Y2K Predictions

MARCH 2000:

Cyber Siege - Don't drop your Y2K worries. Thanks in part to the billions spent fixing the global Y2K glitch, nothing much happened, but for those in the know, the sweaty brow still remains. For them, Y2K proved the world would stop without computers. Planes would fall from the sky; banks would lose their records; stock markets would crash; lights would turn off. The dark ages would be back with a vengeance. And for those in the know, all of these scenarios are still frighteningly possible, thanks to the computer criminal known as the hacker. "

FEBRUARY 2000:

Another Computer Bug Looms - Will electronic calendars recognize February 29th? Or will they incorrectly jump from February 28th to March 1st?

A sampling of Y2K glitches since Jan. 1

JANUARY 2000:

One of the world's most quoted Y2K computer bug prophets, Peter de Jager, says all is not over despite the almost total absence of Y2K glitches as the start of the year 2000 came and went. "Have you received your paycheck? Have you received your Visa bill? Have you received your electrical bill?" said de Jager, the Canadian technology expert widely credited with helping to sound the alarm to the world on the so-called Y2K problem. "None of these business processes have occurred yet. So, for anyone to suggest we're through Y2K is making the assumption that none of these business processes are going to be affected. That's an extremely naive assumption," de Jager said.

Think of Y2K not as an information age earthquake but as a steady stream of gradually more damaging tremors, information technology experts say. That's why the vast majority of Year 2000 computer problems won't turn up for days, weeks or even months.

Y2K: Was It All Hype, Or Disaster Averted?

Some Abroad Say the Y2K Fix Was In. The money spent on updating computers is drawing widespread popular outrage in many nations outside Europe and North America, where suspicions of overspending on the Y2K bug that never materialized are increasing with every day that passes without a computer breakdown.

Minor glitches related to the Year 2000 computer problem continue to pop up as the new year moves on. The latest victims are two MP3 software devices from Visiosonic and Audio Box, which crashed on users just as the new year rolled in.

DECEMBER 1999:

Y2K computer worries won't go away this weekend. Glitches are likely weeks, even months, into the new year. And a few may linger until 2001 and beyond. The Gartner Group, a technology consulting firm, estimates only 10 percent of all Y2K failures will occur during the first two weeks of January. Also look for trouble on Feb. 29, because some computers might not recognize 2000 as a leap year. Even Dec. 31, 2000, could be problematic because some computers might not be expecting 366 days next year.

A Y2K-triggered failure in credit card swipe machines caused frustrating delays for thousands of retailers and customers trying to ring up purchases across Britain on Wednesday. The machines, manufactured by Racal Electronics and supplied by HSBC, one of Britain's largest four banks, improperly rejected credit cards because of a failure to recognize the year 2000, a bank spokeswoman said. Retailers claimed they have so far lost $5 million in sales due to the problem, are reportedly threatening to bring a class action lawsuit against the bank. The Y2K glitch appeared to be the most serious to come to light in the days leading up to the new century. Linda Stryker, a public relations executive for HSBC in the United States, said the error should not hit any U.S. credit card swiping machines. She said it was specific to software used in machines in Britain.

Y2K analysts and Western governments are worried about the power grids of Romania and other eastern European nations from the Baltic states to the Balkans. Because the region's power grids are interconnected, failures in one country could trigger a temporary collapse of a neighbor's network. Aging Soviet-era nuclear power plants provide much energy to these countries. And while experts are reasonably certain Y2K-triggered failures at such plants would not lead to meltdowns or radiation releases, there is concern about widespread blackouts.

Potential Extremist Reactions to Y2K Detailed in ADL Report .

Investors don't fear as dreaded date nears - Much ballyhooed Y2K isn't having anticipated effect. "With just four days to go before the Year 2000 computer changeover, businesses and investors are increasingly acting as if they have little to fear from that once-dreaded turning point. Predictions that businesses would stockpile huge quantities of supplies and products to see them through Y2K-induced disruptions have not come true. Ditto for forecasts that investors would flee even the least-risky investments for the safety of U.S. government securities. "

The State Department said on Monday it was boosting security at U.S. diplomatic installations at home and abroad, and setting up evacuation teams to deal with any terrorism or other emergencies at the start of the year 2000.

Europeans scoff at Y2K predictions - U.S. exaggerates, they say

The Information Coordination Center (ICC) set up by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion at 1800 G Street, three blocks from the White House, is ready. Representatives of the Internet, telecommunications, airline, electric power, financial service, oil and gas, pharmaceutical and retail industries, as well as military and security operatives, will all be at the facility while the rest of us are celebrating the dawn of the millennium. Starting Dec. 27 and ending Jan. 5, 2000, the group of about 200 people occupying the eighth floor of the building will have access to more information on U.S. vital industries and government operations than any single peacetime body. Information will also be coming in from foreign companies and governments participating in the effort to give colleagues in the U.S. early warning of any year-2000 (Y2K) problems headed their way.

