

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - FREAK weather blocks beach access - High winds and powerful waves have covered an access ramp in sand and rendered it unusable. "The amount of sand is more in line with what we would expect in the winter."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane BERTHA was 296 nmi SSE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

Hurricane Bertha, weakened once again to a Category 1 storm, was causing large swells and high surf on Bermuda beaches Thursday and these conditions are expected to persist for the next few days. Forecasters said it was too soon to tell how much impact the storm might have on the Atlantic island, but predict the hurricane could intensify during the next 24 hours. Bertha's intensity has fluctuated. At its peak, it was a major Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 120 mph. Its wind speed dropped to 75 mph, barely hurricane strength, before picking up once again and reaching Category 2 intensity late Wednesday, with top sustained winds of 105 mph.



HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AZERBAIJAN - A landslide began in Gamarchay Village of Gusar Region, destroying 6 houses and seriously damaging another 25.

CHINA - Five people were buried on Thursday morning in a landslide in north China's Shanxi Province.

NEW ZEALAND - A massive slip is threatening to collapse into the Shotover River, near Queenstown, used by many commercial tourist operators. On 10 July, chunks of a mountain-side started falling into the river near Arthur's Point. Geologists are monitoring the situation continuously and evacuation plans are in place should the cliff face descend in to the river. The landslide is the size of a 10-storey office block and incredibly unstable, with rocks and debris cracking off throughout the day into the river below. It has slipped considerably, and it is still moving. “In a two-hour period the slide moved vertically by about 200mms and horizontally by about 100mm. That is quite a lot of movement in a short period of time." “The people on the river directly below have abandoned operations for the meantime, and those further downstream have evacuation procedures in place." The area is known to be unstable, and there are concerns the Shotover River could be dammed if enough of the hillside collapses, which experts believe is highly likely. “I wouldn't be surprised if we come back tomorrow and there is a big pile of the rubble at the bottom." A low-level water alarm has been set up to alert the team if a rockslide occurs overnight, causing the Shotover River to reduce in level. Expert continue to monitoring the landslide's progress.

HONG KONG, which had its most rainfall on record last month, faces more wet weather until at least July 16.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Fall in tiny animals a 'disaster' - Experts on invertebrates have expressed "profound shock" over a government report showing a decline in zooplankton of more than 70% since the 1960s. The tiny animals are an important food for fish, mammals and crustaceans. It could have implications for creatures all the way up the food chain, from sand eels to the seabirds, such as puffin, which feed on the fish. "The disappearance of butterflies, moth, bees, riverflies and other small animals is an environmental tragedy. But, despite this experience, we were profoundly shocked to read that zooplankton abundance has declined by about 73% since 1960 and about 50% since 1990. This is A BIODIVERSITY DISASTER OF ENORMOUS PROPORTIONS."

Acid sea will dissolve coral reefs - Coral reefs, lobsters and other marine creatures that build calcified shells around themselves could soon dissolve as climate change turns the oceans increasingly acidic.

CALIFORNIA - RECORD-SETTING setting inland temps forecast - Hot temperature surges are not unusual for this time of year on the Central Coast, but hot weather typically peaks in August.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
The American Farm Bureau estimates that the recent floods have damaged $8 billion of crops nation wide. In Wisconsin that number is in the hundreds of millions. The extent of the damage will not be known until harvest. And the next few months will be crucial. In Wisconsin earlier this spring, farmers spent about $4.25 to plant a bushel of corn. With the average corn loss of thirty percent, that number has jumped to about $6.00. Right now a bushel of corn sells for $7.00. If that price falls before the harvest, the losses will be much greater. "A lot of farmers that have 20 to 30 years on the farm are now looking at 50 to 60 percent of their income potentially lost for this year and they don't know if they will be able to cover the bills and still farm next year."

Thursday, July 10, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Every day brings a chance for you to draw in a breath, kick off your shoes, and dance.
Oprah Winfrey

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/9/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 VANUATU
5.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Early earthquake warnings - Seismic 'stress meter' registered signs of quake 10 hours in advance. Using remarkably sensitive new instruments, seismologists have detected minute geological changes that preceded small earthquakes along California's famed San Andreas Fault by as much as 10 hours. If follow-up tests show that the preseismic signal is pervasive, researchers say the method could form the basis of a robust early warning system for impending quakes. When rocks are compressed, the stress forces air out of tiny cracks in the rock. This causes seismic waves to travel slightly faster through the rock. The variations are so slight they can be measured only with very precise instruments.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane BERTHA was 473 nmi SE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

Hurricane Bertha strengthened again into a Category 2 storm on Wednesday as it inched closer to Bermuda, but it remained uncertain whether the hurricane would actually strike the British mid-Atlantic colony. The storm surprised forecasters with the speed and vigor at which it strengthened into a "major" Category 3 hurricane on Monday, only to almost fizzle back into a tropical storm on Tuesday. But warm waters and more favorable atmospheric wind conditions allowed the storm to once again gain traction and reach the second level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity. "Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Bertha could again become a major hurricane." The storm was around 600 miles southeast of Bermuda. It was moving northwest near 12 mph and was expected to slow down and turn north on a course that would take it well to the east of Bermuda. It is highly unlikely that the storm will target the U.S. East Coast.
Bertha's intensification is UNUSUAL. "It's kind of all the more unusual, number one, because its so early in year and, number two, because the water over which it happened really isn't as warm as we would normally suspect it to do (be) so that was a little bit of a surprise to see it intensify that quickly,"

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - Heavy rain has battered parts of Britain, causing train delays, smashing sea walls, flooding shops and leaving thousands of people making preparations to evacuate their houses. More than 2.8 inches of rain fell in the South West and south Wales, exceeding the national average for the whole MONTH - 2.7 inches - in less than 24 hours. The rain was relentless, pouring down steadily over most of the country for more than 12 hours, leaving last week's sunshine and the hottest day of the year a distant memory. Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and south Wales were particularly badly hit, with the Environment Agency issuing six flood warnings - where flooding of homes and businesses is likely - and 33 flood watches, where low level flooding is expected. A major rail line was under threat as the stormy weather ripped chunks out of a sea wall, just a few feet from the Paddington to Penzance route. A 20ft by 10ft section of the sea wall at Dawlish in Devon was broken down by the storm waves and trains were ordered to slow to 30mph. "We are used to the seawall being undermined in the winter, but it is UNUSUAL for this time of the year."

U.S. -
IOWA - Landslide sends Iowa freight train into river. Four engines pulling a freight train tumbled into the Mississippi River in northeastern Iowa on Wednesday after hitting a landslide that may have been caused by heavy rains. Two workers on the train suffered minor injuries. One of the two was rescued by boat and the other walked away from the crash. The accident happened at dawn near Guttenburg, Iowa, on a stretch of track that threads a narrow area bounded by high bluffs on one side and the river on the other. Initial reports "indicated that a large boulder and embankment slide" hit the tracks and "it is suspected that heavy rain saturation weakened the bluff embankment, causing the slide." Rains during June caused extensive flooding and infrastructure damage across the Midwest, with damage at all levels estimated to be in the billions of dollars.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Natural disasters killed at least 150,000 people in the first half of this year, more than in the whole of 2004 when south-east Asia was struck by the tsunami. The figures came from German re-insurance group Munich Re which warned that the pattern this year fits a trend of worsening weather-driven catastrophes, and the company called for increased efforts to fight climate change. Specialists at the German group recorded about 400 natural catastrophes in the first half of 2008, with overall losses so far estimated at $US50 billion ($52.48 billion). In 2007, a total of 960 disasters caused about $US82 billion in damage, of which $US30 billion was covered by insurance.

CALIFORNIA - Firefighters continue to make progress against huge wildfires burning in Goleta and Big Sur, but another fast-moving blaze has destroyed at least 40 homes. Five separate blazes joined Tuesday to form the now massive "Camp" fire. The 38-thousand acre blaze in Butte County jumped a fire line overnight forcing a hasty evacuation of about one-thousand residents about 90 miles north of Sacramento. Meanwhile, the 97-hundred acre "Gap" fire is 55-percent contained and some evacuated residents have been allowed back into their homes. In Big Sur, about 200 evacuated residents have been allowed to return.
The California heat wave is to last until Friday, particularly in central and northern California, and it is likely to strain power resources.

KOREA - Electricity consumption hit A RECORD HIGH Wednesday as a heat wave continued to scorch the nation. The heat has also killed people. Three elderly farmers working in fields in South Gyeongsang Province were found dead from heatstroke Monday, while a 22-year-old college student died during a cross-country hike. The Korea Meteorological Administration issued warnings for Seoul and Gyeonggi Province for the first time this year - about 20 days earlier than previous years - as the heat wave is expected to continue for the rest of the week. Seoul's midday high was almost 33 degrees Celsius. The weather agency also issued alerts in South Jeolla and South Gyeongsang provinces and Daegu. Alerts there are issued for midday highs of over 35 degrees and a heat index over 41.

AUSTRALIA - Murray-Darling flow LOWEST ON RECORD. Water flow into the stricken Murray-Darling Basin was the lowest on record last month.

ARGENTINA - A natural ice dam in southern Argentina broke open spectacularly today - the FIRST TIME IT HAS BURST IN WINTER. The 60m high wall of ice from the Perito Moreno glacier that usually divides Lake Argentina in Patagonia bursts from time to time under the built-up pressure of the held-back water. The event is one of the prime tourist attractions of Argentina. But until now it had occurred in warmer seasons. The glacier's ice dam does not break with any regularity, on average just once every four to six years. It remained intact for 16 years until the last time it broke, on March 14, 2006. "This is the first time the glacier has broken up in winter. It could be related to global warming as rising temperatures affects ice friction." "There is also increased loss of mass in the front of the glacier, which would result in fewer and shorter periods in which the ice is in contact with the basin of the lake."

