September & October 2008 Featured Disasters

Friday, October 31, 2008 -

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/30/08 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
6.0 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.2 KYRGYZSTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.5 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

PAKISTAN - More than 250 aftershocks triggered new concerns in Balochistan on Thursday, including a tremor of magnitude 4.5. Four of the tremors were strong, two severe and two moderate. Aftershocks are likely to continue into next week, but will decrease in strength.
The death toll from the earthquake rose to 215, with 15,000 homeless.

CALIFORNIA - A cluster of earthquakes hit a sparsely populated desert area in Southern California Wednesday night near Ocotillo Wells, about 100 kilometres northeast of San Diego. They all occurred within a three-hour period and all were magnitude 3.0 or greater, with the strongest a magnitude-3.5 quake. There are no reports of injuries or significant damage.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MAINE - Tuesday's Tidal Fluctuations Baffle Weather Service - in Boothbay Harbor, some boats were scratched and docks damaged Tuesday afternoon when LOW TIDE BECAME HIGH WITHIN A MATTER OF MINUTES. Locals in the area say it happened about 6 or 7 times throughout the afternoon. They say it surged in within a matter of 5 minutes, then flowed back out just as quickly. The National Weather Service says the cause of the UNUSUAL tide fluctuations along the mid coast of Maine remains a mystery...and may never be known. Significant rapid rises and falls in tide levels were observed around 3 pm in Boothbay Harbor, Southport, and Bristol. Only very minor fluctuations were noted at tide gauges along the coast. There are several possible explanations for the event. Rapid surges can be caused by the underwater movement of land, most often due to an earthquake, or due to the slumping of sediments along a steep canyon or shelf. No earthquakes were reported in the area. Eye-witness reports from several locations indicated that water levels fell and rose from 4 feet to as much as 12 feet along the coast during the event. These rapid changes in tidal levels generated the strong currents that damaged piers and boats in the area. Although these events are RARE along the Maine coast, they have occurred in the past. On January 9, 1926, a similar event was observed in Bass Harbor. During that event, the harbor drained rapidly and then was followed by a 10 ft surge of water, followed by two other smaller waves.

The discovery that the Indian Ocean has been repeatedly rocked by massive tsunamis is reverberating in the Pacific Northwest, which shares a similar record of geologic unrest. "Both places have this history of ... catastrophes," and both are on approximately 600 year time scales. A similar fault lies off the coast of Washington, Oregon and Northern California. The so-called Cascadia Subduction Zone has unleashed monster quakes and tsunamis on average every 500 to 600 years — though the intervals vary widely. The last was 300 years ago. Recent cores drilled from the floor of the Pacific Ocean provide a 10,000-year record of earthquakes and tsunamis on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and suggest the West Coast could be hit with waves as high as 70 to 90 feet. Oregon is revamping its evacuation maps to account for the new worst-case scenarios. A major slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone could send surges crashing onto shore within 30 minutes or less. That's why people in coastal communities need to immediately head to high ground when they feel a major earthquake. Some parts of Washington's coast, like the Ocean Shores and Long Beach peninsulas, offer no high ground and would be extremely difficult to evacuate, particularly if roads were destroyed by the earthquake.

OREGON - On Saturday afternoon, a FREAK SNEAKER WAVE swiped a 6-year-old and his uncle off rocks at Simpson Beach, south of Charleston. Minutes later, the sea spit the boy back out, but he died on his way to the hospital. The uncle remains missing. Witnesses who saw the waves strike said, “It was horrifying. It looked like they were sliding down a waterfall. The water was just so powerful and moving so fast that it pulled them out.” The waters of the Pacific Ocean and Simpson Beach had large waves this past weekend.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

INDIA - Sea surface temperatures along the entire southeast coast churned by erstwhile Tropical Cyclone Rashmi continue to be lower compared with those of the rest of the Bay of Bengal. A remnant circulation from the system was still traced to over Meghalaya on Wednesday. The ‘cool corridor’ along the coast repels approaching systems; on Wednesday, consensus outlook said that nascent cyclonic whirls showing up over extreme east Bay would be forced to swerve in a north-northeast direction. Breeding storms and associated easterlies-to-northeasterlies should normally rev up activity over the Bay. But given the none-too-helpful environment in the immediate neighbourhood, no big development was expected any time soon.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - Floods have killed at least 19 people in central Vietnam, as heavy rains also lashed the capital Hanoi and left many streets under 1m of water.

BRITAIN - FREAK STORM leaves town cut off under enough hail to fill the Millennium Dome twice - the freak storm in the Devon area left a town partially cut off and 100 homes flooded. An estimated 270 million cubic feet of hail fell on a five-mile square area around the town of Ottery St Mary in a six-hour storm which confounded forecasts and overwhelmed local flood defences. Thirty people had to be rescued from houses and cars as floodwaters, up to 5ft deep in places, washed through the town and the nearby village of Tipton St John, after hail stones blocked drains and two cars were washed into the river Otter causing a further build-up. The area at the centre of the storm received three inches of rain - well over half its monthly rainfall - in six hours, 11 times as much as neighbouring towns. Residents described seeing a "river of ice" flowing down the main street with many forced to wade chest deep to safety. By morning the streets were left like a "lunar landscape" with cars buried under "a meringue" of hail and snow, 2ft deep across the town with drifts up to 6ft in places. Residents face a clean-up operation likely to take several months. Although rain had been predicted, the intensity of the storm over such a small area took forecasters by surprise. The Met office said that icy airflows mixing with warmer currents nearer the ground prompted the kind of intense thunder storm usually only encountered at the height of summer. "It is truly an occasion to use the word 'FREAK'."
It was the WORST FLOODING IN DEVON IN 25 YEARS.

MOROCCO - Flooding in Morocco has killed 28 people and caused major damage in various parts of the country. Over the last week, 11 people died in flash flooding in the northeastern port town of Nador and six people died in Taza, central Morocco, after their homes collapsed. Bad weather also destroyed two bridges and 200 mud-brick houses. Weather forecasters are predicting further heavy rain across Morocco on Thursday night.

HAITI - The heavy rain that began Tuesday caused rivers to overflow their banks and has destroyed farmland. Heavy rains in the country's south have triggered flash floods that killed a father and son and destroyed dozens of homes. More flooding was expected Thursday. The latest flooding comes toward the end of what has been a devastating storm season in the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Nearly 800 people have been killed in a series of storms to hit Haiti so far this year.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
CHINA - A severe snowstorm in southwest China's Tibet region has killed seven people and stranded another 1300 in damaged buildings and villages.

Thursday, October 30, 2008 -

"There are many similarities of the current financial crisis to once-in-a-century tsunamis. In 2004...the death toll was highest wherever there was little or no understanding of tsunami precursors...In regions of the Indian Ocean where there had been uncontrolled and unregulated coastal development, there was carnage. In regions where people relied on ancestral knowledge there were hardly any deaths...Experience in Central America and elsewhere suggests that people quickly rebuild in the same area that was devastated, only not the same people who suffered the first time around. Market forces can not be relied upon to regulate human behavior in hazard mitigation any more than they can be trusted to regulate financial greed, or improve our carbon footprints.
...One wonders exactly what our financial wise men, whose companies — even in good times — advertised their expertise in risk management solutions, had been planning for? And as opposed to the mission-impossible of geologists and engineers pondering the history of the earth to understand future extreme events, what triggered the Great Depression is well documented.”
“All this brings to mind how we are preparing for the consequences of global warming. We all know that we can’t go on forever. The question is no longer when but how severe will it be. The U.S. government should take note of Mr. Greenspan’s testimony, and realize that often common sense trumps experience and financial sainthood.” ( graphic of tsunami striking homes)

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/29/08 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
6.2 PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN - Another quake measuring magnitude 6.2 struck southwest Pakistan Wednesday, hours after the initial jolt. So far there have not been any reports about any more injured people, but the aftershocks have made many Pakistanis flee their homes in panic. There were more than a dozen subsequent aftershocks during the day. A major rescue operation to save those thought to be buried under fallen buildings is underway after the series of earthquakes struck and killed at least 170 people. Hundreds more have been injured, an estimated 15,000 are homeless and the death toll could rise further. The worst-hit area appeared to be the district of Ziarat, where a quake-induced landslide buried dozens of houses. The quakes are the latest of Pakistan's woes. The country is six days from defaulting on its debt and has turned to the International Monetary Fund for relief after abortive efforts to solicit funds from its handful of allies.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 was not the first of its size to hit the region, according to new research. In Thailand and Sumatra, there was evidence of sediment laid down by a large tsunami between 600 and 700 years ago, pre-dating written and oral records. The research team also found evidence of a deeper sandy layer, with a corresponding age of about 1,200 years, suggesting a "recurrence time" for large tsunami of around 600 years. There is also evidence of a prehistoric event that inundated the Shetland and Orkney islands off Scotland. The team in Thailand found some suggestion of the 1,200 year-old layer and more substantial evidence for layers corresponding to around 2,000 years ago. Though the earthquakes that drive tsunami don't happen predictably, the results suggest that another tsunami of that scale will not occur in the near future.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BELIZE - Flood ‘08 Continues to Smother Belize - flooding persists in the Belize and Orange Walk districts and it's getting worse in many areas. The depth, scale and scope are staggering. And while the flooding is one thing, losses of livestock and agriculture are another. Some estimates say that as much as 90% of crops in this area have been lost and most livestock owners will lose about 25% of their herds. More than that, experts say that many of the areas like Crooked Tree which are completely inaccessible, will remain that way for months because of the wetland nature of the Belize District. The greatest need right now is for food and basic supplies to those communities which have been completely cut off. (scroll down for additional flood articles at link)

MALAYSIA - people stranded due to floodwaters in remote settlements in the Baram district in northern Sarawak are appealing urgently for food and fuel. Some 15,000 people from 27 remote longhouses and riverine settlements in the vast district are unable to leave their settlements as flood waters had severed all forms of land links. Elsewhere in northern Sarawak, the floods also created havoc in Limbang Division, flooding villages and roads in about a metre of water in Limbang town near the border with Brunei. (photo)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
FLORIDA - A RARE October cold snap BROKE RECORDS in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast Tuesday and overnight. A low of 50, recorded at 4:53 a.m. Wednesday at Palm Beach International Airport, broke the Oct. 29 record low of 51, set in 1944. Tuesday's high of 67 degrees, set at 4:42 p.m., was the lowest for Oct. 28, breaking the old record of 76 set in 1997, and was THE LOWEST HIGH FOR ANY OCTOBER DAY ON RECORD, breaking the old maximum of 68 degrees set in 1957.

IRELAND - Ulster shivered through THE COLDEST OCTOBER TEMPERATURES IN 74 YEARS on Tuesday. Arctic gusts blasted the Province and brought FREAK snowfall on one of the iciest autumn days since records began. "It is UNUSUAL for such low temperatures at this time of year, and the whole of Northern Ireland got a taste of winter. A strong northerly wind brought an Arctic chill straight into Northern Ireland." It had been the coldest October day on record in the Belfast area since 1934, when temperatures reached a high of 3.9 degrees. "This two-day cold spell is a REALLY RARE event."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CANADA - TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FALLING in a handful of Saskatoon communities across the province, as some UNUSUALLY warm weather made an appearance Wednesday. Saskatoon's record high of 17.3 degrees set in 1977 has been broken. Regina has been flirting with a very old record of 20.6 degrees, set in 1887. A new record was set in Estevan with 20.7 degrees. The old record was set just last year at 20.6. A broad ridge of high pressure brought the pleasant conditions.

SPACE WEATHER-
COLORADO - 10/28/08 - a bright fireball shot across the sky around 7:30 Tuesday night over Denver. "About 10 feet above the house in front of me there was this huge burst it looked like a bottle rocket or something shooting across the sky." A fireball is a large meteor that is brighter than Venus. Several cameras in the Colorado AllSky Camera Network captured the image of the fireball crossing the sky Tuesday night. "What most people saw was a really bright light going across the sky, if they were in the Denver area they generally saw it in the south moving east to west." The fireball was estimated at the size of a basketball when it entered earth's atmosphere, and was traveling thousands of miles per hour as it disintegrated over the Western Slope. (photo)
Hundreds Of Sightings From Colorado To New Mexico - Witnesses reported that the bright meteor was visible for several seconds, burning blue, green and yellow as it moved across the sky from the East toward the Southwest. Even though these shooting stars seem to be very close to the ground, in general, most of these "fireballs" burn up quite high in the atmosphere - often 10 to 20 miles above the surface of the Earth. The brilliant light and the colors that are seen are caused by the vaporizing of the material as it hits the Earth's atmosphere at 50,000 to 70,000 mph. The greenish color often reported is actually the glow of ionized oxygen. Few of these objects ever actually reach the ground, even though it often appears that they have hit quite close by. A fireball this bright comes along once every five months or so. Rarely, however, is it actually seen. About 70% of all fireballs streak over uninhabited ocean, while half appear during the day, invisible in sunny skies. (video)

CANADA - Sinkhole is crater - What local hunters in Whitecourt thought for years was a sinkhole is actually the crater left behind by a meteor that fell to earth 1,000 years ago and is now attracting international attention from researchers. The crater is 36 metres wide and six metres deep, which is small as far as most craters go, Herd said. At an estimated 1,000 years old, it is also one of the youngest craters in the world. The second-youngest crater in Canada, located in Quebec, is 1.2 million years old. The meteor, primarily iron, was probably formed very early in the life of the solar system by the same process that formed the earth's core. Researchers have so far found 74 different pieces of the original meteor scattered around the crater, some up to 70 metres away.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 -

History is a voice forever sounding across the centuries the laws of right and wrong.
Opinions alter, manners change, creeds rise and fall,
but the moral law is written on the tablets of eternity.
James A. Forude

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/28/08 -
6.4 PAKISTAN
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 NORTHERN ALASKA

PAKISTAN - At least 135 people were killed in the earthquake measuring 6.4 near the city of Quetta, in south-west Pakistan. Hundreds of people have been injured and some 15,000 made homeless. Many houses collapsed during the quake and some were destroyed in landslides that followed it. The worst-hit area appeared to be Ziarat, about 50km north of Quetta, where hundreds of mostly mud and timber houses have been destroyed in five villages. Many affected areas have still not yet been reached.

PENNSYLVANIA - A woman in Carroll Township has been worried the earth might swallow her up because of the earthquakes and tremors that have been rattling the area for weeks. She's been writing down every earthquake and tremor she's felt or heard since Oct. 2. So far, the number totals at least 60, and the list includes several booms as recently as Monday. "It scares ya, I'll tell ya. I was sitting on the chair, and I could feel it shaking. My china cabinet started vibrating, and pictures fell. It broke a window out in the bedroom." There is a sulphur smell, probably being created by the iron-ore bodies in the area. The region was stretched apart at the time the Atlantic Ocean began to open more than 200 million years ago, and earthquakes are commonly found in areas associated with old rifting. These earthquakes could be caused by old faults in the subsurface, even though they don't show up on geological mapping, or it could be rock breaking at a place where there was never a significant amount of movement in the past. Scientists think these small tremors are going to continue for a while, and then go away as mysteriously as they came.

BRITAIN - Mystery over LA earthquake-style cracks in Wrexham road - Huge cracks, which resemble 'Los Angeles after an earthquake' have started appearing on a Wrexham road. The fissures, up to four inches wide and over 18 inches deep, have started appearing on Queen's Road, between Brymbo and Pentre Broughton. The cause of the problem remains a mystery with local authority officers this week moving in to carry out repair work. There are eight or ten cracks about 20ft long. They are at least 18 inches deep and the road is starting to slip towards the railway track. "At the start of the year, a developer had been preparing the site for building some 18 houses, on it, but it seemed to have come to a stop a few weeks ago – up to last weekend two machines had been left on the site." (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - West Australian farmers are counting costs after a massive storm swept away hundreds of sheep, burst dams and wrecked fences, east of Perth. The storm hit last night, causing damage to roads and bridges in the shire of York. More than 60mm fell causing major damage to fences and dams. "We've never seen anything like it. It's just done so much damage. It was just unbelievable, the amount of rain that fell. The sheets of water were just kilometres wide and fell like streams."

VIETNAM - Heavy rains and floods in Central Viet Nam have caused landslides in many places and threatened people’s lives.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TIBET - The autonomous regional weather observatory claimed Tuesday the snowstorm that started to affect parts of Tibet Sunday was THE WORST OF THE KIND SINCE THE PLATEAU BEGAN TO KEEP WEATHER RECORDS. Temperature in Damxung, an outer county in Lhasa, the regional capital, and also the worst hit area by the 6.6-magnitude quake of Oct. 6, has dropped below zero degrees centigrade, after snow started to fall Sunday. The heavy snow has left two people missing and blocked roads in many places in Tibet. Armed police are struggling to clear roads to restore traffic. An avalanche, plus a landslide, occurred again at 10 a.m. Tuesday on the Sichuan-Tibet road which had 160 km of sections covered with snow as of 9 p.m. Monday. The snowy weather will continue in most parts of Tibet, but it will be on the wane from Thursday on.

BRITAIN - Snow fell in London last night for THE FIRST TIME IN OCTOBER SINCE 1934. Snow and sleet also fell in northern Scotland and south-east England as temperatures plunged to -4C in parts of Britain. "It's HIGHLY UNUSUAL to have snow in October."

NEW JERSEY - The city of New Brunswick was the recipient of measurable snow in the month of October for only the fifth time since records started being kept in 1894. Said the state climatologist - "I'm usually the spoilsport saying 'This weather is not unusual.' But no question, THIS IS UNUSUAL." The storm was labelled an "intense early season nor'easter", with the core of the storm settling on Central Jersey. Several inches of snow fell.

FLORIDA - It was a RARE cold day in South Florida and the Treasure Coast on Tuesday, and it will get even colder before it begins to warm up again. The coldest spot in the area was Okeechobee, where the mercury dipped as low as 46 degrees. The dew points were 30 in Boca Raton and Port St. Lucie, and 28 in West Palm Beach. "It is RARE that we see dew points that low." Normal dew points for South Florida are in the 60s and 70s,

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

"If our demands on the planet continue to increase at the same rate, by the mid-2030s we would need the equivalent of two planets to maintain our lifestyles." "While the media headlines continue to be dominated by the economic turmoil, the world is hurtling further into an ecological credit crunch." Our demands on natural resources overreach what the Earth can sustain by almost a third. The countries with the biggest impact on the planet are the US and China, together accounting for some 40% of the global footprint. The US and United Arab Emirates have the largest ecological footprint per person, while Malawi and Afghanistan have the smallest. "The events in the last few months have served to show us how it's foolish in the extreme to live beyond our means. Devastating though the financial credit crunch has been, it's nothing as compared to the ecological recession that we are facing." The more than $2 trillion lost on stocks and shares is dwarfed by the up to $4.5 trillion worth of resources destroyed forever each year.

Hundreds of swans due to spend winter in the UK are staying put in Siberia because climate change has made the region warm enough to remain, bird experts have said. Bewick's swans are usually expected in wetlands around England in late October but flocks have been arriving later every year. This year it is feared the endangered birds, which are the smallest species of swan to be found in the UK, will fail to turn up at all since it is now warm enough to stay in Siberia. "It is UNUSUAL for this time of year. It has been a lot warmer for a lot longer, not just here but where they have been. They have simply stayed put for longer and there hasn't been the necessity to come back. It is being put down to climate change - a lot of people don't necessarily believe in it, but that's what it is. It is the first year this has occurred, so we will have to see what develops over the coming years." It is feared that if the swans fail to return, the species could lose their 'collective memory' of where wetlands like Slimbridge are - and be unable to find them again if their Eastern holiday destinations suddenly grow colder.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 -

"They always say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself."
Andy Warhol

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/27/08 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.2 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.1 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.6 VANUATU

Southern Iran hit by tremor for fourth time in 24 hours. An earthquake measuring 3.7 on the Richter scale jolted the port city of Kong in Iran's southern province of Hormozgan early Sunday morning. The quake, which was the fourth tremor that hit the port city in the past 24 hours, is part of a series of tremors that have jolted the area in recent months. The old port city of Kong, on the Persian Gulf coast, has a population of 15,000 and is about 930 miles south of Tehran. Two other earthquakes, measuring 5 and 4 respectively, jolted Bandar-e Kong within eight minutes before midnight on Saturday while earlier in the day, it was also hit by another 4.3-magnitude tremor. The 5-magnitude quake injured 9 people. Iran is criss-crossed with fault lines and is regularly hit by earthquakes, experiencing at least one slight tremor every day on average. The worst in recent times hit Bam in southeastern Kerman province in December 2003, killing 31,000 people - about a quarter of its population. The deadliest quake in the country was in June 1990 and measured 7.7 on the Richter scale. About 37,000 people were killed. It devastated 27 towns and about 1,870 villages.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PALESTINE - Severe flooding reported in northern West Bank villages - Flooding left cows dead and farms swamped in the Palestinian villages of Ein Shibli and Beit Hasan in the northern West Bank on Sunday afternoon. This is the first time the community has seen flooding of this magnitude.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

VIRGINIA - So far in 2008, wildfires in Virginia have eaten up 25,153 acres, BREAKING A RECORD SET IN 1963.

TANZANIA - The temperature in Dar es Salaam last week reached 34.7 degrees centigrade, making people experience UNPRECEDENTED HEAT for three days. The temperature was due to cessation of short rains which started last month. October was supposed to be a rainy month in coastal areas which cover Dar es Salaam, but the sky was clear and got maximum radiation from the sun, a factor that pushed up temperature. Tanga recorded 34.4 degrees centigrade during the same period and Zanzibar registered 34.5 degrees centigrade. Coastal areas received rains on the second week of last month followed by a prolonged dry spell. The dry spell was caused by two tropical disturbances which prevailed between September 18 and October 24. One was in the central Indian Ocean, north east of Madagascar. The second unnamed disturbance developed during the same period over the Arabian Sea off the Horn of Africa near the Somali coast and hit Yemen. The two unseasonal disturbances distorted the weather system in Tanzania. The short rains which ought to have started in September and which end in December are now on course in some areas after a short spell.

Climate warming has already disrupted one of the best-protected ecosystems on Earth. Amphibian populations at Yellowstone - the world's oldest national park - are in steep decline, a major study shows. The authors link this to the drying out of wetlands where the animals live and breed. Decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures during the warmest months of the year have significantly altered the landscape. Drought is now more common and more severe than at any time in the past century. "There is a pretty substantial signal of climate change in this region. Snow pack during the winter is decreasing - which other studies have documented - and the regional aquifer is drying up as a result of these large-scale climate changes. These ponds are changing, the environment is changing, the landscape is drying up and the amphibians no longer have a place to breed. It's disturbing." Amphibian populations are in crisis worldwide: pollution, diseases such as chytrid fungus and rana virus, invasive species, UV radiation and habitat destruction all contribute to the problem. (photos)

Climate change pushing species to the brink - 35% of the world's birds, 52% of amphibians and 71% of warm-water reef-building corals are likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change. Albatross, penguin, petrel and shearwater families are all likely to be susceptible to climate change, while heron and egret families, and osprey, kite, hawk and eagle families are among those least likely to be susceptible to climate change. Three salamander families could be particularly susceptible, while 80-100 per cent of Seychelles frogs and Indian Burrowing Frogs, Australian ground frogs, horned toads and glassfrog families were assessed as susceptible.

The thickness of Arctic sea ice "plummeted" last winter, thinning by as much as 49 centimetres (1.6ft) in some regions, satellite data has revealed. The ice thickness had been fairly constant for the previous five winters. The overall volume of Arctic ice is decreasing. "The ice thickness was fairly constant for the five winters before this, but it plummeted in the winter after the 2007 minimum." The western Arctic experienced the greatest impact. "I think this is the first time that we can definitively say that the bulk overall volume of ice has decreased. So this means melting; it doesn't mean that the ice has just been pushed up against the coastline."

Global warming is taking a heavier toll than previously thought on a grueling 120-mile speedskating marathon over frozen rivers and canals linking 11 towns in northern Holland. The race is likely to be held only once every 18 years because of higher winter temperatures. Three years ago, it estimated the likelihood at once every 10 years. Organizers insist on a minimum thickness of 6 inches of ice along virtually the entire route in the northern province of Friesland to ensure it is safe enough to carry thousands of skaters. The rule means that races have always been rare. It has only been held 15 times since the first official event in 1909. "It's an icon for climate change, but of course it is not the most important effect of climate change ... that's more related to flooding and to agriculture."

Global warming is making the sea more salty, according to new research that demonstrates the massive shifts in natural systems triggered by climate change. Warmer temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean have significantly increased evaporation and reduced rainfall across a giant stretch of water from Africa to the Carribean in recent years. The change concentrates salt in the water left behind, and is predicted to make southern Europe and the Mediterranean much drier in future.

Climate change has robbed Africans of traditional knowledge systems to predict the weather. "That asset is no longer reliable and it's one of the few the poor have. You want to be sure the rain comes when sowing your seeds. If it doesn't you miss your harvest. That leads to a chain of reactions. You sell your belongings, your children can't go to school. It is pushing people further back into poverty." Ordinary people in Africa rank among the best experts on climate change. "These are people who've been living in the same place for 20 or 30 years or longer. They observe what's going on with the weather. They don't know about greenhouse gases and might just call it funny weather but they see the rain patterns changing and it's worrying them." "Our main responsibility is to prepare people to be less vulnerable. We say there are a zillion options to adapt to climate change."

RURAL AUSTRALIA has been "almost eviscerated" by the twin perils of drought and economic downturn, the Governor-General has warned, and she fears for the future of country towns. Uncertainty over the drought and climate change, exceptional circumstance, and the broader economy, is plaguing farming families. Irrigators are angry at being cast as environmentally irresponsible, when dramatic changes were being made to water use. Farmers across the basin have made significant, and often expensive, efforts to manage better the dwindling resource. "This is a new era for water management, and that's being embraced by the people on farms. They understand things have to change, that they can't do things the old way any more."

Monday, October 27, 2008 -

Never let your sense of morals get in the way of doing what's right.
Isaac Asimov

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/26/08 -
5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.7 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
10/25/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.0 SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.7 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - Mud volcanoes erupt in Santa Flora - An unexpected early morning volcanic eruption in an oilfield area in Santa Flora sent about 100 villagers scampering out of their homes to safety. Mud continued spewing several feet into the air from two large craters lying in close proximity to a pumping jack in the Los Bajos Field located at Francis Trace. The erupting mud was accompanied by the strong scent of methane gas. Long time residents of the area said this was the first time that the area ever experienced a volcanic eruption and that there were never any signs of activity to cause concern. Shocked villagers said they were awakened by a loud rumble yesterday morning and later discovered that a flat piece of grassy land on which they had walked and played the day before had been transformed into two mud volcanoes. There were reports of similar activity at smaller type craters in the neighbouring Wadell Village. “There are natural fissures that keep erupting with oil, gas and mud.” On July 26 and 31, 2007, an underwater mud volcano off Point Radix, Mayaro burst to life, causing the waters around the activity to change colour while tiny bubbles of escaping gas were seen.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND - Big waves damaged a costal road in Surat Thani Saturday morning. The waves battered the Ban Pod - Don Sak road and damaged it for over 1 kilometre, making it impassable. Officials warned people living on the coastal lines of the province's Don Sak district to brace themselves for possible more big waves as the sea was rising and rough.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone RASHMI was 98 nmi WNW of Chittagong, Bangledesh.

BANGLADESH - At least two people were killed and dozens injured as tropical storm Rashmi with winds of up to 80 kph lashed southern Bangladesh early today. Thousands of homes were damaged and the storm brought down electrical and telephone poles and uprooted trees. Large areas of acres of crops were also destroyed. Offshore islands and coastal areas were swept by a tidal surge of up to two meters above normal. Thousands of people had been evacuated to shelters. "It has turned into a land depression and started weakening gradually."

YEMEN - A tropical storm hit southeast Yemen on Thursday and smashed into remote Hadramut province. Damage has been extensive because most homes in the area are made of mud brick. The death toll has now topped 70. Another six people were struck by lightning during the storms that brought torrential rain. Many other people are still missing and thousands are without shelter. At least 1700 homes were destroyed or badly damaged as the waters rose while roads and the electricity network were seriously affected. People who are still cut off are lacking food and drinking water.

JAPAN - There is an increased possibility that the number of typhoons that hit mainland Japan will be zero for the first time in eight years. The latest a typhoon has hit the mainland in Japan is on Nov. 30, in 1990. No typhoons have struck Japan's mainland this season and only two typhoons have come close. Typhoons No. 13 and 15, which occurred in September, changed their paths eastward after hitting Taiwan due to strong westerlies. Although the typhoons approached Japan, they didn't come ashore on the mainland and blew out into the Pacific Ocean. "There were not so many warm, rising air currents over the eastern Philippine Sea this summer. Compared to other years, the Pacific high pressure system moved west-southwest, blocking typhoons from moving north toward Japan." If no typhoons hit the mainland before the end of the year, it will be only the fourth year that no typhoons have hit the mainland since the JMA started to keep statistics in 1951.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH CAROLINA - West Ashley residents were driven from their homes Saturday by flood damage from RECORD-SETTING RAIN.
Several daily RAINFALL RECORDS WERE SHATTERED in South Carolina and Georgia. Charleston was soaked by 6.57 inches of rain.

MOROCCO - Seventeen people were killed in northeastern Morocco overnight Thursday after torrential rains caused heavy flooding. Heavy rain and storms have caused SOME OF THE WORST FLOODING THE MIDDLE EAST HAS SEEN IN YEARS. Earlier this month some 30 people were killed by heavy downpours in the border area between Morocco and Algeria, where water levels in some cities reached 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) above normal level in what authorities called the worst rain in 20 years.

INDIA - Two months after the Bihar-flood in India, 2.4 million people are still trying to survive on small islands in the middle of the river, or in crowded camps without clean water, proper food or safe shelter, and stripped of all personal belongings. "It still looks like the flood catastrophe happened yesterday". The flood waters have devastated crops, decimated livestock, damaged or swept away houses and disrupted critical facilities. Rescue boats have their limitations in reaching flood hit villages. Heavy rainfall has been exacerbating the situation and now the winter is approaching with the cold weather posing a further challenge for displaced persons. Food prices have tripled.

