OCTOBER 2001:
Muslims warn U.S. against war during Ramadan - Holy month attacks could be "explosive," one leader said. But a delay may be costly. Muslim allies, whose support is considered essential to the U.S. antiterrorism campaign, are pressuring the United States to score a major victory on the ground before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan begins around Nov. 17 - or agree to a lengthy delay in the Afghan operation.
Key details about secure bunkers used by President Bush and Vice President Cheney are available on the Internet, ABCNEWS has learned. The locations and layout of presidential and military command centers even information about their water supply are accessible worldwide at the click of a mouse. Since the Sept. 11 terror attacks on the United States, some of the Web pages have been removed, but others remain.
There is no guarantee against more terrorist strikes, but America is secure and getting safer, Tom Ridge, the nation's first director of homeland security, said.
Is Saddam Hussein next? While the American-led coalition attacks Afghanistan, a fierce battle is being waged inside the Bush administration over whether to make Saddam Hussein's Iraqi regime the next target in the war on terror.
President Bush has told the world that the battle likely will still be blazing next month, even though Ramadan, holiest month in the Islamic religious calendar, is just weeks away. That raises fears that the United States will deeply offend Muslims worldwide, when the holiday starts Nov. 16.
The United States might not consider itself in a holy war - but Osama bin Laden does. And we're in danger of helping him prove his point. "The more we make him into the great figure of Islamic defense against western power and might, the more danger we get into creating sympathy for him," said author James Reston Jr., whose books have covered the crusades and the Jonestown suicide cult. "He has a grand vision of this great conflict between good and evil, and he represents good." "Bin Laden has wanted to get the United States to respond in a military way, as indeed it is doing. So from his viewpoint, the U.S. attacking is something that he wants because he hopes that this will inflame the Muslim world and lead him to recruit more supporters."
Experts Say Keep Chemical-Weapon Fears in Context - The trick for the average person, they say, is to understand how to put the natural fear of such a terrible - but small - possibility into context.
Officials Fear More Americans Are Targeted - American tourists overseas, particularly in Asia, are being warned that they could be targets for kidnapping or assasinations. The U.S. State Department issued a "worldwide caution" to U.S. citizens valid until 3/12/02.
"The International News of Pakistan, usually a reliable source of early information about events in Afghanistan, has just published a story to the effect that Ismail Khan, a famous Afghan leader, is moving to take the southern city of Kandahar, with the help of US Special Forces units. In a separate story, Attorney General John Ashcroft has said that the danger of terrorism in the US is still extremely high. Last Sunday, Reuters reported that a second attack could take place within a week. This has not happened. However, if the Taliban or Osama bin Laden come under serious pressure, it is obviously possible that they will attempt to respond with additional terrorism." To read these stories, go to: www.unknowncountry.com
An abandoned American embassy in Kabul was set ablaze by protesters as U.S. troops line up near Afghanistan. Reports say Osama bin Laden has been plotting to kill President Bush for some time, including a planned attack on world leaders meeting in Italy last June.
The nation's 103 nuclear power reactors are vulnerable to acts of terrorism and the government should immediately station soldiers and missiles around each plant for protection, two watchdog groups said. Nuclear power plants are located in 31 states. U.S. soldiers would have about seven seconds to fire a missile and destroy a commercial airliner that is one mile from a reactor and traveling 500 miles per hour.
The United States will not launch a massive D-Day invasion to win its war on terrorism, but is preparing for a long, deadly fight following Sept. 11 attacks on America.
Should You Buy a Gas Mask? Experts discuss the merits of gas masks amid fears of a chemical or biological terrorist attack. Some question how effective the masks would be - and whether they could be used in time.
In an emotional speech to the Labor Party conference, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has warned that military strikes against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan are imminent as the U.S. military dispatched another aircraft carrier in the war against terrorism.
SEPTEMBER 2001:
Last week's attacks show traditional methods of fighting the enemy may not work against the terrorists of today. What will 'the first war of the 21st century' be like?
Biowarfare - what to expect and to what degree the U.S. is prepared.
. I would hope that those who caused this great and terrible tragedy in the United States are aware of the prophetic words uttered by Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto, who planned Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. He said: "I fear that all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant, and filled it with desire for vengeance."
"If there are Americans clamoring to bomb Afghanistan back to the Stone Age, they ought to know that this nation does not have so far to go. This is a post-apocalyptic place of felled cities, parched land and downtrodden people...Wars fought by sundry protagonists have gone on now for 22 consecutive years, a relentless drought for four.
