Friday, February 29, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Competence, like truth, beauty and contact lenses,
is in the eye of the beholder.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/28/08 -
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

BRITAIN - Thousands of homes were rocked by the country's biggest earthquake in 24 years on Wednesday. This link has people's experiences of Wednesday's earthquakes - from babies being born to cracks appearing in houses, plus the seismogram of the quake and photos.

VOLCANOES -
MICRONESIA - residents are complaining of a foul smell in the air with hazy skies throughout Thursday evening. The conditions are being caused by low concentrations of sulfur gas as a result of a gas and steam plume being emitted by the Anatahan volcano, affecting most of the Micronesia region. Northerly wind gusts have carried the smell and haze to Guam and the Marianas. A Volcanic Haze and Sulfur Advisory has been issued for Saipan and Tinian; Rota and Guam are not impacted so severely as to call for an advisory at this time. The smell is projected to persist until sometime this afternoon.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 20P was 441 nmi ESE of Townsville, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Coastal and island communities between Kalumburu and Port Keats are being urged to prepare for a possible cyclone, following the development of a tropical low between the WA and Northern Territory border. The bureau had said there was a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing today. Gales are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - THE STRONGEST LA NINA WEATHER SYSTEM IN TWO DECADES to hit Australia delivered SOME OF THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE SUMMER WEATHER IN YEARS and gave hope to drought-stricken farmers. While much of southern Australia experienced average or little rainfall, Queensland and New South Wales had torrential rain and flooding. And as parts of the nation sweltered, others experienced their COOLEST SUMMER IN YEARS. "It's the first time for some years that we've had a significantly wetter summer than usual." NSW had its WETTEST SUMMER IN 16 YEARS, with Coonamble recording its SOGGIEST ON RECORD. Sydney recorded 422mm of rain, well above its summer average of 298mm, while its average maximum temperature was 25.2C - 0.7C below the normal and the COOLEST IN 11 YEARS. The area west of Mackay, where a freak deluge dumped 624mm on the city in 10 hours a fortnight ago, recorded its WETTEST SUMMER EVER. Brisbane received 480mm, in the city's wettest summer since 2004. It also experienced a cooler than average summer - until the mercury soared to 40C last weekend, making it Brisbane's hottest February day in four years. The Northern Territory has endured its second or third hottest summer on record, with final figures yet to be compiled. Tasmania had an extremely dry December and January and above normal temperatures. Large areas of western NSW have moved out of drought for the first time in seven years, but more than 60 per cent of Queensland is still drought declared, despite floods affecting 80 per cent of the state. "A lot of it is a classical La Nina pattern. We consider it as being at least the strongest since 1988-89."

ARGENTINA - Heavy rain in Argentina forces thousands from their homes and causes power cuts and transport chaos. About 2,000 people are reported to have been evacuated in the province of Buenos Aires. The capital is still on alert as more rain is expected. Thousands of small businesses lost stock as the storms took them by surprise. The national weather service says rains and storms are expected until Monday. (photo)

ECUADOR - A landslide has cut off Ecuador's main export oil pipeline but the state oil firm Petroecuador says it will try to use other routes. The Sote pipeline, which can move 400,000 barrels of oil per day from the Amazon jungle to the Pacific Ocean, stopped pumping on Thursday afternoon. It pumps almost all oil extracted by Petroecuador in the jungle. Flooding and landslides killed seven people in Ecuador on Wednesday night, bringing the toll to 23 since downpours began in mid-January. (photo)

PERU - Two months of continuous torrential rains and floods have killed 16 people, left 24 missing and destroyed highways and homes since January.

PHILIPPINES - Albay disaster officials have recommended the immediate evacuation of residents living in 12 landslide-prone villages.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
VERMONT - More snow hit from Tuesday into Wednesday, putting this February in the record books. The Burlington area got more than 7 inches, making it THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD with more than 30 inches. Parts of central and southern Vermont saw up to a foot of snow.

RUSSIA - An avalanche hit a passenger train overnight injuring the driver and blocking the track in the Chelyabinsk district.

KYRGYZSTAN - An avalanche killed five people in the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan. The avalanche hit the men when they were collecting brushwood in Kyrgyzstan's eastern Issyk-Kul region near its border with China. Avalanches and mudslides are frequent occurences in the mountainous nation of five million, especially in spring when meltwater rushes down from its peaks.

CANADA - An extreme cold weather alert was extended for Toronto as the city endures its second straight day of bone-chilling temperatures. It was the eighth so far this winter. Frigid temperatures were hovering at -25C.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, February 28, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
“Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.”
Robert Frost

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/27/08 -
5.2 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - After months of watching and waiting lava has now destroyed at least two abandoned homes on the Big Island. The fiery flow could soon cover the only road in and out for the two remaining residents of Royal Gardens. The two occupied homes aren't in any immediate danger but the threat of getting trapped in the subdivision got one resident out of bed in the middle of the night. On Tuesday the lava had traveled about two-thirds of the way downslope through the subdivision.

INDONESIA - Indonesia plans to set aside an additional 700 billion rupiah ($77 million) to compensate thousands more people whose homes are threatened by a mud volcano in East Java province. Thousands of homes and factories have already been submerged by the hot mud since it first started to erupt in May 2006, forcing about 15,000 people to abandon their homes. "There are about three other villages near the mudflow that have to be relocated, because those areas are in danger." The three villages - Kedungcangkring, Pejarakan, and Besuki - are home to around 10,000 people.

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - Seismologists have warned that Padang, which lies near the colliding Indo-Australian and Eurasian tectonic plates, is most at risk from a final segment along the zone shifting to unleash a massive amount of energy. The zone's other segments have already cracked, including a large portion off Aceh, at the tip of Sumatra, which triggered the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In the last week alone, quakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 have hit off Sumatra, while in September 2007, the island's Bengkulu province was badly damaged in an 8.4-magnitude quake that killed 23 people - each quake piling more pressure onto a stretch that must finally snap. "A lot of strained energy is still accumulated near the Mentawai islands." Measures and infrastructure to protect Padang's 900,000 residents from the fall-out, notably a tsunami, are being installed at a snail's pace. Evacuation shelters exist only on paper, roads are yet to be widened to provide escape routes, cash is in short supply and only some residents have been educated about the dangers.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Persistent heavy rain has left 45 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands in the Philippines. Ten additional deaths were reported in six provinces in the eastern Bicol region, from the 35 already reported last week, while 31 people were reported injured. Landslides and floodings have affected 137 towns in the Philippines since last week, and have displaced some 873,000 residents who sought shelter in evacuation camps. Weather forecasters say more flooding was expected in the coming days.

INDONESIA - Three houses collapsed and an eight month old baby killed when a landslide hit Danyon village.

AUSTRALIA - Extreme weather patterns have hit Australia with tropical cyclones, snow and heatwaves this month — but the weirdness was set to continue with an active monsoonal trough over north Queensland and a storm front heading for Sydney. Thunderstorms and heavy rain lashed Sydney, the NSW south coast and parts of the state's inland. The storm dumped more than 100mm of rain over one hour in what the Bureau of Meteorology described as a "ONE IN 20-YEAR EVENT". The continuing La Nina pattern has brought above-average rains and cooler temperatures this summer. But that pattern has been twisted to extremes over eastern Australia, with cyclone activity and flooding over Rockhampton and Mackay in Queensland, as well as a cold front in Tasmania that brought snow on the weekend. West Australians meanwhile are sweltering under a heatwave that saw temperatures soar over 35 degrees in recent days. "Thunderstorms are pretty common at this time of the year, but we're seeing all sorts of other things too."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
VIETNAM - Northern provinces will suffer another spell of cold weather and unseasonal rain throughout the next few days. Cold weather Tuesday spread to most provinces in the north-east of Vietnam, as well as Thanh Hoa Province. The Gulf of Tonkin saw winds blowing at speeds of over 60 kph, causing rough seas. The cold front will spread to other areas in the northwestern and central regions. Torrential rain will shatter northern and central coastal beaches and bring winds running up to 50 kph. The cold front will linger in the northern region for three days before tapering off. During a previous cold front, which lasted 38 days and ended in mid-February, around 182,500 hectares of rice paddies were damaged and 8,200 head of cattle died.

Cold weather pushes oil to fresh records - Oil settled at RECORD HIGHS back above $100 a barrel Wednesday. US refineries are about halfway through their seasonal maintenance programmes and refinery utilisation has sunk to its lowest level for almost two years. Nymex March heating oil gained 2.97 cents to hit a RECORD $2.8150 a gallon. Tin rose 1.4 per cent to a RECORD $17,950 a ton, supported by supply interruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Declines in LME tin stocks suggest the market is tightening. Aluminium rose 2.41 per cent to $2,972 a ton as concerns about the impact of power supply problems on Chinese production grew. Silver added 3.2 per cent at $18.65 a troy ounce hitting a 27-YEAR HIGH, as investor buying has picked up following gold and platinum's RECORD-BREAKING RUNS. Spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange dipped $1.30 to $22.70 a bushel after hitting a RECORD $24 a bushel on Monday, supported by supply concerns after Kazakhstan decided to impose export tariffs to curb grain sales. The move by Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest grain exporters, follows similar export restrictions in Russia and Argentina, and should ensure further pressure on global wheat stocks, which have shrunk to the LOWEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TEXAS - Wildfire Season Far From Over, State Officials Say - The wildfire roller coaster continues in much of Texas and state fire officials say things may get worse before they get better. The rash of wildfires across the state has firefighters on constant alert. Dry conditions are expected to last through May. If that happens, the fire season will be extended into the summer months. Wildfires that dotted parts of Central Texas this week have been brought under control and the mop-up has begun, but that lull could be temporary. Quick-moving cool fronts with strong winds and numerous wind shifts, along with dry conditions, mirror what was seen in 2005 and 2006. As bad as things have been so far this year, mid-March is historically when the worst wildfires occur.

