Tuesday, October 31, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why is it a bad idea to write a letter on an empty stomach?
Because it's much better to write on paper.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/30 -
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 SOUTHERN PERU

CHINA - earthquakes jolted central China's Hubei Province over the weekend, affecting more than 50,000 local residents and causing more than 9.8 million yuan (US $1.23 million) loss. An earthquake measuring 4.7 magnitude on the Richter scale hit the province's Suizhou City on Friday evening. More than 50 aftershocks have been detected, and the strongest was 4.2 magnitude. The tremors destroyed 13,981 rooms and forced 5,860 people to evacuate.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 204 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

Typhoon Cimaron , which formed Saturday over the eastern Filipino coast, is moving north and west toward Vietnam packing high winds and rough seas, set to make landfall in central areas November 1. The storm is expected to continue moving northwesterly at 15kph over the next 24 hours, and warnings have been issued to all seafaring vessels in the area. The British Tropical Storm Risks center predicted the typhoon would weaken as it hit central Vietnam, possibly Quang Ngai province, on November 1. But data supplied by the JTWC still graded the storm as a “super” typhoon.

HEAT / DROUGHT -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney has experienced its DRIEST OCTOBER IN FOUR YEARS because of the El Nino phenomenon, experts say.
A major dam supplying Melbourne has dipped to its LOWEST LEVEL EVER.

CLIMATE CHANGE-
Doomsday scenario paints a grim picture of what the world will look like only 50 years from now if politicians, industries and citizens alike across the world do not take action now to reverse the trend of climate change. According to a report, business as usual will in the worst case scenario cost the world up to 20 percent of the global economy, it will make at least 200 million people "climate change refugees" and will make around 40 percent of the globe's animals extinct. "Unless we act now the consequences – disastrous as they are – will be irreversible. It will not happen in "some science fiction future, but in our lifetime."

INDIA - For the past two decades, Arjun Jana has lived the life of an “environmental refugee” in Sagar island. He was forced to leave home in Lohachara island, one of the many islets on the Sundarban delta, when the surging sea waters swamped his farmland. Now 75, Jana’s migration to Sagar brought him to safer land. But it also made him poorer for the rest of his life. There’s no old-age allowance from the local administration for either Jana or his wife. And apart from a piece of land allotted to him years ago, and his thatched hut, the couple has nothing that they can call “ours”. “The sea had been eating away our island with every passing day. And then, one day, it engulfed everything that had remained untouched till then — our home, fields, the cattle… everything.” Sagar Colony, Bankim Nagar, Chakhaldubi — these are now home to most of these migrants. Farmers once, they are now petty labours, devoid of any civic amenity. Even drinking water is precious in these refugee colonies. Lack of opportunities, growing population and a consistent encroachment of the island by outsiders to set up hotels has meant further pressure. But what’s even more worrying is the unseen threat — ingression of salt waters that is slowly breaking down a dozen islands in the region. Sagar is one of them. “Their islands have vanished. There are many more, thousands of people, who will turn into environmental refugees in the next decade. Where will they all go when more islands go under water? To Sagar? To Kolkata? Nobody seems to have a solution.”

Monday, October 30, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - How is it one careless match can start a forest fire, but it takes a whole box to start a campfire?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/29 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 41 nmi NW of Baguio City, Philippines.

THE PHILIPPINES was hit by ONE OF 'STRONGEST TYPHOONS EVER'. Typhoon Cimaron blew over the northern Philippines today, felling trees, toppling power lines, blasting roofs off homes and leaving at least three people dead. Cimaron, which made landfall late Sunday, is the second typhoon to hit the northern Philippines in as many months and was packing maximum winds of 175 km/h and gusts of up to 210 km/h. It was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam late today.

INDIA - Even as Orissa remembered the unprecedented devastation caused by the super cyclone on Monday seven years ago, a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on the Andhra Pradesh coast. The depression formed over the west central Bay. The system was likely to move in a northerly direction and cross the Andhra Coast between Bapatla and Kakinada. The forecast is for the likelihood of rain or thunder-shower at many places over south Orissa and a few places over the northern districts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the open sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - Torrential rain paralysed normal life in several parts of Tamil Nadu, particularly Chennai and Nagapattinam districts, while the death toll in rain-related incidents since the onset of north-east monsoon rose to 35 on Sunday. Rain inundated most low-lying areas of the state capital and over 65,000 people have been shifted to safer places. Most of the deaths occurred due to house collapse incidents. The majority of the fishermen, who ventured into the sea braving heavy rains, have returned.

SOMALIA - Heavy rain in Mogadishu left 17 dead in the Somali capital overnight, bringing the death toll to 27 as a result of floods across the shattered African nation in the past week. The victims, mainly children and the elderly, died after their mud-walled houses collapsed under heavy rain that pummelled several Mogadishu districts late on Saturday, leaving hundreds homeless and destroying property of unknown value. Residents said that at least 61 houses were destroyed by the heavy seven-hour downpour. In August, thousands of Mogadishu residents were forced to flee to higher ground by flooding which destroyed dozens of makeshift homes. Last week, heavy rains also killed at least 10 people in the country's southern Gedo region, which was recently hit by a scorching drought that put millions on people on the verge of starvation.

WIND -
NORTHEASTERN U.S. STATES - Hundreds of thousands of people in the northeastern United States lacked power Sunday as utility crews scrambled to clear power lines of tree branches toppled by a windstorm. Heavy rains and winds clocked at 80 kilometres per hour knocked over power lines in Maine, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland and New York state on Saturday. The area most seriously affected was Long Island, N.Y., where nearly 230,000 people were left without electricity. Crews had managed to restore power to many of those by Sunday afternoon, but then winds knocked down more wires.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
Reports predict a global warming deluge - The Netherlands, Bangladesh and several Pacific Islands could be underwater within 50 years and the environment of many countries, particularly Australia with the Great Barrier Reef, will simply be wrecked. "If you go ahead say 50 years, and we continue to emit CO2 at 2.5 to three parts per million, then essentially it's all over. When we hit 550 parts per million, that's when Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Pacific islands and large parts of large countries and many countries in the region are simply devastated...If we take the window of opportunity in the next 10 years, we can have a substantial impact and we can avoid the scientific outcome that is coming down the track."

A new report warns global warming will cost more than either world wars or the Great Depression. Leaked portions of the report warn that global warming could cost trillions of dollars to address. The report concluded that early action would be far cheaper than waiting until the full effects of climate change were felt. "Perhaps five, 10 or 20 times cheaper."

Sunday, October 29, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "America is never wholly herself unless she is engaged in high moral principle. We as a people have such a purpose today. It is to make kinder the face of the Nation and gentler the face of the world." - George Bush, inaugural address - 1989.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/28 -
5.4 NICARAGUA
10/29 -
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 167 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - Tropical storm Paeng (international codename Cimaron) has intensified into a typhoon, increasing its threat to Central and Northern Luzon. Residents in areas where storm signals have been hoisted were warned against possible flashfloods and landslides especially those who live along the eastern coast of Luzon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
UNITED KINGDOM - Hours of heavy rain saw the WORST FLOODING IN YEARS hit Sutherland Thursday, bringing the county to a grinding halt. "River levels have risen quickly due to the persistent rain and more is forecast."

ETHIOPIA - A river burst its banks in southeastern Ethiopia following heavy rains in highland Ethiopia, killing 15 people and displacing more than 2,000. Flooding typically occurs in Ethiopia's lowlands after heavy rains in the June-September season drench the highlands.

SRI LANKA - At least six people have been killed by torrential rain and flooding in the southern and western parts of the country.

SNOW / COLD -
PAKISTAN - One officer of the Pakistan army and 2 Jawans were killed and 16 jawans were injured after an avalanche hit an army post located in Baltar at a glacier close to Skardu.

AUSTRALIA - A fast-moving cold snap from the Antarctic has swept across south eastern Australia sending temperatures plummeting and causing snow and hail to fall across three states. Tasmania copped the brunt of the chilly weather last night, with snow settling in hills 400m above sea level and falls reported in some beachside suburbs. Launceston experienced its COLDEST OCTOBER NIGHT ON RECORD at -1C while temperatures on Mt Wellington near Hobart dropped to -6C, not quite reaching the coldest ever October evening of -7.7C. In Victoria hail fell across the southern parts of the state with snow reported at 600m in Mt Dandenong, Mt Macedon and Kinglake. "It's moved very quickly from a very long way south." Weather forecasters are predicting even colder temperatures today and say tonight may meet the city's October record low of 0C recorded in 1889. Heavy frosts are expected and fruit farmers have been warned to keep an eye on their crops. The weather is a reminder that summer is still some time off despite a recent spate of hot weather. Two weeks ago the Tasmanian weather bureau was issuing extreme fire danger alerts as Hobart recorded 33.1C, the city's third warmest October day ever. Victoria had also experienced a mild to warm month with high than average temperatures. "Relative to the higher temperatures we've seen this (cold snap) does come as a bit of a shock."