CALIFORNIA - Mount Shasta glaciers growing, despite warming - Global warming is shrinking glaciers all over the world, but the seven tongues of ice creeping down Mount Shasta's flanks are a RARE exception: They are the only long-established glaciers in the continental U.S. that are growing. Mount Shasta is actually benefiting from changing weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean. A warming Pacific Ocean means more moist air. On the mountain, precipitation falls as snow, adding to the glaciers enough to overcome a 1.8 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature in the last century. By comparison, the glaciers in the Sierra Nevada, more than 500 miles south of Mount Shasta, are exposed to warmer summer temperatures and are retreating. Climate change has cut the number of glaciers at Montana's Glacier National Park from 150 to 26 since 1850, and some scientists project there will be none left within a generation. The storied snows at Africa's Mount Kilimanjaro might disappear by 2015. Although Mount Shasta's glaciers are growing, researchers say the 4.7 billion cubic feet of ice on its flanks could be gone by 2100. For the glaciers to remain their current size, Shasta would have to receive 20 percent more snowfall for every 1.8-degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature. Even without global warming, another threat to Shasta's glaciers could come far more quickly: a volcanic eruption could melt them, creating mud flows that could bury the surrounding small communities. Over the last 4,000 years, Shasta has erupted about every 250 to 300 years, and did so most recently about 200 years ago.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"It won't stop raining. I blame the cows. They sit down before its going to rain,
but why should they decide when its going to rain or not?"
Adam, U.K.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/8/08 -
5.1 KYRGYZSTAN
6.2 SOUTHERN PERU
6.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

PERU - A magnitude-6.2 earthquake in southern Peru on Tuesday killed a 93-year-old man after a wall of his house collapsed on him and at least four others were injured.

PHILIPPINES - A 5.4-magnitude earthquake of tectonic origin rocked parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila on Tuesday morning, the second tremor of such magnitude in three days. The quake was part of an “earthquake swarm” or series of tremors that started last Thursday, caused by the movement of the East Luzon Trough off the northeastern seaboard. “Earthquake swarms” are common and could last for over a month. The epicenter of Tuesday's earthquake was on the same location as last Sunday, 98 kilometers east of Baler town, Aurora province, with a depth of 13 kilometers. The tremors over these past days do not confirm rumors of a strong earthquake in the capital next week. There is no way to predict when and where an earthquake would strike, even though scientists could estimate how much magnitude a fault is capable of producing.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - A huge fountain of lava spurting from the Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has scientists scratching their heads in disbelief. They said they haven't seen anything like the geyser, which began shooting from the volcano's lava flow near the summit just after 11 p.m. Sunday, in more than a year. The lava wave measures about 40 feet high and erupted about six miles from the ocean.
Scientists said that Sunday's new lava breakout has apparently diverted lava from the tube feeding the Waikupanaha ocean entry point. Meanwhile, a narrow aa flow crept through Royal Gardens subdivision over the weekend, covering the pre-existing pahoehoe surface and igniting small fires at the forest boundary. The burning brush also threatened the makeshift house of Royal Gardens' self-described hermit who was not home at the time. Lava fountains up to 40 feet high burst out about four miles above the self-described hermit's homestead in Royal Gardens on Sunday night and continued through Monday. A brush fire started by a long, thin finger of lava set the wet, rotting wood of his house smoldering. The only neighbor in the otherwise deserted 3-square-mile subdivision, put out the fire. The hermit knows his homestead is at risk, separated from lava flows by a rise of land just 10 feet high. Civil Defense officials have warned him in the past that they cannot help him if he insists on residing in remote Royal Gardens, accessible only by hiking or helicopter. His makeshift house is just a pavilion, built with scraps from other houses abandoned long ago when the first lava entered the subdivision in 1983. The pavilion is not even on his own land, but was built mistakenly on acreage designated for a park. (photos)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Peninsula doomsday report - The Mornington Peninsula will be hit by rising sea levels, droughts, storm surges and heatwaves as climate change spirals out of control, a new report warns. "The report points to the need for state and local governments to consider issues of climate very seriously and to take measures to safeguard communities." In the long term, storms are expected to be more frequent and to increase in scale as the sea level rises. "Houses on the coast may already be vulnerable to extreme weather events such as storm surge and king tides."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane BERTHA was 542 nmi NE of Beef Island, BVI.

MYANMAR - An estimated 2.4 million people were severely affected by Cyclone Nargis, equivalent to more than one third of the population of 7.3 million in the affected townships.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALASKA - This summer may be shaping up to be one of the rainiest in Kodiak’s history. DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS WERE BROKEN over the holiday weekend on July 4 and 5. On the Fourth of July, 2.67 inches of rain fell, making it the fifth rainiest July day on record. The previous record was 1.06 inches in 1958. On July 5, 2.07 inches of rain fell. The previous record stood at 1.77 inches in 1952. Overall, during the rainy spell beginning on July 2 and ending July 6, the National Weather Service estimates 7.71 inches of rain fell. The rainiest July day recorded in Kodiak was on July 20, 1998, with 3.54 inches. So far, this July is the ninth rainiest on record. DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE ALSO BROKEN LAST MONTH on June 25 and 30. On June 25, 1.51 inches of rain fell. On June 30, a record-breaking low of 37 degrees was recorded.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

RUSSIA faces an increase in disease, drought and damage to infrastructure because of climate change. "We're very worried.... We have to act in time. Some regions of Russia need urgent attention." "We must understand that damage caused by climate change is here and now rather than a problem in the distant future.... There's a lot at stake, including our health." Warmer weather in spring is causing higher incidences of encephalitis, malaria and the West Nile virus in parts of this vast country. Global warming and unpredictable weather also risk causing floods and droughts in southern regions. Melting Arctic permafrost is already damaging buildings and roads and could impact on energy infrastructure, as well as affect the livelihoods of native populations. Since coming to power last month, the President has ordered measures to reduce by 40 percent the amount of energy Russia uses per unit of gross domestic product by 2020. But the subject is still not part of general public debate in a country that benefits from high energy prices and whose economy has boomed in the past few years, improving the livelihoods of many.

AUSTRALIA has begun importing honey, after a 40 per cent fall in the the country's domestic honey production. Bushfires in one of the state's national parks have destroyed more than 3,000 hives over the past three years. The drought has also reduced honey productivity.

TEXAS - The recent rains are a great relief to a parched Rio Grande Valley, but won't end the drought. Hidalgo County received about four inches of rainfall over the past week and more is expected throughout the week. So, this July is about to be as UNUSUALLY wet as last year's. Already, in the first seven days of the month, the Valley received about two inches of rain more than it did in June. And it is above the two inches or so normally seen as average in July. A storm system from the Gulf Coast began to hover in the area on July 4, steadily pouring rain as no other weather system formed to push it along. And even as crops like citrus, sugar cane, soy and corn benefit from the rain, cotton isn't faring so well. The rain has caused some cotton seeds to sprout before harvest time.

SPACE WEATHER-
ISRAEL - JULY 8 - A large meteor crossed Israel's skies on Tuesday evening at approximately 8:15 pm, and it was seen by many residents, mainly in Samaria. Citizens residing in north, central Israel reported seeing the object travel from east to west at great speed; some say it made shrieking sound 'like a missile'. "The reason we were able to observe this meteor is because it was relatively large. Most meteors don't weigh more than 1/1000 gram, and this one apparently weighed a few grams."

CALIFORNIA - JULY 1 - A ball of fire seen streaking across the sky was reported by at least a dozen rural Southern California residents. The calls began at about 10:45 a.m. Tuesday morning and came from across San Bernardino and Riverside counties. "Everybody seems to be looking north to where they are." [Reports of a meteor also came from Nevada, Arizona & Utah.]
Eyewitness accounts.
The American Meteor Society keeps a log of fireballs that have been spotted. Here's the 2008 list.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Give no decision till both sides thou'st heard.
Phocylides

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.2 quake in the RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
and a 6.0 quake in SOUTHERN PERU.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/7/08 -
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 TONGA

