January & February 2009 Disasters

Friday, February 27, 2009 -

Einstein was asked: 'Doesn't it bother you Dr Einstein
that you've got so many [German] scientists against you?'
"And he said: 'It doesn't take 100 scientists to prove me wrong, it takes a single fact'.

QUAKES -
2/26/09 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

MYSTERY BOOMS AND/OR TREMORS-
FLORIDA - 2/19/09 - Sanibel residents reported this morning a loud boom and shaking on the island. Officials with the City of Sanibel Police Department said they have received calls about a disturbance in the area and are investigating. There is no information on what could have caused the noise and shaking. “It sounded and felt like an earthquake. The walls were shaking.” The shaking lasted about four seconds and occurred around 10:43 a.m.

SWAZILAND - 2/18/09 - The geology survey and mines department says it is still consulting to find the cause of the tremor that was experienced in the country on Wednesday night. They would only make conclusions after comparing reports from their counterparts in other countries. The Swaziland Meteorological services has since said it will work with the geology department to find the cause of the tremors. "We are aware that there were tremors in some parts of the country and we are working on finding out causes." The frequency of the tremors is worrying. "Climate has to do with a lot of things like volcanoes, deserts, so the frequency of the tremors could be early signs of these things." The nation was told it should not worry as both departments would do everything possible to find out how serious the situation is. "As the meteorology department, we cannot have all the answers to the nation but all we can say is we will be observing the situation. We will consult the geology department on the situation."

AUSTRALIA - 2/5/09 to 2/18/09 - Booms still a mystery - Police are still bewildered by the explosions that rocked Guanaba in the past two weeks and say no one has come forward with any information about what could have caused them. Residents of the area first heard an explosion that shook their houses on February 5 at 8.30pm. The following Wednesday, February 11, a similar noise was heard, although residents said it sounded further away. Police have established it was about 2km from the first one but that is where their investigations have come to halt.

TEXAS - 2/15/09 - Sonic booms and at least one fireball in the sky were reported in Texas on Sunday, less than a week after two satellites collided in space and a day after the Federal Aviation Administration asked U.S. pilots to watch for "falling space debris". There were no reports of ground strikes or interference with aircraft in flight. Video shot by a photographer from News 8 TV in Austin showed what appeared to be a meteor-like white fireball blazing across a clear blue sky Sunday morning. Most of the reports the FAA received came in about midday Sunday in an area of Texas from Dallas south to Austin. The Texas Department of Public Safety received calls from residents surprised by sonic booms about 11 a.m. Calls came from an area from Dallas to Houston. (photo)

MINNESOTA - summer 2008 to 2/21/09 - The enduring mystery of the south Minneapolis explosions rattling both windows and neighbors' nerves has once again reared its head. A new spate of nighttime blasts, roughly 100, have been going off since summer, something that has been occurring intermittently for nearly three years. The last time that police investigated the spate of explosions, in 2006 and 2007, they were finally able to determine the source: fireworks, most likely set off by teenagers. This time, though, only about half can be explained. Fireworks and exploding electrical transformers account for the explained half, "but for the rest, we just don't know. We can't explain it." The most troubling, if far-fetched, theory -- that anarchists were in the Mississippi River gorge, practicing their explosive skills in preparation for the Republican National Convention -- didn't pan out. "It was a real homeland security concern so we were down there in the river with the St. Paul cops, but that wasn't it." Undercover cops have been working the neighborhoods where the blasts have been reported but have enjoyed only mixed success. For example, on Monday shortly after midnight, three explosions were reported and were quickly determined to be fireworks. Two more reported several hours later remain head scratchers. "There's one theory that competing groups of some kind are trying to see who can come up with the loudest explosions down by the river." Another theory that didn't hold was the possibility that some unknown kind of chemical reaction was occurring in the city's water treatment system. Although most appear to be occurring near the river, sound echo patterns have sent the noise across a wide swath of the city along the river from roughly E. Lake Street to Ford Parkway. And they've been heard by residents dozens of blocks to the west. Just as in 2007, news of the explosions has spread like electronic wildfire among residents, who have lit up neighborhood e-mail lists with their accounts of the noise. Last time, theories ran from pipe bombs to sonic booms to exploding gas lines. This time, the theories have run more along the lines of propane cannons and violent freight train car coupling. Police are continuing their investigation.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low off the West Australian coast is expected to develop into a cyclone and dump more rain in the region after recent flooding. "It's sitting off Karratha and it's expected to develop into a cyclone over the course of the weekend, probably on Saturday or early Sunday. It's forecast to be a category two but it depends how quickly it develops - it could be a category three." The mining and pastoral region was inundated last week, with falls of up to 350mm causing widespread flooding and disrupting mining operations. Roads and national parks were closed and domestic water supplies were disrupted when pipes were damaged.

NASA study finds 'Pre-Existing Condition' fueled killer cyclone - A "pre-existing condition" in the North Indian Ocean stoked the sudden intensification of last year's Tropical Cyclone Nargis just before its devastating landfall in Burma, according to a new NASA/university study. The cyclone became Burma's worst natural disaster ever and one of the deadliest cyclones of all time. Nargis intensified from a relatively weak category 1 storm to a category 4 monster during its final 24 hours before making landfall on May 2, 2008. The ocean conditions Nargis encountered created the perfect recipe for disaster. Cyclones thrive on warm layers of ocean water that are at least 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit). As they traverse the ocean, they typically draw deep, cold water up to the ocean surface, a process that limits their ability to strengthen, and even weakens them as they evolve. However, Nargis passed over a pre-existing warm ocean feature in the Bay of Bengal where upper ocean warm waters extended deeper than normal, from 73 to 101 meters (240 to 331 feet). "This ABNORMALLY thick, warm water layer, which formed about a month earlier, kept deeper, colder waters from being drawn to the surface, increasing the energy available to fuel Nargis' growth by 300%. Combined with other atmospheric conditions conducive to strengthening, this warm ocean feature allowed Nargis to reach speeds of 115 knots [213 kilometers, or 132 miles, per hour] at landfall. Had Nargis not encountered this warm ocean feature, it would likely not have had sufficient energy to intensify rapidly." Warm ocean features in the Gulf of Mexico contributed to the rapid intensification of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Australians brace for worsening wildfire weather - Schools and child care centers across the state of Victoria will be closed today in anticipation of the extreme conditions.

Droughts 'may lay waste' to parts of US - The world's pre-eminent climate scientists produced a blunt assessment of the impact of global warming on the US Wednesday, warning of droughts that could reduce the American south-west to a wasteland and heatwaves that could make life impossible even in northern cities. In an update on the latest science on climate change, the US Congress was told that melting snow pack could lead to severe drought from California to Oklahoma. In the midwest, diminishing rains and shrinking rivers were lowering water levels in the Great Lakes, even to the extent where it could affect shipping. "With severe drought from California to Oklahoma, a broad swath of the south-west is basically robbed of having a sustainable lifestyle." They went on to warn of scorching temperatures in an array of cities. Sacramento in California, for example, could face heatwaves for up to 100 days a year. "We are close to a threshold in a very large number of American cities where uncomfortable heatwaves make cities UNINHABITABLE." The warnings were the first time Congress had been directly confronted with the growing evidence that the impact of climate change will be far more severe than revealed even in the UN's most recent report, in 2007. The hearing was also the first time senators had been permitted to hear testimony about the dangers to human health from climate change. In 2007, the Bush administration censored testimony from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the rise in asthma and other respiratory illnesses, as well as the increasing occurrence of "tropical" parasites. The gathering of climate scientists was designed to give momentum to efforts by the Democratic leadership to press ahead on energy reform. "If we don't do it people are going to die. They are going to get sick and they are going to die. "
Republicans argued that Barack Obama's proposed carbon cap legislation would be costly. "I will certainly oppose raising energy costs on suffering families and workers during an economic crisis when the science says our actions [to combat climate change] will be futile." The Republican minority on the committee also invited testimony from Professor William Happer who is a well-known climate change sceptic. "It's still not as warm as it was when the Vikings settled England."

UN Scientists: Climate Change Evidence Unequivocal - Scientists for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, say the group's latest findings on global warming show rapidly increasing carbon dioxide emissions and quickly shrinking Arctic ice. To compound matters, a separate study released on Wednesday finds that the melting of polar ice is more severe than previously thought. 11 of the last 12 years were among the warmest for global surface temperature in recorded history. "In Africa, for instance, by 2020 our projections show that 75 to 250 million people would be affected by water stress on account of climate change, and crop revenues could drop very rapidly. We are really causing major distortions and disparities in economic development and growth throughout the world." Another study by the U.N.-backed International Polar Year program, which found that icecaps at both the North and South Poles are melting at unprecedented rate. The report, compiled by scientists from more than 60 countries, also says that the shrinking of polar and Greenland ice is fueling a rise in sea levels and the potential for dramatic changes in the global climate system. The authors say the Arctic permafrost also reveals larger amounts of carbon than expected that, with further melting, could release more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Temperatures at the South Pole are rising faster than expected. "Just within the last few months we've seen confirmation that the continent of Antarctica has been warming. And it's been warming at a rate of almost 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, comparable in pace to much of the rest of the Southern Hemisphere." The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says if CO2 levels are left unchecked, the earth's temperature could rise several degrees by the end of the century.
Scientists who are skeptical of the severity of global warming contend that there is no way to measure the impact of human activity on climate and that no one knows how much warming will occur or how it might affect the earth. Some experts suggest that global warming may be part of natural climate cycles that humans can do little about.

HEALTH THREATS -
The salmonella outbreak involving peanuts products just keeps on going, and federal officials say it could continue another two years.

Thursday, February 26, 2009 -

Sorry no update Wednesday.
"A cynical, mercenary, demagogic, corrupt press will produce in time a people as base as itself.”
Joseph Pulitzer

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/25/09 -
5.0 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
2/24/09 -
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.1 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE



WASHINGTON - A 4.5 magnitude quake that rattled the Puget Sound region on Jan. 30 caused no damage to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct. But new sensors on the elevated highway showed the top deck shook 10 times harder than nearby ground. The measurements confirm the structure and the fill dirt it's built on amplify earthquakes. Officials fear the 56-year-old viaduct could collapse in a stronger quake. Transportation officials are working on a plan to replace the mile-long section of Highway 99 along the Seattle waterfront.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA - China's monthslong drought has worsened in northwestern Gansu even after snow and rainfall eased the crisis in seven other provinces.

AUSTRALIA - Conditions behind Australian wildfires could last until April. That is how it will be until late March, early April unless they get some rain. "We've just had the driest January on record in Victoria."

How much are natural components involved in natural climate change? Until we identify natural components, and subtract that from present temperature rise we cannot tell very much, how much the man-made effects will be. We can go back to about 1650: All the data, and all the way to the present, if you look at all the data, there is almost a linear change, a linear increase in temperature, about 0.5° Centigrade, about 1° Fahrenheit, per hundred years. It's continuous all the way to the present. That is to say, temperature has been increasing as far as we can go back, to about 1700. This has been happening well before the Industrial Revolution, so we have to consider that natural change. One idea is that we have not recovered really from the Little Ice Age. There was a warmer period around 1200, and then, around 1400, a colder period began. And it was cold until about 1800, when it started to recover. Most people assume that period called the Little Ice Age is over, but that temperature has been increasing almost linearly at a constant rate of about 0.5° C, by 100 years, continuously; to the present. "So I doubt that much of the increase over the last 100 years the IPCC says, of about 0.6°, is due to the greenhouse effect - that's what they say. Well, they assume. They have not taken the natural component; we don't know what they did! So, definitely climate change, or temperature, has been rising. Somehow the IPCC decided that the increase in the last 100 years is due to the greenhouse effect; however, a significant part of that would be just due to natural change. So, even if we spend lots of money on suppressing CO2 release, it wouldn't do any good, because it's a natural change. But changes are still going on. There are all kinds of ideas as to why this is happening, but we still do not know the cause of this Little Ice Age to begin with, so this is something we have to investigate. Even just in the last 100 years there was a large increase in temperature from 1910 to 1940. It's comparable to the range of increase of about the same as what we have today. That is to say, there was an increase from 1910 to 1940; then temperature began to decrease from 1940 to 1975, when CO2 began to increase in 1940! Then temperature began to increase again from 1975. And no one can explain the temperature rise from 1910 to 1940, or explain the decrease from 1940 to 1975. My point is, that until we understand the increase from 1910 to 1940, we just cannot say the increase from 1975 to the present is entirely from the greenhouse effect."

Tuesday, February 24, 2009 -

”You break it, you own it.”
Colin Powell about the entry of the United States into Iraq.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/23/09 -
5.6 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA

CHINA - The weekend began disastrously for tens of thousands of people in northwestern China when a 5.2 magnitude earthquake shook two provinces. No casualties have been reported in the Friday afternoon temblor. Losses are estimated at more than 10.8 million U.S. dollars. Officials in the mountainous Kalpin and Akqi counties reported that more than 28,000 residents had suffered economic losses. Some 600 people in people in Kalpin were evacuated. More than 5,000 homes were damaged and about 200 destroyed. An additional $6.5 million in agricultural losses were reported in Akqi. While that area was still being shaken by aftershocks, a second tragedy took place in Shanxi province in the northern part of the country. A gas explosion in a coal mine early Sunday morning trapped at least 96 miners underground, according to initial reports. At least 74 miners were killed and hundreds injured.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - Monster waves stall ferries - Fourteen-foot waves kept the the two inter-island fast ferries out of service again Suday, leaving an estimated 840 passengers stranded on each island. Operation of the ferry service has been disrupted several times over the past weeks because of rough seas.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone HINA was 780 nmi SSE of Diego Garcia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRIA - Austria is readying itself for possible avalanches in the wake of recent heavy snowfall. In the Ybbstaler Alps, where more than 2.5 metres of snow have fallen in less than a week, there is talk of this winter's first level 5 warning. Level 5 is the highest possible avalanche warning. Level 3 and 4 alarms are being considered in the Tyrol. In the province of Styria, the entire Radmer municipality has been cut off from the outside world. The only road leading to it was closed for fear of avalanches.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

IRAQ - Iraq's southern marshes, by far the Middle East's most important wetlands, are under threat again. At stake is a unique ecosystem that for millennia has sustained a vibrant and diverse wildlife, as well as the extraordinary way of life evolved by the Marsh Arabs for 6000 years. Partially drained by Saddam Hussein in the 1980s to drive out rebels, the marshlands were revived after his overthrow in 2003. Now they are shrinking again, thanks to a combination of drought, intensive dam construction and irrigation schemes upstream on the Tigris, Euphrates and other river systems. The most immediate cause is low rainfall, though it's far from being the only problem "The drought is indeed very serious. The 2007-2008 season was ONE OF THE WORST DROUGHTS ON RECORD, and snowfall in the catchments feeding the Tigris and Euphrates has also been limited. All predictions are that the drought will continue over the 2008-2009 winter, with rainfall levels well below average." Climate change also seems to be kicking in. "We can see the effects of global warming on the level of our rivers, and on the dried-up parts of the marshes now. The evidence that THESE ARE ONLY PRELIMINARY SIGNS OF WORSE TO COME is quite strong, and the government of Iraq needs to seriously begin developing contingency and adaptation plans to deal with climate change."

AUSTRALIA - Firefighters brace for Friday scorcher in Victoria. Firefighters are still battling blazes on Melbourne's eastern fringes and in central Victoria ahead of what could be another horror day on Friday. Conditions were likely to deteriorate on Friday with temperatures tipped to top 38C combined with strong northerly winds and a south-westerly change. "(It's) nothing like February 7 in terms of temperature or wind but nevertheless we're looking at something at the top end of the 30s and in the north of the state the low 40s."

THAILAND - More heat and drought - grim outlook for summer. People in many areas of the country are already roasting under a heat wave of up to 38 degrees Celsius and arid conditions, with the coming summer expected to last to mid-May - and it could be even hotter and drier than last year. Northern and northeastern provinces will swelter under temperatures of up to 42 degrees in April. Reports from December 18 to February 2 showed that drought had stricken 13 provinces. "Although the La Nina phenomenon is expected to trigger more downpours than last summer, rainfall will not be enough for people to use during this hot season." Agriculture will be affected so people, especially in the Northeast, should find ways to store rainwater for both farm and household use. Tropical storms with gales of up to 40 to 50 kilometres per hour were predicted. "Such storms may become a real threat to high buildings, houses and billboards that are not safely constructed." A storm surge may hit the Gulf of Thailand in May.

VIETNAM - Coming temperatures may reach 39C in south. The dry season has just begun in earnest with higher than usual temperatures. The coming months could see 38-39oC. In HCM City, top temperatures have reached 36.6oC over the last few days, these will be the HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN 30 YEARS. In Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc provinces temperatures have reached 37oC. Hot weather generally appears toward the end of February but has started early with RECORD TEMPERATURES. The hot spell has been affected by a low pressure moving from the west. The dry season will continue to get hotter, with higher temperatures appearing from mid-March until the end of May. La Nina, a phenomena which occurs between every two to seven years in the southern Pacific Ocean, has affected weather patterns and will cause unseasonal rains from the first half of March and early-April.

HEALTH THREATS -
Two United Nations bodies warned that renewed vigilance was necessary to prevent the further spread of deadly bird flu in Vietnam, which has reported three new cases in as many months, with one person dying.

Rats spark plague fear in Bangladesh - Scientists warn of the possibility of an outbreak of bubonic plague in south-east Bangladesh because of a surge in rats. The rat population has soared in the past year as they feed off the region's bamboo forests, which are blossoming for the first time in decades. Neighbouring regions in India and Burma have suffered from the same problem. There is already an increasing incidence of disease and fever. Bubonic plague is no longer a fatal disease if treated promptly with antibiotics. According to local folklore, the flowering of the bamboo, the subsequent surge in rat numbers and the famine that follows occur every 50 years.

Monday, February 23, 2009 -

Dame Fortune is a fickle gypsy,
And always blind, and often tipsy;
Sometimes for years and years together,
She'll bless you with the sunniest weather,
Bestowing honour, pudding, pence,
You can't imagine why or whence;
Then in a moment - Presto, pass! -
Your joys are withered like the grass.
Winthrop Mackworth Praed

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/22/09 -
6.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
5.3 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA



TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone HINA was 734 nmi SSE of Diego Garcia.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Townsville in north Queensland has recorded its WETTEST SUMMER ON RECORD, with 1725 millimetres of rain falling during the December, January and February.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TURKEY - An avalanche in northeastern Turkey engulfed and killed 11 climbers Sunday with six others from the group making a miraculous escape. Two of the climbers who escaped death on the mountain's slopes were hospitalised, but one of them, a woman, was not breathing on arrival at hospital and could not be revived despite a two-hour effort by staff. Authorities launched a rescue operation after receiving news around 11:00 am (0900 GMT) that an avalanche hit 17 climbers in the Zigana mountains in Gumushane province, close to the Black Sea. One of the climbers who was rescued form under snow by a team member said that they had been walking in a single line in deep snow when a big block of snow fell on them from above. Officials said the avalanche may have been caused by UNUSUALLY WARM temperatures loosening the snow on the ground.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Dozens of communities - including many already ravaged by bushfires - are on alert once again as dangerous bushfire weather grips Victoria.

Sunday, February 22, 2009 -

All sort of things and weather
Must be taken in together,
To make up a year
And a Sphere.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/21/09 -
5.4 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
5.1 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
2/20/09 -
5.4 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.3 PAKISTAN
5.1 FIJI REGION

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Authorities in the south of Colombia are on high alert after the Galeras volcano Friday erupted again. A loud explosion caused by the eruption that shook the Nariño capital of Pasto occurred just minutes after 7AM. Authorities immediately raised the level of alert to red and again called on people living in the vicinity of the volcano to evacuate. During the eruption of the same volcano last week, locals refused to leave their farms, not wanting to leave their crops and animals unattended. There have been no reports of injuries, even though the eruption caused rocks and ashes to fall from the sky.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone HINA was 734 nmi SSE of Diego Garcia.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

MORE EXTREME WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 35 YEARS - Since mid-1967, we have seen more long-standing weather records broken worldwide for both temperature and precipitation than we did from the end of the Civil War until the late 20th Century. Based on long-term weather charts that date back to 600 B.C., we may be only halfway through a long-term 70-YEAR GLOBAL CYCLE OF WIDE WEATHER "EXTREMES" that began in the late 1960s and probably won't end until at least the late 2030s. The weather has a number of cycles that range from nearly 7 days to 6 weeks and much longer. This particular global cycle of wide weather EXTREMES seems to occur about every 500 years. Since this cycle began, we've seen at least 70,000 WORLDWIDE RECORDS fall that once stood for over 200 years. Since the early 1990s, we've experienced the WARMEST period overall since the last cycle of global warming about 1,000 years ago. During that time, it was warm enough that the Vikings were farming parts of southwestern Greenland. But, 200 years later, the climate drastically changed and the so-called LITTLE ICE AGE brought bitter cold and snow to that region forcing the Vikings to evacuate. In early 2008, global temperatures dropped approximately seven-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit since August of 2007. Sunspot activity has noticeably quiet in early 2008. We eventually see more sudden shifts in the fast-moving upper-level jet stream winds that help steer weather systems around the planet. These global shifts in climate tend to occur with the arrival of the virtually every El Nino, the abnormal warming of ocean waters, or La Nina, the abnormal cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the South-Central Pacific Ocean along the Equatorial regions near the West Coast of South America. Within the last several years, we've seen dramatic warming and cooling of ocean temperatures within very short periods of time. So when will we finally get out of this Cycle of Wide Weather Extremes that's the strongest in about 1,000 years? Since it started around 1967, it probably will not peak until at least 2038 and possibly will become the worst such climatological cycle in at least 6,000 years. Until then, expect more long-standing weather records to fall.

HEALTH THREATS -
Peanut Recall Expanded To "All Ingredients" - Peanut Corp. advises customers not to use any products from its plants. The large number of products and brands recalled already, and the large quantities of some products recalled, makes this ONE OF THE LARGEST FOOD RECALLS EVER in the United States. More than 650 people in 44 states have gotten sick after eating the peanut butter and the Centers for Disease Control has linked eight deaths to the outbreak. In Texas, state health officials said they have taken control of the recall of products from PCA's Plainview plant, describing the company as "unresponsive." Texas inspectors said they closed the Plainview plant after finding what they labeled as filthy conditions in the production area. To date, more than 2,100 products in 17 categories have been voluntarily recalled by more than 200 companies, and the list continues to grow.
Searchable database of recalled products.

Friday, February 20, 2009 -

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.
The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction,
and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
-Lord John Maynard Keynes

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/19/09 -
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 FLORES SEA

VOLCANOES -
CHILE - Chile has evacuated more than 150 people who had returned to the southern town of Chaiten after it was destroyed by a volcanic eruption last year. Authorities decided to take action after the Chaiten volcano erupted again on Thursday, sending a stream of lava down its slopes. Authorities say no one will be allowed to stay in the area, in Patagonia. "Our security team has observed an increase in the size of a column of ash and smoke, with a deformation to one side. That leads us to presume that there is a collapse of one of the cones. This is more proof of the imminent risk in the area. It is a time-bomb." About 20 of Chile's more than 100 active volcanoes are in danger of erupting at any time.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHINA - Beijing enjoyed its third day of artificially induced snow on Thursday after its longest drought in 38 years. The four-month drought ended on Tuesday when snow fell after iodide sticks had been fired into the sky to seed clouds. Hundreds of sticks were also blasted on Wednesday to increase the snowfall over northern China. "The snow has brought moisture to the soil, which may help end the drought." The Chinese authorities have used cloud-seeding methods in the past - including to prevent rain in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics - although there is little scientific evidence of their effectiveness. The snow led to the closure on Thursday of 12 main roads around Beijing.

SPACE WEATHER-
RECORD-SETTING gamma-ray burst detected with the GREATEST TOTAL ENERGY AND FASTEST MOTIONS EVER SEEN. Gamma-ray bursts are the universe's most luminous explosions. Astronomers believe most occur when exotic massive stars run out of nuclear fuel. As a star's core collapses into a black hole, jets of material -- powered by processes not yet fully understood -- blast outward at nearly the speed of light. The jets bore all the way through the collapsing star and continue into space, where they interact with gas previously shed by the star and generate bright afterglows that fade with time. This explosion, designated GRB 080916C, occurred at 7:13 p.m. EDT on Sept. 15, 2008, in the constellation Carina. The explosion took place 12.2 billion light-years away. "Already, this was an exciting burst. But with the GROND team's distance, it went from exciting to extraordinary." The blast exceeded the power of approximately 9,000 ordinary supernovae, if the energy was emitted equally in all directions. This is a standard way for astronomers to compare events even though gamma-ray bursts emit most of their energy in tight jets. Within the jet of this burst, gas bullets must have moved at least 99.9999 percent the speed of light. This burst's tremendous power and speed make it the most extreme recorded to date.

Thursday, February 19, 2009 -

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.
Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin.
Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
-Ernest Hemingway

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/18/09 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
7.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.4 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

NEW ZEALAND - Strong winds and rain are forecast for much of the country on Friday as a low, fed by tropical Cyclone Innis, moves onto the country. The small tropical cyclone is expected to merge with a trough over Australia, and move over the Tasman Sea, while an associated front, accompanied by very warm and humid air, sweeps across the North Island and much of the South Island. Heavy rain is forecast for the central North Island, including Coromandel and as far south as Taihape.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CALIFORNIA - In the past week, Mount Shasta received double the normal amount of precipitation for the entire month of February.

AUSTRALIA - Raw sugar output in Australia, the world’s second-largest exporter, may drop 10 to 15 percent because of flooding in Queensland state.
More than 3000 Bellingen residents remain isolated by floodwaters after downpours of more than 375 millimetres in the last 48 hours.

BRITAIN - The swollen Thames River hit LEVELS NOT SEEN HERE IN 30 YEARS, visiting a watery headache on Chatham for the second time this year. The region’s water authority says the river crested early yesterday, soaking downtown businesses and washing out streets in what experts call a ONCE-IN-15-YEAR flood. The water peaked about five metres above normal — similar to the high-water mark reached in 1977. But what makes the river’s rise even more noteworthy is the fact it was just early last month that it last swelled significantly, to about five metres above normal. “It’s VERY UNUSUAL. (This) was a significant event. It’s one you would expect to happen every 15 years. But the weird thing is we had one six weeks ago.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

GUAM - The National Weather Service has put out a fire weather watch for Guam which will remain in effect until next week. And officials have determined the coming days to be THE HOTTEST IN THE PAST DECADE. Weather watchers say the season is RARE this year as it is only February, and apparently we're having an exceptionally very dry season. The last time Guam has seen such severe dry weather was in 1998, that's over a decade ago. And the heat making the ground brittle is just the recipe for a potential large grass fire. They've already spotted a couple of fires in the last 24 hours. The dry season normally runs until the end of May. And while the island experiences little chance of rainfall, any fires which do get started in these conditions will be more difficult to control, especially during the afternoon hours. The fire watch will remain from Thursday morning through Monday afternoon.

NORTHERN AUSTRALIA is facing a fresh wave of potentially catastrophic mammal extinctions, experts warn. Extinction looms as 1500 species in danger. Australia has the worst mammal extinction record in the world, with 22 mammals becoming extinct in the last 200 years. Scientists now say the evidence suggests Australia is on the cusp of another wave. "What we are seeing is a reduction both in the abundance of mammals but also for some species really catastrophic declines across their range. They've shrunk down to 10 per cent of their former distribution (and) the frightening thing about it is the rate at which it's happening. Some species have already disappeared from more than 90% of their past range across the north." Scientists believe a cocktail of feral cat predation, inappropriate fire regimes and over-grazing is responsible for declines. "It's quite likely (Australia will lose a large number of species) and we've got to act soon, in the next year or so."

SPACE WEATHER-
Comet Lulin is approaching Earth and brightening rapidly. It is now visible to the naked eye as a faint gassy patch in the constellation Virgo before dawn. Even city dwellers have seen it. Backyard telescopes reveal a vivid green comet in obvious motion. Just yesterday, amateur astronomers watched as a solar wind gust tore away part of the comet's tail, the second time this month such a thing has happened. Lulin's closest approach to Earth (38 million miles) is on Feb. 24th; at that time the comet could be two or three times brighter than it is now.

The sky is falling, but it's meteors, not satellite debris, that lit up the sky in Kentucky, Texas and Italy on Friday, 2-13-09. Three fireball meteors were seen over Italy just hours before the lights began streaking across Kentucky. The Kentucky light and sound show was seen over a large area of the state, with some people saying it shook houses and briefly turned night into day. Then, on Sunday, 2-15-09, runners in a marathon in Austin, Texas, saw a fireball so bright that it was visible in daylight. "Meteors are seen all the time. Occasionally they are very bright and lead to a sonic boom-type noise." A spokeswoman with the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, which tracks man-made objects entering the Earth's atmosphere over North America from Colorado Springs, Colo., said she was not aware of Friday's reports from Kentucky. But they sounded similar to what was coming out of Texas on Sunday. NORAD saw nothing on its radar on Friday night or over the weekend and there was "definitely nothing" from last week's satellites hurtling through the sky. "If something was re-entering the Earth's atmosphere, we'd track it."

HEALTH THREATS -
Mental health planning for pandemic - Each state has a disaster mental health coordinator. From stigmatization of people exposed to the virus to maintaining methadone treatment facilities, public health officials need to plan for a wide spectrum of mental health challenges that would likely emerge during an influenza pandemic. Public perceptions and conclusions will affect their decision-making and behavior, which will be especially important when public health officials need their compliance with social distancing measures and other pandemic-related actions. "The more an individual knows what to expect, the more mitigation of fear and panic." Pandemic planners can use prepandemic stages to identify credible and trustworthy leaders who can address the public during a pandemic. The experts singled out children as a vulnerable group. "It's vital to limit what they watch on television. They don't need to be overwhelmed by the trauma." After a pandemic ends, mental health services will gravitate back to face-to-face interventions focusing on those who were most impacted and suffered multiple losses. However, they urged planners to consider public ways to make a mental health connection after the pandemic, such as convening a community memorial on a pandemic anniversary date.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009 -

"If you understand, things are just as they are. If you don't understand, things are just as they are."

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/17/09 -
5.2 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 WESTERN TURKEY (plus tons of small aftershocks)
6.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN



TURKEY - An earthquake measuring 5.0 on the open-ended Richter scale jolted western Turkey yesterday, causing the death of a woman. A separate earthquake measuring 5.4 on the same scale occurred beneath the Ionian Sea east of Greece several hours earlier, but there were no reports of damage or injury. The Turkish tremor struck at 7:28 am, with its epicenter in the town of Simav, in Kütahya province. The earthquake, which sent residents fleeing their homes in panic, caused minor damage. "There are cracks on the walls of some buildings and furniture fell over in some houses with the quake."

NEW JERSEY - A small earthquake has rattled Morris County -- the second in less than a week and the third to strike the area this month.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Redoubt volcano in Alaska still rumbling as eruption watch continues. If Alaska's Mount Redoubt is going to blow its top, will it hurry up already? For weeks, the volcano has rumbled and grumbled and scientists remain reasonably sure an eruption -- the first since a long series of them in 1989-90 -- will occur. But the tempestuous 10,200-foot peak 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, towering above the Cook Inlet across from the Kenai Peninsula, is keeping scientists and Alaskans guessing. On Monday there was "elevated seismicity dominated by ongoing volcanic tremor and occasional small earthquakes." A 3.6-magnitude earthquake 45 miles northwest of Anchorage was "clearly seen on Redoubt webicorders." In the 1989 eruption: "There was an intense swarm of repeating long-period earthquakes for about 24 hours prior to the first explosion" on Dec. 14. Three more ash-rich explosions occurred the following day, with the last blast generating a flow of hot gas and rock down the Drift Glacier. So far at Redoubt, there has not been the long series of earthquakes. The latest AVO update: "Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Volcanic tremor is ongoing and remains elevated since yesterday morning." Stay tuned. The big bang could happen later today ... next week ... or perhaps not at all. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone INNIS was 621 nmi NE of Sydney, Australia.

