May & June 2009 Natural Disasters

Tuesday, June 30, 2009 -

Today you may throw stones (unless you live in a glass house) - it's National Meteor Day.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/29/09 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.2 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

VOLCANOES -
People across the U.S. and Europe have been reporting UNUSUAL SUNSETS, possibly the result of the June 12 eruption of Russia's Sarychev Peak volcano. The eruption sent plumes of sulfur dioxide and other debris into the atmosphere, which spread to the United States and Europe. When the sun goes down, delicate ripples of white appear over the western horizon. Then, as the twilight deepens, the sky turns a telltale shade of "volcanic lavender." Earth-orbiting satellites are monitoring Sarychev's sulfur dioxide plume as it circumnavigates the globe at high latitudes, spreading the phenomenon from Russia to the USA to Europe and back again. All northern sky watchers should be alert for volcanic sunsets.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

BANGLADESH - One month after cyclone Aila struck Bangladesh and the eastern Indian state of West Bengal, people continue to suffer from ongoing floods during high tide. Shelter, drinking water, food and sanitation are badly needed. People in remote areas have reportedly still not received any help. Around 75,000 people in Bangladesh and 15,000 people in India are affected by the aftermath of the cyclone. The floodwater destroyed houses, livestock, shrimp farms and agricultural lands. People live in makeshift shelters on the remaining parts of the embankments. Some villages continue to get flooded twice a day during high tide. “People are up to their necks in the water. Houses are either destroyed or flooded, most people can’t sleep dry. With the monsoon arriving very soon, shelter is one of the main priorities."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne suffers DRIEST YEAR SINCE 1969. Melbourne has endured its driest first half of the year in more than four decades, with just 126.2mm of rain falling from January to June.

SPACE WEATHER -
Space rocks that explode in the atmosphere are now classified. - For 15 years, scientists have benefited from data gleaned by U.S. classified satellites of natural fireball events in Earth's atmosphere – but no longer. A recent U.S. military policy decision now explicitly states that observations by hush-hush government spacecraft of incoming bolides and fireballs are classified secret and are not to be released. The satellites' main objectives include detecting nuclear bomb tests, and their characterizations of asteroids and lesser meteoroids as they crash through the atmosphere has been a byproduct data bonanza for scientists. "It's baffling to us why this would suddenly change," said one scientist familiar with the work. "It's unfortunate because there was this great synergy...a very good cooperative arrangement. Systems were put into dual-use mode where a lot of science was getting done that couldn't be done any other way. It's a regrettable change in policy." Scientists say not only will research into the threat from space be hampered, but public understanding of sometimes dramatic sky explosions will be diminished, perhaps leading to hype and fear of the unknown. Over the last decade or so, hundreds of these events have been spotted by the classified satellites. Because the world is two-thirds ocean, most incoming objects aren't visible to observers on the ground. Many other incoming space rocks go unnoticed because daylight drowns them out. In the shaky world we now live, it's nice to know that a sky-high detonation is natural versus a nuclear weapon blast. "The fireball data from military or surveillance assets have been of critical importance for assessing the impact hazard." Fireball information played an important part in the story of the small asteroid 2008 TC3. That was the first-ever case of the astronomical detection of a small asteroid before it hit earth in Sudan last year. The fireball data were key for locating the impact point and the subsequent recovery of fragments from this impact. It is ironic that the availability of these fireball data should be curtailed just at the time the NEO program is moving toward surveying the small impactors that are most likely to be picked up in the fireball monitoring program.
Asteroids are the single greatest threat to an individual's life, once averaged out over sufficient time scale. For example, an asteroid that could, say, wipe out just half of earth's population (say, 2.5 billion people) stikes once every X years. So the annual death rate from that size of asteriod is 2.5 billion/X. Combine that with smaller asteroids, and asteroids on a yearly average will kill more people than earthquakes, tornadoes, etc.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Airline passengers imported H1N1 from Mexico - Airline industry data show a high correlation between the start of the H1N1 flu pandemic in various countries and the number of passengers from Mexico that tend to arrive in those countries in March and April. Of the 20 countries that had the highest passenger volume from Mexico in 2007 and 2008, 16 experienced importations of H1N1 from Mexico in 2009; countries that had more than 1,400 such passengers had a "significantly elevated" risk of flu importation.

HHS extends liability shield to antivirals used for H1N1 - The Department of Health and Human Services recently provided a shield against damage claims related to the use of the antiviral drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) in the current H1N1 influenza pandemic. Protections are already in place for the two antivirals when used against H5N1 influenza and for vaccines for H5N1 and other potential pandemic flu strains, among other drugs and vaccines. The impulse for PREP Act liability protections has come primarily from the manufacturers of the relevant products. The oseltamivir protection measure was said to not be related to the reports, mainly from Japan, of abnormal behavior in some adolescents who were given the drug.

Monday, June 29, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"No one knows the truth. No one knows what, or who, I am.
And the longer it takes them to discover this, the more famous I will be."
Michael Jackson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/28/09 -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 TAIWAN
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

TAIWAN - As many as 18 earthquakes struck the eastern county of Hualien yesterday, with the tremors ranging from 3.8 to 5.6 on the Richter Scale. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage. The pattern of the earthquakes was a RARE TYPE, with several foreshocks occurring before a main quake takes place and followed by some aftershocks. The strongest quake was felt throughout the island, causing buildings to sway in the capital Taipei. The center points of most of the earthquakes were less than one kilometer away from each other.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - At least 18 people, including six children, were killed after they were struck by lightning in the east Indian state of Bihar.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRITAIN is in the grip of a heatwave with parts of the country sweltering to the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THREE YEARS - and forecasters predicted the heat will continue.

NORWAY - Southern Norway is in its second week of a heatwave, with daytime temperatures up around 30C, and the Met Office has issued forest fire warnings for the whole region south of Trondheim, and in particular in the east. On Sunday the maximum temperature at the Met Office in Oslo was measured at 31.3C, and the forecast says there will be more of the same the whole week, possibly interspersed with a few cooling thundershowers here and there in the afternoon. Beaches are crowded, and there have unfortunately been a few fatal drowning accidents this past weekend.

INDIA - A blistering heatwave in the Indian capital of New Delhi has triggered RECORD POWER AND WATER SHORTAGES, leading to widespread demonstrations. Thousands of angry protesters have blocked roads and attacked the offices of electricity companies. Dozens of people have died from heat stroke as temperatures soar and residents endure power cuts for up to 12 hours a day. The capital has recorded its highest ever demand for electricity and the system has been unable to cope. Many others have been without regular water supplies for almost a week. Some middle class residents have been sleeping in their air-conditioned cars each night to escape the heat. Temperatures in the mid-40s have gone on and on, crippling the city's infrastructure. Yesterday, Delhi's Chief Minister called an emergency meeting with power suppliers. She admits there has been a complete breakdown and the situation is grim.
Hit by drought for the fourth successive year and fed up of the government’s apathy to their woes, thousands of farmers of Chhattarpur block in Jharkhand’s Palamau district have launched a signature campaign seeking “mercy killing” from the President. “In the 2006 drought, farmers sold their bullock cart, goats and other things. In 2007, we sold our piece of land. In the 2008 drought, we were forced to sell the jewellery of our wives. Now what should we sell in the 2009 drought. Should we sell ourselves? We may have been deprived to lead a respectable life but we should be allowed a respectable death." “Chhattarpur block farmers are facing successive drought since 2006. This area lacks basic facilities like irrigation, health facilities, food security. Our crops were destroyed due to scanty rainfall and we did not get crop insurance money.” Besides drawing attention to basic things unavailable in the area, the letter also expresses unhappiness over the indifferent attitude of the government officials towards pending irrigation projects. The governor said, “The government is serious about addressing the concerns of the farmers and no one will be allowed to die due to the drought.” Chhattarpur block, one of the most backward areas of Jharkhand, is facing a drought-like situation this year too. The monsoon is yet to arrive in the state. Palamau region, which falls under the rain shadow area, has been declared drought-hit for five years. The maximum temperature in Palamau has been recorded at 46.2 degrees Celsius (115.6 Fahrenheit) this year.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
ARGENTINA may cease wheat exports for first time due to drought. Heavy rains aren't expected to break Argentina's WORST DROUGHT IN 70 YEARS until September, which is the beginning of spring in the southern Hemisphere.

UGANDA - Famine has started claiming lives in various parts of the country. Families are starving in the hardest hit areas, with people dying as a result. People are losing weight because of the hunger. The Government was 'aware of the food shortage, but waited for people to die'. Enrollment in schools had dropped by half due to the persistent hunger. About three million people are food insecure. The problem was attributed to climate change. “In some areas rainfall was below normal and came late. This caused stress to crops that had already been planted." Some wondered why the Government had not started an irrigation scheme. The region has depended on food relief since 1964. The Government was accused of not dealing with the real problem. “This is fire fighting. We are treating symptoms. Is that disaster preparedness? Uganda was known as a food basket in the region."

HEALTH THREATS -
The latest global number of new pandemic flu cases is 70,893 cases, including 311 deaths. The new total is an 11,079-case rise from the WHO's last update on Jun 26. The once-weekly update of US cases represents more than half of the new cases. The number of fatalities rose by 48 since the last report. The list includes four countries reporting their first cases: Iraq, Lithuania, Monaco, and Nepal.

Swine flu 'shows drug resistance' - Scientists have established the first case of the new H1N1 influenza strain showing resistance to Tamiflu, the main antiviral flu drug.

The Norwegian health authorities will this fall begin a program of mass vaccination against the A H1N1 flu, also called the swine flu. A total of 9.4 million doses have been ordered from the suppliers. All will be given two innoculations, two weeks apart. So far, only 23 cases of the flu have been diagnosed in Norway, but the authorities expect that the number will increase.

The pandemic vaccine now being produced for the U.S. will require two shots 3 weeks apart to provide full immunity, which could overwhelm state agencies. And children younger than 9 years old will need four shots. "Public health departments are underfunded and will get fatigued." One shot will give at most 20% protection.

Sunday, June 28, 2009 -

You can't fix the global financial meltdown quickly just by throwing lots of money at it,
just like "you can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."
Warren Buffett

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/27/09 -
5.6 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
6/25/09 -
5.0 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
5.3 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

A tropical wave hovering over the far northwest Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical depression and South Florida could feel its effects, the National Hurricane Center reported Saturday morning. The wave, currently producing thunderstorms from Cuba west to the Yucatan Peninsula, has a 30 to 50 percent chance of developing into a formal system by Monday morning. A better-organized storm could send heavy rains over South Florida. Should the wave develop into a tropical storm, it would be the first named Atlantic storm of the year.

The first hurricane of the season in the eastern Pacific briefly flared up off Mexico last week, drenching resorts and coastal communities from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta. Andres attained hurricane strength for only a few hours, then began to gradually weaken as it remained well off the coast. It eventually dissipated southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Its appearance marked THE LATEST DATE THAT A NAMED STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN 40 YEARS.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TASMANIA - Flooding developed across eastern Tasmania on Friday as the HEAVIEST JUNE RAIN IN DECADES finally broke the drought which has ravaged the region over the past few years. In the 24 hours to 9am on Friday between 25 and 50mm of rain fell over most of eastern and southern Tasmania, but heavier falls of over 50mm fell in the region around Hobart with 137mm recorded at Nugent, their HEAVIEST RAIN IN OVER 24YEARS. West of Hobart, Grove recorded 71mm, their HEAVIEST FALL IN 11 YEARS and HEAVIEST JUNE FALL IN AT LEAST 55 YEARS. Eastern Tasmania has now received between 100 and 200mm of rain so far this month, around triple the long term average. Mt Wellington's 114mm lifted their monthly total to 365mm, making June 2009 their WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD. Hobart is up to 141mm, their WETTEST MONTH SINCE 1996. The rain is the result of an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN which has seen extended periods of easterly winds over Tasmania this month, as opposed to the typical westerly flow. An extended period of westerly winds looks set to return by today, shifting rain back to the western side of island.

NEVADA - Mother Nature is blowing away the old wives' tale that it has to get really hot and dry in Arizona for the monsoon weather pattern to kick in. Despite the UNUSUALLY CLOUDY weather over the past month and UNUSUALLY COOL June temperatures - several Northern Arizona natives said they've NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT - the monsoon flow pattern has arrived. "This is a monsoon pattern. This is the flow we look for when moisture moves into Arizona. It's a little early, but not unusual." In general terms, the wind now is coming out of the south and a large-scale high-pressure system has shifted to the north. Officially, starting this past year, the National Weather Service says the North American monsoon occurs between June 15 and Sept. 30. Actual monsoon storms tend to start hitting the Prescott region around the Fourth of July. The Weather Service has been tracking the recent unusually cool and wet weather in larger Arizona cities that have detailed weather records. Flagstaff set a record for cold weather earlier this month when its temperatures stayed below 70 degrees every day between June 5 and June 16. The 12-day stretch shattered the previous June record of eight days in 1932 and 1951. The records go back to 1898. "The unseasonably cool weather was the result of southwesterly flow from the East Pacific driven by a persistent West Coast trough of low pressure." Prescott ended up with 0.93 inches of rain in May, which is 198 percent of the 111-year May average of 0.47 inches. Despite the frequent cloud cover, it also was UNUSUALLY WARM. An El Niño pattern now setting up in the Pacific could bring a wet winter if it's strong enough. It is UNUSUAL for El Niño to start setting up this early in the year. It could affect the monsoon patterns toward the second half of the season.

MARYLAND - Muggy weather brings out UNUSUAL late swarms of termites. As if the mosquitoes weren't bad enough, the rainy weather in recent weeks has also brought out another insect pest - swarming termites, streaming up out of the ground, or the woodwork. April is normally the peak month for termites to emerge in this area, with some continued activity in early May. "But we have had continued swarming even into June this year," while April was not as heavy as it normally is. "It's a little UNUSUAL. The most intelligent entomologists in the business don't have any idea why the pattern has changed."

ALPS - 10 people have died and thousands of buildings across Austria, the Czech republic and Poland have been flooded as heavy rain hit the Northern Alps. Some areas have had more rain in the last few days than normally falls in 2 months. The Danube burst its banks in places and flooded dozens of homes. In the town of Güssing some streets were under 1.5 meters of water. The Czech Republic suffered the worst with 10 people dying in the floods. Buildings were simply swept away as rivers became ragging torrents. In Poland the authorities say the situation is still ‘serious’.
On Tuesday, there was snow in the Alps - Parts of Austria were hit by a rather unseasonal dump of fresh snow. It made an odd sight in June. In places there was snow as low as 1650m. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NEBRASKA - Extreme heat - A combination of high temperatures and humidity in Nebraska has killed hundreds of cattle. The deaths will hurt cattle producers who already were struggling with high feed costs and reduced demand for meat and animal hides because of the recession. In southeastern Nebraska's Hamilton County, temperatures in the 90s and high humidity contributed to the deaths of roughly 600 cattle. A veterinarian said that he's NEVER SEEN THIS MANY heat deaths at once. Having 10-15 dead cattle at a feedlot might be expected on a hot day, but he's seen 200 deaths at some feedlots. The high temperatures this week were especially hard on cattle because they followed an UNUSUALLY cool period this spring. The quick change in temperatures meant the cattle didn't have a chance to become acclimated to it. "This stretch (of hot weather) that we've been in is probably as bad as it gets."

SPACE WEATHER-
There is new evidence in the debate regarding the 1908 Tunguska event that destroyed 80 million trees in Siberia. An icy comet, rather than a meteor, must have been responsible for the event. Researchers say that clouds that form at the poles after shuttle launches are due to the turbulent transport of water from shuttle exhaust. Similar clouds were visible at night long after the Tunguska event. Bright night skies after the Tunguska event could be explained by a great deal of water being released into the upper atmosphere. That suggests the cause was a comet that shed its icy outer coating before plunging to Earth, rather than an asteroid or meteor.

HEALTH THREATS -
Officials estimate at least a million Americans have had swine flu, with 127 deaths, but many cases were mild. An infection rate of one million people, although high, would still be modest compared with the 36 million Americans who each year come down with seasonal flu.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases in England has jumped by nearly 20% in a single day, latest figures show. 535 new cases were confirmed on Friday, bringing the total to 3,364. Scotland registered another 72 cases on Friday, an 8.5% rise, bringing the total to 922, and a 25th case was confirmed in Northern Ireland. With 12 cases confirmed in Wales, the total number of confirmed UK cases now stands at 4,323. The UK could soon expect to see a surge of new cases. The chief medical officer for England predicted tens of thousands of cases of swine flu could be emerging each week by the autumn. London is a swine flu "hotspot" in England, recording 225 new cases on Friday, taking the total to 985.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Smith Dairy Products Company announced a voluntary recall on SMITH'S Tea with Lemon in gallon size.
-Torres Hillsdale Country Cheese of Reading, Michigan announced the recall of all lots of various types of soft Mexican-style cheeses due to potential Listeria contamination.

U.S. authorities have seized all medicines produced by generic drugmaker Caraco Pharmaceutical Laboratories Ltd (CPD.A) following repeated violations of manufacturing standards. The drugs included generic versions of heart, pain and psychiatric medicines. Up to 33 different drugs may have been seized at the company's three manufacturing plants, all located in Michigan. "This action follows Caraco's continued failure to meet" manufacturing standards that assure drug quality.

Friday, June 26, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"The King is dead. Long live the King."

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/25/09 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Mount Cleveland, located in the eastern Aleutian Islands near the community of Nikolski, erupted Thursday morning sending an ash cloud less than 15,000 feet in the air. The ash cloud detached from the volcano and moved south. Cleveland last erupted in February, 2001. Three explosive events sent ash plumes to as high as 39,000 feet. AVO elevated the alert level for the volcano located about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage to orange.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression NANGKA was 38 nmi ESE of Hong Kong.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDONESIA - Climate change is worsening the hunger problem in Indonesia's West Timor province, which is already rivalling Africa. Years of poor harvests mean many children in the region, where the climate can feel more like parts of arid Australia than lush Indonesia, are underweight and malnourished. 91 per cent of West Timor's children suffer from “food insecurity”, meaning they don't have access to regular and affordable nutritious food. About 50 per cent of infants and young children were either moderately or severely underweight, compared to African countries overall, where 21.9 per cent of children were underweight. There is evidence the problem was growing worse, as farmers were at the mercy of more unpredictable weather patterns. A review of the area's rainfall records for the past 13 years – the limits of available data – showed only 46 per cent fell in the expected rainy season.

BRITAIN - A heatwave alert has been issued by the Met Office amid warnings of extreme temperatures over the next few days. There is a 60% risk of a heatwave for Monday and Tuesday with daytime highs in London reaching 32C and remaining warm at night. The Met Office has predicted that around the country daytime temperatures could reach 29-30C, with minimum night-time temperatures of 15-18C. London, the East of England, South West, South East and the Midlands are the most likely to be affected. Officials had already said this summer may be warmer than the past couple of years. With climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more common over the next few decades and the Chief Medical Officer has warned of an increase in deaths in times of hot weather.

Dolphin 'super pod' shifts north - Hundreds of dolphins more commonly found in warmer seas have been seen in the Moray Firth in Scotland while making a "massive migration" into the North Sea. The environmental charity Earthwatch Institute said more than 400 short-beaked common dolphins were sighted off the north east coast. It said the "super pod" was a sign of how climate change was pushing some wildlife further north. The dolphins' appearance in the firth was hugely significant. "Firstly, the sheer number of dolphins was astounding - there were common dolphin everywhere around us over a two-mile radius. Furthermore, this was only the second sighting in the past few years of such a 'super-pod' of this species in these waters. The first sighting in 10 years was recorded here in July 2007 when we were joined by more than 300 animals in the outer Moray Firth."

Thursday, June 25, 2009 -

It's Coming! 2012 - The Movie. November 2009. The trailer is "a masterpiece of mass destruction. It begins with the typical tabloid news montage, 24 hour channels cheering the various omens with the standard doom and gloom prostylitizing. Soon, things start going boom. The Vatican watches as St. Peters literally falls apart. Elsewhere, John Cusak and his family are attacked by what appears to be every meteorite and/or asteroid in the entire Milky Way. Random shots of Los Angeles in full blown earthquake mode are witnessed, while the entire state of California appears to disappear into the Pacific after said “big one” concludes. There are cities on fire, deep snowbanks outside a desolate Washington DC, and an argument between co-stars Oliver Platt and Chiwetel Ejiofor about who can evacuate the planet in one of America’s waiting space arks. That’s right - space arks - huge starships that, in less than three years, will apparently be revealed as our last best hope of survival against a world quickly given over to cosmic climate shifts." (photos)

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/24/09 -
5.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm NANGKA was 179 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

PHILIPPINES - Nangka has raged across the central Philippines today, leaving at least six people dead, including four fishermen whose motorboat was destroyed. The storm packing winds of 75km/h struck the eastern Samar province yesterday and by today was roaring westward over the Philippines towards the South China Sea. The winds have destroyed houses while about 10,000 people are stranded aboard hundreds of ferries and motorboats.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

British swine flu cases could mount to tens of thousands every week within months and the strategy to cope with outbreaks is being changed.

Virus stable - The World Health Organization said on Thursday that the H1N1 virus was stable and there was no sign of it mixing with avian flu or other influenza viruses.

The global tally of novel H1N1 flu cases rose to 55,876, including 238 deaths. The total is an increase of 3,707 since the last WHO update 2 days ago. The list includes nine countries reporting their first novel flu cases: Antigua and Barbuda, Cambodia, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Latvia, Montenegro, Tunisia, and Vanuatu. Countries reporting more than 200 new cases are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and Britain.

US officials suggest that new virus originated in Asia - US agriculture officials believe the novel H1N1 virus originated in Asia, not in North America, where it was first found. There is no evidence that the new virus has ever circulated in North American pigs, but a virus taken from a pig in Hong Kong in 2004 was found to be closely related to it. US officials thus speculate that a human carried the virus from Asia to North America -- but they said there is no way to prove the idea.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009 -

A stitch in time saves nine.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/23/09 -
6.8 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA

ALASKA - An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.4 struck near the town of Willow at 11:30 a.m on Monday. The epicenter was 58 miles from the state's largest city, Anchorage, where the rumbling continued for several moments, causing people to dive under desks and huddle in doorways. The earthquake took place where the Pacific tectonic plate is subducting beneath the North American plate. "There have been many, many events there in the past so this is not an unusual event. It's also a remote region in the Aleutians so the population density is extremely low." Monday's earthquake and its aftershocks had nothing to do with Mount Redoubt.
The earthquake “caused a minor disruption” at Tesoro Corp.’s 72,000-barrel-a-day Kenai refinery. The disruption “was quickly corrected, and all units are now back to normal operations." Tesoro’s Kenai refinery is located on the Cook Inlet, some 70 miles southwest of Anchorage.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm ANDRES was 72 nmi W of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical storm NANGKA was 139 nmi SSE of Manila, Philippines.

Andres briefly flared up into the Pacific season's first hurricane Tuesday, then quickly weakened back to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Andres flooded homes and knocked down trees along Mexico's Pacific coast Monday, killing at least one person. Mexico issued a hurricane warning for the strip of coast from just south of Manzanillo to near Puerto Vallarta. To the south, the storm dumped heavy rains on Acapulco, where flooding forced about 200 people to evacuate their homes on Monday. A fisherman drowned when choppy currents overturned his boat in a lagoon Monday in Tecpan de Galeana, between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo. Andres sped up as it headed on a course to graze the port city of Manzanillo at hurricane strength late Tuesday, then push along shore. Rain poured down on Manzanillo, where authorities opened 14 shelters. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Andres could bring coastal storm surge as much as 3 feet (nearly 1 meter) above normal while dumping as much as 8 inches of rain in a few spots. The forecast track showed it then weakening as it continues northwest along the coastline before veering west into the open Pacific and just south of the Los Cabos resorts at the tip of the Baja California peninsula Thursday morning.

INDIA - The development of a mild cyclonic circulation off the Konkan coast in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday has been giving rise to hopes that the monsoon, which has been subdued for more than two weeks now, was firmly finding strength and was on course for a revival by the end of this week. This depression in the Arabian Sea is seen to be travelling close to India’s west coast and is likely to fade out within the next 24 hours. But it is expected to pull the monsoon winds, already gaining strength, towards the west coast and bring rains on coastal Maharashtra, Konkan and south Gujarat in the next couple of days. Weather scientists said for the first time this season, the monsoon winds are looking to flow at a speed excess of 40 knots per hour (about 75 kmph), which was another clear indication that monsoon was in good shape and was strengthening. As of now, the monsoon looks set to start its northward advance from June 25 onwards and was likely to remain in the strong phase for at least a week, during which time it is expected to cover most parts of the country. The onward march of monsoon seems to be aided by the development of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal around June 28.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ITALY - FREAK SUMMER STORMS that have been lashing Italy have affected the holidays of thousands of British tourists. At least six people died and thousands of cars and homes were damaged as 110mph winds thunderstorms lashed the regions of Tuscany, Rome, Naples and Puglia. The violent summer storms caused power cuts, flooding and destruction of property and crops in huge areas across central and southern Italy. The thunderstorms with hail and high winds have affected almost the entire country. Families were evacuated as buildings were damaged, while in Calabria tornadoes upturned cars and felled trees and billboards. Elsewhere there was widespread flooding and landslides and many buildings were left without electricity and water supplies. (photo)

COLD -
PENNSYLVANIA - June has been too cool for the pool. York County is in the midst of a dreary June. High temperatures have been significantly below normal. Rainfall is about average, but an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN has meant more cloud cover and drizzly conditions. "We are seeing what seems to be very much a springtime pattern coming through." York County this time of year normally benefits from high pressure that would push many storm fronts farther to the north,. Rainfall would come down from storm fronts that would quickly give way to clearer skies. Instead, the high pressure so far this year has stayed farther west, around Texas and other Gulf Coast states. In York County that's meant more cloud cover, which drags down high temperatures by blocking sunlight. The average high so far this month is about 77 degrees when it would historically be about 81. When the weather pattern will return to normal is unclear.

MICHIGAN - The first two weeks of June left Muskegon residents wondering, "Where's summer?" Well, summer has officially arrived both on the calendar and in the air. Temperatures hovered in the 60s and low 70s through June 14. A period of cooler temperatures in June is perfectly normal, however, it was PECULIAR that the cold spell came at the beginning of June. "It's been quite a long time since we've had a June that's been like this. This is an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN." The weather was attributed to a transition from a La Nina weather pattern to a more neutral state. La Nina occurs with abnormally cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, while warm water temperatures in that area characterize the El Nino. By the end of the summer, the overall pattern is expected to shift to El Nino. An above normal-amount of rain has fallen on Muskegon in June. The forecast for the rest of the summer calls for an equal chance of rainfall being above or below normal levels.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Heat waves in U.S. - Minnesota, Wisconsin , Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky , Louisiana, Texas, Nebraska, Florida, Michigan , Kansas, Missouri.

HEALTH THREATS -
Germany's federal agency for infectious diseases said on Tuesday there were signs the H1N1 swine flu virus had started to mutate and warned it could spread in the coming months in a more aggressive form. Experts were concerned about how the flu was developing in Australia and South America. "In autumn the mutated form could spread to the northern hemisphere." Germany has the third highest rate of swine flu infection in Europe with 275 confirmed cases. The WHO has advised governments to prepare for a long-term battle against the new pandemic it officially calls A(H1N1). The WHO Director-General said recently the virus is currently "pretty stable," but warned it could still change into a more deadly form, perhaps mixing with the H5N1 bird flu virus circulating widely in poultry.

Asia’s first A(H1N1)-related death is a Filipina from Metro Manila. This was confirmed by health authorities who also warned that 25 percent of the country’s 90 million population could be affected by the dreaded influenza virus. More schools have suspended their classes to protect the health and safety of their students. On June 19, as the cases of Influenza A(H1N1) surged past 300, the health department made public the statistics they have so far on the H1N1 cases in the Philippines. Roughly one-third came from abroad, many of them Filipinos who went for a vacation in the US despite the DOH (Department of Health) warning to put off unnecessary travel. Most of the recorded cases so far are in Metro Manila — and many of them were in Quezon City. All cases have so far been mild. "The first community outbreak in the country is worrisome for two reasons: First, the victims were exposed to the virus due to a medical mission and second, everyone got the virus locally. This is quite dangerous, since the virus is now spreading locally and even doctors don't know how to handle such a potentially virulent strain of the virus. The Department of Health seems capable of doing its job but, somewhere, somewhat, it's bungling it. They want to allay fears by telling that the virus is “mild”, and not lethal. Yet, it says that the potential of the virus morphing into a more virulent strain is there.…the hype has caused many people to panic. Drug companies and some doctors have been quick to ride on the wave of hysteria. People have been flocking to them in droves. They believe that getting injected with the current flu vaccine would protect them from the swine flu. In effect, their panic is filling up the purses of some doctors and drug companies." "Want to know how jumpy people are? Everytime somebody coughs in the elevator, I could literally see everyone’s head turning towards the poor guy, with MURDER written on their faces."

World Bank expects pandemic to dent economic output - The World Bank said the severity and impact of the current pandemic seem to resemble the Hong Kong influenza pandemic of 1968-69, which could mean a drop in gross domestic product of 0.7%. The World Bank said developing countries are most vulnerable to pandemic effects because of high population density, weak healthcare systems, and high prevalence of chronic diseases. The pandemic will likely erode Mexico's output by 5.8% in 2009.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
Cases in cookie dough E coli outbreak have grown to 70.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 -

"Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants."
Michael Pollan

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/22/09 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.2 BISMARCK SEA
5.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.6 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.1 SVALBARD REGION
5.4 SVALBARD REGION

VOLCANOES -
JAPAN - Volcano photo reveals shock wave. Sarychev Peak on Matua Island is one of the most active volcanoes in the Kuril Island chain, northeast of Japan. The new photo was taken June 12 from the International Space Station. Volcano researchers are excited about the picture "because it captures several phenomena that occur during the earliest stages of an explosive volcanic eruption." The main plume appears to be a combination of brown ash and white steam. The vigorously rising plume gives the steam a bubble-like appearance. The surrounding atmosphere has been shoved up by the shock wave of the eruption. Volcano plumes are so chaotic that they produce lightning, as revealed in pictures for the first time earlier this year. The smooth white cloud on top may be water condensation that resulted from rapid rising and cooling of the air mass above the ash column. This cloud is probably a transient feature, with the eruption plume starting to punch through. The cloud casts a dark shadow to the northwest of the island. Often, winds high in the atmosphere sheer a volcano's plume and flatten it out. That didn't happen with this one. The photo also shows a ground-hugging plume of light gray ash, probably a mix of hot gas and ash in a pyroclastic flow, descending from the volcano summit. Pyroclastic flows - deadly to anything or anyone in their paths - are known to be up to 600 degrees and rush across the land at 130 mph. Commercial airline flights are being diverted away from the region to minimize the danger of engine failures from ash intake. The last explosive eruption from Sarychev Peak was in 1989. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - the Gold Coast's already eroded beaches will be hit again by king tides of more than 2m predicted from Monday night until Friday. A 2.55m high tide hit the Gold Coast about 7.30pm Sunday, coupled with 1.2m waves. The tide and swell combination has some beachfront residents fearing their properties, still suffering from last month's wild weather, could be ripped apart again.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 04W was 172 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical depression LINFA was 143 nmi N of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm ANDRES was 145 nmi WSW of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical storm Four is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 04:00 GMT today.

Linfa - Torrential rain and strong winds triggered by tropical storm Linfa have left one person missing in east China's Fujian Province.

Andres - The first tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific might become a hurricane briefly today, with sustained winds of 73 mph or stronger.

Gulf temperatures along the Southwest Florida coast hovered above 91 degrees Sunday afternoon, a development that could lead to more intense hurricanes should one reach the Gulf of Mexico, since warm water intensifies tropical cyclones. But the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Southwest Floridians shouldn't be concerned by the warmer-than-usual water temperatures. "Yes, there are locations (in the Gulf) that are above normal but overall we expect water temperatures to reduce hurricanes this season rather than enhance them because water temperatures in the (Atlantic) basin as a whole are below normal." Thanks to a lack of rain and a heat wave that walloped the region the past two days, the water off Naples and Fort Myers beach rose to 92 and 91 degrees, respectively, Sunday afternoon. Naples' temperature was 6 degrees above normal for this time of the year; Fort Myers was 1 degree above normal. Gulf temperatures were similarly above normal in August 2005 when Hurricane Katrina infamously used the Gulf's warm water to evolve from a Category 3 storm to a Category 5 behemoth in nine hours. Katrina then undermined the levees in New Orleans and killed about 1,580 people in Louisiana. But warm water is just one factor involved in hurricane development. "Positioning of loop currents in the Gulf and how storms pass over them is one factor. There's no way to tell in June how storms might pass over these loop currents in July, August, September or October." Tropical cyclones also require low vertical wind shear, or winds that are uniform through the atmosphere, to intensify. Winds that change significantly with height tend to rip storms apart. The Atlantic basin is expected to have more wind shear than normal this hurricane season, which began two weeks ago and runs until Nov. 30, because of a potential El Nino weather pattern developing in the Pacific. In May, the National Hurricane Center predicted an average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters said then that there was a 70 percent chance of nine to 14 named storms developing. Four to seven of those could become hurricanes, forecasters predicted. "Since May, the likelihood of an El Nino has increased. If our forecast was issued today instead of last month, I think it would have been shaded to an even more quieter (hurricane season) prediction." But devastating storms can, and do, develop during supposedly quiet seasons.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ITALY - FREAK weather batters Southern Italy. It's summer in Italy but Naples looks more like the arctic. It is in fact hail, not snow lying on the pavements in the city centre, but even so residents aren't impressed. Torrential rain and strong winds have caused havoc in the city – and in many other parts of southern Italy. There have been several landslides and the rescue services have been working flat out. Hundreds of cars have been damaged and some streets were blocked. Electricity supplies were cut for a time and part of the city even had to be evacuated. All this at a time when it's normally hot and sunny in Naples. Many are speculating whether the effects of global warming are to blame for the UNUSUAL conditions.

So far, THIS IS THE COLDEST JUNE IN 27 YEARS in the U.S. Northeast - June is also on track to become ONE OF THE WETTEST JUNES ON RECORD. June in the Midwest so far is the COLDEST IN SIX YEARS and has been wetter than normal, but still not close to last year when it was the second wettest in 50 years. It is the WETTEST IN 4 YEARS in the U.S. Southeast and U.S. Southwest and the COLDEST IN 42 YEARS in the Southwest. The unseasonal weather stood out in New York City. The city has failed to top 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 Celsius) so far in June, which has happened only twice in the past 17 years. With 15 days of rain in the first 21 days of June, New York City is on track for an all-time record in days and amount. June is also set to be ONE OF THE CITY'S COLDEST IN 50 YEARS.

A series of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions gave the planet its polar ice caps, and started a freeze-thaw cycle of ice ages that persists to this day, according to a new theory. Though we have come to view polar ice as a permanent feature, ice on earth has a checkered past. Until around 34 million years ago the planet was much warmer than it is today; the Arctic was a vast swamp, Antarctica's mountains were speckled with just a few tiny glaciers. There were no such things as ice caps. Suddenly, mysteriously, earth's balmy climate cooled. Ice took up residence at the poles, and began marching toward the equator. The theory argues that a series of massive volcanic eruptions spanning nearly all of present-day Mexico, as well as parts of New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho launched vast amounts of ash into the atmosphere. As ash rained into the world's oceans, the team's theory goes, it brought in millions of tons of iron that fertilised a feeding frenzy of algae. The photosynthetic creatures harnessed sunlight, nutrients and carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent greenhouse gas, sucking billions of tonnes of it from the atmosphere and chilling the planet. It didn't happen overnight. The Silicic Large Igneous Province erupted in hundreds of explosions between 50 and 15 million years ago. Each eruption was gargantuan. In all, the team estimates the eruptions launched 400,000 cubic kilometres of ash into the atmosphere during that time, enough material to fill the Caspian Sea five times over, or 710,000 times the volume of Sydney Harbour. The cumulative effect on climate was immense. Over millions of years, what had been a steamy planet turned into the icy place we know today. And though the direct effects of the eruptions have faded from view, climate feedback from ice sheets, wind patterns, and changes in the earth orbit are enough to keep us in the glacial cycle deep-freeze ice ages that return every 20,000 to 100,000 years

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - Report foresees drastic climate change for British Columbia - "Smoke blankets the province as mega-fires devour withered pine forests. Dust bowls scour the Okanagan, increasingly resembling the Sahara. When rain relieves parched land, it comes in hurricane-driven torrents. Hills slide down on homes and water wells are poisoned. Plagues and pestilence march north, carried by rodents, insects, birds and humans. Disease thrives while flood levels rise. Welcome to B.C. in 2050 - when the strong will survive but the most vulnerable could die." The above scenario may sound like apocalyptic, but evidence suggests blights of biblical proportions may be coming, due to climate change. Climate-change science suggests that, by 2050, heat stroke will replace freezing as the biggest extreme-weather killer in B.C., with the elderly and urban poor most endangered. Climate-change disaster already threatens 103 aboriginal communities in the middle of a massive swath of trees killed by mountain-pine beetles, which have run amok recently in warmer winters. Computer models show that, as summers become hotter and drier, devastating blazes such as the Kelowna fire of 2003 could occur 10 times a century, compared to two or three times in the past century. Summer 2009 is already off to a fiery 2003-like start.

