Tuesday, October 31, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why is it a bad idea to write a letter on an empty stomach?
Because it's much better to write on paper.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/30 -
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 SOUTHERN PERU

CHINA - earthquakes jolted central China's Hubei Province over the weekend, affecting more than 50,000 local residents and causing more than 9.8 million yuan (US $1.23 million) loss. An earthquake measuring 4.7 magnitude on the Richter scale hit the province's Suizhou City on Friday evening. More than 50 aftershocks have been detected, and the strongest was 4.2 magnitude. The tremors destroyed 13,981 rooms and forced 5,860 people to evacuate.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 204 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

Typhoon Cimaron , which formed Saturday over the eastern Filipino coast, is moving north and west toward Vietnam packing high winds and rough seas, set to make landfall in central areas November 1. The storm is expected to continue moving northwesterly at 15kph over the next 24 hours, and warnings have been issued to all seafaring vessels in the area. The British Tropical Storm Risks center predicted the typhoon would weaken as it hit central Vietnam, possibly Quang Ngai province, on November 1. But data supplied by the JTWC still graded the storm as a “super” typhoon.

HEAT / DROUGHT -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney has experienced its DRIEST OCTOBER IN FOUR YEARS because of the El Nino phenomenon, experts say.
A major dam supplying Melbourne has dipped to its LOWEST LEVEL EVER.

CLIMATE CHANGE-
Doomsday scenario paints a grim picture of what the world will look like only 50 years from now if politicians, industries and citizens alike across the world do not take action now to reverse the trend of climate change. According to a report, business as usual will in the worst case scenario cost the world up to 20 percent of the global economy, it will make at least 200 million people "climate change refugees" and will make around 40 percent of the globe's animals extinct. "Unless we act now the consequences – disastrous as they are – will be irreversible. It will not happen in "some science fiction future, but in our lifetime."

INDIA - For the past two decades, Arjun Jana has lived the life of an “environmental refugee” in Sagar island. He was forced to leave home in Lohachara island, one of the many islets on the Sundarban delta, when the surging sea waters swamped his farmland. Now 75, Jana’s migration to Sagar brought him to safer land. But it also made him poorer for the rest of his life. There’s no old-age allowance from the local administration for either Jana or his wife. And apart from a piece of land allotted to him years ago, and his thatched hut, the couple has nothing that they can call “ours”. “The sea had been eating away our island with every passing day. And then, one day, it engulfed everything that had remained untouched till then — our home, fields, the cattle… everything.” Sagar Colony, Bankim Nagar, Chakhaldubi — these are now home to most of these migrants. Farmers once, they are now petty labours, devoid of any civic amenity. Even drinking water is precious in these refugee colonies. Lack of opportunities, growing population and a consistent encroachment of the island by outsiders to set up hotels has meant further pressure. But what’s even more worrying is the unseen threat — ingression of salt waters that is slowly breaking down a dozen islands in the region. Sagar is one of them. “Their islands have vanished. There are many more, thousands of people, who will turn into environmental refugees in the next decade. Where will they all go when more islands go under water? To Sagar? To Kolkata? Nobody seems to have a solution.”

Monday, October 30, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - How is it one careless match can start a forest fire, but it takes a whole box to start a campfire?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/29 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 41 nmi NW of Baguio City, Philippines.

THE PHILIPPINES was hit by ONE OF 'STRONGEST TYPHOONS EVER'. Typhoon Cimaron blew over the northern Philippines today, felling trees, toppling power lines, blasting roofs off homes and leaving at least three people dead. Cimaron, which made landfall late Sunday, is the second typhoon to hit the northern Philippines in as many months and was packing maximum winds of 175 km/h and gusts of up to 210 km/h. It was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam late today.

INDIA - Even as Orissa remembered the unprecedented devastation caused by the super cyclone on Monday seven years ago, a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on the Andhra Pradesh coast. The depression formed over the west central Bay. The system was likely to move in a northerly direction and cross the Andhra Coast between Bapatla and Kakinada. The forecast is for the likelihood of rain or thunder-shower at many places over south Orissa and a few places over the northern districts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the open sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - Torrential rain paralysed normal life in several parts of Tamil Nadu, particularly Chennai and Nagapattinam districts, while the death toll in rain-related incidents since the onset of north-east monsoon rose to 35 on Sunday. Rain inundated most low-lying areas of the state capital and over 65,000 people have been shifted to safer places. Most of the deaths occurred due to house collapse incidents. The majority of the fishermen, who ventured into the sea braving heavy rains, have returned.

SOMALIA - Heavy rain in Mogadishu left 17 dead in the Somali capital overnight, bringing the death toll to 27 as a result of floods across the shattered African nation in the past week. The victims, mainly children and the elderly, died after their mud-walled houses collapsed under heavy rain that pummelled several Mogadishu districts late on Saturday, leaving hundreds homeless and destroying property of unknown value. Residents said that at least 61 houses were destroyed by the heavy seven-hour downpour. In August, thousands of Mogadishu residents were forced to flee to higher ground by flooding which destroyed dozens of makeshift homes. Last week, heavy rains also killed at least 10 people in the country's southern Gedo region, which was recently hit by a scorching drought that put millions on people on the verge of starvation.

WIND -
NORTHEASTERN U.S. STATES - Hundreds of thousands of people in the northeastern United States lacked power Sunday as utility crews scrambled to clear power lines of tree branches toppled by a windstorm. Heavy rains and winds clocked at 80 kilometres per hour knocked over power lines in Maine, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland and New York state on Saturday. The area most seriously affected was Long Island, N.Y., where nearly 230,000 people were left without electricity. Crews had managed to restore power to many of those by Sunday afternoon, but then winds knocked down more wires.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
Reports predict a global warming deluge - The Netherlands, Bangladesh and several Pacific Islands could be underwater within 50 years and the environment of many countries, particularly Australia with the Great Barrier Reef, will simply be wrecked. "If you go ahead say 50 years, and we continue to emit CO2 at 2.5 to three parts per million, then essentially it's all over. When we hit 550 parts per million, that's when Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Pacific islands and large parts of large countries and many countries in the region are simply devastated...If we take the window of opportunity in the next 10 years, we can have a substantial impact and we can avoid the scientific outcome that is coming down the track."

A new report warns global warming will cost more than either world wars or the Great Depression. Leaked portions of the report warn that global warming could cost trillions of dollars to address. The report concluded that early action would be far cheaper than waiting until the full effects of climate change were felt. "Perhaps five, 10 or 20 times cheaper."

Sunday, October 29, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - "America is never wholly herself unless she is engaged in high moral principle. We as a people have such a purpose today. It is to make kinder the face of the Nation and gentler the face of the world." - George Bush, inaugural address - 1989.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/28 -
5.4 NICARAGUA
10/29 -
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon CIMARON was 167 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - Tropical storm Paeng (international codename Cimaron) has intensified into a typhoon, increasing its threat to Central and Northern Luzon. Residents in areas where storm signals have been hoisted were warned against possible flashfloods and landslides especially those who live along the eastern coast of Luzon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
UNITED KINGDOM - Hours of heavy rain saw the WORST FLOODING IN YEARS hit Sutherland Thursday, bringing the county to a grinding halt. "River levels have risen quickly due to the persistent rain and more is forecast."

ETHIOPIA - A river burst its banks in southeastern Ethiopia following heavy rains in highland Ethiopia, killing 15 people and displacing more than 2,000. Flooding typically occurs in Ethiopia's lowlands after heavy rains in the June-September season drench the highlands.

SRI LANKA - At least six people have been killed by torrential rain and flooding in the southern and western parts of the country.

SNOW / COLD -
PAKISTAN - One officer of the Pakistan army and 2 Jawans were killed and 16 jawans were injured after an avalanche hit an army post located in Baltar at a glacier close to Skardu.

AUSTRALIA - A fast-moving cold snap from the Antarctic has swept across south eastern Australia sending temperatures plummeting and causing snow and hail to fall across three states. Tasmania copped the brunt of the chilly weather last night, with snow settling in hills 400m above sea level and falls reported in some beachside suburbs. Launceston experienced its COLDEST OCTOBER NIGHT ON RECORD at -1C while temperatures on Mt Wellington near Hobart dropped to -6C, not quite reaching the coldest ever October evening of -7.7C. In Victoria hail fell across the southern parts of the state with snow reported at 600m in Mt Dandenong, Mt Macedon and Kinglake. "It's moved very quickly from a very long way south." Weather forecasters are predicting even colder temperatures today and say tonight may meet the city's October record low of 0C recorded in 1889. Heavy frosts are expected and fruit farmers have been warned to keep an eye on their crops. The weather is a reminder that summer is still some time off despite a recent spate of hot weather. Two weeks ago the Tasmanian weather bureau was issuing extreme fire danger alerts as Hobart recorded 33.1C, the city's third warmest October day ever. Victoria had also experienced a mild to warm month with high than average temperatures. "Relative to the higher temperatures we've seen this (cold snap) does come as a bit of a shock."

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - Sydney's drinking water is under threat from a bushfire burning out of control close to Warragamba Dam. The fire in the Blue Mountains is expected to worsen in the next few days with the possibility of hot, windy weather set to hamper firefighting efforts. About 100 firefighters today were winched into a remote area five kilometres from Lake Burragorang, part of the Warragamba Dam catchment which supplies 80 per cent of the city's drinking water. The NSW Rural Fire Service says it fears debris and ash from the fire could clog the filtration system at the dam. The blaze started on Wednesday with a lightning strike and has burnt 3,000 hectares of bushland.

CLIMATE CHANGE -
Africa is the continent probably most vulnerable to climate change and the one that faces the greatest challenges to adapt to those changes. For millions of people in the Horn of Africa and the east of the continent, the success or failure of rains due over the next two months will be critical. The rains – or lack of them – will determine if 2007 will offer the prospect of recovery from the serious drought of 2005-06 or if it will be another year of desperately struggling to survive. Whatever happens to the rains, Africa is already undergoing big environmental changes. Although the climates of Africa have always been erratic, the latest scientific research, together with the on-the-ground experience of non-governmental agencies, indicates new and dangerous extremes, continual warming and more unpredictable weather patterns. “A huge gap is emerging between awareness of global warming and action to deal with it. We’re behaving like a group of people agreed that the building around us is on fire, but unwilling to reach for the alarm or the fire extinguisher. Africa’s precarious position on the front line of climate change reveals the complacency of rich countries whose greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and who have failed to deliver on even their current pitifully small promises of financial help. Waking up may be hard to do, but the alternative is having the house burn around us as we sleep.”

Mass movements of peoples across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a new study suggests. The spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees is raised by the study, which says that the main cause will be climate-induced threats from water, or the lack of it – from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges, and from sea-level rise. There are already an estimated 25mn million environmental refugees around the world. Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the USA. One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought. The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes. In Nigeria, 1,350 square miles of land are turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.

Friday, October 27, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Change is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be." - Isaac Asimov

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/26 -
5.9 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.8 SICILY, ITALY
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES

U.S. seismologists have found earthquake swarms are not just clustered around volcanoes or geothermal regions but can occur in any seismically active area. An earthquake swarm consists of several moderate, related seismic events occurring over hours or days. "Swarminess" in volcanic and geothermal zones might be driven by hot water or magma pushing fault seams apart or acting to reduce friction and enhancing the seismic activity in those areas. But away from volcanic and thermal regions, it is unclear what triggers swarms that don't include main shocks and aftershocks. It is possible swarms are driven by tectonic movements so gradual that they take many minutes to weeks to unfold, but are still more rapid than normal plate tectonic motions.

A full moon might have triggered the December 26 Indian Ocean undersea earthquake. Researchers monitored tremors and collected tidal data along the Java/Sumatra trench, between October 2004 and August 2005. They found that major quakes were 86 per cent more likely around new and full moons, when tides are at their greatest. “At new and full moons the biggest mass of water is being loaded and unloaded at the plate boundary. That might be the final push that initiates a quake.” The study carries significance as another study recently found that rain can also trigger quakes.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - The Karymsky volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia's Far East has increased its activity, spewing ash emissions up to an altitude of around 5,000 meters (16,400 feet). Experts said a total of 450 minor quakes have been registered over the past 24 hours near Karymsky. The volcano erupted in February following an 11-year period of normal activity. Ash emissions and about 230 minor tremors were reported last week. Experts say the volcano's activity has been accelerating. This year more than 1,200 people, including 542 children, were evacuated from the north of the Kamchatka peninsula after a series of earthquakes. The first 7.8-magnitude quake, the strongest in the Koryak Autonomous Area in the north of the peninsular since 1900, injured 31 people on April 21.

PHILIPPINES - The restive Bulusan volcano spewed mud and ash Thursday for the second time this week in the central Philippines.

SICILY - Experts swooped on Mount Etna on Thursday after the volcano sprang back into life. The volcanologists examined a fresh lava flow on the south side of the volcano, coming out of a fissure that opened up at the weekend at a height of 2,000 metres. Lava is now flowing from three craters on the mountain accompanied by blasts, black smoke and ash. The new craters, however, are far from any inhabited areas, experts stressed. Serious volcanic activity occurred in the summer of 2001. Viewers around the world were held spellbound by the beauty of the spectacle, which experts said was ONE OF THE MOST UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX ERUPTIONS IN THREE CENTURIES.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 18E was 189 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical storm CIMARON was 438 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical depression PAUL was 142 nmi NNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical storm Paul has hit the coast of the Mexican mainland after skirting around the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. It came ashore near La Reforma on the western coast, after being downgraded from hurricane status. Paul could still cause flash flooding after it dumps rain on the Sierra Madre mountains, forecasters say. Tropical storm Paul has reportedly killed two people. A 65-year-old American man was swept off a beach at Los Cabos by a wave and is presumed dead. A 23-year-old Mexican fisherman is also said to have died on Monday after slipping off wet rocks. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Sinaloa on the western mainland.

RUSSIA - a storm warning has been announced to the fleet over the approach of a cyclone towards the Kamchatka Peninsula southern coast. “The cyclone is approaching Kamchatka from the south and will begin to affect the peninsula next night. The atmospheric vortex will move towards the northwest part of the Pacific and on October 28 its influence on the peninsula will subside.” Meteorologists say that winds with force up to 20 metres per second and a storm are expected in the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk and Pacific areas adjacent to the southern coast of the peninsula due to the cyclone approach. Sleet precipitation is also possible in the Kamchatka region.

SNOW -
COLORADO - A fall storm hit parts of Colorado with as much as 25 inches of snow on Thursday, setting off avalanches and rockslides and closing roads and schools. “Actually, it’s not unusual for us to get snowfalls at this time of year. What is UNUSUAL IS THE AMOUNTS, and we are seeing RECORD SNOWFALL for the month of October.”

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
CALIFORNIA - A wind-driven wildfirenear Palm Springs engulfed a fire engine Thursday, killing four firefighters, and up to 400 people were trapped in a recreational vehicle park when flames blocked the only road out, officials said. The firefighters were trying to protect a house as hot Santa Ana winds drove flames through the desert hills northwest of Palm Springs and forced hundreds of people from their homes.

AUSTRALIA is unlikely to receive drought-breaking rain before autumn next year, according to the National Water Commission's latest outlook.

Thursday, October 26, 2006 -

Why was Santa's little helper depressed?
Because he had low elf esteem.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/25 -
5.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 HONDURAS
5.0 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
SICILY - Mount Etna, Europe's largest volcano, continued erupting overnight to Thursday with a 2,000 metre-high lava flow streaming into the valley below. The glowing rock mass was flowing down the southerly face of the mountain. It was unclear whether a new crater had been opened or whether an old one had become active. The volcano started erupting on Sunday after a long period of dormancy. There have been several lava flows, but the eruption poses no risk to people in the region, according to the authorities. [There has also been a 5.7 quake in Sicily this morning.]

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm PAUL was 56 nmi WNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1257 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier is moving closer to Fiji earlier than expected, the weather office has warned. "The cyclone poses no direct threat to Fiji; its persistent movement will bring the cyclone closer to the group than earlier anticipated". The damaging gale force winds extend to 180km from the centre. Some parts of the country will experience strong winds as a result. The cyclone had consequently become a greater threat to Fiji than Vanuatu but "luckily the system has entered into unfavourable environmental conditions and is expected to weaken before getting within close proximity of the Fiji Group".

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PORTUGAL - A river burst its banks and swept a packed school bus off the road Wednesday after a night of heavy storms that authorities said caused the death of one person. A bus taking 52 children aged between seven and 14 to a school in central Portugal was knocked into a ditch by the current from a river that flooded surrounding countryside. Emergency workers up to their waists in fast-flowing, muddy water formed a human chain and pulled the children and three adults from the bus. In nearby Pombal, an elderly bedridden woman died when her home flooded. A woman in the same area was evacuated by helicopter after flood waters reached the first floor of her rural home. The fire department was also helping rescue stranded livestock. A school in the same area was evacuated midmorning when another swollen river burst its banks and flood levels started to rise. Three towns in central Portugal were on flood alert as river levels rose and dams approached their limits. The Civil Protection Service said it responded to 679 incidents of flooding, 335 fallen trees and 19 landslides. Dozens of roads were reported closed, mostly in central and northern areas. Trains stopped running on part of the country's main north-south rail line between Lisbon and Porto because of flooding. Trains in the southern Algarve region also ground to a halt after a tree fell on a power line and cut the electricity supply. On Monday, a German couple died in the Madeira Islands when their car was swept from a cliff and into the sea by a mudslide that occurred after days of heavy rain.

CANADA - A state of emergency has been called in a small northwestern Newfoundland community amid safety concerns, after an unexplainable landslide dumped soil into the ocean. A team of engineers was brought into Daniel's Harbour to assess the risk after a landslide last Friday morning. "As of yet, there is no idea what precipitated the landslide. It was not raining." The landslide sent between 20,000 and 30,000 cubic metres of soil, which amounts to about 2,000 dump-truck loads, into the ocean. "There were houses on the edge of the cliffside and now I guess they are even closer to the cliffside." (photo)

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRIA - The temperature in Austria in general and Vienna in particular has been the WARMEST FOR THE PAST 35 YEARS. The temperature in Vienna is still above 20 degrees Celsius, which is ABNORMAL this time of the year. People are still sitting in open air cafes and public parks to make the best of this UNUSUALLY WARM weather. Meanwhile, the meteorological bureau predicted a continuation of this weather pattern and forecast temperatures close to 26 degrees Celsius by the end of the current month. "The usual temperature for this time of the year is around 10 degrees Celsius." Weather experts blame this unusually warm weather on warm wind blowing from South Western Europe, specifically from North Africa. Austria's weather was almost never above 30 degrees. But this year it broke the rule and went above 30 for quite some time, specifically in the village of Villach, where it reached 34 degrees on Sept 4. The weather for September was sometimes hotter than in August. Last year's weather also displayed some UNUSUAL thunder and lightning patterns, and devastating floods.

ENGLAND - Plants and flowers across Oxfordshire have been tricked into a second bloom as summery weather extends into the autumn months. Gardeners across the county are just as confused as the flora, with trees sprouting spring blossom and flowers such as roses and dahlias continuing to appear well beyond their expected season. "Normally everything's gone by now. The begonias have probably lasted six weeks longer this year." This is Oxfordshire's LONGEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1689, with record temperatures nationally in July and September. Meteorologists warned that fears about FREAK weather conditions caused by global warming could soon outstrip gardeners' delight at late-blooming plants.

UNUSUAL WEATHER SEASON -
ARIZONA - Valley had longer, wetter, and earlier monsoon - Phoenix reported a 75-day monsoon and considerably higher levels of rainfall across the state for 2006 in comparison to the average 55-day monsoon with limited rainfall. In the city of Tucson, about 100 miles southwest of Safford, rainfall during monsoon exceeded 10 inches. This level of rainfall hasn’t occurred since 1983. Last year, the monsoon started on July 18. This year, however, monsoon began almost a month earlier, on June 28 in Safford. Phoenix reported a stretch in the monsoon to Sept. 30. A large monsoon storm in August blew out newly installed calverts in Noon Creek because of massive amounts of water from rainfall. In the month of July, the mountain received more than 7.5 inches of rain at Columbine and was followed by more than 6 inches of rain in August. From the end of June to mid-September, the rainfall was reportedly at 16.65 inches on the mountain. Rainfall and other UNUSUAL WEATHER is still occurring well into October. In the east part of the Gila Valley, the month of September hit a RECORD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES. “We had a very cool September with an average mean of 70 degrees with the low temperatures, and that broke a record from data recorded since 1948.” September is usually ten degrees warmer than this year’s average high of 84 degrees.

ITALY - The high quality of this year's grape production was in a way a surprise, given the UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN which at times seemed as if the seasons had changed places". "We had summer heat in the spring and almost autumn weather in August."

Wednesday, October 25, 2006 -

Where does a bird go when it loses it's tail?
To a retail store.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/24 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

WYOMING - A swarm of more than 70 small earthquakes shook the ground near Old Faithful geyser earlier this month. The largest was a magnitude 2.4, barely enough to be felt. The swarm of 74 quakes lasted several hours Oct. 14. The tight cluster of earthquakes was moderate compared with others in Yellowstone's past, including one in April 2004 in which more than 400 earthquakes were recorded over three days. "It piques our curiosity, but it's not out of the range of normal behavior." The earthquakes were more likely caused by the underground movement of hot water and gas, rather than the migration of magma.

A spate of rain is all it takes to set off some earthquakes. That's what a team of German geologists has discovered after monitoring swarms of tiny tremors in the mountains of Bavaria. The rise in water pressure within porous rocks as rain soaks into the ground can start quakes on hair-trigger faults. "Tiny changes can have big effects." "In most places, the shallow, brittle crust is close to failure. The effect of rain could be just enough to send it over the edge." But for deeper earthquakes, the water could take many years to penetrate, making it hard to be sure about cause and effect.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm PAUL was 64 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1302 nmi N of Auckland, New Zealand.

Hurricane Paul weakened to a tropical storm Tuesday, but lashed Mexico's Baja California peninsula with rain and winds today while high waves washed a US tourist from a beach resort. A large wave swept away the US tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. He is missing and presumed dead. The storm was about 210km southwest of Los Cabos and was expected to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa. Sinaloa state, an important agricultural area, took a hit from Hurricane Lane last month. Lane, which killed three people, seriously damaged tomato crops in the state, helping push inflation in Mexico to its highest monthly rate in six years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
GUATEMALA - At least six persons died Tuesday, including a child, from a landslide off a mountain that buried a village of the La Democracia municipality. Pouring rains over the last few days provoked the landslide, leaving another six people injured and eight not accounted for, all belonging to the same family. The rains also provoked road interruptions, making it difficult to reach several communities in the border with Mexico. The rise of at least seven rivers in the south of the country flooded 40 villages, leaving 10 thousand homeless.

