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KCFR 2009 FBS Forecast = posted July 20th (best view in medium text)
Teams are listed in order of predicted conference or division finish.
Ties are broken by head-to-head prediction where possible.
Power = 2009 pre-season power rating
O-adj = offensive adjustment to 2008 rating
D-adj = defensive adjustment to 2008 rating
Sched = average of opponent ratings with home/away adjust
Home = team's home field advantage
Away = team's away game adjustment
Conf = predicted conference W/L record
2009 = predicted overall W/L record
PSM = predicted average scoring margin all games
GWP = average percentage winning chance of each game
The conference & overall won-lost predictions are compiled by playing the Power & Home/Away
game by game vs the schedule.
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _ACC Atlantic_______ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
80.69 -2.86 1.88 79.02 4.67 0.00 Clemson ------------ 5-3 7-5 3.20 53%
80.13 3.99 -4.29 78.77 3.76 0.09 Wake Forest -------- 5-3 8-4 2.56 53%
83.11 1.19 -3.22 81.99 4.74 -0.17 Florida State ------ 4-4 6-6 0.94 51%
77.86 -1.63 -3.22 76.18 4.84 -0.09 Boston College ----- 3-5 6-6 2.70 53%
77.23 2.37 0.85 76.92 4.01 0.55 North Carolina State 3-5 6-6 2.55 53%
76.14 -0.60 -2.40 78.98 4.48 0.17 Maryland ----------- 3-5 6-6 -0.91 49%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _ACC Coastal________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
89.95 3.36 0.80 78.73 4.29 0.62 Georgia Tech ------- 8-0 12-0 11.98 62%
86.74 2.55 0.00 80.56 5.07 0.65 Virginia Tech ------ 7-1 9-3 7.90 58%
80.91 -1.76 2.83 77.00 3.77 0.41 North Carolina ----- 5-3 8-4 4.71 55%
78.42 0.48 -0.92 80.58 4.40 0.09 Miami-Florida ------ 3-5 5-7 -2.19 48%
80.57 2.63 -0.73 79.51 4.65 -1.17 Virginia ----------- 2-6 4-8 2.04 52%
67.95 -0.10 -2.18 76.21 2.45 0.64 Duke --------------- 0-8 2-10 -8.70 41%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _BIG EAST___________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
85.53 -0.97 -0.92 75.64 4.27 0.09 Pittsburgh --------- 6-1 11-1 11.40 61%
86.39 0.81 -0.87 72.33 4.73 0.00 South Florida ------ 5-2 9-3 14.39 64%
83.60 1.89 -5.87 73.83 4.37 0.00 Cincinnati --------- 5-2 9-3 9.72 60%
81.51 -3.21 0.90 76.77 4.52 0.62 West Virginia ------ 4-3 8-4 6.29 56%
82.44 -2.03 0.43 76.25 4.29 0.24 Connecticut -------- 4-3 8-4 6.39 56%
78.75 -3.08 -0.22 69.04 4.03 0.27 Rutgers ------------ 3-4 7-5 11.04 61%
69.75 -2.90 -0.80 76.13 4.71 0.67 Louisville --------- 1-6 3-9 -6.28 44%
66.31 1.04 -0.16 80.21 3.88 -0.57 Syracuse ----------- 0-7 2-10 -11.95 38%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _BIG TEN____________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
97.83 -0.55 0.01 74.12 5.26 -0.28 Penn State --------- 8-0 12-0 26.89 77%
88.83 -1.73 -0.41 78.14 5.63 0.57 Ohio State --------- 7-1 10-2 13.67 64%
