JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2007 DISASTERS

Wednesday, February 28, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -  “He that can heroically endure adversity will bear prosperity with equal greatness of soul; for the mind that cannot be dejected by the former is not likely to be transported with the later.” - Henry Fielding

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/27 -
5.3 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA REGION
5.0 VANUATU REGION

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - Two earthquakes have now been recorded in Trinidad and Tobago in the space of one week. The lastest earthquake struck on Tuesday morning around 9:26 and was felt in several parts of the country. It measured 4.3 magnitude. The previous earthquake was felt last Friday at approximately 10:48 am and again mainly in the north. Friday's earthquake measured 4.7. Seismologists describe the frequency of the earthquakes as UNUSUAL.

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - The volcano on the tiny Sicilian island of Stromboli erupted Tuesday, spewing lava into the sea and sparking a warning from authorities worried that it could cause a small tsunami. The island was almost entirely evacuated in early 2002 after a landslide caused a wave of water that in turn caused several minor injuries. Authorities with Italy's Civil Protection Department feared the latest eruption would cause another such landslide. People living on Stromboli have been told to stay 33 feet above sea level, and those on the nearby islands of Panarea and Lipari have been advised to do the same. Stromboli, 40 miles north of Sicily, is noted for frequent minor eruptions. This latest eruption is more violent than usual. Stromboli is not the only active volcano in southern Italy, with Mount Etna in Sicily coming to life every few months. (photo)

ANATAHAN ISLAND - A volcano on an uninhabited island in the Northern Mariana Islands has resumed activity. Residents with respiratory problems who live on the three most populated islands in the U-S commonwealth were advised to take extra care. The activity on Anatahan Island led to a sulfurous odor and visibility of six miles or less across the islands of Saipan, Tinian and Rota. In 2005, Anathan Volcano spewed ash as high as 50-thousand feet and deposited ash as far away as Palau and the Philippines.

WYOMING - Steamboat Geyser at Yellowstone National Park recently shot a plume of steam several hundred feet into the air, and geyser watchers wondered whether it was erupting for the first time since May 2005. There were other indications, too, including the draining of nearby Cistern Spring, often a telltale sign that Steamboat had ripped into one of its famous, and RARE, eruptions. But one thing was lacking: the thousands of gallons of water that flow out of Steamboat during those spectacular events. Without that significant flow of water, park officials can't classify the event as a major eruption. Instead, they're calling the Feb. 21 event, and a similar one Feb. 11, a "forceful minor eruption" that put out gobs of steam, raised temperatures, made a little noise and, among people who track Yellowstone's geysers, caused a bit of a stir. "I would kind of describe it as somewhat of a burp rather than a full eruption." Those kinds of minor eruptions aren't rare, but it's UNUSUAL to see seemingly contradictory signs of big doings at Steamboat. One of the biggest questions now is whether the activity at the geyser, located at Norris Geyser Basin, is a sign that it's preparing for a major eruption. Intervals between recorded eruptions range from four days to 50 years. The geyser fell quiet from 1991 to May 2000. Since then, seven major eruptions have been recorded, more than at any time since the early 1980s. "What's happening here? We don't know."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GAMEDE was 272 nmi WSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.

REUNION - Authorities in the Indian Ocean island of Reunion increased their weather alert to the maximum level of red on Tuesday as an offshore cyclone changed direction and headed for the coast. Cyclone Gamede continued its course towards the west coast and heavy rain poured down, flooding rivers and waterways. A woman was missing after being swept away by fast-flowing waters in a ravine in the island’s south and rescue services said chances of finding her alive were slim. Heavy storms over recent days caused rivers across the island to swell their banks and cut off roads in several areas, although the cyclone had appeared to be moving away from the island before changing direction overnight. Winds of up to 150 kph in coastal areas and 200 kph on hilltops are expected as cyclone Gamede approaches to some 200 kilometres (124 miles) of the coast.

ZIMBABWE - Strong winds brought by Cyclone Favio have left swathes of Zimbabwe's eastern Manicaland province without power. Up to 400 electricity poles were brought down by the cyclone. Favio swept into eastern Zimbabwe from Mozambique on Thursday evening bringing heavy rains which only ceased on Tuesday morning. An official from Zimbabwe's state-run electricity company warned that worse was to come.

AUSTRALIA - A cyclone forming off Queensland is threatening to cause some serious damage between the Whitsundays and Fraser Island. The cyclone is expected to form overnight before developing into a severe system. A low pressure system was today 650km northeast of Mackay and was expected to form into tropical cyclone Odette overnight. It was then expected to form into a severe cyclone - category three or above - by the weekend. "Track prediction is always difficult with cyclones but at this stage it's expected to head towards the Whitsunday coast then head down south to the Fraser coast eventually, so it could cause quite a few problems as it does so. It should be a big system too, compared to other events we've had recently." Strong winds, big swells and flooding of low-lying coastal areas is expected and residents are being told to prepare.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CALIFORNIA - Seven buildings in North Beach have been evacuated and red-tagged after heavy rain sent a portion of Telegraph Hill tumbling towards Broadway Street. Overnight rain that at times turned to hail loosened a section of hillside on the block between Kearny Street and Montgomery Street. At 3:17 a.m., it gave way with a loud rumbling. One of the buildings evacuated overnight is a 45-unit apartment building now perched near a large crater on the edge of Telegraph Hill. City geologists have begun a 24-hour assessment to determine whether the hillside has stabilized. Last year, a slide in a different area of Telegraph Hill sent rocks and debris hurtling onto Sansome Street. (photo)
More rain predicted in San Francisco threatens to further crumble the hillside that fell apart in the landslide Tuesday. As many as 120 residents were evacuated from a high-priced condominium at the top of the hill and several apartment buildings at the bottom. Some of the rocks that came down were the size of Volkswagen Beetles. Debris piled up to the second floor of some of the buildings at the bottom. After a similar landslide in 2000, residents on one part of the hill pooled their money to reinforce the slope. Fifty steel rods were drilled into the bedrock and wire mesh was laid over the hillside. The residents of the side of the hill that fell apart Tuesday opted out of the reinforcement plan for their section of the hill. (photo and video)

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - Adelaide has sweltered through its HOTTEST FEBRUARY FOR THE PAST 100 YEARS.

EUROPE - This winter in central Europe has been the WARMEST ON RECORD, as meteorologists around Europe compiled final data for the season. For meteorologists, winter comprises the three months ending at 0600 GMT on March 1. Average temperatures in Germany were 4.1 degrees higher than the long-term average since scientific recordings began in 1901. The unusually warm winter had been general to central Europe: a region including the Alpine nations, Poland and eastern France. Eastern Europe up to the Urals had a very warm December and January, but cold weather in February. Britain's Met Office added that the winter had been the second-warmest in Britain since detailed records began in 1914. This followed a trend of very warm temperatures over the last year, with the 12 months to February 2007 the warmest period in Central England since temperature readings began 348 years ago. The main reason for the warmth has been the remorseless arrival of weather systems from the southwest and west, shutting out polar chill. "Cold air-masses hadn't a chance of winning superiority in central Europe this winter." The current modest El Nino pattern, a southern hemisphere weather cycle which markedly alters rainfall, was quite separate from European trends. Research showed El Nino could slightly affect Europe, making the weather colder, but that had not happened this winter at all.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 -

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/26 -
5.0 EAST OF THE IZU ISLANDS
5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.3 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Black volcanic ash has covered a village 40 kilometers (25 miles) away from Klyuchevskoi volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's Far East. The volcano began erupting almost two weeks ago and more than 400 earthquakes have occurred near Klyuchevskoi over the past 24 hours. With the increase in the volcano's activity, experts forecast lava descents and mud flows, which could pose a danger to those in close vicinity to the volcano. Scientists said the eruption was not immediately dangerous for the peninsula's settlements, but ash, which fell in the village of Klyuchi and consisted of magma particles with a diameter of up to 2 millimeters (.078 inches), could contaminate land and water. Ash emissions and trails could also present a danger to aircraft. (photo)

INDONESIA - a plan to drop concrete balls into an oozing Indonesian "mud volcano" to slow its disastrous flow may be revised after they slid far deeper than expected. The balls slid 1km into the crater, roughly twice the depth anticipated, so many more than planned may be required to staunch the mudflow. The number of chains required may rise to 1000 from the initial estimate of 374. More balls were to be dropped into the 50m crater later today. The sea of mud has inundated hundreds of hectares of land and made 15,000 people homeless. It is also threatening to swamp a key railway, which is to be rerouted away from the danger zone. Experts are unsure how long the crater will spew mud if left unchecked.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GAMEDE was 254 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone HUMBA was 1196 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low off the Queensland coast could develop into a cyclone as early as tomorrow. The low, in the Coral Sea about 1000km off Cape York, was moving slowly towards the Queensland coast while deepening. "The ocean temperature is very warm, around 30 degrees, in this region, which provides the fuel for cyclones to develop." But the cyclone, to be named Odette, was not likely to reach the coast and instead is expected to continue southwest for the next day or two before curving southeast and away from the coast. It is unlikely to bring rain or gales to Queensland, but beachgoers could expect large swells across southeast Queensland by the weekend.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
BOLIVIA - Residents of Trinidad, capital of the northern department of Beni, may be evacuated due to the danger of flooding, something UNPRECEDENTED IN THE HISTORY OF THE REGION. The roadway encircling the city that acts as a dike to protect it from flooding was just 40 centimeters short of being washed over. Civil Defense authorities are studying an emergency plan for evacuating the city’s tens of thousands of inhabitants due to the dangerous rise in floodwaters after heavy rain.

