NOVEMBER & DECEMBER 2009 DISASTER DETAILS

Monday, November 30, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The longer the night lasts, the more our dreams will be.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/29/09 -
5.4 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 TONGA
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
11/28/09 -
6.0 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
6.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.1 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
11/27/09 -
5.0 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.2 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.4 LARA, VENEZUELA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
11/26/09 -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 EL SALVADOR
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.1 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.1 SOUTHERN GREECE
5.2 TONGA

INDONESIA - A magnitude 6.2 earthquake shook islands in eastern Indonesia on Saturday, felling a power pole into a market crowd and panicking residents.

VENEZUELA - An earthquake of 5.6 magnitude shook western Venezuela early on Friday, panicking residents and damaging some buildings, but no deaths were reported.

VOLCANOES -
VANUATU - More than 300 villagers have been evacuated in the Pacific nation of Vanuatu after an erupting volcano started spewing smoke and ash onto their homes. Residents were loaded onto fishing boats and shipped to the far side of Gaua island after the volcano, which has been rumbling for the past two months, started erupting on Thursday. "They're evacuating people to the other side of the island. The volcano was throwing ash in the place they live."

MONTSERRAT - Light ash has fallen over the capital of Montserrat after the Caribbean island's temperamental volcano hurled another round of hot rocks and gases. A small pyroclastic flow nearly reached the ocean as Soufriere Hills shed part of its old dome this week. Friday that ash fell on parts of Olveston and Old Town. Tremors also shook the volcano as it began emitting lava closer to the summit. Soufriere Hills has shot several plumes of ash in recent months.

RUSSIA - Despite no reports of activity, Bezymianny Volcano on Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula exhibited a modest plume on November 25.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon NIDA was 448 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Was Super Typhoon Nida the STRONGEST STORM EVER? - Super Typhoon Nida had a pressure reading of 869.3 mb (25.67" Hg) on Wednesday. Super Typhoon Tip holds the record for the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide; Tip bottomed out at 870 mb in 1979. The official wind numbers put Nida at 160-knot (mph) sustained winds; SSEC estimated 164 knots (189 mph). Officially, Tip had 165-knot winds. Recon flights no longer take place in the Pacific (insinuating that the record cannot be officially broken anymore). "Three researchers determined two typhoons, Angela in 1995 and Gay in 1992, maintained higher Dvorak numbers than Tip, and believed that one or both of the two may have been more intense than Tip." So in short, the record cannot be technically broken by Nida, and there was at least one storm (Monica in 2006) which had a pressure reading less than Nida (rated at 869 mb by Dvorak classifications), but Nida has proven to be one heck of a storm. Fortunately she is projected to curve out into the Pacific without reaching Japan.

VIETNAM - A tropical low pressure that is producing gusts up to 80km/h in the East Sea is heading towards the Truong Sa (Spratly) Archipelago. The low pressure will produce choppy seas off the coast. It is QUITE ABNORMAL to have a tropical low pressure at this time of year. "It is hasty to say whether the low pressure will be upgraded to a tropical storm." However, localities especially in the southern coastal provinces, should be on the look out for bad weather due to the low pressure, and be ready to deal with natural disasters. Boat captains should monitor the weather closely before going out to sea.

BURMA - An infestation of rats caused by Cyclone Nargis is threatening to devastate rice crops in the Irrawaddy delta - in contradiction of government claims that Burma is set to produce a one million tons surplus for export. The rat plague - affecting over 700,000 hectares - has developed because the cyclone killed off natural predators such as snakes, dogs and cats. Although 2.5 million rats have been exterminated in the past few months, their fast breeding rate means there could be as many as 10 million of them still in the delta. There are no estimates on the extent of rice crop damage, but more funding is needed to ward off “further damage and a possible spread of the rodents to crops not currently affected.” The regime-linked Myanmar Rice and Paddy Association claimed earlier this month that Burma’s rice exports could reach one million tons for the 2009-2010 fiscal year. That figure would be about 300,000 tons more than Burma claims to have exported in 2008-2009 - the year Nargis struck.

PHILIPPINES - A four-month-old baby died on Wednesday when she ran out of oxygen after the ambulance rushing her to the hospital got stranded in floodwaters brought about by Tropical Depression Urduja. President Arroyo was called on to immediately release the P200-million rehabilitation fund she promised in January following the almost weeklong flooding due to the tail end of a cold front. “Our people in Misamis Oriental and Cagayan de Oro are in need of immediate assistance. Where is now that fund promised in January yet?” Dredging of the Cagayan de Oro River is now a must, and this should begin immediately to avoid future floodings in the city in view of weather reports that more typhoons are yet to hit the country before the year ends. As of 6 p.m. on Wednesday, there were already 2,584 families affected by floods and landslides in the city. Urduja totally damaged 44 houses and partially damaged 14 houses in the city. The affected families have evacuated to temporary evacuation centers in schools, covered courts, barangay halls, multipurpose halls, churches and chapels. Meanwhile, as of 6 p.m. on Wednesday, an estimated P10 million worth of fish cages in the towns of Balingasag and Magsayay were wiped out by rampaging waves brought by Urduja. Big waves destroyed at least 27 fish cages in Magsaysay and five fish cages in the mariculture in Balingasag. These fish cages are for bangus (milkfish).

MADAGASCAR - The United Nations is appealing to its members to contribute $6 million ahead of a wave of intense cyclones expected off the Indian Ocean next month, focusing on the needs of Madagascar most. This year meteorologists are warning that four to five powerful tropical storms will swirl through the island causing large-scale destruction and putting thousands of lives at risk. "We are in a very grave situation and need to pre-position supplies in the areas most at risk to be able to effectively save lives and mitigate the impact on these communities." Due to its geographic location, Madagascar is affected every year by three to four cyclones. Over the last two years, the country was hit by five cyclones affecting over 463,000 people, damaging 2,276 classrooms, destroying 180,000 hectares of agricultural land and leaving 190,000 people homeless. "The tragedy is that this is an annual event and it appears that each year the severity and impact is potentially greater."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SAUDI ARABIA - the death toll from floods that tore through the port city of Jeddah this week has risen to 103, with another 1,400 rescued. Torrents of water inundated the Red Sea port on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia saw SOME OF ITS HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN YEARS. Many people were drowned or were killed by collapsing bridges and in car crashes. Newspapers have repeatedly reported on the poor condition of the sewerage infrastructure of the city, where many people live in unauthorised developments built on dry riverbeds.
The city of Jeddah drowned in six-hour rainfall - Although the level of rainfall that night did not exceed 72mm, it was ONE OF THE MOST DEADLY FLOODS THAT SAUDI ARABIA HAS EVER EXPERIENCED. The climate this year was a curious combination of joy and fear. The entire region, not just Saudi Arabia, has been experiencing a terrible drought, which has resulted in rivers drying up and farms depreciating, along with the WORST DUST STORMS IN RECENT HISTORY. After the ground has dried, and the clouds have disappeared, the people of Jeddah return to their old habit of queuing up [for water rations] in front of the water tanks. Jeddah is a city of contradictions; a city where people are dying of thirst at the same time that they are being swept away by floods.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - Melbourne has sweated through THE HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD as temperatures soared for weeks before welcome rain finally arrived. The city's mean daily maximum temperature stands at 27.4C degrees, beating the high of 25.5C degrees recorded back in 1862. The record-breaking heat came during the first half of the month when 10 consecutive days experienced temperatures above 30 degrees. Rainfall in the northwestern regions of the state saw nearly three times the level of normal rainfall this month, which will help ease the bushfire threat.
SYDNEY also has had its HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD with maximum temperatures 2.5 degrees above average.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The global number of swine flu deaths has jumped by more than 1,000 in a week. At least 7,826 people are now known to have died following infection with the H1N1 virus since it first emerged in Mexico in April. Europe saw an 85% increase in the week, with the total number of deaths rising from at least 350 to at least 650. However, in most cases the virus continues to produce mild symptoms. An overwhelming majority of patients usually recover, even without medical treatment, within a week. The biggest rise in deaths was recorded in the Americas, where the death toll rose to 5,360 - a rise of 554 cases in one week. Health authorities in Norway and France have each recorded two fatalities from a mutated strain of H1N1. China, Japan, Norway, Ukraine and the US have also recorded cases of people being infected with a mutated strain. The question is whether these mutations suggest that there is a fundamental change going on in viruses out there - whether there's a turn for the worse in terms of severity. The answer right now is that we are not sure." Mutations are common in influenza viruses. "If every mutation is reported out there it would be like reporting changes in the weather."

Thursday, November 26, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Listen to all, plucking a feather from every passing goose, but follow no one absolutely.
Chinese proverb

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
[No update Friday or Sunday.]

QUAKES -
11/25/09 -
5.1 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone BONGANI was 713 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Typhoon NIDA was 246 nmi WNW of Agana, Guam.

MADAGASCAR - Two near misses by huge storms rolling in from the Indian Ocean have signalled an early start to Madagascar's cyclone season, prompting the humanitarian community to appeal for "urgent" preparedness funding. Meteorologists forecast that four to five intense cyclones could strike Madagascar during the 2009/10 season. The approaching Tropical Storm Bongani, hot on the heels of Cyclone Anja in mid-November, provided a wake-up call for aid agencies and the partly paralyzed national disaster management authority. Cyclone season usually starts in December and runs through April, hitting some of the poorest regions in the country.
Bongani is now forecast to head south through the Mozambique Channel and parallel the coast of Madagascar over the next 5 days.

Cyclone Nida approaching the Philippines from the east is not likely to make landfall. "As of now, Nida is moving slowly. If it enters the Philippine area of responsibility, it will likely remain at sea and not make landfall." On the other hand, the Japan Meteorological Agency's report indicated Nida is moving north-northwest. It described Nida as "very intense." Nida has maximum wind speeds of 115 knots near the center and gusts of up to 165 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center described Nida as a "super typhoon," and that it is moving "toward the Philippines." Meanwhile, despite the weakening of tropical depression Urduja into a low-pressure area, threats of flash floods and landslides still loom over North Mindanao.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
More than 100 icebergs were spotted drifting towards New Zealand's main South Island. The icebergs, some of which are 200m (650ft) in size, are believed to have broken from an Antarctic ice floe. Many scientists believe these segments will break up long before reaching the New Zealand coastline. A warning has been issued to ships in the southern Pacific Ocean. Satellite photography spotted just one cluster of icebergs but there may be more around. The closest iceberg - about 30m high (98ft) - was 160 miles (257.5km) south east of New Zealand's Stewart Island. A number of scientists say they believe the icebergs originally broke away from the Ross Sea Ice Shelf in 2000 and have been drifting and slowly breaking apart since then. In 2006, a number of icebergs from the same broken shelf came within 16 miles (25km) of the coastline. Before that, the last sighting was in 1931. Since the icebergs were moving at a speed of just 16 miles (25km) a day, not many of them are expected to reach New Zealand's coastline. Scientists are now investigating the conditions which have allowed the icebergs to travel in such a large form for so long.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
Northern Michigan will remain snow-free for at least another week. This is a huge contrast compared to 2008 when the Gaylord area saw more than 27 inches before Thanksgiving, and 4 additional inches before the month ended. “This is QUITE RARE actually. We typically average 22 to 23 inches of snow for the month of November. The interesting fact is this doesn’t mean we’ll be short on snow for the winter. Even in 2001 we had well in excess of 100 inches after having only an inch of snow on the ground before Thanksgiving.”

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

CDC connects H1N1, severe bacterial infections - Federal health officials on Wednesday linked the H1N1 flu epidemic to a sharp rise in the number of severe bacterial infections. The national trend was "worrisome" but not unexpected. "In previous pandemics, there has been an increase in pneumococcal infections in younger people." . The illnesses are caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, a microbe often carried in the nose and throat. While often benign, the bacterium can cause bloodstream infections, fatal pneumonia and meningitis. The clearest sign of the marked rise is coming from the Denver area, which usually records about 20 cases of "invasive pneumococcal disease" each October. This year it has had 58. In an analysis of about 75 fatal H1N1 cases earlier this year, autopsies showed that about one-third had bacterial pneumonia. CDC is investigating 10 proved or suspected cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome among people who have gotten the vaccine, which is no more than would normally be expected in that number of people.

Influenza activity at US colleges continued to significantly decline last week, with all but seven states reporting decreases. New cases dropped 37% from the previous week. The report for the week ending Nov 20 said the attack rate was 13.4 cases per 10,000 students, but with no deaths. The pandemic vaccine uptake is low, with only 4% vaccinated just before the Thanksgiving break.

China, Hong Kong report virus mutation - A Chinese official said that this summer China detected the pandemic H1N1 virus mutation which has been seen in Norway and other countries. The mutated virus didn't seem to be more virulent and wasn't linked to any deaths. Hong Kong officials said they detected the mutation in July in a toddler who has recovered.

Chinese expert warns of possible H1N1-H5N1 mix A Chinese respiratory disease expert said the country must be alert to any H1N1 mutation, because the far deadlier H5N1 avian flu is endemic in China. "China . . . is different from other countries. nside China, H5N1 has been existing for some time, so if there is really a reassortment between H1N1 and H5N1, it will be a disaster."

First H1N1 wave hit 1 in 6 UK children - Serology studies by the United Kingdom's Health Protection Agency reveal that about 15% of children in England became infected with H1N1 flu during the pandemic's first wave in spring and summer. That proportion rose in certain areas of the country, with 25% of children under 15 infected in London and the West Midlands, and 21% of those age 15 to 24. About one third of children tested in a boarding school who showed no symptoms had actually been infected.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One cannot refuse to eat just because there is a chance of being choked.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/24/09 -
5.4 TONGA
5.8 TONGA
6.8 TONGA
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 GUAM REGION

TONGA - A 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck off the Pacific island nation of Tonga, sending panicked residents into the streets at night, but there were reports of damage or injuries. Residents in the capital, Nuku'alofa, 120 miles (195 kilometers) southwest of the epicenter, said their homes rattled, and the tremors set off frantic barking of dogs. In the town of Ha'apai, on an island 185 miles (300 kilometers) northeast of the capital, the quake was strong and lasted about 45 seconds.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
LIBERIA faces rising flood threat. Liberia, on Africa's west coast, is in desperate need of help as it suffers from the effects of climate change. The country is now facing a major threat - the ocean. The changing climate means the sea level is rising and the rainy season is getting longer. This has led to a rapidly eroding coastline and more instances of flooding. People living in one of the capital Monrovia's seaside shanty towns, New Kru Town, say the effects of this are clear - homes have been swept away and lives have been lost. Over the years the ocean has moved inland. Liberia's government wants to build a series of sea walls in the Atlantic Ocean to protect communities like New Kru Town from rising sea levels. But that will be costly, and the government has very little money. The economy has barely begun to recover from a civil war. The majority of Liberia's population live in coastal cities and what is left of its infrastructure is also near the ocean. The exact rate of coastal erosion is unclear because historical records were destroyed during the civil war. But the government estimates that in one coastal city, Buchanan, the sea has moved 250 metres in almost 40 years. People living in Buchanan tell a different story. They talk in much bigger terms. A lawyer has lived in Buchanan for all of his 85 years. Since he was a boy, he says, "I believe the sea has eroded a mile and a half or two. Buchanan is on the brink of falling into the sea. We are all afraid now and don't know what to do." The government minister describes the amount of money rich countries spend helping poor countries adapt to climate change as "a drop in the bucket." "If aid is not forthcoming, it's going to be a national disaster." (photos)

MOZAMBIQUE - While scientists cannot give an exact figure of how much the sea has already risen in Mozambique, the effects are already obvious. "I went to the beach a lot as a child, and I've noticed things are changing. The water is eating the land - little by little it's eating the land." Mozambique has compiled an action plan, and has been offered help from the World Bank, UN agencies and a plethora of other aid agencies. But so far little has been done, and much of what the country would like to do is beyond its budget.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone BONGANI was 624 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Typhoon NIDA was 177 nmi SSW of Agana, Guam.
Tropical depression TWENTYSEVEN [Urduja] was 125 nmi E of Cebu City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - Even as Tropical Depression Urduja [27] moved eastward and continues to threaten eastern Visayas and Mindanao, state weather forecasters are monitoring a new tropical storm that may enter Philippine territory in three days. The new storm, with international code-name "Nida," may affect areas between Visayas and Mindanao once it enters Philippine territory. The incoming storm is far bigger and more powerful than Urduja. Urduja was estimated at 70 km east of Surigao City as of 4 a.m. Wednesday, packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near its center and moving east slowly. Urduja is expected to be 130 km east of Surigao City Thursday morning, and 220 km east of Surigao City or 210 km east southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar Friday morning. By Saturday morning it is expected to be 310 km east southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
The Visayas has been spared by tropical depression Urduja as it veered east towards the Pacific Ocean, the weather bureau said Tuesday. The storm changed its path due to a high pressure area over the South China sea. The storm, with peak winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph), is moving east towards the Pacific Ocean. The storm will not intensify, but it may linger in Philippine waters until Friday. Meanwhile, Nida, is forecast to enter Philippine waters on Sunday. With peak winds of 75 kph, the tropical storm, to be renamed Vinta once it enters Philippine waters, was moving northwest and is likely to affect Northeastern Luzon.

