Friday, February 29, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Competence, like truth, beauty and contact lenses,
is in the eye of the beholder.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/28/08 -
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

BRITAIN - Thousands of homes were rocked by the country's biggest earthquake in 24 years on Wednesday. This link has people's experiences of Wednesday's earthquakes - from babies being born to cracks appearing in houses, plus the seismogram of the quake and photos.

VOLCANOES -
MICRONESIA - residents are complaining of a foul smell in the air with hazy skies throughout Thursday evening. The conditions are being caused by low concentrations of sulfur gas as a result of a gas and steam plume being emitted by the Anatahan volcano, affecting most of the Micronesia region. Northerly wind gusts have carried the smell and haze to Guam and the Marianas. A Volcanic Haze and Sulfur Advisory has been issued for Saipan and Tinian; Rota and Guam are not impacted so severely as to call for an advisory at this time. The smell is projected to persist until sometime this afternoon.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 20P was 441 nmi ESE of Townsville, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Coastal and island communities between Kalumburu and Port Keats are being urged to prepare for a possible cyclone, following the development of a tropical low between the WA and Northern Territory border. The bureau had said there was a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing today. Gales are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - THE STRONGEST LA NINA WEATHER SYSTEM IN TWO DECADES to hit Australia delivered SOME OF THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE SUMMER WEATHER IN YEARS and gave hope to drought-stricken farmers. While much of southern Australia experienced average or little rainfall, Queensland and New South Wales had torrential rain and flooding. And as parts of the nation sweltered, others experienced their COOLEST SUMMER IN YEARS. "It's the first time for some years that we've had a significantly wetter summer than usual." NSW had its WETTEST SUMMER IN 16 YEARS, with Coonamble recording its SOGGIEST ON RECORD. Sydney recorded 422mm of rain, well above its summer average of 298mm, while its average maximum temperature was 25.2C - 0.7C below the normal and the COOLEST IN 11 YEARS. The area west of Mackay, where a freak deluge dumped 624mm on the city in 10 hours a fortnight ago, recorded its WETTEST SUMMER EVER. Brisbane received 480mm, in the city's wettest summer since 2004. It also experienced a cooler than average summer - until the mercury soared to 40C last weekend, making it Brisbane's hottest February day in four years. The Northern Territory has endured its second or third hottest summer on record, with final figures yet to be compiled. Tasmania had an extremely dry December and January and above normal temperatures. Large areas of western NSW have moved out of drought for the first time in seven years, but more than 60 per cent of Queensland is still drought declared, despite floods affecting 80 per cent of the state. "A lot of it is a classical La Nina pattern. We consider it as being at least the strongest since 1988-89."

ARGENTINA - Heavy rain in Argentina forces thousands from their homes and causes power cuts and transport chaos. About 2,000 people are reported to have been evacuated in the province of Buenos Aires. The capital is still on alert as more rain is expected. Thousands of small businesses lost stock as the storms took them by surprise. The national weather service says rains and storms are expected until Monday. (photo)

ECUADOR - A landslide has cut off Ecuador's main export oil pipeline but the state oil firm Petroecuador says it will try to use other routes. The Sote pipeline, which can move 400,000 barrels of oil per day from the Amazon jungle to the Pacific Ocean, stopped pumping on Thursday afternoon. It pumps almost all oil extracted by Petroecuador in the jungle. Flooding and landslides killed seven people in Ecuador on Wednesday night, bringing the toll to 23 since downpours began in mid-January. (photo)

PERU - Two months of continuous torrential rains and floods have killed 16 people, left 24 missing and destroyed highways and homes since January.

PHILIPPINES - Albay disaster officials have recommended the immediate evacuation of residents living in 12 landslide-prone villages.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
VERMONT - More snow hit from Tuesday into Wednesday, putting this February in the record books. The Burlington area got more than 7 inches, making it THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD with more than 30 inches. Parts of central and southern Vermont saw up to a foot of snow.

RUSSIA - An avalanche hit a passenger train overnight injuring the driver and blocking the track in the Chelyabinsk district.

KYRGYZSTAN - An avalanche killed five people in the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan. The avalanche hit the men when they were collecting brushwood in Kyrgyzstan's eastern Issyk-Kul region near its border with China. Avalanches and mudslides are frequent occurences in the mountainous nation of five million, especially in spring when meltwater rushes down from its peaks.

CANADA - An extreme cold weather alert was extended for Toronto as the city endures its second straight day of bone-chilling temperatures. It was the eighth so far this winter. Frigid temperatures were hovering at -25C.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, February 28, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
“Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.”
Robert Frost

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/27/08 -
5.2 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - After months of watching and waiting lava has now destroyed at least two abandoned homes on the Big Island. The fiery flow could soon cover the only road in and out for the two remaining residents of Royal Gardens. The two occupied homes aren't in any immediate danger but the threat of getting trapped in the subdivision got one resident out of bed in the middle of the night. On Tuesday the lava had traveled about two-thirds of the way downslope through the subdivision.

INDONESIA - Indonesia plans to set aside an additional 700 billion rupiah ($77 million) to compensate thousands more people whose homes are threatened by a mud volcano in East Java province. Thousands of homes and factories have already been submerged by the hot mud since it first started to erupt in May 2006, forcing about 15,000 people to abandon their homes. "There are about three other villages near the mudflow that have to be relocated, because those areas are in danger." The three villages - Kedungcangkring, Pejarakan, and Besuki - are home to around 10,000 people.

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - Seismologists have warned that Padang, which lies near the colliding Indo-Australian and Eurasian tectonic plates, is most at risk from a final segment along the zone shifting to unleash a massive amount of energy. The zone's other segments have already cracked, including a large portion off Aceh, at the tip of Sumatra, which triggered the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In the last week alone, quakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 have hit off Sumatra, while in September 2007, the island's Bengkulu province was badly damaged in an 8.4-magnitude quake that killed 23 people - each quake piling more pressure onto a stretch that must finally snap. "A lot of strained energy is still accumulated near the Mentawai islands." Measures and infrastructure to protect Padang's 900,000 residents from the fall-out, notably a tsunami, are being installed at a snail's pace. Evacuation shelters exist only on paper, roads are yet to be widened to provide escape routes, cash is in short supply and only some residents have been educated about the dangers.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Persistent heavy rain has left 45 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands in the Philippines. Ten additional deaths were reported in six provinces in the eastern Bicol region, from the 35 already reported last week, while 31 people were reported injured. Landslides and floodings have affected 137 towns in the Philippines since last week, and have displaced some 873,000 residents who sought shelter in evacuation camps. Weather forecasters say more flooding was expected in the coming days.

INDONESIA - Three houses collapsed and an eight month old baby killed when a landslide hit Danyon village.

AUSTRALIA - Extreme weather patterns have hit Australia with tropical cyclones, snow and heatwaves this month — but the weirdness was set to continue with an active monsoonal trough over north Queensland and a storm front heading for Sydney. Thunderstorms and heavy rain lashed Sydney, the NSW south coast and parts of the state's inland. The storm dumped more than 100mm of rain over one hour in what the Bureau of Meteorology described as a "ONE IN 20-YEAR EVENT". The continuing La Nina pattern has brought above-average rains and cooler temperatures this summer. But that pattern has been twisted to extremes over eastern Australia, with cyclone activity and flooding over Rockhampton and Mackay in Queensland, as well as a cold front in Tasmania that brought snow on the weekend. West Australians meanwhile are sweltering under a heatwave that saw temperatures soar over 35 degrees in recent days. "Thunderstorms are pretty common at this time of the year, but we're seeing all sorts of other things too."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
VIETNAM - Northern provinces will suffer another spell of cold weather and unseasonal rain throughout the next few days. Cold weather Tuesday spread to most provinces in the north-east of Vietnam, as well as Thanh Hoa Province. The Gulf of Tonkin saw winds blowing at speeds of over 60 kph, causing rough seas. The cold front will spread to other areas in the northwestern and central regions. Torrential rain will shatter northern and central coastal beaches and bring winds running up to 50 kph. The cold front will linger in the northern region for three days before tapering off. During a previous cold front, which lasted 38 days and ended in mid-February, around 182,500 hectares of rice paddies were damaged and 8,200 head of cattle died.

Cold weather pushes oil to fresh records - Oil settled at RECORD HIGHS back above $100 a barrel Wednesday. US refineries are about halfway through their seasonal maintenance programmes and refinery utilisation has sunk to its lowest level for almost two years. Nymex March heating oil gained 2.97 cents to hit a RECORD $2.8150 a gallon. Tin rose 1.4 per cent to a RECORD $17,950 a ton, supported by supply interruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Declines in LME tin stocks suggest the market is tightening. Aluminium rose 2.41 per cent to $2,972 a ton as concerns about the impact of power supply problems on Chinese production grew. Silver added 3.2 per cent at $18.65 a troy ounce hitting a 27-YEAR HIGH, as investor buying has picked up following gold and platinum's RECORD-BREAKING RUNS. Spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange dipped $1.30 to $22.70 a bushel after hitting a RECORD $24 a bushel on Monday, supported by supply concerns after Kazakhstan decided to impose export tariffs to curb grain sales. The move by Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest grain exporters, follows similar export restrictions in Russia and Argentina, and should ensure further pressure on global wheat stocks, which have shrunk to the LOWEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TEXAS - Wildfire Season Far From Over, State Officials Say - The wildfire roller coaster continues in much of Texas and state fire officials say things may get worse before they get better. The rash of wildfires across the state has firefighters on constant alert. Dry conditions are expected to last through May. If that happens, the fire season will be extended into the summer months. Wildfires that dotted parts of Central Texas this week have been brought under control and the mop-up has begun, but that lull could be temporary. Quick-moving cool fronts with strong winds and numerous wind shifts, along with dry conditions, mirror what was seen in 2005 and 2006. As bad as things have been so far this year, mid-March is historically when the worst wildfires occur.

MOLDOVA - United Nations humanitarian agencies are continuing to provide emergency assistance to families in Europe’s poorest country, Moldova, which last year experienced its WORST DROUGHT IN SIX DECADES. Rainfall was so sparse last year that some regions of the small Eastern European nation experienced no rain for four consecutive months, and the overall totals for the year were 50% to 75% below average. The drought – considered the worst since 1946 – hit Moldova particularly hard because its economy is so dependent on agriculture, which provides a livelihood for two-thirds of the population of roughly 4.5 million. About 84 per cent of arable land was affected. Inflation caused the price of many basic goods and services – including gas and petrol – to soar.

SEASONAL FORECASTS -
"Average" weather predicted for Prairies - Early indications point toward average weather conditions across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest this summer. Pacific Ocean surface water temperatures along the equator are currently at their fifth-coolest levels of the past 50 years, indicating a strong La Nina weather pattern. Looking at the historical data, that La Nina pattern should weaken by the summer and ocean temperatures will return to average levels. While there is not a strong correlation between winter weather conditions and what happens during the North American growing season, U.S. corn and soybean yields are typically average to slightly below average in summers following a La Nina. Droughts are rare following a La Nina, as they typically occur when conditions shift from an El Nino to a La Nina. Worldwide, there aren't any major weather-related issues on the horizon. Current forecasts would see the jet stream moving across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest during the summer months, increasing the chances of thunderstorms. In Australia, eastern areas of the country should continue to see much needed moisture. However, western regions could use some more rainfall. There are no real weather problems in Russia or in Europe, except for Spain which is currently experiencing a drought.

AUSTRALIA / SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - A leading climatologist says it’s still too early to say whether this year’s La Niña weather pattern will reappear next summer. The current La Niña weather pattern normally “winds-down” during mid to late autumn. But they're entering autumn next week with the 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index at +20, as of February 23 - a positive sign for ongoing above-average rainfall for many areas in the eastern States. Consecutive La Niña events are fairly rare, but one US weather model – and the only one to date, but an important one – is hinting of a possible reappearance of just such a scenario. “But at this time of the year, the golden rule is: ‘It’s too early to say’. In another six or eight weeks or so, we might know the answer.” Meanwhile, there’s no sign of the present La Niña weather pattern breaking down. The prognosis for the next few months is of “much increased rainfall probabilities around coastal areas.”

SPACE WEATHER -
Arctic meteor ‘EVENT OF THE CENTURY’ - 2/17/08 - a huge fireball burst across the sky over the small Arctic village of Resolute. "This was humungous. Had there been a full moon that night, I'm sure it would have covered three quarters of it. I bet you it lasted six to eight seconds before it disappeared behind the hill on the edge of town. There were all kinds of colours bursting out of it. The tail lasted a good two hours." "When it finally went down, you could see this big white cloud in the sky that just sat there for the longest time. It was the event of the century." "The Inuit up here have been on the radio talking about it for days." The fireball may have been as big or bigger than the one that crashed onto frozen Tagish Lake in the Yukon several years ago. That yielded a cluster of rare carbonaceous chondritese - rare meteorites that contain both water and organic compounds. Scientists covet these as clues from the early solar system. The Tagish Lake fireball came toward Earth as a 100-tonne space rock. It was so big that its fiery atmospheric entry allowed scientists to calculate its orbit before it hit the Earth. The Tagish Lake space rock exploded with nearly one-tenth the atmospheric blast power of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Everybody gets so much information all day long
that they lose their common sense.
Gertrude Stein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/26/08 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

BRITAIN - Large areas of England from London to Manchester suffered tremors just before 1am last night as an earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale rumbled through. The quake is THE LARGEST SINCE 1984 in Britain. The tremor was centred approximately 4km north of Market Rasen in Lincolnshire. Something of Market Rasen's size is seen once every 30 years or so somewhere in the country, although they are more common in offshore areas. There has been no big quake in Lincolnshire since 1755. Further back in history, though, there are quite a few recorded tremors, particularly in the 12th Century. This suggests some old fault may have been reactivated. Much of the UK is still rebounding after the melting of the great block of ice that covered the country thousands of years ago. And even on a daily basis, the crust will move up and down by many millimetres as the tides roll around the island nation.

INDONESIA - The fault line that spawned the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has ruptured nearly 20 times this month, with three strong quakes in 24 hours Monday/Tuesday. The activity shows the stress the seam is under and could be a harbinger of worse to come, scientists warn. Last Wednesday, a magnitude 7.4 quake killed three people and damaged scores of houses. Since Sunday, four other events strong enough to prompt tsunami warnings have jolted the region. "They are best seen as part of a chain that began in 2004. The stability of the fault has been disturbed."

GERMANY - A small weekend earthquake in Germany rattled some homes and temporarily halted operations at a Saarland coal mine, which remained closed Monday. The Saarland mine has been blamed for dozens of small earthquakes in recent months, but after Saturday's quake, the largest yet recorded, it may not reopen. Saturday's earthquake registered 4 on the Richter magnitude scale. It was enough to collapse some chimneys and rattle pictures off of walls. The German government, which subsidizes coal mining in Germany, has decided it is cheaper to import coal than continue propping up the industry. The government had already decided to phase out coal mining, beginning in 2009, expecting operations to cease by 2018.

VOLCANOES -
MARIANA ISLANDS - The Emergency Management Office issued another volcanic haze alert after gases emitted by the Anatahan Volcano blanketed Saipan, Tinian, and Rota yesterday. Many Saipan residents didn't notice the haze as it was raining most of the day. The agency also reminded mariners to take precautionary measures due to low visibility. Anatahan Volcano has been emitting gas and steam plume since its eruption in May 2003.

HAWAII - Lava from Kilauea volcano is again threatening an all-but-abandoned subdivision on the volcano's slopes. Geologists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory say a new flow is entering the Royal Gardens subdivision. Most homes in the area have been abandoned or were destroyed in previous lava flows from the volcano that has been slowly erupting for more than 25 years. The flow has been following a path along Royal Avenue, about 450 yards from the nearest occupied house.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - Towering waves pounded the California coast Monday as authorities searched for a fisherman swept into the ocean the previous evening. From Santa Barbara south to Orange County, several others were swept into the surf, but were rescued. A 23-year-old fisherman, who was among three people fishing from rocks on the Palos Verdes peninsula on Sunday evening, disappeared after surf pushed them into the water. The other two men were able to fight the waves to crawl ashore. The waves, which could reach heights of 28 feet in some locations, were forecast to persist through Tuesday morning. Another three people walking on the Santa Barbara Harbor breakwater were knocked into the water by a huge wave Sunday. They were rescued by the harbor patrol.
Waves with faces exceeding 10 feet hammered the San Diego County coastline Sunday night and Monday morning, causing extensive sand erosion but little damage to property. The most UNUSUAL aspect of the swell was how quickly the waves increased in height. Instead of building slowly throughout Sunday, the swell went from generating 4-foot waves at 1 p.m. to producing 12-foot ones by 4:30 p.m. “It started to hit about 2 p.m. and came up much sooner than we anticipated.” San Diego's beach maintenance crews scrambled with earth-moving equipment during low tide to rebuild sand berms that help protect oceanfront parks, lifeguard stations and parking lots. At Ocean Beach pier, heavy surf damaged about 50 feet of wooden railing, pushed around cement benches and destroyed fish-cleaning stations. In some locations along California's coast, the waves reached heights of 28 feet. Lifeguards up and down the state reported rescuing dozens of surfers. They also came to the aid of fishermen and other beachgoers. By Thursday, a new swell could produce sets of 8-foot waves.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

MADAGASCAR - The death toll in Madagascar from Cyclone Ivan stood at 60 Tuesday, more than doubling the previous death toll, with another 17 missing. 147,000 are homeless.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UGANDA - Most families that were hit by the recent floods in Teso are starving. A total of 300,000 people from 50,000 households were affected by the floods that hit Teso, Lango, and some parts of Karamoja sub-region late last year. The floods also claimed 18 people. Most households have run out of food and the next harvest is many months away. During the three months of floods, the district lost property and foodstuff worth Shs 25 billion. About 80% of the harvest and livestock were destroyed.

NAMIBIA - Another Flood Wave Expected in the North - Hydrologists have warned of the possibility of loss of more human lives and destruction of agricultural and developmental infrastructure in northern Namibia with more water expected to flow in from Angola. More rains were received in the northern part of the border area. It is highly likely that there will be more water in the Cuvelai oshanas. Water levels are rising again at the flood warning stations between Engela and Okalongo. Heavy rains in neighbouring Zambia and Angola over the last month caused the Zambezi and Kunene rivers to burst their banks, resulting in flooding in the northern parts of the country and eastern Caprivi. The floodplains in the eastern parts of the Caprivi Region have started to fill up. The water level at Kongola has now reached 3.55 metres, the HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1981.

PHILIPPINES - Due to severe flooding: ground level in 5 Albay villages recedes - The ground level in five barangays in Camalig, Albay has receded by at least one meter due to heavy flooding. "Some houses in the threatened barangays have already tilted to one side." Some 100 families in Sitio Sugong in Barangay Ilawod were evacuated due to the threat of flash floods last Sunday. 45 more barangays are vulnerable to landslides. These are on top of 19 barangays that have been hit by landslides since Feb. 21 after eight days of continuous rains due the tail-end of a cold front and a low pressure area affecting the Surigao provinces.

KAZAKHSTAN hit by severe flooding. More than 12,000 people have fled their homes in Kazakhstan after rain-swollen rivers swept away houses and bridges. Spring flooding is a recurring problem across Central Asia but a sudden rise in temperatures on February 20 following weeks of severe cold has exacerbated the problem this year. One person was killed in the floods. Melt water destroyed roads and schools and killed hundreds of cattle as rivers burst their banks. A total of 2,000 houses have been destroyed.

ISRAEL - A US citizen was killed Monday afternoon in Ein Gedi in ONE OF THE FIERCEST FLOODS SEEN FOR YEARS. Staff at the Ein Gedi nature reserve in the eastern Judean desert saw the man and his wife enter the Nahal David gorge earlier in the day. The area had been hit by torrential rains, which caused the riverbed to flood. Israeli army helicopters and police were dispatched and found the woman. Thirty other travelers stranded by flash floods in another riverbed nearby were rescued without injury.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TEXAS, NEW MEXICO - Wind continued whipping across Texas on Tuesday after driving wildfires that charred hundreds of square miles. Fire officials waited for daylight Tuesday to assess the scope of the state's biggest wildfire, which had stretched across parts of three central Texas counties and could be as large as 781 square miles, or 500,000 acres. At one point Monday, that blaze moved so quickly — stoked by 50 mph wind — that flames were consuming an area the size of "a football field every minute." Three firefighters were injured in a truck accident. There were at least two dozen separate fires across the state and likely "many, many more". "We had so many fires that there is no possible way to have enough firefighting resources for that many fires. Texas had the same conditions that you might expect in Southern California with some of their Santa Ana winds. The right conditions came together. It's EXTREMELY RARE for us to see that." Some fires were likely started by wind blowing down power lines. Elsewhere, a grass fire in southeastern New Mexico raced across about 81 square miles west of Hobbs before crews got a handle on the flames.

BRITAIN - this is already THE SUNNIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD - and it isn't over yet. By the end of yesterday, the average sunshine count in England and Wales had hit 121 hours, beating 1949's record of 118. Southampton has scored most highly, with 150.3 hours so far, closing in on the record of 166 hours set in 1891, in St Helier, Jersey. It may also be the driest February for a decade depending on rainfall in the next few days. "It is VERY UNUSUAL for February and by the 20th of the month we had already experienced the fourth sunniest February on record."

Climate change is killing us. So why are we still so reluctant to quantify the deaths it has caused? It's time for a body count. Scientists are involved in programmes to measure CO2 emissions, air temperatures, sea-ice loss and the impacts on birds, rainforest trees and coral reefs. While we know that climate change-related events are killing people, yet there is no comprehensive global monitoring program to document the human lives lost due to climate change. The biggest obstacle is the sheer variety of effects it has on health. These include direct effects such as drowning in floods and complex indirect effects, such as falling crop yields which increases malnutrition and changes in the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria. The World Heath Organisation publishes the only global estimate of the number killed by climate change - about 150,000 annually. Worryingly, this estimate comes from a single modelling study in 2002, and includes only four impacts of climate change (deaths from one strain of malaria, malnutrition, diarrhoea-type diseases and flooding). It is a highly conservative first estimate and, by now, considerably out of date.

Organic fertilizers can significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions if used properly, according to a new scientific report; but unless the organic farming community works to create goals for climate protection any gains could be overwhelmed by international shipments of food products.

CHINA is building a huge network to divert water to the capital for the Beijing Olympics and that threatens the livelihoods of millions of people, a senior Chinese government official has said. He warned of social upheaval and environmental harm because of the strain put on local water supplies. "In order to preserve the quality of Beijing's water we have to close all our factories." Shaanxi and Hebei province are being required to pump clean water to Beijing in time for the Olympics. They are on the northern stretch of a much larger water transfer project designed to bring supplies from the Yangtze River in the south to thirsty northern industrial areas, including Beijing. The entire project, costing tens of billions of dollars, is due for completion by 2010, but the authorities in the capital are hoping the northern leg of the network will be ready in time for the Olympics. Experts say water demand could rise to 30% above average in the city as thousands of visitors arrive for the games. Hebei province, which lies next to Beijing and supplies most of its water, is suffering from severe drought.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis cases in parts of the former Soviet Union have reached the HIGHEST RATES EVER RECORDED GLOBALLY. One in 20 cases don't react to some drugs.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence;
then success is sure.
Mark Twain

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/25/08 -
6.6 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
7.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

INDONESIA - 10th quake since Sunday - An earthquake measuring 6.6 hit the Kepulauan Mentawai region near the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the third to strike the region in about 12 hours. The quake struck at 4:02 a.m. local time at a depth of 32 kilometers (20 miles). The temblor sparked panic in Bengkulu and the west of Sumatra, sending people into the streets. Tremors also rocked buildings in downtown Singapore, located 365 miles from the epicenter.
INDONESIA - Ninth quake since Sunday hits Sumatra - The latest quake measured 6.3 on the open-ended Richter scale. No damage or deaths have been reported. The temblor struck shortly after 1 a.m., local time, Tuesday (1 p.m. EST Monday) about 540 miles northwest of Jakarta, Indonesia, and 100 miles southwest of Padang on Sumatra. Indonesian officials earlier had canceled a tsunami warning triggered by a 7.2 magnitude tremor Monday and no new alert was posted. Monday's quake rocked Indonesia's Bengkulu province, and was felt in Jakarta, Singapore and several other provinces. The epicenter was about 102 miles southwest of the city of Muko-Muko in the province and about 6 miles under the seabed.
Three houses collapsed and a senior high school building was destroyed after the magnitude 7.2 earthquake rocked Mentawai Islands off Sumatra`s western coast on Monday. The quake which struck at 3.35 p.m. forced most residents living in coastal areas to evacuate for fear of a tsunami.

NEVADA - Officials trying to assess the damage of a magnitude-6.0 earthquake in the northeastern Nevada town of Wells are facing new challenges. Dozens of aftershocks are forcing government officials to reinspect buildings to determine if they are safe to be occupied. "Once we've assessed them, we have to go right back out and assess them again." Thirty-five aftershocks of 3.0 or larger, including one of magnitude 4.8, had rattled the Wells area as of Friday afternoon – a day after the quake struck at 6:16 a.m.

Scientists have discovered a new factor responsible for earthquakes that may help produce long-range forecasts. They have discovered a process of rock stretching below the Hindu Kush mountains in Afghanistan, which causes a build-up of energy below the surface. Until now, earthquakes were thought to be a result of the collisions of two tectonic plates. The process is similar to pulling a metal rod from both ends and when it is suddenly released, it causes an earthquake.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - High surf that was expected to pound Southern California with waves as high as 28 feet fizzled as the day wore on Monday, leaving surfers disappointed by less-than-epic conditions. But authorities warned that rough seas still made fishing from jetties dangerous. The 6- to 8-foot swells were still dangerous. The Manhattan Beach Pier was closed early Monday, then reopened and closed again at 4 p.m. because of high surf. In Rancho Palos Verdes, fire officials searched until shortly before noon for a missing 23-year-old man who was swept out to sea Sunday night while walking on rocks with two friends. At the time of his disappearance, waves in the area had grown to 14 feet. The search was halted Monday when the tides grew too high to safely proceed. The Coast Guard reported that it rescued more swimmers than usual this weekend from rip currents.
Observers of the elephant seal rookery north of Cambria reported that many pup seals were being swept out to sea by this weekend’s high swells. An estimated 5 percent to 10 percent of pup seals, on average, are swept away by strong waves in January and February. The peak of the southwesterly swells, which reached 17 to 19 feet, occurred Sunday afternoon and will gradually decrease by Wednesday. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Contrary to forecasts, the weather-making La Nina event in the equatorial Pacific has started showing a weakening trend with a warming anomaly rearing its head along the eastern coast of South America. This has not, however, prompted a change in forecasts for a good initial burst and progress of the Indian monsoon, which has been observed to benefit from a prevailing La Nina. The warming trend in the eastern Pacific has caused UNUSUAL RAINS over the Peruvian desert, which should normally be witnessing suppressed convection during a La Nina phase. But what should come as a relief to monsoon watchers is that the contra-indicating El Nino will take at least another year to revive. The colder than normal temperature anomalies persist at the subsurface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. “It normally takes a few seasons before these cold subsurface anomalies are replaced by warm anomalies. Some ensemble members of the forecast experiments conducted suggest that an El Nino might develop by spring of 2009 only. Strong westerly wind bursts during that time would scale up the El Nino. Winter monsoon winds might also have a bearing on the denouement.” Earlier estimates had shown that the La Nina might linger until the spring of 2009.

CHINA - A mountain landslide in China's Shaanzi Province is expected to keep more than 1,000 middle school students away from campus for a week. Cracks were first discovered in Baotaliang Mountain at Ankang City, early this month. Parts of the mountainside began collapsing and the crumbling rocks buried the road at the mountain base. From 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturday, about 10 landslides occurred within a small scale. The region's bus station also was ordered to suspend operations while experts and officials work to prevent dangers to traffic.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ILLINOIS - According to an array of weather statistics compiled by the Illinois state climatologist, it's the third-worst winter in a decade. And weird, besides. "This is SOME OF THE MOST DRAMATIC WINTER WEATHER I HAVE EVER SEEN." Super Bowl Sunday saw several inches of snow on the ground - and thunderstorms. "I have never seen that before and never believed it could happen." "It's bitterly cold, and it's snowed every week since, what, Thanksgiving? It's depressing." As of this weekend, Chicago had gotten 51 inches of snow. That's not quite as bad as the 53.4 inches in 1998-99 and 54.5 inches in 2000-01. But hey, spring is still a few weeks away. "The last couple of winters have been fairly quiet. We haven't seen winters like this in quite some time. It's a little bit more reminiscent of the winters we saw in the late '70s and early '80s." Supplies of ice-melting salt are growing short in some places because of the UNUSAUL number of snowy days. "Right now, it looks like it's just an oddity of this one winter behaving like this."

TAIWAN - Tons of fish, from carp to exotic tropical specimens, have washed up dead along 320 km of beach on Taiwan's outlying islands because of cold temperatures. About 45 tons of fish, some wild and some farmed, appeared on the tourism-dependent Penghu Island archipelago in the Taiwan Strait from February 14 following a cold snap. 10 times that amount of dead fish was still in the water, making it THE WORST MASS KILLING OFF PENGHU IN 30 YEARS. "Every beach in Penghu has been hit with fish in varying amounts. THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE." Temperatures dipped below 9 degrees Celsius for three days in early February, UNUSUALLY low for subtropical Penghu. That weather came along with snow storms in nearby China.
UPDATE - The recent massive fish die-off in outlying Penghu County was mainly caused by a cold water current from China rather than by the abnormally cold spell of the past month, as many had previously thought, a local oceanologist said over the weekend. According to him, snow melt from heavy snowstorms that hit many parts of China in late January and early February flowed into China's southeastern coastal waters, which then drifted through the seas off Penghu. The low-temperature, low-salt water flow from China impeded the Kuroshio Current, also known as the Black Stream, which usually flows around Penghu bringing warm, tropical currents northward, water temperatures in coastal Penghu consequently dropped sharply and led to a massive fish die-off in the county, which depends on the fishing industry as the backbone of its economy. In his observation, the so-called "M-type" phenomenon in socioeconomic development is also seen in meteorology, meaning that tropical regions have become ever hotter, while cold and polar regions are getting increasingly colder, just as the rich are getting richer and the poor becoming ever poorer. "And both such climatic phenomena can affect Penghu, as it is located between tropical and colder regions," and since the entire global ecosystem has changed, the so-called 30-year cycle of fishery cold disaster in Penghu could also be broken. He suggested that an efficient alarm and monitoring system be crafted to facilitate prevention of similar disasters in future.
It could take years for the industry to fully recover. And as the temperature begins to rise, the high nutrient levels in the water could cause algal blooms, which could lead to a red tide, with toxins from the algae contaminating marine life and posing a hazard to human health. The recent cold weather - UNSEEN SINCE 1978 - might have seriously affected as many as 300 fish species. The cold spell has killed more than 1,500 tonnes, or over 80%, of the fish yields in the county's net cage fish farms, with losses totaling more than US$5.75 million. If shellfish are included, the total damage is estimated to exceed 3,000 tonnes.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

A new study finds that both humans and nature are contributing to the dramatic melting of Arctic ice. Basically, it’s the combination of the two together that’s SO UNUSUAL and so important. A natural cycle of winds blowing toward the North Pole have carried warm air and clouds that trap heat. That UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN has been observed by scientists for over the past 20 years. But nature can’t account for all the warming in the Arctic. "You have to take the long term global warming trend and then add the natural variability on top of it, and combined they send you to A NEW CLIMATE STATE THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE."

FINLAND - While enjoying plenty of snow, Lapland has experienced UNUSUALLY WARM weather this winter. An abrupt change at the weekend brought a winter record of -33.7°C to Kittilä. In comparison with a normal winter, this is a rather modest record. ”In any normal winter it is typical that a reading of -40°C is recorded in some parts of Lapland.” In Muonio, the mean temperature during the first three weeks of February was around -9°C. Previously in this decade, February has only once been warmer than an average of -10°C. The mean temperature at this time last year was around -18°C, marking the coldest February of the decade. This year the weather has been exceptionally humid and the frosty spells have been short and sporadic. ”There is fog on the fells as if we were on a coastal area. I hope this is not a permanent phenomenon”. As a result of the UNUSUALLY WET weather, producing artificial snow at the ski resorts has this winter been more difficult than previously. The weather in Helsinki, meanwhile, continues stubbornly to remain above freezing, and the forecast for the early part of the week is more of the same, and the long-range predictions are that the beginning of March will be several degrees warmer than the normal average. January in Helsinki was 4.8°C warmer than usual. As a result of climate change, one has to go farther and farther north every year in order to find enough snow to ski. Grey winter days will become common, and the Finnish weather will be more and more like that in Denmark or Belgium. The number of snowy months is predicted to shorten by one and a half or even by two months a year, particularly around the beginning and the end of the winter. Heavy rains and floods will increase instead. The surface temperature in the Gulf of Finland has also risen by 0.5 to 0.8 degrees over 50 years. Needless to say, ice on the Gulf of Finland close to Helsinki is conspicuous by its absence. A pied flycatcher, which is a migratory bird, wintering mainly in Africa, was detected in Helsinki’s district of Puistola in January. The species of Southern Finland are moving to the north. Some experts in Helsinki fear that new pests and weeds are already lurking behind the southern border of the country, waiting for suitable winds to blow them across the sea.
Ice-free coastal waters in February considered EXCEPTIONAL, even in Southern Finland. Icebreakers sitting idle in Helsinki. "I cannot remember if the sea has ever before been completely free of ice in February". The experts are astonished. "True, this is quite exceptional". On an average winter there is 29 centimetres of ice in the sea areas outside Helsinki by mid-February. Even last year, there were more than ten centimetres of ice at this time of year. The ice sheet covering the sea usually reaches its maximum thickness in March.

MONGOLIA - Landlocked between Siberia (Russia) and China, Mongolia is feeling the impact of global warming more than most regions in the world. Over the past 60 years the average temperature in Mongolia has risen by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.9 degrees Celsius). In contrast, the average temperature around the world has climbed only about 1 degree Fahrenheit (about 0.6 degree Celsius) in the past century. The warmer temperatures are drying up Mongolia's grasslands, which provide food for the country's livestock. Winters have seen the most severe warming, with warmer temperatures ultimately resulting in more destructive ice. "They'll get a moderate amount of snow, but then there's a warm day and the snow melts, then a cold day again and it freezes. This builds up two inches (five centimeters) of ice, and the livestock can't get to the food. When that occurs for a month or two, you have a large number of animals dying of starvation." "Summer temperatures are not changing overall, but we are seeing an increase in continuously hot days—nine, ten days straight with temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), which is something we haven't seen before." Hundreds of thousands of herders in recent years have abandoned their nomadic herding lives for an urban existence.