Heat wave hitting southern U.S. hard - A dry, scorching June for much of the South will likely remain this week with high temperatures expected to be as much as 10-15 degrees above average and some areas near or at RECORD HIGHS. As the first day of summer arrived Sunday, cities across the South and parts of the Midwest were monitoring near-record highs. Tallahassee recorded 103 degrees on Saturday, just one degree shy of that day's record high. Record highs are possible for several southern cities this week, including Jacksonville, Orlando, Memphis, Little Rock, Corpus Christi and New Orleans. St. Louis is under an "excessive heat warning" through midweek, with temperatures in the upper 90s, or over 105 with the humidity calculated in. "Extensive heat warnings" were in effect for Mobile, Ala., and Pensacola, Florida. The high-level ridge causing the heat is UNIQUE in that it parked itself directly over the southern U.S., not allowing sea moisture or winds to blow in. The ridge has kept out thunderstorms, which typically lower temperatures, and pushed down warm air, creating the hot, dry conditions. The ridge is expected to stay there through at least next week. "It's still a very hot-air pressure system." The National Weather Service warned of "exceptional" and "extreme" drought conditions in swaths of southeast Texas. Southern Louisiana was deemed "abnormally dry," though not in a drought situation. New Orleans usually receives nearly 4.5 inches of rain by this time in June. So far this month, the city's seen .92 inch.

INDIA - No rain spurs heat wave alert. A truant monsoon has transformed the state into one big baking oven and prompted worried weathermen to issue a heat wave alert. “There is no indication of arrival of monsoon in the next three days. The maximum temperature will continue to rise because the dry westerly winds are dominant." The heat wave warning has been particularly issued for Daltonganj, Gumla, Koderma, Ranchi, Hazaribagh and the Singhbhum-Kolhan region. Most of these places recorded a maximum temperature seven to nine degrees above normal yesterday. While Daltonganj sweltered at 45°C (nine degrees above normal), Jamshedpur panted for breath as the mercury scaled eight notch above normal and stood at 43.8°C. Ranchi, too, recorded a maximum temperature of 40.5°C (seven degrees above normal). According to Met records, during June last year, the maximum temperature varied between a cooler 25°C and 35°C. “But this time, the absence of rain has led to an abrupt rise in temperatures. Satellite pictures suggest that Jharkhand is in the grip of north-westerly winds, which catapult day temperatures and prevent moisture incursion into the atmosphere. The prevailing weather condition is resulting in more solar radiation, which in turn is raising the temperature." The delay in monsoon coupled with rising temperature has become an issue of concern for weathermen. Experts believe that if rainfall in July does not make up for the deficit, Jharkhand might face a drought-like situation. “Last year, the state had received over 350mm of rainfall after the arrival of monsoon on June 8. This time, the deficit is about 40 per cent." The cruel sun, meanwhile, forced residents of both the capital and the steel city to remain indoors. Dry, hot winds sweeping across the state were affecting normal life LIKE NEVER BEFORE. “ The condition was unlikely to change before the middle of next week. Dry winds, no local cloud formation and gradual decrease in humidity level are upping the discomfort index.

YEMEN - Severe heat wave sweeps across several provinces. The National Meteorology Center warned citizens in Hadramout, Shabwa, Al-Mahara, Al-Jawf, Sa'ada and Mareb against a severe heat wave to sweep over the next 48 hours. The heat wave, ranging between 40 to 45 degrees Celsius, is expected to sweep across southern and western provinces especially those located on the Arab Sea on the south and North and Red Sea on the north. Four heat-related deaths were reported in Aden last week; however, this was never confirmed by official sources. The Metrology Center predicted a similar heat wave in Aden, Al-Hodeidah, Shabwa and Abyan. The heat in these provinces is predicted to hover between 36 and 40 degrees Celsius.

HEALTH THREATS -
The World Health Organization's count of novel H1N1 influenza cases reached 52,160, nearly 8,000 more than the last count on Jun 19. The WHO listed the death toll as 231, up from 180 as of 3 days ago. Five countries are new to the list: Algeria, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Fiji, and Slovenia. Media reports said that Ethiopia and Iran also have reported their first cases, all in people who were recently in the United States.

Nearly all influenza A viruses in US are novel H1N1 - The novel H1N1 influenza virus accounted for 98% of all influenza A viruses that were subtyped in the United States in the week of Jun 6-13. Only 0.2% of isolates were influenza B. The CDC said overall flu activity declined but remained above normal for this time of year, with 11 states reporting widespread activity.

US warns travelers of risk of quarantine in China - The US State Department warned on Jun 19 that travelers to China may be quarantined for 7 days if they arrive with a fever or flu-like symptoms. Chinese authorities target travelers with even slightly elevated temperatures, plus people sitting near them, if they come from areas with novel H1N1 cases. It also said the US has received reports of children being separated from parents and travelers being held in unsuitable quarantine conditions with poor drinking water and food.

Monday, June 22, 2009 -

Ignorance, the root and the stem of every evil.
Plato

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/21/09 -
5.1 SVALBARD REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression ANDRES was 156 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical depression LINFA was 125 nmi WNW of Taipei, Taiwan.

Heavy rain and strong winds brought by Tropical Storm Linfa caused damage and injuries in Taiwan yesterday, disrupting about 200 flights. Monks and motorcyclists suffered minor injuries in Penghu and Tainan, while about 500 houses in Penghu were without electricity. Strong winds were also reported in Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties, blowing down billboards and trees. Continuous rainfall in Taoyuan caused landslides on some sections of Highway No. 7. The Central Weather Bureau warned people in central, southern and southeastern Taiwan to beware of heavy or torrential rains brought by the southwest air stream that generally comes on the heels of a tropical storm or typhoon. Some areas in southeastern Taiwan had already received more than 20mm of rain per hour. “The weather conditions nationwide in the next two days will not be stable.” (photo / map)
Tropical storm Linfa plowed into southern China's Fujian province on Sunday night, sending fishing boats scurrying to safety and closing the port of Xiamen. Linfa was downgraded from a typhoon as it entered the Taiwan Strait. It is expected to sweep the coastal provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang, as well as northwestern Taiwan, before moving on to southern Japan.

A tropical depression, ANDRES, has formed in the Pacific Ocean off the southern coast of Mexico. The center of the depression was located about 200 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, at 2 p.m. PDT Sunday. The system is moving to the west near 7 mph and has maximum sustained winds of around 35 mph. The system could bring heavy rainfall to southwestern areas of the country over the next two days, but the center of the depression is currently forecast to remain offshore. The system is expected to strengthen and could become a tropical storm.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TIBET - A drought in Tibet has intensified into the region's WORST IN THREE DECADES, leaving thousands of hectares parched and killing more than 13,000 head of cattle. The report follows a warning by China's top weather official last month that the Himalayan region faced a growing threat of drought and floods as global warming melts its glaciers. Drought conditions have hit five of Tibet's six prefectures since last year, affecting 15.3 percent of the remote plateau. Some weather stations had not received significant rainfall in 226 days. "The drought has also been worsened by higher than normal temperatures. Tibet has experienced temperatures 0.4 to 2.3 degrees Celsius (0.7 to 4.1 Fahrenheit) higher than normal years." Experts have repeatedly warned of catastrophic consequences downstream if global warming continues to melt the snows and glaciers of mountainous Tibet, source of many of Asia's mightiest rivers.

CANADA - Saskatchewan is trying to help drought-stricken livestock producers by opening up more Crown land for grazing.

British summers could soon be like those in the drought-ridden Mediterranean, and the winters characterized by severe flooding.

U.S. - The weather has been UNUSUAL ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. A storm system has been drenching the Midwest and Northeast with torrential rains. Violent storms ripped through the Midwest spawning tornadoes, downing trees, and flooding streets and have now taken aim at the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Enough is enough is the feeling among those in New York, where rain has washed-out 17 of the 21 days in June.
In the southern part of the country, residents have been dealing with another weather extreme: scorching heat. Temperatures have reached triple-digits. Seething sun, relentless rain, and for most of the country, no happy medium.

Sunday, June 21, 2009 -

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/20/09 -
5.8 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6/19/09 -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.9 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
5.3 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

CALIFORNIA - A 4.6 earthquake jolted central California shortly before dawn Saturday, the latest in a series of quakes that have rattled the state. The temblor struck at 5.32 am local time about halfway between the cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco. The quake registered at a depth of six kilometers. A 4.7-magnitude earthquake shook the region May 23, less than a week after a pair of similar temblors rattled the highly populated southern part of the state. Geologists say an earthquake capable of causing widespread destruction is 99% CERTAIN of hitting California within the next 30 years.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon LINFA was 209 nmi SW of Taipei, Taiwan.

TAIWAN - Friday, the Central Weather Bureau issued a sea warning for this year's third tropical storm, Linfa. At 8:30 p.m Linfa was located at sea 470 km southwest of Taiwan's southernmost tip of Eluanbi, with a 120-kilometer radius. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 83 km per hour, was moving north-northeast at 14 km per hour. The meteorologists urged the public to refrain from activities along the seaside as the storm is generating big waves along the coast from southwestern Taiwan to the Hengchun Peninsula.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IDAHO - Rainstorms lay waste to hay crop - Heavy rainfall this spring in Southern Idaho has helped many crops, but hay isn't one of them. A series of storms beginning in late-May has hindered farmers in the region from getting their first cutting out of the field. Downed hay has been pounded by storm after storm, turning windrows a pale yellow. Instead of baling rain-damaged alfalfa, some growers are now green-chopping it. Top quality first-cutting hay is expected to be in short supply - and prices could rise as a result. It's not unusual for Idaho hay growers to have to contend with some rain showers around first cutting, but it's RARELY LIKE THIS. Twin Falls received 3.11 inches of rain in the first two weeks of June. That's about one-third of the area's average annual rainfall.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

OKLAHOMA - Spring 2009 has been one of extremes in Oklahoma -- from a record-breaking blizzard to triple-digit heat. National Weather Service forecasts are predicting above-average heat for many areas this summer. Whether that's a sign of things to come isn't known, but there's no denying that it was an UNUSUAL SPRING. From March 27th to March 30th, northwest Oklahoma received more than two feet of snow. Twenty-five inches of snow fell in a 24-hour period about six miles north of Fort Supply, BREAKING THE RECORD of 23 inches at Buffalo in 1971. As for rainfall, Burneyville received a RECORD 12.42 inches of rain on April 29th but the Oklahoma Panhandle has gotten an average of just over 5 inches of rain, making it the 20th-driest spring on record for that region.

KANSAS - This week's wild weather in parts of Kansas included a RARE phenomenon called a heat burst. Wednesday night, the heat burst increased temperatures 16 degrees in less than an hour and then cooled them down just as quickly. During a heat burst, temperatures warm as winds increase at the surface. That happened Wednesday because a collapsing thunderstorm drew hot air from the upper atmosphere down into extremely dry air near the surface. The heat burst raised temperatures in several areas, including Hutchinson, Wichita and McPherson to near 100. In less than an hour, the temperatures were down to the mid-80s. A National Weather Service meterologist says it's only the third or fourth heat burst he's seen in 14 years working in Kansas.

FLORIDA - RARE heat advisory issued on Saturday. Although this is Florida in June, this is VERY UNUSUAL since there is a high pressure system preventing widespread rain from forming. Wednesday's and Thursday's afternoon highs were 96 degrees, which tied records at Tampa International Airport.

TEXAS - recent blast-furnace heat and drought-like weather is UNUSUAL for June, which is traditionally one of wettest months in Houston. The area has recorded just a trace of rain so far this month and has had 25 straight days with no measurable rainfall. Normally, about 3.4 inches of rain has fallen by this time in June. The area’s driest June on record was in 2005, when .08 inches of rain was recorded. The wettest June so far was in 2001 when about 19 inches of rain fell. About 16 inches of that rainfall came during Tropical Storm Allison, which flooded downtown Houston and other areas. “It’s either feast or famine." The recent near-triple digit heat also has been UNUSUAL. During the first week of June mild temperatures remained in the 80s, which is below normal for the period. But by June 8, temperatures began rising and by June 11, highs each day climbed to near triple digits, which is about seven degrees above normal. The forecast for Houston remains the same as long as a persistent dome of high pressure stays parked over eastern Texas and Louisiana: High temperatures in the upper 90s. That high-pressure area could shift westward next week, but forecasters aren’t betting that will allow an approaching front to make it to Houston.

HEALTH THREATS -
The number of global novel influenza cases grew to 44,287 cases, including 180 deaths. The list includes the first confirmed cases from Laos, Oman, St Maarten, Papua New Guinea, South Africa, and Suriname. Countries reporting large increases include Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom.

The US's number of novel H1N1 cases grew to 21,449, including 87 deaths. The number reflects an increase of 3,594 cases and 87 fatalities from a week ago. States reporting the most cases include Wisconsin, Illinois, Texas, New York, Massachusetts, and California. New York confirmed the highest number of deaths, 24, followed by Texas with 10, and California, Utah, and Illinois with 8 each.

RECALLS & ALERTS:

NESTLE COOKIE DOUGH - Federal microbiologists and food safety investigators have descended on the Danville, Va., plant that makes Nestle's refrigerated cookie dough, trying to crack a scientific mystery surrounding a national outbreak of E. Coli from raw cookie dough.

Friday, June 19, 2009 -

Against logic there is no armor like ignorance.
Laurence J. Peter

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/18/09 -
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Scientists Search for a Pulse in Skies Above Earthquake Country - When a swarm of hundreds of small to moderate earthquakes erupted beneath California's Salton Sea in March, sending spasms rumbling across the desert floor, it set off more than just seismometers. It also raised the eyebrows of quite a few concerned scientists. The reason: lurking underground, just a few kilometers to the northeast, lays a sleeping giant: the 160-kilometer-(100-mile) long southern segment of the notorious San Andreas fault. Scientists were concerned that the recent earthquake swarm at the Salton Sea's Bombay Beach could perhaps be the straw that broke the camel's back, triggering "the big one," a huge earthquake that could devastate Southern California. The southern end of the San Andreas has remained silent, at least for now. But the earthquake swarm and more recent, widely felt earthquakes in the Los Angeles area have stirred renewed interest in earthquake research. A multi-year project currently under way at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is seeking to improve our understanding by using a groundbreaking, airborne radar to study earthquake processes along the San Andreas and other California faults. Large earthquakes occur on the southern San Andreas about every 250 to 300 years, on average. Yet the extreme southern segment of the fault hasn't budged for about 320 years. It is apparently overdue, primed for another large event. Space-based instruments can image minute Earth movements to within a few centimeters (fractions of an inch), measuring the slow buildup of deformation along faults and mapping ground deformation after earthquakes occur.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mt Anak Krakatau`s eruptions record tremendous increase. Small eruptions of Mt Anak Krakatau, the volcano in the Sunda Strait near Lampung province, through Wednesday were reported to have recorded a tremendous increase during the past few days, while the status of the volcano remained at the third level of alertness. At least 828 small eruptions were recorded to have happened on the volcano with 63 volcanic quakes, 434 tremors and 366 times of emission in the past six days. The frequency of the quakes and small eruptions took place every three minutes. At present, the condition of Mt Anak Krakatau is in a state of danger, as it spewed glowing lava like gravel with a temperature at 600 degree celcius. The increasing eruption was marked with white smoke billowing from the mountain`s crater in a height of 800 meters to the north. In response to increasing seismic activity around Mt. Anak Krakatau, trekking and hiking activities have been banned in the area. The mountain, which experienced increasing seismic activity since April this year has been erupting on a daily basis. "There are strong indications of increasing seismic activities including the emission of hazardous gas." The volcano`s activity was on Friday marked by 182 eruptions coupled with 11 volcanic quakes, eight deep volcanic tremors, 54 shallow volcanic shocks, 44 tremors, and it also spewed smoke 29 times. But none of the phenomena posed a direct threat to human life. There were even 2-minute tectonic shocks but also not dangerous. Learning of the rising activity, some coastal residents living close to Mount Anak Krakatau were reported to have evacuated to Bandarlampung for fear of imminent eruption of the volcano due to the increased volcanic activity. "The distance between our village and Anak Krakatau is more than three miles, but the sound of eruption that it produces is very loud, like the sound of a cannon in the middle of the sea. So far it has never emitted such loud blasts and we have been observing that it has often discharged molten lava." Fishermen have been afraid of fishing around the volcano and the Sunda Strait over the past week. The best-known eruption of Krakatau culminated in a series of massive explosions on August 26-27, 1883, which were among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history. The eruption was equivalent to 200 megatons of TNT - about 13,000 times the nuclear yield of the Little Boy bomb that devastated Hiroshima during World War II and four times the yield of the largest nuclear device ever detonated.

INDONESIA - The devastating 'mud volcano' could keep spewing for the next 30 years, filling the equivalent of 50 Olympic-size swimming pools every day.

RUSSIA - A volcanic eruption in Russia's Kuril Islands is diverting jets to Anchorage. Sarychev Volcano has been erupting since late last week. A spokesman for Anchorage's main airport says it has received about a dozen diverted Asia-bound passenger and cargo flights since Sunday night. Airport staff on Wednesday called it a "turnabout of volcanic impacts," referring to the Anchorage airport's previous loss of flights during eruptions of Mount Redoubt. An ash cloud from Sarychev on Wednesday was moving northwest toward mainland Russia. Flights also have been routed to San Francisco. International flights to some Asian cities have been canceled.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 01E was 194 nmi SW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Tropical storm LINFA was 240 nmi WNW of Baguio City, Philippines.

A tropical low pressure system in the East Sea strengthened into a storm on June 18. Linfa, the second system of its kind to hit the East Sea this year, was packing winds of 62-74km per hour near its eye. In the next 24 hours, the storm is forecast to move northward and then change direction to north-northeast or northeast. It is likely to gain strength in the next 48 hours. The storm will cause strong winds and rough seas in the northern part of the East Sea. (map)

Season's 1st tropical depression forms in Pacific - Forecasters say it could strengthen to a tropical storm before nearing the Mexican coast by tonight or Saturday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
UNITED KINGDOM - One in six homes in England is at risk of flooding, says the Environment Agency, and climate change will raise that number without better protection. The agency calculates that funding for projects that protect communities from flooding from rivers and the sea needs to double to £1bn annually by 2035. Without that, it says, economic damage worth £4bn per year could be the norm. "The latest UK climate change data shows that the risk of flooding and coastal erosion will continue to increase in future due to rising sea levels and more frequent and heavy storms." The climate impact projections concluded that every part of the UK was likely to receive more rainfall in winters - by 2080, as much as 20% more in some regions. This means that rivers may carry 20% more water at some periods of the year than at present. Vital infrastructure is also increasingly at risk, with about one-sixth of the country's electricity infrastructure situated in flood plains.

America's two coasts are experiencing vastly different springs, with a hot, dry West worried about an intense wildfire season and parts of the East Coast soaking in a RARE months-long deluge. The Western drought is most intense in California, where more than 97% of the state is either abnormally dry or in some form of drought condition. Parts of Texas also are enduring a historic drought. The coastal bend area of the state has BROKEN RECORDS FOR LACK OF RAINFALL FOR THE PAST NINE MONTHS. "Many of the dryland crops there are total disasters." The lack of recent rain there is especially concerning as summer approaches. May and June are normally the two wettest months of the year in Texas, while July and August two of the driest. As Westerners brace for the fires, the eastern third of the country is virtually drought-free after an extremely soggy May. Washington Dulles International Airport has received almost 5½ inches of rain in the first two weeks of June. That's 1½ inches more than the area typically sees for the ENTIRE MONTH. Three months ago, more than 70% of Florida was under a drought condition. Now, following the RAINIEST MAY ON RECORD, it's at 0%. The downpour has hurt some farmers as they prepare to harvest plants that grow low to the ground. Tomatoes have swelled and burst and watermelons are rotting. The rainfall totals have been staggering in some parts of the state. For the month of May, Daytona Beach recorded 22.33 inches of rain, which was 685% above normal, SHATTERING ITS MAY RECORD by 10 inches.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - People in Orissa are now seeking divine intervention for respite from the UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE that continues to grip parts of the state. Fifty heat deaths have been reported through Thursday in the state. The monsoon normally arrives in the state by June 10. This year, however, save for some rains in the last week of May, the state has been witnessing a dry spell. Many places in the state recorded more than 40 degrees Celsius Wednesday. More than 200 residents in Cuttack city, Wednesday performed a ‘yagna’ fire ritual to invoke the rain god with the hope of getting relief from the searing heat. Usually farmers organize such rituals, but for the first time people of the non-farming community have sought divine intervention in a city yearning for rain.

SPACE WEATHER-
AUSTRALIA - Mysterious flash, explosion and fire - An air and ground search of the area in central Queensland where a bright flash and explosion was witnessed early this morning has failed to find an obvious cause. Emergency services initially believed a plane may have crashed into a mountain at Takilberan Creek northwest of Gin Gin but the Australian Search and Rescue Authority received no mayday or distress calls from aircraf. Although a search found a fire on the mountain, there was no evidence of any wreckage or “risk to human life”. A crew had not been able to identify what caused the fire. “They’ve conducted ground searches as well as an aerial search. There is a fire up there but it could have been caused by a space junk or meteor strike, or even a lightning strike.” Police from Gin Gin have also been involved in an air and ground search in the thickly forested area following a 000 call about 6.30am. Space authorities said it was not uncommon for natural material to hit the earth, with about 100 tonnes of material entering the earth's atmosphere every day. A resident of Dalby, about 350km southwest of Takilberan Creek, said she saw an explosion of white-yellow light streak across the sky about 6am. "It was brighter and larger and too low in the sky to be a falling star. It was just a flash, it was kind of like a comet tail, but just for a few seconds. It was a ball of light that went to a tail.'' A UFO Research Queensland spokeswoman said they had received no reports about the incident.

An enormous eruption has found its way to Earth after travelling for many thousands of years across space. Studying this blast, astronomers have discovered a dead star belonging to a rare group: the magnetars. X-Rays from the giant outburst arrived on Earth on 22 August 2008. The outburst lasted for more than four months, during which time hundreds of smaller bursts were measured. So far only 15 magnetars in total are known in our Galaxy. Magnetars are the most intensely magnetised objects in the Universe. Their magnetic fields are some 10,000 million times stronger than Earth's. This particular magnetar, known as SGR 0501+4516, is estimated to lie about 15,000 light-years away, and was undiscovered until its outburst gave it away. An outburst takes place when the unstable configuration of the magnetic field pulls the magnetar's crust, allowing matter to spew outwards in an exotic volcanic eruption. This matter tangles with the magnetic field which itself can change its configuration, releasing more energy. Magnetar outbursts CAN SUPPLY AS MUCH ENERGY TO EARTH AS SOLAR FLARES, despite the fact they are far across our Galaxy, whereas the Sun is at our celestial doorstep.

New insight into the Sun's mysterious quiet period - Sonograms of the Sun explain the mystery of the missing sunspots. Scientists have discovered that a solar jet stream deep inside the Sun is migrating slower than usual through the star's interior, giving rise to the current lack of sunspots and low solar activity. The Sun normally undergoes an 11-year cycle of magnetic activity related to sunspots, solar flares, and the interplanetary storms called coronal mass ejections. The current "solar minimum" quiet period has been UNUSUALLY LONG AND DEEP, confounding scientists. The Sun generates new jet streams near its poles every 11 years. The streams migrate slowly, over a period of 17 years, to the equator and are associated with the production of sunspots once they reach a critical latitude of 22°. The stream associated with the new solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking 3 years to cover a 10° range in latitude compared to 2 years for the last solar cycle, but has now reached the critical latitude. The current solar minimum has become so long and deep, some scientists have speculated the Sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all. The new result shows that the Sun's internal magnetic dynamo continues to operate and heralds the beginning of a new cycle of solar activity. "It is exciting to see that just as this sluggish stream reaches the usual active latitude of 22°, a year late, we finally begin to see new groups of sunspots emerging at the new active latitude." "This is an important piece of the solar activity puzzle. It shows how flows inside the Sun are related to the creation of solar activity and how the timing of the solar cycle might be produced. None of the forecasting research groups predicted the current long extended delay in the new cycle. There is a lot more to learn in order to understand how the Sun creates magnetic fields." [Yet there are still no sunspots on the sun right now.]

HEALTH THREATS -
'Something different" happening with new flu - Flu season could last all year this year in US. The new strain of H1N1 flu is causing "something different" to happen in the United States this year - perhaps an extended year-round flu season that disproportionately hits young people, health officials said on Thursday. An UNUSUALLY COOL late spring may be helping keep the infection going in the U.S. Northeast, especially densely populated areas in New York and Massachusetts. And infections among healthcare workers suggest that people are showing up at work sick - meaning that workplace policies may be contributing to its spread. So far the virus is causing mild to moderate disease, but it has killed at least 167 people and been confirmed in nearly 40,000 people globally. The United States has been hardest hit, with upward of 100,000 likely cases and probably far more, with 44 deaths and 1,600 hospitalized. "The fact that we are seeing ongoing transmission now indicates that we are seeing something different. And we believe that that may have to do with the complete lack of immunity to this particular virus among those that are most likely affected. And those are children." In areas that are the most affected up to 7 percent of the population has influenza-like illness.

Lab testing confirmed that pigs are susceptible to the new virus and that sick ones can transmit the virus successively to uninfected animals. Disease severity varied, but none of the pigs died. Researchers said the virus can become established in pig populations, but illness patterns could vary in the field.

Japan to shutter special flu clinics - Japan's health ministry will close special clinics for people with influenza infections in an effort to prevent people from overwhelming them in the fall if a more severe wave of the novel H1N1 virus strikes. Officials fear overcrowded clinics could delay treatment for those with severe illnesses. Sick patients will be treated at any medical clinic. The ministry also said it would scale back quarantine measures at entry ports to prepandemic levels.

Thursday, June 18, 2009 -

Do something. If it doesn't work, do something else. No idea is too crazy.
Jim Hightower

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/17/09 -
5.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - The Arenal volcano put on a great show for tourists and locals alike yesterday, with three major eruptions. The eruptions were said to be of "great intensity", as gas, rocks and ashes spewed out of the great colossus. The eruption was so intense that a group of 50 tourists in the national park had to be evacuated as a preventive measure. The Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica (Ovsicori) have been keeping a close eye on the volcano since 7am when activity increased considerably, including sending off tremors. "During the last few days there has been some movement, but short ones. Yesterday the volcano spewed out of the side of the national part." The first eruptions were intense and the following were much calmer.
Even though it wasn't much noticed, the Turrialba volcano, southeast of San José, generated more than normal activity yesterday.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Millions of people living and holidaying along the Mediterranean coast are at risk of being hit with a tsunami, a new report warns. The World Disasters Report, by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said there is no tsunami early-warning alert system for the region, even though it is considered to be MORE VULNERABLE THAN THE INDIAN OCEAN. "If you look at population density along the Mediterranean coast and the topography and what could happen with a major tsunami, the figures are self-evident. It would be absolutely catastrophic. Why we do not have an early warning system I do not understand. This is a real serious problem where millions of lives could be lost."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 03W was 279 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Bizarro June: What happened to New Jersey's weather? - It's something out of Bizarro World, the comic book planet where everything is reversed: As of Tuesday, Seattle, Washington, was in its 27th day of a dry spell. Their rain has been diverted to New Jersey. New Jersey already had four inches of rain for the month -- usually their average for June, but they're only at mid-month. It's not an exceptional rainfall, but the frequency is UNUSUAL. Nature has given them a FREAK show with a hailstorm in Bergen County. Jackets and sweaters have been retrieved from the back of closets, too, as temperatures are running below average for this time of year. The current pattern, set early in the season, tends to put the brakes on torrid temperatures later on too. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NIGERIA - recent (some twenty years back) climate behaviour has deviated from old climatologists, meteorologists, scientists and grandpas' Knowledge-pattern. "To this generation, Armageddon has come. Things have fallen apart and the centre can no more hold...Before our very eyes, rainfall patterns do not follow the maps of our minds. August spell has disappeared. Harmattan shows up when it wants and not according to what we were taught. Unpredictability is the order of the day. Orographic rainfall has given up to tsunami. " Drought as a manifestation of climate change is being experienced here in Nigeria where the desert is said to be advancing at 5m per year.

Detailed forecasts of how climate change may affect the UK during this century are to be released by the government later. The report will predict how temperature and rainfall are likely to change at regional and local scales. Scientists believe winters will be wetter, particularly in the north, and summers drier, especially in the south. The projected impacts are "WORSE THAN THE GOVERNMENT HAD FEARED," according to a source familiar with the project. "This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem." The UK impacts are likely to be minor compared to other parts of the world. The UK is among the 12 countries likely to be least affected by climate change.

Romania is among the world’s countries most threatened by sudden onset hazard, according to the Mortality Risk Index, a Global Platform for Disaster Reduction. Predictably, four large population countries – Bangladesh, China, India and Indonesia – occupy the ‘extreme’ category for average numbers of citizens at risk, followed by Colombia, Myanmar and Pakistan (‘major’) with the next listing (‘very high’) including: Afghanistan, Algeria, Congo (DR), Guatemala, Iran, Japan, Peru, Philippines, Romania and Uzbekistan.

HEALTH THREATS -
The number of novel H1N1 cases in Chile surged to 3,125. The number is 1,431 more than the total for Chile reported by the WHO on Jun 15. Chile has reported two deaths from the virus, which seems to be striking children the hardest: 64% of infections are reported in the 5- to 19-year-old age-group. Elsewhere in South America, Argentina reported three more deaths.

Australia moves to new pandemic alert level - The Australian Health Minister raised the country's pandemic response level from "contain" to "protect". The level is a new phase that was created to address the moderate severity of the novel H1N1 pandemic and is in line with the WHO's phase 6 declaration. The "protect" phase calls for an emphasis on treating people who have severe infections. States will phase in the new response level by Jun 26.

Health officials in New York City reported seven more novel H1N1 deaths, raising the total to 23. Few details were available about the latest victims, though the report said all were between the ages of 25 and 64 and that most were hospitalized in late May at the peak of the outbreak. Overall, of the 20 deceased patients whose history was known, 16 had underlying medical conditions that put them at higher risk.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009 -

It is better to confess ignorance than provide it.
Homer Hickam

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/16/09 -
5.7 BOUVET ISLAND REGION
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.2 SEA OF OKHOTSK

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - alert Level 3 as Arenal Volcano spews vapor. Scientists raised the volcanic alert of the Arenal Volcano in the north-central region of La Fortuna from 2b to 3 on a 4-level scale on Friday. Level 3, or “yellow alert,” means a probable eruption or strong changes in the eruption patterns in the next 10 days, upcoming weeks, or few months. Arenal could show “significant variations in the development of the volcanic process,” which could result in “an explosive eruption or damaging lava and rock flows.” Scientists reported an increase in vapor explosions, known as phreatic eruptions, since early March. After two and a half months of such activity, pyroclastic flows – fast moving currents of hot gas and rock – could begin to occur, one of the reasons for the alert.
Both Poás and Turrialba volcanoes have demonstrated phreatic eruptions in the past three years. The National Seismologic System and the UCR's geological investigation center have installed permanent vigilance systems in both locations.

ITALY - Giant volcano smoldering under the sea of Santorini - The under-water volcano, Columbus, situated 6.5 meters south-east of Santorini in the Aegean sea, is being observed with great interest by Greek and German scientists. They have registered constant earthquakes of 4 Richter, hot air eruptions and continuous changes in the sea floor around the crater. The volcano is 470 meters high and reaches down to 17 meters beneath the sea floor. Its crater’s width is out of proportion - 1.5 kilometers. Complex submarine equipment has shown that Columbus’s volcanic activity never stops. It is the reason for the frequent earthquakes and constant changes in the surface around the crater. “The distortion of the sea floor is minor but it can be seen on the walls of the crater and in the 10-15-kilometers perimeter around it.” This does not indicate an eruption in near future. The last eruption of Columbus was in 1650. “Reservoirs” filled with hot water, reaching 200 degrees centigrade, resembling under-water fireplaces and releasing different kinds of gases - mostly carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide - were found around the volcano. Another reservoir, 5 kilometers wide, is situated under the volcano, filled with magma. A liquid, boiling substance is being released by this reservoir, causing the earthquakes and the other phenomena observed by the scientists. To compare, the other volcano situated nearby is not causing any earthquakes, no release of submarine gases is observed and the gases evolving above the sea-surface have a temperature of 17 degrees centigrade, i. e., it is in a quiet stage. Columbus is part of the Santorini volcanic center, belonging to the Volcanic group of the South Aegean, together with Susaki, Metana, Milos and Nisiros. This group appeared around 13 years ago when the north part of the African tectonic slab began submerging under Aegean sea’s slab.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IRELAND - Shock as tornadoes tear through villages. Two mini tornadoes have twisted their way through the skies above Ireland in recent days. Stunned witnesses say that the FREAK WEATHER has appeared in both counties Clare and Roscommon.

COLORADO - A storm system with funnel clouds RARE for Denver dropped quarter-sized hail and a half inch of rain in 20 minutes.

ARKANSAS - A storm system that produced hurricane-like winds, toppling trees and damaging homes in much of the state Friday, was a RARE WEATHER PHENOMENON that occurs an average of once every 10 years. Winds topping 80 miles per hour roared through much of the northern half of the state Friday afternoon. Three people were injured by falling limbs and debris. Meteorologists called the system a "derecho," or a long-lived complex of thunderstorms that produces winds in excess of 70 miles per hour. They are more common in the northern plains. Saturated grounds from heavy rainfalls in May contributed to Friday's storms, causing a humid atmosphere. That moisture met with unstable warm air, causing the turbulent weather. The storms created a "bow echo," or backward "C" pattern of storms, which travels at least 100 miles, gaining strength. A tornado touched down in Conway County. The tornado was the 21st twister recorded in the state this year. Last year, by June 15, 2008, there were 69 tornadoes reported in Arkansas.

UNUSUAL COLD -
NEVADA - Northern Nevada's UNUSUAL COOL, WET weather in June could be related to an El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean, the first in more than five years. Warming of surface equatorial water temperatures point to a developing El Nino, which can be a strong engine for weather. And it’s happened UNUSUALLY QUICKLY. “It’s kind of impressive. It formed quickly. It kind of took me by surprise.” For a few months last winter, a weak La Nina — characterized by cooler ocean temperatures — held sway in the Pacific. Otherwise, conditions over the last year or more have tended toward neutral. But waters began to warm in May, with conditions shifting toward El Nino this month — a trend projected to continue at least into August. El Nino means “Christ child” or “boy” and was first used by Peruvian fishermen in the late 1800s to describe the warm current appearing off the west coast of Peru around Christmas. It’s early in the year for an El Nino to develop, meaning this could be a strong one. “When you do have a quick summer season increase, those do have the potential to become strong, well-constructed El Ninos." This month is already ONE OF THE WETTEST ON RECORD for Reno, with thunderstorms producing a string of eight consecutive days of measurable rain early in the month. “This is VERY UNUSUAL..The month of June is usually completely quiet. This is a REAL UNUSUAL situation and it’s UNUSUAL to see this any time in the summer. You have to go back 40 or 50 years.”