Winds associated with Tropical Cyclone "Innis" are not too strong at this stage. The tropical cyclone is moving southwest and away from New Caledonia. “It's now not near any islands but it is moving towards the southwest with around 40 knots near the centre and 34 knots upto 150 nautical miles away from the centre.” The largest land mass in line is Norfolk Islands.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - More than 700 people in Papua New Guinea's Western Highlands province have been left homeless after a river burst its banks following weeks of heavy rain.

AUSTRALIA - A natural disaster was yesterday declared in Bourke almost 200mm of rain - more than two-thirds the average ANNUAL rainfall - flooded the town. Emergency services are bracing for further evacuations on the Mid-North Coast today, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting another bout of severe weather. "There is another pulse coming down from the north and that will hit the Mid-North Coast through the morning or into the afternoon. It's debatable as to whether it will be same intensity as before but there is definitely the potential for heavy rainfall." The rain and floods caused havoc on the Pacific Highway between Kempsey and Coffs Harbour, where traffic was reduced to a crawl for much of the day. Airline commuters fared no better, with flights from Sydney to Port Macquarie turned back due to bad weather. Only 5mm fell in Sydney in the 30 hours to 3pm but even moderate falls today could be enough to inundate parts of the Mid-North Coast saturated by record downpours. The floods are also threatening thousands of head of cattle in what is one of the state's prime pastoral regions. The rain started falling on Friday until 5pm yesterday. Bellingen received 300mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday - the highest in the region. Further south, almost 500mm has been dumped on Kempsey since Friday, making it the town's WETTEST FIVE DAYS IN 35 YEARS. The storms have made it Port Macquarie's wettest month since April, 1988, while Smoky Cape near Kempsey has received 463mm so far this month - the HIGHEST RAINFALL ON RECORD at the site. Rains hit Western Australia’s mineral-rich Pilbara region, causing floods and damage to a fresh-water pipeline, threatening supplies. Flood warnings are in place for the Fortescue and Maitland river catchment, Onslow coastal streams and the Ashburton River. Some 353 millimeters (13.9 inches) of rain has fallen in the northwestern town of Pannawonica in the past four days. “The low pressure system is still present and isolated falls between 50 millimeters and 100 millimeters are still possible over the next 24 hours.”

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRIA - The authorities have issued avalanche warnings for the Alps. The recent heavy snowfall has increased the risk of avalanches greatly, especially in the north and west of the country. The risks are greatest in locations above 1,400 metres. Following the deaths of five skiers in the past few days, winter sports fans have been urged never to leave secure skiing slopes. The snow is also making life difficult for drivers. Many roads in Austria, as well as in southern Germany and Switzerland, are now impassable, while many others are choked with long traffic jams. The severe weather will continue to cause drivers problems in the coming days.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Firefighters in Victoria are working to consolidate control lines around five major blazes, under the threat of a return to hot, windy conditions.

Firestorms and Deep Freeze: Climate Change May Bring Both - Global warming deniers keep pointing to snowstorms as proof that climatologists are wrong. But both extreme heat and cold are on tap. Last week, the heaviest snowfall since the '90s blanketed the U.K., disrupting bus, rail and air transportation and costing areas like London a cool billion in lost revenue. Meanwhile, in Australia, a punishing, record drought was worsened by the nation's worst heat wave and worst wildfires, wherein over 400 conflagrations killed over 200 people (and counting), torched a thousand homes. Those who would argue that these are isolated events do so at their own peril. The more time passes, the more both examples of extreme weather resemble two sides of the same fearsome coin known as catastrophic climate change. And depending on how the science plays out, it could get much worse indeed, and fast. Everything is worsening beyond what Earth's greatest scientists have concluded in their "state-of-the-art climate models."

INDIA - Kashmir valley is witnessing warm weather in last few days, an UNUSUAL feature for this time of the year, which experts view as a "serious threat" to agriculture and horticulture. The minimum temperature in Jammu and Kashmir's summer capital rose three notches above normal to settle at 3.5 degrees on Tuesday morning. The maximum temperature also remained five degrees above normal on Monday to hover around 13.2 degree Celsius. Places such as Kokernag, Qazigund, Pahalgam and Kupwara recorded a low of 3.0, 2.6, 1.2 and 0.7 degree Celsius respectively. This unusual feature has worried the experts, who say that such a change in weather is a "serious threat" to agriculture and horticulture in the valley. "The increase in temperature will lead to decline in agricultural and horticulture products this season." Almonds, apples, mustard and other products are likely to germinate before the scheduled time, leading to decline of nearly 25 per cent of the productivity. Earlier, Action Aid, an international agency, in its annual report had said that climatic change is devastating for food production in Kashmir. The agency had attributed the decline in agricultural productivity to the melting glaciers, changing rainfall and snow patterns, and drying springs in the state.

NYC can expect big storms more frequently - New York City's average temperature could rise by as much as 7.5 degrees Fahrenheit this century, and once-in-a-century storms may occur as often as every 15 years, a climate change panel said on Tuesday. "The climate change projections developed by our expert panel put numbers to what we already know -- climate change is real and could have serious consequences for New York if we don't take action. We cannot wait until after our infrastructure has been compromised to begin to plan for the effects of climate change," said Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The report predicts average annual temperatures will increase by 4 to 7.5 degrees Fahrenheit and extreme events such as heat waves, intense rain, droughts and coastal flooding will become more frequent and more intense. Coastal floods that are now expected occur once every 10 years could occur once every three years and floods that occur once in a century could begin to occur once in every 15 to 35 years

HIGH WINDS-
ANTARCTICA - More than 100 people are trapped on board a cruise ship which ran aground in Antarctica are to be evacuated. The ship carrying 74 passengers and 39 crew members became trapped near an Argentine navy base on Tuesday. The tour company is sending another ship to take on the stranded passengers and deliver them to the southern city of Ushuaia. High winds pushed the vessel into craggy rocks. The ship should be able to break free on its own as the tide rises, but high winds prevented two attempts so far.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009 -

Short update today.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/16/09 -
5.5 IONIAN SEA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA



JAPAN - A strong earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale shook northern Japan early Thursday, injuring more than a dozen people as the force shattered windows and set off fires. The earthquake struck as most people were asleep in the north of the main Japanese island of Honshu, near where a deadly tremor hit just a month ago. "I’ve never felt such a big tremor in my life." At least 13 people in the city were taken to hospital after the earthquake. The government set up an emergency office to handle the impact of the quake, which was strong enough to shake buildings in the heart of the capital, some 500 kilometres to the south. "It was shaking a little at first and then suddenly we felt a big rolling feeling. It continued rolling for a while. I walked to the office and saw glass windows shattered at some houses along the way." Television footage showed office floors covered in paper that had been shaken from the desks.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone INNIS was 914 nmi NE of Sydney, Australia.

Monday, February 16, 2009 -

Celebrate freedom today - Insert the pithy or humorous saying of your choice here.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/15/09 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU REGION
6.1 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
5.9 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
plus a swarm of 60+ moderate quakes in the Puerto Rico Region.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Sources of future tsunamis can be predicted after analyzing seismic regions and detecting so-called “seismic gaps” – places, where earthquakes didn’t happen for a long time. A team of Russian scientists found several “seismic gaps” near the Kuril islands, the West Aleutian arch and near American shores close to the Cascade Mountains. Calculations show great energy accumulation at these sites, but there were no earthquakes to release this energy. One of these “gaps” has already worked – the earthquake which happened in the centre of the Kuril chain in November 2005, caused a giant wave. The wave traveled to the west coast of the United States and brought great damage. Scientists developed computer models which allow very accurate predictions of tsunami’s behaviour. However, the model cannot say when the “gap” will release its catastrophic energy.

Prehistoric mega tsunami deposited giant boulders in Tonga - In new research, scientists have determined that seven huge irregular boulders in an island in Tonga were deposited by a prehistoric mega tsunami thousands of years ago. The hugely puzzling coral limestone boulders sit 100200 meters from the shoreline on the island of Tongatapu in the southwest Pacific. These boulders, which have dimensions as large as 9 meters and weigh up to 1600 tons, originated at the shoreline about 120,000 years ago and have since been displaced by a prehistoric tsunami. A team analyzed undersea volcanic calderas in the Tofua arc west of Tongatapu and local slump features just offshore from the boulders and concluded that a caldera collapse was the likely cause of a tsunami large enough to move the boulders. A systematic census and analysis of erratic boulders and other tsunamigenic features along shorelines elsewhere in the world may provide a means for extending the historic record and thus more accurately assessing tsunami hazard.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Floodwaters have steadied in the isolated Gulf of Carpentaria, as authorities estimate flood damage across Queensland will exceed $210 million.
More than 500 residents of the Bellinger Valley in northern NSW remain isolated by flood waters after heavy rain today.

SOLOMON ISLANDS - The death toll from the recent flooding in the Solomon Islands has reached 13 but could rise further as some villagers remain missing.

BRAZIL - More than 3000 people have been evacuated in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro state as of Saturday following days of torrential rains, flooding and mudslides that prompted officials to declare a disaster area. One of the municipalities most severely affected was Itaborai, some 30 kilometres northeast of the city of Rio where 1,000 residents were evacuated from their homes and more than 280 buildings were damaged or destroyed. Meteorologists were forecasting renewed heavy rains for Sunday. Concern focused on the state's largest river, Paraiba do Sul, which had risen more than five metres since the rains began Thursday and inundated several adjacent communities. In neighboring Sao Paulo state the town of Tambau was on high alert over the risk of collapse of a dam that supplies water to the city. Waters that topped the dam's floodgates have already washed out a nearby bridge.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - Edinburgh is in the midst of ONE OF THE COLDEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD, and the icy conditions are set to stay with them for up to a month. Weather experts say that with temperatures as low as -7C, and daily averages fluctuating between 2C and -3C, the city is in line to record its first sub-zero average February in more than a decade. As the UK is gripped by one of the coldest months in recent memory, on the other side of the world Australia is recording temperatures of up to 46C, something which has not been seen there in almost a century. In addition, the more tropical parts of the continent are suffering major floods as a result of relentless downpours. This kind of extreme weather, with colder winters and hotter summers seen around the world, is, the Met Office says, in line with some climate change predictions.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Police have confirmed more bodies have been found in the carnage of Victoria's bushfires in the last three days, despite the death toll not being updated since Thursday.
The end of certainty - When hundreds of small, grey-headed flying foxes began falling from the sky at Yarra Bend in suburban Melbourne, for some it heralded the awful events that would later unfold. It was Wednesday, January 28, one day into the ferocious heatwave that would wax and wane before returning with terrible intensity last weekend. Bats were dying en masse in the city, ringtail possums were falling out of trees in the bush and distressed kangaroos, too weak to jump, were baulking at fences. "It was just unbelievable. The animals were behaving very strangely. We were telling people to leave dishes of water by the side of the roads." By January 30, Melbourne's temperature topped 45.1 degrees. The city's plane trees began to shed their leaves under the stress of the heat. In Tasmania, half the state recorded its HOTTEST DAY ON RECORD. In Adelaide, in the early hours of January 29, the city experienced its HOTTEST NIGHT ON RECORD, 33.9 degrees. Just north of the city, the air base at RAAF Edinburgh recorded an extraordinary 41.7 degrees at 3am. "Such an event appears to be WITHOUT KNOWN PRECEDENT in southern Australia." It was clear that Australia was experiencing "an EXTREME WEATHER EVENT". But few among the public realised at the time, these first awful days would be just phase one of the heatwave. As the nation reels from the toll in the bushfires, climate scientists are trying to carefully assess what lessons can be learnt from the unprecedented heatwave of 2009 and the deadly fires that accompanied it. On the day the bushfires started claiming lives, Melbourne reached a RECORD 46.4 degrees FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 154 YEARS OF RECORD-KEEPING.
While state authorities focus on the crucial investigations into arson, emergency advice, town planning and tree clearing, looming over all these is what role human-induced climate change is playing in Australia's weather patterns. And, critically, how much of country will become more at risk from bushfire because of climate change? "There is clear evidence now that the climate is becoming more extreme." Under a "no mitigation scenario", in which no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there would be between five and 25 more days each year when Australians face extreme fire dangers by 2013, compared to the baseline year of 1990. And the threat would rise quickly. By 2030, it may rise to between 15 and 65 days a year. In 2067, when Australia's average temperature may be 2.9 degrees hotter than in 1990, there would be between 100 to 300 days of extreme fire danger.
Research shows that the Indian Ocean Dipole, a swirling current that circulates warm water off Australia's north-west coast, appears to have a major influence on their weather and can override La Nina. When "positive" dipole cycles send unusually hot, dry winds down to south-east Australia, drought is often the result. The big dry that straddled the start of the 20th century and ruined thousands of outback pioneers, corresponded to a positive dipole, and so did the drought that spanned World War II. The severe drought across southern Australia, the backdrop to this week's fires, has been accompanied by a run of three positive dipoles. Three consecutive positive cycles is UNPRECEDENTED. "As one of the hottest and driest continents on earth, Australia's economy and environment will be one of the hardest and fastest hit by climate change if we don't act now."

Level of climate change 'WITHOUT PRECEDENT' - Al Gore exhorted scientists to "get involved" in warning the public about the dangers posed by climate change. "This is a task for all of us. This is no time to sit back, this is a historic struggle." The current level of climatic change is "without precedent". The capacity to do something is there, all that is required is the political will to make it happen. "All three of these crises, the economic, security and climate all have a common thread, our dependence on imported oil." There is a need for urgent action given the dangers faced by low-lying regions as sea level rises. "For every one metre of sea level rise 100 million climate refugees are put on the move." Failure to act will see a sharp rise in the number of natural disasters. "This has a huge economic impact."

NORTH CAROLINA - Drought experts say all of North Carolina's counties are suffering from drought or abnormally dry conditions for the first time in seven months.

TEXAS - The WORST DROUGHT IN NEARLY 100 YEARS is racking three-quarters of Texas. Much of the state has not had a significant rainfall since August.

SOUTH KOREA - The country has been suffering from an eight-month-long drought since last July, which state weather authorities say is THE WORST IN 12 YEARS. The nation's average precipitation between July 1 and Feb. 3 was 579.2 millimeters, merely 68.2% of the average precipitation during the same period over the past 10 years. The low precipitation level was recorded due to the high atmospheric pressure overlying the peninsula and because only one typhoon had an impact here during the cited period, whereas an average of 3.4 typhoons hit the country per year in the past. Usually, 30 percent of the summer precipitation results from typhoons and 53 percent of the rain comes from rain showers in the summer, but that was not the case for this observation period, which began in July. The drought is expected to continue through May. "The average precipitation in the months of February-May takes up only 23 percent of the yearly average, which means it will be difficult for the nation to be relieved from the drought even if it rains like any other year."

CHINA - The region that produces 95 percent of the country’s wheat is facing its WORST DROUGHT IN 50 YEARS, threatening crops in at least 12 provinces. More than 3.5 million people and some 1.7 million livestock are facing water shortages. Northern and central China have had little precipitation since November. Many places have not had rainfall for more than 100 days. Over the long term, China plans to divert water from its two longest rivers to drought-stricken areas. However, it is still going to be difficult to get water to mountainous areas and remote farmland. Although irrigated farms may survive the drought, rain-fed farms are more seriously threatened. Some places are getting 80 percent less rain than they normally do.

SPACE WEATHER-
TEXAS - 2/15/09 - What looked like a fireball streaked across the Texas sky on Sunday morning, leading many people to call authorities to report seeing falling debris. "We don't know what it was," said the Federal Aviation Administration spokesman. Callers said they thought they saw a plane crashing. "We don't doubt what people saw" but authorities found nothing. The U.S. Strategic Command said there was no connection to the sightings over Texas and Tuesday's collision of satellites from the U.S. and Russia. "There is no correlation between the debris from that collision and those reports of re-entry." The FAA notified pilots on Saturday to be aware of possible space debris after a collision Tuesday between U.S. and Russian communication satellites. The chief of Russia's Mission Control says clouds of debris from the collision will circle Earth for thousands of years and threaten numerous satellites.

KENTUCKY - 2/13/09 - a loud boom, or series of booms were heard Friday evening in Southern Kentucky. Emergency officals had calls from Jackson to London about a loud boom. They were told by the state police in London that according to the FAA, the boom was from falling debris, coming from the two satellites that collided in space. The debris re-entering the atmosphere caused the loud boom, and then burned up before hitting earth. It could have covered a 500 mile area.

Sunday, February 15, 2009 -

"The best way to predict your future is to create it."
Abraham Lincoln

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/14/09 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.5 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

2/13/09 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

2/12/09 -
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.7 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.5 GUAM REGION
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS

INDONESIA - A traumatized middle-aged woman is believed to have died on Friday from a heart attack triggered by the aftershocks of the 7.4-magnitude earthquake that struck North Sulawesi Province on Thursday. The number of people who suffered injuries had climbed to 64 by Friday, up from 42 the day before. The earthquake had damaged more than 1,000 houses by Friday. The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency recorded more than 100 aftershocks on Friday, the largest with a magnitude of 6.1. “Relief aid from the North Sulawesi governor was ready to be sent to Talaud on Thursday. But high waves of up to five meters halted the ship...Torrential downpours also have become a problem in distributing the relief aid...We are having difficulties communicating with the other five districts as the phone connections have been cut off since Thursday.” The Talaud district government estimated that the area suffered Rp 100 billion ($8.5 million) worth of losses. In early January, a 7.2-magnitude earthquake jolted Manokwari and Sorong in West Papua Province, killing five people and injuring dozens more.

VOLCANOES -
JAPAN - 7 more volcanoes to be put under 24-hour surveillance. The Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions will put seven volcanoes in Japan under round-the-clock surveillance as they are likely to affect public life by erupting or becoming active in the coming 100 years. The seven volcanoes include Mt Shirane between Gunma and Tochigi prefectures and Mt Norikura between Nagano and Gifu prefectures. The committee monitors the volcanic activity of 108 volcanoes across Japan and has already put 34 of them, such as Mt Asama, straddling Gunma and Nagano prefectures, that experienced a minor eruption earlier this month, under 24-hour surveillance through seismographs and a global positioning system.

COLUMBIA - Galeras volcano in southwestern Colombia has erupted, blanketing the nearby provincial capital of Pasto in ash and prompting the evacuation of 7000 people living in its shadow. There were no reports of damage or injuries. Mount Galeras began erupting about an hour after dark, spewing "an abundant ashfall on urban Pasto and on some rural areas." The volcano last erupted in January 2008, but it was hard to compare the two eruptions because this time it was raining and the volcano was shrouded in clouds. No one was hurt in 2008 and most nearby residents refused to evacuate, fearing their homes would be looted. In 1993, an eruption of Galeras killed nine people, including five scientists who had descended into the crater to sample gases.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

JAPAN - Temperatures shot up to summer levels Saturday as warm air moving in from the south SET RECORD HIGHS IN MORE THAN 105 PLACES throughout Japan, prompting the Meteorological Agency to issue an avalanche warning. The agency said the unseasonal heat wave could cause avalanches and mudslides in snowy regions, and that violent winds and tidal waves would pose a danger in northern areas through today. The heat shocked many on the Pacific coast, where Shizuoka hit 26.8 and Odawara, Kanagawa Prefecture, hit 26.1 in the afternoon, making their winters feel like early July. The sudden surge in temperatures is already being blamed for cracking a frozen lake in Ishikawa, Fukushima Prefecture, where two people fishing went missing. Meanwhile, in Yurihonjo, Akita Prefecture, a mountain stream flooded four houses as meltwater and heavy rain caused it to overflow. On the northern Pacific coast, strong winds forced the suspension of train runs in many areas. Erimo Cape in Hokkaido was hit by 128 kph winds at around 2 p.m., while Nikko, Tochigi Prefecture, recorded 121 kph gusts at around 11:30 a.m.

AUSTRALIA - 1831 houses were destroyed and more than 7000 people made homeless by the wildfires. Disaster victim identification teams combing Victoria have found large groups of bodies, including one with eight bodies huddled to protect a baby. Australians have been warned to brace for more bad news on bushfire death as more shocking details of the Victoria fires are revealed.

Global warming 'UNDERestimated' - The severity of global warming over the next century will be MUCH worse than forecast, a leading climate scientist warns. Future temperatures "will be BEYOND ANYTHING" PREDICTED. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report underestimated the rate of change. The 2007 report, which predicted temperature rises between 1.1C and 6.4C over the next century, seriously underestimated the scale of the problem. Warming is likely to cause more environmental damage than forecast. Fresh data shows greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2007 increased far more rapidly than expected. "We are basically looking now at a future climate that is beyond anything that we've considered seriously in climate policy." A warming planet will dry out forests in tropical areas making them much more likely to suffer from wildfires. The rising temperatures could also speed up the melting of the permafrost, vastly increasing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

Changing ocean temperatures will force many fish species to migrate towards the poles, hitting fish stocks, scientists warn.

SPACE WEATHER-
A Mysterious Magnetar - a shock wave from a magnetar 30,000 light-years away was so powerful it ionized our upper atmosphere in late January. The question that arose was this: could a major stratospheric warming we saw have arisen from this extraterrestrial source? And, if that happened this time, could it have happened a number of times in the past? The dates don't completely match up. The warming apparently began in the stratosphere before the magnetar's energy arrived. This would tend to argue against any cause and effect. However, a 10 mb vortex reversal didn't really become that extreme until after the shock wave hit. Would that have happened anyway, or was the magnetar involved? Recent videos show the stunning reversal from a vortex to a high pressure area at the 10 mb level high in the atmosphere. Some research has indicated that this change can be used as a signal for an impending blocking pattern at high latitudes. When there is a blocking pattern (stalled high pressure areas that force the prevailing flow to detour to the south) it can mean colder than usual weather because the jet stream is south of its usual position. Back here on Earth, high winds are buffeting the Middle Atlantic states with tropical storm strength wind gusts. The winds have toppled trees in some areas, and there have been some casualties, power problems and quite a few branches down.
The magnetar began a series of modest eruptions on Oct. 3, 2008, but appeared to settle down. Then, on Jan. 22, 2009, it roared back to life with a more intense round of flares. "As a result of its recent activity, this object has been classified as a soft-gamma-ray repeater. It it is only the sixth soft-gamma-ray repeater discovered so far." The object is continuing to erupt and the scientists are continuing to observe it. The X-ray data from Swift have begun to show what appear to be expanding halos around the object. They recorded 68 outbursts from the object in the last week of January. In 2004, a giant flare from another magnetar, SGR 1806-20, was so intense it measurably affected Earth's upper atmosphere from 50,000 light-years away. [If you remember, it was on the same date and virtually the same time as the huge Indonesian quake and tsunami. Coincidence?? ]

Thursday, February 12, 2009 -

"Cars are for societies where they have yet to understand
what quality of life actually means."
Elderly Dutch cyclist

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/11/09 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.9 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.8 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.7 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
7.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.4 FIJI
5.5 FIJI REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA

INDONESIA has lifted a tsunami warning after a powerful earthquake struck near the Talaud Islands north of Sulawesi Island. The 7.2 magnitude quake struck at 1.34 am (local time) and was followed by 64 aftershocks, the strongest of which reached 6.2 on the Richter scale. Fearing a tsunami, the islands population fled their homes in panic, seeking refuge in the coconut trees or on high ground. Nearly 500 buildings were damaged, including several schools, hospitals and churches. Of the 42 people receiving medical care, 10 suffered serious injuries. Thousands of others were seeking refugee in shelters. The Talaud island chain, in waters just south of the Philippines, felt the quake most intensely.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOLOMON ISLANDS - King tides that hit parts of Malaita last Sunday reportedly destroyed 27 homes at various coastal communities.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - A tropical low developing on the Kimberley coast in far north Western Australia is expected to gain momentum as it moves offshore today. The low is centred over the Bonaparte Gulf and is expected to track west over the next 24 hours. The Bureau of Meteorology says there's a high chance of the low developing into a tropical cyclone either late Friday or on Saturday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PENNSYLVANIA - Hurricane Strength Wind Gust Recorded In Pittsburgh. A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms moved through southwestern Pennsylvania early Wednesday evening with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, leaving thousands without power.

OKLAHOMA - February tornadoes are UNUSUAL, even in tornado-prone Oklahoma, but they are not unprecedented. 8 people died and residents on Wednesday confronted the wreckage of homes and businesses destroyed by the unusual cluster of February twisters.

THAILAND - 'WEIRD WEATHER IN SATTAHIP MIGHT PRESAGE SOME ONCOMING CALAMITY.' Sattahip has experienced some VERY UNUSUAL weather, recently. Thick fog has blanketed the area in the direction of Pattaya, while in the opposite direction the weather has been dry and warm. Thai folklore has an interpretation of this phenomenon; local believers ominously predicted that the unusual weather in Sattahip area implied that it might presage some nasty event in this area. Locals living in Sattahip were surprised to wake up yesterday morning, February 11, to find widespread, thick fog totally covering the area along the Sukhumvit Road. It was dark enough to necessitate cars' headlights having to be turned on while driving. The locals were excited because they had never seen dark fog as thick as this before. Many vehicles on the road found it difficult to drive. Bizarrely, in the opposite direction from Sattahip, heading towards Rayong, the conditions were dry and warm and the sky was bright. People could both see and feel the difference in the weather. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

The U.S. president has JUST FOUR YEARS TO SAVE THE PLANET. The planet will be in "huge trouble" unless Barack Obama makes strides in tackling climate change, says a leading scientist. If major policy changes do not happen within Mr Obama's term of office, they will not happen at all, he warned. "The calibre of scientific advice that is close to this man is truly exceptional. If in his first term, in the next four years, we don't make significant progress in these areas, then I think the planet is in huge trouble. Without US leadership, which has been sorely lacking, we will not get to where we need to be...I know many of my colleagues looking at the fiscal situation, have felt that these good ideas might be put on the back burner. That would be a terrible thing if that happened. This is our window, with the science advice he has, with the realisation that these issues are pressing, if they are made second order I think we have really lost it."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
AUSTRALIA - DAIRY - farmers in northern Victoria will need bailing out within weeks, the Federal Opposition has warned. All northern Victoria's dairy produce is exported and farmers were now being offered prices less than the cost of production. Farmers experiencing their 10th year of drought had no debt-raising capacity left. "I don't think we can stand by and watch an industry with 40,000 employees, worth billions go literally west."

HEALTH THREATS -
Even after Peanut Corp. of America learned its products were tainted with salmonella, it kept shipping them to unsuspecting customers, apparently putting profits ahead of public safety, according to documents and testimony.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009 -

"Biofuels pit the 800 million people with cars against the 800 million who go to bed hungry."
Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/10/09 -
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Tuesday - "The unrest at Redoubt Volcano is continuing. Volcanic tremor continues to dominate the seismic activity with occasional small earthquakes interspersed." (links to webcams)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ARGENTINA - A massive mudslide set off by heavy downpours has swept away a railway bridge and swamped houses in the Argentine town of Tartagal. At least two people were reported missing after the river running through the town broke its banks, flooding roads and triggering landslides. Torrential downpours caused the River Tartagal to overflow, with floodwaters sweeping away vehicles and inundating roads. Some buildings were submerged in up to 1.5m (5ft) of mud. Some 10,000 people have been affected by the mudslide and flooding. The heavy rain is likely to continue through today.
The heavy rains come as parts of Argentina are suffering the WORST DROUGHT TO HIT ARGENTINA IN 70 YEARS which is scorching the fields during the growing season.

U.S. - OKLAHOMA - A line of severe storms and tornadoes ripped through central Oklahoma Tuesday night, killing four people and injuring up to 50 others. Winds of more than 60 mph caused dust storms in western Texas that reduced visibility so much some roads were closed.

FRANCE, BRITAIN - Severe windstorms have left hundreds of thousands of homes without power across parts of France and forced authorities to shut down Paris' two main airports while Britain has gone on flood alert. Hurricane-force gusts of up to 140km/h battered France's west coast as the second major storm in two weeks barrelled in from the Atlantic. The storm left some 900,000 homes without electricity late on Monday and by midday Tuesday 400,000 households were still without power in central, eastern and northern France. French weather services were forecasting severe winds of up to 120km/h in eastern France, but the storm was expected to peter out as it moved towards Germany and Belgium. France was still reeling from a major storm that left 11 people dead on France's southwest Atlantic coast on January 24.
In Britain, heavy rains and melting snow disrupted road and rail links and fuelled fears of flooding across parts of England and Wales. There were 276 flood warnings in place. London's Thames Barrier was also closed to protect the British capital from a rising tide.
SWITZERLAND was swept by high winds on Monday night and Tuesday morning, with gales reaching up to 150 kph in the Jura mountains on the border with France.

AUSTRALIA - Even as Ingham begins to emerge from the mud, locals are expecting just one more dry day - with more heavy rain forecast for tomorrow and Friday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - More than a million native animals may have perished in Victoria's fire inferno.
Thousands of firefighters are battling to save communities still threatened by "an inland tsunami" of 23 wildfires raging across farms and tinder-dry bushland in southeastern Victoria state. The Thompson Reservoir in the Upper Yarra Valley, a wine-growing region and major catchment for Melbourne city's water supply, could come under threat. Fires near the rural towns of Bunyip and Kinglake could merge and threaten more towns if they are fanned by northerly winds forecast for Saturday. "We are closely monitoring the weather, which way the wind comes from, the speed of the wind and the temperature." Australian police were investigating fresh arson attacks and looting Wednesday as survivors returned to towns devastated by wildfires that continued to burn across vast areas. At least 181 people -- and possibly more than 200 -- died on the weekend in blazes. Media reports say police fear more than 300 people may have died. In the town of Marysville, flattened by the flames at the weekend, as many as 100 of its 500 or so residents are now believed to have been killed -- a toll far higher than first reports suggested. The fires left 500 people injured, nearly 1,000 homes destroyed and 365,000 hectares (902,000 acres) burnt. More than 5,000 people have been left homeless, many seeking shelter in community halls, schools and churches. (photos)
The weather bureau has linked the extreme heat across southern Australia with climate change. The heatwave has already SMASHED RECORDS in some states, and the bureau says it will get worse. The hot weather is also combining with low flows into the Murray River to create the real risk of an outbreak of blue-green algae. Mildura has sweltered through eight consecutive days above 40 degrees, a new record which looks set to stretch to 13 days. Victoria and South Australia and New South Wales are still experiencing 40 plus degrees and they will continue to do that through to Saturday. So the good news is that the end is approaching but it will get worse before it gets better. The heat comes from a stubborn high pressure system which is pushing desert air over the south but global warming is to blame for making it more severe. "This event has really blown people out of the water. We broke the Tasmanian record by nearly a degree and on Thursday last week 41.5 at Flinders Airport and that only lasted one day. We saw 42.4 in Scamander in east coast Tasmania. You know, it really has blown those records out of the water...we're starting to see the really quite surprising weather patterns and they're becoming quite frequently. A case in point is what's happening in Adelaide. You know, in Adelaide up until March last year, we'd only ever seen eight 35 degree days in a row. In March last year, we got 15, so doubled out record again. And currently Adelaide's had nine 35 degree days in a row. So you see these things which are just SO REMARKABLE one would never anticipate them happening so I guess that's one of the messages. The world is changing, it's getting hotter and we're starting to see things which previously would have been very rare or not happen at all...It's going to get a lot hotter over this century and heat waves become a lot more severe and a lot more frequent. There really is a matter of getting used to it, anticipate it. This isn't as bad as it can get, you know, we can get hotter than this in the south east and the world's going to get a lot hotter over this century so look to more extreme heat waves coming in the future." "There's no doubt that we've got this alignment of long-term change, climate change. And we've got the short cycle, this incredible drought. And they've combined in the most wicked way."

HEALTH THREATS -
Panasonic's pandemic-related move fuels concern - News reports that Panasonic Corp. has asked some of its overseas employees to send their families home to Japan because of the threat of pandemic influenza fueled puzzlement and speculation about the global H5N1 risk and whether other companies might follow suit. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that in December 2008 Panasonic asked employees in some of its Asian offices (excluding Singapore), Africa, Eastern Europe, and South America to send their families back to Japan by September. "We chose areas after considering the prevalence of bird flu and the capability of medical facilities and access to them." China and Egypt have recently reported human H5N1 cases, a typical pattern during cooler seasons, but avian flu experts have not reported any mutations that would make the virus more transmissible among humans, and global health officials have not raised the H5N1 alert level. A senior US government official who asked to remain anonymous said that though the pandemic threat persists and the need for preparations is critical, officials see no increased threat that would prompt any revisions of their pandemic advice or warning messages to Americans living abroad. "If this was a real pandemic concern, companies would have minutes to hours, not weeks to months, to prepare for this."