88.54 -0.04 1.86 77.56 4.75 -0.09 Iowa --------------- 6-2 10-2 11.97 62%
83.20 -0.78 -0.41 74.98 4.79 0.18 Wisconsin ---------- 6-2 10-2 9.98 60%
81.60 2.74 -2.36 76.80 3.86 -0.28 Illinois ----------- 5-3 8-4 5.78 56%
83.14 -3.77 1.74 78.89 4.07 -0.09 Michigan State ----- 4-4 7-5 5.40 55%
77.07 -5.25 0.96 73.86 3.74 0.43 Northwestern ------- 3-5 7-5 4.30 54%
68.45 -0.11 -1.53 77.74 5.18 -0.10 Michigan ----------- 2-6 5-7 -6.11 44%
78.30 5.14 0.56 80.98 4.08 0.00 Minnesota ---------- 2-6 5-7 -1.80 48%
71.28 -5.84 1.15 78.51 4.45 -0.47 Purdue ------------- 1-7 3-9 -5.99 44%
64.67 -0.55 0.88 76.77 3.24 -1.69 Indiana ------------ 0-8 1-11 -13.75 36%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _BIG 12 North_______ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
85.71 1.63 -0.63 79.23 4.07 0.00 Kansas ------------- 5-3 9-3 6.70 57%
87.15 -4.06 0.54 79.56 4.89 -0.29 Nebraska ----------- 5-3 8-4 9.26 59%
82.07 -5.39 -1.65 80.23 4.54 -0.29 Missouri ----------- 4-4 7-5 3.94 54%
74.43 2.05 -1.54 78.71 3.96 0.00 Colorado ----------- 3-5 6-6 -4.81 45%
69.66 -2.79 1.95 76.02 4.40 0.10 Kansas State ------- 2-6 4-8 -6.09 44%
65.75 2.20 0.42 75.29 3.88 -0.26 Iowa State --------- 0-8 3-9 -9.38 41%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _BIG 12 South_______ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
105.40 3.01 1.28 79.04 5.84 0.72 Texas -------------- 8-0 12-0 28.26 78%
104.90 0.29 2.22 81.71 5.53 0.22 Oklahoma ----------- 7-1 11-1 24.96 75%
92.75 3.63 0.36 82.74 4.45 -0.60 Oklahoma State ----- 6-2 10-2 12.82 63%
92.91 -4.48 0.04 81.15 4.80 -0.16 Texas Tech --------- 5-3 9-3 13.84 64%
78.10 1.92 2.50 82.04 3.13 -0.35 Baylor ------------- 2-6 4-8 -4.17 46%
67.58 1.52 -2.43 81.44 4.57 -1.27 Texas A&M ---------- 1-7 4-8 -12.51 37%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _C-USA East_________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
83.71 4.21 0.98 76.02 3.90 0.23 East Carolina ------ 7-1 9-3 7.94 58%
78.47 1.99 0.84 71.64 3.98 0.07 Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 6.75 57%
75.55 0.67 1.77 74.09 3.68 -0.55 Memphis ------------ 4-4 6-6 0.90 51%
69.15 5.63 -0.11 72.33 3.54 0.00 U A B -------------- 2-6 3-9 -4.84 45%
67.77 -1.45 0.53 72.83 3.97 -1.58 Marshall ----------- 2-6 4-8 -6.11 44%
65.49 2.19 -0.40 75.58 3.87 -0.65 Central Florida ---- 2-6 4-8 -9.59 40%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _C-USA West_________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
87.31 -4.11 2.29 75.58 3.90 -0.59 Tulsa -------------- 8-0 11-1 11.16 61%
84.33 2.22 -2.52 74.38 3.52 -0.83 Houston ------------ 7-1 9-3 9.41 59%
73.94 -7.31 1.92 76.75 3.99 -0.29 Rice --------------- 5-3 6-6 -3.01 47%
71.16 3.66 0.88 74.48 3.60 -0.44 Texas-El Paso ------ 4-4 6-6 -3.72 46%
63.45 1.99 2.05 74.13 2.95 -0.55 S M U -------------- 1-7 2-10 -11.65 38%