Every day in June has had severe weather in the United States, with most days having more than 100 reports, and 4 big days with more than 300 severe weather reports! So what’s going on? We’re in an UNUSUAL ATMOSPHERIC FLOW featuring an active west-to-east jet stream across the United States. Within the flow are numerous disturbances (areas of atmospheric lift) generating showers and thunderstorms, and not just in the Midwest. There have been thunderstorms in nearly all the western states every day this month! However, this is supposed to be the heart of the dry season for most of those areas. The active jet stream is being caused by UNUSUALLY COOL WEATHER across much of North America, and the ongoing battle of summer heat trying to push into that cool air. As an extreme example, the normal high in Phoenix is 104 degrees at this time of year, but most days have been in the 90s there and only 2 of the first 14 days this month have been near or above normal. Only south Texas, southern Louisiana and small areas of the southeastern states have had above normal warmth this month. The rest of the nation is near to below normal, and many areas are near to above normal in rainfall. There are no signs of change in the next 2 weeks as the unusually cool weather hangs tough over Canada and the northern United States while above normal warmth builds into the plains and southwestern states. Between the two air masses, the active jet stream will remain with numerous showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and daily threats for severe storms. The strange summer of 2009 continues…

Cool temperatures - So far, the trend toward a cool summer has been emphatic, with furnaces blasting through the first days of June across the state of Minnesota. The average daily temperature for the first 11 days of June in the Twin Cities was 7.2 degrees below normal. As of Friday, lilacs hadn't bloomed yet near Finland, Minn. They're usually out June 6. Across Minnesota and the Dakotas, temperatures could be below normal through the end of August, according to the federal Climate Prediction Center. The outlook for "meteorological summer" -- June, July and August -- prompted one Accuweather forecaster to predict a "year without summer." Meanwhile Chicago is experiencing a very cold summer as well. In fact it has been described by the WGN Weather Blog as "one for the record." So far this June is running more than 12 degrees cooler than last year, and the clouds, rain and chilly lake winds have been persistent. The average temperature at O'Hare International Airport through Friday has been only 59.5 degrees: nearly 7 degrees below normal and the COLDEST SINCE RECORDS THERE BEGAN 50 YEARS AGO. Think this unseasonably cold weather is happening just in the Midwest and Canada? Guess again. Even Botswana in Africa is reporting UNUSUALLY COLD weather.
The phenomena are caused by the a jet stream dropping deeper into the United States than is usual for this time of year. "Though summer doesn't officially start for another week, the run up has been most unseasonable...Driving the cold weather, since Memorial Day - the jet stream that has stayed farther south than usual." On the NBC News June 15 broadcast, they noted the PECULIAR WEATHER PATTERNS along the East Coast of the U.S. "The weather along the eastern seaboard has been more like Scotland in October lately. Then came the first of the Internet stories, some of them written by learned people in the weather field, wondering if summer as we know it was just not going to happen this year in some areas because of the high up air currents over this country that we can't see."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

HAWAII - RECORD HEAT. In the first fifteen days of the month the temperature at Honolulu International Airport has either tied or broken a previous record high. The 92 degrees registered at the airport Monday was yet another record, breaking the previous one of 90 degrees all the way back in 1982. The heat is the result of high pressure parked about 500 miles farther to the south in the Pacific Ocean than what’s normal this time of year. The closer high pressure moves to the state, the weaker tradewinds become. The UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN is not affecting all parts of the state equally. While temperatures on the Windward side may feel about average for June, areas of Leeward Oahu are a lot hotter.

WASHINGTON - Monday was Day 27 of an UNUSUAL SPRING DRY SPELL on the North Olympic Peninsula and, indeed, throughout Western Washington. No precipitation has been recorded in June at any of the weather stations across the North Olympic Peninsula. The record dry spell in the May-June period is 29 days set in 1982. The overall record for consecutive dry days at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport -- where the Weather Service's best historical records are kept -- is 51, set in July and August 1951.

INDIA - The Met office has been hard-pressed to explain the sudden disappearance of the monsoon rains post-cyclone Aila. The cyclone that wreaked havoc in south Bengal is the culprit, they say. It has sucked out the moisture-laden winds and left the Gangetic Bengal plains high and dry. There seems to be no respite from the scorching heat for several more days. Temperature will hover around the 36 degree mark and could even push 40 over the next one week. "If the low-pressure persists and there is more rain, then the monsoon might return." The STRANGE departure of the monsoon, after the declaration that it was at the doorstep, has been described as a "RARE PHENOMENON" by experts. "Monsoon was well on course till May 25 and had been heading towards Kolkata. Then Aila happened and the moisture disappeared, halting its journey. Unless a low-pressure trough precipitates rainfall now, the warm spell will continue. So, it can be said that the monsoon has arrived but it remains inactive." Some weather experts sad it was not just moisture but an energy transfer from the monsoon to Aila that has stalled the rains. "Technically, this is called the energy cascading effect. When a disturbance happens, energy gets transferred to that from the bigger system, which is the monsoon and it gets weaker. This is exactly what has happened." "We need an infusion of moisture that hasn't been happening since the Aila. The advance of the south-west monsoon is not a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of winds over the north Indian Ocean. With each surge, the rainfall activity gets revived and the rain belt shifts towards the north and north-east. Each wet spell is normally followed by a dry period of 6-8 days during which rainfall remains low and the northward journey of the monsoon gets halted." This time, the dry period has got prolonged. "This is a summer-like situation or a revival of summer. The low-pressure troughs have moved towards the foothills of Bengal leaving the rest of the state dry. Monsoon will be activated sooner rather than later but this is indeed STRANGE. Aila was not a super cyclone, only a very strong one. I CAN'T RECALL CYCLONES SUCKING UP MOISTURE LIKE THIS."

HEALTH THREATS -
Brazilian scientists have identified a new strain of the H1N1 virus after examining samples from a patient in Sao Paulo. The variant has been called A/Sao Paulo/1454/H1N1. The mutation was comprised of alterations in the Hemagglutinin protein which allows the virus to infect new hosts. It was not yet known whether the new strain was more aggressive than the current A(H1N1) virus which has been declared pandemic by the World Health Organisation. 36,000 people in 76 countries have been infected with the H1N1 virus, causing 163 deaths.

Qatar, Jordan, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Samoa report first cases of novel H1N1 flu.
The West Bank/Gaza Strip, Morocco and Croatia reported their first cases previously.

U.S. - Feds eye schools as potential flu vaccination sites. Schoolchildren may be a top priority if federal officials decide to use novel H1N1 flu vaccines. School superintendents are being asked to collaborate on plans for possibly using schools for mass vaccination sites.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009 -

The most important decision we make is whether we believe we live in a friendly or hostile universe.
Albert Einstein

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/15/09 -
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

'Teenage' Andes could collapse - The largest mountain chain on the American continent is shrinking in some areas. A new study by a group of Argentine researchers suggests that the largest mountain chain on the American continent is not as quiet as it seems. Some mountains are losing altitude. "We found that parts of the Andes are undergoing a cycle of collapse which started some 6 million years ago." The reduction in height is taking place in the Argentine provinces of Mendoza and Neuquen, but elsewhere the mountain chain is actually growing, for example in San Juan. Most of the world's mountain ranges are older than the Andes, which border the Pacific Ocean for some 7,500 km. "The Andes are alive." The shifting Andes are a product of subduction. Subduction zones are areas where one of the Earth's tectonic plates sinks beneath another, generating huge forces. The sites are also where the largest and most destructive earthquakes on the planet occur when there is a sudden release of the stress produced when parts of the two plates stick to each other. Deep underground, the floor of the Pacific Ocean supports the continental shelf on which the Andes rest: but at a strange angle. "The Andes were formed because the bottom of the Pacific Ocean went under the South American continent at an angle of approximately 30 degrees on average. But there are some places where the ocean floor goes in horizontally, increasing the friction and pushing up the mountain range above, as at the Cordillera Blanca of Peru". But every 5 to 10 million years the ocean floor begins to slide under the continental shelf at an angle causing the mountain range above it to crumble. In theory the Andes could disappear. "Before the Andes were formed there were numerous Andean chains that ran along the edge of South America and many of these chains suffered cycles of collapse." Sometimes these mountains collapsed into the sea; a process that 26m years ago led to the formation of the Drake Passage, the stretch of water that separates the American continent and Antarctica. In theory, the reverse process could generate the largest mountain in America. However, the process of gravity makes it unlikely that any mountain higher than 8km can be formed. Whatever happens the results will not be seen for another 20m or 30m years, "by which time man will have evolved into another species."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Megacities ripe for 'megadisaster' - Some of the world's biggest cities are at growing risk of "megadisasters", the UN's humanitarian chief said today, warning that climate change was behind a rising number of natural catastrophes. "The trends in disasters particularly from climate change are of enormous concern. We can only expect that this trend is going to continue." Some 90 per cent of disasters are of climatic origin, caused by storms, floods, drought or other extreme weather conditions, according to the UN's weather agency. Some of the world's biggest cities housing millions of people were highly exposed to disasters, being located in coastal areas that would be threatened by rising sea levels, or in earthquake zones. "The risks of megadisasters in some of these megacities are rising all the time," and they predict a lot more deaths in future natural disasters. Megacities include Tokyo, with a population of more than 35 million, and Mumbai, New Delhi, Mexico City and Sao Paulo with more than 20 million inhabitants each.

How will climate change affect where you live in the U.S.? - this link lists some of what the “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” report sees as already happening in various parts of the country and predicts will occur unless changes are made. This online site offers localized information: It divides the country into eight areas and lets you click on your region to see possible impacts.

Monday, June 15, 2009 -

An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage,
concludes that it will also make better soup.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/14/09 -
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.7 BALI SEA

TEXAS - The City Council of Cleburne Texas is hiring a geology consultant to study if natural gas drilling is causing the FIRST RECORDED EARTHQUAKES IN A 140-YEAR HISTORY of the town. Since the beginning of June four earthquakes below a magnitude of 2.8 have been recorded. "We haven't had a quake in recorded history, and all the sudden you drill and there are earthquakes." The council is concerned about a drilling technique called "fracking" in which high-pressure water streams are injected into the ground, it fractures the layers of shale and makes the rock release natural gas trapped in it.

Since 2004, an array of 400 seismometers has been slowly moving across the United States, from west to east. The stations are in place for two years, and then they are moved eastward. In addition to recording data on earthquakes, scientists can gather important information about the Earth's inner structure. Seconds after a significant earthquake, geophysicists around the world can access the information recorded by each of the stations to learn more about that part of the Earth. 43 earthquake recording stations will be placed in Missouri and southern Iowa in 2010-2011.

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Chaiten volcano - It lay dormant for 9,000 years before erupting spectcularly without warning a year ago, spewing ash 12 miles into the air. And now, Chaiten volcano is threatening an entire town in Chile’s southern Patagonia region. Still, some residents of the town of Chaiten defy orders to move. In February, the volcano exploded with renewed fury and split open a one-kilometer gap on the south side of the volcano’s dome, prompting the government to order an indefinite evacuation for the roughly 200 residents who had returned over the past year. Scientists say the volcano could remain active for decades. Chilean officials also announced that this year they would begin to rebuild the provincial capital six miles to the north of Chaiten, in Santa Barbara, a coastal village with a port and high mountains to shield it from the volcano. But about 70 Chaiten residents stubbornly refuse to leave, living day to day without running water or electricity, as their lawyers attempt to prevent the government from forcibly removing them. At least 10 times a day, there are earthquakes, with recent tremors measuring as high as 4.2 on the Richter scale. The volcano’s dome collapses over and over, seemingly every hour. Apart from the holdouts, most of the 7,000 people that formerly populated Chaiten have since sought refuge in other Chilean cities and towns. Some had completely lost their homes when a lahar, a mudslide generated by the accumulation of volcanic material, caused the Blanco River that runs through the center of town to overflow and flood vast areas. Now, as the Southern Hemisphere winter months draw near, rainfall will significantly rise, bringing the threat of new floods. The government is warning that the volcano could ultimately cause the Blanco River to forever sink the entire town.

COLUMBIA - The Pasto Observatory of Vulcanology and Seismology dropped the alert on the Galeras volcano, located near the south Colombian city of Pasto, from red to orange. This means that "eruptions will probably finish in days or weeks". Orange alert will maintain all the emergency measures currently in place. Authorities had called a red alert last Sunday and ordered some 8,000 people living in the vicinity of the volcano to evacuate. There have been no further eruptions since Monday.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND's top disaster expert once foretold the 2004 tsunami. Now he says the nation's capital will be submerged by 2030. By 2030, much of Bangkok will lie under 1.5 meters (5 feet) of seawater. Polar ice melting has the world’s sea level rising at more than one-tenth of an inch per year, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bangkok’s steel and concrete buildings, which weigh down on soft clay underneath, are causing the capital to sink more than 3 inches per year on average. And many natural flood buffers, such as coastal mangroves, were replaced with cement long ago. The low-lying city will take on more than .75 meters (2.5 feet) of water every 10 years. In 2100, by his projections, Bangkok will be Atlantis. He is calling for a massive dike spanning the Gulf of Thailand, a roughly $2.8 billion USD project by his estimation. But to save Bangkok, construction must begin almost immediately, he insists. High tide already brings a rush of salt water into this seaside city almost every morning. While taxis slosh through filthy puddles, dozens of rusty pipes and generators begin pumping floodwaters back into the bay. And by late morning, the pools have receded through gutter grates and the roads are dry. Flooding is already a fact of life in Samut Prakan, an urban port roughly 16 kilometers (10 miles) from Bangkok proper. While no one disagrees that Bangkok is sinking, other meteorologists strike a less urgent tone. They say the sea will flow and recede with Thailand’s rainy and dry seasons, leaving the area uninhabitable for only about 60 days a year.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

YEMEN - Two people have died and others suffered fainting over the last two days as a result of the second worst heat wave in the last three years to hit Yemen's port city of Aden. Power problems such as persistent cut-offs helped worsen the situation in Aden leading to discomfort among the patients in Aden, which is witnessing a high temperature associated with high humidity. The electrical current is cut off five times a day, affecting those people with dangerous diseases. Even though the electrical current is available, air conditioners have become insufficient to ease the heat wave amid high prices of electricity. Two years ago, a strong heat wave hit the city, claiming the lives of 24 people, most of them were elderly people.

HEALTH THREATS -
Swiss drugs company Novartis will not give free vaccines against H1N1 flu to poor countries, though it will consider discounts. The director-general of the World Health Organization has called for drugs companies to show solidarity with poor countries as they develop vaccines against the pandemic H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu. As well as Novartis, U.S. company Baxter International and Europe's Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay are working on vaccines.

The WHO Director General said in a press conference declaring the pandemic - “Countries should prepare to see cases, or the further spread of cases, in the near future. Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection. Guidance on specific protective and precautionary measures has been sent to ministries of health in all countries. Countries with no or only a few cases should remain vigilant. Influenza pandemics, whether moderate or severe, are remarkable events because of the almost universal susceptibility of the world’s population to infection." She underlined the necessity for governments to remain on the alert as to this issue, and not consider the outbreak over. In most such cases, after the first wave of infections, a second, larger one occurs, which is usually met with less determination because the resources used for the first one have been assigned elsewhere. Additionally, in future infection waves, health experts could be facing a new and improved viral strain, which could become even more damaging to the human body, and harder to kill. This strain has the potential to rapidly mutate into a more deadly form, especially in the equatorial and tropical regions, where it lingers all year around. In temperate climates, such as that of Europe, South and North America, Japan, and parts of Asia and Australia, the flu only breaks out during specific months, and authorities are better prepared at that time.

Sunday, June 14, 2009 -

Nothing is so good for an ignorant man as silence;
and if he was sensible of this he would not be ignorant.
Saadi

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/13/09 -
5.6 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
6/12/09 -
5.5 BANDA SEA
5.2 VANUATU
6.0 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - A volcanic eruption on a remote Russian island north of Japan has created a giant ash cloud that threatens passing airplanes. The eruption of Sarychev Peak on uninhabited Matua Island, part of the Kuril Islands archipelago in the north Pacific Ocean, began overnight Thursday-Friday and is still underway. It has formed an ash cloud eight kilometres (five miles) high which has spread 310 kilometres to the west. Sarychev Peak is one of the most active volcanos on the Kuril Islands, a seismically active archipelago that runs northeast from Japan's Hokkaido Island to Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. The southernmost four islands in the archipelago are disputed between Russia and Japan.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEALTH THREATS -
A patient suffering from swine flu died today in hospital in Scotland, in the first death of a patient with the virus outside the Americas.

The Thai Prime Minister urged the country not to panic about swine flu, after the number of cases grew ninefold in four days and a cluster emerged in a key tourist hub.

Friday, June 12, 2009 -

THE FIRST PANDEMIC OF THE 21ST CENTURY is in progress - alert has finally reached the highest level.

Ignorance and inconsideration are the two great causes of the ruin of mankind.
John Tillotson (1694)

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/11/09 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.7 WEST CHILE RISE
5.1 WEST CHILE RISE
5.0 LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6/10/09 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Supervolcano may be brewing beneath Mount St Helens - Peering under the volcano has revealed what may be an extraordinarily large zone of semi-molten rock, which would be capable of feeding a giant eruption. The measurements revealed a column of conductive material that extends downward from the volcano. About 15 kilometres below the surface, the relatively narrow column appears to connect to a much bigger zone of conductive material. This larger zone was first identified in the 1980s, and was found to extend all the way to beneath Mount Rainier 70 kilometres to the north-east, and Mount Adams 50 kilometres to the east. The new measurements show an apparent conduit connecting this conductive zone to Mount St Helens. If the structure beneath the three volcanoes is indeed a vast bubble of partially molten rock, it would be comparable in size to the biggest magma chambers ever discovered, such as the one below Yellowstone National Park. Every few hundred thousand years, such chambers can erupt as so-called supervolcanoes - the Yellowstone one did so about 640,000 years ago. These enormous eruptions can spew enough sunlight-blocking ash into the atmosphere to cool the climate by several degrees Celsius. Could Mount St Helens erupt like this? "A really big, big eruption is possible if it is one of those big systems like Yellowstone. I don't think it will be tomorrow, but I couldn't try to predict when it would happen."

HAWAII - Kilauea Volcano - Swirling, churning, bubbling, and brewing - a rare look directly below the surface of Halemaumau crater reveals the first active lava lake seen in years. And park rangers say it's creating the biggest and brightest glow at the volcano's summit since October of 2008. "Not only is it a sight to behold, but at times, when you're at Jagger museum, the earth shudders. We actually hear the gas bubbles burst and the rock fall into the lava lake." What makes this latest activity different, is that after years of oozing lava from its side, Kilauea is now spewing from the top. This latest activity also leaves many wondering - will the lava come bubbling up from the crater? Right now, the molten lava is not bubbling up to the surface. Scientists say the molten lava is about 300 feet below the crater floor. The vent is expanding. While no lava has boiled over yet, the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park already considers this an eruption. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Typhoons trigger "imperceptible" earthquakes, and potentially reduce the number of more powerful ones. In a seismically active zone in Taiwan, pressure changes caused by typhoons "unclamp" the fault. This gentle release causes an earthquake that dissipates its energy over several hours rather than a few potentially devastating seconds. The researchers believe this could explain why there are relatively few large earthquakes in this region. Instruments picked up 20 "slow earthquakes", each lasting from several hours to more than a day. Of these, 11 co-incided exactly with typhoons. The authors described the possibility that this coincident timing was by chance as "vanishingly small". In Taiwan, the colliding plates move so rapidly that they build mountains at a rate of almost 4mm per year. In geological terms that is almost like "growing mushrooms". The fault "dips steeply" westward from near the east coast so that it is under the land area. So the landward side is under constant strain to move upward. When a typhoon passes over the land, the air pressure on the land is lowered. That slight change in force "unclamps" the fault and allows it to move. "But this change is quite small. So for the typhoon to be a trigger, the fault must be precariously close to failure."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
MINNESOTA - A RECORD June chill - Highs were below 60 for 3 days in a row last week, the first time that's happened in June since 1951. There have been only 3 other years since 1872 where the temperature has stayed below 60 degree for 3 straight days in June -- 1917, 1935 and 1937.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Chalk up another casualty of climate change: Wind speeds in many parts of the U.S. seem to be decreasing, which could make life tougher for the wind industry. A study to be published later this summer says that climate change has led to lower average wind speeds in the Midwest and eastern part of the U.S. If true - and the study goes against what most computer models predict will happen - it seems to be because rising temperatures at the poles change pressure patterns around the globe, which leads to less wind. "It’s a very large effect." In some places in the Midwest, the trend shows a 10 percent drop or more over a decade. That adds up when the average wind speed in the region is about 10 to 12 miles per hour. There’s been a jump in the number of low or no wind days in the Midwest. States such as Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas, Virginia, Louisiana, Georgia, northern Maine and western Montana show some of the biggest drop in wind speeds. The study’s authors say it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, though there is evidence that climate change is leading to shifting wind patterns elsewhere, too. In England, there are signs climate change is leading to higher wind speeds in the English Channel.

HEALTH THREATS -
WHO declares THE FIRST PANDEMIC OF THE 21ST CENTURY - The World Health Organization has declared a global flu pandemic after holding an emergency meeting. It means the swine flu virus is spreading in at least two regions of the world with rising cases being seen in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile. The move does not mean the virus is causing more severe illness or more deaths. The swine flu (H1N1) virus first emerged in Mexico in April and has since spread to 74 countries. There have been nearly 30,000 cases globally and 141 deaths, with figures rising daily. Hong Kong said it was closing all its nurseries and primary schools for two weeks following 12 school cases. The current pandemic seems to be moderate and causing mild illness in most people. But most cases are occurring in young working age adults and a third to a half of complications are presenting in otherwise healthy people. It is the FIRST FLU PANDEMIC IN 40 YEARS - the last in 1968 killed about one million people. This one is a new version of the H1N1 strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic. The WHO does not recommend closure of borders or any restrictions on the movement of people, goods or services. But the picture could change very quickly. "No other pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely." "Let me stress: this is a formal statement about the geographical spread of the disease ... It is not in itself a cause for alarm." One factor which has prompted the move to a level six pandemic was that in the southern hemisphere, the virus seems to be crowding out normal seasonal influenza. "There is concern that the virus might mutate in the southern hemisphere over its winter and become more virulent, but there's no sign of that yet."

"The scientific criteria for a pandemic have been met. The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic." Most cases have been mild and the epidemic has been moderate in relatively well-off countries, but a "bleaker picture" may emerge as it spreads in poor countries.

The latest case count for novel H1N1 influenza worldwide: 28,774 cases and 144 deaths in 74 countries, up 1,037 cases and 3 deaths from yesterday's numbers. Countries reporting the greatest increase in laboratory-confirmed cases since yesterday were Mexico (524 new cases), Britain (156), Australia (83), Japan (33), and China (32).

Researchers say H1N1 virus jumped to humans months ago - the novel H1N1 virus responsible has been circulating undetected in humans for months - and its components have been present in pigs for at least a decade. The findings demonstrate the critical need to ramp up disease-detection efforts in animals: "Despite widespread influenza surveillance in humans, the lack of systematic swine surveillance allowed for the undetected persistence and evolution of this potentially pandemic strain for many years." If better surveillance had existed, the first flu pandemic in 41 years might have been detected much earlier - because the novel H1N1 strain's evolution tracks with the emergence of earlier and (as yet) more destructive pandemic strains. "All three pandemics of the 20th century seem to have been generated by a series of multiple reassortment events in swine or humans, and to have emerged over a period of years before pandemic recognition." The eight genomic segments of the novel H1N1 have been circulating in swine populations for a number of years, from 9.24 years at the shortest to 17.15 years at the outside. The complete virus, they estimate, has been circulating in humans since approximately January 2009, and may have emerged as early as August 2008. Movement of live pigs between Eurasia and North America is likely to have facilitated viral reassortment.

UTAH - wet weather over the past several weeks means there is potential for an increased mosquito population across the state. Some districts found more mosquitoes with the virus during this same time period last year, but it's UNUSUAL to have mosquitoes test positive across the state this early in the year. Finding that much West Nile now could lead to a frightening scenario later. "We don't have a large database to draw from, I think this is about the 6th year we've seen it in the state. But those years when we found it very early in June or the last of May have been years that in local areas we've had our worst West Nile virus human cases."

No update Thursday, June 11.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009 -

Ignorance is the night of the mind, but a night without moon and star.
Confucius

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/9/09 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

TEXAS - A massive crack in the earth opened up last week in Claude, Texas and it's creating a stir among geologists. Geologists said Tuesday the crack was a joint in the earth's crust. They believe the opening is the result of a weak point in the joint where one spot slips away from the other. Some parts measure more than 30-feet deep and it drained what used to be a pond. Experts say earth cracks are common but the size of the crack in Claude is not. (photo)

TEXAS - Residents of a town in north-central Texas have reported hearing a clap of thunder that turned out to be an earthquake rather than stormy weather. The U.S. Geological Survey says the tremor at 8:02 a.m. Monday registered 2.3-magnitude and was centered about 1 mile west of Cleburne. After the sound of a thunder clap, residents reported hearing a low rumble for about two seconds. No damage nor injuries were reported in the community south of Fort Worth. The tremor comes a day after a 2.6-magnitude tremor was reported late Sunday about 4 miles east of Cleburne. A 2.8-magnitude quake hit Cleburne last Tuesday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Certain phases of the moon maybe partly to blame for the strengthening of a cyclone. Between 1950 and 2007, storms were more likely to form right after the new moon and also intensify 49% more often after a new moon than at any other time in the 29.5-day lunar cycle. About 20% more hurricanes and typhoons formed near new and full moon than near the quarters during a 78-yr period, showing a stronger peak at new moon than at full moon. Interestingly enough, during the same 78 yr. period, the North Atlantic tropical storms that did not later become hurricanes tended to form near the lunar quarters.
"It's not enough to have a pattern in the data. You need to have a mechanism to explain it." Just as the moon pulls on earth's oceans and creates the tides, it also tugs on the air above it. Lunar atmospheric tides are thought to be weak, but could create favorable conditions for storms to strengthen. The moon's gravity may also pull cosmic dust into earth's atmosphere in a cyclical fashion, perhaps seeding cloud formation and precipitation.The most promising explanation is internal tides encouraged by the lunar cycle. The currents beneath the ocean surface could circulate warm water up underneath a storm, supplying it with the energy it needs to intensify.

INDIA - An early but weak monsoon has put Calcutta on a sticky wicket. Hot, humid and very uncomfortable — that’s the weatherman’s pitch report for the next 48 to 72 hours as the city stares at cloudy skies without a trace of rain. Monday’s maximum temperature was 37.5 degree Celsius, two points above normal. But what left the city drained was the high discomfort index of 66 degree Celsius, 11 points above normal. The trigger for the sweat surge is apparently a FREAK WEATHER PHENOMENON. A low-pressure belt that had formed over the northern Bay of Bengal, and was expected to move northward into Bengal and activate the monsoon flow, SUDDENLY TOOK A DETOUR and hit Myanmar. Blame it all on Aila, the cyclone that not only brought monsoon earlier than usual to the east but also “DRASTICALLY” ALTERED ITS PATTERN. “Aila has changed the monsoon flow in these parts this year to the extent that you have clouds but no rain, and there is no respite in sight for at least two-three days. Calcutta and its neighbourhood will continue to have cloudy skies, and the discomfort level will be very high." A senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department in Pune added: “The monsoon wind is weaker than normal right now, and we do not expect to see a revival of its activity over the next two or three days.” The monsoon’s gradual movement over India is influenced by the formation of low pressure zones in the northern Bay of Bengal. “In a typical monsoon season, we expect to see three or four such low pressure formations, but we haven’t had a single once since cyclone Aila."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
The midwestern U.S. has felt unseasonable cold so far this summer. In Green Bay, Wisconsin, the high temperature for Saturday was a RECORD-BREAKING 52 degrees, the lowest temperature ever for June 6. The high temperature for the day was reached at 9:50 a.m. and replaced the old mark of 53 set in 1943. Similar RECORD LOWS WERE SET ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE on Monday, with Manitowoc's high breaking the record of 56 set in 1935. In central Wisconsin, records were set in Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield and Merrill, all breaking marks set in 1935. Meanwhile, parts of North Dakota were hit by snow over the weekend, marking one of the first times snow was recorded in the state in June.

WYOMING - Natrona County has been plagued with a cold start to the summer season, according to figures from the National Weather Service. "[The weather] is UNUSUAL. Not unheard of, but unusual. In 1995, Casper had several inches of snow June 8 and 9, but it has been quite a while." One good thing about a chilly start to summer: less chance of flooding. "When we remain cool like this, the snowpack doesn't come down very fast." Although temperatures may approach freezing, the National Weather Service doesn't expect it to dip under 32 degrees this week. Outdoor plants should survive as long as temperatures remain above that mark.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SYRIA on Monday adopted emergency measures, including food distribution, to help people in the drought-hit northeast of the country. Syria's northeast has been affected by drought for the past three years and 160 villages were abandoned by their inhabitants in 2007 and 2008 because of the climate change.

The number of category 5 natural disasters in the world (based on their financial and human impact) increased to 40 in 2008, the HIGHEST ON RECORD. "Of the monsoon floods, hurricanes and typhoons that contributed to the total, only one event - the June 2008 earthquake in Japan - was not weather-related. " Otherwise, 672 (82%) of the 750 natural disasters worldwide in 2008 were weather-related. These include Hurricane Gustav, the monsoon floods in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, and Typhoon Fengshen in The Philippines. The world has witnessed a significant rise in hydrological events (floods, flash floods, mass movements), meteorological events (tropical and extra tropical storms) and incidence of extreme temperatures (heat wave, drought, wildfire). In fact, the annual average number of hydrological events worldwide has tripled since the 1980s and meteorological and climate events nearly doubled. Three of the four "great natural disasters" in 2008 happened in Asia and over 80% of the catastrophes were weather-related. Asia bore 98% of all fatalities and 59% of all economic losses. Greenpeace noted that the destruction caused by Cyclone Aila, the cyclone that hit Bengal recently, was in consonance with scientific predictions of more frequent and damaging storms because of climate change.

The godfather of hurricane forecasting - Last year, Colorado State University said it'll no longer promote the work of Dr. William Gray. Is it trying to silence the godfather of hurricane forecasting? Gray has been an effective voice offering inconvenient truths debunking Al Gore's climate disaster theories. In a memo to colleagues after CSU officials informed him that media relations would no longer promote his forecasts after 2008, Gray wrote: "This is a flimsy excuse and seems to me to be a cover for the department's capitulation to the desires of some who want to rein in my global-warming criticisms." And critical he has been. At last year's National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, Gray called Gore a "gross alarmist." "He's one of those guys that preaches end-of-the-world type of things. I think he's doing a great disservice, and he doesn't know what he's talking about." Gray says fluctuations in hurricane intensity and frequency have nothing to do with carbon dioxide levels or human activity, but with natural variations in ocean currents. He points out that 101 hurricanes occurred from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared with 83 from 1957 to 2006, when the earth warmed. Regarding moves to establish a climate change curriculum in public schools, Gray said: "We're brainwashing our children. They're going to the Gore movie and being fed all this. It's ridiculous." More recently at the University of North Carolina, Gray told meteorology students, "The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major impact on global temperatures." "It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong," Gray once said. "But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
BRAZIL may cut this year’s corn output forecast for a third consecutive time in July as a frost in Center South states damaged the beans following a drought. Corn growers may harvest less than the 49.9 million metric tons forecast announced, as frost in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states damaged the beans in the past two weeks. “It’s a worrying situation as corn has already suffered with a severe drought. Still, it’s too early to know the size of the damage.”

CALIFORNIA, already in a critical water shortage, is looking at further water reductions.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
A sharp increase in swine flu cases in Australia may push WHO to finally announce a flu pandemic. It would be the first such pandemic announced in four decades. Less than a month ago Australia had only a handful of cases of the H1N1 virus but it now has the highest number of infections outside North America. More than 1,200 people have contracted the virus in Australia, a four-fold increase in a week. There have been no swine flu fatalities in Australia - yet.

The global count of novel H1N1 influenza cases reached 26,563, an increase of 1,275 since yesterday. The death toll increased by 1, to 140, while the number of affected countries stayed the same at 73.

As the number of confirmed novel H1N1 cases in Scotland soared to 232, officials discussed the idea of vaccinating all of the country's children. Though no final decisions on vaccine prioritization have been made, a government spokesperson said children and healthcare workers will likely be in the top tier and that the goal is to vaccinate all Scottish citizens by the middle of 2010.

Serious H1N1 cases in Canadian Inuits raise concern - health experts are closely monitoring novel H1N1 influenza infections in Canada's Inuit populations, following reports that the communities are seeing more than their share of severe cases. 26 people were being treated in intensive care units for suspected novel influenza infections, which is UNUSUAL for an influenza outbreak. More than half of the patients are of aboriginal descent, with an average age of 35. "We can say now that we know a larger number than expected of young Inuit people developed serious illnesses and had to get hospitalized." WHO doesn't know if the trend is linked to socioeconomic factors, genetic factors, or chronic underlying diseases. Inuit groups were hit hard in some earlier pandemics. Tthe International Society for Disease Surveillance said that the severe cases in Canada's Inuit populations are puzzling. However, among remote populations, the 1918 pandemic influenza was more severe and didn't follow the age patterns seen in the rest of the world. "Inuit groups didn't show the same apparent sparing of the elderly." Officials don't know if higher rates of chronic illnesses in today's Inuit populations are playing a role in the high number of severe cases. However, Health Canada reports that when compared to the rest of the nation, First Nations and Inuit people have 1.5 times the rate of heart disease, 3 to 5 times the rate of type 2 diabetes, and 8 to 10 times the rate of tuberculosis infection. Yesterday, an Australian health expert from Darwin warned that Australia's indigenous populations might be at greater risk for novel H1N1 infections. The signals coming out of Canada are worrying. "The less developed world may have a terrible experience with this, though there is a lot of coughing and sneezing in the rest of the world."

Tuesday, June 9, 2009 -

There are many things of which a wise man might wish to be ignorant.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/8/09 -
5.5 ACRE, BRAZIL
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.6 OFFSHORE HONDURAS
5.3 TONGA REGION

BRITAIN - An earthquake that shook South Wales was the BIGGEST TO HIT THE REGION IN MORE THAN THREE DECADES. A tremor measuring 3.0 on the Richter scale shook houses and made lights flicker in the Bridgend area, prompting a flood of calls to the police. The epicentre of the quake, which happened shortly before 9pm on Friday has been identified by experts as Nantyffyllon, near Maesteg in Bridgend county. Some of the reports made by residents included, “the whole house creaked and it felt like it moved” and “the experience felt like a car had collided with the house”. Although the nearest boundary in the earth’s crust, or tectonic plates, is the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, quakes still occur when stresses within the tectonic plates are relieved by movement on fault planes.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Sangiang, a volvano in Bima Regency, West Nusa Tenggara has been closed for hiking. There have been sounds of eruption since last Thursday. The mountain's status is on alert. Since last month, 13 quakes occur every day with white smoke coming out from the mountain.

COLUMBIA - Colombia's Galeras volcano erupted on Monday for the second time in 24 hours, showering villages in the surrounding area with ash, but causing no damage or injuries. Authorities ordered 8,000 residents to evacuate the area. No immediate impact was reported on the country's coffee crops. Galeras, which has registered minor eruptions in recent years, is closely observed because of the threat it poses to nearby populations. Eight eruptions have rattled the volcano so far this year.

ALASKA - The Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage says the lava dome within the volcano's crater appears unstable and could fail with little or no warning.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - On Sunday, Suffolk was saturated by the heaviest rainfall since early February and a string of BIZARRE WEATHER PHENOMENA, which included twisters, hailstorms and lightning strikes. The weekend's weird weather stood in stark contrast to the weekend before, where residents enjoyed near uninterrupted sunshine and temperatures which soared up to 27 degrees Celsius. “The remainder of this week is going to be changeable with more raining coming...It won't improve until the end of the week when a small cyclone will form over the UK, which will give us good weather." The bad weather was caused by a depression which moved across East Anglia on its way from Plymouth to the Humber estuary.

CHINA - Heavy storms have caused serious damage in China. 27 people were killed when the storms swept through five provinces in central and eastern China over the past few days. Nearly four-and-a-half million people's homes have been damaged or destroyed by gales, hail and heavy rain, especially in the Henan and Anhui provinces. More than 341,000 hectares of crops have been damaged. The storms have already caused an estimated 2.2 billion yuan in losses, that’s over 300 million USD. Winds reached 104 kilometers per hour in Yongcheng City, Henan – the FASTEST RECORDED SPEED SINCE 1957. Meteorologists also say the extreme weather is RARE in these areas.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NORTH DAKOTA - While many throughout the country were enjoying summer-like weather this past Saturday, the residents of Dickinson, N.D. had snow. At least 2 inches of the white stuff fell from the skies and surprised the residents of Dickinson. It was THE FIRST TIME IN 60 YEARS that Dickinson had seen snow past May. It is UNUSUAL that North Dakota has seen snow beyond June.The last time area residents of the North Dakota town saw snow at this time of year was in 1951.

HEALTH THREATS -
The world tally of novel H1N1 cases rose to 25,288, including 139 deaths, in 73 countries. The list includes the first cases from the Cayman Islands, Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United Arab Emirates.

