Long-Term Global Climate Predictions

Industrial greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to warming climates in the past 50 years. Natural variability in climate (variables such as volcanic activity and changes in the sun) were responsible for most climate changes up until about 50 years ago, then human influence became more important.
NASA Climate News & Research NASA Ozone Page
"Dig the well before you are thirsty." - Chinese proverb


- Predictions page
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CURRENT ARTICLES (2005)ARE NOW FOUND ON THIS PAGE.

OCTOBER 2001:

Global warming alert issued for U.S. Gulf states - Conflicts over fresh water are in the future for the five U.S. states that border the Gulf of Mexico, a new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists predicts.

To proponents of the greenhouse effect theory, the last decade unleashed a dazzlingly deadly display of extreme weather events - which is just what happens when you turn the heat up on Mother Nature. Reporter Bob Reiss believes it will only get worse. His new book, "The Coming Storm: Extreme Weather and Our Terrifying Future," examines the scientific and political conflict that's been raging since signs of the greenhouse effect appeared in the late 1980s. So far, over the last 10 years, we've had 10 of the hottest years on record.

Scientists determine colder weather leads to better economies - Two economists have come up with a startling and provocative explanation for why countries in colder climates tend to enjoy so much more economic prosperity than countries in tropical areas. Cold weather kills off many disease-carrying germs and insects, thus giving countries in higher latitudes a better chance of keeping deadly killers like yellow fever and malaria under control. That frees up more resources for other purposes, like cultivating crops. And the crops do better because frost enriches the organic material in topsoil.

A common Great Plains prairie plant, the partridge pea (Chamaecrista fasciculata), could face severe reduction in numbers if climate conditions in the Midwest change to the extremes predicted for the next 25 to 35 years. If the partridge pea is threatened by changing conditions, other common native species may be threatened as well.

Toxic chemicals absorbed over decades by the Great Lakes are now being exhaled from the waters years after the source of the pollution was cut, according to a study by an environmental group.

Portions of the Atlantic shelf are becoming unstable - this may cause underwater landslides, which in turn could create tsunamis, or tidal waves.


SEPTEMBER 2001:

After three years of calamities including drought, an earthquake, a killer blizzard, a plague of locusts that ate the grasslands clean and a flurry of blinding dust storms, the sheep and cattle herders of Inner Mongolia are bewildered, and they look to the coming winter with dread. Local officials worry that their region is an early victim of global warming, brought on by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gasses.

Earth's northern hemisphere is a greener place than it was 20 years ago, with denser vegetation and a longer growing season in some places, scientists reported. In the area above 40 degrees north latitude - which includes New York City, Madrid, Ankara and Beijing - satellite data show plants have been growing more vigorously since 1981.

Researchers in Canada are concerned that global climate change is linked to a possible increase in the number of diseases.

A menacing peak in cyclical solar activity officially has passed, a NASA scientist says, but its impact on Earth's weather is far from over. In fact, the outlook is sunny in many ways. The outcomes are predicted to include fewer clouds over the United States in coming years and a southward shift in storm tracks. Other effects should include a deflation of the planet's atmosphere, which will make it easier for mission managers to keep the International Space Station in its proper orbit.


AUGUST 2001:

A massive earthquake of 8 or more magnitude will probably occur along the edge of the Himalayan mountains in the near future, putting more than 50 million people at risk and threatening large cities in India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan, researchers say.

The path known as Hurricane Alley - the typical route for tropical storms that form in the Atlantic every summer and fall and sweep across the Caribbean - is likely to blow big-time for the next 10 to 40 years. The notorious 1998 Hurricane Mitch, which devastated the economies of Nicaragua and Honduras and left 10,000 dead, "fits the pattern" of the coming decades.

"A broad grouping of scientists has proposed a concerted effort by researchers and policymakers to develop the ability to forecast ecological change in areas ranging from small plots to the entire globe. The scientists say advances in science and technology could enable forecasts guiding policy to forewarn of invasions of exotic species and disease epidemics; to protect the ecology of lakes, rivers and estuaries; and to predict the ecological impacts of global warming."