MOZAMBIQUE - Flood photos - an aid worker described the extent of Cyclone Favio's damage. "Everything is smashed - the infrastructure is gone. The towns of Vilanculos [44,000] and Inhassaro [about 15,000] are worst affected - there are no more hospitals, no more schools and 80% of homes are damaged." More photos.

GUATEMALA - Calm has returned to the Guatemala City neighborhood of San Antonio after a major landslide killed three people and triggered the evacuation of hundreds of local residents. The landslide occurred suddenly on Thursday night and lasted till Friday morning, striking a 50-meter-diameter, 75-meter-deep hole in the ground and damaging about 200 nearby homes. People made homeless by the landslide were sheltered in five temporary tents. Leaks in the city's pipes had created other exits for the city's sewage, eroding a massive cavern under a certain part of the city. Eventually the roof of the cavern gave way, causing the landslide inside the city.

INDIA - The Jammu-Srinagar National Highway was affected for the fifth consecutive day following landslides and shooting stones. Long queues of trucks could be seen stranded there and truck drivers have accused the administration of not providing them edibles after whatever they carried with them ended. Over 1,000 passengers were stranded on either side of the road - the only surface link between Jammu and Kashmir and rest of the country - due to the closure, and many crossed the affected stretch of the road by foot to reach their destinations. Although the debris was expected to be cleared sometime in the afternoon, the shooting stones were causing problems in making the road traffic-worthy.

SNOW / COLD -
TAJIKISTAN - This year temperatures in Tajikistan reached an UNUSUAL minus-17 degrees Celsius, the lowest since 2002. The lowest temperature is usually between minus-five degrees to minus-seven degrees Celsius. Geologists say such cold weather is the result of global climate changes. UNUSUAL prolonged frost has also compounded the situation. The situation in many settlements and towns across Tajikistan is acute, with no gas or electricity.

WISCONSIN - According to a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the snow was UNUSUAL throughout the weekend in both its type and accumulation. “This is wildly out of the ordinary. We don’t get storms like this very often.” Nearly 18 inches fell from Friday evening to Sunday morning. With temperatures hovering around 32 degrees, the snow was an uncharacteristically wet mix when it arrived in the city. “That’s not common around here. Usually that’s the type that shows up in New England, with that concrete, mashed potato type of snow.” The irregular weather developed Friday from an upper-level disturbance over California.
This past weekend's storm SET A RECORD for the first time more than four inches of snowfall has been recorded on three consecutive days - the historical records date back to 1869. The National Weather Service reports six inches of snowfall for Madison on Friday, 4.4 inches for Saturday and another 4.9 inches on Sunday, for a weekend total of 15.3 inches. The high moisture content of this weekend's heavy snows has slowed snow plowing and removal efforts - almost doubling the usual time it takes to clear the city's streets. This is the fourth snowiest February on record, and with meteorologists forecasting another inch or two between now and March 1, third or even second snowiest may yet be within reach.

PENNSYLVANIA - The sleet that fell on Feb. 13 and 14 was a wild and extraordinary event. It was ONE OF THE MOST DISRUPTIVE NORTHEAST STORMS ON RECORD. People wound up stranded on I-78 for up to 24 hours. Atop an unexpectedly stubborn layer of cold air, the Valentine's Day storm created a strange and persistent atmospheric parfait. Warm air melted snow on the way down, but then cold air refroze it before it landed. What resulted was prodigious, perhaps RECORD, amounts of sleet. The models were calling for a major ice storm - with a "bull's-eye" of up to 2.5 inches of precipitation in northeastern Pennsylvania. That's the water equivalent of up to three feet of snow. The best estimate is that 4 of the 7 snow and ice inches measured at the Allentown station consisted of sleet. That is a phenomenal amount. Typically, it takes a forecast of a mere half-inch to trigger a "heavy sleet warning." So 4 inches would be eight times the warning criterion. Sustained sleet is at the very least UNUSUAL. Sleet suggests an atmosphere in transition. Ordinarily it occurs when warm air aloft is entering or exiting, as rain is changing to snow or vice versa. Rarely is it a main event.

HEAT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Ancient Australian Aborigines may hold the key to battling huge bushfires which have blackened large parts of Europe, the US and Australia in recent years, fire experts said. Prehistoric Aboriginal people across Australia methodically burnt land to reduce the fierceness of natural bushfires, as well as to hunt and stimulate the growth of plants. They also understood that forest fuels should not go untended, in an early lesson for modern societies threatened by megafires triggered by climate change and rising world temperatures. "We have to figure out what we are reserving our forests for. If we are reserving them for big fires, then that's working well." Megafires occur when large bushfires merge and form super firefronts that burn with hurricane intensity, often levelling hundreds of homes and vast areas of bushland. Megafires in 2003 destroyed thousands of homes in France, Portugal, Spain, the US and Canada, while fires this year swept uncontrolled for more than a month through an area bigger than Lebanon in Australia's rugged southeastern Alps. Steady global temperature rises are leading to longer fire seasons across the world and megafires burn with such intensity that they leave little behind. "There are no refuges for fauna. Our choice is whether we burn frequently at low intensity in mild weather of our choosing, or whether we are subjected to the whims of nature."

CHINA - Falling water levels in China's Yangtze River have left 1 million people short of drinking water. A severe drought has caused the water level in China's longest river to plunge over the last two weeks, severely cutting water-pumping capacity. Water levels in the Yangtze and Jialing rivers have declined sharply because of a lack of rainfall, which followed a severe drought last summer. The problem is expected to continue until the rainy season begins in May. "If the water levels in the Yangtze and its upper tributary Jialing River continue to decline, we'll face a real crisis." Last summer's drought in the southwest was the worst in 50 years, causing more than $1.1 billion in economic losses.

INDIA - For years, tourists have come to India's Keoladeo Ghana National Park to gaze at shimmering, bird-flocked wetlands stretching to the horizon. But where there were once vast lakes, visitors now find puddles nursed by a network of stuttering diesel-fuelled pumps, which suck up groundwater from deep beneath the parched earth. Years of poor monsoon rains have left most of this World Heritage site near Bharatpur in the desert state of Rajasthan dry and cracked. This has forced most of the thousands of migratory birds that would once spectacularly descend on Keoladeo every year for the winter to make alternative arrangements elsewhere. "Before, the skies were so full of birds it was a wonder they didn't collide into each other. Now there is nothing there."

Monday, February 26, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "The first rule of intelligent tinkering is to save all the parts." - Aldo Leopold

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/25 -
5.3 GREENLAND SEA
5.0 GREENLAND SEA
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.3 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.0 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION

Shanghai seismologists use not only the most sensitive technology but also the most sensitive lions, tigers and bears in the zoo to help them predict earthquakes. It's well known that many animals with their keen senses pick up vibrations and changes in the atmosphere before earthquakes. The changes cause bizarre animal behavior. Carefully charting their normal patterns and abnormal, erratic behavior can assist in earthquake prediction. In Shanghai, 12 zoos form a network in which animals are closely observed every day and behavior logs are kept. Species from bears to snakes are observed. Abnormal behavior includes moving about restlessly, jumping, making noises (roaring, hissing, growing, etc) or rushing at fences for prolonged periods. The animal-watching project started in the early 1980s after the world's third-worst earthquake in 1976 that obliterated Tangshan in Hebei Province and killed more than 242,000. Strange geologic signs and animal behavior were reported before the temblor: Chickens refused to eat and acted wildly; dogs barked furiously; goldfish jumped out of their bowls. In 1996, they observed all the birds hanging upside down from the top of their cages, like bats. Several days later, a minor earthquake shook Changshu in neighboring Jiangsu Province. Before the devastating earthquake and tsunami in December of 2004, elephants in Thailand migrated from their resting places; tree frogs jumped into bungalow bathrooms; snakes slithered into visitors' shoes. In 1975 in Liaoning Province in the north, experts predicted a 7.5-magnitude quake based on seismic activity and pre-cursory observation - namely the activity of agitated animals. "That earthquake caused a huge amount of damage but the number of fatalities was minimal as all the citizens were advised to evacuate." There were many pre-cursory tremors and animals behaved strangely. "Chickens flew up into the trees. Mice dashed about and dogs barked and barked." Though experts say chances of a big quake in Shanghai are virtually nil, three great quakes, including the world's deadliest, have shaken other parts of China in the past 450 years.

TSUNAMI -
The next tsunami threat to India may be from the West - The Indian sub-continent could face the next tsunami threat from the West, and not the East, as the 500-km fault line along Baluchistan remains dangerously vulnerable to earthquakes of high magnitudes. "This rupture zone, lying East to West near South Iran, is much narrower compared to the 1,200-km-long weak zone along the Indonesian island, where the 9.1 magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami that devastated the East coast of India and Sri Lanka in December 2004. However, this has remained silent for long and poses a live danger to the West coast of India." Nobody knows when it last 'moved' in the recent past, but it is a potential danger to the West coast of the sub-continent, as an earthquake of even a small magnitude could trigger a tsunami. The north Indian belt is one of the most dangerous belts prone to earthquake and the cities in this part of the country face a major threat due to dense population.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GAMEDE was 189 nmi NNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion and 192 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclon HUMBA was 1171 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Cyclone Gamede - One person was killed on Mauritius and nine hurt in the French Indian Ocean department of Reunion when the tropical cyclone brushed the island at the weekend. The victims had ignored official bans on going out while Cyclone Gamede was in the vicinity. On Mauritius, a man of 22 was swept away by high waves on Saturday about 10km south of the capital, Port Louis. In the south of Reunion, a 520m-long bridge was swept away and about 100,000 people were deprived of electricity. The collapse of the bridge over the Saint Etienne river is a disaster that will cause serious disruption to the local economy. Torrential rain and wind reaching a RECORD 205km/h has also caused heavy damage to crops, especially sugar cane and bananas. Mozambican authorities were keeping an eye on the cyclone to see whether it would follow the same route as Cyclone Favio, which killed at least 10 people along the Mozambican coast this week.