Comprehensive coverage of the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center .
Workers with the UN's World Food Program predict millions of Afghanis will starve this winter unless more food aid is delivered.
U.S. Warns of Possible Terrorist Attack in Japan - The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo has warned Americans in Japan to be on guard after officials received information about a possible attack against U.S. military facilities or places in Japan frequented by U.S. military personnel..
Russian experts have voiced concern about U.S. plans to develop a potentially more lethal version of the bacterium that causes deadly anthrax, but the government refrained from immediate reaction. The Pentagon confirmed its intention to conduct the research once legal reviews have been completed and the U.S. Congress has been informed. Some experts have pointed out that such work could violate the 1972 global ban on developing or acquiring biological weapons.
Global military spending is rising at an alarming rate after years of decline. According to the Stockholm Institute, there were 25 major armed conflicts in the world last year, 23 of them inside poor countries "that could least afford such a tragic waste of precious human life and scarce economic resources.
The first euros are moving to the banks. It's the first step in a revolution for Europe.
AUGUST 2001:
No Israeli targets off-limits, Hamas spiritual chief warns.
JULY 2001:
Why is the new Bush administration preparing to go to war with China?
Beijing's Olympic bid is controversial because people disagree as strongly about what kind of place China is becoming as they do about what the Beijing Games would look like. Looking into the future.
JUNE 2001:
A new Army-commissioned report says soldier rations of the future may be able to grow quickly, fight off disease and make warriors glow.
Osama bin Laden may be planning an action against President Bush at the upcoming G-8 summit in Italy in July, Russian security chiefs warn.
Emerging Threat for U.S. Air Force - New 'Passive' Radar, Under Development by Russia and China, Could Threaten Stealth Aircraft.
Israel's future as the Jewish State is under threat from the ongoing population boom among Palestinians and Israeli Arabs, according to a demographic working paper written by the University of Haifa's Prof. Arnon Soffer. "The trends and indicators all point to an economic and ecological catastrophe waiting to happen, and of the death knell of the ideological dream of a Jewish State."
MAY 2001:
Convicted terrorist Ahmed Ressam has told federal prosecutors that Los Angeles International Airport was to be a target of a millennium attack by Islamic fundamentalists. Ressam was arrested Dec. 14, 1999, at the Black Ball Ferry Terminal in Port Angeles as he entered the U.S. from Canada in a rental car loaded with explosives and bomb-making materials. Agents have also speculated that Ressam and the Montreal-based terrorist network to which he belonged may have had other targets, ranging from the Space Needle to the TransAmerica tower in San Francisco to New York's Times Square.
The Israeli army says it is establishing outposts in a number of buildings in Palestinian territory. It comes as the prospect of "all out" war in the Middle East came a step closer, after comments by the Israeli public security minister.
Most Israelis now believe that the peace process has dissolved and become a part of history. Even worse, most of them now believe that it was a mirage from the start.
U.S. Warns of Bin Laden Threat to Americans Overseas - In a "worldwide caution" announcement the State Department said that U.S. government facilities remained at a heightened state of alert The United States has warned Americans abroad to step up vigilance against possible attacks by groups linked to Saudi-born dissident Osama bin Laden, who is allegedly behind U.S. embassy bombings that killed 224 people.
President Bush's missile defence plan has met, at best, muted support in Europe, ill-disguised irritation in Moscow and outright hostility in Beijing. In Britain, the Guardian called the policy a "historic mistake that will have dangerously negative repercussions worldwide."
APRIL 2001:
The Pentagon is now daring to utter words that were suppressed during the Clinton years: new nukes. If the United States is going to possess nuclear weapons in the future, current systems will eventually have to be replaced.
Chinese computer hackers are threatening a large-scale attack on U.S. Web sites this week beginning May 1st, and the Pentagon is taking defensive measures.
Miss Israel will wear bulletproof dress in the Miss Universe contest, May 11.
The standoff over Americans detained in China has been settled, but is a cyber-war brewing online? As the war of wills raged over a U.S. surveillance plane crew detained in China, a war of words erupted on the Web, where self-styled Chinese hackers are vowing to attack American Internet sites.
The sometimes-unpredictable behavior of plutonium -- the world's most feared element -- is now considerably more predictable, an achievement that could help ensure the safe maintenance or disposal of nuclear weapons.
What's next for Latin America? With an economic downturn looming in the United States, some fear Latin America is headed back to the 1980s, known here as "the Lost Decade" because of the economic stagnation and inflation that in some countries reached thousands of percentage points a year.