SOUTH KOREA - People in Kangwon Province yesterday suffered damage from heavy rain and strong winds in weather that was UNUSUAL for this time of year. Heavy rain warnings and alerts were issued in the province. Hyangnobong peak received 252 millimeters of rainfall; Misiryong, 260 millimeters; Sokcho, 201 millimeters; and Kosong, 87 millimeters. The rainfall was the LARGEST RECORDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCTOBER in the regions. Winds with a speed of 20 meters per second also struck the region, and strong wind warnings were issued. Trees and signboards on many streets were blown down. A dozen fishing vessels that were docked at harbors broke loose and many sank. High wave warnings were issued for western and eastern coastal areas, and mountainous regions in the central peninsula had gusts of wind, hailstones, thunder and lightning. Other parts of the nation also had 20-100 millimeters of rain, a great amount for autumn, from Sunday through yesterday. The rainfall relieved a drought that has lasted more than two months. "Although the mercury fell, [the temperature] is still higher than that of average years, as it has been too high this fall. But people are advised to limit their risk of catching a cold due to the sudden large temperature changes," a weatherman said.

SNOW / COLD -
INDIA - UNUSUAL autumn showers over the weekend have caused the temperature in the Himachal Pradesh capital to plummet to a RECORD LOW Monday, making it the COLDEST OCTOBER DAY IN 33 YEARS. Shimla recorded a maximum temperature of 11 degrees Celsius and a minimum of six degrees Monday. Normally October is marked by clear blue skies and the temperature here hovers between 19 degrees and 25 degrees. But heavy rains last week set the mercury to decrease as icy winds lashed the town. The higher reaches in the state have been receiving snowfall while the mid and lower hills have been getting rain and hail.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - A fire that has raged for almost seven weeks is one of 30 burning throughout the Top End, making this year's BUSHFIRE SEASON ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD. A senior fire control officer has not seen anything like it during his 17 years on the job, and says 2006 has been tough on the Northern Territory. "The fire weather has been especially extreme this season, the winds and the dry nature of the vegetation have created most of the problem. In the last five years we've had 12 to 15 extreme fire danger days and this year there has been 31."

Tuesday, October 24, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why doesn't glue stick to the inside of the bottle?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/23 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.6 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
6.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

HAWAII - One week after Hawaii's biggest earthquake in 23 years, damage estimates are soaring, and a review is underway of how state, emergency and utility officials responded. Initial estimates after the magnitude-6.7 and 6.0 quakes Oct. 15, were less than $10 million, but the figure surpassed $100 million by the end of the week as damage to hotels, roads, a harbor and homes was discovered. More than 100 aftershocks followed the back-to-back earthquakes, including one that measured 3.4 Saturday. Workers began draining two 50-million-gallon reservoirs Friday after inspectors found water leaking from holes caused by the quakes. "We will never know how close we came to a major disaster." Meanwhile, debate continued over initial responses to the earthquakes. An Emergency Broadcast System alert from Honolulu County Civil Defense was sent one hour after the first quake, which struck at 7:07 a.m., but it was not broadcast because stations did not activate a switch for the message to come through. Two hours after the first quake, the state Civil Defense got the first message to residents. By then, several radio stations were broadcasting reports from listeners and other sources. "There was a major failure somewhere. By 8 a.m., everyone knew what had happened, but no one officially was telling us."

PHILIPPINES - The Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said on Monday it has recorded 700 aftershocks after a 5.2 magnitude earthquake shook central Philippines Friday. More aftershocks could be felt in Marinduque, Mindoro and southern Batangas in coming days, although the tremors are decreasing. About 10 quakes hit the Philippines every day in average, however, most of the quakes are so small in magnitude that they are rarely felt. Over the past 30 years, only three major, destructive quakes took place in the Philippines.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane PAUL was 256 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1312 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

On its current track, Cyclone XAVIER may cause destructive storm force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Vanuatu expects frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms, damaging heavy swells, and flooding, including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas. (satellite photo)

Category 1 Hurricane PAUL weakened this morning, but emergency workers remained on standby to evacuate thousands of residents from the San Jose del Cabo resort in Mexico. About 2,000 to 3,000 families could be evacuated from flood-risk areas to 49 shelters, mostly schools, ahead of Paul, the third hurricane this season to threaten the area. A trough of low pressure has been sending storms this season on a track that takes them toward Mexico's Baja peninsula.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - a week-end cyclonic storm and hail damaged 172 houses and ravaged farms and paddy fields belonging to 150 families in Aizawl district. 12 houses in and around Aizawl city were completely flattened, while the majority of the houses were badly damaged. Paddy crops belonging to 83 shifting cultivators' families were destroyed in nearby Phulpui village just ahead of the harvest time in November. Farms or gardens where flowers like anthurium, beans and vegetables, belonging to 66 families in nearby Durtlang village were also extensively damaged. Paddy fields were also damaged at Bungkawn. The cyclonic storm took the people by surprise as no warning was given by the MET office and the storm was UNLIKELY considering the time of the year.

Fish Die-Off - updated Tuesdays.UPDATED STARTING NEXT WEEK.
(Drought, Heat, and Wildfires will be reported daily as info is available)
Disease - updated Mondays
Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays.
Unusually High Tides / Freak Waves - updated Fridays.
Unusual Animal Behavior - updated Thursdays.
Crop Failures, Food Shortages - updated Wednesdays

Monday, October 23, 2006 -

LEARNED THE HARD WAY - when you take a dog on a car ride, he loves to stick his head out the window, but if you blow in his face, he gets very mad at you.

QUAKES -
So far this morning -
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.6 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.2 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/22 -
5.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
10/21 -
5.9 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
10/20 -
5.6 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.6 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 CENTRAL PERU
6.5 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 KORYAKIA, RUSSIA

AUSTRALIA - Geoscience Australia says earthquakes in New South Wales, Victoria and off the Western Australian coast over the past few days are unrelated. Australia experiences earthquakes "continuously". "I don't yet regard this as too far outside the norm...It is true we have had two magnitude fours, but I really don't think it is anything unusual." An earthquake measuring 2.5 on the Richter scale shook parts of Melbourne. Residents of Melbourne's south-east reported a loud noise and shaking floors as a small earthquake hit the city late last night. A tremor measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale was recorded 2,300 kilometres off the Western Australian coast around 7:00pm AWST. Authorities say two dams in central western New South Wales are free of any structural damage after Saturday night's earthquake, which measured four on the Richter scale.
Calls were received from people in St Kilda, Brighton, Caulfield, Elsternwick, South Yarra and Clayton reporting sounds of explosions and rattling windows over three minutes from about 10.40pm. The Country Fire Authority received calls from people in Dandenong North and Narre Warren North, also reporting a deep thud and the sound of explosions. A spokesman for the authority at Dandenong said officers "heard the rumble" and likened it to the sensation of "driving over a level crossing".
A quake Friday struck shortly before 8pm (AEST) at Wyangala. There have been no reports of damage, although people from as far as 100 kilometres away have reported feeling the tremor. "It sounds like people have felt it from a couple of hundred kilometres away, which is a little UNUSUAL for a magnitude four." Some said the quake caused more noise than shaking. "I've been in earthquakes before, and your clothes hangers all shake in the cupboard and all that sort of thing, but it didn't do that. It was the noise, it was more like a thunderstorm, like a rolling thunderstorm." The sound lasted about 20 seconds. "It wasn't long but it was STRANGE."

TURKEY - Locals in Manyas said they saw a `ball of fire’ during the earthquake that struck Turkey’s Marmara region Saturday. The fireball was seen on Manyas Lake, the epicentre of the quake. The quake measured 5.2 on the Richter scale. The governor’s office of Balikesir decided to seek answers about the strange phenomenon after a panicked reaction from locals. “Locals have claimed to have seen a ball of fire appear above the lake during the earthquake. We have, as a result, asked members of the MTA to look into the matter.”
The medium-strength 5.2 earthquake rattled the northwestern Turkish city of Balikesir, causing panic among nearby residents, especially those in Istanbul. The earthquake happened at 9:18 p.m. Friday at a depth of 12.9 km near Lake Manyas, a nature reserve in Balikesir.

PHILIPPINES - fifth earthquake felt since Friday's 5.2 magnitude - Another earthquake rocked parts of Metro Manila and southern Luzon early Sunday. Four earthquakes and three minor aftershocks hit Metro Manila and southern Luzon on Friday and early Saturday. PHIVOLCS recorded a 3.7 magnitude earthquake at 2:23 a.m., with the epicenter located 31 kilometers southeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro. The tremor was felt strongest at intensity 3 in Puerto Galera in Oriental Mindoro, and the cities of Makati and Taguig in Metro Manila. An intensity 2 quake also jolted Quezon City. PHIVOLCS said there were no reports of damage and casualties. The institute said that the possible source of the earthquake was the movement along the eastern segment of the Lubang Fault.

PERU - A strong earthquake, measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale, hit near the coast of central Peru in the pacific early on Friday. There was no immediate information on casualties except for some light damage to houses. The quake came at 5:48 a.m. local time (1048 GMT) with an epicenter 90 km northwest of Pisco city in the central Peruvian department of Ica, at a depth of 43 km. This is the strongest tremor Peru has suffered since the start of the year. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre cautioned that people along coasts within 100km of the epicentre should be aware of the threat of a local tsunami, although there was no threat of a Pacific-wide tsunami. Quakes are common in the South American country, and 78 quakes have taken place this year up to October.

CALIFORNIA - A 4.5-magnitude earthquake centered near The Geysers rocked Lake County Friday morning. A series of aftershocks followed throughout the day, with the largest - 3.9 in magnitude - hitting at 4:31 p.m. The 4.5 earthquake, which occurred at eight seconds after 10 a.m., had an epicenter 13 miles east of Cloverdale and five miles northeast of The Geysers. The U.S. Geological Survey said Friday the quake was the SECOND-STRONGEST MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE RECORDED in The Geysers. Numerous aftershocks ranging in magnitude from less than 1 up to 3.9 occurred Friday. Between the hours of midnight and 7 p.m. Friday there were approximately 56 earthquakes recorded in Lake County. Most took place around The Geysers, Cobb and Anderson Springs. However, a 1.4-magnitude micro earthquake hit the Clearlake Oaks area at approximately 11:44 a.m. Seismic activity in the Cobb Mountain area is created when power plants inject water into the ground to produce steam to generate energy. When the water is pumped out of the ground and reinjected elsewhere the stress fields are caused to change and the earthquakes result. A Cobb resident for 18 years said he has never before experienced his books falling off the shelves and pictures coming down from his walls like he did Friday.

WASHINGTON - A 3.2 magnitude earthquake caused a rockfall at Mount St. Helens Sunday. Scientists at the Johnson Ridge Observatory say a chunk of the current lava spine fell off, and now the spine has a v-shaped notch in the tip. Ash shot about 4000ft in the air and because of heavy winds on the mountain, visitors were able to see a bit of a show.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mt. Bulusan in Sorsogon exploded again Thursday afternoon, belching an ash column from the volcano crater summit for the second time this month, signifying that the volcano's restiveness is still high and the volcano is still in an abnormal state.

Thousands of mud volcanoes have been found from Alaska to Australia. They range from tiny seeps to cones 500 metres (1,640 ft) tall. Risks from volcanoes that ooze mud rather than spew lava have long been underestimated worldwide, even with a cataclysmic mudflow in Java that has swamped an area the size of Monaco and forced 10,000 people from their homes. Mud volcanoes are rarely deadly since they more often seep rather than explode. But they can cause disasters, ranging from subsidence to tsunamis. Mud volcanoes are often caused by a build-up of pressure from sediments crushed several kilometres below the surface that release methane and other gases. They are often found near oil and gas deposits, also caused by a crush of organic matter. In Azerbaijan, a large mud volcano that erupted in 2001 released giant flares of methane.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane PAUL was 410 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Cyclone XAVIER was 1190 nmi S of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Tropical Storm Paul formed off Mexico‘s west coast Saturday. Paul spun away from Mexico's west coast on Sunday, but forecasters predicted it could become a hurricane and turn towards land within two days. Paul was forecast to gradually shift to the north-east and skirt the southern tip of Baja California, hitting mainland Mexico around the state of Sinaloa early in the week as a hurricane.

The South Pacific's first tropical cyclone, Xavier, is intensifying north of Vanuatu. Cyclone Xavier is slowly moving towards the north of Vanuatu and is expected to pose a direct threat to Vanuatu. Fiji faces no threat from the tropical cyclone, but will experience some rain due to a ridge of high pressure. The Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre is predicting an above average number of cyclones in the South Pacific due to the moderate effects of El Nino. Xavier struck the Solomon Islands at about 06:00 GMT this morning. Projected path

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
MACQUARIE ISLAND - Erosion and heavy spring rains have caused a large landslip on Macquarie Island, in the Southern Ocean about 1500 kilometres south-east of Tasmania, killing penguins in an important colony. The fragile sub-Antarctic world heritage area has been overrun with more than 100,000 rabbits in recent years, which are stripping the island bare of its plants. About 500 square metres of soil gave way due to the combination of heavy spring rains and severe erosion caused by the rabbits. "The landslide... has come down onto an area where the penguins roost, and are active. These are large penguins, so the topsoil has come down the slope and landed on the flat surface near the ocean. The penguins have chicks in place next to the adults and a number of penguins were killed by the landslide.We can't tell how many because it's on the edge of the rookeries."

OZONE HOLE -
The Antarctic ozone hole has BROKEN TWO RECORDS this year for the size of its area and depth. "From September 21st to 30th, the average area of the ozone hole was the LARGEST EVER OBSERVED, at 10.6 million square miles." "The depleted layer has an UNUSUAL vertical extent this year, so it appears that the 2006 ozone hole will go down as a record-setter." Measurements taken in October also found that nearly all of the ozone in the layer between eight and 13 miles above the Earth's surface had been destroyed. Part of the reason behind the extent of the ozone hole is colder than average temperatures. Warmer temperatures lead to smaller holes, while colder ones cause deeper and larger holes. Scientists have estimated that the hole will decrease in area by about 0.1 to 0.2 per cent for the next five to ten years. However, this decrease is marked each year by large variations caused by weather fluctuations. According to the United Nations the ozone hole will fully recovery by 2065.

Friday, October 20, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Time may be a great healer, but it's a lousy beautician.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/19 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SOUTHEASTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA

HAWAII - Sunday's earthquake damaged 1173 homes on the Big Island. Twenty-nine are considered uninhabitable. Preliminary damage estimates from the quake have hit 73 million dollars. President Bush has declared a major disaster. One of the reasons the island didn't suffer more damage is the strict building codes that have evolved over decades of natural disasters. Buildings on the Big Island must meet the strictest level of any of the Hawaiian Islands. There are no buildings taller than 100 feet. There are also no highway overpasses.
Hawaii's two big quakes may have been two independent events, rather than a quake and an aftershock. The 6.7-magnitude quake struck 12.5 miles (20 kilometers) northeast of the Big Island's Kona airport at a depth of 24 miles (39 kilometers) at 7:07 a.m. local time Sunday. "This was not a small earthquake. This was a big one." Seven minutes later, the 6.0-magnitude quake struck 27 miles (43 kilometers) north of the airport at a depth of about 12.5 miles (20 kilometers). The difference in depths establishes that the two are "independent." But other seismologists said it is too early to categorize the magnitude-6.0 event. Scientists still need to analyze the pattern of aftershocks in the coming months before determining whether the smaller event was an aftershock or a triggered earthquake. "A major earthquake may trigger or activate a neighboring fault and start another good-sized earthquake." "Some of these earthquakes get worked on for years. Different techniques come up. People have different points of view." Aftershocks are a series of smaller earthquakes that occur after the main shock and in the same geographic area. Aftershocks can rock a region for months or years. Generally, the bigger the main shock, the more intense the aftershocks will be. Dozens of aftershocks have been recorded since the initial quake. By Wednesday evening, there had been 116 aftershocks. That number of aftershocks "is extremely low." "It is not a very energetic aftershock sequence. I would expect most of the aftershocks to die out in a month, at this rate." Since 1960, the Big Island has been hit with 31 earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.0. But Sunday's first earthquake was the largest recorded since a 6.7 occurred under the east flank of Mauna Loa Volcano on November 16, 1983. The island also experienced a 7.2-magnitude quake on November 29, 1975, and an estimated 7.9 temblor on April 2, 1868. The vast island — spread across more than 4,000-square miles of lava fields, rain forests and pasture lands — was formed by several volcanoes. Kilauea is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, spewing lava and expanding the island's surface.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - About 300 villagers were evacuated from the slopes of the Tungurahua volcano following a surprise eruption of ash, lava and incandescent rocks Wednesday night. No injuries were immediately reported. Experts have warned that renewed explosions could come any time from the volcano 135 kilometers (85 miles) south of the capital of Quito. A violent eruption in mid-August killed four people and left two others missing and still unaccounted for. Nearly 5,000 homes were destroyed or severely damaged and some 190,000 hectares (475,000 acres) of farmland were covered by ash. Thousands of people were also evacuated in July during an earlier eruption. Unlike that eruption, which followed months of loud, booming explosions and rumbling, the smaller explosion late Wednesday came with no warning. "There wasn't a single sound. There was fire and lava that made us take precautionary measures." The upper slopes of the volcano have been mostly deserted since August. Pressure has been building inside the volcano since early September. "What we have seen now is evidence that something there could be something similar to the episodes in July and August" coming. "Inside the ground there is a chamber of magma much larger than the volcano itself."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

Hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. In the 1960s heyday of cloudseeding, the U.S. military undertook "Project Stormfury," with planes spraying silver iodide into hurricanes to form a new larger "eyewall" that would weaken the overall storm. Results were mixed and the program ended. More recently, a study found that people could indeed modify hurricanes - without realizing they were doing it. Detailed statistical analysis showed that over the past 30 years or so hurricanes and tropical storms have acted differently DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK. It turned out tropical cyclones along the Atlantic coast were markedly weaker on weekends. The researchers concluded that the buildup of pollution from industry and transportation through the work week was acting as the creators of Project Stormfury had wanted, as a stormweakener. Actually, it now appears that Tropical Storm Chris experienced a kind of "pollution death" as it sucked in a lot of dust crossing the Atlantic. So "through our actions we humans may indeed be influencing hurricanes."

Thursday, October 19, 2006 -

Why did the parrot wear a raincoat?
So he could be Polyunsaturated.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/18 -
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA
6.2 VANUATU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

The 2006 hurricane season has been extremely kind to the U.S. compared to 2005. It will be recorded as a year with three landfalling tropical storms in the U.S. and no U.S. hurricanes (unless that changes between now and the end of November). Going back to 1950, only five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. after October 17th. But very often in quiet years (and also active years) we find weather events with huge impact that never get their event stamped into the historical storm/hurricane record book. These are the big rain events, like the one October 16 in southeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. This strong surge of tropical moisture on the verge of becoming a tropical depression (if it were not for shear) rushed north into east Texas and Louisiana as it interacted with an approaching upper-level trough and surface frontal boundary and slid east into Mississippi. The resulting flooding rains were worse for some than what can happen in many tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. More reports keep coming in, with the highest so far being 14 1/2 inches in Kountze, Texas. This was a three-state flooding rainfall, not just a localized event. Much damage resulted; with 19 tornadoes (preliminary count). This big rain/flood event in the east Texas area was not their first during the 2006 hurricane season. One of the first "big" tropical weather impacts to the U.S. (just after Alberto affected the eastern states), occurred on June 18-19 in the form of flooding rains in the greater Houston, Texas area. They may end up getting two of the most significant tropical weather impacts from the 2006 hurricane season. Is it time to warn the public based on the potential impacts to land, rather than on a sterile scientific definition of "what is a tropical cyclone?"

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
LOUISIANA - the Governor has declared a state of emergency for 11 parishes in northern Louisiana hit hard by stormy weather this week. The National Weather Service says the region received the most rain it's gotten in a single storm since Tropical Storm Allison in 1989. More than 200 homes were flooded or otherwise damaged in the storm. One of the hardest-hit areas was Grayson, a town in north-central Louisiana's Caldwell Parish. The weather service says the town received 17 inches of rain.

WIND -
AUSTRALIA - Residents of the Geelong suburb of Corio are repairing their homes after a FREAK storm ripped through the area on Tuesday night, causing hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage. Metal sheets from a carport were blown hundreds of metres away, trees uprooted and roofs damaged by a five-minute wind gust of over 100 km/h just after 10pm. The State Emergency Service described the weather event as a "mini-tornado" or a "dry microburst". Tuesday night's low pressure system was UNUSUAL because cool changes in spring usually bring good rainfall.

SNOW / COLD -
NEW YORK - the number of homes and businesses still without power finally dipped below 100,000 on Wednesday after last week's surprise snowstorm. Storm-related deaths stood at 12 after the nearly two-foot snowfall. Several hospitals reported overcrowding over the weekend because they were unable to discharge patients to homes without electricity or on streets blocked by trees or downed power lines. The storm last Thursday and Friday knocked out electricity to more than 380,000 homes and businesses.

UTAH - An unexpected autumn storm dumped about five inches of snow in Cedar City and surrounding areas early Tuesday morning, causing numerous automobile accidents and wreaking havoc on some trees. The storm that surprised Southern Utahns on Tuesday morning was caused by a RARE weather occurrence in which the precipitation is so heavy and intense that it drops the freezing level by a few hundred feet. "It's uncommon and a fairly difficult forecasting problem." "I haven't seen the damage in trees like this before. ... This is tremendously wet (snow)."

HEAT -
CHINA - Shanghai citizens still waiting for autumn - As the middle of October passes, residents in China's biggest metropolis are still wearing sleeveless shirts as if it was August. And they are likely to continue for the time being, with meteorologists forecasting that Shanghai's temperature will remain UNUSUALLY high. "This year's weather is really VERY UNUSUAL." Normally autumn hits the city between the end of September and the beginning of October, but this year Shanghai has not yet entered the autumn season. Autumn comes only after the average highest temperature falls below 22 C for five consecutive days. But for the past week, the city's average daily highest temperature has stood at about 28 C. The average monthly temperature between June and August reached 28.7 C, the HIGHEST RECORDED since 1873, and a whole 2.7 degrees hotter than any other summer in the past 100 years. Due to the strong influence of subtropical high-pressure, cold air from North China was unable to reach Shanghai. The delayed autumn seems to be becoming more common, with the duration of autumn shrinking more and more because of the ever-growing impact of global warming. However experts believe that a sudden shift from summer to winter is not possible as the weather needs to go through a changing process. In addition to the high temperature, the city's summer was also marked by limited rainfall and arid conditions. In August, Shanghai received only 27.8mm of rain, 136.6mm less than the average for that time of year. September's rainfall of 86.1mm was 50 mm lower than the normal level. Shanghai is not unique in encountering the UNUSUAL autumn. Meteorologists said UNUSUALLY warm weather persisted throughout the country, with temperatures an average of 0.9 degrees higher.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 -

What do you call 20 rabbits moving backwards?
A receding hare line.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/17 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG
5.3 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.4 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 NEW BRITAIN
5.9 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.3 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS
6.8 NEW BRITAIN

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - The strong 6.5 undersea earthquake off the Papua New Guinea island of New Britain sparked a warning of a possible local tsunami, but emergency officials said there had been no reports of damage or casualties. Papua New Guinea emergency authorities said they were still checking with villages along the coast. In July 1998, two undersea quakes measuring 7.0 created three tsunamis that killed at least 2,100 people along the northern coast.

