JULY AND AUGUST 2009

Sorry, no update Thursday, August 6.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
I have seen the future and it is very much like the present - only longer.
Kehlog Albran

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA

NAMIBIA - An earthquake measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale shook the Erongo Region at 09h15 on Friday, with tremors felt as far afield as Windhoek. It was the STRONGEST RECORDED EARTHQUAKE IN NAMIBIAN HISTORY. "This means that an event of this magnitude is above the threshold size 5 expected in Namibia. We can say that an earthquake of magnitude 6 can happen in the region." On Friday morning a deep rumbling shook the town of Swakopmund and members of the public called The Namibian's coastal office to enquire whether there had been an explosion at the town.

Lightning-Fast Earthquake Could Hit Southern California - Just when Southern Californians have begun to pat themselves on the backs for having the world's stiffest earthquake building codes, there now comes news of "supershears." These are a type of earthquake known for the incredibly high velocities by which they travel. One "slipped at such blistering speeds that the rip in the Earth overtook its own seismic waves. This created the earthquake equivalent of a sonic boom, capable of striking anything in its path like a hammer blow." Evidence shows that this little-understood phenomenon occurs more often than previously suspected and that a "superhighway" of supershear faults grids the planet where 60 million people live. Although a brief moment during a 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake seemed to fit the description of a supershear, such quakes had long been relegated to the realm of theory -- until Turkey's 1999 Izmit quake. That 7.6 earthquake was measured as spreading five kilometers per second. (Five kilometers is about 3.1 miles. The speed of sound is 343 meters per second.) Some geologists now believe the 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have been a supershear. More ominously, not only is California's San Andreas Fault part of the supershear superhighway, but even the state's well-fortified buildings may be no match for the "mach fronts" generated by supershears. Less-rigorously built structures five kilometers outside of L.A. would be especially at risk.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm ENRIQUE was 714 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico - weakening.
Hurricane FELICIA was 1186 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico - continuing to rapidly intensify.
Tropical depression GONI was 106 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.
Tropical storm MORAKOT was 322 nmi SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest in June was four times more devastating than the month before, further depleting what is seen as one of the biggest buffers against global warming.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

MEXICO'S swine flu caseload rose by almost 1000 in five days, taking the total soaring above 17,000. Most infections were recorded in the country's poor southeast. "As of yesterday (Monday) evening the number of confirmed cases of A(H1N1) in the country was 17,416, of which 146 have died." Most of the new infections happened in July. No new deaths were reported but the updated figure was a rise of 974 cases since the last ministry update five days ago. It was unclear where all the new cases had taken place but the southeastern state of Chiapas has been struggling to contain a sharp rise in recorded cases in recent weeks.

Russia's chief health officer urged Russians not to travel to Wales for a World Cup soccer match on Sep 9 because of Britain's novel H1N1 flu epidemic. He blamed Britain for most of Russia's H1N1 cases and called travel there "absolutely inappropriate." He suggested that Britain is covering up virus spread. Yet Wales is the least affected part of the country, with 89 confirmed cases and no deaths.

Residents of a remote farming town in western China say people have been seeking to flee in defiance of a lockdown by authorities to prevent the spread of highly infectious pneumonic plague which has claimed three lives in the area. Police have set up checkpoints around Ziketan in Qinghai province, a town of 10,000 people, which has been put under quarantine after at least a dozen people caught the lung infection that can kill within 24 hours if untreated. It was unclear if the people who headed out of the town made it past the police checkpoints. Worldwide, thousands of plague cases are reported each year, mostly in Africa. Between 1998 and 2008, nearly 24,000 cases were reported, including about 2,000 deaths, in Africa, Asia, the Americas and eastern Europe. China has also had cases before. Most cases in China's northwest occur when hunters are contaminated while skinning infected animals.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
“Let men decide firmly what they will not do, and they will be free to do vigorously what they ought to do.”
Mencius

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/3/09 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.8 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.4 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.1 MAUG ISLANDS REG, N. MARIANA IS.
5.2 GUAM REGION
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MEXICO's Gulf of California has been hit by a 6.9-magnitude earthquake and at least three smaller tremors. There have been no reports of injuries or damage. There was a risk of a small, localised tsunami in the area, officials and experts warned, but no threat to America's Pacific coast. The tremors were all centred under the bed of the Gulf of California, a narrow strip of sea between Baja California peninsula and the Mexican mainland. The mountains and deserts of the peninsula are sparsely populated, minimising the risk of widespread damage or injuries. "The earth was turning around really ugly. People got really scared." (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 08E was 984 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm ENRIQUE was 618 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical depression LANA was 504 nmi SW of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm GONI was 125 nmi SSW of Hong Kong and 410 nmi NE of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm MORAKOT was 536 nmi ESE of Kadena AB, Okinawa and 658 nmi SSE of Kagoshima, Japan

Goni - As Hong Kong suffered under a heat wave, with temperatures as high as 36 degrees Celsius in some areas, the city braced for the arrival of Tropical Storm Goni which is bringing strong winds and heavy rain. The Standby Signal No 1 has been raised. At 11pm Monday, Goni was moving north at about 12km an hour towards the coast of Guangdong. Goni is expected to bring squally showers to Hong Kong.
In Vietnam, severe rough seas were expected to hit the northern waters of the East Sea Monday, with wind speeds of up to 102 kph in certain areas. Possible floods are predicted in the Mekong River system with water levels increasing by between 10-15 centimeters a day. Meteorologists also reported the tropical storm had a complicated trajectory and could last for between three and four days.

Landslides and flooding from a tropical storm in the Philippines killed at least eight people and left four missing before the storm moved on. The storm, locally known as Jolina, was being tracked over the South China Sea on Sunday, about 335 miles (540 kilometers) northwest of the mountainous northern Philippines, with sustained winds of 50 miles per hour (75 kph).

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - With August already here, the traditional Japanese beginning of fall just around the corner, and the end of the rainy season not announced yet in many parts of the country, some fear that the end of the season will not be announced at all. Although the 2009 rainy season in Japan, known as tsuyu, started about on average, the end of the season has been extremely slow to come. The Japan Meteorological Agency reported that the summer weather conditions have been largely affected by the 2009 El Nino which started in June. Pressure systems north and south of Japan have been continually colliding over the country, bring with it the bad weather. Southern Japan has experienced massive rainfalls in the last month that have caused deadly flooding and landslides. Central Japan has had a couple of EXTREMELY RARE occurrences of tornadoes. The deaths of multiple mountain hikers in central and northern Japan in mid-July have also been blamed on the UNUSUALLY BAD weather. 1993 also reportedly saw unusually heavy rains, a cold summer, and a rainy season that did not officially end in many parts of Japan. Similar to this year, the foul weather of 1993 was also blamed partly on El Nino. The poor weather conditions resulted in damaged crops and a low rice yield that caused many problems within the Japanese food market for the rest of the year. There are fears that the similarly heavy rains and cold summer this year could have the same results on Japanese food supplies.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - Thousands have fled uncontrolled forest fires which raged through western Canada, threatening several small towns and Aboriginal communities. Emergency officials ordered most of the 3000 residents of Lillooet, in westernmost British Columbia province, as well as several nearby Aboriginal communities, to leave their homes overnight after a fire grew overnight. The fire, about 200 km northeast of Vancouver, is raging out of control just 1 km from the historic gold rush town. Another 2500 people in the Central Okanagan, in the province's interior, were ordered to leave for the second time overnight, as firefighters lost ground in their battle on a fire that started two weeks ago on nearby Terrace Mountain. The Terrace Mountain evacuation is the most recent in the Central Okanagan, where about 20,000 people have been either evacuated or on alert in recent weeks. Hundreds of forest fires are consuming tinder-dry bush throughout the province of British Columbia. Lightning sparked 82 new fires and another nine were caused by people over the holiday weekend.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Argentina's pandemic H1N1 cases have peaked, and so far the death rate from the disease seems to be less than for seasonal flu. The disease has had its greatest impact on young people. With more than a month left of the country's flu season, scientists report that viruses isolated in Argentina are nearly identical to those circulating in North America.

Britain has seen a spurt in reported negative side effects from oseltamivir (Tamiflu) use since the National Pandemic Flu Service was launched Jul 23. The service allows people to get the drug over the phone without seeing a doctor. 293 reports have come in since early April, of which 143 were in the past week. The reported effects include vomiting, diarrhea, and psychiatric and nervous system problems.

AUSTRALIA - "Unless our hospitals can perform better, the Federal Government could have the excuse to take them over" during peak flu season. WA hospitals had been under siege for the past week, with patients suffering unnecessarily through long waiting times. Most of the state's elective surgery arrangements have been cancelled because of a bed shortage and ambulances have been forced to wait outside hospitals because there are no beds to take patients to. "For more than a week, our hospitals have been under siege and the situation is growing more serious by the day.'' The state has no capacity to deal with increased patient numbers during the flu season. While the ideal situation was to have 85 per cent occupancy rates in hospitals, WA was working at close to 100 per cent capacity. "We just don't have capacity in reserve.'' Hospital beds across the nation have been reduced by 60 per cent in the past 25 years. "We just cannot do the work, we can't deal with the sick, we can't deal with the injured, we can't deal with fluctuations due to swine flu. The hospitals go into meltdown.''

Monday, August 3, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The future is called "perhaps," which is the only possible thing to call the future.
And the only important thing is not to allow that to scare you.
Tennessee Williams

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
8/2/09 -
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
8/1/09 -
5.3 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA
7/31/09 -
5.5 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.7 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.3 NAMIBIA
5.4 TONGA

NEW ZEALAND - The enormous 7.8 quake, which hit Fiordland two weeks ago on July 15, has had manyaftershocks, and they are still being felt there. Though it was the largest recorded world-wide earthquake this year, luckily it did not cause much damage due to its remote location.

JAPAN - Many believe a massive earthquake is due any time in Tokai, an area south of Tokyo that sits atop a precarious confluence of tectonic plates. The archipelago is perched upon a precarious confluence of shifting continental plates that each day cause 1,000 quakes strong enough to be felt plus scores of temblors each year that are magnitude 5.5 or greater. The Tokai region, centered 100 miles south of Tokyo, is the anticipated ground zero for Japan's next Big One which researchers say could reach a colossal magnitude 8.0. Southern California's most powerful modern earthquake was the magnitude 7.9 Fort Tejon temblor in 1857. The Tokai region was last hit by such an earthquake 154 years ago. With an estimated frequency of 150 years, that means another ground-shaking event here may be just around the corner. For decades, scientists here focused on technology that could accurately predict an earthquake -- its size, location and time. Now the government has shifted its approach, acknowledging criticism -- both at home and abroad -- that such formidable natural occurrences cannot be predicted with such certainty. Instead, Japan has shifted much of its emphasis to instructing people on how to react once a temblor hits.

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES-
WASHINGTON - Several people living in or near Port Angeles have reported loud booms shaking their homes. Even though -- as with any intriguing mystery -- the pieces of the puzzle never seem to quite fit, explosive ordnance training in Canada may explain the booming sounds heard last week. Possible explanations involving naval and Coast Guard exercises in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Air Force flyovers, thunderstorms and permitted explosions have not fit the bill. But perhaps the most likely explanation is explosive ordnance training that occurred on Bentinck Island. The training, which involves small plastic explosives in order to destroy beach obstacles, occurred from last Monday through Friday. A likely explanation? Perhaps not, if it is correct that the island had not been used any other time during July since another resident has said that he was nearly knocked out of bed by a loud boom that shook his home about two or three weeks ago. He said he did not think too much about the incident, which occurred sometime between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m. that day, until he read about other people having their homes shaken by loud booms in Friday's news. Explosives training on the island is nothing new. In fact, munitions detonated on the island were blamed for loud booms heard around Port Angeles in 1982. "I've been here for 20 years, and this is the first time that I've had complaints from across the Strait." If Bentinck Island is to blame, why would they not hear the explosions every time? The weather could provide the explanation. A "low level inversion layer," which means that the air is warmer in the higher elevations, had been in place over the area last week. That may trap sound waves closer to the surface, and therefore allow them to be heard over greater distances. What about seismic activity? A loud boom caused by an earthquake could be heard close to a fault line as long as the quake was of significant magnitude. "When you hear big sounds, a large portion of this rock is being uplifted or shifted. That doesn't happen with small magnitude earthquakes." The seismic network, in the last two weeks, has reported two 1-magnitude quakes in Neah Bay and near Victoria, and a 2-magnitude quake in southern Vancouver Island, but nothing of greater strength in the area.
Those loud booms around the area are still a mystery. The Coast Guard said they believed the series of loud booms that rattled home in the Joyce and Port Angeles area this week came from Canadian military exercises. But the Canadians say they weren't firing anything big enough to make such a blast felt across the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Additionally, the exercises were finished before some of the booms were reported. So far, local authorities say they don't have any ideas what might be causing the booms. Numerous people have called wondering about what was rattling their windows.

MYSTERY ERUPTION(?) -
INDIA - UFO sightings have been reported from Lahaul and Spiti several times in the past, but this time a more near-earth phenomenon has spread panic in a small hamlet. On July 27 people in Rangrik village claimed to have heard and seen an explosion atop a nearby hill top, which they claimed was similar to volcanic eruption. This was followed by landslides and water gushing out of the hill continuously. While there is only one live volcano on the Indian soil – Barrel islands in Andaman and Nicobar – the local people fear this could be another one. However, geologists in Himachal Pradesh University rule out this theory, though they claim the explosion could be due to the presence of sulphor and hydro-thermal gases. People in Rangrik had been waiting for the administration to probe the matter but there has been no response. Meanwhile, they plan to trek the mountain themselves to have a closer look at the place from where water now seems to be gushing down.
INDIA - The mysterious explosion atop the mountain has sent scare waves across Rangrik village in Lahaul and Spiti in Himachal Pradesh. With 120 houses and 700 villagers, Rangrik is 4,000 meter above sea level and 7 km from the main Kaza town. "We have informed the district administration, but nothing has been done. Officials have only assured us that Geological Survey of India has been informed."
“We heard a blast on the hill and then flames came out from the eruption site followed by molten material." A team of geologists and revenue officers has now been sent to Rangrik village.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 08W was 260 nmi SSE of Hong Kong.
Tropical storm LANA was 415 nmi S of Honolulu, Hawaii.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANARY ISLANDS - A huge forest fire is out of control on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, forcing the evacuation of up to 4,000 people, including tourists. Its lush vegetation has been seared by the high temperatures of recent days. Military aircraft are fighting the flames but firefighters had been pulled back from the worst-hit areas because of the intensity of the flames. Recently they have been aided by a slight drop in temperature and a change in wind direction. Some residents were saved just minutes before fire engulfed their homes. Several dozen homes in the town of Fuencaliente were gutted. There are fears the flames could spread to an observatory housing the world's largest telescope. TV pictures showed flames metres away from villages in the Tigalate area, where a major containment effort is under way. Dozens of tourists have been unable to catch flights home because of road closures. "We experienced extremely hot, searing winds, and then woke up in the early hours of Saturday morning to very, very thick, choking smoke from the fires, extremely hot outside." Smaller fires have broken out on other Canary Islands, including Tenerife and Gran Canaria, but are expected to be brought under control soon.

CANADA - More than 500 fires are raging out of control in the western province of British Columbia, fuelled by dry forests and RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES.

OREGON - This week's RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE has led to an almost UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL of wildfire danger.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans to gather the U.S. public's thoughts this month on how big this fall's H1N1 influenza vaccination drive should be.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is aware of a total of 5,514 H1N1 flu hospitalizations and 353 deaths from 47 states and territories. The agency said last week it would no longer list national H1N1 case counts. Novel H1N1 activity continued to drop for the fifth consecutive week, with only four states and Puerto Rico reporting widespread activity, down from seven states the week before.

Wal-Mart may help feds with vaccine campaign - Wal-Mart officials met with US health officials on Jul 29 to discuss what role the retail chain might play in helping to distribute the pandemic H1N1 vaccine this fall. Options might include giving flu shots in stores and helping federal officials with logistic and supply-chain issues.

Switzerland to be among first to get Glaxo pandemic vaccine shipments - Switzerland will be one of 10 countries to receive the "first wave" of the company's pandemic H1N1 vaccine - the other nine countries were not named. First-wave-countries will get their supplies in September or October and countries in the second wave will receive theirs "a bit later." Switzerland signed an agreement with Glaxo in 2006 to receive priority delivery of pandemic vaccine.

AUSTRALIA - The health of pigs diagnosed with swine flu in New South Wales is improving and none are likely to die.

New AIDS-like virus - A woman from Cameroon has been found to be infected with an AIDS-like virus that came from gorillas. The woman, who has no symptoms of HIV infection, is well and was likely infected by another person, not an animal. Findings suggest this newly discovered gorilla virus is circulating among people, although the woman is the only person known to be infected with the new strain. The 62-year-old woman was diagnosed in 2004, soon after she moved to Paris from Cameroon. Routine genetic sequencing of the virus showed it looked like no other sample of AIDS virus and it was eventually compared to a gorilla simian immunodeficiency virus, itself only discovered in 2006.
This would be the FIRST TIME that gorillas have been found to be a source of HIV. Previous research has shown that the HIV-1 strain, the main source of human infections with 33m cases worldwide, originated from a virus in chimpanzees. It is the first definitive transfer of HIV seen from a source other than a chimpanzee, and highlights the need to monitor for the emergence of new strains. "This demonstrates that HIV evolution is an ongoing process. The virus can jump from species to species, from primate to primate, and that includes us; pathogens have been with us for millions of years and routinely switch host species...There's no reason to believe this virus will present any new problems, as it were, that we don't already face."

CHINA - A second man has died of pneumonic plague in a remote part of north-west China where a town of more than 10,000 people has been sealed off. The 37-year-old victim was a neighbour of the first person to die from the plague, a herdsman aged 32 in Ziketan, near Xinghai in Qinghai Province. The sparsely populated area is mostly inhabited by Tibetans. About 10 other people inside the town have so far contracted the disease. No-one is being allowed leave the area, and the authorities are trying to track down people who had contact with the men who died. This is the third outbreak of the disease in Qinghai within the last 10 years. Pneumonic plague is the most virulent and least common form of plague. It is caused by the same bacteria that occur in bubonic plague. Pneumonic plague is easier to contract, and if untreated, has a very high case-fatality ratio.

Friday, July 31, 2009 -

No update on Sunday, August 2. Have a nice weekend!