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney's drinking water is under threat from a bushfire burning out of control close to Warragamba Dam. The fire in the Blue Mountains is expected to worsen in the next few days with the possibility of hot, windy weather set to hamper firefighting efforts. About 100 firefighters today were winched into a remote area five kilometres from Lake Burragorang, part of the Warragamba Dam catchment which supplies 80 per cent of the city's drinking water. The NSW Rural Fire Service says it fears debris and ash from the fire could clog the filtration system at the dam. The blaze started on Wednesday with a lightning strike and has burnt 3,000 hectares of bushland.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
Africa is the continent probably most vulnerable to climate change and the one that faces the greatest challenges to adapt to those changes. For millions of people in the Horn of Africa and the east of the continent, the success or failure of rains due over the next two months will be critical. The rains – or lack of them – will determine if 2007 will offer the prospect of recovery from the serious drought of 2005-06 or if it will be another year of desperately struggling to survive. Whatever happens to the rains, Africa is already undergoing big environmental changes. Although the climates of Africa have always been erratic, the latest scientific research, together with the on-the-ground experience of non-governmental agencies, indicates new and dangerous extremes, continual warming and more unpredictable weather patterns. “A huge gap is emerging between awareness of global warming and action to deal with it. We’re behaving like a group of people agreed that the building around us is on fire, but unwilling to reach for the alarm or the fire extinguisher. Africa’s precarious position on the front line of climate change reveals the complacency of rich countries whose greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and who have failed to deliver on even their current pitifully small promises of financial help. Waking up may be hard to do, but the alternative is having the house burn around us as we sleep.”

Mass movements of peoples across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a new study suggests. The spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees is raised by the study, which says that the main cause will be climate-induced threats from water, or the lack of it – from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges, and from sea-level rise. There are already an estimated 25mn million environmental refugees around the world. Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the USA. One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought. The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes. In Nigeria, 1,350 square miles of land are turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.

Friday, October 27, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Change is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be." - Isaac Asimov

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/26 -
5.9 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.8 SICILY, ITALY
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES

U.S. seismologists have found earthquake swarms are not just clustered around volcanoes or geothermal regions but can occur in any seismically active area. An earthquake swarm consists of several moderate, related seismic events occurring over hours or days. "Swarminess" in volcanic and geothermal zones might be driven by hot water or magma pushing fault seams apart or acting to reduce friction and enhancing the seismic activity in those areas. But away from volcanic and thermal regions, it is unclear what triggers swarms that don't include main shocks and aftershocks. It is possible swarms are driven by tectonic movements so gradual that they take many minutes to weeks to unfold, but are still more rapid than normal plate tectonic motions.

A full moon might have triggered the December 26 Indian Ocean undersea earthquake. Researchers monitored tremors and collected tidal data along the Java/Sumatra trench, between October 2004 and August 2005. They found that major quakes were 86 per cent more likely around new and full moons, when tides are at their greatest. “At new and full moons the biggest mass of water is being loaded and unloaded at the plate boundary. That might be the final push that initiates a quake.” The study carries significance as another study recently found that rain can also trigger quakes.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - The Karymsky volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia's Far East has increased its activity, spewing ash emissions up to an altitude of around 5,000 meters (16,400 feet). Experts said a total of 450 minor quakes have been registered over the past 24 hours near Karymsky. The volcano erupted in February following an 11-year period of normal activity. Ash emissions and about 230 minor tremors were reported last week. Experts say the volcano's activity has been accelerating. This year more than 1,200 people, including 542 children, were evacuated from the north of the Kamchatka peninsula after a series of earthquakes. The first 7.8-magnitude quake, the strongest in the Koryak Autonomous Area in the north of the peninsular since 1900, injured 31 people on April 21.

PHILIPPINES - The restive Bulusan volcano spewed mud and ash Thursday for the second time this week in the central Philippines.

SICILY - Experts swooped on Mount Etna on Thursday after the volcano sprang back into life. The volcanologists examined a fresh lava flow on the south side of the volcano, coming out of a fissure that opened up at the weekend at a height of 2,000 metres. Lava is now flowing from three craters on the mountain accompanied by blasts, black smoke and ash. The new craters, however, are far from any inhabited areas, experts stressed. Serious volcanic activity occurred in the summer of 2001. Viewers around the world were held spellbound by the beauty of the spectacle, which experts said was ONE OF THE MOST UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX ERUPTIONS IN THREE CENTURIES.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 18E was 189 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical storm CIMARON was 438 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical depression PAUL was 142 nmi NNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical storm Paul has hit the coast of the Mexican mainland after skirting around the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. It came ashore near La Reforma on the western coast, after being downgraded from hurricane status. Paul could still cause flash flooding after it dumps rain on the Sierra Madre mountains, forecasters say. Tropical storm Paul has reportedly killed two people. A 65-year-old American man was swept off a beach at Los Cabos by a wave and is presumed dead. A 23-year-old Mexican fisherman is also said to have died on Monday after slipping off wet rocks. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Sinaloa on the western mainland.

RUSSIA - a storm warning has been announced to the fleet over the approach of a cyclone towards the Kamchatka Peninsula southern coast. “The cyclone is approaching Kamchatka from the south and will begin to affect the peninsula next night. The atmospheric vortex will move towards the northwest part of the Pacific and on October 28 its influence on the peninsula will subside.” Meteorologists say that winds with force up to 20 metres per second and a storm are expected in the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk and Pacific areas adjacent to the southern coast of the peninsula due to the cyclone approach. Sleet precipitation is also possible in the Kamchatka region.

SNOW -
COLORADO - A fall storm hit parts of Colorado with as much as 25 inches of snow on Thursday, setting off avalanches and rockslides and closing roads and schools. “Actually, it’s not unusual for us to get snowfalls at this time of year. What is UNUSUAL IS THE AMOUNTS, and we are seeing RECORD SNOWFALL for the month of October.”

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
CALIFORNIA - A wind-driven wildfirenear Palm Springs engulfed a fire engine Thursday, killing four firefighters, and up to 400 people were trapped in a recreational vehicle park when flames blocked the only road out, officials said. The firefighters were trying to protect a house as hot Santa Ana winds drove flames through the desert hills northwest of Palm Springs and forced hundreds of people from their homes.

AUSTRALIA is unlikely to receive drought-breaking rain before autumn next year, according to the National Water Commission's latest outlook.

Thursday, October 26, 2006 -

Why was Santa's little helper depressed?
Because he had low elf esteem.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/25 -
5.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 HONDURAS
5.0 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
SICILY - Mount Etna, Europe's largest volcano, continued erupting overnight to Thursday with a 2,000 metre-high lava flow streaming into the valley below. The glowing rock mass was flowing down the southerly face of the mountain. It was unclear whether a new crater had been opened or whether an old one had become active. The volcano started erupting on Sunday after a long period of dormancy. There have been several lava flows, but the eruption poses no risk to people in the region, according to the authorities. [There has also been a 5.7 quake in Sicily this morning.]

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm PAUL was 56 nmi WNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1257 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier is moving closer to Fiji earlier than expected, the weather office has warned. "The cyclone poses no direct threat to Fiji; its persistent movement will bring the cyclone closer to the group than earlier anticipated". The damaging gale force winds extend to 180km from the centre. Some parts of the country will experience strong winds as a result. The cyclone had consequently become a greater threat to Fiji than Vanuatu but "luckily the system has entered into unfavourable environmental conditions and is expected to weaken before getting within close proximity of the Fiji Group".

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PORTUGAL - A river burst its banks and swept a packed school bus off the road Wednesday after a night of heavy storms that authorities said caused the death of one person. A bus taking 52 children aged between seven and 14 to a school in central Portugal was knocked into a ditch by the current from a river that flooded surrounding countryside. Emergency workers up to their waists in fast-flowing, muddy water formed a human chain and pulled the children and three adults from the bus. In nearby Pombal, an elderly bedridden woman died when her home flooded. A woman in the same area was evacuated by helicopter after flood waters reached the first floor of her rural home. The fire department was also helping rescue stranded livestock. A school in the same area was evacuated midmorning when another swollen river burst its banks and flood levels started to rise. Three towns in central Portugal were on flood alert as river levels rose and dams approached their limits. The Civil Protection Service said it responded to 679 incidents of flooding, 335 fallen trees and 19 landslides. Dozens of roads were reported closed, mostly in central and northern areas. Trains stopped running on part of the country's main north-south rail line between Lisbon and Porto because of flooding. Trains in the southern Algarve region also ground to a halt after a tree fell on a power line and cut the electricity supply. On Monday, a German couple died in the Madeira Islands when their car was swept from a cliff and into the sea by a mudslide that occurred after days of heavy rain.

CANADA - A state of emergency has been called in a small northwestern Newfoundland community amid safety concerns, after an unexplainable landslide dumped soil into the ocean. A team of engineers was brought into Daniel's Harbour to assess the risk after a landslide last Friday morning. "As of yet, there is no idea what precipitated the landslide. It was not raining." The landslide sent between 20,000 and 30,000 cubic metres of soil, which amounts to about 2,000 dump-truck loads, into the ocean. "There were houses on the edge of the cliffside and now I guess they are even closer to the cliffside." (photo)

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRIA - The temperature in Austria in general and Vienna in particular has been the WARMEST FOR THE PAST 35 YEARS. The temperature in Vienna is still above 20 degrees Celsius, which is ABNORMAL this time of the year. People are still sitting in open air cafes and public parks to make the best of this UNUSUALLY WARM weather. Meanwhile, the meteorological bureau predicted a continuation of this weather pattern and forecast temperatures close to 26 degrees Celsius by the end of the current month. "The usual temperature for this time of the year is around 10 degrees Celsius." Weather experts blame this unusually warm weather on warm wind blowing from South Western Europe, specifically from North Africa. Austria's weather was almost never above 30 degrees. But this year it broke the rule and went above 30 for quite some time, specifically in the village of Villach, where it reached 34 degrees on Sept 4. The weather for September was sometimes hotter than in August. Last year's weather also displayed some UNUSUAL thunder and lightning patterns, and devastating floods.