HAWAII - Sunday's 6.7 magnitude Hawaiian earthquake, the most powerful in the Pacific archipelago in two decades, caused more than $US 40 million in damages. Hawaiian officials said they expected the figure to rise. Repeated aftershocks have jolted Hawaiians as they struggle to return to normal. The biggest, a 4.0 magnitude temblor, hit the islanders early on Tuesday.
More than 200 aftershocks have occurred off the Big Island since early Sunday morning and they may continue for weeks. Typically, after large earthquakes, the seismicity slowly decreases, with fewer and weaker aftershocks. The big question now is to determine the mechanism of the earthquake. “If it was on the south flank of Kilauea or associated with the volcano, it would be a much more straightforward answer. But these are STRANGE DEPTHS AND LOCATIONS.” Seismologists are poring over the data to see if they can piece together what might have happened. They’re conducting surveys to see if there was any deformation. Crews are setting up global positioning system instruments on the west side of the island and remeasuring survey markers along the coast to see how far they moved. The observatory also has requested radar satellite data from foreign space agencies. “I expect we’ll see some interesting signals with radar deformation maps. This was an UNUSUAL kind of event and it happened in a place where we have lots and lots of instrumentation running.”
Fish jumped out of a lagoon at a resort in Hawaii just minutes before Sunday's 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck as if they knew it was coming, a witness says. "The windows on all of the rooms started to buckle back and swaying and to wobble and making a loud noises and the rumbling was just intense."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE.

WIND -
UNITED KINGDOM - Hurricane strength winds struck Castlepoint at the weekend in a RARE three-day battering that took out power supplies and downed trees at the coastal resort. Localised storm winds started blowing in the area very late on Thursday night and only twice lulled for two hours at a time before easing overnight on Sunday. The sustained period of the windstorm was "UNCOMMON" despite the location being prone to briefer bouts of high winds. The winds in the period blew almost constantly at about 60km/h from very early Friday and reached "storm force gusting above hurricane strength" gales clocked at over 150km/h on Saturday.

HEAT / DROUGHT -
CANADA - In most of British Columbia rivers throughout the province, except for the Kootenays and the Columbia basin, are showing low to extremely low levels. "We're having RECORD LOWS all the way down the Fraser. We have a long record for the both the Thompson and Fraser, and this is the lowest they've been since 1912." Poor snow conditions last winter led to the low water levels. The problem has a number of implications. "Fisheries is an obvious one. The sockeye run on the North Coast in August was expected to have 8 million fish. The last I head from DFO (Department of Fisheries and Oceans) was they were having trouble finding any fish."The record lows could lead to well problems. Communities which take their water directly from a river before treatment are probably having trouble already. Agricultural operations have already been impacted by the low water levels.

AUSTRALIA - "On any measure, this is an extreme drought. Climate change has hit in a much more dramatic manner that what we ever anticipated." What we're actually experiencing now was predicted to happen in about 2050. Around the country the picture's the same - dams which historically provided nearly 99 per cent of the country's urban water have fallen to RECORD LOW LEVELS and there's less water coming in, prompting alarm in cities both big and small. We have about 16 months supply in our dams if we didn't get any further run-off. Even in good times Australian dams must capture roughly six times as much water as dams in Europe need for the same yield because of erratic rainfall and high evaporation. But these days the rain's hardly falling and virtually every urban centre has been experiencing a RECORD WATER SHORTAGE. There's a growing belief among scientists that rainfall across the south of the continent has moved south, leaving mainland dams dry while more rain falls on the ocean and Tasmania. And there's been a similar rainfall movement along the eastern seaboard. In the nation's fastest growing region, from Sydney to south east Queensland, rain is falling on the cities but not within the dam catchments.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Almonds are a member of the peach family.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/16 -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.4 GILBERT ISLANDS, KIRIBATI, REG
5.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE

HAWAII - Sunday's 6.7-magnitude earthquake generated a 4-inch tsunami that was measured by Kawaihae Harbor's tide gauge at 7:17 am.
Hawaii suffered major road and port damage in the most powerful quake in the Pacific archipelago in two decades, but reported no deaths or serious injuries on Monday much to islanders' amazement.
Hawaii quake blamed on volcanic stress - Hawaii's Big Island is rattled by thousands of minor earthquakes a year, mainly from volcanic eruptions. But the strongest and most destructive types - like Sunday's magnitude-6.7 that caused blackouts and landslides - are RARE and are not caused by eruptions, but by the buildup of stress deep in the crust as volcanoes grow and spread, experts say. Volcanic earthquakes - those triggered by eruptions - are usually detected by the hundreds of swarms of temblors that occur several hours or days before an eruption. The type of quake seen on Sunday, a tectonic earthquake, does not occur in any regular pattern and is harder to predict.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
NONE

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
TEXAS - At least 4 dead in flooding - Heavy thunderstorms brought torrential rains, flooding and tornadoes to Southeast Texas Monday, killing four people, ripping roofs off mobile homes, and trapping rush-hour drivers on flooded, tangled freeways. As much as 10 inches of rain fell in the Houston-Galveston area. Several tornadoes touched down.
In Louisiana, three people were hurt early Monday when strong winds blew through the fishing community of Leeville, 90 miles south of New Orleans

HEAT / DROUGHT -
AUSTRALIA - Livestock prices across NSW are in freefall, with farmers selling off RECORD numbers of sheep and cattle as the drought worsens.
Farmers are in despair as the drought sears the land - In some places the creeks have not flowed in a decade. The crippling effect of the fifth straight year of drought has some farmers shooting their animals. For others, the plight has become even more desperate and every four days officials record the suicide of another farmer. Food prices are set to rise because of plummeting production. Some farmers are asking whether farming across vast tracts of Australia has been wiped out for good by global warming. The country’s most productive grain growing belt — southern Western Australia — is drying out faster than any other place on Earth. “Everyone says it will turn around, but these dry years have been the norm for us for such a long time now." “The worst thing is that you start to wonder if it’s ever going to rain again. It’s going to affect every dinner table over summer. This is because for the first time in many generations we have a drought that’s virtually across the southern half of the continent.” Australia is the world’s driest inhabited continent; only Antarctica has less rainfall.

CHINA - More than 400 cites in China are suffering from acute water shortages and 110 of those have reached a crisis point.

UNITED KINGDOM - Britain now seems to have a fifth season bridging the gap between summer and autumn. The new season, created by global warming, has been dubbed “sort-of-autumn” or summertumn. All across Britain, temperatures continue to be much more like summer than the colder months before winter. The idyllic unseasonal weather is likely to be repeated in years to come, according to the Met Office. The Met Office considers autumn to start on September 1 rather than on the autumn equinox — which fell on the 23rd this year. But this September was the HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN 234 years ago. “Maximum temperatures this month have been three to four degrees above average in places.” There have also been longer than average hours of sunshine. Last month the UK average was 170 hours — 17 per cent above normal.

POPULATION -
The US population will hit 300 million today, 39 years after reaching 200 million.

Monday, October 16, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - The easiest way to find something lost around the house is to buy a replacement.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/15 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.9 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
6.5 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
5.0 SE.OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

HAWAII - A magnitude 6.6 earthquake shook Hawaii early Sunday, it knocked out power and forced the Governor to declare a statewide disaster. On Hawaii Island a landslide blocked a major highway while boulders fell on roads, rock walls collapsed and televisions were knocked off stands.
This is what everyone has worried about: A sizeable earthquake hitting a populated area, with no way to predict it, and no way to anticipate the amount of damage done. Hawaii does not fit the mold of most major earthquake zones. It is considered a "hot spot," prone to earthquake activity, because of the rugged volcanoes that formed the island chain. But it is not on the juncture of two of the major tectonic plates that form the earth's crust, the seams where most earthquakes occur. The big island of Hawaii is made of five volcanoes, two of which — Mauna Loa and Kiluaea — remain active today. The strongest of Sunday's quakes was reported by the USGS to have been centered 24.2 miles below sea level, six miles southwest of Puako, Hawaii. The Hawaiian earthquake of Sunday morning is currently estimated to have been a 6.6, revised upward from a 6.3. In the three hours following, there were at least 45 aftershocks of magnitude 1.9 or greater.
Longtime residents of Hawaii say the earthquake that jolted them out of bed just after 7 a.m. local time was perhaps the biggest they've ever felt. "It went on for about a minute; it kept going and going and going and going. It was rolling and rolling. But it was the duration that was so dynamic about this earthquake. It just didn't seem to stop." The quake struck as heavy rain fell in parts of the state. This is the largest event in the Hawaiian Islands since 1983. "It was felt everywhere from the big island to Kauai and did significant damage on the big island. Fortunately, it generated only a very small tsunami." "Now when we look out at our beautiful coast, the water is a murky brown from many dirt cliff sides crumbling into the sea."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression Norman was 27 nmi W of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon Soulik was 370 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.

Former Tropical Storm Norman regenerated into a tropical depression Sunday and was lashing southwestern Mexico with heavy rains. The government issued a tropical storm warning for a swath of the Pacific Coast from the port city of Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, but discontinued it about 12 hours later. Late Sunday, Norman had maximum sustained winds near 55 kph (35 mph) and was centered 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the resort of Manzanillo. It had been speeding toward Mexico's coast, but slowed before becoming stationary and starting to dissipate. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Norman had been likely to strengthen again into a tropical storm before coming ashore. But as the storm weakened, it was unclear if its center would move ashore. Despite it's lost wind speed, Norman continued to dump heavy rain on southern Mexico. The hurricane center said it could drop 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) of rain over some areas with isolated accumulations of 38 centimeters (15 inches), threatening flash floods and mudslides. Norman formed far out in the Pacific on Oct. 9, and quickly became a tropical storm before weakening into a tropical depression and disintegrating further. But it regenerated before dawn on Sunday and began heading straight for Mexico.

Tropical storm Soulic, Asia's 19th major storm of the year, is centered far out in the Pacific Ocean but is expected to bring gales to the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan straits and oceans south of Japan. The storm, packing winds or more than 140 kilometers an hour is moving northeastly at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
A landslide killed a child on France's Reunion Island. A child was killed Sunday when part of a cliff collapsed onto a highway on the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion. A rock weighing 40-50 kilograms (88-110 pounds) fell onto the highway, crushing the back half of the car in which the child was traveling. In March, two people were killed when part of the cliff broke off onto the same highway.

Sunday, October 15, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - In the 60's, people took acid to make the world weird. Now the world is weird and people take Prozac to make it normal.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/14 -
5.1 NORTHERN CHILE
10/13 -
5.2 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
5.1 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BANDA SEA

Did the nuclear test by North Korea on October 9 trigger earthquakes in the region? Apparently yes. The earthquake pattern between October 9 and 13 in East Asia, geologists say, was due to a disturbance in natural stress conditions of the subduction zone extending from Kuril island in the north to Phillipines islands in the south. They said it was apparent that the nuclear explosion did create stress along the trench. In the last two months, such earthquake "clusters" were not observed in the zone. Between October 9 and 11, the Phillippines islands experienced nearly 10 quakes with magnitudes varying from 4.2 to 6.3 on the Richter scale. Taiwan recorded a 5.6-magnitude quake, while Japan recorded a 5.8-magnitude temblor on October 10. Similarly, Kuril islands experienced a 6-magnitude quake. A plot of the epicentres on the tectonic map of East Asia clearly demonstrates the nuclear test released stress along the subduction zone, geologists pointed out. A 5.8-magnitude quake shook northern Japan on Tuesday evening, sparking fears that it was a second nuclear test by North Korea but this was proved wrong later. Instead, seismologists detected a series of earthquakes near Japan.

TSUNAMI -
FIJI - With seismic activity reported to be increasing in the region, the National Disaster Management Center is now taking steps to improve the time in which a tsunami warning would be issued for the Fiji group.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04C was 662 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon SOULIK was 486 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.

Tropical Storm Soulik - Okinawa and Japan’s main islands appear to be safe from Tropical Storm Soulik, which continued to churn slowly northwest toward Iwo Jima but was forecast to curve sharply northeast by the weekend and dissipate well to the east of Tokyo. Okinawa might experience some “pretty significant waves” and “something in the next day or two as far as wind and increased chance of showers not associated with feeder bands but because it’s in the area.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CHINA - Flooding and landslides caused by torrential rains in south-western China have left at least 20 people dead or missing and 11 others injured. Heavy downpours from October 6 to 12 in the mountainous Honghe prefecture of Yunnan province triggered the flooding and landslides.

MALAYSIA - Heavy rains triggered a landslide that submerged an entire village in eastern Malaysia while a tree fell onto a railway car carrying foreign and local tourists, but no one was hurt in either incident. The monsoon rains had loosened soil on hillsides. Around 100 villagers from Sepanggar in eastern Sabah state were evacuated after elders sounded the alarm when they spotted trees swaying on a nearby hillside. Within minutes, as many as 15 houses were crushed by a mudslide. All the villagers managed to get out of their houses before the early Thursday morning mudslide. Meanwhile, 40 passengers, including 29 foreign tourists, had to walk for an hour to the nearest train station after a tree fell on their railcar in southwestern Sabah Thursday.

SNOW / COLD -
CANADA - Thousands of people in Ontario's Niagara region were still without electricity Saturday after a fall snowstorm Environment Canada describes as of "historic proportions." The outages continued more than 24 hours after a RECORD-BREAKING snowstorm roared across Lake Erie into southern Ontario and western New York.
NEW YORK - Having just set a RECORD for the "snowiest" October day, the city of Buffalo in western New York state braced for more Friday as the season's first snowfall closed schools and left 155,000 customers without electricity.

Friday, October 13, 2006 -

TRYING TO GET HEALTHY - I tried jogging, but it made the ice jump right out of my martini and put my cigarette out.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/12 -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
5.4 TURKMENISTAN
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.7 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION

VOLCANOES -
INDIA - After spewing smoke and molten rock for the past 16 months, India's only active volcano appears to be sputtering out. The volcano on Barren Island in the Andaman archipelago erupted in May 2005 following the massive undersea earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra that generated the devastating December 2004 tsunami. "Volcanic activity in the entire area of the Andaman and Nicobar region is calming down." The release of huge quantities of molten rock and the resulting decline in pressure inside the volcano had likely led to the decreased activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 690 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon SOULIK was 595 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
KENYA - Five Kenyan toddlers died on Thursday after being buried alive in a landslide at a heavily populated slum area near Kenya's main port. The victims, all under the age of five, were playing in a gorge near Mombasa's Mburukenge slum when the earth above them collapsed, sending a surge of mud down the slope. "We think the landslide was caused by recent heavy rains."

MALAYSIA - Landslide destroys 17 squatter houses - A total of 17 houses and a surau in Kampung Lok Bunu were destroyed by a landslide, Thursday. No one was hurt in the incident at the squatter settlement as the residents saw the hillslope collapsing at about 8am and escaped the danger in time. The landslide at the settlement of about 70 houses occupied by 107 families was the second in five years. The first in 2001 claimed three lives. The squatters were advised to move to a safer site to avoid a similar incident as the weather lately had been unpredictable.

ALASKA - Heavy rains, flooding and mudslides have isolated several Alaskan cities. While some 200 residents once evacuated are now being allowed home, the southern Alaskan city of Valdez is now isolated, as the only highway connecting it with the outside world has been washed out. Floodwaters so severely damaged a 66-mile stretch of highway that it could be closed for up to a week. In two days the area received between eight and ten inches of rain - with more than six inches of rain falling in one 24 hour period, prompting mudslides and flash flooding. The city of Cordova - south of Valdez - saw at least 22 inches of rain in only a few days. High water cut off the main highway into town and the Cordova airport is also flooded. The area also saw severe flooding in August. Seward and parts of the Kenai Peninsula also reported flooding.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - Hundreds of firefighters have battled blistering heat and strong winds as more than 250 fires broke out across Victoria today. By 4pm, 258 fires were burning as the mercury hit 36.5 degrees celsius in Melbourne - the HOTTEST OCTOBER DAY IN ALMOST 100 YEARS. The most severe fires are at Gippsland in the state's east, the only part of the state where a total fire ban has not been declared. "There's been very extreme fire behaviour today with fire height going to 10 metres and crowning (reaching tree tops)." "It's really unseasonal weather and is causing us considerable difficulty."

Thursday, October 12, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why isn't your nose 12 inches long?
Because then it would be a foot.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/11 -
5.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.7 OFF COAST OF MEXICO
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION <5.7 OFF COAST OF MEXICO
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TAIWAN REGION

TSUNAMI -
The last known tsunami to hit Europe was over 8,000 years ago. But new research reveals that there have been a number of deep-sea earthquakes since then, and that a landslide along the continental slopes could pose a serious risk to the cities and towns on the North Sea coast. It was a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions when an earthquake shook Norway's coast between Bergen and Trondheim about 8,150 years ago. The tremors ripped pieces of land the size of Iceland from shallow water and sent them crashing into the deep sea. Like a stone thrown into a pond, the landslide produced ripples of waves that spread at the speed of a train. Along the beaches of Scotland the waves were up to six meters (20 feet) high. Research has found that earthquakes in the seabed near Great Britain not only occurred more frequently in the past than had previously been thought (1089, 1508, 1607, 1686 and 1847), but that they were also stronger.

VOLCANOES -
EL SALVADOR - Authorities declared an alert on Tuesday for an area around the Chaparrastique volcano after the peak began rumbling ominously. 45,000 people who live within an area roughly 4 square kilometers (1.4 square miles) around the peak were urged to be ready for a possible call for evacuations. The volcano had been experiencing relatively small, imperceptible tremors for days, but in the last several hours had emitted "continuous, abnormal vibrations." Such vibrations are sometimes observed before an eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 869 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 457 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Soulik continued intensifying as it rumbled Tuesday toward Iwo Jima, and forecasters at Kadena Air Base said the chances were good that Okinawa could be on the itinerary for the 21st storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. It was still “about a week” from reaching Okinawa “as it stands right now … assuming nothing major changes in the atmosphere.”

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Flooding level in Nakhon Sawan is the HIGHEST IN 60 YEARS, Nakhon Sawan became the latest province submerged on Wednesday after nightlong heavy rains as 17 provinces have been inundated and almost two million people affected. Most parts of Nakhon Sawan are under water, with the water level in the province now reaching two metres. The situation could worsen, as Weather Department predicted more heavy rains for the following weeks.
Bangkok is bracing for floods to hit the city as the Chao Phraya river that flows through the capital has hit a RECORD-HIGH level 220 kilometres away. Bangkokians got a preview Tuesday night as torrential rains caused widespread flooding and paralyzed rush-hour traffic as water levels reached 70 to 80 centimetres at some major intersections. Before the high waters of the Chao Phraya, which drains most of north and central Thailand, hit an already soaked Bangkok, attempts were made to divert the high volume of water to fields and 2,000 rai of land owned by the royal family. 39 people have died since August 27 as a result of the inundations.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
TASMANIA - Tasmania's south has been hit by sweltering temperatures and strong winds and there is a "NEAR-RECORD fire danger ... (and) conditions have not peaked".

UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENTS -
ALASKA - Production at America's largest oil field will remain down for several days. That word Wednesday from BP. The oil company says operators are scrambling to clean hardened mud off high voltage electrical insulators that shorted and brought down the field's electrical system. A BP spokesman says a "HIGHLY UNUSUAL weather event" - three days of dust storms followed by rain at Prudhoe Bay - coated insulators with a mud that could not be cleaned off before electrical shorts brought down the power distribution system. The recent windy weather at Prudhoe Bay, where the lack of snow cover allowed dirt and debris to be whipped around, had slowed work at the oil field even before the power outage. Indeed, such storms have affected the power system at Prudhoe every three to four years but nothing on this recent scale. Strong winds were also blamed for a private-plane crash in Southwest Alaska, but all seven passengers survived.

MICHIGAN - a cold front moving into the area will bring rain and possibly several inches of snow tonight into Friday morning for inland portions of Charlevoix, Emmet and Cheboygan counties. “This is a PRETTY UNUSUAL weather set up. It is something we typically see more in November and December.” The cold front, currently over Minnesota, will come into the area this afternoon. This weather pattern will stay in the area through this weekend into next week, when temperatures will moderate. Normal highs during the month of October for Northern Michigan are in the upper 50s. However, starting this afternoon the temperature for the area will drop to the 30s in the evenings and 40s during the day. Those low temperatures will stick around through the weekend. “It's a good 15 degrees plus below average.” "It is way too early though, way too early [for several inches of snow]. If it was first part of November that is par for the course, but not the middle of October. Give me a break.”

NEW ZEALAND - UNUSUAL weather - This year's winter has been called ONE OF THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE. And now spring does not seem to be shaping up much better after recent gales and heavy rain in the north and snow down south on Tuesday.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - It takes long hours of practice to become a good chess player - maybe that's why they always seem so happy when they get to take a knight off.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/10 -
5.1 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA, REGION
5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon province shot ash columns into the air late Tuesday afternoon, signaling renewed volcanic activity after about four months of relative calm. Seismologists said Bulusan erupted nine times, spewing a thick column of ash three kilometers into the sky, which later drifted southeast to the towns of the towns of Casiguran, Irosin, and Bulan. The explosion may have been caused by contact of rainwater with hot rocks in Bulusan's crater but volcanologists would conduct further studies to check if the volcano was gearing for a violent eruption. There were no signs that the volcano would go into a major eruption. There was no prior warning because the province has remained without power since typhoon Milenyo’s passage. The volcano has exploded nine times between March 21 and June 20, prompting school closures and the evacuation of selected communities. It has not belched ash since June.