Insurance companies have been retreating from their coverage of coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S., leaving homeowners with fewer and fewer options. Allstate Corp., State Farm Insurance Cos. and Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. - three of the largest insurers in Maryland - have moved to limit their liability along the Atlantic Coast and in some cases near the Chesapeake Bay, areas feared to be at heightened risk from hurricanes. Similar changes have been made in other coastal areas; State Farm recently decided to stop selling new policies on homes and small businesses in all of Mississippi. Companies are not only refusing new policies in coastal areas; they are raising rates, imposing higher deductibles and dropping coverage for certain claims, such as mold damage. The changes by insurance companies follow devastating coastal storms in recent years, and an explosion of waterfront development such as expensive homes and condos. Also, some forecasters are making cataclysmic predictions of a hurricane costing $100 billion in insured losses, or twice as much as Hurricane Katrina, which pounded the Gulf Coast two years ago. Risk modelers, who forecast natural disasters for the insurance industry, have changed their methods to take into account the higher sea temperatures that fuel storms. Legislators are displeased and said, "We have to send the message you just can't pick and choose based on some prediction of what may happen in the future. If things were 100 percent guaranteed, you wouldn't need insurance." Insurance companies say they could be on the hook for potentially huge payouts on natural disasters. Homeowner insurance can be an unprofitable business - insurers paid out $10.4 billion more than they earned in Florida over the past 15 years.

WIND -
TEXAS - Winds gusting up to 60 mph whipped North Texas on Saturday afternoon, kicking up enough dust in places to turn the sky orange. The dust storm turned Dallas into a danger zone Saturday. Blown-out windows, falling traffic lights and flying grit were all brought on by a RARE, strong westerly wind. Flight cancellations stranded travelers and 90,000 TXU customers sat without power. Railroad crossing arms got stuck and skyscrapers hummed. A downtown street vendor was nearly bowled over by a flying traffic signal. Unmanageable crosswinds at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport caused several hundred flights to be canceled. The National Weather Service issued a blowing dust advisory, the first one Weather Service officials could remember. "We don't usually see west winds this strong." The wind's direction was responsible for the dust, which caused visibility to drop to as low as a quarter-mile in some areas. Strong southerly winds blew through the area back in October, but it has been about 20 YEARS SINCE WESTERLY WINDS WERE AS STRONG as they were Saturday. "Our wind here is usually out of the south, and we don't usually pick up a lot of dust out of the south."

SNOW / COLD -
WISCONSIN issued its second blizzard warning of the year this past weekend — the first coming before 8 inches of snow hit Sheboygan on Dec. 1 — an EXTREMELY UNCOMMON occurrence. "We usually issue a blizzard warning probably once every five years. It's pretty RARE." This is the first time since 1999 the weather service has issued a blizzard warning for its entire coverage area. The warnings are issued when the weather service expects sustained winds of at least 35 mph combined with falling snow for at least a three-hour period.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
INDONESIA is currently running the risk of losing 2,000 small islands by 2030, due to a sea-level increase, caused by the climate change, a study by the Environment Ministry warned. The warning emerged from a report, according to which the water levels will rise from three to 11 inches within 23 years. In that case, the high tide will flood the Indonesian lowest islands. The minister warned that the agriculture in his country has been affected by changes in the climate pattern, and the temperatures have risen. He also predicted a longest rainy season. This country suffered serious floods in December that caused dozens of deaths, and thousands of people in the island of Sumatra had to be evacuated.

THAILAND - drought is likely to hit rubber and rice output. At least 28 of 76 provinces, mostly in the north and northeast, have been hit by an UNUSUALLY long and dry cool season - normally November to January - and are expected to face an extra-hot hot season - normally February to April - when it finally starts. "The cool season has lasted longer than expected." The cool season's persistence to the end of February has already hit the $4-billion-a-year natural rubber industry, as less latex flows from rubber trees during periods of little or no rainfall.
THAILAND - This dry season will be two or three months longer than usual, posing a high risk of drought where irrigation systems are lacking, according to the Royal Irrigation Department. Fifteen provinces are now in the initial stages of drought. 21 per cent of villages (15,698 villages) located in 40 of the country's 76 provinces are facing the problem. The delay of rain during the last wet season had been caused by the El Nino phenomenon and the unseasonable downpours earlier in January have stopped. The rainy season normally runs from July to October, peaking in August. No water for farming is available, and crops on more than 1,000 rai are wasting away. Severe drought has ruined 67,290 rai of farmland and affected nearly 500,000 residents in the four lower northern provinces.

SOUTH AFRICA - Reservoirs running dry in heat wave - The sizzling heat wave is not letting go just yet and, to make matters worse, some of the city's reservoirs are running dry. The hottest February day in Pretoria was measured in 1984 on February 15, when the mercury hit 36.8ºC. They came pretty close to breaking that record this week with a high of 36ºC recorded on Wednesday.

CHINA faces a higher risk of natural disasters including floods and drought this year, according to the Water Resources Vice-Minister, who told local authorities to prepare for torrential floods, typhoons and continued drought. Major Chinese rivers, including the Yangtze and the Yellow rivers, have not seen big floods for several years, with their water levels dropping in 2006. This signals a higher risk of heavy floods this year. Meanwhile, there has been inadequate rainfall in Yangtze River areas since August last year. The river's water level has dropped about 40 percent on average. Two of the biggest lakes along the river, Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake, were 60 percent and 10 percent lower than their average level. Inadequate rainfall has also plagued most of the northern part of the country. Coupled with the higher-than-usual temperatures in these areas, drought has already hit several places, some of which do not have a sufficient supply of drinking water for herds, according to the vice-minister. The country has seen more uneven distribution of rainfall in recent years. The "UNUSUAL winter" - warm, dry, with almost no snow - is likely to result in heavy sandstorms in Beijing during the spring of 2007. That will be "even more severe than what happened last year." In the spring of 2006, Beijing was hit by 17 sandstorms. Beijing had an UNUSUALLY low snowfall this winter, and the temperature was unseasonably high. Beijing experienced its HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 55 YEARS last year. Temperatures are predicted to be even higher this year. "The greenhouse effect will easily lead to weather extremes, which may result in droughts worse than our imagination." Beijing in 2006 suffered its eighth consecutive year of drought. The total annual rainfall last year was 448 millimeters, 137 millimeters less than the city's recorded average.

DISEASE THREATS -
AUSTRALIA - Drought and heat are being blamed for a doubling in food poisoning cases in 2007. Alarming health department statistics show more than 800 South Australians have suffered food poisoning in the first seven weeks of this year. This is more than double the year-to-date average of 379 for the past three years. The usual health authority reckoning is that the confirmed cases represent about 10 per cent of the number of people affected, which would mean more than 8000 victims. While the current E coli outbreak is troubling health investigators, campylobacter has been responsible for most of the latest illnesses. Since January 1, there have been 528 confirmed cases, compared with 222 for the same period last year. Salmonella cases are up from 99 to 155 and cryptosporidium from 41 to 105.

Sunday, February 25, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, then man would only have four years left to live." - Albert Einstein

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
1/24 -
5.0 KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 VANUATU REGION
5.2 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.2 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
6.3 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
1/23 -
5.6 AISEN, CHILE
5.0 TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO
5.0 ECUADOR

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - Ground deformation data indicates that the Campi Flegrei caldera, near Naples, Italy, is undergoing renewed uplift. It is part of a larger volcanic arc that includes Mount Vesuvius. The volcanic area, which had its last eruption in 1538, started a new uplift episode in November 2004. This uplift began at a low rate, but has since slowly and steadily increased. According to previous studies, the 16th century eruption occurred after decades of uplift coupled with brief periods of subsidence. Within the past 40 years, the caldera experienced a huge uplift phase until 1985. The new data indicate that a subsequent period of subsidence has now ended. The ratio of maximum horizontal to vertical displacement, determined from Global Positioning System data, suggests that the uplift is associated with input of magma from a shallow chamber. Scientists have not said whether an eruption might occur anytime soon.

INDONESIA - At least six trucks were trapped when cool lava slid down from the peak of Mt. Merapi to Gendol river in Sleman regency, Yogyakarta province. The cool lava slid down from the peak of the 3,000 meter-high mountain after heavy rain. Two of the trucks were buried because they were parked in lower parts of the river, while other trucks could not go out from the area because its surroundings were filled with volcanic debris. There is no report of casualty although hundreds of sand miners were on the river before it was filled with the volcanic materials.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GAMEDE was 172 nmi WNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone HUMBA was 1273 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MOZAMBIQUE - Cyclone Favio flattened most of the worst-hit town, Vilankulo in coastal Inhambane province. It left at least 10 people dead and 70 injured in the east of the country.