"Our new president is incredibly adept at making self-fulfilling prophecies. First, there were his negative comments about the economy for over a year during the presidential campaign, which may have actually helped to slow down the economy. Then, on foreign policy, Bush downgraded our relationship with China from "strategic partner" to "strategic competitor." Although the two phrases might sound equally meaningless (sort of like "compassionate conservative"), the Chinese apparently didn't think so."
MARCH 2001 -
Economists have hard evidence that an economic tsunami is bearing down on Japan. A financial disaster of the size implicit in their latest numbers would send huge waves everywhere. Japan is the largest economy in Asia. The spending power of its 127 million residents exceeds that of the 1.8 billion inhabitants of East and Southeast Asia. It is also the world's largest gross and net international lender, with over $2.5 trillion outstanding - so that its financial troubles could disrupt global financial markets.
Macedonian violence erupts again, world worried - March 15: Macedonian troops battled ethnic Albanian guerrillas with mortars and machineguns in the northwestern city of Tetovo in a second straight day of fighting which has triggered fears of a new Balkan war.
Peru's election written in the stars? Peru is a mysticism-mad country where even many top politicians and business leaders seek weekly guidance from astrologers or witch doctors.
FEBRUARY 2001 -
After three years and $143 million, the U.S. Army National Guard has no anti-terrorism teams ready to respond to nuclear, chemical or biological attacks because of defective safety equipment and poor training, an internal Pentagon review found. The Pentagon inspector general report said preparedness is so bad that Guard members at one point were given mobile labs with air filters installed backward and gas masks with incompatible parts.
An idiot's guide to becoming a successful pundit - "One only has to find out what the other pundits are saying, then declare the opposite as the actual truth. More often than not, the professional prognosticators will be singing in a chorus, allowing the practitioner of Costanza Punditry to sit back in smug glee as his opposite predictions come true."
TV networks' hasty predictions of the presidential election affected voting, probe says.
JANUARY 2001:
Record cold has collapsed power grids in Russia. Next year could be worse. Analysts have been warning of nationwide infrastructure breakdown in Russia, predicted for 2003. Many say the current energy crisis shows that the breakdown is already under way.
Roughly two years before last October's attack on the USS Cole, a suspected terrorist told the FBI of plans to attack a U.S. warship visiting Yemen. The FBI says it sent out a classified warning to U.S. government agencies.
For many Indonesians, the ominous rumblings of the Mount Merapi volcano in the mystical heartland of Java is an omen of a looming political eruption. With President Abdurrahman Wahid under mounting pressure to quit, they are closely watching the smoke and lava of Merapi, believed to herald upheavals such as a leader's downfall. Javanese cultural expert Suryanto Sastroatmadja said Merapi's rumblings had preceded political turmoil for centuries. "When the political situation was critical... Merapi erupted."
Chinese around the world welcomed the Year of the Snake - a period Chinese astrologers say could be lucky for the new U.S. president but dangerous for the leaders of China and Taiwan. . The snake can bring upheaval, revolutions and disasters. But this year won"t be a time of great change, predicted Taiwanese astrologer Shao Chung-ling, a master of the Book of Changes, an ancient Chinese book used for predictions.
Incoming U.S. President George W. Bush will encounter a world dominated by peace among nations, but a shaky peace requiring active engagement to contain civil strife from Africa to Central Asia. Bush has a "unique window of opportunity in a world moving towards greater peace than at any time in the past century," according to a new study. It documented three positive trends leading to greater world peace: - A nearly 50 percent reduction in the number and intensity of armed conflicts. - A growing number of power-sharing settlements that have ended ethnic fighting within countries. - Twice as many democratic governments as autocratic ones. The report flagged 33 at risk of violent conflict and instability for the foreseeable future.
A leading Japanese expert on earthquakes said that prediction of a deadly tremor like the one that rocked Central America on January 12th remains impossible despite huge efforts using modern technology.
Mideast hopes dim as violence flares. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are in a race against the clock to arrive at a peace deal before President Bill Clinton leaves office. But as violence in the region flares up again, a deep pessimism has set in.
DECEMBER 2000:
The risk of a missile attack against the United States involving chemical, biological or nuclear warheads is greater today than during most of the Cold War and will continue to grow in the next 15 years, according to a global threat assessment by the National Intelligence Council. The report also concludes that terrorist attacks against the United States through 2015 "will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties."