MOLDOVA - United Nations humanitarian agencies are continuing to provide emergency assistance to families in Europe’s poorest country, Moldova, which last year experienced its WORST DROUGHT IN SIX DECADES. Rainfall was so sparse last year that some regions of the small Eastern European nation experienced no rain for four consecutive months, and the overall totals for the year were 50% to 75% below average. The drought – considered the worst since 1946 – hit Moldova particularly hard because its economy is so dependent on agriculture, which provides a livelihood for two-thirds of the population of roughly 4.5 million. About 84 per cent of arable land was affected. Inflation caused the price of many basic goods and services – including gas and petrol – to soar.

SEASONAL FORECASTS -
"Average" weather predicted for Prairies - Early indications point toward average weather conditions across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest this summer. Pacific Ocean surface water temperatures along the equator are currently at their fifth-coolest levels of the past 50 years, indicating a strong La Nina weather pattern. Looking at the historical data, that La Nina pattern should weaken by the summer and ocean temperatures will return to average levels. While there is not a strong correlation between winter weather conditions and what happens during the North American growing season, U.S. corn and soybean yields are typically average to slightly below average in summers following a La Nina. Droughts are rare following a La Nina, as they typically occur when conditions shift from an El Nino to a La Nina. Worldwide, there aren't any major weather-related issues on the horizon. Current forecasts would see the jet stream moving across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest during the summer months, increasing the chances of thunderstorms. In Australia, eastern areas of the country should continue to see much needed moisture. However, western regions could use some more rainfall. There are no real weather problems in Russia or in Europe, except for Spain which is currently experiencing a drought.

AUSTRALIA / SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - A leading climatologist says it’s still too early to say whether this year’s La Niña weather pattern will reappear next summer. The current La Niña weather pattern normally “winds-down” during mid to late autumn. But they're entering autumn next week with the 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index at +20, as of February 23 - a positive sign for ongoing above-average rainfall for many areas in the eastern States. Consecutive La Niña events are fairly rare, but one US weather model – and the only one to date, but an important one – is hinting of a possible reappearance of just such a scenario. “But at this time of the year, the golden rule is: ‘It’s too early to say’. In another six or eight weeks or so, we might know the answer.” Meanwhile, there’s no sign of the present La Niña weather pattern breaking down. The prognosis for the next few months is of “much increased rainfall probabilities around coastal areas.”

SPACE WEATHER -
Arctic meteor ‘EVENT OF THE CENTURY’ - 2/17/08 - a huge fireball burst across the sky over the small Arctic village of Resolute. "This was humungous. Had there been a full moon that night, I'm sure it would have covered three quarters of it. I bet you it lasted six to eight seconds before it disappeared behind the hill on the edge of town. There were all kinds of colours bursting out of it. The tail lasted a good two hours." "When it finally went down, you could see this big white cloud in the sky that just sat there for the longest time. It was the event of the century." "The Inuit up here have been on the radio talking about it for days." The fireball may have been as big or bigger than the one that crashed onto frozen Tagish Lake in the Yukon several years ago. That yielded a cluster of rare carbonaceous chondritese - rare meteorites that contain both water and organic compounds. Scientists covet these as clues from the early solar system. The Tagish Lake fireball came toward Earth as a 100-tonne space rock. It was so big that its fiery atmospheric entry allowed scientists to calculate its orbit before it hit the Earth. The Tagish Lake space rock exploded with nearly one-tenth the atmospheric blast power of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Everybody gets so much information all day long
that they lose their common sense.
Gertrude Stein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/26/08 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

BRITAIN - Large areas of England from London to Manchester suffered tremors just before 1am last night as an earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale rumbled through. The quake is THE LARGEST SINCE 1984 in Britain. The tremor was centred approximately 4km north of Market Rasen in Lincolnshire. Something of Market Rasen's size is seen once every 30 years or so somewhere in the country, although they are more common in offshore areas. There has been no big quake in Lincolnshire since 1755. Further back in history, though, there are quite a few recorded tremors, particularly in the 12th Century. This suggests some old fault may have been reactivated. Much of the UK is still rebounding after the melting of the great block of ice that covered the country thousands of years ago. And even on a daily basis, the crust will move up and down by many millimetres as the tides roll around the island nation.

INDONESIA - The fault line that spawned the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has ruptured nearly 20 times this month, with three strong quakes in 24 hours Monday/Tuesday. The activity shows the stress the seam is under and could be a harbinger of worse to come, scientists warn. Last Wednesday, a magnitude 7.4 quake killed three people and damaged scores of houses. Since Sunday, four other events strong enough to prompt tsunami warnings have jolted the region. "They are best seen as part of a chain that began in 2004. The stability of the fault has been disturbed."

GERMANY - A small weekend earthquake in Germany rattled some homes and temporarily halted operations at a Saarland coal mine, which remained closed Monday. The Saarland mine has been blamed for dozens of small earthquakes in recent months, but after Saturday's quake, the largest yet recorded, it may not reopen. Saturday's earthquake registered 4 on the Richter magnitude scale. It was enough to collapse some chimneys and rattle pictures off of walls. The German government, which subsidizes coal mining in Germany, has decided it is cheaper to import coal than continue propping up the industry. The government had already decided to phase out coal mining, beginning in 2009, expecting operations to cease by 2018.

VOLCANOES -
MARIANA ISLANDS - The Emergency Management Office issued another volcanic haze alert after gases emitted by the Anatahan Volcano blanketed Saipan, Tinian, and Rota yesterday. Many Saipan residents didn't notice the haze as it was raining most of the day. The agency also reminded mariners to take precautionary measures due to low visibility. Anatahan Volcano has been emitting gas and steam plume since its eruption in May 2003.

HAWAII - Lava from Kilauea volcano is again threatening an all-but-abandoned subdivision on the volcano's slopes. Geologists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory say a new flow is entering the Royal Gardens subdivision. Most homes in the area have been abandoned or were destroyed in previous lava flows from the volcano that has been slowly erupting for more than 25 years. The flow has been following a path along Royal Avenue, about 450 yards from the nearest occupied house.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - Towering waves pounded the California coast Monday as authorities searched for a fisherman swept into the ocean the previous evening. From Santa Barbara south to Orange County, several others were swept into the surf, but were rescued. A 23-year-old fisherman, who was among three people fishing from rocks on the Palos Verdes peninsula on Sunday evening, disappeared after surf pushed them into the water. The other two men were able to fight the waves to crawl ashore. The waves, which could reach heights of 28 feet in some locations, were forecast to persist through Tuesday morning. Another three people walking on the Santa Barbara Harbor breakwater were knocked into the water by a huge wave Sunday. They were rescued by the harbor patrol.
Waves with faces exceeding 10 feet hammered the San Diego County coastline Sunday night and Monday morning, causing extensive sand erosion but little damage to property. The most UNUSUAL aspect of the swell was how quickly the waves increased in height. Instead of building slowly throughout Sunday, the swell went from generating 4-foot waves at 1 p.m. to producing 12-foot ones by 4:30 p.m. “It started to hit about 2 p.m. and came up much sooner than we anticipated.” San Diego's beach maintenance crews scrambled with earth-moving equipment during low tide to rebuild sand berms that help protect oceanfront parks, lifeguard stations and parking lots. At Ocean Beach pier, heavy surf damaged about 50 feet of wooden railing, pushed around cement benches and destroyed fish-cleaning stations. In some locations along California's coast, the waves reached heights of 28 feet. Lifeguards up and down the state reported rescuing dozens of surfers. They also came to the aid of fishermen and other beachgoers. By Thursday, a new swell could produce sets of 8-foot waves.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

MADAGASCAR - The death toll in Madagascar from Cyclone Ivan stood at 60 Tuesday, more than doubling the previous death toll, with another 17 missing. 147,000 are homeless.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UGANDA - Most families that were hit by the recent floods in Teso are starving. A total of 300,000 people from 50,000 households were affected by the floods that hit Teso, Lango, and some parts of Karamoja sub-region late last year. The floods also claimed 18 people. Most households have run out of food and the next harvest is many months away. During the three months of floods, the district lost property and foodstuff worth Shs 25 billion. About 80% of the harvest and livestock were destroyed.

NAMIBIA - Another Flood Wave Expected in the North - Hydrologists have warned of the possibility of loss of more human lives and destruction of agricultural and developmental infrastructure in northern Namibia with more water expected to flow in from Angola. More rains were received in the northern part of the border area. It is highly likely that there will be more water in the Cuvelai oshanas. Water levels are rising again at the flood warning stations between Engela and Okalongo. Heavy rains in neighbouring Zambia and Angola over the last month caused the Zambezi and Kunene rivers to burst their banks, resulting in flooding in the northern parts of the country and eastern Caprivi. The floodplains in the eastern parts of the Caprivi Region have started to fill up. The water level at Kongola has now reached 3.55 metres, the HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1981.

PHILIPPINES - Due to severe flooding: ground level in 5 Albay villages recedes - The ground level in five barangays in Camalig, Albay has receded by at least one meter due to heavy flooding. "Some houses in the threatened barangays have already tilted to one side." Some 100 families in Sitio Sugong in Barangay Ilawod were evacuated due to the threat of flash floods last Sunday. 45 more barangays are vulnerable to landslides. These are on top of 19 barangays that have been hit by landslides since Feb. 21 after eight days of continuous rains due the tail-end of a cold front and a low pressure area affecting the Surigao provinces.

KAZAKHSTAN hit by severe flooding. More than 12,000 people have fled their homes in Kazakhstan after rain-swollen rivers swept away houses and bridges. Spring flooding is a recurring problem across Central Asia but a sudden rise in temperatures on February 20 following weeks of severe cold has exacerbated the problem this year. One person was killed in the floods. Melt water destroyed roads and schools and killed hundreds of cattle as rivers burst their banks. A total of 2,000 houses have been destroyed.

