Featured Disasters From Previous Weeks

Wednesday, August 31, 2005 -
On this day -
In 1886, Charleston, South Carolina was the site of the first recorded earthquake in the eastern United States. Even now, the quake is considered one of the worst to hit the nation. It was estimated at 7.5 on the Richter scale and felt 800 miles away. Two shocks, eight minutes apart in the early morning, killed about 100 people.

QUAKES -
Quakes this morning - 5.1 HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN, REGION
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.8 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
4.8 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.9 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
4.9 WINDWARD ISLANDS
5.2 CENTRAL ALASKA

VOLCANO -
Salvadoran authorities activated emergency plans Tuesday as Ilamatepec volcano continued to spew gas and vapor in what experts said was a "significant increase" in activity. The renewed energy was first detected on Saturday, when experts witnessed 17 small earthquakes around the volcano. On Monday, scientists began to observe incandescent rocks in a 200-square-meter (2,150 square-foot) area near where columns of gas and vapor reached to 500 and 1,000 meters (1,640 feet to 3,280 feet). "The volcano is showing a significant increase in activity, both in the number of seismic events as well as in the amount of energy being liberated." All emergency agencies were on alert, both keeping people informed and preparing for the evacuation of 20,000 people who live nearby if the activity increases even more.

STORMS -
Helicopters plucked frantic survivors from rooftops of inundated homes and hundreds of people may have died in Hurricane Katrina's attack on the US Gulf Coast, which sent a wall of water into Mississippi and flooded New Orleans. The economic cost of the hurricane's rampage could be the highest in US history, currently estimated at $26 billion. "The devastation is greater than our worst fears. It's totally overwhelming." The storm inflicted catastrophic damage all along the coast as it slammed into Louisiana with 224km/h winds, then swept across Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

Flooding in New Orleans, most of which is already under water after Hurricane Katrina, was expected to worsen in some areas after an effort to plug a breach in a levee failed. 80% of the city is flooded and water levels began to rise around the city yesterday, a day after Hurricane Katrina struck, because of breaches in two levees. "We have canals that usually pull water out of the city and two of those canals have breaches. Water is pouring into those canals." Among the efforts being studied by US military engineers to plug the hole are dropping 1350kg sandbags from helicopters or shipping containers filled with sand.

The City of New Orleans is devastated. Those were the words of Mayor C. Ray Nagin. With the "major breach of a levee system, water is flowing into New Orleans, flooding it beyond recognition, and could very well destroy New Orleans, Jefferson and the surrounding areas." Tulane University said that they were about to move all of the patients from the hospital due to water rising at one inch every five minutes.

Oil companies scrambled planes and helicopters to inspect their assets and began ferrying some workers back to offshore facilities. Some found that a rig or platform had disappeared, drifted or listed; others reported minimal damage. Analysts said flooding could keep key refineries closed or operating below capacity for weeks. Former Mayor Marc Morial - "We've lost our city. ... I fear it's potentially like Pompeii." State officials have begun discussions of a "complete evacuation of New Orleans." It was unclear how much longer the Superdome stadium would hold up as a shelter. Bags of garbage and loose trash floated in water that had begun to lap at the sides of the Superdome yesterday afternoon. Sanitation facilities reportedly are no longer flushable due to the high water. "There's just a feeling in the air. People are in there, and they're stuck there, and they're just going insane."

Two months ago, Sen. Mary Landrieu told an audience of congressional staffers and scientific experts the federal government needs to spend billions of dollars over the next two decades to restore her state's wetlands. She warned that intentional rerouting of the Mississippi River over the past century, coupled with rising sea levels due to climate change, had eroded Louisiana's natural buffer against massive storms. "This is not Disneyland. This is the real deal," Landrieu said, referring to New Orleans's vulnerability to hurricanes. "The French Quarter could be under 18 feet of water. It would be lost forever."

The safest and the least safe places in the U.S. "Every location in the country is exposed to one disaster or another." Still, some places are less susceptible than others to natural hazards.

Residents in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are being warned to take precautions, with concerns that tropical storm Nabi could intensify and become a typhoon tonight ( number 14). . Saipan and most Northern Mariana islands are likely to bear the brunt of the storm. Guam is also expected to have heavy rains and severe weather conditions in the next few days.

Taiwan has warned of flash floods and landslides as Typhoon Talim heads for the island, with heavy rain and strong winds forcing some schools and offices to close. The full force of the storm was projected to hit Taiwan late today or early tomorrow morning.