TEXAS - Wildfires pop up across Texas on day of 'critical' fire danger - Firefighters across West and Central Texas battled wildfires that burned about 183,000 acres on Monday and forced the town of Robert Lee — about 1,500 people — to be evacuated. The wildfire warning was in effect because of forecasts calling for strong winds and low humidity in western and central Texas, ideal conditions for the spread of wildfires. Wildfires have burned about 100,000 acres and destroyed about 60 homes and other structures in the past month.

SOUTH CAROLINA may be experiencing ITS WORST DROUGHT IN 800 YEARS, according to some tree ring data.

SPACE WEATHER-
When Earth's shadow fell across the Moon last week the result was "rather bright." On the scale of astronomical magnitudes, "the eclipsed Moon of Feb. 20 registered -3, almost a thousand times brighter than the classic dark eclipse of Dec. 30, 1963, which followed the eruption of the Agung volcano in Indonesia...This eclipse was so bright because the stratosphere is exceptionally clear." Volcanoes can clog the stratosphere with ash and other aerosols, making lunar eclipses dark, but it has been a while since a major eruption. "The stratosphere has been clear since about 1995 after aerosols from Pinatubo's 1991 eruption settled out, and it appears to be getting more clear with each eclipse." The brightness of lunar eclipses reveal the opacity of Earth's upper atmosphere. "A clear stratosphere means plenty of undiminished sunlight heating Earth" - something climate change models must take into account.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Watching Peru's Oceans for Cholera Cues - Before 1991, no one in Peru could remember a cholera outbreak. Then, in a single day, it hit hard up and down the coast and took off from there, eventually killing thousands. That outbreak was fueled by a change in ocean temperatures. A smaller epidemic occurred in 1998. Both were linked to El Nino, the periodic and unpredictable weather disruption that leads to warmer ocean currents. Warm ocean currents encourage the growth and spread of cholera bacteria. Now some people worry that climate change could bring the scourge back to Peru. "You're now having these diseases you didn't expect to have at all. Dengue last summer hit us in Lima, and the mosquito is moving south because the weather allows them to move."

FOOD SHORTAGES -
If there is any disruption to this year’s grain harvest, the world will be facing famine in 2009. And this is not a question of third-world-countries famine, folks. Grain stores are at their LOWEST POINT SINCE THEY BEGAN MEASURING IN 1960: 53 days. Food prices are already on the rise; with grain shortages, will surely come hoarding and hyperinflation in food. If you think times are getting tough, add a real food shortage. Now it’s time to grow backyard farms (Victory Gardens) – in fact it’s not at all a bad idea. With all the non-food-grade corn being used to make ethanol, there are now reductions in food stocks of both corn and wheat. 60 Minutes recently reported that high-tech fishing in the Mediterranean has succeeded in nearly depleting the Tuna population, which is estimated to have about two years left at the present rate of depletion. Similar under-regulated over-fishing is depleting the remaining available wild salmon in the American Northwest and Canada - though the Bush Administration’s Dept. of the Interior has changed the method of counting salmon stock to include farmed salmon (you know, the stuff that has to have its gray meat dyed pink)! Voila! No shortages anymore – keep on fishing! The housing slump and crumbling stock markets are continuing to run down the cumulative net worth of the entire American population, the bundled securities pyramid scheme has forced our financial institutions so near insolvency that the Fed quietly slipped them $50 billion to shore up their solvency, and now even state and municipal bonds are going unsold at auction. In Great Britain the government just nationalized Northern Rock Bank. But how many banks can we absorb? How many retirement funds can sustain bond defaults? And how will people eat when food costs soar and the bank is closed? Buying seeds yet?

Rocketing prices for soft commodities such as tea, coffee, grains and soybeans are stoking up inflationary pressures, creating a nightmare for central bankers and consumers in the industrialised countries like Britain as well as the developing world. Coffee, cocoa, tea and grain markets are simmering near boiling point, with prices sitting at or near record levels on a combination of speculation by hedge funds and other investors, bad weather in producing countries and strong demand from China. Arabica coffee, the highest-quality bean, surged recently to a 10-YEAR HIGH of $1.6015 per pound, up more than 35% in the past year. Tea prices are also likely to jump to record levels this year, underpinned by production disruptions in Kenya. Cocoa prices in New York recently reached a 24-year high, up 45% in the past year. The price of bread and beer will likely rise further in recent months because grain crops have been hit by drought in Australia and Canada, two of the world's biggest wheat producers. Food inflation faces more upward pressure because US farmers have barely increased their sowing of cereal crops, despite record prices.
The kind of frenzied activity the global vegetable oil market is witnessing at present is UNPRECEDENTED. It is unlikely to subside anytime soon, given the too many imponderables in the market place and speculative activity that is usually associated with market uncertainty. Without doubt, the global vegetable oil market is moving on factors much beyond the mundane demand-supply fundamentals that tradition-bound traders usually watched. Rising crude prices, biofuels demand in general (and biodiesel in particular), competition from other crops for acreage, continuing government support to encourage bioenergy (US, EU), weakening dollar and overall rise in agricultural commodity prices have all combined to push the market higher. A new dimension in the form of global warming and climate change threat has been added. Taking advantage of uncertainties amid tightening market fundamentals, funds continue to play a big role in pushing prices higher and create volatility. High international vegetable oil prices are here to stay, and cannot be wished away. Prices of wheat, pulses, rice edible oils and similar essential food products have moved beyond the reach of the poor and the needy.

FINLAND's butter mountains of the 1980s have been replaced by a shortage of milk - With the increase of production costs, Finland now produces LESS MILK THAN EVER BEFORE SINCE THE 1940s. Thanks to globalisation, as cheese manufacturers switch to producing milk powder for the growing markets such as China, the so-called low-cost cheeses have all but disappeared from the shelves of Finnish grocery stores. "There is a grave shortage of milk". The milk shortage has been further aggravated by exceptional natural conditions, such as droughts in Central Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The converting of fields into bio energy production especially in Germany and North America has also hit milk production. Grocery stores will not run out of milk, but the milk shortage may cause cheese dairies to shut down. "Who would have believed this a year ago? There is a shortage of milk in Finland, Europe, and the whole world".

Monday, February 25, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Who could have wished for more?"
Stephen Hawking

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 7.1 quake and a 6.2, 5.0, 5.1, 5.2 in the KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/24/08 -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA 2008

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ITALY - Venice is stuck in the mud as tide plummets - Gondolas have been left stranded in mud along Venice's Grand Canal after the city witnessed ONE OF ITS LOWEST TIDES EVER. Ferry companies and private boats had to find new routes around the Italian city when the water level fell to about 30 inches below sea level, the lowest figure recorded for the past 14 years. While the long-term survival of Venice is threatened by flooding due to the rising sea level, an entire year has passed without significant high tides. "This is the season - February and March - when we normally have very low tides, but in recent years they have been lower than ever." "This phenomenon is the result of EXCEPTIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS: a combination of high pressure and prevailing winds." The level of the world's oceans has risen by 3.5 inches over the past century, while subsidence has resulted in Venice sinking nine inches into the lagoon. Water was a RECORD 80 centimetres below sea level on Monday, 2/18. Some canals were emptied down to their mud bottoms in a phenomenon that was expected to last until the weekend. The lowest level reached before Monday's record was minus 77 in 2005. In January last year Venice saw four consecutive days of low tide averaging 70 centimetres below sea level. The more common scourge of "acqua alta" (high water) reached 109 centimetres above sea level last November, while the record remains the 194 centimetres of November 1966, when much of Italy suffered catastrophic flooding. Meanwhile experts predict higher water than ever next year, according to a complex mathematical model. Venice has become increasingly vulnerable over time, suffering more than 50 significant floods between 1993 and 2002 and sinking about 23 centimetres over the course of the 20th century. (photo)

JAPAN - Winter gales raged Sunday across northeastern Japan, grounding dozens of flights and causing HUGE WAVES that flooded coastal homes, drowned one fisherman and swept an octogenarian out to sea. In Nyuzen, Toyama, a man in his 80s was swept away as he walked along a coastal road watching the dramatic waves. The Meteorological Agency issued warnings for more gales, heavy snow and high waves in the region, predicting winds of up to 90 kilometers per hour (56 miles per hour) in northern and eastern coastal Japan through late Sunday. SUDDEN HIGH WAVES jumped a breakwater in Kurobe, Toyama, damaging about 80 houses and forcing 150 families to evacuate their homes. The storm disrupted public transportation, grounding more than 100 flights.

SOUTH AFRICA - FREAK wave hits Durban beach - One man drowned and 18 others had to be rescued after being swept into the sea after a freak wave hit the main beach on Sunday. Surf-rescue helicopter were called out just after 15:19 after reports of a large number of bathers in difficulties at the beach. The helicopter crew found lifeguards and police doing cardio-pulmonary resuscitation on a man of about 40, but without success. Lifeguards had restricted bathers to wading in the surf because of rough sea conditions. It appears that, with the rising tide, a set of waves unexpectedly swamped the beach, sweeping 19 bathers wading in ankle-deep water off their feet. Lifeguards quickly pulled in most of them, apart from a few who had been swept further into the sea.

Tsunami threat rises but cash to western U.S. states is cut - When Congress passed a tsunami preparedness bill and dedicated extra funds after the killer Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, state officials thought they'd get new money to gird for potentially the biggest natural disaster to hit the United States. But the opposite happened: Western states are now getting even less money than before. That's because the federal government is diverting the cash for its own programs that are not as crucial to public safety on the West Coast. That leaves states such as Oregon and Washington frustratingly short of money to help prepare the public for when a tsunami strikes - as they have before and will again. Much of the federal tsunami money has gone toward warning buoys that would not help the West Coast in the case of the most serious tsunamis expected here. The buoys would be useful to warn Hawaii of the coming wave, but not the West Coast. New tsunami projections suggest that tsunamis likely to hit the West Coast could prove bigger than earlier estimates. The federal actions "will severely hamper our abilities to produce evacuation maps for tsunamis, assist local communities with tsunami hazard mitigation projects, and continue tsunami hazard outreach and education vital to saving lives when tsunamis occur". Geologists estimate a roughly one in seven chance that a severe earthquake and tsunami will occur along the West Coast in the next 50 years, resulting in a catastrophe that could far exceed the scale of Hurricane Katrina.

A vast lake, trapped under the ice sheet that once smothered much of North America, drained into the sea 8200 years ago, an event that cooled earth's climate for hundreds of years. As the temperature gradually rose about 10,000 years ago, ice receded, gouging out the hollows that would be called the Great Lakes. And then, around 8200 years ago, Agassiz-Ojibway lake massively drained, sending a flow of water into the Hudson Strait and into the Labrador Sea that was 15 times greater than the present discharge of the Amazon River. By some estimates, sea levels rose 14 metres as a result. The influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic reduced ocean salinity so much that this braked the transport of heat flowing from the tropics to temperate regions. Temperatures dropped by more than 3 degrees celsius in Western Europe for 200-400 years - a mini-Ice Age in itself.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
One interesting thing about the "Grinch Storm" that moved into northern California Sunday is that the radar and satellite presentation looked almost like a tropical storm moving ashore! No, it wasn't really a tropical cyclone. The waters off the California coast are in the 40s and 50s year-round (well, sometimes it cracks 60 in summer) because of the cold ocean current off the West Coast. That's why tropical cyclones don't hit the West Coast except for an extrermely rare hit in southern California during an El Nino year (when the waters are warmer than usual) ... the cold water would be the death of any storm that moved that way (and usually steering currents prevent tropical cyclones from going that way, anyway). (satellite photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Food prices rose 40% last year because of rising demand and other factors. Even middle-class, urban people in countries such as Indonesia, Yemen and Mexico are increasingly being priced out of the food market or forced to sacrifice education and healthcare. Those who have been hardest hit so far are people in developing countries who are living on 50 US cents (£0.25) a day, 80-90% of which is already being spent on food. "In some of these developing countries, prices have gone up 80% for staple food. When you see those kinds of increases, they are simply priced out of the food markets." Egypt has just widened its food rationing system after two decades and Pakistan has reintroduced ration cards after many years. China and Russia are imposing price controls, while Argentina and Vietnam are enforcing foreign sales taxes or export bans. The UN's World Food Programme's ability to mitigate the impact of rising food prices has also been hampered by a significant decrease in the past five years of supplies of "in-kind food aid" - food produced abroad and delivered to vulnerable people in emergencies. In-kind food aid peaked in 2000, when there were large surpluses and low prices for cereals. The US, the world's largest donor of food aid, has since reduced its surplus.

Sunday, February 24, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When Mt. Baker blows, asteroids strike and SARS arrives
- A humorous view of post-disaster life in Vancouver.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there is a lot of activity in Indonesia -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/23/08 -
5.5 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.2 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
2/22/08 -
5.2 TONGA

NEVADA - Northeastern Nevada has been rattled by more than two dozen aftershocks since residents of Wells were struck by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake. 182 people were unable to return to their homes. Between 45 and 50 homes received varying amounts of damage, and in some cases residents do not have propane service restored. It's the aftershocks keeping people rattled — with the ground moving in waves, as one after another hits the town on the heels of the Thursday temblor.

ARIZONA - SWARM - Psychologists and earthquake experts say that following Yuma's recent spate of earthquakes and aftershocks, it's no surprise that some people feel a bit jumpy or hypersensitive to the possibility of yet another rumble. Many native and longtime Yumans have commented that they don't remember experiencing as many relatively strong quakes in such a short period of time as the current series, or "swarm," of quakes, which began Feb. 9. "One of the purposes of anxiety from a biological perspective is to put us in a heightened state of alertness so we can respond to whatever is going to occur. So when you have major events like these quakes there are many people who are going to genuinely feel they are sensing something." Over the past weeks of occasional earthquakes, there have been reports about people sensing the onset of yet another quake, which in time doesn't fully unfold. The experience then leaves people to wonder if they are simply sensitive to smaller quakes or if it's all in their minds. Experts say matters are only made worse given the fact that scientists for years have been warning this part of the world about "the big one" coming one day.
A magnitude 4.8 quake was felt in the Yuma area at 12:31 p.m. Friday, followed minutes later by a magnitude 4.4 aftershock. This swarm of quakes began Feb. 9 when an earthquake measuring 5.5 was felt in Yuma. That quake has been followed by numerous aftershocks, some striking twice in one day. Aftershock quakes have so far measured from magnitude 2.1 to 4.7. Experts with USGS said the Friday quake was likely just another aftershock related to the recent BAJA CALIFORNIA SWARM over the past several weeks. Quakes measuring 2.9 and 4.1 followed within minutes of Friday's initial temblor. A 4.7 quake in the same region was felt on Wednesday. Recent quakes have originated south of Mexicali, Baja California.

GREECE - SWARM? - An earthquake measuring 4.9 on the Richter scale struck southern Greece on Friday, the fifth significant tremor to hit the country in just over a week. The quake hit at 6.57am (local time) off the coast of Zante in the Ionian sea. It was felt across the island and in the western Peloponnese, but no victims or damage was reported. The epicentre was 235km west of the Greek capital Athens. Greece accounts for half of Europe's earthquakes and there has been an increase in seismic activity in recent days. Since February 14, the Peloponnese has been hit by three quakes measuring at least six on the Richter scale, while a 4.4-magnitude tremor was registered on Sunday near Mount Parnitha, north west of Athens. None of them caused major damage.

NEW ZEALAND - SWARM - Another earthquake was recorded near Matata in the Bay of Plenty at 2.51am on Saturday. The 3.3 magnitude quake was centred 10km north of Matata. It was 2km deep. It was the seventh small earthquake to be recorded this month to date near Matata. There is a significant swarm of quakes in the region: more than 2000 tremors have been recorded in the Matata area since the beginning of 2005. Recent quakes have all been shallow and are part of what's called an extensional process in which the East Cape and Northland are pulling apart. As a result, a crack is growing at the rate of about 1cm per year in the Bay of Plenty. But it doesn't pose any risk, as it's being filled in with pliable rock and sediment as it grows.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - A buried volcano discovered inside another volcano in Auckland has excited scientists, who say it is EXTREMELY RARE for two eruptions to have occurred at the same site in the Auckland volcanic field. Geologists found the buried volcano inside Panmure Basin - which is the mouth of a volcano that erupted about 28,000 years ago. The volcano would have been formed as a result of "fire fountaining" (where the magma spits up to the surface). The volcanic cone could be about 10,000 years old, much younger than its host, so the volcanic events would have been independent of each other. Of the 49 vents in the Auckland volcanic field, only Rangitoto was thought to have erupted twice. It is important to understand the clustering of volcanic eruptions from the Auckland volcanic field in time and space to prepare for future volcanic activity in the Auckland region.

ALASKA - The seismic alert level for Mount Veniaminof was raised from green to yellow by the Alaska Volcano Observatory on Friday after several minor bursts of ash were recorded. The ash rose only a few hundred feet above the volcano cone but could pose a hazard to low-flying aircraft in the vicinity. Sporadic increases in seismic activity have been noted at Veniaminof since Feb. 11, including bursts of tremors lasting from one to two minutes and occurring several times an hour. Several were similar to seismic activity seen during eruptions in 2005.

PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Friday started surveying two major volcanoes in Bicol for possible seismic activities. The team seeks to check Mayon Volcano in Albay and Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon for signs of abnormal activity. Alert Level 1 remains in effect over the two volcanoes, which are just 70 kilometers apart. “We’re looking if there is inflation or a deflation at the edifices of the volcanoes. If there’s inflation, that would mean unusual activity in the volcano. If it doesn’t inflate, then there’s no reason to worry." They are closely monitoring the levels of sulfur dioxide being fumed out of the Mayon Volcano to gauge the level of seismic activity beneath the volcano. The two volcanoes have not displayed abnormal activities in the last few days, but they are still on the look-out for possible lahar flows. A continuous downpour may cause lahar materials earlier deposited on the foot slopes of Mayon to come rushing down low-lying, surrounding villages. Mount Mayon Volcano is surrounded by five towns and three component cities while Mount Bulusan stretches to six towns.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
ANTARCTIC GLACIERS SURGING TO OCEAN - scientists working in Antarctica have found some of the clearest evidence yet of instabilities in the ice of part of West Antarctica. If the trend continues, it could lead to a significant rise in global sea level. The new evidence comes from a group of glaciers covering an area the size of Texas, in a remote and seldom visited part of West Antarctica. The "rivers of ice" have surged sharply in speed towards the ocean. "It has been called the weak underbelly of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the reason for that is that this is the area where the bed beneath the ice sheet dips down steepest towards the interior. If there is a feedback mechanism to make the ice sheet unstable, it will be most unstable in this region." THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BE CONCERNED. Satellite measurements have shown that three huge glaciers here have been speeding up for more than a decade. The biggest of the glaciers, the Pine Island Glacier, is causing the most concern. Throughout the 1990s, according to satellite measurements, the glacier was accelerating by around 1% a year. The sensational finding this season is that it now seems to have accelerated by 7% in a single season, sending more and more ice into the ocean. The reason does not seem to be warming in the surrounding air. One possible culprit could be a deep ocean current that is channelled onto the continental shelf close to the mouth of the glacier. There is not much sea ice to protect it from the warm water, which seems to be undercutting the ice and lubricating its flow. There may be other forces at work as well. Much higher up the course of the glacier there is evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea. The risk of a major collapse of this section of the West Antarctic ice sheet should be taken seriously. "There has been the expectation that this could be a vulnerable area. Now we have the data to show that this is the area that is changing. So the two things coinciding are actually quite worrying." The big question now is whether what has been recorded is an exceptional surge or whether it heralds a major collapse of the ice. If the glacier does continue to surge and discharge most of its ice into the sea, the Pine Island Glacier alone could raise global sea level by 25cm. That might take decades or a century, but neighbouring glaciers are accelerating too and if the entire region were to lose its ice, the sea would rise by 1.5m worldwide.

CALIFORNIA - Extremely large waves are headed toward the Central Coast and are expected to arrive today. Swells ranging from 19 to 21 feet will begin arriving this morning and will continue at that height through the afternoon. The swells have the potential to be SOME OF THE BIGGEST SEEN SINCE 1990. However, the waves are coming from the southwest, so there is little offshore buoy data to verify the forecast. The big waves will be accompanied by winds of up to 50 mph and a powerful winter storm that is expected to drop as much as 2 inches of rain over the weekend. The wind and waves are not expected to be accompanied by high tides. Waves will come ashore in quick succession. That will mean very little time between waves, which can make it difficult for lifeguards to reach someone in trouble in the surf.

AUSTRALIA - Rough seas and high tides combine to create a foamy, frothy, chocolate mousse mess at Moffat Beach, Caloundra. In previous years, foam created by king tides and wild weather was clean, but recently the Coast foam has begun to develop symptoms witnessed in the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas. Studies show sewage and run-off, including motor oils, are bonding into molecules, rendering the foam sticky, smelly and dark-coloured. Oil dumped by passing ships may also be partly to blame for the state of the foam. “The foam is getting worse.” A long-time local resident said the foam at Teewah Beach appeared to be the result of an algal bloom which dissipated after the Boxing Day cyclonic conditions last year. “But it is markedly different (dirtier) from the 1970s and 1980s...I’ve lived here 50 years. I’ve played in this water, I’ve seen foam – but not this.” (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
It's back! Cyclone HONDO was 107 nmi SW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

REUNION - Tropical storm Hondo struck Reunion at about 12:00 GMT on 23 February.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FLORIDA - In Tallahassee, the 4.99 inches that fell on Thursday broke the day's long-standing RAINFALL RECORD of 3.90 inches from 1894. Tallahassee was inundated by 6.20 inches of rain into early Friday morning. With 3.51 inches of rain, Pensacola SURPASSED ITS DAILY RAINFALL RECORD of 2.28 inches from 2001.

PORTUGAL - heavy rain in Lisbon on Monday caused two deaths, five injuries and left a woman missing. A further 179 people were left homeless. Heavy rains were set to return to southern Portugal this weekend, though the Met Office are not expecting a repeat of the FREAK weather experienced earlier in the week. The flooding was THE WORST SEEN IN THE CAPITAL SINCE 1967, when hundreds of Lisbonites died as a direct result of the heavy rains. No price has been put on the damage caused as local authorities still count the cost of the surprise flooding.

SWEDEN - An overnight storm Friday battered southern Sweden with hurricane-strength winds, knocking out power to tens of thousands and causing flooding in the coastal city of Goteborg. More than 80,000 households experienced power outages after the storm, which also caused major traffic disruptions. Parts of a roof were torn off a house on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, and a passenger bus was pushed onto its side in a water-filled ditch on Sweden's west coast. Downed trees blocked more than 40 roads overnight. At least six train lines in the southern part of the country were closed as rail companies worked to clear fallen trees from the tracks. Winds off the country's southern coast reached speeds of 140 kilometers per hour (87 miles per hour). Winds of about 119 kph (74 mph) are classified as hurricane-strength. Inland, gusts of up to 114 kph (71 mph) were recorded in some places.

BRITAIN - Ferry crashes into oil platform as gales hit the Tyne on Friday. Stunned workers and anglers watched in disbelief as a DFDS ship escaped down the River Tyne. The runaway ship was torn from its moorings as FREAK winds lashed the North East. Gales reached 60mph, leading to road closures and the evacuation of a retail park at the MetroCentre. The ferry was seen floating towards South Shields. It is believed a diver was working underneath the ferry at the time and narrowly avoided being injured. A witness saw the ferry smash into an oil platform on the south side of the river. “We all thought it was the weather. I’ve worked down here a few times and I’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT.” “Due to exceptionally adverse weather conditions, strong winds enabled the King of Scandinavia to slip its mooring line and berth, causing the vessel to collide with a decommissioned oil rig. No passengers were on board at the time and no crew members were injured. The ship has now been safely towed back to a river berth.” Meanwhile, thousands of shoppers were evacuated from Gateshead’s MetroCentre when winds tore loose part of a store’s roof. Police barricaded a Gateshead road to protect drivers and pedestrians from splinters breaking off wood paneling on an apartment block. The southern stretch of Old Durham Road was closed from 2.30pm after debris falling from new flats in Blacklock Close was reported blowing across the road. Sections of the A68 in Northumberland were closed after two lorries were blown over. Both drivers suffered minor injuries. A section of the busy A19 near Seaham, County Durham, was closed when a van and trailer overturned blocking the southbound carriageway. The Met Office predicted the winds would die down over the weekend.

FIJI - The situation in Rakiraki is worsening as heavy downpour has led to flooding in the town. The situation might worsen even more at night when the high tide comes in. The Nadi Weather Office said an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud, rain and moist northwesterly winds are slow moving across Fiji.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - A major snow cyclone hitting Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk has caused the Russian city's airport to close down, disrupting air travel throughout Russia. The decision by air transportation officials to close down the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk airport was particularly detrimental to air travel as the airport serves as the gateway for most air travel to Russia's Sakhalin region.

TAJIKISTAN - Families in some of Tajikistan's most remote areas are braving food, fuel and water shortages triggered by record cold temperatures in the Central Asian nation. Tajikistan is one of the world's poorest countries, and many of its residents — urban and rural — are unable to cope with the effects of this extreme cold snap. Days-long blackouts in cities and towns have chilled residents who rely on electricity to heat their homes, putting the most vulnerable residents — as well as patients at urban hospitals — at risk. And burst pipes and frozen water mains have forced urban dwellers to collect water from unsafe sources. In rural areas, many households are selling off livestock and other prized assets to pay for needed food. More than half of rural households report members in poor health and not enough money to seek medical attention. "With the cost of food at the market skyrocketing, and dairy production hampered by the cold weather, people are forced to rely more on their own stocks. And people in rural Tajikistan depend on food that they've stored from the fall harvest, and many of these stores have been spoiled or damaged by the freeze."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - A heatwave in Queensland has put 21 people in hospital. Ambulances were called to homes across the state's southeast as temperatures rose to 40C yesterday.

KENYA - rangers and residents are struggling to control bush fires that have engulfed a third of one of the nation's best-known wildlife parks. The fire was accidentally started in a nearby village and has already destroyed large patches of the 188 sq km Lake Nakuru National Park. When the fire began, grass parched from a recent lack of rain made fertile fuel. Most famous for the hordes of flamingos that gather on its lake shore, the park in central Kenya is home to 450 species including white rhinos, giraffes and lions. Game wardens said the fire appeared to have largely spared the wildlife, although a reporter saw a charred turtle.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, February 22, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Civilization begins with order, grows with liberty, and dies with chaos.
Will Durant

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/21/08 -
5.7 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. (lots of 4.0+ aftershocks)
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.0 NEVADA (lots of 3.0+ aftershocks, one 4.0 & one 4.6)
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
6.2 SVALBARD REGION

NEVADA - The 6.0 magnitude quake that hit the Nevada city of Wells early Thursday morning left it strewn with the wreckage of older buildings. The earthquake has badly damaged the historic centre of the remote town and injured several people, but nearby mining operations were only briefly disrupted. The quake sparked small fires and cracked pipes, cutting off running water for a time. The main street dating from the late 1800s suffered the most damage as ceilings collapsed, windows broke and bricks fell. Although many of its saloons, markets and banks are no longer used, officials had talked about reviving the area. "The historic district is pretty much done for." The quake was the MOST POWERFUL TO HIT NEVADA IN 14 YEARS. The quake struck at 6:16 a.m. Eighteen aftershocks measuring magnitude 3 or greater were recorded by 11 a.m. There’s a one-in-20 chance the 6.0 quake could be a precursor of a larger event over the next few days, but the likelihood of that occurring will decrease with the passage of time. (photo links)

BAJA CALIFORNIA - After 13 days of earthquakes, the ground stayed largely still in the border region east of San Diego County Thursday. But residents were still rattled in Mexicali, a sprawling city south of the border that has felt the brunt of the temblors. From Feb. 8 through Thursday, the region suffered close to 500 quakes and aftershocks that have rippled as far as San Diego 100 miles away. Most have been so minor as to go unfelt, but four quakes have measured at least 5.0 in magnitude. The tremors have not caused major structural damage or injury, but they have disrupted life in Mexicali, the capital of Baja California and a city of 900,000. The biggest effects have been psychological. “It has everyone wondering whether something worse could happen.” Geologists said the swarm of small earthquakes is nothing out of the ordinary, as Mexicali sits near the highly active Cerro Prieto fault. But the frequency is UNUSUAL.

NORWAY - An earthquake of 6.2 magnitude, THE BIGGEST EARTHQUAKE IN NORWEGIAN HISTORY, jolted the thinly populated Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic on Wednesday night. No one was hurt by the quake and no damage has been reported in the islands, about 1,000 km (600 miles) from the North Pole. The quake occurred at sea, about 10 km (6 miles) below the surface. Svalbard registered several aftershocks, and predicted there would be more. National leaders will be in Svalbard next week for the official opening of a seed vault which will store frozen crop seeds from around the world in case crops are wiped out by a future disaster.

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - The USGS says the nearly three-and-a-half year eruption of Mount St. Helens that started in October in 2004 appears to have paused. The U.S. Geological Survey Thursday announced it is lowering the volcano’s eruption advisory level. “It seems to be taking a rest.” Since January, officials have been unable to find any evidence on ongoing eruption of volcanic rock into the crater. “All movements that we can detect are more indicative of a settling of the lava dome rather than active growth.” Because they’re not sure what the volcano’s next step will be, officials decided not to drop the levels back to normal and green, which would officially indicate the eruption is over.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
DELAWARE - For the last couple of years, at least, they have seen the formation of an early sub-tropical storm in the Atlantic that has rivaled the best of anything the hurricane season has thrown at them in recent years. In fact, nor'easters have been somewhat of a rarity this winter. Typically the standard fare for winter swell generation, this season they've had ample south swell events but very few nor'easters. Nor'easters usually bring bitterly cold, biting winds for days and perhaps one day of huge, heavy dumpers. South swells seem to offer a little broader window, plus a lot warmer weather. Normally, this time of year you can almost plan ahead which day of the week will have some surf and schedule accordingly, knowing that the rest of the week will be flat and cold. But for the last few weeks, they've been able to surf several days throughout each week, as the swell and wind clocks from south to north. This clash of warm and cold fronts cause wildly ranging temperature swings, and just as varied wave conditions. But the water isn't warming up any yet. Another aspect of the spring-like weather and the predominately south swells that they've been enjoying is the additional sand that is building up on the beach and on sandbars. Winter storms typically scour away sand from the shoreline while the more gentle summer waves serve to build the beaches back up. But without the usual weather conditions typified by the classic nor'easters, a lot of sand is building up on the sandbars. This may or may not be all that positive for local wave quality in the long run.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

Ivan - Meteorological Departments are closely monitoring the movements of Cyclone Ivan which has killed about 11 people in Madagascar and is now headed for Mozambique. However, the cyclone has now been reduced to the level of tropical storm. Ivan is expected to hit central Mozambique where accompanying rains could worsen the heaviest flooding in many years caused by torrential seasonal rains. Around 100,000 people have already been evacuated to higher ground from four main river valleys in Mozambique. There are fears that if Cyclone Ivan hits Mozambique, Malawi would also be affected, as has been the case with South-easterly winds and rainfall from Mozambique that end up affecting Malawi. Madagascar is bracing itself for another onslaught as Cyclone Hondo re-forms and heads for the island's east coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ECUADOR has extended a state of emergency to the entire nation after torrential rains triggered floods and mudslides across the country. Nearly a month of flooding has claimed at least three lives and forced thousands to flee their homes. More than 50,000 people have been affected by the flooding. A state of emergency was declared in nine provinces on 31 January, but the incessant rains have led it to be extended to cover all of the country's 24 provinces.

PHILIPPINES - At least 20 people are now known to have died in landslides and floods caused by more than a week of heavy rain. Bridges have been washed away and roads submerged in Eastern Samar province, which has been hardest hit. Heavy rain has been falling in the Philippines since 12 February, inundating rice fields and causing damage estimated at $12.2m (£6m). In Eastern Samar, tens of thousands of people were forced into temporary shelters by floods. The bad weather has now moved west to Bicol, where authorities have ordered the evacuation of 70,000 people. Many live around the Mayon volcano and officials fear more rain could trigger mudslides. More bad weather is forecast for the Philippines over the next few days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - RECORD CHILLY TEMPERATURES have sent residents in Kalgoorlie and other parts of WA reaching for the blankets. Kalgoorlie has experienced the extremes of weather over the past five days with Wednesday’s chilly 15.1C maximum and 15C on Tuesday setting a RECORD LOW FOR FEBRUARY. The previous lowest temperature in the mining town during February was 16.4 C in 1993. The mercury has taken a massive dive since Sunday when the maximum reached 41C. On Monday it was 34.6C. Kalgoorlie’s average for February is 32C. “To be as low as 15C, that’s REALLY REALLY UNUSUAL." There was some UNUSUALLY colder weather around, particularly in the Goldfields region. NUMEROUS OTHER RECORD LOWS were recorded in the Gascoyne region, Midwest and Southern Cross. Cooler winds from the southeast and extensive cloud, along with the impact of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, are blamed for the colder weather. The bureau has issued a warning to sheep farmers in the Central West and northern parts of the Central Wheat Belt about wet and windy weather and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Summary of cold weather around the world. Ice cover around the Antarctic is at its GREATEST EXTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE DATA BEGAN in 1979, 30% above average. U.S. satellite data for January shows the extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere reached ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1966, 42 years ago - and that TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN THEIR AVERAGE FOR THE WHOLE OF THE 20TH CENTURY. One of the oddest features of this great freeze is how little it was predicted. (icy photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Nutri-Foods Recalls "Organic Sesame Seeds Natural - Unhulled" Because of Possible Health Risk.
-Sherwood Brands Announces Nationwide Recall of Pokemon Branded Valentine Cards and Pops Because They May Contain Metal Fragments.

Daytime dozing may be warning sign of stroke - Older people who have significant trouble staying awake during the day have more than four times the normal risk of having a stroke.

Learning to control your anger may also speed up the healing process after surgery, US research suggests. Stress has a major impact on the body's ability to repair itself. Nearly 100 participants were asked to rate how well they could control their temper, and then the speed at which they recovered from a blister was monitored. Hotheads were more than four times likely to take more than four days to heal than mild-mannered counterparts. Whether one directed one's anger externally or internally proved to have no bearing on recovery - what was crucial was just how much control the individual was able to exert over their feelings. "Your body prioritises and sorts one thing out at a time, so if you are stressed, your body works through that before it gets on with the process of healing."

Thursday, February 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
An idea is not responsible for the people who hold it.
'Life of Brian'

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.2 quake in the SVALBARD REGION.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/20/08 -
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
7.4 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
6.2 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.5 SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

INDONESIA - Authorities were still tallying the wreckage on Simeule, but early reports said many buildings were damaged or destroyed by the 7.4 quake. At least one major bridge also collapsed. Three people were killed and more than 50 others injured. The fault line that ruptured was the same one that produced the 2004 Asian tsunami. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 391 nmi NNW of Perth, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low pressure system last night looming over the western Top End could intensify into a cyclone as early as Saturday. The low, yesterday situated about 110km south of Darwin, was expected to move west over the next few days, and there was a high possibility it could develop into a cyclone on Saturday. There was a "10 per cent or less" chance it could form today or tomorrow. But the chances of the Territory bearing the brunt of any cyclonic wild weather was "low".
Nicholas crossed the coast as a category 1 cyclone Wednesday. It has now weakened below cyclone intensity as it continues to track south over land.