Ten years after Mount Pinatubo rained fire and ash in a deadly eruption, the northern Philippine volcano threatens to unleash mass floods as its crater fills with rain. Philippine volcano experts say they are studying the danger to more than 40,000 farmers and villagers living beneath Pinatubo. The British-based aid agency Oxfam says the government may be underestimating the risks and urged immediate measures to prevent damage.


JULY 2001:

The Arctic polar ice cap is shrinking yearly by an area the size of the Netherlands. The massive flow of melted ice into the Atlantic could shut down the Gulf Stream in this century, so severely affecting the weather, it could make the land from London to Stockholm unfit for habitation.

Climate Change Signs Building - "'The Coming Global Superstorm' book is beginning to look like it was written by a couple of prophets. But it wasn't magic, just good research. Unfortunately, the one thing that the authors did wrong was that they UNDERESTIMATED the speed of change. Now Dr. Robert Watson of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is saying that the earth's temperature is rising twice as fast as thought ten years ago. In another story, scientists are saying that methane is building up in the atmosphere for the same reason it did 14,000 years ago, in an event that the authors, Whitley and, believe resulted in the last superstorm. At the same time, Nature Magazine has published a paper saying that ocean currents are slowing down, and other scientists have announced that climate change is likely to be sudden.
What does all of this mean to us? We can expect some very dramatic warming over the next few years. There will be periods in tropical areas where temperatures go above levels at which human life can be sustained for very long. It is likely that tropical India or the Arabian desert will see temperatures above 130F. before too much longer. At the same time, very violent storms will continue to strike Europe and North America, growing slowly more violent with time. Events such as Tropical Storm Allison, which unexpectedly dumped record rainfalls and caused 43 deaths in the US, will become more commonplace.
What should we watch for? Two danger signals: a sudden spike in temperatures in the arctic and the failure of the Gulf Stream. We watch a buoy in the North Atlantic that is inside the Gulf Stream. Should the water temeperature at that buoy drop overnight, we would consider an alert. If this happened at a time when Arctic temperatures were reaching records, it would probably mean that a serious climate event was under way.
How likely is it to happen tomorrow? We are in uncharted climatic waters, and there is urgent need for more research. Unfortunately, the administration is making dramatic cutbacks in climate research funding, so this research will not happen. Right now, North Atlantic water temperatures are consistently higher than normal, and the Gulf Stream is exhibiting minor irregularities. So we watch and wait...and hope, always, for the best.
Keep up with the Quickwatch every week. It's updated each Friday, but we watch the indicators daily. Go to Unknowncountry.com and click on Quickwatch in the left-hand column."

The odds are dead even that the world's average temperature will increase at least 5 degrees by the end of the century, enough to trigger flooding, famine and drought across much of the globe, according to a new study.

"The debate rages on, and so does the climate. Indications that sudden climate change is just around the corner are piling up...A number of stories that have poured in over just the past few weeks, indicating that ocean currents are weakening, methane is building up in the atmosphere, and arctic temperatures are rising." Right now, the entire news section of http://www.unknowncountry.com is devoted to climate change stories--some fascinating and unusual ones, not the run-of-the-mill stuff that does little but reinforce a feeling of helplesness. And Anne Strieber's unique view of the whole controversy can be found at: http://www.unknowncountry.com/diary/

ALASKA - Retreating sea ice threatens existence of Alaskan town - 3 houses already lost to rising waters and the entire village of 600 residents could disappear into the sea within the next few decades.


JUNE 2001:

The world's poor face a mounting threat from flood and famine, their vulnerability increased by climate change and globalization.

What is happening to Earth's capacity to support the human species and civilization? And, more importantly, what can we do about it? These are two critical questions that journalist Bill Moyers explores in his upcoming report, EARTH ON EDGE, which premieres on PBS on June 19. Moyers' latest project explores the impact of the human species on earth.

CHINA'S POLLUTION BAD AND GETTING WORSE - The world's most populous country is losing its battle against growing environmental problems.


