Rauf Ali

FERAL

Aurobrindavan

Auroville-605 101

The Andaman Trunk Road (ATR) was built in the 1980's to connect Port Blair with Mayabunder on Middle Andaman. The road is approximately 240 km long, and crosses South Andaman, Baratang and Middle Andaman islands. In two stretches: between Jirkatang and Middle Strait, and between Kadamtala and Bakultala, it crosses areas where the Jarawa tribe lives.

The road has become controversial in recent months because of the presence of the Jarawa tribe. This tribe was considered hostile until recently, and buses and trucks plying on this road carry an armed guard. This was to prevent Jarawa attacks on the tribe. In recent months, jarawas have started emerging from the forest onto the ATR, and are being fed both by the Adminstration and by passengers on the buses.

With going into the merits of the costs and benefits of integrating the Jaawas into the national mainstream, a few consequences of this increased contact are already apparent. The pressure for logging in the reserve is increasing, as well as the encroachment- it was fear of the tribals that had blocked this in the past. Contact has also brought the tribals in contact with diseases for whch they have no immunity: a recent epidemic of measles reportedly killed a large number of Jarawas. If the pattern followed by other formerly hostile tribes in the Andamans holds, the Jarawa could well be headed towards extinction. Closing the road would reduce the contact to a minimum that can be controlled.

On the other hand, the ATR is seen as a vital lifeline allowing movement of both passengers and cargo between Port Blair and Mayabunder, and points north of Mayabunder. At the present time no alternative is seen to the road, and even though maintenance costs Rs. 15-20 crores a year (for less than 1000 passengers a day), the Andaman Administration does not see any alternative to keep the road running.

In this paper I discuss one such alternative- the use of large powered catamarans.

The manufacture of commercial catamarans has recently started in India. The cost of these catamarans has dropped to Rs. 45 lakhs for a 30-seater boat, as opposed to the cost of rs. 90 lakhs for an imported one. The catamaran is powered by two 150-HP engines that run on kerosene. They have a top speed of 20 knots and a cruising speed of 15 knots, though this will reduce when the sea is choppy. The boats have a crew of 2, and each engine uses approximately 10 litres of fuel per hour. The sea distance between Port Blair and Mayabunder is approximately 80 knots, and should take 5 hours to cover- half the time the bus journey takes. The lifespan of each boat is 10 years, but in the analysis a conservative 7 years has been used. The price of kerosene is assumed to be Rs. 25/litre: this has deliberately been calculated on the high side to take into account any cost increases in the near future. It is assumed that a catamaran can make one round trip a day, and will be in use 300 days in a year- leaving enough time for maintenance and repair activities. The repair and maintenance are expected to cost about 3% of the overall cost of a catamaran, though if they are handled carefully the actual will be less. A 10% increase in crew costs and fuel costs annually are assumed: the actual increase will be less. The ticket cost would increase by 6% annually..

A sample calculation is given in Table 1. Setting the fare at Rs. 270 and assuming an average occupancy of 66%, the Internal Rate of Return is 17.8%

Figure 1 analyses the effects of occupancy on profitability. The operation will break even at a 61% occupancy. At higher occupancies the IRR will be much higher. At a ticket cost of Rs. 300, the breakeven is at 55%.

The cost of maintaining the road alone costs the Andaman & Nicobar Administration approximately Rs. 550 per passenger, even though the actual luxury bus ticket is only Rs. 110. This excludes the actual cost of running the buses. Even if it was decided to subsidise catamaran transport, the amounts involved would be muss lower. In this sense, catamaran transport makes very good economic sense.

The calculations have been done for one boat. A fleet of at least 15 would be required to cater to the passenger traffic: also, the movement of cargo needs to be considered as welll. Additional catamarans could also ply between Port Blair, Baratang, Kadamtala and Rangat, catering to the passengers in these intermediate sectors. Since no data on the passenger load is available for these sectors no calculation has been done.

Apart from the economic and tribal welfare aspects, the environmental benefits also would be important. Maintaining the road requires over 5000 cubic metres of wood, to heat the bitumen. This obviously comes from the forest. Added to this is the disturbance caused by a road through dense rain forest. Illicit logging and encroachments, which are also major issues in the area, will also be minimised.

In sum, switching to sea transport is a viable alternative to the ATR.