MADAGASCAR - As initial assessments shed light on the extensive damage caused by Cyclone Ivan earlier this week, Madagascar is bracing itself for another onslaught as Cyclone Hondo picks up and heads for the island’s east coast. Ivan slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February, with winds of up to 210km per hour, leaving a trail of destruction on its way across the island until it slowly diminished in strength and dissipated in the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday. Ivan brought “two levels of disasters: destruction caused by the intense wind first, and now the flooding. And we can expect more - we are in the middle of cyclone season you know - Hondo is now threatening our coast.” Hondo developed into a full-blown category four tropical cyclone in the centre of the Indian Ocean at the beginning of February, but quickly lost intensity and never threatened to make landfall. But Hondo is making a comeback. “Hondo is now 1,600km from our east coast. It does not affect the weather yet, but we must be alert to its evolution.” On Sainte Marie, a 60km long island off Madagascar’s northeast coast, which bore the brunt of cyclone Ivan, “75 percent of the houses have been destroyed." Over 8,000 were left without shelter and two people died. An additional nine victims are thought to be buried under the rubble of a collapsed hotel. “The cyclone damaged road infrastructure and houses and blew down trees. In many parts of the country, especially the northeast, the electricity is cut off and rivers are reported to have begun flooding." Concerns have also been raised over food security after large areas of rice fields were flooded in the Ambatondrazaka region, where most of Madagascar’s rice, the staple food, is grown. The cyclone season was overlapping with the lean season between harvests, and the precarious food security situation was worrying. “After the passage of the cyclones, many people lose their harvest. This situation would likely cause a severe deterioration of the situation in the coming months.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / WINDS / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CANADA - Heavy rain and melting snow are causing water woes across the Atlantic region, closing roads and disrupting water supplies. There's a state of emergency Wednesday in the community of Heart's Content on Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula, where heavy rain has caused water-line problems. Residents are currently without water and when they do get back online, they'll be under a boil order due to concerns with the chlorination system. In Nova Scotia, flooding closed a half-dozen roads in Lunenburg County Wednesday.

KUWAIT - Another FREAK DUST-STORM disrupting life, traffic at three ports, airport - A blinding dust storm hit Kuwait on Tuesday, forcing the closure of three ports and disrupting air traffic. Winds blowing at a speed of up to 40 kms (25 miles) an hour caused the storm, the second in four days in this desert nation, reducing visibility to below 300 metres (yards) at Kuwait airport. Incoming planes were facing difficulty landing. The meteorological department is forecasting the dust storm will continue until Friday. Kuwait has virtually had no rain this winter which makes desert sand loose and easily carried by strong northwesterly winds. Dust storms are RARE in winter but are common in summer when the temperature reaches 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). The current dusty weather was attributed to the scarcity of rain and fast blowing winds. 'A long spell of dryness has affected sand particles and they are now easily being carried by speeding winds.' This year is the third driest year since 1957 with only 33.7 millimeters rain to date. The region is undergoing an extreme climate cycle which occurs every 14 to 18 years. The cycle is influenced by sun rays which affect the atmosphere, amount of vapor and heat which are the main factors contributing towards rainfall and the change in seasons across the world. 'Pollution has also contributed to the extremeness of weather conditions.'

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
INDIA - in Jammu and Kashmir nearly 30 people, including several army men, lost their lives to avalanches triggered by continuous heavy snowfall early this month. In worst-hit Kapran, Verinag and Dooru areas of Anantnag district in south Kashmir, about 200 people were rescued, while 12 people were killed in avalanches and blizzards that struck these areas in the first week of February. The high-altitude areas of Kapran, Verinag and Waltango in Dooru assembly constituency were also the worst hit when 290 people died in a series of avalanches in April 2005.

RUSSIA - An avalanche has ruined the office of the Zamarag hydropower plant and killed two people. One person is missing. Avalanches keep coming down on the trans-Caucasian highway. Their precise number is unknown, as visibility is nil and it has been snowing for two days.

NORTH DAKOTA - Frigid arctic air coming down from Canada BROKE RECORDS in eastern North Dakota on Wednesday, including one that had stood for more than a century. The temperature dropped to minus 33 degrees at the Grand Forks airport Wednesday morning, breaking the record for the date of minus 29 set in 1956. Devils Lake hit 34 degrees below zero, breaking that city's record for the date of 30 below set in 1939. Fargo broke a record that had stood for 119 years, with 31 below. The record had been 30 below set in 1889. "High pressure overhead, fresh snow, light winds, it made for ideal conditions for a nice, cold night."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRITAIN - February has seen extremes of temperature, from icy sub-zero lows to a near-record high. There can have been few Februaries like it. Britons could have been forgiven for thinking they lived in two different countries in the past week, with unseasonable warmth followed by extreme sub-zero temperatures within a few days. The Met Office reported temperatures ranging from icy sub-zero lows to a near-record-breaking 18.2C high in what it described as "A WEEK OF DRAMATIC CONTRASTS". The weekend saw the coldest snap, with temperatures plummeting to -9C in northern parts of the country, creating frost and fog. But earlier in the week, people in western regions were donning T-shirts in disbelief at the almost summer-like warmth. And in Trawschoed, Wales, a temperature of 18.2C was recorded. On only three occasions since 1960 has it been hotter. "These temperatures are VERY RARE in February. The average daily maximum temperature for February is 6.3C, so these are almost record-breaking." Spring flowers which had BLOOMED AT RECORD EARLY DATES were thwarted by the sudden cold snap. These highly fluctuating temperatures may cause confusion but they stem from the same weather pattern. And the changeable weather is not over yet.

CHILE - One of Chile's WORST DROUGHTS IN 50 YEARS has parched farms and drained local water supplies, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency in 30 municipalities on Wednesday. More than a quarter of the country's 345 municipalities have faced urgent water shortages in recent weeks, pushing the government to spend more than $13 million to tap underground water deposits and send cistern trucks to water livestock and crops. The eight-month-long drought will "inevitably trigger price hikes on some produce." Water shortages are also threatening electricity supply, as Chile relies on hydroelectric power for 60 percent of its energy.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

THE LARGEST MEAT RECALL IN U.S. HISTORY - Lawmakers and government investigators seized on the recall to set the table for changes in the nation's food-safety system, especially as it applies to school lunches.

PARAGUAY - Thousands of people in Paraguay have been queuing for vaccines against yellow fever, after THE FIRST OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE IN 30 YEARS. At least four people have died, and the government declared a state of emergency last week. At least 13 people are thought to have died in an outbreak of the disease in neighbouring Brazil. Another health alert was declared in Paraguay last month amid a suspected outbreak of dengue fever.

A detailed map highlighting the world's hotspots for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has been released. It uses data spanning 65 years and shows the majority of these new diseases come from wildlife. Scientists say conservation efforts that reduce conflicts between humans and animals could play a key role in limiting future outbreaks. The number of events that originated from wild animals has increased significantly over time. "We are crowding wildlife into ever smaller areas, and human population is increasing. Where those two things meet, that is the recipe for something crossing over." The main hotspots were located in low latitude regions, like South Asia and South-East Asia. "The world's public health resources are misallocated. Most are focused on richer countries that can afford surveillance, but most of the hotspots are in developing countries."

CROP FAILURE / FOOD SHORTAGES -
GOOD CROPS -
INDIA - OILSEEDS - In November, the country was in the process of harvesting a RECORD soyabean crop, while there was a rebound in the groundnut crop. Aided by an improved southwest monsoon performance that helped soyabean and groundnut crops, the output of major cultivated oilseeds during the ongoing kharif 2007 season is seen 25 per cent higher from last year. As a result, indigenous vegetable oil production is expected to show an increase during oil year 2007-08.

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VEGETABLE OIL - A STARTLING CHANGE IS UNFOLDING IN THE WORLD'S FOOD MARKETS. Rising prices for cooking oil in India are forcing residents of Mumbai to ration every drop. Bakeries in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs. And in Malaysia, brand-new factories built to convert vegetable oil into diesel for trucks sit idle, their owners unable to afford the raw material. This is the other oil shock. Shortages and soaring prices for palm oil, soybean oil and many other types of vegetable oils are the latest, most striking example of a developing global problem: costly food. The Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its index of export prices for 60 internationally traded foodstuffs climbed 37% last year. That was on top of a 14 percent increase in 2006, and the trend has accelerated in the past few weeks. In some poor countries, desperation is taking hold. Just in one week, there have been protests in Pakistan over wheat shortages and in Indonesia over soybean shortages. Egypt has banned rice exports to keep food at home, and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen. A STARTLInG CHANGE IS UNFOLDING IN THE WORLD'S FOOD MARKETS. Soaring fuel prices have altered the equation for growing food and transporting it across the globe. Huge demand for biofuels has created tension between using land to produce fuel and using it for food. And all this is happening even as global climate change may be starting to make it harder to grow food in some of the places best equipped to do so. Food experts say steep increases in commodity prices have not fully made their way to street stalls in the developing world or supermarkets in the West. Biofuels accounted for almost half the increase in worldwide demand for vegetable oils last year, and represented 7 percent of total consumption of the oils.

OILSEEDS, FRUIT, VEGETABLES, LIVESTOCK - CHINA - Winter storms have heaped woes on central, south and southwest China since mid-January, leading to widespread traffic jams, blackouts and crop losses. Official figures till Feb 14 show 10.5 million hectares of crops in 20 provinces and autonomous regions, or about 7.5% of the country's total plantation acreage, have been affected by the snow disaster. The blizzards have also killed 4 million pigs, 393,000 cows, 1.38 million sheep and 63 million chickens and ducks in less than a month, causing livestock shortages and price rises, and hurting farmers' incomes. Nearly half of the total cole produce, or about 3.26 million hectares, was hit by the freak weather, along with 2.81 million hectares of other vegetables, 1.26 million hectares of fruit trees and about 584,000 hectares of wheat. The regions are low on supplies of seeds and stud stock and farmers badly need scientific solutions to cushion the disaster's impact. Transport problems in some snow-hit provinces have led to shortages and price rises of vegetables there, mounting even more pressure on the inflation rate.

PEPPERS - INDIA - Heavy rain during the flowering season has affected the pepper yield in Uttara Kannada district.

DAIRY PRODUCTS - AUSTRALIA - shoppers could soon be buying imported cream, butter and cheese if the drought continues in dairy producing areas.
RICE - AUSTRALIA - Drought has all but ruined the Australian rice crop in the main growing area of New South Wales.
CANOLA OIL - AUSTRALIA, the world's third-largest canola exporter, cut its forecast for the current crop by 9.2 percent, the third straight reduction, after recent rain failed to benefit crops in the country's east. Harvest expectations in Australia were scaled back as the nation's worst drought killed crops and reduced yield estimates for a second year. Canola seeds are crushed to produce a vegetable oil that competes with soy and palm oil in food preparation.
VALENCIA ORANGES - The drought is being blamed for South Australia's valencia orange crop being downgraded to THE LOWEST ON RECORD.

WINE - PERU - the wine regions of Ica, Chincha and Pisco are still picking up the pieces following the major earthquake on August 15, 2007. While the vines themselves – which cover several thousand hectares - remain largely intact, most winery buildings and the adobe homes of vineyard workers were flattened. Most wine is Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon and Malbec. "Peru has the oldest vines in the Americas, some of which date to 1400."

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NORTH KOREA could face a famine this year after devastating floods destroyed crops and farm land in August of 2007.

SUDAN - Flooding that began in early July 2007 continued into October in parts of southern Sudan, causing crop losses and displacement and increasing the food insecurity of affected populations from October to December 2007. Food security was expected to improve from December 2007 to March 2008, as receding flood waters allow for increased access to fish and water plants, improved grazing conditions for animals and recessional agriculture.

BURKINA FASO - After deadly floods that hit Burkina Faso weeks before, the impoverished west African country faces a drought caused by an early and abrupt end to the rainy season. Fears run high that the weak rains will have a knock-on effect on food prices and would inevitably affect the next cotton harvests in this Africa's top lint producer. Cotton production is expected to suffer from late arrival of the rains, normally awaited in May but which last year only started falling mid-July. The meteorological services bureau reported a "premature end" to the rains in September when crops were beginning to flower in the west, southwest and the south of the country and just before they matured in the northern parts of the country. The fall in production will be felt more in the southern regions, the west and the southwest where the variety of crops grown there generally take long, about six months.

BANGLADESH - Rural people in Sylhet region are passing hard days due to food shortage caused by recurring floods and for lack of work, and the high prices of rice and other essentials.

PERU - Winter in Peru this year saw temperatures fall to their lowest levels for the last 30 years. The departments hardest hit are at altitudes of over 2500 metres, in the central and southern Andean region, with more than 700,000 people affected. There was a shift in the focus of aid following the August earthquake, leaving the victims of the cold helpless. 60,000 of those hardest hit in four departments are facing serious food shortages: Apurimac, Ayacucho, Huancavelica and Puno.

AUSTRALIA - A WORSENING GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGE is a problem far more urgent than climate change, top Australian scientists have warned. The problem was more urgent even than climate change, because it will get us first...through famine and war. In Australia, prices for some staple foods had risen by as much as 60 per cent in the past year, and dramatic price rises are expected to sweep across all staples in the near future. DAIRY PRODUCTS, GRAIN, POULTRY had seen the strongest price rises in recent months. Beef and lamb were forecast to follow, with nationwide livestock shortages taking the average price for a cow from $700 a head 12 months ago to $1400 a head going into autumn. The security of our food supply is "the global scientific challenge of our time". "This situation brings with it the very real possibility of regional and global instability. Investment in global food stability is now defence spending and requires proportionate priority." Farmers face challenges posed by drought, climate change, rising oil prices, erosion and nutrient loss combined with more demand for food stocks and biofuels. Global grain stocks have fallen to their LOWEST LEVEL SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN in 1960, while Australia's sheep flock is at its LOWEST SINCE THE MID-1920s, with about 86 million. In September last year the Australian Bureau of Statistics found consumers were paying 11.9 per cent more for basic food items than they were two years before.
AUSTRALIA - The humble roast chicken dinner is fast becoming a luxury meal - the result of the ongoing drought - and things are only going to get worse with food prices and housing pushing up inflation and power getting dearer. Consumer Price Index figures show the rising cost of food ripping through consumers' wallets. One of the biggest cost blowouts over the past year has been a 21.5 per cent surge in the prices of vegetables. The price of bread jumped 8 per cent. In the September quarter alone, fruit costs were up 9.6 per cent and vegetables prices up 7.9 per cent. The Australian Chicken Meat Federation warned that the cost of chicken meat could rise 20-30 per cent from next month. Escalating feed grain prices and rising fuel costs made the increase inevitable, it said. The CPI figures showed sharp rises in the cost of fast foods (up 4.0 per over 12 months) and restaurant meals (up 3.7 per cent). Agri-business Futuris Corporation warned consumers that food prices are set for a big rise, as well as a jump in the cost of living. Other significant contributors to annual inflation are housing costs, including skyrocketing rents.

BRITAIN - The price of Britain's favourite drinks - beer and tea - are set to soar as producers struggle to cope with rising costs. Industry experts believe the average price of a pint of beer could soon hit £4 ($8.50) while tea drinkers face a 25% rise. A shortage of tea from Kenya, Britain's biggest supplier, and surging malted barley prices are being blamed for the price hikes. Tribal violence and a delay to the rainy season in Kenya created the shortage. Brewing giant Scottish and Newcastle, which makes Foster's lager in Britain, has already increased its wholesale prices by 5.7 percent due to of an 80 percent leap in the cost of barley.

Wednesday, February 20 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
I would be the most content if my children grew up to be the kind of people
who think decorating consists mostly of building enough bookshelves.
Anna Quindlen

This morning there has been a 7.5 quake in SIMEULUE in Indonesia's Aceh province. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center canceled a tsunami warning after two hours.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/19/08 -
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.6 BATAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES

BAJA - There are a lot of jangled nerves in the California-Mexico border region following the latest jolt in an earthquake swarm that's been going on for nearly two weeks. The biggest one so far today measured 5.0 by the U.S. Geological Survey and 5.3 in a seismic network operated by Mexico. It struck at 2:41 local time about 20 miles southeast of the U.S. border city of Calexico. There are no reports of any injuries or damage on the U.S. side. It was the fourth moderate quake since the swarm began on February 8th.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Strong winds, big waves and high tides pounded southeast Queensland's coastline today, closing nearly all beaches. A low pressure system off the Queensland coast is whipping up heavy swells, while high tides are expected to add to the damage to beaches already eroded by wild storms earlier this year. Gold Coast beaches have been pounded by mountainous surf over the past few weeks, causing serious erosion and creating sand cliffs. On the Sunshine Coast, five metre swells at sea were becoming waves of around 2m on the beaches. The heavy swell would mean today's high tide would be over the 2m king tide level.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 547 nmi NNW of Perth, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Residents in Coral Bay on Western Australia's northwest coast remain on red alert today despite tropical cyclone Nicholas being downgraded in strength. The Bureau of Meteorology said category-one Nicholas was rapidly losing potency but warned gale-force winds were still expected around Coral Bay and further down the coast. Although it was downgraded overnight, the storm system was still packing winds of up to 75 km/h, with gusts as strong as 120 km/h. "The rain, however, will be more of a blessing than a curse as it is expected to move further inland and fall on agricultural areas."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - At least 10 people were killed and six were missing in flooding and landslides triggered by weeklong rains in the eastern Philippines. FREAK weather brought heavy rains and flooding to some parts of Visayas and Luzon, sending hundreds of villagers to rooftops as floodwaters rose. The rains may have abated on Tuesday but many people in remote areas in Samar have resorted to eating raw bananas. Relief goods could not reach them with many roads still blocked or submerged in water. Eastern Samar province reported estimated damages of over P34 million to rice crops and fruit-bearing trees. Nonstop rains in the mountain ranges of Oriental Mindoro Monday night caused flooding and swelling of the river known as Mag-asawang Tubig, and displaced 4,300 families. The Camarines provinces were beset with intermittent rains and occasional wind surges, while Legazpi City had ankle-deep floods.

SOUTH AFRICA - Eastern Cape FREAK storm devastates village - A flash hailstorm, accompanied by strong winds, has left a youth dead and destroyed several homesteads at Mekeni village near Ngqamakwe in the Eastern Cape. The freak storm flattened some homes, leaving about 50 families destitute and causing damage estimated at thousands of rands.

AUSTRALIA - Storms again lashed Queensland on Wednesday, with most beaches closed in the south-east while further north Rockhampton faces its second flood in less than a month. Parts of Rockhampton were swamped three weeks ago when the flood-swollen Fitzroy River isolated some 150 homes, cut roads and collapsed a sewerage pipe. The weather bureau said the Fitzroy was expected to peak at Rockhampton around 7.7 metres on Sunday - 15cm higher than recorded at the end of last month. A rogue system dumped A RECORD 624mm of rain in Mackay in 10 hours on Friday in what forecasters have described as a ONE-IN-200-YEAR EVENT. The disaster could lead to higher prices for groceries and other produce because supply routes to central Queensland have been disrupted.

CONNECTICUT - The relentless rain has been causing flooding issues in parts of the state. Monday’s flooding was exacerbated by last Wednesday's 2 to 4 inches of rain, on top of melted snow and ice that melted away with the higher temperatures. All of the rain added up to a RECORD-BREAKING month. At Bradley International Airport, 7.64 inches of rain and melted snow has fallen, breaking the old record of 7.27 inches set back in 1981. Records at Bradley International go back 103 years. What makes this record so EXTRAORDINARY is that the state broke it on the 18th of the month, with 11 more days to add to the total.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
LEBANON - A severe snowstorm battered Lebanon on Tuesday, cutting off mountain roads and unleashing landslides that sent tons of garbage from a notorious seaside dump crashing into the Mediterranean. The country's interior was isolated, with many villages and towns at an altitude of 800 meters (1100 feet) above sea level blanketed by thick layers of snow. Electricity was disrupted across many parts of the country. It was the second severe snowstorm to hit the region in three weeks, marking a particularly harsh winter in the usually temperate Mediterranean region. The snowstorm also hit Israel and the Palestinian territories, covering Jerusalem's holy shrines in white.

CALIFORNIA - storms are coming on the heels of TWO OF THE COLDEST MID-FEBRUARY DAYS ON RECORD in Monterey. With a high of only 51 recorded Monday, that tied the record going back to 1949 for the coldest Feb. 18 in the books. Sunday's high of 52 was the second-coolest Feb. 17 on record. "It's not supposed to be this cold at this time of the year." The average high temperature for Feb. 18 is 61 — 10 degrees higher than Monday's high.

OREGON - Clearing last month's massive landslide that wiped out Union Pacific railroad tracks near Oakridge will take at least six more weeks and cost millions of dollars. Conditions on Coyote Mountain, where the slide took place, are still too unstable to further determine time and cost. The slide cut the railroad's main north-south line in Western Oregon. The 15 daily freight trains using the tracks have been rerouted, some through Bend and some as far east as Salt Lake City, creating delays of from 24 to 48 hours. The Jan. 19 slide was the railroad's WORST NATURAL DISASTER IN OREGON IN 40 YEARS. It has been complicated by heavy snowfall and downed trees. The slide, covering 60 acres, obliterated 1,500 feet of track in one spot and 150 feet in another.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

"We can't ask, 'Is there global warming?' We have to ask, 'How can we adapt?' even though IT'S SCARIER THAN HECK." A growing number of communities and states concerned about climate change are planning ways to cope with rising tides, severe weather, less snow and even "climate refugees" from coastal areas. At least five U.S. coastal states — Alaska, California, Maryland, Oregon and Washington — are working on preparedness plans. Many communities focus on cutting emissions and conserving energy, but "if we don't take steps to adapt, we're missing half the picture." A Miami-Dade County task force is developing new standards for buildings, roads, ports, airports and bridges assuming "sea level rise, saltwater intrusion and severe weather." Keene, New Hampshire, released a plan in November that recommends installing larger culverts for rain runoff, burying power lines and anticipating needs for people fleeing rising seas. Homer, Alaska, issued a plan in December that recommends boosting firefighting capability, diversifying its fishing economy and planning for climate refugees. "The most expensive thing we can do is nothing."

The Prince of Wales has called for a "war" on climate change, warning that the world faces a catastrophe without a "revolutionary" approach to the threat. He delivered an apocalyptic warning that time is running out unless there is concerted action. "For me, the crux of the problem is - and I only pray I will be proven wrong - that the doomsday clock of climate change is ticking ever faster towards midnight. We are simply not reacting quickly enough. We cannot be anything less than courageous and revolutionary. If we are not, the result will be catastrophe for all of us, but with the poorest in our world hit hardest of all. In this sense, it is surely comparable to war. The lives of billions of people depend on your response and none of us will be forgiven by our children and grandchildren if we falter and fail. I don’t think there is a more urgent issue for any of us to be addressing at work, at home, and indeed in every facet of our lives, than climate change." We are fast drifting towards a climatic disaster that could lead to humanitarian catastrophe, economic recession and dramatic environmental change."

Tropical deforestation to grow biofuel is a global catastrophe and has probably contributed as much to climate change as CO2 from fossil fuels ever will.

Another subprime-mortgage-meltdown-sized risk could be looming for investors: global warming. That alarm was sounded at an investor summit at the United Nations headquarters, which warned that the vast majority of companies are ill-prepared for the Earth's changing climate. Many oil producers, utilities and manufacturing plants have yet to factor in the added expense if the United States - as is expected in the next few years - imposes caps on carbon-dioxide emissions. Similarly, many companies with big real-estate holdings in U.S. coastal regions haven't calculated their exposure to increased tropical storms and rising seas. Most of the financial institutions that lend to these companies and the insurance companies that protect them also have yet to adequately consider how they might get burned. "It's like subprime mortgages...one of longest kept secrets of uncalculated risk. By not acting on climate change...we face the same kind of [risks] with what we're seeing in subprime."
The stock market and its most savvy players are coming together to solve THE BIGGEST LONG-TERM THREAT AGAINST THE WORLD. Institutional investors are committing billions of dollars to investments in climate change and are embarking on a bold new action plan to raise the profile of energy efficiency and clean technologies around the world. Nearly 50 leading U.S. and European investors representing more than $8 trillion of assets met on Feb. 14 at the United Nations to lay out a timetable for their commitments to global climate change and to call on governments and other investors to act with their money as well. "Our goal is to transform the world economy into one that is clean, green and sustainable." And here's the icing on the cake: A McKinsey Global Institute report says that major investments over the next decade in energy productivity - the level of output achieved from the energy consumed - could earn double-digit rates of return for investors.

CALIFORNIA - Quit studying, start PREPARING for firestorms - In unveiling a report on regional firefighting strategies at a news conference Tuesday, a former San Diego fire Chief said, "Much of what government does is this." And he stooped down to pick up a pile of documents nearly a foot thick. "This is what we produced after the (2003) Cedar fire. There is no need for more studies. The time for action is now." The San Diego Regional Fire Safety Forum outlined a checklist of actions they believe the region must take to avoid a similar catastrophe to the Cedar fire.

CANADA - RECORD HIGH for Feb. 18 set in Charlottetown - Accompanying the record temperatures were heavy rains, with more than 47 mm. of rain falling throughout the day, causing flooded streets and highways.

ODD -
BRITAIN - A savage fish that eats everything it comes across, including people, has been hooked by a British fisherman — sparking fears of a deadly invasion. The giant snakehead, originating from South-East Asia, has a mouth crammed with teeth. It’s deadly in the water, but it can also “crawl” on land and survive out of water for up to four days. The discovery of the fish in Linconshire, northern England, has caused widespread panic amongst conservationists and anglers. "This is the ultimate invasive species - if it starts breeding here it’s a disaster.” “It had a gob full of razor-sharp teeth. To be honest it looked terrifying.” It is believed the fish may have been smuggled in for an aquarium and illegally released. (photo)

MEDITERRANEAN SEA - For years, Mediterranean beaches have been plagued by jellyfish in the summer. Now scientists are reporting that the problem is far worse than they had feared – and that a new generation of the poisonous creatures is poised to overwhelm the sea. Jellyfish are now active throughout the winter too, building up strength for their annual assault upon the Mediterranean's northern shore. What's more, they won't be going away. "We have found that they come ashore just as frequently in the winter months, although no one notices. We've established that they proliferate off our shores all year round. It means the situation is much more serious than we thought...Conditions in recent years have been ideal: very mild and with little rain, with none of the winter rainstorms and icy blasts we usually experience, and with UNUSUALLY warm sea temperatures...these are ideal conditions for jellyfish, and they've become a continuously present phenomenon, not just a seasonal one." Overfishing on a global scale has left jellyfish without the big fish and crustaceans that are their natural predators, and without small fish, such as sardines and whitebait, that compete with them for minute marine creatures and plankton. "Jellyfish are left with all the food they want, so they can reproduce without limit." Jellyfish are not actually fish, but a kind of giant plankton that cannot swim, driven this way and that by winds and currents. "Jellyfish are a natural part of the marine environment, but the scale of what's happening now is a warning that SOMETHING'S GOING VERY WRONG." Do we then face a return to primeval slime? "A lot of pressures are pushing in that direction. The mechanisms are there to make that happen. Ecosystems are flexible up to a point, but no one knows when elasticity breaks into a different sort of ecosystem and you get an irreversible shift. This plague of jellyfish is a like hazard warning light. It's a wake-up call." Jellyfish plagues have happened before, in cycles of seven to 10 years. But recent cycles are shorter, and every year for the last two decades, the blooms have become bigger, denser and longer lasting. The Mediterranean's temperature is now two to three degrees warmer than its usual winter minimum, in a clear symptom of global warming, while lack of rainfall has caused a drop in the volume of cooler fresh water entering it from the sky, and from rivers. As a result, the Mediterranean is turning into a warmer, saltier soup that puts off larger creatures, but in which jellyfish thrive.

SPACE WEATHER -
WASHINGTON - 2/19/08 - Spectacular meteor lights up the morning - Early risers report a shooting star ‘like an exploding firework’. Early risers across Clark County saw a meteor, described as blue or green in color, streak across the clear, dark sky around 5:30 a.m. Tuesday. The meteor passed from west to east, with news outlets across Washington, Oregon and Idaho reporting local sightings. “It started out way high in the sky, like a basic shooting star. As it traveled eastward and downward, it just started getting bigger and bigger. It went from white to bright green to white. It looked like it hit in the east, and it lit up the whole sky like sheet lightning.” A pilot saw the meteorite hit the Earth about 5:45 a.m. The pilot reported a flash and a burst of light near state Highway 26 and the Lind-Hatton Road in eastern Washington’s Adams County. But it’s RARE that a piece of space debris makes it through Earth’s atmosphere and smacks the soil. Even fireballs, larger meteors that appear brighter than the planet Venus, typically don’t make it through. “Nine out of 10 times, they burn up." If there’s a meteorite to be found, it will likely be a dense, iron-rich mass. The glowing green streak in the sky is a typical signature of an iron meteorite. “It was extremely bright and lit up the morning sky with its red, orange, yellow and green glow. To me, it looked like a huge fireball falling slowly from the sky.” Someone spots a fireball in this area about once per year, typically on clear winter nights. But those who spotted Tuesday’s meteor count it as a singular experience. “I think this is one of those once-in-a-lifetime events.”
The fireball exploded not once but twice in midair, casting shadows and rivaling city lights. Many onlookers wondered if spy satellite USA 193 had been shot down. No, it was a small asteroid breaking up in Earth's atmosphere. Reports of meteorites hitting the ground remain unconfirmed.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
Fears of a fresh bird flu outbreak sent prices of basic goods in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) soaring by up to 50 percent in early February. Prices of rice have shot up drastically and are expected to definitely rise by at least another 30 percent this month.

SHORTAGES / CROP FAILURES -
If food plants could thrive on salty water and searing heat, how wonderful it would be. Now, a research team in Beersheba has identified plant genes that can be altered to increase plant tolerance to heat, drought and salinity, facilitating survival in more arid regions. Temperature extremes, drought and saline soils are three main causes of low crop yields. It is estimated that by 2025, a 40% increase in crop yield will be needed to support the ever-growing world population. "Ideally, we would like to create varieties of staple crops such as corn and rice that are more tolerant to multiple environmental stresses."

Experts make GRIM PREDICTIONS FOR GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY - The amount of food available has dropped fairly precipitously since about the year 2000. A group of academics believes the problems with increasing fuel costs and rising interest rates will be insignificant compared to looming global food shortages. Experts are discussing the growing scarcity of food and rising prices. "There's drought, there's biofuels, which is taking over a lot of agricultural land area, where we are burning millions of tonnes of grain in our cars these days, which we could be eating or feeding to animals. There is the impact of climate change and particularly we are running out of land and we are running out of water."

Climate change could cause severe crop losses in South Asia and southern Africa over the next 20 years, a study in the journal Science says. The findings suggest southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%. The effects in these two regions could be catastrophic without effective measures to adapt to climate change. THE SCALE AND SPEED OF THE EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE SURPRISED THE SCIENTISTS. The majority of the world's one billion poor depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Yet it is also "the human enterprise most vulnerable to climate change". While relatively inexpensive changes, such as switching crops or altering planting seasons, could trim the losses, "the biggest benefits will likely result from more costly measures, including the development of new crop varieties and expansion of irrigation."

FLORIDA - The two-year drought gripping nearly all of Florida has extracted a toll in the hundreds of millions of dollars from the state's agriculture industry and people could begin seeing a pinch in the produce aisle next month. The value of the state's agricultural products - including citrus, cattle and landscape plants - dropped about $860 million, or 11 percent, between 2005 and 2006. Those are the latest years with complete figures available. "It's too early to tell but consumers could see prices go up 10 or 20 percent." Even if supermarkets replace the stunted Florida crops with imports, the countries they come from could raise prices to meet the bigger demand. "There's only a finite supply." Citrus fruit is slower to mature during drought - "the honeybells are one notch smaller." It could get worse. An agriculture department study estimates that if drought conditions don't ease by the end of summer, the cost to agriculture could hit $1 billion, or 14.5 percent, for 2008.

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OIL - The price of oil in New York has SPIKED TO A RECORD $US100.10 a barrel in the wake of supply concerns. The market rallied amid speculation that OPEC, which supplies about 40 per cent of the world's oil, would cut output at its March 5 meeting in Vienna. Another factor was the ongoing row between Venezuela and ExxonMobil over nationalised assets of the US giant.

INDONESIA - SOYABEANS - Earlier this year, Indonesia was forced to take emergency action to calm street protests over RECORD SOYABEAN PRICES triggered by US farmers reducing the crop to grow more corn for biofuel. Rising Chinese demand for soyabeans and bad harvests in Argentina and Brazil have also contributed to the jump, which saw Indonesia suffer THE BIGGEST FOOD-RELATED PROTESTS SINCE LAST YEAR'S Mexican tortilla crisis. 10,000 people took to the streets in Jakarta to complain about the rising cost of one of the country's staple foods. The government had already responded to the protests by lifting import controls on a commodity that had hit an all-time global high of $13.20 a bushel that week, an increase of almost 90 per cent on last year's level. Indonesian prices have risen even higher. "I think the social situation with soyabeans will probably get worse before it gets better." The social tensions in the country follow unrest in Pakistan after shortages of WHEAT and Egypt's ban on RICE exports to maintain local supply. The UN has warned that global food inflation could trigger social unrest and force governments to reintroduce price controls to maintain stability.

AUSTRALIA - BEEF - Consumers face paying up to 20% more for beef as spiralling grain prices and low margins force farmers away from expensive cattle feeding regimes, leaving many of the nation’s feedlots empty. The number of cattle in feedlots nationally has fallen 35 per cent from the same time last year, with WA numbers halved to just 28,000 head. “The reports coming through for a retailer are quite frightening. We are nervous about continual future supplies of high-grade product.”
AUSTRALIA - RICE - the rice harvest will be down a MASSIVE 90%, while the sorghum crop is tipped to soar by 80% to a RECORD 2.45 million tonnes in 2007-08. The area planted for sorghum, which is used in livestock feed, is estimated to be about 800,000 hectares — more than one-quarter up on last year. A lack of irrigation water meant only 2000 hectares of rice were planted — the lowest since the industry began in the early 1920s. Cotton production is down 58%.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The true civilization is where every man gives to every other
every right that he claims for himself.
Robert Ingersoll

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/18/08 -
5.0 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
2/17/08 -
5.3 TONGA
5.5 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.3 TAIWAN
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology in Canlaon City has monitored the INCREASING ABNORMALITY of Kanlaon volcano. Three volcanic quakes were recorded within 24 hours. Continuous eruption of clouds and fogs were also monitored. Contrary to reports that Philvolcs has lifted the alert status on Kanlaon volcano as its activity has returned to normal, it's slightly elevated unrest could possibly lead to steam ash ejections. There is still no recommendation for possible evacuation of residents outside the four-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone.

