JULY & AUGUST 2006 DISASTERS

Thursday, August 31, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/30 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

TSUNAMI -
RUSSIA - 'Mini-tsunami' - A search operation continues at Dolzhanskaya Spit (Azov Sea Coast), where tourists were washed away by a surge the evening of the 29th. Dolzhanskaya Spit, which is one of the favorite resorts for residents of Krasnodar Territory and Rostov Region, was inundated. According to witnesses, six people were washed away by the surge. Yeisk Search and Rescue Unit of the emergency ministry managed to find five missing tourists at about 02:00 a.m. One is still missing. Dozens of cars with non-official holiday-makers were evacuated from the spit. Eleven people and their cars remained at the spit, as they refused to move away. Ten life-guards and a boat were involved in the rescue operation.

INDONESIA - Thousands of residents of the tiny islands of Tual and Langgur (Maluku province) abandoned their homes the night of the 29th for safer ground after a tsunami alert was issued. The population fled after an earthquake measuring 5.4 on the Richter scale was registered off the coast of the Maluku Islands, eastern Indonesia, forcing the authorities to sound the alarm, which was eventually called off. People found refuge in the villages of Un and Kampung Raja and on Masbait Hill. A local governmental building is now used as a temporary shelter for panicked residents, but the picture of the situation on the two islands remains unclear due to poor communications. It is known though that residents still refuse to go home until they are certain that the tsunami danger is over.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - The sulfur dioxide (S02) emission of the rumbling Mayon Volcano abruptly increased to 9,733 tons on Wednesday from Tuesday's 3,864 tons. Mt. Mayon's normal S02 emission rate is pegged at 500 tons daily. The abrupt increase in the S02 emission rate was due to the degassing of magma after the two series of explosions recorded during the 24-hour observation period on Tuesday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 78 nmi E of Jacksonville, Florida. ERNESTO has about 18 hours over water in which to intensify, but is unlikely to regain hurricane strength.
Typhoon IOKE was 628 nmi N of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Hurricane JOHN was 59 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Hurricane KRISTY was 471 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Super-typhoon Ioke will have set the RECORD FOR MOST TIME SPENT AT CATEGORY 4 OR ABOVE by far by the time all is said and done. It is now starting to approach and affect various islands in the Pacific.

Hurricane John has weakened slightly to a category three storm but is still sustaining winds of 205km/h (125mph). It is moving north-west, parallel to the Mexican coastline, but so far the worst conditions have been at sea. Rain has been falling along parts of the coastline and forecasters warn that heavy downpours of up to 35cm (1ft) could cause "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides". Acapulco has experienced sea surges of up to 10ft (3.5m).
Another storm, Kristy, has meanwhile formed in the Pacific nearby, but is expected to remain at sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
NIGER - Torrential rains have left at least 17,000 people homeless in the north and south of Niger, according to authorities who have appealed for urgent assistance. The remote desert town Bilma in Agadez region, 1,500 km northeast of the capital Niamey has been hardest hit. In this town alone, some 3,400 people from 675 families have been driven from their homes or watched them destroyed by flooding. Bilma has received some 63 mm of rain in recent days - EQUIVALENT TO THE TOTAL RAINFALL RECORDED THERE OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. Another 700 people have left their homes in Ingal and Tabelot, also in the northeast region. In the south of Niger, heavy rains have also displaced 2,177 people around the major town Zinder in the southeast, and 2,261 near Madaoua, and 1,372 at Dogon Doutchi, both in the southwest. The government said it has started trying to relocate people to administrative buildings, but warns the majority are still without shelter.
Widespread flooding has also been reported in neighbouring northern Burkina Faso. Reports last week estimated at least 6,000 people there had left their homes. Flooding has also been reported in Liberia and parts of southern Senegal.

THAILAND - Continuous rainfall had led to landslides damaging five homes and 2,000 rai of forest in Nan's Thung Chang and Chalermprakiat districts, prompting officials to evacuate locals to temporary shelters. The discovery of a 700 metre-long and 50-metre-wide crack in the ground in Chiang Klang district's Ban Kok village prompted local officials to evacuate 152 residents to temporary shelters in the Phu Wae National Park. In neighbouring Chiang Mai, the Mae Rim River had overflowed and inundated 70 houses. The weather bureau has warned of heavy rains over the next few days.

NEPAL - Heavy rain that has flooded western Nepal villages and left thousands homeless is not expected to relent for at least three weeks. Flooding in the southwest and landslides in the mountainous northwest have already killed at least 39 people and several more are reported missing.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - The Rural Fire Service is preparing for a "worse than normal" fire season in NSW with experts warning that the chance of extreme fire danger days is set to double over the summer and there will be above average temperatures on these days. The official fire danger period will come into force a month early on September 1. Recent wet conditions along the coast had ironically had a huge impact on the state's ability to prepare for the season, preventing about 70% of the planned controlled burns.

NETHERLANDS - A heatwave in the Netherlands in July caused about 1000 more deaths than a normal July. The statistics office said an average of 2730 people died each week in July – the HOTTEST MONTH SINCE DUTCH RECORDS STARTED IN 1706 – compared to a normal figure of about 2500. Average temperatures in July were 6.6C above the long-term average. As temperatures fell in the first week of August, the number of deaths decreased. Each increase in the average temperature of 1C resulted in an estimated extra 22 deaths of women and nine deaths of men a week.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/29 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 TANIMBAR IS.INDONESIA REG
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

CHINA - A moderate earthquake measuring 4.7 on the Richter Scale jolted Yanjin and Daguan in southwest China's Yunnan Province, injuring at least 16 people and destroying thousands of houses. The quake, which lasted for 5 seconds, took place at 9 a.m. and was followed by other tremors which have destroyed some buildings in an elementary school in Yanjin County.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Displaced residents have begun to trek back to their homes in the past couple of days as Mayon, one of the most active volcanoes in the country, showed signs of quieting down. But alert level 4, the highest alert level for a volcano, has not been lifted by PHIVOLCS. The latest bulletin said a total of 24 volcanic quakes were recorded around the volcano as of 8 a.m. Tuesday. "This means that a hazardous explosive eruption is highly possible." A series of small ash explosions were monitored from Mayon between late Monday afternoon and up to early Tuesday morning. "The series of small ash explosions for the past 24 hours indicated that Mayon is exhibiting a slight increase in activity. More ash explosions are expected in the coming days."

ECUADOR - the seismic activity of the Tungurahua during the past days has been low. Lava flows have been registered at the northwest flank of the volcano and descended through the Cusúa and La Hacienda rifts. The threat of a new eruption remains high and the volcano continues to be thoroughly monitored. The evacuated population continues living in 11 temporary shelters.

INDONESIA - For 3 months, a sea of hot mud has been gushing from the ground in Sidoarjo, East Java, 35 kilometres south of Indonesia's second largest city, Surabaya. The steaming mud pool is growing at an estimated 50,000 cubic metres a day, accompanied by hydrogen sulphide gas, and now reportedly covers more than 25 square kilometres. The flow has not yet been stopped; thousands of people have lost their homes. Mud and gas accumulates when sea sediments are trapped in subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides under another, and can erupt out of volcanic cones or simply from a crack in the ground. But the Sidoarjo mud volcano is RATHER UNUSUAL. It's huge. And reports of the mud eruption suggest that it is a hybrid between typical mud volcanoes and hydrothermal vents. The mud is of an UNUSUALLY high temperature (60 °C) and contains enormously high concentrations of hydrogen sulphide gas. This suggests that some kind of volcanic, hydrothermal activity is going on at the same time. According to many geological experts, the scale of this mud volcano is UNPRECEDENTED — at least on land. In 1945, the Makran earthquake in Pakistan triggered the sudden emergence of three offshore mud volcanoes, and in March 1999 a mud volcano rose out of the water overnight to form Malan Island, 3 kilometres from Pakistan's coast.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 29 nmi WSW of Miami, Florida.
Typhoon IOKE was 527 nmi NNE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Tropical storm Kristy was 473 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, small, but expected to become a hurricane.
Hurricane JOHN was 108 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico, likely to reach CAtegory 4 strength. Even though the official forecast keeps the center just offshore, any small deviation to the right will bring the core of this dangerous hurricane over SW Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto made its U.S. landfall on Tuesday in the upper Florida Keys. Forecasters had expected Ernesto to regain hurricane strength as it neared the densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, but it deteriorated into a weak tropical storm that brought heavy rain to parts of south Florida. After Ernesto emerges back over the Atlantic ocean in about 18 hours or so, it may regain hurricane strength just before hitting the coast of the Carolinas. Projected path up through western Pennsylvania.

Tropical Storm John strengthened into the sixth Pacific hurricane of the season Tuesday just off Mexico's west coast on a track that forecasters said eventually could bring it directly over the Baja peninsula. John had sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane, but was expected to strengthen to a Category 3 storm, with minimum winds of 111 mph within 24 to 36 hours. John was already bringing strong winds and rain to a swath of Pacific coastline stretching from Puerto Escondido north to the resort city of Acapulco, but no major flooding or other problems related to the storm have been reported.

Typhoon Ioke, carrying sustained winds of 183 kph near its centre and gusts of up to 226 kph, is forecast to move to the northwest, putting China, Taiwan or Japan in its path and could hit in about a week. Ioke could also fizzle before reaching land. Typhoons and tropical storms tend to gather strength from the warm waters of the South China Sea, making their ultimate target difficult to predict.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PENNSYLVANIA - Emergency crews in Venango County have spent the day cleaning up busy roadways, after hundreds of residents were evacuated from their homes because of flood waters. Many neighbors in the Borough of Polk watched in disbelief after heavy rain and flooding destroyed much of the area. The water began covering main roadways early Tuesday morning, leaving many vehicles with no place to go. Neighbors say they`ve never seen flooding like this. Most homes in the area received quite a bit of flood damage in their basements, and some also had first-floor damage. A garage was lifted off its base due to the high water. Also, a nearby gas pump in the path of the water was lifted out of the ground.