Tropical Storm Nida was upgraded to a typhoon last night. There are no watches in effect for Guam, but Nida is expected to make its closest point of approach approximately 225 miles southwest of the island this evening. A tropical storm warning remains for the outer island of Faraulep in the Federated State of Micronesia. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Fais and Ulithi. Though there is no storm watch or warning for the island, the Weather Service issued a high surf advisory for the island that will last until Friday. (map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - The rain may have finally stopped but Britain was battered by yet more freak weather Monday. As the flood victims of Cumbria began the gruelling task of cleaning up, a tornado tore through a town in the Midlands, destroying buildings, trees and cars.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Icebergs head from Antarctica for New Zealand - Ships in the south Pacific Ocean have been alerted that groups of icebergs believed to have split off Antarctic ice shelves are drifting north toward New Zealand. The alert comes three years after cold weather and favorable ocean currents saw dozens of icebergs float close to New Zealand's southern shores for the first time in 75 years. One iceberg was spotted Monday, 57 miles (92 kilometers) northeast of Macquarie Island and heading north - about 500 miles (800 kilometers) south of New Zealand. The iceberg was up to 500 feet (150 meters) long and 80-90 feet (25-30 meters) high. Four icebergs were spotted last week off Auckland Islands, 250 miles (400 kilometers) south of New Zealand and heading slowly toward the country. Australian scientists reported another mass of 20 icebergs drifting north past Macquarie Island two weeks ago. Satellite images showed the group of icebergs, spread over a sea area of 600 by 440 miles (1,000 kilometers by 700 kilometers), moving on ocean currents away from Antarctica. It is RARE for whole icebergs to drift so far north before melting, but a cold snap around southern New Zealand and favorable ocean currents have again combined to push the towering visitors to the region intact.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
CALIFORNIA - A wind-driven wildfire broke out south of Los Angeles Tuesday night as late season Santa Ana winds blasted down burning slopes toward homes.

Climate is a major driver of conflict across Africa, researchers say, with future warming likely to increase civil wars by 50% in 20 years.

Climate cash is 'unaccounted for' - Large sums promised to developing countries to help them tackle climate change cannot be accounted for, a BBC investigation has found. Rich countries pledged $410m (£247m) a year in a 2001 declaration - but it is now unclear whether the money was paid. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has accused industrialised countries of failing to keep their promise. The EU says the money was paid out in bilateral deals, but admits it cannot provide data to prove it. The money was pledged in the 2001 Bonn Declaration, signed by 20 industrialised nations - the 15 countries that then made up the European Union, plus Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland. They said they would pay $410m per year until 2008 - a total of $1.6bn. But only $260m has ever been paid into two UN funds earmarked for the purpose, the BBC World Service investigation has found. Poor countries may not sign up to a new agreement unless they trust rich countries to keep their promises, and are satisfied with the mechanisms put in place to handle the flow of funds.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Study revisits issue of lab origin for H1N1 - After examining publicly available genetic sequences, virologist Adrian Gibbs and colleagues suggest in a study that the pandemic H1N1 virus may have been the product of a lab. In May the World Health Organization (WHO) examined Gibbs's assertions and said natural means were more likely. Gibbs said that, while genes from different flu strains may have mixed naturally to form novel H1N1, human involvement is "by far the simplest explanation." (pdf file)

Doctor had repeat H1N1 - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that a West Virginia pediatrician contracted novel H1N1 flu twice, in August and in October. Local labs had confirmed that she had pandemic flu both times she was sick. Now more exacting tests from the CDC on both samples have confirmed the results. A state health official called this occurrence "VERY, VERY, VERY RARE."

Japan reports flu-related brain swelling - Japan has identified 132 influenza patients who have developed encephalopathy, or brain swelling caused by an immune overreaction. This is triple the expected annual number. Patients ranged in age from 1 to 67, but most were under 15, with 7-year-olds most commonly affected. Three patients died. A senior health official said that flu patients who have slow responses or say "strange things" should see a doctor immediately.

107 patients who were critically ill with pandemic H1N1 flu have been treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Research at the University of Michigan is under way to assess the best candidates for the treatment. ECMO allows blood to bypass damaged lungs to allow healing.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
Timco Worldwide Inc. is recalling a limited number of its Large Seedless Watermelons because they have the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One dog barks at something, the rest bark at him.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/23/09 -
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.6 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone BONGANI was 700 nmi NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical storm NIDA was 297 nmi S of Agana, Guam.
Tropical depression TWENTYSEVEN was 192 nmi E of Cebu City, Philippines.

Cyclone Bongani is forecast to strike Madagascar at about 00:00 GMT on 25 November. Bongani was forecast to strike the Seychelles at about 18:00 GMT on 24 November. (map)

Tropical Storm Nida is tracking away from Guam according to the update from the National Weather Service. It is moving West-Northwest at 8 MPH and is expected to turn more Northwest within the next twenty-four hours bringing maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH and is expected to intensify.

Tropical depression Twentyseven is forecast to strike the Philippines as a tropical storm at about 18:00 GMT on 25 November.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UNITED KINGDOM - The Environment Agency has warned residents in Cumbria more heavy rain could bring further flooding as water levels reach a "big peak" later. Up to 10cm (3.9in) of rain is forecast over high ground and 20 flood warnings remain in place in England and Wales. "The ground is very waterlogged and rivers are already very high so any amount of rain that falls goes very quickly into the rivers." It could take years for the affected areas to recover. The Environmental Secretary said that although the flooding could not be attributed to climate change, more extreme weather could be expected in the future. A record £2.15bn is being invested in river and coastal defences over three years. (map & photos)
England's WETTEST DAY ON RECORD claimed the life of a "heroic" policeman and left thousands of others counting the cost of flooded homes and businesses. The extreme rainfall that swamped northern England with devastating floods, sweeping away bridges, making hundreds homeless, was the heaviest ever recorded in Britain in a 24-hour period. More than a foot of rain – 12.3in – fell onto the Lake District in 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in a summer thunderstorm in July 1955, when 11in were recorded in Martinstown, Dorset. The unparalleled volume of water, running off already saturated ground, turned the Derwent into an unstoppable torrent which devastated the towns in its path, Cockermouth and Workington – collapsing a stone bridge on Workington's outskirts. The downpour was caused by a wet, warm air system blown across the Atlantic, which sat over Cumbria for 24 hours and brought the equivalent of NEARLY TWO MONTHS' RAIN IN A SINGLE DAY. It was probably a "ONE-IN-A-1000-YEARS EVENT".

SINGAPORE - Thursday's deluge which submerged parts of Bukit Timah was a 'FREAK' event that OCCURS ONCE IN 50 YEARS. 'What happened was VERY UNUSUAL. The intensity was tremendous.' Shortly after 1pm the skies opened and in the next two hours, almost 110mm of rain fell - almost half the average monthly rainfall for November. When a diversion canal from the main Bukit Timah canal burst its banks, flood waters rose knee-high, partially submerging ground-floor buildings and cars and causing untold damage. The current north-east monsoon season is usually the wettest time of the year, with almost 48 per cent of the year's rainfall occurring between November and January.

NEW ZEALAND - An “ODDBALL” El Nino pattern in the Pacific will deliver extreme weather to Mid Canterbury this summer, says Blue Skies Weather. But whether that will be drought or too much rain is impossible to tell at this stage, due to the El Nino’s behaviour making it difficult to tell which way it will swing. “This would have to be ONE OF THE LEAST PREDICTABLE EL NINO WEATHER PATTERNS I HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST 25 YEARS, it really is an oddball one." The El Nino’s variables of wind flows, ocean currents, movement of weather patterns are not tying in with each other in the way they would in a typical El Nino. If the El Nino dominated over summer it would ward off westerly weather patterns and this would cause wetter and cooler weather than usual, whereas if it peaked and then tailed off it would cause drier and hotter weather, possibly leading to drought in Canterbury. For the next six weeks they expect the El Nino to weaken slightly, causing predominantly fine and drier than normal weather, but after that it is hard to tell. The phenomenon behind the strange El Nino may be the same one causing extreme weather in other parts of the world, such as floods in England and bushfires in Australia, but it is not climate change as most understand it. It is instead “a very quiet sun” with lessened radiomagnetic output. Some research suggest it is the LOWEST OUTPUT FOR AT LEAST 100 YEARS, and the longer this goes on for the more extreme the earth’s weather could become. “We may be in a period when climate is altering naturally around the world possibly due to solar influence." The effects had been seen in Mid Canterbury in the past 12 months, with several weather events making the news. August was the HOTTEST ON RECORD, October the COLDEST FOR DECADES, while other months have featured hail and wind.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - RECORD-BREAKING EARLY SEASON SNOW hits Whistler. Crazy snowfalls have helped Whistler-Blackcomb DESTROY THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. The world-renowned ski resort and co-host for this winter’s Olympics has had a record 418cm (165in) of November snowfall as of last Thursday. The snowfall record dates back to 1979, and the previous record, set in 2006, was 416cm (164in). With a week left in the month, the previous November record should be further ‘blown out of the snow’ with another 23cm (9in) in the last 48 hours and forecasts calling for another 35-50cm (13-19 inches) to fall this week. “This is an UNPRECEDENTED start to the season...Whistler-Blackcomb is well known for the copious amount of snow it receives on an annual basis. The fact that we’re only 87cm (34 inches) from reaching the half way point of our annual average snowfall, shows how incredible the start of this season really is.” The annual average snowfall at Whistler-Blackcomb is just over 10 metres or 33 feet. “We have already received one third of our average annual snowfall for the entire season and it’s only four days into the season, it’s unbelievable!”

SPACE WEATHER-
SOUTH AFRICA - 11/21/09 - Investigations are underway after an apparent meteor was spotted over Gauteng over the weekend. People saw the bright light between 10:30pm and 11pm on Saturday night, heading towards the north of Pretoria. There were also reports of the meteor being spotted as far as Botswana. Witnesses said it was a spectacular sight. “There was a very bright explosion, where the sky lit up as if it were day time. All of a sudden we saw this blue light then a huge ball of fire." The Johannesburg Planeterium’ said there was no doubt the object was a meteor. Astronomers and scientists are still trying to find out where the meteor landed.

AUSTRALIA - 11/19/09 - Experts say a fire ball that streaked across the sky above south-east Queensland last Thursday night was a "chip off the old block of some asteroid". The meteor was spotted by people from the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and across Brisbane around 9.45pm. Witnesses said the meteor was a green glow travelling from south-east to north-west, leaving a visible trail for 10 to 15 minutes.

WESTERN U.S. - 11/18/09 - A meteor that burned up in a brilliant flash before remnants struck the ground in northern Nevada early Wednesday morning lit up Western skies for hundreds of miles. The meteor was probably about the size of an oven and traveled through the sky at about 80,000 m.p.h. The fireball was visible from several Intermountain West states. People from Utah to Yavapai County saw a green-hued meteor streaming toward Earth. The meteor came into the atmosphere at 12:07 am. A Verde Valley resident saw an "incredibly large greenish fireball, trailing green flames, and giving the entire northern sky a greenish hue...In fact, the interior of my car was green, it was so bright."

KANSAS - 11/14/09 - A biophysicist has confirmed that a black rock that fell into a backyard in Liberal was a meteorite. A 10-year-old found the 2-inch-diameter black rock Saturday after hearing what he thought was an explosion. It likely came from the atmosphere around the sun and fell as far as 100 million miles. The meteorite weighed 47 grams.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The weekly number of deaths due to the pandemic virus in Europe has nearly doubled every 2 weeks over the past 6 weeks and reached 169 last week, with a cumulative total of 670. Most of the deaths have occurred in Western Europe, but fatalities are increasing in central and Eastern Europe. "Very high intensity" flu activity was reported in Italy, Norway, and Sweden, with high intensity in nine other countries.

Two Harvard researchers write that U.S. adults with medical conditions other than pregnancy deserve better access to H1N1 vaccine. High-risk adults were left off the list of top-priority groups to be targeted in a vaccine shortage, but some have a higher risk of death than pregnant women and a far higher risk than healthy children under age 4. Even as vaccine supplies improve, high-risk adults will face competition from healthy people younger than 24.

Monday, November 23, 2009 -

Sorry no Sunday update - some unexpected things came up.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One should be just as careful in choosing one's pleasures as in avoiding calamities.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/22/09 -
5.0 TRINIDAD, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.8 OFF COAST OF LOS LAGOS, CHILE
6.2 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
11/21/09 -
5.0 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - authorities again issued a red alert in the area affected by the Galeras volcano, in the southwestern province of Nariño, after a new eruption Friday night that claimed no victims. "The level of volcanic activity at Galeras has changed to the red level,” which means that an eruption is imminent or in progress. For several days an order has been in effect to evacuate the rural area.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRAZIL - Broken boats, cars taken by the water, a whole community scared. This was the scenario in Armação Beach South Marsh in the south of the island of Santa Catarina which was hit by a giant wave on Thursday (19), formed from the strong winds that passed through Santa Catarina coast. Known as a "freak wave", the waves reached three meters. "She came and did not break, like a wall. Even the oldest never seen anything like this." With the power of the water, a vehicle was dragged, broke the door of a restaurant and almost broke into the establishment. A fisherman who has lived for 70 years on site confirms that no similar phenomenon was recorded that way in recent years. "It was only one minutes and ready. It was taking everything." At least ten vehicles were swept away by water. Seven boats were damaged - one came to stop on the dunes, 200 meters far from the sea. A number of factors contributed to the formation of the phenomenon. The main one was the wind, which peaked at 90 kilometers per hour in the afternoon of Thursday. Among the causes, in addition to winds, are generally the shape of the seabed, the shoreline (presence of islands, points, bays, etc.) and waves propagating in opposite directions to the ocean current. There is no way to specify the size of the wave, since the region does not have equipment for this purpose.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression TWENTYSIX was 403 nmi SE of Agana, Guam.

