Disaster details for July & August 2008

Thursday, August 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
No race can prosper till it learns that there is as much dignity
in tilling a field as in writing a poem.
Booker T. Washington

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/20/08 -
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 62 nmi N of Melbourne, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 196 nmi SE of Hong Kong.

Rains from Typhoon Nuri triggered a series of landslides and floods in the northern Philippines, killing seven people. Nuri is now headed for the Chinese coast east of Hong Kong.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Fay has flooded hundreds of homes in central Florida. Parts of Brevard have seen 18-to-24 inches of rain and could see three to four more inches.
Tropical Storm Fay is continuing northwards, with northern Florida and much of Georgia set for a drenching, the US National Hurricane Center says. Fay is following an erratic path, hugging the Florida coastline, instead of heading out over the ocean. Forecasters say this makes it less likely that Fay will strengthen to a hurricane. A forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicted that the storm's path would take it through Alabama over the weekend.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OKLAHOMA - Oklahoma City received 4.16 inches of rain, pushing the rainfall amount for August to 9.48 inches. That BROKE A RECORD SET BACK IN 1906 of 8.34 inches.

TEXAS - With drains clogged with two days of RECORD-SETTING RAIN, Waco was under a flash-flood watch.

UNITED KINGDOM - Weather forecasters warn of WETTEST AUGUST FOR 100 YEARS. They could be heading for one of their worst summers on record.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Heavy smoke from wildfires in Idaho, Oregon and as far away as California choked Montana valleys Tuesday.

CANADA - In southern Saskatchewan on Tuesday, heat affected most of the province. 13 different communities SET WEATHER RECORDS thanks to the extreme heat which is rather ODD for this time of the year. "We can get some hot weather in August but generally it occurs a little bit earlier in the month, so a little bit UNUSUAL for this late". Val Marie hit 38.7 degrees which was the hottest spot in Canada.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There is no calamity greater than lavish desires.
There is no greater guilt than discontentment.
And there is no greater disaster than greed.
Lao-tzu

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/19/08 -
5.3 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
6.1 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.3 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION

A 5.3-magnitude earthquake hit China's border with Myanmar yesterday, destroying homes and forcing more than 1000 people to evacuate. The latest tremor occurred just one day after China marked 100 days since the country's southwest Sichuan province was hit by the massive earthquake.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - The Bezymianny Volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula has erupted, but poses no danger for local settlements.

BANGLADESH - A mud volcano on Manaung Island in Arakan State erupted on 7 August and destroyed a few acres of paddy farms. The mouth of the volcano spewed molten material up to 150 feet into the sky, inundating several farms located nearby. 1.35 acres of paddy fields were damaged by the eruption. The volcano erupted twice in one day, first at 7 am and again later in the evening. The mud volcano is situated near Zi Chaung Village in Manaung Township, and locals refer to it as "Ngar Byint". The mud volcano typically erupts every rainy season. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - The speed at which the climate is changing has been significantly underestimated, with thousands of Australian homes potentially at risk from rising sea levels. More than 80 per cent of Australians live in the coastal zone, with about 700,000 homes located within 3km of the coast and less than six metres above sea level. Ports, harbours and airports situated near the ocean are also vulnerable to the immediate effects of climate change. "There are vulnerabilities all around the Australian coastline." The scientific community has underestimated the speed at which the climate is changing and there could be devastating effects on many low-lying areas in coastal Australia within the next century. "The pressing reality of climate change is upon us and all the evidence points to coastlines being the most vulnerable." It is time for the government to act "decisively and without hesitation" on the "toughest issue facing our generation".

BRITAIN - Monster waves smash cars - Two cars were written-off and up to 20 others damaged when huge waves smashed into a seafront car park. The vehicles were left overnight in the car park at Cheyne Beach in Ilfracombe, Devon. But a heavy spring high tide and fierce storms brought ”monster” waves crashing over a sea barrier on Monday night. The force of the water was so strong several cars smashed into each other - causing at least two to flip over onto their sides. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 8 nmi N of Melbourne, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 152 nmi N of Baguio City, Philippines.

Fay looks like it could be a 'boomerang storm' - Tropical Storm Fay moved just off the east coast of Florida early today after spawning at least seven tornadoes that ripped across sections of the state. The storm is expected to make a small loop into the Atlantic before paying a return visit to Florida, likely making landfall somewhere in the Jacksonville or St. Augustine area. A hurricane watch has been issued for Florida's east coast, from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound. Fay weakened throughout the evening as its maximum sustained winds dropped to near 50 mph (85 km/hr), with higher gusts. Fay is likely to remain near or over the northeast or east-central Florida coast through Thursday. Fay buffeted Lake Okeechobee with high winds Tuesday afternoon as it moved north and northeast through Florida, leaving a trail of flooding, broken trees and power outages. Fay is expected to produce rainfall amounts of five to 10 inches over east-central and northeastern Florida, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches. Three to five inches of rain were possible in the northwestern Bahamas. Fay's landfall at Cape Romano south of Marco Island was the third for the storm, which came ashore in western Cuba on Sunday night and then again over Key West on Monday afternoon. (photos)
Contrary to what happens to most tropical cyclones that spend hours over land, Fay saw its winds increase as it inched slowly from Southwest Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. Its winds were about 60 mph when it reached land before dawn and had climbed to 65 mph by midafternoon. The storm's internal pressure, another measure of intensity, continued to drop after the storm had spent roughly six hours over land, a RARE event. Also, the storm's rain bands remained well organized, and Fay could maintain its tropical storm strength through its entire crossing of the state. Some of Fay's heaviest rains fell near the northwest edge of Lake Okeechobee and the Palm Beach County coast, where radar estimates show more than 12 inches.

Typhoon Nuri slammed into the northern Philippines early Wednesday, triggering heavy rain and warnings of possible storm surges. Nuri is moving west northwest towards Hong Kong and continued to intensify as it maintained its course towards south China.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEPAL - 50,000 people have been forced to flee after monsoon rains washed away a dam in southern Nepal. Five villages have been flooded and the residents have been evacuated. "We think people may have been killed but we have not been able to verify the number."

IRELAND - it may not yet be the wettest summer ever — but it’s certainly THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD and that’s with 12 days still to go. What was UNUSUAL about this August? One distinctive feature was the appearance of the jetstream further south than usual and cutting across the British Isles, and there are also theories that rainy summers in Europe could be linked to La Nina, an anomalous cooling of the waters in the central Equatorial Pacific. Floods described as 1 in 100 year events are actually coming along much more frequently. “Newcastle has had three 1 in 100 year events in the last eight years...We are getting more violent peaks and troughs in our weather and this is happening in June, July and August.”
After seeing their homes destroyed by a deluge of rain over the weekend, communities across the country are now facing the prospect of having no drinking water. Among the worst hit by the floods have been farmers, who have seen the freak weather cause havoc to the country's grain harvest.
IRELAND will have monsoon weather conditions as regularly as every five years, a leading geography expert has predicted. The freak downpours experienced in recent weeks will not be considered exceptional in the years to come. But, ironically, water shortages and droughts are likely to become a common experience also, as the country experiences extremes of heat as well as rain over the coming years. Local authorities across the country have used phrases like "COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED" and "UNPRECEDENTED" to describe the washout summer. And the floods that have devastated almost every part of the country over the past two weeks are only "a microcosm" for the future. Instead of the one-in-50-year storms that geographical experts anticipate for Ireland at the moment, torrential rain will come as regularly as every five years, by the end of 2030. "Floods that we take as a one-in-50-year occurrence right now, we expect to occur every five to 10 years by the middle of the century." "What's happening at the moment is that a whole set of depressions were queuing up off the Irish coast for weeks. This was brought about because sea surface temperatures warmed up the seas and caused increased evaporation into the atmosphere. And as a result, when all this water hits the warm land it falls. In terms of climate change a lot of this is about adapting to the changes. Even if we cap greenhouse gases at their present position there will still be a certain level of climate change."

JAPAN - A climber and a guide are missing following a landslide on Mt. Shirouma in the Northern Japanese Alps on Tuesday. The landslide reportedly took place near the Daisekkei valley on the Hakubamura side of the 2,932-meter peak. A two-meter thick chunk of earth measuring 30 meters by 70 meters collapsed close to the Nebukabira area in the upper region of the valley. The police said they were unable to make contact with two of the eight people scheduled to stay in a lodge close to the summit. Members of the unit who searched for the missing climbers reportedly found the mountain guide's rucksack. The rucksack contained unopened boxed lunches. The police believe the missing guide and climber might have been hit by the landslide and were working to confirm this.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
All things considered, worse things have happened to better people.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/18/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
There has been an odd bunch of small quakes in the southeastern U.S. lately - on both sides of Tennessee. Just this week a geological engineer predicted that a 5.9 quake on the East Tennessee fault could produce economic damages totaling $45 billion in Kentucky, and similar totals in surrounding cities and states.

