JULY & AUGUST 2006 DISASTERS

Thursday, August 31, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/30 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

TSUNAMI -
RUSSIA - 'Mini-tsunami' - A search operation continues at Dolzhanskaya Spit (Azov Sea Coast), where tourists were washed away by a surge the evening of the 29th. Dolzhanskaya Spit, which is one of the favorite resorts for residents of Krasnodar Territory and Rostov Region, was inundated. According to witnesses, six people were washed away by the surge. Yeisk Search and Rescue Unit of the emergency ministry managed to find five missing tourists at about 02:00 a.m. One is still missing. Dozens of cars with non-official holiday-makers were evacuated from the spit. Eleven people and their cars remained at the spit, as they refused to move away. Ten life-guards and a boat were involved in the rescue operation.

INDONESIA - Thousands of residents of the tiny islands of Tual and Langgur (Maluku province) abandoned their homes the night of the 29th for safer ground after a tsunami alert was issued. The population fled after an earthquake measuring 5.4 on the Richter scale was registered off the coast of the Maluku Islands, eastern Indonesia, forcing the authorities to sound the alarm, which was eventually called off. People found refuge in the villages of Un and Kampung Raja and on Masbait Hill. A local governmental building is now used as a temporary shelter for panicked residents, but the picture of the situation on the two islands remains unclear due to poor communications. It is known though that residents still refuse to go home until they are certain that the tsunami danger is over.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - The sulfur dioxide (S02) emission of the rumbling Mayon Volcano abruptly increased to 9,733 tons on Wednesday from Tuesday's 3,864 tons. Mt. Mayon's normal S02 emission rate is pegged at 500 tons daily. The abrupt increase in the S02 emission rate was due to the degassing of magma after the two series of explosions recorded during the 24-hour observation period on Tuesday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 78 nmi E of Jacksonville, Florida. ERNESTO has about 18 hours over water in which to intensify, but is unlikely to regain hurricane strength.
Typhoon IOKE was 628 nmi N of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Hurricane JOHN was 59 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Hurricane KRISTY was 471 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Super-typhoon Ioke will have set the RECORD FOR MOST TIME SPENT AT CATEGORY 4 OR ABOVE by far by the time all is said and done. It is now starting to approach and affect various islands in the Pacific.

Hurricane John has weakened slightly to a category three storm but is still sustaining winds of 205km/h (125mph). It is moving north-west, parallel to the Mexican coastline, but so far the worst conditions have been at sea. Rain has been falling along parts of the coastline and forecasters warn that heavy downpours of up to 35cm (1ft) could cause "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides". Acapulco has experienced sea surges of up to 10ft (3.5m).
Another storm, Kristy, has meanwhile formed in the Pacific nearby, but is expected to remain at sea.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
NIGER - Torrential rains have left at least 17,000 people homeless in the north and south of Niger, according to authorities who have appealed for urgent assistance. The remote desert town Bilma in Agadez region, 1,500 km northeast of the capital Niamey has been hardest hit. In this town alone, some 3,400 people from 675 families have been driven from their homes or watched them destroyed by flooding. Bilma has received some 63 mm of rain in recent days - EQUIVALENT TO THE TOTAL RAINFALL RECORDED THERE OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. Another 700 people have left their homes in Ingal and Tabelot, also in the northeast region. In the south of Niger, heavy rains have also displaced 2,177 people around the major town Zinder in the southeast, and 2,261 near Madaoua, and 1,372 at Dogon Doutchi, both in the southwest. The government said it has started trying to relocate people to administrative buildings, but warns the majority are still without shelter.
Widespread flooding has also been reported in neighbouring northern Burkina Faso. Reports last week estimated at least 6,000 people there had left their homes. Flooding has also been reported in Liberia and parts of southern Senegal.

THAILAND - Continuous rainfall had led to landslides damaging five homes and 2,000 rai of forest in Nan's Thung Chang and Chalermprakiat districts, prompting officials to evacuate locals to temporary shelters. The discovery of a 700 metre-long and 50-metre-wide crack in the ground in Chiang Klang district's Ban Kok village prompted local officials to evacuate 152 residents to temporary shelters in the Phu Wae National Park. In neighbouring Chiang Mai, the Mae Rim River had overflowed and inundated 70 houses. The weather bureau has warned of heavy rains over the next few days.

NEPAL - Heavy rain that has flooded western Nepal villages and left thousands homeless is not expected to relent for at least three weeks. Flooding in the southwest and landslides in the mountainous northwest have already killed at least 39 people and several more are reported missing.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
AUSTRALIA - The Rural Fire Service is preparing for a "worse than normal" fire season in NSW with experts warning that the chance of extreme fire danger days is set to double over the summer and there will be above average temperatures on these days. The official fire danger period will come into force a month early on September 1. Recent wet conditions along the coast had ironically had a huge impact on the state's ability to prepare for the season, preventing about 70% of the planned controlled burns.

NETHERLANDS - A heatwave in the Netherlands in July caused about 1000 more deaths than a normal July. The statistics office said an average of 2730 people died each week in July – the HOTTEST MONTH SINCE DUTCH RECORDS STARTED IN 1706 – compared to a normal figure of about 2500. Average temperatures in July were 6.6C above the long-term average. As temperatures fell in the first week of August, the number of deaths decreased. Each increase in the average temperature of 1C resulted in an estimated extra 22 deaths of women and nine deaths of men a week.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/29 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 TANIMBAR IS.INDONESIA REG
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

CHINA - A moderate earthquake measuring 4.7 on the Richter Scale jolted Yanjin and Daguan in southwest China's Yunnan Province, injuring at least 16 people and destroying thousands of houses. The quake, which lasted for 5 seconds, took place at 9 a.m. and was followed by other tremors which have destroyed some buildings in an elementary school in Yanjin County.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Displaced residents have begun to trek back to their homes in the past couple of days as Mayon, one of the most active volcanoes in the country, showed signs of quieting down. But alert level 4, the highest alert level for a volcano, has not been lifted by PHIVOLCS. The latest bulletin said a total of 24 volcanic quakes were recorded around the volcano as of 8 a.m. Tuesday. "This means that a hazardous explosive eruption is highly possible." A series of small ash explosions were monitored from Mayon between late Monday afternoon and up to early Tuesday morning. "The series of small ash explosions for the past 24 hours indicated that Mayon is exhibiting a slight increase in activity. More ash explosions are expected in the coming days."

ECUADOR - the seismic activity of the Tungurahua during the past days has been low. Lava flows have been registered at the northwest flank of the volcano and descended through the Cusúa and La Hacienda rifts. The threat of a new eruption remains high and the volcano continues to be thoroughly monitored. The evacuated population continues living in 11 temporary shelters.

INDONESIA - For 3 months, a sea of hot mud has been gushing from the ground in Sidoarjo, East Java, 35 kilometres south of Indonesia's second largest city, Surabaya. The steaming mud pool is growing at an estimated 50,000 cubic metres a day, accompanied by hydrogen sulphide gas, and now reportedly covers more than 25 square kilometres. The flow has not yet been stopped; thousands of people have lost their homes. Mud and gas accumulates when sea sediments are trapped in subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides under another, and can erupt out of volcanic cones or simply from a crack in the ground. But the Sidoarjo mud volcano is RATHER UNUSUAL. It's huge. And reports of the mud eruption suggest that it is a hybrid between typical mud volcanoes and hydrothermal vents. The mud is of an UNUSUALLY high temperature (60 °C) and contains enormously high concentrations of hydrogen sulphide gas. This suggests that some kind of volcanic, hydrothermal activity is going on at the same time. According to many geological experts, the scale of this mud volcano is UNPRECEDENTED — at least on land. In 1945, the Makran earthquake in Pakistan triggered the sudden emergence of three offshore mud volcanoes, and in March 1999 a mud volcano rose out of the water overnight to form Malan Island, 3 kilometres from Pakistan's coast.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 29 nmi WSW of Miami, Florida.
Typhoon IOKE was 527 nmi NNE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.
Tropical storm Kristy was 473 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, small, but expected to become a hurricane.
Hurricane JOHN was 108 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico, likely to reach CAtegory 4 strength. Even though the official forecast keeps the center just offshore, any small deviation to the right will bring the core of this dangerous hurricane over SW Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto made its U.S. landfall on Tuesday in the upper Florida Keys. Forecasters had expected Ernesto to regain hurricane strength as it neared the densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, but it deteriorated into a weak tropical storm that brought heavy rain to parts of south Florida. After Ernesto emerges back over the Atlantic ocean in about 18 hours or so, it may regain hurricane strength just before hitting the coast of the Carolinas. Projected path up through western Pennsylvania.

Tropical Storm John strengthened into the sixth Pacific hurricane of the season Tuesday just off Mexico's west coast on a track that forecasters said eventually could bring it directly over the Baja peninsula. John had sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane, but was expected to strengthen to a Category 3 storm, with minimum winds of 111 mph within 24 to 36 hours. John was already bringing strong winds and rain to a swath of Pacific coastline stretching from Puerto Escondido north to the resort city of Acapulco, but no major flooding or other problems related to the storm have been reported.

Typhoon Ioke, carrying sustained winds of 183 kph near its centre and gusts of up to 226 kph, is forecast to move to the northwest, putting China, Taiwan or Japan in its path and could hit in about a week. Ioke could also fizzle before reaching land. Typhoons and tropical storms tend to gather strength from the warm waters of the South China Sea, making their ultimate target difficult to predict.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PENNSYLVANIA - Emergency crews in Venango County have spent the day cleaning up busy roadways, after hundreds of residents were evacuated from their homes because of flood waters. Many neighbors in the Borough of Polk watched in disbelief after heavy rain and flooding destroyed much of the area. The water began covering main roadways early Tuesday morning, leaving many vehicles with no place to go. Neighbors say they`ve never seen flooding like this. Most homes in the area received quite a bit of flood damage in their basements, and some also had first-floor damage. A garage was lifted off its base due to the high water. Also, a nearby gas pump in the path of the water was lifted out of the ground.

NEPAL - At least 14 more people are confirmed dead in the spate of flooding and landslides in various districts in the past two days due to incessant rain. While scores are still missing, over 10,000 have been displaced in Bardiya district alone. Five houses were swept away and over 100 houses have been completely damaged in Balyalta village which has been scarred by over 50 landslides. Around 300 head of cattle were also swept away by the landslide. Over 300,000 people of 11 VDCs in the Rajapur Tappu area in the district have also been affected by flooding. In Nawalparasi, over three dozen families have been displaced while around 150 houses in Rampur and Khadauna VDCs are on the verge of collapse due to flooding. Over 3,200 bigha of standing paddy in the district has been inundated.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/28 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 167 nmi SSW of Nassau, Bahamas. There is still some chance that the cyclone could become a hurricane before reaching Florida. Also, after Ernesto re-emerges over the Atlantic it is possible that it could re-strengthen to near hurrican intensity before making a second U.S. landfall near the S. Carolina-N. Carolina coasts.
Tropical storm JOHN was 203 nmi SW of Salina Cruz, Mexico. (likely to become a major hurricane)
Typhoon IOKE was 557 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islans.

SUPER TYPHOON IOKE - The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the STRONGEST CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE IN MORE THAN A DECADE. "We're taking everyone out." Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to cause extensive damage when it hits Wake Island with 155 mph winds on Wednesday. "This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete. It's a good thing it's way out in the water." Ioke is the FIRST STORM ON RECORD TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. Satellite images into the eye of the storm showed it SET AN UNOFFICIAL RECORD FOR THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. Ioke has been a Category 4 storm or higher for about a week already, making it ONE OF THE LONGEST-LASTING STORMS IN WORLD HISTORY. It is currently ranked as the fifth-strongest storm ever seen in the Central Pacific, and it's the first Category 5 storm in the region since Hurricane John in 1994. Ioke was the first tropical storm of any size to form in the central Pacific since 2002. "Had this thing hit the U.S. mainland or the Hawaiian Islands, it would have been a huge mess."

Tropical Storm Ernesto lingered Monday night over Cuba, beating itself up over that island's mountains and raising the unfamiliar possibility that Floridians might catch a break on the tropical weather front. A shadow of its former self after spending a full day and night over land, Ernesto still was expected to strike Tuesday at the Florida Keys and Miami-Dade and Broward counties. But at what intensity? That was the baffling question. Though there were no guarantees, forecasters allowed themselves to believe that Ernesto might reach the state as a very wet but relatively punchless member of the ever-growing society of Florida windstorms. It barely retained tropical-storm status Monday night and was predicted to bring maximum sustained winds of 65 mph to Florida - and that could be a high estimate. "There are absolutely no signs of intensification. It's been over land all day." Nevertheless, a great deal of warm, nourishing water sits between it and Florida, and hurricanes grow stronger over water, weaker over land. Forecasters advised everyone to remain alert. Expected time of arrival in South Florida: early afternoon for the leading edge, late night or early Wednesday for the worst of it, whatever that might turn out to be. Meteorologists said Ernesto - like many storms that arrive from the south - could produce more of a water event in Florida than a wind event. Eight hurricanes have struck or brushed Florida in the past two years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - How do those used to drought every year now battle with a deluge? Over 100 people are now dead around Barmer in floods. Barmer is normally a desert, but in what seems to be a FREAK happening, it's flooded. Floods in the area have brought to forefront all the issues they are familiar with as a nation in such circumstances; administrative delay in response, inadequate relief, and the colossal loss of human life and property. But what can't be stressed enough is the mad irony of a land thirsting for water now devastated in deluge.

NEPAL - Hundreds feared dead in Nepal’s WORST LANDSLIDE IN A DECADE. Fears are mounting that a massive landslide on Saturday night in the western Nepalese district of Achham could have killed up to 500 people. News of the disaster caused by heavy rain was reported only yesterday because of the area’s remoteness and lack of telephones. A survivor from Balyalta village reported that 80 of the village’s 94 homes were swept away in the landslide. “More than 500 residents have simply gone.” “This landslide in Achham district is the worst of the past decade. It is an appalling tragedy. I think it is the result of our greed, of our ways of stripping this mountain region of its natural resources, not realising that in doing so we are bound to suffer consequences like the thing that just happened.” Locals lament that the outsiders who exploit their natural resources never suffer. One bitterly said: “They come, loot and vanish, leaving the local poor and innocent to experience the full wrath of nature.”

Monday, August 28, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/27 -
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.7 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - Satellite images have revealed the volcanic region of the Phlegrean Fields, located in southern Italy near the city of Naples, has entered a new uplift phase. The caldera - a ring-shaped region which includes several volcanoes - has uplifted about 2.8 centimetres from 2005 to 2006. The Phlegrean Fields caldera had its last eruption back in 1538 but has exhibited signs of unrest (bradyseismic activity) in recent years. Its underlying magma system remains active, leading to rapid periods of ground uplift followed by longer-term subsidence. The most recent uplift event occurred between March and August 2000.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DEBBY was 776 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm ERNESTO was 55 nmi S of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Tropical depression ILEANA was 608 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon IOKE was 745 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Is.

ERNESTO - One person has died after Tropical Storm Ernesto hit Haiti as it moves across the Caribbean. Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it heads towards Cuba and possibly regain hurricane status by the time it reaches Florida on Tuesday. The Cuban authorities have evacuated 300,000 people from eastern provinces. In the US, tourists have been ordered to leave the Florida Keys island chain and Florida's Governor has declared a state of emergency. Ernesto briefly became a hurricane before being downgraded to storm status as it reached southern Haiti.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - At least 93 people were killed and dozens more are missing in massive floods caused by monsoon rains that have swamped the normally drought-prone desert state of Rajasthan. State officials, citing the numbers of people still missing, said the death toll could reach as high as 300. Government officials announced yesterday that 51 bodies had been recovered from Barmer, where vast swathes of land remained under water. Navy divers and army troops had been called in to rescue around 200 people who had taken shelter atop houses, vehicles and sand dunes after the UNUSUALLY heavy rains in the desert region. The army had flown nearly 3500 people by helicopter to higher ground. Around 47,000 animals had also been found dead. Earlier this month, more than ten million people were affected by floods in four states. Western Gujarat state faced the brunt with its diamond-polishing hub of Surat remaining under water for five days.

GERMANY - Lightning injured 25 people, several of them critically, at an air show and a soccer match in western Germany on Sunday. At least 20 people were hurt, 10 of them seriously, when a bolt of lightning hit a crowd at the air show in St Augustin, near Bonn. Two of the victims were in critical condition. Another five people suffered life-threatening burns during a thunderstorm in Gelsenkirchen. Lightning struck the tree under which the group was sheltering during a local league soccer game.

NEW ZEALAND - A suspected tornado hurled a family's steel trampoline 10m on to a neighbour's house in Tauranga on Saturday night. Residents in Papamoa were left wondering if they lived in tornado country after the FREAK winds left the trampoline hanging 2m in the air from the neighbour's roof. "When we came out the wind was still blowing a gale but then it became quite still. It was very strange." Small tornadoes in the North Island happen more often than most people thought. "They are reasonably common. It's not often we get a big one but there are quite a few little ones. It is quite possible it was a small tornado."

MALDIVES - Some houses in Laamu atoll Maamendhoo Island have been damaged because of heavy rains that have caused flooding throughout the island. Heavy rain on Thursday caused the water level to rise to one and a half feet. Some 15 houses in the center of the island were completely flooded because the ground level at the middle of the island is lower.

NORTH DAKOTA - DEVILS LAKE - Hundreds of families displaced. Traumatized children. Landowners losing everything and sickened from the stress. It sounds like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, but these symptoms are appearing in North Dakota. A popular lake often used for recreation is rising ominously and spreading, drowning homes and lucrative fields of crops. Devils Lake, west of Grand Forks in the north-central part of the state, has risen about 26 feet since 1993. If it keeps rising, and the area's "wet cycle" continues, as some meteorologists predict, the lake could rise an additional 11 feet by 2012. "With Katrina or Rita, the storm came and left. In this case, the flood comes and stays. It's never over." 75,000 arces are already underwater. Much of the rest of the state, however, is in a record drought.

SUDAN - In recent weeks, rising waters have swept away homes and businesses, reportedly killing several people along the Nile River in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. Those who live and work near the Nile have done their best to shore up the river banks with dark red sand and go about their lives as normal. In fifty years of fishing the Nile waters, some have never seen flooding this bad. 'The current is so strong it tangles my net. I don't get fish. I get trees, thorns, branches and mud.' Hundreds of fishermen are facing the same dilemma. The river has risen to within metres of busy Nile street and passengers in cars and buses gape at billboards and trees, which barely poke above the water. Outbreaks of water-borne diseases like cholera have emerged as a real threat.

Sunday, August 27, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/26 -
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.7 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

CHINA - The moderate 5.1 earthquake in southwest China jolted Yunnan on Friday noon, shaking buildings in Yanjin, Daguan, Yiliang and Suijiang counties. "Many houses collapsed, and water, electricity, communication, and transport facilities have been damaged." It killed one person and injured 31. The quake toppled 1,541 houses in Yunnan province. By 8 a.m. Saturday morning, 45,520 people had been relocated. Of the 31 people injured, 10 are in a serious condition.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Lava flows were seen all over Mayon's summit, creating a larger pathway for hot and boiling pyroclastic flow including powerful avalanche of rock falls suggesting an impending major eruption. "During an aerial investigation around Mayon, we noted that the whole summit was covered with thick lava flow. The deposit of lava flow has reached three to four kilometres all over the summit of Mayon. It is a very dangerous sign. This could push faster the movement of lava flow, which is now at 6.8 kilometre at the southeast side of Mayon's summit. This will also attract pyroclastic flows in the event of a major eruption which is still expected to come."
The Albay provincial government is getting millions from the sand and boulders of Mayon Volcano. The sand and boulders deposited at the different river channels are of high quality. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology estimates there are 53.459 million cubic meters of volcanic debris that were deposited at the slopes of Mayon Volcano during the 2000 and 2001 eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DEBBY was 788 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Hurricane (almost) ERNESTO was 97 nmi SW of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Tropical depression ILEANA was 564 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 899 nmi NE of Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

Tropical Storm Ernesto gathered strength as it steamed through the central Caribbean toward Jamaica on Saturday and threatened to enter the Gulf of Mexico as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season. Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issued hurricane watches as the storm's winds grew to near 60 mph late Saturday.
**As of 5am EST the latest recon data indicated that Ernesto is likely undergoing rapid intensification. The new forecast track takes her over the Florida peninsula.
Meanwhile, former Tropical Storm Debby, now a depression with maximum winds of 30 mph, was expected to stay over the open Atlantic, posing only a threat to ships.

CHINA - Officials in southeastern China are trying to resettle more than 15 million people left homeless after the four devastating typhoons hit the coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
RUSSIA - A woman was killed and 14 people hurt in a hailstorm and downpour in southern Russia. The hailstorm hit the Stavropol Territory, near the North Caucasus, Thursday night, with hail reaching 2 cm (0.78 inches) in diameter. Electricity transmission lines were damaged, killing a 39-year-old woman, and 14 people have asked for medical help. Roofs and windows were damaged in 1,675 houses.

INDIA - Moderate to heavy rain lashed many parts of north India for the third consecutive day on Saturday, causing mercury to dip by a few degrees. Heavy rains lashed Shimla (36 mm) during the day and the residents experienced a cold day as the mercury dropped to 19.8 degrees celsius. Una in HP was the wettest town receiving a heavy rainfall at 71 mm. The weather forecast for the region is that moderate to rather heavy rain or thunder showers are likely to occur at many places in HP and at a few places in Punjab and Haryana over the next two days.