MAY 2001:

RISING SEA-LEVEL - will swallow some coastlines, but not all. Worldwide, the oceans are currently rising one-tenth of an inch each year. In the next 50 years, scientists warn, the seas will rise a foot. In 60 years, coastal erosion in the United States could swallow one out of every four homes built within 500 feet of shoreline.

Studies Show a Little Warming Can Bring Down Societies - It appears that drought has repeatedly played a major role in the collapse of societies that had, for a while at least, been at the apex of human civilization. A growing body of scientific evidence now suggests that changes in the weather played a bigger role than had been thought.

Emperor penguins are considered the hardiest among Antarctic penguins. But a new study suggests that warmer weather can kill them by depleting their food supply. Past warming trends show clear damage to penguin numbers. If global anomalies become more common, which is a possible scenario in the event of global warming, then emperor penguins would decline again.

The U.S. Department of Energy has determined that a controversial carbon dioxide experiment in Hawaii waters will not have a significant environmental impact. The finding gives a green light to tests linked to learning whether global warming from carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be slowed by pumping the gas into the ocean.

A pair of researchers in the Oregon State University Department of Zoology are linking climate changes to amphibian decline.


APRIL 2001:

NASA Demonstrates How Earth's Global Heat Engine Drives Plant Growth . Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have assembled the first long-term global data set that demonstrates the connection between changing patterns of sea surface temperature and patterns of plant growth across the Earth's landscapes.

The protective ozone layer over the North Pole appears to have stabilized after years of thinning, but the gain may be temporary, U.N. weather experts said. Scientists from the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said the recovery may be attributed to a warmer than usual winter and the current peak in the 11-year cycle of the sun, and not to global cuts in the use of harmful chemicals.

Global warming is thawing permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere and making large areas vulnerable to sinking. The disappearance of permafrost, soil that has been below freezing point for long periods, has accelerated in recent decades and is threatening infrastructure in northern regions, including the Bilibino nuclear power stations in the Russian far east , along with pipeline corridors in parts of northwestern North America.

Global warming could lead to increased food production in rich temperate states and reduced output in poor tropical countries. Climate change could lead to increased global insecurity and human population movements. A United nations report predicts a migration of crops, animals and ecosystems, and a loss of biodiversity.


MARCH 2001 -

U.S. Energy Department statisticians predict that levels of the so-called greenhouse gas will grow worldwide nearly 35% by 2010. Many scientists believe that the changes they see in the world's ice are the first symptoms of global warming, with potentially catastrophic consequences."At every end of the Earth, the ice is slowly stirring. Major ice formations in Antarctica and the Arctic are thinning or breaking up. In the alpine highlands of Europe and the tropical ranges of South America and Africa, mountain glaciers are in full retreat. From the snows of Kilimanjaro in Tanzania to the Quelccaya icecap of the Andes Mountains in Peru, scientists see a world of ice in motion--shrinking, flexing, creeping unpredictably, almost like a living thing...researchers are straining to understand the behavior of the ice sheets that cover one-tenth of the world and contain three-quarters of the world's fresh water."

A new study of coral reefs indicates that, "for the first time in recent memory, reef recovery rather than continued decline seems at least possible." Over the past two decades, coral reefs in the Caribbean have been dying, presumably because of a variety of factors including overfishing and higher water temperatures. Now, however, there may be some good news: Reefs off the coast of Jamaica appear to be recovering. The number of sea urchins has increased and the amount of algae has dropped, indicating that the reefs are recovering. "The coral reefs of Jamaica have been at the forefront of reports of ecosystem collapse, and predictions of the future of most reefs remain gloomy. Although our results should not be construed to mean that reef recovery is inevitable throughout the western Atlantic, this study does provide good news about the recovery of highly degraded Caribbean coral reefs," the researchers reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The ice on Hudson Bay could be gone before the century is half over, say scientists touring the area around Canada's inland sea. Hunters are telling the researchers that springs in the North are warmer and heading out on the ice with snowmobiles is getting more dangerous. They're also noticing changes in animals. The United Nations predicted recently that the world would warm up one degree Celsius per decade, and the North is expected to warm faster than that.

Global warming could give the Swiss Alps a Mediterranean climate within decades and boost the number of severe storms.

