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KCFR 2009 FCS Forecast = posted July 24th (best view in medium text)
Teams are listed in order of predicted conference or division finish.
Ties are broken by head-to-head prediction where possible.
Power = 2009 pre-season power rating
O-adj = offensive adjustment to 2008 rating
D-adj = defensive adjustment to 2008 rating
Sched = average of opponent ratings with home/away adjust
Home = team's home field advantage
Conf = predicted conference W/L record
2009 = predicted overall W/L record
PSM = predicted average scoring margin all games
GWP = average percentage winning chance of each game
The conference & overall won-lost predictions are compiled by playing the Power & Home/Away
game by game vs the schedule.
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _BIG SKY____________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
76.07 1.57 -0.75 55.92 3.33 Montana ------------ 8-0 11-0 22.37 72%
70.83 2.08 -3.31 61.53 2.73 Weber State -------- 7-1 8-3 8.47 58%
65.48 2.14 0.55 58.78 2.73 Eastern Washington - 6-2 8-3 5.27 55%
62.47 -0.25 0.35 59.63 2.96 Montana State ------ 5-3 7-4 3.27 53%
55.47 2.17 -1.67 62.09 2.78 Sacramento State --- 4-4 4-7 -2.14 48%
57.86 -1.26 0.96 63.62 2.75 Northern Arizona --- 3-5 4-7 -6.70 43%
50.04 0.99 -0.77 61.62 2.64 Northern Colorado -- 2-6 3-8 -11.45 39%
51.39 0.95 -1.63 61.31 2.77 Portland State ----- 1-7 2-9 -9.35 41%
45.74 1.37 -2.37 65.40 2.70 Idaho State -------- 0-8 0-11 -21.05 29%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _BIG SOUTH__________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
59.09 0.36 2.80 49.56 2.67 Gardner-Webb ------- 5-1 8-3 8.67 59%
58.65 1.34 0.09 54.76 2.61 Stony Brook -------- 4-2 6-5 2.39 52%
59.44 -3.26 -2.75 53.68 2.95 Liberty ------------ 4-2 6-5 6.09 56%
58.12 1.01 1.53 52.97 2.73 Coastal Carolina --- 4-2 7-4 4.29 54%
56.29 4.12 3.51 52.94 2.72 V M I -------------- 3-3 5-6 2.79 53%
41.64 -1.07 -0.48 52.99 2.67 Presbyterian ------- 1-5 3-8 -12.04 38%
43.83 -2.01 -2.92 57.79 2.59 Charleston Southern- 0-6 2-9 -16.30 34%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _COLONIAL North_____ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
65.66 4.37 2.15 60.03 2.62 Hofstra ------------ 6-2 8-3 4.94 55%
66.10 -0.91 -0.57 61.81 2.93 Massachusetts ------ 5-3 7-4 4.51 55%
68.03 -0.93 2.02 56.05 2.77 New Hampshire ------ 4-4 6-5 12.23 62%
59.13 0.19 -3.42 60.63 2.66 Maine -------------- 3-5 4-7 -2.19 48%
50.01 -2.97 2.74 62.17 2.66 Rhode Island ------- 2-6 3-8 -13.03 37%
44.21 -5.00 1.15 63.65 2.59 Northeastern ------- 0-8 0-11 -19.42 31%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _COLONIAL South_____ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
81.05 1.23 3.22 61.14 2.75 Richmond ----------- 8-0 11-0 19.46 69%