MARIANA ISLANDS - The Northern Marianas Emergency Management Office says it is continuing to monitor closely the volcano on Anatahan island. The Department of Public Health last week urged people with respiratory problems to remain indoors after the continued emitting of gas and steam. The government earlier issued an alert over the sulphur laden winds that enveloped the islands of Saipan and Tinian. Anatahan becomes a real problem for locals when the wind changes. “If there is a change of wind direction and if it’s the northerly wind it will blow a possible ash and gas and so forth to Saipan and extending down to Guam.” Last month, the Governor again renewed the emergency declaration on Anatahan, saying the island is still unsafe for human habitation. The declaration has been in place since May 2003.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - The body of a missing 42-year-old Berkeley woman who was swept off Gualala Beach by a wave on Saturday was discovered early Monday morning. She was dragged into the ocean by a large wave as she attempted to rescue her dog from the frigid surf. Witnesses in Gualala reported seeing her disappear about noon into the 10-foot high swells off Gualala Point Regional Park just south of the Sonoma-Mendocino County line. She was the second person in five weeks to be swept off the Sonoma Coast while trying to rescue a dog. It was the third drowning at Portuguese Beach since 1987. Also Saturday, a 27-year-old was swept off rocks by a rogue wave in Monterey just after midnight. Authorities warn people to always keep their eye on the ocean and watch for abnormally large waves — often referred to as sleeper waves or rogue waves. These freak waves often roll in with a set of average size waves that give people a false sense of safety. A rogue wave rises up out of the ocean quickly with UNUSUAL size and strength, and can easily knock down people and animals and drag them out into the ocean.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone IVAN was 561 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 549 nmi WSW of Broome, Australia.

MADAGASCAR - At least two people died and hundreds were left homeless in Madagascar, as Cyclone Ivan brought chaos. The cyclone hit the north-east coast on Sunday with winds of around 200 kph, bringing with it torrential rain. The cyclone knocked out mobile phone and radio networks. The unexpected communications blackout means the fate of nine people, reportedly trapped in a collapsed hotel on Sainte Marie, remains uncertain. The authorities say every area that the cyclone has passed through is now experiencing flooding. Roads into the worst affected areas have been washed away. The storm is now moving down the west coast of Madagascar and heading for Mozambique on the African mainland.

AUSTRALIA - Chevron Corp.'s Australian unit halted production Monday at two oil fields off the northwest coast, bringing shutdowns triggered by tropical cyclone Nicholas to more than 40% of the nation's total crude-oil output. Chevron Australia moved non-essential workers from the Barrow and Thevenard islands and shut down 9,000 barrels a day of production. The northwest coastline is the nation's most cyclone-prone region, with an average of five striking it between November and April each year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau is warning of "hurricane-force" winds offshore and "VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS" near the center of the storm. Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest iron-ore exporter, halted rail operations from mines in the Pilbara region in the northwest after the cyclone forced the closure of ports and brought hurricane-force winds. Rail shipments were suspended after the company stopped loading vessels on Feb. 16.
AUSTRALIA - Damaging winds and 3.5 metre-waves were expected to lash Fraser Island, while the rest of the state's south coast remains on high alert for more wild weather. A severe weather warning remains in place as a tropical low moves south, bringing with it wind gusts up to 90km/h. Wild conditions are expected to affect the coast between Fraser Island and the Gold Coast in coming days. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, but will still see coastal areas experience gale force winds, large waves and potential minor flooding in low-lying areas. High tides over coming days are predicted to see wave peaks well over the highest tides of the year. Meanwhile, clean-up efforts continue in the flood-ravaged Central Queensland town of Mackay as authorities examine the full extent of damage caused by heavy rain and flash-flooding last Friday. Emergency Management Queensland is also keeping a close eye on the low pressure off the state's coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Lijiang's Yulong Snow Mountain reopens after RARE windstorm - After getting shut down by intense recent winds that were strong enough to rip a 100-year old tree out of the earth by its roots, Lijiang's Yulong Snow Mountain reopened last Friday. On February 8, Lijiang's Yulong Naxi Autonomous Prefecture was hit by RARE intense windy weather that damaged more than 550 homes and affected 2,100 villagers. Elderly residents who had spent their entire lives in the area said that THEY HAD NEVER WITNESSED WINDS AS POWERFUL as they experienced last week. The windstorm - which came just as Lijiang and surrounding areas were beginning to recover from a late winter storm - CONTINUED FOR FOUR DAYS before tapering off on February 12.

MALYASIA - Some 1,100 residents from 29 villages were evacuated from their homes to temporary shelters after non-stop rain since Friday caused floods. Six houses from Kampung Sungoi (crt), Kampung Tambun and Kampung Pancur were completely swept away while two cars from Kampung Rugading were also washed away by the floods. There are no casualties reported yet. Heavy rains also caused seven roads to be cut off including the Pitas-Kanibongan road. The Pitas district is also having flood problems with water levels in some areas reaching up to four meters.

U.S. - Violent storms erupted across the central Gulf Coast on Sunday, with heavy downpours, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Dozens of people were injured by the severe storms that raked areas of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle. 27 people were injured and about 200 homes were damaged or destroyed by a tornado that struck Prattville, Alabama. A tornado touched down in Roberta, Georgia, injuring at least eight people and damaging dozens of structures. Meanwhile, five people were injured by an unconfirmed tornado in Collirene, Alabama, while a woman was struck by lightning in Elba. Flooding occurred over the weekend from Missouri through the Great Lakes. Many roads were closed by high water. A man was found dead in Forland, Missouri, likely after his vehicle was swept off a road by rapidly rising flood waters. Chicago had a RECORD RAINFALL on Sunday of 1.10 inches. This breaks the old record of 1.02 inches set back in 1887.
PENNSYLVANIA - "This month is already a record-breaker in that we had 2.87 inches of rain in 24 hours in the Stroudsburgs, which is an ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FEBRUARY...The storm last week dropped a total 3.39 inches of rain and 4.1 inches of snow. That was more snow than we had in all of January. February is normally the driest month of the year, with an average precipitation of three inches." The first two weeks of February had a total of 6.15 inches of precipitation, which is double the norm for the month. Monday's storm was predicted to break the previous record for February rainfall — 7.33 inches set in February, 1981 — making February 2008 THE WETTEST FEBRUARY EVER in the Poconos. Other weather anomalies in the area this month included thunderstorms and a record high of 61 degrees on Feb. 6. Nationally, about 100 tornadoes have been recorded, the highest number observed in any February since record-keeping began. "Literally, it has been a slew of spring storms followed by harsh winter temperatures. On the opposite side, the western states and the upper Midwest have been battered by record-breaking snowfalls west of the Mississippi Valley."

OHIO - High winds led to more than 13,000 power outages in Greater Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky on Sunday. “It’s UNUSUAL in February to have these types of temperatures. This is more March or April kind of weather. With this kind of weather, high winds come with it.” Most outages occurred after trees fell into power lines or lines snapped from high winds.

FLORIDA - Last Tuesday, the National Weather Service office in Miami issued two tornado warnings for Palm Beach County. A tornado warning is a RARE event in South Florida. To have two, simultaneously and at 11 at night, was EXTRAORDINARY. In addition, the radar returns showed a classic "hook echo," the type of radar signature that is common in Oklahoma and Kansas. While the storms looked impressive and had the potential to cause damage, no significant problems were reported across the region.
This appears to be the Year of the Tornado. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the first six weeks of 2008 have seen a big increase in the number of twisters. In January, 79 confirmed tornadoes touched down across the United States, more than double the monthly average of 39. And, through the first two weeks of February, the trend has continued. The Storm Prediction Center reports 95 tornadoes so far this month, well above the monthly average of 28. Most of those February tornadoes occurred in the terrible outbreak of Feb. 5 and 6 when 79 tornadoes tore through 10 states claiming 57 lives. It was the LARGEST TORNADO OUTBREAK EVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. The above-average number of twisters so far this year is a bit surprising considering the strong La Niña weather pattern. The Climate Prediction Center reported last week that the La Niña (the cooler-than-average water temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) continued to strengthen. Ordinarily, La Niña means a mild, dry weather pattern for the southeastern United States. Obviously there can be exceptions, and that is what we've seen so far this year with the increase in tornadoes. And while forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center expect the La Niña conditions to continue through spring and early summer, more tornadoes are likely, especially in the historically active period of April and May.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA's mines could face a wave of accidents as collieries shut by the freezing weather resume operations, the country's top safety agency has warned. Many mines lost power and had to close because of snow that hit much of China in January and early February. They could face gas build-up, unstable power supply and flooding as they start up again. Mines are currently under pressure to increase coal supply to snow-hit areas. Unusually severe blizzards hit large areas of central and southern China at the beginning of the year, blocking transport links and causing widespread chaos. Power lines were broken, leaving millions without electricity, and problems were exacerbated by delays to vital deliveries of coal to power stations. According to a statement posted on the website of the State Administration of Work Safety, more than 2,000 mines were facing problems. Gas had built up in about 1,800 mines in the provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou and Yunnan because of power cuts, and another 600 mines had been flooded. "Power supply to coal mines in disaster-hit provinces is not operating normally, leading to many hidden dangers. The safety situation is much more serious than in previous years." China's mines are among the most dangerous in the world, with more than 3,000 deaths reported each year.
Freezing weather has again swept through southern China, leaving 180,000 people stranded and causing power outages, just as the region was recovering from the last cold snap.
About 100,000 migratory birds disappeared in the recent fierce snow storms in eastern China. About 95 percent of the world's white cranes, half of the white-naped cranes and 60 percent of swan geese are believed to migrate to a nature reserve at Poyang Lake each year in Jiangxi province. Hundreds of workers at the reserve distributed grain, corn and vegetables but found only 40,000 birds, leaving about 100,000 unaccounted for. No mass deaths have been uncovered and the birds could have migrated elsewhere. But the reserve was still concerned and was planning to employ helicopters to widen the search for the missing birds.

AUSTRALIA - The majority of New South Wales is in for THE COOLEST FEBRUARY IN 50 YEARS, following THE HOTTEST AUSTRALIAN JANUARY ON RECORD. Temperatures in the state's NSW Central West have been up to six degrees cooler than average, with the region's main centre Dubbo yet to reach it's average 32 degrees this month. It has been a similar story in Sydney where the average February temperature to date this year sits at 24.3 degrees, well below the long-term average of 25.8 degrees, putting the city on target for its coldest February since 1957. "We have only had one day over 30 degrees and that is the lowest since 1952."

ISRAEL - JANUARY THE COLDEST IN THE LAST 15 YEARS - The forecasters were predicting snow in Jerusalem last night; if this indeed happened, it would be Jerusalem's third snowfall of the season. But while "this is not something especially common, something that happens every year, neither is it exceptional." Jerusalem gets two snowfalls a year about every five years. In the winter of 2000-2001, the city had snow three times, and in 1999-2000, it had four snowy days. In 1991-1992, an especially harsh winter, the capital had 10 days of snow. Forecasters attributed the general feeling that this winter has been especially severe, not to the precipitation, but to last month's UNUSUAL cold. In most parts of the country, this was the coldest January since 1992, and during the first of its two cold spells, in mid-month, temperatures in SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY HIT ALL-TIME LOWS. January was also UNUSUAL for how many cold days in a row there were. Sde Boker, for instance, experienced six days in a row of temperatures below zero degrees Celsius - the LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE 1964. In contrast, February has thus far been a typical winter month. However, "the current cold front might send us below the average."

LEBANON - A new winter storm started to batter Lebanon on Monday noon, spreading heavy rainfalls, snow, speedy winds and thunderstorms across the country, with weather forecasters expecting the tempest to recede as of Thursday. Southern regions saw torrential rains and biting cold on Monday afternoon, with hailstorms hitting most of the South. In Sidon, hailstorms, strong winds and sea currents shut down the city's harbor. Heavy rains left the southern port city's streets flooded and turned them into fast-flowing rivers. A severe snowstorm gripped Lebanon last month, when snow fell along the coast for the first time in years. It isolated several villages across the country, damaged agricultural crops and played havoc with electricity and telephone cables. Separately, residents of the southern regions which had been rocked by an earthquake earlier last week urged the relevant authorities on Monday to provide them with the assistance they need with the start of the current storm. Several buildings had suffered cracked walls, causing rainwater to penetrate into their homes.

GREECE, TURKEY - Heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures shut down schools, paralysed traffic and grounded airplanes in Greece and Turkey on Monday. Athens was covered in several centimetres of snow and the outskirts were cut off due to heavy snow and ice on the roadsfollowing two days of snowfall. The Acropolis was also covered by a layer of snow. Athens International Airport struggled to stay open. Police said more than 200 car accidents had been reported in the past 36 hours due to icy roads. In Turkey, where snowfall and subzero temperatures forced the closure of schools and universities across much of the country, the Bosphorus strait was closed to transit shipping in the north-south direction since Sunday morning. The strait is the only navigable waterway between the oil-shipping ports on the Black Sea and the Aegean. "Like Siberia," read the headline in Turkey's Takvim newspaper, above pictures of snow ploughs, heavily wrapped-up pedestrians and a grounded airplane at Istanbul airplane. Hundreds of motorists were stranded around Turkey, some major roads were closed, thousands of villages were cut off and at least two people froze to death on Sunday and Monday. The capital Ankara witnessed 355 traffic accidents over the past 24 hours and nearly 30 people were injured. Temperatures in Ankara were expected to remain below zero until Wednesday. In Istanbul, Turkey's biggest city, the bad weather caused more than 500 accidents. Snow also made a RARE appearance on the islands of Crete and Mykonos early on Monday, while at least 100 villages on the island of Evia, Crete and central Greece were cut off. In mountainous eastern Turkey, night temperatures plunged to minus 20 degrees Celsius, and even parts of Turkey's Mediterranean coast - normally clement in the winter months - experienced RARE snowfall.

RUSSIA - Electric power supply has been restored to 898 apartment houses with over 30,000 tenants on the Sakhalin Island after a cyclone. A powerful cyclone hit Sakhalin the worst on February 16. The snow accretion on power transmission lines caused breakages of wires on 24 lines, which totally or partially left 36 populated localities without electricity. Power supply has been restored to the majority of them by now. The cyclone has created snow avalanche hazard on Sakhalin, the Emergency Situations Ministry’s main department for the Sakhalin region warned on Monday. Eighteen minor avalanches with a volume of 50 to 150 cubic meters have already come down on local roads. All the roads have already been cleared of snow, but the avalanche hazard remains.

WISCONSIN - Southern Wisconsin was again in Mother Nature 's sights Sunday and Monday - though for a change, Madison was spared the heaviest snowfall - with the area getting hit by a trifecta of freezing rain, snow and wind. Madison received 1.36 inches of rain on Sunday, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE of 0.47 inches set in 1975. The storm also brought 3.5 inches of snow to Madison as of 10 p.m. Sunday, putting the city's total snowfall at 83.7 inches, WELL ABOVE THE OLD RECORD of 76.1 inches set in 1978-79. "If it 's starting to feel like we 've had a target on our back in Madison this winter, that's not too far off. We have been placed time and time again in a position where we've gotten near the maximum snowfall for each particular snow event that's come through since Dec. 1. That's VERY UNUSUAL". Snow again closed area schools Monday. "Now we 're looking at probably quite easily getting over 100 inches of snow for the whole season. That's THE EQUIVALENT OF BREAKING BABE RUTH'S ALL-TIME HOME RUN RECORD from 60 all the way up to 80 in one season." It's just luck of the draw that "any time it snows, we're at the epicenter." While Madison's season continues to earn its place in the record books, surrounding areas have received only average or less than average snowfall. Minneapolis, Minnesota, for instance, has received only about two feet of snow. Illinois snowfall is also below normal.

MYSTERY SMELLS -
INDIANA - A rank, rotten-eggs-like smell permeated parts of southern Indiana on Thursday, February 14th, prompting calls to authorities and leading state officials to investigate. The source of the smell wasn’t immediately known, but one possibility was that it was a leaking tank of odorizer that is commonly applied to natural gas lines to alert people to leaks. “It’s offensive to the nostrils, but I’ve not heard of any health risks." Reports started coming in from Orange and Lawrence counties around 6:30 a.m. Thursday. The odor appeared to be dissipating in Lawrence County by 10:30 a.m., but was spreading northward, with reports coming in from Morgan County. “It is following the wind patterns and rolling right through Indiana. IDEM is still trying to track the source, but it may be like finding a needle in a haystack as it is a moving odor.” The Indiana Department of Environmental Management dispatched staff with monitoring equipment to the region to try to find the source. The smell in Monroe County was first reported by residents at The Pointe, which is in the southern part of the county. Some described it as a “sewer gas smell.” “Other people have been describing it as a dead animal smell to a propane smell.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, February 17, 2008 -

There will be no update on Monday, February 18 - President's Day.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Too many have dispensed with generosity in order to practice charity.
Albert Camus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/16/08 -
6.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
2/15/08 -
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 LEBANON - SYRIA REGION

LEBANON - A 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck Beirut, east and south Lebanon at 12:37 pm Friday, causing minor damage and sending many panicked residents into the streets. 10 people were lightly injured in the south. The epicenter of the tremor was a small sliding plateau south of Zrariyeh village in Tyre province, which is not the major sliding plateau that caused a lethal quake in 1956. Lebanon may witness in the coming 15 days a series of aftershocks which should not pose a bigger threat than Friday's quake. Residents of Syria, Jordan, the West Bank and Israel also reported feeling the earthquake. Material damage occurred in the southern villages of Sreefa and Mais al-Jabal and cracks opened in some southern roads. Some villages experienced power cuts. It was the second tremor in a week. A tremor measuring about 4.0 on the open-ended Richter scale struck Lebanon on February 12 and was also felt in Israel. Its epicenter was six kilometers east of Tyre. (photo)

SERBIA - A 4.5 magnitude earthquake shook central Serbia on Friday, causing power outages but no casualties or damage. Serbian media reported that the quake was felt throughout central Serbia, sending panicked residents running out of their homes. Large parts of Cacak, a town 150 kilometers (90 miles) south of the capital, Belgrade, and several nearby villages were left without electricity.

PERU - Six months after the deadly quake devastated part of the Peruvian south, scarcity and complaints by those affected continue, with the government-promised reconstruction showing no significant advances. Authorities and social leaders from Ica region, the most affected, denounced that dozens of thousands of residents are still living in camps, tents, or improvised shelters. Meanwhile, the occupants of such precarious shelters deplored the lack of water and the propagation of insects and rats. Only a few hundred of the houses have been built, but by private initiative, because the promised governmental reconstruction has shown no result at all. For many people, the situation in the cities of Chincha, Ica, and Pisco has the same image of the days after the quake, with rubble still there.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone IVAN was 414 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 212 nmi NW of Port Hedland, Australia.

MADAGASCAR - Emergency services in Madagascar are on high alert for tropical cyclone Ivan which is expected to hit the north-east of the Indian Ocean island. Ivan, a Category Four cyclone, has winds of more than 200km/h (125mph) and is capable of uprooting trees. It is due to make landfall shortly, about 250km (155 miles) north of the capital Antananarivo. Last month at least 13 people died when the first cyclone of the season tore through western parts of Madagascar.

AUSTRALIA - Category three tropical cyclone Nicholas has picked up speed and is likely to approach the North West Cape of Western Australia tomorrow. "At this stage, what looks most likely is a glancing blow on the coast." Nicholas was travelling at 12km/h in a south-westerly direction.

INDONESIA - Typhoon Nicholas has ravaged East Nusa Tenggara the past few days, killing two residents of Kupang and one resident of West Sumba, and destroying hundreds of houses and public facilities in the region. The three victims drowned after being dragged out to sea by heavy waves Wednesday. Friday people panicked and rushed from their homes as the typhoon swept through the area. "Some 300 people who had their homes damaged are still staying in makeshift tents and public facilities." The storm blowing 70 kilometers per hour also damaged hundreds of homes in Rote Ndao and Ende regencies. Heavy rains triggered flash flooding in Ende, Flores Island, submerging hundreds of homes and demolishing four bridges. Some 200 Ende residents were still living in tents. Head of the Kupang Meteorology and Geophysics Agency warned fishermen and inter-island ferries of high tides caused by the typhoon, saying all water activities should be halted until the strong winds ceased. "Tidal waves could occur in all waters of the province. This situation is very dangerous for any marine activities, and that's why we are encouraging people to stay put until the bad weather is over." In Kudus, Central Java, a mother and her child were killed in a landslide early Friday morning. A mass of earth from a cliff on Mount Muria fell onto homes. Local residents said rains had been incessant the past several days, and a number of minor slides had occurred. A large section of the mountain slope in the area is bare of trees because residents had converted the forests into farmland. The condition of the slope on Mount Muria is nearly the same as that of Tawangmangu, in Karanganyar, where a landslide in December last year killed 64 people. Rains have fallen on the north coast of Java from Kendal to Pati since the first week of February. Floods have swamped hundreds of hectares of rice crops in Kudus, Jepara and Pati. Hundreds of homes were also ravaged by floods, mostly due to overflowing rivers.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
COLORADO - More than 1 billion gallons of contaminated water - enough to fill 1,500 Olympic-sized swimming pools - is trapped in a tunnel in the mountains above the historic town of Leadville and threatening to blow. Lake County Commissioners have declared a local state of emergency for fear that this winter's above-average snowpack will melt and cause a catastrophic tidal wave. The water is backed up in abandoned mine shafts and a 2.1-mile drainage tunnel that is partially collapsed, creating the pooling of water contaminated with heavy metals. County officials have been nervously monitoring the rising water pressure inside the mine shafts for about two years. An explosion could inundate Leadville and contaminate the Arkansas River. "It could come out, we just don't know where. We're seeing changes and we're very concerned. We're not crying `Chicken Little' here." A speaker system to broadcast evacuation notices has already been installed near a mobile home park that has 300 residents near the tunnel's portal. "Due to the unknown condition of the tunnel blockage and the large volume of water behind the blockages, we are concerned that an uncontrolled, potentially-catastrophic release of water to the Arkansas River from [the tunnel] is likely at some point," said an EPA letter sent in November. New springs and seepages have appeared at California Gulch, which sits below the plant. Tests have shown high levels of heavy metals typically found in mine discharge, leading officials to conclude the trapped water is finding ways out. "No one can tell us what it means. It's finding fault lines and it's pouring mine-contaminated water into the Arkansas." (photo)

ALABAMA - A line of severe thunderstorms is forecast to hit central Alabama, possibly spawning isolated tornadoes today. The Montgomery area should begin seeing the heavy weather early to mid-afternoon. The storm system was forming Friday in the desert Southwest. "The storms will be associated with an approaching cold front. Along with the possibility of tornadoes, the storms can produce intense lightning, hail and heavy rains." "It's been a busy February as far as bad weather goes. It's more like spring than late winter." Today's storms will be the third round of severe weather the state has seen since Super Tuesday. Seeing this level of severe weather in February is RARE. "The time for the most tornadoes is spring with another spike in November. That goes along with the change of the seasons. February has seen higher than normal temperatures, which has led to the severe weather. But we have been in a very active pattern since mid-January." Changes thousands of miles away in the eastern Pacific Ocean could be at play. "It may be that La Nina is breaking down earlier than anticipated. We have seen more active storm tracks, that could be La Nina loosening up." La Nina is a weather phenomenon of colder than normal water in the eastern Pacific. It usually means milder and drier than normal winter for the Southeast. La Nina was forecast to stay in place until April.

AUSTRALIA - More heavy rain forecast for flooded Mackay region, which has suffered their WORST MONSOONAL DOWNPOUR IN 90 YEARS. 624mm of rain fell in 10 hours on Friday. Two-months worth of rain fell in just 24 hours. The damage bill is expected to run into the tens of millions. The cleanup will continue for weeks, if not months. More than 2000 homes and at least 100 businesses have been affected by flooding, forcing the evacuation of some residents from their homes. An active monsoon trough was near Cardwell, while a strong ridge was along the Queensland coast south of the trough. Damaging wind gusts up to 90km/h are possible near the exposed coast and over the islands south of Bowen.

NEW ZEALAND - Three people, including a two-year-old child, are dead after a violent storm swept the South Island yesterday. Surface flooding was affecting many roads in Canterbury and high winds were also battering parts of the mainland. "It's hideous out there. People need to be aware of the conditions or otherwise more lives will be lost." In Lyttelton Harbour winds gusting up to 55 knots turned the sea into a whirlpool, tossing boats up and down like corks. At the marina a 12-tonne boat broke away from its bow line and crashed into another, sinking it. Another boat was smashed on to the rocks. A severe weather warning for Banks Peninsula and the Otago Coast was issued yesterday as the MetService forecast gale force winds and heavy rain. Surface flooding caused problems in many parts of Christchurch and forced play to be abandoned at the PGA Golf Championship at Clearwater for the second day in a row. About 50mm of rain fell yesterday, more rain in Christchurch in 24 hours than had fallen in months. By late yesterday conditions across the South Island had eased but the storm's path of destruction remained evident through damaged trees and powerlines. But there was good news with the bad - the torrential rain broke the region's drought. Although the wet spell was likely to cause some problems for cereal crops, it was a welcome sight for most farmers. "Even if it stays dry for another couple of weeks this rain will allow good grass growing over that period." It was too early to say whether enough rain had fallen to restore depleted hydro-lake levels.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AFGHANISTAN - The death toll from Afghanistan's harsh winter has hit 926, a figure that could rise further as access to remote areas improves with the thawing snow. More than 316,000 cattle have perished since the onset of winter. More snow is expected in coming days in several parts of the mountainous Central Asian country which may trigger floods and avalanches.

VIETNAM - The northern region will in all likelihood experience a severe drought following the on-going cold snap that has lasted for more than a month. “The cold spell in the north has entered the 34th day to become THE 'LONGEST' IN HISTORY". Forecasts are that it will end on February 18. “Light rain will fall in the north from March, but waters on Da, Thao and Lo rivers in the region are to be between 15-30 percent less than last year, and a drought is likely to occur...Northern localities should store water for production and daily use right now." Major hydro-electric power plant and irrigation projects under construction at upper reaches of big rivers are having an impact on the supply of water for lowland areas. The long severe cold snap has caused breathing and heart problems in many infants and elderly people. The cold spell killed 8,000 cattle and ravaged over 50,000 hectares of rice crops in the northern region, which needs at least 1,000 tonnes of seed rice for replanting on the ravaged rice fields. The northwestern provinces of Son La, Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Lao Cai, and Yen Bai were the hardest-hit localities with each suffering close to VND 30 billion worth in cattle deaths and rice crop damage.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Track Climate Change at Home With Project BudBurst - By noticing when plants bud, flower and leaf out, volunteers can track climate change as part of a nationwide initiative starting Friday. Project BudBurst allows people in every state to enter their observations into an online database that will give researchers a detailed picture of the warming climate. "Climate change may be affecting our backyards and communities in ways that we don't even notice." Each participant in Project BudBurst selects one or more plants to observe. The project website suggests more than 60 widely distributed trees and flowers, with information on each. Users can add their own choices. Participants begin checking their plants at least a week prior to the average date of budburst - the point when the buds have opened and leaves are visible. When participants submit their records online, they can view maps of these events across the United States. Project Budburst

Unique marine life in Antarctica will be at risk from an invasion of sharks, crabs and other predators if global warming continues, scientists warn. Crabs are poised to return to the Antarctic shallows, threatening creatures such as giant sea spiders and floppy ribbon worms. Some have evolved without predators for tens of millions of years. Bony fish and sharks would move in if waters warm further, threatening species with extinction. In the last 50 years, sea surface temperatures around Antarctica have risen by 1 to 2C, which is more than twice the global average.

AUSTRALIA - The drought is causing underground century-old caves to dry out, cracking columns and stopping stalactite growth. At Princess Margaret Rose Caves in far western Victoria, the clay below the floor of the cave has dried because the water table has dropped. "I'VE NEVER EXPERIENCED THE CAVE SO DRY as it is today. All dampness on the formations and all drips on the formations in this cave are caused from rainfall. Our rainfall is nearly half that of the winter of 2006 and we really haven't got over that yet".
Drought is killing wildlife: 'NEVER AS DRY AS THIS' - Years of very low rainfall in the northern Flinders Ranges of South Australia are being blamed for the death of wildlife and hundreds of trees. Experts say river red gums can for live for 1,000 years in dry conditions, but hundreds of the mighty trees in the Flinders are dead or dying. Drought conditions are also affecting native animals. "We are finding euros dying around water holes at the moment which is pretty good indicator that they're getting pretty stressed with lack of food. I've been here for 34 years continuously and I've never seen it as dry as this."

FOOD SHORTAGES / CROP FAILURES -
Wheat market gone wild - Decades from now, farmers will still talk about this week - the moment when wheat in Minneapolis soared to nearly $20 a bushel. Like a 100-year flood, spring wheat prices have risen relentlessly all winter, OBLITERATING EVERY RECORD IN SIGHT. At the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, wheat fever pushed prices to $19.80 a bushel in trading Friday - NEARLY TRIPLE THE RECORD from 1996. To grain experts, it's a warning of what happens when grain supplies don't keep up with rising demand. Fear of scarcity and shortage push markets far beyond any norm. Poor crops worldwide have left wheat supplies at a 60-YEAR LOW. That has pushed corn and soybean prices to near-record levels - fueling a wave of uncertainty about everything from food price inflation to subsidies in the new farm bill to hunger in the developing world. IT IS THE GREATEST RUN-UP IN WHEAT HISTORY, with wheat prices rising fourfold in a single year.

Soybean and soybean oil futures in Chicago SURGED TO A RECORD on speculation that demand from China will climb after winter storms damaged the nation’s rapeseed crop. China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans and vegetable oil. Almost half the autumn and winter rapeseed crop was affected by rain and snow. Soybeans have surged in the past year after U.S. farmers planted the SMALLEST SOYBEAN ACREAGE IN 12 YEARS to sow the most corn since 1944. Prices have also been supported by rain delaying the harvesting in Brazil and concern that record high spring wheat prices may encourage U.S. farmers to plan more grain at the cost of soybean acreage.
Corn, which REACHED A RECORD on Feb. 6, gained 22 percent in the past year on RECORD DEMAND to produce ethanol and feed livestock.

Cocoa - A longer-than-usual dry harmattan season in Nigeria's key south west cocoa farming zone has raised fears of sharp decline in the imminent light crop. Flowers and developing cocoa pods have died in the last few weeks because lack of rainfall and humid weather in the region drained soil moisture needed to sustain them to mature for harvest from early April to September. The harmattan season usually ends in January, but the prolonged dry spell forced an early end to the main crop. The region has not seen rain for weeks, dimming any hope of a good harvest. "This year's light crop in the south west will be THE LEAST EVER IN THE LAST DECADE because there has been no rain at all." A robust light crop, also known as mid crop, was expected to compensate for a decline in the 2007/08 main crop, which was hit by an outbreak of the fungal black pod disease in some farms in the south west before the start of the October to March season. The shortfall pushed the upcountry price of Nigeria's graded cocoa beans up 15 percent in the last month. Weather conditions in the region that borders Cameroon were not as bad as in the south west belt.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

UNUSUAL drug-resistant flu strain - Ten Chicago-area patients have tested positive for an unusual type of drug-resistant influenza, prompting concern and increased surveillance by local and federal health officials.

Thursday, February 14, 2008 -

HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 5.4 quake in RWANDA, and a 6.7 and 6.1 quake in SOUTHERN GREECE.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/13/08 -
6.2 TIMOR SEA
5.2 GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

GREECE - Two strong earthquakes struck southern Greece this morning, sending people rushing out of buildings in areas near the epicenter. There were no immediate reports of injuries. The first quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 6.5, hit just after noon and was felt as far away as Cairo, Egypt. "It was incredibly strong and lasted a long time." The second, which seismologists said was likely a "very strong aftershock of the first, had a preliminary magnitude of 6.4 and hit about two hours later. Both had an epicenter beneath the seabed 140 miles south-southwest of Athens. The first quake struck at a depth of about 18 miles beneath the seabed, which helped prevent it causing serious damage.

RWANDA - The 5.4 earthquake that hit Rwanda's capital of Kigali early today has left at least one injured and sent panicked residents running into the streets. The strong tremor occurred at around 4:00am (local time), less than two weeks after a 6.1 earthquake shook the Great Lakes region in eastern Congo on February 4, killing 45 people, including 38 in Rwanda.

INDONESIA - A strong 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck off the eastern Indonesian province of Maluku yesterday, prompting a tsunami alert that was later lifted.

CALIFORNIA - cities bordering Mexico, including Calexico and El Centro, have been rocked since Friday by hundreds of quakes, from tiny to teeth-rattling. Three have registered a magnitude of 5.0 or more. On Wednesday alone, at least three dozen earthquakes, one a 3.3, registered on the Richter scale. Though the quakes aren't breaking any geologic records, to Calexico residents the shaking has seemed nonstop. The tremors feel "like a big rumble, then all of a sudden the house starts moving." More than 100 buildings in Mexicali are believed to have sustained damage. Similar quake swarms hit the region in May 2006 and in summer and fall of 1999. The region rests atop not only a fault line but also a geothermal area, where past volcanic activity has kept underground rocks hot. That heats the groundwater, which could lubricate local fault lines or change underground stresses.

IRAN - A moderate 4.3 earthquake overnight rattled a remote mountain area in Iran and injured 10 people and damaged 70 buildings.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - High waves that struck coastlines across Indonesia's eastern islands killed one and forced hundreds to flee their homes on Tuesday. "A local tourist aged 16 was swept away yesterday (Tuesday) by waves as high as three metres (10 feet) while he was fishing on the beach." Hundreds of houses along beaches in Sikka district and about 50 others on the nearby island of Alor were damaged by the high waves. Some 300 people were evacuated to emergency shelters. The winds on Wednesday were moving at speeds of up to 70 kilometres (43 miles) per hour. They were whipping up six-metre-high waves, lashing areas on Sumba, Flores and Alor islands in East Nusa Tenggara. A low pressure system off Australia's north was contributing to the wild weather.
With the threat of large waves, strong wind and persistent rain once again hanging over their heads, fisherman remained in their shacks. At least 800 fishermen in the Cilincing and Kali Baru subdistricts have been forced to stay ashore due to rough weather on Java's northern and southern coastlines in recent weeks. Bad weather and high tides over the last two weeks have destroyed 18 houses and severely damaged 25 others in the Kali Baru subdistrict. Every year thousands of fishermen working along Java's coasts suffer the same fate. "Usually waves get higher around Imlek (Chinese New Year), but this year the bad weather has lasted a long time." Over the years the weather has been getting worse, making it harder to catch fish. "Green mussels are caught not far from shore, but to get fish we have to go further and further each year."

AUSTRALIA - Sunshine Coast lifeguards say it will be months before the region's beaches recover from significant erosion. Large swells and king tides have washed away huge amounts of sand over the past two months. Sand is slowly returning to coast beaches, but they will not be replenished until the swell decreases. "Traditionally over the winter months we might ... get a bit lighter swell and those offshore winds and we're probably hoping through this coming winter that we might get a period of low swell which might give the beaches a chance to return."