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (June through November) - El Nino is disappearing, and La Nina might be about to poke her head up. The upshot is that this year's Atlantic hurricane season could be very busy. El Nino is a warming trend in Pacific tropical waters that creates high altitude winds that shear hurricanes in this hemisphere. The surprise appearance of an El Nino last year is credited with cutting off a storm season predicted to be bad. La Nina is a cooling trend that weakens or turns around those shearing winds. The busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons have tended to be La Nina years. On top of that, Atlantic tropical sea-surface temperatures continue to be warmer than the average - another big factor in hurricane formation - and African rainfall patterns are suggesting a busy year. Hurricanes form from monsoon storms spinning off the western African coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
BOLIVIA - International aid has started to arrive in Bolivia, which in recent weeks has seen its WORST FLOODING IN 25 YEARS. An area the size of the UK is under water after nearly three months of heavy rain. The floods have killed nearly 40, with tens of thousands of people forced from their homes. Health officials have also reported outbreaks of dengue fever. While aid has arrived, landslides are delaying the evacuation of flood zones. More than 350,000 people have been affected, many of them poor indigenous people in remote areas of the country.

GUATEMALA - a sinkhole which has opened up in a town in Guatemala has killed at least two, swallowed several homes and led to the evacuation of more than 1000 residents. The 100-metre deep hole, which is believed to have been caused by heavy rains and an underground sewage flow, has emitted foul odours and tremors and authorities fear it could open up further.

PAKISTAN /KASHMIR - At least 13 people were buried alive and five others injured as a passenger van came under a big landslide in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir on Saturday. Local agencies said the mishap occurred at 14:30 local time in a village near Rawalakot, some 60 km northeast of Pakistani capital city of Islamabad, as a rain-triggered landslide hit the wagon. Reports say the death toll might rise as there were some 18 passengers aboard the minibus. (photo)

NIGERIA - a landslide disaster in Agwagune community in Biase Local Government Area of Cross River State claimed five lives and caused tremendous damages to the area. There are over 1,208 family units, consisting of 3,855 persons affected in the landslide, while property worth millions of naira was destroyed and over 68 houses submerged. The area is always flooded, out of the 12 months of the Calendar, dry periods persist for four months. The state government has approved an alternative resettlement site for the people, but only 20 per cent of the population relocated due to the prevalent poverty situation amongst the people. The clan head recalled that this was the eighth time the natural disaster had befallen his community and he appealed to the federal government to come to their aid by providing the necessary building materials that could assist total relocation to the new site.

ARKANSAS - A series of severe storms in southern Arkansas catapulted cars into trees, crumpled businesses and ripped mobile homes off the ground Saturday. At least 27 people were injured. Residents of Dumas reported seeing multiple tornadoes. The region was left without electricity, and authorities said an unknown number of people are missing. The storms occurred as a massive system that caused blizzard conditions in the Midwest moved through the region.

HIGH TIDES / FREAK WAVES -
UNITED KINGDOM - 'This is erosion LIKE WE'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE' - One the most ambitious regeneration projects ever undertaken along seven miles of the Welsh coastline is crumbling into the sea. The Millennium Coastal Park in Carmarthenshire, which cost some £30m, is losing huge chunks to the ocean. A combination of high tides and storms have now seen a major section of the park, about a quarter of a mile long, slip into the Burry Estuary, which is notorious for its strong tides. The latest incident at the park took place last Monday, when a 400-metre stretch of cycle path near Burry Port was destroyed by waves. A "FREAK" 8.4 metre-high tide was blamed, as well as violent waves caused by Atlantic storms. "It's very alarming and is causing serious concern in the town. Something serious is happening. It's unbelievable." "A lot of local experts on tides have said that the recent swells have been extremely high. We're suffering with these swells that are battering the coast." A report by the National Trust earlier this month predicted a grim future for Wales' picturesque, and increasingly lucrative, coastline. Increased flooding and erosion was predicted because of storms and raised sea levels caused by climate change.

SNOW / COLD -
U.S. - A large, fast-moving snowstorm closed sections of major highways in parts of the central United States on Saturday, dumped more than 30 centimetres of snow on the Upper Midwest and caused seven traffic deaths in Wisconsin. The storms knocked out power to more than 145,000 customers, mostly in Iowa, where freezing rain coated trees, power and utility lines. The weather service posted blizzard and winter storm warnings for parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. "This is going to be a monster in the northern plains tonight and into the western Great Lakes." We're going to see six to 12 inches of wind-whipped snow." Between 15 inches to 18 inches of snow had fallen between Winona, Minn., and La Crosse, Wis., by Saturday evening, with more snow expected. Winds reaching 60 mph helped fuel dozens of grass fires across Texas, destroying three homes near Midland and forcing evacuations at Fort Hood.

VERMONT - Nearly 15 years ago, an ice jam in the Winooski River caused catastrophic flooding in Vermont's capital. Now, officials are warning it could happen again and telling people to prepare for it. Sections of the river are frozen solid, triggering fears of a repeat of the March 11, 1992 flood that caused millions of dollars in damage. Engineers say it's the FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT that the river in Montpelier has been so packed with ice in what is called a "freeze up jam". This year's jam was caused by unseasonably warm weather through mid-January followed by an extended period of bitter cold. Now, stretches of the Winooski are frozen solid with what experts call "frazzle ice". If the weather turns suddenly warm or heavy rains fall, it could be trouble. For years, the city left a crane parked on the edge of town, to be used to break up ice jams. The crane remains there, but it may not do much good this time around because it would have to clear solid ice from a mile of river.

HEAT / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
On Jan. 31, the average Lake Superior water level was only 600 feet above mean sea level. That's more than one foot lower than the level in January 2006, and just two to three inches higher than the record low of 599.8 feet measured in 1926. "Much of northwestern Wisconsin has been classified as in the extreme drought category." Many stations in the northwestern corner of Wisconsin recorded annual precipitation totals for 2006 that were a staggering 10 to 15 inches (or more) below 30-year averages.

DISEASE THREATS -
ALERTS:
RECALLED - "Wellsley Farms" Green Bean Casserole which was distributed nationwide in BJ's Wholesale Club retail stores. They have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.
RECALLED - Castle Produce, a subsidiary of Tropical Produce, Inc., a wholesale importer of fresh fruit and vegetables announced the recall of cantaloupes in California due to potential health concerns. Some cantaloupes delivered on or after 2/16/2007 have tested positive for Salmonella.

Friday, February 23, 2007 -

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.2 ETHIOPIA

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Nevado del Huila volcano had a major eruption on Wednesday, shooting ash thousands of feet into the air. The eruption triggered a series of tremors that set off landslides. Villagers living near the volcano have begun evacuating. The Paez River has been contaminated with volcanic ash for days. (PHOTOS & VIDEO)

Volcanoes can trigger earthquakes, avalanches and devastating lava flows. Add to this list lightning, which has now been detected striking from the mouth of a volcano. A new study reveals the first direct observations of this well-known but poorly understood volcano-electrical phenomenon. “Lightning is often seen during [a] volcanic eruption. It occurs mostly during the big part of the eruption, when there are big volcanic plumes being produced.” The lightning in a volcanic eruption occurs because the ash and other debris blasting out of the volcano are highly charged. Though lightning was known to occur in the debris clouds above the volcano, the researchers found an earlier phase of volcanic lightning that had never before been observed and occurred right at the volcano's mouth just as it began erupting.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 1231 nmi W of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GAMEDE was 435 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone 16S was 1640 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Cyclone Favio lashed central Mozambique on Thursday with heavy rains and sustained winds of 200 kilometres an hour, raising fears of further flooding after tens of thousands of people were already forced from their homes. Forecasters say the storm, which has brought gusts of up to 230 km/h, weakened slightly as it made landfall, but was still expected to wreak havoc in the region over the next 12 hours. A second storm, Cyclone Gamede, is churning in the Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar and threatens to make landfall in the same area of central Mozambique before dawn today. (photo)
Favio killed four people and injured at least 70 in Mozambique's resort town of Vilanculos, where thousands of homes were destroyed along with the hospital and power grid. "There are no words to describe the drama, I haven't seen such a thing in my life."
ZIMBABWE - Heavy rains and strong winds are expected in Manicaland and the low lying areas later today as Tropical Cyclone Favio now hitting Mozambique moves closer to Zimbabwe. There are fears that strong winds rated at 50km/hr could damage buildings, devastate vegetation and cause flooding in low lying areas. "We are expecting most of our dams' levels to increase in Save, Mazowe, Manyame and Sanyati catchments. For those dams that are nearly full we expect them to spill, especially in the eastern, northern and central parts of the country." High flows were also expected in most major rivers and their tributaries. A fierce storm recently swept across the Domboshawa area and destroyed more than 20 houses, uprooted trees and injured five people.
SOUTH AFRICA - The tropical cyclone which is causing major floods in Mozambique is also behind the sweltering heat wave in South Africa. The rotating cyclone is sucking in moist air, leaving SA with a high-pressure system, and therefore hot and dry conditions. Many parts of SA had been “moderately to severely dry” in January. The drought has also affected dam levels which have been dropping since December and notably in the last week or so.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
U.S. - In the West, a powerful Pacific storm is pounding northern and central California with heavy rain and snow, while lighter showers dot the Northwest. Today showers and thunderstorms associated with a developing storm will erupt from the eastern Plains southward to the western Gulf Coast. During the weekend, this significant and potentially dangerous storm will produce widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the Midwest into the northeast, while locally severe thunderstorms will sweep across the South. More than one foot of snow, driven by high winds, may blanket parts of the upper Midwest, while substantial ice accumulations may occur from Iowa into Ohio. Ice may also glaze parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. (satellite photo)


SNOW / COLD -
MONTANA and much of the rest of the U.S. West are seeing ONE OF THE WORST AVALANCHE SEASONS IN YEARS and there still is a lot of winter left. "We are going to keep getting winter storms and we are going to have avalanche danger for the remainder of the winter." Last weekend, avalanches killed six people in Montana, Utah and Idaho. Nationwide, avalanches have killed 14 people. Another person died in Canada. There are two types of snow avalanches: Loose snow avalanches that begin in a small area, but grow larger, taking on more snow as they descend; and slab avalanches that start as a large slide.