PHILIPPINES - A low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao has intensified into an active low-pressure area (ALPA), threatening Eastern Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao if it becomes a cyclone. If it intensifies further into a cyclone, it will be code-named “Urduja". It will not likely affect Metro Manila and Luzon but these areas might still have rains due to the northeast monsoon. In its 5 a.m. bulletin, Pagasa said the ALPA was estimated at 160 km east of Northern Mindanao. The northeast monsoon is still affecting extreme northern Luzon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UNITED KINGDOM - Thousands of people in flood-stricken communities are starting the working week amid widespread disruption. Sixteen bridges and at least 25 roads are closed in Cumbria, where once-short commutes will involve lengthy detours. Five secondary schools and 13 primaries in the county are shut, with many homes and businesses still cut off. About 60 people remain in reception centres. Flood warnings are in force in 22 areas of the UK but forecasters say Monday's showers should not raise river levels. Work continues on a safety review of all 1,800 bridges in Cumbria, where six crossings have already collapsed and Calva Bridge in Workington, which may be about to fall, has been condemned. People across the county have been staying with friends and relatives since more than 1,300 homes were flooded by RECORD DAILY RAINFALL last Thursday and Friday. (photos)

BRAZIL - Last week will go down in history for the country with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and a freak wave that was originally reported as a tsunami. Over 500,000 lost power and 5 were killed. (satellite photo)
The rain and strong winds that hit the Rio Grande do Sul on Thursday reached the south coast and the region of Florianopolis, Santa Catarina. At least 15 municipalities were affected. The winds reached 103 km / h. In the port of Itajai, three people suffered serious injuries after being thrown overboard with the fall of a crane, and were hospitalized. There are also records of a person slightly injured in Florianopolis, where 175 buildings were hit by the storm. In Florianópolis, South Marsh, a boat capsized, but people have been rescued. In Florianópolis, the wind knocked part of the coverage of the stadium Heriberto Hülse, the Criciúma Sports Club. The structure fell into the street and part of it was leaning on power cables. (photo)
13 photos

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
East Antarctica 'is losing ice' [maybe] - The East Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass for the last three years, according to an analysis of data from a gravity-measuring satellite mission. The scientists involved say they are "surprised" by the finding, because the giant East Antarctic sheet, unlike the west, has been thought to be stable. Other scientists say ice loss could not yet be pinned on climate change, and uncertainties in the data are large. The smaller West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing mass. These two bodies of ice contain enough water to raise sea levels by about six to seven metres (20ft) each if they melted completely. Melting the East Antarctic sheet would raise sea levels by much more - about 50-60m. But scientists have generally discounted the possibility of it happening because the region is so cold. Measurements suggest there was no net ice loss between 2002 and 2006. But since then, East Antarctica has been losing 57 billion tonnes (Gt) per year. West Antarctica is losing 132Gt per year, and Greenland is losing 273Gt. Measuring Antarctic ice loss is a tricky issue because the continent itself is rising and deforming. It is not clear what physical processes could be driving any loss of mass here, although it is not simply melting due to high air temperatures, because temperatures are well below zero. (maps & photo)

Warming's impacts - Since the 1997 international accord to fight global warming, climate change has worsened and accelerated - beyond some of the grimmest of warnings made back then. As the world has talked for a dozen years about what to do next, new ship passages opened through the once frozen summer sea ice of the Arctic. In Greenland and Antarctica, ice sheets have lost trillions of tons of ice. Mountain glaciers in Europe, South America, Asia and Africa are shrinking faster than before. The world's oceans have risen by about an inch and a half. Droughts and wildfires have turned more severe worldwide, from the U.S. West to Australia to the Sahel desert of North Africa. Species now in trouble because of changing climate include, not just the polar bear, but also fragile butterflies, colorful frogs and entire stands of North American pine forests. Temperatures over the past 12 years are 0.4 of a degree warmer than the dozen years leading up to 1997. Even the gloomiest climate models back in the 1990s didn't forecast results quite this bad so fast. "The latest science is telling us we are in more trouble than we thought." "The message on the science is that we know a lot more than we did in 1997 and it's all negative. Things are much worse than the models predicted."

Climate change scientists have been manipulating and fixing data according to bloggers that are spreading information contained in hundreds of hacked emails. 62 mb worth of emails were hacked from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), part of Britain’s University of East Anglia. “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data...on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Signs of a peak in pandemic flu activity continue in several Northern Hemisphere locations, though transmission is still intensifying in Canada and northern and southern Europe. Sharp increases were noted in Kazakhstan and Israel; Colombia and Peru also reported increases. More than 99% of subtyped influenza A viruses in Europe are the pandemic strain, and a decreasing number of seasonal viruses are being detected in China and Southeast Asia.

GlaxoSmithKline has withdrawn a 170,000-dose lot of H1N1 vaccine distributed in Canada because of an unusual number of allergic reactions. Health officials reported six anaphylactic reactions to doses from the lot, versus an expected rate of only one or two. The reactions were brief and all the patients recovered.

Clusters of resistant H1N1 cases reported in UK, US.

Asthma "appears to be a significant risk factor for severe disease" in children with H1N1 flu.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Five Crowns Marketing, Brawley, California is recalling cantaloupes packed under the Majesty label because of a potential health risk due to possible contamination of Salmonella.
-Service Smoked Fish Corp. of Brooklyn, NY, is recalling some Brooklyn's BEST brand SMOKED NOVA SALMON because they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

Friday, November 20, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Once bitten by a snake, one is scared all his/her life at the mere sight of a rope.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/19/09 -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -
MISSISSIPPI - 11/17/09 & 11/18/09 - Sonic boom’s source still a mystery. The boom that rattled windows in Pascagoula and Moss Point, swamped police phone lines and brought entire neighborhoods of people out of their homes to see what was happening was almost as much a mystery Wednesday as it was Tuesday night when it happened. There were four booms on Tuesday. One at 8 p.m. rattled the east side of Jackson County all the way up to the rural northern regions. Then there was a series of three booms about 9 p.m., felt and heard in parts of Ocean Springs and Gautier to the west and in central Jackson County, as well as Pascagoula and Moss Point in the east. Then on Wednesday evening at about 8 p.m. at least one boom was felt in Ocean Springs, Vancleave and Pascagoula. “You could hear the walls rattle it was so loud." A Moss Point resident said it moved pictures on her wall and caused her dogs to bark; a student at Trent Lott Academy in Pascagoula said his whole neighborhood came out of their houses and looked toward the Chevron Refinery. Another said the boom set off a neighbor’s home security alarm.
Keesler Air Force base told city police around 8:45 p.m. Tuesday the boom was caused by military jets on a training exercise in the Gulf, but that the jets were not from Keesler. On Wednesday security at the base reconfirmed the jets had contacted the tower Tuesday night and were told there was a training exercise. But what jets, and whose jets were flying at supersonic speeds over the Gulf at night? Keesler didn’t know. Pensacola Naval Air Station’s Air Operations on the base said they weren’t flying anything fast enough to cause a sonic boom at present. As it turns out, Eglin is the base that controls military training ranges - airspace over the Gulf of Mexico used for military maneuvers in this part of the Gulf. Eglin’s public relations office looked at the schedule for Tuesday night and said, “In our air space at those times all we had in the area were A-10s, and they’re not fast enough to break the sound barrier.” The A-10s were firing guns, but did not discharge any heavy explosives during the maneuver.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH AFRICA - heavy rains, biting cold and strong winds battered the coastline. Roofs were blown off houses, and homes were washed away in parts of the province. A motorist was killed when a car was swept into a river in Port Shepstone. The SA Weather Service Wednesday issued a warning of rainfall exceeding 50mm in KwaZulu-Natal. It is UNUSUAL, but not unheard of, for KwaZulu-Natal to be hit by heavy rain at this time of year, and for there to be snowfall on the Drakensberg.
There was panic in KwaZulu-Natal after a hoax e-mail did the rounds, warning of a cyclone approaching the province. But Cyclone Roberta would not make landfall. "There is no tropical cyclone headed for the southern coastline."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - this month's heatwave was caused by a strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea blocking cold fronts to the southeast. "Instead of getting good bursts of cool southerly air over the inland, it's received virtually no cool air from the south and it has just got hotter and hotter. The Spring time is characterised by rapidly moving fronts across the Southern Ocean and it's QUITE RARE to get a significant blocking event such as what we've had. You're more likely to get it in January or February or even early Autumn." A combination of unseasonally high temperatures, strong winds, bushfire smoke and thunderstorms caused flight delays around the country. A cold change swept through Melbourne today, bringing high winds. Gusts of up to 100km/h were recorded at Essendon Airport.

SPACE WEATHER -
Newly-discovered asteroid 2009 WJ6 is flying past Earth today only 110,000 miles away - about half the distance to the Moon. The time of closest approach will be 1100 UT.
The electric-blue "mystery cloud" seen twisting over Colorado and Utah at daybreak on Nov. 18th is no longer a mystery. It was asteroid debris. On Oct. 7, 2008, asteroid 2008 TC3 hit the atmosphere and exploded over Sudan, creating a cloud. On Nov. 18, 2009, a similar-sized asteroid hit the atmosphere and exploded over Colorado and Utah in a flash of light that startled onlookers across at least eight states. Hours later, daybreak revealed the "mystery cloud" which looks just like the debris from 2008 TC3. Both clouds resemble icy noctilucent clouds that form naturally around Earth's poles during summer or in the aftermath of rocket launches. Researchers have long suspected that space dust can prompt the formation of noctilucent clouds by acting as nucleation points for high-altitude ice crystals. (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

CHINA has promised severe punishment for officials caught concealing deaths from H1N1 flu after a medical expert said suspect cases may have been held back by local governments and that he did not believe the national H1N1 death toll of 53. The Health Ministry said China had adopted a new H1N1 accounting method earlier this month. If a person was confirmed with H1N1 and then died, the case should be reported as death from H1N1, whether or not there was another condition. The H1N1 flu strain affects the respiratory tract. Patients who become severely ill or die typically suffer from pneumonia, either brought on directly by the virus or due to secondary bacterial infections. A ministry official said it would no longer issue cumulative tolls, only new cases and deaths. That will make it difficult to determine the actual extent of H1N1 deaths in China, which based on previous figures had been statistically much lower than in other countries.
H1N1 cases in China have risen sharply, despite aggressive quarantine measures, the World Health Organization's top official in China said. He said the 70,000 cases and 53 deaths cited by the government are only "minimum numbers." But China's health minister said the control measures helped buy time to develop a vaccine, which is now being given to 1.5 million people a day in an effort to cover 90 million - 7% of the population - by the end of the year.

Spike in cases prompts Hungary to declare epidemic - Hungarian officials declared a flu epidemic yesterday after illness reports rose more than 30% in a week, putting cases above the country's epidemic threshold. The number of flu hospitalizations rose to 172. Hungary launched a pandemic vaccine campaign in October using its own vaccine, which is based on a mock-up produced for the H5N1 virus.

Thai official says second wave starting - The second round of the H1N1 epidemic has begun in Thailand. 30% of 200 students tested in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima were infected. An estimated 8.4 million Thais were infected in the first wave of the outbreak, and the death toll reached 185 yesterday. The government bought 2 million doses of vaccine from France and is considering buying 800,000 more.

Analysis reveals two genetic clusters of H1N1 viruses - German researchers report that a genetic analysis of 300 pandemic H1N1 viruses isolated earlier this year shows that "two closely related but distinct clusters" circulated in most countries simultaneously. Differences were found in the genes for the two surface proteins and four internal proteins. None of the differences involved parts of the genome responsible for known biological functions, and the importance of the findings remains to be determined.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
The Procter & Gamble Company is voluntarily recalling three lots of its Vicks Sinex nasal spray in three countries: the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The company is taking this precautionary step after finding the bacteria B. cepacia in a small amount of product made at its plant in Gross Gerau, Germany.

Thursday, November 19, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Once on a tiger's back, it is hard to alight.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/18/09 -
5.6 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.4 BOUVET ISLAND REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone ANJA was 590 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

The 2009-2010 cyclone season has started in the Indian Ocean, with the appearance of the first cyclone called "Anja" on Wednesday. The designated names for the hurricanes that will form within the cyclone basin of the Indian Ocean during 2010 are Anja, Bongani, Cleo, David, Edzani, Gelane, Hubert, Imani, Joel, Kanja, Lunda, Mohono, Nigel, Olympe, Pamela, Quentin, Rahim, Savana, Themba, Uyapo, Viviane, Walter, Xangy, Yemurai and Zanele.

Tuesday morning, Cyclone Anja was a powerful Category 4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Wind shear then gave Anja a strong "punch in the gut" as the storm has weakened to a Category 1 cyclone. At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. ET) on November 17, Anja's maximum sustained winds were sustained at 75 knots (86 mph). The storm seems to be spreading out as it is weakening, as tropical storm force winds extended out to 115 miles from the center (earlier Tuesday, they only extended 75 miles out from the center). Anja is predicted to continue weakening and move harmlessly toward the southeast over the open waters of the south Indian Ocean.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Flooding warnings for parts of UK - People in north-west England and south-west Scotland face a high risk of their homes being damaged by flooding, the Environment Agency is warning. There are 25 flood warnings in place across the UK, but Cumbria and Dumfries and Galloway are at greatest risk today. North Wales has already been hit by heavy rain and has had some flooding. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings, with up to 250mm of rain (9.8in) possible on higher ground. An Environment Agency spokesman also warned of a possible tidal surge today in the northern Irish Sea which could increase the flood risk along the west coast from Aberystwyth northwards. The winds will gust up to 70mph (112km/h) in some areas, but the extremely wet weather is the main concern.

CANARY ISLANDS - Tuesday, heavy rain in Las Palmas on Gran Canaria flooded residential areas. Tenerife was also badly effected by the extreme weather. Some schools on the island have closed. The authorities are calling it the WORST RAIN IN 40 YEARS. In some places 100 litres of rain has fallen per square metre, causing traffic chaos. Cars have even been washed off the roads by the flooding.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEPAL - The lingering after-effect of Cyclone Phyan, which lashed off the western coast in India last week, is being felt in the Kathmandu Valley. As per the forecast, the FREAK weather - overcast sky coupled with appreciable dip in daytime temperature and intermittent drizzle - will persist over the next few days. The mercury will plunge lower than normal. A meteorologist explained the causes behind the freak weather pattern. “Usually, the onset of winter brings in the domineering Westerly wind, which triggers rainfall. Besides, we’re still reeling under the residual impact of Cyclone Phyan."

SPACE WEATHER-
WESTERN U.S. - 11/18/09 - something exploded in the atmosphere above the western United States. Witnesses in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho say the fireball "turned night into day" and issued shock waves that "shook the ground" when it exploded just after midnight Mountain Standard Time. The fireball was so bright it actually turned the sky noontime blue. Although the fireball appeared during the Leonid meteor shower, it was not a Leonid. Infrasound recordings of the blast suggest a small asteroid hitting Earth's atmosphere and exploding with an energy of 0.5 to 1 kiloton of TNT. Experts liken the event to the Park Forest fireball of 2003, which scattered dozens of meteorites across a suburb of Chicago. Meteorites are likely from this fireball as well.
Approximately 6 hours after the fireball, people in Utah and Colorado got another surprise. As the sun rose over those states, a twisting electric-blue cloud appeared in the dawn sky: "They were strangely bright relative to the rest of the sky." The cloud strongly resembles artificial noctilucent clouds formed at high altitudes by rocket and shuttle launches. Yet there was no (officially reported) rocket launch at dawn on Nov. 18th. Could the cloud be associated with the fireball? The geographical coincidence is certainly striking. Debris from the fireball should have dissipated by sunrise, but the cloud remains unexplained and a connection to the fireball cannot yet be dismissed. (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

With 6.6 million doses of H1N1 vaccine given so far, Canada has seen only 36 serious adverse reactions. One person died of an anaphylactic reaction, but it was not yet certain if the vaccine caused it. Serious events have also included fevers and convulsions. 20% of Canada's 31 million people have been vaccinated, the highest proportion of any country.
Diverse public health programs in Canada, such as support groups and food inspections, are being postponed or suspended as officials redirect staff to H1N1 vaccination efforts, a plan that has been in the works for months. Health authorities in several provinces have postponed non-flu vaccination programs.

