November & December 2008 Disaster Details

Wednesday, December 31, 2008 -

There will be no updates on January 1 and 2.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!

When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading.
Henny Youngman

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/30/08 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 TAIWAN REGION

WYOMING - The swarm of small earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park is THE MOST INTENSE MEASURED THERE IN YEARS, leaving scientists puzzled. The region is known for such swarms - 1,000 to 2,000 quakes occur annually in the park. Yellowstone's 10,000 geysers and hot springs, including the Old Faithful Geyser, may be the result of this geologic activity. But the latest shaking is notable for the number of tiny temblors and their intensity, according to a statement Monday from the University of Utah, where scientists monitor seismic activity in Yellowstone. Researchers have long predicted that the Yellowstone supervolcano will eventually erupt again, with devastating consequences for much of the United States. Half the country could be covered in ash up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep, one study predicts. But those same researchers say nothing suggests such an eruption is imminent. Last year researchers reported on unusual slow movement below the surface that is tied to a newfound gradual sinking of the nearby Teton Range. And in 2006, scientists discovered that in the previous decade, the volcano had risen nearly 5 inches. "Could it develop into a bigger fault or something related to hydrothermal activity? We don't know."

VOLCANOES -
Do Yellowstone Earthquakes Foretell Yellowstone Volcano Eruption? - Recent Yellowstone Earthquakes Are Centered Under the Ancient Yellowstone Supervolcano's Caldera. It is not unusual for there to be small earthquakes in the Yellowstone Park area, however the recent spate of Yellowstone earthquakes are DIFFERENT. These Yellowstone earthquakes are not powerful, but there are a lot of them occurring in a very short period of time. Yellowstone National Park is the home of the Old Faithful Geyser which derives its heat from a shallow, five to ten mile deep pool of magma that lies below Yellowstone. The Yellowstone caldera is, in fact, the remnants of a very large volcanic event that occurred hundreds of thousands of years ago. The area is still very geologically active and, according to the University of Utah's earthquake center, is the site of 1000-2000 small earthquakes every year, but they say, this week's activity is much higher than average. With all the shaking going on in Yellowstone Park, we can't help but think of the possible effects if the supervolcano under the park were to erupt again. The volcano is said to erupt every 600,000 years. The last time the Yellowstone supervolcano erupted was approximately 640,000 years ago. It was about 8000 times more destructive than the Mount St. Helens eruption. It has the potential to be even more powerful than that. If these Yellowstone earthquakes are a precursor to another eruption, the damage would almost certainly be more catastrophic than we can imagine. Aside from the destruction force of the explosion, the tremendous amounts of ash that would be released into the atmosphere would certainly have a dramatic, if temporary, effect on the Earth's climate. While it would not stop global warming in the longer term, we might expect the ash to block enough sunlight globally to cause a year or two of the coldest weather on record.
At present, it is not clear if these recent Yellowstone earthquakes are the result of existing, but undiscovered fault lines in the area, or if they are related to increased geothermal activity of the Yellowstone volcano. While the possibility of a major eruption at Yellowstone remains extremely unlikely, even without a major eruption, places like Old Faithful could be disrupted by a minor shift in the geothermal conditions at Yellowstone.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - A rogue wave brought one ship's pursuit of the prestigious Vendée Globe sailing race to a crashing end south of Australia on Sunday. The skipper was forced to withdraw from the field when the wave flipped his vessel, The Spirit of Canada, upside down, breaking the mast . "The sea is the sea and you can't predict when … big waves will hit you." He's now trying to get The Spirit of Canada safely to port in the country for repairs. There has been a storm raging in the area for more than five days. "The storm seemed to be subsiding when a huge wave knocked the boat on its side, putting the mast in the water, not an easy thing to do on these 60-by-20 boats. "

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Fresh warnings of high seas in Morobe. The Morobe Provincial Disaster Office has issued fresh warnings of high tides along coastal villages in the province. The tides are expected in the new year and people are warned to move to higher grounds. Meanwhile the Provincial Disaster Office has shipped the first batch of supplies to people affected by the recent high seas. The areas to be affected are from all the coastal areas in the districts of Tewai Siassi, Finschhafen, Lae and Huon Gulf. Communities along these areas would expect to see high seas from king tides in the month of January from the 7th to the 14th next year. The tides would rise as high as 1.5m to 2.5m and would also be experienced in other maritime provinces in the country. More than 240 homes on the coastline of Wasu and Siassi Local Level Governments have been washed away by the high seas early this month. Wasu, which is on the mainland suffered major damages mainly in the Sio area. On Siassi Island, more than 30 houses were destroyed at Tolokiwa Island and Tul village. There are complaints that not enough supplies and food are reaching some people.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH AFRICA - Villagers are counting the cost of the violent storm that flattened houses, killed livestock and destroyed belongings as it tore through King William’s Town and surrounding areas on Sunday. In villages like Xhukwana in Debenek, about 70 houses were destroyed by the storm. Villagers lost livestock, electrical appliances, and furniture, and some have started to rebuild their damaged homes. The storm also affected electricity supplies, leaving the whole area of King William’s Town and the surrounding townships without power for two days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
MICHIGAN - Saginaw is teetering on a winter weather record -- most snow ever in December -- despite a freak warm spell.

IOWA - This month has SET A RECORD FOR THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IN DECEMBER in Decorah. After 2.5 inches fell Friday and another 1.5 inches Saturday, the total for the month, as of Monday morning, was 32.2 inches. And there was more snow in the forecast for Tuesday. The previous record was 32 inches in December 2000. Could this winter possibly be worse than last year? During the winter of 2007/08, 53 inches of snow fell with 17 inches falling in December, 12 inches in January, 20 inches in February, three inches in March and one inch in April.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008 -

My Grandmother is over eighty and still doesn't need glasses. Drinks right out of the bottle.
Henny Youngman

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
12/29/08 -
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.8 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

WYOMING - Swarm of small quakes hits Yellowstone area. The quakes of magnitude 3.5 and lower have been occurring beneath Yellowstone Lake, five to nine miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, a park landmark. The earthquakes that began on Friday and continued on Saturday intensified during the weekend, and there were reports that people in the Yellowstone Lake area felt the quakes. The quakes have been in an area of the park where quake swarms are common.
Scientists are closely monitoring more than 250 small earthquakes that have occurred in Yellowstone National Park since Friday. A professor of geophysics at the University of Utah says it's VERY UNUSUAL to have so many over several days. The largest tremor was Saturday and measured magnitude 3.8.

BULGARIA - An earthquake measuring a magnitude of 5 on the Richter Scale was felt in much of southern Bulgaria at 0:59 on Monday. The epicenter of the moderately strong earthquake was about 300 km southeast of Bulgaria's capital Sofia, in the sea on the Greece-Turkey border. More than 40 lighter aftershocks have been registered after that. The increased seismic activity in the recent months has led a number of experts to argue that Bulgaria might be threatened by a strong earthquake in the near future. The strongest earthquake ever in continental Europe measuring 7.9 on the Richter Magnitude Scale occurred in 1904 in southwest Bulgaria. Northeast, north-central, and parts of southern Bulgaria as well as the capital Sofia are located in high-risk seismic zones.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Eruption of Koryak Volcano Might be Dangerous, Russian Scientist Warns. Authorities of Kamchatka Territory and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky City must get ready for a big swell of eruption of the Koryak Volcano located at the 30 km distance from the city and its airport, which is the major air gateway of Kamchatka. “As compared to the eruption of 1956, the only one in the history of modern observations, the current eruption started in a more impetuous and powerful way." Accordingly, this is indicative of the possibility of a considerable intensification of the volcano activity. “Ash emissions and trails already now are quite dangerous for aviation, the hazard growing with the intensification of the eruption." The Koryak Volcano has been in the state of explosive eruption (i.e. eruption with ash emissions) of average force since Christmas Day on Thursday. In modern history only one eruption, starting in 1956 was observed. Back then a crack broke in the north-west slope of the volcano, with gases and ashes ejected. The eruption was weak and lasted till March 1957.

INDONESIA - Mount Semeru of Lumajang regency in East Java is still considered on alert status despite increasing activity including spewed ashes, eruptions and tremors in the past 15 days. On Monday alone, the mountain erupted and produced hot smoke five times. There have been 189 explosions and one tremor so far. Falling ash continues to disrupt residents living across 15 districts out of the 21 in the regency. Chair of the regency's health and social services agency said on Monday that his office was preparing masks for residents to protect themselves from inhaling the ash. Heavy rain and cloud have accompanied the eruptions since Monday morning.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - Fourteen houses were ravaged by huge waves in Barangay Zone 6, Pulupandan in Negros Occidental Friday evening. Homes made of bamboo and nipa were totally damaged after big waves hit amid a heavy downpour. Four were totally destroyed. This is not the first time that this happened in the area. Several typhoons have hit the area and put lives in danger but they have no plans of relocating to a safer a place. "This is so far the worst. But we cannot leave the place because our livelihood comes from the sea." Authorities are still trying to determine the cost of damage. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

BALI - The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has warned all tourists visiting Bali to stay alert because cyclone Billy may be bearing waves up to 3-and-a-half meters high to the southern coastline. The office was expecting Billy to continue affecting beaches across the island chain during the next two days, despite its weakening intensity. "All visitors must be on the alert for tidal waves which may occur suddenly, particularly along Bali's southern beaches." The storm had originated in Australia's Carpentaria Bay. Bali Police have warned all travel agencies and resorts to pay careful attention to their guests following the disappearance of five high schoolers in the high waves and severe undertow off Laloan Beach in Tabanan, Bali, on Sunday. Police are still searching for the five.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Avalanche Experts Say Current Rash Of Slides Is 'Atypical' - Storms surged through the West dropping more than five feet of snow as Christmas arrived and left. Resorts resounded with bomb explosions as ski patrols scurried to reduce the threat of avalanches in the mounting snowfall. Despite efforts, fatalities from inbounds avalanches at western ski resorts climbed this week - outpacing in December season-long statistics from previous winters. "The odds of an avalanche in a ski area are minute." But the deaths brought U.S. avalanche fatalities to nine already this winter - a third occurring INSIDE resort boundaries. "This is definitely an ATYPICAL YEAR." There were seven fatalities due to avalanches inside resort boundaries since 2004-05, including the three this month. "Prior to that season, we had almost nil inbounds." There were only two since the early 1970s. In all recent fatality cases, the ski patrol had already thrown their bombs to reduce the hazard, and other skiers had dropped into the zones. "These incidents clearly show that snow is a very complex medium." "The misperception is that everything inbounds is safe." The rise of inbounds avalanche fatalities worries the experts. "The ski areas, Forest Service, and the National Ski Areas Association will be working closely to sort all of this out and learn from the incidents."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

'Huge year for natural disasters' - Losses from natural disasters rose by 50% in 2008, underlining need for action on climate change, re-insurers Munich Re say. The past year has been ONE OF THE MOST DEVASTATING EVER IN TERMS OF NATURAL DISASTERS. Although there were fewer "loss-producing events" in 2008 than in the previous year, the impact of natural disasters was higher than in 2007 in both human and economic terms. The company suggested climate change was boosting the destructive power of disasters like hurricanes and flooding. It has called for stricter curbs on emissions to prevent further uncontrollable weather scenarios. More than 220,000 people died in events like cyclones, earthquakes and flooding, the most since 2004, the year of the Asian tsunami. Meanwhile, overall global losses totalled about $200bn, with uninsured losses totalling $45bn, about 50% more than in 2007. This makes 2008 the third most expensive year on record, after 1995, when the Kobe earthquake struck Japan, and 2005, the year of Hurricane Katrina in the US. The pattern continues a long-term trend already observed. "Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes." Asia was the continent worst hit by natural disasters in 2008. Cyclone Nargis in Burma killed an estimated 130,000 people and devastated much of the low-lying Irrawaddy Delta region, while the earthquake which struck China's Sichuan province in May left an estimated 70,000 dead and millions homeless. Although Nargis and the Sichuan quake brought the biggest cost in terms of human lives, the economic losses were mostly uninsured. The most expensive single event in 2008 was Hurricane Ike, which brought $30bn in losses. In addition, roughly 1,700 tornadoes across the US caused several billion dollars of damage, as did periods of low pressure weather activity in Europe. "When temperatures increase there is more evaporation and the atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb water vapour, with the result that its energy content is higher. The weather machine runs into top gear, bringing more intense severe weather events with corresponding effects in terms of losses."

Prepare for longer emergencies due to climate change - The rise of freak weather storms as a result of global warming means that people should add extra water and supplies to their emergency stockpile. Traditionally, homeowners have been warned to keep 72 hours worth of food and water in case they are disconnected from the power grid because of a severe storm or flood. Even if most people were able to sustain themselves for 72 hours that would have given emergency responders the ability to deal with the most urgent cases. But times are changing as the climate changes. Now people should be prepared now to be without power for as long as a week. "We should be thinking about how to be more self-sufficient because we do have a changing climate and we're going to have to adapt." Families should be stocked with food, water, batteries, radio, first-aid supplies and any special items such as medication and baby formula.

Monday, December 29, 2008 -

To the world you may be one person,
but to one person you might be the world.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/28/08 -
5.0 AEGEAN SEA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - Fears of explosive volcano eruption closes Kamchatka Airport - Predictions that the Koryak Volcano located about 13nm north-north-east of Petropavlosvk-Kamchatsky Airport on the Kamchatka peninsula might burst into an explosive eruption, have closed the Petropavlosvk-Kamchatsky Airport. The Volcano has increased its eruptions in the recent days. Now collapses at the north-western slope of the volcano at a height of about 3100 meters triggered fears the volcano might burst into an explosive eruption. The volcano's last significant eruption was estimated about 3500 year ago, the last minor eruption was in 1957.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - Four houses in Mataram destroyed by high waves - High waves destroyed at least four fishermen's homes at Bintaro Jaya, Ampenan, Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara, on Saturday night. The seawater also destroyed several fishing boats, flooded a number of villages in the area and submerged about three hectares of rice paddies along the beach. "In the beginning, we felt a tremor, maybe it was from the waves, and suddenly our village was flooded with seawater." According to local residents, floods from high waves have hit the area twice this year. The first incident occurred on Feb. 20, when 7-meter-high waves hit coastal villages in Bintaro Jaya and nearby areas.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BOLIVIA - Flood Waters Destroy Santa Cruz Bolivia - The Pirai River in Santa Cruz began to swell due to the weather. It destroyed several roads, homes, and automobiles. Police say one person has been reported missing from the floods.The year has seen several heat waves and droughts prior to the rainy season beginning in December. Officials say that may be the cause for the wicked weather.Last year sixty-one people died from floods in Bolivia which caused over four-hundred-million dollars in damage.

NEW YORK - 'Hurricane force' winds topple trees, power poles - The winds that roared through Western New York Sunday morning included gusts that reached 75 mph, toppling trees and power poles and causing widespread damage. "It's VERY UNUSUAL, to say the least."

HEALTH THREATS -
Commonly-used food additives may fuel the growth of lung cancers, a Korean study on animals has suggested. Processed foods including meat, cheese, and drink contain inorganic phosphates. Researchers fed mice with lung cancer a diet with similar percentages of phosphates to those in human food, and found tumour growth accelerated. Phosphates are an essential nutrient for living organisms, and adding phosphates to food can improve its texture and ability to retain water. But the study suggested that high levels of inorganic phosphates may be interfering with the body's cell signalling systems. Phosphate levels in modern diets had risen even in recent years, perhaps reaching 1000mg a day in some cases.

Sunday, December 28, 2008 -

All things done in darkness come to light.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/27/08 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
12/26/08 -
None 5.0 or over.
12/25/08 -
6.0 OFF COAST OF PAKISTAN
5.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.1 SIKKIM, INDIA
5.5 FIJI REGION
12/24/08 -
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 GUAM REGION
5.0 TIMOR SEA
6.3 TONGA REGION

CANADA - Sea creatures off the coast of Vancouver Island were knocked out of bed Christmas morning by a magnitude 5.9 earthquake. Natural Resources Canada reported the quake at 12:11 a.m. about 160 kilometres southwest of Port Alice on the Nootka fault zone. The Nootka fault zone is a strike slip fault, meaning there are two tectonic plates moving laterally, in opposite directions, against one another. Such faults produce no ocean-floor displacement, meaning there was no possibility of a tsunami. The quake was too far offshore to be felt on land. Quakes of such a magnitude happen at that location every one to two years and are rarely felt.

CHINA - Nine people were injured on Friday when a magnitude 4.9 earthquake hit southern China, causing 30,000 inhabitants to be evacuated. There were two tremors early Friday morning in an area of Hunan province near the border with Myanmar. The city of Ruili and surrounding villages were the hardest hit, with 100,000 people affected. More than 30,000 residents have been evacuated from homes that suffered damage in the earthquake.
The two quakes, with magnitudes of 4.3 and 4.9, struck in the early hours of Friday in different parts of Yunnan. Meanwhile, a quake of magnitude 4.0 hit in neighbouring Guizhou province on Friday, with no casualties reported.

ITALY - An earthquake of 5.1 magnitude struck northern Italy on the 23rd near the city of Parma, but no damage or injuries were reported.The earthquake was UNUSUALLY STRONG for northern Italy and was felt from the financial capital Milan to Florence to Trieste. Startled Italians jammed telephone lines after the tremor, and train services were briefly interrupted on some lines.

SCOTLAND - Three small earthquakes were recorded within the space of about two hours in a Highlands glen popular with walkers and climbers. The quakes in Glen Shiel were reported on 19 December. Recorded at magnitudes increasing from 1.1, to 1.7 then 1.8, the first was picked up at about 2000 GMT. It was UNUSUAL to have three in a short time, but they would not have been felt by people. The survey records about 200 earthquakes a year in the UK. In October, an early morning earthquake shook homes and set off dogs on fits of "mad barking and growling" in the Highlands. A seismic event of a magnitude of 3.4 was detected.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - The Kilauea volcano on the big island of Hawaii took a three-day break this week from its 26-year eruption. Scientists said that lava stopped flowing at what is known as the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout on Monday and started up again on Christmas Eve. Interruptions have become more common, although they are usually shorter than three days, and scientists have not determined what causes them. Kilauea continued to emit sulfur gas through two vents and some tephra through one of the vents. The pauses in lava flow are sometimes -- but not always -- associated with inflation-deflation events when the summit of the volcano reduces in size and then reinflates. "We've looked but we don't understand the relationship." Kilauea, one of five shield volcanos on the island of Hawaii, began its current eruption in January 1983. The location of the lava flow shifted a year ago to the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout. The eruption has added almost 600 acres to the largest of the Hawaiian islands while burying 191 structures and a nine-mile section of highway.

INDONESIA - Oil wells erupt mud in Gresik - Three oil wells in Sekarkurung, Gresik, East Java, spewed a three-meter geyser of toxic gas and mud Friday morning. The eruption occurred when well operators were about to replace the drill bit at one well with a new one. The regulator said attempts have already been made to curb the eruption and that they expected to solve the problem soon after nightfall. Should the eruption persist, it could result in the same kind of disaster that is still affecting Sidoarjo, East Java, where a lake of hot mud has formed from the continuously erupting toxic mud since May 29, 2006. "Should they fail to solve the problem, the legislative council will force the companies to halt all drilling operations in the area."

MONTESERRAT - Disaster preparedness officials in Montserrat raised the hazard level of the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the 22nd following steadily increasing activity over the previous 10 days. Although not mandating any evacuation at this time, the Director of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory recommended that the hazard level be increased from three to four, due to the threat to areas north and west of the dome, and urged increased preparedness for those living in Zone B of the island. Level three signifies mild activity that threatens the west of the island; significant change of measured activity and high measured activity, while level four relates to lava extrusion that threatens the north or west and a large unstable dome to the north or west. "Since Saturday December 20, rock falls and pyroclastic flows started to go down Tyres Ghaut, a few reaching the very lower part of the ghaut, in less than three minutes. There is a lack of warning signs before such rock-falls/pyroclastic flows. Lava extrusion is now occurring at/or very near - the top of the old dome, on the north-northwestern side, increasing the potential for material entering Tyres Ghaut." The activity is extremely unlikely to decrease over the coming few weeks. "Even if the level of activity remains the same, the hazard level is likely to increase due to potential accumulation of new lava high-up in the dome."
Montserrat volcano hurls lava, rocks, ash - On Wednesday the volcano spewed ash 10,000 feet (3,048 meters) into the air. No ash fall was reported over inhabited areas. Rockfalls have increased by 80 percent compared to last week. The volcano had remained quiet for six months until it exploded earlier this month.

CHILE - The government said on Friday the area surrounding the Chaiten Volcano, which erupted in May for the first time in thousands of years, was still not safe and that a decision regarding the future of the town of Chaiten would be made in coming days. The Volcano, only six miles (10 km) from the town, started spewing ash, gas and molten rock on May 2, forcing the evacuation of about 7,000 residents. A cloud of debris that soared as high as 20 miles (32 km) into the air was kept aloft by the pressure of constant eruptions for weeks, and even covered towns in neighboring Argentina with volcanic ash. "We received the latest report from the Universidad Catolica ... and the only thing I can tell you is that the volcano is exactly as dangerous as it was before." The government has not dismissed the possibility of relocating the small town and making the whole area a no-go zone for years to come, but many locals have said they want to return to their homes in Chaiten.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - Video was taken of strange waves moving up the Goukou river in Stilbaai on December 24. "Every seven minutes a small wave of water flows up the river against the outgoing tide and against the wind. The last time we saw this was when the quake and tsunami hit on the 26th of December a few years ago. This video was taken 5km up the river, from the Goukou river mouth, so that gives you an idea of the force behind the waves." (video)

MARSHALL ISLANDS - The low-lying Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency as hundreds of people were displaced by powerful waves triggered by storm surges and high tides. Flood waters swamped the main urban centers of Majuro and Ebeye that are less than a meter above sea level. Concern is rising about hygiene after the floods hit cemeteries, “contributing to the already alarming sanitary conditions with the widespread debris caused by the high wave action.”

BRITAIN - earlier this month, a daredevil surfer cheated death after becoming trapped – between a stone pier and a FREAK 30ft wave. Terrified, he almost drowned when the monster wave emerged from nowhere and charged towards him at speeds of more than 40mph. He struggled desperately to paddle to safety, but was caught in powerful currents that prevented his escape. Clinging helplessly to his board, the student was tossed into the air "like a rag doll" when the wave – with an estimated mass of seven tons – broke over him. He was flung into the surf and spent "ages" underwater before finally managing to overcome the currents and paddle back to shore. Miraculously, he survived the terrifying incident at Newlyn, near Penzance in West Cornwall, unscathed. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 572 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Northern Australia may face a super cyclone swarm with winds up to 290km/h. Experts have warned that is a possibility as the climate shifts into a 30-year cycle of intense weather. Under the cyclone swarm scenario, up to three category 5 cyclones could form and hit the coast at the same time, each packing destructive winds of 290km/h. Scientists and cyclone experts, tracing super-cyclone activity off the Northern Australian coast over several centuries, say such a catastrophic event is not unprecedented. The Australian region tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30. The destructive force of just one category 5 storm is akin to the "energy of a nuclear explosion". The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed 2008 was a record year for extreme weather events. The WMO predicted Australia would have abnormal weather over the coming summer. The 30-year cycle hinges on the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. "It is the oscillation in sea surface temperatures lasting for about 20 to 30 years. Records going back over several centuries show a very clear 20 to 30-year oscillation, which produces big cyclones, huge floods and massive storms. It is getting towards the time when the IPO goes into the negative or cool state, meaning we will see an increasing number of land-falling cyclones." (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ILLINOIS - Summerlike storms pounded the Midwest on Saturday with hail, high winds and even funnel clouds, helping to thaw the ice after days of a deep freeze and threatening floods. Residents braced for an aftermath forecast expected to include overflowing rivers and flooded basements. Flooding was also being fueled by unseasonably high temperatures that climbed into the 60s in Illinois. A powerful storm system swept across a wide swath of south and central Illinois during the afternoon, packing wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The storms also produced hail, and the Weather Service office in St. Louis received reports of funnel clouds. The storms damaged buildings and brought down tree limbs and power lines. Meteorologists said the melting snow, heavy rains and frozen ground could combine to flood areas where high water is RARE. "The potential exists for serious and potentially life threatening flooding to develop with some areas that typically do not flood, possibly even becoming inundated with water." 2008 has been THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD for the city of Chicago, with just under 50 inches of precipitation.

MICHIGAN - With RECORD TEMPERATURES reaching into the 60s Saturday, fear of flooding loomed large in metro Detroit.

HAWAII - Hilo Airport reported RECORD HIGH RAINFALL for Dec. 26, with 5.25 inches recorded by 5 pm - and rain still falling. The old record was 3.74 inches.

UK wildlife is struggling to cope as erratic and unseasonal weather has taken its toll for a second consecutive year. Birds, mammals and particularly insects have all suffered from a cold, late spring, a wet summer with little sunshine and a long, dry autumn. Species under threat include puffins, marsh fritillary butterflies and lesser horseshoe bats. Another wet summer in 2009 could be a disaster for insects.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
OREGON - The National Weather Service says the winter wallop that dealt the Portland area nearly 19 inches of snow in the last two weeks has by one measurement made December THE SNOWIEST MONTH SINCE JANUARY 1950.

WASHINGTON - Spokane SETS RECORD SNOW MARK, tops 45 inches. Christmas Eve snowfall carved a place in the weather record books as December 2008 became THE SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON RECORD with nearly a week to go.

WISCONSIN - Madison SET A NEW RECORD FOR SNOWIEST DECEMBER at noon on Wednesday.

MINNESOTA - The western tip of Lake Superior has frozen over in December for THE FIRST TIME IN RECENT MEMORY. Seeing any ice this early has been RARE in recent years. In the rare years recently when Lake Superior has partially frozen, it’s usually in February or early March, after months of cold weather. There’s also thickening ice in the channel between Bayfield and Madeline Island, and the Madeline Island Ferry Line is about to close for the season — the first time it’s closed in December since 1985. Not only is December ice RARE on Superior, but thick ice has become the exception during any winter month. In several recent winters, the ferry line never did shut down, forced to operate all winter because ice never formed or was too thin for people to drive across. December’s average temperature at the Duluth office of the National Weather Service has been an UNUSUALLY COLD 9.3 degrees below normal, with a dozen nights below zero and one as cold as -22 below. Increased ice can help keep water from evaporating, leading to more water in the lake next spring. It’s believed the lack of ice cover in recent years has been a big factor in declining lake levels.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Disasters warning for Asia-Pacific - the Asia-Pacific region faces an era of "mega-disasters" affecting hundreds of thousands of people as urbanisation, climate change and food shortages amplify the impact of natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and cyclones in coming years, scientific research has shown. So-called mega-cities in the Himalayan belt, China, Indonesia and the Philippines are prime candidates for earthquakes that could cause more than a million deaths. Hundreds of thousands could be seriously affected by volcanoes erupting on average once a decade in Indonesia and once every few decades in the Philippines. Tsunamis, floods and cyclones affecting tens of millions of people are likely in low-lying "mega-deltas" like Bangladesh which are experiencing population explosions and are vulnerable to climate change. And many Pacific island nations have a high potential for catastrophes that could affect large proportions of their populations and overwhelm local government response and recovery efforts. The severity of humanitarian crises in the region is increasing due to the interaction of climate change, urbanisation, poor land use planning and tension about access to resources. There are likely to be several disasters killing more than 10,000 people each decade and there is the potential for catastrophes affecting more than 1 million people. "Whilst the incidence of natural hazards themselves - earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and the like - hasn't really changed, the sheer number of people living in the Asia-Pacific region means any earthquake has the potential to affect hundreds of thousands, if not millions...As populations grow, people are beginning to settle on areas they wouldn't have historically - steep slopes that might be vulnerable to landslides or coastal areas near large river mouths which are likely to flood every couple of years."

