From: rmartell@islandnet.com (Ron Martell) Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 Subject: Presentation to Chamber of Commerce Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1998 11:49:00 -0800 Last night I was invited to give a brief presentation (15 minutes) on Y2K to the local Chamber of Commerce. It went over fairly well and there were a number of questions asked afterwards. ***** November 17, 1998 The Year 2000 As of today there are only 409 days left until the start of the Year 2000. Is anyone here particularly concerned about that fact? Well, here are a few recent news items: 1. The RCMP has recently announced that all requests for leave have been cancelled for the period December 1999 through March 2000 because of the possible consequences of Year 2000 related computer problems. Many other police forces have announced similar measures. 2. The Canadian Armed Forces have been instructed to prepare plans to assist with emergency situations caused by disruptions in power, telephones, or government services resulting from the Year 2000 rollover. 3. The Bank of Canada has announced plans to print additional currency, in anticipation of people wanting to increase the amount of cash they keep on hand because of possible disruptions to bank and credit card systems due to Y2K.. 4. Most insurance companies have indicated that business liability insurance, business interruption insurance and personal household or tenant insurance will not apply to any incidents resulting from Year 2000 computer problems. 5. KLM airlines has reiterated their earlier announcement that they will not operate flights on or after Dec 31, 1999 unless they have absolute assurances that all facilities on the flight route and at all destinations will be fully operational. 6. Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist for the Wall Street investment firm of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell has publicly stated on many occasions that there is at least a 70% chance of a global economic recession triggered by the Year 2000 computer problems. Dr. Yardeni has in the past been recognized by the Wall Street Journal as the leading economic forecaster in the investment business. 7. Electrical companies throughout North America are making contingency plans for restarting electrical generating and distribution equipment after a continent wide blackout that is one of the possible outcomes of the Year 2000 computer problems. In the recent past, localized failures have resulted in power outages lasting several weeks. 8. A US Biomedical company, in their most recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange commission, included the following comments about the Year 2000: "Because on April 1, 1999 the company begins its fiscal year 2000, the company anticipates that if it does not upgrade its financial and management information systems in fiscal 1999, it may encounter Year 2000 compliance issues as early as April 1999". 9. Another SEC filing, this one from Chevron, included the following statement "….the company believes that it is impractical to seek to eliminate all potential Year 2000 problems before they arise." And further on in the report "Such interruptions could prevent the company from being able to manufacture and deliver refined products and chemicals to customers." At this point, it is appropriate to explain just what the Year 2000 problem, or Year 2000 computer bug, or glitch, or Y2K, is really all about. Most explanations go through the story about programming in the 1960s and 70s when computer memory was hundreds of thousands of times more expensive than it is today, and 2 digit dates were used to conserve space. This is factual and explains the origin of a large part of the problem especially for large corporations and governments where most of their computer applications originated in that era. But that is not all of it. There are Y2K problems with computer hardware, due to design defects. There are Y2K problems with the operating systems and application programs for IBM PCs, which were not even designed until 1981, long after the space saving from using 2 digit dates became totally irrelevant. There are Y2K problems that are due to shoddy programming, defects in the program logic that will not show up until the Year 2000. The one thing they have in common is that they are all triggered by the rollover from 1999 to 2000. So it is not a problem, it is a collection of problems, problems that are starting to surface even now and which will show up with increasing frequency until January 1, 2000 when they will peak, and there will be aftereffects coming to light for many months or even years after that date. I like to compare Y2K to being attacked by a massive swarm of wasps. Individually the stings can be tolerated. Even in small bunches they are survivable. But when they happen in massive numbers over a very short time period the results can be disastrous. So what does this all mean to you and your business? It means test, prepare, and make contingency plans; even if you do not really believe that you will be directly affected. Let me draw an analogy. Do you honestly believe that there is a realistic chance that your home or business will burn down in the