PERU - A magnitude 6.0 earthquake rattled southern Peru early today, startling residents in the Andean country's second-largest city, Arequipa, who ran out of their homes into the streets. It was recorded at a depth of 46 miles (74 km). Peru's police and civil defense agency said there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage, but magnitude 6 quakes are capable of causing severe damage. Witnesses said people refused to go back into their homes after the quake, fearing they might collapse in an aftershock. Dirt tumbled onto sections of Peru's coastal highway. The epicenter was in an unpopulated area. Still, there were reports of isolated power outages.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea volcano has been SPEWING LAVA IN GREATER QUANTITIES THAN HAVE EVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE, scientists have warned. The lava flow from Kilauea, which has been erupting on and off for 25 years, started on Nov 21 last year. But experts said that more lava is spilling from the volcano and into the ocean than usual. (photo)
Lava chemistry creating volcano mystery - Scientists are questioning long-standing beliefs about Kilauea volcano's underground workings. A University of Hawaii-Manoa geologist-geophysicist says he has found possible differences in lava samples at the volcano's summit and its Puu Oo vent 20 miles away. That evidence seems to contradict the idea that lava is rising from a single magma reservoir under the summit and moving downhill. This year's summit eruption was the first opportunity in 26 years to look at how magma moves to the volcano. The last eruption there was in September 1982. He cautioned that his lab is still investigating to determine whether the lava samples may be contaminated.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Greenland meltwater will take slow wave around globe - Pacific nations threatened with disappearing beneath the waves as sea levels rise have been given a partial reprieve – for a few decades at least. But Europe and North America could be at much greater risk of floods than previously appreciated. So claims the first systematic analysis of what will happen to the water from melting Greenland ice. Most of the melted water will stay in the Atlantic for at least 50 years, where sea levels will rise much faster as a result. Only small amounts will make it into the Pacific Ocean in that time. "It is often assumed that sea levels will rise instantaneously, but that is unlikely, given what we know about ocean dynamics. The Greenland ice cap is much less of a threat to tropical islands in the Pacific than it is for the coasts of North America and Europe." Meltwater forms a "wave" of rising sea levels that gradually works its way south from Greenland, down the American coast, reaching the tip of southern Africa after about a decade. After that, it slowly spills east through the Indian Ocean. The "additional" water only reaches the Pacific after about 30 years. Fifty years after the meltwater is released from Greenland, the model predicts, sea-level rise could be 30 times greater around Greenland and down the eastern side of North America, including the Gulf of Mexico, than in the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, sea-level rises in Europe are around six times that of the Pacific, but only a fifth as great as on the opposite shore of the Atlantic. This does not mean that the Pacific Islands or other low-lying areas like Bangladesh in the Indian Ocean, are safe. The thermal expansion of water as a result of global warming is already causing waters to rise around the world. But the delay does buy these vulnerable nations some time. The model indicates that meltwater from Antarctica's ice sheets would spread more slowly still. The strong currents in the Southern Ocean could prevent substantial sea-level rise from reaching much of the world for centuries. He found that after 50 years, rises from Antarctic meltwater in the northern Atlantic and Pacific would be "barely measurable".

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane Bertha was 675 miles (1085 KM) East-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. A gradual weakening trend is expected within the next couple of days.

Bertha, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, has strengthened to a Category 3 storm. The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the hurricane has now reached maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometres an hour. However, it is not yet near land. The hurricane is located about 1,175 kilometres east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, which include St. Martin and St. Kitts, and about 1,855 kilometres southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane, which grew from a tropical storm early Monday, is travelling at about 19 kilometres per hour and is moving west-northwest. Bertha is expected to make a gradual turn toward the northwest and decrease in forward speed over the next two days, the Hurricane Center said. However, it's still too early to tell if Bertha will hit Bermuda but residents are being urged to monitor the situation. (satellite photo & map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - People in west Lancashire witnessed a tornado-like funnel cloud over the weekend, the result of FREAK unseasonal weather. (video)
A powerful FREAK twister caused extensive damage to a water park site near Burnham on Sunday. (photos) Monday, forecasters warned Merseyside to expect some “extreme” weather after high-altitude twisters whipped across the region. Stormy conditions over the weekend created a “funnel cloud” in the sky above Burscough and Ormskirk. The meteorological phenomenon – a tornado that does not touch the ground – was sighted by residents at around 2.30pm on Sunday. Funnel clouds are formed when powerful storms and thunderstorms meet, causing wind to blow in different directions. In the UK they tend to be masked by heavy rain – which makes them difficult to detect. The emergency services said there were no reports of damage. “We have about 30 to 40 touchdown tornadoes a year in the UK."
More rain has fallen in the first seven days of July than the whole of June. Heavy showers falling over Gloucestershire so far this month have beaten the June record. However, there are no indications at the moment there will be a repeat of last summer's flooding. Throughout June in Dursley they had 49mm, 13mm fell in the centre of Gloucester and approximately 20mm in Cheltenham. And so far in July 55mm has fallen in the county in 12 hours.
A little known phenomenon called the "European monsoon" is partly to blame for another British summer washout, experts have warned. Less dramatic than the Indian monsoon, it has nevertheless been responsible for heavy downpours and lightning storms. Heavy showers are expected for much of this week and that could set the pattern for the rest of the month and beyond. According to climatologists the seasonal rains are brought by winds rolling off the Atlantic which drive depressions east across the UK and into the continent. The phenomenon happens to varying degrees in about seven out of 10 years and can be influenced by atmospheric changes elsewhere in the world. Those factors include the shifting of the sub-tropical jet-stream from south of the Himalayas to north of the Tibetan plateau, early warming of the north Pacific Ocean and the disappearance of snow and ice from northern Canada. Climatologists believe the European monsoon may become an increasingly noticeable summer event in future years because of global warming. As Britain suffered another soaking, severe weather warnings were in place across parts of the country and forecasters predicted summer was all but over. "This year we've not had a prolonged warm, dry spell. We've had several nice days but not a couple of weeks at a time. You have to go back to 2006 for a glorious summer, hot, dry and sunny. This week is going to be thundery and showery and the following week will be terrible and the end of the month will be terrible. The rainy theme will continue through the summer. The summer as a whole will be in the top five wettest on record, about as bad as last year which was absolutely terrible."

SOUTH AFRICA - Torrential rain lashing the Western Cape has left at least one person dead in Citrusdal and thousands homeless on the Cape Flats and the City of Cape Town is trucking food and blankets to ease the misery. Philippi, on the Cape Flats, was hit hardest with thousands of houses flooded in the Kosovo, Pola Park, Boys Town and Never Never areas. On the West Coast, rain hit the Citrusdal district hard. A bridge across the Olifants River was washed away, taking with it a man who returning home from visiting his girlfriend on Saturday night. To the east of Citrusdal residents of the Bo Rivier area were unable to reach the town this morning after a 10m chunk of tar road gave way - leaving a vast ditch across the road. Mop-up operations are under way in the province, though the Cape Town Weather office has warned that the cold, wet and windy conditions are set to persist until Wednesday. Heavy rain - between 50mm and 60mm - is expected in parts of the Western Cape and more flooding is expected. Light snow is possible over the western high ground of the Western Cape and Northern Cape. 3600 structures in 24 informal settlements were affected by flooding. Altogether about 16,000 people have been affected.

INDIA - Flood situation in Assam remained grim with the worst-hit Dehmaji and Lakhimpur cut-off for the fourth day on Monday while the Brahmaputra was flowing above the danger level in some other districts. Road and rail communication remained affected in flood prone districts of Dhemaji and Lakhimpur where the rivers Gai, Jiadhol and Ranganadi had breached several areas and inundated vast tracts of habitation and cropland. Flood water has washed away the boulder base of both sides of a railway bridge. The second wave of flood has so far affected a population of more than five lakh people. The first wave of floods in the two districts last month had taken 22 lives and affected 10 lakh people.
The rainfall in the state till now has already surpassed the past five years' records. Till now the state has received 755mm rainfall. Records available with the Patna Met office revealed that till July 5 last year, the state had recorded 430mm rainfall while in 2006, 375mm rains were recorded. The average rainfall is about 1,200mm. “The reason for heavy rains was the active monsoon this year. The monsoon arrived in the state on June 10. Since then, the monsoon trough has been hovering over the state. If such a situation prevails, the rainfall is expected to reach the average figure by August this year."

PHILIPPINES - 102 Iloilo villages in 'high-risk' landslide zone, 9 major rivers 'heavily-affected'. Earthquakes from way back in 1983 and 1997 played a major role in the destabilization of the land area, rendering the soil and rock formation here "very fragile and unstable." The yearly typhoons made it worse thereafter, particularly Typhoon Frank which brought a massive devastation and widespread damage this year. Meantime, nine major river systems of Iloilo and Antique suffered heavily in the onslaught of Typhoon Frank.

U.S. -
IOWA - The Flood of 2008 officially ended Monday. The Iowa River in Iowa City was less than two inches from going below flood stage for the first time in 30 days. At 7 a.m., the river was at 22.16 feet. That's still nearly 6 feet higher than the water level was at this time last year. The river reached a record high of 31.5 feet on June 16. Going below flood stage marks the official end of the Flood of 2008, but the flood experience is far from over for those working on cleaning up their homes and businesses devastated by record high waters that inundated some areas for weeks. (links to photo gallerys)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - Snow, hail, rain and gale-force winds firing from all directions dealt Transit NZ its MOST DIFFICULT WINTER WEATHER EVER in the central region last weekend. They just couldn't second-guess anything. "Well, it snowed in one direction, then rained from another, and hail, ice and wind roared through as well. We just didn't know which way the weather was going to hit us. It was all very complicated and VERY UNUSUAL." Keeping the roads open was of prime importance, ..."but not that easy when you're unsure what to expect and where it's coming from". The storms of 2004 and July 2006 had been bad enough, "but at least we knew which direction they were coming in from. Not like last weekend, when weather came from all sides and very complex. One minute it was snowing, then 30 minutes in came the rain from another direction. It was very weird."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Extreme Weather Magazine - This is the first new weather magazine in years, and it's supposedly a very flashy and informative issue put out by the folks over at Astronomy Magazine. "Extreme Weather, on newsstands June 17, covers the science of weather and its effects, with authoritative feature stories and spectacular photos and illustrations. Whether you are a casual observer or a serious enthusiast, Extreme Weather offers something for everyone, with articles focused on violent weather, weather science, weather imaging, and more."