ENGLAND - Plants and flowers across Oxfordshire have been tricked into a second bloom as summery weather extends into the autumn months. Gardeners across the county are just as confused as the flora, with trees sprouting spring blossom and flowers such as roses and dahlias continuing to appear well beyond their expected season. "Normally everything's gone by now. The begonias have probably lasted six weeks longer this year." This is Oxfordshire's LONGEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1689, with record temperatures nationally in July and September. Meteorologists warned that fears about FREAK weather conditions caused by global warming could soon outstrip gardeners' delight at late-blooming plants.

UNUSUAL WEATHER SEASON -
ARIZONA - Valley had longer, wetter, and earlier monsoon - Phoenix reported a 75-day monsoon and considerably higher levels of rainfall across the state for 2006 in comparison to the average 55-day monsoon with limited rainfall. In the city of Tucson, about 100 miles southwest of Safford, rainfall during monsoon exceeded 10 inches. This level of rainfall hasn’t occurred since 1983. Last year, the monsoon started on July 18. This year, however, monsoon began almost a month earlier, on June 28 in Safford. Phoenix reported a stretch in the monsoon to Sept. 30. A large monsoon storm in August blew out newly installed calverts in Noon Creek because of massive amounts of water from rainfall. In the month of July, the mountain received more than 7.5 inches of rain at Columbine and was followed by more than 6 inches of rain in August. From the end of June to mid-September, the rainfall was reportedly at 16.65 inches on the mountain. Rainfall and other UNUSUAL WEATHER is still occurring well into October. In the east part of the Gila Valley, the month of September hit a RECORD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES. “We had a very cool September with an average mean of 70 degrees with the low temperatures, and that broke a record from data recorded since 1948.” September is usually ten degrees warmer than this year’s average high of 84 degrees.

ITALY - The high quality of this year's grape production was in a way a surprise, given the UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN which at times seemed as if the seasons had changed places". "We had summer heat in the spring and almost autumn weather in August."

Wednesday, October 25, 2006 -

Where does a bird go when it loses it's tail?
To a retail store.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/24 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

WYOMING - A swarm of more than 70 small earthquakes shook the ground near Old Faithful geyser earlier this month. The largest was a magnitude 2.4, barely enough to be felt. The swarm of 74 quakes lasted several hours Oct. 14. The tight cluster of earthquakes was moderate compared with others in Yellowstone's past, including one in April 2004 in which more than 400 earthquakes were recorded over three days. "It piques our curiosity, but it's not out of the range of normal behavior." The earthquakes were more likely caused by the underground movement of hot water and gas, rather than the migration of magma.

A spate of rain is all it takes to set off some earthquakes. That's what a team of German geologists has discovered after monitoring swarms of tiny tremors in the mountains of Bavaria. The rise in water pressure within porous rocks as rain soaks into the ground can start quakes on hair-trigger faults. "Tiny changes can have big effects." "In most places, the shallow, brittle crust is close to failure. The effect of rain could be just enough to send it over the edge." But for deeper earthquakes, the water could take many years to penetrate, making it hard to be sure about cause and effect.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm PAUL was 64 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1302 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

Hurricane Paul weakened to a tropical storm Tuesday, but lashed Mexico's Baja California peninsula with rain and winds today while high waves washed a US tourist from a beach resort. A large wave swept away the US tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. He is missing and presumed dead. The storm was about 210km southwest of Los Cabos and was expected to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa. Sinaloa state, an important agricultural area, took a hit from Hurricane Lane last month. Lane, which killed three people, seriously damaged tomato crops in the state, helping push inflation in Mexico to its highest monthly rate in six years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
GUATEMALA - At least six persons died Tuesday, including a child, from a landslide off a mountain that buried a village of the La Democracia municipality. Pouring rains over the last few days provoked the landslide, leaving another six people injured and eight not accounted for, all belonging to the same family. The rains also provoked road interruptions, making it difficult to reach several communities in the border with Mexico. The rise of at least seven rivers in the south of the country flooded 40 villages, leaving 10 thousand homeless.

SOUTH KOREA - People in Kangwon Province yesterday suffered damage from heavy rain and strong winds in weather that was UNUSUAL for this time of year. Heavy rain warnings and alerts were issued in the province. Hyangnobong peak received 252 millimeters of rainfall; Misiryong, 260 millimeters; Sokcho, 201 millimeters; and Kosong, 87 millimeters. The rainfall was the LARGEST RECORDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCTOBER in the regions. Winds with a speed of 20 meters per second also struck the region, and strong wind warnings were issued. Trees and signboards on many streets were blown down. A dozen fishing vessels that were docked at harbors broke loose and many sank. High wave warnings were issued for western and eastern coastal areas, and mountainous regions in the central peninsula had gusts of wind, hailstones, thunder and lightning. Other parts of the nation also had 20-100 millimeters of rain, a great amount for autumn, from Sunday through yesterday. The rainfall relieved a drought that has lasted more than two months. "Although the mercury fell, [the temperature] is still higher than that of average years, as it has been too high this fall. But people are advised to limit their risk of catching a cold due to the sudden large temperature changes," a weatherman said.

SNOW / COLD -
INDIA - UNUSUAL autumn showers over the weekend have caused the temperature in the Himachal Pradesh capital to plummet to a RECORD LOW Monday, making it the COLDEST OCTOBER DAY IN 33 YEARS. Shimla recorded a maximum temperature of 11 degrees Celsius and a minimum of six degrees Monday. Normally October is marked by clear blue skies and the temperature here hovers between 19 degrees and 25 degrees. But heavy rains last week set the mercury to decrease as icy winds lashed the town. The higher reaches in the state have been receiving snowfall while the mid and lower hills have been getting rain and hail.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - A fire that has raged for almost seven weeks is one of 30 burning throughout the Top End, making this year's BUSHFIRE SEASON ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD. A senior fire control officer has not seen anything like it during his 17 years on the job, and says 2006 has been tough on the Northern Territory. "The fire weather has been especially extreme this season, the winds and the dry nature of the vegetation have created most of the problem. In the last five years we've had 12 to 15 extreme fire danger days and this year there has been 31."

Tuesday, October 24, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why doesn't glue stick to the inside of the bottle?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/23 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.6 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
6.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

HAWAII - One week after Hawaii's biggest earthquake in 23 years, damage estimates are soaring, and a review is underway of how state, emergency and utility officials responded. Initial estimates after the magnitude-6.7 and 6.0 quakes Oct. 15, were less than $10 million, but the figure surpassed $100 million by the end of the week as damage to hotels, roads, a harbor and homes was discovered. More than 100 aftershocks followed the back-to-back earthquakes, including one that measured 3.4 Saturday. Workers began draining two 50-million-gallon reservoirs Friday after inspectors found water leaking from holes caused by the quakes. "We will never know how close we came to a major disaster." Meanwhile, debate continued over initial responses to the earthquakes. An Emergency Broadcast System alert from Honolulu County Civil Defense was sent one hour after the first quake, which struck at 7:07 a.m., but it was not broadcast because stations did not activate a switch for the message to come through. Two hours after the first quake, the state Civil Defense got the first message to residents. By then, several radio stations were broadcasting reports from listeners and other sources. "There was a major failure somewhere. By 8 a.m., everyone knew what had happened, but no one officially was telling us."

PHILIPPINES - The Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said on Monday it has recorded 700 aftershocks after a 5.2 magnitude earthquake shook central Philippines Friday. More aftershocks could be felt in Marinduque, Mindoro and southern Batangas in coming days, although the tremors are decreasing. About 10 quakes hit the Philippines every day in average, however, most of the quakes are so small in magnitude that they are rarely felt. Over the past 30 years, only three major, destructive quakes took place in the Philippines.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane PAUL was 256 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1312 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

On its current track, Cyclone XAVIER may cause destructive storm force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Vanuatu expects frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms, damaging heavy swells, and flooding, including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas. (satellite photo)

Category 1 Hurricane PAUL weakened this morning, but emergency workers remained on standby to evacuate thousands of residents from the San Jose del Cabo resort in Mexico. About 2,000 to 3,000 families could be evacuated from flood-risk areas to 49 shelters, mostly schools, ahead of Paul, the third hurricane this season to threaten the area. A trough of low pressure has been sending storms this season on a track that takes them toward Mexico's Baja peninsula.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - a week-end cyclonic storm and hail damaged 172 houses and ravaged farms and paddy fields belonging to 150 families in Aizawl district. 12 houses in and around Aizawl city were completely flattened, while the majority of the houses were badly damaged. Paddy crops belonging to 83 shifting cultivators' families were destroyed in nearby Phulpui village just ahead of the harvest time in November. Farms or gardens where flowers like anthurium, beans and vegetables, belonging to 66 families in nearby Durtlang village were also extensively damaged. Paddy fields were also damaged at Bungkawn. The cyclonic storm took the people by surprise as no warning was given by the MET office and the storm was UNLIKELY considering the time of the year.