A new study suggests that the tropical Pacific Ocean may be able to open a "vent" in its heat-trapping cirrus cloud cover and release enough energy into space to diminish the projected climate warming caused by a buildup of greenhouse gases.


FEBRUARY 2001 -

UNEVEN FLOODING LIKELY AS ICE CAPS MELT - Researchers have long assumed when ice caps melted, the resulting water would slip into the oceans evenly, like adding more water to the bath. Instead, rates of sea level change over the last century have varied widely from place to place.

As temperature increases in the world's oceans, coastal storm surges will become an increasing threat to life and property.

Poor countries and above all small island states, will be hardest hit by global warming, while melting ice caps and other changes in polar regions likely will continue for centuries, a new U.N. report says. Even though the United States as a whole is less vulnerable, areas such as Florida are at great risk from rising sea levels. Effects of global warming have arrived and are likely to get far worse than previously expected, killing millions of people and displacing tens of millions more in the next century, scientists say.

JANUARY 2001:

U.N. scientists said that global warming was melting the Arctic's permafrost, causing it to release greenhouse gases that could in turn raise temperatures even higher.

The earth's atmosphere is warming faster than expected and evidence is mounting that human activity is responsible, the United Nations Environment Programme said on Monday. The U.N."s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now projects the earth"s average surface temperature will rise 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100, higher than its 1995 estimate of a one to 3.5 degree rise. "The decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the last century and the warming in this century is warmer than anything in the last 1,000 years in the Northern Hemisphere."

The weather phenomenon known as El Nino, present for the past 130,000 years, was most intense during the 20th century, a study of ancient coral reefs has revealed.

Wary of Winter Flooding, Meteorologists Are Honing Ways to Predict Rain.

A chunk of ice the size of Connecticut that had hovered along the coast of Antarctica for hundreds of years has disintegrated in less than a decade. A NASA computer and historical records to conclude that many other areas of Antarctica could face a similar future. It is a matter of great concern because massive melting of the glaciers at the bottom of the world could cause the seas to rise globally, inundating low-lying areas. It would take decades, if not centuries, to melt Antarctica's glaciers. But the research suggests that the beginning of the process could come sooner than most scientists had thought.

The World Food Program says that in the next two decades, nearly half of the world's population will live in countries with water shortages. In 1998, the food program responded to 102 drought-related emergencies - more than 50 percent more than the number of emergencies caused by floods. Droughts last year spread to more than 20 countries and affected 100 million people.

For Italy's disaster planners, Vesuvius Volcano is an apocalypse waiting to happen. Vesuvius has been quiet - too quiet, some fear - for the last 56 years. This is the volcano that buried Pompeii in AD 79 - scientists agree that it will erupt again.. When, with how much force and with how much warning are the subjects of bitter dispute.

Canadian climatologists say that temperatures across the country were above normal in 2000 for the eighth consecutive year. Last year was the seventh warmest recorded in the 53 years that Environment Canada has been keeping national temperature records, although it was not as warm as 1999 or 1998.

DECEMBER 2000:

The world was hit by a record number of natural disasters in 2000 and global warming and a rising population are likely to make future years even worse. The world's largest reinsurer said the number of natural disasters rose by more than 100 to 850 in 2000. The number of deaths was much lower than in 1999 because less populated areas were affected.

Despite some recent successes in predicting volcanic eruptions, scientists say they are still at least a decade away from creating a global early warning network.

Scientists say they are stepping up research into the global threat posed by massive volcanic eruptions - devastating and inevitable explosions of magma, ash and gas that promise to have severe and lasting impact on the world's climate. The probability of very large eruptions is probably significantly higher than that of meteor impact.

The largest natural lake in northern China appears doomed to dry out early next year, parched by lack of rainfall and reckless use of water by factories and farmers. The threat to the Baiyangdian Lake in Hebei province has highlighted a water crisis in China so severe it threatens the country's economic development and social stability.

Alaska's Columbia Glacier, which moves into the sea at a rate of up to 110 feet a day, is ready to disintegrate, it is breaking into icebergs. The glacier either will retreat rapidly up the fjord or thin rapidly and essentially disintegrate in an abrupt event.