79.64 3.30 0.61 59.27 2.73 Villanova ---------- 7-1 10-1 19.76 70%
73.68 -3.96 -3.06 64.36 3.03 James Madison ------ 6-2 8-3 8.47 58%
69.13 -1.35 1.45 60.65 2.83 William & Mary ----- 5-3 7-4 7.76 58%
49.20 -1.75 0.14 63.63 2.67 Towson ------------- 2-6 2-9 -15.10 35%
51.68 -3.60 -0.89 63.46 3.25 Delaware ----------- 0-8 2-9 -11.15 39%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _GREAT WEST_________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
70.56 -4.04 1.12 59.31 2.83 Cal Poly ----------- 4-0 7-4 10.29 60%
63.50 2.94 1.40 58.31 2.81 UC-Davis ----------- 3-1 7-4 4.08 54%
56.74 3.86 -0.74 50.21 2.76 South Dakota ------- 2-2 6-4 6.40 56%
48.74 -3.07 -0.37 57.00 2.66 Southern Utah ------ 1-3 2-9 -8.95 41%
44.20 -7.01 -0.81 59.76 2.85 North Dakota ------- 0-4 1-10 -16.47 34%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _IVY LEAGUE_________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
62.78 -1.49 -1.71 48.51 3.10 Harvard ------------ 7-0 9-1 14.46 64%
57.03 1.20 -1.98 50.89 2.89 Pennsylvania ------- 6-1 7-3 6.17 56%
53.46 -3.78 -2.66 49.86 2.74 Brown -------------- 5-2 6-4 3.56 54%
47.26 -2.04 -0.06 49.94 2.82 Princeton ---------- 4-3 4-6 -2.71 47%
46.79 3.15 0.47 49.24 2.63 Columbia ----------- 3-4 4-6 -2.46 48%
42.45 -3.37 -2.73 48.00 2.88 Yale --------------- 2-5 3-7 -5.43 45%
40.87 -5.75 -4.08 50.11 2.74 Cornell ------------ 1-6 1-9 -9.29 41%
30.38 1.05 -3.24 54.31 2.67 Dartmouth ---------- 0-7 0-10 -24.08 26%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _MID-EASTERN________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
62.30 1.23 0.20 48.62 3.14 South Carolina State 9-0 10-1 13.53 64%
61.14 5.41 2.70 47.51 3.00 Florida A&M -------- 8-1 9-2 12.87 63%
52.67 2.14 0.43 45.04 2.83 Hampton ------------ 7-2 9-2 8.18 58%
50.58 -0.66 -0.75 48.43 2.62 Morgan State ------- 6-3 7-4 2.41 52%
45.26 1.23 0.68 47.20 2.86 Norfolk State ------ 5-4 6-5 -0.90 49%
45.38 -1.88 -1.23 43.89 2.68 Bethune-Cookman ---- 4-5 6-5 1.48 51%
41.54 -3.15 -2.27 50.40 2.62 Delaware State ----- 2-7 2-8 -10.74 39%
39.46 4.05 2.29 48.30 2.63 Howard ------------- 2-7 3-8 -10.58 39%
36.33 0.27 3.21 48.40 2.67 Winston-Salem State 1-8 1-10 -12.15 38%
29.62 1.73 0.65 48.66 2.87 North Carolina A&T - 1-8 0-10 -20.13 30%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _MISSOURI VALLEY____ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
67.13 1.48 -3.29 54.21 2.92 Northern Iowa ------ 8-0 10-1 13.03 63%
68.10 0.50 2.80 50.84 2.81 Southern Illinois -- 7-1 9-2 16.58 67%
63.83 -2.47 2.41 56.96 2.84 South Dakota State - 6-2 7-4 6.15 56%
60.28 -0.77 -2.83 52.00 3.12 North Dakota State - 5-3 7-4 7.74 58%
55.64 -1.33 -1.26 55.49 2.83 Western Illinois --- 4-4 5-6 -0.56 49%
52.23 0.47 2.72 55.13 3.00 Youngstown State --- 3-5 5-6 -3.59 46%
46.95 -4.68 1.84 55.48 2.86 Illinois State ----- 2-6 3-8 -9.29 41%