Fish Die-Off - updated Tuesdays.UPDATED STARTING NEXT WEEK.
(Drought, Heat, and Wildfires will be reported daily as info is available)
Disease - updated Mondays
Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.
Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Fridays.
Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.
Crop Failures, Food Shortages - updated Wednesdays

Monday, October 23, 2006 -

LEARNED THE HARD WAY - when you take a dog on a car ride, he loves to stick his head out the window, but if you blow in his face, he gets very mad at you.

QUAKES -
So far this morning -
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.6 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.2 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/22 -
5.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
10/21 -
5.9 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
10/20 -
5.6 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.6 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 CENTRAL PERU
6.5 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 KORYAKIA, RUSSIA

AUSTRALIA - Geoscience Australia says earthquakes in New South Wales, Victoria and off the Western Australian coast over the past few days are unrelated. Australia experiences earthquakes "continuously". "I don't yet regard this as too far outside the norm...It is true we have had two magnitude fours, but I really don't think it is anything unusual." An earthquake measuring 2.5 on the Richter scale shook parts of Melbourne. Residents of Melbourne's south-east reported a loud noise and shaking floors as a small earthquake hit the city late last night. A tremor measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale was recorded 2,300 kilometres off the Western Australian coast around 7:00pm AWST. Authorities say two dams in central western New South Wales are free of any structural damage after Saturday night's earthquake, which measured four on the Richter scale.
Calls were received from people in St Kilda, Brighton, Caulfield, Elsternwick, South Yarra and Clayton reporting sounds of explosions and rattling windows over three minutes from about 10.40pm. The Country Fire Authority received calls from people in Dandenong North and Narre Warren North, also reporting a deep thud and the sound of explosions. A spokesman for the authority at Dandenong said officers "heard the rumble" and likened it to the sensation of "driving over a level crossing".
A quake Friday struck shortly before 8pm (AEST) at Wyangala. There have been no reports of damage, although people from as far as 100 kilometres away have reported feeling the tremor. "It sounds like people have felt it from a couple of hundred kilometres away, which is a little UNUSUAL for a magnitude four." Some said the quake caused more noise than shaking. "I've been in earthquakes before, and your clothes hangers all shake in the cupboard and all that sort of thing, but it didn't do that. It was the noise, it was more like a thunderstorm, like a rolling thunderstorm." The sound lasted about 20 seconds. "It wasn't long but it was STRANGE."

TURKEY - Locals in Manyas said they saw a `ball of fire’ during the earthquake that struck Turkey’s Marmara region Saturday. The fireball was seen on Manyas Lake, the epicentre of the quake. The quake measured 5.2 on the Richter scale. The governor’s office of Balikesir decided to seek answers about the strange phenomenon after a panicked reaction from locals. “Locals have claimed to have seen a ball of fire appear above the lake during the earthquake. We have, as a result, asked members of the MTA to look into the matter.”
The medium-strength 5.2 earthquake rattled the northwestern Turkish city of Balikesir, causing panic among nearby residents, especially those in Istanbul. The earthquake happened at 9:18 p.m. Friday at a depth of 12.9 km near Lake Manyas, a nature reserve in Balikesir.

PHILIPPINES - fifth earthquake felt since Friday's 5.2 magnitude - Another earthquake rocked parts of Metro Manila and southern Luzon early Sunday. Four earthquakes and three minor aftershocks hit Metro Manila and southern Luzon on Friday and early Saturday. PHIVOLCS recorded a 3.7 magnitude earthquake at 2:23 a.m., with the epicenter located 31 kilometers southeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro. The tremor was felt strongest at intensity 3 in Puerto Galera in Oriental Mindoro, and the cities of Makati and Taguig in Metro Manila. An intensity 2 quake also jolted Quezon City. PHIVOLCS said there were no reports of damage and casualties. The institute said that the possible source of the earthquake was the movement along the eastern segment of the Lubang Fault.

PERU - A strong earthquake, measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale, hit near the coast of central Peru in the pacific early on Friday. There was no immediate information on casualties except for some light damage to houses. The quake came at 5:48 a.m. local time (1048 GMT) with an epicenter 90 km northwest of Pisco city in the central Peruvian department of Ica, at a depth of 43 km. This is the strongest tremor Peru has suffered since the start of the year. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre cautioned that people along coasts within 100km of the epicentre should be aware of the threat of a local tsunami, although there was no threat of a Pacific-wide tsunami. Quakes are common in the South American country, and 78 quakes have taken place this year up to October.

CALIFORNIA - A 4.5-magnitude earthquake centered near The Geysers rocked Lake County Friday morning. A series of aftershocks followed throughout the day, with the largest - 3.9 in magnitude - hitting at 4:31 p.m. The 4.5 earthquake, which occurred at eight seconds after 10 a.m., had an epicenter 13 miles east of Cloverdale and five miles northeast of The Geysers. The U.S. Geological Survey said Friday the quake was the SECOND-STRONGEST MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE RECORDED in The Geysers. Numerous aftershocks ranging in magnitude from less than 1 up to 3.9 occurred Friday. Between the hours of midnight and 7 p.m. Friday there were approximately 56 earthquakes recorded in Lake County. Most took place around The Geysers, Cobb and Anderson Springs. However, a 1.4-magnitude micro earthquake hit the Clearlake Oaks area at approximately 11:44 a.m. Seismic activity in the Cobb Mountain area is created when power plants inject water into the ground to produce steam to generate energy. When the water is pumped out of the ground and reinjected elsewhere the stress fields are caused to change and the earthquakes result. A Cobb resident for 18 years said he has never before experienced his books falling off the shelves and pictures coming down from his walls like he did Friday.

WASHINGTON - A 3.2 magnitude earthquake caused a rockfall at Mount St. Helens Sunday. Scientists at the Johnson Ridge Observatory say a chunk of the current lava spine fell off, and now the spine has a v-shaped notch in the tip. Ash shot about 4000ft in the air and because of heavy winds on the mountain, visitors were able to see a bit of a show.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mt. Bulusan in Sorsogon exploded again Thursday afternoon, belching an ash column from the volcano crater summit for the second time this month, signifying that the volcano's restiveness is still high and the volcano is still in an abnormal state.

Thousands of mud volcanoes have been found from Alaska to Australia. They range from tiny seeps to cones 500 metres (1,640 ft) tall. Risks from volcanoes that ooze mud rather than spew lava have long been underestimated worldwide, even with a cataclysmic mudflow in Java that has swamped an area the size of Monaco and forced 10,000 people from their homes. Mud volcanoes are rarely deadly since they more often seep rather than explode. But they can cause disasters, ranging from subsidence to tsunamis. Mud volcanoes are often caused by a build-up of pressure from sediments crushed several kilometres below the surface that release methane and other gases. They are often found near oil and gas deposits, also caused by a crush of organic matter. In Azerbaijan, a large mud volcano that erupted in 2001 released giant flares of methane.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane PAUL was 410 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1190 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Tropical Storm Paul formed off Mexico‘s west coast Saturday. Paul spun away from Mexico's west coast on Sunday, but forecasters predicted it could become a hurricane and turn towards land within two days. Paul was forecast to gradually shift to the north-east and skirt the southern tip of Baja California, hitting mainland Mexico around the state of Sinaloa early in the week as a hurricane.

The South Pacific's first tropical cyclone, Xavier, is intensifying north of Vanuatu. Cyclone Xavier is slowly moving towards the north of Vanuatu and is expected to pose a direct threat to Vanuatu. Fiji faces no threat from the tropical cyclone, but will experience some rain due to a ridge of high pressure. The Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre is predicting an above average number of cyclones in the South Pacific due to the moderate effects of El Nino. Xavier struck the Solomon Islands at about 06:00 GMT this morning. Projected path

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
MACQUARIE ISLAND - Erosion and heavy spring rains have caused a large landslip on Macquarie Island, in the Southern Ocean about 1500 kilometres south-east of Tasmania, killing penguins in an important colony. The fragile sub-Antarctic world heritage area has been overrun with more than 100,000 rabbits in recent years, which are stripping the island bare of its plants. About 500 square metres of soil gave way due to the combination of heavy spring rains and severe erosion caused by the rabbits. "The landslide... has come down onto an area where the penguins roost, and are active. These are large penguins, so the topsoil has come down the slope and landed on the flat surface near the ocean. The penguins have chicks in place next to the adults and a number of penguins were killed by the landslide.We can't tell how many because it's on the edge of the rookeries."

OZONE HOLE -
The Antarctic ozone hole has BROKEN TWO RECORDS this year for the size of its area and depth. "From September 21st to 30th, the average area of the ozone hole was the LARGEST EVER OBSERVED, at 10.6 million square miles." "The depleted layer has an UNUSUAL vertical extent this year, so it appears that the 2006 ozone hole will go down as a record-setter." Measurements taken in October also found that nearly all of the ozone in the layer between eight and 13 miles above the Earth's surface had been destroyed. Part of the reason behind the extent of the ozone hole is colder than average temperatures. Warmer temperatures lead to smaller holes, while colder ones cause deeper and larger holes. Scientists have estimated that the hole will decrease in area by about 0.1 to 0.2 per cent for the next five to ten years. However, this decrease is marked each year by large variations caused by weather fluctuations. According to the United Nations the ozone hole will fully recovery by 2065.