Friday, October 24, 2008 -

Do not be too moral. You may cheat yourself out of much life.
Aim above morality. Be not simply good; be good for something.
Henry David Thoreau

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/23/08 -
6.1 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 17E was 225 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

The third tropical cyclone of the season in the northern Indian Ocean brought RARE rains to the desert regions of Yemen and Oman after the storm hooked around the Horn of Africa and entered the Gulf of Aden. Tropical Storm Three formed in the Indian Ocean southeast of the island of Socotra and headed northwest over the island. It skirted the Horn of Africa and headed west. The storm only briefly reached “Tropical Storm” status before it weakened to a tropical depression. The storm was bringing scattered downpours over areas that are accustomed to going a year or more without significant rainfall. Local flash flooding was likely along the coast of Yemen, Oman, and northeastern Somalia. (satellite photo)

Haiti storm damage 'eye-popping' - Haiti is at a "tipping point" after being ravaged in recent weeks by a series of tropical storms. Haiti was hit by two tropical storms in August and September and two hurricanes that left some 800 people dead. The storms caused nearly $1bn (£618m) of damage. "That's a lot for a country of eight million people and there's been a terrible loss of lives. The devastation is widespread and it makes your eyes pop. I sense that Haiti is at a tipping point. It could go either way."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
SOUTH CAROLINA - Lake Hartwell, between South Carolina and Georgia, which is part of the Savannah River Basin, has HIT AN ALL-TIME LOW. “And we predict it will only get lower. You can expect every day to be a new all-time low due to the continuing drought.” Hartwell is now 642 feet above mean sea level, 18 feet below full pool. It has not been that low since 1981. “We’re hitting the driest part of the year right now. Until normal rain returns, which usually happens closer to Christmas and New Year’s and into the spring, we’ll see this drop continue. Once we get to that time of year, we should see a little relief.”

TEXAS - A cold front that lashed the Houston area Wednesday night brought RECORD RAINFALL and lower temperatures. It broke an 88-YEAR-OLD RECORD FOR RAINFALL for Oct. 22, with 3.7 inches. The old record of 2.4 inches was set in 1920.

ISRAEL - The University of Haifa campus was overwhelmed by a RECORD RAIN of 88 millimeters within one hour on Thurday - so much that the Israel Meteorology Service thought rain meters there had gone on the blink. The water caused flooding in some university facilities. It took hours for campus staffers to deal with the excess water. The downpour was so extreme that nobody believed it. "In the nearby Denya quarter, only 30 mm. fell; in Beit Oren 7 and Haifa Port 0.1. If we hadn't rain meters on campus, nobody would have believed us."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - Cyclone bringing snow, storm to Russia’s Far East - A sweeping cyclone will bring hurricanes, sleet and a sharp cold spell to vast stretches of the Far East in the next 2-3 days. Stormy winds up to 22 meters per second, daytime air temperatures falling to zero and nighttime temperatures – to five degrees below zero, sleet and rains are expected in the Amur and Jewish autonomous regions, the Khabarovsk territory, in northern and central districts of the Primorsky territory and on Sakhalin. The Far Eastern regional emergencies center declared a storm warning in the Northwest Pacific and the Bering Sea over possible 8-meter-high waves. The top officials of the ports and the shipping companies were informed about a hazard of wreckages, damages to freight and fishing vessels, emergency situations over foiled weather. “Breakdowns of communication lines and power supply lines, some obstacles in the work of road services, utilities, vehicles, ferry lines and airports are probable on these territories.” A hazard of wreckages in the offshore area of the Tatar Strait, in the northeastern part of the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and the western part of the Sea of Okhotsk will get stronger as of October 24.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne's spring drought set to send RAINFALL RECORDS TO A NEW LOW. Melbourne is closing in on a number of unwelcome records, as the severe lack of spring rain continues to worry scientists and water officials. The city could yet achieve the lowest rainfall for the first two months of spring, and in an extreme case, could still record its lowest yearly rainfall result. The 11.6 millimetres recorded at the cental Melbourne station during October was "just woeful" compared to the monthly average of 67 millimetres. "October used to be the wettest month of the year, but also probably the most reliable, so you had this double benefit." After last month was crowned Melbourne's driest-ever September, the first eight weeks of spring had yielded a "shocking" 23.8 millimetres. The lowest result for the first two months of spring was 35.2 millimetres in 1914, while the average for the two months combined is 124 millimetres.

Thursday, October 23, 2008 -

If you would be a real seeker after truth,
it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt,
as far as possible, all things.
Rene Descartes

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/22/08 -
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.4 TONGA
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 03B was 1134 nmi WSW of Karachi, Pakistan.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MALAYSIA - A massive landslide in Paya Terubong narrowly missed an apartment building but destroyed at least eight cars.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ALASKA - A RARE, early season storm from the Gulf of Alaska dumped more than 3 inches of snow at Fairbanks International Airport as of 4 p.m. Wednesday, and the National Weather Service was expecting another 1 to 2 inches to fall before the night was over. The snow is a result of a low pressure system that moved up the Southeast coast along the Alaska-Canada border. “We’re kind of getting the backdoor effect from Canada." The eastern Interior received the most snow. Five inches were reported in Delta and Central and 4 1/2 inches in both North Pole and Two Rivers. “We get these kinds of storms from the east but not so much at this time of year." As of 4 p.m., the storm had pushed Fairbanks’ seasonal snowfall total to 11 inches, about an inch more than normal.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Perth is in its LONGEST OCTOBER HEATWAVE IN 111 YEARS OF RECORDS, with four consecutive days of 30 degrees or more. And residents are waking up to the prospect of having to put up with another 30-degree day today. The previous longest October streak was three consecutive days, which occurred four times, most recently in 1978. Normally in October, Perth averages no more than two days of 30 degrees or hotter. So far this month there have been five days, which is equal to the record set in 1969. North-easterly winds since last weekend are keeping the temperature as much as five degrees above average, day and night.

Southern California is experiencing strong Santa Ana winds a week after similar conditions spurred several major wildfires. 100 homes have been evacuated near Los Angeles.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008 -

It's never wise to underestimate the appeal of crazy.

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/21/08 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.1 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has warned East Java residents to protect themselves against tidal waves in the coming few days. A heat wave, with temperatures reaching between 36 and 37 degrees Celsius, will be caused by the precise position of the sun on the equator above Java between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24. "Fishermen should also be on higher alert for tidal waves, especially in the Java and Indian seas." [further info on this heat wave article continues in the EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE section below]

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 03B was 1012 nmi SW of Karachi, Pakistan.
Cyclone ASMA was 488 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Tropical storm Three struck an island off the coast of Yemen at about 15:00 GMT on 21 October with winds of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher. The storm had initially been expected to hit Somalia, but travelled north instead of west. The storm is expected to hit the mainland of Yemen tomorrow morning, Oct. 23. (path map)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
HONDURAS - The President of Honduras has declared a national state of emergency following landslides and flooding caused by heavy rain. At least 10 people have been killed and thousands forced from their homes. Roads and bridges have been damaged and crops destroyed across the country. The President has appealed to neighbouring countries for help following a week of downpours. Officials say more than 120,000 people have been affected. More rain is expected and officials fear the situation could get worse. US soldiers based in Honduras have been mobilised, some of them rescuing people who had been forced onto their roofs.

BELIZE is experiencing its second catastrophic and RECORD-BREAKING FLOOD EVENT in just four months, and even though it was not as deadly as Tropical Storm Arthur, Tropical Depression #16 has affected three towns and several villages along the Mopan and Macal Rivers in Cayo, devastating agricultural fields, submerging several miles of highway, forcing mass evacuations, and severing the most populous part of Cayo from the rest of Belize. No one expected that the flooding would have been so massive, exacerbated not by rains that fell over Belize, but by flood waters that flowed down from the mountainous terrain of eastern Guatemala, sparking two major flood waves in the Belize River watershed two days apart, on Friday and Sunday. Waters rose the highest on record for Benque Viejo del Carmen. Village elders said they saw a similar flood event about 45 to 50 years ago. Water levels in San Ignacio had been fluctuating since last Monday, but by Friday, instead of water levels going back down, they continued to mount to astonishing levels. Much of Belize City was under water on Saturday night going into Sunday morning, due to torrential rains. The first flood wave has already made its way down into the Belize District, and the second flood water was due to find its way to coastal Belize by mid-day today. Belize is not out of the woods yet, because sitting just offshore is a wide area of tropical disturbance, which is expected to dump further rains over the country over the next two days.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
AUSTRALIA - RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES have brought snow to the Blue Mountains and southern tablelands in NSW and wet and windy weather to the state's coast. Temperatures dipped to three degrees celsius near Blackheath, west of Sydney, early this morning but wind gusts brought the mercury down further to minus two degrees and pockets of snow fell in Leura and west of Katoomba at Oberon. An unseasonal cold front from the southeast extends to just beyond the ranges and is moving north. Thunderstorms and wind gusts of up to 70km/h have brought rain to the eastern part of the state and ABNORMALLY COLD conditions to most of NSW. Average temperatures in the Blue Mountains for October range from seven to 18 degrees. In Sydney today, the temperature is forecast to be 15 degrees, an October temperature which has ONLY BEEN SEEN TWICE IN THE PAST 14 YEARS. Average maximum temperatures for Sydney in October are around 22 degrees.

U.S. - an interesting weather event will occur Sunday as a strong jet dives across the Great Lakes and brings a MASSIVE COLD WAVE to the Great Lakes and Northeast. The cold front associated with that jet could have thunderstorms with rain and even a change to snow. 1-3 inches of snow could fall across parts of Michigan, eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York as the air dynamically cools down to freezing, changing rain showers over to snow showers. The aspect of this front will be the high winds associated with the passage. There could be wind gusts up to 70 mph from Minnesota all the way to New York and Pennsylvania. It is also possible to have winds gust over 50 mph all the way into the I-95 corridor Sunday night as the front plows on through.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

INDONESIA - The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has warned East Java residents to protect themselves against dehydration, tidal waves and fires, with temperatures forecast to reach 37 degrees Celsius in the coming few days. The heat wave, with temperatures reaching between 36 and 37 degrees Celsius, will be caused by the precise position of the sun on the equator above Java between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24. "This is actually an annual phenomenon. The heat wave will occur from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m., and the temperature will decrease gradually depending on the sun's position in the west until sunset but it will still remain high." "Fishermen should also be on higher alert for tidal waves, especially in the Java and Indian seas. Also the risk of flammable materials such as bushes, forests and chemical factories burning is higher because of the strong wind." On Tuesday afternoon, it was cloudy and rained for minutes only. In the past two months, there has been only one heavy downpour in the city, with many residents now choosing to sleep outside for relief from the heat. 277 city firefighters have been stationed in eight strategic positions in the city. They are equipped with three ladder firetrucks, 20 tankers and five pump trucks in anticipation of possible fires during the drought, which is expected to last until next month. "Ideally, a city with a population of 2.8 million would have at least 30 tankers of various types and functions."

Tuesday, October 21, 2008 -

The only way not to think about money is to have a great deal of it.
Edith Wharton

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/20/08 -
5.9 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.2 SCOTIA SEA

CALIFORNIA - Some have dubbed the Hayward "the most dangerous urban fault in America". The Hayward Fault is one of a network of cracks in the Earth's surface running through the San Francisco Bay Area. Records show that the past five large earthquakes on this fault have occurred on average about 140 years apart, and the last was 140 years ago today. At 0755 on the morning of 21 October, 1868, the Hayward broke with a Magnitude 6.8 quake. The ground lurched some two metres and the cities of Oakland to the north and San Francisco to the west were shattered. The first Hayward City Hall in California has long been off-limits to occupants because its foundations sit right atop the earthquake fault and it's gradually splitting in two. "There are huge cracks, several centimetres broad and many metres long - basically showing the evidence that this building is being torn in half." "It's the probability that the Hayward will generate a large earthquake in the next 30 years combined with the fact that it runs right through an urban area. These two facts taken together make it the most dangerous right now." The concern has been heightened in recent years by research which indicates that the Hayward and the parallel Calaveras Fault might actually be connected at depth, and, as such, could produce, in effect, a single, even more powerful event. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 03B was 1120 nmi SW of Karachi, Pakistan.
Cyclone ASMA was 488 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.

The season's first tropical cyclone over the southern Indian Ocean together with a tropical depression over the Arabian Sea near Somalia - Asma is a tropical cyclone now spinning north-northeast of the Mascarene Islands. An estimate from the Tropical Cyclone Centre of La Reunion has 40-knot/75-kmh highest sustained winds. The JTWC forecast is for strengthening, while the Cyclone Centre weakens Asma over time. Both do agree on a mostly westward towards the northern tip of Madagascar. Water temperature westward to northern Madagascar would be marginal for sustaining a strong tropical cyclone. Shifting north of the Equator, the focus becomes a tropical depression over the southwestern Arabian Sea off the Horn of Africa. This depression seems (as of 1800 UTC) be centered south of Socotra and east of northern Somalia with movement towards the west or west-northwest. This tropical cyclone could become a tropical cyclone (within 12 to 24 hours) before proximity to land renders this outcome increasingly unlikely. As for weather impact, torrential rain will happen, at least locally, over Socotra and northeastern Somalia. Tuesday through Thursday, tropical moisture will flow northwest into southern Arabia, where it will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over Yemen, Oman and southeastern Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere in the hemisphere, a blowup of convective rain can be seen over the southeastern Arabian Sea near the state of Kerala, India. Some numerical forecasts scenarios show this weather system strengthening towards the north and west. Another area of interest lies with widespread, loosely organized convective rains straddling the Equator westward from Sumatra, Indonesia. Some numerical forecast scenarios show slow consolidation of a low drifting northwestward north of the Equator later in the week. Tropical Storm Bavi took shape late last week southeast of Japan. Bavi has veered northeastwards and is becoming an extra tropical storm. (satellite photo)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

The methane time bomb - Preliminary findings suggest that massive deposits of sub-sea methane are bubbling to the surface as the Arctic region becomes warmer and its ice retreats. This is the first evidence that millions of tons of a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide is being released into the atmosphere from beneath the Arctic seabed. Scientists aboard a research ship that has sailed the entire length of Russia's northern coast have discovered intense concentrations of methane – sometimes at up to 100 times background levels – over several areas covering thousands of square miles of the Siberian continental shelf. In the past few days, the researchers have seen areas of sea foaming with gas bubbling up through "methane chimneys" rising from the sea floor. They believe that the sub-sea layer of permafrost, which has acted like a "lid" to prevent the gas from escaping, has melted away to allow methane to rise from underground deposits formed before the last ice age. They have warned that this is likely to be linked with the rapid warming that the region has experienced in recent years. Underground stores of methane are important because scientists believe their sudden release has in the past been responsible for rapid increases in global temperatures, dramatic changes to the climate, and even the mass extinction of species.

ISRAEL - the country is experiencing THE WORST DROUGHT IN ITS 60-YEAR HISTORY. Without a deluge, water levels at the Sea of Galilee, Israel's largest freshwater source, may fall below a marker known as the lower black line, by December. At that point, pumping from the lake, which supplies more than a third of Israel's needs, will stop. "I can't remember a worse year." Galilee had its BIGGEST EVER ANNUAL DROP, falling two meters in the year ended Sept. 30. Reserves at mountain and coastal aquifers, the other major sources, also have fallen below critical levels. "If we get the annual average of rain, it will not be enough to make up for the past few years." Northern Israel has suffered below-average rainfall for the past four years. All the freshwater reservoirs in the north are empty with water now being sourced from drilling of the coastal and mountain aquifers.

Monday, October 20, 2008 -

I have enough money to last me the rest of my life, unless I buy something.
Jackie Mason

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/19/08 -
5.3 TONGA
5.8 TONGA
7.0 TONGA

TONGA - A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.o rocked a remote area of the South Pacific Ocean east of the island nation of Tonga Sunday. Buildings in the capital, Nuku'alofa, shook for about two minutes during the quake. There were no immediate reports of damage or injury.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
U.S. - A new study says many wetlands on the Gulf Coast will be submerged as seas rise and the land sinks. There will be "dramatic consequences" by the end of this century. The Gulf Coast is beginning to resemble conditions last seen in the Holocene period, 9,600 to 7,000 years ago. That period was marked by rapid flooding events. The rate of sea level rise along the Gulf Coast has doubled in the past century.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ASMA was 525 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical storm BAVI was 641 nmi ESE of Tokyo, Japan.

HAITI - 4 storms in 30 days bring floods and landslides - Fay, Hanna, Gustav and Ike cut a trail of death and destruction through this already impoverished nation, leaving hundreds dead, thousands homeless and a coastal town in the northwestern corner buried in mud-caked floodwaters. Only 1.5 percent of Haiti is still forested, compared to 60 percent in 1923. Approximately 30 million trees are cut down annually in Haiti. With the brick-red topsoil quickly eroding and few trees to hold what's left, a heavy downpour can easily trigger an avalanche, sending the hills crashing down, washing away homes and uprooting crops. "The whole country is facing an ecological disaster," said Haiti's new prime minister. "We cannot keep going on like this. We are going to disappear one day. There will not be 400, 500 or 1,000 deaths. There are going to be a million deaths."

AUSTRALIA - The weather bureau says Queenslanders should begin preparations for this year's cyclone season. The water temperature in northern Australia is warmer than usual indicating a La Nina weather system is forming. That means there is an increased likelihood of tropical cyclones and decent rainfall.
Western Australia is at a higher than normal risk of pre-Christmas tropical cyclones with the weather bureau predicting up to seven in the coming season. Five to seven cyclones are expected in northwest waters this season compared to four last year and an average of five. At least one cyclone could have a severe impact on coastal communities The Southern Oscillation Index is used to predict the likelihood of early cyclones. "The SOI is currently positive which indicates we are likely to have an early start to the season and above average in terms of numbers." Cyclone season starts on November 1 and runs until April.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUSTRALIA - Perth was having its WARMEST TW0-DAY OCTOBER SPELL IN 47 YEARS. The WA capital reached 33.5 degrees Sunday and 34.6 degrees today. In the Peel region, Dwellingup, for the first October in 39 years, soared past 30 degrees for two days running. In Cockburn, the sprawling city to Perth's south, Jandakot hit 35.3 today - its hottest October day in 12 years. To Perth's north, Pearce broke an October record, exceeding 34 degrees two days in a row. The unseasonal warmth extended to the south-west capes, where Cape Leeuwin had its warmest October day in 36 years, reaching 30.

The first 'tipping point' may have already been reached in the Arctic, where sea ice is disappearing up to 30 years ahead of predictions and may be gone completely within five years - something that HASN'T OCCURRED FOR A MILLION YEARS. It could result in rapid and abrupt climate change rather than the gradual changes forecast by the IPCC. Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are losing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere faster than expected. Rising temperatures have already led to a major reduction in food crops resulting in losses of 40m tonnes of grain per year. Marine ecosystems in the North and Baltic Sea are being exposed to THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MEASURED SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. "It is clear that climate change is already having a greater impact than most scientists had anticipated, so it's vital that international mitigation and adaptation responses become swifter and more ambitious."

Sunday, October 19, 2008 -

If all the rich people in the world divided up their money among themselves
there wouldn't be enough to go around.
Christina Stead

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/18/08 -
5.1 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
10/17/08 -
No quakes 5.0 or higher.

NIGERIA - Residents of Ugwueme, Umuhu, Ugulesi Awgu and Ezinese Mgbidi communities in Awgu Local Government Area, Enugu State could not believe their eyes when they visited their farmland in the morning of October 7. Expansive farmlands measuring more than 20 square kilometres had been destroyed by a tremor. There were huge cracks and depressions on the land as if a straying ballistic missile had exploded there. Some trees sank in the depression while others were completely uprooted. Materials suspected to have been thrown up from the earth crust during the tremor littered the entire area. Expectedly, the affected communities were in an uproar over the incident which had literally taken away the means of livelihood of the majority of the people who are predominantly farmers. Although the farming season has passed, the devastation wrought by mother nature left the residents bewildered. While some described it as an earthquake, others argued it was a tremor and a forewarning about a serious natural disaster that may yet happen. The traditional Prime Minister of Awgu, who visited the scene on the second day of the incident, said he felt a massive shaking and reverberations under his feet. He said he heard a noise that sounded like the roaring of a bulldozer. A scientific team visited the farmland on Tuesday. They described the incident as a landslide which occurred on account of massive rainfall which “percolated into the land to an impermeable layer and caused land cracks”. “This incident is a major one NEVER WITNESSED IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD. The cracks happened to be part of a certain ridge of over 500 km...The scar on this ridge must be avoided either for building or for farming." The experts found that the integrity of the land is poor because the sedimentary rock underneath can cave in easily and dissolve and the texture can no longer hold water. They took a sample of the soil for further investigation. The tremor can not be controlled and could indeed happen again. The affected land has been rendered useless for any productive activities. A farmer, who was affected by the devastation said he could no longer recognise his farm when he got there, adding that the whole area looked like the scene of a major battle between two great elemental forces. The affected families will need to purchase new farmlands and seedlings as their land has been lost forever. The communities also lost their sources of water during the disaster. The Chairman of the House Committee on Petroleum Resources and Environmental Management described the incident as an UNUSUAL and bizarre disaster. Large portions of land were compressed into crooked ridges and valleys.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 01S was 491 nmi WSW of Diego Garcia.
Tropical storm BAVI was 695 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.
Tropical storm OMAR was 902 nmi SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Omar seriously damaged crops in Antigua, where the Prime Minister warned of food shortages and called the storm "a natural disaster of serious proportions." Authorities in the Carribean were trying to contain oil spills after more than 40 boats sank or washed ashore during Hurricane Omar. About half the vessels lost their anchors, including houseboats, catamarans and pricy yachts and sailboats owned by tourists. The hurricane caught many local boaters off-guard because they did not take the storm seriously. Omar, which has weakened into a tropical storm, passed by the US Virgin Islands where the government has spent more than US$1 million in cleanup costs. About half of St Croix's 55,000 people remained with power yesterday.

BARBADOS - a weak tropical wave passed across the island chain unnoticed. The wave led to some enhancement of the cloud mass and generated a line of thunderstorm activity to the south-west of the island. The down-draft created an increase in wind speed. Some people living in Bartletts Tenantry, Sargeant's Village, got the scare of their lives when the "tornado-like" winds ripped through the Christ Church district on Wednesday evening, tearing off rooftops and in one case lifting a man into the air. Others spoke about seeing the UNUSUAL wind tossing around some of the cans along the highway.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
HONDURAS - Flooding from heavy rains killed at least three people and four others were reported missing as civil defence officials issued a red alert along the Ulua River basin stretching across northern Honduras. Two people were reported missing in Olancho and two others in the southern department of Choluteca bordering Nicaragua. Flooding also hit southern Nicaragua, where one person was killed. The rains caused landslides in the region and sent water flooding into thousands of homes.
COSTA RICA - WORST STORM IN 108 YEARS; Landslide Shuts Down Interamericana Norte - As a result of the constant downpours for the last four days, a massive landslide near the Chomes, Puntarenas, exit on the Interamericana Norte highway has caused more problems for the weather embattled Guanacaste. Mud and rocks came falling down on from the side of the road Thursday afternoon and reports of vehicles trapped under the debris could not be verified as rescue workers dig through the rubble. The weeklong rains has caused many rivers in to overflow their banks, causing flooding and evacuation and death. As of last count, 274 communities have been affected around the country as the tropical storm at the Honduras-Nicaragua border battered Costa Rica, primarily in the Pacific coastal areas, seven deaths reported and 77,000 directly and indirectly affected. Earlier this week the Interamericana Sur, that connects Cartago to Peréz Zeledón was also affected, as mudslide washed away some 50 metres of road surface. According to the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional - national weather service - it hasn't rained this much in San José since 1944 and is the highest accumulation of rain in the capital between January and September since 1900. An analysis of rainfall between January and October shows that 2,100 millimeters (82.7 inches) have fallen in San José city this year, compared to a historical average of 1,800 millimeters (70.8 inches). In the last four days, Guanacaste and the Pacific Coast have witnessed an amount of rain equal to an entire October’s historical average. The uncommon rainfall can be mostly attributed to temporales, the tropical storms that have rocked the region. The water situation has reached critical levels in many areas, where life has been put on hold to deal with damages from flooding. A huge landslide currently blocks the entrance to Chomes, Puntarenas, and vehicles are backed up with nowhere to go, with no connection between Guanacaste and the Central Valley. Authorities fear that several drivers and their passengers are actually trapped under a rockslide 328 feet long and 13 feet high. Rescuers have not yet been able to reach the victims. More stormy weather lurks on the horizon, bringing addition rain, hail and thunder storm. On the bright side, November and the beginning of the dry season are just around the corner.

VIETNAM - At least seven people have died in floods triggered by heavy rains in central Vietnam. Thousands of houses have been submerged in the provinces of Thua Thien Hue, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai. A baby and two children are among the dead. More floods and landslides are expected and residents in the mountainous areas being urged to leave their homes. Last month, floods triggered by Typhoon Hagupit killed at least 25 people in northern Vietnam.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AFGHANISTAN is in the grip of one of the worst droughts many can remember. "In all my life, I have never seen anything as bad as this." A harsh winter is in store for the people of Afghanistan. "We should have harvested over a ton of wheat, but we've only managed to get a tenth of that this year." Since nine out of every 10 Afghans rely on farming for survival, the drought means a serious food crisis is looming for millions. In Saighan Valley, high in the central highlands, all around it is like a moonscape, bare, brown fields, dry gullies, and jagged mountains stripped of vegetation. Up here Afghans rely on the winter snows to recharge the ground water. But for six of the past seven years there has not been enough snow. This year was the worst of all. Some villages do not even have drinking water.

SPACE WEATHER-
The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, Nasa scientists have warned. New data has revealed that the heliosphere, the protective shield of energy that surrounds our solar system, has weakened by 25% over the past decade and is now at it lowest level since the space race began 50 years ago. Scientists are baffled at what could be causing the barrier to shrink in this way and are to launch mission to study the heliosphere. The interstellar medium, which is part of the galaxy as a whole, is actually quite a harsh environment. There is a very high energy galactic radiation that is dangerous to living things. Around 90 per cent of the galactic cosmic radiation is deflected by our heliosphere, so the boundary protects us from this harsh galactic environment." Without the heliosphere the harmful intergalactic cosmic radiation would make life on Earth almost impossible by destroying DNA and making the climate uninhabitable. If the heliosphere continues to weaken, scientists fear that the amount of cosmic radiation reaching the inner parts of our solar system, including Earth, will increase. This could result in growing levels of disruption to electrical equipment, damage satellites and potentially even harm life on Earth. But it is still unclear exactly what would happen if the heliosphere continued to weaken or what even what the timescale for changes in the heliosphere are. “There is no imminent danger, but it is hard to know what the future holds. Certainly if the solar wind pressure was to continue to go down and the heliosphere were to almost evaporate then we would be in this sea of galactic cosmic rays. That could have some large effects. It is likely that there are natural variations in solar wind pressure and over time it will either stabilise or start going back up.”

MYSTERY BOOM - METEORITE HIT? -
AUSTRALIA - 10/17/08 - Police believe a meteorite crashed near Alice Springs on Friday night. Residents at the remote Wallare Rock Hole Community report hearing a loud bang and feeling the ground shake at around 7:00pm local time. Alice Springs Police have ruled out an aviation accident, saying authorities have accounted for all aircraft. Officers went to the community to investigate but did not find anything. Police will now talk to the US Seismic Activity Centre to see if it can provide any clues as to the meteorite's location. A resident described seeing a spectacular light. "[It] started off just a light trail as it passed across the sky and flared into a super brilliant gold and white light, and then looked like it was heading towards the Alice Springs area."
What is believed to be a meteorite crashed near Wallace Rockhole near Hermannsburg, and was seen from as far away as Darwin. Alice Springs Police received a report about 7pm of something that looked like a flare, but could not find anything. One Darwin stargazer described it as like nothing he had seen before. "I was walking to my car looking south and saw what I thought was a falling star. But it was far too bright - I've never seen anything so bright." He said the bright yellow light with a smoky trail appeared suddenly in the sky. "At first I thought, 'Oh my god, UFO'. I was quite fascinated by it." He said he watched it for about 10 seconds from when it appeared until it disappeared into the horizon. "I thought it was going to hit something." The event had been reported to relevant authorities, but it had not registered on any scanners. Meteorite landings are not uncommon, and without knowing where it had landed it could not be assessed properly. The Territory's most famous meteorite crater is Gosse Bluff, the 6km-wide central core of a comet whose impact crater is 25km wide. It is 160km from Alice Springs.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
Lotte USA, Inc., Battle Creek, Michigan has initiated a recall of all Koalas' March Creme Cookies because they were produced in China and they may be contaminated with melamine.

Friday, October 17, 2008 -

I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart.
e e cummings

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/16/08 -
6.7 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.0 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
10/15/08 -
5.4 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -
RUSSIA - A volcanic eruption on the Kamchatka Peninsula sent clouds of smoke and ash into the air above Russia's Far East on Thursday, with scientists warning of dangers to local inhabitants and passing airplanes. The Klyuchevskoy volcano is spewing out rocks, ash and gases. "The luminescence in the volcano's crater is becoming more intensive, which testifies to the appearance of new lava." The eruption will probably last from two or three weeks to six months. Continuous flows of lava running down Klyuchevskoy's slopes could trigger mudslides as the molten rock melts the snow and ice, endangering people living in nearby villages. The volcano eruption is also a threat to aircraft flying overhead as volcanic ash could cause planes considerable damage. The last powerful eruption of the Klyuchevskoy volcano took place in 2005.

COLUMBIA - Authorities in the southern Colombian department of Nariño are on high alert after the Galeras volcano became active and blew smoke one and a half mile up into the sky. The volcano has erupted a dozen times since 1989. The last time was in January when surrounding towns and villages had to be evacuated.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 01S was 1095 nmi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Tropical storm OMAR was 505 nmi NE of St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands.

Omar - Small islands in the north-east Caribbean remain on alert but the worst of Hurricane Omar may now be over for them. The category-three storm was rapidly moving away from the northern Leeward Islands out to sea. A hurricane warning has now been discontinued for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where one person has died. Hurricane warnings remain in place for islands of St Martin, Saba, St Eustatius, St Barthelemy and Anguilla as well as St Kitts and Nevis. Omar could still dump as much as 20 inches (51cm) of rain and bring wave surges of up to six feet (1.8m) across the northern Leeward Islands. Earlier, heavy rains and winds battered the US Virgin Island of St Croix, sinking boats in the harbour, felling trees and forcing workers to shut down a major oil refinery. Earlier, Omar dumped rain on northern Venezuela and nearby islands. (photo / map)
In a bizarre move that hadn't been seen since Hurricane Lenny in 1999, Tropical depresion 15 (Omar) was poised to backtrack toward the Virgin Islands Tuesday, despite already having passed by over the weekend. The system moved past the territory Sunday as a tropical wave, but the system was expected to make a U-turn and head north Tuesday night

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
COSTA RICA - Several vehicles were believed to have been trapped yesterday under a massive landslide on Costa Rica's Inter-American Highway. Mud and rocks came falling down from the side of the road at 1:30 p.m. At least three vehicles were reported trapped, but the number could not be verified yet as workers raced to dig through the wet rubble. Weeklong rains, overflowing rivers and flooding have killed at least three people – two in the central Pacific region and one near the north-central region of Monteverde – and forced some 2,100 residents into 37 shelters across Costa Rica. About 30 cantons from north to south remained on red alert.