Tuesday, February 10, 2009 -

The death of an old person is like the burning of a library.
African proverb

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/9/09 -
5.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
6.0 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
5.2 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

MYSTERY BOOMS -
FLORIDA - MARCO ISLAND - 2/4/09 & 2/5/09 - Is it a bomb? Is it a plane? Or is it a sonic boom? Loud bangs have Islanders looking to the sky with wonder. Occasional loud booms had Marco Islanders and others in Southern Collier County wondering what the noise was Wednesday and Thursday. Police officers heard the noise too, but they weren't sure what they were. "Some residents even thought it was an earthquake. We checked into it and there were no earthquakes in our area." While the military may not confirm or deny any jets in the area, residents were reporting Air Force sightings off the Gulf coast the last two days.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Despite clear signs of unrest, the Alaskan Redoubt volcano still hasn’t erupted yet, but the color code remains Orange and the seismicity levels remain elevated.

INDONESIA - Mt. Kelud spews poisonous gas, lava - Foreign and local sightseers continued pouring into Kediri's popular tourist destination of Mt. Kelud on Saturday, despite the regency's warning to steer clear of the volcano, now spewing poisonous gases and lava. Local authorities have prohibited locals and visitors from approaching the restive mountain since it started emitting gases and lava late Friday. The poisonous gases could be dangerous if strong winds carried them into human settlements.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - A large tidal wave damaged 37 houses in Marunda and Kalibaru, North Jakarta, on Monday forcing residents to flee their houses. After January's tidal wave that damaged 77 houses in the same area, the water forced families to take refuge at nearby Marunda Apartments. Some 700 families are currently living there. "We are used to tidal waves from way back. However, this time it was quite big and damaged our houses. Usually, we only experience flooding from the tides." There used to be a swamp near the beach to accommodate the raising sea level. Marunda Apartments are where the swamp was located. "The 1.5-meter-tall embankment is now only 50 centimeters due to the wave crushing it."
High waves and a whirlwind also battered houses on isolated islets off Sumenep in Madura early Saturday. The six islets off Sumenep have almost disappeared after high waves and punishing downpours hammered the villages. "Search and rescue workers from Sumenep regency are still trying to get out there to bring aid relief to the residents of these tiny islands." Thousands of residents of Kalitidu district sat tight in temporary shelters ever since flooding inundated their villages a week ago. The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency warned against typhoon Freddy which is predicted to threaten East Java waters from the Indian Ocean in a few days. "The typhoon will likely move into provincial waters in several days setting off waves up to four meters high." Rogue wave - An Indonesian naval vessel nearly sank after being slammed by a freak wave near Surabaya, East Java, on Sunday morning. "A sudden surge of water overcame KRI Kupang. The ship's captain quickly directed the ship to shore and dropped anchor, calling for help from a nearby ship." The vessel will be towed to Surabaya.

AUSTRALIA - The country's saturated north was inundated overnight Friday, with 350 millimetres of rain (14 inches) causing flash floods in the town of Innisfail and swelling engorged rivers. A tropical low off the northeastern coast is fuelling the rains, which were being compounded by ABNORMALLY HIGH "king tides" in the region.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Disaster officials warned of king tides in coastal areas this past weekend and right through this week that could cause destruction to property and lives in PNG coastal areas. PNG's National Weather Office says high tides measuring up to 3 metres will hit entire coastal areas and warned people not to go out at sea this month. The latest warning comes amidst efforts by PNG disaster officials in assisting three thousand people to rebuild and recover from the December's King tides.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone FREDDY was 1012 nmi NW of Perth, Australia.
Cyclone GAEL was 714 nmi SSE of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy formed over the weekend of February 7-8 in the open waters of the Indian Ocean northwest of northwestern Australia and will stay at sea. Freddy won't bring any relief to the areas of Australia that are being ravaged by severe fires and a heatwave. In Australia's Queensland region, residents there hope not to see another tropical cyclone as they are still reeling from flooding. Monday, Freddy was packing sustained winds near 40 knots (46 mph) with higher gusts, and moving southwestward near 13 knots (15 mph). Freddy is expected to continue in that general direction, where it will encounter cooler waters and a persistent easterly vertical wind shear (winds that can tear a storm apart). That means Freddy's life is expected to be cut short this week. This has been one very busy cyclone/hurricane season for Australia.

INDONESIA - Landslides killed at least two people and thousands of Indonesian homes were flooded by heavy rains caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Dozens of flights to Semarang were canceled after the airport's main runway was submerged, schools were closed and at least 4,500 people were evacuated from their homes. Railways and roads in central Java were submerged by up to 3 feet of water. In Jakarta, riverbanks overflowed Monday morning, forcing more than 900 people into emergency tent shelters.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MOROCCO - Flooding and heavy snowfalls left several regions of Morocco devastated and affected hundreds of families. Freak weather conditions continue to cause devastation in Morocco as authorities struggle to address the humanitarian crisis. A number of people have lost their lives, mainly in the countryside and in mountainous regions and areas near rivers and dams. In all, 14 people have died since January 31st after their houses collapsed under snow and torrential rain. Hundreds of families have been left homeless. A total of 56,000 hectares are under water in the fertile agricultural region of the Gharb. Flooding in Oued Beht submerged around 7,000 hectares of land and 12 villages inhabited by 5,000 people. It also affected 1,900 homes in Sidi Slimane, with 300 adobe houses partly or fully collapsing. The government said the country may not be over the worst of the bad weather and the authorities have warned of the threat of further floods, especially along Oued Sebou. "The exceptional rainfall that has occurred over the last 48 hours (February 4th) has led to significant run-off and has caused some dams to exceed their maximum capacities." Local authorities said they were doing all they could to help the victims. The devastation was much worse in rural areas, where homes are unable to withstand the effects of heavy flooding and snowfalls. The authorities should have taken precautions by evacuating people living in high-risk villages.

AUSTRALIA - A terrified man clung to a tree in raging floodwaters for an hour Friday when wild weather described as a "mini Cyclone Larry" hit communities south of Cairns. Flash floods, torrential rain and wind gusts of up to 80km/h caused chaos from Babinda to Cardwell by cutting roads, knocking down powerlines and flooding some homes during a dramatic four hours. The tropical low pressure system crossed the coast about noon at Babinda. Residents said it was the WORST RAIN THEY HAD SEEN IN ABOUT 30 YEARS. "Chains of lightning just about blinded me every time they struck." "This was worse than Sunday's cyclone (Ellie) for us … the water's gone under the house and the street was a river." The Bruce Highway was cut in at least 10 places south of Babinda, causing traffic chaos as vehicles, including school buses were turned back Towns on the Gulf of Carpentaria expect to be cut off by road for at least another six weeks. More heavy rain could extend the isolation at Normanton and Karumba. More rain is expected across the Far North this weekend and flood warnings are in place for the Tully and Murray Rivers. "It was like a cyclone, we must have had 12-14 inches in an hour-and-a-half." The storm was the talk of the small community, with many locals comparing it to the fury of Cyclone Larry three years ago. Roads were cut, shops were flooded and small creeks became raging torrents as nature unleashed its fury.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - Clash of weather systems and La Niña led to ONCE-IN-20-YEAR event, say forecasters. The freakish snowy conditions are the result of two clashing weather systems. Biting winds from the east, originally from Arctic regions, have collided with a damp patch of air moving north from France. The result? Massive snowfall. The warmer south-east of England, and especially London, often escapes the worst of winter weather, but this time the region took a direct hit because the two weather systems clashed immediately above. The unusual easterly winds have brought Britain a winter so cold it is classed as a one-in-20-year event. "This amount of snowfall is UNUSUAL, and getting more UNUSUAL." The 30cm of snow, as recorded in Epsom, was "remarkable" for low-lying areas.
A year's worth of snow fell in just two hours in some areas on the 5th. Roads, railways and airports ground to a shuddering halt as they struggled to cope with the second heavy snowfall of the week. In Devon the Army had to be called out to rescue hundreds of motorists stranded overnight in sub-zero temperatures on the A38 and A380 south of Exeter.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Death toll approaching 200, almost 1,000 homes destroyed. In fire-ravaged Victoria, firefighters are battling 25 bushfires, with the death toll from the disaster expected to exceed 200 people. The official toll stands at 173 dead with more than 50 people still missing. The blazes have burnt through more than 3,000 square kilometres - entire towns were wiped off the map within 24 hours at the weekend.
In case you're wondering why it's flooding in the north and burning in the south, the Bureau of Meteorology says the prolonged and record-breaking extreme weather is because of a system that got stuck over the Tasman Sea. The pattern has been causing longer periods of bad weather, but it's now broken up and moved away. "It's UNUSUAL to see the systems get stuck for a two-week period, like we saw for the period up to last weekend."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
AUSTRALIA - SUGAR - A significant amount of Queensland's sugar crop has been drowned by days under floodwaters. Canegrowers also fear there will be significant and widespread damage to the industry's infrastructure after a fortnight of monsoon rains and floods. Ironically, as eastern Australia's summer of extreme weather continues, sugar growing areas in the state's southeast are in need of rain.
The price of fruit and vegetables is set to rocket as the full effects of the deluge in the north and the heatwave in the south is felt.

INDIA - GREEN TEA - UNUSUAL weather conditions have resulted in a marked decrease in the production of green tea leaf in the Medhamahanuwara, Hunnasgiriya Rangala and Loolwatte areas in the Kandy district. Very little or no rain has fallen in these areas for the past two months making things worse in the extremely chilly conditions.

HEALTH THREATS -
"Beware of what you eat. You are on your own." - Senator Harkin to Americans, who can no longer count on the safety of basic food items. "To say that food safety in this country is a patchwork system is giving it too much credit. Food safety in America has too often become a hit-or-miss gamble, and that is truly frightening. Peanut butter that we put in our kids sandwiches that they take to school. If that's not safe then we have to ask, what is?" The outbreak could continue because peanut butter has a long shelf-life. "This could go on for a long time. Unless we can really actively get these products off the retail shelves but also out of people's homes." Recalled products now number more than 1,700. The conventional wisdom among epidemiologists is that for each case of salmonellosis that is reported, more than 38 other people get sick but don't go to their doctor or get tested. So this outbreak could be responsible for more than 20,000 illnesses.

Monday, February 9, 2009 -

The only wisdom we can hope to acquire is humility
Humility is endless.
T.S.Eliot

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/8/09 -
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
5.5 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone FREDDY was 1012 nmi NW of Perth, Australia.
Cyclone GAEL was 526 nmi SSE of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FRANCE - Paris airports have shut overnight, for the FIRST TIME IN OVER 34 YEARS, following a storm alert and warnings of winds of up to 100km/h (62mph). Air France said it had cancelled 210 flights, with the Charles de Gaulle, Orly and Bourget airports not due to reopen until 1000 (0900GMT) on Tuesday. The storm was expected to hit France's Atlantic coast hardest, and ferries were also affected. Services between Brittany and nearby islands have been suspended. The French navy has put three rescue vessels on stand-by to help any shipping in difficulty. Sand bags have been deployed on sea-fronts exposed to possible flooding. Forecasters predicted however that the storm would not be as bad as the one that lashed France and Spain on 24 January, leaving 11 dead and causing widespread damage. In England, heavy rain sweeping across the country has left many councils on "full alert" in preparation for floods. The UK saw the heaviest snowfall for 18 years last week and forecasters warn more snow is on the way over parts of Wales and the Midlands. Forecasters are also predicting another freezing night in the Scottish Highlands, after temperatures on Sunday night dropped to -18C (-0.4F), which the Met Office said was the lowest temperature since January 2003.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FREAK ice storm hits Canada - An UNUSUAL bout of warm winter weather turned snow into freezing rain on Monday in western Canada, coating much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan provinces in ice, snapping power lines and stopping travel.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - At least 173 people are dead and 24 blazes remain out of control as Victoria's bushfire crisis enters its fourth day. Rescuers are resuming the search for victims of Australia's bushfires amid fears the death toll will rise futher. Hundreds of people have been injured, some critically. Residents in many areas are still on alert as more than a dozen fires continue to burn uncontrolled. Some fires are being treated as arson, which the Prime Minister said amounted to "mass murder". Detectives have sealed off a number of sites, including the devastated small town of Maryville, as possible crime scenes. "We have had whole communities just completely wiped out, completely obliterated, by what people would describe as literally a fireball that just came over the hills and devoured everything before them. It's the largest natural disaster in our state's history and Australia's history." A record heatwave and changing wind directions on Saturday helped fan the flames, which destroyed more than 750 homes, left 5,000 people homeless and burned 850 square miles (544,000 acres) of land. (map)
The Victoria fires among THE MOST DEADLY IN THE WORLD in the last 150 years. (At link - Some other previous bushfires that cost many lives.)

Sunday, February 8, 2009 -

To see a world in a grain of sand and heaven in a wild flower.
Hold infinity in the palms of your hand and eternity in an hour.
William Blake

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/7/09 -
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2/6/09 -
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.5 OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone FREDDY was 820 nmi W of Broome, Australia.
Cyclone GAEL was 210 nmi SW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Bush fires in southern Australia wipe out whole towns and kill at least 108 people, the WORST FIRE DEATH TOLL IN AUSTRALIA'S HISTORY. Thousands of firefighters, aided by the army, are battling several major bush fires, and the number of dead is expected to rise as fires are put out. Entire towns in Victoria state were destroyed as fires were fanned by extreme temperatures and wind. Temperatures are dropping now, but officials fear they will not be able to get the fires under control until there is substantial rain. "We could still have a lot worse." Firefighters have been battling against what are described as the WORST CONDITIONS IN VICTORIA'S HISTORY. Witnesses described seeing walls of flames four storeys high, trees exploding and the skies raining ash, as fires tore across 30,000 hectares (115 sq miles) of forests, farmland and towns. At least 700 homes have been destroyed in Victoria and about 14,000 homes are without power. Most of the people who died came from a cluster of small towns to the north of Melbourne. Many charred bodies had been found in cars. It is thought they were trying to escape the fires but were overtaken by their "sheer speed and ferocity". Some cars appeared to have crashed into one another as people tried to flee the flames. "We have had no rain for eight weeks and that is why so much is burning." Tens of thousands of firefighters have been trying to contain blazes in two other states - New South Wales and South Australia - but the fires there were largely contained or burning away from residential areas.

Friday, February 6, 2009 -

“Do what you will, this world's a fiction and is made up of contradiction.”
William Blake

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/5/09 -
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

MYSTERY BOOMS -
PENNSYLVANIA - 2/2/09 - Several residents of Bethany, Pa. reported feeling a possible quake at 7 p.m. Monday, about two and a half hours BEFORE a 3.0 magnitude earthquake was recorded in Morris County, New Jersey. Monday evening at approximately 7:00 p.m. the earth shook on Bethany Hill, Old Wayne Street, Sugar Street, Spruce Street and on Wayne Street. Coincidentally, at that time, a large boom and a burst of light transpired on Sugar Street. It was enough to make people come out of their homes on Sugar Streetrush to the window, "and what to their wondering eyes should appear", but a huge flame, a light that shot up in the sky. Neighbors on Old Wayne Street came out in the snow to check their houses to see "what fell on their roofs". They thought it could have been a whole tree that fell on the roof and onto the ground. One citizen thought the plow had driven into his home! A second boom was felt, but much lighter in nature. What could it be? The police responded, but there were no accidents reported , there was nothing to investigate. "We couldn't ALL be crazy! There was a lot of telephoning going on and together with the moving and the shaking, we accepted the fact that we actually did experience a strange phenomenon!" The earthquake in New Jersey apparently occurred on a fault line that runs to Bethany.

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - A major eruption of Colombia's highest volcano, the Nevado del Huila, seems imminent. This was revealed by experts and authorities on Thursday. A fly-over performed on Wednesday showed a large 'dome' of lava hanging over the volcano, which could indicate that an eruption is about to occur. As such, those living in the danger area were ordered to evacuate immediately. "The volcano has a significantly strong dome and we don't know when an eruption could occur." It is however certain that the dome is still growing which means an increased level of danger. The Nevado del Huila began showing activity in 2007, after having remained dormant for more than 500 years. Four eruptions have occurred since, most recently in November last year. That particular eruption reportedly took ten lives. If experts are right, a next eruption could be stronger than any of the previous four. (photo)

ALASKA - For the second time Thursday, "a burst of volcanic tremor" shook Mount Redoubt, signaling the volcano is still very much restless. The second tremor occurred just after 3 p.m., lasting for about 30 minutes, and is continuing at a sustained but lower level, the Alaska Volcano Observatory says. It did not result in any eruptive activity and no ash emission has occurred. The first seismic burst Thursday started at 11:18 a.m. "This episode lasted for about 4 minutes and was the most most energetic since Jan. 30." (2 webcam links)
Emergency officials in British Columbia, Yukon and Alaska are preparing for the possible eruption of the Mount Redoubt volcano near Anchorage. The volcano has been showing signs of minor activity since the fall. In November, geologists saw changes in emissions and some minor melting near the summit, and the threat rating was upgraded. Recently, it was upgraded again and there have been conference calls among agencies to review emergency-measures plans. Volcanic ash has been known to travel thousands of kilometres, but distance and direction depend on factors such as the height of the volcano's smoke plume and the direction of the wind.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
This is going down as ONE OF THE FLATTEST WINTERS IN RECENT MEMORY for waves off the California coast. Same holds true in Hawaii. Big waves just have not materialized in traditional Pacific Ocean locations because of UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS. But there has been monstrous surf in the North Atlantic.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone GAEL was 217 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

AUSTRALIA - Northern WA avoids cyclone threat, for now. Residents along the Pilbara coast, WA, will be thanking the weather gods today, as a developing tropical low looks set to push on out to sea, before intensifying into a cyclone. The low moved offshore on Tuesday and began to deepen as it reached its primary generator, the warm ocean. A cyclone watch was initiated as the low began forming over land and initial estimates suggested it may move parallel to the coast and deepen to a category 1 and then a category 2 cyclone. However, as the tropical low crossed offshore it was too weak to give any more than a normal day in the monsoon to the coast. Currently, it is still not classified as a tropical cyclone, with core winds below gale force. Its movement has been westerly and it is now likely it will continue to move that way, leaving the Pilbara breathing a sigh of relief. However, cyclones are notoriously unpredictable so keep checking for updates. This is especially true for the next week or two, with an active monsoon acting as a good catalyst for growth. (path map)

In the southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Storm Gael will continue tracking toward Madagascar. The system will move over the country today and decrease in intensity as it moves over land. Dangerous surf, strong winds, and heavy downpours will persist.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - Grit running out as big freeze continues. Heavy snow caused chaos across a swathe of Britain as councils said they were running out of grit to keep roads open and forecasters predicted fresh flurries for southern England during the morning rush hour.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Warnings of killer heatwave - Residents of three states have been warned that the weekend's approaching heatwave is a potential killer. "The unknown for us tomorrow is the potential for fires." The warnings were echoed by the Victorian Premier who said that tomorrow COULD BE THE "WORST DAY IN THE HISTORY OF THE STATE". "It's just as bad a day as you can imagine and on top of that the state is just tinder-dry. People need to exercise real common sense tomorrow. If you don't need to go out, don't go out, it's a seriously bad day. If you don't need to travel, don't travel. Don't go on the roads. If you don't need to use the public transport system, don't use it." Temperatures this weekend are expected to hit a high of 34C in Sydney's CBD and 44C in the city's west before a southerly change cools things down late on Sunday. However this may be mild compared to the state's west which could bake under 47C and be the hottest place on the planet. In South Australia tomorrow could present the worst risk of a major bushfire for several years. The combination of extreme temperatures and high winds presents a severe danger that will only end with the expected cool change late tomorrow.

CHINA Declares Highest Level of Drought Emergency - China, the world’s largest grain producer, raised its drought-emergency alert to level one, the highest class, for the first time, as dry weather threatened crops, livestock and rural incomes. About 143 million mu (9.5 million hectares) of winter wheat are in drought, more than 40 percent of the crop nationwide, and about a third of that is in a “severe” condition. Some 4.3 million people and 2.1 million large livestock have limited access to drinking water. The WORST DRY SPELL IN 50 YEARS may reduce the wheat harvest in summer “by 2-5 percent." Average precipitation so far in the winter wheat area is the LOWEST IN 30 YEARS.

SOUTH AFRICA - Wildfires sweeping the Cape are expected to become harder to fight as the strong winds fan and intensify fires. The Weather Bureau issued dire warning that the heat and high winds predicted for today will create favourable conditions for run away fires in the Western Cape. Fire fighters battled close to 80 fires in the past 24 hours.

CALIFORNIA - Nature seems to be producing the third straight year of drought. The Sierra snowpack is only 61% of normal.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
CALFORNIA - After ONE OF THE DRIEST JANUARYS ON RECORD, St. Helena GRAPEGROWERS are bracing for a serious drought.

AUSTRALIA - The Queensland floods will devastate the BEEF INDUSTRY as livestock starve. Tens of thousands of cattle stranded by floods in Queensland have been left to starve because owners cannot drop feed to them and state authorities say they are powerless to act. In many cases, livestock have moved hundreds of kilometres from their stations, which means identifying their owners is difficult. And with much of the area under water, station owners have no feed and many of the animals have been left to die. Farmers fear the rain and floods that have affected two-thirds of Queensland will devastate the beef industry in some regions, while sugarcane growers are also bracing for heavy losses. Although flooding as a result of two cyclones began receding in many areas yesterday, authorities now fear a king tide this weekend could combine with a low pressure system off the coast to once again flood the coast from Cardwell to Townsville. Pilots flying over the Gulf country have reported thousands of starving or dead cattle. The sugar industry has also been hit, with growers in the Burdekin region around Townsville fearing the floods could reduce this year's crop by 20 per cent.

GM crops 'may give lower yields' - US researchers have criticised claims that genetically modified (GM) crops can help feed a hungry world. GM crops have been a "spectacular under-performer" in terms of yields. GM crops cover about 10% of all commercial farmland globally. Recent yield gains are just as likely to result from conventional breeding techniques as they are from genetic engineering. Even after years of research and near market dominance in four major crops in the United States, most of the promises for genetically engineered varieties are still in the future. Yet GM crops have many fans, especially in the US where farmers have widely embraced the technology. Almost half of all corn grown in the US is genetically engineered and for soybeans it is 80%. The yield for soybeans has gone down however. There is controversy over whether the regulators have been too lax in allowing the biotech giants to buy up their competitors and dominate the market. "We see biotech companies often claiming that they are going to introduce miracle seeds with all sorts of fabulous properties - drought-resistance, extra nutrition, salt-tolerance. What's interesting though is that despite all of this hype, in 20 years we only have two traits that have been successfully developed."

Thursday, February 5, 2009 -

“A truth that's told with bad intent beats all the lies you can invent.”
William Blake

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/4/09 -
None 5.0 or over. [Eeriely quiet.]

VOLCANOES -
ETHIOPIA - The volcanic landscape of the Afar region in northern Ethiopia results from tectonic forces working deep below the surface. Here, Africa is splitting apart. The northeastern portion of the African Plate, comprising the Horn of Africa, is pulling away from the main portion of the plate at a rate of 1 to 2 centimeters per year, creating the Ethiopian Rift, including Erta Ale, one of the world’s most active volcanoes, and numerous other volcanic cones and fissures. In November 2008, a lava flow erupted from a linear volcanic fissure in the northern part of the Erta Ale Ridge. New lava has spread several kilometers to the northeast, and to a lesser extent to the south and southwest. NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer detected thermal hotspots at the site of this eruption until the end of December 2008.
Most spreading ridges occur beneath the seas, where mid-ocean ridges continually produce new seafloor. They are RARE on land, namely at the Ethiopian Rift, and Iceland which straddles the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The Ethiopian Rift is only the northern part of the East African Rift System, a vast and complex geological feature that extends from the Red Sea to Tanzania. To the north, the Arabian Plate is pulling away from the African Plate in a northerly direction, a movement that has produced — and continues to widen — the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone GAEL was 96 nmi N of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - forecasters fear ex-tropical cyclone Ellie, now over the Gulf of Carpentaria, could re-form, and a low east of Cardwell, south of Cairns, could also develop into a cyclone within 24 to 48 hours. Both lows continue to dump between 200mm to 300mm of rain a day. River levels are falling around flood-bound Ingham in north Queensland, but it's small comfort as authorities anxiously monitor the two tropical lows hovering menacingly off the coast. The rain, however, has eased eased a little across the devastated region and a man has been rescued after clinging to a tree in the dark for more than three hours. At last count, almost 3000 homes were still affected by floodwaters.
More than 60% of Queensland is covered by floodwaters and more devastation is expected as the two lows threaten to develop into cyclones. The amount of rain that fell around Ingham in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday was almost half of what fell in Brisbane all of last year. Scores of houses in the northern sugar town have been damaged by flooding and hundreds of people are marooned by rising water, adding to a crisis now spreading across the state. The monsoonal downpour is THE MOST SEVERE IN MORE THAN 30 YEARS. The damage bill has already topped $100 million but is expected to rapidly rise as the floodwaters recede and reveal the true extent of damage to infrastructure, businesses and homes. (photos)

Mauritius issued a tropical storm warning on Wednesday as a cyclone spun toward the Indian Ocean island. Cyclone Gael was located 380km northeast of the island at 05:00 GMT and was moving at 18km/h. Authorities called on residents to take precautions. In 2007, two people were killed on Mauritius and nine were hurt in neighbouring Reunion when a tropical cyclone hit the islands.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Farmers have applauded a research breakthrough by Australian scientists linking temperatures in the Indian Ocean and rainfall in the southeastern states of Australia. The researchers, who believe they have discovered what drives crippling drought, have detailed for the first time how a variable and irregular cycle of warming and cooling of ocean water dictates whether moisture-bearing winds are carried across the southern half of Australia. The phenomenon discovered by the researchers, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), has been in a positive or neutral phase since 1992 - the LONGEST SUCH PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in the late 19th century. According to the study, it indicates that El Nino events do not directly drive drought, as previously thought. "We needed to move away from historical comparisons of rainfall, to focus on accurate and reliable information on future weather patterns and events.''

Arctic storms seen worsening; threat to oil, ships - "Large increases in the potential for extreme weather events were found along the entire southern rim of the Arctic Ocean, including the Barents, Bering and Beaufort Seas," according to the study of Arctic weather by scientists in Norway and Britain. A shrinking of sea ice around the North Pole, which thawed to a record low in the summer of 2007, was likely to spawn more powerful storms that form only over open water and can cause hurricane-strength winds. "The bad news is that as the sea ice retreats you open up a lot of new areas to this kind of extreme weather." Potential new short-cut shipping routes between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans along the northern coast of Canada and Alaska or Russia could turn out to be stormier than expected. More storms could also increase erosion of coasts in the sparsely populated Arctic. The report also suggested that more populated regions further south in Europe might benefit if storms tended northwards. "This may prove to be good news for people along the coastlines of Norway, Iceland, the British Isles and Northern Europe in general."

Wednesday, February 4, 2009 -

You never know what is enough
unless you know what is more than enough.
William Blake

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/3/09 -
5.0 LAKE VICTORIA REGION, TANZANIA
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.2 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Volcanic smoke and gas from two new holes ate through snow and ice high on Alaska's Redoubt Volcano on Saturday — one of them about the size of a football field. "Things are shifting" on, and in, the volcano - considered the ninth most dangerous in the U.S.. Surrounding ice is melting rapidly, and the gases have now been confirmed to include carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, and sulfur dioxide - adding to evidence that a magma chamber is creeping upward. What's more, scientists are now convinced new magma from deep in the Earth has entered the system. As a result, there's now a "greater likelihood" the volcano, which is about 106 miles (170 kilometers) from Anchorage, will explode in days or weeks. "It's always possible it could erupt at any time." Should the magma find a way out, expect an explosion - though area Alaskans are girding for little more than a dusting of ash. (great photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone GAEL was 357 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Military personnel, helicopters and aircraft may be deployed as RECORD FLOODS threaten to force mass evacuations of isolated townships across Queensland's far north. Dozens of families in Karumba and Normanton, in the Gulf of Carpentaria, have been evacuated. More than 1000 homes are flood-affected in Ingham, north of Townsville, including 20 that have up to 1.5m of water flowing through the living areas. More than 30 people are in emergency accommodation and at least six more are stranded awaiting help. Locals say flood levels are higher than the 1974 record. Huge crocodiles in the centre of the Gulf towns have hampered rescue efforts and large numbers have reportedly been seen swimming towards the 60km-wide mouth of the flooded Norman River. Supermarkets in Cairns, Innisfail and Port Douglas are starting to experience food shortages because the main rail link has been severed for more than a week and trucks are unable to travel north of Ingham. And there is more disaster on the way with forecasters predicting heavy rain for the rest of the week. A low off the coast could form into a cyclone as early as tomorrow.
The flooding started last December, at one point closing major inland mines, and has continued, fed by a series of rain depressions and a cyclone.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
BRITAIN - 'Buckling' Britain warned: be ready for more snow. Hundreds of schools remained closed Tuesday after the snow storms, which brought parts of the south of England to a standstill, headed north. The economy could lose as much £3.5 billion this week as a result of the disruption. But further disruption is likely with another wave of snow expected to sweep from south to north through tomorrow night and Thursday.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
The mystery pest which has devoured crops and contaminated water in Liberia and Guinea has finally been identified. The insects, thought to be armyworms, are in fact the caterpillars of the moth Achaea catocaloides. Cornering the culprit will allow the government to select the best pesticide to tackle the outbreak - the worst seen in Liberia since 1970. More than 20,000 people have so far had to evacuate their homes. The Liberian President declared a national state of emergency after caterpillars were reported to have infested more than 100 villages, including several over the border in Guinea. "We really have some homework to do now - because the caterpillars are still spreading." One piece of good news for farmers is that the caterpillars are likely to be easier to control than armyworms would have been. They spin their cocoons on the ground under fallen leaves, which leaves them relatively exposed. One challenge will be reaching the sites of the caterpillar eggs - which are laid on the leaves of very tall Dahoma trees. These eggs hatch into caterpillars which feed on the leaves of the trees until they mature and fall to the ground, where they pupate. Caterpillars which are not yet mature begin migrating in search of food - leading them to crop fields, into water bodies and residential areas. The cause of this year's unexpectedly large outbreak is likely to be UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS. (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -
Dengue fever outbreak in Bolivia - Bolivia sounds the alarm about its WORST OUTBREAK OF DENGUE FEVER FOR 22 YEARS, which has already killed five people and infected 7,000.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009 -

If you cannot get rid of the family skeleton, you may as well make it dance.
George Bernard Shaw

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/2/09 -
5.9 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.1 PAKISTAN

NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK - A small earthquake rattled northern New Jersey on Monday night. The magnitude-3 quake struck at 10:34 p.m. (0334 gmt) between Rockaway and Morris Plains, New Jersey, about 35 miles (55 km) from New York City. "It's very unlikely that there would be any damage at all, nor would we expect any casualties from a quake this size."

VOLCANOES -
JAPAN, RUSSIA - Two volcanoes in Japan and another in eastern Russia erupted overnight, spreading ash as far as the Philippines and Vietnam. Seven minor eruptions occurred at Mount Sakurajima on Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, throwing rocks up to 2 kilometer. Eruptions at Mount Asama in central Japan and Karymsky Volcano on the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka were also reported. There were no reports of damage or injuries. “I woke up after midnight to the sound and shake of the eruption,” said a resident who lives about 20 kilometers away from Asama. “The sound was as if an airplane was taking off nearby and it continued for 30 minutes.” The eruptions occurred in a region where four tectonic plates, the Eurasian, Philippine, North American and Pacific meet.