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
PERU - Extreme weather conditions throughout Peru left thousands of people stranded on Tuesday. In central Peru, unseasonal snow caused at least 43,000 families to leave their homes. The main roads in the area were blocked, causing heavy traffic throughout the area. In southern Peru severe rain storms in Ica destroyed several homes and forced thousands of residents to evacuate. Meanwhile in Huancavelica, droughts have destroyed hundreds of hectares of crops. "All of the leaves are burnt, even the stems." The region's agriculture director has asked Regional Civil Defence Committee is going to declare a state of emergency in Huancavelica. Many of Peru's primary exports such as asparagus, grapes and cotton are grown in the region.

DISEASE THREATS -
PEANUT BUTTER RECALL - An elderly Chicago area man may be the second person to die after eating tainted peanut butter. So far, at least 300 cases of illnesses have been linked to the outbreak, although one attorney who had already filed a class action lawsuit claims to have been contacted by more than 2,000 alleged victims. The peanut butter, tainted with Salmonella, was marketed under the Peter Pan and generic Great Value brands and was sold after March 2006. The company says the suspect jars can be identified by a number on the jar lid that begins with the number 2111.
Other recent Salmonella outbreaks.

The Tasmanian devil may be just 10 years away from extinction as a hideous disease continues to threaten its survival. "The window of opportunity to avert this calamity is rapidly closing." One option is to establish colonies of healthy devils on islands off the Tasmanian coast to protect them from the disease. They are hoping to find a population resistant to facial tumour disease that could provide genetic clues towards preventing the spread of the tumour. "The extinction of the Tasmanian devil would alter our terrestrial ecosystems almost beyond recognition."

Thursday, February 22, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - The nice thing about egoists is that they don't talk about other people. -Lucille S. Harp

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/21 -
5.7 EASTERN TURKEY
5.5 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

NEW ZEALAND - Scientists assured nervous residents of Auckland, New Zealand's biggest city which sits on a field of about 50 dormant volcanoes, that there was no prospect of an eruption after three earthquakes rattled the area last evening. Although New Zealand is one of the world's most earthquake prone countries, with about 14,000 a year being recorded, they rarely occur in the Auckland region, with the last big quake nearly 30 years ago. The three quakes, measuring 3.7, 4.5 and 3.8 on the Richter scale, caused widespread alarm Wednesday evening. Seismologists said the quakes were shallow, which is why they were felt so sharply, as well as RARE, prompting near-panic. Wednesday's shakes resulted from movement on known geological fault lines and were not related to volcanic activity.
The 4.5 quake was their LARGEST QUAKE IN A CENTURY, since the 1890s. The 4.5 tremor struck at nine o'clock and was UNUSUALLY SHALLOW at 15kms deep. It was one of the larger earthquakes Auckland has had in its history.

INDONESIA - A second earthquake measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale was detected at North Maluku in Indonesia Wednesday morning without signs of a possible tsunami. The tremor, which occurred at 11.19 am local time, was a follow-up undersea earthquake to the first one at 6.6 on the Richter scale that happened Tuesday evening. Meanwhile in Kuala Lumpur, the Meteorological Department reported a moderate earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale near South of Sumba Island, 574 kilometres southeast of Denpasar, Indonesia and 1,762 kilometres southeast of Sibu. It said the earthquake occurred at 7.12 am.

TURKEY - A moderate quake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.9 shook southeastern Turkey on Wednesday, sending people into the streets in panic and damaging some buildings. No injuries were reported. The epicenter of the quake was the town of Sivrice in the province of Elazig. The quake caused great panic and partly collapsed a building in the village of Kayapinar while slightly damaging a primary school as well as a post office in the town of Sivrice. Soldiers and police were trying to reach remote mountain villages. The same area was struck by a magnitude 5.3 quake on Feb. 9.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 1174 nmi WSW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone GAMEDE was 586 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone 16S was 1712 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

MOZAMBIQUE - powerful tropical cyclone Favio, with winds of up to 230 km per hour (144 mph), surged ashore in southern Mozambique this morning, uprooting trees, knocking over electric pylons and raising fears of new floods. Cyclone Favio is the STRONGEST TO HIT the southern African country. It's magnitude is stronger than that of the Cyclone Eline in 2000, the previous worst to hit Mozambique. Favio is heading towards the Zambezi River valley where it is likely to worsen floods which have already killed some 40 people and driven 120,000 from their homes. Now rated a category four storm, Cyclone Favio hit the tourist town of Vilanculos early today, destroying a number of houses built of flimsy material. Mozambique's cyclone early warning system said a storm of Favio's magnitude could bring widespread destruction of homes, buildings and industrial structures including power grids, as well as crops and trees. Officials said the problems could multiply in the coming days as Favio dumps its rains in Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe, further swelling tributaries which feed the already-flooded Zambezi.

EL NINO -
AUSTRALIA - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has declared the weather pattern El Nino over. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and their impact on climate over land in the southern Hemisphere. "All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Nino thresholds for about a month now." "While the end of the El Nino would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons." "The chance of a La Nina developing in 2007 is thought to be higher than the long-term average. La Nina events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn."

MORE BIRD DEATHS -
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Scientists are struggling to explain the rare death of 17 loons in New Hampshire, saying warm weather may have confused the threatened species of bird which typically heads to the ocean for winter. The 17 represented about 3 percent of New Hampshire's loon population. Twenty-two male and female Great Northern Divers, known as Common Loons, were found on Saturday and Sunday on Lake Winnipesaukee, many them covered in snow from wind gusts, with their heads tucked into their wings to keep warm. Biologists are unclear why the loons congregated on the ice deep in New Hampshire when they normally migrate to open water in winter. "This is the first time I ever have seen this. It's UNPRECEDENTED." Five birds that survived were transported to the ocean and released. Initial evidence suggests that the loons were in the process of molting new flying feathers, an annual event that usually happens after the birds have migrated for the winter. Last winter, large expanses of the lake did not fully freeze, and some of the loons did not migrate to the ocean. The stranded loons may have stayed at the lake last year as well.

DISEASE THREATS -
ALERT - BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. announced the voluntary recall of pre-packaged Wellsley Farms brand fresh mushrooms purchased between February 11 and February 19, 2007 due to a potential health risk. Test results reported from a routine inspection of produce showed the possible presence of trace amounts of E. coli.

PAKISTAN - An outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least four peacocks and a goose in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. Last March, H5N1 was found in north-west Pakistan, India and Afghanistan.

NORTH KOREA - A measles epidemic has hit North Korea, causing at least four deaths and infecting some 3000 people.

CANADA - A Vancouver child has succumbed to influenza, marking the first pediatric death in Canada during this UNUSUALLY LATE flu season.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a commodity to which we belong, we may use it with love and respect." - Aldo Leopold

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/20 -
5.2 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.9 KEPULAUAN SULA, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
6.5 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

VOLCANOES -
BURMA - A volcano located on Rambree Island in Arakan State, Burma, erupted Monday as local people closely watched the situation without fear. The eruption of the volcano started at 11:30 am and lasted only ten minutes, spewing ash and hot gasses a few kilometers into the sky. The volcano is situated about one mile north of Sit Taung Village under Sai Khron Village Tract in Kyauk Pru District. Local people had previously believed that the volcano was extinct, but they are now filled with wonder as the volcano has erupted again and again. The volcano also erupted in 2004, before the tsunami struck the Indian Ocean coasts. Many villagers had to move to safer locations under government arrangement after the 2004 eruption.

RUSSIA - A powerful discharge of ash from the crater of the Shiveluch volcano was been registered on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on Monday. The strength of volcano’s eruptions is growing with every year. In 1964, its eruption was classified by scientists as catastrophic. After a calm period the volcano again began to show its “explosive nature” in 1984. The process is similar to the one that was underway in the period between the giant’s catastrophic eruptions of 1854 and 1964. By analogy with the past period, there is a 100-year period between powerful eruptions, therefore a new powerful eruption of the volcano is possible within the next 40-50 years that is comparable in power with the 1964 eruption, when Shiveluch spewed over one cubic kilometres of volcanic ejecta.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 875 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MOZAMBIQUE - Disaster officials and aid agencies are closely monitoring tropical cyclone Favio as it crosses the narrow sea channel from Madagascar. It is due to make landfall in flood-drenched Mozambique on Thursday. A major storm hitting Mozambique's central provinces, where more than 120,000 people have already been displaced, could seriously hurt ongoing relief efforts. The exact trajectory of Favio is still uncertain. It could make landfall further south, in Inhambane province, where rains would be welcome to alleviate near drought conditions. It could also strengthen. The impact of Favio has already been felt in Madagascar where it scrapped the southern tip of the Indian Ocean island, disrupting relief operations which were trying to reach 582,000 people struggling to cope with the aftermath of a drought in the south, and flooding that has left at least three dead and displaced 33,000 throughout the country. The storm caused heavy rains that reduced road access to the southeastern parts of the island. Flooding has disrupted agriculture, with ramifications for already precarious food security. The southeastern Vatovavy Fitovinany region has lost 70 pecent to 87 percent of its rice paddies. There is "high potential" for outbreaks of water-borne disease in the capital, Antanananarivo.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
BOLIVIA - No end to the deadly floods - At least 35 people have died and 10 are missing in Bolivia as a result of floods caused by months of heavy rain. Up to 340,000 people are estimated to have been affected, as water levels continue to rise in eastern areas. Roads in the worst-hit departments of Santa Cruz and Beni have been blocked by mudslides, hampering relief efforts. The government has declared a state of emergency and is appealing for international aid. Two months of heavy rain have been blamed on the El Nino effect, an occasional seasonal warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean. Local authorities in the worst-hit areas say many communities have been completely cut off by the floods, and it has been impossible to get aid to them. The situation is critical and could get worse in the next five days.

