Most investors looking for recommendations from Internet sites such as this one, it seems to me, expect the advice to pay off fairly quickly. This may be a valid expectation when investing in individual stocks, but much less so for mutual fund investing.
As a result, readers of my articles sometimes find it hard to get excited when the recommendations I make don't seem to be making them noticeably much better off. So if you expect to make a big profit quickly, I agree that my recommendations and allocations are probably not for you.
Unlike many other Internet stock market writers, my recommendations are geared for investors who are looking out over roughly the next 1 to 3 years. Almost all experts agree that it is nearly impossible to outguess the financial markets over the short term, so giving mutual fund recommendations that will enable you to "hit it big" over say the next 3 to 6 months is nearly impossible.
With that in mind, here are the results for the recommendations for funds I made almost exactly one year ago in the July 1, 2002 Newsletter on my site. None of these results, you can see, are going to make you dance through the streets. But, if you can get these kind of market-beating results year after year, you are going to be well on your way to a better financial life in the years to come.
Fund | Morningstar Style | Allo- | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|
Vanguard Extended Market Index |
Mid Cap Blend | 15% | +5.62% |
| Vanguard Emerging Markets Index | Emerging Markets | 10 | +5.25 |
Vanguard REIT Index | Real Estate | 10 | +2.99 |
| Vanguard Windsor | Large Value | 15 | +2.45 |
Vanguard Explorer | Small Cap Growth | 5 | +2.30 |
Fidelity Low Priced Stock | Small Cap Value | 10 | +1.10 |
Vanguard Index Europe | Foreign (Large Blend) | 5 | +0.53 |
Fidelity Contra | Large Blend | 10 | +0.46 |
Vanguard International Growth | Foreign (Large Blend) | 10 | -2.86 |
Tweedy Browne Global Value | Foreign (Mid Cap Value) | 10 | -8.19 |
Fund | Morningstar |
Allo- | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Century International Bond | Not Available | 10% | 26.13% |
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities | Low | 30 | 16.96 |
| Vanguard High Yield | Medium | 20 | 11.35 |
| PIMCO Total Return Instit. | Medium | 20 | 11.33 |
| Vanguard Short Term Corporate | Low | 20 | 6.52 |
The following table shows our recommended stock vs bond allocation for the above complete portfolio, plus a cash position, back in July 2002,.
Class |
Percent |
|---|---|
Stocks |
60% |
Bonds |
32.5 |
Cash | 7.5 |
When you compute the total return of the entire portfolio using the above allocations, your total return for this model portfolio would have been +5.2% vs +1.7% for Vanguard 500 Index, or a 3.5% advantage.
If you are saying to yourself: "OK, but an extra 3.5% for one year isn't going to make that much difference", please take a look at the market-beating results of my Model Portfolio from the beginning of years 2000, 2001, and 2002 on my web site. And in pre-bear market 1999, the average stock fund we covered increased in value by 34.5%. This compared to the 1999 average U.S. diversified stock fund return of 27.1%, and 21.0% for the S&P 500.
Incidentally, if you are wondering why someone like me can continue to provide free investment information without ever having charged anyone a nickel for all the time I have spent so doing, here is the answer:
Due to the success I have had down through the years in following the very same ideas as shown in my columns, I no longer need to work for money - I can spend my time doing whatever. Although the suggestions shown in my columns will not make you rich overnight, they have continued to do well even during one of the worst 5 year periods for stocks in generations. Our July Newsletter will show our current thoughts for the upcoming year or so timeframe.