ALASKA - Like a ticking bomb, Mount Redoubt rumbles and heats from within, venting steam from newly-formed fumaroles, keeping Alaskans who live in its shadow on extreme alert. Overnight "a high-intensity burst of volcanic tremor" occurred for six minutes. There was no eruption associated with this tremor. Increasingly, though, it's appearing that the volcano will indeed erupt, which is an ominous prospect for those those living in communities directly across the Cook Inlet on the Kenai Peninsula. The prospect of an eruption is not welcome by visiting fishermen either. In a few months it will be salmon season on the Kenai and in surrounding areas. A prolonged eruption, like the one in 1989-90, may adversely affect water quality and fishing.
Oil terminal sits in harm's way - When Mount Redoubt erupted 20 years ago, massive floods and raining pumice raised immediate alarms over the Drift River Oil Terminal, with its storage tanks of crude oil sitting at the foot of the volcano. After several weeks of growing explosions and a big blast hit the lava dome, oil workers abandoned the scene by helicopter and the oil terminal was swept by a flood that turned the Drift River, briefly, into the largest river in North America. Federal, state and industry officials debated for weeks what to do about the 900,000 barrels of crude stored in the river's 100-year floodplain. Oil levels were eventually reduced, then the tanks were emptied. For more than a week, that meant shutting down production on 10 Cook Inlet oil platforms, because there was no place to send the oil. The massive eruption on Jan. 2, 1990 melted the glacier off Redoubt's north face and flushed trees out of the rocky valley. For perhaps an hour at the flood's peak, the Drift River was pushing an estimated 8,000 cubic meters of muddy water per second into Cook Inlet, a volume bigger than the Yukon River. For a few minutes at its peak, that volume may have been as high as 60,000 cubic meters a second, far exceeding the output of the Mississippi. What's more, the biggest river on the continent was boiling hot. That flood swamped the berms around the oil tanks. No oil leaked, but the power generation system at the facility flooded, hampering efforts to resume pumping oil. Farther north, the Drift River flood cut into the channel of Montana Bill Creek, scouring out the creek bed and exposing a buried oil pipeline. Fortunately the channel shifted again, leaving the creek empty and the pipeline high and dry. The local pipelines are buried 30 feet deep and anchored by concrete, according to press accounts from 1990. Now Redoubt is restless again. An eruption appears still to be building. So what's the situation at Drift River this time? Nobody will say. Citing new homeland security rules, a spokeswoman for Chevron refused to say how much oil is normally stored at Drift River these days, how much is currently on hand and whether there are plans to summon extra tankers and drain the tanks. State and federal oil spill officials will go a bit further. They say the storage at Drift River is being reduced this week. But they won't say by how much. "It's a perfect example of using terrorism to mask a public concern. How do you have an adequate oil spill response if you don't know the volume?" The terminal has seven 270,000-barrel tanks. A new protective dike built around the tanks at Drift River is designed to steer waters away from the facility if another monstrous flood occurs.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
UNITED KINGDOM - Low-lyingseaside towns were under flood watch as strong winds and crashing waves hit the South Devon coast over the weekend. Huge waves crashed down over Torquay seafront and Brixham breakwater which were closed off for safety reasons. The Environment Agency and coastguards issued warnings about the severe weather with spray and wave over-topping at vulnerable coastal locations including Beesands, Torcross, Slapton, Torbay and Dawlish. "We are coming off the back end of spring tide. On Sunday morning we had lots of big waves breaking over the seafront at Torquay and the breakwater at Brixham. Certainly people can go and have a look but we would advise them to stay well back because the sea is relentless." (photos)

Huge waves - The series of lows moving from west to east to the north of the Azores is producing high waves in the NE of the North Atlantic. Another cold front was expected over the Azores on Monday night with winds from force 8 to 9 (SW’ly on Monday veering NW’ly afterwards) leading to 6-9 metre high waves over a huge area stretching from Cape Finisterre, over Madeira and to the Azores. (wave maps)

Caribbean faces tsunami threat - In the first documented major earthquake in the Caribbean, Jamaica's Port Royal was devastated on June 7, 1692. The city was turned upside down by massive tsunami waves that dumped the harbour's ships onto the once bustling streets and sucked the dead bodies and bones from uprooted graves out into the harbour. Scientists have evidence of at least 10 significant tsunamis in the northern Caribbean since 1492. All 10 have been triggered by earthquakes caused by friction along the boundary of the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates. This boundary, which lies along the north coast of Hispaniola, extends for 3,200 kilometres from Central America to the Lesser Antilles. The last major Caribbean tsunami took place in 1946 and killed about 100 people in the Dominican Republic. Since then, things have been ominously quiet and due to the clockwork-like nature of the region, scientists are wondering when, not if, another tsunami will strike. Despite proposals to build an early-warning system in the Caribbean following the deaths of over 225,000 people in the 2004 Asian tsunami, there is no such system yet in place. A tsunami early-warning system for the Caribbean region may come into place by 2011. However, this means that the 40 million inhabitants of the Caribbean will have no forewarning in the meantime and no contingency plans should a tsunami take place.
The biggest danger comes from all the way across the Atlantic. A geological time bomb that will create the extraordinary phenomenon known as a mega-tsunami is located on one of the Canary Islands, just off the coast of North Africa. One flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma could be plunged into the ocean by the next volcanic eruption. "If the volcano collapsed in one block of rock, weighing 500 billion tonnes, it would create an undersea wave 2,000 feet tall. Within five minutes of the landslide, a dome of water about a mile high would form and then collapse, before the mega tsunami fanned out in every direction, travelling at speeds of up to 500 miles per hour." "When one of these comes in, it keeps on coming for 10 to 15 minutes." Between nine and 12 hours after the collapse of the island, waves between 20 and 50 metres high will crash into the Caribbean islands and the eastern seaboard of North America. Some fear La Palma could collapse at any time. "The thing about La Palma is we know it's on the move now." Scientists believe the chunk of land is slipping slowly into the water and think it is highly likely that another eruption will make the entire western flank collapse.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 13S was 587 nmi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

AUSTRALIA - Kalumburu and Broome residents are being warned to prepare for a cyclone with the development of a tropical low over the Kimberley. “Its pretty much a low key event right now. It may well develop into a cyclone during Thursday as it moves away from the coast and produces some rain.” Gales are not expected on the coast today or Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDONESIA - Landslides, flash floods and high waves have killed at least 18 people on Indonesia's Java and Sulawesi islands. The flash floods, triggered by incessant rains, caused the Bengawan Solo River to burst its banks, submerging thousands of homes on Monday in the East Java district of Bojonegoro. The floodwaters inundated homes in dozens of villages over the weekend in the upper regions of the river in central Java's Solo regency and nearby areas. In addition, more than 1,700 hectares of rice fields in Bojonegoro were inundated by floodwaters up to one-metre deep.

SOLOMON ISLANDS - Flooding in the South Pacific nation of Solomons Islands has killed eight people, left another eight missing, washed away bridges and destroyed houses. Since December, flooding has also hit the Pacific island nations of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, with tens of thousands of islanders abandoning homes. Heavy rain and flooding on the Solomons' main island of Guadalcanal and nearby Savo Island since last Thursday has caused widespread damage and forced the evacuation of more than 70 villagers to the capital Honiara. "The forecast is for more rain as there is a low trough to the south of the country." Last month 11 Fijians died and more than 9,000 people were forced into evacuation centres after the worst floods in decades hit the South Pacific island nation. Sugar is Fiji's second major industry and sugar farms in the west have been devastated by the flooding, with damages estimated to be in the tens of millions of dollars.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

FLORIDA - January was THE DRIEST MONTH ON RECORD in West Palm Beach.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Riddle of Liberian insect plague - A devastating plague of caterpillars ravaging part of West Africa is not armyworms, as previously believed, but an unidentified species, experts say. The insects in Liberia and Guinea are very different from armyworms. Insect experts realised the species was not armyworm during a field trip to Bong County in Liberia last week. Experts had noted the insect has distinct feeding patterns, life cycle, habits, movement and appearance. Specialists are studying the pest to find a way of controlling the swarm, which has affected 400,000 residents. As well as devouring crops, the infestation has polluted water sources with faeces. While armyworms feed on ground cereal like millet, rice or sorghum, the unidentified insect favours munching the leaf of the Dohama tree. The unknown species' cocoons are found on the surface beneath ground leaves, whereas armyworm casings are buried in the soil at a depth of several centimetres. The mystery caterpillar appears to rear up, making half circles in the air as it moves forward, which the armyworm does not do. The wings of its moth also appear different. "Our experts in the field spoke to villagers who said they'd seen this type of caterpillar before. They said they'd put leaves under trees and burned them to suffocate the caterpillar with smoke. But the villagers said they've NEVER SEEN IT IN SUCH LARGE NUMBERS BEFORE, they're really flabbergasted."

Monday, February 2, 2009 -

Sometimes the thing you dread doing is the very thing you should do,
just so you can stop thinking about it.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
2/1/09 -
5.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

JAPAN - A 5.8-magnitude earthquake struck off large areas in eastern Japan, including Tokyo, early Sunday, but there were no reports of any damage.

VOLCANOES -
JAPAN - Mount Asama volcano has erupted, spewing smoke almost 2km (1.3 miles) into the air and causing ash to drift over parts of the capital, Tokyo. There were no reports of injuries or damage in the sparsely populated area around the mountain, 145km north-west of Tokyo. Chunks of rock from the explosion were found about 1km from the volcano. Residents living within a 4km radius of the mountain have been urged to be cautious. No lava flows could be seen. The last major eruption of Mount Asama took place in September 2004, when it spewed ash and rock as far as 200km away. A huge eruption in 1783 caused widespread damage and killed about 1,500 people. (photo)

ALASKA - Mount Redoubt still hadn't blown its stack as of Sunday evening, but some awesome stuff was happening high atop the restless volcano. Two holes -- one more than the length of a football field across -- have formed in Drift Glacier below the summit. Each of the holes, known as fumaroles, is blowing steam and volcanic gas 2,000 feet into the air. A vast sunken area known as a "collapse feature" also has appeared in recent hours. And a thin mudflow is streaming down the 10,197-foot mountain. It takes immense heat welling up within the volcano to make the giant holes and other features in so brief a time. Redoubt could explode at any time -- or take its sweet time and keep us in suspense for days or weeks. It also could simmer down and never erupt, though the chances of that are lower. If it does blow, Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula could be showered with ash. Volcanologists detected a sizeable quake at 5:37 a.m. Sunday with characteristics suggesting the movement of underground fluids.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
At least 12 killed by floods, waves in Indonesia. Three Indonesians died after huge waves washed them away on a beach on Java island, while nine people were killed in floods and landslides in other parts of Java and Sulawesi, officials said on Sunday. The bodies of three high-school students had been found on Parangtritis beach south of the city of Yogyakarta, while two people were still missing after they were swept away on Saturday while waiting to watch the sunrise.

TROPICAL STORMS -

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLIE has weakened after crossing the Queensland coast, although the weather bureau warns that heavy rainfall and flash flooding are now expected to hit parts of north Queensland.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - Floods have killed 12 people in Brazil's southernmost state Rio Grande do Sul and forced some 3,600 people from their homes. Four municipalities in the state bordering Uruguay declared a state of emergency after torrential rains that started from the middle of last week forced residents to flee their homes and left many without electricity and water.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ENGLAND - Heavy snow has fallen across large parts of England disrupting travel and closing schools as forecasters warned of THE MOST SEVERE SNOW FOR SIX YEARS. South-east England was hardest hit, with London buses pulled from service and Gatwick airport closing for a time. The snow also resulted in jack-knifed lorries blocking the M1 and the M25. The Met Office has issued an extreme weather warning for England, Wales and parts of eastern Scotland. More snow is forecast later and on Tuesday. Up to 6in (15cm) of snow was predicted in Kent, London, Surrey and Hampshire as temperatures plummeted overnight.

SWITZERLAND - Just three years after the ski runs were blemished with soggy patches of mud and grass, Alpine resorts are enjoying the BEST SNOW OF A GENERATION, despite predictions that changing weather patterns had doomed the sport. The heavy drifts of snow, which are forecast to be replenished with new falls between Sunday and Wednesday, are THE HEAVIEST FOR 20 YEARS, an instance of freak weather also occurring in several other countries around the world. In Australia, a savage heatwave has caused almost 20 deaths as wildfires roared through the scrubland around Melbourne, while ice storms blistered across the southern parts of the United States. "It is very likely that hot extremes, heatwaves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent as a result of climate change," said the World Meterological Organisation.

U.S. - In a typical winter, weather systems pretty much chug right across the country west to east, like a transcontinental railroad. But for much of this winter, the tracks have been making dramatic turns north and south. So air flows north up to Alaska, drops down into the Great Plains and the South and then turns northward to New England again. “It goes up and down like a rollercoaster. We’ve just been in a pattern that allows that cold air to pour down from Canada and stays even as disturbances go by.” The snow pattern is also UNUSUAL. Typically, New England gets hit by potent storms that collect moisture in the South and then churn up the East Coast, in classic northeaster fashion. This year, the storms have been traveling across the country from Alberta and the northern Plains and arriving just south of New England, drawing extra moisture from the ocean. “And it’s been cold enough that it falls as snow. We’ve been getting one after another of those and because of that we’ve gotten a large accumulation. We’re halfway through the winter and we’ve had just about our [entire] normal fill.” Rhode Island typically gets about 3 feet of snow a season. But already this year, they've received just half an inch less than that amount. This cold, snowy winter begs the question: What happened to global warming? Nothing, scientists say. The planet continues to heat up.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne's water storage levels have plummeted to their lowest January levels since 1984.

SINGAPORE is experiencing an UNUSUALLY DRY spell and it looks like it may last another month. This month has been the DRIEST JANUARY IN 10 YEARS, without a decent shower across the island in a long while. January is usually a wet month, with heavy showers that can last up to three days at a stretch. So what happened? Blame the UNUSUAL WEATHER way up north. In Siberia, actually. An annual accumulation of very cold dry air over Europe and Asia reaches its peak during winter, affecting weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. That cold front occurred earlier than usual this time. Its effects have included the UNUSUALLY COLD weather in Hong Kong, the sudden cold snap in parts of Thailand earlier this month, and the strong north-easterly winds over the South China Sea all the way to Singapore. The dry weather Singapore has experienced in January is usually associated with February. 2004 saw the wettest January in 10 years with 600.9 mm of rainfall, well above the long-term average of 244 mm. This month, however, only 38.3 mm of rainfall was recorded.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
LIBERIA - The UN has warned Liberia could soon face a second wave of crop-destroying armyworms as the pests reproduce. Some 400,000 residents in 100 villages have been affected by tens of millions of the insects. The worst is yet to come. "The second emergence will be devastating. We had the experience in Sierra Leone, in 1979, about 30 years ago. When the second emergence occurs, that will be the biggest population." The worms - which are actually caterpillars - are among the world's most destructive agricultural pests. It is the West African country's worst infestation of armyworm for three decades. Both Liberia and neighbouring Guinea, which has also been affected, have been carrying out aerial spraying against the insects. Sierra Leone, which is also at risk, has mobilised chemicals and personnel to its border with Liberia. Creeks and rivers - which some villages rely on for drinking water - have been polluted by the massive amount of faeces from the insects, which are eating vital crops including banana, plantain, coffee and cocoa. Analysts suggest the swarm may be the result of an unusually long rainy season last year.

Sunday, February 1, 2009 -

Success isn't permanent, and failure isn't fatal.
Mike Ditka

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/31/09 -
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 GUERRERO, MEXICO
1/30/09 -
5.1 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Geologists monitoring Mount Redoubt for signs of a possible eruption noticed that a hole in the glacier clinging to the north side of the volcano had doubled in size overnight - and now spans the length of two football fields. By Saturday, they had confirmed the area was a fumarole, an opening in the earth that emits gases and steam, that was increasing in size at an alarming rate. They also saw water streaming down the glacier, indicating heat from magma is reaching higher elevations of the mountain. "The glacier is sort of falling apart in the upper part." The signs of heat add to concerns that an eruption is near, which could send an ash cloud about 100 miles northeast toward Anchorage, the state's largest city, or onto communities on the Kenai Peninsula, which is even closer to the mountain on the west side of Cook Inlet. It would be the first eruption since 1990. Alaska's volcanoes typically start with an explosion that can shoot ash 50,000 feet high and into the jet stream, and there are warning signs because magma causes small earthquakes as it moves. The observatory has been recording quakes up to magnitude 2.1 but not at the frequency that preceded the last two eruptions in 1989 and 1990. "We're looking for an increase of seismicity to match the precursor activity. We haven't seen that yet."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - The West Sumatra Natural Disaster Coordinating Unit has warned fishermen and marine travel operators that the Feb. 9 lunar eclipse could produce waves up to 5 meters high. The gravitational effect of the eclipse combined with strong winds out of the Indian Ocean blowing toward Sumatra is likely to cause beach erosion and flooding. "We have issued warnings to all regencies and cities in West Sumatra to expect heavy waves, floods, landslides and erosion, so authorities can prepare for the extreme weather conditions, which will peak in February."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ELLIE was 101 nmi E of Cairns, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Residents in Queensland's north have been warned to prepare for torrential rain and high tides as another cyclone moves towards the region. Tropical Cyclone Ellie developed in the Coral Sea this morning and was about 165km east of Cairns at 6am . The category one cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Lucinda early Monday morning. It would generate 100kmh winds, while large waves would lash the coast between Cairns and Townsville. The associated trough would also bring more rain to the west of the state. In the last 24 hours, Innisfail received 50mm of rain and Cairns 54mm. More rain is expected for coastal areas in far north Queensland in the coming days.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - State officials reported a smaller Sierra Nevada snowpack than normal on Thursday and said California may be at the beginning of its WORST DROUGHT IN MODERN HISTORY. Part of the trouble is that this January has been among the driest on record. As of Thursday, San Jose had received just 4.06 inches of rain this winter.

NEVADA - The US Agriculture Department has declared almost all of Nevada a natural disaster area because of losses caused by drought over the past year.

AUSTRALIA - Wildfires destroyed more than 20 homes while hundreds of thousands of others lost power as a record-breaking heat wave that began claiming lives maintained its oppressive grip on southern Australia on Saturday. About six people died from heat stress in Melbourne, Australia's second largest city, over three days before the temperature mellowed to 31 degrees Celsius (88 Fahrenheit) on Saturday. Melbourne on Friday recorded its third consecutive day of temperatures above 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius) for the FIRST TIME SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN IN 1855. South Australia state authorities said Saturday that the heat had probably caused some of the recent 22 sudden deaths there. In Victoria, at least 23 houses were destroyed Friday night and Saturday by wildfires that burned 16,000 acres (6,300 hectares) of forest and farm land. Adelaide is expected to match its longest heat wave in a century on Monday, with six consecutive days exceeding 104 F (40 C). The heat there buckled train and tram lines. "These events are UNPRECEDENTED. In some respects, they are not unlike a natural disaster, impacting on a community like a flood or tornado."

ARGENTINA - farmers face ruin as drought kills cattle, crops. The WORST DROUGHT IN HALF A CENTURY has turned Argentina's once-fertile soil to dust and pushed the country into a state of emergency.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Natural disasters may necessitate leaving an area, U.S. officials say. Experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta advise that in case of any natural disaster, local authorities will give information on whether and how to take shelter or, if necessary, how to evacuate. "The best way to protect yourself and your family, is to follow the advice of local officials. Follow authorities' instructions if they tell you to leave the area." The CDC experts recommend every household have an evacuation plan. Make sure a vehicle has a full tank of gas as well as some flares, booster cables, maps, tools and a fire extinguisher. If no vehicle is available, make arrangements with friends or family for transportation, or follow authorities' instructions on where to obtain transportation.
Prepare an emergency supply kit to take along that includes:
-- Flashlight, battery-powered radio, extra batteries and sleeping bags.
-- Emergency food and water, including a manual can opener.
-- Essential medicines for at least one week and first aid kit.
-- Protective gear such as sturdy shoes, respiratory protection and goggles for the eyes.

Friday, January 30, 2009 -

If the world should blow itself up, the last audible voice would be that of an expert saying it can't be done.
Peter Ustinov

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/29/09 -
5.0 TIMOR REGION
5.0 TIMOR REGION
5.4 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES
5.2 ACRE, BRAZIL

CHINA - Scientists Build Case that Zipingpu Dam Triggered China’s Devastating May 12 Earthquake. The Zipingpu dam reservoir is just a few kilometers from the epicenter and might have induced the earthquake. Representatives from the Chinese Academy of Science, meanwhile, are denying that the Zipingpu dam had anything but good effects on the region.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Mount Redoubt volcano in Alaska expected to erupt 'within days' - "Mount Redoubt is still rumbling and simmering, prompting geologists to repeat their warning that an eruption may be imminent." It would not be a pleasant period in Anchorage if Redoubt were to blow its top, if its previous eruption is any indication. For five months beginning in December 1989, smoke and ash from the 10,197-foot peak disrupted international air traffic and deposited volcanic dust throughout the Anchorage region. That eruption also delivered mud flows from Redoubt into the Drift River drainage. The American Red Cross of Alaska has advised families throughout Alaska to develop disaster plans and put together disaster supply kits. (map & dramatic photo of 1990 eruption)
Since last fall, the Alaska Volcano Observatory has detected increasing volcanic unrest at Redoubt Volcano. Starting on Friday, January 23, the level of seismic activity increased markedly, and on Sunday AVO raised the Aviation Color Code to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level to WATCH. Since Sunday, seismicity has waxed and waned but has remained well above background levels. The seismic unrest observed over the past few days is UNUSUAL for Redoubt and has not been seen since just prior to the 1989-90 eruption. Overflights on January 26 and 27 documented continued production of water vapor and volcanic gas plumes from the summit crater; increased melting has produced small flows of debris at the north base of the volcano. On the basis of all available monitoring data AVO regards that an eruption similar to or smaller than the one that occurred in 1989-90 is the most probable outcome.
Redoubt volcano webcam

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Warnings of further severe sea swells causing tidal surges, similar to those experienced in December 2008, have been issued in Papua New Guinea. The warnings were targeted at the Momase and New Guinea Islands regions. Indications were that additional tidal surges could be experienced in the areas submerged in December, which destroyed crops and infrastructure. The waters south of New Britain Island and around Guam have risen by more than 20cm. Earlier reports stated that late December through January were the months for spring or “king” tides in PNG. “These tides would be in excess of 2.5m along the southern coast from the border of Indonesia and PNG to Milne Bay and the north coast and New Guinea Islands including Bougainville." On 31 December 2008, 38,000 people were still affected by flooding as a result of early December sea swells; 2,000 houses were destroyed or damaged in Manus, East Sepik, New Ireland and the Autonomous Region of Bougainville; and safe drinking water and adequate storage tanks and containers, as well as food and sanitation assistance, were still priority concerns for the affected population. (photo & map)

SPAIN - Giant 50-foot waves battered cruise ship - Passengers on the British cruise ship Balmoral went through a harrowing ordeal this week as the vessel sailed across the notoriously rough Bay of Biscay during a storm. The ship hit 50-foot waves and 60 mph winds during a force nine gale. Multiple pictures at the Daily Mail site show the vessel rolling into the waves at an alarmingly steep angle.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Houses destroyed in wildfire, RECORDS BROKEN in heatwave. Up to five homes were destroyed by bushfires at Boolarra North, east of Melbourne, as the state experienced a third consecutive day of extreme temperatures. Melbourne again endured a top temperature above 43 degrees, marking the FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in 1855 that the city notched up three consecutive days so hot. The mercury reached 45.1 degrees in Melbourne. Tasmania recorded its HOTTEST-EVER TEMPERATURE, 42.2 degrees at Scamander in the state's northeast Birds and possums were becoming heat-stressed. "Sadly these animals are not coping in this ONE-IN-A-100-YEAR HOT SPELL."

Thursday, January 29, 2009 -

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations,
or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
John Adams

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/28/09 -
5.4 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 KEPULAUAN ALOR, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.7 KEPULAUAN BATU, INDONESIA
5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Scientists Fear Volcano Could Bury Anchorage in Ash - The Redoubt Volcano sits about 50 miles west of Kenai and 100 miles southwest of Anchorage. It last erupted during a five-month stretch beginning December, 1989. Recent activity began around 1 a.m. Sunday, then it eased about five hours later. An observatory crew flew over Redoubt, and it ruled there had been no eruption. "There was steaming through pre-existing holes, but there were no new holes. ... and there was no ash on the snow cover." But during the flyover, crew members smelled sulfur, so observatory staff will be monitoring activity and satellite images that identify temperature changes round the clock. Observers will also look to weather radar scanners near the Kenai airport for help. Those scanners send data in six-minute intervals. These scanners will be able to detect an ash plume should one appear. Sunday's volcanic activity came on the heels of a magnitude 5.7 earthquake at the mouth of Cook Inlet. However, that does not necessarily mean the earthquake stirred the volcanic activity. With the two events being more than 100 miles apart, it's even more unlikely.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone HETTIE was 952 nmi NNE of Auckland, New Zealand.

Winter storm Klaus, whose fierce winds ripped across parts of France and Spain over the weekend, could be in the billions of euros, according to preliminary estimates. Klaus, a strong extra-tropical cyclone, made landfall in southwestern France Saturday. The storm traveled through southern France, causing widespread destruction, including damage to buildings, power outages, flooding and travel disruption. The winter storm, which brought winds of more than 150 kilometers per hour and reportedly killed more than 20 people, also caused widespread damage in northern Spain. The French meteorological office had issued a red alert for five departments in southwest France on Saturday as winds of 160 kilometers per hour and higher were recorded in the region. A gust of 184 kph was recorded in the eastern Pyrenees near Perpignan. Meteo France described the winds as SOME OF THE STRONGEST RECORDED SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. Gusts of up to 194 kilometers per hour were recorded over Spain; the storm’s highest wind speeds correspond to those in a Category 3 hurricane. The storm was the most intense and damaging extra-tropical cyclone to hit the region since winter storm Marin in December 1999. The lumber industry was particularly hard hit by the storm, and about 60% to 70% of pine trees in parts of the southwestern France were felled.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

TEXAS - Specialized forecasts issued for severe wildfire conditions - The drought and wildfire dangers have become so serious meteorologists have developed a special detailed fire weather forecast for emergency personnel.

AUSTRALIA - South-east heatwave HOTTEST IN 70 YEARS - Australia's south-east is still enduring a massive heatwave, with Adelaide reaching 45.5 degrees Celsius early Wednesday afternoon. Some country towns are even hotter, with 46.2C recorded at Ceduna on the Eyre Peninsula. This is the closest Adelaide has come to its hottest ever day. "The only two times that it's been hotter were both back in 1939, 46.1C on the 12th of January and 45.9C on the 10th of January." The bureau is forecasting a total of six days of 40 degree-plus heat, which would equal the city's hottest ever heatwave set in January 1908.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009 -

"The days of Washington dragging its heels are over.
My administration will not deny facts. We will be guided by them."
President Barack Obama

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/27/09 -
5.4 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.4 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.8 FIJI REGION

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - The Nevado del Huila volcano is on orange alert, meaning an eruption is probable within days or weeks, the Colombian Institute of Geology and Mining said last week. Emergency officials have begun evacuating 800 families from an area at high risk from the expected eruption. An eruption would cause an avalanche down the Paez and Simbola rivers. The town under evacuation, Belalcazar, sits on the bank of the Paez River about a half-mile (less than a kilometer) from the junction with the Simbola River. It was the worst-hit area in November's eruption which killed 6 people. Gas and hot ash caused snow on the mountain peak to melt, sending mud, rocks and floodwater rushing down the Paez and destroying at least 20 homes and washing out five bridges. The volcano's crater holds 52 million cubic meters (1.8 billion cubic feet) of lava. That's the equivalent of 13.8 billion gallons. The Colombian national emergency agency said Monday it is ready to evacuate thousands of residents if the volcano's condition turns to red, which means an eruption is imminent or ongoing. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - ex-cyclone Dominic left a band of rain and thunderstorm activity which was expected to sit over the eastern Gascoyne, Goldfields and western Eucla regions until Saturday. The cyclone, which crossed the coast in WA's Pilbara yesterday, combined with a mid-level disturbance which will bring heavy rainfall. The rainfall would be a double-edged sword for the pastoral and mining region, where rain is badly needed by station owners but could disrupt mining.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SPAIN - Heavy rains sparked flooding Tuesday in northern Spain, while another death increased the number of fatalities claimed by storms to 16. Rainwater flooded basements and garages in several places in the Cantabria and Basque regions, disrupting traffic. Two rivers overflowed their banks in Cantabria, while several schools and other public buildings were evacuated in the Basque city of Bilbao for fear that the river Nervion would do the same. In north-eastern Catalonia, about 3,500 households remained without electricity.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Sleet, ice cause havoc from Texas to Kentucky -- Freezing rain and sleet moved through Texas to Kentucky on Tuesday, icing bridges and roads as the storm system headed east toward the Washington area. The winter storm, which has cut power to tens of thousands of homes and glazed roads, has been blamed for at least five traffic deaths. The National Weather Service issued ice storm warnings from Dallas, Texas, to just north of Memphis, Tennessee.
PENNSYLVANIA - January temperatures have been well below normal. Friday was the first time it topped 50 this month in Philadelphia, something that usually happens six times in January, and the one-day thaw is over. So far, the heavy doses of ice-melting salt that have left ghostly gray coatings on the region's vehicles have been more impressive than the mysteriously meager snowfall. So far, a meager 1.1 inches of snow has been measured for the month at the airport, bringing the seasonal total to 2.4. That's about a third of normal. If that trend continued, this would be one of the least snowy two-year periods in 134 years of recordkeeping. Last winter, only 6.3 inches fell at the airport. In the last two months, some form of frozen precipitation, besides snow, has been reported at Philadelphia International Airport on 17 different days. Already, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Philadelphia district has used more than 32,000 tons of salt, more than it has spread in several entire winters. Oddly, in a narrow corridor west of Philadelphia, snowfall has been about normal, thanks to Monday the 19th's strange storm that left 3 to 5 inches in some of the Pennsylvania suburbs. The classic winter coastal storms that develop off the Carolina coast and generate the region's important snows have been scarce since 2001. "I can't remember something really powerful forming off the Carolina coast." It has been a stormy period in the Atlantic, but the storms have intensified too far north to lash Philadelphia with snow. It is unclear why this has been happening, but in the case of last winter, meteorologists cited a La Niña, an unusual cooling of the tropical Pacific. During a La Niña, an area of higher pressure, or heavier air, tends to form off the Southeast coast, suppressing storms. Some remnants of that pattern evidently have persisted this winter. Perhaps the snow-deprivation is a "payback" for the 30-inch snow of January 1996 and the 20 inches in February 2003.

EUROPE has experienced some intense weather this winter, with cold maintaining a strong grip on the entire continent and severe storms continually battering western Europe with heavy snow and winds. A series of FREAK WEATHER EVENTS involving wind and snow have left over a dozen dead from Scotland to Spain over the weekend. Near Barcelona, four children were killed when a roof collapsed due to hurricane-force winds. A weather station in northern Spain recorded wind gusts up to 110 MPH, the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane. In Biscarrosse, France, a wind gust of 99 MPH was recorded. Such winds are EXTREMELY RARE outside tropical cyclones and tornadoes and especially so in continental Europe. This is just the latest string in a series of extreme weather events across Europe over the past few months.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne is preparing for its LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN A CENTURY, which may push energy demand to records. The Victorian state capital may have four days of temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) from today. That would be the longest stretch since 1908. A high pressure system over the Tasman sea is pushing northerly winds over southeastern Australia, causing extreme heat in Victoria and South Australia. “The high pressure system is hardly predicted to move for several days and that’s definitely flowing through into a very prolonged period of extreme heat. It’s certainly UNUSUAL.” Train tracks in Melbourne buckled because of the heat, causing cancellations and delays. “The heat wave also posed a serious fire risk for the state. This week’s heat wave is longer and hotter than nearly all Victorians have experienced in a lifetime.”