Floods caused by weeks of heavy rain have killed 28 people and left four missing in central China. Rainstorms have lashed Shiyan city in Hubei province every day since August 14, sparking huge floods that cut off power, roads and communications and inundated crops. The weeks of rain in Shiyan have caused several mudslides, and potential mountain torrents threaten nearly 800 mountainside households. Floods across China this northern summer have killed at least 1024 people and left 293 missing. Nearly 900,000 houses and 10m hectares of farmland have been destroyed nationwide so far this year. China's flood season is nearing its end, but southeastern provinces have been told to brace for approaching Typhoon Talim. Tailm was generated Saturday in the Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines. Some meteorologists say that Talim may bring destruction as serious as that caused by Typhoon Haitang, a weather disaster that ravaged east China's Fujian and Zhejiang provinces last July. (SITE NOTE - if you are superstitious - Talim is their 13th typhoon of the season. Katrina was our unlucky 13th tropical storm of the season.)

Wild winds uprooted trees and caused widespread blackouts in Adelaide overnight, with the damage bill for South Australia's electricity transmission system alone expected to top $1.5 million. The local power company described the storms as "ONE OF THE MOST EXTENSIVE AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS" IN ITS HISTORY.
A number of fires were caused by lightning. Parts of regional Victoria reported spectacular lightning displays.

One person is missing and a town is under water after storms dumped up to 240mm of rain on northern Tasmania. The riverside town of Deloraine, east of Launceston, was under water today following the WORST FLOOD TO HIT THE REGION IN EIGHT YEARS. The Bureau of Meteorology released floodwatch alerts yesterday afternoon but said the downpour was heavier than anyone could have imagined. "The totals just floored us." The highest rainfall overnight was in the Breona area, at the north end of the Great Lake – 240mm in 24 hours. The damage will delay harvests and further drive up farming costs. Tasmania's winter weather has been "terribly varied". Average temperatures had produced ONE OF THE WARMEST WINTERS ON RECORD. Even so, the lowest maximum temperature was recorded at Mount Wellington on August 11 – the mercury did not rise above -5C all day. "There's very little pattern to it."

In Wichita, Kansas, a deluge on Sunday evening pushed this summer's total rain to 23.61 inches, trumping a record from 1950. The rain officially made 2005 THE WETTEST SUMMER FOR THE CITY SINCE RECORDS WERE FIRST KEPT IN 1888. Up to four inches of rain fell in parts of western Sedgwick County on Sunday night, flooding roads and ditches. The storm "just sat there for a while because of the weak winds aloft." There was enough energy and moisture to build the storms, but not to move them very far. The storms knocked out the radar at the Wichita National Weather Service office. The long-range forecast calls for above-normal precipitation from October through December. If that proves true, Wichita could well break the record for wettest year ever: 50.48 inches in 1951. With even average rainfall the rest of the year, Wichita will crack the top 10. The 11.96 inches of rain recorded at the airport so far this month shattered the old August record of 8.86 inches in 1985. There have been 15 days this month on which at least a trace of rain fell, and eight days with at least an inch of rain. The city of El Dorado recorded almost 10 inches of rain from a single storm last week. "How often do you see it this green in late August?"

Continuing heavy rains and unusual weather conditions in Papua New Guinea have been blamed for the latest damage to roads, bridges, homes and food gardens. Key infrastructure and beach hotels in the Morobe and Madang provinces are the latest to be affected by the king tides and flooding. Gulf and Western provinces, as well as Bougainville, have also been subject to damaging weather.

The current year will be a RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR TORNADOS IN FINLAND. The Finnish Meteorological Institute has already recorded some 40 occurrences of twisters so far. In comparison, the year 1997 was the previous record year with 19 tornados. The weather in July and August was humid enough to create tornado conditions, and moreover, turbulent flows were typical in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Historically, this was the first time when a tornado hit the center of an urban residential area in Finland. Even though it is exceptional, it is likely that the same thunder-cloud or another cloud belonging to the same storm front was behind both a mini-tornado in Helsinki and a twister in Kirkkonummi. Such local tornados will not necessarily become common or permanent features of the climate.

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -
Scientists are examining a mystery breed of moth converging on South Australia in huge numbers. The moths have been reported in large numbers in different areas of the state, including metropolitan Adelaide. Entomologists say the moths have distinctive marks distinguishing them from known pest species. "It is a rare event to see such large numbers." Entomologists were reviewing literature to support their suspicion that the moths were lesser budworms, which breed on desert daisies after inland rains.

METEORITES -
People in a remote northern Zimbabwe village are living in fear after a meteorite plunged through the atmosphere last week and landed in a field. "The villagers heard some noise, which resembled that of a helicopter, coming from the eastern direction and the noise was followed by clouds of dust." The meteorite, measuring 21cm by 13cm and weighing around 4kg, left a 15cm crater when it plunged into a field not far from Chaworeka village. It was described as black in colour with white particles inside.
SITE NOTE - an increased number of meteorite strikes were reported in the months just before the Indonesian tsunami. The last one reported then was a large one that apparently landed in the ocean off the coast of Sumatra just days before the quake and tsunami.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005 -

On this day -
In 1979 – Hurricane David devastated the Caribbean island of Dominica on a path through the Caribbean and the eastern US seaboard that claimed 1,100 lives.