KENYA - Three people are feared dead after floods swept across Mandera Town on Tuesday night, leaving at least 10,000 people homeless. More than 1,800 families were displaced when River Laga burst its banks and 20 people critically injured. (photo)

NORTH DAKOTA - Recent heavy rains are wreaking late-season havoc on parks, bridges and roads, not to mention area farmers still trying to get their crops out of the field. October floods are UNUSUAL but not unprecedented. However, it’s “MUCH MORE UNUSUAL” for the river to rise above its moderate flood stage of 25 feet in October. The Red was projected to crest at 26 feet Thursday afternoon or evening. Fargo residents say they can’t recall such severe Red River flooding this late in the year and it hasn’t happened in modern recorded history. Saturated soils in the fall can exacerbate spring flooding, but it’s too early to tell what next spring will bring. The area was concerned about drought earlier this year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

AUTUMN AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE ARCTIC, 5C above normal, due to major losses of sea ice as the region suffers more effects from a warming trend dating back decades. In addition, wild reindeer and caribou herds appear to be declining in numbers. The report also noted melting of surface ice in Greenland.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
Cost of food: Global roundup - Ordinary Indians are facing significantly increased hardship because of the rise in the cost of food. Two thirds of India's population are forced to get by on less than two dollars (£1.15; 1.47 euros) a day.
Inflation in Egypt is at a 16-year high with soaring food prices triggering violent protests in some areas of the country this year Many poorer families in Cairo - some of whom spend 80% of their household income on food - have been making savings by cutting their meals from three a day to just two.
Many people in the United Kingdom are feeling the pinch as meat and fish products rose by 22.9% from January to August.
Those in charge of the Chinese economy received some welcome news this summer - inflation fell to its lowest level in more than a year. Earlier in 2008, prices - particular for basic food items such as pork and eggs - had been rising faster than at any time in the past decade.
Food prices have more than doubled in the past year in Ethiopia.
Rice - the staple crop in this part of Asia - reached record prices this year in Thailand.
About one third of the Argentine wage goes on food.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008 -

Who is rich? He that is content.
Who is that? Nobody.
Benjamin Franklin

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/14/08 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.1 GREECE
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

CHINA - Early snow leaves 400 quake-zone families in the cold in NW China - Quake-hit Wuqia County, a mountainous area in the far west of China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, was hit by an early winter when the first snowfall on Tuesday left more than 400 families in the cold. After several days of rain, the snow began to fall early on Tuesday, lowering the temperature to minus 3 to minus 4 degrees Celsius in the 7,800-square-km quake zone. "My house has cracks and I dare not live inside any more," said a herdsman who built a yurt in the courtyard in Ulugqat, one of four towns hit by the quake. The cold draft blew in from almost everywhere, leaving his wife with a cold. A 6.8-magnitude earthquake jolted the county on the evening of Oct. 5, affecting 7,645 people. More than 700 houses suffered structural damage, while four collapsed. The regional earthquake monitoring network had observed 1,237 aftershocks as of 10 p.m. Monday, with the largest 5.9 on the Richter scale.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
THAILAND - 10 provinces warned of big waves, storms before year-end. Ten provinces on the coast of the Gulf of Thailand have been warned to brace for one or two storms before year-end, which could unleash big waves to hit the provinces. The Meteorological Department has alerted the governors of the provinces to make preparations for the storms, which could hit the Gulf of Thailand anytime from this month until December. The storms will also unleash heavy rains and cause flooding in the provinces.

ALASKA is at the vanguard of climate change. The state's northern parts have seen an average temperature rise of three degrees celsius in recent decades. Now the permafrost is melting. 181 Alaskan villages may be threatened by erosion. Fifteen villages are a priority, of which three are urgent. As the northern bank of the Ninglik River melts and slides into the tidal water, the body of the river is moving steadily towards the village of Newtok. It is a village of fewer than 400 people, in the waterlogged tundra of the Yukon Delta. The only way in or out is by the tiny plane that flies daily from Bethel, 100 miles (160km) to the west. Flood defences have been tried, and have failed. The river encroaches by around 130ft (40m) each spring and summer, and it might swallow Newtok within a few years. "Climate change is an immediate and serious problem for people all around this state. It's hitting us in a variety of ways right now. It's particularly hitting rural Alaska, with flooding and erosion. It's also changing patterns of our fish and game around the state, which is impacting people's ability to get the subsistence foods they've relied on for hundreds of years." Climate change could cause damage not just at the coast, but to runways, roads and structures right across the state. (photo / coastline erosion timeline)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Tropical depression 16 was 51 nmi ENE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.
Tropical depression NANA was 993 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Category 1 Hurricane OMAR was 236 nmi NNW of Caracas, Venezuela.
Tropical storm TWENTYTWO was 114 nmi SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam.

Omar strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane late Tuesday as it chugged across the Caribbean toward Puerto Rico. At 11 p.m. EDT, the storm's maximum sustained winds were about 75 mph, up from 40 mph at 11 a.m. Omar was expected to gain strength further today. Hurricane warnings were posted for the U.S. Virgin Islands and for the British Virgins and St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelmy, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was in effect for Puerto Rico, and forecasters said that was likely to be a hurricane warning by this morning. Forecasters warned Omar is likely to bring heavy rain in Puerto Rico and smaller islands in its path and to the northern coast of Venezuela. The rain could trigger flash floods. The storm was also expected to bring heavy swells and battering surf.
Tropical Storm Omar drenched islands in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, downing trees and blowing off part of a school's roof as it menaced U.S. islands. Officials in Puerto Rico warned residents of the U.S. Caribbean territory, already soaked from several days of rain, to prepare for lots more. Omar's expected path could take it over Puerto Rico overnight, or it could drift further east over the nearby U.S. and British Virgin Islands. It was expected to plow northeast toward the central North Atlantic, well away from the U.S. mainland.

Tropical Depression 22W became a tropical storm as of Tuesday evening, local time, while slipping between Hainan Dao and northern Vietnam. Landfall and breakup inland awaits TS 22W early today, local time, in Vietnam south of Hanai. Landfall will cut short further strengthening, so local torrential rain, spread along and near its direct path, rather than high wind will be the most serious aspect of this storm. 22W already has a made its mark by way of excessive rainfall as of Tuesday. Highest rainfall has been unleashed upon the eastern side of Hainan. At Haikou, rainfall was at least 21.6 inches/54.9 cm (and still falling) within 48 to 60 hours as of 1200 UTC Tuesday. At Qionghai, rainfall was 16.3 inches/41.4 cm.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
KANSAS - The Kansas rain is bringing a classic “feast or famine” scenario for most residents. Some haven’t seen this much rain in decades, while others in the extreme south-west are just trying to stay out of a drought. Right now, south central Kansas is only 31 hundredths of an inch away from BREAKING A RECORD FOR YEARLY RAINFALL. Wichita is currently at 50.18 inches for the year. The record, set in 1951, was 50.48 inches. “That 57-year-old record we're probably going to beat it now in the next 24 hours and here we are in October still with two full months of the year left.” This rainfall is serving as a double-edged sword for farmers by preventing them from getting in the field and harvesting their fall crops. But it's also very beneficial for a freshly planted wheat crop. (photo / video)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEVADA - The high of 62 degrees on Saturday SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE. The previous record was 65 degrees set on Oct. 11, 1997. The 60-degree mark on Sunday SHATTERED THE RECORD of 62 degrees set on Oct. 12, 1947.

List of RECORD LOWS in 2008 in the U.S., plus excessive snow and rainfall.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Wind-whipped wildfires continued to burn through Southern California on Tuesday after scorching nearly 27000 acres.

A new NASA study shows that the rising frequency and intensity of arctic storms over the last half century, attributed to progressively warmer waters, directly provoked acceleration of the rate of arctic sea ice drift, long considered by scientists as a bellwether of climate change. "Gradually warming waters have driven storm tracks - the ocean paths in the Atlantic and Pacific along which most cyclones travel - northward. We speculate that sea ice serves as the 'middleman' in a scenario where increased storm activity yields increased stirring winds that will speed up the Arctic's transition into a body of turbulently mixing warm and cool layers with greater potential for deep convection that will alter climate further. What I find truly intriguing about confirming the link between the rise in storminess and increased sea ice drift is the possibility that new sinks for carbon dioxide may emerge from this relationship that could function as negative feedback for global warming." The pace of sea ice movement along the Arctic Ocean's Transpolar Drift Stream from Siberia to the Atlantic Ocean accelerated in both summer and winter over the last 55 years. Progressively stronger storms over the Transpolar Drift Stream forced sea ice to drift increasingly faster in a matter of hours after the onset of storms. The moving sea ice forces the ocean to move which sets off significantly more mixing of the upper layers of the ocean than would occur without the "push" from the ice. The increased mixing of the ocean layer forces a greater degree of ocean convection, and instability that offers negative feedback to climate warming. "Although it remains to be seen how this may ultimately play out in the future, the likelihood this increasing trend and link between storminess and ice drift could expand the Arctic's role as a sink for extracting fossil fuel-generated carbon dioxide from the air is simply fascinating. If it unfolds in the way we suppose, this scenario could, of course, affect the whole climate system and its evolution."

Tuesday, October 14, 2008 -

The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/13/08 -
5.2 TAJIKISTAN
5.2 KYRGYZSTAN
5.1 TONGA
5.0 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.0 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
and a gazillion small aftershocks in the Virgin Islands over the last few days since the 6.1 quake on the 11th.

VIRGIN ISLANDS - movie stars were filming in Puerto Rico when the tremor - measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale - struck Sunday night. It was THE STRONGEST QUAKE TO HIT THE REGION IN 20 YEARS. George Clooney and Ewan McGregor went straight back to work on the anti-war satire 'Men Who Stare At Goats'. No one was injured in the trembler which hit on the 90th anniversary of the worst earthquake ever recorded in Puerto Rico, which killed 18 people on October 11, 1918.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
JAPAN - Two people are missing after they were swept away by large waves at a beach in Rumoi, Hokkaido, at around 6 a.m. Sunday. Five people from Asahikawa, Hokkaido, aged between 16 and 19 were reportedly caught by the waves, but three swam safely ashore.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 15 was 257 nmi NNE of Maracaibo, Venezuela. [expected to move to the northeast across Puerto Rico and into the Atlantic.]
Tropical depression NANA was 1065 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
An area of low pressure over the western Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression within the next day or so. Regardless of whether it develops further, heavy rains will affect portions of Nicaragua, Honduras and Belize over the next few days.

Nana, the 14th tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season faded rapidly on Monday but two new tropical systems developed in the Caribbean, threatening Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and also Central America. Tropical Storm Nana, which developed on Sunday roughly midway between the Cape Verde Islands off Africa and the Caribbean, succumbed to adverse atmospheric conditions and weakened into a tropical depression on Monday morning. It was expected to dissipate "within a day or so." The 15th tropical depression of the season, meanwhile, formed around 340 miles southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was expected to drift northwestward for a while before strengthening into a tropical storm and getting the name Omar, and would then shoot off to the northeast near Puerto Rico and potentially grow into a hurricane over the open Atlantic. Neither the remains of Nana nor the new tropical depression were considered a threat to the United States or the oil fields of the Gulf of Mexico. However, a third tropical weather system was developing in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua and could affect Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands or western Cuba. If that system strengthened into a tropical storm with winds of at least 39 miles per hour (63 km per hour), it would be called Paloma.

ST. LUCIA - Landslide mayhem - Disaster officials were busy assessing damage and co-ordinating response efforts. Heavy rain associated with a tropical system blanketed the landscape of St. Lucia. The island’s main arteries, roadways and thoroughfares were submersed in water and impassable for motor vehicular traffic cutting off main population centres. In many low lying communities residences and commercial buildings were inundated by rising flood waters. Residents in the higher elevations where the already saturated top soil had been battered by RECORD RAINFALL were ravaged by landslides. There are reports of damage to property, infrastructure and homes as a result of the showers. The underlying foundation, basic installations and facilities such as roads, bridges, retaining walls and drainage systems were no match for the weather system. In the capital the much vaunted Castries flood mitigation safeguards were overwhelmed by the deluge. The weather forecast is more rain as an upper level trough associated with a slowly moving tropical wave produce cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles. Two other tropical waves located over the central Atlantic are moving westward near thirteen miles per hour. Residents in low-lying areas prone to landslides and flooding are advised to exercise all necessary precaution.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
VIETNAM - 1,500 houses in the central province of Quang Nam were submerged under water due to an unabated heavy rain from October 10 – 12. 14 other houses collapsed and one death was reported. The roads in the residential areas are over 1.5 metres below the water level. The heavy rain also caused blackout. Five mountainous communes of Phuoc Son district were isolated because many portions of the roads were washed away. The heavy rain coupled with a strong whirlwind pulled down thousands of trees and many power poles.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
IDAHO - between 12 and 18 inches of snow fell from early Saturday until Sunday mid-day in the Mini-Cassia region, SHATTERING THE AREA'S WATER-EQUIVALENCE RECORD. Early snowfall in October has come to Burley's region before in recent years, but the weekend's weather was UNUSUAL. Ultimately the snowfall's water equivalence was .73 inches of liquid precipitation at the Burley Airport, breaking the 1984-mark of .34 inches. It was a pretty continuous system for about 36 hours. "Once it started down that way it really did not let up." Elsewhere in the Magic Valley, the snowfall was more scattered Saturday, but not nearly as substantial. There's not as much historical data for the Magic Valley as there is for Boise - it was THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL FOR THE CITY SINCE 1898 - but overall, Idaho's weekend weather wasn't typical. "It was EXTREMELY RARE. This is A VERY UNUSUAL EVENT."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - wildfires near Los Angeles have caused two deaths, with 12,000 people driven from their homes. Deadly brush fires roared out of the foothills and canyons on the northern fringe of Los Angeles, destroying dozens of homes. The first major wildfires of the season threaten hundreds of houses north of the city, in the San Fernando Valley. Southern California is vulnerable to wildfires between October and February when the warm, dry Santa Ana winds blow in, drying out vegetation. Residents were put on alert as winds of more than 60 mph (97 km/h) were forecast. "It is a blowtorch we can't get in front of."

Monday, October 13, 2008 -

He that is of the opinion money will do everything
may well be suspected of doing everything for money.
Benjamin Franklin

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/12/08 -
6.0 CHUQUISACA, BOLIVIA
10/11/08 -
5.1 JAVA SEA
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
6.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
5.2 CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
5.9 CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
10/10/08 -
None 5.0 or higher.

RUSSIA - A strong 6.3 earthquake centred in the restive Russian region of Chechnya killed at least 13 people, injured more than 100 others and caused widespread havoc. The quake, which struck at around 7pm Saturday (AEDT), reverberated through the Caucasus mountains, causing severe damage to infrastructure including roads, power supplies and communications. It lasted some 40 seconds and was felt in five regions of the Russian north Caucasus and as far away as neighbouring Georgia and Armenia. It left hundreds of residents sheltering in tents. The road infrastructure was seriously damaged across large swathes of Chechnya. The US Geological Institute, which put the strength of the quake at 5.9 on the Richter scale, said its epicentre was 40 kilometres east of the Chechen capital Grozny, and 10 kilometres underground.

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Eruption of 3 volcanoes has scientists asking questions - Is there a common thread or were events just coincidence? How likely is it that three neighboring volcanoes would all erupt at the same time - as the Kasatochi, Okmok and Cleveland volcanoes in the Aleutians did this summer? About as likely as a storm that only appears once in a thousand years, says an Anchorage volcanologist. All 40 active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc - a 1,500-mile-long necklace of volcanic peaks that stretch from Kiska Island in the west to Mount Spurr near Anchorage in the east - owe their existence to the deep, subterranean collision of two tectonic plates. But the plumbing isn't necessarily connected, and the volcanoes don't all go off at once. Each has its own combustion chamber, its own pressure issues, and one volcano under stress may well border another one that's quiet. Since Alaska has so many volcanoes, it's not that unusual to have two that erupt the same year. In fact that's the average. And it's not unheard of to have two volcanoes erupting at the same time, especially since some volcanoes blow off steam and ash for weeks or even months. Having three volcanoes in the 1,500-mile arc erupting all at once, however, is less likely. And it's even more unlikely that three volcanoes would all erupt at the same time within 300 miles of each other, as the three central Aleutian peaks did, more or less, in July and August. That makes it harder to dismiss the triple-eruption as a chance occurrence. So geologists are exploring other explanations. One of them focuses on the fact that all three volcanoes lie within the rupture zone of the 1957 "Great Aleutian Earthquake," a magnitude 8.3 tremor that generated a tsunami that damaged buildings in far-off Hawaii. Because there was so much disruption of earth along the quake's fault line, the ground around it was drastically distorted and compressed.

Although the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat exhibits cycles of eruption and quiet, researchers found that magma is continuously supplied from deep in the crust but that a valve acts below a shallower magma chamber, releasing lava to the surface periodically. The pattern of eruptions and pauses might suggest that the magma beneath the Earth behaves in a stop-and-start pattern but the data indicate that magma production beneath the volcano is continuous and relatively constant. During eruptive pauses, the magma supply inflates the deep chamber until this stored magma is released into the upper chamber where it forces a renewed eruption. These observations implicate the deep reservoir in setting the timing of eruptions, rather than the shallow chamber, as had previously been considered.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Sri Lankan scientist predicts another tsunami - On Sunday a senior scientist predicted that there could be a movement in the Sumatra plate during the coming days which might result in an under-sea quake. His prediction was based on the behaviour of under-sea species. He explained that several species of fish which were seen in the Sumatra seas have become widely visible in the seas around Sri Lanka. “These species move out of the areas when they sense these changes to escape possible quakes.” These species, which were usually seen in the seas off Sumatra, were found around the Sri Lanka seas prior to the 2004 tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm NANA was 1274 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados in the Atlantic. [degenerating]
[An area of low pressure off Puerto Rico has the potential to become a tropical depression today. Regardless of whether it develops further, heavy rains will affect Puerto Rico and portions of the Leeward Islands over the nest few days.]
Tropical depression NORBERT was 384 nmi N of Mazatlan, Mexico.[weakened over land]
Tropical depression ODILE was 21 nmi S of Manzanillo, Mexico. [weakening]

Nana, the 14th of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Sunday in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Caribbean islands. It is likely to curve west-northwest over open waters in the Atlantic over the next day or two, well away from the small and vulnerable islands of the Caribbean and from the US mainland.

Hurricane Norbert which struck Mexico's western peninsula has weakened as it makes a second landfall. Norbert, Category 2 with 103 mph (165 km/h) winds, first struck near the city of La Paz in Baja California peninsula on Saturday, blowing down roofs and uprooting trees, bringing with it 13ft (four-metre) waves as it came ashore. Thousands of residents fled to shelters for safety. Norbert then crossed the Gulf of California, before making a second landfall on the north-west mainland as a Category 1 hurricane, pummelling the agricultural states of Sonora and Sinaloa with heavy rains and sustained winds as high as 140km/h. Norbert is no longer classed as a hurricane and has been downgraded to a Category 1 tropical storm, with a wind speed of 60 mph. At 0900 GMT, the storm was 140 miles (225 km) south-west of Chihuahua, Mexico, and was moving in a north-east direction on a path towards Texas.
Norbert has claimed three lives in the north-west state of Sonora.
West Texas officials are preparing for more flooding in the already saturated border town of Presidio as Hurricane Norbert heads toward the Rio Grande. "It's going to be a lot of rain, most of it in the upper Conchos watershed, and the reservoirs are full, so the water has to come out through Presidio." Residents of Presidio have already spent weeks wondering if an earthen levee holding back the swollen Rio Grande would break.

Hong Kong is on the watch out for a group of escaped crocodiles and alligators that broke out of a theme park in southern China during Typhoon Hagiput. Up to 200 reptiles ranging from 2-metre Chinese alligators to saltwater crocodiles that can grow up to 6 metres reportedly escaped a fortnight ago.

Hurricane Ike was the third most destructive storm to hit the U.S. coast, ranking just behind Katrina and Andrew. The good news is that it could have been even worse. National Weather Service meteorologists called Ike "A STORM IN ITS OWN CLASS," defying forecasters' attempts to predict how it would develop. After Ike entered the Gulf of Mexico, barometric pressure began falling, from 968 millibars to 944 on Sept. 10. The low pressure associated with Ike, along with a second eye wall that developed sometime before the storm made landfall, gave meteorologists good reason to believe the storm would intensify. For reasons still unknown, it didn't. "The low pressure could have supported stronger winds." A possible explanation for why Ike didn't reach its full potential is that within the storm, the distribution of pressure gradients was broad enough to stabilize the winds. But what Ike lacked in wind speeds, it more than made up for in storm surge. Ike will be most remembered for the massive surge that slammed coastal regions, leaving behind widespread devastation from Galveston to Bridge City. Sabine Pass was drowned under a surge measured higher than 14 feet at its peak, THE HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD AT THAT SPOT. The large storm surge reflected an equally massive storm. Flights into Ike on Sept. 11 measured a swath of tropical storm force winds about 450 miles wide, with a ball of hurricane force winds 180 miles across. Perhaps the greatest conundrum of Ike was the way the low pressure associated with it translated to a savage storm surge without spawning equally intense winds. "It's very difficult to understand the pressure-to-wind relationship." Ike was very nearly a Category 3 upon landfall, and post storm analysis could still upgrade the storm's status.
Hurricane Ike spread destruction across more than 1500 miles. You could tell immediately that there was something different about the tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Aug. 28. Unlike most of the 60 to 80 disturbances that exit the Africa coast from May through October, this wave seemed pretty special. As it turned out, the cluster of rain and wind would go down in history. A few days in the warm Atlantic waters was all the disturbance would need before strengthening into a tropical storm and receiving the name Ike. The storm intensified into a hurricane on Sept. 3 and became a major hurricane just 24 hours later. On Sept. 4, Hurricane Ike had sustained winds of 145 mph. Thanks to a persistently strong high-pressure system, moving in tandem with the storm, Ike was steered south of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, gradually intensifying as it approached the Texas coast. The storm made landfall along the northern end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of Sept. 13 as a Category 2 hurricane. Early damage estimates topped $31 billion. No longer a hurricane but still boasting that large wind field, the storm merged with a trough of low pressure over the Central Plains, carving a 1,500-mile path of wind damage from Texas through the Midwest. Arkansas was hit first with high winds and heavy rain. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio were next as the remnants of Ike swept through the Midwest. In Ohio, damage totals from Ike's gusty winds may top $1 billion, making it THE COSTLIEST STORM IN OHIO HISTORY.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Blayney and Millthorpe residents spent the weekend sharing horror stories as they mopped up from a wild storm on Friday afternoon that left a trail of destruction in the area. The EXTRAORDINARY storm, which some locals described as THE WORST THEY HAD SEEN FOR 50 YEARS, swept though the area and dumped eight inches of hail on rooftops before being followed by gale-force winds and heavy rain. The damage included collapsed ceilings, shredded gardens, knocked down trees and destroyed crops. “I have been here around 50 years and this is the worst storm I have ever seen. The water was just so intense, there was about eight to 10 inches of hail on our flat roof and it was probably four inches deep on the pitched roof. We’ve just never seen anything like that before the whole time we’ve lived here.”

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CALIFORNIA - Firefighters backed by water-dumping helicopters and planes gained ground Sunday on a wildfire that destroyed two homes and forced the evacuation of about 1200 people in a rugged area 20 miles north of downtown Los Angeles.

Friday, October 10, 2008 -

The higher the buildings, the lower the morals.
Noel Coward

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
10/9/08 -
5.3 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.9 TONGA
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane NORBERT was 238 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm ODILE was 161 nmi SW of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

COSTA RICA - A “tropical wave” – rain, rain and more rain – is likely to traverse Costa Rica today. The weather system, called an onda tropical in Spanish, will start early morning on the Caribbean side and sweep across the country, with the chance of becoming a tropical storm after it spills over into the Pacific Ocean by early evening. The wave is common for October but puts a damper on efforts to rebuild some 300 homes, many in Cartago and eastern San José, that were soaked and pummeled in last week's heavy rains and runoff from overflowing rivers. A weakening Hurricane Norbert headed toward Mexico's Baja California yesterday, while Tropical Storm Odile – which as a low-pressure system dumped on Costa Rica last week – gained steam off Mexico's Pacific coast.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Six people died in a landslide early today in north China's Shanxi Province.

ODD-
ANOTHER VIRGIN SHARK BIRTH - Scientists using DNA testing have confirmed the second-known instance of "virgin birth" in a shark - a female Atlantic blacktip shark named Tidbit that produced a baby without a male shark. The shark came to the Virginia Aquarium & Marine Science Center in Virginia Beach not long after being born in the wild and lived there for eight years with no males of the same species. The 5-foot (1.5-meter) shark died after being removed from the tank for a veterinary examination, and a subsequent necropsy revealed that Tidbit was carrying a fully developed shark pup nearly ready to be born. DNA testing showed the pup had no father. Virgin birth such as this is known as parthenogenesis. A year ago, a hammerhead shark at a zoo in Omaha gave birth to a pup in 2002, also after parthenogenesis. "It tells us that the original case we documented last year was not some fluke of nature. This is something that might be more common than we think it is, and widespread among sharks." Parthenogenesis also has been documented in Komodo dragons, snakes, birds, fish and amphibians.

Thursday, October 9, 2008 -

There is some magic in wealth, which can thus make persons pay their court to it,
when it does not even benefit themselves.
How strange it is, that a fool or knave, with riches, should be treated with more respect by the world,
than a good man, or a wise man in poverty!
Ann Radcliff

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/8/08 -
5.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.5 EASTERN XIZANG
5.3 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.2 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS

KYRGYZSTAN - The death toll following the earthquake that hit southern Kyrgyzstan over the weekend has risen to 75, with 200 injured, 128 houses destroyed and more than 70 per cent of infrastructure damaged in Nura village (population 941).

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Redoubt steams, but still 'normal'. Reports last month by a pilot of a strong hydrogen sulfide odor and by nearby residents of loud noises coming from Redoubt Volcano has focused attention by scientists of the Alaska Volcano Observatory on the volcano 51 miles east of Kenai. No increased earthquake activity has been measured, and the alert level for Redoubt remains at normal and the aviation code remains at green. Redoubt last erupted in the winter of 1989-90, depositing ash over much of the Kenai Peninsula. A Boeing 747 jet flew into an ash cloud on Dec. 18, 1989, causing all four engines to stop. The jet fell about 10,000 feet before the pilot restarted the engines. In the recent overflight, scientists reported new fractures and circular openings in the upper Drift Glacier on the north side of Redoubt. Fumaroles on the 1968 and 1990 domes also were seen to be steaming more vigorously. A distinct hydrogen sulfide odor also was observed on the overflight, but instruments did not detect sulfur dioxide. Seismic instruments on Redoubt have not shown increased small earthquakes above normal background levels. However, in a second report released late Friday, AVO noted weak but anomalous volcanic seismicity on Redoubt. Volcanic activity remains very low, but is slightly above background levels. Scientists also are restoring some seismic stations that hadn't been working fully. Before the 1989 eruption, several thousand small earthquakes at Redoubt were reported in a day, as opposed to just a handful now.

ITALY - Residents of Naples, Italy, panicked when they heard a sonic boom Wednesday, thinking the Mount Vesuvius volcano had erupted. Neopolitans rushed to the phones, jamming switchboards at the city's eruption hot line with calls until they realized the noise was caused by Italian F-16s breaking the sound barrier while scrambling to intercept an unidentified aircraft. Naples goes through Mount Vesuvius scares fairly often. The last major scare was in August 2007 after the U.S. magazine National Geographic claimed Naples' evacuation plans wouldn't get people out in time if Vesuvius erupted as it did in A.D. 79 when it buried the city of Pompeii.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane NORBERT was 332 nmi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm ODILE was 212 nmi S of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Hurricane Norbert's winds weakened overnight to reach a top speed of 185km/h (115mph), category three. It is due to veer towards Mexico's Baja California peninsula and mainland over the next two days. Mexican farmers are rushing to finish field work before the rains sweep in. Hoteliers are also securing their property in Baja California. (satellite photo / map)
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Odile, the 15th named storm in the Eastern Pacific's hurricane season, has formed with maximum sustained winds of nearly 65km/h (40mph). It is centred about 505km (315 miles) south-east of Puerto Angel, Mexico, but is expected to remain offshore as it moves north-west.
Tropical Storm Marco, which hit Mexico's other (Gulf) coast late on Tuesday, has weakened to a tropical depression. While it caused flooding in the state of Veracruz, Marco caused no major damage to the country's oil and gas installations.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

More people died from natural disasters in the first six months of 2008 than in the Asian tsunami of 2004 due mainly to the earthquake in China and cyclone in Myanmar. "2008 is a terrible year." More than 230,000 people lost their lives from disasters and another 130 million were affected. Cyclone Nargis which hit Mynamar in May is estimated to have killed around 138,000 people while the earthquake in south-west China's Sichuan province left a death toll of 87,500. Record floods in India as well as a devastating hurricane season in the Caribbeans also all contributed to the grim statistics. The UN estimates the economic cost of natural disasters for the first half of this year at 35 billion dollars (26 billion euros), up from an average of 15 billion dollars for the same period over the past ten years.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008 -

Endless money forms the sinews of war.
Cicero

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/7/08 -
5.6 ARCTIC OCEAN
5.4 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Volcano Nevado del Huila in southeast Colombia displayed prolonged "seismicity" last weekend, causing alarm to the inhabitants of the surrounded urban and rural zones. Small eruptive chains that normally produce 400 movements were even more active this weekend. The volcano has ejected only mud and ashes so far, but a large eruption at any moment, or at least more solid materials, that would leave disastrous results. Authorities maintain a yellow alert in the zone, but will raise it to orange if the situation continues. Various experts arrived in the area Tuesday to analyze the abrupt changes. The volcano has been on alert since September 11, when a renewed bout of activity took hold. Five days later, it was struck by an earthquake.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
CALIFORNIA - Woman feared lost to high waves. A search was under way Sunday for a 42-year-old Irish woman who is missing and feared drowned at Salt Point State Park, where she was on a retreat with several others. It is believed that she was washed off of Horseshoe Point, a rocky outcropping in Horseshoe Cove, by waves that were running 15 feet high Saturday afternoon. When she didn't make it to a meeting place, the group went looking for her. Her companions reached Horseshoe Point in time to see her pants wash out to sea. They also found her backpack, other clothing and shoes. The woman is one of a dozen people who have died along the coast of Sonoma and Mendocino counties this year. Seven of the victims were abalone divers or picking abalone from rocks on the coast, and the others were washed into the ocean by LARGE WAVES THAT SEEMINGLY APPEAR OUT OF NOWHERE.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression MARCO was 140 nmi S of Tampico, Mexico.
Category Three Hurricane NORBERT was 359 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

Tropical storm Marco roared ashore on Mexico's Gulf coast with near-hurricane force winds on Tuesday, dumping heavy rains, flooding coastal areas and forcing evacuations.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
A food crisis is highly likely in the UK, with price and availability becoming issues that swing the outcome of future elections. The UK's food system is unable to cope with rapid changes in supply driven by climate change, rising energy prices and population growth. Consumers are likely to have to accept a shift from individual preferences to a system in which government and industry have to ensure the food that is sold reflects the wider needs of society. "With rising prices and increasing demand across the globe, we can't take our food supply for granted. Our supply needs to be reliable and resilient and able to withstand shocks and crises."