PHILIPPINES - After the strongest earthquake to strike Bicol occured on Friday, three more mild tremors were felt on Sunday, and yet another aftershock (5.2) woke up Bicolanos before sunrise yesterday – a series of aftershocks that is already gripping people in fear as it forced disaster control authorities here to make public announcements to allay worries. The latest shake was still an aftershock of the Friday tremor that rocked Bicol up to intensity VI, the highest to hit this area. More than 500 aftershocks were detected since Friday although only six were felt by the residents. “Usually, aftershocks last one to two weeks from the main event.” Hundreds were confirmed hurt when they panicked during Sunday’s strong tremor.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
MINNESOTA - 8/14/08 - People living in the Longfellow neighborhood in Minneapolis were jolted awake in the middle of the night Thursday by a big boom. However, police said they aren’t sure what caused the explosion. This is the second time in a week an unexplained explosion has been heard. "I heard an explosion. It sounded kind of loud and it reverberated," said a man who was jolted awake by the sound. He thought it was coming from Longfellow Park and investigated. "It was rather scary. I walked outside, meandered down half asleep and didn't see anything." Blocks away others heard it too. Police took calls stretching a 14-block radius from the 3000 block of Lake Street to 44th Street. "I knew it wasn't a gunshot, so it had to be a transformer." But Xcel Energy said a transformer didn’t blow and said, "nothing in our reports indicates an explosion from our equipment." Police said they don’t believe the explosions are terroristic or connected to the upcoming Republican National Convention. While authorities aren't saying much about the two explosions, reports are calling them issues of Homeland Security.
Reports of unexplained explosions in Minneapolis actually started years ago. Residents said another explosion was heard in a 14 block area in south Minneapolis from Lake Street to 44th Street East. (video of residents discussing the startling noises)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 72 nmi W of Miami, Florida.
Typhoon NURI was 312 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

Tropical Storm Fay moved ashore over southwest Florida on Tuesday, without strengthening into a hurricane, bringing heavy rains to the south of the peninsula. While not particularly ferocious, the weather system knocked down trees, signs and awnings in the low-lying island chain of the Florida Keys and also uprooted some trees in the Miami area. The storm killed more than 50 people in the Caribbean, most of them in Haiti when a crowded bus tried to cross a rain-swollen river and was carried away by the current. The hurricane center forecast that a weakening Fay would track in a northeasterly direction and briefly reemerge over the Atlantic before curving back into the coast of northeast Florida.

Typhoon Nuri is on track to make landfall over the Philippines northern provinces within the next 24 hours. Nuri is packing winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) and gusts of up to 93 miles (150 kilometers) per hour. It is moving quickly toward the north of main Luzon island. Nuri is on a path to slam ashore near northeastern Cagayan province, where a storm alert has been raised to warn fishermen to stay out of the sea. The eye of the typhoon is expected to move across the Calayan group of islands and Ilocos Norte province on Wednesday, before heading across the South China Sea toward Guangdong, China.

Researchers say they have begun to unravel one key to how hurricanes are born. The finding could help meteorologists predict exactly where a storm is likely to form and which of the many small disturbances will grow into potentially deadly hurricanes. "We've uncovered a key ingredient in the birth of hurricanes. We call it a marsupial pouch, because it's like a mother kangaroo's pouch that provides a nurturing environment for the storm and gets it to the point where it gains enough strength to jump out of the pouch." The pouch is a protected region that forms within a developing tropical wave over the open ocean where the wind speed around the pouch closely matches the speed of the tropical wave. This allows the rotation in the lower atmosphere to intensify. This haven for storm development is needed, because conditions in the tropical atmosphere are usually hostile to storm formation. In fact, only about 10% of all Atlantic disturbances with the potential to spawn hurricanes actually grow into storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - A handful of hikers remained unaccounted for after flooding struck a tiny village near the Grand Canyon rim. The search was to resume Tuesday for about 11 people missing near the Havasupai Tribe's village of Supai. It's possible those people might have already left, but authorities would assume they were still in the canyon until that could be determined. Supai and the surrounding area got soaked over the weekend as thunderstorms dumped 3 to 6 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in northern Arizona and about 2 inches more on Sunday. Over the weekend, dozens of tourists were stranded as rushing water swept away rafts, backpacks, food and other supplies. Some hiking trails and footbridges were washed out and trees were uprooted.

BANGLADESH - Heavy rains Monday knocked down mud walls and triggered landslides that buried thatched huts in southeastern Bangladesh and killed 14 people in Chittagong.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - storms which have lashed New Zealand with snow and ice over the past week are set to continue, with more snow forecast. "Since mid-July the Tasman Sea has been a breeding ground for low-pressure systems." The number of large lows that have made their way into the New Zealand region is UNUSUAL.
Three UNUSUAL weather events have combined to create a "polar outbreak" bringing some of New Zealand's HEAVIEST SNOW IN YEARS. 3.5 metres of snow pack has been recorded at Whakapapa ski field on Mt Ruapehu - which was the deepest snowfall there since 1992. Staff at Whakapapa and Turoa ski-fields have reported on their website that they are "snowed under" with work, with patrollers on "the immense task of avalanche control whilst everyone else will be digging". The snow was caused by air from the Southern Ocean moving onto the Tasman Sea before being diverted onto the western parts of the central plateau. Snowfalls have been heavy for three reasons: The Tasman Sea had become a "breeding ground" for low-pressure systems since mid July. The lows had often moved slowly, allowing more time for snow or rain to fall. Cold air from the Southern Ocean had been drawn north and then over New Zealand, tipping the balance toward snow and away from rain.

OREGON - Winter-like storm expected - The rain totals expected to accompany a winter-like storm headed toward the mid-valley on Tuesday could be “pretty impressive.” This type of storm is relatively RARE this time of year. On the satellite and weather maps it looks like a legitimate winter storm. Over the past three days, the mid-valley has experienced “an interesting sequence of three extreme weather events". There was a significant heat wave that set a number of records, and then the temperature dropped nearly 20 degrees. And now the rain is here.
WASHINGTON - Today’s big storm will make it feel like late fall. It is somewhat UNUSUAL to get a storm this intense to drop this far south in summertime. This is more like a late fall or early winter storm.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AFRICA - Maasai 'can fight climate change'- Africa should make more use of the skills of its nomadic peoples to help combat the challenges of climate change. Pastoral communities such as the Maasai in Kenya and Tanzania could pass on survival skills, says a new report. The Maasai have learnt over generations how to farm in deserts and scrublands. Instead of being respected, though, the pastoralists have been marginalised politically, their way of life deemed out-dated and irrelevant. There are between 500,000 and one million Maasai in Africa, who mostly live in northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Pastoralists had been adapting to changes in climate for millennia, and these skills could help them cope with the continent's increasingly hot weather. "However, their adaptability cannot be realised without government support and investment." The UN climate panel predicts Africa will be hit hard by climate change in the next century, with tens of millions facing food and water shortages as rising temperatures are exacerbated by more droughts, floods and rising sea levels.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Monday, August 18, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Man is the only animal whose desires increase as they are fed;
the only animal that is never satisfied.
Henry George

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/17/08 -
5.3 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - State seismologists started analyzing possible ground deformation in the northwest sector of Mayon Volcano in Albay province in Bicol. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) expects the results to help it determine if it needs to raise the alert level there. Seismic experts from Phivolcs said their findings of ground deformation at the northwest sector will be compared with records of the volcano's activity last week. Mayon had shown activity since last week, when it ejected smoke and ash into the air.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm 13W was 647 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm FAY was 103 nmi SE of Havana, Cuba.

Tropical storm Fay has struck Cuba's south coast with high winds and heavy rains, continuing its deadly trail across the Caribbean. The storm is forecast to strengthen as it moves overland before hitting Florida as a possible hurricane. Western and central areas of Cuba, and the Florida Keys are being evacuated. It earlier passed over Haiti, where a bus has plunged into a swollen river, reportedly killing about 50 people. Fay was expected to reach the Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical Storm Fay prediction models estimate a 6 to 8 foot storm surge tide may coincide with an abnormal high tide after midnight tonight. While the storm may increase to a Category 1 hurricane or higher, the chief concern of emergency officials is the storm surge which could flood homes and impact roadways.

Tropical Storm 13W, as yet unnamed, formed just as Tropical Storm Vongfong died out northeast of Tokyo, which it passed by at midday Saturday. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for 13W to make its way west before curving northwest on Wednesday between Okinawa and Taiwan. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, 13W should be churning 386 miles southwest of Okinawa and 154 southeast of Taipei at 9 p.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center, equal to a Category 4 hurricane. Should 13W become a named storm, it will be called Rusa.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARIZONA - Dam evacuations in Grand Canyon - More than 400 people are being evacuated from a village in the Grand Canyon after an earthen dam burst following a night of heavy rain. Water from the Redlands Dam was causing flooding in Supai, at the bottom of Supai canyon. Dozens of campers have also been airlifted out by the Arizona National Guard and Department of Public Safety. About 16 people in a private boating party were among those who had to be rescued after becoming stranded on a ledge on the Colorado river when their rafts were swept away by flood water. Some hiking trails and footbridges have been washed away and trees uprooted, A flash flood warning was in effect until early evening with more rain threatened.