Monday, July 7, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Though my hands shake, my heart does not."
Stephen Hopkins

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/6/08 -
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.5 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.7 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS

CHINA - The 12 May earthquake that rocked Sichuan Province in China was the first there in recorded history and unexpected in its magnitude. Now a team of geoscientists is looking at the potential for future earthquakes due to earthquake-induced changes in stress. After the 12 May earthquake, stress increased on faults running parallel to the Wenchuan-Maowen fault and the two major faults that are perpendicular and to the north of the fault. Some smaller faults south of the earthquake zone show a decrease in stress. However, the majority of the faults in the area are still stressed. "The occurrence of triggered earthquakes after a major earthquake can be months, years or decades...the historic record in Turkey shows a series of earthquakes that progress from east to west over 60 years." "The model shows where an increase in the potential for failure may occur, but we do not know the trigger point for these faults. The analysis does not say there is going to be an earthquake, just that the potential exists on some of the faults."

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - More lava than usual is spilling from Hawaii's Kilauea volcano into the ocean. The lava is emerging near the Pacific on the southeastern side of the Big Island.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - FREAK king tide hits boat ramp - A river boat launch ramp and a car park were flooded by a RARE king tide last Wednesday. The event was caused by the combination of strong southerly winds pushing water into the bay and the incoming high tide. "It's a FAIRLY FREAKISH occurrence. We haven't had one for years."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane Bertha was located about 845 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Tropical depression 5-E made landfall just west of Lazaro Cardenas in SW Mexico. (The remnants of the depression are expected to produce very heavy rain and the potential exists for flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.)

Bertha became the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season today and its winds were expected to strengthen further over the next few days at open sea. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from Bertha's center. Forecasters said it was still too early to determine if Bertha will eventually hit land.

There is another tropical cyclone forming about three days behind Bertha below the Cape Verde Islands that could develop into a tropical depression soon. Conditions in that region are favorable for tropical cyclone formation and it would become Tropical Storm Cristobal once the winds reach a sustained speed of 39mph or more.

PHILIPPINES - More than a thousand fishermen died or went missing during the height of typhoon Frank (international codename: Fengshen) and have received little attention and help from the national government. There are 119 fishing vessels that sank during the typhoon. "This is even a bigger disaster than the M/V Princess of the Stars [the passenger ferry that capsized during the typhoon with more than 800 passengers and crew]." "We should put dog tags on them and make sure that those dog tags contain their names, their address, their next of kin, as well as their social security number to ensure that no fishermen will go out to sea without the proper insurance and the proper identification."

BURMA - It has been two months since Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar on May 2, devastating entire communities and killing thousands and destroying the lives of thousands more. Though eight weeks have passed, the needs facing survivors remain critical. Thousands of people in the worst affected Irrawaddy Delta area continue to struggle with day-to-day survival and there is a significant shortage of adequate aid and assistance in many areas. Future outbreaks of disease among the survivors are a concern, particularly as the heavy rains continue. Many diseases, including malaria and dengue, are endemic in Myanmar. Currently, it is the season for these two diseases and as heavy rains continue and people lack adequate access to food, shelter or clean water, their vulnerability to disease increases.

INDIA - Every year nature unleashes its fury as the monsoon arrives but for residents of Uttar Durgapur, a tiny village, a lesson learnt is that mother nature gives ample signals of the impending disaster and it pays if one learns and accordingly prepares for the same. Residents of this village near Kulpi in South 24 Parganas district of coastal West Bengal have learnt just that and hope to use it to avert major tragedies. "Ants carrying eggs to higher positions in the house, snails inching up higher grounds in the fields and flocks of grasshoppers flying haphazardly indicate rainy weather coupled with strong wind and cyclone." Elders feel the occurrence of natural disasters has become more intense in recent times. "Particularly last three weeks of September and first two weeks of October are bringing battering rain, flood and cyclone for the past few years."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
THAILAND - June rain BROKE 20-YEAR RECORD in Chandigarh. Chandigarh experienced the highest recorded June rainfall in the last 20 years - breaking the previous record of 256.6mm in 1988.

CHINA - More extreme weather for China over the last few days. Heavy rain is causing floods and traffic chaos in many parts of the country. Over 95% of the flights at Beijing's Capital International Airport were delayed or cancelled on Friday. The heaviest rainstorm in the city so far this summer also flooded the airport expressway and a major subway line. The rain has cooled down many parts of the country which have been experiencing searing temperatures in the past few days. More rain is forecast for about half of the country in the next 10 days, the National Meteorological Center said on Friday.

NORWAY - An UNUSUALLY powerful thunderstorm struck Oslo Saturday afternoon, flooding streets, downing power lines and setting several fires. Many homes in Oslo and Baerum lost electricity, as well as telephone and TV signals. Many were stranded on outlying islands, where they had been enjoying a sunny summer afternoon at the beach.

U.S. -
MIDWEST - Mosquitoes and a muskrat may not be part of biblical flooding prophecies, but in the United States Midwest region, these two creatures are yet another sign of the rain-soaked times. After heavy spring precipitation, multiple rivers throughout the central United States overflowed, causing flooding in several states in early June. Since then, everything from crop-damaging storms and town-destroying waters to blood-sucking insects and a burrowing rodent have wreaked havoc in the area. In some parts of Iowa there are 20 times the normal number of mosquitos, and in Chicago up to five times more than usual. The Farm Bureau has pegged Iowa’s agricultural losses alone at roughly $4 billion. Other states hurt by flooding are: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. As of July 3, the National Weather Service indicated that flooding continued to affect 60 locations, with major flooding in eight towns, primarily along the border of Missouri and Illinois.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SOUTH KOREA - Nation braces for heat wave - steamy weather is likely to continue through this week with some regions being put under a heat wave alert.

KUWAIT - Several fires reported as Kuwait sizzles in grip of heat wave.

CALIFORNIA - Heatwave looms as wildires rage across California - hundreds of wildfires are still raging across California as forecasters warned on Sunday that a looming heatwave was set to deliver drier, hotter conditions.

Sunday, July 6, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives.
A. Sachs

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/5/08 -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SEA OF OKHOTSK
7.7 SEA OF OKHOTSK
7/4/08 -
5.1 LAPTEV SEA
7/3/08 -
5.6 TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO
6.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
CHILE declared a red alert around the Llaima volcano on Friday, just days after it spewed lava down one of its sides. The red alert affected a lightly populated area that is home to about 40 people on the slopes of the volcano. Llaima's renewed activity, which on Thursday was quite significant, comes after the Chaiten volcano, 760 miles (1,220 km) south of Santiago, started erupting on May 2 for the first time in thousands of years, spewing out ash, gas and molten rock. (photo)
On Friday, the Llaima volcano could not be seen, due to snowmelt and heavy rainfall in the entire area of Melipeuco, Vilcún and Cherquenco. The rising water levels of the Calbuco River are currently the most daunting concern for the area.

INDONESIA - Geological experts in Indonesia Friday issued an alert, advising tourists not to climb Mount Anak Krakatau because it's spewing red-hot rocks and toxic fumes. The warning was the highest level alert possible.

SICILY - Mount Etna has been releasing continuous plumes of ash and steam since late June. (satellite photo)

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BANGLADESH - A sea surge blamed on monsoonal storms marooned 200,000 people in Bangladesh when a number of villages in southern coastal districts were swamped.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 05E was 147 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical storm BERTHA was 982 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.

Tropical Storm Bertha was expected to become the 2008 Atlantic storm season's first hurricane in about 3 days as it steams toward the United States east coast over open waters between Bermuda and the Caribbean islands. It's still too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land. The majority of computer models used to predict storm tracks suggest Bertha would turn to the north-west toward Bermuda. One model, however, predicted the storm would keep on going straight toward the Caribbean. It was moving west at a relatively brisk 21 mph (33 kph).
Tropical Storm Bertha is THE FIRST STORM ON RECORD TO DEVELOP OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IN JULY. July storms typically develop in the Gulf of Mexico, the Eastern Caribbean Sea, or in the Western Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas or Florida. It's the time of year when the hurricane season is expected to pick up, but Bertha developed in the most unlikely of places. Although no other storms have developed off the African coast in the month of July, some of the worst storms in history did develop there. Hurricane Frederic formed in late August of 1979. Frederic was a category four hurricane when it made landfall near Mobile Bay. The strong winds from the hurricane literally emptied Mobile Bay. Other hurricanes that took similar paths include Hurricane Georges in 1998 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004. In 1989, Hurricane Hugo developed in the middle of September. Hugo devastated the northeast Caribbean Sea as a category four hurricane before slamming into the South Carolina coast at category three status. In 1995, Hurricane Luis developed in late August off the coast of Africa. Luis was a major problem in the northeast Caribbean Sea before weakening in the North Atlantic. Although Bertha is expected to take a less threatening track across the Atlantic, the storm still bears watching simply because the region in which Bertha developed is notorious for developing the worst storms on the record books.

Tropical waves emerging from Africa have been stronger in this early season than last year, and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures between Africa and the Caribbean Sea ran higher than normal through June. Water temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic last month were about 1 degree above normal. Those elements are important because warm water becomes fuel for hurricanes. Water temperatures will continue to rise through the September heart of the season. Tropical waves are the seeds of storms that form moving west across the Atlantic. If those are stronger than normal, they are more likely to survive to become storms. During June and much of July, most storms form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Those areas have proved barren so far. Wind circling a low pressure area over the eastern United States most of June created winds from the west over the Gulf and Caribbean, which have dampened storm chances.