Bring on the excuse of the millennium. "Even before 2000 arrives, its namesake computer problem is taking the blame for late flights, weak corporate earnings and scattered systems crashes around the world...(Y2K) could be the greatest global alibi since El Nino blew over last year -- with some twists that make it both a more effective pat excuse and a more dangerous one."

Concerned that any technical failure in the earliest hours of Jan. 1 will be blamed on the Year 2000 computer problem, the White House planned to release figures Monday showing how often some systems typically break down. The move is precautionary, to avert public panic at the first sign of a disruption in electricity or another essential service that may coincide with the date rollover but was not caused by the computer glitch.

A Michigan man stockpiling food and fuel in preparation of possible Y2K problems escaped serious injury Friday when some of the propane gas he was storing in his basement exploded. The blast pushed out sections of the cement-block foundation, bowed walls and sprayed shards of glass over Alonzo Anderson's lawn, but he suffered only singed hair and a burn on his cheek. Anderson told firefighters he was afraid of what might happen on Jan. 1, so he hoarded large amounts of food, water and other supplies in his basement.

The 2000 computer glitch will cause many errors in automated systems worldwide but their combined damage will be "moderate," a United Nations-created information clearing house said on Monday. In its final report, the Washington-based, World Bank-funded International Y2K Cooperation Center said most critical systems "will function about as well as they normally do in the first days of the new year."It said computer errors that stop short of triggering shutdowns will lead to "degraded performance in many infrastructures," such as electricity generation and distribution.

Many U.S. drinking water providers and sewage treatment plants have failed to complete their preparations for the Year 2000 computer glitch, two private watchdog groups said on Friday, which could result in overtreated tap water and sewage overflow. "There are serious doubts that the 55,000 drinking water utilities and the 16,000 publicly owned wastewater facilities in the United States will be well prepared for Y2K," said a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Center for Y2K & Society.

A surprising number of small businesses are doing nothing to correct the Y2K bug that could raise New Year's havoc with their computers and other equipment. An October survey of 501 small employers shows 26% are unprepared. Virtually no small businesses launched efforts since an April survey. As a result, the estimate of unprepared firms has increased to 1.5 million from 850,000.

Some cures for the millennium computer bug might do more harm than good. With just about every big company in the world spending millions of dollars on new equipment to thwart the bug, experts are worrying that Y2K solutions themselves might actually lead to crippling computer crashes.

Bunkering down for Y2K

The Bermuda Stock Exchange has been bitten by the Y2K computer bug. The electronic exchange's daily trade report, published in the island's newspaper The Royal Gazette, has been listing dividend payout dates for two issues as 1900, a glitch that exchange officials said should be corrected by Monday. The glitch occurred as the exchange went back to using a computer system that was replaced last December while upgrading software that generates the daily trade results published in the Hamilton, Bermuda newspaper.

"The millennium computer bug has mutated from a time-bomb into a damp squib. Former Cassandras are backing away from horror scenarios which predicted chaos around the world as computers crashed at midnight on December 31, 1999 because of the ubiquitous bug. Now these experts are saying that thanks to their perception in identifying the problem and the effectiveness of their public relations campaigns, the world can party into the next millennium without fear. The lights won't go out at midnight. Telephones will work normally, after the traditional New Year phoning frenzy has died down. Jumbo jets will not fall from of the sky. Civilised life as we know it will not come to an abrupt halt."

New Y2K Threat - Computer Viruses. Anti-virus experts Friday said that they have detected a new virus that could make computers appear to have a Y2K problem January 1. When the computer restarts, the virus tries to erase data. At least four other Y2K -related viruses are known to exist. Two of them are also timed for the new year and two activate right away and spread by posing as Microsoft programs for fixing Y2K problems or as programs that count down to the new year. The lastest virus can activate during all of next year, so computers that are shut down on January 1 are not immune.

In Philadelphia, in November, jurors received notices to show up for jury duty in 1900 - an error caused by the Y2K bug in city computers. City officals thought all the potential computer problems had been fixed.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has drawn up plans that could include emergency oil supply and rationing if the Y2K computer bug plays havoc with global energy flows, a spokesman for the West's supply watchdog said Tuesday. The plan, to go for approval before the Paris-based group's board of governors on Dec. 10, would kick in if computer failures occur at the new year and cut deeply into industrialized countries' normal oil supply. Y2K would have to cause massive problems to trigger the plan, if the IEA uses its normal definition of a crisis as when 7 percent or more of world oil supply is threatened. Industrialized OECD countries consume around 45 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, so around 3 million bpd would have to be cut to reach that watershed. Mechanisms available to the IEA for dealing with major supply crunches include allocating oil reserves and restraining demand, for example with brief oil rationing.