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The past can't see you, but the future is listening.
Destin Figuier

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/30/09 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.8 TONGA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
U.S. - From Maine to Florida, the Atlantic seaboard has experienced higher tides than expected this summer. At their peak in mid-June, the tides at some locations outstripped predictions by two feet. The change has come too fast to be attributed to melting ice sheets or anything quite that dramatic, and it’s a puzzle for scientists who’ve never seen anything quite like it. “The ocean is dynamic. It’s not uncommon to have anomalies like this but THE BREATH AND THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WERE UNIQUE." The unexpected tidal surge is subsiding, has reduced its reach from the entire coast, and is now concentrated just in the mid-Atlantic states. NOAA is rushing to study the data in an effort to understand what happened. Two main factors appear to have contributed to the extra high tides. First, there were steady winds out of the northeast throughout this anomaly. Second, the ocean current running from Florida up along the coast weakened. While the associations between these phenomena and the tides are provocative, it’s too early to tell how fully they explain this unexpected tidal event. One thing is for sure: The tidal rise is STRANGE. June was - high tides aside - “nothing to write home about” as far as climate data on wind, atmospheric pressure and the ocean. “It’s a bit of a mystery." Researchers were initially puzzled that there were no major wind anomalies accompanying the tides, but it wasn’t the magnitude that was anomalous, it’s the persistence of the winds. An even bigger mystery is why such winds would suddenly appear and why the current running up the Atlantic coast would weaken. Was it a freak coincidence, some jitter in the data, or part of a long-term trend or cycle? It could be part of a long-term global trend that’s tied in with the Pacific region’s El Niño weather pattern. “When I’m comparing these decadal cycles, I see that some of the highs in these decadal cycles coincide with El Niño events. It’s not to say that one is caused by another, but the degree of association is somewhat surprising.” But long-term tidal patterns can be hard to spot. “It’s such a long time scale that’s working in this process that we don’t sense it going on like we sense a hurricane coming and going. A subtle but persistent pattern that affects the whole North Atlantic ocean: It’s acting without giving any immediate clues that it’s going on until we see, ‘Whoops, the sea levels are higher than normal.’” “Is this part of a long decadal variation? Potentially, yes. But it’s premature to make that linkage.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm LANA was 1092 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone "Jolina" has intensified into a storm, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration announced today. In its 11 a.m. update, Pagasa said "Jolina" was last spotted 490 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 610 km east of Casiguran, Aurora. The storm packs maximum winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph. The weather bureau said by tomorrow morning (Aug. 1), "Jolina" is expected to be 440 km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora, or 350 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Despite this, Pagasa has not yet hoisted public storm warning signals.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Lana has entered the Central Pacific, but is forecast to pass well south of the Hawaiian islands. Lana is moving west at about 18 mph and is expected to continue doing so over the next couple of days. Its maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 40 mph, with higher gusts. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - The "HEAVIEST RAINS IN 70 YEARS" lashed Shanghai today, flooding 3000 homes and leaving nearly 2000 travellers stranded at the city's airports

JAPAN - The seasonal rain front continues to remain stationary along the length of Japan, spawning torrential downpours in the west, a RARE tornado in the east, and UNUSUAL weather conditions in Hokkaido. As a result, the Meteorological Agency hasn't been able to declare an end to this year's rainy season for a wide swath of the nation ranging from the Tokai region to northern Kyushu. 1971-2000 weather data show that the rainy season for northern Kyushu, Shikoku, and the Kinki, Tokai, Hokuriku and northern and southern Tohoku regions usually ends between July 17 and 27. This year, however, the wet season looks to stretch into August. The agency has declared the rainy season over in Okinawa-Amami, southern Kyushu, and the Kanto-Koshin region, which covers Tokyo and surrounding areas. But rainy weather is nevertheless prevailing over the capital. The agency said Tokyo's rainy season ended July 14. The high-pressure system in the Pacific that usually brings summer to Japan has been slow to strengthen because of weak convection activity near the Philippines. In addition, cold air masses and low-pressure troughs have migrated frequently from continental Asia, preventing the seasonal rain front from moving off northward. The agency said air as cold as minus 9 that was detected at an altitude of about 5.7 km started coming down from the continent in short intervals in July. This caused the annual rain front to stall and intensify near Japan. Rain in excess of 100 mm per hour fell on many parts of the nation, notably Fukuoka Prefecture, in late July. This was partly because convection activities intensified near China's coast, which has seen a slew of low-pressure troughs. Similar phenomena were observed in 1991, when the rainy season continued until Aug. 14 in Hokuriku and northern Tohoku, the latest end on record. Stormy weather even hit Hokkaido after low-pressure systems struck the prefecture in intervals over several days in July. Hokkaido usually avoids the rainy season. The UNUSUALLY stormy weather also played a role in the deaths of 10 hikers in Hokkaido's Taisetsu mountain range in mid-July.

BRITAIN - Householders face higher building insurance premiums after a sharp increase in property damage blamed on climate change. A rise in insurance claims has been caused by flash floods and storms in areas of Britain PREVIOUSLY IMMUNE TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS. The AA reports a 15% rise in claims in the first six months of 2009 over the same period in 2008 "in the number and cost of payments for buildings damaged by flash floods and storms in areas with little or no previous record of such claims." It cited one village, Carbrooke in Norfolk, where homes were damaged by giant hailstones during an ice storm in late spring. The storm also caused the roof of a supermarket to partially collapse, and when the hailstones melted, a local school was flooded. "It happened in an area with no previous record of severe weather events." Insurers are now demanding higher premiums to meet the cost of such FREAK weather, linked to climate change.

COLD -
COLORADO - Unseasonal weather continued Wednesday in the Denver metro area, with forecast temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal.
Northwesterly winds in the upper levels of atmosphere are the reason for the cloudy and wet weather pattern. Typically the upper-levels winds are from the southwest during the summer in Colorado. This type of wind flow is frequently called the "summer monsoon." The current northwest pattern is more characteristic of winter.
In contrast, in 2008 Denver had a streak of 26 consecutive days (from July 13 to August 5) of 90 degrees which shattered the previous record of 18 consecutive days established in 1901 and 1874. In August a record of 104 degrees was set on the 1st and another record of 103 degrees was set on the 2nd. In addition a record low minimum of 70 degrees was set on August 2nd.

ILLINOIS - Jackets in the morning. Sweat shirts in the evening. Long summer days bookended by an unseasonable chill. When will the madness end? In the final week of what so far is ONE OF THE COOLEST JULYS ON RECORD, one meteorologist wondered whether 2009 will be remembered as "the year without summer." "It's been crazy. I've never seen a summer like this in my life." The average daily temperature in Chicago for the month through July 26 was 68.9 degrees, well below the typical average of 73.3. The high temperature has never gone above 86, and fewer than 30 days so far this summer have hit the 80-degree mark. "It's an UNUSUAL summer, no two ways about it. We laid the groundwork for this earlier this year, with one of the wettest springs on record." "My trees are starting to lose leaves. They think it's fall." Basically there are no signs of this pattern changing. It looks like August will be a continuation of unseasonably cool weather.

CANADA - You know the weather is truly wonky when Canada's king of climatology suggests heat-seeking Manitobans head NORTH to work on their summer tans. "If you really want it warm, try the Yukon or Nunavut. Their temperatures have been about 12 degrees higher than normal." Indeed, Whitehorse's high of 32 C earlier this week put the northern capital on par with Miami and parts of Spain. Meanwhile, Winnipeg just narrowly escaped being named the summer's weather misery capital of Canada. "It was a toss-up between Winnipeg, Ottawa and Montreal. I was leaning toward Winnipeg because the last time it was warmer than normal there was in November of 2008." (Ottawa took the crown by having the WETTEST JULY IN ITS HISTORY). Not only was Manitoba's spring UNUSUALLY cold and wet, summer seems to be heading in the same direction. They've already had 40 per cent more rain than usually falls in July. Daily highs this time of year should be in the mid-20s, but temperatures have been at least two degrees colder than average. The entire country -- aside from the B.C. Interior, which has hit temperatures in the 40s -- is colder, wetter and darker than normal. Canada's UNUSUAL weather patterns are being caused by a cool jet stream, which typically stays around the northern territories and northern Quebec, but has decided to hang out farther south. Unfortunately, normalcy won't likely be returning for August and September -- at least not to Manitoba.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Extreme weather swept through virtually all corners of the United States Thursday -- including a RECORD HEAT WAVE in the typically cool Northwest, while heavy rains and unexpected tornadoes continue to lash the Northeast. Temperatures across Oregon and Washington state have been as high as 20 degrees above normal. Forecasters say temperatures will remain above average into early next week. The heat wave broke more than half a dozen records Wednesday. Among them was a staggering 103 degrees in Seattle, 104 in Olympia and 96 in Bellingham.

Higher-than-normal fire levels are expected in most of Texas, the Southwest, California and the Pacific Northwest this year compared to a base period of 1971 to 2000, with huge fires projected for much of Northern California and the Sierra Nevada range. By far the worst drought conditions, referred to as "extremely dry," are found in California, western Oregon and Washington, pockets of North Carolina and northern Wisconsin. But major fires are not anticipated in every dry place, and some areas with normal moisture are at high risk of tens of thousands of acres burning, especially northwest Texas and eastern New Mexico. "Lately we've had UNUSUALLY turbulent weather in the U.S. for the summer months. The Midwest is getting heavier-than-normal rain, and we've had some VERY UNUSUAL and powerful storms in the West, as well. Everywhere I go, people keep saying THE WEATHER IS JUST REALLY, REALLY WEIRD."

SPACE WEATHER-
A sudden bright spot that appeared in the clouds of Venus just days after a comet left a bruise on Jupiter has scientists stumped as to its cause. Venus' bright spot, first noticed on July 19, is not the first such brightening noticed on our cloudy neighbor. This time is a little different though because the brightening is confined to a smaller region. It also came in the wake of Jupiter's own new (dark) spot, believed to be the result of a comet impact. The new Venus Express images show that the bright spot actually appeared in the planet's southern hemisphere four days before an amateur astronomer saw it and that it has since begun to spread out, becoming stretched by the wind's in Venus' thick atmosphere. But just what caused the brightening is still a mystery. Theories have abounded, from a volcanic eruption to solar particles interacting with the planet's atmosphere. The volcano explanation is unlikely, for several reasons: Volcanoes on Venus seem to be less likely to blow their tops in Mount St. Helens-type fashion, instead behaving more like the oozing lava factories of Hawaii, so their eruptions wouldn't likely produce huge clouds of ash and steam. Also, it is unlikely that the explosions would have the power to push through to the other layers of Venus' extremely dense atmosphere. Another explanation is that a coronal mass ejection (an energetic plume of plasma from the sun's corona) or the solar wind could have interacted with the clouds of Venus. These "could cause something, we don't know what." Yet another possibility is some internal change in Venus' atmosphere that could alter cloud particles and make them more reflective (and therefore brighter as viewed from space). "Clearly something in the cloud properties changed." Even though these events have been seen previously, most notably in Jan. 2007, our limited knowledge about the workings of Venus' atmosphere and lack of enough spacecraft to comprehensively study the planet hasn't narrowed down the list of possible causes. "Right now, I think it's anybody's guess."

Polaris - the famous North Star - is undergoing changes that astronomers don't fully understand. Polaris, like other Cepheid variables, pulsates. Over a period of about 4 days, it brightens slightly and then returns to normal. But new estimates show the Pliaris may have changed in brightness - more than doubling in little more than 1000 years. What could account for such a rapid rise in light output? "My best guess is that Polaris is undergoing rapid internal structural changes, a RARE, very rapid stage of classical Cepheid evolution," said astronomer Edward Guinan. Polaris is shifting in other ways too. The difference between Polaris' maximum and minimum brightness is also increasing. "We have also found previously unrecorded amplitude changes in a number of other Cepheids." [no link for this, I got it from the September 'Astronomy' magazine, page 52]

Thursday, July 30, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"Much as we have awakened to the full economic and social costs of cigarettes,
we will find we can no longer subsidize or ignore the costs of
mass-producing cattle, poultry, pigs, sheep and fish to feed our growing population.
These costs include hugely inefficient use of freshwater and land,
heavy pollution from livestock feces, rising rates of heart disease and other
degenerative illnesses, and spreading destruction of the forests
on which much of our planet's life depends."
Time Magazine 1999

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/29/09 -
5.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
5.2 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 TAIWAN
5.3 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Anak Krakatoa, the killer volcano that claimed 36,000 lives, stirs once more. An amateur photographer has captured new images of the re-awakening of the world's most famous volcano. Last month he captured these images of the waking monster and even caught a violent storm passing over the new cone. The ticking time-bomb can be seen spewing ash into the Indonesian sky between Java and Sumatra where it lies on the Sunda Strait. Lava can also be seen trickling down the side of the new slopes that have quickly grown to a towering 360 metres. It now measures half of the size of the original mound that ended so many lives. 'These volcanos repeat explosions like that of 1883 many times during their life. The common opinion is that Krakatoa will become again really dangerous when it reaches the size it had been in 1883. It was two-times taller than now.' Anak Krakatoa is emerging from the remains of the former giant beast which blew itself apart. The original eruption not only killed thousands in fire, but also sparked a tsunami. The huge wave was caused by masses of rock falling into the water below as the volcano-island destroyed itself and collapsed into the ocean. Many more perished suffering from the effects of falling hot ashes and poison gases which smothered the surrounding lands. The reborn volcano, Anak, has been steadily growing out of its predecessor's remains since 1927. In November 2007 it started violently erupting again but islanders thought they had escaped another potential disaster when everything went quiet last year. This spring, however, the new mountain started rumbling again. The eruptions have become so fierce they light up overhead clouds and draw in violent thunderstorms as the atmosphere changes. [stunning photos]

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Fish and other sea swimmers contribute significantly to currents as they move. So-called ocean mixing entails the transfer of cold and warm waters between the equator and poles, as well as between the icy, nutrient-rich depths and the Sun-soaked top layer. It plays a crucial part in marine biodiversity and in maintaining Earth's climate. In the mid-19th century, Darwin proposed that creatures large and small play an important role in the stirring of ocean waters. A new study vindicates this idea, which had been dismissed by modern scientists. What determines the amount of water that is mixed is the size and shape of the animal, its population and migratory patterns. Churning of the seas is a factor in the carbon cycle.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Texas agriculture officials this month said drought led to an estimated $3.6 billion in crop and livestock losses statewide.

India's Uttar Pradesh state, a key rice- and sugar cane-growing state, has declared drought in 47 districts.

A new and dangerous trend is now emerging. Having exhausted their ability to grow food for their own people, the rich and powerful are now buying land in poor countries to produce food for their own consumption. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation and other analysts maintain that nearly 20 million hectares of farmland (an area half the size of all arable land in Europe) have been sold or are under negotiation. South Korea acquired 700,000ha in Sudan and Saudi Arabia purchased 500,000 hectares in Tanzania. The Democratic Republic of the Congo expects to conclude a deal on eight million-hectares of land with South African businesses to grow maize and soybeans. India has reportedly lent money to 80 companies to buy 350,000 hectares in Africa. Analysts claim that the move may secure food supplies to the investors but it would cause severe hunger and starvation for local population.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Military may assist with US H1N1 response - US military personnel may work alongside civilian authorities during any significant outbreaks of the H1N1 influenza virus this fall, according a CNN report. Unnamed Department of Defense officials said the proposal is awaiting approval by Secretary Robert Gates. Personnel from all branches of the military may be involved, and it has not been determined whether the troops would be pulled from active duty or from the National Guard and/or reserves.

About half the US population (160 million) are in the priority group for H1N1 virus vaccine - The vaccination campaign, which will involve two doses of vaccine per person, is due to begin in mid-October. In the event that not enough vaccine is available, a tighter group of high-risk patients will receive it. "The main message is that it's half the population. And it's the younger half of the population, as well as health care workers." Swine flu cases are actually decreasing across the US, having peaked 10 weeks ago. But scientists expect that cases will pick up again during the colder autumn months.

As swine flu vaccine becomes available in coming months, boosting compounds known as adjuvants may stretch out limited supplies. But they also pose special challenges for vaccine regulatory agencies in places like Canada and the United States. Neither country has licensed flu vaccines with adjuvants in them before, making the addition of the oil-and-water emulsions a potential hurdle to plans to fast-track pandemic vaccines. Fast-tracking is based on the premise the vaccine is the same as seasonal flu shots, just targeting a different virus. For that reason, officials in the U.S. have hinted they would rather not use adjuvants, unless the compounds are needed to ensure adequate supply for Americans. With manufacturers complaining of low yields as they attempt to make the new vaccine, that need remains a possibility, officials admit.
The head of the Public Health Agency of Canada has said Canada will use adjuvanted vaccine in response to a call from the World Health Organization to stretch the limited available global vaccine supplies. Using adjuvanted vaccine also offers the benefit of faster delivery of enough vaccine to meet the country's needs. If adding an adjuvant allows a half dose or a third of a dose to be used per person, each batch of vaccine that rolls off the production line will protect more people. Health Canada has been working with GlaxoSmithKline, the country's pandemic flu vaccine contractor, for several years on a process to fast-track pandemic vaccine. Health Canada wants GSK to conduct a small study that would provide "minimum data on initial immunogenicity and some safety data if we're going for the adjuvanted vaccine."
In the U.S., the Food and Drug Administration will use a mechanism called an emergency use authorization or EUA if the U.S. administration decides adjuvants must be used there. That decision, FDA officials signalled at a vaccine advisory committee meeting last week, will be a political one, not one that rests with the regulatory agency.

Although novel H1N1 flu strain is spreading worldwide, Latin America, currently in its winter season, is being disproportionately hit right now. Of the 816 deaths the World Health Organization has so far confirmed, two thirds have occurred in Latin America.

UK advises nurseries to remove soft toys - Britain's Department of Children, Schools and Families has come under fire for issuing recommendations that nurseries and "childminders" remove communal soft toys from care settings to help contain the spread of H1N1 flu, saying the toys cannot be cleaned adequately. The agency also recommend that crayons and pencils not be shared and large assemblies be suspended. Defenders of the guidance say it is sensible but should be administered sensitively so as not to upset children.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be.
Paul Valery

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/28/09 -
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA

CALIFORNIA - By bouncing sound waves off the floor of the Salton Sea, researchers have discovered more than a dozen previously unknown earthquake faults, leading to a new theory of how the ground is sinking and stretching near the infamous San Andreas fault. The new understanding of the area's seismic mechanics does not appear to suggest that a massive quake on the San Andreas is more imminent than previously believed. Researchers discovered about 15 to 20 relatively short faults angled toward the San Andreas. The data led them to propose that the crust in the area is being pulled apart by the San Andreas and the nearby Imperial fault. When the crust pulls apart, it subsides and dips into a basin, rather than just shifts horizontally. "It's not clear what the connection is between the features they're seeing and the faults at [greater] depth," where earthquakes are thought to originate. "Maybe the earthquakes are reflecting a slightly older pattern, and the sediment cover is telling us more about what's happened more recently."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
U.S. seacoast must plan for climate change - For many the jury is still out on whether the dramatic changes we've been seeing in the world's climate are the result of the activities of humans or just the normal cyclical function of the Earth and its atmosphere. Whatever one may believe, however, does not change the fact that these changes are occurring and at a rate scientists have not seen before. The issue of rising sea levels in the Gulf of Maine, which runs from Cape Cod to northern Maine, is of particular interest and concern on the New Hampshire Seacoast. The New England Science Center Collaborate has reported that the level of the Atlantic Ocean off Portland, Maine, has risen by 1.7 inches over just the past 20 years. The group also reported that for every inch the ocean level increases, several feet of shoreline is inundated. New projections show the sea level increase in the Gulf of Maine may, in fact, be double the initial estimates of 12 to 18 inches in the next century. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is preparing new flood plain maps for the region that will expand the plain well beyond where it is now because of sea level increases and the resulting impacts from the more severe storms and hurricanes that are also being projected. Whether the rise in sea level is the result of man-made causes is no longer the point. The critical issue is how to respond to what appears to be happening.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

The 2009 Atlantic tropical storm season is starting out rather slowly. In fact, it has been five years since we've gone this late without a named storm. But a slow start does not necessarily forecast a down year. The average date for onset of the first named storm is July 13. Still, it's not unusual to be this late. Strong tropical storms typically don't form until August and September. The latest for a named storm to develop took place on Aug. 29, 1977, and that was Hurricane Anita, a Category 5 hurricane. If conditions in the Caribbean and Atlantic are not favorable for tropical storm development in July, they will typically form in the Gulf or in the Atlantic near the U.S. "And that's not good news." This year's slow start is primarily caused by the strong westerlies which have come down from Canada. "The westerly winds are strong and they are inhibiting tropical storm development. And there's UNUSUALLY DRY area in the Atlantic and Caribbean." This year's slow start could also be related to the development of a strong El Niño.