Santa workers and volunteers are seeking ways to prevent novel H1N1 infection during the holiday season. One trade group urged its members to use hand sanitizer and take vitamins and the public to keep sick children home. The president of another group asked state lawmaker to consider prioritizing Santa for H1N1 vaccine, given that many are exposed to sick children and are obese, which has been identified as a high-risk condition.

The World Health Organization says that preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in pandemic H1N1 viruses taken from patients in Ukraine. Genetic sequencing done in Britain and the US on 34 samples shows that the virus is similar to the one used to make novel H1N1 vaccine, reconfirming the vaccine's efficacy.

US Department of Agriculture researchers report that the pandemic H1N1 virus does not easily infect poultry or spread among them. The researchers inoculated chickens, turkeys, ducks, and quail with the virus. Most of the birds showed no sign of infection; some quail were infected but did not pass the virus to other quail. Two turkey flocks in Chile were infected earlier this year, but those may have been isolated events.

Even as drug makers promise to support Washington's health care overhaul by shaving $8 billion a year off the nation's drug costs after the legislation takes effect, the industry has been raising its prices at the fastest rate in years.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 -

Very little to report today.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One never needs their humor as much a when they argue with a fool.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/17/09 -
5.6 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
6.6 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone ANJA was 590 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - Central Queensland residents are preparing for possible evacuations after authorities warned two fast-moving bushfires were headed their way.
A grass fire is burning at Port Augusta where the fire danger rating is 154, which is 54 points above the newly-introduced "catastrophic level".

Average global temperatures are on course to rise by up to 6C without urgent action to curb CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions rose by a quarter in the last decade, according to research. Emissions rose by 29% between 2000 and 2008.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Learning is a treasure that will follow its owner everywhere.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/16/09 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - After spewing ash at least thrice last Wednesday, Mayon Volcano emitted a crater glow that grew more intense and was visible as far as 15 kilometers away Saturday night. Mayon’s surface remains inflated despite the series of ash or phreatic explosions. “This means that magmatic pressure inside the volcano is sustained. But all these activities are still within alert level 2.” At least eight tremors were recorded in the past 24 hours, while the volcano’s sulfur dioxide emission was measured at 514 tons, above the normal volume of 500 tons per day. At least 700 families have been evacuated and provided relief aid. Residents within a radius of six to seven kilometers from Mayon’s crater have been readied for evacuation should the situation worsen.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
OREGON - A High Surf Advisory and High Wind Warnings are in effect, and will remain so until 10:00 a.m. today for the entire Oregon coastline and the Coast Range. A series of waves from a strong Pacific system will generate large seas and high winds along the Oregon Coast. During the storm, seas will climb to 23-27 feet, with periods around 11 seconds. Seas have already reached 23 feet off the mouth of the Columbia River, and would peak closer to the value of 27 feet last night, during the strongest winds. These large seas will create dangerous beach conditions, with waves pummeling the surf zone which will only be exacerbated by the prominence of the enhanced Lunar Tidal Cycle. Due to the magnitude of the high tides, waves will travel much further up the beach than usual, creating a dangerous situation in which extreme caution must be exercised. There is also a High Surf Advisory beginning at 4:00 p.m. Monday through 4 a.m. Wednesday for the South Central Oregon Coast. A heavy swell will bring high surf to the Southern Oregon Coast with breaker heights expected to build to around 25 feet, persisting through today and slowly subsiding tonight. The most hazardous conditions will occur today, as the predominant wave direction veers from Southwest early in the morning to West by late morning.
A High Wind Warning is in effect until 10:00 a.m. for the South Washington and North Oregon coasts. A prolonged period of strong south winds are expected, with winds of 35 to 45 mph, and gusts up to 70 mph. Numerous gusts to 65 mph have already been clocked on Monday. On the open beaches, sustained winds of 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 90 mph are likely. The winds will then decease early this morning, once a strong cold front moves onshore, and the very strong offshore low moves into British Columbia.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone ANJA was 623 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.

Anja is the first tropical cyclone of the southern Hemisphere cyclone season. After forming as a tropical storm over the Southern Indian Ocean on November 14, Anja strengthened to a cyclone one day later. By November 16, Anja was a Category 3 cyclone, with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (195 kilometers per hour), and gusts up to 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour). (nice satellite photo)

FIJI - With eleven cyclones predicted to form in the Pacific region, the DISMAC office said people must not be complacent and be prepared for anything. The Acting Directorsaid in the past, people have been caught off guard and the consequence of being complacent has been disastrous. They are also closely monitoring the UNUSUAL WEATHER the country has been getting for the past few months.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - South Australia is bracing for catastrophic bushfire conditions ahead of more extreme heat tomorrow. Temperatures throughout the state are predicted to reach the low 40s in some areas, with Adelaide forecast to have a top of 39C. Similar conditions will follow on Thursday, with Adelaide's maximum expected to reach 41C. The forecast prompted authorities to issue a bushfire warning of "CATASTROPHIC" conditions in the Flinders and north-western pastoral districts - the FIRST TIME THE TERM HAS BEEN USED. New bushfire advice systems have been adopted for this summer, with "catastrophic" rated above "extreme" and "severe". The catastrophic category rates the risk as similar to those conditions prevalent on Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires last year. In such conditions, the Country Fire Service says, any fire is highly likely to be fast moving and uncontrollable, with residents' safest option being to leave their properties early. They said they HAD NEVER SEEN FUEL LOADS AS HIGH IN NOVEMBER BEFORE, and are especially concerned about bushfires in regional SA in the next two days. Last week Adelaide sweltered through eight days of temperatures in the high 30s, giving the city its first November heatwave on record.

The Great Barrier Reef has only a 50 per cent chance of survival if global CO2 emissions are not reduced at least 25 per cent by 2020, a coalition of Australia's top reef and climate scientists said today.

VENEZUELA's President says he will join a team of Cuban scientists on flights to "bomb clouds" to create rain amid a severe drought that has aroused public anger due to water and electricity rationing. The Cubans have arrived in Venezuela and were preparing to fly specially equipped aircraft above the Orinoco river. "I'm going in a plane; any cloud that crosses me, I'll zap it so that it rains." Venezuela produces much of its electricity from hydroelectric projects, including the giant El Guri dam close to the Orinoco.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The flu drug Tamiflu is now contaminating rivers downstream of sewage-treatment facilities in Japan. The source is urinary excretion from people taking Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). Researchers are quite concerned that birds exposed to these waterborne residues could develop and spread drug-resistant strains of seasonal and avian flu. Making matters worse, previous studies have confirmed that water treatment removes zero percent of this drug. U.S. policy is more conservative than Japan’s when it comes to Tamiflu use.

There is no safety data or precedent for receiving 3-4 flu shots in one season. The current recommendations by doctors and health officials are UNPRECEDENTED, and highly experimental. Some people, including children under the age of 10, are urged to get as many as four flu shots this year: two shots for seasonal flu and one or two more for swine flu, depending on a few different factors. Never before have this many flu shots been given in a single season.

Choose one??:
Crisis just beginning? - In the Ukraine, a strain of the flu has infected 1.4 million people. The death toll is at 315 people as of November 16. The World Bank Database gives the estimated population for the Ukraine as a little over 46 million. While the percentages do not appear high, the reported symptoms and contagion patterns of this flu are of concern to some doctors. "We don't believe it's H1N1 swine flu. Neither do we know what kind of pneumonia it is." Doctors are likening this strain of the flu to the Spanish flu, which included internal hemorrhage and edema in the lungs. Samples of the Ukraine flu virus were provided to a British lab, for testing to conclusively subtype the virus. Learning whether the virus is a mutated form of the H1N1 swine flu, or an entirely new type of flu virus, will help health officials and members of the public take necessary measures for protection from this deadly disease. [A similar but even more alarming article is at this link.]

Crisis over and overblown? The World Health Organization announced Friday that the swine flu illnesses and deaths so far in Ukraine - 265 fatalities nationwide, with 87 in the Lviv region - were statistically no worse than those in other countries. Early findings are that serious cases mounted because the sick avoided hospitalization until their illness was dangerously advanced, stockpiles of Tamiflu were locked in centralized locations and the supply of ventilators fell short. With the worst of the health care crisis here past, many in Ukraine’s western provinces are trying to puzzle out what led to it. Doctors blame the news media and politicians for spreading fear and misinformation. Ukrainians rely heavily on home remedies, and that is what they did for the third and fourth weeks of October, resorting to garlic and lemons and waiting so long to check into hospitals that by the time they did, many were beyond treatment.

Monday, November 16, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The saving man becomes the free man.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/15/09 -
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.1 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.1 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.0 TAJIKISTAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone ANJA was 409 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.

Cyclone ANJA was at about 1020 Km to the North East of Rodrigues Island and is assumed to be stationary. For now the cyclone is not expected to affect Mauritius, with a track path forecast to turn away from the area. (satellite photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - Little relief from the scorching heatwave. A blistering week is ahead as a heatwave hits most parts of New South Wales today, with temperatures climbing above 40C and the Rural Fire Service declaring a total fire ban across much of the state. Melbourne has sweltered through its HOTTEST START TO THE MONTH EVER, with an average maximum temperature of 29.5C - a whopping 7.5C above the average. Another string of hot days on the horizon means beating the current record average maximum temperature of 27.85C in 1982 is now looking likely. "We are NOT JUST BREAKING RECORDS, WE ARE SMASHING THEM." Melbourne has already had six days above 30C and another three are forecast for the next week. The hot weather has created havoc with crops -- in the Wimmera up to $30 million worth of lentils was wiped out in just a couple of days. "It literally cooked them."

U.S. is Heating Up - The United States has experienced TWICE AS MANY RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES as it has record-breaking low temperatures in the past decade. In the continental U.S., 291,237 RECORD HIGHS were set between 2000 and September 2009. Only 142,420 RECORD LOWS were set over the same span. If there wasn't a heating trend, there would be roughly the same number of record highs as there have been record lows. But the U.S. has experienced relatively mild winters and intense heat waves.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

CDC cites some signs of ebbing US flu activity - Visits to the CDC network of sentinel doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) declined last week for the second week in a row, and the number of states with widespread flu activity dropped from 48 to 46. On the other hand, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and flu both continued to climb. In addition, another 26 pediatric deaths linked to confirmed H1N1 cases were reported, bringing the total since April to 156. The total of 156 is higher than the number for any seasonal flu epidemic of the past 5 years. The proportion of deaths related to pneumonia and flu in the CDC's 122-city mortality reporting system reached 7.7% last week, which was above the epidemic threshold of 6.8% for the week. The percentage has been above the threshold for 6 weeks in a row. However, charts in the FluView report show that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths related to influenza of all types both dropped last week compared with the week before. The charts indicate something in excess of 3,000 hospitalizations and between 100 and 150 deaths last week. The CDC says that more than 99% of viruses in circulation are the 2009 H1N1. The FluView report says deaths due to confirmed flu from Aug 30 to Nov 7 totaled 877, and there were 22,364 hospitalizations related to confirmed flu in that period. Those numbers include only confirmed flu cases. Yesterday the CDC presented a new estimation method, in part to allow for untested cases. Using that method, officials estimated total US H1N1 deaths since April at 3,900.

Sunday, November 15, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
You can only go halfway into the darkest forest; then you are coming out the other side.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/14/09 -
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
6.1 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.5 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
5.3 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
11/13/09 -
5.0 COSTA RICA
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.8 SANTA CRUZ, BOLIVIA
6.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

RUSSIA has grown even larger recently thanks to an earthquake and a volcanic eruption in its seismically active far eastern regions. Russia gained 4.5 square kilometers (2.8 square miles) from a 2007 quake on Sakhalin Island and from lava flows this summer on uninhabited Matua Island, both of which lie north of Japan. "As a result of the earthquake, part of the sea floor was lifted and became dry ground. The area of the new territory is nearly three square kilometers." Another 1.5 square kilometers appeared on Matua Island after a huge eruption by the Sarychev Peak volcano that began in June.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - A lava flow has started to come down the slope of Eurasia's highest volcano, the Klyuchevskoy, on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's Far East. The Klyuchevskoy, which lies 220 miles north of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, is one of the largest active volcanoes in the world and reaches an altitude of 15,584 feet. It erupts about every 2 years. "A small flow of lava has started trickling down the south-eastern slope of the Klyuchevskoy after magma has filled its crater to the brink." The volcano continued to throw red-hot rocks to a height of 200 meters (over 650 feet). The Klyuchevskoy started a new active cycle with an eruption on February 15, 2007. The current eruption started in August after several months of relevant inactivity. Unlike many others, it started slow, but its intensity is rapidly growing. Seismological stations near the Klyuchevskoy register hundreds of small tremors in the area every day. The volcano is dangerous only to tourists at this point, although lava flows and high-altitude ash emissions could soon threaten air traffic in the region. There are more than 150 volcanoes on Kamchatka, 29 of them active.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone ANJA was 389 nmi SSW of Diego Garcia.

INDIA - Days after the cyclone Phyan ravaged the Goan coastline claiming 68 lives, Goa now stands on the brink of facing another cyclone building up south east of Kerala. A system is building up in the Arabian Sea. “A clear picture could come out in the next 48 hours."

U.S. - Widespread flooding reported along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic region. Wind and waves from the powerful northeaster that pummeled the Mid-Atlantic coast last week ate away as much as a quarter of Ocean City's dune line. High tides and as much as eight inches of rain flooded streams and closed roads in Southern Maryland and the state's Lower Eastern Shore. "This is probably the worst since Isabel [in 2003], but three feet lower than Isabel." Intensified by the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, the big coastal storm lingered, pounding the Atlantic coast from the Carolinas to New Jersey. Flooding closed streets and bridges along the coast. Three motorists died in weather-related crashes in Virginia. The powerful storm began moving out to sea Friday after raking the East Coast for three days.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Storm batters southern England, bringing floods and 100mph winds - Gale-force winds of up to 100mph battered Britain yesterday as one of the worst storms of the year swept across the country. Wales, southern and eastern England bore the brunt of the weather. Winds reaching speeds of 70mph were recorded in parts of London and the home counties, strong enough to cause property damage and bring down trees and branches. "This is pretty severe...It's quite RARE for the winds to be that strong inland; it certainly doesn't happen very often. The storm developed off the west coast and was fed by the still warm autumn sea temperatures." Heavy rain led to coastal flooding in the south of the country.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
INDIA - an UNUSUALLY WARM November is being blamed on Cyclone Phyan. The last couple of days have been the hottest that November has seen in the last two years, leaving those out on the streets sweating and bothered. Maximum and minimum temperatures across the state have been five to six degrees Celsius above normal this November, leading to a increase in viral fever cases. “Phyan not only increased normal temperatures but also brought a cloud cover over the region from the South-West, which is UNUSUAL for this time of the year." The maximum and minimum temperatures of Ranchi on November 9 were 29.4 degree Celsius and 17.8 degree Celsius respectively. On the 14th it reached 30.5 degree Celsius and 20.0 degree Celsius. Similarly, the maximum and minimum temperature in Jamshedpur on the 14th was 34.7 degree Celsius and 22.9 degree Celsius respectively. “This is an ABNORMAL SITUATION. Both the maximum and minimum are 6-7 degree Celsius above normal.” Some weather scientists, however, attributed the phenomenon to global warming. “Since 2008, there has been a shift in Jharkhand’s weather pattern, proving that the state has been affected by global warming." The unusual weather has brought forth health issues across the region. “We are many viral fever cases, which during this season is not normal.”