American Shores Face Threat of Rising Sea Level - Report Projects 4-Foot Rise in Global Sea Level by End of Century. What sounds like the climatic end of days could be coming a lot sooner than previously anticipated. A recent report released by the U.S. Geological Survey paints abrupt climactic shifts, including a more rapid climate change with global sea level increases of up to four feet by the year 2100 and arid climatic shifts in the North American Southwest by mid-century. Previous estimates anticipated a global sea level rise of 1.5 feet by the end of the century. Arctic ice melt will have devastating effects beyond the polar region and well into the American heartland. A 3-foot rise in sea level by 2100 will deluge more than 22,000 miles along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, in regions of Louisiana, Texas, Florida and North Carolina. In Florida, the coastal towns along the Gulf of Mexico face the reality of rising sea levels, one that could come sooner than anticipated.

WEST VIRGINIA - Beckley SET A RECORD for Dec. 27 at 3:08 pm Saturday when the temperature hit 64. Charleston BROKE A RECORD at 2:17 pm Saturday when the temperature hit 73, breaking the previous record of 71 degrees set in 1959. That's almost 30 degrees above the average high temperature of 44 degrees.

KANSAS - Wichita BROKE A RECORD in the temperature books Friday when the high of 69 easily broke the record of 64 set in 1976.

CANADA - After enduring two major snowstorms and temperatures in the -18C range a week ago, the mercury swung almost 30 degrees in the other direction to 10C Saturday to BEAT THE ALL-TIME RECORD of 9.4C set back in 1949 in Toronto. It's UNPRECEDENTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, and it will come with a price: rain. A system from the U.S. has brought with it both warm air and moisture, leading to one of the soggiest December weekends in recent memory. A special advisory remains in place for northern Lake Huron through the Bruce Peninsula and Muskoka to the Algonquin area. Those locales could receive up to 70 mm and remain under a RARE December rainfall warning, with flooding a real possibility.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
A sustainable global food system in the 21st Century needs to be built on a series of "new fundamentals", according to a leading food expert. The current system, designed in the 1940s, is showing "structural failures", such as "astronomic" environmental costs. The new approach needs to address key fundamentals like biodiversity, energy, water and urbanisation. "The level of growth in food production per capita is dropping off, even dropping, and we have got huge problems ahead with an explosion in human population." "We have an entirely oil-based food economy, and yet oil is running out." In order to feed a projected nine billion people by 2050, policymakers and scientists face a fundamental challenge: how can food systems work with the planet and biodiversity, rather than raiding and pillaging it? Global food production will need to double just to meet demand. "We have the knowledge and the technology to do this, as things stand, but the perfect storm of climate change, environmental degradation and water and oil scarcity, threatens our ability to succeed." "We are going to have to get biodiversity into gardens and fields, and then eat it. "

HEALTH THREATS -
VIETNAM - Bird flu has resurfaced in poultry in northern Vietnam after months without any cases, killing ducks and chickens at two farms.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008 -

There will be no updates on December 25 and 26.
Have a very Merry Christmas!



QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/23/08 -
5.4 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NORTHERN ITALY
5.4 NORTHERN ITALY [ aftershocks are continuing]
6.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 TAIWAN

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Scientists said an earthquake felt by some New Hampshire towns during the weekend was likely an aftershock from a tremor 281 years ago.

OREGON - Earthquake swarm shakes Maupin. During the last two years more than 350 small earthquakes have been recorded just outside the small eastern Oregon town of Maupin, and scientists are unsure what is triggering the activity.The earthquakes began in December of 2006 and though only a dozen or so of the temblors exceeded magnitude 3.0, the largest of the events could be felt locally. The earthquakes all originated within a very small area just a few miles southeast of Maupin and about 30 miles southeast of Mt. Hood. Seismic activity in eastern Oregon is comparatively rare and when it does happen, it seems like it happens in these swarms. More common earthquake activity is to get a main shock and then a number of aftershocks. But these swarms lack a main event and instead are characterized by an ongoing series of small quakes. These small earthquakes strike Maupin about every other day on average and one looks a lot like another. Occasionally, two or three quakes would occur on the same day, but never more than four. And rarely would more than a few days go by without an earthquake. That's RATHER UNUSUAL. A geologic map shows a small fault line near the region where most of the quakes have occurred, though it runs in a direction that doesn’t necessarily mirror the pattern of recorded earthquakes. “You think at some point that the earthquakes are done, but they keep cranking along. It isn’t likely that a major quake will follow, but you can never exclude that possibility. That uncertainty is why we need to do more research.”
A similar swarm of earthquakes, though some of them larger, has been taking place in Reno, which also is along the Eastern California Shear Zone. Those quakes are much shallower; about two miles below the surface compared to the 10 mile-deep Maupin events. (quake map)

CALIFORNIA - Series of winter quakes recorded near The Geysers - The quakes began after 1 am Sunday morning, culminating in a 3.0-magnitude quake that occurred at 4:36 pm Sunday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 129 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Port Hedland braces for cyclone Billy - Cyclone Billy has intensified to a category three storm packing 165km/h winds, but shows signs of moving further away from the West Australian coast. Port Hedland and surrounding communities in WA's north have been warned to batten down as the cyclone moves west off the state's northern coastline. The WA Bureau of Meteorology said Cyclone Billy's centre was now well to the west of Broome and moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. It was expected to continue moving west on Wednesday before taking a more north-westerly track in the coming days, which would take if further away from coastal areas. Gales with gusts of up to 100km/h could still develop, but only if Billy takes a more south-westerly track than expected. Broome escaped any major damage when the cyclone passed within 60km of the resort town on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Harvest weather BIZARRE - Farmers have been left wondering what has happened to the typical dry and dusty summer in the Wheatbelt, as unseasonal thunderstorms continue to wreak havoc on their annual hay baling and grain harvest. Farms in the South-West were flooded and left without power after storms over the weekend and grain growers in the Great Southern face ONE OF THEIR LATEST FINISHES TO HARVEST. Wet weather was causing significant delays for grain growers, particularly in the southern regions. Farmers in the Albany zone, from the south coast north-east to Hyden, had delivered just 40 per cent of their expected total grain tonnage. The harvest is expected run into February in some southern areas, compared with a usual finish around mid-January. The Albany zone was expected to deliver a record 2.8 million tonne harvest this year, boosted by better yields and bigger plantings. But frequent unseasonal rainfall, and in some cases hail, was expected to reduce the overall tonnage and affect grain quality. One property west of Kojonup had 215mm since early November, about 40 per cent of the ANNUAL average. The bizarre weather made for a frustrating finish to the season. Hail damaged canola paddocks, frost wiped out part of the barley crop and heavy late rains reduced wheat quality in some cases. “If that rain had been spread out through the year, it would have made for a good season.” (photos)

SPACE WEATHER-
Sun's Cycles Can Forecast Floods, Drought? - The sun's fluctuations can help predict extreme climatic events on Earth decades ahead of time, new research suggests. Solar cycles are 11-year phases during which the sun's activity ebbs and flows, accompanied by an increase in sunspots on the sun's surface. The cycles, which are driven by the sun's magnetic turbulence, may influence weather systems on Earth, particularly the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a periodic climatic system associated with floods and droughts mostly in the Southern Hemisphere. "The sun is the engine of our climate. It's like a vibrating string; its past vibrations can be used to predict future vibrations." Those vibrations are the cyclical "twisting and untwisting" of magnetic fields that cause the sun's poles to flip at the start of each new cycle. Longer magnetic cycles of about 90 years and 400 years are also found in astronomy records. The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system, seems to correspond with a 90-year sun cycle. For instance, the current index reading closely follows a trend observed in the 1920s. Periods of greater solar disturbances are associated with rainy periods, whereas a calmer sun dovetailed with times of drought in Australia. How solar cycles may influence Earth's weather systems is not well understood, but cosmic radiation may be a factor. Research shows that periods of high cosmic radiation coincide with particularly long La Ninas. If the current index continues to mimic the 1920s cycle, then 2009 is set to be another cool year relative to the 1990s. However, the next few years may be a little harder to predict. That's because the sun has already defied its typical 11-year cycle: The new round was supposed to begin in 2007, but only recently got underway. Longer-term trends may also be influencing the timing of the new cycle. The larger 400-year magnetic cycle, for instance, is expected to end in 2020. Other scientists are not convinced of the influence.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/22/08 -
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 79 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Tropical Cyclone Billy is responsible for heavy unseasonal rain and thunderstorms at the weekend that have delayed the state's grain harvest even further. Heavy rain was recorded in the south west and south coast on Saturday, and the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting further falls today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TENNESSEE - An earthen dam holding back a 40-acre retention pond at a coal-burning power plant west of Knoxville collapsed early Monday, releasing a frigid mixture of water, ash and mud over hundreds of acres and damaging about a dozen homes. One house was pushed off its foundations and driven more than 30 feet onto a road. A man was trapped inside and he had to kick out a window to get out of the house. Emergency workers rescued people from two partially collapsed houses. A road and railroad track leading to the plant were also buried under several feet of dark gray mud. Investigators are trying to determine what caused the dam to give way, but the Tennessee Valley Authority, which runs the plants, said heavy rains and freezing temperatures may be to blame.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA is blanketed in snow from coast to coast as severe winter storms disrupt transport and leave thousands without power. Strong winds and snowfall have hampered relief efforts, with meteorologists forecasting more bad weather to come. Storm warnings have been issued for coastal areas of Nova Scotia and Vancouver, Quebec and Ontario were also braced for more wintry weather. "It's a widespread and severe winter storm and it's not over yet, with these high winds expected to continue for some time." Weathermen say Canada may see its FIRST COUNTRYWIDE WHITE CHRISTMAS SINCE 1971. Sub-zero temperatures also gripped parts of British Columbia as meteorologists warned of blizzards up and down Canada's west coast. In the north-western territory of Yukon the temperature reportedly dropped as low as -45C (-49F). Several areas in the US have also been settling in fo an extended cold snap, with storm warnings in place across a number of states after a weekend of hurricane-force winds and heavy snowfall. At least five people died as ice storms cut power in some parts of the US while multiple car accidents were reported in Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois.

SPACE WEATHER-
Evidence that a massive meteorite shower had an impact on Earth on a global scale 470 million years ago have been found on a Highlands beach in Scotland. Researchers uncovered tiny remnants of meteorites, smaller than a grain of sand, within rocks in Sutherland. The scientists think the meteorites - a result of a collision in space - triggered earthquakes and tsunamis at the edge of many continents. The find is linked to others made in China, the US and Australia. The find near Durness confirmed previous scientific speculation that the meteorite shower - which followed a "catastrophic event" in an asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter - was so vast in size that it affected locations across the globe. These findings will help scientists to investigate further if there was any connection between the meteorites falling and changes to underwater species which took place around the same period of time.

HEALTH THREATS -
The number of flu cases in England and Wales is heading for a nine-year high. GP surveillance data has shown a 75% rise in cases in a week and a 73% increase on last year's figures. It also appears that the number of cases has started to rise among elderly patients and not just in healthy younger groups as previously reported. The latest figures show 69 GP consultations for flu-like illness per 100,000 of the population. Public health officials said 200 cases per 100,000 would signal an epidemic. In Northern Ireland there has also been a sharp rise in reports of flu and levels are now higher than in recent years but in Scotland cases seem relatively low. Experts believe the UNUSUALLY COLD cold weather may have contributed to the surge in flu cases. In the past ten years, the only substantial outbreak was in 1999/2000. "We have had a VERY UNUSUAL run of winters with almost no flu, so we should not be surprised that here is a winter with more flu."

Monday, December 22, 2008 -

There will be no updates on December 25 and 26.
Happy Holidays!

Education has for its object the formation of character.
Herbert Spencer

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/21/08 -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 FIJI
6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 121 nmi NE of Broome, Australia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Fierce winter storms and UNUSUALLY COLD temperatures blanketed much of the northern half of the country on the first day of winter Sunday, slamming regions still struggling to restore power after ice storms more than a week ago. Frigid temperatures seen only “once every year or two” plummeted to as low as 40 degrees below zero in northern Maine overnight, with residents in Portland waking up to a storm dumping as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow an hour. Thundersnow - a spectacular event in which thunder and lightning accompany heavy snowfall - was predicted to occur over parts of Maine’s Atlantic coast, bringing with it between 12 and 18 inches of snow by late Sunday night.
Things weren’t much better across the country, on the West Coast. Seattle, known for its rainy winters, got socked with 4 to 7 inches of snow. Even MORE UNUSUAL, TEMPERATURES REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR THREE DAYS straight and were only predicted to rise into the 20s on Sunday. The result was an icy, slippery film shellacking the region’s roads, making travel treacherous. Another storm system was fast approaching from the Pacific Ocean and was expected to bring additional snow to the region late Sunday evening, while the initial storm that hit Washington left deep snow in the mountains and moved into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
Gusty winds Sunday afternoon were expected to lead to blizzard conditions in portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota and northern Illinois. Homeless people filled shelters in Chicago, where the Sunday morning low was 6 below zero, with a wind chill down to about 29 below.

SPACE WEATHER-
The upper reaches of Earth's atmosphere are much lower than expected, a US Air Force satellite has found. Currently, the ionosphere - a layer of charged particles that envelopes the planet - is at an altitude of about 420km, some 200km lower than expected. The behaviour of the ionosphere is important because disturbances in its structure can upset satellite communications and radar. During the night it has been detected at about 420km, rising to 800km during the day. Scientists said more typical values would be 640km during night-time and about 960km during the day. To some extent, this should not be too surprising. The ionosphere reacts to the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity and our star is currently in a very quiet phase. "We are in the depths of a very low solar minimum right now and as a result THE IONOSPHERE IS LOWER AND LESS DENSE THAN, WE BELIEVE, AT ANY OTHER TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPACE AGE when measurements have been made." "Sometimes the ionosphere interrupts satellite communications and sometimes it doesn't, and we're trying to understand how to forecast, or predict ahead of time, when those problems are going to arise." Despite this quiescence, the satellite has still managed to witness a fair amount of activity in the ionosphere. It can see structures, or bubbles, in the layer. It is these features that will distort, weaken, or even block radiowaves trying to pass through to the ground. The mission will be to try to understand how these structures start and evolve so that some warning can be given of their impact on satellite transmissions.

Sunday, December 21, 2008 -

The shaft of the arrow may be feathered with one of the eagle's own plumes.
We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction.
Aesop

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/20/08 -
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
12/19/08 -
5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.6 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.9 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

CHILE - The series of tremors that have been felt recently throughout the center of the country reportedly are aftershocks from the earthquake on the 18th, which reached a magnitude of 5.9 degrees with an epicenter located to the west of Papudo - and not a seismic swarm. The shaking can be expected to last for at least a month and, due to the nature of the tremors, they will be of a lower intensity than that of the main seismic event. "The shaking has been limited to a very specific area to the west of Papudo. This is the main seismic event with aftershocks." As of Friday, the area off central Chile has been struck by five undersea quakes greater than magnitude 5 since the activity began, according to the USGS. The temblors have been too weak to generate a tsunami. The largest earthquake ever recorded in Chile, a magnitude-9.5 quake in 1960, triggered a tsunami that killed as many as 5,000 people.

Severed cable disrupts web access - Internet and phone communications between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have been seriously disrupted after submarine cables were severed. "The causes of the cut, which is located in the Mediterranean between Sicily and Tunisia, on sections linking Sicily to Egypt, remain unclear." Experts warned that it may be days before the fault is fixed and said the knock on effect could have serious repercussions on regional economies. The cause of the break is as yet unknown, although some seismic activity was reported near Malta shortly before the cut was detected. It is thought that 65% of traffic to India was down, while services to Singapore, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Taiwan and Pakistan have also been severely affected. Earlier this year, the same line was damaged in the same area - off the Egyptian coast - although only two lines were snapped then. "We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East. Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year. With four you should have an insurance policy. For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern." (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 270 nmi NE of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone CINDA was 373 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Australia warned that the former Tropical Cyclone Billy may redevelop, after the storm weakened when it crossed the nation’s far northwest region. “Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy is moving across the Kimberley and is expected to move off the coast later today or Monday then redevelop into a tropical cyclone. “Gales may develop between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island overnight tonight or during Monday and may extend to Broome late on Monday or Tuesday.” Australia’s northwest, the site of most of the nation’s oil and gas output, may have more tropical cyclones than average this season, potentially threatening operations, the bureau said in October. The region may have five to seven cyclones from Nov. 1 to April 30, up from four last year. Widespread heavy rainfall is probable over northern parts of the Kimberley region in the next few days and local flooding and stream rises are expected.

Tropical Storm Cinda will continue tracking southward from Diago Garcia in the southern Indian Ocean. It was not expected to make landfall Saturday but will likely kick up waves up to 12 feet (3.7 meters) high.
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Dolphin continued tracking eastward in the Western Pacific just south of Japan on Saturday. The storm has lost most of its strength but strong winds and dangerous surf with up to 10- foot-(3-meter-)high waves were still expected.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Unseasonal rains in desert - isolated rain has been experienced in desert areas of the state for the last one week, and continued on Saturday. The unseasonal rain may result in a drop in the minimum temperature by 3 to 5 degree Celsius. The change in the weather has put the security agencies also on their toes. Security has been tightened following fog reducing the visibility in the border areas.
Already into the third week of December and winter has refused to set in the city of Mumbai. The weather is marked by immense sultriness coupled with untimely clouds over the Mumbai skies. According to officials, the clouds are non-rainy in nature and have been formed due to an UNUSUAL INTERACTION between the easterly and westerly systems. “The northern part of India is seeing westerly winds while the western parts have a lot of easterly activities. A clash of these two systems is causing the unseasonal, non-rainy clouds to appear over Mumbai." While last year too, winter set in only in January, dipping below normal to as low as 8.5 degree, the overall weather disturbances this year have been PECULIAR. “This year, we have seen at least four different cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal that have moved towards the west since monsoon. Such systems cause changes in circulation the impact of which lasts for a while. Cities like Mumbai and Pune are still reeling under the impact of these systems."

TRINIDAD - Between Thursday and Friday, at least 41 landslides were recorded in various parts of North Trinidad as heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding transformed solid earth into mudslides. For approximately 19 hours, Maracas was cut-off from the rest of the country as heavy afternoon showers resulted in several landslides along the North Coast Road, making it impossible for commuters to get to their destinations.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Severe winter weather swept across much of the US, as heavy snow and strong winds disrupt transport and power.
Successive waves of wintry weather gripped much of the country Saturday, frustrating holiday travelers from coast to coast and keeping the lights off for thousands of people who lost power after ice storms just days ago. Iowa expected winds up to 35 miles per hour and wind chills of minus 25 just two days after being slammed with sleet, ice and snow. Washington state braced for hurricane-force winds as a storm blew in from the Pacific. The temperature dipped to minus 18 Saturday in Spokane, which expected up to 6 inches of snow on top of the 25 that fell over the past three days. Blizzard warnings were posted for parts of Washington as high winds, snow and freezing rain began coating the state Saturday. Western Washington, including the Seattle area, could see wind gusts as high as 90 mph. Up to 10 inches of snow was expected all along Interstate 5 in Oregon, the state's main north-south route, including Portland. The state braced for wind gusts up to 60 mph. In the Northeast, the aftermath of snow that fell Friday continued to snarl air traffic. And residents who still lacked power after an ice storm last week grew frustrated as officials warned that the storm now battering the Midwest would blow in Sunday, the official first day of winter. North Dakota's snowfall total for December nearly matches the 19.3 inches that fell all last winter. "And it's not even the first day of winter yet." The cold was the major concern in Illinois, where the Weather Service canceled a storm watch in the north but warned that freezing temperatures could cause flooding from ice jams on rivers near the Quad Cities and Rockford. Meteorologists also said the weekend's temperatures, expected to hit minus 5 by late Sunday with wind gusts of 30 mph, could again damage power lines serving those plunged into darkness by ice earlier in the week. More than 77,000 customers in northern Indiana still had no power Saturday after Thursday night's ice storm. In New Hampshire, more than 20,000 homes and businesses awaited restoration of power after an ice storm last week but feared the worst as the next storm approached.

AUSTRALIA - December has been cooler than average, despite the globe continuing to warm. To date, Melbourne's December average temperature is 21.8 degrees. That is 2.4 degrees cooler than the long-term average and almost 4 degrees below the short-term average. December has so far recorded seven days of less than 20 degrees and only one day over 30. Melbourne has also had fewer sunshine hours, with a daily average of just 6.7 hours' sunshine this month, well down on the December average of 7.5 hours. On the upside, catchment rainfall is up to 350 per cent higher than normal.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Swiss glaciers 'in full retreat' - Swiss glaciers are melting away at an accelerating rate and many will vanish this century if climate projections are correct, two new studies suggest. One assessment found that some 10 cubic km of ice have been lost from 1,500 glaciers over the past nine years. The other study, based on a sample of 30 representative glaciers, indicates the group's members are now losing a metre of thickness every year. "The trend is negative, but what we see is that the trend is also steepening...Glaciers are starting to lose mass increasingly fast." The retreat is being driven largely by longer melting seasons. The other key factor in glacier health - the amount of winter snowfall to replace ice melt - shows no long-term changes. "In the south-western part of Switzerland, almost all run-off water from glaciers is temporarily stored and used for electricity production. More than half the electricity consumed in Switzerland is produced from hydropower."

Friday, December 19, 2008 -

If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.
George Bernard Shaw

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/18/08 -
6.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
6.2 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 VANUATU

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOLOMON ISLANDS - Islanders go hungry as rising waters destroy food crops after giant waves hit atolls. Villagers of Luaniua and Pelau in the Malaita outer islands are reportedly suffering from severe food shortage as a result of continuous tidal surge onto their land. The Atolls of Ontong Java have been badly hit and people there are now running out of food. Reports from the two affected villages say since Monday last week they have been experiencing rough seas that eventually turned into a tidal wave. “All their food crops have been washed away by the tidal wave. Heavy rains, king tides and flooding have taken their toll on us and people are very scared. All our food crops have turned yellow and families are living on dry coconuts." The tidal wave have also carried dead fish, corals and sea weeds causing the place to stink.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone BILLY was 428 nmi ENE of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone CINDA was 643 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical depression DOLPHIN was 608 nmi NNW of Saipan, N. Mariana.

Cyclone Billy threatens Kimberley coast - The cyclone developing off northern Australia could become a category 2 and bring winds of up to 140 km/h as it nears the coast. The WA weather bureau has issued a cyclone warning for all coastal areas from Kalumburu to the NT community of Port Keats. Early today, Cyclone Billy was a category one depression 85km west-south-west of Port Keats, packing winds up to 110 km/h and moving south-east at two kilometres an hour.

Tropical storm Cinda has been identified very close to Mauritius. According to the meteorological services, the phenomenon was, at 12.00 GMT, located on the North-North-East of the island. The storm is moving in a general direction at a speed of 10 km/h.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Despite the exit of tropical storm "Ulysses" (Dolphin), flash floods and landslides still loom over parts of Mindanao and the Visayas.

ZAMBIA - More floods will hit parts of Zambia, where some people are already surviving on wild fruits after excessive rains caused crop failure earlier this year. A weather forecast has shown that 34 of the southern African country's 73 districts would again be hit by floods, reducing the country's white maize output to 1.2 million tonnes in the 2007/08 season from 1.3 million tonnes the previous season. They also need to prepare for outbreaks of the water-borne disease cholera, which has spread to Zambia from its southern neighbour Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is facing a cholera epidemic that the United Nations says has killed almost 1,000 people.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - storm-related watches and warnings are currently in effect across virtually ALL of the United States. The fast-moving storm that dumped over 3 inches of snow on Wednesday in Las Vegas will slam a number of major cities east of the Rockies today, including Chicago, New York and Boston, creating the potential for widespread travel problems. The week before Christmas could be the stormiest week of the winter of 2008 - 2009. The near-constant parade of storms that began last week will continue to spread a nasty mix of rain, ice and snow across the country right up until Christmas Eve. The recent storm in the Southwest and a new storm in the Northwest have dropped phenomenal snowfall in some areas. Dry, desert areas that typically see little or no snow through the entire winter have been buried by heavy snow from these single storms. Snow is being measured in feet over interior Washington, while the ground was blanketed with snow in southern Nevada. Three storms over the next week will move from the West Coast across the central Plains into the Midwest and the Northeast. Each will produce substantial snow and heavy rain sandwiched around a dangerous band of icy precipitation. Right on the heels of storm number 1 is the system that brought snow to the Pacific Northwest Thursday and will continue to do so early this morning. Spokane, Wash. has received 23.3 inches of snow from the storm. The snow SHATTERED THE OLD 24-HOUR RECORD of 13 inches set in 1984. The Northwest system will blast across the Plains through Saturday, reaching the Northeast on Sunday. More rain, ice and snow will spread from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard. The storm carries extra baggage in the form of an extremely cold arctic air mass. Storm number 3, poised to move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend another dose of heavy snow and also ice, could be a major troublemaker in the East on Christmas Eve day. It will follow a similar track taken by the two previous systems, gathering strength as it crosses the Plains on its way to the Midwest and the Northeast. (maps)
NEVADA - Las Vegas got their HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN 30 YEARS.

HEALTH THREATS -
Authorities from Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Egypt reported that the H5N1 avian influenza virus has struck poultry again.