ISRAEL - A US citizen was killed Monday afternoon in Ein Gedi in ONE OF THE FIERCEST FLOODS SEEN FOR YEARS. Staff at the Ein Gedi nature reserve in the eastern Judean desert saw the man and his wife enter the Nahal David gorge earlier in the day. The area had been hit by torrential rains, which caused the riverbed to flood. Israeli army helicopters and police were dispatched and found the woman. Thirty other travelers stranded by flash floods in another riverbed nearby were rescued without injury.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TEXAS, NEW MEXICO - Wind continued whipping across Texas on Tuesday after driving wildfires that charred hundreds of square miles. Fire officials waited for daylight Tuesday to assess the scope of the state's biggest wildfire, which had stretched across parts of three central Texas counties and could be as large as 781 square miles, or 500,000 acres. At one point Monday, that blaze moved so quickly — stoked by 50 mph wind — that flames were consuming an area the size of "a football field every minute." Three firefighters were injured in a truck accident. There were at least two dozen separate fires across the state and likely "many, many more". "We had so many fires that there is no possible way to have enough firefighting resources for that many fires. Texas had the same conditions that you might expect in Southern California with some of their Santa Ana winds. The right conditions came together. It's EXTREMELY RARE for us to see that." Some fires were likely started by wind blowing down power lines. Elsewhere, a grass fire in southeastern New Mexico raced across about 81 square miles west of Hobbs before crews got a handle on the flames.

BRITAIN - this is already THE SUNNIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD - and it isn't over yet. By the end of yesterday, the average sunshine count in England and Wales had hit 121 hours, beating 1949's record of 118. Southampton has scored most highly, with 150.3 hours so far, closing in on the record of 166 hours set in 1891, in St Helier, Jersey. It may also be the driest February for a decade depending on rainfall in the next few days. "It is VERY UNUSUAL for February and by the 20th of the month we had already experienced the fourth sunniest February on record."

Climate change is killing us. So why are we still so reluctant to quantify the deaths it has caused? It's time for a body count. Scientists are involved in programmes to measure CO2 emissions, air temperatures, sea-ice loss and the impacts on birds, rainforest trees and coral reefs. While we know that climate change-related events are killing people, yet there is no comprehensive global monitoring program to document the human lives lost due to climate change. The biggest obstacle is the sheer variety of effects it has on health. These include direct effects such as drowning in floods and complex indirect effects, such as falling crop yields which increases malnutrition and changes in the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria. The World Heath Organisation publishes the only global estimate of the number killed by climate change - about 150,000 annually. Worryingly, this estimate comes from a single modelling study in 2002, and includes only four impacts of climate change (deaths from one strain of malaria, malnutrition, diarrhoea-type diseases and flooding). It is a highly conservative first estimate and, by now, considerably out of date.

Organic fertilizers can significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions if used properly, according to a new scientific report; but unless the organic farming community works to create goals for climate protection any gains could be overwhelmed by international shipments of food products.

CHINA is building a huge network to divert water to the capital for the Beijing Olympics and that threatens the livelihoods of millions of people, a senior Chinese government official has said. He warned of social upheaval and environmental harm because of the strain put on local water supplies. "In order to preserve the quality of Beijing's water we have to close all our factories." Shaanxi and Hebei province are being required to pump clean water to Beijing in time for the Olympics. They are on the northern stretch of a much larger water transfer project designed to bring supplies from the Yangtze River in the south to thirsty northern industrial areas, including Beijing. The entire project, costing tens of billions of dollars, is due for completion by 2010, but the authorities in the capital are hoping the northern leg of the network will be ready in time for the Olympics. Experts say water demand could rise to 30% above average in the city as thousands of visitors arrive for the games. Hebei province, which lies next to Beijing and supplies most of its water, is suffering from severe drought.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis cases in parts of the former Soviet Union have reached the HIGHEST RATES EVER RECORDED GLOBALLY. One in 20 cases don't react to some drugs.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence;
then success is sure.
Mark Twain

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/25/08 -
6.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
7.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

INDONESIA - 10th quake since Sunday - An earthquake measuring 6.6 hit the Kepulauan Mentawai region near the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the third to strike the region in about 12 hours. The quake struck at 4:02 a.m. local time at a depth of 32 kilometers (20 miles). The temblor sparked panic in Bengkulu and the west of Sumatra, sending people into the streets. Tremors also rocked buildings in downtown Singapore, located 365 miles from the epicenter.
INDONESIA - Ninth quake since Sunday hits Sumatra - The latest quake measured 6.3 on the open-ended Richter scale. No damage or deaths have been reported. The temblor struck shortly after 1 a.m., local time, Tuesday (1 p.m. EST Monday) about 540 miles northwest of Jakarta, Indonesia, and 100 miles southwest of Padang on Sumatra. Indonesian officials earlier had canceled a tsunami warning triggered by a 7.2 magnitude tremor Monday and no new alert was posted. Monday's quake rocked Indonesia's Bengkulu province, and was felt in Jakarta, Singapore and several other provinces. The epicenter was about 102 miles southwest of the city of Muko-Muko in the province and about 6 miles under the seabed.
Three houses collapsed and a senior high school building was destroyed after the magnitude 7.2 earthquake rocked Mentawai Islands off Sumatra`s western coast on Monday. The quake which struck at 3.35 p.m. forced most residents living in coastal areas to evacuate for fear of a tsunami.

NEVADA - Officials trying to assess the damage of a magnitude-6.0 earthquake in the northeastern Nevada town of Wells are facing new challenges. Dozens of aftershocks are forcing government officials to reinspect buildings to determine if they are safe to be occupied. "Once we've assessed them, we have to go right back out and assess them again." Thirty-five aftershocks of 3.0 or larger, including one of magnitude 4.8, had rattled the Wells area as of Friday afternoon – a day after the quake struck at 6:16 a.m.

Scientists have discovered a new factor responsible for earthquakes that may help produce long-range forecasts. They have discovered a process of rock stretching below the Hindu Kush mountains in Afghanistan, which causes a build-up of energy below the surface. Until now, earthquakes were thought to be a result of the collisions of two tectonic plates. The process is similar to pulling a metal rod from both ends and when it is suddenly released, it causes an earthquake.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - High surf that was expected to pound Southern California with waves as high as 28 feet fizzled as the day wore on Monday, leaving surfers disappointed by less-than-epic conditions. But authorities warned that rough seas still made fishing from jetties dangerous. The 6- to 8-foot swells were still dangerous. The Manhattan Beach Pier was closed early Monday, then reopened and closed again at 4 p.m. because of high surf. In Rancho Palos Verdes, fire officials searched until shortly before noon for a missing 23-year-old man who was swept out to sea Sunday night while walking on rocks with two friends. At the time of his disappearance, waves in the area had grown to 14 feet. The search was halted Monday when the tides grew too high to safely proceed. The Coast Guard reported that it rescued more swimmers than usual this weekend from rip currents.
Observers of the elephant seal rookery north of Cambria reported that many pup seals were being swept out to sea by this weekend’s high swells. An estimated 5 percent to 10 percent of pup seals, on average, are swept away by strong waves in January and February. The peak of the southwesterly swells, which reached 17 to 19 feet, occurred Sunday afternoon and will gradually decrease by Wednesday. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Contrary to forecasts, the weather-making La Nina event in the equatorial Pacific has started showing a weakening trend with a warming anomaly rearing its head along the eastern coast of South America. This has not, however, prompted a change in forecasts for a good initial burst and progress of the Indian monsoon, which has been observed to benefit from a prevailing La Nina. The warming trend in the eastern Pacific has caused UNUSUAL RAINS over the Peruvian desert, which should normally be witnessing suppressed convection during a La Nina phase. But what should come as a relief to monsoon watchers is that the contra-indicating El Nino will take at least another year to revive. The colder than normal temperature anomalies persist at the subsurface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. “It normally takes a few seasons before these cold subsurface anomalies are replaced by warm anomalies. Some ensemble members of the forecast experiments conducted suggest that an El Nino might develop by spring of 2009 only. Strong westerly wind bursts during that time would scale up the El Nino. Winter monsoon winds might also have a bearing on the denouement.” Earlier estimates had shown that the La Nina might linger until the spring of 2009.

CHINA - A mountain landslide in China's Shaanzi Province is expected to keep more than 1,000 middle school students away from campus for a week. Cracks were first discovered in Baotaliang Mountain at Ankang City, early this month. Parts of the mountainside began collapsing and the crumbling rocks buried the road at the mountain base. From 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturday, about 10 landslides occurred within a small scale. The region's bus station also was ordered to suspend operations while experts and officials work to prevent dangers to traffic.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ILLINOIS - According to an array of weather statistics compiled by the Illinois state climatologist, it's the third-worst winter in a decade. And weird, besides. "This is SOME OF THE MOST DRAMATIC WINTER WEATHER I HAVE EVER SEEN." Super Bowl Sunday saw several inches of snow on the ground - and thunderstorms. "I have never seen that before and never believed it could happen." "It's bitterly cold, and it's snowed every week since, what, Thanksgiving? It's depressing." As of this weekend, Chicago had gotten 51 inches of snow. That's not quite as bad as the 53.4 inches in 1998-99 and 54.5 inches in 2000-01. But hey, spring is still a few weeks away. "The last couple of winters have been fairly quiet. We haven't seen winters like this in quite some time. It's a little bit more reminiscent of the winters we saw in the late '70s and early '80s." Supplies of ice-melting salt are growing short in some places because of the UNUSAUL number of snowy days. "Right now, it looks like it's just an oddity of this one winter behaving like this."