The hole in the ozone layer will close up in 50 years if decreases in the emissions of the gases believed to be responsible for creating the deterioration are coupled by a reduction in the releases of "greenhouse gases", scientists agreed at a recent international conference.

NOVEMBER 2000:

Climate changes could devastate the Netherlands.

Australia faces a hot and stormy future as a result of climate change driven by global warming, according to scientists. Much of the Great Barrier Reef could be destroyed in as little as 40 years, as rising sea temperatures cause coral to "bleach" and die.

The native people of the Canadian Arctic are seeing something unknown in their oral history - thunder and lightning. Electric storms in the upper Arctic are among the evidence of climate change.

The ecosystem which sustains the livelihood of Arctic residents is literally melting away as temperatures rise and birds and animals not indigenous to the region arrive.

Not just forests, but deserts, too, will burn in the future, according to an experiment reported in Nature. "The invasion of exotic grasses like cheatgrass have already upset desert ecosystems in western U.S. regions like the Great Basin. The current experiment demonstrates how more native species will be pushed out and the face of the desert changed as levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide rise through the burning of fossil fuels. "

British government officials have begun to speak with a new plainness about the devastating effects of global warming, predicting that the freakish storms are harbingers of worse to come. So far this autumn, Britain - which was in drought two years ago - has endured the wettest autumn since records began 273 years ago.

Solutions to the injurious consequences of global warming gas emissions are at hand, say representatives of the world s largest environmental nongovernmental organizations, but industrialized nations are still ducking through loopholes.

Britons are becoming more aware of the risks and consequences of global
warming following the country's most severe flooding for 50 years.

Southern and eastern Europeans are likely to suffer from climate changes predicted over the next century, while their northern neighbors are expected to reap advantages from the shifts brought by global warming, scientists said.

New Research Links the Changing Salmon Populations to Climate . In warmer years, the runs tended to be much stronger, and in cooler years, there were far fewer salmon returning to spawn. The findings indicate that climate variability plays a critical role in salmon abundance. It has been that way for at least 300 years, and probably much longer.

OCTOBER 2000:

Meteorologists and environmental pressure groups warned that extreme weather will become increasingly common as a result of global warming.

Shrinking ozone threatening lands in the Southern Hemisphere - With sunburns in as little as seven minutes, Chileans are already feeling the effects of a thinning ozone layer. As the ozone layer shrinks, such occurrences will become more frequent in other, more populous areas, damaging local economies and public health. If this warming continues, down under nations will be the first to face devastating economic effects. The rest of the world will follow.

"Creeping more slowly than a human fingernail grows, Earth's massive continents are on the move. The earth is going to be a very different place 250 million years from now. Africa is going to smash into Europe as Australia migrates north to merge with Asia. Meanwhile the Atlantic Ocean will probably widen for a spell before it reverses course and later disappears."

Climate Change Sparks Fears from the U.N. - "The fact you have floods in the south of Asia and drought to the north suggests some sort of systemic climate shift."

Just as world leaders are preparing to try to come to grips with global warming, a small but persistent group of scientists has revived an unsettling thought: What if much, or even most, of the warming seen so far -- about 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century -- was not the result of civilization's cumulative spew of ``greenhouse gases''? What if, instead, it was caused by electromagnetic changes in the sun, a thermonuclear behemoth 93 million miles beyond human control?

Why Is the Ross Ice Shelf Shedding So Many Icebergs? Since March, the Ross Ice Shelf has shed five massive icebergs. Is global warming to blame?

Don't count on clouds to come to the rescue if the Earth's current
climate-warming trend continues. Some climate theories predict that
a warmer atmosphere would evaporate more water, and this additional water
vapor would form thicker clouds. However, research found that when air
temperatures were higher, clouds were thinner and thus LESS
capable of reflecting sunlight.


SEPTEMBER 2000:

Global warming may dim future fall foliage colors.

Insect-borne viruses, heart disease, lung ailments and even frostbite will likely emerge as larger public health problems in U.S. northern states because of hotter winters and cooler summers.