Thursday, December 18, 2008 -

Education is the best provision for old age.
Aristotle

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/17/08 -
5.6 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 SOUTHERN ITALY
5.5 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, New Zealand
5.8 FIJI REGION
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

NEW ZEALAND - According to a civil defence briefing just out, New Zealand is due for a major earthquake or eruption in the next 50 years. The new Civil Defence minister has been told that a volcanic eruption is the most under-estimated threat and there is at least a 30% chance of one happening in Taranaki.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone CINDA was 395 nmi SW of Diego Garcia.
Tropical storm DOLPHIN was 578 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

AUSTRALIA - A cyclone watch has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo Island in Western Australia to the WA/Northern Territory border. The Darwin cyclone centre says a tropical low is about 200 kilometres north north-east of Kalumburu and about 400 kilometres west of Darwin. "We're expecting it to get fairly close to the north Kimberley coast up in the vicinity of Kalumburu, which is right on the top there - probably during tomorrow and then remain slow-moving there for a day or so and it's during that time the cyclone may form on Friday. At present there's no direct threat to the Northern Territory, but northern parts of Western Australia are likely to come under the influence of this tropical low during the next couple of days."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - On Tuesday, for the second consecutive day, smog shrouded the city and Kolkata airport and left 800-odd passengers cursing the FREAK WEATHER PHENOMENON. Even rescheduling of flight timings did not help. Railway services were also hit. Visibility fell sharply after 8.30 pm on Monday. The smog cleared up for just 10 minutes the next morning but there was no respite till 8 am.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
UNUSUAL snowstorm closes three major Southern California freeways - An UNUSUALLY STRONG arctic blast dumped snow over a large swath of Southern California mountains and high deserts Wednesday, shutting down some of the state's busiest freeways, stranding thousands of motorists and cutting off several communities. The storm's combination of frigid air, powerful winds and heavy precipitation dropped the snow level to an UNUSUALLY LOW 2,000 feet, with at least 20 inches of snow in Wrightwood, 5 inches in the hills above Malibu and 6 inches or more in Palmdale, where all major routes from Los Angeles were blocked. Forecasters expect the cold temperatures to continue today as the storm moves out, and another storm is expected to hit the region Sunday night. The closures caused traffic nightmares for drivers trying to get in or out of Southern California. The severity of the storm caught many by surprise, leaving them stranded on the side of freeways, at rest stops and trying to stay warm inside their cars along snow-packed roads around Big Bear. The storms brought steady rain to many parts of the Los Angeles Basin, and major street flooding was reported in Palm Springs. The combination of moisture swept in off the coast and cold temperatures made this storm UNUSUALLY SNOWY. "Moisture has been pumping into the Antelope Valley all day and the temperatures have been cold enough, so we are getting a lot of snow. This is a FAIRLY UNUSUAL STORM. We don't usually get a cold storm like this until January. But this is our cold, rainy season so every once in a while you can get a storm like this." The snowfall is expected to ease overnight, but frigid temperatures are predicted into today. Another storm could strike as soon as Sunday night or Monday morning but it is not expected to bring as much cold or snow.
NEVADA - A RARE SNOWFALL has snarled ground and air traffic. The UNUSUAL WEATHER on the famed Las Vegas Strip has left palm trees and marquees with a white dusting. Visitors posed for photos in snow piles around the famous "Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas" sign. Forecasters say overnight accumulations could reach 3 inches on the Strip. Other locations are forecast to receive as much as 8 inches in the second winter storm this week to drop snow on the desert city.

SPACE WEATHER-
NEW ZEALAND - 12/13/08 - Fire at Auckland Warehouse Caused by Meteorite Impact? A fire erupted in an Auckland warehouse shortly after several eyewitness reported seeing a meteorite over the North Island of New Zealand. One witness even went as far to say that he watched the fiery object hit the Ponsonby area of the city, followed by an exploding noise. The time of the several eyewitness reports and the start of the blaze appears to correlate (although the local media is a little sketchy about the details at the moment). Apparently the fire caused serious roof damage to the warehouse and there was one minor casualty (a man who happened to be in the building at the time). However, none of the surrounding buildings were touched. The meteorite was observed at around 10pm, and the fire was eventually extinguished at 11:30pm. A New Zealand resident said, "I saw the meteorite from the top of Mount Eden and I have a BSc in Geology so have a good understanding of what I saw. The blinding green flash was the meteorite entering our atmosphere, it didn’t seem to break the sound barrier as it entered. It looked like it was burning out and left a vapor trail that hung for about five minutes. It was going very fast and would have been burning at about 2,000 degrees, the same as basaltic magma. To clarify, a meteorite is smaller than a metre in diameter and they are not that rare. The meteorite was travelling towards the Ponsonby area and I am not at all suprised that it caused a building to ignite."

HEALTH THREATS -
Doctors fear a new wave of the human form of "mad cow disease" is about to hit Britain. In the UK, 164 people have died of variant CJD, which originally came from cows infected with BSE, and all cases shared a version of a certain gene. The number of human victims peaked in the year 2000 and there are now only a handful of cases a year. But there is a new case in a separate genetic group. The government's chief adviser on vCJD said estimates were that up to 350 people could become affected by this new type. What is of concern to doctors in the new case is that the individual concerned has a particular genetic make-up and it is the first case to appear of that type. There is a key gene linked to vCJD and 42% of the population have a version of that gene, known as MM. It looked like the disease had almost gone away, but this new case is from a group with a version of the gene called MV. This raises fears that the 47% of the population who have this gene are now at risk. "I want people to know out there that vCJD hasn't gone away and it's still killing people... and now it looks like it's the next wave." While not much can be done about those who might already have been infected by eating BSE-infected meat, the chances of secondary infection via blood donors who might be "silent carriers" of the disease could be minimised.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008 -

Observe your enemies, for they first find out your faults.
Antisthenes

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/16/08 -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MARSHALL ISLANDS - 300 Displaced by High Waves, Homes Moved off Foundations. Several hundred people evacuated their homes Monday night after high waves flooded low-lying areas Monday evening — the third time in a week that high waves have inundated this coral atoll. Island residents were bracing for another onslaught of high waves and flooding Tuesday evening as government disaster officer officials warned that 10-12 foot swells could hit again at high tide at sunset. High waves first inundated some sections of Majuro last Tuesday, then hit again Sunday evening — both times coinciding with high tides, though the tides this month are significantly lower, at just over five feet, than peak high tides that often reach six or seven feet in February. The eastern coast of Majuro appeared to be hardest hit, with waves slamming seawalls and flooding onto the roads and into houses. Surprisingly, the high tide at 1:30 pm Tuesday was only slightly over four feet (1.2 meters) — nearly two feet less than when the highest tides traditionally hit in January and February. But the high tide coincided with high waves generated from a low-pressure weather system in the Wake Island area, about 500 miles (800 Km) north of Majuro. The low-pressure system that is moving west caused the nine-to-ten foot waves to roll in. The system went on to cause flash flooding throughout the Federated States of Micronesia. Island nations in the North and South Pacific struggled to cope with a new round of devastating tidal surges that brought severe flooding to low-lying regions over thousands of square miles.

AUSTRALIA - The climate gods whipped up surf conditions on Sydney Harbour Monday thanks to a RARE PHENOMENON usually associated with hurricanes and cyclones. The freak waves at Fairlight Beach may have been due to "storm surges" after the recent storms that buffeted Australia's east coast. The last time Fairlight saw serious surf was in March 2006 when Tropical Cyclone Larry battered Queensland, bringing 2m swells to the tiny beach. Storm surges, or "king tides" in some parts of the world, occur when offshore low pressure systems and high winds combine to pile water up higher than the normal sea level. Typically produced by tropical hurricanes, major storm surges can be devastating.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 04S was 367 nmi WSW of Diego Garcia.
Typhoon DOLPHIN was 498 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Typhoon Ulysses’ moving towards Japan - Typhoon “Ulysses” (international codename: Dolphin) no longer poses a threat to the Philippines. The typhoon has shifted its path and was moving northward to Japan. “There is a very low possibility that Ulysses will still head for the Bicol region." The tail end of the cold front in Northern Luzon pulled Ulysses away from the country.
At least 23 people were confirmed dead while 31 remained missing after a ferry boat plying the Calayan-Aparri route capsized Sunday evening. The weather was good when the boat left the island town of Calayan at 8 a.m. Sunday. It was expected to dock at the Aparri port at around 4 p.m. but the weather turned bad when it was within the vicinity of where the South China Sea, the Pacific Ocean and the Cagayan River converge. Of the nearly 100 passengers, 44 were rescued. Reportedly there was overloading. Initial reports had also said the banca containing nearly 100 passengers capsized due to the big waves and strong current. Coastal towns were informed of gale warnings prior to the boat sinking, a government official said, as typhoon Dolphin entered Philippine territory.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low off the Darwin coast could develop into the first tropical cyclone of this wet season. A weak low is developing between Timor and the Tiwi Islands. There is a high chance of a cyclone forming on Thursday. If the low does develop into a cyclone, it would most likely head west towards the Kimberley Coast and is unlikely to affect the Northern Territory. "Some guidance is just taking it straightaway west in which case it would not impact on the Australian mainland at all. There are other diagnostic tools which are saying it may head towards the Kimberley Coast later in the week, anytime between Wednesday and Friday at this stage." Flooding is also tipped across the north-western Australia over the next week if the low develops into a cyclone. But the low has already brought persistent rain to the Top End in the last 24 hours, with 98 millimetres recorded at Leanyer in suburban Darwin. The bureau says the monsoon could last for up to a week and marks the end of the build-up and the beginning of the wet.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
KENYA - Hunger looms as mudslides threaten crops - Timbwoiyo Village in Baringo Central was a relatively good place to live in until two years ago, when residents were warned that the area was prone to potentially deadly landslides. Now, with the ground already soggy and more rains expected, the village on the slopes of the breathtaking Tugen Hills is no longer habitable. The mud slides have caused cracks on the walls and floors of some houses, forcing owners to move out for fear that the houses could collapse any time. More than 750 have been asked to move out of Ngetmoi Location to safer grounds since the landslides started occurring. Besides pulling down buildings, the landslides have also destroyed a section of Kabarnet-Tenges road. The landslides usually occur at night, accompanied by rumblings. “It is so scary to live here because we do not know what will happen next." It has become difficult for people to sleep at night due to fear and the noise of the mud sliding downhill. Many have refused to leave, saying they have nowhere else to go. Due to its rich agricultural soil, Timboiywo provided food supplies and vegetables to the nearby Kabarnet and Marigat towns and other adjoining areas. At the onset of the long rains, farmers could grow maize, beans, millet, tomatoes and other food crops. Now, the land is sinking and the farmers are at a loss. Geologists from Rift Valley Province are yet to assess the situation, but an official at the Geology Department confirmed that the area had many fault lines. “Surface fault ruptures occur when an earthquake breaks the earth’s surface. Such ruptures cause localised but intense devastation.” According to residents, the problem occurred first in 1987 and in 1997 again after the El Niño rains.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - "an UNUSUAL upper level flow pattern" will continue to bring cold and wet weather systems from Canada and the northern Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest for the remainder of the week. Two major storms are expected in Oregon Wednesday and Thursday, and Saturday or Sunday, but at this point is is difficult to predict how severe the snowfall will be and whether it will be snow, freezing rain or rain in the valleys.

MINNESOTA - In St. Cloud the low temperature of 24 degrees below zero Tuesday morning SET A RECORD for Dec. 16. The old mark of 21 degrees below zero was recorded in 1953 and 1963. The temperature only reached 7 below zero Monday, which tied a record for the coldest high temperature for Dec. 15. That record was set in 1916 and 1951. Monday’s average temperature was 13 degrees below zero. That tied the 1916 record for coldest average temperature for the date. Still, as Central Minnesotans well know, such cold snaps aren’t rare. St. Cloud averages five or six days with a low of at least 20 degrees below zero each winter. RECORD COLD settled across Minnesota following a weekend winter storm. Temperatures early Tuesday ranged between 15 and 25 degrees below zero across northern and Central Minnesota. Hibbing bottomed out at 32 below, International Falls dropped to 28 below and the Duluth airport recorded a low of 22 below.

FRANCE, SPAIN - Tens of thousands of people were left without power or transport by FREAK snowstorms in south-central France on Sunday. Traffic was blocked on several highways, while heavy snow in the elevated Massif Central region near the Alps cut train lines between Béziers and Clermont-Ferrand. The snow was expected to settle in drifts ranging anywhere between six inches to two feet. Spain is also suffering from UNUSUAL WEATHER after a weekend of snow, rain and plummeting temperatures. Saturday night, more than 3,000 cars were trapped on mountain roads near Madrid.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ALASKA - UNUSUAL warmth prevailed across Alaska's North Slope on the weekend, where Barrow (29 degrees F on December 13) posted a DAILY RECORD HIGH.

AUSTRALIA - 2008 ONE OF HOTTEST, CRAZIEST YEARS EVER - In some parts of the country it feels like summer has not even begun, yet 2008 has been one of the hottest years ever. Parts of Australia endured some of their driest and hottest years on record in 2008. Climate extremes - including floods, persistent droughts, snow storms and heatwaves - were recorded in many parts of the world. While Arctic Sea ice dropped to its second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, regions such as southern Australia experienced long periods of scorching temperatures. Adelaide endured 15 consecutive days of maximum temperatures above 35 degrees, its LONGEST RUNNING HEATWAVE ON RECORD, while Victoria had its ninth driest year since records began. "These conditions exacerbated severe water shortages in the agriculturally important Murray-Darling Basin, resulting in widespread crop failures in the area." Conversely, several significant rainfall events affected eastern Australia early in the year, causing major flooding, particularly in Queensland, while widespread heavy rains across most of the continent in November ended an extremely dry period in central Australia. While things averaged out over the globe, overall Australia had been warmer than the global average, where recent rain events were welcome but more were needed to break the drought. "There are some good signs at the moment going into next year for Australian rainfall - as to whether that will end the drought is another thing because we need need many years of rainfall to catch up in our dams."

More than 2 trillion tons of land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted since 2003, according to new NASA satellite data that show the latest signs of what scientists say is global warming. More than half of the loss of landlocked ice in the past five years has occurred in Greenland. The water melting from Greenland in the past five years would fill up about 11 Chesapeake Bays, and the Greenland melt seems to be accelerating. Greenland figures for the summer of 2008 aren't complete yet, but this year's ice loss, while still significant, won't be as severe as 2007. The news was better for Alaska. After a precipitous drop in 2005, land ice increased slightly in 2008 because of large winter snowfalls. Since 2003, when the NASA satellite started taking measurements, Alaska has lost 400 billion tons of land ice. In the 1990s, Greenland didn't add to world sea level rise; now that island is adding about half a millimeter of sea level rise a year. Between Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska, melting land ice has raised global sea levels about one-fifth of an inch in the past five years. Sea levels also rise from water expanding as it warms. Other research points to more melting concerns from global warming, especially with sea ice. "It's not getting better; it's continuing to show strong signs of warming and amplification. There's no reversal taking place." Scientists studying sea ice will announce that parts of the Arctic north of Alaska were 9 to 10 degrees warmer this past fall, a strong early indication of what researchers call the Arctic amplification effect. That's when the Arctic warms faster than predicted, and warming there is accelerating faster than elsewhere on the globe. As sea ice melts, the Arctic waters absorb more heat in the summer, having lost the reflective powers of vast packs of white ice. That absorbed heat is released into the air in the fall. That has led to autumn temperatures in the last several years that are six to 10 degrees warmer than they were in the 1980s, "The pace of change is starting to outstrip our ability to keep up with it, in terms of our understanding of it." Two other studies coming out at the conference assess how Arctic thawing is releasing methane - the second most potent greenhouse gas. One study shows that the loss of sea ice warms the water, which warms the permafrost on nearby land in Alaska, thus producing methane. A second study suggests even larger amounts of frozen methane are trapped in lakebeds and sea bottoms around Siberia and they are starting to bubble to the surface in some spots in alarming amounts. In late summer, methane bubbling up from parts of the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea was at levels that were 10 times higher than they were in the mid-1990s. The amounts of methane in the region could dramatically increase global warming if they get released. That "should alarm people."

SPACE WEATHER-
Breach in Earth's magnetic field - NASA's five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in Earth's magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously thought to exist. Solar wind can flow in through the opening to "load up" the magnetosphere for powerful geomagnetic storms. But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed at the strange and unexpected way it forms, overturning long-held ideas of space physics. "We're entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It's the perfect sequence for a really big event." "This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years."

Yesterday, something on the far side of the sun exploded and hurled a massive cloud of debris (a CME) over the eastern limb. NASA's Stereo-B spacecraft is stationed over the sun's eastern limb, but it was not taking pictures at the probable time of the eruption, so details of the blast are unknown. The CME could herald an active region (e.g., a sunspot or perhaps an unstable magnetic filament) turning to face Earth in the days ahead.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008 -

Morality, like art, means drawing a line someplace.
Oscar Wilde

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/15/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS


SWEDEN, DENMARK - A mild earthquake measuring 4.7 on the open Richter scale shook Denmark Monday morning, with concerned members of the public across the country telephoning police and rescue services. The quake, which had its epicentre in southern Sweden, was ONE OF THE STRONGEST EVER TO HIT DENMARK. There are no reports of casualties or damage although there were reports of people in some high rise buldings rushing outside as windows and cupboards shook and buildings swayed briefly. A tremor of 4.7 on the Richter scale has only been measured in the region once before, in 1985.

CALIFORNIA - A series of small earthquakes rumbled through an uninhabited area west of Death Valley Sunday, following dozens of other small temblors in recent days. The United States Geological Survey has reported at least 55 earthquakes, ranging in magnitude from 1.1 to 4.0, since Friday in the desert area about 150 miles north of Los Angeles. The earthquakes have caused only weak shaking and no damage. Three quakes Sunday - measuring 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4 - followed a 4.0 quake Saturday morning. Though the "swarm of [small] earthquakes" is an UNUSUAL PATTERN, it was not cause for concern about a bigger earthquake. More commonly, a larger earthquake is followed by several smaller aftershocks. The most likely outcome is that the earthquakes will taper off. This same area of the desert experienced three 4.0-magnitude earthquakes in February. So many earthquakes in one area is more typical of places that are volcanic in nature.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
SOUTH CAROLINA - 12/14/08 - Sunday’s “boom” related to Tuesday’s 3.6 quake? A number of people in the Lowcountry reported “a boom” that they heard early Sunday afternoon. Most of them live along the coast. There is something known as the Seneca Guns. It’s the theory that there are cracks in the ocean floor and when gas escapes from those cracks, it causes a boom. Nobody knows for sure if that’s what happened. However, a James Island woman insisted that she felt an earthquake because her house shook. An assistant geology professor at the College of Charleston doesn’t believe the two were connected. “Generally you hear something, you’re talking about a sonic boom. So it’s something in the atmosphere. It would not be connected to an earthquake. The big difference obviously is with an earthquake you feel them then you may hear things rattling. You generally don’t hear the earthquake. A sonic boom is something caused through the air. People will hear them very clearly and their wave may actually rattle the house. I wouldn’t find any connection (to an earthquake).“ [SITE NOTE - a webpage from the USGS indicates there is a connection between sounds and earthquakes. Some even in Charleston in the past.]
Only minor damage has been reported from the quake. Approximately 71 earthquakes of this size were recorded in South Carolina between 1973 and 2007.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA has been pummelled by non-stop tidal waves and unusually high tides that have forced 75,000 people from their homes this month. The autonomous PNG region of Bougainville, the Solomon Islands, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia were also affected by the high waves. "Half the population of (PNG's) Manus Island has been displaced...The government of Papua New Guinea has declared a state of national disaster...The fact that the affected islands are scattered and the NEVER-ENDING NATURE of the tidal waves make the evaluation of the situation very difficult."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon DOLPHIN was 549 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

AUSTRALIA - Oil and gas exploration workers have been evacuated from rigs in the Browse Basin amid concerns a cyclone is building off the West Australian north coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UNUSUALLY HEAVY rains have hit Morocco and Algeria in recent months and dozens have been killed by flash floods, road accidents and collapsing buildings. On the Spanish island of Mallorca, at least four workers were buried under tonnes of rubble when a hotel partially collapsed today following torrential rain. Five members of the same family were crushed to death when their house collapsed during a rainstorm in northeast Morocco.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
This year is coolest since 2000 - Global average temperatures in 2008 fell to levels not seen since 2000, though it was still one of the 10 warmest years on record.

HEALTH THREATS -
Fresh bird flu outbreak in India - Authorities in India's West Bengal state identify the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in thousands of dead chickens.

380,000 chickens killed in bird flu cull in China - Chinese authorities have begun destroying and vaccinating poultry after an outbreak of bird flu was discovered in the east of the country.

Monday, December 15, 2008 -

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Napoleon Bonaparte

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/14/08 -
5.4 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon DOLPHIN was 447 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - "Ulysses" (international codename: Dolphin) is due to make its presence felt in Bicol on Wednesday at the earliest. "Ulysses" is still too far to directly affect any part of the country. It will likely bring more winds than rain in areas it will affect. "Ulysses" will likely be the last cyclone to pass Philippine territory this year. There are no cyclones expected until February 2009.

AUSTRALIA - The Bureau of Meteorology is warning of the possibility of a cyclone in the North West before the end of the week. The region experiences an average of six to seven cyclones between December and April but this season is expected be worse than usual. A low pressure system currently north west of Darwin is likely to bring monsoonal showers to the Kimberley at the end of this week. Rains may travel as far south as Broome. "At the moment there's a low pressure system north-west of Darwin and we're monitoring that to see if it could develop into a cyclone. There is some potential for later in the week, we could see some activity. If not a cyclone, then a monsoonal low, which can still bring a lot of rain to the area." Conditions also favour a cyclone occurring between the 21st and 28th of the December. (map)

Hurricane Fay could happen again - National Weather Service meteorologists in the Melbourne, Florida, office say they have never seen anything like Tropical Storm Fay. "It intensified over the land mass, which is VERY RARE. It was a historic rainfall event." The weather service recorded up to 20 inches of rain in north Melbourne and on north Merritt Island, and a north Melbourne resident reported 27 1/2 inches in his rain gauge. Officials researched storms dating back to the 1930s, and the closest they found to Fay's totals was Hurricane King in 1950, with 15 1/2 inches of rain. Fay gained strength as it swept over the Everglades because it was picking up water from the giant River of Grass. The storm was then locked into place when an upper trough moved away, the steering system weakened and high pressure developed. So, will we ever see anything like it again? "Unfortunately, you can never say that. It was an extremely unusual and rare event. Another 20- to 30-inch rainfall in Central Florida could happen."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IOWA - Experts say serious flood frequency may increase - Time will tell if the record floods of 2008 are an aberration or the beginning of a trend. But some experts say the likelihood of serious floods in Iowa is increasing in frequency. Increases in Iowa's annual precipitation, coupled with anticipated precipitation increases linked to global warming, greatly increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe flooding. Since 1950, Iowa's annual precipitation has increased by 10 percent, which in turn has doubled the amount of water carried by rivers in the state. A 10 percent increase in precipitation equates to roughly 3 more inches per year, making rivers six times more prone to flooding because it all runs off. What had been considered a 100-year flood is now a 17-year flood. Though the parameters of a 100-year and 500-year floods have increased dramatically, the odds of another flood like the one in June are about 1 in 250 in a given year. There was a lot of rain, but the rain was not as extraordinary as the flood. The timing and spacing of the rainfall, combined with drainage patterns within the Cedar Rapids watershed caused the runoff to converge just upstream of Cedar Rapids on June 13. That created a "traffic jam" which led to the large-scale flooding.

NEW JERSEY - Flood insurance deluge predicted in Niagara County. By 2010, hundreds of Niagara County homeowners who never had to buy flood insurance before may find themselves doing so. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has compiled new flood plain maps of the county, and in many locations, the flood zones have expanded. The legal definition of a flood zone is a location where there is a 1 percent chance each year of a flood so severe that it might occur only once in 100 years. “The probability of a 100- year flood occurring in any given location is 26% over a 30-year period.” In 2003, Congress passed a law ordering FEMA to update flood maps nationwide. “Many existing flood maps in municipalities across the United States are very old — 11, 15, 25 years old — and they’re not very accurate. Today’s technology is very accurate.”

HAWAII - Mayor expects flood damage to exceed $2.7 million. The hardest hit areas of the island of Oahu include Haleiwa, Waialua, Otake Camp and Waianae. 37 homes so far have been counted as severely damaged. Some of the homes had been swept off their foundations by flood waters, others had destroyed roofs.

ITALY - The waters of the River Tiber in Rome hit record levels after three days of heavy rain on Saturday, triggering fears that the historic centre of the Italian capital might be flooded. A boat smashed into the Sisto Bridge near the Vatican, and officials feared the debris could act as a dam and were working to remove it before further rainstorms expected on Sunday. Rains have hit much of Italy this week, causing an estimated 200 million euros (£180 million) of damage to agriculture. (photo) Days of relentless rain caused the river to rise by more than 15ft.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FRANCE - Heavy snowfall and rainstorms across southern France cut power lines and trapped people in cars and trains overnight. About 100,000 households were without electricity. Two thousand people were stuck on trains running along the Mediterranean coast that came to a standstill when rainstorms brought down power lines. Up to 60cm of snow fell in hilly regions over 24 hours and 12 French departments have been put on avalanche alerts. Heavy winds brought a ski lift at Sept Laux in the Isere region to a standstill and emergency services rescued 50 skiers stuck on it. A men's World Cup slalom competition at Val d'Isere was called off because the snow storms were so intense.

CANADA - Calgary in grip of deep freeze. Storm grounds flights, blamed for two deaths. A stinging Arctic storm that swept into southern Alberta on Friday was expected to worsen through the weekend, with plummeting temperatures, slick roads and bone-chilling winds leading emergency officials to issue a series of warnings about the risks of venturing outside. The storm's arrival clogged roads, grounded air travellers and was cited in at least two deaths on Alberta roads. There is little relief in sight. The three-day outlook calls for cold, cold and really cold, with wind chills approaching -40 C. While not record-breaking, the expected weekend temperatures should be some of the coldest seen in recent Decembers. "This time of year you should be getting highs of about -1 C in Calgary. This is 23-degrees cooler than it should be this time of year."