PHILIPPINES - The La Niña episode that started in September 2007 has ended. The La Niña refers to the extensive cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is associated with wetter conditions in the western side of the Pacific, including the Philippines and Southeast Asia, and long dry spells in lands on the western side of the Americas. Sea surface temperature observations in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are now close to their average or normal values. Nonetheless, weather systems such as the inter-tropical convergence zone, the southwest monsoon, the easterly wave, and the ridge of a high pressure area are expected to affect the country for the month of July. "Two or three tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the month." Last month, Cyclone "Frank" had an "erratic track" while crossing the country, becoming one of the fiercest typhoons this year. Rainfall for June was "above to way above normal" over the Visayas, particularly in Western Visayas and the western and southern parts of Mindanao, where widespread flooding and landslides occurred.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - A landslide forced residents of a village, 102 families, to immediately vacate their homes Thursday afternoon in Zamboanga City. On Thursday, state weather forecasters warned people living in Southern Luzon, Western Visayas and the entire of Mindanao of possible landslides due to days of heavy rains.

BRITAIN - Weather experts have predicted torrential rain will hit Gloucestershire this weekend. The rain is on its way due to an "unseasonal drop of low pressure across the Atlantic" heading in the county's direction. "It is an UNUSUAL Atlantic depression for this time of year and something we would usually see in January not July."

IRELAND - From a landslide in Courtown, to flash flooding in Gorey, and howling winds damaging trees on the Main Street on July 1, Mother Nature has thrown it all at them over the past week. Summer 2007 has lived in legend as being one of the worst summers in recent years, but Summer 2008 is shaping up to throw another spanner in the works of the local tourist and agricultural trade.

BANGLADESH - Massive landslides and wall collapses caused by heavy monsoon rains on Thursday killed at least 11 people while two others drowned. Five houses were crushed under mud.

COTE D'IVOIRE - Heavy rains in Abidjan have displaced 450 families and killed six people.

CANADA - June's weather is being called a month of extremes. The COLDEST JUNE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD of 1.6 degrees was recorded on the 11th. And the HOTTEST JUNE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD, 37.9 degrees happened during the late afternoon of the 29th. The previous June benchmarks were 1.9 degrees and 36.8 degrees. One other UNUSUAL June weather factor was the number of days with thunderstorms was greater than average, 9 compared to an average of 6.
28,000 lighting flashes, a heat wave and RECORD RAINFALL pounded on British Columbia this past week. From Sunday, the 29th of June to Saturday, July 5, there have been about 28,000 lightning flashes in the province. Lightning helped start about 190 forest fires in the province since Sunday. The thunderstorms were caused by a flow of moist, unstable air from the western United States that spread through the province after last week's heat wave. The heat created currents of rising air in the moist and unstable air, which eventually formed the thunderstorms. Lytton, which had its fair share of news this week with the Jackass Mountain fire, Trans-Canada Highway closure and train derailment that leaked ethylene glycol into the Thompson River, may have another claim to fame this week. On Tuesday evening, around the time when four Canadian Pacific Railway tanker cars were pushed off the tracks by a rock or mudslide, about 200 mm - nearly eight inches - of rain fell in a two-hour period. "Buckets that were empty were filled to about [200 mm]. That's EXTRAORDINARY. "
The Windsor area has experienced the WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD, with an estimated 172 millimetres of rain falling in the region throughout the month. That beats the previous 1960 record of 162.1 millimetres and far exceeds last year's June rainfall, pegged at 65.2 millimetres. The normal amount of rainfall for this region in June is 89.8 millimetres. Along with the record amount of rain, Windsor-Essex also had an UNUSUALLY high number of rainy days in June.

U.S.-
VIRGINIA - Wildfires. Floods. Tornadoes. Blizzards. This is shaping up to be an EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE weather year across the nation. It's worth going back to take a look at some of the biggest weather events that have already occurred in Southwest Virginia, all the while keeping in mind that the typically hottest weeks of summer, most of the Atlantic tropical season and the start of a new winter are all still ahead in 2008.
Feb. 10 wind storm - The National Weather Service in Blacksburg had significant damage reported in all 40 of the counties it covers in three states, an UNPRECEDENTED coverage of wind damage in its forecast area. Several hours of 30 to 50 mph winds with gusts topping 70 on a partly cloudy afternoon caused widespread damage to trees, power lines, roof shingles, and even some structures across virtually all of Southwest Virginia. Some 360 wildfires were sparked, THE MOST ON RECORD IN ONE DAY.
March 30 ice - It only affected scattered rural areas in higher elevations, but the lateness made it UNUSUAL.
June 3 Roanoke tornado - estimated $350,000 in damage. It was the FIRST CONFIRMED TORNADO WITHIN THE CITY IN 34 YEARS.
Drought and wildfires - Much of Southwest Virginia has remained in moderate drought throughout the first half of 2008; sporadic rains have not made a significant dent on three years of below-normal rainfall.
June 4-10 heat wave - At a time of year when highs in the low 80s are typical for Roanoke, temperatures soared above 90 for a week, and went into the mid 90s on five consecutive days, setting or tying TWO DAILY RECORD HIGHS. With highs in the upper 80s and low 90s when the upper 70s are more typical, Blacksburg set RECORD HIGHS ON FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
June 22 severe storms - Parts of Roanoke and Blacksburg were among many locations in Southwest Virginia nailed by severe hailstorms, as cold air dipped UNUSUALLY low in the atmosphere for so late in the year, allowing for rapid storm growth and prolific hail.
This list would be busy for an entire year of weather, but there are still six months yet.

MASSACHUSETTS - A pool of cold air hovering over south-central Canada, coupled with a hot and humid air mass over southern New England, have created turbulent weather in Boston. A cold pocket above that humid air mass made the storms more severe. "It's fair to say we had basically a tropical air mass in place. It's not unusual to have thunderstorm activity in late-June or July, but to have the frequency we've had the last week to 10 days is." Wednesday afternoon Somerville was hit by 1-inch hail, UNUSUAL for the region. And Braintree recorded 62-mile-per-hour winds. Heavy rain caused some urban flooding. This past week's weather is more typical of Florida, with almost daily bursts of thunderstorms that have interrupted humid afternoons.

WISCONSIN - June closed as ONE OF THE WETTEST ON RECORD for parts of Wisconsin. Madison and Milwaukee both got about 11 inches of rain. Typically in June, southern Wisconsin gets four to four and a-half inches of rain. Madison's previous record of nearly 10 inches was set 30 years ago. Milwaukee's last record of just over 10 inches was set in 1917. Even before June was half over, many parts of southern Wisconsin got drenched with 8 to 16 inches of rain.

MICHIGAN - it was the WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD at Houghton Lake, which normally receives 2.93 inches of rain but got 9.2 inches last month. Lake City, 30 miles to the west, normally sees 2.95 inches of rain but was inundated with 10.66 inches last month. The weather service measured 5.66 inches of rain at Grand Rapids, 1.99 inches above normal. Almost half that total, 2.71 inches, fell on June 7-8.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - More than 2800 people in Canada have been forced to leave their homes as wildfires ravage the province of Saskatchewan.
Northern Saskatchewan's forest fires are set to send smoke and gases into the stratosphere. Scientists say the wildfires in northern Saskatchewan could go "pyro" this weekend, sending ash, smoke and gases soaring more than 10 kilometres up into Earth's upper atmosphere. It is one of the more spectacular ways nature regenerates the northern boreal forest - and one with such far-ranging implications that NASA has two research planes and 120 scientists in Cold Lake, Alta., tracking the fires. "It's the same as having a volcano go off." A cool front moving in over the fires is setting up the kind of explosive conditions that can send smoke billowing into the stratosphere. Northern communities have been evacuated because of the fires, which have burned more than 4,000 square kilometres. The fires are giving researchers an unprecedented close-up look at boreal fires, which are expected to grow more common as the climate changes.

TEXAS faces 6th drought in past 12 years — For many farmers and ranchers, it's becoming an all-too-familiar routine: One drought ends and another begins.

GREECE - Meteorologists are warning of record temperatures next week, when a mini-heatwave is expected to sweep most areas of Greece. According to the forecasts, the hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday, when the mercury is expected to soar as high as 41 degrees centigrade.

Extreme weather events predicted for warming North America - Atlanta is thirsty, New York is sizzling, Des Moines is flooded - all these situations have happened this year, and a new federal government report predicts an increasing frequency of the same kinds of extremes across North America as the planet warms. Droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more common. "We are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events." A warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes. The strongest cold season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights. Most of North America is experiencing more UNUSUALLY hot days and nights and fewer unusually cold days. The last 10 years have seen FEWER SEVERE COLD WAVES THAN ANY OTHER 10 YEAR PERIOD IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD, which dates back to 1895. The number of heat waves has been increasing since 1950. There has been a decrease in frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season over the past century. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense and now account for a larger percentage of total precipitation. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions. Storm tracks have shifted northward in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific over the past 50 years. The strongest cold season storms are becoming even stronger in the North Pacific.