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 -

“In pushing other species to extinction, humanity is busy sawing off the limb on which it is perched.”
Paul Ehrlich

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/26/09 -
5.6 KEPULAUAN BATU, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTHWESTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA
5.8 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.7 FIJI REGION
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

CALIFORNIA - A report found that as many as 50% of California's hospitals could suffer serious damage or collapse during an earthquake. Many buildings have not completed upgrades that a 1994 law requires be made by 2013.
A major earthquake along the San Andreas Fault could knock out water service to many Southern California homes, including homes in the High Desert, for up to six months, according to a new study. As a rule, people should store one gallon of water per person for at least three days. "When dealing with an earthquake of this magnitude, three days would be the absolute minimum. I would say if you can store more, then store more." The lack of water will also hamper firefighting efforts. Other concerns raised by the simulation is how quickly electricity will be restored. Some estimate it could take anywhere from 10 days to a few weeks. "One of the biggest challenges is the ability to get down through highways and do inspections."

CHINA - Thousands of people have been made homeless by an earthquake on Sunday in remote Qapqal, in China's far western region of Xinjiang near the Kazakh border. The earthquake, which measured 5.0 on the Richter scale, hit an area inhabited by the Xibe people, a community originally from Manchuria. It destroyed nearly 200 homes and damaged nearly 3,000 buildings on Sunday morning. No casualties have been reported so far. More than 4,500 people have been moved to schools, government buildings and tents, in two counties about 700 km to the west of the regional capital, Urumqi.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Redoubt volcano alert raised to orange, indicating that an eruption may be imminent. New seismic activity at Mount Redoubt, 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, has increased significantly and may be the prelude to an eruption, "perhaps within hours to days," the Alaska Volcano Observatory reported Sunday. Redoubt last erupted during a five-month period from December 1989 through April 1990. "Around 1 o'clock (Sunday) morning the seismic activity really started to pick up." The shaking quieted about five hours later, but it still remains well above normal "background" tremor levels.

ITALY - One of the most active volcanoes in the world, the Etna, on Monday was throwing out ashes and lava that descended the western face towards the Bove Valley. The eruption, initiated last May, is visible from a long distance. The phenomenon does not represents any danger for the population, however the volcano is permanently watched due to its constant internal movements.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone DOMINIC was 207 nmi WSW of Port Hedland, Australia.

Clean-up effort is under way in the West Australian town of Onslow after tropical cyclone Dominic brought down trees, damaged power lines and blew a section of roof off the town's library.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NIGERIA - Landslide Renders 200 Homeless - Not less than 200 people have been rendered homeless in Agwagwune, Biase Local Government Area in Cross River State by a landslide that hit the community. The only remedy was to relocate the entire community to a safer ground. Concerted efforts were being made by the state government for the provision of 16 units of houses for some of the victims. The magnitude of the disaster and speed of the devastation may, in a very short while, destroy more houses. The landslide will stop when it gets to firmer ground; at the moment nothing substantial could be done to stop the devastation. Last year, the State Government had called on the Federal Government for an urgent intervention in the imminent Biase landslide which required a total relocation of the affected community in order to save their lives. With over 600 erosion sites across the state, two major drains need to be established as the first step to tackling the problem. Landslides of great magnitudes had devastated the Calabar - Uyo highway, Akai Effiwat, Kilometre 28 and the Murtala Mohammed Highway in Calabar among others.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Deadly avalanches throughout Europe killed at least 20 people during the weekend.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Global warming is 'irreversible' - A team of environmental researchers in the US has warned many effects of climate change are irreversible. The scientists concluded global temperatures could remain high for 1,000 years, even if carbon emissions can somehow be halted. The team warned that if carbon levels in the atmosphere continued to rise, there would be less rainfall in already dry areas of southern Europe, North America, parts of Africa and Australia. The scientists say the oceans are currently slowing down global warming by absorbing heat, but they will eventually release that heat back into the air. "People have imagined that if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide the climate would go back to normal in 100 years, 200 year - that's not true."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
LIBERIA's president has declared a state of emergency in response to a plague of crop-destroying army worms. All possible resources will be used to fight the insects, which have spread to next-door Guinea and are nearing Sierra Leone. Some 400,000 residents in 80 villages have been affected. The "worms" - which are actually caterpillars - are among the world's most destructive agricultural pests. Guinea has started spraying, and Sierra Leone has announced it will mobilise chemicals and personnel to its border. Liberia has already appealed for international help to carry out aerial spraying against tens of millions of the invading insects. It is the West African country's WORST INFESTATION OF ARMY WORM IN THREE DECADES. Creeks and rivers - which some villages rely on for drinking water - have been polluted by the massive amount of faeces from the swarm. "It's quite an alarming situation for us, in a country where food-security is a big challenge. The areas affected have all been consumed by the army worms." The invasion began in Bong County before spreading into neighbouring Lofa and Gbarpolu counties and threatening villages over the border in Guinea. With each female laying between 500 and 1,000 eggs, the caterpillars (of the genus Spodoptera) can devour an entire crop in a matter of days once they reach maturity. They grow up to 5cm (2in) in length.

ARGENTINA has declared an agricultural emergency as it confronts one of the worst droughts in decades. The decree will defer tax payments for thousands of farmers for a year. Several regions of Argentina, including the provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, La Pampa and Entre Rios, have been hit by THE WORST DROUGHT SINCE AT LEAST 1971. Since March last year, rainfall has been significantly below normal. Among the effects, some 800,000 head of cattle have been lost, while in Entre Rios some 90% of the wheat crop has been ruined. The worst affected area is the Pampas region, where winds have been whipping up the dry soil and coating huge swathes of barren land. Farmers' leaders indicated the measures did not go far enough. "The only thing this announcement achieves is to postpone the payment of taxes, and that is of no use to the farmer who has lost his entire crop."

Studies find mercury in much US corn syrup - Many common foods made using commercial high fructose corn syrup contain mercury as well, researchers reported on Tuesday, while another study suggested the corn syrup itself is contaminated.

HEALTH THREATS -
A peanut plant in Georgia identified as the source of an outbreak of salmonella shipped out products that managers knew might be tainted, U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials said on Tuesday. More than 500 people in 43 states and Canada have been sickened in the outbreak, which also may be linked with eight deaths. "The team identified approximately 12 instances in 2007 and 2008 where the firm identified some type of salmonella ... and released the products." Records at the plant showed that after the company tested the peanut products and found salmonella, it sent at least some to an outside lab that showed no contamination. The products were then illegally shipped for sale. "There (were) no steps taken (by) the firm as far as cleaning or to minimize cross-contamination." "We expect the lots of recalled products to continue to expand."

Monday, January 26, 2009 -

The bird of Paradise alights only upon the hand that does not grasp.
John Berry

QUAKES -
1/24/09 -
5.2 EAST TIMOR REGION
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.4 ORURO, BOLIVIA
5.7 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.3 FIJI REGION
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.1 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
1/23/09 -
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

CALIFORNIA - Study finds troubling pattern of Southern California quakes - Large earthquakes have rumbled along a southern section of the San Andreas fault more frequently than previously believed, suggesting that Southern California could be overdue for a strong temblor on the notorious fault line, a new study has found. The southern stretch of the San Andreas fault has had a major temblor about every 137 years. The latest one looks to be overdue since the last big temblor was in 1857 which, at an estimated magnitude of 7.9, is considered the most powerful earthquake to hit Southern California in modern times. Until now, scientists believed big quakes occurred along the fault roughly every 200 years. Preliminary analysis of additional research suggests that the time interval between earthquakes may be even shorter, something on the order of 100 years. The findings are significant because seismologists have long believed this portion of the fault is capable of sparking the so-called Big One that officials have for decades warned will eventually occur in Southern California.

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Hot mud geysers on the site at a geothermal power plant drilling project at Mataloko village in Ngada regency, East Nusa Tenggara, are growing in number and steadily spewing, frightening local residents. As of Wednesday, the outflows have flooded nearby plantations and destroyed cropland as plant employees improvise mitigating ditches and geological experts still on the way. The first three eruption points have seen sporadic geysers of mud and materials that have yet to be analyzed. The geysers, as high as 1.5 meters are spewing hot mud measured at a temperature of 120 degrees Celsius. The eruptions have by now formed a crater 100 meters across. Initially the outbursts broke through the surface in only three spots. Now, however, a number of other eruption sites have formed. Residents have expressed concerns the mud could contaminate their wells or cause various illnesses. Several residents said they had stopped employees of the geothermal power project from digging a ditch to channel the outflow into a nearby river, for fear the mud would contaminate their source of water. “That ditch has overflowed by now and the mudflow has inundated residents’ corn fields." At least 300 people in 30 families live near the geothermal drill site.

HAWAII - Kilauea Lava Hits Ocean at New Location. There's a new development at Kilauea, something unseen in 18 months. Lava has hit the ocean and this time, it is happening in a whole new place. But the stream is so small, it doesn't even create a steam plume. (the latest pictures from the new ocean entry point near Wahaula)

CHILE - Chaitén's Caldera Chugging Chunks Continuously - On January 19, an explosive dome collapse occurred at the volcano. A thick plume of ash and steam blew from the volcano’s summit approximately 70 kilometers (38 nautical miles) to the north-northeast. Chaitén Volcano had been dormant for more than 9,000 years when it erupted in May 2008. In the months that followed, the volcano remained active, releasing plumes of steam and volcanic ash, coating local vegetation, clogging waterways, and inundating the nearby town of the same name. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone DOMINIC was 168 nmi W of Port Hedland, Australia.

A cyclone warning is current for communities between Whim Creek and Exmouth in northwest Western Australia. At 9am on Monday a tropical low was 205km north-northwest of Karratha and 315km north-northwest of Onslow, moving southwest at 5km/h. The Bureau of Meteorology warned it might develop into a tropical cyclone as it moved closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
EUROPE - French and Spanish rescuers battled today to reopen roads and railways, douse forest fires and restore power to nearly a million homes plunged into darkness by hurricane-force winds that killed 21 people. The majority of the deaths were in Spain, where four children died near Barcelona when the roof and a wall of a sports hall were brought down on their heads by winds that in some places reached more than 180km/h. They were playing baseball outside the centre as the storm - which saw 20-metre-high waves battering the Atlantic coast - gathered force and they ran inside to shelter. Witnesses said they heard a loud sound, then saw that the roof and part of a wall had crumpled. Twelve died in total in Spain, including a woman who was crushed by a wall, another who died after a door lifted by the wind slammed into her, and a police sergeant killed by a falling tree as he was directing traffic. Hundreds of Spanish firefighters - backed up by 14 planes and helicopters - battled three separate forest fires sparked by electricity pylons brought down by the tempest in north-eastern Spain. The storm was ONE OF THE FIERCEST TO HIT WESTERN EUROPE IN A DECADE. It blew in eastwards from the Atlantic Ocean, barrelling across south-west France and northern Spain - ripping roofs off houses, pulling down power lines and flattening hundreds of thousands of trees. Today it battered Italy, where a young woman was swept away to her death by a wave as she was walking on a beach near the southern city of Naples. The winds had lost some of their force but were strong enough to destroy a restaurant in Imperia on the Mediterranean coast and to force some Italian ferry operators to cancel their sailings. Huge forest areas of the Gironde and Landes regions were flattened by the storm; more than half of the trees in the area appear to have fallen. In 1999 a tempest killed scores and uprooted millions of trees.
SPAIN - Parts of Spain that spent the start of the weekend in the grip of violent storms now face the threat of wildfires. Blazes caused by fallen power lines have been burning in the regions of Valencia and Catalonia. In urban areas, people are still counting the material cost of hurricane-strength winds.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - A blanket of snow has covered a mountain in a part of the United Arab Emirates, a RARE PHENOMENON for the desert Gulf country. Al-Jees mountain, 5,700 feet (1,737 metres) above sea level and 25 kilometres (15 miles) northeast of Ras al-Khaimah city, was covered in 20 centimetres (eight inches) of snow. "Although limited snowfall was recorded on the mountain some years back, for THE FIRST TIME THE PEAK OF THE MOUNTAIN WAS FULLY COVERED IN SNOW." Temperatures plunged to minus 3 degrees Celsius (26.6 Fahrenheit) on Friday and again to below zero on Saturday. The emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai also had heavy rains on Friday and Saturday, in a spell of RARE chilly weather in a desert state where summer temperatures can reach 50 Celcius (122 Fahrenheit).

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

"TEXAS has and continues to experience a protracted period of intense and violent wildfires. Multiple and continuous cold fronts across a wide area of the state characterized by extremely high winds and RECORD LOW HUMIDITY have created optimum conditions for numerous spontaneous and violent wildfires.” Thursday and Friday 45 intense wildfires had been reported and 31 of those were burning more than 10,000 acres. Extreme fire conditions are expected through the course of the coming week.

SPACE WEATHER-
Occasionally, strange abrupt warming will occur in the thin air of the upper atmosphere, with temperatures jumping by as much as 40 degrees C. These "Sudden Stratospheric Warming events" occur every couple of years and are "notoriously unpredictable". But it would be good if you could tell they were happening straight away, as they can have a major impact on things such as the coldness of the northern hemisphere winter and the amount of ozone that will be present above the polar regions. There is a "strikingly close relationship" between cosmic rays detected on Earth and the temperature in the stratosphere above that point. This isn't because the cosmic rays are affecting the atmosphere, but rather the other way round. If the stratosphere heats up, its density is reduced and fewer inbound cosmic particles collide with air molecules. "Now we can potentially use records of cosmic-ray data dating back 50 years to give us a pretty accurate idea of what was happening to the temperature in the stratosphere over this time."
The study shows how the number of high-energy cosmic-rays reaching a detector deep underground, closely matches temperature measurements in the stratosphere. For the first time, scientists have shown how this relationship can be used to identify weather events that occur very suddenly in the stratosphere during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Being able to identify them and understand their frequency is crucial for informing our current climate and weather-forecasting models to improve predictions.

Sunday, January 25, 2009 -

No update today.

Friday, January 23, 2009 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
"The conservation of natural resources is the fundamental problem.
Unless we solve that problem it will avail us little to solve all others."
Theodore Roosevelt

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/22/09 -
6.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.2 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 GUATEMALA
6.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.0 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN


COSTA RICA quake caused mass fish die-off. When the magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck 10 km east of the Poás Volcano on Jan. 8, at least 23 people were killed, most in landslides. Thousands of fish in the nearby Sarapiquí River in north-central Costa Rica were killed when mudslides choked the waterway, turning it to a continuous trough of sludge. Researchers fear that the river's entire fish population may have been wiped out. While the full picture of damage to infrastructure, homes and citizens in the area hit hardest by the quake is now beginning to come into focus, the environmental consequences are still unclear. A total of 550 square kilometers (212 square miles) of terrain, including waterways, were affected in some way by the earthquake.

ARKANSAS - Scientists Warn Of Huge Quake - US scientists warn a newly discovered fault in Arkansas could trigger a magnitude seven earthquake. The previously unknown fault is at least seven miles long and its epicentre is near a major natural gas pipeline. The fault, which lies west of Marianna, is around 5,000 years old and will likely have caused at least one big tremor in its history. Little Rock, the capital of Arkansas, would be at risk if there was a powerful quake despite being 100 miles southwest of the line. Neighbouring states Tennessee and Mississippi could also be hit. Scientists say the fault is different to the one at New Madrid that caused a series of tremors in 1811-12 and made the Mississippi river flow backwards. Most Arkansas earthquakes happen in the northeast of the state, but experts say the Marianna fault is too far away for that area to be affected. (photos)

MYSTERY BOOMS -
ARKANSAS - 1/20/09 - From rattling windows to big loud booms, Sequoyah County residents reported feeling tremors earlier this week, and now officials are investigating the matter. The reports come from as far north as Marble City and as far south as the Le Flore County border. Calls have been pouring into the county sheriff's office. Residents say they heard rumbling noises, and saw their windows and sliding glass doors shaking. Officials say there is no evidence at this time of seismic activity, but they'll continue to look into it.

NEBRASKA - 1/20/09 - loud booms heard in Grand Island Tuesday night and Wednesday morning are believed to be starling control measures or the acts of curious youth. The Central Platte Natural Resources Distric began shooting off propane cannons last Friday night around dusk for about seven to 14 days. But Grand Island/Hall County Emergency Management said the 911 center received calls about loud booms from “one end of town to the other,” and the calls came after dusk. They were reported between 9:30 and 10 p.m. Tuesday and again around 7 a.m. Wednesday. “There were no reports of fire, no reports of damage, no reports of power outages or any infrastructure damage.” The boom almost sounded like a “sonic boom” that is sometimes heard from traveling aircraft. Calls to the Central Nebraska Regional Airport were not immediately returned. Area youth may be experimenting with something like a “dry ice bomb.” When dry ice is dropped into a 2-liter bottle of water, a loud explosion can be the result. The technique has been featured on the cable television show “Mythbusters.” The city of Grand Island has contracted with the U.S. Department of Agriculture for starling control in the past, but no such work is currently under way. “The city has not received any calls from citizens regarding problems with starlings." USDA officials have been tracking the birds. They believe the birds are moving to the area later in the season this year, and for the most part, the flock that is here stays in Grand Island the majority of the year.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
VIRGINIA - During a two-month stretch that is historically chock-full of wave action, the surf has been largely unrideable since early November. Surfers describe it as either “Lake Atlantic” flatness or disorganized wind swells 1 to 3 feet high. Virginia Beach isn’t known as a surfer’s paradise when it comes to quality surf, but the latest spell of poor conditions has local wave riders scratching their heads. Late summer, fall and winter, the tropics are at their hottest and coastal low pressure systems flare up with more regularity. These storms produce long period groundswell that can overcome the area's surf setbacks. But during a more than two-month stretch dating back to Nov. 8 - the day after the last sustained 24-hour period of waves larger than 5 feet - the ocean has been mostly dormant. The antithesis of a "perfect storm" has led to these conditions. "There haven't been any systems coming off the coast of New England that would produce the long period northeast swell that would reach our area, and nothing has come up from the Southeast or tropics." The reason is the extreme southern track of the Arctic jet stream, which has been diving down over the Rocky Mountains then turning east at the Gulf Coast before tracking back north, well off the Eastern Seaboard. That leaves a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast and prevents significant pulses of low pressure from forming. Long term models do not show much change in the pattern.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm FANELE was 411 nmi SSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

MADAGASCAR - Emergency assessment teams are scrambling to get an indication of the damage in Madagascar after tropical storm 'Eric' and cyclone 'Fanele' hit the Indian Ocean island in quick succession this week. Fanele struck the western coast of Madagascar in the early hours of January 21, near the town of Morondava, destroying buildings, flooding large areas and cutting off thousands of people. On 19 January, "Eric affected 1,960 people, damaging 1,652 [buildings, mostly homes], caused one death and left 27 injured and 992 people without shelter." Authorities fear the worst as more information trickles in: "Fanele was definitely more intense than Eric and the damage it caused is very [severe]. The chief of the region of Menabe [where Morondava is situated] said Fanele entered in the morning and stayed for more than four hours - Morondava is destroyed by 80 percent." Fanele made landfall from the Mozambique Channel as a category 3 cyclone and swept through the southern part of Madagascar, gradually decreasing to a tropical storm before exiting to the Indian Ocean. Around 70 percent of Madagascar's population live on less than a dollar a day and extreme weather events are part of the island's history. The cyclone season usually kicks off in December and runs through April, when storms hit some of the poorest regions in the country. In 2008 over 100 people died when Madagascar was hit by cyclones Fame, Jokwe and Ivan. The powerful winds, heavy rains and flooding affected over 340,000 people, of whom 190,000 lost their homes. 2007 was the worst year on record, with six cyclones affecting nearly half a million people, mainly in the central and northern parts of the island; in the parched south drought has persisted for several years. Temperatures in the Indian Ocean are well above average and meteorologists are predicting that 2009 may be a particularly bad year.
Authorities in the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar have put the death toll from tropical cyclone Fanele at at least nine. Most of the fatalities occurred in the southern highlands. Two US yachtsmen are still missing, after their vessel got into difficulties 30 kilometres from the southern harbour of Fort Dauphin, when Cyclone Eric struck eastern parts Tuesday. One crew member, who was in the cabin at the time of the boat's plunge, was rescued by a freighter.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Climate shift 'killing US trees' - Old growth trees in western parts of the US are probably being killed as a result of regional changes to the climate, a study has suggested. Analysis of undisturbed forests shows that the trees' mortality rate has doubled since 1955. The loss of old growth trees could have implications for the areas' ecology and for the amount of carbon that the forests could store. "The trend we're seeing is a prelude to bigger, more abrupt changes to our forests."

Our Earth is being altered to the point where it cannot sustain much of the life that has thrived for millennia; species extinctions today are occurring at an estimated 1,000 times the normal rate. The global environment is rapidly reaching a tipping point, much like our global economy. Once it passes that point, it will be all the more difficult to pull it back to stability. When our landscapes, rivers and coral reefs can no longer sustain robust species populations, humans are also in trouble.

Thursday, January 22, 2009 -

When you pray; move your feet.
African proverb

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/21/09 -
6.2 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone FANELE was 434 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

Cyclone Fanele which tore across western Madagascar, has left about 2600 people homeless. Fanele made landfall early on Wednesday with winds of up to 150 km (90 miles) per hour, causing extensive damage to buildings and widespread flooding. "In the town of Morondava, 80 percent of houses have lost their roofing." One person died. Workers were trying to restore water and electricity supplies to some 80,000 homes.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TASMANIA - Gale-force winds have wreaked havoc in Tasmania with Hobart residents urged to stay indoors as trees and power lines came down. The gusts of more than 125km/h in the state's south damaged roofs, cut roads, including the Tasman Bridge, and sent a large gum tree crashing onto a bus in central Hobart, injuring a woman. Power has been cut to 19,000 homes, while the strong winds also fanned several bushfires. Smoke from several bushfires burning out of control forced the closure of major roads and highways.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Dust storms are expected to sweep through parts of Victoria, while strong winds and soaring temperatures could create ideal conditions for a major bushfire. "Whether or not we see anything like the big dust event from 1983, at this stage, (is) probably a little unlikely, but not out of the question." The temperature in Melbourne is expected to reach 34 degrees, while Mildura in the north is forecast to top the state with a high of 37.

ANTARCTICA is melting. Scientists used to think Antarctica was bucking the trend on global warming by getting cooler. Now it seems they got it wrong. US researchers have pored over data from satellites and weather stations in the biggest ever study of the frozen continent's climate - and found it's warming after all. The finding is alarming. Scientists now estimate the melting of Antarctica's massive ice sheets will cause the world's sea levels to rise by one to two metres by the end of the century. That's bad news if you live near the Australian coast. "In some areas where you've currently got housing, you'd probably have to abandon those areas." The sea will penetrate up to 1km inland in flat areas like South Australia's lower lakes. Large areas which don't see flooding now would get flooded by king tides. House prices for coastal areas will probably drop. Scientists already knew that the massive ice sheets of western Antarctica were melting, but the study showed they would melt more quickly. The study is also bad news for climate change in general. It had been thought Antarctica's cooling would help restrain global warming by acting as a "cool pack", but this did not appear to be the case. The US study found that eastern Antarctica - which includes the Australian zone - is getting cooler. But this is outweighed by western Antarctica and the Antarctic peninsula, which are warming. Over the past 50 years much of Antarctica has been warming at a rate comparable to the rest of the world. It had been thought Antarctica was cooling partly because of the hole in the ozone layer, which allowed the hot air out.
Meanwhile, a major ice shelf is about to break away from the continent. The Wilkins Ice Shelf is said to be "hanging by a thread" from the Antarctic Peninsula, the strip of land pointing from the white continent towards the southern tip of South America. "It really could go at any minute, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final cracks started to appear very soon." The eastern region of the continent, which is larger and colder than the western portion, is warming at 0.1C per decade, and the west at 0.17C per decade - faster than the global average. "What we found, in a nutshell, is that there is warming across the whole continent, it's stronger in winter and spring but it is there in all seasons." Over the last 30 years, satellites have also shown that sea ice is slowly growing in extent around Antarctica, which some observers say indicates a cooling across the continent or at least in the surrounding seas. But wind patterns were probably the main reason. "If they're blowing northwards you can grow ice quite quickly and in contrast if they blow southwards the ice can contract quickly, whereas in the Arctic it's much more constrained (by land masses). So this positive trend in the Antarctic is certainly not an indication of any cooling trend." (map / photo)

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 -

"We are eager for him to get to work so that with him we can change the world."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/20/09 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 BANDA SEA

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - A possible new eruption of the Nevado del Huila volcano forced authorities to evacuate villages and settlements at risk of being flooded in case of an eruption. The mudslide following an eruption of the volcano in November last year killed several people and destroyed a large part of Belalcázar, a town on the banks of the Rio Paéz. About 4,000 people living near the river are now evacuated. Disaster authorities are monitoring the volcano and will evaluate how long the people will be forced to stay away from their homes.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Studies show the pace of sea-level rise could be increasing. Last month, the White House released data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey that estimated sea-level rise at 1.64 to 4.59 feet by 2100. That is nearly triple what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found just two years ago. Sea levels around Atlantic City, New Jersey, are currently rising about 4 millimeters per year, more than in other areas along the Atlantic Coast. Accelerated sea-level rise could increase coastal flooding, storm intensity and the ongoing destruction of tidal marshes and barrier islands in southern New Jersey. Barrier islands could break apart and disappear beneath the water, while the encroachment of the Atlantic Ocean and Delaware Bay could push tidal marshlands farther inland. The situation is comparable with the Mississippi River basin near New Orleans, where the rapid deterioration of barrier islands during the past century helped create an open path for Hurricane Katrina to inundate the city with devastating floods in 2005.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ERIC was 385 nmi WSW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone FANELE was 692 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

The Indian Ocean island of Madagascar was being hit by two tropical cyclones arriving from opposite directions on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Eric made landfall on Monday in the eastern Fenerive-Est region of the world's fourth-largest island at wind speeds of around 100km/h. Government buildings, schools and shops in the area remained closed Monday and power supplies were deliberately suspended for safety reasons until the storm had passed. There were no reports yet of major damage or injuries. At the same time, the west was bracing for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Fanele. Heavy rains had already begun to fall over the north as the cyclone moved southwards, causing widespread flooding that left close to 250 people homeless in the Sofia region.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ISRAEL - The Water Authority has proposed a ban on watering lawns in public parks to combat one of the WORST DROUGHT'S IN ISRAEL'S HISTORY. The Water Authority is also considering a complete ban on watering gardens, both public and private, including lawns and other landscaping, but would only implement such a ban in a worst-case scenario.

ARGENTINA's government may lose $4.4 billion in export-tax revenue this year as the WORST DROUGHT IN DECADES damages the country’s soybean crops.
Corn jumped for a second day as dry weather damaged the Argentine crop. Rain is unlikely with only a marginal chance of rain early next week when temperatures cool.

HEALTH THREATS -
CHINA faces a "grim" situation in preventing and controlling human cases of bird flu, the health minister said, after announcing four human infections in the last two weeks and three deaths. The three recent fatalities have all fallen ill in areas where there have been no known cases of bird flu in birds. China vaccinates heavily for bird flu, raising concerns among some experts that the vaccines could be masking the presence of the virus. Since the H5N1 virus resurfaced in Asia in 2003, it has infected 391 people, killing 247 of them. At least 34 people have been infected in China and 23 have died.

H5N1 hits Nepal for first time; strikes another Indian state.

AUSTRALIA - At least 170 people have been struck down with the WORST OUTBREAK OF DENGUE FEVER SINCE BEFORE WWII, leading authorities to declare it an epidemic. So far, 161 people in Cairns and nine in Townsville have been confirmed to have contracted the mosquito-borne disease. The Cairns outbreak was of a type of dengue fever more virulent than that found in Townsville. Cairns is dealing with an outbreak of a strain of dengue type three, believed to have originated from Indonesia. More people were having to be taken to hospital, with one person requiring several days in intensive care. "We are really concerned how quickly the number of cases have grown, how quickly it has moved to a range of different suburbs, the short incubation time which makes it difficult to control and the fact it's making people sicker. People are getting sicker than we normally see and children are getting sick where as previously children weren't necessarily getting sick."

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 -

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why.
Then do it.
Robert Heinlein

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/19/09 -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.8 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS



TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ERIC was 357 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone FANELE was 775 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - More than 56 per cent of Queensland - an area almost the size of South Australia - is now eligible for disaster relief funds after recent monsoonal weather. Thirty Queensland communities have been declared disaster zones, with the damage bill estimated at more than $60m. Floods have cut major roads into the state's northwest for more than a week and the communities of Normanton and Karumba are expected to be isolated for at least another six weeks.

PERU - Heavy rains have damaged part of Peru's famed Nazca lines, depositing desert clay and sand on top of three fingers of a geoglyph shaped like a pair of hands, an archaeologist said Monday. Water from the UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINS washed off the nearby Pan-American highway and pushed sand and clay onto part of the site Sunday. The damage is minor. Nazca's dry and windless climate has preserved the mysterious lines for more than 1,000 years since they were etched into the desert sand by indigenous groups who cleared away rocks and small pebbles to form the shape of animals and other figures. Fully visible only from the sky, they are one of Peru's top tourist destinations. Archeologists have warned the lines are vulnerable to flooding. But this was the first known instance of rain damage.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Winter in Los Angeles has felt a bit like summer of late. The National Weather Service says Monday was the city's ninth straight day with temperatures in the 80s; a RECORD FOR JANUARY. A high of 82 degrees was recorded at a University of Southern California weather station near downtown. The city's previous record of 80-degree temperatures was a seven-day stretch in January 1983.

TEXAS - Central Texas is currently the driest area of the country and it's experiencing ONE OF THE WORST DROUGHTS ON RECORD. 71% of Texas is in some stage of drought. The cattle are paying a price for the lack of rainfall and are even hungrier than they appear. The cattle chase feed trucks every time they hear one coming. "No rain … no grass … no grazing. These cattle are living on hay and feed until fields see green again." "On a scale of one to ten, ten being the worst … I think we are at a nine."

Monday, January 19, 2009 -

Let us take things as we find them: let us not attempt to distort them into what they are not.
We cannot make facts. All our wishing cannot change them. We must use them.
John Henry Cardinal Newman

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/18/09 -
5.1 ALASKA PENINSULA
6.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ERIC was 375 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone FANELE was 808 nmi W of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AFGHANISTAN - A series of avalanches have killed at least 10 people in Afghanistan and authorities were still searching for those feared missing. The avalanches hit the southern part of the Salang Tunnel on Friday, the main highway linking southern Afghanistan with the north of the country and to central Asia. The avalanches swept away at least 12 passenger vehicles as well as several machines used for clearing snow to keep the highway open. "In total, so far, we have recovered 10 dead people and rescued some 40 - 11 of whom were hurt by the avalanches. Work is going on to rescue those who are feared trapped."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Europe's lost mist 'boosts heat' - The number of foggy, misty and hazy days is diminishing across the continent, say scientists who have analysed the meteorological data. This clearing of the air in the past 30 years may have amplified the warming of Europe. Since the 1970s, European temperatures have risen by about half-a-degree Celsius per decade. This warming rate is faster than the global mean change (roughly equal to 0.18C per decade) and the trend averaged over all the Earth's land (roughly equal to 0.27C per decade) during the same period. The regional climate models used by scientists have failed to simulate the European experience; legislation that has cleaned up Europe's air is the probable cause. This has limited the presence of the tiny particles, or aerosols, in the atmosphere which help trigger the low-visibility phenomena. With fewer fogs, mists and haze, more of the Sun's energy has been reaching the surface, leading to a rise a rise in temperature. The team's analysis suggests the clearer air's contribution to the background warming trend may have been about 10-20% across Europe as a whole; and in Eastern Europe specifically, it may have been as much as 50%. The decline in the low-visibility phenomena has slowed since 2000. "We conclude that the large improvements in air quality and visibility achieved in Europe over the past decades may mean that future reductions in visibility will be limited, possibly leading to less rapid regional warming."

AUSTRALIA - New research shows the top half of Australia will be little affected by climate change, while from Brisbane south the effects will get stronger and stronger. Canberra tops the list because it doesn't have the ocean to moderate temperatures. Next come Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide and Perth. Sydney and Brisbane will fare a little better, although their climates will still change significantly. And the north will escape the worst of climate change, although it will get wetter. People - and farmers - are predicted to move northwards as the climate changed in the south. But even northern areas will still be hot. The climate should be cooling as the world heads for another ice age in 20,000 years time. So if temperatures are rising, that is alarming. "If we put enough CO2 in the atmosphere we'll prevent an ice age happening."