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
SOUTH AFRICA - a national warning has been issued by the South African Weather Service as Johannesburg is set to have an uncomfortably hot week. Temperatures that are already high are expected to increase for the rest of the week. Tuesday's temperature of 32° Celsius is expected to boil up to a scorching 34° later this week. "This is the result of the little moisture in the air."

DISEASE THREATS -
ALERTS -
-RECALLED: some flavors of Wild Kitty Cat Food All Natural, Frozen Cat Food, because they may be contaminated with Salmonella.
-RECALLED: Dole Fresh Fruit Company announced the recall of cantaloupes in the Eastern U.S. and Quebec due to potential health concerns; some have tested positive for Salmonella.
-ALLERGY ALERT: Vita Specialty Foods, Inc. of Martinsburg, West Virginia, is voluntarily recalling a number of their sauces (Jim Beam, Scorned Woman, Budweiser, IU Hoosiers Varsity, Virginia Tech) because their labels do not disclose that the products contain a flavor ingredient derived from milk. People who have an allergy or severe sensitivity to milk run the risk of serious or life-threatening allergic reaction if they consume these products.

INDONESIA - Nearly 200,000 people are suffering from flood-related disease in the capital city of Indonesia after a week of rain - and the ensuing floodwaters - drove more than 400,000 people from their homes.

U.S. - Much of the United States – particularly in the Great Lakes and the Northeast – has combined sewer systems, in which sewage is carried to treatment facilities, but can overflow into rivers and lakes during storms. Add climate change to the recipe, which already has brought significantly higher rainfall to some parts of the country, and “This means more people in danger of getting sick, and likely more people are getting sick already.” In the summer of 2004, 1,450 people reported being ill in a resort community in northern Ohio with campylobacter, norovirus, giardia and salmonella. That summer was marked by rainfall that was 150 percent above the 50-year average. The difficult separation of drinking water and sewage may face more challenges than its aging infrastructure can withstand as unpredictable weather conditions produce floods that beset the nation. “Outbreaks of waterborne illness are like the plane crashes of the water industry. They’re the big events that get people’s attention. But there are other things going on. Beneath the big outbreak, we could have 5 percent of people getting sick and it wouldn’t even be reported." The nation needs better ways to monitor the safety of drinking water. The recipe for disaster is there, including intake points for drinking water are not consistently shielded from the sewage that periodically spills into surface waters; there is inadequate monitoring of the rivers, lakes and streams that provide drinking water and the quality of the treated drinking water; and there are signs that the water and sewer pipes are getting old.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go. - Oscar Wilde

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

This morning there was a 6.5 quake in HALMAHERA, INDONESIA. A tsunami warning was briefly issued. Today's quake came less than a month after a magnitude-7.3 earthquake hit in roughly the same spot.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/19 -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.8 VANUATU REGION
5.2 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.6 LAKE ALBERT REGION, CONGO


VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Colombian authorities ordered villages evacuated on Monday after the Nevado del Huila volcano in the south-western province of Huila belched ash and increased seismic activity threatened to trigger larger eruptions. "We expect the volcano to continue erupting." The evacuation order affects towns located near rivers in Huila and three other provinces that could be hit by avalanches caused a major eruption. Monday's eruption caused a landslide on the banks of one river and more were feared. No victims were immediately reported. There was no history of volcanic activity in the Nevado del Huila. The biggest natural disaster in Colombian history occurred in 1985 when the central Nevado del Ruiz volcano erupted, killing more than 25,000 people.

NEW ZEALAND - Auckland could be suffocated with a layer of ash next time Mt Taranaki erupts, which could be relatively soon, say scientists. Aucklanders might think they were safe from far-away volcanoes. But ash from Lake Pupuke showed the city had been affected by eruptions from Mt Taranaki and farther afield. Mount Taranaki has about a 400-year cycle and last erupted about 300 years ago. If a major eruption happened, Auckland could be coated with between one millimetre and several centimetres of ash. The latter would disrupt air traffic, indefinitely shut down Auckland airport and damage infrastructure. "If ash gets wet it's a very good conductor of electricity. It would affect big electricity transformers and power lines and that sort of thing." Contaminated water supplies could pose a public health risk, and when the fine-grained ash dried out and blew around it could interfere with people's breathing. New Plymouth, located directly north of Mt Taranaki, could expect up to a metre-thick layer of ash, blocking streets and damaging buildings. "These things are very controlled by the direction the wind is blowing in – you wouldn't expect a uniform blanket of ash across the whole country or even across a city."

RUSSIA - The Shiveluch Volcano in Kamchatka has emitted ash to the height of 5.2 kilometers. The cloud of ash drifted 40 kilometers northwest of the volcano, whose eruption started on December 5, 2006. Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano, located near Shiveluch, is also active. Some 455 tremors occurred in the volcano area during the day, and over 70 tremors were registered 30 kilometers under the main crater. Steam, gas and ash gushed up to 500 meters high. The eruption of the 4.8-kilometer-high Klyuchevskaya Sopka started on February 15. The crater, which is 400 meters wide and 400 meters deep, is slowly filling with lava, but there are no streams of lava on the volcano sides yet. Experts say that the volcano’s activity will intensify. Both volcanoes are being monitored permanently. So far, they do not endanger local villages.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 698 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Nearly 25,000 people are in need of humanitarian aid after a series of floods in Madagascar, while another tropical storm (Favio) threatens the island's southwest region. Rising flood waters have covered houses, cut off main roads, and destroyed an estimated 200,000 tonnes of rice on the world's fourth-largest island. So far this cyclone season - which usually lasts between November and March - six cyclones have hit Madadgascar, the worst of which were Bondo and Clovis in January.

SNOW / COLD -
RUSSIA - A storm warning was declared in Kamchatka over an approaching strong snow cyclone. The hurricane is moving from Japan to Kamchatka with a velocity of 60 kilometers per hour. The cyclone will reach the peninsula by today. A heavy snowfall and blizzards are expected there. The wind velocity will reach 25-30 meters per second on the south-western and south-eastern coasts. Hurricane winds of 40-45 meters per second will be registered in the north-western part of the Pacific. Vessels were warned about the approaching cyclone. The impact of the cyclone will be strong in southern Kamchatka for three days. The storm will begin subsiding after February 22, specialists said.
After weeks of rain and unprecedented high temperatures, cold and snow finally hit back in central Russia, sending bears to their winter slumber and endangering other hibernating species like hedgehogs. "As soon as snow covered the earth, the brown bear that stayed awake all this time returned to his lair and fell asleep." However, hedgehogs - who also failed to go into hibernation and are unlikely to do so now - risk "dying of cold and hunger" with the return of proper Russian winter. Temperatures registered in Russia this winter since November 20 have TOPPED EVERY RECORD. Frost did not come back to Russia until earlier this week, with snow finally covering the green grass and mushrooms that all this while grew in suburban Moscow's forests.

CLIMATE CHANGE-
BANGLADESH - The Sundarbans nature reserve in Bangladesh's south-west is one of the last untouched places on Earth. But the trees in the Sundarbans have suddenly started dying. And not just that: they have started DYING IN A WAY NOBODY HAS SEEN BEFORE, from the top down. Nobody is sure what the cause is, but the country's leading scientists think the trees are dying because, in recent years, the water has turned from fresh to salty. The Sundarbans is a massive mangrove swamp, and the sea has begun encroaching. What we are seeing may be one of the first casualties of rising sea levels caused by global warming. Farmers in coastal areas who used to grow rice have switched to farming prawns, after the water in their paddy fields got too salty. Then there were the deaths of thousands of fishermen off Bangladesh last summer. The Bay of Bengal was UNUSUALLY rough. Usually, the authorities only issue a storm warning to fishermen to stay at home once or twice a year. In 2006, four warnings were issued in the space of two months. Every warning meant the fishermen lost valuable days at sea. When the last warning came, they could not afford to stay ashore and went to sea anyway. The weather in Bangladesh is going crazy. Last week, a freak tornado struck. Tornadoes occur regularly in Bangladesh - but usually only in the tornado season, in April. A tornado in February is almost unheard of. Also, there were the strange events of 2004, when the tides in the estuaries of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers stopped ebbing and flowing. The water level just stayed at high tide. The same year, the capital, Dhaka, was hit by floods so severe the ground floors of most buildings were under water, and a catfish was caught in one of the government buildings. And in 2005, the country had no winter at all. Winter never came - with serious effects on the year's potato crop. This year, too, it has not been as cold as usual. "The direction of the monsoon has changed in the last few years. The depression that brings the rain used to advance north across Bangladesh. Now it is heading west." That could have devastating implications in the event of a tropical cyclone. The rainfall is also increasingly erratic. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The entire country is basically one vast river delta, and that has always left it at the mercy of weather extremes. And this is in the most densely populated country in the world. "People always come to Bangladesh to talk about rising sea levels. Have you considered that London is the same height above sea level as most of Bangladesh? You have the Thames barrier, and we have our dykes. By the time Bangladesh is flooded, you will have lost London."