THAILAND - Over 550 villagers were evacuated by helicopters after heavy rains caused a landslide in a village in the northern province of Nan Saturday morning. About 360 villagers were evacuated form Nam Phi Village in Tambon Thung Chang of Thung Chang district after landslide destroyed three houses. Later, helicopters flew in to evacuate 192 more villagers from Ban Nam Phao Village.

NEPAL - A landslide in a mountainous western Nepal village killed at least 10 people and injured three others on Saturday.

NORWAY - skeptical meteorologists needed convincing that a tornado had been seen in a field in Østfold County on Thursday afternoon. Tornadoes are EXCEEDINGLY RARE in Norway and the meteorologist on duty at Storm Weather Center need convincing after checking that conditions in Østfold did not seem to be conducive to the phenomenon. But a woman forwarded a picture taken with her mobile phone, and it was no longer in doubt. "I noticed a strange cloud with a kind of gray clump under it. Suddenly the 'clump' began to move and then formed a point. I was so shocked that it was a minor miracle that I managed to take a picture with my mobile phone." Tornadoes are rarely powerful in Norway and as a rule just last for a few minutes. Another person managed to photograph the formation of twin tornadoes while walking in Ustedalsfjorden near Geilo on July 23.

Friday, August 25, 2006 -

QUAKES -
5.1 Quake this morning in China - Two person were confirmed dead and one injured.

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/24 -
5.0 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 BANDA SEA
6.1 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.5 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS

NEW ZEALAND - Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane are set to be wiped out in a massive overdue earthquake, say geologists. The shocking prediction has been made at a Natural Hazards Management Conference in Christchurch. Geology experts have predicted that an alpine fault earthquake is overdue, and would result in the East Cape ripping away from New Zealand, destroying the plateau that Rotorua is based on and taking Taupo and Whakatane with it. They say the earthquake will strike "out of the blue" and cause widespread death, shut down power generators, create tsunamis within New Zealand and overwhelm emergency services.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - After over a month of calm, Bulusan volcano in Sorsogon province, central Philippines emitted smoke on Thursday morning. Phivolcs had lowered the warning status at Mount Bulusan to alert level 1, the lowest in its monitoring system, about a month ago. In nearby Albay province, restive Mount Mayon continued to exhibit volcanic activity that showed it was headed for an explosive eruption in the coming days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 05 (Ernesto) was 184 nmi NNE of Caracas, Venezuela (heading for the Gulf of Mexico if it holds together).
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1147 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Hurricane ILEANA was 390 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 941 nmi W of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression 13W was 137 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.

ERNESTO - A tropical wave presently affecting the southern Windward Islands has developed into a tropical cyclone. Earlier Thursday, Barbados reported sustained winds of 37 miles per hour (mph) with wind gusts as high as 51 mph. Tobago had wind gusts to 36 mph. St Lucia reported sustained winds peaking at 33 mph with wind gusts to 43 mph. That afternoon the centre of the cyclone dissipated and reformed between St Vincent and Grenada. Intensity models are indicating that this will develop into a category one hurricane within three days and a category two by early next week.

Tropical Storm Debby is still forecast to stay out in the Atlantic Ocean.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ETHIOPIA - Floods in western Ethiopia's Gambella region killed two people and displaced more than 6,000 when the Baro River burst its banks on Wednesday, and residents were being resettled in safe areas to protect them from more potential flooding. "This river used to fill by the end of August and beginning of September, but this time the river started to overflow before the expected time. It started to fill from mid-June. It is now becoming a threat even to Gambella town." Heavy rainfall since the end of July has caused most big rivers in Ethiopia to swell and weather forecasts indicate more rains, which could lead to more flooding.

BRITAIN - FREAK flooding was THE WORST IN 50 YEARS. The great mop-up went into action at the weekend after torrential rain flooded Great Yarmouth and Caister who appeared to have been the heaviest hit with homes and businesses inundated with flash floods, some livelihoods put at risk and families being forced to move into B&Bs. Floods destroyed the ground floor of a pub - the fourth time it has flooded in the space of a week. The flooding was the result of exceptionally heavy storms. Initial investigations suggest that the sewage system became overwhelmed by this UNPRECEDENTED rainfall. “We are getting more and more FREAK weather like flash flooding and the drains simply can't take that amount of water. I have been in properties affected by flooding and it's devastating - it really is a horrendous situation to be in."

MIDWESTERN U.S. -
INDIANA - severe thunderstorm swept in from Lake Michigan late Wednesday with high winds and large hail, moving docks, scattering lumber across railroad tracks and leaving thousands of homes and businesses without power. "It was intense. I've never seen anything like it."
MINNESOTA - A line of thunderstorms moved through the state Thursday morning, dropping large hail on several cities in the southern metro area. In New Prague, dented vehicles were common in the city of about 4,600 about 30 miles south of Minneapolis. Hail the size of golf balls was reported shortly before 9 a.m. near Norwood, in the southwestern corner of the metro area. Half an hour later pea-sized hail was reported in Chanhassen. Thursday evening tornadoes pummeled southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Hail the size of softballs and grapefruit fell, damaging hundreds of cars, trees and roofs. "It looks like a war zone." The storms were the result of a "one-two punch" - first a warm front moving through and then a cold front.
WISCONSIN - Strong storms overnight knocked down a barn, toppled a gas pump and dumped golfball-sized hail in parts of Wisconsin. A brief tornado touched down in Sauk County, but no damage was associated with it.

ARIZONA - A rain-driven flash flood swept through the outskirts of Phoenix Thursday, trapping the occupants of two cars perched on the edge of a swollen wash.

Thursday, August 24, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/23 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS
5.6 NEW BRITAIN
5.0 NEW IRELAND
5.3 MOZAMBIQUE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1245 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.
Hurricane ILEANA was 299 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane IOKE was 826 nmi W of Honolulu, HI.

Debby, the fourth tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, weakened a little on Wednesday as it moved over slightly cooler waters and posed no threat to land. Debby had maximum sustained winds near 75km/h, down from 85km/h six hours earlier, and was about 980km west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands by 5pm. It was moving west-northwest near 32km/h. Little change in strength was forecast over the next 24 hours. The storm system was then expected to move over warmer waters, the fuel it needs to gain power, as it headed in the general direction of Bermuda. Debby could become the season's first hurricane by Sunday, when its top winds were projected to reach 119km/h, the threshold for hurricane status. The most likely long-range track takes the storm well to the east of Bermuda.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
SOUTH AFRICA - The Southern Cape has again been hit by flooding. The Great Brak River near Mossel Bay has broken its banks in several places following heavy overnight rain. The weather office has warned of more rain in the next 24 hours. Cold and wet conditions are also expected over the western high ground of the Eastern Cape. This follows the major floods in the Southern and Eastern Cape almost a month ago which caused a number of deaths and extensive damage. Early indications are that flood damage in Nelson Mandela Bay could total as much as R120 million.

MUD -
INDONESIA - Thousands of people on the Indonesian island of Java have been forced from their homes by tonnes of hot mud and gas. The sludge, which has been spewing out of the ground for more than two months, is the result of a crack in a gas drilling project near Indonesia's second city, Surabaya. Despite attempts by government officials and the company involved, so far nothing has managed to contain the flow. The mud now covers around 20 square kilometres. Climb up a bank of earth at the outskirts of Shiring village and you see it - a lake of mud stretching for kilometre after kilometre. A white plume of gas marks the spot where it all started; a crack in the earth spewing out steaming sludge. "The mud came up to our chest, we didn't have time to save anything from the house, we just ran to save our lives." The government is anxious to keep the sludge away from any other residential areas and is putting its faith into a series of dams meant to contain the growing lake. Trucks carrying mounds of earth to build these new barriers rumble up and down the main highway every couple of minutes, but the dams have not always proved effective. Earlier this month, a barrier around the village of Shiring burst, causing a second wave of refugees. The rainy season is due to begin in two months time, and plans to build a stronger, concrete barrier to cope with it have not convinced many of the experts brought in to find a solution. Heavy rainfall, they say, could break through the barrier in a matter of hours. Pressure from environmentalists has so far prevented them from using the river to divert tonnes of sludge into the Java Sea. (photos)

Wednesday, August 23, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/22 -
5.1 OFF W. CST OF NORTHERN SUMATERA
5.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.1 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 BANDA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - After a brief lull, Mt. Mayon in Albay has resumed exhibiting high abnormal conditions, blowing its top six times over a 24-hour period since Monday night. Volcanic earthquakes indicating magma ascending to the crater were detected 24 times. Tremors from the on-rushing lava registered a RECORD-HIGH 431 times. Mayon rested for about two days. But with the resurgence of its high-level unrest, volcanologists said it is too early to tell whether the country’s most active volcano is set for a bigger explosion or simmering down. "It is in fact dangerous to declare this early that Mayon is already simmering down because its eruption history tells us the opposite." Although the sulfur dioxide emission dropped to 2,445 tons yesterday from 5,390 tons Monday, the rate of lava extrusion and volume of rock falls had increased anew.

ECUADOR - More than a million Ecuadorians have been affected by the eruption of the Tungurahua Volcano last Thursday. Tungurahua threw ash and burning rock into the stratosphere, affecting over one million people, almost 454,000 in Tungurahua and 403,632 in Chimborazo. At least five people died and three more went missing. The latter were also presumed dead. The eruption has destroyed more than 40,000 hectares of crops in Chimborazo alone. In addition, 50,000 poultry were also killed in the disaster. On Monday the volcanic activity was calming. But an increasing warp on the north face of the mountain showed that it was continuing to accumulate lava. It could lead to an even larger explosion than Thursday's eruption. Tungurahua has not erupted or shown signs of seismic activity since Thursday, and the crater was showing signs of deflation.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm DEBBY was 1380 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical depression HECTOR was 1106 nmi E of Honolulu, HI.
Hurricane IOKE was 757 nmi WSW of Honolulu, HI.
Hurricane ILEANA was 324 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Debby, a tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic, strengthened into the fourth tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane season. Debby had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 kph) and was about 300 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. It was moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 kph) and some more strengthening was forecast during the next 24 hours. The hurricane center said earlier that top winds could hit 74 mph (119 kph), the threshold for hurricane status, in four days. The most likely long-range track had the storm moving over the open Atlantic Ocean for the next five days in the direction of Bermuda, a British territory 560 miles off the coast of North Carolina. On that track it would not threaten the oil-producing U.S. Gulf coast or the Southeastern U.S. states. The period from mid-August to late October is usually the busiest.

Intense hurricane Ioke struck Johnston Atoll as a category 2 hurricane at about 03:00 GMT today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
UKRAINE - A Russian airliner that crashed in eastern Ukraine yesterday killing all 170 passengers and crew on board was probably struck by lightning as it encountered heavy turbulence, a preliminary investigation suggested last night. The Tu-154 was flying from the Black Sea resort of Anapa to St Petersburg when it went down in open countryside about 30 miles north of the city of Donetsk. More than a quarter of the aircraft's passengers were children. Aviation experts said the aircraft could survive a lightning strike, but flight instruments may have been knocked out, disorienting the pilot. "So far this crash is a mystery because the Tupolev is robust and every aircraft has a weather radar. The big question is: how the hell did the pilot get in the middle of a thunderstorm?"

ALASKA - So far this month, Anchorage has received 4.23 inches of rainfall. But in a typical August, Anchorage usually sees just 2.93 inches for the entire month. Over the past week, rain has poured into cracks on city streets causing potholes to pop up around town. All the creeks and streams in Anchorage are running very high - but most are able to handle the high water runoff. Campbell Creek is officially half a foot above flood stage, something hydrologists say is a RARE occurrence.

TONGA - A FREAK tornado struck three vessels linked together, in a search and rescue mission in Ha'apai last Friday that nearly ended in tragedy for 35 crewmen on board. The ship "Nai'a" was on a whale-watching trip to Ha'apai when they first got caught up in a storm while anchored at Luanamo Island, Ha'apai, on August 10. "The weather was not anything that the weather forecast predicted." The wind swelled to 15 knots and swung them right around onto a reef, where the "Nai'a" stayed stuck until August 17. A government boat the "MV Hifofua" went over with a barge to rescue the "Nai'a". After several attempts they finally managed to pull the "Nai'a" up and off the reef and began towing the boat, with both vessels chained to the barge that had gone in close to the reef to enable the rescue. After surviving seven days on the reef, the captain said that they thought everything was all over and done with, and they did not expect to get hit by another FREAK storm with 40-50 knots wind, "that came out of nowhere," early on Friday morning August 18. The barge was taking on so much water that it began to sink pulling "Nai'a" with it.They cut off the barge that was chained to both the "Hifofua" and the "Nai'a" so as to save the crew, and the barge sank - but that saved about 30 crew that were onboard both boats and the five on the barge.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/21 -
5.0 NEAR S.CST OF WESTERN HONSHU
5.4 CERAM SEA
5.5 CERAM SEA
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Scientists say that a three-mile-wide bulge at the top of Kilauea could lead to an eruption from the volcano's summit. The bulge is dramatic. They don't have enough information yet to determine what the bulge means, but it could eventually lead to a summit eruption. The bulge has lifted the volcano four-point-three inches since earlier this year. The bulge is caused by magma swelling into a reservoir beneath the surface. As it builds up, the reservoir inflates, causing the ground around it to crack.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 04 was 1584 nmi S of Lajes, Azores.
Tropical storm HECTOR was 1227 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Hurricane IOKE was 702 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm ILEANA was 351 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

CHINA has denied claims accusing it of concealing natural disaster casualties but admitted the existence of some gaps in the announced figures. China is facing the MOST SEVERE NATURAL CATASTROPHE IN SIX YEARS as the typhoon impact through August 15 has claimed the lives of 2006 people and affected 316 million residents, with economic losses mounting to around US $20 million.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
CAMBODIA - At least eight people have been killed by heavy floods in Cambodia as the Mekong River burst its banks due to heavy seasonal rains. Some victims were swept away as they tried to find food for their animals and themselves. The floods have damaged roads and destroyed thousands of hectares of rice paddies and other crops.

INDIA - Heavy rains and floods have killed 33 people in the western Indian state of Rajasthan over the last three days. Over 1500 villages and several towns had been cut off by the rising waters, schools and colleges ordered shut in the lake city of Udaipur, and electricity and telephone networks disrupted across the region. The rains were THE HEAVIEST IN MORE THAN TWO DECADES, officials in the desert state said. Floods have killed nearly 400 people in western and southern India in recent weeks, and displaced up to four million people.

SNOW / COLD -
SOUTH AFRICA - Half a metre (20 inches) of snow has fallen again on the mountains of the Eastern Cape and in the gullies and cliffs of the Ben McDhui Mountains in ONE OF THE COUNTRY'S BEST WINTERS IN LIVING MEMORY FOR SNOW. But there is a downside, previous snows from two weeks ago have crystallized and frozen. Fresh snow falling on these frozen snow shelves could become easily dislodged. Off piste skiers and snowboarders are being warned of avalanches and can experience dangerous conditions in the steep gullies.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
GREECE - Hundreds of tourists and residents have been forced to flee onto beaches in northern Greece by a forest fire that raged out of control, say reports. The fire is said to have burned on several fronts on the Halkidiki peninsula, south of Thessaloniki. The fire comes at the hottest time of year and during a prolonged dry spell. The temperature on Monday was about 42C (107F) and the flames were fanned by a seasonal northern wind called the Meltemi. The beach is said to be packed with thousands of people, many preparing to sleep out on sunbeds. (photos)

GREENLAND's glaciers have been shrinking for the past century, according to a Danish study, suggesting that the ice melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming. Using maps from the 19th century and current satellite observations, the scientists were able to conclude that "70 per cent of the glaciers have been shrinking regularly since the end of the 1880s at a rate of around eight metres per year". The biggest reduction was observed between 1964 and 1985. The effect of the rising temperatures in the 1920s and 1930s was "visible dozens of years later, and that of the 1990s will be (visible) in 10 or 20 years." They expect Greenland's glaciers to melt even faster in the future.

Monday, August 21, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/20 -
5.5 SCOTIA SEA
7.1 SCOTIA SEA
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.0 LA RIOJA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA has recorded 186 destructive earthquakes hitting the country in the past 377 years, including 110 quakes that triggered tsunami. The 186 destructive quakes hit different areas in Indonesia from 1629 to 2005, with Sumatra ranking first by recording 45 quakes and 26 tsunami disasters and Maluku ranking second by registering 41 quakes and 33 tsunami disasters. Sumatra was more frequently hit by earthquakes, but Maluku was more severely devastated by the quakes as 80% of the 41 quakes jolting that region were followed by tsunami disasters.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 1305 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm IOKE was 660 nmi SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
HUNGARY - At least two people were killed and 100 injured when a sudden storm hit Hungary's capital, Budapest, as tens of thousands watched a firework display. The two people killed were hit by a falling tree and two others were taken to hospital with life-threatening injuries and two suffered serious injuries. Hundreds panicked when the rainstorm broke and several people had to be rescued after being thrown overboard when two ships collided on the Danube. Torrential rain and winds of up to 100km/h (62mph) tore down trees, smashed cars and windows and ripped tiles off rooftops. Water surged through the city streets close to the river. Witnesses spoke of panic on the bridges spanning the river. "We were in water up to the knees."

ETHIOPIA has rescued thousands marooned by flash floods that have killed nearly 900 people this month, but tens of thousands remain homeless as more rivers spilled over across the nation. Officials fear the death toll could still rise rapidly as bad weather and poor access hamper relief efforts. The floods have hit large areas throughout the Horn of Africa nation, displacing about 48,000 people, according to UN estimates. Ethiopia has warned that more rivers are overflowing, and its major dams are near to rupturing.

INDIA - Sunday saw 51 major state highways closed to traffic in 11 districts as extensive rains caused major damage to arterial roads connecting towns and villages across the state, resulting in collateral damage of hundreds of crores to business and trade, apart from snapping communication between people across the broken road divide. The large-scale damage has prompted them to do a rethink on design aspects of roads. “We get some funds for immediate repair from the calamity relief fund. But extensive rains like this year’s leave no access to habitation. Keeping this in mind, we are putting on the drawing board a plan to design roads in a way that they remain above water, come what may. For example, some 100 odd villages in central and south Gujarat get cut-off as all access routes get submerged. We intend to study hydrological environment of these to design all weather roads." But even as he sounds confident, for the people on the road it seems far-fetched. “The road in front of Karelibaug mental hospital was built only about four months back. And see what has happened of it. It did not survive even a single rainy season.” "It’s a record rainy season for Kutch and has left our vehicles useless outside city.”

BRITAIN - the biggest insurers are threatening to stop cover to thousands of homes in flood-prone parts of the country unless the Government abandons proposals to cut its spending on flood defences. Recent leaks from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs reveal that, this year, the Government will cut £15m from its annual spending on flood defences. These cuts come in spite of warnings that the number of homes estimated to be at risk to flooding has more than doubled in the past four years. Senior insurance industry sources have also warned that any cut in flood defence spending could have an impact across the UK housing industry - and will certainly jeopardise the Government's plans to build thousands of low-cost homes on flood plains across the south east of England. The row follows flash floods in East Sussex last week, which led to raw sewage sweeping through the streets of Eastbourne. It also follows mounting concerns that the Thames Barrier could be breached if sea levels continue to rise.

UNUSUAL WEATHER SEASON -
AUSTRALIA - Winter's sprung a leak, or is it spring? Sydney's cherry blossoms are already dripping with bright pink blooms, the May bush is in bud, and trees are pushing out their new shoots. It could all be the devious work of global warming, or just one of those tricks that unpredictable nature likes to play. Whatever the cause, spring has escaped from its box well ahead of schedule. "Everything is two weeks, if not three weeks, early." The city's flowering plants and trees had been provoked into an early show of colour by winter's spell of warm weather and unusually heavy rain. Sydney in July was 0.8 degrees warmer than average, while August has, so far, been 0.3 degrees hotter. And 140.2 millimetres of rain fell over Observatory Hill in July, compared with the long-term average of just 97.5 millimetres. By Thursday, the 17th, almost as much rain had fallen this month as would be expected in all of August. Spring season officially starts September 1.

Sunday, August 20, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Big quakes this morning -
7.1 SCOTIA SEA -
The powerful earthquake struck Antarctic waters today but its remote location meant the tremor was only likely to have frightened a few penguins, a seismologist says.
5.8 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/19 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - MAYON'S ERUPTION TRAITS UNIQUE - For possessing unique eruption characteristics not found in any other volcano around the world, Filipino volcanologists want to christen Mt. Mayon’s eruption episodes as "mayonian." These traits are so unique that only this Philippine volcano has continuously displayed them in most of its 46 eruption episodes since the 15th century. They are running out of available names whenever they are asked to describe Mayon’s abnormal eruption episodes, saying the volcano with the near-perfect cone has its own unique patterns of abnormal behavior.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane HECTOR was 1286 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm IOKE was 648 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
VIETNAM - Flooding, landslides and lightning have killed at least 13 people since Friday night in northern Vietnam, bringing the nationwide death toll in a week of torrential rain to 40.

UNITED KINGDOM - Five archaeologists were ripped from terra firma by a FREAK tornado that whipped its way through Lincolnshire Thursday. The archaeologists and archaeology students, working at a sand and gravel pit at Baston, were sheltering from the thunderstorm in a temporary canteen when the building was picked up and tossed 70 feet by the wind. The thunderstorm also left 6,000 homes without power across the region.