Hot future shock: Heat-Wave temperatures forecast to soar - According to one researcher, by the end of the century, high temperatures for once-in-a-generation heat waves will rise twice as fast as everyday average temperatures. Chicago, for example, would reach 115 degrees in such an event by 2100. Paris heat waves could near 109 with Lyon coming closer to 114. Los Angeles will reach 117 and Atlanta 110 by 2100; that's 5 degrees higher than the current records for those cities. Delhi, India is expected to hit 120 degrees; Belem, Brazil, 121, and Baghdad, 122. The numbers are blistering because of the drying-out effect of a warming world. Most global warming research focuses on average daily temperatures instead of these extremes, which cause greater damage. "Extreme temperature puts a huge demand on the body, especially anyone with heart problems." And it's not just at the end of the century. By 2050, heat waves will be 3 to 5 degrees hotter than now and probably be longer-lasting. In the 1990s, southern France's extreme heat wave peaked at 104 degrees; in comparison, in the 1950s, the worst heat wave peaked around 91 degrees.

AUSTRALIA is in for a tenfold increase in heat waves as climate change sends the mercury soaring. The surge in heat waves is predicted to hit from 2010. A report by the nation's top scientists has found exceptionally hot years - which used to occur once every 22 years - will occur every one or two years. Under the worst case scenario, every year would be exceptionally hot. The report makes alarming reading. "Parts of these high-level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report." Droughts will occur twice as often and cover twice the area due to climate change. The proportion of the country having an exceptionally hot year will increase from just under 5% each year, to as high as 95%. Rainfall is predicted to decline, although the trend is less marked than for temperatures, and some regions will be much harder hit than others. Southern Australia, Victoria and Tasmania are tipped to dry out most rapidly. Rainfall has been declining since the 1950s - and about half that decrease was due to climate change.

The risk of extinction for many species may have been seriously underestimated, according to new research. Current methods used to assess species on the brink overlook some key factors. These include the ratio of males to females in a population, which can have a profound influence on survival. For some species, the risk could be a hundred times greater than previously thought.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
BIOFUELS have forced global food prices up by 75% – far more than previously estimated – according to a confidential World Bank report. The figure contradicts US Government estimates that plant-derived fuels have contributed less than 3% to food-price increases. Rising food prices have pushed 100 million people worldwide below the poverty line. Mr Bush has linked higher food prices to higher demand from India and China, but the World Bank study said: "Rapid income growth in developing countries has not led to large increases in global grain consumption and was not a major factor responsible for the large price increases. Even successive droughts in Australia have had a marginal impact." Instead, the report said the EU and US drive for biofuels has had the biggest impact on food supply and prices. "Without the increase in biofuels, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably and price increases due to other factors would have been moderate."

IRAQ - After struggling through five years of war, Iraq is facing an acute drought, which has slashed agricultural production and threatens to decimate livestock.

STRAWBERRIES - FINLAND - On Wednesday, tens of thousands of kilograms of ripe and unripe strawberries were destroyed in Suonenjoki, central Finland, when an UNUSUALLY fierce hail storm pummelled fields.

CANTELOPES - U.S. - Delays and shortages should continue to limit cantaloupe availability, possibly through July, grower-shippers said. Cold, windy weather that affected pollination and plants’ first bloom, and later scorching heat that hurt vines and left fruit sunburned, reduced the first half of the Bakersfield-California area crop by 30-40%. A week of high temperatures in Arizona “pretty much wiped out” late shipments from there, putting additional upward pressure on markets.

SOD - Wisconsin - Between the winter's record-breaking snowfall and June's record-breaking rainfall, sod farmers in the state's southeast region are worried about meeting crop demands this year. And with such high prices for commodities, input costs have some farmers facing substantial losses. "If we keep getting this kind of weather, we're in trouble." A preliminary estimate by Wisconsin Emergency Management for total agriculture damage topped $146 million in seven counties, although 22 counties have reported losses. Sod grows for an average of 18 months before it can be sold.

U.S. - Global warming will bring more drought to the US within the next 50 years, leading to crop disruptions that fuel food inflation.

CHINA - Add locusts to China's list of calamities - First there was the freak snowstorm in February. Then the Sichuan earthquake, widespread flooding and an algae bloom that is tarnishing the Olympic sailing venue.

AUSTRALIA - The Australian state of New South Wales is facing both a major drought and a locust invasion that could devastate food supplies. And consumers are facing the prospect of further price hikes, with a failure of winter crops likely to increase the cost of food. June was a "horror" month for the south-western region, where just 10mm of rain fell in some parts. Dam levels also were very low in crop-producing areas, particularly in the Snowy Mountains and the central west of the state, squeezing irrigation supplies. A locust plague devastated the state in 2005, wreaking $1 billion in damage to crops.

Global Inflationary Pressures: No End in Sight - Worldwide, prices of commodities like crude oil, wheat and rice have skyrocketed in the last year or so. Policymakers have been finding themselves especially helpless in the present situation due to the "global" nature of the current inflation. Inflationary pressures, coming at a time when there are palpable signs of economic slowdown, have been spooking the global governments, policymakers, financial authorities and marketmen alike.

HEALTH THREATS -
Twnety-one homeless people die after bird flu vaccine trial in Poland - Three Polish doctors and six nurses are facing criminal prosecution after a number of homeless people died following medical trials for a vaccine to the H5N1 bird-flu virus. The medical staff, from the northern town of Grudziadz, are being investigated over medical trials on as many as 350 homeless and poor people last year, which prosecutors say involved an untried vaccine to the highly-contagious virus. Authorities claim that the alleged victims received £1-2 to be tested with what they thought was a conventional flu vaccine but, according to investigators, was actually an anti bird-flu drug. The news of the investigation will come as another blow to the reputation of Poland's beleaguered and poverty-stricken national health service. In 2002, a number of ambulance medics were found guilty of killing their patients for commissions from funeral companies.

Saturday, July 5, 2008 -

This morning there has been a 7.7 quake in the SEA OF OKHOTSK. The epicentre of the quake, at a depth of 605 kilometres, was said to be 384 kilometres (239 miles) west-northwest of the Russian far eastern city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, about 1410 north-northeast of Tokyo. Tremors of up to 4.0 on the Richter scale were felt in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, forcing people to briefly leave their homes, but no damgaes or injuries were reported.

Thursday, July 3, 2008 -

There will be no update on Friday, July 4th - Happy Independence Day!

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Be open to your dreams, people. Embrace that distant shore.
Because our mortal journey is over all too soon.
David Assael

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.2 quake SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
and a 5.6 quake in the TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/2/08 -
5.0 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

CHINA - Expected heavy rain and the risk of aftershocks mean lakes created in southwestern China after May's massive earthquake are still at risk of flooding, despite preventative work. Landslides after the 7.9 magnitude quake, which killed about 70,000 people, created 35 so-called "quake lakes", the majority in the hard hit province of Sichuan. Though work to drain the lakes has largely been successful, there is still a threat to hundreds of thousands of people living downstream. "Although disaster relief efforts have achieved a major initial victory, the flood situation in the disaster area is much more severe than in previous years. Rainfall is expected to be much higher than in previous years during the flood season, and there may be large floods...The quake lakes which are no longer in danger have yet to go through the experience of large floods. Heavy rain and aftershocks may induce rockslides that lead to more quake lakes."

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
UNITED KINGDOM - Newquay's famous big wave spot, the Cribbar, roared to life Wednesday as a giant swell hit the Cornish coastline. The waves towered up to three times their size at about 18ft on the biggest waves. It is HIGHLY UNUSUAL to get a swell big enough to spark the Cribbar into life at this time of year which is generally associated with calm sea conditions.

ILLINOIS - Warning issued for Chicago beaches - potential for flash flooding along the Lake Michigan Shore. The city Office of Emergency Management and Communications has been in contact with the National Weather Services regarding a special marine seiche warning and the possibility of a rapid two-foot rise in lake levels. Residents are asked to stay away from beaches, the lakefront and marina areas, and residents of those areas are warned to stay away from the edge of the water. Evacuation of docks, piers and breakwalls is also advised. According to the Weather Service, a drop of two feet in water levels has been reported at St. Joseph, Michigan, indicating that a seiche is in progress across southern Lake Michigan. A seiche is described as a "standing wave" in an enclosed body of water such as lakes, reservoirs and bays. "A rapid 2-foot drop of Lake Michigan water levels on the east side of Lake Michigan is evidence that a 2-foot rise or better is possible at the Chicago beaches. A fluctuation of water levels at these beaches will continue through the evening [Wednesday]." The warning said this is a "very dangerous event for waders" as water levels may fluctuate rapidly, "taking unsuspecting waders out to more open waters."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BERTHA was 1532 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical storm BORIS was 1127 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression DOUGLAS was 165 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Boris became a hurricane again in Pacific - Boris gained hurricane strength again early Wednesday as it continued to churn far out in the Pacific, west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Boris had maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. But it weakened and dropped below hurricane strength later in the day. Boris also briefly became a hurricane Tuesday, before its winds fell to about 70 mph.
As Boris winds down in the open waters of the Pacific, another tropical storm – the third in a week – has been named in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Douglas formed Wednesday off the coast of Mexico [now it is a tropical depression] and packed sustained winds of 40 mph. It is the fourth named storm in the eastern Pacific this season. Its predecessor, Boris, became the season's first hurricane. So far, only Tropical Storm Alma, which formed in late May and soaked Central America in the first days of June, has affected people on land. Boris, headed in the general direction of Hawaii, is expected to dissipate before reaching land. Tropical Storm Douglas could produce heavy rains along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, between Cardenas and Puerto Vallarta.