NEPAL - At least 14 more people are confirmed dead in the spate of flooding and landslides in various districts in the past two days due to incessant rain. While scores are still missing, over 10,000 have been displaced in Bardiya district alone. Five houses were swept away and over 100 houses have been completely damaged in Balyalta village which has been scarred by over 50 landslides. Around 300 head of cattle were also swept away by the landslide. Over 300,000 people of 11 VDCs in the Rajapur Tappu area in the district have also been affected by flooding. In Nawalparasi, over three dozen families have been displaced while around 150 houses in Rampur and Khadauna VDCs are on the verge of collapse due to flooding. Over 3,200 bigha of standing paddy in the district has been inundated.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/28 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 167 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas. There is still some chance that the cyclone could become a hurricane before reaching Florida. Also, after Ernesto re-emerges over the Atlantic it is possible that it could re-strengthen to near hurrican intensity before making a second U.S. landfall near the S. Carolina-N. Carolina coasts.
Tropical storm JOHN was 203 nmi SW of Salina Cruz, Mexico. (likely to become a major hurricane)
Typhoon IOKE was 557 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islans.

SUPER TYPHOON IOKE - The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the STRONGEST CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE IN MORE THAN A DECADE. "We're taking everyone out." Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to cause extensive damage when it hits Wake Island with 155 mph winds on Wednesday. "This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete. It's a good thing it's way out in the water." Ioke is the FIRST STORM ON RECORD TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. Satellite images into the eye of the storm showed it SET AN UNOFFICIAL RECORD FOR THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. Ioke has been a Category 4 storm or higher for about a week already, making it ONE OF THE LONGEST-LASTING STORMS IN WORLD HISTORY. It is currently ranked as the fifth-strongest storm ever seen in the Central Pacific, and it's the first Category 5 storm in the region since Hurricane John in 1994. Ioke was the first tropical storm of any size to form in the central Pacific since 2002. "Had this thing hit the U.S. mainland or the Hawaiian Islands, it would have been a huge mess."

Tropical Storm Ernesto lingered Monday night over Cuba, beating itself up over that island's mountains and raising the unfamiliar possibility that Floridians might catch a break on the tropical weather front. A shadow of its former self after spending a full day and night over land, Ernesto still was expected to strike Tuesday at the Florida Keys and Miami-Dade and Broward counties. But at what intensity? That was the baffling question. Though there were no guarantees, forecasters allowed themselves to believe that Ernesto might reach the state as a very wet but relatively punchless member of the ever-growing society of Florida windstorms. It barely retained tropical-storm status Monday night and was predicted to bring maximum sustained winds of 65 mph to Florida - and that could be a high estimate. "There are absolutely no signs of intensification. It's been over land all day." Nevertheless, a great deal of warm, nourishing water sits between it and Florida, and hurricanes grow stronger over water, weaker over land. Forecasters advised everyone to remain alert. Expected time of arrival in South Florida: early afternoon for the leading edge, late night or early Wednesday for the worst of it, whatever that might turn out to be. Meteorologists said Ernesto - like many storms that arrive from the south - could produce more of a water event in Florida than a wind event. Eight hurricanes have struck or brushed Florida in the past two years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - How do those used to drought every year now battle with a deluge? Over 100 people are now dead around Barmer in floods. Barmer is normally a desert, but in what seems to be a FREAK happening, it's flooded. Floods in the area have brought to forefront all the issues they are familiar with as a nation in such circumstances; administrative delay in response, inadequate relief, and the colossal loss of human life and property. But what can't be stressed enough is the mad irony of a land thirsting for water now devastated in deluge.

NEPAL - Hundreds feared dead in Nepal’s WORST LANDSLIDE IN A DECADE. Fears are mounting that a massive landslide on Saturday night in the western Nepalese district of Achham could have killed up to 500 people. News of the disaster caused by heavy rain was reported only yesterday because of the area’s remoteness and lack of telephones. A survivor from Balyalta village reported that 80 of the village’s 94 homes were swept away in the landslide. “More than 500 residents have simply gone.” “This landslide in Achham district is the worst of the past decade. It is an appalling tragedy. I think it is the result of our greed, of our ways of stripping this mountain region of its natural resources, not realising that in doing so we are bound to suffer consequences like the thing that just happened.” Locals lament that the outsiders who exploit their natural resources never suffer. One bitterly said: “They come, loot and vanish, leaving the local poor and innocent to experience the full wrath of nature.”

Monday, August 28, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/27 -
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.7 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - Satellite images have revealed the volcanic region of the Phlegrean Fields, located in southern Italy near the city of Naples, has entered a new uplift phase. The caldera - a ring-shaped region which includes several volcanoes - has uplifted about 2.8 centimetres from 2005 to 2006. The Phlegrean Fields caldera had its last eruption back in 1538 but has exhibited signs of unrest (bradyseismic activity) in recent years. Its underlying magma system remains active, leading to rapid periods of ground uplift followed by longer-term subsidence. The most recent uplift event occurred between March and August 2000.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DEBBY was 776 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 55 nmi S of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Tropical depression ILEANA was 608 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon IOKE was 745 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Is.

ERNESTO - One person has died after Tropical Storm Ernesto hit Haiti as it moves across the Caribbean. Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it heads towards Cuba and possibly regain hurricane status by the time it reaches Florida on Tuesday. The Cuban authorities have evacuated 300,000 people from eastern provinces. In the US, tourists have been ordered to leave the Florida Keys island chain and Florida's Governor has declared a state of emergency. Ernesto briefly became a hurricane before being downgraded to storm status as it reached southern Haiti.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - At least 93 people were killed and dozens more are missing in massive floods caused by monsoon rains that have swamped the normally drought-prone desert state of Rajasthan. State officials, citing the numbers of people still missing, said the death toll could reach as high as 300. Government officials announced yesterday that 51 bodies had been recovered from Barmer, where vast swathes of land remained under water. Navy divers and army troops had been called in to rescue around 200 people who had taken shelter atop houses, vehicles and sand dunes after the UNUSUALLY heavy rains in the desert region. The army had flown nearly 3500 people by helicopter to higher ground. Around 47,000 animals had also been found dead. Earlier this month, more than ten million people were affected by floods in four states. Western Gujarat state faced the brunt with its diamond-polishing hub of Surat remaining under water for five days.

GERMANY - Lightning injured 25 people, several of them critically, at an air show and a soccer match in western Germany on Sunday. At least 20 people were hurt, 10 of them seriously, when a bolt of lightning hit a crowd at the air show in St Augustin, near Bonn. Two of the victims were in critical condition. Another five people suffered life-threatening burns during a thunderstorm in Gelsenkirchen. Lightning struck the tree under which the group was sheltering during a local league soccer game.

NEW ZEALAND - A suspected tornado hurled a family's steel trampoline 10m on to a neighbour's house in Tauranga on Saturday night. Residents in Papamoa were left wondering if they lived in tornado country after the FREAK winds left the trampoline hanging 2m in the air from the neighbour's roof. "When we came out the wind was still blowing a gale but then it became quite still. It was very strange." Small tornadoes in the North Island happen more often than most people thought. "They are reasonably common. It's not often we get a big one but there are quite a few little ones. It is quite possible it was a small tornado."

MALDIVES - Some houses in Laamu atoll Maamendhoo Island have been damaged because of heavy rains that have caused flooding throughout the island. Heavy rain on Thursday caused the water level to rise to one and a half feet. Some 15 houses in the center of the island were completely flooded because the ground level at the middle of the island is lower.

NORTH DAKOTA - DEVILS LAKE - Hundreds of families displaced. Traumatized children. Landowners losing everything and sickened from the stress. It sounds like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, but these symptoms are appearing in North Dakota. A popular lake often used for recreation is rising ominously and spreading, drowning homes and lucrative fields of crops. Devils Lake, west of Grand Forks in the north-central part of the state, has risen about 26 feet since 1993. If it keeps rising, and the area's "wet cycle" continues, as some meteorologists predict, the lake could rise an additional 11 feet by 2012. "With Katrina or Rita, the storm came and left. In this case, the flood comes and stays. It's never over." 75,000 arces are already underwater. Much of the rest of the state, however, is in a record drought.

SUDAN - In recent weeks, rising waters have swept away homes and businesses, reportedly killing several people along the Nile River in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. Those who live and work near the Nile have done their best to shore up the river banks with dark red sand and go about their lives as normal. In fifty years of fishing the Nile waters, some have never seen flooding this bad. 'The current is so strong it tangles my net. I don't get fish. I get trees, thorns, branches and mud.' Hundreds of fishermen are facing the same dilemma. The river has risen to within metres of busy Nile street and passengers in cars and buses gape at billboards and trees, which barely poke above the water. Outbreaks of water-borne diseases like cholera have emerged as a real threat.