A large iceberg was spotted off an island about halfway between Antarctica and Australia on Thursday, a RARE sight in waters so far north. The iceberg, about 160 feet high and 1,640 feet long, is probably part of one of several larger icebergs that broke off Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf between 2000 and 2002.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Deaths After Swine Flu Shot, China - Chinese health officials reported on Friday the first deaths in people who received the H1N1 vaccine. The Ministry of Health announced that the two people, including one teacher from Hunan province, died hours after receiving their inoculations. A preliminary autopsy revealed that the teacher died of an apparent heart attack while playing basketball, and that the death was "a coincidental medical incident" and not related to the vaccine. No details on the second victim have been released so far. As they conduct an autopsy investigation into the second death, Chinese health officials have pulled all vaccines manufactured in the same batch used to inoculate the teacher. In early September, China became the first country to begin swine flu inoculations. But by the end of October, 54% of Chinese residents reported in a China Daily survey that they would not get the H1N1 vaccine because of concerns about the shot's safety. So far, China reports about 36 deaths and 62,800 H1N1 cases - compared with U.S. government estimates of 4,000 American deaths and 22 million infections. Since September, 12 million Chinese have received the pandemic flu shot. China plans to immunize 65 million citizens, or 5% of the country's population, by the end of the year.

France reports GBS in vaccinated health worker - a young female healthcare worker was diagnosed with mild Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) 6 days after she received a pandemic flu vaccine. Hers is one of very few cases that have been reported in H1N1 vaccine recipients. 1,700 GBS cases are reported in France each year and an October poll showed 17% of French respondents planned to get vaccinated against the pandemic virus.

An analysis by Texas health officials finds that the state's Hispanics are being hit disproportionately hard by H1N1 flu. Hispanics make up 37% of the population but accounted for 52% of the 95 H1N1-rlelated deaths through Oct 17. Several risk factors for severe H1N1 disease, including pregnancy, diabetes, and possibly obesity, are more common among Hispanics.

Friday, November 13, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
No wind, no waves.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/12/09 -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.8 FIJI REGION

CHILE - A strong earthquake struck northern Chile early today, briefly knocking out power to a city but otherwise causing no major damages.

VOLCANOES -
A study of bubbles trapped in pumice rock suggests it's a lot easier for volcanoes to erupt than we think, say Australian researchers.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

Tropical Cyclone Phyan underwent rapid weakening while moving north-northeast over land on Thursday and was traced as a low-pressure area over southwest Madhya Pradesh. The Phyan remnant dropped fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the west coast, madhya Maharashtra and west Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IDA - a huge coastal storm is inundating the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, most likely causing a historic flooding event, as the remnants of Ida merge with a high pressure system, creating a powerful pressure gradient, which is currently generating tropical storm force winds, causing ferocious waves, dropping buckets of rain and raising water levels, leading to flooding. The very slow storm motion, in and of itself, is going to cause rainfall totals 3x greater than a typical total rainfall for a wet November. Almost 10 inches have already been reported in some places. This system is offering basically the most destructive elements of a hurricane, without it being a hurricane. (maps & photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - heavy snowfall has led to the deaths of 38 people in road accidents and collapsed buildings. The deaths included four pupils in schools that collapsed. Nineteen people were killed in traffic accidents that also stranded thousands of motorists. The HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FOR DECADES in northern China snarled road traffic across the region and forced delays or the cancellation of hundreds of flights from airports in several cities, including Beijing. The storms were tapering off today with road, rail and air traffic beginning to return to normal.
Officials have said the two storms in Beijing were artificially induced, sparking anger among capital-area residents, but the extent of the weather manipulation efforts remains unclear. In some places this week's snowstorms were the biggest in up to 60 years, leaving up to one million people in need of some form of disaster assistance. Major highways in north China have been shut down, leaving at least 10,000 vehicles and up to 30,000 people stranded on roads in Shanxi alone.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
The Greenland ice sheet is losing its mass faster than in previous years and making an increasing contribution to sea level rise, a study has confirmed. Melting of the entire sheet would raise sea levels globally by about 7m (20ft). For the period 2000-2008, melting Greenland ice raised sea levels by an average of about 0.46mm per year. Since 2006, that has increased to 0.75mm per year. The new research shows that in Greenland, about half the loss comes from faster flow to the oceans, and the other half from changes on the ice sheet itself - principally surface melting. Another analysis of satellite data, published in September, showed that of 111 fast-moving Greenland glaciers studied, 81 were thinning at twice the rate of the slow-moving ice beside them. "Since 2000, there's clearly been an accelerating loss of mass [from the ice sheet]. But we've had three very warm summers, and that's enhanced the melt considerably." In total, sea levels are rising by about 3mm per year, principally because seawater is expanding as it warms. "It does show that the [ice loss] trend has accelerated, and the reported contribution to sea level rise also shows a significant acceleration - so if you multiply these numbers up it puts us well BEYOND the IPCC estimates for 2100."

SPACE WEATHER-
CANADA - 11/7/09 - People throughout British Columbia were treated to a spectacular light show Saturday after what's believed to be a meteor lit up the sky. "We were shocked … I mean, it wasn't what you'd expect, but it was bright white, with red and green and some blue colours, with a bit of a trail behind it and it was a large fireball. [It was] approximately what the size of the moon would have been if we were looking at the moon." The intense light only lasted for about three seconds. The streak of light was also seen about 500 kilometres northeast of Comox, near Vanderhoof. This type of event is not unusual. "These are happening all the time. We've had some very spectacular fireballs in the Malayasia area just a few weeks ago. Earlier this year, there was a spectacular fireball that actually ended up in meteorites over Sudan, and a few weeks ago we had one over Vancouver, so these sorts of things are happening all the time." Astronomers will use the sightings in the hopes of triangulating the spot where the rock may have landed.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Swine flu has killed nearly 4,000 people in the US, including 540 children, officials said after devising a new counting method. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the new system is based on more precise figures provided by 10 states. The previous estimated death toll from the H1N1 virus in the US was 672. The new estimated death toll for children is four times higher than the previous estimate. Latest figures show about 22 million Americans contracted the virus in six months with some 98,000 hospitalised. "This is just the first six months and I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise." Although still imprecise, the new statistics provide "a bigger picture of what has been going on in the first six months of the pandemic..We will be updating the toll that the pandemic has taken... about every three to four weeks." 41.6 million more doses of swine flu vaccine had been made available on Thursday for distribution around the country. The global death toll from the flu pandemic passed the 6,000 mark last week.

CDC study finds no protective effect of seasonal flu shot - A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found no evidence that seasonal flu vaccine was protective against the H1N1 virus. Overall vaccine effectiveness was found to be minus-10% but varied widely by age-group. The results, combined with others, suggest that seasonal flu vaccine neither raises nor lowers the risk of H1N1 infection.
Seasonal flu shot may protect against H1N1 Contrary to most other reports, a study of H1N1 flu cases in Mexico suggests that seasonal flu vaccine may have had a protective effect. Risk of infection was 35% lower in those who had received seasonal flu vaccine.

H5N1? - Autopsies of 15 Mexican patients who died of suspected novel H1N1 infections found the virus in 5 of them. Lung tissue was heavier than normal and solid. Four had upper-airway hallmarks seen in seasonal flu cases, but all five had pulmonary damage and interstitial lesions typically seen with H5N1 infections. Two patients showed evidence of other organ involvement seen in lethal H5N1 cases.

The aggressive-and widely protested-quarantine measures China has used to fight the H1N1 virus may have helped slow the disease. Although cases have mounted recently, China has not yet had a major epidemic. The US Embassy said 2,046 Americans had been quarantined in China through October.

Thursday, November 12, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The palest ink is better than the best memory.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/11/09 -
5.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 IONIAN SEA

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon Volcano rumbled and spewed ash a kilometer into the air Wednesday morning but the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said there is no need to raise the alert level. However, Phivolcs advised communities near the restive volcano in Legazpi City, Albay, to be prepared to evacuate when needed. It was THE FIRST TIME THAT RUMBLING SOUNDS WERE HEARD from Mayon as it spewed ash. “There were two other explosions last Sept. 15 and Oct. 28 but these were not accompanied by rumbling. But the rumbling sound is common for an ABNORMAL volcano." Mayon’s latest activities were more powerful than earlier explosions but these still fall within Alert Level 2. Alert Level 3 is only raised when a volcano shows “an increased tendency towards eruption, with relatively high unrest." Phivolcs said that incandescent rock fragments at the upper slope were observed. “Ash column was not observed due to cloud cover. Field investigation conducted after the event showed ash fall drifted towards the southwest quadrant of the volcano due to the prevailing northeast monsoon." Phivolcs said it also recorded 20 volcanic earthquakes for the past 24 hours. Mt. Mayon which has been on Alert Level 2 status since July this year.
Meanwhile, a tectonic earthquake measuring 4.8 in the Richter scale shook Agusan del Norte early morning Wednesday with no reports of injury or damage as a result of the quake. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone PHYAN was 43 nmi E of Bombay, India.

Cyclone Phyan, which crossed the Konkan as well as the Mumbai region of India on Wednesday, was the FIRST CYCLONIC STORM IN THE REGION IN NOVEMBER FOR 43 YEARS. "This kind of storm is not very common in November. The last such storm in November was in 1966." Phyan was the result of a deep depression over the east central Arabian Sea which covered into a storm by Tuesday night and then moved towards Mumbai on Wednesday. "The cyclone will move towards the sea again. Its intensity will weaken in 48 hours and rainfall should lessen over the next two days."

IDA - A tropical system can sometimes bring more widespread problems when it dissipates. This is the case with the storm formerly known as Ida. As this circulation interacts with strong Canadian High Pressure to the north, the increased pressure gradient results in strong winds from the east. That enhances the rain and high waves. This is a slow mover, so a prolonged stormy pattern will last into the weekend. Inland winds will be gusty. They should average 20-30 mph but could gust close to 50mph during the height of the storm. Eastern North Carolina is forecasted to receive over 9 inches of rain, which will result in widespread flooding. The beach erosion from strong winds and high waves will be widespread. (maps and links to storm webcams)
Damage from unfolding inland and coastal flooding from Ida will be much worse than the problems caused around the Gulf of Mexico. Damage from the remnants of Ida potentially could reach 100's of millions of dollars in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The storm also poses a significant threat to human lives. As bad as the inland flooding may be in the Southeast, storm surge flooding along the mid-Atlantic coast may prove to be the worst component and most memorable event of this storm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - A severe storm has been blamed for widespread power cuts in Brazil which lasted more than five hours. The strong winds, heavy rain and lightning brought down a power line in Brazil, cutting two other lines and ultimately automatically shutting Itaipu dam. In the WORST BLACKOUT IN YEARS to hit Brazil, up to a fifth of the population was left without power on Tuesday. Neighbouring Paraguay was also briefly left in the dark. Initial suspicion had focused on the Itaipu hydroelectric plant, which supplies 20% of Brazil's power, but officials there said the facility was working normally. The outage caused chaos on the streets of major Brazilian cities, including Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. At least 10 Brazilian states were partially or totally affected with problems spread over a wide geographical area. (map)

U.S. - The USA just slogged through its WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD, the federal government's National Climatic Data Center announced Tuesday. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Precipitation was most extreme in the central USA, where three states — Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana — saw their wettest October ever. Only three out of the 50 U.S. states had below-average amounts of rain and snow: Florida, Utah, and Arizona. In addition to the damp, October was also extremely cool, measuring the third-coldest since records began in 1895. The average national temperature of 50.8 degrees was 4 degrees below average. Only the Octobers of 1976 and 1925 were cooler. Oklahoma shivered through its COLDEST OCTOBER ON RECORD, while Nebraska and Kansas were the second-chilliest ever. The month was marked by an active weather pattern, which reinforced unseasonably cold air behind a series of cold fronts. Temperatures were below normal in eight of the nation's nine climate regions, and of the nine, five were much below normal. Only the Southeast climate region had near normal temperatures for October. The soggy October helped ease drought conditions across the USA. The National Drought Mitigation Center reported last week that the nation is in its best shape of the decade, in regards to drought. "This is the least amount of the country that's been in drought in the past 10 years." For the year-to-date, many states along the mid- and Lower Mississippi Valley are having their WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

New US swine flu death estimates will be just a guess - U.S. health officials are due to release new estimates of deaths from swine flu today, but the numbers will be just that -- a rough estimate. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count actual cases months ago, once it became clear that H1N1 was a pandemic that would infect millions. There are nowhere near enough diagnostic tests to give to everyone with flu-like symptoms to see if they really have swine flu, and autopsies have shown that some people who have died had H1N1 and no one even knew it. So the death figures will be based on models, calculated by looking intensively at small groups of people, gathering data on overall reports of sickness and death, and reconciling the two. This is also what happens every year with seasonal influenza, which WHO says kills 250,000 to 500,000 people a year globally and which CDC says kills 36,000 Americans in an average year.
Seasonal flu attacks about 20% of the population in an average year but it is the elderly who are the most likely to die. H1N1 is hitting a younger population -- adults in their 20s and 30s and children. The latest counts from CDC showed that 1,000 have died so far, including 129 children. The global count is more than 6,000. It is possible that these younger patients may be more likely to survive their bout of flu, even if they have chronic conditions. In Mexico, where the new flu appears to have spread first last March, young people were the most likely to be infected but elderly were most likely to die. Far fewer than 1 percent of patients that were infants and people aged 39 years and under died. Ten percent of patients over 70 who were treated in clinics died. 4.5 percent of patients aged 50 to 59 died, but just 2.7 percent of those in their 40s and 2 percent of patients in their 30s. Mexicans who had been vaccinated for seasonal influenza had a 35 percent lower risk of getting H1N1, even though the seasonal flu vaccine offers no protection against the new virus. Every day of delay in hospital admission after the fourth day of illness raised the risk of death by almost 20 percent.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"To...not prepare is the greatest of crimes;
to be prepared beforehand for any contingency is the greatest of virtues."
Sun Tzu

QUAKES -
11/10/09 -
5.9 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 CROZET ISLANDS REGION [southeast of Africa]
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
BALI - Mt Batur activity on alert. The status of Mt Batur in Kintamani, Bali, has been raised from active-normal to alert due to its increasing activity. "This happens because the volcano that last erupted in 2000 has shown an increasing activity, as seen by the black smoke coming out of the mountain several times." Under a normal condition tremor happens only five times a day but now it reaches 60 times a day and it is felt by people living within a radius of one to two kilometers from the mountain. "From 1804 to 2000 the mountain has erupted 28 times with a lapse of one to 39 years." The mountain's eruption is generally effusive and strombolian with lava and ash or rocks flowing 100 meter around the brim of the crater. Smoke from the mountain could rise up to 300 meter high above the crater. The tremor itself has been recorded increasing to 21 times of vulcanic tremor with a maximum amplitude of 1-12 MM since September. A total of 28 tremors have been recorded in October. On October 8 a total of five deep and 53 shallow vulcanic tremors were recorded. A total of 12 tremors meanwhile were recorded from November 1 to 7.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone PHYAN was 177 nmi S of Bombay, India.

Phyan - The cyclone developing over the Arabian Sea is likely to intensify in the next 48 hours bringing heavy rain to coastal Karnataka. Bangalore and other parts of interior Karnataka will also come within the cyclone’s reach.