U.S. - Life-Threatening Blizzard Underway - around a storm system tracking through the northern Plains, bitterly cold air, strong winds and snow combined to create a potentially life-threatening blizzard from Montana to the Dakotas into Saturday night. By Saturday afternoon, some locations across Montana had already picked up 8 inches of snow. Widespread additional amounts of 3 to 6 inches were expected across eastern Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas through Sunday, while parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota will receive more than a foot. Winds will continue whipping around the storm at greater than 40 mph with even higher gusts. This will continue to cause blowing and drifting of the heavy falling snow, bringing visibilities near zero at times. Temperatures will plummet 20 to 40 degrees into Sunday over the same areas impacted by the blizzard. This dangerous subzero cold will last through the beginning of the week, while gusty winds through Sunday bring AccuWeather RealFeel ® temperatures as low as -50 degrees. One report out of an area near Fairfield, Montana, described the blizzard as the "WORST STORM SEEN IN DECADES." The report stated winds were so strong Friday night that a person could barely stand.
While blizzard conditions continue spreading across the northern Plains, snow will fall from the Pacific Northwest through the Intermountain West through the rest of the weekend. Snow levels in the Northwest dropped below 500 feet Saturday, so places that rarely have snow are receiving some this weekend. Upwards of 3 to 6 inches are expected north and east of the cities in the foothills with more than a foot over the high peaks in the Cascades.
While the West braces for powerful winter weather, New Englanders are dealing with the aftermath of the potent storm that slammed up the East Coast Thursday into Friday. Rain, snow and ice across the Northeast wound down on Friday as the storm sped into Atlantic Canada, leaving behind a trail of destruction from Louisiana to Maine. While the storm on Thursday brought rare snow to New Orleans and sparked damaging thunderstorms and at least one tornado across the Deep South, it is New England that has been hardest hit. (maps)

SPACE WEATHER-
CANADA - Saskatoon has experienced a number of odd things over the past few weeks beginning with a huge falling meteor back on November 20th, then a possible large falling star last weekend, and a tremor of some sort which shook the west side of Saskatoon for a few seconds Thursday. The annual Geminids meteor shower will take place over the next few nights. The earth is plowing through a river of debris in space and that debris is being caught in the earth's gravity. As it's pulled in, it heats up and makes the atmosphere glow.

Sunday, December 14, 2008 -

The strength of the United States is not the gold at Fort Knox or the weapons of mass destruction that we have,
but the sum total of the education and the character of our people.
Claiborne Pell

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/13/08 -
5.2 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.2 VANUATU
5.4 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.8 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.1 GREECE
12/12/08 -
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

INDONESIA - 2004 tsunami just the beginning of EARTHQUAKE SUPERCYCLE, say scientists. Massive earthquakes in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra are just the beginning. Researchers expect a 30-year cycle of mega-quakes like the one that caused the 2004 tsunami. Scientists studying Sumatran reefs say the coral there have experienced massive die-offs as well as new horizontal growth about every two hundred years. Moreover, these changes happened in fits and starts over phases of about 30 - 100 years. That suggests the area experiences what's called an "earthquake supercycle" for several decades every two centuries. Last year's 8.4 quake off the coast of Sumatra is probably the first quake in a new supercycle, since the last big die-off in the coral reefs took place in 1833. Other quake cycles hit in 1374, 1596, 1675, and 1797. (photo)
International experts are predicting the next such disaster could cause even more deaths - this time in the Mentawi Islands, which mainly comprises of Padang and Bengkulu. After studying the pattern of ancient earthquakes at reefs near the islands, they say seismic stresses are still building up, even after three large quakes off the coast in September last year. In fact, the study showed that the three large earthquakes signal the start of the next big sequence of earthquakes to hit West Sumatra. "If the remaining earthquake happens just as one event, it could be a magnitude of 8.8. If it happens in a series of events, it could be a series of 8 pluses. That is a bit speculative, but it is a bit of a warning that it could happen." If the team is correct, this could prove devastating to Padang, which has a population more than twice that of Bandar Aceh of 350,000. And the resulting tsunami, they say, could be over five metres high. Besides widespread damage to Western Sumatra, there is also the possibility that the Maldives and Mauritius could be hit. (photo)

TSUNAMI -
HAWAII - Hilo and other East Hawaii communities suffered immense damage from tsunamis in 1946 and 1960 - the latter after the installation of an advance warning system, which many ignored to their peril. Since then, the state has been more proactive in educating residents, with monthly tests of the civil defense sirens that would warn low-lying communities of the need to evacuate immediately, and evacuation maps in local phone books.

VOLCANOES -
Did magnetic blip trigger mass extinction? Rising hot material upset convection in Earth's core, says new theory. More than 250 million years ago, a plume of super-hot material began rising through Earth's mantle, upsetting convection in the core and throwing the planet's magnetic field into disarray. That event may have caused one of the worst mass extinction events in the planet's history, leaving behind a barren volcanic wasteland. The weakening of Earth's magnetic field exposed the surface to a shower of cosmic radiation. The radiation broke nitrogen in the atmosphere into ions that acted as seeds for clouds enshrouding the planet. "This would've caused severe cooling and a drop in sea level" as the cool temperatures allowed massive ice sheets to accumulate on the continents. "If you check the rock record at that time, tropical coral reefs die first. Then you start to see fauna from mid latitudes move into the tropics. It all points to cooling." The superplume disrupted the magnetic field and put a strain on creatures living on the surface, but it was only the beginning. Five million years later it reached the surface, and the hot material punched through the crust, erupting as three successive supervolcanoes. Today the remnants of those volcanoes are scattered through India, China and Norway.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical Storm Dolphin will continue tracking westward toward the Philippines today and will intensify into a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph (120 kph) winds gusting up to 92 mph (148 kph). The storm will bring heavy downpours and dangerous surf with 17 foot (5 meter) wave heights.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ITALY - The waters of the Tiber in Rome HIT A RECORD LEVEL overnight, as a young man was feared drowned after falling into the swollen river. So far four people are known to have died in the bad weather which has buffeted the country since Wednesday. Emergency services were working on trying to free three boats which had gotten stuck under one of the city's historic bridges. The level of the Tiber in the past few days had NOT BEEN SEEN FOR 40 YEARS. More rain fell in the night of Wednesday to Thursday in Rome than the average rainfall for the whole month of December. Weathermen forecast more rainfall for today.

HAWAII - Heavy rains and gusty winds pummeled O'ahu Thursday, flooding dozens of homes and roads, causing landslides and cutting power to thousands. Flooding has been reported islandwide, but hardest hits areas of O'ahu include Wahiawa, Wai'anae, Waialua, La'ie and Hau'ula. The wet weather was caused by a strong Kona low northwest of the state. And some areas of the state got near-record rainfall. "This is a pretty significant event." At 7:30 a.m., a rain gauge in Kane'ohe showed rain was coming down at a rate of 3.12 inches an hour — something forecast to happen just ONCE EVERY 22 YEARS. A Poamoho rain gauge showed rain coming down at 3.84 inches an hour at 6:30 a.m., which forecasters predict happens just ONCE EVERY 31 YEARS. (photos)

BRITAIN - Thirty people had to be rescued from cars as parts of Somerset were hit by flash floods up to 3ft (90cm) deep.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - Jetstream is still too far south. Raw Arctic winds have left Britain shivering in its COLDEST START TO WINTER FOR THREE DECADES. The average temperature for the first third of December has been 1.7C (35F), well down on the long-term average for this time of 4.7C (40.5F). The bitter cold is a rude reminder of what winter used to be like and in stark contrast to the recent run of remarkably mild winters, when trees hung on to their leaves well into December and frogs were seen spawning in ponds. An early taste of winter came with the freakish snows of October, and this month could prove to be the worst month of the year for underpar temperatures. The last time that the country suffered such an outrageous early winter bout of cold was in December 1976, when the average temperature was a bonechilling 0.8C (33.4F). Because the jetstream has swung south around the UK, it has left the country under a mass of frigid air. The jetstream is believed to be behaving like this because of events thousands of miles away, in the Pacific Ocean. For more than two years, the tropical waters of the Pacific have turned UNUSUALLY COOL, a phenomenon called La Niña. This has upset the pressure systems across the Pacific and knocked the jetstream off course. “This has been an UNUSUALLY LONG EPISODE of La Niña, and could last well into spring. It pushes the probabilities towards a drier, colder early winter and a warmer, wetter end to winter – but can’t guarantee it because all these signals can be outweighed by atmospheric chaos.”

U.S. - Ice storm cripples north-east US - Up to one million people have been left without power in the north-eastern US after ONE OF THE WORST ICE STORMS IN A DECADE. The RECORD RAINFALL amounts would have been a 30" snowfall.

FINANCIALS-
Catastrophe bonds, unshaken by a decade of hurricanes and earthquakes, are buckling in this year’s financial tsunami. The bonds promise investors as much as 10 percentage points more than benchmark interest rates unless insurers reclaim money to pay disaster claims. That happened only once before after Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005. Property damages exceeded the threshold that entitled Zurich Financial Services AG to keep investor funds for the Kamp Re cat bond it sold earlier that year. So-called 'cat bonds' were posting annualized returns of as much as 8.3 percent as recently as August, even as the credit crunch left investors in bonds of companies with similar ratings nursing losses of 14.9 cents on the dollar. All that changed with the Sept. 15 collapse of New York- based securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which sold contracts to protect returns on four cat bonds. Lehman’s bankruptcy nullified the guarantees, and Standard & Poor’s said a few weeks later that two cat bonds are holding assets with “significant impairments.” S&P said in a report last month that it expects the four bonds to default “in the near future.” Cat bond sales fell to $2.7 billion this year from a record $7 billion in 2007.

Friday, December 12, 2008 -

There are 10 to the 11th power of stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number.
But it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit!
We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.
Richard Feynman

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/11/08 -
6.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.3 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.7 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 TONGA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - The disaster caused by the king tide that struck parts of Papua New Guinea is spreading causing more devastation and displacing more people. The number of people displaced has risen to 50,000 and 'the number could be higher as reports from other provinces have not yet reached them'. The confirmed reported numbers of people displaced were New Ireland 20,000, 24 outer islands in Manus 20,000 while 5500 are homeless in the Bougainville Atoll communities of Mortlock, Carterets, Tasman. The latest to be added to the list of devastated as of 2pm Wednesady "was Morobe Province with houses in Wasu (LLG), Sialum LLG and Siassi LLG completely washed away". The figures could be much higher but there were communication difficulties with provinces like East Sepik, Madang and all outer islands both in Manus and other provinces.
More big swells could be heading for Papua New Guinea's New Ireland province, which is still struggling to assess the damage caused by UNUSUALLY high king tides that struck earlier this week. Global warming, volcanic activity and a huge swell from Hawaii are just some of the explanations from New Ireland's locals for the huge seas this week. The Papua New Guinea defence boat has evacuated 120 people from a low lying island, and a local Red Cross team is supplying water and makeshift shelters on the New Ireland main land. Papua New Guinea's national weather office has warned more big swells are on their way.

OREGON - Sneaker-wave deaths at highest level since 2000 - "Sneaker" waves rising unpredictably from the surf have claimed five lives on the Oregon Coast in the past two months. "Generally, it's people being in the wrong place at the wrong time." Sneaker waves are sometimes called little tsunamis and they rise from the surf with zero predictability. They generally occur when two or more smaller waves fall into sync, piling atop each other to form one large wave often twice the size of others within the series of waves — called "sets." They are a universal coastal phenomenon, occurring even during periods of little surf. But the Pacific beaches from Northern California to the Canadian border tend to generate some of the most notable of clashes with people. Sometimes, the force of an incoming sneaker wave can knock a person down, and the returning surge can suck them out to sea.

Bangladesh 'is growing' due to FREAK environmental conditions - Bangladesh is often held up as the 'ground zero' of climate change, with environmental experts predicting that rising sea levels could engulf much of the country of 150 million people within the next 50 years. But a recent survey by a Bangladeshi research institute shows that the country's landmass has actually increased by more than 1,000 square km (386 square miles) since 1973, due to rivers dumping sediment as they meet the sea. Bangladesh could also gain another 1,000 square km by 2050. "The satellite images show that Bangladesh's landmass has been growing by about 20 square kilometres annually in the last few years." One of the most crowded countries on the planet, Bangladesh lies on a vast delta, mostly less than 10 metres above sea level, and suffers devastating floods, cyclones and tornadoes almost every year. "There will undoubtedly be a sea level rise in coming decades, but I can't agree that Bangladesh will be completely under water. Every year we are losing some land and gaining some land, but gaining more than we are losing."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm TWENTYSEVEN was 228 nmi W of Agana, Guam.

The Tropical Storm warning for Guam was cancelled overnight. It just nicked Guam, causing some isolated power outages.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ITALY - Officials have put Rome on a state of alert for the Tiber breaking its banks after days of unrelenting rain and thunderstorms that the mayor likened to an "earthquake" striking the Italian capital. Rome's mayor has already declared a state of emergency after severe storms early on Thursday flooded underpasses, disrupted train and flight services and led to the death of one person. "We've been hit by a wave of exceptionally bad weather that has affected all of Italy. In Rome, it has been like an earthquake, with MORE RAIN IN ONE NIGHT THAN NORMALLY COMES DOWN IN ALL OF DECEMBER." Almost all of Italy has been suffering bad weather in recent days, with heavy snowfall blanketing the north and strong winds and downpours pelting the south.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
New Orleans, Louisiana got flurries and a mixture of snow and sleet. The last measurable snowfall in New Orleans was Christmas Day in 2004. There have ONLY SEVEN DAYS WITH MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE CITY IN 60 years.
The soggy weather in Georgia was part of a massive system that stretched from Louisiana to New England. It produced RARE snow flurries overnight in Houston and east Texas before moving east.

NEW YORK - Mohawk Valley weather has undergone a series of striking shifts lately, hitting a RECORD LOW of 3 degrees below zero on Dec. 8 before zooming up to as high as 55 degrees on Tuesday. “We had a 58-degree swing over 36 hours. Swings are not unusual, but even here, that’s BORDERLINE RIDICULOUS...We will be seeing ups and downs for a while."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SOUTH AFRICA - Deadly fires have broken out around South Africa's coastal city of Cape Town, destroying hundreds of homes and killing three people during a sweltering heat wave. Dry conditions in Cape Town's summer, characterised by often gale force winds, have sparked brushfires in the mountains as well as accidental home fires in the shacks that fill informal settlements around the city. Temperatures soared to 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) over the weekend, and by Monday a thick pall of smoke was cast over the city as nine fires raged.

AUSTRALIA - La Nina weather conditions, the pattern associated with above-average rain in Australia, may develop in coming months potentially helping to ease lingering drought in the continent. “Given current conditions and recent trends, the development of a La Nina during the southern summer cannot be ruled out.” Historically, it’s UNUSUAL for La Nina thresholds to be reached during the local summer, although it did occur in 1999- 2000. Wetter-than-normal weather may help ease Australia’s worst drought on record, which has reduced crop production in the world’s sixth-largest wheat exporter. Some characteristics of a La Nina are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. “Some computer models do, in fact, forecast this to occur, although the majority of climate model forecasts show neutral conditions, with a cooler than normal Pacific, until the end of the southern summer." La Nina refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and such events increase the chance of wetter conditions. It is the opposite of El Nino, the weather pattern linked to drought in Australia.

Thursday, December 11, 2008 -

Reveal not every secret you have to a friend,
for how can you tell but that friend may hereafter become an enemy.
And bring not all mischief you are able to upon an enemy,
for he may one day become your friend.
Saadi

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/10/08 -
5.9 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
12/9/08 -
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.6 PAKISTAN
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.6 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
6.0 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
6.9 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA

New research shows that the great Indian Ocean earthquake that struck off the Indonesian island of Sumatra on the day after Christmas in 2004 set off tremors nearly 9,000 miles away in the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California. In the last few years there has been a growing number of documented cases in which large earthquakes set off unfelt tremors in earthquake faults hundreds, sometimes even thousands, of miles away. "We found that an earthquake that happened halfway around the world could trigger a seismic signal in the San Andreas fault. It is a low-stress event and a new kind of seismic phenomenon. Previous research has shown that this phenomenon, called non-volcanic tremor, was produced in the San Andreas fault in 2002 by the Denali earthquake in Alaska, but seeing this new evidence of tremor triggered by an event as distant as the Sumatra earthquake is really exciting." The Indian Ocean earthquake on Dec. 26, 2004, was measured at magnitude 9.2 and generated tsunami waves that killed a quarter-million people. It was not known, however, that an earthquake of even that magnitude could set off non-volcanic tremor so far away. Signals corresponding with non-volcanic tremor at precisely the time that seismic waves from the Indian Ocean earthquake were passing the Parkfield area were recorded on a number of instruments as far as 125 miles apart. Scientists have pondered whether non-volcanic tremor is related to actual slippage within an earthquake fault or is caused by the flow of fluids below the Earth's surface. Recent research supports the idea that tremor is caused by fault slippage. "If the fault is slipping from tremor in one place, it means stress is building up elsewhere on the fault, and that could bring the other area a little closer to a big earthquake...If the fault is closer to failure, then even a small amount of added stress likely can produce tremor. If the fault is already at low stress, then even high-energy waves probably won't produce tremor." "Our single-biggest finding is that very small stress can trigger tremor."

VOLCANOES -
Research shows that volcanoes erupt up to four times more often after a large earthquake than they would without the seismic agitation. Earthquakes can set off volcanoes by shaking up molten rock like champagne in a bottle until they explode. The effects of an earthquake can be felt hundreds of miles from the epicenter and are powerful enough to wake dormant volcanoes. However, it can take so long for a surge of molten rock to build up enough pressure to cause an eruption that several months can elapse between the trigger and the volcanic explosion. The link between volcanoes and earthquakes has long been suspected, but the new research has provided the first statistical evidence. The pattern of eruptions over the past 150 years shows a noticeable increase for a year after large earthquakes. "This work is important because it shows that the risk of volcanic eruption increases dramatically following large earthquakes in parts of the world, such as Chile, affected by these phenomena."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - A relief operation is slowly taking shape in Papua New Guinea's New Ireland province to help thousands of people displaced by huge king tides that struck the island two days ago. Pockets of devastation can be found down the entire 280-kilometre stretch of New Ireland's only coastal road. Village homes built close to the water's edge were either destroyed or swept some 50 metres inland by the high tides. The pristine white sand is littered with coral and debris, while the normally bustling villages have been abandoned. Locals say it is THE WORST DESTRUCTION THEY HAVE SEEN IN 30 YEARS.
Huge storm surges that struck Papua New Guinea's island provinces and mainland overnight have washed away coastal villages, leaving thousands of people in need of shelter and water. One of the hardest hit areas was the coast of New Ireland Province about 600 kilometres north-east of Port Moresby. Huge waves have washed away 30 village settlements along a 200-kilometre stretch of coast. The onslaught lasted for six hours, creating "pools as deep as two metres, sending sediment and debris flooding into homes and businesses". One person is missing as three to five metre waves continue to swamp inland areas. "We need water, we need medicine, we need shelter - it's coming in, washing out everything like a small tsunami." There are also reports of similar damage in the province of East Sepik.
At least 13 houses have been completely destroyed and hundreds displaced, as giant waves crashed through Pityluh Island, about four kilometers northwest of Lorengau town in Manus. No casualties have yet been reported but authorities say immediate need now for displaced islanders are food, clean water and medicine. The giant waves struck in the early hours and crashed nine times in a series of four waves each, destroying the sea walls, running down the houses and splashed about 30 to 40 metres onto the shore. Most people have temporarily returned to the inner parts of the island for fear of a repetition of the incident. Similar incidents have been reported in other parts of the province, at least in five other island villages. About 15-20 thousand people have also been affected from such incidents as the island province is prone to king tides at this time of the year. The Health Radio Station at Lorengau hospital has been put on high alert for the next 48 hours to monitor calls of similar incidents in the province.
The high waves that slammed into much of Papua New Guinea’s coastline in its maritime provinces, destroying scores of homes, was not a “King Tide” as earlier reported. The PNG National Weather Service says that the severe sea swell activity was not the result of a “King Tide.” “PNG is currently in the midst of a La Nina (wet weather) phase, and the accumulation of high sea levels is typical during La Nina." There has been no seismic activity and no tsunami activity that could account for the current sea swell activity. The UNUSUALLY high seas were a result of a combination of abnormally high sea levels and tropical depressions. The first abnormally high sea level was located in the Solomon Sea just south of the New Britain coast and extending towards New Caledonian waters. The second abnormally high sea level was located in Guam waters just north of the Equator (which is also north of PNG’s Manus Province). “Secondly, two tropical depressions formed on either side of the Equator over the last 36 hours. The Guam depression caused a southeastward drift of accumulated sea level. The Solomon Sea depression caused a northward drift of the accumulated sea level which contributed to high sea swells." The Provincial Disaster Coordinators of Manus, East Sepik, West Sepik, Bougainville, Oro, East New Britain, and West New Britain. Oro, East New Britain, and West New Britain provinces reported feeling minor effects of sea swell activity but this did not result in any damage. However, damage was felt more in New Ireland and East Sepik. The Weather Service predicted that the current situation would persist for the next five days. People in the affected areas have been asked to remain on higher grounds and not to venture out to lowland areas or out to open sea until further notices.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression TWENTYSEVEN was 47 nmi S of Agana, Guam.

GUAM - The National Weather Service says resident should prepare for the possibility of tropical storm conditions, that means damaging winds of between 39 and 74 miles an hour. A tropical depression is positioned about 235 miles east-southeast of Guam as of 6 a.m. Thursday and could become a tropical storm this between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. tonight.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OREGON - Fog is expected to sock in Southern Oregon — again — this week. And it likely won't lift until a cold snap arrives Friday, possibly delivering snow as low as 2,000 feet. The National Weather Service issued an air stagnation advisory Monday, noting that building high pressure was expected to cause an inversion that would linger through the week. The still air trapped in the valleys of Southern Oregon by this inversion could collect small particles of smoke and other pollution. The region has seen "an UNUSUAL amount of high pressure" in late November and so far into December. That has resulted in little precipitation and numerous inversions. The persistent high pressure ridge should drift west later this week, clearing the way for cooler, wetter weather that will bring an end to the stagnant air.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008 -

Another day with little to report - mostly quakes and cold.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Eric Hoffer

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/8/08 -
6.4 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.4 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.6 NEPAL
5.8 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
ESTONIA - The famed Witch’s Well of Tuhala erupted last week for the first time in three years, exhaling puffs of vapor and attracting pilgrims from all over Estonia. The settlement of Tuhala, believed to be 3,000 years old, sits on Estonia’s largest field of porous karst, where 15 underground rivers flow through a maze of caverns, audible but unseen by human inhabitants. One result is sinkholes large enough to swallow horses — the Horse’s Hole, as it is known, appeared in 1978. Streams appear and disappear like phantoms. The most famous oddity is the Witch’s Well. Geologists believe that after flooding rains, underground water pressure builds to the point that water shoots up out of the ground, usually for a few days. Each time it happens, people travel great distances to see it. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
UNITED KINGDOM - Stark pictures of flooding were taken from a government-backed online game, designed to show users how flooding could hit parts of the UK without effective flood management and the destruction that could ensue. The Floodsim.com game puts the player in charge of flood policy decisions for the UK and gives them the opportunity to take a range of measures to protect cities and their residents, from providing sandbags to installing flood barriers. As the game progresses, it then reveals what happens when serious flooding strikes. The computer simulation depicts various British cities, including Glasgow, London, Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 122 MPH Wind Gust and RECORD-BREAKING COLD - temperatures bottomed out at 25.2 degrees below zero Monday. This broke the daily record low for December 8, which was previously 24 below set back in 2002. This temperature becomes even more impressive when you consider that through all of last winter, the lowest temperature recorded was 26 below. More high winds are on the way for the next few days. Mount Washington is the home of "The World's Worst Weather." (photos)

CALIFORNIA - RARE 50-YEAR ARCTIC BLAST sets sights on Southern California. With a week away, and a sure sign of things to come, OWSweather.com is making preparations on the server to handle the traffic from this next event. UJEAS is in line with the majority if not all the other models in keeping a NEAR HISTORICAL ARCTIC AIR MASS into the Southern California region. With a warm November, Southern California is finally ready for cold storms to make their way in. Resort level snow will be likely next week, and in pretty hefty amounts if things stay on track. OWSweather.com meteorologists predict a 50 year event. "We are in a pre-1950 type pattern. We know we are due for a winter storm sometime this year. The type we may be dealing with will be ranked up there with the known years before 1950, which set record low daytime temperatures into the forecast region. With this, may come low elevation snow." "Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week. With those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere. Our answer of the exact track will become more clear this week. All residents in the mountain communities should prepare this week for very cold, winter weather, with snow." Indications are a second, colder storm could hit near the 18th-22nd time-frame. The details on that will have to be sorted out.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
AUSTRALIA - UNUSUAL weather conditions have again impacted the southern agricultural districts of Western Australia, devastating crops and pasture paddocks alike. For many producers this weather pattern produces ideal conditions for blow flies. The wet and cold conditions in many areas have also had a negative effect on the weight and condition of sheep. Many producers have found that a lack of access to stubbles, coupled with the un-seasonal weather conditions has impacted negatively on lamb growth, weight and condition gains.

Monday, December 8, 2008 -

Only the educated are free.
Epictetus

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/7/08 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.4 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 SEA OF OKHOTSK
5.5 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

The threat of a cyclone hitting Sri Lanka has now subsided with the atmosphere turning into a low pressure zone.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - A total of 68 water catchment areas in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya are categorised as critical and can cause a landslide at any time. A massive landslide on the outskirts of Malaysia's largest city on Saturday killed four people and left one other person missing.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FLORIDA - Manatees driven to South Florida by cold weather - Driven south by a few weeks of cold weather, an UNUSUAL number of manatees has concentrated in South Florida's waterways. An aerial survey this week counted 339 manatees in central and southern Broward, many more than in recent years.

WEATHER AND HISTORY -
Two recent disasters that affected history - In April 1815, Mount Tambora in Indonesia had exploded so violently that a third of it vanished in rocks and dust. Ash and sulphuric acid were blasted 43km (27 miles) into the stratosphere, then spread around the globe, hanging as a veil over the sky and blocking out sunlight for years. As a result, global temperatures dropped so drastically that, in the northern hemisphere, the year after was known as “the year without a summer”. In Britain the summer of 1816 was wet, cold and wretched. The freak summer led to the creation of Frankenstein and the invention of the bicycle. The foul weather rotted crops and led to shortages of food. Farmworkers were left unemployed, grain prices soared and mobs went on the rampage for food. Across Europe there was desolation. Starving Germans baked straw and sawdust into loaves of “bread”, and in Switzerland people ate moss in desperation. At least 200,000 people died from famine in Europe, and the weather was also blamed for a typhus epidemic from 1816 to 1819 that killed millions more. Thousands of people emigrated to the US, only to find conditions there just as bad - the northeast suffered snow in June and frosts in July that ruined harvests and, in turn, drove a mass migration of farmers westwards across the prairies. In India, the monsoon failed and the resulting famine triggered the world's first cholera pandemic. Cold weather killed trees, rice crops and water buffalo herds in northern China and disrupted the monsoon season there as well.
In the bleak winter of 1947, Britain nearly starved. A catalogue of weather calamities precipitated a national crisis and changed Britain and the rest of Europe for decades afterwards. The country was gripped in an Arctic freeze that lasted for two months, with snow whipped into monstrous drifts that buried roads and railways. It became the coldest February ever recorded - and there was virtually no sunshine for almost the whole month. Television was closed down, radio output reduced, newspapers cut in size and magazines ordered to stop publishing. March turned out even worse than February. March 5 brought the worst blizzard of the 20th century. Eventually, on March 10, a sustained thaw set in - and triggered another spectacular disaster. After weeks of deep frost, the ground was so hard that the melting snow ran off into raging torrents of floodwater and, to make things worse, a huge storm dropped heavy rain. Indeed, it was the wettest March on record in England and Wales. The winter of 1947 was a milestone in the decline of Britain as a world superpower. The nation could hardly feed its own population, let alone the starving millions for which it was responsible in Germany, where the winter was even more savage. The populations of the bombed-out cities there were reduced to an almost Stone-Age existence of scavenging for food and fuel to survive. America looked to Britain as a bulwark against the threat of communism in Europe. Instead it saw a nation on its knees. It was then that the US administration realised that it would have to save Europe single-handedly. As a result, the US proposed a more active role in the defence of Western Europe and used the Marshall Plan to boost the recovery of the European economies with billions of dollars of aid. The Marshall Plan kick-started Germany's great postwar industrial revival - and brought Western Europe together in an economic co-operation that eventually became the Common Market.