coming year? Probably not, but do you have fire insurance? Of course you do. And why do you do this? Because you can't afford the possibility of being wrong. Well the same thinking applies to the Year 2000 computer problem. You can't afford to be wrong. Studies in the U.S. have shown that when a business loses the use of its computer facilities for 10 days or more there is a 90% business failure rate. So what do you need to check for the Year 2000? Everything. And you must take the position that it is all "Guilty until PROVEN innocent". The investigation and testing should include: - Computer hardware - Computer operating systems such as DOS, Windows, Unix or many others. - Computer application programs of all types - Computer data files, especially spreadsheets and databases but everything else as well. - External data exchanges especially EDI and remote billing services. - External dependencies including electricity and communications - Embedded systems that use microprocessors for controlling or monitoring, including telephones, security systems and any automated equipment. - Critical suppliers, including identifying alternate sources. There are a few specifics that I would like to go into more detail on. 1. Testing of PC hardware. Many people have received some very bad advice (it was even published in some magazines) about testing your PC by setting the date and time to just before midnight on Dec 31, 1999 and then turning the computer off for a few minutes and checking to see if the date advanced to January 1, 2000 when it is turned back on. This is extremely bad advice,. Bordering on criminal. There are many people desperately trying to recover essential data files after doing such a test. Many others have found that their software licenses, which they purchase on an annual basis, have expired on them. In a word, don't do it unless you have a penchant for playing Russian Roulette with all chambers loaded. There are safe ways of testing your PC, but just setting the date ahead is not one of them. 2. The "Jo Anne Effect", named for one of the regular contributors on the Year 2000 newsgroup. This is where transactions involving dates extending into the Year 2000 will start to affect computer programs prior to January 1, 2000. This is particularly true of companies that do not use a December 31 year end and therefore will begin a fiscal year sometime during 1999 that will extend into the year 2000. Problems can be anticipated immediately or at any time after the start of that fiscal year, and may not become apparent until much later. At least one major American company has already lost critical data because renewal data for dates after January 1, 2000 was purged from their systems as "stale dated" because the purging program used 2 digit years and 00 is less than 98. So this insurance company and their clients stand to miss a vast number of policy renewals because the notices will not be sent out. 3. Time and Date instabilities or the Crouch-Echlin effect (named for the co-discoverers). This is a problem where many PCs, which operate normally right up to December 31, 1999 will occasionally produce erratic date and time information after that date. This is a design flaw in the RTC or real time clock chip used in these PCs and is basically caused by the fact that reading this chip takes longer (measured in microseconds) starting Jan 1 2000 because the century flag has been set. This flaw affects a lot of 286s, many 386s and 486s and some pentiums. It is possible to test for this effect, and there is also a program which can be purchased which will correct it. 4. Legal considerations. Many legal firms, particularly American ones, are looking at Y2K as the next great gold rush. Year 2000 related lawsuits have already started and many experts anticipate that the final total will be measured in trillions of dollars. Already, legal concerns are resulting in companies keeping their Y2K information confidential and refusing to make public disclosures unless forced to do so by government regulators. Sometimes this done so as to avoid potential lawsuits, and in other cases it is done to try to attain a competitive advantage. What it has done is to make it difficult for many people to find specific Year 2000 information about certain products that they have. For example, it is virtually impossible to get a clear and unequivocal statement from any major car maker as to whether or not their on-board computers will have any Y2K related problems. Another important consideration is that the possibility of lawsuits makes it essential to maintain documentation, including correspondence, minutes of meetings, and notes regarding telephone calls, so as be able to substantiate your position as to "due diligence" and "best effort" in terms of preparing for Y2K. That covers about as much as I can of this issue this evening. I understand that there will be a question period a little later in the evening. In closing, I would like to repeat the question I posed at the beginning: There are now only 409 days left until Jan. 1, 2000. Is there anyone here who is still not concerned about that? Ron Martell Duncan B.C. Canada -- Microsoft MVP On-Line Help Computer Service http://www.islandnet.com/~rmartell/online.htm