PAKISTAN - Widespread flooding hit Pakistan's biggest city, Karachi, on Thursday amid heavy rainfall, and at least five people were electrocuted.

SNOW / COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - New South Wales has suffered its WORST SNOWFALL IN MORE THAN 20 YEARS. Snow coverage in the NSW Alps was LOWER THAN THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED LEVEL in 1982.

FRANCE - An avalanche on Mont Blanc in the French Alps killed two French men and injured four Swiss climbers Saturday.

Space Weather / Solar Storms / Meteors - updated Sundays. ONE ITEM -
POSTED HERE - BACKWARD SUNSPOT - On July 31st, a tiny sunspot was born. It popped up from the sun's interior, floated around a bit, and vanished again in a few hours. On the sun this sort of thing happens all the time and, ordinarily, it wouldn't be worth mentioning. But this sunspot was special: It was magnetically backward. "We've been waiting for this. A backward sunspot is a sign that the next solar cycle is beginning." Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space. The sunspot was odd for several reasons - First, the sunspot lasted only three hours. Typically, sunspots last days, weeks or even months. Three hours is fleeting in the extreme. Second, the latitude of the spot is suspicious. New-cycle sunspots almost always pop up at mid-latitudes, around 30o N or 30o S. The backward sunspot popped up at 13o S. "That's strange." Even if Cycle 24 has truly begun, "don't expect any great storms right away." Solar cycles last 11 years and take time to build up to fever pitch.

Friday, August 18, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/17 -
5.9 SAKHALIN ISLAND, RUSSIA
5.1 NORTHERN CHILE
6.1 NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.1 OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.2 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.4 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - At least 1 person is dead and 60 others are missing after Ecuador's Tungurahua volcano spewed molten rock onto three villages last night. Tungurahua has shown heightened activity for much of the past two months. The latest eruption shot ash and hot gas five miles (eight kilometers) into the air and destroyed the towns of Chilibu, Choglontuz, and Palitagua. "[The villages] no longer exist. Everything is wiped out." Authorities had evacuated hundreds of families in the hours before the eruption, but many people remained behind and were injured by falling rocks or burned by lava and hot vapor. And the threat isn't over yet. Scientists from Ecuador's national geophysics institute warn that even though the mountain has calmed down for the moment, another cycle of activity could begin at any time.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

JAPAN - Typhoon Wukong churned toward Japan's Pacific coast on Thursday with heavy rain and choppy waves, leaving three people, including a middle-aged surfer, dead or missing. Typhoon Wukong was moving slowly towards the southern main island of Kyushu, packing winds of up to 83kph. Separately 20 people, mostly anglers, were temporarily stranded on sandbanks or swept away when rainwater swelled in the Sakawa River 60km west of Tokyo. "The typhoon is moving slowly so it may cause heavy rain as it is likely to stay in the same area. But the typhoon may change its course and pass over the water."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ARIZONA - The rain total is 7.84 inches since the monsoon began June 15. The total makes the 2006 monsoon the SECOND-WETTEST MONSOON TO DATE in Tucson and there's plenty more rain on the way. This season's storms aren't unusual when compared to past years, save for last month's flooding. Heavy mountain runoff from those storms caused massive rockslides in Sabino Canyon Recreation Area that demolished portions of a road and washed out other portions, closing most of the canyon within the Coronado National Forest to the public. At the same time, more than 12 inches of rain fell south of Sierra Vista, causing millions of dollars in damage to roads and recreation areas of the Coronado National Memorial, which abuts the Mexican border. It left much of the area inaccessible and closed indefinitely. "The National Weather Service is calling this flood A THOUSAND-YEAR EVENT."

ETHIOPIA - An estimated 20,000 people are believed to have lost their homes and livestock by the two weeks of flooding eastern and southern Ethiopia. Heavy rains are expected for the next week according to local weather forecasts, as neighbouring Kenya and Sudan also battle with the effects of flash floods.

BELGUIM - More rain has already fallen in the first half of August than in June and July combined. After the RECORD WARMTH in July, the month of August is set to become a record month in terms of rainfall. More than a 100lr of rain per square metre has been recorded on average across the country in the first half of August. Normally, just 75lr of rainfall is recorded in August. In some regions, such as along the eastern coast and the Waasland, more than 200lr have been recorded. Beveren, for example, has recorded 232lr of rain.

UGANDA - A housewife and her two daughters were on Friday crushed to death in their sleep by a landslide that destroyed their home in Soono parish, Bumbo sub-county, Manafwa district. Tonnes of soil rolled down with stones from the slopes of Tasso hill at midnight, within the encroached section of the Mt. Elgon National Park. Four other homes and about six acres of maize were destroyed. The landslide also killed livestock and destroyed beans, coffee and onion gardens. The residents were reluctant to acquire land in the lowland areas for fear of diseases like malaria and were too poor to afford land elsewhere. It was the second landslide in three years in the area, the first having been in 2003.

NEW ZEALAND - Families rushed from their homes Wednesday as several thousand tons of hillside broke loose above an upscale Wellington neighbourhood, burying one building to its second floor level and smashing through windows. There were no reports of any injuries and the seaside street was closed to traffic. The five-storey building on the New Zealand capital's waterfront was threatened by a "substantial subsidence" of soil, after part of the hillside slipped and slammed into the rear of the building. Soil and rock had crashed through the building's windows. Further subsidence was likely from the loosened hillside. Apartments and houses on either side of the landslide and above it were evacuated in the upscale suburb of Oriental Bay. The landslide came after the WETTEST WINTER IN THE REGION SINCE 1972, according to rainfall figures.

VIETNAM - The death toll from floods and landslides in Vietnam has climbed to at least 26, with several children among the victims.

WILDFIRES -
IDAHO - Thousands of lightning strikes across Idaho sparked several new wildfires Wednesday, boosting the state's total of large, major active fires to 15, the most in the country. The situation was compounded by hot temperatures and gusty winds that fanned flames, scorching more than 215 square miles of rangeland and forest statewide. On the eastern Idaho ranges, brushfires were prompting ranchers to prepare for emergency cattle drives to move stock.

Thursday, August 17, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/16 -
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ARABIAN SEA

PAKISTAN - A magnitude 4.4 quake rattled parts of southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, injuring four people and damaging several homes.

OKLAHOMA - For the fifth time in the past two weeks a small earthquake (2.6) struck in southern Oklahoma.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon Volcano’s cone swelled slightly yesterday as fresh magma forced its way to the top, indicating material is building up for an explosive eruption, scientists said. They said instruments detected a slight swelling in the mountain’s upper part and some deformation on the ground as fresh magma started pushing up to the top. There is a high probability of the volcano erupting any time following recent readings.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 691 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 130 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ETHIOPIA - 364 people have died in southern Ethiopia as flooding around the Omo river continues to spread. Thousands of people are stranded in the south and a helicopter and boats are being used in rescue efforts. Food from the government has begun to arrive. At least 800 people are feared dead this month from rivers bursting their banks in several parts of the country. In the far north, thousands of people in Tigray province are battling floods along the Tegere river. The situation in the south is 'getting out of control.' "We are preparing ourselves for up to 1,000 dead bodies from this flood alone." Weather forecasters say heavier than usual rains are expected in the coming weeks across much of Ethiopia.

CAMBODIA - Heavy rain has submerged parts of two major highways in southwestern Cambodia, halting traffic between the capital Phnom Penh and two coastal regions. Nonstop rain over the past three days has left parts of the highway linking Phnom Penh to the southern port city of Sihanoukville submerged under two meters (6.5 feet) of water, said Sun Kheam, a deputy district police chief in the area. Flooding was due in part to a river that burst its banks and spilled onto the highway

INDIA - Gujarat inundated again after heavy rain; 40,000 are evacuated - At least 40,000 people from low-lying areas in Ahmedabad and nearby towns and villages were shifted to safe places following flash floods in the Sabarmati river on Wednesday evening. “We have shifted people from Ahmedabad and about 40 villages as the inflow of water in the river near the Vasna barrage (in the city) is above 200,000 cusecs." “In a span of 20 days, Kheda is facing its fourth heavy floods and the entire district has been literally turned into wetland. Such a situation has never been experienced by this region before.”

SNOW / COLD -
SIBERIA - One Ukrainian national was killed and another injured by an avalanche in southeast Siberia. "On August 14, in the Kosh-Agach district [in the southeast] of the Republic of Altai, a group of 12 Ukrainian tourists was hit by an avalanche near the Levy Maashei glacier, below the Nadezhda mountain pass, killing one Ukrainian and injuring another." A Russian Emergencies Ministry helicopter would be sent to the area to evacuate eight Ukrainian citizens still on the mountain pass.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/15 -
6.1 FIJI REGION
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.7 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.9 BANDA SEA

OHIO - A small earthquake shook the northwest Ohio city of Lima for the second time in about three months, awakening residents but causing no damage early Tuesday. The 2:09 a.m. quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 2.5, was NOT related to the series of tremors that have struck in northeast Ohio's Lake County and under Lake Erie this year. The quake occurred close to this city about 70 miles southwest of Toledo, although authorities were still trying to determine the exact location of the epicenter. "It was very close to the one we had May 11." Residents who called law enforcement authorities reported waking up to a loud boom and then feeling the earth shake. That sequence is typical for an earthquake this size.

JAPAN - The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology is set to launch a five-year research program into the detailed mechanism of a powerful earthquake that is highly likely to hit Tokyo and surrounding areas within the next 30 years. There is a 70 percent chance of an earthquake striking just below the Kanto region and measuring magnitude 7 within 30 years and a 90 percent chance within 50 years. The Kanto region has been jolted by a quake measuring about M7 a few times in the last century, with the latest ones being a quake whose focus was located off Chiba in 1987 (M6.7) and one near the Uraga Channel in 1922 (M6.8). The mechanism of a powerful earthquake beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area has never been studied before because of its complicated geographical structure.

CALIFORNIA - Geologists say a big earthquake is inevitable in Southern California and so is widespread damage, despite the construction of buildings designed to withstand it and built to the latest codes. A computerized simulation of a 7.9 quake showed buildings throughout the region would collapse. The last 7.9 quake in Southern California hit in 1857. Experts say such large temblors happen every 200 to 300 years.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm HECTOR was 696 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression SONAMU was 508 nmi E of Kagoshima, Japan.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 229 nmi ESE of Kagoshima, Japan.

Typhoon No. 10 (Wukong) is likely to hit Kyushu on Thursday. Warnings are out for heavy rain and high waves in western Japan as the typhoon approaches the area. The typhoon is estimated to bring 200 millimeters of rain to areas along the south coast of Shikoku, Kyushu and Mie Prefecture and 130 to 150 millimeters to the north coast of Shikoku and the southern Kinki region that includes Osaka over a 24-hour period up to 6 a.m. on Thursday.

CHINA - "The strength of typhoons is increasing, the destructiveness of typhoons that have made landfall is greater and the scope in which they are traveling is farther than normal." Global warming is contributing to an unusually harsh typhoon season in China that started around a month early and has left thousands dead or missing. The typhoons have had an UNUSUAL ferocity, frequency and early arrival. The typhoon season in China normally starts around July 27, but this year the first typhoon hit the southern province of Guangdong on May 18. "This is the earliest typhoon to hit Guangdong since 1949. "The typhoons have come earlier this year, they are strong, the area that they hit is wide and the length of time they last is long."

KATRINA - A U.S. federal judge ruled Tuesday that an insurance company's policies do not cover damage from wind-driven water in a decision that could affect hundreds of upcoming cases related to property damage from Hurricane Katrina.

SNOW / COLD -
PAKISTAN - An avalanche hit K2's upper summit slope on Sunday, August 13, killing 4. At least one of the climbers was on the summit when the avalanche struck. This is the second largest single-day tragedy on K2. On August 13, 1995, six climbers disappeared during a storm.In spite of unusually good weather this season, K2 has had only 4 confirmed summits in 2006. Most climbers reported they were forced to abort their summit pushes in fear of constant avalanches and rock falls, triggered by the warm temperatures.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/14 -
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical storm SONAMU was 565 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 402 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - RECORD RAIN - Eleven people were killed and more than 12 went missing following heavy rains since Sunday night. Bhopal received 29 cm of rain in a span of five hours, a RECORD UNHEARD OF IN THE PAST 70 YEARS. Power supply to many areas of the state capital has been snapped. The Meteorological office said more rainfall is expected as a depression in Bay of Bengal is advancing in the north-east direction. In the next 48 hours, Bhopal is likely to get more heavy rains.

Monday, August 14, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/13 -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.4 NEAR COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.2 CRETE, GREECE
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.5 SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
5.7 NEW BRITAIN

Allstate drops Alaska earthquake coverage - Nearly 7,000 Alaskans will lose their earthquake insurance as their policies come up for renewal in the coming months. Allstate Insurance Co. is cutting its optional earthquake coverage nationwide and stopped writing earthquake policies on March 6 throughout the country. "We're trying to manage our exposure to mega-catastrophes."

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon volcano enters 'danger phase' - Searing gas and debris raced down the slope of the Mayon volcano in the Philippines this weekend, a development that showed the volcano has entered a much more threatening cycle, a scientist said. The burst of pyroclastic flow Saturday marked the first time Mayon shot out fast-moving hot gas and rock fragments after weeks of showing signs of a major eruption. “We're not worried much with lava flows because they're slow moving, but pyroclastic flows travel at such high velocity and could destroy almost everything in its path.” Mayon continued to show signs of restiveness Sunday, emitting abnormally high levels of sulfuric dioxide and puffing ash at least six times.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical storm SONAMU was 503 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm WUKONG was 517 nmi E of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

CHINA - At least 214 people are now reported to have died as a result of Typhoon Saomai, which struck south-east China last week. The death toll rose from 134 when officials in Fujian province announced 80 more victims, mostly fishermen who chose to remain on their boats during the storm. Saomai made landfall near Zhejiang province's Wenzhou on Thursday, bringing high winds and heavy rain. Dozens of people are missing and some 50,000 houses have been destroyed in the two provinces.

BANGLADESH - A storm in the Bay of Bengal sank seven fishing boats and at least 60 Bangladeshi fishermen were missing. The storm on the 12th also triggered a meter high WATER SURGE, washing away some houses and shops on the island of Saint Martin, about 500km southeast of the capital Dhaka. Some 500 people were stranded at Kuakata beach town, 400km south of Dhaka, after the sea surge damaged road bridges. The Meteorological department said the sea would remain rough for days due to a monsoonal depression, which may cause some rain across the country. Lack of rain over the last two months has hit crops. A storm warning has been issued for the country's sea ports at Chittagong and Mongla, and fishing trawlers have been asked to stay close to coasts.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PHILIPPINES - The death toll from flashfloods and landslides that struck Aurora town, Zamboanga del Sur province early Monday due to heavy rains has risen to six. Almost 40 others were injured. Three buses were affected by the disaster, including one that was swept down a ravine by mud flows. The bus was on its way to Iligan City from Pagadian when the accident happened. The bus was thrown downhill several meters away from the highway, and was covered with mud.

NEW ZEALAND - Christchurch residents flee massive slip - A landslip forced three people to flee a Christchurch home as hundreds of tonnes of rock and rubble stormed into two properties yesterday. There were issues with the security of the whole cliff face and other properties near where the slip occurred, but neighbouring residents were in no immediate danger. The slip was probably the result of recent wet weather. A geological and engineering services director said he had been investigating several slips around Canterbury in the past few weeks caused by the recent bad weather. "There's been a lot of landslips because it's been UNUSUALLY wet around Christchurch, the same as the rest of the country. These are RARE events and they happen for sometimes no particular reason. There's always a risk living by a cliff."

Sunday, August 13, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/12 -
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REG.
5.6 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
8/11 -
5.7 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.6 TAIWAN REGION
5.5 GUERRERO, MEXICO
6.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

MEXICO - A 5.9 earthquake has rocked central Mexico, prompting the evacuation of a number of buildings in the capital. Hundreds of people are said to have run onto the streets of Mexico City as skyscrapers swayed. No injuries have been reported.

OREGON - Quakes rattle experts' attention - Scientists don't know why there's been a wave of activity in the Northwest lately, but they urge people to be prepared. Numerous small earthquakes have rattled the Northwest in recent weeks, including swarms beneath Mount Hood and east-central Washington and, on Aug. 3, a magnitude 3.8 quake just north of Vancouver that shook the entire metro area. Scientists are cautious about signaling concern, much less doom. But they do say: Be prepared. The ground is very much alive, and far bigger quakes have hit here before. Subterranean rumblings are everyday events in the Northwest, with some quake periods busier than others. But the current spate of activity has earned the full attention of scientists who wonder whether there's more to know or a pattern yet undeciphered. In the past six weeks, the network's 250 instruments have detected at least four dozen quakes -- nearly all unfelt -- on shallow faults in the North American Plate beneath Oregon and Washington. The list does not include the numerous earthquakes at Mount St. Helens triggered by its ongoing eruption.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Lava has started flowing from Kilauea Volcano into the Pacific Ocean from a new entry point, building more Big Island land. Video taken on Thursday shows molten rock slithering down cliffs and oozing into the sea, unleashing clouds of steam as the lava hits the ocean.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm 11W was 586 nmi SE of Kagoshima, Japan.

Tropical storm 11W (Wukong) is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 22:00 GMT on August 16. Projected heading then takes it towards South Korea.

INDIA - Andhra Pradesh faces another flood threat, and heavy rains lashed the north coastal areas even as they are recovering from last week's deluge. According to the Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre, the low pressure area centred off the Bay of Bengal could further intensify and develop into a cyclone.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - Authorities in western India warned residents that they could be hit by more floods, even as the waters receded in other areas battered by this year's monsoon. Water was rising fast in the Mahi River of Gujarat state, threatening to flood four districts. Across India, the rains have killed at least 651 people this year, with most drowning in floods, being crushed by landslides or collapsed houses, or by getting electrocuted. Rescue workers recovered nine bodies in Surat, a diamond trading hub in Gujarat that was hit hard by this week's flooding. More than 80 percent of the city, home to about 3 million people, remains flooded. Hundreds of thousands people were staying in relief camps in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, that has witnessed widespread losses in the flooding.

ETHIOPIA - Flooding has killed 261 in Ethiopia as the weather worsens. Five people have drowned and hundreds been displaced in northern Ethiopia since midweek after swollen rivers burst their banks. The flooding in northern Amhara and Tigray regions, which started Wednesday, comes less than a week after flash floods killed 256 in an eastern township of the country.

PHILIPPINES - Flooding has worsened, affecting 58 villages. The deluge, brought about by the heavy rains of typhoons "Inday" and "Juan," affected 8,001 families involving 38,935 people.

HEAT -
BRITAIN - Village left with no water for FIRST TIME IN 300 YEARS - Residents in a tiny hamlet are praying for rain after the hot weather dried up their only running water supply for the first time in 300 years. Fed-up householders in the hamlet of Ryecroft, near Bingley, have been washing in buckets and taking laundry to their friends after being left without running water for three weeks. Villagers had been well-served by an underground spring which had provided free, high-grade water since the early 1700s. But a combination of a dry winter and record-breaking summer heatwave has dried out the spring for the first time in centuries. "When there has been a severe drought in the past there has been a reduction in the water available – but the spring has never run dry...It's strange to be praying for rain in the middle of the summer, usually everyone complains when it rains."

NEW MYSTERY BOOMS -
VIRGINIA - Buildings shook and windows rattled with a series of loud booms heard up and down the northern beaches of the Outer Banks shortly before 11 a.m. Tuesday, August 8. "The only thing we can attribute it to is offshore jets. We called the Air Force, the Navy and the Coast Guard and they couldn't run it down." There was a flurry of calls from the public wanting to know what caused the concussive sounds that felt like an explosion could have gone off somewhere nearby. A military operating area - commonly called an MOA - is located about 25 miles offshore. Jets from the Air Force and Navy conduct practice bombing runs at the range, but none of those aircraft could have been a source. "I promise you, it was nothing we had. If it was a jet, it had to be out over the ocean over the MOA. There was nothing from Nags Head beach west that we were doing that would do anything like that." Pilots are not allowed to break the sound barrier over populated areas. "This is the first time it's happened in I don't know how long." There were no reports of any damage related to the incident.

Friday, August 11, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/10 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA

VOLCANOES -
Using a new seismic analysing method, European researchers are now able to listen to volcanoes sing. Scientists from the University of Catania in Italy recorded low frequency seismic waves - which are usually inaudible to the human ear - and changed them into musical scores. These "scores" can make it possible to predict future volcanic eruptions, the scientists say. The team of scientists took Mount Etna's seismic wave record and placed the record onto blank music bars. The bars were then overlaid with musical notes, so that a digital synthesiser was able to play the score. The scientists used music recognition software to analyse the score for patterns. So far, the team has analysed several hours of music with the software. They say some distinctive patterns have surfaced.

For the first time, scientists have watched magma move through a volcano before it erupts in fountains of ash and lava. Using imaging methods similar to those employed in medical CT scans, researchers tracked the flow of magma in Italy's Mount Etna. The scan, which detected areas rich in gases that produce explosive eruptions, may become a powerful tool for eruption prediction. Seismic stations recorded more than 2,500 earthquakes during an 18-month interval that included one unusually violent eruption in 2002.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression BOPHA was 104 nmi ESE of Hong Kong and 382 nmi SW of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm SAOMAI was 184 nmi NW of Taipei, Taiwan and 382 nmi NE of Hong Kong.