HEALTH THREATS -
Contaminated Irish pig meat may have been exported to up to 25 countries, Ireland's chief vet said, as shops in Ireland and abroad cleared out pork products amid fears of a cancer link. Ireland is a major exporter of pork, with Britain by far the biggest market followed by Germany, France, Russia and Japan. Other major export destinations include Hong Kong, China and the Netherlands. The Food Safety Authority said it was almost certain that the source of the contamination was industrial oil which mistakenly found its way into pig feed made at an Irish factory.

Waterborne disease risk on the rise in Great Lakes region in US - A study has determined that an anticipated increased incidence of climate-related extreme rainfall events in the Great Lakes region in the US may raise the public health risk for the 40 million people who depend on the lakes for their drinking water. A trend toward extreme weather such as the monsoon-like rainfall events that occurred in many parts of the region this past spring is likely to aggravate the risk for outbreaks of waterborne disease in the Great Lakes region. “If weather extremes do intensify, as these findings suggest, our health will be at greater risk.” A primary threat to human health are the extreme precipitation events that overwhelm the combined urban storm water and sewage systems such as those in Milwaukee and Chicago, resulting in millions of gallons of raw sewage being diverted to Lake Michigan. Adding to the risk throughout the region is the growing concentration of livestock operations where heavy rainfall can wash large amounts of animal waste into the rivers and streams that drain into the Great Lakes.

Sunday, December 7, 2008 -

"Business! Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business;
charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were all my business.
The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!"
The ghost of Jacob Marley

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/06/08 -
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 TONGA
6.1 BANDA SEA
5.0 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
12/05/08 -
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
Montserrat's volcano fired glowing red rocks and towers of gray ash into the sky early Friday for the fourth time this week.

Those living near volcanoes at risk for acute bronchitis - “We found that the children living near this active volcano emitting sulfurous air pollution were about 6.5 times more likely to suffer from acute bronchitis."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - Six fishermen killed as high waves hit Cilacap sea - At least six fishermen in Cilacap, Central Java, have been killed by the high waves rolling through the seas off the regency's south coast during the past week. On Thursday, high waves swept away three fishermen who were fishing in the sea. Only one survived. The body of one was retrieved and the third is still missing. Last week, four fishermen were killed when their boat was rolled by high waves in the same waters. "High waves have been hitting the South Sea. Many fishermen are deciding not to sail for the time being." Most of the 35,000 fishermen in Cilacap have low incomes and depend greatly on fishing to support their families. The high waves are so dangerous that fishermen face the very real risk of death. On average 10 fishermen from the regency die each year while fishing at sea, mostly during the high-wave season in December-January.

HAWAII - The big surf hitting the islands prompted Big Island officials to close two beaches. National Weather Service issued a high surf warning for Friday, predicting 20- to 25-foot waves on Oahu's north and west shores. Forecasters placed the high surf warning for north and west shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, north-facing shores of Maui, and for west-facing shores of the Big Island. "It's always an exciting time of the year, you know, the big wave season." (video)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 07B was 913 nmi SE of Bombay, India.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA's driest state has been forced to purchase water for the first time to ensure adequate supplies in the midst of a drought. The South Australian Government says its decision to start buying water for critical human needs is a sign of how dire the water crisis has become. It's bought 30 billion litres of water from supplies shared by Victoria and New South Wales at a cost of $14 million. The drought has not broken in any way shape or form. The River Murray continues to be in a very dire situation. The Lower Lakes here in South Australia; Lakes Alexandrina and Lake Albert continue to drop in levels. For the first time the state has had to buy water to ensure its cities and towns won't run dry from July next year. "We really are running the River Murray system on its last legs. We have a national crisis that needs very, very urgent action and one of the things that cities need to do is to secure supplies...if we have another dry year, like we've had before, then the bottom of the river is going to have a massive salinity problem."

TEXAS - The parched area between Austin and New Braunfels has reached an "exceptional" level — the most severe drought category. Forecasters said there's little prospect for rain in the area, meaning nearby communities probably will succumb to exceptional drought levels. The area has had less than half the usual rain this year and is headed into the driest time of the year. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects below-normal rainfall through at least February. Extremely dry conditions and high fuel loads are setting up wildfire situations across Texas.

The Climate Crisis and the Adaption Myth - U.S. municipalities and other organizations most at risk of sustaining damage from climate change are not adapting enough to counteract the potential dangers of higher global temperatures. "Despite a half century of climate change that has already significantly affected temperature and precipitation patterns and has already had widespread ecological and hydrological impacts, and despite a near certainty that the United States will experience at least as much climate change in the coming decades just as a result of current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, little adaptation has occurred." New York City's flood maps are based on historical data and not on climate change modeling data. Increases in sea levels and storm surges associated with stronger storms could inundate JFK Airport and lower Manhattan, including the subway entrances and tunnels into Manhattan. In Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas, where water supply is critical, climate change has not been factored into state agencies’ current water management plans. Municipal public health agencies in Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia, among others, have not factored climate change into plans for confronting public health risks, despite the belief that climate change will increase the incidence and severity of vector-borne diseases and respiratory illnesses. (the full report)
Even though parts of the USA have been UNUSUALLY COLD for the past couple of weeks, Nordic ski events in the Czech Republic had to be canceled this week due to the UNUSUAL WARMTH and lack of snow.

TURKEY - It must have felt more like summer than the threshold of winter over the western Black Sea shore of Turkey on Thursday. The high temperature was a remarkable 81 degrees F (27+ degrees C) at both Zonguldak and Inebolu. The would be nearly 30 degrees F (15 degrees C) above normal in early December. The warmth stemmed from southerly wind flow, with origin over Africa, that got a boost locally from down-slope warming off the western Anatolian Highland.

Most natural disasters today are linked to climate change, says the UN emergency relief coordinator. From 1988 through 2007, over 75 percent of all disaster events were climate-related and accounted for 45 percent of deaths and 80 percent of the economic losses caused by natural hazards. The most vulnerable are impoverished people living in risk-prone hotspot countries, where the risks from extreme climatic events overlap with human vulnerability. "Any credible vision of the future must recognize that humanitarian needs are increasing and that climate change is the main driver. We are already seeing its effects, in terms of the numbers of people affected and in the rising cost of response." In the last 20 years, the number of recorded disasters has doubled from about 200 to more than 400 per year. Disasters caused by floods are more frequent - up from about 50 in 1985 to more than 200 in 2005 - and floods damage larger areas than they did 20 years ago. Development efforts in the Pacific Island Countries have been constrained by disasters. As a result, these countries appear to be in a "constant mode of recovery." "Climate projections for the Pacific island countries are bleak and indicate reduced food security, especially for households."

HEALTH THREATS -
The UN Children's Fund in Zimbabwe expects 60,000 cholera cases in coming weeks, four times current official estimates.

All pork products made in the Irish Republic since September have been recalled over fears they are contaminated with a toxic substance. The action was taken after dioxins were found in slaughtered pigs thought to have eaten contaminated feed. Tests showed some pork products contained up to 200 times more dioxins than the recognised safety limit.

Friday, December 5, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters."
Jean-Paul Kauffmann

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/4/08 -
5.1 CELEBES SEA
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Residents in central Indonesia have been told to stay away from the crater of Mount Karangetang volcano that has been spewing hot lava and clouds of ash high into the air for days. As of Thursday, no evacuations have been ordered even though many people live along Mount Karangetang's volatile slopes. The volcano has been spilling lava and shooting ash as high as 1,300 feet (400 meters), prompting authorities to raise its alert to the second-highest level. The volcano is located 1,400 miles (2,300 kilometers) northeast of Jakarta on Siau island.

HAWAII - A slow-moving tongue of molten rock that recently broke off from the main flow of lava on the Big Island is inching its way closer to the boundary of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and, not far from there, the Pacific Ocean. The swath of lava is just west of the main flow that has for years run toward what is called the Waikupanaha ocean entry on the island's southeast side. The new flow is likely to breach the national park boundary later this week. "It's not a terribly threatening flow." National Park Service officials are gearing up for the flow to cross onto federal land but are hesitant to predict when or whether it will crawl another mile to reach the ocean. "It's a dynamic and unpredictable phenomenon," which also could stop and crust over or turn in another direction. On Monday, Geological Survey volcanologists walked along the perimeter of the flow with hand-held global positioning system devices to measure its location. It had moved several hundred feet in three directions since the previous measurement 10 days before. The swath measured a mile or more across. No lava has reached national park land since last year. The land the flow is covering now as it approaches the park border is part of the mostly abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision. Only one resident continues to stay in the subdivision.

MONTSERRAT - Soufriere Hills volcano erupts, ignites fires in ex-capital. The volcano on the tiny Caribbean island of Montserrat has burst into action, hurling hot rocks that set buildings ablaze in the island's abandoned capital. No one was injured or evacuated. The Soufriere Hills volcano spewed material more than half a mile (1 kilometer) into the air. Buildings burned for several hours in Plymouth, the capital city that was abandoned when volcano erupted in 1997 and killed 19 people. The explosion was smaller than when the volcano's dome partially collapsed in late July and spewed ash some 40,000 feet (12 kilometers) into the air.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 07B was 694 nmi SW of Rangoon, Burma.

Another cyclone is heading towards Sri Lanka - Sri Lanka Meteorological Department Thursday warned of severe weather as a depression has occurred at the center of the Bay of Bengal at 6:00am in the seas 800 km off the East coast and could result a cyclone. "It might pass through Sri Lanka coming days." According to the department sources the cyclone will affect the eastern coastline of the country. The Meteorological Department expects showers and gusting winds over the Northern and Eastern areas for the next few days. The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1430 hours of Indian Standard Time about 900 km east-southeast of Trincomalee. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. A cyclone blew through the Northern part of Sri Lanka last week and flooded most areas severely.

Thursday, December 4, 2008 -

No update yesterday.

America believes in education: the average professor earns more money in a year
than a professional athlete earns in a whole week.
Evan Esar

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/3/08 -
5.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
12/2/08 -
5.0 VANUATU
5.8 MAUG ISLANDS REG, N. MARIANA IS.
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 TAIWAN

CALIFORNIA - An earthquake “swarm” that’s been rattling portions of San Bernardino and Inyo counties won’t settle down. It’s been a robust sequence with fairly large events in the magnitude four range. The series began November 23rd just north of Trona. “It could continue for days or even weeks and it could stop within the next couple of hours.” There has been no reported damage in the immediate area of the epicenters along the Ash Hill Fault. That’s part of the more extensive Panamint Valley Fault System on the south edge of Death Valley. (map)

INDONESIA - An area off Indonesia's Sumatra island that has been the source of disastrous earthquakes still carries a lot of pent-up pressure that could result in a strong quake. Measurements of the quake zone around the Mentawai islands off Sumatra's west coast show it has not moved as much as in the past, suggesting the potential for a large "megathrust" remains. Indonesia is part of a belt of intense seismic activity known as the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and was the site of a huge earthquake in December 2004. It triggered a devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean that killed more than 230,000 people in the region. There have been many smaller quakes in the area and another large one of 8.4 magnitude, followed by a 7.9 event, which killed more than 20 people in 2007. Scientists have been watching the area, using satellites to measure ground movements and also seeking geological evidence of what has happened there in the past. They are concerned because even more monstrous quakes occurred in 1833. They found the 2007 quakes released only some of the pent-up movement and pressure that is occurring as one tectonic plate rubs against another there. "Two salient questions are why the 2007 sequence did not duplicate the 1833 event and why it released only about 25 percent of the deficit of moment that had accumulated since 1833." The Sunda megathrust is a tectonic plate boundary near the coast of Sumatra, where a patchwork of creeping and locked areas of crust rub up against one another. Because they are rough, slips and slides occur in bursts that shake the surface. The researchers say their measurements suggest another big slip could occur.

VOLCANOES -
Scientists discuss replicating volcano’s effect to cool climate - Scientists discussed the merits and demerits of pumping sulfur into the Earth’s atmosphere as a temporary “fix” to global warming at a forum hosted in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 21. The idea is to artificially re-create the effects of volcanic eruptions to temporarily cool the planet. "Volcanic eruptions cool the climate for up to a couple of years by injecting precursors to sulfate aerosol particles into the stratosphere, which has the effect of temporarily blocking incoming sunlight.” But geo-engineering of this type has the potential to create more problems than it solves. Depletion of the ozone layer, a reduction in rainfall, and an unknown impact on plant life are some of the undesirable potential side effects of geo-engineering. Injecting sulfur into the atmosphere would also cost taxpayers from $10 to $100 billion dollars a year. Society may get to the point where it has no choice but to use an emergency measure like sulfur injections to cool global temperatures. "This problem is coming at us faster and larger than we thought. We may find ourselves backed against a wall and be forced to look at these temporary solutions in a more serious way.”

RUSSIA - Residents of the Kamchatka region have been watching a local volcano erupt for almost a week. The stream of lava coming from Kluchevskaya Sopka has reached over one kilometre. Geologists say it poses no danger to the nearby village, as a glacier on top of the volcano is preventing the lava flow from moving towards the settlement. Kluchevskaya Sopka is the highest active volcano in Eurasia.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 07B was 646 nmi W of George Town, Malaysia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FLORIDA just passed through THE SECOND COLDEST NOVEMBER IN 30 YEARS, according to average daily temperatures recorded at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. The average daily temperature this November, 64.77 degrees, was eclipsed only by 1991's 64.37 degrees. But that doesn't capture the full flavor of November's cool: Eleven days with a low temperature below 50 degrees, more than any November in 30 years. Two days with a low below 40, THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1979. Nine days with an average temperature below 60. In the past 30 years, only November 1991 had more days - 10 - with an average temperature under the 60-degree mark. The immediate cause is a dip in the jet stream - cold air from Canada that has sunk into Florida. It is UNUSUAL for the jet stream to dip so far south this time of year, and it is to blame for the snow as far south as Tennessee. It made November in Southwest Florida feel like January. "The UNUSUAL thing is how persistent it is. We usually see these cold snaps," then it warms back to normal. This fall, "the trough is just locked in on the Eastern Seaboard."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Greenhouse gases worsen ocean noise by raising acidity levels and causing sound to travel farther, making it ever harder for marine mammals to communicate.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008 -

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday
didn't happen today.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
12/1/08 -
5.5 TONGA REGION
5.0 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
11/30/08 -
5.0 MAUG ISLANDS REG., NORTHERN MARIANA ISL
5.5 PAGAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Sunday marked the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, one that saw an above-average number of hurricanes. One of those caused so much damage that it could lead to the creation of a new scale for hurricane severity. There were 16 named tropical storms this year, including eight hurricanes — five of which were classified as so-called “major hurricanes” of Category 3 or higher. An average year experiences only 11 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes — two of those major. It was the 10th season with above-average storm activity during the last 14 years. One hurricane that hit the United States was not labeled a “major hurricane,” because it was a Category 2, yet it caused a storm surge that inflicted so much damage, the storm now ranks third behind Hurricanes Katrina and Andrew on the list of costliest tropical storms in U.S. history. That was Hurricane Ike, which slammed Galveston, Texas, on September 13 with a storm surge of 12 feet, flooding much of the area and causing 82 deaths in the U.S. and $27 billion in damages. Now scientists are debating whether to add a second method of labeling a tropical storm’s severity and possible impact. The current way of labeling hurricanes is to use the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranks a hurricane as a Category 1 through 5 storm, based on its highest sustained wind speed. However a hurricane’s storm surge is what threatens coastal areas most — and the storm surge is related to how large the hurricane is, not how fast its winds are. Ike was 600 miles wide at one point — the most massive Atlantic hurricane ever. “For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).”

Flying jets in circles at supersonic speed inside a hurricane could dissipate its destructive force, a patent application claims.

PHILIPPINES - One more tropical cyclone is expected to enter the country before the end of the year, threatening the provinces in the northeastern Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol regions. At least one tropical cyclone usually enters the country in December. So far, a total of 20 tropical cyclones have visited the Philippines this year.

INDIA - Two different weather models run by the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre retained the outlook for moderate cyclone threat for India’s southeast coast around December 5. While the Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggested the north Tamil Nadu coast around Chennai for the landfall, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) rooted for a place further to the south (Karaikal-Nagapattinam belt). A remnant circulation from erstwhile cyclone Nisha lingered over the east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea off the Karnataka-Konkan-Goa coasts on Sunday commandeering a steady stream of moisture across the peninsula.

SRI LANKA - Cyclone Nisha brought the HEAVIEST RAINS IN DECADES to the Island north and crippled people's lives many ways. Jaffna recorded THE HIGHEST RAINFALL SINCE 1918, with 520.1 millimetres of rain last week, with Wednesday’s reading of 389.8 millimetres being the highest in nine decades. The heavy rains during the past few days claimed 30 lives with many missing still not accounted for yet. In the hardest hit Jaffna district, more than 330,000 people were affected and over 40,000 houses were damaged, including 11,000 listed as destroyed. The cyclonic winds up to 80km/hr in the Jaffna Peninsula caused widespread flooding. There has been no electricity since 25 November at 8pm when Cyclone Nisha hit northern Sri Lanka. The sea level increased overnight and in some areas, the situation has been adversely affected by the blocking of drainage canals. Causeways have been flooded and damaged, isolating the islands off the main Peninsula. (photos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ITALY - Venice has suffered ITS WORST FLOODING IN 22 YEARS, with the "acqua alta" (high water) reaching a depth of more than 1.5m deep before beginning to recede. A change in the direction of the wind helped the water start backing down from a high of 1.56m. Authorities had warned that the sea lapping at the lagoon city threatened to rise to 1.60m, a 30-year high mark, and warned residents and tourists to stay indoors. Another surge was expected in the early hours of Tuesday local time. Experts said the surge in the sea level was caused by a combination of persistently high southerly winds and heavy rain and snowfall in northern Italy over the past few days.

BRAZIL - The death toll from historic floods in southern Brazil continued to creep upward Monday, with 112 reported dead.

SOUTH AFRICA - Another freak storm devastated a KwaZulu-Natal settlement at the weekend, leaving six people, including a nine-month-old infant, dead and more than 50 injured. The second killer storm to hit the province in one month struck the Amanzimtoti, kwaMakhutha and Umbumbulu areas south of Durban on Saturday evening, displacing about 400 families. “It was a huge storm, it swept through the area in less than three minutes, and in that period most houses were blown down.” “We have lost more lives at a time when we had not recovered from the Molweni disaster.” The recurring freak storms should serve as a wake-up call that “all of us should do everything we can to address the situation of climate change”.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GEORGIA - this November was ONE OF THE COLDEST AND WETTEST IN AUGUSTA HISTORY.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Can a landslide spontaneously combust, causing wildfires? It can, if it contains the right kind of rock. In August 2004, fire crews attending a wildfire near Santa Barbara, California, traced the source of the blaze to a recent landslide, but they had no idea how the fire got started. The temperature of the rocks in the landslide must have reached just over 300 °C – hot enough to start a fire. By measuring the temperature and composition of the air from boreholes, they were able to rule out the possibility of a geological ignition from volcanic activity or seepage of flammable natural gas, so it appears that a chemical reaction in the rocks must have been responsible. They believe that the landslide exposed a mineral called pyrite to the air, causing an oxidation reaction that heated a nearby seam of low-grade coal to the temperatures they inferred. Landslide fires may be more common than we realise. "There have been a few along the UK's Dorset coast in the last few hundred years, and there are records of a huge fire in the Dead Sea area, dating from King Solomon's time, which may have started this way."

Climate juggernaut 'on the horizon - War, hunger, poverty and sickness will stalk humanity if the world fails to tackle climate change. "Humankind in its activity just reached the limits of the closed system of our planet Earth. Further expansion in the same style will generate global threats of really great intensity - huge droughts and floods, cyclones with increasingly more destructive power, pandemics of tropical disease, dramatic decline of biodiversity, increasing ocean levels. All these can cause social and even armed conflict and migration of people at an unprecedented scale." "The impacts of climate change, if there is inaction, can be extremely serious. The number of people living in severely stressed river basins is projected to rise from 1.4-1.6 billion in 1995 to 4.3-6.9 billion in 2050. That's almost the majority of humanity." The global recession is "nothing compared to the trillions of dollars that climate change will cost us".

Rare mineral can track ancient climates, and it foretells a major meltdown - "The earth will be a very different place in the next hundred years or so, and many species will adapt to it and many won't. Humans are supremely good at adapting. But, rich countries will adapt much better than poor countries and other species will have far more trouble coping with environmental change. There are going to be challenges we can't even imagine right now." "Right now, we're on a predictable pace. But there will likely be tipping points, unexpected events that could really change things, so all of a sudden we may get changes in ocean circulation that we never would have predicted, or the tundra may melt. Some unexpected event is going to occur that's going to be more dramatic than the progressive changes that occurred over the last 100 years."

Sunday, November 30, 2008 -

“There is no limit to what you can achieve if you don’t mind who gets the credit.” -Unknown

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/29/08 -
5.0 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.7 FIJI REGION
11/28/08 -
6.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.0 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA REGION
11/27/08 -
5.9 VANUATU
5.2 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 SOUTHERN PERU
11/26/08 -
5.0 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
5.4 VANUATU

CALIFORNIA - Earthquake series continue across California. Four small earthquakes struck Central and Southern California early Saturday, but there were no reports of damage or injuries. A magnitude-4.1 quake hit the Ridgecrest area of Kern County shortly before 1:15 p.m. The same area had a 3.2-magnitude quake at 3am. Two earthquakes also struck the Salinas Valley along the Central Coast. A magnitude-3.2 quake hit just before 5 Saturday morning and a second quake of the same magnitude followed two minutes later. The quakes were centered near the town of Aromas and about 35 miles from San Jose. A 3.0-magnitude quake struck the same area at about 10:30 Friday night. The latest tumblor came after an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 struck off California's northern coast about 133 miles west of Eureka Thursday.

ARKANSAS - A series of small earthquakes that rattled central Arkansas in the last weeks could be the sign of something much bigger to come. Five earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 2.2 to 2.7 have hit central Arkansas this month. While hundreds of earthquakes occur each year, including several in Arkansas, the location of the recent ones give pause. Arkansas quakes generally occur in the state's northeast corner, part of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, where three temblors with magnitudes of around 8 struck during the winter of 1812 and smaller ones continue today. But central Arkansas does not have any seismic history. "It is ABNORMAL. It is significant. We need to carefully watch this activity." By this weekend, seismologists hope to install three measurement devices to gather data about future temblors in the area. That information could show whether the rumbles come from heat-related geological changes or from an undiscovered fault — which could mean a risk of substantial earthquakes in the future. One possible culprit could be a hydrothermal quake, caused by extremely hot fluid pushing into rocks under the surface. The hot fluid percolates into the cracks of the rocks and causes movement. That matches the geologic history of the area. Central Arkansas is home to Hot Springs. The springs have 143-degree waters rushing to the surface continuously. If that's the case, the earthquakes likely wouldn't pose a drastic danger to the area. At their strongest, such quakes reach only a magnitude of 5.
A 6th small earthquake struck south-central Arkansas Tuesday morning. The quake registered as a magnitude 2.2. Its epicenter was about 5 miles north of Malvern and about 34 miles southwest of Little Rock. On Saturday evening a 2.3 temblor hit central Arkansas about six miles northeast of Hot Springs Village. Another 2.3 quake struck the area on Sunday. There was also a 2.6 earthquake on Nov. 21 about 13 miles northeast of Hot Springs Village, a Nov. 10 temblor registering 2.0 three miles northeast of Rockport, and an earlier Nov. 2 earthquake in that area registering 2.7.

JAPAN - Tokyo has a 70 per cent chance of being hit by a major quake in the next few decades.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - Three men drowned Thursday after being swept to sea by a rogue wave while watching the surf from a rocky outcropping along California's Central Coast. The three were standing with two friends at the water's edge on the landmark Mugu Rock, taking photographs of the ocean about 1:50 p.m. Thursday when they became nervous. "They saw that the waves were strong, and they realized that it was dangerous, so they attempted to make their way back from the water lines." Two survivors managed to haul themselves out of the water and shout for help. Earlier this year, high waves swept a 16-year-old boy off the rock as he was fishing with relatives. Strong currents make it very difficult for people to swim to safety if they fall on the treacherous rocks. A storm had moved through the area a day earlier, but ocean conditions were fairly normal Thursday afternoon. Waves along the Central Coast were about 3 to 4 feet - hardly dangerous conditions.
Weather forecasters issued a special caution Friday about heavy surf along the Northern California. The high surf should have hit Saturday afternoon and persist through today, reaching about 12 feet with occasional rogue waves that could be twice that. "That’s not “super big." They aren’t large enough to warrant a high surf advisory (15 feet) or a warning (18 feet). “The more important thing is that the periods between the waves are excessively long so what that does is just increase the power of the wave. There’s a tremendous amount of energy in the wave when it crashes on the beach.”

HAWAII - The National Weather Service saia surf could rise to between 22 and 28 feet on the North Shore Saturday with some 30-foot waves hitting the outer reefs. Surf along west-facing shores will grow to 10 to 20 feet. While common in size for the winter season, the waves still present dangerous conditions. A storm about 1,700 miles north of the islands caused the extra-large waves. Two other storms could send swells to Hawaii next week. The second will peak on Tuesday, matching Saturday's heights. The third, expected on Thursday, could be even bigger.