Quakes this morning -
5.3 CENTRAL ALASKA
Two earthquakes measuring 5.2 and 4.6 on the Richter scale rocked Taiwan today, but there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.3 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N. COAST OF IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 ANDAMAN ISLANDS,INDIA, REG

VOLCANO -
The Marum volcano on Ambrym has almost stopped for several days. A villager returned from the volcano with bizarre news. There were no longer explosions and the higher part of the crater had fallen in, leaving a wave motion on the surface, fumaroles and an acidic smell. "Marum seems to draw back on itself. Only the wave motion and the fumaroles suggest a volcano. " At the place he stopped they could hear subterranean explosions, resulting in jolts. "We were certain something strange was going on there. One thinks that Marum could explode elsewhere, not far from the actual crater. " He refuted information published in the Daily Post that a new volcano had opened up between Marum and Benbow.

Barren Island Volcano erupted on August 24, sending a plume of ash eastward over the Andaman Sea.

STORMS -
Tropical activity - today at 00:00 UT
Tropical depression 13 was 617 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados. The system has become disorganized and remnants of the depression are being monitored for signs of regeneration.
Tropical storm KATRINA was 171 nmi N of Mobile, AL and 187 nmi N of Biloxi, Mississippi.
Tropical storm NABI was 268 nmi E of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.
Tphoon TALIM was 499 nmi ESE of Taipei, Taiwan.

Hurricane Katrina has unleashed howling winds and heavy rain upon southern coastal areas of the United States. The storm has wrought extensive damage in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, where it swept ashore after moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Katrina submerged areas of New Orleans and tore off part of the roof of a stadium where many had sought refuge. But it weakened after making landfall and spared the low-lying city a direct hit, despite frightening predictions. Walls of water have been running down the skyscrapers like waterfalls. Power lines have been cut, palm trees have been felled, shops wrecked and cars hurled across streets strewn with shattered glass. There are reports that some water had breached the defences. "This city is under siege." The city of Mobile in Alabama showed water surging through the streets. The storm spurred a 22-ft (7m) surge on Mississippi's coast. "This is a devastating hit - we've got boats that have gone into buildings" in Gulfport.

Katrina killed at least 54 people in the southern US state of Mississippi, a Mississippi newspaper reported today.

Katrina Blog - Officials say it could be a month before power is restored to the New Orleans area. The storm hit Mississippi "like a ton of bricks." It brought a 22-foot storm surge, blew out the windows of a hospital, and left sailboats on a four-lane highway.

Hurricane stories - In New Orleans, a large section of the vital 17th Street Canal levee, gave way late Monday morning in Bucktown after Katrina’s fiercest winds were well north. As night fell on a devastated region, the water was still rising in the city, and nobody was willing to predict when it would stop. Dozens of residents evacuated to the dry land of a bridge over the Marconi Canal were stranded between the flooded neighborhood on their right, and the flooded City Park on their left.

High winds swept across Victoria, Australia yesterday resulting in fallen trees and damaged roofing. Emergency cews were gearing up for another busy day with further windy weather forecast. "The weather bureau has forecast more strong winds today as well as the likelihood of consistent rainfall and that is a combination that has the potential for significant storm damage." The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the central, north-central and alpine districts and elevated areas of the north-eastern district, with wind gusts up to 100km/h.

In the Philippines, South Cotabato officials raised the alert for possible flashfloods and landslides in several parts of the province due to the continuing heavy rains over the last few days. Residents, especially those located near the province's major river systems and areas previously hit by landslides, were advised to take the necessary precautionary measures or evacuate to safer grounds. "The water level in our rivers is continuously rising."

A mini-tornado swept across the Tali golf course in Helsinki, Finland bringing an event on the Women's European Tour circuit to a catastrophic end on Sunday morning. The violent gust flattened and blew away a hospitality tent that was packed with people, including some of the players, after play had just been suspended owing to heavy rain. The mini-tornado had struck suddenly and quite without warning. The organisers had paid close attention to the weather forecast in the early morning, and that there had been no indication of storm-force winds. The police are looking at the incident as an accident and a freak of nature. A number of eye-witnesses reported having seen the mini-tornado, and they described a black whirlwind effect that looked like a comic-strip. Some spoke of hearing a whistling, rattling noise as the tornado passed by. In addition to the damage in Tali, numerous trees were felled in other districts of Helsinki as the twister swept past. Not long before the incident at the golf course, hundreds of trees were toppled to the west of the area, apparently by a similar tornado. Electricity lines were brought down by the falling trees and roads were also blocked off.
An exceptionally powerful storm had swept across southern and western Finland on Friday evening disrupting train transport and cutting off electricity supplies to customers. The storm front came from the southwest and swept across Finland causing major disruption to electricity supplies.