TAIWAN - Tons of fish, from carp to exotic tropical specimens, have washed up dead along 320 km of beach on Taiwan's outlying islands because of cold temperatures. About 45 tons of fish, some wild and some farmed, appeared on the tourism-dependent Penghu Island archipelago in the Taiwan Strait from February 14 following a cold snap. 10 times that amount of dead fish was still in the water, making it THE WORST MASS KILLING OFF PENGHU IN 30 YEARS. "Every beach in Penghu has been hit with fish in varying amounts. THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE." Temperatures dipped below 9 degrees Celsius for three days in early February, UNUSUALLY low for subtropical Penghu. That weather came along with snow storms in nearby China.
UPDATE - The recent massive fish die-off in outlying Penghu County was mainly caused by a cold water current from China rather than by the abnormally cold spell of the past month, as many had previously thought, a local oceanologist said over the weekend. According to him, snow melt from heavy snowstorms that hit many parts of China in late January and early February flowed into China's southeastern coastal waters, which then drifted through the seas off Penghu. The low-temperature, low-salt water flow from China impeded the Kuroshio Current, also known as the Black Stream, which usually flows around Penghu bringing warm, tropical currents northward, water temperatures in coastal Penghu consequently dropped sharply and led to a massive fish die-off in the county, which depends on the fishing industry as the backbone of its economy. In his observation, the so-called "M-type" phenomenon in socioeconomic development is also seen in meteorology, meaning that tropical regions have become ever hotter, while cold and polar regions are getting increasingly colder, just as the rich are getting richer and the poor becoming ever poorer. "And both such climatic phenomena can affect Penghu, as it is located between tropical and colder regions," and since the entire global ecosystem has changed, the so-called 30-year cycle of fishery cold disaster in Penghu could also be broken. He suggested that an efficient alarm and monitoring system be crafted to facilitate prevention of similar disasters in future.
It could take years for the industry to fully recover. And as the temperature begins to rise, the high nutrient levels in the water could cause algal blooms, which could lead to a red tide, with toxins from the algae contaminating marine life and posing a hazard to human health. The recent cold weather - UNSEEN SINCE 1978 - might have seriously affected as many as 300 fish species. The cold spell has killed more than 1,500 tonnes, or over 80%, of the fish yields in the county's net cage fish farms, with losses totaling more than US$5.75 million. If shellfish are included, the total damage is estimated to exceed 3,000 tonnes.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

A new study finds that both humans and nature are contributing to the dramatic melting of Arctic ice. Basically, it’s the combination of the two together that’s SO UNUSUAL and so important. A natural cycle of winds blowing toward the North Pole have carried warm air and clouds that trap heat. That UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN has been observed by scientists for over the past 20 years. But nature can’t account for all the warming in the Arctic. "You have to take the long term global warming trend and then add the natural variability on top of it, and combined they send you to A NEW CLIMATE STATE THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE."

FINLAND - While enjoying plenty of snow, Lapland has experienced UNUSUALLY WARM weather this winter. An abrupt change at the weekend brought a winter record of -33.7°C to Kittilä. In comparison with a normal winter, this is a rather modest record. ”In any normal winter it is typical that a reading of -40°C is recorded in some parts of Lapland.” In Muonio, the mean temperature during the first three weeks of February was around -9°C. Previously in this decade, February has only once been warmer than an average of -10°C. The mean temperature at this time last year was around -18°C, marking the coldest February of the decade. This year the weather has been exceptionally humid and the frosty spells have been short and sporadic. ”There is fog on the fells as if we were on a coastal area. I hope this is not a permanent phenomenon”. As a result of the UNUSUALLY WET weather, producing artificial snow at the ski resorts has this winter been more difficult than previously. The weather in Helsinki, meanwhile, continues stubbornly to remain above freezing, and the forecast for the early part of the week is more of the same, and the long-range predictions are that the beginning of March will be several degrees warmer than the normal average. January in Helsinki was 4.8°C warmer than usual. As a result of climate change, one has to go farther and farther north every year in order to find enough snow to ski. Grey winter days will become common, and the Finnish weather will be more and more like that in Denmark or Belgium. The number of snowy months is predicted to shorten by one and a half or even by two months a year, particularly around the beginning and the end of the winter. Heavy rains and floods will increase instead. The surface temperature in the Gulf of Finland has also risen by 0.5 to 0.8 degrees over 50 years. Needless to say, ice on the Gulf of Finland close to Helsinki is conspicuous by its absence. A pied flycatcher, which is a migratory bird, wintering mainly in Africa, was detected in Helsinki’s district of Puistola in January. The species of Southern Finland are moving to the north. Some experts in Helsinki fear that new pests and weeds are already lurking behind the southern border of the country, waiting for suitable winds to blow them across the sea.
Ice-free coastal waters in February considered EXCEPTIONAL, even in Southern Finland. Icebreakers sitting idle in Helsinki. "I cannot remember if the sea has ever before been completely free of ice in February". The experts are astonished. "True, this is quite exceptional". On an average winter there is 29 centimetres of ice in the sea areas outside Helsinki by mid-February. Even last year, there were more than ten centimetres of ice at this time of year. The ice sheet covering the sea usually reaches its maximum thickness in March.

MONGOLIA - Landlocked between Siberia (Russia) and China, Mongolia is feeling the impact of global warming more than most regions in the world. Over the past 60 years the average temperature in Mongolia has risen by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.9 degrees Celsius). In contrast, the average temperature around the world has climbed only about 1 degree Fahrenheit (about 0.6 degree Celsius) in the past century. The warmer temperatures are drying up Mongolia's grasslands, which provide food for the country's livestock. Winters have seen the most severe warming, with warmer temperatures ultimately resulting in more destructive ice. "They'll get a moderate amount of snow, but then there's a warm day and the snow melts, then a cold day again and it freezes. This builds up two inches (five centimeters) of ice, and the livestock can't get to the food. When that occurs for a month or two, you have a large number of animals dying of starvation." "Summer temperatures are not changing overall, but we are seeing an increase in continuously hot days—nine, ten days straight with temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), which is something we haven't seen before." Hundreds of thousands of herders in recent years have abandoned their nomadic herding lives for an urban existence.

TEXAS - Wildfires pop up across Texas on day of 'critical' fire danger - Firefighters across West and Central Texas battled wildfires that burned about 183,000 acres on Monday and forced the town of Robert Lee — about 1,500 people — to be evacuated. The wildfire warning was in effect because of forecasts calling for strong winds and low humidity in western and central Texas, ideal conditions for the spread of wildfires. Wildfires have burned about 100,000 acres and destroyed about 60 homes and other structures in the past month.

SOUTH CAROLINA may be experiencing ITS WORST DROUGHT IN 800 YEARS, according to some tree ring data.

SPACE WEATHER-
When Earth's shadow fell across the Moon last week the result was "rather bright." On the scale of astronomical magnitudes, "the eclipsed Moon of Feb. 20 registered -3, almost a thousand times brighter than the classic dark eclipse of Dec. 30, 1963, which followed the eruption of the Agung volcano in Indonesia...This eclipse was so bright because the stratosphere is exceptionally clear." Volcanoes can clog the stratosphere with ash and other aerosols, making lunar eclipses dark, but it has been a while since a major eruption. "The stratosphere has been clear since about 1995 after aerosols from Pinatubo's 1991 eruption settled out, and it appears to be getting more clear with each eclipse." The brightness of lunar eclipses reveal the opacity of Earth's upper atmosphere. "A clear stratosphere means plenty of undiminished sunlight heating Earth" - something climate change models must take into account.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Watching Peru's Oceans for Cholera Cues - Before 1991, no one in Peru could remember a cholera outbreak. Then, in a single day, it hit hard up and down the coast and took off from there, eventually killing thousands. That outbreak was fueled by a change in ocean temperatures. A smaller epidemic occurred in 1998. Both were linked to El Nino, the periodic and unpredictable weather disruption that leads to warmer ocean currents. Warm ocean currents encourage the growth and spread of cholera bacteria. Now some people worry that climate change could bring the scourge back to Peru. "You're now having these diseases you didn't expect to have at all. Dengue last summer hit us in Lima, and the mosquito is moving south because the weather allows them to move."

FOOD SHORTAGES -
If there is any disruption to this year’s grain harvest, the world will be facing famine in 2009. And this is not a question of third-world-countries famine, folks. Grain stores are at their LOWEST POINT SINCE THEY BEGAN MEASURING IN 1960: 53 days. Food prices are already on the rise; with grain shortages, will surely come hoarding and hyperinflation in food. If you think times are getting tough, add a real food shortage. Now it’s time to grow backyard farms (Victory Gardens) – in fact it’s not at all a bad idea. With all the non-food-grade corn being used to make ethanol, there are now reductions in food stocks of both corn and wheat. 60 Minutes recently reported that high-tech fishing in the Mediterranean has succeeded in nearly depleting the Tuna population, which is estimated to have about two years left at the present rate of depletion. Similar under-regulated over-fishing is depleting the remaining available wild salmon in the American Northwest and Canada - though the Bush Administration’s Dept. of the Interior has changed the method of counting salmon stock to include farmed salmon (you know, the stuff that has to have its gray meat dyed pink)! Voila! No shortages anymore – keep on fishing! The housing slump and crumbling stock markets are continuing to run down the cumulative net worth of the entire American population, the bundled securities pyramid scheme has forced our financial institutions so near insolvency that the Fed quietly slipped them $50 billion to shore up their solvency, and now even state and municipal bonds are going unsold at auction. In Great Britain the government just nationalized Northern Rock Bank. But how many banks can we absorb? How many retirement funds can sustain bond defaults? And how will people eat when food costs soar and the bank is closed? Buying seeds yet?

Rocketing prices for soft commodities such as tea, coffee, grains and soybeans are stoking up inflationary pressures, creating a nightmare for central bankers and consumers in the industrialised countries like Britain as well as the developing world. Coffee, cocoa, tea and grain markets are simmering near boiling point, with prices sitting at or near record levels on a combination of speculation by hedge funds and other investors, bad weather in producing countries and strong demand from China. Arabica coffee, the highest-quality bean, surged recently to a 10-YEAR HIGH of $1.6015 per pound, up more than 35% in the past year. Tea prices are also likely to jump to record levels this year, underpinned by production disruptions in Kenya. Cocoa prices in New York recently reached a 24-year high, up 45% in the past year. The price of bread and beer will likely rise further in recent months because grain crops have been hit by drought in Australia and Canada, two of the world's biggest wheat producers. Food inflation faces more upward pressure because US farmers have barely increased their sowing of cereal crops, despite record prices.
The kind of frenzied activity the global vegetable oil market is witnessing at present is UNPRECEDENTED. It is unlikely to subside anytime soon, given the too many imponderables in the market place and speculative activity that is usually associated with market uncertainty. Without doubt, the global vegetable oil market is moving on factors much beyond the mundane demand-supply fundamentals that tradition-bound traders usually watched. Rising crude prices, biofuels demand in general (and biodiesel in particular), competition from other crops for acreage, continuing government support to encourage bioenergy (US, EU), weakening dollar and overall rise in agricultural commodity prices have all combined to push the market higher. A new dimension in the form of global warming and climate change threat has been added. Taking advantage of uncertainties amid tightening market fundamentals, funds continue to play a big role in pushing prices higher and create volatility. High international vegetable oil prices are here to stay, and cannot be wished away. Prices of wheat, pulses, rice edible oils and similar essential food products have moved beyond the reach of the poor and the needy.