CHINA - THE MOST POWERFUL STORM IN CHINA IN 50 YEARS, since 1956, when a typhoon slammed into Zheijiang, unleashing a tsunami that killed more than 3,000 people. More than 80 people have been killed as Typhoon Saomai battered coastal regions in south-eastern China. The storm is continuing to batter coastal regions with heavy rain and winds of more than 200km/h (124 mph). More than a million people were evacuated to temporary shelters before its arrival. More than 7,000 houses had been destroyed in the storm. "The wind was so strong that whole windows were slammed into rooms." Saomai has now been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves inland, but the authorities warn that there is still the risk of landslides and flooding.
Typhoon Saomai made landfall near the booming city of Wenzhou, between Hong Kong and Shanghai. It was packing winds of 134mph (216km/h), outpacing forecasts, and may have been fuelled by the remnants of tropical storm Bopha, which was weakening and moving westwards. Ships were reported to have capsized. South China has been battered by eight typhoons and tropical storms during this year’s UNUSUALLY violent typhoon season. Hundreds have been killed by rainstorms, mudslides and floods.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
PAKISTAN - Landslides becoming a deadly threat in quake-hit Hazara - Monsoon heavy rains continued in Hazara division, like the other parts of the country, and massive land-sliding in the areas badly disturbed the communication infrastructure. Most of key roads had been blocked and the people are facing great difficulties because of shortage of food and other necessary commodities. Several villages are moving downward due to land-sliding and the people of these villages are in panic, trying to shift to other safe places. They demanded of the government and relief agencies to use heavy machinery to clear the blocked roads as soon possible, so that the food and aid could be moved to the stranded people of the area. Besides the massive land-sliding, heavy rains destroyed crops on a thousand Kanals of land and food scarcity would be emerging in the coming days.

INDIA - Troops stepped up rescue efforts in Surat as India's diamond-cutting city faced being totally swamped by flooding that has hit millions across west and south India. A fleet of helicopters plucking people from rooftops and dropping relief supplies filled the skyline as waters overflowing from the nearby Ukai dam surged into the city of 3.5 million people. Ninety percent of the city was under water. 10 million people were "seriously affected" by floods in the rain-soaked state. More than 5,200 Surat residents had been saved from "imminent death." Floodwaters left millions in the state stranded on the roofs of homes, hotels, police stations and barns. "We don't have any food or drinking water," the university vice chancellor was pleading in his last words from Surat before communications collapsed Wednesday. The national flood-related death toll has risen by nearly 200 in the past eight days to about 575 since the monsoon hit the country in mid-May. Swollen rivers swamped thousands of villages and towns across India's south and west yesterday, forcing 4.5 million from their homes as rescuers struggled to deliver food and water.

KENYA - Flash flood hits drought-stricken district - Four people were confirmed dead on Thursday after flash floods hit Kenya's drought-stricken northern Marsabit district. Hundreds of families had been displaced while at least 600 goats had been swept away. According to the Kenya meteorological department, the flash flood was caused by a southward movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone system, causing the heavy rains that have pounded southern Ethiopia to fall around Marsabit. The system, the department added, had moved back, meaning that more floods were unlikely and the northeastern areas would remain dry and in drought in August.

EL NINO - There is a 50 percent chance a weak El Nino will develop this year, U.S. government weather forecasters said on Thursday, but if the weather abnormality reappears it will be too late to affect the Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said a return of El Nino would bring wetter-than-average weather to portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S., and warmer-than-average temperatures to the West, northern Great Plains and upper Midwest between January and March 2007. El Nino is an abnormal warming of water in the Pacific Ocean every three or so years that can wreak havoc with global weather patterns.

Thursday, August 10, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/9 -
5.6 CENTRAL PERU
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.4 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

GIANT WAVES -
PHILIPPINES - Strong winds and giant waves, boosted by a southwest monsoon, wiped out hundreds of shacks on stilts and left thousands of people homeless in the southern Philippines. The stormy weather was not related to the super typhoon churning towards China's southeast coast on Thursday. An undetermined number of people were missing after giant waves swept four coastal villages out to sea. Many people survived because most of the homes belonged to the Badjao tribe, strong swimmers famed for their skill in diving for pearls. "It's like a thief in the night. Most of the people were caught by surprise as winds and waves ate their homes before dawn."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression BOPHA was 142 nmi ESE of Hong Kong.
Super-typhoon SAOMAI was 88 nmi NE of Taipei, Taiwan.
CHINA - More than half a million people have been evacuated in south-east China as the strongest typhoon so far this year approaches. Typhoon Saomai is due to make landfall later today with winds of more than 200km/h (124 mph). It is due to hit the provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang, which were buffeted by Typhoon Bilis last month, killing more than 600 people. Saomai will be the eighth powerful storm to hit China this year. Typhoons and tropical storms are common in the region between July to October, but this year they have been UNUSUALLY frequent. China's state media said Saomai was expected to be the strongest typhoon to reach its shores since typhoon Rananim in 2004.

Typhoon Maria hits central Japan - Typhoon Maria dumped heavy rains over central Japan on Wednesday despite the fact the storm seemed to be losing strength. The Meteorological Agency has warned of heavy rains, landslides and floods as Maria approached the coast of the Tokai region in central Japan at the speed of 15 km per hour.

Atlantic depression - Once considered a candidate to become Tropical Storm Debby, the system "is not doing too well", meaning it seems to be losing steam. There's been a lot of that this season. At this point last year, nine named storms already had formed, and four grew into hurricanes. So far this year, three named storms have formed, but none have evolved into a hurricane.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
SOMALIA - Flooding - Floods displaced hundreds of people and destroyed at least 5,000 hectares of farmland in Somalia's Middle Shabelle region around Jowhar, the regional capital, when the Shabelle river burst its banks last week. "Some of the villagers were about to harvest [crops] when the river broke its banks." Heavy rainfall in neighbouring Ethiopia has caused the rivers downstream in Somalia to swell, causing the flooding. The Shabelle's water levels were still rising, leading to fears of more flooding.

Wednesday, August 9, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/8 -
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

NETHERLANDS - An earthquake shook the north of the Netherlands early on Tuesday morning. Measuring 3.5 on the Richter Scale, it was equal in strength to the STRONGEST EARTHQUAKE ON RECORD IN THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS, which had occurred five years ago. It was centred on the town of Middelstum which lies in the middle of the gas fields in the province. The earthquake was the LARGEST EVER MEASURED IN GRONINGEN and was felt across the entire province. There have been 10 quakes roughly equivalent to this magnitude since the first earthquake caused by the gas drilling took place in 1986. There have been several dozen smaller shooks during this period too. The earthquakes result from tension in the earth's crust caused by the extraction of gas. The tension increases in correlation to the amount of gas extraction. The first earthquake took place 27 years after drilling began in Groningen in 1959. The last big quake in Groningen occurred in 2003 when the province experienced three within a month.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - LULL IN MAYON ACTIVITY - Officials worried Wednesday that a reduction in gases coming from the restive Mayon Volcano could mean something has blocked the flow inside the crater, raising the chances of an explosive eruption. The number of people moved from 25 villages near Mayon, southeast of Manila in Albay province, to 20 evacuation centers rose to nearly 40,000, with more ready to go quickly in the event of a massive explosion. The number of volcanic earthquakes is still high. (photo)
The full moon's gravitational pull could trigger an eruption - Scientists in the Philippines have warned that today's full moon could spark a major eruption of the Mount Mayon volcano. A full moon coincided with at least three of Mayon's 47 eruptions, including the two most recent ones in 2000 and 2001. The nearest village is now less than 2km from a trail of molten lava streaming down the crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BOPHA was 158 nmi SSW of Taipei, Taiwan and 317 nmi E of Hong KoNG.
Tropical storm MARIA was 65 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Typhoon SAOMAI was 152 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

PHILIPPINES - Two children died while three others, including the children’s mother, were hurt after a landslide triggered by tropical storm “Inday” (Bopha) buried their home in Kalinga. Around 17 families, or 128 persons, were affected when the landslide occurred 10 p.m. Monday. Officials said the landslide was triggered by the continuous rain brought about by the storm. Inday slowed down as it began interacting with a new typhoon, “Juan” (international codename Saomai), that entered the Philippine area of responsibility. Inday packed maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center with gusts of up to 100 kph, and was moving west at 7 kph. It was forecast to move closer to 300 km north northeast of Basco this morning. Typhoon Juan, meanwhile, had winds of 130 kph and gusts of up to 160 kph. It was moving west northwest at 22 kph. Juan was predicted to be 750 km east northeast of Basco today. The weather disturbances are expected to enhance the southeast monsoon and bring rains over the western sections of the country.

Tropical storm Maria powered north towards Japan on Tuesday with landfall possible later in the day, while Taiwan was keeping a wary eye on the movements of two other storms, one of them at typhoon strength. High winds and heavy rains were forecast for central and western Japan, around the city of Osaka, with up to 400 mm (16 inches) of rain expected in some areas by noon today. Taiwan, which could be hit by two storms later this week, issued a warning to shipping vessels as Tropical Storm Bopha headed towards the island, threatening to lash the southeastern coast with heavy rains and strong winds as early as today. Forecasters were also tracking the more distant Typhoon Saomai. Saomai was projected to brush the northern part of Taiwan sometime on Thursday or Friday if it remains on its current path. Both Bopha and Saomai were expected to head into China. The Japanese Meteorological Agency official said it was UNUSUAL, but not unheard of, to have three typhoons in the same region at the same time. "Looking at past records, this has happened about once a year and doesn't signify anything in particular."

Tuesday, August 8, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/7 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
6.8 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.2 BANDA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - OVER 70,000 EVACUATING FROM MAYON VOLCANO AREA - An explosive eruption could happen "possibly within the day" - evacuation of villagers living within the eight-kilometer (five-mile) radius around Mayon Volcano is ongoing. The alert level was raised to 4 amid forecasts of an “imminent” eruption after six explosions were monitored starting at 7:08 a.m. The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council ordered that affected areas should be "no man's land" by noon Monday. At least 74,069 people or 13,870 families from 40 villages in three cities and five municipalities faced evacuation. Earlier on Monday, Mayon blasted 500-meter high ash columns into the air. Materials thrown from the crater could threaten anyone within eight kilometers.

INDONESIA - authorities on Monday lowered the danger status of the simmering Mount Merapi volcano from alert to watch.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BOPHA was 166 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan and 275 nmi SW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm MARIA was 227 nmi SW of Tokyo, Japan.
Typhoon SAOMAI was 388 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Bopha, one of three tropical storms forming in the western Pacific, is gaining strength. Bopha, the ninth tropical storm this year, is expected to make landfall in northern Taiwan tonight or tomorrow morning as a relatively weak category one typhoon.
Tropical storm Saomai was also moving towards Taiwan from the southeast, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 119 kilometres per hour and gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour.
In China, medium to heavy torrential rains are forecast in southern Yunnan Province after Prapiroon was downgraded from tropical storm to low-pressure cell. Thunderstorms, hailstones and gales are forecast in a large area ranging from Northeast and North China to regions between the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers over the next two days. From July 29 to August 6, heavy flooding has affected 1.26 million people, forced the relocation of 115,000 and razed 110,000 rooms in eight cities.

Typhoon Maria, the season's seventh, is nearing the Japanese archipelago and may make landfall this afternoon in western or central Japan. Heavy-rainfall warnings were issued for as much as 00 millimeters (12 inches) of rain in the Kinki and Tokai regions, southwest of Tokyo, and as much as 100 millimeters in the Kanto area, which includes Tokyo, tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN - Hurricane forecasters are watching a large area of showers between Africa and the Leeward Islands for possible development into a tropical storm. "Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development." The storm is moving at 15 to 20 mph and is in the traditional track for development into a tropical cyclone. It should reach the farthest east islands in the Caribbean Sea late this week.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
INDIA - INCESSANT MONSOON RAINS, FLOODING - A boat capsized in a rain-swollen river near the Indian capital on Sunday, killing at least six people, as incessant monsoon rains triggered fresh floods across western India, halting rail and road traffic in Mumbai and stranding tens of thousands of people in the region. Heavy rains triggered fresh floods in Maharashtra, disrupting the western state's transport network and forcing the evacuation of thousands of families from marooned villages. Some 13,000 people were evacuated in Nanded district, where floods inundated about 25 villages. In southern Andhra Pradesh state, where heavy rain has wreaked havoc for days, authorities revised the official death toll up to 63 since the deluge which began Thursday. More than 130,000 people who were evacuated from their homes over the past week are still living in relief camps. The reported nationwide death toll from this year's monsoon deluge is at least 382, the actual toll is likely much higher than the one reported. Most drowned in floods, were crushed when poorly built houses collapsed, or were electrocuted when raging waters exposed live wires.

PAKISTAN - FLOODING - Among the 144 flooding casualties were 41 people who died Saturday when a road bridge collapsed in heavy rain in Mardan city, tossing dozens of people into a flooded stream. Rains, flooding and mudslides have left 16,000 homes either destroyed or partially damaged in the North West Frontier province. No deaths were reported on Monday, but more rains and flooding are forecast in the coming days and government officials have been ordered prepare for possible flood situations.

CANADA - TORNADOES - People are reeling as they try to pick up the pieces after tornadoes pounded eastern Manitoba on the weekend, killing a woman, injuring at least 20 others and wrecking homes and farms. The storm on Aug. 5 spawned at least three twisters, including one that took the life of a 64-year-old Winnipeg woman in the resort community of Gull Lake, northeast of the city. Police said that she was walking with her husband when the tornado hit, picking her up and hurling her through the air. The storm wrecked farms and cottages across a wide swath of eastern Manitoba, injuring at least 20 people in the Lac du Bonnet and Pointe du Bois areas. "In Manitoba, we know we get tornadoes...We get so many a year, but we've never had one like this. I think this has been the first death we've seen from a tornado since 1977, so this is unbelievable." Environment Canada is studying the storm, which actually produced at least three tornadoes. The damage track was up to 200 metres wide.

AUSTRALIA - FREAK TORNADO - The hamlet of Australind, about 150km south of Perth, has been declared a disaster area after a freak tornado flattened houses, upended trees and blacked out 1000 homes. With the damage bill expected to run into millions of dollars, Australind was coming to terms with the wind storm that put two people in hospital and destroyed dozens of homes.

Monday, August 7, 2006 -

Second Annual Shameless Self-Promotion - Today is my birthday!

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/6 -
6.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN, REGION
5.4 TAJIKISTAN-XINJIANG BORDER REG

ARGENTINA - A strong 5.7 earthquake hit Argentina early Saturday, causing damage to buildings but no casualties. The quake shattered some windows and left cracks on buildings, causing panic among local residents. Some people were evacuated to shelters offered by the government.

CHINA - A growing number of ultra-high skyscrapers in China could be at risk from earthquakes. Many of the buildings use designs untested in earthquakes. Land is at a premium in China, so despite its concerns, the government is unlikely to impose limits. A number of Chinese cities are racing to build the mainland's tallest skyscraper. Earthquakes are common in China. One of the worst quakes in the last century took place in Tangshan in the north of the country, killing almost 250,000 people.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - 20,000 EVACUATED FROM MAYON VOLCANO AREA - The Philippine authorities have ordered the evacuation of about 20,000 people living near a volcano, saying an eruption could take place soon. The alert was raised to four - the second highest level - following increased activity at Mount Mayon, in the centre of the country. People living in the region watched with alarm early on Monday, as five successive volcanic blasts happened within 40 minutes. By mid-morning, Mayon's peak was covered in a dark cloud of volcanic material rising high above the crater. The army has sent trucks to take villagers living within 8km (five miles) of the crater to evacuation centres. But other areas nearby should also "prepare for evacuation in the event explosive eruptions intensify". Disaster officials say about 50,000 people will have to be evacuated in the event of a major eruption. (photo)
Photos from mid-July.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm BOPHA was 208 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.
Tropical storm MARIA was 323 nmi SSW of Tokyo, Japan.
Typhoon SAOMAI was 486 nmi WNW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Saomai - The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for the Marianas Islands on Saturday in advance of Tropical Storm Saomai as it rumbled rapidly northwest toward Guam. It is the eighth storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. It was forecast to reach typhoon strength sometime Tuesday evening and begin curving west-northwest away from the Marianas in the general direction of Okinawa but it’s too early to tell whether Saomai will threaten the island.

THE MYSTERY OF HURRICANE FORMATION - Although many hurricanes that reach the United States are born as tropical depressions in the waters off Africa, little is known about why some peter out and others become monster hurricanes on the other side of the ocean. This is increasingly important information to have, and so a team of researchers from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will spend the next two months off the African coast trying to find the answer. "These waves are pretty innocuous -- lines of heavy rain with some thunderstorms. But about 10 percent change character as they move to sea and get rotations and start building up power. That's the big mystery: Where does the spin come from?" Some 60 waves every year come off West Africa in the late summer and head toward the Caribbean and North America, carried by trade winds.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
ETHIOPIA - FLOODING - Rescuers have been digging through mud and debris, looking for some 300 people still missing after floods in Ethiopia. Almost 200 people are thought to have died after a river burst its banks and floodwaters swept through the city of Dire Dawa in the east of the country. Hundreds of homes were destroyed when the Dechatu river flooded on Saturday. Floodwaters damaged telephone and electricity lines and cut off the main road to Addis Ababa, further complicating the rescue efforts. The floods also swept away vehicles and livestock, and destroyed markets and shops. Over the past two years flooding has afflicted several areas of eastern and southern Ethiopia, killing hundreds and displacing hundreds of thousands. (photo)

PAKISTAN - FLOODING - The death toll from Monsoon deluge and flooding is up to more than 150 in the last three weeks in Pakistan while flash floods have affected thousands of homes, mostly in northern areas. For the third consecutive day, flash floods and rains claimed 50 more lives. 700 houses were completely collapsed while 2,800 houses were partially damaged as a result of flash floods in various areas of North-West Frontier Province. Landslides and floods triggered by monsoon rains are creating thousands of new refugees in parts of Pakistan that were devastated by last October’s earthquake. More than 6,000 quake survivors have fled dangerous areas and nearly 20,000 more are set to seek refuge in camps.

NEPAL - LANDSLIDE - At least 10 people were killed when landslide struck a remote village in northern Nepal early Thursday morning, near the Tibetan border, with rescue operations hampered by rain and the inaccessibility of the area. About six hours walk away from the nearest town, the only other way the village can be accessed is by helicopter. It took nearly a week for news of the incident to reach the capital. This is the second incident of landslides killing a large number of villagers in less than three weeks. Last month, a landslide in another remote village in Kaski district in western Nepal killed at least 19 villagers.

TEXAS - FLOODING - More than 15 inches of rain - nearly twice the annual average - has fallen in El Paso since July 27. Recovery and cleanup efforts were under way Sunday as this desert city slowly dried out from more than a week of flooding storms. The deluge sent mud and rocks cascading into some parts of the city, destroying as many as 300 homes and causing an estimated $100 million in damage. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers assured residents that an earthen dam that had threatened to burst in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and flood downtown El Paso last week would hold. The flood risk will continue until at least Thursday, when forecasters expect the chance of rain to finally end.

WIND -
CANADA - "Is it just us, or is it a lot windier?" Despite an abundance of anecdotal evidence — including last week's storms in Toronto — to support a resounding `yes,' wind remains the `ignored statistic' in weather study. Winds and other forces of nature account for 70 per cent or more of power outages. We have seen the wind this year hauling down massive tree limbs, crushing cars, killing campers and being widely unpredictable and dangerous. A July 17 wind, which brought down hundreds of kilometres of power lines and felled 1,000 hydro poles across Ontario, inflicted the most damage to Hydro One's system since the ice storm of 1998. In 20 minutes, "perfectly sound limbs were coming off perfectly sound trees," that night in Toronto. "The writing is on the wall." Half the number of "calms" — times when the wind didn't blow at all — were recorded at Pearson Airport in Toronto from 2001 to 2005 than in the early '60s, but it's not clear why. For all the awe that wind inspires and the havoc it brings, wind records are not much studied, which makes it impossible for climatologists to state confidently, that yes, wind patterns are changing. "There is no serious publication that can say wind patterns have changed."

UNUSUAL WEATHER SEASON -
VERMONT - Last summer was the hottest on record in Vermont – and worldwide. In the fall, Vermont had such a late frost that the leaves didn't begin to drop until mid-October, and the weight of an Oct. 25 snowfall caused thousands of trees to topple. "I think everybody noticed a kind of weird winter." The great increase in temperatures occurred in the winter months. In the second week of January, heavy rains melted away the snow. This last year in New Hampshire, sap flowed at the end of December and in early January. "It was flowing before people had their trees tapped. The weather they call sugaring weather is just not reliable anymore." There was a time when 80 percent of the maple syrup produced in the world came from New England and 80 percent of that came from Vermont. These days 80 percent comes from Canada and only 20 percent from New England. This spring and summer have been particularly wet. At the height of planting season at the end of May, corn rotted in rain-drenched fields and farmers had to replant. While some crops recovered from record-heavy rainfall, many did not. And for the second time ever, dairy farmers received emergency funding from the state after the wet weather ruined feed crops. Twenty-three days out of 30 in June had measurable rainfall. Total rainfall for June 2006 compared to June 2005 was almost double in most weather recording locations in Vermont.
"What I would like to see, and would be good for everybody, is just to take a look at their surroundings and just take note." Write down a new plant or bug or bird and mark on a calendar when things bloom, or when the weather changes. If people start doing this, they will notice climate changes that have been talked about. "It's very slow ... methodically slow" but all these little changes "start to add up and connect the dots."