IRELAND - Extreme weather here to stay, warns climatologist - extreme torrential rain and flash flooding is going to be part of the climate over the coming days and from now on. That was the warning after a weekend that saw yet more parts of the country submerged in several feet of water. Some of the worst-hit parts of the country were in the North, including Belfast, where the city’s new multi-million euro Broadway Underpass was submerged under 20 feet of water. Carlow remained badly flooded last night with more than 100 people evacuated from their apartment block. On Saturday, the torrential rain was blamed for the landslide which pushed debris onto rail lines at Portarlington, derailing the Cork-Dublin train. None of the 310 people onboard were injured. The flooding came just two weeks after Newcastle West in Limerick and parts of north Cork were submerged and just a few days after there was similar havoc in Dublin and other parts of Leinster. “So far this month there has been 16 centimetres of rain, four times the monthly average, and we are only halfway through the month. Indications are that we will have THE WORST MONTH OF ALL TIME, certainly in the east. We are seeing one of the most dismal summers of recent times, a wet summer that has got into a rut since July.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

OREGON - Redmond Airport hit 100 degrees again Sunday after sizzling to 106 degrees Saturday afternoon, SMASHING THE OLD AUGUST 16 MARK of 103, set 41 years earlier, in 1967. The airport reached 100 by 1 p.m. Saturday and didn't drop below the century mark for hours. And here's a quirky thing: Redmond's low temperature Saturday was 53, exactly half of its 106-degree high, a 53-degree temperature swing. Other spots around the region were almost as hot or even hotter Saturday; The Dalles SET A RECORD of 109, while Walla Walla tied a record at 106.

MISSOURI - Weeks after Mississippi flooding, low water concerns - Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing problems, just weeks after one of the worst floods ever. Twice this week, tows pushing barges on the Mississippi north of St. Louis have become stuck in dirt and sand in the navigation channel. That's partly because the massive flooding in June washed ton after ton of sand and soil into the river. But it is also because portions of the Midwest have seen very little rain in the weeks since the flood. The river level is dropping up to a foot a day in some areas. "When you go from extreme high water to low water, that has a tendency to leave behind significant sediment, and it shifts channels unexpectedly." About 60 percent of the nation's agricultural commodities eventually exported overseas are shipped down the river to New Orleans. The change in river levels has been stunning. At Keokuk, Iowa, the Mississippi peaked at 26.9 feet on June 17, 10.9 feet above flood stage. By Thursday, 8/14, it was at 4.2 feet. At St. Louis, the river reached 38.7 feet on July 1. Flood stage is 30 feet. It now stands at 8.4 feet. The Coast Guard closed the river to barge traffic near Winfield, though it is evaluating each tow that arrives and letting some through. It is common for the river level to drop in late summer. Still, this year's extremes have created a difficult situation. The Corps plans a massive dredging operation.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Australia's cotton industry is on the brink of collapse because of the drought and many growers have turned to other farming options.

Canada - Grande Prairie area of northern Alberta suffering from drought. Areas in central and southwest Peace County are expecting low crop yields.

SWEDEN - Heavy rain threatens Swedish harvest - The situation is precarious for Swedish grain farmers. Dry weather in the beginning of the summer hindered sowing and when the crops are now ready for harvesting the heavy rain is causing the problems. "The heavy rain means that the quality of the crops declines. A large part of the cereals harvest in central Sweden has been lost and has become fodder which gives a lower price... Fourteen days to 3 weeks of warm, dry weather, preferably windy, would enable most of it to be collected." However forecasts show no indication of being kind on the farmers. "We will have to wait a couple of weeks for good weather. It is looking generally unstable in the near future with two fronts of low pressure in the coming week." To rub salt into the wounds of the farming sector, grain prices have declined worldwide as a result of good harvests in Europe, the USA, Russia, Australia and China.

INDIA - Thousands of acres of fertile land with sown paddy crop has been inundated by flood waters. Livestock was also washed away. This is the worst flooding in Punjab, which contributes over 50 per cent of the foodgrain to the national pool, since 1988. Hundreds of villagers were still waiting for help while being perched on rooftops of submerged houses and on train tracks.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Sunday, August 17, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There have been a rash of burglaries recently in my neighborhood (until now, a very safe place). A burglar has been entering by cutting the screens on windows that have been left open at night, while people are at home. Last night while working on the webpage, I had my sliding door partly open, but the screen door was locked. I walked out of the computer room to find a person in a hooded sweatshirt standing on my deck, having already cut about 4 inches of the screen on the door! There were lights on, the radio was on, the outside security lights had turned on, and it had to be obvious that someone was home and awake and still this guy was breaking in. There was a lot of excitement after that with 12 cop cars and canine units and a big dragnet around the area. They tracked the guy through several yards, a park and down a street where they figure he got into a car and drove off. Just thought I would mention this in case you've also let your security get a little lax - I was careless and this could have turned out very badly. Keep vigilant and stay safe!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/16/08 -
5.0 ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
5.4 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
8/15/08 -
5.9 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

PHILIPPINES - a strong 5.9 earthquake shook the eastern Philippines on Friday, with minor damage reported. There were no reports of injuries. The temblor was centered 26 miles(42 kilometers) northeast of eastern Sorsogon city. At the six-story Metro Gaisano Mall in Legazpi city, the quake toppled toys and home decor items and left cracks on walls. Shoppers ran in panic, some of them crying. Aftershocks may occur, but a tsunami was unlikely as there was no "change" monitored in nearby waters.

CALIFORNIA - It’s been so long since the Southern section of the San Andreas Fault ruptured that one scientist called the southern section of the fault “10 months pregnant.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut coming up is a week-long series of events Nov. 12 through Nov. 16 designed to get people interested and excited about earthquake preparedness before it is too late. The scenario of a 200-mile 7.8 rupture of the San Andreas Fault from the Salton Sea, through San Bernardino County and the Cajon Pass, projects about 1,800 deaths, along with a disruption to the water supply for up to six months and 1,600 fires that will overwhelm emergency services. Interstate 15 and Interstate 10 will be severed, cutting off access between valley areas and the desert.

The area where earthquakes may occur off the coast of Washington and Oregon probably extends further inland than previously believed. Seismologists widely believe that earthquakes in subduction zones occur in the region where temperatures are between 150 and 350 C (300 to 650 F). Research shows that water rapidly circulating in an aquifer in seafloor rocks moves a tremendous amount of heat in subduction zones and affects where those key temperatures for earthquake generation occur — they are much further landward than previously thought. Water flowing through basalt formations moves heat out of subduction zones. In the subduction zone off Japan, that heat transfer cools the underground rock, thus shifting the area where earthquakes can be generated more than 50 kilometers (30 miles) farther landward, and closer to coastal cities, than previously believed. "We know the Earth is cooling. However, it's happening differently than you might expect. Water moving through the basaltic formations is a really efficient and effective heat transfer mechanism." Research to examine heat-transfer offshore the Pacific Northwest to determine the eastern boundary of the seismic zone may result in a re-evaluation of the seismic hazard for the greater Seattle metropolitan area.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Visitors have been banned from hiking on Mt Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait because the volcano is spewing red-hot and hazardous materials. The vulcano and its surroundings are in a level-2 alert status as the volcano was still producing volcanic quakes. Should the spewing of red-hot materials with 1,500 celsius degrees hit someone it would likely kill the person. At present the eruption has only happened in the southern part of Mt Anak Krakatau.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 108 nmi NNW of Kingston, Jamaica.
Tropical depression ISELLE was 308 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 13W was 367 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm VONGFONG was 420 nmi E of Tokyo, Japan.

Florida has declared a state of emergency ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Fay, which has swept through the island of Hispaniola. At least four people were killed in flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which share Hispaniola. Some 2,000 people had to leave their homes in the Dominican Republic and hundreds of properties were damaged. Cuban officials have ordered evacuations from low-lying areas in several provinces, where Fay is expected to come ashore today or Monday. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Fay could become a hurricane as it moves towards Cuba then on to Florida. Torrential rainfall of 30.5cm could be expected. Florida's Governor declared a state of emergency, saying Fay threatened a "major disaster".

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MYANMAR - Severe flooding triggered by torrential rains has struck areas of Myanmar still recovering from the severe cyclone that killed more than 84000 people.

POLAND - Four people died and over thirty are in hospital, thousands of trees were broken, hundreds of houses and cars destroyed, roofs torn off during the whirlwind and violent winds that swept over a few of Poland's southern provinces. In the Opolskie Province, strong winds turned over a bus, injuring 15 people. Roofs were torn off from over a hundred houses in the Silesian Province. According to witnesses, the storm destroyed everything in its path.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning consumers against eating certain frozen cooked mussel products made by Bantry Bay Seafoods, imported from Ireland, because they may be contaminated with azaspiracid toxins.