COLD -
BRITAIN - The Met Office is issuing a revised forecast for more unsettled weather well into the month. It is a far cry from the "barbecue summer" it predicted back in April. This year was supposed to be "warmer than usual with rainfall average or below average".
This is the third summer in a row where it's forecast has failed. In 2007, the Met Office chirped: "The summer is yet again likely to be warmer than normal. There are no indications of a particularly wet summer." Instead they got downpours and floods in the WETTEST SUMMER SINCE 1912 for England and Wales. Temperatures were below average.
In April 2008, the Met Office forecast: "Summer temperatures are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average." That did not prepare people for ONE OF THE WETTEST SUMMERS ON RECORD with high winds and low sunshine.
In both instances, the Met Office failed to predict the movements of the jet stream - the high-level wind that races round the world 10km above the surface. The past two years it got stuck above the UK - and that locked a low-pressure system in place which in turn brought misery and rain. That has been happening again this July. Temperatures in both previous years were dragged down by the Pacific La Nina effect which makes it four times more likely that they will suffer a bad summer in Europe. But this year, the La Nina effect no longer applies.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

GREENLAND - The Ilulissat glacier has retreated dramatically in recent years - more than 15km in the last decade alone - but plenty of evidence suggests such rapid change in the ice is not unprecedented. In fact, over the last 10,000 years (a period of long-term warming since the end of the last Ice Age), the glaciers on Greenland's west coast have been through many periods of advance and retreat. Four thousand years ago, the Earth was significantly warmer than it is now, and accordingly the glacier retreated; but the evidence suggests it was perhaps only 20km back from its current position. So when the more excitable climate campaigners claim that Greenland's ice sheet - which contains roughly 10% of the world's fresh water - is "melting" and that catastrophic rises in sea level can be expected within a century, it is advisable to take a deep breath and ponder the complexities of the ice. The increased speed of flow of the Ilulissat glacier - from 7 to 14 km in a single year - means that an extraordinary mass of ice is indeed being disgorged into the sea. Glaciologists reckon as much as 35 cubic kilometres of ice each year is being shed from this one outlet alone. But there is a countervailing trend. Increased precipitation over the ice sheet - more snow - means at least some of the loss of mass in the ice sheet is being made good. It may even be that the ice in the middle of the Greenland sheet is becoming thicker while it is retreating at the margins. The ice in the middle of Greenland is some three kilometres thick and, deep down, it is hundreds of thousands of years old. Even the experts are not entirely sure how to explain the dramatic speeding up of ice movement and melt inside the Illulisat fjord. A significant warming of the sea may be a crucial factor. But glacier movement is quickening far into the ice sheet, suggesting that increased meltwater underneath the ice is also having a major impact.

WASHINGTON, OREGON - "Brutal" temperatures are predicted for the Seattle, Portland areas today as a RECORD HEAT WAVE afflicting the Pacific Northwest continues to bake everything. "The thing about a place like Portland is there are some buildings and residences that don't have air conditioning. You go to Phoenix or Dallas, yes it would be very hot there, too, but they have more of a system in place to deal with it." Temperatures pushed up to 108 Tuesday in Medford in southern Oregon, and the 93 degrees in Hoquiam on Grays Harbor in Washington state crushed the old record of 81 degrees that dated back to 1965. Even some normally cool spots on the coast were hotter than normal, with Astoria, Ore., at the mouth of the Columbia River reaching 92, busting the city's old record of 82 set in 2003.

This fire season throughout California and the West is likely to be ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD as heat and drought persist throughout the area.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

The immunization advisory group for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) meets today in an emergency session to discuss which groups should be targeted to receive the pandemic H1N1 vaccine and whether some should have priority. Pregnant women, children, and people with underlying medical conditions have been among the groups hit hardest by the novel flu virus and are expected to be among the groups tagged to receive some of the first doses of the vaccine, which are expected in mid October at the earliest. (About 6% of pandemic H1N1 deaths in the United States have occurred in pregnant women, though they make up just 1% of the population.) In the 2008 federal guidance, people are assigned to five different priority groups, or tiers, which move higher or lower depending on pandemic severity. However, tier 1 is the same for all severity levels: deployed military forces, critical healthcare workers, emergency medical services workers, public safety workers, pregnant women, infants, and toddlers. An estimated 24 million people are in tier 1.

A poll [pdf file] suggests that about 63% of American parents are likely to allow their children to receive the pandemic H1N1 vaccine, but only 51% of adults would probably receive the immunization themselves. Only 43% said they were concerned that they or a family member might contract the new flu virus.

Chinese authorities assert that their aggressive quarantine policy to prevent foreign visitors from spreading H1N1 flu has worked wel. Officials say China has had few cases and proudly note that no deaths have been reported. More than 1,800 Americans have been quarantined in China since the start of the pandemic.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The best things in life are free. (Or half off with a coupon!)

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/27/09 -
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.2 PAKISTAN

INDONESIA - there is a strong possibility of occurrence of a major earthquake in the region of Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the future as the Indian plate is moving northward with a slight tilt in eastern direction. By continuous movement the energy is getting accumulated and is locked in the subduction zone of Sunda trench near Sumatra region which was the main cause of the tsunami earthquake in 2004. The amount of energy released by the tsunami: "If one compares it with the atomic bomb explosion of Hiroshima, the energy released was as much as exploding 1.3 billion bombs of that kind. If the energy released could have been trapped by any means, it could have compensated for the energy requirement throughout the world for the next 220 years.'' The killer tsunami of December 2004 could have been more devastating had it occurred on the landmass. Had the earthquake occurred on the landmass, perhaps the entire habitat of Indonesia and Sumatra would have vanished. Because of the high intensity of the tremor, a fault has been formed at the oceanic bed which is 1,300 km long and 150 km wide.

CALIFORNIA - Huge tunnel to be built under San Francisco Bay. Hoping to protect one of the Bay Area's main water supplies after the next major earthquake, construction crews will soon embark on a job that sounds like something out of a Jules Verne novel: building a massive, 5-mile-long tunnel underneath San Francisco Bay. "All the experts tell us that within the next 30 years, there is a 63 percent chance of having a major earthquake in the Bay Area. By building extra tunnels and strengthening our pipelines, it means we have much greater assurance that we'll have water after the next earthquake." Only 12 companies in the world are certified to perform the job, which is estimated to cost $347 million. The Hetch Hetchy is the largest water system in the Bay Area, it provides some or all of the drinking water to 2.5 million people. An engineering marvel, the Hetch Hetchy system was built following the 1906 earthquake, when San Francisco burned after its water system failed. Today, much of its equipment is antiquated and at risk of collapse in the next major quake. The tunnel, for example, will replace two large steel pipes built in 1925 and 1936 that sit on the floor of the bay, and could easily break in a major quake, cutting off water for weeks. Racing to beat the next earthquake, Caltrans has retrofitted dozens of freeway overpasses and is rebuilding the Bay Bridge. Pacific Gas & Electric has upgraded gas lines and substations. BART is retrofitting the Transbay Tube, a 3.6 mile-long cylinder that sits on the floor of the bay, connecting Oakland and San Francisco. "The question is, can we get it all done in time?"

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA's northernmost active volcano churned out ash to a height of some 5,000 meters (23,000 feet) in the country's Far East late on Saturday. The Shiveluch volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula last erupted in December 2006 and has been active ever since. They registered over 170 tremors within the area in 24 hours. "Some of them were followed by powerful ash bursts and avalanches." Volcanic activity over the past two-three years has significantly altered the contour of the volcano, with the crater increasing in size by 50% and the slopes becoming far steeper. There are more than 150 volcanoes on Kamchatka, 29 of them active. (photo)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
EAST COAST U.S. - Marine scientists say they're baffled by SEVERAL WEEKS OF UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES that coastal residents have noticed from Maine to Florida. Unusually high tides are not uncommon, but their causes are usually easily identified. Since mid-June, however, scientists have found no credible reason why tides are running a half to two-feet above normal up and down the East Coast. One cause, wind, is an unlikely answer. "We don't have those kinds of winds right now. This is happening despite the winds. So, we have to look for other agents. One way you can raise the water level like this is just to heat it up." However, the tides came too suddenly for them to be an effect of global warming. Scientists are investigating the possibility that weather patterns, such as atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic, or the cyclical El Nino effect, could be having some influence on the tides. These high tides are more than a scientific conundrum. In June, the unusually high tides flooded the road to Tybee Island in Georgia, leaving some motorists stranded. Such a high tide during a tropical storm also could add significantly to its severity on coastal residences. The good news is that the tides now appear to be diminishing. The bad news is that scientists predict these freak tides will be normal in 30 to 40 years because of global warming.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

As we end July, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is dead (for now). There has not been a single tropical storm, a tropical depression or even a strong tropical wave in the Atlantic Basin. With nothing on the horizon through the first days of August, we’ll easily end the first two months of the season with no tropical activity. In the Pacific, there have only been 4 named storms and one weak hurricane (Andres) which lasted less than a day before being downgraded, and one moderate hurricane (Carlos) that faded only 2 days after becoming a hurricane. In other words, the eastern Pacific is UNUSUALLY QUIET with no change in sight. The western Pacific is no different…with few storms and none especially strong. We’re AS QUIET NOW AS WE HAVE BEEN IN MORE THAN 40 YEARS AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
In the Atlantic, the ocean waters in many areas have been running slightly below normal. While the water has warmed some in recent weeks, the temperatures are about normal. They'll support hurricanes, but the energy needed for strong storms isn’t there. Also, there have been repeated rounds of sand and dust blowing off of Africa across the ocean toward the islands of the Caribbean and even into Florida. That layer of air remains as strong as we have seen it at any time this season, and studies have shown that Saharan air (with the dust and sand) limits tropical development. If this continues, we MAY HAVE ONE OF THE QUIETEST TROPICAL SEASONS IN HISTORY because our August and September hurricanes tend to form in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, which happens to be the areas which are most affected by the Saharan dust.
Beyond the earth, the sun remains as quiet as we have seen it in a century. We can see so much more and in greater detail than observers did 100 years ago. Therefore, we can pick out tiny swirls and sunspots and even assign them to a particular solar cycle, but the spots we have seen recently would have likely been missed back then…so we can argue that this MAY BE THE QUIETEST SUN IN 200 TO 300 YEARS, taking us back to the Little Ice Age.
Dozens of cities will set RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST JULY IN RECORDED HISTORY.

Currently, we are experiencing an especially strong African dust season. On some days the sun's ultraviolet radiation is reduced 10 percent by tiny grains of airborne sand from the Sahara. The dust was so thick July 15-16 in Texas that it could be seen as grayish ripples across the western sky shortly after sunset. Satellite images that track dust floating across the Atlantic Ocean have led to recent findings that African dust can suppress the formation of tropical rain systems and even hurricanes. This discovery may explain why hurricane forecasters have been off the mark in recent years. This finding may also explain the lack of tropical rain systems in the Gulf of Mexico so far this season, because the Gulf has been covered by African dust. The Navy Research Lab's dust forecast model reveals an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN this year. The ASIAN DUST THAT ARRIVES IN THE U.S. DURING SPRING IS STILL ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES while Saharan dust is invading Texas and Mexico.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MONGOLIA - last week rain storms triggered the country's WORST FLOODING SINCE 1966. More than 20 people died and around 120 homes were destroyed -- a stark reminder of the extreme weather conditions that add to the woes of one of the poorest countries in Asia. Mongolia's grassland is rapidly turning into desert. Grassland is thinning in three quarters of the country, while seven percent of the steppe has already become part of the Gobi desert.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - British Columbia is getting ready for a summer scorcher this week that's expected to ignite RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES across the province. It's not really rare to get these kind of temperatures. It's the longevity that's the main thing.

CALIFORNIA - Traditionally the hottest month of the year in Redding and the northern Sacramento Valley, July is going out as hot as a firecracker. As Sunday's temperatures in Redding hit 107 degrees, a strong and persistent high pressure system could have pushed Monday's thermometer to a blistering 110 degrees. That's blazing hot even by Redding's standards. It will be more of the same today, with the high temperature expected to hit 109 degrees, which would fall short of the 113-degree record for the day set in 2003. The National Weather Service is also predicting that Wednesday's high should be near 103 degrees, while Thursday's expected high temperature is 101 degrees.

OREGON - Near record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures predicted for the week have public health officials urging area residents to protect themselves, their neighbors and their pets against heat-related problems. The National Weather Service and other forecasters predicted temperatures would rise into the mid- to upper-90s during the weekend and top 100 degrees during the week.

TEXAS - The drought that has gripped Central Texas is approaching the severity of Texas' most famous drought, the 1950s dry spell that lasted several years.

TANZANIA - Drought in Tanzana’s northern highlands has reached deadly proportions, killing nearly 100 cattle in Longido and wildlife along the sprawling borderline of Kilimanjaro and Amboseli National parks. Nearly 20 analyzed samples of livestock carcasses show that the livestock had eaten poisonous “wild amaranth unfit for cattle consumptions,” as drought scorched the entire vegetations, leading to their mass deaths. Millions of herds of cattle in the northern highland are currently facing THE WORST DROUGHT AFTER A LULL OF MORE THAN 48 YEARS which has scorched northern Tanzania’s thick vegetation and sucked its rivers dry. The drought in the area has assumed a catastrophic dimension, putting millions of cattle and wildlife at risk of starving. “The similar drought experienced in Longido way back in 1961, where millions of cattle and wildlife died as a result of phenomenon." Other parks in northern Tanzania also have dried up with their wildlife population migrating to human habitats scouting for water and green grass.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
INDIA - Food grain and vegetable prices in North India have shot up in the wake of subnormal rains in the region. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan especially are likely to face food shortage and ensuing soaring prices due to below normal rains. The Centre is planning to import dal to tackle its shortage; however, the step is likely to result in further hike in the prices of the commodity.
Twenty Uttar Pradesh districts were declared drought-hit on Saturday, following scanty rainfall and widespread damage to crops.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Regular winter seasonal flu shots may not work so well - As if the world didn't have enough problems in developing a vaccine against the new H1N1 influenza virus, commonly known as swine flu, reports from the Southern Hemisphere suggest there may be problems with the seasonal flu vaccine that has been produced for this winter's flu season. The Canadian Press reports that some laboratory tests indicate there is a new strain of the H3N2 flu virus -- one of three strains included in the flu vaccine -- that is different from the A/Brisbane/10 strain of H3N2 that was selected for the vaccine. If that is the case, the vaccine will provide less protection than authorities had hoped. Health authorities will keep an eye on nursing homes this autumn because the H3N2 strains prey particularly hard on the elderly.
Meanwhile, in a drive to inoculate people against swine flu before winter, many European governments say they will fast-track the testing of a vaccine, arousing concern about safety and proper doses. The U.S. is taking a more cautious approach: the government has called for volunteers to be injected with the swine flu vaccine in tests beginning in August to assess the vaccine's safety. American officials said results should be ready by the time the U.S. plans to roll out a vaccination campaign in October.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
- Publix Issues Voluntary Recall on Publix Gourmet Peanut Mix Because of Possible Health Risk.
- Celeste Industries Corporation Recalls All Lots of simplySmart Remove Make Up Remover .
- Sweet Superior Fruit LTD. Co. of McAllen, Texas, is recalling 104 crates of fresh cilantro (coriander) because the product has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.
- Luv N' Care, LTD, Monroe, LA, is initiating a nationwide recall of all Nuby Gel Filled Teethers. These products have been found to contain Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus circulans in the gel.

Monday, July 27, 2009 -

Sorry for late short update - the next two weeks are my vacation from work,
so updates may be a little more sporadic than usual (heaven forbid!). No update this Sunday, August 2.

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"I had a little chicken.
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window
and in-flu-enza."
(1918 Spanish Flu nursery rhyme)

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/26/09 -
6.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.7 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 TAIWAN
5.0 TAIWAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Europe - Firefighters have been battling blazes in five countries along the northern Mediterranean rim, slowly gaining the upper hand after an exhausting week that has seen eight people killed.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

H1N1 flu spreads to remote corners of the world - There may be no escape from H1N1 pandemic flu, which according to the latest World Health Organisation figures has spread to the most remote parts of the planet including popular island getaways.

Europe's drug regulators are fast-tracking the approval process for novel H1N1 vaccines, which could mean they would be used before much human testing is done. Though flu vaccines in the EU usually get thorough testing, authorities plan to evaluate H1N1 vaccines largely based on previous data for H5N1 avian flu vaccines, since both types have the same basic ingredients. Regular safety monitoring will be required as the vaccines are used.

A trade bloc of seven South American nations on Jul 24 demanded exemptions from paying patent fees for vaccines and drugs against the pandemic H1N1 virus. They urged the application of a World Trade Organization intellectual property provision to relax patent rules to protect public health. Although suspending patents could save millions of lives, they weren't suggesting that the vaccines should be produced for free.

The number of novel H1H1 cases in the Mexican state of Chiapas is soaring, with up to 130 new infections reported each day. However, Mexican health officials say the virus is under control in the rest of the country. Located in the country's southeast, Chiapas has a poor indigenous population, tourist sites, and heavy traffic from Central American immigrants. The state has the country's highest case count and has reported 8 of the last 10 deaths.

To see if high vitamin D levels help protect against novel H1N1 flu, the Public Health Agency of Canada is launching a trial to compare blood levels of the vitamin in those with mild and severe cases. Scientists speculate that the winter spike in flu infections is related to lower vitamin D levels associated with reduced exposure to sunlight. Higher vitamin D levels in mildly infected people might suggest a low-cost flu prevention measure.

Sunday, July 26, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debts."
Henry Ford

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/25/09 -
5.2 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.1 GULF OF ALASKA
6.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
7/24/09 -
5.0 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.5 WESTERN XIZANG

VOLCANOES -
ETHIOPIA - A huge amount of lava has spewed in the remote volcanic complex in Ethiopia’s Danakil Depression bordering Eritrea. The eruptive activity started in late June and the heat from the spewing lava was first detected by space-based thermal sensors. The area is home to mainly nomadic herders. So far there have been three other eruptions of the Manda Hararo volcanic field since the first volcanic activities in modern times began there in August 2007. However, the current eruption is being accompanied by dense plumes of sulphur dioxide gas. The eruption killed five people and hundreds of livestock and forced 50,000 nomads to flee. This active volcanic area is an extension of the East African Rift Valley. The exact mechanism of the rift formation is still under debate among scientists. Evidence suggests that the East African Rift System (EARS) assumes elevated heat flow from the asthenosphere (the liquid layer of mantle), which is causing a pair of thermal “bulges” in central Kenya and the Afar region on the Eritrean-Ethiopian border. EARS is one of the geologic wonders of the world, a place where the present tectonic forces could possibly create new plates by splitting apart old ones.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - Dunedin is on "high alert" as its beaches take another hammering from king tides and winter storms that have caused the worst damage since emergency powers were invoked in 2007 when storms caused major damage to the beaches. The high tide was "the last aria" in a drama that had been ongoing for a week. "It's as serious as it's been since the emergency [in 2007]." The oceanography of the area, including sea movement caused by White Island, could be having a significant effect. The battle between surf and turf has been going on since the 1800s, when families began settling what had been a swampy marshland.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Six people were killed and 12 injured when a rockfall hit a bridge in Wenchuan, the epicentre of the quake which devastated southwest China last year. The rock fell from a mountain onto the Chediguan bridge, sending vehicles plunging into the Minjiang river. At least seven vehicles, including a minibus, were destroyed. The bridge played an important role in the reconstruction of Wenchuan and reopened in May, one year after the catastrophe which left 87,000 dead or missing in Sichuan province in May 2008. More than 10,000 vehicles cross the bridge every day. The accident occurred after heavy rains battered the province. Casualties might still rise if more vehicles are found in the river. At least four people were killed and 50 missing after a landslide on Thursday in Kangding district of Sichuan. The mud and rock slide there, triggered by heavy rains, buried the encampment of a road construction crew.

EUROPE - Overnight storms Friday in western and central Poland killed eight people and injured nearly 50, while western Switzerland was pelted by hail as big as ping pong balls. "It was the apocalypse, I've never seen anything like it."
Bushfires raged across swathes of southern Europe overnight Friday, with a prolonged spell of hot weather turning woodland around the Mediterranean coastline tinder dry. Hundreds of fires in Spain, France, Italy and Greece have killed at least seven people this week, destroying thousands of hectares of forest and gutting dozens of homes.

JAPANESE rescue crews have pulled three more bodies from mud and rubble in a western region hit by a series of landslides and floods early this week, bringing the death toll to 15.

COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - weeks of cold southerly conditions, followed by a change to warm westerlies triggered dangerous avalanche conditions in the Canterbury area. Another large avalanche occurred in New Zealand, but no one was injured. The avalanche, which happened near a ski field in Queenstown's Remarkables mountain range on Saturday, came a day after an Australian skier was killed after being crushed by an avalanche on New Zealand's South Island. "The hazard at the moment in the backcountry is high – we all know about the fatality yesterday in Methven, and this is a result of the same storm cycle that came through." The cascading wall of snow would have been big enough to collapse houses if they were in the way.