Sunday, January 18, 2009 -

You always pass failure on the way to success.
Mickey Rooney

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/17/09 -
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
1/16/09 -
5.2 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU

WYOMING - Geologists of Jackson Hole issue press release on Alpine quake - An earthquake was felt at 9:15 pm on Thursday, January 15th in Jackson, Alpine, Etna and Thayne, Wyoming, and Idaho Falls, Idaho. It was a magnitude 4.0 event located just north of Alpine Junction at a depth of 3 miles. This earthquake occurred at the south end of the extended Teton Fault zone along the eastern base of the Teton Mountain Range. Geologists call this area the “Seismic Gap” because of the lack of recorded earthquakes — a linear area along the large Teton Fault, which is UNUSUALLY SEISMICALLY QUIET. The recent swarm of hundreds of earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park lie near the northern end of this “seismic gap”. This seemingly quiet seismic zone centered along the Teton Fault has been the site of magnitude 7 plus earthquakes in pre-historic times. The Faults have created the Grand Teton Mountains and shaped western Wyoming. Another magnitude 7 plus earthquake will fill this gap sometime within the next several hundred years. Some earthquakes are preceded by a perceptible increase in seismicity at one or both ends of the “seismic gap”. There is currently no reliable way to know in advance which small earthquakes are foreshocks to large earthquakes. There is no scientific basis to predict that a large earthquake is imminent. There is no reason to be overly concerned at this time. Just be prudent.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 08S was 374 nmi NW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHIPIPPINES - The death toll in what meteorologists had described as an UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENON is rising as rains and floods continue to wreak havoc in Mindanao and parts of Visayas and Bicol. As of Friday, the casualty figure stood at 21 based on official accounts. A cold front on the eastern seaboard triggered the rains, some experts earlier said they were puzzled by the phenomenon. Rising waters and landslides have disrupted the lives of more than 191,000 people, some 21,000 of whom sought refuge out of their homes. In northern Mindanao alone, more than 100,000 people have been displaced and food is running scarce. Thousands of residents lost homes in Sulu when waves as tall as houses swept coastal villages. “It was the first time we experienced this kind of storm surge.” Waves destroyed houses in four coastal villages in Cebu. The weather disturbance is likely to last until the end of February.

UNITED KINGDOM - A woman has been killed and a surfer caught in near-hurricane conditions as gusts of up to 100mph battered Britain. Exposed parts of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales saw the worst of the weather which deteriorated into the evening on Saturday. Winds of up to 106mph cut electricity supplies to around 100,000 homes across Ireland, north and south, as fallen trees and debris damaged power lines and blocked roads. In Capel Curig, North Wales, winds hit 93mph, while on the tops of the Scottish mountains, gusts of up to 133mph were recorded. 'There's a very strong jet stream across the Atlantic at the moment. When you have a strong jet stream you tend to get more depressions like this.' The storms will be followed by heavy rain and snow in Scotland today and a risk of snowfall in parts of England and Wales on Monday and Tuesday. The high winds could see blizzards in northern regions and 'moderate' snowfall on hills. The blustery wet weather contrasts with the frosty, dry start to the year. Temperatures in the first two weeks of January fell to below minus 12 in some parts as an area of high pressure sat off the coast. Now low pressure areas are bringing in westerly, wet air from the Atlantic.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - The Northeast and Midwest US are expected to experience some of their coldest weather in years, as Arctic air makes its way south from Canada. Schools were closed Friday in Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Illinois and upstate New York because of the cold. The cold weather is also thought to have contributed to the death of five people and dozens of traffic accidents. The BBC's Weather Centre forecast a high of -17C (1.4F) in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, with locals expecting wind chills of -25F to 45F (-31C to -42C). In Detroit, Michigan, the wind chill was at -35F (-37C). Frosty weather has also hit Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

ALASKA - Chinook brings RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES to Interior Alaska. Mother Nature can’t seem to make up her mind. The temperature at Fairbanks International Airport hit a record high of 44 degrees just before midnight on Wednesday, January 14, continuing what has been a dramatic warm-up following one of the worst cold snaps in decades. On Sunday, Janaury 11, the final day of a cold spell that kept residents in Alaska’s second-largest city shivering for 16 days straight, the low temperature at the airport was negative 44. That’s a difference of 88 degrees in just three days. “Incredible. Is there any other place in the country that can do that? It’s just a spectacular chinook." The temperature at Eielson Air Force Base hit 50 degrees just after midnight Wednesday, setting a new ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY. In Nenana, the temperature climbed to 54 degrees Thursday morning, another ALL-TIME HIGH. The 44-degree reading at the airport late Wednesday BROKE THE RECORD of 43 degrees set in 1981. “There’s July days when it’s not that warm." The blast of warm air is the result of strong south winds pushing across the Alaska Range.

NORTH DAKOTA - big swing in the weather. Bismarck's temperature plunged to 44 degrees below zero Thursday morning. By Friday afternoon, the thermometer was to swing more than 70 degrees higher as warmer Pacific air replaced Arctic air. South Dakota was expecting a similar dramatic swing in temperature. The difference from Thursday's morning low in Pollock of 47 below to Friday's high in Rapid City was expected to be more than 90 degrees. Bismarck's 44 below zero temperature shortly after 7:30 a.m. Thursday was a record for the date and one degree short of the city's all-time record low. The harsh winter has also brought record snow totals to many areas of the state.

SPACE WEATHER -
A meteoroid of unknown size hit Earth's atmosphere over Sweden yesterday (Jan. 17 at 1909 UT) and exploded, turning the sky "lightning blue and green." Security camera footage suggests the fireball was about as bright as a full Moon; it was visible from Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and possibly as far away as Spain.

Friday, January 16, 2009 -

Where facts are few, experts are many.
Donald R. Gannon

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/15/09 -
5.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
7.4 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
5.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 TONGA
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.7 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

RUSSIA - New tremors have hit east of the Kuril Islands in the Pacific Ocean, which are disputed between Russia and Japan, hours after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake. The 4.9-magnitude tremor hit roughly in the same location as the earlier quake, 315 kilometres (195 miles) east of the Russian town of Severokurilsk and 1,830 kilometres (1,130 miles) northeast of Tokyo. Russia's Geophysics Service did not report any tsunami threats or damage from the new tremor, although a tsunami warning had been issued for the earlier quake.

COSTA RICA - Eight days later the tremors won't let up. Rescue efforts have been hampered by tremors in the earthquake area of last Thursday, January 8. The fear is heightened by the fact that the tremors are from other faults in the area and not the one that caused the 6.2 quake on the 8th. The tremors are instilling panic in the residents of the area and those seeking refuge in shelters. Yesterday (Thursday) more than 10 aftershocks were felt within hours between 2pm and 4:22pm, mainly in the areas of Sararipiqui. All the tremors registered between 2.7 and 4.1 on the Richter Scale and were felt in many areas of the Central Valley. In addition to the shakes and rumbles, four communities are at high risk of mud slides: Puerto Viejo, Chilamate, Bajos de Chilamate and the La Virgen de Sarapiquí. The accumulation of sediment in the high areas of the Sarapiquí river could cause a mudslide similar to the accumulation caused by the January 8 quake.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - Many houses in Cebu province have either been washed out or covered in sand as big waves spurned by storm surges affected many coastal towns. 26 houses in Ginatilan town in Cebu province were destroyed by big waves last Tuesday, January 6. In Samboan town, 26 houses were also destroyed from the storm surge. In Dumanjug town, ten houses were totally damaged. The residents said that their homes were destroyed Wednesday, January 7. Some houses were uprooted while others were buried in the sand. The houses were located more than 20 meters from the shoreline but last week during a high tide, the waves would reach the homes carrying sand with it. Every night since the incident they get flooded with seawater. The towns of Malabuyoc and Alegria were also affected but only electrical posts were uprooted and coastal roads were destroyed. Meanwhile, because of the storm surge many pumpboats and fastcrafts travelling from Santander to Negros Oriental were not allowed to sail. Many of the employees are not earning. Delays in travel are expected after one of the five Maayo Shipping barge was hit by a big wave when it was about to dock at the port in Santander last Wednesday. The fishermen in Samboan and Dumanjug are the most affected however. Most of the small boats were carried to dry lands. Fishermen have not been out to fish for more than a week already because of the big waves. In order to have something to eat, they wait for low tide and pick seashells instead.

CALIFORNIA - Huge swells predicted to batter Marin coast - Beach-goers are being warned to stay alert if they plan to visit Marin's ocean front in the coming days as large waves are predicted.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Rescuers in the Philippines have recovered eight more bodies from widespread floods and landslides caused by heavy rains, raising the death toll to 17.
A landslide buried a number of houses in a village near Bislig city on Mindanao island on Thursday, five days into a near-continuous downpour.

FIJI, which has been devastated by floods following torrential rains over the last week, has made an international appeal for aid, especially drinking water .

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NETHERLANDS - For THE FIRST TIME IN 12 YEARS, the Netherlands’ canals froze this month, bringing the Dutch a heady mix of pandemonium and euphoria. In the 19th century, when Hans Brinker, the hero of the novel in which he tries to win a pair of silver skates, coasted along Holland’s ice, the canals froze almost every year. But water pollution and climate change have made this so rare that today a boy of 15, Brinker’s age, may never have seen a frozen canal, or at least remember one. Until, that is, this year. By this week, the rain and clouds of the usual Dutch winter were back. The cold snap that brought the ice earlier in the month was caused by cold air that came rolling in from the east, across Germany and into the Netherlands. Oddly, though, the cold swept across only the southern Netherlands and not the north.

SPAIN - The Axarquia region was covered by a blanket of snow some days ago and the Sierra Tejeda-Almijara region was completely snowed in. This is THE FIRST TIME IN 50 YEARS THAT IT HAS SNOWED IN THE AREA.

Weather implicated in mystery pelican deaths - More than 400 endangered California brown pelicans have been found dead or dying since late December, with disoriented and starving birds turning up on highways, in backyards and even in the Arizona desert. Now, after an investigation with all manner of sinister theories — from bird flu to poisoning by lingering fire retardant used to fight the region’s wildfires — California fish and game officials say they are closing in on a more usual suspect: Mother Nature. Many of the birds flooding West Coast animal hospitals and rescue centers were caught in a snowstorm and brutal cold snap on the Oregon-Washington border in mid-December, setting off an arduous and often life-threatening commute to warmer climes. “Pelicans were observed in the middle of that storm and then seen moving south." About a week later, ill birds started showing up on the California coast and inland. The tip-off for scientists was frostbite. “It was severe in a lot of cases. There were legs, toes and pouches frozen off.” Flocks might have been caught off guard on East Sand Island in the Columbia River, where observers reported thousands of birds still roosting in early December. There might have been as many as 5,000 pelicans on the island when the storm hit, packing 60 mile-an-hour winds and temperatures below freezing. “These birds were probably not subject to any thing like this in a hundred years."

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Farmers could help curb rising global temperatures by selecting crop varieties that reflect solar energy back into space, researchers say. Scientists calculate that switching crops in North America and Europe could reduce global temperatures by about 0.1C. Temperatures have risen by about 0.7C since the dawn of the industrial age. "There's lots of talk about whether we can build sunscreens in space or pump aerosols into the atmosphere. But these schemes require trillions of dollars of investment in infrastructure and it seems unlikely we'll get round to it. Whereas farming already has a global infrastructure and it's done each year, so it should be relatively simple to utilise it to provide a climate benefit." Other experts say the idea is feasible but could not cool the world enough to combat rising greenhouse gas levels. It would be natural to think that a plant that absorbs a greater proportion of the incoming solar energy would produce a higher yield. But that does not appear to be borne out in practice. A downside to the idea is that it only works with crops grown in Europe and North America. In the Asian growing season, most of the reflection is done by clouds, so changing the ground's albedo would have little impact. This, and most engineering "fixes", do not address a separate problem posed by the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - the acidity change in the oceans, which is likely to impact marine organisms such as coral and molluscs.

Thursday, January 15, 2009 -

A lot of odd items today.

It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.
Gore Vidal

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/14/09 -
5.1 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.0 FLORES SEA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

COSTA RICA - An eerie silence after the quake - Driving to the Poás volcano from Heredia seems normal until you get within kilometres of Vara Blanca, when you start to see the real effects of Thursday's quake and are overcome by the eerie silence coming from communities like Los Cartagos which has been completed abandoned. Up the Alajuela route to the Poás is a different story. Most of the shelters housing refugees are set up there in communities like Fraijanes and Poasito. Parks and empty lots have been converted into campgrounds, people pitching tents and calling it home for now. Earth moving equipment are cleaning up the roads, trucks carrying dirt from one place to another and chainsaws buzzing as they cut down trees before they fall onto the road and houses below are everywhere. Hillsides fallen into the valley below, roads cracked, some houses completely demolished by the force of the earthquake, while others next door not a nail moved. In Poasito, only six kilometres from the Poás volcano and short distance from Vara Blanca, some 500 people are taking shelter and fearing to go back to their homes, for those who have homes to go back to, as the aftershocks continue. In total there are 21 shelters in the area housing 2,000 people. (many photos)

UNITED KINGDOM - Residents reported a load bang and a rumbling noise followed by tremors as an earthquake measuring 3.3 on the Richter scale struck the islands. The incident happened at 5.30am on Thursday and the police and coastguard received several calls from worried householders. The islanders described their windows shaking as if a truck was being driven past them at speed, windows going "in and out", a "growing rumble like a very large train approaching" and a "loud explosion". The LOCATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE WAS QUITE UNUSUAL as the area was not known for its seismic activity. The UK is hit by around 200 minor tremors every year, but only ten per cent are noticed by the general public. An earthquake measuring 5 on the Richter scale occurs on average every ten years, and a magnitude 4 earthquake occur every two to three years. The largest tremor in recent times measured 5.2 and struck Market Rasen, Lincs, in February last year. It was the most powerful quake in the UK for almost 25 years and caused widespread structural damage and several injuries.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Large surf has been spreading out over the entire Pacific Ocean - A trough of low pressure initially developed in the Western Pacific, between the Philippines and Japan late last week. This area of low pressure pulled up an exceptional amount of tropical moisture from the area around the Philippines, which really helped it intensify while it grew in size this past weekend. The Quikscat satellite recorded 40-50 knots of wind over a large fetch, aimed well at both Hawaii and California during that time. Long-period swell from this component of the storm will slam Hawaii Wednesday afternoon and into today, with a smaller version of that surf reaching the West Coast Friday and Saturday. Of course, the storm isn't done yet either; it's now evolving into a huge complex low pressure system. (Think of a complex low as a single 'parent' storm anchored in a center position, with a succession of secondary storms rotating around this parent low in a conveyor belt like fashion.) Which still has another couple days of life left. A second push of swell from this component of the storm will reach the Hawaiian Islands late this work week, with those waves then arriving along the West Coast a couple days thereafter. Unfortunately for Hawaii, these same storms that are setting up the swell will also brush just to the north of the Islands for the middle to second half of the week as the swell arrives, setting up breezy Kona flow. California will enjoy much better conditions throughout the swell event as it will be under the influence of high pressure, with favorable wind and warm, sunny weather.
The Pacific isn't the only ocean in the Northern Hemisphere blowing up with storm activity and swell right now. The North Atlantic is really cranking, and it looks like a bigger, Mega-low/swell could develop in the next few days for Europe.

AUSTRALIA - Huge king tides and dangerous rips wreaked havoc on Noosa beaches this week, with more than 20 rescues on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, including two suspected spinal injuries. High tides of between 2.4m and 2.8m and massive swells pounded local beaches as lifeguards ferried distressed swimmers back to shore by jet ski, board and tube. Paramedics were called to the beach three times on Monday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

MOZAMBIQUE could face up to 10 cyclones by March, worsening flooding that has killed at least 25 people in the past two weeks. Tropical cyclones will cause torrential rains in central and southern regions of the impoverished southern African country. "At the moment (1/14) we are monitoring Cyclone Dongo which is over the Indian Ocean travelling southwards and this gives us an indication that we are bracing for cyclones in the next two months." Mozambique has been pelted with torrential rains in recent weeks, causing deaths in central region, making rivers burst their banks and forcing thousands of villagers to flee flooded homes. The water level in the Zambezi River in central Mozambique, which stretches 500 km (300 miles) through four provinces, is above flood-alert levels, swelled by rains in neighbouring Malawi and Zambia. "We expect above-normal rains until March which is likely to cause flooding."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WYOMING - Yellowstone National Park on Avalanche Alert - After a month of frequent and unexplained earthquakes, Yellowstone National Park is experiencing dangerous avalanche conditions like much of the American West. “In the last two weeks we’ve had AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IN AREAS WHERE IT WAS NOT EXPECTED." 48 avalanches have taken place on the park’s Sylvan Pass since Dec. 19.
Change is a common feature of Yellowstone Park. On Oct. 27, a study indicated that “climatic warming already has disrupted one of the best-protected ecosystems on our planet." For six decades, scientists have monitored the park, and found that frogs, toads and salamanders in the park’s wetlands are on the decline. Scientists have known for some time that ecological changes are also underway in the Lamar Valley, popular for an array of wildlife. “The early stages of a new ecosystem” are underway there. A drought has dried out once marshy areas, and a plant that found its way to North America from the Mediterranean, the Canada thistle, has moved in. With the thistle, gophers have entered the area to feed on the plant’s roots. Grizzly bears are feeding more on gophers and the caches of food they leave behind.

PHILIPPINES - UNUSUAL WEATHER has brought heavy rains in Visayas and Mindanao and sent the temperature dipping to an all-time low this year of 9.4 Celsius in Baguio City. The coldest morning experienced in Baguio was on Jan. 18, 1961 when the temperature plunged to 6.3 degrees Celsius. “The heavy rains we are experiencing now are evidence that we are having a wet season that is wetter than usual. It is ABNORMAL but not highly unusual. It happens." For the rest of Luzon, a surge of the northeast monsoon - icy wind blowing in from the northern hemisphere experienced from October to March - was triggering rainshowers and cold temperatures.

BRITAIN - An UNUSUAL rotating ice circle, normally found in the cooler rivers of Scandinavia or North America, has formed in the UK waterways. The cause of the RARE phenomenon is unclear, with very little scientific evidence available to explain the formation of the discs. Scientists believe the extreme cold weather combined with an UNUSUAL current is the more likely reason. The 10ft disc was seen by a rambler on the River Otter in Devon, who estimated that it was spinning through 360 degrees every four minutes. The Meteorological Office said that they could not explain why the ice circle appeared last week. "We have not seen anything like this before and we’ve no idea why they seem to be more common in Scandinavia.” Mystery has surrounded the discs since they were first described as long ago as the nineteenth century. The disc was spotted on January 7 as temperatures in southern England reached as low as minus 10C. The freeze caused UNUSUAL behaviour amongst British wildlife, which is ill prepared for such conditions. Photographs of the phenomenon emerged from Russia recently, and it appears that the discs are quite common in Norway as well as Sweden, where they have been recorded on the River Ljusnan measuring up to 200m wide, as well as on the River Pite and on Lake Hotagssjon. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - The mercury reading topped out at 87 degrees in Santa Maria on Tuesday - SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD for Jan. 13 and SETTING A NEW MARK FOR ANY DAY IN JANUARY. The previous daily record for Jan. 13. was 78 degrees, set in 1948, and the record for January was 86, recorded on Jan. 19, 1976. In Lompoc, the temperature reached a high of 81 degrees - 15 degrees above normal. More days of low 80s to high 70s are forecast through the weekend on the Central Coast, as unseasonably warm weather has brought TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE COMMON IN JULY THAN IN JANUARY. The winter heat wave is being caused by a strong, high pressure system over the Nevada area, which is circulating warm, dry air toward Southern California and the Central Coast.
The heat is on in Southern California. Temperatures Tuesday reached well into the 80s with the Santa Ana winds blowing in hot, dry air. The fire station in the town of Santa Ana reported a high of 89 Tuesday, tying their record high set in 1928. But more impressive was their low overnight, which only dropped to 73 degrees. That's 7 degrees warmer than Phoenix's average 'high' temperature for the day. The 73 degree reading was their WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE READING EVER BETWEEN DECEMBER AND MARCH. That's thanks to that warm east wind acting like a blow dryer to the area.
As this warm ridge of high pressure builds in heat from the south, some of the places in the Yukon, which had been dozens of degrees below zero, are now wildly swinging to the other side of the pendulum. In the small town of Old Crow in the Yukon Territories, the low temperature on Tuesday was -58 degrees F. The expected high today is 32 degrees above zero -- a warming of 90 degrees in just over 48 hours. How's that for THE COLDEST HEAT WAVE EVER? Many other towns in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories are also going similar swings (although not 90 degree swings, but in the 60-80 degree F range). In fact, the high in Inuvik, which is way up near the shores of the Arctic Ocean, is +37 F on Thursday -- not too far from Tacoma's expected high that day.
[*Also at this link, you can watch a weird phenomenon captured on the UW Atmospheric Building's time lapse camera on Tuesday, Jan. 13. Watch the area with the break in the overcast a few seconds after the video begins and note the rippling effect in the clouds. This might be a gravity wave. You can also watch a much more pronounced one that was captured on video on web camera in Tama, Iowa. I highly recommend viewing this one.]

AUSTRALIA - Thousands of birds die in outback heatwave - A huge flock of birds has dropped dead in temperatures topping 45C after swamping an outback roadhouse in the southern Gascoyne. Budgerigars, crimson chat, zebra finches and cockatiels descended on the Overlander Roadhouse, 200km south of Carnarvon, on Monday last week. Thousands of birds have since died after invading sheds, basements and even a hotel bedroom. The number of dead birds was well over 1000 and it was probably due to the extreme heat. It probably happened when what were mostly young birds were “caught out” by the heatwave. The woman who owns the Overlander Roadhouse said the scenes were reminiscent of Alfred Hitchcock’s film The Birds. So many birds arrived that they broke the branches of one of her trees. “I’ve never seen anything like it - birds were dropping out of the sky, dead. They were just coming out of nowhere." Officials put out water bins for the birds, but many seemed too exhausted to be revived. “We tried to give them water but they were drowning under the sprinklers.” Kangaroos, emus and goats also died in the heat. (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
Peanut Corporation of America, a peanut processing company and maker of peanut butter for bulk distribution to institutions, food service industries, and private label food companies, announced a voluntary recall of peanut butter produced in its Blakely, Georgia processing facility because it has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella. [Which may have caused the deaths of 5 people.]

Wednesday, January 14, 2009 -

We can have facts without thinking but we cannot have thinking without facts.
John Dewey

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/13/09 -
5.1 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.2 CRETE, GREECE
5.9 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

YELLOWSTONE - A new series of what are described as a "modest swarm of earthquakes" began Friday in Yellowstone National Park, about 10 miles northeast of the north end of Yellowstone Lake, where a swarm of approximately 900 quakes had occurred between Dec. 26 and Thursday. The current swarm is located on the northeast corner of the Yellowstone Caldera. The new swarm, so far, is considerably smaller than the first series. The migration of the quakes continues in a north-northeast direction. The largest of the new swarm of quakes was a magnitude 3.3 recorded at 11:17 a.m. Friday. The observatory is checking for any changes to the thermal areas located near the epicenters. Of the earlier swarm, 500 have been reviewed by seismologists; 111 of those earthquakes had a magnitude of greater than 2.0, and 18 earthquakes were greater than 3.0. The swarm of tremors is the largest series of back-to-back quakes to hit the area in years. The last prior major earthquake swarm was in 1985 and lasted three months.
Bogus Yellowstone evacuation notice may draw federal charges - A self-dubbed expert told people they were supposed to evacuate their homes during the recent swarm of earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park. He now may face criminal charges for his suspect predictions of doom. After hundreds of small quakes shook the Park in late December, Christopher Sanders, a 35-year old natural-gas developer from Texas, created a Web page and video advising everyone within a 200-mile radius of Yellowstone to evacuate. On Jan. 1, he posted an alert on a personal Web site warning in red letters that a super-volcanic eruption could be imminent. At the top of his page, he placed a United States Geological Survey logo under the heading, "YELLOWSTONE WARNING!" That drew the ire of the USGS - the federal agency that actually has the authority to issue a volcano warning and that saw no imminent threat from the earthquakes. The agency's legal department is considering filing legal charges of impersonating a federal official and using the USGS logo without permission. Sanders' Web page was taken offline late Thursday night, but his video calling for evacuation remained viewable on YouTube.com. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory closely monitored the swarm. It recorded some 900 minor quakes near Fishing Bridge between Dec. 26 and Jan. 8. According to an observatory release, the combined energy level of all 900 tremors would equal a single 4.5 magnitude quake. The USGS pegs the odds of Yellowstone massively erupting any time soon at about .00014 percent.

TAJIKISTAN - Tajik officials are trying to find the source of a rumor that led tens of thousands of Tajiks in four major cities to spend the night on the streets in freezing temperatures because of reports of an imminent earthquake. The rumor that a very strong and destructive earthquake would happen overnight on January 10-11 spread in the cities of Khujand, Kulob, Kurghonteppa, and the capital, Dushanbe. People panicked and tens of thousands spent the night sleeping outside in tents and makeshift shelters.

COSTA RICA - Since Thursday, the main event (6.1 quake) has been followed by over 1,200 minor aftershocks. "The tectonic framework of Costa Rica is complex as a result of four plates and microplates interacting: the Cocos, Caribbean, Nazca and the Panama block. The subduction of the Cocos plate creates a continuous range of volcanoes as well as crustal faults running from the northwest to southeast through Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The historical seismicity indicates that those active crustal faults can generate large earthquakes, which characterize a significant hazard to the cities located on this zone. Costa Rica is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, which forms a belt of seismic activity along the edge of the Pacific Ocean." Extensive road damage has destroyed bridges and cut off main highway access to Poas Volcano. The areas around Sarapiqui, Santa Barbara and Poas were the hardest hit with damage reported to some houses and hotels. Costa Rica has one of the strictest building codes in Central America.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - The BIGGEST KING TIDE IN 15 YEARS Monday forced cars to drive through sections of Ballina's Tamar Street flooded with seawater. The east coast of Australia experienced the biggest king tide it is likely to experience for the rest of the year. That meant high tides were 50cm higher than normal. All beaches at Ballina were closed because of the dangerous surf conditions created by the big tide. There was some erosion of dunes from waves surging up beaches. "People walking along the beaches have to be wary, as well as rock fishermen, because there will be larger than normal waves. There is a huge amount of water coming into shore that needs to return to the sea. So there will be flash rips forming which can potentially wash swimmers out to sea." A climate researcher said the tides could be a regular occurrence by 2060 if sea levels continued to rise. "This king tide is not caused by climate change, but it can help us picture what our coastlines might look like in the future." A resident of Ballina said he did not think rising sea levels would take as long as 50 years. "I think in 15 years we will be in a lot of trouble."

INDONESIA - The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has warned that EXTREME WEATHER PATTERNS in the next few days could trigger high waves and heavy downpours in the province and the country's eastern region. The patterns were related to the impacts of the La Nina phenomenon from the north and Typhoon Charlotte running at high speed, forming a curve from Papua New Guinea through Indonesia's eastern region to the western part of Australia. "THIS IS A NEW PHENOMENON because the La Nina phenomenon is emerging at the same time as a tropical typhoon, raising waves up to 5 meters high and long and heavy downpours in the coming three days." Local administrations and residents in the province were advised to remain alert for possible disasters such as floods and landslides caused by the worsening weather. Java would likely receive a sustained heavy downpour and all ships should be on the lookout for high waves, which could reach heights of 6 meters in the Java Sea, mainly in the waters between Semarang and Karimun Jawa in Central Java and between Gresik and Bawean in East Java. Floods could inundate the main streets in Surabaya.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Tropical Storm Dongo - the fourth of the season - dissipated a safe 1400 miles (2300 kilometers) to the east of Madagascar early Tuesday.
A warmer than average southern hemisphere summer could mean fiercer storms for cyclone-prone Madagascar this year.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - Weeklong rains have triggered flash floods, landslides and sea surge across the Philippines, leaving at least nine people dead and another nine missing. Six family members were killed in a landslide over the weekend in Northern Samar province, while a small boat with seven on board was reported missing in rough seas. A powerful sea surge of nearly 4 to 7 metres washed away about 150 coastal houses in La Union province north of Manila on Sunday but there were no casualties.

FIJI - The two major highways in the Northern division, Savusavu-Seaqaqa and Nabouwalu-Labasa have been closed because of massive landslides. Eight landslides occurred along the Sagani Road which is on the Savusavu-Seaqaqa highway. Latest reports also reveal that another landslide occurred in Nawaca village in Bua. The roads will be closed indefinitely. Residents early this morning say that water from the Labasa river reached the nearby Grand Eastern Hotel at around 3am, although it was low tide. Last night close to 430 people were taking shelter at 22 evacuation centres.
Heavy rain sparked fresh flash floods Tuesday in Fiji, where thousands of people huddled in emergency shelters. Fijian authorities have issued a severe flood warning for the whole island group, following days of heavy rain in the Pacific nation.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
U.S. - Shocking cold wave drops temps to 40 below zero. Temperatures crashed to Arctic levels Tuesday as a severe cold wave rolled across the upper Midwest on the heels of yet another snowstorm, closing schools and making most people think twice before going outside. Thermometers read single digits early in the day as far south as Kansas and Missouri, where some areas warmed only into the teens by midday. The ice and snow that glazed pavement was blamed for numerous traffic accidents from Minnesota to Indiana, where police said a truck overturned and spilled 43,000 pounds of cheese, closing a busy highway ramp during the night in the Gary area. The bitter cold snap was responsible for at least one death Tuesday. The weather service warned that exposed flesh can freeze in 10 minutes when the wind chill is 40 degrees below zero or colder. In Minnesota, at about 8 a.m., temperatures were minus 40 in International Falls and minus 35 in Roseau. Farther south, Minneapolis hit 18 below zero with a wind chill of 32 below and black ice was blamed for numerous accidents. In neighboring North Dakota, Grand Forks dropped to a RECORD LOW of 37 below zero Tuesday morning, lopping six degrees off the old record set in 1979. The leading edge of the cold air was expected to strike the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and South late last night and today. And meteorologists warned that a second wave could drop temperatures into the single digits Thursday and Friday in the mid-Atlantic region. The storm that blew through the upper Midwest on Monday dropped 6 inches of snow on Minot, N.D., on top of about a foot that fell late last week, and Bismarck collected 4 inches. Bismarck, Fargo and Grand Forks all BROKE SNOW RECORDS FOR DECEMBER, each with more than 30 inches. They were outdone by Madison, Wis., which accumulated A RECORD 40 inches for the month

ALASKA - Federal meteorologists foresee a continuing cold winter for Alaska, followed by an unpredictable spring. But when June arrives, temperatures should turn warmer than normal. At least that's the most recent long-range forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., which correctly called Alaska's recent cold snap. Colder-than-normal surface sea temperatures off the south coast of Alaska -- which forecasters blame for diverting the polar jet stream farther north and making Alaska bitterly cold over the past three weeks -- should modulate by summer if the South Pacific warms first. Then the warmer-than-normal air temperatures that have prevailed over Alaska for most of the past decade -- "the 10-year trend" -- would have a chance to return. "It's kind of like the old persistence thing. If it's been warm, it just often times continues to be warm." Most recently, of course, Alaska has been anything but warm. The recent cold snap in Anchorage brought 11 straight days of double-digit negative temperatures to town -- while 2008 as a whole in Anchorage ranked as THE COLDEST YEAR IN A DECADE. "My retort to that would be: Well, one year doesn't make a trend." From May through August last year, Anchorage recorded its lowest average daily temperature -- 52.5 degrees -- in a quarter century. Ocean temperatures are currently more than a half-degree colder than normal off the west coast of South America -- a condition scientists call "La Nina" (the meteorological opposite of "El Nino," when sea temperatures there are warmer than normal). Besides changing weather patterns all across North America, a persistent La Nina also tends to cool sea temperatures off the coast of Alaska, which can lead to the creation of a massive high-pressure ridge in the center of the Bering Sea. When that happens in winter, the ridge can force the Alaska-bound polar jet stream to bend north, where it further cools before swinging back south through the Interior of Alaska, trailing Arctic air. In the summer, the same high-pressure ridge in the Bering Sea can prompt the jet stream to pummel Anchorage with clouds. "So basically we get more storms in the Gulf of Alaska during the summer and we produce more southerly flow of clouds -- which then results in cooler temperatures in Anchorage." "Once you get the ocean playing along with the atmosphere, it kind of gives you some level of persistence, and now we expect (colder than normal Alaska temperatures) to last through the winter and probably through some of the early part of spring." On the other hand, if the South Pacific surprises everyone and grows cooler rather than warmer this spring -- thereby developing a strong La Nina -- then all bets are off.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Rainfall trends generally over the five or six years illustrate the shift in seasons that has seen a much drier winter, a later start to summer and a cool Christmas-New Year period. The local weather pattern could almost be said to be resolved now into six two-month seasons: Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter, second Spring/Autumn, second Winter. Much of Victoria and the adjacent areas of South Australia and New South Wales have now experienced below-average rainfall for most of the past twelve years. Most regions of the continent experienced a warmer year than usual, apart from Queensland, north-east New South Wales and the Kimberleys. Particularly high temperatures were recorded across inland Western Australia and the Northern Territory in January 2008, as well as in western Victoria and southern South Australia in March, with a record-breaking heat wave during the first half of that month.