Sunday, August 27, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/26 -
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.7 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

CHINA - The moderate 5.1 earthquake in southwest China jolted Yunnan on Friday noon, shaking buildings in Yanjin, Daguan, Yiliang and Suijiang counties. "Many houses collapsed, and water, electricity, communication, and transport facilities have been damaged." It killed one person and injured 31. The quake toppled 1,541 houses in Yunnan province. By 8 a.m. Saturday morning, 45,520 people had been relocated. Of the 31 people injured, 10 are in a serious condition.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Lava flows were seen all over Mayon's summit, creating a larger pathway for hot and boiling pyroclastic flow including powerful avalanche of rock falls suggesting an impending major eruption. "During an aerial investigation around Mayon, we noted that the whole summit was covered with thick lava flow. The deposit of lava flow has reached three to four kilometres all over the summit of Mayon. It is a very dangerous sign. This could push faster the movement of lava flow, which is now at 6.8 kilometre at the southeast side of Mayon's summit. This will also attract pyroclastic flows in the event of a major eruption which is still expected to come."
The Albay provincial government is getting millions from the sand and boulders of Mayon Volcano. The sand and boulders deposited at the different river channels are of high quality. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology estimates there are 53.459 million cubic meters of volcanic debris that were deposited at the slopes of Mayon Volcano during the 2000 and 2001 eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DEBBY was 788 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane (almost) ERNESTO was 97 nmi SW of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Tropical depression ILEANA was 564 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 899 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Tropical Storm Ernesto gathered strength as it steamed through the central Caribbean toward Jamaica on Saturday and threatened to enter the Gulf of Mexico as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season. Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issued hurricane watches as the storm's winds grew to near 60 mph late Saturday.
**As of 5am EST the latest recon data indicated that Ernesto is likely undergoing rapid intensification. The new forecast track takes her over the Florida peninsula.
Meanwhile, former Tropical Storm Debby, now a depression with maximum winds of 30 mph, was expected to stay over the open Atlantic, posing only a threat to ships.

CHINA - Officials in southeastern China are trying to resettle more than 15 million people left homeless after the four devastating typhoons hit the coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
RUSSIA - A woman was killed and 14 people hurt in a hailstorm and downpour in southern Russia. The hailstorm hit the Stavropol Territory, near the North Caucasus, Thursday night, with hail reaching 2 cm (0.78 inches) in diameter. Electricity transmission lines were damaged, killing a 39-year-old woman, and 14 people have asked for medical help. Roofs and windows were damaged in 1,675 houses.

INDIA - Moderate to heavy rain lashed many parts of north India for the third consecutive day on Saturday, causing mercury to dip by a few degrees. Heavy rains lashed Shimla (36 mm) during the day and the residents experienced a cold day as the mercury dropped to 19.8 degrees celsius. Una in HP was the wettest town receiving a heavy rainfall at 71 mm. The weather forecast for the region is that moderate to rather heavy rain or thunder showers are likely to occur at many places in HP and at a few places in Punjab and Haryana over the next two days.

THAILAND - Over 550 villagers were evacuated by helicopters after heavy rains caused a landslide in a village in the northern province of Nan Saturday morning. About 360 villagers were evacuated form Nam Phi Village in Tambon Thung Chang of Thung Chang district after landslide destroyed three houses. Later, helicopters flew in to evacuate 192 more villagers from Ban Nam Phao Village.

NEPAL - A landslide in a mountainous western Nepal village killed at least 10 people and injured three others on Saturday.

NORWAY - skeptical meteorologists needed convincing that a tornado had been seen in a field in Østfold County on Thursday afternoon. Tornadoes are EXCEEDINGLY RARE in Norway and the meteorologist on duty at Storm Weather Center need convincing after checking that conditions in Østfold did not seem to be conducive to the phenomenon. But a woman forwarded a picture taken with her mobile phone, and it was no longer in doubt. "I noticed a strange cloud with a kind of gray clump under it. Suddenly the 'clump' began to move and then formed a point. I was so shocked that it was a minor miracle that I managed to take a picture with my mobile phone." Tornadoes are rarely powerful in Norway and as a rule just last for a few minutes. Another person managed to photograph the formation of twin tornadoes while walking in Ustedalsfjorden near Geilo on July 23.

Friday, August 25, 2006 -

QUAKES -
5.1 Quake this morning in China - Two person were confirmed dead and one injured.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/24 -
5.0 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 BANDA SEA
6.1 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.5 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS

NEW ZEALAND - Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane are set to be wiped out in a massive overdue earthquake, say geologists. The shocking prediction has been made at a Natural Hazards Management Conference in Christchurch. Geology experts have predicted that an alpine fault earthquake is overdue, and would result in the East Cape ripping away from New Zealand, destroying the plateau that Rotorua is based on and taking Taupo and Whakatane with it. They say the earthquake will strike "out of the blue" and cause widespread death, shut down power generators, create tsunamis within New Zealand and overwhelm emergency services.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - After over a month of calm, Bulusan volcano in Sorsogon province, central Philippines emitted smoke on Thursday morning. Phivolcs had lowered the warning status at Mount Bulusan to alert level 1, the lowest in its monitoring system, about a month ago. In nearby Albay province, restive Mount Mayon continued to exhibit volcanic activity that showed it was headed for an explosive eruption in the coming days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 05 (Ernesto) was 184 nmi NNE of Caracas, Venezuela (heading for the Gulf of Mexico if it holds together).
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1147 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane ILEANA was 390 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 941 nmi W of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression 13W was 137 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.

ERNESTO - A tropical wave presently affecting the southern Windward Islands has developed into a tropical cyclone. Earlier Thursday, Barbados reported sustained winds of 37 miles per hour (mph) with wind gusts as high as 51 mph. Tobago had wind gusts to 36 mph. St Lucia reported sustained winds peaking at 33 mph with wind gusts to 43 mph. That afternoon the centre of the cyclone dissipated and reformed between St Vincent and Grenada. Intensity models are indicating that this will develop into a category one hurricane within three days and a category two by early next week.

Tropical Storm Debby is still forecast to stay out in the Atlantic Ocean.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ETHIOPIA - Floods in western Ethiopia's Gambella region killed two people and displaced more than 6,000 when the Baro River burst its banks on Wednesday, and residents were being resettled in safe areas to protect them from more potential flooding. "This river used to fill by the end of August and beginning of September, but this time the river started to overflow before the expected time. It started to fill from mid-June. It is now becoming a threat even to Gambella town." Heavy rainfall since the end of July has caused most big rivers in Ethiopia to swell and weather forecasts indicate more rains, which could lead to more flooding.

BRITAIN - FREAK flooding was THE WORST IN 50 YEARS. The great mop-up went into action at the weekend after torrential rain flooded Great Yarmouth and Caister who appeared to have been the heaviest hit with homes and businesses inundated with flash floods, some livelihoods put at risk and families being forced to move into B&Bs. Floods destroyed the ground floor of a pub - the fourth time it has flooded in the space of a week. The flooding was the result of exceptionally heavy storms. Initial investigations suggest that the sewage system became overwhelmed by this UNPRECEDENTED rainfall. “We are getting more and more FREAK weather like flash flooding and the drains simply can't take that amount of water. I have been in properties affected by flooding and it's devastating - it really is a horrendous situation to be in."

MIDWESTERN U.S. -
INDIANA - severe thunderstorm swept in from Lake Michigan late Wednesday with high winds and large hail, moving docks, scattering lumber across railroad tracks and leaving thousands of homes and businesses without power. "It was intense. I've never seen anything like it."
MINNESOTA - A line of thunderstorms moved through the state Thursday morning, dropping large hail on several cities in the southern metro area. In New Prague, dented vehicles were common in the city of about 4,600 about 30 miles south of Minneapolis. Hail the size of golf balls was reported shortly before 9 a.m. near Norwood, in the southwestern corner of the metro area. Half an hour later pea-sized hail was reported in Chanhassen. Thursday evening tornadoes pummeled southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Hail the size of softballs and grapefruit fell, damaging hundreds of cars, trees and roofs. "It looks like a war zone." The storms were the result of a "one-two punch" - first a warm front moving through and then a cold front.
WISCONSIN - Strong storms overnight knocked down a barn, toppled a gas pump and dumped golfball-sized hail in parts of Wisconsin. A brief tornado touched down in Sauk County, but no damage was associated with it.

ARIZONA - A rain-driven flash flood swept through the outskirts of Phoenix Thursday, trapping the occupants of two cars perched on the edge of a swollen wash.

Thursday, August 24, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/23 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS
5.6 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 NEW IRELAND
5.3 MOZAMBIQUE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1245 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.
Hurricane ILEANA was 299 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 826 nmi W of Honolulu, HI.

Debby, the fourth tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, weakened a little on Wednesday as it moved over slightly cooler waters and posed no threat to land. Debby had maximum sustained winds near 75km/h, down from 85km/h six hours earlier, and was about 980km west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands by 5pm. It was moving west-northwest near 32km/h. Little change in strength was forecast over the next 24 hours. The storm system was then expected to move over warmer waters, the fuel it needs to gain power, as it headed in the general direction of Bermuda. Debby could become the season's first hurricane by Sunday, when its top winds were projected to reach 119km/h, the threshold for hurricane status. The most likely long-range track takes the storm well to the east of Bermuda.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
SOUTH AFRICA - The Southern Cape has again been hit by flooding. The Great Brak River near Mossel Bay has broken its banks in several places following heavy overnight rain. The weather office has warned of more rain in the next 24 hours. Cold and wet conditions are also expected over the western high ground of the Eastern Cape. This follows the major floods in the Southern and Eastern Cape almost a month ago which caused a number of deaths and extensive damage. Early indications are that flood damage in Nelson Mandela Bay could total as much as R120 million.