Nameless Storm Is Disaster for El Salvador - A devastating storm that struck El Salvador over the weekend was not the hurricane that roared through the region at the same time, and, in fact, the storm did not even merit a name — which meant little after at least 140 people were killed when rivers burst their banks and hillsides collapsed under a siege of relentless rain. Hurricane Ida churned along the Atlantic coast of Central America late last week, first as a tropical storm, and Nicaragua and Honduras took glancing blows while El Salvador was untouched, hurricane experts said. But another weather pattern that forecasters described as a relatively small low-pressure cell struck El Salvador, which was in the midst of its rainy season, from the west. It hovered over the mountainous countryside from Saturday evening until late Sunday, bringing with it enormous quantities of rain and destruction far worse than the disaster-prone country had seen in more than a decade. The storm poured almost as much rain on central El Salvador as Hurricane Mitch did over four days in 1998.
“Ida had nothing to do with it." That was no consolation for a nation that found many of its villages and roads covered in a thick layer of mud. At least 1,500 houses have been destroyed and damaged. Even after the skies calmed, reaching some of the devastated regions proved to be a challenge, with rescue workers using helicopters and boats to get to the village of Verapaz, where 16 people were reported dead and another 47 missing after part of the Chichontepec volcano collapsed on top of homes.
At the National Hurricane Center, forecasters said they had noticed the storm yet issued no warning about it. “It was a very, very weak area of disturbed weather. We were monitoring it. You could see it in the satellite imagery. But we dropped it because it was so weak and it didn’t have the potential to become a tropical cyclone.” Salvadoran forecasters did put out a warning for Ida and the unnamed storm late last week, advising residents that mudslides and sudden surges along river channels were possible. Still, the intensity of the rains seemed to catch everybody by surprise.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Heaviest falls in months hit central Queensland. RECORD-BREAKING RAINFALL has hit the central Queensland coast over the past 24 hours giving some areas the heaviest downpours in seven months. Te Kowai residents, near Mackay, have experienced their wettest November day in five years after collecting 81mm in the 24 hours to 9am. Mackay had its HEAVIEST NOVEMBER RAINFALL IN 59 YEARS after fetching 72mm in the same period. "It is a relatively UNUSUAL weather pattern for this time of year, particularly so during an El Nino year like the present. We would normally see these setups during the autumn months."

Tornado Blasts Oregon Coast - The National Weather Service confirmed this weekend that a tornado tore through the coastal town of Lincoln City, damaging about a dozen homes. The Friday night tornado packed winds that reached 85 mph. The destruction path of the twister was 150 yards long and 80 yards wide. Tornadoes are RARE weather events in Oregon, particularly in Deschutes County. There have been only two official reports of a tornado in the past 50 years in the county, one blasting through in June 1983 and the other in August 1989. In Oregon’s history there have been six deaths caused by tornadoes, all of those coming in the late 1800s. In comparison, 113 people died and 900 were injured during one tornado April 9, 1947 in Woodward, Oklahoma. Harsh winter-style weather is expected throughout Oregon during the next several days, with massive amounts of snowfall dropping in the Cascades and wind and heavy rain blasting the coast.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - Chinese scientists artificially induced the second major snowstorm to wreak havoc in Beijing this season, reigniting debate over the practice of tinkering with Mother Nature. After the earliest snow to hit the capital in 22 years fell on November 1, the capital was again shrouded in white yesterday with more snow expected in the coming three days. Despite a massive effort to clear the capital of snow that involved over 15,000 workers, many roads remained blocked, while highways into Beijing and in neighbouring Hebei and Shanxi provinces were closed. Yesterday, an official had said the storm was "natural''. The Beijing Weather Modification Office had artificially induced both storms by seeding clouds with chemicals, a practice that can increase precipitation by up to 20 per cent.
City weather officials have previously said that such methods are aimed at alleviating a drought over much of north China, including Beijing, that has lingered for more than a decade. But residents have griped about the flight delays, traffic snarls, cancelled classes and other inconveniences of a surprise snow storm, saying officials could warn them if they are planning to toy with the clouds. Beyond the day-to-day hassles, experts said the weather manipulation had other undesirable side-effects in the longer term. "No one can tell how much weather manipulation will change the sky. We should not depend too much on artificial measures to get rain or snow, because there are too many uncertainties up in the sky." A Beijing engineer was quoted as saying the more than 5,500 tonnes of erosive snow-melting chloride used on city roads yesterday - nearly half the annual allotment - could "erode steel structures of buildings". In 2005, the snow-melting agent was responsible for killing 10,000 trees in Beijing and decimating 200,000 square metres of grassland.

SPACE WEATHER-
AUSTRALIA - Large holes were blown in the roofs of two Grovedale homes on Saturday afternoon, baffling emergency workers and weather experts. One couple reported hearing a loud bang, while a neighbour also heard the crashing sound about 3.30pm. SES and police said the damage was caused by an unusual weather phenomena called a microburst. But a weather expert dismissed that claim because that weather pattern was only associated with thunderstorms, and none were present on the weekend. The Astronomical Society of Victoria's president predicted a marble-sized piece of space junk or meteorite could have caused the damage and the evidence would be found in the area around the two houses.

ASTEROID NEAR MISS - On Nov. 6th at 2132 UT, asteroid 2009 VA barely missed Earth when it flew just 14,000 km above the planet's surface. If it had hit, the ~6-meter wide space rock would have disintegrated in the atmosphere as a spectacular fireball, causing no significant damage to the ground. 2009 VA was discovered just 15 hours before closest approach.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Flu worries reduce blood donations - Blood-donation centers across the United States are reporting unusually low levels of donations thanks to H1N1 flu. Some school and corporate blood drives have been canceled because of absenteeism, while in other areas regular donors are ill. In addition, donated blood must be discarded under federal rules if donors come down with flu symptoms shortly after donation.

Flu spread spurs China to boost vaccine efforts - China is stepping up its H1N1 vaccination drive after cases increased by about 5,000 and the death toll rose from 16 to 30 over the past 3 days. The health ministry numbered confirmed cases at 59,478 and said 240 people were in critical condition. Calling the increase in cases "alarming," the health ministry spokesman said the government has ordered increased vaccine production and immunizations. As of yesterday, 8.7 million Chinese had been vaccinated.

Pharmaceuticals manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline will donate 50 million doses of H1N1 vaccine to the World Health Organization (WHO) for distribution to countries that cannot afford to buy it. The agency said that 95 countries are eligible to receive the vaccine and it hopes to procure enough vaccine to cover 10% of their populations.

Fish with potentially harmful levels of mercury were found in 49% of US lakes and reservoirs studied.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
You cannot prevent the birds of sorrow from flying over your head,
but you can prevent them from building nests in your hair.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/9/09 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.2 FIJI
7.1 FIJI
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.4 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone 04A was 256 nmi SSW of Bombay, India.
Tropical depression IDA was 23 nmi WNW of Pensacola, Florida.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Heavy rain in southern India triggered flash floods and landslides that killed 41 people in the past 24 hours. More than 70 deaths have been recorded across several districts in the state of Tamil Nadu in the last week, where downpours have caused widespread damage to buildings and ruined crops. The hillside district of Nilgiris, about 450km west of the state capital Chennai, is estimated to have received up to 610mm [24 inches] of rain over two days. One village there was destroyed. Rescue efforts were underway to help those trapped in debris, and authorities said most deaths were due to walls collapsing, drowning or electrocution. Schools were closed in several districts and forecasters predicted more rain over the next 24 hours.

EL SALVADOR - Three days of national mourning have begun in El Salvador following the deaths of at least 130 people in floods and landslides. Thousands are living in shelters as a result of the disaster and large parts of the country are without electricity and clean water. The areas around the capital, San Salvador, and the central province of San Vicente were hit hardest. In Verapaz in San Vicente, soldiers and civilians have been searching debris left by a landslide for dozens of missing people. A torrent of mud and boulders from the Chichontepec volcano hit the town on Sunday, wrecking 300 homes and burying cars. The disastrous rains were mainly caused by a low pressure system in the Pacific, which was linked indirectly to Hurricane Ida. (map)

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Food prices remain stubbornly high in the developing world despite a strong cereal harvest this year, and 31 countries need emergency aid, the UN food agency warned overnight. "For the world's poorest people who spend up to 80 per cent of their household budgets on food, the food price crisis is not over yet." Although international food prices have fallen significantly since their peaks a couple of years ago, wheat and maize prices rose in October and rice export prices are still well above pre-crisis levels. Eastern Africa is among the regions facing critical food insecurity, with drought and conflict putting about 20 million people in need of food aid. Investment in agriculture in developing countries should be a "global priority".

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Monday, November 9, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
With time and patience the mulberry leaf becomes a silk gown.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/8/09 -
6.7 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.3 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

INDONESIA - Two people were killed and dozens injured after a strong quake with a magnitude of 6.7 rocked the Indonesian island of Sumbawa.

VOLCANOES -
JAPAN - The volcano island Sakurajima has had about 400 explosive eruptions so far this year, THE MOST IN 24 YEARS. A local observatory warned Friday that activity might pick up. The minor explosive eruptions reached the 400 threshold Thursday nigh. One expert said the recent activity is similar to what happened just before a major eruption in 1946. "It's in the middle of a stage where activity is picking up and the frequency of eruptions is likely to grow next year and thereafter. It's possible an eruption of similar scale to the (1946) event could happen within a few years." In general, lava from an eruption would not pose great danger to residents because it's sticky and its flow speed is "extremely slow." But if a pyroclastic flow follows a river or if big rocks hit residential areas, the damage could be serious.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
50,000 dead starfish found on Irish beach - Extreme weather conditions have killed tens of thousands of starfish and left them strewn across a sheltered beach. A carpet of pink and mauve echinoderms, a family of marine animals, appeared Thursday morning, November 5, on Lissadell Beach in north Co Sligo. The adult starfish, measuring between 7cm and 20cm in diameter and estimated to be up to 50,000 in number, stretched along 150 metres of the strand. A marine biologist speculated that they had been lifted up by a storm while feeding on mussel beds off shore. "The most likely explanation is that they were feeding on mussels but it is a little STRANGE that none of them were attached to mussels when they were washed in." If they had died as a result of a so-called 'red tide' or algal bloom, other sealife would have been washed ashore with them. "These were almost all adult size and the typical starfish variety that is found in the North Atlantic but there was nothing else mixed in with them." Surveying the UNUSUAL scene, he placed some in a bucket of seawater to test whether they were alive, but while this prompted a slight response from one or two of the creatures, the vast majority were dead. The phenomenon was most likely caused by recent bad weather. "They turned up almost certainly as a result of an exceptional storm event. A storm hit the seabed where these sub-tidal animals were and lifted them up and washed them ashore." Investigations were continuing into how they came to be washed ashore but initial indications pointed to the stormy weather, which has been a feature in the north-west in recent days. In a similar episode earlier this year, thousands of dead starfish washed ashore on Youghal Beach in Co Cork. Scientists speculated that they, too, had been thrown on to the beach by an underflow, which was probably caused by a storm at sea. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Category 2 Hurricane IDA was 49 nmi NE of Cancun, Mexico.
Tropical depression TWENTYFIVE was 866 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Hurricane Ida, the first Atlantic hurricane to target the United States this year, plodded early today toward the Gulf Coast with 105 mph winds, bringing the threat of flooding and storm surges. A hurricane warning extended more than 200 miles of coastline from Pascagoula, Mississippi, east to Indian Pass, Florida. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect across other areas of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, including New Orleans. Louisiana's governor declared a state of emergency. Authorities said Ida could make landfall as early as Tuesday morning, although it was forecast to weaken by then.
Ida is on track to make an UNSUALLY LATE landfall for a tropical cyclone upon the Gulf Coast. Up through the time of landfall and for a while thereafter, a range of serious impacts will accompany Ida, both at the coast and at sea. As a hurricane over the open Gulf well into the day today, Ida's high winds will kick up high waves of up to 20 feet. Tides will run higher than normal through Tuesday along most of the Gulf coast from Florida to Texas. Excessive rain will threaten flooding in a corridor from southern and eastern Louisiana eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
AUSTRALIA - Adelaide is bracing for its FIRST NOVEMBER HEATWAVE ON RECORD with high temperatures forecast for the next week. Five days or more with a top temperature above 35 degrees celsius is considered a heatwave. Adelaide's top temperature reached 37 degrees yesterday and was expected to stay above 35 until Friday. Adelaide's weather was being dominated by a large, almost stationary, high pressure system in the Tasman Sea.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Poland will not buy H1N1 vaccine that has not been properly tested or from manufacturers that won't take responsibility for side effects, the Prime Minister said. He said that vaccine producers were pressuring governments to buy but without taking responsibility for possible negative effects. He said expectations are to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on vaccine "while no one wants to guarantee that it has no side effects."

Persistent H1N1 flu transmission continues in North America with an unusually early flu season under way across Europe and central and western Asia. Countries in northern and eastern Europe, as well as eastern Russia, are seeing increasing activity. Mongolia, China, and Japan are reporting surges in cases. Seasonal H3N2 viruses are waning, though some have been detected recently in sub-Saharan Africa.

H1N1 in animals needs monitoring - Pandemic H1N1 virus infections in pigs, turkeys, and other animals underscores the need for close monitoring but have not changed pandemic dynamics, the WHO said. Limited evidence suggests the pig illnesses followed human transmission to pigs, and as human infections increase, the WHO said it expects to receive more reports of animal H1N1 infections. A novel H3N2 virus found recently in Danish minks did not spread to humans but signals a need for increased vigilance.

Sunday, November 8, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Those who have free seats at a play hiss first.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/7/09 -
5.6 WESTERN XIZANG
11/6/09 -
5.0 TONGA
5.3 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE

INDONESIA - A strong quake with a magnitude of 6.7 and a relatively shallow depth hit the Indonesian island of Sumbawa today, with initial reports saying some buildings were damaged.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane IDA was 49 nmi NE of Cancun, Mexico.
Tropical storm TWENTYFIVE was 892 nmi ENE of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Hurricane Ida has been upgraded to a category two storm, packing top wind speeds of nearly 160km/h.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
EL SALVADOR - At least 91 people have been killed in El Salvador by flooding following days of heavy rain. Authorities have declared a state of emergency in five regions. The capital San Salvador and central San Vicente province were the hardest-hit regions. San Vicente has almost been completely cut off by landslides and collapsed bridges. The other worst affected areas were La Libertad, La Paz and Cuscatlan. 60 people are still missing, and about 7,000 more are in shelters. Hurricane Ida, which passed to the east of El Salvador three days ago, is not thought to have caused the severe rains. El Salvador's rains were caused by a separate low pressure system.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
ECUADOR - Drought which has hit the Andes region is the WORST IN FOUR DECADES. Ecuador has introduced electricity rationing after the drought led to acute water shortages at the country's main hydro-electric power plant at Paute. There have already been blackouts in the capital, Quito, and the Pacific port city of Guayaqui. Power to residential areas will be cut by between 5% and 10%, but businesses will not be affected. Ecuador depends heavily on hydropower to produce electricity.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Pandemic H1N1 influenza is now worldwide, with more than 199 countries and territories reporting laboratory-confirmed cases. The official toll is now more than 6,000 deaths, but WHO authorities think that is an underestimate, since laboratory testing has been reduced and most countries have stopped counting individual cases. Influenza-like illnesses accounted for 8% of visits to physicians' offices in North America during the most recent week for which data were reported and 40% of respiratory samples tested were positive for influenza. Virtually 100% of those influenza samples were swine flu. Activity has been increasing in Europe and Central and Western Asia, signaling an unusually early start to the winter flu season. Early reports from China had indicated that the H3N2 strain of seasonal flu was circulating along with swine flu, but more recent reports indicate that swine flu now predominates. That does not mean, however, that the seasonal flu will not come back after this wave of pandemic influenza passes.
What appears to be an outbreak of swine flu is sweeping an isolated whaling village on a remote Alaska island. Most of the residents of the town are Ingalikmiut Inui.
Ukraine has been suffering an outbreak of swine flu, and officials now say that a January presidential election may have to be postponed until May if it is not brought under control. The WHO and European health authorities have sent in emergency teams to help with the situation, but the outbreak has become a political football, with recriminations being traded by the two main presidential candidates. Some authorities have estimated that as many as 750,000 Ukrainians have been infected with the virus, but only 30 cases have been laboratory-confirmed so far. At least 86 people have died of what appears to be swine flu.
Officials from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention are predicting that, in a worst case, as many as 40,000 Europeans could be killed by the swine-flu virus and a similar number by a succeeding wave of seasonal flu. The ECDC said 389 deaths had so far been linked to the virus in Europe, including 154 in Britain, 73 in Spain, 25 in Italy and 22 in France.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is issuing a health alert to warn consumers not to use Pig Ears and Beef Hooves pet treats manufactured by Pet Carousel because the products may be contaminated with Salmonella. The products were distributed nationwide in both bulk and retail packaging for sale in pet food and retail chain stores.