Y2K EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE PETS - As people gather supplies to prepare for possible shortages, they should remember to include extra pet food, water and medication for their pets. Pet food manufacturers are dependent on the same distribution system as other food producers, and a malfunction in the system could affect the availability of pet food. Veterinarian Dr. Basko recommends keeping a three-month supply of dog or cat food on hand. Dogs need about one cup of water per 20 pounds of body weight a day; twice as much in hot weather. Cats need 1/2 cup for every 6 pounds of body weight. In a pinch animals can eat human food, but they need the right proportions of protein, starch, minerals and fats. A good formula for dogs is 1 cup of meat, 2 1/2 cups of rice and 1 1/2 cups of fruits and vegetables; feed 1/2 cup a day for every 10-20 pounds of body weight. Cats need twice the amount of protein (meat), and half the starch (rice), as dogs. Feed 1/4 to 1/2 cup twice a day. Keeping bandages, antibiotics, and heartworm medication on hand is a good idea.

Have a cat or dog? You can get free treat samples from Purina in the mail - they ask you approximately 10 easy questions about your pets (name, age, brand of food you usually buy, etc.)

NOVEMBER 1999:

Americans are less worried than they used to be that the Y2K computer glitch will cause big problems, but more of them plan to stockpile gasoline and food as precautions, a poll showed on Wednesday. Only 3 percent of those surveyed expected major problems from the so-called Y2K bug, in which computers might react as if it were 1900 instead of 2000 when the new year arrives, according to a nationwide poll conducted for the National Science Foundation (NSF) and USA Today. That was down from the 7 percent who had major problems with Y2K glitch in a similar poll conducted in August for the same group. But 55 percent said they would avoid traveling on or around Jan. 1, an increase from 43 percent in August. Forty percent of respondents, up from 36 percent in the August survey, said they would stockpile food and water, while 28 percent said they would stock up on gasoline, compared with 21 percent in August.

It won't be long before we learn the accuracy of the country-by-country Y2K readiness ratings by the GartnerGroup, a Stamford, Conn.-based company. But in the meantime, some countries are complaining the Gartner ratings have unfairly damaged their international image, perhaps even hurting foreign investment. "GartnerGroup has a vested interest in stirring up panic," said Jamaica's government Y2K coordinator, Luke Jackson, who said he was never approached by anyone representing the company. "They're consultants. That's what they do."

Managers of the commercial building systems that keep elevators running and offices warm have prepared for any problems from the Y2K computer bug, including setting up special Web sites and toll-free phone numbers. The managers say they expect no major disruptions from the millennium bug but have taken precautions that include having computer-dependent systems checked. Still, they are concerned about factors beyond their control -- such as the loss of electrical power.

Despite official assurances that there is nothing to fear from the year 2000 computer problem, unusual precautions are being taken by businesses that underscore their continuing uncertainty over the potential for a great glitch. Although hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent to repair Y2K problems in computer systems around the world, few companies or agencies are letting down their guard as the new year looms. Moved by a growing sense of their own vulnerability to Y2K disruptions outside their control -- a problem reflected in a new survey showing a troubling lack of readiness among major suppliers -- some companies are taking no chances.

An expert on South Africa's efforts to prepare for the millennium computer bug said Monday he could not be sure everything would go right during the switch-over to the year 2000. After months of work Louis Buys, who chairs the National Year 2000 Task Team and a key disaster management group, said critical systems could still go wrong at the municipal level -- the area seen as the biggest threat to overall stability. A U.S.-based IT consultancy had ranked South Africa in a high-risk category. But more recently it upgraded the country and now ranks it among just 17 -- including the U.S. and Switzerland -- that have done the most to be Y2K compliant.

Many in retailing are looking forward to a Y2K-rooted boom - not by selling survival gear before January 1, but by selling 'hooray-we're-alive-and-well' wares afterward. The so-called "January effect" believes that Americans who hoarded cash in anticipation of millennium computer problems at banks, will spend it when it becomes clear that the financial system hasn't crashed. That kind of spending boom would be a huge windfall for retailers, transforming what is typically the slowest shopping month of the year into a bonanza. Some are predicting a near spending freeze starting after Christmas and lasting into the first two weeks of January.