NEW YORK - Rain, cool weather making for record-breaking summer. The National Weather Service says the average temperature in July this year sits at 65.4 degrees, making it the COOLEST JULY IN RECORDED HISTORY. The average temperature for the month of July is 70.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and ordinarily it doesn’t vary more than three degrees above or below. It has also been one of the wettest on record. Last month was one of the wettest Junes on record, with 6.25 inches of rain recorded — nearly double the norm.
This summer has been cool in the U.S. from Chicago to the East Coast because of the UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN. The jet stream will remain in this winter position, though weakened, at least for two more weeks.

OKLAHOMA - Late July is normally one of the hottest times of the year for Oklahoma, but the weather service noted an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN has created a northwesterly flow that has displaced the typical subtropical air mass, to allow the occasional cold front to move through the area, keeping intense heat at bay. This phenomenon is expected to continue for the next couple of weeks, and the fronts could continue to bring periodic rain chances through at least the middle of next week.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Bushfires raged across swathes of southern Europe overnight Friday, with a prolonged spell of hot weather turning woodland around the Mediterranean coastline tinder dry. Hundreds of fires in Spain, France, Italy and Greece have killed at least seven people this week, destroying thousands of hectares of forest and gutting dozens of homes. Spain has been the worst hit by the fires and authorities said thousands of villagers have had to be evacuated to escape blazes that have killed five firefighters. Thousands of police and soldiers had been drafted in to help combat seven serious fires in the south and east of Spain. On the French island of Corsica, some 4000 hectares (10,000 acres) of scrub and bush has burnt in 12 separate blazes over the past 24 hours, with temperatures of above 40 degrees Celsius and strong winds fanning the flames. In Greece, more than 320 wildfires have scorched large swathes of forest land across the country this week, but have so far missed homes and buildings. In 2007, the worst forest fires in memory raged for 10 days, sweeping through dozens of villages and killing 65 people. With extremely high temperatures forecast for much the region in the coming days, authorities said they remained on high alert.
Further north, the problem was rain and wind. Overnight storms in western and central Poland killed eight people and injured nearly 50, while western Switzerland was pelted by hail as big as ping pong balls. "It was the apocalypse, I've never seen anything like it."
Spain is on wildfire alert this weekend as a blistering heatwave threatens to trigger more devastating blazes. Temperatures are expected to soar to 39C.

A plan to build a 6,000km-long wall across the Sahara Desert to stop the spread of the desert has been outlined. The barrier - formed by solidifying sand dunes - would stretch from Mauritania in the west of Africa to Djibouti in the east. A 2007 UN study described desertification as "the greatest environmental challenge of our times". One third of the Earth's population - about two billion people - are potential victims of desertification. "My response is a sandstone wall made from solidified sand." The sand would be stabilised by flooding it with bacteria that can set it like concrete in a matter of hours. The plan envisages injecting the dunes with the bacteria on a massive scale or using a barrage of giant bacteria-filled balloons. "We allow the dune to wash over this structure then we would pop the balloon." North African nations have promoted the idea of planting trees to form a Great Green Belt to prevent the spread of the sand. A similar proposal - known as the Green Wall of China - has also been proposed to stop the spread of the Gobi Desert. The architect's proposed wall across the desert would be a complement to, rather than a replacement, of the Great Green Belt proposal. "It would provide physical support for the trees."

Clouds over the North-East Pacific dissipate as the ocean warms, according to a study. Researchers have described this as a "vicious cycle" of warming, as reduced cloud cover allows more of the Sun's rays to heat the Earth. They say warming could gradually reduce the low-level cloud cover that is thought to help cool the globe. But the team stressed that it was not yet possible to quantify how much this might impact on global temperatures. The findings were described as "almost shocking". In the past 50 years, there had been a "positive feedback" cycle in the low-cloud cover, so when the surface of the ocean was warmer, there had been less cloud cover. "These are subtle changes that take place over decades. But it's indicative of a vicious circle." Only one climate model reproduced this cloud effect. This particular model predicts one of the more pessimistic climate change scenarios, with temperature increases at the high end of the range of forecasts. The range of different projected temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases has been "almost entirely" caused by the uncertainty about cloud feedback.

HEALTH THREATS -
Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die over the next two years if the vaccine for the new H1N1 influenza is not effective and, at the pandemic's peak, as much as 40 percent of the workforce could be affected, according to new estimates.

The swine flu epidemic has reached 160 countries and could infect two billion people over the next two years.

Friday, July 24, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
TGIF!

QUAKES -
Quakes this morning -
5.5 WESTERN XIZANG

Largest quakes yesterday -
7/23/09 -
5.0 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - Mumbai braces for HIGHEST TIDE IN 100 YEARS. Nearly 200 people have been evacuated from coastal areas, warnings have been sent out to those in low-lying regions and schools have advised students to stay at home as the financial capital braces for a massive 5.5 metre high tidal wave, billed as the highest in 100 years, to lash it this afternoon. The high tide is expected to hit Mumbai and the surrounding Konkan region at 2.05 p.m. The waters will ebb only after three to four hours. In the past two days, as waves measuring 4.85 and 5.1 metres lashed Mumbai, civic and disaster management authorities evacuated people -- mostly shanty dwellers -- from vulnerable areas like Colaba, Cuffe Parade, Andheri, Jogeshwari and even parts of neighbouring Thane. The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai has issued warnings to people in low-lying areas to watch out for the gigantic tide Friday and take adequate precautions. On Thursday, sea water rushed into several buildings in Cuffe Parade, Worli, Dadar, Prabhadevi, Andheri, Juhu, Khar and Malad. Even the official bungalow at Shivaji Park in Dadar was not spared. The huge waves knocked down a compound wall. The tides offered a RARE view of a natural phenomenon after clouds obscured the solar eclipse Wednesday. Thousands of people excitedly saw the tides from a safe distance yesterday. Today, greater numbers are expected. Crowds had assembled even at the Thane Creek and commuters were seen craning their necks to see the swirling waters as the trains crossed the railway bridges at Bhayander Creek. Last week, the MCGM had inserted big and small advertisements in newspapers, warning people of the potential damage that could be wreaked by the high tides and contact details for emergency services. As many as 11 hotlines have been established and 34 rain gauges have been installed from where round-the-clock information is being collected. Control rooms have been set up at all the 24 civic wards.

CALIFORNIA - Heat and high waves headed to southern California. High temperatures and surf were expected to be in full force starting Thursday at Southern California beaches, where people trying to beat the heat might be told to stay out of the water. As the heat wave continues, south facing beaches in L.A. and Orange counties are bracing for large waves, just in time for the Hurley U.S. Open of Surfing competition, which ends Sunday in Huntington Beach. But regular folks drawn to the cool Pacific Ocean may be in for a rude awakening: Lifeguards may warn them not to go into the water if the surf gets too high and dangerous. The high surf will be the result of 50-knot winds that developed off Tahiti, producing 45-foot waves there – and that system is traveling north to Southern California. "It's pretty RARE in California to see the best surfers in the world on really large waves." The National Weather Service has issued a warning to boaters in south-facing harbors to anchor down. Beach homeowners are also being told to be wary of increased erosion from large waves and high tides. "It's going to be very dangerous, there's going to be a lot of rip current." As high pressure continues to heat up the Southland, triggering heat warnings in Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, thousands are expected to flock to area beaches to cool off. "Typically, it would be a red-flag warning and we would ask swimmers to stay out of the water."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Landslides, floods plague quake-hit southwest China. Four construction workers are dead and more than 50 missing after a landslide took out a dam project in Sichuan province, in the latest of a series of disasters caused by heavy rains in southwest China. Flooding along the steep mountains that witnessed last year's earthquake has brought more misery to survivors. Local governments in Sichuan and Gansu provinces are sending tents and relief for a second time, as rains and floods displaced thousands of people. Electricity was only just restored on Thursday to 80,000 people hit by floods last week in Longmen, southern Gansu province. On Thursday, the heavy rains triggered a landslide at the Changheba hydropower plant in Kangding, temporarily blocking a river. Up to 97 people trapped by the slide have been rescued, but at least 53 are still missing,

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

BRITAIN - Forecasters are predicting that temperatures will steadily rise over the next few weeks with the possibility of reaching 101F (38.5C) in mid-August. 'The roller-coaster summer will have another high. When it does arrive, record temperatures may well be achieved. At present, the second week of August looks likely to break the warmest-day record for England, and possibly Wales.' Britain has suffered a wetter than average July with 56.6mm of rain falling in the first two weeks. The July average is 70mm. The UK's record rainfall fall for July was set in 1998 when 145.3mm poured down.

SPACE WEATHER-
A small sunspot is developing. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 23.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Flu infects 100,000 in past week in England with the under 14s the worst hit. The number of new infections has doubled. While new cases have increased from 55,000 to an estimated 100,000, the number of people in hospital has not risen accordingly. Some 840 patients are in hospital - 63 of which are in critical care - compared to 652 last week. Calls have already started flooding in to National Flu Service and in the first few hours the website was receiving 2,600 hits a second - or 9.3 million an hour. It is the first time the public has been given access to prescription drugs through phone or internet channels. "The government is hoping that people won't abuse the system but there isn't any danger of the UK running out of [anti-viral drug] Tamiflu. We've got enough for half the population and more on the way - more than virtually any country in the world." The flu service is not covering the rest of the UK as Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland have all experienced much less demand. They will be able to plug into it if they need to, although experts have said Scotland appears to be over the worst of this phase with 1,200 new cases reported in the past week.
Absenteeism in British workplaces is three times normal for this time of year, a consultant group told the British government this week, leading to fears that businesses will struggle when the H1N1 influenza pandemic peaks. Many companies have instituted hygiene steps, but an expert said most haven't planned for absences, such as making telecommuting plans, boosting customer self-service systems, and identifying key workers.

Swine Flu prevention takes on new urgency - U.S. Officials call for FDA to move on vaccine without data from clinical trials. A federal advisory panel said the FDA should move ahead to approve or license the new H1N1 vaccine without waiting to receive data from clinical trials to test its safety and efficacy. The government and vaccine makers plan to start human studies of the H1N1 vaccine in the U.S. in the coming weeks, but the first-look data from those studies won't be given to the FDA until September. Each year the FDA approves seasonal vaccines based on strain changes without new human studies. The agency does test the vaccines for potency and also monitors vaccine safety on a continuous basis. "I think this is an entirely appropriate way of proceeding and in the public health's best interest considering that schools will be opening in a month." Health officials health officials said Thursday they have purchased enough bulk ingredients to produce 195 million doses of swine flu vaccine, and expect to make up to 100 million doses available in October, even though the vaccine is proving difficult to manufacture. The viruses used to make the active ingredient are producing yields of just 30% of what's typically seen with seasonal vaccines. It will take until March to obtain enough doses for the entire U.S. population of just over 300 million people.

Southern hemisphere sees H3N2 seasonal flu variant - Laboratory experts in the southern hemisphere are reporting the circulation of a drifted strain of the seasonal H3N2 flu virus, raising the threat of a vaccine mismatch for the northern hemisphere's upcoming flu season. Officials, overwhelmed by handling a deluge of pandemic H1N1 samples, aren't sure how common the variant is. It was first identified in March by researchers in British Columbia.

Thursday, July 23, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
This little piggy went to market.
This little piggy stayed home.
This little piggy had swine flu.
This little piggy had none.
And this little piggy went wee, wee, wee and infected two Canadian food inspectors who visited his home.
(article in Health Threat section below).

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/22/09 -
5.1 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
5.5 SOUTHERN IRAN

The massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake last week has moved the south of New Zealand closer to Australia. With the countries separated by the 2250-km-wide Tasman Sea, the 30cm closing of the gap in New Zealand's southwest won't make much difference. But the shift illustrated the huge force of the tremor, the biggest in the world so far this year. "Basically, New Zealand just got a little bit bigger is another way to think about it." While the southwest of the South Island moved about 30cm closer to Australia, the east coast of the island moved only 1cm westwards. The biggest quake in New Zealand in 78 years caused only slight damage to buildings and property when it struck the remote southwest Fiordland region of the South Island last Thursday. A small tsunami was generated by the earthquake, with a tide gauge on the West Coast of New Zealand recording a wave of one metre. "For a very large earthquake, although it was very widely felt, there were very few areas that were severely shaken." The quake was UNUSUAL in striking right on the boundary of the Australian and Pacific plates and will be important in researching earthquake hazards.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHILE - RARE desert rain affects 20,000 Chileans. Downpours that began on Monday in the province of Iquique - located in Chile’s extreme-north desert region of Tarapacá - have damaged 4,800 homes, closed schools for 48 hours and led to power outages affecting more than 20,000 people. The storms eventually dumped 15-TIMES THE AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY and prompted Chile’s national emergency office to mobilize resources for roof repairs and the prevention of landslides. While Chile’s government has thus far viewed this rain event simply as an “UNUSUAL CLIMATIC PHENOMENON,” climate change experts see an overall trend toward extreme weather events and changing rainfall patterns in Latin America, displacing hundreds of thousands of people in recent years.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FLORIDA - Tallahassee BROKE ITS RECORD-LOW TEMPERATURE for Tuesday thanks to a RARE summertime weather pattern. The temperature dropped to 60 degrees, breaking the previous low record for the day of 67, set in 1929, 1970 and 1971. A deep trough of low pressure helped push a cold front through the area over the weekend and funnel in cooler air. A dry, clear night helped cool things down more. “When you get really, really dry, the skies get clear, and you’re able to radiate out a lot of heat." The low in Apalachicola dropped to 63, breaking its record of 71, set in 1947.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

One of the biggest glaciers in the southern hemisphere has shrivelled by a fifth in 40 years. The Cook glacier on Kerguelen, an island in France's southern Indian Ocean territories, covered 501sq km in 1963. The glacier lost an average of nearly 1.5m in height each year by 2003, shedding almost 22 per cent of its original volume. In terms of area, the glacier shrank by 1.9sq km per year from 1963 to 1991. Thereafter the loss doubled, to 3.8sq km per year. By 2003, the glacier covered only 403sq km, a retreat of 20 per cent compared with 1963. Cook's early shrinkage could be attributed in part to the residual effect of natural warming that took place after the "Little Ice Age'' that ended in the late 19th century. But the post-1991 warming is linked more to higher temperatures and low precipitation that began to occur in the early 1980s. This is also a period when man-made carbon emissions started to soar and the Southern Ocean that girdles Antarctica showed perceptible warming.

AUSTRALIA - Unseasonal weather bearing a closer resemblance to November than winter has provided Sydney with its WARMEST JULY DAY IN 19 YEARS. Wednesday's peak of 24.7 was the warmest July day in Sydney since 1990, when the temperature in Sydney hit 25.9 degrees. The glorious winter days were attributed to warm winds. "We've had a few days when we've had north-westerly winds blow over the top of us, and that has brought in warmer temperatures from inland areas."

WASHINGTON D.C. - This summer, they've had numerous days with dew points in the 50s or lower. Whenever dew points are in the 50s or lower in the summer, the air is very dry and comfortable compared to dew points which are customarily in the sticky mid-to-upper 60s. Last week, the dew point dropped down to the desert-like 30s on Tuesday. How RARE is that in July in D.C.? July dew points have only dipped into the 30s at Reagan National Airport two other times. Prior to last Tuesday's 39 at DCA (at 4 p.m.), the dew point fell to 39 on July 1, 2007 and also on July 1 in 1988, when it bottomed out at 37 degrees. So the dry air they had last week was indeed rare -- something that only happens about once a decade it seems.

SPACE WEATHER-
SURPRISE AURORA DISPLAY - forecasters did not predict this display. It began on July 21 when a seemingly minor solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field. The minor hit turned into a not-so-minor display because a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to pour in and fuel the storm. Northern Lights descended as far south as the Dakotas, Montana, Iowa and Wisconsin. The solar wind is still blowing, but the crack has closed, bringing an end to the lights.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

Canadian inspectors got sick after exposure to infected pigs - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said that two of its employees contracted the novel H1N1 virus during their investigation earlier this spring of an Alberta pig herd that had the virus. The employees reportedly removed their protective masks, contrary to recommended procedures, in the hog barn after their equipment fogged up. They got sick within days of their exposure to the virus in the barn.

A vaccine for the deadly swine flu could be available within weeks, with world-first human trials already underway in Australia which has now recorded more than 40 deaths.
Human trials of a vaccine to protect against the H1N1 swine flu virus have begun in Australia and China. Vaxine and CSL have both started injecting volunteers this week, but it will be at least six weeks before the initial results are known. Worldwide, more than 700 people have died from H1N1. And the overall figure is likely to climb today when the Department of Health gives its weekly update. Adelaide-based Vaxine began trials Monday with 300 subjects, and Melbourne's CSL has 240 people in its trial, which started Wednesday. "There is no guarantee any of these vaccines will work. Swine flu is a very peculiar beast, its a very different virus that we're dealing with. But we are hopeful." Officials have been considering whether to extend the school summer holidays to try to limit the spread of the virus before a vaccine is widely available.
Meanwhile, the Meningitis Research Foundation has warned the focus on swine flu risks masking other serious illnesses. The foundation warned people to be aware that the early symptoms of meningitis and septicaemia were "very similar" to flu. The group also said the levels of flu circulating in the UK meant that immune systems were compromised and could lead to a rise in meningitis cases.

A group of health facilities across the U.S. have been chosen to participate in human trials for swine flu vaccines. The first shots are to be given to healthy adults, of any age, in early August. If there are no immediate safety concerns, such as allergic reactions, testing would begin soon in children as young as 6 months. The government and vaccine makers are seeking thousands of volunteers to roll up their sleeves for the first swine flu shots -- to test whether a vaccine will protect against this novel virus before its expected rebound in the fall. The government will rely heavily on the study results, as well as additional research by vaccine makers, when deciding whether to offer swine flu vaccine to millions of Americans starting in mid-October. That's assuming that enough of the hard-to-make vaccine has been produced by then. All volunteers will receive two swine flu shots, 21 days apart. By early September, blood tests should show how much protection the initial dose triggered and whether a low dose worked or a higher dose was needed. It will take another month to get information on the second shot.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 -

Now that I'm older, I don't bother to drink anymore -
I find I get the same effect just by standing up really fast.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/21/09 -
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Yellowstone National Park - Apparently the volcano supervolcano that created one of the country’s best national parks isn’t as sleepy as researchers once thought. Although researchers aren’t trying to terrify us, there is some evidence that the volcano has been inching upwards in recent years. It’s doming, it’s growing, and researchers refer to it as a caldera at unrest, which sounds a little unsettling to us. Especially when you consider some of the suspected supervolcano eruptions that have taken place in the planet’s history. About 2.1 million years ago an eruption at Yellowstone left a hole in the ground as large as Rhode Island. For now, researchers seem to agree on one thing: they aren’t sure what will happen and when. An eruption could wipe out much of the human race and next week we could be plunged into a volcanic winter for 100,000 years, or never at all.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TASMANIA - Wild winds caused havoc around Tasmania Monday, felling trees and power lines and ripping vessels from moorings and smashing them into rocks. Temperatures soared across the state early in the day, hitting a top of 19C -- eight degrees above the July average. The Bureau of Meteorology issued a warning about an ABNORMALLY HIGH EVENING TIDE in the South-East, with concern over flooding in very low-lying areas. The UNUSUAL weather was caused by a high-pressure system squeezed between cold fronts. The strongest wind gusts of 137km/h were recorded at Maatsuyker Island and Scotts Peak. While the wind was "pretty significant", no records were broken.