Friday, August 15, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
As a well-spent day brings happy sleep, so life well used brings happy death.
Leonardo da Vinci

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/14/08 -
5.5 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Spike in activity at Chaiten volcano. The volcano in southern Chile spewed a column of smoke 4 miles (6 kilometers) into the air and rained ash on a nearby village, in what geologists characterized Thursday as a brief spike in activity. The volcano rumbled to life Wednesday evening with a series of medium-strength earthquakes, but returned to a state of low-level activity by the next morning. Chaiten has been active with varying intensity since a May 2 eruption that forced the evacuation of thousands of people around a town of the same name. Residents have yet to return.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FAY was 16 nmi ENE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Tropical storm ISELLE was 321 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm VONGFONG was 243 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

Tropical Storm Fay heads to Cuba - Severe weather over the Dominican Republic has strengthened into a tropical storm which is heading towards Cuba. It is expected to travel across Haiti on Saturday, before veering north and hitting eastern Cuba later in the day. Fay is the sixth tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Two of the tropical storms so far, Bertha and Dolly, have reached hurricane strength - with winds of at least 119km/h. US weather forecasters said Fay was not expected to strengthen, but said that torrential rainfall of 12in (30.5cm) could be expected. (map)

Tropical Storm Vongfong formed overnight Thursday and was forecast to pass south of Tokyo midday Saturday.

Tropical Storm Iselle is expected to weaken and become a tropical depression far off Mexico's Pacific coast.

VIETNAM - The death toll from tropical storm Kammuri and subsequent floods, THE WORST FLOODS IN DECADES, has risen to at least 127 in northern Vietnam, with 34 others still listed as missing.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - RECORD MONSOON RAINS in Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh - The monsoon rainfall this year has broken a six-year-old record. "Recorded monsoon rainfall from June 1 to Aug 13 this year in Chandigarh is 782.4 mm (millimeter) which is 34 percent more than normal during this period. "In 2007 and 2006, we had only 458.4 mm and 349.2 mm rainfall, respectively, in this period that was far below the normal rainfall." The normal rainfall in the monsoon season between June 1 to Aug 14 is 585 mm in Chandigarh. Punjab and Haryana have also witnessed record rainfall during the monsoon. The met office recorded 369 mm rainfall in Punjab till Aug 10 which is 36 percent more than normal. In Haryana, the recorded downpour till date is 319 mm which is 28 percent more than the normal rainfall. The rainfall in 2007 and 2006 were 228 mm and 209 mm, respectively, which were also below the normal. "One major reason of this heavy downpour in the region is the early advent of monsoon in 2008 that came June 13. Then it rained at regular intervals in patches without any significant break. This has happened many times before but it is a new thing that we observed in the last 6-7 years in this region."

LAOS - Four people have been killed in flooding and landslides in Laos, where the Mekong river has hit ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN AT LEAST 100 YEARS after several months of UNUSUALLY heavy rain. The government and ordinary people in the landlocked Southeast Asian country have been rushing to complete a 2.5 metre (8 ft) wall of sandbags to stop the chocolate-brown waters inundating the capital, Vientiane. The Mekong, which flows 4,350 km (2,700 miles) from the glaciers of Tibet to the rice-rich delta of southern Vietnam, hit 13.68 metres (44.88 feet) in Vientiane on Thursday, trouncing a high of 12.38 metres (40.61 feet) recorded in 1966, the worst floods in living memory. Downstream, eastern Thailand and low-lying Cambodia are braced for major flooding as the water surge moves slowly south. The high waters will ultimately flow down into Vietnam.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Peppers Unlimited, Inc. of Fontana California is voluntarily recalling 580 cases of La Torre Jalapeno Nacho Slices because of possible product contamination caused by a chemical reaction between the product and the can.
-Mars Petcare announced a voluntary recall of limited bags of PEDIGREE Complete Nutrition Small Crunchy Bites sold in Albertsons stores in Southern California and Las Vegas, Nevada. The pet food is being voluntarily recalled because of potential contamination with Salmonella.

Thursday, August 14, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Do not fear death so much, but rather the inadequate life.
Bertolt Brecht

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/13/08 -
5.5 NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA
5.6 NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - There's lots of volcanic action in the Aleutians arc at the moment, with three volcanoes: Okmok, Cleveland, and Kastochi, all erupting at various points in the last month or so. (map)(plot of the activity of the three volcanoes against each other)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 11W was 218 nmi W of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm ISELLE was 202 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SCOTLAND - Chaos across Fife as two weeks' worth of rain falls in one night - Buildings were flooded, roads closed and a wheelchair-bound man evacuated from his home Tuesday after torrential rainfall in Fife. Freuchie, near Glenrothes, and Cupar, in Angus, were among the areas most badly affected by the downpour, in which half an average month's rain fell in one night. Environmental groups gave warning that flooding is likely to become worse in the future. "Statistics show we are having longer rain events, which can build up more water in rivers, more days of rain, and more rainfall, so the risk of flooding has increased. We have also built on flood plains and not been very clever in the way we have moved rivers."

BRITAIN - A girl of five drowned in a swollen river and a man was crushed to death by a tree as high winds and heavy rain battered Britain and caused transport chaos across the country on Wednesday. Heavy rain fell in the South and East Midlands and gale force winds of up to 60mph buffeted the South Coast. On Tuesday, some parts of the country suffered as much as three weeks' rain in just a few hours. And while skies will brighten briefly today, forecasters warn of another unsettled weekend across England. The damp, humid conditions have also spawned a plague of flying ants. (photos)

CHINA - Severe rainstorms have caused flash floods and landslides that killed at least 28 people and left eight missing in southwest China.

INDIA - Heavy monsoon rains in downtown Mumbai Wednesday caused collapse of two buildings and led to at least 10 death and 60 injuries.

PAKISTAN - Three persons were killed as a heavy downpour BROKE A 28 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD with 168 mm of rainfall in Lahore on Tuesday.

CONNECTICUT - Meteorologists blame an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN for the increase in the frequency and potency of the neighborhood-shaking thunder-and-lightning storms the region has experienced over the last couple of months. Technicians have seen an increase in computer problems consistent with lightning strikes and power surges. There have been 7,579 lightning strokes in New London County in 2008 through Monday. That's almost 6,000 strokes over last year's total, when 1,600 lightning strokes occurred during the same time period. A stroke is a series of electrical discharges comprising a single lightning discharge. A flash of lightning may contain one or a few tens of strokes. This year, an upper-level pool of cold air has made its way down from Canada and the Arctic and settled over the region, helping to create the storms. ”It's a VERY, VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN for this time of year. It's UNUSUAL that it lasted this long.” The pool of cold air has pushed the jet stream down near the Mason-Dixon Line in Georgia. Typically, at this time of year, the jet stream flows along the Canadian border.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/12/08 -
5.1 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Aleutian volcanos continue to cause problems - The ash cloud from Kasatochi Volcano has drifted over 1650 miles into the flight paths of aircraft in Anchorage and caused more than 50 flight cancellations Sunday and Monday. The oval shaped ash cloud was 300 miles at its widest point and moving around 39,000 to 40,000 feet in the air. This is an old ash cloud emitted during the initial eruption last Thursday. The ash might cause more delays over the next few days. Kasatochi may not be through erupting. "Our opinion is that it's still a restless volcano and it would not be a big surprise if we saw some more activity out at Kasatochi." They don't expect more large earthquakes in the region like were experienced last week. "That was VERY UNUSUAL. It's typically PRETTY RARE to see earthquakes that big associated with a volcano. We typically don't see that kind of seismic intensity."
Mount Cleveland also seems to be perking up again. AVO raised the volcano from yellow to orange Monday afternoon because of satellite images of new lava at the summit. "A lot of times when Cleveland produces a strong thermal anomaly at the summit, it's sometimes followed by an explosive ash emission. Sometimes these ash emissions can go high, above 30,000 feet."
Okmok is also at orange. Penair representatives say they are monitoring ash from all three volcanoes to see when they can resume flights to Nikolski and Atka.
For more information on the volcanoes, check out the AVO's website.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 11W was 192 nmi SW of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm HERNAN was 1340 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression KIKA was 953 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropics get restless as heart of hurricane season arrives - After an eerie period of quiet, storm waves off the tropical Atlantic Ocean coast are showing signs of becoming cyclones. Two of them might be on a path toward the Southeast as hurricanes. Computer model runs suggest a third one is about to come off the African coast behind them. That's an unmistakable sign of the Cape Verde season, named for the islands off west Africa. The period is the heart of the hurricane year, when tropical cyclones tend to form off the African coast and turn into powerful hurricanes as they cross the Atlantic. Those storms pose the greatest threat to the Southeastern U.S. The season usually runs mid-August into October. Computer models suggest the first of the two storms could pass somewhere in the vicinity of Puerto Rico at hurricane strength by Friday. The second storm looks healthier than the first. "That's the one everybody's been barking about. We're getting to that time when every blob off the African coast is going to keep us on pins and needles." The hurricane center last week strengthened an earlier prediction of a busy year, giving an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season, up from 65 percent in May. Early season predictions suggested wind and temperature conditions put the Southeast right in the crosshairs, after a few years when the storms tended to move into the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Bertha raised concern when it formed from a Cape Verde wave in early July. But since then, the Cape Verde storms have fallen apart in dry air and strong shearing winds. Things have changed. A southerly jet stream that's kept those winds blowing is headed north. It will be over Charleston by Thursday, and the vaunted Bermuda high will follow it. A southerly Bermuda high tends to bump those storms into the Caribbean. When it goes north, the storms tend to chase it.