Friday, November 6, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/5/09 -
5.5 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 TAIWAN
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.7 TAIWAN
5.1 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.5 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN

TAIWAN - A magnitude-6 earthquake hit Nantou County at 5:32 p.m. Thursday, causing buildings to sway all over Taiwan. The quake was the biggest to hit Central Taiwan since the 7.3-magnitude quake on September 21, 2009 which killed more than 2,400 people nationwide, but no deaths were reported Thursday. The main quake’s epicenter was located at a relatively short distance of 19.3 kilometer under the surface 10.3 kilometer southeast from the township of Mingchien, where the tremor’s intensity reached seven. The same area was hit by several aftershocks during the rest of the day, the first registering 4.7 about six minutes later. The biggest, measuring 5.7, struck Mingchien at 7:34 p.m. The quakes caused light injuries by falling objects inside buildings and forced the high-speed rail line to suspend traffic in Central and Southern Taiwan. Cracks appeared in houses in Mingchien, with ceilings and walls damaged at a local government building. There were also reports of hundreds of households in the Nantou area losing electricity and phone service.

Midwest quakes are aftershocks from 1800s - Study suggests that people shouldn’t worry about huge temblors in region. The small earthquakes that sporadically rattle the central United States may actually be aftershocks from a few extremely large quakes that occurred in the region almost 200 years ago, according to the new study. The heart of the seismic activity was near the town of New Madrid, Missouri, close to the Kentucky and Tennessee borders. The town has shaken with numerous earthquakes since, from tiny ones that don't cause much of a stir, to moderate sized ones, such as a 5.2 quake in 2008. "There's no motion across the fault now, so nothing's going on, but yet there are still small earthquakes there." The present-day temblors are getting smaller with time, which is a characteristic of aftershocks. The findings suggest that people may not need to worry so much about the next big quake happening in the New Madrid region anytime soon. "That fault system seems to be shutting down, and if so, we may be looking at maybe thousands of years before we have [large] earthquakes on that particular fault again."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression IDA was 127 nmi S of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.

Hurricane Ida ripped into Nicaragua's Atlantic coast Thursday, destroying homes, damaging schools and downing bridges before losing steam and and later becoming a tropical depression. Ida, clocking 75-m.p.h. winds, struck land around sunrise in Tasbapauni, about 60 miles northeast of Bluefields. About 80% of homes were destroyed in nearby Karawala, a fishing village of about 100 shacks.

VIETNAM - The number of people killed by floods in central Vietnam has risen to 107 and the new estimate of damage caused by Mirinae was at least $US120 million.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -
Bald bears perplex experts - Bears in a zoo in eastern Germany have lost their fur, but international experts cannot work out why. Three spectacled bears in Leipzig Zoo are in various states of baldness, with the worst being hairless all over. The zoo curator said he had discovered that zoos throughout Europe and further afield had encountered the same problem, but no-one knew why. One expert suggested it could be caused by climate and the diet of the bears, whose native habitat is South America. The bears come from the Andean mountains of Ecuador, Peru and northern Bolivia. "I could hardly believe it is a bear although I have been dealing with bears all my life." The bears are suffering from itchiness as well, so animal keepers apply ointments to soothe their skin. "This problem with the spectacled bears is not just in Leipzig. There are other zoos in Europe and overseas having the same problem. And so we've had an international working group of zoo vets looking at this for some time already." Symptoms first appeared in the animals about two years ago. The mountain bears have a seasonal pattern influenced by climate, behaviour and food. "We in zoos are not very good at imitating natural seasonality." (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Wall St firms get swine flu vaccines first - News that US swine flu vaccines, meant to be prioritised for the nation's most vulnerable, are being distributed to Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs has sparked uproar. The New York Department of Health said Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have applied for supplies of the H1N1 vaccine and are eligible because they are large employers with in-house clinics. With H1N1 vaccines often scarce and populist anger already raging at Wall Street for last year's financial meltdown, the news triggered furor overnight. The secretary-treasurer for the largest US health care union, the SEIU, said it was "obscene" that powerful and wealthy private organisations got vaccines when "at-risk Americans are either waiting in line for hours or getting turned away." "It is shocking to think that private firms would be prioritised ahead of hospitals when the vaccine supply cannot meet the demand." "What they (critics) have to realise is that all providers who order H1N1 vaccine - whether it be a hospital or an employee health service - they have to agree that they'll only administer the vaccine to people in at-risk groups." So far, Citigroup has requested 2200 vaccines and received 1200, health department figures show. Goldman Sachs requested 5400 vaccines and has received 200. Morgan Stanley, which requested 1500, has not yet received any. Giant media corporation Time Warner requested 2000 and has so far received 100.

German drug regulators have approved Novartis's cell-culture pandemic H1N1 vaccine, becoming the first country to clear a cell-based version. The vaccine, made in Marburg, Germany, contains 3.75 micrograms of antigen and an MF95 adjuvant. It is approved for those 6 months old and older. Studies found a single dose provoked a good immune response with no unexpected safety or tolerability concerns. Novartis is building a second cell-culture plant in the United States.

Thursday, November 5, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
When you want to test the depths of a stream, don't use both feet.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/4/09 -
5.6 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
6.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Many recent earthquakes may have been the aftershocks of large quakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. Researchers describe a new pattern in the frequency of aftershocks that could explain some major quakes. They found that, away from plate boundaries, echoes of past earthquakes can continue for several hundred years. In the middle of a continent, the earth takes longer to recover. "It's something we had never spotted before...Most big earthquakes happen at [plate] boundaries - like the San Andreas fault. There is a lot of movement there and aftershocks go on for about ten years after a big quake." When the aftershocks have dissipated, scientists monitor regular movement of the earth to gauge the likelihood of a future quake. But small earthquakes also occur where there is none of this regular movement. "So if the ground has not been storing up energy for future earthquakes, these must be aftershocks." This could explain the disastrous earthquake in 2008 in China's Sichuan province. The event shocked many scientists as this was an area where there had been hardly any earthquakes in the past few centuries. But these "aftershock quakes" get smaller over time. "It even looks like we see small earthquakes today in the area along Canada's Saint Lawrence valley where a large earthquake occurred in 1663." They recommend that, instead of just focusing on the regions where small, regular earthquakes happen, scientists should use methods like GPS satellites and computer modelling to look for places where the earth is "storing up energy for a large future earthquake".

VOLCANOES -
KENYA - Surface deformation of 4 active volcanoes underscore possibility for human hazard, potential of geothermal resources. "The Kenyan Rift volcanoes are part of a larger Great Rift Valley complex that extends all the way from Mozambique to Djibouti; their presence in East Africa attests to the presence of magma reservoirs within the Earth's crust. Our study detected signs of activity in only four of the 11 volcanoes in the area -- Suswa, Menengai, Longonot and Paka -- all within the borders of Kenya." Small surface displacements, which are not visible to the naked eye, were captured using InSAR, a sophisticated satellite-based radar technique. From 1997 – 2000 they discovered that the volcanoes at Suswa and Menengai subsided 2 – 5 cm, and between 2004 and 2006 the Longonot volcano experienced uplift of ~9 cm. However, the most dramatic uplift unfolded at Paka, which had uplift of ~21 cm during a nine month period in 2006-2007. This pulse of activity was preceded by transient uplift and subsidence at a second source, associated with the magma flow through the complex underground plumbing system. Overall, the events were short in duration and episodic rather than continuous, which means discrete pulses of magma were arriving at the crust, similar to a stop valve that is being turned on and off intermittently. "The fact that these areas are so close to a major metropolitan area pose a challenge in terms of a large volcanic or seismic event." Suswa, Menengai and Longonot are all located in densely populated areas within 100 km of Nairoibi.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Hurricane IDA was 127 nmi S of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.

Hurricane Ida made landfall in eastern Nicaragua today and may enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm within five days after passing over Honduras. Ida was centered about 75 miles (125 kilometers) north of the port city of Bluefields, Nicaragua, as of about 9 a.m. local time. It was moving northwest at 6 miles per hour. The storm had maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph, making it Category 1, the least-intense hurricane on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale. Ida may return to tropical-storm strength, with winds below 74 mph, as it moves inland over Nicaragua before weakening into a depression. More than 2,200 people have been evacuated from islands off the Caribbean coast and from shanties near Bluefields amid heavy rain last night and this morning. Eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras are forecast to get as much as 25 inches (64 centimeters) of rain, which may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A storm surge may raise water levels in eastern Nicaragua as much as 3 feet above ground level, with battering waves. The storm is forecast to pass over Honduras as a depression and then re-intensify into a tropical storm as it moves back into the Caribbean this weekend. It should pass just east of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on the morning of Nov. 9 and then north into the Gulf of Mexico, home to about a quarter of U.S. oil production, according to a five-day track prediction.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
ARCTIC - Temperatures were as much as 10 degrees above average during portions of October. Intense low pressure worked to generate strong southerly winds over the Arctic Ocean and Siberia, keeping ice from forming. A study suggests that less summer sea ice cover can lead to a feedback loop: warmer water (less ice) provides more energy for storms; the winds from these storms delay ice formation during the fall, and so the cycle deepens. This pattern retards ice growth but at the same time increases precipitation (snowfall) which accumulates over land areas. This makes for greater cold air reservoirs later in the winter. One might conclude this would lead to more cold air outbreaks in the U.S. and Canada, but the data is far too sketchy and recent to draw that conclusion. For now, the arctic sea ice pack hovers just above the 2006/2007 record lows for various parts of November (2006 was the record low sea ice year for the last two weeks of the month; 2007 for the first two weeks). Ice growth is expected to accelerate now that all of the Arctic Ocean is in continuous darkness for the next two months. Whether the UNUSUAL weather pattern will continue to interfere is unknown.

AFRICA - Temperatures at Kilimanjaro never get above freezing. The ice there has shrunk (although data only goes up to 2007), but the reason is in dispute. When Kilimanjaro first became the poster child of the Global Warming movement a few years ago, we were told that the ice would be gone at 2015. The latest report has pushed it back to 2020... perhaps because the ice is not melting nearly as fast as was expected. The measured ice has leveled off quite a bit in the past decade. 90% of the ice has been lost since first measurements, but what else other than global warming could explain the ice melt? The glacier atop Kilimanjaro is believed to have formed around 11,000 years ago during a wet period in eastern Africa. When the first European climbers reached the summit in 1889, the local climate was already dry,and the ice was already retreating. This is due to sublimation. That is when snow an ice skip melting and goes directly to water vapor gas. Since there has not been enough snow to replenish the supply, then net result is ice loss. Again, not from melting, since the temperature is still below freezing near the peak. The ice topography shows little evidence that melting is anything but a minor force. Based on ice core samples, conditions are returning to where they were 11,000 years ago. Jagged spires and cliffs made of ice up to 120 feet tall are not softened around the edges. "The real explanations are much more complex. Global warming plays a part, but a variety of factors are really involved." Forest reduction in the areas surrounding Kilimanjaro, and not global warming, might be the strongest human influence on glacial recession. "Clearing for agriculture and forest fires - often caused by honey collectors trying to smoke bees out of their hives - have greatly reduced the surrounding forests." The loss of foliage causes less moisture to be pumped into the atmosphere, leading to reduced cloud cover and precipitation and increased solar radiation and glacial evaporation.
"So why did the AP just release a story about the disappearing ice caps? Perhaps it was conveniently timed with Al Gore's appearance on Good Morning America. Perhaps it times out with Senator Barbara Boxer's attempt to fast track the newly named Tax and Cap Bill called, "Clean Energy and American Power Act". Regardless, we are all about to be inundated with global warming and climate calamity stories leading up to the Climate Conference in Copenhagen on December 7th."
Researchers have found that since 1971, temperatures at the base of Mt. Kilimanjaro have been rising faster than global warming alone would account for. Deforestation may have led to changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns that have at least contributed to, if not driven, changes at the summit.

SPACE WEATHER-
NOAA forecasters say there is a chance that a coronal mass ejection (CME) will hit Earth's magnetic field today, and the impact could spark a high-latitude geomagnetic storm. The billon-ton cloud was blown into space by departing sunspot 1029 on Oct. 31st. Normally, CMEs take only two or three days to reach Earth, but during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009, the CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED TO A VERITABLE CRAWL. Crossing the sun-Earth divide now requires about five days, so an Oct. 31st CME should arrive on Nov. 5th. Because the blast was not squarely Earth-directed, the sluggish CME will deliver at most a glancing blow.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

CDC says vaccine shortage likely to outlast current H1N1 wave.

The Ukrainian health ministry said today that 86 people have died of respiratory illnesses, five of them from the pandemic virus. A global team is in the country to help assess the outbreak, which has hit western regions hardest.

Pain relievers may blunt vaccine response - Taking pain relievers such as ibuprofen or aspirin to reduce the pain of flu injections appears to blunt immune response. Researchers found the association across a range of vaccine and pain relievers. They say that cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors block optimal production of B lymphocytes, which make antibodies. Czech researchers recently found that acetaminophen weakened infants' response to vaccines.

Iowa cat tests positive for pandemic flu - A 13-year-old Iowa house cat was recently diagnosed as having novel H1N1 after two of its three owners were sick. The cat and its owners have recovered. It is the first pandemic virus isolation in a cat, and it doesn't appear the cat spread the virus.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The man who waits for roast duck to fly into his mouth must wait a very, very long time.
Chinese proverb

QUAKES -
11/3/09 -
5.5 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.7 IONIAN SEA

IRAN - A 4.9 earthquake struck the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas early today, injuring at least 209 people.

A new ocean - A new study reports that a 20-foot wide crack in the center of the Ethiopian desert will eventually become a new ocean. The study shows how Dabbahu, a volcano at the northern end of the rift, erupted and pushed magma up through the middle of the rift area, "unzipping" the rift in both directions. The volcanic eruption tore open a 35-mile crack in just days. Scientists are excited about the findings because it reveals what is likely happening along the deep ocean floors, a place almost impossible to study. "We know that seafloor ridges are created by a similar intrusion of magma into a rift, but we never knew that a huge length of the ridge could break open at once like this." Scientists believe the Red Sea will eventually pour into the newly created sea.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

Tropical Depression 97W hasn't grown into a tropical storm and is now tracking through the central Philippines, far south of Manila. The storm is weakening and is dissipating, and NASA's Aqua satellite verified that the thunderstorm cloud tops are not as cold as they were Monday, indicating a weakening storm. Tropical Depression 97W, named "Tino" in the Philippines, is forecast to move on a south-southwesterly track, over Tabaco City, Ligao, Oas, and Naga City into the Ragay Gulf. It will continue moving south-southwest through the Sibuyan Sea and into the Mindoro Strait.