MALAYSIA - Two secondary school students drowned while swimming in the sea off Air Papan beach. Two survived when waves swept them back to shore. "Suddenly, the tide rose and swept us further out to sea". Meanwhile, in Jertih, three men were feared drowned when strong waves capsized their boat while they were heading towards Pulau Perhentian. "The bad weather and the huge waves are making it difficult for search and rescue operations."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Cyclone Nisha has left a trail of death and destruction with 120 dead amid heavy rain over the last week in Tamil Nadu, India. A large area of Chennai is inundated in water. The torrential rains have destroyed standing crops in over 550,000 hectares of land. 600,000 farmers have been hit hard by the calamity. About one million people have been affected by the havoc caused by torrential rains. 2,100 relief camps have been set up across the State to help the affected. Rains have reportedly damaged roads across the State. A 7,700 km of area comprising State highways and National highways has been affected. Rail services across the state have remained paralyzed. The meteorological department in Chennai has forecast isolated heavy rain across coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry for the next 24 hours.
Cyclone Nisha which crossed the coastal Tamilnadu Thursday is still having its effect, lashing Chennai continuously. Unending rain for 48 hours has thrown normal life out of gear across costal Tamilnadu. Several areas, including the city's posh localities are water-logged and the authorities have had to rush in boats to shift people to safer places. Several water-logged areas in the city do not have access to essential services, such as milk and electricity. Power supply and telephone lines too are badly disrupted.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - The number of deaths following flooding and landslides in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina has risen to 97, with 19 people missing. Almost 80,000 people have had to move from their homes. Six cities in the region remain cut off and the authorities say blocked roads have made it difficult to distribute aid in many areas. Landslides have been blamed for most of the deaths, and many homes were either swept away or suffered severe damage. (photo / map)
MONTHS OF RECORD-BREAKING RAIN intensified last weekend, destroying transportation routes, isolating eight cities, and submerging city streets waist-high.

AUSTRALIA - People have been rescued from trees, cars and causeways after floodwaters cut Tamowrth, in northern New South Wales, in two. The Peel River peaked at almost 6m after more than 164mm of rain deluged the area over the past 24 hours, causing widespread flash flooding. "150mm of rain over the last 24 hours in an area that's been drought stricken for some time, it's the dual-edged sword that rural Australia is so used to."

NEVADA - Anyone in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving Day witnessed something few have ever seen on the holiday. It rained. The National Weather Service said 0.14 inches of rain fell at McCarran International Airport on Thursday. SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT BEGINNING IN 1937, THE AIRPORT HAS NEVER RECORDED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THANKSGIVING DAY - that is, until this year. The rain amount also BROKE A RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 27, set in 1981, when one-hundredth of an inch of rain fell in the city. It was the second day of record-breaking rainfall - the 0.32 of an inch that fell Wednesday SET A RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 26. Las Vegas officially has recorded 1.49 inches of rain this year, with 0.46 inches of that falling Wednesday and Thursday.

CALIFORNIA - Lindbergh Field in San Diego reported RECORD RAINFALL AGIAN Thursday. 1.26 inches had fallen by noon. If the Weather Service accepts the report, it would break the record for rainfall at the airport on this date, which was .68 inches in 1931. On Wednesday, Lindbergh Field reported 1.05 inches, which broke a record for rainfall on that date set in 1909.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
PHILIPPINES - Indigenous farming communities have fit their lifestyle, traditions and culture to the rice they plant, and they have adjusted their rice cycles, and even some of their rituals, so that they continue to produce ample food in spite of problems such as changing weather patterns. The Department of Agriculture started detecting the changes when they saw a shift in the farming cycle early this year. The planting season in the “green zones (agricultural areas where rain is abundant)” of the region has either moved a month earlier or a month later, depending on the crops. The indigenous peoples “have proven sustainable environmental practices” all over the world and have addressed global warming far earlier than most nations because they have been susceptible to floods and disasters caused by climate change. The Cordillerans have nurtured “hunger crops” such as sweet potatoes, while tending to greenhouses that protect crops from unusual weather. They have made revisions in their schedule of rituals to coincide with the planting cycle. And Cordillerans have many rituals related to planting and harvesting.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008 -

There will be no updates on Thursday and Friday.

If you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.
Moshe Dayan

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/25/08 -
5.1 MOZAMBIQUE
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.4 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 VANUATU
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone NISHA was 655 nmi SE of Bombay, India.

NISHA - The tropical cyclone passed over northern Sri Lanka and is heading toward India with heavy rains and winds of 83 kilometers (52 miles) per hour. The storm was moving north-northwest at 7.4 kph with winds gusting to 102 kph. The cyclone is forecast to turn west and cross the southern coast of India in the vicinity of the town of Atirampattinam before 5:30 p.m. local time today.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - The Brazilian government said 1.5 million people had been affected by the extreme weather, with eight towns completely cut off by flood waters. Crumbling hillsides and rivers of mud caused by torrential rain have swept at least 84 people to their deaths, with the toll likely to climb higher. In the worst-hit state of Santa Catarina, rescuers used helicopters and motorboats to reach victims. "Santa Catarina is facing ITS WORST WEATHER TRAGEDY." The death toll was most severe in the town of Ilhota along the banks of the Itajai River, where 15 people died after waters rose 9 metres (30 feet) above normal. Also hard hit was the city of Blumenau, where 13 people died when they were buried by mudslides. (map/photo/video)
The latest flooding resulted from FREAK rains on Sunday that delivered A MONTH'S AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN JUST FIVE HOURS.

FLORIDA - UNUSUAL cloud formation seen over Tampa Bay area - called a 'hole punch cloud', the phenomena has happened before, but on a relatively infrequent basis. A few strikingly similar past photos were taken in south Florida, the Carolinas and even Australia and Canada. (photo)

AUSTRALIA - 'Weird' weather plays havoc in NSW region - November is known for its warmth, showers and thunderstorms. However, the temperature over Sunday night and Monday morning in Toowoomba dropped to a chilly 10 degrees. Kingaroy dropped to the lowest in the state at six degrees which reflected the weird weather occurring down south. “It's been a PRETTY UNUSUAL week. There were the thunder storms, extremely heavy rain during the week, cool dry south-westerly winds coming up with snow falling on the New South Wales alps.”

Tuesday, November 25, 2008 -

The enemy is anybody who's going to get you killed, no matter which side he's on.
Joseph Heller

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/24/08 -
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
7.3 SEA OF OKHOTSK

California sensors misread Russian earthquake as local - The computers registered quakes in Big Bear and Central California, but they were really picking up waves from a magnitude 7.3 near Russia. "It happens with a particular circumstance, when there's an earthquake that's far away that's very deep. Our computer was briefly confused." The real earthquake was a magnitude 7.3 temblor in the Sea of Okhotsk. It occurred about 1 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, about 300 miles below ground. Shortly after, sensors in the U.S. sent out alerts of a magnitude 3.4 earthquake in Big Bear, a 3.8 quake in Central California, and a 4.8 quake in southeastern Idaho.

VOLCANOES -
WASHINGTON - Underwater volcano found off coast. Crew members of a research ship say they were surprised to find a volcano more than 10,000 feet underwater 200 miles off the coast of Washington.

COLUMBIA - Authorities continue evacuating people from Belalcázar, La Plata and Inza, towns on the shore of the Rio Paéz amid fears of a new avalanche. Official figures say the avalanche set off by the eruption of the Nevado del Huila volcano last Thursday killed six people, but fears are many more died. Some reports say 150 people are still missing. Large amounts of water currently in a recess are still threatening to come down if another eruption, heavy rains or earth quake hits the region. The avalanche that follows the release of this water could produce an avalanche bigger than the one that hit the villages Saturday, when a second mudslide hit the already heavily affected areas. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Forecasters are watching a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea they say shows potential for development. The area of storms is tucked into the southwest area of the Caribbean, north of Panama. It is in about the only area in the tropics with water temperatures high enough to support tropical system development. The National Hurricane Center has watched the mass of thunderstorms for a few days. Forecasters say it could become a tropical depression in a day or two if it remains over water as it has become better organized. The hurricane center gives the disturbance a 20 to 50 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression. Forecast models mostly keep it around Central America, and some have it even crossing into the Pacific Ocean. It is now drifting slowly west. The disturbance is in the same general area of the Caribbean that spawned the late season Hurricane Paloma, Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Marco.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Flooding in southern Brazil killed at least 65 people and forced thousands from their homes after weeks of heavy rain. The first deaths were reported Saturday after two days of heavy downpours and weeks of steady rain. Eight towns have been cut off by the flood waters while more than 160,000 people are without electricity.

PANAMA - Five people died in flooding and landslides in western Panama provoked by heavy rains.

SPACE WEATHER-
Researchers find ancient meteorite dust - Explorers and geologists in the Antarctic report finding the world's largest and oldest cache of meteorite particles. Some 1.35 million bits of space dust were found while the group was on an expedition in the Transatlantic Mountains. The dust could offer possibilities on how life began on Earth. The explorers found balls of Earth glass and other material that came from a gigantic cosmic impact that probably occurred in INDONESIA. Many of the particles are "gigantic, permitting tests that were impossible up till now." The discovery will allow scientists to trace meteorite showers dating back 1 million years ago.
Biggest and oldest find ever, scientists say - The find promises "many UNUSUAL things". "For example, we found particles present at a depth corresponding to around 480,000 years ago that document a catastrophic meteorite event that was hitherto unknown. What's more, the collection contains balls of Earth glass, or microtectites, half a millimetre in diameter, which come from a gigantic cosmic impact, also unknown, which probably took place in Indonesia, more than 1,000 km from the Transantarctic Mountains."

OHIO - 11/13/08 - No answer to landing of mysterious object - Was it some kind of aircraft that fell from the sky Thursday afternoon, or was it a meteorite? Whatever it was left no trace in a field north of Route 20, though several apparently credible people saw it. "As I saw it go lower toward the tree level I pulled over in my car and rolled the window down expecting to hear a crash or see flames. It may have been a meteorite. It had the glow of molten metal." The Police Department led the search for what was believed at the time to be some kind of small plane, perhaps an ultralight. "Today we're thinking this was an atmospheric anomaly, a meteorite of some sort." Police are continuing their investigation.

Monday, November 24, 2008 -

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action.
Herbert Spencer

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/23/08 -
5.3 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 PUERTO RICO REGION [followed by a bunch of small aftershocks]
5.3 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - At least 10 people died, another 10 were injured and several are missing or trapped after the eruption of the Nevado del Huila volcano Thursday night. It has been impossible to establish "whether there have been other tragic events." The phenomenon chiefly affected the indigenous reservations located between the municipalities of Inza and Balalcazar. The authorities have been unable to reach the highest parts of the volcano southwest of Bogota because bad weather has kept helicopters carrying supplies out of the area and the roads were obliterated by avalanches that occurred at the time of Thursday night's eruption. The Indian governor of the Talaga reservation, the closest to the crater, reported two people dead and two children of the community missing after the Paez River avalanches. "The situation is pretty serious because we've been left practically on an island." Some 150 people are trapped in the upper part of the canyon of a river and they too cannot yet be evacuated because of the bad weather. One of the biggest problems pending in the catastrophe area is getting the electricity working again. The eruption of the Nevado del Huila volcano on Thursday night formed a crater approximately 400 meters (1,300 feet) in diameter on one of the peaks of the mountain range. The Bellavista stream, a tributary of the Paez River, was covered by the avalanche sparked by the interaction of the emerging hot lava with the layer of glacial ice.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Six people have died and thousands became homeless due to floods in the northern Philippines. Heavy rains over the past week have led to flooding in 18 towns and about 200 villages in the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan in northern Luzon island. More than 30,000 families were displaced and ready crops were damaged by these floods. The series of heavy rains and severe cold will continue for a further few days.

THAILAND - About 300 people ran for their lives yesterday when a landslide swept down a mountain and over part of a village in Surat Thani's Wipawadi district. Evacuating the area was hazardous as Ban Khlong Mui's main road was damaged by mountain run-off. Flooding caused by heavy rains has ravaged nine districts in Surat Thani since last Wednesday. In Pattani, rough seas forced 4,000 small-boat fishermen to stay ashore. Seafood was in scarce supply and fish prices increasing. The Meteorological Department yesterday said more torrential rain is likely in the South brought by a strong northeast monsoon which prevails over the South and the Gulf of Thailand. Provinces were warned to brace for more flooding.

CHINA - Five people were confirmed dead and one more remained missing after a landslide in south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Sunday.

AUSTRALIA - Queensland police are searching for a four-year-old girl after a levy broke in the storm-ravaged Australian state at the weekend. The dam burst following a weekend of unseasonal weather that battered eastern Australia. Snow fell, gales lashed the coast, knocking down trees and power. Brisbane and south-east Queensland were hit by three storms last week. One person was killed, caravans were swept away and roofs were torn from buildings during the Nov. 16 storms. Trees were uprooted, cars flattened and living rooms flooded during the deluge. More than 4,000 homes were damaged, schools were closed and Brisbane City Council issued bottled water to residents after the roof of the water reservoir caved in.
Weather forecasters have warned Queenslanders to brace for an extreme summer of cyclones and flooding that could batter the state until March. "I'm expecting 2009 will be similar to 2008 but more intense, with well above average rainfall, cyclonic activity right up and down the Queensland coastline and flooding. We will continue to see storm activity and from December into January we will see that switching to more cyclonic activity. I expect a fairly significant cyclone season, particularly in Queensland." "Summer hasn't even started...we can certainly expect more of the same and a continuation of heavy rainfall. What we are now seeing is, in my opinion, an indication of the future...we need to be preparing for weather that can change very quickly and affect several places in the state at any one time."

Sunday, November 23, 2008 -

“Give me control over a nation’s currency, and I care not who makes its laws.”
Mayer Amschel Rothschild

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/22/08 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.7 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
6.2 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.7 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.7 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
11/21/08 -
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
6.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Government warns New Madrid quake would be "catastrophic" - A Federal Emergency Management Agency report released Thursday said "catastrophic" damage would result in eight states — Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee - home to some 44 million people — if a large 7.7 earthquake happened along the vast New Madrid Seismic Zone. FEMA believes a large New Madrid quake would cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States." In Tennessee alone, it forecast hundreds of collapsed bridges, tens of thousands of severely damaged buildings and a half a million households without water. Transportation systems and hospitals would be wrecked, and police and fire departments impaired.

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Avalanches and mudslides killed at least four people and left three missing after the eruption this week of the NEVADO DEL HUILA volcano in south-western Colombia. Four bodies were found and they appeared to have been dragged by avalanches. National authorities had not yet confirmed any deaths from an avalanche over the Paez River, which witnesses said covered a swath up to 200 metres wide and took everything in its path. The volcano erupted Thursday night, prompting a red alert and orders to evacuate nearby areas. Regional authorities said about 13,000 people had been relocated. Reporters at the scene said at least eight bridges were wiped out. Two columns of gases and ash reached up to 10,000 meters above the crater. Other volcanoes have also increased their activity in recent days, including GALERAS in the south-western department of Narino and MACHIN in the west-central Tolima department. More than 60 people fled the zone near the Machin volcano on November 9 because of increasing tremors.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES officials ordered 200 villagers to leave their mountainside homes Saturday after at least six neighbors were killed in a landslide brought about by heavy rains since Thursday in Monkayo town in Compostela Valley province.

VENEZUELA - Heavy rains unleashed flooding and mudslides in Venezuela that killed at least eight people, including four children.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - Gale-force winds and snow in the NSW central-west are keeping State Emergency Service volunteers busy, just a week from the start of summer. Most of the damage has been caused by falling trees, but local roads are also being monitored after snow falls on Saturday night. The weather conditions are particularly unseasonable. "It's VERY UNUSUAL the week before summer to have such weather conditions." The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for NSW, with a deep low pressure system off the south coast expected to bring gale-force winds to most of the state before it moves east late today. Winds are expected to average 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h. Blizzard conditions are also anticipated in alpine areas of the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and the ACT.

INDIA - With higher reaches of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir receiving snowfall, most parts of Punjab were in the grip of a cold wave on Saturday as minimum temperature dropped sharply. Amritsar saw minimum temperature dipping to 4.4 degrees Celsius, which was three degrees below the normal.

BRITAIN - The UK was braced Friday for an Arctic blast as blizzard conditions and freezing temperatures were predicted to envelop much of Scotland and England. Rain from the Atlantic is likely to cause problems as it makes its way towards the UK - leading to severe weather warnings. Many areas will be frozen so as the rain comes in it is likely to freeze making for very treacherous driving conditions. A cold snap in late November would traditionally herald the start of winter proper but this year has already proved an exception with snow covering parts of the south east of England, including London in late October. The FREAK snowfall on the night of October 28 has already been described by forecasters as THE MOST OUTSTANDING EXAMPLE OF EARLY SNOWFALL SINCE 1880 in the South East and has seen some bookmakers slashing their odds on a white Christmas.

SPACE WEATHER-
CANADA - 11/20/08 - A massive ball of fire that lit up the skies over two Western Canadian provinces on Thursday evening was likely among the biggest meteor events to be witnessed in Canada this year. The fireball, which streaked through the darkening skies over Alberta and Saskatchewan at about 5:30 p.m. Calgary time, likely weighed between one and 10 tons and shone brightly enough to be seen over an area 700 km (435 miles) wide. "It was somewhere between the size of a chair to the size of a desk. This one was pretty spectacular. For this year it will be one of the biggest that happens over Canada.... Something like this radiates like a billion-watt bulb. It's pretty bright light in the sky." The meteor may have broken into hundreds of smaller meteorites that likely landed in central Saskatchewan near that province's border with Alberta. The fireball lit up the skies for about five seconds.

Friday, November 21, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
One person with passion is better than forty people merely interested.
E. M. Forster

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/20/08 -
5.0 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Thousands of people were evacuated Thursday after the Nevado del Huila volcano erupted. Authorities declared a state of red alert and order everyone within the surroundings to immediately leave their homes. Authorities called for the immediate evacuation of La Plata, Paicol, Nátaga and Tesalia, but it's uncertain if the population of the surrounding towns and villages cooperate with authorities. In April this year many people refused to respond to an evacuation call. The eruption took place at 21:45 and immediately made the Colombian seismologist institute to raise the state of alert to its highest level. The eruption caused a mudslide that passed an indigenous settlement alongside the Paez river, but no injuries were reported. Seismic activity seemed to go down again after the initial eruption, but authorities remain cautious. An eruption of the volcano in 1994 - the first in 500 years - resulted in the deaths of more than a thousand indigenous living close to the volcano. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ANIKA was 997 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone BERNARD was 1021 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.

Cyclone Anika is forecast to strike Australia at about 16:00 GMT on 22 November. (projected path map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CUBA - Heavy rains caused a river in eastern Cuba to overflow its banks, flooding highways and more than 2,000 homes, and leading authorities to evacuate nearly 20,000 people. Severe flooding was also reported in the neighboring Caribbean islands of Grenada and Jamaica. There were no immediate reports of deaths on any of the three islands. Eastern Cuba was already saturated in recent months by three major hurricanes: Gustav, Ike and Paloma. Rainfall of more than six inches over five days caused floods and landslides that wiped out at least one roadway on the island of Grenada. The island's water supply system was also damaged, leaving some customers without service.

AUSTRALIA - RECORD RAINS fall on Alice Springs - The desert town Wednesday night had already recorded its WETTEST NOVEMBER and there are still 11 days left in the month. Up to 4.30pm, 155.6mm of rain had fallen across the district - 23mm more than the previous record noted for November in 2002 (132.6mm). The average rainfall at Alice Springs Airport for the month of November is only 53.1mm. The downpour in Central Australia was UNUSUAL for this time of year. More rain is expected.
Hundreds of tourists were stranded in Alice Springs after the desert town was deluged with rain at the weekend. The usually bone-dry Todd River flowed for the second time in a week as the red heart of Australia was hit with hundreds of millimetres of rain. The arid Outback, which hadn't seen any decent rain since January, had looked like it had been "burnt with a giant blowtorch". (photos)
Southern and central Queenslanders are bracing for the fourth fierce storm in a devastating week described as a "never-ending story". The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast wild winds and possible hail tomorrow across an area stretching from Barcaldine to Brisbane. The early string of storms doesn't bode well for summer.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - Flaky weather pattern - Snow and thunderstorms forecast for this weekend are part of a BIZARRE WEATHER PATTERN which could produce the wildest November weather in years. The maximum temperature predicted for today is 10 degrees, 11 degrees below the monthly average. A cold front is to move over in the afternoon, bringing thunderstorms. Hail and snow are forecast to fall in high areas tonight and tomorrow morning. Gailforce winds are expected to pass over from the south-east corner of the state. The “unusual” and “dramatic” weather pattern is set to result in the coldest November day since 2001, when the maximum was 9.3 degrees on November 19. The last report of snow in November was on this day in 1996, which was a bizarre coincidence and definitely out of the ordinary. “The records for the last 50 years show the snow season ending earlier than November, so if it snows it will be VERY UNUSUAL. [The weather forecast] is an UNUSUAL extreme example of a springtime cold front.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Today’s unsettling comparison to ‘the great dying’ - 250 million years ago, rising greenhouse-gas levels set off catastrophic changes. The end-Permian extinction 251 million years ago was the worst of earth’s five mass extinctions. 90% of all marine life and 70% of terrestrial life disappeared. It took five million years, perhaps more, for the biosphere to recover. The more they learn about it, the more parallels scientists see to today’s world: A bout of greenhouse-gas-induced global warming, much like today’s, set off a chain of events that culminated in oxygen-depleted oceans exhaling poison gas. And as in today’s human-dominated earthscape, life was already stressed. “Something came along and kicked it over the edge. Should there be a great kick [now], we are in a position for a great die-off." Two hundred and fifty million years ago, Earth was emerging from a period of glaciation. The transition from icehouse to greenhouse was already stressing life, scientists think. Then magma began bursting through the crust of what is now Siberia. The eruption was tremendous. Over the course of maybe 1 million years, enough lava flowed to cover the continental United States half a mile deep. The crust through which it bubbled contained vast coal and limestone deposits from an earlier time. As it burned through this fossilized organic material, it released huge amounts of carbon. Today, by burning fossil fuels, humans are again releasing carbon sequestered long ago, and at a similarly rapid rate. We’re still some way from the atmospheric CO2 levels hypothesized at the end-Permian extinction – which were perhaps 10 times preindustrial levels, or 2,800 ppm. Yet, according the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, if trends continue we’re still approaching 1,000 ppm of CO2 by 2100. That’s not Permian-extinction levels, but it would be the highest CO2 concentration in 80 million years, and a level at which both ocean anoxia and lesser extinctions have occurred.

HEALTH THREATS -
Pandemic will threaten coal, power supplies - A new report from the University of Minnesota warns that an influenza pandemic could disrupt the coal industry, thereby endangering the nation's significantly coal-dependent electric power system and everything that depends on it. "Despite regional differences in coal usage, a pandemic is likely to break links in the coal supply chain, thus disrupting electrical generation. This has the potential to severely endanger the bulk electrical power system in most of the United States." Current federal preparedness plans do not address the possibility of power supply problems resulting from reduced coal shipments during a pandemic. A key planning gap is that federal plans put coal industry workers among those last in line for pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs.

A mix of bacteria-killing viruses may be sprayed on cold cuts, wieners and sausages to combat common microbes that kill hundreds of people a year. The ruling, by the Food and Drug Administration, is the first approval of viruses as a food additive. Treatments that use bacteriophages to attack harmful bacteria have been a part of folk medicine for hundreds of years in India and for decades in the former Soviet Union. The approved mix of six viruses is intended to be sprayed onto ready-to-eat meat and poultry products, including sliced ham and turkey. Consumers will not be aware which meat and poultry products have been treated with the spray.

Thursday, November 20, 2008 -

Forgive your enemies, but never forget their names.
John F. Kennedy

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/19/08 -
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 NORTHERN PERU
6.2 PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
OREGON - The Yurok Tribe is preparing for the worst - the possibility of a huge tsunami that could run up the Klamath River and the low-lying areas along it. The most important aim is to make sure no one is caught up in a real tsunami, like two people were in 1964. Only one of those people was rescued. The tribe has installed warning sirens that would be used to warn of a tsunami approaching from far away. The tribe has also built evacuation routes, some of which are trails that lead up the wooded hillsides. ”This is a component of the tribe's overall strategy to keep Klamath residents safe in the event of natural disasters." If a large earthquake nearby generates a tsunami, it would take 10 to 15 minutes for it to hit Klamath. In that event, the earthquake itself would be the signal for people to get to high ground, as the sirens themselves may be destroyed.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 03S was 468 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.
Cyclone ANIKA was 1081 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - One woman is feared dead as widespread floods sweep through southeast Queensland after an overnight deluge dumped 250mm of rain in some areas. The elderly woman's car was swept off a road. Major highways and suburban roads are impassable, train lines cut and emergency services are telling people not to travel unless absolutely essential.
Another severe weather alert has been issued for southeast Queensland - with forecasts of thunderstorms, large hailstones and strong winds likely to hit the region tonight. The warning follows last night's deluge, which caused widespread flooding and chaos. Last night's storm was the second to hit southeast Queensland this week. Just as the power was restored to the last of 220,000 homes blacked out following Sunday's super cell storm, heavy winds and rain lashed Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast. In Brisbane, work was under way to prevent landslides. Part of the rail line between Ipswich and Brisbane has been washed out and services have been cancelled.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008 -

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time.
We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.
Barack Obama

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/18/08 -
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 VANUATU
5.7 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 VANUATU
5.3 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.1 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.5 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA

MYSTERY BOOMS -
ENGLAND - 11/18/08 - People living on Anglesey have been left baffled about the cause of a loud noise which shook their homes and made pots and pans rattle. Residents heard a loud "rumbling" noise at 1425 GMT. "It was a very obvious noise, and I thought there had been an earthquake...We all heard this rumbling getting nearer and nearer the house. The cooker hood began to shake and the saucepans on top of the microwave rattled." A spokesman at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh said no seismic activity had been measured in the area. But he added that a number of calls had been received about the noise.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ANIKA was 1045 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia.

The first tropical cyclone of spring has formed off the coast of Western Australia, marking an early start to the storm season. Cyclone Anika is brewing 155km north-east of Cocos Island. Packing wind gusts of up to 100km/h, Anika is expected to pass north of Cocos Island this afternoon. The Southern Oscillation Index – used to predict storm activity by measuring air pressure – shows strong trade winds in the Pacific and warm sea temperatures. This positive SOI also causes earlier and more frequent tropical storms. The bureau has predicted five to seven cyclones for WA this year, compared to four last season.