HIGH TIDES -
Madang town was hit by unusual king tides, destroying property and some landmarks along the coastline yesterday evening. Madang Regional MP was visibly distraught about the damage being done and what may have happened to the villages along the coastline. The sea began to get rough at 4pm. The seawater and waves began rising early in the afternoon. Between 7.30 pm and 9.30pm the abnormally high waves were still pounding on the beachfront. The Melanesian Discover cruise ship was in the waters between Madang and Lae, en route to Milne Bay and no one is sure of its fate. No one had ever seen waves as high in Madang. The seawater was rising over two metres above the normal level as indicated by the National Weather Service.



WINTER FORECAST -
The Farmers' Almanac warns that the coming winter will bring unusually sharp fluctuations in temperature, and says readers "may be reminded of riding a roller, or in this case, 'polar' coaster." "Mother Nature seems to be in the mood for some amusement this winter season," the almanac said in its 2006 edition, just off the presses. The coldest weather will be in the Northeast, which also will get plenty of snow. It predicts cold weather for the South and Mid-Atlantic regions and snowy but mild weather in the Great Lakes and Midwest. Parts of the Rockies and the Great Plains may have drier-than-normal weather, adding to the area's continuing drought, but wetter-than-normal weather is predicted for the Pacific Northwest and lower Texas. The forecasts are prepared two years in advance using a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon. The almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac 24 years its senior, claims a circulation of nearly 5 million.

WILDFIRES -
Hundreds of firefighters battled to contain Sunday at least three major blazes across California that had burned through thousands of acres and destroyed more than two dozen buildings. The lack of lightning this summer is likely a big reason why they have had so few wildfires before this.

DROUGHT -
A lingering drought that stymied Illinois' grain crop has helped wetlands thrive along the Illinois River and that could mean bigger flocks of waterfowl during hunting season. Wetland plants that drown in standing water during typical summers have flourished during the state's sixth-driest March through July on record, providing food for migrating ducks, geese and other waterfowl. Wetlands need to dry out periodically to give root to native plants. The state's worst drought since 1988 has kept the river in its banks, creating THE BEST WETLAND GROWING CONDITIONS IN NEARLY A DECADE. "It looks like a prairie, not a mud hole."

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -
Researchers surveying migrating humpback whales have found a number of different species of the great mammals usually rarely seen in Australia's east coast waters. The survey, which had so far tracked the northern humpback migration, had found more sightings of other whales not normally sighted off the east coast. "There's been quite a lot of different species seen in the last 10 to 12 weeks. All of the species seen have been seen in this area before but [previously] they have been pretty few and far between and certainly not every year." As well as humpbacks, researchers have also observed a pod of 60 to 70 false killer whales, along with dwarf minke whales, Bryde's whales and an unconfirmed sighting of a southern right whale. Researchers could not confirm whether the diversity of whales was a continuing trend "but we seem to be getting a lot for some reason". General trends had shown that humpback numbers were generally increasing with an estimation of 6500 migrating up and down the east coast. The survey also found the timing of the northern migration was later than what was considered normal for eastern Australia. This also was consistent with reports from New Zealand, Western Australian and South Africa. The most likely reason for the delay were the conditions in the Antarctic. "It could be the movement of prey."

Monday, August 29, 2005 -

QUAKES -
This morning - 4.8 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
4.8 NEPAL
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
4.9 WESTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
4.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

(Reprinting an article posted before) Watch out New Madrid quake zone? - Hurricanes can trigger swarms of weak earthquakes and even set the Earth vibrating. When Hurricane Charley slammed into Florida in August 2004, a seismometer recorded a series of "micro-tremors" from the Earth's crust. This happened again as the storm moved back out to sea. Then, as Charley grazed the continental shelf on its way out, it caused a sharp seismic spike. "I suspect the storm triggered a subterranean landslide." More surprisingly, the storm also caused the Earth to vibrate. The planet's surface in the vicinity of the hurricane started moving up and down at several frequencies ranging from 0.9 to 3 millihertz.

STORMS -
Tropical activity -
Tropical depression Thirteen has formed in the Atlantic and is forecast to slowly strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
Tropical depression 14W in the Pacific was 448 nmi E of Saipan, N. Mariana Is. and 508 nmi ENE of Guam.
At 6am CST Katrina had just made landfall. Currently the center is passing about 70 miles south-east of New Orleans. This is good news as the east side of the system is traditionally the strongest and the west side of Katrina is weakening due to the influx of dry air from over Texas. Mississippi may get the strongest of the winds. The storm surge will likely be less of a problem in New Orleans than expected, but the winds and rain will cause much damage. Power is reported out in some areas of the city. The Superdome is reported to be leaking heavily, like a waterfall from the roof.