HAWAII - the Pacific Ocean is bouncing back to life. Taking a radical shift from what has been THE WORST WINTER ON RECORD FOR WAVES IN HAWAII FOR SURFERS, the tail end of February looks like it will be above average by comparison to other La Nina years. A final flurry of big-wave action has begun to pulse through the Hawaiian Island chain with waves to approach giant heights later this week. The Quiksilver Big Wave Invitational is staged each winter at Waimea Bay, on Oahu's North Shore, and only runs when and if wave heights reach a minimum of 20 feet on the Hawaiian wave scale (40-foot wave face heights). Today's swell is forecast to reach 15 to 18-feet Hawaiian scale. Moving beyond Thursday's swell, wave forecasters are looking at regular big-wave episodes every two to three days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone IVAN was 421 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 155 nmi NW of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Authorities in Western Australia have issued a Blue Alert for all communities between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga as Tropical Cyclone Nicholas approaches the coast. The risk to the Kimberley Coast in the next 24 hours is gales developing. (satellite photo)
AUSTRALIA - Tropical Cyclone Nicholas could threaten the Pilbara coast over the weekend. The storm reached category one cyclone intensity Wednesday morning, with gusts of up to 100km/h. "Nicholas is likely to become a severe tropical cyclone in the coming days." The cyclone is expected to move slowly over the next few days before turning towards the coast of the Pilbara region, the heartland of WA's mining boom.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BOLIVIA - some 60,000 families across the country have been affected by severe flooding, which has followed weeks of heavy rain, which started in November. The flooding is expected to get worse as more rain is forecast. The flood waters, which have killed at least 60 people, are threatening to inundate the Amazon city of Trinidad, sparking large-scale evacuations. Rivers have broken their banks and floodwaters are threatening to breach a raised road surrounding the provincial capital, home to some 90,000 people. The government has declared a state of emergency in the worst-hit areas. The rains, which have swept away crops and communication lines, are blamed on the La Nina weather phenomenon. It is the second year in a row that Bolivia has seen such floods and officials are saying that climate change is also to blame. Bolivia is used to seeing heavy rains at this time of year but the latest floods are particularly bad. The floods have caused hundreds of millions of dollars' damage to Bolivia's ranching and agriculture. ( 6 photos )

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
HONG KONG - As Hong Kong shivers through its second-longest cold spell since 1885, scientists point to global warming to explain the abnormal cold weather phenomenon worldwide. UNUSUALLY COLD weather is gripping a number of countries, including China and Canada. "We are seeing EXTREMELY UNUSUAL WEATHER across the world." Hong Kong yesterday recorded its second-longest cold spell - 21 days. The longest cold period lasted 27 days in 1968. That record is expected to remain intact as the thermometer is forecast to register a low of 13 degrees by Sunday. Hong Kong has also experienced more than 456 hours of cold weather this winter - MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RECORD of 205-hours set in January 2004. The cold spell has led to higher admissions to public hospitals.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Alps snow holding up despite RECORD TEMPERATURES - snow cover is good in the Alps and Corsica, but only above 1500 meters. However the Pyrenees is suffering from a second year of poor snow with cover. Snow depths are above average in the Southern Alps following heavy falls in the first half of January. The recent warm and sunny weather has been tempered by clear, cold nights which have helped preserve the snow pack. January has seen temperatures +2.3 °C above average for the whole of France. Records were broken on the 28th of January, +8.6°C at 1970 meters at la Plagne and a whopping +25°C at 700m in the Alps Maritimes. The snow in the Pyrenees has suffered from mild weather and warm southern winds. The French environment ministry has asked people to conserve water. Rainfall has been less than average over much of France since September - 25% less than normal, with 50% less in the Pyrenees and Southern Alps.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Rising food prices have hit Asia's poor so hard that many have taken to the streets in protest, but experts see few signs of respite from the growing problem. An array of factors, from rising food demand and high oil prices to global warming, could make high costs for essentials such as rice, wheat and milk a permanent fixture. Prices globally soared nearly 40 percent in 2007, helping stoke protests in Myanmar, Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Asia's growth has left many of its poor behind. They spend between 50 and 70 percent of their meager incomes on food, making price rises especially debilitating. "There was also a lack of investment in agriculture, particularly in science and technology and in irrigation." Drought and bad weather, high oil prices stoking transport costs, spiking biofuel demand and low reserves have also played their part. In Australia they lost almost a year of wheat due to drought. Cold weather caused grain crops to fail in Europe and the United States, while bird flu culls and disease outbreaks hit Asian poultry and meat supply. Elsewhere, Bangladesh is struggling to feed its poor after a 2007 cyclone destroyed $600 million worth of its rice crop. The price of rice rose around 70 percent in Bangladesh last year. It now stands at around 50 cents per kilo (2.2 pounds), but many Bangladeshis live on less than a dollar per day. More recently, unexpected snowstorms swept across rice growing areas in China, where rising food costs have already raised the fear of unrest. Experts are still wary of pinning the blame for these events explicitly on the impact of global warming. But a study found that climate change could cut South Asian millet, maize and rice production by 10 percent or more by 2030. Farmers are switching to growing crops such as corn or jatropha, a weed, to feed the biofuel industry rather than crops destined for the dinner table. Thailand now requires that all its diesel fuel includes a component made from palm oil, which is also used for cooking. However, the new regulation has sent palm oil prices soaring, contributing to shortages amid shrinking supplies. The amount of US maize used for biofuel has doubled since 2003, and European wheat used for ethanol could rise 12-fold by 2016. Urbanization and industrialization in Asia are eliminating farmland and soaking up scarce water resources. Meanwhile, government policies are trying to push people out of subsistence agricultural lives into the industrial sector and urban jobs. The prospect of high food prices is a sharp break from the past, when the Green Revolution pushed up output but drove down prices in Asia from the late 1960s. Financial speculators have even begun betting the price of items like wheat and rice will rise, making the picture still more volatile.

Canada, the world's second-largest wheat exporter, said its inventories of the grain plunged 30 percent after drought hurt crops in southern growing areas and cool, wet weather damaged plants in the north. Dwindling global inventories have helped send wheat prices to records in recent months. Wheat has more than doubled during the past year on the Chicago Board of Trade. At the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, where high-protein spring varieties trade, futures have nearly tripled from a year ago. The drop in supplies in storage was the largest year-over-year decline on Dec. 31 since 1988, when inventories fell 47 percent. Stockpiles fell to the lowest for the date since 2002. Barley stockpiles fell 4.9 percent as of Dec. 31 and canola dropped 9.3 percent.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Underlying the whole scheme of civilization is the confidence men have in each other,
confidence in their integrity, confidence in their honesty, confidence in their future.
Bourke Cockran

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/12/08 -
5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
6.5 OAXACA, MEXICO

LEBANON - A moderate 4.0 earthquake shook southern Lebanon overnight causing no damage but sending many panicked residents into the streets in the coastal town of Tyre. The last earthquake of such magnitude to shake the country took place in 2001 with its epicenter in the Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon. The Geophysical Institute of Israel measured the tremor at 4.1 and said it was also felt in northern Israel, across the border from Lebanon. Seismology experts in Israel warn of a major earthquake within years because of a major faultline in the region. There have been many small aftershocks.

NORTHERN MEXICO - A moderate 5.1 earthquake rattled northern Mexico's Baja California peninsula on Monday, close to the border with Arizona and California, but Mexican officials reported only minor damage to buildings. The quake was centered just 4.3 miles below the ground, 12 miles northwest of Guadalupe Victoria in Baja California state. The earthquake was part of a swarm that occurred under Cerro Prieto Volcano between February 8-11. Sixteen earthquakes greater than magnitude 3 were recorded over 2.5 days. The earthquakes were tectonic, consistent with activity on the Cerro Prieto fault. Cerro Prieto geothermal field is located at the volcano. The geothermal field began producing electricity in 1973. There is a significant correlation between increases of sustained fluid extraction at the field and earthquakes, with delays of about 1 year.

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO - A strong earthquake of magnitude 6.4 shook southwestern Mexico on Tuesday, the latest in a series of temblors in recent days, but there were no reports of casualties or serious damage. The earthquake hit at 6:50 a.m. local time (7:50 a.m. EST) and was centered about 23 miles northwest of Arriaga, in the state of Chiapas, at a depth of 72 miles. The quake briefly cut off power in the Chiapas state capital, Tuxtla Gutierrez, but officials said checks of dozens of small towns across the state found no damage.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - erupting Tungurahua volcano has dumped an inch of ash on nearby villages, causing major crop damage in an agriculturally important area, officials said Saturday. Several villages on the volcano's western flanks are being destroyed by falling ash that billowed over the highland plain and darkened the sky. Volcanic activity remains very high despite a lack of explosions and lava flows in recent hours. Tungurahua, located 95 miles (150 kilometers) southeast of the capital of Quito, is spewing a permanent column of ash to the northwest up to 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) high. Last week, the government ordered the evacuation of 3,000 people living near the volcano. Experts at the Geophysics Institute have compared the volcano's recent activity to the massive 2006 eruptions that buried entire villages, leaving at least four dead and thousands homeless.

The PHILIPPINES Institute of Volcanology and Seismology has placed Negros Island’s Kanlaon Volcano under Alert Level 1, meaning there will be slightly elevated unrest and volcanic activity that could lead to steam and ash ejections. In a bulletin issued Tuesday, Phivolcs advised the public not to enter the four-kilometer permanent danger zone around the volcano’s crater because sudden explosions may occur without warning. Phivolcs also said there is a likelihood residents of areas beyond the PDZ and downwind of the crater would be affected by ash fall during explosion. Kanlaon had a series of minor ash explosions in 2006, from June 3, 2006 to July 25.

HAWAII - Sulphur dioxide emissions at the summit of Kilauea volcano were more than more than 1,000 tonnes/day yesterday. This is the SECOND HIGHEST EMISSION RATE SINCE REGULAR MEASUREMENTS WERE STARTED IN 1979 at Kilauea summit. The National Park Service has closed all pullouts and parking areas in the south caldera due to hazardous gas emissions. Seismic tremor levels are elevated at Kilauea summit. Two small earthquakes were located beneath the summit area and on south flank faults.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone IVAN was 477 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 209 nmi NNW of Broome, Australia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - When it comes to bad weather - or just bad luck - some parts of the USA seem to attract disaster. Thirty counties across the nation have been included in federal disaster declarations at least 10 times over the past decade. Most fall in what could be called the nation's disaster belt: a stretch of land from South Florida to rural Oklahoma that faces regular bouts of everything from giant hurricanes to floods, ice storms and wildfires. The counties in it have endured significant destruction, and the disaster declarations have opened a floodgate of federal aid. Records show the government has issued more than $5 billion in grants and loans to those 30 hard-hit counties over the past decade.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
INDIA - Surat is feeling the heat of the cold wave, which is threatening to freeze the synthetic fabric market. The dipping mercury has left sales of synthetic fabric plummeting by around 40% in the last month. With consumers turning to woolens even after mid-January, there is a visible slowdown in the offtake of synthetic fabrics. What’s more, industry players fear more losses if the cold wave continues for some more days as woolens will continue to find favour with buyers. Normally, with the marriage and festive season round the corner, offtake of synthetic fabrics such as sarees and dress material starts picking up after mid-January. However, extended winter has seen a spurt in sales of woolen clothes even in January, which has forced traders in northern India to shift their focus on woolen clothes. “For the first time there is no demand of synthetic fabric in the months of January and February. Whatever demand was witnessed in the last month subsided in February in the wake of unabated cold wave.” Not just traders, units involved in weaving, processing and dying are also feeling the heat of the cold wave.

RUSSIA - A powerful snow cyclone is likely to batter Sakhalin Island on February 13 and 14. A heavy snow blizzard is expected to sweep the island, with wind velocity being 20-30 metres per second and visibility of less than 500 metres. The RME regional center has also warned about avalanche hazard.

U.S. - Dangerously cold temperatures and snow are sweeping across several states. The winter blast has brought RECORD-BREAKING COLD, and left tens of thousands of people shivering. The cold snap stretches from the northern plains to the northeast. It brought frigid temperatures, near blizzard conditions and caused a variety of headaches. Snow and ice are blamed for hundreds of accidents in several states. Air travel was also interrupted with cancellations across the region because of icy conditions. In the upper midwest wind chill readings hit -50 degrees. The winter blast is moving east with more snow and ice, and the problems that go along with them.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NEVADA - Lake Mead, the prime source of water for the desert city of Las Vegas, may run dry in 13 years, in 2021, if usage is not cut back, a new study shows. The study calculates a 10% chance that Lake Mead will run dry in six years and a 50% probability it will be gone by 2021 in the absence of other changes. "Our reaction was frankly one of being stunned. We had not expected the problem to be so severe and so up close to us in time." The West has suffered years of drought with the Colorado supplying less water to Lake Mead, which serves Nevada, California, Arizona and Mexico. The lake created by Hoover Dam provides 90 per cent of Las Vegas' water and is less than half full.

NORTH CAROLINA - Wildfires continued burning around the region Tuesday, though not as intensely, and heavy smoke was blamed for traffic accidents and road closures. Smoke caused an early morning, five-car pileup on U.S. 17 just south of the state line in Camden County, resulting in one minor injury. It also shut down parts of U.S. 17 near Ballahack Road in Chesapeake. By last count, more than 10,000 acres had burned in North Carolina in the past four days. That’s half the number of acres typically burned in a whole year.

TEXAS - A combination of unseasonably warmer weather and foliage still dead from the effects of winter is resulting in numerous grass fires that are keeping the volunteer firefighters plenty busy. It's not uncommon this time of year, but recent sporadic winds have contributed to the high risk of grass and woods fires. "The winds just seem to be a little MORE UNPREDICTABLE THIS YEAR THAN NORMAL. You'll get a day of gusty winds in the morning and then it will just go calm. It keeps people off guard." Another element is the amount of rainfall for this time of year. "We responded (to a fire)...where the ground was so wet we could hardly even get a truck to it. Yet everything else was so dry that it was all quickly burning." "We've been having fires all over the state. It started in West Texas. We've had some serious problems out there."

NEW ZEALAND - Drought conditions are not yet critical but plans are underway to prepare for the worst as it is estimated that the dry year has already cost New Zealand $500 million in lost milk sales. The drought "could well get critical". "The concern is that there's a reasonable chance that this weather pattern of very dry conditions could continue for quite a long time, right through into April or May...People are concerned about feed deficits. If it's not now immediate, it will be coming up to autumn and winter." Some farmers are reportedly shooting their stock.

BRITAIN - There is a 25% chance that a severe heatwave will strike England and kill more than 6000 people before 2017 if no action is taken to deal with the health effects of climate change. More than 3000 people could die in an intense summer hot spell in southeast England, with just as many more dying from heat related deaths over the summer. Until 2012, when London stages the summer Olympic Games, the odds of thousands dying in summer heat each year will be one in 40, and thousands more could die each year as a result of other effects of global warming and air pollution.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
If you can give your son or daughter only one gift, let it be enthusiasm.
Bruce Barton

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/11/08 -
5.0 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.1 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.0 FIJI

CALIFORNIA - A string of earthquakes along the U.S.- Mexico border over the past few days is rattling nerves. The latest quake hit Monday morning, near Mexicali. Officials said the magnitude 4.9 - downgraded from 5.1 - earthquake struck at 10:29 a.m. The quake was centered 24 miles south-southeast of Calexico and was felt in parts of San Diego, Imperial and Orange counties and as far away as Yuma, Arizona. Late Friday, that same area was hit by a 5.4 earthquake, which shut down factories near the border and left 400,000 people without power. The recent quakes are actually a swarm or collection of quakes that hit roughly around the same time in the same area. Normally, you have a big quake, followed by smaller aftershocks. But a swarm is different. The big quake is not at the beginning of the series and it's not always that much bigger than the other quakes. Monday's quake was followed by a series of aftershocks, including one that measured a 3.6 magnitude. Earthquakes are typical for this area near the border, which is basically the southern extension of the San Andreas Fault. "South of the Salton Sea, the San Andreas tends to develop complex faults - many smaller faults - in several directions. It's most likely related to this system." Swarms tend to range from 2 to 5 magnitudes and tend to repeat. They're not typically a prelude to a major quake. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone HONDO was 1581 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone IVAN was 553 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season began early in 2007 when Andrea formed 150 miles northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida on May 9. On Dec. 10, Sub-Tropical Storm Olga formed to the east of Hispaniola. The season officially begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Of special note, two Category 5's made landfall in one season for the first time. Both storms, Dean and Felix, made landfall in Central America. Hurricane Noel was the deadliest storm of the 2007 season - it killed 122 people in the Dominican Republic and Haiti when it passed through as a tropical storm in late October. At season's end, 15 named storms and 6 hurricanes were generated.
The north Indian Ocean experienced a damaging and deadly 2007 hurricane (cyclone) season. In June, Category 5 Cyclone Gonu surged out of the Arabian Sea and struck Oman and Iran - nations that almost never experience cyclones - causing almost $4 billion in damage. In mid-November, Cyclone Sidr was spawned in the Bay of Bengal, grew to Category 5 intensity, and devastated Bangladesh.
In the northwest Pacific, twenty-four named tropical storms developed during 2007. Usually the busiest region for hurricanes (typhoons), this relatively large number of tropical storms was below the annual average of 27. The end of December also marked the formation of the first cyclone near western Australia. Tropical cyclone Melanie developed at sea on Dec. 28.

AUSTRALIA - The weather bureau is warning a monsoonal trough lingering off Western Australia's Kimberley coast may become a cyclone tomorrow. The system has been in the area for the past few days and it is building. Forecasters are predicting the cyclone could form late today or on Wednesday morning. There are also gale warnings for coastal areas between Mardie and Kulumburu. People living along the Kimberley coast have been urged to begin preparing their properties. There are usually about five cyclones during the WA tropical storm season, which runs between November and April.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Two yachts have been wrecked, a train derailed, residents put on evacuation alert and a bulk carrier broke its moorings as wild weather returned to northern and central Queensland. The 47,000 bulk coal carrier snapped its moorings in rough seas at the northern coal port of Dalrymple Bay. The bulk carrier hit the wharf, ripping a 10 metre long gash in its side about five metres above the waterline and drifted until its anchors managed to pull it up. The rough seas and strong winds also put a yacht, carrying 32 people, aground on rocks on the western side of Hook Island in the Whitsundays. Also in the Whitsundays, a couple and their four young children were taken to safety before their yacht smashed into rocks at Airlie Beach. Heavy rain also caused a washout on the tracks, derailing a 12-wagon coal train. Meanwhile on the passenger network the north coast rail line was cut. The Bureau of Meteorology said a monsoon low was expected to bring further flooding to north and central Queensland. The low was moving southeast and was expected to be centred on the Sunshine Coast late tonight. Very heavy rain was forecast along the coast east of the low and extending inland to its south. The northerly winds of up to 110km/h were expected to bring large waves into Hervey Bay and other areas of the coastline exposed to the north and tides will be higher than normal. The Haughton River at Giru was in major flood last night. Authorities were carefully monitoring Mackay, Townsville and Bowen for flooding. Homes and businesses had been affected overnight in Mackay and the Whitsundays. (photo)

AFRICA - Flooding caused by heavy seasonal rains claimed three more lives over the weekend in Mozambique where authorities bracing for a fresh surge along the Zambezi river were battling to get supplies to around 2,000 families that had fled their homes. This year's floods are THE HEAVIEST IN YEARS and were expected to worsen when the floodgates on the Kariba Dam upstream on the Zambezi on the Zambia-Zimbabwe border were opened to prevent it from bursting its banks. The operators of the dam had said they intended to start releasing water on Monday. "The situation remains critical. Given that it is raining heavily we do not have access to the places where the (flood) victims have been relocated. We know that there are some 2,000 families unattended (in and around Marromeu). They have no food for quite a long time." The INGC was stockpiling food in a nearby area in the hope of being able to deliver supplies by boat when the waters recede. Parts of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Lesotho, Swaziland and Namibia have also been plagued by floods that have submerged villages and inundated thousands of acres of crops.
SOUTH AFRICA - Cars floating...trees collapsing...power lines down...shops flooded... caused by a deluge in East London on Monday afternoon. A flash thunderstorm caused a swathe of destruction across East London in a matter of minutes yesterday, dumping more than an inch of rain on the city and surrounding suburbs. (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - Bone-chilling temperatures hit many parts of Canada Monday, with Winnipeg feeling this latest wintry blast the most as the wind chill dipped down to -42C by early morning. The bitter cold is being attributed to an Arctic cold front sitting across the middle part of the country, affecting most of Manitoba through to parts of Northern Ontario. "It's colder than normal. This falling temperature trend is happening for most of the day with the Arctic air flooding initially causing conditions to be windy." The cold weather is a continuation of the temperatures that most felt over the weekend, with extreme wind chill alerts being issued in almost every major city Sunday. By Monday, the majority of the warnings were discontinued. In Calgary, a mix of the cold with a fog caused a transformer to blow, knocking out the lights to more than 70,000 electricity customers Monday. The Arctic cold front impacting Canada may be linked to La Nina, the sea-surface cooling pattern in the Pacific, which may have also contributed to strong hurricanes and a freeze-up in China. On Monday, the UN weather body predicted that this cooling pattern could last at least until mid-year.

TURKEY - Harsh weather conditions were expected to dominate the western provinces of Turkey Monday. The cold weather front coming from the Balkans is expected to adversely affect Turkey's western regions. Heavy snowfall is still affecting center Anatolia. Around 23 villages have no electricity. Officials warned drivers to drive carefully in fog in Sivas. The coldest temperature was minus 14 degrees Centigrade in Istanbul Sunday.

PAKISTAN - The northern parts of Balochistan including the provincial capital have remained in the grip of cold waves despite the sun shining after several days. The people face enormous difficulties due to the low pressure of gas during the cold season in the provincial capital. They also face hardships due to water scarcity as water supply pipelines have been burst as a result of the howling winds. The Regional Met office has forecast that intense cold and dry weather would persist in Balochistan including the provincial metropolis during the next 24 hours. Maximum temperature was recorded here Sunday as 6.0 degree Celsius, while the minimum was minus 8 degree Celsius.

CHINA - More snowy weather was forecast for parts of China on Monday, threatening to snarl transport at the height of holiday travel and hampering the country's efforts to return to normality after its worst winter in decades. China is expected to see railway traffic peak today. The travel crunch comes as China's transport systems are only just creaking back to life after freak cold and ice storms hit swathes of the country, causing billions of dollars in damage and killing at least 80 people. "The overall transport situation is still relatively grim, especially problems of capacity and demand emerging in railway transport." Sleet and snow was forecast for the already hard-hit southwestern province of Guizhou. Heavy snow could also hit the far-western provinces of Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan, as well as Tibet, in the next few days. In most of the country, transport, power generation and food supplies were back to normal by the weekend after weeks of the unusually harsh winter weather.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Drought sliced 10% off the value of Australia's agricultural production in 2006-07. Poor crop production fuelled the downturn, which was unable to be offset by improved prices. Cotton dipped 46 per cent, while rice fell a whopping 80 per cent due to an 84 per cent slump in production. Wheat production was down almost two thirds.
Butter under lock and key as prices soar. Australian bakeries are the latest in a long line of victims of increased global demand for dairy products and the country's long-running drought - with the all-important ingredient butter becoming harder to find and more expensive. Since the beginning of last year, the price of butter has tripled. "Obviously the ongoing drought in Australia has affected the Australian supply. And on top of that our flour price has gone up 100 per cent. So we're getting nailed from every angle." "My suppliers keep telling me, 'Brace yourself, because it's only going to get worse." It is the convergence of two factors - skyrocketing global demand for dairy and the drought in Australia - which have caused the price blow-out. And because butter, unlike milk, can be safely stored for months, some producers are believed to have built up stockpiles which are further squeezing supply. "Milk production for the first half of this current season is about 8 per cent down. So that is really driving the fact that overall there is a lot less butter being produced, a lot less of everything being produced since we've got less milk."
Perth set to sizzle during RECORD HEATWAVE. Perth looks set to have its longest heatwave in 20 years. Residents are set to swelter with nine days straight of temperatures in the mid to late 30s. Perth temperatures have reached 35C or higher since Sunday and weather experts say there is no reprieve in sight. The record was 10 days in 1975. A strong high system and the low pressure system threatening to turn into a cyclone in the Kimberley region are blamed for the scorching temperatures. The combination of the two systems was pushing a lot of hot, dry air from inland Australia across the continent and into metropolitan Perth. “Basically it’s becoming a little bit more heated every day as we go along and we are likely to be some of the hottest temperatures in Australia over the next few days.” January saw above average temperatures in Perth, with February on target to be a similar story. Power consumption hit RECORD LEVELS on Monday. It was THE MOST ELECTRICITY USED IN THE NETWORK AT ANY ONE POINT IN TIME EVER.

BRITAIN - temperatures reached double figures and Britain enjoyed its warmest day of the year so far on Saturday. The blue skies continued Sunday and forecasters say there should be more sunshine until Thursday. Forecasters described the temperatures as "VERY UNUSUAL", with southern parts of the country hitting 17C on Saturday. "We are enjoying some high pressure at the moment which is bringing with it some very settled weather. But it is VERY UNUSUAL for it to be quite this warm. Usually, if it is so clear and sunny at this time of year, it will be chilly."

HEALTH THREATS -
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BRITAIN - The UK is to be hit by regular malaria outbreaks, fatal heatwaves and contaminated drinking water within five years because of global warming. Following a major consultation with climate change scientists, the Government is issuing official advice to hospitals, care homes and institutions for dealing with rising temperatures, increased flooding, gales and other major weather events. It warns that there is a high likelihood of a major heatwave, leading to as many as 10,000 deaths, hitting the UK by 2012. Hospitals are warned to prepare for outbreaks of malaria and tick-born viruses, as well as increased levels of skin cancer and deaths from asthma and other breathing conditions. "Malaria has been seen in these islands in the past, and it is not impossible that it will return regularly if the UK experiences more tropical temperatures and rain on the scale experienced last summer." In south-east England, the chance of a severe heatwave on this scale by 2012 is said to be one in 40, and "in conventional thinking about risks to health, a risk of one in 40 is high." Flooding is likely to have an impact on the safety of drinking water, with increased bacteria and algal blooms in reservoirs.

Monday, February 11, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
If your parents never had children, chances are you won't, either.
Dick Cavett

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/10/08 -
6.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - An expert has warned that heavy rainfall on Mount Merapi may lead to a landslide that will endanger people living around Gendol River. Heavy rainfall may cause the volcanic material at the top of Mount Merapi to flow down the mountain towards Gendol River in the form of cold lava. An eruption in June last year left around 3 million cubic meters of sand and rock sediment on top of Merapi. It was estimated that about 2 million cubic meters of volcanic materials flowed through Gendol River after the previous eruption. On 30 December last year, heavy rainfal caused a landslide, which traveled seven kilometers along Gendol River before emptying into Adem River.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - On Saturday, emergency authorities in Hastings were on high alert, as swells of up to six metres pounded the coast and threatened beachfront homes. The aftermath of tropical cyclone Gene has generated large waves from Gisborne to the Wairarapa, extending down to the Kaikoura coast. Relentless swells threatened homes and battered concrete retaining walls. The waves proved to be a spectacle in Gisborne as well, with one local saying he had NOT SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THAT SINCE THE 1970s. Local authorities are closely watching the tides, but the big waves were expected to gradually dissipate with the Metservice predicting a shift to around two metres by Sunday. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone HONDO was 1637 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone IVAN was 580 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BOLIVIA flooding photos - Around 50 people have been killed and more than 40,000 families left homeless after weeks of heavy rain caused severe flooding.

AUSTRALIA - A rain-bearing monsoon trough is tipped to hit southeast Queensland tomorrow, bringing with it possible storms and flooding rains. The Gold Coast has been on a wild weather ride since late December, battling through storms and torrential rain. The monsoon trough is a FREAK WEATHER PATTERN, hitting the Gold Coast only once in every 10 years. It probably won't come all the way to the Gold Coast but it will still affect them because it will sit over the Sunshine Coast. "It's VERY RARE for the monsoon trough to come down this far, normally it doesn't go farther south than Mackay. It will be particularly humid and it could potentially bring heavy rainfall until a southerly change comes through on Thursday."

U.S. - When a tornado watch was issued for eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee last week, forecasters added the phrase: "This is a particularly dangerous situation." It is a RARELY used phrase by forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center. The wording is used on RARE occasions when long-lived, violent thunderstorms are expected. And it turned out to be THE DEADLIEST TORNADO OUTBREAK IN THE U.S. SINCE THE EARLY 1980s. More than 60 tornadoes tore through five states, claiming dozens of lives. Many of the twisters were large and powerful, tracking several miles across the countryside of the Deep South, throwing cars into the air, destroying a Caterpillar plant in Mississippi, and ripping apart dorms at Union University in Jackson, Tenn. "The wrath of God is the only way I can describe it. I'm used to seeing roofs off houses, houses blown over. These houses were down to their foundations, stripped clean."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. MIDWEST - Bitter temperatures, high winds and blowing snow created whiteout havoc across parts of Michigan and the upper Midwest on Sunday, and forecasters said more cold, wintry conditions could be expected today. "Road conditions are dismal." The cold, windy weather affected much of the upper Midwest, from North Dakota and South Dakota across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and northern Iowa. Blinding snow in Pennsylvania led to a 68-car pileup along Interstate 81, killing at least one person and shutting down northbound lanes.
U.S. EAST COAST - Punishing winds gusting as high as 60 mph swept across Virginia, Maryland and the District yesterday, tearing down trees, fanning fires and knocking out power to more than a quarter-million businesses and homes. Winds tore off sections of roofing, sent tree limbs crashing onto cars and into windows and tilted a church steeple. The wind, arriving with arctic air, spread wildfires across Virginia.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NORTH & SOUTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA - Wildfires chased some residents from churches and led others to seek them out for sanctuary as flames fed by strong winds spread in the rain-starved Carolinas and Virginia. Hundreds of western Virginia homes were under a mandatory evacuation as wildfires spread. High winds took down trees and knocked out power to thousands of homes and businesses. Bedford County issued an evacuation order for the Montvale area after a wildfire grew up to more than two-thirds of a square mile, or 500 acres, by Sunday. Since then, 30-plus-mph winds created so much smoke that gauging the fire's size became impossible.

UNITED KINGDOM - Barbecues and sunbathing were the order of the day as Britain enjoyed SOME OF ITS HOTTEST-EVER FEBRUARY WEATHER at the weekend. On Saturday the 16.6C (61.9F) heat in London BROKE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 9 THAT HELD FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY. The last time temperatures neared that level on that day was 105 years ago, when it was 16.3C. Sunday the temperature again broke the 16C barrier at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew. Climate experts there expect the BLOOMING OF FLOWERS TO SURPASS THE PREMATURE DATES recorded last year. The opening of their daffodils occurred on January 16, a week before they opened in 2007. The English hawthorn is expected to flower by the end of the month, more than eight weeks before it normally would. Crocuses opened 11 days in advance of the past decade’s average. Since 1952 Kew has recorded when different flowers open - early blooms indicate that climate change is having an increased impact. The bloomings “are MONTHS EARLIER THAN THE NORM, and given that they are species that have evolved in the vagaries of the English climate, the more remarkable because one would expect them not to react so easily to milder weather in winter. This suggests the CHANGES IN OUR CLIMATE ARE MORE FAR-REACHING THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN.” Mild southerly air swept up from North Africa and the mid-Atlantic on a powerful anticyclone. The warmth spread across Britain, with North Wales close to breaking a temperature record as warm air spilt down the mountains in a föhn wind effect, better known in the Alps where winds down mountainsides become compressed and heat up like a bicycle pump. The signs are for an early spring getting under way in many places. So far, February has continued UNUSUALLY WARM, 2C (36F) above normal, with frogs spawning and birds nesting. Parts of England and Wales have seen hardly a snowflake all winter, and although cold snaps could return, the long-range forecasts point to more balmy days. There is little sign of the savage Arctic winter that had been predicted late last year. Although last month was one of the wettest Januarys on record, this month could turn out unusually dry. February is usually our driest winter month, but this winter may be following the pattern of 1948, when the wettest January on record in England and Wales was followed by a dry February and spring. This winter is panning out much as the Met Office had predicted, with a coldish December giving way to warm weather later on. Much of its forecast was based on the La Niña phenomenon in the tropical seas of the Pacific. The sea temperatures there are some two degrees colder than normal over an area the size of the US, and that has sent global weather patterns haywire. Huge storms have ravaged California, eastern Australia and southern Africa, while UNUSUAL heat in the southeast United States helped to produce the devastating tornadoes seen last week. La Niña also hits the jet stream, a ribbon of winds a few miles high that have helped to steer mild air their way. Britain is facing a plague of rats because of the changing weather, with reports of more and larger rodents. Longer summers mean more time for rats to breed and give them greater access to food. The summer floods forced them out from underground, with many invading houses. It is estimated that there are now as many as 80 million rats in Britain.

ALASKA - January was an unpredictable weather month for Alaskans. For much of the state, the year started off on the cold side and then switched to near or above normal temperatures during the second half of January. Overall, mean monthly temperatures were below normal, with a few locations in the Interior reporting slightly above normal averages. Some of the strongest departures occurred for the western half of the state. Snowfall and total precipitation varied considerably throughout Alaska, again with the western half reporting the strongest positive departures. Wide temperature swings; a RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURE, and an above-normal snowfall total characterized the weather in Fairbanks this January. Strong westerly winds occurred during the sharp warm-up on Jan. 22-23, with peak winds around 30 mph observed at the Fairbanks International Airport, which is QUITE UNUSUAL for that time of year. In Barrow, temperatures gradually declined the first half of January, followed by a five-day spike in warm temperatures that included a RECORD HIGH. One has to go back to May of 2007 to find a month where the average temperature in Barrow was cooler than normal. After the first two weeks of January, it was as if someone flipped a switch in King Salmon. Temperatures were well below normal during the first half of the month and then a dramatic temperature rise led to above, and near normal, temperatures. Despite the dichotomy, the month’s average was 9.1 degrees BELOW NORMAL at 6.5 degrees. The month’s high, 48 degrees, occurred on Jan. 19. This high SET A NEW RECORD for that date.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, February 10, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"All I really need is love, but a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt!"
Lucy Van Pelt

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.4 quake in the SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/9/08 -
6.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO (the quake hit late Friday night about 100 miles east of Tijuana and was followed by at least 15 aftershocks. )
2/8/08 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 TONGA
6.9 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.4 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

BAJA - The moderate earthquake that rocked Baja California shut down factories near the U.S. border and left 400,000 people without power into early Saturday. 1.2 million were without cellular telephone service for a while. However, no major damage or injuries were reported. It has been felt pretty widely in Southern California, southwestern Arizona and probably northern Mexico. It was followed by at least 25 smaller aftershocks. Two bridges showed five-to seven-centimetre cracks and were closed until engineers could determine they were safe. Rescue workers were examining Mexicali schools, many of which are made of adobe, for cracks and other damage.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
NORTH CAROLINA - 2/8/08 - Mysterious booms rocked the Cape Fear region - Loud booms rocked Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender counties starting about 6:40 p.m. Callers from Oak Island, Leland and Supply heard the booms and felt strong vibrations. One man said he thought his beach-front home was collapsing. Another said it shook her whole house. A meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington said reports of the booms or vibrations were widespread, coming from Rocky Point in Pender County to Leland in Brunswick County. The Brunswick County 911 center's switchboard lit up with calls from people reporting explosions or loud booms. A dispatcher said the center had not confirmed the source of the loud noises. Mysterious booms known as "Seneca Guns" have been reported in the region for centuries. The name comes from a similar phenomenon in New York and Connecticut. Legend has it that the Seneca Indians are getting their revenge with the guns that Europeans used to displace them. More scientific explanations say the boom of the guns comes from earthquakes, material falling off the continental shelf, or pockets of hot air exploding like balloons. "We have no idea what it was," said the meteorologist at the weather service in Wilmington. "We felt the building kind of shake for just a split second." Staff at the NWS office was keeping tabs on the National Earthquake Center to see if there was a report of an earthquake in the region, but none was reported. They weren't aware of any military maneuvers off the coast.