INDONESIA - The Japanese International Cooperation Agency warned of possible great lava slide along several rivers on Mt. Merapi's slope in Indonesia in the upcoming rainy season. A delegation to Yogyakarta said that the Gendol river was the most dangerous one as it had a large deposit of volcanic materials upstream. "Our survey showed that volcanic materials in Gendol river can be easily carried downstream by water." They stressed the need of an early warning system for tourists and residents working on the river downstream especially entering the rainy season as cold lava could strike anytime.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression NORMAN was 545 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression OLIVIA was 908 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 323 nmi N of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - many thousands of freehold farmlands belonging to local residents have been submerged since Monday afternoon only to save Bangkok from flooding. The move has remarkably reduced a large volume of overflow to the capital thanks to the great sacrifice by the King and his subjects in Ayutthaya, one of the hardest-hit in the flood woes. The king granted royal permission for the Royal Irrigation Department to divert excess waters overflow the Chao Phraya River basin to his vast plots of land in this central province to help absorb the deluge before it can flood Bangkok. Bangkok is expected to survive the critical period as high tide reaches its peak in the coming few days. As of Monday, the official death toll reported by the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation reached 39, while more than two million people have been made homeless or are otherwise suffering from severe effects of the flooding.
THAILAND & MYANMAR are suffering their WORST MONSOON FLOODS IN 11 YEARS.

GREECE - Flash floods caused by heavy rain swept through dozens of northern Greek villages for a second day on Tuesday damaging hundreds of homes, washing away roads and bridges and forcing rescue teams to airlift isolated villagers. The government declared a state of emergency for devastated regions in central and northern Greece. The heaviest damage was recorded near the northern city of Thessaloniki, Greece's second largest, which received more rain in the 24-hour period from Sunday than it regularly does in the whole month of October. Sections of national highways and bridges were washed away, effectively isolating dozens of villages and towns in the nearby Halkidiki area. Rail lines connecting the central Greek cities of Larisa and Volos were also washed away by the flood waters. The floods in northern Greece come just two months after the region suffered its worst-ever spate of fires which destroyed about 50,000 hectares of forests.

NEW MEXICO - A fast-moving storm dumped hail on Las Cruces and several parts of Dona Ana County overnight Monday. In less than a half-hour, the area was covered in a blanket of ice. The last time it hailed in the area was on Sept. 14. The hail, bigger than the size of a dime, created a slushy mess overnight along several streets. Hail has been known for creating dangerous road conditions. October is typically a month when severe weather is common, but forecasters said hail storms just three weeks apart is UNUSUAL.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006 -

QUAKES -
DID YOU KNOW? There are 293 ways to make change for a dollar.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/9 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
6.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 16E was 1143 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm NORMAN was 587 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SOULIK was 430 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Norman is the 18th named storm of the 2006 Pacific hurricane season. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. Norman is located well to the southwest of Baja California, and is currently tracking north at 7 miles per hour. The storm is expected to slowly curve to the northeast as it slowly strengthens, then slowly weaken when it moves over colder waters. There is a chance that it could bring winds and rain to Baja California before it dissipates. (map)

RUSSIA - The cyclone in South Kurils killed a motorboat captain. The motorboat, which has a crew of four, was anchored near the village of Golovnino on the Kunashir Island. The strong wing and high waves tore off the anchor and carried the boat away to the sea. The crew failed to start the engine and sent a May Day signal. The Mechta boat was sent to rescue the RSH-2477 motorboat, but it failed to come close enough. The motorboat crewmembers jumped overboard and were picked up by the Mechta. The captain died during the rescue operation, presumably of a heart attack. The Mechta is unable to reach the shore because of eight-meter-high waves. It is drifting in the Izmeny Bay. Another motorboat, RSH-2251, was carried away from Golovnino on Sunday. The motorboat was under repairs and had no people onboard. Both motorboats are drifting towards Japan. Tokyo has been warned about the navigation peril between the South Kuril Island of Kunashir and the Japanese Island of Hokkaido. The cyclone came to the South Kurils from Japan, where a series of shipwrecks happened, killing four people and causing the disappearance of another 29. The cyclone is moving along the Kuril islands to the north, and will reach the Island of Paramushir in about one day.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Floods in Thailand have killed 32 people and sickened 138,000 others, many suffering from waterborne bacteria or parasites from wading through waist-deep water. Flooding has hit 43 of Thailand's 76 provinces since August, the height of the rainy season. Of the flood-hit provinces, 22 remain inundated by heavy rains related to Typhoon Xangsane.

GREECE - Torrential rains over the weekend flooded vast areas of northern Greece, causing much damage and widespread power outages. The worst-affected areas included the villages of Melissourgos, Stavro, and Olympiada, as well as locations along the Thessaloniki-Kavala stretch of the national highway.

CHINA - Four more bodies were recovered early Monday in a landslide in northwest China, bringing the death toll to 11, with one person still missing. The landslide occurred at 9:30 a.m. Friday at Gaolou Village in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province, when more than 50,000 cubic meters of mud and rock destroyed 94 houses, burying 13 villagers. Villagers nearby have been evacuated to safety. It rained heavily for ten days in the hilly area a week before the landslide.

MALAYSIA - Heavy rains triggered a landslide at the back of a row of low-cost flats in Section 10, Wangsa Maju, forcing about 600 residents to flee their homes.

Monday, October 9, 2006 -

LEARNED THE HARD WAY - When weeding, the quickest way to make sure you are removing a weed and not a valuable plant is to pull on it. If it comes out of the ground easily, it is a valuable plant.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/8 -
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.8 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 WINDWARD ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 15E was 630 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 21W was 650 nmi E of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

RUSSIA - A powerful cyclone hit the Southern Kuriles on Sunday. The wind has reached 130 kilometers per hour in Yuzhno-Kurilsk, on the Kunashir Island. Large storm waves of six meters beat the water areas in the Pacific Ocean and the Okhotsk Sea close to the Kurile range. Fishing vessels are hiding in sheltered bays. Weather experts say the cyclone will continue to reign on the islands on Sunday and Monday and then will decrease, going to the Pacific Ocean. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
FLORIDA - Extremely strong winds, pelting rain and a tornado blew through Central Florida Saturday night. More than 75 people in Apopka are homeless due to a roof collapse and are getting help from the Red Cross. The severe storm was UNUSUAL for autumn. It was caused by a cold front from the north colliding with warm air with the south over Central Florida.

UTAH - RECORD RAIN - Some parts of Utah received more rain on Friday than they do normally in six to 12 months.

Sunday, October 8, 2006 -

All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/7 -
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 OFF COAST OF SOUTHERN CHILE
5.8 NORTHERN CHILE
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
10/6 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA, REG
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 ARABIAN SEA
5.7 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
Mt Tavurvur - the erupting volcano on the Papua New Guinea island of New Britain is forcing people to evacuate their homes, as large volumes of ash fall on the town of Rabaul. There are reports of doors slamming, windows rattling and ash falling as far away as Kokopo across the harbour from Rabaul. "People are spontaneously evacuating from areas of heavy ash fall and those exposed to the worst of the air blasts. These are quite alarming." The ash column was around 5000m high with thunder and lightning within it. In 1994, large eruptions of Tavurvur and nearby Vulcan destroyed much of Rabaul. "We do not anticipate it will turn into a major eruption like 1994."
Favourable winds have saved the tiny town of Rabaul on Papua New Guinea's New Britain island from the effects of a devastating volcanic eruption, keeping the bulk of the ash away. Mount Tavurvur erupted yesterday with a blast that shattered windows up to 12 kilometres away. If it was not for the favourable winds, the damage could have been far worse than the 1994 eruption that destroyed much of Rabaul and forced the construction of a new capital, Kokopo, 20 kilometres away. Many locals feared the eruptions would cause a tidal wave. "There was a lot of panic, a lot of local people ran into the hills thinking the sea would be rising and there would be tidal waves and that the other volcano which blew in '94 was going to go as well." (photo)

NEW ZEALAND - Scientists say an eruption of Mount Ruapehu last week sent 6m-high waves across the crater lake. A team of scientists made it to the top of Mount Ruapehu on Saturday, and confirmed the mountain definitely did erupt. The scientists say the blast caused waves 6m high to lash the side of the crater lake and raised the temperature of the water by at least seven degrees. They say the eruption was contained within the lake. Although seismic activity at Ruapehu is now at normal levels, crevasses are opening up in the basin, and avalanche conditions may develop as the spring sun softens the new snow.

ALASKA - Fourpeaked volcano is rumbling again. The Alaska Volcano Observatory says a seismometer indicates activity has been ongoing all week. Clouds are impeding closer observations. The volcano has been spewing high quantities of sulfur dioxide. Fourpeaked volcano is not known to have erupted historically and the age of the last eruption is not known. Geological investigations have been limited and ice covers much of the area. However, the composition of the volcano indicates that eruptions of Fourpeaked can be explosive, possibly producing plumes that reach in excess of 33,000 ft. above sea level and local ashfall.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
None.

JAPAN - One Indian sailor is dead and 25 people are missing off Japan's Pacific coast after two ships ran aground in high winds and heavy seas. Heavy rains and high winds touched off by a low-pressure system lashed eastern Japan on Friday and early Saturday, producing high waves and heavy seas.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CHINA - A landslide trapped 12 villagers and destroyed almost 100 homes in a rural community in northwest China.

VIRGINIA - Up to 9 inches of rain soaked parts of Virginia, forcing the evacuation Saturday of a six-block section of Richmond and causing scattered flooding in the southeastern part of the state. The bodies of two fishermen who went out at the height of the storm were recovered. The two were caught in seas of up to 5 feet and winds gusting to 50 mph when they attempted to pull gill nets. Some of the heaviest tidal flooding since Hurricane Isabel blew through the area, is creating dangerous conditions on many highways and streets throughout Hampton Roads. Smithfield and Isle of Wight County were especially hard hit as a persistant Nor'easter continued pushing water into the bays and rivers. In Norfolk and Porrtsmouth, areas which normally are affected by tidal flooding, were especially hard hit, with many major thoroughfares completely obstructed by high water.

Friday, October 6, 2006 -

Whenever I feel blue, I start breathing again.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/5 -
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression BEBINCA was 413 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression RUMBIA was 760 nmi NNE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Flood barriers in Muang district were unable to stop the Chao Phya River from bursting its banks yesterday, leaving 350 residences under 2.5 metres of water in less than an hour. The Chao Phya River destroyed a one-kilometre stretch of flood barriers made of sandbags in Phrom Buri district and submerged 500 homes in Pak Bang market area under 1.5-metres of water in less than two hours. From September 5 to October 4, nine districts were flooded, affecting 33,291 people. The province also had a high suicide attempt rate of 467 cases this year - with 42 succeeding. The worst hit area, Bang Rakham, had 107 villages submerged for 30 days and 29,516 residents affected. Many locals were highly stressed due to crop damage from flooding. Meanwhile, the permanent secretary for Public Health ordered health officials to be alert to water-borne diseases including leptospirosis, cholera, diarrhoea, conjunctivitis, measles, dysentery, typhoid, hepatitis and athlete's foot, the latter being responsible for 45 per cent of the 106,218 flood-affected patients. Since September 29 over 5,268 patients had fallen ill from flood-borne diseases - with 2,600 cases on Wednesday alone.

NEW ZEALAND - An intense FREAK thunderstorm, which dumped 65mm in 90 minutes on the Mauriceville area north of Masterton on Tuesday night, had farmers, council workers and rail engineers reeling at the intensity of the rain and resulting damage. Streams transformed into torrents so strong a skinned sheep was discovered impaled on a fence, the railway line was left hanging in mid air when base metal was sluiced away and in other parts submerged under silt, and hillsides were stripped bare of pasture and crops. The railway was undermined after a tiny stream was transformed into a raging torrent, and rushed across the Mauriceville Road just north of the township. It flattened fences, drowned sheep and sluiced out the metal under the railway line, depositing it across paddocks. The torrent also smashed the huge culvert it's supposed to pass through. The thunderstorm, which hit northern Wairarapa, is part of a low-pressure system stormy pattern that had been predicted to hit the North Island early in October. The thunderstorms hit parts of Auckland on Sunday and have continued through the week in several areas, but especially on the east coast. There's more rain to come too, because of a low pressure system in the Tasman Sea which will be crossing the North Island bringing with it several rain bands.

EL NINO -
NASA satellite data indicates El Nino has returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean, although in a relatively weak condition that may not persist. NASA scientists say oceanographic data suggest this year's El Nino is much less intense than the last major El Nino episode that occurred in 1997-1998. During the past several weeks, satellites have observed a general warming of ocean temperatures and a rise in sea surface heights in the central and eastern Pacific along the equator - both indicators of El Nino development. "The present conditions indicate the intensity of this El Nino is too weak to have a major influence on current weather patterns."

Thursday, October 5, 2006 -

Is it hard to spot a leopard in the wild?
No, they come that way.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/4 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA
5.7 TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA
5.0 EASTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

NEW ZEALAND - A cluster of earthquakes 30km northwest of Mt Cook this week has seismologists looking at what may be causing the activity. The biggest quake was on Monday, reaching 4.7 on the Richter scale, with successive earthquakes being smaller but closer to the surface. The government's scientific institute says they are not concerned about the quakes, but will be looking at data because it is UNUSUAL to have so much seismic activity around Mt Cook.

MAINE - Monday's earthquake lowered the water level by 3 1/2 feet at one location in a national park, an UNUSUAL event, but one that wasn't expected to hurt the water supply, officials said. By Wednesday, the water level was still falling but beginning to level off. The earthquake Monday evening registered a magnitude of 3.9 and followed quakes with magnitudes of 3.5 and 2.5 on Sept. 22 and 26. The latest earthquake caused rocks to fall onto Acadia National Park's Park Loop Road and burst some water pipes, but no injuries were reported. The Geological Survey said the drop in water level was more of an oddity than something for residents to worry about. "We're not trying to create some kind of public scare. It's more of a public interest thing. It's a pretty dramatic change." What struck the scientists is the fact that there's little reference in scientific literature to drops in water levels after earthquakes. The Mount Desert region's fractured bedrock makes it difficult to predict whether or not other wells will be affected.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - The Indonesian government has given its backing to a plan to dump millions of tons of untreated muddy water into the Porong river, near Surabaya city. Muddy water is already being pumped, and a pipeline is being built to take it directly to the coast. The environment ministry admits the plan will destroy marine life in the area. Environmental groups say it could take 30 years to repair the damage. The plan is a last ditch attempt to stave off disaster, four months after mud started spurting out of a crack in the earth. The mud spill has flooded more than 400 hectares (990 acres) of land. It has also forced more than 10,000 people from their homes, and submerged several villages. As the clock ticks down to the start of the rainy season, measures to contain the mud are getting ever more desperate. A series of dams built to limit the spread of the sludge has burst several times, flooding eight villages and closing the main highway into the city. With the crack in the earth now pumping out nearly 130,000 cubic metres of mud a day, the government says it has no option but to channel the sludge into the sea.

A small earthquake inside the Mount Ruapehu volcano in New Zealand triggered a landslide alert, though no slide or flood of water from the crater lake occurred. A lahar is expected to occur when a natural dam of volcanic ash around the lake collapses, releasing hundreds of millions of liters (gallons) of water and mud trapped inside. Scientists said they were trying to determine whether the lahar alert was set off by a small eruption generating a wave that rippled across the lake after the quake. A huge mud and water flow from the central North Island volcano's crater lake killed 151 people in 1953. "What triggered this off last night was a small volcanic earthquake of magnitude 3 ... the size that generates an eruption at Ruapehu. So we may or may not have had a small eruption that's thrown out a bit of lake water, that triggered off the system." During the 1996 eruption millions of tones (tons) of ash were tossed over nearby farmland and rocks the size of large cars blasted out of the crater. No major mud flow had occurred at that time. The government two years ago decided not to try to prevent a massive water and mud slide that is expected to burst out of the crater lake by late 2007 — instead focusing on ways to warn residents once a lahar, or mud flow, is under way.

MT. ETNA has resumed its volcanic activity with lava flows from the south-east crater. The lava is clearly visible from the summit of the volcano, and has reached Valle del Bove, a deserted zone far from any towns, where there is no danger to any people. Over the past few hours, the instruments of the National Institute of Geology and Volcanic Studies have revealed an increase in volcanic tremors. Since September Mt Etna has been experiencing intermittent volcanic activity, and this is the fourth time since then that a lava flow has been produced. Mt Etna Webcam.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 324 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical depression RUMBIA was 575 nmi NE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

VIETNAM - A 13-month-old boy in Vietnam survived devastating Typhoon Xangsane after flying away in his cradle over a two-story building. The boy was sleeping in a cradle hanging from a roof beam when he was taken away as the powerful typhoon hit Danang city on Sunday morning. "His father saw the cradle flying away, above a two-story school building nearby." The flying baby boy was found stuck in waterplants in a pond, 150 metres from his home. He suffered from very small head injuries. The family is now staying in the hospital as the house was completely destroyed.

Tropical storm Neneng (international codename: Bebinca) has changed course, heading toward southern Japan and away from the rain-soaked northern Philippines, which was still reeling from last week's typhoon, forecasters said Wednesday. It could intensify into a typhoon as it heads toward southern Japan over the next few days. Neneng has interacted with a low pressure area east of Luzon, bringing rains and flash floods. Flash floods stranded hundreds of commuters in Mindoro Occidental province, 200 kilometers south of Manila, and sank several houses. On Tuesday, six people were killed in flash floods east of Manila.

Wednesday, October 4, 2006 -

Why did the baby cookie cry?
Because its mother was a wafer so long.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/3 -
6.2 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 TONGA ISLANDS REGION

MAINE - Acadia National Park rangers were scouring Mount Desert Island on Tuesday, checking for any safety problems following the area’s third earthquake in 11 days. Rangers removed rocks from the Park Loop Road, on the eastern side of Champlain Mountain. Many of the rocks were small, but a few were the size of small cars. The quake struck at 8:07 p.m. Monday and was centered on the eastern side of Mount Desert Island near the village of Otter Creek. The quake was first reported as being magnitude 3.4, but by Tuesday morning it had been revised to magnitude 3.9. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 529 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

China said Tuesday that Typhoon Bebinca, the 17th tropical storm of the year, was building up near the Philippines and could affect its eastern shores. Chinese forecasters said Bebinca was moving north at about 9 miles per hour. Warnings were issued to fishing boats to steer away from the storm's path. The forecast said strong winds or gales were expected to hit the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea from late Tuesday to tonight.

VIETNAM - Massive damage to infrastructure at industrial parks in Vietnam’s central region which was hit by Typhoon Xangsane last weekend has brought business there to a standstill. At least 600 factories and warehouses have either collapsed or lost their roofs. Tens of thousands of workers are likely to be unemployed for at least a month as the supplies of water and electricity to the parks have been interrupted after pipelines and almost all electricity poles in Danang city were uprooted. Despite two days of cleaning up, the scenes of devastation remain awesome with trees, construction materials, irons bars, and roofs scattered around. Over 220,000 houses in Danang city and Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Hue, and Binh Dinh provinces were inundated, destroyed, or unroofed, and 370 fishing boats destroyed. 45 people were killed or are missing. Estimated total damages are 10 trillion dong ($627 million) (photo).

PHILIPPINES - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane in the Philippines has neared 200, as rescue workers reached remote areas where last week's massive storm sparked flash floods and landslides. The storm wrecked 146,000 houses and tens of thousands of hectares of farmland. Some 171,000 people displaced by floods and strong winds remained in evacuation centres. Scattered flooding was reported around Manila overnight as another tropical storm approached from the Pacific coast. The new storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometres per hour, was expected to brush past the northeast coast of Luzon late Friday or early Saturday.

Tuesday, October 3, 2006 -

DID YOU KNOW? The "sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep's sick" is believed to be the toughest tongue twister in the English language.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/2 -
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BEBINCA was 484 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm ISAAC was 368 nmi E of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

PHILIPPINES - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane in the Philippines has more than doubled to at least 161, with at least 72 others still reported missing. The seventy-two people are missing from a landslide in the town of San Francisco in Laguna province. The typhoon, the strongest to hit the Philippines capital in a decade, displaced 1.33 million people and blacked out the country's main island of Luzon, leaving some 43 million people in the dark. The storm wrecked 146,000 houses and tens of thousands of hectares of farmland. Scattered flooding was reported around Manila overnight as another tropical storm approached from the Pacific coast, but there were no additional casualties reported.

VIETNAM - The death toll from Typhoon Xangsane rose to 41 and tens of thousands of people have been displaced.

CHINA - At least one person died and 12 were injured after Typhoon Xangsane battered southern China's island province of Hainan over the weekend.

THAILAND - The Meteorological Station in Trat Province has warned people of flash flood influenced from Typhoon Xangsane. The province has been warned that it will experience an 80 percent increase of rain due to the influences of Typhoon Xangsane. People who are residing in risky areas must be aware of the hazards over the next three to four days. The waves in the Andaman Sea are around two to four meters high, and small boats are advised to stay ashore.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ANTARCTICA - A bad storm in Alaska last October generated an ocean swell that broke apart a giant iceberg near Antarctica six days later, US researchers have reported. The waves travelled 13,500km to destroy the iceberg. The seismometer record showed that although it was mild and clear, the iceberg had been moving up and down and from side to side. The waves in Alaska were about 10m high and then two days later they were down to 4.5m they passed Hawaii on their way south. "We think that B15A was in the right position where these waves would be fatal to it. The iceberg shattered like a gracile wine glass being sung to by a heavy soprano." The question we then pose is: "Could global storminess have an influence on the Antarctic ice sheet that had never been thought of?"

NEW ZEALAND - There is more surface flooding in Auckland as bursts of heavy rain continue to hit the region. More heavy rain and thunderstorms are being forecast for parts of the upper North Island. Some areas of Auckland have recorded up to 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours, as well as being buffeted by high winds.

Monday, October 2, 2006 -

LEARNED THE HARD WAY - Never hold a Dust-Buster and a cat at the same time.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/1 -
5.0 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.2 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
6.6 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 TAIWAN
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - Scientists are predicting Wanganui will eventually become a volcano. There is already a huge amount of seismic activity beneath the city. A line can be drawn straight from the volcanoes of the Kermadec arc, through White Island, Ruapehu and Wanganui. However there is no need to flee Wanganui in terror just yet. The volcano is not expected to emerge for thousands of years.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 19W was 477 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 55 nmi WSW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Hurricane ISAAC was 235 nmi NE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

PHILIPPINES - A new storm (19W) entered the Philippine area of responsibility last night even as much of Metro Manila and Southern Luzon remained without power and water in typhoon Milenyo’s wake (Xangsane).