The Global Warming Debate Is Over. It's Real, Inexorable, and Headed Our Way.

A rapid melting of mountain ice fields is under way on three continents.

Welcome to the Greenhouse Century

Predictions that global warming could spread malaria to regions otherwise free of the disease are unjustified, scientists say. Computer models show that global warming will mean drier conditions in northern latitudes, not the steamy, humid conditions needed for malaria-spreading mosquitoes to thrive.

Antarctic Ozone Layer Thinning Dramatically: September 1, 2000 — The ozone layer above Antarctica is being depleted at an accelerated rate. The hole has been closely monitored by satellites and ground-based instruments after being discovered in the 1970s. Taysir al-Ghanem, a spokesman for WMO, said, "This is an alarming rate of decrease. It is double the amount we had observed two weeks ago, and this could lead to a much greater ozone hole."


AUGUST 2000:
"The number of people living in countries facing severe water shortages will increase more than four-fold over the next 25 years. It is projected that by 2025, between 2.4 billion and 3.2 billion people will face severe or chronic water shortages compared with the 505 million people affected today. Researchers said water shortages would be particularly acute in the Middle East and in much of Africa.

Svante August Arrhenius – the Swedish prophet of global warming – ran through tens of thousands of hand calculations in the late-19th century to make the first scientific forecast of carbon-dioxide-driven climate change. "His final answer, published in 1906, predicted that doubling the air's CO2 content "would raise the temperature of the Earth's surface by 4 degrees C." The Nobel laureate also remarked that industrial development could boost the air's CO2 content "to a noticeable degree in the course of a few centuries." That's squarely within the 21st-century forecast of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on supercomputer climate simulations and the judgement of hundreds of scientists...Arrhenius was more interested in how natural CO2 variations affected the ice ages than in humanity's assault on climate. But given the importance global warming has assumed in human affairs, his work must rank as one of the seminal prophesies of the past millennium."

Britain faces the threat of becoming a tropical island with London a mangrove swamp unless urgent efforts are made to fight global warming, according to British researchers.

Global warming may worsen hay fever. A scientific study shows ragweed makes nearly twice as much pollen now as it did 100 years ago and will likely double its production in the next 100 years.

New evidence of global warming? "On a recent expedition from Norway to the North Pole, Paleontologist Malcolm McKenna, along with a group of scientists and tourists, found about a mile of open water right on the earth's crown." Six years ago, the ice in this area was 6 to 9 feet thick.

Ecologists say dry conditions and lightening have started many of the fires now raging in the West. But human development is making them burn bigger and longer.

"With the peak of hurricane season almost here, scientists warn this could be another busy year for the giant storms. But the warnings don't stop there. Increased hurricane activity may threaten the U.S. for another 20 or 30 years."

Arctic temperatures in the late 20th century, which were the warmest in four centuries, have been accompanied by a variety of other environmental changes.

"The Pacific Ocean, the largest and deepest of the world's oceans, suffers periodic mood swings that have a dramatic impact on our weather. These mood swings include a climate phenomenon known as Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. It's an El Nino- like shift in the ocean's temperature that scientists once thought cycled every 15 to 20 years. However, there's new NASA research that now shows there may be a second, much longer, PDO cycle that lasts about 70 years.

JULY 2000:

Between 1948 and 1999, heat stress days rose steadily in nearly every region of the country - and its only going to get worse.

Global warming and the global disasters in the making.

Protracted cooling cycle could camouflage the effects of global warming - The human contribution to global warming is clearly present and must be controlled, say researchers at the University of Illinois. But there is also another, as-yet-unexplained, cyclic contribution that has important implications for monitoring future climate change. "Appearances can indeed be deceiving," said Michael Schlesinger, a UI atmospheric scientist. "If global warming doesn't persist year after year, we shouldn't be fooled into thinking that human effects are no longer of concern. There is something else at work here that we don't yet fully comprehend."

Scientists are working to understand why the lower atmosphere isn't heating up as fast as some global warming models predict.

Computer models indicate that many diseases will surge as the earth's atmosphere heats up. Signs of the predicted troubles have begun to appear.