FINLAND's butter mountains of the 1980s have been replaced by a shortage of milk - With the increase of production costs, Finland now produces LESS MILK THAN EVER BEFORE SINCE THE 1940s. Thanks to globalisation, as cheese manufacturers switch to producing milk powder for the growing markets such as China, the so-called low-cost cheeses have all but disappeared from the shelves of Finnish grocery stores. "There is a grave shortage of milk". The milk shortage has been further aggravated by exceptional natural conditions, such as droughts in Central Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The converting of fields into bio energy production especially in Germany and North America has also hit milk production. Grocery stores will not run out of milk, but the milk shortage may cause cheese dairies to shut down. "Who would have believed this a year ago? There is a shortage of milk in Finland, Europe, and the whole world".

Monday, February 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Who could have wished for more?"
Stephen Hawking

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 7.1 quake and a 6.2, 5.0, 5.1, 5.2 in the KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/24/08 -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA 2008

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ITALY - Venice is stuck in the mud as tide plummets - Gondolas have been left stranded in mud along Venice's Grand Canal after the city witnessed ONE OF ITS LOWEST TIDES EVER. Ferry companies and private boats had to find new routes around the Italian city when the water level fell to about 30 inches below sea level, the lowest figure recorded for the past 14 years. While the long-term survival of Venice is threatened by flooding due to the rising sea level, an entire year has passed without significant high tides. "This is the season - February and March - when we normally have very low tides, but in recent years they have been lower than ever." "This phenomenon is the result of EXCEPTIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS: a combination of high pressure and prevailing winds." The level of the world's oceans has risen by 3.5 inches over the past century, while subsidence has resulted in Venice sinking nine inches into the lagoon. Water was a RECORD 80 centimetres below sea level on Monday, 2/18. Some canals were emptied down to their mud bottoms in a phenomenon that was expected to last until the weekend. The lowest level reached before Monday's record was minus 77 in 2005. In January last year Venice saw four consecutive days of low tide averaging 70 centimetres below sea level. The more common scourge of "acqua alta" (high water) reached 109 centimetres above sea level last November, while the record remains the 194 centimetres of November 1966, when much of Italy suffered catastrophic flooding. Meanwhile experts predict higher water than ever next year, according to a complex mathematical model. Venice has become increasingly vulnerable over time, suffering more than 50 significant floods between 1993 and 2002 and sinking about 23 centimetres over the course of the 20th century. (photo)

JAPAN - Winter gales raged Sunday across northeastern Japan, grounding dozens of flights and causing HUGE WAVES that flooded coastal homes, drowned one fisherman and swept an octogenarian out to sea. In Nyuzen, Toyama, a man in his 80s was swept away as he walked along a coastal road watching the dramatic waves. The Meteorological Agency issued warnings for more gales, heavy snow and high waves in the region, predicting winds of up to 90 kilometers per hour (56 miles per hour) in northern and eastern coastal Japan through late Sunday. SUDDEN HIGH WAVES jumped a breakwater in Kurobe, Toyama, damaging about 80 houses and forcing 150 families to evacuate their homes. The storm disrupted public transportation, grounding more than 100 flights.

SOUTH AFRICA - FREAK wave hits Durban beach - One man drowned and 18 others had to be rescued after being swept into the sea after a freak wave hit the main beach on Sunday. Surf-rescue helicopter were called out just after 15:19 after reports of a large number of bathers in difficulties at the beach. The helicopter crew found lifeguards and police doing cardio-pulmonary resuscitation on a man of about 40, but without success. Lifeguards had restricted bathers to wading in the surf because of rough sea conditions. It appears that, with the rising tide, a set of waves unexpectedly swamped the beach, sweeping 19 bathers wading in ankle-deep water off their feet. Lifeguards quickly pulled in most of them, apart from a few who had been swept further into the sea.

Tsunami threat rises but cash to western U.S. states is cut - When Congress passed a tsunami preparedness bill and dedicated extra funds after the killer Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, state officials thought they'd get new money to gird for potentially the biggest natural disaster to hit the United States. But the opposite happened: Western states are now getting even less money than before. That's because the federal government is diverting the cash for its own programs that are not as crucial to public safety on the West Coast. That leaves states such as Oregon and Washington frustratingly short of money to help prepare the public for when a tsunami strikes - as they have before and will again. Much of the federal tsunami money has gone toward warning buoys that would not help the West Coast in the case of the most serious tsunamis expected here. The buoys would be useful to warn Hawaii of the coming wave, but not the West Coast. New tsunami projections suggest that tsunamis likely to hit the West Coast could prove bigger than earlier estimates. The federal actions "will severely hamper our abilities to produce evacuation maps for tsunamis, assist local communities with tsunami hazard mitigation projects, and continue tsunami hazard outreach and education vital to saving lives when tsunamis occur". Geologists estimate a roughly one in seven chance that a severe earthquake and tsunami will occur along the West Coast in the next 50 years, resulting in a catastrophe that could far exceed the scale of Hurricane Katrina.

A vast lake, trapped under the ice sheet that once smothered much of North America, drained into the sea 8200 years ago, an event that cooled earth's climate for hundreds of years. As the temperature gradually rose about 10,000 years ago, ice receded, gouging out the hollows that would be called the Great Lakes. And then, around 8200 years ago, Agassiz-Ojibway lake massively drained, sending a flow of water into the Hudson Strait and into the Labrador Sea that was 15 times greater than the present discharge of the Amazon River. By some estimates, sea levels rose 14 metres as a result. The influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic reduced ocean salinity so much that this braked the transport of heat flowing from the tropics to temperate regions. Temperatures dropped by more than 3 degrees celsius in Western Europe for 200-400 years - a mini-Ice Age in itself.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
One interesting thing about the "Grinch Storm" that moved into northern California Sunday is that the radar and satellite presentation looked almost like a tropical storm moving ashore! No, it wasn't really a tropical cyclone. The waters off the California coast are in the 40s and 50s year-round (well, sometimes it cracks 60 in summer) because of the cold ocean current off the West Coast. That's why tropical cyclones don't hit the West Coast except for an extrermely rare hit in southern California during an El Nino year (when the waters are warmer than usual) ... the cold water would be the death of any storm that moved that way (and usually steering currents prevent tropical cyclones from going that way, anyway). (satellite photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Food prices rose 40% last year because of rising demand and other factors. Even middle-class, urban people in countries such as Indonesia, Yemen and Mexico are increasingly being priced out of the food market or forced to sacrifice education and healthcare. Those who have been hardest hit so far are people in developing countries who are living on 50 US cents (£0.25) a day, 80-90% of which is already being spent on food. "In some of these developing countries, prices have gone up 80% for staple food. When you see those kinds of increases, they are simply priced out of the food markets." Egypt has just widened its food rationing system after two decades and Pakistan has reintroduced ration cards after many years. China and Russia are imposing price controls, while Argentina and Vietnam are enforcing foreign sales taxes or export bans. The UN's World Food Programme's ability to mitigate the impact of rising food prices has also been hampered by a significant decrease in the past five years of supplies of "in-kind food aid" - food produced abroad and delivered to vulnerable people in emergencies. In-kind food aid peaked in 2000, when there were large surpluses and low prices for cereals. The US, the world's largest donor of food aid, has since reduced its surplus.

Sunday, February 24, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When Mt. Baker blows, asteroids strike and SARS arrives
- A humorous view of post-disaster life in Vancouver.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there is a lot of activity in Indonesia -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/23/08 -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.2 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
2/22/08 -
5.2 TONGA

NEVADA - Northeastern Nevada has been rattled by more than two dozen aftershocks since residents of Wells were struck by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake. 182 people were unable to return to their homes. Between 45 and 50 homes received varying amounts of damage, and in some cases residents do not have propane service restored. It's the aftershocks keeping people rattled — with the ground moving in waves, as one after another hits the town on the heels of the Thursday temblor.

ARIZONA - SWARM - Psychologists and earthquake experts say that following Yuma's recent spate of earthquakes and aftershocks, it's no surprise that some people feel a bit jumpy or hypersensitive to the possibility of yet another rumble. Many native and longtime Yumans have commented that they don't remember experiencing as many relatively strong quakes in such a short period of time as the current series, or "swarm," of quakes, which began Feb. 9. "One of the purposes of anxiety from a biological perspective is to put us in a heightened state of alertness so we can respond to whatever is going to occur. So when you have major events like these quakes there are many people who are going to genuinely feel they are sensing something." Over the past weeks of occasional earthquakes, there have been reports about people sensing the onset of yet another quake, which in time doesn't fully unfold. The experience then leaves people to wonder if they are simply sensitive to smaller quakes or if it's all in their minds. Experts say matters are only made worse given the fact that scientists for years have been warning this part of the world about "the big one" coming one day.
A magnitude 4.8 quake was felt in the Yuma area at 12:31 p.m. Friday, followed minutes later by a magnitude 4.4 aftershock. This swarm of quakes began Feb. 9 when an earthquake measuring 5.5 was felt in Yuma. That quake has been followed by numerous aftershocks, some striking twice in one day. Aftershock quakes have so far measured from magnitude 2.1 to 4.7. Experts with USGS said the Friday quake was likely just another aftershock related to the recent BAJA CALIFORNIA SWARM over the past several weeks. Quakes measuring 2.9 and 4.1 followed within minutes of Friday's initial temblor. A 4.7 quake in the same region was felt on Wednesday. Recent quakes have originated south of Mexicali, Baja California.

GREECE - SWARM? - An earthquake measuring 4.9 on the Richter scale struck southern Greece on Friday, the fifth significant tremor to hit the country in just over a week. The quake hit at 6.57am (local time) off the coast of Zante in the Ionian sea. It was felt across the island and in the western Peloponnese, but no victims or damage was reported. The epicentre was 235km west of the Greek capital Athens. Greece accounts for half of Europe's earthquakes and there has been an increase in seismic activity in recent days. Since February 14, the Peloponnese has been hit by three quakes measuring at least six on the Richter scale, while a 4.4-magnitude tremor was registered on Sunday near Mount Parnitha, north west of Athens. None of them caused major damage.