Tropical storm Xangsane batters Vietnam - Xangsane barreled across central Vietnam on Sunday, leaving at least six people dead, hundreds injured and tens of thousands of homes damaged. Heavy rains are expected to continue for several days and could unleash floods and landslides across the region.

CANADA - A tropical storm watch was in effect for eastern parts of the Canadian province of Newfoundland as Hurricane Isaac churned through the north Atlantic.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
NIGERIA - Hundreds of people in northern Nigeria have been made homeless after a dam burst in Zamfara state. Torrential rain had brought the water level behind the dam to critical level, forcing it to burst. A wall of water swept through villages below the dam, close to the state capital Gusau. "The body of water was just like the pictures of tsunami that we've seen. It had enough force and speed to sweep people off their feet and into the river." Despite the force of the water, "all those missing were later found safe and alive."

NEW ZEALAND - a major storm hit Auckland. There were reports of roofs lifting, houses flooding, powerlines arcing and trees coming down following an electrical storm across West Auckland and a mini tornado in Ranui. Landslips were reported in Swanson and Scenic Drive.

Sunday, October 1, 2006 -

When asked what he would do if he knew the world would end tomorrow, Martin Luther said he would plant a tree today.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/30 -
5.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
6.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 SEA OF OKHOTSK
5.6 SOUTHERN PERU
5.6 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
9/29 -
5.5 TRINIDAD
6.1 TRINIDAD
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

TRINIDAD - The strong 6.1 earthquake rocked Venezuela and Trinidad on Friday, knocking out power across much of the Caribbean island and sending thousands of people into the streets. One person is dead, three injured, several buildings structurally damaged and water and power disrupted in Trinidad and Tobago. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management reported "serious structural damage" to at least seven schools as well as minor damage to a highway overpass. In the capital, Port-of-Spain, which shook for about 15 to 20 seconds, thousands of screaming people poured out of offices and other buildings, construction workers scampered down scaffolding, and traffic came to a standstill. Hours after the quake, a 5.4 magnitude aftershock rattled Venezuela and Trinidad, sending residents back into the streets. The quake was also felt in parts of Guyana.

MAINE - Nearly a week after many local residents were awakened by a RARE earthquake on the eastern side of Mount Desert Island, they experienced two relatively powerful aftershocks Thursday morning. "It sounded like loud thunder." The registered magnitudes for Thursday’s aftershocks were 1.8 and 2.5. Having six confirmed foreshocks and aftershocks stemming from the 3.4-magnitude earthquake on Sept. 22 is RARE. The 15 other unconfirmed related tremors that have been reported over the past week and the magnitude of Thursday’s larger aftershock also is UNCOMMON. "The number of events is UNUSUAL. That’s pretty big for an aftershock a week later." Thirty-five earthquakes have been reported in Maine since 1997.

CALIFORNIA - Tuesday's 3.7 earthquake broke a main water transmission line in Brooktrails. The 12-inch pipe carrying water from the Lake Emily reservoir to the Lake Ada Rose reservoir on the way to the treatment plant, cracked when the earth shifted.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane ISAAC was 210 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 22 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Typhoon Xangsane, beginning its strike on Vietnam's central region early this morning, has killed two people and injured 70. The people, all from Da Nang city, the first locality in Vietnam being hit by the typhoon, were killed or injured after their houses collapsed due to strong winds and heavy rain. The typhoon, the 6th one striking Vietnam this year, damaged thousands of houses and schools, dozens of ships and boats, and disrupted electricity and telecommunication networks in some areas in the central coastal cities and provinces. Hundreds of people in the central region had been isolated since water levels around the areas they were in are rising. Water levels in many rivers are about three meters higher than the normal level.

Typhoon Xangsane's death toll climbed to 94 people in the Philippines as fierce winds and rains ran havoc across the northern and central areas. Most of the dead were drowned, buried by landslides, hit by fallen trees or electrocuted. Most of the additional fatalities were recovered in Cavite province, just outside the capital, where a mini-dam collapsed due to heavy rains and winds. Typhoon Xangsane is now on its way to Vietnam where thousands are evacuated and flights cancelled. Vietnamese TV showed footage of people building barricades with sandbags and digging tunnels to hide from the storm. "The typhoon is extremely powerful and is expected to affect a large area."
PHILIPPINES - A landslide on the slopes of Mount Makiling in Laguna killed 14 people on Friday. Earlier at least 18 people were reported killed in a flashflood that hit coastal towns in Quezon province.
TYPHOON “Milenyo” (international codename: Xangsane) has left not just a trail of destruction in Metro Manila, but also a number of questions for the country's meteorologists. Milenyo's intensity and direction were ABNORMAL for a tropical cyclone that had already hit a land mass before arriving in Metro Manila. "We are now studying what happened to Milenyo. It should have weakened when it hit land mass because it gets its strength from water. The land mass should have made an impact." PAGASA, which can predict a cyclone's position up to five days ahead, noted the abnormal behavior of Milenyo as early as Monday when it was still a tropical depression off Samar. Based on numerical models, Milenyo should have moved north towards the Bicol region before hitting Cagayan Valley on its way out. The Department of Science and Technology and PAGASAS are now studying interesting events that occurred in 2006, which they dubbed as "a YEAR OF SO MANY WEATHER ABNORMALITIES." Barely four months after coming out of La Niña, the Philippines is facing a developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific region. The arrival of the southwest monsoon has also been delayed and winds were pushed to Visayas and Mindanao instead of Luzon, which the monsoon normally affects.
Another tropical depression, Neneng, was spotted 2,000 kilometers east of the Visayas. It is expected to enter the PAR (Philippine area of responsibility ) today.

Friday, September 29, 2006 -

GETTING OLD - I was put on earth to accomplish a certain number of things, but I'm so far behind I might have to live forever.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/28 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.9 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

The strong 6.9 earthquake under the ocean floor near the Samoan Islands in the South Pacific early Thursday triggered a small tsunami that authorities said could have caused major damage had it been nearer to land.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - In Java, experts have warned about the possible risk of volcanic eruption similar to that in Pompei - for four months, millions of cubic metres of boiling mud have been flowing around the whereabouts of Porong; entire villages have already been submerged and 10,000 people displaced. Efforts to block the mudflow went on until academics concluded there was no way to stop it and that the only option was to contain the flow and channel it towards the sea, seeking to limit damage done. Meanwhile, tension is rising among local residents: for months, they have watched their homes, work and fields being submerged, and now they are protesting the absence of proper intervention. Road blocks on the route from Malang to Surabaya have become the order of the day, with queues of cars of around 4 to 5 km long. Thousands of people have erected tents near the edge of the road, seeking shelter to escape the mud. Citing scientific studies, an expert said a mud volcano had been lying dormant under Porong for 4.9 million of year. In December this could erupt, with mud sweeping across kilometers of land, as Mt Vesuvius did in Pompei: “The potential disaster is near. The hot mud quantity is beyond our imagination... my opinion as a geologist is that we have no choice other than to send this mud to rivers and the sea. We are now reaching the last days of September and soon the rainy season will start,” which could swell the volume of mud and encourage eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 05B was 260 nmi SW of Calcutta, India.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 198 nmi W of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm ISAAC was 484 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.

PHILIPPINES - At least 16 people are now known to have died in the latest typhoon to hit the Philippines. 12 people are missing. Typhoon Xangsane, which packed winds of up to 130 km/h (80 mph), hit the northern island of Luzon before moving on to the capital Manila. It was THE STRONGEST TYPHOON TO HIT METRO MANILA DIRECTLY IN 11 YEARS.
VIETNAM - The typhoon is forecast by a Hawaiian hydrometeorology agency to arrive in central Vietnam on October 2.
THAILAND - The Royal Irrigation Department chief has ordered officials to keep draining water from submerged parts of eastern Bangkok into the Bang Pakong River and the Gulf of Thailand. The capital will also have to brace itself for Typhoon Xangsane - now battering the Philippines and moving towards the South China Sea - which will affect Thailand's weather on Sunday.

Tropical storm 05B - is forecast to strike India at about 00:00 GMT today.

Tropical storm Isaac formed in the central Atlantic on Thursday and its outer reaches could be lashing Canada's East Coast within days — although it's not expected to become a hurricane or directly threaten land.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
AZERBAIJAN - Heavy rain kills two in Azerbaijani region.

SOUTH AFRICA - At least six die in RECORD TORRENTS OF RAIN in Transkei. Port Edward had 133,2mm of rain on Tuesday, a new record after the previous high of 83.2mm recorded on September 22, 1993. Mthatha‘s 63,7mm was also a new record after the 57,3mm recorded on September 26, 1987.

Heavy rain causes chaos in South Trinidad & Tobago - Rivers overflowed their banks and caused massive flooding throughout low lying areas in South Trinidad yesterday following three hours of heavy rain.

UNITED KINGDOM - Yarmouth has seen four FREAK storms in a month. Roads were turned into rivers and homes were awash after a month's rainfall fell in just a few hours on Monday morning. The town's infrastructure was pushed to the very limit by the “one in 100 year downpour” - roads were closed, businesses were forced to shut, schools were closed, and traffic came to a virtual standstill.

NEW YORK - A waterspout was spotted in Long Island Sound off Bridgeport Wednesday afternoon, prompting a mariners' warning from the National Weather Service. It was certainly a RARE site out on Long Island Sound. A "Fair Weather Waterspout" touched down north of Port Jefferson. The spout lasted close to a half hour with varying intensities. Not only is the "occurrence" rare for the area, but it also lasted much longer than the typical fair weather spout.

Thursday, September 28, 2006 -

What did the bug say when it hit the windshield?
I don't think I have the guts to do that again.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/27 -
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION
5.1 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Just beyond the site where volcano Mt. Augustine finally quieted after several months of eruption, a new boil of the Earth’s surface is expelling plumes of ash, gas and steam from beneath its layer of glacier skin. That mask, scientists say, is the reason there are many unknowns regarding this volcano’s activity — which makes it difficult to predict what may happen next. Fourpeaked has been active since last Sunday after a likely hibernation of at least 10,000 years. The initial plume Sunday reached 20,000 feet into the sky.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 09 was 605 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression 03C was 777 nmi ENE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 42 nmi SE of Manila, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - TYPHOON Xangsane wrought destruction across the Philippines today causing widespread flooding, closing schools and financial markets, disrupting transport and leaving at least two people dead. Torrential rain caused major flooding throughout central and northern parts of the country as high winds uprooted trees and damaged buildings. In Manila flash floods turned streets into rivers and inundated homes in low-lying areas as storm drains overflowed. The coast guard, civil defense and local authorities have warned communities to be on alert for possible landslides and flash floods. The coastal province of Albay, about 320 kilometers (200 miles) southeast of Manila, felt the brunt of the typhoon. A regional highway was impassable because of uprooted trees, power cuts were reported in six provinces and a landslide cut off the road between Antique and Iloilo provinces on central Panay island. Half of the villages in one town in Antique province were under 1.5 meters (five feet) of water after the Dalanas River overflowed.
PHILIPPINES - Typhoon “Milenyo” (international codename: Xangsane) bore down on the Philippine island of Samar on Wednesday, leaving thousands of ferry passengers stranded as services were suspended. The tropical storm approaching the eastern Philippines intensified into a typhoon Wednesday as it pounded the coast with high winds and heavy rains. In the province of Antique, heavy rains caused the Dalanas River to overflow, flooding half of the coastal town of Barbaza, including Camansihan Island.

VIETNAM - A tropical storm hitting Vietnam's central region since last weekend has claimed three lives. Two students were drowned due to strong flooding, and a resident of Quang Nam province died on the spot when an electric pole fell onto the person. Rainwater is inundating many houses, gardens, crops and road sections. By Monday afternoon, local army forces mobilized nearly 4,000 officers and soldiers, and 229 ships and automobiles to fight against the storm, the fifth striking Vietnam so far this year.

LANDSLIDES -
INDONESIA'S president has declared a landslide disaster zone over part of East Java swamped by a mudspill, and ordered that four affected villages be abandoned. “Around 400 hectares of the affected area flooded with mud is now declared a “disaster area' and not fit for habitation. Almost 3000 households from four villages will be resettled." For four months, steaming mud has been spewing from the earth near an exploratory gas well. Experts have warned they cannot predict when the outpouring might end.
PENNSYLVANIA - Private train rerouted due to massive landslide - A major landslide covered two of the three Norfolk Southern railway tracks in Kilbuck Township.
NEW YORK - A boat advisory remains in effect after landslide - Boaters are still required to avoid a section of the Hudson River effected by a landslide, which occurred more than a week ago.
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Landslide severs Highlands Highway - the dilapidated Mendi to Tari section of the Highlands Highway has been further affected by a landslide.

HEAVY RAIN -
SOUTH AFRICA - N2 caves in after 188mm of rain - Heavy rain is also wreaking havoc in parts of the Eastern Cape, causing accidents, washing away roads and threatening the homes of shack dwellers.

NEPAL - Heavy rain cripples life in eastern Nepal - Incessant rainfall for the last four days has crippled life in the eastern districts, with air service and shuttle service along the highways also being affected. Transportation to and from Biratnagar Sub-metropolis has been disrupted while the ground floor of many houses in the city were flooded due to lack of proper sewage system. Huge swathes of arable land along with settlements in Bahedabela, Musaraniya, Depura, Rupaitha and other VDCs in the district have been inundated. In Udayapur, transportation service to and from the district headquarters Gaighat came to a complete halt due to flooding of Triyuga river. Similarly, landslides triggered by continuous rainfall at many places along the Mechi and Koshi Highways have further disrupted traffic movement. Rainfall throughout the country that has outlived the usual monsoon end date of September 23, was set to end for this year on Wednesday, according to the Meteorological Forecasting Division. The incessant downpour in the country was caused by an abnormal weather system in Jharkhand and Bihar. However, the system is moving towards northeast and monsoon should end in the country.

INDIA - Heavy rainfall lashed most parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep, even as the South West monsoon continued to be vigorous in the region.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006 -

What does a grape say when it gets stepped on?
Nothing, it just lets out a little whine.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/26 -
5.0 NEPAL-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

MAINE - On Friday monitors recorded five hours of earthquake activity with the biggest being a Magnitude 3.5 quake at 6:39 a.m. about one mile southwest of the middle of Bar Harbor. There were roughly nine additional temblors starting at 5:21 a.m. before the main quake and continuing through 10:20 a.m. The biggest quake was of a magnitude that could be felt miles away. There were no reports of injuries or property damage. New England averages about one or two earthquakes that are above 3.5 Magnitude each year. Maine already recorded a 3.8-Magnitude earthquake in the northern part of the state on July 14.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon rumbles back to life again. Mayon volcano activities significantly increased yesterday. During the past 24-hours, Mayon Volcano's seismic network recorded seven (7) volcanic earthquakes and eighteen (18) tremor episodes. Intermittent discharge of incandescent lava fragments and intense glow from the crater were still observed from the summit. Steaming from the crater was moderate with white plumes drifting southwest. Mayon Volcano remains at a high level of unrest with fair probability for explosive eruptions.

ALASKA - Fourpeaked Mountain, a volcano that has been quiet for thousands of years, appears to be coming back to life. Fourpeaked Volcano, about 80 miles northwest of Kodiak across Shelikof Strait, was upgraded by the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage to code yellow, meaning restless with an eruption possible. “An atmospheric disturbance was recorded in Fairbanks. It is clear the sound waves were coming from Fourpeaked.” In addition, a cloud of sulfur dioxide gas was detected during the eruption. The last volcanic activity at Fourpeaked was more than 10,000 years ago and no recent volcanic or hydrothermal activity had been identified. Earthquake activity has now been detected below Fourpeaked. An earthquake located on Afognak Island 75 miles southeast of Fourpeaked, with a magnitude of 3.6, was reported Tuesday. The area is in the Cape Douglas area on Fourpeaked Glacier, south of St. Augustine Volcano, which is now designated as code green, or normal seismic activity, and could be emitting some ash that was reported earlier in the week.

INDONESIA - European geologists said Monday it may be impossible to stop a massive surge of hot sludge on Indonesia's densely populated island of Java, saying it could be the birth of a new mud volcano. The mud, which is almost five metres deep in some places, has submerged houses in four villages since it started spewing from a hole four months ago, displacing more than 10,000 people. At least 20 factories and 270 hectares of land have been inundated or abandoned due to safety reasons. The mud has repeatedly washed onto a major toll road, closing it for weeks at a time, and now threatens a rail link in the industrial area just outside Surabaya, Indonesia's second-largest city.
Late on Monday the mudflow broke barriers and injured six. One had burns from waist to ankle. Several experts have said the mudflow, which started to spurt in late May, could have been triggered by a crack about 6,000 feet (1,800 metres) deep in East Java province's Banjar Panji well. However, a group of international scientists said this week the mudflow might be a natural phenomenon that could be impossible to stop. The mud has swamped four villages over an area larger than Monaco, displacing more than 10,000 people and highlighting the chequered environmental practices in exploiting resources in Indonesia. The Monday night barrier breaches had been predicted by hundreds of villagers living near the sand-and-gravel dykes who fled the area last week. But, several site workers who stayed in the abandoned houses failed to anticipate the flood. The ongoing crisis has forced the local government in East Java province to allow the channeling of the muddy water into a nearby river, despite concerns it could pollute the ocean, a source of income for millions living on Java's eastern coast. "We are racing against time. The rainy season is near and we must reduce the pressure against the dykes."

India's last active volcano in the Barren island of Andaman and Nicobar Islands is slowly calming down 16 months after its eruption. 'Barren' had erupted in May 2005 after the disastrous tsumani hit the island in December 2004. The volcano runs about 150 fathoms deep under the sea and usually gives off smoke.

New research puts 'killer La Palma tsunami' at distant future - The volcanic island of La Palma in the Canaries is much more stable than is generally assumed, Dutch scientists working at the TU Delft have found. The southwestern flank of the island isn’t likely to fall into the sea (potentially causing a tsunami) for at least another 10,000 years. Only under very extreme conditions, the flank could become unstable, they have calculated. This would require unusually heavy rainfall during an exceptionally strong magmatic outburst, or some other highly unlikely combination of circumstances. ‘Based on what we know now, so many things must go wrong that a disaster seems very, very unlikely’.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 03C was 867 nmi E of Kwajalein, Marshall Island.
Typhoon XANGSANE was 162 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006 -

DID YOU KNOW? In the course of an average lifetime, while sleeping, you might eat around 70 assorted insects and 10 spiders.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/25 -
5.6 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG
5.0 SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.6 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm XANGSANE was 256 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.

VIETNAM - Three people were reported killed in central Vietnam on Monday as a tropical storm lashed the coast. Military units were on alert and fishing boats had been called to shore ahead of the storm, which was the first tropical cyclone to directly hit Vietnam this year.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
AUSTRALIA - Thousands of dollars damage was caused when violent wind storms lashed the Lithgow district and Blue Mountains on Sunday. The gales were part of an extreme weather front that affected much of south eastern NSW, leaving a trail of destruction and bringing an ominously early start to the bushfire season. Wind gusts were reported by the Weather Bureau to have been up to 100 kph, bringing THE MOST EXTREME WIND EXPERIENCE IN RECENT YEARS. This prompted the Rural Fire Service to declare the region's first total fire ban for the year, a situation normally encountered in peak Summer rather than early Spring.

UNITED KINGDOM - Hundreds of people yesterday battled flash floods after drainage systems in two coastal towns were "overwhelmed" by torrential rain. More than 90 properties, including schools and businesses, in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk and Lowestoft, Suffolk were affected. Floods were said to be several feet deep in places in Great Yarmouth, which was the worst hit area, and police said a number of roads were blocked.

KENTUCKY - Heavy flooding rain, 8.95 inches of rain over 24 hours on Friday and Saturday, was probably a 200-year rain. Heavy rain last November was a 300-year rain. Both are RARE in themselves, but to get both in the span of one year, as well as other smaller rain events that have also caused flooding - that is something that stormwater systems are just not designed to handle. "They usually don't go to the extent of designing for anything more than a 50- to 100-year storm. It's just not economically possible to do that."

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
The Earth's rapid warming has pushed temperatures to their HOTTEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 12,000 YEARS and within a hair's breadth of a million years. "Further global warming of 1 degree Celsius defines a critical level. If warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be relatively manageable. During the warmest interglacial periods the Earth was reasonably similar to today. But if further global warming reaches 2 or 3 degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know." The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about three million years ago, when the sea level was estimated to have been about 25m higher than today.

CALIFORNIA is experiencing ONE OF ITS WORST WILDFIRE SEASONS IN A DECADE, and the most brutal part of the season - fall - has only just begun. Already, some 172,333 acres of land within CDF's jurisdiction have gone up in flame - more than triple the amount at this time last year. More than 386,768 acres in California's national forests have burned this year. "That's more than any other year in the past decade, with the exception of 1999, when 513,700 acres were lost in national forests - many of them in October. "The potential is there for more big fires in California this year."

SOUTH AUSTRALIA is coming out of THE DRIEST WINTER ON RECORD, leaving firefighters worried about the potential for wild scrub and forest blazes.

Monday, September 25, 2006 -

COMMON SENSE? - You can't trust dogs to watch your food.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/24 -
5.7 MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
5.5 SAN JUAN PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
5.3 CENTRAL PERU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 17W was 81 nmi NW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm HELENE was 497 nmi WNW of Lajes, Azores.
Cyclone MUKDA was 282 nmi S of Karachi, Pakistan.

INDIA - The threat of cyclonic storm Mukda over Saurashtra coast for last two days is over as it remained stationary and weakened into a deep depression according to the latest bulletin of the weather office. It will further weaken, the weather bureau said. All ports have been asked lower signals. However a heavy to very heavy rainfall warning has been issued, with strong winds reaching 50 to 70 Km/Hour likely along off Gujarat coast. The sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast.

BAGLADESH - Nearly 2,000 fishermen are still missing - Dozens of boats capsized in the storm and more than 500 fishing boats are still unaccounted for. Bangladesh's confirmed death toll from storms in the Bay of Bengal rose to 107 on Sunday as officials warned that thousands of fishermen remain missing and are feared drowned.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
LOUISIANA - Three tornadoes touched down across the Teche Area last Thursday, damaging several homes. Tornadic activity is UNUSUAL in this time of year. "Usually, you don't see tornadoes like this in September, unless there's a tropical storm or a hurricane coming. However, this entire month has been active. It's acting like a later season than it really is. We're experiencing a weather pattern like you usually see in November or December." Tornadoes are most common in fall or spring months.

SNOW / COLD -
Western Colorado was greeted by a wintry blast Friday that soaked Grand Junction in a steady rain, dumped several inches of snow in the mountains and knocked out power to areas south. It is UNUSUAL to have this much snow to begin the fall season. “What has been UNUSUAL is the frequency of storms like this. (This is the third storm in the last few days to hit the mountains.) They just keep zipping down from the Northwest.”