Proposal to divert BioShield money into flu effort draws fire - The leaders of a bipartisan commission on weapons of mass destruction criticized President Obama's proposal to use $3 billion in Project BioShield money to battle novel H1N1 influenza. Leaders of the commission asserted that using the BioShield funds for the flu threat would reduce US preparedness for WMD attacks.

Monday, June 8, 2009 -

An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.
Victor Hugo

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/7/09 -
5.2 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
5.5 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 VANUATU REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG



VANUATU - A strong quake centered 25 miles (45 km) west of Vanuatu’s capital of Port-Vila injured four people on Wednesday and caused damage to buildings and a water supply system. Authorities on the small island of Tangoa said the 6.3 magnitude shaking left residents there without fresh water. “We have a problem with water, because here we live with rainwater that's collected into the crown well, so when the crown well is destroyed or damaged from the earthquake we have a big problem." Some landslides were triggered by the quake, and cracks appeared in walls. Powerful undersea earthquakes often occur near Vanuatu, but few ever cause damage or are even noticed by those living in the archipelago. (map)

GREECE - Property damage was reported Sunday in Greece following an undersea earthquake at midday that measured 4.2 on the open-ended Richter scale. Seismologists at the Athens Observatory put the epicenter of the quake, which struck at 0900 GMT, at a point 150 kilometers west of Athens in the Corinthian Gulf, off the city of Aigio. The tremor was felt throughout the north of the Peloponnese, with property damage reported notably at a coastal hotel. Greece is the European nation most exposed to earthquakes, accounting for half of all tremors recorded on the continent. Europe's most recently deadly earthquake struck April 6 in Italy, killing 295 people in and around L'Aquila city with a magnitude of 5.8 on the Richter scale.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - The summit of Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is glowing brightly as molten lava swirls 300 feet below its crater's floor, bubbling near the surface after years of spewing from the volcano's side. The expanding vent of Halemaumau crater helps confirm scientists' belief that the lava is close to the surface of the summit. Kilauea has been erupting for more than 25 years, with its lava creating a plume of steam as it spills into the Pacific Ocean. But this recent activity is coming from the top of the volcano, not its sea-level side. This is the strongest glow coming from the crater since October, but scientists don't know if lava will ever erupt in a fountain from within the crater. The changes in the crater have not created any increased risk to visitors. Volcanic smog — known as vog — regularly emits from the crater, spreading a haze of toxic sulfur dioxide over the island. Sometimes, it has been thick enough to cause illnesses, kill crops and force school closures. Measurements taken earlier this week showed that sulfur dioxide emissions remain similar to recent elevated levels.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - With the water level beginning to rise in the Sunderbans, nearly one lakh people have fled the delta by Friday. The region, which bore the brunt of Cyclone Aila, is now facing threat of fresh inundation from Bhora Kotal or Spring Tide. With a low pressure zone already forming in the Bay of Bengal, any fresh tropical storm could make the situation, already fragile, worse. The Spring Tide would result in more inundation in the areas where embankments were breached during Aila. Overall, 70 per cent breaches have been repaired, however. Water level will continue to rise till June 8. “The water level is likely to rise more than 0.5 metre from the normal sea level. In creeks or in the river of the Sunderbans, it may be more than 0.7 metre." Since the tide is being caused by Full Moon, the rise in water level would be more. The district administration had alerted the residents of the impending rise in the water level and asked the people not to stay in villages near river or sea side. “Thousands of people are thronging the Godeghat point with their belongings and leaving the area." For the past few days, locals were engaged in repairing 226 breaches in the embankments. The state government has already requisitioned 147 speed boats and one hovercraft for rescue operation in case the tide causes fresh flooding in the area.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CALIFORNIA - Friday’s UNUSUAL RAIN caught many Southern Californians off-guard during what is normally a gloomy, but otherwise dry month. “This is some pretty unusual weather,” said a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The county usually sees about one-tenth of an inch of rain the entire month of June, but Friday’s storm dumped about a quarter of an inch. It was the FIRST TIME IN AT LEAST 20 YEARS that it rained on June 5.
CALIFORNIA - Yuba-Sutter residents blacked out by a RARE, dramatic thunderstorm had their power restored Thursday, hours after a wave of lightning lit up the nighttime sky and left thousands of buildings in the dark. An UNUSUAL MIX of moist low-pressure air entering from over the Pacific Ocean, warm inland temperatures and cooler skies produced lightning and as much as a half-inch of overnight rain from the Central Valley to Southern Oregon. The combination -- UNUSUAL FOR LATE SPRING in the valley -- was expected to spawn a second wave of storms that could add to the estimated 2,800 lightning strikes Thursday between Shasta and Calaveras counties. "This lightning, it's TOTALLY UNUSUAL. This episode was so intense, we had people calling in to say the sky was lit up every second."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - Great British summer goes from sweltering to shivering in just a week. Five days earlier they were flocking to the beach, queueing for ice-creams and slathering on the sunscreen. Tuesday, they were shivering in summer's first dusting of snow. Yes, snow. After the hottest spell of the year so far, sleet and snow swept in across northern parts of Britain while the rest of the country also cooled down considerably. The Cairngorms in Scotland were the chilliest, with temperatures falling to zero while the Pennines and Cumbrian fells managed a mere 3c (37f). Even by British summer standards, that is a remarkable weather turnaround. On Monday, temperatures soared to 80.6f (27c) and beyond, with the highest reported at Port Solent, Hampshire, which sweltered at 27.2c. Amateur weather watchers in Brampton, Cumbria, were astonished at the unseasonal snow. 'This is very late in the season for snow even on Cross Fell. For it to fall and lie in the early afternoon in June is remarkable...Those early afternoon temperatures in Penrith are VERY UNUSUAL. To think it was only four days ago that it reached 26c.'

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - An unseasonable heat wave has been BREAKING RECORDS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. Twenty-one record temperatures were smashed around the province Thursday.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
U.S. - CORN & SOYBEANS - Cooler summer to impact acres, health and yields of US corn and soybeans. Lack of sun spot activity, volcano eruption in Alaska in March and the return of an El Niño all paint a cooler than normal summer for the major crop areas in the US. It is been colder than normal so far this Spring in most of the Plains and in addition it has been very wet in the Corn Belt east of the Mississippi. This has delayed corn and soybean seeding to the extent that US corn crop yields are projected to be down. The ocean surface temperatures in the South Pacific are rising quickly, which could mean we will not have a normal neutral period and could move into an El Niño later this summer. That would have an even more severe impact on rains in Australia and the major Palm areas of Indonesia and Malaysia resulting in drought. Once again world stocks of soybeans will be critically low at the end of the 2008/2009 crop year. Corn inventories are projected to drop in the 2009/2010 crop year and if we have further weather and related crop issue in North America this summer, prices could pop once again. At the same time, good weather and moisture with improved seeds and farm management could result in a bumper soybean crop and a decent corn crop yet. Keep your eyes to the skies.

INDIA - SHRIMP - Cyclone Aila causes heavy damages to Shrimp farms. The recent Cyclone Aila has caused widespread damaged to fishery resources of patuakhali district. The tidal surge that engulfed most part of the district washed out 1717 shrimp farms of the districts and submerged about 50,000 ponds of the district. 8000 fishermen lost their fishing nets, trawlers and fishing boats. The tidal waves of 8-9 feet flooded the district and the surge waters lasted for seven hours. Over 2,214 metric tons of Shrimps were washed out.

HEALTH THREATS -
The global count of novel flu cases jumped to 21,940, including 125 deaths, from 69 countries. The count was up 2,667 since the last report 2 days ago. Appearing on the list for the first time are Barbados, Luxembourg, and Saudi Arabia. Besides the United States, Mexico, and Canada, countries reporting more than 300 cases are Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Chile.

The number of confirmed and probable novel flu cases in the United States reached 13,217, 27 of them fatal. The death toll rose by 10 since the CDC's Jun 3 count. Wisconsin has the most cases (2,217), followed by Texas (1,670), Illinois (1,357), California (973), and New York (858).

Australia's tally of novel H1N1 cases reached 1,006, up by 130. The government expects the virus to spread nationwide. The total is the most of any country outside North America. The state of Victoria added 122 cases today for a total of 874. Australian officials said earlier this week that they were seeing sustained community transmission. But the cases are mild and travel restrictions are not warranted.

International novel flu isolates show little genetic change - Influenza experts at the CDC who have been analyzing genetic sequences of novel H1N1 isolates from a wide geographic area have seen little variation. Global health officials have voiced concern that the new strain could mutate as it spreads to other regions, including the southern hemisphere, where the flu season is just starting.

Sunday, June 7, 2009 -

Didn't find much to report.

When ideas fail, words come in very handy.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Largest quakes yesterday -
6/6/09 -
5.1 CENTRAL PERU
6.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6/5/09 -
5.1 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.3 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

Friday, June 5, 2009 -

Idealism is what precedes experience; cynicism is what follows.
David T. Wolf

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/4/09 -
6.0 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
5.6 VANUATU
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
The El Nino weather pattern, which can bring global weather chaos such as droughts and floods, could develop within weeks, the Climate Prediction Centre in the United States said. El Nino is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific and the forecaster said conditions were favourable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August 2009. The forecast is the latest warning of the increased chances of El Nino developing after months of rising ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. El Nino leaves drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia and puts crops at risk of failure. The most devastating El Nino was in 1997/98, when it caused drought in Australia and Indonesia and floods in Peru and Ecuador. El Nino can also bring wetter weather to parts of the United States and can affect the monsoon in India.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

WASHINGTON - Seattle hit RECORD TEMPERATURES Wednesday. Temperatures climbed to 89 degrees by 5 pm, two degrees higher than the previous June 3 record, set in 1978.

MINNESOTA - 45% of Minnesota is now considered "abnormally dry." "Many locations are 5 to 6 inches below normal for the calendar year." The current US Drought Monitor categorizes east central and southeastern Minnesota in a moderate to severe drought.

CANADA - A heat wave is baking British Columbia, triggering fire bans and fueling the Tyaughton Lake blaze firefighters are struggling to contain. Several B.C. cities saw TEMPERATURE RECORDS SHATTERED Tuesday, including the capital. Temperatures reached 30.4 degrees in Victoria, breaking the 31-year record of 27.3 degrees. Records were set in White Rock, Pitt Meadows and Squamish - where temperatures hit 33 degress - and more records could fall as the heat wave continues.

INDIA - Heat wave is back and on Wednesday it pounded large tracts of the Northern belt as the mercury climbed up appreciably across the region with the holy city Amritsar sizzling at 44.4 degree Celsius.Temperatures shot up by two to five degrees in Punjab and Haryana where mercury breached the 43-degree mark at several places confining people indoors. The maximum in Amritsar settled five degree celsius above normal as elsewhere in Punjab, Patiala baked at 43.5 degrees and Ludhiana at 43, both up by four notches.

HEALTH THREATS -
The US's number of novel H1N1 cases rose to 11,468, up 414 from yesterday. The number of deaths reported grew by 2 to 19. The number of hospitalizations climbed to 770, about 2.5% of the cases. Rates were highest in the 5 to 24 age-group and among children younger than 5.
Five states report new novel flu deaths - Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin are reporting new novel H1N1 deaths.
The New York City Department of Health yesterday detailed risk factors that were present among the 152 residents who were hospitalized for novel influenza. At least 85% had one or more underlying health condition. The most common ones were asthma (41%), being younger than 2 years old (18%), having a compromised immune system (13%), and heart disease (12%). Pregnancy, diabetes, and chronic organ system disorders were also reported among those who were hospitalized.

The Caribbean countries of Barbados and Trinidad reported their first novel flu cases.

Thursday, June 4, 2009 -

Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.
George Eliot

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/4/09 -
5.0 REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION
5.1 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

ALASKA - Earthquakes continue to rattle through Ester and Chena Ridge nearly two weeks after the first quake struck on May 23. More than 60 earthquakes have occurred in Alaska’s central region since 4 p.m. Saturday, the strongest being a 3.8 magnitude quake on Sunday at 9:35 p.m. just outside Ester. A majority of the recent quakes register at less than a 1.0 magnitude. While Fairbanks is no stranger to a sporadic shake here and there, seismologists with the Alaska Earthquake Information Center say the recent tremors are somewhat UNUSUAL. “It’s unusual because it hasn’t happened in a while - since 1967 to be exact, where there were three magnitude 5 and greater earthquakes in the Fairbanks area." The earthquakes are not a result of the Denali Fault line. The fault line is located about 100 miles south of Fairbanks near Denali Village. While most earthquakes are associated with faults, it’s difficult for scientists to locate any faults in the Ester area given the lay of the land. “To know exactly where faults are, geologists need to map those structures, and that is hard to do in Fairbanks because glacial deposits, gravel, ground cover and heavy vegetation make it hard for geologists to look for rocks to identify where faults may lay.” Questions arise as to whether the recent tremors are foreshocks for a larger earthquake but it’s hard for scientists to forecast future earthquakes based on current activity. “This is a known area for seismic activity, so people should prepare for any seismic activity if they live in the greater Fairbanks area.”

TEXAS - A 2.8 magnitude earthquake hit southern Cleburne at 3:06 Tuesday afternoon. The quake was centered about one mile west of the city. It's the fourth time in the last few weeks that a quake has struck North Texas. Several people called and emailed the local police department, reporting they had heard a loud boom and rumbling in the area. The fire chief said firefighters drove all over town trying to find the damage. At first, they were under the impression they were dealing with an explosion. "When there's lots of small earthquakes, that means you usually won't have a big one because you release a lot of the energy in the small quakes."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Increased storms off U.S. coastline have forecasters concerned - these popup storms could mean more severe weather for U.S. during hurricane season. Already THIS DECADE RANKS AS THE WORST EVER IN THE NATION'S HISTORY in both dollars and casualties from hurricanes. Though this year is expected to be an average season with between nine and 14 named storms, the year already has seen its first tropical depression, which hit last week. The storm formed dangerously close to America's mid-Atlantic shore. "People may be confused that all storms form off Africa and give you a long signal as they cross the way." But a NEW PATTERN defies the one common to most tropical systems. Instead of starting off Africa's coast; it starts off the U.S. coast in either the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. Some forecasters fear the pattern may be a sign of things to come, with sudden developments in our own backyard within two to three days of hitting the coastline. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 is a classic example of this sudden storm. It formed off Texas and INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN ANY TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. In just one day it grew from a disturbance to a full blown category one hurricane. It ended up causing $50 million in damage. "You're going to get the very excessive rain and flash flooding, which over the long haul in recent time, has been the No. 1 killer in people in tropical systems." And because they develop so fast, getting the word of warning out to those in its path is another concern. Warm water temperatures could be a key reason why these pop-up storms are occurring. The Gulf and Atlantic Ocean warm up faster than the waters off Africa. "The caveat is in the Gulf of Mexico in August and October you can have very strong storms form and become severe simply because warm water is there. The atmosphere is favorable, and these storms can spin up to category 4 or 5 status."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CALIFORNIA - FREAK storms pummel Southern California. Thunder rumbled through the Southland and freak storms pelted the region with hail, lightning and unseasonable rain, killing two women in San Bernardino County, bedeviling aviation and touching off more than a dozen brush fires on the parched mountain slopes ringing Los Angeles County. Temperatures were about 10 degrees below normal in the area, with downtown Los Angeles registering 67 degrees at 2 p.m. Rain is SO RARE at this time of year that RECORDS WERE BROKEN in Palmdale, Sandberg and Camarillo, where THERE HAS BEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION ON ANY JUNE 3 IN THE YEARS THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS BEEN KEEPING RECORDS. Small hailstones drummed at least four beachfront communities in San Diego County, as well as Murrieta in Riverside County, ANOTHER ODDITY in late spring, according to the weather service. Thunderstorms and light rain are forecast to continue through Friday or Saturday as a low-pressure system slowly makes its way inland from the coast. (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - It's June and no one's wearing shorts. The patios are empty, the riverfront is bare and there's not a single ice cream cone in sight. While the weather isn't as cold as in the rest of Ontario, Windsor is still around five degrees cooler than it should be this time of year. On Tuesday, the high was around 19 C, while it should have been about 25. "Models are showing the same situation in Windsor as we're seeing in Eastern Canada. What we're going to see over the next week is temperatures that are a little cooler than (normal). We think this month will come out more in the cool and perhaps the wet side. That's not necessarily great for gardeners and for growers.... We need it to warm up and it doesn't look like June's going to be like that." "We've had a couple nights (where) we had to get up for frost protection. The ground is pretty dried out, we're waiting for one of these big rains to come through." The weather should warm up in July and August.

HEALTH THREATS -
Three anonymous sources PREDICTED THAT THE WHO WILL RAISE ITS PANDEMIC ALERT TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL WITHIN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. Raising the alert level to phase 6 may trigger new pandemic planning actions around the globe, but WHO officials have said they worry that the action could cause panic and that they are watching for further evidence of sustained community transmission outside North America, where the virus first gained a foothold.

The global number of novel flu cases grew to 19,273 cases, including 117 deaths, in 66 countries. Countries appearing on the list for the first time include Bulgaria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Nicaragua. The United States, Mexico, and Canada continued to lead the list; other countries with more than 300 cases are Australia, Chile, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009 -

Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must be driven into practice with courageous patience.
Hyman Rickover

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/2/09 -
5.0 HONDURAS
5.1 VANUATU
5.5 VANUATU
6.5 VANUATU



VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Residents were evacuated after Mount Karangetang volcano began spewing lava and hot ash, threatening a major eruption on Tuesday. There were no reports of casualties in connection with the increased activity. Volcanologists upgraded the alert status to the highest level on Sunday for the volcano on the remote island of Siau, part of the Sulawesi chain, about 2,340 kilometres north-east of Jakarta. Residents were urged to stay outside a radius of 3 kilometres from the crater to avoid possible danger. Local authorities also ordered a ban on farming and other activity on the slope areas. Mount Karangetang is known as the most active volcano in the island chain. Its activity has been increasing for weeks. The last deadly eruption of Karangetang occurred in 1992.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Even as people are yet to come to terms with the devastation caused by Cyclone Aila, the next tidal wave is supposed to hit Sunderbans on Friday. The tidal wave hits the Sunderbans once every fortnight. Various areas of the Sunderbans will be inundated again on Friday, causing further damage. 20 per cent of the breaches in the embankments could not be repaired before Friday, due to the lack of manpower. The administration has identified 19 points in the various blocks which are vulnurable during the tidal wave on Friday. (photo)
When Cyclone Aila smashed into the Sunderbans at 110 km/hr, the villagers were caught completely unawares.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
MINNESOTA - Frost, freeze warnings issued for Northland - "Holy frozen petunias, Batman, this is cold - even for us." Gardeners were warned to protect plants as temperatures Wednesday morning were forecast to drop to the upper 20s in parts of northern Minnesota and to near freezing across much of the Northland. Frost advisories are possible through the weekend. “We are sort of stuck in this northwest flow, with colder than usual air from northern Canada funneling right into our area every few days." If it does frost in Duluth and along Lake Superior, it would be among the latest in recent history. Minnesota State Climatology Office considers Duluth and the North Shore safe from frost on June 5 — the point at which a frost almost never occurs. Duluth’s latest frost occurred June 20, 1992. The trend so far in June, and for the foreseeable future, continues a very cold and slow-starting spring across the Northland, evidenced by late-sprouting trees and plants. While many days were pleasant, including a record high 88 degrees on May 20, overnight temperatures dropped UNUSUALLY LOW. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below-normal temperatures through at least mid-June for much of the northern U.S.
International Falls recorded 0.6 inches of snow for the month, raising its total winter season snowfall to a RECORD-BREAKING 125.6 inches. The old record season snowfall was set during the winter of 1995-96, when 116 inches fell.
At the same time, the southern U.S. is basking in RECORD WARMTH.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA endured extreme weather in May, with storms in the south and RECORD TEMPERATURES in the north. Rain in some regions (the mid and lower Yangtze River, south China, eastern Sichuan, western and southern Yunnan, southeastern Tibet and southern Shaanxi) is expected to increase by between 20-40 percent compared to the same period in earlier years. But there was little rain predicted for the drought-stricken northeastern provinces and in the west. The drought in Heilongjiang province in northeast China IS NOW THE MOST SEVERE IN ITS HISTORY. Drought-affected areas reached 92.54 million mu (6 million ha), or 53 percent of the province's arable land, on May 27. Meanwhile, temperature in many parts of Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Zhejiang and Fujian reached new records in May. There has recently been numerous lightning strikes in many parts of the country, particularly the south. Since February, there had been 670,000 lightning strikes, which was 80,000 more than the corresponding period in 2008. Meanwhile, there were fewer sandstorms in the northern part of the country in May, with just 22 per cent of the usual number in previous years. In southern Xinjiang and the middle of Inner Mongolia, the sandstorms were the lightest since 2003.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009 -

Ignorance of certain subjects is a great part of wisdom.
Hugo De Groot

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
6/1/09 -
5.1 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - One of Indonesia's most active volcanos is threatening to erupt, officials said Monday, as they ordered residents in nearby villages to leave. The alert status of Mount Karangetang was raised to the highest level after it started spewing lava and hot ash hundreds of yards (meters) into the air. The volcano on Siau, part of the Sulawesi island chain, last showed signs of intense activity in July 2006, when 4,000 people were evacuated. It has spit out ash and lava several times since then, but no serious injuries have been reported. The last deadly eruption was in 1992, when six villagers were killed.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season began Monday with a tropical wave reported over the Caribbean Sea and one tropical depression already spent. Saturday a tropical wave had formed off the coast of Africa, where the majority of tropical storm systems originate. Hot dry air from the Sahara desert moves over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and upward, moisture-driven, convective winds slowly develop. The season that runs through Nov. 30 is forecast to be "near-normal" or average by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes. Of those, as many as three could be major, or above a Category 3 on the 5-point Saffir-Simpson scale. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes. Last year, there were 16 named storms, eight of which became hurricanes and five of them major. Five of the storms traveled north and tailed out in Canada's eastern provinces. There Is a "very real possibility an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean could occur during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season" in August through October. The El Nino event occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise, which has been happening for several months. "This is important, since the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is usually reduced during an El Nino year, thanks to the increased wind shear such events bring."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Brutal FREAK turbulence is the most plausible cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447. No major crash has been directly blamed on lightning for more than four decades. Large aircraft are regularly struck by lightning but very rarely suffer damage from the bolt, which passes along the exterior of the fuselage and is diffused into the open air, mainly from small tabs on the trailing edge of the wings. The violent turbulence in the heart of storms is a threat to even large aircraft, however. Airliners usually avoid them by flying over or around the biggest ones. Smaller aircraft are from time-to-time torn to pieces in storms or thrown on the ground by them when they are approaching to land or taking off. All that is known is that the aircraft was in a tropical storm system and that electrics failure was brutal and sudden. It killed all the multiple means by which modern airliners communicate with the ground and prevented the use of back-up power — otherwise the pilots or the automated system would have been able to send a distress message. Lightning could, for example, cause a fuel tank to explode, as happened on at least one occasion in the 1960s. All modern airliners are designed with multiple systems to protect their sensitive electronic systems from lightning discharges that would otherwise cause power surges that would fry their software and blow circuit breakers. It is more likely that the extreme turbulence of a tropical storm could have upset the aircraft, causing an uncontrollable descent and an in-flight break-up that would have cut the power. That scenario has been followed by numerous smaller aircraft over the decades.

ILLINOIS - Peoria saw RECORD-BREAKING wet spring. The combined months of March, April and May broke rainfall records for the spring season.

An UNUSUAL type of storm cloud could become the first new variety of cloud to be officially identified in more than half a century. Meteorologists believe they have discovered a new classification of cloud after the unique formation has been spotted in skies around the world. The new cloud type has been named "Asperatus" after the Latin word for rough. The new type of cloud forms a dark, lumpy blanket across the sky and has been sighted in locations all over the world, including above the hills of the Scottish Highlands and above Snowdonia, Wales, above the flat plains of Iowa and Australia and also over the arctic sea just off the coast of Greenland. "The underside of the clouds are quite rough and choppy. It looks very stormy, but some of the reports we have been getting suggest that they tend to break up without actually turning into a storm." The undulating and lumpy underside, however, is thought to be caused by warm and cold air meeting a the boundary between the lower and middle atmosphere creating a transition effect similar to those seen when oil and vinegar mix. "There would probably need to be quite a lot of heat around to produce the energy needed to generate such dramatic cloud formations. They are quite dark structures so there must be a lot of water vapour condensing in the cloud." Clouds are taking on a new importance in meteorological work after falling out of fashion as forecasters used satellite images and radar to help their predications rather than using cloud formations. "Clouds are very important in the Earth's climate as depending where they are in the atmosphere they will either reflect heat or absorb and trap heat. We are only just starting to understand that role." (photo)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CALIFORNIA - January and June may be swapping weather patterns in San Luis Obispo County this year. While residents hit the beaches during record-breaking heat the first month of this year, June is starting with a WEATHER PATTERN MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN WINTER. Clouds, rain and snow in the mountains are forecast later this week

HEALTH THREATS -
Australia's health department has confirmed 401 novel flu cases, including 306 in the southwestern state of Victoria. The number is doubling every 2 days, with evidence of community spread that MIGHT PROMPT THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION TO RAISE THE PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL TO 6.

US orders intranasal vaccine for novel flu - US officials have awarded MedImmune, Inc., based in Gaithersburg, Md., an initial $90 million contract to produce a live attenuated nasal-spray vaccine to protect priority groups identified in the nation's pandemic flu plan against the novel H1N1 virus. The US is the only country that has licensed MedImmune's intranasal vaccine technology.

Seventy-seven percent of US influenza virus isolates tested during the week of May 17 to 23 were the novel H1N1 type. Four states reported widespread activity: Arizona, California, New Jersey, and Virginia. The proportion of deaths from pneumonia and flu was below the epidemic threshold, and outpatient visits for flu-like symptoms were below the national baseline.

The number of confirmed and probable novel H1N1 cases in the US climbed to 10,053, with all states and the District of Columbia now reporting cases. The global number of confirmed novel H1N1 cases rose to 17,410, including 115 deaths, from 62 countries.

Monday, June 1, 2009 -

It's innocence when it charms us, ignorance when it doesn't.
Mignon McLaughlin

QUAKES -
[Worldwide quakes very low - this often means a large quake, or a flurry of moderate quakes, on the horizon. Stay tuned.]

Largest quakes yesterday -
5/31/09 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Redoubt oozes lava, pressure builds. Dome buildup may collapse creating new round of eruptions. Since Mount Redoubt's last explosion in April, it has quietly continued to ooze lava from its vent, creating a massive hardened dome that could blow at any moment and unleash another ash fall on Southcentral Alaska. Or maybe not. The volcano's dome, roughly the size of nine football fields, has formed a precarious plug over its steaming vent. That's kept ash from spewing into the atmosphere and has perhaps led many to believe the volcano's rumblings are over. But if the dome cracks or collapses, as scientists believe it likely will, ash could once again blast to tens of thousands of feet into the atmosphere and ground airplanes during Alaska's busy summer tourist season. A second worry is that a cracked dome, accompanied by another explosion, would allow hot gas and rock to blast down the mountainside, which would melt snow and ice and once again flood the Drift River valley, as it did in late March. Scientists estimate the amount of lava comprising the hardened dome is so massive it could fill 11 Louisiana Superdomes. It is roughly as thick as a 65-story building. The last time the volcano erupted in 1989 and 1990, a similar dome lasted 36 days before it collapsed and unclogged the vent. "It could happen in 10 minutes or a month or not at all." (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

NASA data currently indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are below normal. These cooler than normal ocean temperatures could "starve" developing hurricanes of their driving force, which are waters warmer than 80 degrees Fahrenheit, thus suggesting a damping of hurricanes. Despite Atlantic waters being cooler than normal, the first tropical depression of the Atlantic season formed on May 27 around 11 a.m. EDT in the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream about 310 miles south of Providence, Rhode Island. It then moved away from the mainland U.S. and into cooler waters which led to its dissipation. Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific, the La Niña conditions of the past few years have faded away. This is also good news for the coming hurricane season, as La Niña tends to drive the jet stream farther north, decreasing the hurricane damping wind shear over the tropics. The jet stream is a ribbon of fast moving air in the upper troposphere that guides low pressure areas (storms) and fronts. But, it is very early to forecast hurricane activity since much can change during the summer. Will El Niño develop in the Pacific or will La Niña make a surprise return? Will the Atlantic warm up over the summer? And there are some wild cards. Since 1995, the Atlantic has entered multi-decadal conditions that favor increased hurricane activity. This loads the dice for more hurricanes. In the Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation's (PDO) characteristic warm "horseshoe" and cool wedge pattern is still strong in the sea surface temperature and sea-level height images. The PDO is a long-term ocean temperature fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean that waxes and wanes approximately every 10 to 20 years. Most recent NASA sea-surface temperature and height data clearly illustrate the persistence of this basin-wide pattern. "While this PDO pattern tends to make the formation of a new El Niño event less likely, the warm waters in the western Pacific favor a very active western Pacific typhoon ("hurricane" in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic) season and inhibit the hurricane damping condition over the Atlantic and Caribbean." "It is the beginning of a long summer and oceanic and atmospheric conditions can change dramatically." Statistics and probabilities of today have huge wiggle room.

Meterologists worry that some storms are forming in a troublesome pattern - 'They're not where they should be'. Distrubing new phenomenon could change the way we understand storms. [video link]

Climate change over the next 20 to 70 years can be expected to increase hurricane flooding in Corpus Christi, Texas.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - experienced storm chasers are saying they've NEVER SEEN A DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN LIKE THIS BEFORE. That pattern is a high-pressure ridge, which has settled over most of the Midwest and held back moisture and wind shear like a dam holds back water. The jet stream, composed of high winds aloft that create the wind shear necessary for the formation of supercell thunderstorms, is currently over Canada. That's normal for August, but not May. Through May 27, there have been 213 tornado reports across the country this month, compared to 461 in May 2007. And that number is just a preliminary one - it will probably shrink after reports are confirmed and duplicate reports are discarded. From May 15 to May 25, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman did not issue a single severe weather watch in the United States. That 10-day stretch is A RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MAY, and ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE considering it occurred in the heart of severe storm season.
On Monday, May 25, storm trackers encountered a PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL STORM. The storm was a fairly isolated, self-contained supercell. Typically, when storms become more severe and prepare to drop a wall cloud (a precursor to tornado formation), they take a right turn. This storm was the EXACT OPPOSITE. It split in two, and while the storm that moved right (or east-southeast) stayed fairly normal, the northeasterly moving (or left-turning) storm became POSITIVELY BIZARRE. "It got more intense as it turned left, it had a wall cloud on the north side and it was anticyclonic." Why is that UNUSUAL? Wall clouds almost always form on the south or southwest side of a storm, and anticyclonic rotation means a storm is rotating clockwise, which is VERY UNCOMMON. Storms in the Northern Hemisphere usually rotate cyclonically, or counter-clockwise, due to the Coriolis effect. Eventually it turned right, weakened, became cyclonic, re-strengthened and dumped some huge hail on I-35. An investigator said he had NEVER SEEN AN ANTICYCLONIC STORM TURN LEFT AND STILL BE A SUPERCELL, and he also said it was EVEN MORE UNUSUAL because there was nothing about the atmosphere that would suggest it could support such a storm for any length of time.

An Air France airliner carrying 228 people from Brazil to Paris has vanished over the Atlantic after flying into strong tropical turbulence and probable lightning. The Airbus sent an automatic message at 0214 GMT, four hours after leaving Rio de Janeiro, reporting a short circuit. It may have been damaged by lightning. It was well over the ocean when it was lost, making Brazilian and French search planes' task more difficult. "It is a catastrophe the likes of which Air France has never seen. We are without a doubt faced with an air disaster." Flight AF 447 left Rio at 1900 local time (2200 GMT) on Sunday. It had 216 passengers and 12 crew on board, including three pilots. The passengers included one infant, seven children, 82 women and 126 men. The firmest clue to its fate comes from the data message sent via a satellite network at 0214 GMT reporting electrical and pressurisation problems. This suggests whatever happened, happened before the crew could put out a mayday radio call. It was likely a sudden and catastrophic emergency. Even a double engine failure at cruising altitude would normally give the crew around half an hour's gliding time. "Aeroplanes get hit by lightning on quite a routine basis without generally any problems occurring at all. Whether it's related to this electrical storm and the electrical failure on the aeroplane, or whether it's another reason, we have to find the aeroplane first."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CANADA - Snow pellets on May 31! A local weather watcher tracking weather in Orillia for almost 30 years has NEVER SEEN ANYTHNING LIKE WHAT HAPPENED Sunday afternoon. "It actually snowed." A light dusting of snow pellets fell periodically in Orillia on Sunday afternoon for about 90 minutes. It was an ODD weather occurrence for the end of May. "For this time of year it's PRETTY UNUSUAL. It was kind of a freak thing Environment Canada said." The snow and ice pellets landed from Orillia to Sudbury. The snow was so heavy north of North Bay, residents in those areas noticed snow on the ground in the morning. The odd weather was caused by a cold front combined with 70 km/h winds. Although the weather on the ground was plus five-degrees Celsius at 5,000 feet the air was minus two-degrees Celsius, causing precipitation to fall solid through the warmer air.

NEW ZEALAND - A cold snap has struck New Zealand, with blizzard-type conditions being reported in parts of the South Island. The MetService said snowfall was down to near sea level from Southland to Kaikoura Coast and at UNUSUALLY LOW LEVELS in the North Island. temperatures were "bitterly cold" in the South Island, with a high of just 5 degrees in Christchurch and only 4 degrees in Kaikoura. Dunedin hit 7 degrees. Reports from Oxford, just out of Christchurch, suggested blizzard conditions with moderate snow falls and high winds. "It's VERY UNUSUAL to get such a cold outbreak in May."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

IRAQ - A plague of snakes has caused panic in Iraq's southern province of Nasiriyah, biting cattle and worrying residents as poisonous reptiles flee their dens in the country's water-deprived marshes. "We have been surprised in recent days by the UNPRECEDENTED NUMBER of snakes that have fled their habitat because of the dryness and heat. We saw some on roads, near houses and cowsheds. They have attacked cows and buffalo, and farmers have come to us looking for vaccines but we don't have any.'' Iraq's water reserves dipped to 11 billion cubic metres in May, compared with 40 billion cubic metres three years earlier, although rainfall this past winter was normal. Experts say Iraq faces agricultural disaster this summer if neighbouring Turkey continues to retain waters from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which have nourished Iraqi agriculture for millennia. Iraq says the problem is the many dams Turkey has built over the past 30 years to irrigate its own southeast.

Climate change is turning the oceans more acid in a trend that could endanger everything from clams to coral and be irreversible for thousands of years. Rising amounts of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas emitted mainly by human use of fossil fuels, are being absorbed by the oceans and making it harder for creatures to build protective body parts. On some projections, by 2060, levels of acidification in 80 per cent of Arctic seas would be corrosive to clams that are vital to the food web. "Coral reefs may be dissolving globally" if atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide rise to 550 parts per million (ppm) from a current 387 ppm. There may be an "underwater catastrophe. The effects will be seen worldwide, threatening food security, reducing coastal protection and damaging the local economies that may be least able to tolerate it." If current rates of carbon emissions continue until 2050, computer models indicate "the oceans will be more acidic than they have been for tens of millions of years".

Extreme weather in Brazil stokes climate worries - Sand dunes had been advancing for decades, and two years ago, they finally swallowed the houses of 13 families in Ilha Grande, an island in the Parnaiba river delta in northeastern Brazil. "It is beautiful now, but beauty brings misery. The cause of this is natural, but it is man-made as well." Experts blame deforestation and population increases for the huge dunes that are advancing by about 25 metres a year, threatening to wipe the town of 8,500 people off the map. But they and residents also blame stronger winds and drier weather in recent years. "The wind has been getting stronger. It is the motor of this process." A bout of extreme weather has reignited a debate about how climate change is affecting Latin America's largest country, home to most of the world's biggest rain forest and one of the world's bread baskets. Unusually heavy rains in the north and northeast have made hundreds of thousands of people homeless and killed about 45. Meanwhile, southern Brazil has been hit by a series of droughts, devastating farmers and cutting by a third the flow of water over the famed Iguacu waterfalls. "Brazil is feeling climate changes that are happening in the world, when there is a severe drought in a place that didn't have them, when it rains in places where it didn't used to." "We are seeing the warming and we are seeing conditions in many parts of the country that appear to be associated." Southern states have suffered droughts in seven of the past 11 years and the first hurricane recorded in Brazil hit the southern coast in 2004. The Amazon area had its worst drought in decades in 2005. Warming also plays a key role in models of a so-called "tipping point" in which drier weather and deforestation combine to turn much of the Amazon forest into a savanna and possibly cut the flow of rain to southern farming states. About half of the forest is "teetering on the edge" of not having enough water to survive the more intense dry seasons. The drying process, which raises the amount of destruction by fires, is on course to release about 20 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere over the next two decades, about twice the current annual total of global emissions.