ITALY - The open water competition at the world championships was thrown into disarray Saturday by wild weather off the coast of Italy that wrecked the starting pontoon and timing equipment on the eve of the 5km races. The entire competition was postponed for two days while the event organisers considered how best to proceed, whether by replacing the damaged equipment or moving to a new venue if the bad weather continued. "A whole lot of wind brought the sea up and washed away all their infrastructure." The venue was at Ostia, south-west of Rome.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

COLD -
ALABAMA - A summer cold front that moved into the South SET RECORD LOWS FOR THREE STRAIGHT DAYS in Tuscaloosa and the forecast called for another record low before dawn Tuesday. “July cold fronts are RARE, and they don’t make it down this [far south] very often." The low Monday morning was 59 degrees, breaking the record of 64 degrees posted on the same date in 2004. Nearly EVERY CITY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA HAD A RECORD LOW. Temperatures in Pinson and Anniston reached 55 degrees, breaking records from 1962 and 1947, respectively. Tuscaloosa, however, was one of the few spots in the state to post record lows Saturday and Sunday. The average low for this time of year is 72 degrees. To post record low maximum temperatures in the summer usually requires rain and cloud cover. But this cool air was the result of low pressure in the Northeast that whipped the colder air mass around it and towards the South. It should move east as a ridge of high pressure from the west moves in.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Climate change pales to food shortage risk - The world is currently undertaking a monumental shift - for the first time since mankind inhabited the earth, more than half the world’s population now live in urban areas. The consequences are dire. As the world’s population migrates into urban centres, producers are turning into consumers. The threat created by this shift to the world’s food security has led to scientists to declare it to be “the scientific challenge of the age”. A dwindling global food supply caused by soaring food prices, the destruction of agricultural land and a decreasing water supply is set to become the catalyst for regional and global instability. The water required to sustain Australia’s urban population boom is increasingly being sourced from water that was once used to grow food.

Coffee exports from ETHIOPIA, Africa's largest producer of the beans, fell 28 percent to the LOWEST LEVEL IN 6 YEARS after a drought cut harvests.

KENYA - Baboons and monkeys are invading people's homes and taking away food from kitchens as rain failure continues. Indeed, residents of Nakuru Town near Lake Nakuru National Park are now living in fear following the constant invasion by baboons into their homes. Women and children can no longer go about their daily chores for fear of being attacked by baboons. The animals are also suffering following a severe shortage of water as most of the water points in the park have dried up. Water in rivers and dams has reduced to worrying levels and the lives of the people are now threatened.

INDIA - With three Indian states declaring drought and a dearth of rainfall in key northern farmlands, output of staple crops such as rice, sugar cane, wheat and oilseeds are poised to fall sharply this year. Area under summer-sown crops - such as rice, pulses and sugar cane - has already fallen below last year's level because of the weak rains. Summer crops are usually sown with the arrival of monsoon rains in June and July, then harvested by October, but sowing has been delayed for many crops due to scanty rains in the northern states. "If rains don't improve in the northwestern regions by next week, the drop in sugar cane output could be more than 10%-15%." Delayed rains in northern and northwestern India won't only affect summer-sown crops; output of wheat, which is sown in the winter months of October-November, will also likely be hit. Late rains could mean that even the harvest of the summer crops will be delayed, leaving less time to prepare the soil for winter crops. Insufficient monsoon rains will also reduce soil moisture and water table levels, which would affect yields.

Drought threat for BANGLADESH as monsoon fails - A delay to Bangladesh's monsoon season is posing a severe risk of drought in the impoverished nation and threatening food supplies.

ARGENTINA - The damage caused by drought to grain growing areas has left Argentina on course for its LOWEST WHEAT EXPORTS FOR MORE THAN 20 YEARS.

HEALTH THREATS -
Advice to pregnant women sows confusion in UK - Messages from two health groups in Britain caused confusion about the dangers posed by the novel H1N1 virus to women who are pregnant or may become pregnant. The Royal College of Midwives said pregnant women should not use public transport, while the National Childbirth Trust suggested that women delay pregnancy until the pandemic ends. Government health officials described the groups' advice as extreme and said their advice to women had not changed.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said to expect 20% to 30% of the population to be affected during the next wave of pandemic H1N1, with the attack rate highest in children and young adults. Though it admits uncertainty, the ECDC says a "reasonable" assumption is a hospitalization rate of 1% to 2%. It also estimates a case-fatality rate of 0.1% to 0.2% and says, "this pandemic can severely stress healthcare systems."

Security guards to protect Tamiflu depots in Britain - Security guards will be used to protect oseltamivir (Tamiflu) supplies when more than 100 distribution centers are set up in the United Kingdom this week. The location of the centers will be kept secret until they are set to open. There is concern about theft and the safety of workers at the centers. Plans call for giving the drug to patients who describe symptoms over the phone.

Two British air carriers, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, announced they would increase restrictions on passengers with suspected H1N1 infections. If a customer looks sick, the airport staff can call in a medical team for advice, the story said. If the medical team is concerned, the customer will be asked to produce a "fit-to-fly" certificate from a doctor or hospital.

Malicious software poses as H1N1 update from CDC - A piece of malicious computer software that's disguised as H1N1 information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is circulating. The file, called Novel H1N1 Flu Situation Update.exe, has an icon that makes it look like a Microsoft Word document. When opened, the file creates several new files that contain "backdoor functionality" and a key logger, or program that records keystrokes.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009 -

Snowmen fall from the heavens unassembled.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/20/09 -
5.0 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA

NEW ZEALAND on alert for even bigger quakes. The Shakey Isles just keep on shaking with the South Island of New Zealand rattled by more than eight sizeable aftershocks since Wednesday night's powerful earthquake which measured 7.8 on the Richter scale. Experts say there's a very real possibility that another big one is on the way. The quake off the west coast of New Zealand's South Island is the biggest quake to hit in the world so far this year. The quake was the same magnitude as the one in 1931 which struck the North Island city of Napier and killed more than 200 people. But the recent quake seemed to send most of its energy out into the west - sort of moved the part of the South Island up and shoved it to the west, which is why this time no-one was killed, or even injured. New Zealanders need to get earthquake survival kits organised. 80 per cent of the population understand what the impact is likely to be, but less than half who have taken the steps of getting even the basic survival water and food items together. And the next big one is only a matter of time. "When we look at the alpine fault behaviour through time, we see that it ruptures every 200 to 300 years in a series of big earthquakes, magnitude 8, so even bigger than this 7.6 which recently occurred and the last one that we can see in the geologic record is from 1717, so in some respects the alpine fault is overdue. It is perhaps pregnant if you want to put it that way for a big earthquake."

The same folks who brought us the tsunami invisibility cloak last year have now come up with an earthquake invisibility cloak. They show that a platform made of just the right configuration of elastic rings could make a structure invisible to earthquakes by effectively steering a quake around the structure. It doesn't work well for compression waves, but the researchers claim it could hide buildings from the slower-moving, more destructive shear earthquake waves. [A nearby building could still fall on the cloaked one, with the usual result.]

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Tourists were ordered off an island volcano near the Philippine capital Tuesday after seismologists detected ground shaking that they said could presage a minor eruption. "Significant volcanic and seismic events have been detected over the past months" and the main crater of TAAL "remains off limits to the public because steam explosions may suddenly occur or high concentrations of toxic gases may accumulate." The tiny crater island is surrounded by a lake that formed from a past eruption. Scores of visitors cross the lake by boat every day before making a short day hike to the crater lip. Taal is one of the country's 22 active volcanoes with 33 known eruptions in recorded history.
Two weeks ago seismologists raised the second of a multi-stage volcano alert over MOUNT MAYON on the southern tip of the main island of Luzon following increased seismic activity.
The Department of Public Works and Highways activated on Monday its disaster management team in Albay province in anticipation of a major eruption of the Mayon volcano. Volcanologists monitoring Mayon said the eruption this year could be bigger than the 2006 eruption.

ETHIOPIA - Recent volcano eruption in Ethiopia caused surface displacement in the area. The volcano eruption on June 29 occurred in the area located at 65-kms northwest of Semera, capital of Afar regional state. The volcano has created about 4.5-kms opening within a 60-km-long dyke created in the area in 2005. With the expectation of more volcanic events in the region, DABBAHU-MANDA-HARARO IS THE MOST ACTIVE AREA ON THE PLANET RIGHT NOW. A number of volcano incidents have happened in the area since 2005. Most of the volcanic eruptions that occurred in the region remained beneath the surface of the earth; the recent one is the fourth eruption in Ethiopia since 2005. The eruption was a follow-up to the dyke created due to a similar eruption four years ago. Lava has overflowed from the dyke that covers 5-kms long and surface displacement occurred following the eruption. The recent volcano eruption also created small hills elevated from 30 to 40 meters. Bigger eruptions and earth quakes are expected to happen in the next five years. The geologists urged responsible bodies in the region to consider the issue in any of development activities being undertaken in the area.

ICELAND - Magma intrusion might lead to KATLA eruption. Over the past three weeks, tremors have been detected ten kilometers beneath Eyjafjallajökull Glacier. These are similar to palpitations that occurred in 1994 and 1999, which were cases of magma intrusion. In 1999, the palpitations impacted the volcano Katla even if they did not cause an eruption. "Volcanic activity under Eyjafjallajökull Glacier is known to be able to trigger eruption in Katla due to the proximity of the two." Seismic activity can cause Katla to erupt. “That is what happened in 1821 when an eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Glacier lasted two years, eventually leading to an eruption in Katla in 1823.” It could take months to determine what is going on under the Glacier. “The investigation took a long time in 1994 and 1999 but we are probably facing the beginning of a magma intrusion. We measure that by monitoring the uplift of the terrain.”

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
The potential for a huge Pacific Ocean tsunami on the West Coast of America may be greater than previously thought, according to a new study of geological evidence along the Gulf of Alaska coast. Future tsunamis could reach a scale far beyond that suffered in the tsunami generated by the great 1964 Alaskan earthquake. Official figures put the number of deaths caused by the earthquake at around 130. 114 were in Alaska and 16 in Oregon and California. The tsunami caused extensive damage in Alaska, British Columbia, and the US Pacific region. The study suggests that rupture of an even larger area than the 1964 rupture zone could create an even bigger tsunami. Samples suggest that previous earthquakes were fifteen per cent bigger in terms of the area affected than the 1964 event. This historical evidence of widespread, simultaneous plate rupturing within the Alaskan region has significant implications for the tsunami potential of the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific region as a whole. Warning systems are in place on the west coast of North America but the findings suggest a need for a review of evacuation plans in the region.

More than one million people in South Asia's Bay of Bengal could be swept to their deaths by a tsunami if a giant earthquake were to hit off the coast of Myanmar, according to a study published Thursday. But the study's author said he does not have enough data to say whether such a cataclysmic event – a quake projected to be from 8.5 magnitude to 9.0 magnitude – is likely to hit parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh in the next few decades or in several hundred years. Smaller quakes in the immediate area are rare. “I don't want to cause a panic. There is no reason anything like this would happen soon.” An earthquake estimated at magnitude 8.5 to 9.0 struck off the western Myanmar coast in April, 1762 – the most recent large quake found in the records. Given the historical accounts and more recent surveys of the area, which determined that a magnitude 8.5 quake could hit the area every 100 years and a 9.0 every 500 years. Other scientists have presented findings at earlier seminars showing that there was a threat of a quake-generated tsunami in the Bay of Bengal but that the worst impact would be in Sri Lanka.

The Meteorology Department categorically denied the rumour that a tsunami will hit Sri Lanka, Singapore and Malaysia on July 22. Many people in the coastal areas had panicked by the rumour which has no scientific basis. There has been a rumour that a solar eclipse would trigger a tsunami affecting several countries including Sri Lanka on July 22. The Disaster Management Centre will hold a tsunami preparedness rehearsal today at 3 p.m. with the participation of 11 coastal villages covering 11 districts in the country. They have been doing such rehearsals before, but this one is a well-organized rehearsal and all early warning systems, maps and routes have been drawn.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical cyclones.

RUSSIA - Pouring rains have come with a powerful cyclone to the Primorsky Territory and have not been stopping for more than a day. The heaviest rains affected the south of Primorye. A RECORD-HIGH PRECIPITATION LEVEL overnight has been registered in Nakhodka (93 mm – monthly norm), in Partizansk – 53 mm, which considerably exceeded the ten days’ norm. About TEN DAY'S PRECIPITATION NORM HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN ONE DAY in Vladivostok – 51 mm. Flooding of lowland districts and streets is observed in the territorial centre. The cyclone will affect the weather in the Primorsky Territory for another day. The weather conditions in the whole RF Far East will change only in several days. Tropospheric anticyclones that will destroy the dominance of the cyclonic whirlwind will be intensifying from the west and east in the coming days. However, this also does not guarantee that the rains will stop – another cyclone may sweep over the Sea of Japan (East Sea) on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - A series of mudslides sparked by torrential rains killed at least four people and left five others missing in the western Japanese prefecture of Yamaguchi. A nursing home for the elderly in Hofu city was hit by a landslide, prompting the military to send a rescue unit there. About 10 cars were also seen buried in one mudslide.

COLD -
MISSISSIPPI - On Sunday, the state awoke to some of the coolest temperatures for late July that the state has experienced overall in 15 years. A RARE July cold front pushed through the state on Friday night and has ushered in cooler than average temperatures across the state. In a matter of fact, morning low temperatures were as much as 10-15 degrees cooler than what we typically expect this time of year, which has led to record lows. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET ACROSS THE STATE, with the coolest readings in extreme Northeastern Mississippi, where lows dropped into the mid 50s.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

MISSISSIPPI - The heat had been the main weather story during the month of June, across the state of Mississippi. It was an overall dry and scorching month, which became for parts of Central and Southern Mississippi ONE OF THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST IN YEARS. The last 2-3 weeks of June were a hot RECORD BREAKING EVENT. During that stretch of UNUSUAL HEAT, they hit THE CENTURY MARK AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS WITH SOME SITES TYING OR BREAKING THEIR JUNE ALL TIME RECORD MAX. Over 25 new record highs were set across mainly Central and Southern Mississippi . Parts of Southern Mississippi suffered the most from the extreme heat, where high temperatures in some locations reached 100 and above for 8 out of 10 straight days (June 19-28) . Hattiesburg set record high temperatures, 9 out of 10 days. McComb set 11 new record highs, during the month, including an ALL-TIME NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JUNE; 103 degrees, on June 28th.

SPACE WEATHER-
Jupiter 'struck by large object' - The planet Jupiter shows evidence of having being hit by a large object, either a comet or asteroid. A dark mark has appeared in its atmosphere towards the southern pole. It was first seen on July 19. Observations reveal a bright upwelling of particles in the upper atmosphere, and a warming of the upper troposphere with possible extra emission from ammonia gas detected at mid-infrared wavelengths. It is 15 years since Jupiter was famously hit by Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 which broke up into several pieces as it plunged on to the gas giant. Scientists had plenty of warning of that impact but this latest event came out of the blue. Researchers say that if the mark really was caused by a comet or asteroid, it should spread out in the coming days in a predictable way with jet streams . (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
H1N1 swine flu has killed more than 700 people around the world since the outbreak began four months ago.

Monday, July 20, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Home is where you can say anything you like, because nobody listens to you anyway.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/19/09 -
5.1 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
5.3 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.

NEW MEXICO - A minor 3.0-magnitude earthquake that rattled a mountainous area of central New Mexico may have triggered extraordinary flows from a riverside spring about 100 miles away. The temblor struck Thursday night in the rural San Mateo Mountains northwest of Albuquerque. No damage at the quake's center was reported. But landowners along the Pecos River in northern New Mexico woke up Friday morning to find a spring near the Tererro campground putting out about five times more water than usual. The overflowing spring is washing sediment from an adjacent dirt road into the Pecos River, one of the more popular trout fishing spots in New Mexico. "We're investigating it. We're not sure exactly what happened. The spring has always flowed but something triggered that spring to start flowing considerably." Earthquakes in Alaska have been known to affect groundwater as far away as Colorado so "it wouldn't be entirely bizarre" for that magnitude of quake to have a long-distance impact.

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - The restive Mayon volcano had four volcanic earthquakes Sunday. The volcano, which remains under Alert Level 2 status, has recorded a total of 43 volcanic earthquakes from July 6-12. Mt. Mayon’s crater glow also remained at Intensity II and its steaming activity is still at moderate level. Mt. Mayon was placed under Alert Level 2 on July 10 because of the increase in its activities since June 2009. Alert Level 2 means “a state of unrest which could lead to ash explosions or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption.”

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Higher tides affecting East Coast, especially mid-Atlantic. - Scientists are closely watching UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST, especially in mid-Atlantic states including Virginia, where average daily levels are running between 6 inches and 2 feet above predicted norms. One veteran researcher said he suspects the trend could be the beginning of a decade-long phenomenon of high water caused by an El Niño-like effect in the Atlantic. “It’s possible we’re entering a new cycle.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has received many calls in recent weeks from concerned residents, waterfront homeowners and scientists along the East Coast. The practical effects of the trend can be both good and bad – good for people who normally have trouble getting their boats out beyond local sandbars and mud flats; bad if the region were to be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane. Storm surge already is a major threat in hurricanes, especially in low-lying Hampton Roads. But if water is running unusually high from an ocean anomaly, “you face a double-threat of significant flooding.” The extreme tides have occurred before and can last, on and off, for years at a time before suddenly changing back to normal. “There’s no scientific debate that these anomalous cycles happen. It’s what causes them that’s debated.” NOAA noticed the trend taking off in early June, affecting states from Maine to Florida. In Baltimore in mid-June, for example, the agency documented tides 2 feet above predicted levels. The events are continuing, though they have slightly subsided in recent days. “It’s more intense than usual and is happening at a time of year when we don’t usually see such variability. We’re definitely interested and definitely investigating it.” NOAA posted an alert about the trend on July 2 on its Web site, www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov , and continues to update it. "During the period from June 19 thru June 24 for instance, these water levels were running between 0.6 to 2.0 feet above normal depending upon location. As of July 1, these anomalies continue, but running lower at 0.3 to 1.0 ft. above normal. It is not unusual for smaller regions and estuaries along the U.S. East Coast to experience this type of anomalous event at this time of year, however the fact that the geographic extent of this event that includes the entire East Coast event is anomalous." [An anomaly is any occurrence or object that is strange, unusual, or unique. It can also mean a discrepancy or deviation from an established rule or trend.] In the Atlantic, quirky shifts in atmospheric pressure and winds, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, contribute to weather variability – and might be at play now. People who live or work away from local creeks and rivers might not notice the change. But “ship captains can tell, and the insurance companies know what is going on.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
No current tropical storms.

A weakening tropical storm Molave whirled into southern China on Sunday, drenching the region with heavy rains after killing at least five people in the Philippines. The storm began to weaken as it hit land in the boomtown of Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong, early Sunday. Molave's wind speeds ranged from 25 mph to 38 mph. The storm flipped over a fishing boat carrying three people Saturday off the city of Wenzhou, south of Shanghai. One fisherman was found clutching a plank but the other two remain missing. About 3,000 fishermen in southern Fujian province evacuated, and soldiers anchored more than 600 fishing boats. Hong Kong Disneyland closed its neighboring lake recreation center because too many trees fell over. Before threatening China, the storm caused severe flooding in the northern and central Philippines, forcing the evacuation of more than 10,000 people in four provinces and metropolitan Manila.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NORTH KOREA - Torrential rain battered North Korea's capital and other regions over the weekend, amid concerns that flooding may aggravate the country's food shortages. Up to 287 millimetres (11.5 inches) of rain fell in Pyongyang and the provinces of South Phyongan and South Hamgyong between Friday and Saturday. The North, after decades of deforestation, is particularly vulnerable to flooding, which worsens chronic food shortages by washing away crops. North Korea in 2007 reported at least 600 people dead or missing following devastating floods that caused huge damage to all sectors of the economy. A Seoul government report said this month the North was expected to run short of up to 840,000 tons of food this year.