64.77 1.86 0.33 73.37 3.26 -0.31 Tulane ------------- 1-7 3-9 -9.00 41%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _MID-AMERICAN East__ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
66.14 -1.76 0.00 67.85 3.05 0.22 Buffalo ------------ 5-3 6-6 -1.73 48%
68.84 0.85 -2.93 70.56 3.87 0.22 Bowling Green ------ 5-3 6-6 -1.31 49%
67.92 1.46 -0.01 67.33 3.51 -0.14 Akron -------------- 4-4 6-6 -0.17 50%
68.66 1.97 0.43 67.51 3.51 -0.43 Ohio U ------------- 4-4 6-6 0.66 51%
65.27 -1.29 3.35 68.46 3.08 0.46 Temple ------------- 3-5 4-8 -3.73 46%
61.41 -3.06 0.91 67.15 2.84 0.00 Kent State --------- 1-7 2-10 -6.08 44%
54.78 1.67 -2.54 71.33 3.81 0.40 Miami-Ohio --------- 0-8 0-12 -16.73 33%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _MID-AMERICAN West__ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
74.38 -4.24 0.26 66.83 3.83 0.49 Ball State --------- 8-0 11-1 8.00 58%
75.22 0.05 4.19 67.54 3.77 -0.44 Central Michigan --- 7-1 8-4 6.00 56%
66.60 3.87 2.72 69.84 4.47 -0.83 Toledo ------------- 5-3 5-7 -4.22 46%
67.11 2.11 -1.43 66.44 3.95 0.77 Northern Illinois -- 4-4 6-6 0.51 51%
70.67 1.55 -4.26 66.84 3.49 -0.15 Western Michigan --- 4-4 6-6 2.18 52%
63.39 4.08 -0.54 68.25 2.93 -0.30 Eastern Michigan --- 2-6 3-9 -7.33 43%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _MOUNTAIN WEST______ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
97.35 1.48 -2.05 73.85 4.98 -0.67 T C U -------------- 8-0 12-0 23.38 73%
93.36 -3.77 0.38 74.97 4.69 0.64 Utah --------------- 7-1 11-1 18.72 69%
87.06 -0.15 -0.65 78.55 4.61 -0.24 Brigham Young ------ 6-2 9-3 9.98 60%
77.27 -0.82 -0.51 72.72 4.08 0.33 Air Force ---------- 4-4 7-5 4.28 54%
74.39 -0.69 -2.55 75.60 3.77 -0.43 Colorado State ----- 3-5 5-7 -1.65 48%
70.43 -1.32 -2.88 77.69 4.06 0.39 New Mexico --------- 3-5 4-8 -7.38 43%
71.75 -2.12 0.93 79.37 3.18 -0.92 Wyoming ------------ 3-5 5-7 -8.24 42%
71.94 1.54 0.66 78.03 3.23 -0.68 U N L V ------------ 2-6 4-8 -5.50 44%
62.67 2.39 0.72 72.74 3.24 -0.23 San Diego State ---- 0-8 3-9 -10.56 39%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _PACIFIC 10_________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
103.41 -0.18 -3.71 80.21 5.43 0.48 U S C -------------- 9-0 12-0 23.59 74%
88.63 -2.70 -1.66 83.43 4.78 0.95 Oregon ------------- 8-1 9-3 7.55 58%
87.91 0.32 0.00 79.87 4.47 0.00 California --------- 6-3 9-3 8.07 58%
91.18 0.09 -3.86 78.14 4.77 0.08 Oregon State ------- 6-3 9-3 13.00 63%
83.76 -1.70 0.29 80.03 3.64 0.27 Arizona ------------ 5-4 7-5 3.02 53%
85.05 2.50 2.24 81.98 3.73 0.09 Stanford ----------- 5-4 8-4 4.28 54%
77.59 2.04 1.01 79.47 4.76 -0.17 U C L A ------------ 3-6 5-7 -1.86 48%
73.62 -3.37 0.48 79.59 4.59 -0.84 Arizona State ------ 2-7 4-8 -5.02 45%
72.05 2.76 5.06 82.55 3.66 -0.91 Washington --------- 1-8 2-10 -9.98 40%
62.78 1.99 -0.57 81.78 3.71 0.33 Washington State --- 0-9 1-11 -18.54 31%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _SEC East___________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