MUD -
INDONESIA - Thousands of people on the Indonesian island of Java have been forced from their homes by tonnes of hot mud and gas. The sludge, which has been spewing out of the ground for more than two months, is the result of a crack in a gas drilling project near Indonesia's second city, Surabaya. Despite attempts by government officials and the company involved, so far nothing has managed to contain the flow. The mud now covers around 20 square kilometres. Climb up a bank of earth at the outskirts of Shiring village and you see it - a lake of mud stretching for kilometre after kilometre. A white plume of gas marks the spot where it all started; a crack in the earth spewing out steaming sludge. "The mud came up to our chest, we didn't have time to save anything from the house, we just ran to save our lives." The government is anxious to keep the sludge away from any other residential areas and is putting its faith into a series of dams meant to contain the growing lake. Trucks carrying mounds of earth to build these new barriers rumble up and down the main highway every couple of minutes, but the dams have not always proved effective. Earlier this month, a barrier around the village of Shiring burst, causing a second wave of refugees. The rainy season is due to begin in two months time, and plans to build a stronger, concrete barrier to cope with it have not convinced many of the experts brought in to find a solution. Heavy rainfall, they say, could break through the barrier in a matter of hours. Pressure from environmentalists has so far prevented them from using the river to divert tonnes of sludge into the Java Sea. (photos)

Wednesday, August 23, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/22 -
5.1 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 BANDA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - After a brief lull, Mt. Mayon in Albay has resumed exhibiting high abnormal conditions, blowing its top six times over a 24-hour period since Monday night. Volcanic earthquakes indicating magma ascending to the crater were detected 24 times. Tremors from the on-rushing lava registered a RECORD-HIGH 431 times. Mayon rested for about two days. But with the resurgence of its high-level unrest, volcanologists said it is too early to tell whether the country’s most active volcano is set for a bigger explosion or simmering down. "It is in fact dangerous to declare this early that Mayon is already simmering down because its eruption history tells us the opposite." Although the sulfur dioxide emission dropped to 2,445 tons yesterday from 5,390 tons Monday, the rate of lava extrusion and volume of rock falls had increased anew.

ECUADOR - More than a million Ecuadorians have been affected by the eruption of the Tungurahua Volcano last Thursday. Tungurahua threw ash and burning rock into the stratosphere, affecting over one million people, almost 454,000 in Tungurahua and 403,632 in Chimborazo. At least five people died and three more went missing. The latter were also presumed dead. The eruption has destroyed more than 40,000 hectares of crops in Chimborazo alone. In addition, 50,000 poultry were also killed in the disaster. On Monday the volcanic activity was calming. But an increasing warp on the north face of the mountain showed that it was continuing to accumulate lava. It could lead to an even larger explosion than Thursday's eruption. Tungurahua has not erupted or shown signs of seismic activity since Thursday, and the crater was showing signs of deflation.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1380 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical depression HECTOR was 1106 nmi E of Honolulu, HI.
Hurricane IOKE was 757 nmi WSW of Honolulu, HI.
Hurricane ILEANA was 324 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Debby, a tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic, strengthened into the fourth tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane season. Debby had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 kph) and was about 300 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. It was moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 kph) and some more strengthening was forecast during the next 24 hours. The hurricane center said earlier that top winds could hit 74 mph (119 kph), the threshold for hurricane status, in four days. The most likely long-range track had the storm moving over the open Atlantic Ocean for the next five days in the direction of Bermuda, a British territory 560 miles off the coast of North Carolina. On that track it would not threaten the oil-producing U.S. Gulf coast or the Southeastern U.S. states. The period from mid-August to late October is usually the busiest.

Intense hurricane Ioke struck Johnston Atoll as a category 2 hurricane at about 03:00 GMT today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
UKRAINE - A Russian airliner that crashed in eastern Ukraine yesterday killing all 170 passengers and crew on board was probably struck by lightning as it encountered heavy turbulence, a preliminary investigation suggested last night. The Tu-154 was flying from the Black Sea resort of Anapa to St Petersburg when it went down in open countryside about 30 miles north of the city of Donetsk. More than a quarter of the aircraft's passengers were children. Aviation experts said the aircraft could survive a lightning strike, but flight instruments may have been knocked out, disorienting the pilot. "So far this crash is a mystery because the Tupolev is robust and every aircraft has a weather radar. The big question is: how the hell did the pilot get in the middle of a thunderstorm?"

ALASKA - So far this month, Anchorage has received 4.23 inches of rainfall. But in a typical August, Anchorage usually sees just 2.93 inches for the entire month. Over the past week, rain has poured into cracks on city streets causing potholes to pop up around town. All the creeks and streams in Anchorage are running very high - but most are able to handle the high water runoff. Campbell Creek is officially half a foot above flood stage, something hydrologists say is a RARE occurrence.

TONGA - A FREAK tornado struck three vessels linked together, in a search and rescue mission in Ha'apai last Friday that nearly ended in tragedy for 35 crewmen on board. The ship "Nai'a" was on a whale-watching trip to Ha'apai when they first got caught up in a storm while anchored at Luanamo Island, Ha'apai, on August 10. "The weather was not anything that the weather forecast predicted." The wind swelled to 15 knots and swung them right around onto a reef, where the "Nai'a" stayed stuck until August 17. A government boat the "MV Hifofua" went over with a barge to rescue the "Nai'a". After several attempts they finally managed to pull the "Nai'a" up and off the reef and began towing the boat, with both vessels chained to the barge that had gone in close to the reef to enable the rescue. After surviving seven days on the reef, the captain said that they thought everything was all over and done with, and they did not expect to get hit by another FREAK storm with 40-50 knots wind, "that came out of nowhere," early on Friday morning August 18. The barge was taking on so much water that it began to sink pulling "Nai'a" with it.They cut off the barge that was chained to both the "Hifofua" and the "Nai'a" so as to save the crew, and the barge sank - but that saved about 30 crew that were onboard both boats and the five on the barge.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/21 -
5.0 NEAR S.CST OF WESTERN HONSHU
5.4 CERAM SEA
5.5 CERAM SEA
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Scientists say that a three-mile-wide bulge at the top of Kilauea could lead to an eruption from the volcano's summit. The bulge is dramatic. They don't have enough information yet to determine what the bulge means, but it could eventually lead to a summit eruption. The bulge has lifted the volcano four-point-three inches since earlier this year. The bulge is caused by magma swelling into a reservoir beneath the surface. As it builds up, the reservoir inflates, causing the ground around it to crack.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04 was 1584 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical storm HECTOR was 1227 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Hurricane IOKE was 702 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm ILEANA was 351 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

CHINA has denied claims accusing it of concealing natural disaster casualties but admitted the existence of some gaps in the announced figures. China is facing the MOST SEVERE NATURAL CATASTROPHE IN SIX YEARS as the typhoon impact through August 15 has claimed the lives of 2006 people and affected 316 million residents, with economic losses mounting to around US $20 million.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CAMBODIA - At least eight people have been killed by heavy floods in Cambodia as the Mekong River burst its banks due to heavy seasonal rains. Some victims were swept away as they tried to find food for their animals and themselves. The floods have damaged roads and destroyed thousands of hectares of rice paddies and other crops.

INDIA - Heavy rains and floods have killed 33 people in the western Indian state of Rajasthan over the last three days. Over 1500 villages and several towns had been cut off by the rising waters, schools and colleges ordered shut in the lake city of Udaipur, and electricity and telephone networks disrupted across the region. The rains were THE HEAVIEST IN MORE THAN TWO DECADES, officials in the desert state said. Floods have killed nearly 400 people in western and southern India in recent weeks, and displaced up to four million people.

SNOW / COLD -
SOUTH AFRICA - Half a metre (20 inches) of snow has fallen again on the mountains of the Eastern Cape and in the gullies and cliffs of the Ben McDhui Mountains in ONE OF THE COUNTRY'S BEST WINTERS IN LIVING MEMORY FOR SNOW. But there is a downside, previous snows from two weeks ago have crystallized and frozen. Fresh snow falling on these frozen snow shelves could become easily dislodged. Off piste skiers and snowboarders are being warned of avalanches and can experience dangerous conditions in the steep gullies.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
GREECE - Hundreds of tourists and residents have been forced to flee onto beaches in northern Greece by a forest fire that raged out of control, say reports. The fire is said to have burned on several fronts on the Halkidiki peninsula, south of Thessaloniki. The fire comes at the hottest time of year and during a prolonged dry spell. The temperature on Monday was about 42C (107F) and the flames were fanned by a seasonal northern wind called the Meltemi. The beach is said to be packed with thousands of people, many preparing to sleep out on sunbeds. (photos)

GREENLAND's glaciers have been shrinking for the past century, according to a Danish study, suggesting that the ice melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming. Using maps from the 19th century and current satellite observations, the scientists were able to conclude that "70 per cent of the glaciers have been shrinking regularly since the end of the 1880s at a rate of around eight metres per year". The biggest reduction was observed between 1964 and 1985. The effect of the rising temperatures in the 1920s and 1930s was "visible dozens of years later, and that of the 1990s will be (visible) in 10 or 20 years." They expect Greenland's glaciers to melt even faster in the future.