TEXAS - 2/5/08 - Residents rattled, but by what? The earth moved Tuesday night for many Denton-area residents, but what caused it remains a mystery. “I was laying in bed, reading a book when it happened. It seemed like a loud noise and the whole house shook for a second or two." They felt another bump a few minutes later. A couple looked around their house and found no damage, but they did find their neighbors outside doing the same thing. Their neighbors thought a tree had fallen on their roof. Denton County sheriff’s dispatchers received nine calls from residents between 11:45 and 11:51 p.m. asking whether the shaking was an earthquake, a sonic boom, an explosion or something else altogether. A University of Texas professor, an expert on Texas earthquakes, said that he, too, received calls from Denton-area residents curious whether what they felt was an earthquake. There were no reports from the National Earthquake Information Center, but that seismic data is limited to quakes that register magnitude 3 or more on the Richter scale. A seismograph in Hockley, north of Houston, showed no activity either, but a small tremor, measuring 2 or less on the Richter scale, would be felt only locally. Such a quake could be measured only if there were instruments in the area. The most recent measurable earthquake in North Texas shook Commerce on May 13, 1997, with a 2.9 magnitude temblor. The kinds of reports people have made about Monday night’s shake are consistent with a temblor of 2 or less. “People report a loud noise or a jolt. They hear them more than they feel them.” But the reports are also consistent with other earth-shaking events, such as storms and sonic booms. The southwestern corner of the county is in a flight path where pilots are allowed to fly their craft at supersonic speeds. If an airplane does pass the speed-of-sound barrier, the boom could be felt anywhere in the county, depending on the wind, but emergency management officials aren’t typically told when such a flight has come through.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MALAYSIA - The Chinese New Year holiday was marred with tragedy when three youths were swept away by strong waves and are feared to have drowned on Saturday. The victims, along with another friend, went swimming in the Air Papan vacation spot, at about 5pm Saturday. Strong waves swept the four of them away but another vacationer managed to save one.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Cleveland Volcano on the Aleutian arc began erupting Friday evening, spewing a plume of ash about 20,000 feet high. Short-lived explosions of ash exceeding 20,000 feet could occur without warning, the Alaska Volcano Observatory said. The observatory has upgraded the alert and aviation levels to their second-highest ratings, indicating the volcano poses a limited threat to aviation and nearby communities. Clouds in the area have prevented the observatory from determining whether the plume has separated from the volcano. There is no real-time seismic equipment in the area. The volcano has been fairly active in recent years, with one eruption in 2007 and four in 2006.

HAWAII - The Kilauea eruption is creating a hazard on state land, forcing its closure to visitors. The public will be banned from the current site of the Kilauea eruption on state land next to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park until July 25, 2009. The board voted to keep the Kahaualea Natural Area Reserve closed because of safety concerns over flowing lava and toxic fumes generated by the eruption. At this time, "there is no clear trend to suggest that the magma supply is decreasing significantly." The lava flows erupting near the vents are full of gas and form pahoehoe flows that are treacherous to walk on and can lead to deep cuts on the legs and arms or broken ankles if one falls. Because there are two active vents, it is difficult to predict the direction of the lava flow from one day to the next. Officials also said downwind exposure from sulfur dioxide fumes can be hazardous, especially for those with breathing problems. The Hawaii Fire Department has responded to five rescues at the reserve since it was closed in July. (photo)

7 photos - The recent volcanic eruptions in Ecuador and Chile.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 17S was 768 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone HONDO was 1668 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone IVAN was 527 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - A bad-weather system may drop multiple cyclones in the coming week, but none are expected to threaten the Northern Territory coast. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a 2000km wide system of rough weather and thunderstorms, touched down in the Territory a few days ago. It can take 30-60 days to move around the planet along the equator - and last time it came to the Territory it brought Cyclone Helen. This visitation has brought stormy weather and it was likely to hang around for a week or so on the NT coast. At present there is a tropical low lurking east of Groote Eyelandt in the Gulf of Carpentaria, but it was unlikely to become the next cyclone. "It is expected to move east to Queensland and be over land by early Monday - and once it moves over land, it won't develop into a cyclone." But Madden-Julian could drop multiple tropical lows along the monsoon trough, with the potential for more cyclones. A tropical low hanging over the Kimberley is expected to move over water today. It had good potential to form a cyclone off the West Australian coast this week. But low was expected to move away down the WA coast, breaking the Top End's monsoon trough. Another low pressure cell brooding out to sea north of Western Australia has a moderate chance of becoming a cyclone by tomorrow but is too far away to threaten the Territory.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ILLINOIS - Precipitation is above normal after two months of wild weather. Illinois has seen heavy snows, heavy rain, flooding and severe weather since Dec. 1 — including five tornadoes in January. The UNUSUAL weather is due to several strong low-pressure systems moving along a southwest to northwest track in the Midwest, leaving heavy snows in a band from Kansas to the Wisconsin-Illinois border. Snowfall totals in those areas are 50 to 100 percent above average. This winter has been marked by rapidly fluctuating temperatures as strong cold fronts moved through the state. One such case occurred on Jan. 29 when temperatures reached into the 50s and 60s throughout central and Southern Illinois before dropping 20 to 50 degrees in the course of six hours. “This is SOME OF THE MOST DRAMATIC WINTER WEATHER I HAVE EVER SEEN - from heavy and frequent snowfalls to spring-like temperatures and severe weather. On Super Bowl Sunday, it was 32 degrees with six inches of snow on the ground in central Illinois, and we had a thunderstorm. I have never seen it before and NEVER WOULD HAVE BELIEVED IT COULD HAPPEN,” said the State Climatologist.
Experts say the flooding currently plaguing some parts of Illinois happens only once every 20 years.

TONGA - A FREAK storm that DUMPED MORE THAN A MONTH'S AVERAGE RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS has swamped the Pacific island nation of Tonga, forcing evacuations. Buildings, including the Australian High Commission, and houses in the main city of Nuku'alofa were flooded after roads turned into rivers during the storm. "This is THE GREATEST RAINFALL WE HAVE EVER HAD IN THE KINGDOM." Climatologists called it "AN EXTREME EVENT" with up to 289.2 millimetres (11.38 inches) of rain falling on parts of the main island of Tongatapu in the 24 hours to 10:00am Saturday. Most of the rain fell in a seven-hour period on Friday evening causing flash-flooding across the island and forcing animals to swim for their lives. Tonga, with a population of 112,000, lies a third of the way between New Zealand and Hawaii and receives most of its annual rainfall between November and April. A heavier than usual rainy period had been forecast as "a high probability" this year for January to March.

BRUNEI - Devastating flash floods hit the Temburong District submerging several villages and causing considerable damage to house and property as well as public utilities in a wave of havoc.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - About one-tenth of China's forests have been destroyed in the snow storms regarded as THE MOST SEVERE IN HALF A CENTURY. A total of 17.3 million hectares of forest have been damaged across China as a result of three weeks of savage winter weather. More than half the country's provinces have been affected, and in the worst-hit regions nearly 90 per cent of forests have been destroyed. More misery could be in store, as the State Forest Administration has warned that trees killed by winter frost could boost the amount of flammable materials, raising the risk of forest fires.

AFGHANISTAN - More than 750 people have died as a result of severe cold and heavy snowfalls this winter across Afghanistan. The cold spell, THE WORST IN DECADES in the impoverished and mountainous central Asian country, has also killed nearly 230,000 cattle. The snowfalls have destroyed more than 500 houses and damaged more than 40,000. The worst affected areas were the western provinces of Herat and Badghis, where many people had to have amputations because of frostbite. Several families sold their children recently because they were unable to care for or feed them. Many key roads linking districts with provincial capitals have been blocked by snow, hindering deliveries of supplies.

CANADA - Travel to and from the B.C. Interior was next to impossible yesterday morning as avalanches severed two of three possible routes. The Coquihalla Highway between Hope and Merritt was closed indefinitely after an avalanche Thursday near the snowshed. The 55-metre slide has been cleared but conditions remain unsafe. An avalanche yesterday morning closed the Trans-Canada Highway from Hope to Boston Bar. Until it is cleared, the only remaining route connecting southwestern B.C. with the Interior is via Highway 3, the Hope-Princeton Highway.

WASHINGTON - the state's three large passes became simultaneously closed early Friday afternoon. About 72 miles of Interstate 90 have been closed. Crews on Saturday made progress clearing debris, snow and standing water from the major highway pass through Washington's Cascade Range. However, the other two passes likely will remain closed into Sunday due to heavy snow. Since Feb. 1, 86.5 inches of snow have fallen on Snoqualmie Pass, bringing the total this winter to 416 inches. The record for winter snowfall is 696 inches of snow in 1945-50. "And we still have three months left, because we sometimes get snow still in May."
12 Cascade snow monitoring stations are measuring RECORD SNOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. Eleven of those stations are on the west side of the Cascades.

IDAHO - in Coeur d'Alene there has been a RECORD-BREAKING snowfall. Snowfall for the winter hit 127 inches as of Tuesday night, beating the old mark of 124.2 inches set in the winter of 1915-16, and the National Weather Service was predicting as much as another half-foot by nightfall Thursday.

COLORADO - The next avalanche fatality will put Colorado over its 10-year average of 5.5 and they're not even halfway through their deadliest month - February. "It's spooky out there." Snowpack totals are well above average in most areas, making backcountry trips thrilling but potentially dangerous. March is the third-deadliest month for avalanches.

INDIA - Authorities on Sunday vacated a mountainous hamlet and shifted 200 of its residents to safer areas in Doda district after an avalanche warning. After issuance of a warning that an avalanche may hit Bhaderwah, Doda and Chamba (Himachal Pradesh), district authorities with the help of the army vacated the entire Sheerikha village located in the area. Eleven people of Sheerikha village, who had gone for hunting wild pigs on Wednesday, were caught in the snow storm and went missing. They were rescued by the army troops from the area and brought back on Friday.

KASHMIR - Twenty people were killed by avalanches and 15 others were missing in Indian Kashmir as THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN RECENT YEARS brought the Himalayan region to a standstill. More than 300 people have been rescued from avalanche-hit areas, while many villages remained inaccessible. Thousands of goats that provide fine wool for Kashmir's famous Pashmina shawls are facing death as their winter pastures near the Chinese border have been covered by unexpected heavy snowfall.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
- Chattem Issues URGENT Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Icy Hot Heat Therapy Products, including consumer samples that were included on a limited promotional basis in cartons of its 3 oz. Aspercreme product. Chattem is recalling these products because it has received some consumer reports of first, second and third degree burns as well as skin irritation.
- New Era Canning Company of New Era, Michigan is recalling all cans of vegetable products in #10 cans (large cans containing between 6 and 7 pounds) because they may have been processed under conditions which could have led to contamination by Clostridium botulinum bacterium spores, which can cause life-threatening illness or death.
-The Michigan Department of Agriculture warned consumers to check their cupboards for Olivier brand Parmesan and Asiago Dip with Garlic and Basil because of the possibility of contamination with Clostridium botulinum.

The nation's FIRST KNOWN CASES of antibiotic-resistant meningococcal disease surfaced in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota over the past year. Federal officials have been anticipating such a case. The drug-resistant strains are the latest evidence of antibiotic overuse, particularly in patients whose colds are viral and not bacterial. These first cases are significant but shouldn't worry the general public.

Friday, February 8, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"You can't say that civilization don't advance,
for in every war they kill you in a new way."
Will Rogers

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there has been a 6.8 quake on the NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/7/08 -
5.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.2 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.7 BALI SEA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
WASHINGTON - a coastal flood warning was in effect Thursday morning for Whidbey Island. The combination of a high tide and a strong surge of westerly winds down the Strait of Juan de Fuca created large waves Thursday morning, flooding low-lying areas, especially on the west side of the island. There were voluntary evacuations of about 20 homes starting Wednesday night. The National Weather Service said coastal residents should be alert for rising water.

NEW ZEALAND - The MetService is warning heavy swells up to six metres high will hit the east coast of the North Island by tonight. The main area expected to be affected was between East Cape and Cape Palliser, with the ocean swells building to a high point bytonight and easing from Saturday night. The swell was being generated by former cyclone Gene. This system had left the tropics and was moving southwards well to the east of New Zealand. The sweep of some of the waves will come well inshore especially on the high tide near dawn and dusk. As the easterly swell approached the beach it will break up into smaller, steeper rollers and help to form stronger rips than normal. While the significant height of the swell - the average of the top third waves - was expected to be around four metres, the occasional wave, one in a hundred or so, was likely to be six metres.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - At least five people died when the Tungurahua volcano erupted, local media reports said Wednesday. The volcano, 130 kilometres south-east of the capital, Quito, threw lava, boulders and clouds of ash into the air throughout the day. Five nearby villages were heavily damaged and 1,450 people were evacuated. The clouds of ash had damaged 20,000 hectares of farmland. After lying dormant for years, Tungurahua has been active since 1999. The director of the Geophysics Institute of Ecuador warned of a major eruption of the volcano, which has been actively spewing ash, rock and lava since early January.

MARIANA ISLANDS - Anatahan Volcano in the central Mariana Islands began releasing plumes of ash and steam in early February, continuing a pattern of intermittent activity from December.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .

(Three lined up in a row) -
Cyclone 17S was 869 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone HONDO was 1542 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone IVAN was 450 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Cyclone Hondo was a powerful Category 4 storm when NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a photo-like image on the afternoon of February 7. The storm’s power is evident in its symmetric shape and well-defined eye. Hondo had winds of 220 kilometers per hour (140 miles per hour or 120 knots) with gusts to 270 km/hr (170 mph or 145 knots). The storm was traveling southeast across the southern Indian Ocean, far from any populated region.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - People across the Midwest woke up Thursday to as many as 20 inches of snow, while residents and business owners in the Great Lakes region nervously eyed rising rivers and braced for flooding. Flood warnings were issued in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and New York after three days of heavy rain and melting snow. People in northwest Ohio moved to higher ground as forecasters predicted that floodwaters would continue to rise in an area still recovering from flooding five months ago. Meanwhile, residents across the Midwest were digging out from a major snowstorm that closed schools and businesses and brought travel to a standstill. Hundreds of flights were grounded in Illinois and Wisconsin, and traffic backed up for 19 miles south of Madison after semitrailer trucks got stuck on a hill. Nearly a foot of rain, ice and snow fell across northern Illinois, keeping thousands of students home from school. Classes were also canceled Wednesday in parts of Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan, where up to 14 inches of snow fell north of Detroit. (photos)

KENTUCKY - For two weeks in a row Kentuckiana was hit by tornadoes – and we’re only in the first week of February. Tornado season officially hasn’t even started. “This has been somewhat of an UNUSUAL year.” There have been 15 confirmed tornadoes, and it’s only February. “In Kentucky it might be 10 to 12 per year. Normal tornado season is the spring, basically April, May, June. It’s not unusual to have a severe weather outbreak in winter. But to have three that we’ve had this year is UNUSUAL." Cold weather generally isn’t ideal for tornadoes and such, but just south, in Dixie Alley – which is Tennessee and below – this is the worst time of year. And Kentucky is starting to look more like Dixie Alley.

AUSTRALIA - Perth's 50-day drought broke with a RARE weather system delivering three times Perth's average February rainfall in less than a day.
The heavy rain in Perth has already given the city its WETTEST FEBRUARY SINCE 1992.

INDIA - A part of West Bengal's industrial settlement Asansol subsided by 25 feet Thursday, endangering the lives of thousands of people living in the neighbourhood. The subsidence took place at a coalmine area near Nimcha village in Burdwan district in the morning as people suddenly noticed the cave-in and gas billowing from the underground. Panic gripped over 5,000 people in the area and local residents vented ire against Eastern Coalfield Limited authorities. Authorities visited the area and started filling the cracks with sand. "We are keeping a watch on the situation and taking adequate measures to prevent any massive subsidence." Last month, a devastating fire in seven illegal coalmines ravaged Jamuria-Satgram area in Asansol. The fire spread rapidly to the adjacent mines even as ECL authorities tried to seal the mouth of the mines.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Biofuels make climate change worse - Scientists have produced damning evidence to suggest that BIOFUELS COULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST ENVIRONMENTAL CON-TRICKS because they actually make global warming worse by adding to the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide that they are supposed to curb. Two separate studies show that a range of biofuel crops now being grown to produce "green" alternatives to oil-based fossil fuels release far more carbon dioxide into the air than can be absorbed by the growing plants. Studies looked at how much carbon dioxide is released when a piece of land is converted into a biofuel crop. They found that when peat lands in Indonesia are converted into palm-oil plantations, for instance, it would take 423 years to pay off the carbon debt. "In finding solutions to climate change, we must ensure that the cure is not worse than the disease."

PENNSYLVANIA - The temperature was a balmy 70 degrees at 11 a.m.on Wednesday, SHATTERING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE. The previous record of 65 degrees was set in 1884. The normal temperature for that date is 40 degrees. “When you hit for a record, it's UNUSUAL, and this particular record is over 100 years old.” The average temperature this month has been 41.7 degrees, about 9.5 degrees warmer than normal. If the mercury reading wasn't ABNORMAL enough, the humidity level increased to 66 percent at 11 a.m. That would be a normal humidity level for a spring day, but it is EXTRAORDINARILY RARE in February. The warm weather was the result of a buildup of warm air in the southeast and south central sections of the nation that was brought in north ahead of an advancing storm system.

NEW ZEALAND - The Waikato region has been declared an official drought zone, after the DRIEST JANUARY IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS. It is the FIRST EVER DROUGHT DECLARATION IN THE REGION. Waikato's normally rich, green pastureland has become a huge expanse of brown, dusty paddocks. Much of the area has not had rain since before Christmas - soil is extremely dry and river levels are dropping rapidly. Many farmers are already selling stock or drying off their herds. They cannot believe HOW QUICKLY THE BIG DRY HAS HIT.

ODD -
A plague of rats has destroyed the crops of tens of thousands of people living in Bangladesh's remote Chittagong Hill Tracts. Aid workers have warned that the destruction of crop has left the people in a "near-famine situation". The rat population has soared in recent weeks as they feed off the region's bamboo forests WHICH ARE BLOSSOMING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. Neighbouring states in India have suffered from the same problem. About 150,000 people living in the hills along the country's south-eastern border with India have been affected. People there had been reduced to eating roots to survive, but even these are now running out. Fields have been stripped of their plants, and are now dotted with large rat holes. "The rats are MUCH BIGGER THAN USUAL. They eat everything that is fresh and green." The rodents have multiplied at an alarming rate - the bamboo blossom is such a good food source for them that when they eat it they can breed up to eight times a year - four times more often than normal. The problem is spreading, as more forests start flowering. The region will face problems for the next three to four years, until the rat population declines. According to local folklore, the flowering of the bamboo, and the subsequent surge in rat numbers, occurs every 50 years. They say the last time it happened was 1958. Across the border in India, in Mizoram state, the bamboo began to blossom last year. The government there declared it a disaster zone after the rats went on to eat people's food stocks.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, February 7, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
While there's life, there's hope.
Cicero

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/6/08 -
5.1 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISL.
5.0 GUAM REGION
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA

INDIA - A mild earthquake, which recorded 4 on the Richter Scale, took place in Burdwan, Bankura, West Midnapore and Birbhum on Wednesday morning. The tremor lasted for about six seconds. A number of mud houses have collapsed and several concrete houses cracked in the quake. A few mobile towers also collapsed and production at Mejia Thermal Power Station has stopped. At Bullupur Girls High School in Bankura, some girls were injured while rushing down the stairs. Cracks also appeared on the walls of the Kustore panchayat office. At Fuljam in Gangajalghanti, a woman broke her hand and several mud huts collapsed. In Raniganj, abandoned houses have collapsed in Searsole. Residents of Jhargram, Dahijurim and Silda in West Midnapore felt the tremors twice at 10.32 and 10.38 am. "Its epicentre was about 20 km from Kharagpur and it spread to north-east of Midnapore. The earthquake, mild in nature, was created by the Pingla fault that caused another quake there on December 13, 2005. Such quakes occur after almost every two or three years and is not dangerous." A woman died after she was caught under the debris. A number of railway signal cabins at Andal, Durgapur and Panagarh on Howrah-Delhi main line also developed cracks on the walls. A mild aftermath tremor that lasted for three seconds was felt at 5.12 p.m.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - Tungurahua volcano shot columns of ash miles into the air as officials ordered 3,000 villagers living near its slopes to evacuate. A state of emergency already in place will be extended for 60 days. Experts at the Geophysics Institute warned that the intense activity shows no sign of slowing down, and compared it to the massive 2006 Tungurahua eruptions that buried entire villages. "The volcano has entered a new explosive eruption cycle, a process which does not seem to be slowing down." Ash billowing from Tungurahua has already covered thousands of acres of farmland, destroying property, crops and livestock.

CHILE - Llaima, one of South America's most active volcanoes, belched ash and a nearly mile-long river of lava crept down its slopes on Wednesday as geologists warned activity could intensify. Columns of ash and smoke rose from the crater, some of them as high as 16,400 feet (5,000 metres) above the volcano. Llaima's volcanic activity in the past month has drawn some tourists, but it is mostly making nearby residents nervous and scaring away vacationers.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 17S was 984 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone GENE was 626 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone HONDO was 708 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

PHILIPPINES - More powerful typhoons are expected to hit the country this year as the prevailing La Niña phenomenon in the country is "favorable" to typhoon development. "Typhoon activity in the country was very active in 2004 but not in 2005. In 2006, a total of 20 tropical cyclones hit the country, of which three were super typhoons. In 2007, the typhoon activity was not active with only 13 entering the Philippine area of responsibility." At least 16 typhoons are forecast to enter the country this year, mostly in the third quarter. La Niña is expected to affect the rainfall pattern of the country in the first half of the year, but normalize by the second half.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - Storms across 5 states left at least 55 dead. There were unconfirmed reports of more than 60 tornadoes. They cut a wide path from Mississippi and Alabama north into Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. More than 150 people were injured. The storms upturned vehicles, damaged buildings, uprooted trees and left thousands of people without power. Several dorms were destroyed or damaged at Union University in Jackson, Tennessee. The RARE winter storms were AMONG THE WORST TORNADO CLUSTERS IN U.S. HISTORY. Tuesday's storms "just literally sat on the ground in wide areas", leaving a trail of destruction up to 400 miles (643km) wide. "It looks like the Lord took a Brillo pad and scrubbed the ground." Tornadoes typically kill about 70 people in the United States each year, mainly in the spring.
INDIANA - Nearly all of Indiana is under a flood warning for the second time in a month, as high water is expected on every substantial river and creek. Snow, warm temperatures and heavy rain have created the soggy conditions that led to flooding over two-thirds of the state. Temperatures over 60 degrees in Indianapolis on Monday and Tuesday combined with heavy rain - 1.83 inches in Indianapolis on Tuesday - to set up the flooding. High waters might have contributed to at least one death when a vehicle plunged into a water-filled quarry. Powerful winter thunderstorms produced at least one tornado in Indiana as they marched across the state Tuesday night, damaging homes and buildings, including a fire station.

MOZAMBIQUE - Just as authorities thought floodwaters had stabilised, the rains have started up once more. The authorities have begun evacuating thousands more people from the Zambezi river valley following an announcement by neighbouring Zambia that it would release water from the Kariba dam. Controllers of the massive dam say they will have to release water or risk having the dam burst in the next week to 10 days. The water is expected to flow down the Zambezi into areas of Mozambique already struggling to cope with high flood waters. Aid agencies are describing the growing crisis along the Zambezi river valley as going "from bad to worse". There are already almost 100,000 evacuees and the reception centres are full to capacity. With the river already at a RECORD HIGH, they are now looking to move another 40,000 as well as having to re-evacuate people sheltering in centres they thought were safe. The flood waters are now spreading to Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and Zambia, and more people will have to be evacuated. More rain is forecast to fall this month and it could continue into April. (map)

AUSTRALIA - An UNUSUAL WEATHER SYSTEM has delivered almost double Perth's average February rainfall in less than a day. The Bureau of Meteorology said 23mm of rain fell in the Perth metropolitan area overnight, with another 5 to 10mm expected today. The city's February average is 12mm. A mid-level low pressure system was creating the rain. "These sort of systems come along once every four or five years, and provided they line up in the right place, somewhere gets 30mm." The deluge has blacked out traffic lights around the city and caused congestion on major freeways and other roads. Perth had sweltered through almost two months without rain.
Heavy but scattered downpours hit the Darling Downs again on Monday night. Monday night's downpour of 294.6mm was almost half the average YEARLY rainfall. "The rainfall was THE HIGHEST SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT at the turn of the century...It is very lucky that the Condamine is low so the water could get away. If it was full then it would have been a major disaster. The amount of water was unbelievable."

INDONESIA - Rescuers dug for survivors after a landslide on Indonesia's main island pummeled a village on Wednesday, killing at least seven.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
OREGON - About 30 members of the Oregon National Guard headed to the tiny, snow-buried towns of Idahna and Detroit to help residents dig out from under RECORD AMOUNTS OF SNOW that have caused damage and panic. They arrived Tuesday afternoon. "We have buildings with snow on them in danger of collapsing. Snow around doors in danger of bursting, some homes have already sustained damage." The town does not have the resources to deal with so much snow, according to the mayor. Since December 1, 150 inches have fallen in Detroit with about a foot coming down everyday for the past few days. (photo)

ILLINOIS - About 1,000 flights at O'Hare International Airport were canceled Wednesday afternoon because of severe weather that could bring as much as a foot of snow to the Chicago area. The northern suburbs had been hit the hardest by the snowstorm as of Wednesday afternoon. Lake and McHenry Counties had the most snow, including Beach Park with 10 inches. By 10 a.m., the winter storm was lashing Chicago with stinging sleet. It scoured exposed faces and coated flat surfaces. Wind whistling through skyscrapers pried off flakes of ice the size of drink coasters that hit sidewalks below with soft popping sounds. The unstable weather system is associated with the line of storms that raged across the southern part of the nation Tuesday night, spawning twisters.

TAJIKISTAN is in the grip of emergency food shortages. The deteriorating food situation is part of the energy crisis which hit the mountainous nation in the middle of ITS COLDEST WINTER FOR FIVE DECADES. The cost of food has tripled in recent months, partially because of rising world prices. Some humanitarian agencies claim Central Asia's poorest nation is heading towards catastrophe. It's well below zero in Tajikistan, but most people have no electricity, no heating and now, increasingly, many don't have enough food either. It's not just the rural population that's being affected, but people in the cities too. "We are seeing more and more people who are eating just one meal a day. And we only expect the food situation to deteriorate. This is already a real emergency." Even at the best of times, tens of thousands of people are malnourished. But this winter is affecting a huge proportion of the population. People are spending all they have on trying to keep warm. And THE WORST IS STILL TO COME - Tajikistan is currently using up its last energy resources, and it may face a total blackout.

LEBANON - the wave of polar cold that swept over the East Mediterranean region last week caused great damage to buildings and crops. Certain towns and villages were totally isolated by the snow. Electricity was cut off in numerous localities, which meant that many, especially in the mountains, had trouble keeping warm. The storm did great damage in several regions to crops and greenhouses. On Thursday the snow was as deep as 150 centimeters in some places, particularly North Lebanon. The Beirut-Masnaa international highway was cut from Aley eastward for long hours. Many roads were usable only by four-wheel drive vehicles or those equipped with chains. The wave of icy cold has caused a number of human victims (who died of cold), especially in North Lebanon, but the principal victim was agriculture. Crops of many different kinds perished, whether in open fields or in greenhouses, thus depriving farmers of a whole autumn-spring growing season. Tropical fruits like bananas and mangos were badly affected, as were apples in certain regions. It was the length of the cold wave that had been especially harmful, as well as the difference between day and night temperatures. Why had greenhouses been affected? “Because they protect plants down to a temperature of about three or four degrees above freezing. But we’ve had temperatures as low as five degrees below freezing for several days in a row. And the diesel used to heat the greenhouses is more expensive than it used to be." Farmers had become “used to the mild winters we’ve had over the last few years, and they were unprepared for this winter’s harsh weather”.

INDIA - For a city unused to dramatic weather changes, Mumbai this year is feeling the chill deep down to its bones. After a season low of 10.2 degrees on January 27, the mercury dropped even further to a shivering 9.4 degrees early on Wednesday morning. THIS IS THE LOWEST RECORDED TEMPERATURE IN OVER 45 YEARS, the previous best being 7.4 degrees in January 1962."The weather has been cold because of the influence of the northern wind." The weather is also UNUSUAL because at this time of the year, the temperature usually shoots up to over 18 degrees, which has left people severely under-prepared as Mumbaikars are not known to be well equipped with woollen wear.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

China's freak snowstorms: 'the new normal'? - The UNPRECEDENTED SCALE, COST, AND HUMAN IMPACTS of China's FREAK MONTH of snowstorms, its worst in 50 years, herald a need for the world to get ready for 'new kinds of disasters,' according to the Director of the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 'So-called 'freak weather' is becoming more common and reducing vulnerability to these unexpected extremes must be a top priority for governments.' It is estimated that over 100 million people throughout China have been directly affected by the weather, such as through loss of power and water – equivalent to at least the population of the United Kingdom and South Africa combined. The UN/ISDR secretariat emphasized the growing importance of ensuring infrastructure can withstand WEATHER THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY UNTHINKABLE. When billions of dollars in potential losses are balanced against the low costs of prevention in the future, the choice should be clear. China's snow disaster cut across all sectors – power and water lifelines, communications, air, land and sea transport, agriculture, and the financial markets. Governments should learn from the shock of new types of disasters, and need to start examining how to best adapt to unpredictable, 'freak' conditions that may sadly become all too normal.'

U.S. - The RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH that fueled the severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday expanded across the entire South on Wednesday. The cities of Jackson in Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi, all set RECORD HIGHS for the day. Additional daily record highs on Tuesday included:
Baton Rouge, La. - 83° (old record 82° from 1957)
Augusta, Ga. - 81° (old record 80° from 1957)
Elizabeth City, Va. - 77° (old record 75° from 1986)
DELAWARE - RECORD HEAT February 6 - The temperature at New Castle Airport hit 69 degrees Wednesday, SHATTERING A RECORD of 60 degrees set in 1896. Records also fell in Sussex County, with the mercury climbing to 73 degrees, where the previous record was 72 set in 1991. Delaware notched its third consecutive warmer-than-normal January last month, and remains caught in a stubbornly warm and dry spell that experts say could linger or worsen in coming month. "People tell me they had butterflies [outdoors] last weekend. It's just unsettling, is the only thing I can say." A RECORD number of bird species were noted this year in areas that warm-weather birds usually flee.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

FIJI - One person has died from typhoid and more cases of the disease are emerging in Fiji, just days after tropical cyclone Gene swept through the country. Part of the problem is the destruction of some water supplies by Cyclone Gene. "This is one of the major contributing factors. According to the health officials that have visited the places it's mainly due to contamination of their water sources as a result of landslides due to the recent heavy downpours."

Wednesday, February 6, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
People grow through experience if they meet life honestly and courageously.
This is how character is built.
Eleanor Roosevelt

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/5/08 -
5.7 SULAWESI, INDONESIA

CHILE - Earthquake-prone Chile was rocked again by another tremor on Monday. The temblor, which was measured at 6.3 on the Richter scale, did not cause any damage or casualties. It was felt in northern Chile and the southern part of Peru.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MEDITERRANEAN SEA - Tsunami threat hangs over southern Italy - Tsunamis occur around once a century in the Mediterranean Sea. In 1908, a magnitude 7 earthquake created a tsunami that almost destroyed the Italian cities of Messina and Reggio Calabria. A major rumble in the quake-prone region off the coast of Greece would trigger a tsunami 5 metres high, which would strike the south-east coasts of Sicily and mainland Italy within an hour. Meanwhile, waves as high as 1.5 metres could be triggered by earthquakes off north Africa and in the Tyrrhenian Sea, north of Sicily. Other countries could also be vulnerable. "A comparable or even greater threat exists for the coasts of Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Greece."

CANADA - Nova Scotia is in danger of being cut off from the rest of Canada as the Atlantic Ocean rises. The province's only land link to continental North America is the Isthmus of Chignecto. It's just 24 kilometres wide and mostly covered by low-lying wetlands. It could be at least temporarily inundated. Many of Nova Scotia's roads and communities are vulnerable to rising sea level. The province is anticipating the high-tide mark on the Atlantic coast will be at least 70 centimetres higher in the next century. The sea level is expected to rise a minimum 40 centimetres, and the province will sink another 30 centimetres. The impact will be worst during storms, which are expected to become more frequent and severe. Nova Scotians got a taste of what can happen last fall when tropical storm Noel wiped out a road at Queensland Beach. Hurricane Juan in 2003 caused about $100 million worth of damage in Halifax, partly from the coastal storm surge. "We're an island, in many ways, tied together by a fragile and very low-lying body of land." The government doesn't have enough data to know where construction is most needed, and can't begin to predict how much it will cost to build dykes and move infrastructure. Canada has the world's longest coastline and the most vulnerable areas are in Atlantic Canada.

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - A month after its revival, Llaima volcano in southern Chile has begun to show new signs activity in the last 48 hours. The eruptions of lava could be seen early on Sunday morning from the towns nearby. Concerns were evident among residents and tourists from the neighbouring areas, as the volcano showed an increase in activity during the previous night. (video)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GENE was 626 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone HONDO was 647 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.