Obama urged to spend billions on weather research - Weather scientists on Tuesday urged Barack Obama to spend $9 billion on satellites and research to prepare for hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires and examine links between destructive weather and climate change. Last year, Hurricanes Ike and Gustav roared over Louisiana and parts of Texas, killing dozens of people, destroying homes and disrupting oil and gas production. The United States needs a new generation of weather observation satellites to replace aging systems and provide better forecasting and climate analysis, the scientists said. "We do not have sufficient (weather observing) satellites already manufactured to continue beyond the middle of the next decade. If we lose that satellite capability, we set back forecasting by 30 years." Climate scientists also are seeking to boost the computer power for climate research and prediction, and funding for research into the relationship between weather and climate change.

HEALTH THREATS -

Tuesday, January 13, 2009 -

My definition of an expert in any field is a person who knows enough about what's really going on to be scared.
P. J. Plauger

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/12/09 -
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone DONGO was 900 nmi SE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

FIJI - Thousands of tourists have been warned to stay put in storm-ravaged Fiji as rising rivers threaten to burst their banks, triggering more flash flooding. Officials say a "major depression" is headed for the main island of Viti Levu, following four days of torrential rain triggered by tropical storms typical in the South Pacific's wet season. At least six people are dead and 6000 have been displaced from their homes so far. It is THE MOST SEVERE BIG WET IN DECADES. "This is the type of rain that comes once in a hundred years. This is very full on, incredibly extreme. We need to take extreme care now." Heavy rains and flooding are forecast for the entire country over the next two days, accompanied by winds of up to 100km/h. "We have rivers threatening to spill their banks, and we don't expect the waters to recede for days, and in fact they will probably still rise. " The Fijian dairy and sugar industries have taken a battering from the storms, with several villages swamped and power and water supplies cut in some areas.

AUSTRALIA - Far north Queensland swamped by Cyclone Charlotte, king tide. Highways are cut and entire towns are isolated as the "double whammy" of ex-tropical-cyclone Charlotte and king tides wreak havoc on far north Queensland. Thousands of people are on standby to be evacuated as residents and business owners, swamped by waist-deep floodwaters, brace for a possible second deluge today in the face of torrential rain and a 3m king tide. Cairns, Port Douglas, Mossman and Innisfail recorded between 200mm and 400mm of rainfall yesterday as experts warn the deepening monsoon trough is likely to flood a 500km stretch of coastline from Mossman to the Burdekin in the next few days. Hundreds of homes in Cairns were flooded and sandbagged yesterday. Hundreds more were put on alert as the Barron and Mulgrave rivers continued to rise and water ran more than half a metre above the Copperlode Dam spillway. The Bruce Highway was cut by flash flooding between Cairns and Tully and scores of roads across the far north were more than 1m under water yesterday. Townsville and its surrounding areas are now also bracing for flooding as the threat moves south. The low-lying towns of Tully, Ayr and Ingham are in the firing line. The damage bill from monsoonal floods and Cyclone Charlotte is set to surge into the tens of millions of dollars as rain continues to fall across the north of the state. Floods that hit the northwest from Mount Isa to the Gulf coast last week have already inflicted $22 million damage. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MOZAMBIQUE - Torrential rains have killed 25 people in central Mozambique in the last two weeks and flooding could devastate the region by March. Thousands of homes have been destroyed and authorities are setting up emergency shelters. Roads, bridges and electricity pylons in four provinces have been damaged. The Zambezi River in central Mozambique, which stretches 500 km (300 miles) through four provinces, is now above flood alert levels, swelled by rains in neighboring Malawi and Zambia. In early 2007, floods in central Mozambique killed 45 people and left 285,000 homeless, while cyclone Favio displaced another 140,000 people. It was the worst flooding to hit the former Portuguese colony since floods in 2000-2001 killed 700 people and drove half a million from their homes.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ALASKA - An avalanche which knocked down a transmission tower forced Juneau into a city-wide blackout for nearly two hours. About 15,000 homes and businesses lost power Monday. This is the second avalanche within a year to temporarily knockout power at the state's capital. An avalanche last April took out transmission lines in the same area, forcing the city to rely on diesel power for weeks. Rain with warmer temperatures are melting 51 inches of snow that have fallen this month, causing street drains to overflow.

THAILAND - A severe cold snap in Thailand has prompted authorities to declare an emergency zone across more than half of the country normally renowned for its tropical weather. Local media have reported up to five deaths as a result of exposure to UNUSUALLY COLD conditions. The temperature in Bangkok fell to 15C yesterday - cold for the capital, but still far off its record low of 11C recorded in 1974. "Because the high pressure from China keeps coming, the cold weather will stay in Bangkok at least until this weekend." Today, most parts of north and northeast saw temperatures below 14C coupled with strong winds, with a mountain in northern Chiang Mai provinces recording a temperature of 4C.

UNITED KINGDOM - A whole generation of frogs has been wiped out and rare plant species decimated after sub-zero temperatures gripped a Cornish wilderness. The Lizard peninsula is home to some of Britain's rarest flora and fauna, many of which have adapted to flourish in the unique conditions. But as mild winter weather last week gave way to THE SEVEREST FROSTS IN DECADES, the ground was turned rock solid and shallow water froze – killing off plants and animals. "Any frost is a RARE occurrence and many of the rare and unusual flora and fauna unique to The Lizard only occur here because frosts are so unusual. Species like the frogs have adapted their lifecycles to make the most of the mild winters, breeding in October rather than the more usual spring. The wet summer and autumn looked like it was going to be a bumper year for the frogs, until the severe frost arrived and froze the tadpoles into blocks of ice." Data from the Met Office recorded a temperature of –7.8 on the night of January 6, THE COLDEST THERE FOR 20 YEARS. Scientists fear for the delicate balance of nature in places like The Lizard as climate change made weather patterns more erratic. The frost has also made life difficult for one of The Lizard's most celebrated, but elusive, wild residents – the Cornish chough. The iconic birds usually feed by poking their beaks into the ground and rummaging for invertebrates. But the frozen ground has made it impossible for the bird to feed. It is also feared that the frost penetrated deep into the soil, potentially affecting some winter annuals.

As cities from Chicago to London deal with an UNUSUALLY bitter winter, weather records show that 2008 was one of the cooler years in the last decade. And the early months of 2009 are shaping up as "numbing" in the United States, according to the Farmer's Almanac, that nearly 200-year-old source of traditional weather lore. The chilly weather has fueled arguments that man-made global warming is bunk. But most meteorologists say climate change shows little sign of slowing, and they blame our shivering misery this season on two key factors: normal variation in weather, which happens on a much shorter scale than climate shift, and short memories, or a gradual shift in what we think of as "normal" winter weather. Britain this year has had its coldest start to winter in 30 years, with temperatures 5 degrees below average, but "this would have felt like a warm year as recently as the 1980s, and an exceptionally warm year in Victorian times." Britain's recent deep freeze - its COLDEST SPELL SINCE 1996 - is due to stalled weather patterns that have funneled in frigid air from Siberia and from continental Europe, which is also shivering after years of unusually mild winters. Stalled or UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS also have contributed to remarkable snow and cold in Chicago and across much of the United States this winter. So far, this winter has been the 22nd coldest in 139 years of record-keeping in Chicago, and the fourth-snowiest in 124 years of records. On Thursday, Chicago could see its first subzero high temperature in nearly 13 years. The intensity of the cold and snow over the past two winters is raising some questions about how well scientists understand the interaction of an array of weather-changing forces, from sunspots to volcanic activity. One reason the last two winters have been chillier than normal, climate scientists say, is a cyclical change in Pacific Ocean currents known as La Nina. In La Nina years, cold ocean currents rise to the surface near the equator, often causing cooler winters in northern regions like the United States. An opposite warming effect occurs in El Nino years. Meteorologists say La Nina phase in the Pacific is now ending, and some predict that by 2010 the world should again be seeing some of the warmest years on record. But other meteorologists see evidence of an UNUSUAL SECOND LA NINA on the rise in the Pacific, which could extend the current stretch of colder-than-average winters. "It's a very complex puzzle, this whole climate thing." Whether this is a simply a temporary break from a long-term rise in planetary temperatures or a new, not-well-understood winter trend isn't entirely clear.

Leading climate models have seemingly reached a consensus that late-in-the-season La Nina conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific. The La Nina is likely to continue into the northern hemisphere spring. The Tokyo-based Frontier Research Centre for Global Change has gone a step further and forecast that this ‘cooling event’ (compared to the warming El Nino) over the Pacific might extend into early 2010. The La Nina may have been in the making as early as October 2008, say some researchers. This might have had a say on winter climes which have been late to arrive over northwest India and lacking in marked rainfall events in what resembles a play-out of conditions during the comparable period last year. Anomalous atmospheric convection in La Nina winters causes high pressure to develop over the Mediterranean region - the source region for western disturbances (WDs) which determine the strength of the northwest Indian winter. The polar, northerly component of WDs (as against warm, moist southwesterlies) got magnified in the bargain, setting colder than normal winter over northwest India. A waxing and waning cold wave has accounted for more than 70 deaths until now in northwest India, but without any major rainfall event. Despite the UNUSUALLY late start to the La Nina, expected impacts during January-March 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. As for India, there is near-model consensus of slightly above normal rainfall for the southern parts during December-January-February 2009. La Nina is conventionally known to impact the monsoons over the sub-continent but without direct cause-effect relationship.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

A survey of 80 international climate scientists reveals 54% consider recent climate developments so dire that attempts at geo-engineered mitigation, or "Plan B", are unavoidable. About 35% disagreed with the need for a "Plan B", arguing that it would distract from the main objective of cutting CO2 emissions, with the remaining 11 per cent saying that they did not know whether a geo-engineering strategy is needed or not. Attempts at geo-engineering, aimed at artificially reducing solar radiation, include artificially increased albedo (reflection) of the stratosphere, probably over the Arctic circle where ice melt and albedo loss are fastest. This could be achieved by injection of sulphur dioxide aerosols, possibly shot from guns or mixed in jet fuel of planes over-flying polar regions. The effects would be similar to volcanic events, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption which resulted in cooling of the Earth surface by about 0.5 degrees C for a couple of years. Other means of increasing the Earth albedo include dissemination of aluminum particles in or above the stratosphere, or installation of large solar reflectors in space. Other proposed methods include ocean fertilization with iron filings, enhancing algal and phytoplankton growth and photosynthetic CO2 capture, cloud seeding by atomized sea water sodium pipe systems ("trees") sequestering CO2 to sodium carbonate, and vertical ocean-wide pipe systems to help pump cold CO2-absorbing water to the surface. All these methods risk yet unforeseeable complications and side effects, including "collateral damage". That an interest grows in atmospheric geo-engineering underpins the bankruptcy of international attempts at emission cuts. The astronomical costs of proposed geo-engineering methods make mockery of the economy-based arguments raised by business and governments against deep reduction in carbon emissions (while trillions are used for military purposes and the rescue of bankrupt financial institutions). The time for "business as usual" is nearly over.

Monday, January 12, 2009 -

It is possible to fail in many ways...while to succeed is possible only in one way.
Aristotle

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/11/09 -
5.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

COSTA RICA - Toll from Thursday's 6.1 quake jumps to 34 dead, 64 missing.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
VIETNAM - High waves destroyed at least 27 seaside houses in a southern Vietnamese resort at the weekend and were threatening more than 100 more. There were no immediate reports of any casualties from Phan Thiet town, about 200km east of the southern business hub of Ho Chi Minh City. The buildings were destroyed when high waves pounded the shoreline, causing tens of thousands of dollars worth of damage. In Ho Chi Minh City, meanwhile, high waves today broke part of a sea dyke, flooding more than 200 households.

INDONESIA - Hundreds feared drowned in the cyclone-whipped seas off the island of Sulawesi today after a passenger ferry was capsized by FREAK storm waves. Search teams said the prospects were becoming bleaker with every passing hour as treacherous winds and torrential rains continued to blight efforts. The overnight ferry, bound for the island of Borneo, was carrying around 260 passengers and crew as it ran into atrocious tropical weather at 4am local time. Sulawesi is currently in the grip of its annual rainy season, which has been especially destructive this year and already claimed several lives on land and sea. As the ship struggled to ride-out the storm waves, survivors who later made it to the safety of a nearby vessel have described a massive, four-metre high wall of water smashing into the ship and turning it over. More than half of the passengers are understood to have pitched themselves into the sea in the terrifying few moments before the boat sank, but authorities said it was not clear how many were trapped in the ship as it went down. 18 people have been rescued alive, but fears are rising that scores of others will be found dead. High seas are hampering intensified rescue efforts by navy and air force. The area has been buffeted by storms, heavy rains and high winds for several days, causing flash flooding in some areas.

PHILIPPINES - Almost a hundred houses were destroyed or damaged by huge waves which hit a coastal barangay in La Union province Saturday evening. 77 houses were reported totally destroyed while ten houses were damaged after huge waves pounded Barangay Alaska in Aringay town in La Union. Almost 500 residents were reported to have lost their homes. There was no reported casualty in the incident. Residents said the huge waves have already reached 100 meters inland from the coastline. They said the high tide may have caused the huge waves. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm CHARLOTTE was 257 nmi W of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone DONGO was 826 nmi ESE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte has been downgraded to a tropical low as it loses intensity over Queensland's Gulf Country.
About 100 homes in Cairns have been flooded following torrential rain from Cyclone Charlotte.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRAZIL - RECORD LIGHTNING TOLL - 75 people were killed by lightning strikes in Brazil in 2008. It was an increase on 2007, when 47 deaths were reported. There are on average more than 50 million lightning strikes in Brazil each year. The number of lightning strikes was also higher in 2008, passing 60 million, principally in the north and north-east of the country. The reasons for the rise in the figures are uncertain, but the space agency says the weather phenomenon known as La Nina could have changed wind patterns in a way that favours the formation of storms. The level of lightning strikes in Brazil is predicted to remain high in 2009 - and there have already been four deaths reported in the state of Bahia.

WASHINGTON - Flooding -- SOME OF THE WORST ON RECORD in Washington state -- was touched off by a combination of heavy rain of 6 inches or more and a warm spell in the mid-40s that rapidly melted the snow in the Cascade Mountains. More than 30,000 people were urged to evacuate their homes in low-lying areas from the Canadian border all the way to the Oregon line, as rivers spilled over their banks and flooded neighborhoods. Residents of some low-lying areas are only beginning to tackle the cleanup of their sodden homes. The risk of landslides will continue as the ground continues to be saturated. "Because of some UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES, you could see some flooding in the mouths of rivers."

MALAYSIA - About 5000 residents from nine villages in Jalan Singai, Bau were cut off due to landslides and floods.

PHILIPPINES - the New Year started with big floods. There was no surprise when the media reported that more than 6,000 people were stranded in Northern Samar. Passengers who were trying to catch the ferry boat from Sorsogon to the town of Allen, Northern Samar, were prevented by floods and huge waves. Several towns in Capiz suffered a repeat of the big floods which hit Panay last year. On Friday, in Catanduanes, 9,000 families were displaced by a deluge of wind and rain. What is surprising is the news that 5,000 families were displaced in Cagayan de Oro due to landslides and overflowing of the Kagay-an River. Surprise of surprises, several towns in Negros Oriental, including Dumaguete City, were hit by flash floods! These two areas are not flood-prone. Dumaguete is hardly visited by storms. This is largely due to the presence of the towering peaks of Mount Talinis (Cuernos de Negros), which shield the city and the town of Valencia from the fury of strong winds. Some barangays of Valencia were flooded. Its two large rivers occasionally overflow their banks, but this is the first time that some houses were swept away. It used to be that floods were largely associated with storms. Now, even without storms, floods are unleashed by continuous rains. Provinces which are typhoon-free are now visited by floods. These disturbing phenomena can only mean one thing: Climate change is now upon us. We are confronted not only with an economic crisis. The warnings of Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, Leonardo di Caprio’s The Eleventh Hour and GMA Channel 7’s Signos are now materializing. More than 20 storms usually visit the country in a year. This time, however, it is different. Storms are earlier than their usual schedule. Floods are happening simultaneously in different provinces. It is obvious that the usual national-government response of distributing rice and canned goods will not be enough. It is also clear that the national system of disaster preparedness has to be strengthened.

CANADA - In British Columbia, Chilliwack and Abbotsford were the "bull's-eye" for a wave of heavy rain through much of the week - a total 150 to 200 millimetres over 36 hours. "That's an EXTRAORDINARY amount of rain. I work with extreme weather situations and that much rain in that part of the valley is VERY UNUSUAL. " The rain came down on over a metre of snow on the ground - an amount UNSEEN IN DECADES. "Virtually all of that snow melted, which added another 30 to 40 or 50 millimetres of snowbelt water. The combination of those two things I have not actually seen before. To have that much snow down to ocean level, and then have that snowpack immediately followed by one of these pineapple express fronts ...," referring to a storm system that draws its moisture from the western Pacific, as far as Hawaii. There have been a dozen mudslides in the region and roads have been washed away. No one has been injured, but 45 homes have been evacuated in Chilliwack, and an additional 20 in the surrounding area.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Perth has sweltered through the second-hottest-start-to-the-year-ever record with a two-week heatwave keeping temperatures in the high 30's.

Sunday, January 11, 2009 -

Short update today.

QUAKES -
1/10/09 -
None 5.0 or over.

1/9/09 -
5.2 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.1 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.5 CARLSBERG RIDGE

COSTA RICA - The number of people killed from an earthquake in Costa Rica rose to 34 on Saturday, most died in landslides.
Rescuers intensifed searches in mountainous areas of central Costa Rica after the 6.1 earthquake. The quake occurred on Thursday at Poas Volcano National Park north of the capital, San Jose, and caused landslides to block roads and damage buildings. At least 40 people are still missing, and hundreds have sought refuge. The quake, reported to be ONE OF THE STRONGEST TO HIT COSTA RICA IN 150 YEARS, was felt across the country and knocked down homes in San Jose. (photo)

2008 saw notable increase in moderate Southern California earthquakes - There were 267 quakes of magnitude 3 or greater in 2008 in Southern California and the northern portion of Baja California, up from 125 in 2007. 2008 had the highest number of such quakes of any year since 1999. Seismologists say such clusters could indicate a bigger temblor to come -- but then again, maybe not. It appears Southern California is waking up from a steep drop-off in seismic activity so far this decade. "It looks more like we're returning to a more normal rate. The last 15 years was one of the quietest times we've had in terms of [magnitude] 3's, 4's and 5's." But the shift underscores one of the more perplexing elements of seismology: That quakes tend to happen in clusters, but not in any patterns that are easy to understand. The clusters often come and go cyclically, but it's not clear whether they are laying the groundwork for a major quake.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone CHARLOTTE was 330 nmi W of Cairns, Australia.
Cyclone DONGO was 642 nmi E of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
FIJI - severe storms brought widespread flooding with at least six people feared dead. Thousands were evacuated from their homes and those living in low-lying areas were advised to move to higher ground as rivers burst their banks. More than 2340 people are sheltering in evacuation centres. The Fiji Meteorological Service warned of further heavy rain and strong winds for the northern parts of the country.

Friday, January 9, 2009 -

Facts are stupid things.
Ronald Reagan

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/8/09 -
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G
6.1 COSTA RICA

COSTA RICA - A strong 6.1 earthquake on Thursday killed at least two people. Two sisters were buried in a landslide triggered by the tremor, centred some 35km (22 miles) north-west of the capital San Jose. Reports say the quake - which hit at 1321 (1921 GMT) - left several people injured in villages north of San Jose. The earthquake cut off electricity in parts of the capital and officials reported damage to roads and houses. At least five strong aftershocks were felt or reported after the first tremor.

VOLCANOES -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - A puffing volcano in Papua New Guinea has forced a local airport to abandon operations. A rumbling crater means hundreds of people have not been able to leave, or fly into East New Britain province. Ever since the huge eruption in 1994, Mt Tavurvur has continually spewed ash, smoke and rocks from its crater. A north-west wind is pushing plumes of thick black smoke in the direction of Tokua airport 20 kilometres away. Air Niugini has cancelled all flights to Tokua until further notice because of the danger the ash poses to aircraft engines.

YELLOWSTONE - Is Yellowstone's 'super volcano' about to blow up? The super volcano in Yellowstone Park, which includes parts of the states of Wyoming, Idaho and Montana, is making its presence felt. On New Year's Day, the situation was so alarming that geologists called for an immediate evacuation of an area within a radius of 325 kilometres around the national park. At a rate of four tremors per hour, an eruption appeared imminent. The tremors have subsided slightly since 1 January, but it would appear the beast is slowly coming awake. The volcano's caldera, which accounts for much of the park's terrain, measures about 40 by 60 kilometres. About 10 kilometres beneath the surface, a giant reservoir is slowly filling up with magma. Through cracks and fissures, some of its heat rises to the surface in the form of steam and gas, creating the geysers the park is so famous for. Since a few days ago, it has become abundantly clear this volcano is no longer dormant. "Yellowstone sits atop a reservoir filled with a highly viscous sort of magma, which can not simply flow away through cracks, which means that the gases produced by the magma cannot escape and the pressure keeps building. Also, the magma wants to rise up; after all, the gases it contains reduce its specific gravity, and at some point in time the layers of rock on top the reservoir will simply be blown away in a gigantic explosion." In the week prior to 28 December, the number of tremors in the area steadily increased to a maximum of 103 a day. In the week after, the number was still 10 a day. Park rangers and visitors could feel the tremors for miles around. Similar series of tremors have been registered before. In 1985, and also in 2004, the tremors came so hard and so fast, they were nearly impossible to count, and the ground in the park was so hot, that it melted the soles on people's shoes. Three thousand moose did not live to tell the tale. But the tremors eventually subsided. The next major alert was raised in 2007: the bottom of the volcano's bowl-shaped caldera was rising by seven centimetres a year, clear evidence of mounting pressure in the magma chamber underneath.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - Sodden north Queensland is bracing itself for its first cyclone of the season this weekend. After years of drought, the big wet has arrived, and most of state's north-west is under water. Forecasters say the low system in the Gulf of Carpentaria is not yet a cyclone but warn it could develop by Sunday. Cyclone or not, the system will dump heavy rain on Cape York, causing flooding before it moves into the Coral Sea. The rainfall will coincide with ABNORMALLY high tides along the Gulf of Carpentaria coastline. The system is expected to bring falls of several hundred millimetres of rain from Townsville to Cooktown.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WYOMING - Another avalanche hit a restaurant building at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort but caused no damage. The avalanche occurred Wednesday morning and was triggered by resort ski patrollers after more than a foot of new snow fell the previous day. On Dec. 29, a slide swept into the same building at the top of a gondola lift, causing some damage to the building and briefly trapping five ski patrol members. No one was injured.

WASHINGTON - A Pineapple Express roared into Washington State Tuesday, shooting the freezing level up to peak tops, dropping heavy rains, and battering resorts with high winds. Mountain passes closed due to flooding, washouts, mudslides, avalanches, and extreme potential for even more avalanches. Ski areas were closed, and one suffered damage from a slide. Most of the Cascades received 24-50 inches of snow in January's first few days. But freezing levels on Monday skyrocketed, ushering in heavy rains and strong winds. A foot of rain pelted mountain passes and ski resorts - water that seeped through snow layers, significantly increasing the avalanche danger by Wednesday. "We had UNUSUAL snow pack structure develop this year with its weakest point at the base of the snow pack. Really cold mountain temperatures just piled up more and more snow on top of that weakness. That set the stage. We don't often develop that weakness to this extent, and we've been concerned about that deeper instability for some time." Avalanche and flooding danger had mounted to extreme by Tuesday, forcing the Washington Highway Department to close all mountain passes for safety. Most ski resorts were further isolated by Wednesday evening, cut off by avalanches and mudslides. Water flooded onto roadways, and pavement eroded away in washouts. Mission Ridge was the only resort whose access road remained open, but the resort closed Thursday due to winds. The storm, which pounded other ski areas with rain, hit hurricane-force gusts of 121 mph Tuesday night at Mission Ridge. "Winds sheered off a light tower and snapped off a dozen trees blown onto runs."
Flooding throughout the Puget Sound region cut off nearly all rail connections on Thursday.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Half the world's population could face food crisis by 2100 as soaring temperatures cripple staple crops, scientists warn. Rapid warming is likely to reduce primary food crop yields in the tropics and subtropics by 20-40%. The most extreme summers of the last century will become the norm. We must urgently create crops tolerant to heat and drought if we are to adapt in time. "The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge. And that doesn't take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures." They calculate there is greater than 90% probability that by 2100, the average growing-season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will be HIGHER THAN ANY TEMPERATURES RECORDED THERE TO DATE. "We are taking the worst of what we've seen historically and saying that in the future it is going to be a lot worse unless there is some kind of adaptation." Crop failures would not be limited to the tropics. "I think what startled me the most is that when we looked at our historic examples there were ways to address the problem within a given year. People could always turn somewhere else to find food. But in the future there's not going to be any place to turn unless we rethink our food supplies. You can let it happen and painfully adapt, or you can plan for it. You could also mitigate it and not let it happen in the first place, but we're not doing a very good job of that." "We do have long enough to adjust to these kinds of temperature increases - they are well within our capabilities. But it requires a huge effort - much bigger than we are making currently - and it requires us to start now. We don't know where the tipping points are - they could come quite quickly." As the summers get hotter, "We can't just move all our crops north (or south) because a lot of crops are photosensitive. Flowering is triggered by day length - so you would run into all sorts of problems if you tried that. And even if Russia and Canada turn out to be the world's bread baskets, the cost of transporting the food to Africa will be too much. People in these areas can't afford food now."

COLORADO - 11000 residents of Boulder, Colo. evacuated yesterday amid raging wildfires that have scorched at least 1000 acres.

SPACE WEATHER-
Scientists hear mystery boom from space - Strange radio noise from distant cosmos is six times louder than expected. The roar is from the distant cosmos. Nobody knows what causes it. Radio waves are not sound waves; they are electromagnetic waves, situated on the low-frequency end of the light spectrum. Many objects in the universe, including stars and quasars, emit radio waves. But the newly detected signal is far louder than astronomers expected. There is "something new and interesting going on in the universe." The signal is measured to be six times brighter than the combined emission of all known radio sources in the universe. For now, the origin of the signal remains a mystery. Not only has it presented astronomers with a new puzzle, it is obscuring the sought-for signal from the earliest stars.

Thursday, January 8, 2009 -

Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.
Thomas A. Edison

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/7/09 -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 FIJI REGION
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

MEXICO - A 5.6-magnitude earthquake that rattled northern Mexico on Monday has produced a small separation of the peninsula from the continent, a Mexican scientist said Tuesday. "Though the earthquake was not related to the telluric movements reported in Indonesia, it generated a small peninsular separation." A great part of the peninsula continues to separate from the rest of the continent at a pace of even six centimeters per year. The earthquake occurred at 4:59 local time (1059 GMT) Monday, and its epicenter was in Cortes Sea, 115 km northwest to San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur at a depth of 18 km. The earthquake was also felt on the northern coast of Sinaloa and slightly in south Sonora. Authorities from Baja California Sur, Sinaloa and Sonora, did not report casualties or major damages, but inspection work was going on.

Earthquakes killed 88,070 people in 2008, the highest figure since 2004. The year's strongest quake was in Sichuan, China, on May 12. At least 69,185 people were killed, 18,467 left missing and presumed dead, and 374,171 injured as a result of the magnitude-7.9 quake. In 2008, killer quakes hit 14 countries on four continents, including China, Algeria, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, and Rwanda. The strongest quakes in the USA struck Alaska's Aleutian Islands on April 15 and May 1. Both were magnitude 6.6. Because the islands are sparsely populated, there was no damage. The next-largest was a magnitude-6.0 quake on Feb. 21 near Wells, Nevada, which injured three people and heavily damaged 20 buildings. A magnitude-5.4 temblor struck southeastern Illinois on April 18. It caused little damage but was felt throughout the central USA. The deadliest quake in the past four centuries was on Aug. 7, 1976, in Tangshan, China. Although the official death figure was 255,000, the estimated toll has been put as high as 655,000.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Experts predict tsunami along Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coast - Meteorological pundits in Pakistan have warned against a strong possibility of a tsunami-generating earthquake in the Mekran belt of the country’s coastline along the Arabian Sea, which is an active seismic zone, overlooking the Gulf region. However, they fear no major damage from jolts having their epicentres in the Hindu Kush range, like the ones Pakistan experienced twice last week. With a depth of around 173 km, the quakes measured 5.7 and 5.9 on the open-ended Richter Scale. “Shallow quakes cannot be ruled out, with their epicentres lying at the coastal areas of Balochistan province, causing a tsunami, as this seismic region has been silent and inactive since 1945." Such earthquakes, often having a depth of around 10km, are much more destructive for Pakistan than those originating from the Hindu Kush range. The last shallow earthquake in Balochistan waters, an 8.0 in 1945, caused a tsunami wave reaching a height of 40 feet in the Mekran fishing ports, killing more than 4,000 people in Pasni.The Mekran coast, covering almost the whole division and parts of Sindh province, can be badly hit by cyclones, because energy has continuously been piling up there without any discharge for the last 64 years. “We need not worry about the recent chain of the Hindu Kush earthquakes, though these were abnormal. But, definitely, we are concerned about the Mekran coast that needs the attention of the disaster management authorities."

AUSTRALIA - lifesavers have warned Gold Coast holidaymakers to beware of dangerous swimming conditions as unpredictable king tides arrive. High tides between 2.4 metres and 2.8 metres are expected between Friday, January 9 and next Thursday, January 15, while low tides could dip to 0.16 metres. Large tidal changes can cause stronger rips, increase the risk of being injured by exposed rocks or floating debris, as well as bringing a higher chance of being swept out to sea due to larger volumes of quickly moving water. Swimmers need to be careful on all Gold Coast beaches over the coming week, but Tallebudgera Creek and Currumbin Creek are likely to be the worst affected.