Monday, August 21, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/20 -
5.5 SCOTIA SEA
7.1 SCOTIA SEA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 LA RIOJA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA has recorded 186 destructive earthquakes hitting the country in the past 377 years, including 110 quakes that triggered tsunami. The 186 destructive quakes hit different areas in Indonesia from 1629 to 2005, with Sumatra ranking first by recording 45 quakes and 26 tsunami disasters and Maluku ranking second by registering 41 quakes and 33 tsunami disasters. Sumatra was more frequently hit by earthquakes, but Maluku was more severely devastated by the quakes as 80% of the 41 quakes jolting that region were followed by tsunami disasters.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 1305 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm IOKE was 660 nmi SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
HUNGARY - At least two people were killed and 100 injured when a sudden storm hit Hungary's capital, Budapest, as tens of thousands watched a firework display. The two people killed were hit by a falling tree and two others were taken to hospital with life-threatening injuries and two suffered serious injuries. Hundreds panicked when the rainstorm broke and several people had to be rescued after being thrown overboard when two ships collided on the Danube. Torrential rain and winds of up to 100km/h (62mph) tore down trees, smashed cars and windows and ripped tiles off rooftops. Water surged through the city streets close to the river. Witnesses spoke of panic on the bridges spanning the river. "We were in water up to the knees."

ETHIOPIA has rescued thousands marooned by flash floods that have killed nearly 900 people this month, but tens of thousands remain homeless as more rivers spilled over across the nation. Officials fear the death toll could still rise rapidly as bad weather and poor access hamper relief efforts. The floods have hit large areas throughout the Horn of Africa nation, displacing about 48,000 people, according to UN estimates. Ethiopia has warned that more rivers are overflowing, and its major dams are near to rupturing.

INDIA - Sunday saw 51 major state highways closed to traffic in 11 districts as extensive rains caused major damage to arterial roads connecting towns and villages across the state, resulting in collateral damage of hundreds of crores to business and trade, apart from snapping communication between people across the broken road divide. The large-scale damage has prompted them to do a rethink on design aspects of roads. “We get some funds for immediate repair from the calamity relief fund. But extensive rains like this year’s leave no access to habitation. Keeping this in mind, we are putting on the drawing board a plan to design roads in a way that they remain above water, come what may. For example, some 100 odd villages in central and south Gujarat get cut-off as all access routes get submerged. We intend to study hydrological environment of these to design all weather roads." But even as he sounds confident, for the people on the road it seems far-fetched. “The road in front of Karelibaug mental hospital was built only about four months back. And see what has happened of it. It did not survive even a single rainy season.” "It’s a record rainy season for Kutch and has left our vehicles useless outside city.”

BRITAIN - the biggest insurers are threatening to stop cover to thousands of homes in flood-prone parts of the country unless the Government abandons proposals to cut its spending on flood defences. Recent leaks from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs reveal that, this year, the Government will cut £15m from its annual spending on flood defences. These cuts come in spite of warnings that the number of homes estimated to be at risk to flooding has more than doubled in the past four years. Senior insurance industry sources have also warned that any cut in flood defence spending could have an impact across the UK housing industry - and will certainly jeopardise the Government's plans to build thousands of low-cost homes on flood plains across the south east of England. The row follows flash floods in East Sussex last week, which led to raw sewage sweeping through the streets of Eastbourne. It also follows mounting concerns that the Thames Barrier could be breached if sea levels continue to rise.

UNUSUAL WEATHER SEASON -
AUSTRALIA - Winter's sprung a leak, or is it spring? Sydney's cherry blossoms are already dripping with bright pink blooms, the May bush is in bud, and trees are pushing out their new shoots. It could all be the devious work of global warming, or just one of those tricks that unpredictable nature likes to play. Whatever the cause, spring has escaped from its box well ahead of schedule. "Everything is two weeks, if not three weeks, early." The city's flowering plants and trees had been provoked into an early show of colour by winter's spell of warm weather and unusually heavy rain. Sydney in July was 0.8 degrees warmer than average, while August has, so far, been 0.3 degrees hotter. And 140.2 millimetres of rain fell over Observatory Hill in July, compared with the long-term average of just 97.5 millimetres. By Thursday, the 17th, almost as much rain had fallen this month as would be expected in all of August. Spring season officially starts September 1.

Sunday, August 20, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Big quakes this morning -
7.1 SCOTIA SEA -
The powerful earthquake struck Antarctic waters today but its remote location meant the tremor was only likely to have frightened a few penguins, a seismologist says.
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/19 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - MAYON'S ERUPTION TRAITS UNIQUE - For possessing unique eruption characteristics not found in any other volcano around the world, Filipino volcanologists want to christen Mt. Mayon’s eruption episodes as "mayonian." These traits are so unique that only this Philippine volcano has continuously displayed them in most of its 46 eruption episodes since the 15th century. They are running out of available names whenever they are asked to describe Mayon’s abnormal eruption episodes, saying the volcano with the near-perfect cone has its own unique patterns of abnormal behavior.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HECTOR was 1286 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm IOKE was 648 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
VIETNAM - Flooding, landslides and lightning have killed at least 13 people since Friday night in northern Vietnam, bringing the nationwide death toll in a week of torrential rain to 40.

UNITED KINGDOM - Five archaeologists were ripped from terra firma by a FREAK tornado that whipped its way through Lincolnshire Thursday. The archaeologists and archaeology students, working at a sand and gravel pit at Baston, were sheltering from the thunderstorm in a temporary canteen when the building was picked up and tossed 70 feet by the wind. The thunderstorm also left 6,000 homes without power across the region.

PAKISTAN - Widespread flooding hit Pakistan's biggest city, Karachi, on Thursday amid heavy rainfall, and at least five people were electrocuted.

SNOW / COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - New South Wales has suffered its WORST SNOWFALL IN MORE THAN 20 YEARS. Snow coverage in the NSW Alps was LOWER THAN THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED LEVEL in 1982.

FRANCE - An avalanche on Mont Blanc in the French Alps killed two French men and injured four Swiss climbers Saturday.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. ONE ITEM -
POSTED HERE - BACKWARD SUNSPOT - On July 31st, a tiny sunspot was born. It popped up from the sun's interior, floated around a bit, and vanished again in a few hours. On the sun this sort of thing happens all the time and, ordinarily, it wouldn't be worth mentioning. But this sunspot was special: It was magnetically backward. "We've been waiting for this. A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning." Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space. The sunspot was odd for several reasons - First, the sunspot lasted only three hours. Typically, sunspots last days, weeks or even months. Three hours is fleeting in the extreme. Second, the latitude of the spot is suspicious. New-cycle sunspots almost always pop up at mid-latitudes, around 30o N or 30o S. The backward sunspot popped up at 13o S. "That's strange." Even if Cycle 24 has truly begun, "don't expect any great storms right away." Solar cycles last 11 years and take time to build up to fever pitch.

Friday, August 18, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/17 -
5.9 SAKHALIN ISLAND, RUSSIA
5.1 NORTHERN CHILE
6.1 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.1 OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.2 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.4 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - At least 1 person is dead and 60 others are missing after Ecuador's Tungurahua volcano spewed molten rock onto three villages last night. Tungurahua has shown heightened activity for much of the past two months. The latest eruption shot ash and hot gas five miles (eight kilometers) into the air and destroyed the towns of Chilibu, Choglontuz, and Palitagua. "[The villages] no longer exist. Everything is wiped out." Authorities had evacuated hundreds of families in the hours before the eruption, but many people remained behind and were injured by falling rocks or burned by lava and hot vapor. And the threat isn't over yet. Scientists from Ecuador's national geophysics institute warn that even though the mountain has calmed down for the moment, another cycle of activity could begin at any time.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

JAPAN - Typhoon Wukong churned toward Japan's Pacific coast on Thursday with heavy rain and choppy waves, leaving three people, including a middle-aged surfer, dead or missing. Typhoon Wukong was moving slowly towards the southern main island of Kyushu, packing winds of up to 83kph. Separately 20 people, mostly anglers, were temporarily stranded on sandbanks or swept away when rainwater swelled in the Sakawa River 60km west of Tokyo. "The typhoon is moving slowly so it may cause heavy rain as it is likely to stay in the same area. But the typhoon may change its course and pass over the water."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ARIZONA - The rain total is 7.84 inches since the monsoon began June 15. The total makes the 2006 monsoon the SECOND-WETTEST MONSOON TO DATE in Tucson and there's plenty more rain on the way. This season's storms aren't unusual when compared to past years, save for last month's flooding. Heavy mountain runoff from those storms caused massive rockslides in Sabino Canyon Recreation Area that demolished portions of a road and washed out other portions, closing most of the canyon within the Coronado National Forest to the public. At the same time, more than 12 inches of rain fell south of Sierra Vista, causing millions of dollars in damage to roads and recreation areas of the Coronado National Memorial, which abuts the Mexican border. It left much of the area inaccessible and closed indefinitely. "The National Weather Service is calling this flood A THOUSAND-YEAR EVENT."

ETHIOPIA - An estimated 20,000 people are believed to have lost their homes and livestock by the two weeks of flooding eastern and southern Ethiopia. Heavy rains are expected for the next week according to local weather forecasts, as neighbouring Kenya and Sudan also battle with the effects of flash floods.

BELGUIM - More rain has already fallen in the first half of August than in June and July combined. After the RECORD WARMTH in July, the month of August is set to become a record month in terms of rainfall. More than a 100lr of rain per square metre has been recorded on average across the country in the first half of August. Normally, just 75lr of rainfall is recorded in August. In some regions, such as along the eastern coast and the Waasland, more than 200lr have been recorded. Beveren, for example, has recorded 232lr of rain.

UGANDA - A housewife and her two daughters were on Friday crushed to death in their sleep by a landslide that destroyed their home in Soono parish, Bumbo sub-county, Manafwa district. Tonnes of soil rolled down with stones from the slopes of Tasso hill at midnight, within the encroached section of the Mt. Elgon National Park. Four other homes and about six acres of maize were destroyed. The landslide also killed livestock and destroyed beans, coffee and onion gardens. The residents were reluctant to acquire land in the lowland areas for fear of diseases like malaria and were too poor to afford land elsewhere. It was the second landslide in three years in the area, the first having been in 2003.