ON THIS DAY IN HISTORY -
- In 1871, the massive Chicago fire destroyed more than 17,000 buildings, killed more than 300 people and left 90,000 homeless.
Also in 1871, on the same day, a forest fire broke out at Peshtigo, Wisconsin, eventually killing about 1,100 people while burning some 850 square miles.
- In 2005, a death toll close to 40,000 was reported in India and Pakistan after a powerful earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale struck the area. The quake brought down buildings and triggered mudslides that buried houses.
Also in 2005, Tropical Storm Stan killed more than 500 people in Guatemala before losing its strength over mountainous Mexico.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008 -

The difference between a moral man and a man of honor is that the latter regrets a discreditable act,
even when it has worked and he has not been caught.
H. L. Mencken

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/6/08 -
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.3 EASTERN XIZANG
5.0 EASTERN XIZANG
5.1 EASTERN XIZANG
6.6 EASTERN XIZANG
5.1 ORURO, BOLIVIA

Arctic quake sends waves through Nevada - Scientists say what appeared to be an earthquake in northeastern Nevada was actually a seismograph picking up waves from an earlier quake in the Arctic Ocean. A preliminary report from the U.S. Geological Survey said a magnitude-4.2 temblor centered about 18 miles west of North Fork shook Elko County at 3:07 a.m. Tuesday. Phases from a magnitude-5.8 quake in the Arctic Ocean seven minutes earlier had been wrongly interpreted by a seismograph as a local quake. The shaking could not be felt in Nevada, but waves from a quake like the one in the Arctic can be detected around the world.

TIBET - Nine people were killed in the pair of earthquakes that struck Tibet, a lower toll than the 30 that had initially been reported. Monday quakes injured 19 people, caused 147 homes to collapse and made 153 families homeless. A 6.6 magnitude quake hit about 4:30 p.m. Monday (4:30 a.m. ET). It was centered about 52 miles (84 km) west of Lhasa, the Tibetan capital. About 15 minutes later, a 5.1-magnitude aftershock struck in the same area. A total of 188 tremors hit the region.
KYRGYZSTAN is observing an official day of mourning as rescuers search the rubble for victims and signs of life a day after an earthquake killed at least 74 people. The 6.6-magnitude quake yesterday near Kyrgyzstan’s borders with Tajikistan and China [Tibet] flattened the remote village of Nura, leaving just a handful of small houses standing.

MYSTERY BOOMS - TURN OUT TO BE AN EARTHQUAKE -
PENNSYLVANIA - 10/5/08 - Carroll Township emergency personnel responded to numerous calls Sunday about “explosions” that turned out to be a recordable earthquake. Police in the York County municipality first responded to calls regarding an explosion at 6:39 p.m. While police and fire officials met with residents, police say another explosion was heard and a tremor felt. Patrols continued to check the area in a five-mile radius, during which time two more explosions and tremors were felt and heard. The state Department of Environmental Protection was called and reported no permits for blasting in the area. At 10:30 p.m., Columbia Gas reported no natural gas leaks in the area. The mystery was solved when the York County 911 center received information from the National Earthquake Information Center regarding a 2.0 tremor in the area about 6:30 p.m. One resident described the tremors as explosions followed by a very brief vibration. "It sounded like an explosion. It felt like the aftershock of an explosion." The tremors, he said, lasted about a second or two. They continued through the night. One woke him and his wife at 2:18 in the morning, and they felt two others at about 4 a.m. "It's scary because it's unknown." (map)

VOLCANOES -
INDONESIA - Mount Soputan volcano spews smoke 1000 metres into the air - The volcano erupted Monday in central Indonesia, shooting clouds of smoke and flames into the night sky. The nearest villages are about eight kilometres from the crater's mouth, well out of the danger zone. No evacuations have been ordered, but people are being advised to stay well clear because the volcano may begin to spew lava. A new lava dome has been forming at the peak of Mount Soputan since a big eruption in 1991.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm MARCO was 161 nmi SSE of Tampico, Mexico.[MARCO HAS MADE LANDFALL AND THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN.]
Tropical depression MARIE was 804 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Hurricane NORBERT was 339 nmi SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

Hurricane Norbert is forecast to strike Mexico at about 18:00 GMT on October 11.

Typhoon Jangmi roared toward eastern China on Monday after lashing Taiwan with torrential rains and powerful winds that killed two people and injured more than 30. Jangmi - the fourth and most powerful typhoon to hit the island this year - made landfall in Ilan county in northeastern Taiwan at mid-afternoon Sunday. Jangmi was downgraded to a tropical storm early Monday as it moved north toward seas off eastern China. But offices and schools were shut down Monday because of the storm's impact, and the Taiwan stock market was closed. Power was cut to 86,000 households as the area was hit by gusts of up to 140 mph, THE HIGHEST LEVEL THE BUREAU'S EQUIPMENT CAN MEASURE. The strong winds overturned a bus on a highway near the northeastern city of Ilan, injuring 36 passengers. Outer bands of the storm continued to dump heavy rains in central and southern Taiwan Monday, with the scenic Alishan resort area recording nearly 32 inches of rain. Authorities evacuated more than 3,000 villagers from landslide-prone areas and closed 34 bridges on overflowing rivers. Typhoons frequently hit Taiwan between July and October, causing flash floods and deadly landslides. Two weeks ago Typhoon Sinlaku killed 12 people and left 10 others missing and presumed dead.

SPACE WEATHER-
Small Incoming Asteroid Predicted to Cause Brilliant Fireball over Northern Sudan - A very small, [10 feet across] three-meters-sized asteroid, designated 2008 TC3, was found Monday morning by the Catalina Sky Survey. Preliminary orbital computations by the Minor Planet Center suggested an atmospheric entry of this object within a day of discovery. JPL confirmed that an atmospheric impact would very likely occur during early morning twilight over northern Sudan, north-eastern Africa, at 2:46 UT this morning. The fireball, which could be brilliant, will travel west to east at a relative atmospheric impact velocity of 12.8 km/s and arrive at a very low angle (19 degrees) to the local horizon. It is very unlikely that any sizable fragments will survive passage through the Earth's atmosphere. Objects of this size would be expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere every few months on average but THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SUCH AN EVENT HAS BEEN PREDICTED AHEAD OF TIME. (orbit paths)
In the early hours this morning the fireball exploded with the equivalent of a thousand tonnes of TNT over northern Sudan. The asteroid was about the size of a car and entered the atmosphere over the African country of Sudan going about eight miles a second. The light was so intense that it lit up the sky like a full moon and an airliner 1,400km (870 miles) away reported seeing the bright flash. It sounds catastrophic, but the rock was totally annihilated as it smashed into the atmosphere, and there was no chance of it hitting the ground. There are 5,681 such near-Earth objects, but only 757 of them are considered large enough to cause any damage if they hit Earth. If a dangerously large object were spotted in time the hope is to give enough warning to evacuate any people living in the likely crash zone, although the logistics involved would be mind-boggling. However, it would be difficult to escape a 300m space rock. These strike every 60,000 years or so, and could trigger a monster-sized tsunami if they hit the sea. And an asteroid measuring more than a kilometre in diameter strikes Earth roughly every few hundred thousand years. This would obliterate everything in and around the impact zone and send the world’s climate into such turmoil that civilisation as we know it would collapse.

HEALTH THREATS -
Taiwanese politicians wearing surgical masks and displaying banners with skull and crossbones took over parliament's floor after the country's security chief accused China of starting the global SARS epidemic on purpose. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) originated in southern China in 2002 and killed hundreds of people around the world - including about 350 in China - bringing Asian tourism and air industries almost to a halt. An initial cover-up of the epidemic led to the sacking of Beijing's mayor and the health minister and led to scores of conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus. "At that time insider information indicated that SARS was a biological weapon." Taiwan's sources in China suspect biological warfare, but conclusive evidence has not surfaced. Conspiracy theories about SARS have appeared before. After two Russian scientists said that SARS could have been manufactured in labs, Chinese activists pointed to the United States, saying Washington might be using it against China.

Monday, October 6, 2008 -

Save a little money each month and at the end of the year
you'll be surprised at how little you have.
Ernest Haskins

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/5/08 -
5.9 CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
5.1 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.1 KYRGYZSTAN
5.5 KYRGYZSTAN
6.6 KYRGYZSTAN
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
6.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.2 LAC KIVU REGION, CONGO

KYRGYZSTAN - A powerful 6.6 earthquake struck the mountains of Central Asia, killing 70 people. It leveled the high-altitude village of Nura on Kyrgyzstan's border with China. The quake injured about 50 people in addition to the deaths.

IRAN - Three earthquakes measuring 4, 3.3 and 3.4 on the Richter scale, respectively, jolted different areas in Iran's southern province of Hormozgan on Saturday. The first quake hit Dargahan while the second and third tremor both jolted the provincial capital city of Bandar Abbas. The last deadly quake in Iran happened on Sept. 10 when a magnitude-6.1 earthquake killed at least 7 people and injured almost 47 more in Hormozgan, although there have been a number of moderate quakes which have left many injured.

RUSSIA - Three earthquakes measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale have hit Lake Baikal. The epicentre was located in the lake's water area 25 kilometres to the east of the town of Baikalsk. The first underground tremor was registered at about 18:00 local time on Saturday (12:52 Moscow time). The second tremor of the same intensity was felt 42 minutes later and the third 6.0 tremor occurred six seconds later.

JAPAN - Tectonic fragment linked to Tokyo's quake peril - A massive slab of rock lurking beneath the Kanto Plain on the central Japanese island of Honshu is a major source of the earthquake threat that dogs Tokyo. Around 100 kilometres (60 miles) wide and 25 kms (15 miles) thick, the chunk is jammed between tectonic plates that converge beneath the flat, densely-populated plain. The giant fragment is a potent trigger for a hugely destructive kind of quake, for it wedges between two of the plates and prevents them from sliding smoothly over one other. As a result, tensions build up until the stored energy is released catastrophically, rather than in smaller, safer movements. The Tokyo region has been hit by major earthquakes in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which claimed 105,000 lives. According to a 2005 estimate by Japan's Central Disaster Management Council, recurrence of any quake of a similar size would inflict costs today of around 100 billion dollars.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm MARIE was 767 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm NORBERT was 259 nmi SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Norbert formed off Mexico's Pacific coast and was expected to turn into a hurricane early this week. Norbert is headed toward Baja California but is not forecast to make a direct hit on the peninsula.

Tropical Storm Marie continues to weaken far off Mexico's Pacific coast.

AUSTRALIA - A group of Darwin storm enthusiasts says the Top End is likely to experience a more severe cyclone season than usual. Storms could begin this week. "It appears that we may be in for a more active season, and the reason for this is that the sea surface temperatures to our north, and our north-west which is where our monsoon originates from, are warmer than usual. The southern states have experienced more rain and so we're moving towards a more active rainfall season as well."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALGERIA - A baby has been found alive and in good health after four days in a pool of mud following flash-flooding in Algeria. The baby, found late on Saturday following a search, will stay with another family until its parents are identified. A total of 41 people have been killed and 48 injured following torrential rains that lashed the area last week. Hundreds of troops have been sent to prevent looting and help with recovery operations. Thousands of blankets, tents and food units have been handed out in Ghardaia, home to about 100,000 people.

THAILAND - Heavy flooding across Thailand during the past 24 days from September 11 to October 4 injured and sickened 217308 people and drowned 24.

MEXICO has been going through some major flooding problems recently which haven't been highlighted by the media. The first event was around the same time when Hurricane Ike hit the U.S., but was unrelated. Heavy rains caused the Rio Grande river to break a levee, flooding border facilities in Presidio, Texas. The second event was last week, when flooding in Minatitlan caused widespread evacuations. Over 50,000 people have been evacuated in Villahermosa as well, to the east of Minatitlan. Mexican officials are keeping oil wells shut in Veracruz due to severe flooding from heavy rains along Mexico's Gulf coast. (photos)

NICARAGUA - Authorities in Nicaragua have declared a state of alert along the country's Pacific coast after heavy rain left at least nine people dead and four missing.

BRITAIN - four inches of rain fell in 24 hours in some parts of the country yesterday - equivalent to a whole month's rain in a single day. The miserable conditions marked the end of summer, although many Britons might argue that it never really began this year. More heavy rain is expected tomorrow.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CYPRUS - Heat and ongoing drought is killing trees, which are increasingly drying up, threatening serious ecological damages.

NEW ZEALAND - Drought's impact to continue for years - Underfed livestock mean many farmers still face continuing impacts from the 2008 summer-autumn drought over the next couple of financial years.

AUSTRALIA - September 2008 was THE DRIEST ON RECORD in Melbourne, and the outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that below-average rainfall will continue.

U.S. droughts can last for centuries - Dips in the sun's activity have triggered centuries-long droughts in eastern North America.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
The number of people around the globe afflicted by acute hunger rose from 850 million to 925 million by the start of 2008 because of rising prices.

U.S. - Supermarket prices for 16 basic food items SURGED TO A RECORD in the third quarter because of higher commodity costs and increased processing and transportation expenses. The average cost of typical weekly consumer purchases rose 11%. Retail prices for flour, potatoes, cheddar cheese and apples showed the largest increases in the quarter. A 5-pound bag of flour cost $2.62, up 37% from a year earlier, while 5 pounds of potatoes rose 32% to $3.38. Prices for cheddar cheese and apples surged 21%. Vegetable oil rose 17%, a dozen eggs jumped 13%, pork chops were up 6.8% and hamburger cost 5% more. The share of the food dollar that went to farmers and ranchers fell to 19% in the quarter, THE LOWEST IN THE 20 YEARS of the quarterly survey's history and down from about 32% in 1980. Food-price inflation may run as high as 6% this year, THE HIGHEST SINCE 1980.

The U.S. Agriculture Department reduced its forecast for this year's corn and soybean harvests due to drier weather, potentially leading to higher commodity prices. While the predicted corn crop will be eight per cent below last year's, it would still be the second largest on record. The soybean crop would be 13 per cent higher than last year's and the fourth largest ever. That represents a turnaround from earlier this summer, when some analysts feared the Midwestern floods in June had devastated the crops and would make already-expensive agricultural commodities even pricier. While the USDA expects a large corn harvest, demand from exports and ethanol companies also remains high.

The drought is being blamed for what's expected to be fewer and smaller SHRIMP in this year's shrimp baiting season in SOUTH CAROLINA.

NORTH CAROLINA - The APPLE CROP could take a serious hit from the drought, with some growers estimating apple size will be down considerably.

ETHIOPIA - The food security situation in Ethiopia has deteriorated to alarming levels in the wake of drought conditions throughout much of the Horn of Africa.

ARGENTINA - The WORST DROUGHT IN 50 YEARS has left 10 percent of the farm land in five provinces sterile and 400,000 livestock dead.

Sunday, October 5, 2008 -

Make money your god and it will plague you like the devil.
Henry Fielding

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/4/08 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KHABAROVSKIY KRAY, RUSSIA
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 WEST CHILE RISE
5.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
10/3/08 -
5.5 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Redoubt Volcano reported steaming. An overflight last week by the Alaska Volcano Observatory saw increased steaming. Scientists flew to the volcano about 51 miles east of Kenai following reports on Sept. 16 by a pilot of a strong hydrogen sulfide odor and on Sept. 23 by nearby residents of loud noises coming from the volcano. No increased earthquake activity has been measured, and the alert level for Redoubt remains at normal. In the overflight on Sept. 27, scientists reported new fractures and openings in the upper Drift Glacier on the north side of Redoubt. Fumaroles on the 1968 and 1990 domes also were seen to be steaming more vigorously. A distinct hydrogen sulfide odor also was smelled on the overflight, but instruments did not detect sulfur dioxide. Seismic instruments on Redoubt have not shown increased small earthquakes above normal background levels. Redoubt last erupted in 1989-90, causing ash to fall on the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage, and shutting down air traffic. In the months before the 1989-1990 eruption, increased activity in fumaroles and sulfur odors preceded the eruption - but there also was an increase in earthquakes. If the current low-level unrest leads to an eruption, an increase in earthquake activity should be noticed.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Tsunami threat 'is growing in United Kingdom' - The UK could be at increasing risk from tsunami, and especially amid climate change, two experts have claimed. The destructive waves strike UK shores more than people think. Climate change may have an unforeseen effect and increase the likelihood of tsunami as a result of sea-level rises and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Both could potentially trigger undersea earthquakes and landslides which could generate massive tsunami in the North Atlantic which in turn could hit the UK. The historical disasters from the last 1000 years that were examined included events associated with earthquakes in the Bristol Channel, Dover Straits and Thames Estuary and along the Essex, Devon and Cornwall, Scottish and Pembrokeshire coasts. "These forgotten floods may not all be tsunami, but the association of many of them to known tsunami causes, such as earthquakes and comets, does support our interpretation. However, any future tsunami in the UK is likely to be on a far smaller scale and more localised than the tsunami that occur in either the Pacific or Indian Oceans."

NEW ZEALAND - Whitebait fishermen at Kairaki Beach, near Kaiapoi, ran for their lives after seeing what appeared to be a wall of water heading towards them early Friday afternoon. Some eye-witnesses remain adamant that it was more than an optical illusion cited by authorities as the most likely explanation. One fisherman was convinced a huge black line approaching the beach was a tidal wave. "I swear to God I was watching a tsunami through my binoculars," he said. He saw waves breaking out to sea and the water was definitely stirred up. "My heart was going 100 miles an hour. I was gone. There were people coming off the beach in trucks and trailers as the black line was getting wider." The strange formation appeared on the horizon for 45 minutes. "It was coming closer all the time. When I first looked, it looked like a line. The next time, it was getting closer and looked like a huge wave breaking out there." Many of the 50 to 100 fishermen in the surf and at the nearby Waimakariri River mouth saw a similar threat, loaded their gear and "bolted" for fear of being engulfed by a massive wave. Police, who had initially believed the tsunami alert was a hoax, changed their minds after several fishermen reported seeing the phenomenon. Civil Defence regional emergency management said it was likely to be an optical illusion caused by reflections off the sea and clouds in calm conditions. Another fisherman said he had NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT IN 25 YEARS of fishing at the beach. He had seen optical illusions there before in similar conditions, but these were "definitely waves", possibly caused by an undersea landslip. "A lot of us saw them, these breaking waves way out to sea. Then they calmed down. The waves weren't hitting shore. They were three to four to five miles out and they weren't coming right in. It was honestly quite frightening." Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management said there was no system yet invented that could warn of a tsunami that might be only minutes away. "The big danger is if a big earthquake hits just off the coast. If you are on the coast and you feel a big quake and it is difficult to stand or you see the sea showing odd behaviour, then it is time to move." The false alarm was encouraging in that it showed people were aware of the risk from a tsunami.

AUSTRALIA - FREAK WEATHER inflicts devastating damage on Ningaloo’s coral. Nearly half the coral along a stretch of coast at Coral Bay has been killed by a FREAK COMBINATION of weather and tides, sparking warnings from scientists that it could take 20 years to recover. Coral in a 1.2sqkm area of popular snorkelling beach Bills Bay was hit by the bleaching event in April when light winds and a low swell trapped spawn in the bay during the breeding season, starving coral of oxygen. A similar event occurred in the area in 1989, with only one of 17 monitored sites since making a full recovery. The natural phenomenon is “QUITE RARE” because most coral bleaching is the result of elevated ocean temperatures.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression HIGOS was 205 nmi WSW of Hong Kong.
Tropical storm MARIE was 726 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm NORBERT was 163 nmi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Laura hit the west of Britain after becoming caught up in the high-altitude jet stream, which dragged the weather system eastwards. Torrential downpours hit South Lakeland Friday, causing disruptive localised flooding. The stormy conditions, with gale force winds, were caused as the remains of Laura, in the form of hot, humid tropical air, clashed with the cold air over the Atlantic.

Haitian officials say 793 people were killed in four major storms which devastated the country in August and September.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Tristar Food, Jersey City, NJ is initiating a nationwide recall of all of their 100 ml plastic bottle packages of Blue Cat Flavor Drink (Lanmao) because it may be contaminated with Melamine.
Recalled - Mr. Brown 3-In-1 and and 2-In-1 Powdered Packets in Bag Coffee Mixes Due To Health Risk. The recall was initiated after the manufacturer notified Sunny Maid that these 3-in-1 and 2-in-1 Coffee Mix products may contain melamine.

Friday, October 3, 2008 -

“If the American People ever allow private banks [the Federal Reserve] to control the issue of their currency...
the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property
until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.”
Thomas Jefferson

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
10/2/08 -
5.8 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 TONGA
5.0 VANUATU
10/01/08 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 MAULE, CHILE
5.7 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
NEW ZEALAND - A trick of the light created havoc on a New Zealand beach today when people saw what they thought was a tsunami rushing towards them. A man who alerted beachgoers was called a hoaxer and taken in for questioning over the incident at Kairaki beach north of Christchurch but police later said he was not the only one fooled. The man convinced people that a tsunami was coming, creating havoc as people tried to leave the area. Police decided the man's concerns were genuine and the apparent sighting was confirmed by fishermen in the area. "With the weather as it is at the moment, combined with sea fog and refraction of light at long distances, this impression was gained by many people." There were no tsunami warnings in place.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical Storm Marie is moving westward in the Pacific on a path that's taking it farther away from Mexico's coast.

Hurricane forecasters with Colorado State University are predicting an above-average October in the Atlantic.

Tropical storm Higos, the 17th this year, will drop heavy rain on parts of south China's Guangdong and Hainan provinces over the weekend.

After crossing Bicol, Tropical Storm “Pablo” [Higos] weakened into a depression Wednesday but spawned torrents of rain over Metro Manila in the Philippines.

Four typhoons in four consecutive weekends? It's a reality for residents of the island of Taiwan, which has been lashed by typhoons all month. Four consecutive storms are certainly well above average even for typhoon-prone Taiwan. A shift in storm tracks along with increased tropical activity are the primary causes behind the upward tick in typhoon strikes this season on Taiwan.

HAITI - flooding from four successive storms continues to impact much of Haiti. "With the entire country affected by the flooding, this emergency is far from being over. With so many families already hungry from the spike in global food prices, we must continue to galvanize support for the needs of people in Haiti."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ALGERIA - Floods have killed at least 29 people in the Algerian oasis town of Ghardaia in the Sahara. 48 people were injured and one person has gone missing since heavy rains began on Tuesday. Between 300 and 600 homes have been inundated in the town of about 100,000 people. Gas and electricity have been cut and food supplies have been flooded and probably rendered useless.

FOOD SUPPLIES-
AUSTRALIA - RECORD TEMPERATURES across Victoria's north last weekend laid waste to the state's wheat crops. Temperatures as high as 34 celsius at Swan Hill, in the state's north, and strong winds, destroyed cropping areas across the Mallee, Wimmera and north-east, ending hopes that farmers could recover from the drought this year. The northern irrigation districts remain on historically low September water allocations of between zero and six per cent. A combination of high temperatures and close to no rainfall has meant that hundreds of farmers have now reached the point of no return. "Low irrigation allocations will make it increasingly difficult for the Victorian horticulture and dairy industries to continue production over the summer months. The chips are down."

India received near-normal monsoon rains this season, improving prospects for record harvests of crops.

U.S. - Farmers in the Dakotas are wrapping up one of the best spring wheat and winter wheat harvests in more than a decade.

KENTUCKY - the Pulaski County beef producers have never seen anything like the droughts of '07 and '08. “It’s real bad. It's the worst I've ever seen it.” Case in point...normally cattle would have plenty of pasture grass to eat until winter. Now they're munching on hay, that's usually reserved for the winter months. “It means it's going to be a long winter.Could be hard pressed to find hay." A lot of farmers are now going on nearly a month without significant rainfall. There's been only one cutting of hay, not enough to get cattle through the winter. And with the economy in a serious tailspin, some don't know what they're going to do. “Increasing fuel costs, fertilizer, and feed costs. It's changing the way agriculture is.”

SPACE WEATHER-
The Sun has gone quiet, very quiet. The solar wind – which is comprised of electrically charged particles streaming out from the star – is WEAKER THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE SCIENTISTS BEGAN ACCURATE OBSERVATIONS IN THE 1950s, and the number of sunspots in 2008 may be THE LOWEST SINCE THE 19TH CENTURY. This year’s solar silence has surprised space physicists, who were expecting the Sun to have moved away from the minimum point of the 11-year solar cycle by now. “To see such a significant and consistent long-term reduction in the solar wind output is really remarkable.” Some climatologists say that, over a period of decades, a quieter Sun means a cooler Earth, although the relationship between solar activity and climate is particularly controversial. When the Sun is very quiet, the amount of energy that reaches Earth is only 0.1 per cent less than when it is very active – a change too small to produce significant global cooling on its own. One certain effect of a quiet Sun is that more high-energy cosmic rays from elsewhere in the universe can beat their way through the weakened solar wind and reach Earth. Another effect of reduced solar activity is a cooling and thinning of the upper atmosphere. The majority of astronomers expect solar activity to pick up soon, leading to the next maximum around 2012. There is no agreement, however, on how disturbed the Sun will be during the next maximum. Some scientists say that, despite the low starting point, the Sun could still build up to an exceptionally intense maximum over the next four years. A sudden solar superstorm would cause tens of billions of dollars of damage to communications and navigational satellites and cause continent-wide electrical blackouts that might last for weeks.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008 -

If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars.
J. Paul Getty

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/30/08 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
Invisibility cloaks can hide you from a tsunami, too - Making things invisible is a pretty neat trick. In 2006, a team of scientists bent rays of light around a copper ring (which was still visible, thanks to pesky visible light). Now researchers say they are getting close to bending visible light, too, but along the way they've uncovered a rather odd real-world application for the technology: protecting against the power of the sea. The prototype is 10 centimeters across. Developed in France, the pillars placed along the protective ring form a static maze of sorts that water won't fully penetrate. As water enters the concentric circles of pillars, it'll interact in such a way that the force drives the liquid around in a whirlpool-like motion, moving around the interior of the ring faster and faster — rather than through it. Water will be trapped inside and thrown out — mostly to the south — and will pass by whatever is in the center as if it wasn't there. Depending on the size of the barrier ring employed, a system such as this could protect anything from nature's wrath, such as offshore oil rigs. Larger areas needing protection, such as islands and coastlines, would take a far larger network — maybe even several artificial barrier islands employing the technology. A barrier of the rings might even be able to disrupt powerful ocean swells, such as tsunamis, though protecting an island would take a far bigger ring. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 14E was 512 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Tropical storm LAURA was 680 nmi E of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Tropical storm HIGOS was 56 nmi ESE of Manila, Philippines.
Tropical storm JANGMI was 141 nmi SW of Kagoshima, Japan.

Tropical storm Laura is forecast to strike Scotland at about 04:00 GMT on 5 October. The speed and the strength of the wind are projected to be extremely high. According to officials at the National Hurricane Center, Laura is an “extremely dangerous” storm.

Japan issued warnings for potentially damaging rains and flooding as Tropical Storm Jangmi headed across the East China Sea. More than 500000 people have been ordered to leave China's coastal areas.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala slammed into central Vietnam on Tuesday, killing three people and leaving 10 others missing. The storm arrived as people in northern Vietnam were still cleaning up following Typhoon Hagupit, which killed 41 people last week. 10,000 people in coastal villages had earlier been evacuated. However, some began returning to their homes Tuesday afternoon as the storm moved into Laos and rains stopped. Rescue workers in northern Son La province are still struggling to reach isolated villages devastated by floods triggered by Typhoon Hagupit.

Nearly 2,000 people were stranded on Tuesday at a seaport in the Philippines as Tropical Storm Higos pummelled the country's east coast with heavy rain.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Floods in Thailand have killed 23 people and sickened more than 230,000 over the past two weeks.

MEXICO - Mexican officials have evacuated 7,500 people and are keeping oil wells shut in Veracruz due to severe flooding from heavy rains along Mexico's Gulf coast. Large sections of the towns of Minatitlan and Hidalgotitlan are under 10 feet (3 meters) of water.

COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - Variable weather in September has produced mixed pollination results for stonefruit growers in Marlborough. Recent rain has reduced pollination of apricot, nectarine and peach crops. "We have been growing stone fruit since 1978 and it has to be THE MOST BIZARRE PERIOD OF WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN." The prolonged cold and wet spell is UNUSUAL. "Bees require some warmth and not rain to work." Cherry growers around the district appear to have avoided damage because of their later flowering. Flowering lasted for about three weeks and the bees had about three days to pollinate flowers once they blossomed. Cherry trees were blossoming a little later than last year because of the cold weather. "The problem is that when we have had good days it has been windy."

Tuesday, September 30, 2008 -

I respect faith, but doubt is what gets you an education.
Wilson Mizner

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/29/08 -
5.0 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
7.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm JANGMI was 236 nmi NNE of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm MEKKHALA was 115 nmi NW of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm TWENTYONE was 174 nmi E of Cebu City, Philippines.
SubTropical storm LAURA was 758 nmi ESE of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm Kyle's remnants were working their way through eastern Canada on Monday, as another cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean was keeping forecasters busy: Laura. Laura formed as a sub-tropical storm, that is, outside of the tropics, during the early morning hours on Sept. 29. The tropics range from the equator to 30 degrees north latitude. Specifically, Laura formed at Latitude 37.2 north. At 11:00 a.m. EDT, Sept. 29, Tropical Storm Laura's maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph and some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so before Laura moves over colder waters.Laura is at the same latitude in the Atlantic as the state of Virginia, and at a longitude directly south of Greenland, out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Current computer models predict that Laura will take a right turn by the end of the week and head toward the United Kingdom.