Throughout its lifetime, Gene left serious damage on the island nations of Fiji and Vanuatu. The storm struck Fiji's islands between January 27 and January 30, causing 7 deaths and widespread minor damage to crops and buildings. The storm was stronger by the time it crossed over Vanuatu. The islands of Futuna and Anatom reported the loss of many homes, schools, churches, and other buildings. As of February 5, the storm was moving away from inhabited islands. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - At least 27 people have been killed and dozens injured by violent tornadoes in four southern US states. The twisters hit Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. A huge fire erupted at a natural gas pumping station in Tennessee that may have been damaged by the storms. The fire spread to nearby houses, killing an undetermined number of people. In the same state, students were trapped under rubble in their dormitory after a tornado made the roof cave in. They were said to have talked by phone to rescuers who were trying to dig them out. At least six tornadoes had touched down in the 100 miles (160km) between Jackson and Oxford, Mississippi. Hundreds of thousands of people are reported to have been left without power. "This was an extraordinary night."

INDONESIA - Two people were killed and five more were missing after heavy rainfall triggered a landslide on the Indonesian island of Java. The torrent of mud hit houses in Sindangwangi village on Java's north coast late on Tuesday. Several thousand people have also been displaced by flooding and high tides in the capital Jakarta this month. At least three people died and the city was brought to a standstill.

AUSTRALIA - Flooding has hit central Brisbane after a massive rainstorm. The weather pattern is expected to dump more than 50mm of rain across parts of the city, continuing the incredible run of rain for 2008 that is filling the southeast's dams. An ASTONISHING TW0-AND-A-HALF MONTHS SUPPLY OF WATER fell in the states dams overnight. The dams have been inundated with an extra 12 months of water already in 2008. Rain and flash floods have inundated and damaged many roads around the central coast and the state's south-east corner in the past few days. On the Gold Coast yesterday, a 15m section of road collapsed on the Isle of Capri.
Parts of the Gold Coast could be 'washed away' after a long list of Brisbane bureaucratic bungles has led to flood danger across the city. The weather bureau has predicted more heavy rain over the next few weeks with heavy rain tipped for today. Torrential rain has raised the Hinze Dam's water level to 1.8m above the spillway. The Gold Coast Mayor had been lobbying for the Queensland Water Commission to cut water restrictions back to level 2 to relieve pressure on the catchment. "If the weather continues like it has, with more rain, then the Gold Coast will flood. I am very worried about that basin with the king tides and more rain flushing it out and affecting homes." Gold Coast would be a 'washout' if the rain continues and tides peak on Friday."I have been saying this since 2000 when council was doing its flawed flood modelling. If the rains continue and the tides remain we could see a smaller version of 1974 when flood waters devastated the Gold Coast. Since then we have developed on flood plains. We need to release the water and make sure that Gold Coast properties aren't washed out." (photo)
A ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY deluge of about 300mm sparked a flash flood in the small farming community of Hannaford on Sunday night.

AFRICA - Large parts of southern Africa have been badly affected by flooding since the start of the year, with scores either drowning or dying of water-borne diseases. Zambia and Zimbabwe have agreed to release rising waters from the cross-border Kariba dam next week in a move that officials warned could lead to the flooding of nearby villages. Authorities said indications are that more rains are expected to hit the two southern African nations before the end of next month. "The authority observation stations in the upper reaches of the Zambezi river are also recording higher flows than normal which are contributing significantly to higher inflows into the Lake Kariba. " Zambia has appealed to citizens living hear the banks of the dam to begin moving upwards where the government has erected temporary shelters for them.

HAWAII - Sunday's rainfall in Hilo was 10.82 inches, BEATING THE OLD RECORD of 7.34 inches set on Feb. 3, 1969.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
KASHMIR - 150,000 rare Himalayan goats whose wool is used to make Indian Kashmir's famed pashmina shawls are at risk of dying as heavy snow blankets the region. The goats' pastures, spread over the mountains of the Changthang area of the Ladakh region bordering China, have been covered by UNUSUALLY deep snow and farmers are fast running out of fodder. "All roads leading to Changthang are blocked and we're trying our best to clear the roads to rush fodder to the area."
An avalanche killed one; hundreds evacuated and Kashmir Valley cut off. A driver of the Border Roads Organisation was killed as he came under avalanches and three persons were injured owing to heavy snowfall in Kashmir on Tuesday. The Valley remained cut off as the Srinagar-Jammu highway was closed for the third day and air traffic was also suspended. Hundreds of people in various parts left their homes in view of warnings from the authorities about a possible snowstorm. The driver of the snow-clearing machine of the BRO was killed at Sadhna top on the Kupwara-Tangdhar Road which witnessed the heaviest snowfall. This is the only link between Tangdhar and the rest of Kashmir. The BRO’s bulldozer is also missing. The authority said around 16 ft of snow had accumulated on the top. As heavy snowfall continued in the Jawahar tunnel area of the highway, a police barrack was damaged after an avalanche hit the post. An avalanche struck near Waltengu area of South Kashmir. Residents of the area said that at least 250 people were evacuated. People were also evacuated from Ramzan Nar, Marari Nar and Nagin Pora. The authorities have declared these areas avalanche-prone and have sounded a red alert. Srinagar city also witnessed heavy snowfall on Tuesday. Snowfall was likely in most parts of Kashmir for the next two days.

COLORADO - Avalanche danger in the San Juan Mountains is EXTREME. "If you're into avalanches, this is a PRETTY AMAZING STORM CYCLE that we're going through. The danger rating is at extreme. And that doesn't happen very often...We expect to see some very deep avalanches running some LONG, POSSIBLY HISTORIC DISTANCES." This winter itself is EXTREME, a departure from the drier-than-average season that many meteorologists predicted. La Nina's influence has been thwarted by localized weather patterns. This storm came off the Pacific Ocean near the Baja peninsula, bringing in cold, wet air that dumped snow on the San Juans. "That is NOT A TYPICAL EVENT to happen during La Nina." The snowpack already beats the yearly average. Cortez is at 179 percent of normal year to date. Temperatures are also about 10 degrees below average. "The jet stream has carved out a persistent trough over the western United States, and so that's brought a lot of cold, wet air into the Southwest." This has trough overwhelmed the larger forecast of a dry winter due to La Nina's influence.

CHINA - Workers rushed to restore power Tuesday to regions of China hard-hit by snow and ice storms, in a struggle that has already cost the lives of 11 electricians. Residents entered a 12th day without electricity in the central city of Chenzhou, one of the most seriously affected across a broad swath of the country battered by the worst winter storms in more than half a century. Nearly 130,000 repair workers have been brought in to help carry out emergency repairs across the region. Water was being delivered by truck and supplies of vegetables, fruit, and meat were running low. Many shops had closed and prices of what little fresh food was available had soared, along with those of candles and charcoal briquettes used for heating and cooking. Most of the banks had closed and cash was running short in the city. Gas pumps were not working, leading to fuel shortages.

ODD-

Cut Middle East Internet cables remain a mystery - Repair ships arrived off Egypt's Mediterranean coast Tuesday to begin fixing the severed underwater cables that have bedeviled Internet service throughout the Middle East and India since last week. The ships should help solve the mystery of what happened to the cables, two of four that were damaged within days of one another, a RARE COINCIDENCE that so far has defied explanation. It still will be days before Internet service returns to normal. The cut cables threw India for a loop, with technicians scrambling to restore Web access to call centers, which handle customer service for many major Western companies. International phone service, which also was disrupted, and Internet lines were rerouted through alternate cables, which quickly became overloaded. Bad weather delayed the arrival of the ships off Alexandria, where two of the damaged cables are. The other breaks occurred on a looped cable that was cut in two places, off the coast of Dubai and between islands near Iran, where bad weather also is hampering repair efforts. Maritime traffic or bad weather frequently damage underwater cables, though officials said it was RARE to have cuts occur in quick succession, as with the four in the Middle East. The timing, location and dramatic aftermath of the cable cuttings have led to murmurs of Western conspiracies to deprive Iran of Internet access or to allow American spies to monitor e-mail sent from the Islamic world. Egyptian transportation authorities viewed footage of the sites off the coast of Alexandria and observed no ships or other vessels in the area 12 hours before or 12 hours after the cables were cut. "The cuts could have resulted from natural causes. There were many storms at that time."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The universe is change; our life is what our thoughts make it.
Marcus Aurelius Antoninus

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/4/08 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
6.3 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 PUERTO RICO REGION
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES

RWANDA - The death toll from a series of earthquakes that hit central Africa rose Monday to 44 as a major aid operation for hundreds of injured and thousands of homeless gathered pace amid new aftershocks. At least 38 people were killed in Rwanda's Western Province and six around the Democratic Republic of Congo city of Bukavu, which was near one epicentre, while more than 450 were hurt. Sunday's quakes, the biggest of which measured 6.0 on the open-ended Richter scale, caused huge communications problems after they struck close together along the western Rift Valley fault, cracking open the walls of houses and buildings. They caught many people in church for Sunday services, trapping them under rubble when the buildings collapsed.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SCOTLAND - Wildlife experts fear a Spanish trawler which ran aground on St Kilda, in Scotland's Western Isles, could threaten the island's rare bird population. The National Trust for Scotland has laid down traps to catch stray rats leaving the ship before they affect ground nesting gannets, puffins and guillemots. Salvors in Falmouth, near Cornwall, were also inspecting a 45cm (18in) hole in the hull of the 28,000-tonne Horncliff, which ran into difficulty off the Scilly Isles on Friday. The boat had been carrying thousands of bananas from the Caribbean when it was battered by HUGE WAVES. The South-West of England, Wales and Scotland will see another 'wild week' with heavy rain and gale force winds.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 16S was 596 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone GENE was 541 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical cyclone Gene, which last week caused substantial damage to the Fiji islands and also severely hit the South of Vanuatu, has finally spared neighboring New Caledonia. Over the weekend, Gene has started losing power at its centre, but has also significantly changed directions, moving from its initial Southeasterly to a southwesterly route. Gene is now expected to enter an "extra-tropical" phase within the next 48 hours. Back in Fiji, the interim government's Prime minister has declared several areas disaster zones, mainly in the North of the main island of Viti Levu, but also in the greater Suva area.
Vanuatu’s assistant secretary general says it has not been able to contact anyone on Aneityum island, in the wake of Cyclone Gene. The worst affected islands were the southern islands of Futuna and Aneityum. Damage reports indicate crops and food gardens were completely destroyed on Futuna, and the island suffered extensive damage to infrastructure. So far there have been no reports of injuries or deaths.
In Solomon Islands, residents in Guadalcanal are being warned of the dangers of rising flood waters and the possibility of crocodiles, after heavy rain in the area at the weekend. The flooding, caused by heavy rains from Cyclone Gene, has caused damage to family gardens, bridges and roads in many parts of Guadalcanal. Assessment officers say major suppliers of market produce to the capital, Honiara, have been affected by the flooding.

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season - It is REMARKABLE that half of the globe's Category 5 storms in 2007 occurred in the Atlantic basin, which normally has only about 11% of the globe's tropical cyclones. The globe's strongest tropical cyclones were Atlantic storms (Dean & [recently upgraded] Felix, 175 mph winds), which is also UNUSUAL. A relatively small hurricane, Felix leapt from a minimal Category 1 storm into a Category 5 in just 24 hours, intensifying by 85 knots over the course of that period. In the archives of Atlantic storms, only 2005's Hurricane Wilma strengthened faster. Dean also rapidly intensified itself, strengthening 60 knots in 24 hours. The storm re-intensified to reach its peak strength of 150 knots just before landfall – a strength equal to that of Felix. A new report from the National Hurricane Center describes an ever-strengthening Dean during the final hours before it smacked the Yucatan Peninsula – and estimates that Dean's pressure dropped as low as 905 millibars before landfall. In terms of landfall pressure, only 1988's Hurricane Gilbert and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane were more powerful than Dean. The 2007 global hurricane season was pretty average, but Dean and Felix, both of which took their place alongside top record-holding storms for the Atlantic region, were the kind of anomalies that make you sit up and pay attention.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - The state has been saturated with the AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FALLING IN JUST FOUR DAYS. Heavy rain caused peak hour traffic chaos across Sydney this morning, with a fire truck being used to rescue a motorist in Sydney's southwest becoming caught in flood waters. The fire truck was taken by the water and remained stuck, a tow truck later called to rescue the rescue vehicle. (photo)

NAMIBIA - Fears rise as flood waters from Angola pour in. Oshakati and surrounding villages are straining under the weight of spreading flood waters. In addition to heavy rains in the areas, flood waters (known as efundja) from southern Angola are penetrating the region. "We are already flooded and they say it is still raining in Angola, so the water is still coming." There are reports that the Kandjegedi bridge that connects Oshakati and Ongwediva is cracking because of the huge volume of flood water from the Cuvelai flood plain passing through at pace.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
JAPAN - Seven Japanese snowboarders are missing in the mountains, with rescue efforts hampered by fierce blizzards. The snowboarders failed to descend on Sunday from the ski resort of Osorakan in Hiroshima prefecture, about 700 kilometres (435 miles) west of Tokyo. "It was a terrible blizzard today, so bad that rescuers couldn't even walk."

COAL PRICES jumped 25% TO A RECORD at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, as snowstorms in China, power cuts in South Africa and floods in Queensland reduced output. China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, will halt exports until April after the worst snowstorms in 50 years disrupted output. China, reliant on coal for 78% of its power, is restricting exports to boost domestic supplies. Power shortages in South Africa forced Anglo American to close mines last month. In Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, is among four miners that say they may miss deliveries after rain flooded pits. BHP Billiton said operations at its alliance with Mitsubishi might be affected for as long as six months.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Many of Earth's climate systems will undergo a series of SUDDEN SHIFTS this century as a result of human-induced climate change, a study suggests. They argue that society should not be lulled into a false sense of security by the idea that climate change will be a gradual process. "The greatest threats are tipping of the Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland ice sheet, and at least five other elements could surprise us by exhibiting a nearby tipping point." Global warming has begun to affect some aspects of our climate, but that change is THE START OF A SERIES OF MORE DRAMATIC CHANGES if global warming continues. A number of systems that influence the Earth's weather patterns COULD BEGIN TO COLLAPSE SUDDENLY if there's even a slight increase in global temperatures. The nine ecological systems that they say could be lost this century and the time it will take them to undergo a major transition are:
Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (about 1 year)
Melting of Arctic sea-ice (about 10 years)
Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (about 10 years)
Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (about 50 years)
Dieback of the Boreal Forest (about 50 years)
Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (about 100 years)
Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (about 100 years)
Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (about 300 years)
Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (about 300 years)

UNITED KINGDOM - Mounting evidence suggests spring is arriving early this year. Some species of frogs, butterflies and plants have become "STARTLINGLY" active. This phenomenon has left certain species vulnerable to wintry weather, calling their long-term survival into question. Volunteers observed that peacock and red admiral butterflies were on the wing, and there have been 100 sightings of frog spawn and four sightings of tadpoles. "Researchers say that if the species regularly start their spring activities early, their long-term survival could be threatened as they become far more vulnerable to wintry cold snaps."

AUSTRALIA - The latest report on water storage in the Murray system warns that river levels are likely to be lower than last year, despite recent flooding in Queensland. There is a 75 per cent chance there will be less water in the system in June this year, compared with a year earlier. The states will implement contingency measures to ensure that Adelaide and towns relying on the Murray have enough drinking water for the next two years. The Climate Change Minister says the situation in the Murray-Basin remains very serious and the area is a long way from getting back to normal.
Australian wine prices are set to rise this year as the nation's WORST DROUGHT IN A CENTURY dries up excess stock. Government statistics showed that wine production for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2007, fell by almost one third from the previous year. Australia is the world's fourth-largest wine exporter, but the decade-long drought is biting into the grape harvest in some areas.

TEXAS - A volunteer firefighter was injured as he was trying to put out SOME OF THE WORST WILDFIRES TO HIT SOUTH TEXAS IN RECENT MEMORY. With the high winds the last couple days, the fires have shown they can move incredibly fast and turn on a dime. Close to 20,000 acres have burned in La Salle County, and about 2,000 more were charred in Dilley County.
184 Texas counties were threatened or impacted by wildfires this past week. 75 wildfires have destroyed 60 homes and structures and burned at least 70,000 acres. More than half the counties in the state have been under recent burn bans. More high winds and dry conditions favorable to wildfires are expected to continue through this week. "As wildfires continue to rage across our state, Texas is reaching its capacity to respond to these emergencies and is in need of federal assistance." Among the hardest-hit counties is LaSalle, where a 19,000-acre fire was burning on Saturday. Wildfires are common enough in this part of South Texas. But this one is far from common. "THIS IS THE BIGGEST ONE WE'VE SEEN. And I've been here most my life."

INDIA - For the fourth consecutive year, the migratory bird Siberian Stonechat has been sighted at Punchakari wetlands in the Kerala city suburbs. The sighting is significant as the species is usually seen in drought-hit areas. The consecutive appearance of this species in the wetlands of the city points to the possibility of a severe drought in the coming months say birdwatchers.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

BIRD FLU has spread to three more districts in Bangladesh, taking the number of affected districts to 37.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-California Department of Public Health warns consumers not to eat Olivier brand Parmesan and Asiago Dip with Garlic and Basil, because of the possibility of contamination with Clostridium botulinum.
-The Indiana State Board of Animal Health's Dairy Division revealed high levels of staphylococcus aureus (or "staph") in several raw milk cheeses manufactured by Grassy Meadows dairy.

Monday, February 4, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
It's not that some people have willpower and some don't.
It's that some people are ready to change and others are not.
James Gordon

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/3/08 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 PUERTO RICO REGION
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES

RWANDA - Many people remain trapped under rubble in Rwanda after a series of earthquakes hit in Africa's Great Lakes region. At least 40 were killed in Rwanda and neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo after Sunday's quakes. The two most powerful occurred hours apart in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Rwanda, with magnitudes of 6.0 and 5.0 respectively. More than 300 people were injured by the powerful earthquakes. The quakes were also felt in neighbouring Burundi, disrupting hydroelectric power and causing a half-hour electricity cut.
Despite several aftershocks, there were no reported new victims a day after the two strong earthquakes shook the African Great Lakes region, injuring hundreds. The two quakes struck close together along the western Rift Valley fault cracking open the walls of houses and buildings in the DR Congo city of Bukavu. People ran out of churches packed for Sunday mass as the walls shook. The first 6.0 quake was ONE OF THE "BIGGEST EARTHQUAKES EVER RECORDED IN THE KIVU REGION." (photos)

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - Four moderate earthquakes hit the UAE early on Sunday, just a day after a tremor measuring 3.4 on the Richter scale struck Deba Al Fujairah on the east coast. The latest earthquakes were felt by residents up and down the east coast, but there have been no reports of injuries or damage to property. The first three earthquakes were recorded in local seismic observatories and not in any of the regional observatories. The centre said this was because the seismic depth of the point on the fault plane where the rupture started was very close to the surface, which resulted in a strong sense of the seismic waves in a limited area and a rapid decrease the level of the seismic waves as they moved away from the centre.

CALIFORNIA - Avenal quake part of a 'swarm' - A minor 3.7 earthquake rattled western Fresno and Kings counties Thursday night, rippling the foothill community of Avenal and triggering a cluster of small aftershocks that continued Friday. The epicenter was about five miles northwest of Avenal, less than 20 miles away from the notorious San Andreas Fault that runs through the hills west of the San Joaquin Valley. By Friday evening, the quake had been followed by six small aftershocks, including a magnitude-2.5 shaker shortly after midnight Friday and a magnitude-2.0 shock about 10:15 a.m. Thursday night's quake is likely the high point of an "earthquake swarm" that began last Monday. Sixteen smaller tremors - "microearthquakes" and none measuring more than a magnitude 2.4 - were registered on seismometers before Thursday's earthquake. Thursday's shaker occurred more than 10 miles beneath the Earth's surface. "On this fault, which runs many miles along the west side of the Valley, you've got these big plates pushing against one another, trying to compress the Coast Range even more. Something is broken down there, and it's letting us know it's broken." The swarm may last for a few days or a few weeks, "and then that will be it ... but the 3.7 is likely the biggest one we'll see."

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - authorities evacuated 20 residents near the Llaima volcano on Sunday as it spilled lava and ash a month after a fiery eruption. The volcano previously erupted on New Year's Day, sending up a huge plume of smoke and coating the surrounding wilderness park with ash, forcing the evacuation of dozens of tourists.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GENE was 580 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - At least eight people died and two others were hurt in floods that hit Brazilian state of Riode Janeiro on Saturday and Sunday. Most of the victims were in the hillside neighborhood of Madame Machado, where rains caused mudslides and flooding. Some of the dead were buried alive in their homes. A car was also buried by landslides. The equivalent of three week's of rain had fallen in just a few hours. "To give you an idea, 13 mm an hour of water fell on neighboring Petropolis and in Itaipava more than 135 mm fell in less than an hour. It was a COMPLETELY EXTREME SITUATION and that is why there were deaths." Fire crews have had to use boats to rescue residents from their flooded homes. The rains also caused nearly 1 km of the Petropolis-Teresopolis to sink.

HAWAII - A storm that pounded parts of the Big Island Saturday with more than 20 inches of rain was on its way to Maui, O'ahu and possibly even Kaua'i by this Sunday morning. A state of emergency was declared in the Hilo, Puna and Ka'u areas. "We have tremendous forces of water coming down our streams right now. It's a lot of rain, even for Hilo. I'm sure WE'LL SURPASS RAINFALL RECORDS." Honoli'i Stream on the Big Island overflowed its banks and police reported landslides along the Hamakua Coast.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - The snow storms that have stranded millions of Chinese travellers are a "severe disaster" that will continue for several days, top leaders have warned. Relief work was continuing to be a tough task. Troops are working to clear blocked roads and rail lines, allowing some stranded passengers to travel. But more snow is expected and heavy fog has also hit central provinces, adding to transport woes. On Monday, visibility was less than 100 metres (109 yards) in areas including Hunan and Hubei provinces, two of the areas worst hit by the snow. Residents of some central provinces have been without power and water for days. China's leaders have been working hard to convince people that they are tackling the situation and prevent frustration boiling over into unrest. The extreme weather, now in its fourth week, has affected an estimated 100m people, and caused 54bn yuan (£3.8bn) of damage. Officials have warned of future food shortages because of damaged winter crops.
The weather is THE COLDEST IN 100 YEARS in central Hubei and Hunan provinces, going by the total number of consecutive days of average temperature less than 1 degree Celsius. The cold snap caught the country off guard, in an area unprepared for such heavy snow.
The RARE prolonged snowstorms and low temperatures that have caused havoc in many parts of China are mainly related to the La Nina phenomenon and ABNORMAL atmospheric circulation, said meteorologists. The severe weather strongly resembles the aftermath of La Nina events. Experts say the La Nina conditions developed last August throughout the tropical Pacific and STRENGTHENED AT THE SHARPEST PACE IN 56 YEARS. The sea-surface temperature during the past six months was 0.5 degree Celsius lower than normal years. The abnormal atmospheric circulation in some regions of Europe and Asia, which has persisted for nearly 20 days since mid-January, is responsible for the rampant chilly weather, rain and snowstorms.

JAPAN - Dozens of flights and trains have been cancelled as snow blanketed Tokyo, with more than 170 people injured in weather-related accidents. In Nagano, north of Tokyo, two skiers remained unconscious on Sunday after they were engulfed in an avalanche at a ski resort following heavy snow.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Sunday, February 3, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
We all have big changes in our lives that are more or less a second chance.
Harrison Ford

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning quakes in Africa -
5.2 MOZAMBIQUE
5.0 RWANDA
6.1 LAC KIVU REGION, CONGO

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/2/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2/1/08 -
6.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 TONGA

BULGARIA - An earthquake measuring 2 on the Richter scale shook the territory of Strazhitsa municipality in North-eastern Bulgaria early on Saturday. The epicentre of the quake was registered 200 kilometres northeast of the capital Sofia near the village of Asenovo. The mild tremor did not cause damages or casualties but shook people out of bed, scared of a coming earthquake. More than 60 microquakes were registered in the region during the last week.

Earthquakes occurring at the edges of tectonic plates can trigger other events at a distance and much later in time. These doublet earthquakes may hold an underestimated hazard, and may also shed light on earthquake dynamics. "The last great outer rise earthquakes that occurred were in the 1930s and 1970s. We did not then have the equipment to record the details of those events." The outer rise is the region seaward of the deep-sea trench that marks the top of the plate boundary. Like pie crust, when the Earth's crust bends, small cracks begin to appear but when the bending becomes severe, a larger region of the crust breaks.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Mega-tsunami theory disputed - Supposed evidence Australia has been subject to prehistoric tsunamis up to 20m in height over the past 10,000 years could just be the result of Aboriginal occupation, a major conference is set to hear tomorrow. Archaeologists from the Australian National University say the theory about the mega-tsunamis, which has influenced the development of emergency service plans in Western Australia, is not supported by evidence. “Our field work would suggest that the shell and coral deposits found high on headlands in WA or further inland are evidence of Aboriginal occupation of the area, and not deposits of mega-tsunamis or other major inundations.” Archaeological deposits in the area have not been disturbed by major inundation for 1000 years, undermining the theory that giant waves had flooded the area once every 400 to 500 years.

CALIFORNIA - For more than 100 years after the Gold Rush, San Francisco Bay shrank by a third as new Californians diked and filled its shallow waters for farms, salt, dumps, ports, airports, homes and businesses. Now the Bay is growing again. Rising temperatures are melting miles-thick glaciers off the land masses of Antarctica and Greenland. Rising seas are nibbling at low-lying land and what's been built on it. In San Mateo County, San Francisco Airport could be under water. In some areas of Palo Alto, water could lap beyond Bayshore Freeway; in Redwood City, it would come close to the freeway. "We're going to have to build lots of levees. It's a double challenge. Levees have to be big and strong enough to withstand rising water — and to resist an earthquake." Sea level has already started rising in San Francisco Bay; the Bay rose six inches in the 20th century. "We know that sea level is rising. We just don't know how fast and how high the water will get."

ANTARCTICA - any thaw could raise sea levels faster than UN projections. Even if a fraction melted, Antarctica could damage nations from Bangladesh to Tuvalu in the Pacific and cities from Shanghai to New York. It has enough ice to raise sea levels by 57 metres (187 ft) if it melted over thousands of years. Some island nations, such as the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, are building defences costing millions of dollars and want to know how high to build. East Antarctica is the world's deep freeze with no sign of a thaw. Temperatures were about minus 15 Celsius (5.00F) at the height of the Antarctic summer. Most experts said it is still impossible to model how the ice will react. "The crux of this problem is that we are moving into an era where WE ARE OBSERVING CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM THAT HAVE NEVER BEFORE BEEN SEEN IN HUMAN HISTORY." Most of the projected sea-level rise by 2100 will be because water in the oceans expands as it warms, with little being added by the ice sheets. Beyond 2100, sea-level rises are likely to go on for centuries. "IN THE LONG RUN WE ARE IN TROUBLE"...Greenland is close to a 'tipping point'," or an irreversible meltdown that would last hundreds of years. Greenland has enough ice to raise world sea levels by 7 metres if it all vanished.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GENE was 886 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

MADAGASCAR - Twelve people died in Madagascar after cyclone Fame tore through the western portion of the island, according to a death toll released by the island authorities. The cyclone left another 1,450 people homeless, with 5,024 inhabitants of the island tallied as having been affected somehow by the disaster. Most of the victims came from rural areas - killed by falling trees, collapsing houses, or by drowning. In total, Fame hit six regions to the west of the country. Fame is the first cyclone to wreak havoc in Madagascar since the beginning of the season two months ago.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NAMIBIA - At least one life is believed to have been lost because of heavy rains pummeling some areas in the North, while at least one village is said to be in danger of being swamped by flood waters. Water was racing over the Ompundja bridge at high speed and if this continued, the village of Ompundja could be destroyed. The total number of people at Oshakati affected by flooding was put at around 3,000 people, with about 500 severely affected.

ECUADOR, BOLIVIA, ARGENTINA - Torrential rains have caused widespread flooding in southern Ecuador, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina, with nearly 50 people killed and thousands made homeless, triggering international humantarian aid to the region. In Bolivia some 45 people have been killed by incessant flooding since November. It is estimated that more than 30,000 families have been affected by the floods, with thousands evacuated from their homes in Bolivia's lowlands. In Ecuador, civil defense officials have reported two children killed when they were swept away by turbulent rivers in the southern region, where thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes. In northern Argentina, the Pilcomayo and other rivers flowing from waterlogged Bolivia have overflowed their banks leaving some 4,000 poeple stranded and forcing more than 100 to flee their homes.

AUSTRALIA - Brisbane southern suburbs were hit today by dramatic flash flooding - and there could be more on the way with major downpours predicted for the week. Capalaba, Gumdale, Ransome, Annerley, and Wakerly have already seen a number of roads blocked by the deluge. Low lying areas of other suburbs suffered from flooding due to the massive downpour with 22mm reported over Brisbane city ranging up to a peak of 52mm in Ransome. With rain predicted for all next week there is the possibility total storage levels for dams in the south east could rise above 30 percent for the first time since mid-2006.

MIDDLE EAST - A third undersea fibre optic cable running through the Suez to Sri Lanka was cut Friday. Two other fiber optic cables located near Alexandria, Egypt, were damaged Wednesday leading to a slowdown in Internet and telephone services in the Middle East and South Asia. There are conflicting reports of how the two Alexandria cables were cut. Oman's largest telecom said a tropical storm in the Mediterranean, which forced Egypt to close the northern mouth of the Suez Canal on Tuesday, caused the damage, while the United Arab Emirates' second largest telecom said the cables were cut due to ships dragging their anchors.

INDONESIA - Parts of Jakarta were still inundated on Saturday after wide-spread flooding due to incessant heavy rains paralysed the capital on Friday. Severe flooding also occurred in East Java, Gorontalo and West Sumatra provinces.

PENNSYLVANIA - Friday’s winter storm in Bradford County BROKE A RAINFALL RECORD, closed schools and businesses, and set the stage for crashes.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
HONG KONG - A cold weather warning issued by the Hong Kong Observatory was in force for a RECORD-BREAKING tenth day on Saturday. This is their second week of below fifty-degree weather. Hong Kong likes to think it is tropical and technically it is, falling just inside the Tropic of Cancer. Perhaps because of this - or because winter in Hong Kong generally only lasts 8 weeks or so - nothing is heated. That's right. No heat. So indoors it is just about as cold as outdoors - 48 degrees.

CHINA - Worst is not over in weather crisis, China warns - Facing its worst winter in five decades, China on Saturday warned the ordeal is not over yet as troops and authorities worked overtime to restore a semblance of normalcy after severe snowstorms claimed at least 60 lives. "The most difficult period is still not over yet. The situation remains grim." More snow and sleet were forecast across the south, where three weeks of storms have destroyed crops, damaged electricity lines and disrupted the transport system. Severe weather conditions have been forecast to continue nationwide until February 8th or 9th. Much needed warmer temperatures are unlikely even after the snowfall ends. UNUSUAL blizzards, rain and harsh weather have thrown the rail and road traffic into a tailspin, with millions of passengers stranded. The cold spell has caused a loss of 7.5 billion dollars. Disruption in rail and road traffic has affected the supplies of coal to power plants whose stocks are depleting fast, adding to the worries of authorities. In central province of Zhejiang, a snowstorm lasted 30 hours, causing snow accumulations of RECORD DEPTHS. 19 provincial regions were hit, affecting nearly 78 million people as of January 28. For the FIRST TIME IN 135 YEARS the economic hub of Shanghai posted a yellow snowstorm alert on Saturday and by this morning, it had received 15 cm of snow. The Shanghai port at the mouth of the Yangtze river was closed as of 1:00 a.m. on Saturday, which stranded more than 1,000 ships and cancelled the departures of 200.
The FREAK weather has even carpeted the arid Taklamakan desert in far-western China with snow. "NEVER BEFORE had the whole desert been covered." The transport chaos has strangled distribution of coal leading to what has been called the WORST ENERGY CRISIS IN MEMORY.

WYOMING - “Rawlins has just been pounded with snow. This is a RECORD-BREAKING winter for them...This is a VERY UNUSUAL and difficult storm.” High winds and blowing snow forced the Wyoming Department of Transportation to close Interstate 80 near Rawlins for the fourth straight day on Friday. WYDOT crews were in their 80th consecutive hour of work Friday morning battling whiteout conditions and high winds to scrape and plow a stretch of I-80 in south-central Wyoming. The most difficult spot was west of Rawlins, where overnight winds had completely drifted the snow over westbound I-80.

UTAH - Snowpack ranges from 170 percent of a normal winter in southern Utah to 100 percent at the Idaho border. Alta Ski Area tied a January record with 178.5 inches, and that snowfall's water content of 15.43 inches BROKE THE RECORD from 1996. "It's the first year in a long time we've had snow cover from one end of the state to the other, north to south." Northern Utah's winter so far is typical of a La Nina year such as this, when cold surface water temperatures in the South Pacific tend to cause the jet stream to funnel wet weather in from the Pacific Northwest. What's UNUSUAL about this year is that southern Utah is sharing in the wealth, whereas a La Nina usually dries out the American Southwest.

Meteorologists were abuzz about this week's UNUSUAL weather in the U.S. Midwest. "In Illinois Wednesday, you had a tornado watch and a blizzard warning separated by 50 miles." You'll generally have a strong pressure gradient with a winter storm; therefore, you will get warm moist air on one side of the storm and snow on the other.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Friday, February 1, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
There is nothing like returning to a place that remains unchanged
to find the ways in which you yourself have altered.
Nelson Mandela

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
1/31/08 -
5.0 SICHUAN-GUIZHOU BORDER REGION, CHINA
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.7 BANDA SEA

IRAQ - On Wednesday, police and residents in Kut, south of Baghdad, reported three earthquakes. The first temblor at 2 p.m. shook the town for about a minute, but caused no serious damage. There was an aftershock at 2:15 p.m. and another quake just after 10 p.m. People were scared and remained indoors, though most assumed the tremors were the result of a bombing or large explosion. There were no casualties. Witnesses heard announcements from the mosques, urging them to offer up a special prayer — called Ayat — reserved for catastrophic events such as earthquakes and hurricanes. One police official said they are waiting for a fourth earthquake. So far, nothing greater than 2.5 magnitude has registered on the U.S. Geological Survey website.

ALGERIA - An earthquake of magnitude 5.2 hit northeast Algeria today, in the same region that saw a major deadly quake in 2003. The earthquake hit 8 kilometers (5 miles) northeast of the town of Boumerdes at 8:33 a.m. Three people were lightly injured and no damages were reported. The quake prompted brief panic among residents of nearby towns and villages.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - massive waves and violent winds battered two ships, forcing them aground during storms overnight off Britain's northwestern coast. The coast guard successfully airlifted 23 people off a ferry that ran aground near England's Blackpool beach hours after a FREAK wave left it listing on its side Thursday night. Gale-force winds are hampering attempts to rescue the 14-member Spanish crew of a trawler on rocks off St. Kilda in Scotland's Western Isles. The Spaniards are trapped on the rocks under a cliff at St. Kilda, an uninhabited volcanic archipelago 65 kilometres west of Benbecula. The winds swirling around the cliff are making it difficult for a helicopter to approach the trawler.