Tropical storm Kammuri - Wind and rain from Tropical Storm Kammuri , which affected numerous areas of Southeast Asia, has left thousands homeless in Vietnam and is causing widespread flooding in Laos. This was the fourth tropical storm to hit the area this year and affected countries are struggling to curb rising flood waters yet again with sandbags and earthen dams. In Vietnam, Lao Cai Province is the hardest hit with 37 people dead, 18 injured, and another 38 missing. The floods have cut off some districts in Lao Cai and triggered widespread landslides, but flash floods have caused the largest number of deaths. Residents in Laos are watching the Mekong River rise above flood stage, with the possibility of it spilling into a populated, bowl-shaped valley. Small villages line most riverbanks throughout Vietnam and Laos, and residents are dependent on the waterway as a source of transportation, food and water. These villages are most vulnerable to flash flooding, thus far the most dangerous threat to safety. More flashfloods and landslides are expected since heavy rains are forecast to continue in the next two days. August and September are the heaviest months for rain in Southeast Asia, and more flooding is likely.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - Fresh floods triggered by rains swept away a teenager in northern Vietnam and several boats were destroyed today, and the government struggled to deliver aid to thousands of people hit by THE WORST FLOODS IN FOUR DECADES.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - A RARE warning has been issued for the Tararua Range after THE FIRST RECORDED AVALANCHES THERE IN NEARLY 80 YEARS. Heavy snow falls have resulted in at least two avalanches and conditions that experienced mountaineers say would be similar to the high Southern Alps in winter. The department's Wairarapa area manager said that as far as he knew, the department had never had to warn trampers in the Tararuas about such fierce winter conditions. "Nobody locally can remember there being the sort of circumstances we have got right now. The snow is exceptionally deep with snowdrifts of two to three metres and the potential for further avalanches is very high right now." Snowdrifts are usually about a metre deep after heavy falls. The last recorded avalanche in the range was in 1929. A mountaineer said he could not believe his eyes when he stumbled across an avalanche in the Tararuas at the weekend. "In 30 years climbing in these ranges I HAVE NEVER SEEN CONDITIONS LIKE IT. We were climbing in blizzard conditions and it was reminiscent of the high Southern Alps in winter."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Companies developing genetically modified crops risk creating THE BIGGEST ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER "OF ALL TIME", Prince Charles has warned. GM crops are damaging Earth's soil and are an experiment "gone seriously wrong". A future reliance on corporations to mass-produce food will drive millions of farmers off their land. Huge multi-national corporations involved in developing genetically modified foods are conducting a "gigantic experiment with nature and the whole of humanity which has gone seriously wrong". Relying on "gigantic corporations" for food will end in "absolute disaster", he warned. "If they think this is the way to go, we will end up with millions of small farmers all over the world being driven off their land...That would be the absolute destruction of everything... and the classic way of ensuring there is no food in the future."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
Home Made Brand Foods is voluntarily recalling Ready-to-Eat Tuna Salad with an expiration date of 8/19/08. This product has the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
For three days after death, hair and fingernails continue to grow
but phone calls taper off.
Johnny Carson

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/11/08 -
5.4 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 OFFSHORE SUCRE, VENEZUELA
5.2 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Kilauea has started up again and lava is flowing from the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent. After a pause for several days without any lava activity on the surface of Kilauea, scientists Sunday reported a small surface flow moving northward and lava was once again reoccupying the tube system. However, no lava was flowing into the ocean. The paused flow indicates that the eruption, which began Jan. 3, 1983, and over the last several months delivered spectacular lava flow into the ocean at Waikupanaha, had shut down. Lava from the TEB vent, just inside the eastern border of Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park, had been flowing down the mountain, through the beleaguered Royal Gardens subdivision and eventually into the ocean at numerous places along the shoreline.

INDONESIA - Mt Anak Krakatau in the Sunda strait had 120 eruptions and quakes throughout Monday, prompting the Volcanological and Geological Disaster Mitigation Centger to declare the volcano and its surroundings in level-2 alert status. "Even now the volcano is still spewing red-hot lava and thick smoke." However, the frequency of the eruptions and quakes had been declining compared to those in the last two days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 1187 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KIKA was 915 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SCOTLAND has suffered diabolical weather this month. Heavy rains have led to widespread floods, disrupting roads and railways; landslides blocked roads in the Borders; and a dam in Renfrewshire will be demolished after water reached dangerous levels for a second time. Coincidentally, today marks the 60th anniversary of the Great Border Floods across southeast Scotland and Northumberland. August 1948 was a month when gales battered the North Sea, snow fell in Switzerland, thunderstorms plagued Britain and Edinburgh had its wettest month on record.

Tropical downpours are becoming more frequent and the trend seems WORSE THAN EXPECTED, bringing greater risks of flash floods. "As the tropics warm we are seeing an increased frequency in the heaviest rainfall." The trend to extreme soakings was stronger than predicted by computer models "implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes ... may be underestimated". The satellite data showed 2-3 times more intense downpours than predicted by the climate models. The findings were based on a study of the tropical oceans, where satellites can more easily record rainfall. The trends were likely to be matched over land. The U.N. Climate Panel said last year that rainfall was likely to get more intense in many tropical regions, raising risks of flash floods, erosion and mudslides. The U.N. Climate Panel says that shifts in rainfall patterns are likely to disrupt farming in many regions, affecting the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The U.N. Panel predicts more rain overall this century in many parts of the tropics and towards the polar areas with declines in middle latitudes such as the Mediterranean basin, the Western United States and southern Africa.

COLD -
Ocean cycle may explain cool Alaskan summer - temperatures in Alaska this summer have been UNUSUALLY cold. July in Fairbanks averaged 60.6 degrees, almost two degrees below normal. And August is averaging 51.4 degrees, a whopping 7.7 degrees below the long-term norms. One Fairbanks writer said this summer is "becoming the most miserable in recorded history." What seems to have occurred, is a shift to what climatologists call the cold phase of a cycle in the North Pacific Ocean called the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation," or PDO. NASA climatologists said in May the cool phase seems to have begun last fall, and could influence temperature and rainfall patterns in the United States for decades to come, including enhanced hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, milder winters on the east coast, more dry weather in the Southwest and Southeast, and cooler, rainier weather in the northwest. The Arctic Low, a persistent feature of the far northern atmosphere that usually hangs out near Greenland, has shifted west to the northeast corner of Siberia. "That has ... put us into a lot of flow from the northwest, out of the arctic. And anytime you get air off the arctic, it's not gonna be warm." It also brings persistent cloudiness to the skies over Alaska. A big flock of cranes was flying through Fairbanks last week, perhaps a sign of colder weather in the far north and an early fall. The lack of sunshine has impaired the development of wild berries. The cool-phase PDO also tends to produce disappointing salmon runs in Alaska, while enhancing them in the northwestern corner of the lower 48 states. "What really makes it interesting is that we've seen two or three events of snow down to 3,500 feet or so (in the mountains), right in the middle of summer. That's definitely not a usual thing here." When these PDO phases shift, they tend to do so for decades, not the 4- to 7-year cycles typical of the El Nino/La Nina cyclings in the tropical Pacific. The Icebox State could be in for a long haul. "That's what's concerning us, if this is in fact the PDO." The last time the PDO shifted into a cool phase was in 1947. And it stayed there until 1976, bringing cooler, cloudier summers. The big question is how the cool PDO will interact with the longer, global "signal" from global warming. "We're not sure. Maybe they'll cancel each other out for a while."

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Five scientists studying shorebirds in northern Alaska had to take flight after a polar bear showed up at a time of year it should have been out on ice floes hunting seals. The New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society said Thursday that it chartered a plane to fly the experts out early "because of a NEW AND UNUSUAL THREAT: a polar bear stuck on land due to climate change." Polar bears would normally be out on sea ice in spring and summer, "but with recent warming the ice is miles from shore and bears are becoming increasingly trapped on land well away from their usual seal prey." The experts were surveying birds feeding on the shorelines north of Teshekpuk Lake on the Beaufort Sea prior to their southward migrations. "The shorelines have experienced dramatic erosion because of the warming climate...Polar bears have been trapped on land in Arctic Alaska all spring and summer unable to swim out to sea ice and pursue seals. Their condition and how dangerous they might be is unknown." (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Monday, August 11, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Democracy is a process by which the people are free to choose the man who will get the blame.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/10/08 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SAIPAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Almost two years after its major eruption, Mayon Volcano spewed ash again Sunday morning reaching about 200 meters above the crater before drifting east-northeast. The ash-ejection was recorded by seismic sensors around the volcano as an explosion-type earthquake, which lasted for one minute. Thick clouds covering the volcano’s summit at that time hindered visual observation of the phreatic explosion, which occurred at 9:12 a.m. Sunday. “Seismic activity during the past weeks had slightly increased as well as crater glow which had slightly intensified...observations show that Mayon Volcano is undergoing an episode of increased activity probably related to magma movement towards the crater or a post eruptive behavior of the volcano." Although no major eruption is imminent, steam and ash explosions may occur in the following days. Mayor Volcano has been under alert level 1 since 2007.