Sunday, August 6, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/5 -
6.1 MENDOZA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
8/4 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 VENEZUELA
5.5 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

INDONESIA - The earthquake which struck south-east Asia on Boxing Day, 2004, changed the Earth's surface and its gravity, according to a new study. Satellites reveal that the 9.1 magnitude quake raised the seafloor in the region by several metres for thousands of square miles. "The earthquake changed the gravity in that part of the world in two ways that we were able to detect." Firstly, the raising of the seafloor changed the geometry of the area and altered previous global positioning satellite (GPS) measurements from the areas. Secondly, the density of the rock beneath the seafloor was changed, and an increase or decrease in density produces a notable gravity change.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon lava trail LONGEST IN 30 YEARS - On its 21st day of “quiet” unrest Friday, Mayon Volcano surpassed the length of the lava trails of all its eruptions during the last three decades. By Friday, the main lava trail along the Mabinit channel in the southeast sector had advanced by 30 meters beyond the six-kilometer permanent danger zone. The lava trail's edge, now within the upper reaches of Mabinit and Bonga villages, already expanded to almost 100 meters wide and 15 meters high. The lava flow is around 1,000 Celsius hot or 10 times the boiling point of water at standard pressure, and now travels one meter per hour. There were 354 tremor episodes recorded which were caused by falling lava blocks on the volcano's slopes. Volcanic earthquakes decreased to 18 although some of these were notably larger in magnitude. Some villages in the southeast and east of Mayon continued to experience “very light” ash falls kicked up by minor collapses in lava deposits.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical depression CHRIS was 99 nmi NNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.(dissipating)
Tropical storm MARIA was 547 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm SAOMAI was 68 nmi NW of Agana, Guam.
CHRIS FIZZLES OUT - Expect two fewer hurricanes this season, expert William Gray said in his updated seasonal forecast. But in addition to Alberto, Beryl and Chris, at least 12 named storms still might be on the way. The long-term average is about 10 named storms and six hurricanes, of which two are intense. The tropical Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures are 1 to 3 degrees cooler than they were at this time last year.

Tropical Storm 08W (SAMOI) is expected to make its closest point of approach to Guam around noon today, passing between Rota and Guam. By that time, the island may be hit by sustained winds of 46 to 52 mph, and wind gusts up to 58 mph. As of 7 p.m. Saturday, the storm was located about 200 miles southeast of Guam and packing sustained winds of about 40 mph. According to the National Weather Service, the storm is intensifying and moving toward the Marianas at 17 mph. It had been drifting around 12 mph earlier.

CHINA - While tens of thousands of people continued to suffer the consequences of Typhoon Prapiroon, the director of the Hong Kong Observatory defended his decision to hoist only a No3 signal, saying his judgment was based on "established criteria" and not on the fears of the public. Callers questioned why a typhoon with wind speeds of 211 kilometers per hour in Ngong Ping was not given a higher rating. They accused him of jeopardizing their safety. "The fact that no-one died [Thursday] - that's a miracle of miracles." The Airport Authority, meanwhile, struggled throughout the day to restore order following the chaos caused by the unexpectedly devastating storm. A spokeswoman apologized to passengers for the inconvenience, but said she hoped they would understand that the airline was not able to get much information on the typhoon because its direction changed suddenly. About 70 percent of the more than 800 flights scheduled Thursday were canceled, delayed or diverted because of the storm. 18 people died, with at least seven more missing, after Prapiroon crashed ashore, pounding the area with torrential rains and gale force winds Friday before being downgraded to a tropical storm. Authorities evacuated about 534,000 residents in low-lying areas. Prapiroon was blamed for the collapse of 8,100 buildings with initial economic losses set at 2.5 billion yuan (HK$2.43 billion). Typhoon Prapiroon narrowly missed hitting Shanghai's 13 million residents early Thursday.
The death toll from Tropical Storm Prapiroon in southern China has risen to at least 55, with 17 people still missing. Prapiroon was downgraded from a typhoon on Friday but continues to pound the region with winds and rain. More than six million people were affected by the typhoon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES -
U.S. - During the second half of July, lightning has proven particularly deadly across the U.S. - Lightning has killed at least 27 people this year, with more than half of those fatalities (14) occurring since July 15. In addition, there were three fatalities during the last half of July where lightning is the suspected cause of death. This is more than double the number of fatalities seen in recent years for the last half of July. In the past 30 years, lightning has killed about 2,000 people across the U.S. with an average of 66 people each year. In addition, hundreds of people are injured each year. "In the past two weeks, we've seen an alarming increase in the number of lightning deaths in this country." In three separate incidents, four of the fatalities this year have involved teenagers playing soccer. Three fatalities were golf-related, two were related to camping and two were people killed while on riding lawn mowers. Males have accounted for 22 of the fatalities, and five have been female. New Jersey and Colorado have each had three fatalities; Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Michigan have each had two fatalities. Single fatalities have occurred in Nebraska, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Alabama, Indiana, Wisconsin, New York, Montana and Arizona.

MASSACHUSETTS - RARE ‘derecho’ topples trees, tower - Damage to many sections of Worcester County on Wednesday afternoon was caused by a rare weather event that last occurred in the area more than 10 years ago. A derecho is a widespread “family of downburst clusters” that is part of a very fast-moving, long-lived windstorm. Derechos travel a long distance in a short amount of time. The last derecho to hit the area was on July 15, 1995, when winds of 93 mph were recorded in Otis, and an estimated 1 million trees were blown down in the Adirondack Mountains in upstate New York.

COLORADO - MASSIVE MUDSLIDE in Telluride - An avalanche of mud and rock closed Colorado Avenue east of town Monday night, after rains loosed massive amounts of mud in Royer Creek Basin. The slide began above Tomboy Road and slid down Royer Creek between 4:30 and 5:30 p.m. Monday, flowing all the way to the San Miguel River before stopping, dragging huge boulders and huge trees with it. “One of the problems with the slide is it took Royer Creek out of its banks and moved it west of where the creek is supposed to go.” "This was a 100- to 300-year event. Evidently there was a four point failure up in Royer Creek Basin above Tomboy that created this debris flow. It was a VERY RARE event."

Friday, August 4, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/3 -
5.0 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon’s restiveness continues at a very alarming level and Phivolcs officials have warned that the volcano is nearing eruption. As eruption loomed, the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council started putting up police checkpoints at entrances to the 6-km radius permanent danger zone. Lava flow continues and big boulders are reaching the 6-km distance from the crater. The Phivolcs official said Mayon had showed a RECORD HIGH of more than 12,500 tons of emission of sulfur dioxide. People should not venture into the permanent danger zone because the moment that Mayon starts emitting pyroclastic flow at about 60 velocity per hour speed, its 300 degrees Celsius temperature could instantly kill.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm CHRIS was 138 nmi NNW of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Tropical depression FABIO was 1149 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii (dissipating).
Tropical depression GILMA was 393 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (dissipating).
Tropical storm PRAPIROON was 225 nmi W of Hong Kong.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
NORTH KOREA - Up to 10,000 North Koreans were believed dead or missing in what Pyongyang’s official media is describing as the WORST FLOODING IN A CENTURY. Two weeks of heavy rainfall sent rainwater sweeping down deforested hillsides, unleashing rivers of mud on farms and villages. Malaria was now spreading in southern regions.

INDIA - Heavy rains and floods in Andhra Pradesh on Thursday collapsed houses, killing three people, and shut an airport. Nearly 5,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas around the coastal district of Srikakulam in the north of the state, and navy helicopters and boats have been sent to rescue those stranded by flood waters. The stormy weather was expected to last for another two days, with wind speeds of up to 60 kph expected.

NEPAL - At least 10 people, including five from a family, were killed in a landslide following torrential rain in a village in Rasuwa district in Nepal in the early morning on Thursday.

BELIZE - The month of July has brought UNUSUAL weather that has raised concerned for the National Emergency Management Organisation. An area of high pressure in the atmosphere over the Western Caribbean has kept conditions favorable for shower development. The result has been a series of tropical waves that have caused intense rainfall as it passed over the Belize. Many rivers across the country have reached flood stage due to the above average rainfall that has caused soil to saturate and low lying areas to be consumed by water. The Orange Walk district has already reached 75% above normal rainfall, joined by the Belize, Cayo and Stann-Creek districts which have also received more rainfall than usual. With the Mopan rivers in the Cayo district still rising, waters are expected to reach Belize district by next week therefore residents can expect more flooding.

PHILIPPINES - Despite threats to their lives, residents of Pallar Village, Western Bicutan, Taguig City, refused to heed the order to evacuate issued by the local government. On Monday officials had declared the area a danger zone after a landslide left 23 houses in knee-deep mud. A 20-meter perimeter wall is threatening to fall over the houses after the landslide undermined its foundation. Part of the wall has already collapsed. The wall encloses McKinley Hills Village, a high-end property owned by Megaworld Corp. It is showing cracks in places and there is a strong possibility that it would collapse. Floodwaters rushing in at the height of the storm weakened the wall.

RUSSIA - Torrential flooding in Russia's Far East could destroy an oil and gas pipeline in one of the country's most ambitious energy projects. About 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) are under threat from floodwaters, which could endanger human lives as well as lead to an environmental disaster. "The volume of simultaneous bursts of flooding in the zone of the pipeline's route may amount to 500,000 cubic meters." 70,000 cu m of torrential flood waters is enough to damage an underground pipeline. A report suggested suspending the construction of the pipeline while an environmental report is conducted to identify ways to reduce the risk of pollution.

IOWA - A RECORD RAINFALL of six-point-nine inches fell Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The rainfall total broke a 53-year-old RECORD for daily precipitation, and left downed trees and ponds of water.

UTAH - A supercell unleashed crushing blasts of wind, intense rain and hail, crashing thunder and lances of lightning, whipping up some $13.2 million in damage on Tuesday. "It was a very expensive 12 minutes." The supercell tore a diagonal swath through Provo from the west end. Trees were on their sides all over the city, with roots grotesquely torn out of the ground.

TEXAS - some parts of El Paso, particularly the west side, have been inundated by almost of a foot of rain in the last five days. A massive storm all but shut down El Paso on Tuesday and caused widespread flooding, saturated mountainsides and collapsed rock walls. The normally placid Rio Grande was moving at twice its normal speed, although it receded Tuesday night. The state declared El Paso a disaster area.

SNOW / COLD -
SOUTH AFRICA - Heavy snow has fallen on Johannesburg for the FIRST TIME IN 25 YEARS as South Africa faces SOME OF ITS HARSHEST WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR DECADES. At least four South Africans have been reported dead. Snow, rain and rockfalls have closed mountain roads across the country. Torrential rains caused flooding in the eastern and southern Cape. Snow, freezing temperatures and gale force winds were expected to persist in parts of the country yesterday. “It [the snow] is by no means freakish but I would certainly classify it as RARE." Johannesburg last had snow on September 11, 1981. Widespread snow across the country had been recorded only twice in the past 20 years, in 1981 and 1988. Meteorologists were investigating whether a severe storm that swept through the northern town of Dullstroom on Tuesday night was a tornado. At least six people were injured in the heavy winds and rain, which also ripped roofs off homes.

Thursday, August 3, 2006 -

Another line of intense thunderstorms kept me off the internet yesterday. Three more inches of rain - after the 103 degree heat, this rainy weather is actually heavenly. Sorry I could not get the Wednesday update on.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/2 -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA, REG
5.1 MYANMAR
5.2 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 TONGA ISLANDS
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
7/1 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.3 TONGA ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA ISLANDS

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - It is over two weeks since a tsunami hit Java's southern coast, but some 10,000 people sheltering in camps are still refusing to go back to their fully intact houses. After the series of natural disasters in Indonesia, they are simply too scared to go home. Many admit they did not see the tsunami coming but almost everyone vows they heard it. “It roared, like a jet plane taking off.” While the death toll has approached nearly 700, estimates of the number of people whose homes have been destroyed ranges from 10,000 to 15,000. The tsunami destroyed 63 hotels, 163 stores, 162 restaurants and 600 street kiosks as well as 21 fish markets and close to 2,000 fishing boats. “So many disasters; tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes; one after another. What’s next?”

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - Five to 10 acres of the 60-acre lava "bench" on the coast of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park has collapsed into the sea. The exact size of Sunday's collapse won't be known until Friday when aerial mapping is done, and that number may not be completely accurate because the gap left by the collapse is already filling with new lava. The last major collapse was Nov. 28 when 44 acres of rock disappeared into the sea, including an entire 34-acre bench plus 10 acres of older cliff behind the bench. It was the largest Kilauea Volcano bench collapse recorded. Tour helicopters reported Sunday that they saw a sudden cloud of white steam beginning at 12:49 p.m. with a black cloud at its base. Although the cloud lasted about 10 minutes, the collapse is believed to have taken place in a single moment.

WASHINGTON - On Tuesday, for the third time in two weeks, Mount St. Helens trembled with a 3.6-magnitude earthquake. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey in Vancouver said the quakes probably do not represent a change in eruption style, although they are the largest since the earliest days of the eruption in the fall of 2004. Each quake either represents a lurch or surge of the massive spine coming out of the conduit, or it could represent fracturing of rock around the conduit pumping lava onto the crater surface. A third scenario raises the possibility of a slump or fracture within the lava dome after lava is extruded. The volcano continues to extrude lava at a rate of about a pickup truck load every few seconds.Tiny earthquakes have occurred every few minutes for the past several months.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical storm CHRIS was 98 nmi NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Tropical depression FABIO was 1392 nmi E of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression GILMA was 348 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Typhoon PRAPIROON was 161 nmi SSW of Hong Kong.

CHINA - was bracing for Tropical Storm Prapiroon, as a landslide in the rain-soaked southern province of Guangdong left eight dead. Prapiroon is packing winds of 90-kilometres an hour and is moving across the South China Sea. Southern and central China have been awash with storms since May, with Typhoon Kaemi leaving more than 100 people dead or missing when it ravaged the region last week. The region has suffered two months of brutal weather, and more than 1,300 people were reported killed in weather-related disasters between May and the time that Typhoon Kaemi struck.
Typhoon Prapiroon killed eight people, destroyed crops and forced 500,000 to flee their homes in the northern Philippines when it battered them for the last 4 days.

CHRIS - The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season developed Tuesday morning in the western Atlantic Ocean, just east of the Leeward Islands, and grew stronger during the day. Some early projections called for Chris to approach the Gulf of Mexico, but it's unclear whether the storm will hold together and strengthen or fall apart, according to forecasters.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
MEXICO - MUDSLIDE - Eleven people were killed when part of a rain-sodden mountain collapsed and buried two houses in a remote Mazatec Indian hamlet in south-eastern Mexico. Heavy rains have pounded northern, central and south-eastern Mexico in recent weeks, washing out roads and raising fears of flash-flooding and mudslides in mountainous areas.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
NEW YORK - A heat emergency is in place in New York City, as high temperatures grip the east of the United States for a second day. The heatwave, which has been moving across the US from California, is also affecting Philadelphia and Washington. Philadelphia, New York City and Washington DC saw maximum temperatures of 38C (100F) on Wednesday. Similar temperatures are predicted for today, after which they will drop to mid-30C. New York City has not seen such a string of hot temperatures since July 1999. Temperatures have cooled in California, where the record 15-day heat wave was blamed for 136 deaths and widespread power cuts.

Tuesday, August 1, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/31 -
5.1 SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.3 OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.
5.3 NEAR COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO

TSUNAMI -
RUSSIA - UNUSUAL SMALL TSUNAMI WAVE HIT KAMCHATKA - A tsunami warning issued because of a moderate quake and a mini tsunami off the eastern coast of Kamchatka has been lifted. Residents of the settlement of Krutoberegovo and Ust-Kamchatsk had received a warning and recommendations to stay away from the coastal zone on Sunday. Rescuers were put on alert in the Ust-Kamchatsk district and in the regional center etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. An earthquake with a 4.4 magnitude on the Richter scale occurred 27 kilometers northeast of Krutoberegovo and 30 kilometers from Ust-Kamchatsk at 08:05 local time on Sunday. The water level was seen to recede in the Kamchatka River. Two hours after the quake, a wave up to two meters high hit the coast moving 15 meters deep. About 6,000 people live in that zone. Specialists note that the tsunami was an UNUSUAL occurrence. They believe the wave was NOT triggered by the quake. The mini tsunami could be triggered by “processes that occurred after the earthquake” or it could be an “underwater slide”. According to the head of the geophysics department, the sea is not deep in that area which makes tsunamis almost impossible there. Besides, no quakes capable of causing tsunamis were registered in the Pacific Ocean on that day. Specialists qualify the wave as a RARE occurrence. Such single waves may appear because of atmospheric events. However, no such meteorological conditions were fixed in the seas close to the peninsula on July 30.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Lava flow from the crater of Mayon volcano on Tuesday ignited a fire that destroyed plantation areas in two villages near the six-kilometer permanent danger zone. Coconut plantation, grazing and vegetation areas were devoured by the cascading hot lava. The toe of the advancing lava in the Mabinit Channel has advanced some 200 meters the past 24 hours, or approximately 5.8 aerial kilometers from the crater and at 280 meters elevation. However, the sulfur dioxide emission rate decreased to 7.418 tonnes per day, although it has remained way above normal levels. The general trend for SO2 flux is still increasing. The volcano's summit Tuesday morning revealed voluminous gas emission with easterly to northeasterly drifts. The earthquake activity inside Mayon generally remained at similar levels throughout this unrest, which is low and indicative of Mayon's "open" magma system. The nature of these quakes suggests magma ascent. Officials have started a 24-hour round-the-clock watch on Mayon to warn the people of an impending major eruption.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropical depression 08E was 333 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical storm FABIO was 964 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm CHRIS was 211 nmi N of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm PRAPIROON was 182 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

CHRIS - The season's third tropical storm formed in the Atlantic Ocean this morning. A tropical storm warning is posted for the Leeward Islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguila, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin/St. Maarten. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Chris is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands, then bring squally rains to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Computer models predict Chris will dissipate before reaching the Bahamas.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
NEW ZEALAND - July's wet weather was due to an UNUSUAL cluster of weather patterns. Parts of the Wairarapa and Wanganui had their WETTEST JULY ON RECORD after being hit by three rain-making low pressure systems on July 4-7, 12-16 and 19-22. Another low-pressure system was expected to cross central New Zealand later this week.

IRELAND - A number of houses are thought to have been damaged by a freak storm in Glengoole, around 8km from Killenaule in Co Tipperary. The storm, which has been described as a mini-tornado, struck at around 2am. Some houses had slates and tiles ripped from their roofs, while others suffered structural damage.

COLORADO - Powerful thunderstorms Sunday flooded several residents’ basements with up to 2 feet of water and mud after a mudslide on Smuggler Mountain blocked nearby drainage pipes. Homeowners reported hearing basement windows explode from water pressure. Some said the rainfall was the heaviest seen in nearly 40 years in Aspen. “It was like someone was pouring a bucket, but a million of them.”

Monday, July 31, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/30 -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.3 GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.0 OFF COAST OF MEXICO
5.0 NORWEGIAN SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - PREPARE FOR IMMEDIATE EVACUATION authorities on Sunday warned residents living near Mount Mayon, as lava flowed past the volcano's six-kilometer permanent danger zone. No signs of an immediate eruption were reported as of posting time though residents affected by ash fall and pyroclastic materials from the volcano were told they should evacuate. The Office of Civil Defense in Bicol, meanwhile, is closely monitoring the condition of residents in Santo Domingo town affected by ash fall.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 07W was 115 nmi E of Baguio City, Philippines.

A developing tropical system far out into the east Atlantic - this swirl that originated near the Cape Verde islands off Africa shows promise of becoming the first hurricane of the 2006 season. If it reaches named status, it will be Chris. It is still days from the Lesser Antilles and a week from any possible threat to the United States coast. Most of the Atlantic remains dry, "covered with a dense layer of Saharan dust." Saharan sandstorm season is from June through October and so far this year the frequency and density of the dust storms has suppressed tropical system formation in the eastern Atlantic. On Friday, dust from a Saharan sand storm blew to within a hundred miles of the east Florida coast.

HEAT -
U.S. - MORE THAN 60% OF THE U.S. NOW HAS ABNORMALLY DRY OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS, stretching from Georgia to Arizona and across the north through the Dakotas, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin. An area stretching from south central North Dakota to central South Dakota is the most drought-stricken region in the nation. "It's the epicenter. It's just like a wasteland in north central South Dakota." Farm ponds and other small bodies of water have dried out from the heat, leaving the residual alkali dust to be whipped up by the wind. The blowing, dirt-and-salt mixture is a phenomenon that hasn't been seen in south central North Dakota since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. North Dakota last year led the nation in production of 15 different commodity classes, including spring wheat, durum wheat, barley, oats, canola, pinto beans, dry edible peas, lentils, flaxseed, sunflower and honey.

GLOBAL HEATWAVE - Hot, arid weather is afflicting millions in America and in dozens of countries across Europe and parts of east Asia. The phenomenon has surprised meteorologists who are used to seeing drought as a regional, not global, problem. Most of the US is 3-7C above the average for the time of year and several western states have been more than 9C higher. In South America, mid-winter temperatures in Uruguay, Argentina, Chile and Brazil are up to 7C higher than average. Temperatures are averaging 7C higher than usual across southern England and Scotland, France and Spain. Pakistan, Bangladesh and southern India hit 3C above normal and much of central China was up by 5C. “By 2040 this will be just an average summer and by 2060 it will be a relatively cool one.” The most comfortable places, at least in terms of temperature, were western Russia, North Korea, Siberia and Japan, which were 3C cooler than usual.