39.93 -0.07 -1.41 57.85 2.81 Missouri State ----- 1-7 1-10 -17.83 32%
36.18 4.43 0.36 51.72 2.63 Indiana State ------ 0-8 1-10 -18.16 32%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _NORTHEAST__________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
57.52 1.35 1.28 43.50 2.60 Albany ------------- 8-0 9-2 13.41 63%
47.70 3.80 -0.08 42.27 2.64 Central Connecticut 7-1 7-4 3.97 54%
47.55 -0.82 0.86 40.34 2.59 Monmouth ----------- 6-2 7-4 6.59 57%
39.34 -0.36 3.24 41.50 2.56 Robert Morris ------ 5-3 6-5 -2.68 47%
40.45 0.24 4.03 42.73 2.62 Bryant ------------- 4-4 5-6 -2.74 47%
37.58 0.78 0.52 41.93 2.57 Sacred Heart ------- 3-5 4-6 -4.40 46%
32.99 3.25 -0.75 41.40 2.55 Duquesne ----------- 2-6 2-9 -8.91 41%
28.27 0.60 -2.25 37.47 2.54 Wagner ------------- 1-7 3-8 -9.77 40%
27.74 4.92 1.40 45.26 2.53 St Francis PA ------ 0-8 0-11 -18.09 32%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _OHIO VALLEY________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
61.20 0.64 3.63 51.56 2.89 Jacksonville State - 7-0 9-2 7.59 58%
52.65 -0.24 -2.81 44.44 2.67 Tennessee-Martin --- 7-1 9-2 7.38 57%
51.32 2.59 1.54 45.56 2.65 Murray State ------- 6-2 8-3 4.93 55%
46.79 1.69 -0.65 50.32 2.67 Eastern Illinois --- 5-3 7-4 -4.45 46%
47.53 -1.70 -2.36 50.69 2.79 Eastern Kentucky --- 4-4 5-6 -3.94 46%
45.76 -6.85 -4.60 46.17 3.03 Tennessee State ---- 3-4 4-7 -0.86 49%
42.93 1.62 2.54 47.82 2.67 Austin Peay -------- 2-6 3-8 -4.45 46%
39.99 1.55 -0.06 49.24 2.72 Tennessee Tech ----- 1-7 2-9 -11.49 39%
35.91 -1.61 -1.59 51.33 2.69 SE Missouri State -- 0-8 1-10 -15.31 35%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _PATRIOT____________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
62.53 1.40 0.81 48.52 2.79 Holy Cross --------- 6-0 11-0 14.61 65%
62.45 -1.03 1.57 48.11 2.68 Colgate ------------ 5-1 10-1 14.77 65%
58.34 0.69 -0.41 52.47 2.83 Lafayette ---------- 4-2 8-3 6.35 56%
51.62 2.35 0.08 46.30 2.63 Fordham ------------ 3-3 7-4 5.81 56%
47.12 2.98 1.88 47.29 2.58 Bucknell ----------- 2-4 6-5 -0.76 49%
45.77 -2.45 -1.56 55.25 2.76 Lehigh ------------- 1-5 4-7 -7.88 42%
36.87 -1.12 2.06 49.43 2.57 Georgetown --------- 0-6 1-10 -12.19 38%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _PIONEER____________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
48.98 1.64 1.51 34.23 2.62 San Diego ---------- 8-0 10-1 14.29 64%
46.50 1.18 1.29 28.40 2.60 Jacksonville ------- 7-1 9-2 17.67 68%
34.19 0.82 3.02 28.57 2.66 Morehead State ----- 6-2 8-3 5.15 55%
36.13 -5.27 0.18 28.60 2.62 Dayton ------------- 6-2 8-3 7.99 58%
35.42 0.51 3.97 32.34 2.58 Marist ------------- 4-4 5-6 2.59 53%
34.18 3.93 2.23 25.95 2.59 Butler ------------- 4-4 7-4 8.68 59%
26.22 -2.85 -0.58 37.05 2.62 Davidson ----------- 2-6 3-7 -10.88 39%
28.33 -2.71 0.04 31.83 2.60 Drake -------------- 2-6 3-8 -3.08 47%