Tropical wave spawns RARE 'Cape Verde' storm in the Atlantic - A strong tropical wave [now a tropical storm] just off the west coast of Africa has the potential to become a RARE July "Cape Verde" storm, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday. It has now become Tropical Storm Bertha and marks THE EARLIEST ON RECORD THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED THIS FAR EAST.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Torrential rains have hit about half of China since Tuesday, leaving one dead, four injured and nearly 400,000 affected. The rain also caused blocked traffic in cities, delayed flights, destroyed homes, flooded farmland and threatened flooding in river areas, mainly south of the Yangtze River. The casualties were reported in Shanghai, where a two-story building collapsed on Wednesday afternoon at a construction site and five construction workers were buried in debris. The atrocious weather also caused an hour-long power cut on the railway linking Shanghai and neighboring Hangzhou, leaving trains from Shanghai railway station delayed. Seven counties and cities in the central Hubei Province reported more than 395,900 people affected and 35,580 hectares of crops damaged. The rainfall in Zhongxiang, Jingshan, Huangpi, Macheng, Hong'an, Xiaochang, Dawu all exceeded 100 millimeters with the maximum at 247 millimeters. Macheng City, the worst-stricken area, received an average of 164 millimeters of rain in five hours on Wednesday, THE MOST IN 17 YEARS. More rain was forecast for the next two days.

INDIA - Flooding and house collapses caused by heavy rains have killed at least 11 people in northern India over the past two days. The eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh state, where all the deaths took place, have been lashed by heavy rains since Monday and all major rivers in the region have flooded over.

WASHINGTON - Weather conditions created a FREAK 'circumhorizontal arc' over Port Townsend Bay - A cloud formation over Port Townsend Bay featured a "circumhorizontal arc" for about an hour around noon Wednesday, June 25. A cluster of five or six individual clouds made up the horizontal display that drew hundreds of people out of downtown Port Townsend buildings to look. One person described it like a scene from the motion picture "Close Encounters of the Third Kind," with people drawn outside to stare at the sky. It's not a rainbow in the normal sense - it is caused by light passing through high-altitude cirrus clouds. The phenomenon occurs only when the sun is high in the sky, and the hexagonal ice crystals that make up cirrus clouds must be shaped like thick plates with their faces parallel to the ground. If a cirrus's crystals are aligned just right, the whole cloud lights up in a spectrum of colors. (photos)

COLD -
NORTH CAROLINA - Rock Hill hit a RECORD-LOW 56 degrees Wednesday morning, breaking the Charlotte region low set in 1885. The temperature at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport was also 56 early that morning, BREAKING THE RECORD for July 2 of 58. The normal low for this time of year is 70.
The National Weather Service recorded a low of 50 degrees at the Asheville Regional Airport after a high of 80 on Monday. The low was 11 degrees below normal and BEAT THE OLD RECORD LOW of 51 set in 1984. The cool spell is being caused by a cold front that pushed as far south as the Florida panhandle before becoming stationary. The normal high for the date is 82, while the normal low is 61.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Most of Big Sur evacuated after wildfire spreads - Authorities ordered the remaining residents of this scenic coastal community to leave Wednesday because an out-of-control wildfire, one of hundreds in California, had jumped a fire line and was threatening more homes. Flames raged in the hills above and ash fell from orange skies as evacuees in packed cars streamed north along Highway 1, the only major road out of Big Sur. "The fire is just a big raging animal right now." The blaze near Big Sur is one of more than 1,100 wildfires, mostly ignited by lightning, that have scorched more than 770 square miles and destroyed 64 homes and buildings across northern and central California since June 20. The new evacuation notice means that all of the roughly 850 residents who live along the Big Sur coast from Andrew Molera State Park to Limekiln State Park have been ordered to leave. About 150,000 Southern California Edison customers in Goleta and Santa Barbara were without electricity shortly after 7 p.m. when thick smoke forced the shutdown of power transmission lines. Federal fire managers predict an increase in severe wildfire activity in Northern California through October because of the UNUSUALLY HOT, DRY WEATHER and scant rain.
Firefighters near Crown King, Arizona, were hacking away at brush and trees and burning back land near the town on Wednesday to try to quell a blaze that had burned nearly 12 square miles of land.
A wildfire threatened 15 homes and a casino near Okanogan, Washington, and some residents have been evacuated. The blaze covered 1,500 acres — just over 2 square miles.
WASHINGTON - Like the Santa Ana winds notorious for fanning wildfires in California, Western Washington's east wind has been the missing ingredient for substantially destructive Western Washington wildfires in recent years. Although it's happened only once in recorded history, it has nearly been repeated in recent years during wildfires in Carnation in 2003 and SeaTac in 2006 and 2007. Officals this season fear a repeat of the infamous Yacult Burn of 1901, the worst forest fire in state history, when a wind from Eastern Washington fanned the flames in a fire so big that smoke blotted out the sun in Portland and Seattle. "When people hear of an east wind it should mean something to them." The winds blow from Eastern Washington through the mountain passes, potentially fanning wildfires there in a westerly direction toward residential areas. Firefighters here don't want to face a doomsday situation like that firefighters in California now experience, forced to pick their battles, allowing some property to burn while saving others.

The oil giant ExxonMobil has admitted that its support for lobby groups that question the science of climate change may have hindered action to tackle global warming. In its corporate citizenship report ExxonMobil says it intends to cut funds to several groups that "divert attention" from the need to find new sources of clean energy. Green campaigners accuse the company of funding a "climate denial industry" over the last decade, with $23m (£11.5m) handed over to groups that play down the risks of burning fossil fuels.
Exxon investors rejected green initiatives - an effort to foist green initiatives on ExxonMobil failed to capture wholehearted support from shareholders. Protesters wielded banners outside the meeting in Dallas with slogans such as "People before profits" and "Oil: the new Black Death". Arguing that renewables lacked technological scale, Exxon said "meaningful environmental improvements" would come from more efficient ways of delivering existing fuels. The remarks failed to satisfy environmentalists. One accused Exxon's directors of leaving their responsibilities at the door. "Exxon is acting like a dinosaur in not adapting ... ExxonMobil-asaurus will disappear." Exxon's assumptions of future energy consumption were questioned by the Rockefellers, who suggested projected growth in demand from developing countries could not materialise if those nations faced catastrophes from global warming.

Will global warming end in catastrophe or anticlimax? The more scientists study climate, the less they know. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hammered out its last assessment in 2001, scientists pulled together the latest research and made their best estimate of how much the Earth's atmosphere would warm during the next century. There was a lot they didn't know, but they were confident they'd be able to plug the gaps in time for the next report, due out in 2007. When they explored the fundamental physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, though, they found something unexpected: the way the atmosphere - and, in particular, clouds - respond to increasing levels of carbon is far more complex and difficult to predict than they had expected. "We thought we'd reduce the uncertainty, but that hasn't happened. As we delve further and further into the science and [gain] a better understanding of the true complexity [of the atmosphere], the uncertainties have gotten deeper." This doesn't mean, of course, that the world isn't warming. Only the biased or the deluded deny that temperatures have risen. The big question that scientists have struggled with is how much warming will occur over the next century? With so much still unknown in the climate equation, there's no way of telling whether warnings of catastrophe are overblown or if things are even more dire than we thought. "Whether or not we're converging on the truth, we don't know." Scientists are optimistic that they'll eventually crack the cloud problem, but "it may take seven years."

Wednesday, July 2, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Victory attained by violence is tantamount to a defeat, for it is momentary.
Mahatma Gandhi

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/1/08 -
5.0 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS
5.6 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS
5.5 CENTRAL PERU

LEBANON's National Council for Scientific Research denied on Monday Israeli reports that a large-scale earthquake could soon rock Lebanon and parts of the Jewish state, saying that it was "impossible" to predict such seismic activity. "No new evidence suggests an impending large-scale earthquake in Lebanon, as was reported by media outlets relying on sources in Israel - in any case, attempting to predict a seismic shock is almost impossible."

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Llaima volcano, one of South America's most active, is spewing lava in southern Chile, the government said today, ordering an evacuation just two months after the spectacular eruption of the Chaiten volcano further south. Llaima erupted violently on New Year's Day, forcing the temporary evacuation of some tourists and residents from the surrounding Conguillio National Park, and then belched ash and lava in February. Today the government ordered a 15km exclusion zone around the volcano and ordered the evacuation of 30 people in the area around the 3125m-high volcano, which lies about 700km south of Santiago. "There is renewed activity as lava is flowing towards the Calbuco River. (The lava) has reached around 800m to 1000m from the crater...The risk in this case is that there could be abrupt melting of snow because of the lava, which could produce torrents (of water and other material)." The direction of the lava flow places the towns of La Selva and Danubio at most risk, due to the fact that they are located only 10 to 12 kilometers from the crater – which is within the primary emergency radius that has been declared.
The renewed activity comes after Chaiten volcano, 1220km south of Santiago in Chilean Patagonia, started erupting on May 2 for the first time in thousands of years, spewing ash, gas and molten rock. The nearby town of Chaiten has been caked in volcanic ash and the volcano continues to emit hot gas and ash. A 50km radius around that volcano was evacuated, and the area remains off limits to thousands of evacuees. Chile's chain of some 2000 volcanoes is the world's second-largest after Indonesia's. Around 50-60 are recorded to have erupted, while a total of 500 are deemed potentially active.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04E was 246 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical storm BORIS was 998 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