ODD -
OHIO - Scientists say it's a mirage, but others swear that when the weather is right, Clevelanders can see across Lake Erie and spot Canadian trees and buildings 50 miles away. Eyewitness accounts have long been part of the city's history. Mirages can occur during an atmospheric inversion, in which a layer of cold air blankets the lake, topped by layers of increasingly warm air. When this happens, it can cause the light that filters through these layers from across the lake to bend, forming a lens that can create the illusion of distant objects. Such a mirage is rare, but not unheard-of. A reporter in Ontario has seen the other way, he's seen Cleveland from across Lake Erie twice. "All of a sudden, there was Cleveland, just off the Canadian shore, as if it were just across a river...When it shows up, it looks like you can touch it."

Sunday, July 30, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/29 -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.4 AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN BDR REG
5.1 AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN BDR REG
7/28 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.1 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

AFGHANISTAN - A 5.2 earthquake hit northern Afghanistan early Saturday, killing one woman and injuring 12 other people.

TAIWAN - A 6.1-magnitude earthquake hit Taiwan Friday, rocking buildings in the capital Taipei for almost a minute, but no damage or casualties were reported. It was the second biggestquake in Taiwan this year.

CHINA - media reports have accused the Yunnan government of failing to alert the public about seismic warnings ahead of last week's 5.1 earthquake on July 22 that claimed at least 22 lives. The Yunnan Earthquake Bureau reportedly had predicted early this month that a quake would hit the area. City authorities were said to be wary about the accuracy of the prediction and might have kept the information to themselves to avoid causing public anxiety. Another report said the Zhaotong earthquake bureau in May had predicted an earthquake measuring more than magnitude 5. A city government office employee said the government received a notice about an imminent earthquake on July 20, and informed county governments the next day about an emergency meeting to be held on July 23. "Unfortunately the quake happened before we could even hold the meeting."

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - MT. KARANGETAN LAVA FLOW THREATENS VILLAGES - Flows of lava accompanied by showers of molten rock shooting into the sky have forced villagers living close to Mount Karangetan volcano in eastern Indonesia to shelter in schools and churches, officials said on Saturday. There did not appear to be a danger of a major eruption by Mount Karangetan at the moment but the lava continued to threaten nearby villages. There have been no reports of casualties so far from the volcano on Siau island, which lies north of Manado on Sulawesi island, 2,200 km (1,365 miles) northeast of the capital Jakarta.

PHILIPPINES - MT. MAYON MAY ERUPT IN DAYS - A scientist at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology warned that eruption may take place in days if the heightened restiveness of Mt. Mayon is sustained. Friday the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission of Mt. Mayon shot up to its highest level, at 9,275 tons a day, since its "quiet" eruption starting last July 14. "We are still looking for other parameters like ground deformation, lava fountainings, harmonic tremors, and explosion type earthquakes before we can raise the alert level to level 4." The advancing lava front has already reached the 450-meter elevation, moving some 150 meters down the slope a day, while the length of the main lava flow is about 4.45 aerial kilometers from the crater summit.
FOREST FIRE WARNING FROM LAVA FLOWS - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology warned on Saturday against forest fires in the path of lava flows from Mayon Volcano. Lava flows from Mayon's crater had spread 5.4 kilometers to the southeast. The burning rocks threatened the forest and villages in the area. At least 394 tremors and four low-frequency volcanic quakes were monitored in the last 24 hours.

SAMOA - There’s been a prediction that the Matavanu volcano on Samoa’s Savaii island will erupt again in the next decade. The volcano last erupted a century ago spewing lava for miles and nearly wiping out the entire population of villages bordering Saleaula.

NEW TYPE OF VOLCANO DISCOVERED IN THE PACIFIC - A new type of volcano may be heating up the floor of the western Pacific Ocean. The group of small volcanoes, called petit spot volcanoes, was discovered far from the tectonic-plate boundaries (such as mid-oceanic ridges) that often spawn volcanoes and earthquakes. Petit spot volcanoes yield no evidence of a liquid rock source from deep within the Earth. The source of these volcanoes is believed to be melted rock from the upper mantle, much closer to the surface, which has been squeezed through cracks in the tectonic plate above. "These small volcanoes - because of their location and the fact that there are these clear cracks that have formed due to the bending of the [tectonic] plate - almost assuredly did not form by a plume."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

PHILIPPINES - A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION entered the country yesterday, posing a threat to the Bicol Region where public storm warning signal No. 1 is already in effect. Tropical depression "Henry" was some 400 kilometers east of Legazpi City in Albay, packing maximum center winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph). The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology assured Albay residents that "Henry" would not trigger lava flows around the slope of Mt. Mayon.

SOUTH KOREA - DOUBLE-DIGIT RAINFALL was common throughout the Korean peninsula this week as the remnants of Typhoon Kaemi moved northward through the area. The South Korean capital received nearly 11 inches of rain fell in four days, forcing thousands to evacuate. All told in July, Seoul got more than 3 feet of rain - 38.48 inches - three times the normal rainfall of 12.73 inches. The rain was THE MOST SEVERE TO HIT THE COUNTRY SINCE 1973. Roads were closed throughout Seoul Saturday and officials warned residents to be prepared for emergencies.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
INDIANA - Thursday night's rainfall set a few records; not only did they break a RECORD FOR MOST RAINFALL EVER ON JULY 27TH, but with four days left in the month, it was ALREADY THE RAINIEST JULY EVER in South Bend.

LOUISIANA - Heavy rain in Shreveport Thursday smashed the RECORD FOR RAINFALL FOR JULY 27TH. Thursday's torrents dropped 3.21 inches at the official reporting site out by Shreveport Regional Airport. That was well over an inch more than the old record of 1.83 inches, set in 1928. On a typical July 27, the city would see just over 1/10 inch of rain. Up to the downpour Thursday, Shreveport had been 8.21 inches under its normal rainfall for the calendar year. Since Jan. 1, the area has seen 26.17 inches of rain, but the normal rainfall would be 31.28 inches.

OHIO - Hundreds evacuated from Ohio flooding. Fast-rising water gushed into homes, condominiums and apartments early Friday, chasing people to rooftops to await boat rescues as 10 inches of rain raised the Grand River 11 feet above flood level.

UNITED KINGDOM - Royston suffered flash floods this week in the BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM TO HIT THE TOWN SINCE ITS RECORDS BEGAN in 1972. Residents were forced out of their homes on Wednesday night, July 26, as flood waters rose. Neighbours banded together to help as 3in of rain - double the average monthly rainfall for July — hit the town in just two hours. "The storm started at about 7pm and we had torrential rain and hailstones for a couple of hours."

INDIA - More than 6,000 people have been evacuated to safer places as heavy rains lashed south, north and central Gujarat on Saturday inundating low-lying areas. The Purna river was above the danger mark, forcing authorities to evacuate at least 5,200 people on its downstream in the Navsari district. More than 600 people were shifted in the Broach district while 400 were evacuated in Vadodara as swirling waters of the Bhukhi river entered villages. As the weather bureau predicted more rains during the next two days, State authorities have alerted people in the downstream of at least 20 medium irrigation dams threatening to overflow if the rains continued unabated. Near eight other dams, people were advised to remain prepared for evacuation in case of an emergency.

Friday, July 28, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/27 -
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.2 WESTERN CAROLINE IS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .

Tropcial depression EMILIA was 322 nmi SSW of San Diego, California.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
PAKISTAN - MUDSLIDES CHANGED THE COURSE OF THE KUNHAR RIVER and inundated two villages in northern Pakistan, killing a woman and two children overnight Wednesday during torrential rains. Rescuers on Thursday were searching for at least five more people. Kunhar River washed away more than 100 mostly mud houses in Kashtra and Gul Deri villages, located in a valley, after changing its course. The latest deaths brings the toll from heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan to at least 26. Thousands of people are at risk of landslides in parts of NWFP and Pakistan-administered Kashmir where ground has become highly unstable following the 7.6-magnitude earthquake last year. Meanwhile, reports from another northern town of Gilgit said at least three children were injured Thursday in flashfloods and mudslides in the Jotal area. Landslides also badly damaged nearly a kilometre stretch of the Karakorum Highway in Gilgit that links Pakistan to China, causing a serious disruption in traffic flow.

LOUISIANA - New data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers confirms fears that rain from hurricanes and tropical storms could flood some New Orleans neighborhoods with up to 5 feet of water when new floodgates are closed at the mouths of three major drainage canals. The floodgates are designed to prevent storm surges from Lake Pontchartrain from backing up into the canals, preventing the surge flooding that inundated most of the city during Hurricane Katrina. But the floodgates also would prevent rainfall from draining through canals into the lake. When plans to install the floodgates were announced in January, Corps officials acknowledged the possibility of flooding caused by heavy rains, but never said how bad it could be. The gates would be closed if a 5-foot storm surge threatened the city, which has happened only three times since 1959. The flooding problem is complicated by the city's diminished system of drainage pumps. Some pumps are still under repair after Katrina; others need to be positioned to move water out of canals and over closed floodgates. The "delay threatens to re-flood our metro area and kill our recovery."

EASTERN U.S. - the region has had three major floods in less than two years after nearly 50 years of no flooding. Officials fear another storm could pose flooding troubles from upstate New York to Washington. They recommended re-drawing outdated flood plain maps, requiring municipalities to have all-encompassing flood mitigation plans and strengthening the flood warning system.

ARIZONA - The monsoon storm that boomed and flashed across the Valley on Tuesday night was the BIGGEST IN FIVE YEARS, quenching a bone-dry region as it toppled utility poles, uprooted trees, flooded streets and left thousands without power. The storm dumped nearly 3 inches of rain in the southeast Valley and left behind a promise of more to come. So far this season, 1.17 inches of rain has fallen at the airport, compared with 1.13 inches for the entire monsoon season in 2001 and 1.10 inches in 2004. High pressure over Nevada and Utah is driving an eastern flow of moisture with disturbances rotating through the flow. Tropical moisture pulled in from the south is setting up conditions for more storms like Tuesday's. The moisture is coming from Tropical Storm Emilia, which is moving up the western coast of Baja California. Tuesday night's mayhem was a combination of at least three storms. The storms were intense, with lightning illuminating the night sky every few seconds. At least 5,400 lightning strikes hit the ground, 10 to 15 percent of the normal annual total. "This is UNUSUAL. It's a significant number, and one of the biggest days I've seen (in five years of watching monsoon storms)."

HEAT -
EUROPE - LETHAL HEATWAVE HAS ENGULFED EUROPE FOR THE LAST TWO WEEKS - France and Italy today reported new victims, bringing the total death toll to more than 80 people. High temperatures persisted in northern Italy, Germany and southeast Europe, but forecasters predicted that spreading storms and rain would bring respite to many areas of the baking continent. Rain would come as welcome relief to farmers, who in many countries have reported withering crops, and it would also help boost perilously low water levels. The Italian Agriculture Minister called the heatwave "dramatic" , with estimates of the damage to the country's agricultural sector at about E500 million ($837.17 million). In France, groundwater levels in the Paris region were at their LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS and water restrictions were in place for nearly half of the country. In Germany, temperatures were back above 30 degC today, and a motorway was closed after concrete sections cracked and lifted in the heat.
UNITED KINGDOM - The scorching hot weather is thought to be behind the first flowering in more than 25 years of a plant most botanists didn't even know was in the UK. "It could be that conditions here now are as they would be in the Himalayas where this plant comes from. And the dry winters and incredibly hot summers are causing this climbing plant [clematis] to produce the delicate, white flowers."

CALIFORNIA - UNPRECEDENTED 12 DAY HEATWAVE KILLING THOUSANDS OF ANIMALS - The record heat has caused the deaths of thousands of cows, chickens and turkeys in California, the number one milk-producing state in the country. More than a million pounds of dead livestock is rotting in the sun, as many of the rendering plants normally tasked with disposing of dead livestock have shut down or are overloaded. Several counties have passed emergency measures allowing carcasses to be dumped in local landfills, creating a risk of contamination to ground water.
THE WEATHER PATTERNS THAT CAUSED THE SCORCHING TEMPERATURES WERE 'POSITIVELY FREAKISH'. The Great Heat Wave of 2006 was not just an epic meteorological event - it was an epochal one, unprecedented in northern California's weather annals, meteorologists agree. It has been HOTTER FOR LONGER THAN EVER BEFORE. The region's last significant heat wave - in 1972 - lasted just two days, and never in the past has the Bay Area suffered through as many consecutive days of temperatures above 110. "It has been truly extraordinary." By any account, the last two weeks have been truly Saharan. At least one city has hit 100 degrees or above since July 16. It's not just the scorching days that made this heat wave remarkable. It's also the hot, sticky nights. In Sacramento, nighttime temperatures typically fall to 65 degrees or lower during even the most torrid heat waves. Not this time. The current heat wave broke Sacramento's RECORD FOR HIGHEST OVERNIGHT TMPERATURE with 79 degrees. If the heat wave is unprecedented, so is the weather pattern that has caused it. Typically, the Central Valley's heat is mitigated by intrusions of cool marine air penetrating the Golden Gate and adjacent low-lying areas. That's what shut down the 1972 heat wave and virtually every other coastal California hot spell on record. But offshore water temperatures recently have been 2 to 4 degrees above normal. That temperature difference could be preventing the thermal barrier that's required to usher cool marine air into the Central Valley. Additionally, the Bay Area was visited by SOMETHING TRULY ALIEN during this hot spell: huge quantities of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California. An anomalous high-pressure flow swept humid air from those areas into Northern California. There the high pressure remained stationary. Such a strange concatenation of meteorological phenomena is unheard of for the Bay Area and delta. But that doesn't necessarily mean it won't happen again.

Thursday, July 27, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/26 -
5.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 TONGA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - VOLCANO KARYMSKI on the Kamchatka Peninsula has spewed forth ashes to an altitude of up to 6.5 km in a series of outbursts. A cloud of volcanic dust the size of 20 by 15 km has shifted 240 km to the east of the volcano at an altitude of about 4,000 meters. The volcano poses no danger to populated localities.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DANIEL was 846 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm EMILIA was 338 nmi WNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

CHINA - TYPHOON KAEMI - 80 DEAD OR MISSING - TORRENTIAL RAIN - with a military barracks swept away, landslides wiping out thousands of homes and rivers bursting their banks. Jiangxi was one of the worst hit areas from Kaemi, which struck the mainland on Tuesday night before weakening into a tropical storm, with Xinhua reporting more than 9,000 homes had been destroyed by floods in the province. More devastation was expected as the storm continues to hover over the region. Government agencies throughout south and southeast China warned of reservoirs overflowing their banks and causing huge damage. More than 750,000 people had been evacuated from their homes early in the week as the region prepared for Kaemi. The region is still reeling from Tropical Storm Bilis, which hit southeastern China on July 14, resulting in nearly 10 days of torrential rains.
LEVEE COLLAPSE - A 200-metre-long levee in southern China has collapsed due to heavy rains from tropical storm Kaemi, raising the threat of floods for 20,000 villagers in Fujian province.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
NEW ZEALAND - RAINFALL RECORDS BROKEN - Lower North Island farmers are having to delve far back in their memories to recall a winter as wet as this. In some parts of South Wairarapa and on a belt of hills north and south of Wanganui in particular, RAINFALL RECORDS are being broken with more than 400 millimetres in July so far. Right through the region, pastures are waterlogged and the hills are scarred with slips. It has come at a bad time – lambing and calving is three to four weeks away on most farms and quality feed is needed. The rain has prevented frosts from lowering soil temperatures and the grass is plentiful – but the ground is so soft that for every mouthful the sheep and cattle get, their feet destroy four more. Large numbers of lambs failed to survive to weaning last year, a puzzling phenomenon with no obvious cause. The forecast is for warm and dry weather over the next two months, though it must be said that this month's drenching was not predicted.

HEAT -
SWITZERLAND - MOUNTAINS CRUMBLING - Following the spectacular fall of half a million cubic metres of rock from the Eiger peak earlier this month, the consequence of a 200m lowering of the glacier which supported it over the past century and a half, the Swiss government’s Environment Office has drawn up a list of towns and villages most at threat from Switzerland's crumbling mountains. The list includes Zermatt, which environment agency spokesman Adrian Aeschlimann pointed out is surrounded on three sides by permafrost-covered peaks. Saas Balen near Saas Fee, Kandersteg and St Moritz also make the list. Besides rockslides, caused by rising temperatures melting the glaciers and the permafrost which holds land together above 2300m, other risks include meltwater floods, and rock falls into reservoirs sending mini-tsunamis over the tops of dams and onto the valleys below.

CALIFORNIA - 11TH DAY OF HEAT WAVE - Firefighters are battling to contain raging wildfires in California on the 11th day of a heat wave that has been blamed for at least 56 deaths amid temperatures of 45 C.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/25 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA

INDONESIA - Repeated seismic tremors in Indonesia have made the people completely paranoid: the syndrome has hit especially those employees who work in Jakarta’s skyscrapers. Nowadays, they prefer to stay outdoors chatting with colleagues rather than sitting at their desks inside. A chain of cell phone and email messages raising the alarm about possible tremors is generating a climate of paranoia and fear. But the panic is not limited to Jakarta alone. On the 24th, thousands of people in Banteng, Bulukumba and Jeneponto – South Sulawesi province – left their homes on the coast en masse to take refuge in higher land after a false tsunami alert. After slight tremors in the area, the surface of the ocean lowered, giving rise to fears of the onset of a freak wave.
There is no let-up in tremors in Indonesia, where people are living in fear and tourists have started to cancel their bookings, leaving hotels and beaches empty amid persistent tsunami alerts. Works are underway to boost alarm systems against freak waves in the country’s highest-risk areas.

TONGA - Not too many people are aware of the gigantic volcanic ridge that separates the Kingdom of Tonga and the Fijian Islands. The volcanic activities in this ridge are so proactive that the bottom of the earth keeps rumbling and moving everyday. It may even be the most active volcanic ridge in the world. During the 11 years 1995 – 2005, there have been a total of almost 8,100 earthquakes in this area. In the last five years, the number of earthquakes in the geographic grid where the kingdom of Tonga is has increased by 32%. The year 2004 had a total of 1,216 earthquakes, being the HIGHEST IN THE LAST 25 YEARS. Last year there were 880 quakes. For the first six months of 2006, there have been a total of 807 earthquakes, with May registering a RECORD NUMBER of 252 earthquakes during the month.

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - Researchers have found that water resources in the tsunami-affected areas in Kerala are still severely affected almost two years after the disaster of December 2004. They found that wells contained an unusual saline character and taste. The low oxygen content dissolved in the ground water collected from wells indicated the slow deterioration of quality as a result of contamination. Wells that were de-watered and cleaned regularly were also found to retain the saltiness. Water Quality Index was also low in most of the areas that were hit by the crashing waves.

VOLCANOES -
AUSTRALIA - A volcanic eruption in south-west Victoria is "well overdue'' and could occur without warning, a scientist has warned. Western Victoria is home to some of Australia's youngest volcanoes, which erupted in the last 20,000 to 30,000 years. Research shows young volcanoes erupt, on average, every 13,000 years. This suggests eruptions at Tower Hill, Mount Napier, Mount Eccles and Mount Elephant are "well overdue''. "There's a small possibility of it happening in the next 100 years.'' Lava from a volcano would threaten an area of 10 to 15 kilometres surrounding it, and ash could cover everything within eight to 10 kilometres. "These ones we're looking at here are a one-off volcano - they erupt and they stop again pretty quickly and that's the end. The volcanoes are extinct, but the whole area could erupt. The whole area is sleeping."

PHILIPPINES - incandescent fragments of the continuously advancing lava flows from the crater of Mount Mayon have already started to burn hectares of grazing areas and coconut and vegetable plantations, occasionally igniting wild fires that could threaten lives of farmers venturing within the six-kilometer radius permanent danger zone. Fragments of the lava flows had started to roll faster and farther down the slopes along the Bonga gully and the lava toe had already reached almost four kilometers from Mayon's crater, or about two kilometers away from the boundary of the 6-kilometer permanent danger zone at the Southeast quadrant of the volcano. Super-heated lava fragments and the secondary explosions that trigger pyroclastic flow pose real danger to any life they hit. Some 495 families had voluntarily left their homes in the Barangays of Sta. Misericordia and San Fernando in Sto. Domingo town due to the ash falls that showered their places. The ash falls originated from the latest secondary explosions, as advancing lavas pushed old deposits of volcanic materials along the volcano slopes.
Thieves cut phone lines to steal about 30 metres of copper wire around lava-spilling Mayon volcano, crippling the communications of volcanologists.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map -
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression DANIEL was 897 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm EMILIA was 114 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAEMI was 216 nmi NE of Hong Kong.

PHILIPPINES - Typhoon Glenda (Kaemi) left the country with two people missing while hundreds of others were displaced due to flooding in some areas in Luzon. 137,957 people were directly affected by the storm. Crop damage in Pampanga and Zambales amounted to P24.5 million.
CHINA - Typhoon Kaemi struck the coast of East China's Fujian Province yesterday afternoon, prompting the evacuation of more than 500,000 residents. The typhoon, which pummelled Taiwan overnight, caused widespread disruption to daily life but not enormous damage in China.