Euro deputies warn Y2K could cause atomic disaster. The European Parliament voted Thursday to ask countries to shut down their nuclear weapon alert systems over New Year to avoid accidental launches caused by the millennium bug computer problem.

The Clinton administration Thursday urged consumers not to panic and hoard milk, bread and toilet paper before Dec. 31 out of fear that the so-called Y2K bug will cause grocery shortages. In fact, grocery stores around the country have cleared their computer systems of any Y2K glitches and will have plenty of food on hand to greet the new year, U.S. officials and industry groups said. John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Y2K, said consumers should have a couple of days' worth of food on hand and should buy nonperishable items, such as canned goods, water and toilet paper, before the Christmastime rush. "It helps to prepare early," he said. Grocery stores generally keep between 30 and 60 days' of food on hand, either in the store or in nearby warehouses. Some stores have added a couple of extra days' worth to their supplies, industry groups said.

Y2K: Is NBC Being Irresponsible? Set to premiere on November 21, 1999, NBC's movie of the week Y2K is already causing upset and alarm. NBC reports that its phone lines have been overwhelmed by concerned groups and citizens about what may be portrayed during the movie.

President Clinton said on Wednesday that he expected key U.S. economic sectors and the national infrastructure to be spared any big failures caused by the 2000 computer glitch. "When it comes to financial services, power, telecommunications, air and rail travel, leading organizations report they have completed or nearly completed all their Y2K work," Clinton said. "I am confident the Y2K problem, therefore, will not put the savings or the safety of the American people at risk. But Clinton noted the council's concerns about some lagging small businesses, local governments, smaller health care providers and up to half of local 911 emergency services. The Central Intelligence Agency and State Department have predicted that Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are among those countries that may suffer "significant failures." "It is also worth noting that not every Y2K problem will be evident on Jan. 1. Difficulties in systems that are not Y2K ready may not surface until days or weeks after the date change."

The State Department will allow "the most anxious government employees" (as well as the moderately worried, and those seeking a free trip home) in four former-Soviet embassies to return to the States for 15 or 30 days over New Year's. The price tag for the exodus may run as high as $8 million. Those who stay don't expect a meltdown; without electricity and heating, however, there may be a freeze-up. Diplomats and embassy employees in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova qualify. No word on how the host countries feel about this vote of confidence in their technical know-how.

The major phone companies are sending a New Year's plea to customers: Don't pick up the phone and check for a dial tone just after midnight on January 1!! They fear that millions of people will do just that, to see whether their phone service survived the Y2K bug. With all the regular New Year's Eve calling, there's a potential for an overload that could leave some callers hearing nothing or just a fast busy signal.


New Zealand to face Y2K first - World will be watching for clues on what to expect.


5 Reasons Y2K May Give You the Creeps


The lights will stay on as the year 2000 arrives, the firm which helped to alert the world to the dangers of the millennium computer bug predicted Tuesday. In a report, U.S. technology consultancy Gartner Group said electricity supplies around the world will remain more or less stable as clocks strike midnight on December 31. Countries where electricity supplies are usually reliable can expect business as usual. Third world countries can expect the normal level of power cuts.


All 565 U.S. airports subject to federal oversight have met safety and security requirements for the Year 2000 rollover, the government said in a report to be released Tuesday. The Federal Aviation Administration said it had established the Y2K readiness of airports served by aircraft with more than 30 seats through interviews, site visits and contingency-plan reviews. The safety concerns involved airfield operations such as lighting control, firefighting response and radio communications.


Russia's electricity monopoly will shift its huge grid to manual control on Dec. 31 to ensure it avoids "millennium bug" outages, system officials said. Russia is considered one of the countries most vulnerable to potential problems when the changeover from 1999 to 2000 is expected to effect many computers whose chronometers cannot distinguish between the years 2000 and 1900.


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Year 2000 News If you are looking for a link to tons of newspaper articles featuring Y2K stories, this is it. Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility offers an extensive list of Y2K rumors, speculation and predictions. Prepare4Y2K contains advice, rumor, opinion, speculation and innuendo along with links to other Y2K sites.

President's Council On Year 2000 HOTLINE 1-888-USA-4Y2K (toll-free) - This is a U.S. government pre-recorded message on Y2K preparations, available 24 hours a day.
Y2K Federal Government Web Page

Yahoo has launched Yahoo! Millennium - a comprehensive Year 2000 source that includes the latest Y2K news, an up-to-the-second countdown clock, a Year 2000 Site of the Day, as well as millennium shopping, travel and auction opportunities. Users also can join millennium-related communities and discussions on Yahoo! Chat, Yahoo! Clubs, and Yahoo! Message Boards, in addition to accessing companies' Y2K compliance statements.

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Prior Y2K Articles