Friday, October 20, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Time may be a great healer, but it's a lousy beautician.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/19 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SOUTHEASTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA

HAWAII - Sunday's earthquake damaged 1173 homes on the Big Island. Twenty-nine are considered uninhabitable. Preliminary damage estimates from the quake have hit 73 million dollars. President Bush has declared a major disaster. One of the reasons the island didn't suffer more damage is the strict building codes that have evolved over decades of natural disasters. Buildings on the Big Island must meet the strictest level of any of the Hawaiian Islands. There are no buildings taller than 100 feet. There are also no highway overpasses.
Hawaii's two big quakes may have been two independent events, rather than a quake and an aftershock. The 6.7-magnitude quake struck 12.5 miles (20 kilometers) northeast of the Big Island's Kona airport at a depth of 24 miles (39 kilometers) at 7:07 a.m. local time Sunday. "This was not a small earthquake. This was a big one." Seven minutes later, the 6.0-magnitude quake struck 27 miles (43 kilometers) north of the airport at a depth of about 12.5 miles (20 kilometers). The difference in depths establishes that the two are "independent." But other seismologists said it is too early to categorize the magnitude-6.0 event. Scientists still need to analyze the pattern of aftershocks in the coming months before determining whether the smaller event was an aftershock or a triggered earthquake. "A major earthquake may trigger or activate a neighboring fault and start another good-sized earthquake." "Some of these earthquakes get worked on for years. Different techniques come up. People have different points of view." Aftershocks are a series of smaller earthquakes that occur after the main shock and in the same geographic area. Aftershocks can rock a region for months or years. Generally, the bigger the main shock, the more intense the aftershocks will be. Dozens of aftershocks have been recorded since the initial quake. By Wednesday evening, there had been 116 aftershocks. That number of aftershocks "is extremely low." "It is not a very energetic aftershock sequence. I would expect most of the aftershocks to die out in a month, at this rate." Since 1960, the Big Island has been hit with 31 earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.0. But Sunday's first earthquake was the largest recorded since a 6.7 occurred under the east flank of Mauna Loa Volcano on November 16, 1983. The island also experienced a 7.2-magnitude quake on November 29, 1975, and an estimated 7.9 temblor on April 2, 1868. The vast island — spread across more than 4,000-square miles of lava fields, rain forests and pasture lands — was formed by several volcanoes. Kilauea is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, spewing lava and expanding the island's surface.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - About 300 villagers were evacuated from the slopes of the Tungurahua volcano following a surprise eruption of ash, lava and incandescent rocks Wednesday night. No injuries were immediately reported. Experts have warned that renewed explosions could come any time from the volcano 135 kilometers (85 miles) south of the capital of Quito. A violent eruption in mid-August killed four people and left two others missing and still unaccounted for. Nearly 5,000 homes were destroyed or severely damaged and some 190,000 hectares (475,000 acres) of farmland were covered by ash. Thousands of people were also evacuated in July during an earlier eruption. Unlike that eruption, which followed months of loud, booming explosions and rumbling, the smaller explosion late Wednesday came with no warning. "There wasn't a single sound. There was fire and lava that made us take precautionary measures." The upper slopes of the volcano have been mostly deserted since August. Pressure has been building inside the volcano since early September. "What we have seen now is evidence that something there could be something similar to the episodes in July and August" coming. "Inside the ground there is a chamber of magma much larger than the volcano itself."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

Hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. In the 1960s heyday of cloudseeding, the U.S. military undertook "Project Stormfury," with planes spraying silver iodide into hurricanes to form a new larger "eyewall" that would weaken the overall storm. Results were mixed and the program ended. More recently, a study found that people could indeed modify hurricanes - without realizing they were doing it. Detailed statistical analysis showed that over the past 30 years or so hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. It turned out tropical cyclones along the Atlantic coast were markedly weaker on weekends. The researchers concluded that the buildup of pollution from industry and transportation through the work week was acting as the creators of Project Stormfury had wanted, as a stormweakener. Actually, it now appears that Tropical Storm Chris experienced a kind of "pollution death" as it sucked in a lot of dust crossing the Atlantic. So "through our actions we humans may indeed be influencing hurricanes."

Thursday, October 19, 2006 -

Why did the parrot wear a raincoat?
So he could be Polyunsaturated.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/18 -
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA
6.2 VANUATU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

The 2006 hurricane season has been extremely kind to the U.S. compared to 2005. It will be recorded as a year with three landfalling tropical storms in the U.S. and no U.S. hurricanes (unless that changes between now and the end of November). Going back to 1950, only five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. after October 17th. But very often in quiet years (and also active years) we find weather events with huge impact that never get their event stamped into the historical storm/hurricane record book. These are the big rain events, like the one October 16 in southeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. This strong surge of tropical moisture on the verge of becoming a tropical depression (if it were not for shear) rushed north into east Texas and Louisiana as it interacted with an approaching upper-level trough and surface frontal boundary and slid east into Mississippi. The resulting flooding rains were worse for some than what can happen in many tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. More reports keep coming in, with the highest so far being 14 1/2 inches in Kountze, Texas. This was a three-state flooding rainfall, not just a localized event. Much damage resulted; with 19 tornadoes (preliminary count). This big rain/flood event in the east Texas area was not their first during the 2006 hurricane season. One of the first "big" tropical weather impacts to the U.S. (just after Alberto affected the eastern states), occurred on June 18-19 in the form of flooding rains in the greater Houston, Texas area. They may end up getting two of the most significant tropical weather impacts from the 2006 hurricane season. Is it time to warn the public based on the potential impacts to land, rather than on a sterile scientific definition of "what is a tropical cyclone?"

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
LOUISIANA - the Governor has declared a state of emergency for 11 parishes in northern Louisiana hit hard by stormy weather this week. The National Weather Service says the region received the most rain it's gotten in a single storm since Tropical Storm Allison in 1989. More than 200 homes were flooded or otherwise damaged in the storm. One of the hardest-hit areas was Grayson, a town in north-central Louisiana's Caldwell Parish. The weather service says the town received 17 inches of rain.

WIND -
AUSTRALIA - Residents of the Geelong suburb of Corio are repairing their homes after a FREAK storm ripped through the area on Tuesday night, causing hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage. Metal sheets from a carport were blown hundreds of metres away, trees uprooted and roofs damaged by a five-minute wind gust of over 100 km/h just after 10pm. The State Emergency Service described the weather event as a "mini-tornado" or a "dry microburst". Tuesday night's low pressure system was UNUSUAL because cool changes in spring usually bring good rainfall.

SNOW / COLD -
NEW YORK - the number of homes and businesses still without power finally dipped below 100,000 on Wednesday after last week's surprise snowstorm. Storm-related deaths stood at 12 after the nearly two-foot snowfall. Several hospitals reported overcrowding over the weekend because they were unable to discharge patients to homes without electricity or on streets blocked by trees or downed power lines. The storm last Thursday and Friday knocked out electricity to more than 380,000 homes and businesses.

UTAH - An unexpected autumn storm dumped about five inches of snow in Cedar City and surrounding areas early Tuesday morning, causing numerous automobile accidents and wreaking havoc on some trees. The storm that surprised Southern Utahns on Tuesday morning was caused by a RARE weather occurrence in which the precipitation is so heavy and intense that it drops the freezing level by a few hundred feet. "It's uncommon and a fairly difficult forecasting problem." "I haven't seen the damage in trees like this before. ... This is tremendously wet (snow)."

HEAT -
CHINA - Shanghai citizens still waiting for autumn - As the middle of October passes, residents in China's biggest metropolis are still wearing sleeveless shirts as if it was August. And they are likely to continue for the time being, with meteorologists forecasting that Shanghai's temperature will remain UNUSUALLY high. "This year's weather is really VERY UNUSUAL." Normally autumn hits the city between the end of September and the beginning of October, but this year Shanghai has not yet entered the autumn season. Autumn comes only after the average highest temperature falls below 22 C for five consecutive days. But for the past week, the city's average daily highest temperature has stood at about 28 C. The average monthly temperature between June and August reached 28.7 C, the HIGHEST RECORDED since 1873, and a whole 2.7 degrees hotter than any other summer in the past 100 years. Due to the strong influence of subtropical high-pressure, cold air from North China was unable to reach Shanghai. The delayed autumn seems to be becoming more common, with the duration of autumn shrinking more and more because of the ever-growing impact of global warming. However experts believe that a sudden shift from summer to winter is not possible as the weather needs to go through a changing process. In addition to the high temperature, the city's summer was also marked by limited rainfall and arid conditions. In August, Shanghai received only 27.8mm of rain, 136.6mm less than the average for that time of year. September's rainfall of 86.1mm was 50 mm lower than the normal level. Shanghai is not unique in encountering the UNUSUAL autumn. Meteorologists said UNUSUALLY warm weather persisted throughout the country, with temperatures an average of 0.9 degrees higher.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 -

What do you call 20 rabbits moving backwards?
A receding hare line.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/17 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG
5.3 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.4 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 NEW BRITAIN
5.9 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.3 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS
6.8 NEW BRITAIN

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - The strong 6.5 undersea earthquake off the Papua New Guinea island of New Britain sparked a warning of a possible local tsunami, but emergency officials said there had been no reports of damage or casualties. Papua New Guinea emergency authorities said they were still checking with villages along the coast. In July 1998, two undersea quakes measuring 7.0 created three tsunamis that killed at least 2,100 people along the northern coast.