HEALTH THREATS -
New flu virus - With summer temperatures settling in across the United States, health authorities are conceding that the novel H1N1 flu virus may continue circulating through the summer, rather than quieting down as seasonal flu strains do.

Vaccine - CSL Biotherapies, part of Australia-based CSL Limited, said it has signed a contract to sell at least $180 million worth of novel H1N1 influenza vaccine in bulk form to the US government. The company said it "anticipates initial delivery of the antigen by September. The firm has an option to finish processing the bulk vaccine at its plants in Illinois and Germany. The US also has ordered H1N1 vaccine from Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline recently.

Fifty-three countries have reported a total of 15,510 cases of novel H1N1 influenza with 99 deaths. Countries added to the list since the last update on May 27 are the Czech Republic, the Dominican Republic, Romania, Slovakia, and Uruguay. The United States (8,975 cases), Mexico, and Canada continue to lead the list. Other countries with more than 100 cases are Japan (364), Britain (203), Chile (165), Australia (147), Spain (143), and Panama (107).

The source of exposure is unknown in about 45% of US H1N1 flu cases so far. 25% of patients contracted the virus from a family member, 12% had traveled to Mexico, 12% had contact with a known or suspected case, and 5% were healthcare workers who were exposed on the job.

Sunday, May 31, 2009 -

Everyone is a genius at least once a year.
The real geniuses simply have their bright ideas closer together.
Georg Christoph Lichtenberg

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/30/09 -
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5/29/09 -
5.6 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.2 VANUATU
5.0 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO

BELIZE - aftershocks continue after Thursday morning’s powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake. The epicenter of the major quake was about 140 miles east of the Stann Creek Coast and caused major structural damage in the villages of Monkey River, Independence and Placencia. That structural damage was quite remarkable in Monkey River where many wooden houses on stilts simply sunk into the ground – some sunk as much as eight to ten feet. "Places like Monkey River, and Belize City as well, because it is on the coast and it lies on top of unconsolidated sediments or coastal sediments, those places are very vulnerable to liquefaction.” Water gushed out of the ground all over the village; it is the water from within the soil itself which is forced to the surface. A REMARKABLE AND PREVIOUSLY UNSEEN PHENOMENON here, but the earthquake’s epicenter was about 150 miles from the coast of Monkey River so that is to be expected. (photo)

VOLCANOES -
A huge volcanic eruption in China some 260 million years ago led to the sudden extermination of marine life clear around the world. A layer of fossilised rock shows mass extinction of different life forms - clearly linking the volcanic blasts to a major environmental catastrophe. The eruption in southwest China unleashed about a half million cubic kilometres of lava, covering an area five times the size of Wales. The mass extinction of ocean life came about because of the collision of fast flowing lava with shallow sea water, which caused a violent explosion at the start of the eruptions and threw huge quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. "When fast flowing, low viscosity magma meets shallow sea ... there's spectacular explosion producing gigantic clouds of steam."
The blast was on a scale that has never been seen by humans and happened even before dinosaurs came along when Earth teemed with creatures which are now extinct. The injection of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere - caused by the lava mixing with water - would have lead to massive cloud formation spreading around the world. This cooled the planet and ultimately resulted in a torrent of acid rain. Geologists generally agree a number of important events in Earth's history happened around this time including the break-up of Pangaea - the original super continent- and a likely change in planetary climate. There was also a mass extinction of life on Earth when 96 percent of all ocean species and about 70 percent of all land species became extinct.

A massive underwater mountain discovered off the Indonesian island of Sumatra could be a volcano with potentially catastrophic power, a scientist said Friday. The mountain was discovered earlier this month about 330 kilometres (205 miles) west of Bengkulu city during research to map the seabed's seismic faultlines. The cone-shaped mountain is 4,600 metres (15,100 feet) high, 50 kilometres in diameter at its base and its summit is 1,300 metres below the surface. "It looks like a volcano because of its conical shape but it might not be. We have to conduct further investigations." He denied reports that researchers had confirmed the discovery of a new volcano, insisting that at this stage it could only be described as a "seamount" of the sort commonly found around the world. "Whether it's active or dangerous, who knows?"

COLUMBIA - There were two minor earthquakes around volcano Nevado del Huila on Thursday morning. The earth quaked at 08:26 and 08:37 with local magnitudes of 4.8 and 4 respectively. People living in the surroundings of the volcano said they felt the quakes. There were also landslides near the epicenter. Since Thursday morning "25 seismic events" were reported. The possibility of raising the alert level from yellow to orange was discussed.
52 mud volcanoes in the southwest corner of Cartagena that have been active in the recent weeks are causing panic among the residents of the area. 400 families want to be relocated. Representatives of the community have met several times with the authorities in the last ten days and asked to be relocated to another, safe, site. A resident of the volcano area is afraid every time she hears the glasses tinkle in her house when the earth quakes. For another the most uncomfortable thing is that his house cracks more and more every day. "Recently, a volcano, like we have here, erupted in the municipality of Necocli, Antioquia. There were no deaths, but only because there were no houses in the area". The mud volcanoes are only 12 to 20 meters high and have a diameter of up to 50 meters.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

More than one million people in Bangladesh are facing a "humanitarian crisis" after the cyclone slammed into the south of the country and neighbouring India earlier in the week. At least 237 people were killed after Cyclone Aila on Monday hit the low-lying coast north of the Bay of Bengal. Lack of clean drinking water is emerging as the biggest problem. "Although it was not a high-category cyclone, it's created a grave humanitarian crisis because of water-logging and inundation. All sources of drinking water have been destroyed. People are having to live without proper food and water." People in the worst-hit districts were being forced to migrate elsewhere because of salt-water flooding. "It's an emerging humanitarian crisis. And it's getting worse every day. Water hasn't receded from major parts of the districts even five days after the cyclone." Most of the embankments and levees that shielded people from tidal water had been washed away, leading to daily flooding of the districts. Some 167 people died in Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed, while 70 people were killed in India as a result of the cyclone. Some 20 of those killed in India's West Bengal state died a day after the storm in mudslides caused by rainfall. (photos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
HAWAII normally experiences 60 to 75% relative humidity. Since last Sunday, humidity has shot up as high as 90% in the mornings and remained in the 70 to 80% range in the afternoons. The main culprit for the sauna-like conditions is a low pressure system to the north of the state, which cutoff the normal trade wind flow and allowed vog and moisture to build in from the south. “To have that kind of persistent low pressure system up north of the island - it's a bit UNUSUAL. High pressure will hopefully build back in next week and we'll get back our normal trades.”

NORTH CAROLINA - A month of wet weather combined with the steep terrain of Western North Carolina are combining to produce some UNUSUAL problems across the area. Two landslides have occurred on U.S. 64 in Henderson County this month. Trees have toppled over in saturated ground. Brevard Road buckled and collapsed after a culvert washed out. And officials aren’t certain, but they believe a train derailment in Mitchell County may have been caused by heavy rains. The mountains of North Carolina are particularly susceptible to landslides and other problems during prolonged periods of rain. Heavy rain may have slickened railroad tracks enough to cause Wednesday’s train derailment. The area received more than 3 inches of rain in the days leading up to the crash. A number of residents across the mountains have reported downed trees, with no significant wind involved. Asheville’s monthly rainfall total is a little over 8 inches, approaching the record 8.83 inches that fell in May 1973.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

UNITED KINGDOM - Met Office experts have predicted long, hot dry spells this June, July and August, prompting the Department of Health to issue a Heatwave Plan to make sure residents are prepared in the event of a heatwave.

NEVADA - May will be in the weather record books in the Las Vegas Valley as THE WARMEST AND LEAST WINDY MAY ON RECORD.

HEALTH THREATS -
Fears for new malaria drug resistance - Scientists are puzzling over why malaria parasites seem to be developing a resistance to drugs - and fearing the consequences. Scientists are particularly concerned because the last two generations of anti-malarial drugs were undermined by resistance. This resistance must be contained urgently, because its spread would be a global health disaster. Resistance to previous malaria drugs caused major loss of life in Africa. "If the same thing happens again, the spread of a resistant parasite from Asia to Africa, then that will have devastating consequences for malaria control." "There are no new drugs coming through the system in the next few years."

Friday, May 29, 2009 -

It is impossible to make people understand their ignorance; for it requires knowledge to perceive it
and therefore he that can perceive it hath it not.
Jeremy Taylor

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/28/09 -
5.0 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
7.1 OFFSHORE HONDURAS
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO

HONDURAS & BELIZE - The magnitude-7.1 quake struck at 2.24am local time on Thursday (9.24am BST) off the Caribbean coast. The offshore quake destroyed some 60 houses and damaged scores of other buildings across the north of Honduras, killing at least six people and injuring 40. "You could really feel it and you could see it - the water came out of the hotel's pool." Fourteen schools were damaged, as well as two Roman Catholic churches and three bridges. Democracy Bridge, which spans the country's largest river, the Ulua, collapsed in the town of El Progreso.
In Belize, about five homes collapsed and at least 25 others suffered severe damage. In Monkey River, parts of the ground opened up and left gaping holes up to 4ft deep.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Was the 7.1 earthquake in Honduras connected to a 50 foot water retreat in Puerto Rico on Wednesday? The water level in Puerto Rico dramatically receded as much as 50 feet, which some feared was a precursor to a tsunami. Many areas around the Caribbean had also had dramatic water level drops. The tides are affected by the moon, which can be most affective in it's new and full phase. This week however, turns out to be the moon's aphelion, or closest approach to earth for the year. That is the explanation for the extremely low tides, but that water does have to go somewhere. After Thursday morning's major earthquake, some might speculate that perhaps the water drained into a chasm as a precursor. As of now, there is no evidence of that. (map)
The original story from Wednesday - A tsunami? The apocalypse? No, it's just the moon, emergency officials in Puerto Rico are telling nervous islanders who have feared that recent extreme tides portend a tsunami or biblical catastrophe. Waters receded up to 50 feet (15 meters) this week during low tide on Puerto Rico's southern coast, sparking a flurry of calls to seismology and geological agencies from people worried about natural disasters or supernatural events. Tsunamis are sometimes preceded by a dramatic drop in sea level. "There are people who have said it's a biblical sign. There are others who don't dare go into the ocean because they believe it's a supernatural thing." Severe tide changes occur a couple of times a year worldwide, and are happening now because the moon is at its closest point to earth. The closer the moon is, the stronger its gravitational pull on water. People in the southern coastal town of Ponce have been seen walking over areas normally covered by water, studying exposed rocks, coral and sea shells. Officials are reminding residents that there have been no earthquakes to generate a tsunami. The extreme-tide phenomenon has been noted across the Caribbean and in Central America. Some beaches along the Pacific coast of El Salvador have seen tides that are 10 feet (3 meters) lower than usual. "We have received calls because people are a bit scared." Tides across the globe are affected, but the change is more noticeable on shallow beaches.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 01 was 276 nmi SSE of Boston, Massachusetts. [Dissipation is expected by 48 hours as the system is overtaken by another low pressure system currently near New England.]

Tens of thousands of people in Bangladesh and the Indian state of West Bengal are still struggling with the aftermath of Cyclone Aila.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Four people have been killed and an unknown number are missing after heavy rainfall caused a dam to breach in Piaui state, in north-east Brazil. Crops and livestock have also been lost. The flooding around two towns which reached up to the level of three-storey buildings was described as a "tsunami". Almost 50bn litres of water escaped in less than an hour, devastating the valley below. Heavy rains in recent days swelled the reservoir behind the dam, increasing pressure that opened a 50m tear and eventually led to the rupture. People rushed to higher ground scrambling to rooftops as the floodwaters suddenly swelled a river. "I heard a very loud thundering noise, and when the dam broke a huge column of water shot up 50m into the air, and when it came down it swept away everything in its way." Heavy rains in the area had caused water behind the dam to overflow two weeks ago, but it seems a build-up of pressure eventually forced a section to give way. Flooding in the north and north east of Brazil, which began in April, is now said to have led to 56 deaths and displaced 426,000 people. (photo / map)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Summer forecast: UNUSUAL HEAT expected for much of USA, according to federal forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center. The only cooler-than-average part of the USA this summer should be in the northern Plains, particularly in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Forecasters say that rainfall should be close to average across most of the nation over the next three months, with only the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West enduring UNUSUALLY DRY weather. The only wetter-than-average areas this summer are predicted to be across central and southern Florida and near the Four Corners region of the Southwest. "ENSO-neutral" conditions are currently indicated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are expected to continue through the summer and even into early 2010. This means that ocean water temperatures there are neither above-average (El Nino) nor below-average (La Nina). ENSO is a climate pattern that stands for El Nino — Southern Oscillation, and is one of the world's most powerful influences on weather. (map)

MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN - May is on schedule to be the third driest on record for the Twin Cities. So far this month only .46" of rain has fallen in the rain gauge at Twin Cities Airport. That's only about 14% of the monthly total of 3.24." There are some remarkable facts related to the growing drought. The UM St. Paul Campus recorded the third highest pan evaporation rate on record last Wednesday. The 94 degree temperature and dry gusty wind sucked an incredible .63" from the soil in one day. That's nearly three times the average daily evaporation for May. Records have been kept there since 1972. Lake levels in northern Wisconsin have dropped by as much as 8 feet. Some are now at the LOWEST POINT IN 70 YEARS. The dryness has helped farmers with a strong start planting corn and soybeans, but rapidly diminishing topsoil moisture will begin to adversely affect crops in the near future. The weather maps favor continued dryness in the Upper Midwest for the next 7 to 14 days. The area in Minnesota in the D0 (abnormally dry) category more than doubled from last week, from 14.7% to 31.5%. Drought conditions remain most severe in the Twin Cities. 40% of Wisconsin is now in moderate drought.

Climate change kills about 315,000 people a year through hunger, sickness and weather disasters, and the annual death toll is expected to rise to half a million by 2030.

HEALTH THREATS -
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is doing a superb job of explaining the current flu situation and how uncertain it is. The CDC's biggest failure is in not doing enough to help people visualize what a bad pandemic might be like so they can understand and start preparing for the worst. For the ordinary citizen, the US government has so far recommended only hygiene. It has told people to stay at home if they are sick and to wash their hands. It hasn't told people to STOCK UP ON FOOD, WATER, PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES AND OTHER KEY SUPPLIES. Two years ago in response to 'bird flu' worries, Mike Leavitt, the then US secretary of health and human services, was criss-crossing the country with that advice (http://www.pandemicflu.gov). We have a surreal situation in which the federal government has released one-quarter of the Strategic National Stockpile of antiviral drugs, so there will be enough oseltamivir (Tamiflu) to deploy to millions of sick Americans. But it hasn't yet asked those Americans to stock up on tinned fruit and peanut butter. The WHO's own guidance for phase 5 emphasizes that a pandemic is "imminent" and that the time to finalize preparations is short. That ought to mean more action than reducing hugging. Fundamentally, officials need to ask themselves whether they see the public as potential victims to be protected and reassured like young children, or as pandemic fighters - grown-ups - who can play an active part in the crisis that might be ahead. "This could get very bad, and IT IS TIME TO PREPARE in case it does."

West Virginia and Alaska are the only US states with no confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, as Wyoming has reported its first case.

Australian health officials said they were ordering enough doses of H1N1 vaccine to cover 10 million people, as cases rose to 103, up from 61.

Chile reported 46 new cases of novel H1N1 flu, raising its total to 165, and officials said the virus is firmly established in the country. The new virus, which was first confirmed in Chile 10 days ago, now accounts for 90% of flu cases in the country and may be replacing seasonal flu.

Slovakia and Romania have reported their first cases of the novel H1N1 flu.

Doctors have warned about the risks from "energy" chewing gum, citing the case of a 13-year-old boy who became moody and listless from caffeine intoxication.

Thursday, May 28, 2009 -

Better be ignorant of a matter than half know it.
Publilius Syrus

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/27/09 -
5.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 TONGA REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

INDIA - The death count in floods triggered by Cyclone Aila reached 100 in West Bengal Wednesday as the Sunderbans faced a severe drinking water crisis and lack of civic amenities led to protests in Kolkata. Two days after the cyclone pummeled coastal areas of the state, uprooting trees, snapping power cables and leaving a trail of destruction in its wake, vast areas remained submerged affecting 4.6 million people as victims complained of lack of relief. Around 152,000 houses have collapsed, and 89,000 more partially damaged, while 500 km of embankment got breached as flood fury raged in 1.171 mouzas affecting nearly 800,000 people in the district. Putrid smell of animal carcasses filled the air, and saline water from the sea got mixed with river water to inundate villages, leading to a serious drinking water crisis. Though the weather has improved, the situation continued to be grim. 100,000 people have been left stranded between the Ichamati and Kalindi rivers in North 24 Parganas district. "They are in this situation from Monday. They have not got any relief. They are totally disconnected."

Did the National Hurricane Center miss a tropical storm last week? - There was definitely something tropical down by Florida. Rainfall totaled over 2 feet near Daytona with winds near Jacksonville topping around 50 mph. The flooding pictures in Daytona Speedway were suggestive enough. But when you analyze the circulation, it wasn't well organized. However, it must have had a tropical-like warm core to generate that kind of rain and hold together as it did when it made landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even the pressure level was lower than last year's first tropical storm, coincidentally in May. If this was named a tropical storm [Ana], then it would have been the earliest to make landfall in the US since 1916. (photos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
An UNUSUAL silence drapes U.S. Tornado Alley - An ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED tranquility has descended upon Tornado Alley over the previous week. For only the second time since 1955, not a single incident of severe weather - tornadoes, hail or strong winds - was reported on May 21. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t issued a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch since May 16. If a watch wasn’t issued Saturday, it will be the first time since at least 1970 that a watch hasn’t been issued for the week of May 16-23. Considering that week falls in the heart of tornado season, such a feat would be almost unbelieveable. Weather patterns over the last several days were more characteristic of late summer. The jet stream has moved north, taking severe weather threats into the northern Plains.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
NORTH DAKOTA - HAY & BEEF - North Dakota ranchers are trying to rebound from a string of disasters: Drought last year shriveled their pastures and hayland followed by heavy winter snow, then spring flooding that turned roads and fields to mud. Hay supplies already low from last year's dry weather were depleted by cows that needed more energy than usual to survive ONE OF THE ROUGHEST WINTERS IN MEMORY. The Agriculture Department estimates hay stocks on North Dakota ranches this month total only about 700,000 tons - down 44 percent from last year. The hay was gone even before RECORD FLOODING hit this spring. It is not a crisis situation because many ranchers are starting to turn their cattle out to pasture. But pastures in some parts of the state are getting a slow start because of the cool spring. Some ranchers had to go to South Dakota to find enough hay. "It's sure been a struggle." South Dakota ranchers fared better over the winter. The Agriculture Department this month estimated hay supplies in that state at 1.9 million tons, down only 2 percent from the previous year. State and federal officials estimate that more than 90,000 cattle in North Dakota have been lost to the harsh winter and spring flooding, including as many as 72,000 calves. Many drowned. Others got sick from the wet, muddy conditions.

OKLAHOMA & TEXAS - WHEAT - Farmers dealing with drought and freeze damage to wheat. Drought and freeze have damaged the wheat crops in both states to the point many cutters are making the decision to cut their losses. Officials estimate Oklahoma’s crops will be about HALFOF ITS NORMAL YIELD. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Oklahoma’s wheat crop is estimated to total 80.5 million bushels, less than half the 166.5 million bushels harvested last year. In a number of counties in the southwest, the majority of the crop has been destroyed. “It’s been an UNUSUAL situation. We will have fields appearing to have a good yield that won’t yield well because of freeze damage.” Quite a few farmers are turning their wheat into hay or destroying it. There also is a problem with invasive cool-season grasses due to the thinness of the wheat.

AUSTRALIA - crop production increased in 2007-08 in comparison to the previous year, but generally remains at among the LOWEST LEVELS IN FIVE YEARS. The numbers of livestock fell while the horticulture sector reported mixed results. Lack of water was labelled as the major contributor, with a NEAR COMPLETE SUSPENSION of rice production. Drought conditions and industry adjustments have lead to a decline in livestock, with sheep and lambs at yet ANOTHER HISTORIC LOW. Most fruit producers reported decreased production as a result of less than ideal conditions such as drought, lack of irrigation water and unseasonal weather including rain at harvest. Among the fruit crops with reported falls were mangoes (down 16%), peaches (16%), oranges (13%) and bananas (3%).

HEALTH THREATS -
The global count of confirmed novel H1N1 cases grew to 13,398, including 95 fatalities, from 48 countries. Bahrain and Singapore are the two countries added to the list.

Fraudulent flu-related products - Since May 1, when the Food and Drug Administration vowed to aggressively pursue businesses that promote unapproved or unauthorized products related to the novel H1N1 flu, the agency has added 72 items to its list of fraudulent H1N-related products. The products range from air filtration systems to protective equipment to nutrition supplements. The companies have received warning letters from the FDA, which urged consumers to be cautious about novel flu marketing pitches.

The WHO yesterday warned that the global stockpile of yellow fever vaccine will be depleted in 2010 and that there is no funding stream to replenish it. Only 5 of Africa's 12 most vulnerable countries have been targeted by the vaccine efforts. Without renewed resources for the vaccine, countries that haven't been reached by immunization campaigns would be unfairly burdened by the disease. Campaigns in Togo, Mali, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Cameroon have put a stop to outbreaks of the mosquito-borne virus that leads to 206,000 illnesses and 52,000 deaths each year. The global economic downturn has hampered funding efforts.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009 -

Man's mind, once stretched by a new idea, never regains its original dimensions.
Oliver Wendell Holmes

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/26/09 -
5.0 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

MACEDONIA - A series of about 70 strong tremors have shaken the south-east of Macedonia, with some even being felt in southern Serbia. Dozens of earthquakes shook the southeast on Sunday (May 24th). The strongest measured 5.4 on the Richter scale at around 6 pm local.
New Bulgaria tremor takes quake tally close to 300 - A total of 300 earthquakes with an epicenter near the Bulgarian-Macedonian-Greek borders have been registered since Sunday afternoon. The shakes had a magnitude of between 2 and 5.4 on the Richter scale. The epicenter of the quakes was close to the Doiran Lake on the Macedonian-Greek border.

WASHINGTON - Over the past decade, scientists have discovered a dozen faults in western Washington. "We previously thought they were small, unconnected faults. Now we are sketching out connections." An earthquake fault previously believed to be limited to an area south of Washington state's Whidbey Island actually stretches 250 to 300 miles, from Victoria, B.C., to Yakima, Wash., crossing the Cascade Mountains and capable of producing a major earthquake, new research shows. Many of the other faults in western Washington could be connected to the South Whidbey Island Fault in a network similar to the San Andreas Fault system in California. "It appears there is a very large (fault) system in the Cascade arc." Scientists are trying to determine whether the South Whidbey Island Fault extends as far east as the Hanford nuclear reservation and if it could also be connected to the highly unstable Cascadia subduction zone off the coast. "This is big stuff... A lot of people are looking over our shoulder." The fault could be capable of producing a maximum earthquake registering 7.5 on the Richter scale, which would be the largest earthquake in the state's recorded history. In the spring of 1949, a 7.0 quake rocked the Olympia area, damaging nearly all the large buildings in the area and causing eight deaths. During a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in the Strait of Georgia off British Columbia in June 1946, the seabed sunk nearly 85 feet in some places. Scientists believe a 9.0 quake rocked the Cascadia subduction zone, where two tectonic plates collide just off the west coast, on Jan. 26, 1700, producing a giant tsunami that hit Japan. A similar quake, which could produce a tsunami of 60 to 90 feet that would hit the northwest coast in 15 minutes or less, is considered likely, though scientists aren't sure when. One of the most surprising things about the discovery is finding that a major fault crossed the Cascade Mountains in something now dubbed "trans-Cascade tectonics." Most faults run parallel to the Cascades. The South Whidbey fault could connect to offshore faults. In addition, the Seattle Fault, which is found mostly under Seattle, is now thought to hook around the south end of the Olympic Mountains and extend out to the coast.

Four earthquakes in three days across East Tennessee - Three earthquakes struck the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone between Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

VOLCANOES -
SAUDI ARABIA - A volcanic eruption in Saudi Arabia is “imminent” and COULD BE THE BIGGEST TO OCCUR IN MORE THAN 1000 YEARS, a leading seismologist warned last Thursday, as thousands evacuated quake-hit villages in part of the western Al-Madinah Province. At the epicentre of the tremors, a village called Harrah al-Shaqah, dangerous gases and UNUSUALLY HOT hot air and water in wells have started coming up from the ground. The last volcanic eruption in the region happened around the turn of the last millennium in the Rahat area of western Saudi Arabia. Records suggest the last eruption forced clouds of volcanic dust up to 15 km into the air. The tremors lasted for over a month.
An earthquake or volcano eruption in Saudi Arabia, a leading energy supplier, has the potential to send fuel prices surging, worsening the global economy, which is already reeling under a severe recession. The epicenter of the tremors, Harrat Al-Shaqah (also known as Harrat Al-Lunayyir), is an extinct volcano, which recently showed signs of coming alive. Several rifts, some of them measuring up to 900 meters in length, have appeared. Local residents, who became worried as the area has been experiencing frequent tremors since mid-April, started panicking last Sunday when the tremors became more intense. Subsequently, the Civil Defense ordered the evacuation of residents of settlements within a 40 km radius of the epicenter and have set up camps to house them.

INDONESIA - In West Sumatra, Mt. Kerinci's volcanic activities have recently decreased although there are still tremors and a spew of black ashes. Small eruptions still happen every 15 minutes at the 3,800-meter volcano site. "However, the activities are already reduced compared to early April when the volcano became active again." The volcano remains at the second alert level it was designated on Sept. 9, 2007.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - One of Byron Bay's most prestigious rows of real estate is eroding away in king tides and massive swells that continued hammering the coast last night. Belongil Beach has copped a hammering since the start of the wild weather last Thursday, with erosion exposing car wrecks, rocks and hundreds of sandbags. The remains of car wrecks were dumped on the beach in the 1970s in an attempt to stabilise the dunes. Yesterday two rusted bodies poked through what little sand was left on the beach. Four residents were evacuated from their beachfront homes at Belongil on Saturday night and were on standby again last night as another high tide was predicted. "No one I've spoken to has ever seen it this bad."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

The death toll from Cyclone Aila that battered eastern India and Bangladesh in recent days has risen to at least 159.

TROPICAL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARGENTINA - A RARE cyclonic storm inundated Argentina and Paraguay. A low-pressure weather system over the heart of South America developed into an UNUSUAL cyclonic storm in mid-May. The storm “remained quasi-stationary for 48 hours and was incredibly symmetric, resembling a tropical cyclone in the middle of the continent.” On May 22, with clear skies all around, the ball of clouds hung over the border between Argentina and Paraguay. Near the top center of the storm, the clouds had a boiling appearance that is often associated with towering thunderstorms. Near the bottom of the storm, a few wispy streamers of clouds suggest the clockwise inward spiral of the storm. “Any kind of cyclonic formation is VERY RARE in the Chaco region of northern Argentina and Paraguay. This system...unleashed heavy rain (over 200 mm) in Paraguay and displaced 500 people."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NICARAGUA - Heavy rains – which in just three hours dumped 174 millimeters (6.85 inches) of water in the capital, when the average monthly rainfall is 159 mm (6.26 in.) – caused flooding in some capital neighborhoods, affecting 442 families, knocking out the sewage system, damaging more than 200 meters (yards) of streets, causing 180 meters of walls to collapse and destroying one home. The bad weather is the result of the first tropical wave to hit Nicaragua this rainy season, although experts have characterized this particular weather phenomenon as a “weak” one. The rains fell unevenly around the country, and – in fact – no precipitation was registered across most of Nicaragua, but weather authorities predict that rains will affect the entire nation this coming week. Emergency crews found the body of a 5-year-old boy who went missing after he was swept away by water in the downpour in Managua.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Three bodies have been recovered and 16 people are missing, feared dead, after a massive landslide wiped out a remote Papua New Guinea village.

FLORIDA - RECORD RAINFALL floods towns. While hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, recent tropical-like rainfall in Florida found many residents cleaning up from flooding, or waiting for the water to recede, instead of focusing on usual holiday activities over the Memorial Day weekend. Nearly two feet of rain has fallen in parts of central Florida (including Daytona) during the past two weeks. Less than a month ago, emergency officials were warning the severe drought could produce damaging wildfires, instead more than 1,000 buildings have been damaged following record May rains. In parts of the state, Volusia County (in which Daytona Beach is located) in particular, it is estimated that $52 million in damage has already been reported. The early estimate assessments show 967 buildings have already been reported damaged. As people return to their homes and businesses over the next few days, that number is expected to rise dramatically. "I've never seen this much rain," said the executive director of the Florida Coast to Coast chapter of the American Red Cross. "It's worse than with any hurricane or tropical storm I’ve seen." Some prognosticators are saying the UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS they have already seen this year make it more difficult to predict the upcoming hurricane season.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Heat waves in India may signal changing climate. India is being hit by more intense and longer heat waves that are taking a higher toll than usual on lives and the environment. In March-April, over 70 people reportedly died in Orissa due to sunstroke, with mercury soaring to 46 degree centigrade in April in some cities. The state’s health machinery was caught napping. In West Bengal, the heat wave killed nine. ‘ABNORMAL’ dry spells and dust storms swamped Guwahati in Assam, while the entire Malwa region in Madhya Pradesh reeled from a severe water stress. Disturbances in the air circulation pattern over India led to the mercury soaring across the country. Circulation of air helps distribute heat over the earth. The cyclonic storm, Bijli, which formed in the Bay of Bengal in mid-April, cut off the cool easterly winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal. To add to it, an anticyclone hovering around Rajasthan blew hot winds from north–west to central and western India. Some scientists have attributed the heat wave to an exceedingly dry winter, while others have pointed to the UNUSUAL HEATING OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU – which was two degrees warmer than normal in February this year. “Tropical cyclones in the peak cyclone months of May and November have increased, while those occurring in the rest of the year have decreased.”

CROATIA - Warnings issued as Croatia experiences early heat-wave. The heat-wave hitting Croatia for the past few days will continue for a at least a few more.

NORTH DAKOTA - WEIRD WEATHER SYSTEM pushes temps into 90s at night. A perfect storm of weather conditions caused temperatures to rise into the 90s seven miles south of St. Anthony at 2:35 a.m. Wednesday. The temperatures were accompanied by winds in excess of 50 mph. In Flasher, the temperature reached 86 degrees, though the wind was more tame. A meteorologist for 20 years has only seen the strange events that occurred in the areas south of Mandan on Wednesday morning happen once before. The weather event occurred along a warm front. The air about 2,000 or 3,000 feet above the ground was in the 80s, while the ground temperature was in the 50s. Since hot air rises, the pocket of warmer air, or inversion, stays above the cooler ground air. Rain was falling in southwestern North Dakota, and the moisture made it to the Flasher and St. Anthony areas - it just never hit the ground there. About 15,000 feet above the ground, the showers began forming. But as the rain fell through the atmosphere, it encountered the warm, dry air at 2,000 or 3,000 feet above the ground and evaporated. Evaporation is a cooling process, and as the 80-some degree air cooled, it became more dense. "As a result, you end up with cooler air beginning to accelerate down to the ground." Though the air was cooling due to evaporation, it was offset by warming caused by the acceleration of moving toward the ground. That happens through a process called adiabatic warming, in which the volume of a pocket of air shrinks due to increasing atmospheric pressure. The shrinking volume leads to air molecules ricocheting off each other faster, and the increase in movement leads to an increase in temperature. Sometimes, the air will float back up rather than continue to the ground. But on Wednesday morning south of St. Anthony, that didn't happen. "Once it started, it didn't stop. It just kept going to the ground." When the bubble of air hit the ground around 2:35 a.m., it caused the ground temperatures to spike. One thermometer seven miles south of St. Anthony registered 90.5 degrees, and another hit 94.6 degrees. Meteorologists were not sure how long the temperature stayed that high. The air also mixed up the winds, leading to southwest winds at 63 mph, which blew 8-foot corral walls 25 feet away from the railroad-tie posts to which they had been attached. Such events usually occur at night. "These are isolated cases. They're very hard to forecast. You have to have all the right ingredients." The strangely warm morning temperatures could have been a record for the communities.

'Climate change making Everest harder to scale' - A sherpa who holds the world record for climbing Everest has warned that climate change is making the mountain harder to scale. He said that rising temperatures have melted the snow trail to the peak, leaving just barren rocks which is more treacherous to climb.

Debate over: droughts and floods on the rise - Climate change has already claimed the lives of many thousands of people — and millions more are at risk — as severe weather events rage around the world and staple food crops are wiped out, meteorologists have told a world climate conference. More extremes of climate are bringing deadly floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts and ocean surges that are destroying vital food crops, leading to mass starvation in some countries. Debate about whether climate change is occurring or not is obsolete, as the effects of extreme weather incidents are clearly being felt across the globe.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
IRELAND - Atrocious weather is costing Irish farmers more than €2m each day. Experts warn this is only the beginning and it's too soon to estimate the real cost as the fallout will be felt well into 2010. Emergency measures have been employed on farms around the country and it's all about survival at this stage. Soil temperatures are currently two to three degrees BELOW NORMAL for this time of year and recorded growth rates at present are running way below what would be expected. At Teagasc's beef research facility in Grange in the past week, growth rates on the cattle grazing unit were running at less than half the normal rate for this time of year. Worsening ground conditions have also forced the re-housing of stock at the Co Meath unit. Silage prices have shot up to €30-40 a bale and there are even reports of farmers selling cut grass at €100 for each trailer load. Most farmers are now feeding 2-10kg of ration/animal/day. Even so, animal performance, particularly in dairy herds, has been badly affected. Grass shortages have reached "nightmarish" proportions, especially on mixed holdings. In parts of the west, rain levels are three times the normal rate for this time of year.

NORTH CAROLINA - Strawberry farms hit by economy and weather. Farmers say the ideal season for harvesting strawberries is mild temperatures, with a little bit of rain. But this year more extreme temperatures, and greater than expected rain fall, meant many of the berries rotted on the vine, which means fewer weeks of harvesting and less money for the farmers. This year the rain and extreme weather swings has cut the harvest down to six weeks.

2 studies tie disaster risk to urban population surge - A pair of new studies say that more people than ever lie in harm’s way from earthquakes, droughts, floods and other disasters, largely because of a surge in urban populations in developing countries. Smaller or poorer countries can be devastated by disasters that are relatively inconsequential in places shielded by size or wealth. While the economic cost from disasters has risen, the cost as percentage of the global economy has been flat. The mortality rate has been declining in many areas. But in hot spots combining dense populations with the risk of earthquakes, floods and other hazards, the potential for catastrophic impact is growing. “Without governance capacity, the faster you develop, it’s almost like the faster you’re building disasters.” The dominant factor raising death tolls and economic losses from disasters is humanity’s hastening transformation into a mainly urban species, with a surge of people in search of work settling in marginal urban lands and shoddy housing. “Some of the statistics are almost hallucinatory. Some time before 2050, the urban population of India will rise by 500 million people. Mumbai and Calcutta are already very poor about providing land and housing. How will they accommodate tens of millions more? And both cities are in very hazard-prone locations.” (disaster risk map)

HEALTH THREATS -
Federal health officials will probably recommend that most Americans get three flu shots this fall: one regular flu shot and two doses of any vaccine made against the new swine flu strain. Having had annual flu shots for the last several years gives “little or no immune benefit” against the new virus. Many people born before the 1957 Asian flu, and particularly those 65 or older, seem to have antibodies in their blood protecting them against the new virus. Only 1 percent of the 5,764 confirmed and probable swine flu cases thus far have been in people over 65. Across the country, “flu activity” seems to be going down. There has been no unusual increase in deaths from influenza, in general, or pneumonia. Historically, pandemics infect a third of any population over about two years, so unless a vaccine intervenes, 100 million cases of swine flu could be expected. Also, flu activity is still surging in New York, New Jersey and the rest of the Northeast.

AUSTRALIA - Up to 2 million people – 10 per cent of the population - could catch swine flu, warned Australia's chief medical officer. Modelling on a normal influenza season predicted about 10 per cent of the national population could be affected, though it was hoped measures already in place would significantly reduce that possible toll. But with 51 confirmed cases already, it is essentially a "mild disease" that was responding well to antiviral drug Tamiflu, rendering the patient non-infectious within 24 hours and greatly improving their condition to a "one or two day sniffle". "Australia has done tremendously well to delay the input into country. It's given us essentially a month's breather, we now know a lot about the disease. "The difficulty we're now seeing, which we anticipated, was that we are seeing the virus moving within the community with no known contact."