UTAH also got snow last week. While the storm producing the snow didn't take the forecasters by surprise, the general weather pattern for the past week has gotten their attention. "It is UNUSUAL. It is early." The Salt Lake City area tied record low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. "In Salt Lake City [this time of year] the normal high is 76 degrees and a low of 48. Sitting here now, we're at 41 degrees and forecasting a high of 52. That's almost 25 degrees below normal." It's a pattern seen around Utah.

Sunday, September 24, 2006 -

"To paraphrase Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung - what we cannot imagine, we are condemned to live out. The point of telling stories about the end of the world is that we are then less likely to let this terrible scenario unfold around us, just because we couldn't bear to think about it."

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/23 -
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN, REGION
5.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.0 FLORES, INDONESIA, REGION
9/22 -
5.5 SE.OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO ARGENTINA

TSUNAMI -
INDIA - The risk of a tsunami, generated by an earthquake in the Arabian Sea along the Makran fault, is being taken seriously by the National Institute of Disaster Management. With Mumbai and the entire Gujarat coast at risk from such a tsunami, efforts are on to have an early warning system in place as soon as possible. An earthquake on the faultline which is just south of Pakistan could generate a tsunami that would hit Karachi almost immediately. The Gujarat coast may get a 15 minute warning, while in Mumbai, residents would get a warning an hour in advance. But what complicates matters, especially for Mumbai, is that the land is flat and waves may go inland a long way. The option of escaping by running to high ground would not be available. The last tsunami generated by an earthquake was on November 28, 1945, just off Balochistan. That caused tsunami waves as high as 11m in the Kutch region and hit Mumbai as well, causing 4,000 deaths. Although the existence of the faultline was known, the realisation of what it can lead to has only hit now.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 17W was 34 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm HELENE was 497 nmi WNW of Lajes, Azores.
Typhoon YAGI was 371 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.

The tropical cyclone (17W) was located some 240 km south-west of Porbandar in the Arabian Sea on Saturday evening and appeared heading slowly north-east. The Pakistani towns of Badin and Thatta in southern Sindh province were put on high alert and officials warned people to move away from the coast to safer ground. In India residents had a long and anxious night as they waited for ‘Mukda’ to hit the coast. The ‘quasi-stationary’ tropical cyclone ‘Mukda’ is likely to hit Porbandar, Kutch, Jamnagar, Junagadh and Diu. Heavy to very heavy rain accompanied with strong winds reaching 80 to 100 kmph apart from tidal waves have been forecast. The number nine signal, indicating ‘great danger’, has been sounded for the ports located in Gulf of Kutch and others on the coastal areas. The most worried is the fishing community. “We had received warnings quite early on Friday. Yet, around 200 of our boats are still feared to be at sea."

Yagi strengthened briefly into a super typhoon overnight Thursday before weakening Friday but picking up forward speed as it tracked northwest toward the Tokyo area. But Yagi was forecast to curve sharply northeast and churn well east of Tokyo. Once past Yokosuka and the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, Yagi is forecast to track rapidly east-northeast before gradually dissipating in the north Pacific.
The typhoon, packing winds of 208 kph, pummeled a set of islands southeast of Honshu, damaging buildings, leaving around 1,000 households without electricity and forcing 150 people to flee their homes. Typhoon Yagi was traveling north at a speed of 30 kph about 440 km east of Hachijojima Island as of 9 p.m. Saturday, after bringing high waves and strong wind and rain to the area overnight. Yagi was the MOST POWERFUL TYPHOON TO HIT THE ISLES IN 20 YEARS.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
US - High winds, heavy rain and tornadoes pounded parts of the U.S. Midwest and South, leaving at least eight people dead, stranding people in cars, forcing others from their homes and leaving thousands without power.

BANGLADESH - A landslide triggered by days of heavy rain killed two children and injured six other members of their family in southern Bangladesh.

INDIA - With two days of incessant rain and more forecast for the next 48 hours Kolkata came to a complete halt on Friday. The city has so far recorded 218.44 mm rainfall. Three people died of electrocution in the southern fringes of the city and three of a family were killed in a wall collapse. Elsewhere in the state, 22 people died and nearly 70,000 houses were damaged.

PHILIPPINES - At least eight minibus passengers were killed and thirteen others were missing when their vehicle was hit by a landslide and fell into a ravine during heavy rains.

CYPRUS - A FREAK storm led to traffic hell on the Nicosia-Limassol highway when three trucks collided on the rain-slicked slippery roads. Miraculously no one was hurt in the incident but the ensuing chaos closed the arterial until roughly 3pm. The head of the Weather Services, could not say how much ain had fallen in the sudden downpour, which radio reports said was ‘torrential’. “Clouds have rolled in from the west, with unstable conditions prevailing until Monday.” When asked whether rain was normal for this time of year, he said it was difficult to say as, “general weather patterns have been somewhat UNUSUAL over the past two years”.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - A man died, homes were destroyed and residents evacuated as bushfires fuelled by strong winds and high temperatures broke out across NSW today. Recent warnings by authorities that the fire season would start early and be severe were vindicated when blazes fanned by hot winds up 100kph spread quickly.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. ONE ITEM -
POSTED HERE - NEW ZEALAND - A small piece of rock that has been found in a paddock in New Zealand may be a piece of the meteorite that streaked across the sky there Tuesday the 12th, panicking residents who flooded emergency hotlines. A farmer found a 10cm by 5cm piece of "almost weightless" rock in his field today near the town of Dunsandel, south of Christchurch. It has been sent to New Zealand's National Radiation Laboratory for analysis. The meteorite tore across the sky over the northern half of the South Island in the afternoon, leaving a bright, burning trial behind it and causing a sonic boom that rattled houses and shook the ground. It then apparently erupted into a fireball, sending forth a thick puff of smoke. People were sent running from the homes and offices when they heard the boom, fearing buildings could collapse. Thousands of people phoned emergency services. Some said they thought an aircraft may have exploded in mid-air, while others feared an earthquake had struck the island, reports from New Zealand said. The sonic boom was registered on earthquake-detecting equipment. The boom meant the meteorite was probably travelling "very low". It was probably about the size of a basketball as it shredded through the sky and became a "terminal fireball" at a speed of about 40,000kph. "If this had happened at night, it would have lit up the whole countryside." The local farmer who found the chunk of rock had never seen anything like it before. He said it was so light to hold it was almost weightless. Scientists had feared it may have a spent nuclear fuel rod from a satellite, but tests have shown it is not radioactive. An airline pilot who wanted to remain anonymous has told the New Zealand Press Association that he saw something like a meteor, "but different", flash in front of his plane as he flew over the south island at the time. He said the object appeared to be spinning, like debris from a shuttle. "First time I have ever seen anything like that during the day," he said.

Friday, September 21, 2006 -

What did the judge say when the skunk went into the court room?
Odor in the court.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/21 -
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.9 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.0 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION

GUAM - An earthquake that struck the island last month is to blame for many Guam Waterworks Authority problems, including several line breaks across the island, according to the water agency. Because of the earthquake, GWA has continued to repair water line breaks and is responding to a variety of leaks in many villages. The water agency anticipates more line breaks and leaks due to seismic activity and customers should be aware of the possibility of disrupted service.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HELENE was 449 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Cyclone MUKDA was 285 nmi S of Karachi, Pakistan.
Typhoon YAGI was 648 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon combined with another weather system before it neared Spain's northwest Galicia region and Portugal, forecasters said. The area reported winds as high as 70 mph (113 kph) Thursday morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane when it moved through the Azores Islands in the Atlantic. Authorities in the sparsely populated chain said they received no reports of major damage or injury. Hurricane Helene was downgraded to a Category 1 storm early Thursday as it remained over the open Atlantic well east of Bermuda. "Although Helene is expected to pass several hundred miles to the east of Bermuda, large ocean swells producing hazardous surf conditions could affect the area during the next couple of days."

Gordon was MOST UNUSUAL as it remained a category one storm while it headed into the Azores. Rarely does a hurricane stay a hurricane and cross that region of the far eastern Atlantic. Last year, Tropical Storm Vince was the first tropical cyclone in weather history to ever hit the Iberian Peninsula, which includes the nations of Spain and Portugal.

Pacific may be in for rough cyclone season - Cyclone season is approaching in the South Pacific and for many island nations it may be a rough one. "We are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific. We are seeing the development of a weak to moderate El Nino." Island nations to the east of the dateline, such as Fiji and Tonga, will be most heavily affected. It is unlikely any cyclones will reach New Zealand, although areas such as Gisborne and Northland may experience heavy rains and strong winds as a result of Pacific cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
IRELAND - Severe flooding occurred in parts of counties Monaghan and Cavan as a result of heavy rainfall yesterday evening. More serious flooding was reported in the Clones and Ballybay areas of Co Monaghan. Many areas of farmland were under water. Residents in Cork city are being advised to take precautions to protect their property against flooding following warnings of a high tide and storm conditions.

VIETNAM - Flash floods and whirlwinds have killed six people, injured six others and left several missing and almost 4,000 families homeless after raging over the country for 10 days since Sept. 9. Almost 4,000 homes were submerged and over 2,000 hectares of crops destroyed. Roads, bridges and irrigation works also suffered huge damages.

MINNESOTA - Tornado funnel near Minneapolis was spotted too late to sound warning sirens, a 10 year-old girl died. The suddenness of Saturday's fatal storm was UNUSUALLY RARE. "It went from nothing, to looking like a large tornado on the ground, in the span of four minutes." Saturday's storms were particularly tricky because they were part of a line of many individual storms, rather than the classic, enormous, self-contained "super cells" whose powerful updrafts and rotations are more readily detected on radar.

BOOM ASSOCIATED WITH QUAKE IN NEW ZEALAND -
NEW ZEALAND - A loud bang accompanying an earthquake centred off Takou Bay on Sunday had some coastal residents checking the sky for a meteor. The 8:34am earthquake 20km east of Kaeo and 20km north of Kerikeri was centred at a depth of 5km and had a magnitude of 3.5 on the Richter scale. Some heard what sounded like a big explosion which shook a stone home at Te Ngaire, rattled windows and moved a picture on a wall. "At first I thought something had landed on the roof. Some people rushed out of their houses thinking it was something from space like they've been getting in the South Island." Along the road at Te Ngaire, "there was an awful boom and everything vibrated". It had sounded like a door slamming loudly or a gas cylinder exploding. "We thought maybe it was thunder, but it was too abrupt for that - more like a sonic boom." At Matauri Bay, a woman said the bang had sounded "like a quarry blast". The bang was also heard at Kerikeri, where among the suggestions for its cause was: "We thought it might be a P lab blowing up." Another "rattle" was heard much later on Sunday at both Matauri Bay and Te Ngaire, where a Mrs. Sale pointed out a unique anniversary. She said it was 25 years to the day that "a smoky thing" appeared in her home during a major storm. Scientists had investigated and attributed the phenomena to plasma or ionised gas formed by lightning.

Thursday, September 21, 2006 -

GETTING OLD - I don't eat health food, I need all the preservatives I can get.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/20 -
5.0 NORTHERN CHILE
9/19 -
5.9 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.7 SOUTH OF TONGA ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 02C was 747 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Cyclone 04A was 389 nmi W of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm GORDON was 297 nmi E of Lajes, Azores.
Hurricane HELENE was 469 nmi SE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Typhoon YAGI was 358 nmi NE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - Storms caused by a depression in the Bay of Bengal have killed more than 40 people in eastern India and Bangladesh and left hundreds of fishermen missing at sea. Thousands of people have been left homeless. Most of the deaths came in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, where heavy rains and strong winds caused flash floods. More than 31 people have been killed since Monday night, most from drowning and house collapses. In Bangladesh, three fishermen drowned and more than 100 were unaccounted for and feared dead after they were caught in rough seas and strong winds on Tuesday night.

HEAT -
European scientists voiced shock yesterday as they viewed pictures which showed Arctic ice cover had disappeared so much last month that a ship could sail unhindered from Europe's most northerly outpost to the North Pole. Perennial sea ice – thick ice that is normally present year-round and is not affected by the Arctic summer – had disappeared in a huge area. "This situation is unlike anything observed in previous record low-ice seasons." In the last weeks since the pictures were taken, what was open water has begun to freeze, as the autumn air temperatures over the Arctic begin to fall.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006 -

Sorry, no update today - friend in the hospital.
Not much to report anyways.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006 -

GAINING WEIGHT? I have flabby thighs, but fortunately my stomach covers them.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/18 -
5.2 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.4 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season may have had a slow start with no major hurricanes until mid-September, but the Eastern Pacific season has not been so quiet. By September 14, when yet another tropical depression reached storm strength and hence required a name, the National Hurricane Center was already on the twelfth name in its storm name list, Lane - Miriam is now the 13th. Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Hurricane GORDON (category 2) was 684 nmi W of Lajes, Azores.
Hurricane HELENE was 794 nmi NE of Fort de France, Martinique.
Tropical depression MIRIAM was 274 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression 02C was 682 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Typhoon YAGI was 817 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

GORDON - over the coming days, western Europe, including the British Isles, could feel the effects of the ex-tropical storm, with the potential for prolonged heavy rain, unseasonably high temperatures and strong winds. Hurricane Gordon is currently in the mid-Atlantic, but is moving east towards the Azores. Through this week it is expected to lose its strength, but the effects of the storm will be felt across the UK during the second half of the week. This weekend sees the Autumnal equinox. It is not uncommon at this time of year for the remains of ex-tropical cyclones (such as tropical storms and hurricanes) to move into northern latitudes and affect the weather across Europe. The impacts of such events are extremely variable. On this occasion we expect to see: Heavy, prolonged rain, especially in northern and western areas; unseasonably high temperatures, possibly up to 28 Degrees C, especially across south eastern areas; the potential for very strong winds, especially affecting northern and western areas; large sea swells coming onto southwest and west-facing beaches.

Hurricane Helene has strengthened into the second major storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and continues to gain power, with forecasters warning it could strike Bermuda by Friday. Helene intensified into a Category 3 storm late Sunday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
INDIA - the unexpected deluge in Barmer district (part of the Great Indian Desert or Thar Desert) not only “killed hundreds and destroyed property worth crores”, conservation of a variety of rare plants in the region is in peril. The waterlogged sandy stretches are squeezing life out of Barmer’s diverse fauna. The flood has also washed away fertile layers of soil and “unidentified” microbes — making the land fallow. The deluge, which broke a two-year drought cycle, occurred from August 21-August 24. Barmer and Jaisalmer received 600 mm of rain in four days, as against an annual average of 200 mm (and even less over the past few years). Thousands of desert-specific plants were destroyed. The water drained the nutrient content of the soil, reducing fertility. Scientists say crops like bajra, guar, moth, moong and vegetable will not be able to grow for a few years. The report has suggested several measures to tide over the catastrophe — like setting up a Germ Plasma Bank, Seed Bank, a nursery of desert plants to meet emergencies and save the gene-pool.

Monday, September 18, 2006 -

Why do seagulls fly over the sea?
Because if they flew over the bay they would be bagels.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/17 -
5.1 MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
5.5 MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
5.8 SAN JUAN PROVINCE, ARGENTINA

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - The devastating tsunami not only caused widespread destruction along the country's east coast, it has also resulted in over-fishing in the Indian maritime. However, the phenomenon is not caused by damage to coastal flora and fauna in the 2004 tsunami aftermath, but due to measures taken to rehabilitate affected fishermen in the coastline. "A large number of fishing boats were provided to fishermen and consequently fishing along the coastline has recorded a significant rise since then." The area within 10 kms from the east coast is being over-exploited as far as fishing is concerned, because the fishermen are now equipped with better boats and fishing equipment.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - At least 13 quakes and one small eruption with black smoke were recorded in the volcanic activities of Mount Talang in Solok district in West Sumatra on Sunday.

NIGERIA - There could be large scale volcanic eruption in Song Local Government Area of Adamawa State given the recent eruptions in the area. The first major eruption occurred in the area in 1998. Two other eruptions occurred in 2003. Although no life was lost due to the eruptions, there was evidence of rock displacements, the death of cattle and overflowing of the Loko river. National Technical Committee on Earthquake Phenomenon members are currently touring Adamawa, Benue, Taraba, Cross River and Akwa Ibom states to ascertain the impact of a possible earthquake in the area. The committee is also to ascertain the impact of a volcano along the mid-Atlantic ridge on the Cameroon’s Lagdo dam and its effect on Nigeria.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane GORDON was 656 nmi ENE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane HELENE was 775 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical depression LANE was 196 nmi NE of La Paz, Mexico.
Tropical storm MIRIAM was 314 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm SHANSHAN was 274 nmi NNE of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm YAGI was 825 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Powerful Typhoon SHANSHAN has been buffeting Japan for the last few days and has left nine people dead and more than 200 injured. Shanshan made landfall late on Friday, causing torrential rains over the weekend that triggered flash floods and landslides. It has now weakened to a tropical storm and is heading out to sea. But high winds are still affecting the south-west of the country, delaying transport services. Typhoon Shanshan caused its most serious damage in the regions of Kyushu and Chugoku. The high winds caused by the typhoon overturned cars, derailed an express train and temporarily knocked out electricity in tens of thousands of homes. Heavy rains are expected to continue in central and northern Japan until Tuesday morning, and high waves are thought likely to hit the Sea of Japan coastline. The storm may make landfall on the northern island of Hokkaido on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - With Orissa experiencing heavy rains when yet another low pressure area formed over Bay of Bengal, lightning killed at least 74 cows at Chhatipur village in Khurda district. One cowherd tending the cattle was injured while other two with him had a miraculous escape. The thunderbolt struck a herd of over 300 cattle grazing in an open field near the village killing 74 of them and injuring 113 other cows.

BANGLADESH - At least six people were killed as lightning struck a tea shop beside a highway near the beach resort of Cox's Bazar in southern Bangladesh, police and witnesses said Sunday. Three others were seriously injured in the incident which occurred Saturday night. The dead and the injured were local farmers drinking tea at the shop during a tropical storm.

Sunday, September 17, 2006 -

Did you hear about the two silkworms who had a race? It ended in a tie.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/16 -
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
6.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.6 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.9 SEA OF JAPAN
9/15 -
5.4 NEW IRELAND
5.5 NEW BRITAIN
5.1 VANUATU ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane GORDON was 544 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane HELENE was 775 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm LANE was 154 nmi NNW of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Tropical storm MIRIAM was 318 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon SHANSHAN was 86 nmi WNW of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm 16W was 765 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

MEXICO - Hurricane Lane has made landfall in Mexico, lashing the country's Pacific coastline with heavy winds and torrential rain. The eye of the category three storm missed the coastal resort of Mazatlan, slamming into a sparsely populated area north of the town. It is projected to weaken slightly as it bears down on the state capital of Culiacan, home to 750,000 people. A hurricane warning is in effect for a 350km (210-mile) stretch of coastline. Mazatlan was caught off-guard when the storm swung unexpectedly towards it after initially heading for the Baja California peninsula. Parts of the town suffered power cuts. Further south on Friday, a seven-year-old boy died in a rockslide as the Hurricane Lane dumped heavy rains on the resort of Acapulco and flooding forced at least 500 people from their homes in the port city of Lazaro Cardenas. Forecasters have warned that the storm could unleash up to 63cm (25 inches) of rainfall, bringing with it flash floods and mudslides.

Hurricane Helene formed in the open Atlantic on Saturday. Helene's winds were clocked with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/hr, making it a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Lane strengthened to a Category 3 on Saturday. A weakened Hurricane Gordon had top sustained winds near 120 km/h, down slightly from Friday. Gordon was centred about 1,060 kilometres east of Bermuda and was nearly stationary.

Typhoon SHANSHAN - Kills 2 on Japanese Islands. The strong typhoon battered Japan's southern Ryukyu island chain on Saturday, and two people died after heavy downpours triggered a landslide.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
THAILAND - Residents of a village in Chiang Rai's Theong district have been warned of a possible landslide after a 500-metre-long crack developed on a nearby hill. It was first noticed after heavy rainfall a few weeks ago but has grown since. The hillside could collapse onto the village if there was any more heavy rainfall. Meanwhile the flood situation in Ayutthaya province threatens to become more serious due to the rising level of the Chao Phya River. Residents of Phak Hai and Sena districts were warned to prepare for flooding that is expected to peak in the next few days. Bang Rakam district of Phitsanulok province remained submerged yesterday, with 5,652 households in seven subdistricts affected by the flooding.

ITALY - Heavy rainstorms with copious quantities of water have created much flooding in the countryside. Where the bad weather meant violent storms, damage has been done to plants, greenhouses and farming outfits. As a result, all the agricultural operations have been affected, including grape harvests, which have been slowed down throughout Italy. "The bad weather hasn't spared any region and everywhere has been affected by some damage or problems for agricultural companies involved in harvesting or in ploughing fields. The losses are impossible to estimate accurately at the moment, and are continually rising, partly as a result of rivers flooding and torrents of water. The alarm raised by the civil protection services spread quickly throughout the countryside, where the water was not absorbed by the parched land because it fell so heavily. Thus it tended to flow away immediately, taking the top layer of soil with it and creating the conditions for landslides and avalanches". As much as 7.1 per cent of the country, a total of over 21,000 square kilometres, is considered to be at risk of landslides and flooding. In addition, those in the farming industry are currently extremely worried about hail and the irreversible damage it could do to fruit and vegetables still in the fields, such as apples and pears. Between drought and bad weather, this summer the industry has had losses and damage worth over a billion euro.

AFRICA - A particularly extreme rainy season has led to flash floods killing almost 1,000 people and displacing 120,000 in the Horn of Africa, since the beginning of August, as flood waters swept across parched earth across Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan. Nearly 200,000 people in Ethiopia have been affected. Rising water levels of Kenya's lake Turkana have reduced its ability to act as a buffer to overflowing rivers, and is losing its ability to take in water from rivers flowing into it. Dams and levees in Ethiopia could give way in the coming weeks. "Thousands of people are in need of urgent humanitarian relief as entire communities have been displaced, disrupted, bereaved, and have lost vital livestock and farmland." Flooding has also affected thousands in West Africa, with 30,000 people in Niger and 20,000 in neighbouring Burkina Faso.

Friday, September 15, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - If you are going to try cross-country skiing, start with a very small country.