HAWAII - Daniel has been downgraded to a tropical storm but it could still cause some damage with high winds, rain and severe weather. Tropical Storm Daniel at midnight was about 850 miles East of the Big Island. "We are forecasting to eventually start moving west, becoming close to the Big Island sometime Friday."

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
PAKISTAN - Over 20 people died as monsoon rains triggered floods and landslides in many parts of the country and Azad Kashmir on Monday. While the rain was heaviest in Islamabad, a mudslide killed at least 12 people, including eight children, living in tents in Muzaffarabad. Punjab and the NWFP were also lashed by torrential rains. The areas affected by the Oct 8, 2005 earthquake remain vulnerable to landslides. The rains wrought havoc on the country’s communications links, electricity networks and transport systems. Six people lost their lives when their houses on the banks of sewage-filled Nullah Leh, in spate since the onset of the monsoon, collapsed as torrential rains hit Rawalpindi and flood waters inundated the low-lying areas.

HEAT -
CALIFORNIA has sweltered under record-breaking, 50-plus temperatures again, pushing up the heat-related death toll and straining the state's power grid. With temperatures soaring as high as 51.6C in parts of the state since Sunday, about 50 deaths have been blamed on the heat, but the actual death toll remained uncertain. Most victims were elderly people living in California's central valley, which was under its fifth straight day of excessive heat warnings. "This is a historic heat wave." This was the FIRST TIME IN 57 YEARS THAT BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAD ENDURED RECORD-BREAKING HEAT at the same time. In the 600km long central valley – one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world – farmers were spraying walnuts with organic sunscreen to protect their shells from burning.
It was ONE OF THE HOTTEST WEEKENDS IN MORE THAN A DECADE in Orange County because of three factors: hot air flowing seaward from the desert; monsoonal moisture from Baja California; and virtually no cooling sea breeze. And an UNUSUALLY powerful and RARE series of thunderstorms swept through Orange County and elsewhere Sunday, sparking lightning that set off a flurry of tree fires and toppled power lines. Lightning struck the ground in the county at least 300 times by 10 a.m.

The World Meteorological Organisation estimates that the number of heat-related deaths across the globe will double in the next 20 years. Heatwaves claim thousands of lives, killing more people each year than floods, tornadoes and hurricanes combined. And it is going to get worse. Scientists calculate that, as global warming bites and average temperatures around the world get higher, the risk of extreme heatwaves will also increase. The 2003 heatwave in Europe was "the greatest such event the world has ever seen". The latest climate models paint a very bleak picture, suggesting that the summer of 2003 will be the norm, will be happening every year in Europe, by the 2040s.

UNITED KINGDOM - Houses could crack under the strain of this summer's heatwave, home-owners were warned today. Building experts said that continuing hot and dry weather could see houses collapsing due to subsidence as July's intense heat following a winter of drought has left soil bone dry. Heavy rainfall could now cause parts of the soil to expand and move the buildings above them, they warned.

NETHERLANDS - July 2006 is on track to be the HOTTEST MONTH IN 300 YEARS in the Netherlands, since temperatures were first measured in 1706. Average daily temperatures in the first 24 days of July were a record of 22.3 degrees Celsius (72.14F) compared with the previous record of 21.4 degrees in July 1994 and normal average temperatures of 17.4.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006 -
Short, late update - more storm power outages, the cord to my air-conditioner partially melted, 3 inches of rain in 40 minutes last night.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/24 -
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW BRITAIN

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm DANIEL was 913 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm EMILIA was 121 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAEMI was 216 nmi NE of Hong Kong.

Typhoon Kaemi has reached China's south-eastern coast, bringing with it heavy rain and high winds. It made landfall at Jinjiang in Fujian province, and is set to cross a region still recovering from the effects of an earlier storm. More than 600 people died when tropical storm Bilis hit on July 14, causing massive flooding and forcing three million people from their homes. More than 430,000 people have been moved from their homes in Fujian, while another 80,000 have been evacuated in Zhejiang province. The typhoon passed across the Philippines on Monday, before reaching Taiwan, where it caused landslides and disruption.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
BRAZIL - THE WORST DROUGHT IN 20 YEARS has reduced South America's Iguazu falls to a trickle and tourists may have to wait until October to see water gushing over the cliffs again. The huge thundering Iguazu Falls dwarf North America's Niagara Falls and rival in size Victoria Falls on the Zambezi River in southern Africa.

EUROPE the searing heatwave claimed more lives in Europe today and high temperatures were forecast to continue until storms bring relief to some areas late this week. Hotspots of more than 35 degrees Celsius were noted in southern Spain, southwest France and northwest Italy and a vast swathe of the continent from the west coast of France into Poland sweltered in temperatures of 30-35 degrees. The death toll also rose with news that the heat had claimed the lives of "about 40" people in France. An estimated 10 people have died elsewhere in Europe. Temperatures were expected to peak Thursday or on Friday in France, Britain and Germany before cooling off around the weekend with stormy conditions expected in some areas. In Germany, navigation on the river Elbe in the north of the country was disrupted after water levels dropped below navigable levels. The water was just 90cm deep in parts, four months after the river flooding its banks. Farmers in France, the Netherlands and Poland have already warned that the heat is set to reduce their harvests this year. In Britain the heatwave has already lasted 10 days in many parts of the country and it expected to produce higher temperatures mid-week.

U.S. - the first half of the year was the WARMEST ON RECORD for the United States. The average temperature for the 48 contiguous states from January through June recorded at 51.8 degrees Fahrenheit, or 3.4 degrees above average for the 20th century. This makes it the WARMEST SUCH PERIOD SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN at the National Climatic Data Center. Worldwide, it was the sixth warmest year-to-date since record keeping began in 1880.

Monday, July 24, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/23 -
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.8 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI
6.1 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.3 BANDA SEA

INDONESIA - Scientists have warned residents of the country's southern coasts to be alert to the danger of earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis due to seismic activity from ocean faults and plates. "We believe that faults along the line are 'queuing' to release their seismic power. We must anticipate the phenomenon." They identified Padang in West Sumatra, Bengkulu, the Sunda Strait between Lampung and Banten, the southern part of West Nusa Tenggara, Banda Island in Maluku, Sorong in Papua, Palu and Manado in Sulawesi as prone to quakes. "However, we, as well as not even one scientist around the globe, cannot predict where and when it would happen." Java, as well as part of Sumatra, have been rocked by a series of earthquakes following Monday's deadly tsunami that devastated the southern coast. The most recent earthquake hit Wednesday evening, with its epicenter in the Sunda Strait between Lampung on Sumatra's southern tip and Banten in western Java. The 6.2-magnitude quake was felt in Jakarta. In the case of the Sunda Strait, people should continue to be alert because although Wednesday's quake did not cause any damage or tsunamis, the areas were near the Sunda subduction zones, site of a convergence between a sinking plate and an overriding plate. Tectonic movements might follow a 30-year cycle, occurring in almost the same place as years previously. Because of the 2004 quake in Aceh and 2005 temblor in Nias, North Sumatra, they would likely experience similar activity in the next three decades. Major quakes as powerful as 9 on the Richter scale had occurred in 1833 and 1861 near Aceh and Nias, with epicenters near the one in 2004 and 2005.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane DANIEL was 1276 nmi ESE of Honolulu, HI. Daniel could still be a significant tropical cyclone in five days as it arrives in the Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical storm EMILIA was 187 nmi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon KAEMI was 313 nmi SSE of Taipei, Taiwan.

Typhoon Kaemi approached Taiwan, leading authorities to issue sea and land alerts, after bringing rains that shut Philippine financial markets. Kaemi is expected to hit the Chinese eastern provinces of Fujian or Zhejiang around Wednesday. It will be the fifth typhoon to hit China this year.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
JAPAN - Torrential rain continued to lash southern Kyushu on Sunday, SETTING RECORDS in places and causing mudslides and rivers to overflow in some areas. Kagoshima and Kumamoto prefectures were hit particularly hard, and authorities were trying to rescue trapped residents and restore utilities. According to the Fukuoka district meteorological observatory, between midnight Tuesday and 3 p.m. Sunday, total rainfall in Ebino, Miyazaki Prefecture, reached 1,264 millimeters--greatly exceeding the average total July rainfall of 827 millimeters. In the same period, 1,237 millimeters of rain drenched Satsumacho, Kagoshima Prefecture, while 900 millimeters fell in Kumamura, Kumamoto Prefecture. The seasonal rain front is expected to remain over northern Kyushu, with thunderstorms and heavy isolated showers forecast in the area until about noon today.

PHILIPPINES - The northern fringes of the metropolis of Manila is expected to go under water due to torrential rains and tidal surges in Manila Bay. The Camanava section [Caloocan City, Malabon City and Navotas] is expected to bear the brunt of the rainy season especially with water flowing inland. “What compounded the situation is the high tide this week and the continuous downpour.”

MAURITANIA - At least seven people were killed and 19 injured in severe storms and flooding that hit Mauritania at the weekend. The deaths occurred when high winds and flooding buffeted the town of Boutilimit, 150km inland from the coastal capital Nouakchott. Buildings were damaged in the town and surrounding villages.

ENGLAND - A ferocious storm swept the south coast on Saturday leaving chaos in its wake. The FREAK squall moved so quickly it turned day into night within seconds and caught thousands of sunbathers and scores of sailors by surprise. The thunder and lightning storm left roads and businesses flooded, blocked sewage drains, swept yachts crashing onto rocks and capsized smaller boats. It arrived off the Dorset coast at 11.30am on Saturday and took just 30 minutes to pass through the Bournemouth and Poole. Sailors reported the windspeed changing from a gentle 10mph to 55mph at a stroke. "I've never seen anything like it, it was like an eclipse and a monsoon rolled into one. One minute people were sunbathing on the sand and the next they were fleeing for cover, it was like a scene out of a disaster movie. " On the sea, coastguards were inundated with calls to capsized boats and vessels that had run aground in the storm.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
EUROPE - Much of Europe enjoyed a respite from the heatwave which has killed more than 30 people in recent days, but forecasters warned that scorching temperatures are set for a comeback in the week ahead. In France, which has been the worst hit country, accounting for 22 of Europe's 31 dead so far, most areas experienced a slight cooling. However, close to half the country's departments were placed on high alert for the coming week. The heatwave was spreading slowly towards the centre, the Paris region and eastwards of the capital, and also in the southwest, and France's biggest cities like Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Bordeaux were starting to wilt again. French forecasters said the heat would be worst on Tuesday and Wednesday. No cooling off is expected before Thursday. Peak temperatures will be up to 38 to 39C, and 36 to 37C in the southwest.

CALIFORNIA - sweltered again in a heat wave that has set records across the state and caused scattered power outages while St Louis and New York City struggled with outages that began last week. As of yesterday afternoon (local time), 100,000 homes and businesses were without power in California. Even in usual havens from the heat such as San Francisco, TEMPERATURES SOARED TO RECORDS on the weekend with the Bay City hitting 30c yesterday. In Woodland Hills in the Valley, the temperature today hit at least 37.7c for the 18th straight day. Temperatures were as high as 50C in Palm Springs.

TENNESSEE - Too hot to fish? It's rare here, but this past week, according to a fishing guide, the surface water temperature on Kentucky Lake pushed into the low 90s this week. It's the first time in 30 years of guiding he can remember the water temps being so high in mid-July.

Sunday, July 23, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/22 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION

7/21 -
None 5.0 or over.

CHINA - A moderate 5.1 earthquake in China's southwestern Yunnan province Saturday toppled scores of houses and killed at least 18 people. The quake, which struck a mountainous area close to the border with Sichuan province, injured 60 people.

INDONESIA - There is no let-up in alerts about possible further natural disasters in Indonesia, after a tsunami struck the areas of Cilacap and Pangandaran on Java island on July 17, and a strong tremor was recorded only two days later in Sunda Strait, west of the capital. Experts have warned residents of areas like Banten, Tangerang and Jakarta to be on “maximum alert” and on the lookout for potential danger. Sunda Strait near Jakarta, just shaken by a strong tremor, is at the centre of attention, but so far it has been spared by freak waves. In Sunda Strait, “there is a seismic threat on two fronts: on the one hand, there are tectonic movements in the ocean, and on the other, there is growing activity of the dangerous volcano of Krakatau mountain between Java and Sumatra.”

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - The death toll in the tsunami that struck the Indonesian island of Java has risen to more than 650. Around 100 new bodies have been found in recent days. More than 300 people are still missing after Monday's disaster.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Lava flow from the restive Mayon Volcano in the southern Luzon Albay has widened its course to another channel, threatening to inundate more towns during an impending major eruption. The diversion of Mayon's lava flow means more areas will be endangered in the permanent six-kilometre danger zone. Local government officials are thinking of increasing the danger zone to eight kilometres from the top of the volcano. Apart from lava flows, Mayon has emitted sulphur dioxide and has generated pyroclastic flows that produced ash columns for several days. Seismic networks have detected tremors from the depths of the mountain. (PHOTO)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane DANIEL was 1387 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm EMILIA was 129 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Typhoon KAEMI was 445 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.

Typhoon Kaemi is moving towards Taiwan. If the storm continues to move in its current northwest direction it could start affecting Taiwan from today onwards, CWB meteorologists said. Kaemi has been growing in intensity, posing an increasing threat to the island. The bureau also forecast afternoon thundershowers for mountainous areas and areas in central and southern Taiwan for next few days, amid hot weather.
PHILIPPINES - The weather bureau on Saturday raised public storm warning signal no. 1 over Isabela, Cagayan, and the Calayan and Batanes groups of islands. Typhoon Glenda (international name Kaemi) has slowed down but continues to threaten the Batanes group of islands. “This disturbance is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon which may bring moderate to heavy rains with occasional gusty winds over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Residents along the coastal areas under public storm warning signal 1 are advised to seek higher grounds due to big waves that will be generated by Typhoon Glenda.”

Jellyfish on the rise following Tropical storm Beryl - The recent storm may be to blame for an over-abundance of jellyfish in North Carolina waters. At least five people were stung at Carolina Beach on Wednesday and one person had to be hospitalized. A similar problem has arisen at Wrightsville Beach.

BILIS - The driving rain and sweeping winds of tropical storm Bilis have wreaked havoc in southern China, bringing the country's death toll to 482. Unusually strong monsoon rains have also pounded Japan and Korea, causing floods and landslides and killing 145 people over the past 10 days. Authorities said Bilis, which made landfall in China last Friday, has caused mass flooding and mudslides. During the past week, nearly three million people have fled their homes in southern China. Some 262,000 homes were destroyed and rail lines and highways were washed out. Residents who stayed behind struggled to find clean water as a heat wave settles over the region. In North and South Korea, authorities said floods and landslides have killed 129 people over the past week. Two key rice-producing provinces near the capital of Pyongyang could cause famine in North Korea. In Japan, about 200 millimetres of rain is expected on Saturday. Heavy rainfall in the country has caused floods and landslides in the country, killing 15 people. More typhoons or tropical rainstorms are expected to hit China this year, partly due to the warm ocean current in the northwestern Pacific and high temperatures in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, meteorologists have warned.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
NORTH KOREA - Hundreds are dead or missing in North Korea after days of heavy rain and entire villages have been swept away. Torrential rain has swept through the Korean Peninsula in recent days, causing flooding and landslides both sides of the border. This is the first confirmation from Pyongyang that the severe weather has led to human casualties. On Wednesday, state news agency KCNA said flooding had caused "tremendous" economic losses. Tens of thousands of houses have been destroyed and infrastructure such as roads and bridges has been badly hit, the agency said. The worst damage was in central and eastern parts of the country. South Korea has also been hit by the seasonal storms, with around 60 people dead or missing after days of rain.

JAPAN - Flooding and mudslides left three people dead Saturday after RECORD RAIN hit Kyushu, sending the rain-related death toll over the last week to 23 in nine prefectures. The Meteorological Agency issued alerts over possible "major disasters," referring to landslides and other problems in Kumamoto, Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures. Nine weather observation spots in Kagoshima, Kumamoto and Miyazaki prefectures in Kyushu recorded their MOST-EVER RAINFALL FOR A 24-HOUR PERIOD. In Akune, Kagoshima Prefecture, more than 540 mm of rain fell in the 24 hours to Saturday evening. The Meteorological Agency forecast that heavy rain would continue in the Kyushu region through today.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - The aftermath of last week’s storm has body shops along the Seacoast backed up until fall, after hail pummeled vehicles out of commission and into local garages for repairs. Body shops are dealing first with shattered windows and waterlogged interiors before moving on to those cars and trucks that need repairing or replacing roofs, hoods and trunks. “This was a mini disaster affecting a 5- to 10-mile area.” The average insurance claim was placed at $7,500. 35 to 40 percent of the vehicles would likely be total losses. The hail was described as tangerine- or baseball-sized, it had caused so many dents in some vehicles, it “just destroyed” their roofs and hoods. “We’re talking a hundred, two hundred hail dents. So many it just makes the roof or trunk or hood flimsy.”

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
CANADA - British Columbia baked on Saturday, and the sweltering temperatures are expected to return Sunday. Temperatures in parts of southern B.C. hit 42 C Saturday in THE MOST INTENSE HEAT WAVE IN ALMOST A DECADE.

EUROPE - A heatwave in France has probably killed more than 20 people, including a 15-month-old baby and the rest of Europe also sweltered with no sign of temperatures dropping. In the Netherlands, two people died of heatstroke earlier this week. Germany and Spain have each reported two deaths blamed on the punishing heat. Temperatures of well above 30C (86F) have been registered across Europe, prompting a series of health warnings. Italy's central regions of Liguria and parts of Umbria have been placed on the highest level of alert, with temperatures expected to reach 40C (104F) over the weekend. In Britain, a severe drought, said to be the WORST IN A CENTURY in the south of England, is making itself felt and temperatures hit a July record of 36.3 Celsius (97.3 Fahrenheit) earlier this week. British farmers have begun harvesting wheat fields early because of the dry weather. Forecasters have predicted another heatwave next week. In Croatia, the hot weather has been blamed for a series of fires that have destroyed hundreds of hectares of forest and woodland. Southern and western Bosnia have been hit by a series of fires as temperatures reached as high as 41 degrees.

U.S. - Severe heat across much of the US has claimed at least 22 lives around the country. At least 10 states have suffered heat-related deaths as a swathe of the US has sweltered above 38C (100F).
CALIFORNIA - The heat wave gripping Southern California intensified Saturday, with reports of power outages, RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES and surging energy demands. Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles hit 99 degrees Saturday - the HIGHEST EVER FOR THIS DAY - beating the high of 96 degrees set July 22, 1960. Burbank was sweltering by 3 p.m. with temperatures of 111 degrees, beating the July 22, 1980, record for this day of 100 degrees. In Woodland Hills, the high Saturday hit a crippling 116 degrees, matching the Aug. 24, 1985, record for the hottest day ever recorded there. Saturday marks the 17th day in a row that highs have exceeded 100 degrees in Woodland Hills and they are still looking at a very, very warm air mass. Last month was the second-hottest June ever recorded in downtown Los Angeles. It was hotter in 1981.
With San Jose extending its string of scorchers with a sixth consecutive day above 90 degrees Friday, the city needs only three more days to tie the steamiest streak of 90s in its history. And forecasters say it's an easy bet, with highs in the mid-90s expected through Monday. The RECORD HEAT WAVE comes two months after San Jose suffered through one of its coldest and rainiest Aprils ever. Friday, Moffett Field in Mountain View hit 90, breaking a decade-old record for that day. San Francisco International Airport also eclipsed a 52-year-old record with a high of 83. The UNUSUAL spike in humidity has made the heat index several degrees hotter than the actual temperature. The region is experiencing the high humidity because of the southeastern air flow. The monsoonal flow - which normally travels up from Mexico into the southwest's Four Corners region - has hammered the West.
SACRAMENTO - the "surge of monsoonal moisture" is hitting them from Mexico. That weather pattern usually strikes Arizona this time of year, leading to thunderstorms, but it has made its way north, resulting in frequent storms in the higher elevations east of Sacramento. It is "VERY RARE" for the monsoonal surge to reach them. The moisture in the air has led to humidity readings in Sacramento as high as 60 percent this week, an abnormality for a place known for its dry heat. The Sacramento heat wave seems tolerable compared to what's happening in other parts of the country: 570,000 homes and businesses in St. Louis were without power after destructive storms, a highway buckled from the heat near Oklahoma City, 28 deaths were blamed on the heat nationwide in the past week. While one heat wave does not prove the global warming argument, trends like this are "clearly an indication of climate change... It's the change in the long-term trends to watch. Certainly it's UNUSUAL to have high temperatures like this and it's certainly UNUSUAL for the whole country to be experiencing this."

OREGON - an "excessive heat warning" from the National Weather Service remains in effect for most of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Temperatures are nearing record levels - the all-time high for July 21 is 104, in 1938; and the record for July 22 is 100, in 1978. Friday afternoon the Govenor declared a state of emergency because RECORD HEAT LEVELS, RECORD LOW HUMIDITY and the forecast of dry lightning posed an imminent danger of wildfires. "An upper-level ridge of high pressure - a really strong one - has built up over us, moving basically from the southeast Nevada desert." The most UNUSUAL thing about the current hot snap is that it seems to be affecting almost the entire country - from the Northwest to New England, and all points south. "Usually someone's left out. And usually, that's us."