NEW ZEALAND - Families rushed from their homes Wednesday as several thousand tons of hillside broke loose above an upscale Wellington neighbourhood, burying one building to its second floor level and smashing through windows. There were no reports of any injuries and the seaside street was closed to traffic. The five-storey building on the New Zealand capital's waterfront was threatened by a "substantial subsidence" of soil, after part of the hillside slipped and slammed into the rear of the building. Soil and rock had crashed through the building's windows. Further subsidence was likely from the loosened hillside. Apartments and houses on either side of the landslide and above it were evacuated in the upscale suburb of Oriental Bay. The landslide came after the WETTEST WINTER IN THE REGION SINCE 1972, according to rainfall figures.

VIETNAM - The death toll from floods and landslides in Vietnam has climbed to at least 26, with several children among the victims.

WILDFIRES -
IDAHO - Thousands of lightning strikes across Idaho sparked several new wildfires Wednesday, boosting the state's total of large, major active fires to 15, the most in the country. The situation was compounded by hot temperatures and gusty winds that fanned flames, scorching more than 215 square miles of rangeland and forest statewide. On the eastern Idaho ranges, brushfires were prompting ranchers to prepare for emergency cattle drives to move stock.

Thursday, August 17, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/16 -
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ARABIAN SEA

PAKISTAN - A magnitude 4.4 quake rattled parts of southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, injuring four people and damaging several homes.

OKLAHOMA - For the fifth time in the past two weeks a small earthquake (2.6) struck in southern Oklahoma.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon Volcano’s cone swelled slightly yesterday as fresh magma forced its way to the top, indicating material is building up for an explosive eruption, scientists said. They said instruments detected a slight swelling in the mountain’s upper part and some deformation on the ground as fresh magma started pushing up to the top. There is a high probability of the volcano erupting any time following recent readings.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 691 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 130 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ETHIOPIA - 364 people have died in southern Ethiopia as flooding around the Omo river continues to spread. Thousands of people are stranded in the south and a helicopter and boats are being used in rescue efforts. Food from the government has begun to arrive. At least 800 people are feared dead this month from rivers bursting their banks in several parts of the country. In the far north, thousands of people in Tigray province are battling floods along the Tegere river. The situation in the south is 'getting out of control.' "We are preparing ourselves for up to 1,000 dead bodies from this flood alone." Weather forecasters say heavier than usual rains are expected in the coming weeks across much of Ethiopia.

CAMBODIA - Heavy rain has submerged parts of two major highways in southwestern Cambodia, halting traffic between the capital Phnom Penh and two coastal regions. Nonstop rain over the past three days has left parts of the highway linking Phnom Penh to the southern port city of Sihanoukville submerged under two meters (6.5 feet) of water, said Sun Kheam, a deputy district police chief in the area. Flooding was due in part to a river that burst its banks and spilled onto the highway

INDIA - Gujarat inundated again after heavy rain; 40,000 are evacuated - At least 40,000 people from low-lying areas in Ahmedabad and nearby towns and villages were shifted to safe places following flash floods in the Sabarmati river on Wednesday evening. “We have shifted people from Ahmedabad and about 40 villages as the inflow of water in the river near the Vasna barrage (in the city) is above 200,000 cusecs." “In a span of 20 days, Kheda is facing its fourth heavy floods and the entire district has been literally turned into wetland. Such a situation has never been experienced by this region before.”

SNOW / COLD -
SIBERIA - One Ukrainian national was killed and another injured by an avalanche in southeast Siberia. "On August 14, in the Kosh-Agach district [in the southeast] of the Republic of Altai, a group of 12 Ukrainian tourists was hit by an avalanche near the Levy Maashei glacier, below the Nadezhda mountain pass, killing one Ukrainian and injuring another." A Russian Emergencies Ministry helicopter would be sent to the area to evacuate eight Ukrainian citizens still on the mountain pass.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/15 -
6.1 FIJI REGION
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.7 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.9 BANDA SEA

OHIO - A small earthquake shook the northwest Ohio city of Lima for the second time in about three months, awakening residents but causing no damage early Tuesday. The 2:09 a.m. quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 2.5, was NOT related to the series of tremors that have struck in northeast Ohio's Lake County and under Lake Erie this year. The quake occurred close to this city about 70 miles southwest of Toledo, although authorities were still trying to determine the exact location of the epicenter. "It was very close to the one we had May 11." Residents who called law enforcement authorities reported waking up to a loud boom and then feeling the earth shake. That sequence is typical for an earthquake this size.

JAPAN - The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology is set to launch a five-year research program into the detailed mechanism of a powerful earthquake that is highly likely to hit Tokyo and surrounding areas within the next 30 years. There is a 70 percent chance of an earthquake striking just below the Kanto region and measuring magnitude 7 within 30 years and a 90 percent chance within 50 years. The Kanto region has been jolted by a quake measuring about M7 a few times in the last century, with the latest ones being a quake whose focus was located off Chiba in 1987 (M6.7) and one near the Uraga Channel in 1922 (M6.8). The mechanism of a powerful earthquake beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area has never been studied before because of its complicated geographical structure.

CALIFORNIA - Geologists say a big earthquake is inevitable in Southern California and so is widespread damage, despite the construction of buildings designed to withstand it and built to the latest codes. A computerized simulation of a 7.9 quake showed buildings throughout the region would collapse. The last 7.9 quake in Southern California hit in 1857. Experts say such large temblors happen every 200 to 300 years.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 696 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression SONAMU was 508 nmi E of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 229 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

Typhoon No. 10 (Wukong) is likely to hit Kyushu on Thursday. Warnings are out for heavy rain and high waves in western Japan as the typhoon approaches the area. The typhoon is estimated to bring 200 millimeters of rain to areas along the south coast of Shikoku, Kyushu and Mie Prefecture and 130 to 150 millimeters to the north coast of Shikoku and the southern Kinki region that includes Osaka over a 24-hour period up to 6 a.m. on Thursday.

CHINA - "The strength of typhoons is increasing, the destructiveness of typhoons that have made landfall is greater and the scope in which they are traveling is farther than normal." Global warming is contributing to an unusually harsh typhoon season in China that started around a month early and has left thousands dead or missing. The typhoons have had an UNUSUAL ferocity, frequency and early arrival. The typhoon season in China normally starts around July 27, but this year the first typhoon hit the southern province of Guangdong on May 18. "This is the earliest typhoon to hit Guangdong since 1949. "The typhoons have come earlier this year, they are strong, the area that they hit is wide and the length of time they last is long."

KATRINA - A U.S. federal judge ruled Tuesday that an insurance company's policies do not cover damage from wind-driven water in a decision that could affect hundreds of upcoming cases related to property damage from Hurricane Katrina.

SNOW / COLD -
PAKISTAN - An avalanche hit K2's upper summit slope on Sunday, August 13, killing 4. At least one of the climbers was on the summit when the avalanche struck. This is the second largest single-day tragedy on K2. On August 13, 1995, six climbers disappeared during a storm.In spite of unusually good weather this season, K2 has had only 4 confirmed summits in 2006. Most climbers reported they were forced to abort their summit pushes in fear of constant avalanches and rock falls, triggered by the warm temperatures.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/14 -
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical storm SONAMU was 565 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 402 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - RECORD RAIN - Eleven people were killed and more than 12 went missing following heavy rains since Sunday night. Bhopal received 29 cm of rain in a span of five hours, a RECORD UNHEARD OF IN THE PAST 70 YEARS. Power supply to many areas of the state capital has been snapped. The Meteorological office said more rainfall is expected as a depression in Bay of Bengal is advancing in the north-east direction. In the next 48 hours, Bhopal is likely to get more heavy rains.

Monday, August 14, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/13 -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.4 NEAR COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.2 CRETE, GREECE
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.5 SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
5.7 NEW BRITAIN

Allstate drops Alaska earthquake coverage - Nearly 7,000 Alaskans will lose their earthquake insurance as their policies come up for renewal in the coming months. Allstate Insurance Co. is cutting its optional earthquake coverage nationwide and stopped writing earthquake policies on March 6 throughout the country. "We're trying to manage our exposure to mega-catastrophes."

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon volcano enters 'danger phase' - Searing gas and debris raced down the slope of the Mayon volcano in the Philippines this weekend, a development that showed the volcano has entered a much more threatening cycle, a scientist said. The burst of pyroclastic flow Saturday marked the first time Mayon shot out fast-moving hot gas and rock fragments after weeks of showing signs of a major eruption. “We're not worried much with lava flows because they're slow moving, but pyroclastic flows travel at such high velocity and could destroy almost everything in its path.” Mayon continued to show signs of restiveness Sunday, emitting abnormally high levels of sulfuric dioxide and puffing ash at least six times.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical storm SONAMU was 503 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 517 nmi E of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

CHINA - At least 214 people are now reported to have died as a result of Typhoon Saomai, which struck south-east China last week. The death toll rose from 134 when officials in Fujian province announced 80 more victims, mostly fishermen who chose to remain on their boats during the storm. Saomai made landfall near Zhejiang province's Wenzhou on Thursday, bringing high winds and heavy rain. Dozens of people are missing and some 50,000 houses have been destroyed in the two provinces.