BRITAIN - A lorry veered off a road and was left overhanging a 25ft drop as torrential rain and strong winds swept across the Westcountry causing road accidents and flash floods and felling trees. Emergency services across the region were kept busy Friday as the unseasonal weather battered the region. The Environment Agency put areas bordering the Upper River Tamar around Holsworthy, North Devon, on flood warning, meaning rivers were expected to break their banks. A short time earlier a woman had to be rescued by firefighters after her car got stuck in floodwater. A group of 10 cows who became trapped by a rising tide of deep water were helped to dry land. In Cornwall, fire crews and highways officers had to deal with numerous calls across the county as mud and debris was strewn dangerously across roads with drains were unable to cope with the deluge. Devon and Cornwall Police reported numerous weather related incidents across the two counties Friday. Power lines were brought down when the River Fowey burst its banks.

COLD -
Unseasonal cold weather hits Europe - A FREAK summer condition has caused heavy rainfall, storms and wintry weather conditions in Central Europe. Sudden gusts of winds have led to the deaths of mountain climbers in northern Italy. Austria has suffered from severe flooding and snowfalls in the mountains. In the town of Graz, rivers burst over banks, inundating many streets and houses. Thousands of residents have no power supply and the region has been declared a disaster area. A 71-year-old mountain climber died in the Austrian Alps. Many parts of Germany have also been affected, with a landslide sweeping aside a house in Sachsen-Anhalt. On the Adriatic coast, gale force winds have caused considerable damage in Croatia. The coastguard rescued dozens of people on boats who were stranded at sea, while on the island of Krk, a Hungarian tourist died when hit by lightning.
Mother Nature has been wreaking havoc in central Poland, with violent storms damaging buildings, severing power lines and flooding cellars. And all this after extreme weather last summer, including a tornado, that claimed three lives in the country. In central Switzerland, the search is on for two missing children believed to have been swept away in a stream swollen by heavy rainfall. It is thought the 11-year-old girl and six-month- old boy got into difficulties while crossing the waterway on their way home. In Austria, the unseasonal weather has provided picture postcard scenes in Tyrol. Snow there may not be spectacular in winter. But in July? No wonder tourists have been stopping to take photographs.

U.S. -
ILLINOIS - Saturday's high a RECORD LOW. Central Illinois saw a record-breaking temperature on Saturday when the high in Peoria was 71 degrees.
KENTUCKY - Saturday's high was 70 degrees at Louisville International Airport, the RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE for a July 18 since the previous record of 75 degrees set in 1918. RECORDS FOR THE DATE WERE ALSO SET Saturday in Frankfort, Lexington and Bowling Green. Such a cool day in the middle of the summer is a RARE occurrence. "We were almost 20 degrees cooler than normal today. The last time a similar thing took place was in August of 2004."
TENNESEE - weekend temperatures were expected to BREAK RECORD LOWS. The cause of the mild temperatures is from a weather system bringing cooler air from Canada into the area. The pattern is typical during the fall, but is relatively UNUSUAL during the summer. "It only happens about every seven to 10 years. We should be having some of the hottest temperatures of the year occurring right now. We're about 16 degrees below normal. I really can't tie (in a reason for why we are seeing this type of pattern right now)."
MISSOURI - This is July? Well, according to the calendar it is. But the weather this weekend was expected to be more like fall, with cool, dry nights and mild days that could set records for chilly summer weather. The predicted low for Saturday morning was 56, which would break the record of 58 set July 18, 1976. On Sunday morning, the low was again expected to be 56, which would tie the record for the date set in 1984. "It is just a strong, cool Canadian high pressure system." Along with RECORD COOL NIGHTS, the daytime highs -- expected to be in the mid 70s, could set marks for being the coolest maximum temperatures recorded on each date as well.
IOWA - Where's the heat? July temps fail to hit 90. The region is reveling in subnormal temps for the second straight summer. This is supposed to be the hottest period of the year, yet the Carroll area has been enjoying UNUSUAL cool. The high temperature recorded at Carroll has been below normal every day this month, and the trend was expected to continue into this week. Only 10 times in the 47 days since June 1 has the mercury risen past the normal mark. And 50 of the 78 days since May 1 have been cooler than normal. It's not a local phenomenon. No city in Iowa has cracked the 90-degree mark for an official high temperature in July. Since Iowa weather recordkeeping began in 1872, the state hasn't made it through a July without breaking 90. The lowest July high temperature on record is 92 set in 1915, which was the coolest year on record. Iowa average temperatures were 3.6 degrees below normal for the first half of July. In early June temperatures were actually more below normal than now, but ten days of heat and humidity made the month finish barely below normal. "We're always hesitant to call records before they're set. But this time we don't have that heatwave on the horizon." July 8 to 29 is historically Carroll's hottest period, with the high averaging 86 and low averaging 63. The cool of 2009 can be attributed to a combination of factors, the dominant reason being a persistent flow of air from the northwest. That's happening again this week, thanks to a large low-pressure system over the Great Lakes. A northwest flow isn't anomalous for July, but this duration is. "If we'd be in a full-fledged El Nino, we'd have an even cooler and wetter summer. But El Nino doesn't really start to show its influence until fall." "We've been in a northwest flow a lot this year. Typically we see that through May then get into a west-southwest flow." "It would be unusual for this late in the season for it to shift gears and go to unusually hot."
MINNESOTA - The "polar vortex", a massive swirl of UNUSUALLY COLD AIR which should be swirling over the Arctic Circle has been displaced 500 miles farther south than usual, forcing the jet stream (and subsequent cool fronts) to detour way south, pushing a family of cool fronts across the northern tier states. In Minnesota it has been gray, with almost October-like temperatures in the 60s (50s in the far north).
MASSACHUSETTS - July temperatures are averaging close to six degrees cooler than normal through the first two weeks of the month. The average high temperature since June 1 has been SETTING A RECORD even for the longest weather records across southern New England. At the same time, the average low temperature is not unusually cool, which was the result of all the cloudiness during June, which kept nighttimes from being very cool. A nearly stationary low-pressure system to the north over eastern Canada continues to circulate continental polar air into the northeast United States. The strong July sunshine has been able to raise high readings to the 70s each day, but few days have hit the 80-degree mark, MOST UNUSUAL for July. This month is even further below normal than June was during the first half of the month. Temperatures reached the 80s and even 90 degrees during a few days in April and May this year. There have been a few years like this in the past, where hot weather occurred during spring but never got started again during the summer, and this may just be one of those UNUSUAL YEARS. The long-range outlooks don't show a change in the cool summer weather pattern, so they just may have one of their coolest Junes and Julys. Several downpours have brought the rainfall total to three to four inches across the South Shore, which runs 1.5 to 2.5 inches wetter than normal to date.
NORTH CAROLINA - Eastern Carolina should be seeing temperatures well into the 90s on a consistent basis, but for the most part they've been running below normal, and it's been wetter than normal. The reason for this "cooler" pattern is an UNUSUALLY STRONG JETSTREAM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. On a regular basis a trough of low pressure has dipped into the Mid-Atlantic region, not only cooling them down with rain showers, but bringing severe weather on a more regular basis than normal. Case in point, July 17th they had an EF-0 tornado near Washington in Beaufort county, along with numerous hail and wind reports. This type of weather usually ceases after May into early June.
ALABAMA - An UNUSUALLY strong cold front passing through the state Friday set up a weekend forecast that called for conditions more like early fall than midsummer. Highs forecast in the upper 80s are about 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year. But it will be the nights that will see the biggest change. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings were forecast at 63. If that occurs it will tie the record lows for those dates, set in 1923. "This is an UNUSUAL PATTERN we are in. There's a large trough in the northeast part of the country, which has the jet stream in a fall-like pattern. Usually, we don't see these cold fronts make it this far south." The average high this time of year for the Montgomery area is 93, and the average low is 71. Along with the cooler temperatures, humidity levels also will take a big dip.

CANADA - One would have to go back to the 1800s to find summer weather as BIZARRE as this year’s. The dry conditions and cooler temperatures are creating problems for farmers in Chatham-Kent. As of Thursday there were only 5.4 millimetres of precipitation this month — compared to a normal value of 92.8 millimetres. The driest July on record at the Ridgetown observation station occurred in 1887, with 11.2 millimetres of precipitation. This July has been cool with an average of 17.3 C, compared to the normal temperature of 21.5 C. “This would in fact be a record, if the trend continues. Unless we get some dramatic warm-up in the latter half of July, we could be flirting with the coldest July.” The coolest July on record in the area was in 1891, when the average was 18.5 C. The month is traditionally the warmest one of the year. While the rest of Ontario has had cooler weather this summer, Chatham-Kent is unique in how dry it is. “It’s not as pronounced in other parts. They are running somewhat below where they should be, but not necessarily to the degree we’re seeing at the Ridgetown site. The temperature trend does seem to be a general one.”
HONEY, CROPS - "The last week to 10 days it has been very unseasonably cold. We're normally looking at extracting honey right now and plants are just starting to produce nectar. I would say we're maybe two weeks late starting to extract, so I don't know what's going to happen in August if this weather pattern continues." Bee colonies need heat to develop and flowers need heat to flower and produce nectar. Without that nectar and pollen, the bees won't develop as well and less honey will hit store shelves. The lack of heat is hurting farmers across the country. What's UNUSUAL is that the cool weather isn't just affecting one region, it's having an impact on growing areas from Alberta to the Maritimes. Various growers have been affected by either too much - or too little - rain, but the weather has been consistently cool almost everywhere, and that has delayed crop growth. In Saskatchewan, development for spring cereals, which includes wheat, oats and barley, is 75 per cent behind normal. Oilseeds, which includes canola, are 78 per cent behind normal. Some areas are much as three weeks behind. The strawberries have been tiny and not very sweet and that season's about over. The corn is low and the tomatoes "Everything seems so stunted and late and small. It's there, but my gosh it's pathetic."

SPACE WEATHER-
Disaster fears as 'monster' eclipse looms - The world's most populous nations will gaze skywards on Wednesday as the LONGEST TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OF THE 21ST CENTURY lays a carpet of darkness across India and China, from Mumbai to Shanghai. The event is being hyped in the obscure world of eclipse-chasers as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which, due to its trajectory over some of the most densely inhabited areas on Earth, could end up being the most-watched eclipse in history. Total solar eclipses occur when the moon comes between the Earth and the sun, completely obscuring the sun. The excitement this time around is largely due to the UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION of the instant of greatest eclipse, or "totality" - when the sun is wholly covered. At its maximum, this will last six minutes and 39 seconds - a duration that will not be matched until June 13, 2132. The up-to-258km-wide shadow cast along the "path of totality" will first make landfall on the western Indian state of Gujarat shortly before 6:30am (11am AEST). It then races across India, blacking out the holy city of Varanasi on the banks of the Ganges, squeezing between the northern and southern tips of Bangladesh and Nepal before engulfing most of Bhutan, traversing the Chinese mainland and slipping back out to sea off Shanghai. Its next landfall is Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands, after which it curves southeast through the Pacific Ocean where the maximum duration of totality will occur. In India and China, tradition views eclipses with a mixture of wonder and foreboding. An astrologer in Mumbai described July 22 as a "very dangerous moment in the universe," with the blocking of the sun's rays akin to a disease or virus. "If the sun, the leader of the stars, is sick, then definitely there's going to be some bigger problems happening in the world." In ancient China, eclipses were often associated with natural disasters or the death of an emperor, and some similar superstitions persist.

HEALTH THREATS -
Swine Flu is waning, will return in the fall - the outbreak seems to have peaked at the end of June. "So it's giving us time to look toward the fall." Experts expect that as children go back to school, colleges reopen, seasonal flu re-emerges and weather becomes more favorable to influenza, the virus will return, bringing a host of potential complications. Evidence from past pandemics suggests to have a lasting effect on stopping transmission of illness, schools must close for as many as four to six weeks.
Swine flu cases are on the wane across the U.S., but the extent that it has shown up at all in the summer is UNUSUAL. Experts expected the virus would slow down in the summer. Most cases have been mild, though a recent study suggests that the virus may be more virulent than initially thought. While seasonal flu typically infects only the upper respiratory system, the H1N1 virus appears to infect cells in the lungs, which could cause pneumonia. "It certainly is as severe as seasonal flu, which kills 36,000 Americans every year. And it's probably more severe." In the spring, most people who were tested had seasonal flu, not swine flu. Distinguishing between the two strains was important because the seasonal flu strain was resistant to the antiviral drug Tamiflu while swine flu is not. But now seasonal flu is largely gone.

Sunday, July 19, 2009 -

I live in my own little world, but it's ok, they know me here.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
5/18/09 -
5.2 IRAQ
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5/17/09 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 TONGA
5.2 TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm MOLAVE was 109 nmi WNW of Hong Kong.

PHILIPPINES - Two people were killed and two others are still missing as tropical storm Isang (internationally known as Molave) moved away.
Widespread flooding caused by Tropical Storm “Isang” effectively shut down Metro Manila Friday, despite the center of the weather disturbance being hundreds of kilometers away in extreme northern Luzon. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said northern Luzon could expect up to 78.7 inches of rain within a 24-hour period, leading to potential flash floods and landslides. Though no typhoon signal was raised in Metro Manila, classes were suspended Friday from preschool up to high school levels because of the nonstop downpour and strong winds since Thursday. About 28 families in three small villages of Bicutan, Taguig City, were ordered evacuated as water rose to waist level. The waters of La Mesa Dam rose past its 80.15-meter spillway and authorities said they were considering evacuating the surrounding neighborhoods. Vehicles stalled on the stretch of the Southern Luzon Expressway from Filinvest Alabang to Sucat, Parañaque City, as authorities were forced to close a rush-hour counterflow lane. In Baguio City, heavy rains widened by 10 to 15 meters the openings that a June 5 landslide had made on the grounds of a high school in Mankayan town, Benguet province. The massive landslide at the mining town is a priority concern because the campus there is now part of a 10-hectare danger zone.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAKISTAN - At least 26 people have been killed in monsoon rain in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi. Most of the deaths were caused by collapsing walls and electrocution. The downpour flooded low-lying parts of the city and left most areas without electricity on Saturday night, but power was gradually being restored. Monsoon rains wreak havoc in Pakistan almost every year. An ageing drainage system leaves parts of Karachi vulnerable to flooding. Nearly 14.7cm (6in) of rain fell on the city on Saturday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - Two wildfires near a western Canadian city have forced the evacuation of around 17,000 people. One of the fires near Kelowna, British Columbia [west coast], started on Saturday. It quickly grew to 300 hectares (740 acres) and destroyed up to nine homes. A second seemingly unrelated fire broke out on Sunday some 10km (6 miles) away and has already consumed 100 hectares. Fire-fighters said they were facing difficult conditions, with more hot and dry weather to come.

HEALTH THREATS -
A fast-tracked swine flu vaccine will be available as early as this month. "Although many governments and health organizations are probably celebrating this feat, just as they did back in 1976, you have no reason to join in the festivities. In fact, you have good reason to fear being exposed to this new swine flu vaccine more than the swine flu itself. You are virtually guaranteed that no safety evaluations will be performed prior to the reckless unleashing of this untested vaccine, and if history repeats itself (as it so often does), it could potentially be the cause of countless permanent injuries and deaths. Making matters worse, there is a campaign underway to turn schools into virtual vaccination clinics, and children will be the first to be injected with experimental swine flu vaccines. As in the past, health officials are positioning this mandatory vaccination as a panacea to prevent "explosive outbreaks" of the swine flu. But if you dig even slightly below the surface you easily find that the swine flu is often times very mild...To put matters even more into perspective, the swine flu has claimed a mere 429 lives WORLDWIDE (as of July 15), while the regular flu (not the swine flu) has allegedly killed 13,000 in the United States since January (although there is strong support that even these types of figures are grossly exaggerated to increase vaccine sales). So the fact remains that the regular flu at this point in time is FAR more dangerous than the swine flu, and were you worried about the regular flu before the media started hyping up this exotic new "killer flu"? Just like in 1976, today there is clearly a lot of fear-mongering going on, fear-mongering that has a noticeable subplot -- preparing you for draconian measures to combat a future pandemic as well as forcing you to accept the idea of mandatory vaccinations."
You are far less likely to acquire the infection if you optimize your vitamin D levels. As previously reported, optimizing your vitamin D levels is one of the absolute best strategies for avoiding infections of ALL kinds, and vitamin D deficiency is likely the TRUE culprit behind the seasonality of the flu -- not the flu virus itself. (see link for more advice)

Federal health officials are proposing to list the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) as a select agent, which means that dozens of laboratories possessing it will have to register with the government and adopt various security measures. Agents are added to the federal list of "select agents and toxins" if the Department of Health and Human Services regards them as potentially posing a severe threat to public health and safety. The World Health Organization counted 8,098 cases and 774 deaths in the SARS epidemic of 2003. The virus spreads mainly by respiratory droplets, but people also can become infected by touching contaminated surfaces. CDC records show that 138 entities, most of them commercial, currently possess the SARS virus, and 73 of them are already registered. The average cost for a facility to register with the CDC and comply with the regulations is estimated to range from $15,300 to $170,000. Under the proposal, facilities would have 180 days to comply with the regulations, once the final rule is published. The CDC is inviting the public to comment on the proposal by Sep 11, but it says comments received after that may still be considered.

Friday, July 17, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Slow and steady wins the race.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/16/09 -
6.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 VANUATU
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 PRIMOR'YE, RUSSIA
5.1 GANSU, CHINA
5.4 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.3 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.3 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.



CALIFORNIA - Scuba divers off the Californian city of San Diego are being menaced by large numbers of jumbo squid. The beaked Humboldt squid, which grow up to 5ft (1.5 metres) long, arrived off the city's shores last week. Divers have reported unnerving encounters with the creatures, which are carnivorous and can be aggressive. One diver described how one of the rust-coloured creatures ripped the buoyancy aid and light from her chest, and grabbed her with its tentacles. The creatures - also known as jumbo flying squid - do not affect swimmers because they remain deeper in the water. But dozens have been washing up on beaches in the area. "The ones that we are getting right now have a big beak on them, like a large parrot beak. They could take a chunk of flesh off you." A diver and amateur underwater cameraman said he swam with a group of squid for about 20 minutes. They seemed curious about him, and appeared to be touching him and his wetsuit with their tentacles to see if he was edible. "As soon as we went underwater and turned on the video lights, there they were. They would ram into you, they kept hitting the back of my head." It is not the first time the squid, which can weigh up to 45kg (7 stone), have taken up residence off California's coast. In January 2005 hundreds of them washed up off the coast of Orange County, to the north, and in 2002 a similar invasion was reported near San Diego. Scientists say they do not know why the squid - which usually live in deep waters further south off Mexico and Central America - have come so close in.
[As reported earlier - Jumbo squid washed ashore after California earthquake. Dozens of large creatures called Jumbo Humboldt Squid washed up on La Jolla Shores beach in Southern California Saturday, 7/11, after a 4.0 earthquake centered offshore shook homes in the area. There has been no connection made between the quake and the beaching of squid, which were up to 4 feet long.]

NEW ZEALAND - Scientists say they are now playing a waiting and watching game to see if Wednesday night's major earthquake in the South Island throws up more problems for New Zealand's alpine fault system. They say the magnitude of the tremor, centred in Fiordland, was so strong there's a good chance it will have placed more stress on other fault lines nearby. Scientists are now installing temporary seismometers to pick up after shocks, because of concerns that Wednesday night's shake may have significantly disrupted the alpine fault line. "There's certainly a possibility that the earthquake on this fault has actually loaded another fault and made another fault in the area more apt to rupture."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression CARLOS was 1493 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical depression DOLORES was 818 nmi W of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm MOLAVE was 214 nmi NNE of Baguio City, Philippines.