108.89 0.67 5.57 76.87 5.53 0.32 Florida ------------ 8-0 12-0 34.78 85%
92.30 -3.21 1.15 80.80 5.16 0.67 Georgia ------------ 7-1 9-3 13.03 63%
80.83 -3.13 -1.39 82.59 4.55 0.38 South Carolina ----- 3-5 6-6 -0.42 50%
74.95 -0.03 -1.45 82.29 4.91 0.57 Tennessee ---------- 3-5 6-6 -4.19 46%
79.28 0.35 3.09 79.08 3.26 0.52 Vanderbilt --------- 2-6 5-7 -0.38 50%
74.50 2.92 -2.40 76.69 4.07 0.00 Kentucky ----------- 2-6 6-6 -0.43 50%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _SEC West___________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
94.83 2.70 0.99 75.83 4.19 -0.28 Mississippi -------- 8-0 12-0 20.33 70%
93.40 -3.44 2.36 75.90 4.46 0.42 Alabama ------------ 7-1 11-1 19.85 70%
90.38 2.63 0.97 81.68 5.16 0.32 L S U -------------- 4-4 8-4 10.77 61%
81.66 -0.06 0.00 79.88 4.45 0.51 Arkansas ----------- 3-5 7-5 3.70 54%
77.59 1.49 0.00 80.62 5.12 0.20 Auburn ------------- 2-6 6-6 -0.24 50%
69.23 1.45 0.00 82.89 3.34 -0.60 Mississippi State -- 0-8 2-10 -12.84 37%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _SUN BELT___________ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
71.85 0.51 2.03 63.88 3.52 -0.80 Arkansas State ----- 8-0 9-3 5.83 56%
71.92 -1.43 -1.18 68.46 4.01 0.62 Troy --------------- 6-2 7-5 2.50 52%
70.34 -1.76 2.22 66.42 3.26 0.00 UL-Lafayette ------- 6-2 8-4 3.52 54%
67.95 4.56 -0.64 70.43 3.10 -0.15 Florida Int'l ------ 6-2 7-5 -4.20 46%
65.57 0.27 -4.74 67.16 3.44 -0.39 Florida Atlantic --- 4-4 4-8 -3.52 46%
63.10 -0.05 -0.19 67.30 3.52 0.00 Middle Tennessee --- 3-5 3-9 -4.65 45%
56.21 -1.92 3.26 67.23 3.41 -0.34 North Texas -------- 2-6 3-9 -11.61 38%
58.79 -1.81 3.54 65.19 3.03 0.47 UL-Monroe ---------- 1-7 2-10 -8.34 42%
48.91 -0.93 -3.82 68.48 2.71 0.00 Western Kentucky --- 0-8 0-12 -20.08 30%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _WESTERN ATHLETIC___ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
87.92 -0.62 -0.48 68.44 5.26 0.64 Boise State -------- 8-0 12-1 20.97 71%
80.45 1.67 1.38 70.18 3.96 -0.53 Nevada ------------- 7-1 10-2 9.95 60%
72.05 -1.35 1.82 70.28 4.00 -0.14 Fresno State ------- 5-3 6-6 0.35 50%
68.11 1.05 1.06 68.47 3.83 -1.47 Louisiana Tech ----- 5-3 6-6 -2.62 47%
68.62 1.41 0.17 74.32 3.86 -0.07 San Jose State ----- 4-4 5-7 -6.20 44%
67.51 0.71 -6.39 69.65 4.52 -0.49 Hawaii ------------- 4-4 7-6 -1.15 49%
63.15 1.73 -0.73 69.76 3.10 -0.75 Utah State --------- 2-6 3-9 -8.85 41%
53.89 -5.44 0.00 68.20 3.16 -0.91 New Mexico State --- 1-7 2-11 -16.48 34%
52.07 1.57 -0.21 69.42 2.77 -0.97 Idaho -------------- 0-8 0-12 -18.55 31%
Power O-adj D-adj Sched Home Away _FBS INDEPENDENTS___ Conf 2009 PSM GWP
85.23 5.27 0.98 79.49 4.52 0.57 Notre Dame --------- *** 9-3 8.17 58%
68.48 -5.16 0.97 69.67 3.62 1.26 Navy --------------- *** 6-7 -1.23 49%
55.54 -3.70 -0.70 68.57 2.59 0.09 Army --------------- *** 2-10 -12.95 37%
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