NEW ZEALAND - SWARM - Another earthquake was recorded near Matata in the Bay of Plenty at 2.51am on Saturday. The 3.3 magnitude quake was centred 10km north of Matata. It was 2km deep. It was the seventh small earthquake to be recorded this month to date near Matata. There is a significant swarm of quakes in the region: more than 2000 tremors have been recorded in the Matata area since the beginning of 2005. Recent quakes have all been shallow and are part of what's called an extensional process in which the East Cape and Northland are pulling apart. As a result, a crack is growing at the rate of about 1cm per year in the Bay of Plenty. But it doesn't pose any risk, as it's being filled in with pliable rock and sediment as it grows.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - A buried volcano discovered inside another volcano in Auckland has excited scientists, who say it is EXTREMELY RARE for two eruptions to have occurred at the same site in the Auckland volcanic field. Geologists found the buried volcano inside Panmure Basin - which is the mouth of a volcano that erupted about 28,000 years ago. The volcano would have been formed as a result of "fire fountaining" (where the magma spits up to the surface). The volcanic cone could be about 10,000 years old, much younger than its host, so the volcanic events would have been independent of each other. Of the 49 vents in the Auckland volcanic field, only Rangitoto was thought to have erupted twice. It is important to understand the clustering of volcanic eruptions from the Auckland volcanic field in time and space to prepare for future volcanic activity in the Auckland region.

ALASKA - The seismic alert level for Mount Veniaminof was raised from green to yellow by the Alaska Volcano Observatory on Friday after several minor bursts of ash were recorded. The ash rose only a few hundred feet above the volcano cone but could pose a hazard to low-flying aircraft in the vicinity. Sporadic increases in seismic activity have been noted at Veniaminof since Feb. 11, including bursts of tremors lasting from one to two minutes and occurring several times an hour. Several were similar to seismic activity seen during eruptions in 2005.

PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Friday started surveying two major volcanoes in Bicol for possible seismic activities. The team seeks to check Mayon Volcano in Albay and Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon for signs of abnormal activity. Alert Level 1 remains in effect over the two volcanoes, which are just 70 kilometers apart. “We’re looking if there is inflation or a deflation at the edifices of the volcanoes. If there’s inflation, that would mean unusual activity in the volcano. If it doesn’t inflate, then there’s no reason to worry." They are closely monitoring the levels of sulfur dioxide being fumed out of the Mayon Volcano to gauge the level of seismic activity beneath the volcano. The two volcanoes have not displayed abnormal activities in the last few days, but they are still on the look-out for possible lahar flows. A continuous downpour may cause lahar materials earlier deposited on the foot slopes of Mayon to come rushing down low-lying, surrounding villages. Mount Mayon Volcano is surrounded by five towns and three component cities while Mount Bulusan stretches to six towns.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ANTARCTIC GLACIERS SURGING TO OCEAN - scientists working in Antarctica have found some of the clearest evidence yet of instabilities in the ice of part of West Antarctica. If the trend continues, it could lead to a significant rise in global sea level. The new evidence comes from a group of glaciers covering an area the size of Texas, in a remote and seldom visited part of West Antarctica. The "rivers of ice" have surged sharply in speed towards the ocean. "It has been called the weak underbelly of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the reason for that is that this is the area where the bed beneath the ice sheet dips down steepest towards the interior. If there is a feedback mechanism to make the ice sheet unstable, it will be most unstable in this region." THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BE CONCERNED. Satellite measurements have shown that three huge glaciers here have been speeding up for more than a decade. The biggest of the glaciers, the Pine Island Glacier, is causing the most concern. Throughout the 1990s, according to satellite measurements, the glacier was accelerating by around 1% a year. The sensational finding this season is that it now seems to have accelerated by 7% in a single season, sending more and more ice into the ocean. The reason does not seem to be warming in the surrounding air. One possible culprit could be a deep ocean current that is channelled onto the continental shelf close to the mouth of the glacier. There is not much sea ice to protect it from the warm water, which seems to be undercutting the ice and lubricating its flow. There may be other forces at work as well. Much higher up the course of the glacier there is evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea. The risk of a major collapse of this section of the West Antarctic ice sheet should be taken seriously. "There has been the expectation that this could be a vulnerable area. Now we have the data to show that this is the area that is changing. So the two things coinciding are actually quite worrying." The big question now is whether what has been recorded is an exceptional surge or whether it heralds a major collapse of the ice. If the glacier does continue to surge and discharge most of its ice into the sea, the Pine Island Glacier alone could raise global sea level by 25cm. That might take decades or a century, but neighbouring glaciers are accelerating too and if the entire region were to lose its ice, the sea would rise by 1.5m worldwide.

CALIFORNIA - Extremely large waves are headed toward the Central Coast and are expected to arrive today. Swells ranging from 19 to 21 feet will begin arriving this morning and will continue at that height through the afternoon. The swells have the potential to be SOME OF THE BIGGEST SEEN SINCE 1990. However, the waves are coming from the southwest, so there is little offshore buoy data to verify the forecast. The big waves will be accompanied by winds of up to 50 mph and a powerful winter storm that is expected to drop as much as 2 inches of rain over the weekend. The wind and waves are not expected to be accompanied by high tides. Waves will come ashore in quick succession. That will mean very little time between waves, which can make it difficult for lifeguards to reach someone in trouble in the surf.

AUSTRALIA - Rough seas and high tides combine to create a foamy, frothy, chocolate mousse mess at Moffat Beach, Caloundra. In previous years, foam created by king tides and wild weather was clean, but recently the Coast foam has begun to develop symptoms witnessed in the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas. Studies show sewage and run-off, including motor oils, are bonding into molecules, rendering the foam sticky, smelly and dark-coloured. Oil dumped by passing ships may also be partly to blame for the state of the foam. “The foam is getting worse.” A long-time local resident said the foam at Teewah Beach appeared to be the result of an algal bloom which dissipated after the Boxing Day cyclonic conditions last year. “But it is markedly different (dirtier) from the 1970s and 1980s...I’ve lived here 50 years. I’ve played in this water, I’ve seen foam – but not this.” (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
It's back! Cyclone HONDO was 107 nmi SW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

REUNION - Tropical storm Hondo struck Reunion at about 12:00 GMT on 23 February.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FLORIDA - In Tallahassee, the 4.99 inches that fell on Thursday broke the day's long-standing RAINFALL RECORD of 3.90 inches from 1894. Tallahassee was inundated by 6.20 inches of rain into early Friday morning. With 3.51 inches of rain, Pensacola SURPASSED ITS DAILY RAINFALL RECORD of 2.28 inches from 2001.

PORTUGAL - heavy rain in Lisbon on Monday caused two deaths, five injuries and left a woman missing. A further 179 people were left homeless. Heavy rains were set to return to southern Portugal this weekend, though the Met Office are not expecting a repeat of the FREAK weather experienced earlier in the week. The flooding was THE WORST SEEN IN THE CAPITAL SINCE 1967, when hundreds of Lisbonites died as a direct result of the heavy rains. No price has been put on the damage caused as local authorities still count the cost of the surprise flooding.

SWEDEN - An overnight storm Friday battered southern Sweden with hurricane-strength winds, knocking out power to tens of thousands and causing flooding in the coastal city of Goteborg. More than 80,000 households experienced power outages after the storm, which also caused major traffic disruptions. Parts of a roof were torn off a house on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, and a passenger bus was pushed onto its side in a water-filled ditch on Sweden's west coast. Downed trees blocked more than 40 roads overnight. At least six train lines in the southern part of the country were closed as rail companies worked to clear fallen trees from the tracks. Winds off the country's southern coast reached speeds of 140 kilometers per hour (87 miles per hour). Winds of about 119 kph (74 mph) are classified as hurricane-strength. Inland, gusts of up to 114 kph (71 mph) were recorded in some places.

BRITAIN - Ferry crashes into oil platform as gales hit the Tyne on Friday. Stunned workers and anglers watched in disbelief as a DFDS ship escaped down the River Tyne. The runaway ship was torn from its moorings as FREAK winds lashed the North East. Gales reached 60mph, leading to road closures and the evacuation of a retail park at the MetroCentre. The ferry was seen floating towards South Shields. It is believed a diver was working underneath the ferry at the time and narrowly avoided being injured. A witness saw the ferry smash into an oil platform on the south side of the river. “We all thought it was the weather. I’ve worked down here a few times and I’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT.” “Due to exceptionally adverse weather conditions, strong winds enabled the King of Scandinavia to slip its mooring line and berth, causing the vessel to collide with a decommissioned oil rig. No passengers were on board at the time and no crew members were injured. The ship has now been safely towed back to a river berth.” Meanwhile, thousands of shoppers were evacuated from Gateshead’s MetroCentre when winds tore loose part of a store’s roof. Police barricaded a Gateshead road to protect drivers and pedestrians from splinters breaking off wood paneling on an apartment block. The southern stretch of Old Durham Road was closed from 2.30pm after debris falling from new flats in Blacklock Close was reported blowing across the road. Sections of the A68 in Northumberland were closed after two lorries were blown over. Both drivers suffered minor injuries. A section of the busy A19 near Seaham, County Durham, was closed when a van and trailer overturned blocking the southbound carriageway. The Met Office predicted the winds would die down over the weekend.

FIJI - The situation in Rakiraki is worsening as heavy downpour has led to flooding in the town. The situation might worsen even more at night when the high tide comes in. The Nadi Weather Office said an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud, rain and moist northwesterly winds are slow moving across Fiji.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - A major snow cyclone hitting Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk has caused the Russian city's airport to close down, disrupting air travel throughout Russia. The decision by air transportation officials to close down the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk airport was particularly detrimental to air travel as the airport serves as the gateway for most air travel to Russia's Sakhalin region.