South China's Hainan Province is bracing for tropical storm Mekkhala, which is expected to land in the island today.

TAIWAN - 244 locations in eight counties may be at high risk of landslides over the next few days amid heavy rain brought by Typhoon Jangmi.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Mudslides and flood threaten to wipe out Beichuan - a large part of the county is now buried under mudslides caused by UNPREDCEDENTED downpour since last Wednesday. The ongoing mudslides and an anticipated flood could do what the Sichuan earthquake couldn't - wipe out Beichuan from the face of the earth. "If heavy rains and mudslides continue, Beichuan may soon disappear as the entire county may be buried or flooded." Sitting on a cleft in the mountains, the ruins of the county flattened by the May 12 earthquake had originally been planned to be preserved as a memorial to more than 10,000 people who died there. Beichuan, which is traversed by the Jianjiang River, consists of an old town in the southwest and a new town in the northeast. Ever since the earthquake struck, the county has been evacuated and made off-limits. Half of the old town has already been buried by mudslides. Only two roofs could be seen in the 1 sq km area. In some places, the mud is even more than 40 m deep. As if the mudslides were not enough, there's a looming threat of floods as the mudslides from mountains have blocked the upper reaches of the river. "The best solution now would be to build a dam on the bank of the Jianjiang River in the new town." But it is almost impossible to do so in such a short time, more so because it is dangerous to enter the area as rains continue to lash the county.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin - Though above normal for annual precipitation benchmarks, the region is parched. Regionwide, it’s been a wild ride. Twelve months. Two hundred-year storms. One drought. In between, one of the snowiest winters on record. As climate trends generally are measured over three-decade spans, 12 months is hardly enough time to draw conclusions. But the wacky weather of the past year might be part of a shift toward more extremes. Climate models predict the light, steady rains common in spring and fall will give way to a summer-like pattern of dry periods punctuated by downpours. “It’s certainly too short to say much, but it is fitting with the trend we’ve observed lately.” Rainfall records for Madison, Wisconsin since 1940 show a dramatic increase in the occurrence of 2- and 3-inch rains. The past 8 years have seen eight 3-inch, one-day rainfalls, compared with nine in the previous 60 years. The pattern is similar for 2-inch rainfalls, and 1-inch events show a steady increase. That is what the future might hold for the area: more floods and more droughts. Area residents were stunned on the weekend of Aug. 18 and 19, 2007, when a storm system parked over the area, dumping massive amounts of rain on a wide area of southeastern Minnesota, western Wisconsin and Iowa. Tame trout streams turned into raging rivers, washing away vehicles, roads and houses, and killing seven people. The Minnesota Climatology Working Group estimated a storm of that magnitude likely would occur only once every 2,000 years. Ten months later, most of the region experienced another 100-year storm event. This time, the flooding was worse east of the Mississippi River. All that snow and rain put the area ahead of normal precipitation, but only on paper. There’s been plenty of rain, just not when it’s needed. Since mid-July, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin are 3 to 7 inches below normal rainfall and considered under moderate drought conditions. Weather in the area generally depends on events on the other side of the globe. Periods of rain and drought are typical, depending on airflow patterns in the upper atmosphere. When storm activity is centered in the western Pacific and Indian oceans, as it has been since mid-summer, the jet stream tends to dip lower, infusing the state with cool, dry air from Canada. Last fall and winter, the storm activity was in the central Pacific, which meant the North American airflow tended to come from the southwest, bringing more moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. Predicting when and how those patterns change is another matter. “We are in a situation where we have quite a bit of variability. We just don’t know which way it’s going to go.” Other trends don’t follow the expected pattern. Take heat waves: the number of 90-degree or hotter days in Madison has gone down over the past 60 years. This summer, La Crosse has had five; the average is 20.

Summer 2008 in Southern California goes down in the books as cooler than normal. The thermometer in downtown Los Angeles topped 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius) just once in July, August and the first two-thirds of September. But don't expect this summer's respite from the usual blistering heat to continue in the years to come, cautions a group of NASA and university scientists: The long-term forecast calls for increased numbers of scorching days and longer, more frequent heat waves. The number of extreme heat days (above 90 degrees Fahrenheit or 32.2 degrees Celsius in downtown Los Angeles) has increased sharply over the past century. A century ago, the region averaged about two such days a year; today the average is more than 25. In addition, the duration of heat waves (two or more extreme heat days in a row) has also soared, from two-day events a century ago to one- to two-week events today. "We found an astonishing trend – a dramatic increase in the number of heat waves per year."

Monday, September 29, 2008 -

You see things; and you say, 'Why?'
But I dream things that never were; and I say, "Why not?"
George Bernard Shaw

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/28/08 -
5.5 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
5.2 BANDA SEA
9/27/08 -
6.1 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.6 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
9/26/08 -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.6 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN

BANGLADESH - Tangail experienced a mild tremor Friday morning. "The epicentre of the minor jolt was located at Mirzapur in Tangail, 64 km northwest of Dhaka city." The quake, occurring at 10am, measured 3.3 on the Richter scale. The same area had experienced at least 12 tremors during the preceding week, on Sept 20 and 21, which may have been caused by an activation of the Madhupur fault. Describing such tremors as 'foreshocks', a geology professor said: "The same area has been rocked on numerous occasions recently, which may foretell of a larger quake in the near future."

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - After erupting for over a month this summer, Okmok has calmed down enough for volcanologists to explore the changes within the 5-mile wide caldera. "What used to be a lush green terrace is now just a grey brown wasteland of ash and mud and sand. There isn't anything green inside the caldera." Some new features include a dozen or more smaller craters filled with water and one new large lake. "Volcanologically what's so fascinating is there's a completely new ash cone that's been built up on the north side of cone B. It's perhaps as high as 800 feet in vertical elevation. So it represents a huge accumulation of debris that erupted out of the ground that happened between July 12 and August 19." The eruption involved a lot of water. "We know that the caldera floor has always been a kind of soupy place with very shallow ground water so we think that as the magma was reaching the surface, water just kept flushing into the ground, creating massive explosions that pulverized the erupting lava so that it wasn't able to form any contiguous lava flows. It just got blown to bits. Very fine bits that make up this muddy ashy debris." Though ash covered the island and the local cattle ranch during the 38 day eruption, the cows seem to be doing fine. "They're running around. The tundra is green...there may not be as much grass feed this winter but they don't seem to be showing any ill effects right now. Nor do the reindeer running around." The only current danger from the volcano involves the new ash dams that are blocking the creek that flows from the caldera. They could break and cause flooding.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 20W was 180 nmi E of Da Nang, Vietnam.
Tropical storm JANGMI was 32 nmi WNW of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical storm KYLE was 99 nmi W of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Subtropical storm LAURA has formed over the central North Atlantic Ocean.

SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA has formed over the central North Atlantic Ocean about 840 miles west of the westernmost Azores Islands. A gradual turn toward the northwest and north accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Laura could transition into a tropical cyclone later today and possibly become a hurricane by Tuesday. Laura is not forecast to affect any land areas and the system is only a threat to shipping interests over the far North Atlantic ocean.

Hurricane Kyle has made a RARE landfall in eastern Canada. It struck near Yarmouth on the southern tip of Nova Scotia province, before being downgraded to a tropical storm. There are no reports of damages. Kyle is now moving over the Bay of Fundy towards New Brunswick province. On Saturday, the neighbouring US state of Maine issued its FIRST HURRICANE WATCH FOR 17 YEARS. Two to 4 inches of rain had already fallen along some coastal areas in Maine by midday Saturday and the storm was expected to deliver an additional 2 to 4 inches. It is the 11th named storm of the season. Five years ago Hurricane Juan killed two people and caused extensive damage in Canada's Atlantic provinces.

Typhoon Jangmi lashed Taiwan with torrential rains and powerful winds on Sunday, causing widespread flooding. China's southern region was bracing for their second typhoon in a week and the eastern China provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang issued warnings on Sunday as the typhoon approached.

MYANMAR - An unidentified freshwater snail has left scores of paddy farmers in southern Myanmar reeling. In the wake of Cyclone Nargis - which left nearly 140,000 people dead or missing in May - farmers cite an increase in the invasive species. Experts believe the snails were washed up by the sea’s tidal surge when it submerged more than 783,000ha of rice paddy fields or 63 percent of paddy land in the affected areas. The snails devastate rice fields by feeding on the base of paddy seedlings, as well as on plant leaves and stems and are capable of consuming the young plants overnight. Lacking government or international assistance to deal with the menace, many farmers resorted to pesticide, only to have it kill everything else at the same time, including fish. "We don't know the name of it or its active ingredients, but it really kills the crabs though it cannot kill the snails."

Floods triggered by Typhoon Hagupit have now claimed at least 41 lives in northern Vietnam, as rescuers continue to search for five people reported missing. Floods swept away thousands of homes and inundated farmland. In addition, the death toll from Typhoon Hagupit in the Philippines rose to eight with hopes fading for 13 gold miners still trapped in a flooded tunnel.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEPAL - Incessant rainfall in the mid-western and far-western regions of Nepal this week has caused flooding and landslides in eight regions.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
NEW ZEALAND - Snow dump comes as a surprise - High winds and a sudden snowstorm disrupted Queenstown on Saturday, closing the Lindis Pass, the airport, the gondola and even the skifields. The weather is not typical for the end of September and took even the most seasoned Queenstown farmers by surprise. In Queenstown itself, 20 millimetres of rain fell in three hours. Queenstown's weather expert says no one forecast this much snow and to get 10 centimetres is REALLY UNUSUAL for September.

FLORIDA - Thursday's cool temperatures BROKE A 30-YEAR-OLD RECORD in Gainesville. The Thursday morning 55-degree temperature dropped below the 1967 record by one degree. The low temperatures were caused by an area of low pressure that passed by this week. The cool air is not typical until late October. With the record lows in the mid to upper 50s it was possible for more records to be broken this weekend. The average temperature for this time of the year is around 65-degrees for the low and 85-degrees for the high.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

EUROPE is warming faster than the world average and governments need to invest to adapt to a changing climate set to turn the Mediterranean region arid and the north ever wetter, a study shows. "Annual precipitation changes are worsening differences between a wet northern part of Europe and a dry south." Europe's mountains, coasts, the Mediterranean and the Arctic are most at risk from global warming. Among other impacts, seas are rising in a threat to coasts, some fish stocks have moved 1000km north in the past 40 years - pushing cod not caught by trawlers away from the North Sea - and two-thirds of Alpine glaciers have vanished since 1850. A few in Europe are getting benefits, such as northern farmers with longer growing seasons for crops. Seas are likely to rise by 18 to 59cms by 2100, and could keep rising for centuries if ice sheets of Greenland or Antarctica thaw. In Europe, 4 million people and $2.9 billion in assets would be at risk from flooding from higher seas by 2100, from the Baltic states to Greece.

SPACE WEATHER-
For the first time in months, a significant sunspot emerged on the sun. It was a fast-growing active region with two dark cores, each larger than Earth. The magnetic polarity of the sunspot identified it as a member of new Sunspot Cycle 24. Because the year 2008 has brought so many blank suns, some observers have wondered if we are ever going to climb out of the ongoing deep solar minimum. The new sunspot is an encouraging sign that the 11-year solar cycle is indeed progressing, albeit slowly.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
QFCO, Inc. is recalling White Rabbit Candy because it may be contaminated with Melamine. Product was distributed to the states of CA, GA, HI, IL, MN, NY, OR, TX, WA.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is alerting consumers that seven Mr. Brown instant coffee and milk tea products manufactured in China are being recalled by the King Car Food Industrial Co. Ltd. due to possible contamination with melamine.

Health fears are increasing worldwide over the safety of Chinese dairy exports.

As food-safety problems continue to rock the United States, resulting in massive recalls, illness and even death, the federal Food and Drug Administration remains underfunded and understaffed.

Friday, September 26, 2008 -

He felt that his whole life was some kind of dream and he sometimes wondered
whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.
Douglas Adams

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/25/08 -
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.9 WESTERN XIZANG

CHINA - Sichuan Province - It has been raining incessantly; very unseasonal weather for this time of the year. According to local wisdom, the climate has changed because of the massive earthquake that rocked this region in early May. Whatever the cause, it is clear that since the earthquake, people here have yet to see warm and sunny days and they no longer have clean water in their homes. Temporary shelters block the rain but not the wind. For three months, Emergency Relief Units and their hardworking personnel have provided people in the surrounding villages and camps with emergency water and sanitation and a direct humanitarian support that helped give them the hope and confidence that they could, one day, rebuild their lives. But worry is etched deeply on their faces as they grapple with the fact that a harsh winter is fast descending on them.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Typhoon JANGMI was 440 nmi ENE of Manila, Philippines.
Tropical storm KYLE was 420 nmi SW of Hamilton, Bermuda. [Forecasts expect it to become a hurricane in about a day. Kyle should weaken after it moves into cold water, but it may still be of hurricane strength when the center reaches New England or the Canadian Maritimes.]

U.S. East Coast - Tendrils of a massive storm system began whipping the Washington region with sharp winds and light rain yesterday as the region's coastal towns braced for possible tidal flooding and downed trees and power lines. The storm, swirling a few miles off the coast of North Carolina, was expected to make landfall last night and begin its slow march up to the D.C. region. But the drizzle and winds that came before it had already done some damage. Officials in the tourist town of North Beach in Calvert County said they had lost eight feet of their 25-foot beach by 3 p.m. to erosion from choppy waves. "This kind of storm, the direction it's coming in, is even worse than a hurricane for us. We're probably going to lose a few more feet before this is all over." The largest threat appears to be a surge of water from a combination of high tide and gusty winds, which is expected to push water from the Chesapeake Bay into coastal communities. Tides are forecast to run as much as two feet above normal. The worst of the storm was expected to arrive late last night and early this morning. Meteorologists predict that the storm will last into Saturday morning. Gusts up to 45 mph are expected along the Chesapeake Bay, with less powerful winds inland.

FLORIDA - A four-block section of A1A was closed to traffic Thursday night after high waves pounded the shoreline and reached the road. Chunks of seaweed even made it to the street, jamming some flood drains. Earlier in the day Fort Lauderdale officials had to deal with moving two lifeguard towers in danger of being washed away. But first, they had to get around the federally protected sea turtle eggs nearby. The problem started when the morning's high tide dislodged the towers north of Sunrise Boulevard. "The city has to get a bulldozer on the beach to take the towers off, but doing so runs the risk of damaging or destroying the sea turtle nests." Beaches in Broward and Palm Beach counties are being hit with crashing waves today. The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook for South Florida that includes warnings of rip currents and strong swells. Waves were expected to be highest in Palm Beach County, with swells of five to eight feet, although UNUSUALLY high tides have been reported in Hollywood and Hallandale Beach. National Weather Service meteorologists blamed the swells hitting the South Florida coast on two factors: a high pressure system in the Atlantic butting against a low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas. "The difference is causing strong northerly winds and creating those swells." Forecasters are monitoring that low-pressure system to determine whether it may develop into a subtropical storm. Another low-pressure system [which has intensified into Tropical storm Kyle] has been monitored for the last couple of days in and north of the Caribbean but was not a factor in Thursday morning's tides and waves.

This morning typhoon "Ofel" (Jangmi) gained more strength and continued to move toward extreme northern Luzon in the Philippines.

Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Hagupit will meanwhile ease in Vietnam, but the storm will continue to bring major downpours to southern China where floods will remain a threat. Tropical moisture from the storm will likely fuel heavy rain and thunderstorms across Southeast Asia.
A strong low pressure system is expected to bring light to moderate rain with some localized heavy showers in southeast Russia, including the Kamchatka peninsula, Sakhalin Island and the Kurils. An associated cold front is forecast to extend south, triggering heavy rain across Japan today.
Floods triggered by typhoon Hagupit in northern Vietnam have killed 16 people while three others are missing. About 11,000 houses have been flooded or damaged, while 15,000 hectares of crops have been damaged.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Torrential rain leaves 16 dead, 48 missing in China's quake zone. Rainstorms began pounding Mianyang on Monday, a hard-hit area during the devastating quake in May that left 87,000 people dead or missing.

Thursday, September 25, 2008 -

If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you.
This is the principal difference between a dog and a man.
Mark Twain

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/24/08 -
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.3 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
6.3 OFF COAST OF COLIMA, MEXICO
9/23/08 -
5.1 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - The state might need to help some farmers move away from Kilauea volcano so they can escape the effects of vog and stay in business. The state helped Hilo farmers move to safer ground after the 1946 and 1960 tsunamis. Big Islanders have long lived with vog, which is formed when sulfur dioxide from Kilauea mixes with sunlight and dust particles. But the volume of vog in the air above many communities has jumped dramatically since March, when Kilauea started emitting more than double the amount of sulfur dioxide it had been spewing before. Kilauea continues to spew nearly 3 thousands tons of ash and deadly sulfur dioxide gas every day. Protea and other flower crops have been particularly vulnerable to the effects of vog, with some farms losing all their plants. (photo / video)
Officials from the Big Island reported to state lawmakers that they suggest residents prepare "safe rooms" regarding the ongoing eruption of dangerous gases from Kilauea Volcano. "We have to do something on an emergency basis to provide for the health and safety of the people." The noxious gasses from the volcano can settle on a community too fast and it is not practical for a whole community to evacuate, Civil Defense officials said. "So, what we're advising the community is be prepared for an announcement to come out and stay indoors, minimize your outdoor activity, but basically shelter in place in your own residence." Department of Education officials said they will be able to set up safe rooms in all the schools. "We were able to come up $34,000 or $38,000 to purchase enough air purifiers for every public school on the Big Island and from there we developed what we call safe zones." Officials admit there is no easy answer or fail-safe plan for what to do when the gas from Kilauea threatens people and agriculture on the Big Island.

WASHINGTON - A new formation inside the Mount St. Helens crater is fascinating both scientists and tourists. It has also a strange nickname – the donut. The mountain's second lava dome pushed up and through the original glacier. As it grew, it pushed the split glacier forward toward the crater's mouth until it finally rejoined – completing a circle of ice on the crater floor. In the lower 48 states, this is one of the few glaciers that's actually advancing. All the other glaciers in the Cascades are retreating." The question for scientists is whether the glacier will continue pushing forward – perhaps onto the valley floor itself. And now that the lava dome eruption has stopped, scientists wonder if the glacier's growth will slow down or stop too. (photos)

JAPAN - Threat of eruption prompts relocation of rare birds from volcanic island - A special Ministry of the Environment council has decided to move 15 short-tailed albatross chicks from the birds' breeding grounds on Torishima, one of the Izu Islands, to Mukojima in the Ogasawara Islands. The albatrosses' current breeding grounds were improved in 1993, after fears the bird would become extinct, and the population has since risen to around 2,140. However, since the island is an active volcano, new facilities have been prepared on Mukojima, with the first 10 albatross chicks moved there in February this year. Another 15 birds will be moved in February. The chicks successfully left their nests in May, and electronic tagging revealed that they migrated to the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands along with their wild brethren.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm HAGUPIT was 138 nmi ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam.
Typhoon JANGMI was 566 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
A well-defined extratropical low pressure system near the South Carolina-North Carolina border could develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Regardless of whether this development happens or not, strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents will continue along portions of the SE and Mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal regions during the next couple of days.
Another low pressure system which has a high chance of developing into a tropical storm is near the Turks & Caicos Islands and is moving northward.

Powerful typhoon Hagupit has ploughed into a densely populated area of south China, killing three people and triggering a "ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY STORM TIDE" in several cities. Authorities evacuated more than 100,000 people before Hagupit made landfall in far south China around dawn. But three still lost their lives in the crowded, heavily commercial province of Guangdong, with another two missing. The storm killed at least eight people in the Philippines earlier in the week. Streets were deserted and shops and businesses shuttered as the storm uprooted trees and brought down billboards in cities across Guangdong. The state news agency Xinhua described typhoon Hagupit as "THE WORST TO HIT GUANGDONG IN MORE THAN A DECADE". High winds destroyed a petrol station along the Zhanjiang section of State Highway 325 and a factory under construction. After the worst of the weather, authorities also scrambled to bolster dams and dyke walls. Hagupit triggered a once-in-a-century storm tide - a high flood period in which water levels can rise to more than 5m above the normal tide - in several coastal cities including Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Yangjiang. Hagupit whipped past Hong Kong overnight, uprooting trees and causing flash floods in low-lying areas including Lantau island where the city's airport is located, with dozens of people injured across the territory. Hagupit is now headed into north Vietnam.
Another storm is brewing to the east of the Philippines. The storm, named "Jangmi", was expected to strengthen and head west towards China, following a similar path to Hagupit.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
INDIA - Food riots break out as flood victims go hungry - Aid workers in eastern India struggled to provide food to tens of thousands of flood victims after riots broke out yesterday. In Orissa state, people are still stranded on embankments and roads after large areas were flooded when authorities opened the sluice gates of a dam on the Mahanadi river after heavy rains last week. Villagers complained they were not getting relief supplies. Hungry victims beat up officials, blocked roads and looted relief materials. More than 100,000 people were still marooned and 19 more deaths were reported yesterday, taking the death toll from floods in the eastern state to 48 in the past week. At least 20 more deaths were also reported in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh yesterday, raising the overall toll across India to at least 239 in the past five days. Rising rivers have burst their banks and swamped vast areas of farmland.
As the flood unleashed by the Mahanadi enters into its sixth day of devastating Orissa, nearly two-thirds of the state is inundated. Over 40 per cent of the landmass, the Mahanadi basin where over a dozen tributaries flow, has turned into a waterworld. Water everywhere, the horizon brimming — an odd coconut tree jutting out of the undulating brown sheet at the rim. The number of the flood victims is estimated to be in the region of 10 million, of which 4 million are badly affected. About 550,000 are still marooned and 300,000 rescued over the past four days. The death toll mounts as days pass. Two days ago thousands from the Puri district moved on to the highway between Bhubaneswar and Puri — the only firm ground below their feet. People have taken shelter even in treetops, as in the Bayalis Mauja area in Cuttack district.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
A global search begins for food crops carrying traits that are able to withstand future changes to the climate.

SPACE WEATHER-
The solar wind - the stream of charged particles billowing away from the Sun - is at ITS WEAKEST FOR 50 YEARS. Scientists expect the reduced output to have effects right across the Solar System. The solar wind, which originates in the Sun's hot outer atmosphere known as the corona, gusts and calms with the star's familiar 11-year cycle of activity (but also over its less well known longer cycles, too). Calmer wind conditions would be expected to prevail right now, but data indicates circumstances UNPRECEDENTED IN RECENT TIMES. "This is a whole Sun phenomenon. The entire Sun is blowing significantly less hard - about 20-25% less hard - than it was during the last solar minimum 10-15 years ago. That's a very significant change. In fact, the solar wind we're seeing now is blowing the least hard we've see it for a prolonged time, since the start of those observations in the 1960s at the start of the space age." In addition to being calmer, the wind is 13% cooler. However, judging from Sun activity data collected by non-satellite methods over the past 200 years, the current behaviour is thought to be well within the long-term norm.

HEALTH THREATS -
More nations pull tainted Chinese food - Australia, New Zealand and India have joined a growing list of countries pulling contaminated Chinese food products - everything from candy to biscuits - from store shelves.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 -

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves,
but wiser people so full of doubts.
Bertrand Russell

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/22/08 -
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 NEAR SOUTH COAST OF MYANMAR
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon HAGUPIT was 217 nmi SE of Hong Kong.

A tropical disturbance dumped up to 20 inches of rain on Puerto Rico, killing four people and flooding scores of homes, businesses and roads. Up to 12 inches more rain were expected and flash flood warnings were posted across the island. Schools and many businesses were closed and officials urged people to stay inside. "We are expecting it to continue raining throughout the island and anticipate up to 12 inches in the southeast." The weather system has the potential to develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday as it moves northwest away from Puerto Rico. If the scattered mass of thunderstorms becomes well organized with winds of 39 miles per hour (63 km per hour), it would become Tropical Storm Kyle. Some anticipated the latest tropical weather system would hit the Carolinas or the northeast U.S. coast, while other models kept it over the open seas. It was not expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where U.S. oil and gas facilities were still recovering from Hurricane Ike.

VIETNAM is on alert regarding tropical storm Hagupit after the Meteorological Forecasting Centre reported a large area in the north-east of the East Sea was experiencing turbulent waters and gusts between 118-149 km per hour.

RUSSIA - A cyclone and a storm that hit the Sakhalin Island on Tuesday morning, have disrupted the Vanino-Kholmsk ferry service. Waves with a height of four to six metres developed in Tatar Strait where specialised ships ply. The sea weather forecast department of the Sakhalin meteorological service has reported that heavy storms will be raging around the island for at least 24 hours. In Sakhalin's north, a powerful wind with a velocity of up to 30 metres per second may bring about surge that may cause underflooding of shore facilities at the port of Moskalvo. Sakhalin's public utilities have been placed on high alert in view of the situation.

HEALTH THREATS -
Nearly 53,000 children in China are now known to have been made ill by contaminated milk powder.

Monday, September 22, 2008 -

I always keep a supply of alcohol handy in case I see a snake - which I also keep handy.
W. C. Fields

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/21/08 -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TONGA
9/20/08 -
5.4 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.2 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA
5.1 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.4 TAJIKISTAN
9/19/08 -
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TONGA REGION

The Wenchuan earthquake in China's Sichuan province in May killed 70,000, but Wenchuan had "never been considered high-risk compared to cities near other fault lines". After the Wenchuan earthquake, the earthquake risk in China is even higher because of tectonic shifting. The Indian Ocean earthquake near Sumatra that caused the 2004 tsunami was also in an "unexpected location". Sumatra has accounted for nearly a quarter of all earthquakes measuring 6.9 or greater in the world since the 2004 tsunami; before that Sumatra had accounted for only 2 percent of them in the previous 30 years. "We have a geological record that goes back 1,000 years. It shows the region being hit by major quakes every 200 to 300 years. The last cluster of powerful quakes happened about 200 years ago. We are entering a new cluster." So, earthquakes have been more frequent and they've been more serious, and it's likely that more are coming and they might happen in places we don't expect. (To imagine what it's like to live through an earthquake, listen to National Public Radio's report, recorded during the Wenchuan quake.)

VOLCANOES -
REUNION - A volcano on France's Indian Ocean island of Reunion started erupting on Sunday, forcing authorities to raise the alert for a possible emergency. "A light lava flow escaped from one crack located about mid-way on the slope of the crater" of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. "A small lake of lava formed at the bottom of the crater and at this stage does not appear to pose any danger." However, access to the volcanic site has been banned. The Volcano Observatory on the island registered a movement of lava and release of sulfur dioxyde-laden gas mid-afternoon on Sunday. The eruption is the first since the violent awakening in April 2007 which was dubbed the "eruption of the century." The volcano on Reunion is one of the most active in the world. It has become active on average about twice a year over the past few years. It does not pose a threat to the island's population since the eruptions can usually be predicted and take place in an uninhabited area. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon HAGUPIT was 193 nmi NNE of Baguio City, Philippines.

A cluster of wind and rain nearing the Dominican Republic was forecast to become a tropical depression today, threatening to batter neighboring storm-devastated Haiti and the rest of the waterlogged region with more punishing rains. The slow-moving weather system had been largely disorganized across the Atlantic in recent days but strengthened suddenly when it reached Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The storm was churning waves up to 10 feet (3 meters) high in southern Puerto Rico, and emergency officials in both the Dominican Republic and Haiti issued warnings for heavy rains. Haiti is still struggling to recover from three recent hurricanes and a tropical storm that killed 425 people and affected an estimated 850,000 residents. There are still sites that are inaccessible because of the previous floods. [Reports from Puerto Rico indicate that 10-20 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the island, producing flash floods and mudslides.]

Tropical storm Hagupit is forecast to strike the Philippines as a typhoon today. The northern Philippines can expect strong, damaging winds and heavy rain as the storm passes by. It is expected to make landfall in Hong Kong on Wednesday when it may have strengthened into a Category 3 typhoon.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sinlaku continued moving eastward on Sunday allowing strong winds over Japan to subside.
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Two will continue moving northwest over northern India on Sunday, with strong winds and heavy rains persisting. Monsoon rain will be heaviest along the eastern shoreline of the Bay of Bengal and will move into Thailand.

Why hadn't any typhoons hit Japan earlier this year? So far this year, 13 typhoons have been formed, with seven of those coming as close as 300 kilometers to the Japanese archipelago. However, none of them hit Japan. In normal years, approximately three typhoons approach Japan in August, but in the same month this year only one came close. This is because of the position of the huge Pacific High above the sea south of the Japanese archipelago. Typhoons are formed above the northwestern Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Typhoons move north as a result of the effect of the earth's rotation. Swept by the clockwise wind that blows out of the Pacific High, typhoons move around the high pressure system and approach Japan. In July this year, however, the center of the Pacific High was situated around western Japan, preventing typhoons from approaching the Japanese archipelago. In August, the Pacific High moved southward to cover areas near Okinawa, blocking the path of typhoons. In July, Typhoons No. 7 and No. 8 made direct hits on southern China instead. As a result, the amount of rain throughout July came to 326 millimeters in Fujian Province, 3.8 times the amount in normal years. In Japan, however, the total amount of rainfall was comparatively low even though the country was ravaged by guerrilla rains. Areas along the Pacific coast of western Japan saw THE SMALLEST AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR JULY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN at the Meteorological Agency. The full-scale typhoon season is soon approaching. In September, the autumn rain front is situated near Japan, and the wet air that blows out of typhoons into the front could make the front active, bringing heavy rain. Many of the powerful typhoons that caused huge damage to Japan, such as the Muroto Typhoon in 1934 and Ise Bay Typhoon in 1959, hit Japan in September.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
AUSTRALIA - Parts of the Snowy Mountains are reportedly covered in "dirty snow" after dust storms from the Riverina and lower west deposited topsoil as a massive storm system crossed New South Wales. Winds over 100 km/h tore roofs off buildings and knocked down trees. The severe weather is expected to move to the southeast of the state and affect the Illawarra, southern Sydney suburbs and Central Tablelands on Tuesday before easing later in the day.
A "mudstorm-like" combination of dust, heavy rain and wind combined to reduce visibility to as little as three metres in Hay. Storms with violent winds, hail and dust have battered far west NSW and are rolling eastward across NSW. Authorities have warned central Sydney will cop a gale-force battering later today.