Tecumseh's curse - Beginning with Harrison elected in 1840, every President elected at 20 years intervals thereafter, died in office, except Reagan and even he barely escaped an assassination attempt. George W. Bush is the next in line. (In addition to Harrison, those that met their deaths in office at the 20 year intervals were Lincoln, elected in 1860: Garfield, in 1880; McKinley, 1900; Harding, 1920; Roosevelt, 1940; and Kennedy, 1960.)
The legendary Tecumseh curse originated from the Shawnees after General Harrison and his forces broke the power of the Native American military movement in 1811. Tecumseh reportedly foretold:
" Harrison will not win this year to be the Great Chief, but he may win next year. If he does, he will not finish his term. He will die in his office... and after him, every Great Chief chosen every 20 years thereafter will die."
These seven named were the only Presidents that actually died in office from George Washington to now, with one exception, Taylor, a victim of cholera, but elected in 1848. From 1840, assassinations were successful only against Presidents elected in 20-year increments.
Priests of the Afro-Cuban Santeria religion have prophesied a potentially turbulent 2001 for Cuba and the world, including stormy weather, threat of war, migratory chaos, marriage woes and growing promiscuity.
Now that he's been turned back by the slimmest of margins, will Vice President Al Gore be back in four years for another try at the nation's highest office? For clues to his intentions, political scientists and other observers say to keep an eye on the next job he takes.
Scary thought from MGB, a professional business astrologer: "Astrology shows that 100% of the Presidents died in office when they were elected in years that coincided with Jupiter and Saturn coming together in the same earth sign. This has never failed. In 2000 these two planets came together in the sign of Taurus, an earth sign, so President Elect Bush will not leave office alive."
"When I was young, people said that anyone could become president. Now I'm starting to believe it that it may be true." - Clarence Darrow
It's likely that Texas Governor George W. Bush will be the next president. Many people worry that his future Supreme Court appointees will threaten legalized abortions. What is more likely is that Bush's appointees will threaten clean-air standards and environment protection laws.
NOVEMBER 2000:
When CNN commentator Jeff Greenfield's comic novel, "The People's Choice," was published five years ago, the plot seemed a little far-fetched. Now, in the wake of the most controversial election in more than a century, Greenfield's political scenario is too close to reality for comfort.
Growing levels of salt in the soil is wreaking a biblical style of revenge around the world. "Rising salinity is hitting farm lands and threatening crops in as far flung areas as Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, China, Thailand, Uzbekistan, California, South America and South Africa. Salinity is not new, having helped create deserts in Babylonian times and to drive ancient tribes to extinction. But it is getting worse, with intensive farming and massive dams and irrigation projects spreading around the world. Australia, the driest, oldest, flattest continent with vast broadacre farms created by European colonisation, has one of the worst cases of it."
Net had no electoral crystal ball - The Internet had a chance to shine, but faced same pitfalls and limitations as TV.
"Eventually, somebody is going to be a hero, and somebody's going to be president. Not necessarily the same person."
- HOWARD H. BAKER Jr., former senator of Tennessee
Chaos, vagueness, and presidential polls - "Only two months ago, seven out of seven political forecasters attending the annual American Political Science Association meeting predicted Vice President Gore would emerge victorious in the impending presidential election. With only days to go, the polls seem to tell a different story."
Ralph Nader crashed the Republican National Convention and is now making the Democrats sweat. But will the Green Party candidate make a difference on election day?
U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are on the highest state of alert following new indications of terrorist threats in those Persian Gulf countries>
OCTOBER 2000:
With the presidential election apparently coming down to a photo finish, pollsters predict that voters concerned about clean-air and clean-water issues could turn the tide.
"While the world's attention has been focused on revolt in Yugoslavia and violence in the Middle East, a quiet but historic change is being signaled from another part of the globe. North Korea this week sent a senior official to meet with President Clinton in what is thought to be the highest-level meeting ever between the two countries. US officials are careful to emphasize, however, that the process of North Korea's opening to the rest of the world is only beginning. President Kim Jong Il is considered to be unpredictable, and so far the d้tente has been characterized more by words than by actions."
Although the next Summer Olympics are four years away, serious questions are being raised about Athens' ability to host the games. The U.S. is particularly worried about terrorism and the safety of its athletes. American diplomats living in Athens live under daily threat of terrorist attack.
SEPTEMBER 2000:
A senior Muslim official warned of violence if Israel continued to prevent construction at a Jerusalem holy site at the heart of faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Saddam Hussein Is Itching for a Fight, U.S. Officials Say. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has been orchestrating a series of provocative acts designed to lure the United States into a military response and focus world debate on U.S. policy toward Iraq.