CHILE - Three months after erupting, for what scientists say they believe was the first time in 9,370 years, the Chaitén volcano continues to threaten to coat this formerly picturesque town with volcanic ash. The volcano eruption in May spared Chaitén, but later the river that runs by the town, swollen with volcanic material and rain, overflowed its banks, burying houses in gray mud. The aftereffects of the eruption destroyed half of the town of 5,000 residents. Uncertainty about if and when they will ever be able to return to the tranquil seaside life they cherished is tearing many of them apart. The number of temblors recorded in the past 10 days averaged 10 a day, compared with 200 to 300 temblors a day at the end of July. But lava has created a new solidified dome that could plug the volcano’s vent — like putting a lid on a pressure cooker — and lead to another explosion. “It is very difficult to say when this is going to stop. There is less material being emitted, but the volcano could reactivate at any moment.” More than 150 known eruptions have occurred from 30 volcanoes in Chile since about the year 1600. “It is just a matter of time for a lot of little towns in Chile.” (photos)

Yellowstone supervolcano is only lukewarm - How hot is the Yellowstone hotspot? At 80 kilometres beneath the Earth's surface it's about 1450 °C – which, for a supervolcano, is only lukewarm. That doesn't mean we won't get another eruption. The last explosion, some 642,000 years ago, created the Yellowstone caldera and blanketed half of the present day US in ash. But the relatively tepid temperature means the supervolcano could be on its last legs. Yellowstone National Park in the US is one of a few dozen volcanic hotspots around the world, along with the likes of Hawaii and Iceland. What causes it to periodically erupt is not clear. Some researchers think it is disturbances in the top 200 kilometres of the Earth's interior, but increasingly the evidence is pointing to a large plume of hot mantle rising up from much deeper, melting its way through the crust. "This [plume] is much colder than other presumed mantle plumes, such as Hawaii." This adds to suggestions that the plume has disconnected from its heat source in the Earth's core. If this is true, it means the plume could be dying – and that the sequence of mega-eruptions could come to an end. "If it doesn't have clear source, as it rises eventually the plume will die out." That doesn't mean there won't be another eruption, however. If temperature estimates are correct, there is still enough heat there to trigger eruptions. "I would suspect there is life in the Yellowstone hotspot. To me, ruling out a future catastrophic eruption would be foolish."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 1052 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KIKA was 766 nmi SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BURKINA FASO - A mudslide unleashed by torrential rains killed at least 40 illegal gold miners in Burkina Faso.

IRELAND - Motorists were rescued from trapped cars and hundreds of houses were damaged after RECORD LEVELS OF RAINFALL caused freak flash flooding across Dublin on Saturday in THE WETTEST AUGUST DAY IN LIVING MEMORY. The clean-up operation is estimated to cost the city thousands of euro after the combination of monsoon-like rain and a high-tide caused drains to block-up, flooding properties.

INDIA - After drought, its now deluge in Andhra Pradesh - After playing truant for about two months, the skies have finally opened up over Andhra Pradesh resulting in an unabated downpour over 24 hours. Incessant rains over the last 24 hours have brought life to a virtual halt in many parts of Andhra Pradesh, including the state capital, Hyderabad. And, the heavy downpour was expected to continue for the next 48 hours on the impact of a depression in Bay of Bengal. The fate of many fishermen who ventured into the sea off the Suryalanka coast in Guntur district is still not known. The death toll is expected to mount as more low-lying areas in districts are fast getting inundated due to flash floods. Water level in Hussain Sagar lake in Hyderabad is rising, causing fears among the people. Standing crops in thousands of hectares, mostly in the delta regions, were inundated and the loss could be in tens of crores of rupees. Almost all rivers in the state are in spate.

CANADA - On Saturday Toronto SMASHED THE PREVIOUS SUMMER RAINFALL RECORD set back in 1986 when 335.9 millimetres of precipitation fell between June 1st and Aug. 31st.

ARIZONA - This year's monsoon on track for record book - Already, there has been more rain in 2008, 5.89 inches, than there was in all of 2007 or 2006, respectively.

COLD-

AUSTRALIA - extreme cold snap forecast - Severe weather was expected across Victoria Sunday, with snow, floods and high winds expected in some parts of the state. High winds and black ice were expected to cause problems on the state's roads. The Weather Bureau said the extreme burst of cold weather was a risk to humans and livestock. "This is probably THE FIRST TIME WE'VE PUT OUT A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS SORT OF THING. There is going to be some very dangerous conditions that could cause flash floods, SNOW IN PLACES IT'S NOT NORMALLY SEEN and other hazards in many parts of the state." Hail was forecast for some parts of Melbourne. The cold snap was expected to pass to Tasmania later this week.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Sunday, August 10, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A weak man has doubts before a decision, a strong man has them afterwards.
Karl Kraus

This morning two successive earthquakes of moderate intensity rocked the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The first tremor, measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale was felt around 1.50 pm and lasted for a few seconds. The second shock of 5.2 magnitude on the Richter scale was felt around 2.57 pm and also lasted for a few seconds. No damages were reported immediately. The islands were earlier rocked by strong earthquakes on June 27 and 28.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/9/08 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.3 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.7 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
8/8/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SULU ARCHIPELAGO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Kasatochi is the third volcano to erupt in the Aleutian Islands in three weeks. Kasatochi Volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands erupted explosively Aug. 7, sending an ash plume more than 35,000 feet into the air and forcing two biologists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to evacuate the island. "Kasatochi went from a quiet volcano to an explosive eruption within 24 hours and with very little warning." Okmok Volcano erupted unexpectedly and explosively on July 12, followed by Cleveland Volcano, 100 miles away, on July 21. Both volcanoes sent ash plumes skyrocketing and caused commercial airline flights to be diverted or cancelled.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Panic gripped people as the sea receded in Kanyakumari on August 4th - About 300 tourists on a visit to the famous Vivekananda Rock Memorial in the sea had a harrowing time after they were stranded as the water suddenly receded 10 to 15 feet from the shore, triggering fears of Tsunami. The boat services to the rock memorial were suspended from 9 am to 12 pm due to the sudden low tide. Boats could not venture to bring back the visitors who had sailed to the rock, about ten-minute ride from the shore in the initial trips before the low tide occurred. A similar low tide had occurred off Kanyakumari a brief while before the killer Tsunami hit many parts of the state and neighbouring Kerala and Puducherry in December 2004. Local people said Monday's phenomenon created a flutter for a while as strong winds and the receding sea bared a string of rocks which remain submerged in normal conditions. Though the low tide had occurred several times after the Tsunami, this was the first time the phenomenon persisted for such a long duration. After the sea became normal, the boats were set out and the stranded people were brought ashore safely.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HERNAN was 908 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KIKA was 667 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.

VIETNAM - At least 125 people were dead or missing in mountainous northern Vietnam today after heavy rains brought by tropical storm Kammuri triggered widespread flash floods and landslides. Massive flooding has cut off entire villages.

Kammuri, the ninth tropical storm of the year, made another landfall in southwest China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 2:50 pm on Thursday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - 2 separate landslides in southwest China's Yunnan Province on Saturday - 6 dead, several missing.

NEPAL - At least 10 people were killed and two others missing in a landslide that hit western Nepal on Wednesday. The landslide has buried several houses in a remote mountain village in Bajura district.

INDIA - Over 140 killed, more than 100 injured in Hill Temple Stampede in Northern India. Rumours of a landslide and boulders hurtling down from a nearby hilltop triggered off a huge panic and a stampede down a narrow mountain trail.
Scores of people died in flash floods and houses collapsed during the past 24 hours due to heavy rain. At least 11 people died Saturday after 12 hours of heavy rain caused houses to collapse in Hyderabad in southern India.

NEW ZEALAND - Heavy rain spurs MOST LANDSLIPS FOR 10 YEARS in Wellington. Wellington was waterlogged, with heavy rains throughout July and 69 millimetres of rain already this month.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TURKEY - Wildfires have blackened 25,000 acres in Turkey's prime tourism region, leaving at least one person dead. Dozens of people were left homeless in Antalya province, where flames destroyed about 60 homes in the village of Karatas. An elderly man's body was found in the wreckage of one house. A second elderly villager was reported missing. "I have dealt my whole life with fires but I have never seen a sight like this ...I can... say that we are experiencing a catastrophe."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Friday, August 8, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
What is defeat? Nothing but education;
nothing but the first step to something better.
Wendell Phillips

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
4.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/7/08 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.8 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
8/6/08 -
5.7 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
8/5/08 -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.0 NORTHWEST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
8/4/08 -
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
6.2 BANDA SEA
5.4 CRETE, GREECE
5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
8/3/08 -
5.0 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 AEGEAN SEA
8/2/08 -
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
8/1/08 -
5.0 TAIWAN
5.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.8 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.3 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

CHINA - Three people were killed and thousands of houses destroyed by a powerful aftershock in China's Sichuan province. The 6.0 quake struck near Guangyuan City at 1800 (1000GMT) on Tuesday, August 5th. At least 35 people were injured. Water and power supplies were cut off in Yaodu, and communication facilities were also damaged. More than 3,200 houses collapsed in the region. The aftershock is one of thousands to hit the area since the devastating earthquake in May.
CHINA - The 5.8-magnitude earthquake that hit south-west China on August 1st left 231 people hurt. The quake caused severe landslides and sent tonnes of rock tumbling down mountainsides in the north of Sichuan province on a route that leads to Huanglong and Jiuzhaigou. Along that route in Pingwu County, 540 homes were destroyed and 2450 others damaged.