INDIA - The recent UNUSUAL post-monsoon rain, which triggered heavy landslides and uprooted trees in Shimla, has BROKEN THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORD of 1962 when the town witnessed the maximum rain. Sunday, the town recorded 177.1 mm rain, exceeding the 158 mm recorded on September 21,1962.
A massive landslide in Shimla, the capital city of Himachal Pradesh, turned 18 shops owned by Tibetans into rubble.

THAILAND - At least 14 people have died in floods that have hit Thailand for more than a week, while widespread food shortages are predicted.

HEALTH THREATS -
Nearly 13,000 children in China are now in hospitals after drinking tainted Chinese milk powder.

Friday, September 19, 2008 -

Dreams that do come true can be as unsettling as those that don't.
Brett Butler

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/18/08 -
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA
6.0 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.4 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE

VOLCANOES -
CAMEROON - Mount Cameroon, the highest mountain of the country, is eroding and exposes the surrounding population to rock falls. Area residents are exposed to other natural disasters apart from the seismic activities, particularly volcanic eruptions. These people live on the slope of the mountain which leads directly to the town of Buea, capital of the South-West Province. The governor of the province plans to publish a decision prohibiting agricultural and pastoral activities as well as hunting and wood cutting on the belt of the mountain. The last seismic activities of Mount-Cameroon date back to ten years with an abundant lava flow. There were no human casualties, but it seriously damaged the ecosystem and devastated agricultural plantations. The lava from this volcanic eruption stopped at only a few metres from the facilities of the National Refinery Company, the single refinery in Cameroon.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm HAGUPIT was 578 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines.
Tropical storm SINLAKU was 134 nmi SW of Tokyo, Japan.

ANTIGUA & BARBUDA - Tropical wave brings UNUSUALLY high winds - The weather system that brought unnervingly high winds last night and yesterday morning was no more than a tropical wave, the Met Office said. The wave had been to the east of the Leeward Islands for a number of days and was expected to have arrived a lot sooner. It was, however, delayed by upper level winds. Once these were overcome, the system resumed its westerly movement and its north-most area displayed rapid development overnight. The Met Office recorded sustained winds of 36 miles per hour (mph) at the airport with gusts clocking in at about 52 mph. Tropical waves usually cause wind speeds of around 18 to 20 mph with gusts of around 36 mph. As such, they noted THERE WAS AN ABNORMALITY WITH THIS SYSTEM'S WINDS, though the actual cause of this remains unknown. In some areas, branches were pulled from trees and utility lines were affected thereby causing power outages. It is possible that the development was spurred on by the wave moving into an area between a trough to the west and a ridge to the east. This may have caused the air currents to undergo severe vertical motion which would have facilitated the development. In addition, Antigua and Barbuda was not the only country that saw heavy winds and thunderstorms. The island of Montserrat was also affected. The heavy clouds moved to the Windward Islands where the winds died down. The clouds that remained over Antigua and Barbuda after the wind subsided were nothing more than upper-level “layer clouds.”

The vulnerability throughout the Caribbean countries has increased dramatically with another 3 months left before the end of the hurricane season. Even a little rain can have serious consequences. The region has been affected since 15 August successively by tropical storm Fay, hurricanes "Gustav", "Hanna" and "Ike", that claimed more than 350 lives so far in the Caribbean, affecting more than 3.1 million persons and damaging more than 550,000 houses - while assessments are still on going.

JAPAN - Typhoon triggers heavy rain forecasts across Japan. Meteorological Agency officials warned of heavy rain today and Saturday as a typhoon moved east-northeast over the Pacific Ocean near Japan. Officials said there was a danger of the typhoon approaching the Kii Peninsula this evening, and warned of heavy rain along the Pacific Ocean side of Japan from Shikoku to the Kanto region. This morning, the typhoon had a central atmospheric pressure of 980 hectopascals, and registered a maximum wind velocity of 45 meters per second. Downpours triggered by the typhoon - the 13th this year - drenched Mie Prefecture with 90 millimeters of rain over a one-hour period. The southern Kinki region, Tokai region and Kanto Koshin regions can expect heavy rainfall of between 50 and 70 millimeters per hour, with the possibility of more than 80 millimeters of rain per hour in some areas. A hillside collapsed as a result of the typhoon in Nichinan, Miyazaki Prefecture, on Friday morning.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - A waterspout was photographed off the South Devon coast Thursday as a storm swept inland at the same time, bringing high winds and a downpour. “It was a long, thin formation coming out of the sky and when it was near the surface water was sucked up to meet it. It was a bit spooky, and on land in Brixham it suddenly went cold and dark for ten minutes. It was VERY UNUSUAL weather for this part of the world.” (photo)

INDIA - Heavy rains have lashed the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, THE WORST RAINS IN THE LAST FOUR DECADES. The district administration is gearing up for a flood situation in Lakhtar taluka of Surendranagar district. More than two dozens of villages are marooned in Surendranagar district alone. The administration has evacuated at least 3000 villagers to safer places.

Thursday, September 18, 2008 -

Doubt 'til thou canst doubt no more...doubt is thought and thought is life.
Systems which end doubt are devices for drugging thought.
Albert Guerard

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/17/08 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 STRAIT OF HORMUZ

INDIA - One infant dead, 437 houses damaged in quake - The earthquake measured 4.8 on the Richter scale and occurred at 3.17 am on Wednesday. The epicentre of the earthquake was at Kadoli village, 13.6 km to the south-east of Koyna dam. The tremors lasted for about 20 seconds, and were felt in several parts ofwestern Maharashtra. Around eight persons in four villages sustained minor injuries. Homes were damaged in 77 villages.

VOLCANOES -
NEW ZEALAND - Mt Ruapehu may be entering a new heating cycle. The volcanic alert remains at one but the mountain's gas output, lake temperature and volcanic tremor have all shown reversals of recent trends. The behaviour is typical for Mt Ruapehu and ongoing monitoring shows the period of lake cooling and lower gas flux is over. The crater lake temperature increased from 16degC in August to 22degC now. The temperature change was accompanied by some volcanic tremor and increased gas emissions. "Cyclic activity in the crater lake is very common at Ruapehu. Ruapehu remains an active volcano and future eruptions may occur without warning." The level one volcanic alert means there has been a departure from typical background surface activity and/or signs of unrest.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -
INDIA - heavy rain lashes for the third day - Thousands of people were shifted to safer places from low laying areas of costal districts in Orissa. Over 20,000 people have been evacuated from Orissa’s coastal districts and moved to safer places as a wind storm in the Bay of Bengal caused heavy rains and tidal waves in the region. Heavy to very heavy rain lashed all parts of Orissa over the last three days. UNPRECEDENTED rainstorm and squally wind lashed many parts of Orissa on Wednesday; surging sea water swept several coastal villages, prompting evacuation of a large number of people. Tidal waves entered about half-a-dozen villages in Talasari area of Bhograi block in Balasore district, and the saline embankment in Bahabalpur area was breached by the choppy sea. Sea water also inundated coastal villages of Mahakalpada and Rajnagar area of Kendrapara district. A large number of trees were uprooted under the impact of high-speed wind, blocking roads in several areas particularly in the coastal belt.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm SINLAKU was 59 nmi SE of Kagoshima, Japan.

Sinlaku - Japanese authorities warned of potential damage from landslides caused by flooding as Tropical Storm Sinlaku gained in power and approached the coast of the southwestern island of Kyushu. The weather agency raised its highest alert for coastal areas of southern Kyushu, warning more than 80 millimeters (3.2 inches) of rain an hour in some areas may trigger landslides on the mountainous island. Warnings were also issued for strong winds, high waves and a storm surge throughout Kyushu and islands to the south. More than 30 people were forced to evacuate their homes in Kagoshima prefecture due to flooding.

U.S. - Tens of thousands across the Midwest snapped up batteries, generators and coolers as they waited Wednesday for crews to restore power amid the soggy mess left behind by Hurricane Ike. Flood warnings remained in effect Wednesday across the region. As much as 10 inches of rain fell in Indiana, Illinois and Missouri after Ike hit Texas over the weekend. Hurricane-force wind blew in Ohio and Kentucky and a tornado in Arkansas damaged several buildings. Ohio's utilities reported at least 900,000 people still without power Wednesday. Some were expected to be in the dark until the weekend. The storms brought Ike's death toll to at least 49 in 11 states from the Gulf Coast to the upper Ohio Valley, with new reports continuing to surface.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Water pours over Rio Grande levee, into Texas town of Presidio - A levee broke across the Rio Grande in neighboring Ojinaga, Mexico, where homes and other buildings received up to 10 feet of water. Flood waters had risen to rooftops of homes and other buildings in some spots on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande. Officials in Presidio, a town of 5,000 people about 250 miles down river from El Paso, have been watching the Rio Grande for nearly two weeks. Heavy rains and water releases from the flood-swollen Luis Leon Reservoir in Mexico pushed the Rio Grande over its banks, filling wide channels between the earthen levees on both sides of the border. The city could remain threatened for several days after record water levels filled the wide channels between earthen levees on both sides of the border. "These levees are not designed to be dams. The water pressure could find a weakness." If the levee does break, low-lying parts of the city, including hundreds of homes, would be gradually swamped. The recent rains and flooding aren't related to Hurricane Ike, which hit hundreds of miles to the east.

KENTUCKY - At 1:52 p.m. Sunday, Louisville was hit with wind gusts of 75 mph. But the storm that slammed the Derby City wasn't a hurricane, just hurricane-force wind gusts. For a weather event to be considered a hurricane, it takes winds that have reached a constant or sustained speed of 74 mph or more. Louisville had sustained winds of only 53 mph. Hurricane-force wind gusts are UNUSUAL for Louisville. "As far as we know — at least in recent history — IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE." Lexington got tropical force wind gusts at 60 mph, and 37 mph sustained winds. Louisville got hit harder than Lexington because it was closer to the center of the storm, which moved northeast through central Indiana and into Ohio.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008 -

Beliefs are what divide people. Doubt unites them.
Peter Ustino

QUAKES -
IRAN - a magnitude-5 earthquake has cut electricity and caused panic on Iran's Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf today. The earthquake was the second strong temblor to hit Qeshm in a week. On Sept. 10, a magnitude-6 quake killed seven people and injured 40 others. It sent tremors across the Gulf and shook the skyscrapers of Dubai.

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/16/08 -
6.1 EAST TIMOR REGION
5.4 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.0 MAHARASHTRA, INDIA
5.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.8 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Volcano Nevado del Huila is still rumbling and remains unstable and at risk of erupting, officials said Monday, a day after a 4.0 earthquake shook the cone in southcentral Colombia. A yellow alert remains in effect in the zone and the National Emergency System has prepared to evacuate local resients in case of an eruption. Although the cone is shedding ice from its northern slope, they anticipate no repeat of the avalanches into the canyons of the Páez and Simbolá rivers that occurred the last three times the volcano heated up. The current activity dates to the first days of September.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Volcanic activity in the Papua New Guinea town of Rabaul is now at its highest point since the devastating eruption of 1994 which wiped out two thirds of the town. Up to 40 centimetres of volcanic ash blankets the community and surrounding mountains. There are concerns the oncoming wet season rains will create mudslides. Ash on rooftops is also a problem because it turns to mud in rains, collapsing some homes. "It could sort of increase again but that's difficult to say - but at the moment the trench of the activity we are monitoring is sort of also showing signs of the eruption ending, but that has been contrary to what we've been seeing during the past two months, so you know things can change."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDIA - At least 20 villages spread over an area of 64 kilometres along the coastline in East Midnapore district were flooded when 15-foot high tidal waves, caused by a depression in the Bay of Bengal, struck them last night. More than 20,000 people were sheltered in 11 relief camps set up in the most affected Ramnagar blocks one and two and Khejuri block two. The tidal waves, drawing further strength from last night's neap tide, damaged sea walls at Khejuri, Shankarpur, Kanthi, Ramnagar, Egra and other areas along the coastline. The neap tide occurs just after the first and third quarters of the moon. The maximum damage done was at Nalaitola at Khejuri block two where sea water gushed in through a big chasm in the sea wall. The waves also washed away 100 make-shift eateries along the coast at Digha.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 02B was 109 nmi SW of Calcutta, India.
Tropical storm SINLAKU was 154 nmi N of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Hurricane Ike's death toll in the U.S. is up to 50 as authorities on the Texas coast are reporting another fatality from the storm. Crews have found the first five victims on Galveston Island and another in Brazoria County. Authorities have said they expected to find bodies in Galveston. ( dramatic before and after photo)
The National Hurricane Center said it could not immediately confirm that this year's storm season marks THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD THAT SIX CONSECUTIVE NAMED TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES HAVE MADE LANDFALL IN THE U.S. Three of the last six named storms struck Texas. The others hit Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina. Hurricane Ike has already been tagged with causing an estimated $27 billion in damage in the U.S., the third most destructive U.S. storm on record, after Andrew in 1992, and Katrina in 2005. With two-and-a-half months to go, the 2008 season has so far produced more than half of the storms predicted for this year. (track map)

Tropical Storm Sinlaku, which left seven people dead when it battered Taiwan as a typhoon, is moving back over open water and is forecast to strengthen on its approach to the southern islands of Japan. In Taiwan it brought as much as 1,600 millimeters (5.3 feet) of rain to some areas, sparking landslides and causing rivers to flood their banks. The storm dumped heavy rain on China's coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian and the city of Shanghai on Monday.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
TIBET - Traffic on a highway linking Tibet to the neighboring province of Sichuan came to a halt on Tuesday for the second time this month, following another landslide.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Food shortages have forced Scotland's seabirds to attack and kill chicks from neighbouring nests, experts have found. In the past attacks on chicks were extremely rare. Young guillemots on the Isle of May colony, in the Firth of Forth, have been pecked to death or thrown off cliff edges. The birds responsible were stressed, hungry and determined to stop other chicks from receiving food. Adult guillemots were having to spend so much time finding food in the last year that parents were also leaving eggs and chicks unattended, putting them at risk from exposure and the weather. The findings indicate that social harmony, even in long-established colonies, could break down if conditions toughened, for example if the prospect of starvation looms.

Polar ice loss heralds a change in the weather - While this summer's minimum polar ice extent failed to surpass last year's retreat, scientists are not greeting the news with a sigh of relief. The record minimum set in 2007 caught many by surprise, but this year's observations are equally disconcerting. Experts expected the winter of 2007-2008 to bolster the sea ice and hold the 2008 minimum well above the record low. Instead, the 4.52 million square kilometers of ice recorded on September 12, 2008 was just 10 percent shy of the record minimum. "We're heading towards a new state in the Arctic." This year's pattern of ice retreat is not a new phenomenon, but it popped up in more locations than experts had expected. "In a lot of ways, this year is more remarkable than last year." Cooler temperatures and cloudier skies kept the ice from reaching another record, but scientists were looking for those factors to help the ice to regain some of the area it lost last year. This summer's extent was not the significant rebound scientists were expecting. It would take four to five consecutively cool summers to regain what has been lost in the past two years. "It doesn’t seem like that’s realistic under current conditions." Most sea ice experts agree that summer ice may vanish from the North Pole in 2030 — some even posit 2012 as the landmark date. Without the ice to reduce the sun's heating power, the Arctic Ocean's temperatures will shoot up in the summer, disrupting ocean circulation patterns around world over. And, as ocean currents shift, weather may fall into unpredictable patterns.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008 -

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.
Dean Martin

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/15/08 -
5.2 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 02B was 106 nmi SSW of Calcutta, India.
Tropical storm SINLAKU was 177 nmi WNW of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Hurricanes Ike and Gustav have between them inflicted THE WORST DAMAGE IN CUBA'S HISTORY.

TYPHOON SINLAKU, which brought down parts of two bridges and dumped as much as 1400mm of rain in parts of Taiwan, killed at least seven people with 14 missing. At least 460,000 people have been evacuated from the Chinese provinces of Zhejiang and Fujiang.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
Ike resurrects river flooding fears across Midwest - Just a few months after near-record flooding in the Midwest, authorities in towns along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers fear a soggy repeat following heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ike. "The old-timers knew it was wise to leave the sandbags." The National Weather Service is projecting moderate flooding from Hannibal south to the convergence of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. Major flooding is expected from St. Louis south to Cape Girardeau, though thanks to levees and buyouts, few homes are expected to be affected. Ike dumped as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain on parts of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri after coming ashore over the weekend. It spawned a tornado in Arkansas that damaged several buildings, and delivered hurricane-force wind to Ohio, temporarily shutting down Cincinnati's main airport during the weekend. The devastating rains and winds in the Midwest brought Ike's total death toll to at least 40 in 10 states from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. (photos)
It took a one-two punch by the remnants of two separate tropical systems to produce the weekend's rare Midwest deluge. Rain fell in Chicago during 48 of the 72 hours between Friday and Sunday and totaled 8.54 inches. There have been heavier rains outside the city — among them a 17-inch drenching that hit the west and southern suburbs in July 1995. It established a new 24 hour statewide record. But, only once before — in August 1987 — has more rain fallen in a three-day period in the city. Moisture associated with landfalling Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell hit first on Saturday and was followed by Hurricane Ike's remnants Sunday. The downpour has pushed September's rain tally to 12.61 inches — a level nearly SEVEN TIMES NORMAL at this point in the month and four times the full month norm.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Sea ice in the Arctic appears to have passed its minimum extent, scientists say, without breaking last year's record.

Monday, September 15, 2008 -

We are alone, absolutely alone on this chance planet:
and, amid all the forms of life that surround us,
not one, excepting the dog, has made an alliance with us.
Maurice Maeterlinck

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/14/08 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.5 EAST TIMOR REGION
5.1 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND

SRI LANKA - a shortage of fish could be a sign of an impending under sea earthquake - certain kinds of fish in the Asian waters including in the sea outside Sri Lanka were scarce before the recent earthquakes in Indonesia and Japan. Fish leave the waters and swim far away whenever they sense an impending earthquake. According to reports, certain kinds of fish were not available even in Sri Lanka before the recent earthquake. A scientist noticed this on three occasions including during the 2004 Tsunami. He found out in his research that fish was scarce before the 2004 Tsunami but were available in large amounts after it. He stressed the need for more intense study on the situation as it could help prevent a major disaster. A leading fishing industrialist from Trincomalee who confirmed that the fish had become scarce in the Eastern seas said the sea is windy and the fishing has become impossible. He said all they catch are weeds in their nets instead of fish.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon SINLAKU was 116 nmi NNE of Taipei, Taiwan.

CANADA - Remnants of Hurricane Ike brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to the Windsor area on Sunday, tangling up power lines, toppling trees and making driving difficult in some areas. The storm followed a slow-moving frontal system that struck the Windsor area on Saturday with 75.2 millimetres of rain, SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS SEPTEMBER 13 RECORD of 39.1 millimetres set in 1979. Another rainfall record was expected to be set Sunday, when Environment Canada extended its rainfall warning for Windsor-Essex County as Ike continued moving toward the Toronto area. Ike was expected to remain an "intense storm" as it moves over southeastern Quebec and produce heavy rains over parts of Labrador Sunday night and this morning.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
ILLINOIS - Chicago seeks aid after WORST RAIN IN AT LEAST 137 YEARS. O'Hare International Airport recorded 6.64 inches of rain Saturday - breaking the all-time one-day record of 6.49 inches set in 1987. Records have been kept since 1871. Officials were reporting widespread flooding across much of northern Illinois and extreme northwest Indiana, with rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches in certain areas. Saturday's pounding rain was not related to Hurricane Ike. Remnants of Tropical Storm Lowell, which had come in from the Pacific, got caught up with a cold front, sending a wave of moisture into the region. But on Sunday, as the remnants of Ike worked their way farther into the country's heartland, heavy rain was expected over much of the region, including Illinois.

INDIANA - In South Bend, heavy rain impacted the area during the day on Saturday. Not only did this create widespread flooding, but it also DEMOLISHED EVERY RECORD IN THE BOOK. Wettest Day Ever - As of Saturday evening, the rainfall total in South Bend was an amazing 6.43". This is a new record for the most rain in one day, and it's not even close. The old record was 4.69", which was set on June 25, 1968. Wettest September Ever - Because of the daily rainfall of 6.43", the monthly total is now 9.43". This is now the wettest September on record, and we're only halfway through the month. The old record was 9.01" set in 1977. Wettest Month of All-Time? - Because there is more rain on the way, it is very possible that this month will break the record for the all-time wettest for any month. The current record is 10.86" set in June 1993. This month has replaced September 1977 as the wettest September on record. September 1977 was just a few months prior to the worst winter ever here. During that winter, which included the infamous Blizzard of '78, South Bend received a total of 172" of snow. Perhaps a sign that this winter will be harsh...?

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

NEW JERSEY - Heat breaks N.J. records in aftermath of Hurricane Ike. Hundreds of miles away from the pummeling it gave Texas, Hurricane Ike Sunday brought New Jersey a RECORD-SETTING dose of September steam. A high of 92 degrees, recorded at 3:31 p.m. at Newark Liberty International Airport, tied a record set in the city in 1931. That easily eclipsed the usual average for mid-September, which is in the upper 70s. The heat and humidity can be partly traced to remnants of Ike moving toward the lower Great Lakes region. The low-pressure system from Ike to the north and west of New Jersey, combined with high pressure to the south, allowed warm air to flow from the south and intensify the heat hovering over the state. "It's strange. Something's not right for it to switch like that." Temperatures are expected to be back to normal tomorrow Tuesday, with a high near 74.

Sunday, September 14, 2008 -

My dog is worried about the economy because Alpo is up to 99 cents a can.
That's almost $7.00 in dog money.
Joe Weinstein

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/13/08 -
5.5 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.7 COLOMBIA
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
9/12/08 -
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.9 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.8 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

CANADA - A magnitude 4.6 earthquake shook the sea floor off the west coast of Vancouver Island on Friday, the latest in a series of tremors that began in late August. The quake was not felt on land and presented no tsunami threat. It took place about 5 a.m. and originated more than 300 kilometres west of Victoria, five to 10 kilometres below the ocean floor. The recent "swarm" of earthquakes off the Island have been building in intensity, but are still within the range of previous swarms.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression IKE was 370 nmi N of Galveston, Texas. [At 11pm Saturday, IKE still was exhibiting solid and well-defined spiral bands in radar imagery and still qualified as a tropical cyclone as it entered Arkansas.]
Typhoon SINLAKU was 49 nmi SSE of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression 17W was 478 nmi E of Tokyo, Japan.

Rescue crews canvassed neighborhoods inundated by Ike's storm surge early this morning, racing against time to rescue those who faced a second harrowing night trapped amid flattened houses, strewn debris and downed power lines. Authorities hoped to spare thousands of Texans — 140,000 by some estimates — who ignored mandates to flee Hurricane Ike, from another night among the destruction. Some had been rescued, but unknown thousands remained stranded. Only four deaths have been blamed on Ike so far — two in Texas and two in Louisiana. The Category 2 storm crashed into Texas with 110 mph winds. The storm surge turned out to be much lower than forecast - 13.5ft (4m) after predictions of 20 to 25ft foot (6 to 7.5m). The storm weakened to a tropical depression early this morning, but was still packing 35-mph winds as it dumped rain over Arkansas and headed toward Missouri. Tornadoes are also possible today in parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri as Ike heads toward the north-northeast. Ike was the first major storm to directly hit a major U.S. metropolitan area since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005. Storm surge that crawled some 30 miles inland in Louisiana flooded tens of thousands of homes. A levee broke and some 13,000 buildings flooded in Terrebonne Parish. (photos / video) Ike's wind field was a Category 2. But this storm is so big that it's pushing water more like a Category 4 storm. It's a Category 2 wind field, but a Category 4 storm surge. It's VERY UNUSUAL, and that's what makes this hurricane unique. This has been unfortunate because there's a lot of coastal residents that said, "I'm just going to stay for a Category 1 or 2 and not worry about that." And now we have a situation where a lot of people maybe stayed because they thought it was going to be a Category 2, not anticipating it was going to have a Category 4 storm surge. [The diameter of Ike’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds were 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Category 5 Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles.]
Ike, an eyewitness view - From just after midnight through 7:30 Saturday morning, Hurricane Ike's winds spread a constant, ominous moan all across the sprawling Houston metropolitan area. Trees bent further than nature ever intended them to bend. The rain was so thick it looked like fog. The Category 2 hurricane veered slightly eastward on its way across Galveston Island, sparing the Houston area from the monster 25-foot storm surge that had been predicted. Instead, the surge appeared to have topped out at around 12 feet—still a huge wave, but well shy of a tsunami. Glass blew out of some downtown Houston skyscrapers, downed tree limbs and power lines littered most streets and roads, hundreds of houses were flooded and all but a handful of the metropolitan area's 4 million residents had lost power, possibly for weeks. That was significant damage, to be sure. But at least the early reports suggested the region had been spared the kind of mass casualties that seared Hurricane Katrina into the nation's memory three years ago.

HAITI - Desperate Haitian residents have nowhere to go to escape flood waters - after Hurricane Ike sent storm runoff from the mountains into the city center at depths of 5 feet or more, the flood waters continued to flow Thursday.

Lubbock, Texas, declared a state of emergency Friday after tropical depression Lowell dumped nearly 7½ inches of rain in 24 hours, causing widespread flooding that swamped homes and shut down Texas Tech University as well as some businesses. There were no reported injuries. "We've had a HUNDRED-YEAR-FLOOD type rain. It was a RECORD FOR THE DAY. We're a relatively flat place that can't take that type of rain." The rains were connected to a Pacific storm, Tropical Depression Lowell. "It snuck in and for us it was a major storm, no question about it."
KANSAS - The heavy rain that has battered Wichita and much of southcentral Kansas this weekend isn’t related to Hurricane Ike either. Tropical Storm Lowell came ashore in mainland Mexico earlier this week, and a stalled frontal boundary draped across Kansas has been tapping into the tropical moisture that streamed northeast from Mexico.
Wichita saw THE MOST RAIN EVER RECORDED IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD for the city on Friday, leading to flooding in parts of the city, especially west Wichita. 10.31 inches of rain fell, which was a record for Sept. 12 as well as a record for a 24-hour period in the city. "It's ALREADY THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD, and we're not even halfway through it." (photos)

TAIWAN - Typhoon Sinlaku slammed into Taiwan with heavy rain and strong winds, leaving at least 13 people injured. Torrential rains triggered rock falls that blocked roads and flights and rail services were canceled. China's coastal Fujian and Zhejiang provinces issued alerts on Saturday for the typhoon and evacuated 200,000 people from low-lying coastal regions.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - Butterfly numbers may be at their LOWEST EVER SUMMER LEVEL. A wet and miserable summer with very little sunshine has dashed hopes of a recovery following a wash-out breeding season last year. Garden species such as small tortoiseshell, peacock and red admiral seem to have been among the worst hit. Following a record-breaking wet summer last year which brought widespread flooding - August has again proved to be a massive disappointment with more rain falling in the first 17 days (95.5 mm) than the long-term average (84.6 mm) for the whole month. Rain forces butterflies to find shelter and prevents them foraging for the nectar they need to fuel a good breeding season. To thrive they need a settled period of warm weather with just enough rain to make the flowers grow.

CHINA - The death toll has risen to 254 with the discovery of dozens more bodies in the landslide triggered by the collapse of an illegal mining dump, which engulfed a village in northern China.

HEALTH THREATS -
Deadly goat plague hits Africa - Morocco is to vaccinate 22 million goats and sheep against a deadly virus which has spread in an epidemic since July.

Friday, September 12, 2008 -

Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
Voltaire

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/11/08 -
6.7 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.5 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REG, CHINA
5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.5 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
6.9 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.3 SOUTHERN IRAN

VOLCANOES -
COLUMBIA - Volcano Nevado del Huila - Residents have been urged to abandon their homes in a scattering of towns in the western departments of Cauca and Huila as officials put a yellow alert in effect in expectation of the eruption of Volcano Nevado del Huila. As many as 108 seismic events are occuring daily, up from between 80 and 89 in the last week of August. In the last eight days, 761 seismic events have been registered, including 197 relating to fluid dynamics inside volcanoes, and the most powerful have registered up to 4.6 on the Ritcher scale. If this level of activity continues, the alert level will rise to orange. In 1994, more than 1,000 people were killed when an avalanche provoked an eruption.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
SOUTH AFRICA - East London has lost a major tourist attraction after one of its most popular beaches was washed away by monster waves during the violent storm last week. Of the city’s beaches, Gonubie was the hardest hit and may have to close for longer than others because of the damage caused. This after an enormous quantity of sand was washed away while the popular Boardwalk sustained damage and has been closed to the public. Just over a week ago the main parking area was practically level with the beach, but now one has to descend a number of steps to get down onto the beach. Apart from the high waves which battered the coast, the swell had also approached the coastline from a more southerly direction than the normal south-westerly direction common off the East London coast. On top of that came the extremely high waves which inflicted further damage to coastal infrastructure. Strong swells and heavy winds along the east coast have caused extensive damage to the Eastern Cape's Tsitsikamma National Park. Large swell coupled with spring tides and a heavy surge (mainly wave set-up) caused extensive coastal flooding.
When the fierce storms thundering in from the deep southern ocean struck Cape Town on the last weekend of August, it was pretty much business-as-usual for the vast systems that control the weather over this part of the world. What was somewhat UNUSUAL was the energy it developed as it approached, and the effect it had on the seas lapping at the coastline of the sub-continent. The titans involved were the usual suspects - the south Atlantic high pressure System and its low pressure opponent from even further south. The stronger the two cells are, and the closer they are together, the greater the effect their clashes will have on anything within reach. "Both the high pressure cell and the low pressure cell involved in this storm were particularly strong, and when they moved closer together, the wind gradient became very steep." But it was not only the wind from the storm that caused so much destruction. Huge swells that rolled in over an area of ocean about twice the size of the country slammed into the coast, damaging beachfront properties and even the railway line. The average swell heights recorded during the storm were UNUSUAL. The size of the swells were OFF THE SCALE. On synoptic charts in which swell height is indicated by different colours of shading, the largest area of the fetch had to be left in white, because red indicates the highest normal average of nine metres. Forecasters had never seen an average that high, at 10:5m. The system moved relatively slowly, despite the power of the forces at work within it. This caused those forces to have a greater effect on the immediate environment, allowing it more time to cause havoc in one spot. Evidence of this was how the sea developed a thick foam, with the wind and movement of the water acting much like a beater, beating cream into a lather. The slow movement of the system also had to do with the blocking action of another high pressure cell off the eastern coast of the country, over the Indian Ocean. Eventually, that cell would force the storm to turn away from the land mass and veer off to the southeast. It has become an annual occurrence for Cape Town to be struck by UNUSUALLY powerful systems at this time of the year. "All the really bad storms we have had in recent years have been between the end of August and the beginning of September." This week's systems would have been considered quite strong, had they not been preceded by the monster of the previous weekend.