After the presidential election is over - are the promises kept?"The record shows that politicians are actually pretty good at keeping their word - or at least part of it. Whatever their motivations - desire for a solid legacy or hounding by interest groups, or both - they usually plug hard to deliver the basics of their plans."
(The Jerusalem Post) - "Fateful September 13 has come and gone. Yet still the sky hasn't fallen - contrary to dark predictions that it would. Nonetheless, doomsayers insist the danger hasn't passed. Only the deadline has. This deadline. But deadlines come and go and others have already been set. Hence time is yet again of the essence. So asserts US President Bill Clinton. He misses no opportunity to warn of the disaster ahead, should we miss one more chance to do as he wishes. "
.Bumpy Days for Mr. Bush - Has the G.O.P. presidential candidate's campaign simply hit a rough patch, or is it heading into a steep dive? Is it too soon to tell?
U.S. officials are readying at least one Patriot anti-missile battery as part of a contingency plan to protect Israel in the event of an Iraqi attack. The move comes as U.S. officials have monitored increasingly heated Iraqi rhetoric over the past several weeks.
AUGUST 2000:
Jon Majdoch and Jalem Getz, founders of BuyCostumes.com, an internet retailer of costumers and masks, say every presidential election since 1980 could be determined by sales figures for Halloween masks depicting the candidates. ``We can predict who's leading, absolutely,'' Majdoch said. ``We're gonna be saving CNN a lot of money on their polling data.'' But so far, this year's race is proving difficult to call.
Academics Predict Victory for Al Gore and the Democrats
"Forty years after the first wave of independence sparked great hopes for the continent, Africa faces a bleaker future than at any time in the past century. The number of simultaneous, multiple crises that the continent faces right now is unprecedented."
Britain"s Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson warned in remarks published on Sunday that a bloody feud between pro-British guerrilla bands could create an "explosive situation" threatening the province's fragile peace.
"Russia faces disaster as everything from airplanes to elevators goes without the maintenance vital to keep aging machinery running safely. In their annual forecast released in January - one that drew quick comparisons to Nostradamus' darkest prophecies - Shoigu's experts predicted that the country could face a steady string of technological disasters starting with fires, collapsing buildings and breaking pipelines, and ending with leaks of radiation and poisonous chemicals. Experts have warned that if the current shortage of funds for new equipment and maintenance continues, most of Russia's industrial equipment could be unusable by 2007."
"Ventura prophesies doom and gloom: Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura, who quit the national Reform Party earlier this year, predicted the past week's raucous convention was the beginning of the group's demise."
With numerous signs the U.S. economy is cooling off, investors are betting the Fed will not raise interest rates on August 22nd.
Prominent Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky said he expected further bombs like the one which killed seven people in Moscow Tuesday because of Russian President Vladimir Putin"s stance on Chechnya.
A senior Palestinian negotiator hinted that Palestinians could resort to violence if there is no peace deal with Israel by mid-September.
Indonesia is rumbling. And the political tremors are more alarming to the country's 210 million people than the infrequent earthquakes that shake Jakarta's high-rise buildings.
Thailand could soon pull the rest of Asia down, sparking yet another Asian financial crisis that would shake the world. Signs are emerging in Southeast Asia that strongly suggest a relapse of the economic crisis that struck the region in 1997. And, adds this week's Stratfor.com analaysis, American prosperity may be partly to blame."
"Slobodan Milosevic clings to power in Belgrade with a tenacity and a ruthlessness that should remind a distracted world of the human capacity for evil, and the difficulty of confronting it... Another explosion is imminent, and once again America and Europe pretend not to see."
JULY 2000:
Newsweek, July 24th - "An article predicts that although the $145 billion Florida tobacco verdict will be overturned, it will inspire numerous copycat cases that could bankrupt the industry. Big Tobacco's tactic of focusing on its recent good deeds did not impress the jury, which harbored a deep-seated hatred for the industry."
What are the chances that this Middle East summit will work?
The Chinese are invading Russia - not with tanks but with suitcases. 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months. Reported by The Moscow Times, the claim is likely exaggerated, but increased Chinese migration is marking a return of Chinese influence to these territories. And any territorial dispute could disrupt relations between Asia's largest continental powers.
Facing a deadlock and a deadline, neither the Israeli nor the Palestinian side is too optimistic about next week's summit at Camp David.