BANGLADESH - A storm in the Bay of Bengal sank seven fishing boats and at least 60 Bangladeshi fishermen were missing. The storm on the 12th also triggered a meter high WATER SURGE, washing away some houses and shops on the island of Saint Martin, about 500km southeast of the capital Dhaka. Some 500 people were stranded at Kuakata beach town, 400km south of Dhaka, after the sea surge damaged road bridges. The Meteorological department said the sea would remain rough for days due to a monsoonal depression, which may cause some rain across the country. Lack of rain over the last two months has hit crops. A storm warning has been issued for the country's sea ports at Chittagong and Mongla, and fishing trawlers have been asked to stay close to coasts.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PHILIPPINES - The death toll from flashfloods and landslides that struck Aurora town, Zamboanga del Sur province early Monday due to heavy rains has risen to six. Almost 40 others were injured. Three buses were affected by the disaster, including one that was swept down a ravine by mud flows. The bus was on its way to Iligan City from Pagadian when the accident happened. The bus was thrown downhill several meters away from the highway, and was covered with mud.

NEW ZEALAND - Christchurch residents flee massive slip - A landslip forced three people to flee a Christchurch home as hundreds of tonnes of rock and rubble stormed into two properties yesterday. There were issues with the security of the whole cliff face and other properties near where the slip occurred, but neighbouring residents were in no immediate danger. The slip was probably the result of recent wet weather. A geological and engineering services director said he had been investigating several slips around Canterbury in the past few weeks caused by the recent bad weather. "There's been a lot of landslips because it's been UNUSUALLY wet around Christchurch, the same as the rest of the country. These are RARE events and they happen for sometimes no particular reason. There's always a risk living by a cliff."

Sunday, August 13, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/12 -
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REG.
5.6 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
8/11 -
5.7 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.6 TAIWAN REGION
5.5 GUERRERO, MEXICO
6.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

MEXICO - A 5.9 earthquake has rocked central Mexico, prompting the evacuation of a number of buildings in the capital. Hundreds of people are said to have run onto the streets of Mexico City as skyscrapers swayed. No injuries have been reported.

OREGON - Quakes rattle experts' attention - Scientists don't know why there's been a wave of activity in the Northwest lately, but they urge people to be prepared. Numerous small earthquakes have rattled the Northwest in recent weeks, including swarms beneath Mount Hood and east-central Washington and, on Aug. 3, a magnitude 3.8 quake just north of Vancouver that shook the entire metro area. Scientists are cautious about signaling concern, much less doom. But they do say: Be prepared. The ground is very much alive, and far bigger quakes have hit here before. Subterranean rumblings are everyday events in the Northwest, with some quake periods busier than others. But the current spate of activity has earned the full attention of scientists who wonder whether there's more to know or a pattern yet undeciphered. In the past six weeks, the network's 250 instruments have detected at least four dozen quakes -- nearly all unfelt -- on shallow faults in the North American Plate beneath Oregon and Washington. The list does not include the numerous earthquakes at Mount St. Helens triggered by its ongoing eruption.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Lava has started flowing from Kilauea Volcano into the Pacific Ocean from a new entry point, building more Big Island land. Video taken on Thursday shows molten rock slithering down cliffs and oozing into the sea, unleashing clouds of steam as the lava hits the ocean.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm 11W was 586 nmi SE of Kagoshima, Japan.

Tropical storm 11W (Wukong) is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 22:00 GMT on August 16. Projected heading then takes it towards South Korea.

INDIA - Andhra Pradesh faces another flood threat, and heavy rains lashed the north coastal areas even as they are recovering from last week's deluge. According to the Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre, the low pressure area centred off the Bay of Bengal could further intensify and develop into a cyclone.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - Authorities in western India warned residents that they could be hit by more floods, even as the waters receded in other areas battered by this year's monsoon. Water was rising fast in the Mahi River of Gujarat state, threatening to flood four districts. Across India, the rains have killed at least 651 people this year, with most drowning in floods, being crushed by landslides or collapsed houses, or by getting electrocuted. Rescue workers recovered nine bodies in Surat, a diamond trading hub in Gujarat that was hit hard by this week's flooding. More than 80 percent of the city, home to about 3 million people, remains flooded. Hundreds of thousands people were staying in relief camps in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, that has witnessed widespread losses in the flooding.

ETHIOPIA - Flooding has killed 261 in Ethiopia as the weather worsens. Five people have drowned and hundreds been displaced in northern Ethiopia since midweek after swollen rivers burst their banks. The flooding in northern Amhara and Tigray regions, which started Wednesday, comes less than a week after flash floods killed 256 in an eastern township of the country.

PHILIPPINES - Flooding has worsened, affecting 58 villages. The deluge, brought about by the heavy rains of typhoons "Inday" and "Juan," affected 8,001 families involving 38,935 people.

HEAT -
BRITAIN - Village left with no water for FIRST TIME IN 300 YEARS - Residents in a tiny hamlet are praying for rain after the hot weather dried up their only running water supply for the first time in 300 years. Fed-up householders in the hamlet of Ryecroft, near Bingley, have been washing in buckets and taking laundry to their friends after being left without running water for three weeks. Villagers had been well-served by an underground spring which had provided free, high-grade water since the early 1700s. But a combination of a dry winter and record-breaking summer heatwave has dried out the spring for the first time in centuries. "When there has been a severe drought in the past there has been a reduction in the water available – but the spring has never run dry...It's strange to be praying for rain in the middle of the summer, usually everyone complains when it rains."

NEW MYSTERY BOOMS -
VIRGINIA - Buildings shook and windows rattled with a series of loud booms heard up and down the northern beaches of the Outer Banks shortly before 11 a.m. Tuesday, August 8. "The only thing we can attribute it to is offshore jets. We called the Air Force, the Navy and the Coast Guard and they couldn't run it down." There was a flurry of calls from the public wanting to know what caused the concussive sounds that felt like an explosion could have gone off somewhere nearby. A military operating area - commonly called an MOA - is located about 25 miles offshore. Jets from the Air Force and Navy conduct practice bombing runs at the range, but none of those aircraft could have been a source. "I promise you, it was nothing we had. If it was a jet, it had to be out over the ocean over the MOA. There was nothing from Nags Head beach west that we were doing that would do anything like that." Pilots are not allowed to break the sound barrier over populated areas. "This is the first time it's happened in I don't know how long." There were no reports of any damage related to the incident.

Friday, August 11, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/10 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA

VOLCANOES -
Using a new seismic analysing method, European researchers are now able to listen to volcanoes sing. Scientists from the University of Catania in Italy recorded low frequency seismic waves - which are usually inaudible to the human ear - and changed them into musical scores. These "scores" can make it possible to predict future volcanic eruptions, the scientists say. The team of scientists took Mount Etna's seismic wave record and placed the record onto blank music bars. The bars were then overlaid with musical notes, so that a digital synthesiser was able to play the score. The scientists used music recognition software to analyse the score for patterns. So far, the team has analysed several hours of music with the software. They say some distinctive patterns have surfaced.

For the first time, scientists have watched magma move through a volcano before it erupts in fountains of ash and lava. Using imaging methods similar to those employed in medical CT scans, researchers tracked the flow of magma in Italy's Mount Etna. The scan, which detected areas rich in gases that produce explosive eruptions, may become a powerful tool for eruption prediction. Seismic stations recorded more than 2,500 earthquakes during an 18-month interval that included one unusually violent eruption in 2002.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression BOPHA was 104 nmi ESE of Hong Kong and 382 nmi SW of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm SAOMAI was 184 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan and 382 nmi NE of Hong Kong.

CHINA - THE MOST POWERFUL STORM IN CHINA IN 50 YEARS, since 1956, when a typhoon slammed into Zheijiang, unleashing a tsunami that killed more than 3,000 people. More than 80 people have been killed as Typhoon Saomai battered coastal regions in south-eastern China. The storm is continuing to batter coastal regions with heavy rain and winds of more than 200km/h (124 mph). More than a million people were evacuated to temporary shelters before its arrival. More than 7,000 houses had been destroyed in the storm. "The wind was so strong that whole windows were slammed into rooms." Saomai has now been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves inland, but the authorities warn that there is still the risk of landslides and flooding.
Typhoon Saomai made landfall near the booming city of Wenzhou, between Hong Kong and Shanghai. It was packing winds of 134mph (216km/h), outpacing forecasts, and may have been fuelled by the remnants of tropical storm Bopha, which was weakening and moving westwards. Ships were reported to have capsized. South China has been battered by eight typhoons and tropical storms during this year’s UNUSUALLY violent typhoon season. Hundreds have been killed by rainstorms, mudslides and floods.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PAKISTAN - Landslides becoming a deadly threat in quake-hit Hazara - Monsoon heavy rains continued in Hazara division, like the other parts of the country, and massive land-sliding in the areas badly disturbed the communication infrastructure. Most of key roads had been blocked and the people are facing great difficulties because of shortage of food and other necessary commodities. Several villages are moving downward due to land-sliding and the people of these villages are in panic, trying to shift to other safe places. They demanded of the government and relief agencies to use heavy machinery to clear the blocked roads as soon possible, so that the food and aid could be moved to the stranded people of the area. Besides the massive land-sliding, heavy rains destroyed crops on a thousand Kanals of land and food scarcity would be emerging in the coming days.

INDIA - Troops stepped up rescue efforts in Surat as India's diamond-cutting city faced being totally swamped by flooding that has hit millions across west and south India. A fleet of helicopters plucking people from rooftops and dropping relief supplies filled the skyline as waters overflowing from the nearby Ukai dam surged into the city of 3.5 million people. Ninety percent of the city was under water. 10 million people were "seriously affected" by floods in the rain-soaked state. More than 5,200 Surat residents had been saved from "imminent death." Floodwaters left millions in the state stranded on the roofs of homes, hotels, police stations and barns. "We don't have any food or drinking water," the university vice chancellor was pleading in his last words from Surat before communications collapsed Wednesday. The national flood-related death toll has risen by nearly 200 in the past eight days to about 575 since the monsoon hit the country in mid-May. Swollen rivers swamped thousands of villages and towns across India's south and west yesterday, forcing 4.5 million from their homes as rescuers struggled to deliver food and water.