Britain's cities face flood catastrophe as sea levels rise - London, Glasgow and other major cities around Britain are at grave risk from catastrophic flooding because flood defence planners have failed to take into account the latest evidence on rising sea levels. New research by the Met Office has revealed that the UK government's official predictions for sea level rise are out of date – because they do not include the effects of melt water from the massive Greenland ice sheet. Whereas the current flood defences are based on predictions for a sea level rises of just under one metre this century, the average water levels around Britain could rise by as much as two or three metres. The effects of "storm surges" could push water levels up further to four or even five metres. If that happened the present Thames Flood Barrier, designed to cope only with rises of just over a metre, and many sea defences around the Scottish coast would be useless.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane IKE was 214 nmi SSW of New Orleans, Louisiana.
Tropical depression LOWELL was 108 nmi NE of La Paz, Mexico.
Typhoon SINLAKU was 179 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression 16W was 116 nmi ENE of Tokyo, Japan.

Residents in one area of Texas are urged to evacuate or face "certain death" ahead of Hurricane Ike. The National Hurricane Center issued the grave warning to those living in low-lying areas around Galveston Bay. More than a million people in Texas have been advised to leave their homes before Ike hits late tonight. "All neighbourhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be inundated during the period of the peak storm tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-storey homes will face certain death." The warning was issued after it became apparent that some residents in the Galveston Bay area were resisting orders to evacuate. After barrelling into Galveston, the hurricane looked on course to hit the US's fourth largest city, Houston. Almost all energy production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down as a precaution, but the US Department of Energy said the storm was expected to miss most of the installations.
Killer storm surge - waves potentially 70 FEET high! Hurricane Ike's gargantuan size — not its strength — will likely push an extra large storm surge inland in a region already prone to it. Ike's giant girth means more water piling up on Texas and Louisiana coastal areas for a longer time, topped with bigger waves. So storm surge — the prime killer in hurricanes — will be far worse than a typical storm of Ike's strength. And because coastal waters in Texas and Louisiana are so shallow, storm surge is usually larger there than in other regions. A 1900 hurricane following a similar track to Ike inundated Galveston Island, killing more than 6,000 people — America's deadliest storm. "We're already seeing water being piled up in the Gulf. On top of that you're going to have water forced into the bays along the coast." The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot (6m) surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Above that, the center predicts "large and dangerous battering waves." Waves could be 50 feet (15m) tall. Some computer models have waves topping out at 70 feet, but the waves usually break well before hitting shore, so the maximum usually doesn't get quite that high. "It's going to do tremendous damage over a large area even if its doesn't strengthen anymore." Experts are trying to figure out when they've seen a storm this wide. Ike's tropical storm force winds stretch for 510 miles. That's about 70% larger than an average hurricane. The size and relatively slow speed means more water keeps building, pushing inland for hours after Ike hits the coast. The worst surge is always just east of the eye of the hurricane.
Hurricane Ike amazed forecasters by losing power - Ike did not behave according to plan. It seemed to be following in the wake of Hanna as it skirted the outer fringes of the West Indies, apparently preparing for an attack on the East Coast of the US. But forecasters watched in amazement when Ike suddenly turned left towards Cuba, missed Florida and headed deep into the Gulf of Mexico — a VERY UNUSUAL TRACK for a hurricane in mid-September. So what made Hurricane Ike take such an unusual track? It was pushed off course by a huge block of high pressure over the southeast corner of the US. Rather like the way a boulder in a river makes water flow around it, so a hurricane is steered around a high-pressure system.
The Turks and Caicos Islands were battered by Hurricane Ike last weekend. The devastation on the island of Grand Turk is absolute. Nothing has been left untouched by the sheer power of Hurricane Ike. It made landfall as a category four storm and the damage is immense. The streets are strewn with debris, palm trees have been shattered and 90% of the buildings have been damaged; some are simply no longer there. "It was terrible, the whole earth was shaking, the house was rocking. There was a point in time when I thought everything was going to crumble on us. The house was dancing from side to side, it was like the world was coming to an end." The infrastructure on the island has been almost entirely destroyed by the storm. Power cables are strewn around like matchsticks, the courthouse is a tangled wreck and the islanders face months if not years of rebuilding their homes. The British Red Cross is now getting aid into this chain of 40 islands any way it can. Planes and boats are being used to get fresh water and food to the islanders, many of whom have been left homeless. (photos)

Taiwan is bracing for Typhoon Sinlaku as the storm gains strength while approaching the island. Sinlaku hit the Philippines this week with heavy rains, flooding and high winds.

BURMA - Cyclone, starvation - now plague of rats devastates Burmese villages. Generals ignore a once in 50-year freak of nature that wrecks communities. Four months after Cyclone Nargis devastated Burma, another natural disaster has struck the country. This time the ruling military regime has had 50 years to prepare for it, yet it has still proved unable and unwilling to respond. The disaster, known in Burma as maudam, is caused by a cruel twist of nature. Once every 50 years or so the region's bamboo flowers, producing a fruit. The fruit attracts hordes of rats, which feed on its seeds. Some believe the rich nutrients in the seeds cause the rodents to multiply quickly, creating an infestation. After devouring the seeds, the rats turn on the villagers' crops, destroying rice and corn. In a country once known as the rice bowl of Asia, thousands of villagers are on the brink of starvation. The last three cycles of flowering occurred in 1862, 1911 and 1958, and each time they were followed by a devastating famine. The current maudam is proving just as disastrous. Up to 200 villages are affected by severe food shortages and at least 100,000 people, or 20% of the population of Chin, are in need of immediate food aid. "We can catch hundreds of rats a night, but it makes no difference. They just keep coming. They've destroyed all our crops, and now we have nothing left to eat." "In the past the bamboo flowered all at one time. The rats came, destroyed our crops, and then left. This time the bamboo is flowering in patches and each time it flowers, a new wave of rats come. Previously, we suffered for just one or two years, but now we are worried it may last seven or eight years." Every day, scores of villagers follow a tortuous mountain track to an unmanned border post into India, battling monsoon downpours, knee-deep mud and malaria. Some move to India for good, others trek for days to buy food and haul it home.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - The streets of Morpeth are buzzing with activity as clearing up continues after THE WORST FLOODING FOR 50 YEARS in Northumberland. More than 1,000 properties were affected, and about 400 people were moved to safety when the River Wansbeck burst its banks on Saturday. The area experienced one month's rain in just 12 hours.

SCOTLAND - Last year, 13 severe flood alerts. This year, 75. The number of severe flood warnings issued in Scotland has increased more than five-fold in the past year. Environmental groups have said it is further evidence of climate change, and have warned that worse is yet to come. "The combination of high-density housing and high-intensity rainfall means people are at high risk now." "August was a month of real climate chaos, with floods and landslides causing major disruption to transport systems and damage to people's homes across Scotland."

SPACE WEATHER-
Cosmic force hit Earth - On March 19 the Earth was hit by a cosmic force capable of blasting the atmosphere and wiping out most life in the world. This was a gamma ray burst, the most brilliant light event in the universe after the big bang, when the Universe first began. Fortunately for us the recent gamma ray burst came from 7.5 billion light years away, halfway across the known Universe, and too far to cause any damage on Earth. But a team of scientists recently announced that the event was bright enough to see with the naked eye, although it only lasted 40 seconds. A gamma ray burst comes from the death throes of a giant star that explodes and collapses into a black hole. A jet of gas shoots out and a narrow beam of gamma rays rips through space at close to the speed of light. In fact, the beam is so narrow it is extremely rare to take a direct hit from one. If a gamma ray burst occurred within our own Milky Way galaxy, a few thousand light years away instead of billions of light years, it is thought capable of destroying a large part of the ozone layer in the Earth’s atmosphere. The climate of the Earth could be wrecked for years afterwards and could set off a mass extinction of life across the world.

Thursday, September 11, 2008 -

Sorry no update yesterday.

To accomplish great things, we must dream as well as act.
Anatole France

QUAKES -
Quakes this morning -
Two powerful earthquakes have struck the north-eastern Indonesian Moluccas islands and Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, triggering tsunami alerts, just hours after large quakes hit in Iran and Chile. The tsunami warnings were later cancelled. The first quake, which had a magnitude of 6.7, occurred at 0902 (0002 GMT) about 120km (75 miles) north of the city of Ternate in Indonesia. A few minutes later, a 6.9-magnitude quake hit Hokkaido's coast, 220km (135 miles) east of the capital, Sapporo, in Japan. There have so far been no reports of casualties from either country. (map)

Largest quakes yesterday -
9/10/08 -
5.4 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.1 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
6.5 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.1 WESTERN XIZANG
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG

9/09/08 -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 TAIWAN REGION

IRAN - At least seven people were killed and 47 injured in the powerful earthquake that struck southern Iran yesterday. Thousands of people were evacuated from high-rise buildings across Dubai as earthquake tremors from nearby Iran shook the city. The tremor lasted about 30 seconds but was followed by at least 10 aftershocks.

CHINA - The devastating 8.0-magnitude earthquake in China's Wenchuan county in May has increased the risk of major quakes along nearby geological fault lines, a group of international experts said in a report seen on Thursday. Geological stress has significantly increased on three major fault systems in the region. The Longmenshan quake has doubled the probability of major earthquakes on the other three fault lines to between 57 per cent and 71 per cent for a quake of at least 6 on the Richter scale in the next 10 years. 'One great earthquake seems to make the next one more likely, not less. We tend to think of earthquakes as relieving stress on a fault. That may be true for the one that ruptured, but not for the adjacent faults.' Thousands of aftershocks have shaken the area since May, including two 6.1- and 5.6-magnitude quakes at the southern end of the Longmenshan fault that killed at least 38 people in the last two days of August.

Ocean mud potential cause of 'megaquakes' - Scientists believe ocean floor sediments may be the cause of megaquakes, including the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake and tsunami. Subduction zones, areas where the ocean crust grinds beneath an adjacent tectonic plate, are infamous for their catastrophic temblors, called 'megathrusts,' which often generate powerful earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. The trenches formed by subduction are packed with sediment. Washed from eroding mountain ranges, the detritus can fill trenches with up to five kilometres of mud. The researchers belive that where the sediment is thickest is where worst earthquakes inevitably strike. In the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, aided by a thick layer of sediment, a 1600-kilometer-long region of the fault slipped all at once. 25% of earthquakes don't occur where there are lots of sediments. Large temblors in Kamchatka, Russia, and southern Peru, for instance, occurred in sediment-poor trenches. The exceptions complicate any efforts to predict where the next big quake - and tsunami - might strike based on the amount of sediment in subduction zone trenches.

VOLCANOES -
ITALY - New research indicates that Mount Vesuvius' magma chamber is slowly traveling upwards, suggesting that the volcano may not be as hazardous as previously thought. Knowing the location of the lava pool is important because more pressure builds up, the deeper a pool is, resulting in more powerful eruptions.
But French and Italian scientists said yesterday they could not rule out another cataclysmic explosion by Vesuvius, the volcano that destroyed Pompeii in AD79. Vesuvius has been capricious throughout history, blowing up in explosive clouds of dust and poisonous, superheated gas but at other times erupting more safely, rolling lava slowly down its conical flanks.The volcano has been dormant since 1944. “If this magma is of a more acid composition, a type similar to the one which caused the Pompei eruption, you can can expect an extremely explosive, dangerous eruption." In such an event, 700,000 people would be potentially at threat. “On the other hand, if the magma is of mainly basalt composition, as in the last eruption in 1944, it would be of a flow type, with streams of lava, and that would be far less destructive.” Geological signatures show that from about 20,000 years ago to the Pompeii eruption in AD79, Vesuvius had a treaclier magma associated with violent eruptions preceded by billowing clouds of suffocating dust and toxic gas. But from 1631 to 1944, hundreds of safer “lava-flow” eruptions occurred, similar to what is happening at the moment at the Stromboli volcano on Sicily.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
AUSTRALIA - Climate change has caused an increase in weather events and extreme waves being generated off the southern coast of Australia, researchers have found. An analysis of available data shows significant increases in wave heights in the Southern Ocean over the past 45 years, particularly during the southern hemisphere autumn and winter months. The frequency of large wave events has also increased. Researchers also discovered a connection between an increase in the power of waves in northern Australia and the length and strength of monsoon seasons.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane IKE was 247 nmi N of Cancun, Mexico. [Ike could reach Category 4 strength in the next 48 hours before making landfall.]
Tropical depression LOWELL was 28 nmi NNW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.[dying out]
Typhoon SINLAKU was 289 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.
Tropical depression 16W was 160 nmi SE of Tokyo, Japan.

Hurricane Ike growing stronger - Thousands of people have fled the Texas Gulf coast as deadly Hurricane Ike bears down, growing in power after ravaging Cuba and the Caribbean.
Category Two Hurricane IKE continues to exhibit some UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. Wind data indicate that the intensity is still near 85 KT...which is anomalously low for the reported central pressure. The central pressure...946 MB...would normally correspond to a borderline Category 3-4 hurricane. The tropical cyclone has a very large wind field, particularly over the northern semicircle in the northern Gulf. However it continues to have a small inner core with an eye just under 10 N MI in diameter. There has been a double wind maximum, although hurricane hunter observations suggest that the outer wind band is beginning to contract.
Everyone is marveling at Hurricane Ike's size. Tropical storm-force winds are being registered 255 miles from the eye of the storm, and satellite images show the storm engulfing the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Thousands of people are being evacuated from Galveston, Corpus Christi and other areas on the Texas Gulf Coast. "It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot rang, which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%." Hurricane Ike is the fifth hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in 2008, and it was the most powerful to make landfall, when it struck Cuba. Before Ike, there had been four deadly storms in the Atlantic, Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, Hanna and Tropical Storm Fay. Hanna, which is blamed for at least 163 deaths in Haiti, and possibly more than 500, is the deadliest storm so far. Behind Ike, Tropical Storm Josephine dissipated earlier this week, and in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lowell has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it heads toward Baja California. The Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season is only now at its traditional peak. Already there have been 10 named storms, including five hurricanes (Bertha, Dolly, Gustav, Hanna and Ike), three of them major (Bertha, Gustav and Ike). The latest government forecast called for 14 to 18 named storms, seven to 10 of which would become hurricanes, three to six of them major. Remaining Atlantic storms names for this season = Kyle - Laura - Marco - Nana - Omar - Paloma - Rene - Sally - Teddy - Vicky - Wilfred.
(the link has summaries and photos of all the Atlantic and Pacific tropical storms so far in 2008)

Taiwanese authorities issued a sea alert to ships and warned of floods and mudslides as Typhoon Sinlaku strengthened into a Category 4 storm. The typhoon was carrying gusts of more than 200 kph (120 mph) and was churning towards the northern tip of Taiwan today but was expected to weer off towards Japan. It is the 13th typhoon this season.
Normally, the western Pacific Basin is very busy in early September, as this is near the peak of the tropical activity across the region. In a normal year, there are 31 tropical cyclones across the region, and an average of 17 typhoons, nearly triple the activity in the Atlantic Basin. It had been 10 days since Tropical Storm 14W weakened and dissipated north of the Philippines and at this time of year, it is quite UNCOMMON to have a 10-day stretch without even a tropical depression forming.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
MEXICO - More than a dozen dams in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua are at capacity or spilling over. Officials are monitoring the dams, especially as Hurricane Ike prepares to dump more rain on the region. Some of the extra water is being released into the Rio Grande to help pay back Mexico's water debt to Texas. Elsewhere, rains have caused a landslide that buried a small community eastern Mexico, killing a woman and her 3-year-old son.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SOUTHERN AFRICA - At least 89 people have died in wildfires sweeping through Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland. 49 people have died in central Mozambique and the toll may rise further. The fires claimed more than 40 lives in South Africa and Swaziland. The fires, which started amid high temperatures last week and have been fanned by strong winds, have destroyed four schools and left 3,000 people homeless. Vast swathes of farmland have been destroyed, and livestock killed.

HEALTH THREATS -
A restaurant-related illness outbreak in Oklahoma featuring an UNCOMMON STRAIN of Escherichia coli has expanded to involve at least 231 people, 61 of whom have been hospitalized. The sick have been infected with E coli O111, a far less common strain than E coli O157:H7, the serotype typically identified in E coli outbreaks. Both strains can cause the form of kidney failure known as hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), which is potentially fatal. Sixteen of the 61 people hospitalized in the outbreak have received dialysis treatment. Health officials have not yet identified a specific food source for the outbreak. "This appears to be THE LARGEST E COLI O111 OUTBREAK EVER REPORTED IN THE U.S."

Tuesday, September 9, 2008 -

Old age means realizing you will never own all the dogs you wanted to.
Joe Gores

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/8/08 -
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 FIJI
7.0 VANUATU
6.5 VANUATU

VANUATU - A strong 7.0 magnitude undersea quake struck off the South Pacific island of Vanuatu but seismologists said no tsunami was generated and there were no immediate reports of damage.

MYSTERY BOOMS -
NORTH CAROLINA - 9/7/08 - Emergency officials said residents in Clayton and Wendell reported hearing loud booms that shook their houses Sunday evening at approximately 5:45 p.m. People in Selma and Middlesex reported the same thing. Emergency crews were searching the area for the source of the noise. Some residents have speculated that the noise might have been the result of a sonic boom, a term that is commonly used to refer to the shocks caused by the supersonic flight of a military aircraft. However, officials at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Wayne County said planes are not allowed to produce a sonic boom. Plus, all of the base's F-15s completed landing at 4:15 p.m. (many individual reports at link)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane IKE was 45 nmi SW of Havana, Cuba.
Tropical storm LOWELL was 230 nmi WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Typhoon SINLAKU was 342 nmi NE of Manila, Philippines.

Category One Hurricane Ike has powered ashore south of Cuba's capital, Havana, bringing with it fierce winds and heavy rains and killing four. Huge waves pounded the capital's seafront promenade as the eye of the storm moves closer, while there are floods and mudslides on higher ground. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from Havana ahead of the storm's second landfall this week. Four people are known to have died so far in the storm, which battered the east of the island on Monday. It is the first time in several years that a hurricane has claimed lives in Cuba, which is renowned for its well-organised mass evacuations. Almost 1.25 million people have been moved to shelters so far - more than one tenth of the island's population. The Cuban authorities have put the entire population on maximum alert. The hurricane first came ashore in Cuba on Monday near Punta Lucrecia in the state of Holguin, about 510 miles south-east of Havana. Winds of about 100mph tore the roofs off many buildings, knocked down trees and destroyed crops. As Ike moved back out to sea, the US National Hurricane Center downgraded it to a Category One after its maximum sustained winds dropped to about 80mph. However, it said a slight increase in intensity was possible while the storm's centre remained over the warm Caribbean waters. The eye of the storm is forecast to cross into the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Unrelated heavy rains in northern Mexico have caused more than a dozen dams to reach capacity or spill over. If Ike hits the area as expected, evacuations might be necessary.
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lowell was projected to cut across the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday and emerge over the Gulf of California near the town of Loreto. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) Tuesday morning, but was expected to weaken before hitting land.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHINA - Hundreds of people may be missing after a mudslide triggered the collapse of a reservoir of iron ore waste in northern China, burying houses and sweeping away cars in a wall of thick sludge that killed at least 34 people.

FOOD / WATER / SUPPLIES-
IRAN's pistachio production is set to plunge by 60 percent because of a winter freeze.

Rambo-type people are more likely to die in a disaster than those who are strong-willed but humble, a survival expert says. An author has idenitified what he believes to be the keys to surviving a major disaster. He studied miraculous tales of survival from catastrophes like the Burmese cyclone, September 11 attacks and the Boxing Day tsunami for his book Deep Survival. "(The survivors) are people who tend to have a view of the world that does not paint them as a victim. They're not whiners who are always complaining about the bad things that are happening to them and expecting to get rescued." About 75 per cent of people caught in a catastrophe either freeze or simply wander in a daze, he says. "The first thing people do when something bad happens is to be in denial. People who make good survivors tend to get through that phase quickly. They accept the evidence of their senses." And while Rambo can survive a volley of bullets in the movies, people who overestimate their abilities are often the first to die in a real disaster. "Humility can keep you out of trouble. If you go busting into the wilderness with the attitude that you know what's going on, you're liable to miss important cues." Survivors also often had strong family connections that motivated them to not give up. To survive, people should think critically and independently about what is happening to them and not blindly follow instructions if they seem wrong.

Insurance companies are likely to suffer future declines in gross written premiums as the economy softens, after 20 per cent was wiped off the industry profitability in fiscal 2008 due to the weather.

Monday, September 8, 2008 -

Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things which escape those who dream only by night.
Edgar Allan Poe

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/7/08 -
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.5 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane IKE was 170 nmi WNW of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Tropical storm LOWELL was 283 nmi S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.[Heading towards Baja, California.]
[Remnants of JOSEPHINE in the Atlantic continue to produce showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for redevelopment in a couple of days.]

IKE - Giant waves and torrential rain from Hurricane Ike are battering Cuba but the storm has now weakened to a Category Two. The Category Two storm's maximum sustained winds are still more than 165km/h (105mph). Some homes along the coast, where some 800,000 people have been evacuated, have been damaged beyond repair. Earlier, Ike killed 61 people in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of homes on the main Turks and Caicos islands. With Hurricane Gustav striking just a week ago, Cuba's internationally acclaimed emergency services are being stretched to the limit. Gustav caused serious damage to the western side of the island, damaging almost 100,000 homes. "IN ALL OF CUBA'S HISTORY, WE HAVE NEVER HAD TWO HURRICANES THIS CLOSE TOGETHER." Ike is forecast to reach Havana early on Tuesday morning. A direct hit on the densely populated city of two million people with its precarious colonial buildings could be devastating. In the city of Holguin, "there is lot of worry, windows are beginning to break. There's a lot of water, it's raining very heavily." Haiti, the poorest country in the Western hemisphere, has endured the onslaught of four tropical storms in a three week period. The destruction in Haiti has been described as catastrophic. Ike has been moving westwards at 20km/h (13mph) and is expected to make a 30-hour track along the centre of Cuba, although weakening on the way. Although downgraded to a Category Two storm, it is still potentially very dangerous. On its current track the storm could threaten the islands of the Florida Keys by Tuesday. (map)

PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday spotted a shallow low-pressure area (SLPA) near the Bicol region, which is expected to bring rains in Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila; Visayas, and Mindanao this week. The SLPA, embedded along the weather system Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), will cause widespread downpour in the Visayas. The ITCZ is a known breeding ground of tropical cyclones. The SLPA has a chance of developing into an active low pressure area (ALPA) in the next four days. This is due to the sea surface temperature (SST) east of Central and Northern Luzon, where the SLPA is expected to track, which is favorable to cyclonic circulation. Once the SLPA develops into a tropical cyclone, it will be locally named "Marce," to signify its entry as the 13th tropical cyclone in the country this year. It will also be the first tropical cyclone for the month of September.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BRITAIN - Authorities are warning of more flooding across Britain, with eight deaths blamed on severe weather in the past few days. Flooding was likely to worsen in coming days as rainwater drained into river systems. England's northeast was the most seriously affected but flash floods also hit parts of Yorkshire, Shropshire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire. Weather officials are warning of more severe weather tomorrow covering northwest England, West Wales, southwest Scotland and the whole of Northern Ireland. Five of the eight deaths happened on Friday.

Sunday, September 7, 2008 -

There are two ways to slide easily through life;
to believe everything or to doubt everything.
Both ways save us from thinking.
Alfred Korzybski

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/6/08 -
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
9/5/08 -
5.8 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.3 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - A lava lake is bubbling under the surface of Kilauea volcano's summit. Scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Hawaii's Big Island discovered the lake Friday during a routine flyby over the summit’s active Halemaumau crater vent. It was the first time they had seen such activity at the vent since it opened up with an eruption on March 19. The sloshing 160-foot diameter lava lake is about 330 feet below the rim of the vent. HVO scientists have long speculated that magma was bubbling just below the surface of the vent, but were unable to visually confirm this until the helicopter flyby. On Tuesday evening, an explosion rocked the Halemaumau vent enlarging it slightly and ejecting lava spatter as high as the crater rim . The explosion was the vent’s sixth of note since activity began in March. The explosions have doubled the size of the vent to more than 215 feet across since April. Scientists say that the volume of material ejected in Tuesday’s explosion and the vent’s unusually bright incandescence on recent nights are consistent with lava ponding just below the surface of the vent. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm HANNA was 57 nmi NE of Boston, Massachusetts.
Hurricane IKE was 153 nmi N of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Tropical depression JOSEPHINE was 1334 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm LOWELL was 220 nmi SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Category 4 Hurricane Ike brought driving winds and rain to the Caribbean islands of Turks and Caicos, and the storm is steaming towards the Bahamas. Turks and Caicos were already pummeled for four days in the past week by Tropical Storm Hanna. Ike's uncertain path forced millions from the Caribbean to Florida, and Louisiana to Mexico, to nervously wonder where it would strike. Preparations stretched more than 1,000 miles. The massive, 135-mph storm took a southwesterly shift that could send it over Cuba and the Florida Keys by Tuesday before heading into the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once again, a possible target was New Orleans and the already storm-weary U.S. Gulf Coast.

HAITI - More than 500 people were found dead in Haiti as international aid trickled to desperate residents who have not eaten in days since the latest in a battery of severe storms crushed the country, and yet another storm poses a grave threat. As the death toll jumped nearly five-fold in the wake of Tropical Storm Hanna, the poorest country in the Americas was staring catastrophe in the face as Hurricane Ike strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" storm and threatened to dump torrential rains on Haiti's vulnerable northwest coast. And more deaths could emerge. "The toll is increasing hourly." Ground zero of the devastation was in Gonaives. 650,000 people have been affected by the flooding, including 300,000 children, and key bridges have been washed out or blocked leaving many of the country's roads impassable and complicating the task of humanitarian groups trying to deliver crucial aid. Hurricane Ike was forecast to pass north of Haiti, sparing it from a direct hit, but it strengthened Saturday to a Category Four storm and was expected to lash northern Haiti with heavy rains. (photos)

Tropical Storm Hanna poured as many as 9 inches of rain on the mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday, causing flooding in some low-lying areas in Virginia and sporadic power outages before plowing north through Delaware and New Jersey. Tropical storm warnings and watches stretched from North Carolina to Massachusetts, and the storm promised to dampen the weekend on much of the seaboard. Hanna, which caused more than 100 deaths as it passed through Haiti, made landfall along the North Carolina-South Carolina border at 3:20 a.m. The National Hurricane Center measured its sustained winds at 70 m.p.h., just short of the 74 m.p.h. needed to qualify as a hurricane.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BANGLADESH - Thousands of families marooned by floods in Faridpur, Munshiganj, Bogra, and Jamalpur are facing a crisis of food and drinking water. New areas have also been inundated after the Jamuna flood control dam was breached in Sariakandi, Bogra. Hundreds of families in four unions of Sadar Upazila have been without any means of support after being trapped by flood waters for over a month. "Forecasts say water levels may rise further." In Bogra, floods inundated new areas when the Jamuna flood control dam was breached. A riverbank slide caused 600 people to lose their homes in Hashail and Panchgaon areas.

NEPAL - Property worth millions of rupees has been damaged due to landslides triggered by incessant rainfall. The landslides swept away over 150 ropanis of rice field, damaged over a dozen dams, three cowsheds and nearly three kilometres section of irrigation canal. A landslide also damaged Sindhu Highway causing a disruption in traffic movement. The river has eroded over 200 ropanis of land in the Majhi settlement in the village this rainy season. Some of the affected families have been displaced from the village and are living in makeshift camps in a nearby jungle.

WALES - Widespread flooding across Wales - Throughout Wales, the emergency services were bracing themselves itself for more flooding misery after A MONTH'S WORTH OF RAIN FELL on Friday alone. Flood warnings are covering the whole country, with more heavy rain expected. Friday’s storms saw major roads blocked, houses and schools evacuated and narrow escapes as motorists were trapped in the rising floodwaters.

EGYPT - Rescuers in Cairo are continuing their search for survivors after a rockslide crushed dozens of houses in Egypt's capital, killing at least 30 people. Dozens of houses in a shanty town in the eastern Duwayqa area were hit by huge boulders and rocks on Saturday. At least 40 people were injured and dozens are said to be still trapped in the rubble. A six-storey building below the Muqattam hills had been completely reduced to rubble. It was not clear what had triggered the rockfall but local residents were blaming construction work on the hill for causing the disaster. At least eight boulders - each estimated to weigh about 70 tonnes - fell from the towering cliffs overlooking the district at about 0900 local time (0700 GMT). "The power went out, we heard a loud bang like an earthquake and I thought this house had collapsed. I went out, I saw the whole mountain had collapsed. It was horror."

Friday, September 5, 2008 -

A dog owns nothing, yet is seldom dissatisfied.
Irish Proverb

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/4/08 -
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 WESTERN XIZANG-INDIA BORDER REG.
5.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

CHINA - The landform in the areas hit by the 8.0-magnitude May 12 earthquake in southwest China notably changed, but outlying regions were little affected. The monitoring point of the Earth's surface in the epicenter levelly moved 238 cm. The surface sank by a maximum 70 cm and heaved up by 30 cm. The plate, west of the fault zone along the Longmen Mountain where the epicenter was located, moved southeast by 20 to 70 cm while the plate east of it moved northwest by 20 to 238 cm and sank by 30 to 70 cm. The movements of neighboring plates were small. As the powerful earthquake was caused by a crash between the Indian Ocean Plate and Euro-Asia Plate, the authority also surveyed the area around Mt. Qomolangma (Everest). It moved southwest by 2 to 3 cm. "As the landform was changed by the quake, the Earth coordinates of the region also changed."

CHINA - Southwest China has been hit by 945 aftershocks since a 6.1-on-the-Richter-scale quake killed over 40 people in the region on Saturday. The quake struck China's Sichuan Province on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. [8:30 a.m. GMT] with the epicenter about 50 km southeast of the city of Panzhihua, killing at least 44 people and destroying 258,000 homes. Shortly afterwards, an aftershock measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale, the most powerful of the aftershocks to hit the area, struck the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, in the northwest of the country. China has been hit by 21 big quakes this year, and experts predict that more could occur in the new future.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm HANNA was 96 nmi E of Melbourne, Florida.
Hurricane IKE was 391 nmi NE of St. Thomas, USVI.
Tropical storm JOSEPHINE was 1434 nmi SSW of Lajes, Azores.

Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an fiercely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Hanna intensified to a lesser degree as it swirled over the Bahamas toward the southeast U.S. Coast. Ike posed no immediate threat to land but strengthened explosively, GROWING IN THE SPACE OF A FEW HOURS FROM A TROPICAL STORM TO AN INTENSE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. Ike had top sustained winds near 145 mph (230 kph) as it swept across the open waters of the west-central Atlantic 550 miles (885 km) northeast of the Leeward Islands. It was forecast to head for the southern Bahamas early next week but it was too early to tell whether it would threaten land.
Hanna's torrential rains had already submerged parts of Haiti, stranding residents on rooftops and prompting the President to warn of an "EXTRAORDINARY CATASTROPHE" to rival a storm that killed more than 3,000 people in the flood-prone Caribbean country four years ago. Hanna was forecast to move over the central and northern Bahamas on Thursday, strengthening back into a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) before hitting the U.S. coast near the North Carolina-Virginia border on Saturday.
By late Wednesday, Josephine was swirling over the far eastern Atlantic about 465 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west but had begun to weaken.

Tropical Storm Hanna is still hours away from hitting the Massachusetts coastline, but residents have been busily gearing up for what promises to be a pretty nasty storm. Hanna should arrive between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. Sunday morning. It is a quick-moving storm and should be off the coast by 5:30 a.m. The storm is expected to hit New England with 40 to 45 mph winds and up to four inches of rain.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gustav were rumbling northeastward into the Great Lakes early today. The weakened storm will bring moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms as it treks quickly across the Great Lakes.
Gustav's rain moved out of the Ozarks after RECORD DOWNPOURS. Some central parts of Missouri got as much as 6 inches of rain. Parts of Arkansas got nearly 12 inches. Springfield got a record 2.75 inches.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
RUSSIA - Three Russian gymnasts and their coach have died when a fire ravaged their hotel. The four were training in Gelendjik, a coastal town on the Black Sea, when lightning hit the building and sparked the blaze last weekend. The victims were left with no chance of escape after the roof caved in.

CHINA - Up to 20 million people living in southwest China's Sichuan Basin could be at risk of flooding for decades following the devastating earthquake there in May. Ongoing landslides triggered by the deadly 8.0-magnitude quake in China's Sichuan Province will dump rocks and sediment into the river beds. That will raise river bed levels, giving them greater potential to burst their banks. In some areas, river beds are already two to three metres (6.5 to 10 feet) higher due to May's earthquake. Many mountain communities - which bore the brunt of the disaster - have been relocated to the basin, which had been perceived to be a safer area to live. "There is a significant risk of a major flooding disaster. At the moment it is very difficult to predict the exact nature of that risk but in 10 years or so we may be in a better position." The risk will likely last for several decades and possibly for a century. There were also knock-on effects on power in the region, due to the potential for sediment buildup in the reservoirs behind the many dams in the area, making them useless for flood control or hydro-electric power generation.

Thursday, September 4, 2008 -

The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes
but in having new eyes.
Marcel Proust

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/3/08 -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
6.3 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
5.0 EASTERN TURKEY

CANADA - A series of earthquakes have been shaking the West Coast of Vancouver Island recently including one that struck off the coast of Tofino. Scientists have recorded more than 100 small earthquakes in this general area over the past couple weeks, but say that amount of activity is not unusual. No damage has been recorded from any of the quakes and none were strong enough to cause a tsunami. Although they have yet to confirm the theory, scientists suspect the tremors are being caused by the Explorer Ridge - an area where two oceanic plates are located just off Vancouver Island and the movement of the plates away from each other may have been caused by some magmatic activity underneath the earth's crust. Natural Resources Canada rates the West Coast of Vancouver Island as an area with a high likelihood of strong, damaging earthquakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression GUSTAV was 229 nmi N of Beaumont, Texas.
Tropical storm HANNA was 275 nmi NNE of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
[HANNA has been a tenacious tropical cyclone, since its formation it has fought two upper-level lows, strong northerly shear, and the effects of land. Furthermore, at times HANNA has resembled a subtropical cyclone. Because HANNA is a large cyclone, a hurricane watch will likely be required for a portion of the southeastern U.S. coast early today.]
Hurricane IKE (category 4) was 625 nmi NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm JOSEPHINE was 1686 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical depression KARINA was 279 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Wave action spawned by Tropical Storm Hanna is already affecting Maryland beaches and those to their south. The National Weather Service has posted a Hazardous Weather Outlook noting "High Rip Current Risk" on the beaches thru the week-end.

The center of Tropical Storm Hanna is projected to be 180 miles off Northeast Florida as it passes by Friday as a minimal hurricane, bringing some rain and gusty winds primarily to the coast. The severity of Hanna's impact on the region changed significantly from Tuesday, when it threatened to move closer after leaving the Bahamas. But the storm became sloppy and disorganized overnight, suffered some wind shear and moved farther east than expected. Rain and wind are expected to begin along the Northeast Florida coast late today.

HAITI faces a "catastrophe" after being hit by three storms in recent weeks that have killed 170 people.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Heavy rain and flooding has caused extensive damage to farmlands and homes in Papua New Guinea's second largest city of Lae. PNG disaster officials say two houses have been washed away and several others are submerged. Three major rivers have caused extensive damage to farmlands and houses in and around the city. One of Lae's major rivers, the Markham, has also burst its bank and is posing a threat to thousands of villagers.

BRITAIN - Stormy Britain is to be plunged into flood hell in a week of torrential downpours. Severe weather warnings were issued Tuesday as some areas faced a third of a month’s rain in hours. Winds whipping up to 45mph forced a yacht aground near Weymouth, Dorset. And temperatures will plummet to a wintry 8C (46F) at night. Rain was forecast all this week but will be especially heavy on Friday. Wales and the south-west will be worst hit by Friday’s downpours and the rest of the country is also in for a further soaking after days of heavy rain. The Met Office said nearly an inch-and-a-half of rain would fall in some areas.
This summer's weather 'harder to predict', leading weather forecaster admits. Blaming unpredictable atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic, the chief executive of the Met Office said summer 2008 had been more difficult to predict than the previous three or four years despite a multi-million pound investment in the service. Last month was the greyest August in Britain since records began in 1914 and one of the wettest ever because of the effects of a temporary shift in the Gulf Stream - the warm Atlantic current from the Gulf of Mexico - and a cooling Pacific current known as La Niña.

KENYA - A huge hailstorm turned parts of central Kenya white, thrilling residents most of whom had never experienced such conditions. Hailstorms are usual in some parts of Kenya, which straddles the equator, but the ferocity of the storm in Busara, 255 km (158 miles) northwest of the capital was UNPRECEDENTED. Excited villagers pelted each other with snowballs while some ate pieces of the icy sheet that formed over an entire hillside. Tuesday's storm was caused by the convergence of cold air currents from the Indian Ocean and warm air currents from the Congo. "The hailstones falling on the ground joined together to form expansive sheets of ice or snow flakes occupying a large area, 30 acres." "We thought a big white sheet had been spread, so we decided to come and see for ourselves. We thought that it was Jesus who had come back," one villager told reporters. More than 12 hours after the storm, the forested hillside was still white despite the hot tropical sun. The only snow to be seen in normally sunny Kenya is on top of the country's highest mountain.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

The ice shelves in Canada's High Arctic have lost a colossal area this year, scientists report. The floating tongues of ice attached to Ellesmere Island, which have lasted for thousands of years, have seen almost a quarter of their cover break away. One of them, the 50 sq km (20 sq miles) Markham shelf, has completely broken off to become floating sea-ice. Researchers say warm air temperatures and reduced sea-ice conditions in the region have assisted the break-up. "These substantial calving events underscore the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic. THESE CHANGES ARE IRREVERSIBLE under the present climate." The loss of these ice shelves means that rare ecosystems that depend on them are on the brink of extinction. The shelves themselves are merely remnants of a much larger feature that was once bounded to Ellesmere Island and covered almost 10,000 sq km (3,500 sq miles). Over the past 100 years, this expanse of ice has retreated by 90%, and at the start of this summer season covered just under 1,000 sq km (400 sq miles). Much of the area was lost during a warm period in the 1930s and 1940s. Temperatures in the Arctic are now even higher than they were then, and a period of renewed ice shelf break-up has ensued since 2002. Extensive new cracks across remaining parts of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf mean that it will continue to disintegrate in the coming years.

The strongest tropical storms are becoming even stronger as the world's oceans warm, scientists have confirmed. Analysis of satellite data shows that in the last 25 years, strong cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons have become more frequent in most of the tropics. The number of weaker storms has not noticeably altered. "We're seeing a signal, and it's telling us that the strongest effect (of rising ocean temperatures) is on the strongest storms. At average or median wind speeds, about 40m/s [category 1], we don't see a trend; but when we get up to 50 or 60m/s we do see a trend." The increase in strong storms shows up most markedly in the North Atlantic and Indian oceans, and is absent in the South Pacific. "We're looking at different ocean basins, and some are already pretty warm. So there, an increase in temperature isn't going to produce as strong an increase as in basins where the the temperatures are only marginally supportive of cyclones." Globally, a rise of 1C in sea surface temperature would increase the occurrence of strong storms by about one third, the researchers calculate.

HEALTH THREATS -
Chemical in Plastic - Researchers at the Yale School of Medicine have linked a chemical found in everyday plastics to problems with brain function and mood disorders in monkeys. The Yale team exposed monkeys to levels of bisphenol A deemed safe for humans by the Environmental Protection Agency and found that the chemical interfered with brain cell connections vital to memory, learning and mood. "Our findings suggest that exposure to low-dose BPA may have widespread effects on brain structure and function." BPA, in commercial use since the 1950s, is found in a wide variety of everyday items, including sports bottles, baby bottles, food containers and compact discs. One recent federal study estimated that the chemical is found in the urine of 93 percent of the population. Canada has said it intends to ban the use of BPA in baby bottles, and state and federal lawmakers have proposed a variety of BPA bans. "The FDA's assurances of BPA's safety are out of step with mounting scientific evidence to the contrary. For the sake of the health of every man, woman and child in America, we should ban BPA in food and beverage containers, especially because there are alternatives already available."

Wednesday, September 3, 2008 -

Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen
and thinking what nobody has thought.
Albert Szent-Gyorgyi

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/2/08 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.4 TONGA
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

TURKEY - A moderate earthquake with a magnitude of 5.1 shook eastern Turkey on Wednesday, causing damage to buildings in the southeastern province of Adiyaman. There are no reports of any injuries. Residents ran out of their homes and stayed in the streets after the quake. The effects of the earthquake were also felt in neighboring provinces

VOLCANOES -
ALASKA - Aleutian volcano makes dramatic topographical changes - When Kasatochi volcano erupted last month, it did more than release massive clouds of ash and sulfur – it remade the face of the island. [This report is an audio clip.]

COLUMBIA - A 4.6 magnitude earthquake rattled the crater of the active Nevado del Huila volcano in southeastern Colombia near noon Tuesday. Shakes were felt in various southeastern cities and towns, including Neiva, the capital of the department of Huila, but no injuries or damages were reported. The volcano has been monitored constantly since its reactivation in 2007 after 500 years of dormancy. Activities have caused several evacuations of the surrounding areas. In April 2007, an explosion of rocks, gases and ash caused an avalanche that destroyed highways and bridges and forced 3,000 to evacuate their homes, but left no human casualties.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
MARYLAND - Over 100,000 fish found dead - The Department of the Environment says over 100,000 dead fish floated up in the South River in Annapolis Monday night. Investigators believe it may have been an entire school of fish that got caught in a tidal wave. Aberdeen Creek is a very small tidal pond area with a narrow entry from the bay. They believe the fish died because of low oxygen levels in the water.

Preliminary research from the windswept coast of southern France suggest that world's coastlines remain largely intact despite climate change. The urgent question is whether even small changes in sea levels due to climate change will wreck this natural balance and trigger devastating coastal erosion. "Relatively small changes in the wave climate could cause relatively large impacts on beaches, in the same way small temperature changes can disrupt natural ecosystems." Preliminary results show a single wave can shift the sea bed by up to two cm and move large amounts of sand. Over a three week period total movements of 100 metres have been recorded. "But, it is also possible our research could show that because beaches have this ability to find a natural equilibrium they may have the ability to adjust to rising sea levels." Nature is constantly seeking equilibrium, and no matter how extreme the short term movements, over a tidal cycle the actual change in the beach is very small. "The beach is constantly changing over short time periods, but over weeks nature rights itself and we have no idea why."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression GUSTAV was 192 nmi N of Beaumont, Texas.
Tropical storm HANNA was 93 nmi N of Port Au Prince, Haiti. (HANNA is turning east and then expected to head northwest towards the South Carolina coast.)
Tropical storm IKE was 787 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados. (IKE is likely to be an intense cyclone in the vicinity of the Bahamas in 5 days.)
Tropical storm JOSEPHINE was 2002 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados. (Most forecasts no longer show JOSEPHINE strengthening into a hurricane.)
Tropical depression KARINA was 233 nmi SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. (Forecasters say it is expected to move out to sea and weaken.)

Tropical storm, Hanna has hit the Caribbean just hours after Hurricane Gustav crossed the coast of the US state of Louisiana. The storm has killed 10 people in the town of Gonaives, Haiti, much of which is under water. There is also widespread flooding in Cuba and Puerto Rico. Hanna reached hurricane strength on Monday before weakening on Tuesday. Only days ago Hurricane Gustav passed over Haiti - killing at least 77 people and destroying thousands of homes. (map)

LOUISIANA - A tornado struck a New Orleans suburb yesterday, smashing buildings but causing no injuries in a community evacuated before Hurricane Gustav hit a day earlier.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
CHILE - Southern Chile's HEAVIEST RAINS IN FOUR DECADES have damaged hundreds of houses and left thousands of people isolated. Rain ceased early Tuesday after more than 40 hours. One woman is dead due to a collapsed wall, 2,000 have evacuated their homes and more than 12,000 are isolated by flooding in rural areas. The rainfall topped 5.5 inches (140 millimeters) in some areas.

IRELAND - The torrential flood which surged through a town last month has been described as a ONCE-IN-650-YEARS OCCURRENCE. More than 200 properties in the town were affected by the six-hour downpour on August 1, during which 10% of the annual expected rainfall for the region fell. "Water levels were WELL IN EXCESS OF ANY PREVIOUSLY RECORDED EVENT; by 600mm at the Deel Bridge and 400mm at the Grange Bridge."

JAPAN - summer marked by RECORD RAINFALL, sweltering heat. Record rainfall was recorded at 59 observation points across Japan between June and August, while many areas endured sweltering heat on a higher number of days than usual. As a result of the "guerilla" squalls that lashed Japan, RECORD HOURLY RAINFALLS were recorded at 59 of the 1,205 observation points that have data going back at least 10 years. Thirty-one spots marked record rainfall in August, with most of the rain falling between Aug. 28 and 30, when downpours wreaked havoc across the nation. The concentrated figures highlight the severity of the cloudbursts. So far this year, no typhoons have come ashore in Japan. On average, 1.5 typhoons come ashore in Japan each year by the end of August. A total of 12 typhoons had formed by the end of August, slightly below the average of 14, but atmospheric conditions made it difficult for them to come ashore. "Typhoons usually move around the rim of the Pacific high pressure system, heading toward Japan. This year the Pacific high was UNUSUALLY weak over the area near Japan, and the edge of the Pacific high moved away from Japan to the area over the sea to the east. As a result, typhoons didn't move north, but rather moved toward the Chinese continent in many cases." However, while typhoons were absent, "guerilla" rainstorms lashed Japan as a result of the weather conditions this summer. "Since the Pacific high was weak over Japan, it became easier for cooler air to move south over Japan, forming a path for low-pressure systems and fronts." A RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE in July saw 12747 people taken by ambulance to a hospital with heatstroke - 3.5 times the figure for the same month last year.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

SOUTHERN AFRICA - At least 45 people died in three days of storm-fanned wildfires in South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008 -

Human Dignity has gleamed only now and then and here and there,
in lonely splendor, throughout the ages, a hope of the better men,
never an achievement of the majority.
James Thurber

QUAKES -
Largest quakes yesterday -
9/1/08 -
5.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.5 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 FIJI REGION
6.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.4 TAJIKISTAN

VOLCANOES -
PHILIPPINES - Mayon and Taal volcanoes in Southern Luzon are still tightly watched by state volcanologists as they continue to show signs of restiveness. For the past 24 hours, 10 volcanic earthquakes were detected around Mt. Mayon in Albay. White steam clouds drifting towards west-southwest and crater glow at intensity 1 could be observed. Taal Volcano in Batangas registered three weak volcanic earthquakes over the past 24 hours. The main crater area remains off-limits because steam explosions may suddenly occur. Alert level 1 remains hoisted over both volcanoes.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
BRITAIN - Cars swept into river by FREAK TIDE - Cars were swept into the Thames when the river burst its banks Saturday. Stunned onlookers watched as the water crept across roads at Putney, south-west London, during the afternoon's high tide. The water rose several feet at a popular boating spot, taking cars out towards passing yachts. "We couldn't believe our eyes when the water started coming up so far. There wasn't a drop of rain all day - in fact it was boiling hot. It was VERY STRANGE." A spokesman for the Environment Agency said: "We always expect high spring tides at this time of year, which can cause the river to burst its banks. We hadn't expected anything like this to happen today, so it's come as a bit of a shock, but it's not completely unheard of."

PORTUGAL - A woman had to be airlifted to hospital after jumping from a three-metre height into the sea and suffering serious injuries whilst trying to rescue one of her three pet dogs from a FREAK WAVE on Praia dos Caneiros, Ferragudo. The dog was reportedly caught by the freak wave that flooded many of the Algarve’s beaches last week, at around 16h00 in the afternoon. One of the tourist’s three pet dogs, a Yorkshire terrier, was killed in the incident.

SOUTH AFRICA - Traffic was disrupted in Three Anchor Bay and Sea Point when large swells and FREAK WAVES washed a thick layer of foam over Beach Road. Gale-force winds and heavy rain caused widespread destruction in several parts of the Western Cape over the weekend. Power failures occurred extensively and snow-covered areas were cut off from the outside world. An UNPRECEDENTED gale near Durbanville caused millions of rands' worth of damage to aircraft sheds and small planes. All telephone lines were out of order after poles were blown down during the weekend storms.
In Port Elizabeth the average wind speed in the city yesterday was 80km/h, gusting up to 120km/h. Residents were bracing themselves for huge seas this morning. “Actual offshore data shows we can expect swells of between seven and 12 metres to move into the city. We don‘t usually get this kind of high swell along the coast – we usually experience swells of about 3m.” “They [the waves] are huge – I can say this is some of the biggest surf I‘ve seen.” The huge waves hit the region following a low-pressure system which rolled out from Cape Town. The Mother City was hit by plummeting temperatures, snow, hail, downpours, gale-force winds, flooding and power outages. Port Elizabeth experienced swells higher than those recorded in Cape Town this weekend as result of a cold frontal system sweeping through the eastern part of the country. A swell of 8.7m was recorded at Cape Point at lunchtime yesterday, with swells of about 5m expected today. “Swells in Port Elizabeth will be bigger today because the storm is moving eastwards."
GIGANTIC swells of up to six metres smashed onto the Eastern Cape coastline yesterday, with waves crashing over roads and into popular holiday resorts causing major havoc in some coastal towns. In Morgan’s Bay outside East London, a park home was washed away. Waves swamped roads and parking lots in East London’s Gonubie suburb, while in Port Alfred low-lying streets were closed off. At Eastern Beach in East London, waves crashed over the sandbank and into the street, leaving debris scattered across the road. All streets around the Esplanade and those leading to Marina Glen were closed off as a result. A hotel owner said it was only the second time in 30 years the swells had risen to such high levels. In nearby Morgan’s Bay, one park home was washed away as the river mouth widened by more than 100m near the local caravan park. Residents came out in their droves, flashing their cameras, camcorders and cellphones to record what some of them described as “massive” waves. “This, I have never seen before, it’s amazing. The last time I saw waves like this was in 1969.” The South African Weather Service has forecast the monster waves are likely to hit the coastline until Thursday. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm JOSEPHINE was 2088 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm IKE was 1007 nmi ENE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
Tropical storm HANNA was 161 nmi ENE of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Tropical depression GUSTAV was 107 nmi NNE of Beaumont, Texas.
An area of low pressure in the Pacific off the southern tip of Baja California has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Hurricane Hanna has weakened back into a tropical storm over the southeastern Bahamas islands but could regain strength and become a hurricane again during the day. By 8am EDT (1200 GMT), Hanna's top sustained winds had slipped to 70 mph (110 km per hour), just below the threshold at which tropical storms are classified as hurricanes.
A late evening shift in the forecast track for Hurricane Hanna looks good for the East Florida coast, but the area isn't out of the possible wind cone yet. The National Hurricane Center, busy tracking six different storms, still shows a 30 to 50 percent chance this area could receive tropical storm force winds on Thursday. Hanna has been meandering in the Bahamas. Hanna is expected to turn toward the northwest sometime today. With 80 mph sustained winds, the storm isn't expected to change much in strength during the next 24 hours. But, within 72 hours the storm may have winds near 100 mph and could strengthen a little more before making landfall.
Meanwhile, the ninth storm of the season, Tropical Storm Ike, is about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and moving west at about 15 mph. In one recent run of the models used to predict a storm's path and behavior, about half the models show the storm moving west toward the Caribbean while half show it moving north into the Atlantic.
A fourth system is a tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa, several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The center reports conditions are favorable for the wave to organize and become a tropical depression sometime in the next day or so. [It has become a tropical storm, named Josephine.]
The remaining two areas of disturbed weather are not expected to become depressions within the next couple of days.

A still-largely deserted New Orleans today prepared to take stock of damage from Hurricane Gustav after rebuilt levees appeared to hold off a repeat of the flooding caused by Katrina three years earlier.

FLORIDA - Homeowners in neighborhoods still flooded from Tropical Storm Fay continue to battle high waters and other problems, like huge swarms of buzzards that come to feast on the fish that flowed up onto the yards. Rain bands from Gustav moved through Central Florida Sunday adding to the water woes of some residents in Sanford. (links to lots of videos)

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW ZEALAND - A RECORD HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM is expected to drop more rain on parts of the South Island over the next three days than Hurricane Gustav did on New Orleans. The MetService is predicting a weather front to stall over Fiordland and South Westland which could bring in excess of 500mm of rain to the Westland Ranges and Southern Alps. The wild weather is the result of a record-breaking, 1040HP high-pressure system, which is a first for New Zealand. "It's BREAKING ALL RECORDS, we've never seen a high this big over the country before. We haven't got any explanation as to why this high-pressure is so high."

HEALTH THREATS -
Perfume 'risk to unborn babies' - Pregnant women have been told that using perfumes or scented creams may increase the risk of unborn boys developing infertility in later life. Some of the chemicals which can block male hormones are also widely used in the production of other items such as cosmetics, household fabrics and plastics. Women planning on becoming pregnant should avoid putting any cosmetic products on their skin which could then be absorbed into their bodies.

Monday, September 1, 2008 -

There are two tragedies in life. One is not to get your heart's desire.
The other is to get it.
George Bernard Shaw

QUAKES -
Lots of quakes already this morning -
5.5 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 FIJI REGION
6.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.4 TAJIKISTAN

Largest quakes yesterday -
8/31/08 -
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.5 SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA
5.6 DRAKE PASSAGE

CHINA - The death toll in the 6.1 earthquake in south-west China on Saturday is now at least 32, with 467 injuries. The quake struck close to Panzhihua town in Sichuan province, near the border with Yunnan. It was the sixth tremor to rattle the volatile region since the May 12 “Great Sichuan Earthquake”. More than 250,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed by the latest quake. More than 150,000 people have fled their homes. Aftershocks continued the day following the earthquake, with one on Sunday measuring 5.6 magnitude.
This year China has reported a RECORD NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES. Some 700 earthquakes and aftershocks have hit Yinjiang County in Yunnan Province starting August 20. Ten of those were between magnitudes 3.0-3.9 and four between 4.0-4.9.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Hurricane GUSTAV appears to have stopped strengthening and will hit the Louisiana coast at category 3.
Tropical storm HANNA, currently near the Bahamas, is being forecast to hit the coast between Georgia and South Carolina on Friday.
A broad area of low pressure west of the Cape Verde Islands is showing high potential for Tropical Cyclone formation - conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so.
A vigorous tropical wave has emerged off the West coast of Africa and iS already showing signs of organization.

Nearly 2 million people flee Hurricane Gustav, which is now nearing New Orleans. The exodus of an estimated 1.9 million people from the Louisiana coast is said to be THE LARGEST EVACUATION IN STATE HISTORY. Roads out of New Orleans - much of which lies below sea level - were crammed with traffic throughout Sunday. The first storm winds could hit New Orleans at daybreak and Gustav could reach Category Four strength. The US National Hurricane Center warned Gustav was packing winds of 115 mph (185km/h) and could bring "extremely dangerous" storm surges 14ft (4.2m) above normal. All eyes will now be on the city's levees, which Category Three storm Katrina swept away under a wall of mud and water.
Hurricane Gustav is a monster that seemed to explode into life from a tropical storm on Friday afternoon to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 230km/h (125 mph) on Saturday morning. Everything has been perfect for its growth, especially the sea temperature. The Gulf of Mexico is a notorious breeding ground for tropical storms that feed on a dangerous current of deep, warm water called the Loop. This sweeps up between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, before looping past the tip of Florida, spinning off eddies of warm water. As the warm, wet air is sucked into the storm it cools and condenses into huge thunderclouds, unleashing a phenomenal amount of energy that powers the hurricane — an average-sized hurricane has the energy of some 10,000 nuclear warheads. These waters have been responsible for almost all the worst hurricanes in recent years. More storms are queuing up in the Atlantic’s “Hurricane Alley”, with two areas of concern that could turn into full-blown tropical storms later this week. With another three months of the official hurricane season left to run, this could be a very stormy period. (photo)

Hurricane Gustav 'the end of the world' in Cuba - Trees and telephone poles littered the streets and houses were missing doors and roofs, as residents of Los Palacios, western Cuba, despaired today at Hurricane Gustav's path of destruction. The raging Category 4 cyclone tore over the island nation the previous evening after claiming at least 81 lives in its sweep across the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. Los Palacios, in the western tobacco-growing Pinar del Rio province, was one of Cuba's first municipalities to be thrashed by Gustav late yesterday. "It's the end of the world. We're going to take 20 years to recover." Some 7000 homes, most made of wood with tile roofs, in Los Palacios - a town of 17,000 - were no match for the raging storm. During the night, roof tiles launched by Gustav's gusts flew around the streets like rockets as wind and rain hammered and damaged churches, schools and poultry plants. There were reports of dozens of injuries but no immediate reports of deaths from the storm, which ploughed across the Isle of Youth and then Pinar del Rio yesterday with sustained top winds of 240km/h. "There's serious damage to all the municipality's infrastructure, the telephone network is down, they've lost rice and yucca (plantain) crops and a lot of state businesses are affected." Meanwhile, the entire western part of Cuba - including the 2.2 million people in the capital Havana - was without power, and authorities said it would be some time before electricity could be restored. Concerns had risen dramatically over the crowded and charming colonial era Old Havana, whose fragile, centuries-old buildings are prone to cave-ins after heavy rains. More than 300,000 people had been evacuated from the storm's path, particularly from coastal towns, as Cuba's communist authorities ordered most of the island's 11 million people to brace for the worst. "The 1944 cyclone was big, but this was bigger." Material damage was overwhelming across the area. The districts of Candelaria, Bahia Honda, San Cristobal and La Palma were also badly affected. In Paso Real de San Diego, WINDS REACHED A RECORD 340km/h (211 miles per hour). "The town is practically destroyed."

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
NEW ZEALAND - An amazing half a metre of rain likely in three days. Heavy rain on the ranges on the South Island West Coast ranges could total in excess of 500 mm this week. "An active front with intense northwesterly winds is expected to linger over the South Island for several days. The movement of this front is blocked by an intense anticyclone lying to the east of New Zealand. This anticyclone is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL - today, at Chatham Islands, the BAROMETRIC PRESSURE READING REACHED AN ALL TIME HIGH of 1044 hectoPascals." In southern Westland, a prolonged period of heavy rain between Tuesday and Thursday may produce in excess of 500 mm in the mountains. Besides the rain on the West Coast, people in Canterbury, Otago, and Southland are also advised that windy northwesterlies are likely to reach a strength that may damage trees, power lines and insecure structures at times today in some exposed inland places.

BANGLADESH - At least 20,000 people in northern Bangladesh have been cut off from the rest of the country after several rivers burst their banks, and news reports say a flood warning agency forecasts the situation is "likely to deteriorate." Reports say crops on 10,000 hectares of land were under water, at least 60,000 day labourers lost their jobs because of the flooding. Meanwhile, the official Flood Forecasting and Warning Center says the "overall flood situation of the country is alarming" as water levels of all three major rivers - Jamuna, Padma and Meghna - were rising simultaneously. The forecasting centre says more low-lying areas in both northern and central Bangladesh are likely to be submerged within two to three days while northeastern districts bordering India are under threat. (map)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Whales are losing blubber because ocean resources are growing scarce. The oceans are facing a shortfall of krill, a vital component of the food chain, due to climate change and the recovery of species such as humpback whales. According to a study, Antarctic minke whales shed nine per cent of their blubber over 18 years, corresponding to an annual weight loss of 17 kilograms. Blubber is vital for whales because it helps to retain heat in cold waters and store energy and nutrition. Minke whales swim to the Antarctic every summer to feed and to warm waters during the winter to breed.

The North Pole has become an "island" for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, courtesy global warming. NASA's satellite images have revealed that the melting ice has facilitated the opening up of both the north-west and north-east passages, making it possible for marine vessels to circumnavigate the Arctic ice cap. In fact, the images suggest the north-west passage opened last weekend while the final blockage on the east side of the ice cap, an area of sea ice stretching to as far as Siberia, dissolved a few days later. "The passages are open. It's an historic event. We are going to see this more and more as the years go by." The images indicate that the Arctic may have entered a "death spiral" caused by global warming. But shipping companies are smiling all the way to the bank as they plan to exploit the first simultaneous opening of the routes since the beginning of the last Ice Age 125,000 years ago. According to the Beluga Group in Germany, it will send the first ship through the north-east passage, around Russia, next year, cutting 4,000 miles off the voyage from Germany all the way to Japan.