Observations suggest that there may be some weakening of Katrina before she makes landfall. But she is still expected to be of at least category four intensity when she reaches the coast. Current erosion of the eyewall is generally accompanied by a broadening of the wind field, so that even as Katrina weakens there could be an increase in the area that experiences major hurrican force winds. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR. THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY HURRICANE! BY 24 HOURS THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTS OUT THE SYSTEM AND TRANSITIONS IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

The US National Hurricane Centre has described Katrina as a "perfect" hurricane. Katrina had a central pressure – a measure of a storm's intensity – of 904 millibars, which would make it ONE OF THE FOUR STRONGEST STORMS ON RECORD. US President George W. Bush declared an emergency in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and a major disaster in Florida. New Orleans has not been hit directly by a hurricane since 1965 when Hurricane Betsy blew in, flooding the city and killing about 75 people. The last category five to strike the area was Hurricane Camille in 1969, which just missed New Orleans but devastated parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama, and killed more than 250 people.

When Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans on Monday, it could turn one of America's most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city's legendary cemeteries. Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm. The hurricane has the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal,and threatens an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless. "All indications are that this [will be the] absolutely worst-case scenario." By Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet. Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. "We're talking about in essence having in the continental United States a refugee camp of a million people." Wind engineers have little idea what their equipment would record. "We haven't seen something this big since we started the program" seven years ago. Experts have warned about New Orleans' vulnerability for years, chiefly because Louisiana has lost more than a million acres of coastal wetlands in the past seven decades. The ring of high levees around New Orleans, designed to protect the city from floodwaters coming down the Mississippi, will only make things worse in a powerful hurricane. Katrina is expected to push a 28-foot storm surge against the levees. Even if they hold, water will pour over their tops and begin filling the city as if it were a sinking canoe. After the storm passes, the water will have nowhere to go. In a few days emergency management officials are going to be wondering how to handle a giant stagnant pond contaminated with building debris, coffins, sewage and other hazardous materials.

Sobering NOAA government description of likely damage in the New Orleans area.

New Orleans - "The scene here looks like something from the apocalypse. People are running around the city, terrified about what to do. Those who are leaving have clogged the roadways so extensively that little hope remains for those who have not yet decided to leave. Gas stations are breeding grounds for fighting and riots, as people are resorting to a state of martial law in order to get the precious gasoline they need to move their vehicles. This truly is the worst part of the storm and it only looks to get worse. God be with everyone who is trying to escape the madness."
"This happened so fast. Most people were doing their normal Friday routines, with an eye on the hurricane as it left Florida. But the weather patterns were already lining up to steer the hurricane right up the lane for a ten-pin strike in New Orleans. Saturday morning, everything had changed...."

Clever article about conditions in Florida since Katrina hit there earlier. "What unspeakable moron ever declared South Florida habitable by human beings? Because, as hundreds of thousands of us can tell you this morning, it's not - not without electricity... South Florida drops the mask and shows its true self: a slithering, primordial hellhole of predatory insects, crippling humidity and demonic heat."

Typhoon Talim has picked up strength and will peripherally affect Taiwan's weather conditions beginning Wednesday. Talim, located northwest of Guam and 1,500 kilometers off the shores of Taiwan at 8 p.m. yesterday, was moving west-northwest at a speed of 22 km per hour. The radius of the medium-scale typhoon has expanded to about 200 km with strong wind speeds as high as 75 km per hour. Officials said it is still too early to say if the 13th typhoon of this year in the region will directly hit Taiwan. If Talim maintains its current course, residents in Taiwan should prepare for the attack of another typhoon from Wednesday and the later half of the week.

TSUNAMI -
The March earthquake in Indonesia heaved much of the island of Simuelue 5 feet higher above the ocean, dramatically altering the contours of the land and exposing vast coral reefs and broad swaths of seafloor. It looked to the islanders as though the ocean had receded again, so they raced back to the lush jungle hills. Five months later, many are still waiting for a tsunami that has not come. They have refused to return home and instead have settled on higher ground in tents and clapboard shanties fashioned from salvaged bits of their old lives.

DROUGHT / HEAT -
The global area affected by drought has doubled. Earth was 10% to 15% in drought in the 1970s; by 2002, the figure had risen to about 30%. Widespread drying has occurred across much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and southern Africa and eastern Australia. The European Commission is forecasting this year's cereal crop to be down 10%, because of dry conditions and high temperatures. Irrigation restrictions will reduce sugar beet and potato crops. A general drying trend began in the '70s. "What has happened is there is a bit more precipitation going on over ocean than over land, so there is a redistribution." Global warming cannot be blamed for causing droughts. "But what it is doing is making them a bit more intense, longer lasting, the heatwaves a bit greater, so it is exacerbating the conditions that might have occurred anyway." Drought is the most damaging of all natural disasters. Each year it causes millions of deaths and costs billions of dollars in damages.