9.18 -2.79 -2.47 28.97 2.57 Valparaiso --------- 1-7 2-9 -20.23 30%
7.37 3.01 4.01 25.22 2.62 Campbell ----------- 0-8 1-10 -18.40 32%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _SOUTHERN___________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
81.12 3.10 1.94 58.80 3.37 Appalachian State -- 8-0 10-1 22.93 73%
74.44 4.87 2.60 55.72 2.81 Elon --------------- 7-1 9-2 18.14 68%
64.94 -3.73 -1.92 62.24 2.77 Wofford ------------ 6-2 7-4 1.51 52%
61.58 2.14 -3.30 61.37 2.84 Furman ------------- 5-3 6-5 -1.05 49%
58.87 3.55 -0.23 55.42 2.74 Samford ------------ 3-5 5-6 3.58 54%
57.70 -0.16 1.81 59.16 2.92 The Citadel -------- 3-5 5-6 -2.10 48%
55.01 -3.48 -1.50 62.28 3.13 Georgia Southern --- 3-5 4-7 -7.92 42%
46.15 -0.89 0.59 61.64 2.78 Western Carolina --- 1-7 1-10 -16.22 34%
42.45 1.75 0.24 60.56 2.69 Chattanooga -------- 0-8 1-10 -19.12 31%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _SOUTHLAND__________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
67.03 -0.56 2.76 51.52 2.87 Central Arkansas --- 7-0 11-1 15.21 65%
60.78 3.32 2.77 50.95 2.79 Stephen F Austin --- 5-2 8-3 9.28 59%
59.22 -0.30 3.05 59.10 2.79 Northwestern State - 5-2 7-4 -0.61 49%
59.20 -0.60 -3.95 55.65 2.98 McNeese State ------ 5-2 7-4 3.92 54%
56.11 0.99 -2.01 55.45 2.89 Texas State -------- 3-4 6-5 0.82 51%
50.25 1.23 -0.06 56.54 2.68 SE Louisiana ------- 2-5 4-7 -6.19 44%
51.69 -1.96 -3.97 57.40 2.84 Sam Houston State -- 1-6 2-9 -5.40 45%
48.65 -3.38 -0.84 58.08 2.70 Nicholls State ----- 0-7 1-10 -10.39 40%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _SWAC East__________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
46.26 3.93 -2.60 41.35 3.24 Jackson State ------ 7-0 8-2 6.82 57%
39.94 1.37 0.34 43.44 2.74 Alabama A&M -------- 4-3 4-7 -2.54 47%
30.38 0.96 -0.46 43.81 2.78 Alcorn State ------- 3-4 3-7 -16.30 34%
37.13 2.51 -2.10 36.56 3.03 Alabama State ------ 2-5 5-6 2.09 52%
28.79 1.37 2.90 34.94 2.67 Mississippi Valley - 1-6 4-7 -6.85 43%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _SWAC West__________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
53.78 3.46 0.23 46.41 2.88 Grambling ---------- 7-0 8-3 6.94 57%
46.59 1.97 -4.48 39.45 3.06 Southern U --------- 5-2 8-3 7.58 58%
46.74 -0.56 -1.86 37.80 2.68 Prairie View ------- 5-2 6-3 8.08 58%
27.00 -3.16 0.33 42.76 2.66 Texas Southern ----- 1-6 2-9 -17.68 32%
26.46 -2.71 -1.83 37.80 2.83 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0-7 1-10 -9.90 40%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home _FCS INDEPENDENT____ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
40.98 1.57 2.05 38.91 2.76 N C Central--------- *** 7-4 0.38 50%
26.92 2.82 0.19 30.17 2.66 Savannah State ----- *** 5-5 -2.70 47%
15.00 N/A N/A 36.59 3.19 Old Dominion ------- *** 2-9 -19.84 30%
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