STL Time Machine Report #43 - Saturday 17 April 1999 (1999-04-17) Way back in December of 1997, I posted the first STL Time Machine report, when we were scrambling to prepare our test systems. Now we've got four weeks to recertify all our mission-critical applications with their final 1999 release changes. This includes one week for a dry run test, and three one-week cycles of repetitive testing. This time we'll be testing 9/9/99, rollover, and leap day 2000. Friday we tested 9/9/99 for the first time as part of our dry run. It's been a hectic week because we had only a couple of days to re-sync the libraries with the current production code. Time Machine testing is only done with production applications. Like Gary Smith said, "If it doesn't work today, we don't give a damn what it will do in January." So what's not done yet? It looks like the LE/MVS upgrade to our third-party database will be installed by mid-May, and the final LE/MVS upgrades to the related CICS 4.1 regions will occur shortly thereafter. There's some network hardware upgrades that aren't scheduled to be finished until July, but that's when the last sandbag goes into place. I'm working on a couple of projects that will install after the lockdown, but the big bosses are handling the special "we have a note from God" paperwork. These are internal applications we use that customers don't see. The current versions have already been certified, but somebody needed some additional enhancements. The lockdown is really needed, because the schedule is getting way too tight to add new features. Every change means we have to re-test to prove we haven't added new Y2k bugs. 1999-04-09, 1999-09-09, AND PREDICTIONS April 9, 1999 passed with no problems reported in the media, and -bks- noted this prediction on http://www.ironic.com/y2k/index.html While this is generally good news, it does NOT mean there aren't any problems. It just means that whatever problems are occurring now are not big enough to make headlines, or they're being covered up as long as possible. I expect 9/9/99 to pass much the same way. I'm leaning towards the view that the real problems in financial systems will accumulate after the trigger dates. And they will be kept hidden as long as there's a chance they can be fixed without the general public noticing. Maybe the next recession won't show up until 6 to 18 months after rollover. I haven't done very well with predictions so far. We saw a 10,000 DOW before a 5000 DOW. This bull market is overdue for a correction but the timing will be a surprise. SIGNS, OMENS, PORTENTS The St. Louis Post-Dispatch had a big Y2k story in the Sunday edition, 1999-04-11. The biggest local grocery store chain is fully ready. They've been working on it since 1995. It says so right here in soybean ink on recycled paper. And they're not worried about power outages because every superstore has a generator. Well, I don't believe it. The local geekvine tells me the generator isn't big enough to run the refrigerators or the lights, it's just big enough to run the cash registers. Going to war over Kosovo is not good news. This story is going to drag on and on, and it will not have a good outcome. We still haven't seen a really big Y2k failure yet. The power grid is still up. The telephone networks are still working. Gasoline prices may be sky-high in Northern California, but it's not because of Y2k. Last Thursday, I had a company class on Myers-Briggs Personality types. Stop laughing, Cory, I needed the hours for my annual review training profile. We had a wonderful, perky facilitator who could get us in touch with our feelings and keep us from having breakdowns with our breakthroughs. It was a nice class, but the touchy-feely stuff makes me uncomfortable after a few hours. Okay, so I was the only INTP in the group. During a break, she had to listen to a roomful of non-programmers debating Y2k, testing, lockdowns, what's going to happen to the banks, is the government gonna make it or are they doomed? We scared her a little bit, and I swear I did not start this gripe session. ANOTHER PHM STORY The PHM where my buddy works finally realized there was no way the big old legacy system could finish its client/server conversion in time. Ooops. So they've decided they will remediate it instead, starting in April, 1999! Can you say D-D-D-Deathmarch? I knew you could. As of 1999-04-17, my countdown now reads: 79 days until 1999-07-05 (First Fail Date) 145 days until 1999-09-09 (Another date) 259 days until 2000-01-01 (Rollover) Previous Year 2000 Time Machine Reports are available at: http://home.att.net/~arnold.trembley/tmr.htm STANDARD DISCLAIMER: I am NOT an official corporate spokesperson. My opinions should not be held against my benevolent employer. -- Arnold Trembley http://home.att.net/~arnold.trembley/ "Y2K? Because Centuries Happen!"