Unseasonal warm weather in New Zealand this month has caused extra grass growth. Typical Waikato farms are producing up to 60 kilos of dry matter per day per hectare - three times the rate of this time last year. Milk production in the South Island is up by a quarter on last year's rate. Usually this time of the year cows are eating the grass faster than it can grow.

WILDFIRES -
Firefighters ordered the evacuation of a small Northern California community as a 2,300 acre wildfire approached the outskirts of Manton. The fire started Friday afternoon about 220 miles Northeast of the Bay Area and was spread by high winds. The flames have already destroyed at least 30 buildings.
High winds continue to cause problems for firefighters in the Tahoe National Forest. That fire has been burning since Wednesday north of Lake Tahoe. The fire has already blackened about 2,200 acres.

SPACE WEATHER -
Dust from asteroids entering the atmosphere may influence Earth's weather more than previously believed, researchers have reported.

Sunday, August 28, 2005 -
AT 1 AM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA APPROXIMATELY 135 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WINDS OF 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SQUALLS AS THEY MOVE INLAND THROUGH 2 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH THROUGH 2 AM.

Past and current storm damage senarios for New Orleans.

On this day in 1973 – Earthquake hits area southwest of Mexico City, killing 500 people and injuring 1,000 others.

QUAKES -
Quakes this morning - 4.9 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.5 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA, REG
4.9 WESTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.6 SOUTH OF PANAMA
4.9 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
5.1 TIMOR, INDONESIA, REGION
5.5 VANUATU ISLANDS
5.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

VOLCANO -
The current eruption at Kilauea volcano in Hawaii is THE LARGEST ON THE EAST RIFT ZONE OF THE VOLCANO IN 500 YEARS.
An unconfirmed report has been received about an eruption of Kelut volcano in Indonesia. A pilot reported an eruption plume, but no ash is visible on satellite images.
A 5.5 earthquake hit near Gaua volcano in Vanuatu.Gaua has been hit by a number of earthquakes this year and is considered a potential eruption risk.

STORMS
KATRINA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, POSSIBLY UP TO CATEGORY 5. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER, INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS, LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET, ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW LARGER. KATRINA WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL AND WILL AFFECT A LARGE AREA BOTH AT THE COAST AND WELL INLAND.

Forecasters are predicting Katrina will hit southeastern New Orleans by midday Monday. About 1.3 million people live in the greater New Orleans area. Authorities were preparing to order an evacuation of all 485,000 residents of the low-lying city by early today, and were planning to open the massive Superdome sports stadium as an emergency shelter for those who cannot get out. The hurricane could be a disaster for New Orleans because the bowl-like city sits below sea-level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep the water out.

Katrina is still a puzzle - the storm grew out of the remnants of a tropical depression that never got its act together. Now it is speeding along when it was supposed to slow down and jogging south when it was supposed to head west. "The unique features of this storm are that first of all it went from nothing, a disturbance, not even a depression to a hurricane in two-and-a-half days. Then it moved southwest, which is unusual in that part of the world. And even though it was a Category 1, it did a lot of damage and the reason for that was that storm started to intensify pretty quickly as it approached shore." Hurricanes rarely move south. They are drawn to the north like metal to a magnet. But in an unusual event, a system of high pressure known as the Bermuda High pushed Katrina to the south. Katrina started out nearly two weeks ago as Tropical Depression 10, located hundreds of miles east of Antigua. Then it fizzled. Near the Bahamas, the system joined with another disturbance and gained strength. Hurricane forecasters debated whether it was still Tropical Depression 10 or a new storm. On Aug. 23, it became Tropical Depression 12. Forecasters thought Katrina would slow down considerably once it reached the Gulf Stream. It didn't. It kept moving at 6 to 8 mph. Usually the northern edge of hurricanes get the severe thunderstorms. Again, Katrina had a surprise. It was the southern edge that suffered most.

The track of Hurricane Katrina could prove disastrous for Middle Georgia. In a summer soaked by consistent rains and heavy downpours, the risk of flooding is extremely high from Katrina. "We're in for another heavy rain event and we just don't have any cushion." "It appears that Georgia will be on the eastern side of this hurricane, and that is the side that historically is the wettest and most prone to tornadoes and wind damage." To the north and west of Macon, soil moisture levels are running in the 99th percentile. That means in 99 out of 100 years, climatologists would expect soil levels to be drier than they are now. Even if Katrina bypasses the midstate, the risk of serious flooding lingers as the Atlantic hurricane season enters its peak. The 2005 hurricane season got off to a bang with a record five named storms in July, but most of this season's hurricanes are expected to occur in the coming weeks. The strongest storms on record traditionally formed between the end of August through the month of September, when conditions are prime for tropical storm formation.