One Death and Multiple Hospitalizations in Several States - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is issuing an alert to consumers about an outbreak of E. coli in multiple states that may be associated with the consumption of produce. To date, preliminary epidemiological evidence suggests that BAGGED FRESH SPINACH may be a possible cause of this outbreak. Based on the current information, FDA advises that consumers not eat bagged fresh spinach at this time. States that have reported illnesses to date include: Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah and Wisconsin.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/14 -
5.0 KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER REGION
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - U.S. Geological Survey scientists had charted earthquake swarms and even small eruptions since Mount St. Helens volcano's 1980 massive eruption, but those lasted a matter of days or weeks. The current eruption has lasted nearly two years. In the first two days of the earthquakes officials weren't even sure if this was an eruption, they just knew they were recording hundreds of earthquakes each day. "Within two or three days we started thinking it was leading up to an eruption, but we certainly didn't have a sense that it would last for two years. Even if we'd had known this was going to be a lava dome-building eruption, I don't think anyone would have thought that it would have lasted this long." Lava first reached the crater on Oct. 11, 2004, and hasn't stopped since. In the past two years the volcano has thrust more than 100 million cubic yards of volcanic rock into the crater, eclipsing the 97 million cubic yards it took six years to squeeze out during the 1980s. Significantly different from the devastating 1980 eruption, the volcano now is emitting relatively low levels of gas, meaning this eruption is much less likely to be explosive. The current eruption has illustrated how quickly dormant volcanoes can "wake up" in just a day or two.

PHILIPPINES - Mount Mayon’s abnormal parameters slightly fluctuated again in the past 24 hours, with magma-ascent indicator volcanic earthquakes detected 18 times compared with eight the previous day. The lava extrusion tremors were up from 108 to 111, and the volume of sulfur dioxide emission was fixed at 1,500 tons a day in the past three days. Intermittent rolling lava and crater glow continued to crown the volcano Wednesday. Volcanologists said alert level 3 might be further lowered in one to two more weeks, depending on the day-to-day showing of the volcano’s abnormal parameters.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane GORDON was 546 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm HELENE was 1129 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm LANE was 95 nmi W of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon SHANSHAN was 232 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Lane lashed Mexico‘s Pacific Coast with winds and rain Thursday, flooding streets in Acapulco before setting on a course to hit the hurricane-battered tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were issued for a stretch of coast southeast of the resort of Puerta Vallarta.

Tropical Storm Helene developed from a tropical depression in the open Atlantic late Wednesday, while Hurricane Gordon strengthened into a powerful 'Category 3' hurricane and the remnants of Hurricane 'Florence' brought high winds and heavy rain to Newfoundland in Canada. "It's possible that some waves could make their way toward Bermuda, but right now the forecast track has Gordon well to the east of Bermuda." Florence's remains brought wind gusts of more than 100 mph (160 kph) and bands of rain to southern and south-eastern Newfoundland, and dangerous surf was expected. Tropical storm warnings were discontinued late Wednesday as the extra-tropical storm pulled away from Newfoundland. Extra-tropical storms get their energy from the collision of warm and cold fronts, not the steamy ocean waters that tropical systems feed on.

CANADA - Residents of a small outport on Newfoundland's south coast say they will help a young family rebuild their home after tropical storm Florence ripped the house in two, heaving half of it into the ocean.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ILLINOIS - More than four inches of rain fell on Morris, causing stereet and basement flooding. Rainfall of this magnitude is MOST UNUSUAL for the month of September, which is usually the dry time of the year. "We probably have had in Morris this month more rain than we've had during the entire month the last two to three Septembers. September is typically a pretty dry month. This is VERY UNUSUAL. Four inches of rainfall is unusual at any time. Matter-of-fact, 3.5 inches of rainfall causes significant flooding." Meteorologists blamed the precipitation on the tail end of a weather system that hung around since last Friday, scattering heavy rain throughout northeast Illinois. This morning was Morris's turn, as the system dumped nearly five inches of rain in little more than two hours.

ETHIOPIA - At least eight people, including a family of seven, were killed in a fierce rainstorm that pounded eastern Ethiopia as floods continued to ravage the country. The new fatalities brought the nationwide toll from UNUSUALLY heavy seasonal rains and flash floods since last month to at least 647 and came in Dire Dawa, which is still recovering from deadly August flooding. This week devastating floods continued to wreak havoc across Ethiopia, affecting 357,000 people. Large areas of cropped land are swamped by the flood as unusually heavy seasonal rains had expanded Lake Tana, the region's largest body of water, by 50 metres. Forecasters have warned the country will likely face further flood threats from the rains that are expected to continue until the end of the wet season in September. Ethiopia, home to some 70 million people, has faced heavy floods and droughts in recent years along with other countries in the Horn of Africa which have endured cycles of deadly weather for decades.

HEAT -
Nasa satellite has documented startling changes in Arctic sea ice cover between 2004 and 2005. The extent of "perennial" ice - thick ice which remains all year round - declined by 14%, losing an area the size of Pakistan or Turkey. The last few decades have seen summer ice shrink by about 0.7% per year. The drastic shrinkage may relate partly to UNUSUAL wind patterns found in 2005, though rising temperatures in the Arctic could also be a factor. The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the global average; and recent studies have shown that the area of the Arctic covered by ice each summer, and the ice thickness, have been shrinking. September 2005 saw the lowest recorded area of ice cover since 1978, when satellite records became available. If the pace of Arctic melting is quickening, the implications for the future are not reassuring. Ice reflects the Sun's energy back into space; open water absorbs it. So a planet with less ice warms faster, potentially turning the projected impacts of global warming into reality sooner than anticipated.

EL NINO-
The periodic phenomenon known as El Nino has developed in the Pacific Ocean threatening extreme weather in many parts of the world. El Ninos begin with a warming of waters in the eastern Pacific, and there has been a steep rise in water temperature in recent weeks. This El Nino is likely to strengthen towards the end of the year and early into 2007. However it is not expected to reach the strength of the 1997 phenomenon. In that year El Nino brought drought to parts of Asia and Australia, and heavy rains and floods to Latin America. This latest phenomenon may explain why this year's Atlantic hurricane season has so far been weaker than expected - winds associated with El Nino events disrupt and weaken storm formation. The researchers are predicting a milder-than-average winter for much of North America, and wetter weather for the US Gulf Coast and Florida.

Thursday, September 14, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - Why is it that if you hang something in your closet for a while, it shrinks two sizes?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/13 -
5.2 NW. KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Scientists have raised the alert level at rumbling Mt. Taland volcano on Indonesia's Sumatra island after it showed signs of increased activity, but a major eruption is not imminent. Sensors on the slopes of Mount Talang picked up increased volcanic activity and a buildup of gases, but the mountain did not send debris or lava down its slopes. The mountain was spewing brownish smoke some 250m into the air on Sunday, after the alert was raised to the second-highest level a day earlier, but nearby towns and villages were in no danger.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane GORDON was 438 nmi ESE of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression HELENE was 1607 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical depression LANE was 122 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Typhoon SHANSHAN was 387 nmi SSW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical depression 15W was 195 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.

CANADA - Heavy rainfall and strong winds pounded parts of southern and eastern Newfoundland as tropical storm Florence made its way through the region. Winds that began gaining strength at about midnight Tuesday reached as high as 120 km/h by noon Wednesday. The wild weather triggered flooding along some streets, caused rivers to swell and created high waves along the shore that pounded the coast. There were isolated blackouts. Analysts predicted the possibility of a heavy storm season in Atlantic Canada this year, based on the fact that the temperature of a large section of the North Atlantic was three degrees above normal, hampering the ocean's ability to cool and calm tropical storms.

Typhoon Shanshan - (Luis) is threatening extreme southern Luzon in the Philippines with big waves, flashfloods and landslides possible.

TYPHOON IOKE - A 20-member military team on Wake Island reported that Typhoon Ioke caused significant damage. The team arrived on Sept. 8. Members found the runway remained intact, but the lights were missing. The typhoon inflicted moderate to severe damage to about 70 percent of the buildings on the island. The island's power grid suffered major damage.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - residents were affected by flash flooding yesterday, as early-afternoon thunder showers created rising panic among residents in the central and eastern areas. Rains started around 1:30pm and continued steadily for almost two hours. Heavy rain caused part of a hillside to collapse, pushing two parked vehicles to the opposite side of the road.

VIETNAM - Landslides are threatening 4,500 households on the banks of the Tien and Hau Rivers in the Mekong Delta province of Dong Thap. Serious landslides destroyed over 1,300 m of road in Dong Thap’s Thanh Binh District last week. Some landslides eroded up to 100m of shoreline, damaging over 30ha of farmland owned by 300 households in Tan Binh Village.

SPAIN - Heavy rains Wednesday continued to spark flooding in eastern Spain, where rail and road traffic suffered interruptions or delays. The previous day, a 83-year-old woman was killed on the Balearic Island of Majorca when a rainstorm caused a wall of her home to collapse and she was swept away by the current. Heavy rains were expected to continue in 10 out of Spain's 17 autonomous regions. The worst situation was reported in northeastern Catalonia, where Barcelona underground stations were inundated and local and long- distance train services suffered interruptions and delays.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - If you can remain calm, you probably don't have all the facts.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/12 -
5.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.8 LA RIOJA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS

NEVADA - Las Vegas could be due for an earthquake. Underneath is a network of faults that experts say could trigger an earthquake at any time. And as this city grows, a major quake could kill hundreds and cause billions of dollars of damage. Those who moved here to escape the threat of an earthquake actually moved to the third most active state. There hasn't been a major earthquake in the valley for centuries leading some to wonder if they're overdue.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane FLORENCE was 402 nmi SSE of Halifax, Nova Scotia.(LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS.)
Tropical storm GORDON was 482 nmi NE of St. Thomas.
Tropical Depression 08 was 1620 nmi S of Lajes, Azores. (should become Tropical Storm Helene today).
Typhoon SHANSHAN was 375 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical Depression 15W was 116 nmi SW of Hong Kong.

RAIN-
AUSTRALIA - The Sunshine Coast received almost twice its monthly average rainfall in just one soaking 24-hour period Moday. Mother Nature served up gale-force winds of up to 110km/h along with the drenching rains across most of the Coast, while on Sunday areas of Noosa copped an UNSEASONAL hail storm. The average September rainfall is 45.8mm but that figure was blown out of the water in just one day when Maleny scored 62mm, Maroochydore 82mm and Nambour 66mm to 3pm. “It is QUITE an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN for this time of year. Usually you get dry, gusty and hot conditions, but this is more like a June weather pattern and it’s a bit like Melbourne weather. It’s also definitely cooler than usual and we got close to our record coldest temperature for September on Sunday."

Tuesday, September 12, 2006 -

LIVE HAPPILY EVER NOW.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/11 -
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS
5.3 EASTERN KASHMIR
5.1 SEA OF OKHOTSK
Bunches of small quakes in the BALTIC STATES-BELARUS-NW RUSSIA over the last few days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane FLORENCE was 97 nmi NW of Hamilton, Bermuda. (Winds are expected to cause very rough and dangerous surf conditions with potentially deadly rip current along nearly the entire Atlantic East Coast of North America for the next several days.)
Tropical storm GORDON was 462 nmi NNE of Fort de France, Martinique. (likely to become a hurricane in a day or so, but also likely to spend its life over water and not make landfall)
Typhoon SHANSHAN was 481 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Typhoon Shanshan , a mid-strength typhoon, was taking aim at Taiwan and the southern islands of Japan today. It could strike Okinawa as early as Friday, according to a Tropical Storm Risk alert service bulletin. It could also change direction completely.

Hurricane Florence blew over Bermuda but spared the territory massive damage, with Canadian forecasters predicting it will pass close to Newfoundland's most populous region late Wednesday.

Gordon is the seventh named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season, and the second named storm to form in September. Most early computer tracking models show Gordon on a path out into the Atlantic away from any populated areas.

Monday, September 11, 2006 -

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY - What if the hokey-pokey really IS what it's all about?

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/10 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.9 GULF OF MEXICO
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 BANDA SEA

GULF OF MEXICO - A magnitude 6.0 earthquake that originated in the Gulf of Mexico at 10:56 a.m. Sunday rattled windows of Florida residents, and tremors were felt as far north as Georgia and Alabama. The epicenter of the quake was in 260 miles west-southwest of Clearwater, Florida and about 6.2 miles below the surface. Florida is located on the trailing (or passive) margin of the North American Plate while California is located on its active margin. Florida's unique geology makes it difficult to define faults. "The natural process that causes limestone to dissolve may obscure what was originally a faulted surface." (map)
The strong earthquake in the Gulf of Mexico that sent shocks through Florida on Sunday was RARE in various ways, scientists said. The intensity of the earthquake - magnitude 6 - was UNUSUAL. "This is quite a big earthquake for that area." Earthquakes in the Gulf are UNUSUAL because the sea is not near the edge of a tectonic plate, the massive pieces of the Earth's surface layer that are in constant movement. Consequently, there have been only about a dozen earthquakes registered in the Gulf in the past 30 years. By comparison, areas such as Indonesia can register twice that many in a day. The location of the quake puzzles scientists. Because the Gulf is not near the edges of the North American plate upon which it sits, the seismic movement had to occur in the interior of the plate itself. Such midplate earthquakes are RARE. "Most earthquakes - 99 percent of them, I'd say - occur alongside the edges. This earthquake is what we call a midplater, a quake that occurs in the middle of the plates. They are very infrequent." Scientists are still trying to understand how such midplate quakes come to be, but they think the tension generated at the edges of the plates sometimes travels inward, into the middle of the plate, where it is then released. Underwater earthquakes occur more frequently than the public is aware of, but usually near the plate edges. This quake, being far from any plate edge, is a fact that, when combined with it's relative strength, makes it noteworthy but not worrisome.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 07 was 517 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane FLORENCE was 221 nmi SSW of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm SHANSHAN was 589 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Florence has strengthened into a category one hurricane as it heads towards the Bermuda islands. The sixth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Florence was upgraded early on Sunday with winds of up to 120km/h (75mph). It is expected to strengthen further and reach the tiny UK territory today - although it is not clear whether it will be a direct hit.

Tropical storm Shanshan is forecast to strike Japan as a category 2 typhoon at about 18:00 GMT on 15 September. (map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
NEPAL - At least eleven people including two children have been killed in flood, landslide and lightning in various parts of Nepal. In Kabilas area in Chitawan district, due to flood caused by incessant rain, some 300 houses were swept away. Two people were killed by lightning and one killed by landslide in Hetauda in Makawanpur district in central Nepal.

PHILIPPINES - Yet another natural calamity hit the Province of Misamis Oriental early morning Sunday, this time killing three persons with two kids still missing. This is the fourth natural calamity that hit the Province of Misamis Oriental during the rainy months of August and September. The first was a cloudburst at Balingasag that killed an entire family of four. This was followed by big waves and strong winds that killed a mother and her son at Liberatad. The third natural calamity was another cloudburst at Lagonglong that has affected hundreds of families and agricultural crops. Meanwhile, heavy rains and strong winds started late Friday night causing the river along San Roque Village Relocation Site, Barangay Dayawan, Villanueva to rise up and overflow. At around 1 a.m. morning Sunday, there was then massive flooding in the areas near the river.

MAINE - Line squall causes outages throughout central Maine. A fast-moving, rain-carrying, lightning-fueled squall line racing through central Maine left a lot of people in the dark Saturday night. Part of the storm appeared as a funnel cloud. "It looked like a finger sticking out of the sky." Other people called police reporting the same UNUSUAL weather phenomenon.

Sunday, September 10, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/9 -
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI
5.0 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 CHILE-ARGENTINA BORDER REGION
5.0 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
6.1 FLORES SEA
9/8 -
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS
5.3 NEW BRITAIN

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - The largest volcano in Europe is erupting, and it is putting on quite a colorful display. Lava is oozing from the southeastern crater of Mount Etna. The volcano's eruption is being caused by lava explosions inside the crater. The eruption is happening about 9,300 feet above sea level, so experts said it is not a threat to people or homes in the area. Etna Webcam

PHILIPPINES - Mayon's lava flow in its 2006 eruption is the LONGEST IN ITS HISTORY, lasting 56 days as of September 8. The volcano has been able to sustain its continuous flowing of lava even in the absence of strong explosions. This is a new characteristic compared to prior behavior in which strong explosions culminated into lava flow.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 14W was 400 nmi NNW of Yap, Caroline Islands.
Tropical storm FLORENCE was 327 nmi S of Hamilton, Bermuda.

IOKE - Wake Island suffered severe wind damage when Super Typhoon Ioke passed over the island a week ago, and may have lost an entire season's reproduction of 11 seabird species. But a Coast Guard team delivered to the island by boat has found that there were no spills from island tanks that hold some 3 million gallons of aircraft fuel, oil and other compounds. Ponded water visible in photos taken two days after the storm's passage suggest either heavy rain or inundation by storm-driven seawater. Ioke hit during the breeding season for tens of thousands of seabirds on Wake. Wind speeds approaching 200 mph, and storm surges that may have swept across the entire island, would likely have killed off the entire stock of eggs and chicks.

El Niño might signal end of hurricane season - It can't be said with certainty, but the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season might come to a premature end soon. The Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that an El Niño is forming in the eastern Pacific and that this cooling of waters could cut short the Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and last year a number of storms formed in November and December. Today (Sunday) is considered the peak of hurricane season. When El Niño forms, winds over the Atlantic become strong from the west. As Atlantic systems move westward toward Florida and the United States, the developing storms meet strong upper-level winds and are torn apart. That's what is beginning to happen now. The El Niño is "UNUSUAL" for this time of year and because of that no one can be sure exactly what will happen next. If the El Niño is long-lived, as previous ones were, "it will probably last through the hurricane season of 2007, helping to suppress hurricane activity next year." The formation of El Niño at this time of year has happened only once in the last half-century. For the upcoming winter, El Niño will mean wetter than normal conditions for Florida and the Southeast. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, mostly due to the excessive cloud cover.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
NEPAL - Landslide kills one, highways blocked. At least one person was killed in a landslide following incessant rainfall in Chitwan Saturday. Umdi River in Chitwan has swept away some parts of Bharatpur. Several areas in Narayangarh bazaar have been waterlogged due to incessant rain. Likewise, rain has also affected life in Makawanpur district while rescue operations have been hampered. More than 30 people have been killed by floods and landslide over the last few weeks around the country.
Floods caused by dammed rivers - In Myagdi, two more houses were buried while more than 25 families of 12 households have been displaced by landslides that occurred at Torakhet of Bhakimli VDC-9 on Wednesday morning. The landslide is still continuing and additional rainfall may bury the entire village. Five houses had been swept away in the same place a week ago.

BHUTAN - A massive landslide after two days of incessant rain has cut off the Pasakha industrial estate from its town where most of the residential areas are located. Though the initial slide could not stop vehicles from crossing the stretch, another slide about half an hour later completely blocked the road. “A huge portion of the mountain slope came crashing down.” According to the residents, the slides continued for more than three hours bringing along huge chunks of rock and loose soil. Residents said that landslides were common in that area during monsoon.

INDIA - Uttar Pradesh is facing a climatic paradox. While several districts in one part of the state are inundated by floods, another part of the state faces a severe drought. Such FREAK weather conditions have never been experienced at least in the past two decades. The floods have claimed more than 50 lives in UP so far. Lakhs of people have been marooned in hundreds of villages in central UP districts like Barabanki and Bahraich where dams have been breached by high velocity water currents. A senior Irrigation Department official said that the main reason for this was the water released from Nepal into Indian territory.

ARIZONA - RECORD RAINFALL claims a life - A man was swept to his death in a South Side wash that flooded when more than an inch of rain drenched Tucson on Thursday morning. The 1.14 inches of rain recorded at Tucson International Airport set a record for rainfall on Sept. 7 and makes this year's monsoon the eighth-wettest on record, with 9.83 inches since June 15. The storms closed streets and brought down utility poles.
The storm was a strange one - Thursday's rain came mostly between 6 and 9 a.m., ATYPICAL for a monsoon storm. Summer rains normally are spurred by rising heat in the late afternoon, but this storm was caused by a weather system from Utah and Nevada.

Friday, September 8, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/7 -
5.4 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

INDIA - utter panic and chaos gripped Assam following predictions by a geologist from the University of Madras that a high magnitude earthquake was likely to hit the region today. People across the state were making bulk purchases of essentials and medicines. People could be seen queuing up outside ATMs to withdraw cash preparing for the disaster.
The Assam government is likely to ask New Delhi to form a core group of experts to verify any future predictions or warnings on disaster made by individuals before it is made public, to avoid unnecessary panic. Locals in Assam, though relieved that there was no quake, are now angry after the predictions proved wrong. As the appointed time for the quake passed, people embraced each other and cheered with a sense of jubilation.

TSUNAMI -
THE MEDITERRANEAN region – particularly the area around Greece – could be hit by a major tsunami before the end of the century, a scientist said. Because of the region’s tourism boom over the last five decades, the consequences would be devastating. A major tsunami occurs in the Mediterranean about every 136 years. The last one happened in the south Aegean sea in 1956, killing four people and causing shipwrecks and widespread coastal damage. An even worse tsunami, which hit the Sicilian city of Messina in 1908, killed 1,500 people. An additional 60,000 lost their lives because of the quake that triggered it. A Mediterranean tsunami would unlikely be as strong as the one that spread across the Indian Ocean region in December 2004, because the nature of the sea basin means it would not spread across the whole sea. Global statistics show about 10% of the world’s tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and even landslides can cause huge waves that wreak havoc along coastlines. In 1979, at least a dozen people in the French resort of Nice drowned when an undersea landslide – attributed to the construction of a new airport – caused a tsunami.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Eruption of Mayon about over, experts say. Mayon Volcano’s eight-week eruption is nearing its end, giving fresh hope to tens of thousands of people displaced by its lava flows, officials said yesterday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FLORENCE was 492 nmi NE of Fort de France, Martinique. Satellite images indicate that Florence remains poorly organized with an elongated shapeless cloud pattern which is not very typical of a tropical cyclone. The NOAA can not find any good reason why Florence has not yet intensified since the ingredients commonly used to forecast strengthening are present.
Tropical depression KRISTY was 1268 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico .
Tropical Storm Florence will send dangerous swells over the eastern U.S. coastline as the UNUSUALLY BROAD cyclone churns northwest in the Atlantic toward Bermuda, forecasters warned on Thursday. The sixth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before its center passes west of Bermuda early next week. Florence is forecast to strike Bermuda as a hurricane at about 21:00 GMT on 11 September. Florence was over the open sea and expected to turn away from the United States. But it was an unusually large storm more than 1,000 miles wide. Forecasters said it would roil the surf along the eastern U.S. shore, make swimming dangerous and erode beaches. "Since the wind field is so large, it will send a swell out ahead of the system. That looks like it will affect much of the east coast Sunday into Monday."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
MEXICO - A landslide buried buses and cars on a highway in the central state of Puebla and killed at least four travelers and injured at least 11 Thursday, a day after a separate avalanche left 10 villagers dead in northern Mexico. It was not clear if they expected to find more victims, or exactly what caused the landslide. A landslide Wednesday that authorities said was triggered by heavy rains killed 10 people, mostly children, and injured three others when five homes were buried by mud in the remote indigenous village of Chalchihuitillo.