Global warming caused frightening weather in southern Europe last week. "This is the kind of terrible weather that scientists have long predicted would accompany the warming of the planet. That warming is not only well under way, it is accelerating."

China faces parched future as pollution, overuse kill rivers. "China is running out of water, and much of the remaining supply is so polluted by human and industrial waste it is unfit for consumption or even irrigation...China's worsening water shortage has global implications: The rapid and irreversible fall of the country's water tables could soon mean rising food prices for the entire world.

JUNE 2000:

Major havoc ahead - Global warming will hammer northern transport networks. Road traffic will regularly grind to a halt and train services will increasingly be disrupted as a result of global warming.

About one in four American beach homes is in danger of being swept away, according to a new study by the U.S. government. The Federal Emergency Management Agency study released today predicts that nearly 90,000 waterfront homes — on the ocean and the Great Lakes — will be lost to erosion over the next 60 years. Erosion is a natural process, but the pace has quickened recently, primarily due to rising sea levels caused by global warming. There is little that can be done to stop it. Contributing to the problem is the period of increased hurricane activity that climatologists predict is upon the country. The additional storms can be expected to increase the coastal erosion threat.

New Orleans is already, on average, eight feet below sea level. As the land sinks and the oceans rise over the next century, it may prove impossible to save the city. It could be lost beneath the waves within 100 years.

MAY 2000:
Natural disasters are becoming more severe and more frequent, says Federal Emergency Management Agency Director James Lee Witt. "Tornado activity, we see now, normally starts in the spring of the year, starting in January. Hurricane seasons seem like they're much more intense. "We will see from what the scientists tell us, some extremely devastating events in the 21st century."

Britain's Prince Charles today warned that the world faces environmental disaster unless it starts accepting that tampering with nature is an affront to God.

The world's coral reefs made a partial recovery last year after a dismal 1998 but remain threatened by overfishing and climate changes, scientists say.

A new global model developed in Britain shows that if warming continues apace, whole swathes of the Amazon will die off by the end of the century.

APRIL 2000:
More than 20,000 people worldwide already have volunteered to contribute their personal computers' off-hours power to a little-known scientific experiment that will attempt to forecast the climate of the 21st century.

Effects of global warming are clear in Canada Arctic
- People are already observing species which don't belong here such as grizzly bears and wolverines, insects and birds, which have been moving north. More than 60 percent of the Arctic ozone layer some 11 miles above the Earth had vanished over the winter due to record cold and continued pollution -- one of the most substantial ozone losses at this altitude ever recorded.

"Our luck has run out, a leading hurricane scientist said Friday. We now face 10 to 20 years of increased hurricane activity, and a ``conveyor belt'' of warm ocean water will help propel major hurricanes into the coast, inflicting unprecedented damage. ``We think we have been in a new era for these storms since 1995,'' says atmospheric scientist William Gray. ``If the future is like the past, we would expect this up cycle to continue for 10, 15, maybe 20 years."

Geologists Predict Possible Tsunami at Lake Tahoe - Study suggests two underwater faults could each generate 7.1 quakes, swamping areas near shore with 30-foot waves.

Worried about the effects of global warming, scientists who have been watching the West Antarctic ice sheet for years for signs of melting now say the bigger threat comes from glaciers in Greenland. "If nothing is done to stabilize our climate and sea levels rise as much as 6 meters (20 feet), you'll flood the southern half of Florida, the southern half of Louisiana," said Kurt Cuffey. "A two-degree global warming doesn't sound like much, but you have to realize the consequences can be really quite disastrous." A United Nations-sponsored panel predicts that average global temperatures will rise two to six degrees in the next 100 years if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed.

The forest fire season in Canada has begun much earlier than usual this year, which experts say may be related to global warming.

Officially, the world is in a warming trend. Earth's temperature is up an average 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last century. But that's not the whole story.

MARCH 2000:

Earth's ice cover melting in more places and at a higher rate than at any time since record keeping began.

Genetically engineered rice that extracts as much as 30 per cent more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is said to offer a way of curbing global warming.