INDIA - The prevailing wet weather over southern peninsula, which promises to spread into the west and northwest, is occurring despite the growing footprint of a suppressed convection phase from a planetary-scale Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. The MJO wave with its alternating dry and wet phases has a say on prevailing regional weather, while transiting periodically from West Africa into the Indian Ocean and into the Pacific. “The uniqueness about the Indian monsoon regime is that while being decidedly responsive to the wet phase of an MJO wave, it can hold itself together reasonably well even in the face of its alternating dry phase." This is attributed to the inherent dynamics of the Indian monsoon regime. This apparent dichotomy could not be more evident than during the short-duration northeast monsoon (two months against the four months of southwest monsoon) during when MJO peaks are commensurately fewer. “We have even had the odd tropical cyclone develop during the suppressed convection phase of an MJO,” - a RARE OCCURRENCE of intense sea-based weather systems conventionally identified with peak MJO phase. The equatorial Indian Ocean covering Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula slipping under the influence of a dry MJO phase even as the air over the southern peninsula is awash with moisture. Erstwhile Bay of Bengal cyclone Khai-Muk had helped direct an atmospheric river of moisture to flow inland. An easterly wave-in-the-making (seen by some models to strengthen to higher levels) is now forecast to pump incremental moisture into the peninsula. Almost in tandem, an incoming western disturbance with an embedded trough is forecast to mop up moisture from the Arabian Sea to be smeared over northwest and adjoining central India.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - On Monday, scientists and policy experts unveiled San Diego County's first blueprint for adapting to rising sea levels, altered rainfall and other “catastrophic” changes linked to global warming. Compared with today, San Diego County in 2050 will require 37 percent more water, the number of days with prime conditions for major wildfires will be up to 20 percent greater, and the sea level will be at least 1 foot higher. The results could be more frequent flooding of coastal properties, more severe water shortages and greater strains on public health agencies. “It's a pace of change that we just have not experienced. We need to start thinking about what we would do if different scenarios play out.” Roughly three-quarters of the city and county governments in California are addressing climate issues. Plans for dealing with floods, habitat destruction, public health emergencies and other climate-related problems can be complex because they need to deal with localized conditions rather than universal norms. “We can't really stop global warming in our lifetimes. What we can do is make the impacts less awful than they would otherwise be if we didn't do anything.”
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has instructed state agencies to prepare for climate change, especially rising seas, as they plan to replace, upgrade and repair the system of pipelines that distributes water around sewage treatment plants and low-lying airports, among other things. “We’ve got a huge budget deficit. We don’t want to be investing in infrastructure that could be underwater in 20 to 30 years.” The state, if it fails to act, could suffer tens of billions of dollars in damage to its real estate, transportation systems and industries from water, fire and other climate-driven calamities by the century’s end. Other jurisdictions, including Florida, Maryland and New York City, are also looking at the future with an eye toward climate change.

WASHINGTON - Climate change already felt in South Sound - an increase of 1.5 degrees in the state's average daily temperature between 1900 and 2000 in Washington has contributed to a 30 percent decline in the spring snowpack in the lower Cascades and a similar decline in summer stream flows in several sensitive river basins. Global climate models suggest the average annual temperature in the state will continue to climb about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit each decade over the next 50 years, leading to milder winters, hotter summers, less water, more wildfires and drought, loss of hydropower and diminished summer water supplies. "It's more than climate change; IT'S CLIMATE CHAOS." Take the iconic Puget Sound. Cities that have grown to the water's edge, including Olympia, will be susceptible to sea-level rise, which is predicted to be 6 inches by 2050 and 14 inches by 2100. Nowhere is the problem more acute than South Sound because the high tides are higher at the southern end of Puget Sound.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008 -

Socialism failed because it couldn't tell the economic truth;
capitalism may fail because it couldn't tell the ecological truth.
Lester Brown

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/17/08 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.2 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.4 VANUATU REGION
5.6 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 BANDA SEA
11/16/08 -
5.1 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.5 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
7.4 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.3 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

INDONESIA - The death toll from the 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck off the Indonesian island of Sulawesi has risen to six with more than 150 people injured. Monday's quake sent thousands of people fleeing to higher ground in the middle of the night fearing a possible tsunami. About 1,120 houses have been flattened. Almost 10,000 people have been displaced from their homes.

PAKISTAN - Balochistan quake-stricken areas continued suffering aftershock jolts and intensifying cold, while the incidence of diseases like diarrhea and pneumonia including psychiatry cases were also inflicting heavy tolls in these areas. Medical experts said that the aftershocks have revived the psychiatric diseases among the old patients.

BULGARIA - A total of 23 aftershocks has shaken Bulgaria's capital during the weekend following the major earthquake on Saturday evening. The aftershocks' magnitudes did not measure more than 2 on the Richter scale. The aftershocks could continue for up to three weeks as the epicenter of the first tremor was in the Vitosha fault. The relatively strong 4-magnitude tremor with three consecutive vertical shocks was felt on Saturday evening, around 10:08 pm everywhere in the Bulgarian capital city. The earthquake had a very short duration of 2-3 seconds, but was enough to send many people out on the streets. Minutes after the shock there were interruptions in the landline phones as well as in the service of some mobile operators.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
A team of American and Croatian experts wrapped up a survey forecasting devastating earthquakes in the Balkan region. The scientists explored the possibility of tectonic disturbance near Dubrovnik and in the Balkan in general, and they came up with an unbelievable discovery about a 200-kilometer-long tectonic crack stretching northwest. The scientists estimate that the entire Balkan region could be jeopardized by devastating earthquakes likely to unleash tsunamis. Experts, however, say the tsunamis will be of lower intensity compared to the tsunami that hit Indonesia. Nonetheless, it could destroy the entire coastline. The scientists said the Balkan could be hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.

SRI LANKA - Fishermen in the south are having a bumper catch this season, despite the rough seas. The UNPRECEDENTED bumper harvest of fish this year in the southern coastal belt brought down the price of small fish. Huge catches of small fish known as badawella are seen piled up along the beaches in several fishing areas. Shoals of fish move to the shallow waters due to the intense heat in the deep sea. “It is said that the UNUSUALLY large caches of fish is a precursor of another tsunami." Time will decide whether the unusually large shoals of fish is an indication of environmental changes in the sea, a sign of a tsunami or a period of fortune for the fisher folk.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression NOUL was 94 nmi NNE of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

Strong tropical storm NOUL churned towards southern Vietnam on Monday, threatening a direct hit on the densely populated Mekong Delta. Vietnam called its fishermen ashore and began evacuating 80,000 people from high-risk areas. The tropical storm lost force before striking the country's central coast on Monday, bringing heavy rains but no deaths or injuries.

Cyclone Khai-Muk remnant causes rains to linger in India. Erstwhile cyclone Khai-Muk has weakened rapidly since encountering land, and only a remnant cyclonic circulation managed to cross the peninsular landmass and slide into the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka-Goa coasts on Monday. A fresh easterly wave is likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over parts of south peninsular India for five days from Wednesday. According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, however, the easterly wave activity would be a spin-off from a prevailing tropical storm named ‘Noul’ prowling the waters of the South China Sea. Noul is expected to cross into Vietnam and weaken as a tropical depression. From here, it is shown to sneak into the Gulf of Thailand and cross the territorial waters into southeast Bay of Bengal around Wednesday. The system would then start slowly to veer west-northwest and head towards the southeast coast of India. In doing so, it would intensify as a tropical storm (deep depression) and would still have enough time and space to rustle up energy. According to private forecasters, the rain-cooled (from Khai-Muk) seawaters and impending westerly wave action would have a crucial say on its potential for further strengthening. London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group also sees a tropical storm developing in the Bay as a logical extension to a counterpart storm impacting Vietnam.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - A severe storm battered Brisbane on Sunday, ONE OF THE BIGGEST STORMS TO HIT THE CITY IN TWO DECADES, tearing off roofs, bringing down trees and powerlines, and leaving many without liveable homes. About 30,000 properties across Brisbane, Redcliffe and the Gold Coast were without power after the storm brought hail and wind gusts of up to 130km/h. Up to 4000 homes were damaged, with 300 homes "significantly damaged" and 30 deemed unliveable.
"It's Armageddon. There are pieces of timber and steel everywhere and it's as if a bomb has gone off." Wind, lightning, rain and hailstones cut electricity to more than 230,000 homes and businesses, while falling branches and trees tore down more than 33 kilometers of lines. The cyclone-like storms ripped across the southeast corner of Australia's tropical state Queensland, killing one man.

INDONESIA - The death toll from last week's landslide triggered by torrential rains in Indonesia's West Java province has risen to 11.

ETHIOPIA - A river in Ethiopia's highlands burst its banks after heavy rains, killing 11 people and stranding hundreds more on Monday. Flooding from the Wabe Shebelle river in southeast Ethiopia has submerged more than 100 villages. "Inhabitants in 116 villages in an area covering a 90-km (56-mile) radius have been stranded on hillocks surrounded by the flood water. Efforts to rescue hundreds of marooned people have become impossible due to the extent of land covered by the flood." Some 6,000 head of livestock and 2,500 hectares of crop were destroyed.

SOUTH AFRICA - Flooding in southern South Africa left one person dead, damaged roads, bridges, orchards and vineyards, and left thousands of people stranded. Damaged caused by the floods could reach 1 billion rand ($99 million). They were THE WORST FLOODS IN MEMORY.

COLUMBIA - Three children and two adults were found dead in the rubble after a landslide swept away a number of houses in the upper class neighborhood of El Poblado in the south of Medellín early Sunday morning. Eight people are still missing and considered dead. Rescue workers say four houses are completely buried under the mud and rocks. The families are still inside those houses. There was no chance of survivors, because of the devastation and size of the avalanche. Earlier this weekend floods and landslides already cost the lives of three in the department of Tolima. The second rainy season this year has forced 600,000 people from their home already. It's the second time this year a landslide of this size took lives in Medellín. A landslide in May killed 28 people.

BRITAIN - great ball of light strikes Wales. In the violent storms last Monday a strange incident struck near Kidwelly, Carmarthenshire, South Wales. A woman was sitting in her living room with her husband when there was a loud crack of thunder. “Between us in the centre of the room this very, very bright white light appeared, it was about 15 to 18 inches in diameter. The ball just appeared around about head height, it didn’t move, it just appeared. The light was so bright that it cast shadows, even though we had lights on in the room at the time.” The ball then vanished with “an absolutely horrendous bang” and the power in the house went off for around 15 seconds before coming back on again. Afterwards there was no sign of damage or evidence that the ball of light had been in the room. “There was no smell, nothing fell from it, it was just a ball that was there for a split second." At the same time, another eyewitness upstairs in the same house saw another very bright light drawn from the landing into his bedroom. This entire incident was probably a case of ball lightning, a rare and fascinating weather phenomenon. These glowing balls of light come in a range of colours and sizes, often drawn into buildings where they can be attracted to electrical equipment before exploding with a deafening blast. Despite their light, noise and appeal for electrical things, they rarely cause damage or injury. However, what exactly they are, or what causes them, remains a mystery.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

California Fire Season Now Year-Round in Era of `Mega' Blazes - California's fire season used to start in August and end by Christmas. Now it lasts year-round, and the number of blazes across the state may double this year. Firefighters are currently battling three wind-whipped blazes that have burned hundreds of homes near Los Angeles. Fanned by high winds, blazes stretching from Santa Barbara to Anaheim, Calif., have scorched an estimated 35,000 acres "We are in the mega-fire era." More than 1.42 million acres have burned in California in 2008, up from 1.16 million last year. The 9,603 fires this year compare with 5,961 in 2007 and have cost at least $464.5 million to fight. Since 2000, the U.S. has experienced six of the top 10 busiest fire seasons since records started being kept in 1960. The amount of acres burned nationwide has increased 50 percent from the 1970s to the present.
There were RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES in eight Northern California cities on Saturday.

BRITAIN got a blast of warm air brought on by depressions off the Atlantic. In much of Scotland, temperatures dropped to only about 54 degrees Friday night. The weather has been shifting as depressions off the Atlantic push against high pressure from the south or east. Britain's mild conditions have been brought by a block of high pressure drifting up from the sub-tropical Azores. The Scottish Highlands and North Wales are warm thanks to the so-called fohn wind, which are best known in the Alps for melting snow and creating such dry conditions. Just two weeks ago London experienced a snow fall. Forecasters say the coming weeks will be a climatological roller coaster because of the northward-moving tropical weather systems.

Sunday, November 16, 2008 -

Rejoice not at thine enemy's fall - but don't rush to pick him up either.
Jewish Proverb

QUAKES -
This afternoon there has been a 7.6 quake in MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA. A second 6.0 magnitude quake struck shortly afterwards in northern Sulawesi. A tsunami warning has been issued. Indonesia launched a new hi-tech system on Tuesday aimed at detecting a potential tsunami and providing faster alerts.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/15/08 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS
11/14/08 -
5.1 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.2 BOUVET ISLAND REGION (south of Africa)
5.1 BOUVET ISLAND REGION
5.9 BOUVET ISLAND REGION
5.3 OFF COAST OF OREGON

MAINE - Small quake sounded like 'a huge blast' - Residents from Hanover to Newry heard and felt a minor earthquake that hit at 5:26 a.m. Thursday. There were no immediate reports of damage from the quake that measured 2.2 on the Richter scale. The quake's epicenter appeared to be in Newry's Plumbago Mountain area north of Hanover's Howard Pond. "It was rumbling and then there was a bad explosion. It was weird. My son said it shook his bed." "It sounded like someone had blasted at Mount Will. All I heard was a huge blast. Some people who called us said they thought it was a plane crash, some thought their roof had caved in or their woodpile fell over. I looked around at my neighbors' houses because I thought it was a propane tank explosion."

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - A total of 89 volcanic tremors from Anak Krakatau volcano were recorded in the Sunda Strait on Monday, raising the mountain`s danger status. "Until now the volcanic activity of the mountain is still continuing." Visitors and fishermen were not yet allowed to get near the volcano. The danger status is set at level II and it had not been lifted by the Volcanology Center of the Geological Disaster Mitigation Agency in Bandung.

COLUMBIA - Possible eruption in the coming days or weeks for Volcán Nevado del Huila - Changes in volcanic activity levels for Volcán Galeras and Cerro Machín. To date, Volcán Nevado del Huila is in phase II: eruption probable in matter of days or weeks, due to a major increase in seismic activity, a significant increase in movement of magma to the surface has led to constant emission of gas and ash. Volcán Galeras and Cerro Machín are in phase III: Changes in volcanic activity level.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm HAISHEN was 785 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.
Cyclone KHAI-MUK was 475 nmi ESE of Bombay, India.
Tropical storm TWENTYSIX was 449 nmi E of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

INDIA - An alert was sounded in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh as cyclone Khai Muk over Bay of Bengal threatened to hit the coast Saturday evening. The state government directed the officials in all nine coastal districts to be on alert and take necessary steps to evacuate the people from areas near the coast and also the low-lying places. The storm lay centred about 230 km southeast of Machilipatnam. It is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross the Andhra coast between Bapatla and Kakinada, near Machilipatnam. Heavy to very heavy rainfall was likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Gale winds with a speed of 75 km to 85 km are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam. The centre predicted one to two metre high tidal waves at the time of the storm hitting the coast. Krishna district authorities have urged people to evacuate to areas near the coast.

Tropical depression Twentysix is forecast to strike Vietnam as a tropical storm at about 08:00 GMT on 17 November. (projected path map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
RUSSIA - authorities say a cyclone headed for Sakhalin Island will add to the damage left by a powerful storm earlier this month. The cyclone's strong winds and heavy rains were expected to strike the island today and Monday as the storm moved in from Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan. The storm is expected to be strongest in the Tatar Strait in the north of the Sea of Japan and in the west and southwest of the Sea of Okhots. As of Saturday, power had been restored in less than half of the 48 settlements where utilities had been knocked out in a powerful Nov. 8 storm

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Fires whipped up by hot hurricane force gusts ringed Los Angeles on Saturday, charring thousands of acres and hundreds of homes in California's largest city and threatening the city's power supply. More than 10,000 residents were under mandatory evacuation orders as a fire that exploded overnight in the foothills of the Angeles National Forest barreled into the San Fernando Valley and burned more than 6,500 acres. The dry Santa Ana winds sweeping in from the desert fanned the fire in the foothills near Sylmar that HAS DESTROYED MORE HOMES THAN ANY OTHER FIRE IN THE PAST DECADE. Chaotic, gusting winds fanned wildfires all over Southern California on Saturday, reducing 500 mobile homes to cinders and forcing thousands of homeowners and even firefighters to flee as flames as high as 50 feet licked at their heels. The fire raged on both sides of Interstate 5, the main freeway connecting Los Angeles with the north, and the path of transmission lines bringing power to the city of 10 million. Two of the five main transmission lines had to be taken down because of damage to a converting station, and a third power line was directly damaged by heat. A separate fire flared south of Los Angeles in Orange County on Saturday morning, charring more than 800 acres and destroying at least 10 structures in the communities of Yorba Linda and Corona, south of Los Angeles. And, further up the coast near Santa Barbara, firefighters continued to battle the two-day-old blaze in the celebrity enclave of Montecito, where 111 homes have been destroyed. Mountains were engulfed in flames and billows of smoke were visible from space by weather satellite. (photo / video)
Heat on Friday beat the 102-YEAR-OLD RECORD as temps hit 88 in Santa Rosa. High pressure was building in the eastern Pacific between California and Hawaii and combining with offshore winds to push temperatures up.

Shrimp which is 'louder than a gunshot' found in British waters - The shrimps, which are native to the sub-tropical seas of the Mediterranean, have only been recorded in UK waters a handful of times. They are INCREDIBLY RARE in British waters because the temperature is usually too cold. The one-inch long 'pistol shrimp' snaps its enlarged claw shut at such a speed that it produces a sound wave of up to 218 decibels. The ear-splitting sound shocks its prey before the shrimp uses its powerful claws to rip through crustacean and shellfish skeletons. Two of the crustaceans have been picked up two miles off Pendennis Point in Falmouth, Cornwall, and experts believe they are part of a thriving colony. "The fisherman brought in a bucket and I started to hear this cracking noise as if someone was popping bubble wrap. It wasn't until we unloaded the bucket that I realised the sound was coming from the shrimps snapping their claws together." "I have heard of yachtsmen being moored in a bay and not being able to sleep because of the noise these shrimps make." The species is likely to be seen in UK waters more and more as sea temperatures rise.

Friday, November 14, 2008 -

Isn't it interesting that the same people who laugh at science fiction
listen to weather forecasts and economists?
Kelvin Throop III

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/13/08 -
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.3 OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
5.0 FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 05B was 578 nmi SSW of Calcutta, India.

Atlantic Hurricane Season wrap-up - The 2008 hurricane season was the second costliest on record. This year's estimated tropical season damage cost is around 50 milion dollars. Of the fifteen named storms, five reached at least category three strength, classifying them as major hurricanes. "We're in a warm cycle in the north atlantic in another 10-12 years that's going to reverse and go back to cooler conditions and less tropical activity on our side of the world." Aside from being an exceptionally active season, 2008 set many records. Tropical storm Fay was the first storm to make landfall four differing times in Florida. It dumped a record 30 inches of rain in Brevard County before slowly making it's way to the Florida panhandle. Fay wreaked havoc on the United states for nine days. "One of the common characteristics that we had of the storms this year in the north atlantic is most of them blew up or evolved in the western side of the atlantic. You didn't see very many that developed on the eastern side and made their way across." In September hurricane Ike packed tropical storm force winds 550 miles out in diameter and hurricane force winds outwards of 240 miles, classifying it as the largest Atlantic hurricane on record. Additionally, Ike was the third costliest storm to ever hit the United States. Hurricane season offically ends November 30th.

We’re two days from the midpoint of November, and still seeing orange blobs on the hurricane map. That means a “medium” (20 percent to 50 percent) chance for forming a tropical cylone 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Forecasters don’t see any serious threat to Florida at this point, but it is a testament to the staying power of this hurricane season that there’s even a colored blob to talk about. The beleaguered Caribbean is still cleaning up from Paloma, the second-latest Category 4 storm ever to form in November.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
New radar helps predict rainfall - A team of Oxfordshire scientists have developed new technology which will help forecast rain more accurately. The radar lets meteorologists see what is happening in a cloud, rather than just beneath it. It can also reach up to 10 miles high, nearly twice the height a commercial aircraft can reach. The system, which took 10 years to develop, is currently undergoing trials. "You can look at the [radar] return and predict with reasonable confidence if it's going to rain in the next 10 minutes."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Fire destroys up to 80 houses in Montecito - "It looked like lava coming down a volcano." A fast-moving brush fire driven by 50- to 70-mph winds erupted Thursday night in the hills above Montecito in Santa Barbara County, burning at least 800 acres, destroying up to 80 homes and forcing evacuations of luxury neighborhoods. The fire broke out about 6 p.m. in the wealthy Cold Springs area of Montecito, where a number of celebrities live, and quickly overwhelmed firefighters with its speed. "It's just moving so fast right now. . . . We're having trouble rounding up enough resources." The fire continues to press southwest, toward Santa Barbara. (photo)

A three-kilometre thick cloud of brown soot and other pollutants hanging over Asia is darkening cities, killing thousands and damaging crops but may be holding off the worst effects of global warming. The vast plume of contamination from factories, fires, cars and deforestation contains some particles that reflect sunlight away from the earth, cutting its ability to heat the earth. "One of the impacts of this atmospheric brown cloud has been to mask the true nature of global warming on our planet." The amount of sunlight reaching earth through the murk has fallen by up to a quarter in the worst-affected areas and if the brown cloud disperses, global temperatures could rise by up to 2 degrees Celsius. The complex impact of the cloud, which tends to cool areas near the surface of the earth and warm the air higher up, is believed to be causing a shortening of the monsoon season in India while increasing flooding there and in southern China. Soot from the cloud is also deposited on glaciers, which are at the centre of environmentalists' and politicians' concerns because they feed Asia's key rivers and provide drinking water for billions who live along them. There the particles capture more solar heat than white, reflective snow and ice - speeding up melting of a key resource. Around 340,000 people are dying prematurely because of damage to their lungs, hearts and risk of cancer.

HEALTH THREATS -
US authorities have issued a nationwide "import alert" for Chinese-made food products in the wake of the melamine contamination scandal. The FDA had already issued an alert warning Americans not to consume Chinese products containing milk. Thousands of Chinese have been poisoned this year. The latest alert goes beyond dairy products to such items as drinks, sweets, biscuits, instant coffee and tea products, and baby and pet food. It also allows US inspectors to seize any Chinese products suspected of being contaminated. The FDA is also planning to open three new offices in China to check products intended for the US market.

Thursday, November 13, 2008 -

Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.
H. G. Wells

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/12/08 -
5.0 VANUATU
5.3 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - In September the government gave up all hope of halting the mud volcano in East Java which has displaced thousands of people, hurt businesses, and destroyed the local environment. The disastrous mud volcano, which started erupting in May 2006 near Indonesia's second-biggest city of Surabaya, has proved a huge problem for the government. The hot, noxious mud has displaced more than 50,000 people, submerged homes, factories and schools and is now flowing at a rate of more than 100,000 cubic meters a day. Various attempts to halt the flow have all failed.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - 'Small tsunami' hits township - Over 30 Diepsloot, Johannesburg, residents were forced to spend Wednesday night at a fire station after a small flash flood swept over their shacks at around midnight. The group - which included 10 children - woke up to find the water in their homes had risen to their waists and were forced to evacuate what they later called a "small tsunami". Before dawn on Thursday the group returned to begin mopping up and trying to salvage as many of their belongings as possible. They were also scared that looters would descend on their empty shacks. The area where the flood took place, in Extension 2, has been hard hit by floods over the last several years and many of the families near the river have already been relocated.

INDONESIA - Public Awareness of the Danger of a Tsunami Threat Is Low - “Many warning devices are lost." Many people do not know how important the device is to give an early tsunami warning. The warning system can alert that there is a tsunami five minutes before it happens. Since 2005, four out of eight sirens set up on the west side of Sumatera and the north side of Sumbawa are broken and gone. “It is dangerous. We cannot detect a tsunami."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Tropical Depression Maysak has wandered southward, more or less, since the start of the week over the eastern South China Sea. Along the way, it has triggered locally excessive rainfall over the western Philippines. One amount was 11.0 inches/27.9 cm within 24 hours on Wednesday at Calapan on northern Mindoro Island. As of Wednesday the potential is rated "good" for Maysak, now drifted westwards, to regain tropical storm status over the open South China Sea between Palawan Island, Philippines, and central Vietnam. Thus, within 36 to 48 hours (of 1800 UTC Wednesday), Maysak may bring a shot of heavy rain and strong wind to central Vietnam. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
WASHINGTON - A small dam failed and caused minor flooding in Cosmopolis as heavy rain resulted in flood warnings Wednesday along rivers across western Washington. The dam at Mill Creek Park in the town about 40 miles west of Olympia collapsed after it was weakened by a falling tree. Some streets and nearby houses were flooded with several inches of water. Elsewhere in the state, about 200 residents were encouraged to evacuate from areas along the Carbon River near Orting, southeast of Tacoma. About 5 to 7 inches of rain had fallen in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. Wednesday, and another four to six hours of moderate to heavy rain appeared likely. Previous rains this month saturated the soil in most areas west of the Cascade Range, raising the risk of rock and mud slides.

ILLINOIS - The rain that fell Tuesday morning pushed 2008 into central Illinois’ meteorological record books, making 2008 THE WETTEST YEAR EVER.

TEXAS - Tyler City picked up 4.54 inches on Tuesday, making it a RECORD RAINFALL for November 11, and the third wettest day ever recorded during the month. Beaumont saw a RECORD RAINFALL of 3.48 inches at the Southeast Texas Regional Airport, surpassing the 2007 record of 3.12 inches.

NORTH DAKOTA - Earlier this month, Grand Forks posted a TRIO OF DAILY-RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS (0.45, 0.85, and 0.93 inch) from November 4-6.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
As if the global meltdown and soaring food prices are not enough, now brace up for food shortage in the coming two years. Even as the world is struggling to fight global market meltdown with companies sacking employees and Industries scaling down production, the world will also have to tackle food shortage and soaring prices in the coming days. According to United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, the current financial crisis will adversely affect agricultural sectors in many countries, including India and other developing countries. This warning is issued by the FAO despite predictions that world cereal production is set to hit a new record of some 2.24 billion tones in 2008/2009. Again, global rice production is also expected at 450 million tonnes during the same period. Still, this year’s record cereal harvest and the recent fall in food prices should not create a false sense of security. If the current price volatility and liquidity conditions prevail in 2008/09, plantings and output could be affected to such an extent that a new price surge might take place in 2009/10, unleashing even more severe food crises than those experienced recently. Most of the recovery in cereal production took place in developed countries, where farmers were in a better position to respond to high prices. In contrast, developing countries were largely limited in their capacity to respond to high prices by supply side constraints on their agricultural sectors. The sharp 2007/2008 rise in food prices has increased the number of undernourished people in the world to an estimated 923 million. Lower international commodity prices have not yet translated into lower domestic food prices in most low-income countries. World agriculture is facing serious long-term issues and challenges that need to be urgently addressed. These include land and water constraints, low investments in rural infrastructure and agricultural research, expensive agricultural inputs relative to farm-gate prices and little adaptation to climate change. The more critical and likely impact of the global meltdown will be on credit, whose non-availability is widely recognised as one of the major constraints to agricultural development in the developing countries, and the rationing of which is likely to be more serious than any interest rate effects. Taking lessons from the 1996 Asian financial crisis, the FAO suggested that countries and investors should meet their commitments on the development of agriculture in the developing countries as agriculture would act as a 'buffer' and help cushion greater losses incurred in other sectors of the economy.