Tuesday, May 26, 2009 -

Make the most of yourself,
for that is all there is of you.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

QUAKES -
Quakes this morning -
5/26/09 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE

Largest quakes yesterday -
5/25/09 -
5.5 OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE
5/24/09 -
5.3 FYR OF MACEDONIA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.6 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.6 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
6.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone Aila - More than 155 people have been killed by Cyclone Aila which hit Bangladesh and the eastern Indian state of West Bengal. At least 500,000 people have been made homeless by the storm. Soldiers and border guards have joined relief efforts, but they are yet to reach some of the devastated areas. Officials say the storm has weakened and is heading north, but heavy rains continue to damage crops and cause floods and landslides in many areas. Cyclone Aila made landfall in south-western Bangladesh on Monday afternoon. Coastal areas were flooded and uprooted trees caused chaos in Calcutta. River banks and mud houses in Bangladesh have been completely destroyed, and crops and fisheries have also been damaged. The fear in Bangladesh is that salt water from a tidal surge that followed the cyclone will contaminate non-saline surface water which is crucial for farming. Wildlife experts say they are concerned about the fate of nearly 500 tigers living in reserves in the affected area. Massive tidal waves ravaged scores of coastal villages and the seaside resorts of Digha, Mandarmoni and Kanthi throughout Monday. (photos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AFGHANISTAN - A mudslide has killed five children in northern Afghanistan, where weeks of heavy rain has killed about 150 people and destroyed hundreds of houses.

BRAZIL - authorities say 408,000 people cannot return home after floods that began last month in the north of the country.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Swine flu has now infected 12,954 people in 46 countries since it was first uncovered last month.

Sunday, May 24, 2009 -

No update (except for the quakes) today and no update on Monday.
Have a great Memorial Weekend!
QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/23/09 -
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS

5/22/09 -
5.7 PUEBLA, MEXICO
5.5 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA

Friday, May 22, 2009 -

Curiously little news to report.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
To die for an idea; it is unquestionably noble.
But how much nobler it would be if men died for ideas that were true!
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/21/09 -
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.7 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.4 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Officials at the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage say seismicity remained elevated Wednesday at Mount Redoubt, and the lava dome continues to grow.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - Unseasonable weather has brought on a large avalanche 2000 metres up Birch Hill in the Aoraki-Mt Cook National Park. The event is UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR and has most likely been brought on by the unseasonable weather in the mountains, which includes two storms. Only two people, hunters, were in the park at the time and were not near the area where the avalanche occurred. It is thought to have happened on either Sunday or Monday. First reports suggested it had been a size five avalanche, the largest on the scale, which would have been capable of wiping out a village. The slip was now thought to be a size four. There has been extensive damage to High Country farm tracks, fencing and flood gates caused by the recent heavy rains, which on Sunday saw the Rangitata River peak at its highest level in 15 years.

HEALTH THREATS -
A substantial portion of older Americans may have some immunity to the swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus, a finding that may prove useful when and if a vaccine to the new flu strain becomes available.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 -

Lack of money is no obstacle. Lack of an idea is an obstacle.
Ken Hakuta

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/20/09 -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
5.3 TONGA REGION

CALIFORNIA - Authorities ordered a Long Beach apartment building evacuated after the structure sustained severe roof damage in a quake that rattled the area earlier in an earthquake aftershock Tuesday afternoon. At least a dozen people were forced out after someone noticed damage to the building's eaves. No injuries were reported. Earlier in the afternoon, a magnitude-4 quake centered near Los Angeles International Airport shook Southern California. The aftershock occurred near the epicenter of Sunday's 4.7 quake, which caused strong shaking and light damage in the beach towns south of the airport.

SAUDI ARABIA - The sun rose Wednesday on cracked houses in Yanbu Al-Bahr as tremors rocked Harat Al-Shaqah in the Al-Eis area all through Tuesday night. The houses had cracks in them as a result of the night’s seismic activity. The Civil Defense received over 350 reports of earth tremors. The people of Yanbu Al-Bahr have opened their doors to the fleeing residents of Al-Eis and are hosting them in their own houses.

VOLCANOES -
SAUDI ARABIA - Civil Defense forces on Tuesday night evacuated all the remaining residents of Al-Eis, some 26,000 people, after a quake measuring 5.4 hit the region on Tuesday, just hours after a 4.8 tremor. Authorities closed all entrance routes coming from Madina, Yanbu and Umluj to Al-Eis town and villages in the vicinity. Authorities evacuated villages in a 20-km radius from the al-Ais volcano. By Wednesday morning streets and houses in Al-Eis were deserted and police and Civil Defense authorities had departed from their stations. The Saudi Geological Survey said Wednesday that an air inspection at “Al-Harrat As-Shaqqah” (lava field) and the surrounding areas revealed the existence of what it described as ground groves at the seismic activity area. It explained the increase in the number of tremors on the rise in temperature and concentration of gas in some regions of volcanic area. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

A trend has emerged since the mid-1970s where storms tend to last longer and be more intense, with a strong correlation to the rise in tropical sea surface temperature. Several large African cities are at risk from rising sea levels and intense storms, experts warn. In such low-income urban centres, infrastructure is often non-existent or ill-maintained, while storm-water drainage infrastructure is often outdated and inadequate. In sub-Saharan Africa, storm surge zones are concentrated in Madagascar, Mauritania, Mozambique and Nigeria. These countries alone account for about half (53 percent) of the total increase in the region’s surge zones resulting from sea level rise and intensified storms. "Coastal flooding has started to be of concern in the last 10 to 15 years. Now, a few times each year, there are people who wake up in water." In 50 years, some coastal towns in Mozambique will disappear if nothing is done - such as Nacala, Beira, Quelimane and Mahajanga. Coastal agriculture, in terms of extent of croplands, will be affected 100 percent in Nigeria, 66.67 percent in Ghana, and 50 percent in Togo and Equatorial Guinea. Mauritania is experiencing the impact of a changing climate exemplified by a steadily creeping desert and other extreme weather events. It is one of the countries likely to be worst affected by intensified storm surges. An average 78 million people worldwide are exposed each year to tropical cyclone wind hazard and another 1.6 million to storm surges. In terms of economic exposure, an annual average of $1,284 billion in GDP is exposed to tropical cyclones. "Currently 10 percent of the world’s total population (over 600 million people) and 13 percent of its urban population (over 360 million people) live on the 2 percent of the world’s land area that is less than 10m above sea level, known as the Low Elevation Coastal Zone."

HAWAII - The Central Pacific Hurricane center announced Wednesday this year's climate conditions point to a near to below normal hurricane season. But there is a small probability that they could see a higher occurrence of cyclones. Hurricane season in Hawaii starts June first through the end of November. There is an 80% that they will see 3 to 5 tropical cyclones. These include tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes. There always some degree of uncertainty. If an El Nino weather pattern amplifies, they could actually see more cyclone activity. That's where the other 20% comes into play and a stronger "El Nino" pattern would bring above normal activity, which is greater than 5 cyclones. Regardless of how many storms are forecast, the National weather Service says now is the time to prepare. During times of natural disaster, government agencies will be busy restoring water, power, and communications as a first priority. Residents should be prepared to survive on their own for up to 5 days.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FLORIDA - A slow-moving low-pressure system has soaked the state for nearly a week. Tampa received 1.26 inches of rain Monday, a record for that date. The old mark of 1.11 inches had stood since 1911. The rains are providing a major boost for the dwindling aquifer, not to mention all the lakes and rivers that had hit record lows. And they have put a damper on the wildfires that have already consumed hundreds of thousands of acres around the state. "This is really what the doctor ordered for most of Florida." The one exception: Northeast Florida, where some areas have already seen more than 11 inches of rain and 50 mph gusts of wind. The combination has produced minor flooding and beach erosion, both likely to be exacerbated by the continued pounding of wind and water. Normally May is the end of the dry season. "I've been here 13 years and I've never seen a May like this. This is an UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENT."

AUSTRALIA - Emergency services are on alert this morning as the brunt of a storm front that threatens destructive 125kmh wind gusts and heavy rain heads for Perth.
Australian authorities declared a state of emergency in Queensland Wednesday as torrential rain and gale force winds caused extensive flooding and left one man dead. Almost 30,000 homes were without power in the state's southeast, where some areas recorded 300 millimetres (12 inches) of rain in 24 hours and wind gusts exceeding 100 kilometres (62 miles) an hour. A 46-year-old man was killed by flying glass when a FREAK WIND GUST smashed in a window on a building on the Gold Coast tourist strip. The floods were causing havoc on roads in southeast Queensland. "There are quite a large number of people who are at this stage isolated in their vehicles and I am further advised there are a number of schools that have been cut off as well." Police said tables, chairs and barbecues had been blown off the top of high-rise buildings on the Gold Coast. Meteorologists have warned the wild weather could last for days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
GEORGIA - After almost a decade-long spell of consistently hot and dry weather, coastal Georgians may have recently noticed A STRING OF WACKY WEATHER PATTERNS bringing an UNUSUAL amount of rain and record-breaking low temperatures. On Monday, Liberty County and the surrounding area experienced a RECORD-BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURE of 66 degrees. “It broke the 1875 record of 71 degrees." To further illustrate the area’s unexpected weather, the record comes on the heels of a noticeably wet spring, which nearly brought the state out of a decade-long drought that once plagued residents with water restrictions and depleted lakes. “I think what we are seeing is a return to more normal patterns after a period of drought. The last decade was dry overall, but there were certainly some wet periods within it, particularly during the tropical storm seasons in 2004 and 2005...Georgia is a subtropical, humid climate where rain is supposed to happen frequently." In April 2009 there were 6.91 inches of rain and only 2.56 in 2008. In May 2009 there has already been 5.28 inches in comparison to 2008’s 1.32 inches. When rain increases, however, weather patterns can get interesting as it often has a snowball effect. “Now that the soils are moist again, it is much easier to generate thunderstorms when we have a front or low pressure area move over Georgia. During the drought, any thunderstorms would evaporate when they hit the dry area, but now they propagate nicely." Liberty-Hinesville Emergency Management Agency monitors changing local weather. Noting strong increases in precipitation and wind, they’re watching conditions daily and are warning people of supersaturated grounds and rotting root systems, which could cause trees to fell. “We’ve had a WEIRD outbreak of tornadoes. We get them every spring, but not like this. THE WHOLE SPRING HAS BEEN UNUSUAL.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

MINNESOTA - The Twin Cities hit a RECORD HIGH of 97 degrees as hot weather pushed across southern and central Minnesota.

UNITED KINGDOM - The Met Office says it is too early to tell whether it will be a very hot summer this year, but the signs so far are that it will be warmer than their last two summers and conditions could well trigger its heatwave warning system.

AUSTRALIA - The devastating February bushfires that killed 173 people generated enough energy to fuel 1500 atomic bombs the size of Hiroshima. "It's an enormous amount of energy." In some areas, the blaze created spotfires 35km ahead of the main fire. It is important to evaluate a fire on a three-dimensional level, taking into account not just surface winds but upper winds created by the plume of smoke above a fire. Trees had been snapped off about three to four metres above ground level in the February 7 Black Saturday bushfires by these types of winds. "You would have needed winds of 120kmh or more to produce that.''

SPACE WEATHER-
'Stealth storm from Sun' captured - Astronomers have captured what they claim is the RARE sight of a "stealth storm" that erupted from the Sun even though its surface looked tranquil. A team caught the sight of the blurp of ionised gas that blasted into space from surface of the Sun without warning, using images taken by the STEREO twin solar probes. The eruption was a coronal mass ejection -- a bubble of plasma that, if energetic enough and pointed at Earth, can well zap satellites, endanger astronauts, and knock out power grids. The Sun ordinarily gives some warning when it is about to let loose a coronal mass ejection (CME). However, the latest observations have shown that the eruptions are simply stealthy and without any prior indication. "This proves coronal mass ejection (CMEs) exist that have no significant signature on the (solar) disk." The CME emerged so stealthily because it didn't originate deep within the sun. Instead, the shallow emission gathered up material over a larger area, causing a less pronounced disturbance at the star's surface. If the plume had been pointed at Earth it would have created a minor geomagnetic storm by space weather standards, but strong enough to affect migratory animals and cause minor fluctuations on power grids. "All the big dangerous things come from much more powerful explosions, which as far as we know are always strong enough to make some signature on the face of the Sun. It's in some sense a mystery because we hadn't actually seen it. But, the team has shown that yes, indeed, that's actually what it is."

HEALTH THREATS -
Flu outbreak tests military pandemic plans - The novel flu outbreak, which launched from North America, wasn't the overseas threat that the US military envisioned when it prepared its pandemic plan, according to details that surfaced in briefing documents obtained by the Associated Press. According to the closely guarded plan, in catastrophic circumstances the military would help law enforcement enforce quarantines, limit travel, and protect government buildings. The six-phase plan also calls for measures to protect the armed services.

The count of confirmed and probable novel H1N1 cases in the United States grew to 5,710, of which 8 were fatal, from 48 states and the District of Columbia. No new states reported confirmed cases. The newly reported deaths of a 44-year-old St Louis man and a 57-year-old Arizona woman were included in the fatality total.

Taiwan reported its first novel H1N1 case, in a 52-year-old foreign physician who had been in the United States several months and arrived in Taiwan via Hong Kong on May 18. Meanwhile, Australia reported four more cases, all in people who had recently been in the United States, raising the country's total to five. Greece was the only new country added to the list, with a report of one case.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 -

We allow our ignorance to prevail upon us and make us think we can survive alone,
alone in patches, alone in groups, alone in races, even alone in genders.
Maya Angelou

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/19/09 -
5.1 EASTERN KASHMIR
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.6 WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA
WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA also had other quakes of 4.6, 4.6 4.9 & 4.9.

CALIFORNIA - A mild earthquake has rattled Los Angeles just two days after a moderate tremor that struck a densely populated area and put the sprawling California metropolis on edge. The 4.1 magnitude quake struck at 3.49pm local time (08.49 AEST) and shook buildings across a wide area of Los Angeles. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The quake was centred just 16km southwest of downtown Los Angeles at a depth of 12.1km, very close to where a 4.7 quake struck on Sunday night. Geologists say an earthquake capable of causing widespread destruction is 99 per cent certain of hitting California within the next 30 years.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

PHILIPPINES - A low-pressure area near Palawan province has intensified into an active low-pressure area (ALPA) and may intensify into a tropical cyclone. The disturbance will be named "Feria" once it becomes a cyclone.

INDIA - a low-pressure area will form over central Bay of Bengal around Saturday (May 23) and intensify thereafter. International models saw a tropical cyclone spinning up out of the system later on. There is an increased chance for tropical cyclone formation in the Bay and further east across into the South China Sea during May 19 to 25. This is being attributed to the anomalous westerly flows and areas of low vertical wind shear and above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While high vertical wind shear kills budding storms, raised SSTs aid storm building. It may hit the Kolkata coast for a landfall around May 27. Later, the remnant system is shown to move in a northwesterly direction into east India. Another model sees the landfall over Bangladesh, subsequent to which the weakened system would head back into mainland India. The NOGAPS sees the cyclonic storm being active within the Bay basin from Friday to Sunday after the causative ‘low’ takes birth in the central Bay.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FLORIDA - the rains Highlands County and West Central Florida are experiencing aren't the usual summer showers and it isn't tropical, either, according to the National Weather Service. "It is not our typical summertime pattern." Some areas have experienced 1 to 2 inches of rain. As much as 4 to 8 inches are possible in some areas of West Central Florida before the week is through. It is part of a dissipating front affecting much of the Florida peninsula followed by a low front trying to form over Cuba. There are conflicting models showing where this front could go, but into the Gulf of Mexico is a likely possibility. "This is not tropical." The hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1. "For the last few days it has seemed more like July than May, as leftover moisture from a dissipated front has combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes to cause scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms."

AUSTRALIA - Brisbane's WETTEST DAY IN EIGHT YEARS. A number of communities have been isolated as torrential rain caused flash-flooding across southeast Queensland, with weather watchers warning the worst is yet to come. Beerburrum has recorded 302mm, its WETTEST 24-HOUR PERIOD IN 17 YEARS, while Redcliffe had 151mm. 89mm fell on Brisbane city in the 24 hours to 9am today. "Daily rainfall totals well in excess of 100mm will be commonplace, and we are expecting falls over the next few days to exceed 500mm in some locations." The weather bureau says widespread flash-flooding will intensify as a low-pressure system hovers off the southeast coast. A number of small communities have been isolated by floodwaters, including Pullenvale in Brisbane's western outskirts.

PHILIPPINES - Rescuers found more bodies under tonnes of mud and debris after rain-induced landslides hit a mining village in the southern Philippines, increasing the death toll to 17.

Back on April 29, a RARE CLOUD FORMATION moved across North Escambia and South Alabama capturing the attention of many North Escambia residents. And now a series of photos from an area resident is giving the opportunity to see the cloud in motion. Forecasters at the NWS did not know exactly what to call the cloud formation, settling on calling it just an “arc cloud”. They say the cloud would have been formed by a rapid surge of warm moist air. (photo & video)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
OHIO - Freezing temperatures are RARE in Northeast Ohio this late in the spring: There is only about a 10 percent chance of going below freezing here after May 15, according to maps from the National Climatic Data Center. But Monday's low temperature of 34 degrees, recorded at 4:20 a.m. at the airport, BROKE THE PREVIOUS LOW MARK of 36, set in 1985.

SOUTH CAROLINA - A WEATHER RECORD WAS SHATTERED Monday, with the area posting the LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN ITS HISTORY. Monday’s high was around 57 degrees. Before that, the lowest high temperature was 71 degrees in 1875 for Savannah. There is no record temperature data for Beaufort County; Savannah is the closest weather station. “We’re going to shatter that record by 10 to 15 degrees, which is quite impressive." They attribute the record cool to a weather pattern called “cold air damming” that is usually seen in this area in January and February. It is “QUITE UNUSUAL” for that pattern to occur in May. It is caused when cold, dry air from the piedmont of Georgia and North Carolina is met by cool, light rain. The rain evaporates, cooling the air even further.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The global number of novel H1N1 cases climbed to 9,830 cases in 40 countries. The count includes 3,648 cases and 72 deaths from Mexico, 5.123 cases and 5 deaths in the United States (as of yesterday), 496 cases and 1 death in Canada, and 9 cases and 1 death in Costa Rica. No new countries were added to the list.

The US stockpile contains only 39 million surgical masks, far short of the 27 billion federal officials say would be needed in a serious influenza pandemic. The nation's supply of 80 million respirators also falls short of the government's 3 billion estimate. Also, most of the masks are made in Mexico or China, and it's unclear if the few US-based companies could supply enough for a serious outbreak. The CDC has said the benefits of wearing surgical masks are unclear.

New strain of MRSA seems to be triggering a deadly form of pneumonia in people who catch flu. Researchers believe the new strain of the antibiotic-resistant bacterium is becoming more widespread. Unlike most forms of the superbug, it poses a significant risk outside hospitals. Death rates following infection may be higher than 50%. The emergence of swine flu could intensify the problem, as CA-MRSA appears to strike people who are already ill with flu. The latest study warns that community-acquired cases are beginning to increase.

Excessive cola consumption can lead to anything from mild weakness to profound muscle paralysis, doctors are warning. This is because the drink can cause blood potassium to drop dangerously low. There is a curious case of an Australian ostrich farmer who needed emergency care for lung paralysis after drinking 4-10 litres of cola a day. He made a full recovery and was advised to curtail his cola drinking. "We have every reason to think that it is not rare."

Tuesday, May 19, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
It was once said by pessimists that a black man would be president “when pigs fly”.
But indeed, 100 days into Obama’s presidency, “swine flu !”

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/18/09 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.7 NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

CALIFORNIA - Glass shattered and ceiling tiles fell as a moderate tremor shook laid-back Southern California, rattling residents' nerves and reminding them they need to update earthquake emergency plans. No significant damage or major injuries were reported but the greater Los Angeles region vibrated for about 10 to 15 seconds Sunday night and the tremor was felt as far south as San Diego. "This was a serious jolt." It measured magnitude-4.7 and was centered about 10 miles southwest of downtown Los Angeles and three miles east of Los Angeles International Airport. At least 10 aftershocks had followed by early Monday, with the largest registering magnitude-3.1. "People should be on their toes." Glass broke at a Starbucks in Torrance, and one person there was taken to a hospital for treatment of minor injuries. Ceiling tiles fell in a movie theater during a screening of "Angels and Demons" in Redondo Beach and moviegoers fled. Television images showed a storefront window knocked out of a Long Beach drapery business. The shaking was most intense in the coastal communities south of the airport, including Long Beach. The quake originated 8.4 miles below the surface and appeared consistent with movement on the Newport-Inglewood fault. That fault was responsible for the magnitude-6.4 Long Beach earthquake in 1933 that killed 120 and caused more than $50 million in damage. The last damaging earthquake in Southern California was the 1994 magnitude-6.7 Northridge quake that toppled bridges and buildings. Since Northridge, the region has been in a relative seismic lull, although activity has picked up in the past year. Last summer, a 5.4-magnitude quake was centered in Chino Hills, east of Los Angeles, but did not cause major damage. Earlier this year, an earthquake swarm shook the desert near the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. "The activity that we've seen in the past year isn't the highest by a long shot, but I WOULD NO LONGER CALL LOS ANGELES QUIET." (map)

VOLCANOES -
SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi authorities evacuated five western villages on Monday after tremors hit a volcanic region in the past weeks raising concerns of possible eruptions. A 4.68 earthquake hit the region on Sunday. "There was a large quake, the largest so far." Al-Ais, 150 km (100 miles) northeast of the Yanbu on the Red Sea, is not close to the oil and petrochemicals facilities. The region lies on a fault line, and newspapers reported that in the past few days magma levels had risen to 4 km (2.5 miles) below the surface from 8 km. Fears of an eruption in dormant volcanoes in al-Ais have sent panic stricken residents voluntarily fleeing to the holy city of Medina and Yanbu last week.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Swelled rivers that have flooded homes to their rooftops and forced more than 260,000 people from their homes in northeastern Brazil will probably take a few more weeks to recede, Brazilian authorities said over the weekend. The intense flooding has paralyzed large swaths of this sweltering tropical region, where schools and government buildings have been closed for weeks and whole towns are almost underwater. While water levels have receded somewhat in recent days, showers continued through the weekend. The flooding, which began in April, has been the third-worst in the past 49 years, based on the amount of rainfall in a single month. It is the second time in six months that intense flooding has turned into a regional disaster. In November, torrential rains in Santa Catarina, in the south, caused landslides that left 135 people dead and swept more than 78,000 from their homes, affecting some 60 towns. “What we are observing in the last few years in Brazil is a pattern of droughts and more intense rains.” Colder temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which climatologists have called the La Niña effect, are colliding with warmer temperatures in the tropical southern Atlantic Ocean, one possible explanation for the extreme weather patterns. (photos & map)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
MASSACHUSETTS - RECORD-BREAKING COLD expected to bring frost to Western Massachusetts. Record-breaking temperatures in many areas are expected to sink into the upper 20s.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - This month has been the SUNNIEST ON RECORD in Perth, but the run of unseasonal weather is about to end as the rain arrives and temperatures tumble.

U.S. - One hundred degree heat will again be expected throughout the Southwest today, with triple-digit temperatures reaching as far north as Northern California. Temperatures should top out AT LEAST 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL from California's Central Valley into Oregon. A heat advisory is in effect today for the San Francisco Bay area and the central coast of California. This excessive heat will affect air quality, with code red (unhealthy) air quality forecast for Bakersfield, Fresno and Visalia, Calif. The rapid snowmelt associated with the heat will also increase the avalanche risk today for California's Mount Shasta.

COLORADO - RECORD HEAT on the way for Denver. While temperature in the 90s before Memorial Day are UNUSUAL for Denver, it is not unprecedented.

HEALTH THREATS -
Japan reported a spike in novel H1N1 cases - Health officials voiced concern over a surge in novel H1N1 influenza cases in Japan, particularly among young people. Case numbers rose from 4 to 129 over the weekend, leading to more than 2,000 school closures. Many of the new cases are from Kobe and Osaka, where officials believe the virus spread during a high school volleyball tournament. Community spread in a region outside of North America could trigger a rise in the world's pandemic alert level, although WHO has been urged to go slow on declaring a pandemic.

The global number of novel H1N1 cases pushed to 8,829 in 40 countries. The count includes 3,103 cases and 68 deaths in Mexico, 4,714 cases and 4 deaths in the United States (as of May 15), 496 cases and 1 death in Canada, and 9 cases and 1 death in Costa Rica. Countries reporting their first cases over the past few days include Ecuador, Peru, India, Malaysia, Turkey, and Australia.

An assistant principal at a New York City school shuttered with a high rate of novel H1N1 infections died Sunday night, raising the number of US deaths from the disease to six. The 55-year-old man died 6 days after he became ill. His family said his only underlying condition was gout. The man reportedly received an experimental modality using ultraviolet rays to decrease pathogens in the blood. Other outlets reported he was also treated with ribivirin.

Some UNUSUAL PATTERNS are emerging with the novel H1N1 virus in young people. Officials have already noted that the new virus has disproportionately affected younger people. However, hospitalizations are primarily occurring in those 5 to 24 years old. Also, the number of school closures this late in the season in diverse parts of the country is also UNUSUAL.

Monday, May 18, 2009 -

An idea is salvation by imagination.
Frank Lloyd Wright

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/17/09 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.4 NORTH OF SVALBARD
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 ATACAMA, CHILE
5.6 TONGA

CALIFORNIA - A prolonged 5.0 earthquake shook the Los Angeles area on Sunday, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. Residents across a wide area of Los Angeles felt a sharp rumbling that lasted 10 to 15 seconds at about 8:39 p.m. (11:39 p.m. EDT/0339 GMT).
The tremor follows a 5.4 earthquake which jolted Los Angeles last July, the most powerful seismic shock to rock the city in 14 years.

WESTERN NORTH AMERICA - The Cascadia Subduction Zone has ruptured its entire length from Northern California to Vancouver Island, B.C., about 19 to 20 times in the past 10,000 years. Each event measured 9 plus, with the last major earthquake occurring Jan. 26, 1700. The subduction zone has modes, with the southern portion rupturing more often, albeit with less intensity, than the central and northern zones. Washington has experienced a major earthquake about every 500 years; central Oregon, about every 450 years; and the southern Oregon/Northern California area, about every 250 years. "If you are in northern Oregon, there is between a 15 and 25 percent chance of an earthquake in the next 50 years. As you go south, the probability for having one in the next 50 years goes up and up and up." For a time, one hypothesis held that the Juan de Fuca plate had frozen and ceased to subduct. A second was that the plates were so lubricated with sediment that they had suppressed the earthquakes. Now scientists believe the Juan de Fuca plate and the North America plate are locked in a fierce battle, with the basaltic Juan de Fuca plate pushing the weaker North America plate back 35 millimeters per year -- about 17.5 meters (about 57.5 feet) in the past 500 years. That could mean trouble is brewing. "They are compressing like springs, ratcheting tighter and tighter and tighter. Eventually, it will break. When it does, the North America plate will spring 17.5 meters in a minute or so. It has been squished for 500 years, and it is going to get all that back all at once. It is a huge amount of energy. The biggest energy release on Earth." (map)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA's tsunami early warning system has been vandalised and pilfered, possibly by Indonesian pirates or scrap metal collectors. The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that one of its five deep ocean buoys used to provide Australia with at least 90 minutes of warning needed to be replaced because it had been picked apart. Two of the buoys are positioned in international waters between Australia and Indonesia. The bureau has previously expressed concern about the prospect of the buoys, worth about $500,000 each, being stolen or pilfered by pirates.

SOUTH AFRICA - Sea tempests threaten to destroy Kalk Bay landmarks. This weekend extreme weather lashed Cape Town and the storm-battered former fishing village of Kalk Bay. Kalk Bay is at the front line in the stormy debate over climate change and the contested theory of rising sea levels, with top ocean scientists at loggerheads over whether businessmen will survive the storm or be flushed out to sea. One man's insurance company has cancelled his policy after massive waves caused R1-million damage last year to his restaurants at Kalk Bay harbour. He had three spectacular restaurants overlooking False Bay. But he didn’t bank on the sea getting closer to him, or crashing right through his kitchens. “We paid (insurance) for 10 years and never had a claim. Then the one big hit and they just said bugger this we’re going. I don’t know exactly what the answer is now. We’re not insured at the moment and it’s a concern. The problem is I’ve got the lease here for 24 years. I don’t know what will happen, maybe it will be an underwater restaurant here.” The owner of the Kalk Bay restaurant The Brass Bell also has no insurance against sea-water damage. “They also say they won’t insure me for sea-water damage, otherwise the premiums would be astronomical." Most seafront restaurants were hard at work this week preparing for a low-pressure system travelling south of the country. The veteran Kalk Bay harbour master said weather conditions had deteriorated over the past 30 years. Last year he had to relocate the entire rock lobster trawler fleet due to massive waves. “Every year it seems to be getting worse...The sea is getting rougher and wind picks up more and has become more unpredictable.” Violent waves and storm damage have prompted action from several coastal municipalities, including Cape Town and Durban. A study commissioned by the city of Cape Town found there was a one-in-five chance that vast chunks of territory could be flooded by waves as high as 6.5m within the next 25 years. Less dramatic, but nevertheless catastrophic, events like the storm with 2.5m waves that tore into Ballito in KwaZulu-Natal in 2007 — are considered almost a certainty.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

FLORIDA - Low pressure in Caribbean heads their way . As of Sunday afternoon, the flare-up to the southeast of Jamaica looks impressive, but is really just a disorganized complex of showers and storms. In fact, it doesn’t have many tropical characteristics as it’s associated with a mid to upper-level trough and has cooler air aloft. Tropical systems have warm cores throughout the atmosphere and stand independently from troughs and fronts. Regardless, the area of low pressure is going to move in their direction and bring the State of Florida plenty of rainfall (2-8 inches) from this afternoon through Wednesday. Brush fire and drought problems continue across parts of central Florida, but Mother Nature will help that in a big way. The winds on the east and northeast coast will be onshore so riptides and beach erosion may come in to play over there. The area of low pressure looks like it wanders northwest into the northern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and Friday. If it has any chance to become a sub-tropical storm (which would give it the name Ana), it would be late in the week as it moves just off the Louisiana to Florida Panhandle coastline. It would be in this area that it could separate itself from the upper-level trough and strong wind shear which prohibits development. Water temperatures are just above the 80 degree mark so the core of the system could become warmer, but, the waters quickly cool just beneath the surface so it’s hard to envision this system picking up a lot of strength. Some of that cooler water beneath the surface would quickly get pulled up, restricting future development. Right now it’s still a low chance that it gets the first name of the season, but name it or not, it will bring plenty of rain and breezy weather to the state.

PHILIPPINES - State weather forecasters are monitoring on a low-pressure area (LPA) off Palawan, which they said has a “50-50" chance of intensifying into a cyclone. "Let’s give it a 50-50 chance, but it is very near a land mass. Most likely it will end up in the South China Sea where tropical cyclone ‘Emong’ came from." As of 2 a.m., the LPA was estimated at 200 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone affecting the Visayas and Mindanao.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Victoria's road system could not support a massive evacuation in the event of catastrophic bushfire events similar to Black Saturday. Mandatory evacuations need extensive infrastructure which Victoria does not have. In California, which has a mandatory evacuation system, 22 people still died in one incident six years ago. "I've seen situations in California where the very extensive freeway system they have is just log-jammed with cars...The road network in Victoria certainly wouldn't support that sort of a huge scale leaving."

HEALTH THREATS -
Swine flu claimed its first death in New York and more schools were shut in the city as the number of infections worldwide swelled to more than 8000. The number of confirmed cases of the new Influenza A (H1N1) flu has climbed to 8480 while the death toll has remained static at 72.

The number of infection cases of influenza A/H1N1 in the Asia-Pacific region hit 121 on Sunday and the region is now facing the risk of grass-root outbreak.

More than 90 cases of swine flu have been confirmed in Japan although none of the A/H1N1 cases are critical. The figures have been rising rapidly and WHO may raise the alert level.

The global spread of swine flu could have notable effects on the world economy, according to a senior IMF official, who's warned the financial crisis is far from over. The risks posed by the new type of flu are "hard to predict'' but it could have "notable economic effects.''

Sunday, May 17, 2009 -

A little learning is a dangerous thing but a lot of ignorance is just as bad.
Bob Edwards

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/16/09 -
5.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.8 SOUTH OF ALASKA
6.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5/15/09 -
5.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.0 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA

ALASKA - A series of moderate earthquakes as strong as 5.9-magnitude have shaken the southern edge of the US state of Alaska off the coast of Kodiak Island. The strongest quake struck at 6:22pm GMT (4.22am AEST) in the Gulf of Alaska about 98 km southeast of Kodiak, an island of about 14,000 people that serves as a popular eco-tourism destination. The temblor occurred at a depth of 12 km and about 560 km southwest of Alaska's largest city, Anchorage. Several quakes of magnitude 5.0 or higher rattled the region in the minutes and hours before the 5.9 quake. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage in the area from the "swarm" of more than two dozen earthquakes which occurred off Kodiak Island in recent days.

SAUDI ARABIA - Forty percent of the residents of Al-Eis have left their homes and relocated to Madina and Yanbu as a result of the series of earth tremors that hit the area on Thursday, including one particularly strong tremor that created general panic and caused cracks to appear in some buildings. Official sources confirmed that there has been a mass exodus of residents due to the fear that the tremors will continue to increase in intensity. President of the National Earthquakes and Volcanoes Center confirmed that the strongest tremor registered 3.9 on the Richter scale while the weakest registered 3.0. As to the possibility of the recent rains affecting the intensity of the tremors, the rains might have an effect on the rocks in mountainous areas causing rock slides, which in turn might cause weak tremors which sometimes occur in the mountains of Asir. Rain might also lead to water entering the pores of calcareous rocks and dissolving them resulting in the formation of caves and landslides which has occurred in the sedimentary rock cover in the Eastern Province. However, regarding what is taking place in Harrat Al-Shaqqah, the situation there is different. The analyses conducted by the SGS indicate that these tremors are linked to the movement of molten rocks (magma) below the surface. Furthermore, they are comparatively deep, between 5 km and 7 km in depth. 29 tremors hit Al-Eis area on Thursday.
SAUDI ARABIA - Evacuation begins as tremors continue - Local residents have become increasingly alarmed after experiencing the biggest tremor thus far registering 4.15 on the Richter scale early Thursday following ten successive tremors, some of which were felt for the first time as far as Yanbu located 150 km from Al-Eis. The forced evacuation stage will not begin until there are indications of great danger. Informed sources said the molten rocks (magma) being pushed upward have reached 3 km below the surface of the earth whereas recently they were at a depth of 4 km. As a result of the new tremors, cracks have appeared in several houses in Al-Qarrassah village while bricks toppled from the top of some buildings. Civil Defense teams rushed to inspect the damages that were evident in one house, constructed seven years ago, which had never had cracks before. Local residents have started sleeping outdoors in the courtyards of their houses fearing tremors. Also, Civil Defense patrols have spread throughout the region.

VOLCANOES -
SAUDI ARABIA - Rumblings from Al-Ais volcanoes send villagers into state of panic - Rumblings from the direction of extinct volcanoes in Al-Ais, which was hit by a series of tremors over the last couple of weeks, sent villagers in the area into a state of near panic in the early hours Thursday. “Most of the local people spent the night in a state of extreme anxiety when a thunder-like rumble was heard." Despite repeated reassurances from the Saudi Geological Survey that there was nothing to worry about, the provincial branch of the Civil Defense is battle-ready with personnel and equipment to face any eventuality. Civil Defense teams have been patrolling villages where tremors were experienced to reassure people. The teams are also checking the safety of buildings in the region. Al-Harrah Mountain was the source of the rumbling noise and the epicenter of the recent tremors. The mountain, with its jet-black stones and sand devoid of any flora and fauna, diffused an air of eeriness all around. The tremors were due to subterranean volcanic activity in the Harrat Al-Shaqqah area. The SGS registered 11 seismic tremors since last Tuesday in Al-Ais, the biggest of which measured 3.7 on the Richter scale. A US scientist currently visiting the Kingdom dismissed the tremors as usual underground activity that did not pose any threat to the safety of people living in the area. “The tremors experienced in some villages in Madinah province are normal and not dangerous. It is normal underground movement along a fault line.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Novel flu outbreak expanding - Novel H1N1 influenza is expanding across the country, with 22 states reporting widespread or regional illnesses. The spike in flu activity is UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, when infections from seasonal strains have typically tapered off. The seasonal influenza strains are responsible for half of the spike, which was attributed to increased testing throughout the nation for the novel strain. The CDC is seeing some geographic variation in illness patterns, with highest activity levels in the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest. Though the number of confirmed and probable cases is growing quickly, the total number will become less meaningful, because case confirmations are evolving to mainly reflect just the severe cases that are now the target of testing. The total likely underestimates the true number of novel H1N1 cases in the United States, which could be as high as 100,000. Although some afebrile novel H1N1 infections have been seen in Mexico, the CDC hasn't detected the lack of fever as a prominent feature of US infections. CDC experts and their global partners are exploring the possibility of mutations in the new virus. Analyses of genetic sequences haven't identified any that would make the new strain more virulent so far. The agency is investigating whether another novel H1N1 virus may have been identified in three Mexican states.