Friday, July 21, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/20 -
5.1 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

INDONESIA - Powerful aftershocks continued to rattle survivors of the Java coast earthquake and tsunami on Thursday, as rescue workers dug through the ruins and tended to the injured in a devastated Indonesian beach town. The tsunami death toll as of Thursday stood at 531.

VOLCANOES -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - More than 1000 people from three villages within the PNG province of West New Britain have now been evacuated after two volcanoes, dormant for more than 100 years, erupted. Those evacuated are now sheltering in care centres near the town of Bialla after Mount Karai and Mount Bamus began emitting vapour, ash and smoke in the past week. Earthquakes in the affected area, measuring between 1 and 5 on the Richter scale, were being felt every hour.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm BERYL was 119 nmi ESE of Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Hurricane DANIEL was 968 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon KAEMI was 632 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.

Tropical Storm Beryl is weakening as it makes an approach off the Massachusetts coast. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 miles per hour. Additional weakening is expected over the next several hours. Boaters and swimmers are being advised that Beryl could produce tides one-to-three feet above normal, with dangerous rip currents. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for southeastern Massachusetts.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
PENNSYLVANIA - Hundreds of thousands of people were left without power, some without a place to sleep, after severe thunderstorms, complete with gusting winds and hail storms, swept through Chester, Berks and Montgomery counties Tuesday night. It was THE WORST SUMMER STORM TO EVER HIT the PECO service territory. It left 15 percent of PECO’s customer base, or more than 365,000 customers without power - 219,000 of whom were still without power as of Wednesday afternoon. "What we were faced with, we basically had two storm systems that converged over our service area and created some extensive damages." They recorded 5,400 lightning strikes from 6 to 10 p.m. and winds up to 71 mph which resulted in fallen tree branches and downed power lines. Falling trees also caused two deaths in Chester County on Tuesday.

MISSOURI - A violent storm with winds reaching up to 128 kilometres per hour ripped through the American Midwest on Wednesday, leaving approximately 450,000 people in St. Louis without electricity. Temperatures soared to a scorching 38 C as city workers began to assess the considerable damage caused by the storm. "This is ONE OF THE WORST STORMS WE CAN ALL REMEMBER to hit the city of St. Louis in recent years." Violent winds carried a section of the airport roof from the main terminal and dropped it onto Interstate 70. The storm blew the windows out of a hotel and baseball stadium press box, injuring more than 30 people. Three St. Louis area buildings also partially collapsed in the storm. Heavy rain and hail also struck neighbouring Illinois. High winds and lightning downed power lines, leaving approximately 120,000 people in the state without power.

WISCONSIN - Heavy rains and damaging winds were accompanied by booming thunder and frequent lightning early Thursday morning throughout much of Green and Lafayette counties and southern Wisconsin. Throughout much of the rest of the state trees were uprooted as inches of rain and large hail fell early Thursday morning. The storms left thousands without power. At about 6:15 a.m., one man had two bolts of lightning strike in his front yard. "I saw a flash, and then it was really bizarre. There was a constant roar, and then a sudden bang that shook the whole house." He walked out his front door to discover two black burn marks in his yard with smoke rising from them. He checked one of the holes left by the lightning and discovered a small concretion. The other strike point had a similar orb in it. "It was hot to the touch, so I couldn't pick it up right away. They looked like two pieces of cement."

NEW ZEALAND - Yesterday's heavy rain, on already-saturated soils, flooded roads and pushed some rivers to alert levels. Yesterday's deluge brought down yet more landslips, causing road and rail delays. The ground had not dried out from recent heavy rains.
NEW ZEALAND - engineers and geologists are assessing the potential risk of a hillside collapsing onto a number of houses in the Wellington suburb of Eastbourne. Twenty five residents were evacuated from their homes Thursday night after bad weather caused concern the surrounding hill may give way. One house has already become a casualty slipping three metres down the hill. High winds and rain have also affected other parts of the lower North Island. Wairarapa has received an astonishing amount of rain this month. During July the region has had almost 300mm of rain, which is about a third of its annual rainfall. The heavy rain is causing heartache for farmers whose properties are already waterlogged and others whose farms are still underwater from the last flood.

SNOW / COLD -
Scientists are dismissing any link between weather extremes that have left New Zealanders shivering in a freezing winter and Europeans wilting in a summer heatwave. The MetService yesterday issued another severe-weather warning, with a polar blast likely to bring snow to sea level today, closing roads and putting stress on livestock. Authorities in Britain have taken the rare step of issuing a nationwide health warning as temperatures top 37deg – with 47deg on the London Underground on Wednesday. New Zealand scientists and weather forecasters say the climatic extremes are not connected, and Kiwis enduring bitterly cold winds and snow today are assured warmer weather is on the way. New Zealand had been hit by a "cluster" of weather events in the past month, but those conditions would not be sustained all winter. The cold snaps had been caused when high-pressure systems hovering near Tasmania had clashed with low-pressure systems sweeping in over the North Island. "There is no relation to what is happening in the northern hemisphere, and the hot summer in Europe doesn't mean a hot summer ahead for New Zealand...We are part of the Pacific weather pattern and that is what determines our weather. It simply can't be related to the northern hemisphere. The hot weather there is caused by anti-cyclones, not a mix of highs and lows."

Thursday, July 20, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/19 -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
6.0 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA
5.8 NEW BRITAIN
6.4 NEW BRITAIN
5.2 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.0 NEAR COAST NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.3 QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BISMARCK SEA

Embarassed US scientists are revising earthquake analysis procedures after an inexperienced overnight team failed to quickly review the major earthquake that caused the tsunami which killed more than 550 in Indonesia. The United States Geological Survey typically provides very quick, accurate data on earthquakes worldwide, but on Monday took six hours before they gave the accurate 7.7 magnitude for the quake that hit 345km south of Jakarta. A scientist is supposed to review the automated findings manually within 10 minutes, but in the early morning hours between Sunday and Monday in Colorado that did not take place for an hour. It was six hours later when others started arriving during regular business hours that geologists calculated the Indonesia quake was actually a 7.7 - or three times larger in ground motion than a 7.2 and more than five times larger in terms of the amount of energy released.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Clouds of hot ash and lava flows from Mt. Karangetang volcano in North Sulawesi are adding to Indonesia's troubles with Mother Nature. On Tuesday thousands of villagers were fleeing their homes on Siau island amid new activity from Mt. Karangetang, which lasted erupted in 1940. Reports said the sounds of explosions, the spewing of ash and lava began last week. Authorities were monitoring the situation, but there was no information immediately available on whether a major eruption was likely.

ECUADOR - the Tungurahua Volcano, currently erupting in central Ecuador, has destroyed 19,000 hectares of farmland. The volcano, which is showering the region with ash and burning hot lava, entered a critical phase on Friday that might last for months or years. It has devastated villages that have maize, potato, cereal and livestock farms and it has affected more than 13,000 people.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm BERYL was 101 nmi ESE of Ocean City, Maryland.
Hurricane DANIEL was 909 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm KAEMI was 392 nmi W of Agana, Guam.

Tropical Storm Beryl did little more than churn up surf and clouds as it passed North Carolina, and similar conditions were expected as it headed north toward Massachusetts. Still, the National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a tropical storm watch for southeastern Massachusetts, from Plymouth south and west to Woods Hole, including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. The center said a tropical storm warning might be necessary for parts of the watch area later today. The storm was cruising roughly parallel to the East Coast, but the winds on the landward side of the storm didn't extend far enough from the center to be felt on the U.S. coast. At about 2 a.m. EDT, the storm's maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph, above the 39 mph threshold for a named storm but below hurricane strength of 74 mph.

KAEMI - the sixth storm of the Northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, developed into a tropical depression Tuesday southeast of Guam but is not expected to pose a threat to the island. “We don’t expect too much except gusty winds and heavy rain, local flooding in poor drainage areas." If it continues on its forecast track, the system next could approach Okinawa by the weekend. However, it is “too soon to say” if the storm will affect that island.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
CAMEROON - A landslide killed 4 people when it swept away a blockhouse. The landslide was due to heavy rains that fell Monday night.

NEPAL - At least three members of a family were killed when a landslide, triggered by incessant rainfall, buried their house in Taplejung district on Tuesday. At least five houses were swept away by a landslide at Olangchungola in the district Wednesday. That landslide area is still out of contact due to the remoteness of the village.

JAPAN - Mudslides and swelling rivers triggered by heavy rain led to seven deaths and at least eleven people missing in central and western Japan early Wednesday. Four people in Nagano Prefecture, two people in Shimane Prefecture, and one in Yamanashi Prefecture were reported dead in rain-triggered accidents. Three people in Nagano Prefecture, two people in Shimane Prefecture, two in Fukui Prefecture, two in Kyoto Prefecture, one in Okayama Prefecture and one Gifu Prefecture went missing. Heavy rain could cause more mudslides and floods in the central and western part of the country.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
EUROPE - governments scrambled to save lives in RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES to avoid a repeat of the catastrophic heatwave of 2003 that killed thousands of people. In Britain, temperatures hit an ALL-TIME HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF JULY, touching 36.3 deg C (96.6F) south of London to edge out the previous record set in 1911. The average temperature in southeastern England in July is 70 degrees. Germany's national meteorological service said July was on the way to being THE HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in many parts of the country. In France, an 85-year-old man admitted to hospital and an 81-year-old woman found dead in her home were the first people believed to have died there because of the heat. The searing heat and expected storms later in the week threatened to damage northern Europe's wheat crop just days before the harvest, especially hitting Germany and France. Electricity grids are straining. In Ireland, firefighters battled a gorse blaze close to a beach south of Dublin yesterday after temperatures pushed above 30C for THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A DECADE.

U.S. - The temperature was expected to top 100 in Arkansas, Nebraska and other parts of the Midwest and southern Plains each day through the end of the week. The soaring heat has already been blamed for 10 deaths from Oklahoma City to the Philadelphia area. "For it to be 100 degrees on the East Coast and 100 degrees in Salt Lake City, the widespread heat is what makes this particular hot spell UNUSUAL." Blasting air conditioners sent power consumption surging. Records were set all over the country.

EXTREME WEATHER SEASON -
HAWAII - Heavy winter rains that caused severe flooding in many areas are becoming a distant memory during what is shaping up to be a very dry summer. Rainfall totals show above-normal readings through the end of June, but most of the moisture arrived in the first part of the year. The National Weather Service characterized the recent weather as "a year of extremes." "In December, it was very, very dry, then it got very, very wet, and now it looks like we're headed for dry conditions again." "It's kind of cruel; it's either too much water or not enough." Although summer months are typically drier, "it's kind of UNUSUAL that we haven't had any rain whatsoever in a couple of months. It doesn't even keep the dust down." Kaua'i has seen three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall after the excessive rains of February and March that triggered fatal flooding in Kilauea. Even Mount Wai'ale'ale, considered one of the wettest places on the planet, collected less than half its normal precipitation for June.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/18 -
5.2 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS REGION
5.3 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI -
The death toll in the Indonesian tsunami rose to at least 340 yesterday, with more than 600 people injured, as rescue workers recovered bodies from coconut trees and the rubble of flattened homes. Many residents did not even feel the quake this time. As the sea receded, some escaped to higher ground. But others did not notice the warning sign, because the tide was already low. Alerts were issued by two regional monitoring centres but were not sent on to threatened communities, because the authorities did not want to cause unnecessary alarm. Indonesia has experienced a string of disasters since the 2004 tsunami, including an earthquake in May that claimed nearly 6,000 lives. Indonesians are calling their country "the disaster supermarket".
INDONESIA has installed a tsunami warning system across much of Sumatra island but not on Java where the 6-foot-high tsunami struck. There were regional bulletins about the 7.7-magnitude undersea earthquake, but they did not reach the nation's main island. A witness saw the ocean withdraw 500 yards from the beach a half-hour before the giant wave smashed to shore. "I could see fish jumping around on the ocean floor. Later I saw a wave like a black wall." Roads were blocked and power cut to much of the area. Damage and casualties were reported at several spots along the 110 miles of beach affected.

VOLCANOES -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - On July 13, the Rabaul Volcano Observatory reported a series of light to moderate earthquakes accompanying the FIRST HISTORICAL ERUPTION OF KARAI VOLCANO in Papua New Guinea. Frequent earthquake activity continues, with emissions from another volcano, Mt. Bamus, a volcano that has been inactive for more than 100 years, which began projecting a steam plume into the atmosphere. Continued earth tremors were felt within the vicinity of Kimbe and as far as Bialla and Mamota, a distance of approximately of 16 - 20km. The tremors continue to occur at five minute intervals. The affected population, estimated at 2,078 people, lives around the Kaiamu, Malasi, Sulu and Silali villages. These communities have moved out of danger areas in fear of an eruption and now live temporarily in six different informal camps. Recordings at Kaiamu on July 16 indicate heightened frequency and levels of seismic activity consisting of overlapping volcanic tectonic events. A few booming noises were heard on the 17th, but there have been no ash emissions during the last two days. The magma is as yet not connected to the surface via fractures or conduits. However, if the current level of seismic activity continues, an eruption is very much likely to occur.

ECUADOR - A two-year-old toddler is the first person to die from inhalation of ash spewed by the Tungurahua volcano. To date, 13,500 people have been affected by the expulsion of lava, ash and molten rocks from the mountain, whose activity increased last Friday. The reactivation of Tungurahua has also damaged local agriculture and cattle.

PHILIPPINES - Lava and rocks as big as cars rolled down Mt. Mayon yesterday, prompting officials to recommend that Albay be placed under a state of calamity and Malacañang to ask residents to leave immediately. Scientists also expanded the danger zone around the volcano to 6 km around the peak and 7 km around its southeastern slope, fearing an imminent explosion. They recorded 100 short-duration tremors in the past 24 hours, meaning magma was reaching the volcano’s summit. The magma caused lava and red-hot boulders to roll down the volcano’s slopes and then break up on impact. Lava has flowed 1,000 meters down the slopes while fragments of rolling incandescent boulders as big as cars have been observed at the Bonga gully about 3,000 meters above sea level.

ITALY - Mount Etna, the largest active volcano in Europe, threw fire and rocks more than 800ft into the air yesterday. Several villages lie on its lower slopes, but the Italian government said that the lava was flowing away from them, and that there was no immediate danger. The explosions are coming from two holes near to the top of the volcano, creating a lava field more than a mile long which is flowing at a rate faster than 90 cubic feet a minute. Even though the eruption has continued for three days, scientists said it had lost little of its force.

WASHINGTON - A magnitude 3.6 earthquake has shaken Mount St. Helens, one of the largest earthquakes recorded during the ongoing eruption. The 9:56 a.m. quake triggered significant rock falls from the lava dome and crater walls sending plumes of dust to the rim. Lava has continued to push into the crater - most recently forming a sheer rock fin - since the mountain reawakened with a drumfire of low-level seismic activity in September 2004.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 06W was 205 nmi SW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm BERYL was 134 nmi SE of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina.
Hurricane DANIEL was 801 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Beryl - A tropical storm watch was issued for the eastern coast of North Carolina. Tropical Storm Beryl is the second-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is expected to make its closest approach to North Carolina today and it was forecast to remain a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength.

CHINA - The death toll from tropical storm Bilis jumped to 198 after 10 more people were confirmed dead in southern China as the region braced for another onslaught of torrential rain on Monday. The new deaths were from Guangxi, where eight people were still missing. Heavy rains swept away houses and triggered devastating mudslides over the weekend after Bilis slammed ashore. The storm swelled reservoirs, causing them to overflow and sweep away thousands of homes and destroy crops. Train lines were inundated and mines were flooded with torrents of water.
NORTH KOREA - At least 100 people are believed dead or missing and 9000 are homeless after typhoon rains caused severe flooding and landslides in North Korea, wiping out whole villages. "In some remote areas, whole villages have been swept away and essential public services, such as healthcare clinics, have been destroyed. There has also been widespread damage to roads and bridges, which has left many people displaced or stranded." The typhoon, which first struck on July 14, has totally or partially destroyed over 11,500 houses. It has also destroyed out vast swathes of farmland.
PHILIPPINES - Forty landslides in Baguio at the height of Typhoon Florita (Bilis) may indicate a serious problem in the city’s geological structure. Originally built for more or less a population of 25,000, the day-time population of Baguio is pegged at more than 300,000 and increasing. Geo-hazard areas in Baguio are prone to landslide, flooding and ground subsidence, which usually occur during continuous rains or typhoons.

THUNDERSTORMS / HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING -
JAPAN - Heavy rain drenched wide areas of Japan on Monday, with downpours causing a mudslide and a train derailment in Shimane Prefecture and prompting Ishikawa Prefecture to order more than 10,000 people in Kaga to evacuate. In Unnan, Shimane Prefecture, heavy rain triggered a mudslide that crushed a home, burying two people. In Kaga, the front dumped 200 mm of rain from 6 a.m. Sunday to 7 a.m. Monday, threatening to cause the city's rivers to flood the surrounding areas. The seasonal rain front is engulfing large areas of the country, stretching from the eastern area surrounding Tokyo to the Hokuriku region to the Sanin coast in western Japan facing the Sea of Japan.

CANADA - Two people died, several were injured and thousands remained without power Tuesday evening after severe storms cut a wide swath of damage across eastern Ontario and Quebec late Monday. Thunder storms accompanied by high winds downed trees and hydro lines and blocked or washed out highways. Several communities declared states of emergency.

INDIA - Nagpur received a rainfall of 155 mm in three hours by Monday evening, second only to the 304 mm rains on July 14, 1994, and it amounted to 70 per cent of the average July rainfall. People residing in 70 low-lying localities were in panic, after water gushed into their homes and offices following the rains.

HEAT / WILDFIRES -
EUROPE - Much of Europe baked in tropical temperatures that climbed as high as 40C, in an increasingly dangerous heatwave blamed for at least four deaths since Sunday. Britain was braced for its HOTTEST DAY ON RECORD as forecasters predicted temperatures could reach 39C in parts of England. One death occurred in Spain, the other two deaths blamed on the oppressive heat were recorded in France.

Tuesday, July 18, 2006 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/17 -
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.9 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 JAWA, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.8 JAWA, INDONESIA
6.1 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.9 JAWA, INDONESIA
7.7 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.4 TONGA ISLANDS

Indonesian quakes continue today -
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI -
INDONESIA - The death toll from a tsunami that struck the Indonesian island of Java has risen to at least 245. About 450 people have been injured and 52,700 people have been displaced. Another 140 people are reported missing in the worst-hit area of Pangandaran. The tsunami was triggered by a 7.7 magnitude undersea earthquake that struck off Pangandaran on Monday afternoon, causing a 2m-high wave. At first light, rescuers were confronted with the sight of bodies in the branches of trees, and in the debris of smashed hotels and houses. One resident said high waves had destroyed hotels in Pangandaran and thrown boats onto the beach. Tremors from the earthquake were felt in the capital, Jakarta, for more than a minute, but there were no reports of damage or casualties there. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii had issued tsunami warnings for parts of Indonesia and Australia, and the Japan Meteorological Agency also warned of localised tsunamis. Police in Australia's Christmas Island reported a 60cm surge but no damage, while India authorities issued a tsunami warning for the Andaman and Nicobar islands, which are located west of Indonesia. But the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said on its website that based on historical and current data, "a more widespread tsunami threat probably does not exist".
Witnesses said "very many" flimsy homes along the coast for at least 20 miles in each direction had been destroyed as two waves, about seven metres (23ft) and two metres high, surged ashore. The water was reportedly waist-deep more than half a mile inland. Much damage was inflicted by hundreds of wooden fishing boats becoming battering rams as they ploughed through shacks and fields. Power failed and fixed phone lines were cut. Rescue teams said the toll was likely to rise significantly because they were still searching through rubble, many roads were impassable, many houses had been washed away and in pitch darkness it was difficult to see corpses.
"We all felt the quake, but the first we knew of the tsunami was a roar. When we looked up, we saw fishing boats sort of jumping in the air out in the bay...Boats were going down the street. There were about six waves. The second was the biggest and the locals said it was as high as the point, I guess about four or five metres."
Tsunami photos.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Red-hot lava poured down the slopes of Mayon Volcano accompanied by more tremors for the fourth straight day yesterday. A continuous stream of lava from Sunday night until early Monday and increased seismic activity indicated “heightened unrest of the volcano, which could lead to explosive eruption."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 06W was 266 nmi SSE of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm DANIEL was 668 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

ODD -
A puzzling, ominously named phenomenon, 'sudden wetland dieback', is transforming salt marshes in the New England region of the U.S. into barren mudflats, scientists say, and their best efforts have failed to figure out why. "It appears to us we have a new phenomenon we've never seen before." Across New England, researchers are poring over aerial photographs and slogging into mucky marshes on the lookout for ailing marshes, in hope of understanding its cause. Over the past five years, there have been reports of marshes that look as if they have been mowed . There are 17 suspected dieback marshes on Cape Cod, and a few other possible sites are on the North and South Shore. Dead patches are also visible on about two-thirds of Connecticut's shoreline. At least one report is from Rhode Island. Research so far has been a frustrating exercise in what scientists call forensic ecology: reconstructing what happened to portions of dead marsh and preparing for the ecological repercussions. "This great of an expanse of denuded salt marsh is not natural." The affected tidal marshes are one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. They are the basis of the food chain for many commercial fish species. They buffer the coast from storms. "People who have had long careers working in salt marshes, 40-odd years, think it's a VERY BIZARRE, UNPRECEDENTED phenomenon."