HAWAII - Sunday's 6.7 magnitude Hawaiian earthquake, the most powerful in the Pacific archipelago in two decades, caused more than $US 40 million in damages. Hawaiian officials said they expected the figure to rise. Repeated aftershocks have jolted Hawaiians as they struggle to return to normal. The biggest, a 4.0 magnitude temblor, hit the islanders early on Tuesday.
More than 200 aftershocks have occurred off the Big Island since early Sunday morning and they may continue for weeks. Typically, after large earthquakes, the seismicity slowly decreases, with fewer and weaker aftershocks. The big question now is to determine the mechanism of the earthquake. “If it was on the south flank of Kilauea or associated with the volcano, it would be a much more straightforward answer. But these are STRANGE DEPTHS AND LOCATIONS.” Seismologists are poring over the data to see if they can piece together what might have happened. They’re conducting surveys to see if there was any deformation. Crews are setting up global positioning system instruments on the west side of the island and remeasuring survey markers along the coast to see how far they moved. The observatory also has requested radar satellite data from foreign space agencies. “I expect we’ll see some interesting signals with radar deformation maps. This was an UNUSUAL kind of event and it happened in a place where we have lots and lots of instrumentation running.”
Fish jumped out of a lagoon at a resort in Hawaii just minutes before Sunday's 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck as if they knew it was coming, a witness says. "The windows on all of the rooms started to buckle back and swaying and to wobble and making a loud noises and the rumbling was just intense."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE.

WIND -
UNITED KINGDOM - Hurricane strength winds struck Castlepoint at the weekend in a RARE three-day battering that took out power supplies and downed trees at the coastal resort. Localised storm winds started blowing in the area very late on Thursday night and only twice lulled for two hours at a time before easing overnight on Sunday. The sustained period of the windstorm was "UNCOMMON" despite the location being prone to briefer bouts of high winds. The winds in the period blew almost constantly at about 60km/h from very early Friday and reached "storm force gusting above hurricane strength" gales clocked at over 150km/h on Saturday.

HEAT / DROUGHT -
CANADA - In most of British Columbia rivers throughout the province, except for the Kootenays and the Columbia basin, are showing low to extremely low levels. "We're having RECORD LOWS all the way down the Fraser. We have a long record for the both the Thompson and Fraser, and this is the lowest they've been since 1912." Poor snow conditions last winter led to the low water levels. The problem has a number of implications. "Fisheries is an obvious one. The sockeye run on the North Coast in August was expected to have 8 million fish. The last I head from DFO (Department of Fisheries and Oceans) was they were having trouble finding any fish."The record lows could lead to well problems. Communities which take their water directly from a river before treatment are probably having trouble already. Agricultural operations have already been impacted by the low water levels.

AUSTRALIA - "On any measure, this is an extreme drought. Climate change has hit in a much more dramatic manner that what we ever anticipated." What we're actually experiencing now was predicted to happen in about 2050. Around the country the picture's the same - dams which historically provided nearly 99 per cent of the country's urban water have fallen to RECORD LOW LEVELS and there's less water coming in, prompting alarm in cities both big and small. We have about 16 months supply in our dams if we didn't get any further run-off. Even in good times Australian dams must capture roughly six times as much water as dams in Europe need for the same yield because of erratic rainfall and high evaporation. But these days the rain's hardly falling and virtually every urban centre has been experiencing a RECORD WATER SHORTAGE. There's a growing belief among scientists that rainfall across the south of the continent has moved south, leaving mainland dams dry while more rain falls on the ocean and Tasmania. And there's been a similar rainfall movement along the eastern seaboard. In the nation's fastest growing region, from Sydney to south east Queensland, rain is falling on the cities but not within the dam catchments.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Almonds are a member of the peach family.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/16 -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.4 GILBERT ISLANDS, KIRIBATI, REG
5.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE

HAWAII - Sunday's 6.7-magnitude earthquake generated a 4-inch tsunami that was measured by Kawaihae Harbor's tide gauge at 7:17 am.
Hawaii suffered major road and port damage in the most powerful quake in the Pacific archipelago in two decades, but reported no deaths or serious injuries on Monday much to islanders' amazement.
Hawaii quake blamed on volcanic stress - Hawaii's Big Island is rattled by thousands of minor earthquakes a year, mainly from volcanic eruptions. But the strongest and most destructive types - like Sunday's magnitude-6.7 that caused blackouts and landslides - are RARE and are not caused by eruptions, but by the buildup of stress deep in the crust as volcanoes grow and spread, experts say. Volcanic earthquakes - those triggered by eruptions - are usually detected by the hundreds of swarms of temblors that occur several hours or days before an eruption. The type of quake seen on Sunday, a tectonic earthquake, does not occur in any regular pattern and is harder to predict.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
TEXAS - At least 4 dead in flooding - Heavy thunderstorms brought torrential rains, flooding and tornadoes to Southeast Texas Monday, killing four people, ripping roofs off mobile homes, and trapping rush-hour drivers on flooded, tangled freeways. As much as 10 inches of rain fell in the Houston-Galveston area. Several tornadoes touched down.
In Louisiana, three people were hurt early Monday when strong winds blew through the fishing community of Leeville, 90 miles south of New Orleans

HEAT / DROUGHT -
AUSTRALIA - Livestock prices across NSW are in freefall, with farmers selling off RECORD numbers of sheep and cattle as the drought worsens.
Farmers are in despair as the drought sears the land - In some places the creeks have not flowed in a decade. The crippling effect of the fifth straight year of drought has some farmers shooting their animals. For others, the plight has become even more desperate and every four days officials record the suicide of another farmer. Food prices are set to rise because of plummeting production. Some farmers are asking whether farming across vast tracts of Australia has been wiped out for good by global warming. The country’s most productive grain growing belt — southern Western Australia — is drying out faster than any other place on Earth. “Everyone says it will turn around, but these dry years have been the norm for us for such a long time now." “The worst thing is that you start to wonder if it’s ever going to rain again. It’s going to affect every dinner table over summer. This is because for the first time in many generations we have a drought that’s virtually across the southern half of the continent.” Australia is the world’s driest inhabited continent; only Antarctica has less rainfall.

CHINA - More than 400 cites in China are suffering from acute water shortages and 110 of those have reached a crisis point.

UNITED KINGDOM - Britain now seems to have a fifth season bridging the gap between summer and autumn. The new season, created by global warming, has been dubbed “sort-of-autumn” or summertumn. All across Britain, temperatures continue to be much more like summer than the colder months before winter. The idyllic unseasonal weather is likely to be repeated in years to come, according to the Met Office. The Met Office considers autumn to start on September 1 rather than on the autumn equinox — which fell on the 23rd this year. But this September was the HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN 234 years ago. “Maximum temperatures this month have been three to four degrees above average in places.” There have also been longer than average hours of sunshine. Last month the UK average was 170 hours — 17 per cent above normal.

POPULATION -
The US population will hit 300 million today, 39 years after reaching 200 million.

Monday, October 16, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - The easiest way to find something lost around the house is to buy a replacement.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/15 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.9 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
6.5 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
5.0 SE.OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

HAWAII - A magnitude 6.6 earthquake shook Hawaii early Sunday, it knocked out power and forced the Governor to declare a statewide disaster. On Hawaii Island a landslide blocked a major highway while boulders fell on roads, rock walls collapsed and televisions were knocked off stands.
This is what everyone has worried about: A sizeable earthquake hitting a populated area, with no way to predict it, and no way to anticipate the amount of damage done. Hawaii does not fit the mold of most major earthquake zones. It is considered a "hot spot," prone to earthquake activity, because of the rugged volcanoes that formed the island chain. But it is not on the juncture of two of the major tectonic plates that form the earth's crust, the seams where most earthquakes occur. The big island of Hawaii is made of five volcanoes, two of which — Mauna Loa and Kiluaea — remain active today. The strongest of Sunday's quakes was reported by the USGS to have been centered 24.2 miles below sea level, six miles southwest of Puako, Hawaii. The Hawaiian earthquake of Sunday morning is currently estimated to have been a 6.6, revised upward from a 6.3. In the three hours following, there were at least 45 aftershocks of magnitude 1.9 or greater.
Longtime residents of Hawaii say the earthquake that jolted them out of bed just after 7 a.m. local time was perhaps the biggest they've ever felt. "It went on for about a minute; it kept going and going and going and going. It was rolling and rolling. But it was the duration that was so dynamic about this earthquake. It just didn't seem to stop." The quake struck as heavy rain fell in parts of the state. This is the largest event in the Hawaiian Islands since 1983. "It was felt everywhere from the big island to Kauai and did significant damage on the big island. Fortunately, it generated only a very small tsunami." "Now when we look out at our beautiful coast, the water is a murky brown from many dirt cliff sides crumbling into the sea."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression Norman was 27 nmi W of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon Soulik was 370 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.

Former Tropical Storm Norman regenerated into a tropical depression Sunday and was lashing southwestern Mexico with heavy rains. The government issued a tropical storm warning for a swath of the Pacific Coast from the port city of Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, but discontinued it about 12 hours later. Late Sunday, Norman had maximum sustained winds near 55 kph (35 mph) and was centered 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the resort of Manzanillo. It had been speeding toward Mexico's coast, but slowed before becoming stationary and starting to dissipate. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Norman had been likely to strengthen again into a tropical storm before coming ashore. But as the storm weakened, it was unclear if its center would move ashore. Despite it's lost wind speed, Norman continued to dump heavy rain on southern Mexico. The hurricane center said it could drop 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) of rain over some areas with isolated accumulations of 38 centimeters (15 inches), threatening flash floods and mudslides. Norman formed far out in the Pacific on Oct. 9, and quickly became a tropical storm before weakening into a tropical depression and disintegrating further. But it regenerated before dawn on Sunday and began heading straight for Mexico.