Swine flu will spread further across the world, experts at the World Health Organisation warned, as the number of confirmed cases surged by more than 1000 and the US reported two more deaths. Studies by experts indicated a “significant number of people” had been infected, but remained undetected or unconfirmed by laboratory tests. “Their work also suggests that the virus is transmissible enough that we will expect to see continued community level outbreaks and regional spread." WHO data showed 7520 people in 34 countries were confirmed to have caught the influenza A(H1N1) virus, up 1000 from Thursday. Most of the deaths had occurred in Mexico, where the Mexican officials said death toll rose by two yesterday to 66 with the epidemic having sickened 2829 people there.

Friday, May 15, 2009 -

Don't worry about people stealing an idea. If it's original, you will have to ram it down their throats.
Howard Aiken

QUAKES -
5/14/09 -
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -
AUSTRALIA - 5/6/09 - A Newtown man has described seeing a meteorite-like shower of sparks over Highton the night the suburb was rocked by an explosion. He believes some type of debris burnt up in the atmosphere, causing sparks in shades of green and the noise. "I thought straight away something has come in from space, I thought it was a meteorite or something like that. It was definitely something coming in, it came down on the angle. You could say it was like a flare coming down but a flare just floats down, this thing was barrelling until it disintegrated and it had a tail." Residents reported hearing an explosion about 8.30pm last Tuesday. The noise drew people from their houses. Highton and Belmont fire brigade units responded to a call-out but were unable to find a source for the blast. The big bang followed similar reports of a boom at Grovedale between 10pm and 11pm on April 30. Electricity and gas companies all but ruled out faulty lines as causes. Residents in Melrose Ave off North Valley Rd, Highton, earlier this week said it sounded like a rock had been thrown at their kitchen window.

SOUTH CAROLINA - 5/13/09 - Reports of an earthquake in Pawleys Island Wednesday are unconfirmed. Initial reports of an earthquake came in between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. Seismometers around the state do not show an earthquake, however, data coverage in the area is sparse and a small earthquake out to sea is still possible. Another possible source of earthquake reports, especially rattling along the coast, is a sonic boom at sea. While planes are not allowed to cross the sound barrier over land, they are allowed to do so at sea and weather conditions may cause that boom to travel long distances. There have been earthquake reports in years past from John’s Island and Isle of Palms that did not show up on any seismometers and are strongly suspected to be sonic booms.

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - The Shiveluch Volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula released a small plume of vapor as the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer on NASA’s Terra satellite passed overhead on May 10. Shiveluch exhibited above-normal seismic activity from May 6 to May 12, and ash plumes may have reached a height of 6.7 kilometers (22,000 feet).

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

The Gulf of Mexico may see intense, rapidly developing hurricanes during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season that appear to pop up without warning. "We're not going to see the long-term classic storms crossing the Atlantic and the Caribbean like we saw in 2008. We may see rapidly developing storms like (hurricanes) Humberto and Alicia." Hurricane Humberto popped up off Port Arthur, Texas, in 2007 before coming ashore to knock out electrical power to three refineries. Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was the last hurricane to hit Houston before 2009's Hurricane Ike. AccuWeather may cut the number of tropical storms forecast to form in the 2009 hurricane season, which begins June 1, from a prediction of 10 made on Thursday morning. "I may even drop that a bit further."
The conditions reducing the overall number of storms contribute to increased risk of rapid development close to the Gulf Coast. An El Nino pattern of warm water in the Pacific Ocean is forming. An El Nino creates wind shear that can blow apart tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf. Also, sea waters in the tropical Atlantic off the west African coast are cooler than last year, when 16 tropical storms formed, including eight hurricanes, four of which impacted the U.S. coast. High pressure in Africa is blowing dry air and dust into the tropical Atlantic, which further inhibits storm development. This year, however, high winds in the stratosphere favor rapid development off the Gulf Coast. "We're not talking long-developing African waves. We're talking about in-close development. That's what I'm concerned about."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
IRELAND - Atrocious weather conditions along the western seaboard have plunged livestock and tillage farmers into despair. Rainfall levels in the west were three times higher than normal last week -- supposedly the start of summer. Dairy farmers on heavy soils in Kerry, Limerick, the west and northwest have been forced to re-house cows for the past 10-14 days. The move is costing them dearly in terms of lower milk protein levels, higher feed costs and reduced fertility. "The full effect of the disastrous weather will not be known until next spring, when farmers have empty cows and late calvers. Fertility is reduced in stressed cows and heat detection rates are lower when cows are indoors." Milk suppliers are being forced to feed poor-quality silage and up to 7kg of expensive ration to boost milk yields. Farmers in Kerry have seen milk yields fall by 0.5-1.5gal/cow over the past fortnight. Some have resorted to cutting grass on drier out-farms and bringing it directly into the sheds for cows, but this is only an option for some farmers. Spring cereal crops are also suffering from the recent weather conditions. Growth was poor because of the cold, wet and windy conditions. Some crops were patchy because of nitrogen deficiency caused by waterlogged areas in fields. Meanwhile, potato growers have only 50pc of the crop harvested at a time when at least 75pc should be sown.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

The collapse of a major polar ice sheet will not raise global sea levels as much as previous projections suggest, a team of scientists has calculated. The researchers said that the demise of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would result in a sea level rise of 3.3m (10 ft). Previous estimates had forecast a rise in the region of five to six metres. However, they added, the rise would still pose a serious threat to major coastal cities, such as New York. "Sea level rise is considered to be the one of the most serious consequence of climate change. A sea level rise of just 1.5m would displace 17 million people in Bangladesh alone." The world has three ice sheets, Greenland, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, but it is the latter that is considered most vulnerable to climatic shifts. "It has been hypothesised for more than 30 years now that the WAIS is inherently unstable. This instability means that the ice sheet could potentially rapidly collapse or rapidly put a lot of ice into the oceans." "Sea level rise is not uniform across the world's oceans, partly as a result of disruptions to the Earth's gravity field. It turns out that the maximum increase in sea level rise is centred at a latitude of about 40 degrees along the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards of North America." This would include cities such as San Francisco and New York. These areas could expect increases of one-and-a-quarter times the global average.

HEALTH THREATS -
Human noses too cold for bird flu - Bird flu may not have become the threat to humans that some predicted because our noses are too cold for the virus to thrive, say UK researchers.

Experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) today made no decision on recommending mass production of a vaccine for the novel H1N1 virus, and how soon such a recommendation might come is uncertain.

Poll finds low demand for potential new flu vaccine - A poll found that only 30% of respondents would get a vaccine for the novel H1N1 outbreak if one was available. Only 18% saw the outbreak as a severe threat, and 96% said they have not curbed their visits to restaurants or malls. Forty percent were confident in the government's ability to manage the outbreak. Only 36% of respondents said they received a flu immunization for the 2008-09 season.

WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived - An international group of experts has examined and rejected the idea proposed recently by an Australian scientist that the novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) virus is the product of a laboratory accident. "The evidence suggests that this is a naturally derived virus, and not a laboratory-derived virus...We live in an age when it's really not possible to hide things. "
The WHO continues to be concerned about the fact that most of the people infected with the H1N1 virus have been young. About half of those who died were healthy and had no predisposing conditions. "It's HIGHLY UNUSUAL for young, healthy people to die from influenza. So this is a pattern which is different than what we see with normal influenza," though it has been seen in previous pandemics.

Climate change will present the greatest threat to health this century, amplifying the risk of disease, malnutrition and homelessness through floods, drought and rising sea levels, a medical panel said on Thursday. "Even the most conservative estimates are profoundly disturbing and demand action. Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century." Changing weather patterns could widen the habitat of disease-bearing mosquitoes, bringing malaria and dengue to previously cold regions, while flooding in poor countries will be a boon for cholera and other water-borne diseases. Indirect effects on health include malnutrition as a result of poor harvests; injury and death from storms; and vulnerability from migration, as populations flee swamped delta cities or civil unrest.

Thursday, May 14, 2009 -

A person is never happy except at the price of some ignorance.
Anatole France

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/13/09 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.8 TONGA
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

Munich Re is marketing a 100 million euro catastrophe bond that will protect the world's biggest reinsurer against losses from European windstorms and Turkish earthquakes. The three-year bond will be managed by Munich Re itself. The deal will be the first catastrophe bond of 2009 based on a non-U.S. peril. Some investors have bemoaned a lack of diversity in the sector, which has seen nearly $1 billion of new supply so far this year. Total 2009 issuance is forecast to reach about $3 billion. Munich Re last tapped the catastrophe bond market in March 2008, securitising European windstorm risk with a 170 million euro transaction. Only one catastrophe bond covering potential losses from earthquakes in Turkey has been issued to date. Munich Re has previously transferred Japanese earthquake risk to the capital markets, placing a $250 million catastrophe bond dubbed Midori in October 2007 for the East Japan Railway Company. It arranged a $300 million Japanese quake transaction, Muteki Re, for sponsoring insurer Zenkyoren in May 2008. Insurers have used catastrophe bonds since the 1990s to manage their exposure to natural disasters by transferring potential losses to investors, who receive a high interest rate but risk losing their principal if a catastrophe occurs. A $150 million transaction for U.S. insurer USAA is also currently being marketed. The deal will provide USAA and subsidiaries with three-year protection against losses over $35 million from U.S. hurricane and earthquakes, with one tranche also covering potential losses from severe thunderstorms, winter storms and wildfires.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Tropical storm Fay never attained hurricane status, yet dumped over two feet of rain in many areas of Florida in August of 2008. Fay may not be remembered with Charley, Ivan, Wilma and the other devastating storms that have slammed Florida over the past few years. But emergency responders say they get headaches thinking about Tropical Storm Fay, and the chaotic path it followed across Florida last August STILL CONFOUNDS SCIENTISTS. Fay, which caused $195 million in damage and killed five people in the state, underscored the danger that even seemingly lesser storms pose. It also highlighted the uncertainty that remains in storm forecasting, despite increasingly sophisticated computer models and remarkable advances in accuracy over the past 15 years.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BAHRAIN - Weather conditions in Bahrain over the last two days are HIGHLY UNUSUAL for this time of the year, according to meteorology officials. Strong surface winds, with average speeds of between 24 and 25 knots have been reported in Bahrain since Monday night with gushes of wind sometimes reaching between 34 and 36 knots. "This is expected to continue over the next few days and should subside by Friday." The high-velocity north-westerly, "40-day winds" normally begin in early June and continue till the middle of July. "We are experiencing these conditions because of a low pressure area over India and Pakistan. They begin as soon as the monsoon season begins to set in in the Indian sub-continent." It was also UNUSUAL for the monsoons to set in so early. "This is VERY UNUSUAL and experts all over the region have nothing else to blame than global warming and climate change...It is unusual now, but if it happens over and over again, it will affect the weather patterns in this part of the world." People should take care in the high velocity winds and fishermen were warned not to venture out into the sea unless necessary. The winds were leading to rising sands in several places, which was causing discomfort to workers and motorists.

KENTUCKY - the storm on Friday was VERY UNIQUE and the National Weather Service center is still researching exactly what happened Friday. This is apparent with the inability to even name what it was. “One of my friends calls it a meso-cane. A meso-scale storm that looks like a hurricane.” Despite its popular nickname "inland hurricane," it was really several storms in one that formed with hurricane force winds that ripped through the area on Friday. Friday’s storm was born in Springfield, Mo. and died out around Harrisburg. The storm traveled at speeds of over 60 miles per hour and blew winds exceeding 100 mph, uprooting trees, flipping trailers and destroying homes along the way. At first the storm looked like one large area of thunderstorms, but once it moved in to southern Illinois it became apparent it was something larger. Once the hurricane force winds formed, the thunderstorms around it followed into Illinois and were swept in with the circulation. There really isn’t anything in history to compare the storm to except a 2007 tropical storm that hit Oklahoma called Tropical System Erin, killing 16 people and causing millions of dollars in damage. The NWS knew there would be severe weather but they couldn’t have predicted the storm that came to be Friday. Red flags weren’t raised until the center in St. Louis called. “They called us screaming they were getting stormy wind damage."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ARCTIC - One estimate for the demise of summer sea-ice in the Arctic says that the ice, which has been a permanent feature for at least 100,000 years, is now so thin that almost all of it will DISAPPEAR IN ABOUT A DECADE. It will become seasonal, forming only during the winter. "By 2013, we will see a much smaller area in summertime than now; and certainly by about 2020, I can imagine that only one area will remain in summer." Until recently, most climate forecasts suggested that the Arctic Ocean would have ice-free summers only towards the end of the century. The most extreme scenario was for the ice to retreat as soon as 2013, but that was dismissed by many as far too soon. Now there is "almost a breakdown" in the ice-cover. "It's like the Arctic is covered with an egg shell and the egg shell... is now just cracking completely." Over most of the Arctic, there has been a massive decline in the amount of so-called multi-year ice - ice that is tough enough to withstand the summer warmth. Much of what is left of this ice accumulates in an area north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island in Canada, and may form "a last holdout, a kind of Alamo". "The change is happening so fast. It's the result of this steady thinning over four decades that has brought it to a state where its summer melt is causing it to disappear." After a record melt in 2007, and an above-average melt last year, this coming summer is seen as crucial for determining the rate at which the sea-ice will disappear. An ice service analyst said that the ice was likely to retreat as much as it had in the past two years. Typically, about 40% of the Arctic Ocean is covered with older, thicker ice, but that has been greatly reduced

Climate change appears to be cutting the winter snowpack in Washington's Cascade Range by at least 20 percent.

Some Michigan mammal species are rapidly expanding their ranges northward, apparently in response to climate change.

HEALTH THREATS -
Some H1N1 patients have no fever - Many people who have novel H1N1 influenza don't experience fever, which could make the illness difficult to identify. During recent consultations at two Mexican hospitals, a third of the patients screened had no fever, but nearly all had a cough and malaise. About 12% had diarrhea, and passage of the virus in stools would present infection control problems.

The tally of confirmed novel H1N1 flu cases in the United States rose to 3,352 in 45 states today, compared with 3,009 yesterday. The death toll remained at 3. Illinois continued to have the most cases with 592, followed by Wisconsin with 496. Texas had 293 cases, California 221, and New York 211.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 -

The vitality of thought is in adventure. Ideas won't keep. Something must be done about them.
Alfred North Whitehead

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/12/09 -
5.7 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.4 GUAM REGION
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
6.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 POTOSI, BOLIVIA

VOLCANOES -
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - Fears are rife that Mount Nyamulagira in the Democratic Republic of Congo may soon erupt. This comes on the heels of a significant increased volcanic activity around Goma in the east of the country. Residents say by day, the air in the city is thick with volcanic dust. By night, residents can often see the red glow of burning lava trickling out of the summit of the nearest volcano, Mount Nyiragongo. Significantly increased temperatures have been recorded around Mount Nyiragongo recently and a larger than usual cloud of volcanic dust was being thrown into the skies. However, it is Mount Nyamulagira that is likely to erupt.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Tsunami 'could annihilate data cables' - Scientists from the nation's leading tsunami authority believe that 70 per cent of Australia's undersea cable capacity would be destroyed in a single stroke if a tsunami similar to the one that devastated coastal Thailand and Sri Lanka in 2004 were to strike Hawaii. Hawaii is the main thoroughfare for cables linking Australia to the rest of the world. The cables were built after Hawaii's most recently recorded major tsunami disasters in 1964, 1960 and 1946. "I think it's very reasonable to imagine that had the cables been in place at the time, those tsunamis would have substantially damaged the kind of cable infrastructure now present in those locations." A major cable breakage in Hawaii would have a catastrophic effect on the Australian economy. Now that we realise these very tsunamis that can travel across entire ocean basins can occur and that they probably occur a bit more frequently than we realise, there's a serious risk here." Australia's internet capacity to the US was cut by 25 per cent in December 2007 when severe storms in Oregon took out part of a major cable.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - KIWI - Some Bay of Plenty kiwifruit growers are trying to salvage crops devastated by a FREAK HAIL STORM. The storm hit at about 5pm on Monday and growers say they may have lost millions of dollars of produce. "It was like someone getting a shot gun and just firing it into all of the (kiwifruit) canopy." The storm is more bad news for the already struggling industry The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says the freak weather strike is VERY RARE AND EXTREME. "It's a bit like having a pot on a stove, you've got heat at the bottom and cold at the top and it bubbles up and blows up these big thunder storm clouds."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BOLIVIA - One of Bolivia's most famous glaciers, once the world's highest ski run, has almost disappeared as a result of climate change. The Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft) up in the Andes, used to be the world's highest ski run. But it has been reduced to just a few small pieces of ice. Many Bolivians on the highland plains, and in two cities, depend on the melting of the glaciers for their water supply during the dry season. The team of Bolivian scientists started measuring the Chacaltaya glacier in the 1990s. Not long ago they were predicting that it would survive until 2015. But now it seems, the glacier has melted at a much faster rate than they expected. Photos taken in the last two weeks show that all that is left of the majestic glacier, which is thought to be 18,000 years old, are a few lumps of ice near the top. The World Bank warned earlier this year that many of the Andes' tropical glaciers will disappear within 20 years. This, the bank said, would both threaten the water supplies of nearly 80 million people living in the region, and jeopardise the future generation of hydropower. Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru depend on that power for about half their electricity. (photos)

The world's most important coral region is in danger of being wiped out by the end of this century unless fast action is taken, says a new report. The Coral Triangle covers 1% of the earth's surface but contains a third of all the world's coral, and three-quarters of its coral reef species. 40% of reefs in the Coral Triangle have already been lost. The area is shared between Indonesia and five other south-east Asian nations and is thought to contain 75% of the world's coral species. It is likened to the Amazon rainforest in terms of its biodiversity.
What we can expect if the world's richest coral reef is destroyed:
It's 2099, and across south-east Asia, a hundred million people are on the march, looking for food. The fish they once relied on is gone. Communities are breaking down; economies destroyed. And that could happen this century.
"Up until now we haven't realized how quickly this system is changing. In the last 40 years in the Coral Triangle, we've lost 40% of coral reefs and mangroves - and that's probably an underestimate. We've fundamentally changed the way the planet works in terms of currents and this is only with a 0.7 degree change in terms of temperature. What's going to happen when we exceed two or four or six?" "Pollution, the inappropriate use of coastal areas, these are destroying the productivity of ocean which is plummeting right now. That is the system that traps CO2 - 40% of CO2 goes into the ocean. Now if we interrupt that, the problems on planet earth become even greater."

SOMALIA faces its WORST DROUGHT FOR AT LEAST A DECADE, with nearly half the population suffering malnutrition.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Mexico denies swine flu cover-up - Fidel Castro accused Mexico of covering up the outbreak in order to avoid missing out on a visit by US President Barack Obama. Mr Castro's comments came after Cuba reported its first confirmed case of swine flu on Monday. Cuba cancelled all flights to Mexico when news of the outbreak first emerged. Mexico has confirmed the deaths of 58 people from swine flu and the spread of the virus caused a national crisis, with restrictions on public gatherings only relaxed last week. President Obama's visit to Mexico in mid-April came days before a spreading flu outbreak in the country was officially diagnosed as swine flu. "The Mexican authorities did not inform the world of [the outbreak], awaiting the visit of Obama."

CDC warns about flu risk in pregnant women - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that pregnant women are at increased risk for flu complications such as pneumonia, dehydration, and premature labor, especially with the novel H1N1 strain. The CDC is investigating 20 cases of the disease in pregnant women, a few of whom have had severe complications, and one fatality, a previously reported Texas woman.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Don't confuse us with facts; our minds are made up.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TURKEY - The second biggest concern after whether or not Istanbul will be hit by another large earthquake is the possibility of a tsunami threatening its immediate shores. A Geology Professor said Istanbul’s next big earthquake would create a tsunami based on historical findings of an excavation of Yenitepe. And because Istanbul’s coastlines are narrow, the tsunami waves are liable to cause serious damage to vehicle traffic and buildings in that corridor. "A wave one meter high may cause all the cars on the shore to drift into the sea and people to drown."
The three great holes in the Marmara Sea are all going to trigger tsunamis. "In order for a tsunami to be formed by an earthquake, there needs to be a vertical movement on the seabed. If an earthquake occurs at the lateral movement fault lines, tsunamis may not be formed. There are fault lines in the Marmara Sea that may cause vertical movement. Under normal conditions, in order to cause a tsunami, the earthquake must be at least seven on the Richter scale. There are at least three holes at the Marmara Sea bottom that exceed 1,000 meters in depth. There is soft, unconsolidated mud that has been carried from the shore at the precipitous slopes of these holes. An earthquake registering six on the scale would not cause a tsunami but underwater avalanches could occur. The mud on the slopes of those holes may move to the bottom suddenly due to the underwater avalanches and this change at the bottom may cause tsunamis. Deposits that show traces of previous tsunamis were dug at the excavations on the Marmara’s shores. There have been over 40 destructive tsunamis on the shores of Marmara. There are cases when the waves came on shore covering 2,000 to 3,000 meters with their height exceeding 6 meters. Those waves sometimes entered the Bosphorus and affected districts like Eyüp and Üsküdar alongside important valleys.
The facts that Istanbul’s topography is not straight and its shores are narrow are disadvantages when it comes to tsunamis. Even small waves may be deadly on shores approximately 150 to 200 meters wide. "In the earthquake of 1894, the sea first ebbed by 50 meters then the returning sea waves destroyed the whole Ottoman navy on shore."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Forty-four deaths had been confirmed in northern Brazil’s worst flooding in decades, fed by two months of unusually heavy rains in a zone stretching from deep in the Amazon to normally arid areas near the Atlantic coast. In spite of a gradual Sunday retreat of water in some areas the number of homeless climbed to 300,000. In the state of Amazon, crossed by the Rio Negro, water is climbing three centimetres per day and is beginning to reach the historical centre of the capital Manaos. In the state of Piauí in most towns power is down and the drinking water system has collapsed. Teresina the capital is preparing for a second major flood in less than a week. According to an official estimate, the total economic losses from the flooding - most severe since mid-1950s - would be about the equivalent of 500 million US dollars.
Meanwhile in the south of Brazil, an acute drought has hit the famed horseshoe-shaped Igauzu falls cutting back the tumbling waters to reveal the rocky sides. Only a third of the usual volume of water is now flowing over the top of the stunning falls. The falls, which are actually made up of 275 waterfalls stretching some 2.5 kilometres are taller than the Niagara Falls and twice as wide. Southern Brazil has been hit by its worst drought in 80 years. Another unique wildlife area in Brazil is suffering from the lack of rainfall: the world famous and largest lowlands of Pantanal. “We have the lowest rainfall records in 35 years.”

NEW ZEALAND - Wild weather wreaked havoc in the western Bay of Plenty and north of Auckland Monday afternoon with a mini tornado, giant hailstones, waterspouts and heavy rain causing floods and property damage. Two thousand shoppers were evacuated from the Bayfair Shopping Centre in Mt Maunganui after a manhole collapsed sending floodwater into the building. Roads were also flooded, causing severe traffic disruption. The winds that accompanied the spouts were horrendous, and the hailstorm that followed left the beach looking like it was coated in snow. The hailstones were 10 centimetres deep in places. (photos)

VERMONT - The National Weather Service has confirmed it was, in fact, a tornado that tore through Washington, Vermont Saturday night. Winds estimated at 90 to 100 miles per hour ripped down trees, destroyed a barn, and tore the roof off a six-unit apartment complex. Trees were uprooted and torn to shreds. Pieces of the apartment building's roof were wrapped around neighbors' trees. The NWS said damage from a tornado is RARELY SEEN in Vermont. "Generally when we do see them they are relatively weak, every couple years or so,. This time of year is a little more RARE. Usually we'll see them in July and August, so May is definitely not the time we usually see it." This tornado was the second earliest since records began in 1950.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
AUSTRALIA - RICE - The rice harvest has been ravaged by both drought and flooding, with the NSW Riverina expected to deliver just 5% of its normal output. About 65,000 tonnes are expected to be harvested this year in the nation's rice growing heartland - down from 1.2 MILLION tonnes in a typical year - while trial crops in northeast NSW have been destroyed by heavy rainfall. Early forecasts for a 75,000-tonne crop in the Riverina were not realised, after a heatwave in February damaged flowering. Despite the poor conditions, this year's crop is bigger than last year's, when just 19,300 tonnes were harvested - the SMALLEST CROP SINCE THE INDUSTRY BEGAN in 1928. With Riverina irrigators on their third year of zero water allocations, the industry has been seeking to develop in wetter - or better watered - areas such as northeast NSW. Global rice shortages caused PRICES TO HIT RECORD LEVELS THIS YEAR and have encouraged experimentation outside the Riverina. After several years of experimental trials, nearly 800ha of rice was planted in the coastal Northern Rivers region of NSW late last year. "The crop up there is essentially grown without irrigation, relying on natural rainfall." But that crop was hit by drought in December and January. Then, in late March and early April, "the skies opened up and most of the region up there received 500 to 600mm of rainfall in about a 15-day period. Many of the rice crops were totally inundated, with water levels going over the top of the panicles that had mature grain in them. That led to a serious sprouting problems; what is called shot and sprung grain." Late-planted crops not damaged by the rain are unlikely to produce well with the continuing wet and humid conditions.

HEALTH THREATS -
The swine flu strain that has sickened people in 30 countries rivals the severity of the 1957 “Asian flu” pandemic that killed 2 million people, scientists say. About four of 1,000 people infected with the new H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died. Swine flu has been confirmed in 4,694 people. Scientists are trying to determine whether swine flu will mutate and become more deadly as it spreads to the Southern Hemisphere and back.
The virus is more contagious than seasonal flu. Seasonal flu epidemics cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year. A “moderate” pandemic like the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year. “While substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957." A worldwide outbreak as severe as the 1918 Spanish flu might cause 180 million to 360 million deaths. Pandemics usually occur two to three times a century. The last pandemic hit in 1968, and health officials have been anticipating another since the H5N1 strain began spreading widely in birds in 2003. In seasonal flu, each person who comes in contact with someone who’s sick has a 5 percent to 15 percent probability of illness. In swine flu, the probability increases to 22 percent to 33 percent.

The US now has more confirmed swine flu cases than Mexico, with a spike in numbers since Friday bringing the total to 2,532.

China today ordered stepped up flu monitoring nationwide after confirming the mainland's first swine flu case, and said it had found and isolated nearly all those who travelled with the patient.

Monday, May 11, 2009 -

Hope begins in the dark, the stubborn hope that if you just show up and try to do the right thing,
the dawn will come. You wait and watch and work: You don't give up.
Anne Lamott

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/10/09 -
5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
5.1 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
6.1 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression CHAN-HOM was 287 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

The death toll from the typhoon that struck the Philippines last week has climbed to 36. Typhoon Chan-hom weakened into a low pressure area over the weekend after roaring across the country's mountainous north Friday. About 5,500 houses were destroyed and more than 16,700 others were damaged. Most of the deaths were caused by landslides, drowning and flying debris. About 20 typhoons and tropical storms lash the Philippines each year, usually after the rainy season starts in June, but Chan-hom came in the country's summer, an UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE. Although government disaster agencies repeatedly issued warnings about the typhoon, some people may not have fully prepared for its deadly force because it struck in summer. The typhoon struck too early, when there was still no sense of urgency for such problems. A tropical storm that hit the northeastern Philippines earlier this month left 27 dead.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
U.S. - Emergency teams on Sunday were assessing damage from deadly storms that devastated parts of Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia this weekend -- even as the threat of more severe weather continued. The storm that tore through Madison County, Kentucky, on Friday was a category EF-3 tornado. An EF-3 is the third-strongest category of tornado, with winds of 136 to 165 mph, strong enough to destroy large buildings and lift cars off the ground. At least one person was killed by that storm, with several other serious injuries. A waste water treatment plant was destroyed, two fire departments sustained major roof damage and some manufacturing facilities were damaged. Three people were killed in southern Missouri during high winds, thunderstorms and flash floods. A weekend of storming in West Virginia destroyed as many as 400 buildings and severely damaged an additional 1,000.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Over the past week doctors have learned that the H1N1 novel flu virus ("swine flu") appears to be no more severe than regular seasonal flu, and it appears to be spreading in the same manner. Even though H1N1 appears to be less of a concern than first thought, they still want you to take steps to avoid it. They recommend:
- Washing your hands often.
- Do your best to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
- Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or sleeve when coughing (don't cough into bare hands or on another person).
- Avoid close contact with sick people. (Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through the coughs or sneezes of infected people).
H1N1 novel flu symptoms are the same as symptoms from the seasonal flu. It usually starts with a fever, sometimes as high as 104, sore throat, dry cough and muscle aches. Most of these symptoms improve over three to five days, but may last as long as eight days. Vomiting and diarrhea are unusual, but can occur. True influenza is a respiratory disease. What some refer to as the flu, or stomach flu with nausea and diarrhea, is not influenza.
If the WHO pandemic threat level changes from 5 to 6 it means that the H1N1 virus has spread around the globe to the point that it has become a pandemic. It is important to remember that pandemic is a term that refers to the spread of a disease and not the severity.


CANADA - Four new cases of swine flu have been confirmed in Canada, bringing the total number of people infected with the virus nationally to 285.

U.S. - More than 2500 swine flu cases have now been confirmed in the US, with three deaths.

JAPAN intensified follow-up checks to prevent the spread of swine flu Sunday after confirming its first cases of the virus in four Japanese recently returned from a trip to North America.

Sunday, May 10, 2009 -

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/9/09 -
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5/8/09 -
5.1 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.6 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
5.3 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
5.0 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression CHAN-HOM was 405 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

VIETNAM - bracing itself for early stormy season. Localities and agencies across the country are busy taking effective measures to cope with future natural calamities and effectively deal with their consequences as the stormy season is approaching. On May 3, a low tropical pressure system grew into the storm Chan-hom - the first to occur in the East Sea this year. At the same time, another tropical storm and a low pressure system formed in the Philippine Sea, causing storm Chan-hom to change its course and gain in category status, becoming a severe storm. Luckily, it moved north and northeast and did not hit Vietnam, though it caused torrential rains as it hurtled across the central coast. According to the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Centre, due to the La Nina phenomenon, Southeast Asia is likely to face between 10 - 12 storms and 4 - 5 low pressure systems this year. Of these, about 6 storms and 3-4 low tropical pressure systems are expected to directly strike Vietnam. Worthy of note is that most of the storms will head to the central and southern coast rather than the north. In addition, it is forecast that the northern, central and southern provinces will see other erratic weather phenomena this year. In fact, the monsoon season have come earlier than usual in the southern region, causing huge losses to agricultural producers, especially to salt farmers in Ca Mau and Bac Lieu provinces. Meanwhile, early torrential rains have flooded hundreds of thousands of hectares of rice and subsidiary crops in the central region. The first heat wave of this year has roasted the north-western, central and southern regions, raising temperatures in some areas to 39-40oC. Whirlwinds and hailstorms have also struck many places across the country, causing huge damage to local people’s property.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Brazilians huddled in cow pens converted into emergency shelters Friday, as swollen rivers continue to rise and northern Brazil's worst floods in decades boosted the number of homeless to nearly 300,000. The death toll rose to 39, and coffins started popping out of the soaked earth. Local health officials acknowledged sanitary conditions were deplorable and could lead to outbreaks of disease, but those staying in the stables said they worried conditions could be worse elsewhere if they are forced to go. None thought about returning home anytime soon as UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINS continued Friday, extending two months of rainfall across 10 of Brazil's 26 states. Three times the size of Alaska, the affected area stretches from the normally wet rainforest to coastal states known for lengthy droughts. Meteorologists blame the heavy rain on an Atlantic Ocean weather system that typically moves on by April - and they forecast weeks more of the same. Rivers still were rising in the hardest-hit state of Maranhao. The surging torrents wrecked bridges and made it too dangerous for relief workers to take boats onto some waterways. Mudslides were stranding trucks, preventing them from delivering food and supplies to places cut off from civilization. "Our houses are falling down, and on my street there are houses that were completely destroyed because the river's flow was so strong." The flooding in northern Brazil is THE WORST IN 20 YEARS, and experts have warned that by June river levels, including the Amazon, could hit records not seen since 1953. (photos / map)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ALASKA - 'Tsunami' Of Ice Wreaks Havoc On Alaskan Town - Temperatures in some parts of Alaska soared into the 70s this week, causing a rapid "melt-out" of ice and snow along the Yukon River and UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING that nearly wiped out the small community of Eagle. The historic gold rush outpost sits on the upper reaches of the Yukon River on the eastern edge of Alaska, along the border with Canada. The high water eclipses anything in Eagle's recorded history, including the previous peak flood in 1937. "Nothing, nothing compared to what we have here. It's just mind-boggling to look across the river and see all this ICE AT AN ELEVATION NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN BEFORE." The Yukon rose 30 feet over its normal level when 4- to 7-foot-thick ice pans surged downstream, choking the river and bulldozing islands and shorelines. The devastation stretches for miles up and down the river, where trees have been sheared off and muddy banks scooped away like chocolate ice cream. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Orissa remained under the grip of heat wave which claimed seven more lives on Saturday taking the death toll to 120.

CALIFORNIA - fire officials say nearly a third of the wildfire that has forced 30,000 people to flee from Santa Barbara is under control. "For this time of year, this activity is UNUSUAL."

FLORIDA - Because of the lack of significant rain in recent weeks, most of South Florida now is under extreme drought conditions.
Florida is on the verge of its annual sinkhole season in late spring and early summer, and this year could see more activity because of the effects of three years of drought, geologists say. Geological experts say the entire Tampa Bay area is vulnerable to sinkhole activity. (photo / video)

An biology professor who has been studying cicadas for decades says SOMETHING SEEMS TO BE GOING WACKY with the obnoxiously loud insects' body rhythms, and he believes it's related to climate change. Cicadas are emerging on the Eastern seaboard, primarily in North Carolina, four years ahead of schedule. They usually emerge every 17 years when the ground temperature reaches about 65 degrees. No brood was expected in the U.S. this year. This is the fifth brood that has been documented waking up four years early. Cicadas count the years by the fluid flow in tree roots, and a mild December-January followed by a hard freeze and another period of warmth affects that flow.

SPACE WEATHER-
New Forecast Calls for Calmer Sun - A couple years back, scientists were predicting that the next peak in solar activity would be among the strongest in modern times. Now they say it could be the weakest since 1928. However, big Earth-threatening solar storms could still kick up at any time, the researchers cautioned. The solar cycle runs about 11 years. At the low point, which is now, sunspots and solar flares are rare for months and months. The latest forecast, from the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, sees a mild peak that should come in about May, 2013. (In 2007, they had predicted a peak for late 2011 or mid-2012.) The sun has been very, very quiet lately. This unusually long, deep lull in sunspots forced the revision, the panel stated. Some have even raised the possibility that the quiescence could lead to a Little Ice Age, as the sun pumps less energy our way. Scientists say that's very unlikely. The panel predicts Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If it proves true, Solar Cycle 24 would be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when reliable recordkeeping began. But the forecasters note that big individual storms can strike before, during or after any cycle's peak, even if it is weak. As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems. The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle." If a storm that severe occurred nowadays, it could cause up to $2 trillion in initial damages by crippling communications on Earth and fueling chaos among residents and even governments in a scenario that would require four to 10 years for recovery.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Barack Obama says the US is not "out of the woods yet" on swine flu, as Canada announces its first death from the virus.
The US reported its third death from swine flu and a man died in Costa Rica, as three more countries confirm the virus.