INDONESIA - A powerful 6.6-magnitude quake destroyed more than 500 homes on a remote island chain in eastern Indonesia early Thursday, but only five people were injured. The quake struck Sumbawa island in the West Nusa Tenggara chain. Three villages were hard hit.

CALIFORNIA - Last week's 5.4 magnitude earthquake happened on a fault scientists say they didn't know about before. The fault is nine miles deep, and about halfway between the Whittier and Chino Faults. "This earthquake was a thrust-type earthquake. Which means one block of the earth moved up past the other block." The fault will not be able to do much more shaking than it did last week.

MORE MYSTERY RUMBLING -
CANADA - JULY 31 - Mystery deepens surrounding Kincardine area explosions - The mystery has deepened surrounding explosions that shook the Kincardine area last Thursday with University of Western Ontario scientists ruling out a meteor shower. “Something pretty significant exploded south and west of Goderich and Kincardine. It could have exploded out in Lake Huron." Highly sensitive devices installed near Lucan by Western to monitor low frequency sound waves detected a series of four impulses that lasted about a minute, starting at 11:12 p.m. on July 31. Five minutes later a low frequency rumbling was detected coming from the Kincardine area. “If you had been in London and it was really quiet outside, you should just have been able to hear the low rumble from these explosions. That’s UNUSUAL at this sort of a distance." With Ontario’s largest nuclear plant located just north of Kincardine, the explosions have triggered international media interest. Officials at Bruce Power have said there was nothing unusual at the nuclear station. South Bruce OPP were inundated with 911 calls shortly after 11 p.m. that night with residents describing walls shaking and windows rattling. The signals detected at Lucan, probably five or six minutes after the original blast, were intense. If it had been caused by a meteor, there should have been a bright fireball in the sky. The university has a camera system at Kincardine aimed at the sky to capture the image of any meteors. “We have already looked during the time interval of interest. It was clear that night and no meteor.” The monitoring devices at Lucan indicate all of the explosions occurred in the same area south and west of the Kincardine area and south of Goderich. In the past, the same instruments have picked up mining explosions in Wyoming in the western U.S. and the Shell refinery explosion in Sarnia. “Based on frequency content and the phenomenology of the signals, these are not consistent from what we would expect from a meteor at all." But the signals also don’t fit another theory, that it was caused by a sonic boom from a jet. “They are not all that consistent with shockwaves you would see with supersonic aircraft.” The closest fit for the signals from the explosion, particularly the low rumbling, would be surface blasting at a mine. The only mine in the area is Sifto Salt’s underground operation at Goderich. A worker at the mine who lives nearby said he has never felt any tremor from blasting at the salt mine that stretches under the lake.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - KASATOCHI VOLCANO near Atka, on the Aleutian chain, erupted Thursday afternoon. Kasatochi is a young volcano with no known historical eruptions, though it is covered in relatively young volcanic debris. The Alaska Volcano Observatory does not have any scientific instruments on the volcano and relies on seismic data from nearby islands. [There has been an ongoing large cluster of moderate and small quakes in the Aleutian Islands near Atka and Adak since Wednesday, including a 5.8 near Adak yesterday. In early May, the nearby island of Adak was hit by three tremors with a magnitude greater than 6 over a two week period. They were followed by hundreds of smaller aftershocks.]

OREGON - Major avalanche reshapes Mount Adams - A two-mile-long avalanche of ice and rocks large enough to rattle seismometers has reworked the southwest face of Mount Adams. The volcano is usually very quiet, with few of the tremors that occur occasionally at other Cascade volcanoes such as Mount Hood. So the seismic signal from Mount Adams on Aug. 1 stood out. All three of the known large avalanches from this area on Mount Adams have occurred in a summer following a winter of especially heavy snow. In the past avalanches, a large part of Avalanche Glacier has tumbled down. It's not clear how much of the glacier remains. Such avalanches are a major force in reshaping Cascade volcanoes between eruptions.

CALIFORNIA - A patch of land in Ventura County's section of Los Padres National Forest where the ground recently heated up to 812 degrees F continues to puzzle firefighters and geologists after weeks of monitoring. "It's a thermal anomaly." The 812-degree temperature was measured Friday about a foot below the surface. No other temperature checks have been made since. The executive director of Los Padres ForestWatch said he had not heard of hot spots in the oil field but was concerned about their potential effect on the nearby Sespe Condor Sanctuary and the forest's fire-prone nature. "It's just a disaster waiting to happen . . . regardless of what the cause is."
In 1943, a Mexican farmer saw smoke coming out of the middle of his cornfield. A week later it erupted into a volcano that within the next year was over 1,000 feet high, and by 1952 was a 1,400 mountain - Paracutian Volcano (Volcán de Parícutin).

Scientists recently found and have been monitoring a fissure spewing "supercritical" water at over 760 degrees F in the Atlantic Ocean. Deep down at the very bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, geochemists have found something truly extraordinary: "It's water, but not as we know it." At over 3 kilometres beneath the surface, sitting atop what could be a huge bubble of magma, it's the HOTTEST WATER EVER FOUND ON EARTH. The fluid is in a "supercritical" state that HAS NEVER BEFORE BEEN SEEN IN NATURE. The fluid spews out of two black smokers called Two Boats and Sisters Peak. Computer models suggest that the fluid that comes out of these black smokers initially seeps down into surrounding cracks in the seabed, gradually getting deeper and hotter as it approached the Earth's magma. Eventually, at 407 °C and 300 bars of pressure, the water becomes supercritical. Because supercritical water is far less dense than liquid water, it shoots up to the seabed like a bubble and it is spat out into the ocean through vents. Supercritical water leaches metals and other elements out of rock far more efficiently than liquid water or vapour. Gold, copper, iron, manganese, sulphur and many more are brought out of the Earth's guts when the water is ejected from the black smokers. In the Pacific, vents tend to cool after a year or so, but it is likely that the Two Boats and Sisters Peak have been active since an earthquake shook the region in 2002. "The magma body underneath is probably enormous."

INDONESIA - Dark clouds again blanketed Mount Anak Krakatau on Sunday, making vulconological officers unable to visually monitor its activities. "Since the past three months, the volcano`s activities have not been clearly visible as dark clouds are blanketing it." The dark clouds were attributed to the bad weather in Sunda Strait, marked by large waves and strong winds. The waves in the Sunda Strait are currently 1.5 meters high.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HERNAN was 640 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KIKA was 741 nmi SE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Rise in 2008 hurricanes predicted - The Atlantic hurricane season is set to be more active this year than initially predicted, with up to 10 hurricanes expected, US meteorologists say. Between 14 and 18 named storms could be produced, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six of them being classified as "major" hurricanes. The adjustment in predictions was the result of atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic which favour storm development - combined with a strong early season activity and the third most active July since 1886. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which ends in November, has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with the peak months running form August to October. Tropical storm Edouard hit Texas on Tuesday, the fifth storm this season. Edouard made landfall between Galveston and Louisiana and brought heavy rains and winds of up to 65mph (100km/h). The near-hurricane strength storm weakened as it moved inland, with flooding the only remaining concern.

PHILIPPINES - Two persons died after Typhoon Julian [Kammuri] battered the Ilocos Region and nearby provinces in Luzon for the past days. The typhoon also caused a tornado that hit the town of Bolinao in Pangasinan Province, destroying several houses.

VIETNAM - Kammuri typhoon hits Vietnam - Water levels of northern rivers are rising. This typhoon has entered the Tonkin Gulf, causing wide-spread rains. Some locations have reported losses caused by Kammuri. Experts forecast that the typhoon would directly hit northwestern provinces of Vietnam and it will weaken to become a tropical depression. The coastal areas of Quang Ninh and Nam Dinh provinces were expected to suffer strong winds of 6-8 grades. Experts have warned people in these regions to beware of whirlwinds, flash floods and landslides. A strong whirlwind collapsed three coal pouring machines in Cua Ong port, Quang Ninh province, injuring two workers. Some areas in Thuan Chau district, northern mountainous province of Son La are flooded because of big rains on August 5-6. Some temporary bridges have been swept away, several kilometres of canals and roads damaged. The water levels of some rivers like the Red River and Thai Binh River are rising.

