Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast
Predicts Robust 20-Year Growth
(NYSE: BA)
said that world air cargo growth should expand at an average annual
rate of 6.2 percent during the next two decades, with
overall traffic tripling
from current levels.
The information is part of
Boeing's World Air Cargo Forecast 2004/2005,
released today at the International Air Cargo Forum and
Exposition 2004.
Boeing has published the
World Air Cargo Forecast, widely acknowledged as the
definitive industry forecast of worldwide air cargo traffic
growth and
freighter aircraft demand, as an individual report since 1986.
It's available
at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo .
"With the challenges of
the past few years, the air cargo market's
strength has been encouraging," said Marlin Dailey, vice
president, Sales,
growth last year, the market has continued to be strong
this year, with
worldwide traffic up a further 10.7 percent versus the same
period in 2003."
Overall, Boeing predicts the
world freighter fleet will increase to
3,456 airplanes from 1,766
during the 20-year forecast period, with the
greatest growth in wide body freighters such as the Boeing
747, 767, MD-11 and
the Airbus A300. This category ultimately will represent
60 percent of the
fleet, compared to 44 percent today, eventually
constituting more than
90 percent
of total freighter capacity.
Of the 2,950 freighters
predicted to join the fleet, 1,260 would be
replacements for retired aircraft and 1,590 for growth. More than
75 percent,
2,226 airplanes,
will come from passenger/combi-to-freighter
modifications,
while 724 will be new production freighters.
Boeing expects Asian air
cargo markets to continue leading the industry in
average annual growth, with the domestic Chinese and
intra-Asian markets
expanding 10.6 percent and 8.5 percent per year, respectively.
Compared to the world
average annual growth rate of 6.2 percent, North
America-Asia will average
7.2 percent and Europe-Asia will average
6.7 percent. Several of the more mature markets, such as
intra-North
and intra-Europe, will experience lower growth rates
based upon current high
traffic rates.
"This year is shaping
up to be the best year for world air cargo traffic
growth since 1997," said Tom Crabtree, regional
director, Marketing,
seeing strong growth in nearly all international trade
lanes, with the
strongest growth year-to-date in the transpacific and
Europe-Asia markets at
17 percent and 13 percent
over 2003 levels, respectively. This strong rebound
adds further credence to our forecast of strident
worldwide growth over the
long-term."
Crabtree added that Boeing
airplanes will continue comprising a
significant majority of the air cargo fleet. In addition to producing the
only complete line of new production freighters, more
than 70 percent of the
existing world jetliner fleet consists of Boeing airplanes.
SOURCE Boeing Co.
Web Site: http://www.boeing.com