Tropical storm Soulic, Asia's 19th major storm of the year, is centered far out in the Pacific Ocean but is expected to bring gales to the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan straits and oceans south of Japan. The storm, packing winds or more than 140 kilometers an hour is moving northeastly at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
A landslide killed a child on France's Reunion Island. A child was killed Sunday when part of a cliff collapsed onto a highway on the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion. A rock weighing 40-50 kilograms (88-110 pounds) fell onto the highway, crushing the back half of the car in which the child was traveling. In March, two people were killed when part of the cliff broke off onto the same highway.

Sunday, October 15, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - In the 60's, people took acid to make the world weird. Now the world is weird and people take Prozac to make it normal.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/14 -
5.1 NORTHERN CHILE
10/13 -
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
5.1 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BANDA SEA

Did the nuclear test by North Korea on October 9 trigger earthquakes in the region? Apparently yes. The earthquake pattern between October 9 and 13 in East Asia, geologists say, was due to a disturbance in natural stress conditions of the subduction zone extending from Kuril island in the north to Phillipines islands in the south. They said it was apparent that the nuclear explosion did create stress along the trench. In the last two months, such earthquake "clusters" were not observed in the zone. Between October 9 and 11, the Phillippines islands experienced nearly 10 quakes with magnitudes varying from 4.2 to 6.3 on the Richter scale. Taiwan recorded a 5.6-magnitude quake, while Japan recorded a 5.8-magnitude temblor on October 10. Similarly, Kuril islands experienced a 6-magnitude quake. A plot of the epicentres on the tectonic map of East Asia clearly demonstrates the nuclear test released stress along the subduction zone, geologists pointed out. A 5.8-magnitude quake shook northern Japan on Tuesday evening, sparking fears that it was a second nuclear test by North Korea but this was proved wrong later. Instead, seismologists detected a series of earthquakes near Japan.

TSUNAMI -
FIJI - With seismic activity reported to be increasing in the region, the National Disaster Management Center is now taking steps to improve the time in which a tsunami warning would be issued for the Fiji group.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon SOULIK was 486 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.

Tropical Storm Soulik - Okinawa and Japan’s main islands appear to be safe from Tropical Storm Soulik, which continued to churn slowly northwest toward Iwo Jima but was forecast to curve sharply northeast by the weekend and dissipate well to the east of Tokyo. Okinawa might experience some “pretty significant waves” and “something in the next day or two as far as wind and increased chance of showers not associated with feeder bands but because it’s in the area.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CHINA - Flooding and landslides caused by torrential rains in south-western China have left at least 20 people dead or missing and 11 others injured. Heavy downpours from October 6 to 12 in the mountainous Honghe prefecture of Yunnan province triggered the flooding and landslides.

MALAYSIA - Heavy rains triggered a landslide that submerged an entire village in eastern Malaysia while a tree fell onto a railway car carrying foreign and local tourists, but no one was hurt in either incident. The monsoon rains had loosened soil on hillsides. Around 100 villagers from Sepanggar in eastern Sabah state were evacuated after elders sounded the alarm when they spotted trees swaying on a nearby hillside. Within minutes, as many as 15 houses were crushed by a mudslide. All the villagers managed to get out of their houses before the early Thursday morning mudslide. Meanwhile, 40 passengers, including 29 foreign tourists, had to walk for an hour to the nearest train station after a tree fell on their railcar in southwestern Sabah Thursday.

SNOW / COLD -
CANADA - Thousands of people in Ontario's Niagara region were still without electricity Saturday after a fall snowstorm Environment Canada describes as of "historic proportions." The outages continued more than 24 hours after a RECORD-BREAKING snowstorm roared across Lake Erie into southern Ontario and western New York.
NEW YORK - Having just set a RECORD for the "snowiest" October day, the city of Buffalo in western New York state braced for more Friday as the season's first snowfall closed schools and left 155,000 customers without electricity.

Friday, October 13, 2006 -

TRYING TO GET HEALTHY - I tried jogging, but it made the ice jump right out of my martini and put my cigarette out.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/12 -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
5.4 TURKMENISTAN
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.7 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION

VOLCANOES -
INDIA - After spewing smoke and molten rock for the past 16 months, India's only active volcano appears to be sputtering out. The volcano on Barren Island in the Andaman archipelago erupted in May 2005 following the massive undersea earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra that generated the devastating December 2004 tsunami. "Volcanic activity in the entire area of the Andaman and Nicobar region is calming down." The release of huge quantities of molten rock and the resulting decline in pressure inside the volcano had likely led to the decreased activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 690 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon SOULIK was 595 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
KENYA - Five Kenyan toddlers died on Thursday after being buried alive in a landslide at a heavily populated slum area near Kenya's main port. The victims, all under the age of five, were playing in a gorge near Mombasa's Mburukenge slum when the earth above them collapsed, sending a surge of mud down the slope. "We think the landslide was caused by recent heavy rains."

MALAYSIA - Landslide destroys 17 squatter houses - A total of 17 houses and a surau in Kampung Lok Bunu were destroyed by a landslide, Thursday. No one was hurt in the incident at the squatter settlement as the residents saw the hillslope collapsing at about 8am and escaped the danger in time. The landslide at the settlement of about 70 houses occupied by 107 families was the second in five years. The first in 2001 claimed three lives. The squatters were advised to move to a safer site to avoid a similar incident as the weather lately had been unpredictable.

ALASKA - Heavy rains, flooding and mudslides have isolated several Alaskan cities. While some 200 residents once evacuated are now being allowed home, the southern Alaskan city of Valdez is now isolated, as the only highway connecting it with the outside world has been washed out. Floodwaters so severely damaged a 66-mile stretch of highway that it could be closed for up to a week. In two days the area received between eight and ten inches of rain - with more than six inches of rain falling in one 24 hour period, prompting mudslides and flash flooding. The city of Cordova - south of Valdez - saw at least 22 inches of rain in only a few days. High water cut off the main highway into town and the Cordova airport is also flooded. The area also saw severe flooding in August. Seward and parts of the Kenai Peninsula also reported flooding.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - Hundreds of firefighters have battled blistering heat and strong winds as more than 250 fires broke out across Victoria today. By 4pm, 258 fires were burning as the mercury hit 36.5 degrees celsius in Melbourne - the HOTTEST OCTOBER DAY IN ALMOST 100 YEARS. The most severe fires are at Gippsland in the state's east, the only part of the state where a total fire ban has not been declared. "There's been very extreme fire behaviour today with fire height going to 10 metres and crowning (reaching tree tops)." "It's really unseasonal weather and is causing us considerable difficulty."

Thursday, October 12, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why isn't your nose 12 inches long?
Because then it would be a foot.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/11 -
5.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.7 OFF COAST OF MEXICO
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION <5.7 OFF COAST OF MEXICO
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TAIWAN REGION

TSUNAMI -
The last known tsunami to hit Europe was over 8,000 years ago. But new research reveals that there have been a number of deep-sea earthquakes since then, and that a landslide along the continental slopes could pose a serious risk to the cities and towns on the North Sea coast. It was a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions when an earthquake shook Norway's coast between Bergen and Trondheim about 8,150 years ago. The tremors ripped pieces of land the size of Iceland from shallow water and sent them crashing into the deep sea. Like a stone thrown into a pond, the landslide produced ripples of waves that spread at the speed of a train. Along the beaches of Scotland the waves were up to six meters (20 feet) high. Research has found that earthquakes in the seabed near Great Britain not only occurred more frequently in the past than had previously been thought (1089, 1508, 1607, 1686 and 1847), but that they were also stronger.

VOLCANOES -
EL SALVADOR - Authorities declared an alert on Tuesday for an area around the Chaparrastique volcano after the peak began rumbling ominously. 45,000 people who live within an area roughly 4 square kilometers (1.4 square miles) around the peak were urged to be ready for a possible call for evacuations. The volcano had been experiencing relatively small, imperceptible tremors for days, but in the last several hours had emitted "continuous, abnormal vibrations." Such vibrations are sometimes observed before an eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 869 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 457 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Soulik continued intensifying as it rumbled Tuesday toward Iwo Jima, and forecasters at Kadena Air Base said the chances were good that Okinawa could be on the itinerary for the 21st storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. It was still “about a week” from reaching Okinawa “as it stands right now … assuming nothing major changes in the atmosphere.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Flooding level in Nakhon Sawan is the HIGHEST IN 60 YEARS, Nakhon Sawan became the latest province submerged on Wednesday after nightlong heavy rains as 17 provinces have been inundated and almost two million people affected. Most parts of Nakhon Sawan are under water, with the water level in the province now reaching two metres. The situation could worsen, as Weather Department predicted more heavy rains for the following weeks.
Bangkok is bracing for floods to hit the city as the Chao Phraya river that flows through the capital has hit a RECORD-HIGH level 220 kilometres away. Bangkokians got a preview Tuesday night as torrential rains caused widespread flooding and paralyzed rush-hour traffic as water levels reached 70 to 80 centimetres at some major intersections. Before the high waters of the Chao Phraya, which drains most of north and central Thailand, hit an already soaked Bangkok, attempts were made to divert the high volume of water to fields and 2,000 rai of land owned by the royal family. 39 people have died since August 27 as a result of the inundations.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
TASMANIA - Tasmania's south has been hit by sweltering temperatures and strong winds and there is a "NEAR-RECORD fire danger ... (and) conditions have not peaked".

UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENTS -
ALASKA - Production at America's largest oil field will remain down for several days. That word Wednesday from BP. The oil company says operators are scrambling to clean hardened mud off high voltage electrical insulators that shorted and brought down the field's electrical system. A BP spokesman says a "HIGHLY UNUSUAL weather event" - three days of dust storms followed by rain at Prudhoe Bay - coated insulators with a mud that could not be cleaned off before electrical shorts brought down the power distribution system. The recent windy weather at Prudhoe Bay, where the lack of snow cover allowed dirt and debris to be whipped around, had slowed work at the oil field even before the power outage. Indeed, such storms have affected the power system at Prudhoe every three to four years but nothing on this recent scale. Strong winds were also blamed for a private-plane crash in Southwest Alaska, but all seven passengers survived.

MICHIGAN - a cold front moving into the area will bring rain and possibly several inches of snow tonight into Friday morning for inland portions of Charlevoix, Emmet and Cheboygan counties. “This is a PRETTY UNUSUAL weather set up. It is something we typically see more in November and December.” The cold front, currently over Minnesota, will come into the area this afternoon. This weather pattern will stay in the area through this weekend into next week, when temperatures will moderate. Normal highs during the month of October for Northern Michigan are in the upper 50s. However, starting this afternoon the temperature for the area will drop to the 30s in the evenings and 40s during the day. Those low temperatures will stick around through the weekend. “It's a good 15 degrees plus below average.” "It is way too early though, way too early [for several inches of snow]. If it was first part of November that is par for the course, but not the middle of October. Give me a break.”

NEW ZEALAND - UNUSUAL weather - This year's winter has been called ONE OF THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE. And now spring does not seem to be shaping up much better after recent gales and heavy rain in the north and snow down south on Tuesday.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - It takes long hours of practice to become a good chess player - maybe that's why they always seem so happy when they get to take a knight off.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/10 -
5.1 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA, REGION
5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon province shot ash columns into the air late Tuesday afternoon, signaling renewed volcanic activity after about four months of relative calm. Seismologists said Bulusan erupted nine times, spewing a thick column of ash three kilometers into the sky, which later drifted southeast to the towns of the towns of Casiguran, Irosin, and Bulan. The explosion may have been caused by contact of rainwater with hot rocks in Bulusan's crater but volcanologists would conduct further studies to check if the volcano was gearing for a violent eruption. There were no signs that the volcano would go into a major eruption. There was no prior warning because the province has remained without power since typhoon Milenyo’s passage. The volcano has exploded nine times between March 21 and June 20, prompting school closures and the evacuation of selected communities. It has not belched ash since June.

INDONESIA - The Japanese International Cooperation Agency warned of possible great lava slide along several rivers on Mt. Merapi's slope in Indonesia in the upcoming rainy season. A delegation to Yogyakarta said that the Gendol river was the most dangerous one as it had a large deposit of volcanic materials upstream. "Our survey showed that volcanic materials in Gendol river can be easily carried downstream by water." They stressed the need of an early warning system for tourists and residents working on the river downstream especially entering the rainy season as cold lava could strike anytime.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression NORMAN was 545 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 908 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 323 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - many thousands of freehold farmlands belonging to local residents have been submerged since Monday afternoon only to save Bangkok from flooding. The move has remarkably reduced a large volume of overflow to the capital thanks to the great sacrifice by the King and his subjects in Ayutthaya, one of the hardest-hit in the flood woes. The king granted royal permission for the Royal Irrigation Department to divert excess waters overflow the Chao Phraya River basin to his vast plots of land in this central province to help absorb the deluge before it can flood Bangkok. Bangkok is expected to survive the critical period as high tide reaches its peak in the coming few days. As of Monday, the official death toll reported by the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation reached 39, while more than two million people have been made homeless or are otherwise suffering from severe effects of the flooding.
THAILAND & MYANMAR are suffering their WORST MONSOON FLOODS IN 11 YEARS.

GREECE - Flash floods caused by heavy rain swept through dozens of northern Greek villages for a second day on Tuesday damaging hundreds of homes, washing away roads and bridges and forcing rescue teams to airlift isolated villagers. The government declared a state of emergency for devastated regions in central and northern Greece. The heaviest damage was recorded near the northern city of Thessaloniki, Greece's second largest, which received more rain in the 24-hour period from Sunday than it regularly does in the whole month of October. Sections of national highways and bridges were washed away, effectively isolating dozens of villages and towns in the nearby Halkidiki area. Rail lines connecting the central Greek cities of Larisa and Volos were also washed away by the flood waters. The floods in northern Greece come just two months after the region suffered its worst-ever spate of fires which destroyed about 50,000 hectares of forests.

NEW MEXICO - A fast-moving storm dumped hail on Las Cruces and several parts of Dona Ana County overnight Monday. In less than a half-hour, the area was covered in a blanket of ice. The last time it hailed in the area was on Sept. 14. The hail, bigger than the size of a dime, created a slushy mess overnight along several streets. Hail has been known for creating dangerous road conditions. October is typically a month when severe weather is common, but forecasters said hail storms just three weeks apart is UNUSUAL.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006 -

QUAKES -
DID YOU KNOW? There are 293 ways to make change for a dollar.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/9 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
6.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 16E was 1143 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm NORMAN was 587 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 430 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Norman is the 18th named storm of the 2006 Pacific hurricane season. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. Norman is located well to the southwest of Baja California, and is currently tracking north at 7 miles per hour. The storm is expected to slowly curve to the northeast as it slowly strengthens, then slowly weaken when it moves over colder waters. There is a chance that it could bring winds and rain to Baja California before it dissipates. (map)

RUSSIA - The cyclone in South Kurils killed a motorboat captain. The motorboat, which has a crew of four, was anchored near the village of Golovnino on the Kunashir Island. The strong wing and high waves tore off the anchor and carried the boat away to the sea. The crew failed to start the engine and sent a May Day signal. The Mechta boat was sent to rescue the RSH-2477 motorboat, but it failed to come close enough. The motorboat crewmembers jumped overboard and were picked up by the Mechta. The captain died during the rescue operation, presumably of a heart attack. The Mechta is unable to reach the shore because of eight-meter-high waves. It is drifting in the Izmeny Bay. Another motorboat, RSH-2251, was carried away from Golovnino on Sunday. The motorboat was under repairs and had no people onboard. Both motorboats are drifting towards Japan. Tokyo has been warned about the navigation peril between the South Kuril Island of Kunashir and the Japanese Island of Hokkaido. The cyclone came to the South Kurils from Japan, where a series of shipwrecks happened, killing four people and causing the disappearance of another 29. The cyclone is moving along the Kuril islands to the north, and will reach the Island of Paramushir in about one day.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Floods in Thailand have killed 32 people and sickened 138,000 others, many suffering from waterborne bacteria or parasites from wading through waist-deep water. Flooding has hit 43 of Thailand's 76 provinces since August, the height of the rainy season. Of the flood-hit provinces, 22 remain inundated by heavy rains related to Typhoon Xangsane.

GREECE - Torrential rains over the weekend flooded vast areas of northern Greece, causing much damage and widespread power outages. The worst-affected areas included the villages of Melissourgos, Stavro, and Olympiada, as well as locations along the Thessaloniki-Kavala stretch of the national highway.

CHINA - Four more bodies were recovered early Monday in a landslide in northwest China, bringing the death toll to 11, with one person still missing. The landslide occurred at 9:30 a.m. Friday at Gaolou Village in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province, when more than 50,000 cubic meters of mud and rock destroyed 94 houses, burying 13 villagers. Villagers nearby have been evacuated to safety. It rained heavily for ten days in the hilly area a week before the landslide.

MALAYSIA - Heavy rains triggered a landslide at the back of a row of low-cost flats in Section 10, Wangsa Maju, forcing about 600 residents to flee their homes.

Monday, October 9, 2006 -

LEARNED THE HARD WAY - When weeding, the quickest way to make sure you are removing a weed and not a valuable plant is to pull on it. If it comes out of the ground easily, it is a valuable plant.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/8 -
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.8 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 WINDWARD ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15E was 630 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 21W was 650 nmi E of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

RUSSIA - A powerful cyclone hit the Southern Kuriles on Sunday. The wind has reached 130 kilometers per hour in Yuzhno-Kurilsk, on the Kunashir Island. Large storm waves of six meters beat the water areas in the Pacific Ocean and the Okhotsk Sea close to the Kurile range. Fishing vessels are hiding in sheltered bays. Weather experts say the cyclone will continue to reign on the islands on Sunday and Monday and then will decrease, going to the Pacific Ocean. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
FLORIDA - Extremely strong winds, pelting rain and a tornado blew through Central Florida Saturday night. More than 75 people in Apopka are homeless due to a roof collapse and are getting help from the Red Cross. The severe storm was UNUSUAL for autumn. It was caused by a cold front from the north colliding with warm air with the south over Central Florida.

UTAH - RECORD RAIN - Some parts of Utah received more rain on Friday than they do normally in six to 12 months.

Sunday, October 8, 2006 -

All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/7 -
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 OFF COAST OF SOUTHERN CHILE
5.8 NORTHERN CHILE
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
10/6 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA, REG
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 ARABIAN SEA
5.7 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
Mt Tavurvur - the erupting volcano on the Papua N