Wednesday, November 11, 2008 -

It is possible to store the mind with a million facts and still be entirely uneducated.
Alec Bourne

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/11/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.4 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.0 MYANMAR

CHINA - Five factory workers were killed when a building collapsed during the powerful 6.5 earthquake that rocked northwestern China on Monday. One other victim was hospitalised in critical condition. The quake hit sparsely populated Qinghai province about 150 kilometres (93 miles) northeast of the city of Golmud. The quake shook buildings hundreds of kilometres away and sent people fleeing into the streets. A 5.0-magnitude aftershock rattled the region two and a half hours later.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - The Bathurst Bay hurricane of 1899 wreaked unparalleled destruction on the east coast of Australia, killing about 350 people and destroying every one of the 100 ships moored in Princess Charlotte Bay on Cape York. In its aftermath dolphins were found wedged 15m up cliffs, sharks were washed 40km inland, human bodies and ships' wreckage formed long drifts in the ocean and on beaches. But coastal dwellers may soon face even more catastrophic storms, due to the combined effects of climate change and long-term oscillations in Australia's weather. A project highlighting long-term patterns in the coastal climate, with periods of drought lasting several decades alternating with similar-length periods of increased storm activity, believes the weather is now in transition from the underlying drought that has been with them since the mid-1970s to a stormier outlook that, when combined with rising sea levels associated with climate change, will "whack us in the face" with dramatic changes to the Australian coastline. "The coast is going to move in for centuries. This is bigger than a few retaining walls. We will be moving inland." The researcher sold his beachfront home 10 years ago and moved "up on to solid rock", but he believes 30 years of relatively storm-free weather has lulled most into a false sense of security. The Gold Coast, parts of the Sunshine Coast and many NSW coastal towns are at particularly high risk.

Inland Ants Crave Salt, and Hurricanes May Help - Salt-deprived animals and insects living far inland from some coasts may benefit if global warming increases hurricane intensity, a new study suggests.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Correcting Ocean Cooling - Scientists revise their conclusion that the ocean has cooled since 2003. Research showed that the world’s oceans gained heat in the decade from 1993 to 2003. However, a follow-up study for the years 2003 to 2005 showed a surprisingly large decrease in heat content — about 5 times as large as the previous decade’s warming. Researchers initially interpreted the cooling as a temporary fluctuation, a “speed bump” on the road to global warming. But the apparent large drop in temperature was due to bad data from the measuring devices, and it disappeared when errors in these data sets were corrected. Rising sea level is one of the most serious consequences of global warming. In the past 50 years, sea level rose about 1.8 (plus or minus 0.3) millimeters a year. Satellite observations since 1993 indicate the pace has accelerated to about 3 millimeters per year. Researchers have found that ocean heating was larger than scientists previously thought, and so the contribution of thermal expansion to sea level rise was actually 50 percent larger than previous estimates.

INDIA - the Western Ghats have been noticing a change in forest pattern and more recently, significant changes in honeybee breeding. Unpredictable rainfall is leading to many evergreen patches turning deciduous or seasonal. Last year, due to excess rainfall, bee-keeping was affected with a 60% loss and the honey they managed to get was low quality. This year again, the season is too dry, which the activists fear will affect bee-breeding significantly. Some flower species that are supposed to bloom in February are now flowering in December and often, November. These include the species on which bees thrive. "Species like Matti and Hunal that help honey bees thrive, were severely impacted last year. They need sunlight to flower but last year, the rain took over and this year, there is almost no rain since August. This will impact the bees drastically. WEATHER HAS BECOME UNPREDICTABLE and is leading to a change in forest pattern as well."

ETHIOPIA - all eyes there are on crucial harvests starting about now - of wheat, maize, barley and teff - which are almost certain to have been damaged in unseasonal heavy rain. The paradox of Ethiopia's food crisis is that as the eastern and southern lowlands suffer an acute drought, which is forecast to worsen in 2009, parts of the central highlands - including the capital - have seen torrential downpours almost daily, causing lethal flash-floods in places. What both parts of the country have in common is that FAMILIAR WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE GONE HAYWIRE, making life especially difficult for subsistence farmers and pastoralists.

SPACE WEATHER-
New Sunspot Cycle Begins - In January 2008, satellite imagery showed the beginnings of Solar Cycle 24. Sunspot activity remained minimal in the months that followed, as it had for the previous year, but at the end of October 2008, another batch of sunspots appeared, most of them belonging to the new cycle. The peak of Solar Cycle 24 is still years away.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
Nestle is withdrawing Nestle Farinha Lactea cereal in the United States because the product may contain residual traces of a pesticide not currently approved for use on wheat in the U.S.
Nestle USA Voluntarily Recalled Two Production Codes of Nestle Nesquik Strawberry Powder.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008 -

Use your enemy's hand to catch a snake.
Persian Proverb

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/10/08 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 MYANMAR
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.1 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
6.5 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA

PAKISTAN - An aftershock measuring 4.0 on the Richter scale hit Ziarat and adjoining areas at 5:46am on Sunday. No loss of life was reported, although the tremor panicked people who came out of their houses. More than 1,300 aftershocks have been recorded in Ziarat and adjoining areas since the October 29 earthquake in parts of Balochistan.

VOLCANOES -
ECUADOR - Technicians are monitoring a volcano east of the Ecuadorian capital that has been spewing lava and smoke. Ecuador's El Reventador volcano, 100 kilometres from Quito in the province of Napo, has been letting off moderate explosions. But despite the increased activity, Ecuador's Geophysics Institute says there is no immanent danger to citizens. Experts say there are no signs of this activity resembling that of 2002, when El Reventador erupted, leaving a thick cloud of ash covering the Ecuadorean capital. (video)

COLUMBIA - Volcanoes Machín in Tolima and the Nevado de Huila in the south of Colombia became active over the weekend. Hundreds of families that live in the area surrounding the volcanoes had to be evacuated. Seismologists in Manizales measured intense activity of the Machín volcano and immediately called on the authorities to evacuate the surrounding villages. Approximately 500 people were taken from their home. Authorities declared a yellow state of alert in the area. The Machín is considered the potentially most dangerous volcano in the country. There have been small eruptions of lava, but there were no reported injuries.
The Nevado de Huila volcano, which has been active a number of times this year already, showed so much seismic activity this weekend that authorities decided to declare a state of orange alert, meaning that an eruption can be expected in a period of days or weeks.
Michín volcano - The volcano’s crater is covered with an immense dome and more than 20 thousand people inhabit this land in the south of the state of Tolima. The magnitude of Machín is one of the greatest of the volcanoes of the area, and therefore a possible eruption would cause a gigantic emergency.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

An UNUSUAL atmospheric disturbance over the Bay of Bengal with signs of developing into a virtual cyclone is being monitored by the Meteorological Department in Sri Lanka. Heavy rain and thunder showers might occur in several parts of the island, especially in the North and East during the next 24 hours and the department will issue an early warning in case of cyclonic conditions developing. The Indian media Sunday reported an upper air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal with signs of this condition moving towards Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula but it now appears to be moving towards the South Andaman Sea.

Tropical depression Quinta, originally forecast to move northward towards Vietnam, has re-entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility due to a high pressure area in the South China Sea. “Quinta” has maintained its strength as it moved slowly south-southwestward while another low pressure area or a brewing storm was sighted near Cagayan. Packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center, Quinta is forecast to move south southwest at 7 kilometers per hour. Quinta is not expected to strengthen and make landfall. No storm warning signal has been raised. However, North and Central Luzon provinces, including Metro Manila, will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms which might trigger landslides and flashfloods. By this morning, Quinta is forecast to be at 480 kilometers southwest of Iba, Zambales and is expected to be at 660 kilometers southwest of Iba, Zambales by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the low pressure area was sighted 170 kilometers east southeast of Aparri, but it will not intensify into a tropical depression since it is near land.

PALOMA became the second strongest ever November storm since records began in 1851. Packing winds of 140 miles per hour, Paloma pounded the Cayman Islands on Saturday, knocking out power across much of Grand Cayman, and blowing off roofs, damaging homes and causing flooding in Cayman Brac. Over in Cuba, where more than half a million people had been evacuated from low-lying areas, Paloma roared ashore the coastal community of Santa Cruz del Sur, its powerful waves destroying hundreds of homes. It quickly weakened to a tropical storm after passing the coast, but not before interrupting electricity and phone services and toppling a major communications tower.
Over the weekend, Hurricane Paloma set another of those records that sends chills down spines in the Caribbean - for the FIRST TIME MAJOR HURRICANES FORMED IN FIVE SUCCESSIVE MONTHS, from July through November. And the total energy carried by storms this year is double that of last year. The hurricane season in the north Atlantic officially runs from June to the end of November. The odd storm may blow up in May or December, but usually the most storms and the strongest ones come from mid-August to mid-October. By early November, residents of hurricane-prone areas usually can relax. Not this year. Paloma formed as a tropical depression off Nicaragua on Wednesday morning, and reached tropical storm strength Thursday. That night it reached hurricane strength, and then turned northeast toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba. It peaked at Category 4 strength on Saturday. Only one other storm has been recorded at Category 4 in November, Hurricane Lenny the 12th and final tropical storm of 1999. Only three years had more tropical storms than this year.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDONESIA - More than 6,000 homes in North Samarinda district, East Kalimantan, were flooded Monday as week-long heavy rains hit the area. Separately, 19 sand-mining trucks in Gendol River, Cangkringan, Sleman, Yogyakarta, were trapped in a mudslide Sunday evening as heavy rains in the hilly areas around Mt. Merapi caused a heavy flow of volcanic debris and mud down the mountain and along Gendol River.

THAILAND - Chaiyaphum hit by flood for a third time this week - The water in the Chi River has sustained at a high level and overflowed into surrounding residential areas and farms with no signs of reducing. The flood waters have hit Ban Khwao district for the third time in a week. Schools in the district have temporarily closed and residents have evacuated livestock and pets. Several major roads have been cut off. This third flood is the most major in the province this year and has caused damage to 30,000 rai of rice fields which are about to be harvested. Flood waters are expected to remain in the district for at least one more week and will flow into Khon Sawan district before making way to Khon Kaen province.

SOUTH AFRICA - Heavy rain causes havoc - Officials of the Mangaung local municipality were on Monday assessing the damage to hundreds of houses in Botshabelo caused by heavy rain and strong winds over the past 24 hours. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - In San Diego, by Thursday yet another Santa Ana event will arrive. The National Weather Service is warning that this could be a bad one, with strong, gusting winds and extremely low humidity levels. Officials also said this Santa Ana could stick around for three, maybe even four days. As a result, the fire danger will be elevated and could be rated critical by Friday. "Now, if it seems like we've had more than our share of Santa Anas and heat waves this year, it's not your imagination. There were three last month, and this week's will be the 14th of the year - so far. Weather experts know what's causing the frequent bouts of above-normal temperatures: upper-level high-pressure systems developing out over Utah and Nevada. However, nobody knows why the systems have been occurring with such regularity. Another interesting weather phenomenon taking place: Even with all the heat, our overall temperature has been about normal on average, because in between the heat waves, the area has experienced periods during which temperatures have been well below normal. Again, this weather roller coaster is UNUSUAL for San Diego, and nobody knows exactly why it's happening. Climatologists predict more of the same for the rest of fall and this coming winter, saying to expect near-normal seasonal averages for temperatures and below-normal amounts of rainfall. This is not good news when, like San Diego, you're in the midst of a serious drought."

Monday, November 10, 2008 -

There can be no real individual freedom in the presence of economic insecurity.
Chester Bowles

QUAKES -
This morning there has been a 6.5 quake in NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA. There have been no reports of deaths or injuries. The epicentre of the quake was 161 km (101 miles) north-northeast of Golmud. Some mud houses in Da Qaidam, near the epicenter, had cracks in their walls and a few huts had collapsed. Schools have also been closed.

Largest quakes yesterday -
11/9/08 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Super storms 'will wash away coast' - Australia's east coast faces UNPRECEDENTED erosion within the next decade, heading into a storm period made worse by climate change, research predicts. The seven-year study suggests sandy coasts, such as those in southeast Queensland, northern New South Wales and parts of Sydney are most at risk of major erosion as storms and high tides hit. Research suggests storm periods have been cyclical over the past 200 years and Australia, having experienced its last major storm period in the 1970s, is due for another. "It's likely that within 10 years Australia will see erosion THAT HASN'T BEEN OBSERVED IN EUROPEAN HISTORY BEFORE. It's going to cut the coast further inland and it will be more severe than past stormy periods because of the underlying climate change and subsequent sea rises. Improving emergency planning is important because when the event hits, we'll have very little warning and unless we're set up for it, it'll be a disaster much like Katrina was (in the US)." The last storm period wreaked havoc on parts of the eastern coast. "Storms hit the coast with the energy of a nuclear explosion, moving thousands of tonnes of sand in a short period of time and affecting large areas."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression MAYSAK was 223 nmi WNW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical depression PALOMA was 173 nmi WNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Maysak hovered over the western region of the South China Sea on Sunday. The storm will turn from its northerly path and head southwestward as it decreases in strength to a tropical depression with 35 mph (56 kph) winds. Thus, strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf were expected along the coast of Vietnam.

PHILIPPINES - Ten locals are confirmed dead and an undetermined number remain missing when huge waves brought by Tropical Depression "Quinta" ripped at least three passenger pumpboats off Concepcion, Iloilo. Several other pumpboats reportedly were damaged as well by the huge waves. The town and surrounding island-villages were rendered powerless due to strong winds.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
RUSSIA - Power supply restored in seven Sakhalin locations as cyclone moves on to Iturup - There is still no power supply in 40 towns and villages, as a cyclone has torn off dozens of kilometers of power line wire and uprooted over 200 wooden and concrete power line pylons. The power line problem apparently was because of sleet. The state of emergency regime is in effect in seven Sakhalin districts. The situation is the worst in the Tymovo district. There is no telephone contact with six villages. The cyclone paralyzed the Vanino-Kholmsk cargo ferry line. Four ferries took shelter close to the Khabarovsk territorial shore, as waves in the Tatar Strait were six meters high. The Captain Fyodorov towboat and a large barge ran aground offshore the Sovgavan seaport on Saturday. Six crewmembers of the towboat were rescued. The cyclone eye has moved onto the Kuril Island of Iturup.

KENYA - A landslide triggered by torrential rains killed at least eleven people in western Kenya on Saturday. Another 20 were injured. There were two separate incidents in a village at Chepkope location in Chesegon division of Pokot Central district. The landslides followed a heavy downpour that has hit the area in the recent past, destroying vegetation and loosening the soil.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

A warmer planet could find itself more often at war. The Earth’s fast-changing climate has a range of serious thinkers — from military brass to geographers to diplomats — predicting a spate of armed conflicts driven by the weather. Shifting temperatures lead to shifting populations, they say, and that throws together groups with longstanding rivalries and thrusts them into competition for food and water. Four reports predict starkly similar problems: gunfire over land and natural resources as once-bountiful soil turns to desert and coastlines slip below the sea. They also expect violent storms to unsettle weak governments and set up dispirited radicals in revolt. Flooding of coastal areas — particularly in South Asia and the United States — will force severe migration and alter regional and even national identities. Security analysts say profound dangers are just years, not decades, away. They already see evidence of societies at odds.

Current warming SHARPEST CLIMATE CHANGE IN 5,000 YEARS - Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday. Researchers studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species. The team described "major ecosystem reorganization" - or "regime shift" - in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia. "The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is UNPRECEDENTED in human history." They have found "extensive" shifts in the geographic range of numerous plant and animal species.

Sunday, November 9, 2008 -

We have, in fact, two kinds of morality side by side:
one which we preach but do not practice,
and another which we practice but seldom preach.
Bertrand Russell

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/8/08 -
5.3 TONGA
5.9 TONGA
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA
11/7/08 -
6.1 BANDA SEA
5.1 VANUATU
5.7 VANUATU
5.4 VANUATU
5.4 VANUATU
6.5 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 GUAM REGION

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - The Alaska Volcano Observatory has changed the volcano alert level for Redoubt Volcano to advisory, with an aviation code level of yellow. AVO said it changed the alert level due to changes in gas emission and heat output from the volcano about 82 miles west of Kenai in Lake Clark National Park on the west side of Cook Inlet. The recent changes are different from background activity. "There is no indication that an eruption is imminent or even certain." AVO said it would expect a dramatic increase in seismicity before another explosive eruption. Starting in July, field crews working near the volcano summit smelled hydrogen sulfide gas. In September, a pilot flying nearby also reported smelling hydrogen sulfide. The gas smells might indicate new magma entering chambers under Redoubt. Satellite images taken on Oct. 13 showed increased warming. Observers on flights over Redoubt also reported seeing bare, steaming rock, including a 150-foot wide melt hole on the Drift Glacier. Seismographs on Redoubt have shown a modest increase in low-frequency earthquakes, suggesting that if new magma has entered the volcanic system, it is still deep. The main hazards at this time are from steam explosions on the summit, noxious gas plumes, ice- and ice-rock-water avalanches on Drift Glacier, and increased water flow on Drift River.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm MAYSAK was 246 nmi WNW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Tropical storm PALOMA was 173 nmi WNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Hurricane Paloma has caused destruction in Cuba, flooding coastal areas, downing power lines and forcing the evacuation of half a million people. But the former Category Four hurricane weakened to a tropical storm as it prepared to head towards the Bahamas. Paloma is the fifth hurricane this season to hit Cuba. The storms have caused billions of dollars worth of damage, destroying thousands of homes. Paloma has already caused heavy rains and storm surges in the Cayman Islands. The small island of Cayman Brac, to the east of Grand Cayman, has suffered "island-wide damage". "Probably 90 to 95% of homes and buildings have been damaged. Some have been totally devastated."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Tropical waves usually move from east to west, but in the early 1970s two fellows discovered a wave of tropical origin that moved from west to east. Over the past 35 years the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been further studied and refined. It operates as a 40 to 50 day cycle involving tropical thunderstorm activity which originates over particularly warm ocean waters in the western Pacific or north Indian Ocean. The storms then propagate eastward. This wave of precipitation would begin curving northward once it reached the Hawaiian Islands. It later became known as the “pineapple express” and could dump copious amounts of rain in the west. It is the wildcard in any rainy season for the west coast of the U.S. and something that can not be forecast deep into the future. The MJO just pops up one day way out near Asia and starts moving in their direction.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA warned on Wednesday that it faces more warmer weather, more extreme climate events and more severe drought in the future. “Extreme climate phenomena, such as high temperatures, heavy rain and snow and severe droughts, have increased in frequency and intensity.” The average temperature of Earth’s surface in China has risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius from 1908 to 2007. But China admitted that it was difficult to control greenhouse gas emissions because of the ongoing industrialization process and its coal-dominated energy mix. “To advance further towards its development objective, China will strive for a rational growth of energy demand. The coal-dominated energy mix cannot be substantially changed in the near future, thus making the control of greenhouse gas emissions rather difficult.” The sea level will rise faster than ever, it also warned.

AUSTRALIA - The Treasurer insists that the global financial crisis makes tackling climate change a priority, while the Treasury warns that nations that delay will pay more in the long run to tackle the problem. Treasury modelling says the cost to the economy of starting an emissions trading scheme without delay would be 15 per cent less by 2050 than the cost of waiting "for the world to act together". The global financial crisis is the consequence of a "poorly designed and laxly regulated" market that was vulnerable to abuse, unnecessarily unstable and ultimately ineffective. "While sometimes in the face of upheaval it feels safe to bunker down without facing the other challenges swirling around us, the current crisis means that if we see systemic challenges to our prosperity, we must address them bravely and decisively. That's why despite the crisis, despite the upheaval going on around us, we're continuing with our reform agenda." "To backslide on climate change would hasten greater economic turmoil than we have witnessed over the past few weeks." "Failure to act - right now - would be a failure of leadership on a scale we have never seen; a failure of courage, of vision. It would fail our business, our economy, our environment, our future."

SPACE WEATHER -
CANADA - Sinkhole is crater - What local hunters in Whitecourt thought for years was a sinkhole is actually the crater left behind by a meteor that fell to earth 1,000 years ago and is now attracting international attention from researchers. The crater is 36 metres wide and six metres deep, which is small as far as most craters go. At an estimated 1,000 years old, it is also one of the youngest craters in the world. The second-youngest crater in Canada, located in Quebec, is 1.2 million years old. The meteor, primarily iron, was probably formed very early in the life of the solar system by the same process that formed the earth's core. Researchers have so far found 74 different pieces of the original meteor scattered around the crater, some up to 70 metres away.

Friday, November 7, 2008 -

"Never give in, never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty,
never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.
Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy".
Winston Churchill

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
11/6/08 -
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.9 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.2 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES

In the last 16 years, St. Kitts/Nevis experienced an UNPRECEDENTED amount of earthquakes, mainly attributed by the Caribbean plate boundary, situated just north of Puerto Rico and just east of most of the Caribbean Islands. An earthquake felt on Nevis Sunday at approximately 4:05 a.m. local time was consistent with a tectonic event and was not linked to volcanic activity.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - It's been nearly 25 years since Mauna Loa, Hawaii's most dangerous volcano, last erupted — but researchers warn that another eruption may be on the horizon. Two bulges are grwoing on the flanks of Mauna Loa. The lumps indicate subterranean magma pressing against the surface. Researchers reported last year that the bump on the southwestern side of the mountain had risen eight inches (20 centimeters) in just three years. It's nearly impossible to pinpoint the exact date or time the mountain may blow next, but a new technology allows scientists to determine the eruption's location on the slopes of the giant volcano, thereby helping them determine where the lava it spews will go. Mauna Loa, the largest volcano on Earth, is a so-called shield volcano, which means that lava can rush either from its central crater or its slopes—and in some eruptions from both. If lava shoots out of Mauna Loa's southern or northern rifts, two neighboring villages are at risk of being scorched. When it last erupted in 1984, rivers of fiery-hot lava flooded the northeastern side of the mountain, stopping just short of the island of Hawaii's largest city, Hilo (population: approximately 150,000). For the last few years, Mauna Loa has been inflating at slow rates.
Kilauea volcano - Since March 12, "sulfur dioxide emissions from a new gas vent in Halemaumau Crater have affected residents with respiratory problems, caused voluntary evacuations, and caused significant damage to agricultural farms and ranches. The emissions have also caused concern for the long-term effects on health, water quality and agriculture."

ETHIOPIA - The Dalla Filla volcano in a remote area of northeastern Ethiopia erupted this week, spewing lava over tens of square miles in THE BIGGEST VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE COUNTRY'S RECORDED HISTORY. Ethiopian researchers working with scientists in the U.K. first detected the eruption on Nov. 3. Officials have been sent to the Afar region to investigate the explosion, which was of a similar magnitude to eruptions of Mount Etna in Italy in May. "We have NEVER HEARD OF ANYONE OBSERVING ANYTHING LIKE THIS HERE. People heard loud noises and explosions from a distance and saw smoke and felt the ground shake." It's the third eruption in Ethiopia's Afar region since 2005. A number of the world's best-known fossils have been discovered in Afar, including one of the earliest ancestors of man, known as Lucy.

RUSSIA - Shiveluch, Russia's northernmost active volcano, is emitting ash to a height of 4000 meters (13000 feet). Shiveluch, on the Kamchatka Peninsula, last erupted in December 2006 and has been active ever since with the volcano spewing out gas and ash up to 8,000 meters (26,000 feet). The local seismological service reported registering nearly 170 tremors within the area in the past 24 hours. According to specialists, the volcanic activity over the past two-three years has significantly altered the contour of the volcano with the crater increasing in size by 50% and the slopes becoming far steeper than previously. The volcanic eruption poses no threat to Kamchatka settlements, although the clouds of volcanic ash are causing problems for air traffic.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane PALOMA was 178 nmi NE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.
Tropical storm TWENTYFOUR was 145 nmi SW of Subic Bay, Philippines.

Category One Hurricane Paloma - the 16th tropical storm of the Atlantic storm season and the eighth hurricane - The Cayman Island, Jamaica and Cuba are on alert as Hurricane Paloma heads north with winds of up to 75mph. Paloma "continues to rapidly organise" and additional strengthening is likely, with the storm predicted to become a Category Two hurricane today. Heavy rainfall has already been reported in Honduras and Nicaragua.

Northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity LOWEST IN 30 YEARS - while North Atlantic activity is above normal this year, overall the hemisphere is experiencing considerably fewer than normal storms. "Upon examination of all tropical cyclone activity in the basins throughout the Northern Hemisphere for the past 2 years, a remarkable downward trend in cyclone energy has continued and reached historic levels of inactivity."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
The demise of some of China's ruling dynasties was linked to changes in the strength of monsoon rains - the rains that water crops to feed millions of people in Asia. Weak - and therefore dry - monsoon periods coincided with the demise of the Tang, Yuan and Ming imperial dynasties. "Summer monsoon winds originate in the Indian Ocean and sweep into China. When the summer monsoon is stronger, it pushes farther north-west into China." These moisture-laden winds bring rain necessary for cultivating rice. But when the monsoon is weak, the rains stall farther south and east, depriving northern and western parts of China of summer rains. This could have led to poor rice harvests and civil unrest. A dry period between 850AD and 940AD coincides not only with the decline of the Chinese Tang dynasty but also with the fall of the Mayan civilization in America. The monsoon record also matched up nicely with the advance and retreat of Swiss glaciers. The monsoon followed trends in solar activity over many centuries, suggesting the Sun played an important role in the variability of this weather system. To a lesser extent, it also followed northern hemisphere temperatures on a millennial and centennial scale. As temperatures went up, the monsoon became stronger and, as they dropped, it weakened. However, over the last 50 years, this relationship has switched. The researchers attribute this to the influence of greenhouse gas emissions and sulphate aerosols released by human activities. Climate change can have devastating effects on local populations - even when this change is mild when averaged across the globe.

HONDURAS - Intense rains and a cold front in recent weeks have hit 600,000 people and left 34 dead and 16 missing. Flooding in all but one of Honduras' 18 provinces has destroyed 80 percent of roads and nearly 8500 homes. Authorities estimate total damages at $154 million.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NORTH & SOUTH DAKOTA - The season's first major blizzard pounded the Dakotas and parts of Wyoming and Nebraska on Thursday with more than 3 feet of snow and winds nearing 80 mph. Schools were shut down, highways closed and power was out across the region. The storm also closed Interstate 80 in eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

While the world's economy will doubtless bounce back at some point from the financial shock, mankind will not be able to bounce back from the climate shock. The damage is becoming irreparable and the consequences are terrifying – rising sea levels, spreading disease and environmental refuges on an unimaginable scale." The Prince of Wales has delivered an impassioned plea for the world to unite in the fight against the "terrifying" effects of climate change.