DISEASE THREATS -
Canned tuna exceeds guidelines on mercury in Canadian tests - mercury is a dangerous contaminant that can affect the heart, brain and immune system. On average, six per cent of the albacore tuna it tests fails and is pulled before it gets to grocery stores. In the recent test, thirteen per cent of the tuna tested exceeded Health Canada guidelines. Studies have shown "white" tuna (albacore) is typically higher in mercury content than "light" tuna, because it's generally a larger, older fish that has accumulated more mercury. "Clearly these tuna should not be eaten on a regular basis." In the U.S., safe consumption advice ranges from no more than one can of albacore tuna a week in some jurisdictions to none at all in others.

ODD-
FOUR-LEGGED DUCK - A RARE mutation has left an eight-day-old duckling with two nearly full-sized legs behind the two he runs on. He is doing well on a duck farm in New Forest, Hampshire, 95 miles southwest of London. "It was absolutely bizarre. I was thinking 'he's got too many legs' and I kept counting 'one, two, three, four.' He's eating and surviving so far, and he is running about with those extra legs acting like stabilizers." The mutation is rare, but cases have been recorded across the world. One duckling named Jake was born in Queensland, Australia, in 2002 with four legs but died soon after.

Monday, February 19, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - The harder you work, the luckier you get.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/18 -
5.6 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.2 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 641 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Tropical cyclone Favio was forecast to strike Madagascar this morning at category 1.


HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDONESIA - Landslides triggered by torrential rain hit two places on Indonesia's main Java island over the weekend, leaving eight people dead and six missing. Eight bodies were pulled out of the muck in a hillside village near the Central Java town of Magelang. In West Java province, rescuers have been trying since Saturday to find four miners believed to be buried in a lakeside sand pit in Sukalarang district. "Land collapsed on the lake creating a small tsunami that pulled them in. We have been searching for three days but we have not found anything." Indonesia's rainy season is at its peak in February and may continue for another two months.

SNOW / COLD -
FLORIDA - A freeze Friday night BROKE A RECORD in place since 1920, but growers in the area say it did little damage to their crops. Temperatures Friday night fell to 23 degrees at Gainesville Regional Airport, two degrees colder than 1920's previous record for the day. The dryness of the air and the lack of cloud cover have contributed to both the colder nights and milder days. The biggest losses are in peaches, which bloomed early because of the warm January. As the temperature dropped below freezing Friday, the cold damaged the new blossoms.

DISEASE THREATS-
Reports of peanut butter-borne illness on the increase - Peter Pan brand peanut butter and some batches of Wal-Mart's Great Value house brand were linked to a salmonella outbreak that has sickened at least 300 people nationwide since August. The number of those sickened is likely much higher than the official estimate. The affected jars of Peter Pan and Great Value peanut butter have a product code located on the lid of the jar that begins with the number "2111."

Sunday, February 18, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "If a man is called to be a streetsweeper, he should sweep streets even as Michelangelo painted, or Beethoven composed music, or Shakespeare composed poetry. He should sweep streets so well that all the hosts of heaven and earth will pause to say, "Here lived a great streetsweeper who did his job well." - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/17 -
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
6.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
1/16 -
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

KENYA - Residents of Moita and Ngararo villages in Transmara District fled their homes following a landslide and an earth tremor. Residents were then ordered to vacate the area until it was ascertained safe by the Government. At least 19 homes have been affected by the landslides. "The stones are hanging dangerously from exposed cliffs and these can easily pose danger to those who are grazing." Residents complained that temperatures had risen beyond normal levels in the area.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 392 nmi SW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

FREAK FOG -
INDIA - Flight operation at the Indian capital of Delhi was completely halted for nearly 100 minutes as dense fog engulfed the airport early today, affecting the schedule of more than three-dozen flights. "Fog enveloped the airport from nowhere."

WIND -
COLORADO - Winds gusting to 100 mph slashed through foothills canyons in Colorado and across the high plains of Wyoming on Friday, prompting travel warnings and cracking windshields on airplanes at Denver International Airport. SkyWest Airlines reported 14 cracked windshields on nine aircraft, while Frontier Airlines reported cracked windshields on four planes. Most planes cracked while either landing or taking off between 1:30 and 3:30 p.m. Friday as gusts of up to 50 mph were hitting the airport. The windshield on another plane cracked while it was airborne. "Only the outermost layer was affected." They're investigating why the windshields cracked with the winds. Two of Frontier's Airbus planes were in the air when their windshields cracked, while two cracked while at the gate. Frontier said it was unclear whether the high winds were to blame. "It's not exactly unusual weather for Denver. We don't know what it is... It's kind of a mystery at this point." Windshields cracked on several different makes and models of airplanes from several different airlines. None of the pilots reported flying debris. "Everybody is fairly baffled by it." High wind advisories were issued for hundreds of miles of highways.

HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
CHINA - Beijingers will celebrate their WARMEST SPRING FESTIVAL ON RECORD. The highest temperature on the eve of the festival will reach 10 degrees centigrade, making it the warmest festival eve since the station began to keep records in 1951. Experts warned citizens of the possibility of sandstorms owing to a lack of rainfall.

MASS DIE-OFFS -
Wind shifts are devastating ocean life - The delicate interplay between the oceans and atmosphere is changing with catastrophic consequences. Entire marine ecosystems have been wiped out, devastating populations of sea birds and larger marine mammals. These "dead zones" occur where there are disturbances to the nutrient-rich ocean currents, which are driven by coastal winds. Extreme marine suffocations have occurred off the west coast of the US every year for the last five years. The most intense event, which left the ocean floor littered with the carcasses of crabs, happened in 2006. It was unlike anything measured along the Oregon coast in the PAST 50 YEARS. Other coastal countries including Chile, Namibia and South Africa have also been affected. Observations along the west coast of the US suggest that the upwelling in the ocean is being disrupted, changing its timing and intensity. For example, in 2005 the upwelling was delayed which meant that the plankton blooms did not occur, leading to a collapse in fish populations. This particularly hit migrating salmon, which pass along the coast in April and May every year. An even more catastrophic event occurred in 2006 when the amount of upwelling doubled, leading to a huge influx of nutrients and a supercharged plankton bloom. When these sank to the ocean floor they stripped the water column of oxygen, creating a 3,000 sq km (1,150 sq miles) dead zone, where creatures unable to swim away suffocated en masse. Crabs, worms and sea stars all perished in the anoxic water. The event was so severe that the researchers fear that marine life cannot return to the area. "In previous years, fish that have escaped the low-oxygen area appear to have returned once the oxygen was renewed. This year may be different, however, because unlike earlier years, the living habitat was also suffocated." Researchers believe the cause of these events was changes in the intensity of the coastal winds, perhaps brought about by global warming. "What we know from the climate change models is that the land will warm more than the sea." It is this difference in temperature and pressure that drives the winds. "As you intensify that gradient - that will drive the stronger winds." "Climate models predict increasing uncertainty with wild fluctuations. We should expect more surprises." (photo)

Conservationists estimate 170 frog species have become extinct in the past two decades, and fear another 1900 are on the way out. Many have been killed off by the deadly chytrid fungus, which is thought to have spread from Africa to every continent except Antarctica. Faced with the advance of the deadly disease, as well as habitat loss, global warming and pollution, frogs and other amphibians are in serious decline. "It's been responsible for huge population crashes and it's still spreading. Very few species are resistant to it, and it's becoming more and more widespread." Recently the fungus has been recorded in frogs in Japan, where it was identified last month, and in Sardinia. In Central and South America it has wreaked devastation, with an estimated two thirds of some species wiped out. Amphibians form an important element of the world's ecological biomass, especially in tropical zones, where they are so numerous they play an important role in controlling insects and bugs that can cause diseases in people. Scientists have called for every zoo, aquarium and botanical garden in the world to rescue at least one species of frog. They urged each institution to provide a home for 500 or more frogs to build up a disease-free population. The captive frogs will provide a population reservoir that can be reintroduced to the wild once their natural habitat is safe from the disease.

SPACE WEATHER -
The threat of an asteroid hitting the Earth is being taken more and more seriously as more and more NEOs are found. At the moment, Nasa is monitoring 127 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that have a possibility of hitting the Earth. In the US, Congress has charged Nasa with the task of starting a more detailed search for life-threatening space rocks. "Congress has said that Nasa's efforts to date are not sufficient to the threat." Nasa estimates that there are about 20,000 potentially threatening asteroids yet to be discovered. The UN is drafting a treaty to establish who should be in charge in the event of an asteroid heading towards Earth, who would pay for relief efforts and the policies that should be adopted. In addition, it would set out possible plans to deflect the object. "This has gone from being an esoteric statistical argument to talking about real events."
Astronomers are monitoring an asteroid named Apophis, which is about 140 metres long, which has a 1 in 45,000 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2036. An asteroid that size could take out an entire city or region.

DISEASE THREATS -
TWO ALERTS:
-The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is warning consumers not to use certain jars of Earth's Best Organic 2 Apple Peach Barley Wholesome Breakfast baby food because of the risk of contamination with Clostridium botulinum, a bacterium which can cause botulism, a life-threatening illness or death.
-The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has become aware that a number of Americans who placed orders for specific drug products over the Internet (Ambien, Xanax, Lexapro, and Ativan), instead received a product that, according to preliminary analysis, contains haloperidol, a powerful anti-psychotic drug. Reports show several consumers in the United States have sought emergency medical treatment for symptoms such as difficulty in breathing, muscle spasms and muscle stiffness after ingesting the suspect product. Haloperidol can cause muscle stiffness and spasms, agitation, and sedation. The origin of these tablets is unknown but the packages were postmarked in Greece. Identifying the vendors is difficult because of the deceptive practices of many commercial outlets on the Internet. (Photographs of the tablets in question and the shipping packages.)