KENYA - Flash flood hits drought-stricken district - Four people were confirmed dead on Thursday after flash floods hit Kenya's drought-stricken northern Marsabit district. Hundreds of families had been displaced while at least 600 goats had been swept away. According to the Kenya meteorological department, the flash flood was caused by a southward movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone system, causing the heavy rains that have pounded southern Ethiopia to fall around Marsabit. The system, the department added, had moved back, meaning that more floods were unlikely and the northeastern areas would remain dry and in drought in August.

EL NINO - There is a 50 percent chance a weak El Nino will develop this year, U.S. government weather forecasters said on Thursday, but if the weather abnormality reappears it will be too late to affect the Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said a return of El Nino would bring wetter-than-average weather to portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S., and warmer-than-average temperatures to the West, northern Great Plains and upper Midwest between January and March 2007. El Nino is an abnormal warming of water in the Pacific Ocean every three or so years that can wreak havoc with global weather patterns.

Thursday, August 10, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/9 -
5.6 CENTRAL PERU
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.4 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

GIANT WAVES -
PHILIPPINES - Strong winds and giant waves, boosted by a southwest monsoon, wiped out hundreds of shacks on stilts and left thousands of people homeless in the southern Philippines. The stormy weather was not related to the super typhoon churning towards China's southeast coast on Thursday. An undetermined number of people were missing after giant waves swept four coastal villages out to sea. Many people survived because most of the homes belonged to the Badjao tribe, strong swimmers famed for their skill in diving for pearls. "It's like a thief in the night. Most of the people were caught by surprise as winds and waves ate their homes before dawn."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression BOPHA was 142 nmi ESE of Hong Kong.
Super-typhoon SAOMAI was 88 nmi NE of Taipei, Taiwan.
CHINA - More than half a million people have been evacuated in south-east China as the strongest typhoon so far this year approaches. Typhoon Saomai is due to make landfall later today with winds of more than 200km/h (124 mph). It is due to hit the provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang, which were buffeted by Typhoon Bilis last month, killing more than 600 people. Saomai will be the eighth powerful storm to hit China this year. Typhoons and tropical storms are common in the region between July to October, but this year they have been UNUSUALLY frequent. China's state media said Saomai was expected to be the strongest typhoon to reach its shores since typhoon Rananim in 2004.

Typhoon Maria hits central Japan - Typhoon Maria dumped heavy rains over central Japan on Wednesday despite the fact the storm seemed to be losing strength. The Meteorological Agency has warned of heavy rains, landslides and floods as Maria approached the coast of the Tokai region in central Japan at the speed of 15 km per hour.

Atlantic depression - Once considered a candidate to become Tropical Storm Debby, the system "is not doing too well", meaning it seems to be losing steam. There's been a lot of that this season. At this point last year, nine named storms already had formed, and four grew into hurricanes. So far this year, three named storms have formed, but none have evolved into a hurricane.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
SOMALIA - Flooding - Floods displaced hundreds of people and destroyed at least 5,000 hectares of farmland in Somalia's Middle Shabelle region around Jowhar, the regional capital, when the Shabelle river burst its banks last week. "Some of the villagers were about to harvest [crops] when the river broke its banks." Heavy rainfall in neighbouring Ethiopia has caused the rivers downstream in Somalia to swell, causing the flooding. The Shabelle's water levels were still rising, leading to fears of more flooding.

Wednesday, August 9, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/8 -
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

NETHERLANDS - An earthquake shook the north of the Netherlands early on Tuesday morning. Measuring 3.5 on the Richter Scale, it was equal in strength to the STRONGEST EARTHQUAKE ON RECORD IN THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS, which had occurred five years ago. It was centred on the town of Middelstum which lies in the middle of the gas fields in the province. The earthquake was the LARGEST EVER MEASURED IN GRONINGEN and was felt across the entire province. There have been 10 quakes roughly equivalent to this magnitude since the first earthquake caused by the gas drilling took place in 1986. There have been several dozen smaller shooks during this period too. The earthquakes result from tension in the earth's crust caused by the extraction of gas. The tension increases in correlation to the amount of gas extraction. The first earthquake took place 27 years after drilling began in Groningen in 1959. The last big quake in Groningen occurred in 2003 when the province experienced three within a month.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - LULL IN MAYON ACTIVITY - Officials worried Wednesday that a reduction in gases coming from the restive Mayon Volcano could mean something has blocked the flow inside the crater, raising the chances of an explosive eruption. The number of people moved from 25 villages near Mayon, southeast of Manila in Albay province, to 20 evacuation centers rose to nearly 40,000, with more ready to go quickly in the event of a massive explosion. The number of volcanic earthquakes is still high. (photo)
The full moon's gravitational pull could trigger an eruption - Scientists in the Philippines have warned that today's full moon could spark a major eruption of the Mount Mayon volcano. A full moon coincided with at least three of Mayon's 47 eruptions, including the two most recent ones in 2000 and 2001. The nearest village is now less than 2km from a trail of molten lava streaming down the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BOPHA was 158 nmi SSW of Taipei, Taiwan and 317 nmi E of Hong KoNG.
Tropical storm MARIA was 65 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Typhoon SAOMAI was 152 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

PHILIPPINES - Two children died while three others, including the children’s mother, were hurt after a landslide triggered by tropical storm “Inday” (Bopha) buried their home in Kalinga. Around 17 families, or 128 persons, were affected when the landslide occurred 10 p.m. Monday. Officials said the landslide was triggered by the continuous rain brought about by the storm. Inday slowed down as it began interacting with a new typhoon, “Juan” (international codename Saomai), that entered the Philippine area of responsibility. Inday packed maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center with gusts of up to 100 kph, and was moving west at 7 kph. It was forecast to move closer to 300 km north northeast of Basco this morning. Typhoon Juan, meanwhile, had winds of 130 kph and gusts of up to 160 kph. It was moving west northwest at 22 kph. Juan was predicted to be 750 km east northeast of Basco today. The weather disturbances are expected to enhance the southeast monsoon and bring rains over the western sections of the country.

Tropical storm Maria powered north towards Japan on Tuesday with landfall possible later in the day, while Taiwan was keeping a wary eye on the movements of two other storms, one of them at typhoon strength. High winds and heavy rains were forecast for central and western Japan, around the city of Osaka, with up to 400 mm (16 inches) of rain expected in some areas by noon today. Taiwan, which could be hit by two storms later this week, issued a warning to shipping vessels as Tropical Storm Bopha headed towards the island, threatening to lash the southeastern coast with heavy rains and strong winds as early as today. Forecasters were also tracking the more distant Typhoon Saomai. Saomai was projected to brush the northern part of Taiwan sometime on Thursday or Friday if it remains on its current path. Both Bopha and Saomai were expected to head into China. The Japanese Meteorological Agency official said it was UNUSUAL, but not unheard of, to have three typhoons in the same region at the same time. "Looking at past records, this has happened about once a year and doesn't signify anything in particular."

Tuesday, August 8, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/7 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.8 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.2 BANDA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - OVER 70,000 EVACUATING FROM MAYON VOLCANO AREA - An explosive eruption could happen "possibly within the day" - evacuation of villagers living within the eight-kilometer (five-mile) radius around Mayon Volcano is ongoing. The alert level was raised to 4 amid forecasts of an “imminent” eruption after six explosions were monitored starting at 7:08 a.m. The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council ordered that affected areas should be "no man's land" by noon Monday. At least 74,069 people or 13,870 families from 40 villages in three cities and five municipalities faced evacuation. Earlier on Monday, Mayon blasted 500-meter high ash columns into the air. Materials thrown from the crater could threaten anyone within eight kilometers.

INDONESIA - authorities on Monday lowered the danger status of the simmering Mount Merapi volcano from alert to watch.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BOPHA was 166 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan and 275 nmi SW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm MARIA was 227 nmi SW of Tokyo, Japan.
Typhoon SAOMAI was 388 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Bopha, one of three tropical storms forming in the western Pacific, is gaining strength. Bopha, the ninth tropical storm this year, is expected to make landfall in northern Taiwan tonight or tomorrow morning as a relatively weak category one typhoon.
Tropical storm Saomai was also moving towards Taiwan from the southeast, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 119 kilometres per hour and gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour.
In China, medium to heavy torrential rains are forecast in southern Yunnan Province after Prapiroon was downgraded from tropical storm to low-pressure cell. Thunderstorms, hailstones and gales are forecast in a large area ranging from Northeast and North China to regions between the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers over the next two days. From July 29 to August 6, heavy flooding has affected 1.26 million people, forced the relocation of 115,000 and razed 110,000 rooms in eight cities.

Typhoon Maria, the season's seventh, is nearing the Japanese archipelago and may make landfall this afternoon in western or central Japan. Heavy-rainfall warnings were issued for as much as 00 millimeters (12 inches) of rain in the Kinki and Tokai regions, southwest of Tokyo, and as much as 100 millimeters in the Kanto area, which includes Tokyo, tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN - Hurricane forecasters are watching a large area of showers between Africa and the Leeward Islands for possible development into a tropical storm. "Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development." The storm is moving at 15 to 20 mph and is in the traditional track for development into a tropical cyclone. It should reach the farthest east island