TAJIKISTAN - Families in some of Tajikistan's most remote areas are braving food, fuel and water shortages triggered by record cold temperatures in the Central Asian nation. Tajikistan is one of the world's poorest countries, and many of its residents — urban and rural — are unable to cope with the effects of this extreme cold snap. Days-long blackouts in cities and towns have chilled residents who rely on electricity to heat their homes, putting the most vulnerable residents — as well as patients at urban hospitals — at risk. And burst pipes and frozen water mains have forced urban dwellers to collect water from unsafe sources. In rural areas, many households are selling off livestock and other prized assets to pay for needed food. More than half of rural households report members in poor health and not enough money to seek medical attention. "With the cost of food at the market skyrocketing, and dairy production hampered by the cold weather, people are forced to rely more on their own stocks. And people in rural Tajikistan depend on food that they've stored from the fall harvest, and many of these stores have been spoiled or damaged by the freeze."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - A heatwave in Queensland has put 21 people in hospital. Ambulances were called to homes across the state's southeast as temperatures rose to 40C yesterday.

KENYA - rangers and residents are struggling to control bush fires that have engulfed a third of one of the nation's best-known wildlife parks. The fire was accidentally started in a nearby village and has already destroyed large patches of the 188 sq km Lake Nakuru National Park. When the fire began, grass parched from a recent lack of rain made fertile fuel. Most famous for the hordes of flamingos that gather on its lake shore, the park in central Kenya is home to 450 species including white rhinos, giraffes and lions. Game wardens said the fire appeared to have largely spared the wildlife, although a reporter saw a charred turtle.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, February 22, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Civilization begins with order, grows with liberty, and dies with chaos.
Will Durant

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/21/08 -
5.7 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. (lots of 4.0+ aftershocks)
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.0 NEVADA (lots of 3.0+ aftershocks, one 4.0 & one 4.6)
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
6.2 SVALBARD REGION

NEVADA - The 6.0 magnitude quake that hit the Nevada city of Wells early Thursday morning left it strewn with the wreckage of older buildings. The earthquake has badly damaged the historic centre of the remote town and injured several people, but nearby mining operations were only briefly disrupted. The quake sparked small fires and cracked pipes, cutting off running water for a time. The main street dating from the late 1800s suffered the most damage as ceilings collapsed, windows broke and bricks fell. Although many of its saloons, markets and banks are no longer used, officials had talked about reviving the area. "The historic district is pretty much done for." The quake was the MOST POWERFUL TO HIT NEVADA IN 14 YEARS. The quake struck at 6:16 a.m. Eighteen aftershocks measuring magnitude 3 or greater were recorded by 11 a.m. There’s a one-in-20 chance the 6.0 quake could be a precursor of a larger event over the next few days, but the likelihood of that occurring will decrease with the passage of time. (photo links)

BAJA CALIFORNIA - After 13 days of earthquakes, the ground stayed largely still in the border region east of San Diego County Thursday. But residents were still rattled in Mexicali, a sprawling city south of the border that has felt the brunt of the temblors. From Feb. 8 through Thursday, the region suffered close to 500 quakes and aftershocks that have rippled as far as San Diego 100 miles away. Most have been so minor as to go unfelt, but four quakes have measured at least 5.0 in magnitude. The tremors have not caused major structural damage or injury, but they have disrupted life in Mexicali, the capital of Baja California and a city of 900,000. The biggest effects have been psychological. “It has everyone wondering whether something worse could happen.” Geologists said the swarm of small earthquakes is nothing out of the ordinary, as Mexicali sits near the highly active Cerro Prieto fault. But the frequency is UNUSUAL.

NORWAY - An earthquake of 6.2 magnitude, THE BIGGEST EARTHQUAKE IN NORWEGIAN HISTORY, jolted the thinly populated Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic on Wednesday night. No one was hurt by the quake and no damage has been reported in the islands, about 1,000 km (600 miles) from the North Pole. The quake occurred at sea, about 10 km (6 miles) below the surface. Svalbard registered several aftershocks, and predicted there would be more. National leaders will be in Svalbard next week for the official opening of a seed vault which will store frozen crop seeds from around the world in case crops are wiped out by a future disaster.

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - The USGS says the nearly three-and-a-half year eruption of Mount St. Helens that started in October in 2004 appears to have paused. The U.S. Geological Survey Thursday announced it is lowering the volcano’s eruption advisory level. “It seems to be taking a rest.” Since January, officials have been unable to find any evidence on ongoing eruption of volcanic rock into the crater. “All movements that we can detect are more indicative of a settling of the lava dome rather than active growth.” Because they’re not sure what the volcano’s next step will be, officials decided not to drop the levels back to normal and green, which would officially indicate the eruption is over.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
DELAWARE - For the last couple of years, at least, they have seen the formation of an early sub-tropical storm in the Atlantic that has rivaled the best of anything the hurricane season has thrown at them in recent years. In fact, nor'easters have been somewhat of a rarity this winter. Typically the standard fare for winter swell generation, this season they've had ample south swell events but very few nor'easters. Nor'easters usually bring bitterly cold, biting winds for days and perhaps one day of huge, heavy dumpers. South swells seem to offer a little broader window, plus a lot warmer weather. Normally, this time of year you can almost plan ahead which day of the week will have some surf and schedule accordingly, knowing that the rest of the week will be flat and cold. But for the last few weeks, they've been able to surf several days throughout each week, as the swell and wind clocks from south to north. This clash of warm and cold fronts cause wildly ranging temperature swings, and just as varied wave conditions. But the water isn't warming up any yet. Another aspect of the spring-like weather and the predominately south swells that they've been enjoying is the additional sand that is building up on the beach and on sandbars. Winter storms typically scour away sand from the shoreline while the more gentle summer waves serve to build the beaches back up. But without the usual weather conditions typified by the classic nor'easters, a lot of sand is building up on the sandbars. This may or may not be all that positive for local wave quality in the long run.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

Ivan - Meteorological Departments are closely monitoring the movements of Cyclone Ivan which has killed about 11 people in Madagascar and is now headed for Mozambique. However, the cyclone has now been reduced to the level of tropical storm. Ivan is expected to hit central Mozambique where accompanying rains could worsen the heaviest flooding in many years caused by torrential seasonal rains. Around 100,000 people have already been evacuated to higher ground from four main river valleys in Mozambique. There are fears that if Cyclone Ivan hits Mozambique, Malawi would also be affected, as has been the case with South-easterly winds and rainfall from Mozambique that end up affecting Malawi. Madagascar is bracing itself for another onslaught as Cyclone Hondo re-forms and heads for the island's east coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ECUADOR has extended a state of emergency to the entire nation after torrential rains triggered floods and mudslides across the country. Nearly a month of flooding has claimed at least three lives and forced thousands to flee their homes. More than 50,000 people have been affected by the flooding. A state of emergency was declared in nine provinces on 31 January, but the incessant rains have led it to be extended to cover all of the country's 24 provinces.

PHILIPPINES - At least 20 people are now known to have died in landslides and floods caused by more than a week of heavy rain. Bridges have been washed away and roads submerged in Eastern Samar province, which has been hardest hit. Heavy rain has been falling in the Philippines since 12 February, inundating rice fields and causing damage estimated at $12.2m (£6m). In Eastern Samar, tens of thousands of people were forced into temporary shelters by floods. The bad weather has now moved west to Bicol, where authorities have ordered the evacuation of 70,000 people. Many live around the Mayon volcano and officials fear more rain could trigger mudslides. More bad weather is forecast for the Philippines over the next few days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - RECORD CHILLY TEMPERATURES have sent residents in Kalgoorlie and other parts of WA reaching for the blankets. Kalgoorlie has experienced the extremes of weather over the past five days with Wednesday’s chilly 15.1C maximum and 15C on Tuesday setting a RECORD LOW FOR FEBRUARY. The previous lowest temperature in the mining town during February was 16.4 C in 1993. The mercury has taken a massive dive since Sunday when the maximum reached 41C. On Monday it was 34.6C. Kalgoorlie’s average for February is 32C. “To be as low as 15C, that’s REALLY REALLY UNUSUAL." There was some UNUSUALLY colder weather around, particularly in the Goldfields region. NUMEROUS OTHER RECORD LOWS were recorded in the Gascoyne region, Midwest and Southern Cross. Cooler winds from the southeast and extensive cloud, along with the impact of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, are blamed for the colder weather. The bureau has issued a warning to sheep farmers in the Central West and northern parts of the Central Wheat Belt about wet and windy weather and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Summary of cold weather around the world. Ice cover around the Antarctic is at its GREATEST EXTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE DATA BEGAN in 1979, 30% above average. U.S. satellite data for January shows the extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere reached ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1966, 42 years ago - and that TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN THEIR AVERAGE FOR THE WHOLE OF THE 20TH CENTURY. One of the oddest features of this great freeze is how little it was predicted. (icy photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Nutri-Foods Recalls "Organic Sesame Seeds Natural - Unhulled" Because of Possible Health Risk.
-Sherwood Brands Announces Nationwide Recall of Pokemon Branded Valentine Cards and Pops Because They May Contain Metal Fragments.

Daytime dozing may be warning sign of stroke - Older people who have significant trouble staying awake during the day have more than four times the normal risk of having a stroke.

Learning to control your anger may also speed up the healing process after surgery, US research suggests. Stress has a major impact on the body's ability to repair itself. Nearly 100 participants were asked to rate how well they could control their temper, and then the speed at which they recovered from a blister was monitored. Hotheads were more than four times likely to take more than four days to heal than mild-mannered counterparts. Whether one directed one's anger externally or internally proved to have no bearing on recovery - what was crucial was just how much control the individual was able to exert over their feelings. "Your body prioritises and sorts one thing out at a time, so if you are stressed, your body works through that before it gets on with the process of healing."