Underlying conditions like asthma, diabetes, heart disease or tuberculosis appear to put swine flu victims at greater risk of hospitalization or death. Health officials emphasized that the observations were preliminary and based on discussion of only about 40 deaths in Mexico and half of the 57 hospitalizations in the United States. But a few trends have begun to emerge. Some of the serious cases involve healthy young people, and the reasons for that are still unexplained. Many of the patients went into rapid decline and died of viral pneumonia, not bacterial pneumonia. Viral pneumonia may be a result of the “cytokine storm,” in which the body’s own immune reaction to a new virus floods the lungs with fluid. It can progress faster and be harder to treat than bacterial pneumonia. Most of the hospitalized Americans had an additional health problem. In seven cases it was asthma, which is worrying because asthma has become quite common in the United States. The public has “a sense of having dodged a bullet, a sense that this is over.” But flu takes months to spread. “And while we’ve seen a lot of encouraging news in terms of severity, we continue to see hundreds and hundreds of new cases each day.”

Friday, May 8, 2009 -

Never deprive someone of hope; it might be all they have.
H. Jackson Brown Jr.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/7/09 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN IRAN
There was a whole collection of small quakes all around Europe and Turkey.

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -
CALIFORNIA - 5/5/09 - Something went boom in the night Tuesday, but no one seems to know what it was. The boom seemed especially powerful along the coast, where residents reported windows, doors and houses shaking at about 10 minutes before 8 p.m. There was speculation that the sound and accompanying sensation came from a supersonic jet, officials with the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S.Geological Survey said Wednesday. Navy officials said they knew of no aircraft activity Tuesday night that might have caused the boom. Marine officials said they would research whether their aircraft might have been responsible. "The only kind of aircraft that can fly at supersonic speeds are military aircraft. Typically, when military aircraft are going that fast, they're flying in military airspace off the coast, not in civilian airspace." Similar booms were reported earlier this year. There is speculation that those booms, felt March 3 in Orange County and March 4 along the Central California coast, were sonic booms from military jets. Because Tuesday's boom was reminiscent of the sound and feel of an earthquake, people have been calling the U.S. Geological Survey, which monitors seismic activity. There was nothing to suggest an earthquake occurred.

VOLCANOES -
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - The volcanoes in the central African nation could be about to erupt, threatening Goma, which has a population of more than half a million people. Scientists found evidence of intense volcanic activity — including tremors, pools of lava and plumes of smoke — at two volcanoes near a major city in eastern Congo, and said some residents had fled for fear of an eruption. The two volcanic peaks are Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. "The eruption could be tomorrow, or the day after — or at any other time." The Nyiragongo crater is only 11 miles (18 kilometers) north of Lake Kivu, where Goma is located. 1.3 million people are threatened by the two volcanoes, including the residents of Goma, the villages surrounding it and the inhabitants of Gisenyi, located across the Rwandan border. "The villagers living near Nyiragongo have already left their villages after they saw the volcano shake today. They thought it was already erupting." Nyiragongo is listed as one of the eight most dangerous volcanoes in the world and its lava can flow at up to 24 miles (40 kilometers) per hour.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm CHAN-HOM was 275 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

Chan-hom - At least 22 people were killed and thousands displaced overnight as Typhoon Chan-hom raked the northern Philippines.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRAZIL - Southern Brazil has been hit by its WORST DROUGHT IN 80 YEARS, leading authorities to declare a state of emergency in some areas, while the usually arid northeast of the country is suffering from floods.

AUSTRALIA - Perth is on the way to breaking a NEW RECORD WITH THE WARMEST RUN OF MAY DAYS EVER. Today is likely to mark the eighth successive day of temperatures 25C plus which equals the previous record. Currently the record for days over 25C stands at 11 days recorded between May 1 and May 11 set in 1962. In addition to record-breaking warm May days, Perth is on its way to a RECORD DRY SPELL. Perth has now experienced the most late-April to May days without rain since 2000. It has been 15 days since Perth has received any rain with the last falls recorded on April 23, when just 0.2mm fell. Meanwhile, Bunbury is also experiencing RECORD BREAKING WEATHER CONDITIONS. The town has not had a single drop of rain since March 26, surpassing the 41-day autumn record dry spell set in 1950. "Whilst we have had higher than normal daytime temperatures we have had cooler than usual nights. The average to date is 9.2C while the normal minimum for this time in May is 10.8C."

CALIFORNIA - winds will continue to gust to near 60 mph through today in Santa Barbara. For the second day in a row, their high temperatures reached triple digits... 101! That TIES THEIR ALL-TIME HIGHEST TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. The heat is totally caused by the wind... Ventura, 30 miles south of Santa Barbara, warmed to only 80. Winds were fairly light in Ventura. That's an extreme example of a microclimate! As the northerly winds descend from the 4000' Santa Ynez mountains immediately north of Santa Barbara, the air is forced to compress. In physics, that's a warming action... the stronger the wind, the more intense the compression, the more dramatic the heating. Think about a bicycle pump... when you pump it, you are compressing air in the chamber, then out the tube into your tire. Feel the chamber after you've been pumping a while... it heats up! The same thing happens in the North State when the north winds blow, as the air descends from the Siskiyou mountains. The winds should subside this weekend, aiding the Southland firefighters tremendously in their efforts.
Southern California is experiencing extraordinary weather conditions. Wednesday, persistent offshore winds pushed the temperature to a RECORD-BREAKING 100 degrees in Santa Barbara. "Devil winds" also developed Wednesday evening in Los Angeles, where the mercury jumped from 78 at 5 p.m. to a balmy 89 degrees by 8.
Santa Barbara fire signals 'horrific' season ahead - officials warned of another bad fire year as California struggles through its fourth year of drought. The springtime wildfire that threatened thousands of homes in Santa Barbara may be unseasonal - but has become the norm. "Every year now is a horrific fire season. It's definitely scary. You can see how early the fires started. Climate change is definitely a factor here. We're living in a warmer, drier California, a more crowded California and the costs of fighting fires is going up - and it's year-round." 20 percent of residents now live within fire-prone areas, with the remaining 80 percent shouldering firefighting costs that last year exceeded $1 billion.

Climate change is likely to raise more than just the world's temperature - changing conditions in the Western U.S. leading to more and more severe wildfires will raise insurance rates too. A spate of California wildfires has led officials to declare that the state's fire season now lasts all 365 days of the year. Although it is too early to know how this extended fire season will affect homeowner and property insurance, it is likely that in the future insurance premiums - in California and other arid Western states - are going to become more costly, and policies more difficult to come by. A 2006 study found that since 1986, the number of major wildfires has increased by 400 percent, and the amount of land these fires burned increased by 600 percent, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986. The change has come about mainly because summers have gotten longer, hotter and drier. "The transition has been marked by a shift toward unusually warm springs, longer summer dry seasons, drier vegetation and longer fire seasons." Insurance companies recognized early on - as early as the mid-1970s, in some cases - the dangers posed by climate change. Their concern has grown more acute in recent years.

Thursday, May 7, 2009 -

I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket
and trying to lift himself up by the handle.
Winston Churchill

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/6/09 -
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Get ready for another possible eruption from Redoubt within the next few days as activity at Mount Redoubt is again increasing. Late Tuesday, seismic activity at Mount Redoubt intensified from discrete, repeating events to continuous tremor.

HAWAII - The vog (volcanic smog) covering the islands is the WORST IT HAS BEEN IN YEARS, American Lung Association officials said. A combination of light winds out of the south and the eruptions at Kilauea Volcano created the situation.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon CHAN-HOM was 109 nmi WNW of Subic Bay, Philippines
Tropical storm KUJIRA was 607 nmi SSE of Tokyo, Japan.

PHILIPPINES - The government on Wednesday beefed up precautionary measures against the possible onslaught of tropical storm "Emong" (Chan-Hom), which was expected to enter the Philippine territory this morning. Tropical storm Emong will likely hit northern Luzon, Central Luzon, and the National Capital Region. It is expected to bring heavy rains that might trigger landslides and flashfloods.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Thousands of people are told to leave their homes near Santa Barbara as a wildfire prompts a state of emergency. The rapidly moving blaze has burned more than 500 acres. TV pictures show flames destroying several large hillside properties in the exclusive region. At least 20 structures have been destroyed and some 2,000 homes are threatened. The blaze has been fanned by RECORD TEMPERATURES and strong winds of up to 50mph (80km/h). "We are having very extreme weather." Weather forecasters are warning of more strong winds and it may take several days to bring the blaze under control.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The number of confirmed US swine flu cases surged by 60 per cent today to 642 from 403, with infections reported in three more states and the death toll now at two. Forty-one US states are now reporting confirmed cases of (A)H1N1 flu, and the US death toll has gone up, with the first US citizen reported to have died from swine flu. The acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said he expected the virus to continue spreading in the United States and around the world, and fully expected the outbreak to become a pandemic. "With the number of cases in other countries, I would be suprised if we don't get to level six" on the World Health Organization's six-phase pandemic alert scale. Poland and Sweden reported their first confirmed cases and other countries in Europe extended their tally of (A)H1N1 cases.

The number of influenza cases worldwide is 1893, in 24 countries. In two weeks, swine flu jumped from isolated reports in the U.S. and Mexico to a widening circle of infections in Central America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and New Zealand and prompted quarantines to limit the outbreak. Hong Kong, which confirmed its first case of swine flu on May 1, and China, are today releasing some people who were isolated after they were found to be on the same flight as the patient. The World Health Organization, on the brink of declaring a pandemic, said a panel will meet May 14 to decide whether vaccine makers should begin producing hundreds of millions of doses of a separate swine flu shot. The virus, with symptoms similar to seasonal flu, is a new strain that’s dashing across a world population with little natural immunity.
Swine flu may affect at least one-third of the world’s 6 billion population within the next year. “Even if the illnesses appear relatively mild at the individual level, the global population level adds up to enormous numbers." Disease trackers are monitoring 81 cases in Spain and 27 in the U.K. to determine whether the virus formally called H1N1 has established itself outside North America. Such a finding would prompt the WHO to declare a pandemic, the first since 1968. “I wish I could predict what we’re going to see in the fall, because that would make it very easy to make the kinds of decisions we’re going to need to make as a nation over the next couple of months." WHO determined that a swine flu shot would have to be made in separate plants from the seasonal flu version. The swine flu vaccine may also require a follow-up booster shot to be effective because it is an entirely new strain.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009 -

When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won.
There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible but in the end, they always fall
- think of it, ALWAYS.
“Mahatma” Gandhi

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/5/09 -
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 MONGOLIA-CHINA BORDER REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm CHAN-HOM was 353 nmi ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam and 366 nmi W of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Typhoon KUJIRA was 507 nmi NW of Saipan, N. Mariana Islands.

Typhoon Kujira kills 27 - The death toll from the typhoon that lashed the Philippines rose to 27, with more than 54,000 people left homeless. The Government warned of a new storm gathering in the South China Sea.

PHILIPPINES - The typhoon season usually starts in June although two tropical cyclones have already battered the country for almost a week and another tropical storm is on the way.

MALAYSIA - After hitting Vietnamese waters yesterday, the Chan-Hom tropical storm lashed Labuan in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, damaging 16 wooden houses on the island. The roofs of the 16 houses in Bebuloh Laut village were blown away, prompting hundreds of villagers to flee their homes. However no one was injured. The Meteorological Department has issued a category two warning on strong winds and waves brought by the tropical storm occurring over the waters of Labuan until Thursday. This condition is dangerous to shipping activities, workers on oil platforms, fishing and ferry services as well coastal activities. The strong winds and rough seas started on Sunday afternoon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - For weeks, heavy rain has been causing extensive problems across the north-east of Brazil, a region more often associated with the difficulties caused by drought. About 180,000 people across eight states are reported to have had to leave their homes. A number of important roads in the region are impassable. At least 15 people have been killed. More than 190 towns and cities have been badly affected by the floods. Such is the size of Brazil that in the south of country the problem is exactly the opposite - 95 towns and cities are now reported to be facing a crisis because of a lack of rain.

ALASKA - they had fantastic weather this past week, but some in Interior Alaska are now paying dearly for the warmth. The photographs and reports of the Yukon River flooding in Eagle are shocking. For those who have never visited the town, it’s obvious that the flooding is UNUSUAL. For those familiar with Eagle’s setting on a high bank above a breakwater, the pictures of river ice building up to roof levels are almost unbelievable. This could be a devastating blow for the picturesque little town. Communities downstream may face the same fate. The town of Eagle has never seen such a disaster. Some flooding was to be expected this spring, of course. The warm weather, on top of a cooler-than-normal early April, turned millions of acres of above-average snowpack to liquid within a few days. The National Weather Service warned that this could be a bad year for flooding if the weather played out in this fashion. All the water might have fit through the Yukon River canyon, if it hadn’t been mixed with thousands upon thousands of acres of still-firm river ice. That ice jammed in the bends somewhere below Eagle and held, despite an unfathomable head of pressure behind it. There are about 160 river miles between Eagle and Circle, the next village downriver. For most of that distance, the river flows through a relatively narrow channel. The canyon has few people living in it these days, but those that do are likely to be facing some real challenges. Just upstream of Circle, the Yukon valley opens into the flats, so any floodwaters exiting the canyon would have some room to spread before they reach the village. However, Circle and other towns downstream, such as Fort Yukon, Beaver and Stevens Village, all sit on low-lying land. They also could be flooded badly if the channel jams again. The next few days could bring real trouble on the rivers.
"The old village of Eagle [70 people] is totally destroyed. Some buildings have water up to the second story." As for the larger town of Eagle three miles away? "There are estimates that the water right now is 10 FEET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD." Combine a long winter of heavy snowfall, thick river ice and RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES in the eastern Interior last week, and you have perfect conditions for ice jams that can act as dams to flood riverside communities. Villages along both the Yukon and Kuskokwim saw rivers spill across city streets over the weekend. (map / photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
PAKISTAN - An avalanche has killed up to 24 people believed to have been looking for herbs on a mountain in northern Pakistan. The accident happened on Monday in the Neelum valley, north of Muzaffarabad town, capital of the Pakistani part of the divided Kashmir region. The area is near the epicentre of a big earthquake that struck in October 2005, killing 73,000 people in northern Pakistan and several thousand in nearby Indian Kashmir.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

FLORIDA - Low rainfall, rising temperatures and low humidity have created a "severe drought" in most of Central Florida. In its latest drought outlook, the National Weather Service notes that since January 2008, Fort Lauderdale is a whooping 21 inches below normal.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009 -

To travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive.
Robert Louis Stevenson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/4/09 -
5.4 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN KERGUELEN PLATEAU
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.4 MIRANDA, VENEZUELA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Seismic activity at Mount Redoubt increased over 24 hours on Sunday and a steam and ash plume rising above the volcano increased in size dramatically in the 9 o'clock hour Sunday night. The activity "appears to be gaining intensity. Seismic activity has increased markedly in the last 24 hours, showing stronger volcanic tremor and more frequent rockfall events." Late Sunday night scientists said that an explosive eruption is now more likely in the next few days than it has been in the last few weeks. The alert level remains at orange. Redoubt has not had an explosive eruption since April 4 when the volcano created an ash fall along the Kenai Peninsula. An eruption on March 28 forced the closure of Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport for about 20 hours. The first series of explosive events began March 22 when Redoubt ended months of anticipation with six powerful blasts. (photos)

INDONESIA - Besides Mt Baru Jari, several volcanoes in Indonesia have shown an increase in activities recently. Mt Slamet in Central Java sprayed thick ash last week, covering the nearby regencies of Tegal and Purbalingga. On April 24, Mt Anak Krakatau, located in the Sunda Strait, also showed increasing activity, with 237 small eruptions. This started on April 15, with 156 small explosion and 25 volcanic quakes. Earlier last month, Mt Kerinci, the highest mountain in Sumatra, also sprayed ash, covering areas in the Kerinci regency of Jambi province. Small eruptions continued throughout the month. In March, Mt Semeru, which, at 3.676 meters above sea level is the highest volcano in Java, also showed increased activity with several small explosions and tremors. Residents in regencies around the mountain, including Lumajang and Malang in East Java, were told to be on alert.
Dukono, a volcano on the Indonesian island of Halmahera, released a plume of ash and steam on May 3. The plume continued a pattern of intermittent activity in an ongoing eruption. Dukono is a complex volcano with multiple summit peaks and overlapping craters. The volcano’s remote location makes reports of its activity rare, but it ranks among Indonesia’s most active volcanoes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm CHAN-HOM was 316 nmi E of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.
Cyclone KUJIRA was 598 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

PHILIPPINES - residents might have to brace for a tropical storm that will enter Philippine territory this week on Wednesday or Thursday. It may make landfall on Saturday. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the cyclone will be named “Emong" once it enters the country. The coming cyclone, which is considered a tropical storm [Chan-Hom] , packs winds of 64 to 117 kph.
Tropical Storm Kujira will move away from the Philippines as it treks northeastward into the Pacific. Showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Philippines.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Severe flooding has hit Brazil's perennially drought-stricken northeast, killing 15 people and leaving 70,000 others homeless.

COLUMBIA - Hundreds of houses in the south, north and north west of Colombia this weekend were destroyed by rains, floods and extremely heavy winds. Hardest hit was the south-eastern department of Nariño, where 117 houses were destroyed when heavy winds blew off roofs of the mainly poorly constructed buildings. Reports of sudden strong winds that destroyed houses came from the north-eastern department of Antioquia. Heavy rainfall in the northern city of Barranquilla caused floods in 21 of the city's neighborhoods. In the Tolima department, one person died and dozens of houses were damaged when a heavy storm hit the south of the department. This year's rainy season, traditionally accompanied by heavy downpours and sudden storms, has already killed dozens of Colombians and is expected to last until the second half of May.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

WHO officials estimate there are 1003 cases of swine flu spread through 20 countries, but are not planning to raise the alert level yet.

Flu maps.

Flu virus's likely human-to-swine jump triggers concern - Humans occasionally pick up influenza viruses from pigs. Reports of human-to-pig transmission are apparently RARE, but such cases are assumed to happen. The tentative detection of the novel swine influenza H1N1 virus in an Alberta swine herd over the weekend shook Canada's pork industry and raised concern about the potential for new hybrid viruses to emerge. Canadian authorities said on May 2 that preliminary testing detected the virus in an Alberta herd and that it probably came from a Canadian carpenter who works on the farm and had a flu-like illness when he returned from a visit to Mexico in mid-April. The worker had contact with the pigs on Apr 14 and about 220 pigs in the herd of 2,200 began showing signs of sickness on Apr 24. The carpenter has recovered and the pigs were recovering. Pigs are often infected with flu viruses, including strains from humans and birds. They are described as a mixing vessel where different viruses can trade genes (reassort) and produce new variants. The novel H1N1 virus itself has been said to contain genetic material from swine, avian, and human flu viruses. The virus isolated from the swine does not appear to differ from the virus spreading among humans. "There is no sign that it has changed at all. But this could of course happen like with any other flu viruses." Despite repeated official assurances that proper cooking destroys any flu viruses in pork, ten countries have banned Canadian pork products since the Alberta finding. The USDA said it is "actively working to develop an H1N1 vaccine for swine, just as the CDC is doing for humans."

Monday, May 4, 2009 -

The secret to getting the most fun out of life is to live dangerously.
Friedrich Nietzsche

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/3/09 -
5.6 GUATEMALA
5.0 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Volcanologists at Mount RINJANI in Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara Province closed the mountain as eruptions intensified since Monday (April 27). On Sunday, repeated explosion were heard since 5.50 AM local time, but activities have been escalating since Saturday (May 2) afternoon. The Mining and Energy office of West Nusa Tenggara Province reported a crater began to form at the eastern slope of the mountain. The eruptions had not caused terrible impacts “but a small crater began to form” in the eastern part of the mountainous area at Mount Baru Jari. On Saturday (May 2) volcanic ash and smoke eruption have reached to about 8.000 meters. The eruption is the latest major one recorded in five years. The last huge eruption was in 1994.
INDONESIA - Mount BARUJARI, a volcano in the middle of the crater lake of Mount Rinjani on Lombok Island, continued to emit volcanic ash and smoke on Sunday. But the eruptions were relatively smaller than those on Saturday. “The eruptions are almost like firecrackers, but the volcano is safe." The volcano, sprayed hot ashes into the Segara Anak, the crater lake contained within Mount Rinjani. The lava did not pose a danger to people because it was quite far from the nearest village in Senaru, Bayan subdistrict, in North Lombok. The volcano last erupted in September 2004.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Ancient tsunami 'hit New York' - Sedimentary deposits from more than 20 cores in New York and New Jersey indicate that some sort of violent force swept the Northeast coastal region in 300BC. It may have been a large storm, but evidence is increasingly pointing to a rare Atlantic Ocean tsunami. The origin of such a tsunami is under debate. An undersea landslide is the most likely source, but one research group has proposed that an asteroid impact provided the trigger. Today, a wave of the proposed size would leave Wall Street and the Long Island Expressway awash with salt water.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm CHAN-HOM was 330 nmi E of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.
Tropical storm KUJIRA was 361 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.

The death toll from tropical storm “Dante" (Kujira) has risen to 21 while three remain missing in the Philippines.
While tropical storm "Dante" moved away from Philippine territory Monday, state weather forecasters warned of a new possible weather disturbance. The tropical cyclone may reach Philippine territory as early as Wednesday. The cyclone, should it enter Philippine territory, will be named "Emong."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
OREGON - Severe thunderstorm storm with gusts up to 50 mph hit Portland area, one killed - A short but severe thunderstorm Saturday afternoon killed one person, cut power to about 30,000 people, capsized two sailboats, clogged traffic and knocked over trees across the Portland area. One person died when a tree or large branch fell on a car. A cold front moved into the region from the southwest. Unstable weather is common this time of year, but storms of this magnitude are RARE. On Friday, forecasters saw the potential for thunderstorms Saturday, but the severity wasn't apparent until the storms hit.

LOUISIANA - nonstop wind - the wind has been blowing at RECORD levels, for RECORD lengths of time, never pausing as it winds around the dial. What happened to normal spring weather patterns that provide a few days of relative calm between fronts? February (11.2 miles per hour), March ( 11.3) and April (10.8) have the highest average daily wind speeds, making them the windiest months of the year in these parts. But this spring has been especially windy due to some UNUSUAL -- not unheard of -- weather patterns. This spring has been UNUSUAL, not just because of the number of fronts but also because many of them have stayed to their north. So while they have had blue skies, they also had stiff southeast and easterly winds.
In April, twenty of its 30 days had average wind speed far above the average of 10.3 miles per hour -- including several days over 20 miles per hour. Spring normally is a windy time because as days get longer, the sun begins to warm the air in the first few thousand feet closest to the land. As that warmer air rises, it runs into the layers of air above it that remain winter cold. "When you have such a big temperature gradient from the surface to the top, you get a lot of vertical mixing, which creates very unstable conditions. That's why this neck of the woods gets a lot of violent weather this time of the year." That continues until the Jet Stream, which dips south in the winter, begins its summer seasonal movement northward. This allows the upper atmosphere to begin warming, creating more stable air through the summer months. That's one reason June (7.9 miles per hour), July (7.0), and August (6.9) have the lowest average wind speeds of the year. Their fall weather tends to be very placid because while the surface temperatures begin to cool with shortened periods of daylight, the upper atmosphere already is cooler. "You don't have that severe temperature gradient between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere in the fall that you have in the spring." But this spring has come in more like a Tyrannosaurus Rex. "It's all about those pressure lines on the weather maps." The lines mark changes in atmospheric pressure as weather systems move across the globe. If you look at them like the elevation lines on a topographical map, you can get a quick picture of wind conditions across the landscape. When the lines are close together on a topo map, you know the elevation rise/fall is very steep. The same is true with isobars on a weather map. "And just like water, wind runs downhill -- from a high point to the low point, or in this case, from high pressure toward low pressure." So when you see a lot of lines in a short space on the weather map, that indicates a steep variation in pressure, which means air will be moving more rapidly over the short space. The most violent movement occurs when high pressure approaches low pressure. Think of that as a very tall cliff approaching a flat plain. If you roll a bowling ball off the top of that cliff, it will fall a long way, picking up a great rate of speed by the time it hits that plain. That's why a hurricane is considered more dangerous the lower the pressure drops at its center. As it moves across the Gulf, air is falling toward that deep hole. The deeper the hole, the higher the wind speeds. In a typical delta spring, late cold fronts (low pressure) moving south react with the high pressure of the so-called Bermuda Ridge, stationed to their east. So they get a lot of wind during the approach and often a lot of rain.

Sunday, May 3, 2009 -

“If a book be false in its facts, disprove them; if false in its reasoning, refute it.
But for God’s sake, let us freely hear both sides if we choose.”
Thomas Jefferson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/2/09 -
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
5.5 ALASKA PENINSULA
5/1/09 -
5.3 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS

AUSTRALIA - A spate of earth tremors in Gippsland since a quake shook the area in March may be the earth righting itself, a seismologist says. A magnitude 2.3 earthquake was felt in and around the south Gippsland town of Korumburra about 4.30pm Friday. It followed a series of minor tremors measuring between 1.8 and 2.3 over the past two weeks, while a 4.6 magnitude quake with its epicentre also in Korumburra was felt as far away as Bacchus March, 50km west of Melbourne, on March 18. Another 4.6 tremor occurred in the same area just a week earlier on March 6. One possibility was that the smaller shocks were a result of the earth trying to move back into equilibrium after the larger shocks caused rupturing. ``Everything is out of kilter, it may be trying to come into its normal position." The recent pattern could indicate another minor tremor was on the way. ``If you just look at the pattern of that there is a possibility that you'll have another small quake.''

SAUDI ARABIA - Three villages in the northwest of Madina were reportedly rattled by tremors over Thursday night until dawn on Friday. Al-Qarrassah, Hadmah and Al-Ameed residents said they heard sounds similar to thunder followed by tremors beneath their feet. “I heard this loud noise, which kept occurring through the night, and then the whole house started shaking." The tremor reports were to be investigated on Saturday during a meeting with the Saudi Geological Survey and Seismic Studies Center.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 01W was 214 nmi E of Manila, Philippines.

Tropical cyclone "Dante" has intensified into a storm as it continued to threaten Bicol, Philiipines. Sunday, it packed maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph and is moving north-northeast slowly. On Monday morning, it is expected to be 190 kms northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte. On Tuesday morning it is expected to be 370 kms east-northeast of Baler, Aurora. By Wednesday morning it is forecast to be 530 kms east-northeast of Baler, Aurora or 480 kms east of Tuguegarao City.
The death toll from tropical storm "Dante" rose to 10 and may still increase as at least 15 others were reported missing as of Saturday night after landslides hit Hubo in Magallanes, Sorsogon. At least 2,582 families or 13,244 people had been displaced due to floods and landslides. These included 500 families (2,500 people) from Southern Luzon and 2,082 families (10,744 people) from Bicol.

Tropical storm kills 11 in Bagladesh - At least 11 people were killed and scores injured in Bangladesh as the season's first northwester swept many parts of the country Saturday. Most of the casualties were caused by the collapse of their thatched houses, and lightning. The storm damaged crops on a vast tract of land in the north and central part of the country. Five people died in villages of centre-northern Jamalpur district while four died in Mymenshingh and two in eastern Comilla districts.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - Post-winter rainfall hits RECORD LOW, dry summer ahead - Post-winter rainfall has eluded most part of the country so far this year, portending acute water scarcity in the current summer. As many as 27 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions have received deficient or no rainfall since March 1. Water storage in a large number of reservoirs has dropped to precariously low levels, jeopardising prospects of hydro-electric power production and creating a water shortage for irrigation and drinking. Nearly 20 of the country’s 81 major water reservoirs have reported practically no utilisable live storage. The total water stock in these 81 reservoirs had plummeted by April 23 to 30.62 billion cubic metres (BCM), which is only about 20 per cent of their combined live water storage capacity. The total rainfall in the whole country between March 1 and April 23 was only 35 mm, about 41 per cent below the long period average (normal) of 59 mm for this period.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

MEXICO says its H1N1 swine flu outbreak appears to be "in a stabilisation phase", with the death toll unchanged at 16, but health officials around the world are still on alert. The swine flu epidemic in Mexico is "not so aggressive" as initially feared, the Government said as it gave a new confirmed toll of 328 people infected based on lab tests.

The swine flu outbreak may have originated in California.

The swine flu virus has likely infected more than 1000 people in New York city but all have either been cured or are improving, city health authorities said

A swine herd in the Canadian province of Alberta have tested positive for H1N1 swine flu virus.

Prices of food and water have rocketed in Mexico, fuelled by a "black market" around the swine flu virus outbreak. Masks that before the panic cost one peso (£0.05) are now being sold for up to 50 pesos (£2.40) in some districts of Mexico City. "A can of tuna which was worth 13 pesos is now being sold for 20. They [the shops] also hide the soap or won't sell it to you unless you buy more stuff. They are abusive." The government says it has increased inspections of pharmacies after reported hikes in the price of the antiviral medicines recommended against the swine flu. With the inspections, the price of the antiviral Tamiflu has remained stable. But it tends to run scarce in many pharmacies, as it does not require a medical prescription to be sold. Many Mexicans are building up stocks of the medicine in case a member of their family is affected by the virus. Politicians campaigning for parliamentary elections in July are now distributing masks among potential voters in several parts of the country. A criminal gang also took advantage of the situation this week, when three men robbed a shopping mall in Mexico City wearing masks that gave them the perfect cover.

'Draconian' powers to contain swine flu - The SARS and bird flu scares of recent years have led many countries to develop pandemic action plans which involve sweeping powers aimed at containing the spread of disease among their populations. Regional governments can invoke "draconian" powers if the swine flu virus reaches a worst-case scenario, from monitoring people in their own homes to seizing control of entire economies. In Hong Kong the first confirmed case of swine flu in Asia was recorded Friday after a Mexican man who arrived via Shanghai tested positive. Authorities moved quickly to quarantine for seven days more than 300 guests and staff at the Metropark Hotel, where the patient had briefly stayed. China has made similar moves in tracking down passengers who were on the same flight to Shanghai as the Mexican national. Before discovering the first case, Hong Kong had signalled its preparedness to close down all schools and converted a holiday camp into a quarantine centre where possible sufferers will be sent in a bid to contain any mass outbreak. Meanwhile Australia has also approved the isolation of suspected sufferers against their will. Australia's pandemic action plan allows for "extraordinary measures" including the power to manage the supply of goods and services, giving it effective control over the economy. In Singapore, health authorities can install an electronic camera in the home of someone under quarantine and order them at random intervals to show their presence. Two common goals of the powers available to governments are isolating those believed to have the virus and preventing the congregation of large crowds which could help it to spread.

Many public health experts expect the swine flu virus to retreat during the summer, when temperatures and humidity work against the microbe, since it spreads best under conditions of low humidity. "Of course if it doesn't. That's really bad news." These kinds of "herald waves" preceded past pandemics, and flu monitoring systems combined with the UNUSUAL timing for an outbreak may have allowed public health experts to detect the novel flu strain's existence before its expected retreat this summer. "We might be seeing the herald wave for the fall epidemic." It's "good news" that the genes of all the swine flu virus samples thus far analyzed are "99 percent to 100 percent identical." "It will be somewhat easier to produce an influenza vaccine, because the viruses that are spreading are so similar to each other...We'll be looking at what we call the evolution, the molecular evolution, of the viruses." They'll look for possible increased resistance to antiviral drugs — to which the swine flu does now respond. They'll also be looking for signs of increased virulence. The agility of the influenza virus to constantly mutate works both ways - it could also evolve into a more harmless form. "This could fizzle out and turn out to not be a very major event, or it could be a herald wave of some major public health problem."

Friday, May 1, 2009 -

One doesn't have a sense of humor. It has you.
Larry Gelbart

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
4/30/09 -
5.5 SOUTHEASTERN IRAN
5.0 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
5.2 FLORES SEA

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

PHILIPPINES - The rainy season has begun, the weather bureau said yesterday, as it announced that the country is expected to have six tropical cyclones in May until July. "This is excluding the low pressure area spotted in the West of Luzon in Mindoro that has developed into tropical depression Crising. This will bring rainfall in Metro Manila, Central and Southern Luzon and the Visayas for two to three days." In its 5 p.m. weather bulletin yesterday, PAGASA said Crising, spotted 320 kilometers east of Mindoro, has maintained its strength and was almost stationary. Heavy rains are expected as storm signal 1 has been raised in Palawan and Occidental Mindoro, while another low pressure area has been spotted 70 kilometers southeast of Legaspi City in the Bicol region. "The other low pressure area is expected to bring rainfall in Eastern and Central Visayas." Local government units should prepare for flash floods in the coming months until July since based on official forecast, a tropical storm is expected this month, two in June and three in July. The summer months are from March to May, but climatologists have noted the likelihood of WEATHER ABERRATIONS due to climate change.

Cyclonic Clouds over the South Atlantic Ocean - It took the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on NASA’s Terra satellite a full five minutes to fly over this expansive cloud pattern on April 29. The sprawling “S”-shaped swirl is actually two cyclones that seem to be feeding on each other. Polar cyclones often form as a result of low-pressure systems over the ocean, and usually bring winds and heavy snow. MODIS acquired this photo-like image over the cold waters of the South Atlantic Ocean, where winter is approaching.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRUNEI - Be vigilant and prepared for unexpected dry weather conditions from June to September, the Minister of Development told a meeting of Asean environment ministers. He said that the south-Asean region is not spared from uncertain weather patterns. "We have no choice but to face the eventuality of UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA," he said during the Seventh Meeting of the Sub-Regional Ministerial Steering Committee on Transboundary Haze Pollution. The minister mentioned the La Nina phenomena where it was anticipated that Brunei would not be badly affected by the wet weather in December 2008 to February 2009. "Unexpectedly, Brunei and countries in Northern Borneo experienced UNUSUAL and prolonged very wet weather," adding that the wet weather conditions had resulted in flash floods and landslides. Four Asean environment ministers from Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and one Indonesian representative yesterday met to discuss precautionary measures in anticipation of escalating hotspot activities during dry periods. The Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre reported that occasional showers interspersed with short dry spells can be expected in May 2009, with brief surges in hotspots activities during dry periods. It was stated that the traditional dry season in the southern part of Asean region is likely to start around June and last until September 2009, where slightly below normal to slightly above normal rainfall is expected. The ministers agreed that member countries will share data on PM10 (particulate matter of less than 10 micron) to monitor the impact of transboundary haze in the region, in addition to reporting on the number of hotspots and weather outlook.

SWEDEN - With only a few days left in April, southern Sweden has seen warm and dry weather so far. Forecasts say the warmth will continue, possibly breaking heat records for the month. Sweden's second largest city, Gothenburg, is seeing near record breaking heat and drought this year. In the southeast of Sweden, some weather stations have not reported any rain for the whole month.

INDIA - The mercury crossed the 47 degree Celsius mark at Nagpur in the Vidarbha region, prompting some international weather models to scale up the expected highs by another notch as early as today. This, even as some others signalled that the 50 degree Celsius mark may be reached in the interior parts of the region bordering Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh during the period up to May 4. The heat wave is being triggered by the hot air steered by the seasonal anti-cyclone (high-pressure area with sinking and compressed air) extending from North Africa and West Asia through Pakistan. Heating has already reached ALL-TIME HIGHS AT MANY PLACES led by Nagpur; in Bhopal, the all-time high has been equalled. In Delhi, the 43.5 degree Celsius recorded on Thursday was the HIGHEST IN 50 YEARS. There is no let up indicated either with India Meteorological Department warning that the heat wave will continue to take a stranglehold of the entire North, Northwest, Central and adjoining East-Central India.

HEALTH THREATS -
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SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS - The tally of nations with confirmed swine flu is 14. Countries reporting their first swine flu - Denmark, China, Hong Kong, Australia.

The swine flu epidemic in Mexico is "not so aggressive" as initially feared, the Government said as it gave a new confirmed toll of 15 dead and 328 people infected, based on lab tests. The WHO says it will now call the virus influenza A (H1N1) rather than swine flu - which it says is misleading as pork meat is safe and the virus is being transmitted from human to human.

Southern Hemisphere flu alert - The World Health Organisation says the world has to look out for outbreaks of the swine flu virus in the southern hemisphere, as the region heads into the winter months.

WHO says existing vaccine little use against new flu - "We have no doubt making a successful vaccine is possible," - it would still take between four and six months for the first doses to be available. Samples needed to make a vaccine will be ready to send to manufacturers by mid to late May.

H1N1 - Health experts fear swine flu could be especially dangerous for the old and infirm, especially those with immune-system suppressing diseases such as HIV/AIDS. Its spread to poor countries that lack medical staff, drug stockpiles, and diagnostic tests -- and where tropical and other diseases are also prevalent -- is another serious concern. If it spread to Egypt or Indonesia, where H5N1 bird flu is endemic, it might combine with that virus. "It could turn into a very powerful H5N1 that is very transmissible among people. Then we will be in trouble, it will be a tragedy."

The many questions still unanswered about the H1N1 virus and it's potential.