Typhoon Kammuri swept Macau, China Wednesday with intense storms, causing hundreds of people to be stranded at the ferry terminal and airport with nearly 100 incidents reported, mainly fallen trees, scaffoldings and signs, as well as loosened windows and canopies. The tropical cyclone landed on Yangjiang in Guangdong province after leaving Macau at a speed of 20 kilometres per hour. Team Great Britain's Olympic preparations ground to a halt when their training camp in Macau was caught in the midst of the typhoon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SUDAN - Seasonal heavy rains in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal state caused the Kuom river to overflow in the town of Aweil, making 39,000 people homeless in the region. Floods have displaced a further 1500 people in 14 villages of neighbouring Warrab state. Conditions in the annual floods have not reached levels of previous years.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Hundreds of chickens and ducks have been slaughtered to contain a suspected bird flu outbreak in Indonesia as 13 people with flu-like symptoms await laboratory results.

Friday, August 1, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The first step to getting the things you want out of life is this:
Decide what you want.
Ben Stein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.8 quake in the SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/31/08 -
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

CHINA - Two aftershocks today hit the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan, the site of May's devastating earthquake, with the second felt strongly in the provincial capital Chengdu. After the 7.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sichuan on May 12, more than 69,200 people were confirmed dead and some 18,000 are still listed as missing. The second aftershock today occurred at 16:32 local time (9:32 a.m. British time) and lasted for a "relatively long" time. It was measured at 5.8 on the Richter scale and the epicentre was on the border of Pingwu and Beichuan counties, both of which were devastated by the May 12 quake. The first aftershock struck Wenchuan county, the epicentre of the May 12 disaster, about six hours earlier and was measured at 3.9 on the Richter scale. At least three powerful aftershocks hit the Sichuan quake area on July 24, killing two people and injuring dozens. The Olympic torch relay for the August 8-24 Beijing Olympics is expected to take place in Sichuan from August 3-5.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

CHINA reeled Thursday from Tropical Storm Fung-wong, blamed for five deaths and scores of injuries since it made landfall as a typhoon three days earlier. Previously, Fung-wong killed two people in Taiwan and five in the Philippines. Now a tropical storm, Fung-wong spawned a tornado and triggered flash flooding that left four people missing besides the five confirmed dead. The tornado destroyed a clothing factory in Jiangsu's Linze town Wednesday. Four of the 90 people injured later died in a hospital. The flash flooding in Guangdong's Heyuan city, killed one timber worker while four others were reported missing. More than 3,000 people were marooned in the province's Zijin and Dongyuan counties, which remained under a severe weather alert. Fung-wong, the eighth tropical storm to hit China this year, made landfall in Fuqing in Fujian province and later moved to the other provinces. Economic losses in Fujian already exceed $140 million. Authorities had evacuated a total of 751,600 people across southeastern China in advance of the storm. The storm affected the livelihood of 3.86 million people, flooded 277,000 acres of farmland and destroyed more than 1,500 houses. Forecasters warned the weakened storm could still trigger more heavy rains and flooding as it moved northeastward toward Anhui and Shandong provinces.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALASKA - Downpours across Interior Alaska caused waterways including the Salcha and Tanana rivers to spill their banks Wednesday in a continuation of SOME OF THE WORST FLOODING HERE IN DECADES. The two-day rainfall totals were a combined 4 inches. Many of Salcha’s 1,000 residents and their immediate neighbors are unfortunate enough to experience periodic flooding. It occurs almost exclusively when chunks of ice in the Tanana River become lodged at bends, forming dams that flood the riverbanks. But this flooding is the same stuff seen in warmer latitudes. The four inches of rain that fell between Monday and Wednesday left soil across the region saturated. Rivers and sloughs rose, and many low lands transformed into huge puddles. On Wednesday evening, the Salcha River was at ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1968. The Tanana River, at well over 26 feet Wednesday evening, had risen to ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE FLOOD OF 1967. (photos)

CANADA - About 60 to 70 millimetres of rain fell on Gambo in just nine hours starting early Wednesday afternoon, causing flash flooding. The town in eastern Newfoundland says it could cost millions to repair the damage caused by the flooding. Most of the local roads in the town of Gambo were destroyed. Nearly 50 residents have reported flood damage to their homes so far.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

COLORADO - Denver breaks HEAT WAVE RECORD - Scorching temperatures reached well above 90 degrees Thursday to put this day in the weather record books. By mid-afternoon the high in Denver was 95 degrees. That BREAKS THE 104-YEAR-OLD RECORD with 19 consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher. There's no break in the searing heat just yet. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s into next week.

ICELAND - Heat Wave hits Iceland, NEW RECORDS SET - Temperatures rose to 26.2°C in Reykjavík yesterday, which is an ALL-TIME RECORD for Iceland’s capital. In Reykjavík, IT HAS NEVER BEEN AS WARM SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE FIRST REGISTERED 150 YEARS AGO. The heat record set in Reykjavík yesterday was of great significance. The previous record was 24.8°C. The heat wave was caused by interplay of warm air currents and clear skies. Other heat records were also broken yesterday - in Thingvellir National Park in southwest Iceland temperatures went up to 29.7°C, which is also a NEW RECORD. The last record was set in 2004 with 29°C. The Westman Islands saw a NEW RECORD with 21.6°C, as did Patreksfjördur in the West Fjords were the temperatures rose to 24.9°C.

CANADA - Flash flood fears forces evacuation of Baffin Island park - Thawing permafrost, eroding lakeshores, a melting glacier and fears of flash floods at a national park on Baffin Island have forced the evacuation of 21 tourists and led officials to declare much of the wilderness reserve off-limits until geologists and ice experts can assess what appear to be the latest dramatic effects of climate change in Canada's Arctic. The 19,000-square-kilometre Auyuittuq National Park on the island's northeast coast has recently experienced "RECORD-BREAKING" WARMTH and substantial amounts of rain. "This summer's events are beyond anything we're used to. This is no doubt a result of climate change." This week's crisis at Auyuittuq follows June flooding in the nearby community of Pangnirtung, where rain, melting ice and eroding riverbanks forced the shutdown of a key bridge linking the hamlet's two sides. Auyuittuq's dominant feature, the Penny Ice Cap, has been shedding water for weeks and warm weather has destabilized the shoreline around Crater Lake, a popular site in the park. Officials, concerned that the lake could catastrophically drain into a nearby valley, arranged a helicopter evacuation of tourists from the area. "Permafrost has melted in lots of areas. The lakes are held back by moraines that appear to be giving away. We need some advice."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Heat Wave threatens Midwest crops - Late-planted corn and soybean crops are in the hot seat this weekend and early next week as a scorching heat wave bears down upon the Midwest and the Great Great Plains Region. Several states in these areas are forecasted to see temperatures well over the 100ºF degree mark. If extreme heat lasts more than a week, moisture stress would severely impact late planted corn and soybean crops because of their shallow root systems. In June, after this year’s historic flooding in the Midwest, weather conditions have to be close to perfect for the remainder of the summer to help the crops that weren’t destroyed to flourish during a shortened growing season.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.

Thursday, July 31, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past,
he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.
Sidney J. Harris

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/30/08 -
5.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 GREECE

VOLCANOES -
MONTSERRAT - residue from the partially collapsed dome over the crater of Montserrat's volcano poses a health risk to US Virgin Islands residents and visitors with allergy and respiratory problems. The dome over the crater of the volcano partially collapsed on Monday night, spewing ash an estimated 40,000 feet into the sky. Doctors advised anyone removing ash fragments from vehicles, roofs and other areas to wear long-sleeved garments in order to limit direct contact and exposure to the ash residue.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
EUROPE - At last count 27 people have died in central and eastern Europe, following days of severe storms and flooding. Thousands have been left homeless.

NEW ZEALAND - Wild weather hits South Island. In Levin it was not just rain causing chaos - there was also a fierce wind to battle. Gusting at over 120km, the wind brought down powerlines and flung debris. The easterly wind is PARTICULARLY UNCOMMON. Pressure is building up behind the Tararua ranges, which is then swooping down the mountain side, causing unpredictable wind gusts. For much of the day Levin was without power. In the Hawkes Bay settlement of Haumoana, at least four beachfront properties were damaged and four metre swells threatened to take part of another one out to sea.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Tornado's 50-Mile Path Line was UNUSUAL - The scope of last Thursday's tornado in New Hampshire surprised even researchers at the National Weather Service who said it will be studied for years. "I think anybody would have to be surprised by such a large-scale tornado here in the state of New Hampshire." Researchers said the tornado stayed on the ground almost continuously for about an hour and 20 minutes and its path of damage has been extended to 50 miles long. "It probably will certainly be one of the longest path lines in New Hampshire, and it may be the longest path line. It's a HIGHLY UNUSUAL EVENT, and I think over the next few years, there will be a lot of research into just why we got this tornado and why was it so strong." (video)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRAZIL - PENGUINS are washing up on tropical beaches with scientists unsure why the Antarctic birds are heading closer to the equator than ever before. About 300 penguins have recently been found dead and alive along the coast of the Brazil' s Bahia state, 1200km northeast of Rio de Janeiro. "THIS IS UNHEARD OF. There have even been reports of penguins washing up as far as Aracaju." Biologists believe stronger-than-usual ocean currents had pulled the birds north but others have said overfishing and warmer ocean temperatures may have led the birds to search for food further north than their normal Antarctic and Patagonian habitats.
Hundreds of baby penguins swept from the icy s