AUSTRALIA - Darwin has been hit by earth tremors which triggered an Indonesian tsunami scare but Geoscience Australia said there was no tsunami danger to the Top End. One woman said the first tremor - and most powerful - shook the doors of her house in Bayview.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAME was 104 nmi SSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone GULA was 304 nmi S of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone GENE was 1037 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Gene - After devastating parts of Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Gene was approaching parts of New Caledonia, where it is expected to pass as a Category 3 hurricane with upwards of 120 mph winds. Gene crashed through the Fiji Islands between January 27 and 29. The storm was large and well-formed as it passed through Fiji, bringing high winds and heavy rain throughout the entire chain. For a significant stretch of its passage through the islands, it was rated as a Category 2 storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDONESIA - Floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains have killed at least 12 people across Indonesia and the capital's main airport was briefly shut as more than 40 flights were delayed due to low visibility.

SCOTLAND - Edinburgh has had its WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR MORE THAN 100 YEARS, with nearly three times the average amount of rainfall. 178 millimetres of rain have fallen in the Capital since the start of the month, the highest since they began measuring in the 1890s. They have warned people to prepare for more wet and windy weather over the next few days, with winds set to reach up to 60mph. Flooded roads have already caused misery for thousands of motorists around the Lothians this month, while the Water of Leith has almost reached bursting point. The pattern has been matched across Britain, with an average of 170mm of rainfall. This makes it the fourth wettest January nationwide since records began. There usually tends to be more rainfall in the summer.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
SCOTLAND has been warned to batten down the hatches today as winds gusting up to 90mph sweep in blizzards from the north. Forecasters said up to 4in of snow could fall in frequent and heavy showers, with twice that depth on higher ground. Roads are likely to be badly affected and schools closed in the north, which is expected to take the brunt of the onslaught. Winds were expected to reach 90mph in the most exposed places. "The very worst conditions will be in north Scotland. In the Highlands, there will be drifting snow and blizzards, and atrocious conditions." The storm was caused by an area of low pressure passing north of Scotland towards Norway, which would pull in very cold Arctic air.

NORWAY, SWEDEN - An extreme weather warning has been issued for the south of Norway and Sweden. The winter storm "Tuva" arrived with lots of high winds and rain and has passed Oslo now. Norway's newspaper "Aftenposten" states that "This is THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 10 YEARS THAT AN "EXTREME WEATHER" WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED in the Østlandet region. The coastal areas are expected to be hardest hit, with waves reaching up to eight metres high." The storm is moving across Scandinavia and is expected to die down within a day or so.

AUSTRIA - An avalanche swept through the popular alpine ski resort of Soelden on Thursday, and rescue workers were searching for three people feared buried in snow and ice. The avalanche occurred at around 4pm, officials in the province of Tyrol.

CHINA - Millions of Chinese are facing a humanitarian crisis as petrol and food reserves dwindle amid more forecasted bad weather. More than 160 counties and cities in central China were suffering blackouts and water shortages, including Chenzhou, in Hunan province, a city of four million that has been without power and water for more than a week. "Many trees are severed and power lines have collapsed. It's like we have experienced an air raid or lost a battle. It is a complete mess. We are hungry and cold." State television said Chenzhou's petrol reserves could only run for another seven days and its rice could feed residents for another five days. Cooking oil and vegetables were also running out, with prices surging. Residents were relying on fire engines for rationed drinking water. In another Hunan county, the ice on power cables was 6cm thick, underscoring the strains on the electricity grid. In hard-hit Guizhou province, prices of petrol and candles have quadrupled with the country already facing its highest inflation in more than a decade. "It is still snowing, no one knows when power and transport might resume." "We still have masses at train stations, bus stations, at airports and in crowded areas where perhaps some kinds of intestinal infectious disease could break out." Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi were all facing fresh storms.

CANADA - For a third day in a row Thursday, severe winter conditions battered every province, causing delays at airports and train stations, closing schools and wreaking havoc on roads and highways. Powerful winds ripped through Southern Ontario, heavy snow blanketed Vancouver and an Arctic ridge of high pressure froze the Prairies with temperatures dropping below -40 in some areas. Both Saskatchewan and Manitoba Hydro reported RECORD levels of power consumption. In fact, the only parts of the country without severe weather alerts were the Northwest Territories and Yukon. "If you look at our weather warning map, it is still solid red coast to coast. It is WACKY winter weather, but it is not out of the norm. There are periods in the midwinter when weather can be very active across the country. But it is UNUSUAL to have warnings in EVERY province at one time. That certainly doesn't happen every day." Environment Canada expected the worst of the cold in Southern Ontario to end Thursday, but extreme conditions are expected to continue in the northwestern parts of the province and into the Prairies.
Toronto is dealing with a massive low pressure system that will drop as much as twenty centimeters of snow on the city by midnight, Saturday. It is expected be a RECORD BREAKING DAY in Toronto as the most snowfall the city has seen on February 1st was back in 1967 when 8.1 centimeters fell. THAT RECORD WILL MOST LIKELY BE DOUBLED. Toronto will not see the worst of the storm. As much as thirty centimeters could fall in the Bancroft-Ottawa corridor.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - The Gulf has been experiencing FREAK weather this winter including gale force winds, floods in the lower Gulf and snow storms in Saudi Arabia. Cities in Lebanon and Jordan have been experiencing snow this week that is normally confined to mountain regions.

WISCONSIN - University of Wisconsin-Madison geologists recorded a tremor at 12:50 p.m. on Thursday that lasted a few seconds. They said the shaking, which some University of Wisconsin-Madison staffers and others felt Thursday afternoon near Lake Mendota, was most likely an ice quake caused by ice shifting on Lake Mendota. Ice quakes are usually accompanied by loud cracking noises, and a number of people called UW police and facilities staff to inquire about the rumbling disturbance. One man was fishing on Lake Mendota during the incident. "The ice moved 2 feet. It was a good 2 feet. I don't know where it went, because it didn't move up to the shore, but it moved a good 2 feet." The ice quake also caused a loud crack and left behind a pressure ridge on Lake Mendota. Ice quakes are caused by large shifts in ice and often triggered by drastic temperature changes - similar to those seen in the past few days. The ice quake was too small to cause any damage, but experts said it was THE STRONGEST ICE QUAKE THE AREA HAS SEEN IN NEARLY A DECADE.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA had its HOTTEST JANUARY ON RECORD this year, with the dry continent heating up as part of the global warming process.

U.S. - Is January the new March? Rare winter tornadoes in the Midwest. Powerful Pacific storms with hurricane force winds. More than 1,000 daily high temperature records. And that's just in the first month of 2008. Weather extremes are nothing new for this country. It's a big place that experiences lots of variability — more so than most other places. But are the extremes becoming more extreme? Some government researchers tracking Earth's climate say yes. "We're seeing a steady increase from the early 1970s to present." In 2007, nearly 42% of the contiguous U.S. experienced extreme weather events, the second highest for the index, which incorporates records dating back to 1910.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Thursday, January 31, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Nearly all men can stand adversity,
but if you want to test a man's character, give him power.
Abraham Lincoln

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
1/30/08 -
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.5 VANUATU
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.0 OFFSHORE LOS LAGOS, CHILE

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
IRELAND - A rescue team was due to try to recover Portrush Lifeboat after it was hit by a FREAK wave and trapped on rocks while trying to save three people on Rathlin Island. They tried to tow a boat with the three people off the rocks, but the line snapped forcing them into a second rescue attempt. "During that, what you would call a freak wave lifted them and pushed them aground. It literally left our lifeboat on the rocks...A large fishing boat from Ballycastle and Larne Lifeboat came to assist in the rescue operation. But by this time high water had passed and she (the lifeboat) was getting more high and dry. They tried from then until about 3am this morning to get her off the rocks."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAME was 231 nmi SW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GULA was 172 nmi NE of Plaisance, Mauritius.
Cyclone GENE was 1075 nmi NNW of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Gene was heading towards southern Vanuatu after battering the main islands of Fiji. The storm killed six people as it lashed Fiji and dozens of homes were flattened. Power was cut to half the island and many tourists were stranded. Gene was expected to hit Vanuatu late on Wednesday, carrying winds of up to 85 kilometres an hour. "If it continues on its current track, it will take it to the southern parts of Vanuatu and maintains its current intensity, then Vanuatu should be expecting at least a gale force storm."

Researchers say they have shown that a half-degree Celsius temperature rise in the Atlantic ocean fuelled a 40% increase in hurricanes. The team showed ocean warming is directly linked to the frequency, strength and duration of hurricanes. Hurricanes feed on warm water, leading to conventional wisdom supported by some recent research that global warming could be revving up more powerful storms. US researchers, however, last week challenged this view, saying global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes hitting the United States, with warmer waters resulting in atmospheric instabilities that prevent storms from forming.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MOZAMBIQUE - Flooding in Tete city, in central Mozambique, worsened on Tuesday, as the Zambezi river continued to rise, due in large measure to increased discharges from the Cahora Bassa dam. Unlike the flood in Tete in mid-January, this one really has swamped low-lying residential parts of the city. Dozens of houses in the Nhartanda valley, and in the Chingale, Matondo and Chingodzi neighbourhoods on the two banks of the river have been inundated. So rapid was the rise of the river that most of those whose homes were flooded did not even have time to remove their possessions. One of the five wells for the city has been submerged, leading to restrictions in water supply. A separate water system for the Mpadue neighbourhood is out of operation, because the flood has knocked down a pylon on the transmission line supplying the pumps with electricity. The Tete health authorities are worried that water borne diseases such as cholera could now spread, because so many latrines in poor parts of the city are now under water. On the south bank of the Zambezi, in Sofala province, the small town of Chemba is in danger of being isolated from the rest of the country. Flooding on the Sangadze river, a tributary of the Zambezi, threatens to cut the main access road to Chemba. Meanwhile torrential rains in northern Mozambique are threatening to cut the road between Nampula and Niassa provinces. Two concrete bridges are in danger of collapse.

AUSTRALIA - Graziers on the Warrego River near Cunnamulla in Queensland's south-west are reporting one of their BIGGEST FLOODS IN MORE THAN 10 YEARS. Floodwaters are now approaching the Queensland-New South Wales border. It has been almost two weeks since Charleville residents began evacuating due to flooding and the Warrego floodwaters are still causing moderate-to-major flooding south of Cunnamulla. Major flooding to the border is expected later this week.

BOLIVIA - Nearly 400,000 people living in the Andean city of La Paz have been forced to ration their drinking water after mudslides damaged water pipes last week, and the mayor said the shortages could last until March. Flooding and torrential rains have killed 40 people in Bolivia since November, wrecking highways, crops and thousands of homes. In eastern Santa Cruz province the damage to soybean crops and highways was estimated at between $200 million and $500 million. The flooding is blamed on the La Nina weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which has exacerbated Bolivia's rainy season. The local meteorological service forecast that rains will continue for at least another month. The situation has worsened this week, and 10 people were killed in the past five days.

CALIFORNIA - The severe winter storms that battered downtown Los Angeles last week dumped MORE RAIN ON THE CITY THAN FELL THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE OF 2007. A series of storms rolling in from the Pacific deluged southern California, with 17.3 centimeters (6.8 inches) of rain falling in Los Angeles in the space of seven days. The same rainfall measuring station received only 8.15 centimeters of rain throughout 2007, the city's driest year since records began. On average Los Angeles receives 38.4 cm of rain each year. Last week's storms caused minor flooding through parts of Los Angeles while three skiers died in RARE avalanches that struck mountainous areas to the north of the city.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - The storms have caused or exacerbated so many problems and affected so many people - the state papers estimate 77.9 million are suffering the brunt of the weather - that Beijing might easily be worried about maintaining its tight control on the population. The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, set to begin Feb. 6, has added significantly to the collective misery here. About 2.3 billion trips were planned during the holiday break and vast numbers of them were by poor migrant workers who only get home to see their children and families once a year. There are now about 200,000 migrant workers stranded around the train station in Guangzhou, 30,000 around Shanghai's stations and countless thousands more at train and long distance bus stations in other major centres. The authorities have urged them to go back to their work sites, but so many have resisted that in Guangzhou the army was brought in to keep watch over the shivering crowd. Adding to the misery is a coal shortage that has led to power rationing in 17 of China's 31 provinces, including blackouts. Food shipments are also at a standstill and prices are rising as a consequence, just at a time when everyone wants to stock up for the holidays. The poor are suffering massively from the storms, as many do not have central heating, but worse still, the ramshackle houses they live in can't withstand the severe weather. Accumulating snow has caused the collapse of 107,000 homes so far. Experts have long said that Beijing could have trouble on its hand if ever such a cocktail of disaster hits those who have been left far behind by China's spectacular economic rise.

THE MIDDLE EAST has been hit by a FREAK blizzard a few days after parts of China were blanketed in heavy snow. The Israeli weather service said up to 20cm (8in) of snow had fallen in Jerusalem. More was expected this morning. In Jordan, police said roads into the capital, Amman, were temporarily closed. In Syria, temperatures dipped below freezing and snow blanketed the hills overlooking Damascus. High winds of 70km/h (45mph) forced the closure of the Mediterranean ports of Tartous and Lattakia.
LEBANON - Heavy snow pummeled Lebanon on Wednesday leaving thousands without power or telephone lines, and causing widespread havoc on roads. Internal Security Forces declared emergency, warning motorists against driving on mountainous roads due to thick fog, snow and ice. Coastal cities saw heavy rain and the formation of a RARE thin layer of hailstones on cars and roads as TEMPERATURES REACHED RECORD LOW LEVELS. Tens of villages were isolated and lost power during the storm. The storm inflicted severe damages to crops and properties all over the Bekaa valley and most regions that lie 650 meters above sea level. Heavy snow fall paralyzed the villagers' movement and forced the closure of schools, stores and firms in mountainous regions.

NORWAY - Heavy snows and unstable temperatures have been setting off avalanches, snow- and landslides all over Norway. Geologists worry that current warning systems are inadequate, and can be life-threatening. Alarms went off again on Tuesday night after snow crashed down on the main E-8 highway into Tromsø in northern Norway. The slide measured around 50 meters wide and stranded two large trucks. Emergency crews spent hours searching the area with specially trained dogs. They determined around midnight that no one was buried under the masses of snow and rocks. Earlier in the day, another slide cut off the town of Veitastrond, about 45 kilometers from Sogndal. Around 100 residents lost road connections, electricity and telephone coverage but there were no injuries. The slides, however, are a major threat in the steep and often remote valleys of Norway. (photos)

WISCONSIN - a 49 degree change in temperature over 24 hours added to this winter’s BIZARRE weather. Temps Tuesday morning started at 43 degrees before dropping to a low of minus 6 Wednesday morning, with overnight wind chills reaching minus 30 degrees. “That’s pretty UNUSUAL - it was certainly an EXCEPTIONAL SITUATION.” Southern Wisconsin has been stuck in a number of very active weather patterns because of where the jet stream has set up. Aside from a few breaks here and there, every system seems to track from the southern Plains up through the area. “It’s a little bit UNUSUAL that we’ve been in this active pattern for so long.” Snowfall already is EXCEEDING WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE WHOLE WINTER. Madison and Milwaukee have recorded about 50 inches of snow, which is above the average snowfall totals for the entire winter. Milwaukee also saw its WARMEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD on Jan. 7 when the mercury hit 63 degrees. This year Wisconsin has had winter tornadoes, flooding, RECORD high temperatures, RECORD snowfall. Much of the UNUSUAL weather could be a result of a La Nina cycle in the Pacific, which generally brings more precipitation to the Ohio Valley. Wisconsin is on the northwestern fringe of the valley, which is why they could be seeing more snow.

ILLINOIS - Lincoln had its third-largest single-day change in temperature Tuesday, dropping from 62 degrees to 6 degrees.
In Belleville on Tuesday, there was a rapid drop in temperature, from a RECORD-BREAKING 73 degrees to a low of 13.

CALIFORNIA - A 39-year-old man died in the FIRST AVALANCHE-RELATED FATALITY IN DECADES in Sequoia National Park.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NIGERIA - For residents of Zamfara State and in fact the North West geo-political zone of the country, the past few weeks have brought about SOME OF THE MOST DIFFICULT WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. The dry season, known in this part of the world as Harmattan, has been in ITS WORST FORM IN LIVING MEMORY, bringing socio-economic activities to a halt. Harmattan is a dry and dusty West African trade wind that blows south from Sahara into the Gulf of Guinea between the end of November and the middle of March. When the Harmattan blows hard, it can push dust and sand all the way to South America. The harmattan haze is blowing across the North in an UNUSUAL manner. At its worst, the Harmattan comes with three harsh conditions: dust, wind, and cold. No meaningful activity can be carried out during this wind. Experts have ascribed the harsh form of Harmattan experienced in recent years to Global Warming. Things changed in 1990, when experts were worried that for a long time, there was no trace of Harmattan during its normal season. The erratic weather then was caused by "a very deep low pressure area centered on Europe and North America, which persisted between October and December 1990. In the last two decades, it has become UNUSUAL to have the type of Harmattan currently being experienced in the south. "All of us wake up late these days because the weather is so harsh. In the morning, the strength of the wind is so much that you feel as if your roof will be blown off. Honestly I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE and we are barely managing to cope." "Two years ago (2006), it had gotten worse, we thought it will subside, but last year, it was something else, this year again, we have seen it go worse than the previous years."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Shiloh Farms Recalls Shiloh Farms Organic Unhulled Sesame Seeds Because of Possible Health Risk
-Seoul Shik Poom, Inc. Recalls Frozen Salted Yellow Croaker and/or Frozen Dried Yellow Croaker Because of Possible Health Risk
-Deli Chef Tri-Bean Salad Recalled From Some Kroger Stores because the product has the potential to be contaminated with Clostridium botulinum.
-New Era Canning Company Announces New Nationwide Recall of Green Beans and Garbanzo Beans in #10 cans because they may have been processed under conditions which could have led to contamination by Clostridium botulinum bacterium spores.
-Raja Foods Issues Nationwide Recall on SWAD BRAND ABIL, GULAL, KANKU, KUM KUM, LAGAN SAMAGRI, AND POOJA SAMAGRI Containing High Levels of Lead.

Ethanol byproduct in feed may boost E coli in cattle - Recent studies suggest that an ethanol production byproduct that is widely fed to cattle may make cattle more likely to shed deadly E coli, possibly contributing to the surge in beef contamination cases in 2007. In 2007 there were 21 recalls, totaling a RECORD 33.4 million pounds of beef. The feed ingredient, called distillers' grain (DG), is what's left of corn or other grain after the starch in it is fermented into ethanol for fuel. Ethanol plants sell DG to cattle producers for feed. The material is cheaper than corn and other livestock feeds, helping cattle producers cope with high feed costs fueled by the ethanol boom, and yields valuable revenue for the ethanol plants. The possible link between DG and E coli levels may also have implications for the future of the ethanol industry. A 2006 study suggested that without the use of DG for animal feed, the benefits of ethanol production would be seriously undermined. Ethanol from corn yields 25% more energy than is required to produce it. However, this positive energy balance was attributed almost entirely to an energy credit for the DG yielded by ethanol production. The energy credit was given because the DG offsets the production of other commodities such as corn and soybean meal. Even if further research confirms a connection between DG and E coli in cattle, the USDA is unlikely to halt the use of DG in feed. The USDA's under secretary for food safety said the agency had no intention of restricting the use of DG. He said it would be up to the industry to decide how to deal with the problem.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The more things change, the more they remain...insane.
Michael Fry and T. Lewis

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
1/29/08 -
5.0 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
1/28/08-
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - A strong 6.6-magnitude earthquake rocked the eastern Indonesian province of Maluku today, prompting the issuing of a tsunami alert, which was later cancelled. The earthquake, which struck at 6.32pm AEDT, was centred 300km northeast of the East Timorese capital Dili, some 23km under the floor of the Banda Sea. "There is a tsunami potential. The quake has tsunami potential because it was shallow, at 23 kilometres. The area that should be on alert is around Timor." The US Geological Survey put the magnitude of the quake at 6.2, at a depth of only 10km under the sea floor. Witnesses in Dili said that the quake was not strongly felt there.

A new review of tsunami hazards concludes that the 2004 catastrophe was far from the worst tsunami possible in many Indian Ocean borderlands and an even bigger tsunami might possibly occur in the future. As part of their research, the authors of the study evaluated all known potential tsunami-generating sources in the vast area between Africa, Asia, Australia and Antarctica, and then calculated the impact of the tsunamis they can generate, should they rupture. The impact in Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion) and the Seychelles could be far greater than in 2004, particularly from earthquakes in Southern Sumatra and in South Java. Madagascar was found particularly vulnerable from South Sumatran tsunamis. Africa's east coast is vulnerable from south Sumatran tsunamis and, in particular, Somalia remains at high risk due to the focusing effect of the Maldives ridge. The Comoro islands located between Tanzania and Madagascar would probably be affected more severely than in 2004. The Strait of Malacca area also appears more vulnerable than in 2004 from earthquakes in the North Andaman. Large under-sea earthquakes in south Java would generate substantial levels of destruction in Northern Australia, despite the sparse level of development there.

HAWAII - More winds and high waves were sweeping Oahu on Monday, with UNUSUAL monster waves hitting eastern shores. The rough oceans caused Superferry officials to cancel the Maui run for a second day. Lifeguards were kept busy on Sandy Beach on Sunday, although most surfers stayed off the choppy seas with 15- to 20-foot waves. High surf hit most of the state's north- and east-facing shores. Weather forecasters say RARE northeast swells began three days earlier, related to the wintery weather that's hit Southern California.

NEW ZEALAND - FREAK wave drags boy to his death - Napier's notorious Marine Pde beach claimed another life after a five-year-old boy was torn from his mother's grasp and dragged out to sea by a freak wave. The boy's mother had grabbed at him but lost her grip in the force of the wave about 1pm yesterday. He was playing at the water's edge. Teenagers who pulled the boy ashore were said to be distraught and were given counselling. Staff from the Pacific Surf Life Saving Club had been driving along the beach on a quad bike, warning people that the conditions could be dangerous. In May 1997, a four-year-old drowned here after being picked up by a wave. A year earlier a woman was swept off the beach and drowned. In February 1996 a woman was swept off the beach by a rogue wave as she strolled along it with her family.

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - The mix of cold, clear air in recent days after a period of rain resulted in a small plume of steam and gas last week at Mount St. Helens. The plume was not high enough to create any hazards for planes or any cause for emergency alarms, but was a reminder that the volcano has been continually erupting lava since October 2004. "Whenever we have clear skies, just after a period of moisture, we often can see a plume. It's really interesting that this eruption is continuing; IT'S NOT THE NORM of other volcanoes around the world." The plume was formed Thursday, the same day as a 1.5-magnitude earthquake. A plume is created when rocks fall off and expose patches of hot lava. The hot lava makes contact with the extremely cold air, causing a plume of mostly steam and some gasses. The small earthquake was a routine occurrence. A swarm of earthquakes occurred in September 2004, that appears to have triggered the start in October 2004 of continuous non-explosive lava eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GENE was 1104 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone FAME was 266 nmi WSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GULA was 344 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

FIJI - At least six people have died, half of Fiji's population is without power and water, and tourists remain stranded after category two Cyclone Gene lashed Fiji. Winds gusted at 140km/h (88mph), tearing off roofs, causing flooding and bringing down trees and power lines. Hundreds of people took refuge in schools and government shelters after fleeing damaged houses. Forecasters warned of further serious flooding, as the tail-end of the storm dumped large amounts of rain on Fiji. The cyclone is moving slowly westward towards Vanuatu, forcing the authorities there to issue a cyclone alert. The Disaster Management Office in the capital Suva said the CYCLONE HAD NOT BEHAVED LIKE OTHERS. "We were not really ready for it since the hurricane just DEVELOPED ALL OF A SUDDEN, and then we were caught off balance when it struck. This one really followed a pattern that is quite different from the pattern that we normally follow. It is QUITE UNIQUE in a way."

MADAGASCAR - Cyclone Fame has killed two people in Madagascar and caused widespread damage to the world's fourth largest island. "The material damage is enormous in all four districts of Melaky region." The cyclone hit the Indian Ocean island's west coast on Sunday, leaving several hundred families in need of emergency assistance. It has since moved on. Last year, six cyclones hit the island killing at least 150 people and destroying homes and crops in Madagascar's worst season on record.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SAMOA - A clean up is underway in Samoa's capital, Apia, after extensive flooding caused by the HIGHEST RAINFALL EVER RECORDED by the local weather bureau. The 108 millimetres over the last four days came from a low pressure trough that emerged south of the country. Most businesses were closed, schools were dismissed early and many cars broke down in the floodwaters.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GREECE - SUDDEN heavy snowfall across much of Greece today and gale-force winds in the Aegean sea grounded dozens of flights, forced ships to remain docked in ports and cut power in many areas. Snow flakes even made a brief appearance over the Acropolis in central Athens with heavier snowfall causing traffic disruptions in the capital's northern suburbs. Dozens of domestic flights from Athens to the islands including Crete, Samos and Milos were cancelled due to the strong winds. Meteorologists said the weather would improve by tomorrow but temperatures would remain below freezing. "The winds will continue to be strong until tonight and temperatures will drop to minus 9 Celsius mainly in northern Greece."

TURKEY - Cold front brings snow and UNSEASONAL chill - Turkey has been struck by a cold weather front moving into the country from the Black Sea this week, affecting both the eastern and western parts of the country. More than 3,000 village roads around the country were closed to traffic due to heavy snowfall, and some cities were hit by avalanches. Many cities in Turkey have been experiencing freezing cold and heavy snowfall, causing daily life to grind to a halt in eastern, western and central parts of the country. The cold weather is expected to maintain its grip on the country until Friday. Meteorologists have warned farmers to take measures to protect their crops from frost, which is expected to be a threat until Feb. 1 in the inland areas of the Aegean and Mediterranean regions. Temperatures are expected to drop further, below seasonal levels, until Thursday. Both Ýstanbul and Ankara were also hit by strong winds, whereas Ýzmir was struck by a major storm.

CHINA - The Chinese government has deployed almost half a million troops to help people affected by the WORST WINTER WEATHER IN DECADES. Severe snow has hit central and eastern China, paralysing transport networks. The snowstorms, which began on 10 January, are the WORST SNOWSTORMS FOR HALF A CENTURY and have affected nearly 80 million people across 14 provinces. The central provinces of Hunan and Hubei have been hardest hit, but eastern provinces are also affected. Houses and agricultural land have been destroyed and at least 50 people killed. In Guangzhou, where up to half a million people were reported to be stranded at one point, travellers described grim scenes. The main station was besieged by "countless thousands of desperate and freezing people" too scared to leave in case they lost their chance to travel. "Railway stations in Guangzhou are a scene of horror." Officials are warning that more bad weather could trigger further problems.
The snowfalls have hit most parts of China continuously since mid-January and are expected to continue. In preparation, weather bureaus in many provinces decided to raise the weather warning to a higher level. "Snowy weather has lasted for half a month. It is QUITE RARE. In most cases, if one week is seen as a weather cycle, three cold days are followed by three warm days as temperature gradually rises. However, the three snowfalls nationwide this winter are quite UNUSUAL, with no warm days following."
In the past week, the snowstorms have hit the provinces in central, eastern and southern China - places that are used to mild winters, not extreme wintry blasts. "We've NEVER SEEN SUCH A COLD WEATHER LASTING FOR SUCH LONG A TIME." China's weather bureau Monday issued a RARE "red alert," warning of more severe snowstorms in the coming days.
There is no way to prove climate change is to blame for the EXTREME cold snap, but some Chinese government scientists see no other explanation for the wild temperature swings, particularly in the areas that have become accustomed recently to mild winters. The inclement weather and ensuing problems merely highlight the country's increasing vulnerability to the extreme weather swings characteristic of global climate change, experts say, and is likely to be repeated in future years. Vast areas of central and southern China have experienced the most severe winter in half a century in the past few days, coming on the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year. Although climate change is most closely associated with rising world temperatures, many scientists say it also increases the intensity of all kinds of weather. "Snow in the south of China? Whoever would have imagined that?" The situation starkly illustrates how extreme weather has the potential to bring the country to its knees. "China will be one of the countries most affected by climate change."

INDIA - Mustard seed production, that was estimated to be lower this year because of a fall in acreage, may decline further due to the cold wave in north India and rainfall in the eastern parts of the country. Cold wave conditions are prevailing over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand where minimum temperatures are four to six degrees below normal. Ideal temperature for mustard is between 10 degrees to 14 degrees. There could be a damage of 5-7% due to the cold waves. The inner seed of the crop has shrunk due to the cold waves and that will affect oil recovery. According to weather forecasts, there are ground frost conditions likely over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh during next two nights while isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over West Bengal and Sikkim.
INDIA - The desert hill station of Rajasthan Mount Abu is registering RECORD BREAKING COLD, enveloping the city with ice. The cold spell has broken the record of 58 years. Mount Abu saw sheets of snow as the mercury dipped to a low of minus six degrees Celsius. Mercury took a downward swing due to the absence of the western disturbances.

PAKISTAN - UNUSUAL EXTREME cold weather has brought electioneering to an almost freezing level in Chitral, with little outdoor election activities if any, being seen. With roads in the upper parts and peripheral valleys still blocked laden with snow, not much can be done by the contesting candidates in respect to their outdoor election campaigns.

RUSSIA - An avalanche in the central Russian region of Tatarstan killed at least four children Monday. The incident occurred in the town of Bugulma, about 450 miles east of Moscow, in a gully on the outskirts of town. Roughly a dozen children were playing the gully when they were buried by the snow. Preliminary information said rescuers were able to save nine children, who were taken to hospitals. Several were in serious condition. The incident was the second fatal avalanche in Tatarstan in as many days. On Sunday, a 15-year-old boy died in a gully in another part of the region.

CANADA has experienced THE DEADLIEST BEGINNING TO THE AVALANCHE SEASON ON RECORD. As of January 2008, there have been ten fatalities since the start of the avalanche season.
UNUSUAL winter weather hit both coasts - winter has been particularly nasty to the Atlantic provinces. "We've had more snow than the average snowfall up to this point in the winter but the frequency of storms transiting through is definitely ABOVE NORMAL." High wind warnings were issued for all four Atlantic provinces. Winter is still far from over. "In the next few weeks, there's a series of storms going through. It's going to be a busy couple of weeks." The blast of wintery weather to hit the East coast is unrelated to the WACKY weather conditions British Columbia experienced over the weekend. Some areas of Vancouver got to enjoy spring-like sunny conditions Sunday - in stark contrast to outlying areas which got more than 20 centimetres of snow. The conditions were attributed to an unstable air mass that blasted some areas with snow, while others experienced springtime weather.
On Tuesday in the Maritimes, snow and sleet brought havoc, leaving thousands without power in Prince Edward Island. In temperate Vancouver, heavy snowfalls caused commuter chaos. Frigid temperatures in the West are expected to last until the end of the week. "We've got some good extreme wind chills, with some parts seeing minus-50 wind chills with temperatures around -40 or the high minus-30s." "Places like Vancouver are getting UNUSUAL weather in that they're getting 10 or 15 centimetres of snow. They get snow, but the amount is usually less than that." But it's the EXTREME cold on the Prairies that causes the most concern. Uranium City in northern Saskatchewan - about 1,340 km north of Saskatoon - was the coldest place on the continent and possibly the entire planet at -59 C. It was followed closely by Aulavik National Park on Banks Island in the Northwest Territories at -57 C. Weather officials warned that a powerful cold front is racing toward southern Ontario, which could cause a flash freeze with temperatures plummeting to -10 C. The cold front would also usher in strong, Arctic air with winds gusting as high as 110 km/h in exposed areas near the Great Lakes. SaskPower in Saskatchewan recorded a RECORD POWER USE on Monday night and was expecting to set new records on Tuesday as the cold snap continued. The cold weather brought more bad news for residents of Prince George, B.C. where a massive ice jam in the Nechako River has caused flooding concerns since it started in December. Prince George has a total of 24 homes under evacuation order, with 47 additional households and 47 businesses at risk and under evacuation alert. The ice jam - which entered its 50th day Tuesday - has grown to 22 km in length, an increase of 15 km in the last week alone.

U.S. - Avalanche centers in the West issued warnings Tuesday as new storms lined up following a system that buried many areas in heavy snow, closing government offices, causing havoc on roads and even shutting down one ski resort. A search was under way Tuesday for three snowmobilers missing in the Colorado mountains. Blowing snow and avalanche danger caused new highway closings in Wyoming and Washington, where some schools were closed for a second consecutive day. The stormy weather also dragged bitterly cold air across the northern Plains, with the National Weather Service reporting a midday temperature of 24 below zero at Glasgow, Montana. North Dakota registered wind chills of 54 below zero early Tuesday at Garrison, with an actual low of 24 below at Williston. The weather service posted heavy snow warnings for parts of Washington, Oregon and Idaho, with a blizzard warning for the Snowy Range area in southern Wyoming. The Utah Highway Patrol says a winter storm has caused hundreds of wrecks all over the state, resulting in one death and multiple road closures. Heavy snow on Monday pummeled mountain areas from Washington state to northern Arizona as two storms converged, one from hard-hit California and another from the Gulf of Alaska. "It's VERY UNUSUAL. Typically the storm is not this widespread." Those storms were being followed Tuesday by a third storm, from the Gulf of Alaska, that threatened up to 20 inches of snow in Idaho's mountains during the night and into today. A fourth storm was on the way. "By Thursday, the next storm will be right on our doorstep. This is quite a storm system." The cold air and wind gusting as high as 45 mph also were heading into the Midwest, where fog already created problems for air travel Tuesday at Chicago. The roofs of several businesses collapsed under the weight of snow Monday in northern Idaho, while avalanches forced the evacuations of dozens of homes. On Tuesday, Interstate 90 at Snoqualmie Pass, Washington state's main east-west artery, was closed because of high avalanche danger. Several highways also were closed in the Colorado mountains, and sections of Interstate 80 were closed in Wyoming because of snow and wind-driven ground blizzards. The threat of flooding as heavy snow melted brought an emergency declaration on the Navajo reservation — sprawling across parts of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. At lower elevations of Arizona, heavy rain flooded some creeks and rivers.

SPACE WEATHER -
A massive asteroid that was first spotted only four months ago has just zoomed past Earth. The space rock, named TU-24 and roughly 250m in diameter, passed by at only around 1.4 times the moon's distance from Earth. The asteroid was so big that it would have caused devastating regional damage had it struck Earth's surface. Earth was never in danger of being struck by the asteroid as it passed. The asteroid's fly-by "is the closest until at least the end of the next century. It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2000 years."

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

HAITI - Extreme poverty is forcing Haiti's poorest people to eat dirt. Mud cookies - made from dirt, salt and vegetable shortening - have become popular among Haitians desperate to stave off hunger. The cookies - which are occasionally used by pregnant women and children as an antacid and source of calcium - have become a regular meal. Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and one of the most disadvantaged in the world. The mud cookies sell for around five cents each, compared to 60 cents for two cups of rice. (photo)

Monday, January 28, 2008 -

No update today or Tuesday.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
1/27/08 -
No quakes 5.0 or higher.

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