"Gradual warming of the Arctic caused by worldwide climate changes is threatening populations of birds in the polar region, according to a report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). The study that showed the rising temperatures will result in the northward advance of wooded areas that will eventually replace the tundra that hosts millions of birds and other unique species. The report cautioned that the first effects of Arctic warming could be felt as soon as 10 years and would be responsible for the extinction of several species. An additional four to five million geese and 7.5 million waders will be threatened in the next 70-100 years. "

The world's oceans have warmed significantly, even in deep waters, over the last 40 years, according to a new study. That could explain why temperatures on land have not risen as much as predicted by computer models of global warming.

A new website provides a background on climate change issues, identifies business opportunities and risks, helps a company develop an action plan to address issues and challenges, provides the outline for formulating a facility strategy, identifies a series of practical steps that can be taken by companies to reach the goals of their strategy and helps companies measure their successes.

The global wind-power industry had a record-breaking year in 1999, installing more wind-to-electricity generators than ever before. Germany added the most new capacity, followed by the U.S., Spain, and Denmark. Almost half the new wind power in the U.S. was built in 2 large projects in Minnesota and Iowa. Wind machines now supply 10% of Denmark's total electricity and it plans to increase that rate to 50% by 2030. The great bulk of the world's electricity is still generated from plants burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) or using nuclear fuel.

Predicting a "Water Doomsday"
- University of Georgia Professor Eugene Odum predicted water wars more than 20 years ago. The explosive growth in the South, he believed then, would eventually outpace the capacity of the rivers here. A chart he made in 1978 tracks the projected flow of Georgia's Chattahoochee River and the projected water needs of Atlanta. The river flow goes down, Atlanta's withdrawal goes up, and the two lines intersect in the year 2010, which Odum labelled "Water Doomsday." "Actually," he says, "I think we're already there."

More Drought Looming If Rains Do Not Return, USGS Warns.

North America does not absorb as much carbon dioxide as it emits, say Colorado State University researchers and others in current 'Science' .

Studies find that temperatures getting higher, raising global warming fears. New information indicates that the rate of global warming is accelerating and has already reached the rate of warming predicted for the 21st century.

RESEARCHERS AT at NOAA's National Climate Data Center (NCDC) have found evidence that the rate of global warming is accelerating and that in the past 25 years it achieved the rate of two degrees Celsius (four degrees Fahrenheit) per century. This rate had previously been predicted for the 21st Century. Karl and his colleagues conclude that there is only a one-in-20 chance that the string of record high temperatures in 1997-1998 was simply an unusual event, rather than a change point, the start of a new and faster ongoing trend. They urge that studies be conducted to enable society to minimize the risks of climate change and prepare for more, and perhaps even more rapid, changes to come.

FEBRUARY 2000:

U.S. News & World Report, Feb. 28 - The cover storyclaims that global climate change is already changing the environment. Antarctica's year-round temperature has jumped4 degrees since midcentury. Early winter temperatures are up about 9 degrees. As a result, glaciers are melting, seals are migrating, and Adιlie penguins are dying.

Scientists have found a way to force green algae — basically pond scum — to produce hydrogen out of water and sunlight. That could lead to an almost limitless supply of fuel.


Coroners won't write "death by global warming," but that could be an ultimate cause as millions succumb to disease in an increasingly unhealthy environment, a Cornell University ecologist warns.
Droughts likely in 21st Century - Dramatic research by two biologists and a scientist from the University of Ghent suggests that the world's supply of fresh water could plummet causing drought-induced famine, political unrest and large-scale migration worldwide.

Possible Climate Shift Could Worsen Water Deficit In The Southwestern U.S.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - Scientists believe the climate is shifting into a phase in which temperature and air-pressure changes in the Pacific Ocean could trigger a severe decade-long drought in the southwestern U.S.. PDO is a regular pattern of high and low pressure systems over the northern Pacific and it operates on a 20-to-30-year time period. The Southwest has been in a wetter phase since 1977, but it appears as though the oscillation began shifting to the drier phase in 1995.

Global Warming Effects Possible Global Warming Solutions



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