JUNE 2000:
" Mexico's 'perfect democracy' on the eve of demise? In Mexico, it may be the end of an era. If the world's longest ruling party loses power this Sunday, the country will be shaken to its foundations. "
Vice President Al Gore will win the upcoming presidential election, grabbing 56.1 percent of the vote - that is, if Christopher Wlezien's recently published formula for election forecasting is as accurate as it was in 1996, when it statistically predicted President Bill Clinton's victory within one-tenth of one percent.
The U.S. Embassy in Amman says it has learned it may be the target of a terrorist attack. As the building is fortified with sandbags and cement blocks, Americans in Jordan are being warned to travel with care.
Korean-Americans cautious on reunification prospects between North and South
George W. Bush is enjoying a comfortable lead in the polls, but history shows high June numbers often lead to heartache in November.
MAY 2000:
In the Academic Crystal Ball, a Gore Landslide. "So how exactly did Al Gore win the election of 2000? By making the clever decision to run in the midst of an economic boom and by choosing to succeed a popular incumbent. You didn't realize that Mr. Gore has won the election? A technicality. According to half a dozen political scientists who have honed and polished the art of election forecasting, the die is all but cast many months before Americans will vote. They say that Mr. Gore will win 53 to 60 percent of the vote cast for him or George W. Bush."
Polish government looks doomed to collapse.
News of huge oil deposits discovered in the Kashagan field off the shores of Kazakhstan could shake up the worldwide oil industry and the future of the entire Caspian Sea region. Optimistic estimates of the contents of the oil field reach 50 billion barrels of oil, which would make it second only to Saudi Arabia's Ghawar deposits.
The Future of New York Mayor Giuliani - a senior Republican official close to Giuliani, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that the mayor was leaning toward quitting. Republicans must choose a Senate candidate by May 30, when they hold their state convention.
APRIL 2000:
A Younger Assad Is Planning Syria's Future. "In a series of liberalization moves stark by Syria's cautious standards, the government of President Hafez Assad has begun embracing the information age, moving to modernize its economy and expanding incentives for foreign investment. Though the pace remains tepid, and recent changes too new to predict results, diplomatic officials, business people and others here attribute the new atmosphere to the influence of the president's eldest son, Dr. Bashar Assad."
Ethiopia's Choice: War or Famine? "As months passed without rain and the earth turned to rock, the government of Ethiopia did two things. To the West, it issued increasingly insistent demands for food for its hungry people. At home, it sent 100,000 more troops to the rocky trenches facing a disputed border with Eritrea. Now, as the alarm sounds around the globe for emergency relief, one of the world's poorest countries is being called to account for spending as much as a half-billion dollars fighting its neighbor while much of its own population slipped ever closer to mass starvation."
Prophets of doom were wrong, Serb official boasts. Serbia's ruling Socialist Party has brought the country through the winter without food shortages or major power cuts despite NATO's air war last year. Milosevic's opponents predicted that a difficult winter would speed his downfall by stirring popular discontent. Opponents also predicted hyperinflation as the government printed money to pay pensions and the army and to fund reconstruction. But by keeping the economy under the tight, centralised control it had imposed during the air strikes and calling in favours from businessmen who had made fortunes in previous years, the government managed to avert a collapse.
IOC warns Athens 2004 Olynpic Games could be in `danger'. Tthe president of the International Olympic Committee warned Athenians to get their act together - or else. He said the Athens Games were in the worst organizational crisis faced by an Olympic city in his 20 years as president of the International Olympic Committee. He would not rule out moving the games. There have been published reports suggesting that the IOC could move the games to Seoul, the South Korean capital, which staged the 1988 Olympics.
The United Kingdom's Foreign Office has warned that Zimbabwe is "on the brink" as the crisis in the southern African country escalated with the killings of a white farmer and two opposition politicians.
Vote for your choice to play Elian in the upcoming TV mini-series. Elian was found floating off the Florida coast after the boat carrying his mother and other Cuban refugees to America capsized. CBS has put the proposed four-hour Elian film on a "fast track".
The magazine 'The Nation,' April 17 - The cover story predicts that American politics will undergo "progressive realignment." There is too much peace and prosperity to stimulate political upheaval in the short term, but the presidential primary season clearly demonstrated "a pervasive if still diffuse demand for major reforms that the existing order cannot and will not deliver."
The leader of Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrilla group said on Sunday peace would come to the Middle East only after Israel disappeared.
MARCH 2000:
Don't Let War Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy - China: Beijing, Taipei and the U.S. need to reaffirm that mutually agreeable terms for reunification are conceivable.
What are the chances that we will be enslaved by a master race of robots? Is technology driving us towards world governance?