U.S. forecasters are closely tracking 'vigorous' African wave - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center started tracking a tropical wave off Africa Tuesday, the first system of the season showing potential to develop. The wave, a mass of thunderstorms around an area of low pressure, is heading west at 15 to 20 mph. Its winds are just over 25 mph. Forecasters described the wave as "vigorous," and it already has a well-defined counterclockwise spin, a sign it could become better organized as it tracks across the Atlantic Ocean. Between 70 and 80 tropical waves emerge from Africa each season and can become the seeds of hurricanes. Most never develop into tropical storms. Still, the hurricane center has begun running forecast models on the wave. And though early runs can show wide variations, most predict the wave will curve north before reaching the Caribbean Sea. Intensity forecasts vary, with some predicting the wave will become a hurricane within five days. Most project the wave will be no stronger than a tropical storm. It is the only one of five tropical waves now moving across the Atlantic or Caribbean that shows any potential for development. One day into the season's second month is fairly early for a hurricane to develop. Tropical waves tend to develop into storms during the height of the season in August and September, when conditions in the Atlantic are more favorable. Most storms in June and early July develop in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean. However, water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been about 1 degree higher in June than normal. Developing hurricanes feed on warm water.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - The west coast, especially the Konkan-Mumbai-South Gujarat belt, has come in for a battering for the second time this monsoon in a pattern best attributed to a recurrent sea-based phenomenon – a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The west coast and parts of central India are witnessing what looks like a third successive surplus monsoon phase instigated by a RARE third-in-a-row positive IOD event. India Meteorological Department has now put the IOD on the same keel as the Pacific-generated El Nino/La Nina with regard to comparable influence on the monsoon. The IOD event might just help the monsoon deliver more rain than what long-range forecasts appeared to credit it with. A positive IOD occurs when the seesawing sea surface temperatures leaves a warming anomaly in the West Indian Ocean aiding convection and precipitation. In this manner, the monsoon gets an induced southwesterly ‘push’ that is reflected in the overall output over the landmass. It is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL that a third consecutive positive IOD has evolved this year following those in 2006 and 2007. “As far as we know, THERE IS NO SUCH OCCASION IN THE PAST 100 YEARS when we had three consecutive positive IODs.”

CHINA - Landslides have blocked a highway with rubble and isolated 3000 people in a quake-hit town in southwest China.

NEW MEXICO - Repairs were under way Monday at an Elephant Butte Lake marina that was hit by a wind storm. No injuries were reported in the storm that hit about 7:30 p.m. Saturday. The storm tore the wave breakers — a string of huge tires that protect the marina — loose from their anchors. Docks also separated from the anchors that hold them in place. "The marina received quite a bit of damage. We're just putting the marina back together." The storm lasted a few hours and wasn't accompanied by rain. "I HAVEN'T SEEN WINDS LIKE THIS IN THE LAST 15 YEARS. It kind of came straight down the Rio Grande corridor; it wasn't a thunderstorm." At least one boat sank and others were damaged. Weather equipment at the marina recorded wind speeds up to 74 miles per hour before electricity was shut off at the site.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

The Sun turned purple in California last week. The fantastic sight came from the smoke of hundreds of wildfires that broke out in tinder-dry conditions across the state. The tiny bits of soot that filled the air were just the right size to scatter the red colours of sunlight and let through shades of purple. Scotland witnessed its own surreal spectacle on September 26, 1950, when the Sun turned blue. “All over the city people stopped to gaze at the sapphire sphere,” described The Scotsman in Edinburgh. The newspaper’s switchboard was jammed with callers, some of whom thought the end of the world was coming. And later that night the country was treated to the sight of a blue Moon. An RAF jet fighter was sent up to investigate and reported that the Sun was a vivid blue up to a few miles high, where a layer of smoky brown haze was hanging. Above that the Sun looked normal. The smoke had come from massive wildfires in Alberta that turned the Sun purple or orange across much of North America. The smoke was then blown across the Atlantic. Wildfires are not that unusual, so why is the proverbial Blue Moon, or Blue Sun, not seen more often? The smoke particles from the fires have to be the same specific size and that is QUITE RARE.

CALIFORNIA - Drought-ravaged pastureland is forcing Central California ranchers to sell cattle and sheep herds. Rangelands have turned brown and springs are drying up.

Penguin populations have plummeted at a key breeding colony in Argentina, mirroring declines in many species of the marine flightless birds due to climate change, pollution and other factors, a study shows.

HEALTH THREATS -
Most sunscreen products are inadequate - The Environmental Working Group has found out that four out of five brand-name sunscreens are not adequate for consumers, after testing about 1000 products. They have either failed to adequately protect consumers or contain chemicals that may pose health hazards. The worst faring were sunscreen products with an SPF rating of 15 or higher. Around 85% of them included ingredients which are not tested for safety or are already considered health risks, or simply did not shield UV rays appropriately. What most people don't know is that most of these substances actually break down when exposed to sunlight, and their efficiency disappears after a short time.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Seize the moment of excited curiosity on any subject to solve your doubts;
for if you let it pass, the desire may never return, and you may remain in ignorance.
William Wirt

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
6/30/08 -
6.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 WEST CHILE RISE

ISRAEL - Israeli authorities warn hospitals to prepare for earthquake - A strong earthquake could soon rock Lebanon and parts of Israel, authorities said on Monday, urging health officials in northern Israel to make preparations for such an event. "The probability of an earthquake of a magnitude of up to six on the Richter scale, originating in Lebanon and being felt in Israel has increased." Since February, ABNORMAL seismic activity has been noted in southern Lebanon, which suffered some 500 minor earthquakes in a three-month period. "In May, the tremors have become more intense and were felt in northern Israel. Should an earthquake of such magnitude hit northern Israel it may cause substantial infrastructural damage in the area." Some seismological experts point out quakes historically have rocked the region every eight decades, and the last one was just about 81 years ago. About 300 people were killed in Jerusalem and nearby Jericho by the July 11, 1927 temblor. A similar quake measuring seven on the Richter scale and with an epicentre in the Hula Valley, in what today is northern Israel, devastated the town of Safed and killed some 4,000 people in 1837.

CHINA - The major earthquake that devastated China last month was a RARE type, something of a seismological oddity, seismologists report in a new analysis. The faults that caused the temblor RARELY rumble. The earthquake was also a complete surprise to scientists. MIT seismologists who had been operating an array of 25 seismograph stations in the region for more than a year had found no hints that a large temblor might hit. "Nobody was thinking there would be a major seismological event. This earthquake was quite UNUSUAL." The region is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL GEOGRAPHICALLY, because of the very steep slopes at the boundary between the Sichuan Basin to the east and the Tibetan Plateau to the west. The elevation rises by more than two miles (about 3.5 kilometers) in a span of just 30 miles (50 kilometers). The area is at the boundary between the Indian and Asian tectonic plates, which are engaged in an ongoing collision that has created the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. In the area where the earthquake occurred, the flow of the crust is obstructed by a major obstacle, the Sichuan Basin. "The crust and mantle beneath the basin appears to form a hard, cold knot," which forces the flow to "wrap around the knot." The huge elevation differences between the surface of the plateau and the Sichuan Basin provided the underlying stress that led to the quake. Similar events in the area occur only once in every 2,000 to 10,000 years on average, the researchers say, though they caution that because earthquakes can sometimes occur in clusters, residents and officials should still be wary of another possible large-scale earthquake.

JAPAN - Massive landslides triggered by the Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake caused a tsunami-like wave that hit the wall of the Aratozawa Dam in Kurihara, Miyagi Prefecture, raising the water level by about three meters, according to researchers. The massive quake and its aftershocks caused landslides in the upper reaches of the dam, dislodging earth that fell into the dam, which can hold up to 135.1 million tons of water. Experts said that if a larger amount of earth and rocks had fallen into the water, the dam could have been breached, causing much more serious damage to the lower reaches of the dam. About 70 million cubic meters of dirt - enough to fill Tokyo Dome 56 times - was dislodged from mountains around the dam. Although most of the earth did not fall into the dam, about 1.5 million cubic meters of earth, or about 2 percent of the total amount, did, raising the level of the water surface. When the quake hit the area, the water level was 10.9 meters below the top of the dam wall, so it was not breached. Landslides frequently occur around Mt. Kurikoma. The dam wall was built to avoid areas considered vulnerable to landslides, however it had not been anticipated that a landslide would cause the water level to rise so much.

INDONESIA - The undersea earthquakes that shook the islands of Andaman and Nicobar in the last three days are due to a 'settling process' of the fault plates and need not cause any major worries, say experts. Since April this year, the islands have experienced nearly 17 earthquakes, with a large number of them in June alone. The islands have been rattled by nearly 13 earthquakes since Friday evening when a strong temblor measuring 6.6, 120 km of Port Blair shook the already ravaged island, which has been hit by earthquakes since the destructive tsunami crashed into the Indian Coast on December 26, 2004. "These earthquakes are quite common. A settling process is happening and energy is being released from one plate, which is normal." The massive 9.1 magnitude quake that caused the tsunami created a rupture in the Indian plate for nearly 1,200 km. Inhabitants of the islands are used to a large number of quakes. The islands have been hit by huge temblors ever since 1847 when a quake of magnitude 7.3 struck. There are also reports of a minor tsunami having hit the islands following a quake of 7.9 on the Richter scale on December 31, 1881.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane BORIS was 951 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (The first hurricane of the 2008 season in the east Pacific basin.)
Tropical depression CRISTINA was 1398 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Another low pressure system in the Pacific has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it tracks in a general NW direction paralleling the coast of Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IVORY COAST - A landslide triggered by heavy rains in the Ivory Coast has killed at least seven people as their wooden homes were washed away in an Abidjan shantytown. The west African nation's rainy season had been under way for several weeks already.