Friday, February 16, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "Happiness is good health and a bad memory” — Ingrid Bergman
[Having a bad memory is especially important if you didn't get what you were hoping for on Valentine's Day / your birthday / last Christmas - chose one or all of the above!]

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/15 -
5.4 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

AUSTRALIA - The impact of an earthquake which shook Western Australia's central coast overnight felt like a truck slamming into a house, according to a woman living near the quake's epicentre. Geoscience Australia located the 5.2-magnitude earthquake to waters off Shark Bay, 800km north of Perth. The quake caused no structural damage but was THE BIGGEST RECORDED IN THE AREA IN 50 YEARS. "On average, Australia has an earthquake of this size or larger every two years and they can occur anywhere in Australia." In 1989, a 5.6- magnitude earthquake at Newcastle, on the New South Wales central coast, killed 13 people and injured 160. Australia's largest known onshore earthquake occcured in 1941. It was a 6.9 magnitude tremor at Meeberrie, 250km southeast of Shark Bay. No one was reported killed or injured by that quake and damage was minimal because of its isolated location, but its effect was felt throughout most of the state.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - White Island about to blow? - There have been more tremors at White Island off Whakatane. Equipment monitoring the crater lake shows seismic activity at the island has increased over the last three weeks. Shakes on Friday and the increasing lake temperature has scientists on volcano watch. They warn visitors to the island to be aware of the dangers, but there is no evidence of a full-scale lava eruption at this stage. The lake is now 74 degrees Celsius, which has caused rapid evaporation of water and the lake's level to drop six metres. Several hot pools and waterways on the island have begun to dry up. The volcano has released an increased amount of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over recent months. None of the normal tests are giving much indication about what exactly is going on and scientists will keep monitoring the volcano. For now, the alert level is at one and will only be increased once volcanic eruptions start. White Island last erupted in 2000.

RUSSIA - Klyuchevskoi volcano has begun erupting on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's Far East. The eruption does not immediately threaten the peninsula's settlements, but volcanic ash, consisting of magma particles with a diameter of up to 2 millimeters (.078 inches), can poison land and water. Ash emissions and trails can also present a danger to aircraft. At about 11 a.m. Moscow time (8 a.m. GMT), experts at the institute's monitoring station observed a pulsating glow above the giant volcano's crater, indicating that fresh magma was rising to the surface. The ash trail from the eruption has already spread 35 kilometers (21 miles) to the southwest of Klyuchevskoi. Volcanologists predicted the volcano's imminent eruption three weeks ago. Klyuchevskoi's last eruption took place in January-May 2005.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone FAVIO was 203 nmi ESE of Plaisance, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ANGOLA - Fresh flood threat - Thousands of villagers have been displaced and hundreds remain stranded in isolated areas as floods ravage eastern Angola near the Zambian border. Heavy rains have caused havoc in several southern African countries during recent weeks. In January, torrential rainfall in Angola's capital, Luanda, left more than 75 people dead. Poor access has threatened rescue efforts for these latest floods, in the remote province of Moxico. More than 400 houses have been destroyed and 9,000 people displaced in the latest flooding, caused by rising water levels on the River Zambezi. Attempts to help those who have been displaced and stranded have been hampered by the terrible condition of roads and bridges throughout Moxico. Landslides have also been reported. Aid organisations now fear that many of the villagers are also at risk from malaria, with three deaths already confirmed. The local hospital says it lacks vital supplies to treat the sick. These floods are a particularly cruel twist of fate for many villagers in the area. They have only recently returned home from Zambia, where they fled for safety during Angola's 27-year civil war.

SNOW / COLD -
RUSSIA - A snow cyclone approaching from Russia’s Far Eastern Primorsky (Maritime) territory the Sakhalin and Kurile islands has caused closure of all airports and the Vanino-Kholmsk ferry service on the islands. A powerful storm has affected the Tatar Strait through which major ferry boats sail, and motor ships carrying passengers and cargoes have had to find shelter from bad weather at the Khabarovsk territory coast line.

ILLINOIS - a veteran weather observer professed amazement Wednesday over the rain, ice and snow that all hit the area one right after another Tuesday. “As long as I’ve lived in Charleston, since 1958, I’ve never seen that combination. I’ve never seen it piled up in the same storm.”

VERMONT - A new 24-hour SNOWFALL RECORD was set yesterday, when Burlington received 25.3 inches. The previous record was set on Jan. 14, 1934, when the city received 23.1 inches. A ferocious nor'easter lived up to its advanced billing Wednesday, belting the state with record snowfall and biting winds. The winter that mostly wasn't for December and January now boasts one of the biggest snowstorms on Vermont's books. "We went from the early season famine to a full-blown winter feast. This is just phenomenal." The storm was Burlington's BIGGEST FEBRUARY SNOWSTORM SINCE 1883. With a RECORD 17.4 inches of snowfall in the Queen City at 6 p.m., it surpassed the previous February snowstorm record of 16.8 inches set in 1995.

HEAT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE-
It was by far the HOTTEST JANUARY EVER. The broken record was fueled by a waning El Nino and a gradually warming world. Records on the planet's temperature have been kept since 1880. Spurred on by unusually warm Siberia, Canada, northern Asia and Europe, the world's land areas were 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than a normal January. That didn't just nudge past the old record set in 2002, but broke that mark by 0.81 degrees, which meteorologists said is a lot, since such records often are broken by hundredths of a degree at a time. "That's PRETTY UNUSUAL FOR A RECORD TO BE BROKEN BY THAT MUCH." The scientists went beyond their normal doublechecking and took the UNUSUAL step of running computer climate models "just to make sure that what we're seeing was real." From one standpoint it is not unusual to have a new record because we've become accustomed to having records broken." But January was A BIGGER JUMP THAN THE WORLD HAS SEEN IN ABOUT 10 YEARS. The temperature of the world's land and water combined — the most effective measurement — was 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, breaking the old record by more than one-quarter of a degree. Ocean temperatures alone didn't set a record. In the Northern Hemisphere, land areas were 4.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal for January, breaking the old record by about three-quarters of a degree. But the United States was about normal. The nation was 0.94 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for January, ranking only the 49th warmest since 1895. Siberia was on average 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. Eastern Europe had temperatures averaging 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Canada on average was more than 5 degrees warmer than normal. Larger increases in temperature farther north, compared to mid-latitudes, is "sort of the global warming signal." It is what climate scientists predict happens, and will happen more frequently, with global warming. Temperature records break regularly with global warming, but "with a little bit of El Nino thrown in, you don't just break records, you smash records." As much of the United States already knows, February doesn't seem as unusually warm as January was. "Even with global warming, you're not going to keep that cold air bottled up in Alaska and Canada forever."

MASSIVE FISH KILL -
SCOTAND - Millions of fish have been washed ashore at St Andrews Bay following a FREAK North Sea storm lasting several days. The fish were found over a five-mile stretch of beach, including West Sands, one of the top-rated in Scotland. Staff at St Andrews Aquarium have been trying to save some of the creatures which include five species of crab, plaice and flounder, starfish, scallops and an octopus. Around 80% of the creatures have died. Another likely factor is the fact that the tide is not rising as far as in previous years, leaving the creatures stranded on the beach and at the mercy of seagulls. The sealife had been washed ashore over a three-day period. "It is essentially A COMPLETE FREAK OF NATURE. Everyone that has talked about this seems to think it is down to oil tanker pollution but it is not. It is like a natural disaster. I have seen this happen once but it was on a tiny scale and there were a few animals washed up."

Thursday, February 15, 2007 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~ Jan L. A. van de Snepscheut

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/14 -
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 NORTHERN PERU
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.8 EASTER ISLAND REGION

TAIWAN - Internet connections were restored to normal in Hong Kong Wednesday, 50 days after an undersea earthquake off Taiwan severely damaged undersea cables. Six out of seven submarine cables coming in and out of Hong Kong were snapped by the December 26 earthquake, causing severe disruption to e-mail and internet connections. Services were gradually improved but it took until Wednesday for Hong Kong's Telecommunications Authority to announce that the repairs to the cables were complete. Singapore, Thailand and other regional cities and countries were also badly affected by the quake but Hong Kong's reliance on the undersea cables made the impact on the city of 6.8 million worse.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - Scientists on Tuesday warned of increased activity at Ecuador's Tungurahua volcano, which erupted violently last year killing at least four people and leaving thousands homeless. The volcano began shooting a 2-kilometer (1.2-mile) plume of ash into the sky Monday night. Ecuadorean officials have not said whether they plan to evacuate the area around Tungurahua.

MONTSERRAT - More residents face evacuation in Montserrat - Recently imposed mandatory evacuation boundaries may be extended, affecting additional residents living on the borders of Belham Valley. Computer modeling revealed that additional areas in the present safe zone could be impacted by pyroclastic flows and surges. The size of Montserrat’s Soufriére Hills Volcano now stands at 1,065 meters above sea level, containing some 250 million cubic meters of volcanic material, the LARGEST IT HAS EVER BEEN. This new RECORD IN DOME SIZE surpasses the previous record size, the 2003 dome at 240 million cubic meters. That dome subsequently collapsed, converting areas from south woodlands to Salem and the surrounding environment into a disaster area due to the abundance of ash deposited in these areas. This 2003 eruption resulted in a six month clean up campaign. (photos)

NEW ZEALAND - The possibility of multiple volcanic eruptions in Whangarei may need to be considered in light of new research by Auckland University. The research shows at least five of Auckland's volcanoes were born at the same time, and they could erupt simultaneously. While the research did not extend to Whangarei, Whangarei's volcanic field is similar to Auckland's, and multiple eruptions within a short space of time is possible. The likelihood of renew