The surprising answer is that they may be equally risky. The mountain roads are most dangerous, but he takes that into account, matching speed to the limited sight lines and watching carefully for gravel and water crossings. The freeway has its own hazards but, overall, is safer than mountain roads. However, he rides more aggressively, taking advantage of the motorcycle's maneuverability and acceleration to avoid tie-ups and cut down commute time. The track is by far the safest riding environment of the three, but he uses much more of his motorcycle's capability than he does on the street. He leans to the limit of ground clearance using all of the grip his tires can produce, accelerates at full throttle up to triple-digit speed on the straights, and brakes at the last possible moment for the next turn.

Like our hypothetical rider, we adjust our riding to the environment. When the road poses significant risk, we ride more conservatively. With less risk in the surroundings, we ride more aggressively. What remains constant, more or less, is our appetite for risk. The measure of risk we enjoy, more than boring but less than uncomfortable, governs how we ride.

This model of motorcycling risk, based on the theory of "risk compensation," has these elements:

• Tolerance: Each of us tolerates risk to a different degree. Whether innate or learned, one's personal comfort level is well established by the time he takes up riding.
  
• Perception: Each of us perceives risk differently, both overall--the general risk of motorcycling--and in detail--the risk of taking a certain turn at a certain speed for example. Our perception is affected by a lifetime of experience. Mom and Dad hammered in certain ideas about safety and danger that will last a lifetime. Others we acquire later in life (such as my personal demon, the greasy freeway off-ramp arrow).
  
• Compensation: Via a "risk thermostat" we adjust risk to keep it within our tolerance. If it's too high, we lower it. But we can also increase it if there's something to be gained and risk is still within our limit. And we can reduce it to zero by staying home when conditions don't suit us.
  

Just a semi-obvious theory, so far, but it also has practical applications for riding. If we accurately assess our own attitudes, the hazards and opportunities we face on the road, and the ways we adapt, we can get the most out of the ride while maintaining a comfortable level of risk.

Risk Tolerance

Tolerance for risk influences behavior subconsciously--we don't ponder our aversion or affinity for risk and rate ourselves on a scale of 1 to 10. But a conscious awareness of your tolerance can help you make better decisions. If you weren't the most aggressive kid on your block, you're not going to be the most aggressive on a motorcycle and won't enjoy riding with a group that's always talking about last week's crash. On the other hand, if you were an aggressive kid--and were frequently bandaged, stitched, or splinted--you should consider that the consequences of a mistake on a motorcycle can be far more serious than those of a mistake on a skateboard.

Even a more risk-tolerant rider will see his tolerance decrease as he takes on more responsibilities, and as tolerance wanes, his throttle hand will become less aggressive. After landing a plum job, getting married, or a having a child, you may find yourself looking for different roads, different riding partners, or even a different kind of motorcycle. Awareness of your changing tolerance for risk can keep you out of situations in which you learn, too late, that you're in over your head.

Know thyself.

Risk Perception

For the thermostat to keep risk at a comfortable level, we must perceive risk accurately. Misperception can actually increase risk. If you enter a blind turn assuming that the exit is debris-free, you're at greater risk than if you expect to find it gravel-strewn. Likewise, if you take up motorcycling expecting that it will be like riding a bicycle, you're at greater risk than if you see it as a demanding craft that requires training, practice, and time to master.

The finer details of motorcycling risk are, unfortunately, something that we learn only through experience. As a seasoned rider approaches an intersection where an oncoming car is waiting to turn left, he knows that it could turn in front of him, but not whether it actually will. That's a "known-unknown"--he understands the potential risk but can't know exactly how the situation will unfold. But a raw newbie might not even know of the potential danger. To him it's is an "unknown-unknown." It would be great if new riders could learn about all potential problems and turn them into known-unknowns before they mount up, but that's not going to happen. Instead, we have the other teacher: experience.

A good rider, veteran or rookie, understands that the world is far too random to anticipate completely. Adopt a circumspect attitude toward potential hazards and accept the fact that there are some you don't even know about. Allowing for unknown-unknowns will give you the time and space you need to react to the unexpected.

Risk Compensation

Just as accurate perceptions are necessary for the risk thermostat to work, so is an accurate understanding of the adjustments we make. Safety gear is one adjustment. Some riders insist on "all the gear, all the time." Others think shorts, a T-shirt, and flip-flops are all the protection they need. Still others tailor their gear to the risk they perceive in their riding environment--full leathers sometimes, textile at others, but always a helmet. Safety gear reduces risk significantly, but don't overestimate its value. Attributing more benefit to it than it actually provides will make you less safe in the same way as expecting the exit of a blind turn to be debris-free.

When increasing risk to have a little fun, consider how much you're really adding. For example, many riders don't know that doubling speed quadruples braking distance. A burst from 60mph up to 120 on a deserted country road might seem harmless enough, but if you normally scan 100 yards of roadway ahead at 60, you'll have to scan 400 yards at 120. A surface hazard or emerging side traffic inside that distance could be unavoidable and deadly.

One error some riders make is increasing risk without getting anything in return. Sport riders, myself included, don't shrink from an extra measure of risk on a good road in the right conditions. We enjoy the speed and g-forces, and the satisfaction of exercising long-practiced skills. But if we're smart, we demand a decent return of pleasure in exchange for the risk of pain. A risky pass on one car when it's obvious that a long line of slugs lies ahead yields no reward. Maintaining a fast pace through blind turns adds extreme risk, yet the reward is no greater than for the same speed through an open turn.

In his books on riding technique, Keith Code uses the analogy of a ten-dollar bill for the amount of attention a rider can pay to his situation. A good rider spends his sawbuck judiciously, focusing his attention on the most important things. The same analogy works with risk. Think of the risk that you're willing to expose yourself to as your ten bucks. Spend it wisely. Demand reward proportionate to risk, and if the price is too steep, take your business elsewhere. You won't have to ride very far to find a better deal.

copyright (c) 2005 by Dan Carter

References

Gerald J.S. Wilde, Target Risk 2. Wilde is apparently the originator of the idea Adams refers to as "risk compensation," which Wilde calls "risk homeostasis." The book is difficult to find, though. I ordered through Drivers.com. You can get the flavor of the theory in this Powerpoint presentation by Wilde (in PDF format).

David Hough, Proficient Motorcycling and More Proficient Motorcycling. Good discussion about risk in both books, including a complete chapter in the first.

Clement Salvadori, "Uncommon Sense", Cycle, April 1990. Clem describes the "seventh sense" that warns experienced riders about what I call "known-unknowns." He also concisely summarizes the point of this article: "Of course, some fine Sunday morning you might find yourself on a remote strip of twisting asphalt, and decide to see what lean angles and tire adhesion are all about. . . . But that is another story, dealing with risk, adrenalin and exuberance. And it has nothing to do with the inherent safeness of motorcycling."

Jeffrey Fracher, "Riding and Risk Taking", Motorcycle Consumer News, September 1999. Describes some personal characteristics associated with risk taking. One point Fracher makes, with which I disagree, is that we must deny the full extent of riding risk in order to enjoy motorcycling.

Ken Condon, "Risky Business", Motorcycle Consumer News, October and November 2004. Condon discusses awareness of risk, offers some examples of varying awareness and risk tolerance, and describes steps we take--or fail to take--to reduce it.

January 29, 2005: First upload.

January 30, 2005: Added Wilde to references. Design and technical mods.

February 9, 2005: Added Calvin.