Tsunami-sensing birds - pheasants can sense coming earthquakes and tsunami disasters. Pheasants, one of the most beautiful pet birds in the world, are of Chinese origin. They have genetic links to the Indian Peafowl. The most significant feature of pheasants is their ability to sense the minutest movements in nature. In view of its faculty in sensing earthquakes and tsunamis, geologists install micro-chips on its heads to predict tsunamis and earthquakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - Queensland is in the midst of the "best looking cyclone set-up for a number of years". The first one could strike in the gulf as early as next week, with another possible over the Coral Sea. A low pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria could intensify in coming days. The system was already bringing heavy rainfalls to the area - 223 millimetres was recorded at Aurukun since yesterday - but it is unlikely to develop into a full-blown cyclone. "We definitely don't need another cyclone of Larry's intensity [2006], because in many ways we're still recovering...We had men coming in crying for months after, blokes who had been crushed by the cyclone. There were a number of suicides, families were torn apart and things were truly terrible. There has been a real downturn in the farming industry since then, especially cane farming, and a lot of the little guys got out of it completely."
According to one long-range weather forecaster, Queensland's far north will be battered by three strong cyclones before the end of March and one will be on par with Larry, which tore through the region in 2006. In the coming weeks, residents in regions including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay should expect at least one strong cyclone. The forecast is based on sun spot activity, or solar flares, as well as analysis of past weather activity across the state. "Sun spots are like volcanoes on the sun's surface and they affect the earth's atmosphere, so high activity brings flood rains and low activity results in drought conditions." Recent increased solar flare activity, "colossal" humidity across much of the state's north and recent strong storm activity points to a "above normal" cyclone season. Mr Walker says his track record - he claims he gets it right about 80 per cent of the time - should silence skeptical meteorologists who question his methods. "I predicted Larry and the wild storm activity in South-East Queensland late last year ... I forecast those severe storms as early as August and even upped my prediction as time went on and sun spot activity increased. The proof is in the pudding - our record is strong. I'm not too worried about what some pundits think - I don't play into politics." The Bureau of Meteorology, however, said it is only ever prepared to issue cyclone warnings up to three days at a time.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - A massive avalanche of dirt, snow and trees slammed debris into about eight houses and took out power lines and at least one ski lift on the east side of the Snoqualmie Pass summit Wednesday. "Three-quarters of the face has slid down the mountain." Two people were rescued from a home severely damaged in the slide. There were no reports of serious injuries. (photo)

ALASKA - Alaskans are accustomed to subzero temperatures but the prolonged conditions have folks wondering what's going on with winter less than a month old. High pressure over much of central Alaska has been keeping other weather patterns from moving through. New conditions get pushed north or south while the affected area faces daily extremes. "When it first started almost two weeks ago, it wasn't anything abnormal. About once or twice every year, we get a good cold snap. But, in this case, you can call this an EXTREME EVENT. This is RARE. It doesn't happen every year." Temperatures are so extreme in the statewide cold snap that frigid temperatures have grounded planes, disabled cars, frozen water pipes and even canceled several championship cross country ski races. In Stevens Village residents have endured close to two weeks of temperatures pushing 60 below zero. The cold has kept planes grounded. Food and fuel aren't coming in and they're starting to run low in the village, about 90 miles northwest of Fairbanks. In Anchorage, Alaska's largest city, residents are used to lows of about 10-degree temperatures in January — not 19 below zero, which is what folks awoke to Wednesday morning. Alaska is experiencing the third longest cold snap in its history with temperatures in some parts of in the interior dipping to -65 Fahrenheit.

EUROPE - Sub-freezing temperatures and EXCEPTIONAL SNOWFALL caused problems across much of Europe on Wednesday, temporarily closing Milan's two airports, halting trains in the normally sunny south of France and pressing into service ice breakers in the Dutch port of Rotterdam. A rare snowfall in France's normally sunny Cote d'Azur sent the national railway into crisis mode, halting trains in Provence as well as the Alps. Authorities stopped all buses in the port city of Marseille and closed surrounding highways, urging drivers to stay home. (photos)

CHINA - Freezing China is preparing to tackle paralysed roads and railways if icy weather seizes the south and centre in a possible repeat of last year's gridlock just as millions head home for the Lunar New Year holiday. The prospect of millions of migrant workers stuck in Guangdong and other big manufacturing provinces is especially worrisome this year amid the global financial crisis. State media have warned the abrupt economic slowdown could leave crowds of jobless and angry rural migrants milling around cities. And a transport shutdown would intensify those worries. Freezing rains and snow over past days have blocked some roads in the south, and officials have been ordered to brace for spreading harsh weather. Early last year, unusually icy weather hit stretches of the southern half, trapping millions of workers heading home for the Lunar New Year holiday and choking off power and transportation in regions that produce much of China's food and exports. Chaotic scenes of tens of thousands of frustrated workers stranded at railway stations and whole cities plunged into darkness from power cuts for days on end prompted criticism of the ruling Communist Party's disaster recovery. Highways in Hunan and Hubei provinces have again been disrupted by snow and ice in past days. Many parts of Henan, Anhui and Guizhou provinces had also been hit. This year may not see a full repeat of last year's sweeping freeze.

SPACE WEATHER-
A rare but not unprecedented "space weather Katrina" could cost the global economy $1 trillion to $2 trillion in the first year afterward as society's dependence on space and terrestrial networks that are vulnerable to solar weather continues to grow. "Because of the interconnectedness of critical infrastructures in modern society, the impacts of severe space weather events can go beyond disruption of existing technical systems and lead to short-term , as well as to long-term collateral socioeconomic disruptions. Although the probability of a wide-area electric power blackout resulting from an extreme space weather event is low, the consequences of such an event could be very high, as its effects would cascade through other, dependent systems." Among those "collateral effects" could be "disruption of the transportation, communication, banking and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure, and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of a lack of refrigeration." It will be difficult to sustain support for advances in prediction and mitigation because severe coronal mass ejections that hit Earth are so rare, yet they will occur again as they have in the past.

HEALTH THREATS -
China alert over bird flu death - Chinese authorities shut down and clean poultry markets in Hebei province, after the first human death in nearly a year.

Concern for California's pelicans - Wildlife experts are concerned about a mysterious illness affecting brown pelicans from San Diego to San Francisco. Dozens of the birds - bruised and disoriented - have been landing on highways, airport runways, farm fields and house backyards. The pelicans have been coming down many kilometres from their normal habitats. The cause is unknown. "Typically this time of year we would see a significant die-off of young brown pelicans. We are seeing a larger than normal die-off of adults." Sometimes this behaviour has been associated with domoic acid, a neurotoxin produced by marine algae (phytoplankton). The birds would take in the acid by eating fish and shellfish that have themselves ingested the algae. But the pelicans were not exhibiting the other symptoms typical of this problem. One theory is that the birds may have ingested chemicals from fire retardants used widely by emergency services recently to tackle severe blazes that ravaged the state. "By the end of the week, we'll have information that should tell us whether or not these animals test positive for phytoplankton toxins."

Wednesday, January 7, 2009 -

Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a mistake when you make it again.
Franklin P. Jones

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/6/09 -
6.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.1 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

California Earthquake Would Accelerate US Mortgage Meltdown - The Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report highlights that the lack of mandatory earthquake insurance in the state of California would result in high levels of mortgage defaults should an earthquake occur. Approximately 86 percent of Californian homeowners do not have earthquake coverage, despite most of them having mortgaged their homes. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake cost the mortgage industry up to US$400 million in mortgage defaults due to foreclosure expenses, property repair costs, lost interest income, write-downs of existing loan balances and other administrative costs.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PAPAU NEW GUINEA's National Weather Office has issued a flood warning for the capital Port Moresby and surrounding villages. The office said that they are expecting THE HIGHEST RISE IN SEA LEVELS EVER SEEN IN THE AREA. The highest tidal surge is expected to be 2.89 metres above sea level, and is likely to cause widespread flooding in the lowlands. The high tides began Monday and will rise and fall dramatically over the next two weeks. Last month, the PNG government declared a national disaster after a combination of king tides and high seas displaced tens of thousands of people across seven provinces.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

FIJI - Two weather systems currently over the Pacific island nation will deteriorate from Wednesday, causing heavy and widespread rain. The two systems moving towards the Fiji Group could develop into a cyclone by Friday.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
EUROPE - Snow, icy weather send deadly chills across Europe - Plunging temperatures sent shivers across Europe today, leading to the deaths of several people and a record number of calls to power companies in Britain because of heating problems. As the Paris area dug out from a RARE snowfall, the Eiffel Tower remained closed for a second morning, finally opening later in the day after hot air was used to clean off the powder from observation levels. In Poland, where overnight temperatures have plunged to minus 25 Celsius recently, 10 people froze to death over the past few days. German police also said that a 77-year-old mentally ill woman had apparently frozen to death near the town of Weimar. And the bitter chill killed two men and sent others to hospital in Romania on Sunday, where temperatures fell as low as minus 31 Celsius in the centre. The cold also indirectly caused the death of a 30-year-old woman in Linconshire in northeast England, after her car was hit by a train after stalling at a rail crossing. Meanwhile, heating problems shuttered many British schools, while repair services received a record number of cold-related calls. Further south, snow blanketed northern Italy, forcing Milan's airport to cancel or delay some flights.
UNITED KINGDOM - Temperatures plunged so low today that the sea actually began to freeze as Arctic conditions continued to grip the UK. In the exclusive enclave of Sandbanks in Poole, Dorset, the surf had frozen solid as the waves lapping the shore began to frost over. A half-mile stretch along the shoreline reaching about 20 yards out to sea is covered in ice on the expensive peninsula. In southern England, normally immune to the worst of the cold weather in winter, temperatures fell as low as -12C - and the chill will go on for several days according to forecasters. Benson in Oxfordshire and Chesham in Bucks were both close to -12C and the UK's coldest areas, with other large parts of the south also recording -9C and -10C. At Bury Fen, near St Ives, frozen fields gave villagers the chance to revive a speed-skating event which hasn't been held for ten years. The country was gripped by conditions more bitter than Iceland, 6C (43F); Greenland, 8C (46F) and the Antarctic which registered 3C (37F). By contrast, in England, the lowest temperature was -10.6C, at Shap Fell, Cumbria. Today, emergency cold weather payments for 600,000 in London, were triggered for the first time in a decade. The payments are made when the average temperature falls or is forecast to fall to 0c for seven consecutive days. Researchers who measured the power of the wind on the summit of Cairn Gorm mountain, near Inverness, were almost blown away by their results. On December 19, at Cairngorm Mountain sports centre, they recorded a 194mph gust - 17mph stronger than any registered in Britain - and only 37mph short of the world record, in New Hampshire, in the U.S, in 1934. (photos)

WASHINGTON - Roof collapses continued in the Spokane area, as rain falling on a RECORD SNOWPACK created massive weight loads. The Spokane area has been buried by 6.5 feet of snow since the middle of December. That included 7.5 inches that fell at Spokane International Airport on Monday, a RECORD FOR THE DATE. The roof at the Five Mile Business Park collapsed Tuesday morning, and a building behind it is also in danger of collapsing.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009 -

Experience teaches only the teachable.
Aldous Huxley

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/5/09 -
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

YELLOWSTONE - The recent earthquake swarm underneath Yellowstone National Park appears to be slowing down considerably. Yellowstone Volcano Observatory monitored close to 500 small earthquakes in the area during a six-day stretch. It had been THE MOST INTENSE SWARM OF EARTHQUAKES IN YELLOWSTONE SINCE 1985. Yellowstone National Park normally sees at least 1,000 earthquakes every year. "We saw half of a year's earthquakes in less than a week."

GREECE - Woman killed as wall collapses after tremor. An 18-year-old Romanian woman was killed and her 20-year-old boyfriend injured when the storage room where they had made their home in Messenia, the Peloponnese, collapsed on Sunday following a mild earthquake in the area. Pressure had built up on the wall after heavy rain in recent days had caused a large volume of debris to be washed up against it. The 4.0-magnitude earthquake struck at 7:10 am (0510 GMT) Sunday at sea off the Peloponnese, 195 kilometers (122 miles) southwest of Athens.

VOLCANOES -
Volcanoes cool the tropics, say researchers - but global warming may have helped override some recent eruptions. Big volcanic eruptions over the past 450 years have temporarily cooled weather in the tropics - but such effects may have been masked in the 20th century by rising global temperatures. Higher latitudes can be even more sensitive to volcanism. Some corresponding drops in northern regions following volcanism were up to three times greater. Higher latitudes' greater sensitivity appears to come from complex feedback mechanisms that make them vulnerable to temperature shifts. Scientists already agree that large eruptions have lowered temperatures at higher latitudes in recent centuries, because volcanic particles reflect sunlight back into space. For instance, 1816, the year following the massive Tambora eruption in Indonesia, became known as "The Year Without a Summer," after low temperatures caused crop failures in northern Europe and eastern North America. Data show that the most sustained cooling followed two events: an 1809 eruption that probably took place in the tropics, but whose exact location remains unknown; and the 1815 Tambora eruption, one of the most powerful recorded in human history.

ANTIGUA - An increase in activity at Montserrat’s Soufrière Hills Volcano has led to the evacuation of approximately 70 people and has sent a considerable amount of ash across to Antigua. Activity of the volcano increased drastically last Thursday when it emitted more explosions than normal. However, because the instruments used to monitor the volcano give very little in the way of warning, no overnight warning was issued to prepare inhabitants for the increased activity that occurred last Friday. Then, early last Saturday morning, two very explosive eruptions took place, one at 5 a.m. and the other at 7 a.m., local time. Both eruptions sent ash 12 to13 kilometres (approximately 356, 000 feet) high. The ash has travelled island wide and is particularly heavy in the south. “They are used to it to a certain extent. The most worrying thing is that we have to clean the ash." Since the 7:30 a.m. eruption, the volcano, which has been given a hazard level of four, has remained quiet. A few days of observation are needed in order to make any predictions on further activity. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteological Services confirmed that last Saturday’s ash fall was considerable. It was due to the high pressure system in the area at the time.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SPAIN - FREAK Weather Causes Devastation in the North. Four people have died as a result of severe weather conditions, which battered the north and east of the country. Cataluña was one of the areas which was worst affected by the storms, where two people were washed out to sea by enormous waves, the first whilst walking through the Port in Barcelona, and the other a man who was driving along the breakwater when his car was dragged into the sea. The fourth death occurred when a lady was washed off some rocks by a massive wave in the port of Gandía, Valencia. Meanwhile, strong winds and heavy snow fall also caused chaos on Spain's roads. Some 54 cars were involved in a multiple pile-up on the A8 in Muskiz in Vizcaya, when a FREAK HAIL hail storm impaired visibility. Fallen rocks close to the Montserrat monastery in Barcelona blocked the access road and resulted in 1,500 having to be evacuated by cable car, whilst seven further mountain passes were forced to remain closed to traffic because of the snow in Asturias and Burgos, and four in Cantabria. Roads were also affected by snowfall in Ávila and Girona. Finally, as many as 15 boats sank in the rough seas that battered the Catalan coast. Six boats were lost at Portbou in Girona and three more in L'Escala, where 1,500m of the Paseo Maritime also disappeared.

AUSTRALIA - Freak wave injures woman. A woman has been air-lifted to hospital after a giant wave pounded her onto the beach at the same spot a boy was injured last week. The woman was swimming at Guilderton beach near Moore River, 95km north of Perth, when a strong wave picked her up and dumped her onto the shore. The surf was kind of rough the whole morning and then it just got rougher and rougher and then this one big wave came through that was really strong." Last week a boy was air-lifted to Royal Perth Hospital after he was dumped by a wave and began convulsing on the beach.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Cattle up trees, roads swept away in Northern Territory flooding. In the Northern Territory's Barkly region, eight times more rain has fallen in one downpour than fell in the whole of last year. They've had about 450 millimetres since Saturday. In the 14 months previous, the area had received only 55 millimetres. The rain has devastated the region because of the dry conditions leading up to it. "There have been cattle swept away in the flood waters. Because we've had such a volume of rain in such a short period of time, although this country is very flat, the water's been very fast and that's where we've copped the most losses because there's cattle tangled in trees." The monsoonal rain is UNUSUALLY HEAVY, with massive falls in the Rankin and James River catchment areas. The Barkly Highway has been closed since Saturday and is likely to be cut off for some time. (photo)

VIETNAM - Central Vietnam reeling as unseasonal floods wreak havoc. Five people were swept away by floods in the central provinces of Binh Dinh and Quang Nam Saturday, bringing the death toll from unseasonal flooding to nine.

BRAZIL - Heavy rain has hit Santa Catarina state in southern Brazil since Friday, forcing 1,052 people to leave their homes and five towns to declare a state of emergency. The number of towns to declare a state of emergency is likely to increase, as 18 have already reported incidents caused by the rain. The municipalities of Nova Veneza and Ararangua were the most affected, and the level of the Ararangua River was 3.8 meters above normal. The rain has also affected the BR-101 federal highway, which is likely to remain blocked for another three to four days. Santa Catarina is still recovering from huge floods caused by a week of rain in late November. A total of 135 people died, six were reported missing, and more than 78,000 were forced to leave their homes.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
UNITED KINGDOM - Warnings issued amid Arctic chill - Severe weather warnings have been issued as temperatures in the UK dipped towards -10C (14F) overnight. Arctic weather continued its grip with lows of -10 forecast in Scotland and -9C (15.8F) in southern England. Severe weather warnings are in place for this morning for parts of south-east England and northern Scotland. The freezing conditions affected flights and closed some schools on Monday. Water firm Severn Trent has asked its eight million customers across the Midlands and Wales to protect their water systems, after it was reported pipes were freezing even while heating was on. The current freezing conditions have been caused by an outbreak of Arctic air which has swept across Scandinavia and over the North Sea. Temperatures are still a long way off the record low of -27C (-16.6F) in northern Scotland 14 years ago, and the current cold period is expected to ease later in the week.

POLAND - Extreme winter brings death to Poland. As the thermometer drops to -23 degrees Celsius in some parts of Poland, the casualty rate is increasing due to faulty heaters and gas fittings. Two men – a father and son – were discovered dead in Bytom, central Poland on Sunday and the condition of a female is said to be serious after falling victim to carbon monoxide poisoning. In Radomsko, central Poland, six people were seriously injured in an explosion due to poor gas connections. And a 71 year old man has died due to the extreme cold temperatures in Augustow, eastern Poland. He was found in an unheated attic by a social worker. The temperature was below -20 degrees Celsius in the city. Due to heavy snowfalls and extreme frost conditions on Polish roads are very difficult. Forty five people have died in road accidents and 383 injured in the last four days. In the north-western city of Szczecin low temperatures led to cracks appearing in water infrastructure pipes. Emergency services warn that similar failures are likely to occur any time under such extreme weather conditions. Temperatures of -20 degrees Celsius are to hold in Poland until Wednesday. The worst weather is to be expected in southern parts of the country.

HEALTH THREATS -
Ebola alert shuts Angolan borders - The authorities have closed the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo to prevent the spread of the deadly Ebola virus. The outbreak in DR Congo was the first in Africa in several months and the fourth in DR Congo since 1976. It is believed to have infected at least 40 people of which more than ten have died. Ebola is a highly infectious fever which causes vomiting, diarrhoea, and internal and external bleeding. The disease kills 80% of those it infects and there is no known cure.

Monday, January 5, 2009 -

If there is one principle more deeply rooted in the mind of every American,
it is that we should have nothing to do with conquest.
Thomas Jefferson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/4/09 -
5.9 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

INDONESIA - the series of powerful earthquakes have killed at least four people and injured dozens more in remote eastern Indonesia, cutting power lines and destroying buildings. One of the quakes - a 7.3-magnitude tremor - sent small tsunamis into Japan's south-eastern coast, but there were no reports of damage there and no tsunami in Indonesia's impoverished Papua area. Quakes were felt as far away as Darwin, Australia, but caused no damage there. The first 7.6-magnitude quake struck at 4.43am (0643 AEDT) on Sunday on land about 135km from Manokwari, Papua, at a depth of 35km. It was followed by 10 aftershocks. At least four people died in Papua, and the airport runway nearest the epicentre was cracked. Distressed residents ran out of their homes as the quake rattled Manokwari. Thousands of residents including children and the elderly could be seen thronging the roads of the town in the darkness of a blackout and heading away from the sea despite the tsunami warning being lifted. "The quake was quite strong and we felt it for about three minutes."

CANADA - Vancouver Island mini-earthquakes - Water trapped along the fault line running beneath Vancouver Island may be what's responsible for mini-earthquakes that hit the region every year or so, according to a new study. Vancouver Island lies atop the Cascadia megathrust fault line, which runs from the Island down to northern California. The Cascadia fault can be subject to extremely powerful earthquakes, but only rarely, about once every 500 years or so. The most recent occurred in January 1700. While the Island has not suffered a major earthquake in centuries, it is hit with tiny tremors - none of which are strong enough to be felt by people - about once every 14 months. The most recent such tremor occurred last May and continued for about a month. Seismic measurements taken by scientists suggest there is water trapped in the portion of the fault area that lies below the Island. Occasionally, after enough pressure builds up, some of that water escapes, which lubricates the tectonic plates and makes them more susceptible to slipping.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Japan's Pacific coast was lapped by minor tsunami waves on Sunday after the string of powerful earthquakes off Indonesia. Waves up to 40 centimetres (1.3 feet) reached the Pacific coasts of islands from the Okinawan chain to the main island of Honshu. The tallest of the waves were measured in Chichijima, about 1,000 kilometres (600 miles) south of Tokyo. There was the possibility of a tsunami repeating and overlapping into a larger scale four or five hours later.

WASHINGTON - Indian village moves to higher ground to escape flood, tsunami danger. Flooding used to be a problem every five or 10 years for the tiny Hoh Indian Reservation. These days it's an annual event. Sandbags permanently surround the tribal center and many homes because the nearby Hoh River has meandered dangerously closer over time. Meanwhile, most of the 443-acre reservation is less than 40 feet above sea level, and could be devastated by a major tsunami. So the Hoh Indians are trying to move to higher ground. "We're literally moving the village. We've known for a long time this has had to happen."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

PHILIPPINES - The country’s first tropical storm of the new year Sunday changed course after threatening Eastern Visayas and was moving away and over the Pacific Ocean at 7 kph. . Code-named “Auring,” the storm is expected to be barely felt in Metro Manila, which will only experience partly cloudy skies with occasional rainshowers. The storm also enhanced the northeast monsoon (locally known as the amihan), contributing to the cold weather the past few days. Nineteen “or less” storms and typhoons could hit the Philippines this year.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PHILIPPINES - The floods that hit three cities in Northern Mindanao have now affected at least 67,000 people. As of Sunday morning, at least 5480 families from 13 barangays (villages) were displaced by the flooding.

SOUTH AFRICA - The death toll of a "monstrous" overnight storm that devastated various parts of KwaZulu-Natal has risen to eight. "It's a very sad New Year for those affected and it's devastating to see the little food these people had being covered by mud. Many people have lost everything." The FREAK storm was described by residents and officials as ONE OF THE WORST THEY HAVE SEEN. Trees were uprooted, roofs caved in, walls and houses collapsed, and in some areas water mains had burst. "It's estimated that more than 300 households were affected which in essence means over 2,000 people." In recent months several similar storms had struck different parts of the province and destroyed homes, leaving thousands homeless. "This is not the first, and it might happen again. It's the climate change. Now we are planning ahead and we will work towards building human settlements that have more stable structures."

CLIMATE CHANGE-

In matters of climate, the unusual is becoming routine, as higher temperatures make weather patterns more unstable. "As a result of climate change, what would have once been an exceptionally unusual year has now become quite normal." The past year was the coolest year since 2000, but still is likely to rank as the 10th warmest year on record since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850. Last summer was relatively cool world-wide, while global land temperatures in October were the warmest for that month in more than a century. Taken together, the result was a year that ran slightly less than one degree warmer than the 20th century mean. Despite the ups and downs of annual temperature swings, though, the planet has grown steadily warmer in recent decades, affecting everything from New England winters and the Siberian spring to western droughts and tropical cloud cover. Almost all of the warming in North America has taken place since 1970. Looking beyond the variations of any single year, studies chronicle growing evidence of climate changes and suggest the effects of rising temperatures are accelerating. "I do believe we are entering a new state. Ice loss is happening faster than the climate models are showing." Since 2003, for instance, more than two trillion tons of land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted, adding enough water to oceans to raise global sea level by one-fifth of an inch. Alaska's low-lying ice fields are disappearing at two to three times the rate of a decade ago. Greenland's 32 largest glaciers lost three times as much ice last year as the year before. In another sign of polar thaw, researchers have detected new seeps of methane bubbling up from formerly frozen seafloor lodes along the Siberian coast. High-altitude tropical storm and rain clouds are increasing. At the present rate of warming, tropical storms can be expected to increase by 6% every 10 years. Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth most active in 64 years and the first to have a major hurricane in each month from July through November. There also were 1,700 tornadoes catalogued in the U.S. from January through November, ranking last year just behind 2004 for the most twisters recorded in a year. The tornado records date back to 1953. All in all, solar heat is the energy that drives the world's weather, and rising levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are allowing more of that energy to build up in the atmosphere every year. Many subtle changes in so many different places, building up decade after decade, add up to something more than the weather's natural variation. To a seasoned eye, day-to-day weather patterns now seem chaotic. "I wouldn't run for the hills. But it might be time to start walking."

Sunday, January 4, 2009 -

Panic does not require planning.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
1/3/09 -
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
7.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
7.7 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.9 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.0 TAIWAN
5.4 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
5.7 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1/2/09 -
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
1/1/09 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 BANDA SEA
12/31/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS

INDONESIA - A series of powerful earthquakes at dawn killed at least three people in remote eastern Indonesia, cutting power lines and badly damaging buildings. The first 7.6-magnitude quake struck at 4:43 am (1943 GMT Saturday), about 150 kilometres northwest of Manokwari and was followed almost three hours later by a 7.5 magnitude aftershock. The Indonesian Meteorology and Seismology Agency issued a tsunami alert, but it was revoked within an hour after it was determined the epicenter was on land.
A hotel in Indonesia's West Papua province collapsed when the second of two powerful earthquakes hit the region Sunday and three people were pulled alive from the rubble. Those three hotel guests returned to their room after the first big quake. They failed to evacuate after the second powerful quake struck and got trapped in the hotel rubble. Other buildings in the neighbourhood received only minor damage such as cracks to the walls.

AFGHANISTAN - a strong earthquake hit northeastern Afghanistan, a quake that rattled the capital Kabul for about a minute. The quake had a preliminary magnitude of 6.2 and was located in the northeastern province of Badakhshan in the Hindu Kush mountains. The area is often hit by earthquakes but is sparsely populated.

YELLOWSTONE still shaking one week after first tremor. The small earthquakes that began in the park a week ago continue. They include three more earthquakes Friday that measured stronger than magnitude 3.0. A quake of magnitude 3.5 happened at 11:30 a.m., followed by quakes measuring 3.2 and 3.1 at 12:40 p.m. and 1:15 p.m. Several hundred quakes centered under the north end of Yellowstone Lake have now occurred since last Friday. The strongest so far was a magnitude 3.9 quake last Saturday.
The USGS discounts chances for cataclysmic eruption of the caldera, noting that the hot, active magma chamber below Yellowstone has turned into "largely crystallized mush." But the same study also said: "Depending on the nature and magnitude of a particular hazardous event and the particular time and season when it might occur, 70,000 to more than 100,000 persons could be affected; the most violent events could affect a broader region or even continent-wide areas." A supervolcano event does not appear to be imminent. "We don't think the amount of magma exists that would create one of these large eruptions of the past...we would expect to see more and larger quakes, deformation and precursory explosions out of the lake. We don't believe that anything strange is happening right now."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
PHILIPPINES - About 400 people were stranded when three shipping companies suspended their trips to Leyte province due to strong winds and large waves that prevailed over the Visayas starting noon Friday. The cool weather and rains are part of the Amihan (northeasterly) monsoon. But weathermen are watching a low pressure area spotted over Eastern Visayas which may develop into a storm in the next few days. The weather disturbance is expected to bring in frequent rains in Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. No typhoon was spotted Friday but strong winds of 50 kilometers per hour and waves that measured six to 10 feet in open sea were recorded at noon. Under these conditions, sea travel is risky.
About 5,000 families in the southern Philippines have been displaced by flash floods and large waves spawned by heavy rains, officials said Saturday. Over a hundred houses have been destroyed and many people are fleeing their homes in the face of rising waters in the northern part of the southern island of Mindanao. Most of those whose homes were destroyed were from Cagayan de Oro city but officials were still trying to get information on the situation in the surrounding areas. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical cyclone "Auring" was estimated at 140 kilometers east of Surigao City, Philippines.

The Philippine Coast Guard on Sunday banned sea travel in 10 areas under Storm Signal No. 1 due to tropical depression "Auring." This, as at least 12,000 passengers have been stranded in areas in Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao affected by flash floods in recent days. At least two people were washed away in the Cagayan River. The cancellation of sea travels is a standard operating procedure since Typhoon "Frank" caused the MV Princess of the Stars tragedy in June 2008. The Coast Guard was surprised over the sudden threat posed by tropical depression "Auring," the first tropical cyclone to hit the country this year. "It is the first tropical depression this year, we did not expect this situation."
The low-pressure area spotted east of Northern Mindanao has intensified into the first tropical cyclone to enter Philippine territory for 2009. "Auring" was estimated at 140 kilometers east of Surigao City as of 6 p.m., even as Storm Signal No. 1 was raised over eight areas in Visayas and Mindanao. "Auring" packed maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and was moving west-northwest at 7 kph. By Sunday afternoon it is expected to be 90 kms northeast of Surigao City or 80 kms southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. By Monday afternoon it is expected to be 40 kms West of Tacloban City. By Tuesday afternoon it is expected to be 40 kms southeast of Masbate, Masbate.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - Unseasonal rains have hit HCM City and its neighbouring provinces over the last few days, creating ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERNS in the south. Unseasonal floods brought by rains this week have killed at least five people in central Vietnam while 10 others remained missing.

GUYANA - this South American country has been pounded by five weeks of rain. Nearly 40 inches (102 centimeters) of rain fell last month, DOUBLING THE PREVIOUS RECORD of 20 inches (51 centimeters) recorded in December 2005. Officials are helping farmers and trying to control a waterborne disease outbreak. Most of Guyana's coastline lies nearly 6 feet (1.8 meters) below the Atlantic. Towns are protected by canals drained in low tide. Guyana says it might postpone the first day of classes at 60 public schools along the coastline if RECORD RAINS persist.

OREGON - The National Weather Service warned of landslides and floods in large parts of Western Oregon.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
WASHINGTON - Heavy snowfall and an unstable snowpack in the mountains have created such an extremely high risk of avalanches that state transportation officials Thursday kept two major passes -- Stevens and White -- closed until they could reassess the danger Friday. The combination of an already weak snowpack, high winds and more snow or rain predicted for the mountains has created a dangerous and unstable situation. "This is fairly uncommon. Last year was the first year in quite some time we've had all three of the passes closed. ... We've had a tremendous amount of snow." "Some seasons we never have an extreme risk. This is PRETTY UNUSUAL. It's probably going to take awhile for this snowpack to stabilize." The center Thursday warned of "increasing extreme" risk of avalanches above 4,000 feet, where heavy snowfall has accumulated on top of a snowpack that, because of December's unusual cold and stormy weather, is prone to sliding. The risk is high everywhere, but extraordinarily dangerous at high elevations.

ARIZONA - Flagstaff has been blanketed with an UNUSUAL amount of snow this December, about 39 inches. The average amount of snowfall in December is 13.2 inches. Last year the area saw 25.4 inches.

UNITED KINGDOM - This year looks set to continue the record-breaking weather trends of 2008, after much of the country woke up to freezing conditions Friday. Parts of Leinster, Scotland saw temperatures as low as -6C as the New Year Big Chill continued. After ONE OF THE COLDEST DECEMBERS IN DECADES, the first month of 2009 is likely to experience a similar pattern. Freezing conditions will grip the country in the next week, with temperatures plummeting well below zero and snow falling on some areas. Experts in Britain have already forecast that THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE FIVE COLDEST JANUARIES ON RECORD.

SPACE WEATHER-
Gems Point to Comet as Answer to Ancient Riddle - Something dramatic happened about 12,900 years ago, and the continent of North America was never the same. A thriving culture of Paleo-Americans, known as the Clovis people, vanished seemingly overnight. Gone, too, were most of the largest animals: horses, camels, lions, mammoths, mastodons, saber-toothed cats, ground sloths and giant armadillos. Scientists have long blamed climate change for the extinctions, for it was 12,900 years ago that the planet's emergence from the Ice Age came to a halt, reverting to glacial conditions for 1,500 years, an epoch known as the Younger Dryas. In just the last few years, there has arisen a controversial scientific hypothesis to explain this chain of events, and it involves an extraterrestrial calamity: a comet, broken into fragments, turning the sky ablaze, sending a shock wave across the landscape and scorching forests, creatures, people and anything exposed to the heavenly fire. The wide distribution of recently discovered nanodiamonds could be a sign that the comet broke into pieces in space and that the fragments burned up explosively over a broad area of North America.