Sober truths about Social Security -Social Security's trustees predict low economic growth, not because American workers will suddenly become unproductive - in fact, the trustees actually predict that future wages will grow at twice the 1975-1995 rate - but because low birth rates and retiring Baby Boomers will slow the growth of the labor force. Not enough workers equals not enough economic growth.
Pollsters have poor record so far in primaries - " Not one in the public arena accurately predicted Arizona Sen. John McCain's 19-point win over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Most thought Bush would win or said the race was too close to call. Nearly every polling operation, except Gallup, failed to predict Bush's big victory last Saturday in South Carolina, where he won by 11 points."
FEBRUARY 2000:
China has threatened to invade Taiwan if it does not seriously negotiate its reunification with the mainland. China has already promised to invade if the island formally declares independence, but it's vaguely worded threat to invade after a prolonged diplomatic stalemate represents a new condition for peace. The Post says that China also "suggested" that continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan would merit war. China's statement comes a month before Taiwan's presidential election. The Post does not mention what may be the most immediate effect of China's saber rattling: increased congressional opposition to the Clinton administration's attempt to let China into the World Trade Organization.
According to the main headline in the Daily Telegraph of London, Northern Ireland is now "looking into the abyss." It said the peace process is "on the verge of unravelling" as the British and Irish prime ministers, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, failed to find a way out of the impasse caused by Britain's suspension of the parliament in Belfast and the withdrawal of the Irish Republican Army from talks on giving up its weapons.
Japan's ballooning public debt, made worse by wasteful public works spending, is a time bomb that could wreck the world economy. "We are looking at a danger signal blinking near and bright," said Akio Ogawa, a lecturer in the Graduate School of Public Policy at Tokyo's Chuo University.
The missile threat to the United States from countries other than Russia or China is "steadily emerging," CIA Director George Tenet said in a draft of testimony to be delivered to Congress. "Over the next 15 years ... our cities will face ballistic missile threats from a wider variety of actors -- North Korea, probably Iran, and possibly Iraq," he said.
The primary is history - The big question now is, can John McCain and Bill Bradley build on their strong showings in New Hampshire to overtake the front runners? Thoughts, analysis and predictions from US newspapers.
21st century will belong to Asia, Indian official says
JANUARY 2000:
Miami Sees the Little Boy, Elian, As a Miracle and a Messiah.Unlike the other two survivors of the accident that killed Elian's mother and nine others, Cubans say the boy had no scratches on his legs, no sunburn, and he was not especially dehydrated after clinging to an inner tube for two days. ''I've seen 450 cases of these rafters, and I've never seen one like this,'' Mr. Basulto said. ''Two days with his feet dangling in the water and no fish bites? No scratches? Nothing? There's no other explanation: This was an act of God.'' Like many in Miami's tight Cuban community, Mr. Basulto has begun to refer to Elian by another name: El Milagro - The Miracle. Donato Dalrymple, the man who found Elian, says, ''If you met Elian you would realize he has a vivid understanding of everything that's happened. He was looking directly at me and he said, 'There's the man that pulled me out of the water when there were a lot of dolphins around me.' Every doll they give him, he names it 'dolphin.' He remembers when his mother went under, and when an angel appeared to him at nighttime.''
"Among the things there's no shortage of in this election year are predictions of huge surpluses in the federal budget. There's a surplus of surplus predictions, so to speak. Which means there's also a surplus of ideas of how to spend the predicted surplus... Of course, making credible predictions about the economy and federal budget over a decade is impossible. In 1990, nobody predicted anything for the next 10 years but larger and larger deficits. "
"The opening paces of the presidential primaries begin this month and carry into early February. Just what happens could be decisive in determining the outcome this summer, when both major parties pick their tickets. At the very least, this is where anyone looking for drama and competition prior to the general election is going to find it. On the Republican side, the two front-runners, Texas Gov. George Bush, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, find themselves running neck and neck in the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 1, while long-shot GOP candidates will lure away voters from each. "
A Christian aid group warned Saturday that escalating massacres in a remote region of eastern Congo could swell into a humanitarian catastrophe. Up to 5,000 people have been killed since the Lendu tribe erected roadblocks near the eastern Congolese town of Bunia in June and began attacking members of the Wahema tribe, said David McAllister, regional representative for Christian Blind Mission.
China is the 21st century's sleeping giant. Virtually all of Asia is within its political sphere of influence. While still a second-rate conventional military force, China is one of a small group of nations with a nuclear arsenal capable of turning a large chunk of this globe into a radioactive wasteland. With more than a billion people, China has the potential to become Asia's economic engine in the new millennium. What it lacks in technology it will purchase from America and its allies. Capitalism can't forgo such a large marketplace.