UNUSUAL WEATHER -
The reason behind the mayhem in Europe is the jet stream. A few miles high in the sky, this wind races around the Earth like a river, reaching speeds of more than 200mph and travelling eastwards. Because the jet stream wobbles its track can make huge differences to the weather. For much of this summer the jet stream has steered close to the north of Britain, then dived down in a big loop into the southeast of Europe. This has sent a barrage of depressions into northwest Britain, and then Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia, with deluges of rain that have benighted the region almost all summer, since June. The unusual thing this year is how persistent the track of the jet stream has been in its sweep around Europe, locking high pressure over southwest Europe where it has created such an intense drought in Spain and Portugal since November. Unless the jet stream changes track, the outlook for Europe will be for similar conditions, for a few days or even several months.

Unusual rainfall in California on May 18, June 8 and June 16 has reduced the projected pear yield in Lake County to 55 percent of normal and much is of poor quality. "These rains were not only heavier than normal, but were unseasonable for that time of year." Hay and walnut crops were also affected. The walnut and hay yields are expected to be 59 percent and 66 percent of normal, respectively. Plus only 10 percent of the hay is the best quality. There is a shortage of pears nationwide. "This is about the sixth or seventh year that has not been good for the pear growers. This year is weather-related; the past years have been related to market conditions." There were several major frost events this year plus cold, scab and hail. "It's not good. The primary reason for crop reduction this year is the fact that pears need certain temperatures to set fruit. When they don't get that minimum temperature they don't set. They didn't get enough warm days to set." Odd weather has impacted other crops as well. "The weather affected anything that's going to grow. This year was very unusual for weather." Grapes have had no problems, but most crops have been affected by the odd weather. "Vegetables as a whole are delayed this year."

Unusual weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean may be causing two migratory fish to skip their annual summer visit to the Central Coast of California. Albacore, a popular summertime offering in fish markets, are all but absent. Coastal authorities are also reporting fewer shark sightings. "This is an oddball year, all around". Great white sharks and albacore tuna make huge annual migrations through the Pacific Ocean. Summer is when they pass the Central Coast. Most striking is the absence of albacore, which usually start arriving in June. Their numbers fluctuate from year to year, but this year albacore are almost entirely avoiding California waters. In Southern California, entire fishing fleets are tied up to the docks because they can't find albacore. Only Mexico and Oregon report good albacore fishing. Less easy to explain are the drop in shark sightings. While there are fewer anchovies and other bait fish in the water, there are still plenty of seals, the main food for large white sharks. Weather conditions appear to be returning to their normal patterns as the summer draws to a close. "The ocean is a mysterious place. It changes from year to year."

Saturday, August 27, 2005 -
On this day -
In 1883 – The most powerful volcanic eruption ever recorded continues to blow apart Mount Krakatau in the Sunda Straits, Indonesia. Shock waves travel around the earth and tidal waves kill an estimated 36,000 people.
In 1900 – A devastating hurricane hits Galveston in Texas, killing more than 6,000 people.
In 1993 – A dam at the Gouhou reservoir in the western Chinese province of Qinghai bursts, releasing torrents of water that kill hundreds of people and destroy several villages.
In 2003 – Mars passes just 55.76 million km from Earth, making it the closest such encounter since the Stone Age.

QUAKES -

Quakes this morning - 5.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
5.3 TIMOR, INDONESIA, REGION
5.5 VANUATU ISLANDS

Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN BDR REG
6.2 EASTERN GULF OF ADEN
4.8 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA, REG
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
5.1 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
4.8 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.0 NEAR E.CST EASTERN HONSHU
5.4 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

STORMS -
Tropical activity -
Tropical storm TALIM was 225 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical storm MAWAR was 448 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm IRWIN was 341 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane KATRINA was 142 nmi NW of Havana, Cuba and 156 nmi W of Key West, Florida. Katrina is showing the typical pattern observed in INTENSE hurricanes and is forecast to move directly over the warm loop current of the Gulf of Mexico which is 'like adding high octane fuel to the fire.' She is now a Category 3 hurricane and has grown in size. Landfall is predicted bewteen the eastern coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi.

Typhoon No. 11(Mawar) was losing power and heading northeast in the Pacific Ocean on Friday after injuring several people and bringing RECORD WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL to parts of southern Kanto. The typhoon whipped up winds of 205 kph on Oshima island, south of Tokyo, at midnight, the strongest gusts recorded there since observations started in 1940. In Hakone in western Kanagawa Prefecture, 528 millimeters of rain was recorded Thursday, the largest amount on record since observations started there in 1976. The typhoon passed through the Miura Peninsula in Kanagawa Prefecture, and landed near Chiba city around 4:30 a.m. Friday. After crossing Chiba Prefecture, the storm re-entered the Pacific Ocean through Cape Inubosaki on the eastern tip of the prefecture.