TAIWAN authorities have issued a sea warning for tropical storm Molave and said people in the south should be on guard for torrential rain. The tropical storm is packing winds of 83 kmh, and it is moving northwest at a speed of 23 kmh. Heavy rain will hit southern Taiwan this afternoon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
JAPAN - Ten climbers have died in bad weather in mountains in northern Japan, while two people are still missing. UNUSUALLY STRONG winds and heavy rain struck Mt Tomuraushi on Hokkaido, Japan's main northern island, yesterday. Nine of the deaths occurred on Mt Tomuraushi – eight in one party and one climbing alone. Most of the dead on Mt Tomuraushi were middle-aged climbers, but police have so far been unable to provide details of how they died. The eight dead were in a group of 19 climbers. Four were rescued this morning and the other five went down the mountain by themselves. The remaining two were still on the mountain. Authorities are not aware of any deaths on Mt Tomuraushi previous to yesterday’s shock losses.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - In the space of a fortnight, Assam has changed from dripping wet to bone dry. Barely seven to ten days ago, the state was reeling under floods with at least 12 districts affected in the deluge. However, the last few days saw the weather switching to the other extreme, resulting in a drought-like situation in a total of 14 districts. Many of the districts which had been neck deep in water are now turning into parched lands. Experts said that the manifestation of extreme weather contrasts in such a short span of time did not augur well for the future of the state's environment. They feared it also posed a threat to the livelihood of nearly 80 per cent of the population, which solely depends on agriculture. "This is not the first time the state has experienced such contrasting weather conditions. But what has become a matter of concern is the short span of time in which the change occurred. The present climate is an alarm bell. I warns us that in future we have to face more such extremities."

HEALTH THREATS -
WHO suspends reporting of H1N1 case counts - Citing the questionable usefulness of reporting pandemic H1N1 case counts and the burden it puts on countries experiencing widespread transmission, the World Health Organization announced today it will no longer issue regular reports of confirmed global case totals. WHO said countries with sustained community transmission are having an extremely difficult time confirming cases through laboratory testing. In addition, counting individual cases isn't essential for monitoring the level or nature of risk posed by the virus or implementing response measures. Detecting and confirming all possible cases is highly resource-intensive, the WHO said. "In some countries, this strategy is absorbing most national laboratory and resource capacity, leaving little capacity for the monitoring and investigation of severe cases and other exceptional events." It said it will provide regular updates on the spread of pandemic flu in newly affected countries.
The focus of surveillance activities in countries where the virus is already established will shift to existing systems for monitoring seasonal flu. Countries are no longer required to submit regular reports of individual confirmed cases and deaths to the WHO. Monitoring for unusual events such as clusters of severe or fatal cases or changes in clinical patterns is important and should continue. It added that countries should maintain vigilance for changes in transmission patterns, such as rising rates of school or work absenteeism, and also surges in emergency department visits, which could foreshadow increasing numbers of severe cases. The media and other groups have made too much of the case numbers, which grossly underestimate the illness burden. The downside of the focus on the confirmed case numbers has been that the public perceives the pandemic as less pervasive than experts know it to be.

Thursday, July 16, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/15/09 -
5.3 TARAPACA, CHILE
6.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.3 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.8 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.8 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.

New Zealand escaped serious damage after the BIGGEST EARTHQUAKE IN 78 YEARS, a magnitude-7.8 earthquake which struck off South Island. It was followed 20 minutes later by a quake measuring 6.1.
Waves from this earthquake made it all the way into Columbus, Georgia. The Coca Cola Space Science Center picked up readings early Wednesday morning. They started around 5:40 AM and lasted all the way until 8 AM. The Space Science Center just installed the seismic station two days ago. The readings were strong, but not enough for anyone in Columbus to feel the ground shake, “You could think of seismic waves like ripples in a pond. They are spreading out over all in directions on the planet. They actually come in series and different types of waves, and the very first waves would have arrived around 15-20 minutes after the quake.” Geologists say earth quakes like the one in New Zealand only happen about 20 times a year.

VOLCANOES -
A dozen stainless steel spiders descended from a helicopter into the crater of Mount Saint Helens yesterday. The “pods are small and tough enough to reach places no man dares” to go. Scientists hope that data collected by the monitoring machines could one day help them to better predict volcanic eruptions. Outfitted with precision GPS, motion-sensitive lead plates and pressure gauges, the $3,000 spiders both record and analyze the slumbering volcano’s movements and explosions. They even communicate with each other to determine what data is important enough to pass along. Information about multiple consecutive tremors, rather than one isolated shift, for example, is sent to satellites, which then relay the data to scientists. When will Mount St. Helens wake back up? “Some of these volcanoes that we don’t think of as active can come to life very quickly.” For example, a volcano in Chile erupted last year with only a day or so warning. Scientists can’t predict when Mount Saint Helens will start shaking or spewing lava again, but when it does, the spiders will be ready.

PHILIPPINES - Mayon's rumbling sounds, its crater glowing at night, and snakes suddenly out of their pits. These are signs that the volcano’s eruption is forthcoming. “We have been hearing rumbling sounds, witnessing the crater glow at night, and seeing snakes in our farm just next to the six-kilometer permanent danger zone." But some residents are still waiting for another sign: wells drying up. Right now, their wells “are still filled with rain water.” Other residents reported unusual drying up of wells and they also smelled sulfurous substances. The past few days, wildlife has been restless along the slopes. Five new quake episodes recorded during the past 24 hours. Alert Level 2 still remains, meaning that the volcano is on a state of “moderate unrest” that could eventually lead to a possible eruption. The 6-kilometer danger zone around Mayon and the 7-km danger zone in the southeast quadrant are still off-limits to the public. Mayon has a sustained steaming activity, which was visibly high on Tuesday.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - A predicted tsunami hit Bluff about 10.30pm last night following the earthquake which struck Southland, but its height - 17cm - meant it was tiny. The confirmation of the Bluff tsunami's size led to the wider warnings being cancelled soon after. Conditions on the harbour were calm and "glassy'' and while the water level had dropped, the change when the wave hit barely registered.

AUSTRALIA - A tsunami alert for the New South Wales far south coast has passed with little incident although the State Emergency Service says there were some UNUSUAL WAVE PATTERNS recorded in estuaries and harbours. "Early reports were that several waves came through. Tsunamis do come; there is just not one wave but several and they can last anywhere between seven to 10 hours or even longer. There were strong currents felt up and down the coast and we believe at this stage that there were waves actually detected between, say 20 to 30cm."

NOAA scientists find tsunami “shadow” visible from space - For the first time, NOAA scientists have demonstrated that tsunamis in the open ocean can change sea surface texture in a way that can be measured by satellite-borne radars. The finding could one day help save lives through improved detection and forecasting of tsunami intensity and direction at the ocean surface. “We’ve found that roughness of the surface water provides a good measure of the true strength of the tsunami along its entire leading edge. This is the first time that we can see tsunami propagation in this way across the open ocean.” Large tsunamis crossing the open ocean stir up and darken the surface waters along the leading edge of the wave, according to the study. The rougher water forms a long, shadow-like strip parallel to the wave and proportional to the strength of the tsunami. That shadow can be measured by orbiting radars. If programmed correctly to observe sea surface roughness, they could potentially map an entire tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical storm 07W was 233 nmi ENE of Baguio City, Philippines.
Tropical depression CARLOS was 1493 nmi ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Tropical storm DOLORES was 635 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

A tropical depression east of Manila, Philippines, is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves northwestward on Friday. The system will squeeze between Taiwan and the northern edge of the Philippines, bringing severe weather to both regions.
“Isang” intensified into a tropical storm this morning, as it continued to dump rains on Luzon in the Philippines.

Abnormal June weather patterns across the U.S. East Coast - A surfer's concerns about flat sea conditions from January to mid-February and the current SEVEN WEEK flat pattern : "We deserve an explanation...Something is wrong. Like Eskimos and snow, we have 40 different words for flat and the fish derivatives to make flat rideable. This is not our normal flat, broken up by extremely marginal but manageable trade dribble. Usually the onshore is up by 10:30am. It's been WSW or SW wind all day every day for weeks. This is not normal. This summer is different. Why is there no seabreeze? Why is the Bermuda High depressed so far south? Obviously it's impossible to say when it will change, but could you offer insight on to what exactly must take place (jet stream change, etc.) so we can think the proper thoughts when we burn boards, groms, etc. in sacrifice?"
Over the eastern Atlantic towards Europe there are large negative pressure anomalies. This means that this region of the Atlantic has seen much lower pressure than what would be expected - up to 7mb below the average which is very significant. As we look westward over the East Coast and Florida, we can see that there also exists a rather large region of lower than normal pressure anomalies up to 3mb below normal which is also fairly significant. Also the extent of this anomaly is large with values of negative 2mb out to 60W, extending westward over the Gulf of Mexico. This nicely depicts our abnormal June with an East Coast trough generally remaining in place. We even saw a rare June northeaster that developed early in the month, dumping heaps of rain. Winds over the Florida peninsula average S/SE direction in a normal year. However in June 2009 we saw predominantly SW winds which matches up well with the average pressure field from the displaced Atlantic ridge. Now the question remains: why has this pattern taken shape? One potential answer is tied into El Niño.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PANAMA - Morning gale causes panic. Panama woke up to a darkened sky and strong winds yesterday morning and the situation worsened in just a few minutes with reports flooding in fast. All across the country roofs were collapsing, trees falling and power transformers were blown down as the gale strengthened. But by mid-day yesterday there were still no reports of fatalities. A tropical wave coming from Costa Rica joined a low pressure system from Colombia and caused this activity. The wind gusts had a speed of 30-35 knots. The most affected areas were San Miguelito, Panama city and Colon province, and there were reports of collapsed roofs at San Miguel Island and Chepo. Tropical waves, or easterly waves, are a type of atmospheric trough, an elongated area of relatively low air pressure, oriented north to south, which move from east to west across the tropics causing areas of cloudiness and thunderstorms.

UTAH - Wet June helps Utahns conserve large amounts of water. Salt Lake City residents have saved 1 billion gallons of water in the last several weeks. It's just one of several extraordinary numbers to emerge from a summer of VERY UNUSUAL WEATHER. The result: storage reservoirs pushing the hundred percent mark as they rounded the corner into a warmer July. "It's a real anomaly. We don't think our reservoirs have been at 100 percent at the first of July, probably for 50 years."

SPACE WEATHER-
The heavens have been really showing off these past few weeks -- what with volcanic clouds, blue moons, rainbow clouds, and UW-shaped lightning. Tuesday night was no different. Astute observers from around the northern latitudes of the world noticed a dazzling display of "noctilucent" clouds. They are clouds at the very edge of space, hundreds of thousands of feet in the air. The air is very cold and very dry at that level of the atmosphere, but in the summer time, the rising air from the hotter surface can gradually push a little water moisture to those space-high altitudes (that's why they're seen only in the summer). Scientists are still not quite sure of all the details that cause the clouds to form, although the glow is from simple sunlight -- the clouds are so high they reflect sunlight even after the sun appears well below the horizon from the ground. There are theories that volcanoes can cause them -- and we just had a big eruption of a volcano in Russia last month. Sightings used to be limited to areas above 50 degrees north latitude, but spaceweather.com says the clouds are being seen at lower and lower latitudes these days -- they've seen it a few times in the U.S. Northwest between 45-48 degrees north, and there was a sighting in Nebraska Tuesday night, which is down at 41 degrees north. (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

An ugly scramble is brewing over the swine flu vaccine - and when it becomes available, Britain, the United States and other nations could find that the contracts they signed with pharmaceutical companies are easily broken. Experts warn that during a global epidemic, which the world is in now, governments may be under tremendous pressure to protect their own citizens first before allowing companies to ship doses of vaccine out of the country. That does not bode well for many countries, including the United States, which makes only 20 per cent of the flu vaccines it uses, or Britain, where all of its flu vaccines are produced abroad. About 70 per cent of the world's flu vaccines are made in Europe, and only a handful of countries are self-sufficient in vaccines. The US has limited flu vaccine facilities, and because factories can't be built overnight, there is no quick fix to boost vaccine supplies. Last week, the World Health Organisation reported nearly 95,000 cases of swine flu including 429 deaths worldwide. If swine flu turns deadlier in the northern hemisphere winter, the main flu season, countries will likely be clamouring for any available vaccines.

Britain prepares to launch phone service to supply antivirals - Following a surge of flu-like illnesses, a British system that will allow people to report symptoms by phone and obtain antiviral drugs will be launched very soon. Using the phone service, people will get reference numbers that friends can use to collect antivirals for them. Data from general practitioners indicated that the rate of people reporting flu-like illnesses rose to 73 per 100,000 last week, from 50 per 100,000 the week before. [Are the callers to be quarantined or why can't they go get the meds themselves? Won't everyone call in to try to stockpile these meds while they can?]

South American health ministers meet to coordinate pandemic response - Health ministers from six South American countries met yesterday in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to coordinate responses to the H1N1 pandemic. Besides Argentina, the meeting included Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Ministers said the countries need to share medicine and supplies, and they voiced concern about access to vaccines. Argentina has had 137 deaths, second highest toll after the United States.

Australia and Chile each exceed 10,000 H1N1 cases - Australia and Chile have both counted more than 10,000 H1N1 flu cases, according to reports today. In Australia, which has had 22 deaths, patients' average age is 19, and authorities are worried about a growing number of serious cases in young, otherwise healthy people. Chile has had 33 deaths, and its case count is the highest in South America.

National Biodefense Science Board to hold teleconference - The National Biodefense Science Board will host a public teleconference tomorrow to allow the public to participate and comment in a session on findings from an H1N1 countermeasures and decision-making forum held last month by the board's pandemic influenza working group. Members of the public are invited to call in to listen to and comment on the board's deliberations. Call-in information is listed on the board's Web site (see link).

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Kesso Foods, Inc. of East Elmhurst, NY is voluntarily recalling 8 oz. and 16 oz. Kesso Foods Lowfat All Natural Plain 2% Greek Thick Yogurt due to possible Salmonella.
-Chang Farm, River Road, Whatley, MA is issuing a voluntary recall of Soy Bean Sprouts because of the possible presence of Listeria monocytogenes contamination.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
No one ever says "It's only a game," when their team is winning.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/14/09 -
5.7 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.0 VANUATU
5.4 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Tsunami alert scaled back - Tasmania, Victoria and NSW were under real danger of being swamped by powerful waves following a major undersea earthquake off the New Zealand coast at 7.22pm (AEST). Coastguards, police and fire services were all put on red alert as the potential danger to low-lying and coastal areas was assessed. However, warnings were later scaled back to the lesser "marine" version, with people being urged to stay out of the water and away from low-lying areas until tomorrow morning. They've had minor incidents since the December 2004 Indonesia tsunami but this is the first time they've had a major warning in Australia. A small tsunami was reported off New Zealand's South Island following the 7.8 earthquake. The quake's epicenter was 100 miles (161 kilometers) west of Invercargill, off the west coast of New Zealand's South Island. Residents hundreds of kilometres away from the epicentre reported items falling off shelves, but there were no casualties or serious damage.
New Zealand records around 14,000 earthquakes a year. The last fatal earthquake in the country, caught between the Pacific and Indo-Australian tectonic plates, was in 1968 when an earthquake measuring 7.1 killed three people on the South Island's West Coast.

TAIWAN - The magnitude 6.3 earthquake which hit eastern Taiwan early Monday morning was the biggest tremor to hit the country in 22 months.

VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - The activity of the Volcan Arenal during the past week or so has not only attracted national and foreign tourists to the La Fortuna de San Carlos, but also visitors from the outer world. Reports of unidentified flying objects (UFO's) have been pouring, according to a ufologist who is investigating the latest reports. He insists that visits by extraterrestrials to the volcano are common and that the recent increase in reports is due to the increased interest in the volcano due to its recent activity. (UFO? volcano photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 07W was 362 nmi NE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Hurricane CARLOS was 1353 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm DOLORES was 572 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

While most of the Atlantic basin remained quiet on Tuesday, some forecasters said a large tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic appeared to be slowly organizing into what could become the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season's next tropical depression or first storm. "Several forecast models do now suggest that some development will take place with the wave over the next few days. The bottom line is that while conditions are not ideal, this is the first wave in a couple weeks that has had any chance of developing...Once you get to the middle of July, you start to see the wave activity become a little more active, and the waves that come off Africa have a better chance to develop because the water is now warm enough between the Atlantic and the Caribbean to support the waves. Prior to mid-July the water is just too cool there, so they all just sputter and die. These waves start to come off about every three days now. We'll start to see more activity going forward from this point on, which is normal, just from a climatologically typical pattern." There has been one tropical depression so far this season. The first named storm of the season will be Ana.

After a period of weakening on Sunday, Tropical Storm Carlos, formerly a hurricane, re-strengthened Tuesday over the open waters of the Pacific.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
The reports of RECORD COLD keep coming in from all over the world. Yesterday we learned that New York City is having ONE OF ITS COOLEST SUMMERS IN HISTORY, and they have yet to get above 85 degrees…the first time since the early 1900s. There was RECORD COLD IN MINNESOTA on Monday when International Falls hit 35 degrees. On July 7th, Portland, Maine had a high of only 58 degrees. Not only was that the COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THAT DATE, 58 degrees is the normal low temperature for July 7th in Portland. In addition, 4 of the first 8 days of the month had RECORD COLD in that city. Cincinnati, Ohio set records on July 1st and 2nd for the COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES EVER on those days (69 and 70 respectively). Outside the United States there has been RECORD COLD in New Zealand and southern Peru in May and June.
Above the ground, natural pollutants are limiting incoming solar radiation over land and ocean areas. Between volcanoes (Redoubt and Sarychev recently) spewing sulfur dioxide high into the atmosphere, turning into sun-reflecting sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere, and the persistence of dust blowing west from the African continent over the Atlantic Ocean (also reflecting sunlight back to space), we’re seeing reduced heating over large portions of the planet. Between the African dust, which limits tropical development, many areas of the Atlantic Ocean have been running slightly below normal in temperature. Remember, global warming is supposed to be making hurricanes larger, more violent and we’re supposed to be seeing more of them…yet global tropical cyclone activity over the past 4 or 5 years is at levels not seen since the 1970s.
The WEAKEST SUN IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS is trying to get active, but without success. There is debate as to whether the next solar cycle has started or not, but one thing is clear…if it has started, it’s the weakest and least visible start to a solar cycle in history! A weaker sun leads to less heating energy reaching the Earth, and a weaker shield around the solar system allowing more Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) into our atmosphere…and studies show that those GCRs may be tied to increased low-cloud development. Not only that, but the longer term effect will be cooler oceans and land areas that will stay cooler for longer periods of time. Have you noticed that the hottest part of the day is not at the same time when the sun is directly overhead or that the hottest time of the year is a good 30 to 60 days after the longest days (in June in the Northern Hemisphere)? There is a delay from the time the sun's energy reaches the planet to the time it becomes the heat we feel. The effects of a weaker sun may last years, or decades (or centuries in the Little Ice Age). We have only begun to cool...Add the weaker sun to nature’s pollution and now we have a more significant reduction in planetary heating. Add that to entire ocean basins running (on average) cooler than normal. Add that to the RECORD ANTARCTIC ICE COVER and recently and rapidly increasing ice in the Arctic, and the stories of building glaciers in many parts of the world and reports of crop growth being stunted by cold and diseases that favor colder weather (Late Blight). Add all of that to the RECORD COLD BEING REPORTED ON EVERY CONTINENT over the past year and the evidence is clear. If man is warming the planet, nature isn’t letting us prove it!

WEST VIRGINIA - The first half of July has felt a little cooler than normal, because they're seeing temperatures about three degrees below what they see in a typical July. "The highest reading we've had so far this month was 87 (degrees) and that was on the 10th of July. We had one day back on the 2nd when we had a lot of clouds and a little bit of rain around where temperatures actually stayed in the 60s all day." Monday night into Tuesday morning of this week, they nearly broke a record low. "In Charleston, the record low was 53. So we only missed the record low last night [Monday] by one degree. That record low was set back in 1903. So you're talking about a 106 year old record that we almost broke." The cool temps can be blamed on an UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. "We actually have an area of low pressure at higher levels sitting up over eastern Canada and it occasionally drops down into the Great Lakes. That's actually given us instead of a southwesterly flow, a northwesterly flow. That is helping to keep some of the cooler, dryer air from the north pushing in here every couple of days...We're getting the heat in the West. We're getting the cooler air here in the East...Temperatures should stay fairly mild and cool for this time of the year."