DECEMBER 1999:
U.S. intelligence officials say they have received unverified warnings that teams of terrorists are planning to enter the United States and assemble bombs in three major cities New York, Washington, D.C., and Seattle around the start of the new year. There is a heightened risk that there may be individuals planning attacks abroad and within the United States during the holiday season, now through mid-January.
Was Captured Terrorist Planning to Blow Up Seattle's Space Needle On New Year's Eve? Ahmed Ressam, who was arrested at a border checkpoint last week, has been linked to Said Atmani, believed to be the head of a Montreal crime ring that has funded terrorist groups. Ressam was charged Friday with bringing nitroglycerin into the United States, having false ID and making false statements to U.S. Customs officials. At a hotel where Ressam stayed in November, a maid said Ressam and another man spent hours locked in a back room where she saw many plastic containers. They rarely allowed the room to be cleaned, she said, but that it smelled like eggs an odor similar to that emitted by sulphur, a common bomb-making component. A reservation for the night of Dec. 14 was made under the name of Benni Noris the name on Ressam's false passport at a motor inn in Seattle. The motel was just blocks from the city's landmark Space Needle, planned site for a huge New Year's celebration. At least 50 known terrorist groups are present in Canada because they face fewer legal restrictions than in the United States.
The United States on December 11th issued a worldwide caution to its citizens travelling abroad through the start of the New Year and Ramadan, citing "credible information that terrorists are planning attacks" against them.
The Nation, Dec. 20 - The cover story reveals that Ralph Nader is preparing for a White House run. Nader will actively campaign on the Green Party ticket to secure public funding for lower-level party candidates and publicize his view that corporations excessively dominate civil society.
NOVEMBER 1999:
November 24, 1999 - British warned to expect terrorism over holidays. Police issued a terrorist alert Tuesday, saying they fear dissident factions opposed to the Northern Ireland peace agreement plan a bombing campaign over the holiday season. Reports said the threat was at its highest since an Irish Republican Army splinter group bombed the Northern Ireland city of Omagh in August 1998, killing 29 people. ``There is a genuine and credible concern about the increased threat of violence not only in Ireland but also on the British mainland from breakaway renegade groups who are opposed to the Irish peace process,'' Scotland Yard said.
Hollywood superstar Will Smith, star of the box office hits "Independence Day" and "Men In Black", wants to be the first black president of the United States -- and says he will give it a try in 10 years' time. In the meantime, Smith is to get a feel for the job by spending Millennium Eve night with the Clintons at the White House. "I've always thought I'd like to become America's first black president," the actor and rap singer told Friday's edition of the Sun tabloid. "I've got a lot of other things I've got to do first -- but I think I'll get round to it in about 10 years' time."
AL GORE will be the winner of the 2000 presidential election. "Four forces drive that bold prediction:
-- A strong economy, which always benefits the party holding the White House.
-- The demonstrated ability of Vice President Gore to exploit core Democratic issues such as Social Security, health and education.
-- The prominence of those same issues in voters' minds.
-- The perception that Gore is a serious public servant and that his rival -- in all likelihood Texas Gov. George W. Bush -- is not.
The power of the economy to predict elections is manifest. Ever since the collection of solid national economic data began in earnest, presidential elections have followed a stark and unmistakable pattern: People vote their pocketbooks. If the economy is growing, voters reward the incumbent party. If the economy is flat or declining, they reward the challenger. By that historic standard, Democrat Gore should carry the day. "
China is currently undergoing the most profound process of modernization that any society has ever seen,'' according to Marcus Noland, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, a non-partisan Washington-based group that studies world trade. ``They are telescoping a process that took hundreds of years in Europe, a hundred years in the United States, and 50 years in Japan, into a matter of decades.'' If the history of China's trade with the West has anything to teach, experts say, it is that Beijing will drag its feet on aspects of the new deal that cause China pain. New and expanding players in Chinese markets are likely to get tangled in what foreign businesses here already encounter endlessly: stifling government red tape, corruption, and a capricious legal system. Even optimists predict more foreign trade in China will cause short-term surges in unemployment and mass migrations from the countryside to overcrowded cities.
There have been dramatic developments in the Northern Ireland peace process as Sinn Fein issued a statement declaring its absolute rejection of violence. It also said it was confident there would be an agreement on arms decommissioning.
PRIOR POLITICAL PREDICTIONS