Thursday, February 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
An idea is not responsible for the people who hold it.
'Life of Brian'

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.2 quake in the SVALBARD REGION.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/20/08 -
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
7.4 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
6.2 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.5 SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

INDONESIA - Authorities were still tallying the wreckage on Simeule, but early reports said many buildings were damaged or destroyed by the 7.4 quake. At least one major bridge also collapsed. Three people were killed and more than 50 others injured. The fault line that ruptured was the same one that produced the 2004 Asian tsunami. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 391 nmi NNW of Perth, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low pressure system last night looming over the western Top End could intensify into a cyclone as early as Saturday. The low, yesterday situated about 110km south of Darwin, was expected to move west over the next few days, and there was a high possibility it could develop into a cyclone on Saturday. There was a "10 per cent or less" chance it could form today or tomorrow. But the chances of the Territory bearing the brunt of any cyclonic wild weather was "low".
Nicholas crossed the coast as a category 1 cyclone Wednesday. It has now weakened below cyclone intensity as it continues to track south over land.

MADAGASCAR - As initial assessments shed light on the extensive damage caused by Cyclone Ivan earlier this week, Madagascar is bracing itself for another onslaught as Cyclone Hondo picks up and heads for the island’s east coast. Ivan slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February, with winds of up to 210km per hour, leaving a trail of destruction on its way across the island until it slowly diminished in strength and dissipated in the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday. Ivan brought “two levels of disasters: destruction caused by the intense wind first, and now the flooding. And we can expect more - we are in the middle of cyclone season you know - Hondo is now threatening our coast.” Hondo developed into a full-blown category four tropical cyclone in the centre of the Indian Ocean at the beginning of February, but quickly lost intensity and never threatened to make landfall. But Hondo is making a comeback. “Hondo is now 1,600km from our east coast. It does not affect the weather yet, but we must be alert to its evolution.” On Sainte Marie, a 60km long island off Madagascar’s northeast coast, which bore the brunt of cyclone Ivan, “75 percent of the houses have been destroyed." Over 8,000 were left without shelter and two people died. An additional nine victims are thought to be buried under the rubble of a collapsed hotel. “The cyclone damaged road infrastructure and houses and blew down trees. In many parts of the country, especially the northeast, the electricity is cut off and rivers are reported to have begun flooding." Concerns have also been raised over food security after large areas of rice fields were flooded in the Ambatondrazaka region, where most of Madagascar’s rice, the staple food, is grown. The cyclone season was overlapping with the lean season between harvests, and the precarious food security situation was worrying. “After the passage of the cyclones, many people lose their harvest. This situation would likely cause a severe deterioration of the situation in the coming months.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / WINDS / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CANADA - Heavy rain and melting snow are causing water woes across the Atlantic region, closing roads and disrupting water supplies. There's a state of emergency Wednesday in the community of Heart's Content on Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula, where heavy rain has caused water-line problems. Residents are currently without water and when they do get back online, they'll be under a boil order due to concerns with the chlorination system. In Nova Scotia, flooding closed a half-dozen roads in Lunenburg County Wednesday.

KUWAIT - Another FREAK DUST-STORM disrupting life, traffic at three ports, airport - A blinding dust storm hit Kuwait on Tuesday, forcing the closure of three ports and disrupting air traffic. Winds blowing at a speed of up to 40 kms (25 miles) an hour caused the storm, the second in four days in this desert nation, reducing visibility to below 300 metres (yards) at Kuwait airport. Incoming planes were facing difficulty landing. The meteorological department is forecasting the dust storm will continue until Friday. Kuwait has virtually had no rain this winter which makes desert sand loose and easily carried by strong northwesterly winds. Dust storms are RARE in winter but are common in summer when the temperature reaches 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). The current dusty weather was attributed to the scarcity of rain and fast blowing winds. 'A long spell of dryness has affected sand particles and they are now easily being carried by speeding winds.' This year is the third driest year since 1957 with only 33.7 millimeters rain to date. The region is undergoing an extreme climate cycle which occurs every 14 to 18 years. The cycle is influenced by sun rays which affect the atmosphere, amount of vapor and heat which are the main factors contributing towards rainfall and the change in seasons across the world. 'Pollution has also contributed to the extremeness of weather conditions.'

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
INDIA - in Jammu and Kashmir nearly 30 people, including several army men, lost their lives to avalanches triggered by continuous heavy snowfall early this month. In worst-hit Kapran, Verinag and Dooru areas of Anantnag district in south Kashmir, about 200 people were rescued, while 12 people were killed in avalanches and blizzards that struck these areas in the first week of February. The high-altitude areas of Kapran, Verinag and Waltango in Dooru assembly constituency were also the worst hit when 290 people died in a series of avalanches in April 2005.

RUSSIA - An avalanche has ruined the office of the Zamarag hydropower plant and killed two people. One person is missing. Avalanches keep coming down on the trans-Caucasian highway. Their precise number is unknown, as visibility is nil and it has been snowing for two days.

NORTH DAKOTA - Frigid arctic air coming down from Canada BROKE RECORDS in eastern North Dakota on Wednesday, including one that had stood for more than a century. The temperature dropped to minus 33 degrees at the Grand Forks airport Wednesday morning, breaking the record for the date of minus 29 set in 1956. Devils Lake hit 34 degrees below zero, breaking that city's record for the date of 30 below set in 1939. Fargo broke a record that had stood for 119 years, with 31 below. The record had been 30 below set in 1889. "High pressure overhead, fresh snow, light winds, it made for ideal conditions for a nice, cold night."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRITAIN - February has seen extremes of temperature, from icy sub-zero lows to a near-record high. There can have been few Februaries like it. Britons could have been forgiven for thinking they lived in two different countries in the past week, with unseasonable warmth followed by extreme sub-zero temperatures within a few days. The Met Office reported temperatures ranging from icy sub-zero lows to a near-record-breaking 18.2C high in what it described as "A WEEK OF DRAMATIC CONTRASTS". The weekend saw the coldest snap, with temperatures plummeting to -9C in northern parts of the country, creating frost and fog. But earlier in the week, people in western regions were donning T-shirts in disbelief at the almost summer-like warmth. And in Trawschoed, Wales, a temperature of 18.2C was recorded. On only three occasions since 1960 has it been hotter. "These temperatures are VERY RARE in February. The average daily maximum temperature for February is 6.3C, so these are almost record-breaking." Spring flowers which had BLOOMED AT RECORD EARLY DATES were thwarted by the sudden cold snap. These highly fluctuating temperatures may cause confusion but they stem from the same weather pattern. And the changeable weather is not over yet.

CHILE - One of Chile's WORST DROUGHTS IN 50 YEARS has parched farms and drained local water supplies, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency in 30 municipalities on Wednesday. More than a quarter of the country's 345 municipalities have faced urgent water shortages in recent weeks, pushing the government to spend more than $13 million to tap underground water deposits and send cistern trucks to water livestock and crops. The eight-month-long drought will "inevitably trigger price hikes on some produce." Water shortages are also threatening electricity supply, as Chile relies on hydroelectric power for 60 percent of its energy.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

THE LARGEST MEAT RECALL IN U.S. HISTORY - Lawmakers and government investigators seized on the recall to set the table for changes in the nation's food-safety system, especially as it applies to school lunches.

PARAGUAY - Thousands of people in Paraguay have been queuing for vaccines against yellow fever, after THE FIRST OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE IN 30 YEARS. At least four people have died, and the government declared a state of emergency last week. At least 13 people are thought to have died in an outbreak of the disease in neighbouring Brazil. Another health alert was declared in Paraguay last month amid a suspected outbreak of dengue fever.

A detailed map highlighting the world's hotspots for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has been released. It uses data spanning 65 years and shows the majority of these new diseases come from wildlife. Scientists say conservation efforts that reduce conflicts between humans and animals could play a key role in limiting future outbreaks. The number of events that originated from wild animals has increased significantly over time. "We are crowding wildlife into ever smaller areas, and human population is increasing. Where those two things meet, that is the recipe for something crossing over." The main hotspots were located in low latitude regions, like South Asia and South-East Asia. "The world's public health resources are misallocated. Most are focused on richer countries that can afford surveillance, but most of the hotspots are in developing countries."

CROP FAILURE / FOOD SHORTAGES -
GOOD CROPS -
INDIA - OILSEEDS - In November, the country was in the process of harvesting a RECORD soyabean crop, while there was a rebound in the groundnut crop. Aided by an improved southwest monsoon performance that helped soyabean and groundnut crops, the output of major cultivated oilseeds during the ongoing kharif 2007 season is seen 25 per cent higher from last year. As a result, indigenous vegetable oil production is expected to show an increase during oil year 2007-08.

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VEGETABLE OIL - A STARTLING CHANGE IS UNFOLDING IN THE WORLD'S FOOD MARKETS. Rising prices for cooking oil in India are forcing residents of Mumbai to ration every drop. Bakeries in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs. And in Malaysia, brand-new factories built to convert vegetable oil into diesel for trucks sit idle, their owners unable to afford the raw material. This is the other oil shock. Shortages and soaring prices for palm oil, soybean oil and many other types of vegetable oils are the latest, most striking example of a developing global problem: costly food. The Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its index of export prices for 60 internationally traded foodstuffs climbed 37% last year. That was on top of a 14 percent increase in 2006, and the trend has accelerated in the past few weeks. In some poor countries, desperation is taking hold. Just in one week, there have been protests in Pakistan over wheat shortages and in Indonesia over soybean shortages. Egypt has banned rice exports to keep food at home, and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen. A STARTLInG CHANGE IS UNFOLDING IN THE WORLD'S FOOD MARKETS. Soaring fuel prices have altered the equation for growing food and transporting it across the globe. Huge demand for biofuels has created tension between using land to produce fuel and using it for food. And all this is happening even as global climate change may be starting to make it harder to grow food in some of the places best equipped to do so. Food experts say steep increases in commodity prices have not fully made their way to street stalls in the developing world or supermarkets in the West. Biofuels accounted for almost half the increase in worldwide demand for vegetable oils last year, and represented 7 percent of total consumption of the oils.

OILSEEDS, FRUIT, VEGETABLES, LIVESTOCK - CHINA - Winter storms have heaped woes on central, south and southwest China since mid-January, leading to widespread traffic jams, blackouts and crop losses. Official figures till Feb 14 show 10.5 million hectares of crops in 20 provinces and autonomous regions, or about 7.5% of the country's total plantation acreage, have been affected by the snow disaster. The blizzards have also killed 4 million pigs, 393,000 cows, 1.38 million sheep and 63