AUSTRALIA - The gale force winds and record flooding rain that hit Sydney Wednesday night have left one man dead and the city's transport system struggling to resume normal services. The storm fatality was a man believed to have fallen from a yacht in storm-lashed Sydney Harbour who was pulled unconscious from the water. 90.6mm of rain deluged metropolitan Sydney city between 9pm and 5am. The western suburbs and, significantly, the Warragamba catchment area, reported heavy falls, some exceeding the average for the whole of September.

Thursday, September 7, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/6 -
6.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.7 SCOTIA SEA
5.4 EASTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA

INDIA - There is a 70 percent chance of a 7 - 8 magnitude earthquake hitting Assam on Friday, a geologist from the University of Madras has predicted on the basis of planetary positions. But seismologists debunk his theory. A statement issued by N. Venkatanathan of the Department of Applied Geology says the alignment of the Sun, Moon and Mercury that day is exactly similar to the one that existed on Aug 15, 1950, when an earthquake of a magnitude of 8.5 on the Richter scale killed thousands in Assam. Based on the analysis, he said the earthquake could occur around 8:21 am with its epicentre about 15 km southwest of Dibrugarh. "The Sun and Mercury will be aligned on one side of the Earth and the Moon at the opposite side along the same line." He said that though similar planetary alignments had taken place several times between 1950 and now, the "force changes were not conducive for triggering an earthquake every time... This, plus the fact that the region has experienced several small shocks in the last three weeks, and recent observation by seismologist Arun Bapat of [an] abrupt drop in atmospheric temperature in that region alerted me [to] give this prediction for Assam."

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said Mt. Mayon's condition is still abnormal as lava extrusion continues.

INDONESIA - alert level raised at smoking Mount Bromo volcano. Indonesia has raised the alert level at the volcano on Java island, and is urging villagers and tourists to stay off the mountain's slopes. Mount Bromo typically erupts once a year, but it does not send debris or lava far down its slopes and nearby towns and villages were in no danger. Bromo was placed at the second-highest alert level on Tuesday, meaning an eruption may occur within one or two weeks.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FLORENCE was 565 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical depression KRISTY was 1127 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

IOKE - a storm warning has been announced to the fleet sailing in the Pacific Ocean near the Kamchatka Peninsula coast in connection with the approach of Typhoon Ioke. The typhoon that is transforming into an active cyclone will maximally approach Kamchatka tonight. Winds are expected to strengthen in southern areas of the region to 25-30 metres per second. The wind will attain hurricane force of up to 43 metres per second at sea. The centre of the typhoon that is moving northeast to the Bering Sea will pass some 500 kilometres southwest of the Kamchatka coast at a speed of up to 60 kilometres per hour. On September 8, the atmospheric vortex will spread its influence on the whole of the Bering Sea where a strong storm is expected. Typhoon Ioke is currently east of the South Kuriles some 1,500 kilometres from Kamchatka, but its “indirect influence” is now felt here. Its effects will only become stronger in the coming hours, specialists say. 10 Chinese trawlers engaged in Pacific saury catches in the ocean have asked permission to shelter from the hurricane in the Iturup Island area.

Tropical Storm Florence could be a hurricane by Friday. Florence is getting better organized, with forecasters calling it an UNUSUALLY large Atlantic tropical storm. But they say it's too soon to know if it'll affect the U.S. For now, the sixth storm to get a name this season remains 960 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are getting a bit stronger at 45 miles an hour. That's still almost 30 miles an hour short of minimum hurricane strength. But the National Hurricane Center expects it to meet the criteria by Friday morning. Because it's a large storm, forecasters say it takes longer to develop and intensify, compared to smaller storms.

Hurricane season - Highly regarded weather watchers at Colorado State University on Friday slashed their forecast for the remainder of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, saying essentially they blew the outlook because vast volumes of Saharan sand blew in, drying up the atmosphere and sapping needed moisture from would-be tropical storms. Apart from the UNUSUAL role of West African dust, indications of a potential occurrence of El Nino also are affecting conditions. El Nino refers to unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean that can have important global consequences, including increased rainfall and flooding in the southern tier of the U.S. and Peru, and droughts in the western Pacific. In September, forecasters call for five named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes. There is a greater-than-normal chance of storms making landfall somewhere in the U.S. in the month, too. The probability of a named storm making landfall this month is 74%, compared with 67% over the past 52 years. The chance of a hurricane landfall is 59%, compared with 48%, while the possibility of an intense hurricane making landfall in the month is 35%, up from 27%. For October, the forecasters see "below average" activity, with two named storms, three hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Landfall probabilities in October are below average.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
VIETNAM - Deluge leaves Hanoi submerged. Heavy rains lashed Hanoi Tuesday, inundating streets and bringing traffic to a halt. The HIGHEST EVER RAINFALL IN THE LAST 5 YEARS, lasting from noon to 2 pm, submerged streets in more than a half-meter of water. Van Ho and Long Bien precincts recorded 101.5 and 82 millimeters respectively. Hundreds of vehicles were stalled. More rains were forecast in the north over the next 3-4 days.

NORTH CAROLINA - Thick thunderstorms aggravated flood conditions in eastern North Carolina on Tuesday night, and forecasters projected that the Northeast Cape Fear River could swell more than it did when Tropical Storm Ernesto hit last week. "This is basically Ernesto over again. It's not a pretty forecast." Some areas already had seen 6 inches of rain from the latest storms. Computer models projected that the Northeast Cape Fear could crest over 17 feet by Friday - more than 7 feet above flood levels. The river flowed at just 2 feet last Thursday, before Ernesto squeezed up to a foot of rain over the region.

INDIANA - The National Weather Service says an area in southeast Rockford received about six inches of rain during afternoon storms Wednesday. Powerful floodwaters submerged parts of Rockford and the chilly water trapped people in their homes and set off one dramatic rescue after another. At the intersection of 14th Street and Tenth Avenue, the water rose to about five feet. Many long-time residents call the surprise afternoon flooding UNPRECEDENTED. People were forced to abandon cars, watch possessions float by or wait on porches as boats were dispatched to carry them to safety.

KANSAS - As shifting weather patterns carry Kansas from summer to fall, they can create conditions for the kind of severe weather - tornadoes and large hail - more typically seen in spring. Historically, that second season peaks during the last 10 days of August and the first 10 days of September. But computer models suggest the entire period will pass this year without storms capable of tornadoes and large hail. "We may not even have a second season." The weather pattern that typically brings tornadoes and large hail to Kansas this time of year, called the "northwest flow" because the storm fronts swoop down from the northern Rockies into northwest Kansas, shows no signs of setting up for the foreseeable future. A calm second season would be consistent with the rest of this year's warm-weather months, forecasters say. To date, there have only been 13 tornadoes reported in the 26 counties of southeast Kansas included in the Wichita office's coverage area. That compares to 40 last year and 53 in 2004. Since 1950, when the service began keeping tornado statistics, the southeast quarter of Kansas has averaged about 17 tornadoes a year. For the past nine years, however, the region averaged nearly 33 a year - almost double the average.

ALASKA - Juneau sets RECORD for spring, summer days of rain. Juneauites are used to getting hammered with rain, after all it is a rainforest, but this year has been ridiculous. Measurable precipitation was recorded on 109 of 153 days from April through August. That surpasses the record of 106 days set in the spring and summer of 1973. Rivers and streams have overflowed and gardens have been ruined by oversaturation. 30.18 inches fell from April though August, just spring and summer in 1961 recorded a trace more rain than that.

DUBAI - A heavy sandstorm hit the UAE on Tuesday afternoon, causing visibility to plunge to as little as 50 metres. Driving conditions became hazardous when the wall of sand struck Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Ras Al Khaimah, Abu Dhabi and other parts of the country from about 3pm onwards. Forecasters said the storm was just the latest offbeat weather event after weeks of meteorological instability in the eastern parts of the UAE. Winds blowing from the south east to the north west gusted at up to 40 knots, churning up sand and dust. The weather system that caused the winds was moving across the UAE from east to west. "The storm was caused by winds coming down from thundery clouds a downdraft. It was quite a severe one because the winds were reaching high levels... This year, August and first week of September have been full of activity [in the eastern areas] we've NEVER HAD THIS TYPE OF THING DAY AFTER DAY BEFORE." There were daily reports of heavy clouds in eastern mountainous parts of the UAE, and on Tuesday those conditions reached the west coast. Drivers said they were shocked by the speed with which the sandstorm descended and cut visibility. As well as the sandstorms there were also unsettled conditions on the east coast, with meteorologists at Fujairah reporting thunderstorms. The storms were accompanied by heavy rains, causing heavy water flow through wadis and farmland.

Wednesday, September 6, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/5 -
5.1 WEST CHILE RISE
5.1 OFF COAST OF PERU
5.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

INDIA - A sudden drop in atmospheric temperature and smaller earthquakes have convinced seismologists of the need to alert the Asom government of a major earthquake likely to strike in the near future. The Asom government, after receiving the urgent alert notice from world famous seismologist Dr Arun Bapat, are not taking chances and have formally asked all district magistrates to be on alert for any eventuality. In the area, the temperature was below the normal temperature by 3-4 degrees and the occurrence was sudden. The Lakhimpur area itself is in a highly active seismic zone and Dr Bapat cited that a similar abrupt fall in atmospheric temperature was noticed in Pakistan's Rawalpindi last year before a major earthquake rocked the city and its suburbs. Meanwhile, the Geological Survey of India said that such changes in temperature could take place and there was no need to jump to conclusions. Two mild-intensity earthquakes which were recorded in the past 24 hours in the northeastern region have further complicated the picture as there has been growing panic in the state.

HAWAII - A 3.3-magnitude earthquake shook the ocean floor off Waikoloa Monday evening, the fourth temblor of 3.0 or more to strike the state in a week's time. Hawai'i is among the top states when it comes to seismic activity, ranking behind Alaska and California. Many of the quakes are linked to Hawai'i's volcanic activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FLORENCE was 591 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm KRISTY was 1021 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PENNSYLVANIA - "This truly has been a HIGHLY UNUSUAL summer for the number of storms." Ernesto was the 13th notable storm this summer in the area. This summer was ONE OF THE WETTEST IN RECENT YEARS with 25 percent more precipitation (16.7 inches) than normal for the period.

SNOW / COLD -
INDIA - Unprecedented rain in the Himalayas has led to heavy snowfall in large parts of Uttaranchal and Kashmir. In the Uttaranchal Himalayas, which usually gets snowfall in late October, the hills turned white after two days of snow during the first days of September, the FIRST TIME IN A DECADE that they had a white weekend. The unseasonal rain and snow were caused by a westerly trough and a low pressure area. With temperatures dropping to between sub-zero and five degrees centigrade in the region, people geared for an early winter.

CHANGING WEATHER SEASON -
CANADA - Tofino, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada's Pacific rain forest, usually receives about three metres of rain a year. It has had no serious rainfall since June and last month was the DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. "We've set a record for the driest August ever... we've always had rain in Tofino. It is a rain forest but the weather patterns are changing...It's certainly something that I think we're going to have to look at in the future in terms of global warming... this was definitely the biggest wake-up call."

Tuesday, September 5, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/4 -
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.2 JUJUY PROVINCE, ARGENTINA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm FLORENCE (very large) was 755 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm IOKE was 464 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression JOHN was 422 nmi NNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KRISTY (upgraded to a tropical storm, again) was 761 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

IOKE - In the western Pacific, long-lived Typhoon Ioke (110 mph) is churning northwestward far to the southeast of Japan. Ioke is forecast to weaken and turn to a northerly track over the next 48 hours, most likely bypassing Japan to the east. Huge surf from the typhoon, however, will pound the east coast of the nation with waves 20 to 30 feet high.

VIRGINIA - Storm-shocked Northumberland County homeowners said that weather forecasts left them unprepared for the fury of tropical depression Ernesto. The County Administratorcomplained to National Weather Service authorities that its predictions of Ernesto's path and power left county residents and homeowners with a false sense of security. National Weather Service forecasts given in numerous conference calls all understated the reality of the storm. "They were calling for winds of 35 miles per hour and tides 2 to 2½ feet above normal. We had wind gusts of 60 miles per hour and tides 5 and 5½ feet above normal." Forecasters and their computer models did not anticipate an UNUSUAL interaction between Ernesto and high pressure air to the north when the storm lumbered into the bay. The result strengthened Ernesto's northeast winds, which pushed water levels higher on exposed shores, causing more tidal flooding than expected.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
KASHMIR is facing its WORST EVER FLOOD CRISIS IN TWO DECADES with hundreds of villages and parts of capital Srinagar completely marooned. At least 14 people have died in Jammu after three days of incessant rains and freak floods. Over half a million people have moved to safer places to survive the floodwaters and the Army has been called in to undertake rescue missions in parts of Kashmir. The rising waters of Chenab River are eating away at farmlands every year. “We can only watch helplessly. The water rises and takes away our fields, this loss has become a annual feature for us now.” The rising Chenab in Akhnoor, near Jammu, has already affected 15 villages where agriculture is the only source of income. Many high altitude areas, including parts of the National highway, have also received heavy snowfall over the past three days.

SNOW / COLD -
INDIA - Cold gusts of wind and rain buffeted the Himachal Pradesh tourist town of Shimla, sending the temperature plummeting to an UNUSUAL 15 degrees Celsius, as the upper mountainous areas received rain and snow over the past two days. Peaks in the high altitudes and in the tribal Lahaul valley, some 350 km from here, received fresh snowfall Saturday setting off a cold spell in the mid hills of the state. Most areas of the state have been lashed by rain for the past few days. The gusty winds are being described as UNUSUAL for this time of the year. The standing apple crop has been damaged in several parts of the apple belt in the mid hills of the state.

CHANGING WEATHER SEASON -
BRITAIN - New research suggests the kind of extreme downpour usually associated with India and the tropics will become a familiar part of autumn in Britain as a result of global warming and climate change. To make matters worse, separate research from Britain's Met Office suggests that European heatwaves are likely to become much hotter and more frequent. And the changes are occurring even sooner than anticipated. From 1961-2000 extreme cloudbursts have become much more frequent and intense. The length of periods of storms and heavy rain have doubled over parts of the UK since the 1960s and where they once occurred every 25 years they now come around in six-year intervals. There has also been a change in the arrival of extreme rainfall with the majority now occurring in autumn. Scotland and Northern England have begun to get many more five-or 10-day periods of heavy rain. The south, on the other hand, got fewer periods of protracted rain - but many more heavy cloud bursts. "We are looking at an UNHEARD-OF RATE OF CHANGE in weather patterns which usually take place over tens of thousands of years."

AUSTRALIA'S rapid climate change had caught scientists by surprise, a leading water expert said. Experts had expected the changes, which have left much of the country suffering drought conditions, but thought they would take much longer to take effect. "I don't think any of us expected the climate change we have experienced over the last five years. I was expecting climate change but I was expecting it to take 30 years." Australia was drying out quickly and with water restrictions already in place in many areas, governments needed to consider all available options, such as recycling and desalination, to prevent an impending water crisis. "I wouldn't be surprised to see water prices double in Australia in the next couple of years, we are paying about $1 a kilolitre, in most Australian cities. In Germany they are paying $11 a kilolitre so we are very underpriced in terms of some other communities." "I think panic has set in with the bureaucrats, government and water engineers and they are jumping to big dams, big pipelines without doing the hard work and seeing how far they can push recycling. What's the point in building big dams if they remain half full? It's much smarter to move to recycling."
AUSTRALIA has recorded its DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD since accurate record-keeping began in 1900, increasing the chance of severe bushfires and giving little hope of an end to the crippling drought. It was also the WARMEST AUGUST since detailed monthly temperature data came on line in 1950. RECORD LOW WINTER RAINFALL was recorded over a large area of southern Western Australia and in parts of the eastern states. Rainfall deficits had also intensified across the nation's south east, including Tasmania, since the start of autumn. Large areas of eastern Australia have been in drought since 2002. Whether an El Nino develops or not, there is not much hope of decent rainfall in the months ahead. “The current warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific mean that the odds of good rainfall over Australia in late winter/spring are reduced, and that the above-average temperatures already being observed are likely to continue.”

Monday, September 4, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/3 -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.5 TONGA ISLANDS
5.6 TONGA ISLANDS
5.3 TOKELAU ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 06 was 1085 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Typhoon IOKE was 571 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical depression JOHN was 374 nmi NNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KRISTY was 586 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Depression 6 continued to move westward in the deep Atlantic today. It did not grow into a tropical storm overnight but it is expected to become Florence later today or Tuesday. The system is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by Friday. The depression was located about 1,345 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

JOHN - Military helicopters have flown in emergency aid after floods triggered by Tropical Storm John left 10,000 people stranded on Mexico's Baja California peninsula. People in 15 towns in the mountainous region of Baja California Sur state were cut off as flood waters reached up to 1.5m yesterday after John's heavy rains caused the Iguagil dam in Comondu to overflow its banks. No deaths were reported as the storm made its way up the peninsula. John could still produce enough rain in parts of central Baja California to trigger flash floods and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from the tropical depression could help dump up to eight centimetres of rain in the south-western United States and west Texas through today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
AUSTRALIA - RECORD RAINFALL has lashed north Queensland over the past 48 hours, causing road closures on a major highway. More than 270mm was dumped on the town of Cardwell, 150km south of Cairns, in the 48 hours to 9am today – nearly eight times the September average of 36mm. Neighbouring Ingham, south of the Cardwell Range, recorded about 166mm over 48 hours. The downpour has smashed rainfall records in both towns. Cardwell's previous 24-hour rainfall record was 97mm set in 1926, a figure broken twice in the past two days. But it fell in the wrong areas to help the severe drought in the state's south. Cairns Bureau of Meteorology said the rainfall was “PHENOMENAL”, adding that it was unseasonal. This weekend's heavy rain wrought havoc on the Bruce Highway at the Cardwell range, with three landslips in 24 hours blocking both lanes of traffic. The rainfall had been caused by the combination of an upper level low and a low pressure trough coming together around Cardwell, causing heavy, slow moving rain.

INDIA - Flooding triggered by monsoon rains in the past few days have left 1.5 million people homeless and damaged thousands of acres of paddy crop in the eastern Indian state of Orissa. Over 20,000 people were evacuated after hundreds of villages were cut off. Army troops were evacuating more villagers from coastal districts with the authorities braced for more rain. “We are bothered about the fresh formation of a low pressure over the Bay of Bengal and are closely monitoring its movement."
In Nepal, at least 50 people died last week in flash floods. Thousands of people have been evacuated to dry areas while officials are braced for any outbreak of diseases. Landslides and flash floods have also affected thousands of people in Pakistan.

Sunday, September 3, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/2 -
5.0 BANDA SEA
9/1 -
5.0 NEW CALEDONIA REGION
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
5.9 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.6 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
6.8 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Montserrat volcano spews ash and steam; scientists warn of increased activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon IOKE was 853 nmi NE of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm JOHN was 170 nmi NNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression KRISTY was 541 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO - High winds knocked down trees, created powerful waves and blew down utility lines yesterday. More than 400,000 homes in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region were without power on Saturday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto soaked the region with up to a foot (30 cm) of rain. Two people were reported dead in storm-related traffic accidents. Between 8 and 12 inches (20 and 30 cm) of rain fell in southeastern Virginia and a coastal town was evacuated.

HURRICANE JOHN left two people dead and another missing as it lashed north-western Mexico's Baja California peninsula with gusting wind and driving rain. A third person was reported missing after his vehicle was swept away by floodwaters.

Friday, September 1, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/31 -
5.0 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR S.CST OF EASTERN HONSHU
5.0 SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
5.0 SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.9 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 22 nmi NNW of Wilmington, North Carolina.
Typhoon IOKE was 742 nmi NNW of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Hurricane JOHN was 146 nmi SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane KRISTY was 491 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ernesto dumped heavy rain on North and South Carolina as it closed in on the US East Coast near hurricane strength overnight, and forecasters warned it could trigger life-threatening floods and tornadoes. Ernesto, which sloshed through Florida Wednesday after briefly becoming the Atlantic storm season's first hurricane near Haiti, had sustained winds of 113 km/h, just short of the 119 km/h needed for hurricane status.
CAROLINAS - Heavy rains fell across the Carolinas as Tropical Storm Ernesto nearly regained hurricane status Thursday. Several locations in the region received an estimated 10 inches of rain. Wilmington, N.C., set a RECORD DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION of 5.2 inches, beating the record for this day of 2.27 inches set in 2002.

Hurricane John - Luxury hotels sent foreign tourists home and the Mexican government ordered 10,000 local residents into shelters as Hurricane John took aim at the Baja California peninsula. John is a category three hurricane, packing sustained winds of 205km/h and stronger gusts. The Miami-based National Hurricane Centre forecast the storm will make a direct hit on the Los Cabos resort. After slamming into Los Cabos, the storm was expected to spin back out into the Pacific, posing no threat to the United States. John's winds and rains were strong enough to cause life-threatening flooding, severe damage to property and mudslides in mountainous areas. Rainfall of 150mm to 250mm, with isolated deluges of 450mm, was possible along the coast. The busy tourist resort of Acapulco had sea surges of up to 3.5 metres yesterday. Seafront roads were ankle-deep in water and people struggled to stay on their feet in winds that knocked down trees.

HEAT -
CHINA - The major drought affecting millions of people in southwestern China is now being called "the WORST IN A CENTURY", and searing temperatures have set off uncontrollable fires. 21 million people have found themselves affected, with more than seven million of them without adequate drinking water.

AUSTRALIA - LOWEST RAINFALL ON RECORD, DRIEST WINTER EVER RECORDED in the city of Ballarat. Just 87mm of rain fell this winter - the lowest level since weather records began almost a century ago in 1908. The grim winter rainfall count has caused Central Highlands Water to move restrictions up from stage two to stage three. August is traditionally Ballarat's wettest month, but the city only received 27mm, well below the monthly rainfall average of 75.4mm. A large number of high pressure systems had brought Ballarat frosty winter conditions but drier than average, clear skies. And Ballarat should brace itself for a drier than usual spring and a possible El Nino this year. "The surface temperatures are beginning to warm up in the eastern Pacific, which might suggest the risk of an El Nino. We should know in the next month."