Wide-scale floods in central Vietnam have killed more people than officials originally estimated. Tropical storm Mirinae killed at least 40 people in a number of provinces, with at least 10 others missing. Disaster officials said information was still trickling in from isolated areas and the toll could rise. Most of the recorded deaths were due to the floods, with Phu Yen province worst hit. An estimated 338 millimetres (13 inches) of rain fell in Vietnam's central provinces. Around 2,600 houses and 4,400 acres (1,800 hectares) of farmland have been destroyed. State television showed pictures of people stuck on roofs of houses, and rescuers attempting to take children and the elderly to safety.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Uptake of seasonal flu vaccine may set record - This year's uptake of seasonal flu vaccine is "UNPRECEDENTED" and may set a record. The CDC expects that 114 million doses will be distributed by the end of the year, but the demand may be greater still. There are signs of a higher vaccination rate than usual among healthcare workers, who usually have only about a 40% immunization rate.

No H1N1 test is currently approved or cleared by the FDA. The US Food and Drug Administration published guidance Monday to help manufacturers develop diagnostic tests for the novel H1N1 influenza virus. Manufacturers of tests can submit a request to the FDA for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). If granted, the EUA will allow the test to be used during the H1N1 pandemic.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Make happy those who are near, and those who are far will come.

QUAKES -
11/2/09 -
5.4 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 TONGA
6.1 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.0 COLOMBIA

CHINA - A moderate earthquake hit southwest China Monday, injuring 28 people, toppling more than 1,000 houses, and killing hundreds of livestock. The 4.9-magnitude quake hit Yunnan province early Monday morning not far from popular tourist destination Dali, striking at a depth of 35 kilometres (22 miles). Nearly 300,000 people were affected by the tremor, but no deaths were immediately reported. More than 400 livestock, including sheep, chicken and pigs, have been killed.

IRAN - Teheran's days as the Iranian capital may be numbered after a powerful government body approved a plan for a new principal city in an attempt to protect residents from a dangerous earthquake. Seismologists have warned that Teheran is liable to be struck by a catastrophic earthquake in the foreseeable future. It is not clear whether a new capital will be built from scratch or sited in an existing city. The city is home to 12 million people. Plans for a new capital were first drawn up 20 years ago, but officials only gave them serious consideration after the 2003 earthquake that devastated the south-eastern city of Bam and killed an estimated 40,000 people. Experts warn that Teheran sits on at least 100 faultlines and that many of its buildings would not survive a major quake.

VOLCANOES -
A volcano overlooking Taiwan's capital Taipei is still active, and not dormant as long thought, potentially threatening an area that is home to three million people. Datun Mountain, around an hour's drive from Taipei's city centre, could devastate the entire urban area if it were to erupt now. The assessment is based on findings from the academy suggesting the volcano last erupted 5,000 years ago rather than 200,000 years ago, as previously thought.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm MIRINAE was 156 nmi NE of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.
Tropical depression TWENTYFOUR was 161 nmi E of Manila, Philippines.

When NASA's Aqua satellite flew over the Philippine Sea during the early morning hours Monday, November 2, infrared imagery saw another new tropical cyclone coming together. The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the organization that forecasts tropical cyclones in that area of the world is getting a workout. Tropical Storm Mirinae just made landfall Monday morning in Vietnam, and had crossed northern Luzon, the Philippines this past weekend. Now, there's another threat in the region. At 0600 UTC (4 p.m. local Asia/Manila time) on Monday, November 2, "System 97W" appeared to be taking on tropical cyclone characteristics. In fact, the Philippine Government hasn't waited for it to be named and gave it the local name "Tino." Tino, or 97W was located about 320 miles northeast of Manila. It was moving in a westerly direction toward the Philippines and the outer fringes of 97W's clouds were already moving into the northern areas of Luzon.
Typhoon Mirinae weakened to a tropical depression after crossing Vietnam’s southern coast, where authorities had ordered evacuations. The storm left at least two people dead and eight injured as of 7 p.m. local time in the southern coastal province of Phu Yen, where the storm made landfall Monday. The depression will move westward and reach the Cambodian border by 4 a.m. today with winds of below 39 kilometers (24 miles) per hour before dissipating by Nov. 4.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - Meteorologists in China covered Beijing in snow at the weekend after seeding clouds to bring winter weather to the capital. It is part of an effort to fight a drought affecting northern China. The UNUSUALLY EARLY snow blanketed the capital from Sunday morning and kept falling for half the day. Chinese meteorologists have for years sought to make rain by injecting special chemicals into clouds. The technique often gets results, but the drought in the north of the country has continued for more than a decade.
HONG KONG - Temperatures are set to plunge today as strong winds blow in from the mainland - as boffins in Beijing claim credit for an early cold snap that caused chaos for many Hong Kong travelers. Four Hong Kong-Beijing flights were canceled and 21 delayed Sunday as the capital felt the full blast of a strong cold front that has pushed temperatures to below zero. The blizzard - the EARLIEST TO HIT THE CAPITAL IN 40 YEARS - was caused by "artificial means," according to state media which quoted the Beijing Weather Modification Office. "We won't miss any opportunity for artificial precipitation since Beijing is suffering from a lingering drought." According to preliminary calculations, more than 16 million tonnes of snow had been artificially created. "We have used a total of 186 doses of silver iodide since 8pm on Saturday." The Hong Kong Observatory is forecasting temperatures will drop as low as 17 degrees Celsius today as the cold front moves in on Guangdong. The cold spell gave Beijing its FIRST SNOW A MONTH EARLIER THAN USUAL. The cold weather is expected to persist until Thursday. The early winter blast caused chaos in many other parts of the mainland. In Shandong, passenger shipping services from Yantai to Dalian were suspended. Snowstorms also lashed Jilin province, collapsing trees and disrupting flights. In Yanji, more than 5,455 hectares of cropland were damaged.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-
The snows capping Mt Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, are shrinking rapidly and could vanish altogether in 20 years, most likely due to global warming. Mount Kilimanjaro's top has lost 26% of its ice since 2000.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR-
Giant jellyfish have sunk a 10-tonne trawler in Japan. - The Nomura's jellyfish can weigh up to 200kg each and have recently begun to swarm in the waters off the coast of China. Unfortunately for the three-man crew, their net dragged through such a swarm, capturing dozens of the jellyfish, which can grow up to two metres in diameter. The three men were thrown into the sea when the vessel capsized and sank under the weight of the jellyfish. The swarm has come as a SURPRISE to local fisherman, who reported none in 2008. Nomura's jellyfish swarm in order to breed. The last spikes in Nomura's jellyfish populations occurred in 1958 and 1995.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The World Health Organization confirmed yesterday that it was sending a team of experts to help the government of Ukraine, where it said more than 2,300 people have been hospitalized for what is suspected to be pandemic H1N1 influenza and 38 have died. Monday a Ukrainian health official put the death toll from flu and acute respiratory illnesses at 67. The Deputy Health Minister said the country has had 255,000 cases of flu and respiratory illness, with 15,000 people hospitalized. The reports follow the government's decision on Oct 30 to close schools and ban public meetings for 3 weeks because of the steep rise in suspected H1N1 cases. The health ministry said only 22 cases have been confirmed as H1N1, with one death. But it said the country's National Security Council put the death toll at 4. The WHO said the Ukraine Ministry of Health confirmed the H1N1 virus in 11 of 30 patients from two of the most affected regions, using tests in two Ukrainian laboratories. The WHO planned to run confirmatory tests at one of its collaborating centers. The WHO reported that 38 deaths associated with "severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness" had occurred as of Oct 31. Preliminary analysis indicates that "severe cases and deaths primarily occur among previously healthy young adults and aged 20 to 50 years." Sunday Ukraine made an urgent appeal to world powers for help in battling the pandemic, after announcing that 60 people had died of respiratory disease and flu. Poland, Ukraine's neighbor, urged the European Union to act swiftly to help the country, saying it was in EU members' best interest to send medical aid. Meanwhile, Slovakia closed two pedestrian border crossings with Ukraine and ordered spot medical checks at others. The WHO noted once again that travel restrictions are not recommended because they will not prevent the spread of the disease. Alarm over H1N1 has become a political issue in Ukraine as it prepares for a presidential election in January, with rival candidates seeking to show leadership in battling the disease. The Prime Minister Monday said Ukraine is suffering an epidemic of normal flu with a few cases of H1N1. She charged that "the unscrupulous statements of certain politicians" were causing panic.

Canadian advisors push seasonal vaccine - Canada's vaccine advisory group has recommended against delaying seasonal flu shots, a move that many provinces made after an unpublished study suggested the vaccine might raise the risk of contracting pandemic flu. The panel concluded that even if the finding is valid, the risk of skipping the seasonal shot outweighs the risk seen in the studies. The group also endorsed giving both seasonal and H1N1 shots at the same time.

Contaminated beef - Two people, one from New Hampshire and another from upstate New York, have died after eating ground beef that may be responsible for an E. coli outbreak linked to illness in more than two dozen people.

Monday, November 2, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Be careful not to lift a stone only to drop it on your own feet.

QUAKES -
11/1/09 -
5.5 TONGA
5.0 SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA
Cluster of 200 moderate quakes in Iceland - the 12 strongest ranged from 3.4 to 4.3.

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - GALERAS & HUILA - Officials in southern Colombia have issued a code orange alert for the newly-active Galeras volcano which they said could erupt in a matter of days or weeks. Authorities said they are continuing to monitor the nearby Huila volcano, also on orange alert, where sizeable volcanic activity also has been detected in recent weeks. Huila last erupted in November 2008, killing 10 people. The Galeras volcano situated near the southern border with Ecuador is Colombia's most active volcano, with five eruptions over the past two years. It began rumbling back to life on October 27. Some 7,000 people live in the vicinity of the volcano. A 1993 eruption of Galeras killed nine people, including six scientists who had descended its crater to take gas samples.
On October 16, authorities ordered high 'orange' alert across the region surrounding the Huila volcano, meaning that a full scale eruption could occur within days. Between October 21 and 27 the Institute recorded some 1,004 seismic events, which included 119 related to fracturing rock and 847 related to lava flow within the volcano body. The ash ejected by the volcano has affected 17 settlements in the Cauca, Valle and Huila departments. Nevado del Huila has erupted several times over the past few months and though the eruptions have damaged roads and bridges there have been no recorded casualties.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm MIRINAE was 219 nmi SE of Da Nang, Vietnam.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said there is a need to look into the “ABNORMAL BEHAVIORS” of the recent storms that hit the country in the last two previous months. The state weather bureau has to conduct research to find out exactly what caused Tropical Storm Ondoy to dump “the HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN HISTORY” last September 26. They will also focus on the CURIOUS case of Typhoon Pepeng whose threat lingered the longest for more than two weeks because of “the UNUSUALLY ERRATIC TRACK” it followed in early October. The top weather official noted that they will also look into the ABNORMAL BEHAVIOR of Typhoon Ramil which was “UNEXPECTEDLY overpowered” by weaker weather systems, prompting its failure to make landfall in Cagayan thrice in its 12-day stay in the country in mid-October. PAGASA would find the results of the study useful, which could help minimize the guessing game with the coming of more "UNUSUALLY STRONG AND ABNORMALLY ERRATIC” tropical cyclones produced by the adverse effects of climate change. “It would be indicative of what is going to come, which will DEFINITELY be getting WORSE. And we need these studies for us to take better preparation."

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

New York's governor Thursday declared a state emergency to permit more health workers to give H1N1 flu vaccinations. Normally only physicians, nurses, and nurse practitioners can do so; the declaration will enable physician assistants, dentists, some dental hygienists, and emergency personnel to participate. The action -- requested by local governments -- also authorizes school-based health centers to vaccinate adults and children.

Dutch scientists suggest that vaccinating children against seasonal flu may make them more vulnerable to pandemic flu strains. Shielding children from the need to generate immunity to actual seasonal viruses might leave them more vulnerable to pandemic strains. But other experts, while not necessarily agreeing, say it's better to protect children from an annual threat than one they may face every few decades.

Swiss regulators on Friday restricted the use of an adjuvanted pandemic H1N1 vaccine made by GlaxoSmithKline in pregnant women, children, and people older than 60. The agency held back its authorization for the groups because it has little data on the vaccine's use in children and no data for pregnant women. It endorsed one of two pandemic vaccines made by Novartis and is still examining the company's cell-based pandemic vaccine.

Though pandemic activity continues to intensify in North America, several European countries are reporting high rates of flu-like illness and pandemic virus detections, including Iceland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Many other countries in Europe and western and central Asia are reporting early flu transmission. Flu activity is up sharply in Japan. At least 5,712 deaths have been reported, up 713 from last week.

Sunday, November 1, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Judge not the horse by his saddle

QUAKES -
10/31/09 -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.9 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
10/30/09 -
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
6.9 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.2 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm MIRINAE was 340 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Typhoon Mirinae has smashed through the Philippines, killing 11 people and worsening floods in areas that were struggling to recover from recent deadly storms.
Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) pummeled Southern Luzon Saturday, and state weather forecasters are now keeping tabs on a potential cyclone that has entered Philippine territory. The shallow low-pressure area (SLPA) was 850 km east of Luzon as of 4 a.m. Sunday. "We are still monitoring it, but it is too early to say if it will become a cyclone. But for now, it is not likely to have any direct effect on any part of the country because it is still too far away." If the SLPA intensifies into a cyclone while in Philippine territory, it will be code named “Tino," the 20th cyclone in Philippine territory this year. Meanwhile, Pagasa advised fishing boats and small seacraft against venturing to the sea due to strong winds associated with Santi. Santi began unleashing its wrath Friday evening causing power outages, floods, and landslides in some areas in Luzon.

North Atlantic Hurricane Season slowest since 1997 - the consequence of the transition from La Nina to El Nino during the past year. Global and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity remains near 30-YEAR HISTORICAL LOWS -- three years in a row now of considerably below-average activity globally. The global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) sunk to RECORD LOW LEVELS during the early summer prior to the typhoon activity in the Western Pacific and the hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific. While it may seem like the world has experienced considerable tropical cyclone activity lately, 2009 as a whole is still well behind normal or climatology. This is a natural consequence of the rather UNUSUAL FLIP from strong La Nina to El Nino conditions during the past calendar year, which did not happen at all during the period of 1976-2006. It is expected by NOAA and others that the current El Nino is locked in for the rest of winter 2009-2010 and may indeed strengthen. This would suggest enhanced typhoon activity in the Western Pacific throughout the rest of the fall and winter which will necessarily increase the NH ACE. The Southern Hemisphere TC season may begin at any time now, but most activity is experienced between January and March.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Global jump in swine flu deaths - The number of swine flu deaths reported worldwide jumped by 700 in a week. More than 5,700 swine flu deaths were reported by 25 October, compared to nearly 5,000 the week before. The biggest rise was in the Americas where 4,175 deaths have been reported, up 636 from the week before. There have been 440,000 confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus worldwide. But, as many countries have stopped counting individual cases, the actual number is likely to be significantly higher. "In the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere, influenza transmission continues to intensify, marking an UNUSUALLY EARLY start to winter influenza season in some countries." Statistics showed fatal cases in Europe climbed to at least 281, while those in Asia-Pacific rose to 1,070.

U.S. - Flu activity is now widespread in 48 states, up from 46 last week. Even though the winter flu season has yet to begin, the flu is taking a heavy toll on children, killing 114 U.S. children and teenagers since April. Nineteen of those deaths were reported last week. Two-thirds of those children had underlying medical conditions. In a normal flu season, 40 to 50 children die. Since the CDC began tracking children's flu deaths five years ago, the highest toll was 88, in the winter of 2007-8. Comparable numbers are not available for adults.