CANADA - Environment Canada reported Tuesday that the average temperature so far for July is 17.8 degrees in Ottawa. The lowest average recorded for all of July since 1938 is 17.9, set in 1992. The low overnight was expected to HIT A RECORD 8 C. This is a stone's throw from frost. This is not a July temperature. In a typical spring and summer, there are 10 days when the Ottawa-area surpasses 30 degrees. So far, they've had two: 30.7 on June 24 and 33.8 on June 25. By 30-year average, July normally has about five days when the mercury beats 30. So far, they've had none, with 27 degrees being the peak. "The weather has just been unreal, and the way it changes all the time -- one minute, it's sunny. The next minute, there's a downpour." If you didn't have a calendar, seriously, you wouldn't know it was July. The sky looks like an old gym sock, with the odd hole here and there.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - It was THE WARMEST JUNE SINCE 1982 in Chilliwack and the DRIEST SINCE 1965, with precipitation levels 71 per cent below normal. The month began with a heat wave -- three or more consecutive days where the temperature is at least 32 C -- and BROKE TWO ALL-TIME RECORDS. On June 3, the mercury hit 34.4 C (13.4 degrees above normal), which broke the 32.6 C previous high for that date set in 1989. Then June 4 it continued as the day peaked at 34.5 C (14 degrees above normal) exceeding the previous record high of 31.5 C in 1978 and 1989. On those two days NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN around the province. The early high temperatures meant strawberries were early and ended very quickly. For blueberries the hot weather is a good thing. Overall the cold winter delayed things and then the warm spring meant that crops came in too fast. "The problem is that it is so hot and so they ripen too quickly. You end up with 50 acres of something that is ripe, and we don't have the labour. It is a big issue. We ended up having a field of peas, for example, and not harvesting them." As for the crop that Chilliwack is best known for, the high temperatures are just what the corn needs, and already the barns are up and booming.

ALGERIA - Heatwave - Several departments in the country (centre, east and south) will record temperatures between 41 and 50°C during the next 48 hours and until next Wednesday.

SPAIN - Some twenty provinces in central and eastern Spain are still on heatwave alert, with Granada and Jaen seeing temperatures of 40º and many areas experiencing 38 or 39º. The Spanish met office has issued amber warnings for both these provinces as well as for Toledo and Zaragoza.

The entire southern hemisphere’s pattern is very much in a state of flux. Major anticyclonic cores continue their tracks generally farther south [5 degrees] than their expected path. Their southward extensions, ridges of high pressure, frequently stretch into polar zones, linking readily with Antarctic anticyclones. This weather pattern is not unknown, but the regularity with which this is recurring is QUITE EXTRAORDINARY. In the same irregular boat, the isobar readings of 1035hPa to 1040hPa for the main cores and 1028hPa on the edge of Antarctica, are EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH. These are air pressures normally associated with summer [it is winter in the southern hemisphere] and more specifically during La Nina events. Polar pressures are usually lower because there the air columns are so much thinner. Lower air pressure also prevents anticyclones of any substantial intensity forming. When they break away from the polar core and progress northeastwards, then as they reach broader latitudes, their intensity increases as they merge with anticyclonic cores based in the sub-tropical high pressure belt.
Also in the irregularity column, anticyclonic cores on the tropical side are showing barometric pressure values well below normal. Some marked anticyclones have core pressures well below 1020hPa. An immediate result is that the trade winds are reduced and the ability to push colder surface water into the equatorial zone is similarly diminished. Where the Pacific is concerned, this is creating an El Nino scenario with sea surface temperatures currently more than 0.5 degrees C above normal.
The rapid movement of the cold anticyclones far south of Africa denies the ability for cold air to extend too far to the north, before being swept away as the whole airmass departs eastward. In Namibia on Monday, a band of very thick Cirrus cloud crossed the skies with some UNUSUAL FEATURES: depth of cloud, precipitation, virga [streaks or wisps of precipitation that taper down from clouds] and, occasionally, a halo that could be discerned. The moisture in this air mass which crossed the coast Monday night, at many places was present as fog. Inland and across Namibia, fog is AS GOOD AS UNKNOWN. Generally, the air is too dry, or if invaded by moister air, is able to absorb this moisture without condensing into cloud or cloud-on-the-surface, i.e. fog. The middle months of the calendar year usually provide a climate of clear skies, moderate daytime temperatures, chilly nights and an absence of rain. But lately, there is an astonishing departure from this normal for the middle months. Although there are occasions on record of rain in June, this month has witnessed events far removed from the normal range. CLIMATE STANDARDS ARE SETTING NEW LIMITS: PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN. Clouds, present both day and night, feature patterns much more at home during the summer and, by their very presence, indicate that air-flow patterns are drawing on air-mass sources usually inaccessible at this time of year. Rainfall was observed on various days during June, across a wide range of the country, but with scant influence from the normal winter patterns which provide rain. It is as if the weather time-machine has suffered a hiccup and the reset has not caught up with the month. At least, for southern Africa, the impression gained is that despite the winter season, the air-flow patterns still have one foot in summertime Cloud patterns indicate an input of tropical air, occasional showers have materialized and the input source, from streamline patterns, originates from the Gulf of Guinea area. The ability, particularly in the warmer months, for tropical air to link with passing temperate cold front systems has been identified for many years now, but the current occurrences now show this tropical flow, but very indistinct cold-front linkage. Elsewhere, the overall weather pattern disposition around the hemisphere smacks of a summer-time scene rather than that of mid-winter. UNUSUAL WEATHER YEAR 2009 at work again.

HEALTH THREATS -
Latest bird flu news from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy.
HealthMap - Global disease alert map.
SWINE FLU BREAKING NEWS

AUSTRALIA'S swine flu cases have reached 10,387, more than 10 per cent of the global total confirmed by the World Health Organisation.

Novel flu hits dozens at Air Force Academy - The US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs has confirmed that 67 incoming cadets have tested positive for pandemic H1N1 influenza and that a total of 121 incoming freshmen with flulike symptoms are being quarantined in a separate dorm. The students are among about 1,300 who recently reported to the academy for their first weeks of military training.

Nurses file complaint against hospital over protective gear - Nurses at a hospital in Vallejo, California, filed a complaint today alleging that their facility hasn't supplied them with adequate masks for caring for patients with pandemic H1N1 influenza. Ten nurses reportedly got sick after treating three patients with novel flu infections.

Five thousand surgeries were postponed in Chile last week to free up hospital beds for patients with H1N1 flu. The number of delayed procedures could rise to 20,000 over the next few weeks as the country continues to battle the pandemic. As of the last World Health Organization update on Jul 6, Chile had 7,376 H1N1 cases and 14 deaths.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009 -

Regular naps prevent old age ... especially if you take them while driving.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
7/13/09 -
5.9 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
6.3 TAIWAN REGION

CHINA - A fresh aftershock jolted China's southwest Monday, three days after an earthquake in the same area killed one person, injured hundreds and directly affected two million people. The magnitude 4.9 aftershock struck a minute after midnight (1601 GMT) and was centred 95 kilometres (60 miles) east northeast of the tourist city of Dali in Yao'an county, a mountainous area of remote Yunnan province.

CALIFORNIA - Jumbo squid wash ashore after earthquake. Dozens of large creatures called Jumbo Humboldt Squid washed up on La Jolla Shores beach in Southern California Saturday, 7/11, after a 4.0 earthquake centered offshore shook homes in the area. Residents tried to toss them back into the water before seagulls pecked away. There has been no connection made between the quake and the beaching of squid, which were up to 4 feet long, so for now the whole thing's a mystery.

VOLCANOES -
The night skies over Britain will turn a deep shade of crimson this week as the fallout from a Russian volcano blast hits the UK. Millions of tonnes of dust, ash and sulphur dioxide were thrown up to 30 miles into the air when Sarychev Peak on Matua Island in the Kuril Archipelago erupted last month. The blast created what experts call a ‘volcanic aerosol’ - a colourful mixture of ash and sulphur compounds - in the stratosphere. This scatters an invisible blue which, when mixed with the red light of the setting sun, produces a ‘volcanic lavender’, or vivid crimson/violet hue. Strong winds blew the soaring plume more than 2,000 miles across the northern hemisphere before its effects were noticed in Britain last Thursday. The RARE phenomenon has been caught on camera. Meteorologists say the sunset spectacle will last for several days, but will only be visible on clear evenings. It will then continue on its journey across the Atlantic and into the skies above North America. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 06W was 142 nmi WNW of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression CARLOS was 1260 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

INDIA - Five incidents of tigers straying into villages in the Sundarbans in the last six weeks have caused concern among the officials of the Forest Department. Opinions differ on whether cyclone Aila was responsible for the behaviour of the tigers. “We have seen that incidents of [tigers] straying have occurred wherever embankments were breached. It is possible that the tigers may have become disoriented as the forests lie inundated, and drifted towards the villages.” 11 such incidents occurred in 2006-07. The number rose to 13 the following year. In the six weeks since the cyclone struck the region, tigers have entered inhabited areas five times. The Principal Conservator of Forests denied that these occurrences were connected to the cyclone. “Instances of tigers straying into inhabited areas during the monsoon are observed every year. They are being noticed this year because of the cyclone." While the straying of tigers might be unrelated to the cyclone, chances of man-animal conflict increasing in its aftermath were highly likely. “After Aila, people have lost their livelihood, so are encroaching into the forests in increasing numbers." This is true of a fisherman who was killed and carried off by a tiger last week while fishing with others in Jharkhali. The fishermen allegedly entered the restricted area of the forest because of poor catches elsewhere. “While the cyclone could be one of the probable reason for these attacks, it is difficult to know for sure. A calamity of this kind hasn't happened in a long time, so we can’t even rely on past experiences."

Tropical Storm Carlos steering south of Hawaii for now. Carlos was named a hurricane on Saturday when its winds increased to near 80 mph (128 kph). But it has defied expectations of turning into a strong hurricane as it continues moving to the west. After briefly turning into a hurricane, Carlos steadily weakened over the last couple of days though now appears to be gathering itself together again. The storm is still navigating through moderately warm sea surface temperatures - warm enough to sustain a tropical system though encountering some upper level shear as it continues to approach the Hawaiian Islands. On its current path, it appears Carlos will track just south of the island chain, possibly extending some tropical storm force winds close to the south shore of Hawaii should its path wobble a little more northwestward, but not expected at this time. At this point the only effects appear to be large surf and increased moisture/thundershowers are possible as this system passes south of Hawaii. But if the ODD STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING of Carlos is any indication so far, this is a system that will need to be watched daily if you have plans in the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Concidentally, another tropical system to the east of Carlos will likely form into the next tropical storm of the season soon. (projected path map)

TAIWAN - The Central Weather Bureau issued an alert for extremely heavy to torrential rain and strong winds yesterday to residents of eastern and southeastern regions as a tropical low-pressure system approached. The bureau said the low-pressure system was close to becoming a tropical storm early yesterday morning. The front made landfall in Taitung at 3:15pm. Statistics from the bureau’s observation station in Taitung showed that average wind speeds hit 62kph to 74kph. The bureau forecast that the low-pressure system would weaken after making landfall, adding that it may also leave Taiwan off the west coast. The bureau said heavy rain and strong winds brought by the system would continue to affect eastern and southern regions.

VIETNAM - Tropical storm Soudeler hit the northern coastal province of Quang Ninh and Hai Phong city, then weakened into a tropical depression on July 12. However, it still poses a threat of landslides. Mountainous provinces have been warned of possible flash floods and landslides. All northern provinces, especially coastal localities, were ordered to be well prepared for the storm in order to minimise losses and damage caused by the expected floods. Another tropical depression has appeared in the country’s territorial waters off Luzon Island, northeast of the Philippines.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDIA - The India Meteorological Department has said that the monsoon trough across the plains of northwest India has shifted north (of normal), which signals a weakening of rain-enabling conditions. But the IMD hastened to add that the trough would shift back south (to align along the normal) to coincide with the expected formation of a long-awaited low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal by Tuesday. This low-in-the-making has spooked forecasters the world over for much longer than the country can possibly endure, triggering near-drought-like conditions already over northwest India. Not even a single globally acclaimed forecaster has been able to convincingly argue a case for this all-important ‘low,’ which could seal the fate of the monsoon. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has been deferring its outlook for the ‘low’ repeatedly over the last few days. Its latest prediction gives July 16 as a likely date for a cyclogenesis. The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services too shows a system formation around this time with a likely north-northwest track from somewhere around the Andhra Pradesh coast. But this has only VERY RARE precedence, since such a track is normally reserved for those systems retaining strength at least until Madhya Pradesh as it tracks upcountry. The only redeeming factor has been that the strength of the flows over Arabian Sea have been sustained thus far, ensuring critically-needed rains for central India, the west coast and peninsular India. A preparatory upper air cyclonic circulation lies over the coastal areas of West Bengal and the adjoining north Bay. This system would have to descend to lower levels to set up the ‘low’. And this can prove tricky, given that such upper air circulations have gone astray on more than once occasion in the recent past due to lack of enabling ‘spin’ and poor consolidation in the lower levels.

El Niño, the warming of the Pacific Ocean that creates chaos in global weather patterns, is on its way back, threatening droughts, floods, crop failure and social unrest. The surface of tropical waters across the eastern Pacific has warmed roughly 1C (1.8F) above normal and is still rising. Further down, some 150 meters (500ft) below the surface, the waters are heating up - by around 4C (7.2F). “We’re also seeing a link between the ocean and the atmosphere, with Indonesia tending to dry out as tropical rainfall shifts towards the international dateline in mid-Pacific.” The implications are severe, not just for climate but for the effects on food, water supplies and other commodities. Australia, still recovering from its worst drought in a century, will be hit again if the rains fail to nourish its wheat belt. Indonesia is one of the world’s biggest producers of palm oil - a basic source of income for many of its poor - and a drought would hit this commodity hard. Farming in India is already suffering from an abnormal monsoon, which scientists think could be related to the emerging El Niño. The rains arrived early but stalled. They picked up speed again only last week and covered the whole of the country, although rainfall is far lower than normal. There are fears that, if the rains do not improve, water shortages will kill crops and lead to soaring food prices. Shortages and food prices caused riots all over the world in 2008, from western Africa to Mexico, Uzbekistan, Haiti and Egypt, as well as consumer protests in Europe and panic in food-importing countries. Rice-producing nations were urged to stop hoarding supplies as stocks fell to their lowest levels for 30 years. The emerging El Niño is expected to continue strengthening over the next few months and reach a peak during the northern hemisphere’s winter. However, every bout of El Niño is different and much depends on the extent to which the Pacific warms up. Early signs suggest that it could become a moderate-to-strong episode. El Niños are still something of a mystery. They recur every few years and vary hugely in strength but no one entirely understands why. When a severe one does strike it unhinges weather patterns across the Pacific and beyond, leading to drought in some areas and heavy rains in others, such as the western coast of South America. There are, however, some benefits to El Niño, especially in the US. It tends to kill off hurricanes in the Atlantic, bring welcome rainfall to the arid southwest, a milder winter across the north, and a reduced risk of wildfires in Florida.

IRAQ - Below-average rainfall and insufficient water in the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have left Iraq bone dry for a second straight year, wrecking swaths of farm land, threatening drinking water supplies and intensifying fierce sandstorms that have coated the country in brown dust. The drought has dealt a harsh blow to hopes that reductions in sectarian violence over the last year would fuel an economic recovery. Instead, the government's budget suffered a double-hit: Lower than expected oil prices have crimped revenues and the scarcity of water will force Iraq to spend money to import most of the crops, especially wheat and rice, to meet domestic demand. Historically, Iraq has been one of the more fertile nations in the region. A decline in acreage where plant roots once knitted the soil has only increased the severity of sandstorms, which are blowing across Iraq with increased frequency - nearly 20 so far this year. Two people died in the eastern city of Kut, and hundreds of Iraqis complaining of respiratory problems crowded emergency rooms across Iraq during the most recent three-day sandstorm, which many said was the WORST IN MEMORY. Adding to the farmers' difficulties, the dwindling water supplies are suffering from high amounts of salt. This year's grain harvest was forecast to be among the WORST IN A DECADE - virtually unchanged from last year and down about 45 percent from a normal year's harvest. Rice won't be harvested until October, but water shortages earlier this year prompted Iraq to cut its rice crop in half in central and southern provinces. "More than 50 percent of families working as farmers left their villages and went to the city. Lands that once were green farms are now turned to desert." A few months ago, water snakes that had lost their natural habitat along the rivers started to show up around houses near al-Chibaiysh marshland. "The snakes were looking for food and dozens of people were bitten."

Britain's honeybees are disappearing at an "alarming" rate, yet the government is taking "little interest" in the problem. Bee numbers have fallen by up to 15% in the last two years, in part because agricultural changes have reduced the availability of the wildflowers they depend on for food. Disease, climate change and pesticide use have also been blamed for the decline.

SPACE WEATHER-
COLORADO - 7/13/09 - A fireball of magnitude -10 (almost as bright as the gibbous Moon) lit up central Colorado at 2:28 a.m. MDT on July 13th. "It was very slow, lasting at least 5.5 seconds." Triangulating sightings from Colorado and New Mexico, the estimates are that the meteoroid was "only 50 km high and traveling about 15 km/s. The fairly low altitude and low velocity mean this fireball might have produced meteorites."

HEALTH THREATS -
H1N1 swine flu attacks the respiratory system in a more sustained way than the standard seasonal virus, research in animals shows. Tests showed swine flu multiplies in greater numbers across the respiratory system, and causes more damage. And instead of staying in the head like seasonal flu, it penetrates deeper into the respiratory tissues - making it more likely to cause pneumonia. Samples taken from people who survived the 1918 pandemic found that they seem to have extra immune protection against the current virus - suggesting similarities between the 1918 virus and the H1N1 virus. Swine flu is estimated to have infected more than a million people worldwide, and to have killed at least 500.

A form of Ebola virus has been detected in pigs for the first time, raising concerns it could mutate and pose a new risk to humans. Ebola-Reston virus (REBOV) has only previously been seen in monkeys and humans - and has not caused illness. But researchers are concerned that pigs might provide a melting pot where the virus could mutate into something more menacing for humans. However, the researchers, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, stress that the virus at present appears to pose no risk to humans. It has been detected in farm workers who tend the infected pigs, and they have shown no signs of illness. The new discovery was in the Philippines. REBOV belongs to the family of filoviruses which usually target primates. These viruses cause viral haemorrhagic fevers, which cause extensive internal bleeding, and can be fatal. The latest study examined tissue samples taken from pigs from different parts of the Philippines suffering from UNUSUALLY SEVERE respiratory infections. Analysis showed that the animals were infected with widely varying strains of the virus, suggesting it may have circulated widely in pigs even before it was first discovered in monkeys exported to the US from the Philippines in 1989. The researchers said it was possible that REBOV originally emerged in another, as yet unidentified, host. Fruit-eating bats have been suggested as one possibility.

The swine flu pandemic has become "unstoppable" and all nations will need access to vaccines, a WHO official said today. Britain, Thailand and the Philippines all reported deaths today. As the death toll increased, the World Health Organisation official said a swine flu vaccine should be available as early as September and all countries would need to be able to protect themselves. Health workers should be at the top of the list for vaccination since they will be in high demand as people continue to fall sick. Countries would be free to decide on their national priorities, but other groups should include pregnant women and anyone over six months old who has chronic health problems. Particular attention would have to be paid to children since they are considered "amplifiers'' of the spread of the virus, especially when gathered in schools.

Monday, July 13, 2009 -

Your garbage disposal probably eats better than thirty percent of the people in this world.

QUAKES -
7/12/09 -
5.4 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 YUNNAN, CHINA
5.3 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
6.1 SOUTHERN PERU

MYSTERY UPLIFT -
ALASKA - 7/3/09 - 'Uplift' baffles scientists, transforms area beach. Like a giant fist punching through the earth, a 1,000-foot long section of the beach below Bluff Point rose up 20 feet from the tidelands sometime last Friday (July 3) or late Thursday (July 2), pushing boulders up from the ocean bottom, cracking sandstone slabs and toppling rocks upside down. Below Bluff Point, a new fis