Hurricane Katrina is on course to hit the US Gulf Coast, the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana, early on Monday, after pummelling southern Florida, leaving at least six dead and 1.4 million without power. Katrina's winds reached 100mph (160 km/h), and the hurricane is gathering strength as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico towards north-west Florida. The authorities said it would take days to restore power to those affected by the lashing winds and rain. Katrina was only a category 1 hurricane when it landed, but people were stunned by her ferocity and amount of rain in some areas. "Miami looks like a film set for a huge disaster movie." Forecasters have warned it could reach a dangerous category four, the second highest level. Katrina is the sixth deadly hurricane to hit Florida in a year. Thirteen years ago this week, the maximum-strength Category Five Hurricane Andrew, the most costly hurricane to hit the US, hit the same area of Florida.

Hurricane Katrina fooled everybody. It swung far south of where forecasters predicted; it didn’t weaken when it hit the east coast as much as expected; and it burst into the Gulf of Mexico almost 24 hours before it was supposed to. “It did a typical move, diving to the southwest as soon as it started hitting landfall. We’re not certain why that was, probably in response to a trough over the Caribbean. Our forecasters are saying that if we’d forecast that dive to the south, we would have been wrong 100 times and right once." The storm is now expected to move west, then swing to the northeast toward the Panhandle, well away from Southwest Florida. “It would take quite a bit to steer it toward you. I don’t see anything in the atmosphere that would make it do a U-turn. That would be a rare event.”

Several Grand Bahama businesses could not open their doors Thursday because heavy thunderstorms from Tropical Storm Katrina triggered a power outage lasting nearly half a day. Katrina also brought a lot of rain to Grand Bahama. On Wednesday, the total rainfall at Grand Bahama International Airport was 2.83 inches, and 3.73 inches on Thursday. The Meteorological Department said there were two other tropical systems in the Atlantic that the Department was watching. One is a large tropical wave north of Hispaniola that was seemingly breaking up but was still being monitored closely. Another system (low pressure area) is about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. That system is in an environment favourable for development into a tropical depression. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Lee.

Cities and towns across central Europe remain on alert as they deal with the impact of devastating floods which have killed at least 42 people. Evacuations from Alpine towns in Switzerland have been continuing, with hundreds taken to safety in Brienz. The Swiss capital Bern has also been hard hit by the flood water - with fears of further problems later. The authorities fear water from blockages upstream could be unleashed on areas where water is starting to recede. Forecasters warn there is still rain ahead, but it has eased in many places.

Heavy rain and flooding from a series of storms have killed up to 30 people in Mexico and left thousands homeless in coastal areas, with more rain forecast for the weekend. Rain from Tropical Storm Jose - the 10th of the season - has drenched Mexico's Gulf coast, forcing some 25,000 people from their homes in Veracruz state. Among the fatalities, seven people were killed in a landslide in a mountainous region of Veracruz.

Gale-force winds and driving rain have left several Eerste River, South Africa families homeless and caused minor flooding in many parts of the Peninsula as the predicted overnight storm raged through Cape Town. It had been "like a mini tornado sweeping through". Roads looked like rivers and people's houses had been flooded.

More than 400 villagers in Baokang County of central China's Hubei Province on Friday were evacuated, as their homes were under the threat of landslides. A week of heavy rainfall has soaked loose mantlerock-covered hills in many places in the county. Landslides in Huangtuling village on Thursday battered 102 houses and caused blackouts,and traffic and telecommunication interruption in four neighboring villages. There are still potential landslide dangers threatening the homes of over 300 people and a primary school in the village. Meanwhile, other areas threatened by landslides were found in Dongpo village, putting 155 local residents' homes at risk.

South Cotabato officials in the Philippines raised the alert for possible flashfloods and landslides in several parts of the province due to the continuing heavy rains over the last few days. "The water level in our rivers is continuously rising." Several towns have been swamped by floodwaters over the last three days.

A British climber has had her leg amputated after being buried by an avalanche in the Swiss Alps. Good weather had been predicted, but she was caught in a sudden snowstorm and took cover in a makeshift shelter for 2½ days, eating snow to survive. Then she was caught in the avalanche and swept 4,000ft down a mountain in a torrent of rocks and ice.. “The forecast was perfect weather so they went up. Then there was this freak snowstorm — snow in August is always going to be a freak occurence.”

FISH DIE-OFF
Miles and miles of dead fish are turning up in Texas waters and lining the coasts. From the sky, a sea of white is covering the mouth of the Colorado River. Upon closer look, you'll see dead fish – millions of them. The stunning images of devastation run for miles. It's one of the largest fish kills people in the town of Matagorda have seen in years. Surprisingly, this is a natural event caused by stagnant water and little wind, rain, or flow. "Millions of these menhaden come in from the Gulf into the Colorado River and because of low tidal action and low wind action, there's nothing to replenish the oxygen in the water." Back in 1995, there was a similar situation. Then 60 million fish turned up dead.

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